Future Research in Health Information Technology: A Review

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammad Reza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2017-01-01

Introduction Currently, information technology is considered an important tool to improve healthcare services. To adopt the right technologies, policy makers should have adequate information about present and future advances. This study aimed to review and compare studies with a focus on the future of health information technology. Method This review study was completed in 2015. The databases used were Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Ovid Medline, and PubMed. Keyword searches were used to identify papers and materials published between 2000 and 2015. Initially, 407 papers were obtained, and they were reduced to 11 papers at the final stage. The selected papers were described and compared in terms of the country of origin, objective, methodology, and time horizon. Results The papers were divided into two groups: those forecasting the future of health information technology (seven papers) and those providing health information technology foresight (four papers). The results showed that papers related to forecasting the future of health information technology were mostly a literature review, and the time horizon was up to 10 years in most of these studies. In the health information technology foresight group, most of the studies used a combination of techniques, such as scenario building and Delphi methods, and had long-term objectives. Conclusion To make the most of an investment and to improve planning and successful implementation of health information technology, a strategic plan for the future needs to be set. To achieve this aim, methods such as forecasting the future of health information technology and offering health information technology foresight can be applied. The forecasting method is used when the objectives are not very large, and the foresight approach is recommended when large-scale objectives are set to be achieved. In the field of health information technology, the results of foresight studies can help to establish realistic long-term expectations of the future of health information technology. PMID:28566991

Anticipatory Governance Practical Upgrades: Equipping the Executive Branch to Cope with Increasing Speed and Complexity of Major Challenges

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

in International Science and Technology Policy from The George Washington University. For 6 years, his work has focused on applications of foresight ...bring our management processes up to par with the nature of the challenges we face. inherited 6 Organized Foresight systems set up in foreign...disciplined foresight -policy linkage, networked management and budgeting to mission, and feedback systems to monitor and adjust. Anticipatory Governance

Assessing the role of memory in preschoolers' performance on episodic foresight tasks.

PubMed

Atance, Cristina M; Sommerville, Jessica A

2014-01-01

A total of 48 preschoolers (ages 3, 4, and 5) received four tasks modelled after prior work designed to assess the development of "episodic foresight". For each task, children encountered a problem in one room and, after a brief delay, were given the opportunity in a second room to select an item to solve the problem. Importantly, after selecting an item, children were queried about their memory for the problem. Age-related changes were found both in children's ability to select the correct item and their ability to remember the problem. However, when we controlled for children's memory for the problem, there were no longer significant age-related changes on the item choice measure. These findings suggest that age-related changes in children's performance on these tasks are driven by improvements in children's memory versus improvements in children's future-oriented thinking or "foresight" per se. Our results have important implications for how best to structure tasks to measure children's episodic foresight, and also for the relative role of memory in this task and in episodic foresight more broadly.

Collective Action Problem in Heterogeneous Groups with Punishment and Foresight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, Logan; Shrestha, Mahendra Duwal; Vose, Michael D.; Gavrilets, Sergey

2018-03-01

The collective action problem can easily undermine cooperation in groups. Recent work has shown that within-group heterogeneity can under some conditions promote voluntary provisioning of collective goods. Here we generalize this work for the case when individuals can not only contribute to the production of collective goods, but also punish free-riders. To do this, we extend the standard theory by allowing individuals to have limited foresight so they can anticipate actions of their group-mates. For humans, this is a realistic assumption because we possess a "theory of mind". We use agent-based simulations to study collective actions that aim to overcome challenges from nature or win competition with neighboring groups. We contrast the dynamics of collective action in egalitarian and hierarchical groups. We show that foresight allows groups to overcome both the first- and second-order free-rider problems. While foresight increases cooperation, it does not necessarily result in higher payoffs. We show that while between-group conflicts promotes within-group cooperation, the effects of cultural group selection on cooperation are relatively small. Our models predict the emergence of a division of labor in which more powerful individuals specialize in punishment while less powerful individuals mostly contribute to the production of collective goods.

Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de; Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de; Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org

Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them beingmore » maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.« less

How do episodic and semantic memory contribute to episodic foresight in young children?

PubMed

Martin-Ordas, Gema; Atance, Cristina M; Caza, Julian S

2014-01-01

Humans are able to transcend the present and mentally travel to another time, place, or perspective. Mentally projecting ourselves backwards (i.e., episodic memory) or forwards (i.e., episodic foresight) in time are crucial characteristics of the human memory system. Indeed, over the past few years, episodic memory has been argued to be involved both in our capacity to retrieve our personal past experiences and in our ability to imagine and foresee future scenarios. However, recent theory and findings suggest that semantic memory also plays a significant role in imagining future scenarios. We draw on Tulving's definition of episodic and semantic memory to provide a critical analysis of their role in episodic foresight tasks described in the developmental literature. We conclude by suggesting future directions of research that could further our understanding of how both episodic memory and semantic memory are intimately connected to episodic foresight.

How do episodic and semantic memory contribute to episodic foresight in young children?

PubMed Central

Martin-Ordas, Gema; Atance, Cristina M.; Caza, Julian S.

2014-01-01

Humans are able to transcend the present and mentally travel to another time, place, or perspective. Mentally projecting ourselves backwards (i.e., episodic memory) or forwards (i.e., episodic foresight) in time are crucial characteristics of the human memory system. Indeed, over the past few years, episodic memory has been argued to be involved both in our capacity to retrieve our personal past experiences and in our ability to imagine and foresee future scenarios. However, recent theory and findings suggest that semantic memory also plays a significant role in imagining future scenarios. We draw on Tulving’s definition of episodic and semantic memory to provide a critical analysis of their role in episodic foresight tasks described in the developmental literature. We conclude by suggesting future directions of research that could further our understanding of how both episodic memory and semantic memory are intimately connected to episodic foresight. PMID:25071690

Decision making in the reward and punishment variants of the iowa gambling task: evidence of "foresight" or "framing"?

PubMed

Singh, Varsha; Khan, Azizuddin

2012-01-01

Surface-level differences in the reward and punishment variants, specifically greater long-term decision making in the punishment variant of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) observed in previous studies led to the present comparison of long-term decision making in the two IGT variants (n = 320, male = 160). It was contended that risk aversion triggered by a positive frame of the reward variant and risk seeking triggered by a negative frame of the punishment variant appears as long-term decision making in the two IGT variants. Apart from the frame of the variant as a within-subjects factor (variant type: reward and punishment), the order in which the frame was triggered (order type: reward-punishment or punishment-reward), and the four types of instructions that delineated motivation toward reward from that of punishment (reward, punishment, reward and punishment, and no-hint) were hypothesized to have an effect on foresighted decision making in the IGT. As expected, long-term decision making differed across the two IGT variants suggesting that the frame of the variant has an effect on long-term decision making in the IGT (p < 0.001). The order in which a variant was presented, and the type of the instructions that were used both had an effect on long-term decision making in the two IGT variants (p < 0.05). A post hoc test suggested that the instructions that differentiated between reward and punishment resulted in greater foresight than the commonly used IGT instructions that fail to distinguish between reward and punishment. As observed in previous studies, there were more number of participants (60%) who showed greater foresight in the punishment variant than in the reward variant (p < 0.001). The results suggest that foresight in IGT decision making is sensitive to reward and punishment frame in an asymmetric manner, an observation that is aligned with the behavioral decision making framework. Benefits of integrating findings from behavioral studies in decision neuroscience are discussed, and a need to investigate cultural differences in the IGT studies is pointed out.

Foreword

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

2012-01-01

Environmental foresight is insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare wisely for a sustainable future. Successful environmental planning, management, and policy require the development and continual updating of foresight. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen Johnson has...

Precision Nutrition 4.0: A Big Data and Ethics Foresight Analysis--Convergence of Agrigenomics, Nutrigenomics, Nutriproteomics, and Nutrimetabolomics.

PubMed

Özdemir, Vural; Kolker, Eugene

2016-02-01

Nutrition is central to sustenance of good health, not to mention its role as a cultural object that brings together or draws lines among societies. Undoubtedly, understanding the future paths of nutrition science in the current era of Big Data remains firmly on science, technology, and innovation strategy agendas around the world. Nutrigenomics, the confluence of nutrition science with genomics, brought about a new focus on and legitimacy for "variability science" (i.e., the study of mechanisms of person-to-person and population differences in response to food, and the ways in which food variably impacts the host, for example, nutrient-related disease outcomes). Societal expectations, both public and private, and claims over genomics-guided and individually-tailored precision diets continue to proliferate. While the prospects of nutrition science, and nutrigenomics in particular, are established, there is a need to integrate the efforts in four Big Data domains that are naturally allied--agrigenomics, nutrigenomics, nutriproteomics, and nutrimetabolomics--that address complementary variability questions pertaining to individual differences in response to food-related environmental exposures. The joint use of these four omics knowledge domains, coined as Precision Nutrition 4.0 here, has sadly not been realized to date, but the potentials for such integrated knowledge innovation are enormous. Future personalized nutrition practices would benefit from a seamless planning of life sciences funding, research, and practice agendas from "farm to clinic to supermarket to society," and from "genome to proteome to metabolome." Hence, this innovation foresight analysis explains the already existing potentials waiting to be realized, and suggests ways forward for innovation in both technology and ethics foresight frames on precision nutrition. We propose the creation of a new Precision Nutrition Evidence Barometer for periodic, independent, and ongoing retrieval, screening, and aggregation of the relevant life sciences data. For innovation in Big Data ethics oversight, we suggest "nested governance" wherein the processes of knowledge production are made transparent in the continuum from life sciences and social sciences to humanities, and where each innovation actor reports to another accountability and transparency layer: scientists to ethicists, and ethicists to scholars in the emerging field of ethics-of-ethics. Such nested innovation ecosystems offer safety against innovation blind spots, calibrate visible/invisible power differences in the cultures of science or ethics, and ultimately, reducing the risk of "paper values"--what people say--and "real values"--what innovation actors actually do. We are optimistic that the convergence of nutrigenomics with nutriproteomics, nutrimetabolomics, and agrigenomics can build a robust, sustainable, and trustworthy precision nutrition 4.0 agenda, as articulated in this Big Data and ethics foresight analysis.

Using foresight to prepare animal health today for tomorrow’s challenges

PubMed Central

Willis, Norman G.; Munroe, Fonda A.; Empringham, R. Edward; Renwick, Shane A.; Van der Linden, Ingrid W.M.; Dunlop, James R.

2011-01-01

Foresight has been introduced in Canada in the area of animal health as a process to broaden thinking about the future and inform policy development. Its initial use and evolution through projects and studies over the past decade are described, demonstrating real action in animal health. Despite positive, continuing, and exciting results in animal health policy development, foresight’s widespread acceptance and use thus far have been limited. Critical components for success, drawn from the Canadian experience, are described, and recommendations are offered for further action in animal health. PMID:22131576

Episodic foresight beyond the very next event in 3- and 4-year-old children.

PubMed

Boden, Hannah; Labuschagne, Lisa G; Hinten, Ashley E; Scarf, Damian

2017-11-01

Testing episodic foresight in children generally involves presenting them with a problem in one location (e.g., Room A) and, after a spending a delay in a different location, telling them they will be returning to Room A. Before they go, children are presented with a number of items, one of which will allow them to solve the problem in Room A. At around 3 to 4 years of age children display episodic foresight, selecting the item that will allow them to solve the problem. To date, however, no study has assessed whether 3- and 4-year-old children can plan beyond the very next event, selecting the correct item when there is a delay before returning to Room A. Here, we show that 3- and 4-year-old children can pass when a delay is imposed but that their performance is significantly worse than when they are planning for an immediate event. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cerebral oxygen saturation and cardiac output during anaesthesia in sitting position for neurosurgical procedures: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Schramm, P; Tzanova, I; Hagen, F; Berres, M; Closhen, D; Pestel, G; Engelhard, K

2016-10-01

Neurosurgical operations in the dorsal cranium often require the patient to be positioned in a sitting position. This can be associated with decreased cardiac output and cerebral hypoperfusion, and possibly, inadequate cerebral oxygenation. In the present study, cerebral oxygen saturation was measured during neurosurgery in the sitting position and correlated with cardiac output. Perioperative cerebral oxygen saturation was measured continuously with two different monitors, INVOS ® and FORE-SIGHT ® . Cardiac output was measured at eight predefined time points using transoesophageal echocardiography. Forty patients were enrolled, but only 35 (20 female) were eventually operated on in the sitting position. At the first time point, the regional cerebral oxygen saturation measured with INVOS ® was 70 (sd 9)%; thereafter, it increased by 0.0187% min -1 (P<0.01). The cerebral tissue oxygen saturation measured with FORE-SIGHT ® started at 68 (sd 13)% and increased by 0.0142% min -1 (P<0.01). The mean arterial blood pressure did not change. Cardiac output was between 6.3 (sd 1.3) and 7.2 (1.8) litre min -1 at the predefined time points. Cardiac output, but not mean arterial blood pressure, showed a positive and significant correlation with cerebral oxygen saturation. During neurosurgery in the sitting position, the cerebral oxygen saturation slowly increases and, therefore, this position seems to be safe with regard to cerebral oxygen saturation. Cerebral oxygen saturation is stable because of constant CO and MAP, while the influence of CO on cerebral oxygen saturation seems to be more relevant. NCT01275898. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Influence of beach chair position on cerebral oxygen saturation: a comparison of INVOS and FORE-SIGHT cerebral oximeter.

PubMed

Closhen, Dorothea; Berres, Manfred; Werner, Christian; Engelhard, Kristin; Schramm, Patrick

2013-10-01

Although beach chair position (BCP) is frequently used for shoulder surgery, a potentially detrimental influence on cerebral oxygenation is discussed. Therefore, the present study investigated changes in regional cerebral oxygen saturation (rSO2/StO2) during BCP comparing 2 different devices for near-infrared spectroscopy measurement. Data were collected in 35 patients undergoing shoulder surgery in BCP and compared with a control group of 35 awake volunteers. The rSO2/StO2 was assessed using INVOS and FORE-SIGHT monitors. Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), PeCO2, FiO2, end-tidal sevoflurane concentration, and rSO2/StO2 were measured before positioning, during BCP, and in supine position after surgery. A decrease in rSO2/StO2 could be observed after BCP (INVOS: 76.1% supine vs. 66.7% BCP, P<0.001; FORE-SIGHT: 78.6% supine, 66.1% BCP, P<0.001), which was reversible in supine position. This decrease correlated with MAP during BCP, while in supine position no correlation was detected. In control group BCP did not influence rSO2/StO2. Changes detected with INVOS or FORE-SIGHT cerebral oximeter did not differ. BCP is associated with a decrease in rSO2/StO2 of 10% in anesthetized patients, which is reversible after repositioning. No changes occurred in supine position under general anesthesia as well as in awake subjects in BCP. This underlines the assumption that vasodilation by anesthetics in combination with BCP evoke a drop in rSO2/StO2. A strict hemodynamic management may be necessary to prevent desaturation events. Despite different technology used by the devices, the results of INVOS and FORE-SIGHT cerebral oximeters are comparable.

Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural healthcare staffing in the United States.

PubMed

Reimers-Hild, Connie

2018-05-01

This article uses a strategic foresight tool, megatrends, to examine forces influencing long-term healthcare staffing in the rural United States. Two megatrends-exponential advances in science and technology and the continued evolution of the decentralized global marketplace-will influence and ultimately help shape the future of rural healthcare. Successful health ecosystems of the future will need to be customer-driven, more affordable, and tech-savvy. Successful evolution in an era of continuous change will require a blend of intentional engagement with stakeholders, strategic foresight, and future-focused leadership. More research is needed to fully understand not only the challenges of rural healthcare but also the emerging opportunities.

Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural healthcare staffing in the United States

PubMed Central

Reimers-Hild, Connie

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT This article uses a strategic foresight tool, megatrends, to examine forces influencing long-term healthcare staffing in the rural United States. Two megatrends—exponential advances in science and technology and the continued evolution of the decentralized global marketplace—will influence and ultimately help shape the future of rural healthcare. Successful health ecosystems of the future will need to be customer-driven, more affordable, and tech-savvy. Successful evolution in an era of continuous change will require a blend of intentional engagement with stakeholders, strategic foresight, and future-focused leadership. More research is needed to fully understand not only the challenges of rural healthcare but also the emerging opportunities. PMID:29642092

Comparison of cerebral tissue oxygenation values in full term and preterm newborns by the simultaneous use of two near-infrared spectroscopy devices: an absolute and a relative trending oximeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szczapa, Tomasz; Karpiński, Łukasz; Moczko, Jerzy; Weindling, Michael; Kornacka, Alicja; Wróblewska, Katarzyna; Adamczak, Aleksandra; Jopek, Aleksandra; Chojnacka, Karolina; Gadzinowski, Janusz

2013-08-01

The aim of this study is to compare a two-wavelength light emitting diode-based tissue oximeter (INVOS), which is designed to show trends in tissue oxygenation, with a four-wavelength laser-based oximeter (FORE-SIGHT), designed to deliver absolute values of tissue oxygenation. Simultaneous values of cerebral tissue oxygenation (StO2) are measured using both devices in 15 term and 15 preterm clinically stable newborns on the first and third day of life. Values are recorded simultaneously in two periods between which oximeter sensor positions are switched to the contralateral side. Agreement between StO2 values before and after the change of sensor position is analyzed. We find that mean cerebral StO2 values are similar between devices for term and preterm babies, but INVOS shows StO2 values spread over a wider range, with wider standard deviations than shown by the FORE-SIGHT. There is relatively good agreement with a bias up to 3.5% and limits of agreement up to 11.8%. Measurements from each side of the forehead show better repeatability for the FORE-SIGHT monitor. We conclude that performance of the two devices is probably acceptable for clinical purposes. Both performed sufficiently well, but the use of FORE-SIGHT may be associated with tighter range and better repeatability of data.

History of Rotating Machine Development and Foresight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tari, Makoto; Nagano, Susumu; Amemori, Shiro; Aso, Toshiyuki

The history of electrical rotating machines such as generators and motors in Japan is around one hundred years. At early stage, all machines were imported from foreign countries, but now domestic industries introduce new concept of machines and are leading these kinds of technology. Reviewing of history and development and foresight seems meaningful for further development.

Youth Foresight: We Will All Be Media in 2035

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhilavskaya, Irina; Ivanova, Tatiana; Dubover, Denis; Onuchina, Kristina

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the Media Environment in 2035 Foresight Session held on September 27, 2015 at Artek International Child Center during International Youth Media Forum. The event was attended by 158 school children--the winners of regional Youth Journalism contests. The researchers were entrusted with the task of…

Mathematical Foresight: Thinking in the Future to Work in the Present

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maciejewski, Wes; Barton, Bill

2016-01-01

Originating from interviews with mathematics colleagues, written accounts of mathematicians engaging with mathematics, and Wes's reflections on his own mathematical work, we describe a process that we call mathematical foresight: the imagining of a resolution to a mathematical situation and a path to that resolution. In a sense, mathematical…

Hindsight bias: how knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past.

PubMed

Hertwig, Ralph; Fanselow, Carola; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2003-01-01

Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of process models of hindsight bias can be measured. Therefore, we used it to put the recently proposed RAFT model (Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, 2000) to another test. Our findings were consistent with the "expertise effect." Specifically, we observed-using computer simulations of the RAFT model-that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias. In addition, we made two counterintuitive observations: First, the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed. Second, even if foresight knowledge is false, it can reduce hindsight bias. We conclude with a discussion of the functional value of hindsight bias.

Seroprevalence occurrence of viral hepatitis and HIV among hemodialysis patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Inass Mahmood; Mutar Mahdi, Batool

2018-05-01

Patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) were on maintenance invasive haemodialysis (HD) procedure. This procedure by itself affects immunity of the patients and they become more susceptible to viral infections. We investigate the occurrence of HBV HCV and HIV infections in patients with hemodialysis. A retrospective study of 430 endstage renal failure patients referred to hemodialysis department at AlKindy Teaching Hospital Baghdad, Iraq from January 2015 to January 2017 was conducted. Patients were investigated for HBsAg using enzymelabeled antigen test (ForesightEIAUSA) HCV Abs (IgG) specific immunoglobulin using a HCV enzymelabeled antigen test (ForesightEIAUSA) and anti HIV Abs (IgG) using enzymelabeled antigen test (ForesightEIAUSA). The frequency of HBV infection in the first year was not significant between males (111%) and females (000%)(P = 0295). About HCV also there are no significant differences between males (1263%) and females (931%)(P = 0347). After one year of follow up the frequencies of HBV and HCV were not significant between two sexes. Additionally none of the patients had an HIV infection. This study brings to light that HBV and HCV have the same frequencies in both genders and lower occurrence with time. Furthermore HIV was not detected in those patients.

The Role of Episodic and Semantic Memory in Episodic Foresight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin-Ordas, Gema; Atance, Cristina M.; Louw, Alyssa

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe a special form of future thinking, termed "episodic foresight" and its relation with episodic and semantic memory. We outline the methodologies that have largely been developed in the last five years to assess this capacity in young children and non-human animals. Drawing on Tulving's definition of episodic and semantic…

A Framework to Support S&T Planning for Royal Australian Navy Capability Acquisition

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

for guiding policy and assisting with strategic planning innovation processes. At the commencement of a Foresight Planning exercise the...for many Australian Defence Force (ADF) capability projects . Specifically, the methodology could prove beneficial in the development of science and...27 6.4 Selecting Appropriate Foresight Planning Methods ....................................... 28 7. SCIENCE AND

The use of foresight methods in strategic raw materials intelligence - an international review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrat Martins, Marco Antonio; Bodo, Balazs; Falck, Eberhard

2017-04-01

Foresight methods are systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, society, economy and technology. There is a range of tools and techniques that can be used individually or combined, most commonly classified into qualitative, quantitative or semi-quantitative methods, that follow an exploratory or normative approach. These tools can help to identify the longer term visions, orienting policy formulation and decisions, triggering actions, among other objectives. There is an identified lack of European strategic foresight knowledge in the raw materials domain. Since the European Raw Materials Initiative was launched in 2008, the EU has been attempting to overcome challenges related to the future access of non-energy and non-agricultural raw materials. In this context, the ongoing H2020 project, MICA (Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis, Grant Agreement No. 689648), has been launched to answer to stakeholders needs by consolidating relevant data, determining relevant methods and tools, and investigating Raw Materials Intelligence options for European mineral policy development, all tailored to fit under the umbrella of a European Raw Materials Intelligence Capacity Platform (EU-RMICP). As part of the MICA activities, an assessment of best practices and benchmarks of international raw materials foresight case studies has been carried out in order to review how EU and non-EU countries have employed foresight. A pool of 30 case studies has been collected and reviewed internationally, one third of which were selected for detailed assessment. These were classified according to their background and goals, in function of methods employed, and to the purpose of each method in the study: a total of 12 different methods were identified in these studies. For longer time frames, qualitative predictive methods such as Scenario Development have been repeatedly observed for mineral raw materials foresight studies. Substantial variations were observed in terms of use and deployment of the scenarios. Pre-defined global scenarios can be used to explore futures thinking over a given theme - a step in the process - whereas the development of specific scenarios can be the main element of the study. The former was used to consider future strategies at different levels and how different futures influence the sector, whilst the latter was preferably used as means of assessment of sector capabilities and the current readiness for future challenges. Other methods such as SWOT, STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental and Political scanning) and Brainstorming can be observed supporting the Scenarios, helping to provide either input for its development or post-processing its outcomes towards overall objectives. The volatility of the mineral raw materials sector presents a natural inclination towards more explorative and creativity-based methods. Such methods can address the necessity of understanding how different factors may play out in the future, where critical uncertainties can dictate a range of possible futures. Therefore, having a solid backdrop for alternative paths is extremely useful for policy and decision-makers to propose actions and respond in a timely manner to the future challenges of the sector.

Proceedings of the Conference on Computer Generated Forces and Behavioral Representation (5th), Held in Orlando, Florida, on 9-11 May 1995

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

ForeSight ( MECFS ). Prior to joining TASC, Mr. Stanzione served as the deputy director of the Semi-Automated Forces group at Loral Advanced Distributed...TASC’s other Synthetic Environment programs, including Weather in DIS (WINDS) and Multi-Echelon CFOR with ForeSight ( MECFS ). Prior to joining TASC, Mr

Brief Report: Episodic Foresight in Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, Laura K.; Atance, Cristina M.

2014-01-01

Episodic foresight (EpF) or, the ability to imagine the future and use such imagination to guide our actions, is an important aspect of cognition that has not yet been explored in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This is despite its proposed links with theory of mind (ToM) and executive function (EF), two areas found to be impaired in…

A mechanism for proven technology foresight for emerging fast reactor designs and concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anuar, Nuraslinda, E-mail: nuraslinda@uniten.edu.my; Muhamad Pauzi, Anas, E-mail: anas@uniten.edu.my

The assessment of emerging nuclear fast reactor designs and concepts viability requires a combination of foresight methods. A mechanism that allows for the comparison and quantification of the possibility of being a proven technology in the future, β for the existing fast reactor designs and concepts is proposed as one of the quantitative foresight method. The methodology starts with the identification at the national or regional level, of the factors that would affect β. The factors are then categorized into several groups; economic, social and technology elements. Each of the elements is proposed to be mathematically modelled before all ofmore » the elemental models can be combined. Once the overall β model is obtained, the β{sub min} is determined to benchmark the acceptance as a candidate design or concept. The β values for all the available designs and concepts are then determined and compared with the β{sub min}, resulting in a list of candidate designs that possess the β value that is larger than the β{sub min}. The proposed methodology can also be applied to purposes other than technological foresight.« less

The ideomotor recycling theory for tool use, language, and foresight.

PubMed

Badets, Arnaud; Osiurak, François

2017-02-01

The present theoretical framework highlights a common action-perception mechanism for tool use, spoken language, and foresight capacity. On the one hand, it has been suggested that human language and the capacity to envision the future (i.e. foresight) have, from an evolutionary viewpoint, developed mutually along with the pressure of tool use. This co-evolution has afforded humans an evident survival advantage in the animal kingdom because language can help to refine the representation of future scenarios, which in turn can help to encourage or discourage engagement in appropriate and efficient behaviours. On the other hand, recent assumptions regarding the evolution of the brain have capitalized on the concept of "neuronal recycling". In the domain of cognitive neuroscience, neuronal recycling means that during evolution, some neuronal areas and cognitive functions have been recycled to manage new environmental and social constraints. In the present article, we propose that the co-evolution of tool use, language, and foresight represents a suitable example of such functional recycling throughout a well-defined common action-perception mechanism, i.e. the ideomotor mechanism. This ideomotor account is discussed in light of different future ontogenetic and phylogenetic perspectives.

Seroprevalence occurrence of viral hepatitis and HIV among hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Kamal, Inass Mahmood Abid; Mahdi, Batool Mutar

2018-05-01

Patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) were on maintenance invasive hemodialysis (HD) procedure. This procedure by itself affects immunity of the patients and became more susceptible to viral infections. to investigate the occurrence of HBV, HCV and HIV infections in patients with hemodialysis. A retrospective study of 430 end-stage renal failure patients, referred to hemodialysis department at XXXX Teaching Hospital, Baghdad-Iraq from January-2015 to January-2017. Patients were investigated for HBs-Ag using enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA), HCV- Abs (IgG) specific immunoglobulin using an HCV enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA)and anti - HIV Abs (IgG) using enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA). The frequency of HBV infection in the first year was not significant between males (1.11%) and females (0.00%) (P = 0.295). About HCV also there are no significant differences between males (12.63%) and females (9.31%) (P = 0.347). After one year of follow up the frequencies of HBV and HCV were not significant between two sexes. Additionally, no any one of the patients had HIV infection. This study brings a light on that HBV and HCV were having the same frequencies in both genders and lower occurrence with time. Furthermore, HIV was not detected in those patients.

Seroprevalence occurrence of viral hepatitis and HIV among hemodialysis patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, Inass Mahmood; Mutar Mahdi, Batool

2018-05-01

Background: Patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) were on maintenance invasive haemodialysis (HD) procedure. This procedure by itself affects immunity of the patients and became more susceptible to viral infections. Aim of the study: to investigate the occurrence of HBV, HCV and HIV infections in patients with hemodialysis. Patients and methods: A retrospective study of 430 end-stage renal failure patients, referred to hemodialysis department at Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital, Baghdad-Iraq from Junuary-2015 to Junuary-2017. Patients were investigated for HBs-Ag using enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA ), HCV- Abs (IgG) specific immunoglobulin using a HCV enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA) and anti HIV Abs (IgG) using enzyme-labeled antigen test (Foresight-EIA-USA). Results: The frequency of HBV infection in the first year was not significant between males (1.11%) and females (0.00%)(P = 0.295). About HCV also there are no significant differences between males (12.63%) and females (9.31%)(P = 0.347). After one year of follow up the frequencies of HBV and HCV were not significant between two sexes. Additionally, no any one of the patients had HIV infection. Conclusions: This study brings a light on that HBV and HCV were having the same frequencies in both genders and lower occurrence with time. Furthermore, HIV was not detected in those patients.

Ready for the Future: Assessing the Collaborative Capacity of State Emergency Management Agencies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE March 2013...Preparedness) SEOC State Emergency Operations Center xiv SFI Strategic Foresight Initiative SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences UASI... management discipline and to define the core capabilities to meet those needs. The Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) resulted in a vision document

Modeling Limited Foresight in Water Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R.

2005-12-01

The inability to forecast future water supplies means that their management inevitably occurs under situations of limited foresight. Three modeling problems arise, first what type of objective function is a manager with limited foresight optimizing? Second how can we measure these objectives? Third can objective functions that incorporate uncertainty be integrated within the structure of optimizing water management models? The paper reviews the concepts of relative risk aversion and intertemporal substitution that underlie stochastic dynamic preference functions. Some initial results from the estimation of such functions for four different dam operations in northern California are presented and discussed. It appears that the path of previous water decisions and states influences the decision-makers willingness to trade off water supplies between periods. A compromise modeling approach that incorporates carry-over value functions under limited foresight within a broader net work optimal water management model is developed. The approach uses annual carry-over value functions derived from small dimension stochastic dynamic programs embedded within a larger dimension water allocation network. The disaggregation of the carry-over value functions to the broader network is extended using the space rule concept. Initial results suggest that the solution of such annual nonlinear network optimizations is comparable to, or faster than, the solution of linear network problems over long time series.

Estimating the outcome of a pregnancy test: women's judgements in foresight and hindsight.

PubMed

Pennington, D C; Rutter, D R; McKenna, K; Morley, I E

1980-11-01

Previous research on judgement under uncertainty has suggested that, when we know the outcome of some event, we perceive that outcome as more likely than when we do not have outcome knowledge. That is, in comparison with judgements made in foresight, judgements made in hindsight are biased in the direction of the outcome the judge believes to have happened. While the effect appears to be robust in the laboratory, it has very seldom been tested in real life. This experiment therefore went outside the laboratory, and examined women's estimates of the outcome of a pregnacy test. It was predicted that those who knew the result of their test (hindsight) would perceive that outcome as more likely than those asked to make the estimate before they knew the result (foresight). The prediction was supported only for women whose result was positive and, furthermore, the positive group made consistently higher estimates than the negative group, both in hindsight and foresight. The findings were therefore less marked and more complex than in previous laboratory research, and support the argument that experiments and materials must be constructed with salience for the subjects. The findings are interpreted in the light ot Tversky & Kahneman's (1974) work on heuristic rules of thinking.

Decision Making in the Reward and Punishment Variants of the Iowa Gambling Task: Evidence of “Foresight” or “Framing”?

PubMed Central

Singh, Varsha; Khan, Azizuddin

2012-01-01

Surface-level differences in the reward and punishment variants, specifically greater long-term decision making in the punishment variant of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) observed in previous studies led to the present comparison of long-term decision making in the two IGT variants (n = 320, male = 160). It was contended that risk aversion triggered by a positive frame of the reward variant and risk seeking triggered by a negative frame of the punishment variant appears as long-term decision making in the two IGT variants. Apart from the frame of the variant as a within-subjects factor (variant type: reward and punishment), the order in which the frame was triggered (order type: reward–punishment or punishment–reward), and the four types of instructions that delineated motivation toward reward from that of punishment (reward, punishment, reward and punishment, and no-hint) were hypothesized to have an effect on foresighted decision making in the IGT. As expected, long-term decision making differed across the two IGT variants suggesting that the frame of the variant has an effect on long-term decision making in the IGT (p < 0.001). The order in which a variant was presented, and the type of the instructions that were used both had an effect on long-term decision making in the two IGT variants (p < 0.05). A post hoc test suggested that the instructions that differentiated between reward and punishment resulted in greater foresight than the commonly used IGT instructions that fail to distinguish between reward and punishment. As observed in previous studies, there were more number of participants (60%) who showed greater foresight in the punishment variant than in the reward variant (p < 0.001). The results suggest that foresight in IGT decision making is sensitive to reward and punishment frame in an asymmetric manner, an observation that is aligned with the behavioral decision making framework. Benefits of integrating findings from behavioral studies in decision neuroscience are discussed, and a need to investigate cultural differences in the IGT studies is pointed out. PMID:22833714

Comparative analysis between academic and patent publications based on Fenton Technologies among China, Brazil, and the rest of the world.

PubMed

de Luna, Airton José; Santos, Douglas Alves

2017-03-01

Worldwide, year by year, Fenton's Technologies have been highlighted in both academic and patent scopes, in part due to their proven efficiency as environment-friendly technologies destined to the abatement of organic pollutants, and also by their growing interest to produce industrial applications. Thus, aiming to understand the effective dynamic between two worlds, academy vs patents, the present study performs a comparative analysis about publications on Fenton-based Technologies (FbT). Therefore, in this work, technological foresight techniques were adopted focusing on patent and non-patent databases, employing for this, the Web of Science (WoS) database as a prospecting tool. The main results for the last decade point out to a strong increment of the Fenton's Technologies, as much in R&D as in patent applications in the world. Chinese Universities and firms command the scenario. There is an expressive gap between the academic and patent issues.

Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation.

PubMed

Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S; Özdemir, Vural

2015-01-01

The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger's Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss' Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts' opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0.087 and 0.083, respectively). Scholars in technology design, foresight research and future(s) studies might consider these new findings in strategic planning of Delphi studies, for example, in rational choice of consensus indices and sample size, or accounting for confounding factors such as experts' variable degrees of conformity (stubbornness/flexibility) in modifying their opinions.

Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation

PubMed Central

Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S.; Özdemir, Vural

2015-01-01

The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger’s Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss’ Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts’ opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0.087 and 0.083, respectively). Scholars in technology design, foresight research and future(s) studies might consider these new findings in strategic planning of Delphi studies, for example, in rational choice of consensus indices and sample size, or accounting for confounding factors such as experts’ variable degrees of conformity (stubbornness/flexibility) in modifying their opinions. PMID:26270647

Links and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1999-09-01

At the end of June a new website was launched to enable young people to get involved with the UK's national Foresight programme and to help shape the future. `School of the Future - Young people with Foresight' will provide young people with the means to contribute to the national programme which develops scenarios of the future, looking at possible needs, opportunities or threats and deciding what should be done now to make sure these challenges can be met. The site can be found at www.asset.org.uk and it will be run by the Association for Schools' Science, Engineering and Technology (ASSET). The latest round of Foresight began in April and panels are taking a look at the aging population, crime prevention, built environment and transport, aerospace and systems, energy and the natural environment, information, communications and media, materials and sustainable development, amongst other topics. Information about Foresight activities and events can be obtained from the Office of Science and Technology or the Foresight Knowledge pool at www.foresight.gov.uk. The pool will act as a unique and freely accessible electronic library of views and information about the future that young people will be able to draw on for assistance and reference material. Futher assistance for students will also be on offer from museums and art galleries from now on, thanks to additional funding which has been made available over the next three years. Forty museums and galleries will share up to #2.5m for projects intended to improve students' literacy, numeracy and science skills as well as their understanding of history and art. Examples of the imaginative projects which have been put forward include use of the large collection of steam engines at the Museum of Science and Industry in Manchester to assist boys' science and literacy skills. The Museum of London will be working with over 2000 schools in the South East to provide materials for the schools' own mini-museums on the Romans, Anglo-Saxons and Vikings in Britain; and the Football museum in Preston plans to help local pupils with their literacy and numeracy skills by preparing newspaper reports and football results tables. In this role of supporting education the various bodies will be both helping teachers to deliver the curriculum and also bringing their own cultural resources to life for the students. On a related theme, the Royal Observatory at Greenwich has just introduced its own Open Museum course to prepare adults with an interest in astronomy to study for a GCSE in the subject. The course begins in October and lasts for nine months, covering topics such as the Earth and Moon, solar system, stars, galaxies and observing techniques. Those undertaking the course will be able to use the Observatory's 28 inch refractor and a Meade LX10 Schmidt Cassegrain telescope. Further information on the course and the Open Museum is available from Joy Affection (tel: 0181 312 6747) or from the NMM website at www.nmm.ac.uk.

Surprise influences hindsight-foresight differences in temporal judgments of animated automobile accidents.

PubMed

Calvillo, Dustin P; Gomes, Dayna M

2011-04-01

The hindsight bias occurs when people view an outcome as more foreseeable than it actually was. The role of an outcome's initial surprise in the hindsight bias was examined using animations of automobile accidents. Twenty-six participants rated the initial surprise of accidents' occurring in eight animations. An additional 84 participants viewed these animations in one of two conditions: Half stopped the animations when they were certain an accident would occur (i.e., in foresight), and the other half watched the entire animations first and then stopped the animations when they thought that a naïve viewer would be certain that an accident would occur (i.e., in hindsight). When the accidents were low in initial surprise, there were no foresight-hindsight differences; when initial surprise was medium, there was a hindsight bias; and when initial surprise was high, there was a reversed hindsight bias. The results are consistent with a sense-making model of hindsight bias.

Foresight scanning: future directions of clinical and pharmaceutical research.

PubMed

Foster, Brian C

2008-01-01

Foresight Scanning: Future Directions of Clinical and Pharmaceutical Research. Brian C. Foster, Therapeutic Products Directorate, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada ABSTRACT The Canadian Society for Pharmaceutical Sciences Satellite Symposium on Foresight Scanning, May 26 and 27, 2008, Nordegg, Alberta, Canada, focussed on the future directions of clinical and pharmaceutical research. The symposium brought together a group of clinicians, regulatory scientists, researchers and students to examine where clinical, pharmaceutical, and regulatory science might be in 10 to 15 years. Industry, regulatory, analytical, and clinical perspectives were presented and discussed, as well as the impact of exogenous (indirect) and endogenous (direct) change drivers. Unconditional funding was provided by Bayer HealthCare; they had no input on the direction of the meeting or selection of speakers. It was envisioned that the more important endogenous drivers may not be new information or changes in technology, policy, regulation, or health care delivery, but amplification of long-term underlying trends by emergence of new technologies, convergence of existing technologies or new communication and collaboration vehicles such as Web 2.0.

Knowledge, Informationa and Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Peter

2000-09-01

This paper problematises the notion of the "knowledge society" found in two recent initiatives: the OECD's International Adult Literacy Survey, and the New Zealand Foresight Project. The author supports a broadening of the concept of literacy, as suggested by the OECD reports, but points to some of the limits of "information" as the focus for such a re-definition. The principle of theorising social and economic futures is also endorsed, but the form this takes in the Foresight Project is seen as unnecessarily restrictive. To date, the Foresight Project can be seen as a synthesis of elements of market liberalism and scientific rationalism. Both projects ignore crucial political and ethical questions in their accounts of the "knowledge society" and the process of globalisation, and both are wedded to a technocratic mode of policy development and planning. The author calls for further critical work on changing patterns of literate activity in the information age, and stresses the importance of contemplating futures other than those driven by the imperatives of global capitalism.

Detection of critical cerebral desaturation thresholds by three regional oximeters during hypoxia: a pilot study in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Tomlin, Kerry L; Neitenbach, Anna-Maria; Borg, Ulf

2017-01-13

Regional oximetry is increasingly used to monitor post-extraction oxygen status of the brain during surgical procedures where hemodynamic fluctuations are expected. Particularly in cardiac surgery, clinicians employ an interventional algorithm to restore baseline regional oxygen saturation (rSO 2 ) when a patient reaches a critical desaturation threshold. Evidence suggests that monitoring cardiac surgery patients and intervening to maintain rSO 2 can improve postoperative outcomes; however, evidence generated with one manufacturer's device may not be applicable to others. We hypothesized that regional oximeters from different manufacturers respond uniquely to changes in oxygen saturation in healthy volunteers. Three devices were tested: INVOS™ 5100C (Medtronic), EQUANOX™ 7600 (Nonin), and FORE-SIGHT™ (CASMED) monitors. We divided ten healthy subjects into two cohorts wearing a single sensor each from INVOS and EQUANOX (n = 6), or INVOS and FORE-SIGHT (n = 4). We induced and reversed hypoxia by adjusting the fraction of inspired oxygen. We calculated the magnitude of absolute rSO 2 change and rate of rSO 2 change during desaturation and resaturation, and determined if and when each device reached a critical interventional rSO 2 threshold during hypoxia. All devices responded to changes in oxygen directionally as expected. The median absolute rSO 2 change and the rate of rSO 2 change was significantly greater during desaturation and resaturation for INVOS compared with EQUANOX (P = 0.04). A similar but nonsignificant trend was observed for INVOS compared with FORE-SIGHT; our study was underpowered to definitively conclude there was no difference. A 10% relative decrease in rSO 2 during desaturation was detected by all three devices across the ten subjects. INVOS met a 20% relative decrease threshold in all subjects of both cohorts, compared to 1 with EQUANOX and 2 with FORE-SIGHT. Neither EQUANOX nor FORE-SIGHT reached a 50% absolute rSO 2 threshold compared with 4 and 3 subjects in each cohort with INVOS, respectively. Significant differences exist between the devices in how they respond to changes in oxygen saturation in healthy volunteers. We suggest caution when applying evidence generated with one manufacturer's device to all devices.

Architectural innovation foresight of thermoelectric generator charger integrated portable power supply for portable consumer electronic device in metropolitan market: The case study of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maolikul, S.; Kiatgamolchai, S.; Chavarnakul, T.

2012-06-01

In the context of information and communication technology (ICT) trend for worldwide individuals, social life becomes digital and portable consumer electronic devices (PCED) powered by conventional power supply from batteries have been evolving through miniaturization and various function integration. Thermoelectric generators (TEG) were hypothesized for its potential role of battery charger to serve the shining PCED market. Hence, this paper, mainly focusing at the metropolitan market in Thailand, aimed to conduct architectural innovation foresight and to develop scenarios on potential exploitation approach of PCED battery power supply with TEG charger converting power from ambient heat source adjacent to individual's daily life. After technical review and assessment for TEG potential and battery aspect, the business research was conducted to analyze PCED consumer behavior for their PCED utilization pattern, power supply lack problems, and encountering heat sources/sinks in 3 modes: daily life, work, and leisure hobbies. Based on the secondary data analysis from literature and National Statistical Office of Thailand, quantitative analysis was applied using the cluster probability sampling methodology, statistically, with the sample size of 400 at 0.05 level of significance. In addition, the qualitative analysis was conducted to emphasize the rationale of consumer's behavior using in-depth qualitative interview. Scenario planning technique was also used to generate technological and market trend foresight. Innovation field and potential scenario for matching technology with market was proposed in this paper. The ingredient for successful commercialization of battery power supply with TEG charger for PCED market consists of 5 factors as follows: (1) PCED characteristic, (2) potential ambient heat sources/sinks, (3) battery module, (4) power management module, and the final jigsaw (5) characteristic and adequate arrangement of TEG modules. The foresight outcome for the potential innovations represents a case study in the pilot commercialization of TEG technology for some interesting niche markets in metropolitan area of Thailand, and, thus, can be the clue for product development related to TEG for market-driven application in other similar requirement conditions and contexts as well.

Ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports affective future simulation by integrating distributed knowledge

PubMed Central

Benoit, Roland G.; Szpunar, Karl K.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

Although the future often seems intangible, we can make it more concrete by imagining prospective events. Here, using functional MRI, we demonstrate a mechanism by which the ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports such episodic simulations, and thereby contributes to affective foresight: This region supports processes that (i) integrate knowledge related to the elements that constitute an episode and (ii) represent the episode’s emergent affective quality. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex achieves such integration via interactions with distributed cortical regions that process the individual elements. Its activation then signals the affective quality of the ensuing episode, which goes beyond the combined affective quality of its constituting elements. The integrative process further augments long-term retention of the episode, making it available at later time points. This mechanism thus renders the future tangible, providing a basis for farsighted behavior. PMID:25368170

Ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports affective future simulation by integrating distributed knowledge.

PubMed

Benoit, Roland G; Szpunar, Karl K; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-11-18

Although the future often seems intangible, we can make it more concrete by imagining prospective events. Here, using functional MRI, we demonstrate a mechanism by which the ventromedial prefrontal cortex supports such episodic simulations, and thereby contributes to affective foresight: This region supports processes that (i) integrate knowledge related to the elements that constitute an episode and (ii) represent the episode's emergent affective quality. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex achieves such integration via interactions with distributed cortical regions that process the individual elements. Its activation then signals the affective quality of the ensuing episode, which goes beyond the combined affective quality of its constituting elements. The integrative process further augments long-term retention of the episode, making it available at later time points. This mechanism thus renders the future tangible, providing a basis for farsighted behavior.

Possible use of foresight, understanding, and planning by wolves hunting muskoxen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

2007-01-01

On Ellesmere Island in 2006, arctic wolves (Canis lupus arctos) were observed making a two-pronged approach to a herd of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and, on another occasion, ambushing muskoxen. Both observations seemed to provide evidence that the wolves were using foresight, understanding, and planning. Although the possible use of insight and purposiveness has been documented in captive wolves, the present report is one of the few to document the possibility that free-ranging wolves use these other three mental processes. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.

Examining Mindfulness as a Conceptual Framework for Teaching and Learning: A Descriptive Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michael, Christopher J.

2008-01-01

Mindfulness is ongoing scrutiny of existing expectations, continuous refinement of those expectations based on new experiences, appreciation of the subtleties of context, and identification of novel aspects of context that can improve foresight and functioning. This concept of mindfulness has been studied in the domain of business and in relation…

Strategic Architecture for School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palupiningrum, Agustina Widi; Daryanto, Arief; Fahmi, Idqan

2016-01-01

This study aims to analyze the internal and external factors that influence the development of SB-IPB, analyze SB-IPB strategic foresight and designing SB-IPB strategic architecture. This research is a descriptive research in the form of a case study. Respondents in this study are experts from inside and outside of IPB who are policy makers,…

Report of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission : transportation for tomorrow.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-11-01

President Dwight D. Eisenhower had the foresight : to understand how a system of Interstate highways : would transform the Nation. If there was ever a : time to take a similarly daring look at a broadened : surface transportation network, it is now! ...

For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Reflections on Historical Judgment

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

Feyerabend , 1975; Lakatos, 1970) have, in fact, extolled the role of disciplined anarchy in the growth of understanding and doubted the possibility of wisdom... Feyerabend , P. Against method. New York: NLB, 1975. Fischer, D. H. Historians’ fallacies. New York: Harper & Row, 1970. Fischhoff, B. Hindsight foresight

Episodic foresight and anxiety: Proximate and ultimate perspectives.

PubMed

Miloyan, Beyon; Bulley, Adam; Suddendorf, Thomas

2016-03-01

In this paper, we examine the relationship between episodic foresight and anxiety from an evolutionary perspective, proposing that together they confer an advantage for modifying present moment decision-making and behaviour in the light of potential future threats to fitness. We review the body of literature on the role of episodic foresight in anxiety, from both proximate and ultimate perspectives. We propose that anxious feelings associated with episodic simulation of possible threat-related future events serve to imbue these simulations with motivational currency. Episodic and semantic details of a future threat may be insufficient for motivating its avoidance, but anxiety associated with a simulation can provoke adaptive threat management. As such, we detail how anxiety triggered by a self-generated, threat-related future simulation prepares the individual to manage that threat (in terms of its likelihood and/or consequences) over greater temporal distances than observed in other animals. We then outline how anxiety subtypes may represent specific mechanisms for predicting and managing particular classes of fitness threats. This approach offers an inroad for understanding the nature of characteristic future thinking patterns in anxiety disorders and serves to illustrate the adaptive function of the mechanism from which clinical anxiety deviates. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Identifying viable regulatory and innovation pathways for regenerative medicine: a case study of cultured red blood cells.

PubMed

Mittra, J; Tait, J; Mastroeni, M; Turner, M L; Mountford, J C; Bruce, K

2015-01-25

The creation of red blood cells for the blood transfusion markets represents a highly innovative application of regenerative medicine with a medium term (5-10 year) prospect for first clinical studies. This article describes a case study analysis of a project to derive red blood cells from human embryonic stem cells, including the systemic challenges arising from (i) the selection of appropriate and viable regulatory protocols and (ii) technological constraints related to stem cell manufacture and scale up to clinical Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) standard. The method used for case study analysis (Analysis of Life Science Innovation Systems (ALSIS)) is also innovative, demonstrating a new approach to social and natural science collaboration to foresight product development pathways. Issues arising along the development pathway include cell manufacture and scale-up challenges, affected by regulatory demands emerging from the innovation ecosystem (preclinical testing and clinical trials). Our discussion reflects on the efforts being made by regulators to adapt the current pharmaceuticals-based regulatory model to an allogeneic regenerative medicine product and the broader lessons from this case study for successful innovation and translation of regenerative medicine therapies, including the role of methodological and regulatory innovation in future development in the field. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Homeschool in Malaysia: A Foresight Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim-Soon, Ng; Rahman Bin Ahmad, Abd; Bin Sulaiman, Muhammad Ibrahim; Sirisa, Ng Mei Xin

2015-01-01

Homeschooling in Malaysia is a form of alternative education that emphasizes quality education based on moral values and beliefs while strengthening family bonds. This alternative form of education is being practiced by a growing number of families in Malaysia. As such, the Ministry of Education has given the green light for intending parents who…

Selection and Evaluation of Priority Domains in Global Energy Internet Standard Development Based on Technology Foresight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yang; Ciwei, Gao; Jing, Zhang; Min, Sun; Jie, Yu

2017-05-01

The selection and evaluation of priority domains in Global Energy Internet standard development will help to break through limits of national investment, thus priority will be given to standardizing technical areas with highest urgency and feasibility. Therefore, in this paper, the process of Delphi survey based on technology foresight is put forward, the evaluation index system of priority domains is established, and the index calculation method is determined. Afterwards, statistical method is used to evaluate the alternative domains. Finally the top four priority domains are determined as follows: Interconnected Network Planning and Simulation Analysis, Interconnected Network Safety Control and Protection, Intelligent Power Transmission and Transformation, and Internet of Things.

Using foresight methods to anticipate future threats: the case of disease management.

PubMed

Ma, Sai; Seid, Michael

2006-01-01

We describe a unique foresight framework for health care managers to use in longer-term planning. This framework uses scenario-building to envision plausible alternate futures of the U.S. health care system and links those broad futures to business-model-specific "load-bearing" assumptions. Because the framework we describe simultaneously addresses very broad and very specific issues, it can be easily applied to a broad range of health care issues by using the broad framework and business-specific assumptions for the particular case at hand. We illustrate this method using the case of disease management, pointing out that although the industry continues to grow rapidly, its future also contains great uncertainties.

The value of foresight: how prospection affects decision-making.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread.

The Value of Foresight: How Prospection Affects Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco

2011-01-01

Traditional theories of decision-making assume that utilities are based on the intrinsic value of outcomes; in turn, these values depend on associations between expected outcomes and the current motivational state of the decision-maker. This view disregards the fact that humans (and possibly other animals) have prospection abilities, which permit anticipating future mental processes and motivational and emotional states. For instance, we can evaluate future outcomes in light of the motivational state we expect to have when the outcome is collected, not (only) when we make a decision. Consequently, we can plan for the future and choose to store food to be consumed when we expect to be hungry, not immediately. Furthermore, similarly to any expected outcome, we can assign a value to our anticipated mental processes and emotions. It has been reported that (in some circumstances) human subjects prefer to receive an unavoidable punishment immediately, probably because they are anticipating the dread associated with the time spent waiting for the punishment. This article offers a formal framework to guide neuroeconomic research on how prospection affects decision-making. The model has two characteristics. First, it uses model-based Bayesian inference to describe anticipation of cognitive and motivational processes. Second, the utility-maximization process considers these anticipations in two ways: to evaluate outcomes (e.g., the pleasure of eating a pie is evaluated differently at the beginning of a dinner, when one is hungry, and at the end of the dinner, when one is satiated), and as outcomes having a value themselves (e.g., the case of dread as a cost of waiting for punishment). By explicitly accounting for the relationship between prospection and value, our model provides a framework to reconcile the utility-maximization approach with psychological phenomena such as planning for the future and dread. PMID:21747755

Technological Prospection on Membranes Containing Silver Nanoparticles for Water Disinfection.

PubMed

Linhares, Aline Marques Ferreira; Grando, Rafaela Lora; Borges, Cristiano Piacsek; da Fonseca, Fabiana Valeria

2018-02-14

Membrane separation is an established technological process, and since 1980s, it has been used commercially at large industrial plants worldwide. Water and wastewater disinfection is one of the applications of membrane technologies, but fouling and biofouling are still a challenge for the sector. The use of silver nanoparticles in membranes has attracted research interest because of their biocidal action. This technology foresight study investigates the academic literature and patenting activity to map out the technological progress and difficulties in the area. One hundred and sixty-seven articles on the subject published between 2005 and 2017 were retrieved, and it was found that the greatest number of publications were undertaken in 2016. A wide range of materials being used to make membranes and institutions involved in researching this technology were identified. Fifty-nine patents of relevance were also retrieved, with 2011 and 2013 seeing the highest number of patent applications filed. The countries with the most academic output and priority patents are the United States and China, but no institution stands out from the others in this area. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Gene–culture interaction and the evolution of the human sense of fairness

PubMed Central

Liu, Tru-Gin; Lu, Yao

2016-01-01

How Darwinian evolution would produce creatures with the proclivity of Darwinian generosity, most of them voluntarily giving up the immediate benefit for themselves or their genes, remains a puzzle. This study targets a problem, the origin of human sense of fairness, and uses fairness-related genes and the social manipulation of Darwinian generosity as the key variables underlying the human sense of fairness, inequity aversion, as well as their relationships within cooperation, and the anticipation foresight of the way relationships are affected by resource division, given the assumption of randomly matched partners. Here we suggest a model in which phenotype will gradually converge towards the perfect sense of fairness along with the prospect of cooperation. Later, the sense of fairness will decrease but it is never extinct. Where social manipulation of Darwinian generosity overshadows genetics, the sense of fairness could be acute to the degree of social manipulation. Above all, there still exists a threshold in the degree of social manipulation, beyond which altruism dominates selfishness in human cooperation. Finally, we propose three new directions toward more realistic scenarios stimulated by recent development of the synergy between statistical physics, network science and evolutionary game theory. PMID:27562008

Government and Industry Issues for Expanding Commercial Markets into Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smitherman, David V., Jr.

2003-01-01

In 2002, the Foresight and Governance Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C, organized a "Global Foresight Workshop" in partnership with NASA and in cooperation with other Federal Agencies to provide integrated consideration of broad challenges for the 2lst century. Many long-range goals for the nation were discussed and selected, among them were space related goals of interest to NASA. During much of the Agency's history, NASA advanced studies have focused consistently on the challenges of science-driven space exploration and operations. However, workshop findings indicate little interest in these goals unless they can also solve national and global issues. Many technologies and space development studies indicate great potential to enable new, important commercial markets in space that could address the many global challenges facing America in this century. But communication of these ideas are lacking. In conclusion, it appears that the commercial development of space could have broad implications on many impending problems, including energy resources, environmental impact, and climate changes. The challenge will be to develop a consistent coordinated effort among the many industries and Agencies that should be involved in opening this new frontier for these new commercial markets.

Subcortical Correlates of Individual Differences in Aptitude

PubMed Central

Jung, Rex E.; Ryman, Sephira G.; Vakhtin, Andrei A.; Carrasco, Jessica; Wertz, Chris; Flores, Ranee A.

2014-01-01

The study of individual differences encompasses broad constructs including intelligence, creativity, and personality. However, substantially less research is devoted to the study of specific aptitudes in spite of their importance to educational, occupational, and avocational success. We sought to determine subcortical brain structural correlates of several broad aptitudes including Math, Vocabulary, Foresight, Paper Folding, and Inductive Reasoning in a large (N = 107), healthy, young (age range  = 16–29) cohort. Subcortical volumes were measured using an automated technique (FreeSurfer) across structures including bilateral caudate, putamen, globus pallidus, thalamus, nucleus accumbens, hippocampus, amygdala, and five equal regions of the corpus callosum. We found that performance on measures of each aptitude was predicted by different subcortical structures: Math – higher right nucleus accumbens volume; Vocabulary – higher left hippocampus volume; Paper Folding – higher right thalamus volume; Foresight – lower right thalamus and higher mid anterior corpus callosum volume; Inductive Reasoning – higher mid anterior corpus callosum volume. Our results support general findings, within the cognitive neurosciences, showing lateralization of structure-function relationships, as well as more specific relationships between individual structures (e.g., left hippocampus) and functions relevant to particular aptitudes (e.g., Vocabulary). PMID:24586770

FORE-Med - the development of a foresight methodology for the prioritisation of animal health research in the Mediterranean area up to 2030.

PubMed

Messori, Stefano; Zilli, Romano; Mariano, Valeria; Bagni, Marina

2017-03-31

Diseases evolve constantly and research is needed to face emerging new threats. Evidences suggest that the impact of such threats will have its peak in the Mediterranean area. The FORE‑Med, Foresight project for the Mediterranean, aims at identifying the future challenges on livestock health and aquaculture in this area, to ensure an effective coordination of research activities and the delivery of timely solution to emerging issues. One hundred experts with multidisciplinary background and coming from countries all around the Mediterranean basin were gathered to participate in a think‑tank to develop a Strategic Research Agenda on animal health for Mediterranean up to 2030. A tailored foresight methodology was implemented, merging the best fit for purpose techniques (e.g. '7 questions', Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental, and Political (STEEP), analysis, scenario building, and backcasting). Both remote and face‑to‑face debates were held, to ensure a fruitful exchanges and participation among experts. Research needs were identified and prioritised, both on relevance and on temporal scale. The implemented participative approach allowed for the definition of a research priority list for animal health and aquaculture in the Mediterranean, which served as a basis to build a strategic research agenda. The latter is expected to satisfy the sectors' needs and guarantee a much‑needed coordination for research activities in the Mediterranean area.

Technology Foresight For Youth: A Project For Science and Technology Education in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendal, Anne Louise

"Technology Foresight for Youth" is a project run by two science museums, two science centres and "Technology Foresight (Sweden)" an organization in which both business and scientists are represented. The project is designed to strengthen young people's interest in ongoing technological work, research and education. It should give them confidence in their own ability both to understand today's techniques including its influence on people's daily lives, and to influence future developments. One part of the project is aimed at school teachers, teacher cooperation groups and students in the age group 12 to 18 years. A second part encourages dialog and meetings by arranging debates, seminars, theatre, science demonstrations in cooperation with business representatives and scientists. A third important part of the project is a special exhibition to be shown at the four cooperating institutions: "To be where I am not - young people's dreams about the future". The exhibition is meant to be sensual, interactive and partly virtual. It will change and grow with time as young people contribute with their thoughts, visions and challenges. Young people in different parts of the country will be able to interact electronically with each other and with the virtual part of the exhibition. The main aim of the project is to develop new interactive pedagogic methods for science and technology based on young people's own visions about the future.

Foresight beyond the very next event: four-year-olds can link past and deferred future episodes

PubMed Central

Redshaw, Jonathan; Suddendorf, Thomas

2013-01-01

Previous experiments have demonstrated that by 4 years of age children can use information from a past episode to solve a problem for the very next future episode. However, it remained unclear whether 4-year-olds can similarly use such information to solve a problem for a more removed future episode that is not of immediate concern. In the current study we introduced 4-year-olds to problems in one room before taking them to another room and distracting them for 15 min. The children were then offered a choice of items to place into a bucket that was to be taken back to the first room when a 5-min sand-timer had completed a cycle. Across two conceptually distinct domains, the children placed the item that could solve the deferred future problem above chance level. This result demonstrates that by 48 months many children can recall a problem from the past and act in the present to solve that problem for a deferred future episode. We discuss implications for theories about the nature of episodic foresight. PMID:23847575

Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Rocklöv, Joacim; Penttinen, Pasi; Lindgren, Elisabet

2016-10-01

Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine-preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Validation of a Second-Generation Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Monitor in Children With Congenital Heart Disease.

PubMed

Nasr, Viviane G; Bergersen, Lisa T; Lin, Hung-Mo; Benni, Paul B; Bernier, Rachel S; Anderson, Michelle E; Kussman, Barry D

2018-01-09

Cerebral oximetry using near-infrared spectroscopy is a noninvasive optical technology to detect cerebral hypoxia-ischemia and develop interventions to prevent and ameliorate hypoxic brain injury. Cerebral oximeters are calibrated and validated by comparison of the near-infrared spectroscopy-measured cerebral O2 saturation (SctO2) to a "field" or reference O2 saturation (REF CX) calculated as a weighted average from arterial and jugular bulb oxygen saturations. In this study, we calibrated and validated the second-generation, 5 wavelength, FORE-SIGHT Elite with the medium sensor (source-detector separation 12 and 40 mm) for measurement of SctO2 in children with congenital heart disease. After institutional review board approval and written informed consent, 63 children older than 1 month and ≥2.5 kg scheduled for cardiac catheterization were enrolled. Self-adhesive FORE-SIGHT Elite medium sensors were placed on the right and left sides of the forehead. Blood samples for calculation of REF CX were drawn simultaneously from the aorta or femoral artery and the jugular bulb before (T1) and shortly after (T2) baseline hemodynamic measurements. FORE-SIGHT Elite SctO2 measurements were compared to the REF CX (REF CX = [0.3 SaO2] + [0.7 SjbO2]) using Deming regression, least squares linear regression, and Bland-Altman analysis. Sixty-one subjects (4.5 [standard deviation 4.4] years of age; 17 [standard deviation 13] kg, male 56%) completed the study protocol. Arterial oxygen saturation ranged from 64.7% to 99.1% (median 96.0%), jugular bulb venous oxygen saturation from 34.1% to 88.1% (median 68.2%), the REF CX from 43.8% to 91.4% (median 76.9%), and the SctO2 from 47.8% to 90.8% (median 76.3%). There was a high degree of correlation in SctO2 between the right and left sensors at a given time point (within subject between sensor correlation r = 0.91 and 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.94) or between T1 and T2 for the right and left sensors (replicates, within subject between time point correlation r = 0.95 and 95% CI, 0.92-0.96). By Deming regression, the estimated slope was 0.966 (95% CI, 0.786-1.147; P = .706 for testing against null hypothesis of slope = 1) with a y intercept of 2.776 (95% CI, -11.102 to 16.654; P = .689). The concordance correlation coefficient was 0.873 (95% CI, 0.798-0.922). Bland-Altman analysis for agreement between SctO2 and REF CX that accounted for repeated measures (both in times and sensors) found a bias of -0.30% (95% limits of agreement: -10.56% to 9.95%). This study calibrated and validated the FORE-SIGHT Elite tissue oximeter to accurately measure SctO2 in pediatric patients with the medium sensor.

Distorted temporal consciousness and preserved knowing consciousness in confabulation: a case study.

PubMed

La Corte, Valentina; George, Nathalie; Pradat-Diehl, Pascale; Barba, Gianfranco Dalla

2011-01-01

In this study we describe a patient, TA, who developed a chronic amnesic-confabulatory syndrome, following rupture of a right internal carotid siphon aneurysm. Our aim was to elucidate as fully as possible the nature of TA's impairment and to test the hypothesis of confabulation as reflecting a dysfunction of Temporal Consciousness, i.e., to become aware of something as part of a personal past, present or future. TA's confabulations were present in answers to questions tapping Temporal Consciousness, i.e., autobiographical episodic memory, orientation in time and place, and foresight of personal future. In contrast, confabulations were not observed in answers to questions tapping Knowing Consciousness, i.e., to become aware of something as a meaning or as an element of impersonal knowledge. In fact, he had normal access to semantic knowledge, including foresight of impersonal future. TA's brain MRI showed lesions involving the right hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus, fornix, mammillary bodies, and thalamus. Moreover TA showed sub-cortical lesions involving the caudate and putamen nuclei bilaterally, a lesion site not commonly described in amnesic-confabulatory syndrome. We suggest that this pattern of results is better accounted for within the framework of the Memory, Consciousness and Temporality Theory and reflects a specific distortion of Temporal Consciousness.

Vision Hampton Roads : economic performance measures, 2010 DASHBOARD.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

Mission: Provide leadership to focus on the strategic issues that will improve Hampton Roads' competitive position in the global economy. : Goal: With proper foresight, continuous planning and dynamic economic development, Hampton Roads will be recog...

Model Capabilities | Regional Energy Deployment System Model | Energy

Science.gov Websites

representation of those effects throughout the scenario. Because those effects are highly non-linear and other models, limited foresight, price penalties for rapid growth, and other non-linear effects

The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning.

PubMed

Rees, Gareth H; Crampton, Peter; Gauld, Robin; MacDonell, Stephen

2018-05-01

Health workforce planning aims to meet a health system's needs with a sustainable and fit-for-purpose workforce, although its efficacy is reduced in conditions of uncertainty. This PhD breakthrough article offers foresight as a means of addressing this uncertainty and models its complementarity in the context of the health workforce planning problem. The article summarises the findings of a two-case multi-phase mixed method study that incorporates actor analysis, scenario development and policy Delphi. This reveals a few dominant actors of considerable influence who are in conflict over a few critical workforce issues. Using these to augment normative scenarios, developed from existing clinically developed model of care visions, a number of exploratory alternative descriptions of future workforce situations are produced for each case. Their analysis reveals that these scenarios are a reasonable facsimile of plausible futures, though some are favoured over others. Policy directions to support these favoured aspects can also be identified. This novel approach offers workforce planners and policy makers some guidance on the use of complimentary data, methods to overcome the limitations of conventional workforce forecasting and a framework for exploring the complexities and ambiguities of a health workforce's evolution.

Employee engagement, boredom and frontline construction workers feeling safe in their workplace.

PubMed

Whiteoak, John W; Mohamed, Sherif

2016-08-01

Systems thinking is a philosophy currently prevalent within construction safety literature that is applied to understand and improve safety in sociotechnical systems. Among systems, the site-project organizational system is of particular interest to this paper. Using focus group and survey feedback research to learn about how safety incidents effect levels of construction workers engagement this paper reveals how a safety incident provides an opportunity to create a potential quality (productivity) upgrade within an organization. The research approach involved a qualitative study involving 27 frontline supervisors and a follow-up survey completed by 207 frontline workers in the Australian Asphalt and Pavement Industry. The focus group interviews supported the articulation of the concepts of tacit safety, explicit safety, situational awareness, foresight ability, practical intelligence and crew synergy. Our findings indicate that having regular shift changes and other job site workers being fatigued are influential on perceptions of tacit safety. An individual's foresight ability was found to be the most potent predictor of worker perceptions of work engagement. The paper explains that relatively small improvements in worker perceptions of safety can bring about significant improvements in employee engagement and productivity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospects for public participation on nuclear risks and policy options: innovations in governance practices for sustainable development in the European Union.

PubMed

O'Connor, M; van den Hove, S

2001-09-14

We outline the potential participative governance and risk management in application to technological choices in the nuclear sector within the European Union (EU). Well-conducted public participation, stakeholder consultation and deliberation procedures can enhance the policy process and improve the robustness of strategies dealing with high-stakes investment and risk management challenges. Key nuclear issues now confronting EU member states are: public concern with large-scale environmental and health issues; the Chernobyl accident (and others less catastrophic) whose effect has been to erode public confidence and trust in the nuclear sector; the maturity of the nuclear plant, hence the emerging prominence of waste transportation, reprocessing and disposal issues as part of historical liability within the EU; the nuclear energy heritage of central and eastern European candidate countries to EU accession. The obligatory management of inherited technological risks and uncertainties on large temporal and geographical scales, is a novel feature of technology assessment and governance. Progress in the nuclear sector will aid the development of methodologies for technological foresight and risk governance in fields other than the nuclear alone.

Airport disaster preparedness in a community context : final report, February 26, 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-02-26

In our current economic, climatic, and political environment, airports and their surrounding communities are seeking effective ways to address disaster planning with foresight, common sense, and economy. Airports are traditionally reliable, essential...

Transparent Democratic Foresight Strategies in the California EMF Program.

PubMed

Neutra, Raymond Richard; Delpizzo, Vincent

2002-01-01

A California Department of Health Services program dealt with possible health effects from Electric and Magnetic Fields (EMF) from power lines. With the advice of stakeholders, and well before any risk determinations were made, transparent policy analyses about the power grid and schools asked the question, "How confident must one be of how big an effect before one would adopt cheap or expensive EMF avoidance measures?" A risk evaluation was carried out with features that promoted transparency. It was formatted to provide a policy-neutral "degree of certainty of causality" to adherents of utilitarian, environmental justice, and libertarian policy frameworks. Though the program had many features advocated by adherents of the precautionary principle, it might be better characterized as following "Transparent Democratic Foresight Strategies," since no single principle justifies the strategies used in this participatory program, and it examined the pros and cons of options but made no recommendations, precautionary or otherwise.

Critical, agentic and trans-media: Frameworks and findings from a foresight analysis exercise on audiences

PubMed Central

Das, Ranjana; Ytre-Arne, Brita

2017-01-01

We write this article presenting frameworks and findings from an international network on audience research, as we stand 75 years from Herta Herzog’s classic investigation of radio listeners, published in Lazarsfeld and Stanton’s 1944 war edition of Radio Research. The article aims to contribute to and advance a rich strand of self-reflexive stock-taking and sorting of future research priorities within the transforming field of audience analysis, by drawing on the collective efforts of CEDAR – Consortium on Emerging Directions in Audience Research – a 14-country network (2015–2018) funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council, United Kingdom, which conducted a foresight analysis exercise on developing current trends and future scenarios for audiences and audience research in the year 2030. First, we wish to present the blueprint of what we did and how we did it – by discussing the questions, contexts and frameworks for our project. We hope this is useful for anyone considering a foresight analysis task, an approach we present as an innovative and rigorous tool for assessing and understanding the future of a field. Second, we present findings from our analysis of pivotal transformations in the field and the future scenarios we constructed for audiences, as media technologies rapidly change with the arrival of the Internet of Things and changes on many levels occur in audience practices. These findings not only make sense of a transformative decade that we have just lived through but they present possibilities for the future, outlining areas for individual and collective intellectual commitment. PMID:29276327

Steering vaccinomics innovations with anticipatory governance and participatory foresight.

PubMed

Ozdemir, Vural; Faraj, Samer A; Knoppers, Bartha M

2011-09-01

Vaccinomics is the convergence of vaccinology and population-based omics sciences. The success of knowledge-based innovations such as vaccinomics is not only contingent on access to new biotechnologies. It also requires new ways of governance of science, knowledge production, and management. This article presents a conceptual analysis of the anticipatory and adaptive approaches that are crucial for the responsible design and sustainable transition of vaccinomics to public health practice. Anticipatory governance is a new approach to manage the uncertainties embedded on an innovation trajectory with participatory foresight, in order to devise governance instruments for collective "steering" of science and technology. As a contrast to hitherto narrowly framed "downstream impact assessments" for emerging technologies, anticipatory governance adopts a broader and interventionist approach that recognizes the social construction of technology design and innovation. It includes in its process explicit mechanisms to understand the factors upstream to the innovation trajectory such as deliberation and cocultivation of the aims, motives, funding, design, and direction of science and technology, both by experts and publics. This upstream shift from a consumer "product uptake" focus to "participatory technology design" on the innovation trajectory is an appropriately radical and necessary departure in the field of technology assessment, especially given that considerable public funds are dedicated to innovations. Recent examples of demands by research funding agencies to anticipate the broad impacts of proposed research--at a very upstream stage at the time of research funding application--suggest that anticipatory governance with foresight may be one way how postgenomics scientific practice might transform in the future toward responsible innovation. Moreover, the present context of knowledge production in vaccinomics is such that policy making for vaccines of the 21st century is occurring in the face of uncertainties where the "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent and where no single one of these dimensions can be managed in isolation from the rest." This article concludes, however, that uncertainty is not an accident of the scientific method, but its very substance. Anticipatory governance with participatory foresight offers a mechanism to respond to such inherent sociotechnical uncertainties in the emerging field of vaccinomics by making the coproduction of scientific knowledge by technology and the social systems explicit. Ultimately, this serves to integrate scientific and social knowledge thereby steering innovations to coproduce results and outputs that are socially robust and context sensitive.

76 FR 55932 - National Advisory Council

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-09

... Preparedness, the Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI), the Emergency Management Institute, and the Radiological Emergency Preparedness (REP) Program. Additionally, members appointed on June 15, 2011, will be... radiological emergency preparedness. More information on the REP Program can be found online at http://www.fema...

SafeTrip 21 initiative : networked traveler foresighted driving field experiment, final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-04-01

The Networked Traveler Project was originally conceived to leverage the explosive rise of smartphones as a : communications gateway to bring real-time traveler assistance concepts from the ITS community to the American : people. The Networked Travele...

Histories of Developmental Education. CRDEUL Monograph.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundell, Dana Britt, Ed.; Higbee, Jeanne L., Ed.

This collection of papers on the history of developmental education includes: "Historical Perspectives: With Hindsight We Gain Foresight" (Normal Stahl); "Supporting the Research Mission" (David V. Taylor); "A Brief History of the American Council of Developmental Education Associations" (Hunter R. Boylan);…

GoFFish: Graph-Oriented Framework for Foresight and Insight Using Scalable Heuristics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

series of research challenges that arise from the above and related to: scalability, data partitioning, memory representation and storage, exe - cution...job with varied deadlines in Jan, 2013. Further, we also build an SPSP model using Jan, 2013 data post facto as an ideal case. Fig. 7 reports the...Advanced Studies on Collaborative Research . Riverton, NJ, USA: IBM Corp., 2009, pp. 101–111. [42] G. J. Nutt, “The evolution towards flexible workflow

Communicating Uncertain Experimental Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Alexander L.; Fischhoff, Baruch

2014-01-01

Four experiments examined when laypeople attribute unexpected experimental outcomes to error, in foresight and in hindsight, along with their judgments of whether the data should be published. Participants read vignettes describing hypothetical experiments, along with the result of the initial observation, considered as either a possibility…

Suggestions for Maintaining Educational Technology Programs in Hard-Pressed Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, John W.

1984-01-01

Discusses personnel development and inexpensive sources of equipment needed for successful educational technology programs in economically hard-pressed areas in the United States and in Third World countries. Surveys future technological trends and stresses need for planning and foresight. (CJM)

Addressing Hydro-economic Modeling Limitations - A Limited Foresight Sacramento Valley Model and an Open-source Modeling Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Increased scarcity of world water resources is inevitable given the limited supply and increased human pressures. The idea that "some scarcity is optimal" must be accepted for rational resource use and infrastructure management decisions to be made. Hydro-economic systems models are unique at representing the overlap of economic drivers, socio-political forces and distributed water resource systems. They demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation and integrated flexible system management. Further improvement of models, quality control practices and software will be needed for these academic policy tools to become accepted into mainstream water resource practice. Promising features include: calibration methods, limited foresight optimization formulations, linked simulation-optimization approaches (e.g. embedding pre-existing calibrated simulation models), spatial groundwater models, stream-aquifer interactions and stream routing, etc.. Conventional user-friendly decision support systems helped spread simulation models on a massive scale. Hydro-economic models must also find a means to facilitate construction, distribution and use. Some of these issues and model features are illustrated with a hydro-economic optimization model of the Sacramento Valley. Carry-over storage value functions are used to limit hydrologic foresight of the multi- period optimization model. Pumping costs are included in the formulation by tracking regional piezometric head of groundwater sub-basins. To help build and maintain this type of network model, an open-source water management modeling software platform is described and initial project work is discussed. The objective is to generically facilitate the connection of models, such as those developed in a modeling environment (GAMS, MatLab, Octave, "), to a geographic user interface (drag and drop node-link network) and a database (topology, parameters and time series). These features aim to incrementally move hydro- economic models in the direction of more practical implementation.

Technology Foresight and nuclear test verification: a structured and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noack, Patrick; Gaya-Piqué, Luis; Haralabus, Georgios; Auer, Matthias; Jain, Amit; Grenard, Patrick

2013-04-01

As part of its mandate, the CTBTO's nuclear explosion monitoring programme aims to maintain its sustainability, effectiveness and its long-term relevance to the verification regime. As such, the PTS is conducting a Technology Foresight programme of activities to identify technologies, processes, concepts and ideas that may serve said purpose and become applicable within the next 20 years. Through the Technology Foresight activities (online conferences, interviews, surveys, workshops and other) we have involved the wider science community in the fields of seismology, infrasound, hydroacoustics, radionuclide technology, remote sensing and geophysical techniques. We have assembled a catalogue of over 200 items, which incorporate technologies, processes, concepts and ideas which will have direct future relevance to the IMS (International Monitoring System), IDC (International Data Centre) and OSI (On-Site Inspection) activities within the PTS. In order to render this catalogue as applicable and useful as possible for strategy and planning, we have devised a "taxonomy" based on seven categories, against which each technology is assessed through a peer-review mechanism. These categories are: 1. Focus area of the technology in question: identify whether the technology relates to (one or more of the following) improving our understanding of source and source physics; propagation modelling; data acquisition; data transport; data processing; broad modelling concepts; quality assurance and data storage. 2. Current Development Stage of the technology in question. Based on a scale from one to six, this measure is specific to PTS needs and broadly reflects Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs). 3. Impact of the technology on each of the following capabilities: detection, location, characterization, sustainment and confidence building. 4. Development cost: the anticipated monetary cost of validating a prototype (i.e. Development Stage 3) of the technology in question. 5. Time to maturity: the number of years until the technology in question reaches Development Stage 3 (i.e. prototype validated). 6. Integration effort: the anticipated level of effort required by the PTS to fully integrate the technology, process, concept or idea into is verification environment. 7. Time to impact: the number of years until the technology is fully developed and integrated into the PTS verification environment and delivers on its full potential. The resulting database is coupled to Pivot, a novel information management software tool which offers powerful visualisation of the taxonomy's parameters for each technology. Pivot offers many advantages over conventional spreadhseet-interfaced database tools: based on shared categories in the taxonomy, users can quickly and intuitively discover linkages, communalities and various interpretations about prospective CTBT pertinent technologies. It is easily possible to visualise a resulting sub-set of technologies that conform to the specific user-selected attributes from the full range of taxonomy categories. In this presentation we will illustrate the range of future technologies, processes, concepts and ideas; we will demonstrate how the Pivot tool can be fruitfully applied to assist in strategic planning and development, and to identify gaps apparent on the technology development horizon. Finally, we will show how the Pivot tool together with the taxonomy offer real and emerging insights to make sense of large amounts of disparate technologies.

Out of Bounds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCollum, Sean

2012-01-01

Sports rivalries can energize school spirit. But keeping events respectful takes a dynamic blend of foresight, leadership and buy-in from the community. Sports rivalries are dynamic relationships with many moving parts--athletes, coaches, students, pep squads, parents and others. When it's healthy, fierce competition can engender respect as well…

Peripheral tissue oximetry: comparing three commercial near-infrared spectroscopy oximeters on the forearm.

PubMed

Hyttel-Sorensen, Simon; Hessel, Trine Witzner; Greisen, Gorm

2014-04-01

Estimation of regional tissue oxygenation (rStO2) by near infrared spectroscopy enables non-invasive end-organ oxygen balance monitoring and could be a valuable tool in intensive care. However, the diverse absolute values and dynamics of different devices, and overall poor repeatability of measurements are a problem. The aim of the present study is to test the hypothesis that INVOS 5100C, FORE-SIGHT and NONIN EQUANOX 7600 have similar properties concerning absolute values, repeatability, and sensitivity to changes in rStO2. To test repeatability the sensors were repositioned 20 times during hemodynamic steady state on the adult forearm. Afterwards six vascular occlusions by inflation of an upper arm cuff were done to achieve low oxygenation in the forearm. Absolute values were compared by repeated-measures ANOVA, repeatability was estimated by the within-subject standard deviation, Sw, and response to changing oxygenation by the down slope of rStO2 during vascular occlusion in the respective arm. 10 healthy adults, 21-29 years old, with double skinfolds on the forearm less than 10 mm participated. The median rStO2 was 70.7% (interquartile range (IQR) 7.7%), 68.4% (IQR 8.4%), and 64.6% (IQR 4.8) with INVOS, NONIN, and FORE-SIGHT, respectively, the median rate of decline was 13.2%/min (IQR 9.6), 22.8 %/min (IQR 18.0), and 10.8%/min (IQR 6.0), and the same-site repeatability was 2.9% (95% CI 2.4-3.3), 4.6% (CI 3.9-5.3), and 2.0% (CI 1.7-2.3). INVOS gave significantly higher steady state values than FORE-SIGHT, and NONIN had the steepest decline in rStO2, but the poorest repeatability. Two measures of signal-to-noise were similar among devices. This suggests that good repeatability comes at the expense of low sensitivity to changes in oxygenation. Values of rStO2 on the forearm from INVOS, NONIN and FORE-SIGTH cannot be used interchangeably.

A Delphi Technology Foresight Study: Mapping Social Construction of Scientific Evidence on Metagenomics Tests for Water Safety

PubMed Central

Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S.; Özdemir, Vural

2015-01-01

Access to clean water is a grand challenge in the 21st century. Water safety testing for pathogens currently depends on surrogate measures such as fecal indicator bacteria (e.g., E. coli). Metagenomics concerns high-throughput, culture-independent, unbiased shotgun sequencing of DNA from environmental samples that might transform water safety by detecting waterborne pathogens directly instead of their surrogates. Yet emerging innovations such as metagenomics are often fiercely contested. Innovations are subject to shaping/construction not only by technology but also social systems/values in which they are embedded, such as experts’ attitudes towards new scientific evidence. We conducted a classic three-round Delphi survey, comprised of 107 questions. A multidisciplinary expert panel (n = 24) representing the continuum of discovery scientists and policymakers evaluated the emergence of metagenomics tests. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first Delphi foresight study of experts’ attitudes on (1) the top 10 priority evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics tests for water safety, (2) the specific issues critical to governance of metagenomics innovation trajectory where there is consensus or dissensus among experts, (3) the anticipated time lapse from discovery to practice of metagenomics tests, and (4) the role and timing of public engagement in development of metagenomics tests. The ability of a test to distinguish between harmful and benign waterborne organisms, analytical/clinical sensitivity, and reproducibility were the top three evidentiary criteria for adoption of metagenomics. Experts agree that metagenomic testing will provide novel information but there is dissensus on whether metagenomics will replace the current water safety testing methods or impact the public health end points (e.g., reduction in boil water advisories). Interestingly, experts view the publics relevant in a “downstream capacity” for adoption of metagenomics rather than a co-productionist role at the “upstream” scientific design stage of metagenomics tests. In summary, these findings offer strategic foresight to govern metagenomics innovations symmetrically: by identifying areas where acceleration (e.g., consensus areas) and deceleration/reconsideration (e.g., dissensus areas) of the innovation trajectory might be warranted. Additionally, we show how scientific evidence is subject to potential social construction by experts’ value systems and the need for greater upstream public engagement on metagenomics innovations. PMID:26066837

NEWS: Design and creativity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2000-03-01

Delcam, a manufacturing software developer, has supplied substantial funding towards a UK Government initiative intended to revolutionize the study of design and technology in schools. The computer-aided design software for schools (CAD-CAM) programme will give students a bridge into industry by enabling them to employ video links with engineers at companies such as British Aerospace and Rolls Royce. They will then be able to convert their virtual reality designs into a finished product. When the revised National Curriculum comes into effect this year, CAD-CAM will become compulsory from Key Stage 3, reflecting the greater focus on work-related learning, as well as the added importance being given to Information and Communications Technology (ICT) within the curriculum. Under the new scheme, schools can use a range of software designed in the UK (currently used for such items as jet aircraft and Formula One racing cars), which is being made available free of charge. The Design and Technology Association is monitoring the programme and the schools taking part have had to propose targets, focused on curriculum innovation, pupil outcomes and staff development. Still on the theme of design is the `Young Foresight' project launched in January and inviting 13 to 14 year-olds to tackle the challenges of the future through designing a new product for the world of 2020. The aim here is to encourage creativity, enterprise and innovation among young people by giving them an idea of what is involved in the design and development of a successful product. The students will be supported by mentors drawn from the local business community and there will be related BBC schools television programmes early in March with classroom resources, teacher training and an interactive website. The first phase of the initiative, based on 100 schools from across England and Wales, should be completed by autumn 2000, with phase 2 for 3000 schools over a three-year period incorporating a further nine programmes reflecting the work of the national Foresight Panels. The national Foresight programme is about preparing for the future by identifying market drivers, threats and opportunities and using that knowledge to inform the decisions that need to be taken today. Details can be viewed at www.foresight.gov.uk And for those with any remaining untapped ingenuity, the deadline is fast approaching for this year's `Young Engineer for Britain' competition. Young people, either individually or in teams of up to four, are invited to demonstrate their engineering skills in an event with a total prize value of over £65 000. The individual winner takes away a personal prize of £2500 plus a trophy, and their school receives an additional £2500 for engineering teaching equipment. Entry details can be obtained from Young Engineers for Britain, Engineering Council, 10 Maltravers Street, London WC2R 3ER and the closing date is 28 April 2000 .

The Accuracy of a Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Cerebral Oximetry Device and Its Potential Value for Estimating Jugular Venous Oxygen Saturation

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Keita; MacLeod, David B; Grocott, Hilary P.; Moretti, Eugene W.; Ames, Warwick; Vacchiano, Charles

2014-01-01

Background An intriguing potential clinical use of cerebral oximeter measurements (SctO2) is the ability to noninvasively estimate jugular bulb venous oxygen saturation (SjvO2). Our purpose in this study was to determine the accuracy of the FORE-SIGHT® (CAS Medical Systems; Branford, CT), which is calibrated to a weighted average of 70% (SjvO2) and 30% arterial saturation, for Food and Drug Administration pre-market approval 510 (k) certification by adapting an industry standard protocol, ISO 9919:2005 [www.ISO.org] (used for pulse oximeters) and to evaluate the use of SctO2 and SpO2 measurements to noninvasively estimate jugular venous oxygen saturation (SnvO2). Methods Paired blood gas samples from the radial artery and the jugular venous bulb were collected from 20 healthy volunteers undergoing progressive oxygen desaturation from 100 to 70%. The blood sample pairs were analyzed via co-oximetry and used to calculate the approximate mixed vascular cerebral blood oxygen saturation, or reference SctO2 values (refSctO2), during increasing hypoxia. These reference values were compared to bilateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values recorded simultaneously with the blood gas draws to determine its accuracy. Bilateral SctO2 and SpO2 measurements were then used to calculate SnvO2 values which were compared to SjvO2. Results Two hundred forty-six arterial and 253 venous samples from 18 subjects were used in the analysis. The ipsilateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values showed a tolerance interval (TI) of [−10.72 10.90] Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) with standard error (SE) of 0.83 ± 0.073 with the refSctO2 values calculated using arterial and venous blood gases. The combined data had a CCC of 0. 81 + 0.059 with TI of [−9.22 9.40] with overall bias was 0.09% and amplitude of the root mean square of error after it was corrected with random effects analysis was 2.92%. The bias and variability values between the ipsilateral and the contralateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 measurements varied from person to person. The SnvO2 calculated from the ipsilateral SctO2 and SpO2 data showed a CCC + SE of 0.79 ± 0.088, TI = [−14.93 15.33], slope of 0.98, Y-Intercept of 1.14%) with SjvO2 values with a bias of 0.20% and an Arms of 4.08%. The SnvO2 values calculated independently from contralateral forehead FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values were not as correlated with the SjvO2 values (contralateral side CCC + SE = 0.72 ± 0.118, TI = [−14.86 15.20], slope of 0.66 and y-intercept of 20.36%). Conclusions The FORE-SIGHT cerebral oximeter was able to estimate oxygen saturation within the tissues of the frontal lobe under conditions of normocapnia and varying degrees of hypoxia (with 95% confidence interval of [−5.60 5.78] with ipsilateral blood ample data). These findings from healthy volunteers also suggest that the use of the calculated SnvO2 derived from SctO2 and SpO2 values may be a reasonable noninvasive method of estimating SjvO2 and therefore global cerebral oxygen consumption in the clinical setting. Further laboratory and clinical research is required to define the clinical utility of near-infrared spectroscopy determination of SctO2 and SnvO2 in the operating room setting. PMID:25313967

The accuracy of a near-infrared spectroscopy cerebral oximetry device and its potential value for estimating jugular venous oxygen saturation.

PubMed

Ikeda, Keita; MacLeod, David B; Grocott, Hilary P; Moretti, Eugene W; Ames, Warwick; Vacchiano, Charles

2014-12-01

An intriguing potential clinical use of cerebral oximeter measurements (SctO2) is the ability to noninvasively estimate jugular bulb venous oxygen saturation (SjvO2). Our purpose in this study was to determine the accuracy of the FORE-SIGHT(®) (CAS Medical Systems, Branford, CT), which is calibrated to a weighted average of 70% (SjvO2) and 30% arterial saturation, for Food and Drug Administration pre-market approval 510(k) certification by adapting an industry standard protocol, ISO 9919:2005 (www.ISO.org) (used for pulse oximeters), and to evaluate the use of SctO2 and SpO2 measurements to noninvasively estimate jugular venous oxygen saturation (SnvO2). Paired blood gas samples from the radial artery and the jugular venous bulb were collected from 20 healthy volunteers undergoing progressive oxygen desaturation from 100% to 70%. The blood sample pairs were analyzed via co-oximetry and used to calculate the approximate mixed vascular cerebral blood oxygen saturation, or reference SctO2 values (refSctO2), during increasing hypoxia. These reference values were compared to bilateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values recorded simultaneously with the blood gas draws to determine its accuracy. Bilateral SctO2 and SpO2 measurements were then used to calculate SnvO2 values which were compared to SjvO2. Two hundred forty-six arterial and 253 venous samples from 18 subjects were used in the analysis. The ipsilateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values showed a tolerance interval (TI) of [-10.72 to 10.90] and Lin concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) with standard error (SE) of 0.83 ± 0.073 with the refSctO2 values calculated using arterial and venous blood gases. The ipsilateral data had a CCC of 0.81 + 0.059 with TI of [-9.22 to 9.40] with overall bias of 0.09%, and amplitude of the root mean square of error after it was corrected with random effects analysis was 2.92%. The bias and variability values between the ipsilateral and the contralateral FORE-SIGHT SctO2 measurements varied from person to person. The SnvO2 calculated from the ipsilateral SctO2 and SpO2 data showed a CCC ± SE of 0.79 ± 0.088, TI = [-14.93 to 15.33], slope of 0.98, y-intercept of 1.14% with SjvO2 values with a bias of 0.20% and an Arms of 4.08%. The SnvO2 values calculated independently from contralateral forehead FORE-SIGHT SctO2 values were not as correlated with the SjvO2 values (contralateral side CCC + SE = 0.72 ± 0.118, TI = [-14.86 to 15.20], slope of 0.66, and y-intercept of 20.36%). The FORE-SIGHT cerebral oximeter was able to estimate oxygen saturation within the tissues of the frontal lobe under conditions of normocapnia and varying degrees of hypoxia (with 95% confidence interval of [-5.60 to 5.78] with ipsilateral blood sample data). These findings from healthy volunteers also suggest that the use of the calculated SnvO2 derived from SctO2 and SpO2 values may be a reasonable noninvasive method of estimating SjvO2 and therefore global cerebral oxygen consumption in the clinical setting. Further laboratory and clinical research is required to define the clinical utility of near-infrared spectroscopy determination of SctO2 and SnvO2 in the operating room setting.

Making the Most of Ourselves

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groombridge, Brian

2008-01-01

Foresight reports are meant to help "decision-makers" understand the possible future effects of their decisions. "Visions of the future", based on "robust science", should be used by policymakers "to inform government policy and strategy, and to improve how science and technology are used within government and by society". They are also intended…

Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Figueroa, Miguel A.

2018-01-01

Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

Stochastic game theory: for playing games, not just for doing theory.

PubMed

Goeree, J K; Holt, C A

1999-09-14

Recent theoretical advances have dramatically increased the relevance of game theory for predicting human behavior in interactive situations. By relaxing the classical assumptions of perfect rationality and perfect foresight, we obtain much improved explanations of initial decisions, dynamic patterns of learning and adjustment, and equilibrium steady-state distributions.

Nature in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montessori, Maria

2013-01-01

This piece of writing addresses the "boundless" garden created through the web of foresight and patience combined with the spontaneous activity necessary for growing food and harvesting the bounty. Most will be familiar with this unique writing by Montessori who suggests that it is not the work and actual produce of the garden but the…

Educating Gnosis/Making a Difference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Semetsky, Inna; Delpech-Ramey, Joshua A.

2011-01-01

The emergent field of Educational Futures has its beginning in futurology as a relatively new constellation of disciplines having a strong impact on policy in the form of foresight, scenario planning, and new utopian thinking. This article specifically focuses on Gilles Deleuze's unorthodox approach to epistemology as future-oriented and creative…

Important science--it's all about the SPIN.

PubMed

Casadevall, Arturo; Fang, Ferric C

2009-10-01

The importance of a scientific finding can be difficult to ascertain because it requires both subjective judgment and foresight. We propose criteria, based upon whether a discovery is sizeable (S), practical (P), integrated (I), and new (N), that can be used individually or collectively to systematically assess the importance of a finding.

National evaluation of the SafeTrip-21 initiative : final report networked traveler-foresighted driving.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-24

Through the U.S. Department of Transportations (USDOT) SafeTrip-21 initiative, the USDOT is testing a variety of technologies in a number of locations in California as well as along the I-95 corridor on the east coast. This document presents the e...

Science, Technology, Society: Opportunities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lux, Donald G., Ed.

1992-01-01

Recognizing the potential pitfalls resulting from a lack of human foresight lies at the heart of the science-technology-society (STS) movement. This issue of "Theory Into Practice" is the second part of a two-part series that examines the educational opportunities arising as educators attempt to develop student understanding of STS. In the first…

Foresight begins with FMEA. Delivering accurate risk assessments.

PubMed

Passey, R D

1999-03-01

If sufficient factors are taken into account and two- or three-stage analysis is employed, failure mode and effect analysis represents an excellent technique for delivering accurate risk assessments for products and processes, and for relating them to legal liability. This article describes a format that facilitates easy interpretation.

Factors affecting the performance of 5 cerebral oximeters during hypoxia in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Bickler, Philip E; Feiner, John R; Rollins, Mark D

2013-10-01

Cerebral oximetry is a noninvasive optical technology that measures frontal cortex blood hemoglobin-oxygen saturation. Commercially available cerebral oximeters have not been evaluated independently. Unlike pulse oximeters, there are currently no Food and Drug Administration standards for performance or accuracy. We tested the hypothesis that cerebral oximeters accurately measure a fixed ratio of the oxygen saturation in cerebral mixed venous and arterial blood. We evaluated the performance of 5 commercially available cerebral oximeters: the EQUANOX® 7600 in 3- and 4-wavelength versions (Nonin Medical, Plymouth, MN), FORE-SIGHT® (Casmed, Branford, CT), INVOS® 5100C (Covidien, Boulder, CO), and the NIRO-200NX® (Hamamatsu Photonics, Hamamatsu City, Japan) during stable isocapnic hypoxia in volunteers. Twenty-three healthy adults (14 men, 9 women) had sensors placed on each side of the forehead. The subject's inspired oxygen (FIO2) was then changed to produce 6 steady-state arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2) levels between 100% and 70%, while end-tidal CO2 was maintained constant. At each plateau, simultaneous blood samples from the jugular bulb and radial artery were analyzed with a hemoximeter (OSM-3, Radiometer Medical A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark). Each cerebral oximeter's bias was calculated as the difference between the instrument's reading (cerebral saturation, ScO2) with the weighted saturation of venous and arterial blood (Sa/vO2), as specified by each manufacturer (INVOS: 25% arterial/75% venous; FORE-SIGHT, EQUANOX, and NIRO: 30% arterial/70% venous). Five hundred forty-two comparisons between paired blood samples and oximeter readings were analyzed. The pooled root mean square error was 8.06%, a value higher than for pulse oximeters, which is ±3% by Food and Drug Administration standards. The mean % bias ± SD (precision) and root mean square errors were: FORE-SIGHT 1.76 ± 3.92 and 4.28; INVOS 0.05 ± 9.72 and 9.69; NIRO-200NX -1.13 ± 9.64 and 9.68; EQUANOX-3 λ 2.48 ± 8.12 and 8.47; EQUANOX-4 λ 2.84 ± 6.27 and 6.86. The FORE-SIGHT, NIRO-200NX, and EQUANOX-3 λ had significantly more positive bias at lower SaO2. The amount of bias during hypoxia was reduced when the bias was calculated on the basis of difference between oximeter reading and the arterial and mixed venous saturation difference rather than the weighted average of blood saturation, indicating that differences in the ratio between arterial and venous blood volumes account for some of the positive bias at low saturation. Dark skin pigment tended to produce more negative bias in all instruments but bias was significantly larger than zero only for the FORE-SIGHT oximeter. Bias was significantly more negative in women for INVOS and EQUANOX devices but not for the FORE-SIGHT device. While responsive to desaturation, cerebral oximeters exhibited large variation in reading errors between subjects, with mean bias possibly related to variations in the ratio of arterial and venous blood in the sampling area of the brain. This ratio is probably not fixed, as assumed by the manufacturers, but dynamically changes with hypoxia. Better understanding these factors could improve the performance of cerebral oximeters and help establish saturation or blood flow thresholds for brain well-being.

The right strategy and perseverance can make an IDS profitable.

PubMed

Coddington, D C; Moore, K D

2001-12-01

Results of a recent study of 11 leading integrated delivery systems (IDSs) belie the common perception that IDSs are incapable of turning a profit. The study determined that the primary factors driving the poor financial performance of IDSs are organizational complexity, payment reductions mandated by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, and a general lack of foresight regarding financial problems when embarking on an integration strategy. By implementing a wide range of initiatives to stem losses and improve financial performance, several of the case-study IDSs have accomplished dramatic financial turnarounds over the past three years, and all have achieved consistently stronger financial performance.

Game, Water, and People Up for Grabs: A Review Essay.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Robert H.

1979-01-01

This article asserts if Americans continue to pump, mine and extract natural resources they will inevitably confront the harsh but intractable facts of nature, and that a salvageable future must be one of limits, of new social controls and of recovering an old ethic which honors foresight, forebearance and sharing. (Author/RTS)

Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel

Treesearch

Robert L. Olson; David N. Bengston; Leif A. DeVaney; Trevor A.C. Thompson

2015-01-01

Wildland fire management faces unprecedented challenges in the 21st century: the increasingly apparent effects of climate change, more people and structures in the wildland-urban interface, growing costs associated with wildfire management, and the rise of high-impact fires, to name a few. Given these significant and growing challenges, conventional fire management...

Dream on: Visionary Educators and Their Big Ideas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waters, John K.

2010-01-01

It takes more than a vision to be called a visionary. One also needs the organization, determination, and spirit to see it through. Four educators are being chosen to be spotlighted as visionaries conceived, developed, and guided technology-driven initiatives perhaps initially thought to be impractical. But their unusual foresight allowed each of…

Whither Water? The Fragile Future of the World's Most Important Resource.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Bruce K.

1983-01-01

The water shortage problem can only be met by creating a linkage among water supply, sewage disposal, and storm-water control. At present, these basic components of water management are typically handled separately, as if water were an unlimited resource the use of which does not require much foresight. (RM)

Evolving Judgments of Terror Risks: Foresight, Hindsight, and Emotion--A Reanalysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischhoff, Baruch; Gonzalez, Roxana M.; Lerner, Jennifer S.; Small, Deborah A.

2012-01-01

The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in…

Technology Transfer and Innovation Initiatives in Strategic Management: Generating an Alternative Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Major, E.

2003-01-01

This paper taps the strategic management discipline to inform our understanding of technology transfer and innovation (TTI) initiatives. With special focus on the UK Foresight programme it considers the impacts that the resource-based and core competence approaches to strategy can have on understanding the nature and effectiveness of TTI…

Synchrotron radiation intensity and energy of runaway electrons in EAST tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, YK; Zhou, RJ; Hu, LQ; Chen, MW; Chao, Y.; EAST team

2018-05-01

Not Available Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11775263 and 11405219), the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program in the Field of Plasma Physics, China (Grant No. 11261140328), and the National Magnetic Confnement Fusion Science Program of China (Grant No. 2015GB102004).

Future Leadership Competencies: From Foresight to Current Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brien, Emma; Robertson, Phillipa

2009-01-01

Purpose: With tectonic plate shifting change and continuous uncertainty, a reliance on leadership competencies rooted in the past will no longer be successful. Instead, it is argued that the emerging business environment now demands a new set of leadership skills that are aligned to the requirements of the future. This paper aims to address these…

Technicians, Education and Equity--With the Benefit of Foresight?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Imrie, Bradford W.

This paper considers the sources and education of an adequate supply of technicians to ensure New Zealand's technological future. It deals with such questions as the source of technicians, and what their learning experiences and outcomes should be. Included in the paper are specific sections dealing with: (1) "Authority for Advanced…

Human Foresight and Moral Re-Education. The Work of the School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodson, Max R.

Schools can help students understand moral issues, generate social change, and prepare for the future by combining dialogue and inquiry methods in moral education programs. Based upon the educational philosophy of John Dewey, the dialogue-inquiry method is interpreted to include a process whereby two or more persons reveal their feelings and…

Scott Shuler's "Music and Education in the Twenty-First Century: A Retrospective"--Review and Response

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLain, Barbara Payne

2014-01-01

Predicting the future is a challenging task for music education, requiring both retrospection, analysis of current events, and foresight. This article examines several predictions from 2001 and challenges music educators to consider factors that may influence the future of teaching music in society.

INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES, IMITATION, AND STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: A SIGNALING FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE THE ADOPTION PROCESS OF AN INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STANDARD. (R827918)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

2017-04-01

The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local-scale view of the extent and depth of possible riverine flood events several days in advance by linking forecast river flow from a hydrological model to a global flood risk map. The Monitoring component provides a similar local-scale view of a flood inundation extent but in near real time, as an event unfolds, by combining the global flood risk map with observed river gauge telemetry. Immediately following an event, the maximum extent of the flood is also generated. Users of Flood Foresight will be able to receive current and forecast flood extents and depth information via API into their own GIS or analytics software. The set of tools is currently operational for the UK and Europe; the methods presented can be applied globally, allowing provision of service to any country or region. This project was supported by InnovateUK under the Solving Business Problems with Environmental Data competition.

Beyond nature and culture: a note on medicine in the age of molecular biology.

PubMed

Rheinberger, H J

1995-01-01

This paper is divided into two parts. In the first, I examine the relations among molecular biology, gene technology, and medicine, as well as some aspects of the consequences of these relations with respect to the human genome project. I argue that the prevailing momentum of early molecular biology resided in creating the technical means for an extracellular representation of intracellular configurations. As such, its medical impact was rather limited. With the advent of recombinant DNA technologies, a radical change of perspective ensued. The momentum of gene technology is based on the prospects of an intracellular representation of extracellular projects--the "rewriting" of life. Its medical impact is potentially unlimited. In the second part, I question the very opposition between nature and culture that implicitly underlies the notion of medicine as a "cultural system." I argue that both on a macroscopic level (global ecological changes) and on a microscopic level (genetic engineering), the "natural" and the "social" are no longer to be seen as ontologically different. In its uncanny oscillation between retrospection and foresight, between description and proclamation, and between assertion and hesitatiion, this essay translates an uneasiness that I have not been able to overcome while writing it. The essay conveys the tangled views of a hybrid author who himself cannot but oscillate between the perspectives of an actor in the field of molecular biology, a participant in the field of science studies, and a citizen.

A framework for developing foresight in natural resource management

Treesearch

Kay E. Strong

2012-01-01

This paper describes a fundamental framework for anticipating and influencing the future that has been used to prepare professional futurists at the University of Houston for more than 35 years. The overview of the framework addresses how futures researchers organize information about changes in the world (e.g., by defining the domain, or scope, of the forecasting...

Developing reforestation technology for southern pines: a historical perspective

Treesearch

James Barnett

2013-01-01

Early in the 20th century, the forests of the South were decimated by aggressive harvesting, resulting in millions of acres of forest land in need of reforestation. Foresighted individuals committed efforts to restore this harvested land to a productive condition. The effort required dedication, cooperation, and leadership. The efforts of this small cadre of...

Project One Hundred Thousand; Characteristics and Performance of "New Standards" Men. Description of Project One Hundred Thousand.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower and Reserve Affairs (DOD), Washington, DC.

Initiated in October 1966 by the Department of Defense, Project One Hundred Thousand accepts men who would not have qualified for military service under previous standards, and upgrades them medically and educationally. Major aims are to broaden opportunities for enlistment, equalize military service obligations, assure foresighted military…

Environmental futures research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Treesearch

Robert L. Olson

2012-01-01

Relatively little research on environmental futures has been carried out in the United States. An exception is the long-running futures research that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been conducting since the 1970s. This paper reviews past and current efforts toward developing a capacity for environmental foresight within the EPA, and discusses some...

Dust charging and levitating in a sheath of plasma containing energetic particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Jing; Zhao, Xiao-Yun; Lin, Bin-Bin

2018-02-01

Not Available Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11475223), the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China (Grant No. 2015GB101003), and the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program in the field of Plasma Physics (Grant Nos. 11261140328 and 2012K2A2A6000443).

Asynchronous online foresight panels: the case of wildfire management

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson

2015-01-01

Text-based asynchronous online conferencing involves structured online discussion and deliberation among multiple participants from multiple sites in which there is a delay in interaction between contributors. This method has been widely used for a variety of purposes in higher education and other settings, but has not been commonly used in futures research. This paper...

Learning while Earning: Worksite Literacy Programs. Foresight: Model Programs for Economic Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenfeld, Stuart A.; And Others

This paper describes four successful and innovative workplace-based literacy programs in the South. The first is a joint program for city municipal workers between the U.S. Naval Air Station in Memphis, Tennessee and the Memphis Literacy Coalition (Project Literacy-Memphis, Inc.). The second is a program at North Carolina State University in…

North American Forest Futures 2018-2090: Scenarios for Building a More Resilient Forest Sector

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Jonathan Peck; Robert Olson; Melissa Barros; Richard A. Birdsey; Daniel R. Williams; Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes; Francisco José Zamudio

2018-01-01

North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures...

Horizon scanning for environmental foresight: a review of issues and approaches

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

2013-01-01

Natural resource management organizations carry out a range of activities to examine possible future conditions and trends as part of their planning process, but the distinct approach of formal horizon scanning is often a missing component of strategic thinking and strategy development in these organizations. Horizon scanning is a process for finding and interpreting...

Futures research: A neglected dimension in environmental policy and planning

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

2012-01-01

The need for strategic foresight in an increasingly complex and rapidly changing world poses a formidable challenge to environmental planners and policy makers. Th is paper introduces futures research as an under used but fruitful set of approaches to addressing this challenge. Futures research is a transdisciplinary social science that uses a wide range of methods to...

Changing Education for a Changing World: Internationalizing Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Idogho, Philipa Omamhe; Eshiotse, Sunday Gabriel

2012-01-01

That change is permanent has never been an issue, but how to anticipate, adopt, equip, and re-position to optimize benefits of change is the heart of research. Thus, true to Marshall McLuhan's prophetic foresight, the world, indeed, has become a village where otherwise local events now exert profound global consequences. In this paper, the…

Early history of tree seedling nurseries in the South

Treesearch

James P. Barnett

2013-01-01

The forests in the South were devastated by aggressive harvesting that began following the Civil War. By the early in the 20th century, many millions of acres of land needed reforestation. Foresighted individuals began a committed effort to restore this land to a productive condition. This effort required dedication, innovation, cooperation, and leadership. The...

Behavioral Economics Applied to Energy Demand Analysis: A Foundation

EIA Publications

2014-01-01

Neoclassical economics has shaped our understanding of human behavior for several decades. While still an important starting point for economic studies, neoclassical frameworks have generally imposed strong assumptions, for example regarding utility maximization, information, and foresight, while treating consumer preferences as given or external to the framework. In real life, however, such strong assumptions tend to be less than fully valid. Behavioral economics refers to the study and formalizing of theories regarding deviations from traditionally-modeled economic decision-making in the behavior of individuals. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has an interest in behavioral economics as one influence on energy demand.

Drugs foresight 2020: a Delphi expert panel study.

PubMed

Lintonen, Tomi; Konu, Anne; Rönkä, Sanna; Kotovirta, Elina

2014-05-03

Historically substance misuse has been relatively common in western countries, but comparatively few Finns report drug use. The Drugs 2020 study aimed at foreseeing changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020. The Delphi method was used, utilizing drug experts of the EU national network in Finland. Marked growth was foreseen in drug use, especially in synthetic designer drugs and misuse of medicinal drugs. Significant increase was also expected in growing cannabis at home. However, the control of drug market was expected to shift more into the hands of organized crime. No consensus was reached on how drug prices will develop in the time period. Drug use is likely to remain punishable although the use and possession of cannabis may be treated less severely. It seems likely that health and social services resources will be directed towards medicinal treatment. Foresight can be utilized in preparing for the future; desirable developments can be fostered, and measures can be taken to curb probable but undesirable lines of development. Based on the results of this study, the experts' view is that it is highly likely that the Finnish society will have to prepare for an increase in the demand for drug-related care, both in terms of content of the care and financing the services. Also, the forecasted increase in the role of legal prescription medicine used as intoxicants will call for efforts not only in changing prescription practices but in border and police control measures, as well. Parallel developments have been foreseen in the UK and Sweden, and it is likely that similar trends will actualize also in other western countries.

Impact of extracranial contamination on regional cerebral oxygen saturation: a comparison of three cerebral oximetry technologies.

PubMed

Davie, Sophie N; Grocott, Hilary P

2012-04-01

Cerebral oximetry is a noninvasive technology using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to estimate regional cerebral oxygen saturation. Although NIRS cerebral oximetry is being increasingly used in many clinical settings, interdevice technologic differences suggest potential variation in the ability to accurately acquire brain oxygenation signals. The primary objective of this study was to determine if NIRS-derived regional cerebral oxygen saturation measurements accurately account for oxygen saturation contamination from extracranial tissue. Twelve healthy volunteers had each of three NIRS devices (FORE-SIGHT [CAS Medical Systems Inc; Brandford, CT], INVOS 5100C-PB [Covidien; Boulder, CO], and EQUANOX Classic 7600 [Nonin Medical Inc; Plymouth, MN]) randomly applied to the forehead. After this, a circumferential pneumatic head cuff was positioned such that when inflated, hypoxia-ischemia would be produced in the extracranial scalp tissue beneath the NIRS cerebral oximeters. Comparisons among the three devices were made of the NIRS measurements before and following hypoxia-ischemia produced in the scalp tissue with inflation of the head cuff. The induction of extracranial hypoxia-ischemia resulted in a significant reduction in regional cerebral oxygen saturation measurements in all three NIRS devices studied. At 5 min postinflation of the pneumatic head cuff, the INVOS demonstrated a 16.6 ± 9.6% (mean ± SD) decrease from its baseline (P = 0.0001), the FORE-SIGHT an 11.8 ± 5.3% decrease from its baseline (P < 0.0001), and the EQUANOX a 6.8 ± 6.0% reduction from baseline (P = 0.0025). Extracranial contamination appears to significantly affect NIRS measurements of cerebral oxygen saturation. Although the clinical implications of these apparent inaccuracies require further study, they suggest that the oxygen saturation measurements provided by cerebral oximetry do not solely reflect that of the brain alone.

Anterior cingulate dysfunction during choice anticipation in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Quintana, Javier; Wong, Tiffany; Ortiz-Portillo, Elena; Marder, Stephen R; Mazziotta, John C

2004-12-15

The anterior cingulate cortex (ACGC) participates in selective attention, working memory (WM), anticipation, and behavioral monitoring. Subjects with schizophrenia exhibit deficits in these mechanisms during selective attention and WM tasks. However, ACGC dysfunctions have not been specifically investigated during behavioral anticipation, whose deficits may relate to salient schizophrenic features such as foresight abnormalities and impaired social functioning and behavior. We thus studied ACGC function in relation to two aspects of WM, remembering information and anticipating responses, in control and schizophrenic subjects. We measured brain activation in eight subjects with schizophrenia and eight healthy volunteers using functional magnetic resonance imaging. All subjects performed stimulus-response delay tasks with color dots or facial expression diagrams as cues and either 50% or 100% response predictability, which emphasized demands on remembering the cues or anticipating the response for correct performance, respectively. We found a double dissociation of ACGC activation between subject groups and task type. In controls, the ACGC became intensely activated during response anticipation (more extensively and bilaterally when the cues were colors than when they were facial diagrams) but remained at resting activity levels during remembering. In schizophrenic patients, significant ACGC activation was seen only when remembering a percept (more extensively and bilaterally when it was a facial diagram than when it was a color) but not when anticipating a response. These results reveal an ACGC dysfunction during choice anticipation in schizophrenia and suggest that it might underlie the foresight deficits seen in schizophrenic patients.

Improving the Quality of the Supply-Demand-Match in Vocational Education and Training by Anticipation and "Matching Policy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lassnigg, Lorenz

2008-01-01

This article discusses the implications of a framework to improve matching supply and demand in VET by a policy to improve quality by using anticipation and foresight approaches. Analysis of the Austrian anticipation system identified some basic aspects such as policy. The analysis focused on two issues: the observation and measurement of…

Open Education 2030: Planning the Future of Adult Learning in Europe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castaño Muñoz, Jonatan; Redecker, Christine; Vuorikari, Riina; Punie, Yves

2013-01-01

Adult learning and open education have become key elements on the European Agenda. This paper presents the first results of a foresight activity that aims to contribute to an understanding of how "Opening up Education" can improve adult learning in Europe in the future. It argues that to open up adult learning two main challenges must be…

Theorizing "Oppressed Family Pedagogy": Critical Lessons from a Rural Black Family in the Post-"Brown" South

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Sherick

2005-01-01

The specific purpose of this article is twofold. First, the article addresses critical teaching and learning evident in two generations of one nuanced Black family, the Foresight family, who appear to be surviving and thriving during and after the Freedom of Choice era of rural public schooling. The phrase "nuanced Black family" is…

Setting up a horizon scanning system: a U.S. federal agency example

Treesearch

Andy Hines; David N. Bengston; Michael J. Dockry; Adam Cowart

2018-01-01

Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally...

Six States, One Destiny: Critical Issues for New England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mass, William; Soule, David C.

2005-01-01

Midway through the first decade of the 21st century, New England innovation and creative capacity are being challenged by other regions of the nation and the world. New England needs foresight to understand what its emerging economic sectors need to thrive in a changing demography. The region is losing 20- to 34-year-olds and seeing a growing…

Tic-Tac-Toe Performance as a Function of Maturational Level of Retarded Adolescents and Nonretarded Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitz, Herman H.; Winters, Emilia A.

1977-01-01

Available from: Ablex Publishing Corporation, 355 Chestnut Street, Norwood, New Jersey 07648. Two groups (36 Ss) of educable and trainable mentally retarded adolescents in an institution were compared with two groups (38 Ss) of nonretarded children (ages 8-9 years old) on a modified tic-tac-toe game for foresight in logical problem solving. (MH)

Ten principles for thinking about the future: a primer for environmental professionals

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

2017-01-01

Every decision we make is about the future, but most of us are never taught how to think critically about it. This guide addresses this issue by identifying and reviewing 10 principles for thinking about the future, along with related strategies for improving environmental foresight. The principles and strategies are drawn from the transdisciplinary field of futures...

Forest Fire Research--Hindsight and Foresight

Treesearch

C. E. Van Wagner

1987-01-01

The evolution of Forest fire research in Canada first is examined through the works of Wright and Beall, at the Petawawa National Forestry Institute in Ontario, then some lessons are drawn from the past that ought to bear on the future. Some opinions are delivered on the future course of research in fire danger rating, prescribed fire and the impacts of fire on the...

Preparing the Next Generation of STEM Innovators: Identifying and Developing Our Nation's Human Capital. NSB-10-33

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Science Foundation, 2010

2010-01-01

Scientific and technological innovation continues to play an essential role in catalyzing the creation of new industries, spawning job growth, and improving the quality of life in the United States and throughout the world. Innovation relies, in part, on individuals possessing the knowledge, skills, creativity, and foresight to forge new paths.…

Inadequate Yearly Progress: Unlocking the Secrets of NCLB

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoxby, Caroline M.

2005-01-01

As almost everyone knows by now, the central aim of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) law is to make every public-school student proficient in reading and math by the year 2014. It is a laudable goal, as the overwhelmingly bipartisan congressional support for the legislation in 2001 proved. The law's drafters even had the foresight to know that…

Strategic Planning For The Fire Service

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington...scenarios were drawn from FEMA’s Strategic Foresight Initiative, which identified drivers that are expected to impact emergency managers ’ operations in the...governmental budgets, emergency management , Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) grants, coercive federalism, 2007–2008 financial crisis

A New Perspective on the Quest for Education: The Saudi Arabian Way to Knowledge Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pavan, Annalisa

2013-01-01

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, thanks to the foresight and generosity of the Al Saud ruling family, has always devoted great efforts to the development of education. Investments in higher education, in particular, have increased exponentially in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to introduce some facts and figures about the new developments…

Planning Schools for 2050? First, Let's Get "Now" Right

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Franklin

2010-01-01

For 20 years, the author has promoted constructing today's schools with the future in mind, yet as many school districts begin planning for the year 2050, he is starting to think this foresight/forethought might actually be a distracting course of action. Some districts may try to plan so far into the future that they neglect the present. But,…

What Can What-When-Where (WWW) Binding Tasks Tell Us about Young Children's Episodic Foresight? Theory and Two Experiments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, James; Cheke, Lucy G.; Clayton, Nicola S.; Meltzoff, Andrew N.

2011-01-01

We analyze theoretical differences between conceptualist and minimalist approaches to episodic processing in young children. The "episodic-like" minimalism of Clayton and Dickinson (1998) is a species of the latter. We asked whether an "episodic-like" task (structurally similar to ones used by Clayton and Dickinson) in which participants had to…

[Nursing care perspectives and foresights

PubMed

Lecordier, Didier; Jovic, Ljiljana

2016-12-01

As a continuation of its work and of the seminar on nursing sciences education in 2014, the “Association de recherche en soins infirmiers” (Arsi) organized a seminar on the 3rd and-4th of June 2016 in Nantes entitled : “nursing : perspectives and foresights”. More than fifty participants from the francophone area representing various sectors of practice : clinical, teaching, management and students gathered to debate and produce benchmarks to support the development of nursing sciences in France and to draw future directions for clinical practice and training. The successive sessions made it possible to reflect, to confront opinions, to make proposals and to identify the terms of the problematic of care and nursing knowledge today and the methodological elements relating to foresight. At the end of this very creative seminar, new avenues of reflection emerged shifting our usual look at the nurse profession. Orientations for training and practice have been defined with different stakes depending on the level of training and professional commitment. The strong links between professional, scientific and academic discipline have also been clarified, highlighting the importance to hold a high theoretical and scientific requirement, rigorous clinical practice, strong professional commitment and effective leadership.

Prescient … and Not Always Accounted For: The Wisdom and Foresight of George A. Roeper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delisle, Jim; Ruff, Marcia

2016-01-01

When George A. Roeper enlisted the aid of Dr. A. Harry Passow and other leaders in the field to help George convert his Michigan independent school to focus on gifted children in 1956, there was only one other elementary school in the country at the time devoted exclusively to gifted child education. Though his wife and school cofounder,…

Faces from the past: profiles of those who led restoration of the South’s forests

Treesearch

James P. Barnett

2016-01-01

Early in the 20th century, the forests in the South were devastated by aggressive harvesting and many millions of acres of forest land needed reforestation. Foresighted individuals began a committed effort to restore this land to a productive condition. This effort required dedication, cooperation, and leadership. A small cadre of individuals led the restoration of the...

Real estate investments demand strategic planning, objectives.

PubMed

Bermas, N F

1991-10-01

Real estate may present a great opportunity for institutions to positively affect their bottom lines. But it takes planning and foresight to achieve a solid real estate plan. In the following article, the author describes the process necessary to develop a program that goes beyond converting empty buildings into nursing homes. The process goes from identifying strategic objectives to examining financial alternatives and preparing an implementation plan.

Foresight Group Roundtable: Fresh Thinking for Learning and Skills. Centre for Innovation in Learning--Positioning Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Learning and Skills Network (NJ3), 2010

2010-01-01

Creating a fertile space for debate and ideas in order to drive innovation in learning and skills is integral to LSN's (Learning and Skills Network's) mission. To achieve this LSN has pioneered a new approach to making learning work from classroom to boardroom--and created the Centre for Innovation in Learning. This new, independent think tank…

Plan View Pattern Control for Steel Plates through Constrained Locally Weighted Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shigemori, Hiroyasu; Nambu, Koji; Nagao, Ryo; Araki, Tadashi; Mizushima, Narihito; Kano, Manabu; Hasebe, Shinji

A technique for performing parameter identification in a locally weighted regression model using foresight information on the physical properties of the object of interest as constraints was proposed. This method was applied to plan view pattern control of steel plates, and a reduction of shape nonconformity (crop) at the plate head end was confirmed by computer simulation based on real operation data.

The W. K. Kellogg Foundation Program at the University of Akron: If We Had to Do It Over--Hindsight and Foresight.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeShon, David S.

A team leadership program for academic administration was undertaken at the University of Akron under Kellogg Foundation Funding. A screened sample of 108 persons was admitted to training, which consisted of role analysis, education in the structure and function of the university and higher education in general, team building, analysis of…

Defense AT&L. Volume 38, Number 5. September-October 2009

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

and downward spirals of emotion-driven sell-offs. Conceived and managed without great care and foresight , networked sys- tems function to spread bad...the Joint Project Manager for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Contamina- tion Avoidance in June 2009. An Unmanned Ground Vehicle Thrust area two... Project Manager for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Contamination Avoidance; the Navy Explosive Ordnance Disposal Technical Division; the Future

Evaluation of Nanocomposites for Shielding Electromagnetic Interference

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

ESD Electrostatic Discharge FAA Federal Aviation Administration FRP Fiberglass Reinforced Plastic GCR Galactic Cosmic Radiation GSM Grams...1.6 Summary This thesis presentation is divided into five chapters. Chapter I covers the background of space-based systems along with the present...amount of cosmic junk floating near earth is due to the lack of foresight and planning of early space policy. The race to space failed to implement

Blinding the Eyes of the Corps: Foresight at Last?

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

Figure 2: RF-4B ADAS Code Matrix Block ..................... 69 vii TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS AGL above ground level ATARS Advanced Air Reconnaissance...prior to 1995, the currently projected year for initial operational capability (IOC) of the Advanced Tactical Air Reconnaissance System ( ATARS ). 59...made a conscious commitment to participate in the development of the Advanced Tactical Airborne Reconnaissance System ( ATARS ), a CCD-based, "electro

Custodians of Quality: Mathematics Education in Australasia--Where from? Where at? Where to?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Peter

2014-01-01

As a contribution to honour the foresight of Ken Clements and John Foyster in founding MERGA [Mathematics Education Research Group of Australasia] so many years ago this paper is not a research paper in the usual sense. Rather it sets out to sample the context of Mathematics Education in Australasia and beyond (then and now) and to highlight some…

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

PubMed Central

Lind, Sophie E.; Bowler, Dermot M.; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the “memory island” task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the “animations” task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed. PMID:25538661

Spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and theory of mind in children with autism spectrum disorder: evidence for impairments in mental simulation?

PubMed

Lind, Sophie E; Bowler, Dermot M; Raber, Jacob

2014-01-01

This study explored spatial navigation alongside several other cognitive abilities that are thought to share common underlying neurocognitive mechanisms (e.g., the capacity for self-projection, scene construction, or mental simulation), and which we hypothesized may be impaired in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty intellectually high-functioning children with ASD (with a mean age of ~8 years) were compared to 20 sex, age, IQ, and language ability matched typically developing children on a series of tasks to assess spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking (also known as episodic foresight or prospection), theory of mind (ToM), relational memory, and central coherence. This is the first study to explore these abilities concurrently within the same sample. Spatial navigation was assessed using the "memory island" task, which involves finding objects within a realistic, computer simulated, three-dimensional environment. Episodic memory and episodic future thinking were assessed using a past and future event description task. ToM was assessed using the "animations" task, in which children were asked to describe the interactions between two animated triangles. Relational memory was assessed using a recognition task involving memory for items (line drawings), patterned backgrounds, or combinations of items and backgrounds. Central coherence was assessed by exploring differences in performance across segmented and unsegmented versions of block design. Children with ASD were found to show impairments in spatial navigation, episodic memory, episodic future thinking, and central coherence, but not ToM or relational memory. Among children with ASD, spatial navigation was found to be significantly negatively related to the number of repetitive behaviors. In other words, children who showed more repetitive behaviors showed poorer spatial navigation. The theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Trusted Autonomy: Concept Development in Technology Foresight

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

executing the response . UNCLASSIFIED 19 UNCLASSIFIED DST-Group-TR-3153 UNCLASSIFIED 20 Previous models explored autonomy through the lenses of...w /users to leam to tackle complex problems Robots are able to intanalise and use world models Controllers have multiple modules based on leru.ning...technology across society. It aims to describe usage or uptake, and evolving trends, in technological development over time. Through doing so, it seeks to

Quantity yields quality when it comes to creativity: a brain and behavioral test of the equal-odds rule

PubMed Central

Jung, Rex E.; Wertz, Christopher J.; Meadows, Christine A.; Ryman, Sephira G.; Vakhtin, Andrei A.; Flores, Ranee A.

2015-01-01

The creativity research community is in search of a viable cognitive measure providing support for behavioral observations that higher ideational output is often associated with higher creativity (known as the equal-odds rule). One such measure has included divergent thinking: the production of many examples or uses for a common or single object or image. We sought to test the equal-odds rule using a measure of divergent thinking, and applied the consensual assessment technique to determine creative responses as opposed to merely original responses. We also sought to determine structural brain correlates of both ideational fluency and ideational creativity. Two-hundred forty-six subjects were subjected to a broad battery of behavioral measures, including a core measure of divergent thinking (Foresight), and measures of intelligence, creative achievement, and personality (i.e., Openness to Experience). Cortical thickness and subcortical volumes (e.g., thalamus) were measured using automated techniques (FreeSurfer). We found that higher number of responses on the divergent thinking task was significantly associated with higher creativity (r = 0.73) as independently assessed by three judges. Moreover, we found that creativity was predicted by cortical thickness in regions including the left frontal pole and left parahippocampal gyrus. These results support the equal-odds rule, and provide neuronal evidence implicating brain regions involved with “thinking about the future” and “extracting future prospects.” PMID:26161075

Forecasting of the development of professional medical equipment engineering based on neuro-fuzzy algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaganova, E. V.; Syryamkin, M. V.

2015-11-01

The purpose of the research is the development of evolutionary algorithms for assessments of promising scientific directions. The main attention of the present study is paid to the evaluation of the foresight possibilities for identification of technological peaks and emerging technologies in professional medical equipment engineering in Russia and worldwide on the basis of intellectual property items and neural network modeling. An automated information system consisting of modules implementing various classification methods for accuracy of the forecast improvement and the algorithm of construction of neuro-fuzzy decision tree have been developed. According to the study result, modern trends in this field will focus on personalized smart devices, telemedicine, bio monitoring, «e-Health» and «m-Health» technologies.

Strategic Shift: Appraising Recent Changes in U.S. Defense Plans and Priorities

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-29

NDU Press, 2012). 9 Neyla Arnas and Warren Fishbein, Actionable Foresight Project, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, in...management, At the same time, leaders had to account for changes in warfare. This included changes across the range of combat bred by the...into account the ongoing stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In it, U.S. forces would be sized in order to: a. Conduct a major

3-D Characterization of Seismic Properties at the Smart Weapons Test Range, YPG

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-01

confidence limits around each interpolated value. Ground truth was accomplished through cross-hole seismic measurements and borehole logs. Surface wave... seismic method, as well as estimating the optimal orientation and spacing of the seismic array . A variety of sources and receivers was evaluated...location within the array is partially related to at least two seismic lines. Either through good fortune or foresight by the designers of the SWTR site

Factors Required for Successful Future Research in Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-06-01

to democracy and a market economy. The characteristics that this transition has in common with a complex system operating in its chaotic regime i...the Center for Science and Industrial Policy, Moscow. 4 T. J. Gordon and R. Pratt ! r • � .... 11ral Scanning, The� Hill Encyclopedia of Market ...foresight successful if it helped a firm beat a competitor or to secure greater market share. Some organizations rely on external futures

Challenges of Biobanking in South Africa to Facilitate Indigenous Research in an Environment Burdened with Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Tuberculosis, and Emerging Noncommunicable Diseases

PubMed Central

Christoffels, Alan; Grewal, Ravnit; Karam, Locunda A.; Rossouw, Catherine; Staunton, Ciara; Swanepoel, Carmen; van Rooyen, Beverley

2013-01-01

The high burden of infectious diseases and the growing problem of noncommunicable and metabolic disease syndromes in South Africa (SA) forces a more focused research approach to facilitate cutting-edge scientific growth and public health development. Increased SA research on these diseases and syndromes and the collection of associated biospecimens has ensured a plethora of biobanks created by individuals, albeit without the foresight of prospective and collective use by other local and international researchers. As the need for access to high-quality specimens in statistically relevant numbers has increased, so has the necessity for the development of national human biobanks in SA and across the Continent. The prospects of achieving sustainable centralized biobanks are still an emerging and evolving concept, primarily and recently driven by the launch of the H3Africa consortium, which includes the development of harmonized and standardized biobanking operating procedures. This process is hindered by a myriad of complex societal considerations and ethico-legal challenges. Efforts to consolidate and standardize biological sample collections are further compromised by the lack of full appreciation by national stakeholders of the biological value inherent in these collections, and the availability of high quality human samples with well-annotated data for future scientific research and development. Inadequate or nonexistent legislative structures that specifically regulate the storage, use, dispersal, and disposal of human biological samples are common phenomena and pose further challenges. Furthermore, concerns relating to consent for unspecified future uses, as well as access to information and data protection, are all new paradigms that require further consideration and public engagement. This article reviews important fundamental issues such as governance, ethics, infrastructure, and bioinformatics that are important foundational prerequisites for the establishment and evolution of successful human biobanking in South Africa. PMID:24835364

Nanotechnology in agriculture: prospects and constraints.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Siddhartha S

2014-01-01

Attempts to apply nanotechnology in agriculture began with the growing realization that conventional farming technologies would neither be able to increase productivity any further nor restore ecosystems damaged by existing technologies back to their pristine state; in particular because the long-term effects of farming with "miracle seeds", in conjunction with irrigation, fertilizers, and pesticides, have been questioned both at the scientific and policy levels, and must be gradually phased out. Nanotechnology in agriculture has gained momentum in the last decade with an abundance of public funding, but the pace of development is modest, even though many disciplines come under the umbrella of agriculture. This could be attributed to: a unique nature of farm production, which functions as an open system whereby energy and matter are exchanged freely; the scale of demand of input materials always being gigantic in contrast with industrial nanoproducts; an absence of control over the input nanomaterials in contrast with industrial nanoproducts (eg, the cell phone) and because their fate has to be conceived on the geosphere (pedosphere)-biosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere continuum; the time lag of emerging technologies reaching the farmers' field, especially given that many emerging economies are unwilling to spend on innovation; and the lack of foresight resulting from agricultural education not having attracted a sufficient number of brilliant minds the world over, while personnel from kindred disciplines might lack an understanding of agricultural production systems. If these issues are taken care of, nanotechnologic intervention in farming has bright prospects for improving the efficiency of nutrient use through nanoformulations of fertilizers, breaking yield barriers through bionanotechnology, surveillance and control of pests and diseases, understanding mechanisms of host-parasite interactions at the molecular level, development of new-generation pesticides and their carriers, preservation and packaging of food and food additives, strengthening of natural fibers, removal of contaminants from soil and water, improving the shelf-life of vegetables and flowers, clay-based nanoresources for precision water management, reclamation of salt-affected soils, and stabilization of erosion-prone surfaces, to name a few.

Evaluation of different near-infrared spectroscopy technologies for assessment of tissue oxygen saturation during a vascular occlusion test.

PubMed

Steenhaut, Kevin; Lapage, Koen; Bové, Thierry; De Hert, Stefan; Moerman, Annelies

2017-12-01

An increasing number of NIRS devices are used to provide measurements of peripheral tissue oxygen saturation (S t O 2 ). The aim of the present study is to test the hypothesis that despite technological differences between devices, similar trend values will be obtained during a vascular occlusion test. The devices compared are NIRO-200NX, which measures S t O 2 and oxyhemoglobin by spatially resolved spectroscopy and the Beer-Lambert law, respectively, and INVOS 5100C and Foresight Elite, which both measure S t O 2 with the Beer-Lambert law, enhanced with the spatial resolution technique. Forty consenting adults scheduled for CABG surgery were recruited. The respective sensors of the three NIRS devices were applied over the brachioradial muscle. Before induction of anesthesia, 3 min of ischemia were induced by inflating a blood pressure cuff at the upper arm, whereafter cuff pressure was rapidly released. Tissue oxygenation measurements included baseline, minimum and maximum values, desaturation and resaturation slopes, and rise time. Comparisons between devices were performed with the Kruskal-Wallis test with post hoc Mann-Whitney pairwise comparisons. Agreement was evaluated using Bland-Altman plots. Oxyhemoglobin measured with NIRO responded faster than the other NIRS technologies to changes in peripheral tissue oxygenation (20 vs. 27-40 s, p ≤ 0.01). When comparing INVOS with Foresight, oxygenation changes were prompter (upslope 311 [92-523]%/min vs. 114[65-199]%/min, p ≤ 0.01) and more pronounced (minimum value 36 [21-48] vs. 45 [40-51]%, p ≤ 0.01) with INVOS. Significant differences in tissue oxygen saturation measurements were observed, both within the same device as between different devices using the same measurement technology.

A Future With The United States Air Force Advanced Maintenance And Munitions Operations School: Securing Strategic Agility Through 2036

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

SCIENCES Advisor: Dr. Paul J. Springer Maxwell Air Force Alabama August 2015 / June 2016 DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release...experienced rapid changes in the way the Service performs its roles to best complement our nation’s warfighting capability. Fueled by technology, innovation ...requires foresight and a level of organization and training that is ready to operate in environments which are heavily contested, degraded, and

The radiology manager as a servant leader.

PubMed

Scott, Jason

2011-01-01

Servant leadership utilizes an alternative approach to power-based models by considering the needs of followers and collaborating with them to achieve organizational goals,which can generate higher staff satisfaction and promote a more positive working environment. Servant leadership principles include: listening, empathy, healing, awareness, persuasion, conceptualization, foresight, stewardship, commitment to the growth of people,and community building. Many researchers have addressed the need for healthcare organizations to adopt a servant leadership model because healthcare has an inherent servant nature.

Transforming Leadership in the FBI: A Recommendation for Strategic Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

move to another part of the country (rather than to innovate or to further develop bureau programs). The management system as it existed when I...Supervisory Special Agent Roger Trott who currently serves as the Executive Director of the FBI National Academy Associates. Trott championed the cause of...initiatives occurring in recent times have happened as a result of Trot’s foresight. When asked if the FBI is an organization that is well-led, Trott had

The Challenges Stemming from Demographic and Technology Issues Within the United Arab Emirates

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

setting. It was with Sheikh Zayed’s foresight that the government blended the desire to maintain traditions and to become an ever-progressive and modern... blend of positive methods of governance from the country’s rich past and effective methods of governance that are more modern in comparison. [The...holding positions that the new generation of Emiratis are able to replace as they graduate from higher learning institutions. This policy is

Trait impulsivity is associated with the risk of falls in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Smulders, Katrijn; Esselink, Rianne A; Cools, Roshan; Bloem, Bastiaan R

2014-01-01

Impulsivity is a "tendency to act prematurely without foresight." Clinical experience suggests that such impulsive behavior can impact on the fall risk in Parkinson's disease (PD), but this has never been tested. We investigated whether trait impulsivity is related to fall risk in a large cohort of PD patients. We also investigated whether trait impulsivity affects the fall risk differently for patients with more or less postural instability and gait disability (PIGD). 388 patients with PD (H&Y ≤ 3) completed the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11, higher scores indicating greater impulsivity) to assess trait impulsivity, including three subscales: motor impulsivity (e.g. "I do things without thinking"), attentional impulsivity (e.g. "I concentrate easily") and non-planning (e.g. "I plan tasks carefully"). Falls were registered prospectively for 6 months. Patients classified as non-fallers (0 falls, n = 237) were compared to recurrent PD fallers (>1 fall, n = 78). Total impulsivity scores were higher for recurrent fallers (59.5) compared to non-fallers (56.8; p = .012). This effect was predominantly driven by higher scores on the subscale for attentional impulsivity (p = .003). The difference in attentional impulsivity was independent of gender, disease severity, dopaminergic medication, and cognitive function. Motor and non-planning impulsivity did not differ between recurrent fallers and non-fallers. There was no evidence that impulsivity modulated the association between PIGD and fall risk. This is the first evidence that impulsivity, in particular in the attentional domain, is related to fall risk in PD.

National Energy Security and Reliance on Foreign Oil

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-12

One is the third largest solar power plant in the world, with a nominal capacity of 64 MW and maximum capacity of 75 MW, as of June 2007. Nevada Solar...metering bill proposed with such foresight in 2007 by a certain congressman from Washington State. Solar thermal plants will make a perfect team...comes mainly from plant life and animal waste–wood and dung are the leading biomass source. Biomass, in the form of wood, is the original fuel used

Applying the Israeli Practice of Reconstruction Following a Terrorist Attack as a Model for Cities in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank... innovation are offered the solutions to counter decreased resources and funding. “ Foresight tells us that the future will challenge us to be even... auditing process to identify any inappropriate practices and conduct, however, they do not sustain the system in any traditional way and would serve only

The control of invasive species on private property with neighbor-to-neighbor spillovers.

PubMed

Fenichel, Eli P; Richards, Timothy J; Shanafelt, David W

2014-10-01

Invasive pests cross property boundaries. Property managers may have private incentives to control invasive species despite not having sufficient incentive to fully internalize the external costs of their role in spreading the invasion. Each property manager has a right to future use of his own property, but his property may abut others' properties enabling spread of an invasive species. The incentives for a foresighted property manager to control invasive species have received little attention. We consider the efforts of a foresighted property manager who has rights to future use of a property and has the ability to engage in repeated, discrete control activities. We find that higher rates of dispersal, associated with proximity to neighboring properties, reduce the private incentives for control. Controlling species at one location provides incentives to control at a neighboring location. Control at neighboring locations are strategic complements and coupled with spatial heterogeneity lead to a weaker-link public good problem, in which each property owner is unable to fully appropriate the benefits of his own control activity. Future-use rights and private costs suggest that there is scope for a series of Coase-like exchanges to internalize much of the costs associated with species invasion. Pigouvian taxes on invasive species potentially have qualitatively perverse behavioral effects. A tax with a strong income effect (e.g, failure of effective revenue recycling) can reduce the value of property assets and diminish the incentive to manage insects on one's own property.

The control of invasive species on private property with neighbor-to-neighbor spillovers

PubMed Central

Fenichel, Eli P.; Richards, Timothy J.; Shanafelt, David W.

2013-01-01

Invasive pests cross property boundaries. Property managers may have private incentives to control invasive species despite not having sufficient incentive to fully internalize the external costs of their role in spreading the invasion. Each property manager has a right to future use of his own property, but his property may abut others’ properties enabling spread of an invasive species. The incentives for a foresighted property manager to control invasive species have received little attention. We consider the efforts of a foresighted property manager who has rights to future use of a property and has the ability to engage in repeated, discrete control activities. We find that higher rates of dispersal, associated with proximity to neighboring properties, reduce the private incentives for control. Controlling species at one location provides incentives to control at a neighboring location. Control at neighboring locations are strategic complements and coupled with spatial heterogeneity lead to a weaker-link public good problem, in which each property owner is unable to fully appropriate the benefits of his own control activity. Future-use rights and private costs suggest that there is scope for a series of Coase-like exchanges to internalize much of the costs associated with species invasion. Pigouvian taxes on invasive species potentially have qualitatively perverse behavioral effects. A tax with a strong income effect (e.g, failure of effective revenue recycling) can reduce the value of property assets and diminish the incentive to manage insects on one’s own property. PMID:25346573

Nonverbal patient with autism spectrum disorder and obstructive sleep apnea: use of desensitization to acclimatize to a dental appliance.

PubMed

Fetner, Maggie; Cascio, Carissa J; Essick, Gregory

2014-01-01

Patients with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) may have difficulty tolerating conventional dental treatment due to aberrant sensory responsiveness. The purpose of this report was to describe the successful treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in a nonverbal 20-year-old male patient with ASD using a dental appliance. A series of appointments prepared the patient for the required treatment procedures and desensitized him for use of the final appliance. The final appliance improved outcomes of a post-treatment sleep study, indicating successful treatment of OSA. Understanding the specific challenges of patients with ASD and the patience and foresight of providers in approaching these challenges, in collaboration with caregivers, can contribute to improved health outcomes for these patients.

Pattern Transitions in Bacterial Oscillating System under Nanofluidic Confinement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jie-Pan; Chou, Chia-Fu

2011-03-01

Successful binary fission in E. coli relies on remarkable oscillatory behavior of the MinCDE protein system to determine the exact division site. The most favorable models to explain this fascinating spatiotemporal regulation on dynamic MinDE pattern formation in cells are based on reaction-diffusion scenario. Although not fully understood, geometric factors caused by bacterial morphology play a crucial role in MinDE dynamics. In the present study, bacteria were cultured, confined and reshaped in various micro/nanofluidic devices, to mimic either curvature changes of cell peripherals. Fluorescence imaging was utilized to detail the mode transitions in multiple MinDE patterns. The understanding of the physics in multiple pattern formations is further complemented via in silico modeling. The study synergizes the join merits of in vivo, in vitro and in silico approaches, to grasp the insight of stochastic dynamics inherited from the noisy mesoscopic biophysics. We acknowledge support from the Foresight Project, Academia Sinica.

Nanotechnology in agriculture: prospects and constraints

PubMed Central

Mukhopadhyay, Siddhartha S

2014-01-01

Attempts to apply nanotechnology in agriculture began with the growing realization that conventional farming technologies would neither be able to increase productivity any further nor restore ecosystems damaged by existing technologies back to their pristine state; in particular because the long-term effects of farming with “miracle seeds”, in conjunction with irrigation, fertilizers, and pesticides, have been questioned both at the scientific and policy levels, and must be gradually phased out. Nanotechnology in agriculture has gained momentum in the last decade with an abundance of public funding, but the pace of development is modest, even though many disciplines come under the umbrella of agriculture. This could be attributed to: a unique nature of farm production, which functions as an open system whereby energy and matter are exchanged freely; the scale of demand of input materials always being gigantic in contrast with industrial nanoproducts; an absence of control over the input nanomaterials in contrast with industrial nanoproducts (eg, the cell phone) and because their fate has to be conceived on the geosphere (pedosphere)-biosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere continuum; the time lag of emerging technologies reaching the farmers’ field, especially given that many emerging economies are unwilling to spend on innovation; and the lack of foresight resulting from agricultural education not having attracted a sufficient number of brilliant minds the world over, while personnel from kindred disciplines might lack an understanding of agricultural production systems. If these issues are taken care of, nanotechnologic intervention in farming has bright prospects for improving the efficiency of nutrient use through nanoformulations of fertilizers, breaking yield barriers through bionanotechnology, surveillance and control of pests and diseases, understanding mechanisms of host-parasite interactions at the molecular level, development of new-generation pesticides and their carriers, preservation and packaging of food and food additives, strengthening of natural fibers, removal of contaminants from soil and water, improving the shelf-life of vegetables and flowers, clay-based nanoresources for precision water management, reclamation of salt-affected soils, and stabilization of erosion-prone surfaces, to name a few. PMID:25187699

Foresight Infectious Diseases China Project--a novel approach to anticipating future trends in risk of infectious diseases in China: methodology and results from an initial application.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Huang, J; Xie, Z

2009-07-09

The project devised a simple but novel methodology for identifying possible future trends in infectious diseases in animals and humans in China, of priority concern to the Chinese authorities. It used a model of disease drivers (social, economic, biological or environmental factors that affect disease outcomes, by changing the behaviour of diseases, sources or pathways) devised for the Foresight Programme in the United Kingdom. Nine families of drivers were adapted to Chinese circumstances and matrices were constructed to identify the likely relationship of single infectious diseases or families of diseases to the drivers. The likely future trends in those drivers in China were determined by interviews with 36 independent Chinese experts. These trends included not only potentially adverse animal and human movements but also opportunities for innovative surveillance methods, more use of hospitals, antimicrobials and vaccines. Some human behaviours and social trends were expected to increase the risk of infections (in particular sexually transmitted and healthcare-associated infections) while at the same time the experts thought the awareness of risk in the Chinese population would increase. The results suggested a number of areas where the Chinese authorities may experience difficulties in the future, such as rising numbers of healthcare-associated infections, zoonoses and other emerging diseases and sexually transmitted infections (including HIV). Not making firm predictions, this work identifies priority disease groups requiring surveillance and consideration of countermeasures as well as recommending strengthening basic surveillance and response mechanisms for unanticipatable zoonoses and other emerging disease threats.

Evidence for Precise Calendrical Observations in the 17th Century at the `Bruchhauser Steine', Olsberg, Northrhine-Westphalia, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinrücken, B.

The `Bruchhauser Steine', four large rocks of volcanic origin in southern Westphalia, form perfect foresights for calendrical observations from the surrounding country. The ancient walls and embankments on the `Istenberg' with the rocks as cornerstones were built 500 BC. In the landscape are placed shrines with images of Christian saints, erected in the late 17th and the early 18th century. The positions of these shrines can be interpreted as observing sites with respect to the stones. The foresights reach several degrees to the sky, so variations in the astronomical refraction are strongly suppressed. The most impressive observing site with a shrine of 1699 (8o31'13'' E, 51o18'49'' N) is exactly at the position to observe the summer solstice sunrise at the topmost rock, the `Feldstein'. The solstice sun rises between two stones and grazes the Feldstein at 6:20 CEST. Today the sun is obstructed 2'-3' by the stone. Taking into account the slight variation of the obliquity of the ecliptic of 2' since 1699 the grazing procedure at the time of erection was perfect, without any obstruction of the suns disc. Similar shrines are placed at positions to observe the sunrise on May 1st in the identical manner (8o29'39'' E, 51o18'41'' N) and the lunar declination minimum on the meridian (8o32'44'' E, 51o20'33'' N). Some evidence indicates a prehistoric origin of this calendrical system.

Ethnopharmacology in the work of Melville William Hilton-Simpson (1881-1938)--historical analysis and current research opportunities.

PubMed

Helmstädter, A

2016-06-01

In the early 20th century, the British anthropologist Melville William Hilton-Simpson (1881-1938) did explorations in Africa, mainly the Congo region and the Aurès region in Algeria. He showed considerable interest in local medicinal practices and plants used by the natives, mainly the Algerian Berbers. He left notes, letters and publications about traditional medicine which were screened for relevant information about medicinal plant use. His reports were compared with current knowledge and recent study results. Many plants described by Hilton-Simpson as therapeutically relevant could prove their efficacy in current studies which again shows that historical sources may exert some reliability. The study, however, unveiled a couple of plants reported as traditionally used, but neglected by modern science so far. These, including Marrubium supinum, Cynoglossum pictum (= C. creticum), Sonchus maritimus, and two Erodium species, are strongly recommended to be further studied. Foresightedly, this approach was already intended by Hilton-Simpson himself.

Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed Central

Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

PubMed

Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

2018-01-01

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

Reviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2007-09-01

WE RECOMMEND Energy Foresight Valuable and original GCSE curriculum support on DVD Developing Scientific Literacy: Using News Media in the Classroom This book helpfully evaluates science stories in today's media Radioactivity Explained and Electricity Explained Interactive software ideal for classroom use TEP Generator Wind-up generator specially designed for schools SEP Energymeter A joule meter with more uses than its appearance suggests Into the Cool: Energy Flow, Thermodynamics and Life This book explores the physics behind biology CmapTools Handy software for mapping knowledge and resources LogIT Black Box This hub contains multiple sensors for endless experimental fun WEB WATCH Water Web 2.0

Framing obesity in UK policy from the Blair years, 1997-2015: the persistence of individualistic approaches despite overwhelming evidence of societal and economic factors, and the need for collective responsibility.

PubMed

Ulijaszek, Stanley J; McLennan, Amy K

2016-05-01

Since 1997, and despite several political changes, obesity policy in the UK has overwhelmingly framed obesity as a problem of individual responsibility. Reports, policies and interventions have emphasized that it is the responsibility of individual consumers to make personal changes to reduce obesity. The Foresight Report 'Tackling Obesities: Future Choices' (2007) attempted to reframe obesity as a complex problem that required multiple sites of intervention well beyond the range of personal responsibility. This framing formed the basis for policy and coincided with increasing acknowledgement of the complex nature of obesity in obesity research. Yet policy and interventions developed following Foresight, such as the Change4Life social marketing campaign, targeted individual consumer behaviour. With the Conservative-Liberal Democrat government of 2011, intervention shifted to corporate and individual responsibility, making corporations voluntarily responsible for motivating individual consumers to change. This article examines shifts in the framing of obesity from a problem of individual responsibility, towards collective responsibility, and back to the individual in UK government reports, policies and interventions between 1997 and 2015. We show that UK obesity policies reflect the landscape of policymakers, advisors, political pressures and values, as much as, if not more than, the landscape of evidence. The view that the individual should be the central site for obesity prevention and intervention has remained central to the political framing of population-level obesity, despite strong evidence contrary to this. Power dynamics in obesity governance processes have remained unchallenged by the UK government, and individualistic framing of obesity policy continues to offer the path of least resistance. © 2016 World Obesity.

Highly impulsive rats: modelling an endophenotype to determine the neurobiological, genetic and environmental mechanisms of addiction

PubMed Central

Jupp, Bianca; Caprioli, Daniele; Dalley, Jeffrey W.

2013-01-01

Impulsivity describes the tendency of an individual to act prematurely without foresight and is associated with a number of neuropsychiatric co-morbidities, including drug addiction. As such, there is increasing interest in the neurobiological mechanisms of impulsivity, as well as the genetic and environmental influences that govern the expression of this behaviour. Tests used on rodent models of impulsivity share strong parallels with tasks used to assess this trait in humans, and studies in both suggest a crucial role of monoaminergic corticostriatal systems in the expression of this behavioural trait. Furthermore, rodent models have enabled investigation of the causal relationship between drug abuse and impulsivity. Here, we review the use of rodent models of impulsivity for investigating the mechanisms involved in this trait, and how these mechanisms could contribute to the pathogenesis of addiction. PMID:23355644

Genetics of impulsive behaviour

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Laura; Goldman, David

2013-01-01

Impulsivity, defined as the tendency to act without foresight, comprises a multitude of constructs and is associated with a variety of psychiatric disorders. Dissecting different aspects of impulsive behaviour and relating these to specific neurobiological circuits would improve our understanding of the etiology of complex behaviours for which impulsivity is key, and advance genetic studies in this behavioural domain. In this review, we will discuss the heritability of some impulsivity constructs and their possible use as endophenotypes (heritable, disease-associated intermediate phenotypes). Several functional genetic variants associated with impulsive behaviour have been identified by the candidate gene approach and re-sequencing, and whole genome strategies can be implemented for discovery of novel rare and common alleles influencing impulsivity. Via deep sequencing an uncommon HTR2B stop codon, common in one population, was discovered, with implications for understanding impulsive behaviour in both humans and rodents and for future gene discovery. PMID:23440466

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making.

Another Important News from the Neuronman: Malaysia's Neuroscience Group Moves upwards in Terms of Research, Creativity, and Innovation.

PubMed

Abdullah, Jafri Malin

2015-12-01

12 months ago the first Neuroscience special issue of the Malaysia Journal of Medical Sciences was born with the intention to increase the number of local publication dedicated to neurosciences. Since then many events happened in the neuroscience world of Malaysia, those considered major were the establishment of a Neurotechnology Foresight 2050 task force by the Academy of Medicine Malaysia as well as the launching of Malaysia as the 18th member to join the International Neuroinformatics Coordinating Facility on the 9th October 2015 which was officiated by the Deputy Ministers of Higher Education, Datuk Mary Yap.

System Safety and the Unintended Consequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Clifford

2012-01-01

The analysis and identification of risks often result in design changes or modification of operational steps. This paper identifies the potential of unintended consequences as an over-looked result of these changes. Examples of societal changes such as prohibition, regulatory changes including mandating lifeboats on passenger ships, and engineering proposals or design changes to automobiles and spaceflight hardware are used to demonstrate that the System Safety Engineer must be cognizant of the potential for unintended consequences as a result of an analysis. Conclusions of the report indicate the need for additional foresight and consideration of the potential effects of analysis-driven design, processing changes, and/or operational modifications.

Another Important News from the Neuronman: Malaysia’s Neuroscience Group Moves upwards in Terms of Research, Creativity, and Innovation

PubMed Central

ABDULLAH, Jafri Malin

2015-01-01

12 months ago the first Neuroscience special issue of the Malaysia Journal of Medical Sciences was born with the intention to increase the number of local publication dedicated to neurosciences. Since then many events happened in the neuroscience world of Malaysia, those considered major were the establishment of a Neurotechnology Foresight 2050 task force by the Academy of Medicine Malaysia as well as the launching of Malaysia as the 18th member to join the International Neuroinformatics Coordinating Facility on the 9th October 2015 which was officiated by the Deputy Ministers of Higher Education, Datuk Mary Yap. PMID:27006631

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Planetary exploration, Horizon 2061: A joint ISSI-EUROPLANET community foresight exercisse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Michel

2017-04-01

We will present the preliminary results of a foresight exercise jointly implemented by the Europlanet Research Infrastructure project of the European Union and by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) to produce a community Vision of Planetary Exploration up to the 2061 horizon, named H2061 for short. 2061 was chosen as a symbolic date corresponding to the return of Halley's comet into the inner Solar System and to the centennial of the first Human space flight. This Vision will be built on a con-current analysis of the four "pillars" of planetary exploration: (1) The key priority questions to be addressed in Solar System science; (2) The representative planetary missions that need to be flown to address and hopefully answer these questions; (3) The enabling technologies that will need to be available to fly this set of ambitious mis-sions; (4) The supporting infrastructures, both space-based and ground-based, to be made available. In this science-driven approach, we will build our Horizon 2061 Vision in three following steps. In step 1, an international community forum convened in Bern, Switzerland on September 13th to 15th, 2016 by ISSI and Europlanet identified the first two pillars: key questions and representative planetary missions. The outputs of step 1 will be used as inputs to step 2, an open community meeting focusing on the identification of pillars 3 and 4 which will be hosted by the EPFL in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Jan. 29th to Feb. 1st, 2018. Ultimately, the four pillars identified by steps 1 and 2 will be discussed and compared in the "synthesis" meeting of step 3, which will take place in Toulouse, France, on the occasion of the European Open Science Forum 2018 (ESOF 2018). Planetary Exploration Horizon 2061: scientific approach. Since 1995 and the discovery of the first exoplanet orbiting a main sequence star, we are living a revolution in planetary science: as of today, over 3000 exoplanets have been identified by a diversity of techniques, first by ground-based telescopes and more recently by space missions like Corot and Kepler. Many more are to come in the few decades ahead of us, bringing to our knowledge an ever-increasing num-ber of exoplanets. While the "exploration" of exoplan-etary systems will remain the privilege of space-based telescopes and remote sensing techniques for a long time, space exploration opens a far more detailed ac-cess to a far more limited number of systems and of constituting objects in the Solar System. Linking these two uniquely complementary lines of research lays the foundations of a new type of comparative science: the science of planetary systems. The science-based com-ponent of our foresight exercise is a contribution to this perspective which we will share with the EGU com-munity.

Finding a roadmap to achieve large neuromorphic hardware systems

PubMed Central

Hasler, Jennifer; Marr, Bo

2013-01-01

Neuromorphic systems are gaining increasing importance in an era where CMOS digital computing techniques are reaching physical limits. These silicon systems mimic extremely energy efficient neural computing structures, potentially both for solving engineering applications as well as understanding neural computation. Toward this end, the authors provide a glimpse at what the technology evolution roadmap looks like for these systems so that Neuromorphic engineers may gain the same benefit of anticipation and foresight that IC designers gained from Moore's law many years ago. Scaling of energy efficiency, performance, and size will be discussed as well as how the implementation and application space of Neuromorphic systems are expected to evolve over time. PMID:24058330

The case for renewed investment in the district nursing specialist practitioner qualification.

PubMed

Longstaff, Fiona

2013-09-01

District nursing as a profession has been under significant threat over the last few years due to a lack of foresight and funding, resulting in an undervalued and underinvested workforce. The once-heralded specialist practitioner programme was slowly decommissioned in all but a handful of universities, leaving no alternative but for community trusts to employ staff nurses in team leader roles without the development the added qualification gave them. In light of the renewed focus on the fundamental advancement of district nurses and recent Government publications clearly reinforcing the district nurse's role, this article argues for the need for educational commissioners and workforce planners to commit to continued investment in this vital profession.

Air pollution legislation and regulation in the european community: A review essay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Riordan, Timothy

Pollution control generally is moving from the specific to the general, from the local to the international, from reactive measures to foresight management, from emission based to technology forced, and from single media managed to integrated. These are trends only, but there is a persistence behind these trends. This suggests that air pollution legislation and regulation will be driven more by international protocols and commitments than by national interests. Since enforcement will remain primarily a national responsibility because individual countries vary in their enthusiasm to meet externally imposed air pollution legislation, the weak link in the regulatory chain may well prove to be practical implementation of legislative intent.

Complexity Science: A Mechanism for Strategic Foresight and Resiliency in National Security Decision-Making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ackermann, Mark R.; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Backus, George A.

Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited case s and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national - level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establishmore » its technical underpinnings is recommended.« less

A Review of Industrial Heat Exchange Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Junjie

2018-01-01

Heat exchanger is an energy exchange equipment, it transfers the heat from a working medium to another working medium, which has been wildly used in petrochemical industry, HVAC refrigeration, aerospace and so many other fields. The optimal design and efficient operation of the heat exchanger and heat transfer network are of great significance to the process industry to realize energy conservation, production cost reduction and energy consumption reduction. In this paper, the optimization of heat exchanger, optimal algorithm and heat exchanger optimization with different objective functions are discussed. Then, optimization of the heat exchanger and the heat exchanger network considering different conditions are compared and analysed. Finally, all the problems discussed are summarized and foresights are proposed.

Using servant leadership to facilitate healing after a drug diversion experience.

PubMed

Ramer, Lynne Marie

2008-08-01

Although much has been written about substance abuse in nursing, little attention has been paid to the reaction of a nurse's coworkers after he or she has been caught diverting drugs. The remaining staff members may enter into a grieving process, which can have a serious effect on the delivery of patient care and staff satisfaction. Devoting time and energy to addressing the challenges faced by staff members after a drug diversion experience is essential to reestablishing equilibrium in the department. Using the servant leadership model, managers can exemplify the characteristics of commitment, persuasion, awareness, and foresight to facilitate the grieving process and solidify staff cohesion to help ensure quality patient care.

Key Health Information Technologies and Related Issues for Iran: A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Hemmat, Morteza; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Saghafi, Fatemeh

2018-01-01

Background and Objective: Planning for the future of Health Information Technology (HIT) requires applying a systematic approach when conducting foresight studies. The aim of this study was to identify key health information technologies and related issues for Iran until 2025. Methods: This was a qualitative study and the participants included experts and policy makers in the field of health information technology. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted and data were analyzed by using framework analysis and MAXQDA software. Results: The findings revealed that the development of national health information network, electronic health records, patient health records, a cloud-based service center, interoperability standards, patient monitoring technologies, telehealth, mhealth, clinical decision support systems, health information technology and mhealth infrastructure were found to be the key technologies for the future. These technologies could influence the economic, organizational and individual levels. To achieve them, the economic and organizational obstacles need to be overcome. Conclusion: In this study, a number of key technologies and related issues were identified. This approach can help to focus on the most important technologies in the future and to priorities these technologies for better resource allocation and policy making. PMID:29854016

Effects of Changes in Arterial Carbon Dioxide and Oxygen Partial Pressures on Cerebral Oximeter Performance.

PubMed

Schober, Andrew; Feiner, John R; Bickler, Philip E; Rollins, Mark D

2018-01-01

Cerebral oximetry (cerebral oxygen saturation; ScO2) is used to noninvasively monitor cerebral oxygenation. ScO2 readings are based on the fraction of reduced and oxidized hemoglobin as an indirect estimate of brain tissue oxygenation and assume a static ratio of arterial to venous intracranial blood. Conditions that alter cerebral blood flow, such as acute changes in PaCO2, may decrease accuracy. We assessed the performance of two commercial cerebral oximeters across a range of oxygen concentrations during normocapnia and hypocapnia. Casmed FORE-SIGHT Elite (CAS Medical Systems, Inc., USA) and Covidien INVOS 5100C (Covidien, USA) oximeter sensors were placed on 12 healthy volunteers. The fractional inspired oxygen tension was varied to achieve seven steady-state levels including hypoxic and hyperoxic PaO2 values. ScO2 and simultaneous arterial and jugular venous blood gas measurements were obtained with both normocapnia and hypocapnia. Oximeter bias was calculated as the difference between the ScO2 and reference saturation using manufacturer-specified weighting ratios from the arterial and venous samples. FORE-SIGHT Elite bias was greater during hypocapnia as compared with normocapnia (4 ± 9% vs. 0 ± 6%; P < 0.001). The INVOS 5100C bias was also lower during normocapnia (5 ± 15% vs. 3 ± 12%; P = 0.01). Hypocapnia resulted in a significant decrease in mixed venous oxygen saturation and mixed venous oxygen tension, as well as increased oxygen extraction across fractional inspired oxygen tension levels (P < 0.0001). Bias increased significantly with increasing oxygen extraction (P < 0.0001). Changes in PaCO2 affect cerebral oximeter accuracy, and increased bias occurs with hypocapnia. Decreased accuracy may represent an incorrect assumption of a static arterial-venous blood fraction. Understanding cerebral oximetry limitations is especially important in patients at risk for hypoxia-induced brain injury, where PaCO2 may be purposefully altered.

DNA before Watson & Crick-The Pioneering Studies of J. M. Gulland and D. O. Jordan at Nottingham

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Harold; Hey, Michael J.

1996-10-01

A description placed in a historical context, of the physico-chemical investigations of DNA carried out in the period 1940-1950 by a group at University College, Nottingham led by J.M.Gulland and D.O.Jordan. The isolation of a pure sample of DNA from calf thymus was followed by its analysis by potentiometric titrations and by measurements at variable pH of viscosity and streaming birefringence. Unlike the phosphoric acid groups, the primary amino and enolic hydroxyl groups could only be titrated after prior treatment with strong acid or strong base. The conclusion of Gulland and Jordan, that extremes of pH caused liberation of amino and enolic hydoxyl groups by disruption of hydrogen bonds between neighbouring polynucleotide chains, proved to be of considerable importance. The article includes life histories of Gulland and Jordan, and reference to Linus Pauling's remarkable foresight during his Sir Jesse Boot Foundation Lecture delivered at Nottingham in 1948.

The potential behavioral and economic impacts of widespread HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor (statin) use.

PubMed

Gendle, Mathew H

2016-12-01

Dyslipidemia is a common pathology throughout the industrialized world, and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) are often administered to treat elevated lipid levels. Substantial concern has been raised regarding the aggressive clinical lowering of cholesterol, particularly in light of a growing body of research linking low circulating lipid levels with negative behavioral outcomes in both human samples and non-human primate models. In 2009, Goldstein and colleagues tentatively speculated that the greed, impulsiveness, and lack of foresight that lead to the worldwide economic collapse in 2007-2008 could have been caused (in part) by depressed population cholesterol levels resulting from the widespread use of statins by workers in the financial services industry. This paper reviews the literature that links low circulating lipid levels with neurobehavioral dysfunction, develops Goldstein and colleagues' initial speculation into a formal hypothesis, and proposes several specific studies that could rigorously empirically evaluate this hypothesis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving 'Vision 90:90:90'?

PubMed

Burman, Christopher J; Aphane, Marota; Delobelle, Peter

2016-01-01

UNAIDS' Vision 90:90:90 is a call to 'end AIDS'. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of 'ending AIDS'. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce 'weak signal detection' as a potential opportunity to fill this void. Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMaker(®) Collector(™) tool. Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals--but there is room for improvement. A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management. Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to 'ending AIDS'.

Spatial and Temporal Self-Calibration of a Hydroeconomic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Hydroeconomic modeling of water systems where risk and reliability of water supply are of critical importance must address explicitly how to model water supply uncertainty. When large fluctuations in annual precipitation and significant variation in flows by location are present, a model which solves with perfect foresight of future water conditions may be inappropriate for some policy and research questions. We construct a simulation-optimization model with limited foresight of future water conditions using positive mathematical programming and self-calibration techniques. This limited foresight netflow (LFN) model signals the value of storing water for future use and reflects a more accurate economic value of water at key locations, given that future water conditions are unknown. Failure to explicitly model this uncertainty could lead to undervaluation of storage infrastructure and contractual mechanisms for managing water supply risk. A model based on sequentially updated information is more realistic, since water managers make annual storage decisions without knowledge of yet to be realized future water conditions. The LFN model runs historical hydrological conditions through the current configuration of the California water system to determine the economically efficient allocation of water under current economic conditions and infrastructure. The model utilizes current urban and agricultural demands, storage and conveyance infrastructure, and the state's hydrological history to indicate the scarcity value of water at key locations within the state. Further, the temporal calibration penalty functions vary by year type, reflecting agricultural water users' ability to alter cropping patterns in response to water conditions. The model employs techniques from positive mathematical programming (Howitt, 1995; Howitt, 1998; Cai and Wang, 2006) to generate penalty functions that are applied to deviations from observed data. The functions are applied to monthly flows across key nodes on the network and to annual carryover storage at ground and surface water storage facilities. To our knowledge, this is the first hydroeconomic model to perform spatial and temporal calibration simultaneously. The base for the LFN model is CALVIN, a hydroeconomic optimization model of the California water system developed at the University of California, Davis (Draper, et al. 2003). The LFN model, programmed in GAMS, is nonlinear, which permits incorporation of dynamic groundwater pumping costs that reflect head elevation. Hydropower production, also nonlinear in storage levels, could be added in the future. In this paper, we describe model implementation and performance over a sequence of water years drawn from the historical hydrologic record in California. Preliminary findings indicate that calibration occurs within acceptable limits and simulations replicate base case results well. Cai, X., and Wang, D. 2006. "Calibrating Holistic Water Resources-Economic Models." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management November-December. Draper, A.J., M.W. Jenkins, K.W. Kirby, J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt. 2003. "Economic-Engineering Optimization for California Water Management." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(3):155-164. Howitt, R.E. 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77:329-342. Howitt, R.E. 1998. "Self-Calibrating Network Flow Models." Working Paper, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis. October 1998. class="ab'>

[Motivation as a basis of mental activity].

PubMed

Sudakov, K V

2006-01-01

Motivation is considered as a key component of systemic organization of mental activity. Forming on the stage of afferent synthesis, motivation determines activity of the subsequent systemic architectonic stages of mental acts: decision-making, construction of an acceptor of resulting actions, efferent synthesis and the very purposeful action. It is shown that motivation acts as an energy basis of mental activity. The foresight instrument of required resulting actions--an acceptor of resulting actions that, strongly linked to dominating motivation, is a leading guiding component of mental actions. A role of motivation in the processes of perception, memory, movement organization, intellectual and creative activity and their relationship to emotions are considered. A conception of motivation as a basis of intellect is formulated.

Engineering aids for the design of survivable defense communications transmission capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stover, H. A.

1984-01-01

Adequate military communications are essential to the security of the United States, especially in the various stages of major wars. Enough communications must survive to make effective use of our military forces and weaponry, even in the face of a concerted enemy effort to destroy those communications. An evolutionary approach to provide survivability is recommended. It must be provided by the design engineer. Afterthought and modification must be replaced with foresight and design. The engineer must make survivability a criterion in every design decision. The design engineer needs help with the challenges and associated details of successfully accomplishing this. The author discusses and recommends development of convenient-to-use survivability engineering design tools to provide this help.

Hindsight rather than foresight: reality versus the EU draft guideline on pharmaceuticals in the environment.

PubMed

O'Brien, Evelyn; Dietrich, Daniel R

2004-07-01

The strategy of passing much of European Union (EU) waste water through a sewage treatment plant (STP) before discharging it into rivers or lakes has done much to improve the quality of our inland waterways. But we still face a very worrying situation. Environmental problems have surfaced in conjunction with the STPs and their effluent recipients, and attention has turned to human pharmaceuticals and endocrine active substances, in particular, as another source of potential pollutants. Trying to assess the detrimental effects of these chemicals on the aquatic environment represents an extreme cost in terms of animals, time and finance. Instead, it would be better to go back to basics and to prevent entry of these substances into our aquatic environment.

Cerebral oximetry in cardiac and major vascular surgery.

PubMed

Fischer, G W; Silvay, G

2010-01-01

We describe the development and current applications of cerebral oximetry (based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy) that can be used during cardiac and major vascular surgery to determined brain tissue oxygen saturation. There are presently three cerebral oximetry devices with FDA approval in the United States to measure and monitor cerebral tissue oxygen saturation. 1. INVOS (Somanetics Corporation, Troy, MI - recently COVIDIEN, Boulder, CO); FORE-SIGHT (CAS Medical Systems, Inc. Branford, CT); EQUANOX (Nonin Medical Inc.Minnesota, MN). All devices are portable, non-invasive and easy to use in operating room and intensive care unit. The data provided in these communication may provided information for improvement of perioperative neuromonitoring techniques, and may be crucial in the design of future clinical trials.

Servant leadership.

PubMed

Wilson, R T

1998-01-01

As corporations are eagerly pursuing reengineering and reorganization, leadership functions are changing to champion these efforts. Traditionally, organizations have had a "top-down" management approach, however, there is a gradual shift to other leadership models. Servant leadership is being successfully implemented in many settings. Servant leadership, first popularized by Robert Greenleaf in 1970, puts serving others as the number one priority. Ten characteristics of a servant leader include: Listening, empathy, healing, awareness, persuasion, conceptualization, foresight, stewardship, commitment to the growth of people, and building community. Both servant leadership and the chaos theory have in common the central tenet of relationships. Since America is now approximately 80 percent a "service-economy," servant leadership can greatly benefit the individual employees, as well as help to facilitate the organization's pursuit of its changing strategic plans.

Consumer behaviour survey for assessing exposure from consumer products: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Schneider, Klaus; Recke, Selina; Kaiser, Eva; Götte, Sebastian; Berkefeld, Henrike; Lässig, Juliane; Rüdiger, Thomas; Lindtner, Oliver; Oltmanns, Jan

2018-05-23

Evaluating chemical exposures from consumer products is an essential part of chemical safety assessments under REACH and may also be important to demonstrate compliance with consumer product legislation. Modelling of consumer exposure needs input information on the substance (e.g. vapour pressure), the product(s) containing the substance (e.g. concentration) and on consumer behaviour (e.g. use frequency and amount of product used). This feasibility study in Germany investigated methods for conducting a consumer survey in order to identify and retrieve information on frequency, duration, use amounts and use conditions for six example product types (four mixtures, two articles): hand dishwashing liquid, cockpit spray, fillers, paints and lacquers, shoes made of rubber or plastic, and ball-pens/pencils. Retrospective questionnaire methods (Consumer Product Questionnaire (CPQ), and Recall-Foresight Questionnaire (RFQ)) as well as protocol methods (written reporting by participants and video documentation) were used. A combination of retrospective questionnaire and written protocol methods was identified to provide valid information in a resource-efficient way. Relevant information, which can readily be used in exposure modelling, was obtained for all parameters and product types investigated. Based on the observations in this feasibility study, recommendations are given for designing a large consumer survey.

Impulsive action and motivation.

PubMed

Frijda, Nico H

2010-07-01

This paper explores the way in which emotions are causal determinants of action. It argues that emotional events, as appraised by the individual, elicit changes in motive states (called states of action readiness), which in turn may (or may not) cause action. Actions can be elicited automatically, without prior intention (called impulsive actions), or intentionally. Impulsive actions reflect the simplest and biologically most general form in which emotions can cause action, since they require no reflection, no foresight, and no planning. Impulsive actions are determined conjointly by the nature of action readiness, the affordances perceived in the eliciting event as appraised, and the individual's action repertoire. Those actions from one's repertoire are performed that both match the perceived affordances and the aim of the state of action readiness. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ronald Dworkin on abortion and assisted suicide.

PubMed

Kamm, F M

2001-01-01

In the first part of this article, I raise questions about Dworkin's theory of the intrinsic value of life and about the adequacy of his proposal to understand abortion in terms of different ways of valuing life. In the second part of the article, I consider his argument in "The Philosophers' Brief on Assisted Suicide", which claims that the distinction between killing and letting die is morally irrelevant, the distinction between intending and foreseeing death can be morally relevant but is not always so. I argue that the killing/letting die distinction can be relevant in the context of assisted suicide, but also show when it is not. Then I consider why the intention/foresight distinction can be morally irrelevant and conclude by presenting an alternative argument for physician-assisted suicide.

Molecular pharming's foot in the FDA's door: Protalix's trailblazing story.

PubMed

Mor, Tsafrir S

2015-11-01

This short commentary examines the factors that led to Food and Drug Administration's approval of the first plant-derived biologic. In 2012, the first plant-derived protein pharmaceutical (biologic) was approved for commercial use in humans. The product, a recombinant form of human β-glucocerebrosidase marketed as ELELYSO, was developed by Protalix Biotherapeutics (Carmiel, Israel). The foresight to select this particular therapeutic product for development, flawless production pipeline, and serendipity seem to provide the key in explaining how ELELYSO became the first plant-derived biologic to achieve approval by Food and Drug Administration. While the circumstances that enabled Protalix and its scientists to become the first to arrive at this historic milestone are perhaps unique, it is anticipated that more biologics will follow suit in winning regulatory endorsement.

[Genetic factors in myocardial infarction].

PubMed

Hara, Masahiko; Sakata, Yasuhiko; Sato, Hiroshi

2013-02-01

One of the main mechanisms of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is plaque rupture or erosion followed by intraluminal thrombus formation and occlusion of the coronary arteries. Thus far, many underlying conditions or environmental factors, such as hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking or obesity, as well as a family history of coronary artery diseases have been identified as risks for the onset of AMI. These risks suggest that AMI occurs due to interactions between underlying conditions and multiple genetic susceptibilities. For this reason, many target gene-disease association studies have been performed with the recent introduction of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that have further revealed new genetic susceptibilities for AMI. GWAS is a way to examine many common genetic variants in different individuals to see if any variant is associated with a trait in a case-control fashion, and typically focuses on associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and traits. SNP on chromosome 9p21 is one of the robust susceptibility variants for AMI which has been identified by many GWAS. In this review, we overview the methodology of GWAS, introduce genetic variants identified by GWAS as those with susceptibility for AMI, and describe the foresight of using GWAS to investigate genetic susceptibility to AMI.

Localized Electron Heating by Strong Guide-Field Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xuehan; Sugawara, Takumichi; Inomoto, Michiaki; Yamasaki, Kotaro; Ono, Yasushi; UTST Team

2015-11-01

Localized electron heating of magnetic reconnection was studied under strong guide-field (typically Bt 15Bp) using two merging spherical tokamak plasmas in Univ. Tokyo Spherical Tokamak (UTST) experiment. Our new slide-type two-dimensional Thomson scattering system documented for the first time the electron heating localized around the X-point. The region of high electron temperature, which is perpendicular to the magnetic field, was found to have a round shape with radius of 2 [cm]. Also, it was localized around the X-point and does not agree with that of energy dissipation term Et .jt . When we include a guide-field effect term Bt / (Bp + αBt) for Et .jt where α =√{ (vin2 +vout2) /v∥2 } , the energy dissipation area becomes localized around the X-point, suggesting that the electrons are accelerated by the reconnection electric field parallel to the magnetic field and thermalized around the X-point. This work was supported by JSPS A3 Foresight Program ``Innovative Tokamak Plasma Startup and Current Drive in Spherical Torus,'' a Grant-in-Aid from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Fellows 15J03758.

Local and global analysis of a speculative housing market with production lag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campisi, Giovanni; Naimzada, Ahmad K.; Tramontana, Fabio

2018-05-01

We extend the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)], where the authors analyse a speculative housing market populated by heterogeneous interacting agents described by a two dimensional nonlinear discrete time dynamical system. They show the emergence of complicated dynamics through the occurrence of bifurcations for particular parameter combinations. We enlarge their model in several ways. On one hand, we introduce time lag in the supply side and we consider two new scenarios characterised by agents' expectations formation. First, naive expectations instead of perfect foresight are considered, while in the second scenario, we study a mix between the model of Dieci and Westerhoff [J. Evol. Econ. 22(2), 303-329 (2012)] and the one we propose. As a consequence, we, analytically and numerically, explain the appearance of instability in the housing market providing conditions on the parameters that lead to a bifurcation. On the other hand, thanks to further numerical simulations, we conduct a global analysis providing the structure of the basin of attractions of the map showing coexistence of attractors.

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

PubMed Central

Burman, Christopher J.; Aphane, Marota; Delobelle, Peter

2016-01-01

Abstract Introduction: UNAIDS’ Vision 90:90:90 is a call to ‘end AIDS’. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of ‘ending AIDS’. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce ‘weak signal detection’ as a potential opportunity to fill this void. Method: Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMaker® Collector™ tool. Results: Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals – but there is room for improvement. Discussion: A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management. Conclusion: Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to ‘ending AIDS’. PMID:26821952

Comprehensive study on the detrimental effects of fossil fuel exploration and pipe laying in deltaic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandeep Khanna, L.; Ramnath, K.; Monica, J.; Muthu, D.; Venkatasubramanian, C.

2017-07-01

Thanjavur is the “Granary of South India”. As the prosperous capital of Chola kingdom it was praised as “Chola Naadu Sorudaithu” (the land that had abundant food). Now, due to Cauvery water shortage issues, the farmers had to be content with single crop a year. Adding to the woes are urbanization and development programs which lack foresight or long term plans that exploit natural resources without a well-articulated thought process. Presently the net sown area in the deltaic region is about 11.87 lac hectares. In the guise of national interests, there is a pursuit of these regions by agencies- public sector undertakings with vested interests. The oil exploration in Cauvery basin (Narimanam block) by Public Sector Undertakings, estimated lignite reserves of 36000 million tonnes and gas reserves and 104.7 billion cubic metres (CBM Coal Gas Methane), which has placed the deltaic region in the corporate radar. Environmentalists and legislators have also turned a blind eye towards the detrimental aftermaths upon the execution of crude product explorations on our cultivable lands.

A Transparent Window into Biology: A Primer on Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Corsi, Ann K; Wightman, Bruce; Chalfie, Martin

2015-06-01

A little over 50 years ago, Sydney Brenner had the foresight to develop the nematode (round worm) Caenorhabditis elegans as a genetic model for understanding questions of developmental biology and neurobiology. Over time, research on C. elegans has expanded to explore a wealth of diverse areas in modern biology including studies of the basic functions and interactions of eukaryotic cells, host-parasite interactions, and evolution. C. elegans has also become an important organism in which to study processes that go awry in human diseases. This primer introduces the organism and the many features that make it an outstanding experimental system, including its small size, rapid life cycle, transparency, and well-annotated genome. We survey the basic anatomical features, common technical approaches, and important discoveries in C. elegans research. Key to studying C. elegans has been the ability to address biological problems genetically, using both forward and reverse genetics, both at the level of the entire organism and at the level of the single, identified cell. These possibilities make C. elegans useful not only in research laboratories, but also in the classroom where it can be used to excite students who actually can see what is happening inside live cells and tissues. Copyright © 2015 Corsi, Wightman, and Chalfie.

Addressing Risk in the Valuation of Energy Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Hammerstrom, Donald J.; Woodward, James T.

2017-06-26

Valuation is a mechanism by which potential worth of a transaction between two or more parties can be evaluated. Examples include valuation of transactive energy systems such as electric power system and building energy systems. Uncertainties can manifest while exercising a valuation methodology in the form of lack of knowledge or be inherently embedded in the valuation process. Uncertainty could also exist in the temporal dimension while planning for long-term growth. This paper discusses risk considerations associated with valuation studies in support of decision-making in the presence of such uncertainties. It is often important to have foresight of uncertain entitiesmore » that can impact real-world deployments, such as the comparison or ranking of two valuation studies to determine cost-benefit impacts to multiple stakeholders. The research proposes to address this challenge through simulation and sensitivity analyses to support ‘what-if’ analysis of well-defined future scenarios. This paper describes foundational value of diagrammatic representation techniques such as unified modeling language to understand the implications of not addressing some of the risk elements encountered during the valuation process. The paper includes examples from generation resource adequacy assessment studies (e.g. loss of load) to illustrate the principles of risk in valuation.« less

Engineering with uncertainty: monitoring air bag performance.

PubMed

Wetmore, Jameson M

2008-06-01

Modern engineering is complicated by an enormous number of uncertainties. Engineers know a great deal about the material world and how it works. But due to the inherent limits of testing and the complexities of the world outside the lab, engineers will never be able to fully predict how their creations will behave. One way the uncertainties of engineering can be dealt with is by actively monitoring technologies once they have left the development and production stage. This article uses an episode in the history of automobile air bags as an example of engineers who had the foresight and initiative to carefully track the technology on the road to discover problems as early as possible. Not only can monitoring help engineers identify problems that surface in the field, it can also assist them in their efforts to mobilize resources to resolve problem.

Guidelines for the use of cell lines in biomedical research

PubMed Central

Geraghty, R J; Capes-Davis, A; Davis, J M; Downward, J; Freshney, R I; Knezevic, I; Lovell-Badge, R; Masters, J R W; Meredith, J; Stacey, G N; Thraves, P; Vias, M

2014-01-01

Cell-line misidentification and contamination with microorganisms, such as mycoplasma, together with instability, both genetic and phenotypic, are among the problems that continue to affect cell culture. Many of these problems are avoidable with the necessary foresight, and these Guidelines have been prepared to provide those new to the field and others engaged in teaching and instruction with the information necessary to increase their awareness of the problems and to enable them to deal with them effectively. The Guidelines cover areas such as development, acquisition, authentication, cryopreservation, transfer of cell lines between laboratories, microbial contamination, characterisation, instability and misidentification. Advice is also given on complying with current legal and ethical requirements when deriving cell lines from human and animal tissues, the selection and maintenance of equipment and how to deal with problems that may arise. PMID:25117809

The artificial beetle, or a brief manifesto for engineered biomimicry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartl, Michael H.; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2015-03-01

The artificial beetle is possibly the Holy Grail for practitioners of engineered biomimicry. An artificial beetle could gather and relay data and images from compromised environments on earth and other planets to decision makers. It could also be used for surveillance of foes and friends alike, and will require ethical foresight and oversight. What would it take to develop an artificial beetle? Several biotemplating techniques can be harnessed for the replication of external structural features of beetle bodies, and thus preserve functionalities such as coloration of the exoskeleton and the hydrophobicity of wings. The body cavity must host a power supply, motors to move the wings for flight, sensors to capture ambient conditions and images, and data transmitters and receivers to communicate with a remote command center. All of these devices must be very small and reliable.

Guidelines for the use of cell lines in biomedical research.

PubMed

Geraghty, R J; Capes-Davis, A; Davis, J M; Downward, J; Freshney, R I; Knezevic, I; Lovell-Badge, R; Masters, J R W; Meredith, J; Stacey, G N; Thraves, P; Vias, M

2014-09-09

Cell-line misidentification and contamination with microorganisms, such as mycoplasma, together with instability, both genetic and phenotypic, are among the problems that continue to affect cell culture. Many of these problems are avoidable with the necessary foresight, and these Guidelines have been prepared to provide those new to the field and others engaged in teaching and instruction with the information necessary to increase their awareness of the problems and to enable them to deal with them effectively. The Guidelines cover areas such as development, acquisition, authentication, cryopreservation, transfer of cell lines between laboratories, microbial contamination, characterisation, instability and misidentification. Advice is also given on complying with current legal and ethical requirements when deriving cell lines from human and animal tissues, the selection and maintenance of equipment and how to deal with problems that may arise.

The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

PubMed Central

DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

2016-01-01

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

Integrating social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model to explore a behavioral model of telehealth systems.

PubMed

Tsai, Chung-Hung

2014-05-07

Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities.

Integrating Social Capital Theory, Social Cognitive Theory, and the Technology Acceptance Model to Explore a Behavioral Model of Telehealth Systems

PubMed Central

Tsai, Chung-Hung

2014-01-01

Telehealth has become an increasingly applied solution to delivering health care to rural and underserved areas by remote health care professionals. This study integrated social capital theory, social cognitive theory, and the technology acceptance model (TAM) to develop a comprehensive behavioral model for analyzing the relationships among social capital factors (social capital theory), technological factors (TAM), and system self-efficacy (social cognitive theory) in telehealth. The proposed framework was validated with 365 respondents from Nantou County, located in Central Taiwan. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to assess the causal relationships that were hypothesized in the proposed model. The finding indicates that elderly residents generally reported positive perceptions toward the telehealth system. Generally, the findings show that social capital factors (social trust, institutional trust, and social participation) significantly positively affect the technological factors (perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness respectively), which influenced usage intention. This study also confirmed that system self-efficacy was the salient antecedent of perceived ease of use. In addition, regarding the samples, the proposed model fitted considerably well. The proposed integrative psychosocial-technological model may serve as a theoretical basis for future research and can also offer empirical foresight to practitioners and researchers in the health departments of governments, hospitals, and rural communities. PMID:24810577

Relationship between Resilience and Self-regulation: A Study of Spanish Youth at Risk of Social Exclusion

PubMed Central

Artuch-Garde, Raquel; González-Torres, Maria del Carmen; de la Fuente, Jesús; Vera, M. Mariano; Fernández-Cabezas, María; López-García, Mireia

2017-01-01

The ability to self-regulate behavior is one of the most important protective factors in relation with resilience and should be fostered especially in at-risk youth. Previous research has characterized these students as having behaviors indicating lack of foresight. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothetical relationship between these personal variables. It was hypothesized that self-regulation would be associated with and would be a good predictor of resilience, and that low-medium-high levels of self-regulation would lead to similar levels of resilience. The participants were 365 students -aged 15 and 21- from Navarre (Spain) who were enrolled in Initial Vocational Qualification Programs (IVQP). For the assessment, the Connor Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) and the Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire (SSRQ) were applied. We carried out linear association analyses (correlational and structural) and non-linear interdependence analyses (MANOVA) between the two constructs. Relationships between them were significant and positive. Learning from mistakes (self-regulation) was a significant predictor of coping and confidence, tenacity and adaptation, and tolerance to negative situations (resilience). Likewise, low-medium-high levels of self-regulation correlated with scores on resilience factors. Implications of these results for educational practice and for future research are discussed. PMID:28473792

Midwives' experiences of labour care in midwifery units. A qualitative interview study in a Norwegian setting.

PubMed

Skogheim, Gry; Hanssen, Tove A

2015-12-01

In some economically developed countries, women's choice of birth care and birth place is encouraged. The aim of this study was to explore and describe the experiences of midwives who started working in alongside/free-standing midwifery units (AMU/FMU) and their experiences with labour care in this setting. A qualitative explorative design using a phenomenographic approach was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten strategically sampled midwives working in midwifery units. The analysis revealed the following five categories of experiences noted by the midwives: mixed emotions and de-learning obstetric unit habits, revitalising midwifery philosophy, alertness and preparedness, presence and patience, and coping with time. Starting to work in an AMU/FMU can be a distressing period for a midwife. First, it may require de-learning the medical approach to birth, and, second, it may entail a revitalisation (and re-learning) of birth care that promotes physiological birth. Midwifery, particularly in FMUs, requires an especially careful assessment of the labouring process, the ability to be foresighted, and capability in emergencies. The autonomy of midwives may be constrained also in AMUs/FMUs. However, working in these settings is also viewed as experiencing "the art of midwifery" and enables revitalisation of the midwifery philosophy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypopituitarism after irradiation in children

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wara, W.M.; Richards, G.E.; Grumbach, M.M. Kaplan, S.L.

1977-01-01

Nine children were referred to the University of California Medical Center, San Francisco, for growth evaluation. Each had received conventional radiation doses to the head for tumors not involving the hypothalamus or pituitary, and demonstrated clinical and laboratory evidence of hormonal deficiencies several years after treatment. Six had significant height retardation. Growth hormone deficiency was documented in all by lack of response to provocative insulin, arginine, and/or L-dopa stimulation. ACTH function was evaluated by plasma cortisol response to insulin hypoglycemia in 7; one had a subnormal response. Plasma gonadotropins were measured after lutenizing hormone releasing factor (LRF) in 7 patients;more » only one had an abnormal response for age and stage of sexual maturation. Foresight in treatment planning and careful follow-up of patients receiving irradiation to the head is critical, since hypothalamic-pituitary deficiencies which may occur insidiously over many years, can largely be compensated.« less

Was the Watchmaker Blind? Or Was She One-Eyed?

PubMed Central

Noble, Raymond; Noble, Denis

2017-01-01

The question whether evolution is blind is usually presented as a choice between no goals at all (‘the blind watchmaker’) and long-term goals which would be external to the organism, for example in the form of special creation or intelligent design. The arguments either way do not address the question whether there are short-term goals within rather than external to organisms. Organisms and their interacting populations have evolved mechanisms by which they can harness blind stochasticity and so generate rapid functional responses to environmental challenges. They can achieve this by re-organising their genomes and/or their regulatory networks. Epigenetic as well as DNA changes are involved. Evolution may have no foresight, but it is at least partially directed by organisms themselves and by the populations of which they form part. Similar arguments support partial direction in the evolution of behavior. PMID:29261138

Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.

2016-12-01

Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

A Sociotechnical Framework for Governing Climate Engineering

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Proposed ways of governing climate engineering have most often been supported by narrowly framed and unreflexive appraisals and processes. This article explores the governance implications of a Deliberative Mapping project that, unlike other governance principles, have emerged from an extensive process of reflection and reflexivity. In turn, the project has made significant advances in addressing the current deficit of responsibly defined criteria for shaping governance propositions. Three such propositions argue that (1) reflexive foresight of the imagined futures in which climate engineering proposals might reside is required; (2) the performance and acceptance of climate engineering proposals should be decided in terms of robustness, not optimality; and (3) climate engineering proposals should be satisfactorily opened up before they can be considered legitimate objects of governance. Taken together, these propositions offer a sociotechnical framework not simply for governing climate engineering but for governing responses to climate change at large. PMID:26973363

The complementary niches of anthropocentric and biocentric conservationists.

PubMed

Hunter, Malcolm L; Redford, Kent H; Lindenmayer, David B

2014-06-01

A divergence of values has become apparent in recent debates between conservationists who focus on ecosystem services that can improve human well-being and those who focus on avoiding the extinction of species. These divergent points of view fall along a continuum from anthropocentric to biocentric values, but most conservationists are relatively closer to each other than to the ends of the spectrum. We have some concerns with both positions but emphasize that conservation for both people and all other species will be most effective if conservationists focus on articulating the values they all share, being respectful of divergent values, and collaborating on common interests. The conservation arena is large enough to accommodate many people and organizations whose diverse values lead them to different niches that can, with good will and foresight, be far more complementary than competitive. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Food for thought: food systems, livestock futures and animal health.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Angela

2013-12-01

Global food security, livestock production and animal health are inextricably bound. However, our focus on the future tends to disaggregate food and health into largely separate domains. Indeed, much foresight work is either food systems or health-based with little overlap in terms of predictions or narratives. Work on animal health is no exception. Part of the problem is the fundamental misunderstanding of the role, nature and impact of the modern futures tool kit. Here, I outline three key issues in futures research ranging from methodological confusion over the application of scenarios to the failure to effectively integrate multiple methodologies to the gap between the need for more evidence and power and control over futures processes. At its core, however, a better understanding of the narrative and worldview framing much of the futures work in animal health is required to enhance the value and impact of such exercises.

Moral hazard.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2009-01-01

Civil societies set aside a common pool of resources to help those with whom chance has dealt harshly. Frequently we allow access to these common resources when bad luck is assisted by foolishness and lack of foresight. Sometimes we may even help ourselves to a few of those common assets since others are doing so and they are public goods, the cost of which is shared and has already been paid. Moral hazard is the questionable ethical practice of increasing opportunity for individual gain while shifting risk for loss to the group. Bailout is an example. What makes moral hazard so widespread and difficult to manage is that it is easier for individuals to see their advantage than it is for groups to see theirs. Runaway American healthcare costs can be explained in these terms. Cheating, overtreatment, commercialism, and other moral problems in dentistry can be traced to the interaction between opportunistic individual behavior and permissive group responses common in moral hazard.

Plant intelligence.

PubMed

Trewavas, Anthony

2005-09-01

Intelligent behavior is a complex adaptive phenomenon that has evolved to enable organisms to deal with variable environmental circumstances. Maximizing fitness requires skill in foraging for necessary resources (food) in competitive circumstances and is probably the activity in which intelligent behavior is most easily seen. Biologists suggest that intelligence encompasses the characteristics of detailed sensory perception, information processing, learning, memory, choice, optimisation of resource sequestration with minimal outlay, self-recognition, and foresight by predictive modeling. All these properties are concerned with a capacity for problem solving in recurrent and novel situations. Here I review the evidence that individual plant species exhibit all of these intelligent behavioral capabilities but do so through phenotypic plasticity, not movement. Furthermore it is in the competitive foraging for resources that most of these intelligent attributes have been detected. Plants should therefore be regarded as prototypical intelligent organisms, a concept that has considerable consequences for investigations of whole plant communication, computation and signal transduction.

Mechanism-based model of a mass rapid transit system: A perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legara, Erika Fille; Khoon, Lee Kee; Guang, Hung Gih; Monterola, Christopher

2015-01-01

In this paper, we discuss our findings on the spatiotemporal dynamics within the mass rapid transit (MRT) system of Singapore. We show that the trip distribution of Origin-Destination (OD) station pairs follows a power-law, implying the existence of critical OD pairs. We then present and discuss the empirically validated agent-based model (ABM) we have developed. The model allows recreation of the observed statistics and the setting up of various scenarios and their effects on the system, such as increasing the commuter population and the propagation of travel delays within the transportation network. The proposed model further enables identification of bottlenecks that can cause the MRT to break down, and consequently provide foresight on how such disruptions can possibly be managed. This can potentially provide a versatile approach for transport planners and government regulators to make quantifiable policies that optimally balance cost and convenience as a function of the number of the commuting public.

Moral absolutism and ectopic pregnancy.

PubMed

Kaczor, C

2001-02-01

If one accepts a version of absolutism that excludes the intentional killing of any innocent human person from conception to natural death, ectopic pregnancy poses vexing difficulties. Given that the embryonic life almost certainly will die anyway, how can one retain one's moral principle and yet adequately respond to a situation that gravely threatens the life of the mother and her future fertility? The four options of treatment most often discussed in the literature are non-intervention, salpingectomy (removal of tube with embryo), salpingostomy (removal of embryo alone), and use of methotrexate (MXT). In this essay, I review these four options and introduce a fifth (the milking technique). In order to assess these options in terms of the absolutism mentioned, it will also be necessary to discuss various accounts of the intention/foresight distinction. I conclude that salpingectomy, salpingostomy, and the milking technique are compatible with absolutist presuppositions, but not the use of methotrexate.

Recession, debt and mental health: challenges and solutions

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background During the economic downturn, the link between recession and health has featured in many countries' media, political, and medical debate. This paper focuses on the previously neglected relationship between personal debt and mental health. Aims Using the UK as a case study, this paper considers the public health challenges presented by debt to mental health. We then propose solutions identified in workshops held during the UK Government's Foresight Review of Mental Capital and Wellbeing. Results Within their respective sectors, health professionals should receive basic ‘debt first aid’ training, whilst all UK financial sector codes of practice should – as a minimum – recognise the existence of customers with mental health problems. Further longitudinal research is also needed to ‘unpack’ the relationship between debt and mental health. Across sectors, a lack of co-ordinated activity across health, money advice, and creditor organisations remains a weakness. A renewed emphasis on co-ordinated ‘debt care pathways’ and better communication between local health and advice services is needed. Discussion The relationship between debt and mental health presents a contemporary public health challenge. Solutions exist, but will require action and investment at a time of competition for funds. PMID:22477896

Environmental Impacts of Future Urban Deployment of Electric Vehicles: Assessment Framework and Case Study of Copenhagen for 2016-2030.

PubMed

Bohnes, Florence A; Gregg, Jay S; Laurent, Alexis

2017-12-05

To move toward environmentally sustainable transport systems, electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to internal combustion vehicles (ICVs). To ensure effectiveness of such deployment, holistic assessments of environmental impacts can help decision-makers determine optimized urban strategies in a long-term perspective. However, explicit guidance and conduct of such assessments are currently missing. Here, we therefore propose a framework using life cycle assessment that enables the quantification of environmental impacts of a transport system at full urban scale from a fleet-based, foresight perspective. The analysis of the passenger car fleet development in the city of Copenhagen for the years 2016-2030 is used as a proof-of-concept. We modeled and compared five powertrain technologies, and we assessed four fleet-based scenarios for the entire city. Our results showed relative environmental benefits from range-extended and fuel-cell EVs over ICVs and standard EVs. These results were found to be sensitive to local settings, like electricity grid mix, which could alter the relative environmental performances across EV technologies. The comprehensive framework developed here can be applied to other geographic areas and contexts to assess the environmental sustainability of transport systems.

[Objective Assessment of Emotion Processing. Forensic Case Report].

PubMed

Reyes, Ana Calzada; Gutiérrez Manso, Ana Teresa; González, Mariloly Acosta

2014-03-01

The main objective of the emotions is to ensure the homeostasis, the survival and the well-being of the organism. To demonstrate the usefulness of performing neurophysiological and neuropsychological assessments in patients, in order to demonstrate the significant role of the emotions in the execution of certain behaviours. A forensic psychiatric interview was conducted. EEG in vigil state was registered, the generators of current density to theta band were calculated, and the emotions recognition test was performed. The results of the psychiatric interview demonstrated that fear was an important element in acting impulsively, and lack of foresight of the accused. A substantial decrease was demonstrated in the ability to understand the scope of the acts and the direction of the behaviour during the time the crime occurred. The EEG showed alterations in frontal regions, and the generators of current density were located in frontal-temporal regions and occipital associative areas. It is recommended to associate these studies with the forensic psychiatric assessment, in order to increase the objectivity of the diagnoses formulated by medical experts. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Development of a new experimental device for long-duration magnetic reconnection in weakly ionized plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanai, Ryoma; Kaminou, Yasuhiro; Nishida, Kento; Inomoto, Michiaki

2016-10-01

Magnetic reconnection is a universal phenomenon which determines global structure and energy conversion in magnetized plasmas. Many experimental studies have been carried out to explore the physics of magnetic reconnection in fully ionized condition. However, it is predicted that the behavior of magnetic reconnection in weakly ionized plasmas such as solar chromosphere plasma will show different behavior such as ambipolar diffusion caused by interaction with neutral particles. In this research, we are developing a new experimental device to uncover the importance of ambipolar diffusion during magnetic reconnection in weakly ionized plasmas. We employ an inverter-driven rotating magnetic fields technique, which is used for generating steady azimuthal plasma current, to establish long-duration ( 1 ms) anti-parallel reconnection with magnetic field of 5 mT in weakly ionized plasma. We will present development status and initial results from the new experimental setup. This work was supported by JSPS A3 Foresight Program ``Innovative Tokamak Plasma Startup and Current Drive in Spherical Torus'', Giant-in Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) 15H05750, 15K14279, 26287143 and the NIFS Collaboration Research program (NIFS14KNWP004).

Optimized calculation of the synergy conditions between electron cyclotron current drive and lower hybrid current drive on EAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Bo-Jiang, Ding; Y, Peysson; J, Decker; Miao-Hui, Li; Xin-Jun, Zhang; Xiao-Jie, Wang; Lei, Zhang

2016-01-01

The optimized synergy conditions between electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) and lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) with normal parameters of the EAST tokamak are studied by using the C3PO/LUKE code based on the understanding of the synergy mechanisms so as to obtain a higher synergistic current and provide theoretical reference for the synergistic effect in the EAST experiment. The dependences of the synergistic effect on the parameters of two waves (lower hybrid wave (LHW) and electron cyclotron wave (ECW)), including the radial position of the power deposition, the power value of the LH and EC waves, and the parallel refractive indices of the LHW (N∥) are presented and discussed. Project supported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China (Grant Nos. 2011GB102000, 2012GB103000, and 2013GB106001), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11175206 and 11305211), the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program in the Field of Plasma Physics (Grant No. 11261140328), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. JZ2015HGBZ0472).

Foresight and awareness of incipient changes in a patient' clinical conditions--Perspectives of intensive care nurses.

PubMed

Kvande, Monica; Delmar, Charlotte; Lykkeslet, Else; Storli, Sissel Lisa

2015-10-01

The aim of this study was to explore the phenomenon of becoming aware of incipient changes in patient condition from the perspectives and experiences of intensive care nurses. This study involved close observations of and in-depth interviews with 11 experienced intensive care nurses. The text was analysed using a hermeneutic phenomenological method that was inspired by van Manen. This study was undertaken at two different high-technology intensive care units (ICUs) in Norwegian university hospitals. Nurses formed images of individual patients composed of signs (of changes in a patient's condition) that were sensory, measurable, and manifested as the mood of the nurse. The signs may be viewed as separate from and opposed to one another, but they are tightly interwoven and interact with one another. Care situations are powerful stimuli for the patient, and it is of great importance for nurses to become aware of signs in these situations. Nurses also ascribe that following the patient over time is important for becoming aware of signs. An awareness of incipient changes in patient clinical condition requires understanding the ever-changing dynamics of patient condition and dialogic images composed of signs. Care situations and the following of patients through shifts are essential in enabling nurses to detect these signs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Globalisation Reflected onto Architecture: Tall Buildings of Ankara-Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanju Gültekin, Ahmet

2017-10-01

Policy switching, radical socioeconomic changes, integration and globalisation were started in 1980s. New urban space developments have been accelerated in 1990s and provided urban space identity policies in 2000s. Luxurious shopping malls, hotels, and ultra-posh residences within the city and gated communities on city peripheries have been formed. Thus, the urban geography, urban silhouette and urban identity are being converted through tall buildings that signify the created prestige, status, and power in competition with the global capital. By the globalisation foresight the cities which have gotten ahead of the nation-state was seen. The buildings that converted into a symbolic (iconic) global product leads to an advantage in the race for attracting global investments and tourism, on behalf of the cities/urban districts. This process, which was initiated haphazardly in Turkey in the 1980s, has been on-going throughout the 1990s and especially in 2000s by means of the re-structuring of the government on a neo-liberal basis. The process is concurrently observable through the tall buildings and/or building blocks which match with urban regeneration projects, urban zoning plan revisions and fragmented zoning plans. In this study, the new global world order is evaluated by their status and architectural properties of selected tall and iconic/ultra-modern buildings in Ankara.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-01-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-11-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Review of Potential Characterization Techniques in Approaching Energy and Sustainability

DOE PAGES

LePoire, David

2014-03-20

Societal prosperity is linked to sustainable energy and a healthy environment. But, tough global challenges include increased demand for fossil fuels, while approaching peak oil production and uncertainty in the environmental impacts of energy generation. Recently, energy use was identified as a major component of economic productivity, along with capital and labor. Furthermore, other environmental resources and impacts may be nearing environmental thresholds as indicated by nine planetary environmental boundaries, many of which are linked to energy production and use. Foresight techniques could be applied to guide future actions which include emphasis on (1) energy efficiency to bridge the transitionmore » to a renewable energy economy, (2) continued research, development, and assessment of new technologies, (3) improved understanding of environment impacts including natural capital use and degradation, (4) exploration of GDP alternative measures that include both economic production and environmental impacts, and (5) international cooperation and awareness of longer-term opportunities and their associated potential scenarios. Examples from the U.S. and the international community illustrate challenges and potential.« less

Nudging toward a stable retirement.

PubMed

Kroncke, Charles

2018-01-01

The classical economics perspective is that public policy should be used to allow, not hinder, economic freedom. In some cases it may be possible for government to gently nudge individuals to change their behavior without hindering freedom. One example is a change from the default on pension program enrollment forms from "not contribute" to "contribute." This is generally viewed as a good nudge that gets people to do what the majority of people view as generally the correct behavior. However, a choice to contribute to a pension fund is not always in the individual's best interest - thus, it is a nudge, not a mandate. To maintain personal liberty, individuals should be fully informed about the consequences of their choice and the motives of the political authority. Saving for retirement is a complex issue, and pension contribution decisions are often made with little foresight or information. Pension contribution nudges may not always be freedom preserving because of complexity and unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and limitations of default contribution pension nudges are discussed.

Around Marshall

NASA Image and Video Library

1976-01-06

At its founding, the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) inherited the Army’s Jupiter and Redstone test stands, but much larger facilities were needed for the giant stages of the Saturn V. From 1960 to 1964, the existing stands were remodeled and a sizable new test area was developed. The new comprehensive test complex for propulsion and structural dynamics was unique within the nation and the free world, and they remain so today because they were constructed with foresight to meet the future as well as on going needs. Construction of the S-IC Static test stand complex began in 1961 in the west test area of MSFC, and was completed in 1964. The S-IC static test stand was originally designed to develop and test the 138-ft long and 33-ft diameter Saturn V S-IC first stage, or booster stage. Modifications to the S-IC Test Stand began in 1975 to accommodate space shuttle external tank testing. This photo is of the horizontal liquid oxygen tanks.

`Intelligent Design' Poses ContinuedThreat to Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geissman, John W.

2006-01-01

Science education in the United States has been the subject of more than usual attention, especially since 1 August 2005 when President George W. Bush stoked the fire by responding to a reporter's question about the teaching of `intelligent design' (ID) in science classrooms by saying that ``both sides ought to be properly taught. . . so people can understand what the debate is about.'' Prior to the 20 December 2005 ruling against the teaching of ID in public schools, by U.S. District Judge John E. Jones III in the Pennsylvania case Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District, anti-evolutionists and ID proponents seemed to be enjoying a new momentum in the aftermath of President Bush's statements. William Dembski, senior fellow with the Discovery Institute's Center for the Renewal of Science and Culture in Seattle, Wash., a group that supports intelligent design, wrote on 4 August 2005 at http://www.designinference.com that President Bush ``is to be commended for his courage, wisdom, and foresight'' for supporting the teaching of ID alongside evolution.

Biases in the production and reception of collective knowledge: the case of hindsight bias in Wikipedia.

PubMed

Oeberst, Aileen; von der Beck, Ina; D Back, Mitja; Cress, Ulrike; Nestler, Steffen

2017-04-17

The Web 2.0 enabled collaboration at an unprecedented level. In one of the flagships of mass collaboration-Wikipedia-a large number of authors socially negotiate the world's largest compendium of knowledge. Several guidelines in Wikipedia restrict contributions to verifiable information from reliable sources to ensure recognized knowledge. Much psychological research demonstrates, however, that individual information processing is biased. This poses the question whether individual biases translate to Wikipedia articles or whether they are prevented by its guidelines. The present research makes use of hindsight bias to examine this question. To this end, we analyzed foresight and hindsight versions of Wikipedia articles regarding a broad variety of events (Study 1). We found the majority of articles not to contain traces of hindsight bias-contrary to prior individual research. However, for a particular category of events-disasters-we found robust evidence for hindsight bias. In a lab experiment (Study 2), we then examined whether individuals' hindsight bias is translated into articles under controlled conditions and tested whether collaborative writing-as present in Wikipedia-affects the resultant bias (vs. individual writing). Finally, we investigated the impact of biased Wikipedia articles on readers (Study 3). As predicted, biased articles elicited a hindsight bias in readers, who had not known of the event previously. Moreover, biased articles also affected individuals who knew about the event already, and who had already developed a hindsight bias: biased articles further increased their hindsight.

A comparison of the results of prospective and retrospective cohort studies in the field of digestive surgery.

PubMed

Ukai, Tomohiko; Shikata, Satoru; Nakayama, Takeo; Takemura, Yousuke C

2017-07-01

We compared the results of prospective and retrospective cohort studies in the field of digestive surgery to clarify whether the results of prospective cohort studies were more similar to those of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We conducted a secondary analysis of the results to compare the results of RCTs with those of cohort studies in meta-analyses of 18 digestive surgical topics. The data from the prospective and retrospective cohort studies were combined. The summary estimates of each design were compared with those of RCTs. We used the Z score to investigate discrepancies. Twenty-nine outcomes of 11 topics were investigated in 289 cohort studies (prospective, n = 69; retrospective, n = 220). These were compared with the outcomes of 123 RCTs. In comparison to retrospective studies, the summary estimates of the prospective cohort studies were more similar to those of the RCTs [19/29 (prospective) vs. 10/29 (retrospective), P = 0.035). Five of the 29 outcomes of prospective studies and 6 of 29 outcomes of retrospective studies (P = 0.99) showed significant discrepancies in comparison to RCTs. In the digestive surgical field, the results of prospective cohort studies tended to be more similar to those of RCTs than retrospective studies; however, there were no significant discrepancies between the two types of cohort study.

Selective effects of acute alcohol intake on the prospective and retrospective components of a prospective-memory task with emotional targets.

PubMed

Walter, Nora T; Bayen, Ute J

2016-01-01

Prospective memory involves remembering to do something in the future and has a prospective component (remembering that something must be done) and a retrospective component (remembering what must be done and when it must be done). Initial studies reported an impairment in prospective-memory performance due to acute alcohol consumption. Retrospective-memory studies demonstrated that alcohol effects vary depending on the emotionality of the information that needs to be learned. The aim of the present study was to investigate possible differential effects of a mild acute alcohol dose (0.4 g/kg) on the prospective and retrospective components of prospective memory depending on cue valence. Seventy-five participants were allocated to an alcohol or placebo group and performed a prospective-memory task in which prospective-memory cue valence was manipulated (negative, neutral, positive). The multinomial model of event-based prospective memory (Smith and Bayen 2004) was used to measure alcohol and valence effects on the two prospective-memory components separately. Overall, no main effect of alcohol or valence on prospective-memory performance occurred. However, model-based analyses demonstrated a significantly higher retrospective component for positive compared with negative cues in the placebo group. In the alcohol group, the prospective component was weaker for negative than for neutral cues and the retrospective component was stronger for positive than for neutral cues. Group comparisons showed that the alcohol group had a significantly lower prospective component for negative cues and a lower retrospective component for neutral cues. This is the first study to demonstrate selective alcohol effects on prospective-memory components depending on prospective-memory cue valence.

Pre-Hospital Emergency in Iran: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Bahadori, Mohammadkarim; Ghardashi, Fatemeh; Izadi, Ahmad Reza; Ravangard, Ramin; Mirhashemi, Sedigheh; Hosseini, Seyed Mojtaba

2016-05-01

Pre-hospital care plays a vital role in saving trauma patients. This study aims to review studies conducted on the pre-hospital emergency status in Iran. Data were sourced from Iranian electronic databases, including SID, IranMedex, IranDoc, Magiran, and non-Iranian electronic databases, such as Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Google Scholar. In addition, available data and statistics for the country were used. All Persian-language articles published in Iranian scientific journals and related English-language articles published in Iranian and non-Iranian journals indexed on valid sites for September 2005 - 2014 were systematically reviewed. To review the selected articles, a data extraction form developed by the researchers as per the study's objective was adopted. The articles were examined under two categories: structure and function of pre-hospital emergency. A total of 19 articles were selected, including six descriptive studies (42%), four descriptive-analytical studies (21%), five review articles (16%), two qualitative studies (10.5%), and two interventional (experimental) studies (10.5%). In addition, of these, 14 articles (73.5%) had been published in the English language. The focus of these selected articles were experts (31.5%), bases of emergency medical services (26%), injured (16%), data reviews (16%), and employees (10.5%). A majority of the studies (68%) investigated pre-hospital emergency functions and 32% reviewed the pre-hospital emergency structure. The number of studies conducted on pre-hospital emergency services in Iran is limited. To promote public health, consideration of prevention areas, processes to provide pre-hospital emergency services, policymaking, foresight, systemic view, comprehensive research programs and roadmaps, and assessments of research needs in pre-hospital emergency seem necessary.

¡VAMOS! (Viable Alternative Mine Operating System) - a 'Horizon 2020' project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sword, Cameron; Bodo, Balazs; Kapusniak, Stef; Bosman, Frank; Rainbird, Jenny; Silva, Eduardo

2017-04-01

The 42-month ¡VAMOS! project (Viable Alternative Mine Operating System, Grant Agreement 642477, www.vamos-project.eu), funded by the EC H2020 Programme, will enable access to high-grade EU reserves of mineral ore-bodies by developing an innovative clean and low visibility mining technique. The project will demonstrate the technological and economic viability of the underwater extraction of metallic mineral deposits which are currently technologically, economically, and environmentally unobtainable. In doing so, ¡VAMOS! hopes to encourage investment in abandoned open-pit mines and prospective mines, helping to put the EU back on a level playing field with the rest of the world in terms of access to strategically important minerals. The ¡VAMOS! concept is defined by a remotely-operated underwater mining vehicle, adapted and improved from existing subsea mining technology. Operating in tandem with an HROV, the mining vehicle will connect to a flexible riser through which slurried mined material will be pumped from the mudline to onshore dewatering facilities via a floating mobile deployment-module, on which will be fitted a bypass system linked to an LIBS, allowing real-time grade-control. Analysis of European and national regulation and stakeholder assessments found there is significant support for developing the technology among local communities and governments. An initial environmental assessment of the potential impact of the innovative mining operation concluded the project has a smaller environmental footprint than conventional mining operations: this is due to factors including the quieter operation and absence of blasting, zero water-table flux, and the higher stripping ratio enabled by higher fluid pressure acting on the sidewalls of the mine. The prototypes are currently in their construction phase following a final design freeze in October 2016. Work is now underway on the foresight visioning, economic evaluation and policy guidelines for the ¡VAMOS! methodology and technologies; the project team will be identifying key areas of research interest and assessing the micro and macroeconomic impact of ¡VAMOS!. The deadline for the completion of the underwater mining vehicle prototype is May 2017, and the HROV hardware and software is to be completed by July 2017. Site-tests will take place in the months after the build completion at a number of unique abandoned mines across Europe, with final proof of operational viability due by November 2017.

Investigating Prospective Teachers' Teaching-Specific Hopes as Predictors of Their Sense of Personal Responsibility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2017-01-01

This study examined whether prospective teachers' teaching-specific hopes significantly predicted their sense of personal responsibility. A total of 503 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. Correlation and structural equation modelling analyses were conducted to examine the links between prospective teachers'…

25 Years of Self-organized Criticality: Numerical Detection Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAteer, R. T. James; Aschwanden, Markus J.; Dimitropoulou, Michaila; Georgoulis, Manolis K.; Pruessner, Gunnar; Morales, Laura; Ireland, Jack; Abramenko, Valentyna

2016-01-01

The detection and characterization of self-organized criticality (SOC), in both real and simulated data, has undergone many significant revisions over the past 25 years. The explosive advances in the many numerical methods available for detecting, discriminating, and ultimately testing, SOC have played a critical role in developing our understanding of how systems experience and exhibit SOC. In this article, methods of detecting SOC are reviewed; from correlations to complexity to critical quantities. A description of the basic autocorrelation method leads into a detailed analysis of application-oriented methods developed in the last 25 years. In the second half of this manuscript space-based, time-based and spatial-temporal methods are reviewed and the prevalence of power laws in nature is described, with an emphasis on event detection and characterization. The search for numerical methods to clearly and unambiguously detect SOC in data often leads us outside the comfort zone of our own disciplines—the answers to these questions are often obtained by studying the advances made in other fields of study. In addition, numerical detection methods often provide the optimum link between simulations and experiments in scientific research. We seek to explore this boundary where the rubber meets the road, to review this expanding field of research of numerical detection of SOC systems over the past 25 years, and to iterate forwards so as to provide some foresight and guidance into developing breakthroughs in this subject over the next quarter of a century.

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Tracking Water-Use in Colorado's Energy Exploration and Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halamka, T. A.; Ge, S.

2017-12-01

By the year 2050 Colorado's population is projected to nearly double, posing many important questions about the stresses that Colorado's water resources will experience. Growing in tandem with Colorado's population is the state's energy exploration and development industry. As water demands increase across the state, the energy exploration and development industry must adapt to and prepare for future difficulties surrounding the legal acquisition of water. The goal of this study is to map out the potential sources of water within the state of Colorado that are being purchased, or will be eligible for purchase, for unconventional subsurface energy extraction. The background of this study includes an overview of the intertwined relationship between water, the energy industry, and the Colorado economy. The project also aims to determine the original purpose of legally appropriated water that is used in Colorado's energy exploration and development. Is the water primarily being purchased or leased from the agricultural sector? Is the water mostly surface water or groundwater? In order to answer these questions, we accessed data from numerous water reporting agencies and examined legal methods of acquisition of water for use in the energy industry. Using these data, we assess the future water quantity available to the energy industry. Knowledge and foresight on the origins of the water used by the energy industry will allow for better and strategic planning of water resources and how the industry will respond to statewide water-related stresses.

Investing in Prospective Cohorts for Etiologic Study of Occupational Exposures

PubMed Central

Blair, A.; Hines, C.J.; Thomas, K.W.; Alavanja, M.C.R.; Beane Freeman, L.E.; Hoppin, J.A.; Kamel, F.; Lynch, C.F.; Lubin, J.H.; Silverman, D.T.; Whelan, E.; Zahm, S. H.; Sandler, D. P.

2015-01-01

Prospective cohorts have played a major role in understanding the contribution of diet, physical activity, medical conditions, and genes to the development of many diseases, but have not been widely used for occupational exposures. Studies in agriculture are an exception. We draw upon our experience using this design to study agricultural workers to identify conditions that might foster use of prospective cohorts to study other occupational settings. Prospective cohort studies are perceived by many as the strongest epidemiologic design. It allows updating of information on exposure and other factors, collection of biologic samples before disease diagnosis for biomarker studies, assessment of effect modification by genes, lifestyle, and other occupational exposures, and evaluation of a wide range of health outcomes. Increased use of prospective cohorts would be beneficial in identifying hazardous exposures in the workplace. Occupational epidemiologists should seek opportunities to initiate prospective cohorts to investigate high priority, occupational exposures. PMID:25603935

A Model of Microteaching Lesson Study Implementation in the Prospective History Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utami, Indah Wahyu Puji; Mashuri; Nafi'ah, Ulfatun

2016-01-01

Microteaching lesson study is a model to improve prospective teacher quality by incorporating several element of microteaching and lesson study. This study concern on the implementation of microteaching lesson study in prospective history teacher education. Microteaching lesson study model implemented in this study consist of three stages: plan,…

Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Difficulties in Doing Proofs and Causes of Their Struggle with Proofs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doruk, Muhammet; Kaplan, Abdullah

2015-01-01

This research aims to expose prospective mathematics teachers' difficulties while proving, as well as the reasons behind such difficulties. The research includes 121 second year undergraduate prospective teachers studying at the primary mathematics teaching department of a state university in Turkey. The study has found that prospective teachers…

A Study on the Spatial Abilities of Prospective Social Studies Teachers: A Mixed Method Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurt, Eyüp; Tünkler, Vural

2016-01-01

This study investigated prospective social studies teachers' spatial abilities. It was conducted with 234 prospective teachers attending Social Studies Teaching departments at Education Faculties of two universities in Central and Southern Anatolia. This study, designed according to the explanatory-sequential design, is a mixed research method,…

The future is now: prospective temporal self-appraisals among defensive pessimists and optimists.

PubMed

Sanna, Lawrence J; Chang, Edward C; Carter, Seth E; Small, Eulena M

2006-06-01

Three studies found that prospective temporal self-appraisals can be part of defensive pessimists' strategy; they felt closer to equally distant negative than positive futures. In Study 1, defensive pessimists felt closer to future failures and reported more negative affect than those considering success. In Study 2, when manipulated negative futures were close, defensive pessimists felt bad and performed well; results suggested that viewing negative futures as close may be part of their natural strategy. Study 3 found that prospective self-appraisals influenced performances through felt preparation. Optimists did not use prospective self-appraisals (Study 1) and their performances were unaffected by manipulated temporal distance (Studies 2 and 3). Discussion centers on prospective self-appraisals and multiple strategies of defensive pessimists.

Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Ability to Identify Mistakes Related to Angle Concept of Sixth Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arslan, Cigdem; Erbay, Hatice Nur; Guner, Pinar

2017-01-01

In the present study we try to highlight prospective mathematics teachers' ability to identify mistakes of sixth grade students related to angle concept. And also we examined prospective mathematics teachers' knowledge of angle concept. Study was carried out with 30 sixth-grade students and 38 prospective mathematics teachers. Sixth grade students…

Study of Prospective Teachers' Conceptualization of Value Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koruklu, Nermin; Aktamis, Hilal

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there were any changes in the conceptualization of prospective teachers' values preferences during their university studies. The research group was composed of 208 prospective teachers who were studying at Science Education, Social Science Education and Fine Arts Education at Adnan Menderes…

[Burden of influenza virus type B and mismatch with the flu vaccine in Spain].

PubMed

Eiros-Bouza, Jose Ma; Pérez-Rubio, Alberto

2015-02-01

Since the 80s two lineages of type B viruses are co - circulating in the world. Antigenic differences between them are important and it leads to lack of cross-reactivity. The impact on the burden of disease due to influenza B virus, poor foresight in estimating which of the two lineages of B viruses circulate in the season, and the consequent lack of immunity in case of including the wrong strain make that the availability of the quadrivalent vaccine is very useful. The aim of this paper is to analyze the past influenza seasons in Spain to assess the burden of disease, divergence between the vaccine strain and the circulating B and viral characteristics associated with type B in each seasonal epidemic. Review of all reports issued by the Influenza Surveillance System in Spain since the 2003-2004 season to 2012-2013. Over the past influenza seasons, although type A was present mostly, circulation of influenza B virus in each season was observed, even being co - dominant in some of them. In a high number of seasons the divergence between the vaccine strain and the circulating strain lineage has been observed The protective effect of influenza vaccine has varied depending on the type / subtype of influenza virus studied. The vaccine effectiveness against influenza infection by influenza B virus has varied greatly depending on the season analyzed.

Milestone Educational Planning Initiatives in Veterinary Medical Education: Progress and Pitfalls.

PubMed

Stone, Elizabeth A; Reimann, Jessica; Greenhill, Lisa M; Dewey, Cate E

2017-11-29

Three milestone educational planning initiatives engaged the veterinary medical profession in the United States and Canada between 1987 and 2011, namely the Pew National Veterinary Education Program, the Foresight Project, and the North American Veterinary Medical Education Consortium. In a quantitative study, we investigated the impact of these initiatives on veterinary medical education through a survey of academic leaders (deans, previous deans, and associate deans for academics from veterinary medical schools that are members of the Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges) to assess their perspectives on the initiatives and eight recommendations that were common to all three initiatives. Two of the recommendations have in effect been implemented: enable students to elect in-depth instruction and experience within a practice theme or discipline area (tracking), and increase the number of graduating veterinarians. For three of the recommendations, awareness of the issues has increased but substantial progress has not been made: promote diversity in the veterinary profession, develop a plan to reduce student debt, and develop a North American strategic plan. Lastly, three recommendations have not been accomplished: emphasize use of information more than fact recall, share educational resources to enable a cost-effective education, and standardize core admissions requirements. The educational planning initiatives did provide collaborative opportunities to discuss and determine what needs to change within veterinary medical education. Future initiatives should explore how to avoid and overcome obstacles to successful implementation.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Prospective memory impairment in "ecstasy" (MDMA) users.

PubMed

Rendell, Peter G; Gray, Timothy J; Henry, Julie D; Tolan, Anne

2007-11-01

Considerable research indicates that "ecstasy" users perceive their memory for future intentions (prospective memory) to be impaired. However, only one empirical study to date has directly tested how this capacity is affected by ecstasy use, and this study provided relatively limited information regarding the extent, scope, or implications of problems experienced. The present study assessed prospective performance on a laboratory measure of prospective memory that closely represents the types of prospective memory tasks that actually occur in everyday life and provides an opportunity to investigate the different sorts of prospective memory failures that occur ("Virtual Week"). Ecstasy user group (27 current users and 34 nonusers) was between participants, and prospective memory task (regular, irregular, time-check) was within participants. A measure sensitive to specific aspects of psychopathology was also administered. Ecstasy users were significantly impaired on Virtual Week, and these deficits were of a comparable magnitude irrespective of the specific prospective memory task demands. The pattern of results was unchanged after controlling for marijuana use, level of psychopathology, and sleep quality. Further, prospective memory was shown to be significantly impaired for both relatively infrequent and relatively frequent ecstasy users, although for the latter group the magnitude of this deficit was greater. Prospective memory performance is sensitive to regular and even moderate ecstasy use. Importantly, ecstasy users experience generalized difficulties with prospective memory, suggesting that these deficits are likely to have important implications for day-to-day functioning.

The Examining of Prospective Teachers? Views about Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasiloglu, Mehmet Akif

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine prospective teachers? views about renewable and non-renewable energy sources. To collect data, a questionnaire with 5 open-ended questions was conveyed to 463 prospective teachers selected from Agri Ibrahim Cecen University. The results showed that almost three fourths of the prospective teachers tend to…

Prospective memory in schizophrenia: relationship to medication management skills, neurocognition, and symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Raskin, Sarah A; Maye, Jacqueline; Rogers, Alexandra; Correll, David; Zamroziewicz, Marta; Kurtz, Matthew

2014-05-01

Impaired adherence to medication regimens is a serious concern for individuals with schizophrenia linked to relapse and poorer outcomes. One possible reason for poor adherence to medication is poor ability to remember future intentions, labeled prospective memory skills. It has been demonstrated in several studies that individuals with schizophrenia have impairments in prospective memory that are linked to everyday life skills. However, there have been no studies, to our knowledge, examining the relationship of a clinical measure of prospective memory to medication management skills, a key element of successful adherence. In this Study 41 individuals with schizophrenia and 25 healthy adults were administered a standardized test battery that included measures of prospective memory, medication management skills, neurocognition, and symptoms. Individuals with schizophrenia demonstrated impairments in prospective memory (both time and event-based) relative to healthy controls. Performance on the test of prospective memory was correlated with the standardized measure of medication management in individuals with schizophrenia. Moreover, the test of prospective memory predicted skills in medication adherence even after measures of neurocognition were accounted for. This suggests that prospective memory may play a key role in medication management skills and thus should be a target of cognitive remediation programs.

The U. S. Geological Survey in the early 1900's - Reminiscences of D. Foster Hewett, Adolph Knopf, and Frank C. Calkins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewett, Donnel Foster; Knopf, Adolph; Calkins, Frank C.; Pratt, Walden P.

1997-01-01

In December, 1962, 81-year-old Donnel Foster Hewett hosted a dinner party for what was then the “younger crop”of U.S. Geological Survey geologists in Menlo Park, California. His aim was to give them the benefit of some collective wisdom about what life in the Survey was like in the “good old days,” with particular attention paid to the personalities of some of the men who had played prominent roles in the Survey's development. To this end he recruited two other Survey old-timers: Adolph Knopf (80), a Visiting Professor at nearby Stanford University, and Frank Calkins (84), a USGS Annuitant in the Menlo Park headquarters. Following a convivial dinner, these three distinguished gentlemen delivered their remarks to an appreciative and responsive audience. In an act of great foresight, someone, perhaps Hewett himself, had arranged to have the proceedings tape-recorded. Walden P. Pratt, of the USGS in Denver, Colo., obtained a copy of the tape and transcribed it.

The responsibilities of veterinary educators in responding to emerging needs in veterinary medicine.

PubMed

Halliwell, R E W

2009-08-01

It is an unfortunate fact that not only has veterinary education failed to adapt in the face of likely future needs, but it has also failed to respond to societal changes that have already taken place and that have affected the requirements for veterinary services and veterinary capability. The responsibility is primarily that of educators, although vision and foresight require a co-ordinated approach involving national and international veterinary organisations. Once it is accepted by all parties that change is essential, the implementation will fail unless there is a unified programme involving the schools and colleges, the accrediting agencies, the licensing authorities, governments, the professional organisations and corporate veterinary medicine. All have a role to play, and any one can readily block progress. A unified approach is an absolute requirement. The developed countries must take a leading role, but the issues are global, and ways must be found to facilitate change in all parts of the world. Disease knows no boundaries, and any strategy is only as strong as its weakest link.

Veterinary professional associates: does the profession's foresight include a mid-tier professional similar to physician assistants?

PubMed

Kogan, Lori R; Stewart, Sherry M

2009-01-01

The projected shortage of veterinarians has created a need to explore alternatives designed to meet society's future demands. A veterinary professional health care provider, similar to the human medical profession's physician assistant (PA), is one such alternative. To explore this option, this paper provides background information on the development of PAs, including the motivations behind the initiative and the history of the role's development. Rather than aiming for a persuasive appeal, the authors have written this article with the intent of fostering discussion. It is suggested that perhaps veterinary professional associates, modeled after PAs, could be employed to handle routine veterinary care and thereby allow veterinarians additional time to focus on the more demanding and challenging aspects of veterinary medicine. Perhaps a team approach, similar to the physician/PA team, could help the field of veterinary medicine to better serve both clients and patients. As veterinary medicine directs its attention toward the new challenges on the horizon, creative solutions will be needed. Perhaps some variation of a veterinary professional associate is worthy of future discussion.

Nanomedicine and ethics: is there anything new or unique?

PubMed

Kuiken, Todd

2011-01-01

As medicine moves toward being able to predict what you will die from and when, nanomedicine is expected to enhance human capabilities and properties and promises the ability of health care professionals to diagnose, treat, and share medical information nearly instantaneously. It promises to deliver drugs directly to the source of the disease, i.e. tumor. This article examines the literature surrounding ethics associated with nanomedicine, and asks whether these ethical issues are new and unique. While opinions differ, this review concludes that none of the ethical questions surrounding nanomedicine are new or unique, and would hold true for any new medical device or medicine that was being evaluated. The real issue becomes public acceptance of nanomedicine and how much risk society is willing to accept with a new technology before it is proven effective and 'safe'. While ethical foresight can prove effective in forecasting potential problems, in reality, ethics may not be capable of evaluating such a technology that has yet proven effective in all it has promised. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Using game theory approach to interpret stable policies for Iran's oil and gas common resources conflicts with Iraq and Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Maryam; Bahrini, Aram; Shayanrad, Sepideh

2015-12-01

Oil and gas as the non-renewable resources are considered very valuable for the countries with petroleum economics. These resources are not only diffused equally around the world, but also they are common in some places which their neighbors often come into conflicts. Consequently, it is vital for those countries to manage their resource utilization. Lately, game theory was applied in conflict resolution of common resources, such as water, which is a proof of its efficacy and capability. This paper models the conflicts between Iran and its neighbors namely Qatar and Iraq between their oil and gas common resources using game theory approach. In other words, the future of these countries will be introduced and analyzed by some well-known 2 × 2 games to achieve a better perspective of their conflicts. Because of information inadequacy of the players, in addition to Nash Stability, various solution concepts are used based on the foresight, disimprovements, and knowledge of preferences. The results of mathematical models show how the countries could take a reasonable strategy to exploit their common resources.

The neurobiology of focus and distraction: The case for incorporating mindfulness into leadership.

PubMed

Mohapel, Paul

2018-05-01

Increasingly health leaders are experiencing greater demands and pressures, which require the need for better focus while limiting unwarranted distractions. This article offers a neurobiological explanation of how the brain focuses and becomes distracted, in order to help health leaders gain insight into their own effectiveness. Two main neural circuits are contrasted: the mind-wandering default mode circuit and the attentional central executive system. These two systems act in an antagonistic pairing, where the degree of toggling between systems is associated with the degree a person can sustain focus and filter out unwarranted distractions. Excessive multitasking appears to compromise the neural switch of these two systems, thereby diminishing our focus and concentration. In contrast, mindfulness practice is shown to have the opposite effect by enhancing the neural switch, thereby enhancing leadership focus that can lead to greater flexibility, foresight, regulation, and creativity. To conclude, leaders who are excessively distracted, such as with multitasking, may be compromising cognitive brain functioning, while engaging in mindfulness may replenish the brain and thereby enhance leaders' ability to sustain focus and tap into higher cognitive functioning.

The Upside of Failure: How Regional Student Groups Learn from Their Mistakes

PubMed Central

Mishra, Tarun; Parra, R. Gonzalo; Abeel, Thomas

2014-01-01

Success is the result of planning, hard work, determination, foresight, and a little bit of luck. Unfortunately, nobody has thought to pave the road to success. Although failure can be discouraging and time-consuming, it presents incredible learning opportunities—the biggest difference between those who succeed and those who abandon their projects lies in their response to adversity. This article reviews events undertaken by the Regional Student Groups (RSGs) in India and Argentina, the problems they encountered, and what can be learned from them. RSG-India attempted to organize an online scientific meeting (also known as a virtual conference) with geographically dispersed stakeholders, a totally new concept for them. RSG-Argentina tackled the challenge of organizing a two-day symposium, their first event ever. Some of the complications they faced were easy to fix, others led to the cancellation of activities, and all of them resulted in valuable lessons. The main goal of this article is to highlight, through their experiences, the universal importance of a healthy panel of contingency plans. PMID:25101799

A Decade of Building a STEM Educational Community of Practice from the Ground Up: Leveraging Technology, Visualization, and Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisut, D.; MacIntosh, E.; McDougall, C.; Peddicord, H.; Russell, E. L.; Zepecki, S., III

2017-12-01

A small group of scientists and museum directors sit in a room and ponder, "What do we do with this thing?" It was ten years ago, and the Science On a Sphere was a nascent educational technology. Since that time, NOAA has built a energetic community of practice, with over 150 institutional network members ranging from museums and aquariums, to scientific laboratories, and even documentary producers. A key to the long term success of this educational community has been its constant evolution - driven by needs assessments of the network partners, NOAA's foresight on how to improve user experiences by integrating new visualizations, storytelling, and improved technology, and the ability of institutions to integrate the technologies into their other STEM offerings. In this talk we'll cover specific examples of the challenges that have arisen, and how NOAA, and its close partner NASA, has evolved the program offerings and technologies to meet the needs of this educational community of practice, along with some thoughts on the future of the Science On a Sphere Collaborative Network and NOAA's STEM educational technology portfolio.

Age effects in emotional prospective memory: cue valence differentially affects the prospective and retrospective component.

PubMed

Schnitzspahn, Katharina M; Horn, Sebastian S; Bayen, Ute J; Kliegel, Matthias

2012-06-01

While first studies suggested that emotional task material may enhance prospective memory performance in young and older adults, the extent and mechanisms of this effect are under debate. The authors explored possible differential effects of cue valence on the prospective and retrospective component of prospective memory in young and older adults. Forty-five young and 41 older adults performed a prospective memory task in which emotional valence of the prospective memory cue was manipulated (positive, negative, neutral). The multinomial model of event-based prospective memory was used to analyze effects of valence and age on the two prospective memory components separately. Results revealed an interaction indicating that age differences were smaller in both emotional valence conditions. For older adults positive cues improved the prospective component, while negative cues improved the retrospective component. No main effect of valence was found for younger adults on an overt accuracy measure, but model-based analyses showed that the retrospective component was enhanced in the positive compared with the negative cue condition. The study extends the literature in demonstrating that processes underlying emotional effects on prospective memory may differ depending on valence and age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

An Instrument Development Study for Determining Prospective Science Teachers' Science-Specific Epistemological Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koksal, Mustafa Serdar; Ertekin, Pelin

2016-01-01

The study is focusing on development of an instrument to determine science-specific epistemological beliefs of prospective science teachers. The study involved 364 (male = 82, female = 282) prospective science teachers enrolled in a science teacher education program. The confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis and correlation analysis…

The Perception on Fundamentals of Online Courses: A Case on Prospective Instructional Designers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Genç, Zülfü; Tinmaz, Hasan

2016-01-01

This study focuses on prospective instructional designers' perception toward creating online courses including which elements are essential for developing such platforms. The study is significant for revealing what the prospective instructional designers focus on while they design certain learning opportunities. The participants of the study were…

Prospective Physics Teachers' Awareness of Radiation and Radioactivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tasoglu, Aslihan Kartal; Ates, Özlem; Bakaç, Mustafa

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate prospective physics teachers' knowledge of and attitude towards radiation and radioactivity. Participants of this study are 56 prospective physics teachers. A questionnaire related with the knowledge about radiation and radiation fear was conducted. The results of this study showed that most of the…

The Level of Understanding of the Photoelectric Phenomenon in Prospective Teachers and the Effects of "Writing with Learning" on Their Success Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Ali; Buyukkasap, Erdogan

2011-01-01

This study examines prospective teachers' levels of understanding the photoelectric effect, and the impact of writing activities for learning purposes on the success of prospective teachers. These prospective teachers study in the science teaching program of the faculty of education and take the course Introduction to Modern Physics. In this…

The Effect of a Listening Education Course on the Listening Behaviors of Prospective Turkish Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aytan, Talat

2016-01-01

This study aims to determine the effect of a listening education course on the listening behaviors of prospective Turkish teachers. The participants of the study are 45 prospective teachers who are studying at a state university in Istanbul and taking a listening education course. The study is an experimental study in the model of "one group…

Are Prospective Elementary School Teachers' Social Studies Teaching Efficacy Beliefs Related to Their Learning Approaches in a Social Studies Teaching Methods Course?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dündar, Sahin

2015-01-01

This study aimed to contribute to the growing literature on learning approaches and teacher self-efficacy beliefs by examining associations between prospective elementary school teachers' learning approaches in a social studies teaching methods course and their social studies teaching efficacy beliefs. One hundred ninety-two prospective elementary…

The Effect of Dynamic Software on Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Perceptions Regarding Information and Communication Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatar, Enver

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of dynamic software on prospective mathematics teachers' perception levels regarding information and communication technology (ICT). The study was conducted with senior prospective teachers studying in a department of secondary mathematics education. The data of the study used both quantitative and…

Prospective Science Teachers' Subject-Matter Knowledge about Overflow Container

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ültay, Eser

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine prospective science teachers' subject-matter knowledge (SMK) about overflow container. This study was carried out in the form of a case study in spring term of the academic year of 2013-2014 with seven sophomore prospective science teachers who were studying at Elementary Science Teaching Department in…

A Study of Prospective Teachers' Consumption Patterns on Special Days

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saglam, Halil Ibrahim

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify prospective teachers' consumption patterns on special days. The sample was comprised of 29 prospective teachers (22 females and 7 males) who studied Primary School Teaching in the Faculty of Education at Sakarya University during the 2014-2015 Academic Year. The study was designed as a phenomenological…

Understanding of Prospective Mathematics Teachers of the Concept of Diagonal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayvaz, Ülkü; Gündüz, Nazan; Bozkus, Figen

2017-01-01

This study aims to investigate the concept images of prospective mathematics teachers about the concept of diagonal. With this aim, case study method was used in the study. The participants of the study were consisted of 7 prospective teachers educating at the Department of Mathematics Education. Criterion sampling method was used to select the…

Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Opinions about Mathematical Modeling Method and Applicability of This Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akgün, Levent

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify prospective secondary mathematics teachers' opinions about the mathematical modeling method and the applicability of this method in high schools. The case study design, which is among the qualitative research methods, was used in the study. The study was conducted with six prospective secondary mathematics…

An Investigation of Music Teaching Self-Efficacy Levels of Prospective Preschool Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koca, Sehriban

2013-01-01

The aim of the study is to investigate music teaching self-efficacy levels of prospective preschool teachers. The study used survey model. Participants of the study consisted of a total of 120 prospective teachers studying at Mersin University, Faculty of Education, Department of Primary Education Preschool Teaching Program in Mersin, a City in…

A qualitative study of the current situation of elderly care in Iran: what can we do for the future?

PubMed

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

With the successful improvement of global health systems and social security in societies, the world is now advancing toward aging. All countries have to face the phenomenon of population aging sooner or later depending on their degree of development; however, elderly care is predicted to soon become a major concern for developing countries such as Iran. This study was conducted to identify the challenges of elderly care in Iran and to help policymakers develop roadmaps for the future through providing a clearer image of the current state of affairs in this area of healthcare. This study has adopted a framework approach to qualitative data analysis. For this purpose, 37 semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2015 with a number of key informants in elderly care who were familiar with the process at macro-, meso-, and micro-levels. Maximum variation purposive sampling was performed to select the study samples. A conceptual framework was designed using a review of the literature, and key issues were then identified for data analysis. The elderly care process yielded five major challenges, including policymaking, access, technical infrastructure, integrity and coordination, and health-based care services. According to the stakeholders of elderly care in Iran, the current care system is not well-suited for meeting the needs of the elderly, as the elderly tend to receive the services they need sporadically and in a non-coherent manner. Given the rapid growth of the elderly population in the coming decades, it is the authorities' job to concentrate on the challenges faced by the health system and to use foresight methods for the comprehensive and systematical management of the issue.

Economic analysis of bedside ultrasonography (US) implementation in an Internal Medicine department.

PubMed

Testa, Americo; Francesconi, Andrea; Giannuzzi, Rosangela; Berardi, Silvia; Sbraccia, Paolo

2015-12-01

The economic crisis, the growing healthcare demand, and Defensive Medicine wastefulness, strongly recommend the restructuring of the entire medical network. New health technology, such as bedside ultrasonography, might successfully integrate the clinical approach optimizing the use of limited resources, especially in a person-oriented vision of medicine. Bedside ultrasonography is a safe and reliable technique, with worldwide expanding employment in various clinical settings, being considered as "the stethoscope of the 21st century". However, at present, bedside ultrasonography lacks economic analysis. We performed a Cost-Benefit Analysis "ex ante", with a break-even point computing, of bedside ultrasonography implementation in an Internal Medicine department in the mid-term. Number and kind estimation of bedside ultrasonographic studies were obtained by a retrospective study, whose data results were applied to the next 3-year period (foresight study). All 1980 foreseen bedside examinations, with prevailing multiorgan ultrasonographic studies, were considered to calculate direct and indirect costs, while specific and generic revenues were considered only after the first semester. Physician professional training, equipment purchase and working time represented the main fixed and variable cost items. DRG increase/appropriateness, hospitalization stay shortening and reduction of traditional ultrasonography examination requests mainly impacted on calculated revenues. The break-even point, i.e. the volume of activity at which revenues exactly equal total incurred costs, was calculated to be 734 US examinations, corresponding to € 81,998 and the time considered necessary to reach it resulting 406 days. Our economic analysis clearly shows that bedside ultrasonography implementation in clinical daily management of an Internal Medicine department can produce consistent savings, or economic profit according to managerial choices (i.e., considering public or private targets), other than evident medical benefits.

Activity-based prospective memory in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Kumar, Devvarta; Nizamie, S Haque; Jahan, Masroor

2008-05-01

The study reports activity-based prospective memory as well as its clinical and neuropsychological correlates in schizophrenia. A total of 42 persons diagnosed with schizophrenia and 42 healthy controls were administered prospective memory, set-shifting, and verbal working memory tasks. The schizophrenia group was additionally administered various psychopathology rating scales. Group differences, with poorer performances of the schizophrenia group, were observed on the measures of prospective memory, working memory, and set shifting. The performance on prospective memory tasks correlated with the performance levels on verbal working memory and set-shifting tasks but not with the clinical measures. This study demonstrated impaired activity-based prospective memory in schizophrenia. The impairment can be due to deficits in various neuropsychological domains.

Learning by doing? Prospective elementary teachers' developing understandings of scientific inquiry and science teaching and learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haefner, Leigh Ann; Zembal-Saul, Carla

This study examined prospective elementary teachers' learning about scientific inquiry in the context of an innovative life science course. Research questions included: (1) What do prospective elementary teachers learn about scientific inquiry within the context of the course? and (2) In what ways do their experiences engaging in science investigations and teaching inquiry-oriented science influence prospective elementary teachers' understanding of science and science learning and teaching? Eleven prospective elementary teachers participated in this qualitative, multi-participant case study. Constant comparative analysis strategies attempted to build abstractions and explanations across participants around the constructs of the study. Findings suggest that engaging in scientific inquiry supported the development more appropriate understandings of science and scientific inquiry, and that prospective teachers became more accepting of approaches to teaching science that encourage children's questions about science phenomena. Implications include careful consideration of learning experiences crafted for prospective elementary teachers to support the development of robust subject matter knowledge.

Comparisons of Patient Demographics in Prospective Sports, Shoulder, and National Database Initiatives.

PubMed

Saltzman, Bryan M; Cvetanovich, Gregory L; Bohl, Daniel D; Cole, Brian J; Bach, Bernard R; Romeo, Anthony A

2016-09-01

There has been increased emphasis in orthopaedics on high-quality prospective research to provide evidence-based treatment guidelines, particularly in sports medicine/shoulder surgery. The external validity of these studies has not been established, and the generalizability of the results to clinical practice in the United States is unknown. Comparison of patient demographics in major prospective studies of arthroscopic sports and shoulder surgeries to patients undergoing the same procedures in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database will show substantial differences to question the generalizability and external validity of those studies. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. This study utilized patients undergoing arthroscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR), meniscectomy (MX), rotator cuff repair (RCR), and shoulder stabilization (SS) from the NSQIP database (2005-2013). Two prospective studies (either randomized controlled trials or, in 1 case, a major cohort study) were identified for each of the 4 procedures for comparison. Demographic variables available for comparison in both the identified prospective studies and the NSQIP included age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). From the NSQIP database, 5576 ACLR patients, 18,882 MX patients, 7282 RCR patients, and 993 SS patients were identified. The comparison clinical studies included cohort sizes as follows: ACLR, n = 121 and 2683; MX, n = 146 and 330; RCR, n = 90 and 103; SS, n = 88 and 196. Age differed significantly between the NSQIP and the patients in 6 of the 8 prospective clinical studies. Sex differed significantly between the NSQIP and the patients in 7 of the 8 prospective clinical studies. BMI differed significantly between the NSQIP and the patients of all 4 of the prospective clinical studies that reported this demographic variable. Significant differences exist for patient age, sex, and BMI between patients included in major sports medicine/shoulder prospective studies and corresponding patients undergoing the same procedures in a nationwide database of academic and community centers in the United States. Future work is needed to understand whether major prospective clinical studies-frequently performed in high-volume, specialized practices-are truly indicative of the types of patients treated and expected results in the general orthopaedic practice. This study additionally argues for the importance of initiating a national registry dedicated to patients undergoing orthopaedic procedures in the United States.

A Study on Chocolate Consumption in Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozgen, Leyla

2016-01-01

This study was planned and conducted to determine the chocolate consumption habits of prospective teachers. The study population was comprised of students attending the Faculty of Education at Gazi University in Ankara and the sample consisted of 251 prospective teachers selected with simple random sampling. 96.4% and 3.6% of the prospective…

Prospective Teachers' Beliefs about Problem Solving in Multiple Ways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arikan, Elif Esra

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether prospective teachers believe solving a mathematics problem involves in using different solution methods. 60 mathematics prospective teachers who take the pedagogic training program in a state university were participated in this study. Five open-ended questions were asked. The study was carried out…

Analyzing Perceptions of Prospective Teachers about Their Media Literacy Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Recepoglu, Ergun; Ergun, Muammer

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze perceptions of prospective teachers about their media literacy competencies in terms of different variables. This is a descriptive research in the survey model which tries to detect the current situation. Study group includes 580 prospective teachers from Turkish, Primary School, Social Studies, Science,…

Prospective EFL Teachers' Emotional Intelligence and Tablet Computer Use and Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herguner, Sinem

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether there is a relationship between tablet computer use and literacy, and emotional intelligence of prospective English language teachers. The study used a survey approach. In the study, "Prospective Teachers Tablet Computer Use and Literacy Scale" and an adapted and translated version into…

An Examination of Understandings of Prospective Teachers about Science and Science History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildiz, Cemalettin

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to reveal beliefs of prospective teachers about "science" and "science history." The qualitative research approach was employed in the study. The study group consisted of 150 prospective teachers. A form developed by the researcher was used for data collection. The form consisted of open-ended…

Consistency between Constructivist Profiles and Instructional Practices of Prospective Physics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ates, Ozlem; Unal Coban, Gul; Kaya Sengoren, Serap

2018-01-01

This study aims to explain the extent to which prospective physics teachers' views and practices are consistent with the constructivist framework. A case study design was employed as the research approach. The study was conducted with 11 prospective physics teachers attending a state university in Turkey. Data was collected through semi-structured…

Prospective memory in schizophrenia: Relationship to medication management skills, neurocognition and symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Raskin, S.; Maye, J.; Rogers, A.; Correll, D.; Zamroziewicz, M.; Kurtz, M.

2014-01-01

Objective Impaired adherence to medication regimens is a serious concern for individuals with schizophrenia linked to relapse and poorer outcomes. One possible reason for poor adherence to medication is poor ability to remember future intentions, labeled prospective memory skills. It has been demonstrated in several studies that individuals with schizophrenia have impairments in prospective memory that are linked to everyday life skills. However, there have been no studies, to our knowledge, examining the relationship of a clinical measure of prospective memory to medication management skills, a key element of successful adherence. Methods In this study 41 individuals with schizophrenia and 25 healthy adults were administered a standardized test battery that included measures of prospective memory, medication management skills, neurocognition and symptoms. Results Individuals with schizophrenia demonstrated impairments in prospective memory (both time and event-based) relative to healthy controls. Performance on the test of prospective memory was correlated with the standardized measure of medication management in individuals with schizophrenia. Moreover, the test of prospective memory predicted skills in medication adherence even after measures of neurocognition were accounted for. Conclusions This suggests that prospective memory may play a key role in medication management skills and thus should be a target of cognitive remediation programs. PMID:24188118

Prospective Teachers' Cognitive Constructs Concerning Ideal Teacher Qualifications: A Phenomenological Analysis Based on Repertory Grid Technique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kozikoglu, Ishak

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify cognitive constructs of prospective teachers about ideal teacher qualifications. This study was designed as phenomenological pattern which is one of the qualitative research designs. The study was conducted with 36 prospective teachers selected from Yüzüncü Yil University, Faculty of Education. The study group…

The Effect of Instruction through Mathematical Modelling on Modelling Skills of Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciltas, Alper; Isik, Ahmet

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the modelling skills of prospective elementary mathematics teachers who were studying the mathematical modelling method. The research study group was composed of 35 prospective teachers. The exploratory case analysis method was used in the study. The data were obtained via semi-structured interviews and a…

Prospecting for customers in the small employer market: the experience of Arizona Health Care Group.

PubMed

Christianson, J B; Liu, C F; Schroeder, C M

1994-01-01

The findings of this study provide an interesting profile of the small employer "prospects" for prepaid health plans, where a prospect is defined as an employer that responds to a mass mailing effort with a request for information and further contact. About 60% of these prospects already have insurance, with 40% having group insurance. Therefore, a substantial portion of prospects are seeking to replace their existing health benefit package with a different one. Of those who do not offer existing insurance, the most common reason is that it is "too expensive" or the employer is "not profitable." A very small proportion do not offer insurance because they do not qualify for it due to medical underwriting considerations. Prospects tend to be larger than non-prospects in terms of sales, but employ lower wage employees, on average. About half of prospects are in service industries, a proportion typical of small employers in general. Somewhat surprisingly, most prospects have been in operation for over five years. They are not new firms attempting to establish their benefit packages. This is consistent with the findings on gross sales, suggesting that some maturity is necessary before an employer considers offering group health insurance as a benefit. The prepaid plans in this study also appeared to target established employers for their marketing efforts. In responding to questions about their attitudes towards health insurance, over one-quarter of prospects indicated that they would be unwilling to offer insurance at rates so low that they would not normally apply to the coverages offered by prepaid plans. Thus, although they were "prospects" by the study's definition, they were unlikely to eventually contract with prepaid plans. Those prospects that had offered insurance previously, but had discontinued it, tended to cite premium increases as the reason. This suggests that prospects among small employers are likely to be very price sensitive, and that further prescreening of prospects by phone, during which premium levels are discussed, might be cost-effective in following up leads from mass mailings. The study data also suggest the importance of quick follow-up for mass mailing leads, as the drop-off in recall and interest appears to be substantial. About half of the prospects interviewed stated that they were unaware of AHCG, although they or someone in their business had returned a mailer requesting more information. In addition to their implications for marketing to small employers, the results of the study appear to have broader policy implications as well.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

The Role of Prospective Memory in Medication Adherence: A Review of an Emerging Literature

PubMed Central

Zogg, Jennifer B.; Woods, Steven Paul; Sauceda, John A.; Wiebe, John S.; Simoni, Jane M.

2013-01-01

Although neurocognitive impairment is an established risk factor for medication non-adherence, standard neurocognitive tests developed for clinical purposes may not fully capture the complexities of non-adherence behavior or effectively inform theory-driven interventions. Prospective memory, an innovative cognitive construct describing one’s ability to remember to do something at a later time, is an understudied factor in the detection and remediation of medication non-adherence. This review orients researchers to the construct of prospective memory, summarizes empirical evidence for prospective memory as a risk factor for non-adherence, discusses the relative merits of current measurement techniques, and highlights potential prospective memory-focused intervention strategies. A comprehensive literature review was conducted of published empirical studies investigating prospective memory and medication adherence. Overall, reviewed studies suggest that prospective memory is an important component of medication adherence, providing incremental ecological validity over established predictors. Findings indicate that prospective memory-based interventions might be an effective means of improving adherence. PMID:21487722

The Investigation of the Effects of Authentic Assessment Approach on Prospective Teachers' Problem-Solving Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinay, Ismail; Bagçeci, Birsen

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of authentic assessment, an approach used in Scientific Research Methods, on problem solving skills of prospective classroom teachers. The participant groups of the study consisted of sophomore prospective teachers who study at Dicle University in the Ziya Gökalp Education Faculty Classroom…

Basic Needs as a Predictors of Prospective Teachers' Self-Actualization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arslan, Ali

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive power of prospective teachers' basic needs on self-actualization. This is a correlational research which is one of the descriptive research methods. The study was conducted on 1033 prospective teachers studying in Bulent Ecevit University Eregli Faculty of Education in the spring term of the…

A Study on Prospective Science Teachers' Knowledge and Achievement Levels in Mathematical Logic in Electricity-Related Subjects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yilmaz, Ismail

2012-01-01

The purpose of this case study is to reveal prospective science teachers' knowledge and achievement levels in electricity-related subjects. The data for the study were collected from 44 prospective teachers using three measurement tools. The data were then analyzed using software developed for the Probability and Possibility Calculation Statistics…

Prospective Pre-School Teachers' Attitudes towards Astronomy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Türk, Cumhur; Demir, Esra

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the changes in prospective pre-school teachers' attitudes towards astronomy in terms of their grades. The study was conducted with 205 prospective teachers (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th graders) studying in the education faculty of a university in Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. Astronomy Attitude Scale (AAS) was…

The Limitations of a Prospective Study of Memories for Child Sexual Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheit, Ross E.

2003-01-01

Prospective studies have been held out as a kind of Holy Grail in research about remembering or forgetting child sexual abuse. They seem to hold the perfect answer to the verification problems that plague retrospective self-reports in the clinical literature. Prospective studies begin with verified cases of abuse. Then they require detective work…

Examining Cognitive Structures of Prospective Preschool Teachers Concerning the Subject "Force and Motion"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Timur, Serkan

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify the cognitive structures of prospective preschool teachers concerning the concepts included in the subject "force and motion". The study was conducted on a total of 56 prospective teachers who studied Preschool Teaching at Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University. The Word Association Test (WAT) was…

Examining the Image of Prospective Teachers towards Mathematicians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yazlik, Derya Ozlem; Erdogan, Ahmet

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to identify how prospective teachers see mathematicians by the pictures they visualized. In accordance with this purpose phenomenology pattern which is one of the qualitative patterns was used. The study was carried out with 160 volunteered prospective teachers. The data collection tool to be used in this study consists of…

Investigating Prospective Teachers' Ability to Write Context-Based Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ültay, Neslihan; Donmez Usta, Necla

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the prospective teachers' ability to write context-based problems about the concepts in radioactivity unit. Methodology: The study is carried out in a university in Turkey with 21 prospective teachers in physics, chemistry and biology in 2014-2015 fall terms. In the study, data are collected…

A Case Study on Mathematical Literacy of Prospective Elementary School Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suharta, I. Gusti Putu; Suarjana, I. Made

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to describe Mathematical Literacy (ML) of Prospective Elementary School Teachers with attention to aspects of mathematical skills and gender. The type of research is qualitative with the research design of Case Study. Respondents are assigned 12 Prospective Elementary School Teachers, consisting of 6 men and 6 women.…

Undesired Teacher Behaviours According to the Studentship Memories of Prospective Teachers in Primary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polat, Hüseyin

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the types of undesired behaviours observed by prospective primary school teachers during their studentship at primary school. 35 voluntary prospective teachers studying at the faculty of education in Adiyaman University participated into the study, which was conducted within qualitative research techniques.…

Do Prospective Teachers Have Anxieties about Teaching Mathematics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yavuz, Günes

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyse the level of prospective classroom and mathematics teachers' anxieties about teaching mathematics. Freshman and junior prospective teachers from educational faculties of two different universities participated in this study. "Anxieties About Teaching Mathematics Scale" which was developed by Peker…

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

PubMed Central

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale. PMID:24205280

Content knowledge of prospective elementary school teacher for fractional concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattimukay, N.; Juniati, D.; Budiarto, M. T.

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to describe the content knowledge especially the concept of fraction of prospective elementary school teacher. The purpose of this study is to describe the content knowledge, especially the concept of fraction of prospective elementary school teacher. The subject of the study was one of prospective elementary school teacher of Pattimura University. This research is qualitative research. Data were collected through the provision of tests to explore the knowledge content of primary school teacher candidates about fractional concepts. Then continued with qualitative data analysis. The results of this study are as follows: that the prospective primary school teacher defines fractions as part of the whole if an object is divided into equal parts, so that the part that has been divided is part of the whole. Furthermore, the prospective elementary school teacher understood the fractions as division shown in two ways, namely the prospective elementary school teacher understood the fraction as a division operation, the primary school teacher candidate interpreted the fraction as a division when an object is divided be part of the same. Meanwhile, the fraction as a ratio is interpreted as the relationship between a pair of numbers. Then, the denominations are interpreted as a ratio between the numerator and the denominator of the same value. The prospective elementary school teacher also understands fractions of value when simplifying fractions. Primary school teacher candidates understand the concept of fractional operations.

Turkish Prospective Teachers' Understanding and Misunderstanding on Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ocal, A.; Kisoglu, M.; Alas, A.; Gurbuz, H.

2011-01-01

The key objective of this study is to determine the Turkish elementary prospective teachers' opinions on global warming. It is also aimed to establish prospective teachers' views about the environmental education in Turkish universities. A true-false type scale was administered to 564 prospective teachers from science education, social studies…

Prospective Secondary Mathematics Teachers' Reflections on Teaching after Their First Teaching Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yazgan-Sag, Gönül; Emre-Akdogan, Elçin; Argün, Ziya

2016-01-01

The aim of our study was to examine prospective secondary mathematics teachers' reflections about teaching after their first teaching experience. We carried out five interviews during the two semesters with four Turkish prospective secondary mathematics teachers. The data analysis suggests that prospective secondary mathematics teachers'…

Perceptions of Prospective Teachers about Tolerance Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Cavus

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study is to ascertain the perceptions of prospective teachers about tolerance education. This research is a descriptive, qualitative study. A semi-structured and non-directive interview technique is used for collecting data. Research is carried out with 30 prospective teachers who attend Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University…

Prospective Teachers' Perceptions on Education Policy: A Metaphor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sezer, Senol

2018-01-01

This study aiming to determine the metaphorical perceptions of prospective teachers regarding Turkey's education policies was modelled in the 'phenomenological pattern' which one of the qualitative research methods. The study group was 150 prospective teachers. Data was collected using a metaphor form and via focus group interviews. Descriptive…

Prospective Prediction of Women's Sexual Victimization by Intimate and Nonintimate Male Perpetrators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol; Livingston, Jennifer A.

2007-01-01

Although behavioral risk factors such as substance use have been hypothesized to increase women's vulnerability to sexual victimization, prospective studies provide mixed empirical support. In the current prospective study, the authors considered substance use, sexual activity, and sexual assertiveness as predictors of sexual victimization from…

A Study on Prospective Teachers' Self-Efficacy Beliefs Regarding the Implementation of Constructivist Approach (A Case of Konya)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ektem, Isil Sönmez

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to reveal prospective teachers' perceptions and views about the implementation of the constructivist approach. The study was conducted on 528 prospective teachers in their 4th year at Necmettin Erbakan University Ahmet Kelesoglu Education Faculty and Selcuk University Faculty of Science and Faculty of Letters in the…

A Comparative Study of Problematic Internet Use and Loneliness among Turkish and Korean Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tutgun, Aylin; Deniz, Levent; Moon, Man-Ki

2011-01-01

The main aim of this study is to compare the problematic internet use and its relation to loneliness among two nations' prospective teachers, Turkey and South Korea. Five hundred and ninety five prospective teachers from three universities, two from Turkey and one from South Korea participated in the study. Generalized Problematic Internet Use…

Does Involuntary Mental Time Travel Make Sense in Prospective Teachers' Feelings and Behaviors during Lessons?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay; Yesilbursa, Amanda

2013-01-01

This study examined the effects of involuntary mental time travel into the past and into the future on prospective teachers' feelings and behaviors during the period of a class hour. A total of 110 prospective teachers participated voluntarily in the study. The results of the present study showed that (a) the involuntary mental time travel into…

Investigation of Prospective Primary Mathematics Teachers' Perceptions and Images for Quadrilaterals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turnuklu, Elif; Gundogdu Alayli, Funda; Akkas, Elif Nur

2013-01-01

The object of this study was to show how prospective elementary mathematics teachers define and classify the quadrilaterals and to find out their images. This research was a qualitative study. It was conducted with 36 prospective elementary mathematics teachers studying at 3rd and 4th years in an educational faculty. The data were collected by…

Level of Self-Efficacy of Prospective Mathematics Teachers on Competencies for Planning and Organizing Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San, Ismail

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the level of self-efficacy of prospective mathematics teachers (PMTs) on the competency "planning and organizing instruction" that is one of the teacher competencies identified in 2009 by Ministry of Education. The sample of this study consists of 111 total prospective teachers (PTs) study in…

The Evaluation of the Opinions of Prospective Teachers about the Objectives of Human Rights Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özbek, Ramazan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate opinions of prospective teachers attending Social Sciences Teaching Department Primary Education Section on the objectives of Human Rights Education in the scope of Citizenship and Democracy Education Curriculum. This study is vital for learning of democratic life. 25 prospective teachers studying in the 8th…

Investigation of Prospective Teachers' Beliefs towards Authentic Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinay, Ismail

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the prospective teachers' beliefs toward authentic assessment in relation to various variables. The survey method has been used in this study and the sample of the study is comprised of 612 prospective teachers 368 (60.1%) of whom are female and 244 (39.9%) of whom are male. The "Authentic Assessment Belief…

A Relative Investigation on Purposes of Computer and Internet Use of Prospective Geography Teachers in Turkey and China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turan, Ilhan

2015-01-01

This study investigated Chinese and Turkish prospective geography teachers' use of computer and internet applications as indispensable instruments in and out of education. 292 prospective geography teachers students from Shanghai, China, and Izmir, Turkey, participated in this study. The aim of this study was to examine the use of computers and…

Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

PubMed

Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

2014-11-01

Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An extended PROSPECT: Advance in the leaf optical properties model separating total chlorophylls into chlorophyll a and b.

PubMed

Zhang, Yao; Huang, Jingfeng; Wang, Fumin; Blackburn, George Alan; Zhang, Hankui K; Wang, Xiuzhen; Wei, Chuanwen; Zhang, Kangyu; Wei, Chen

2017-07-25

The PROSPECT leaf optical model has, to date, well-separated the effects of total chlorophyll and carotenoids on leaf reflectance and transmittance in the 400-800 nm. Considering variations in chlorophyll a:b ratio with leaf age and physiological stress, a further separation of total plant-based chlorophylls into chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b is necessary for advanced monitoring of plant growth. In this study, we present an extended version of PROSPECT model (hereafter referred to as PROSPECT-MP) that can combine the effects of chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids on leaf directional hemispherical reflectance and transmittance (DHR and DHT) in the 400-800 nm. The LOPEX93 dataset was used to evaluate the capabilities of PROSPECT-MP for spectra modelling and pigment retrieval. The results show that PROSPECT-MP can both simultaneously retrieve leaf chlorophyll a and b, and also performs better than PROSPECT-5 in retrieving carotenoids concentrations. As for the simulation of DHR and DHT, the performances of PROSPECT-MP are similar to that of PROSPECT-5. This study demonstrates the potential of PROSPECT-MP for improving capabilities of remote sensing of leaf photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b and carotenoids) and for providing a framework for future refinements in the modelling of leaf optical properties.

Hawaiian temples and their orientations: issues of method and interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruggles, Clive L. N.

2015-08-01

In 2002 I began a collaboration with Pat Kirch (Berkeley) to survey the temple sites (heiau) in the Kahikinui and Kaupo districts of southern Maui, and study their orientations and potential astronomical significance. Our investigations of over 70 temples in the area were completed in 2011 and are due for publication in 2016. Pat Kirch will present some of our main conclusions in his keynote talk within FM2. In this paper I propose to concentrate on issues of field methodology and procedure that have wider implications for developments in method and practice within archaeoastronomy. Methodologically, temple sites in the Hawaiian Islands constitute a "halfway house" between prehistoric monuments in Europe, where the only evidence is archaeological and studies of orientations tend to follow formal, "data-driven" or statistical, approaches, and Mesoamerica, where the existence of pre-conquest written records and inscriptions and post-conquest ethnohistory relegate "alignment studies" to a secondary role. In Hawai‘i, cultural data, including oral histories recorded after conquest, provide a finer balance between historical accounts and the physical evidence. Selection issues at the Maui temple sites include distinguishing marginal temple sites from house sites and identifying the intended direction of orientation at complex structures. Initial analyses of the principal orientations identified clusterings in orientation which were interpreted as relating to different gods, and particular the war-god Ku and the god of dryland agriculture, Lono. Later, more comprehensive surveys revealed evidence of observing platforms and foresights at some of the Lono temples, suggesting that systematic observations were made of the Pleiades, known from the ethnohistory to be of particular calendrical significance. This type of alignment evidence is too subjective to be sustained on the basis of a formal analysis alone but, given the historical context, provides a more robust cultural interpretation.

Objective measures of prospective memory do not correlate with subjective complaints in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Chan, Raymond C K; Wang, Ya; Ma, Zheng; Hong, Xiao-hong; Yuan, Yanbo; Yu, Xin; Li, Zhanjiang; Shum, David; Gong, Qi-yong

2008-08-01

While a number of studies have shown that individuals with schizophrenia are impaired on various types of prospective memory, few studies have examined the relationship between subjective and objective measures of this construct in this clinical group. The purpose of the current study was to explore the relationship between computer-based prospective memory tasks and the corresponding subjective complaints in patients with schizophrenia, individuals with schizotypal personality features, and healthy volunteers. The findings showed that patients with schizophrenia demonstrated significantly poorer performance in all domains of memory function except visual memory than individuals with schizotypal personality disorder and healthy controls. More importantly, there was a significant interaction effect of prospective memory type and group. Although patients with schizophrenia were found to show significantly poorer performance on computer-based measures of prospective memory than controls, their level of subjective complaint was not found to be significantly higher. While subjective complaints of prospective memory were found to associate significantly with self-reported executive dysfunctions, significant relationships were not found between these complaints and performance on a computer-based task of prospective memory and other objective measures of memory. Taken together, these findings suggest that subjective and objective measures of prospective memory are two distinct domains that might need to be assessed and addressed separately.

Prospective Primary Teachers' Mathematics Anxiety-Apprehension and Its Causes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özdemir, Emine; Seker, Burcu Sezginsoy

2017-01-01

The study aims to investigate the mathematics anxiety-apprehension of prospective primary school teachers and its causes. The mathematics anxiety-apprehension of the prospective primary school teachers was analyzed using a number of variables. The prospective teachers were asked to provide written answers to open-ended questions about the causes…

Predictors of Time-Based Prospective Memory in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackinlay, Rachael J.; Kliegel, Matthias; Mantyla, Timo

2009-01-01

This study identified age differences in time-based prospective memory performance in school-aged children and explored possible cognitive correlates of age-related performance. A total of 56 7- to 12-year-olds performed a prospective memory task in which prospective memory accuracy, ongoing task performance, and time monitoring were assessed.…

On the Content-Dependence of Prospective Teachers' Knowledge: A Case of Exemplifying Definitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leikin, Roza; Zazkis, Rina

2010-01-01

In this article, we demonstrate that prospective teachers' content knowledge related to defining mathematical concepts is dependent on content area. We use the example of generation (a research tool we developed in a previous study) to investigate prospective teachers' knowledge. We asked prospective secondary mathematics teachers to provide…

Turkish Prospective Chemistry Teachers' Alternative Conceptions about Acids and Bases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boz, Yezdan

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to obtain prospective chemistry teachers' conceptions about acids and bases concepts. Thirty-eight prospective chemistry teachers were the participants. Data were collected by means of an open-ended questionnaire and semi-structured interviews. Analysis of data indicated that most prospective teachers did not have…

Preservice Science and Technology Teachers' Pedagogical Content Knowledge on Cell Topics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Usak, Muhammet

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explain prospective science and technology teachers' pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) about the cell. Lesson preparation, laboratory plan, interview with teacher candidates, and concept mapping were used to collect the data for prospective teacher's PCK. The study was conducted with six prospective science and…

Using Blended Learning for Enhancing EFL Prospective Teachers' Pedagogical Knowledge and Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Badawi, Mohamed Farrag

2009-01-01

The basic objective of the present study is to investigate the effectiveness of using blended learning model in developing EFL prospective teachers' pedagogical knowledge and performance. The study sample included 38 EFL Saudi prospective teachers (fourth-year students) at the Faculty of Education & Arts, University of Tabuk, KSA. To collect…

Multiple Intelligence and Digital Learning Awareness of Prospective B.Ed Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gracious, F. L. Antony; Shyla, F. L. Jasmine Anne

2012-01-01

The present study Multiple Intelligence and Digital Learning Awareness of prospective B.Ed teachers was probed to find the relationship between Multiple Intelligence and Digital Learning Awareness of Prospective B.Ed Teachers. Data for the study were collected using self made Multiple Intelligence Inventory and Digital Learning Awareness Scale.…

Prospective Secondary Science Teachers' Argumentation Skills and the Interaction of These Skills with Their Conceptual Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Acar, Ömer; Patton, Bruce R.; White, Arthur L.

2015-01-01

This study investigated if prospective secondary science teachers enhance their argumentation skills and the interaction of the change in their argumentation skills with their conceptual knowledge during an argumentation-based guided inquiry course. 37 prospective secondary science teachers constituted the study sample. They were grouped according…

Examining Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Pedagogical Content Knowledge on Fractions in Terms of Students' Mistakes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Ömer; Gökkurt, Burçin; Soylu, Yasin

2016-01-01

The aim of the study is to examine prospective mathematics teachers' pedagogical content knowledge in terms of knowledge of understanding students and knowledge of instructional strategies which are the subcomponents of pedagogical content knowledge. The participants of this research consist of 98 prospective teachers who are studying in two…

The Relation between Prospective Teachers' Goal Orientations and Academic E-Dishonesty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sicak, Ali; Arslan, Ali

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between prospective teachers' goal orientations and academic e-dishonesty behaviors, and also the effects of their goal orientations on academic e-dishonesty behaviors. This research was conducted with correlational method. Participants of the study were 669 prospective teachers attending at…

Teaching Practice and the Personal and Socio-Professional Development of Prospective Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoeman, S.; Mabunda, P. L.

2012-01-01

This study investigates the interplay between individual and contextual variables during teaching practice and its impact on the personal and socio-professional development of prospective teachers. The purpose of the study was to survey how prospective teachers experienced the process of becoming aware of their emerging identities as teachers, and…

Perceptions of Prospective Teachers on Digital Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çam, Emre; Kiyici, Mübin

2017-01-01

The aim of the quantitative study is to identify the digital literacy levels of prospective teachers in terms of several variables. The sample consisted of 354 prospective teachers studying in different departments of Sakarya University College of Education. The 30-item instrument used to gather the data was the "Digital Literacy Scale"…

Prospective Special Education Teachers' Metaphorical Perceptions on the Concept of Special Education Teacher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deniz, Levent

2016-01-01

The aim of this research is to define the perceptions of prospective special education teachers regarding special education teacher through metaphors. Phenomenology design was used in this research. The study group comprised 116 third year prospective special education teachers studying at Marmara University, Ataturk Faculty of Education, Special…

Prospective Primary School Teachers' Misconceptions about States of Matter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tatar, Erdal

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify prospective primary school teachers' misconceptions about the states of matter. The sample of the study was 227 fourth-year prospective primary school teachers in a Department of Primary Education in Turkey. Researcher asked from every participant to write a response to an open ended question about…

Prospective Elementary School Teachers' Views about Socioscientific Issues: A Concurrent Parallel Design Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özden, Muhammet

2015-01-01

The purpose of this research is to examine the prospective elementary school teachers' perceptions on socioscientific issues. The research was conducted on prospective elementary school teachers studying at a university located in western Turkey. The researcher first taught the subjects of global warming and nuclear power plants from a perspective…

A Quantitative Investigation of Prospective Teachers' Hopes and Their Motivational Forces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay; Yesilbursa, Amanda

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the diverse aspects of prospective teachers' dispositional hopes, teaching-specific hopes, and their sources, as well as to explore whether these would significantly predict their preparation for the teaching profession. A total of 851 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. A series of…

The Development of a Recycling Awareness Scale for Prospective Science Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksan, Zeynep; Çelikler, Dilek

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a scale for measuring prospective science teachers' awareness of waste recycling. The study was conducted with the participation of 382 prospective teachers attending a university located in northern Turkey. The five-point Likert type scale that was developed contained 82 items relating to prospective…

Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Perceptions on and Adaptation of Student-Centred Approach to Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osmanoglu, Aslihan; Dincer, Emrah Oguzhan

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate prospective secondary mathematics teachers' perceptions on and adaptation of student-centred approach to teaching. The study was conducted with 58 prospective secondary mathematics teachers who were the graduates from mathematics departments from different universities' Science and Literature faculties.…

Prospective Teachers' Future Time Perspective and Professional Plans about Teaching: The Mediating Role of Academic Optimism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eren, Altay

2012-01-01

This study aimed to examine the mediating role of prospective teachers' academic optimism in the relationship between their future time perspective and professional plans about teaching. A total of 396 prospective teachers voluntarily participated in the study. Correlation, regression, and structural equation modeling analyses were conducted in…

Resuscitative Hyperkalemia in Noncrush Trauma: A Prospective, Observational Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

Resuscitative Hyperkalemia in Noncrush Trauma: A Prospective, Observational Study Robert M. Perkins,*† Matthew C. Aboudara,* Kevin C. Abbott,*† and...Surgical Research, San Antonio, Texas The trauma patient is exposed to physiologic processes and life-saving interventions that predispose to hyperkalemia ...in the care of the massively traumatized patient may or may not increase the risk for hyperkalemia . This prospective, observational study was

Healthy together Victoria and childhood obesity-a methodology for measuring changes in childhood obesity in response to a community-based, whole of system cluster randomized control trial.

PubMed

Strugnell, Claudia; Millar, Lynne; Churchill, Andrew; Jacka, Felice; Bell, Colin; Malakellis, Mary; Swinburn, Boyd; Allender, Steve

2016-01-01

Healthy Together Victoria (HTV) - a complex 'whole of system' intervention, including an embedded cluster randomized control trial, to reduce chronic disease by addressing risk factors (physical inactivity, poor diet quality, smoking and harmful alcohol use) among children and adults in selected communities in Victoria, Australia (Healthy Together Communities). To describe the methodology for: 1) assessing changes in the prevalence of measured childhood obesity and associated risks between primary and secondary school students in HTV communities, compared with comparison communities; and 2) assessing community-level system changes that influence childhood obesity in HTC and comparison communities. Twenty-four geographically bounded areas were randomized to either prevention or comparison (2012). A repeat cross-sectional study utilising opt-out consent will collect objectively measured height, weight, waist and self-reported behavioral data among primary [Grade 4 (aged 9-10y) and Grade 6 (aged 11-12y)] and secondary [Grade 8 (aged 13-14y) and Grade 10 (aged 15-16y)] school students (2014 to 2018). Relationships between measured childhood obesity and system causes, as defined in the Foresight obesity systems map, will be assessed using a range of routine and customised data. This research methodology describes the beginnings of a state-wide childhood obesity monitoring system that can evolve to regularly inform progress on reducing obesity, and situate these changes in the context of broader community-level system change.

Civil society and the Health and Social Care Act in England and Wales: theory and praxis for the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Scambler, Graham; Scambler, Sasha; Speed, Ewen

2014-12-01

In this paper we revisit the notion of civil society in the light of recent attempts to privatize health care in England via the passing of the Health and Social Care Act of 2013. This legislation promises a re-commodification of the National Health Service (NHS) in England. The Bill was bitterly contested during its passage through parliament, most vigorously in 2011. Much of the opposition occurred at a time of widespread, global rebellion, most notably in the 'Arab uprisings' and through the 'occupy movement'. Despite a plethora of protests, we argue, a non-porous boundary between what we call the 'protest sector' of civil society and the wider public sphere of the lifeworld has become apparent in England. A good deal of collective action, whether campaign-focused (like opposition to the Health and Social Care Bill) or more generalized (like rejections of corporate greed), has so far proved ineffective, at least in the short-term; no crisis of legitimation is apparent. We highlight a new 'class/command dynamic', leading to oligarchic rule, in the present era of financial capitalism. We use this health care case-study to re-examine the notion of civil society and its changing properties in what Castells calls a 'networked society'. The contribution ends with a discussion of the role of the sociologist re-civil society and the advocacy of both 'action' and 'foresight sociologies'. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation into prospective memory in children with developmental dyslexia.

PubMed

Khan, Azizuddin

2014-01-01

Developmental dyslexia hinders reading and writing acquisition of around 5-10% of the children all over the world. However, little is known about role of prospective memory among dyslexics. Prospective memory is realization of delayed intention. Realization of delayed intention requires self initiated process. The present study explored the role of memory (prospective and retrospective memory), meta-memory and attention among dyslexic's children. One hundred and fifteen children (51 dyslexics and 64 normal controls) participated in the study. Prospective and retrospective memory questionnaire, everyday attention questionnaire and meta-memory were administered on children. Analysis of variance was used to analyses the data. All the main effects were significant. Some interactions were also found to be significant. Results suggest that dyslexic's performance on memory (prospective and retrospective memory) was worse than normal control. Meta-memory influences both dyslexics and normal control on prospective and retrospective memory. However, meta-memory affected dyslexics much more than normal control group. Similarly, significant differential effects were observed for simple, difficult and mixed attentional condition among between dyslexics and normal control. Dyslexic's performance was deteriorated as compared to normal control group. The findings of the study are discussed in the light of the existing literature.

An investigation into prospective memory in children with developmental dyslexia

PubMed Central

Khan, Azizuddin

2014-01-01

Developmental dyslexia hinders reading and writing acquisition of around 5–10% of the children all over the world. However, little is known about role of prospective memory among dyslexics. Prospective memory is realization of delayed intention. Realization of delayed intention requires self initiated process. The present study explored the role of memory (prospective and retrospective memory), meta-memory and attention among dyslexic's children. One hundred and fifteen children (51 dyslexics and 64 normal controls) participated in the study. Prospective and retrospective memory questionnaire, everyday attention questionnaire and meta-memory were administered on children. Analysis of variance was used to analyses the data. All the main effects were significant. Some interactions were also found to be significant. Results suggest that dyslexic's performance on memory (prospective and retrospective memory) was worse than normal control. Meta-memory influences both dyslexics and normal control on prospective and retrospective memory. However, meta-memory affected dyslexics much more than normal control group. Similarly, significant differential effects were observed for simple, difficult and mixed attentional condition among between dyslexics and normal control. Dyslexic's performance was deteriorated as compared to normal control group. The findings of the study are discussed in the light of the existing literature. PMID:25538638

Cleft lip and palate: a descriptive comparative, retrospective, and prospective study of patients with cleft deformities managed at 2 hospitals in Kenya.

PubMed

Wanjeri, Joseph Kimani; Wachira, John Makanga

2009-09-01

This was a combined retrospective and prospective study in which 2 sets of results from 2 hospitals in Nairobi were analyzed and compared. The retrospective study was conducted at Kenyatta National Hospital, whereas the prospective study was conducted at Metropolitan Hospital.The main objective of the study was to establish the presentation and pattern of patients with cleft lip and palate and complications of repair at the 2 hospitals.In the retrospective arm of the study, files of all patients presenting with clefts at Kenyatta National Hospital between January 1998 and December 2007 were retrieved, and a questionnaire was filled out for each of them, whereas all patients seen and operated on for clefts at the Metropolitan Hospital from January 2007 to October 2008 were recruited into the prospective study.There was a predominance of male participants in both studies, and most clefts were on the left side. The retrospective and prospective studies had positive family history in 3.5% and 30.9%, respectively. Associated congenital malformations were 8.2% for the retrospective study and 25% for the prospective study. In both studies, the central province had the largest number of clefts, whereas the coast province had very few.Cleft lip and palate is a significant congenital malformation in Kenya, and there seems to be a higher incidence of familial tendency and associated congenital malformations than that reported elsewhere.

Examining Mathematical Task and Pedagogical Usability of Web Contents Authored by Prospective Mathematics Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akayuure, Peter; Apawu, Jones

2015-01-01

The study was designed to engage prospective mathematics teachers in creating web learning modules. The aim was to examine the mathematical task and perceived pedagogical usability of the modules for mathematics instructions in Ghana. The study took place at University of Education, Winneba. Classes of 172 prospective mathematics teachers working…

Perceived Problem Solving Skills: As a Predictor of Prospective Teachers' Scientific Epistemological Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Temel, Senar

2016-01-01

This study aims to determine the level of perceived problem solving skills of prospective teachers and the relations between these skills and their scientific epistemological beliefs. The study was conducted in the fall semester of 2015-2016 academic year. Prospective teachers were applied Problem Solving Inventory which was developed by Heppner…

Do Prospective Classroom Teachers Perceive Themselves as Effective and Willing to Teach Young Learners English?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sad, Süleyman Nihat

2015-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the perceived efficacy and willingness levels of prospective classroom teachers to teach English at the primary level. The study was designed as a baseline descriptive survey, followed by complementary correlational and ex post facto models. Participants were 251 prospective classroom teachers. Data was collected…

Effects of Formative Assessment on Prospective Teachers' Achievement, Attitudes and Self-Regulation Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kincal, Remzi Y.; Ozan, Ceyhun

2018-01-01

The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of formative assessment on prospective teachers' academic achievement, attitudes towards educational measurement and self-regulation skills. In the study, quasi-experimental design including non-equivalent pre-test and post-test control group. There are 40 prospective teachers in each one of the…

The Effect of Video-Based Approach on Prospective Teachers' Ability to Analyze Mathematics Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alsawaie, Othman N.; Alghazo, Iman M.

2010-01-01

This is an intervention study that explored the effect of using video lesson analysis methodology (VLAM) on the ability of prospective middle/high school mathematics teachers to analyze mathematics teaching. The sample of the study consisted of 26 female prospective mathematics teachers enrolled in a methods course at the United Arab Emirates…

The Relationship between Attitudes of Prospective Physical Education Teachers towards Education Technologies and Computer Self-Efficacy Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalemoglu Varol, Yaprak

2014-01-01

The aim of research is to investigate the relationship between attitudes of prospective physical education teacher towards education technologies and their computer self-efficacy beliefs. Relational research method has been used in the study. Study group consists of 337 prospective physical education teachers ("M"[subscript age] = 21.57…

Are Creative Comparisons Developed by Prospective Chemistry Teachers Evidence of Their Conceptual Understanding? The Case of Inter- and Intramolecular Forces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sendur, Gulten

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine prospective chemistry teachers' creative comparisons about the basic concepts of inter- and intramolecular forces, and to uncover the relationship between these creative comparisons and prospective teachers' conceptual understanding. Based on a phenomenological research method, this study was conducted with…

The Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes and Views about Using Problem-Based Learning in Statistics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canturk-Gunhan, Berna; Bukova-Guzel, Esra; Ozgur, Zekiye

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine prospective mathematics teachers' views about using problem-based learning (PBL) in statistics teaching and to examine their thought processes. It is a qualitative study conducted with 15 prospective mathematics teachers from a state university in Turkey. The data were collected via participant observation…

A Conceptual Analysis of the Knowledge of Prospective Mathematics Teachers about Degree and Radian

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tuna, Abdulkadir

2013-01-01

This study examined the knowledge levels of prospective mathematics teachers about the concepts of degree and radian, which are among the angle measuring units that constitute the basis of trigonometry, and the relationships between those concepts. The study group consisted of 93 prospective mathematics teachers attending a state university in…

Prospective Elementary Science Teachers' Understanding of Photosynthesis and Cellular Respiration in the Context of Multiple Biological Levels as Nested Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akçay, Süleyman

2017-01-01

In this study, Turkish prospective elementary science teachers' understanding of photosynthesis and cellular respiration has been analysed within the contexts of ecosystem knowledge, organism knowledge and interconnection knowledge (IK). In the analysis, concept maps developed by 74 prospective teachers were used. The study was carried out with…

Opinions of Prospective Preschool Teachers about Smart Board Use for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildirim, Günseli

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the opinions of prospective preschool teachers studying in education faculties at Turkey about smart board use for education. To achieve this aim, prospective preschool teachers in the Department of Preschool Teacher Education, DokuzEylül University were asked with five open-ended questions through a…

Impact of Religion on Turkish Prospective Early Childhood Teachers' Judgments of Fact

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kotaman, Hüseyin

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of religion on prospective early childhood teachers' judgments of fact and reasoning. Six hundred and sixteen prospective early childhood teachers from seven different cities and universities in Turkey participated in the study. Participants read the religious story of "King Solomon and the…

The Effects of an Undergraduate Algebra Course on Prospective Middle School Teachers' Understanding of Functions, Especially Quadratic Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duarte, Jonathan T.

2010-01-01

Although current reform movements have stressed the importance of developing prospective middle school mathematics teachers' subject matter knowledge and understandings, there is a dearth of research studies with regard to prospective middle school teachers' confidence and knowledge with respect to quadratic functions. This study was intended to…

Field Trip to Kazdagi National Park: Views of Prospective Biology Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çetin, Gülcan

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to investigate the views of the prospective biology teachers about the field trip to Kazdagi National Park. Participants were 12 prospective Biology teachers studying in Necatibey Faculty of Education in Balikesir University, Turkey. A semi-structured interview form was used as a data collection instrument. Data were…

Integrated Database And Knowledge Base For Genomic Prospective Cohort Study In Tohoku Medical Megabank Toward Personalized Prevention And Medicine.

PubMed

Ogishima, Soichi; Takai, Takako; Shimokawa, Kazuro; Nagaie, Satoshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Nakaya, Jun

2015-01-01

The Tohoku Medical Megabank project is a national project to revitalization of the disaster area in the Tohoku region by the Great East Japan Earthquake, and have conducted large-scale prospective genome-cohort study. Along with prospective genome-cohort study, we have developed integrated database and knowledge base which will be key database for realizing personalized prevention and medicine.

Comparing the usefulness of the 1997 and 2009 WHO dengue case classification: a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Horstick, Olaf; Jaenisch, Thomas; Martinez, Eric; Kroeger, Axel; See, Lucy Lum Chai; Farrar, Jeremy; Ranzinger, Silvia Runge

2014-09-01

The 1997 and 2009 WHO dengue case classifications were compared in a systematic review with 12 eligible studies (4 prospective). Ten expert opinion articles were used for discussion. For the 2009 WHO classification studies show: when determining severe dengue sensitivity ranges between 59-98% (88%/98%: prospective studies), specificity between 41-99% (99%: prospective study) - comparing the 1997 WHO classification: sensitivity 24.8-89.9% (24.8%/74%: prospective studies), specificity: 25%/100% (100%: prospective study). The application of the 2009 WHO classification is easy, however for (non-severe) dengue there may be a risk of monitoring increased case numbers. Warning signs validation studies are needed. For epidemiological/pathogenesis research use of the 2009 WHO classification, opinion papers show that ease of application, increased sensitivity (severe dengue) and international comparability are advantageous; 3 severe dengue criteria (severe plasma leakage, severe bleeding, severe organ manifestation) are useful research endpoints. The 2009 WHO classification has clear advantages for clinical use, use in epidemiology is promising and research use may at least not be a disadvantage. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Preparing prospective physics teachers to teach integrated science in junior high school

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiyanto; Hartono; Nugroho, S. E.

2018-03-01

The physics education study program especially prepares its students to teach physics in senior high school, however in reality many its graduates have become science teachers in junior high school. Therefore introducing integrated science to prospective physics teachers is important, because based on the curriculum, science in the junior high school should be taught integratedly. This study analyzed integrated science teaching materials that developed by prospective physics teachers. Results from this study showed that majority of the integration materials that developed by the prospective physics teachers focused on topic with an overlapping concept or theme as connecting between two or three subjects.

Effects of cue frequency and repetition on prospective memory: an ERP investigation.

PubMed

Wilson, Jennifer; Cutmore, Tim R H; Wang, Ya; Chan, Raymond C K; Shum, David H K

2013-11-01

Prospective memory involves the formation and completion of delayed intentions and is essential for independent living. In this study (n = 33), event-related potentials (ERPs) were used to systematically evaluate the effects of PM cue frequency (10% versus 30%) and PM cue repetition (high versus low) on ERP modulations. PM cues elicited prospective positivity and frontal positivity but not N300, perhaps due to the semantic nature of the task. Results of this study revealed an interesting interaction between PM cue frequency and PM cue repetition for prospective positivity and frontal positivity, highlighting the importance of taking both factors into account when designing future studies. © 2013.

Hospital-based surveillance for acute pesticide poisoning caused by neurotoxic and other pesticides in Tanzania.

PubMed

Lekei, Elikana; Ngowi, Aiwerasia V; London, Leslie

2014-12-01

Acute pesticide poisoning (APP), particularly with neurotoxic agents, is often under-reported in developing countries. This study aimed to estimate the burden of APP in Tanzania due to neurotoxic and other pesticides in order to propose a surveillance system. The study reviewed hospital admission data for APP retrospectively (2000-2005) in 30 facilities in four regions of Tanzania. A prospective follow-up over 12 months in 2006 focused on 10 facilities with the highest reporting of APP. The majority of known poisoning agents were organophosphates or WHO class I and II pesticides. APP involving suicide was significantly more likely to be fatal in both retrospective (PRR fatal/non-fatal=3.8; 95% CI=1.8-8.0) and in prospective (PRR=8.7; 95% CI=1.1-65) studies. There was a significant association between suicide and gender (PRR female/male=1.5; 95% CI=1.1-2.0) in the prospective study. Occupational circumstances as a cause of APP, which was relatively small in both studies (8.5% in the retrospective and 10.2% in the prospective study) was less common amongst men compared to women (6.1% for males versus 12.0% for females) in the retrospective study but almost equal in prospective study (10.2% for males versus 10.1% for females). Contrasting retrospective to prospective studies, the annual incidence rate almost tripled (from 1.43 to 4.05 per 100,000) and mortality rate doubled (from 0.11 to 0.22 per 100,000). Case fatality declined accordingly from 7.8% to 5.6% in prospective study. The study revealed a substantial improvement in the completeness of data with prospective data collection. Missing data for circumstances and agents declined by 24.1% and 9.9%, respectively. Despite this improvement, routine reporting could only generate 33-50% of the information needed for a notification of banned or severely restricted chemicals under the Prior Informed Consent (PIC) convention. The two to threefold increase in rates with prospective data collection suggests significant under-reporting of APP by neurotoxic and other pesticides. Routine reporting is likely to under-estimate the burden from pesticides, particularly for women in occupational settings. The burden of APP and the specific pesticides causing serious problems in Tanzania would continue to be missed without improved surveillance systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychophysiology of prospective memory.

PubMed

Rothen, Nicolas; Meier, Beat

2014-01-01

Prospective memory involves the self-initiated retrieval of an intention upon an appropriate retrieval cue. Cue identification can be considered as an orienting reaction and may thus trigger a psychophysiological response. Here we present two experiments in which skin conductance responses (SCRs) elicited by prospective memory cues were compared to SCRs elicited by aversive stimuli to test whether a single prospective memory cue triggers a similar SCR as an aversive stimulus. In Experiment 2 we also assessed whether cue specificity had a differential influence on prospective memory performance and on SCRs. We found that detecting a single prospective memory cue is as likely to elicit a SCR as an aversive stimulus. Missed prospective memory cues also elicited SCRs. On a behavioural level, specific intentions led to better prospective memory performance. However, on a psychophysiological level specificity had no influence. More generally, the results indicate reliable SCRs for prospective memory cues and point to psychophysiological measures as valuable approach, which offers a new way to study one-off prospective memory tasks. Moreover, the findings are consistent with a theory that posits multiple prospective memory retrieval stages.

The Relationship between the Individual Values and Critical Thinking Skills of Prospective Social Sciences Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nalcaci, Ahmet

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the individual values and critical thinking skills of prospective social sciences teachers. The sample of the research is composed of a total of 298 prospective teachers, who are first-year, second-year, third-year and fourth-year students. These prospective teachers were randomly…

Prospective memory across adolescence: the effects of age and cue focality.

PubMed

Wang, Lijuan; Altgassen, Mareike; Liu, Wei; Xiong, Weirui; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

2011-01-01

The present study examined the role of controlled attention in age differences in event-based prospective memory performance across adolescence. The researchers tested whether presenting the prospective memory cue in or out of focal awareness of the ongoing task (resulting in low versus high demands for controlled attention, respectively) might affect age-related prospective memory performance. In total, 119 Chinese participants ages 13 to 20 took part in this study (60 adolescents: age M = 13.26 years, SD = 0.50; 23 boys; 59 young adults: age M = 19.70 years, SD = 0.87; 19 men). Findings demonstrated a significant interaction, F(1, 114) = 6.41, p < .05. No effect of age on prospective memory performance was revealed when a focal cue was used (F < 1), whereas there was a reliable age effect between adolescents and young adults when nonfocal prospective memory cues were presented, F(1, 59) = 16.13, p < .01. This pattern of results suggests that the interplay of both available resources of controlled attention and working memory, along with specific task demands, may contribute to possible age differences in prospective memory performance across adolescence. Results are discussed in the context of the multiprocess theory of prospective memory.

Effect of prospective reimbursement on nursing home costs.

PubMed Central

Coburn, A F; Fortinsky, R; McGuire, C; McDonald, T P

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE. This study evaluates the effect of Maine's Medicaid nursing home prospective payment system on nursing home costs and access to care for public patients. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING. The implementation of a facility-specific prospective payment system for nursing homes provided the opportunity for longitudinal study of the effect of that system. Data sources included audited Medicaid nursing home cost reports, quality-of-care data from state facility survey and licensure files, and facility case-mix information from random, stratified samples of homes and residents. Data were obtained for six years (1979-1985) covering the three-year period before and after implementation of the prospective payment system. STUDY DESIGN. This study used a pre-post, longitudinal analytical design in which interrupted, time-series regression models were estimated to test the effects of prospective payment and other factors, e.g., facility characteristics, nursing home market factors, facility case mix, and quality of care, on nursing home costs. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Prospective payment contributed to an estimated $3.03 decrease in total variable costs in the third year from what would have been expected under the previous retrospective cost-based payment system. Responsiveness to payment system efficiency incentives declined over the study period, however, indicating a growing problem in achieving further cost reductions. Some evidence suggested that cost reductions might have reduced access for public patients. CONCLUSIONS. Study findings are consistent with the results of other studies that have demonstrated the effectiveness of prospective payment systems in restraining nursing home costs. Potential policy trade-offs among cost containment, access, and quality assurance deserve further consideration, particularly by researchers and policymakers designing the new generation of case mix-based and other nursing home payment systems. PMID:8463109

A Meta-Analysis of Cognitive Impairment and Decline Associated with Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Women with Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Ono, Miyuki; Ogilvie, James M.; Wilson, Jennifer S.; Green, Heather J.; Chambers, Suzanne K.; Ownsworth, Tamara; Shum, David H. K.

2015-01-01

A meta-analysis was performed to quantify the magnitude and nature of the association between adjuvant chemotherapy and performance on a range of cognitive domains among breast cancer patients. A total of 27 studies (14 cross-sectional, 8 both cross-sectional and prospective, and 5 prospective) were included in the analyses, involving 1562 breast cancer patients who had undergone adjuvant chemotherapy and 2799 controls that included breast cancer patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. A total of 737 effect sizes (Cohen’s d) were calculated for cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal studies separately and classified into eight cognitive domains. The mean effect sizes varied across cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal studies (ranging from −1.12 to 0.62 and −0.29 to 1.12, respectively). Each cognitive domain produced small effect sizes for cross-sectional and prospective longitudinal studies (ranging from −0.25 to 0.41). Results from cross-sectional studies indicated a significant association between adjuvant chemotherapy and cognitive impairment that held across studies with varied methodological approaches. For prospective studies, results generally indicated that cognitive functioning improved over time after receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. Greater cognitive impairment was reported in cross-sectional studies comparing chemotherapy groups with healthy control groups. Results suggested that cognitive impairment is present among breast cancer patients irrespective of a history of chemotherapy. Prospective longitudinal research is warranted to examine the degree and persisting nature of cognitive impairment present both before and after chemotherapy, with comparisons made to participants’ cognitive function prior to diagnosis. Accurate understanding of the effects of chemotherapy is essential to enable informed decisions regarding treatment and to improve quality of life among breast cancer patients. PMID:25806355

Silver Anniversary: 25 Editions of the IMIA Yearbook.

PubMed

Lehmann, C U; Jaulent, M-C; Séroussi, B

2016-05-20

To provide an editorial introduction into the special 25th anniversary edition of the IMIA Yearbook of Medical Informatics with discussion of the significance of the Yearbook, past and current editorial teams, and a look into the future. A brief overview of the 2016 anniversary edition of the Yearbook allows for a discussion of the significance and value of the Yearbook to the Biomedical Informatics community as well as a review of changes in Yearbook team and format over time. The IMIA Yearbook celebrates its 25th edition bearing witness to the quality of the IMIA brand, the Yearbook content, as well as to the dedication of and the inordinate amount of labor from the authors and editors of the Yearbook. Editorial teams are to be applauded for their hard work and for their foresight in steering the Yearbook from a paperback to an open access online publication. The special edition provides reviews of past editorials with the knowledge of today. The IMIA Yearbook celebrates a remarkable milestone providing a testament to the maturity of the Biomedical Informatics field. Informaticians across the world are encouraged to thank past editorial teams and celebrate with IMIA.

Developmental effects of aggressive behavior in male adolescents assessed with structural and functional brain imaging

PubMed Central

Strenziok, Maren; Krueger, Frank; Heinecke, Armin; Lenroot, Rhoshel K.; Knutson, Kristine M.; van der Meer, Elke

2011-01-01

Aggressive behavior is common during adolescence. Although aggression-related functional changes in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and frontopolar cortex (FPC) have been reported in adults, the neural correlates of aggressive behavior in adolescents, particularly in the context of structural neurodevelopment, are obscure. We used functional and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to measure the blood oxygenation level-depended signal and cortical thickness. In a block-designed experiment, 14–17-year old adolescents imagined aggressive and non-aggressive interactions with a peer. We show reduced vmPFC activation associated with imagined aggressive behavior as well as enhanced aggression-related activation and cortical thinning in the FPC with increasing age. Changes in FPC activation were also associated with judgments of the severity of aggressive acts. Reduced vmPFC activation was associated with greater aggression indicating its normal function is to exert inhibitory control over aggressive impulses. Concurrent FPC activation likely reflects foresight of harmful consequences that result from aggressive acts. The correlation of age-dependent activation changes and cortical thinning demonstrates ongoing maturation of the FPC during adolescence towards a refinement of social and cognitive information processing that can potentially facilitate mature social behavior in aggressive contexts. PMID:19770220

William Penn and the peace of Europe.

PubMed

Russell, W M S

2004-01-01

The Quaker William Penn proposed a European Union to ensure peace in the continent in 1693. Penn was unusual among Quakers in being of the landed upper classes. When converted, he became a leader of the Quakers and other Dissenters. He had the two related ideals of peace and religious toleration, and dreamed of realizing both ideals in the New World. A practical idealist, he took advantage of four factors: friends at Court made through his social position; King Charles II's gratitude for services rendered by his father, Admiral Sir William Penn; the King's desire to conciliate the City merchants, who were ready to invest in Penn's scheme; and above all the King's concern to get North America settled by British colonists. Penn received a charter to found Pennsylvania in 1681. In England he worked hard, especially in collaboration with James II, for toleration for the cruelly persecuted Quakers and other Dissenters. In Pennsylvania he was able to establish complete toleration and his fair and friendly treatment gave the colony 70 years of peaceful co-existence with the Indians. In his essay on the peace of Europe, he virtually invented collective security and with amazing foresight planned in detail something very like the present European Union.

Disorder-specific functional abnormalities during temporal discounting in youth with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Autism and comorbid ADHD and Autism.

PubMed

Chantiluke, Kaylita; Christakou, Anastasia; Murphy, Clodagh M; Giampietro, Vincent; Daly, Eileen M; Ecker, Christina; Brammer, Michael; Murphy, Declan G; Rubia, Katya

2014-08-30

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) are often comorbid and share cognitive abnormalities in temporal foresight. A key question is whether shared cognitive phenotypes are based on common or different underlying pathophysiologies and whether comorbid patients have additive neurofunctional deficits, resemble one of the disorders or have a different pathophysiology. We compared age- and IQ-matched boys with non-comorbid ADHD (18), non-comorbid ASD (15), comorbid ADHD and ASD (13) and healthy controls (18) using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) during a temporal discounting task. Only the ASD and the comorbid groups discounted delayed rewards more steeply. The fMRI data showed both shared and disorder-specific abnormalities in the three groups relative to controls in their brain-behaviour associations. The comorbid group showed both unique and more severe brain-discounting associations than controls and the non-comorbid patient groups in temporal discounting areas of ventromedial and lateral prefrontal cortex, ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, suggesting that comorbidity is neither an endophenocopy of the two pure disorders nor an additive pathology. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Model of load distribution for earth observation satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Shumin; Du, Min; Li, Wei

2017-03-01

For the system of multiple types of EOS (Earth Observing Satellites), it is a vital issue to assure that each type of payloads carried by the group of EOS can be used efficiently and reasonably for in astronautics fields. Currently, most of researches on configuration of satellite and payloads focus on the scheduling for launched satellites. However, the assignments of payloads for un-launched satellites are bit researched, which are the same crucial as the scheduling of tasks. Moreover, the current models of satellite resources scheduling lack of more general characteristics. Referring the idea about roles-based access control (RBAC) of information system, this paper brings forward a model based on role-mining of RBAC to improve the generality and foresight of the method of assignments of satellite-payload. By this way, the assignment of satellite-payload can be mapped onto the problem of role-mining. A novel method will be introduced, based on the idea of biclique-combination in graph theory and evolutionary algorithm in intelligence computing, to address the role-mining problem of satellite-payload assignments. The simulation experiments are performed to verify the novel method. Finally, the work of this paper is concluded.

Health communication cards as a tool for behaviour change.

PubMed

Matteson, Carrie L; Merth, Thomas D N; Finegood, Diane T

2014-01-01

Individuals seeking healthcare treatment in the context of obesity often experience difficulty engaging in discussions around their health and face challenges finding consensus with practitioners on care plans that best suit their lives. The complex set of biological, social, and environmental variables that have contributed to the higher prevalence of obesity are well illustrated in the foresight obesity system map. Effectively understanding and addressing key variables for each individual has proven to be difficult, with clinicians facing barriers and limited resources to help address patients' unique needs. However, productive discussions inspired by patient centered care may be particularly effective in promoting behaviour change. Tools based on systems science that facilitate patient centered care and help identify behaviour change priorities have not been developed to help treat adult obesity. This project created and pilot tested a card based clinical communication tool designed to help facilitate conversations with individuals engaged in health behaviour change. The health communication cards were designed to help direct conversation between patients and healthcare providers toward issues relevant to the individual. Use of the cards to facilitate patient driven conversations in clinical care may help to streamline conversations, set realistic care plan goals, and improve long term rates of compliance.

Evaluating the Impacts of Real-Time Pricing on the Cost and Value of Wind Generation

DOE PAGES

Siohansi, Ramteen

2010-05-01

One of the costs associated with integrating wind generation into a power system is the cost of redispatching the system in real-time due to day-ahead wind resource forecast errors. One possible way of reducing these redispatch costs is to introduce demand response in the form of real-time pricing (RTP), which could allow electricity demand to respond to actual real-time wind resource availability using price signals. A day-ahead unit commitment model with day-ahead wind forecasts and a real-time dispatch model with actual wind resource availability is used to estimate system operations in a high wind penetration scenario. System operations are comparedmore » to a perfect foresight benchmark, in which actual wind resource availability is known day-ahead. The results show that wind integration costs with fixed demands can be high, both due to real-time redispatch costs and lost load. It is demonstrated that introducing RTP can reduce redispatch costs and eliminate loss of load events. Finally, social surplus with wind generation and RTP is compared to a system with neither and the results demonstrate that introducing wind and RTP into a market can result in superadditive surplus gains.« less

2020 Foresight Forging the Future of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chrzanowski, P.

2000-01-01

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) of 2020 will look much different from the LLNL of today and vastly different from how it looked twenty years ago. We, the members of the Long-Range Strategy Project, envision a Laboratory not defined by one program--nuclear weapons research--but by several core programs related to or synergistic with LLNL's national security mission. We expect the Laboratory to be fully engaged with sponsors and the local community and closely partnering with other research and development (R&D) organizations and academia. Unclassified work will be a vital part of the Laboratory of 2020 and will visibly demonstratemore » LLNL's international science and technology strengths. We firmly believe that there will be a critical and continuing role for the Laboratory. As a dynamic and versatile multipurpose laboratory with a national security focus, LLNL will be applying its capabilities in science and technology to meet the needs of the nation in the 21st century. With strategic investments in science, outstanding technical capabilities, and effective relationships, the Laboratory will, we believe, continue to play a key role in securing the nation's future.« less

Leo Szilard In Physics and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garwin, Richard

2014-03-01

The excellent biography by William Lanouette, ``Genius in the Shadows,'' tells it the way it was, incredible though it may seem. The 1972 ``Collected Works of Leo Szilard: Scientific Papers'' Bernard T. Feld and Getrude W. Szilard, Editors, gives the source material both published and unpublished. Szilard's path-breaking but initially little-noticed 1929 paper, ``On the Decrease of Entropy in a Thermodynamic System by the Intervention of Intelligent Beings'' spawned much subsequent research. It connected what we now call a bit of information with a quantity k ln 2 of entropy, and showed that the process of acquiring, exploiting, and resetting this information in a one-molecule engine must dissipate at least kT ln 2 of energy at temperature T. His 1925 paper, ``On the Extension of Phenomenological Thermodynamics to Fluctuation Phenomena,'' showed that fluctuations were consistent with and predicted from equilibrium thermodynamics and did not depend on atomistic theories. His work on physics and technology, demonstrated an astonishing range of interest, ingenuity, foresight, and practical sense. I illustrate this with several of his fundamental contributions nuclear physics, to the neutron chain reaction and to nuclear reactors, and also to electromagnetic pumping of liquid metals.

Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: pathways from anticipation to action.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Black, P F; Ward, M P

2015-07-01

Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these changes is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipate drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs - using transparent and repeatable methods - based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocation for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration of these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness.

[The 2010 curriculum of the faculty of medicine at the National University of Mexico].

PubMed

Sánchez-Mendiola, Melchor; Durante-Montiel, Irene; Morales-López, Sara; Lozano-Sánchez, Rogelio; Martínez-González, Adrián; Graue Wiechers, Enrique

2011-01-01

The 2010 undergraduate medical degree curriculum at the faculty of medicine of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM) constitutes an important curricular reform of medical education in our country. It is the result of an institutional reflective process and academic dialog, which culminated in its approval by UNAM’s Academic Council for the Biology, Chemistry, and Health Sciences areas on February 2nd, 2010. Some distinguishing characteristics of the new academic curriculum are: organization by courses with a focus on outcome competencies; three curricular axes that link three knowledge areas; four educational phases with achievement profiles; new courses (biomedical informatics, basic-clinical and clinical-basic integration, among others); and core curriculum. The aforementioned curriculum was decided within a framework of effective teaching strategies, competency oriented learning assessment methods, restructuring of the training of teaching staff, and establishment of a curriculum committee follow-up and evaluation of the program. Curricular change in medical education is a complex process through which the institution can achieve its mission and vision. This change process faces challenges and opportunities, and requires strategic planning with long-term foresight to guarantee a successful dynamic transition for students, teachers, and for the institution itself.

A practitioner's view on managing change.

PubMed

Buckley, D S

1999-01-01

Change will take place whether an organization plans for it or not. Change can be helpful or harmful to an individual and an organization. One can cause change, accept change, reject or fight change, or try to ignore change. The outcome from all of these actions is likely to be different. Properly managed change can benefit the individual and the organization. Dr. Atchison has provided the theory of intangible and tangible elements of an organization, examples of how two organizations developed strategies for change, and how one can measure influences in the process of motivating individuals. These theories can come alive in an organization and bring forth positive results. Changes will continue to occur at a much more rapid pace in the healthcare industry, and many internal changes will be caused by forthcoming changes in the external environment made by regulatory agencies. The voluntary nature of our healthcare industry affords our leaders the opportunity to use vision and foresight to cause and manage change for the continued improvement and further development in the delivery of healthcare. If we fail to accept this challenge and opportunity, we may only have a chance to react to the change imposed on the healthcare industry.

A Michelson Interferometer for Electron Cyclotron Emission Measurements on EAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yong; Stefan, Schmuck; Zhao, Hailin; John, Fessey; Paul, Trimble; Liu, Xiang; Zhu, Zeying; Zang, Qing; Hu, Liqun

2016-12-01

A Michelson interferometer, on loan from EFDA-JET (Culham, United Kingdom) has recently been commissioned on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST, ASIPP, Hefei, China). Following a successful in-situ absolute calibration the instrument is able to measure the electron cyclotron emission (ECE) spectrum, from 80 GHz to 350 GHz in extraordinary mode (X-mode) polarization, with high accuracy. This allows the independent determination of the electron temperature profile from observation of the second harmonic ECE and the possible identification of non-Maxwellian features by comparing higher harmonic emission with numerical simulations. The in-situ calibration results are presented together with the initial measured temperature profiles. These measurements are then discussed and compared with other independent temperature profile measurements. This paper also describes the main hardware features of the diagnostic and the associated commissioning test results. supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11405211, 11275233), and the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China (Nos. 2013GB106002, 2015GB101000), and the RCUK Energy Programme (No. EP/I501045), partly supported by the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program in the Field of Plasma Physics (NSFC: No. 11261140328)

Function of circle of Willis

PubMed Central

Vrselja, Zvonimir; Brkic, Hrvoje; Mrdenovic, Stefan; Radic, Radivoje; Curic, Goran

2014-01-01

Nearly 400 years ago, Thomas Willis described the arterial ring at the base of the brain (the circle of Willis, CW) and recognized it as a compensatory system in the case of arterial occlusion. This theory is still accepted. We present several arguments that via negativa should discard the compensatory theory. (1) Current theory is anthropocentric; it ignores other species and their analog structures. (2) Arterial pathologies are diseases of old age, appearing after gene propagation. (3) According to the current theory, evolution has foresight. (4) Its commonness among animals indicates that it is probably a convergent evolutionary structure. (5) It was observed that communicating arteries are too small for effective blood flow, and (6) missing or hypoplastic in the majority of the population. We infer that CW, under physiologic conditions, serves as a passive pressure dissipating system; without considerable blood flow, pressure is transferred from the high to low pressure end, the latter being another arterial component of CW. Pressure gradient exists because pulse wave and blood flow arrive into the skull through different cerebral arteries asynchronously, due to arterial tree asymmetry. Therefore, CW and its communicating arteries protect cerebral artery and blood–brain barrier from hemodynamic stress. PMID:24473483

Effects of stochastic field lines on the pressure driven MHD instabilities in the Large Helical Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohdachi, Satoshi; Watanabe, Kiyomasa; Sakakibara, Satoru; Suzuki, Yasuhiro; Tsuchiya, Hayato; Ming, Tingfeng; Du, Xiaodi; LHD Expriment Group Team

2014-10-01

In the Large Helical Device (LHD), the plasma is surrounded by the so-called magnetic stochastic region, where the Kolmogorov length of the magnetic field lines is very short, from several tens of meters and to thousands meters. Finite pressure gradient are formed in this region and MHD instabilities localized in this region is observed since the edge region of the LHD is always unstable against the pressure driven mode. Therefore, the saturation level of the instabilities is the key issue in order to evaluate the risk of this kind of MHD instabilities. The saturation level depends on the pressure gradient and on the magnetic Reynolds number; there results are similar to the MHD mode in the closed magnetic surface region. The saturation level in the stochastic region is affected also by the stocasticity itself. Parameter dependence of the saturation level of the MHD activities in the region is discussed in detail. It is supported by NIFS budget code ULPP021, 028 and is also partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 26249144, by the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program NSFC: No. 11261140328.

Learning from history: The Glasgow Airport terrorist attack.

PubMed

Crichton, Gillies

Glasgow Airport was the target of a terrorist attack on 30th June, 2007. Many people within Scotland had come to believe that Scotland was immune from terrorism. This perception was in large part informed by Scotland's experience during the protracted Troubles in Northern Ireland, during which the Provisional Irish Republican Army's mainland bombing campaign focused on targets in England, sparing both Scotland and Wales. While Glasgow Airport did not expect such an attack to take place, meticulous planning, organising and testing of plans had taken place to mitigate the unlikely event of such an attack. The attack stands up as a shining example of robust business continuity management, where the airport reopened for business as usual in less than 24 hours from the time of the attack. Little is known about how the airport handled the situation in conjunction with other responding agencies as people tend to want to focus on high-profile disasters only. Yet countless such incidents are happening worldwide on a daily basis, in which there are excellent learning opportunities, and, taken in the spirit of converting hindsight into foresight, the likelihood of similar incidents could potentially be reduced in the future.

The problems and possibilities in regulating technological frontiers: the politics of the new anxiety?

PubMed

Morgan, Derek

2007-08-01

The revolution in science, biotechnology and medicine of the past 30 years demands a revisitation of old institutional forms and responses, including those of law itself. Scientific citizenship requires that law develop a moral vision and vocabulary so that we shape the moral dimensions of the emergent bioeconomy. Chief among those in the field of biotechnology are technologies of human reproductive cloning, therapeutic cloning and stem cell research using human embryos. Where there are deep pluralist divisions is in relation to therapeutic cloning and embryonic stem cell research. Regulatory flexibility may be opportune in delimiting the extent to which government need stray into this realm of "moral politics". As Brownsword has written, an important developmental vector is what has become known in administrative and public law literature as the concept of "smart regulation". This concept is examined and an attempt to apply it to these fields is made. The enlarged nature of human action -- enlarged in magnitude, reach and novelty -- raises moral issues beyond interpersonal ethics and requires reflection; responsibility is centre stage and calls for lengthened foresight -- what has been called a "scientific futurology". This is also examined.

Robotic Surgery Readiness (RSR): A Prospective Randomized Skills Decay Recognition and Prevention Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-2-0030 TITLE: Robotic Surgery Readiness (RSR): A Prospective Randomized Skills Decay Recognition and Prevention Study...20164. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Robotic Surgery Readiness (RSR): A Prospective Randomized Skills Decay 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER R ognition and Prevention Study...be recruited and many have completed the proficiency phase of this project and will be moving on to AIM 1. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Robotic Surgery

Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

2015-01-01

The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

Analysis of Teaching Materials Developed by Prospective Mathematics Teachers and Their Views on Material Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koparan, Timur

2017-01-01

This study aimed at exploring the quality of teaching materials developed by prospective mathematics teachers and their viewpoints on developing teaching materials. It was carried out with 170 prospective teachers from 4 classes in the Fall Semester of 2014-2015 Academic Year. During the first 8 weeks of the 14-week-long study, the theoretical…

An Analysis of Prospective Chemistry Teachers' Cognitive Structures through Flow Map Method: The Subject of Oxidation and Reduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Temel, Senar

2016-01-01

This study aims to analyse prospective chemistry teachers' cognitive structures related to the subject of oxidation and reduction through a flow map method. Purposeful sampling method was employed in this study, and 8 prospective chemistry teachers from a group of students who had taken general chemistry and analytical chemistry courses were…

Development of Metacognitive Skills: Designing Problem-Based Experiment with Prospective Science Teachers in Biology Laboratory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denis Çeliker, Huriye

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of designing problem-based experiments (DPBE) on the level of metacognitive skills of prospective science teachers. For this purpose, pre test-post test design, without control group, was used in the research. The research group of the study comprised 113 second-grade prospective science…

The Study of Validity and Reliability of the Perceived Value Scale of Prospective Teachers in Terms of Teaching Profession

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demir, Engin; Budak, Yusuf; Demir, Cennet Gologlu

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop "Perceived Value Scale in regard to Teaching Profession of Prospective Teachers." The validity and reliability analysis of the scale, developed for prospective elementary school teachers, was performed. In order to determine the values of the teaching profession, first of all, the related literature…

Prospective Elementary School Teacher's Ways of Internet Use while Preparing Their Projects and Homeworks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ersoy, Ali; Aktay, Sayim

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the level of internet use by prospective elementary school teachers in preparation of projects and assignments. The findings of the study indicated that internet use of prospective teachers is at the average level and gender is not a significant variable. Moreover, personal internet access and frequency of…

Prospective High School Physics Teachers' Beliefs about Teaching Practices: From Traditionalist to Constructivist

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demirci, Neset

2015-01-01

The main aim of this study was to determine the teaching practices of prospective high school physics teachers with respect to their preference for teaching as a traditionalist or as a constructivist. To study the beliefs of prospective high school physics teachers on this subject, firstly, the Teacher Belief Survey was administered to 135…

A single dose of cocaine enhances prospective memory performance.

PubMed

Hutten, Nadia Rpw; Kuypers, Kim Pc; van Wel, Janelle Hp; Theunissen, Eef L; Toennes, Stefan W; Verkes, Robbert-Jan; Ramaekers, Johannes G

2018-06-01

Prospective memory is the ability to recall intended actions or events at the right time or in the right context. While cannabis is known to impair prospective memory, the acute effect of cocaine is unknown. In addition, it is not clear whether changes in prospective memory represent specific alterations in memory processing or result from more general effects on cognition that spread across multiple domains such as arousal and attention. The main objective of the study was, therefore, to determine whether drug-induced changes in prospective memory are memory specific or associated with more general drug-induced changes in attention and arousal. A placebo-controlled, three-way, cross-over study including 15 regular poly-drug users was set up to test the influence of oral cocaine (300 mg) and vaporised cannabis (300+150 'booster' µg/kg bodyweight) on an event-based prospective memory task. Attentional performance was assessed using a divided attention task and subjective arousal was assessed with the Profile of Mood States questionnaire. Results showed that cocaine enhanced prospective memory, attention and arousal. Mean performance of prospective memory and attention, as well as levels of arousal were lowest during treatment with cannabis as compared with placebo and cocaine as evinced by a significantly increased trend across treatment conditions. Prospective memory performance was only weakly positively associated to measures of attention and arousal. Together, these results indicate that cocaine enhancement of prospective memory performance cannot be fully explained by parallel changes in arousal and attention levels, and is likely to represent a direct change in the neural network underlying prospective memory.

Prospective Elemantary Science Teachers' Epistemological Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macaroglu Akgul, Esra; Oztuna Kaplan, Aysun

2009-01-01

This research study examined "prospective elementary science teachers' epistemological beliefs". Forty-nine prospective elementary science teachers participated into research. The research was designed in both quantitative and qualitative manner, within the context of "Special Methods in Science Teaching I" course.…

75 FR 29772 - Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-27

... (c)(6). Grant applications for the Recovery Act 2009 Limited Competition: Prospect Studies--Building... on: Recovery Act 2009 Limited Competition: Prospect Studies--Building New Clinical Infrastructure for...

Childhood emotional maltreatment as a robust predictor of suicidal ideation: A multi-wave, prospective investigation

PubMed Central

Miller, Adam Bryant; Jenness, Jessica L.; Oppenheimer, Caroline W.; Barrocas Gottleib, Andrea L.; Young, Jami F.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

2016-01-01

Despite literature suggesting a relationship between child maltreatment and suicidal ideation, few studies have examined the prospective course of this relationship. The current study examined this relationship in a sample of 682 community youth who were followed over the course of 3 years. Repeated measures of suicidal ideation, emotional maltreatment, and depressive symptom severity were examined in multi-wave path analysis models. Overall, results suggest that emotional maltreatment over time contributes uniquely to the prospective prediction of suicidal ideation, even when controlling for age, previous suicidal ideation, biological sex, and depression symptom severity. Unlike previous studies that have only measured emotional maltreatment at one-time point, the current study demonstrates that emotional maltreatment contributes unique risk to suicidal ideation prospectively among youth. Results speak to the importance of examining emotional maltreatment and suicidal ideation within prospective models of risk and suggest that emotional maltreatment is a robust predictor of suicidal ideation, over and above history of suicidal ideation and depression. PMID:27032784

Social Capital and Health: A Review of Prospective Multilevel Studies

PubMed Central

Murayama, Hiroshi; Fujiwara, Yoshinori; Kawachi, Ichiro

2012-01-01

Background This article presents an overview of the concept of social capital, reviews prospective multilevel analytic studies of the association between social capital and health, and discusses intervention strategies that enhance social capital. Methods We conducted a systematic search of published peer-reviewed literature on the PubMed database and categorized studies according to health outcome. Results We identified 13 articles that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the review. In general, both individual social capital and area/workplace social capital had positive effects on health outcomes, regardless of study design, setting, follow-up period, or type of health outcome. Prospective studies that used a multilevel approach were mainly conducted in Western countries. Although we identified some cross-sectional multilevel studies that were conducted in Asian countries, including Japan, no prospective studies have been conducted in Asia. Conclusions Prospective evidence from multilevel analytic studies of the effect of social capital on health is very limited at present. If epidemiologic findings on the association between social capital and health are to be put to practical use, we must gather additional evidence and explore the feasibility of interventions that build social capital as a means of promoting health. PMID:22447212

Social capital and health: a review of prospective multilevel studies.

PubMed

Murayama, Hiroshi; Fujiwara, Yoshinori; Kawachi, Ichiro

2012-01-01

This article presents an overview of the concept of social capital, reviews prospective multilevel analytic studies of the association between social capital and health, and discusses intervention strategies that enhance social capital. We conducted a systematic search of published peer-reviewed literature on the PubMed database and categorized studies according to health outcome. We identified 13 articles that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the review. In general, both individual social capital and area/workplace social capital had positive effects on health outcomes, regardless of study design, setting, follow-up period, or type of health outcome. Prospective studies that used a multilevel approach were mainly conducted in Western countries. Although we identified some cross-sectional multilevel studies that were conducted in Asian countries, including Japan, no prospective studies have been conducted in Asia. Prospective evidence from multilevel analytic studies of the effect of social capital on health is very limited at present. If epidemiologic findings on the association between social capital and health are to be put to practical use, we must gather additional evidence and explore the feasibility of interventions that build social capital as a means of promoting health.

The Effects of Age and Cue-Action Reminders on Event-Based Prospective Memory Performance in Preschoolers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kliegel, Matthias; Jager, Theodor

2007-01-01

The present study investigated event-based prospective memory in five age groups of preschoolers (i.e., 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year-olds). Applying a laboratory-controlled prospective memory procedure, the data showed that event-based prospective memory performance improves across the preschool years, at least between 3 and 6 years of age. However,…

Conducting Science Fair Activities: Reflections of the Prospective Science Teachers on Their Expectations, Opinions, and Suggestions Regarding Science Fairs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durmaz, Hüsnüye; Oguzhan Dinçer, Emrah; Osmanoglu, Ashhan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the reflections of the prospective science teachers on their expectations, opinions, and suggestions towards science fairs. The study was conducted with 34 prospective science teachers. All participants had education in junior class of Science Teaching Program of a university located in western part of Turkey in…

The Whole Is Greater than the Sum of the Parts: The Effects of an Antenatal Orientation Interviews Training for Prospective Parents Postnatal Depression Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulut, Pinar; Barut, Yasar

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine an antenatal orientation interviews training for prospective parents' postnatal depression levels. A quasi-experimental study carried out with 26 (12 experimental, 14 control) prospective mother and father. Participants completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale one week before the intervention and 12…

Think Tank on Metabolomics and Prospective Cohorts: How to Leverage Resources

Cancer.gov

This Think Tank identified resources that can be used collaboratively across prospective cohorts; developed strategies to leverage resources for advancing the use of metabolomics in prospective cohort studies; identified the best strategies for performing analyses using metabolomics data across multiple studies; and, established a collaborative group that will identify and tackle research projects that cannot be effectively investigated by one independent group.

Pre-K-8 Prospective Teachers' Understanding of Fractions: An Extension of Fractions Schemes and Operations Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lovin, LouAnn H.; Stevens, Alexis L.; Siegfried, John; Wilkins, Jesse L. M.; Norton, Anderson

2018-01-01

In an effort to expand our knowledge base pertaining to pre-K-8 prospective teachers' understanding of fractions, the present study was designed to extend the work on fractions schemes and operations to this population. One purpose of our study was to validate the fractions schemes and operations hierarchy with the pre-K-8 prospective teacher…

Teaching of evolution in public schools: A cross-cultural examination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Joshua M.

The current study sought to examine how the cultural settings of Colorado, United States, and Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany, influenced perspectives, understandings, and acceptance of college students who want to become teachers (i.e., prospective teachers) in regard to the theory of evolution, creationism, and intelligent design with both quantitative and qualitative components. The quantitative sample for the study consisted of 221 German prospective teachers from Baden-Wurttemberg and 231 United States prospective teachers from Colorado. The quantitative component consisted of a 42-item survey with both Likert and true/false items to examine how (1) country of origin, (2) religious participation, and (3) educational background influence students' views and understandings of the theory of evolution and alternative conceptions. Additionally, in a Likert 6-item motivated reasoning task (a theoretical construct), prospective teachers were asked to read and critique arguments supporting and opposing the theory of evolution; differences in how students critiqued arguments were hypothesized to demonstrate biases. For a separate sample from the same locations (8 German and 11 United States students), a qualitative component examined prospective teachers' positions on teaching the theory of evolution in public schools. Prospective teachers were asked to provide support for their position, anticipate opposing arguments, and implications that both positions would have for students. Lastly, prospective teachers were also asked to explain and define the theory of evolution. The current study aided in examining how teachers' perspectives, understandings, and acceptance impacted what was taught in the science classroom. The researcher found that country of origin, religious behavior, and educational background predicted prospective teachers' responses to numerous criterion variables used in the current study. Further, qualitative results expressed major differences between prospective teachers' views regarding the inclusion of evolution or alternative conceptions in public schools, between Colorado and Baden-Wurttemberg. As a potential indicator, findings from the current study may be useful in understanding potential differences between these two countries, in regard to perceptions of the theory of evolution and alternative conceptions. Further, findings from the current study might also inform how these topics might be covered in educational settings with a lowered risk of conflict.

GIS-based rare events logistic regression for mineral prospectivity mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Yihui; Zuo, Renguang

2018-02-01

Mineralization is a special type of singularity event, and can be considered as a rare event, because within a specific study area the number of prospective locations (1s) are considerably fewer than the number of non-prospective locations (0s). In this study, GIS-based rare events logistic regression (RELR) was used to map the mineral prospectivity in the southwestern Fujian Province, China. An odds ratio was used to measure the relative importance of the evidence variables with respect to mineralization. The results suggest that formations, granites, and skarn alterations, followed by faults and aeromagnetic anomaly are the most important indicators for the formation of Fe-related mineralization in the study area. The prediction rate and the area under the curve (AUC) values show that areas with higher probability have a strong spatial relationship with the known mineral deposits. Comparing the results with original logistic regression (OLR) demonstrates that the GIS-based RELR performs better than OLR. The prospectivity map obtained in this study benefits the search for skarn Fe-related mineralization in the study area.

Improve your marketing effectiveness and net income through better prospecting.

PubMed

Gombeski, William R; Kantor, David; Bendycki, Nadine A; Wack, Jeff

2002-01-01

Prospecting is the process of finding customers who are ready to buy and can generate high net income for an organization. Leads for prospects come from three categories of sources: (1) organization-initiated; (2) acquired leads; and (3) marketing activity-initiated leads. Findings from a study of academic medical organizations showed a modest use of effective prospecting by hospitals surveyed and that there are opportunities to increase database marketing efforts. The data suggests that prospecting and its companion concept of qualifying are not fully integrated into many healthcare organization's marketing strategies and tactics.

Dietary guideline adherence index and kidney measures in the framingham heart study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

BACKGROUND: No observational studies have directly considered dietary guidelines when examining the prospective association between dietary intake and kidney measures. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We examined participants who attended examinations 7 (1998-2001) a...

The role of metacognition in prospective memory: anticipated task demands influence attention allocation strategies.

PubMed

Rummel, Jan; Meiser, Thorsten

2013-09-01

The present study investigates how individuals distribute their attentional resources between a prospective memory task and an ongoing task. Therefore, metacognitive expectations about the attentional demands of the prospective-memory task were manipulated while the factual demands were held constant. In Experiments 1a and 1b, we found attentional costs from a prospective-memory task with low factual demands to be significantly reduced when information about the low to-be-expected demands were provided, while prospective-memory performance remained largely unaffected. In Experiment 2, attentional monitoring in a more demanding prospective-memory task also varied with information about the to-be-expected demands (high vs. low) and again there were no equivalent changes in prospective-memory performance. These findings suggest that attention-allocation strategies of prospective memory rely on metacognitive expectations about prospective-memory task demands. Furthermore, the results suggest that attentional monitoring is only functional for prospective memory to the extent to which anticipated task demands reflect objective task demands. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Profile of Prospective Physics Teachers on Assessment Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, R.; Rustaman, N. Y.; Kaniawati, I.

2017-02-01

A study about assessment literacy of prospective Physics teachers was conducted with the involvement of 45 prospective physics teachers. Data collected by using test consisted of seven competencies. The profile of prospective physics teachers on assessment literacy determined in descriptive statistics, in the form of respondent average values. Research finding shows that prospective physics teachers were weak at all competency areas. The average values of the Choosing assessment methods appropriate for instructional decisions is the highest average values and the average values of the communicating assessment results to students, parents, other lay audiences, and other educators is the lowest average values. In depth study to detect the reason underlined the results was still in progress so far, as another aspect was planned to be administered on the next semester.

Cognitive load and task condition in event- and time-based prospective memory: an experimental investigation.

PubMed

Khan, Azizuddin; Sharma, Narendra K; Dixit, Shikha

2008-09-01

Prospective memory is memory for the realization of delayed intention. Researchers distinguish 2 kinds of prospective memory: event- and time-based (G. O. Einstein & M. A. McDaniel, 1990). Taking that distinction into account, the present authors explored participants' comparative performance under event- and time-based tasks. In an experimental study of 80 participants, the authors investigated the roles of cognitive load and task condition in prospective memory. Cognitive load (low vs. high) and task condition (event- vs. time-based task) were the independent variables. Accuracy in prospective memory was the dependent variable. Results showed significant differential effects under event- and time-based tasks. However, the effect of cognitive load was more detrimental in time-based prospective memory. Results also revealed that time monitoring is critical in successful performance of time estimation and so in time-based prospective memory. Similarly, participants' better performance on the event-based prospective memory task showed that they acted on the basis of environment cues. Event-based prospective memory was environmentally cued; time-based prospective memory required self-initiation.

From Present Surveying to Future Prospecting of the Asteroid Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, P. E.; Curtis, S. A.; Rilee, M.; Cheung, C.

2004-03-01

Requirements are analyzed for application of future mission architecture, the Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm (ANTS), to proposed in situ prospecting, of the asteroid belt, the Prospecting Asteroid Mission (PAM) as part of a NASA 2003 Revolutionary Aerospace Concept (RASC) study.

Lacking evidence for performance of implants used for proximal femoral fractures - A systematic review.

PubMed

Nyholm, Anne Marie; Palm, Henrik; Malchau, Henrik; Troelsen, Anders; Gromov, Kirill

2016-03-01

Evaluation of the long-term performance of implants used in trauma surgery relies on post-marked clinical studies since no registry based implant assessment exists. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the evidence of performance of implants currently used for treating proximal femoral fractures (PFF) in Denmark. PubMed was searched for clinical studies on primary PFF with follow-up ≥12 months, reporting implant-related failure and evaluating one of following: DHS, CHS, HipLoc, Gamma3, IMHS, InterTan, PFN, PFNA or PTN. English language and publication date after 1st of January 1990. All studies were evidence level II or III. 30 publications for SHS were found: 13 of CHS, 15 of DHS and 2 of HipLoc. In total CHS was evaluated in 1110 patients (900 prospectively), DHS in 2486 (567 prospectively) and HipLoc in 251 (all prospectively). Fifty-four publications for nails were found: 13 of Gamma3, 7 of IMHS, 5 of InterTan, 10 of PFN, 24 of PFNA and 0 of PTN. In total Gamma3 was evaluated in 1088 patients (829 prospectively), IMHS in 1543 (210 prospectively), InterTan in 595 (585 prospectively), PFN in 716 (557 prospectively), PFNA in 1762 (1018 prospectively) and PTN in 0. The clinical evidence behind the current implants used for proximal femoral fractures is weak considering the number of implants used worldwide. Sporadic evaluation is not sufficient to identify long term problems. A systematic post market surveillance of implants used for fracture treatment, preferable by a national register, is necessary in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methylphenidate and Atomoxetine-Responsive Prefrontal Cortical Genetic Overlaps in "Impulsive" SHR/NCrl and Wistar Rats.

PubMed

Dela Peña, Ike; Dela Peña, Irene Joy; de la Peña, June Bryan; Kim, Hee Jin; Shin, Chan Young; Han, Doug Hyun; Kim, Bung-Nyun; Ryu, Jong Hoon; Cheong, Jae Hoon

2017-09-01

Impulsivity, the predisposition to act prematurely without foresight, is associated with a number of neuropsychiatric disorders, including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Identifying genetic underpinnings of impulsive behavior may help decipher the complex etiology and neurobiological factors of disorders marked by impulsivity. To identify potential genetic factors of impulsivity, we examined common differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) of adolescent SHR/NCrl and Wistar rats, which showed marked decrease in preference for the large but delayed reward, compared with WKY/NCrl rats, in the delay discounting task. Of these DEGs, we examined drug-responsive transcripts whose mRNA levels were altered following treatment (in SHR/NCrl and Wistar rats) with drugs that alleviate impulsivity, namely, the ADHD medications methylphenidate and atomoxetine. Prefrontal cortical genetic overlaps between SHR/NCrl and Wistar rats in comparison with WKY/NCrl included genes associated with transcription (e.g., Btg2, Fos, Nr4a2), synaptic plasticity (e.g., Arc, Homer2), and neuron apoptosis (Grik2, Nmnat1). Treatment with methylphenidate and/or atomoxetine increased choice of the large, delayed reward in SHR/NCrl and Wistar rats and changed, in varying degrees, mRNA levels of Nr4a2, Btg2, and Homer2, genes with previously described roles in neuropsychiatric disorders characterized by impulsivity. While further studies are required, we dissected potential genetic factors that may influence impulsivity by identifying genetic overlaps in the PFC of "impulsive" SHR/NCrl and Wistar rats. Notably, these are also drug-responsive transcripts which may be studied further as biomarkers to predict response to ADHD drugs, and as potential targets for the development of treatments to improve impulsivity.

EBIT spectroscopy of highly charged heavy ions relevant to hot plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Nobuyuki

2013-05-01

An electron beam ion trap (EBIT) is a versatile device for studying highly charged ions. We have been using two types of EBITs for the spectroscopic studies of highly charged ions. One is a high-energy device called the Tokyo-EBIT, and another is a compact low-energy device called CoBIT. Complementary use of them enables us to obtain spectroscopic data for ions over a wide charge-state range interacting with electrons over a wide energy range. In this talk, we present EBIT spectra of highly charged ions for tungsten, iron, bismuth, etc., which are relevant to hot plasmas. Tungsten is considered to be the main impurity in the ITER (the next generation nuclear fusion reactor) plasma, and thus its emission lines are important for diagnosing and controlling the ITER plasma. We have observed many previously unreported lines to supply the lack of spectroscopic data of tungsten ions. Iron is one of the main components of the solar corona, and its spectra are used to diagnose temperature, density, etc. The diagnostics is usually done by comparing observed spectra with model calculations. An EBIT can provide spectra under a well-defined condition; they are thus useful to test the model calculations. Laser-produced bismuth plasma is one of the candidates for a soft x-ray source in the water window region. An EBIT has a narrow charge state distribution; it is thus useful to disentangle the spectra of laser-produced plasma containing ions with a wide charge-state range. Performed with the support and under the auspices of the NIFS Collaboration Research program (NIFS09KOAJ003) and JSPS KAKENHI Number 23246165, and partly supported by the JSPS-NRF-NSFC A3 Foresight Program in the field of Plasma Physics.

A validation method for near-infrared spectroscopy based tissue oximeters for cerebral and somatic tissue oxygen saturation measurements.

PubMed

Benni, Paul B; MacLeod, David; Ikeda, Keita; Lin, Hung-Mo

2018-04-01

We describe the validation methodology for the NIRS based FORE-SIGHT ELITE ® (CAS Medical Systems, Inc., Branford, CT, USA) tissue oximeter for cerebral and somatic tissue oxygen saturation (StO 2 ) measurements for adult subjects submitted to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to obtain clearance for clinical use. This validation methodology evolved from a history of NIRS validations in the literature and FDA recommended use of Deming regression and bootstrapping statistical validation methods. For cerebral validation, forehead cerebral StO 2 measurements were compared to a weighted 70:30 reference (REF CX B ) of co-oximeter internal jugular venous and arterial blood saturation of healthy adult subjects during a controlled hypoxia sequence, with a sensor placed on the forehead. For somatic validation, somatic StO 2 measurements were compared to a weighted 70:30 reference (REF CX S ) of co-oximetry central venous and arterial saturation values following a similar protocol, with sensors place on the flank, quadriceps muscle, and calf muscle. With informed consent, 25 subjects successfully completed the cerebral validation study. The bias and precision (1 SD) of cerebral StO 2 compared to REF CX B was -0.14 ± 3.07%. With informed consent, 24 subjects successfully completed the somatic validation study. The bias and precision of somatic StO 2 compared to REF CX S was 0.04 ± 4.22% from the average of flank, quadriceps, and calf StO 2 measurements to best represent the global whole body REF CX S . The NIRS validation methods presented potentially provide a reliable means to test NIRS monitors and qualify them for clinical use.

Menstrual Cycle Maintenance and Quality of Life After Breast Cancer Treatment: A Prospective Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-10-01

quality of life of these young patients may be compromised by premature menopause with symptoms such as hot flashes, sleep disturbances, decreased libido, and vagina dryness. Very little is known about the incidence, onset, time course, and symptomatology of premature menopause induced by breast cancer therapy and virtually nothing is known about its impact on the young survivor’s quality of life . No prospective study heretofore exists. A comprehensive analysis on a large prospective study cohort as proposed herein will

Parenting styles and body mass index: a systematic review of prospective studies among children.

PubMed

Sokol, R L; Qin, B; Poti, J M

2017-03-01

Parenting style may be an important determinant of an individual's future weight status. However, reviews that evaluate the relationship between parenting style and weight-related outcomes have not focused on prospective studies. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and PsychInfo for studies published between 1995 and 2016 that evaluated the prospective relationship between parenting style experienced in childhood and subsequent weight outcomes. We identified 11 prospective cohort studies. Among the eight studies that categorized parenting style into distinct groups (i.e. authoritative, authoritarian, permissive and neglectful), five provided evidence that authoritative parenting was associated with lower body mass index gains. Among the six highest quality studies, four suggested a protective role of authoritative parenting style against adverse weight-related outcomes. However, only one study controlled for a comprehensive set of confounders, and the small number of studies conducted within certain age groups precluded our ability to ascertain critical periods when parenting style is most strongly related to child weight. The present literature supports the idea that authoritative parenting may be protective against later overweight and obesity, although findings are mixed. More prospective cohort studies of longer durations, with more sophisticated methods that examine age-varying relationships, and that control for a comprehensive set of confounders, are needed. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Parenting styles and body mass index: A systematic review of prospective studies among children

PubMed Central

Sokol, Rebeccah L; Qin, Bo; Poti, Jennifer M

2017-01-01

Background Parenting style may be an important determinant of an individual's future weight status. However, reviews that evaluate the relationship between parenting style and weight-related outcomes have not focused on prospective studies. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and PsychInfo for studies published between 1995-2016 that evaluated the prospective relationship between parenting style experienced in childhood and subsequent weight outcomes. Results We identified eleven prospective cohort studies. Among the eight studies that categorized parenting style into distinct groups (i.e. authoritative, authoritarian, permissive, and neglectful), five provided evidence that authoritative parenting was associated with lower body mass index gains. Among the six highest quality studies, four suggested a protective role of authoritative parenting style against adverse weight-related outcomes. However, only one study controlled for a comprehensive set of confounders, and the small number of studies conducted within certain age groups precluded our ability to ascertain critical periods when parenting style is most strongly related to child weight. Conclusions The present literature supports the idea that authoritative parenting may be protective against later overweight and obesity, although findings are mixed. More prospective cohort studies of longer durations, with more sophisticated methods that examine age-varying relationships, and that control for a comprehensive set of confounders, are needed. PMID:28086262

Hypothalamo-hypophysial dysfunction after traumatic brain injury in children and adolescents: a preliminary retrospective and prospective study.

PubMed

Einaudi, S; Matarazzo, P; Peretta, P; Grossetti, R; Giordano, F; Altare, F; Bondone, C; Andreo, M; Ivani, G; Genitori, L; de Sanctis, C

2006-05-01

With two study protocols, one retrospective and the other prospective, we evaluated hypothalamo-hypophysial dysfunction (HHD) in paediatric patients treated for traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the neurosurgical or intensive care department at our hospital. The retrospective group comprised 22 patients who had experienced TBI 0.7-7.25 years before the study. The prospective group included 30 patients assessed at TBI (T0), 26 of 30 after 6 months (T6), and 20 of 26 after 12 months (T12). Auxological and hormonal basal parameters of hypothalamo-hypophysial function were evaluated at recall in the retrospective group, and at T0, T6 and T12 in the prospective group. Basal data and standard dynamic tests in selected patients revealed one with precocious puberty, one with total anterior hypopituitarism, one with central hypogonadism, and one with growth hormone (GH) deficiency in the retrospective group; three patients with cerebral salt-wasting syndrome, one with diabetes insipidus and seven with low T3 syndrome at T0 (all transient), one with hypocorticism at T6 confirmed at T12, and one with GH deficiency at T12 in the prospective group. The results of our study show that post-TBI HHD in our paediatric cohort is not uncommon. Of the 48 patients who underwent a complete evaluation (22 retrospective study patients and 26 prospective study patients evaluated at T6) five (10.4%) developed HHD 6 months or more after TBI. HHD was newly diagnosed in one previously normal patient from the prospective group at 12 months after TBI. GH deficiency was the most frequent disorder in our paediatric cohort.

Effect of prospective reimbursement on nursing home costs.

PubMed

Coburn, A F; Fortinsky, R; McGuire, C; McDonald, T P

1993-04-01

This study evaluates the effect of Maine's Medicaid nursing home prospective payment system on nursing home costs and access to care for public patients. The implementation of a facility-specific prospective payment system for nursing homes provided the opportunity for longitudinal study of the effect of that system. Data sources included audited Medicaid nursing home cost reports, quality-of-care data from state facility survey and licensure files, and facility case-mix information from random, stratified samples of homes and residents. Data were obtained for six years (1979-1985) covering the three-year period before and after implementation of the prospective payment system. This study used a pre-post, longitudinal analytical design in which interrupted, time-series regression models were estimated to test the effects of prospective payment and other factors, e.g., facility characteristics, nursing home market factors, facility case mix, and quality of care, on nursing home costs. Prospective payment contributed to an estimated $3.03 decrease in total variable costs in the third year from what would have been expected under the previous retrospective cost-based payment system. Responsiveness to payment system efficiency incentives declined over the study period, however, indicating a growing problem in achieving further cost reductions. Some evidence suggested that cost reductions might have reduced access for public patients. Study findings are consistent with the results of other studies that have demonstrated the effectiveness of prospective payment systems in restraining nursing home costs. Potential policy trade-offs among cost containment, access, and quality assurance deserve further consideration, particularly by researchers and policymakers designing the new generation of case mix-based and other nursing home payment systems.

The Effects of Problem Solving Applications on the Development of Science Process Skills, Logical Thinking Skills and Perception on Problem Solving Ability in the Science Laboratory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seyhan, Hatice Güngör

2015-01-01

This study was conducted with 98 prospective science teachers, who were composed of 50 prospective teachers that had participated in problem-solving applications and 48 prospective teachers who were taught within a more researcher-oriented teaching method in science laboratories. The first aim of this study was to determine the levels of…

Prospective observational studies to assess comparative effectiveness: the ISPOR good research practices task force report.

PubMed

Berger, Marc L; Dreyer, Nancy; Anderson, Fred; Towse, Adrian; Sedrakyan, Art; Normand, Sharon-Lise

2012-01-01

In both the United States and Europe there has been an increased interest in using comparative effectiveness research of interventions to inform health policy decisions. Prospective observational studies will undoubtedly be conducted with increased frequency to assess the comparative effectiveness of different treatments, including as a tool for "coverage with evidence development," "risk-sharing contracting," or key element in a "learning health-care system." The principle alternatives for comparative effectiveness research include retrospective observational studies, prospective observational studies, randomized clinical trials, and naturalistic ("pragmatic") randomized clinical trials. This report details the recommendations of a Good Research Practice Task Force on Prospective Observational Studies for comparative effectiveness research. Key issues discussed include how to decide when to do a prospective observational study in light of its advantages and disadvantages with respect to alternatives, and the report summarizes the challenges and approaches to the appropriate design, analysis, and execution of prospective observational studies to make them most valuable and relevant to health-care decision makers. The task force emphasizes the need for precision and clarity in specifying the key policy questions to be addressed and that studies should be designed with a goal of drawing causal inferences whenever possible. If a study is being performed to support a policy decision, then it should be designed as hypothesis testing-this requires drafting a protocol as if subjects were to be randomized and that investigators clearly state the purpose or main hypotheses, define the treatment groups and outcomes, identify all measured and unmeasured confounders, and specify the primary analyses and required sample size. Separate from analytic and statistical approaches, study design choices may strengthen the ability to address potential biases and confounding in prospective observational studies. The use of inception cohorts, new user designs, multiple comparator groups, matching designs, and assessment of outcomes thought not to be impacted by the therapies being compared are several strategies that should be given strong consideration recognizing that there may be feasibility constraints. The reasoning behind all study design and analytic choices should be transparent and explained in study protocol. Execution of prospective observational studies is as important as their design and analysis in ensuring that results are valuable and relevant, especially capturing the target population of interest, having reasonably complete and nondifferential follow-up. Similar to the concept of the importance of declaring a prespecified hypothesis, we believe that the credibility of many prospective observational studies would be enhanced by their registration on appropriate publicly accessible sites (e.g., clinicaltrials.gov and encepp.eu) in advance of their execution. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of situational conditions on students' views of business ethics.

PubMed

Matsui, Tamao; Kakuyama, Takashi; Tsuzuki, Yukie

2003-12-01

This study investigated undergraduates' responses regarding selected ethical issues facing managers and employees of today's businesses. The focus of the study lies in the influences of two situational variables (organizational roles and prospects) on students' response pattern. Japanese students (306 men and 81 women, M = 20.1 yr., SD = 2.2) imagined that they were managers or operative employees of a middle-sized manufacturing company and that their company had high or low prospects. The response pattern tended to be more ethical for "managers," whereas the response pattern tended to be less ethical for "employees" in a "low prospect" than in a "high prospect" company.

Changes in How Prospective Teachers Anticipate Secondary Students' Answers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Llinares, Salvador; Fernández, Ceneida; Sánchez-Matamoros, Gloria

2016-01-01

This study focuses on how prospective teachers learn about students' mathematical thinking when (1) anticipating secondary students' answers reflecting different characteristics of understanding, and (2) propose new activities in relation to the classification of quadrilaterals. The data were collected from forty-eight prospective secondary school…

Prospective Teachers' Perceptions on Different Aspects of Portfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ok, Ahmet; Erdogan, Mehmet

2010-01-01

This qualitative-case study examined how portfolio and portfolio assessment were perceived by prospective teachers. The participants were 23 prospective teachers from seven different teaching areas from a Turkish university. A semi-structured individual interview was conducted. The interview schedule included 15 open-ended questions. The main…

Preparing Elementary Prospective Teachers to Teach Early Algebra

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hohensee, Charles

2017-01-01

Researchers have argued that integrating early algebra into elementary grades will better prepare students for algebra. However, currently little research exists to guide teacher preparation programs on how to prepare prospective elementary teachers to teach early algebra. This study examines the insights and challenges that prospective teachers…

Prospective Science Teachers' Conceptions about Astronomical Subjects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Küçüközer, Hüseyin

2007-01-01

The main objective of this study was to identify prospective science teachers' conceptions on basic astronomical phenomena. A questionnaire consisting of nine open-ended questions was administered to 327 prospective science teachers. The questionnaire was constructed after extensive review of the literature and took into consideration the reported…

Validation of prospective portion size and latency to eat as measures of reactivity to snack foods.

PubMed

van den Akker, Karolien; Bongers, Peggy; Hanssen, Imke; Jansen, Anita

2017-09-01

In experimental studies that investigate reactivity to the sight and smell of highly palatable snack foods, ad libitum food intake is commonly used as a behavioural outcome measure. However, this measure has several drawbacks. The current study investigated two intake-related measures not yet validated for food cue exposure research involving common snack foods: prospective portion size and latency to eat. We aimed to validate these measures by assessing prospective portion size and eating latencies in female undergraduate students who either underwent snack food exposure or a control exposure. Furthermore, we correlated prospective portion size and latency to eat with commonly used measures of food cue reactivity, i.e., self-reported desire to eat, salivation, and ad libitum food intake. Results showed increases in prospective portion size after food cue exposure but not after control exposure. Latency to eat did not differ between the two conditions. Prospective portion size correlated positively with desire to eat and food intake, and negatively with latency to eat. Latency to eat was also negatively correlated with desire to eat and food intake. It is concluded that the current study provides initial evidence for the prospective portion size task as a valid measure of reactivity to snack foods in a Dutch female and mostly healthy weight student population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.

PubMed

Trepel, Christopher; Fox, Craig R; Poldrack, Russell A

2005-04-01

Most decisions must be made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Economists and psychologists have devoted much attention to modeling decisions made under conditions of risk in which options can be characterized by a known probability distribution over possible outcomes. The descriptive shortcomings of classical economic models motivated the development of prospect theory (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4 (1979) 263-291; A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5 (4) (1992) 297-323) the most successful behavioral model of decision under risk. In the prospect theory, subjective value is modeled by a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains; the impact of probabilities are characterized by a weighting function that overweights low probabilities and underweights moderate to high probabilities. We outline the possible neural bases of the components of prospect theory, surveying evidence from human imaging, lesion, and neuropharmacology studies as well as animal neurophysiology studies. These results provide preliminary suggestions concerning the neural bases of prospect theory that include a broad set of brain regions and neuromodulatory systems. These data suggest that focused studies of decision making in the context of quantitative models may provide substantial leverage towards a fuller understanding of the cognitive neuroscience of decision making.

Childhood Adversities Increase the Risk of Psychosis: A Meta-analysis of Patient-Control, Prospective- and Cross-sectional Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Varese, Filippo; Smeets, Feikje; Drukker, Marjan; Lieverse, Ritsaert; Lataster, Tineke; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Read, John; van Os, Jim; Bentall, Richard P.

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that adverse experiences in childhood are associated with psychosis. To examine the association between childhood adversity and trauma (sexual abuse, physical abuse, emotional/psychological abuse, neglect, parental death, and bullying) and psychosis outcome, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, and Web of Science were searched from January 1980 through November 2011. We included prospective cohort studies, large-scale cross-sectional studies investigating the association between childhood adversity and psychotic symptoms or illness, case-control studies comparing the prevalence of adverse events between psychotic patients and controls using dichotomous or continuous measures, and case-control studies comparing the prevalence of psychotic symptoms between exposed and nonexposed subjects using dichotomous or continuous measures of adversity and psychosis. The analysis included 18 case-control studies (n = 2048 psychotic patients and 1856 nonpsychiatric controls), 10 prospective and quasi-prospective studies (n = 41 803) and 8 population-based cross-sectional studies (n = 35 546). There were significant associations between adversity and psychosis across all research designs, with an overall effect of OR = 2.78 (95% CI = 2.34–3.31). The integration of the case-control studies indicated that patients with psychosis were 2.72 times more likely to have been exposed to childhood adversity than controls (95% CI = 1.90–3.88). The association between childhood adversity and psychosis was also significant in population-based cross-sectional studies (OR = 2.99 [95% CI = 2.12–4.20]) as well as in prospective and quasi-prospective studies (OR = 2.75 [95% CI = 2.17–3.47]). The estimated population attributable risk was 33% (16%–47%). These findings indicate that childhood adversity is strongly associated with increased risk for psychosis. PMID:22461484

The role of rostral prefrontal cortex in prospective memory: a voxel-based lesion study.

PubMed

Volle, Emmanuelle; Gonen-Yaacovi, Gil; Costello, Angela de Lacy; Gilbert, Sam J; Burgess, Paul W

2011-07-01

Patients with lesions in rostral prefrontal cortex (PFC) often experience problems in everyday-life situations requiring multitasking. A key cognitive component that is critical in multitasking situations is prospective memory, defined as the ability to carry out an intended action after a delay period filled with unrelated activity. The few functional imaging studies investigating prospective memory have shown consistent activation in both medial and lateral rostral PFC but also in more posterior prefrontal regions and non-frontal regions. The aim of this study was to determine regions that are necessary for prospective memory performance, using the human lesion approach. We designed an experimental paradigm allowing us to assess time-based (remembering to do something at a particular time) and event-based (remembering to do something in a particular situation) prospective memory, using two types of material, words and pictures. Time estimation tasks and tasks controlling for basic attention, inhibition and multiple instructions processing were also administered. We examined brain-behaviour relationships with a voxelwise lesion method in 45 patients with focal brain lesions and 107 control subjects using this paradigm. The results showed that lesions in the right polar prefrontal region (in Brodmann area 10) were specifically associated with a deficit in time-based prospective memory tasks for both words and pictures. This deficit could not be explained by impairments in basic attention, detection, inhibition or multiple instruction processing, and there was also no deficit in event-based prospective memory conditions. In addition to their prospective memory difficulties, these polar prefrontal patients were significantly impaired in time estimation ability compared to other patients. The same region was found to be involved using both words and pictures, suggesting that right rostral PFC plays a material nonspecific role in prospective memory. This is the first lesion study showing that rostral PFC is crucial for time-based prospective memory. The findings suggest that time-based and event-based prospective memory might be supported at least in part by distinct brain regions. Two particularly plausible explanations for the deficit rest upon a possible role for polar prefrontal structures in supporting in time estimation, and/or in retrieving an intention to act. More broadly, the results are consistent with the view that the deficit of rostral patients in multitasking situations might at least in part be explained by a deficit in prospective memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number: exemplifying a replication framework for mathematics education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Erik; Simpson, Amber

2018-04-01

Replication studies play a critical role in scientific accumulation of knowledge, yet replication studies in mathematics education are rare. In this study, the authors replicated Thanheiser's (Educational Studies in Mathematics 75:241-251, 2010) study of prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number and examined the main claim that most elementary pre-service teachers think about digits incorrectly at least some of the time. Results indicated no statistically significant difference in the distribution of conceptions between the original and replication samples and, moreover, no statistically significant differences in the distribution of sub-conceptions among prospective teachers with the most common conception. These results suggest confidence is warranted both in the generality of the main claim and in the utility of the conceptions framework for describing prospective elementary teachers' conceptions of multidigit number. The report further contributes a framework for replication of mathematics education research adapted from the field of psychology.

Analytical Components of the Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1990-2020, the Second Prospective Study

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The major analytical components of the Second Prospective Study are shown on this page. For other major components of the study, supporting technical reports are available which provide additional technical information.

How Prospective Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Trainees Rank Residency Training Programs.

PubMed

Auriemma, Michael J; Whitehair, Curtis L

2018-03-01

Since the inception of the National Resident Matching Program, multiple studies have investigated the factors applicants consider important to ranking prospective residency programs. However, only 2 previous studies focused on prospective physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) trainees, and the most recent of these studies was published in 1993. It is unknown whether these previous studies are reflective of current prospective PM&R residents. To assess various factors that contribute to prospective PM&R residents' decision making in choosing a residency program and compare these findings with previous studies. An anonymous, voluntary questionnaire. A single PM&R residency program. All applicants to a single PM&R residency program. All applicants to our PM&R residency program were invited to participate in a 44-item, 5-point Likert-based questionnaire. Applicants were asked to rate the importance of various factors as they related to constructing their residency rank list. Means and standard deviations were calculated for items included in the survey. A response rate of 26% was obtained, with the responses of 98 applicants (20%) ultimately analyzed. The highest rated factors included "perceived happiness of current residents," "opportunities for hands-on procedure training," "perceived camaraderie among current residents," "perceived camaraderie among faculty and current residents," "perceived quality of current residents," and "perceived work/life balance among current residents." Although male and female respondents demonstrated similar ranking preferences, an apparent difference was detected between how genders rated the importance of "whether the program projects a favorable environment for women" and "whether the program projects a favorable environment for minorities." As compared with previous PM&R applicants, current prospective trainees seem to place greater importance on skill acquisition over didactic teaching. Prospective PM&R residents highly value subjective perceptions of prospective PM&R training programs and the ability to obtain hands-on procedural experience. Not applicable. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extraneous tissue in surgical pathology: a College of American Pathologists Q-Probes study of 275 laboratories.

PubMed

Gephardt, G N; Zarbo, R J

1996-11-01

To develop a multi-institutional reference database of extraneous tissue (contaminants) in surgical pathology. In 1994, participants in the College of American Pathologists Q-Probes quality improvement program performed prospective and retrospective evaluations of extraneous tissue found in surgical pathology microscopic sections for a period of 4 weeks or until 1000 slides were reviewed in each participating laboratory. Two hundred seventy-five surgical pathology laboratories institutions, predominantly from North America. Extraneous tissue contamination rate for slides in prospective and retrospective reviews; staffing and practice procedures; location of extraneous tissue on slides; type of extraneous tissue (normal, abnormal, nonneoplastic, neoplasm, microorganisms, etc); class of extraneous tissue (slide or block contaminants); source of extraneous tissue (different or same case); origin of extraneous tissue (pathology laboratory, physician's office or operating room); and degree of diagnostic difficulty caused by extraneous tissue. Three hundred twenty-one thousand seven hundred fifty-seven slides were reviewed in the prospective study and 57083 slides in the retrospective study. There was an overall extraneous tissue rate of 0.6% of slides (2074/321757) in the prospective study and 2.9% of slides (1653/57083) in the retrospective study. Of those slides with extraneous tissue, the extraneous tissue was located near diagnostic tissue sections in 59.5% of the slides reviewed prospectively and in 25.3% of slides reviewed retrospectively; deeper sections were performed to evaluate extraneous tissue in 12.2% of prospective cases and in 3.1% of retrospective cases. Of the laboratories, 98% had written guidelines for changing solution in tissue processors, and 64.9% had guidelines for maintaining water baths free of extraneous tissue. A total of 98.9% used lens paper, filter bags, or sponges for processing fragmented and small specimens. Written protocols for documentation of extraneous tissue in surgical pathology reports were established in 6.1% of laboratories, for removal of extraneous tissue from blocks in 5.7%, and for removal of extraneous tissue from microscopic slides in 4.7%. In 24% of laboratories no comment or record was kept to document extraneous tissue. Extraneous tissue consisted of neoplasm in 12.7% of the prospectively reviewed slides and in 6.0% of the retrospectively reviewed slides. For the prospective study, 59.4% of extraneous tissue was classified as slide contaminants, and 28.4% was found to be contaminants within the paraffin block; for the retrospective study, 72.9% was classified as slide contaminants and 15.9% as block contaminants. For the prospective study, 63.2% of extraneous tissue was presumed to be from a different case, and in the retrospective study, 48.5% was presumed to be from a different case. Over 90% of extraneous tissue was thought to originate from the pathology laboratory. The degree of diagnostic difficulty caused by extraneous tissue was judged to be severe in 0.4% of slides in the prospective study and 0.1% of slides in the retrospective study. In the prospective study, it could not be determined whether the tissue in the diagnostic sections was extraneous in 0.6% of slides, and in the retrospective study, it could not be determined whether tissue in the diagnostic sections was extraneous in 0.1%. This study has documented the frequency, type, origin, source, and diagnostic difficulty of extraneous tissue and presents benchmarks of extraneous tissue experienced in the general practice of surgical pathology.

Chocolate consumption and risk of myocardial infarction: a prospective study and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Larsson, Susanna C; Åkesson, Agneta; Gigante, Bruna; Wolk, Alicja

2016-07-01

To examine whether chocolate consumption is associated with a reduced risk of ischaemic heart disease, we used data from a prospective study of Swedish adults and we performed a meta-analysis of available prospective data. The Swedish prospective study included 67 640 women and men from the Cohort of Swedish Men and the Swedish Mammography Cohort who had completed a food-frequency questionnaire and were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Myocardial infarction (MI) cases were ascertained through linkage with the Swedish National Patient and Cause of Death Registers. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched from inception until 4 February 2016 to identify prospective studies on chocolate consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The results from eligible studies were combined using a random-effects model. During follow-up (1998-2010), 4417 MI cases were ascertained in the Swedish study. Chocolate consumption was inversely associated with MI risk. Compared with non-consumers, the multivariable relative risk for those who consumed ≥3-4 servings/week of chocolate was 0.87 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.98; p for trend =0.04). Five prospective studies on chocolate consumption and ischaemic heart disease were identified. Together with the Swedish study, the meta-analysis included six studies with a total of 6851 ischaemic heart disease cases. The overall relative risk for the highest versus lowest category of chocolate consumption was 0.90 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.97), with little heterogeneity among studies (I(2)=24.3%). Chocolate consumption is associated with lower risk of MI and ischaemic heart disease. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

PubMed

Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N

2015-01-01

It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

The Influence of Simulations on Family Engagement--Prospective Early Childhood Educators' Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paz-Albo Prieto, Jesús

2018-01-01

Nurturing experiences in preparation for prospective early childhood educators' work with families during their training are critical for establishing empowering relationships. This article details a qualitative case study of 77 prospective early childhood educators engaged with the Parent, Family and Community Engagement Simulation. An electronic…

Awareness and Ethical Orientation of Alternatively Certified Prospective Teachers to Intention for Whistle Blowing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toker Gokce, Asiye

2013-01-01

This study inquires whistle blowing intentions of alternatively certified prospective teachers, investigating their moral reasoning to blow the whistle. Specifically three hypotheses were tested: Overall ethical awareness of the alternatively certified prospective teachers is high; the participants will identify reasons related to philosophical…

Prospective Elementary Teachers' Development of Fraction Number Sense

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utley, Juliana; Reeder, Stacy

2012-01-01

Can prospective elementary teachers "unlearn" harmful algorithms used with fractions as they are invited to develop fraction number sense? This study examined the development of prospective elementary teachers' fraction number sense during an intermediate (grades 5-8) mathematics methods course. During this course, participants' were involved in a…

Prospective Secondary Mathematics Teachers' Perspectives and Mathematical Knowledge for Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karagöz-Akar, Gülseren

2016-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between prospective secondary mathematics teachers' perspectives and their mathematical knowledge for teaching in action. Data from two prospective teachers' practice-teachings, one in geometry and one in algebra, their lesson plans and self-reflections were analyzed with Teacher Perspectives and Knowledge…

Developing Prospective Teachers' Understanding of Addition and Subtraction with Whole Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roy, George J.

2014-01-01

This study was situated in a semester-long classroom teaching experiment examining prospective teachers' understanding of number concepts and operations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the learning goals, tasks, and tools used to cultivate prospective teachers' understanding of addition and subtraction with whole numbers. Research…

Prospective Turkish Primary Teachers' Views about the Use of Computers in Mathematics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dogan, Mustafa

2012-01-01

The use of computers and technology in mathematics education affects students' learning, achievements, and affective dimensions. This study explores prospective Turkish primary mathematics teachers' views about the use of computers in mathematics education. The sample comprised of 129 fourth-year prospective primary mathematics teachers from two…

Building the Wall Brick by Brick: One Prospective Teacher's Experiences with Mathematics Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoehr, Kathleen Jablon

2017-01-01

Mathematics education researchers have investigated mathematics anxiety in prospective elementary teachers. While many of these studies have focused on the bodily sensations and emotions of mathematics anxiety, particularly those felt in assessment situations, opportunities remain to investigate how prospective elementary teachers interpret their…

The cognitive processes underlying event-based prospective memory in school-age children and young adults: a formal model-based study.

PubMed

Smith, Rebekah E; Bayen, Ute J; Martin, Claudia

2010-01-01

Fifty children 7 years of age (29 girls, 21 boys), 53 children 10 years of age (29 girls, 24 boys), and 36 young adults (19 women, 17 men) performed a computerized event-based prospective memory task. All 3 groups differed significantly in prospective memory performance, with adults showing the best performance and with 7-year-olds showing the poorest performance. We used a formal multinomial process tree model of event-based prospective memory to decompose age differences in cognitive processes that jointly contribute to prospective memory performance. The formal modeling results demonstrate that adults differed significantly from the 7-year-olds and the 10-year-olds on both the prospective component and the retrospective component of the task. The 7-year-olds and the 10-year-olds differed only in the ability to recognize prospective memory target events. The prospective memory task imposed a cost to ongoing activities in all 3 age groups. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of Visual Motion Perception for Prospective Control: Brain and Behavioral Studies in Infants

PubMed Central

Agyei, Seth B.; van der Weel, F. R. (Ruud); van der Meer, Audrey L. H.

2016-01-01

During infancy, smart perceptual mechanisms develop allowing infants to judge time-space motion dynamics more efficiently with age and locomotor experience. This emerging capacity may be vital to enable preparedness for upcoming events and to be able to navigate in a changing environment. Little is known about brain changes that support the development of prospective control and about processes, such as preterm birth, that may compromise it. As a function of perception of visual motion, this paper will describe behavioral and brain studies with young infants investigating the development of visual perception for prospective control. By means of the three visual motion paradigms of occlusion, looming, and optic flow, our research shows the importance of including behavioral data when studying the neural correlates of prospective control. PMID:26903908

Prospective memory in context: Moving through a familiar space.

PubMed

Smith, Rebekah E; Hunt, R Reed; Murray, Amy E

2017-02-01

Successful completion of delayed intentions is a common but important aspect of daily behavior. Such behavior requires not only memory for the intended action but also recognition of the opportunity to perform that action, known collectively as prospective memory. The fact that prospective memory tasks occur in the midst of other activities is captured in laboratory tasks by embedding the prospective memory task in an ongoing activity. In many cases the requirement to perform the prospective memory task results in a reduction in ongoing performance relative to when the ongoing task is performed alone. This is referred to as the cost to the ongoing task and reflects the allocation of attentional resources to the prospective memory task. The current study examined the pattern of cost across the ongoing task when the ongoing task provided contextual information that in turn allowed participants to anticipate when target events would occur within the ongoing task. The availability of contextual information reduced ongoing task response times overall, with an increase in response times closer to the target locations (Experiments 1-3). The fourth study, drawing on the Event Segmentation Theory, provided support for the proposal made by the Preparatory Attentional and Memory Processes theory of prospective memory that decisions about the allocation of attention to the prospective memory task are more likely to be made at points of transition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Single-Incision Multiport/Single Port Laparoscopic Abdominal Surgery (SILAP): A Prospective Multicenter Observational Quality Study.

PubMed

Mantke, Rene; Diener, Markus; Kropf, Siegfried; Otto, Ronny; Manger, Thomas; Vestweber, Boris; Mirow, Lutz; Winde, Günther; Lippert, Hans

2016-09-07

Increasing experience with minimally invasive surgery and the development of new instruments has resulted in a tendency toward reducing the number of abdominal skin incisions. Retrospective and randomized prospective studies could show the feasibility of single-incision surgery without any increased risk to the patient. However, large prospective multicenter observational datasets do not currently exist. This prospective multicenter observational quality study will provide a relevant dataset reflecting the feasibility and safety of single-incision surgery. This study focuses on external validity, clinical relevance, and the patients' perspective. Accordingly, the single-incision multiport/single port laparoscopic abdominal surgery (SILAP) study will supplement the existing evidence, which does not currently allow evidence-based surgical decision making. The SILAP study is an international prospective multicenter observational quality study. Mortality, morbidity, complications during surgery, complications postoperatively, patient characteristics, and technical aspects will be monitored. We expect more than 100 surgical centers to participate with 5000 patients with abdominal single-incision surgery during the study period. Funding was obtained in 2012. Enrollment began on January 01, 2013, and will be completed on December 31, 2018. As of January 2016, 2119 patients have been included, 106 German centers are registered, and 27 centers are very active (>5 patients per year). This prospective multicenter observational quality study will provide a relevant dataset reflecting the feasibility and safety of single-incision surgery. An international enlargement and recruitment of centers outside of Germany is meaningful. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00004594; https://drks-neu.uniklinik-freiburg.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00004594 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6jK6ZVyUs).

Functional analysis of concealment: a novel application of prospect and refuge theory.

PubMed

Singh, Punya; Ellard, Colin G

2012-09-01

According to prospect-refuge theory, humans prefer environments that afford protection from threat (refuge), but also provide large fields of view (prospect). Prospect-refuge theory in the past has traditionally only been applied to humans, but many of the same contingencies governing spatial preference ought to also hold true in animals. The focus of this study was to examine if this phenomena also occurs in animals. Gerbils were placed in an arena containing three dome shaped refuges that varied in prospect-refuge levels. A simulated predator was released during the trial to examine how contextual factors may influence the degree of prospect and refuge preferred. The results indicate a preference for the enclosed refuge at stimulus onset even though this was not reflective of what happened prior to predator release. The results suggest spatial preferences in animals are influenced by prospect-refuge considerations in certain contexts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal changes in the antecedent and early manifest course of bipolar disorder-A narrative review of prospective studies.

PubMed

Pfennig, Andrea; Leopold, Karolina; Ritter, Philipp; Böhme, Anne; Severus, Emanuel; Bauer, Michael

2017-05-01

Prospective study designs ideally allow patients to be followed from the first manifestations of the illness or even from an at-risk stage. It can thus provide data on the predictive value of changes in clinical symptomatology, cognition or further biological markers to broaden our understanding of the etiopathology and symptomatic trajectory of bipolar disorders. The scope of this narrative review is to summarize evidence from prospectively collected data on psychopathological and other clinical and biological changes in the early developmental course of bipolar disorders. The narrative review was based on a literature search conducted in February 2016 within the PubMed library for prospective study data of persons in antecedent and early manifest stages of manifest bipolar disorder published within the last 15 years. A total of 19 prospective studies were included. Regarding psychopathological features; personality, temperament and character traits as well as changes in sleep and circadian rhythm, the evidence suggests that risk factors for the development of bipolar disorder can already be described and should be studied further to understand their interaction, mediation with other factors and timing in the developmental process of bipolar disorder. Apart from the positive family history, childhood anxiety, sleep problems, subthreshold (hypo)manic symptoms and certain character traits/emotionality should be identified and monitored already in clinical practice as their presence likely increases risk of bipolar disorder. Up to date no substantiated evidence was found from prospective studies addressing cognitive features, life events, immunological parameters and morphological central nervous system changes as potential risk factors for bipolar disorder. For an improved understanding of episodic disorders, longitudinal data collection is essential. Since the etiology of bipolar disorders is complex, a number of potential risk factors have been proposed. Prospective studies addressing this spectrum and resilience factors are critical and will be best conducted within multi-site research networks or initiatives.

Self-perceived assessment skill of prospective physics teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, R.; Rustaman, N. Y.; Kaniawati, I.

2018-05-01

Assessment skills are an important component of assessment practice, without adequate assessment skills it is unlikely that teacher assessment practices will produce desired student learning outcomes. This study was conducted to reveal self-perceived assessment skills of prospective physics teachers by using quantitative descriptive analysis, and involving 92 prospective physics teachers who were experiencing teaching practice in junior high school and final project related to assessment. Data was collected by using Self-Perceived Assessment Science Skills Questionnaire consisted of 29 items related seven assessment competencies was developed and used in the study. Internal consistency reliability coefficient for the total scale scores was 0.87 as measured by Cronbach’s alpha. Determination of self-perceived assessment science skills detected from prospective physics teachers was carried out in descriptive statistics, in the form of respondent average values. Research findings show that self-perceived assessment skills of prospective physics teachers was categorized as transition.

An ethnobotanical survey of medicinal plants used in Terai forest of western Nepal

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Nepal Himalayas have been known as a rich source for valuable medicinal plants since Vedic periods. Present work is the documentation of indigenous knowledge on plant utilization as natural remedy by the inhabitants of terai forest in Western Nepal. Methods Study was conducted during 2010–2011 following standard ethnobotanical methods. Data about medicinal uses of plants were collected by questionnaire, personal interview and group discussion with pre identified informants. Voucher specimens were collected with the help of informants, processed into herbarium following standard methods, identified with the help of pertinent floras and taxonomic experts, and submitted in Department of Botany, Butwal Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Nepal for future references. Results During the present study 66 medicinal plant species belonging to 37 families and 60 genera has been documented. These plants were used to treat various diseases and ailments grouped under 11 disease categories, with the highest number of species (41) being used for gastro-intestinal disorders, followed by dermatological disorders (34). In the study area the informants’ consensus about usages of medicinal plants ranges from 0.93 to 0.97 with an average value of 0.94. Herbs (53%) were the primary source of medicine, followed by trees (23%). Curcuma longa (84%) and Azadirachta indica (76%) are the most frequently and popularly used medicinal plant species in the study area. Acacia catechu, Bacopa monnieri, Bombax ceiba, Drymaria diandra, Rauvolfia serpentina, and Tribulus terrestris are threatened species which needs to be conserved for future use. Conclusions The high degree of consensus among the informants suggests that current use and knowledge are still strong, and thus the preservation of today's knowledge shows good foresight in acting before much has been lost. The connections between plant use and conservation are also important ones, especially as the authors note that neither the local inhabitants nor the government is addressing the potential loss of valuable species in this region. PMID:22591592

Adolescents with a childhood experience of parental divorce: a longitudinal study of mental health and adjustment.

PubMed

Størksen, Ingunn; Røysamb, Espen; Moum, Torbjørn; Tambs, Kristian

2005-12-01

**This is a prospective Norwegian study of a group of adolescents with an experience of parental divorce or separation (n=413) and a comparison group without this experience (n=1758). Mean age at T1 was 14.4 years and mean age at T2 was 18.4 years. Parental divorce was prospectively associated with a relative change in anxiety and depression, subjective well-being, self-esteem, and school problems. Considering boys separately, parental divorce was prospectively associated only with school problems. Among the girls, divorce was prospectively associated with all variables. The effect of divorce on relative change was partially mediated by paternal absence.

A Pilot Prospective Study of Fetomaternal Hemorrhage Identified by Anemia in Asymptomatic Neonates

PubMed Central

Stroustrup, Annemarie; Plafkin, Callie

2016-01-01

Background Fetomaternal hemorrhage (FMH) is a poorly understood condition in which fetal erythrocytes transfer to the maternal circulation via a faulty placental barrier. Little is known about the true incidence, epidemiology, or pathophysiology of FMH in the general pregnant population as existing studies are based on retrospective cohorts and manifest diagnosis and selection bias. Objective To evaluate the practicability of a prospective study of fetomaternal hemorrhage in the general population based on antepartum maternal blood testing and neonatal anemia. Study Design Prospective cohort study. Result Nineteen pregnant women were enrolled prior to the term delivery of twenty well infants. Five neonates were unexpectedly anemic on first postnatal testing. Antenatal maternal blood samples associated with 2 of 5 anemic newborns had positive Kleihauer-Betke testing while no newborn with a normal postnatal blood count had an associated abnormal Kleihauer-Betke test. Conclusion Clinically significant FMH may be more common than previously thought. Prospective epidemiological study of FMH is feasible. PMID:26765555