Security threat assessment of an Internet security system using attack tree and vague sets.

PubMed

Chang, Kuei-Hu

2014-01-01

Security threat assessment of the Internet security system has become a greater concern in recent years because of the progress and diversification of information technology. Traditionally, the failure probabilities of bottom events of an Internet security system are treated as exact values when the failure probability of the entire system is estimated. However, security threat assessment when the malfunction data of the system's elementary event are incomplete--the traditional approach for calculating reliability--is no longer applicable. Moreover, it does not consider the failure probability of the bottom events suffered in the attack, which may bias conclusions. In order to effectively solve the problem above, this paper proposes a novel technique, integrating attack tree and vague sets for security threat assessment. For verification of the proposed approach, a numerical example of an Internet security system security threat assessment is adopted in this paper. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of security threat assessment methods.

Early events of citrus greening (Huanglongbing) disease development at the ultrastructural level.

PubMed

Folimonova, Svetlana Y; Achor, Diann S

2010-09-01

Citrus greening (Huanglongbing [HLB]) is one of the most destructive diseases of citrus worldwide. The causal agent of HLB in Florida is thought to be 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus'. Understanding of the early events in HLB infection is critical for the development of effective measures to control the disease. In this work, we conducted cytopathological studies by following the development of the disease in citrus trees graft inoculated with 'Ca. L. asiaticus'-containing material under greenhouse conditions to examine the correlation between ultrastructural changes and symptom production, with the main objective of characterizing the early events of infection. Based on our observations, one of the first degenerative changes induced upon invasion of the pathogen appears to be swelling of middle lamella between cell walls surrounding sieve elements. This anatomical aberration was often observed in samples from newly growing flushes in inoculated sweet orange and grapefruit trees at the early "presymptomatic" stage of HLB infection. Development of symptoms and their progression correlated with an increasing degree of microscopic aberrations. Remarkably, the ability to observe the bacterium in the infected tissue also correlated with the degree of the disease progression. Large numbers of bacterial cells were found in phloem sieve tubes in tissue samples from presymptomatic young flushes. In contrast, we did not observe the bacteria in highly symptomatic leaf samples, suggesting a possibility that, at more advanced stages of the disease, a major proportion of 'Ca. L. asiaticus' is present in a nonviable state. We trust that observations reported here advance our understanding of how 'Ca. L. asiaticus' causes disease. Furthermore, they may be an important aid in answering a question: when and where within an infected tree the tissue serves as a better inoculum source for acquisition and transmission of the bacterium by its psyllid vector.

The Impacts of Climate-Induced Drought on Biogeochemical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, C.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global biogeochemical cycles and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets. Recent studies indicated that forest mortality caused by rising temperature and drought from around the world have unexpectedly increased in the past decade and they collectively illustrate the vulnerability of many forested ecosystems to rapid increases in tree mortality due to warmer temperatures and more severe drought. Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services (such as albedo and carbon sequestration). Quantifying potential impacts of tree mortality on ecosystem processes requires research into mortality effects on carbon, energy, and water budgets at both site and regional levels. Despite recent progress, the uncertainty around mortality responses still limits our ability to predict the likelihood and anticipate the impacts of tree die-off. Studies are needed that explore tree death physiology for a wide variety of functional types, connect patterns of mortality with climate events, and quantify the impacts on carbon, energy, and water flux. In this presentation, I will highlight recent research progress, and identify key research needs and future challenges to predict the consequence and impacts of drought-induced large-scale forest mortality on biogeochemical cycles. I will focus on three main forest ecosystems (tropic rainforest in Amazon, temperate forest in Western USA, and boreal forest in Canada) as detailed case studies.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, Thomas

2005-01-01

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees. PMID:28545083

Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

2017-05-01

Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more confidence in the inferred transmission trees.

Effects of Temperature and Drought Stress on Physiological Processes Associated With Oak Decline

Treesearch

Theodor D. Leininger

1998-01-01

Oak decline is a term used to describe a sequence of events (decline syndrome) which is typically triggered by anabioticstress and subsequently involves other biotic and abiotic factors that cause the progressive deterioration and eventual death of a tree. Decline diseases lack a single causal agent, and in that way are different from diseases caused by one pathogen or...

Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M

2016-11-01

Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.

Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2009-09-01

Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait.) influenced by flash flood events were sampled using an increment borer. For each tree sampled, additional information were recorded including the geographical position (GPS measure), the geomorphological situation based on a detailed geomorphological map, the social position within neighbouring trees, a description of the external disturbances and information on tree diameter, tree height and the position of the cores extracted. 265 cores were collected. In the laboratory, the 265 samples were analyzed using the standard methods: surface preparation, counting of tree rings as well as measuring of ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table and TSAP 4.6 software. Increment curves of the disturbed trees were then crossdated with a reference chronology in order to correct faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples and to determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. The age of the trees in this field site is between 50 and 100 years old. In the field most of the trees were tilted (93 %) and showed exposed roots (64 %). In the laboratory, growth suppressions were detected in 165 samples. Based on the number of trees showing disturbances, the intensity of the disturbance and the spatial distribution of the trees in the field, seven well represented events were dated for the last 50 years: 2005, 2000, 1996, 1976, 1973, 1966 and 1963. The second field site was a reach of 2 km length along the Arenal River, where the stream is channelized. Here stumps from previously felled trees could be analyzed directly in the field. 100 Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vahl.) cross sections were investigated in order to date internal wounds. Different carpenter tools, sanding paper and magnifying glasses were used to count tree rings and to date the wounds in the field. In addition to the dating in the field, 22 cross sections were sampled and analyzed in the laboratory using the standard methods. The age of the trees ranges between 30 and 50 years. Based on the injuries dated in the field and in the laboratory, and based on the location of the trees, 8 main events were dated for the last 30 years: 2005, 2003, 2000, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1978. Additional results are in progress, such as the amount of rainfall responsible for the triggering of the events, estimation of the magnitude, and the influence of the channelization in the case of the Arenal River. The strength of Dendrogeomorphology in flood analysis has been demonstrated, especially in areas where the lack of historical documents, rainfall and flow data limits the use of traditional methods.

Direct evaluation of fault trees using object-oriented programming techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1989-01-01

Object-oriented programming techniques are used in an algorithm for the direct evaluation of fault trees. The algorithm combines a simple bottom-up procedure for trees without repeated events with a top-down recursive procedure for trees with repeated events. The object-oriented approach results in a dynamic modularization of the tree at each step in the reduction process. The algorithm reduces the number of recursive calls required to solve trees with repeated events and calculates intermediate results as well as the solution of the top event. The intermediate results can be reused if part of the tree is modified. An example is presented in which the results of the algorithm implemented with conventional techniques are compared to those of the object-oriented approach.

Predicting Tree Mortality Die-off Events Associated with Hotter Drought and Assessing Their Global Consequences via Ecoclimate Teleconnections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Adams, H. D.; Barnes, M.; Barron-Gafford, G.; Bradford, J. B.; Cobb, N.; Field, J. P.; Froend, R.; Fontaine, J. B.; Garcia, E.; Hardy, G. E. S. J.; Huxman, T. E.; Kala, J.; Lague, M. M.; Martinez-Yrizar, A.; Matusick, G.; Minor, D. M.; Moore, D. J.; Ng, M.; Ruthrof, K. X.; Saleska, S. R.; Stark, S. C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Villegas, J. C.; Williams, A. P.; Zou, C.

2017-12-01

Evidence that tree mortality is increasingly likely occur in extensive die-off events across the terrestrial biosphere continues to mount. The consequences of such extensive mortality events are potentially profound, not only for the locations where die-off events occur, but also for other locations that could be impacted via ecoclimate teleconnections, whereby the land surface changes associated with die-off in one location could alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect vegetation elsewhere. Here, we (1) recap the background of tree mortality as an emerging environmental issue, (2) highlight recent advances that could help us improve predictions of the vulnerability to tree mortality, including the underlying importance of hydraulic failure, the potential to develop climatic envelopes specific to tree mortality events, and consideration of the role of heat waves; and (3) initial bounding simulations that indicate the potential for tree die-off events in different locations to alter ecoclimate teleconnections. As we move toward globally coordinated carbon accounting and management, the high vulnerability to tree die-off events and the potential for such events to affect vegetation elsewhere will both need to be accounted for.

Differential ecophysiological responses and resilience to heat wave events in four co-occurring temperate tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Anirban; Han, Jimei; Cummings, Cadan; McLennan, David A.; Warren, Jeffrey M.

2018-06-01

Extreme summer heat waves are known to induce foliar and stem mortality in temperate forest ecosystems, yet our mechanistic knowledge of physiological thresholds for damage is lacking. Current spatiotemporal simulations of forest growth responses to climate change fail to explain the variability between co-occurring tree species to climate extremes, indicating a need for new model frameworks that include mechanistic understanding of trait-specific responses. In this context, using manipulative heat wave (hw) experiments we investigated ecophysiological responses and physiological recovery in four co-occurring temperate tree species of the southeastern United States including three deciduous angiosperms: southern red oak (Quercus falcata Michx.), shumard oak (Q. shumardii Buckl.) and, tulip-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) and one evergreen conifer: eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.). The objectives were to investigate inter-specific differences in ecophysiological responses to hw events to understand mechanistic differences in resilience that may be useful for future model development. Two-year-old, well-irrigated potted saplings were exposed to progressively increasing extreme hw diurnal cycles followed by a recovery cycle, with peak midday air temperature increasing from 37 °C to a maximum of 51 °C on the third day of the hw. Plants were assessed for various photosynthetic and water use responses, chlorophyll fluorescence and photosystem-II (PSII) activity, leaf temperature and foliar pigments. Intense heat caused progressive down-regulation in net photosynthesis, but the stomata remained operational, which helped cool leaves through loss of latent heat. Even though whole plant transpiration increased for all species, the rate plateaued at higher hw events that allowed leaf temperature to exceed 45 °C, well beyond the optimal range. A significant increase in non-photochemical quenching over the hw cycles was evident in all species though indications of both transient and chronic PSII damage were evident in the most heat sensitive species, pine and tulip poplar. The oaks, especially Q. falcata, showed greater thermotolerance than other species with a higher threshold for photodamage to PSII, rapid overnight recovery of photoinhibition and minimal heat-induced canopy necrosis. We conclude that these co-occurring tree species exhibit large variability in thermotolerance and in their capability to repair both transient and chronic photodamage. Our results indicate that extreme heat induced damage to PSII within the leaf chloroplasts may be a mechanistic trait that can be used to project how different species respond to extreme weather events.

Testing for Independence between Evolutionary Processes.

PubMed

Behdenna, Abdelkader; Pothier, Joël; Abby, Sophie S; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume

2016-09-01

Evolutionary events co-occurring along phylogenetic trees usually point to complex adaptive phenomena, sometimes implicating epistasis. While a number of methods have been developed to account for co-occurrence of events on the same internal or external branch of an evolutionary tree, there is a need to account for the larger diversity of possible relative positions of events in a tree. Here we propose a method to quantify to what extent two or more evolutionary events are associated on a phylogenetic tree. The method is applicable to any discrete character, like substitutions within a coding sequence or gains/losses of a biological function. Our method uses a general approach to statistically test for significant associations between events along the tree, which encompasses both events inseparable on the same branch, and events genealogically ordered on different branches. It assumes that the phylogeny and themapping of branches is known without errors. We address this problem from the statistical viewpoint by a linear algebra representation of the localization of the evolutionary events on the tree.We compute the full probability distribution of the number of paired events occurring in the same branch or in different branches of the tree, under a null model of independence where each type of event occurs at a constant rate uniformly inthephylogenetic tree. The strengths andweaknesses of themethodare assessed via simulations;we then apply the method to explore the loss of cell motility in intracellular pathogens. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Classification and Progression Based on CFS-GA and C5.0 Boost Decision Tree of TCM Zheng in Chronic Hepatitis B.

PubMed

Chen, Xiao Yu; Ma, Li Zhuang; Chu, Na; Zhou, Min; Hu, Yiyang

2013-01-01

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a serious public health problem, and Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) plays an important role in the control and treatment for CHB. In the treatment of TCM, zheng discrimination is the most important step. In this paper, an approach based on CFS-GA (Correlation based Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm) and C5.0 boost decision tree is used for zheng classification and progression in the TCM treatment of CHB. The CFS-GA performs better than the typical method of CFS. By CFS-GA, the acquired attribute subset is classified by C5.0 boost decision tree for TCM zheng classification of CHB, and C5.0 decision tree outperforms two typical decision trees of NBTree and REPTree on CFS-GA, CFS, and nonselection in comparison. Based on the critical indicators from C5.0 decision tree, important lab indicators in zheng progression are obtained by the method of stepwise discriminant analysis for expressing TCM zhengs in CHB, and alterations of the important indicators are also analyzed in zheng progression. In conclusion, all the three decision trees perform better on CFS-GA than on CFS and nonselection, and C5.0 decision tree outperforms the two typical decision trees both on attribute selection and nonselection.

Fault Tree Analysis: An Operations Research Tool for Identifying and Reducing Undesired Events in Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Bruce O.; Petersen, Paul D.

This paper explores the fault-tree analysis approach to isolating failure modes within a system. Fault tree investigates potentially undesirable events and then looks for failures in sequence that would lead to their occurring. Relationships among these events are symbolized by AND or OR logic gates, AND used when single events must coexist to…

Water from Romania's heart!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lup, M.

2012-04-01

As viewed on a map, the borders of Alba County, which lies in the centre of Transylvania, resembles the shape of a heart. The landscape is of great diversity: the plain of the river Mureş and the Apuseni Mountains. These surroundings are bestowed with three types of gold: yellow gold-Au, green gold - the forests and blue gold - water, joined with the red and brown nuances of specific flora and fauna. Every spring the Forestry Service of Alba Iulia and the association "Silvic Progress" initiate and promote events designed to raise community awareness with regard to protection of the environment. For this purpose, they have created partnerships with different types of institutions, including educational partners. The campaign, "Forest month" is one such action for preserving the treasures of our little universe, such as the area of the city of Teiuş, a town located 19 km North-East of the city of Alba Iulia. It is bordered by the valley of the Mureş River on the East, which gently flows from the Trascău Mountains, situated Northwest of the aforementioned area. It is a place of sweet waters, flora and fauna protected by tree species such as poplar trees, willow trees, species of elderberry, oak trees, fir trees, etc. One day I decided together with the students I teach to engage in an activity for the afforestation of the area. We proceeded using the following steps: Information and curiosity We began with a viewing of a short film produced by the "Silvic Progress" association regarding the mutual relationships between water and the forest, flora and fauna. We identified the benefits of water, which is rich in minerals for the trees and plants of the Apuseni Mountains. Keeping water in the vicinity of the roots requires removing weeds, without increasing evaporation or triggering soil erosion. Each species of trees have a different way of absorbing water from the environment. Annual evaporation depends on the species as well, with the spruce having the greatest value, followed by the beech and oak tree. Learning We engaged in conversations between students and the association representative on the topic of actions that benefit the environment. These talks have lead to the realization of drawings, posters and debates. The main steps in the process of tree planting were presented. Work and play We planted fir, linden, oak and beech sprigs in the schoolyard, using clean water for the plantation and growth of the trees. The results were noted in observation sheets, daily updated with the progress of each tree. With the purpose of extending the activity, I have initiated a campaign called "The relationship between water and the fir tree and the edelweiss flower", aiming to extend the area populated by the fir and the edelweiss depending on the chemical properties of water, as well as to establish a protected area.

STRIDE: Species Tree Root Inference from Gene Duplication Events.

PubMed

Emms, David M; Kelly, Steven

2017-12-01

The correct interpretation of any phylogenetic tree is dependent on that tree being correctly rooted. We present STRIDE, a fast, effective, and outgroup-free method for identification of gene duplication events and species tree root inference in large-scale molecular phylogenetic analyses. STRIDE identifies sets of well-supported in-group gene duplication events from a set of unrooted gene trees, and analyses these events to infer a probability distribution over an unrooted species tree for the location of its root. We show that STRIDE correctly identifies the root of the species tree in multiple large-scale molecular phylogenetic data sets spanning a wide range of timescales and taxonomic groups. We demonstrate that the novel probability model implemented in STRIDE can accurately represent the ambiguity in species tree root assignment for data sets where information is limited. Furthermore, application of STRIDE to outgroup-free inference of the origin of the eukaryotic tree resulted in a root probability distribution that provides additional support for leading hypotheses for the origin of the eukaryotes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

77 FR 61024 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-05

... public meeting and public comments--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event... National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event. The general plan and theme for the event... comments and suggestions on the planning of the 2012 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26...

Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Throop, David R.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2005-01-01

In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

2015-04-01

Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the public. VDAP trees evaluate probabilities of: magmatic intrusion, likelihood of eruption, magnitude of eruption, and types of associated hazardous events and their extents. In a few cases, trees have been extended to also assess and communicate vulnerability and relative risk.

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012-2015 California drought.

PubMed

Asner, Gregory P; Brodrick, Philip G; Anderson, Christopher B; Vaughn, Nicholas; Knapp, David E; Martin, Roberta E

2016-01-12

The 2012-2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satellite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California's forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

The Tunguska event in 1908: evidence from tree-ring anatomy.

PubMed

Vaganov, Evgenii A; Hughes, Malcolm K; Silkin, Pavel P; Nesvetailo, Valery D

2004-01-01

We analyzed tree rings in wood samples collected from some of the few surviving trees found close to the epicenter (within 4-5 km) of the Tunguska event that occurred on the last day of June 1908. Tree-ring growth shows a depression starting in the year after the event and continuing during a 4-5-year period. The most remarkable traces of the event were found in the rings' anatomical structure: (1) formation of "light" rings and a reduction of maximum density in 1908; (2) non-thickened tracheids (the cells that make up most of the wood volume) in the transition and latewood zones (the middle and last-formed parts of the ring, respectively); and (3) deformed tracheids, which are located on the 1908 annual ring outer boundary. In the majority of samples, normal earlywood and latewood tracheids were formed in all annual rings after 1908. The observed anomalies in wood anatomy suggest two main impacts of the Tunguska event on surviving trees--(1) defoliation and (2) direct mechanical stress on active xylem tissue. The mechanical stress needed to fell trees is less than the stress needed to cause the deformation of differentiating tracheids observed in trees close to the epicenter. In order to resolve this apparent contradiction, work is suggested on possible topographic modification of the overpressure experienced by these trees, as is an experimental test of the effects of such stresses on precisely analogous growing trees.

Inferring phylogenetic trees from the knowledge of rare evolutionary events.

PubMed

Hellmuth, Marc; Hernandez-Rosales, Maribel; Long, Yangjing; Stadler, Peter F

2018-06-01

Rare events have played an increasing role in molecular phylogenetics as potentially homoplasy-poor characters. In this contribution we analyze the phylogenetic information content from a combinatorial point of view by considering the binary relation on the set of taxa defined by the existence of a single event separating two taxa. We show that the graph-representation of this relation must be a tree. Moreover, we characterize completely the relationship between the tree of such relations and the underlying phylogenetic tree. With directed operations such as tandem-duplication-random-loss events in mind we demonstrate how non-symmetric information constrains the position of the root in the partially reconstructed phylogeny.

Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

2013-11-01

Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

Paleo-event data standards for dendrochronology

Treesearch

Elaine Kennedy Sutherland; P. Brewer; W. Gross

2017-01-01

Extreme environmental events, such as storm winds, landslides, insect infestations, and wildfire, cause loss of life, resources, and human infrastructure. Disaster riskreduction analysis can be improved with information about past frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of extreme events. Tree-ring analyses can provide such information: tree rings reflect events as...

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been donemore » in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.« less

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... trees, or to respond to natural events provided that the activity is consistent with the Wild and Scenic...

How tree roots respond to drought

PubMed Central

Brunner, Ivano; Herzog, Claude; Dawes, Melissa A.; Arend, Matthias; Sperisen, Christoph

2015-01-01

The ongoing climate change is characterized by increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. In addition, there has been an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought. Episodes of drought induce a series of interconnected effects, all of which have the potential to alter the carbon balance of forest ecosystems profoundly at different scales of plant organization and ecosystem functioning. During recent years, considerable progress has been made in the understanding of how aboveground parts of trees respond to drought and how these responses affect carbon assimilation. In contrast, processes of belowground parts are relatively underrepresented in research on climate change. In this review, we describe current knowledge about responses of tree roots to drought. Tree roots are capable of responding to drought through a variety of strategies that enable them to avoid and tolerate stress. Responses include root biomass adjustments, anatomical alterations, and physiological acclimations. The molecular mechanisms underlying these responses are characterized to some extent, and involve stress signaling and the induction of numerous genes, leading to the activation of tolerance pathways. In addition, mycorrhizas seem to play important protective roles. The current knowledge compiled in this review supports the view that tree roots are well equipped to withstand drought situations and maintain morphological and physiological functions as long as possible. Further, the reviewed literature demonstrates the important role of tree roots in the functioning of forest ecosystems and highlights the need for more research in this emerging field. PMID:26284083

Distributed Events in Sentinel: Design and Implementation of a Global Event Detector

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

local event detector and a global event detector to detect events. Global event detector in this case plays the role of a message sending/receiving than...significant in this case . The system performance will decrease with increase in the number of applications involved in global event detection. Yet from a...Figure 8: A Global event tree (2) 1. Global composite event is detected at the GED In this case , the whole global composite event tree is sent to the

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

2002-01-01

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Inferring duplications, losses, transfers and incomplete lineage sorting with nonbinary species trees.

PubMed

Stolzer, Maureen; Lai, Han; Xu, Minli; Sathaye, Deepa; Vernot, Benjamin; Durand, Dannie

2012-09-15

Gene duplication (D), transfer (T), loss (L) and incomplete lineage sorting (I) are crucial to the evolution of gene families and the emergence of novel functions. The history of these events can be inferred via comparison of gene and species trees, a process called reconciliation, yet current reconciliation algorithms model only a subset of these evolutionary processes. We present an algorithm to reconcile a binary gene tree with a nonbinary species tree under a DTLI parsimony criterion. This is the first reconciliation algorithm to capture all four evolutionary processes driving tree incongruence and the first to reconcile non-binary species trees with a transfer model. Our algorithm infers all optimal solutions and reports complete, temporally feasible event histories, giving the gene and species lineages in which each event occurred. It is fixed-parameter tractable, with polytime complexity when the maximum species outdegree is fixed. Application of our algorithms to prokaryotic and eukaryotic data show that use of an incomplete event model has substantial impact on the events inferred and resulting biological conclusions. Our algorithms have been implemented in Notung, a freely available phylogenetic reconciliation software package, available at http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~durand/Notung. mstolzer@andrew.cmu.edu.

The FTA Method And A Possibility Of Its Application In The Area Of Road Freight Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliaková, Adela

2015-06-01

The Fault Tree process utilizes logic diagrams to portray and analyse potentially hazardous events. Three basic symbols (logic gates) are adequate for diagramming any fault tree. However, additional recently developed symbols can be used to reduce the time and effort required for analysis. A fault tree is a graphical representation of the relationship between certain specific events and the ultimate undesired event (2). This paper deals to method of Fault Tree Analysis basic description and provides a practical view on possibility of application by quality improvement in road freight transport company.

Early changes in physical tree characteristics during an oak decline event in the Ozark highlands

Treesearch

Martin A. Spetich

2006-01-01

An oak decline event is severely affecting up to 120 000 ha in the Ozark National Forest of Arkansas. Results of early changes in physical tree characteristics during that event are presented. In the fall and winter of 1999 and 2000, we established research plots on a site that would become a center of severe oak decline. In August 2000, standing trees > 14 cm in...

75 FR 66125 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-27

...--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 23 day event. SUMMARY: The National Park Service is seeking public comments and suggestions on the planning of the 2010 National Christmas Tree... Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 23 day event, which opens on December 9, 2010, on the Ellipse...

The influence of tree traits and storm event characteristics on stemflow production from isolated deciduous trees in an urban park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; Schooling, J. T.

2014-12-01

Urban tree canopy processes affect the volume and biogeochemistry of inputs to the hydrological cycle in cities. We studied stemflow from 37 isolated deciduous trees in an urban park in Kamloops, British Columbia which has a semi-arid climate dominated by small precipitation events. Precipitation and stemflow were measured on an event basis from June 12, 2012 to November 3, 2013. To clarify the effect of canopy traits on stemflow thresholds, rates, yields, percent, and funneling ratios, we analyzed branch angles, bark roughness, tree size, cover, leaf size, and branch and leader counts. High branch angles promoted stemflow in all trees, while bark roughness influenced stemflow differently for single- and multi-leader trees. The association between stemflow and numerous leaders deserves further study. Columnar-form trees often partitioned a large percentage of precipitation into stemflow, with event-scale values as high as 27.9 % recorded for an Armstrong Freeman Maple (Acer x freemanii 'Armstrong'). Under growing-season conditions funneling ratios as high as 196.9 were derived for an American Beech (Fagus grandifolia) individual. Among meteorological variables, rain depth was strongly correlated with stemflow yields; intra-storm break duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall inclination, wind speed, and vapour pressure deficit also played roles. Greater stemflow was associated with leafless canopies and with rain or mixed events versus snow. Results can inform climate-sensitive selection and siting of urban trees towards integrated rainwater management. For example, previous studies suggest that the reduction in storm-water generation by urban trees is accomplished through canopy interception loss alone. However, trees that partition large quantities of precipitation canopy-drainage as stemflow to the base of their trunks, where it has the potential to infiltrate into the soil media rather than fall on impervious surfaces as throughfall, may assist in reducing stormwater flow.

Seasonal changes in depth of water uptake for encroaching trees Juniperus virginiana and Pinus ponderosa and two dominant C4 grasses in a semiarid grassland.

PubMed

Eggemeyer, Kathleen D; Awada, Tala; Harvey, F Edwin; Wedin, David A; Zhou, Xinhua; Zanner, C William

2009-02-01

We used the natural abundance of stable isotopic ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in soil (0.05-3 m depth), plant xylem and precipitation to determine the seasonal changes in sources of soil water uptake by two native encroaching woody species (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson, Juniperus virginiana L.), and two C(4) grasses (Schizachyrium scoparium (Michx.) Nash, Panicum virgatum L.), in the semiarid Sandhills grasslands of Nebraska. Grass species extracted most of their water from the upper soil profile (0.05-0.5 m). Soil water uptake from below 0.5 m depth increased under drought, but appeared to be minimal in relation to the total water use of these species. The grasses senesced in late August in response to drought conditions. In contrast to grasses, P. ponderosa and J. virginiana trees exhibited significant plasticity in sources of water uptake. In winter, tree species extracted a large fraction of their soil water from below 0.9 m depth. In spring when shallow soil water was available, tree species used water from the upper soil profile (0.05-0.5 m) and relied little on water from below 0.5 m depth. During the growing season (May-August) significant differences between the patterns of tree species water uptake emerged. Pinus ponderosa acquired a large fraction of its water from the 0.05-0.5 and 0.5-0.9 m soil profiles. Compared with P. ponderosa, J. virginiana acquired water from the 0.05-0.5 m profile during the early growing season but the amount extracted from this profile progressively declined between May and August and was mirrored by a progressive increase in the fraction taken up from 0.5-0.9 m depth, showing plasticity in tracking the general increase in soil water content within the 0.5-0.9 m profile, and being less responsive to growing season precipitation events. In September, soil water content declined to its minimum, and both tree species shifted soil water uptake to below 0.9 m. Tree transpiration rates (E) and water potentials (Psi) indicated that deep water sources did not maintain E which sharply declined in September, but played an important role in the recovery of tree Psi. Differences in sources of water uptake among these species and their ecological implications on tree-grass dynamics and soil water in semiarid environments are discussed.

The wisdom of the commons: ensemble tree classifiers for prostate cancer prognosis.

PubMed

Koziol, James A; Feng, Anne C; Jia, Zhenyu; Wang, Yipeng; Goodison, Seven; McClelland, Michael; Mercola, Dan

2009-01-01

Classification and regression trees have long been used for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Nevertheless, instability and variable selection bias, as well as overfitting, are well-known problems of tree-based methods. In this article, we investigate whether ensemble tree classifiers can ameliorate these difficulties, using data from two recent studies of radical prostatectomy in prostate cancer. Using time to progression following prostatectomy as the relevant clinical endpoint, we found that ensemble tree classifiers robustly and reproducibly identified three subgroups of patients in the two clinical datasets: non-progressors, early progressors and late progressors. Moreover, the consensus classifications were independent predictors of time to progression compared to known clinical prognostic factors.

Impacts of a water stress followed by an early frost event on beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) susceptibility to Scolytine ambrosia beetles - Research strategy and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spina, Sylvie; de Cannière, Charles; Molenberg, Jean-Marc; Vincke, Caroline; Deman, Déborah; Grégoire, Jean-Claude

2010-05-01

Climate change tends to induce more frequent abiotic and biotic extreme events, having large impacts on tree vitality. Weakened trees are then more susceptible to secondary insect outbreaks, as it happened in Belgium in the early 2000s: after an early frost event, secondary Scolytine ambrosia beetles attacks were observed on beech trees. In this study, we test if a combination of stress, i.e. a soil water deficit preceding an early frost, could render trees more attractive to beetles. An experimental study was set in autumn 2008. Two parcels of a beech forest were covered with plastic tents to induce a water stress by rain interception. The parcels were surrounded by 2-meters depth trenches to avoid water supply by streaming. Soil water content and different indicators of tree water use (sap flow, predawn leaf water potential, tree radial growth) were followed. In autumn 2010, artificial frost injuries will be inflicted to trees using dry ice. Trees attractivity for Scolytine insects, and the success of insect colonization will then be studied. The poster will focus on experiment setting and first results (impacts of soil water deficit on trees).

Genomics of Tropical Fruit Tree Crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genetic improvement of tropical fruit trees is limited when compared to progress achieved in temperate fruit trees and annual crops. Tropical fruit tree breeding programs require significant resources to develop new cultivars that are adapted to modern shipping and storage requirements. The use...

Fire suppression has led to greater drought-sensitivity in dry conifer forests: tree-ring carbon isotope evidence from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voelker, S.; Merschel, A. G.; Meinzer, F. C.; Spies, T. A.; Still, C. J.

2016-12-01

Mortality events of economically and ecologically important conifers have been widespread across Western North America over recent decades. Many of these events have been linked to "global change-type droughts" characterized by greater temperatures and evaporative demand. In parallel, since the early to mid- 20th century, increasing atmospheric [CO2] has been shown to increase the water use efficiency (WUE) of trees worldwide while conifer forests in western North America have become denser after the advent of modern fire suppression efforts. Therefore, competing hypotheses include that conifer forests have experienced 1) less drought stress due to water savings from increased WUE, 2) more drought stress due to increased demand for water in dense forests with greater leaf area index, or 3) unchanging stress because these two factors have cancelled each other out. To provide a test of these hypotheses we used inter-annual latewood carbon isotope discrimination, Δ13C, across a dry mixed-conifer forest landscape of central Oregon in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. The forests are dominated by old-growth ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) and younger and fire-intolerant grand firs (Abies grandis). Dendrochronological dating of tree establishment and fires scars established sharp declines in fire frequency and associated increases in the densities of grand fir since the early 1900s. Δ13C data for ponderosa pine and grand fir spanned 1830-2013 and 1900-2013, respectively. For our analyses these years were split into periods of high fire frequency (1830-1900), moderate fire frequency (1901-1956) and fire-exclusion (1957-2013). Comparisons of Δ13C to reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index values for the same years revealed that leaf gas exchange of both species has been more sensitive to drought during the recent fire-exclusion period compared to previous periods when surface fires kept tree densities much lower. Similar research is needed elsewhere to provide additional tests. However, this initial evidence suggests that despite CO2-driven increases in WUE, conifer forests in western North America have experienced greater drought stress and been made more susceptible to mortality events due to progressive increases in tree densities and competition for water over the past century.

EG-07CELL CYCLE SIGNATURE AND TUMOR PHYLOGENY ARE ENCODED IN THE EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF DNA METHYLATION IN GLIOMA

PubMed Central

Mazor, Tali; Pankov, Aleksandr; Johnson, Brett E.; Hong, Chibo; Bell, Robert J.A.; Smirnov, Ivan V.; Reis, Gerald F.; Phillips, Joanna J.; Barnes, Michael; Bollen, Andrew W.; Taylor, Barry S.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Olshen, Adam B.; Song, Jun S.; Berger, Mitchel S.; Chang, Susan M.; Costello, Joseph F.

2014-01-01

The clonal evolution of tumor cell populations can be reconstructed from patterns of genetic alterations. In contrast, tumor epigenetic states, including DNA methylation, are reversible and sensitive to the tumor microenvironment, presumably precluding the use of epigenetics to discover tumor phylogeny. Here we examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of DNA methylation in a clinically and genetically characterized cohort of IDH1-mutant low-grade gliomas and their patient-matched recurrences. WHO grade II gliomas are diffuse, infiltrative tumors that frequently recur and may undergo malignant progression to a higher grade with a worse prognosis. The extent to which epigenetic alterations contribute to the evolution of low-grade gliomas, including malignant progression, is unknown. While all gliomas in the cohort exhibited the hypermethylation signature associated with IDH1 mutation, low-grade gliomas that underwent malignant progression to high-grade glioblastoma (GBM) had a unique signature of DNA hypomethylation enriched for active enhancers, as well as sites of age-related hypermethylation in the brain. Genes with promoter hypomethylation and concordant transcriptional upregulation during evolution to GBM were enriched in cell cycle function, evolving in concert with genetic alterations that deregulate the G1/S cell cycle checkpoint. Despite the plasticity of tumor epigenetic states, phyloepigenetic trees robustly recapitulated phylogenetic trees derived from somatic mutations in the same patients. These findings highlight widespread co-dependency of genetic and epigenetic events throughout the clonal evolution of initial and recurrent glioma.

MIRAP, microcomputer reliability analysis program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jehee, J.N.T.

1989-01-01

A program for a microcomputer is outlined that can determine minimal cut sets from a specified fault tree logic. The speed and memory limitations of the microcomputers on which the program is implemented (Atari ST and IBM) are addressed by reducing the fault tree's size and by storing the cut set data on disk. Extensive well proven fault tree restructuring techniques, such as the identification of sibling events and of independent gate events, reduces the fault tree's size but does not alter its logic. New methods are used for the Boolean reduction of the fault tree logic. Special criteria formore » combining events in the 'AND' and 'OR' logic avoid the creation of many subsuming cut sets which all would cancel out due to existing cut sets. Figures and tables illustrates these methods. 4 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Missing rings in Pinus halepensis – the missing link to relate the tree-ring record to extreme climatic events

Treesearch

Klemen Novak; Martin de Luis; Miguel A. Saz; Luis A. Longares; Roberto Serrano-Notivoli; Josep Raventos; Katarina Cufar; Jozica Gricar; Alfredo Di Filippo; Gianluca Piovesan; Cyrille B.K. Rathgeber; Andreas Papadopoulos; Kevin T. Smith

2016-01-01

Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of...

The wisdom of the commons: ensemble tree classifiers for prostate cancer prognosis

PubMed Central

Koziol, James A.; Feng, Anne C.; Jia, Zhenyu; Wang, Yipeng; Goodison, Seven; McClelland, Michael; Mercola, Dan

2009-01-01

Motivation: Classification and regression trees have long been used for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Nevertheless, instability and variable selection bias, as well as overfitting, are well-known problems of tree-based methods. In this article, we investigate whether ensemble tree classifiers can ameliorate these difficulties, using data from two recent studies of radical prostatectomy in prostate cancer. Results: Using time to progression following prostatectomy as the relevant clinical endpoint, we found that ensemble tree classifiers robustly and reproducibly identified three subgroups of patients in the two clinical datasets: non-progressors, early progressors and late progressors. Moreover, the consensus classifications were independent predictors of time to progression compared to known clinical prognostic factors. Contact: dmercola@uci.edu PMID:18628288

Evidential Networks for Fault Tree Analysis with Imprecise Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Liu, Yu; Li, Yan-Feng

2012-06-01

Fault tree analysis (FTA), as one of the powerful tools in reliability engineering, has been widely used to enhance system quality attributes. In most fault tree analyses, precise values are adopted to represent the probabilities of occurrence of those events. Due to the lack of sufficient data or imprecision of existing data at the early stage of product design, it is often difficult to accurately estimate the failure rates of individual events or the probabilities of occurrence of the events. Therefore, such imprecision and uncertainty need to be taken into account in reliability analysis. In this paper, the evidential networks (EN) are employed to quantify and propagate the aforementioned uncertainty and imprecision in fault tree analysis. The detailed conversion processes of some logic gates to EN are described in fault tree (FT). The figures of the logic gates and the converted equivalent EN, together with the associated truth tables and the conditional belief mass tables, are also presented in this work. The new epistemic importance is proposed to describe the effect of ignorance degree of event. The fault tree of an aircraft engine damaged by oil filter plugs is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

A diagnosis system using object-oriented fault tree models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Patterson-Hine, F. A.

1990-01-01

Spaceborne computing systems must provide reliable, continuous operation for extended periods. Due to weight, power, and volume constraints, these systems must manage resources very effectively. A fault diagnosis algorithm is described which enables fast and flexible diagnoses in the dynamic distributed computing environments planned for future space missions. The algorithm uses a knowledge base that is easily changed and updated to reflect current system status. Augmented fault trees represented in an object-oriented form provide deep system knowledge that is easy to access and revise as a system changes. Given such a fault tree, a set of failure events that have occurred, and a set of failure events that have not occurred, this diagnosis system uses forward and backward chaining to propagate causal and temporal information about other failure events in the system being diagnosed. Once the system has established temporal and causal constraints, it reasons backward from heuristically selected failure events to find a set of basic failure events which are a likely cause of the occurrence of the top failure event in the fault tree. The diagnosis system has been implemented in common LISP using Flavors.

Simple street tree sampling

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; James Baldwin; Jerry Bond

2015-01-01

Information on street trees is critical for management of this important resource. Sampling of street tree populations provides an efficient means to obtain street tree population information. Long-term repeat measures of street tree samples supply additional information on street tree changes and can be used to report damages from catastrophic events. Analyses of...

Event Classification and Identification Based on the Characteristic Ellipsoid of Phasor Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jian; Diao, Ruisheng; Makarov, Yuri V.

2011-09-23

In this paper, a method to classify and identify power system events based on the characteristic ellipsoid of phasor measurement is presented. The decision tree technique is used to perform the event classification and identification. Event types, event locations and clearance times are identified by decision trees based on the indices of the characteristic ellipsoid. A sufficiently large number of transient events were simulated on the New England 10-machine 39-bus system based on different system configurations. Transient simulations taking into account different event types, clearance times and various locations are conducted to simulate phasor measurement. Bus voltage magnitudes and recordedmore » reactive and active power flows are used to build the characteristic ellipsoid. The volume, eccentricity, center and projection of the longest axis in the parameter space coordinates of the characteristic ellipsoids are used to classify and identify events. Results demonstrate that the characteristic ellipsoid and the decision tree are capable to detect the event type, location, and clearance time with very high accuracy.« less

A Black Swan and Sub-continental Scale Dynamics in Humid, Late-Holocene Broadleaf Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pederson, N.; Dyer, J.; McEwan, R.; Hessl, A. E.; Mock, C. J.; Orwig, D.; Rieder, H. E.; Cook, B. I.

2012-12-01

In humid regions with dense broadleaf-dominated forests where gap-dynamics is the prevailing disturbance regime, paleoecological evidence shows regional-scale changes in forest composition associated with climatic change. To investigate the potential for regional events in late-Holocene forests, we use tree-ring data from 76 populations covering 840,000 km2 and 5.3k tree recruitment dates spanning 1.4 million km2 in the eastern US to investigate the occurrence of simultaneous forest dynamics across a humid region. We compare regional forest dynamics with an independent set of annually-resolved tree ring record of hydroclimate to examine whether climate dynamics might drive forest dynamics in this humid region. In forests where light availability is an important limitation for tree recruitment, we document a pulse of tree recruitment during the mid- to late-1600s across the eastern US. This pulse, which can be inferred as large-scale canopy opening, occurred during an era that multiple proxies indicate as extended drought between two intense pluvial. Principal component analysis of the 76 populations indicates a step-change increase in average ring width during the late-1770s resembling a potential canopy accession event over 42,800 km2 of the southeastern US. Growth-release analysis of populations loading strongly on this eigenvector indicates severe canopy disturbance from 1775-1779 that peaked in 1776. The 1776 event follows a period with extended droughts and severe large-scale frost event. We hypothesize these climatic events lead to elevated tree mortality in the late-1770s and canopy accession for understory trees. Superposed epoch analysis reveals that spikes of elevated canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 CE are significantly associated with drought. Extreme value theory statistics indicates the 1776 event lies beyond the 99.9 quantile and nearly 7 sigmas above the 1685-1850 mean rate of disturbance. The time-series of canopy disturbance from 1685-1850 is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be considered 'heavy tailed'. Preliminary results show that disturbance events that affect >3-5% of the trees in our dataset occur approximately every 200 years. The most extreme rates (>5%) occur approximately every 500-1000 years. These statistics indicate that the 1775-1779 heavy-tail event can also be considered a 'Black Swan', the rare event that has the potential to alter a system's trajectory further than common events. Our results challenge traditional views regarding characteristic disturbance regime in humid temperate forests, and speak to the importance of punctuated climatic events in shaping forest structure for centuries. Such an understanding is critical given the potential of more frequent extreme climatic events in the future.

Decoding tree DNA

Treesearch

M. Thompson Conkle

1986-01-01

Check the laboratory reports after your next physical. You'll find information on a number of biochemical processes. Procedures like those used in the medical sciences are yielding valuable information about genetic differences among trees and tree pests. New procedures that provide ways to isolate and move genes are advancing progress in tree improvement. These...

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit, despite different methods like event trees have been used for different applications. I will define a quite general PTHA framework, based on the mixed use of logic and event trees. I will first discuss a particular class of epistemic uncertainties, i.e. those related to the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates. A systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources will be presented. Then, a particular branch of the logic tree is chosen in order to discuss just the aleatory variability of earthquake parameters, represented with an event tree. Even so, PTHA based on numerical scenarios is a too demanding computational task, particularly when probabilistic inundation maps are needed. For trying to reduce the computational burden without under-representing the source variability, the event tree is first constructed by taking care of densely (over-)sampling the earthquake parameter space, and then the earthquakes are filtered basing on their associated tsunami impact offshore, before calculating inundation maps. I'll describe this approach by means of a case study in the Mediterranean Sea, namely the PTHA for some locations of Eastern Sicily coasts and Southern Crete coast due to potential subduction earthquakes occurring on the Hellenic Arc.

Simulation-Based Evaluation of Hybridization Network Reconstruction Methods in the Presence of Incomplete Lineage Sorting

PubMed Central

Kamneva, Olga K; Rosenberg, Noah A

2017-01-01

Hybridization events generate reticulate species relationships, giving rise to species networks rather than species trees. We report a comparative study of consensus, maximum parsimony, and maximum likelihood methods of species network reconstruction using gene trees simulated assuming a known species history. We evaluate the role of the divergence time between species involved in a hybridization event, the relative contributions of the hybridizing species, and the error in gene tree estimation. When gene tree discordance is mostly due to hybridization and not due to incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), most of the methods can detect even highly skewed hybridization events between highly divergent species. For recent divergences between hybridizing species, when the influence of ILS is sufficiently high, likelihood methods outperform parsimony and consensus methods, which erroneously identify extra hybridizations. The more sophisticated likelihood methods, however, are affected by gene tree errors to a greater extent than are consensus and parsimony. PMID:28469378

Application of the MAFFT sequence alignment program to large data—reexamination of the usefulness of chained guide trees

PubMed Central

Yamada, Kazunori D.; Tomii, Kentaro; Katoh, Kazutaka

2016-01-01

Motivation: Large multiple sequence alignments (MSAs), consisting of thousands of sequences, are becoming more and more common, due to advances in sequencing technologies. The MAFFT MSA program has several options for building large MSAs, but their performances have not been sufficiently assessed yet, because realistic benchmarking of large MSAs has been difficult. Recently, such assessments have been made possible through the HomFam and ContTest benchmark protein datasets. Along with the development of these datasets, an interesting theory was proposed: chained guide trees increase the accuracy of MSAs of structurally conserved regions. This theory challenges the basis of progressive alignment methods and needs to be examined by being compared with other known methods including computationally intensive ones. Results: We used HomFam, ContTest and OXFam (an extended version of OXBench) to evaluate several methods enabled in MAFFT: (1) a progressive method with approximate guide trees, (2) a progressive method with chained guide trees, (3) a combination of an iterative refinement method and a progressive method and (4) a less approximate progressive method that uses a rigorous guide tree and consistency score. Other programs, Clustal Omega and UPP, available for large MSAs, were also included into the comparison. The effect of method 2 (chained guide trees) was positive in ContTest but negative in HomFam and OXFam. Methods 3 and 4 increased the benchmark scores more consistently than method 2 for the three datasets, suggesting that they are safer to use. Availability and Implementation: http://mafft.cbrc.jp/alignment/software/ Contact: katoh@ifrec.osaka-u.ac.jp Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27378296

Efficient Exploration of the Space of Reconciled Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

2013-01-01

Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree–species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree–species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source implementation of ALE is available from https://github.com/ssolo/ALE.git. [amalgamation; gene tree reconciliation; gene tree reconstruction; lateral gene transfer; phylogeny.] PMID:23925510

Extreme Drought Event and Shrub Invasion Reduce Oak Trees Functioning and Resilience on Water-Limited Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, M. C.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Lecomte, X.; David, T. S.; Pinto, J. G.; Bugalho, M. N.; Werner, C.

2016-12-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event in a Mediterranean oak woodland, we show that the combination of native shrub invasion and extreme drought reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during four years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined more sharply (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year (2011). Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species coupled with the projected recurrent extreme droughts will cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome, thus increasing the probability of tree mortality.

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.

PubMed

El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P

2018-01-26

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Nonbinary Tree-Based Phylogenetic Networks.

PubMed

Jetten, Laura; van Iersel, Leo

2018-01-01

Rooted phylogenetic networks are used to describe evolutionary histories that contain non-treelike evolutionary events such as hybridization and horizontal gene transfer. In some cases, such histories can be described by a phylogenetic base-tree with additional linking arcs, which can, for example, represent gene transfer events. Such phylogenetic networks are called tree-based. Here, we consider two possible generalizations of this concept to nonbinary networks, which we call tree-based and strictly-tree-based nonbinary phylogenetic networks. We give simple graph-theoretic characterizations of tree-based and strictly-tree-based nonbinary phylogenetic networks. Moreover, we show for each of these two classes that it can be decided in polynomial time whether a given network is contained in the class. Our approach also provides a new view on tree-based binary phylogenetic networks. Finally, we discuss two examples of nonbinary phylogenetic networks in biology and show how our results can be applied to them.

Stand-structural effects on Heterobasidion abietinum-related mortality following drought events in Abies pinsapo.

PubMed

Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Bowker, Matthew A; Ochoa, Victoria; Carreira, José Antonio

2010-12-01

Climate change may affect tree-pathogen interactions. This possibility has important implications for drought-prone forests, where stand dynamics and disease pathogenicity are especially sensitive to climatic stress. In addition, stand structural attributes including density-dependent tree-to-tree competition may modulate the stands' resistance to drought events and pathogen outbreaks. To assess the effects of stand structure on root-rot-related mortality after severe droughts, we focused on Heterobasidion abietinum mortality in relict Spanish stands of Abies pinsapo, a drought-sensitive fir. We compared stand attributes and tree spatial patterns in three plots with H. abietinum root-rot disease and three plots without root-rot. Point-pattern analyses were used to investigate the scale and extent of mortality patterns and to test hypotheses related to the spread of the disease. Dendrochronology was used to date the year of death and to assess the association between droughts and growth decline. We applied a structural equation modelling approach to test if tree mortality occurs more rapidly than predicted by a simple distance model when trees are subjected to high tree-to-tree competition and following drought events. Contrary to expectations of drought mortality, the effect of precipitation on the year of death was strong and negative, indicating that a period of high precipitation induced an earlier tree death. Competition intensity, related to the size and density of neighbour trees, also induced an earlier tree death. The effect of distance to the disease focus was negligible except in combination with intensive competition. Our results indicate that infected trees have decreased ability to withstand drought stress, and demonstrate that tree-to-tree competition and fungal infection act as predisposing factors of forest decline and mortality.

Are trees long-lived?

Treesearch

Kevin T. Smith

2009-01-01

Trees and tree care can capture the best of people's motivations and intentions. Trees are living memorials that help communities heal at sites of national tragedy, such as Oklahoma City and the World Trade Center. We mark the places of important historical events by the trees that grew nearby even if the original tree, such as the Charter Oak in Connecticut or...

ADAPT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, John; Jankovsky, Zachary; Metzroth, Kyle G

2018-04-04

The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified set of simulators. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which uses explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system (or other complex system) evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model various aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specifiedmore » times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at separate times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination), analysis of results, and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worst-case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

The role of hybridization in facilitating tree invasion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hybridization events can generate additional genetic diversity on which natural selection can act and at times enhance invasiveness of the species. Invasive tree species are a growing ecological concern worldwide, and some of these invasions involve hybridization events pre- or post-introduction. Th...

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riyadi, Eko H.

2014-09-01

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

RecPhyloXML - a format for reconciled gene trees.

PubMed

Duchemin, Wandrille; Gence, Guillaume; Arigon Chifolleau, Anne-Muriel; Arvestad, Lars; Bansal, Mukul S; Berry, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien; Chevenet, François; Comte, Nicolas; Davín, Adrián A; Dessimoz, Christophe; Dylus, David; Hasic, Damir; Mallo, Diego; Planel, Rémi; Posada, David; Scornavacca, Celine; Szöllosi, Gergely; Zhang, Louxin; Tannier, Éric; Daubin, Vincent

2018-05-14

A reconciliation is an annotation of the nodes of a gene tree with evolutionary events-for example, speciation, gene duplication, transfer, loss, etc-along with a mapping onto a species tree. Many algorithms and software produce or use reconciliations but often using different reconciliation formats, regarding the type of events considered or whether the species tree is dated or not. This complicates the comparison and communication between different programs. Here, we gather a consortium of software developers in gene tree species tree reconciliation to propose and endorse a format that aims to promote an integrative-albeit flexible-specification of phylogenetic reconciliations. This format, named recPhyloXML, is accompanied by several tools such as a reconciled tree visualizer and conversion utilities. http://phylariane.univ-lyon1.fr/recphyloxml/. wandrille.duchemin@univ-lyon1.fr. There is no supplementary data associated with this publication.

Analytical simulation and PROFAT II: a new methodology and a computer automated tool for fault tree analysis in chemical process industries.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

2000-07-10

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on constructing a hypothetical tree of base events (initiating events) branching into numerous other sub-events, propagating the fault and eventually leading to the top event (accident). It has been a powerful technique used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. As the systematic articulation of the fault tree is associated with assigning probabilities to each fault, the exercise is also sometimes called probabilistic risk assessment. But powerful as this technique is, it is also very cumbersome and costly, limiting its area of application. We have developed a new algorithm based on analytical simulation (named as AS-II), which makes the application of FTA simpler, quicker, and cheaper; thus opening up the possibility of its wider use in risk assessment in chemical process industries. Based on the methodology we have developed a computer-automated tool. The details are presented in this paper.

OAK-TREE : One-of-a-Kind Traffic Research and Education Experiment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

The creation and progress of OAK-TREE (One-of-a-Kind Traffic Research and Education Experiment) are chronicled. OAK-TREE is a traffic educational laboratory experiment that was developed and conducted at the University of California at Irvine (UCI) d...

Exploring the role of trees in the evolution of meander bends: The Tagliamento River, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zen, Simone; Gurnell, Angela M.; Zolezzi, Guido; Surian, Nicola

2017-07-01

To date, the role of riparian trees in the formation of scroll bars, ridges, and swales during the evolution of meandering channels has been inferred largely from field observations with support from air photographs. In situ field observations are usually limited to relatively short periods of time, whereas the evolution of these morphological features may take decades. By combining field observations of inner bank morphology and overlying riparian woodland structure with a detailed historical analysis of airborne LiDAR data, panchromatic, and color images, we reconstruct the spatial and temporal evolution of the morphology and vegetation across four meander bends of the Tagliamento River, Italy. Specifically we reveal (i) the appearance of deposited trees and elongated vegetated patches on the inner bank of meander bends following flood events; (ii) temporal progression from deposited trees, through small to larger elongated vegetated patches (pioneer islands), to their coalescence into long, linear vegetated features that eventually become absorbed into the continuous vegetation cover of the riparian forest; and (iii) a spatial correspondence between the resulting scrolls and ridge and swale topography, and tree cover development and persistence. We provide a conceptual model of the mechanisms by which vegetation can contribute to the formation of sequence of ridges and swales on the convex bank of meander bends. We discuss how these insights into the biomorphological processes that control meander bends advance can inform modeling activities that aim to describe the lateral and vertical accretion of the floodplain during the evolution of vegetated river meanders.

Large-scale wind disturbances promote tree diversity in a Central Amazon forest.

PubMed

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E; Ribeiro, Gabriel H P M; Dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m(2)) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583 ± 46 trees ha(-1)) (mean ± 99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7 ± 2.4 m(2) ha(-1)). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha(-1) and 14.9 m(2) ha(-1), respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m(2)) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

PubMed Central

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; Trumbore, Susan E.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; dos Santos, Joaquim; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-01-01

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 to 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha−1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m2 ha−1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha−1 and 14.9 m2 ha−1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level. PMID:25099118

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Large-Scale Wind Disturbances Promote Tree Diversity in a Central Amazon Forest

DOE PAGES

Marra, Daniel Magnabosco; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Higuchi, Niro; ...

2014-08-06

Canopy gaps created by wind-throw events, or blowdowns, create a complex mosaic of forest patches varying in disturbance intensity and recovery in the Central Amazon. Using field and remote sensing data, we investigated the short-term (four-year) effects of large (>2000 m 2) blowdown gaps created during a single storm event in January 2005 near Manaus, Brazil, to study (i) how forest structure and composition vary with disturbance gradients and (ii) whether tree diversity is promoted by niche differentiation related to wind-throw events at the landscape scale. In the forest area affected by the blowdown, tree mortality ranged from 0 tomore » 70%, and was highest on plateaus and slopes. Less impacted areas in the region affected by the blowdown had overlapping characteristics with a nearby unaffected forest in tree density (583±46 trees ha -1) (mean±99% Confidence Interval) and basal area (26.7±2.4 m 2 ha -1). Highly impacted areas had tree density and basal area as low as 120 trees ha -1 and 14.9 m 2 ha -1, respectively. In general, these structural measures correlated negatively with an index of tree mortality intensity derived from satellite imagery. Four years after the blowdown event, differences in size-distribution, fraction of resprouters, floristic composition and species diversity still correlated with disturbance measures such as tree mortality and gap size. Our results suggest that the gradients of wind disturbance intensity encompassed in large blowdown gaps (>2000 m 2) promote tree diversity. Specialists for particular disturbance intensities existed along the entire gradient. The existence of species or genera taking an intermediate position between undisturbed and gap specialists led to a peak of rarefied richness and diversity at intermediate disturbance levels. A diverse set of species differing widely in requirements and recruitment strategies forms the initial post-disturbance cohort, thus lending a high resilience towards wind disturbances at the community level.« less

Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Patrick J; O'Grady, Anthony P; Hayes, Keith R; Pinkard, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events. PMID:24772285

Preventing medical errors by designing benign failures.

PubMed

Grout, John R

2003-07-01

One way to successfully reduce medical errors is to design health care systems that are more resistant to the tendencies of human beings to err. One interdisciplinary approach entails creating design changes, mitigating human errors, and making human error irrelevant to outcomes. This approach is intended to facilitate the creation of benign failures, which have been called mistake-proofing devices and forcing functions elsewhere. USING FAULT TREES TO DESIGN FORCING FUNCTIONS: A fault tree is a graphical tool used to understand the relationships that either directly cause or contribute to the cause of a particular failure. A careful analysis of a fault tree enables the analyst to anticipate how the process will behave after the change. EXAMPLE OF AN APPLICATION: A scenario in which a patient is scalded while bathing can serve as an example of how multiple fault trees can be used to design forcing functions. The first fault tree shows the undesirable event--patient scalded while bathing. The second fault tree has a benign event--no water. Adding a scald valve changes the outcome from the undesirable event ("patient scalded while bathing") to the benign event ("no water") Analysis of fault trees does not ensure or guarantee that changes necessary to eliminate error actually occur. Most mistake-proofing is used to prevent simple errors and to create well-defended processes, but complex errors can also result. The utilization of mistake-proofing or forcing functions can be thought of as changing the logic of a process. Errors that formerly caused undesirable failures can be converted into the causes of benign failures. The use of fault trees can provide a variety of insights into the design of forcing functions that will improve patient safety.

Boolean logic tree of graphene-based chemical system for molecular computation and intelligent molecular search query.

PubMed

Huang, Wei Tao; Luo, Hong Qun; Li, Nian Bing

2014-05-06

The most serious, and yet unsolved, problem of constructing molecular computing devices consists in connecting all of these molecular events into a usable device. This report demonstrates the use of Boolean logic tree for analyzing the chemical event network based on graphene, organic dye, thrombin aptamer, and Fenton reaction, organizing and connecting these basic chemical events. And this chemical event network can be utilized to implement fluorescent combinatorial logic (including basic logic gates and complex integrated logic circuits) and fuzzy logic computing. On the basis of the Boolean logic tree analysis and logic computing, these basic chemical events can be considered as programmable "words" and chemical interactions as "syntax" logic rules to construct molecular search engine for performing intelligent molecular search query. Our approach is helpful in developing the advanced logic program based on molecules for application in biosensing, nanotechnology, and drug delivery.

Towards a hybrid energy efficient multi-tree-based optimized routing protocol for wireless networks.

PubMed

Mitton, Nathalie; Razafindralambo, Tahiry; Simplot-Ryl, David; Stojmenovic, Ivan

2012-12-13

This paper considers the problem of designing power efficient routing with guaranteed delivery for sensor networks with unknown geographic locations. We propose HECTOR, a hybrid energy efficient tree-based optimized routing protocol, based on two sets of virtual coordinates. One set is based on rooted tree coordinates, and the other is based on hop distances toward several landmarks. In HECTOR, the node currently holding the packet forwards it to its neighbor that optimizes ratio of power cost over distance progress with landmark coordinates, among nodes that reduce landmark coordinates and do not increase distance in tree coordinates. If such a node does not exist, then forwarding is made to the neighbor that reduces tree-based distance only and optimizes power cost over tree distance progress ratio. We theoretically prove the packet delivery and propose an extension based on the use of multiple trees. Our simulations show the superiority of our algorithm over existing alternatives while guaranteeing delivery, and only up to 30% additional power compared to centralized shortest weighted path algorithm.

Towards a Hybrid Energy Efficient Multi-Tree-Based Optimized Routing Protocol for Wireless Networks

PubMed Central

Mitton, Nathalie; Razafindralambo, Tahiry; Simplot-Ryl, David; Stojmenovic, Ivan

2012-01-01

This paper considers the problem of designing power efficient routing with guaranteed delivery for sensor networks with unknown geographic locations. We propose HECTOR, a hybrid energy efficient tree-based optimized routing protocol, based on two sets of virtual coordinates. One set is based on rooted tree coordinates, and the other is based on hop distances toward several landmarks. In HECTOR, the node currently holding the packet forwards it to its neighbor that optimizes ratio of power cost over distance progress with landmark coordinates, among nodes that reduce landmark coordinates and do not increase distance in tree coordinates. If such a node does not exist, then forwarding is made to the neighbor that reduces tree-based distance only and optimizes power cost over tree distance progress ratio. We theoretically prove the packet delivery and propose an extension based on the use of multiple trees. Our simulations show the superiority of our algorithm over existing alternatives while guaranteeing delivery, and only up to 30% additional power compared to centralized shortest weighted path algorithm. PMID:23443398

Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

2010-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

Plant water use responses along secondary forest succession during the 2015-2016 El Niño drought in Panama.

PubMed

Bretfeld, Mario; Ewers, Brent E; Hall, Jefferson S

2018-03-05

Tropical forests are increasingly being subjected to hotter, drier conditions as a result of global climate change. The effects of drought on forests along successional gradients remain poorly understood. We took advantage of the 2015-2016 El Niño event to test for differences in drought response along a successional gradient by measuring the sap flow in 76 trees, representing 42 different species, in 8-, 25- and 80-yr-old secondary forests in the 15-km 2 'Agua Salud Project' study area, located in central Panama. Average sap velocities and sapwood-specific hydraulic conductivities were highest in the youngest forest. During the dry season drought, sap velocities increased significantly in the 80-yr-old forest as a result of higher evaporative demand, but not in younger forests. The main drivers of transpiration shifted from radiation to vapor pressure deficit with progressing forest succession. Soil volumetric water content was a limiting factor only in the youngest forest during the dry season, probably as a result of less root exploration in the soil. Trees in early-successional forests displayed stronger signs of regulatory responses to the 2015-2016 El Niño drought, and the limiting physiological processes for transpiration shifted from operating at the plant-soil interface to the plant-atmosphere interface with progressing forest succession. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

PubMed Central

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-01-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs. PMID:26461978

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates.

PubMed

Caldeira, Maria C; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S; Pinto, Joaquim G; Bugalho, Miguel N; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-13

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria C.; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa S.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Werner, Christiane

2015-10-01

Extreme drought events and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning and alter ecosystem-atmosphere exchange. Invaders are expanding worldwide and extreme drought events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. However, very little is known on how these drivers may interact to affect the functioning and resilience of ecosystems to extreme events. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that native shrub invasion and extreme drought synergistically reduced ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of key-stone oak tree species. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub Cistus ladanifer, which further increased after the extreme drought event. Meanwhile, the transpiration of key-stone tree species decreased, indicating a competitive advantage in favour of the invader. Our results suggest that in Mediterranean-type climates the invasion of water spending species and projected recurrent extreme drought events may synergistically cause critical drought tolerance thresholds of key-stone tree species to be surpassed, corroborating observed higher tree mortality in the invaded ecosystems. Ultimately, this may shift seasonally water limited ecosystems into less desirable alternative states dominated by water spending invasive shrubs.

How Hierarchical Topics Evolve in Large Text Corpora.

PubMed

Cui, Weiwei; Liu, Shixia; Wu, Zhuofeng; Wei, Hao

2014-12-01

Using a sequence of topic trees to organize documents is a popular way to represent hierarchical and evolving topics in text corpora. However, following evolving topics in the context of topic trees remains difficult for users. To address this issue, we present an interactive visual text analysis approach to allow users to progressively explore and analyze the complex evolutionary patterns of hierarchical topics. The key idea behind our approach is to exploit a tree cut to approximate each tree and allow users to interactively modify the tree cuts based on their interests. In particular, we propose an incremental evolutionary tree cut algorithm with the goal of balancing 1) the fitness of each tree cut and the smoothness between adjacent tree cuts; 2) the historical and new information related to user interests. A time-based visualization is designed to illustrate the evolving topics over time. To preserve the mental map, we develop a stable layout algorithm. As a result, our approach can quickly guide users to progressively gain profound insights into evolving hierarchical topics. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method on Amazon's Mechanical Turk and real-world news data. The results show that users are able to successfully analyze evolving topics in text data.

A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riyadi, Eko H., E-mail: e.riyadi@bapeten.go.id

2014-09-30

Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logicmore » model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.« less

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

PubMed

Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

2014-12-01

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

1992-01-01

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Using single cell sequencing data to model the evolutionary history of a tumor.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung In; Simon, Richard

2014-01-24

The introduction of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology has made it possible to detect genomic alterations within tumor cells on a large scale. However, most applications of NGS show the genetic content of mixtures of cells. Recently developed single cell sequencing technology can identify variation within a single cell. Characterization of multiple samples from a tumor using single cell sequencing can potentially provide information on the evolutionary history of that tumor. This may facilitate understanding how key mutations accumulate and evolve in lineages to form a heterogeneous tumor. We provide a computational method to infer an evolutionary mutation tree based on single cell sequencing data. Our approach differs from traditional phylogenetic tree approaches in that our mutation tree directly describes temporal order relationships among mutation sites. Our method also accommodates sequencing errors. Furthermore, we provide a method for estimating the proportion of time from the earliest mutation event of the sample to the most recent common ancestor of the sample of cells. Finally, we discuss current limitations on modeling with single cell sequencing data and possible improvements under those limitations. Inferring the temporal ordering of mutational sites using current single cell sequencing data is a challenge. Our proposed method may help elucidate relationships among key mutations and their role in tumor progression.

Selective Tree-ring Models: A Novel Method for Reconstructing Streamflow Using Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foard, M. B.; Nelson, A. S.; Harley, G. L.

2017-12-01

Surface water is among the most instrumental and vulnerable resources in the Northwest United States (NW). Recent observations show that overall water quantity is declining in streams across the region, while extreme flooding events occur more frequently. Historical streamflow models inform probabilities of extreme flow events (flood or drought) by describing frequency and duration of past events. There are numerous examples of tree-rings being utilized to reconstruct streamflow in the NW. These models confirm that tree-rings are highly accurate at predicting streamflow, however there are many nuances that limit their applicability through time and space. For example, most models predict streamflow from hydrologically altered rivers (e.g. dammed, channelized) which may hinder our ability to predict natural prehistoric flow. They also have a tendency to over/under-predict extreme flow events. Moreover, they often neglect to capture the changing relationships between tree-growth and streamflow over time and space. To address these limitations, we utilized national tree-ring and streamflow archives to investigate the relationships between the growth of multiple coniferous species and free-flowing streams across the NW using novel species-and site-specific streamflow models - a term we coined"selective tree-ring models." Correlation function analysis and regression modeling were used to evaluate the strengths and directions of the flow-growth relationships. Species with significant relationships in the same direction were identified as strong candidates for selective models. Temporal and spatial patterns of these relationships were examined using running correlations and inverse distance weighting interpolation, respectively. Our early results indicate that (1) species adapted to extreme climates (e.g. hot-dry, cold-wet) exhibit the most consistent relationships across space, (2) these relationships weaken in locations with mild climatic variability, and (3) some species appear to be strong candidates for predicting high flow events, while others may be better at pridicting drought. These findings indicate that selective models may outperform traditional models when reconstructing distinctive aspects of streamflow.

Triggered surface slips in the Coachella Valley area associated with the 1992 Joshua Tree and Landers, California, Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rymer, M.J.

2000-01-01

The Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (<3 m thick) veneer of alluvium in contrast to earlier documented triggered slip events in this region, all in the deep basins of the Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right-lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Measured dextral displacement values ranged from 1 to 20 mm, with the largest amounts found in the Mecca Hills where large slip values have been measured following past triggered-slip events.

The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

2015-01-01

This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

Reconciliation of Gene and Species Trees

PubMed Central

Rusin, L. Y.; Lyubetskaya, E. V.; Gorbunov, K. Y.; Lyubetsky, V. A.

2014-01-01

The first part of the paper briefly overviews the problem of gene and species trees reconciliation with the focus on defining and algorithmic construction of the evolutionary scenario. Basic ideas are discussed for the aspects of mapping definitions, costs of the mapping and evolutionary scenario, imposing time scales on a scenario, incorporating horizontal gene transfers, binarization and reconciliation of polytomous trees, and construction of species trees and scenarios. The review does not intend to cover the vast diversity of literature published on these subjects. Instead, the authors strived to overview the problem of the evolutionary scenario as a central concept in many areas of evolutionary research. The second part provides detailed mathematical proofs for the solutions of two problems: (i) inferring a gene evolution along a species tree accounting for various types of evolutionary events and (ii) trees reconciliation into a single species tree when only gene duplications and losses are allowed. All proposed algorithms have a cubic time complexity and are mathematically proved to find exact solutions. Solving algorithms for problem (ii) can be naturally extended to incorporate horizontal transfers, other evolutionary events, and time scales on the species tree. PMID:24800245

The influence of tree morphology on stemflow generation in a tropical lowland rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uber, Magdalena; Levia, Delphis F.; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

2014-05-01

Even though stemflow usually accounts for only a small proportion of rainfall, it is an important point source of water and ion input to forest floors and may, for instance, influence soil moisture patterns and groundwater recharge. Previous studies showed that the generation of stemflow depends on a multitude of meteorological and biological factors. Interestingly, despite the tremendous progress in stemflow research during the last decades it is still largely unknown which combination of tree characteristics determines stemflow volumes in species-rich tropical forests. This knowledge gap motivated us to analyse the influence of tree characteristics on stemflow volumes in a 1 hectare plot located in a Panamanian lowland rainforest. Our study comprised stemflow measurements in six randomly selected 10 m by 10 m subplots. In each subplot we measured stemflow of all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) > 5 cm on an event-basis for a period of six weeks. Additionally, we identified all tree species and determined a set of tree characteristics including DBH, crown diameter, bark roughness, bark furrowing, epiphyte coverage, tree architecture, stem inclination, and crown position. During the sampling period, we collected 985 L of stemflow (0.98 % of total rainfall). Based on regression analyses and comparisons among plant functional groups we show that palms were most efficient in yielding stemflow due to their large inclined fronds. Trees with large emergent crowns also produced relatively large amounts of stemflow. Due to their abundance, understory trees contribute much to stemflow yield not on individual but on the plot scale. Even though parameters such as crown diameter, branch inclination and position of the crown influence stemflow generation to some extent, these parameters explain less than 30 % of the variation in stemflow volumes. In contrast to published results from temperate forests, we did not detect a negative correlation between bark roughness and stemflow volume. This is because other parameters such as crown diameter obscured this relationship. Due to multicollinearity and poor correlations between single tree characteristics with stemflow volume, an assessment of stemflow volumes based on forest characteristics remains cumbersome in highly diverse ecosystems. Instead of relying on regression relationships, we therefore advocate a total sampling of trees in several plots to determine stand-scale stemflow yield in tropical forests.

Extreme drought event and shrub invasion combine to reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Maria; Lecomte, Xavier; David, Teresa; Pinto, Joaquim; Bugalho, Miguel; Werner, Christiane

2016-04-01

Extreme droughts and plant invasions are major drivers of global change that can critically affect ecosystem functioning. Shrub encroachment is increasing in many regions worldwide and extreme events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity, namely in the Mediterranean region. Nevertheless, little is known about how these drivers may interact and affect ecosystem functioning and resilience to extreme droughts. Using a manipulative shrub removal experiment and the co-occurrence of an extreme drought event (2011/2012) in a Mediterranean woodland, we show that the native shrub invasion and extreme drought combined to reduce ecosystem transpiration and the resilience of the key-stone oak tree species. We established six 25 x 25 m paired plots in a shrub (Cistus ladanifer L.) encroached Mediterranean cork-oak (Quercus suber L.) woodland. We measured sapflow and pre-dawn leaf water potential of trees and shrubs and soil water content in all plots during three years. We determined the resilience of tree transpiration to evaluate to what extent trees recovered from the extreme drought event. From February to November 2011 we conducted baseline measurements for plot comparison. In November 2011 all the shrubs from one of all the paired plots were cut and removed. Ecosystem transpiration was dominated by the water use of the invasive shrub, which further increased after the extreme drought. Simultaneously, tree transpiration in invaded plots declined much stronger (67 ± 13 %) than in plots cleared from shrubs (31 ± 11%) relative to the pre-drought year. Trees in invaded plots were not able to recover in the following wetter year showing lower resilience to the extreme drought event. Our results imply that in Mediterranean-type of climates invasion by water spending species can combine with projected recurrent extreme droughts causing critical drought tolerance thresholds of trees to be overcome increasing the probability of tree mortality (Caldeira et.al. 2015). Caldeira M.C., Lecomte X., David T.S., Pinto J.G., Bugalho M.N. & Werner C. (2015). Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Scientific Reports, 5, 15110.

GIGA: a simple, efficient algorithm for gene tree inference in the genomic age

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Phylogenetic relationships between genes are not only of theoretical interest: they enable us to learn about human genes through the experimental work on their relatives in numerous model organisms from bacteria to fruit flies and mice. Yet the most commonly used computational algorithms for reconstructing gene trees can be inaccurate for numerous reasons, both algorithmic and biological. Additional information beyond gene sequence data has been shown to improve the accuracy of reconstructions, though at great computational cost. Results We describe a simple, fast algorithm for inferring gene phylogenies, which makes use of information that was not available prior to the genomic age: namely, a reliable species tree spanning much of the tree of life, and knowledge of the complete complement of genes in a species' genome. The algorithm, called GIGA, constructs trees agglomeratively from a distance matrix representation of sequences, using simple rules to incorporate this genomic age information. GIGA makes use of a novel conceptualization of gene trees as being composed of orthologous subtrees (containing only speciation events), which are joined by other evolutionary events such as gene duplication or horizontal gene transfer. An important innovation in GIGA is that, at every step in the agglomeration process, the tree is interpreted/reinterpreted in terms of the evolutionary events that created it. Remarkably, GIGA performs well even when using a very simple distance metric (pairwise sequence differences) and no distance averaging over clades during the tree construction process. Conclusions GIGA is efficient, allowing phylogenetic reconstruction of very large gene families and determination of orthologs on a large scale. It is exceptionally robust to adding more gene sequences, opening up the possibility of creating stable identifiers for referring to not only extant genes, but also their common ancestors. We compared trees produced by GIGA to those in the TreeFam database, and they were very similar in general, with most differences likely due to poor alignment quality. However, some remaining differences are algorithmic, and can be explained by the fact that GIGA tends to put a larger emphasis on minimizing gene duplication and deletion events. PMID:20534164

GIGA: a simple, efficient algorithm for gene tree inference in the genomic age.

PubMed

Thomas, Paul D

2010-06-09

Phylogenetic relationships between genes are not only of theoretical interest: they enable us to learn about human genes through the experimental work on their relatives in numerous model organisms from bacteria to fruit flies and mice. Yet the most commonly used computational algorithms for reconstructing gene trees can be inaccurate for numerous reasons, both algorithmic and biological. Additional information beyond gene sequence data has been shown to improve the accuracy of reconstructions, though at great computational cost. We describe a simple, fast algorithm for inferring gene phylogenies, which makes use of information that was not available prior to the genomic age: namely, a reliable species tree spanning much of the tree of life, and knowledge of the complete complement of genes in a species' genome. The algorithm, called GIGA, constructs trees agglomeratively from a distance matrix representation of sequences, using simple rules to incorporate this genomic age information. GIGA makes use of a novel conceptualization of gene trees as being composed of orthologous subtrees (containing only speciation events), which are joined by other evolutionary events such as gene duplication or horizontal gene transfer. An important innovation in GIGA is that, at every step in the agglomeration process, the tree is interpreted/reinterpreted in terms of the evolutionary events that created it. Remarkably, GIGA performs well even when using a very simple distance metric (pairwise sequence differences) and no distance averaging over clades during the tree construction process. GIGA is efficient, allowing phylogenetic reconstruction of very large gene families and determination of orthologs on a large scale. It is exceptionally robust to adding more gene sequences, opening up the possibility of creating stable identifiers for referring to not only extant genes, but also their common ancestors. We compared trees produced by GIGA to those in the TreeFam database, and they were very similar in general, with most differences likely due to poor alignment quality. However, some remaining differences are algorithmic, and can be explained by the fact that GIGA tends to put a larger emphasis on minimizing gene duplication and deletion events.

Variation in resistance of hard pines to mouse damage

Treesearch

Frank S., Jr. Santamour; Frank E. Cunningham; Richard J. Peterson

1963-01-01

The most rapid progress in forest-tree improvement will be attained through artificial reforestation with superior genotypes. These trees may be native species, exotics, or hybrid combinations involving several species of diverse origins. Any tree planting creates an artificial situation, which is made even more artificial by the introduction of non-native types. In...

Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1988-01-01

Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

2014-12-01

Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

Transgenic American chestnuts show enhanced blight resistance and transmit the trait to T1 progeny.

PubMed

Newhouse, Andrew E; Polin-McGuigan, Linda D; Baier, Kathleen A; Valletta, Kristia E R; Rottmann, William H; Tschaplinski, Timothy J; Maynard, Charles A; Powell, William A

2014-11-01

American chestnut (Castanea dentata) is a classic example of a native keystone species that was nearly eradicated by an introduced fungal pathogen. This report describes progress made toward producing a fully American chestnut tree with enhanced resistance to the blight fungus (Cryphonectria parasitica). The transgenic American chestnut 'Darling4,' produced through an Agrobacterium co-transformation procedure to express a wheat oxalate oxidase gene driven by the VspB vascular promoter, shows enhanced blight resistance at a level intermediate between susceptible American chestnut and resistant Chinese chestnut (Castanea mollissima). Enhanced resistance was identified first with a leaf-inoculation assay using young chestnuts grown indoors, and confirmed with traditional stem inoculations on 3- and 4-year-old field-grown trees. Pollen from 'Darling4' and other events was used to produce transgenic T1 seedlings, which also expressed the enhanced resistance trait in leaf assays. Outcrossed transgenic seedlings have several advantages over tissue-cultured plantlets, including increased genetic diversity and faster initial growth. This represents a major step toward the restoration of the majestic American chestnut. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survey of critical failure events in on-chip interconnect by fault tree analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokogawa, Shinji; Kunii, Kyousuke

2018-07-01

In this paper, a framework based on reliability physics is proposed for adopting fault tree analysis (FTA) to the on-chip interconnect system of a semiconductor. By integrating expert knowledge and experience regarding the possibilities of failure on basic events, critical issues of on-chip interconnect reliability will be evaluated by FTA. In particular, FTA is used to identify the minimal cut sets with high risk priority. Critical events affecting the on-chip interconnect reliability are identified and discussed from the viewpoint of long-term reliability assessment. The moisture impact is evaluated as an external event.

Vegetation optical depth measured by microwave radiometry as an indicator of tree mortality risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, K.; Anderegg, W.; Sala, A.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Increased drought-related tree mortality has been observed across several regions in recent years. Vast spatial extent and high temporal variability makes field monitoring of tree mortality cumbersome and expensive. With global coverage and high temporal revisit, satellite remote sensing offers an unprecedented tool to monitor terrestrial ecosystems and identify areas at risk of large drought-driven tree mortality events. To date, studies that use remote sensing data to monitor tree mortality have focused on external climatic thresholds such as temperature and evapotranspiration. However, this approach fails to consider internal water stress in vegetation - which can vary across trees even for similar climatic conditions due to differences in hydraulic behavior, soil type, etc - and may therefore be a poor basis for measuring mortality events. There is a consensus that xylem hydraulic failure often precedes drought-induced mortality, suggesting depleted canopy water content shortly before onset of mortality. Observations of vegetation optical depth (VOD) derived from passive microwave are proportional to canopy water content. In this study, we propose to use variations in VOD as an indicator of potential tree mortality. Since VOD accounts for intrinsic water stress undergone by vegetation, it is expected to be more accurate than external climatic stress indicators. Analysis of tree mortality events in California, USA observed by airborne detection shows a consistent relationship between mortality and the proposed VOD metric. Although this approach is limited by the kilometer-scale resolution of passive microwave radiometry, our results nevertheless demonstrate that microwave-derived estimates of vegetation water content can be used to study drought-driven tree mortality, and may be a valuable tool for mortality predictions if they can be combined with higher-resolution variables.

Fault-Tree Compiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Boerschlein, David P.

1993-01-01

Fault-Tree Compiler (FTC) program, is software tool used to calculate probability of top event in fault tree. Gates of five different types allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language easy to understand and use. In addition, program supports hierarchical fault-tree definition feature, which simplifies tree-description process and reduces execution time. Set of programs created forming basis for reliability-analysis workstation: SURE, ASSIST, PAWS/STEM, and FTC fault-tree tool (LAR-14586). Written in PASCAL, ANSI-compliant C language, and FORTRAN 77. Other versions available upon request.

Fault-Tree Compiler Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

1992-01-01

FTC, Fault-Tree Compiler program, is reliability-analysis software tool used to calculate probability of top event of fault tree. Five different types of gates allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language of FTC easy to understand and use. Program supports hierarchical fault-tree-definition feature simplifying process of description of tree and reduces execution time. Solution technique implemented in FORTRAN, and user interface in Pascal. Written to run on DEC VAX computer operating under VMS operating system.

Banking on the future: progress, challenges and opportunities for the genetic conservation of forest trees

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; Robert M. Jetton; Andrew Bower; Douglass F. Jacobs; Gary Man; Valerie D. Hipkins; Murphy Westwood

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity provides the essential basis for the adaptation and resilience of tree species to environmental stress and change. The genetic conservation of tree species is an urgent global necessity as forest conversion and fragmentation continue apace, damaging insects and pathogens are transported between continents, and climate change alters local habitat...

Risk Analysis of Return Support Material on Gas Compressor Platform Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Aulia, B. U.; Khakim, M. L. N.; Rosyid, Daniel M.

2017-07-01

On a fixed platforms project are not only carried out by a contractor, but two or more contractors. Cooperation in the construction of fixed platforms is often not according to plan, it is caused by several factors. It takes a good synergy between the contractor to avoid miss communication may cause problems on the project. For the example is about support material (sea fastening, skid shoe and shipping support) used in the process of sending a jacket structure to operation place often does not return to the contractor. It needs a systematic method to overcome the problem of support material. This paper analyses the causes and effects of GAS Compressor Platform that support material is not return, using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). From fault tree analysis, the probability of top event is 0.7783. From event tree analysis diagram, the contractors lose Rp.350.000.000, - to Rp.10.000.000.000, -.

Priority Queues for Computer Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

The present invention is embodied in new priority queue data structures for event list management of computer simulations, and includes a new priority queue data structure and an improved event horizon applied to priority queue data structures. ne new priority queue data structure is a Qheap and is made out of linked lists for robust, fast, reliable, and stable event list management and uses a temporary unsorted list to store all items until one of the items is needed. Then the list is sorted, next, the highest priority item is removed, and then the rest of the list is inserted in the Qheap. Also, an event horizon is applied to binary tree and splay tree priority queue data structures to form the improved event horizon for event management.

Try Fault Tree Analysis, a Step-by-Step Way to Improve Organization Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitzer, Dean

1980-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis, a systems safety engineering technology used to analyze organizational systems, is described. Explains the use of logic gates to represent the relationship between failure events, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and effective use of Fault Tree Analysis. (CT)

Pedologic and geomorphic impacts of a tornado blowdown event in a mixed pine-hardwood forest

Treesearch

Jonathan D. Phillips; Daniel A. Marion; Alice V. Turkington

2008-01-01

Biomechanical effects of trees on soils and surface processes may be extensive in forest environments. Two blowdown sites caused by a November 2005 tornado in the Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas allowed a case study examination of bioturbation associated with a specific forest blowdown event, as well as detailed examination of relationships between tree root systems...

A fast bottom-up algorithm for computing the cut sets of noncoherent fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corynen, G.C.

1987-11-01

An efficient procedure for finding the cut sets of large fault trees has been developed. Designed to address coherent or noncoherent systems, dependent events, shared or common-cause events, the method - called SHORTCUT - is based on a fast algorithm for transforming a noncoherent tree into a quasi-coherent tree (COHERE), and on a new algorithm for reducing cut sets (SUBSET). To assure sufficient clarity and precision, the procedure is discussed in the language of simple sets, which is also developed in this report. Although the new method has not yet been fully implemented on the computer, we report theoretical worst-casemore » estimates of its computational complexity. 12 refs., 10 figs.« less

Derivation of Failure Rates and Probability of Failures for the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vitali, Roberto; Lutomski, Michael G.

2004-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) Program uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as part of its Continuous Risk Management Process. It is used as a decision and management support tool to not only quantify risk for specific conditions, but more importantly comparing different operational and management options to determine the lowest risk option and provide rationale for management decisions. This paper presents the derivation of the probability distributions used to quantify the failure rates and the probability of failures of the basic events employed in the PRA model of the ISS. The paper will show how a Bayesian approach was used with different sources of data including the actual ISS on orbit failures to enhance the confidence in results of the PRA. As time progresses and more meaningful data is gathered from on orbit failures, an increasingly accurate failure rate probability distribution for the basic events of the ISS PRA model can be obtained. The ISS PRA has been developed by mapping the ISS critical systems such as propulsion, thermal control, or power generation into event sequences diagrams and fault trees. The lowest level of indenture of the fault trees was the orbital replacement units (ORU). The ORU level was chosen consistently with the level of statistically meaningful data that could be obtained from the aerospace industry and from the experts in the field. For example, data was gathered for the solenoid valves present in the propulsion system of the ISS. However valves themselves are composed of parts and the individual failure of these parts was not accounted for in the PRA model. In other words the failure of a spring within a valve was considered a failure of the valve itself.

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Root Hydraulics and Root Sap Flow in a Panamanian Low-Land Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.; Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.

2017-12-01

In the tropics, trees are subjected to increasingly frequent and severe droughts driven by climate change. Given the hydrological benefits associated with tropical forests, such as reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events and increased base flow during drought periods ("sponge-effect"), the underlying plant-hydrological processes at the soil-plant interface have become the focus of recent research efforts. In Panama, the 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record, thus providing an excellent opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical forests. Starting in 2015, we instrumented 76 trees with heat-ratio sap flow sensors in regrowing secondary forest (8-, 25-, and 80-year old stands) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in central Panama. Of those trees, 16 individuals were instrumented with additional sap flow sensors on three roots each. Data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station. Rooting depth and root density were assessed in eight 2×2×2 m soil pits. In April 2017, we measured hydraulic conductance and vulnerability to cavitation of eight species using the centrifuge technique. Trees in 8-year old forest limited transpiration during the drought whereas no such limitation was evident in trees of the 80-year old forest. Root sap flow data show seasonal shifts in water uptake between individual roots of a given tree, with sap flow decreasing in some roots while simultaneously increasing in other roots during the wet-dry season transition. Roots followed a typical log distribution along the profile, with overall root densities of 46, 43, and 52 roots m-2 in the 8-, 25-, and 80-yo stand, respectively. Roots were found up to 200 cm depth in all forests, with roots >5 cm occurring at lower depths (>125 cm) only in 25- and 80-year old forests. Maximum hydraulic conductances ranged from 2.3 to 48.4 cm3 m-2 s-1. Vulnerability to hydraulic failure was highly variable between species, ranging from hydraulic failure at 1 MPa to resilience up to 12 MPa. Our data suggest increasing resilience to drought with progressing forest age, likely due to access to deeper soil water and favorable hydrological soil properties in older forests.

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

2016-07-01

Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

The fundamental theorem of asset pricing under default and collateral in finite discrete time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Samaniego, Borys; Orrillo, Jaime

2006-08-01

We consider a financial market where time and uncertainty are modeled by a finite event-tree. The event-tree has a length of N, a unique initial node at the initial date, and a continuum of branches at each node of the tree. Prices and returns of J assets are modeled, respectively, by a R2JxR2J-valued stochastic process . In this framework we prove a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing which applies to defaultable securities backed by exogenous collateral suffering a contingent linear depreciation.

Drought, Frost, Rain and Sunshine. Four Years of Sap Flow Measurements for One of the World's Largest Conifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macinnis-Ng, C.; Taylor, D. T.; Kaplick, J.; Clearwater, M.

2015-12-01

Amongst the largest and longest lived conifers in the world, the endemic New Zealand kauri, Agathis australis, provides a proxy-climate record dating back 4000 y. Tree-ring widths provide a strong indicator of the occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. We are measuring physiological processes, including carbon uptake and loss, leaf-scale gas exchange and sap flow together with meteorological data to explore the mechanisms of the climate response of this iconic and culturally significant species. In this continuous 15 min time interval sap flow dataset spanning four years, we have captured very wet and very dry summer periods. Winter flow rates peaked lower than summer flow rates and winter flow also started later and finished earlier in the day, resulting in less water use. Larger, canopy dominant trees (DBH up to 176 cm) had large sapwood area (sapwood depth up to 18 cm) and faster flow rates and therefore dominated stand water use. During dry periods, smaller trees (DBH 20-80 cm) were more responsive to dry soils than larger trees, suggesting access to deeper soil water stores. Leaf-scale gas exchange rates were low with very low stomatal conductance values reflecting known vulnerability to xylem embolism. Night-time refilling of sapwood was particularly evident during the summer drought with evidence that refilling was incomplete as the drought progressed. Photosynthetically active radiation and vapour pressure deficit are strongly correlated with sap flow across all seasons, a promising indicator for future modelling work on this dataset. Water saving strategies and stand-scale water budgets are discussed.

Personalized Risk Prediction in Clinical Oncology Research: Applications and Practical Issues Using Survival Trees and Random Forests.

PubMed

Hu, Chen; Steingrimsson, Jon Arni

2018-01-01

A crucial component of making individualized treatment decisions is to accurately predict each patient's disease risk. In clinical oncology, disease risks are often measured through time-to-event data, such as overall survival and progression/recurrence-free survival, and are often subject to censoring. Risk prediction models based on recursive partitioning methods are becoming increasingly popular largely due to their ability to handle nonlinear relationships, higher-order interactions, and/or high-dimensional covariates. The most popular recursive partitioning methods are versions of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, which builds a simple interpretable tree structured model. With the aim of increasing prediction accuracy, the random forest algorithm averages multiple CART trees, creating a flexible risk prediction model. Risk prediction models used in clinical oncology commonly use both traditional demographic and tumor pathological factors as well as high-dimensional genetic markers and treatment parameters from multimodality treatments. In this article, we describe the most commonly used extensions of the CART and random forest algorithms to right-censored outcomes. We focus on how they differ from the methods for noncensored outcomes, and how the different splitting rules and methods for cost-complexity pruning impact these algorithms. We demonstrate these algorithms by analyzing a randomized Phase III clinical trial of breast cancer. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare the prediction accuracy of survival forests with more commonly used regression models under various scenarios. These simulation studies aim to evaluate how sensitive the prediction accuracy is to the underlying model specifications, the choice of tuning parameters, and the degrees of missing covariates.

The dynamics of carbon stored in xylem sapwood to drought-induced hydraulic stress in mature trees

PubMed Central

Yoshimura, Kenichi; Saiki, Shin-Taro; Yazaki, Kenichi; Ogasa, Mayumi Y.; Shirai, Makoto; Nakano, Takashi; Yoshimura, Jin; Ishida, Atsushi

2016-01-01

Climate-induced forest die-off is widespread in multiple biomes, strongly affecting the species composition, function and primary production in forest ecosystems. Hydraulic failure and carbon starvation in xylem sapwood are major hypotheses to explain drought-induced tree mortality. Because it is difficult to obtain enough field observations on drought-induced mortality in adult trees, the current understanding of the physiological mechanisms for tree die-offs is still controversial. However, the simultaneous examination of water and carbon uses throughout dehydration and rehydration processes in adult trees will contribute to clarify the roles of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation in tree wilting. Here we show the processes of the percent loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) and the content of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) of distal branches in woody plants with contrasting water use strategy. Starch was converted to soluble sugar during PLC progression under drought, and the hydraulic conductivity recovered following water supply. The conversion of NSCs is strongly associated with PLC variations during dehydration and rehydration processes, indicating that stored carbon contributes to tree survival under drought; further carbon starvation can advance hydraulic failure. We predict that even slow-progressing drought degrades forest ecosystems via carbon starvation, causing more frequent catastrophic forest die-offs than the present projection. PMID:27079677

The dynamics of carbon stored in xylem sapwood to drought-induced hydraulic stress in mature trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimura, Kenichi; Saiki, Shin-Taro; Yazaki, Kenichi; Ogasa, Mayumi Y.; Shirai, Makoto; Nakano, Takashi; Yoshimura, Jin; Ishida, Atsushi

2016-04-01

Climate-induced forest die-off is widespread in multiple biomes, strongly affecting the species composition, function and primary production in forest ecosystems. Hydraulic failure and carbon starvation in xylem sapwood are major hypotheses to explain drought-induced tree mortality. Because it is difficult to obtain enough field observations on drought-induced mortality in adult trees, the current understanding of the physiological mechanisms for tree die-offs is still controversial. However, the simultaneous examination of water and carbon uses throughout dehydration and rehydration processes in adult trees will contribute to clarify the roles of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation in tree wilting. Here we show the processes of the percent loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) and the content of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) of distal branches in woody plants with contrasting water use strategy. Starch was converted to soluble sugar during PLC progression under drought, and the hydraulic conductivity recovered following water supply. The conversion of NSCs is strongly associated with PLC variations during dehydration and rehydration processes, indicating that stored carbon contributes to tree survival under drought; further carbon starvation can advance hydraulic failure. We predict that even slow-progressing drought degrades forest ecosystems via carbon starvation, causing more frequent catastrophic forest die-offs than the present projection.

Yohimbine-induced cutaneous drug eruption, progressive renal failure, and lupus-like syndrome.

PubMed

Sandler, B; Aronson, P

1993-04-01

Yohimbine is an indole alkaloid obtained from the yohimbe tree, a common tree in West Africa. We describe a forty-two-year black man in whom a generalized erythrodermic skin eruption, progressive renal failure, and lupus-like syndrome developed following treatment with the drug, yohimbine. A literature review failed to reveal any reported association of these side effects. We review current information on yohimbine's use in male impotence, reported side effects, and its role as a drug allergen.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought.

PubMed

Carnwath, Gunnar; Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales.

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cailleret, Maxime; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M.R.; Desoto, Lucia; Aakala, Tuomas; Antos, Joseph A.; Beikircher, Barbara; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianiga, Marco; Cada, Vojtech; Camarero, Jesus J.; Cherubini, Paolo; Cochard, Herve; Coyea, Marie R.; Cufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J.; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Dorman, Michael; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J.; Hartmann, Henrik; Heres, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R.; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M.; Kharuk, Vyacheslav I.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Kramer, Koen; Lens, Frederic; Levanic, Tom; Calderon, Juan C. Linares; Lloret, Francisco; Lobo-Do-Vale, Raquel; Lombardi, Fabio; Lopez Rodriguez, Rosana; Makinen, Harri; Mayr, Stefan; Meszaros, IIona; Metsaranta, Juha M.; Minunno, Francesco; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petritan, Any M.; Rohner, Brigitte; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Sarris, Dimitrios; Smith, Jeremy M.; Stan, Amanda B.; Sterck, Frank; Stojanovic, Dejan B.; Suarez, Maria L.; Svoboda, Miroslav; Tognetti, Roberto; Torres-Ruiz, Jose M.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Vodde, Floor; Westwood, Alana R.; Wyckoff, Peter H.; Zafirov, Nikolay; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi

2017-01-01

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1–100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality.

PubMed

Cailleret, Maxime; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M R; Desoto, Lucía; Aakala, Tuomas; Antos, Joseph A; Beikircher, Barbara; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianiga, Marco; Čada, Vojtěch; Camarero, Jesus J; Cherubini, Paolo; Cochard, Hervé; Coyea, Marie R; Čufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Dorman, Michael; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J; Hartmann, Henrik; Hereş, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M; Kharuk, Vyacheslav I; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Kramer, Koen; Lens, Frederic; Levanic, Tom; Linares Calderon, Juan C; Lloret, Francisco; Lobo-Do-Vale, Raquel; Lombardi, Fabio; López Rodríguez, Rosana; Mäkinen, Harri; Mayr, Stefan; Mészáros, Ilona; Metsaranta, Juha M; Minunno, Francesco; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petritan, Any M; Rohner, Brigitte; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Sarris, Dimitrios; Smith, Jeremy M; Stan, Amanda B; Sterck, Frank; Stojanović, Dejan B; Suarez, Maria L; Svoboda, Miroslav; Tognetti, Roberto; Torres-Ruiz, José M; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Vodde, Floor; Westwood, Alana R; Wyckoff, Peter H; Zafirov, Nikolay; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi

2017-04-01

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1-100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on resistance versus resilience of Douglas fir to drought

PubMed Central

Nelson, Cara

2017-01-01

Significant increases in tree mortality due to drought-induced physiological stress have been documented worldwide. This trend is likely to continue with increased frequency and severity of extreme drought events in the future. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence variability in drought responses among trees will be critical to predicting ecosystem responses to climate change and developing effective management actions. In this study, we used hierarchical mixed-effects models to analyze drought responses of Pseudotsuga menziesii in 20 unmanaged forests stands across a broad range of environmental conditions in northeastern Washington, USA. We aimed to 1) identify the biotic and abiotic attributes most closely associated with the responses of individual trees to drought and 2) quantify the variability in drought responses at different spatial scales. We found that growth rates and competition for resources significantly affected resistance to a severe drought event in 2001: slow-growing trees and trees growing in subordinate canopy positions and/or with more neighbors suffered greater declines in radial growth during the drought event. In contrast, the ability of a tree to return to normal growth when climatic conditions improved (resilience) was unaffected by competition or relative growth rates. Drought responses were significantly influenced by tree age: older trees were more resistant but less resilient than younger trees. Finally, we found differences between resistance and resilience in spatial scale: a significant proportion (approximately 50%) of the variability in drought resistance across the study area was at broad spatial scales (i.e. among different forest types), most likely due to differences in the total amount of precipitation received at different elevations; in contrast, variation in resilience was overwhelmingly (82%) at the level of individual trees within stands and there was no difference in drought resilience among forest types. Our results suggest that for Pseudotsuga menziesii resistance and resilience to drought are driven by different factors and vary at different spatial scales. PMID:28973008

Windthrown trees on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest: meteorological aspects

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1986-01-01

Blowdown in shelterwood, sanitation cuts, and other partial cuts on the Kings River Ranger District, Sierra National Forest, are due to Mono winds. Both winter storm and Mono winds were considered as causes of winter blowdown. All evidence, e.g., direction of tree-fall and occurrence of high wind events, point to Mono wind events as the cause of blowdown. Only 12...

Object-Oriented Algorithm For Evaluation Of Fault Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1992-01-01

Algorithm for direct evaluation of fault trees incorporates techniques of object-oriented programming. Reduces number of calls needed to solve trees with repeated events. Provides significantly improved software environment for such computations as quantitative analyses of safety and reliability of complicated systems of equipment (e.g., spacecraft or factories).

The Imprint of Extreme Climate Events in Century-Long Time Series of Wood Anatomical Traits in High-Elevation Conifers

PubMed Central

Carrer, Marco; Brunetti, Michele; Castagneri, Daniele

2016-01-01

Extreme climate events are of key importance for forest ecosystems. However, both the inherent infrequency, stochasticity and multiplicity of extreme climate events, and the array of biological responses, challenges investigations. To cope with the long life cycle of trees and the paucity of the extreme events themselves, our inferences should be based on long-term observations. In this context, tree rings and the related xylem anatomical traits represent promising sources of information, due to the wide time perspective and quality of the information they can provide. Here we test, on two high-elevation conifers (Larix decidua and Picea abies sampled at 2100 m a.s.l. in the Eastern Alps), the associations among temperature extremes during the growing season and xylem anatomical traits, specifically the number of cells per ring (CN), cell wall thickness (CWT), and cell diameter (CD). To better track the effect of extreme events over the growing season, tree rings were partitioned in 10 sectors. Climate variability has been reconstructed, for 1800–2011 at monthly resolution and for 1926–2011 at daily resolution, by exploiting the excellent availability of very long and high quality instrumental records available for the surrounding area, and taking into account the relationship between meteorological variables and site topographical settings. Summer temperature influenced anatomical traits of both species, and tree-ring anatomical profiles resulted as being associated to temperature extremes. Most of the extreme values in anatomical traits occurred with warm (positive extremes) or cold (negative) conditions. However, 0–34% of occurrences did not match a temperature extreme event. Specifically, CWT and CN extremes were more clearly associated to climate than CD, which presented a bias to track cold extremes. Dendroanatomical analysis, coupled to high-quality daily-resolved climate records, seems a promising approach to study the effects of extreme events on trees, but further investigations are needed to improve our comprehension of the critical role of such elusive events in forest ecosystems. PMID:27242880

Fuel treatment effects on tree mortality following wildfire in dry mixed conifer forests, Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Maureen C. Kennedy

2012-01-01

Fuel reduction treatments are increasingly used to mitigate future wildfire severity in dry forests, but few opportunities exist to assess their effectiveness. We evaluated the influence of fuel treatment, tree size and species on tree mortality following a large wildfire event in recent thin-only, thin and prescribed burn (thin-Rx) units. Of the trees that died within...

Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: Insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient

Treesearch

Michael J. Clifford; Patrick D. Royer; Neil S. Cobb; David D. Breshears; Paulette L. Ford

2013-01-01

Recent regional tree die-off events appear to have been triggered by a combination of drought and heat - referred to as 'global-change-type drought'. To complement experiments focused on resolving mechanisms of drought-induced tree mortality, an evaluation of how patterns of tree die-off relate to highly spatially variable precipitation is needed....

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

Gene-Tree Reconciliation with MUL-Trees to Resolve Polyploidy Events.

PubMed

Gregg, W C Thomas; Ather, S Hussain; Hahn, Matthew W

2017-11-01

Polyploidy can have a huge impact on the evolution of species, and it is a common occurrence, especially in plants. The two types of polyploids-autopolyploids and allopolyploids-differ in the level of divergence between the genes that are brought together in the new polyploid lineage. Because allopolyploids are formed via hybridization, the homoeologous copies of genes within them are at least as divergent as orthologs in the parental species that came together to form them. This means that common methods for estimating the parental lineages of allopolyploidy events are not accurate, and can lead to incorrect inferences about the number of gene duplications and losses. Here, we have adapted an algorithm for topology-based gene-tree reconciliation to work with multi-labeled trees (MUL-trees). By definition, MUL-trees have some tips with identical labels, which makes them a natural representation of the genomes of polyploids. Using this new reconciliation algorithm we can: accurately place allopolyploidy events on a phylogeny, identify the parental lineages that hybridized to form allopolyploids, distinguish between allo-, auto-, and (in most cases) no polyploidy, and correctly count the number of duplications and losses in a set of gene trees. We validate our method using gene trees simulated with and without polyploidy, and revisit the history of polyploidy in data from the clades including both baker's yeast and bread wheat. Our re-analysis of the yeast data confirms the allopolyploid origin and parental lineages previously identified for this group. The method presented here should find wide use in the growing number of genomes from species with a history of polyploidy. [Polyploidy; reconciliation; whole-genome duplication.]. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tree mortality in the eastern Mediterranean, causes and implications under climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarris, Dimitrios; Iacovou, Valentina; Hoch, Guenter; Vennetier, Michel; Siegwolf, Rolf; Christodoulakis, Dimitrios; Koerner, Christian

2015-04-01

The eastern Mediterranean has experienced repeated incidents of forest mortality related to drought in recent decades. Such events may become more frequent in the future as drought conditions are projected to further intensify due to global warming. We have been investigating the causes behind such forest mortality events in Pinus halepensis, (the most drought tolerant pine in the Mediterranean). We cored tree stems and sampled various tissue types from dry habitats close to sea level and explored growth responses, stable isotope signals and non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations. Under intense drought that coincided with pine desiccation events in natural populations our result indicate a significant reduction in tree growth, the most significant in more than a century despite the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in recent decades. This has been accompanied by a lengthening in the integration periods of rainfall needed for pine growth, reaching even 5-6 years before and including the year of mortality occurrence. Oxygen stable isotopes indicate that these signals were associated with a shift in tree water utilization from deeper moisture pools related to past rainfall events. Furthermore, where the driest conditions occur, pine carbon reserves were found to increase in stem tissue, indicating that mortality in these pines cannot be explained by carbon starvation. Our findings suggest that for pine populations that are already water limited (i) a further atmospheric CO2 increase will not compensate for the reduction in growth because of a drier climate, (ii) hydraulic failure appears as the most likely cause of pine desiccation, as no shortage occurs in tree carbon reserves, (iii) a further increase in mortality events may cause these systems to become carbon sources.

Chronic hepatitis B virus infection and occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in tree shrews (Tupaia belangeri chinensis).

PubMed

Yang, Chun; Ruan, Ping; Ou, Chao; Su, Jianjia; Cao, Ji; Luo, Chengpiao; Tang, Yanping; Wang, Qi; Qin, Hong; Sun, Wen; Li, Yuan

2015-02-13

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has been believed as a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for a long time, however, the evidences of which are mostly from clinical and epidemiological investigations while there is no evidence from animal experiments. Tree shrew (Tupaia) is a small animal closely related to primates evolutionarily, with about 8 years of lifespan. Our previous study proved that tree shrews can be chronically HBV-infected after being inoculated neonatally with HBV. The present study reports the further results from the longer-term observation of these animals. Neonatal tree shrews were inoculated with sera from HBV-infected patient or tree shrew. Their serum samples and liver biopsies were collected periodically for detection of HBV markers as well as for histopathological and immunohistochemical examinations. Group A consisted of six tree shrews with chronic HBV-infection, and group B consisted of nine tree shrews without chronic HBV infection. Periodical examinations on serum and liver biopsies of the animals in group A showed the progress of HBV infection, and two cases of HCC occurred at their late stage of life. The courses of HBV infection and the hepatic histopathological and immunohistochemical changes in the tree shrews were similar to those in humans. In contrast, neither HCC nor obvious hepatitis histopathological change was found among the tree shrews in group B. The course of HBV infection and the features of HCC discovered in tree shrews are similar to those of chronically HBV-infected humans. The tree shrew model might be used to investigate the underlying mechanisms favoring susceptibility for chronic HBV infection and disease progression.

Theory overview of tree-level B decays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Fazio, F.

2017-07-01

I describe the theoretical progress in the study of semileptonic tree-level B decays, and its interplay with recent experimental results. In particular, I focus on two anomalies: the ratios $R(D^{(*)})=\\displaystyle\\frac{{\\cal B}(B \\to D^{(*)} \\tau \\bar \

Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.

PubMed

Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Camarero, J Julio

2017-06-01

The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.

Engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal projects of sudden water pollution incidents.

PubMed

Shi, Bin; Jiang, Jiping; Liu, Rentao; Khan, Afed Ullah; Wang, Peng

2017-06-01

Without an engineering risk assessment for emergency disposal in response to sudden water pollution incidents, responders are prone to be challenged during emergency decision making. To address this gap, the concept and framework of emergency disposal engineering risks are reported in this paper. The proposed risk index system covers three stages consistent with the progress of an emergency disposal project. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), a logical and diagrammatic method, was developed to evaluate the potential failure during the process of emergency disposal. The probability of basic events and their combination, which caused the failure of an emergency disposal project, were calculated based on the case of an emergency disposal project of an aniline pollution incident in the Zhuozhang River, Changzhi, China, in 2014. The critical events that can cause the occurrence of a top event (TE) were identified according to their contribution. Finally, advices on how to take measures using limited resources to prevent the failure of a TE are given according to the quantified results of risk magnitude. The proposed approach could be a potential useful safeguard for the implementation of an emergency disposal project during the process of emergency response.

Efficacy of abamectin and tebuconazole injections to protect of lodgepole pine from mortality attributed to mountain pine beetle attack and progression of blue stain fungi

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Donald M. Grosman; A. Steven. Munson

2013-01-01

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) are important tree mortality agents in western coniferous forests. Protection of individual trees from bark beetle attack has historically involved applications of liquid formulations of contact insecticides to the tree bole using hydraulic sprayers. More recently, researchers have examined the effectiveness of...

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences. PMID:24949231

78 FR 66762 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-06

... of request for public meeting and public comments on the planning of the National Christmas Tree... and suggestions on the planning of the 2013 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day... on the planning of the 2013 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 26-day event, which...

76 FR 66082 - Notice of Public Meeting and Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-25

... for Public Meeting and Public Comments--The National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day... the 2011 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day event. DATES: The meeting will be... and suggestions on the planning of the 2011 National Christmas Tree Lighting and the subsequent 31 day...

Tasting the Tree of Life: Development of a Collaborative, Cross-Campus, Science Outreach Meal Event.

PubMed

Clement, Wendy L; Elliott, Kathryn T; Cordova-Hoyos, Okxana; Distefano, Isabel; Kearns, Kate; Kumar, Raagni; Leto, Ashley; Tumaliuan, Janis; Franchetti, Lauren; Kulesza, Evelyn; Tineo, Nicole; Mendes, Patrice; Roth, Karen; Osborn, Jeffrey M

2018-01-01

Communicating about science with the public can present a number of challenges, from participation to engagement to impact. In an effort to broadly communicate messages regarding biodiversity, evolution, and tree-thinking with the campus community at The College of New Jersey (TCNJ), a public, primarily undergraduate institution, we created a campus-wide, science-themed meal, "Tasting the Tree of Life: Exploring Biodiversity through Cuisine." We created nine meals that incorporated 149 species/ingredients across the Tree of Life. Each meal illustrated a scientific message communicated through interactions with undergraduate biology students, informational signs, and an interactive website. To promote tree-thinking, we reconstructed a phylogeny of all 149 ingredients. In total, 3,262 people attended the meal, and evaluations indicated that participants left with greater appreciation for the biodiversity and evolutionary relatedness of their food. A keynote lecture and a coordinated social media campaign enhanced the scientific messages, and media coverage extended the reach of this event. "Tasting the Tree of Life" highlights the potential of cuisine as a valuable science communication tool.

Tropical forest carbon balance: effects of field- and satellite-based mortality regimes on the dynamics and the spatial structure of Central Amazon forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Higuchi, Niro; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

2014-03-01

Debate continues over the adequacy of existing field plots to sufficiently capture Amazon forest dynamics to estimate regional forest carbon balance. Tree mortality dynamics are particularly uncertain due to the difficulty of observing large, infrequent disturbances. A recent paper (Chambers et al 2013 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 110 3949-54) reported that Central Amazon plots missed 9-17% of tree mortality, and here we address ‘why’ by elucidating two distinct mortality components: (1) variation in annual landscape-scale average mortality and (2) the frequency distribution of the size of clustered mortality events. Using a stochastic-empirical tree growth model we show that a power law distribution of event size (based on merged plot and satellite data) is required to generate spatial clustering of mortality that is consistent with forest gap observations. We conclude that existing plots do not sufficiently capture losses because their placement, size, and longevity assume spatially random mortality, while mortality is actually distributed among differently sized events (clusters of dead trees) that determine the spatial structure of forest canopies.

A method for investigating relative timing information on phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Ford, Daniel; Matsen, Frederick A; Stadler, Tanja

2009-04-01

In this paper, we present a new way to describe the timing of branching events in phylogenetic trees. Our description is in terms of the relative timing of diversification events between sister clades; as such it is complementary to existing methods using lineages-through-time plots which consider diversification in aggregate. The method can be applied to look for evidence of diversification happening in lineage-specific "bursts", or the opposite, where diversification between 2 clades happens in an unusually regular fashion. In order to be able to distinguish interesting events from stochasticity, we discuss 2 classes of neutral models on trees with relative timing information and develop a statistical framework for testing these models. These model classes include both the coalescent with ancestral population size variation and global rate speciation-extinction models. We end the paper with 2 example applications: first, we show that the evolution of the hepatitis C virus deviates from the coalescent with arbitrary population size. Second, we analyze a large tree of ants, demonstrating that a period of elevated diversification rates does not appear to have occurred in a bursting manner.

Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

PubMed

Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

2015-09-01

The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Progress report to the International Fruit Tree Association

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report provides an update on several projects that are fostered by the International Fruit Tree Association which covers some aspects of rootstock development, performance in the orchard and to address nursery industry needs. The report highlights results from graft union strength experiments,...

Cross-scale interactions affect tree growth and intrinsic water ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

1. We investigated the potential of cross-scale interactions to affect the outcome of density reduction in a large-scale silvicultural experiment. 2. We measured tree growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) based on stable carbon isotopes (13C) to investigate the impacts of thinning across a range of progressively finer spatial scales: site, stand, hillslope position, and neighborhood position. In particular, we focused on the influence of thinning beyond the boundaries of thinned stands to include impacts on downslope and neighboring stands across sites varying in soil moisture. 3. Trees at the wet site responded to thinning with increased growth when compared with trees at the dry site. Additionally, trees in thinned stands at the dry site responded with increased iWUE while trees in thinned stands at the wet site showed no difference in iWUE compared to unthinned stands. 4. We hypothesized that water is not the primary limiting factor for growth at our sites, but that thinning released other resources, such as growing space or nutrients to drive the growth response. At progressively finer spatial scales we found that the responses of trees was not driven by hillslope location (i.e., downslope of thinning) but to changes in local neighborhood tree density. 5. The results of this study demonstrated that water can be viewed as an “agent” that allows us to investigate cross-scale interactions as it links coarse to finer spatial scales and vice ver

Mistletoe infection alters the transpiration flow path and suppresses water regulation of host trees during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griebel, A.; Maier, C.; Barton, C. V.; Metzen, D.; Renchon, A.; Boer, M. M.; Pendall, E.

2017-12-01

Mistletoe is a globally distributed group of parasitic plants that infiltrates the vascular tissue of its host trees to acquire water, carbon and nutrients, making it a leading agent of biotic disturbance. Many mistletoes occur in water-limited ecosystems, thus mistletoe infection in combination with increased climatic stress may exacerbate water stress and potentially accelerate mortality rates of infected trees during extreme events. This is an emerging problem in Australia, as mistletoe distribution is increasing and clear links between mistletoe infection and mortality have been established. However, direct observations about how mistletoes alter host physiological processes during extreme events are rare, which impedes our understanding of mechanisms underlying increased tree mortality rates. We addressed this gap by continuously monitoring stem and branch sap flow and a range of leaf traits of infected and uninfected trees of two co-occurring eucalypt species during a severe heatwave in south-eastern Australia. We demonstrate that mistletoes' leaf water potentials were maintained 30% lower than hosts' to redirect the trees' transpiration flow path towards mistletoe leaves. Eucalypt leaves reduced water loss through stomatal regulation when atmospheric dryness exceeded 2 kPa, but the magnitude of stomatal regulation in non-infected eucalypts differed by species (between 40-80%). Remarkably, when infected, sap flow rates of stems and branches of both eucalypt species remained unregulated even under extreme atmospheric dryness (>8 kPa). Our observations indicate that excessive water use of mistletoes likely increases xylem cavitation rates in hosts during prolonged droughts and supports that hydraulic failure contributes to increased mortality of infected trees. Hence, in order to accurately model the contribution of biotic disturbances to tree mortality under a changing climate, it will be crucial to increase our process-based understanding of the interaction between biotic and abiotic dynamics, especially to establish thresholds of critical cavitation rates of infected trees.

Twisted trees and inconsistency of tree estimation when gaps are treated as missing data - The impact of model mis-specification in distance corrections.

PubMed

McTavish, Emily Jane; Steel, Mike; Holder, Mark T

2015-12-01

Statistically consistent estimation of phylogenetic trees or gene trees is possible if pairwise sequence dissimilarities can be converted to a set of distances that are proportional to the true evolutionary distances. Susko et al. (2004) reported some strikingly broad results about the forms of inconsistency in tree estimation that can arise if corrected distances are not proportional to the true distances. They showed that if the corrected distance is a concave function of the true distance, then inconsistency due to long branch attraction will occur. If these functions are convex, then two "long branch repulsion" trees will be preferred over the true tree - though these two incorrect trees are expected to be tied as the preferred true. Here we extend their results, and demonstrate the existence of a tree shape (which we refer to as a "twisted Farris-zone" tree) for which a single incorrect tree topology will be guaranteed to be preferred if the corrected distance function is convex. We also report that the standard practice of treating gaps in sequence alignments as missing data is sufficient to produce non-linear corrected distance functions if the substitution process is not independent of the insertion/deletion process. Taken together, these results imply inconsistent tree inference under mild conditions. For example, if some positions in a sequence are constrained to be free of substitutions and insertion/deletion events while the remaining sites evolve with independent substitutions and insertion/deletion events, then the distances obtained by treating gaps as missing data can support an incorrect tree topology even given an unlimited amount of data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event on tropical trees in regrowing secondary forests in Central Panama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

2016-12-01

The 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record in Panama, with severe drought conditions reported for over 90% of the country. A predicted long-term transition into a drier climatic period makes this event an ideal opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical tree species in secondary forests of central Panama. These forests are associated with desirable hydrological ecosystem services, characterized by reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events in the rainy season and increased base flow during the dry season ("sponge-effect"), making these forest invaluable for water provisioning for the Panama Canal's $2 billion business and Panama's thriving capital city. Starting in February 2015, we installed heat-ratio sap flow sensors in 76 trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in the Panama Canal Watershed. Within each site, trees were selected to represent local tree size distribution. Additional sensors were installed on the roots of a subset of trees. Sap flow data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured every 3 minutes at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Pre-dawn, mid-day, and pre-dusk leaf water potentials were measured during the dry season (March 2016) and rainy season (July 2016). Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station ("Celestino"). Primary drivers of transpiration were vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. Trees of the 25 and 80+ year old forests appear not water limited during the dry season following ENSO while reduced sap flow rates of trees in the 8 year old forest are indicative of a regulatory response to the drought. Younger understory trees in the 80+ year old forest showed no signs of a drought response. Throughout most of the dry season, volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. Our data indicate higher resilience to drought in older forest and support that hydrological properties improve as secondary forests mature in central Panama.

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhegang Ma

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

Impacts of short-term heatwaves on sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SiF) in temperate tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Gu, L.; Guha, A.; Han, J.; Warren, J.

2017-12-01

The current projections for global climate change forecast an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and short-term heat waves. Understanding the effects of short-term heat wave on photosynthesis process is of critical importance to predict global impacts of extreme weather event on vegetation. The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of SIF emitted from natural vegetation, e.g., forest and crop, have been studied at the ecosystem-scale, regional-scale and global-scale. However, the detailed response of SIF from different plant species under extremely weather event, especially short-term heat wave, have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to study the response of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange and continuous fluorescence at leaf scale for different temperate tree species. The short-term heatwave experiment was conducted using plant growth chamber (CMP6050, Conviron Inc., Canada). We developed an advanced spectral fitting method to obtain the plant SIF in the plant growth chamber. We compared SIF variation among different wavelength and chlorophyll difference among four temperate tree species. The diurnal variation of SIF signals at leaf-scales for temperate tree species are different under heat stress. The SIF response at leaf-scales and their difference for four temperate tree species are different during a cycle of short-term heatwave stress. We infer that SIF be used as a measure of heat tolerance for temperate tree species.

Assessment of Methods to Determine Tree Ring Response to Large Magnitude Mississippi River Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrell, M. D.; Meko, M. D.; Bialecki, M.; Remo, J. W.

2017-12-01

Riparian trees that experience prolonged inundation can record major flood events as inter-and intra-annual variability in size, shape and arrangement of vessels in the annual xylem growth increment. As part of an NSF-funded project to develop tree-ring records of past flooding, we have made collections of several oak species (e.g., Quercus lyrata, Q. macrocarpa) at six sites in the Mississippi River Basin. At each of these sites sampled trees exhibit notably anomalous anatomy of growth increments formed in years coinciding with major recorded floods. We have used these "flood rings" to develop individual site chronologies as well as a regional chronology of spring flood events in the basin for the past several hundred years. We have also analyzed earlywood vessel diameter as a proxy for flooding and find that although this variable reflects only a fraction of the annual-growth increment it strongly reflects tree response to flooding at all the sites so far examined. We compare both these chronologies with the instrumental and historical record of flooding and find that our chronologies are recording nearly all large observed Mississippi River floods in the 20th century, and provide a new record of similar events in the 18th and 19th centuries. These results suggest that tree-rings can be effectively used to develop and improve pre-instrumental flood records throughout the basin and potentially other similar systems.

Effect of temperature and tree species on damage progression caused by whitespotted sawyer (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae in recently burned logs.

PubMed

Bélanger, Sébastien; Bauce, Eric; Berthiaume, Richard; Long, Bernard; Labrie, Jacques; Daigle, Louis-Frédéric; Hébert, Christian

2013-06-01

The whitespotted sawyer, Monochamus scutellatus scutellatus (Say) (Coleoptera: Ce-rambycidae), is one of the most damaging wood-boring insects in recently burned boreal forests of North America. In Canada, salvage logging after wildfire contributes to maintaining the timber volume required by the forest industry, but larvae of this insect cause significant damage that reduces the economic value of lumber products. This study aimed to estimate damage progression as a function of temperature in recently burned black spruce (Picea mariana (Miller) Britton, Sterns, and Poggenburg) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) trees. Using axial tomographic technology, we modeled subcortical development and gallery depth progression rates as functions of temperature for both tree species. Generally, these rates were slightly faster in black spruce than in jack pine logs. Eggs laid on logs kept at 12 degrees C did not hatch or larvae were unable to establish themselves under the bark because no larval development was observed. At 16 degrees C, larvae stayed under the bark for > 200 d before penetrating into the sapwood. At 20 degrees C, half of the larvae entered the sapwood after 30-50 d, but gallery depth progression stopped for approximately 70 d, suggesting that larvae went into diapause. The other half of the larvae entered the sapwood only after 100-200 d. At 24 and 28 degrees C, larvae entered the sapwood after 26-27 and 21 d, respectively. At 28 degrees C, gallery depth progressed at a rate of 1.44 mm/d. Temperature threshold for subcortical development was slightly lower in black spruce (12.9 degrees C) than in jack pine (14.6 degrees C) and it was 1 degrees C warmer for gallery depth progression for both tree species. These results indicate that significant damage may occur within a few months after fire during warm summers, particularly in black spruce, which highlights the importance of beginning postfire salvage logging as soon as possible to reduce economic losses.

Secondary sclerosing cholangitis in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Peña-Pérez, Carlos Alberto; Ponce-Medrano, Juan Alberto Díaz

2018-01-01

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare idiopathic condition with immunopathogenic mechanisms where there is chronic progressive destruction of the biliary tree. Secondary sclerosing cholangitis (SSC) is clinically comparable to PSC, but is caused by specific processes which directly damage the biliary tree; examples include recurrent pancreatitis, bile duct malignancy, congenital bile duct abnormalities. A new cause of SSC has been described during or following significant critical illness associated with severe respiratory insufficiency, vasopressor requirement, shock and sepsis. This condition rapidly progresses to cirrhosis, frequently requiring liver transplantation for definitive management. Copyright: © 2018 Permanyer.

Divergence in strategies for coping with winter embolism among co-occurring temperate tree species: the role of positive xylem pressure, wood type and tree stature

Treesearch

Cun-Yang Niu; Frederick C. Meinzer; Guang-You Hao

2017-01-01

1. In temperate ecosystems, freeze-thaw events are an important environmental stress that can induce severe xylem embolism (i.e. clogging of conduits by air bubbles) in overwintering organs of trees. However, no comparative studies of different adaptive strategies among sympatric tree species for coping with winter embolism have examined the potential role of the...

A photo guide to the patterns of discoloration and decay in living northern hardwood trees

Treesearch

Alex L. Shigo; Edwin vH. Larson

1969-01-01

This guide has been prepared to help you estimate the extent and severity of discoloration and decay in northern hardwood trees. Though this certainly is not the last word on the subject, our research in this has progressed to the point where our findings, combined with the findings of others, can be put to practical use. By dissecting living trees and studying the...

Progressive erosion of genetic and epigenetic variation in callus-derived cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants.

PubMed

Rodríguez López, Carlos M; Wetten, Andrew C; Wilkinson, Michael J

2010-06-01

*Relatively little is known about the timing of genetic and epigenetic forms of somaclonal variation arising from callus growth. We surveyed for both types of change in cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants regenerated from calli of various ages, and also between tissues from the source trees. *For genetic change, we used 15 single sequence repeat (SSR) markers from four source trees and from 233 regenerated plants. For epigenetic change, we used 386 methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) markers on leaf and explant (staminode) DNA from two source trees and on leaf DNA from 114 regenerants. *Genetic variation within source trees was limited to one slippage mutation in one leaf. Regenerants were far more variable, with 35% exhibiting at least one mutation. Genetic variation initially accumulated with culture age but subsequently declined. MSAP (epigenetic) profiles diverged between leaf and staminode samples from source trees. Multivariate analysis revealed that leaves from regenerants occupied intermediate eigenspace between leaves and staminodes of source plants but became progressively more similar to source tree leaves with culture age. *Statistical analysis confirmed this rather counterintuitive finding that leaves of 'late regenerants' exhibited significantly less genetic and epigenetic divergence from source leaves than those exposed to short periods of callus growth.

Strip-Bark Morphology and Radial Growth Trends in Ancient Pinus sibirica Trees From Central Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leland, Caroline; Cook, Edward R.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Pederson, Neil; Hessl, Amy; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Davi, Nicole; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Griffin, Kevin; Bishop, Daniel A.; Rao, Mukund Palat

2018-03-01

Some of the oldest and most important trees used for dendroclimatic reconstructions develop strip-bark morphology, in which only a portion of the stem contains living tissue. Yet the ecophysiological factors initiating strip bark and the potential effect of cambial dieback on annual ring widths and tree-ring estimates of past climate remain poorly understood. Using a combination of field observations and tree-ring data, we investigate the causes and timing of cambial dieback events in Pinus sibirica strip-bark trees from central Mongolia and compare the radial growth rates and trends of strip-bark and whole-bark trees over the past 515 years. Results indicate that strip bark is more common on the southern aspect of trees, and dieback events were most prevalent in the 19th century, a cold and dry period. Further, strip-bark and whole-bark trees have differing centennial trends, with strip-bark trees exhibiting notably large increases in ring widths at the beginning of the 20th century. We find a steeper positive trend in the strip-bark chronology relative to the whole-bark chronology when standardizing with age-dependent splines. We hypothesize that localized warming on the southern side of stems due to solar irradiance results in physiological damage and dieback and leads to increasing tree-ring increment along the living portion of strip-bark trees. Because the impact of cambial dieback on ring widths likely varies depending on species and site, we suggest conducting a comparison of strip-bark and whole-bark ring widths before statistically treating ring-width data for climate reconstructions.

The use of minimal spanning trees in particle physics

DOE PAGES

Rainbolt, J. Lovelace; Schmitt, M.

2017-02-14

Minimal spanning trees (MSTs) have been used in cosmology and astronomy to distinguish distributions of points in a multi-dimensional space. They are essentially unknown in particle physics, however. We briefly define MSTs and illustrate their properties through a series of examples. We show how they might be applied to study a typical event sample from a collider experiment and conclude that MSTs may prove useful in distinguishing different classes of events.

The use of minimal spanning trees in particle physics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rainbolt, J. Lovelace; Schmitt, M.

Minimal spanning trees (MSTs) have been used in cosmology and astronomy to distinguish distributions of points in a multi-dimensional space. They are essentially unknown in particle physics, however. We briefly define MSTs and illustrate their properties through a series of examples. We show how they might be applied to study a typical event sample from a collider experiment and conclude that MSTs may prove useful in distinguishing different classes of events.

Temporal Association Between Nonfatal Self-Directed Violence and Tree and Grass Pollen Counts.

PubMed

Jeon-Slaughter, Haekyung; Claassen, Cynthia A; Khan, David A; Mihalakos, Perry; Lee, Kevin B; Brown, E Sherwood

2016-09-01

Prior research suggests a possible association between pollen and suicide. No studies have examined the relationship between pollen and attempted suicide. This study examines the temporal association between airborne pollen counts and nonfatal suicidal and nonsuicidal self-directed violence (SDV) requiring an emergency department visit. Data on daily emergency department visits due to nonfatal SDV as identified by ICD-9 diagnosis criteria were extracted from emergency department medical records of Parkland Memorial Hospital in Dallas, Texas, between January 2000 and December 2003. Concurrent daily airborne tree, grass, and ragweed pollen data from the city of Dallas were extracted from the National Allergy Bureau online database. The data were analyzed using the time series method of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. There were statistically significant and positive temporal associations between tree pollen counts and the number of nonfatal SDV events among women (P = .04) and between grass pollen counts and number of nonfatal SDV events among both men (P = .03) and women (P < .0001). There was no significant temporal association found between ragweed pollen counts and number of nonfatal SDV events. The study findings suggest that an increase in nonfatal SDV is associated with changes in tree and grass pollen counts. This is the first study that has examined an association between seasonal variation in tree and grass pollen levels and nonfatal SDV event data. The study also used a narrowly defined geographic area and temporal window. The findings suggest that pollen count may be a factor influencing seasonal patterns in suicidal behavior. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

PubMed

Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

FISHtrees 3.0: Tumor Phylogenetics Using a Ploidy Probe.

PubMed

Gertz, E Michael; Chowdhury, Salim Akhter; Lee, Woei-Jyh; Wangsa, Darawalee; Heselmeyer-Haddad, Kerstin; Ried, Thomas; Schwartz, Russell; Schäffer, Alejandro A

2016-01-01

Advances in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) make it feasible to detect multiple copy-number changes in hundreds of cells of solid tumors. Studies using FISH, sequencing, and other technologies have revealed substantial intra-tumor heterogeneity. The evolution of subclones in tumors may be modeled by phylogenies. Tumors often harbor aneuploid or polyploid cell populations. Using a FISH probe to estimate changes in ploidy can guide the creation of trees that model changes in ploidy and individual gene copy-number variations. We present FISHtrees 3.0, which implements a ploidy-based tree building method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The ploidy-based modeling in FISHtrees includes a new formulation of the problem of merging trees for changes of a single gene into trees modeling changes in multiple genes and the ploidy. When multiple samples are collected from each patient, varying over time or tumor regions, it is useful to evaluate similarities in tumor progression among the samples. Therefore, we further implemented in FISHtrees 3.0 a new method to build consensus graphs for multiple samples. We validate FISHtrees 3.0 on a simulated data and on FISH data from paired cases of cervical primary and metastatic tumors and on paired breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Tests on simulated data show improved accuracy of the ploidy-based approach relative to prior ploidyless methods. Tests on real data further demonstrate novel insights these methods offer into tumor progression processes. Trees for DCIS samples are significantly less complex than trees for paired IDC samples. Consensus graphs show substantial divergence among most paired samples from both sets. Low consensus between DCIS and IDC trees may help explain the difficulty in finding biomarkers that predict which DCIS cases are at most risk to progress to IDC. The FISHtrees software is available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees.

FISHtrees 3.0: Tumor Phylogenetics Using a Ploidy Probe

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Salim Akhter; Lee, Woei-Jyh; Wangsa, Darawalee; Heselmeyer-Haddad, Kerstin; Ried, Thomas; Schwartz, Russell; Schäffer, Alejandro A.

2016-01-01

Advances in fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) make it feasible to detect multiple copy-number changes in hundreds of cells of solid tumors. Studies using FISH, sequencing, and other technologies have revealed substantial intra-tumor heterogeneity. The evolution of subclones in tumors may be modeled by phylogenies. Tumors often harbor aneuploid or polyploid cell populations. Using a FISH probe to estimate changes in ploidy can guide the creation of trees that model changes in ploidy and individual gene copy-number variations. We present FISHtrees 3.0, which implements a ploidy-based tree building method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP). The ploidy-based modeling in FISHtrees includes a new formulation of the problem of merging trees for changes of a single gene into trees modeling changes in multiple genes and the ploidy. When multiple samples are collected from each patient, varying over time or tumor regions, it is useful to evaluate similarities in tumor progression among the samples. Therefore, we further implemented in FISHtrees 3.0 a new method to build consensus graphs for multiple samples. We validate FISHtrees 3.0 on a simulated data and on FISH data from paired cases of cervical primary and metastatic tumors and on paired breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Tests on simulated data show improved accuracy of the ploidy-based approach relative to prior ploidyless methods. Tests on real data further demonstrate novel insights these methods offer into tumor progression processes. Trees for DCIS samples are significantly less complex than trees for paired IDC samples. Consensus graphs show substantial divergence among most paired samples from both sets. Low consensus between DCIS and IDC trees may help explain the difficulty in finding biomarkers that predict which DCIS cases are at most risk to progress to IDC. The FISHtrees software is available at ftp://ftp.ncbi.nih.gov/pub/FISHtrees. PMID:27362268

Historical vegetation change in Oakland and its implications for urban forest management

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

1993-01-01

The history of Oakland, California's urban forest was researched to determine events that could influence future urban forests. Vegetation in Oakland has changed drastically from a preurbanized area with approximately 2% tree cover to a present tree cover of 19%. Species composition of trees was previously dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia...

Patterns of conifer tree regeneration following an autumn wildfire event in the western Oregon Cascade Range, USA.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Larson; Jerry F. Franklin

2005-01-01

We investigated the effect of fire severity and environmental conditions on conifer tree regeneration 11 years after an autumn wildfire in the western Oregon Cascade Range. Conifer tree seedlings, including those of Pseudotsuga menziesii, established promptly and at high densities following fire, in contrast to long establishment periods documented...

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelson, P. O.

1971-01-01

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Abigail Derby Lewis; Robert Fahey; Lydia Scott; Lindsay Darling; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step...

Survival and ecophysiology of tree seedlings during El Nino drought in a tropical moist forest in Panama

Treesearch

Betinna M.J. Engelbrecht; S. Joseph Wright; Diane De Steven

2002-01-01

In tropical forests, severe droughts caused by El Nino events may strongly influence the water relations of tree seedlings and thereby increase their mortality. Data on known-aged seedlings of three common shade-tolerant canopy tree species (Trichilia tuberculata, Tetragastris panamensis and Quararibea asterolepis) in a Panamanian...

Belowground Carbon Allocation to Ectomycorrhizal Fungi Links Biogeochemical Cycles of Boron and Nitrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, R. W.; Högberg, P.; Ingri, J. N.

2011-12-01

Boron (B) is an essential micronutrient to most trees and represents an important limiting resource in some regions, deficient trees experiencing the loss of apical dominance, altered stem growth, and even tree death in extreme cases. Similar to the acquisition of most soil nutrients, B is likely supplied to host trees by mycorrhizal symbionts in exchange for recently fixed carbohydrates. In this way, belowground allocation of photosynthate, which drives the majority of biological processes belowground, links the biogeochemical cycles of B and nitrogen (N). Using a long-term N addition experiment in a Pinus sylvestris forest that has been ongoing for 41 years, we examined how the availability of inorganic N mediates the response of B isotopes in the tree needles, organic soil, and fungal pools in a boreal forest in northern Sweden. Using archived needle samples collected annually from the current year's needle crop, we observed δ11B to increase from 30.8 (0.5 se) to 41.8 (0.7 se)% in N fertilized plots from 1970 to 1979, a period of increasing B deficiency stress induced by N fertilization; the concentration of B in tree needles during 1979 dropping as low as 3.0 μg g-2. During the same period, B concentrations in tree needles from control plots remained relatively unchanged and δ11B remained at a steady state value of 34.1 (1.0 se)%. Following a distinct, large-scale, pulse labeling event in 1980 in which 2.5 kg ha-1 of isotopically distinct B was applied to all treatment and control plots to alleviate the N-induced B deficiency, concentrations of B in current needles increased immediately in all treatments, the magnitude of the response being dependent upon the N treatment. But unlike other pool dilution studies, δ11B of current tree needles did not return to pre-addition, steady-state levels. Instead, δ11B continued to decrease over time in both N addition and control treatments. This unexpected pattern has not been previously described but can be explained by the preferential translocation of 10B to their host trees by ectomycorrhizal fungi, while the fungal partner retains the heavier 11B. Repeated fractionation over time leads to progressively larger differences in δ11B in both current tree needles and also fungal tissue, analogous to the repeated fractionation of N isotopes by ectomycorrhizal fungi.

How does tree age influence damage and recovery in forests impacted by freezing rain and snow?

PubMed

Zhu, LiRong; Zhou, Ting; Chen, BaoMing; Peng, ShaoLin

2015-05-01

The response and recovery mechanisms of forests to damage from freezing rain and snow events are a key topic in forest research and management. However, the relationship between the degree of damage and tree age, i.e., whether seedlings, young trees, or adult trees are most vulnerable, remains unclear and is rarely reported. We investigated the effect of tree age on the degrees of vegetation damage and subsequent recovery in three subtropical forest types-coniferous, mixed, and broad-leaved-in the Tianjing Mountains, South China, after a series of rare icy rain and freezing snow events in 2008. The results showed that damage and recovery rates were both dependent on tree age, with the proportion of damaged vegetation increasing with age (estimated by diameter at breast height, DBH) in all three forest types and gradually plateauing. Significant variation occurred among forest types. Young trees in the coniferous forest were more vulnerable than those in the broad-leaved forest. The type of damage also varied with tree age in different ways in the three forest types. The proportion of young seedlings that were uprooted (the most severe type of damage) was highest in the coniferous forest. In the mixed forest, young trees were significantly more likely to be uprooted than seedlings and adult trees, while in the broad-leaved forest, the proportion of uprooted adult trees was significantly higher than that of seedlings and young trees. There were also differences among forest types in how tree age affected damage recovery. In the coniferous forest, the recovery rate of trees with broken trunks or crowns (DBH > 2.5 cm) increased with tree age. However, in the mixed and broad-leaved forests, no obvious correlation between the recovery rate of trees with broken trunks or crowns and tree age was observed. Trees with severe root damage did not recover; they were uprooted and died. In these forests, vegetation damage and recovery showed tree age dependencies, which varied with tree shape, forest type, and damage type. Understanding this dependency will guide restoration after freezing rain and snow disturbances.

Evaluation of growth disturbances of Picea abies (L.) Karst. to disturbances caused by landslide movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel

2017-01-01

Dendrogeomorphic methods are frequently used in landslide analyses. Although methods of landslide dating based on tree rings are well developed, they still indicated many questions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequently used theoretical scheme based on the event-response relationship. Seventy-four individuals of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) exhibiting visible external disturbance, were sampled on the Girová landslide (the largest historical flow-like landslide in the Czech Republic). This landslide reactivated in May 2010, and post-landslide tree growth responses were studied in detail. These growth responses were compared with the intensity and occurrence of visible external tree disturbance: tilted stems, damaged root systems, and decapitation. Twenty-nine trees (39.2%) died within one to four years following the 2010 landslide movement. The trees that died following the landslide movement were significantly younger and displayed significantly greater stem tilting than the live trees. Abrupt growth suppression was a more-frequent response among the dead trees, whereas growth release dominated among the live trees. Only two trees (2.7%) created no reaction wood in response to the landslide movement. Forty-four percent of the trees started to produce reaction wood structure after a delay, which generally spanned one year. Some eccentric growth was evident in the tree rings of the landslide year and was significant in the first years following the landslide movement. Missing rings were observed only on the upper sides of the stems, and no false tree rings were observed. The results confirm the general validity of event-response relationship, nevertheless this study points out the limitations and uncertainties of this generally accepted working scheme.

Drought-induced changes in Amazon forest structure from repeat airborne lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, D. C.; Leitold, V.; Longo, M.; Keller, M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.

2017-12-01

Drought events in tropical forests, including the 2015-2016 El Niño, may reduce net primary productivity and increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering the short and long-term net carbon balance of tropical forests. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, forest inventory plots or eddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. Here, we analyzed repeat airborne lidar data to evaluate canopy turnover from branch and tree fall before (2013-2014) and during (2014-2016) the recent El Niño drought in the eastern and central Brazilian Amazon. Coincident field surveys for a 16-ha subset of the lidar coverage provided complementary information to classify turnover areas by mechanism (branch, multiple branch, tree fall, multiple tree fall) and estimate the total coarse woody debris volume from canopy and understory tree mortality. Annualized rates of canopy turnover increased by 50%, on average, during the drought period in both intact and fragmented forests near Santarém, Pará. Turnover increased uniformly across all size classes, and there was limited evidence that taller trees contributed a greater proportion of turnover events in any size class in 2014-2016 compared to 2013-2014. This short-term increase in canopy turnover differs from findings in multi-year rainfall exclusion experiments that large trees were more sensitive to drought impacts. Field measurements confirmed the separability of the smallest (single branch) and largest damage classes (multiple tree falls), but single tree and multiple branch fall events generated similar coarse woody debris production and lidar-derived changes in canopy volume. Large-scale sampling possible with repeat airborne lidar data also captured strong local and regional gradients in canopy turnover. Differences in slope partially explained the north-south gradient in canopy turnover dynamics near Santarém, with larger increases in turnover on flatter terrain. Regional variability in canopy turnover in response to drought conditions highlights the need for a mechanistic representation of branch and tree fall dynamics in ecosystem models to resolve changes in net carbon balance from the increase in coarse woody debris production and reorganization of canopy light environments during drought years.

Environmental factors impact Passalora sequoiae conidia counts from Leyland Cypress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Needle blight disease, caused by Passalora sequoiae, results in a progressive lost of leaf tissue on Leyland cypress (×Cupressocyparis leylandii) within container and field tree nurseries, in the landscape, and on Christmas tree farms. Fungicide schedules were developed in response to seasonal sympt...

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

The scientific value and potential of New Zealand swamp kauri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Boswijk, Gretel; Hogg, Alan; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Christian S. M.; Fowler, Anthony M.; Ogden, John; Woolley, John-Mark

2018-03-01

New Zealand swamp kauri (Agathis australis) are relic trees that have been buried and preserved in anoxic bog environments of northern New Zealand for centuries through to hundreds of millennia. Kauri are massive in proportion to other native New Zealand trees and they can attain ages greater than 1000 years. The export market for swamp (subfossil) kauri has recently been driven by demand for a high-value workable timber, but there are concerns about the sustainability of the remaining resource, a situation exacerbated in recent years by the rapid extraction of wood. Economic exploitation of swamp kauri presents several unique opportunities for Quaternary science, however the scientific value of this wood is not well understood by the wider research community and public. Here, we summarise the history of scientific research on swamp kauri, and explore the considerable potential of this unique resource. Swamp kauri tree-ring chronologies are temporally unique, and secondary analyses (such as radiocarbon and isotopic analyses) have value for improving our understanding of Earth's recent geologic history and pre-instrumental climate history. Swamp kauri deposits that span the last interglacial-glacial cycle show potential to yield "ultra-long" multi-millennia tree-ring chronologies, and composite records spanning large parts of MIS3 (and most of the Holocene) may be possible. High-precision radiocarbon dating of swamp kauri chronologies can improve the resolution of the global radiocarbon calibration curve, while testing age modelling and chronologic alignment of other independent long-term high-resolution proxy records. Swamp kauri also has the potential to facilitate absolute dating and verification of cosmogenic events found in long Northern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. Future efforts to conserve these identified values requires scientists to work closely with swamp kauri industry operators, resource consent authorities, and export regulators to mitigate potential losses to science as this precious material is progressively extracted from the ground and utilized.

Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recordered in giant sequoia tree rings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, M.K.; Brown, P.M.

1992-01-01

Well replicated tree-ring width index chronologies have been developed for giant sequoia at three sites in the Sierra Nevada, California. Extreme low-growth events in these chronologies correspond with regional drought events in the twentieth century in the San Joaquin drainage, in which the giant sequoia sites are located. This relationship is based upon comparison of tree-ring indices with August Palmer Drought Severity Indices for California Climate Division 5. Ring-width indices in the lowest decile from each site were compared. The frequency of low-growth events which occurred at all three sites in the same year is reconstructed from 101 B.C. tomore » A.D. 1988. The inferred frequency of severe drought events changes through time, sometimes suddenly. The period from roughly 1850 to 1950 had one of the lowest frequencies of drought of any one hundred year period in the 2089 year record. The twentieth century so far has had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts. 26 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.« less

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

Using Boosting Decision Trees in Gravitational Wave Searches triggered by Gamma-ray Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuraw, Sarah; LIGO Collaboration

2015-04-01

The search for gravitational wave bursts requires the ability to distinguish weak signals from background detector noise. Gravitational wave bursts are characterized by their transient nature, making them particularly difficult to detect as they are similar to non-Gaussian noise fluctuations in the detector. The Boosted Decision Tree method is a powerful machine learning algorithm which uses Multivariate Analysis techniques to explore high-dimensional data sets in order to distinguish between gravitational wave signal and background detector noise. It does so by training with known noise events and simulated gravitational wave events. The method is tested using waveform models and compared with the performance of the standard gravitational wave burst search pipeline for Gamma-ray Bursts. It is shown that the method is able to effectively distinguish between signal and background events under a variety of conditions and over multiple Gamma-ray Burst events. This example demonstrates the usefulness and robustness of the Boosted Decision Tree and Multivariate Analysis techniques as a detection method for gravitational wave bursts. LIGO, UMass, PREP, NEGAP.

Vulnerability of Amazon forests to storm-driven tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Holm, Jennifer A.; Magnabosco Marra, Daniel; Rifai, Sami W.; Riley, William J.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Koven, Charles D.; Knox, Ryan G.; McGroddy, Megan E.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Urquiza-Muñoz, Jose; Tello-Espinoza, Rodil; Alegria Muñoz, Waldemar; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Higuchi, Niro

2018-05-01

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest community composition and carbon dynamics. Strong winds associated with severe convective storms are dominant natural drivers of tree mortality in the Amazon. Why forests vary with respect to their vulnerability to wind events and how the predicted increase in storm events might affect forest ecosystems within the Amazon are not well understood. We found that windthrows are common in the Amazon region extending from northwest (Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and west Brazil) to central Brazil, with the highest occurrence of windthrows in the northwest Amazon. More frequent winds, produced by more frequent severe convective systems, in combination with well-known processes that limit the anchoring of trees in the soil, help to explain the higher vulnerability of the northwest Amazon forests to winds. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of convective storms in the Amazon have the potential to increase wind-related tree mortality. A forest demographic model calibrated for the northwestern and the central Amazon showed that northwestern forests are more resilient to increased wind-related tree mortality than forests in the central Amazon. Our study emphasizes the importance of including wind-related tree mortality in model simulations for reliable predictions of the future of tropical forests and their effects on the Earth’ system.

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Temporal Dynamics in the Concentration, Flux, and Optical Properties of Tree-derived Dissolved Organic Matter (Tree-DOM) in an Epiphyte-laden Oak-cedar Forest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitetree, A.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Wagner, S.; Guillemette, F.; Lewis, J.; Silva, L.; Stubbins, A.

2017-12-01

Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched compared to rainfall and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with FDOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g-C m-2 yr-1) compared well to other yields along the rainfall-to- discharge flow pathway, exceeding DOM yields from some river watersheds.

Differences between standing and downed dead tree wood density reduction factors: A comparison across decay classes and tree species

Treesearch

Mark E. Harmon; Christopher W. Woodall; Becky Fasth; Jay Sexton; Misha Yatkov

2011-01-01

Woody detritus or dead wood is an important part of forest ecosystems and has become a routine facet of forest monitoring and inventory. Biomass and carbon estimates of dead wood depend on knowledge of species- and decay class-specifi c density or density reduction factors. While some progress has been made in determining these parameters for dead and downed trees (DD...

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees.

PubMed

Martínez-Aquino, Andrés

2016-08-01

Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host-parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a "compass" when "walking" through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees.

Phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies: a compass for exploring jungles of tangled trees

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetics is used to detect past evolutionary events, from how species originated to how their ecological interactions with other species arose, which can mirror cophylogenetic patterns. Cophylogenetic reconstructions uncover past ecological relationships between taxa through inferred coevolutionary events on trees, for example, codivergence, duplication, host-switching, and loss. These events can be detected by cophylogenetic analyses based on nodes and the length and branching pattern of the phylogenetic trees of symbiotic associations, for example, host–parasite. In the past 2 decades, algorithms have been developed for cophylogetenic analyses and implemented in different software, for example, statistical congruence index and event-based methods. Based on the combination of these approaches, it is possible to integrate temporal information into cophylogenetical inference, such as estimates of lineage divergence times between 2 taxa, for example, hosts and parasites. Additionally, the advances in phylogenetic biogeography applying methods based on parametric process models and combined Bayesian approaches, can be useful for interpreting coevolutionary histories in a scenario of biogeographical area connectivity through time. This article briefly reviews the basics of parasitology and provides an overview of software packages in cophylogenetic methods. Thus, the objective here is to present a phylogenetic framework for coevolutionary studies, with special emphasis on groups of parasitic organisms. Researchers wishing to undertake phylogeny-based coevolutionary studies can use this review as a “compass” when “walking” through jungles of tangled phylogenetic trees. PMID:29491928

Comparing Phylogenetic Trees by Matching Nodes Using the Transfer Distance Between Partitions.

PubMed

Bogdanowicz, Damian; Giaro, Krzysztof

2017-05-01

Ability to quantify dissimilarity of different phylogenetic trees describing the relationship between the same group of taxa is required in various types of phylogenetic studies. For example, such metrics are used to assess the quality of phylogeny construction methods, to define optimization criteria in supertree building algorithms, or to find horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events. Among the set of metrics described so far in the literature, the most commonly used seems to be the Robinson-Foulds distance. In this article, we define a new metric for rooted trees-the Matching Pair (MP) distance. The MP metric uses the concept of the minimum-weight perfect matching in a complete bipartite graph constructed from partitions of all pairs of leaves of the compared phylogenetic trees. We analyze the properties of the MP metric and present computational experiments showing its potential applicability in tasks related to finding the HGT events.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, G.; Frank, D.; Buentgen, U.; Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Pfister, C.; Esper, J.

2009-09-01

In this project three different summer temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies across the European Alpine region were compiled and analyzed to make a calendar of extreme warm and cold summers. We identified 100 extreme events during the past millennium from the tree ring data, and 44 extreme years during the 1550-2003 period based upon tree-ring, documentary and instrumental evidence. Comparisons with long instrumental series and documentary evidence verify the tree-ring extremes and indicate the possibility to use this dataset towards a better understanding of the characteristics prior to the instrumental period. Potential links between the occurrence of extreme events over Alps and anomalous large-scale patterns were explored and indicate that the average pattern of the 20 warmest summers (over the 1700-2002 period) describes maximum positive anomalies over Central Europe, whereas the average pattern of the 20 coldest summers shows maximum negative anomalies over Western Europe. Challenges with the present approach included determining an appropriate classification scheme for extreme events and the development of a methodology able to identify and characterize the occurrence of extreme episodes back in time. As a future step, our approach will be extended to help verify the sparse documentary data from the beginning of the past millennium and will be used in conjunction with climate models to assess model capabilities in reproducing characteristics of temperature extremes.

Tree rings reveal a major episode of forest mortality in the late 18th century on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Ouya; Alfaro, René I.; Zhang, Qi-Bin

2018-04-01

There is a growing research interest on studying forest mortality in relation to ongoing climate warming, but little is known about such events in past history. The study of past forest mortality provides valuable information for determining baselines that establish the normal parameters of functioning in forest ecosystems. Here we report a major episode of previously undocumented forest mortality in the late 18th century on the northern Tibetan Plateau, China. The event was not spatially uniform, in which a more severe mortality happened in dryer sites. We used dendrochronology to compare radial growth trajectories of individual trees from 11 sites in the region, and found that many trees showed positive growth trend, or growth release, during 1796-1800 CE. Growth releases are a proxy indicator of stand thinning caused by tree mortality. The growth release was preceded by an almost two-decade long growth reduction. Long-term drought related to weakened North Atlantic Oscillation and frequent El Niño events are the likely factors causing the tree mortality in a large area of the plateau. Our findings suggest that, besides the effect of drought in the late 18th century, large-scale forest mortality may be an additional factor that further deteriorated the environment and increased the intensity of dust storms.

Updated precipitation reconstruction (AD 1482-2012) for Huashan, north-central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng; Zhang, Ruibo; Wang, Huiqin; Qin, Li; Yuan, Yujiang

2016-02-01

We developed a tree-ring width chronology from pine trees ( Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandii) stand near the peaks of Huashan, Shaanxi, north-central China. Growth-climate response analyses showed that the radial growth of pine trees is mainly influenced by April-June precipitation. A model to reconstruct precipitation based on tree widths was constructed, accounting for 55 % of the instrumental variance during the period 1953-2012. Spatial correlation analyses between the reconstruction and observed gridded precipitation data shows that the seasonal precipitation reconstruction captures regional climatic variations over north China. Compared with the historical archives and other tree-ring records in north China, many large-scale drought events, linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were found. Many of these events have had profound impacts on the people of north China over the past several centuries. Composite maps of sea surface temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights for selected extremely dry and wet years in Huashan show characteristics similar to those related to the ENSO patterns, particularly with regard to ocean and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial and north Pacific. Our 531-year precipitation reconstruction for Huashan provides a long-term perspective on current and 20th century wet and dry events in north China, and is useful to guide expectations of future variability, and helps us to address climate change.

Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; K. Zhu; J.A. Westfall; C.M. Oswalt; A.W. D' Amato; B.F. Walters; H.E. Lintz

2013-01-01

Shifts in tree species ranges may occur due to global climate change, which in turn may be exacerbated by natural disturbance events. Within the context of global climate change, developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances may enable mitigation/adaptation of projected impacts. Using a forest inventory across the eastern U.S...

Biological control reduces growth, and alters water relations of the saltcedar tree (Tamarix spp.) in western Nevada, USA

Treesearch

R.R. Pattison; C.M. D' Antonio; T.L. Dudley

2011-01-01

We monitored the impacts of a biological control agent, the saltcedar leaf beetle (Diorhabda carinulata), on the saltcedar tree (Tamarix spp.) at two sites (Humboldt and Walker rivers) in Nevada, USA. At the Humboldt site trees that had experienced three to four defoliation events had more negative water potentials and lower...

Vernal freeze damage and genetic variation alter tree growth, chemistry, and insect interactions.

PubMed

Rubert-Nason, Kennedy F; Couture, John J; Gryzmala, Elizabeth A; Townsend, Philip A; Lindroth, Richard L

2017-11-01

Anticipated consequences of climate change in temperate regions include early spring warmup punctuated by intermittent hard freezes. Warm weather accelerates leaf flush in perennial woody species, potentially exposing vulnerable young tissues to damaging frosts. We employed a 2 × 6 randomized factorial design to examine how the interplay of vernal (springtime) freeze damage and genetic variation in a hardwood species (Populus tremuloides) influences tree growth, phytochemistry, and interactions with an insect herbivore (Chaitophorus stevensis). Acute effects of freezing included defoliation and mortality. Surviving trees exhibited reduced growth and altered biomass distribution. Reflushed leaves on these trees had lower mass per area, lower lignin concentrations, and higher nitrogen concentrations, altered chemical defence profiles, and supported faster aphid population growth. Many effects varied among plant genotypes and were related with herbivore performance. This study suggests that a single damaging vernal freeze event can alter tree-insect interactions through effects on plant growth and chemistry. Differential responses of various genotypes to freeze damage suggest that more frequent vernal freeze events could also influence natural selection, favouring trees with greater freeze hardiness, and more resistance or tolerance to herbivores following damage. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of hybridization in facilitating tree invasion

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Hybridization events can generate additional genetic diversity upon which natural selection can act and at times enhance invasiveness of the species. Invasive tree species are a growing ecological concern worldwide, and some of these invasions involve hybridization events pre- or post-introduction. There are 20 hybrid invasive tree taxa in 15 genera (11 plant families) discussed here. When reported, abundance of hybrids comprised 10–100 % of an invasion, the remainder being parental taxa. In seven hybrid taxa, researchers identified phenotypes that may make hybrids better invaders. Twelve hybrid tree taxa involved introgression and more hybrids involved all non-native taxa than native × non-native taxa. Three hybrid tree taxa were the result of intentional crosses, and all hybrid taxa involved intentional introduction of either one or more parental taxon or the hybrid itself. The knowledge gaps present in some hybrid tree taxa can weaken our effectiveness in predicting and controlling invasions, as hybrids can add a level of complexity to an invasion by being morphologically cryptic, causing genetic pollution of a native parental taxon, presenting novel genotypes for which there may not be coevolved biological control agents, or evolving adaptive traits through increased genetic variation. PMID:28028055

Tree-ring δ13C and δ18O, leaf δ13C and wood and leaf N status demonstrate tree growth strategies and predict susceptibility to disturbance

PubMed Central

Billings, S.A.; Boone, A.S.; Stephen, F.M.

2016-01-01

Understanding how tree growth strategies may influence tree susceptibility to disturbance is an important goal, especially given projected increases in diverse ecological disturbances this century. We use growth responses of tree rings to climate, relationships between tree-ring stable isotopic signatures of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O), wood nitrogen concentration [N], and contemporary leaf [N] and δ13C values to assess potential historic drivers of tree photosynthesis in dying and apparently healthy co-occurring northern red oak (Quercus rubra L. (Fagaceae)) during a region-wide oak decline event in Arkansas, USA. Bole growth of both healthy and dying trees responded negatively to drought severity (Palmer Drought Severity Index) and temperature; healthy trees exhibited a positive, but small, response to growing season precipitation. Contrary to expectations, tree-ring δ13C did not increase with drought severity. A significantly positive relationship between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O was evident in dying trees (P < 0.05) but not in healthy trees. Healthy trees’ wood exhibited lower [N] than that of dying trees throughout most of their lives (P < 0.05), and we observed a significant, positive relationship (P < 0.05) in healthy trees between contemporary leaf δ13C and leaf N (by mass), but not in dying trees. Our work provides evidence that for plants in which strong relationships between δ13C and δ18O are not evident, δ13C may be governed by plant N status. The data further imply that historic photosynthesis in healthy trees was linked to N status and, perhaps, C sink strength to a greater extent than in dying trees, in which tree-ring stable isotopes suggest that historic photosynthesis was governed primarily by stomatal regulation. This, in turn, suggests that assessing the relative dominance of photosynthetic capacity vs stomatal regulation as drivers of trees’ C accrual may be a feasible means of predicting tree responses to some disturbance events. Our work demonstrates that a dual isotope, tree-ring approach can be integrated with tree N status to begin to unravel a fundamental question in forest ecology: why do some trees die during a disturbance, while other conspecifics with apparently similar access to resources remain healthy? PMID:26960389

How different are the results acquired from mathematical and subjective methods in dendrogeomorphology? Insights from landslide movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šilhán, Karel

2016-01-01

Knowledge of past landslide activity is crucial for understanding landslide behaviour and for modelling potential future landslide occurrence. Dendrogeomorphic approaches represent the most precise methods of landslide dating (where trees annually create tree-rings in the timescale of up to several hundred years). Despite the advantages of these methods, many open questions remain. One of the less researched uncertainties, and the focus of this study, is the impact of two common methods of geomorphic signal extraction on the spatial and temporal results of landslide reconstruction. In total, 93 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees were sampled at one landslide location dominated by block-type movements in the forefield of the Orlické hory Mts., Bohemian Massif. Landslide signals were examined by the classical subjective method based on reaction (compression) wood analysis and by a numerical method based on eccentric growth analysis. The chronology of landslide movements obtained by the mathematical method resulted in twice the number of events detected compared to the subjective method. This finding indicates that eccentric growth is a more accurate indicator for landslide movements than the classical analysis of reaction wood. The reconstructed spatial activity of landslide movements shows a similar distribution of recurrence intervals (Ri) for both methods. The differences (maximally 30% of the total Ri ranges) in results obtained by both methods may be caused by differences in the ability of trees to react to tilting of their stems by a specific growth response (reaction wood formation or eccentric growth). Finally, the ability of trees to record tilting events (by both growth responses) in their tree-ring series was analysed for different decades of tree life. The highest sensitivity to external tilting events occurred at tree ages from 70 to 80 years for reaction wood formation and from 80 to 90 years for eccentric growth response. This means that the ability of P. abies to record geomorphic signals varies with not only eccentric growth responses but also with age.

Drug safety data mining with a tree-based scan statistic.

PubMed

Kulldorff, Martin; Dashevsky, Inna; Avery, Taliser R; Chan, Arnold K; Davis, Robert L; Graham, David; Platt, Richard; Andrade, Susan E; Boudreau, Denise; Gunter, Margaret J; Herrinton, Lisa J; Pawloski, Pamala A; Raebel, Marsha A; Roblin, Douglas; Brown, Jeffrey S

2013-05-01

In post-marketing drug safety surveillance, data mining can potentially detect rare but serious adverse events. Assessing an entire collection of drug-event pairs is traditionally performed on a predefined level of granularity. It is unknown a priori whether a drug causes a very specific or a set of related adverse events, such as mitral valve disorders, all valve disorders, or different types of heart disease. This methodological paper evaluates the tree-based scan statistic data mining method to enhance drug safety surveillance. We use a three-million-member electronic health records database from the HMO Research Network. Using the tree-based scan statistic, we assess the safety of selected antifungal and diabetes drugs, simultaneously evaluating overlapping diagnosis groups at different granularity levels, adjusting for multiple testing. Expected and observed adverse event counts were adjusted for age, sex, and health plan, producing a log likelihood ratio test statistic. Out of 732 evaluated disease groupings, 24 were statistically significant, divided among 10 non-overlapping disease categories. Five of the 10 signals are known adverse effects, four are likely due to confounding by indication, while one may warrant further investigation. The tree-based scan statistic can be successfully applied as a data mining tool in drug safety surveillance using observational data. The total number of statistical signals was modest and does not imply a causal relationship. Rather, data mining results should be used to generate candidate drug-event pairs for rigorous epidemiological studies to evaluate the individual and comparative safety profiles of drugs. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Environmental controls in the water use patterns of a tropical cloud forest tree species, Drimys brasiliensis (Winteraceae).

PubMed

Eller, Cleiton B; Burgess, Stephen S O; Oliveira, Rafael S

2015-04-01

Trees from tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) display very dynamic patterns of water use. They are capable of downwards water transport towards the soil during leaf-wetting events, likely a consequence of foliar water uptake (FWU), as well as high rates of night-time transpiration (Enight) during drier nights. These two processes might represent important sources of water losses and gains to the plant, but little is known about the environmental factors controlling these water fluxes. We evaluated how contrasting atmospheric and soil water conditions control diurnal, nocturnal and seasonal dynamics of sap flow in Drimys brasiliensis (Miers), a common Neotropical cloud forest species. We monitored the seasonal variation of soil water content, micrometeorological conditions and sap flow of D. brasiliensis trees in the field during wet and dry seasons. We also conducted a greenhouse experiment exposing D. brasiliensis saplings under contrasting soil water conditions to deuterium-labelled fog water. We found that during the night D. brasiliensis possesses heightened stomatal sensitivity to soil drought and vapour pressure deficit, which reduces night-time water loss. Leaf-wetting events had a strong suppressive effect on tree transpiration (E). Foliar water uptake increased in magnitude with drier soil and during longer leaf-wetting events. The difference between diurnal and nocturnal stomatal behaviour in D. brasiliensis could be attributed to an optimization of carbon gain when leaves are dry, as well as minimization of nocturnal water loss. The leaf-wetting events on the other hand seem important to D. brasiliensis water balance, especially during soil droughts, both by suppressing tree transpiration (E) and as a small additional water supply through FWU. Our results suggest that decreases in leaf-wetting events in TMCF might increase D. brasiliensis water loss and decrease its water gains, which could compromise its ecophysiological performance and survival during dry periods. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

Fire safety in transit systems fault tree analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-09-01

Fire safety countermeasures applicable to transit vehicles are identified and evaluated. This document contains fault trees which illustrate the sequences of events which may lead to a transit-fire related casualty. A description of the basis for the...

Evolutionary Inference across Eukaryotes Identifies Specific Pressures Favoring Mitochondrial Gene Retention.

PubMed

Johnston, Iain G; Williams, Ben P

2016-02-24

Since their endosymbiotic origin, mitochondria have lost most of their genes. Although many selective mechanisms underlying the evolution of mitochondrial genomes have been proposed, a data-driven exploration of these hypotheses is lacking, and a quantitatively supported consensus remains absent. We developed HyperTraPS, a methodology coupling stochastic modeling with Bayesian inference, to identify the ordering of evolutionary events and suggest their causes. Using 2015 complete mitochondrial genomes, we inferred evolutionary trajectories of mtDNA gene loss across the eukaryotic tree of life. We find that proteins comprising the structural cores of the electron transport chain are preferentially encoded within mitochondrial genomes across eukaryotes. A combination of high GC content and high protein hydrophobicity is required to explain patterns of mtDNA gene retention; a model that accounts for these selective pressures can also predict the success of artificial gene transfer experiments in vivo. This work provides a general method for data-driven inference of the ordering of evolutionary and progressive events, here identifying the distinct features shaping mitochondrial genomes of present-day species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond the extreme: Recovery dynamics following heat and drought stress in trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruehr, N.; Duarte, A. G.; Arneth, A.

2016-12-01

Plant recovery processes following extreme events can have profound impacts on forest carbon and water cycling. However, large knowledge gaps persist on recovery dynamics of tree physiological processes following heat and drought stress. To date, few experimental studies exist that include recovery responses in stress research. We synthesized recent research on tree recovery processes related to carbon and water exchange following heat and drought stress, and show that the intensity of stress can affect the pace of recovery with large variations among tree species and processes. Following stress release, leaf water potential recovers instantaneously upon rewatering as found in most studies. Transpiration (T), stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) often lag behind, with lowest recovery following severe stress. Interestingly, the patterns in heat and drought stress recovery apparently differ. While A recovers generally more quickly than gs following drought, which increases water-use-efficiency, both gs and A tend to remain reduced following heat events. The pace of recovery following heat events likely depends on water availability during stress and temperature maxima reached (photosynthetic impairment at temperatures > 40°C). Slow recovery during the initial post-stress days might result from hydraulic limitation and elevated levels of abscisic acid. The mechanisms resulting in a continued impairment of T and gs during a later stage of the recovery period (from weeks up to months) are still elusive. Feedback loops from the photosynthetic machinery, reduced mesophyll conductance or leaf morphological changes may play an important role. In summary, post-stress recovery can substantially affect tree carbon and water cycling. Thus, in order to estimate the impacts of extreme climate events on forest ecosystems in the long-term, we need a better understanding of recovery dynamics and their limitations in terms of stress timing, intensity and duration.

A Multi-stakeholder Approach to Moving Beyond Tree Mortality in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balachowski, J.; Buluc, L.; Fischer, C.; Ko, J.; Ostoja, S.

2017-12-01

The US Forest Service has estimated that 102 million trees have died in California since 2010. This die off event has been attributed to the combined effects of historical land management practices, fire suppression, insect outbreaks, and climate-related stressors. This tree mortality event represents the largest and most significant ecological disturbance in California in centuries, if not longer. Both scientists and managers recognize the need to rethink our approach to forest management in the face of a changing climate and increasingly frequent, uncharacteristically large wildfires, while budgets and staffing capacity continue to decrease. Addressing the uncertainly in managing under climate change with fewer financial resources will require multiple partners and stakeholders—including federal and state agencies, local governments, and non-governmental organizations—to work together to identify common goals and paths moving forward. The USDA California Climate Hub and USFS Region 5 convened a symposium on drought and tree mortality in July 2017. With nearly 170 attendees across a wide range of sectors, the event provided a meaningful opportunity for reflection, analysis, and consideration of next steps. Among the outcomes of this symposium was the identification of areas in which our capacity for individual and synergistic action is stronger, and those in which it is lacking that will thus require additional attention and effort. From this symposium, which included a series of smaller, stakeholder and partner working groups, we collectively identified research and information needs, possible policy adjustments, future management actions, and funding needs and opportunities. Here, we present these findings and suggest approaches for addressing the current tree mortality event based on the shared interests of multiple, diverse stakeholder groups.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarrack, A.G.

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses tomore » calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).« less

Graphical fault tree analysis for fatal falls in the construction industry.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Lin, Syuan-Zih; Dewi, Ratna Sari

2014-11-01

The current study applied a fault tree analysis to represent the causal relationships among events and causes that contributed to fatal falls in the construction industry. Four hundred and eleven work-related fatalities in the Taiwanese construction industry were analyzed in terms of age, gender, experience, falling site, falling height, company size, and the causes for each fatality. Given that most fatal accidents involve multiple events, the current study coded up to a maximum of three causes for each fall fatality. After the Boolean algebra and minimal cut set analyses, accident causes associated with each falling site can be presented as a fault tree to provide an overview of the basic causes, which could trigger fall fatalities in the construction industry. Graphical icons were designed for each falling site along with the associated accident causes to illustrate the fault tree in a graphical manner. A graphical fault tree can improve inter-disciplinary discussion of risk management and the communication of accident causation to first line supervisors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using inventory data to determine the impact of drought on tree mortality

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

2012-01-01

Drought has been the subject of numerous recent studies that hint at an acceleration of tree mortality due to climate change. In particular, a recent global survey of tree mortality events implicates drought as the cause of quaking aspen mortality in Minnesota, USA in 2007. In this study, data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the USDA Forest Service...

Correlation Between the System Capabilities Analytic Process (SCAP) and the Missions and Means Framework (MMF)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

specifics of the correlation will be explored followed by discussion of new paradigms— the ordered event list (OEL) and the decision tree — that result from...4.2.1  Brief Overview of the Decision Tree Paradigm ................................................15  4.2.2  OEL Explained...6  Figure 3. A depiction of a notional fault/activation tree . ................................................................7

Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds

Treesearch

Lindsay M. Grayson; Robert A. Progar; Sharon M. Hood

2017-01-01

Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few...

Continental-scale consequences of tree die-offs in North America: identifying where forest loss matters most

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, Abigail L. S.; Laguë, Marysa M.; Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Field, Jason P.; Breshears, David D.; Moore, David J. P.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Law, Darin J.; Minor, David M.

2018-05-01

Regional-scale tree die-off events driven by drought and warming and associated pests and pathogens have occurred recently on all forested continents and are projected to increase in frequency and extent with future warming. Within areas where tree mortality has occurred, ecological, hydrological and meteorological consequences are increasingly being documented. However, the potential for tree die-off to impact vegetation processes and related carbon dynamics in areas remote to where die-off occurs has rarely been systematically evaluated, particularly for multiple distinct regions within a given continent. Such remote impacts can occur when climate effects of local vegetation change are propagated by atmospheric circulation—the phenomena of ‘ecoclimate teleconnections’. We simulated tree die-off events in the 13 most densely forested US regions (selected from the 20 US National Ecological Observatory Network [NEON] domains) and found that tree die-off even for smaller regions has potential to affect climate and hence Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) in disparate regions (NEON domains), either positively or negatively. Some regions exhibited strong teleconnections to several others, and some regions were relatively sensitive to tree loss regardless of what other region the tree loss occurred in. For the US as a whole, loss of trees in the Pacific Southwest—an area undergoing rapid tree die-off—had the largest negative impact on remote US GPP whereas loss of trees in the Mid-Atlantic had the largest positive impact. This research lays a foundation for hypotheses that identify how the effects of tree die-off (or other types of tree loss such as deforestation) can ricochet across regions by revealing hot-spots of forcing and response. Such modes of connectivity have direct applicability for improving models of climate change impacts and for developing more informed and coordinated carbon accounting across regions.

Fault Network Reconstruction using Agglomerative Clustering: Applications to South Californian Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamer, Yavor; Ouillon, Guy; Sornette, Didier; Wössner, Jochen

2014-05-01

We present applications of a new clustering method for fault network reconstruction based on the spatial distribution of seismicity. Unlike common approaches that start from the simplest large scale and gradually increase the complexity trying to explain the small scales, our method uses a bottom-up approach, by an initial sampling of the small scales and then reducing the complexity. The new approach also exploits the location uncertainty associated with each event in order to obtain a more accurate representation of the spatial probability distribution of the seismicity. For a given dataset, we first construct an agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) tree based on Ward's minimum variance linkage. Such a tree starts out with one cluster and progressively branches out into an increasing number of clusters. To atomize the structure into its constitutive protoclusters, we initialize a Gaussian Mixture Modeling (GMM) at a given level of the hierarchical clustering tree. We then let the GMM converge using an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The kernels that become ill defined (less than 4 points) at the end of the EM are discarded. By incrementing the number of initialization clusters (by atomizing at increasingly populated levels of the AHC tree) and repeating the procedure above, we are able to determine the maximum number of Gaussian kernels the structure can hold. The kernels in this configuration constitute our protoclusters. In this setting, merging of any pair will lessen the likelihood (calculated over the pdf of the kernels) but in turn will reduce the model's complexity. The information loss/gain of any possible merging can thus be quantified based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. Similar to an inter-distance matrix, where the matrix element di,j gives the distance between points i and j, we can construct a MDL gain/loss matrix where mi,j gives the information gain/loss resulting from the merging of kernels i and j. Based on this matrix, merging events resulting in MDL gain are performed in descending order until no gainful merging is possible anymore. We envision that the results of this study could lead to a better understanding of the complex interactions within the Californian fault system and hopefully use the acquired insights for earthquake forecasting.

CUTSETS - MINIMAL CUT SET CALCULATION FOR DIGRAPH AND FAULT TREE RELIABILITY MODELS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, D. L.

1994-01-01

Fault tree and digraph models are frequently used for system failure analysis. Both type of models represent a failure space view of the system using AND and OR nodes in a directed graph structure. Fault trees must have a tree structure and do not allow cycles or loops in the graph. Digraphs allow any pattern of interconnection between loops in the graphs. A common operation performed on digraph and fault tree models is the calculation of minimal cut sets. A cut set is a set of basic failures that could cause a given target failure event to occur. A minimal cut set for a target event node in a fault tree or digraph is any cut set for the node with the property that if any one of the failures in the set is removed, the occurrence of the other failures in the set will not cause the target failure event. CUTSETS will identify all the minimal cut sets for a given node. The CUTSETS package contains programs that solve for minimal cut sets of fault trees and digraphs using object-oriented programming techniques. These cut set codes can be used to solve graph models for reliability analysis and identify potential single point failures in a modeled system. The fault tree minimal cut set code reads in a fault tree model input file with each node listed in a text format. In the input file the user specifies a top node of the fault tree and a maximum cut set size to be calculated. CUTSETS will find minimal sets of basic events which would cause the failure at the output of a given fault tree gate. The program can find all the minimal cut sets of a node, or minimal cut sets up to a specified size. The algorithm performs a recursive top down parse of the fault tree, starting at the specified top node, and combines the cut sets of each child node into sets of basic event failures that would cause the failure event at the output of that gate. Minimal cut set solutions can be found for all nodes in the fault tree or just for the top node. The digraph cut set code uses the same techniques as the fault tree cut set code, except it includes all upstream digraph nodes in the cut sets for a given node and checks for cycles in the digraph during the solution process. CUTSETS solves for specified nodes and will not automatically solve for all upstream digraph nodes. The cut sets will be output as a text file. CUTSETS includes a utility program that will convert the popular COD format digraph model description files into text input files suitable for use with the CUTSETS programs. FEAT (MSC-21873) and FIRM (MSC-21860) available from COSMIC are examples of programs that produce COD format digraph model description files that may be converted for use with the CUTSETS programs. CUTSETS is written in C-language to be machine independent. It has been successfully implemented on a Sun running SunOS, a DECstation running ULTRIX, a Macintosh running System 7, and a DEC VAX running VMS. The RAM requirement varies with the size of the models. CUTSETS is available in UNIX tar format on a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge (standard distribution) or on a 3.5 inch diskette. It is also available on a 3.5 inch Macintosh format diskette or on a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in DEC VAX FILES-11 format. Sample input and sample output are provided on the distribution medium. An electronic copy of the documentation in Macintosh Microsoft Word format is included on the distribution medium. Sun and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. DEC, DeCstation, ULTRIX, VAX, and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc.

Novel Insights into Tree Biology and Genome Evolution as Revealed Through Genomics.

PubMed

Neale, David B; Martínez-García, Pedro J; De La Torre, Amanda R; Montanari, Sara; Wei, Xiao-Xin

2017-04-28

Reference genome sequences are the key to the discovery of genes and gene families that determine traits of interest. Recent progress in sequencing technologies has enabled a rapid increase in genome sequencing of tree species, allowing the dissection of complex characters of economic importance, such as fruit and wood quality and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Although the number of reference genome sequences for trees lags behind those for other plant species, it is not too early to gain insight into the unique features that distinguish trees from nontree plants. Our review of the published data suggests that, although many gene families are conserved among herbaceous and tree species, some gene families, such as those involved in resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses and in the synthesis and transport of sugars, are often expanded in tree genomes. As the genomes of more tree species are sequenced, comparative genomics will further elucidate the complexity of tree genomes and how this relates to traits unique to trees.

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis.

PubMed

Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C

2015-06-01

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Management of almond leaf scorch disease: long term data on yield, tree vitality, and disease progress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Almond leaf scorch (ALS) disease has been a chronic problem for California almond growers. This disease is caused by the bacterial pathogen Xylella fastidiosa and is transmitted by xylem-feeding insects. Previous research suggested that retaining, rather than roguing, ALS-affected trees may be more ...

Oak decline around the world

Treesearch

Kurt W. Gottschalk; Philip M. Wargo

1997-01-01

Oak (Quercus spp.) decline is a malady related to the consequences of stress and successful attack of stressed trees by opportunistic (secondary) organisms (Wargo et al. 1983). It is a progressive process where trees decline in health for several years before they die. Houston (1981) developed a model of declines that is presented in Figure 1. So...

Progress in developing Armillaria resistant rootstocks for use with peach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

GuardianTM (BY520-9) peach seedling rootstock was released in 1993 to provide a rootstock with superior resistance to peach tree short life (PTSL) which at the time was the number one cause of premature death of peach (Prunus persica L. [Batsch]) trees in the southeastern US. Since that time Guardi...

Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Pinus elliottii Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

2012-12-01

The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation-driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations, and disturbance events, such as tropical cyclone impacts. Because slash pine growth is dependent on water availability, a chronology developed using carbon isotopes may provide greater insight into plant stress over time and ultimately may lead to better correlations with climate oscillations. The work presented here is the result of a carbon-isotope study of four slash pine trees located across a freshwater gradient on Big Pine Key, Florida. A site chronology has been developed by cross-dating the δ13C records for each of the trees. The tree located on the distal edge of the freshwater gradient shows an overall enriched isotopic signature over time compared to the trees growing over a deeper part of the local freshwater lens, indicating that these trees are sensitive to water stress. In addition, the carbon isotope data show seasonal stomatal activity in the trees and indicate the timing of two disturbance events.

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Probability of a Gene Tree Topology within a Phylogenetic Network with Applications to Hybridization Detection

PubMed Central

Yu, Yun; Degnan, James H.; Nakhleh, Luay

2012-01-01

Gene tree topologies have proven a powerful data source for various tasks, including species tree inference and species delimitation. Consequently, methods for computing probabilities of gene trees within species trees have been developed and widely used in probabilistic inference frameworks. All these methods assume an underlying multispecies coalescent model. However, when reticulate evolutionary events such as hybridization occur, these methods are inadequate, as they do not account for such events. Methods that account for both hybridization and deep coalescence in computing the probability of a gene tree topology currently exist for very limited cases. However, no such methods exist for general cases, owing primarily to the fact that it is currently unknown how to compute the probability of a gene tree topology within the branches of a phylogenetic network. Here we present a novel method for computing the probability of gene tree topologies on phylogenetic networks and demonstrate its application to the inference of hybridization in the presence of incomplete lineage sorting. We reanalyze a Saccharomyces species data set for which multiple analyses had converged on a species tree candidate. Using our method, though, we show that an evolutionary hypothesis involving hybridization in this group has better support than one of strict divergence. A similar reanalysis on a group of three Drosophila species shows that the data is consistent with hybridization. Further, using extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the power of gene tree topologies at obtaining accurate estimates of branch lengths and hybridization probabilities of a given phylogenetic network. Finally, we discuss identifiability issues with detecting hybridization, particularly in cases that involve extinction or incomplete sampling of taxa. PMID:22536161

Effects of Interannual Climate Variability on Water Availability and Productivity in Capoeira and Crops Under Traditional and Alternative Shifting Cultivation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guild, Liane S.; Sa, Tatiana D. A.; Carvalho, Claudio J. R.; Potter, Christopher S.; Wickel, Albert J.; Brienza, Silvio, Jr.; Kato, Maria doSocorro A.; Kato, Osvaldo; Brass, James (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Regenerating forests play an important role in long-term carbon sequestration and sustainable landuse as they act as potentially important carbon and nutrient sinks during the shifting agriculture fallow period. The long-term functioning of capoeira. is increasingly threatened by a shortening fallow period during shifting cultivation due to demographic pressures and associated increased vulnerability to severe climatic events. Declining productivity and functioning of fallow forests of shifting cultivation combined with progressive loss of nutrients by successive burning and cropping activities has resulted in declining agricultural productivity. In addition to the effects of intense land use practices, droughts associated with El Nino events are becoming more frequent and severe in moist tropical forests and negative effects on capoeira productivity could be considerable. In Igarape-Acu (near Belem, Para), we hypothesize that experimental alternative landuse/clearing practices (mulching and fallow vegetation improvement by planting with fast-growing leguminous tree species) may make capoeira and agriculture more resilient to the effects of agricultural pressures and drought through (1) increased biomass, soil organic matter and associated increase in soil water storage, and nutrient retention and (2) greater rooting depth of trees planted for fallow improvement. This experimental practice (moto mechanized chop-and-mulch with fallow improvement) has resulted increased soil moisture during the cropping phase, reduced loss of nutrients and organic matter, and higher rates of secondary-forest biomass accumulation. We present preliminary data on water relations during the dry season of 2001 in capoeira and crops for both traditional slash-and-burn and alternative chop-and-mulch practices. These data will be used to test IKONOS data for the detection of moisture status differences. The principal goal of the research is to determine the extent to which capoeira and agricultural fields are susceptible to extreme climate events (drought) under contrasting landuse/clearing practices.

Comparison of rainfall and stemflow peak intensities and infiltration patterns for a mature coastal forest in British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meerveld, Ilja; Spencer, Sheena

2017-04-01

Most studies on stemflow have focused on the amount of stemflow in different forests or for different rainfall events. So far, few studies have looked at how stemflow intensity varies during rainfall events and how peak stemflow intensities compare to peak rainfall intensities. High stemflow intensities at the base of the tree, where roots and other preferential flow pathways are prevalent, may lead to faster and deeper infiltration of stemflow than rainfall and thus affect soil moisture dynamics and potentially also subsurface stormflow generation. We measured stemflow intensities for three Western hemlock, two Western red cedar, two Douglas-fir and one Birch tree in a mature coniferous forest in coastal British Columbia to determine how stemflow intensities were related to rainfall intensity. We sprayed a blue dye tracer on two Western hemlock trees (29 and 52 cm diameter at breast height (DBH)) to determine how stemflow water flows through the soil and to what depth it infiltrates. We also applied the blue dye tracer to an area between the trees to compare infiltration of stemflow with rainfall. Stemflow increased linearly with event total precipitation for all trees. The larger trees almost exclusively had funneling ratios (i.e. the volume of stemflow per unit basal area divided by the rainfall) smaller than one, regardless of species and event size. The funneling ratios for the small trees were generally larger for larger events (up to a funneling ratio of 20) but there was considerable scatter in this relation. Trees with a DBH <35 cm, which represent 24% of the total basal area of the study site, contributed 72% of the estimated total stemflow amount. Stemflow intensities (volume of stemflow per unit basal area per hour) often increased in a stepwise manner. When there were two precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was usually highest during the second precipitation burst. However, when there were several hours of very low rainfall intensity between consecutive precipitation bursts, stemflow intensity was lower during the first burst after the break in rainfall. Peak stemflow intensities were higher than the maximum precipitation intensity. The blue dye that was applied to the tree stems was found more frequently at depth than near the soil surface. Stemflow flowed primarily through the 10 cm organic rich upper layer of the soil around the tree before flowing between or along live and dead roots, inside dead roots, around rocks and boulders deeper into the soil. Lateral flow was observed above a dense clay layer but where roots were able to penetrate the clay layer, the infiltrating water flowed deeper into the soil and (almost) reached the soil-bedrock interface. Stemflow appeared to infiltrate deeper (122 cm) than rainfall (85 cm) but this difference was in part due to variations in maximum soil depth. These results suggest that even though stemflow is only a minor component of the water balance, the double funnelling of stemflow may significantly affect soil moisture, recharge and runoff generation.

Phenology of Pacific Northwest tree species

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Kevin Ford; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events. For foresters, the most commonly observed phenological events are budburst, flowering, and leaf fall, but other harder to observe events, such as diameter-growth initiation, are also important. Most events that occur in the spring are influenced by past exposure to cool (chilling) temperatures and...

Simple chained guide trees give high-quality protein multiple sequence alignments

PubMed Central

Boyce, Kieran; Sievers, Fabian; Higgins, Desmond G.

2014-01-01

Guide trees are used to decide the order of sequence alignment in the progressive multiple sequence alignment heuristic. These guide trees are often the limiting factor in making large alignments, and considerable effort has been expended over the years in making these quickly or accurately. In this article we show that, at least for protein families with large numbers of sequences that can be benchmarked with known structures, simple chained guide trees give the most accurate alignments. These also happen to be the fastest and simplest guide trees to construct, computationally. Such guide trees have a striking effect on the accuracy of alignments produced by some of the most widely used alignment packages. There is a marked increase in accuracy and a marked decrease in computational time, once the number of sequences goes much above a few hundred. This is true, even if the order of sequences in the guide tree is random. PMID:25002495

Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

2010-12-01

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

To live or to die? Evidence of variable drivers of wood d13C reveal different responses to disturbance in co-occurring oaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, A. S.; Stephen, F. M.; Billings, S. A.

2011-12-01

A major oak decline event in recent decades in Northwest Arkansas permits insight into disturbance impacts on forests, which is important for understanding global carbon, nutrient and climate cycles given projections of increasing disturbance event frequency in the future. The decline event, associated with an increase in population of a native, wood-boring insect, followed a cycle of droughts and resulted in a mosaic of apparently healthy red oaks (Quercus rubra) neighboring severely declining trees of the same species. Tree-ring evidence suggests decreased growth rates following increases in the insect's population decades prior to visible external decline symptoms (i.e. decreased crown coverage, mortality), but only in trees destined to die during the insect outbreak. Reasons why some trees experienced mortality and some remained healthy are unclear. Through analysis of stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in wood and leaf δ13C and nitrogen among co-occurring trees, we can infer differential responses of red oaks to disturbance and associated resilience to mortality. Tree-ring a-cellulose δ13C varied from -27.3to -23.0%, and δ18O values varied from 27.5 to 31.8%. Neither δ13C nor δ18O exhibited signficant differences between healthy and declining trees. However, declining trees exhibited a significant, positive relationship between δ13C and δ18O (p <0.05, r2=0.15) prior to peak insect infestation. In contrast, apparently healthy individuals did not exhibit a significant relationship between these parameters, but exhibited significant, positive relationships between current year leaf δ13C and nitrogen content (p<0.05, r2=0.77). These results suggest that healthy and declining trees had different strategies for coping with insect infestation. Correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O in dying trees suggests that trees destined to die during the infestation regulated their δ13C values primarily via stomatal conductance, a mechanism that influences both δ13C and δ18O. In contrast, δ13C values in apparently healthy trees did not vary with δ18O, indicating that stomatal conductance was not an important regulator of δ13C. The linkage between δ13C and nitrogen availability in these trees suggests that carbon sink strength, typically associated with plant nutrient status, may have played a more important role than carbon source strength (i.e. stomatal conductance) in governing tree-ring δ13C. These results suggest that 1) responses to disturbance of co-occurring trees of the same species can diverge in ways discernable decades later via stable isotopic analysis, and 2) the primary driver of wood δ13C values, whether carbon source (stomatal conductance) or sink (fixation capacity) strength, is linked to its fate.

Risk factors for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stage 4 chronic kidney disease treated with bardoxolone methyl.

PubMed

Chin, Melanie P; Wrolstad, Danielle; Bakris, George L; Chertow, Glenn M; de Zeeuw, Dick; Goldsberry, Angie; Linde, Peter G; McCullough, Peter A; McMurray, John J; Wittes, Janet; Meyer, Colin J

2014-12-01

A phase 3 randomized clinical trial was designed to test whether bardoxolone methyl, a nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) activator, slows progression to end-stage renal disease in patients with stage 4 chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The trial was terminated because of an increase in heart failure in the bardoxolone methyl group; many of the events were clinically associated with fluid retention. We randomized 2,185 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and stage 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD) (estimated glomerular filtration rate 15 to <30 mL min(-1) 1.73 m(-2)) to once-daily bardoxolone methyl (20 mg) or placebo. We used classification and regression tree analysis to identify baseline factors predictive of heart failure or fluid overload events. Elevated baseline B-type natriuretic peptide and previous hospitalization for heart failure were identified as predictors of heart failure events; bardoxolone methyl increased the risk of heart failure by 60% in patients with these risk factors. For patients without these baseline characteristics, the risk for heart failure events among bardoxolone methyl- and placebo-treated patients was similar (2%). The same risk factors were also identified as predictors of fluid overload and appeared to be related to other serious adverse events. Bardoxolone methyl contributed to events related to heart failure and/or fluid overload in a subpopulation of susceptible patients with an increased risk for heart failure at baseline. Careful selection of participants and vigilant monitoring of the study drug will be required in any future trials of bardoxolone methyl to mitigate the risk of heart failure and other serious adverse events. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

PubMed

Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

2015-08-01

In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

2016-02-15

Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest.

PubMed

Barlow, Jos; Peres, Carlos A

2008-05-27

The only fully coupled land-atmosphere global climate model predicts a widespread dieback of Amazonian forest cover through reduced precipitation. Although these predictions are controversial, the structural and compositional resilience of Amazonian forests may also have been overestimated, as current vegetation models fail to consider the potential role of fire in the degradation of forest ecosystems. We examine forest structure and composition in the Arapiuns River basin in the central Brazilian Amazon, evaluating post-fire forest recovery and the consequences of recurrent fires for the patterns of dominance of tree species. We surveyed tree plots in unburned and once-burned forests examined 1, 3 and 9 years after an unprecedented fire event, in twice-burned forests examined 3 and 9 years after fire and in thrice-burned forests examined 5 years after the most recent fire event. The number of trees recorded in unburned primary forest control plots was stable over time. However, in both once- and twice-burned forest plots, there was a marked recruitment into the 10-20cm diameter at breast height tree size classes between 3 and 9 years post-fire. Considering tree assemblage composition 9 years after the first fire contact, we observed (i) a clear pattern of community turnover among small trees and the most abundant shrubs and saplings, and (ii) that species that were common in any of the four burn treatments (unburned, once-, twice- and thrice-burned) were often rare or entirely absent in other burn treatments. We conclude that episodic wildfires can lead to drastic changes in forest structure and composition, with cascading shifts in forest composition following each additional fire event. Finally, we use these results to evaluate the validity of the savannization paradigm.

Quantifying tree mortality in a mixed species woodland using multitemporal high spatial resolution satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrity, Steven R.; Allen, Craig D.; Brumby, Steven P.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; McDowell, Nate G.; Cai, D. Michael

2013-01-01

Widespread tree mortality events have recently been observed in several biomes. To effectively quantify the severity and extent of these events, tools that allow for rapid assessment at the landscape scale are required. Past studies using high spatial resolution satellite imagery have primarily focused on detecting green, red, and gray tree canopies during and shortly after tree damage or mortality has occurred. However, detecting trees in various stages of death is not always possible due to limited availability of archived satellite imagery. Here we assess the capability of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for tree mortality detection in a southwestern U.S. mixed species woodland using archived satellite images acquired prior to mortality and well after dead trees had dropped their leaves. We developed a multistep classification approach that uses: supervised masking of non-tree image elements; bi-temporal (pre- and post-mortality) differencing of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and red:green ratio (RGI); and unsupervised multivariate clustering of pixels into live and dead tree classes using a Gaussian mixture model. Classification accuracies were improved in a final step by tuning the rules of pixel classification using the posterior probabilities of class membership obtained from the Gaussian mixture model. Classifications were produced for two images acquired post-mortality with overall accuracies of 97.9% and 98.5%, respectively. Classified images were combined with land cover data to characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of tree mortality across areas with differences in tree species composition. We found that 38% of tree crown area was lost during the drought period between 2002 and 2006. The majority of tree mortality during this period was concentrated in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodlands. An additional 20% of the tree canopy died or was removed between 2006 and 2011, primarily in areas experiencing wildfire and management activity. -Our results demonstrate that unsupervised clustering of bi-temporal NDVI and RGI differences can be used to detect tree mortality resulting from numerous causes and in several forest cover types.

Fault tree analysis of the causes of waterborne outbreaks.

PubMed

Risebro, Helen L; Doria, Miguel F; Andersson, Yvonne; Medema, Gertjan; Osborn, Keith; Schlosser, Olivier; Hunter, Paul R

2007-01-01

Prevention and containment of outbreaks requires examination of the contribution and interrelation of outbreak causative events. An outbreak fault tree was developed and applied to 61 enteric outbreaks related to public drinking water supplies in the EU. A mean of 3.25 causative events per outbreak were identified; each event was assigned a score based on percentage contribution per outbreak. Source and treatment system causative events often occurred concurrently (in 34 outbreaks). Distribution system causative events occurred less frequently (19 outbreaks) but were often solitary events contributing heavily towards the outbreak (a mean % score of 87.42). Livestock and rainfall in the catchment with no/inadequate filtration of water sources contributed concurrently to 11 of 31 Cryptosporidium outbreaks. Of the 23 protozoan outbreaks experiencing at least one treatment causative event, 90% of these events were filtration deficiencies; by contrast, for bacterial, viral, gastroenteritis and mixed pathogen outbreaks, 75% of treatment events were disinfection deficiencies. Roughly equal numbers of groundwater and surface water outbreaks experienced at least one treatment causative event (18 and 17 outbreaks, respectively). Retrospective analysis of multiple outbreaks of enteric disease can be used to inform outbreak investigations, facilitate corrective measures, and further develop multi-barrier approaches.

Fault and event tree analyses for process systems risk analysis: uncertainty handling formulations.

PubMed

Ferdous, Refaul; Khan, Faisal; Sadiq, Rehan; Amyotte, Paul; Veitch, Brian

2011-01-01

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a systematic approach for evaluating likelihood, consequences, and risk of adverse events. QRA based on event (ETA) and fault tree analyses (FTA) employs two basic assumptions. The first assumption is related to likelihood values of input events, and the second assumption is regarding interdependence among the events (for ETA) or basic events (for FTA). Traditionally, FTA and ETA both use crisp probabilities; however, to deal with uncertainties, the probability distributions of input event likelihoods are assumed. These probability distributions are often hard to come by and even if available, they are subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA assume that events (or basic events) are independent. In practice, these two assumptions are often unrealistic. This article focuses on handling uncertainty in a QRA framework of a process system. Fuzzy set theory and evidence theory are used to describe the uncertainties in the input event likelihoods. A method based on a dependency coefficient is used to express interdependencies of events (or basic events) in ETA and FTA. To demonstrate the approach, two case studies are discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Growth-mortality relationships in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) during severe droughts of the past century: shifting processes in space and time.

PubMed

Macalady, Alison K; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees' ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15-30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼ 70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases in the attack rate of both chronically stressed and more vigorous trees by bark beetles.

Phytomonitoring of chlorinated ethenes in trees: a four-year study of seasonal chemodynamics in planta.

PubMed

Limmer, Matt A; Holmes, Amanda J; Burken, Joel G

2014-09-16

Long-term monitoring (LTM) of groundwater remedial projects is costly and time-consuming, particularly when using phytoremediation, a long-term remedial approach. The use of trees as sensors of groundwater contamination (i.e., phytoscreening) has been widely described, although the use of trees to provide long-term monitoring of such plumes (phytomonitoring) has been more limited due to unexplained variability of contaminant concentrations in trees. To assess this variability, we developed an in planta sampling method to obtain high-frequency measurements of chlorinated ethenes in oak (Quercus rubra) and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) trees growing above a contaminated plume during a 4-year trial. The data set revealed that contaminant concentrations increased rapidly with transpiration in the spring and decreased in the fall, resulting in perchloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) sapwood concentrations an order of magnitude higher in late summer as compared to winter. Heartwood PCE and TCE concentrations were more buffered against seasonal effects. Rainfall events caused negligible dilution of contaminant concentrations in trees after precipitation events. Modeling evapotranspiration potential from meteorological data and comparing the modeled uptake and transport with the 4 years of high frequency data provides a foundation to advance the implementation of phytomonitoring and improved understanding of plant contaminant interactions.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

PubMed

McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina; Brando, Paulo; Brienen, Roel; Chambers, Jeff; Christoffersen, Brad; Davies, Stuart; Doughty, Chris; Duque, Alvaro; Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Fisher, Rosie; Fontes, Clarissa G; Galbraith, David; Goodsman, Devin; Grossiord, Charlotte; Hartmann, Henrik; Holm, Jennifer; Johnson, Daniel J; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Keller, Michael; Koven, Charlie; Kueppers, Lara; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Malhi, Yadvinder; McMahon, Sean M; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Phillips, Oliver L; Powell, Thomas; Sierra, Carlos A; Sperry, John; Warren, Jeff; Xu, Chonggang; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-16

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Environment and paleoecology of a 12 ka mid-North American Younger Dryas forest chronicled in tree rings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panyushkina, Irina P.; Leavitt, Steven W.; Thompson, Todd A.; Schneider, Allan F.; Lange, Todd

2008-01-01

Until now, availability of wood from the Younger Dryas abrupt cooling event (YDE) in N. America ca. 12.9 to 11.6 ka has been insufficient to develop high-resolution chronologies for refining our understanding of YDE conditions. Here we present a multi-proxy tree-ring chronology (ring widths, “events” evidenced by microanatomy and macro features, stable isotopes) from a buried black spruce forest in the Great Lakes area (Liverpool East site), spanning 116 yr at ca. 12,000 cal yr BP. During this largely cold and wet period, the proxies convey a coherent and precise forest history including frost events, tilting, drowning and burial in estuarine sands as the Laurentide Ice Sheet deteriorated. In the middle of the period, a short mild interval appears to have launched the final and largest episode of tree recruitment. Ultimately the tops of the trees were sheared off after death, perhaps by wind-driven ice floes, culminating an interval of rising water and sediment deposition around the base of the trees. Although relative influences of the continental ice sheet and local effects from ancestral Lake Michigan are indeterminate, the tree-ring proxies provide important insight into environment and ecology of a N. American YDE boreal forest stand.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents. PMID:28793348

Drought timing influences the legacy of tree growth recovery.

PubMed

Huang, Mengtian; Wang, Xuhui; Keenan, Trevor F; Piao, Shilong

2018-05-04

Whether and how the timing of extreme events affects the direction and magnitude of legacy effects on tree growth is poorly understood. In this study, we use a global database of Ring-Width Index (RWI) from 2,500 sites to examine the impact and legacy effects (the departure of observed RWI from expected RWI) of extreme drought events during 1948-2008, with a particular focus on the influence of drought timing. We assessed the recovery of stem radial growth in the years following severe drought events with separate groupings designed to characterize the timing of the drought. We found that legacies from extreme droughts during the dry season (DS droughts) lasted longer and had larger impacts in each of the 3 years post drought than those from extreme droughts during the wet season (WS droughts). At the global scale, the average integrated legacy from DS droughts (0.18) was about nine times that from WS droughts (0.02). Site-level comparisons also suggest stronger negative impacts or weaker positive impacts of DS droughts on tree growth than WS droughts. Our results, therefore, highlight that the timing of drought is a crucial factor determining drought impacts on tree recovery. Further increases in baseline aridity could therefore exacerbate the impact of punctuated droughts on terrestrial ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reduced transpiration response to precipitation pulses precedes mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland subject to prolonged drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Wadsworth, W Duncan; Pangle, Robert; Yepez, Enrico A; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

2013-10-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the intensity and duration of droughts, but the effects of changing precipitation patterns on vegetation mortality are difficult to predict. Our objective was to determine whether prolonged drought or above-average precipitation altered the capacity to respond to the individual precipitation pulses that drive productivity and survival. We analyzed 5 yr of data from a rainfall manipulation experiment in piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland using mixed effects models of transpiration response to event size, antecedent soil moisture, and post-event vapor pressure deficit. Replicated treatments included irrigation, drought, ambient control and infrastructure control. Mortality was highest under drought, and the reduced post-pulse transpiration in the droughted trees that died was attributable to treatment effects beyond drier antecedent conditions and reduced event size. In particular, trees that died were nearly unresponsive to antecedent shallow soil moisture, suggesting reduced shallow absorbing root area. Irrigated trees showed an enhanced response to precipitation pulses. Prolonged drought initiates a downward spiral whereby trees are increasingly unable to utilize pulsed soil moisture. Thus, the additive effects of future, more frequent droughts may increase drought-related mortality. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

PubMed

Wang, Hetang; Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

Predicting serious complications in patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism using decision tree modelling: the EPIPHANY Index.

PubMed

Carmona-Bayonas, A; Jiménez-Fonseca, P; Font, C; Fenoy, F; Otero, R; Beato, C; Plasencia, J M; Biosca, M; Sánchez, M; Benegas, M; Calvo-Temprano, D; Varona, D; Faez, L; de la Haba, I; Antonio, M; Madridano, O; Solis, M P; Ramchandani, A; Castañón, E; Marchena, P J; Martín, M; Ayala de la Peña, F; Vicente, V

2017-04-11

Our objective was to develop a prognostic stratification tool that enables patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE), whether incidental or symptomatic, to be classified according to the risk of serious complications within 15 days. The sample comprised cases from a national registry of pulmonary thromboembolism in patients with cancer (1075 patients from 14 Spanish centres). Diagnosis was incidental in 53.5% of the events in this registry. The Exhaustive CHAID analysis was applied with 10-fold cross-validation to predict development of serious complications following PE diagnosis. About 208 patients (19.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 17.1-21.8%) developed a serious complication after PE diagnosis. The 15-day mortality rate was 10.1%, (95% CI, 8.4-12.1%). The decision tree detected six explanatory covariates: Hestia-like clinical decision rule (any risk criterion present vs none), Eastern Cooperative Group performance scale (ECOG-PS; <2 vs ⩾2), O 2 saturation (<90 vs ⩾90%), presence of PE-specific symptoms, tumour response (progression, unknown, or not evaluated vs others), and primary tumour resection. Three risk classes were created (low, intermediate, and high risk). The risk of serious complications within 15 days increases according to the group: 1.6, 9.4, 30.6%; P<0.0001. Fifteen-day mortality rates also rise progressively in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients: 0.3, 6.1, and 17.1%; P<0.0001. The cross-validated risk estimate is 0.191 (s.e.=0.012). The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.779 (95% CI, 0.717-0.840). We have developed and internally validated a prognostic index to predict serious complications with the potential to impact decision-making in patients with cancer and PE.

Progress and challenges of protecting North American ash trees from the emerald ash borer using biological control

Treesearch

Jian Duan; Leah Bauer; Roy van Driesche; Juli Gould

2018-01-01

After emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, was discovered in the United States, a classical biological control program was initiated against this destructive pest of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.). This biocontrol program began in 2007 after federal regulatory agencies and the state of Michigan approved release of...

The chordate proteome history database.

PubMed

Levasseur, Anthony; Paganini, Julien; Dainat, Jacques; Thompson, Julie D; Poch, Olivier; Pontarotti, Pierre; Gouret, Philippe

2012-01-01

The chordate proteome history database (http://ioda.univ-provence.fr) comprises some 20,000 evolutionary analyses of proteins from chordate species. Our main objective was to characterize and study the evolutionary histories of the chordate proteome, and in particular to detect genomic events and automatic functional searches. Firstly, phylogenetic analyses based on high quality multiple sequence alignments and a robust phylogenetic pipeline were performed for the whole protein and for each individual domain. Novel approaches were developed to identify orthologs/paralogs, and predict gene duplication/gain/loss events and the occurrence of new protein architectures (domain gains, losses and shuffling). These important genetic events were localized on the phylogenetic trees and on the genomic sequence. Secondly, the phylogenetic trees were enhanced by the creation of phylogroups, whereby groups of orthologous sequences created using OrthoMCL were corrected based on the phylogenetic trees; gene family size and gene gain/loss in a given lineage could be deduced from the phylogroups. For each ortholog group obtained from the phylogenetic or the phylogroup analysis, functional information and expression data can be retrieved. Database searches can be performed easily using biological objects: protein identifier, keyword or domain, but can also be based on events, eg, domain exchange events can be retrieved. To our knowledge, this is the first database that links group clustering, phylogeny and automatic functional searches along with the detection of important events occurring during genome evolution, such as the appearance of a new domain architecture.

Biogeochemical hotspots following a simulated tree mortality event of southern pine beetle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, C. M.; Renninger, H. J.; Karunarathna, S.; Hornslein, N.; Riggins, J. J.; Clay, N. A.; Tang, J. D.; Chaney, B.; Drotar, N.

2017-12-01

Disturbances in forest ecosystems can alter functions like productivity, respiration, and nutrient cycling through the creation of biogeochemical hotspots. These events occur sporadically across the landscape, leading to uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere carbon models, which have yet to capture the full complexity of biotic and abiotic factors driving ecological processes in the terrestrial environment. Given the widespread impact of southern pine beetle on forest ecosystems throughout the southeastern United States, it is critical to management and planning activities to understand the role of these disturbances. As such, we hypothesize that bark beetle killed trees create biogeochemical hotspots in the soils surrounding their trunk as they undergo mortality due to (1) increased soil moisture from reductions in plant water uptake and increased stemflow production, (2) enhanced canopy-derived inputs of carbon and nitrogen, and (3) increased microbial activity and root mortality. In 2015, a field experiment to mimic a southern pine beetle attack was established by girdling loblolly pine trees. Subsequent measurements of throughfall and stemflow for water quantity and quality, transpiration, stem respiration, soil respiration, and soil chemistry were used to quantify the extent of spatial and temporal impacts of tree mortality on carbon budgets. Compared to control trees, girdled trees exhibited reduced water uptake within the first 6 months of the study and succumbed to mortality within 18 months. Over two years, the girdled trees generated 33% more stemflow than control trees (7836 vs. 5882 L m-2). Preliminary analysis of carbon and nitrogen concentrations and dissolved organic matter quality are still pending. In the surrounding soils, C:N ratios were greater under control trees (12.8) than under girdled trees (12.1), which was driven by an increase in carbon around control trees (+0.13 mg C mg-1 soil) and not a decrease around girdled trees (-0.01 mg C mg-1 soil), with no observed differences in N concentrations. Although data from the remaining of the 2017 growing season are still pending, we have thus far demonstrated how tree mortality from southern pine beetle changes single tree hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles.

The Source of Adult Age Differences in Event-Based Prospective Memory: A Multinomial Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2006-01-01

Event-based prospective memory involves remembering to perform an action in response to a particular future event. Normal younger and older adults performed event-based prospective memory tasks in 2 experiments. The authors applied a formal multinomial processing tree model of prospective memory (Smith & Bayen, 2004) to disentangle age differences…

Improving the water use efficiency of olive trees growing in water harvesting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, Pedro; Leake, Salomon; Carmi, Gennady; Agam, Nurit

2017-04-01

Water is a primary limiting factor for agricultural development in many arid and semi-arid regions in which a runoff generation is a rather frequent event. If conveyed to dyke surrounded plots and ponded, runoff water can thereafter be used for tree production. One of the most promising runoff collection configurations is that of micro-catchments in which water is collected close to the area in which runoff was generated and stored in adjacent shallow pits. The objective of this work was to assess the effect of the geometry of runoff water collection area (shallow pit or trench) on direct evaporative water losses and on the water use efficiency of olive trees grown in them. The study was conducted during the summer of 2013 and 2014. In this study regular micro-catchments with basins of 9 m2 (3 x 3 m) by 0.1 m deep were compared with trenches of one meter deep and one meter wide. Each configuration was replicated three times. One tree was planted in each shallow basin and the distance between trees in the 12 m long trench was four meters. Access tubes for neutron probes were installed in the micro-catchments and trenches (four and seven, respectively) to depths of 2.5 m. Soil water content in the soil profile was monitored periodically throughout drying periods in between simulated runoff events. Transpiration of the trees was estimated from half-hourly sap flow measurements using a Granier system. Total transpiration fluxes were computed for time intervals corresponding to consecutive soil water measurements. During the first year, a large runoff event was simulated by applying once four cubic meters to each plot; and in the second year the same volume of water was split into four applications, simulating a series of small runoff events. In both geometries, trees received the same amount of water per tree. Evaporation from trenches and micro-catchments was estimated as the difference between evapotranspiration obtained computing the differences in total soil water content between two consecutive measurements and transpiration for this interval estimated from sap flow measurements. In both years the evaporation from micro-catchments was significantly larger than that of trenches. The fractional loss due to evaporation from the total applied water for the second year for example, was 53% and 22% for micro-catchments and trenches, respectively. This indicates that a trench geometry reduces the amount of water lost to direct evaporation from the soil, and is thus more efficient in utilizing harvested runoff water.

Deduction of probable events of lateral gene transfer through comparison of phylogenetic trees by recursive consolidation and rearrangement

PubMed Central

MacLeod, Dave; Charlebois, Robert L; Doolittle, Ford; Bapteste, Eric

2005-01-01

Background When organismal phylogenies based on sequences of single marker genes are poorly resolved, a logical approach is to add more markers, on the assumption that weak but congruent phylogenetic signal will be reinforced in such multigene trees. Such approaches are valid only when the several markers indeed have identical phylogenies, an issue which many multigene methods (such as the use of concatenated gene sequences or the assembly of supertrees) do not directly address. Indeed, even when the true history is a mixture of vertical descent for some genes and lateral gene transfer (LGT) for others, such methods produce unique topologies. Results We have developed software that aims to extract evidence for vertical and lateral inheritance from a set of gene trees compared against an arbitrary reference tree. This evidence is then displayed as a synthesis showing support over the tree for vertical inheritance, overlaid with explicit lateral gene transfer (LGT) events inferred to have occurred over the history of the tree. Like splits-tree methods, one can thus identify nodes at which conflict occurs. Additionally one can make reasonable inferences about vertical and lateral signal, assigning putative donors and recipients. Conclusion A tool such as ours can serve to explore the reticulated dimensionality of molecular evolution, by dissecting vertical and lateral inheritance at high resolution. By this, we mean that individual nodes can be examined not only for congruence, but also for coherence in light of LGT. We assert that our tools will facilitate the comparison of phylogenetic trees, and the interpretation of conflicting data. PMID:15819979

Temporal Dynamics in the Concentration, Flux, and Optical Properties of Tree-Derived Dissolved Organic Matter in an Epiphyte-Laden Oak-Cedar Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Stan, John T.; Wagner, Sasha; Guillemette, François; Whitetree, Ansley; Lewis, Julius; Silva, Leticia; Stubbins, Aron

2017-11-01

Studies on the fate and transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow pathway typically begin in streams or soils, neglecting the initial enrichment of rainfall with DOM during contact with plant canopies. However, rain water can gather significant amounts of tree-derived DOM (tree-DOM) when it drains from the canopy, as throughfall, and down the stem, as stemflow. We examined the temporal variability of event-scale tree-DOM concentrations, yield, and optical (light absorbance and fluorescence) characteristics from an epiphyte-laden Quercus virginiana-Juniperus virginiana forest on Skidaway Island, Savannah, Georgia (USA). All tree-DOM fluxes were highly enriched in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) compared to rainfall, and epiphytes further increased concentrations. Stemflow DOC concentrations were greater than throughfall across study species, yet larger throughfall water yields produced greater DOC yields versus stemflow. Tree-DOM optical characteristics indicate it is aromatic-rich with fluorescent DOM dominated by humic-like fluorescence, containing 10-20% protein-like (tryptophan-like) fluorescence. Storm size was the only storm condition that strongly correlated with tree-DOM concentration and flux; however, throughfall and stemflow optical characteristics varied little across a wide range of storm conditions (from low magnitude events to intense tropical storms). Annual tree-DOM yields from the study forest (0.8-46 g C m-2 yr-1) were similar to other yields from discrete down-gradient fluxes (litter leachates, soil leachates, and stream discharge) along the rainfall-to-discharge flow path.

Growth-Mortality Relationships in Piñon Pine (Pinus edulis) during Severe Droughts of the Past Century: Shifting Processes in Space and Time

PubMed Central

Macalady, Alison K.; Bugmann, Harald

2014-01-01

The processes leading to drought-associated tree mortality are poorly understood, particularly long-term predisposing factors, memory effects, and variability in mortality processes and thresholds in space and time. We use tree rings from four sites to investigate Pinus edulis mortality during two drought periods in the southwestern USA. We draw on recent sampling and archived collections to (1) analyze P. edulis growth patterns and mortality during the 1950s and 2000s droughts; (2) determine the influence of climate and competition on growth in trees that died and survived; and (3) derive regression models of growth-mortality risk and evaluate their performance across space and time. Recent growth was 53% higher in surviving vs. dying trees, with some sites exhibiting decades-long growth divergences associated with previous drought. Differential growth response to climate partly explained growth differences between live and dead trees, with responses wet/cool conditions most influencing eventual tree status. Competition constrained tree growth, and reduced trees’ ability to respond to favorable climate. The best predictors in growth-mortality models included long-term (15–30 year) average growth rate combined with a metric of growth variability and the number of abrupt growth increases over 15 and 10 years, respectively. The most parsimonious models had high discriminatory power (ROC>0.84) and correctly classified ∼70% of trees, suggesting that aspects of tree growth, especially over decades, can be powerful predictors of widespread drought-associated die-off. However, model discrimination varied across sites and drought events. Weaker growth-mortality relationships and higher growth at lower survival probabilities for some sites during the 2000s event suggest a shift in mortality processes from longer-term growth-related constraints to shorter-term processes, such as rapid metabolic decline even in vigorous trees due to acute drought stress, and/or increases in the attack rate of both chronically stressed and more vigorous trees by bark beetles. PMID:24786646

Examining the Relationship Between Edaphic Variables and the Rooting System of Abies concolor in the southern Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, A.; Jackson, R. B.; Tumber-Davila, S. J.

2017-12-01

An increase in the frequency and severity of droughts has been associated with the changing climate. These events have the potential to alter the composition and biogeography of forests, as well as increase tree mortality related to climate-induced stress. Already, an increase in tree mortality has been observed throughout the US. The recent drought in California led to millions of tree mortalities in the southern Sierra Nevada alone. In order to assess the potential impacts of these events on forest systems, it is imperative to understand what factors contribute to tree mortality. As plants become water-stressed, they may invest carbon more heavily belowground to reach a bigger pool of water, but their ability to adapt may be limited by the characteristics of the soil. In the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory, a high tree mortality zone, we have selected both dead and living trees to examine the factors that contribute to root zone variability and belowground biomass investment by individual plants. A series of 15 cores surrounding the tree were taken to collect root and soil samples. These were then used to compare belowground rooting distributions with soil characteristics (texture, water holding capacity, pH, electric conductivity). Abies concolor is heavily affected by drought-induced mortality, therefore the rooting systems of dead Abies concolor trees were examined to determine the relationship between their rooting systems and environmental conditions. Examining the relationship between soil characteristics and rooting systems of trees may shed light on the plasticity of rooting systems and how trees adapt based on the characteristics of its environment. A better understanding of the factors that contribute to tree mortality can improve our ability to predict how forest systems may be impacted by climate-induced stress. Key words: Root systems, soil characteristics, drought, adaptation, terrestrial carbon, forest ecology

The palm wine trade: occupational and health hazards.

PubMed

Mbuagbaw, L; Noorduyn, S G

2012-10-01

The palm wine trade is an important economic activity for many tropical rural areas worldwide. In West Africa, palm wine holds high sociocultural and traditional values. Wine tappers often climb very tall trees with rudimentary equipment to harvest palm sap and risk severe injuries in the event of a fall. Furthermore, the wine quickly ferments beyond the desired taste and alcohol content, reducing the market power of these tappers. Therefore, to maximize benefits or to enhance shelf life, a variety of components are added to the palm tree sap, introducing the possibility of deadly contaminants. This paper highlights the public health implications of uncontrolled palm wine production and the relative neglect of the wine tapper. We draw from the limited published literature and use Cameroon as a case study. The palm wine trade can be more productive and safe if tappers work in cooperatives to improve their market power. Public health authorities need to monitor the quality of this cheap and common source of alcohol and enact regulations to protect wine tappers from the current level of occupational hazards. There are varying levels of progress to control quality and ensure safety in different parts of the world. Legislation and collaboration with traditional structures may offer a framework for change.

Quantifying probabilities of eruptions at Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brancato, Alfonso

2010-05-01

One of the major goals of modern volcanology is to set up sound risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard must be managed with reliable estimates of quantitative long- and short-term eruption forecasting, but the large number of observables involved in a volcanic process suggests that a probabilistic approach could be a suitable tool in forecasting. The aim of this work is to quantify probabilistic estimate of the vent location for a suitable lava flow hazard assessment at Mt. Etna volcano, through the application of the code named BET (Marzocchi et al., 2004, 2008). The BET_EF model is based on the event tree philosophy assessed by Newhall and Hoblitt (2002), further developing the concept of vent location, epistemic uncertainties, and a fuzzy approach for monitoring measurements. A Bayesian event tree is a specialized branching graphical representation of events in which individual branches are alternative steps from a general prior event, and evolving into increasingly specific subsequent states. Then, the event tree attempts to graphically display all relevant possible outcomes of volcanic unrest in progressively higher levels of detail. The procedure is set to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, to accommodate it by using past data, and to modify it further by using current monitoring data. For the long-term forecasting, an a priori model, dealing with the present tectonic and volcanic structure of the Mt. Etna, is considered. The model is mainly based on past vent locations and fracture location datasets (XX century of eruptive history of the volcano). Considering the variation of the information through time, and their relationship with the structural setting of the volcano, datasets we are also able to define an a posteriori probability map for next vent opening. For short-term forecasting vent opening hazard assessment, the monitoring has a leading role, primarily based on seismological and volcanological data, integrated with strain, geochemical, gravimetric and magnetic parameters. In the code, is necessary to fix an appropriate forecasting time window. On open-conduit volcanoes as Mt. Etna, a forecast time window of a month (as fixed in other applications worldwide) seems unduly long, because variations of the state of the volcano (significant variation of a specific monitoring parameter could occur in time scale shorter than the forecasting time window) are expected with shorter time scale (hour, day or week). This leads to set a week as forecasting time window, coherently with the number of weeks in which an unrest has been experienced. The short-term vent opening hazard assessment will be estimated during an unrest phase; the testing case (2001 July eruption) will include all the monitoring parameters collected at Mt. Etna during the six months preceding the eruption. The monitoring role has been assessed eliciting more than 50 parameters, including seismic activity, ground deformation, geochemistry, gravity, magnetism, and distributed inside the first three nodes of the procedure. Parameter values describe the Mt. Etna volcano activity, being more detailed through the code, particularly in time units. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are incoming. References Newhall C.G. and Hoblitt R.P.; 2002: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises, Bull. Volcanol., 64, 3-20, doi: 10.1007/s0044500100173. Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C. and Boschi E.; 2004: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB00315U. Marzocchi W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J.; 2008: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623 - 632, doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y.

Reconstruction of glacial lake outburst floods in northern Tien Shan: Implications for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaginaev, V.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Erokhin, S.; Matov, E.; Petrakov, D.; Stoffel, M.

2016-09-01

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows are among the most significant natural threats in the Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and have even caused the loss of life and damage to infrastructure in its capital Bishkek. An improved understanding of the occurrence of this process is essential so as to be able to design reliable disaster risk reduction strategies, even more so in view of ongoing climate change and scenarios of future evolutions. Here, we apply a dendrogeomorphic approach to reconstruct past debris-flow activity on the Aksay cone (Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz range), where outbursting glacier lakes and intense rainfalls have triggered huge debris flows over the past decades. A total of 96 Picea abies (L.) Karst. trees growing on the cone and along the main channel have been selected based on the evidence of past debris-flow damage in their trunks; these trees were then sampled using increment borers. The dating of past events was based on the assessment of growth disturbances (GD) in the tree-ring records and included the detection of injuries, tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts, reaction wood, and abrupt growth changes. In total, 320 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples. In combination with aerial imagery and geomorphic recognition in the field, reactions in trees and their position on the cone have allowed reconstruction of the main spatial patterns of past events on the Aksay cone. Our findings suggest that at least 27 debris flows have occurred on the site between 1877 and 2015 and point to the occurrence of at least 17 events that were not documented prior to this study. We also observe high process activity during the 1950s and 1960s, with major events on the cone in 1950, 1966, and 1968, coinciding with phases of slight glacier advance. The spatial analyses of events also point to two different spatial patterns, suggesting that quite dissimilar magnitudes probably occurred during glacier lake outburst floods and rainfall-induced debris-flow events. The results presented here represent the longest, annually resolved GLOF series in the region, which in turn has key implications on risk assessment, not just in the Ala-Archa valley, but also in the entire Kyrgyz range (northern Tien Shan).

Mortality in Subalpine Forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA: Differential Response of Pines (Pinus albicaulis and P. flexilis) to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, C. I.; Westfall, R. D.; Delany, D. L.

2010-12-01

Widespread forest mortality in high-elevation forests has been increasing across western North American mountains in recent years, with climate, insects, and disease the primary causes. Subalpine forests in the eastern Sierra Nevada, by contrast, have experienced far less mortality than other ranges, and mortality events have been patchy and episodic. This situation, and lack of significant effect of non-native white-pine blister rust, enable investigation of fine-scale response of two subalpine Sierran species, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis, PiAl) and limber pine (P. flexilis, PiFl), to climate variability. We report similarities and differences between the two major mortality events in these pines in the last 150 years: 1988-1992 for PiFl and 2006-ongoing for PiAl. In both species, the events occurred within monotypic, closed-canopy, relatively young stands (< 200 yrs PiAl, < 300 yrs in PiFl); were localized to central-eastern Sierra Nevada; and occurred at 2740-2840 m along the eastern edge of the escarpment on north/northeast aspects with slopes > 40%. Mortality patches averaged 40-80 ha in both species, with mean stand mortality of trees > 10 cm diameter 91% in PiAl and 60% in PiFl. The ultimate cause of tree death was mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in both species, with increasing 20th/21st C minimum temperatures combined with drought the pre-conditioning factors. Overall growth in the past 150 years suggests that PiFl is more drought hardy than PiAl but responds sensitively to the combined effects of drought and increasing warmth. After the 1988-1992 drought, surviving PiFl recovered growth. PiAl trees grew very poorly during that drought, and continued poor growth in the years until 2006 when the mortality event occurred in PiAl. A significant species effect is the apparent difference in levels of within-stand genetic diversity for climate factors. Differential growth between 19th C (cool, wet) and 20th/21st C (warming, drying) of PiFl trees that died versus survivors indicates that considerable within-stand genetic diversity for climate existed in PiFl. For PiFl, the late 20th C mortality event acted as strong natural selection to improve within-stand fitness for warmer and drier conditions. PiFl trees that survived the 1988-1992 drought remained healthy through subsequent droughts, including the drought that is currently causing PiAl mortality. By contrast, the PiAl stands do not appear to have contained adaptive genetic diversity for drought and warmth, and PiAl trees growth behavior over the past 150 years was similar in pattern to the PiFl trees that died. As a result, the mortality event in PiAl is creating forest openings, with unknown future stand conditions, rather than rapid within-species adaptation that occurred in PiFl.

Bounding the Resource Availability of Partially Ordered Events with Constant Resource Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, Jeremy

2004-01-01

We compare existing techniques to bound the resource availability of partially ordered events. We first show that, contrary to intuition, two existing techniques, one due to Laborie and one due to Muscettola, are not strictly comparable in terms of the size of the search trees generated under chronological search with a fixed heuristic. We describe a generalization of these techniques called the Flow Balance Constraint to tightly bound the amount of available resource for a set of partially ordered events with piecewise constant resource impact We prove that the new technique generates smaller proof trees under chronological search with a fixed heuristic, at little increase in computational expense. We then show how to construct tighter resource bounds but at increased computational cost.

Genetic diversity-seeing the forest through the trees

Treesearch

M. Thompson Conkle

1992-01-01

Forest trees, populations, races, species, and taxonomic groups above the species level display rich variation in biochemical markers. The variation stems from inherited modifications that trace back in time, through converging ancestries, towards common progenitors. Past movements of continents, mountain building events, and climate changes isolated forest populations...

30 CFR 250.618 - Tubing and wellhead equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... following requirements during well-workover operations with the tree removed: (a) No tubing string shall be... pressure integrity and is otherwise suitable for its intended use. (b) In the event of prolonged operations... Manager. (c) When reinstalling the tree, you must: (1) Equip wells to monitor for casing pressure...

Tree ring-based chronology of hydro-geomorphic processes as a fundament for identification of hydro-meteorological triggers in the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Central Europe).

PubMed

Tichavský, Radek; Šilhán, Karel; Tolasz, Radim

2017-02-01

Hydro-geomorphic processes have significantly influenced the recent development of valley floors, river banks and depositional forms in mountain environments, have caused considerable damage to manmade developments and have disrupted forest management. Trees growing along streams are affected by the transported debris mass and provide valuable records of debris flow/flood histories in their tree-ring series. Dendrogeomorphic approaches are currently the most accurate methods for creating a chronology of the debris flow/flood events in forested catchments without any field-monitoring or a stream-gauging station. Comprehensive studies focusing on the detailed chronology of hydro-geomorphic events and analysis of meteorological triggers and weather circulation patterns are still lacking for the studied area. We provide a spatio-temporal reconstruction of hydro-geomorphic events in four catchments of the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains, Czech Republic, with an analysis of their triggering factors using meteorological data from four nearby rain gauges. Increment cores from 794 coniferous trees (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) allowed the identification of 40 hydro-geomorphic events during the period of 1889-2013. Most of the events can be explained by extreme daily rainfalls (≥50mm) occurring in at least one rain gauge. However, in several cases, there was no record of extreme precipitation at rain gauges during the debris flow/flood event year, suggesting extremely localised rainstorms at the mountain summits. We concluded that the localisation, intensity and duration of rainstorms; antecedent moisture conditions; and amount of available sediments all influenced the initiation, spatial distribution and characteristics of hydro-geomorphic events. The most frequent synoptic situations responsible for the extreme rainfalls (1946-2015) were related to the meridional atmospheric circulation pattern. Our results enhance current knowledge of the occurrences and triggers of debris flows/floods in the Central European mountains in transition between temperate oceanic and continental climatic conditions and may prompt further research of these phenomena in the Eastern Sudetes in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adventitious root formation in tree species: involvement of transcription factors.

PubMed

Legué, Valérie; Rigal, Adeline; Bhalerao, Rishikesh P

2014-06-01

Adventitious rooting is an essential step in the vegetative propagation of economically important horticultural and woody species. Populus has emerged as an experimental model for studying processes that are important in tree growth and development. It is highly useful for molecular genetic analysis of adventitious roots in trees. In this short review, we will highlight the recent progress made in the identification of transcription factors involved in the control of adventitious rooting in woody species. Their regulation will be discussed. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Revegetation after strip cutting and block clearcutting in northern hardwoods: a 10-year history

Treesearch

C. Wayne Martin; Hornbeck James W.; Hornbeck James W.

1989-01-01

Changes in the density and biomass of trees, shrubs, and herbs were measured periodically over 10 years following a progressive strip cutting and block clearcutting of northern hardwoods. At 10 years after clearcutting, yellow birch was the most numerous commercial or uncommercial tree on the block clearcut; sugar maple on the strip cut. Pin cherry dominated the...

The Northern hardwood forest ecosystem: ten years of recovery from clearcutting

Treesearch

J.W. Hornbeck; C.W. Martin; R.S. Pierce; F.H. Bormann; G.E. Likens; J.S. Eaton; J.S. Eaton

1987-01-01

Two even-age management systems, progressive strip cutting and block clearcutting, have been studied since 1970 on small watersheds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. In the strip cutting, all merchantable trees were harvested in a series of three strips over 4 years (1970-74). In the block clearcutting, all trees were harvested in a single...

Protecting trees against virus diseases in the 21st century: genetic engineering of Plum pox virus resistance - from concept to product

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sharka disease, caused by Plum pox virus (PPV), was first recorded in Bulgaria during the early twentieth century. Since that first report, the disease has progressively spread throughout Europe where it has infected over 100 million stone fruit trees. From Europe, sharka disease spread to Asia, A...

A Normative Study of the Person Picking an Apple from a Tree (PPAT) Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bucciarelli, Amy

2011-01-01

The Person Picking an Apple from a Tree (PPAT) is an art therapy assessment task that is scored using the Formal Elements Art Therapy Scale (FEATS) to identify a client's mental health symptoms and progress in art therapy. Normative data are needed to empirically validate assumptions about the PPAT. This report summarizes a normative study of the…

Development of a sampling system for Armillaria rhizomorphs in mixed oak stands: a progress report

Treesearch

Mark J. Twery; Philip M. Wargo

1991-01-01

The assessment of the problems caused by gypsy moth is dependent on a number of characteristics of a forest stand. One of the main impacts of defoliation is the mortality of standing trees. Mortality is seldom caused directly by defoliation, but is usually associated with a secondary agent which attacks the tree in its weakened condition.

Prospects for improving the salt tolerance of forest trees: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, J.A.; Chambers, J.L.; Stine, M.

1994-01-01

Three major themes related to the improvement of salt tolerance in forest tree species are examined. First, evidence demonstrating that substantial intraspecific variation in salt tolerance exists in many species is presented. This evidence is important because it suggests that efforts to improve salt tolerance through conventional plant breeding techniques are justified. Second, the physiological and genetic mechanisms controlling salt tolerance are discussed briefly. Although salt tolerance involves the integration of numerous physiological processes, there is considerable evidence that differences in the ability to exclude Na+ and Cl- from leaves are the most important factors underlying intraspecific differences in tolerance. It is also becoming apparent that, although salt tolerance is a multigenic trait, major genes play an important role. Third, progress to date in improving salt tolerance of forest tree species is assessed. Compared with agricultural crops, relatively little progress has been made with either conventional or biotechnological methods, but field trials designed to test clones identified as salt tolerant in screening trials are underway now in several countries. We conclude that there is justification for cautious optimism about the prospects for improving salt tolerance in forest tree species.

The ethnobotany of Christ's Thorn Jujube (Ziziphus spina-christi) in Israel.

PubMed

Dafni, Amots; Levy, Shay; Lev, Efraim

2005-09-28

This article surveys the ethnobotany of Ziziphus spina-christi (L.) Desf. in the Middle East from various aspects: historical, religious, philological, literary, linguistic, as well as pharmacological, among Muslims, Jews, and Christians. It is suggested that this is the only tree species considered "holy" by Muslims (all the individuals of the species are sanctified by religion) in addition to its status as "sacred tree " (particular trees which are venerated due to historical or magical events related to them, regardless of their botanical identity) in the Middle East. It has also a special status as "blessed tree" among the Druze.

Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of lahar activity and triggers: Shiveluch volcano, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaorni, E.; Stoffel, M.; Tutubalina, O.; Chernomorets, S.; Seynova, I.; Sorg, A.

2017-01-01

Lahars are highly concentrated, water-saturated volcanic hyperconcentrated flows or debris flows containing pyroclastic material and are a characteristic mass movement process on volcanic slopes. On Kamchatka Peninsula (Russian Federation), lahars are widespread and may affect remote settlements. Historical records of past lahar occurrences are generally sparse and mostly limited to events which damaged infrastructure on the slopes or at the foot of volcanoes. In this study, we present a tree-ring-based reconstruction of spatiotemporal patterns of past lahar activity at Shiveluch volcano. Using increment cores and cross sections from 126 Larix cajanderi trees, we document 34 events covering the period AD 1729-2012. Analyses of the seasonality of damage in trees reveal that 95% of all lahars occurred between October and May and thus point to the predominant role of the sudden melt of the snow cover by volcanic material. These observations suggest that most lahars were likely syn-eruptive and that lahar activity is largely restricted to periods of volcanic activity. By contrast, rainfall events do not seem to play a significant role in lahar triggering.

Rapid increase in cosmogenic 14C in AD 775 measured in New Zealand kauri trees indicates short-lived increase in 14C production spanning both hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güttler, D.; Adolphi, F.; Beer, J.; Bleicher, N.; Boswijk, G.; Christl, M.; Hogg, A.; Palmer, J.; Vockenhuber, C.; Wacker, L.; Wunder, J.

2015-02-01

In 2012, Miyake et al. reported a sudden and strong increase of the atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) content in Japanese cedar trees of 1.2% between AD 774 and 775. While their findings were quickly confirmed by a German oak chronology for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the question remained if the effect was seen in both hemispheres. Here we present the first annually resolved Southern Hemisphere (SH) 14C record spanning the interval AD 760-787, using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) chronology wood. An almost identical distinct increase compared to Northern Hemisphere data was observed, suggesting a cosmic event with globally uniform impact as a potential cause for the increase. Deploying a carbon cycle box model a worldwide averaged net 14C production of 2.2 ×108 14C atoms cm-2 was estimated, which is 3.7 times higher than the average annual 14C production. The immediate appearance of the event in tree rings on both hemispheres suggests a short duration event of significantly less than 1 yr.

Dendrogeomorphological analysis of a slope near Lago, Calabria (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fantucci, Rosanna; Sorriso-Valvo, Marino

1999-10-01

The dendrogeomorphological analysis has been used to investigate the periods of disturbance on a slope affected by deep-seated gravitational movements. The method proved to be of great help in determining the temporal sequence of diffused slope movement in the study area, and, though to a lesser extent, to find out the possible causes of triggering the mass-movement. In general, leaning trees indicate that the movement is active. The visual growth analysis indicates that anomalies consisted of sudden decreases of the growth (suppression of tree-rings) induced by stress consequent on ground disturbance, followed in some cases by sudden increases of tree-ring width induced by the higher moisture content in the landslide body. By anomaly analysis, an increase of the anomaly index (It) occurred between 1840 and 1860; subsequently, a period of strongly oscillating values of It occurred that levelled off around 1950. It also appears that mass-movements began to affect this zone soon after 1850s, thus, we can tentatively assume that they have been the cause of the growth anomalies, with a maximum influence in the period between 1860 and 1895. As regards the causes for mass-movement, we inquired about timing of extreme meteorological events and earthquakes. The meteorological data obtained from raingauging stations are not so well related to mass-movement reactivation as the seismic data are. However, only a minority of extreme meteorological events may produce such a disturbance that can be recorded in the tree-ring record. Indeed, only 30% of anomalies can be explained in terms of extreme events. On the other hand, the continuous creeping of the sackung might irregularly trigger the movement of shallower landslides in non extreme-events years. We obtained, instead, a higher degree of coincidence between disturbing causes and anomalous tree growth using archive reports on extreme rainfall periods.

Application of Decision Tree to Obtain Optimal Operation Rules for Reservoir Flood Control Considering Sediment Desilting-Case Study of Tseng Wen Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ShiouWei, L.

2014-12-01

Reservoirs are the most important water resources facilities in Taiwan.However,due to the steep slope and fragile geological conditions in the mountain area,storm events usually cause serious debris flow and flood,and the flood then will flush large amount of sediment into reservoirs.The sedimentation caused by flood has great impact on the reservoirs life.Hence,how to operate a reservoir during flood events to increase the efficiency of sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety and impact the water supply afterward is a crucial issue in Taiwan. 　Therefore,this study developed a novel optimization planning model for reservoir flood operation considering flood control and sediment desilting,and proposed easy to use operating rules represented by decision trees.The decision trees rules have considered flood mitigation,water supply and sediment desilting.The optimal planning model computes the optimal reservoir release for each flood event that minimum water supply impact and maximum sediment desilting without risk the reservoir safety.Beside the optimal flood operation planning model,this study also proposed decision tree based flood operating rules that were trained by the multiple optimal reservoir releases to synthesis flood scenarios.The synthesis flood scenarios consists of various synthesis storm events,reservoir's initial storage and target storages at the end of flood operating. 　Comparing the results operated by the decision tree operation rules(DTOR) with that by historical operation for Krosa Typhoon in 2007,the DTOR removed sediment 15.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only8.38×106m3 less than that of historical operation.For Jangmi Typhoon in 2008,the DTOR removed sediment 24.4% more than that of historical operation with reservoir storage only 7.58×106m3 less than that of historical operation.The results show that the proposed DTOR model can increase the sediment desilting efficiency and extend the reservoir life.

Progressive transmission of road network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Bo; Ai, Tinghua; Tang, Xinming; Li, Zhen

2009-10-01

The progressive transmission of vector map data requires efficient multi-scale data model to process the data into hierarchical structure. This paper presents such a data structure of road network without redundancy of geometry for progressive transmission. For a given scale, the road network display has to settle two questions. One is which road objects to be represented and the other is what geometric details to be visualized for the selected roads. This paper combines the Töpfer law and the BLG-tree structure into a multi-scale representation matrix to answer simultaneously the above two questions. In the matrix, rows from top to bottom represent the roads in the sequence of descending classification of traffic and length, which can support the Töpfer law to retrieve the more important roads. In a row, columns record one road by a linear BLG-tree to provide good line graphics.

Simulation-Based Model Checking for Nondeterministic Systems and Rare Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-24

year, we have investigated AO* search and Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithms to complement and enhance CMU’s SMCMDP. 1 Final Report, March 14... tree , so we can use it to find the probability of reachability for a property in PRISM’s Probabilistic LTL. By finding the maximum probability of...savings, particularly when handling very large models. 2.3 Monte Carlo Tree Search The Monte Carlo sampling process in SMCMDP can take a long time to

Sequence evidence for the symbiotic origins of chloroplasts and mitochondria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, D. G.; Hunt, L. T.; Dayhoff, M. O.

1983-01-01

The origin of mitochondria and chloroplasts is investigated on the basis of prokaryotic and early-eukaryotic evolutionary trees derived from protein and nucleic-acid sequences by the method of Dayhoff (1979). Trees for bacterial ferrodoxins, 5S ribosomal RNA, c-type cytochromes, the lipid-binding subunit of ATPase, and dihydrofolate reductase are presented and discussed. Good agreement among the trees is found, and it is argued that the mitochondria and chloroplasts evolved by multiple symbiotic events.

On the typology and the worship status of sacred trees with a special reference to the Middle East.

PubMed

Dafni, Amots

2006-05-15

This article contains the reasons for the establishment of sacred trees in Israel based on a field study. It includes 97 interviews with Muslim and Druze informants. While Muslims (Arabs and Bedouins) consider sacred trees especially as an abode of righteous figures' (Wellis') souls or as having a connection to their graves, the Druze relate sacred trees especially to the events or deeds in the lives of prophets and religious leaders. A literary review shows the existence of 24 known reasons for the establishment of sacred trees worldwide, 11 of which are known in Israel one of these is reported here for the first time. We found different trends in monotheistic and polytheistic religions concerning their current worship of sacred trees.

On the typology and the worship status of sacred trees with a special reference to the Middle East

PubMed Central

Dafni, Amots

2006-01-01

This article contains the reasons for the establishment of sacred trees in Israel based on a field study. It includes 97 interviews with Muslim and Druze informants. While Muslims (Arabs and Bedouins) consider sacred trees especially as an abode of righteous figures' (Wellis') souls or as having a connection to their graves, the Druze relate sacred trees especially to the events or deeds in the lives of prophets and religious leaders. A literary review shows the existence of 24 known reasons for the establishment of sacred trees worldwide, 11 of which are known in Israel one of these is reported here for the first time. We found different trends in monotheistic and polytheistic religions concerning their current worship of sacred trees. PMID:16700917

A Trichosporonales genome tree based on 27 haploid and three evolutionarily conserved 'natural' hybrid genomes.

PubMed

Takashima, Masako; Sriswasdi, Sira; Manabe, Ri-Ichiroh; Ohkuma, Moriya; Sugita, Takashi; Iwasaki, Wataru

2018-01-01

To construct a backbone tree consisting of basidiomycetous yeasts, draft genome sequences from 25 species of Trichosporonales (Tremellomycetes, Basidiomycota) were generated. In addition to the hybrid genomes of Trichosporon coremiiforme and Trichosporon ovoides that we described previously, we identified an interspecies hybrid genome in Cutaneotrichosporon mucoides (formerly Trichosporon mucoides). This hybrid genome had a gene retention rate of ~55%, and its closest haploid relative was Cutaneotrichosporon dermatis. After constructing the C. mucoides subgenomes, we generated a phylogenetic tree using genome data from the 27 haploid species and the subgenome data from the three hybrid genome species. It was a high-quality tree with 100% bootstrap support for all of the branches. The genome-based tree provided superior resolution compared with previous multi-gene analyses. Although our backbone tree does not include all Trichosporonales genera (e.g. Cryptotrichosporon), it will be valuable for future analyses of genome data. Interest in interspecies hybrid fungal genomes has recently increased because they may provide a basis for new technologies. The three Trichosporonales hybrid genomes described in this study are different from well-characterized hybrid genomes (e.g. those of Saccharomyces pastorianus and Saccharomyces bayanus) because these hybridization events probably occurred in the distant evolutionary past. Hence, they will be useful for studying genome stability following hybridization and speciation events. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Tree-ring based reconstruction of rockfalls at Cofre de Perote volcano, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco-Ramos, Osvaldo; Stoffel, Markus; Vázquez-Selem, Lorenzo

2017-08-01

In this study, dendrogeomorphic techniques are employed to analyse the temporal frequency and spatial distribution of rockfalls on a talus slope of La Teta valley, located on the NW slopes of Cofre de Perote volcano at 4000 m above sea level. Based on the interpretation of disturbance signals in growth rings of old-growth Pinus hartwegii Lindl. trees, we identify 100 growth disturbances related with rockfall events dated between 1780 and 2011, with slightly more than half of these events being dated to the last 50 years. The sectors most susceptible to rockfall correspond with the young rock lobes located at the foot of scarps. Roughly three in ten events has been triggered by regional, M > 6 earthquakes, whereas half of the events activity coincides with periods characterized by severe, prolonged summer rainfalls such as the ones occurred in 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2011.

[A review of the genomic and gene cloning studies in trees].

PubMed

Yin, Tong-Ming

2010-07-01

Supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) of U.S., the first tree genome, black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa), has been completely sequenced and publicly release. This is the milestone that indicates the beginning of post-genome era for forest trees. Identification and cloning genes underlying important traits are one of the main tasks for the post-genome-era tree genomic studies. Recently, great achievements have been made in cloning genes coordinating important domestication traits in some crops, such as rice, tomato, maize and so on. Molecular breeding has been applied in the practical breeding programs for many crops. By contrast, molecular studies in trees are lagging behind. Trees possess some characteristics that make them as difficult organisms for studying on locating and cloning of genes. With the advances in techniques, given also the fast growth of tree genomic resources, great achievements are desirable in cloning unknown genes from trees, which will facilitate tree improvement programs by means of molecular breeding. In this paper, the author reviewed the progress in tree genomic and gene cloning studies, and prospected the future achievements in order to provide a useful reference for researchers working in this area.

Five centuries of Central European temperature extremes reconstructed from tree-ring density and documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Frank, David; Büntgen, Ulf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Pfister, Christian; Esper, Jan

2010-06-01

Future climate change will likely influence the frequency and intensity of weather extremes. As such events are by definition rare, long records are required to understand their characteristics, drivers, and consequences on ecology and society. Herein we provide a unique perspective on regional-scale temperature extremes over the past millennium, using three tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from higher elevations in the European Alps. We verify the tree-ring-based extremes using documentary evidences from Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Central Europe that allowed the identification of 44 summer extremes over the 1550-2003 period. These events include cold temperatures in 1579, 1628, 1675, and 1816, as well as warm ones in 1811 and 2003. Prior to 1550, we provide new evidence for cold (e.g., 1068 and 1258) and warm (e.g., 1333) summers derived from the combined MXD records and thus help to characterize high-frequency temperature variability during medieval times. Spatial coherence of the reconstructed extremes is found over Switzerland, with most signatures even extending across Central Europe. We discuss potential limitations of the tree-ring and documentary archives, including the ( i) ability of MXD to particularly capture extremely warm temperatures, ( ii) methodological identification and relative definition of extremes, and ( iii) placement of those events in the millennium-long context of low-frequency climate change.

Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.G.; Pallister, John S.

2014-01-01

The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

Protect and Restore Lolo Creek Watershed, 2002-2003 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McRoberts, Heidi

2004-01-01

The Nez Perce Tribe Department of Fisheries Resource Management, Watershed Division approaches watershed restoration with a ridge-top to ridge-top approach. Watershed restoration projects within the Lolo Creek watershed are coordinated with the Clearwater National Forest and Potlatch Corporation. The Nez Perce Tribe began watershed restoration projects within the Lolo Creek watershed of the Clearwater River in 1996. Progress has been made in restoring the watershed by excluding cattle from critical riparian areas through fencing, stabilizing streambanks, decommissioning roads, and upgrading culverts. During the years 2000-2003, trees were planted in riparian areas of headwater streams to Lolo Creek. Inventory of culvertsmore » is an on-going practice, being completed by sub-drainage, and are being prioritized for replacement to accommodate fish passage and 100-year flow events throughout the watershed. Tribal crews completed maintenance to the previously built fence.« less

Recent Advances in General Game Playing

PubMed Central

Świechowski, Maciej; Park, HyunSoo; Mańdziuk, Jacek; Kim, Kyung-Joong

2015-01-01

The goal of General Game Playing (GGP) has been to develop computer programs that can perform well across various game types. It is natural for human game players to transfer knowledge from games they already know how to play to other similar games. GGP research attempts to design systems that work well across different game types, including unknown new games. In this review, we present a survey of recent advances (2011 to 2014) in GGP for both traditional games and video games. It is notable that research on GGP has been expanding into modern video games. Monte-Carlo Tree Search and its enhancements have been the most influential techniques in GGP for both research domains. Additionally, international competitions have become important events that promote and increase GGP research. Recently, a video GGP competition was launched. In this survey, we review recent progress in the most challenging research areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI) related to universal game playing. PMID:26380375

Atherosclerosis and leukocyte-endothelial adhesive interactions are increased following acute myocardial infarction in apolipoprotein E deficient mice.

PubMed

Wright, Andrew P; Öhman, Miina K; Hayasaki, Takanori; Luo, Wei; Russo, Hana M; Guo, Chiao; Eitzman, Daniel T

2010-10-01

To determine the effect of myocardial infarction (MI) on progression of atherosclerosis in apolipoprotein E deficient (ApoE-/-) mice. MI was induced following left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) ligation in wild-type (WT) (n=9) and ApoE-/- (n=25) mice. Compared to sham-operated animals, MI mice demonstrated increased intravascular leukocyte rolling and firm adhesion by intravital microscopy, reflecting enhanced systemic leukocyte-endothelial interactions. To determine if MI was associated with accelerated atherogenesis, LAD ligation was performed in ApoE-/- mice. Six weeks following surgery, atherosclerosis was quantitated throughout the arterial tree by microdissection and Oil-Red-O staining. There was 1.6-fold greater atherosclerotic burden present in ApoE-/- MI mice compared to sham-operated mice. Acute MI accelerates atherogenesis in mice. These results may be related to the increased risk of recurrent ischemic coronary events following MI in humans. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Progress Towards a Neutral Current $$\\pi^0$$ Cross Section Analysis in the NOvA Near Detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowles, Reed; Paley, Jonathan

The NOvA neutrino experiment is attempting to measure properties of neutrinos in order to figure out information about the universe. To detect the signal neutrino interactions, we must determine methods to identify and isolate background events. Research focused on a specific background interaction called a single prong neutral currentmore » $$\\pi^0$$ interaction. To do this, a basic cuts based analysis was performed, followed by feeding data into a multi-variate analysis package using a boosted decision tree (BDT) algorithm. Using the BDT, a a new variable was generated which separates signal and background very efficiently. Further work must still be done in order to continue improving the performance of the BDT. This research is valuable to the field of studying neutrino cross sections as it is a background which will always be present in this type of analysis.« less

Microparticle and mitochondrial release during extended storage of different types of platelet concentrates.

PubMed

Marcoux, Geneviève; Duchez, Anne-Claire; Rousseau, Matthieu; Lévesque, Tania; Boudreau, Luc H; Thibault, Louis; Boilard, Eric

2017-05-01

On activation, platelets release vesicles called microparticles (MPs). MPs are heterogeneous with regard to the presence or absence of mitochondria. We quantified MPs in platelet concentrates (PCs) taking their mitochondrial content into account. Platelet-rich plasma (PRP), buffy coat (BC) and apheresis (AP) PCs were tested through 7 days of storage. A combination of flow cytometry and spanning-tree progression analysis of density-normalized events (SPADE) was used to determine MP and mitochondrial release during storage. All the PC biochemical parameters complied with transfusion standards at all times. Platelet activation markers increased during storage and were higher for PRP than other types of PCs. Concentrations of MPs and extracellular mitochondria interpreted by SPADE algorithm were significantly higher in PRP than other in PCs and were stable throughout storage. The mode of preparation, rather than storage duration, impacts the release of MPs and mitochondria in PCs.

Recent Advances in General Game Playing.

PubMed

Świechowski, Maciej; Park, HyunSoo; Mańdziuk, Jacek; Kim, Kyung-Joong

2015-01-01

The goal of General Game Playing (GGP) has been to develop computer programs that can perform well across various game types. It is natural for human game players to transfer knowledge from games they already know how to play to other similar games. GGP research attempts to design systems that work well across different game types, including unknown new games. In this review, we present a survey of recent advances (2011 to 2014) in GGP for both traditional games and video games. It is notable that research on GGP has been expanding into modern video games. Monte-Carlo Tree Search and its enhancements have been the most influential techniques in GGP for both research domains. Additionally, international competitions have become important events that promote and increase GGP research. Recently, a video GGP competition was launched. In this survey, we review recent progress in the most challenging research areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI) related to universal game playing.

The fault-tree compiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martensen, Anna L.; Butler, Ricky W.

1987-01-01

The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N gates. The high level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precise (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) to the five digits in the answer. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Corporation VAX with the VMS operation system.

Uranium mobility across annual growth rings in three deciduous tree species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McHugh, Kelly C.; Widom, Elisabeth; Spitz, Henry B.

Black walnut (Juglans nigra), slippery elm (Ulmus rubra), and white ash (Fraxinus americana) trees were evaluated as potential archives of past uranium (U) contamination. Like other metals, U mobility in annual growth rings of trees is potentially dependent on the tree species. Uranium concentrations and isotopic compositions (masses 234, 235, 236, and 238) were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to test the efficacy of using tree rings to retroactively monitor U pollution from the FFMPC, a U purification facility operating from 1951 to 1989. This study found non-natural U (depleted U and detectable 236U) in growth rings of allmore » three tree species that pre-dated the start of operations at FFMPC and compositional trends that did not correspond with known contamination events. Therefore, the annual growth rings of these tree species cannot be used to reliably monitor the chronology of U contamination.« less

Uranium mobility across annual growth rings in three deciduous tree species.

PubMed

McHugh, Kelly C; Widom, Elisabeth; Spitz, Henry B; Wiles, Gregory C; Glover, Sam E

2018-02-01

Black walnut (Juglans nigra), slippery elm (Ulmus rubra), and white ash (Fraxinus americana) trees were evaluated as potential archives of past uranium (U) contamination. Like other metals, U mobility in annual growth rings of trees is dependent on the tree species. Uranium concentrations and isotopic compositions (masses 234, 235, 236, and 238) were analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry to test the efficacy of using tree rings to retroactively monitor U pollution from the FFMPC, a U purification facility operating from 1951 to 1989. This study found non-natural U (depleted U and detectable 236 U) in growth rings of all three tree species that pre-dated the start of operations at FFMPC and compositional trends that did not correspond with known contamination events. Therefore, the annual growth rings of these tree species cannot be used to reliably monitor the chronology of U contamination. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Fault Tree Compiler (FTC): Program and mathematics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

1989-01-01

The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top-event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, AND m OF n gates. The high-level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precisely (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) within a user specified number of digits accuracy. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX computer with the VMS operation system.

Evolutionary history of a vanishing radiation: isolation-dependent persistence and diversification in Pacific Island partulid tree snails.

PubMed

Lee, Taehwan; Li, Jingchun; Churchill, Celia K C; Foighil, Diarmaid Ó

2014-09-24

Partulid tree snails are endemic to Pacific high islands and have experienced extraordinary rates of extinction in recent decades. Although they collectively range across a 10,000 km swath of Oceania, half of the family's total species diversity is endemic to a single Eastern Pacific hot spot archipelago (the Society Islands) and all three partulid genera display highly distinctive distributions. Our goal was to investigate broad scale (range wide) and fine scale (within-Society Islands) molecular phylogenetic relationships of the two widespread genera, Partula and Samoana. What can such data tell us regarding the genesis of such divergent generic distribution patterns, and nominal species diversity levels across Oceania? Museum, captive (zoo) and contemporary field specimens enabled us to genotype 54 of the ~120 recognized species, including many extinct or extirpated taxa, from 14 archipelagoes. The genera Partula and Samoana are products of very distinct diversification processes. Originating at the western edge of the familial range, the derived genus Samoana is a relatively recent arrival in the far eastern archipelagoes (Society, Austral, Marquesas) where it exhibits a stepping-stone phylogenetic pattern and has proven adept at both intra-and inter- archipelago colonization. The pronounced east-west geographic disjunction exhibited by the genus Partula stems from a much older long-distance dispersal event and its high taxonomic diversity in the Society Islands is a product of a long history of within-archipelago diversification. The central importance of isolation for partulid lineage persistence and diversification is evident in time-calibrated phylogenetic trees that show that remote archipelagoes least impacted by continental biotas bear the oldest clades and/or the most speciose radiations. In contemporary Oceania, that isolation is being progressively undermined and these tree snails are now directly exposed to introduced continental predators throughout the family's range. Persistence of partulids in the wild will require proactive exclusion of alien predators in at least some designated refuge islands.

Analysis of transcripts differentially expressed between fruited and deflowered 'Gala' adult trees: a contribution to biennial bearing understanding in apple.

PubMed

Guitton, B; Kelner, J J; Celton, J M; Sabau, X; Renou, J P; Chagné, D; Costes, E

2016-02-29

The transition from vegetative to floral state in shoot apical meristems (SAM) is a key event in plant development and is of crucial importance for reproductive success. In perennial plants, this event is recurrent during tree life and subject to both within-tree and between-years heterogeneity. In the present study, our goal was to identify candidate processes involved in the repression or induction of flowering in apical buds of adult apple trees. Genes differentially expressed (GDE) were examined between trees artificially set in either 'ON' or 'OFF' situation, and in which floral induction (FI) was shown to be inhibited or induced in most buds, respectively, using qRT-PCR and microarray analysis. From the period of FI through to flower differentiation, GDE belonged to four main biological processes (i) response to stimuli, including response to oxidative stress; (ii) cellular processes, (iii) cell wall biogenesis, and (iv) metabolic processes including carbohydrate biosynthesis and lipid metabolic process. Several key regulator genes, especially TEMPRANILLO (TEM), FLORAL TRANSITION AT MERISTEM (FTM1) and SQUAMOSA PROMOTER BINDING PROTEIN-LIKE (SPL) were found differentially expressed. Moreover, homologs of SPL and Leucine-Rich Repeat proteins were present under QTL zones previously detected for biennial bearing. This data set suggests that apical buds of 'ON' and 'OFF' trees were in different physiological states, resulting from different metabolic, hormonal and redox status which are likely to contribute to FI control in adult apple trees. Investigations on carbohydrate and hormonal fluxes from sources to SAM and on cell detoxification process are expected to further contribute to the identification of the underlying physiological mechanisms of FI in adult apple trees.

Factors impacting stemflow generation in a European beech forest: Individual tree versus neighborhood properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, Johanna Clara; Germer, Sonja; Hildebrandt, Anke

2017-04-01

The redistribution of precipitation by canopies changes the water flow dynamics to the forest floor. The spatial pattern of throughfall has been researched in a number of studies in different ecosystems. Yet, also stemflow substantially influences water input patterns, constituting a mean of 12% of gross precipitation for European beech as one of the most abundant tree species in Central Europe. While the initiation of stemflow depends mostly on precipitation event properties, stemflow amounts are strongly shaped by canopy structure. Stemflow research has mainly addressed the impact of single tree morphological variables. In previous studies, the impact of forest structure on area-based stemflow was studied comparing plots with different properties using few exemplary stemflow measurements. In non-homogeneous stands, this approach might not be accurate, as the variation of stand properties like tree density could change tree individual stemflow fluxes. To investigate this, a total measurement of all trees per plot is required. We hypothesize, that in addition to individual tree metrics, tree neighborhood relations have a significant impact on stemflow generation in a heterogeneous beech forest. Our study site is located in the pristine forest of the National Park Hainich, central Germany. It is heterogeneous in respect to tree density, species composition and tree age. We measured stemflow in an areal approach, for all trees on 11 subplots (each 10 m x 10 m) spaced evenly throughout a 1 ha plot. This involved overall 65 trees, which is 11% of the plot's trees. 27 precipitation events were recorded in spring and early summer of 2015 and 2016. Stand properties were surveyed, including diameter at breast height, height, position and species of a tree. From this data, we calculated neighborhood properties for each tree, as number, basal area, and relative height of neighboring trees within a radius of the plot's mean tree distance. Using linear mixed effects models, we identified the different factors, individual and neighborhood, which significantly explain stemflow amount per tree. Preliminary results show, that the main impact on stemflow in our heterogeneous beech forest is due to individual tree diameter at breast height, while neighborhood factors have a smaller influence. This work defines the most important factors for stemflow fluxes, using easy-to-acquire tree and stand information, which allows the robust extrapolation of stemflow measurements and the generation of a spatially discrete pattern of stemflow input to the soil. Because of the high local and temporal concentration of precipitation, stemflow fluxes could be a key factor in forest soil water dynamics. On the long run, the results shall enable us to directly link soil water content measurements with estimated stemflow volumes for individual trees to trace stemflow fluxes into and through the soil.

Characterization of Extreme Deposition of Air Pollutants in MT. Mitchell State Park: Potential for Forest Decline and Opportunity for Cloud Deacidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defelice, Thomas Peter

The decline of forests has long been attributed to various natural (e.g. drought), man-made (e.g. logging), and perhaps, combinations of these (eg. fires caused by loggers) causes. A new type of forest decline (attributed to the deposition of air pollutants and other natural causes) has become apparent at high elevation sites in western Europe and North America; especially for above cloudbase forests like those in the Mt. Mitchell State Park. Investigations of air pollutant deposition are plentiful and laboratory studies have shown extreme deposition of these pollutants to be potentially harmful to forests. However, no field study has concentrated on these events. The primary objective of this study is to characterize (i.e., meterologically, microphysically, chemically) extreme episodes of air pollutant deposition. This study defines extreme aqueous events as having a pH < 3.1. pH's of this order are known to reduce laboratory tree growth depending on their age and species. On the average, one out of three aqueous events, sampled in the park during the 1986-1988 growing seasons (mid-May through mid-September), was extreme. Their occurrence over time may lead to the death of infant and 'old' trees, and to the reduced vigor of trees in their prime, as a result of triggering the decline mechanisms of these trees. These events usually last ~ 4.0 h, form during extended periods of high atmospheric pressure, have a liquid water content of ~ 0.10 gm^{-3}, and near typical cloud droplet sizes (~ 8.0 μm). Extreme aqueous events deposit most of their acid at their end. The deposition from the infrequent occurrences of very high ozone ( >=q100 ppb) and sulfur dioxide (>=q 5 ppb) concentrations in conjunction with these cloud events may be even more detrimental to the canopy, then that by extreme aqueous events alone. The physical characteristics of these combined events appear to include those of mature, precipitating clouds. Their occurrence may provide a clue as to how very low pH clouds might be deacidified. That is, base gases (eg. ammonia) locally introduced into such clouds at the proper time may render them harmless upon impact with the forest canopy, and beneficial to regional water supply users.

30 CFR 250.619 - Tubing and wellhead equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... during well-workover operations with the tree removed: (a) No tubing string shall be placed in service or... otherwise suitable for its intended use. (b) In the event of prolonged operations such as milling, fishing... the tree, you must: (1) Equip wells to monitor for casing pressure according to the following chart...

30 CFR 250.618 - Tubing and wellhead equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... during well-workover operations with the tree removed: (a) No tubing string shall be placed in service or... otherwise suitable for its intended use. (b) In the event of prolonged operations such as milling, fishing... the tree, you must: (1) Equip wells to monitor for casing pressure according to the following chart...

30 CFR 250.619 - Tubing and wellhead equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... during well-workover operations with the tree removed: (a) No tubing string shall be placed in service or... otherwise suitable for its intended use. (b) In the event of prolonged operations such as milling, fishing... the tree, you must: (1) Equip wells to monitor for casing pressure according to the following chart...

High-resolution climate signals in the Bølling Allerød Interstadial (Greenland Interstadial 1) as reflected in European tree-ring chronologies compared to marine varves and ice-core records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, Michael; Kromer, Bernd; Kaiser, Klaus F.; Spurk, Marco; Hughen, Konrad A.; Johnsen, Sigfus J.

2001-05-01

Lateglacial and Holocene tree-ring chronologies are unique archives, which provide various information on past environments on a true annual time scale. Changes in ring-width can be related to past climate anomalies and dendrodated wood provides an ideal source for radiocarbon calibration. We present a 1051 year tree-ring chronology from the Late Glacial, built from subfossil Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) that grew in different regions of Central and Southern Europe. Through a series of high-precision radiocarbon measurements we obtained a floating radiocarbon chronology, which allowed accurate wiggle-matching to the INTCAL98 calibration curve. The trees show a coherent pattern in ring-width variations throughout Central Europe, and extending into the Mediterranean, which indicates a strong external climatic factor, most probably temperature during the growing season. We identified major growth events, which appear synchronous with events seen in isotopic and tracer signals in the Greenland ice cores and with changes in the strength of upwelling in the Cariaco Basin.

A practical approximation algorithm for solving massive instances of hybridization number for binary and nonbinary trees.

PubMed

van Iersel, Leo; Kelk, Steven; Lekić, Nela; Scornavacca, Celine

2014-05-05

Reticulate events play an important role in determining evolutionary relationships. The problem of computing the minimum number of such events to explain discordance between two phylogenetic trees is a hard computational problem. Even for binary trees, exact solvers struggle to solve instances with reticulation number larger than 40-50. Here we present CycleKiller and NonbinaryCycleKiller, the first methods to produce solutions verifiably close to optimality for instances with hundreds or even thousands of reticulations. Using simulations, we demonstrate that these algorithms run quickly for large and difficult instances, producing solutions that are very close to optimality. As a spin-off from our simulations we also present TerminusEst, which is the fastest exact method currently available that can handle nonbinary trees: this is used to measure the accuracy of the NonbinaryCycleKiller algorithm. All three methods are based on extensions of previous theoretical work (SIDMA 26(4):1635-1656, TCBB 10(1):18-25, SIDMA 28(1):49-66) and are publicly available. We also apply our methods to real data.

Seasonally Resolved Oxygen Isotope Paleoclimate Proxy in Tree-Ring Cellulose from the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D. L.; Mora, C. I.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.; Mock, C. J.

2004-12-01

Stable isotopes in precipitation reflect changes in climate, moisture source, and extreme events such as tropical cyclones, and an oxygen isotope proxy record of these changes through time and space is preserved in tree-ring cellulose. Extreme climate events such as droughts and hurricanes are formidable natural disasters in the southeastern United States, and considerable efforts have been made to understand factors controlling their frequency, whether natural or anthropogenic. Tree rings offer an unusually well-resolved, dateable record of climate events extending beyond modern or historical (documentary) records. Oxygen isotopes in alpha-cellulose of shallowly-rooted conifers predominately reflect the composition of precipitation. Tropical storm convection results in marked 18O depletion in storm precipitation, to -15‰ relative to source seawater (~0‰ ). The depletion increases towards the eyewall of the cyclone, however, isotopically depleted precipitation may extend outward many 100's of km. Storm water 18O depletion translates to soil water 18O depletion that may persist for many weeks until ameliorated by soil water evaporation. Tree growth during that time will take up the anomalous isotopic compositions. Distinctive earlywood (EW ~March-June) versus latewood (LW ~July-October) growth allows the rings to be resolved at an intra-annual (seasonal) scale. By comparison to average soil water, droughts result in 18O-enriched soil water compositions. Seasonal drought or years of continued drought will be similarly captured in the isotope compositions of tree-ring cellulose. A 227-year (1770-1997) seasonally-resolved record of tropical cyclone and drought activity was obtained from cross-sections of felled slash pines (Pinus elliottii Engelm.) and remnant longleaf pines (Pinus palustris Mill.) from southern Georgia. Interpretations of drought or hurricane events were tested by comparison with recent, detailed meteorological records. The 227-year record reveals most previously established hurricane events, including Florence (1953) and the Great Hurricane of 1780. Newly recognized tropical storms such as 1857 are also evident. Significant seasonal droughts such as 1955, 1927, 1904 and 1896, are observed for southeastern Georgia. Larger-scale climate oscillations appear to overprint the EW and LW isotope series, displaying periods of relatively large or small differences in EW and LW δ 18O values. The oscillations are interpreted to reflect dominant climate modes that influence moisture source or seasonal temperature variation. The tree-ring record potentially extends many centuries. A preliminary record through a portion of the North American "Little Ice Age" (1580-1650) indicates a significant reduction in tropical cyclone activity.

Exact Algorithms for Duplication-Transfer-Loss Reconciliation with Non-Binary Gene Trees.

PubMed

Kordi, Misagh; Bansal, Mukul S

2017-06-01

Duplication-Transfer-Loss (DTL) reconciliation is a powerful method for studying gene family evolution in the presence of horizontal gene transfer. DTL reconciliation seeks to reconcile gene trees with species trees by postulating speciation, duplication, transfer, and loss events. Efficient algorithms exist for finding optimal DTL reconciliations when the gene tree is binary. In practice, however, gene trees are often non-binary due to uncertainty in the gene tree topologies, and DTL reconciliation with non-binary gene trees is known to be NP-hard. In this paper, we present the first exact algorithms for DTL reconciliation with non-binary gene trees. Specifically, we (i) show that the DTL reconciliation problem for non-binary gene trees is fixed-parameter tractable in the maximum degree of the gene tree, (ii) present an exponential-time, but in-practice efficient, algorithm to track and enumerate all optimal binary resolutions of a non-binary input gene tree, and (iii) apply our algorithms to a large empirical data set of over 4700 gene trees from 100 species to study the impact of gene tree uncertainty on DTL-reconciliation and to demonstrate the applicability and utility of our algorithms. The new techniques and algorithms introduced in this paper will help biologists avoid incorrect evolutionary inferences caused by gene tree uncertainty.

Water uptake of trees in a montane forest catchment and the geomorphological potential of root growth in Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory, Rocky Mountains, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skeets, B.; Barnard, H. R.; Byers, A.

2011-12-01

The influence of vegetation on the hydrological cycle and the possible effect of roots in geomorphological processes are poorly understood. Gordon Gulch watershed in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, is a montane climate ecosystem of the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory whose study adds to the database of ecohydrological work in different climates. This work sought to identify the sources of water used by different tree species and to determine how trees growing in rock outcrops may contribute to the fracturing and weathering of rock. Stable isotopes (18O and 2H) were analyzed from water extracted from soil and xylem samples. Pinus ponderosa on the south-facing slope consumes water from deeper depths during dry periods and uses newly rain-saturated soils, after rainfall events. Pinus contorta on the north -facing slope shows a similar, expected response in water consumption, before and after rain. Two trees (Pinus ponderosa) growing within rock outcrops demonstrate water use from cracks replenished by new rains. An underexplored question in geomorphology is whether tree roots growing in rock outcrops contribute to long-term geomorphological processes by physically deteriorating the bedrock. The dominant roots of measured trees contributed approximately 30 - 80% of total water use, seen especially after rainfall events. Preliminary analysis of root growth rings indicates that root growth is capable of expanding rock outcrop fractures at an approximate rate of 0.6 - 1.0 mm per year. These results demonstrate the significant role roots play in tree physiological processes and in bedrock deterioration.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Bodoque, José M.; Ballesteros, Juan A.

2010-06-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of Flash Floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés.; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; María Bodoque, José; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio

2010-05-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees (Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash-flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series, and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash-flood events during the last ~50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Estimation on rubber tree disturbance caused by typhoon Damery (200518) with Landsat and MODIS data in Hainan Island of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chenyan; Fang, Weihua; Li, Jian

2016-04-01

In 2005, Typhoon Damery (200518) caused severe damage to the rubber trees in Hainan Island with its destructive winds and rainfall. Selection of proper vegetation indices using multi-source remote sensing data is critical to the assessment of forest disturbance and damage loss for this event. In this study, we will compare the performance of seven vegetation indices derived from MODIS and Landsat TM imageries prior to and after typhoon Damery, in order to select an optimal index for identifying rubber tree disturbance. The indices to be compared are normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), Enhanced vegetation index (EVI), Leaf area index (LAI), forest z-score (IFZ), and Disturbance Index (DI). The ground truth data of rubber tree damage collected through field investigation was used to verify and compare the results. Our preliminary result for the area with ground-truth data shows that DI has the most significant performance for disturbance detection for this typhoon event. This index DI is then applied to all the areas in Hainan Island hit by Darmey to evaluate the overall forest damage severity. At last, rubber tree damage severity is analyzed with other typhoon hazard factors such as wind, topography, soil and precipitation.

Tree diversity does not always improve resistance of forest ecosystems to drought.

PubMed

Grossiord, Charlotte; Granier, André; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Bouriaud, Olivier; Bruelheide, Helge; Chećko, Ewa; Forrester, David Ian; Dawud, Seid Muhie; Finér, Leena; Pollastrini, Martina; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Valladares, Fernando; Bonal, Damien; Gessler, Arthur

2014-10-14

Climate models predict an increase in the intensity and frequency of drought episodes in the Northern Hemisphere. Among terrestrial ecosystems, forests will be profoundly impacted by drier climatic conditions, with drastic consequences for the functions and services they supply. Simultaneously, biodiversity is known to support a wide range of forest ecosystem functions and services. However, whether biodiversity also improves the resistance of these ecosystems to drought remains unclear. We compared soil drought exposure levels in a total of 160 forest stands within five major forest types across Europe along a gradient of tree species diversity. We assessed soil drought exposure in each forest stand by calculating the stand-level increase in carbon isotope composition of late wood from a wet to a dry year (Δδ(13)CS). Δδ(13)CS exhibited a negative linear relationship with tree species diversity in two forest types, suggesting that species interactions in these forests diminished the drought exposure of the ecosystem. However, the other three forest types were unaffected by tree species diversity. We conclude that higher diversity enhances resistance to drought events only in drought-prone environments. Managing forest ecosystems for high tree species diversity does not necessarily assure improved adaptability to the more severe and frequent drought events predicted for the future.

Computing all hybridization networks for multiple binary phylogenetic input trees.

PubMed

Albrecht, Benjamin

2015-07-30

The computation of phylogenetic trees on the same set of species that are based on different orthologous genes can lead to incongruent trees. One possible explanation for this behavior are interspecific hybridization events recombining genes of different species. An important approach to analyze such events is the computation of hybridization networks. This work presents the first algorithm computing the hybridization number as well as a set of representative hybridization networks for multiple binary phylogenetic input trees on the same set of taxa. To improve its practical runtime, we show how this algorithm can be parallelized. Moreover, we demonstrate the efficiency of the software Hybroscale, containing an implementation of our algorithm, by comparing it to PIRNv2.0, which is so far the best available software computing the exact hybridization number for multiple binary phylogenetic trees on the same set of taxa. The algorithm is part of the software Hybroscale, which was developed specifically for the investigation of hybridization networks including their computation and visualization. Hybroscale is freely available(1) and runs on all three major operating systems. Our simulation study indicates that our approach is on average 100 times faster than PIRNv2.0. Moreover, we show how Hybroscale improves the interpretation of the reported hybridization networks by adding certain features to its graphical representation.

Testing for Polytomies in Phylogenetic Species Trees Using Quartet Frequencies.

PubMed

Sayyari, Erfan; Mirarab, Siavash

2018-02-28

Phylogenetic species trees typically represent the speciation history as a bifurcating tree. Speciation events that simultaneously create more than two descendants, thereby creating polytomies in the phylogeny, are possible. Moreover, the inability to resolve relationships is often shown as a (soft) polytomy. Both types of polytomies have been traditionally studied in the context of gene tree reconstruction from sequence data. However, polytomies in the species tree cannot be detected or ruled out without considering gene tree discordance. In this paper, we describe a statistical test based on properties of the multi-species coalescent model to test the null hypothesis that a branch in an estimated species tree should be replaced by a polytomy. On both simulated and biological datasets, we show that the null hypothesis is rejected for all but the shortest branches, and in most cases, it is retained for true polytomies. The test, available as part of the Accurate Species TRee ALgorithm (ASTRAL) package, can help systematists decide whether their datasets are sufficient to resolve specific relationships of interest.

Testing for Polytomies in Phylogenetic Species Trees Using Quartet Frequencies

PubMed Central

Sayyari, Erfan

2018-01-01

Phylogenetic species trees typically represent the speciation history as a bifurcating tree. Speciation events that simultaneously create more than two descendants, thereby creating polytomies in the phylogeny, are possible. Moreover, the inability to resolve relationships is often shown as a (soft) polytomy. Both types of polytomies have been traditionally studied in the context of gene tree reconstruction from sequence data. However, polytomies in the species tree cannot be detected or ruled out without considering gene tree discordance. In this paper, we describe a statistical test based on properties of the multi-species coalescent model to test the null hypothesis that a branch in an estimated species tree should be replaced by a polytomy. On both simulated and biological datasets, we show that the null hypothesis is rejected for all but the shortest branches, and in most cases, it is retained for true polytomies. The test, available as part of the Accurate Species TRee ALgorithm (ASTRAL) package, can help systematists decide whether their datasets are sufficient to resolve specific relationships of interest. PMID:29495636

Comparing Phylogenetic Trees by Matching Nodes Using the Transfer Distance Between Partitions

PubMed Central

Giaro, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Abstract Ability to quantify dissimilarity of different phylogenetic trees describing the relationship between the same group of taxa is required in various types of phylogenetic studies. For example, such metrics are used to assess the quality of phylogeny construction methods, to define optimization criteria in supertree building algorithms, or to find horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events. Among the set of metrics described so far in the literature, the most commonly used seems to be the Robinson–Foulds distance. In this article, we define a new metric for rooted trees—the Matching Pair (MP) distance. The MP metric uses the concept of the minimum-weight perfect matching in a complete bipartite graph constructed from partitions of all pairs of leaves of the compared phylogenetic trees. We analyze the properties of the MP metric and present computational experiments showing its potential applicability in tasks related to finding the HGT events. PMID:28177699

Description of an establishment event by the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in a suburban landscape in the northeastern United States

PubMed Central

Pepper, Eugene; Davis, Kevin; Trotter, Robert Talbot

2017-01-01

The establishment of non-native species is commonly described as occurring in three phases: arrival, establishment, and dispersal. Both arrival and dispersal by the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky), a xylophagous Cerambycid native to China and the Korean peninsula, has been documented for multiple locations in both North America and Europe, however the transitional phase, establishment, is not well understood for this species due to the need to rapidly remove populations to prevent dispersal and assist eradication, and the evident variation in the behavior of populations. Here we describe the dynamics of an establishment event for the Asian longhorned beetle in a small, isolated population within the regulated quarantine zone near Worcester, Massachusetts, USA. These data were collected during an opportunity afforded by logistical limits on the Cooperative Asian Longhorned Beetle Eradication Program administered by state, federal, and local government partners. Seventy-one infested red maple (Acer rubrum) trees and 456 interspersed un-infested trees were surveyed in an isolated, recently established population within a ~0.29 ha stand in a suburban wetland conservation area in which nearly 90% of the trees were host species, and nearly 80% were Acer rubrum. Tree-ring analyses show that within this establishing population, Asian longhorned beetles initially infested one or two A. rubrum, before moving through the stand to infest additional A. rubrum based not on distance or direction, but on tree size, with infestation biased towards trees with larger trunk diameters. Survey data from the larger landscape suggest this population may have generated long-distance dispersers (~1400 m), and that these dispersal events occurred before the originally infested host trees were fully exploited by the beetle. The distribution and intensity of damage documented in this population suggest dispersal here may have been spatially more rapid and diffuse than in other documented infestations. Dispersal at these larger spatial scales also implies that when beetles move beyond the closed canopy of the stand, the direction of dispersal may be linked to prevailing winds. PMID:28727772

Abrupt Increases in Amazonian Tree Mortality Due to Drought-Fire Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silverio, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nobrega, Caroline C.;

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

PubMed

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

2014-04-29

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change.

Estimating drought induced tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest: A simulation study with a focus on plant hydraulic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papastefanou, P.; Fleischer, K.; Hickler, T.; Grams, T.; Lapola, D.; Quesada, C. A.; Zang, C.; Rammig, A.

2017-12-01

The Amazon basin was recently hit by severe drought events that were unprecedented in their severity and spatial extent, e.g. during 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016. Significant amounts of biomass were lost, turning large parts of the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source. It is assumed that drought-induced tree mortality from hydraulic failure played an important role during these events and may become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future. Many state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models do not include plant hydraulic processes and fail to reproduce observed rainforest responses to drought events, such as e.g. increased tree mortality. We address this research gap by developing a simple plant-hydraulic module for the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This plant-hydraulic module uses leaf water potential and cavitation as baseline processes to simulate tree mortality under drought stress. Furthermore, we introduce different plant strategies in the model, which describe e.g. differences in the stomatal regulation under drought stress. To parameterize and evaluate our hydraulic module, we use a set of available observational data from the Amazon region. We apply our model to the Amazon Basin and highlight similarities and differences across other measured and predicted drought responses, e.g. extrapolated observations and data derived from satellite measurements. Our results highlight the importance of including plant hydraulic processes in dynamic vegetation models to correctly predict vegetation dynamics under drought stress and show major differences on the vegetation dynamics depending on the selected plant strategies. We also identify gaps in process understanding of the triggering factors, the extent and the consequences of drought responses that hampers our ability to predict potential impact of future drought events on the Amazon rainforest.

Wood anatomical analysis of Alnus incana and Betula pendula injured by a debris-flow event.

PubMed

Arbellay, Estelle; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle

2010-10-01

Vessel chronologies in ring-porous species have been successfully employed in the past to extract the climate signal from tree rings. Environmental signals recorded in vessels of ring-porous species have also been used in previous studies to reconstruct discrete events of drought, flooding and insect defoliation. However, very little is known about the ability of diffuse-porous species to record environmental signals in their xylem cells. Moreover, time series of wood anatomical features have only rarely been used to reconstruct former geomorphic events. This study was therefore undertaken to characterize the wood anatomical response of diffuse-porous Alnus incana (L.) Moench and Betula pendula Roth to debris-flow-induced wounding. Tree microscopic response to wounding was assessed through the analysis of wood anatomical differences between injured rings formed in the debris-flow event year and uninjured rings formed in the previous year. The two ring types were examined close and opposite to the injury in order to determine whether wound effects on xylem cells decrease with increasing tangential distance from the injury. Image analysis was used to measure vessel parameters as well as fiber and parenchyma cell (FPC) parameters. The results of this study indicate that injured rings are characterized by smaller vessels as compared with uninjured rings. By contrast, FPC parameters were not found to significantly differ between injured and uninjured rings. Vessel and FPC parameters mainly remained constant with increasing tangential distance from the injury, except for a higher proportion of vessel lumen area opposite to the injury within A. incana. This study highlights the existence of anatomical tree-ring signatures-in the form of smaller vessels-related to past debris-flow activity and addresses a new methodological approach to date injuries inflicted on trees by geomorphic processes.

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

2014-01-01

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-01-01

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-03-31

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

The ethnobotany of Christ's Thorn Jujube (Ziziphus spina-christi) in Israel

PubMed Central

Dafni, Amots; Levy, Shay; Lev, Efraim

2005-01-01

This article surveys the ethnobotany of Ziziphus spina-christi (L.) Desf. in the Middle East from various aspects: historical, religious, philological, literary, linguistic, as well as pharmacological, among Muslims, Jews, and Christians. It is suggested that this is the only tree species considered "holy" by Muslims (all the individuals of the species are sanctified by religion) in addition to its status as "sacred tree " (particular trees which are venerated due to historical or magical events related to them, regardless of their botanical identity) in the Middle East. It has also a special status as "blessed tree" among the Druze. PMID:16270941

The importance of drought-pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Gu, Lianhong

2018-01-01

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought-pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and ‘background’ mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought-pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesized (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought-Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought-pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.

Dendrogeomorphic Assessment of the Rattlesnake Gulf Landslide in the Tully Valley, Onondaga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tamulonis, Kathryn L.; Kappel, William M.

2009-01-01

Dendrogeomorphic techniques were used to assess soil movement within the Rattlesnake Gulf landslide in the Tully Valley of central New York during the last century. This landslide is a postglacial, slow-moving earth slide that covers 23 acres and consists primarily of rotated, laminated, glaciolacustrine silt and clay. Sixty-two increment cores were obtained from 30 hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) trees across the active part of the landslide and from 3 control sites to interpret the soil-displacement history. Annual growth rings were measured and reaction wood was identified to indicate years in which ring growth changed from concentric to eccentric, on the premise that soil movement triggered compensatory growth in displaced trees. These data provided a basis for an 'event index' to identify years of landslide activity over the 108 years of record represented by the oldest trees. Event-index values and total annual precipitation increased during this time, but years with sudden event-index increases did not necessarily correspond to years with above-average precipitation. Multiple-regression and residual-values analyses indicated a possible correlation between precipitation and movement within the landslide and a possible cyclic (decades-long) tree-ring response to displacement within the landslide area from the toe upward to, and possibly beyond, previously formed landslide features. The soil movement is triggered by a sequence of factors that include (1) periods of several months with below-average precipitation followed by persistent above-average precipitation, (2) the attendant increase in streamflow, which erodes the landslide toe and results in an upslope propagation of slumping, and (3) the harvesting of mature trees within this landslide during the last century and continuing to the present.

Effects of a natural dam-break flood on geomorphology and vegetation on the Elwha River, Washington, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Acker, S.A.; Beechie, T.J.; Shafroth, P.B.

2008-01-01

Ephemeral dams caused by landslides have been observed around the world, yet little is known about the effects of their failure on landforms and vegetation. In 1967, a landslide-dam-break flood in a pristine reach of the Elwha River valley filled the former channel and diverted the river. The reach is a reference site for restoration following the planned removal of dams on the river. We identified five surfaces on the 25 ha debris fan deposited by the flood. Based on tree ages and historic air photos, three of the surfaces formed in 1967, while two formed later. The surfaces varied in substrate (silt and sand, to boulders), and height above the river channel. Tree mortality resulted from tree removal and burial by sediment, the latter leaving snags and some surviving trees. Tree species composition was generally consistent within each surface. Dominant species included red alder (Alnus rubra) and Sitka willow (Salix sitchensis), alone or in combination, a combination of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and black cottonwood (Populus balsamifera ssp. trichocarpa), or a combination of alder and Cottonwood. There were significant differences between surfaces in stem density, basal area, and rate of basal area growth. The large degree of heterogeneity in forest structure, composition, and productivity within a relatively small floodplain feature is in part due to spatial variability in the intensity of a single disturbance event, and in part due to the occurrence of subsequent, smaller events. To recreate natural diversity of riparian forests may require mimicking the variety of physical and biotic habitats that a single, complex disturbance event may create.

The importance of drought–pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

DOE PAGES

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie; ...

2017-10-20

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought–pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and 'background' mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought–pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesizedmore » (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought–Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought–pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.« less

The importance of drought–pathogen interactions in driving oak mortality events in the Ozark Border Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Jeffrey D.; Knapp, Benjamin O.; Muzika, Rose-Marie

Forests are expected to become more vulnerable to drought-induced tree mortality owing to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns that amplify drought lethality. There is a crucial knowledge gap regarding drought–pathogen interactions and their effects on tree mortality. The objectives of this research were to examine whether stand dynamics and 'background' mortality rates were affected by a severe drought in 2012; and to evaluate the importance of drought–pathogen interactions within the context of a mortality event that killed 10.0% and 26.5% of white (Quercus alba L.) and black (Q. velutina Lam.) oak stems, respectively, in a single year. We synthesizedmore » (i) forest inventory data (24 years), (ii) 11 years of ecosystem flux data with supporting biological data including predawn leaf water potential and annual forest inventories, (iii) tree-ring analyses of individual white oaks that were alive and ones that died in 2013, and (iv) documentation of a pathogen infection. This forest displayed stand dynamics consistent with expected patterns of decreasing tree density and increasing basal area. Continued basal area growth outpaced mortality implying a net accumulation of live biomass, which was supported by eddy covariance ecosystem carbon flux observations. Individual white and black oaks that died in 2013 displayed historically lower growth with the majority of dead trees exhibiting Biscogniauxia cankers. Our observations point to the importance of event-based oak mortality and that drought–Biscogniauxia interactions are important in shaping oak stand dynamics in this region. Although forest function has not been significantly impaired, these drought–pathogen interactions could amplify mortality under future climate conditions and thus warrant further investigation.« less

Landscape-scale consequences of differential tree mortality from catastrophic wind disturbance in the Amazon.

PubMed

Rifai, Sami W; Urquiza Muñoz, José D; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Ramírez Arévalo, Fredy R; Tello-Espinoza, Rodil; Vanderwel, Mark C; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Bohlman, Stephanie A

2016-10-01

Wind disturbance can create large forest blowdowns, which greatly reduces live biomass and adds uncertainty to the strength of the Amazon carbon sink. Observational studies from within the central Amazon have quantified blowdown size and estimated total mortality but have not determined which trees are most likely to die from a catastrophic wind disturbance. Also, the impact of spatial dependence upon tree mortality from wind disturbance has seldom been quantified, which is important because wind disturbance often kills clusters of trees due to large treefalls killing surrounding neighbors. We examine (1) the causes of differential mortality between adult trees from a 300-ha blowdown event in the Peruvian region of the northwestern Amazon, (2) how accounting for spatial dependence affects mortality predictions, and (3) how incorporating both differential mortality and spatial dependence affect the landscape level estimation of necromass produced from the blowdown. Standard regression and spatial regression models were used to estimate how stem diameter, wood density, elevation, and a satellite-derived disturbance metric influenced the probability of tree death from the blowdown event. The model parameters regarding tree characteristics, topography, and spatial autocorrelation of the field data were then used to determine the consequences of non-random mortality for landscape production of necromass through a simulation model. Tree mortality was highly non-random within the blowdown, where tree mortality rates were highest for trees that were large, had low wood density, and were located at high elevation. Of the differential mortality models, the non-spatial models overpredicted necromass, whereas the spatial model slightly underpredicted necromass. When parameterized from the same field data, the spatial regression model with differential mortality estimated only 7.5% more dead trees across the entire blowdown than the random mortality model, yet it estimated 51% greater necromass. We suggest that predictions of forest carbon loss from wind disturbance are sensitive to not only the underlying spatial dependence of observations, but also the biological differences between individuals that promote differential levels of mortality. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Oncogenetic tree model of somatic mutations and DNA methylation in colon tumors.

PubMed

Sweeney, Carol; Boucher, Kenneth M; Samowitz, Wade S; Wolff, Roger K; Albertsen, Hans; Curtin, Karen; Caan, Bette J; Slattery, Martha L

2009-01-01

Our understanding of somatic alterations in colon cancer has evolved from a concept of a series of events taking place in a single sequence to a recognition of multiple pathways. An oncogenetic tree is a model intended to describe the pathways and sequence of somatic alterations in carcinogenesis without assuming that tumors will fall in mutually exclusive categories. We applied this model to data on colon tumor somatic alterations. An oncogenetic tree model was built using data on mutations of TP53, KRAS2, APC, and BRAF genes, methylation at CpG sites of MLH1 and TP16 genes, methylation in tumor (MINT) markers, and microsatellite instability (MSI) for 971 colon tumors from a population-based series. Oncogenetic tree analysis resulted in a reproducible tree with three branches. The model represents methylation of MINT markers as initiating a branch and predisposing to MSI, methylation of MHL1 and TP16, and BRAF mutation. APC mutation is the first alteration in an independent branch and is followed by TP53 mutation. KRAS2 mutation was placed a third independent branch, implying that it neither depends on, nor predisposes to, the other alterations. Individual tumors were observed to have alteration patterns representing every combination of one, two, or all three branches. The oncogenetic tree model assumptions are appropriate for the observed heterogeneity of colon tumors, and the model produces a useful visual schematic of the sequence of events in pathways of colon carcinogenesis.

Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Arsdale, Roy B.; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Guccione, Margaret J.

1998-06-01

Severe ground shaking and the formation of Reelfoot Lake during the great New Madrid earthquakes of a.d. 1811 1812 had a profound effect on baldcypress trees that still survive in Reelfoot Lake of northwestern Tennessee. Inundation greatly increased baldcypress radial growth from 1812 to 1819 and permanently decreased wood density after 1811. Ground shaking fractured the baldcypress stems that were present during the 1811 1812 event, but fractures are absent in the post-1811 growth. In contrast, the growth of old baldcypress trees in the St. Francis sunkland of northeastern Arkansas was severely suppressed for almost 50 yr following the 1811 1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Thus, there are two opposite but profound growth responses to the same earthquake events preserved in baldcypress trees of the New Madrid seismic zone. The tree-ring chronology at Reelfoot Lake extends from a.d. 1682 to 1990, but the 1812 1819 growth surge was the only extreme growth anomaly in this 309 yr period. The St. Francis sunkland chronology extends from a.d. 1321 to 1990, and the 1812 1857 growth suppression is the most severe and prolonged growth anomaly of this entire 670 year period. Thus, the tree-ring record indicates that there was not a great earthquake during the 129 yr prior to 1811 in the Reelfoot Lake basin, nor during the 490 yr prior to 1811 in the St. Francis sunkland.

Measuring and modelling interception loss by an isolated olive tree in a traditional olive grove - pasture system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nóbrega, Cristina; Pereira, Fernando L.; Valente, Fernanda

2015-04-01

Water losses associated to the rainfall interception process by trees can be an important component of the local hydrologic balance and must be accounted for when implementing any sustainable water management programme. In many dry areas of the Mediterranean region where agro-forestry systems are common, those programmes are crucial to foster adequate water conservation measures. Recent studies have shown that the evaluation of interception loss in sparse forests or tree plantations should be made for individual trees, being the total value determined as the sum of the individual contributions. Following this approach, rainfall interception was measured and modelled over two years, in an isolated Olea europeaea L. tree, in a traditional low-density olive grove in Castelo Branco, central Portugal. Total interception loss over the experimental period was 243.5 mm, on a tree crown projected area basis, corresponding to 18.0% of gross rainfall (Pg). Modelling made for each rainfall event using the sparse version of the Gash model, slightly underestimated interception loss with a value of 240.5 mm, i.e., 17.8 % ofPg. Modelling quality, evaluated according to a number of criteria, was good, allowing the conclusion that the methodology used was adequate. Modelling was also made on a daily basis, i.e., assuming a single storm per rainday. In this case, interception loss was overestimated by 12%, mostly because 72% of all rainfall events lasted for more than a day.

The critical amplifying role of increasing atmospheric moisture demand on tree mortality and associated regional die-off

DOE PAGES

Breshears, David D.; Adams, Henry D.; Eamus, Derek; ...

2013-08-02

Drought-induced tree mortality, including large-scale die-off events and increases in background rates of mortality, is a global phenomenon (Allen et al., 2010) that can directly impact numerous earth system properties and ecosystem goods and services (Adams et al., 2010; Breshears et al., 2011; Anderegg et al., 2013). Tree mortality is particularly of concern because of the likelihood that it will increase in frequency and extent with climate change (McDowell et al., 2008, 2011; Adams et al., 2009; McDowell, 2011; Williams et al., 2013). Recent plant science advances related to drought have focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms that not onlymore » affect plant growth and associated carbon metabolism, but also the more challenging issue of predicting plant mortality thresholds (McDowell et al., 2013). Although some advances related to mechanisms of mortality have been made and have increased emphasis on interrelationships between carbon metabolism and plant hydraulics (McDowell et al., 2011), notably few studies have specifically evaluated effects of increasing atmospheric demand for moisture (i.e., vapour pressure deficit; VPD) on rates of tree death. In this opinion article we highlight the importance of considering the key risks of future large-scale tree die-off and other mortality events arising from increased VPD. Here we focus on mortality of trees, but our point about the importance of VPD is also relevant to other vascular plants.« less

Spatial contagiousness of canopy disturbance in tropical rain forest: an individual-tree-based test.

PubMed

Jansen, Patrick A; van der Meer, Peter J; Bongers, Frans

2008-12-01

Spatial contagiousness of canopy dynamics-the tendency of canopy disturbances to occur nearby existing canopy openings due to an elevated risk of tree fall around gaps-has been demonstrated in many temperate-zone forests, but only inferentially for tropical forests. Hypothesized mechanisms increasing the risk of tree fall around tropical forest gaps are (1) increased tree exposure to wind around gaps, (2) reduced stability of trees alongside gaps due to crown asymmetry, or (3) reduced tree health around gaps due to damage from prior disturbances. One hypothesized consequence of elevated disturbance levels around gaps would be that gap-edge zones offer relatively favorable prospects for seedling recruitment, growth, and survival. We tested whether disturbance levels are indeed elevated around natural canopy gaps in a neotropical rain forest in French Guiana, and more so as gaps are larger. We followed the fate of 5660 trees >10 cm stem diameter over five years across 12 ha of old-growth forest and analyzed the risk and magnitude of canopy disturbance events in relation to tree diameter and the proximity and size of natural canopy gaps. We found that the cumulative incidence of disturbance over the five-year survey was not significantly elevated around preexisting gaps, and only weakly related to gap size. Also, neither the risk nor the magnitude of canopy disturbances increased significantly with the proximity of gaps. Moreover, canopy disturbance risk around gaps was independent of gap size, while the magnitude of disturbance events around gaps was weakly related to gap size. Tree size was the major driver of disturbance risk as well as magnitude. We did find an elevated incidence of disturbance inside preexisting gaps, but this "repeat disturbance" was due to an elevated disturbance risk inside gaps, not around gaps. Overall, we found no strong evidence for canopy dynamics in this rain forest being spatially contagious. Our findings are consistent with the traditional view of tropical rain forests as mosaics of patches with predictable regeneration cycles.

A Fault Tree Approach to Analysis of Behavioral Systems: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Kent G.

Developed at Brigham Young University, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a technique for enhancing the probability of success in any system by analyzing the most likely modes of failure that could occur. It provides a logical, step-by-step description of possible failure events within a system and their interaction--the combinations of potential…

Rene Saldana's "The Jumping Tree": Exploring Childhood Universals through a Hispanic Novel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, Beatrice Mendez

2006-01-01

In "The Jumping Tree", set in Nuevo Penitas, an actual South Texas town, 12-year-old Rey Castaneda recounts landmark events in his journey toward becoming a man. Rey's stories of his childhood escapades, adventures, and everyday experiences could be anyone's childhood stories. When readers have finished the last page, they have relived the…

Basic tree-ring sample preparation techniques for aging aspen

Treesearch

Lance A. Asherin; Stephen A. Mata

2001-01-01

Aspen is notoriously difficult to age because of its light-colored wood and faint annual growth rings. Careful preparation and processing of aspen ring samples can overcome these problems, yield accurate age and growth estimates, and concisely date disturbance events present in the tree-ring record. Proper collection of aspen wood is essential in obtaining usable ring...

Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii) Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

2011-12-01

The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations, and disturbance events. Because slash pine growth is dependent on water availability, a chronology developed using carbon isotopes may provide greater insight into plant stress over time and ultimately may lead to better correlations with climate oscillations. The work presented here is the preliminary result of a carbon-isotope study of four slash pine trees from Big Pine Key, Florida. Initial δ13C data show seasonal stomatal activity in the trees and indicate the timing of possible disturbance events.

Histological Examination of Horse Chestnut Infection by Pseudomonas syringae pv. aesculi and Non-Destructive Heat Treatment to Stop Disease Progression

PubMed Central

de Keijzer, Jeroen; van den Broek, Lambertus A. M.; Ketelaar, Tijs; van Lammeren, André A. M.

2012-01-01

Since its emergence in Northwest Europe as a pathogen that infects trunks and branches of Aesculus spp. (the horse chestnuts) approximately one decade ago, Pseudomonas syringae pv. aesculi has rapidly established itself as major threat to these trees. Infected trees exhibit extensive necrosis of phloem and cambium, which can ultimately lead to dieback. The events after host entry leading to extensive necrosis are not well documented. In this work, the histopathology of this interaction is investigated and heat-treatment is explored as method to eradicate bacteria associated with established infections. The early wound-repair responses of A. hippocastanum, both in absence and presence of P. s. pv. aesculi, included cell wall lignification by a distinct layer of phloem and cortex parenchyma cells. The same cells also deposited suberin lamellae later on, suggesting this layer functions in compartmentalizing healthy from disrupted tissues. However, monitoring bacterial ingress, its construction appeared inadequate to constrain pathogen spread. Microscopic evaluation of bacterial dispersal in situ using immunolabelling and GFP-tagging of P. s. pv. aesculi, revealed two discriminative types of bacterial colonization. The forefront of lesions was found to contain densely packed bacteria, while necrotic areas housed bacterial aggregates with scattered individuals embedded in an extracellular matrix of bacterial origin containing alginate. The endophytic localization and ability of P. s. pv aesculi to create a protective matrix render it poorly accessible for control agents. To circumvent this, a method based on selective bacterial lethality at 39°C was conceived and successfully tested on A. hippocastanum saplings, providing proof of concept for controlling this disease by heat-treatment. This may be applicable for curing other tree cankers, caused by related phytopathogens. PMID:22808044

Histological examination of horse chestnut infection by Pseudomonas syringae pv. aesculi and non-destructive heat treatment to stop disease progression.

PubMed

de Keijzer, Jeroen; van den Broek, Lambertus A M; Ketelaar, Tijs; van Lammeren, André A M

2012-01-01

Since its emergence in Northwest Europe as a pathogen that infects trunks and branches of Aesculus spp. (the horse chestnuts) approximately one decade ago, Pseudomonas syringae pv. aesculi has rapidly established itself as major threat to these trees. Infected trees exhibit extensive necrosis of phloem and cambium, which can ultimately lead to dieback. The events after host entry leading to extensive necrosis are not well documented. In this work, the histopathology of this interaction is investigated and heat-treatment is explored as method to eradicate bacteria associated with established infections. The early wound-repair responses of A. hippocastanum, both in absence and presence of P. s. pv. aesculi, included cell wall lignification by a distinct layer of phloem and cortex parenchyma cells. The same cells also deposited suberin lamellae later on, suggesting this layer functions in compartmentalizing healthy from disrupted tissues. However, monitoring bacterial ingress, its construction appeared inadequate to constrain pathogen spread. Microscopic evaluation of bacterial dispersal in situ using immunolabelling and GFP-tagging of P. s. pv. aesculi, revealed two discriminative types of bacterial colonization. The forefront of lesions was found to contain densely packed bacteria, while necrotic areas housed bacterial aggregates with scattered individuals embedded in an extracellular matrix of bacterial origin containing alginate. The endophytic localization and ability of P. s. pv aesculi to create a protective matrix render it poorly accessible for control agents. To circumvent this, a method based on selective bacterial lethality at 39 °C was conceived and successfully tested on A. hippocastanum saplings, providing proof of concept for controlling this disease by heat-treatment. This may be applicable for curing other tree cankers, caused by related phytopathogens.

Observing Spring and Fall Phenology in a Deciduous Forest with Aerial Drone Imagery.

PubMed

Klosterman, Stephen; Richardson, Andrew D

2017-12-08

Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems and controls the timing of key ecosystem functions including photosynthesis and transpiration. Aerial drone imagery and photogrammetric techniques promise to advance the study of phenology by enabling the creation of distortion-free orthomosaics of plant canopies at the landscape scale, but with branch-level image resolution. The main goal of this study is to determine the leaf life cycle events corresponding to phenological metrics derived from automated analyses based on color indices calculated from drone imagery. For an oak-dominated, temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern USA, we find that plant area index (PAI) correlates with a canopy greenness index during spring green-up, and a canopy redness index during autumn senescence. Additionally, greenness and redness metrics are significantly correlated with the timing of budburst and leaf expansion on individual trees in spring. However, we note that the specific color index for individual trees must be carefully chosen if new foliage in spring appears red, rather than green-which we observed for some oak trees. In autumn, both decreasing greenness and increasing redness correlate with leaf senescence. Maximum redness indicates the beginning of leaf fall, and the progression of leaf fall correlates with decreasing redness. We also find that cooler air temperature microclimates near a forest edge bordering a wetland advance the onset of senescence. These results demonstrate the use of drones for characterizing the organismic-level variability of phenology in a forested landscape and advance our understanding of which phenophase transitions correspond to color-based metrics derived from digital image analysis.

Observing Spring and Fall Phenology in a Deciduous Forest with Aerial Drone Imagery

PubMed Central

Richardson, Andrew D.

2017-01-01

Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems and controls the timing of key ecosystem functions including photosynthesis and transpiration. Aerial drone imagery and photogrammetric techniques promise to advance the study of phenology by enabling the creation of distortion-free orthomosaics of plant canopies at the landscape scale, but with branch-level image resolution. The main goal of this study is to determine the leaf life cycle events corresponding to phenological metrics derived from automated analyses based on color indices calculated from drone imagery. For an oak-dominated, temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern USA, we find that plant area index (PAI) correlates with a canopy greenness index during spring green-up, and a canopy redness index during autumn senescence. Additionally, greenness and redness metrics are significantly correlated with the timing of budburst and leaf expansion on individual trees in spring. However, we note that the specific color index for individual trees must be carefully chosen if new foliage in spring appears red, rather than green—which we observed for some oak trees. In autumn, both decreasing greenness and increasing redness correlate with leaf senescence. Maximum redness indicates the beginning of leaf fall, and the progression of leaf fall correlates with decreasing redness. We also find that cooler air temperature microclimates near a forest edge bordering a wetland advance the onset of senescence. These results demonstrate the use of drones for characterizing the organismic-level variability of phenology in a forested landscape and advance our understanding of which phenophase transitions correspond to color-based metrics derived from digital image analysis. PMID:29292742

Uprooting and trenching to control annosus root disease in a developed recreation site: 12- year results

Treesearch

John T. Kliejunas; William J. Otrosina; James R. Allison

2005-01-01

Six annosus (Heterobasidion annosum) root disease centers in a proposed campground on the north shore of Big Bear Lake in southern California were treated in 1989. Trees, stumps, and roots were removed in six disease centers, and in two cases, soil trenching was used to stop the progress of the disease. A total of 154 trees and 26 stumps were removed...

A Matrix Transition Model for an Uneven-Aged, Oak-Hickory Forest in the Missouri Ozark Highlands

Treesearch

James R. Lootens; David R. Larsen; Edward F. Loewenstein

1999-01-01

We present a matrix growth model for an uneven-aged, oak-hickory forest in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri. The model was developed to predict ingrowth, growth of surviving trees, and mortality by diameter class for a five-year period. Tree removal from management activities is accounted for in the model. We evaluated a progression of models from a static, fixed-...

A matrix transition model for an uneven-aged, oak-hickory forest in the Missouri ozark highlands

Treesearch

James R. Lootens; David R. Larsen; Edward F. Loewenstein

1999-01-01

We presented a matrix growth model for an uneven-aged, oak-hickory forest in the Ozark Highlands of Missouri. The model was developed to predict ingrowth, growth of surviving trees, and mortality by diameter class for a five-year period. Tree removal from management activities is accounted for in the model. We evaluated a progression of models from a static, fixed...

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of unknown parameters in hazardous materials transportation risk assessment.

PubMed

Pet-Armacost, J J; Sepulveda, J; Sakude, M

1999-12-01

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Origin and Possible Genetic Recombination of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus from the First Imported Case in China: Phylogenetics and Coalescence Analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanqun; Liu, Di; Shi, Weifeng; Lu, Roujian; Wang, Wenling; Zhao, Yanjie; Deng, Yao; Zhou, Weimin; Ren, Hongguang; Wu, Jun; Wang, Yu; Wu, Guizhen

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes a severe acute respiratory tract infection with a high fatality rate in humans. Coronaviruses are capable of infecting multiple species and can evolve rapidly through recombination events. Here, we report the complete genomic sequence analysis of a MERS-CoV strain imported to China from South Korea. The imported virus, provisionally named ChinaGD01, belongs to group 3 in clade B in the whole-genome phylogenetic tree and also has a similar tree topology structure in the open reading frame 1a and -b (ORF1ab) gene segment but clusters with group 5 of clade B in the tree constructed using the S gene. Genetic recombination analysis and lineage-specific single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) comparison suggest that the imported virus is a recombinant comprising group 3 and group 5 elements. The time-resolved phylogenetic estimation indicates that the recombination event likely occurred in the second half of 2014. Genetic recombination events between group 3 and group 5 of clade B may have implications for the transmissibility of the virus. PMID:26350969

Sexually mature transgenic American chestnut trees via embryogenic suspension-based transformation.

PubMed

Andrade, Gisele M; Nairn, Campbell J; Le, Huong T; Merkle, Scott A

2009-09-01

The availability of a system for direct transfer of anti-fungal candidate genes into American chestnut (Castanea dentata), devastated by a fungal blight in the last century, would offer an alternative or supplemental approach to conventional breeding for production of chestnut trees resistant to the blight fungus and other pathogens. By taking advantage of the strong ability of embryogenic American chestnut cultures to proliferate in suspension, a high-throughput Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation protocol for stable integration of foreign genes into the tree was established. Proembryogenic masses (PEMs) were co-cultivated with A. tumefaciens strain AGL1 harboring the plasmid pCAMBIA 2301, followed by stringent selection with 50 or 100 mg/l Geneticin. A protocol employing size-fractionation to enrich for small PEMs to use as target material and selection in suspension culture was applied to rapidly produce transgenic events with an average efficiency of four independent transformation events per 50 mg of target tissue and minimal escapes. Mature somatic embryos, representing 18 transgenic events and derived from multiple American chestnut target genotypes, were germinated and over 100 transgenic somatic seedlings were produced and acclimatized to greenhouse conditions. Multiple vigorous transgenic somatic seedlings produced functional staminate flowers within 3 years following regeneration.

Glaucoma progression detection: agreement, sensitivity, and specificity of expert visual field evaluation, event analysis, and trend analysis.

PubMed

Antón, Alfonso; Pazos, Marta; Martín, Belén; Navero, José Manuel; Ayala, Miriam Eleonora; Castany, Marta; Martínez, Patricia; Bardavío, Javier

2013-01-01

To assess sensitivity, specificity, and agreement among automated event analysis, automated trend analysis, and expert evaluation to detect glaucoma progression. This was a prospective study that included 37 eyes with a follow-up of 36 months. All had glaucomatous disks and fields and performed reliable visual fields every 6 months. Each series of fields was assessed with 3 different methods: subjective assessment by 2 independent teams of glaucoma experts, glaucoma/guided progression analysis (GPA) event analysis, and GPA (visual field index-based) trend analysis. Kappa agreement coefficient between methods and sensitivity and specificity for each method using expert opinion as gold standard were calculated. The incidence of glaucoma progression was 16% to 18% in 3 years but only 3 cases showed progression with all 3 methods. Kappa agreement coefficient was high (k=0.82) between subjective expert assessment and GPA event analysis, and only moderate between these two and GPA trend analysis (k=0.57). Sensitivity and specificity for GPA event and GPA trend analysis were 71% and 96%, and 57% and 93%, respectively. The 3 methods detected similar numbers of progressing cases. The GPA event analysis and expert subjective assessment showed high agreement between them and moderate agreement with GPA trend analysis. In a period of 3 years, both methods of GPA analysis offered high specificity, event analysis showed 83% sensitivity, and trend analysis had a 66% sensitivity.

An Improved Binary Differential Evolution Algorithm to Infer Tumor Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Liang, Ying; Liao, Bo; Zhu, Wen

2017-01-01

Tumourigenesis is a mutation accumulation process, which is likely to start with a mutated founder cell. The evolutionary nature of tumor development makes phylogenetic models suitable for inferring tumor evolution through genetic variation data. Copy number variation (CNV) is the major genetic marker of the genome with more genes, disease loci, and functional elements involved. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) accurately measures multiple gene copy number of hundreds of single cells. We propose an improved binary differential evolution algorithm, BDEP, to infer tumor phylogenetic tree based on FISH platform. The topology analysis of tumor progression tree shows that the pathway of tumor subcell expansion varies greatly during different stages of tumor formation. And the classification experiment shows that tree-based features are better than data-based features in distinguishing tumor. The constructed phylogenetic trees have great performance in characterizing tumor development process, which outperforms other similar algorithms.

The challenge of tree height in Eucalyptus regnans: when xylem tapering overcomes hydraulic resistance.

PubMed

Petit, Giai; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Anfodillo, Tommaso; Adams, Mark A

2010-09-01

*Recent research suggests that increasing conduit tapering progressively reduces hydraulic constraints caused by tree height. Here, we tested this hypothesis using the tallest hardwood species, Eucalyptus regnans. *Vertical profiles of conduit dimensions and vessel density were measured for three mature trees of height 47, 51 and 63 m. *Mean hydraulic diameter (Dh) increased rapidly from the tree apex to the point of crown insertion, with the greatest degree of tapering yet reported (b > 0.33). Conduit tapering was such that most of the total resistance was found close to the apex (82-93% within the first 1 m of stem) and the path length effect was reduced by a factor of 2000. Vessel density (VD) declined from the apex to the base of each tree, with scaling parameters being similar for all trees (a = 4.6; b = -0.5). *Eucalyptus regnans has evolved a novel xylem design that ensures a high hydraulic efficiency. This feature enables the species to grow quickly to heights of 50-60 m, beyond the maximum height of most other hardwood trees.

Paleoecological insights on fixed tree island development in the Florida Everglades: I. environmental controls: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, Debra A.; Murray, James B.; Holmes, Charles W.; Korvela, Michael S.; Mason, Daniel; Orem, William H.; Towles, D. Timothy; Sklar, Fred H.; van der Valk, A.

2002-01-01

Palynological and geochemical analyses of sediment cores collected on two tree islands in the Florida Everglades indicate long-term hydrologic and chemical differences between tree islands and surrounding marshes and sloughs. Gumbo Limbo and Nuthouse tree islands are elongate, teardrop-shaped islands in Water Conservation Area 3B. Prior to tree island formation at both sites, pollen records indicate that sites on modern tree island heads were covered with sawgrass marshes with abundant weedy annuals. Such vegetation is characteristic of moderate water depths and hydroperiods with frequent droughts or disturbances. Contemporaneously deposited sediments on tree island tails indicate progressively deeper water conditions with increasing distance from the head; wetlands surrounding tree islands were covered by sloughs with deep water and long hydroperiods. Tree island formation occurred at about 1200 BC on Gumbo Limbo Island, with mature tree island vegetation established by about 800 AD. On Nuthouse Island, tree island formation occurred around 300 AD, shifting to mature tree island vegetation around 1400 AD. Thus, tree island formation began on these islands between 3.2 Ka and 1.7 Ka. Maturation of tree islands took between 1,000 and 2,000 years, and vegetation on these tree islands has been relatively stable for the last 600–1,200 years. Phosphorus levelson tree island heads have been extremely high (approximately six times greaterthan baseline levels in marshes) throughout the history of the sites, and phosphorus content in tree island tails began increasing when tree island formation occurred. Elevated phosphorus content may reflect the long-termpresence of wading birds at these sites and provide a proxy for reconstructing the historic distribution of wading bird populations.

Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees

PubMed Central

Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

2016-01-01

Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted. PMID:27069397

Phylogenomics with paralogs

PubMed Central

Hellmuth, Marc; Wieseke, Nicolas; Lechner, Marcus; Lenhof, Hans-Peter; Middendorf, Martin; Stadler, Peter F.

2015-01-01

Phylogenomics heavily relies on well-curated sequence data sets that comprise, for each gene, exclusively 1:1 orthologos. Paralogs are treated as a dangerous nuisance that has to be detected and removed. We show here that this severe restriction of the data sets is not necessary. Building upon recent advances in mathematical phylogenetics, we demonstrate that gene duplications convey meaningful phylogenetic information and allow the inference of plausible phylogenetic trees, provided orthologs and paralogs can be distinguished with a degree of certainty. Starting from tree-free estimates of orthology, cograph editing can sufficiently reduce the noise to find correct event-annotated gene trees. The information of gene trees can then directly be translated into constraints on the species trees. Although the resolution is very poor for individual gene families, we show that genome-wide data sets are sufficient to generate fully resolved phylogenetic trees, even in the presence of horizontal gene transfer. PMID:25646426

Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees.

PubMed

Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

2016-01-01

Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted.

Higher-Order Corrections to Timelike Jets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giele, W.T.; /Fermilab; Kosower, D.A.

2011-02-01

We present a simple formalism for the evolution of timelike jets in which tree-level matrix element corrections can be systematically incorporated, up to arbitrary parton multiplicities and over all of phase space, in a way that exponentiates the matching corrections. The scheme is cast as a shower Markov chain which generates one single unweighted event sample, that can be passed to standard hadronization models. Remaining perturbative uncertainties are estimated by providing several alternative weight sets for the same events, at a relatively modest additional overhead. As an explicit example, we consider Z {yields} q{bar q} evolution with unpolarized, massless quarksmore » and include several formally subleading improvements as well as matching to tree-level matrix elements through {alpha}{sub s}{sup 4}. The resulting algorithm is implemented in the publicly available VINCIA plugin to the PYTHIA8 event generator.« less

Logic flowgraph methodology - A tool for modeling embedded systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muthukumar, C. T.; Guarro, S. B.; Apostolakis, G. E.

1991-01-01

The logic flowgraph methodology (LFM), a method for modeling hardware in terms of its process parameters, has been extended to form an analytical tool for the analysis of integrated (hardware/software) embedded systems. In the software part of a given embedded system model, timing and the control flow among different software components are modeled by augmenting LFM with modified Petrinet structures. The objective of the use of such an augmented LFM model is to uncover possible errors and the potential for unanticipated software/hardware interactions. This is done by backtracking through the augmented LFM mode according to established procedures which allow the semiautomated construction of fault trees for any chosen state of the embedded system (top event). These fault trees, in turn, produce the possible combinations of lower-level states (events) that may lead to the top event.

Decadal-scale progression of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events - Are warmings at the end of Heinrich-Stadials different from others?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erhardt, T.; Capron, E.; Rasmussen, S.; Schuepbach, S.; Bigler, M.; Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

During the last glacial period proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) events. Marine proxy records from the Atlantic also reveal, that some of the warming events where preceded by large ice rafting events, referred to as Heinrich events. Different mechanisms have been proposed, that can produce DO-like warming in model experiments, however the progression and plausible trigger of the events and their possible interplay with the Heinrich events is still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. We use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt and terrestrial aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from two Greenland deep ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxy records from one of the cores to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the individual warming events. The timing differences are then used to explore whether the DO warming events that terminate Heinrich-Stadials progressed differently in comparison to those after Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Our analysis indicates no difference in the progression of the warming terminating Heinrich-Stadials and Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Combining the evidence from all warming events in the period, our analysis shows a consistent lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature by approximately one decade. This implies that both the moisture transport to Greenland and the intensity of the Asian winter monsoon changed before the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic was reduced, rendering a collapse of the sea-ice cover as a trigger for the DO events unlikely.

Hurricane impacts on forest resources in the Eastern United States: a post-sandy assessment

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Susan J. Crocker; Randall S. Morin; Brian F. Walters

2015-01-01

Extreme weather events play a role in shaping the composition and structure of forests. Responding to and mitigating a storm event in a forested environment requires information about the location and severity of tree damage. However, this information can be difficult to obtain immediately following an event. Post-storm assessments using regularly collected forest...

Pareto-optimal phylogenetic tree reconciliation

PubMed Central

Libeskind-Hadas, Ran; Wu, Yi-Chieh; Bansal, Mukul S.; Kellis, Manolis

2014-01-01

Motivation: Phylogenetic tree reconciliation is a widely used method for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of gene families and species, hosts and parasites and other dependent pairs of entities. Reconciliation is typically performed using maximum parsimony, in which each evolutionary event type is assigned a cost and the objective is to find a reconciliation of minimum total cost. It is generally understood that reconciliations are sensitive to event costs, but little is understood about the relationship between event costs and solutions. Moreover, choosing appropriate event costs is a notoriously difficult problem. Results: We address this problem by giving an efficient algorithm for computing Pareto-optimal sets of reconciliations, thus providing the first systematic method for understanding the relationship between event costs and reconciliations. This, in turn, results in new techniques for computing event support values and, for cophylogenetic analyses, performing robust statistical tests. We provide new software tools and demonstrate their use on a number of datasets from evolutionary genomic and cophylogenetic studies. Availability and implementation: Our Python tools are freely available at www.cs.hmc.edu/∼hadas/xscape. Contact: mukul@engr.uconn.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24932009

Tree Circumference Dynamics in Four Forests Characterized Using Automated Dendrometer Bands

PubMed Central

McMahon, Sean M.; Detto, Matteo; Lutz, James A.; Davies, Stuart J.; Chang-Yang, Chia-Hao; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.

2016-01-01

Stem diameter is one of the most commonly measured attributes of trees, forming the foundation of forest censuses and monitoring. Changes in tree stem circumference include both irreversible woody stem growth and reversible circumference changes related to water status, yet these fine-scale dynamics are rarely leveraged to understand forest ecophysiology and typically ignored in plot- or stand-scale estimates of tree growth and forest productivity. Here, we deployed automated dendrometer bands on 12–40 trees at four different forested sites—two temperate broadleaf deciduous, one temperate conifer, and one tropical broadleaf semi-deciduous—to understand how tree circumference varies on time scales of hours to months, how these dynamics relate to environmental conditions, and whether the structure of these variations might introduce substantive error into estimates of woody growth. Diurnal stem circumference dynamics measured over the bark commonly—but not consistently—exhibited daytime shrinkage attributable to transpiration-driven changes in stem water storage. The amplitude of this shrinkage was significantly correlated with climatic variables (daily temperature range, vapor pressure deficit, and radiation), sap flow and evapotranspiration. Diurnal variations were typically <0.5 mm circumference in amplitude and unlikely to be of concern to most studies of tree growth. Over time scales of multiple days, the bands captured circumference increases in response to rain events, likely driven by combinations of increased stem water storage and bark hydration. Particularly at the tropical site, these rain responses could be quite substantial, ranging up to 1.5 mm circumference expansion within 48 hours following a rain event. We conclude that over-bark measurements of stem circumference change sometimes correlate with but have limited potential for directly estimating daily transpiration, but that they can be valuable on time scales of days to weeks for characterizing changes in stem growth and hydration. PMID:28030646

Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) Marine Safety Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

calculation of the rate of loss events and the associated consequences. Further, the selected tool supports a clear understanding of the drivers of failures...spreadsheet software. The event tree has a series of events stated in a success mode, or simply as the occurrence of a phenomenological condition. The...Public | December 2013 of a “transit” (when applicable). As subsequent events occur, there is a branch point, one branch representing success and the

Drought-related tree mortality in drought-resistant semi-arid Aleppo pine forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preisler, Yakir; Grünzweig, José M.; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatyn, Shani; Yakir, Dan

2014-05-01

The frequency and intensity of drought events are expected to increase as part of global climate change. In fact, drought related tree mortality had become a widespread phenomenon in forests around the globe in the past decades. This study was conducted at the Yatir FLUXNET site, located in a 45 years old Pinus halepensis dominated forest that successfully sustained low mean annual precipitation (276mm) and extended seasonal droughts (up to 340 days between rain events). However, five recent non-consecutive drought years led to enhanced tree mortality in 2010 (5-10% of the forest population, which was not observed hitherto). The Tree mortality was characterized by patchiness, showing forest zones with either >80% mortality or no mortality at all. Areas of healthy trees were associated with deeper root distribution and increased stoniness (soil pockets & cracks). To help identify possible causes of the increased mortality and its patterns, four tree stress levels were identified based on visual appearance, and studied in more detail. This included examining from spring 2011 to summer 2013 the local trees density, root distribution, annual growth rings, needle length and chlorophyll content, rates of leaf gas exchange, and branch predawn water potential. Tree phenotypic stress level correlated with the leaf predawn water potential (-1.8 and -3.0 in healthy and stressed trees, respectively), which likely reflected tree-scale water availability. These below ground characteristics were also associated, in turn, with higher rate of assimilation (3.5 and 0.8 μmol CO2 m-2s1 in healthy and stress trees, respectively), longer needles (8.2cm and 3.4 cm in healthy and stressed trees, respectively). Annual ring widths showed differences between stress classes, with stressed trees showing 30% narrower rings on average than unstressed trees. Notably, decline in annual ring widths could be identified in currently dead or severely stressed trees 15-20 years prior to mortality or tree degradation. These results indicate, together with earlier results that showed a virtually close hydrological cycle (ET~P) for this forest, that mortality was dominated by conditions at the level of the single-tree or small group of trees. The dependency on belowground water availability of individual trees emphasizes the difficulties in drawing process-based conclusions from the mean response at the forest stand level and, alternatively, the need to investigate drought stress and survival processes at the patch scale. The capabilities of early identification, and of grading the stress level with simple tools, such as tree-rings and pre-dawn water potential, can facilitate partitioning forest stands into zones more relevant to the study and management of drought related mortality. Ultimately, an integrated approach considering both the stand and patch scales and which utilizes methodologies such as used in this study will be essential to reliably predict ecosystem response to changes in precipitation regimes and climate.

Ecosystem transformation by emerging infectious disease: loss of large tanoak from California forests

Treesearch

Richard C. Cobb; Joao A.N. Filipe; Ross K. Meentemeyer; Christopher A. Gilligan; David M. Rizzo

2012-01-01

1. Few pathogens are the sole or primary cause of species extinctions, but forest disease has caused spectacular declines in North American overstorey trees and restructured forest ecosystems at large spatial scales over the past 100 years. These events threaten biodiversity associated with impacted host trees and other resources valued by human societies even when...

Quantifying the legacy of foliar winter injury on woody aboveground carbon sequestration of red spruce trees

Treesearch

Alexandra M. Kosiba; Paul G. Schaberg; Gary J. Hawley; Christopher F. Hansen

2013-01-01

Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) decline has been quantitatively attributed to foliar winter injury caused by freezing damage. The results of this injury include foliar mortality, crown deterioration, and negative carbon (C) balances that can lead to tree health declines and eventual mortality. In 2003, a severe region-wide event damaged over 90% of...

Seedling establishment in a masting desert shrub parallels the pattern for forest trees

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer; Burton K. Pendleton

2015-01-01

The masting phenomenon along with its accompanying suite of seedling adaptive traits has been well studied in forest trees but has rarely been examined in desert shrubs. Blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) is a regionally dominant North American desert shrub whose seeds are produced in mast events and scatter-hoarded by rodents. We followed the fate of seedlings in...

Dendrogeochronologic and Anatomic Analysis of Excavated Plains Cottonwoods Determine Overbank Sedimentation Rates and Historical Channel Positions Along the Interior of a Migrating Meander Bend, Powder River, Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, T. L.; Pizzuto, J. E.; Schook, D. M.; Hasse, T. R.; Affinito, R. A.

2017-12-01

Dendrochronological dating of buried trees precisely determines the germination year and identifies the stratigraphic context of germination for the trees. This recently developed application of dendrochronology provides accurate time-averaged sedimentation rates of overbank deposition along floodplains and can be used to identify burial events. Previous studies have demonstrated that tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) and sandbar willow (Salix exigua) develop anatomical changes within the tree rings (increased vessel size and decreased ring widths) on burial, but observations of plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides ssp. monilifera) are lacking. In September 2016 and June 2017, five buried plains cottonwoods were excavated along a single transect of the interior of a meander bend of the Powder River, Montana. Sediment samples were obtained near each tree for 210Pb and 137Cs dating, which will allow for comparison between dendrochronological and isotopic dating methods. The plains cottonwood samples collected exhibit anatomical changes associated with burial events that are observed in other species. All trees germinated at the boundary between thinly bedded fine sand and mud and coarse sand underlain by sand and gravel, indicating plains cottonwoods germinate on top of point bars prior to overbank deposition. The precise germination age and depth provide elevations and minimum age constraints for the point bar deposits and maximum ages for the overlying sediment, helping constrain past channel positions and overbank deposition rates. Germination years of the excavated trees, estimated from cores taken 1.5 m above ground level, range from 2014 to 1862. Accurate establishment years determined by cross-dating the buried section of the tree can add an additional 10 years to the cored age. The sedimentation rate and accumulation thickness varied with tree age. The germination year, total sediment accumulation, and average sedimentation rate at the five sampled trees is: 2011, 35 cm, 7.0 cm/year; 1973, 77 cm, 1.8 cm/year; 1962, 140 cm, 2.6 cm/year; 1960, 123 cm, 2.2 cm/year; and 1862, 112 cm, 0.7 cm/year. These sedimentation rates indicate that the cumulative sedimentation decreases as a power law with increasing tree age.

Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2018-03-01

The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

2015-12-01

Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

Tree shadow patterns and illumination measurements with clearcut strips and irregular openings in a true fir forest

Treesearch

Donald T. Gordon

1968-01-01

Daily progression of shadows cast by red and white fir trees in forest stand openings is illustrated by vertical aerial photographs made on the summer solstice at 2-hour intervals from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. The aerial photos show shade patterns in three irregularly - shaped, natural stand openings and two different widths (3-chains and 5-chains) of clearcut strips....

[Cedrela odorata (Meliaceae) potential for dendrochronological studies in the Selva Central of Perú].

PubMed

Pereyra Espinoza, Manuel Jesús; Inga Guillen, Gaby Janet; Santos Morales, Mariano; Arisméndiz Rodríguez, Rodolfo

2014-06-01

Despite the progress made during the past 20 years, searching dendrochronological potential in tropical and subtropical tree species, tropical dendrochronology, is still in a development stage. The aim of this research was to determine the potential of C. odorata for dendrochronological studies in the Selva Central of Perú. The tree-ring anatomical characteristics were carefully examined and we were able to develop a 215 year (1795-2 009) tree-ring chronology and correlate it with precipitation records. The tree-ring chronology was developed based on 47 series of 27 trees. Tree rings are clearly delimited by large pore diameters in earlywood and small ones in latewood associated with marginal and paratracheal parenchyma. The tree-ring chronology was related to precipitation records from Satipo and significant correlations were found with the previous rainy season and late dry season of the current growth period. Moreover, we found close relationship between tree growth and total precipitations of the hydrological period (December to September) for the interval 1990-2009. These results demonstrate the influence of rainfall at different stages of C. odorata radial growth. The good discrimination of annual rings, strong relationship with precipitation, the wide range and longevity of trees (200 years) make C. odorata a very promising species for dendrochronological studies in tropical and subtropical forest of America.

Photoperiodic growth control in perennial trees.

PubMed

Azeez, Abdul; Sane, Aniruddha P

2015-01-01

Plants have to cope with changing seasons and adverse environmental conditions. Being sessile, plants have developed elaborate mechanisms for their survival that allow them to sense and adapt to the environment and reproduce successfully. A major adaptive trait for the survival of trees of temperate and boreal forests is the induction of growth cessation in anticipation of winters. In the last few years enormous progress has been made to elucidate the molecular mechanisms underlying SDs induced growth cessation in model perennial tree hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × P. tremuloides). In this review we discuss the molecular mechanism underlying photoperiodic control of growth cessation and adaptive responses.

Analysis of GMO Plum Plant Culture in System Operations Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercado, Dianne

2017-01-01

GMO plum trees are being evaluated at the Kennedy Space Center as a possible candidate for future space crops. Previously conducted horticultural testing compared the performance of several plum genotypes in controlled environment chambers, resulting in a down-selection to the NASA-11 genotype. Precursory studies determined the water use requirements to sustain the plants as well as the feasibility of grafting non-GMO plum scions onto GMO plum rootstocks of NASA-5, NASA-10, and NASA-11 genotypes. This study follows the growth and horticultural progress of plum trees and in-vitro cultures from August 2017 to November 2017, and provides supplemental support for future GMO plum studies. The presence of Hurricane Irma in early September 2017 resulted in the plants undergoing material deterioration from major changes to their overall horticultural progress.

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Fiscal Year 1978 Research & Development Program. Statement by Dr. George H. Heilmeier, Director Before the Subcommittee on Research & Development of Senate Armed Services Committee

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-02-01

CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------- -I A. DARPA PROGRAM PLANS AND PROGRESS ------------------- 1-6 1. High Energy...beyond. In brief, we have followed our long-range plan and have impressive progress to report. A. DARPA Program Plans and Progress 1. High Energy Lasers...stimulate growth of technological "saplings" that have proven promising; and (3) harvest those technologies that have become mature "trees." These three

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambert, Howard E.

1975-10-09

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut setsmore » according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure.« less

Attribution of Disturbances Causing Tree Mortality for the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Xu, C.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

Broad-scale tree mortality has been frequently reported and documented to increase with warming climate and human activities. However, there is so far no general method to quantify the relative contributions of different disturbances on observed broad-scale tree mortality. In this study, we presented a framework to investigate the contribution of various disturbances causing tree mortality for 2000-2014 in the continental US. Our work is based on the high-resolution forest-loss data developed by Hansen et al. (2013). Firstly, fire-driven mortality was determined using the data from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Secondly, a landscape-pattern-recognition approach focusing on the differences of boundary complexity caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances was developed to attribute harvest-driven mortality patches. Then, a drought threshold was determined through conducting an intensive literature survey for attribution of drought-driven mortality. Our results showed that we can correctly attribute 85% harvest-driven mortality as compared to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Based on Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), our literature survey suggests that most mortality events happened at extreme drought (37.7%), then severe (31.4%) and moderate (23.4%) drought. In total, 92.6% of drought-induced mortality events observed during 2000-2014 occurred at drought conditions of moderate or worse with corresponding ESI values ranging from -0.9 -2.49. Therefore, -0.9 will be used as the threshold to attribute drought-driven tree mortality. Overall, these results imply a great potential for using these methods to identify and attribute disturbances driving tree death at broad spatial scales.

Spatial Structure of Evolutionary Models of Dialects in Contact

PubMed Central

Murawaki, Yugo

2015-01-01

Phylogenetic models, originally developed to demonstrate evolutionary biology, have been applied to a wide range of cultural data including natural language lexicons, manuscripts, folktales, material cultures, and religions. A fundamental question regarding the application of phylogenetic inference is whether trees are an appropriate approximation of cultural evolutionary history. Their validity in cultural applications has been scrutinized, particularly with respect to the lexicons of dialects in contact. Phylogenetic models organize evolutionary data into a series of branching events through time. However, branching events are typically not included in dialectological studies to interpret the distributions of lexical terms. Instead, dialectologists have offered spatial interpretations to represent lexical data. For example, new lexical items that emerge in a politico-cultural center are likely to spread to peripheries, but not vice versa. To explore the question of the tree model’s validity, we present a simple simulation model in which dialects form a spatial network and share lexical items through contact rather than through common ancestors. We input several network topologies to the model to generate synthetic data. We then analyze the synthesized data using conventional phylogenetic techniques. We found that a group of dialects can be considered tree-like even if it has not evolved in a temporally tree-like manner but has a temporally invariant, spatially tree-like structure. In addition, the simulation experiments appear to reproduce unnatural results observed in reconstructed trees for real data. These results motivate further investigation into the spatial structure of the evolutionary history of dialect lexicons as well as other cultural characteristics. PMID:26221958

Tree-ring isotopes reveal drought sensitivity in trees killed by spruce beetle outbreaks in south-central Alaska.

PubMed

Csank, Adam Z; Miller, Amy E; Sherriff, Rosemary L; Berg, Edward E; Welker, Jeffrey M

2016-10-01

Increasing temperatures have resulted in reduced growth and increased tree mortality across large areas of western North American forests. We use tree-ring isotope chronologies (δ 13 C and δ 18 O) from live and dead trees from four locations in south-central Alaska, USA, to test whether white spruce trees killed by recent spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) outbreaks showed evidence of drought stress prior to death. Trees that were killed were more sensitive to spring/summer temperature and/or precipitation than trees that survived. At two of our sites, we found greater correlations between the δ 13 C and δ 18 O chronologies and spring/summer temperatures in dead trees than in live trees, suggesting that trees that are more sensitive to temperature-induced drought stress are more likely to be killed. At one site, the difference between δ 13 C in live and dead trees was related to winter/spring precipitation, with dead trees showing stronger correlations between δ 13 C and precipitation, again suggesting increased water stress in dead trees. At all sites where δ 18 O was measured, δ 18 O chronologies showed the greatest difference in climate response between live and dead groups, with δ 18 O in live trees correlating more strongly with late winter precipitation than dead trees. Our results indicate that sites where trees are already sensitive to warm or dry early growing-season conditions experienced the most beetle-kill, which has important implications for forecasting future mortality events in Alaska. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Using dendrochonology to crossdate year of death in trees: limitations with stressed trees in a diffuse mortality context. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angers, V. A.; Bergeron, Y.; Drapeau, P.

2013-12-01

Dendrochronological crossdating of dead trees is commonly used to reconstruct mortality patterns over time. This method assumes that the year of formation of the last growth ring corresponds to the year of the death of the tree. Trees experiencing important stress, such as defoliation, drought or senescence, may rely on very few resources to allocate to growth and may favour other vital physiological functions over growth. Even if the tree is still living, growth may thus be reduced or even supressed during a stressful event. When a tree dies following this event and that there is a lag between year of last ring production and year of actual death, crossdating underestimates the actual year of death. As ring formation is not uniform across the bole, growth may occur only in some parts of the tree and may be detectable only if multiple bole samples are analysed. In this study, we wanted to investigate how the growth patterns of dying trees influence estimation of year of death when crossdating. Our research questions were the following 1) Is there a difference (hereafter referred as 'lag') between the last year of growth ring formation in disc samples collected at different heights in dead trees? 2) If so, what is the range of magnitude of these lags? and 3) Is this magnitude range influenced by the causes of death? Sampled sites were located in northwestern Quebec (Canada), over an area overlapping the eastern mixedwood and coniferous boreal forests. Four tree species were examined: Trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). Trees that died following fire, self-thinning, defoliation and senescence were sampled. Two to three discs were collected on each dead tree (snags and logs) at different heights. Dendrochronological analyses were conducted to determine year of last growth ring production by crossdating. The more severe the disturbance, the narrower the lag between years of last ring production among samples collected in a given tree. In fire-induced death, lag was whether absent or very narrow, usually no more than one year. In defoliation-induced death, most lags were under two years. In competition-induced death, the vast majority of lags were shorter than 5 years. In old, senescent black spruce trees, lags were considerably longer as compared to other causes of death, exceeding 10 years in numerous cases. Based on these results, we suggest that investigators should consider collecting samples at different heights along the stem when reconstructing fine patterns of senescence-induced mortality using crossdating in order to avoid as much as possible bias due to variable growth in dying trees.

Deep Phylogeny—How a Tree Can Help Characterize Early Life on Earth

PubMed Central

Gaucher, Eric A.; Kratzer, James T.; Randall, Ryan N.

2010-01-01

The Darwinian concept of biological evolution assumes that life on Earth shares a common ancestor. The diversification of this common ancestor through speciation events and vertical transmission of genetic material implies that the classification of life can be illustrated in a tree-like manner, commonly referred to as the Tree of Life. This article describes features of the Tree of Life, such as how the tree has been both pruned and become bushier throughout the past century as our knowledge of biology has expanded. We present current views that the classification of life may be best illustrated as a ring or even a coral with tree-like characteristics. This article also discusses how the organization of the Tree of Life offers clues about ancient life on Earth. In particular, we focus on the environmental conditions and temperature history of Precambrian life and show how chemical, biological, and geological data can converge to better understand this history. “You know, a tree is a tree.  How many more do you need to look at?” –Ronald Reagan (Governor of California), quoted in the Sacramento Bee, opposing expansion of Redwood National Park, March 3, 1966 PMID:20182607

Do hummocks provide a physiological advantage to even the most flood tolerant of tidal freshwater trees?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duberstein, Jamie A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Conner, William H.; Bridges, William C.; Shelburne, Victor B.

2013-01-01

Hummock and hollow microtopography is pervasive in tidal freshwater swamps. Many tree species grow atop hummocks significantly more than in hollows, leading to the hypothesis that hummocks provide preferred locations for maximizing physiological proficiency of inhabiting trees that experience repeated flooding. We used thermal dissipation probes to measure the ecophysiological proficiency of a very flood-tolerant tree, Taxodium distichum, as manifested through in-situ changes in sapflow (a proxy for transpiration) in 11 trees on hummocks and 11 trees in hollows. Overall, sapflow increased significantly by 3.3 g H2O m−2 s−1 (11 %) in trees on both hummocks and hollows during flooding, contrary to our expectations. We found no significant differences in sapflow rates between T. distichum trees positioned on hummocks versus hollows in relation to discrete flood events. Coincidentally, hummock elevations were equivalent to the flood depths that promoted greatest physiological proficiency in T. distichum, suggesting a physiological role for the maintenance of hummock height in tidal swamps. While we reject our original hypotheses that flooding and positioning in hollows will reduce sapflow in T. distichum, this research reveals a potentially important feedback between hummock height, flood depth, and maximum tree physiological response.

Deep phylogeny--how a tree can help characterize early life on Earth.

PubMed

Gaucher, Eric A; Kratzer, James T; Randall, Ryan N

2010-01-01

The Darwinian concept of biological evolution assumes that life on Earth shares a common ancestor. The diversification of this common ancestor through speciation events and vertical transmission of genetic material implies that the classification of life can be illustrated in a tree-like manner, commonly referred to as the Tree of Life. This article describes features of the Tree of Life, such as how the tree has been both pruned and become bushier throughout the past century as our knowledge of biology has expanded. We present current views that the classification of life may be best illustrated as a ring or even a coral with tree-like characteristics. This article also discusses how the organization of the Tree of Life offers clues about ancient life on Earth. In particular, we focus on the environmental conditions and temperature history of Precambrian life and show how chemical, biological, and geological data can converge to better understand this history."You know, a tree is a tree. How many more do you need to look at?"--Ronald Reagan (Governor of California), quoted in the Sacramento Bee, opposing expansion of Redwood National Park, March 3, 1966.

Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Amy C.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.

2015-01-01

The frequency of severe droughts is increasing in many regions around the world as a result of climate change. Droughts alter the structure and function of forests. Site- and region-specific studies suggest that large trees, which play keystone roles in forests and can be disproportionately important to ecosystem carbon storage and hydrology, exhibit greater sensitivity to drought than small trees. Here, we synthesize data on tree growth and mortality collected during 40 drought events in forests worldwide to see whether this size-dependent sensitivity to drought holds more widely. We find that droughts consistently had a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of larger trees. Moreover, drought-related mortality increased with tree size in 65% of the droughts examined, especially when community-wide mortality was high or when bark beetles were present. The more pronounced drought sensitivity of larger trees could be underpinned by greater inherent vulnerability to hydraulic stress, the higher radiation and evaporative demand experienced by exposed crowns, and the tendency for bark beetles to preferentially attack larger trees. We suggest that future droughts will have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality of larger trees, potentially exacerbating feedbacks to climate change.

Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

Do isolated gallery-forest trees facilitate recruitment of forest seedlings and saplings in savannna?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azihou, Akomian Fortuné; Glèlè Kakaï, Romain; Sinsin, Brice

2013-11-01

Facilitation is an ecological process that allows some species to establish in environments they can hardly afford in the absence of the process. This study investigated if the subcanopy of gallery-forest trees isolated in savanna is suitable for the early recruitment of forest woody species. We measured tree crown area as well as the density of seedlings and saplings of gallery-forest tree species beneath isolated trees and in the savanna matrix along 50 transects of 5-km long and 600 m wide located along four gallery forests. We then tested the nurse-plant effect and Janzen-Connell hypothesis beneath isolated trees. We also examined the relationships between the crown area and the density of seedlings and saplings. Among the eight identified tree species isolated in savanna, only Daniellia oliveri and Khaya senegalensis showed nurse-plant effect and promoted a significant, yet low early recruitment with a seedling-to-sapling survival of 0.044 and 0.578, respectively. The suitability of the subcanopy of isolated trees decreased with the recruitment progression and Janzen-Connell effects were absent. Seedlings had neutral association with the crown area of isolated trees which shifted to positive at the sapling stage. The species of the isolated tree and the crown area explained less than 20% of total variance, indicating that other predictive factors are important in explaining the nurse-plant effect observed in this study.

Photoperiod as a proximate factor in control of seasonality in the subtropical male Tree Sparrow, Passer montanus

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Most species of birds exhibit well-defined seasonality in their various physiological and behavioral functions like reproduction, molt, bill color etc. such that they occur at the most appropriate time of the year. Day length has been shown to be a major source of temporal information regulating seasonal reproduction and associated events in a number of avian species. The present study aims to investigate the role of photoperiod in control of seasonal cycles in the subtropical male tree sparrow (Passer montanus) and to compare its responses at Shillong (Latitude 25°34'N, Longitude 91°53'E) with those exhibited by its conspecifics and related species at other latitudes. Results Initial experiment involving study of seasonal cycles revealed that the wild tree sparrows posses definite seasonal cycles of testicular volume, molt and bill color. These cycles were found remarkably linked to annual solar cycle suggesting the possibility of their photoperiodic control. To confirm this possibility in the next experiment, the photosensitive birds were exposed to three different light-dark regimes that were close to what they experience at this latitude: 9L/15D (close to shortest day length), 12L/12D (equinox day length) and 14L/10D (close to longest day length) for 18 months. Tree sparrows showed testicular growth followed by regression and development of photorefractoriness, molting and bill color changes only under long daily photoperiods (12 L and 14 L) but not under short daily photoperiod (9 L). Birds, under stimulatory photoperiods, did not show reinitiation of the above responses after the completion of initiation regression cycle even after their exposure to these photoperiods for 18 months. This precludes the possibility of circannual rhythm generation and suggests the involvement of photoperiodic mechanism in control of their seasonal cycles. Further, replacement of body and primary feathers progressed with gonadal regression only under long days suggesting that the two high energy demanding events of reproduction and molt are phased at two different times in the annual cycle of the bird and are photoperiodically regulated. Results of the final experiment involving exposure of photosensitive birds to a variety of photoperiodic treatments (9L/15D, 10L/14D, 11L/13D, 12L/12D, 14L/10D and 16L/8D) for 30 days suggested that the light falling for 11 h or more is important in inducing testicular growth and function in this species. Conclusion These results clearly indicate that despite of small photofluctuation, subtropical tree sparrows are capable of fine discrimination of photoperiodic information and use day length as a proximate environmental factor to time their seasonal responses similar to their conspecifics and related species at other latitudes suggesting the conservation of photoperiodic control mechanism in them. PMID:21223557

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Kay, Neil E; Hamblin, Terry J; Jelinek, Diane F; Dewald, Gordon W; Byrd, John C; Farag, Sherif; Lucas, Margaret; Lin, Thomas

2002-01-01

This update of early stage B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL) embraces current information on the diagnosis, biology, and intervention required to more fully develop algorithms for management of this disease. Emphasis on early stage is based on the rapid advancement in our understanding of the disease parameters and our increasing ability to predict for a given early stage patient whether there is a need for more aggressive management. In Section I, Dr. Terry Hamblin addresses the nature of the disease, accurate diagnostic procedures, evidence for an early "preclinical" phase, the use of newer prognostic features to distinguish who will be likely to progress or not, and whether it is best to watch or treat early stage disease. In Section II, Dr. Neil Kay and colleagues address the biologic aspects of the disease and how they may relate to disease progression. Review of the newer insights into gene expression, recurring genetic defects, role of cytokines/autocrine pathways, and the interaction of the CLL B cell with the microenvironment are emphasized. The relationship of these events to both trigger disease progression and as opportunities for future therapeutic intervention even in early stage disease is also considered. In Section III, Dr. John Byrd and colleagues review the historical and now current approaches to management of the previously untreated progressive B-CLL patient. They discuss what decision tree could be used in the initial decision to treat a given patient. The use of single agents versus newer combination approaches such as chemoimmunotherapy are discussed here. In addition, the place of marrow transplant and some of the newer antibodies available for treatment of B-CLL are considered. Finally, a challenge to utilize our growing knowledge of the biology of B-CLL in the early stage B-CLL is proffered.

Fault tree analysis: NiH2 aerospace cells for LEO mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Glenn C.; Rash, Donald E., Jr.

1992-01-01

The Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of several reliability analyses or assessments applied to battery cells to be utilized in typical Electric Power Subsystems for spacecraft in low Earth orbit missions. FTA is generally the process of reviewing and analytically examining a system or equipment in such a way as to emphasize the lower level fault occurrences which directly or indirectly contribute to the major fault or top level event. This qualitative FTA addresses the potential of occurrence for five specific top level events: hydrogen leakage through either discrete leakage paths or through pressure vessel rupture; and four distinct modes of performance degradation - high charge voltage, suppressed discharge voltage, loss of capacity, and high pressure.

Monitoring of environmental conditions in the Alaskan forests using ERS-1 SAR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, Eric; Way, Jobea; Mcdonald, Kyle; Viereck, Leslie; Adams, Phyllis

1992-01-01

Preliminary results from an analysis of the multitemporal radar backscatter signatures of tree species acquired by European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are presented. Significant changes in radar backscatter are detected. Correlation of these differences with ground truth observations indicate that these are due to changes in soil and liquid water content as a result of freeze/thaw events. C-band observations acquired by the NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory Airborne SAR (JPL AIRSAR) instrument demonstrate the potential of a C-band radar instrument to monitor drought/flood events. The potential of ERS-1 for monitoring phenologic changes in the forest and for classifying tree species is less promising.

Survival Outcomes and Effect of Early vs. Deferred cART Among HIV-Infected Patients Diagnosed at the Time of an AIDS-Defining Event: A Cohort Analysis

PubMed Central

Mussini, Cristina; Johnson, Margaret; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Antinori, Andrea; Gill, M. John; Sighinolfi, Laura; Uberti-Foppa, Caterina; Borghi, Vanni; Sabin, Caroline

2011-01-01

Objectives We analyzed clinical progression among persons diagnosed with HIV at the time of an AIDS-defining event, and assessed the impact on outcome of timing of combined antiretroviral treatment (cART). Methods Retrospective, European and Canadian multicohort study.. Patients were diagnosed with HIV from 1997–2004 and had clinical AIDS from 30 days before to 14 days after diagnosis. Clinical progression (new AIDS event, death) was described using Kaplan-Meier analysis stratifying by type of AIDS event. Factors associated with progression were identified with multivariable Cox regression. Progression rates were compared between those starting early (<30 days after AIDS event) or deferred (30–270 days after AIDS event) cART. Results The median (interquartile range) CD4 count and viral load (VL) at diagnosis of the 584 patients were 42 (16, 119) cells/µL and 5.2 (4.5, 5.7) log10 copies/mL. Clinical progression was observed in 165 (28.3%) patients. Older age, a higher VL at diagnosis, and a diagnosis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (vs. other AIDS events) were independently associated with disease progression. Of 366 patients with an opportunistic infection, 178 (48.6%) received early cART. There was no significant difference in clinical progression between those initiating cART early and those deferring treatment (adjusted hazard ratio 1.32 [95% confidence interval 0.87, 2.00], p = 0.20). Conclusions Older patients and patients with high VL or NHL at diagnosis had a worse outcome. Our data suggest that earlier initiation of cART may be beneficial among HIV-infected patients diagnosed with clinical AIDS in our setting. PMID:22043301

Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events.

PubMed

Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2013-06-01

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the top event (TE) of a fault tree (FT): "objective" dependence between the (random) occurrences of different basic events (BEs) in the FT and "state-of-knowledge" (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this article, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well-known Frèchet bounds and the distribution envelope determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present). © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

Putative recombination events and evolutionary history of five economically important viruses of fruit trees based on coat protein-encoding gene sequence analysis.

PubMed

Boulila, Moncef

2010-06-01

To enhance the knowledge of recombination as an evolutionary process, 267 accessions retrieved from GenBank were investigated, all belonging to five economically important viruses infecting fruit crops (Plum pox, Apple chlorotic leaf spot, Apple mosaic, Prune dwarf, and Prunus necrotic ringspot viruses). Putative recombinational events were detected in the coat protein (CP)-encoding gene using RECCO and RDP version 3.31beta algorithms. Based on RECCO results, all five viruses were shown to contain potential recombination signals in the CP gene. Reconstructed trees with modified topologies were proposed. Furthermore, RECCO performed better than the RDP package in detecting recombination events and exhibiting their evolution rate along the sequences of the five viruses. RDP, however, provided the possible major and minor parents of the recombinants. Thus, the two methods should be considered complementary.

You're a "What"? Santa Claus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Royster, Sara

2013-01-01

Professional Santas entertain children and adults during the holiday season at all types of events. They work at shopping malls or stores; entertain crowds at parades and tree lightings; and make appearances at holiday parties, charity events, and people's homes. Most Santas work during the Christmas holiday season, which usually lasts from late…

Temporal progression of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' infection in citrus and acquisition efficiency by Diaphorina citri.

PubMed

Coletta-Filho, Helvecio D; Daugherty, Matthew P; Ferreira, Cléderson; Lopes, João R S

2014-04-01

Over the last decade, the plant disease huanglongbing (HLB) has emerged as a primary threat to citrus production worldwide. HLB is associated with infection by phloem-limited bacteria ('Candidatus Liberibacter' spp.) that are transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri. Transmission efficiency varies with vector-related aspects (e.g., developmental stage and feeding periods) but there is no information on the effects of host-pathogen interactions. Here, acquisition efficiency of 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus' by D. citri was evaluated in relation to temporal progression of infection and pathogen titer in citrus. We graft inoculated sweet orange trees with 'Ca. L. asiaticus'; then, at different times after inoculation, we inspected plants for HLB symptoms, measured bacterial infection levels (i.e., titer or concentration) in plants, and measured acquisition by psyllid adults that were confined on the trees. Plant infection levels increased rapidly over time, saturating at uniformly high levels (≈10(8) copy number of 16S ribosomal DNA/g of plant tissue) near 200 days after inoculation-the same time at which all infected trees first showed disease symptoms. Pathogen acquisition by vectors was positively associated with plant infection level and time since inoculation, with acquisition occurring as early as the first measurement, at 60 days after inoculation. These results suggest that there is ample potential for psyllids to acquire the pathogen from trees during the asymptomatic phase of infection. If so, this could limit the effectiveness of tree rouging as a disease management tool and would likely explain the rapid spread observed for this disease in the field.

Green tree frog (Hyla cinerea) and ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) mortality attributed to inland brevetoxin transportation at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buttke, Danielle E.; Walker, Alicia; Huang, I-Shuo; Flewelling, Leanne; Lankton, Julia S.; Ballmann, Anne E.; Clapp, Travis; Lindsay, James; Zimba, Paul V.

2018-01-01

On 16 September 2015, a red tide (Karenia brevis) bloom impacted coastal areas of Padre Island National Seashore Park. Two days later and about 0.9 km inland, 30–40 adult green tree frogs (Hyla cinerea) were found dead after displaying tremors, weakness, labored breathing, and other signs of neurologic impairment. A rainstorm, accompanied by high winds, rough surf, and high tides, which could have aerosolized brevetoxin, occurred on the morning of the mortality event. Frog carcasses were healthy but contained significant brevetoxin in tissues. Tissue brevetoxin was also found in two dead or dying spotted ground squirrels (Xerospermophilus spilosoma) and a coyote (Canis latrans). Rainwater collected from the location of the mortality event contained brevetoxin. Mortality of green tree frog and ground squirrel mortality has not been previously attributed to brevetoxin exposure and such mortality suggested that inland toxin transport, possibly through aerosols, rainfall, or insects, may have important implications for coastal species.

Three-year decline of magmatic CO2 emissions from soils of a Mammoth Mountain tree kill: Horseshoe Lake, CA, 1995-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerlach, T.M.; Doukas, M.P.; McGee, K.A.; Kessler, R.

1998-01-01

We used the closed chamber method to measure soil CO2 efflux over a three-year period at the Horseshoe Lake tree kill (HLTK) - the largest tree kill on Mammoth Mountain in central eastern California. Efflux contour maps show a significant decline in the areas and rates of CO2 emission from 1995 to 1997. The emission rate fell from 350 t d-1 (metric tons per day) in 1995 to 130 t d-1 in 1997. The trend suggests a return to background soil CO2 efflux levels by early to mid 1999 and may reflect exhaustion of CO2 in a deep reservoir of accumulated gas and/or mechanical closure or sealing of fault conduits transmitting gas to the surface. However, emissions rose to 220 t d-1 on 23 September 1997 at the onset of a degassing event that lasted until 5 December 1997. Recent reservoir recharge and/or extension-enhanced gas flow may have caused the degassing event.

Native Americans, regional drought and tree Island evolution in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernhardt, C.

2011-01-01

This study uses palynologic data to determine the effects of regional climate variability and human activity on the formation and development of tree islands during the last ~4000 years. Although prolonged periods of aridity have been invoked as one mechanism for their formation, Native American land use has also been hypothesized as a driver of tree island development. Using pollen assemblages from head and near tail sediments collected on two tree islands and documented archeological data, the relative roles of Native Americans, climate variability, and recent water-management practices in forming and structuring Everglades tree islands are examined. The timing of changes recorded in the pollen record indicates that tree islands developed from sawgrass marshes ~3800 cal. yr BP, prior to human occupation. Major tree island expansion, recorded near tail sediments, occurred ~1000 years after initial tree island formation. Comparison of the timing of pollen assemblages with other proxy records indicates that tree island expansion is related to regional and global aridity correlated with southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Local fire associated with droughts may also have influenced tree island expansion. This work suggests that Native American occupation did not significantly influence tree island formation and that the most important factors governing tree island expansion are extreme hydrologic events due to droughts and intense twentieth century water management.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Hierarchical Task Network Prototyping In Unity3d

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

visually debug. Here we present a solution for prototyping HTNs by extending an existing commercial implementation of Behavior Trees within the Unity3D game ...HTN, dynamic behaviors, behavior prototyping, agent-based simulation, entity-level combat model, game engine, discrete event simulation, virtual...commercial implementation of Behavior Trees within the Unity3D game engine prior to building the HTN in COMBATXXI. Existing HTNs were emulated within

Vegetation and soil effects from prescribed, wild, and combined fire events along a ponderosa pine and grassland mosaic

Treesearch

Theresa Jain; Molly Juillerat; Jonathan Sandquist; Mike Ford; Brad Sauer; Robert Mitchell; Scott McAvoy; Justin Hanley; Jon David

2007-01-01

We describe the efficacy of prescribed fires after two wildfires burned through and around these fires located in eastern Montana within the Missouri River Breaks. The objectives of the prescribed fires were to decrease tree density and favor increased herbaceous cover, thus decreasing the potential for crown fire. Our objective was to evaluate post-fire tree density,...

Drowning out the protection racket: partner manipulation or drought can strengthen ant-plant mutualism.

PubMed

Denison, R Ford

2014-07-01

Two recent reports discuss interactions between plants and ants that defend them from herbivores. Acacia trees provide their ant bodyguards with a diet that reduces their ability to benefit from alternate hosts. Provisioning of ants by Cordia trees during drought may buy insurance against extreme defoliation events, not just average-year benefits. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applicability of predictive models of drought-induced tree mortality between the midwest and northeast United States

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2014-01-01

Regression models developed in the upper Midwest (United States) to predict drought-induced tree mortality from measures of drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index) were tested in the northeastern United States and found inadequate. The most likely cause of this result is that long drought events were rare in the Northeast during the period when inventory data were...

Effect of simulated ice storm damage on loblolly pine tree and stand growth

Treesearch

Rodney E. Will; Thomas Hennessey; Thomas Lynch; Robert Heinemann; Randal Holeman; Dennis Wilson

2012-01-01

Ice damage to loblolly pine plantations is a recurrent problem in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with significant ice events occurring recently in 1995, twice in 2000, and in 2007. Following ice damage, forest owners need to decide to clear-cut and replant, thin or partial cut to rehabilitate, or take no action. A quantitative assessment of tree and stand growth...

Snag characteristics and dynamics following natural and artificially induced mortality in a managed loblolly pine forest

Treesearch

Stanley Zarnoch; Mark A. Vukovich; John C. Kilgo; John I. Blake

2013-01-01

A 14-year study of snag characteristics was established in 41- to 44-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands in southeastern USA. During the initial 5.5 years, no stand manipulation or unusually high-mortality events occurred. Afterwards, three treatments were applied consisting of trees thinned and removed, trees felled and not removed, and artificial creation...

Comparison of charcoal and tree-ring records of recent fires in the eastern Klamath Mountains, California, USA

Treesearch

Cathy Whitlock; Carl N. Skinner; Patrick J. Bartlein; Thomas Minckley; Jerry A. Mohr

2004-01-01

Fire-history reconstructions are based on tree-ring records that span the last few centuries and charcoal data from lake-sediment cores that extend back several thousand years. The two approaches have unique strengths and weaknesses in their ability to depict past fire events and fire regimes, and most comparisons of these datasets in western conifer forests have...

Predicting serious complications in patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism using decision tree modelling: the EPIPHANY Index

PubMed Central

Carmona-Bayonas, A; Jiménez-Fonseca, P; Font, C; Fenoy, F; Otero, R; Beato, C; Plasencia, J M; Biosca, M; Sánchez, M; Benegas, M; Calvo-Temprano, D; Varona, D; Faez, L; de la Haba, I; Antonio, M; Madridano, O; Solis, M P; Ramchandani, A; Castañón, E; Marchena, P J; Martín, M; Ayala de la Peña, F; Vicente, V

2017-01-01

Background: Our objective was to develop a prognostic stratification tool that enables patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE), whether incidental or symptomatic, to be classified according to the risk of serious complications within 15 days. Methods: The sample comprised cases from a national registry of pulmonary thromboembolism in patients with cancer (1075 patients from 14 Spanish centres). Diagnosis was incidental in 53.5% of the events in this registry. The Exhaustive CHAID analysis was applied with 10-fold cross-validation to predict development of serious complications following PE diagnosis. Results: About 208 patients (19.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 17.1–21.8%) developed a serious complication after PE diagnosis. The 15-day mortality rate was 10.1%, (95% CI, 8.4–12.1%). The decision tree detected six explanatory covariates: Hestia-like clinical decision rule (any risk criterion present vs none), Eastern Cooperative Group performance scale (ECOG-PS; <2 vs ⩾2), O2 saturation (<90 vs ⩾90%), presence of PE-specific symptoms, tumour response (progression, unknown, or not evaluated vs others), and primary tumour resection. Three risk classes were created (low, intermediate, and high risk). The risk of serious complications within 15 days increases according to the group: 1.6, 9.4, 30.6% P<0.0001. Fifteen-day mortality rates also rise progressively in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients: 0.3, 6.1, and 17.1% P<0.0001. The cross-validated risk estimate is 0.191 (s.e.=0.012). The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.779 (95% CI, 0.717–0.840). Conclusions: We have developed and internally validated a prognostic index to predict serious complications with the potential to impact decision-making in patients with cancer and PE. PMID:28267709

Changes in water, nitrogen and carbon cycling in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) during a mortality event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renninger, H. J.; Hornslein, N.; Siegert, C. M.

2017-12-01

Depending on the type of disturbance, the mortality process of an individual tree may occur over an extended period leading to changes in tree and ecosystem functioning throughout this time period and before ultimate tree death is evident. Therefore, the goals of this research were to quantify physiological changes occurring in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) during an extended mortality event. In July 2015, ten trees were girdled to simulate a Southern pine beetle disturbance and trees were monitored until their eventual mortality which occurred from Aug. to Dec. of 2016. Sapflow rates and litterfall were monitored throughout the mortality process and photosynthetic rates and leaf nitrogen concentrations were measured at the height of the 2016 growing season. Girdled pines had significantly higher sapflow compared with control pines in the first month following girdling, then sapflow did not differ significantly for the remainder of the 2015 growing season. From Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2016, control trees had about 25% higher sapflow compared with girdled pines, but both groups maintained a similar relationship between sapflow and soil moisture. Extensive litterfall occurred throughout the 2016 growing season and litter had 50% higher N concentration than the prior growing season. N concentration of fresh leaves collected in 2016 did not differ in girdled vs. control pines but control pines had 64% higher maximum Rubisco-limited carboxylation rates (Vcmax) and 68% higher electron transport-limited carboxylation rates (Jmax) compared to girdled pines. Control pines also had 66% higher foliage densities and 44% larger growth ring widths than girdled pines at the end of the 2016 growing season. Taken together, these results highlight the physiological changes that occur in pines undergoing mortality before needles completely discolor and drop. Compared with control pines, girdled pines exhibited greater changes in carbon and nitrogen compared with water use suggesting that sapflow per unit leaf area was increased to compensate for the losses in total leaf area. These data highlight the importance of physiological measurements taken throughout a mortality event to more accurately quantify the changes in ecosystem-scale water, nitrogen and carbon balance occurring during disturbance episodes.

Genome-wide SNP data suggest complex ancestry of sympatric North Pacific killer whale ecotypes.

PubMed

Foote, A D; Morin, P A

2016-11-01

Three ecotypes of killer whale occur in partial sympatry in the North Pacific. Individuals assortatively mate within the same ecotype, resulting in correlated ecological and genetic differentiation. A key question is whether this pattern of evolutionary divergence is an example of incipient sympatric speciation from a single panmictic ancestral population, or whether sympatry could have resulted from multiple colonisations of the North Pacific and secondary contact between ecotypes. Here, we infer multilocus coalescent trees from >1000 nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and find evidence of incomplete lineage sorting so that the genealogies of SNPs do not all conform to a single topology. To disentangle whether uncertainty in the phylogenetic inference of the relationships among ecotypes could also result from ancestral admixture events we reconstructed the relationship among the ecotypes as an admixture graph and estimated f 4 -statistics using TreeMix. The results were consistent with episodes of admixture between two of the North Pacific ecotypes and the two outgroups (populations from the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic). Gene flow may have occurred via unsampled 'ghost' populations rather than directly between the populations sampled here. Our results indicate that because of ancestral admixture events and incomplete lineage sorting, a single bifurcating tree does not fully describe the relationship among these populations. The data are therefore most consistent with the genomic variation among North Pacific killer whale ecotypes resulting from multiple colonisation events, and secondary contact may have facilitated evolutionary divergence. Thus, the present-day populations of North Pacific killer whale ecotypes have a complex ancestry, confounding the tree-based inference of ancestral geography.

Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Saez, J.; Corona, C.; Stoffel, M.; Gotteland, A.; Berger, F.; Liébault, F.

2011-05-01

Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931-2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Species tree inference by minimizing deep coalescences.

PubMed

Than, Cuong; Nakhleh, Luay

2009-09-01

In a 1997 seminal paper, W. Maddison proposed minimizing deep coalescences, or MDC, as an optimization criterion for inferring the species tree from a set of incongruent gene trees, assuming the incongruence is exclusively due to lineage sorting. In a subsequent paper, Maddison and Knowles provided and implemented a search heuristic for optimizing the MDC criterion, given a set of gene trees. However, the heuristic is not guaranteed to compute optimal solutions, and its hill-climbing search makes it slow in practice. In this paper, we provide two exact solutions to the problem of inferring the species tree from a set of gene trees under the MDC criterion. In other words, our solutions are guaranteed to find the tree that minimizes the total number of deep coalescences from a set of gene trees. One solution is based on a novel integer linear programming (ILP) formulation, and another is based on a simple dynamic programming (DP) approach. Powerful ILP solvers, such as CPLEX, make the first solution appealing, particularly for very large-scale instances of the problem, whereas the DP-based solution eliminates dependence on proprietary tools, and its simplicity makes it easy to integrate with other genomic events that may cause gene tree incongruence. Using the exact solutions, we analyze a data set of 106 loci from eight yeast species, a data set of 268 loci from eight Apicomplexan species, and several simulated data sets. We show that the MDC criterion provides very accurate estimates of the species tree topologies, and that our solutions are very fast, thus allowing for the accurate analysis of genome-scale data sets. Further, the efficiency of the solutions allow for quick exploration of sub-optimal solutions, which is important for a parsimony-based criterion such as MDC, as we show. We show that searching for the species tree in the compatibility graph of the clusters induced by the gene trees may be sufficient in practice, a finding that helps ameliorate the computational requirements of optimization solutions. Further, we study the statistical consistency and convergence rate of the MDC criterion, as well as its optimality in inferring the species tree. Finally, we show how our solutions can be used to identify potential horizontal gene transfer events that may have caused some of the incongruence in the data, thus augmenting Maddison's original framework. We have implemented our solutions in the PhyloNet software package, which is freely available at: http://bioinfo.cs.rice.edu/phylonet.

Value of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification for Risk Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Events: Result of the HNR Study (Heinz Nixdorf Recall).

PubMed

Lehmann, Nils; Erbel, Raimund; Mahabadi, Amir A; Rauwolf, Michael; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2018-02-13

Computed tomography (CT) allows estimation of coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. We evaluated several progression algorithms in our unselected, population-based cohort for risk prediction of coronary and cardiovascular events. In 3281 participants (45-74 years of age), free from cardiovascular disease until the second visit, risk factors, and CTs at baseline (b) and after a mean of 5.1 years (5y) were measured. Hard coronary and cardiovascular events, and total cardiovascular events including revascularization, as well, were recorded during a follow-up time of 7.8±2.2 years after the second CT. The added predictive value of 10 CAC progression algorithms on top of risk factors including baseline CAC was evaluated by using survival analysis, C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index. A subgroup analysis of risk in CAC categories was performed. We observed 85 (2.6%) hard coronary, 161 (4.9%) hard cardiovascular, and 241 (7.3%) total cardiovascular events. Absolute CAC progression was higher with versus without subsequent coronary events (median, 115 [Q1-Q3, 23-360] versus 8 [0-83], P <0.0001; similar for hard/total cardiovascular events). Some progression algorithms added to the predictive value of baseline CT and risk assessment in terms of C-statistic or integrated discrimination index, especially for total cardiovascular events. However, CAC progression did not improve models including CAC 5y and 5-year risk factors. An excellent prognosis was found for 921 participants with double-zero CAC b =CAC 5y =0 (10-year coronary and hard/total cardiovascular risk: 1.4%, 2.0%, and 2.8%), which was for participants with incident CAC 1.8%, 3.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. When CAC b progressed from 1 to 399 to CAC 5y ≥400, coronary and total cardiovascular risk were nearly 2-fold in comparison with subjects who remained below CAC 5y =400. Participants with CAC b ≥400 had high rates of hard coronary and hard/total cardiovascular events (10-year risk: 12.0%, 13.5%, and 30.9%, respectively). CAC progression is associated with coronary and cardiovascular event rates, but adds only weakly to risk prediction. What counts is the most recent CAC value and risk factor assessment. Therefore, a repeat scan >5 years after the first scan may be of additional value, except when a double-zero CT scan is present or when the subjects are already at high risk. © 2017 The Authors.

Shillapoo Wildlife Area, Annual Report 2007-2008.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calkins, Brian

This report summarizes accomplishments, challenges and successes on WDFW's Shillapoo Wildlife Area funded under Bonneville Power Administration's (BPA) Wildlife Mitigation Program (BPA project No.2003-012-00) during the Fiscal Year 08 contract period October 1, 2007-September 30, 2008. The information presented here is intended to supplement that contained in BPA's PISCES contract development and reporting system. The organization below is by broad categories of work but references are made to individual work elements in the PISCES Statement of Work as appropriate. Significant progress was realized in almost all major work types. Of particular note was progress made in tree plantings and pasturemore » rehabilitation efforts. This year's tree planting effort included five sites detailed below and in terms of the number of plants was certainly the largest effort on the wildlife area to date in one season. The planting itself took a significant amount of time, which was anticipated. However, installation of mats and tubes took much longer than expected which impacted planned fence projects in particular. Survival of the plantings appears to be good. Improvement to the quality of waterfowl pasture habitats is evident on a number of sites due to replanting and weed control efforts. Continuing long-term weed control efforts will be key in improving this particular type of habitat. A prolonged cold, wet spring and a number of equipment breakdowns presented stumbling blocks that impacted schedules and ultimately progress on planned activities. The unusual spring weather delayed fieldwork on pasture planting projects as well as weed control and slowed the process of maintaining trees and shrubs. This time lag also caused the continued deferral of some of our fencing projects. The large brush hog mower had the driveline break twice and the smaller tractor had an engine failure that caused it to be down for over a month. We have modified our budget plan for next year to include a temporary employee that will work primarily on tree maintenance and fencing projects to make sure that we make progress in these areas and we will be investigating whether a heavier duty driveline can be obtained for the mower.« less

Multiple channel coincidence detector and controller for microseismic data analysis

DOEpatents

Fasching, George E.

1976-11-16

A multiple channel coincidence detector circuit is provided for analyzing data either in real time or recorded data on a magnetic tape during an experiment for determining location and progression of fractures in an oil field or the like while water is being injected at high pressure in wells located in the field. The circuit is based upon the utilization of a set of parity generator trees combined with monostable multivibrators to detect the occurrence of two events at any pair of channel input terminals that are within a preselected time frame and have an amplitude above a preselected magnitude. The parity generators perform an exclusive OR function in a timing circuit composed of monostable multivibrators that serve to yield an output when two events are present in the preselected time frame. Any coincidences falling outside this time frame are considered either noise or not otherwise useful in the analysis of the recorded data. Input pulses of absolute magnitude below the low-level threshold setting of a bipolar low-level threshold detector are unwanted and therefore rejected. A control output is provided for a utilization device from a coincidence hold circuit that may be used to halt a tape search unit at the time of coincidence or perform other useful control functions.

Enhanced tocopherol levels during early germination events in Chamaerops humilis var. humilis seeds.

PubMed

Siles, Laura; Alegre, Leonor; Tijero, Verónica; Munné-Bosch, Sergi

2015-10-01

Most angiosperms accumulate vitamin E in the form of tocopherols in seeds, exerting a protective antioxidant role. However, several palm trees principally accumulate tocotrienols, rather than tocopherols, in seeds, as it occurs in other monocots. To unravel the protective role of either tocopherols or tocotrienols against lipid peroxidation during seed germination in Chamaerops humilis var. humilis; seed viability, natural and induced germination capacity, seed water content, malondialdehyde levels (as an indicator of the extent of lipid peroxidation) and vitamin E levels (including both tocopherols and tocotrienols) were examined at various germination phases in a simulated, natural seed bank. At the very early stages of germination (operculum removal), malondialdehyde levels increased 2.8-fold, to decrease later up to 74%, thus indicating a transient lipid peroxidation at early stages of germination. Tocopherol levels were absent in quiescent seeds and did not increase during operculum removal, but increased later presumably dampening malondialdehyde accumulation. Thereafter, tocopherols continued increasing, while lipid peroxidation levels decreased. By contrast, tocotrienols levels remained constant or even decreased as germination progressed, showing no correlation with lipid peroxidation levels. We hypothesize that despite their high tocotrienol content, seeds synthesize tocopherols during germination to protect lipids from peroxidation events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular characterization and gene expression patterns of retinoid receptors, in normal and regenerating tissues of the sea cucumber, Holothuria glaberrima.

PubMed

Viera-Vera, Jorge; García-Arrarás, José E

2018-05-15

Retinoic acid receptors (RAR) and retinoid X receptors (RXR) are ligand-mediated transcription factors that synchronize intricate signaling networks in metazoans. Dimer formation between these two nuclear receptors mediates the recruitment of co-regulatory complexes coordinating the progression of signaling cascades during developmental and regenerative events. In the present study we identified and characterized the receptors for retinoic acid in the sea cucumber Holothuria glaberrima; a model system capable of regenerative organogenesis during adulthood. Molecular characterizations revealed the presence of three isoforms of RAR and two of RXR as a consequence of alternative splicing events. Various analyses including: primary structure sequencing, phylogenetic analysis, protein domain prediction, and multiple sequence alignment further confirmed their identity. Semiquantitative reverse transcription PCR analysis of each receptor isoform herein identified showed that the retinoid receptors are expressed in all tissues sampled: the mesenteries, respiratory trees, muscles, gonads, and the digestive tract. During regenerative organogenesis two of the receptors (RAR-L and RXR-T) showed differential expression in the posterior segment while RAR-S is differentially expressed in the anterior segment of the intestine. This work presents the first description of the components relaying the signaling for retinoic acid within this model system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reinforcement Learning Trees

PubMed Central

Zhu, Ruoqing; Zeng, Donglin; Kosorok, Michael R.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a new type of tree-based method, reinforcement learning trees (RLT), which exhibits significantly improved performance over traditional methods such as random forests (Breiman, 2001) under high-dimensional settings. The innovations are three-fold. First, the new method implements reinforcement learning at each selection of a splitting variable during the tree construction processes. By splitting on the variable that brings the greatest future improvement in later splits, rather than choosing the one with largest marginal effect from the immediate split, the constructed tree utilizes the available samples in a more efficient way. Moreover, such an approach enables linear combination cuts at little extra computational cost. Second, we propose a variable muting procedure that progressively eliminates noise variables during the construction of each individual tree. The muting procedure also takes advantage of reinforcement learning and prevents noise variables from being considered in the search for splitting rules, so that towards terminal nodes, where the sample size is small, the splitting rules are still constructed from only strong variables. Last, we investigate asymptotic properties of the proposed method under basic assumptions and discuss rationale in general settings. PMID:26903687

From Gene Trees to a Dated Allopolyploid Network: Insights from the Angiosperm Genus Viola (Violaceae)

PubMed Central

Marcussen, Thomas; Heier, Lise; Brysting, Anne K.; Oxelman, Bengt; Jakobsen, Kjetill S.

2015-01-01

Allopolyploidization accounts for a significant fraction of speciation events in many eukaryotic lineages. However, existing phylogenetic and dating methods require tree-like topologies and are unable to handle the network-like phylogenetic relationships of lineages containing allopolyploids. No explicit framework has so far been established for evaluating competing network topologies, and few attempts have been made to date phylogenetic networks. We used a four-step approach to generate a dated polyploid species network for the cosmopolitan angiosperm genus Viola L. (Violaceae Batch.). The genus contains ca 600 species and both recent (neo-) and more ancient (meso-) polyploid lineages distributed over 16 sections. First, we obtained DNA sequences of three low-copy nuclear genes and one chloroplast region, from 42 species representing all 16 sections. Second, we obtained fossil-calibrated chronograms for each nuclear gene marker. Third, we determined the most parsimonious multilabeled genome tree and its corresponding network, resolved at the section (not the species) level. Reconstructing the “correct” network for a set of polyploids depends on recovering all homoeologs, i.e., all subgenomes, in these polyploids. Assuming the presence of Viola subgenome lineages that were not detected by the nuclear gene phylogenies (“ghost subgenome lineages”) significantly reduced the number of inferred polyploidization events. We identified the most parsimonious network topology from a set of five competing scenarios differing in the interpretation of homoeolog extinctions and lineage sorting, based on (i) fewest possible ghost subgenome lineages, (ii) fewest possible polyploidization events, and (iii) least possible deviation from expected ploidy as inferred from available chromosome counts of the involved polyploid taxa. Finally, we estimated the homoploid and polyploid speciation times of the most parsimonious network. Homoploid speciation times were estimated by coalescent analysis of gene tree node ages. Polyploid speciation times were estimated by comparing branch lengths and speciation rates of lineages with and without ploidy shifts. Our analyses recognize Viola as an old genus (crown age 31 Ma) whose evolutionary history has been profoundly affected by allopolyploidy. Between 16 and 21 allopolyploidizations are necessary to explain the diversification of the 16 major lineages (sections) of Viola, suggesting that allopolyploidy has accounted for a high percentage—between 67% and 88%—of the speciation events at this level. The theoretical and methodological approaches presented here for (i) constructing networks and (ii) dating speciation events within a network, have general applicability for phylogenetic studies of groups where allopolyploidization has occurred. They make explicit use of a hitherto underexplored source of ploidy information from chromosome counts to help resolve phylogenetic cases where incomplete sequence data hampers network inference. Importantly, the coalescent-based method used herein circumvents the assumption of tree-like evolution required by most techniques for dating speciation events. PMID:25281848

Ecohydrology of Lodgepole Pine Forests: Connecting Transpiration to Subsurface Flow Paths and Storage within a Subalpine Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byers, A.; Harpold, A. A.; Barnard, H. R.

2011-12-01

The hydrologic cycle plays a central role in regulating ecosystem structure and function. Linked studies of both subsurface and aboveground processes are needed to improve understanding of ecosystem changes that could result from climate change and disturbance in Colorado's subalpine forests. Here, we present data from plots dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) at the Niwot Ridge LTER site on the Colorado Front Range that improves the process-level understanding of the source and fate of water between subsurface storage and plant uptake. This study utilized event-based sampling during the 2011 growing season to investigate a paradox between water sources and rooting depth in lodgepole pine. Findings from Niwot Ridge have shown that lodgepole, typically believed to be a shallow-rooted species, appear to be strongly dependent on water from snowmelt for the entire growing season. These results suggested that conifer species were accessing water from deeper in the soil than summer monsoon rain typically penetrated. In our study, the relationship between precipitation event size and depth of infiltration on a seasonal and event basis, the effective rooting depth of lodgepole pine, and hysteretic responses of transpiration to soil moisture over a growing season were examined using measurements of tree physiological processes (sap flux and water stress) and hydrological parameters (precipitation, soil moisture) as well as stable water isotope composition of xylem water, mobile and immobile soil water, snow, precipitation, and stream water. Analysis of data shows that soil moisture in deep layers (60 and 70 cm) responds to large summer rain events of 0.7 mm and greater, and that lodgepole sap flux increases by 15-30% within 24 hours of monsoon events and decreases over 72 hours or until subsequent rain. Water isotope analysis will further elucidate the source and event response of these trees. This research helps us understand whether processes known to occur in Mediterranean climate regimes, such as the "two water worlds" theory that tightly bound water in soil is available to trees but is separate from mobile water that drains to streams, also applies to continental mountainous climates. Furthermore, understanding the mediation of hydrologic processes by trees like lodgepole pine will improve modeling of hydrological and ecological processes and knowledge of forest susceptibility to climate change and other disturbance impacts.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity-based regionalization concept is not applicable.

Use of graphics in decision aids for telerobotic control: (Parts 5-8 of an 8-part MIT progress report)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheridan, Thomas B.; Roseborough, James B.; Das, Hari; Chin, Kan-Ping; Inoue, Seiichi

1989-01-01

Four separate projects recently completed or in progress at the MIT Man-Machine Systems Laboratory are summarized. They are: a decision aid for retrieving a tumbling satellite in space; kinematic control and graphic display of redundant teleoperators; real time terrain/object generation: a quad-tree approach; and two dimensional control for three dimensional obstacle avoidance.

Theory and Practice in Determining the Long-Term Spatial Productivity of Drylands: A California Blue Oak Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Therrell, M. D.; Emanuel, R. E.

2007-12-01

Herbivory, fire, and climatic events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña have been shown to have proximal and evolutionary effects on the dynamics of Dryland fauna, flora, and soils. However, spatially-explicit historical impacts of these climatic events on Dryland ecosystems is not known. Consequently, this paper has the purpose of presenting the theory and practical application for estimating the historical spatial impacts of these climatic events. We hypothesize that if remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) are correlated to historical tree ring data and also to functional ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) as measured by eddy covariance flux towers, then VIs can be used to spatially and temporally distribute GPP and NEP within the species- or community-specific land cover extent over the length of the tree ring record of selected Dryland ecosystems. Secondly, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model (DTM) data has been used to estimate tree height and in conjuction with plant allometric equations: biomass and standing carbon in various forest ecosystems. Tree height data in relation to tree ring age data and fire history can be used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of savanna demographic age structure, predict standing carbon and thus provide a complementary and independent dataset for comparison to DTMs from Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived GPP spatial maps. We developed a database consisting of a dendrochronology record, SRTM data, globa fre history data, Long term Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (LTDR AVHRR NDVI, 1981 - 2003), contemporary gridded climate data, National Land Cover Data (NLCD), and short term eddy covariance flux tower data for the California Blue Oak woodland ecosystem to estimate both regional aboveground productivity and past disturbance history relative climate, particularly droughts, for the last 500 years.

A geo-computational algorithm for exploring the structure of diffusion progression in time and space.

PubMed

Chin, Wei-Chien-Benny; Wen, Tzai-Hung; Sabel, Clive E; Wang, I-Hsiang

2017-10-03

A diffusion process can be considered as the movement of linked events through space and time. Therefore, space-time locations of events are key to identify any diffusion process. However, previous clustering analysis methods have focused only on space-time proximity characteristics, neglecting the temporal lag of the movement of events. We argue that the temporal lag between events is a key to understand the process of diffusion movement. Using the temporal lag could help to clarify the types of close relationships. This study aims to develop a data exploration algorithm, namely the TrAcking Progression In Time And Space (TaPiTaS) algorithm, for understanding diffusion processes. Based on the spatial distance and temporal interval between cases, TaPiTaS detects sub-clusters, a group of events that have high probability of having common sources, identifies progression links, the relationships between sub-clusters, and tracks progression chains, the connected components of sub-clusters. Dengue Fever cases data was used as an illustrative case study. The location and temporal range of sub-clusters are presented, along with the progression links. TaPiTaS algorithm contributes a more detailed and in-depth understanding of the development of progression chains, namely the geographic diffusion process.

Spectral Reflectance and Vegetation Index Changes in Deciduous Forest Foliage Following Tree Removal: Potential for Deforestation Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, D.; Hu, Y.; Li, Z.

2016-05-01

It is important to detect and quantify deforestation to guide strategic decisions regarding environment, socioeconomic development, and climate change. In the present study, we conducted a field experiment to examine spectral reflectance and vegetation index changes in poplar and locust tree foliage with different leaf area indices over the course of three sunny days, following tree removal from the canopy. The spectral reflectance of foliage from harvested trees was measured using an ASD FieldSpec Prospectroradiometer; synchronous meteorological data were also obtained. We found that reflectance in short-wave infrared and red-edge reflectance was more time sensitive after tree removal than reflectance in other spectral regions, and that the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the red-edge chlorophyll index (CIRE) were the preferred indicators of these changes from several indices evaluated. Synthesized meteorological environments were found to influence water and chlorophyll contents after tree removal, and this subsequently changed the spectral canopy reflectance. Our results indicate the potential for such tree removal to be detected with NDWI or CIRE from the second day of a deforestation event.

Next generation immunotherapy for tree pollen allergies.

PubMed

Su, Yan; Romeu-Bonilla, Eliezer; Heiland, Teri

2017-10-03

Tree pollen induced allergies are one of the major medical and public health burdens in the industrialized world. Allergen-Specific Immunotherapy (AIT) through subcutaneous injection or sublingual delivery is the only approved therapy with curative potential to pollen induced allergies. AIT often is associated with severe side effects and requires long-term treatment. Safer, more effective and convenient allergen specific immunotherapies remain an unmet need. In this review article, we discuss the current progress in applying protein and peptide-based approaches and DNA vaccines to the clinical challenges posed by tree pollen allergies through the lens of preclinical animal models and clinical trials, with an emphasis on the birch and Japanese red cedar pollen induced allergies.

Molecular and physiological responses of trees to waterlogging stress.

PubMed

Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Rennenberg, Heinz

2014-10-01

One major effect of global climate change will be altered precipitation patterns in many regions of the world. This will cause a higher probability of long-term waterlogging in winter/spring and flash floods in summer because of extreme rainfall events. Particularly, trees not adapted at their natural site to such waterlogging stress can be impaired. Despite the enormous economic, ecological and social importance of forest ecosystems, the effect of waterlogging on trees is far less understood than the effect on many crops or the model plant Arabidopsis. There is only a handful of studies available investigating the transcriptome and metabolome of waterlogged trees. Main physiological responses of trees to waterlogging include the stimulation of fermentative pathways and an accelerated glycolytic flux. Many energy-consuming, anabolic processes are slowed down to overcome the energy crisis mediated by waterlogging. A crucial feature of waterlogging tolerance is the steady supply of glycolysis with carbohydrates, particularly in the roots; stress-sensitive trees fail to maintain sufficient carbohydrate availability resulting in the dieback of the stressed tissues. The present review summarizes physiological and molecular features of waterlogging tolerance of trees; the focus is on carbon metabolism in both, leaves and roots of trees. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest trees filter chronic wind-signals to acclimate to high winds.

PubMed

Bonnesoeur, Vivien; Constant, Thiéry; Moulia, Bruno; Fournier, Meriem

2016-05-01

Controlled experiments have shown that trees acclimate thigmomorphogenetically to wind-loads by sensing their deformation (strain). However, the strain regime in nature is exposed to a full spectrum of winds. We hypothesized that trees avoid overreacting by responding only to winds which bring information on local climate and/or wind exposure. Additionally, competition for light dependent on tree social status also likely affects thigmomorphogenesis. We monitored and manipulated quantitatively the strain regimes of 15 pairs of beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees of contrasting social status in an acclimated stand, and quantified the effects of these regimes on the radial growth over a vegetative season. Trees exposed to artificial bending, the intensity of which corresponds to the strongest wind-induced strains, enhanced their secondary growth by at least 80%. Surprisingly, this reaction was even greater - relatively - for suppressed trees than for dominant ones. Acclimated trees did not sense the different types of wind events in the same way. Daily wind speed peaks due to thermal winds were filtered out. Thigmomorphogenesis was therefore driven by intense storms. Thigmomorphogenesis is also likely to be involved in determining social status. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Helping your woodland adapt to climate change

Treesearch

Tracey Saxby; Marcus Griswold; Caroline Wicks

2013-01-01

Your woods are always changing and adapting as they grow and mature, or regrow after agricultural abandonment, natural disturbances, or harvesting activities. Events like storms, droughts, insect and disease outbreaks, or other stressors can damage trees or slow their growth. A changing climate may make your woods more susceptible to the problems these events can cause...

Cosmic ray event in 994 C.E. recorded in radiocarbon from Danish oak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogtmann-Schulz, A.; Østbø, S. M.; Nielsen, S. G. B.; Olsen, J.; Karoff, C.; Knudsen, M. F.

2017-08-01

We present measurements of radiocarbon in annual tree rings from the time period 980-1006 Common Era (C.E.), hereby covering the cosmic ray event in 994 C.E. The new radiocarbon record from Danish oak is based on both earlywood and latewood fractions of the tree rings, which makes it possible to study seasonal variations in 14C production. The measurements show a rapid increase of ˜10‰ from 993 to 994 C.E. in latewood, followed by a modest decline and relatively high values over the ensuing ˜10 years. This rapid increase occurs from 994 to 995 C.E. in earlywood, suggesting that the cosmic ray event most likely occurred during the period between April and June 994 C.E. Our new record from Danish oak shows strong agreement with existing Δ14C records from Japan, thus supporting the hypothesis that the 994 C.E. cosmic ray event was uniform throughout the Northern Hemisphere and therefore can be used as an astrochronological tie point to anchor floating chronologies of ancient history.

Association of wildfire with tree health and numbers of pine bark beetles, reproduction weevils and their associates in Florida

Treesearch

James L. Hanula; James R. Meeker; Daniel R. Miller; Edward L. Barnard

2002-01-01

Wildfires burned over 200,000 ha of forests in Florida from April to July 1998. This unique disturbance event provided a valuable opportunity to study the interactions of summer wildfires with the activity of pine feeding insects and their associates in the southeastern United States. We compared tree mortality with abundance of bark and ambrosia beetles, reproduction...

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, M.E.

1981-01-01

An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible.

Optimizing homeostatic cell renewal in hierarchical tissues

PubMed Central

Fider, Nicole A.

2018-01-01

In order to maintain homeostasis, mature cells removed from the top compartment of hierarchical tissues have to be replenished by means of differentiation and self-renewal events happening in the more primitive compartments. As each cell division is associated with a risk of mutation, cell division patterns have to be optimized, in order to minimize or delay the risk of malignancy generation. Here we study this optimization problem, focusing on the role of division tree length, that is, the number of layers of cells activated in response to the loss of terminally differentiated cells, which is related to the balance between differentiation and self-renewal events in the compartments. Using both analytical methods and stochastic simulations in a metapopulation-style model, we find that shorter division trees are advantageous if the objective is to minimize the total number of one-hit mutants in the cell population. Longer division trees on the other hand minimize the accumulation of two-hit mutants, which is a more likely evolutionary goal given the key role played by tumor suppressor genes in cancer initiation. While division tree length is the most important property determining mutant accumulation, we also find that increasing the size of primitive compartments helps to delay two-hit mutant generation. PMID:29447149

What contributes to perceived stress in later life? A recursive partitioning approach.

PubMed

Scott, Stacey B; Jackson, Brenda R; Bergeman, C S

2011-12-01

One possible explanation for the individual differences in outcomes of stress is the diversity of inputs that produce perceptions of being stressed. The current study examines how combinations of contextual features (e.g., social isolation, neighborhood quality, health problems, age discrimination, financial concerns, and recent life events) of later life contribute to overall feelings of stress. Recursive partitioning techniques (regression trees and random forests) were used to examine unique interrelations between predictors of perceived stress in a sample of 282 community-dwelling adults. Trees provided possible examples of equifinality (i.e., subsets of people with similar levels of perceived stress but different predictors) as well as identification both of contextual combinations that separated participants with very high and very low perceived stress. Random forest analyses aggregated across many trees based on permuted versions of the data and predictors; loneliness, financial strain, neighborhood strain, ageism, and to some extent life events emerged as important predictors. Interviews with a subsample of participants provided both thick description of the complex relationships identified in the trees, as well as additional risks not appearing in the survey results. Together, the analyses highlight what may be missed when stress is used as a simple unidimensional construct and can guide differential intervention efforts.

What contributes to perceived stress in later life? A recursive partitioning approach

PubMed Central

Scott, Stacey B.; Jackson, Brenda R.; Bergeman, C. S.

2011-01-01

One possible explanation for the individual differences in outcomes of stress is the diversity of inputs that produce perceptions of being stressed. The current study examines how combinations of contextual features (e.g., social isolation, neighborhood quality, health problems, age discrimination, financial concerns, and recent life events) of later life contribute to overall feelings of stress. Recursive partitioning techniques (regression trees and random forests) were used to examine unique interrelations between predictors of perceived stress in a sample of 282 community-dwelling adults. Trees provided possible examples of equifinality (i.e., subsets of people with similar levels of perceived stress but different predictors) as well as for the identification both of contextual combinations that separated participants with very high and very low perceived stress. Random forest analyses aggregated across many trees based on permuted versions of the data and predictors; loneliness, financial strain, neighborhood strain, ageism, and to some extent life events emerged as important predictors. Interviews with a subsample of participants provided both thick description of the complex relationships identified in the trees, as well as additional risks not appearing in the survey results. Together, the analyses highlight what may be missed when stress is used as a simple unidimensional construct and can guide differential intervention efforts. PMID:21604885

Chromosomal phylogeny of Robertsonian races of the house mouse on the island of Madeira: testing between alternative mutational processes.

PubMed

Britton-Davidian, Janice; Catalan, Josette; da Graça Ramalhinho, Maria; Auffray, Jean-Christophe; Claudia Nunes, Ana; Gazave, Elodie; Searle, Jeremy B; da Luz Mathias, Maria

2005-12-01

The ancestral karyotype of the house mouse (Mus musculus) consists of 40 acrocentric chromosomes, but numerous races exist within the domesticus subspecies characterized by different metacentric chromosomes formed by the joining at the centromere of two acrocentrics. An exemplary case is present on the island of Madeira where six highly divergent chromosomal races have accumulated different combinations of 20 metacentrics in 500-1000 years. Chromosomal cladistic phylogenies were performed to test the relative performance of Robertsonian (Rb) fusions, Rb fissions and whole-arm reciprocal translocations (WARTs) in resolving relationships between the chromosomal races. The different trees yielded roughly similar topologies, but varied in the number of steps and branch support. The analyses using Rb fusions/fissions as characters resulted in poorly supported trees requiring six to eight homoplasious events. Allowance for WARTs considerably increased nodal support and yielded the most parsimonious trees since homoplasy was reduced to a single event. The WART-based trees required five to nine WARTs and 12 to 16 Rb fusions. These analyses provide support for the role of WARTs in generating the extensive chromosomal diversification observed in house mice. The repeated occurrence of Rb fusions and WARTs highlights the contribution of centromere-related rearrangements to accelerated rates of chromosomal change in the house mouse.

From America to Eurasia: a multigenomes history of the genus Abies.

PubMed

Semerikova, Svetlana A; Khrunyk, Yuliya Y; Lascoux, Martin; Semerikov, Vladimir L

2018-03-15

The origin of conifer genera, the main components of mountain temperate and boreal forests, was deemed to arise in the Mesozoic, although paleontological records and molecular data point to a recent diversification, presumably related to Neogene cooling. The geographical area(s) where the modern lines of conifers emerged remains uncertain, as is the sequence of events leading to their present distribution. To gain further insights into the biogeography of firs (Abies), we conducted phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast, mitochondrial and nuclear markers. The species tree, generated from ten single-copy nuclear genes, yielded probably the best phylogenetic hypothesis available for Abies. The tree obtained from five regions of chloroplast DNA largely corresponded to the nuclear species tree. Ancestral area reconstructions based on fossil calibrated chloroplast DNA and nuclear DNA trees pointed to repeated intercontinental migrations. The mitochondrial DNA haplotype tree, however, disagreed with nuclear and chloroplast DNA trees. It consisted of two clusters: one included mainly American haplotypes, while the other was composed of only Eurasian haplotypes. Presumably, this conflict is due to inter-continental migrations and introgressive hybridization, accompanied by the capture of the mitotypes from aboriginal species by the invading firs. Given that several species inhabiting Northeastern Asia carry American mitotypes and mutations typical for the American cluster, whereas no Asian mitotypes were detected within the American species, we hypothesize that Abies migrated from America to Eurasia, but not in the opposite direction. The direction and age of intercontinental migrations in firs are congruent with other conifers, such as spruces and pines of subsection Strobus, suggesting that these events had the same cause. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Photosynthetic functions of cembran pines and dwarf pines during winter at timberline as regulated by different temperatures, snowcover and light.

PubMed

Lehner, Gabriele; Lütz, Cornelius

2003-02-01

Trees at timberline in the high Alps are exposed to a variety of climatic conditions. Most climatic stresses occur during winter and spring, when frost, occasionally low snow cover, and high irradiation interact. In this study, we follow reactions of photosynthesis from high winter to spring in two dominating tree species of the alpine timberline, which may indicate the status of stress response to a changing environment. The results indicate a level of physiological stability in trees, which are important for stabilising natural high mountain ecosystems. Trees of Pinus cembra and of Pinus mugo were selected at altitudes between 1850 m a.s.l. and 1950 m a.s.l. near innsbruck, Austria. At six sampling times from January to May, fast chlorophyll fluorescence was measured in the field and twigs were collected for further investigation in the laboratory. The following measurements were taken: photosynthetic oxygen formation, needle chlorophyll and carotenoid determination, and kinetic studies of the xanthophyll cycle. In general, both tree species showed similar results in most parameters studied. P. mugo seems to have some advantages if winter precipitation is high, when, because of its growth habitus, most needles will be snow covered. Primary photochemistry (trapping per reaction centre) in PS II does not change with sampling dates despite the fact that temperature and light are changing. However, first events in electron transport and whole needle photosynthesis are strongly affected by light and temperature conditions during the days before sampling. The kinetics of the xanthophyll cycle indicate not only light, but also strong temperature effects. P. mugo photosynthesis seems to have a higher stability under changing weather. Both tree species are well prepared to start with photosynthesis in winter, if favourable conditions, like foehn events, occur.

Rearrangement moves on rooted phylogenetic networks

PubMed Central

Gambette, Philippe; van Iersel, Leo; Jones, Mark; Scornavacca, Celine

2017-01-01

Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network—that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose “horizontal” moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and “vertical” moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves—named rNNI and rSPR—reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results—separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves—we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide a solid basis for practical phylogenetic network reconstruction. PMID:28763439

An overview of natural hazard impacts to railways and urban transportation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bíl, Michal; Nezval, Vojtěch; Bílová, Martina; Andrášik, Richard; Kubeček, Jan

2017-04-01

We present an overview and two case studies of natural hazard impacts on rail transportation systems in the Czech Republic. Flooding, landsliding, heavy snowfall, windstorms and glaze (black ice) are the most common natural processes which occur in this region. Whereas flooding and landsliding usually cause direct damage to the transportation infrastructure, other hazards predominantly cause indirect losses. Railway and urban tramline networks are almost fully dependent on electricity which is provided by a system of overhead lines (electric lines above the tracks). These lines are extremely susceptible to formation of glaze which blocks conduction of electric current. A December 2014 glaze event caused significant indirect losses in the largest Czech cities and railways due to the above-mentioned process. Details of this event will be provided during the presentation. Windstorms usually cause tree falls which can affect overhead lines and physically block railway tracks. Approximately 30 % of the Czech railway network is closer than 50 m from the nearest forest. This presents significant potential for transport interruption due to falling trees. Complicated legal relations among the owners of the plots of land along railways, the environment (full-grown trees and related habitat), and the railway administrator are behind many traffic interruptions due to falling trees. We have registered 2040 tree falls between 2012 and 2015 on the railway network. A model of the fallen tree hazard was created for the entire Czech railway network. Both above-mentioned case studies provide illustrative examples of the increased fragility of the modern transportation systems which fully rely on electricity. Natural processes with a low destructive power are thereby able to cause network wide service cut-offs.

Optimizing Use of Girdled Ash Trees for Management of Low-Density Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Populations.

PubMed

Siegert, Nathan W; McCullough, Deborah G; Poland, Therese M; Heyd, Robert L

2017-06-01

Effective survey methods to detect and monitor recently established, low-density infestations of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), remain a high priority because they provide land managers and property owners with time to implement tactics to slow emerald ash borer population growth and the progression of ash mortality. We evaluated options for using girdled ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees for emerald ash borer detection and management in a low-density infestation in a forested area with abundant green ash (F. pennsylvanica). Across replicated 4-ha plots, we compared detection efficiency of 4 versus 16 evenly distributed girdled ash trees and between clusters of 3 versus 12 girdled trees. We also examined within-tree larval distribution in 208 girdled and nongirdled trees and assessed adult emerald ash borer emergence from detection trees felled 11 mo after girdling and left on site. Overall, current-year larvae were present in 85-97% of girdled trees and 57-72% of nongirdled trees, and larval density was 2-5 times greater on girdled than nongirdled trees. Low-density emerald ash borer infestations were readily detected with four girdled trees per 4-ha, and 3-tree clusters were as effective as 12-tree clusters. Larval densities were greatest 0.5 ± 0.4 m below the base of the canopy in girdled trees and 1.3 ± 0.7 m above the canopy base in nongirdled trees. Relatively few adult emerald ash borer emerged from trees felled 11 mo after girdling and left on site through the following summer, suggesting removal or destruction of girdled ash trees may be unnecessary. This could potentially reduce survey costs, particularly in forested areas with poor accessibility. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Stacking transgenes in forest trees.

PubMed

Halpin, Claire; Boerjan, Wout

2003-08-01

Huge potential exists for improving plant raw materials and foodstuffs via metabolic engineering. To date, progress has mostly been limited to modulating the expression of single genes of well-studied pathways, such as the lignin biosynthetic pathway, in model species. However, a recent report illustrates a new level of sophistication in metabolic engineering by overexpressing one lignin enzyme while simultaneously suppressing the expression of another lignin gene in a tree, aspen. This novel approach to multi-gene manipulation has succeeded in concurrently improving several wood-quality traits.

Urban Tree Species Show the Same Hydraulic Response to Vapor Pressure Deficit across Varying Tree Size and Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Chen, Lixin; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ewers, Brent E.

2012-01-01

Background The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations. Methodology/Principal Findings We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP). The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1) the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2) the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree canopy transpiration amount (E c) was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G c at VPD = 1 kPa (G cref) and the G c sensitivity to VPD (−dG c/dlnVPD) across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R s conditions in the urban area. Conclusions/Significance We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G cref. PMID:23118904

Urban tree species show the same hydraulic response to vapor pressure deficit across varying tree size and environmental conditions.

PubMed

Chen, Lixin; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Ewers, Brent E

2012-01-01

The functional convergence of tree transpiration has rarely been tested for tree species growing under urban conditions even though it is of significance to elucidate the relationship between functional convergence and species differences of urban trees for establishing sustainable urban forests in the context of forest water relations. We measured sap flux of four urban tree species including Cedrus deodara, Zelkova schneideriana, Euonymus bungeanus and Metasequoia glyptostroboides in an urban park by using thermal dissipation probes (TDP). The concurrent microclimate conditions and soil moisture content were also measured. Our objectives were to examine 1) the influence of tree species and size on transpiration, and 2) the hydraulic control of urban trees under different environmental conditions over the transpiration in response to VPD as represented by canopy conductance. The results showed that the functional convergence between tree diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree canopy transpiration amount (E(c)) was not reliable to predict stand transpiration and there were species differences within same DBH class. Species differed in transpiration patterns to seasonal weather progression and soil water stress as a result of varied sensitivity to water availability. Species differences were also found in their potential maximum transpiration rate and reaction to light. However, a same theoretical hydraulic relationship between G(c) at VPD = 1 kPa (G(cref)) and the G(c) sensitivity to VPD (-dG(c)/dlnVPD) across studied species as well as under contrasting soil water and R(s) conditions in the urban area. We concluded that urban trees show the same hydraulic regulation over response to VPD across varying tree size and environmental conditions and thus tree transpiration could be predicted with appropriate assessment of G(cref).

Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine ( Pinus elliottii var. densa ) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

DOE PAGES

Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; ...

2010-01-01

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated withmore » tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.« less

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

Usefulness of Coronary Atheroma Burden to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

PubMed

Shan, Peiren; Mintz, Gary S; McPherson, John A; De Bruyne, Bernard; Farhat, Naim Z; Marso, Steven P; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W; Maehara, Akiko

2015-12-01

We investigated the relation between overall atheroma burden and clinical events in the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study. In PROSPECT, 660 patients (3,229 nonculprit lesions with a plaque burden ≥ 40% and complete intravascular ultrasound data) were divided into tertiles according to baseline percent atheroma volume (PAV: total plaque/vessel volume). Patients were followed for 3.4 years (median); major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death from cardiac causes, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or rehospitalization because of unstable or progressive angina) were adjudicated to either culprit or nonculprit lesions. Compared with patients in low or intermediate PAV tertiles, patients in the high PAV tertile had the greatest prevalence of plaque rupture and radiofrequency thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA) and the highest percentage of necrotic core volume; they were also more likely to have high-risk lesion characteristics: ≥ 1 lesion with minimal luminal area ≤ 4 mm(2), plaque burden >70%, and/or VH-TCFA. Three-year cumulative nonculprit lesion-related MACE was greater in the intermediate and high tertiles than in the low tertile (6.3% vs 14.7% vs 15.1%, low vs intermediate vs high tertiles, p = 0.009). On Cox multivariable analysis, insulin-dependent diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98, p = 0.002), PAV (HR 1.06, p = 0.03), and the presence of ≥1 VH-TCFA (HR 1.80, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, increasing baseline overall atheroma burden was associated with more advanced, complex, and vulnerable intravascular ultrasound lesion morphology and independently predicted nonculprit lesion-related MACE in patients with acute coronary syndromes after successful culprit lesion intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forest - water dynamics in a Mediterranean mountain environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliades, Marinos; Bruggeman, Adriana; Lange, Manfred; Camera, Corrado; Christou, Andreas

2015-04-01

In semi-arid Mediterranean mountain environments, the soil layer is very shallow or even absent due to the steep slopes. Soil moisture in these environments is limited, but still vegetation thrives. There is limited knowledge about where the vegetation extracts the water from, how much water it uses, and how it interacts with other processes in the hydrological cycle. The main objective of this study is to quantify the water balance components of a Pinus brutia forest at tree level, by measuring the tree transpiration and the redistribution of the water from trees to the soil and the bedrock fractures. The study area is located on a forested hill slope on the outside edge of Peristerona watershed in Cyprus. The site was mapped with the use of a total station and a differentially-corrected GPS, in order to create a high resolution DEM and soil depth map of the area. Soil depth was measured at a 1-m grid around the trees. Biometric measurements were taken from a total of 45 trees. Four trees were selected for monitoring. Six sap flow sensors are installed in the selected trees for measuring transpiration and reverse flows. Two trees have two sensors each to assess the variability. Four volumetric soil moisture sensors are installed around each tree at distances 1 m and 2 m away from the tree trunk. An additional fifth soil moisture sensor is installed in soil depths exceeding 20-cm depth. Four throughfall rain gauges were installed randomly around each tree to compute interception losses. Stemflow is measured by connecting an opened surface plastic tube collar at 1.6 m height around each tree trunk. The trunk surface gaps were filled with silicon glue in order to avoid any stemflow losses. The plastic collar is connected to a sealed surface rain gauge. A weather station monitors all meteorological variables on an hourly basis. Results showed a maximum sap flow volume of 77.9 L/d, from November to January. The sensors also measured a maximum negative flow of 7.9 L/d, indicating reverse flow. Soil moisture ranged between 10 to 37 % at all sensors. Soil moisture contents showed an increase over 100% after rainfall events, but decreased quickly. Also individual sensor peak values were recorded when rainfall was not occurring, indicating soil moisture increase as a result of reverse flow. Interception losses revealed values, ranging from 10% to 50 % of the total rainfall. Stem flow was recorded after intense rain fall events. To our knowledge, this is the first water use quantification study for Pinus brutia trees. The negative sap flow implies that these trees have the ability to harvest water from the air moisture and redistribute it in the ground. Perhaps part of the intercepted water is captured by the tree and thus contributing to the negative sap flow. All the variables will be monitored for two more years to quantify the role of the trees in the water balance of the area.

Ecosystem development on terraces along the Kugururok River, northwest Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Binkley, Dan; Suarez, F.; Stottlemyer, R.; Caldwell, B.

1997-01-01

Riverside terraces along the Kugururok River in the Noatak National Preserve provided an opportunity to study primary succession, considering general trends that apply across all terraces, and unique events that influence individual terraces. The 30-year-old willow/poplar (Salix spp., Populus balsamifera L.) terrace had no trees taller than 1.5 m; the abundant spruce trees were not tall enough to emerge from the canopy height of the willows and poplars, and moose (Alces alces [Clinton]) browsing limited the canopy height of these plants. The 75-year-old poplar/spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) terrace had a high density of poplars (> 1000/ha) and low density of spruce (125/ha); heavy browsing by moose reduced the density of poplar by about one-half. The removal of the poplar by moose in this stand resulted in sustained increases in growth of individual spruce trees. The 100-year-old younger spruce/poplar terrace had about twice as many spruce trees (1250/ha) as poplar trees (500/ha), and the spruce trees were larger on average than the poplar trees. In the 220+ year-old older spruce/poplar type, only a few poplars remained (about 25/ha), and the number of spruce trees (600/ha) was only half that of the younger stage, either from lower initial spruce density on this terrace, or increased mortality of spruce. The 240+ year-old spruce type was a second-generation forest, characterized by a high density (1950/ha) of small spruce trees, some of which were tilted, indicating discontinuous permafrost. Plant litterfall mass showed no strong trend with terrace age, although N content of litterfall appeared to decline by about 1/3 in the spruce-dominated stages. Fungal biomass increased with ecosystem age, whereas bacterial biomass and microfauna declined. We found no evidence of declining soil N supply in older stages, but fertilization experiments would be needed to determine if N limitation of productivity changed with ecosystem development. We conclude that the general successional trend of increased spruce dominance is robust for this location, but that unique events play important roles in determining tree densities and the timing of the shift in dominance from poplar to spruce. The arrival of moose in the 1970s accelerated dominance by spruce on young terraces.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America.

PubMed

Stevens, Jens T; Safford, Hugh D; North, Malcolm P; Fried, Jeremy S; Gray, Andrew N; Brown, Peter M; Dolanc, Christopher R; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Falk, Donald A; Farris, Calvin A; Franklin, Jerry F; Fulé, Peter Z; Hagmann, R Keala; Knapp, Eric E; Miller, Jay D; Smith, Douglas F; Swetnam, Thomas W; Taylor, Alan H

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the "stand age" variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical "mixed-severity" fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America

PubMed Central

Stevens, Jens T.; Safford, Hugh D.; North, Malcolm P.; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gray, Andrew N.; Brown, Peter M.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Falk, Donald A.; Farris, Calvin A.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Hagmann, R. Keala; Knapp, Eric E.; Miller, Jay D.; Smith, Douglas F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Taylor, Alan H.

2016-01-01

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the “stand age” variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical “mixed-severity” fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data. PMID:27196621

Associations of Coffee, Tea, and Caffeine Intake with Coronary Artery Calcification and Cardiovascular Events.

PubMed

Miller, P Elliott; Zhao, Di; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C; Michos, Erin D; Averill, Michelle; Sandfort, Veit; Burke, Gregory L; Polak, Joseph F; Lima, Joao A C; Post, Wendy S; Blumenthal, Roger S; Guallar, Eliseo; Martin, Seth S

2017-02-01

Coffee and tea are 2 of the most commonly consumed beverages in the world. The association of coffee and tea intake with coronary artery calcium and major adverse cardiovascular events remains uncertain. We examined 6508 ethnically diverse participants with available coffee and tea data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Intake for each was classified as never, occasional (<1 cup per day), and regular (≥1 cup per day). A coronary artery calcium progression ratio was derived from mixed effect regression models using loge(calcium score+1) as the outcome, with coefficients exponentiated to reflect coronary artery calcium progression ratio versus the reference. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate the association between beverage intake and incident cardiovascular events. Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years for coronary artery calcium and 11.1 years for cardiovascular events, participants who regularly drank tea (≥1 cup per day) had a slower progression of coronary artery calcium compared with never drinkers after multivariable adjustment. This correlated with a statistically significant lower incidence of cardiovascular events for ≥1 cup per day tea drinkers (adjusted hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.95). Compared with never coffee drinkers, regular coffee intake (≥1 cup per day) was not statistically associated with coronary artery calcium progression or cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97; 95% confidence interval 0.78-1.20). Caffeine intake was marginally inversely associated with coronary artery calcium progression. Moderate tea drinkers had slower progression of coronary artery calcium and reduced risk for cardiovascular events. Future research is needed to understand the potentially protective nature of moderate tea intake. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Associations between Coffee, Tea, and Caffeine Intake with Coronary Artery Calcification and Cardiovascular Events

PubMed Central

Miller, P. Elliott; Zhao, Di; Frazier-Wood, Alexis C.; Michos, Erin D.; Averill, Michelle; Sandfort, Veit; Burke, Gregory L.; Polak, Joseph F.; Lima, Joao A.C.; Post, Wendy S.; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Guallar, Eliseo; Martin, Seth S.

2016-01-01

Background Coffee and tea are two of the most commonly consumed beverages in the world. The association of coffee and tea intake with coronary artery calcium and major adverse cardiovascular events remains uncertain. Methods We examined 6,508 ethnically-diverse participants with available coffee and tea data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Intake for each was classified as never, occasional (<1 cup/day), and regular (≥1 cup/day). A coronary artery calcium progression ratio was derived from mixed effect regression models using loge(calcium score+1) as the outcome with coefficients exponentiated to reflect coronary artery calcium progression ratio vs. the reference. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate the association between beverage intake and incident cardiovascular events. Results Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years for coronary artery calcium and 11.1 years for cardiovascular events, participants who regularly drank tea (≥1 cup/day) had a slower progression of coronary artery calcium compared with never drinkers after multivariable adjustment. This correlated with a statistically significant lower incidence of cardiovascular events for ≥1 cup/day tea drinkers (adjusted HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.53–0.95). Compared to never coffee drinkers, regular coffee intake (≥1 cup/day) was not statistically associated with coronary artery calcium progression or cardiovascular events (adjusted HR 0.97 [0.78, 1.20]). Caffeine intake was marginally inversely associated with coronary artery calcium progression. Conclusions Moderate tea drinkers had slower progression of coronary artery calcium and reduced risk for cardiovascular events. Future research is needed to understand the potentially protective nature of moderate tea intake. PMID:27640739

The canopy interception-landslide initiation conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidle, Roy C.; Ziegler, Alan D.

2017-01-01

The interception and smoothing effect of forest canopies on pulses of incident rainfall and its delivery to the soil has been suggested as a factor in moderating peak pore water pressure in soil mantles, thus reducing the risk of shallow landslides. Here we provide 3 years of rainfall and throughfall data in a tropical secondary dipterocarp forest characterized by few large trees in northern Thailand, along with selected soil moisture dynamics, to address this issue. Throughfall was an estimated 88 % of rainfall, varying from 86 to 90 % in individual years. Data from 167 events demonstrate that canopy interception was only weakly associated (via a nonlinear relationship) with total event rainfall, but not significantly correlated with duration, mean intensity, or antecedent 2-day precipitation (API2). Mean interception during small events (≤ 35 mm) was 17 % (n = 135 events) compared with only 7 % for large events (> 35 mm; n = 32). Examining small temporal intervals within the largest and highest intensity events that would potentially trigger landslides revealed complex patterns of interception. The tropical forest canopy had little smoothing effect on incident rainfall during the largest events. During events with high peak intensities, high wind speeds, and/or moderate-to-high pre-event wetting, measured throughfall was occasionally higher than rainfall during large event peaks, demonstrating limited buffering. However, in events with little wetting and low-to-moderate wind speed, early event rainfall peaks were buffered by the canopy. As rainfall continued during most large events, there was little difference between rainfall and throughfall depths. A comparison of both rainfall and throughfall depths to conservative mean intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation revealed that throughfall exceeded the threshold in 75 % of the events in which rainfall exceeded the threshold for both wet and dry conditions. Throughfall intensity for the 11 largest events (rainfall = 65-116 mm) plotted near or above the intensity-duration threshold for landslide initiation during wet conditions; 5 of the events were near or above the threshold for dry conditions. Soil moisture responses during large events were heavily and progressively buffered at depths of 1 to 2 m, indicating that the timescale of any short-term smoothing of peak rainfall inputs (i.e., ≤ 1 h) has little influence on peak pore water pressure at depths where landslides would initiate in this area. Given these findings, we conclude that canopy interception would have little effect on mitigating shallow landslide initiation during the types of monsoon rainfall conditions in this and similar tropical secondary forest sites.

In Forests Globally, Large Trees Suffer Most during Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A. C.; McDowell, N. G.; Allen, C. D.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2014-12-01

Globally, drought events are increasing in both frequency and intensity. Spatial and temporal variation in water availability is expected to alter the ecophysiology and structure of forests, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. Extensive tree mortality induced by heat and aridity has been documented across a range of latitudes, and several global vegetation models have simulated widespread forest die-off in the future. The impact of drought on forest structure and function will depend on the differential responses of trees of different sizes. Understanding the size-dependence of drought-induced mortality is necessary to predict local and global impacts. Here we show that in forests worldwide, drought has a greater impact on the growth and mortality of large trees compared to smaller trees. This trend holds true for forests ranging from semiarid woodlands to tropical rainforests. This finding contrasts with what would be expected if deep root access to water were the primary determinant of tree drought response. Rather, the greater drought response of larger trees could be driven by greater inherent vulnerability of large trees to hydraulic stress or by canopy position becoming more of a liability under drought, as exposed crowns face higher evaporative demand. These findings imply that future droughts will have a disproportionate effect on large trees, resulting in a larger feedback to climate change than would occur if all tree size classes were equally affected by drought.

Evolution of trees and mycorrhizal fungi intensifies silicate mineral weathering.

PubMed

Quirk, Joe; Beerling, David J; Banwart, Steve A; Kakonyi, Gabriella; Romero-Gonzalez, Maria E; Leake, Jonathan R

2012-12-23

Forested ecosystems diversified more than 350 Ma to become major engines of continental silicate weathering, regulating the Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by driving calcium export into ocean carbonates. Our field experiments with mature trees demonstrate intensification of this weathering engine as tree lineages diversified in concert with their symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi. Preferential hyphal colonization of the calcium silicate-bearing rock, basalt, progressively increased with advancement from arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) to later, independently evolved ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi, and from gymnosperm to angiosperm hosts with both fungal groups. This led to 'trenching' of silicate mineral surfaces by AM and EM fungi, with EM gymnosperms and angiosperms releasing calcium from basalt at twice the rate of AM gymnosperms. Our findings indicate mycorrhiza-driven weathering may have originated hundreds of millions of years earlier than previously recognized and subsequently intensified with the evolution of trees and mycorrhizas to affect the Earth's long-term CO(2) and climate history.

Genome-wide SNP data suggest complex ancestry of sympatric North Pacific killer whale ecotypes

PubMed Central

Foote, A D; Morin, P A

2016-01-01

Three ecotypes of killer whale occur in partial sympatry in the North Pacific. Individuals assortatively mate within the same ecotype, resulting in correlated ecological and genetic differentiation. A key question is whether this pattern of evolutionary divergence is an example of incipient sympatric speciation from a single panmictic ancestral population, or whether sympatry could have resulted from multiple colonisations of the North Pacific and secondary contact between ecotypes. Here, we infer multilocus coalescent trees from >1000 nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and find evidence of incomplete lineage sorting so that the genealogies of SNPs do not all conform to a single topology. To disentangle whether uncertainty in the phylogenetic inference of the relationships among ecotypes could also result from ancestral admixture events we reconstructed the relationship among the ecotypes as an admixture graph and estimated f4-statistics using TreeMix. The results were consistent with episodes of admixture between two of the North Pacific ecotypes and the two outgroups (populations from the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic). Gene flow may have occurred via unsampled ‘ghost' populations rather than directly between the populations sampled here. Our results indicate that because of ancestral admixture events and incomplete lineage sorting, a single bifurcating tree does not fully describe the relationship among these populations. The data are therefore most consistent with the genomic variation among North Pacific killer whale ecotypes resulting from multiple colonisation events, and secondary contact may have facilitated evolutionary divergence. Thus, the present-day populations of North Pacific killer whale ecotypes have a complex ancestry, confounding the tree-based inference of ancestral geography. PMID:27485668

Changes in the distribution of mechanically dependent plants along a gradient of past hurricane impact

PubMed Central

Batke, Sven P.; Kelly, Daniel L.

2015-01-01

The severity of the effects that large disturbance events such as hurricanes can have on the forest canopy and the associated mechanically dependent plant community (epiphytes, climbers, etc.) is dependent on the frequency and intensity of the disturbance events. Here we investigate the effects of different structural and environmental properties of the host trees and previously modelled past hurricanes on dependent plants in Cusuco National Park, Honduras. Tree-climbing methods were employed to sample different dependent life-forms in ten 150 × 150 m plots. We identified 7094 individuals of dependent plants from 214 different species. For holo- and hemi-epiphytes, we found that diversity was significantly negatively related to past hurricane impact. The abundance of dependent plants was greatly influenced by their position in tree canopy and hurricane disturbance regimes. The relationship between abundance and mean branch height shifts across a gradient of hurricane impact (from negative to positive), which might result from a combination of changes in abundance of individual species and composition of the dependent flora across sites. Mechanically dependent plants also responded to different structural and environmental conditions along individual branches. The variables that explained much of the community differences of life-forms and families among branches were branch surface area and bryophyte cover. The factors that explained most variation at a plot level were mean vapour pressure deficit and elevation. At the level of the individual tree, the most important factors were canopy openness and past hurricane impact. We believe that more emphasis needs to be placed on the effects that past disturbance events have on mechanically dependent plant communities, particularly in areas that are prone to catastrophic perturbations. PMID:26286220

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Treelink: data integration, clustering and visualization of phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Allende, Christian; Sohn, Erik; Little, Cedric

2015-12-29

Phylogenetic trees are central to a wide range of biological studies. In many of these studies, tree nodes need to be associated with a variety of attributes. For example, in studies concerned with viral relationships, tree nodes are associated with epidemiological information, such as location, age and subtype. Gene trees used in comparative genomics are usually linked with taxonomic information, such as functional annotations and events. A wide variety of tree visualization and annotation tools have been developed in the past, however none of them are intended for an integrative and comparative analysis. Treelink is a platform-independent software for linking datasets and sequence files to phylogenetic trees. The application allows an automated integration of datasets to trees for operations such as classifying a tree based on a field or showing the distribution of selected data attributes in branches and leafs. Genomic and proteonomic sequences can also be linked to the tree and extracted from internal and external nodes. A novel clustering algorithm to simplify trees and display the most divergent clades was also developed, where validation can be achieved using the data integration and classification function. Integrated geographical information allows ancestral character reconstruction for phylogeographic plotting based on parsimony and likelihood algorithms. Our software can successfully integrate phylogenetic trees with different data sources, and perform operations to differentiate and visualize those differences within a tree. File support includes the most popular formats such as newick and csv. Exporting visualizations as images, cluster outputs and genomic sequences is supported. Treelink is available as a web and desktop application at http://www.treelinkapp.com .

Coronal Mass Ejection Data Clustering and Visualization of Decision Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ruizhe; Angryk, Rafal A.; Riley, Pete; Filali Boubrahimi, Soukaina

2018-05-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be categorized as either “magnetic clouds” (MCs) or non-MCs. Features such as a large magnetic field, low plasma-beta, and low proton temperature suggest that a CME event is also an MC event; however, so far there is neither a definitive method nor an automatic process to distinguish the two. Human labeling is time-consuming, and results can fluctuate owing to the imprecise definition of such events. In this study, we approach the problem of MC and non-MC distinction from a time series data analysis perspective and show how clustering can shed some light on this problem. Although many algorithms exist for traditional data clustering in the Euclidean space, they are not well suited for time series data. Problems such as inadequate distance measure, inaccurate cluster center description, and lack of intuitive cluster representations need to be addressed for effective time series clustering. Our data analysis in this work is twofold: clustering and visualization. For clustering we compared the results from the popular hierarchical agglomerative clustering technique to a distance density clustering heuristic we developed previously for time series data clustering. In both cases, dynamic time warping will be used for similarity measure. For classification as well as visualization, we use decision trees to aggregate single-dimensional clustering results to form a multidimensional time series decision tree, with averaged time series to present each decision. In this study, we achieved modest accuracy and, more importantly, an intuitive interpretation of how different parameters contribute to an MC event.

Recent events dominate interdomain lateral gene transfers between prokaryotes and eukaryotes and, with the exception of endosymbiotic gene transfers, few ancient transfer events persist

PubMed Central

Katz, Laura A.

2015-01-01

While there is compelling evidence for the impact of endosymbiotic gene transfer (EGT; transfer from either mitochondrion or chloroplast to the nucleus) on genome evolution in eukaryotes, the role of interdomain transfer from bacteria and/or archaea (i.e. prokaryotes) is less clear. Lateral gene transfers (LGTs) have been argued to be potential sources of phylogenetic information, particularly for reconstructing deep nodes that are difficult to recover with traditional phylogenetic methods. We sought to identify interdomain LGTs by using a phylogenomic pipeline that generated 13 465 single gene trees and included up to 487 eukaryotes, 303 bacteria and 118 archaea. Our goals include searching for LGTs that unite major eukaryotic clades, and describing the relative contributions of LGT and EGT across the eukaryotic tree of life. Given the difficulties in interpreting single gene trees that aim to capture the approximately 1.8 billion years of eukaryotic evolution, we focus on presence–absence data to identify interdomain transfer events. Specifically, we identify 1138 genes found only in prokaryotes and representatives of three or fewer major clades of eukaryotes (e.g. Amoebozoa, Archaeplastida, Excavata, Opisthokonta, SAR and orphan lineages). The majority of these genes have phylogenetic patterns that are consistent with recent interdomain LGTs and, with the notable exception of EGTs involving photosynthetic eukaryotes, we detect few ancient interdomain LGTs. These analyses suggest that LGTs have probably occurred throughout the history of eukaryotes, but that ancient events are not maintained unless they are associated with endosymbiotic gene transfer among photosynthetic lineages. PMID:26323756

Origin and Possible Genetic Recombination of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus from the First Imported Case in China: Phylogenetics and Coalescence Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Yanqun; Liu, Di; Shi, Weifeng; Lu, Roujian; Wang, Wenling; Zhao, Yanjie; Deng, Yao; Zhou, Weimin; Ren, Hongguang; Wu, Jun; Wang, Yu; Wu, Guizhen; Gao, George F; Tan, Wenjie

2015-09-08

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes a severe acute respiratory tract infection with a high fatality rate in humans. Coronaviruses are capable of infecting multiple species and can evolve rapidly through recombination events. Here, we report the complete genomic sequence analysis of a MERS-CoV strain imported to China from South Korea. The imported virus, provisionally named ChinaGD01, belongs to group 3 in clade B in the whole-genome phylogenetic tree and also has a similar tree topology structure in the open reading frame 1a and -b (ORF1ab) gene segment but clusters with group 5 of clade B in the tree constructed using the S gene. Genetic recombination analysis and lineage-specific single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) comparison suggest that the imported virus is a recombinant comprising group 3 and group 5 elements. The time-resolved phylogenetic estimation indicates that the recombination event likely occurred in the second half of 2014. Genetic recombination events between group 3 and group 5 of clade B may have implications for the transmissibility of the virus. The recent outbreak of MERS-CoV in South Korea has attracted global media attention due to the speed of spread and onward transmission. Here, we present the complete genome of the first imported MERS-CoV case in China and demonstrate genetic recombination events between group 3 and group 5 of clade B that may have implications for the transmissibility of MERS-CoV. Copyright © 2015 Wang et al.

Growth Response of Pinus ponderosa following a Mixed-Severity Wildfire in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Tara keyser; Fredrick Smith; Wayne Sheppard

2010-01-01

In late summer 2000 the Jasper Fire burned ~34,000 ha of ponderosa pine forest in the Black Hills of South Dakota. Although regarded as a catastrophic event, the Jasper Fire left a mosaic of fire severity across the landscape, with live trees present in areas burned under low and moderate fire severity. In October 2005, we cored 96 trees from unburned, low-severity,...

Enhancing the Possibility of Success by Measuring the Probability of Failure in an Educational Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brookhart, Susan M.; And Others

1997-01-01

Process Analysis is described as a method for identifying and measuring the probability of events that could cause the failure of a program, resulting in a cause-and-effect tree structure of events. The method is illustrated through the evaluation of a pilot instructional program at an elementary school. (SLD)

Transgenic poplars with reduced lignin show impaired xylem conductivity, growth efficiency and survival

Treesearch

Steven L. Voelker; Barbara Lachenbruch; Frederick C. Meinzer; Peter Kitin; Steven H. Strauss

2011-01-01

We studied xylem anatomy and hydraulic architecture in 14 transgenic insertion events and a control line of hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) that varied in lignin content. Transgenic events had different levels of down-regulation of two genes encoding 4-coumarate:coenzyme A ligase (4CL). Two-year-old trees were characterized after...

The relation between tree burn severity and forest structure in the Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Theresa B. Jain; Russell T. Graham

2007-01-01

Many wildfire events have burned thousands of hectares across the western United States, such as the Bitterroot (Montana), Rodeo-Chediski (Arizona), Hayman (Colorado), and Biscuit (Oregon) fires. These events led to Congress enacting the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, which, with other policies, encourages federal and state agencies to decrease wildfire risks...

Individual Tree Crown Delineation Using Multi-Wavelength Titan LIDAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naveed, F.; Hu, B.

2017-10-01

The inability to detect the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) at an early stage has led to the enumerable loss of different species of ash trees. Due to the increasing risk being posed by the EAB, a robust and accurate method is needed for identifying Individual Tree Crowns (ITCs) that are at a risk of being infected or are already diseased. This paper attempts to outline an ITC delineation method that employs airborne multi-spectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to accurately delineate tree crowns. The raw LiDAR data were initially pre-processed to generate the Digital Surface Models (DSM) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) using an iterative progressive TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network) densification method. The DSM and DEM were consequently used for Canopy Height Model (CHM) generation, from which the structural information pertaining to the size and shape of the tree crowns was obtained. The structural information along with the spectral information was used to segment ITCs using a region growing algorithm. The availability of the multi-spectral LiDAR data allows for delineation of crowns that have otherwise homogenous structural characteristics and hence cannot be isolated from the CHM alone. This study exploits the spectral data to derive initial approximations of individual tree tops and consequently grow those regions based on the spectral constraints of the individual trees.

Initial period of sexual maturity determines the greater growth rate of male over female in the dioecious tree Juniperus communis subsp. communis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iszkuło, Grzegorz; Boratyński, Adam

2011-03-01

Dioecious species are a very interesting object of study because of predicted differences between male and female individuals. Most dioecious species have a higher reproductive effort in female individuals in comparison with males. The object of this study was common juniper ( Juniperus communis subsp. communis), dioecious shrubs or small trees. This study examined differences in radial growth rate between male and female individuals and the effect of climatic factors on tree-ring width in this species. Wood samples were taken from 30 trees (15 females and 15 males) and subjected to the standard procedure of dendrochronological dating. Females had lower growth rates than males after the age of 17 years. The greatest differences between genders in growth rate were observed between 17 and 25 years. After 26 years, male tree-rings were still wider, but the differences were much smaller. The differentiation of tree-ring width between males and females probably started when the female trees reached sexual maturity and started to produce seed cones. Differences between sexes in tree-ring width were noticed also in their reaction to climatic conditions. When compared to males, female individuals tended to be more sensitive to low temperature and low precipitation. This sensitivity of dioecious species could be one reason for their greater susceptibility to extinction in times of progressive climatic changes.

Field note: irrigation of tree stands with groundwater containing 1,4-dioxane.

PubMed

Ferro, Ari M; Tammi, Carl E

2009-07-01

Coniferous and deciduous tree stands totaling 14 ha were recently planted on a closed landfill, and when mature, the stands are expected to be part of a natural treatment system for recovered groundwater. The trees would be irrigated at the rate of 189 L/min year-round with water containing 1,4-dioxane (< 10 mg/L), a compound that would be taken up and phytovolatilized by the trees. The water is moderately saline and contains elevated levels of manganese. This paper describes a concurrent series of preliminary studies, performed prior to the full-scale planting, to assess the feasibility of the phytoremediation system. Greenhouse experiments were carried out to identify tree species that can take up 1,4-dioxane and are tolerant of the water. Estimates were made of the area of the tree stand necessary to transpire the irrigation water plus precipitation. The landfill matrix was characterized in terms of its percolation rate and water holding capacity and based on those results salinity-modeling studies were carried out to estimate the fate and leaching potential of the various inorganic species that would accumulate in the root-zone of the trees. A pilot study, currently in progress on the landfill, suggested that the landfill cap is a suitable matrix for the establishment of large trees, and that the stands could be irrigated without the production of excess drainage.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strauss, Steve; Shevchenko, Olga; Ma, Caiping

The overall goal of this project was to develop and validate sterility systems in poplar with the ultimate goal of fulfilling the basic requirements for commercial use. For this, sterility must be complete and stable over multiple growing seasons, cause no detrimental effects on vegetative growth, and successful transformation events must be identifiable via molecular tests when trees are still juvenile. Because of the inherent difficulties in achieving and demonstrating complete sterility in trees, our approach was to study alternate sterility systems in Arabidopsis and/or early-flowering tree systems. The public benefit from this work is the capacity for containment ofmore » genes or exotic forms of trees so they can be of benefit for industry for production of wood, energy, and renewable products, while having minimal impact on wild populations of trees. We tested three methods for engineering sterility: dominant negative mutant (DNM) proteins, floral tissue ablation, and RNA interference (RNAi) to suppress the expression of several floral regulatory genes. The ultimate goal of this work was to produce a number of transgenic poplars that could be outplanted to enable future assessments of the effectiveness of these transgenic sterility methods. Our attempts to produce ablation constructs that did not interfere with tree health were partially successful. Using the poplar LEAFY gene promoter and the barnase/barstar system, we were able to regenerate plants that grew well in the greenhouse, but they showed poor health in the field. Four of seven DNM genes tested were considered promising enough, based on results in Arabidopsis, to produce transgenic poplars. Single, double, and triple RNAi genes were produced and transformed into poplar. Over all, we produced 1,964 PCR-confirmed transgenic events with 19 different kinds of sterility genes and several kinds of control genes. We propagated 5,640, 6,820, and 7,055 trees for each of three test poplar genotypes, and field plantings were begun in Spring of 2003 and will be finished in Spring 2007. Continued field studies and monitoring will be required to establish if any of the approaches we have taken will prove to be safe for tree health, stable, and provide reliable containment.« less

Formulaic expert method to integrate evaluation and valuation of heritage trees in compact city.

PubMed

Jim, C Y

2006-05-01

Urban trees serve important environmental, social and economic functions, but similar to other natural endowments they are not customarily depicted in monetary terms. The needs to augment protection, funding and community support for urban greening call for proper valuation. Heritage trees (HTs), the cream of urban-tree stock, deserve special attention. Existing assessment methods do not give justice to outstanding trees in compact cities deficient in high-caliber greenery, and to their social-cultural-historical importance. They artificially separate evaluation from valuation, which should be a natural progression from the former. Review of tree valuation methods suggested the formula approach to be more suitable than contingent valuation and hedonic pricing, and provided hints on their strengths and weaknesses. This study develops an alternative formulaic expert method (FEM) that integrates evaluation and valuation, maximizes objectivity, broadly encompasses the key tree, tree-environment and tree-human traits, and accords realistic monetary value to HTs. Six primary criteria (dimension, species, tree, condition, location, and outstanding consideration) branched into 45 secondary criteria, each allocated numerical marks. Each primary criterion was standardized to carry equal weight, and a tree's maximum aggregate score is capped at 100. A Monetary Assignment Factor (MAF) to consign dollar value to each score unit was derived from three-year average per m(2) sale price of medium-sized residential flats. The applicability of FEM was tested on selected HTs in compact Hong Kong. The aggregate score of a tree multiplied by MAF yielded monetary value, which was on average 66 times higher than the result from the commonly-adopted Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers method. The computed tree values could be publicized together with multiple tree benefits to raise understanding and awareness and rally support to protect HTs. The property-linked FEM could be flexibly applied to other cities, especially to assess HTs in compact developing cities.

Multi-locus phylogeny and divergence time estimates of Enallagma damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

PubMed

Callahan, Melissa S; McPeek, Mark A

2016-01-01

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns of species and populations provides a framework for asking questions about the impacts of climate change. Here we use a multilocus dataset to estimate gene trees under maximum likelihood and Bayesian models to obtain a robust estimate of relationships for a genus of North American damselflies, Enallagma. Using a relaxed molecular clock, we estimate the divergence times for this group. Furthermore, to account for the fact that gene tree analyses can overestimate ages of population divergences, we use a multi-population coalescent model to gain a more accurate estimate of divergence times. We also infer diversification rates using a method that allows for variation in diversification rate through time and among lineages. Our results reveal a complex evolutionary history of Enallagma, in which divergence events both predate and occur during Pleistocene climate fluctuations. There is also evidence of diversification rate heterogeneity across the tree. These divergence time estimates provide a foundation for addressing the relative significance of historical climatic events in the diversification of this genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unconsidered sporadic sources of carbon dioxide emission from soils in taiga forests.

PubMed

Karelin, D V; Zamolodchikov, D G; Isaev, A S

2017-07-01

Long-term monitoring in the Russian taiga zone has shown that all known extreme destructive effects resulting in the weakening and death of tree stands (windfalls, pest attacks, drought events, etc.) can be sporadic, but significant sources of CO 2 soil emission. Among them are (i) a recently found effect of the multiyear CO 2 emission from soil at the bottom of deadwood of spruce trees that died due to climate warming and subsequent pest outbreaks, (ii) increased soil CO 2 emissions due to to the fall of tree trunks during massive windfalls, and (iii) pulse CO 2 emission as a result of the so-called Birch effect after drought events in the taiga zone. According to the modeling, while depending on the spatial and temporal scales of their manifestation, the impact of these sporadic effects on the regional and global soil respiration fluxes could be significant and should be taken into consideration. This is due to continuing Climate Change, and further increase of local, regional and Global human impacts on the atmospheric greenhouse gases balance, and land use, as well.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Master Logic Diagram: method for hazard and initiating event identification in process plants.

PubMed

Papazoglou, I A; Aneziris, O N

2003-02-28

Master Logic Diagram (MLD), a method for identifying events initiating accidents in chemical installations, is presented. MLD is a logic diagram that resembles a fault tree but without the formal mathematical properties of the latter. MLD starts with a Top Event "Loss of Containment" and decomposes it into simpler contributing events. A generic MLD has been developed which may be applied to all chemical installations storing toxic and/or flammable substances. The method is exemplified through its application to an ammonia storage facility.

Frost monitoring of fruit tree with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Jinlong; Zhang, Mingwei; Cao, Guangzheng; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Liu, Chenchen; Niu, Xinzan; Xu, Wengbo

2012-09-01

The orchards are developing very fast in the northern China in recent years with the increasing demands on fruits in China. In most parts of the northern China, the risk of frost damage to fruit tree in early spring is potentially high under the background of global warming. The growing season comes earlier than it does in normal year due to the warm weather in earlier spring and the risk will be higher in this case. According to the reports, frost event in spring happens almost every year in Ningxia Region, China. In bad cases, late frosts in spring can be devastating all fruit. So lots of attention has been given to the study in monitoring, evaluating, preventing and mitigating frost. Two orchards in Ningxia, Taole and Jiaozishan orchards were selected as the study areas. MODIS data were used to monitor frost events in combination with minimum air temperature recorded at weather station. The paper presents the findings. The very good correlation was found between MODIS LST and minimum air temperature in Ningxia. Light, middle and severe frosts were captured in the study area by MODIS LST. The MODIS LST shows the spatial differences of temperature in the orchards. 10 frost events in April from 2000 to 2010 were captured by the satellite data. The monitoring information may be hours ahead circulated to the fruit farmers to prevent the damage and loss of fruit trees.

Need and prospects for using tracer techniques in fruit breeding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zagaja, S.W.

1975-01-01

Compared with staple food crops and fodder crops, the commercial value of fruits depends more on their quality than on their productivity. Modified screening techniques are therefore required for fruit crop improvement. The following are areas of fruit crop improvement in which tracer techniques could be used to speed up the progress: assessment of rootstocks and particularly their effect on vigour of growth and productivity of the trees; assessment of mutants productivity; assessment of adaptability to various habitats of fruit tree cultivars and rootstocks; and juvenility studies on fruit trees, aimed at shortening the juvenile stage. On each of thesemore » subjects background information is provided and suggestions are made concerning the scope of research. (auth)« less