A Review of Mine Rescue Ensembles for Underground Coal Mining in the United States.

PubMed

Kilinc, F Selcen; Monaghan, William D; Powell, Jeffrey B

The mining industry is among the top ten industries nationwide with high occupational injury and fatality rates, and mine rescue response may be considered one of the most hazardous activities in mining operations. In the aftermath of an underground mine fire, explosion or water inundation, specially equipped and trained teams have been sent underground to fight fires, rescue entrapped miners, test atmospheric conditions, investigate the causes of the disaster, or recover the dead. Special personal protective ensembles are used by the team members to improve the protection of rescuers against the hazards of mine rescue and recovery. Personal protective ensembles used by mine rescue teams consist of helmet, cap lamp, hood, gloves, protective clothing, boots, kneepads, facemask, breathing apparatus, belt, and suspenders. While improved technology such as wireless warning and communication systems, lifeline pulleys, and lighted vests have been developed for mine rescuers over the last 100 years, recent research in this area of personal protective ensembles has been minimal due to the trending of reduced exposure of rescue workers. In recent years, the exposure of mine rescue teams to hazardous situations has been changing. However, it is vital that members of the teams have the capability and proper protection to immediately respond to a wide range of hazardous situations. Currently, there are no minimum requirements, best practice documents, or nationally recognized consensus standards for protective clothing used by mine rescue teams in the United States (U.S.). The following review provides a summary of potential issues that can be addressed by rescue teams and industry to improve potential exposures to rescue team members should a disaster situation occur. However, the continued trending in the mining industry toward non-exposure to potential hazards for rescue workers should continue to be the primary goal. To assist in continuing this trend, the mining industry and regulatory agencies have been more restrictive by requiring additional post disaster information regarding atmospheric conditions and other hazards before exposing rescue workers and others in the aftermath of a mine disaster. In light of some of the more recent mine rescuer fatalities such as the Crandall Canyon Mine and Jim Walters Resources in the past years, the direction of reducing exposure is preferred. This review provides a historical perspective on ensembles used during mine rescue operations and summarizes environmental hazards, critical elements of mine rescue ensembles, and key problems with these elements. This study also identifies domains for improved mine rescue ensembles. Furthermore, field observations from several coal mine rescue teams were added to provide the information on the currently used mine rescue ensembles in the U.S.

A Review of Mine Rescue Ensembles for Underground Coal Mining in the United States

PubMed Central

Kilinc, F. Selcen; Monaghan, William D.; Powell, Jeffrey B.

2016-01-01

The mining industry is among the top ten industries nationwide with high occupational injury and fatality rates, and mine rescue response may be considered one of the most hazardous activities in mining operations. In the aftermath of an underground mine fire, explosion or water inundation, specially equipped and trained teams have been sent underground to fight fires, rescue entrapped miners, test atmospheric conditions, investigate the causes of the disaster, or recover the dead. Special personal protective ensembles are used by the team members to improve the protection of rescuers against the hazards of mine rescue and recovery. Personal protective ensembles used by mine rescue teams consist of helmet, cap lamp, hood, gloves, protective clothing, boots, kneepads, facemask, breathing apparatus, belt, and suspenders. While improved technology such as wireless warning and communication systems, lifeline pulleys, and lighted vests have been developed for mine rescuers over the last 100 years, recent research in this area of personal protective ensembles has been minimal due to the trending of reduced exposure of rescue workers. In recent years, the exposure of mine rescue teams to hazardous situations has been changing. However, it is vital that members of the teams have the capability and proper protection to immediately respond to a wide range of hazardous situations. Currently, there are no minimum requirements, best practice documents, or nationally recognized consensus standards for protective clothing used by mine rescue teams in the United States (U.S.). The following review provides a summary of potential issues that can be addressed by rescue teams and industry to improve potential exposures to rescue team members should a disaster situation occur. However, the continued trending in the mining industry toward non-exposure to potential hazards for rescue workers should continue to be the primary goal. To assist in continuing this trend, the mining industry and regulatory agencies have been more restrictive by requiring additional post disaster information regarding atmospheric conditions and other hazards before exposing rescue workers and others in the aftermath of a mine disaster. In light of some of the more recent mine rescuer fatalities such as the Crandall Canyon Mine and Jim Walters Resources in the past years, the direction of reducing exposure is preferred. This review provides a historical perspective on ensembles used during mine rescue operations and summarizes environmental hazards, critical elements of mine rescue ensembles, and key problems with these elements. This study also identifies domains for improved mine rescue ensembles. Furthermore, field observations from several coal mine rescue teams were added to provide the information on the currently used mine rescue ensembles in the U.S. PMID:27065231

Multistage unfolding of an SH3 domain: an initial urea-filled dry molten globule precedes a wet molten globule with non-native structure.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Amrita; Udgaonkar, Jayant B; Das, Payel

2014-06-19

The unfolding of the SH3 domain of the PI3 kinase in aqueous urea has been studied using a synergistic experiment-simulation approach. The experimental observation of a transient wet molten globule intermediate, IU, with an unusual non-native burial of the sole Trp residue, W53, provides the benchmark for the unfolding simulations performed (eight in total, each at least 0.5 μs long). The simulations reveal that the partially unfolded IU ensemble is preceded by an early native-like molten globule intermediate ensemble I*. In the very initial stage of unfolding, dry globule conformations with the protein core filled with urea instead of water are transiently observed within the I* ensemble. Water penetration into the urea-filled core of dry globule conformations is frequently accompanied by very transient burial of W53. Later during gradual unfolding, W53 is seen to again become transiently buried in the IU ensemble for a much longer time. In the structurally heterogeneous IU ensemble, conformational flexibility of the C-terminal β-strands enables W53 burial by the formation of non-native, tertiary contacts with hydrophobic residues, which could serve to protect the protein from aggregation during unfolding.

Stochastic dynamics of small ensembles of non-processive molecular motors: The parallel cluster model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erdmann, Thorsten; Albert, Philipp J.; Schwarz, Ulrich S.

2013-11-07

Non-processive molecular motors have to work together in ensembles in order to generate appreciable levels of force or movement. In skeletal muscle, for example, hundreds of myosin II molecules cooperate in thick filaments. In non-muscle cells, by contrast, small groups with few tens of non-muscle myosin II motors contribute to essential cellular processes such as transport, shape changes, or mechanosensing. Here we introduce a detailed and analytically tractable model for this important situation. Using a three-state crossbridge model for the myosin II motor cycle and exploiting the assumptions of fast power stroke kinetics and equal load sharing between motors inmore » equivalent states, we reduce the stochastic reaction network to a one-step master equation for the binding and unbinding dynamics (parallel cluster model) and derive the rules for ensemble movement. We find that for constant external load, ensemble dynamics is strongly shaped by the catch bond character of myosin II, which leads to an increase of the fraction of bound motors under load and thus to firm attachment even for small ensembles. This adaptation to load results in a concave force-velocity relation described by a Hill relation. For external load provided by a linear spring, myosin II ensembles dynamically adjust themselves towards an isometric state with constant average position and load. The dynamics of the ensembles is now determined mainly by the distribution of motors over the different kinds of bound states. For increasing stiffness of the external spring, there is a sharp transition beyond which myosin II can no longer perform the power stroke. Slow unbinding from the pre-power-stroke state protects the ensembles against detachment.« less

Development and Validation of a Test System for measuring the Acoustic Signature of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Personal Protective Equipment Ensembles

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

silent metronome . The anechoic chamber measured approximately 3 x 3 m in length and width and approximately 2 m in height. The free field microphone...ensure performed exercises would occur at the same relative speed (i.e., a metronome ). The silent system relied on a string of miniature lights

Effect of Heat and Chemical Protective Clothing on Sustained Mental Performance by Female Soldiers

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-29

environments was done to insure that performace in the HOPP-Control condition rQflooted only the effect of weLring the protective ensemble, and not...average number of targets plotted by the group by Conditions and Elapsed Hours of Work are shown in Pig. A. ANOVA resulted in significant main effects ...in Fig. 5. ANOVA resulted In a highly signifioant Conditions effeot (F=36.71jd.f.z3,192;p(0.00001) and a signifioant effect for Lapsed Hours of Work

Ensemble training to improve recognition using 2D ear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middendorff, Christopher; Bowyer, Kevin W.

2009-05-01

The ear has gained popularity as a biometric feature due to the robustness of the shape over time and across emotional expression. Popular methods of ear biometrics analyze the ear as a whole, leaving these methods vulnerable to error due to occlusion. Many researchers explore ear recognition using an ensemble, but none present a method for designing the individual parts that comprise the ensemble. In this work, we introduce a method of modifying the ensemble shapes to improve performance. We determine how different properties of an ensemble training system can affect overall performance. We show that ensembles built from small parts will outperform ensembles built with larger parts, and that incorporating a large number of parts improves the performance of the ensemble.

Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean.

PubMed

Iannella, Mattia; Cerasoli, Francesco; D'Alessandro, Paola; Console, Giulia; Biondi, Maurizio

2018-01-01

The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris ' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.

Exploring diversity in ensemble classification: Applications in large area land cover mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, Andrew; Boukir, Samia

2017-07-01

Ensemble classifiers, such as random forests, are now commonly applied in the field of remote sensing, and have been shown to perform better than single classifier systems, resulting in reduced generalisation error. Diversity across the members of ensemble classifiers is known to have a strong influence on classification performance - whereby classifier errors are uncorrelated and more uniformly distributed across ensemble members. The relationship between ensemble diversity and classification performance has not yet been fully explored in the fields of information science and machine learning and has never been examined in the field of remote sensing. This study is a novel exploration of ensemble diversity and its link to classification performance, applied to a multi-class canopy cover classification problem using random forests and multisource remote sensing and ancillary GIS data, across seven million hectares of diverse dry-sclerophyll dominated public forests in Victoria Australia. A particular emphasis is placed on analysing the relationship between ensemble diversity and ensemble margin - two key concepts in ensemble learning. The main novelty of our work is on boosting diversity by emphasizing the contribution of lower margin instances used in the learning process. Exploring the influence of tree pruning on diversity is also a new empirical analysis that contributes to a better understanding of ensemble performance. Results reveal insights into the trade-off between ensemble classification accuracy and diversity, and through the ensemble margin, demonstrate how inducing diversity by targeting lower margin training samples is a means of achieving better classifier performance for more difficult or rarer classes and reducing information redundancy in classification problems. Our findings inform strategies for collecting training data and designing and parameterising ensemble classifiers, such as random forests. This is particularly important in large area remote sensing applications, for which training data is costly and resource intensive to collect.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction.

PubMed

Lin, Jhih-Rong; Mondal, Ananda Mohan; Liu, Rong; Hu, Jianjun

2012-07-03

Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi.

Minimalist ensemble algorithms for genome-wide protein localization prediction

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Computational prediction of protein subcellular localization can greatly help to elucidate its functions. Despite the existence of dozens of protein localization prediction algorithms, the prediction accuracy and coverage are still low. Several ensemble algorithms have been proposed to improve the prediction performance, which usually include as many as 10 or more individual localization algorithms. However, their performance is still limited by the running complexity and redundancy among individual prediction algorithms. Results This paper proposed a novel method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms for practical genome-wide protein subcellular localization prediction. The algorithm is based on combining a feature selection based filter and a logistic regression classifier. Using a novel concept of contribution scores, we analyzed issues of algorithm redundancy, consensus mistakes, and algorithm complementarity in designing ensemble algorithms. We applied the proposed minimalist logistic regression (LR) ensemble algorithm to two genome-wide datasets of Yeast and Human and compared its performance with current ensemble algorithms. Experimental results showed that the minimalist ensemble algorithm can achieve high prediction accuracy with only 1/3 to 1/2 of individual predictors of current ensemble algorithms, which greatly reduces computational complexity and running time. It was found that the high performance ensemble algorithms are usually composed of the predictors that together cover most of available features. Compared to the best individual predictor, our ensemble algorithm improved the prediction accuracy from AUC score of 0.558 to 0.707 for the Yeast dataset and from 0.628 to 0.646 for the Human dataset. Compared with popular weighted voting based ensemble algorithms, our classifier-based ensemble algorithms achieved much better performance without suffering from inclusion of too many individual predictors. Conclusions We proposed a method for rational design of minimalist ensemble algorithms using feature selection and classifiers. The proposed minimalist ensemble algorithm based on logistic regression can achieve equal or better prediction performance while using only half or one-third of individual predictors compared to other ensemble algorithms. The results also suggested that meta-predictors that take advantage of a variety of features by combining individual predictors tend to achieve the best performance. The LR ensemble server and related benchmark datasets are available at http://mleg.cse.sc.edu/LRensemble/cgi-bin/predict.cgi. PMID:22759391

Encoding of Spatial Attention by Primate Prefrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensembles

PubMed Central

Treue, Stefan

2018-01-01

Abstract Single neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode information about the allocation of visual attention and the features of visual stimuli. However, how this compares to the performance of neuronal ensembles at encoding the same information is poorly understood. Here, we recorded the responses of neuronal ensembles in the LPFC of two macaque monkeys while they performed a task that required attending to one of two moving random dot patterns positioned in different hemifields and ignoring the other pattern. We found single units selective for the location of the attended stimulus as well as for its motion direction. To determine the coding of both variables in the population of recorded units, we used a linear classifier and progressively built neuronal ensembles by iteratively adding units according to their individual performance (best single units), or by iteratively adding units based on their contribution to the ensemble performance (best ensemble). For both methods, ensembles of relatively small sizes (n < 60) yielded substantially higher decoding performance relative to individual single units. However, the decoder reached similar performance using fewer neurons with the best ensemble building method compared with the best single units method. Our results indicate that neuronal ensembles within the LPFC encode more information about the attended spatial and nonspatial features of visual stimuli than individual neurons. They further suggest that efficient coding of attention can be achieved by relatively small neuronal ensembles characterized by a certain relationship between signal and noise correlation structures. PMID:29568798

Argumentation Based Joint Learning: A Novel Ensemble Learning Approach

PubMed Central

Xu, Junyi; Yao, Li; Li, Le

2015-01-01

Recently, ensemble learning methods have been widely used to improve classification performance in machine learning. In this paper, we present a novel ensemble learning method: argumentation based multi-agent joint learning (AMAJL), which integrates ideas from multi-agent argumentation, ensemble learning, and association rule mining. In AMAJL, argumentation technology is introduced as an ensemble strategy to integrate multiple base classifiers and generate a high performance ensemble classifier. We design an argumentation framework named Arena as a communication platform for knowledge integration. Through argumentation based joint learning, high quality individual knowledge can be extracted, and thus a refined global knowledge base can be generated and used independently for classification. We perform numerous experiments on multiple public datasets using AMAJL and other benchmark methods. The results demonstrate that our method can effectively extract high quality knowledge for ensemble classifier and improve the performance of classification. PMID:25966359

Thermal stress in seven types of chemical defense ensembles during moderate exercise in hot environments. Final report, May 1991-July 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bomalaski, S.H.; Hengst, R.; Constable, S.H.

United States Air Force -(USAF) personnel must perform their duties in many operational environments, including those with the potential for contamination with toxic chemical warfare (CW) agents. This study evaluated the physiological response to thermal stress in subjects performing moderate work in current and prototype chemical protective garments including the Battle Dress Overgarment (BDO)+BDU, BDO without BDU, United Kingdom (UK) undercoverall+BDU, Gore-Tex rainsuit+PJ-7 undercoverall, Marine Light Fighter Suit (MLFS), CWU77P, PJ-7 alone, and the BDU alone. Experimental conditions were dry bulb temperature of 40 deg C (104 deg F), a wet bulb temperature of 270C (80.6 deg F), and amore » black globe temperature of 450C (113 deg F). Eleven subjects walked on a treadmill at 3 mph with a 5% grade incline until rectal temperature (Tre) rose 1.5 deg C (2.7 deg F) above the starting value. Heart rate, rectal and mean skin temperature, and body heat storage were monitored continuously. Sweat evaporation and production were determined from the differences between pre- and postexperiment clothed and nude weights. Significantly longer work times, lower heart rates, lower Tmsk, and lower heat storage, were seen in the group comprised of the BDU, MLFS, CWU-77P, and PJ-7 compared to the Gore-Tex with PJ-7, UK plus BD BDO+BDU, and BDO no BDU ensembles. Suits which resulted in shorter tolerance times also caused rates of sweat production and lower % sweat evaporation than the less physiologically burdensome suits. Chemical protective ensembles, Thermal stress, Clothing, Exercise.« less

A comparison of resampling schemes for estimating model observer performance with small ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshahaby, Fatma E. A.; Jha, Abhinav K.; Ghaly, Michael; Frey, Eric C.

2017-09-01

In objective assessment of image quality, an ensemble of images is used to compute the 1st and 2nd order statistics of the data. Often, only a finite number of images is available, leading to the issue of statistical variability in numerical observer performance. Resampling-based strategies can help overcome this issue. In this paper, we compared different combinations of resampling schemes (the leave-one-out (LOO) and the half-train/half-test (HT/HT)) and model observers (the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), channelized linear discriminant (CLD) and channelized quadratic discriminant). Observer performance was quantified by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For a binary classification task and for each observer, the AUC value for an ensemble size of 2000 samples per class served as a gold standard for that observer. Results indicated that each observer yielded a different performance depending on the ensemble size and the resampling scheme. For a small ensemble size, the combination [CHO, HT/HT] had more accurate rankings than the combination [CHO, LOO]. Using the LOO scheme, the CLD and CHO had similar performance for large ensembles. However, the CLD outperformed the CHO and gave more accurate rankings for smaller ensembles. As the ensemble size decreased, the performance of the [CHO, LOO] combination seriously deteriorated as opposed to the [CLD, LOO] combination. Thus, it might be desirable to use the CLD with the LOO scheme when smaller ensemble size is available.

A computational pipeline for the development of multi-marker bio-signature panels and ensemble classifiers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? Results The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Conclusion Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway. PMID:23216969

A computational pipeline for the development of multi-marker bio-signature panels and ensemble classifiers.

PubMed

Günther, Oliver P; Chen, Virginia; Freue, Gabriela Cohen; Balshaw, Robert F; Tebbutt, Scott J; Hollander, Zsuzsanna; Takhar, Mandeep; McMaster, W Robert; McManus, Bruce M; Keown, Paul A; Ng, Raymond T

2012-12-08

Biomarker panels derived separately from genomic and proteomic data and with a variety of computational methods have demonstrated promising classification performance in various diseases. An open question is how to create effective proteo-genomic panels. The framework of ensemble classifiers has been applied successfully in various analytical domains to combine classifiers so that the performance of the ensemble exceeds the performance of individual classifiers. Using blood-based diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection as a case study, we address the following question in this paper: Can acute rejection classification performance be improved by combining individual genomic and proteomic classifiers in an ensemble? The first part of the paper presents a computational biomarker development pipeline for genomic and proteomic data. The pipeline begins with data acquisition (e.g., from bio-samples to microarray data), quality control, statistical analysis and mining of the data, and finally various forms of validation. The pipeline ensures that the various classifiers to be combined later in an ensemble are diverse and adequate for clinical use. Five mRNA genomic and five proteomic classifiers were developed independently using single time-point blood samples from 11 acute-rejection and 22 non-rejection renal transplant patients. The second part of the paper examines five ensembles ranging in size from two to 10 individual classifiers. Performance of ensembles is characterized by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity, as derived from the probability of acute rejection for individual classifiers in the ensemble in combination with one of two aggregation methods: (1) Average Probability or (2) Vote Threshold. One ensemble demonstrated superior performance and was able to improve sensitivity and AUC beyond the best values observed for any of the individual classifiers in the ensemble, while staying within the range of observed specificity. The Vote Threshold aggregation method achieved improved sensitivity for all 5 ensembles, but typically at the cost of decreased specificity. Proteo-genomic biomarker ensemble classifiers show promise in the diagnosis of acute renal allograft rejection and can improve classification performance beyond that of individual genomic or proteomic classifiers alone. Validation of our results in an international multicenter study is currently underway.

Modeling task-specific neuronal ensembles improves decoding of grasp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Ryan J.; Soares, Alcimar B.; Rouse, Adam G.; Schieber, Marc H.; Thakor, Nitish V.

2018-06-01

Objective. Dexterous movement involves the activation and coordination of networks of neuronal populations across multiple cortical regions. Attempts to model firing of individual neurons commonly treat the firing rate as directly modulating with motor behavior. However, motor behavior may additionally be associated with modulations in the activity and functional connectivity of neurons in a broader ensemble. Accounting for variations in neural ensemble connectivity may provide additional information about the behavior being performed. Approach. In this study, we examined neural ensemble activity in primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor cortex (PM) of two male rhesus monkeys during performance of a center-out reach, grasp and manipulate task. We constructed point process encoding models of neuronal firing that incorporated task-specific variations in the baseline firing rate as well as variations in functional connectivity with the neural ensemble. Models were evaluated both in terms of their encoding capabilities and their ability to properly classify the grasp being performed. Main results. Task-specific ensemble models correctly predicted the performed grasp with over 95% accuracy and were shown to outperform models of neuronal activity that assume only a variable baseline firing rate. Task-specific ensemble models exhibited superior decoding performance in 82% of units in both monkeys (p  <  0.01). Inclusion of ensemble activity also broadly improved the ability of models to describe observed spiking. Encoding performance of task-specific ensemble models, measured by spike timing predictability, improved upon baseline models in 62% of units. Significance. These results suggest that additional discriminative information about motor behavior found in the variations in functional connectivity of neuronal ensembles located in motor-related cortical regions is relevant to decode complex tasks such as grasping objects, and may serve the basis for more reliable and accurate neural prosthesis.

Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina

2005-01-01

This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…

Improving ensemble decision tree performance using Adaboost and Bagging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Rajib; Siraj, Fadzilah; Sainin, Mohd Shamrie

2015-12-01

Ensemble classifier systems are considered as one of the most promising in medical data classification and the performance of deceision tree classifier can be increased by the ensemble method as it is proven to be better than single classifiers. However, in a ensemble settings the performance depends on the selection of suitable base classifier. This research employed two prominent esemble s namely Adaboost and Bagging with base classifiers such as Random Forest, Random Tree, j48, j48grafts and Logistic Model Regression (LMT) that have been selected independently. The empirical study shows that the performance varries when different base classifiers are selected and even some places overfitting issue also been noted. The evidence shows that ensemble decision tree classfiers using Adaboost and Bagging improves the performance of selected medical data sets.

An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy

PubMed Central

Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang

2016-01-01

For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system. PMID:27835638

An Improved Ensemble of Random Vector Functional Link Networks Based on Particle Swarm Optimization with Double Optimization Strategy.

PubMed

Ling, Qing-Hua; Song, Yu-Qing; Han, Fei; Yang, Dan; Huang, De-Shuang

2016-01-01

For ensemble learning, how to select and combine the candidate classifiers are two key issues which influence the performance of the ensemble system dramatically. Random vector functional link networks (RVFL) without direct input-to-output links is one of suitable base-classifiers for ensemble systems because of its fast learning speed, simple structure and good generalization performance. In this paper, to obtain a more compact ensemble system with improved convergence performance, an improved ensemble of RVFL based on attractive and repulsive particle swarm optimization (ARPSO) with double optimization strategy is proposed. In the proposed method, ARPSO is applied to select and combine the candidate RVFL. As for using ARPSO to select the optimal base RVFL, ARPSO considers both the convergence accuracy on the validation data and the diversity of the candidate ensemble system to build the RVFL ensembles. In the process of combining RVFL, the ensemble weights corresponding to the base RVFL are initialized by the minimum norm least-square method and then further optimized by ARPSO. Finally, a few redundant RVFL is pruned, and thus the more compact ensemble of RVFL is obtained. Moreover, in this paper, theoretical analysis and justification on how to prune the base classifiers on classification problem is presented, and a simple and practically feasible strategy for pruning redundant base classifiers on both classification and regression problems is proposed. Since the double optimization is performed on the basis of the single optimization, the ensemble of RVFL built by the proposed method outperforms that built by some single optimization methods. Experiment results on function approximation and classification problems verify that the proposed method could improve its convergence accuracy as well as reduce the complexity of the ensemble system.

Fluorescent probe for turn-on sensing of L-cysteine by ensemble of AuNCs and polymer protected AuNPs.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaozhe; Qiao, Juan; Li, Nan; Qi, Li; Zhang, Shufeng

2015-06-16

A new fluorescent probe based on ensemble of gold nanoclusters (AuNCs) and polymer protected gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) for turn-on sensing of L-cysteine was designed and prepared. The AuNCs were protected by bovine serum albumin and had strong fluorescence. The polymer protected AuNPs were synthesized by a facile in situ strategy at room temperature and could quench the fluorescence of AuNCs due to the Förster resonance energy transfer. Interestingly, it has been observed that the quenched fluorescence of AuNCs was recovered by L-cysteine, which could induce the aggregation of polymer protected AuNPs by sulfur group. Then the prepared fluorescent probe was successfully used for determination of L-Cys in human urines, which would have an evolving aspect and promote the subsequent exploration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender and Attraction: Predicting Middle School Performance Ensemble Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warnock, Emery C.

2009-01-01

This study was designed to predict middle school sixth graders' group membership in band (n = 81), chorus (n = 45), and as non-participants in music performance ensembles (n = 127), as determined by gender and factors on the Attraction Toward School Performance Ensemble (ATSPE) scale (alpha = 0.88). Students completed the ATSPE as elementary fifth…

Overlapped Partitioning for Ensemble Classifiers of P300-Based Brain-Computer Interfaces

PubMed Central

Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa

2014-01-01

A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance. PMID:24695550

Overlapped partitioning for ensemble classifiers of P300-based brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Onishi, Akinari; Natsume, Kiyohisa

2014-01-01

A P300-based brain-computer interface (BCI) enables a wide range of people to control devices that improve their quality of life. Ensemble classifiers with naive partitioning were recently applied to the P300-based BCI and these classification performances were assessed. However, they were usually trained on a large amount of training data (e.g., 15300). In this study, we evaluated ensemble linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifiers with a newly proposed overlapped partitioning method using 900 training data. In addition, the classification performances of the ensemble classifier with naive partitioning and a single LDA classifier were compared. One of three conditions for dimension reduction was applied: the stepwise method, principal component analysis (PCA), or none. The results show that an ensemble stepwise LDA (SWLDA) classifier with overlapped partitioning achieved a better performance than the commonly used single SWLDA classifier and an ensemble SWLDA classifier with naive partitioning. This result implies that the performance of the SWLDA is improved by overlapped partitioning and the ensemble classifier with overlapped partitioning requires less training data than that with naive partitioning. This study contributes towards reducing the required amount of training data and achieving better classification performance.

An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.

PubMed

Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J

2016-01-01

Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa ( κ ): 0.63 and 0.62] for both the datasets. The ROC curves demonstrate the utility of the cut-off feature in the predictive ability of the ensemble model. This feature provides an additional control to the regulators in grading a chemical based on the severity of the toxic endpoint under study.

An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment

DOE PAGES

Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J.; White, Shannon; ...

2016-09-22

Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflictingmore » predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa (κ): 0.63 and 0.62] for both the datasets. The ROC curves demonstrate the utility of the cut-off feature in the predictive ability of the ensemble model. In conclusion, this feature provides an additional control to the regulators in grading a chemical based on the severity of the toxic endpoint under study.« less

Improving Classification Performance through an Advanced Ensemble Based Heterogeneous Extreme Learning Machines.

PubMed

Abuassba, Adnan O M; Zhang, Dezheng; Luo, Xiong; Shaheryar, Ahmad; Ali, Hazrat

2017-01-01

Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a fast-learning algorithm for a single-hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN). It often has good generalization performance. However, there are chances that it might overfit the training data due to having more hidden nodes than needed. To address the generalization performance, we use a heterogeneous ensemble approach. We propose an Advanced ELM Ensemble (AELME) for classification, which includes Regularized-ELM, L 2 -norm-optimized ELM (ELML2), and Kernel-ELM. The ensemble is constructed by training a randomly chosen ELM classifier on a subset of training data selected through random resampling. The proposed AELM-Ensemble is evolved by employing an objective function of increasing diversity and accuracy among the final ensemble. Finally, the class label of unseen data is predicted using majority vote approach. Splitting the training data into subsets and incorporation of heterogeneous ELM classifiers result in higher prediction accuracy, better generalization, and a lower number of base classifiers, as compared to other models (Adaboost, Bagging, Dynamic ELM ensemble, data splitting ELM ensemble, and ELM ensemble). The validity of AELME is confirmed through classification on several real-world benchmark datasets.

Improving Classification Performance through an Advanced Ensemble Based Heterogeneous Extreme Learning Machines

PubMed Central

Abuassba, Adnan O. M.; Ali, Hazrat

2017-01-01

Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a fast-learning algorithm for a single-hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN). It often has good generalization performance. However, there are chances that it might overfit the training data due to having more hidden nodes than needed. To address the generalization performance, we use a heterogeneous ensemble approach. We propose an Advanced ELM Ensemble (AELME) for classification, which includes Regularized-ELM, L2-norm-optimized ELM (ELML2), and Kernel-ELM. The ensemble is constructed by training a randomly chosen ELM classifier on a subset of training data selected through random resampling. The proposed AELM-Ensemble is evolved by employing an objective function of increasing diversity and accuracy among the final ensemble. Finally, the class label of unseen data is predicted using majority vote approach. Splitting the training data into subsets and incorporation of heterogeneous ELM classifiers result in higher prediction accuracy, better generalization, and a lower number of base classifiers, as compared to other models (Adaboost, Bagging, Dynamic ELM ensemble, data splitting ELM ensemble, and ELM ensemble). The validity of AELME is confirmed through classification on several real-world benchmark datasets. PMID:28546808

The ARPAL operational high resolution Poor Man's Ensemble, description and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corazza, Matteo; Sacchetti, Davide; Antonelli, Marta; Drofa, Oxana

2018-05-01

The Meteo Hydrological Functional Center for Civil Protection of the Environmental Protection Agency of the Liguria Region is responsible for issuing forecasts primarily aimed at the Civil Protection needs. Several deterministic high resolution models, run every 6 or 12 h, are regularly used in the Center to elaborate weather forecasts at short to medium range. The Region is frequently affected by severe flash floods over its very small basins, characterized by a steep orography close to the sea. These conditions led the Center in the past years to pay particular attention to the use and development of high resolution model chains for explicit simulation of convective phenomena. For years, the availability of several models has been used by the forecasters for subjective analyses of the potential evolution of the atmosphere and of its uncertainty. More recently, an Interactive Poor Man's Ensemble has been developed, aimed at providing statistical ensemble variables to help forecaster's evaluations. In this paper the structure of this system is described and results are validated using the regional dense ground observational network.

Ensembles of NLP Tools for Data Element Extraction from Clinical Notes

PubMed Central

Kuo, Tsung-Ting; Rao, Pallavi; Maehara, Cleo; Doan, Son; Chaparro, Juan D.; Day, Michele E.; Farcas, Claudiu; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Hsu, Chun-Nan

2016-01-01

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is essential for concept extraction from narrative text in electronic health records (EHR). To extract numerous and diverse concepts, such as data elements (i.e., important concepts related to a certain medical condition), a plausible solution is to combine various NLP tools into an ensemble to improve extraction performance. However, it is unclear to what extent ensembles of popular NLP tools improve the extraction of numerous and diverse concepts. Therefore, we built an NLP ensemble pipeline to synergize the strength of popular NLP tools using seven ensemble methods, and to quantify the improvement in performance achieved by ensembles in the extraction of data elements for three very different cohorts. Evaluation results show that the pipeline can improve the performance of NLP tools, but there is high variability depending on the cohort. PMID:28269947

Ensembles of NLP Tools for Data Element Extraction from Clinical Notes.

PubMed

Kuo, Tsung-Ting; Rao, Pallavi; Maehara, Cleo; Doan, Son; Chaparro, Juan D; Day, Michele E; Farcas, Claudiu; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Hsu, Chun-Nan

2016-01-01

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is essential for concept extraction from narrative text in electronic health records (EHR). To extract numerous and diverse concepts, such as data elements (i.e., important concepts related to a certain medical condition), a plausible solution is to combine various NLP tools into an ensemble to improve extraction performance. However, it is unclear to what extent ensembles of popular NLP tools improve the extraction of numerous and diverse concepts. Therefore, we built an NLP ensemble pipeline to synergize the strength of popular NLP tools using seven ensemble methods, and to quantify the improvement in performance achieved by ensembles in the extraction of data elements for three very different cohorts. Evaluation results show that the pipeline can improve the performance of NLP tools, but there is high variability depending on the cohort.

The Influence of Music Style and Conductor Race on Perceptions of Ensemble and Conductor Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vanweelden, Kimberly; McGee, Isaiah R.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine music style and conductor race on perceptions of ensemble and conductor performance. Results found that conductor race and music style significantly affected ratings of ensemble and conductor performance. Evaluators rated a white conductor group higher than a black conductor group conducting the same…

Heat Balance Limits in Football Uniforms: How Different Uniform Ensembles Alter the Equation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kulka, Hasha J.; Kenney, W. Larry

2002-01-01

Because football season becomes dangerous when warm weather collides with the need for protective gear, researchers investigated critical heat balance limits in non-heat- acclimatized men who wore various football uniform ensembles and exercised at 35 percent VO2 max in a programmable environmental chamber. The air temperature and humidity limits…

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.

HLPI-Ensemble: Prediction of human lncRNA-protein interactions based on ensemble strategy.

PubMed

Hu, Huan; Zhang, Li; Ai, Haixin; Zhang, Hui; Fan, Yetian; Zhao, Qi; Liu, Hongsheng

2018-03-27

LncRNA plays an important role in many biological and disease progression by binding to related proteins. However, the experimental methods for studying lncRNA-protein interactions are time-consuming and expensive. Although there are a few models designed to predict the interactions of ncRNA-protein, they all have some common drawbacks that limit their predictive performance. In this study, we present a model called HLPI-Ensemble designed specifically for human lncRNA-protein interactions. HLPI-Ensemble adopts the ensemble strategy based on three mainstream machine learning algorithms of Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) to generate HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble, respectively. The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that HLPI-SVM Ensemble, HLPI-RF Ensemble and HLPI-XGB Ensemble achieved AUCs of 0.95, 0.96 and 0.96, respectively, in the test dataset. Furthermore, we compared the performance of the HLPI-Ensemble models with the previous models through external validation dataset. The results show that the false positives (FPs) of HLPI-Ensemble models are much lower than that of the previous models, and other evaluation indicators of HLPI-Ensemble models are also higher than those of the previous models. It is further showed that HLPI-Ensemble models are superior in predicting human lncRNA-protein interaction compared with previous models. The HLPI-Ensemble is publicly available at: http://ccsipb.lnu.edu.cn/hlpiensemble/ .

Limited effectiveness of heat acclimation to soldiers wearing US Army and US Air Force chemical protective clothing. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, S.K.; Gonzalez, R.R.

1995-11-01

Heat acclilmation-induced sweating responses have the potential of reducing heat strain for soldiers wearing chemical protective garment. However, this potential benefit is strongly affected by the properties of the garment. If the clothing ensemble permits sufficient evaporative heat dissipation, then heat acclimation becomes helpful in reducing heat strain. On the other hand, if the garment creates an impenetrable barrier to moisture, no benefit can be gained from heat acclimation as the additional sweating cannot be evaporated. We studied 10 subjects exercising on a treadmill while wearing two different U.S. military chemical protective ensembles. Skin heat flux, skin temperature, core temperature,more » metabolic heat production, and heart rate were measured. We found that the benefit of heat acclimation is strongly dependent on an unimpeded ability of evaporative heat loss from skin areas. The evaporative potential (EP), a measure of thermal insulation modified by moisture permeability, of the clothing ensemble offers a quantitative index useful to determine whether heat acclimation is helpful while protective clothing system. Our data show that when EP is less than 15%, heat acclimation affords no benefit. An evaporative potential graph is created to aid in this determination.« less

SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

PubMed

Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

2017-01-01

Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction

PubMed Central

Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

2017-01-01

Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers. PMID:28060807

An Effective and Novel Neural Network Ensemble for Shift Pattern Detection in Control Charts.

PubMed

Barghash, Mahmoud

2015-01-01

Pattern recognition in control charts is critical to make a balance between discovering faults as early as possible and reducing the number of false alarms. This work is devoted to designing a multistage neural network ensemble that achieves this balance which reduces rework and scrape without reducing productivity. The ensemble under focus is composed of a series of neural network stages and a series of decision points. Initially, this work compared using multidecision points and single-decision point on the performance of the ANN which showed that multidecision points are highly preferable to single-decision points. This work also tested the effect of population percentages on the ANN and used this to optimize the ANN's performance. Also this work used optimized and nonoptimized ANNs in an ensemble and proved that using nonoptimized ANN may reduce the performance of the ensemble. The ensemble that used only optimized ANNs has improved performance over individual ANNs and three-sigma level rule. In that respect using the designed ensemble can help in reducing the number of false stops and increasing productivity. It also can be used to discover even small shifts in the mean as early as possible.

Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ye, Qiang

2010-01-01

Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

A Thermal Physiological Comparison of Two HazMat Protective Ensembles With and Without Active Convective Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, Rebecca; Carbo, Jorge; Luna, Bernadette; Webbon, Bruce W.

1998-01-01

Wearing impermeable garments for hazardous materials clean up can often present a health and safety problem for the wearer. Even short duration clean up activities can produce heat stress injuries in hazardous materials workers. It was hypothesized that an internal cooling system might increase worker productivity and decrease likelihood of heat stress injuries in typical HazMat operations. Two HazMat protective ensembles were compared during treadmill exercise. The different ensembles were created using two different suits: a Trelleborg VPS suit representative of current HazMat suits and a prototype suit developed by NASA engineers. The two life support systems used were a current technology Interspiro Spirolite breathing apparatus and a liquid air breathing system that also provided convective cooling. Twelve local members of a HazMat team served as test subjects. They were fully instrumented to allow a complete physiological comparison of their thermal responses to the different ensembles. Results showed that cooling from the liquid air system significantly decreased thermal stress. The results of the subjective evaluations of new design features in the prototype suit were also highly favorable. Incorporation of these new design features could lead to significant operational advantages in the future.

New Technology for the Fire Attire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Although little can be done to reduce the risks of firefighting, something can be done to curb the injuries and fatalities. This is the goal of Project FIRES, a program jointly sponsored by NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's U.S. Fire Administration with technical management provided by Marshall Space Flight Center. Project FIRES (Firefighter's Integrated Response Equipment System) involves applications of advanced materials and design concepts, derived from Apollo to update existing gear which does not adequately protect against many of the hazards encountered in fire suppression activities. A major focus of the effort involves application to the FIRES ensemble of lightweight, fire-resistant, heat-protective materials originally developed for use in astronauts' space suits or in spacecraft components which require thermal protection. Data from the fourteen municipal fire departments participating in the field evaluation will form a basis for development of new nationwide protective ensemble students.

Proceedings of a Symposium - Consequences of Wearing the Chemical Protective Ensemble: Illustrative Assessment Approaches (33rd) Held in San Antonio, Texas on October 31, 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

marksmanship. Proceedings of the 1989 Medical Defense Bioscience Review (pp. 823-826). Aberdeen Proving Ground , MD: US Army Medical Research Institute of...MILITARY PERSONNEL PERFORM THEIR MOS IN MOPP4 William K. Blewett Chemical Research, Development and Engineering Center Aberdeen Proving Ground , MD 21010...approximately the same evaporation rate, surface tension, solubility, and detectability as the agent mustard . The MS is detectable by use of the Chemical

Plasticity of the Binding Site of Renin: Optimized Selection of Protein Structures for Ensemble Docking.

PubMed

Strecker, Claas; Meyer, Bernd

2018-05-29

Protein flexibility poses a major challenge to docking of potential ligands in that the binding site can adopt different shapes. Docking algorithms usually keep the protein rigid and only allow the ligand to be treated as flexible. However, a wrong assessment of the shape of the binding pocket can prevent a ligand from adapting a correct pose. Ensemble docking is a simple yet promising method to solve this problem: Ligands are docked into multiple structures, and the results are subsequently merged. Selection of protein structures is a significant factor for this approach. In this work we perform a comprehensive and comparative study evaluating the impact of structure selection on ensemble docking. We perform ensemble docking with several crystal structures and with structures derived from molecular dynamics simulations of renin, an attractive target for antihypertensive drugs. Here, 500 ns of MD simulations revealed binding site shapes not found in any available crystal structure. We evaluate the importance of structure selection for ensemble docking by comparing binding pose prediction, ability to rank actives above nonactives (screening utility), and scoring accuracy. As a result, for ensemble definition k-means clustering appears to be better suited than hierarchical clustering with average linkage. The best performing ensemble consists of four crystal structures and is able to reproduce the native ligand poses better than any individual crystal structure. Moreover this ensemble outperforms 88% of all individual crystal structures in terms of screening utility as well as scoring accuracy. Similarly, ensembles of MD-derived structures perform on average better than 75% of any individual crystal structure in terms of scoring accuracy at all inspected ensembles sizes.

Assessment of Protective Gloves for Use with Airfed Suits

PubMed Central

Millard, Claire E.

2015-01-01

Gloves are often needed for hand protection at work, but they can impair manual dexterity, especially if they are multilayered or ill-fitting. This article describes two studies of gloves to be worn with airfed suits (AFS) for nuclear decommissioning or containment level 4 (CL4) microbiological work. Both sets of workers wear multiple layers of gloves for protection and to accommodate decontamination procedures. Nuclear workers are also often required to wear cut-resistant gloves as an extra layer of protection. A total of 15 subjects volunteered to take part in manual dexterity testing of the different gloving systems. The subjects’ hands were measured to ensure that the appropriate sized gloves were used. The gloves were tested with the subjects wearing the complete clothing ensembles appropriate to the work, using a combination of standard dexterity tests: the nine-hole peg test; a pin test adapted from the European Standard for protective gloves, the Purdue Pegboard test, and the Minnesota turning test. Specialized tests such as a hand tool test were used to test nuclear gloves, and laboratory-type manipulation tasks were used to test CL4 gloves. Subjective assessments of temperature sensation and skin wettedness were made before and after the dexterity tests of the nuclear gloves only. During all assessments, we made observations and questioned the subjects about ergonomic issues related to the clothing ensembles. Overall, the results show that the greater the thickness of the gloves and the number of layers the more the levels of manual dexterity performance are degraded. The nuclear cut-resistant gloves with the worst level of dexterity were stiff and inflexible and the subjects experienced problems picking up small items and bending their hands. The work also highlighted other factors that affect manual dexterity performance, including proper sizing, interactions with the other garments worn at the time, and the work equipment in use. In conclusion, when evaluating gloves for use in the workplace it is important to use tests that reflect the working environment and always to consider the balance between protection and usability. PMID:26272645

Assessment of Protective Gloves for Use with Airfed Suits.

PubMed

Millard, Claire E; Vaughan, Nicholas P

2015-10-01

Gloves are often needed for hand protection at work, but they can impair manual dexterity, especially if they are multilayered or ill-fitting. This article describes two studies of gloves to be worn with airfed suits (AFS) for nuclear decommissioning or containment level 4 (CL4) microbiological work. Both sets of workers wear multiple layers of gloves for protection and to accommodate decontamination procedures. Nuclear workers are also often required to wear cut-resistant gloves as an extra layer of protection. A total of 15 subjects volunteered to take part in manual dexterity testing of the different gloving systems. The subjects' hands were measured to ensure that the appropriate sized gloves were used. The gloves were tested with the subjects wearing the complete clothing ensembles appropriate to the work, using a combination of standard dexterity tests: the nine-hole peg test; a pin test adapted from the European Standard for protective gloves, the Purdue Pegboard test, and the Minnesota turning test. Specialized tests such as a hand tool test were used to test nuclear gloves, and laboratory-type manipulation tasks were used to test CL4 gloves. Subjective assessments of temperature sensation and skin wettedness were made before and after the dexterity tests of the nuclear gloves only. During all assessments, we made observations and questioned the subjects about ergonomic issues related to the clothing ensembles. Overall, the results show that the greater the thickness of the gloves and the number of layers the more the levels of manual dexterity performance are degraded. The nuclear cut-resistant gloves with the worst level of dexterity were stiff and inflexible and the subjects experienced problems picking up small items and bending their hands. The work also highlighted other factors that affect manual dexterity performance, including proper sizing, interactions with the other garments worn at the time, and the work equipment in use. In conclusion, when evaluating gloves for use in the workplace it is important to use tests that reflect the working environment and always to consider the balance between protection and usability. © Crown copyright 2015.

Additional helmet and pack loading reduce situational awareness during the establishment of marksmanship posture.

PubMed

Lim, Jongil; Palmer, Christopher J; Busa, Michael A; Amado, Avelino; Rosado, Luis D; Ducharme, Scott W; Simon, Darnell; Van Emmerik, Richard E A

2017-06-01

The pickup of visual information is critical for controlling movement and maintaining situational awareness in dangerous situations. Altered coordination while wearing protective equipment may impact the likelihood of injury or death. This investigation examined the consequences of load magnitude and distribution on situational awareness, segmental coordination and head gaze in several protective equipment ensembles. Twelve soldiers stepped down onto force plates and were instructed to quickly and accurately identify visual information while establishing marksmanship posture in protective equipment. Time to discriminate visual information was extended when additional pack and helmet loads were added, with the small increase in helmet load having the largest effect. Greater head-leading and in-phase trunk-head coordination were found with lighter pack loads, while trunk-leading coordination increased and head gaze dynamics were more disrupted in heavier pack loads. Additional armour load in the vest had no consequences for Time to discriminate, coordination or head dynamics. This suggests that the addition of head borne load be carefully considered when integrating new technology and that up-armouring does not necessarily have negative consequences for marksmanship performance. Practitioner Summary: Understanding the trade-space between protection and reductions in task performance continue to challenge those developing personal protective equipment. These methods provide an approach that can help optimise equipment design and loading techniques by quantifying changes in task performance and the emergent coordination dynamics that underlie that performance.

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation for the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, N.; Bojarova, J.; Vignes, O.

2014-02-01

A hybrid variational ensemble data assimilation has been developed on top of the HIRLAM variational data assimilation. It provides the possibility of applying a flow-dependent background error covariance model during the data assimilation at the same time as full rank characteristics of the variational data assimilation are preserved. The hybrid formulation is based on an augmentation of the assimilation control variable with localised weights to be assigned to a set of ensemble member perturbations (deviations from the ensemble mean). The flow-dependency of the hybrid assimilation is demonstrated in single simulated observation impact studies and the improved performance of the hybrid assimilation in comparison with pure 3-dimensional variational as well as pure ensemble assimilation is also proven in real observation assimilation experiments. The performance of the hybrid assimilation is comparable to the performance of the 4-dimensional variational data assimilation. The sensitivity to various parameters of the hybrid assimilation scheme and the sensitivity to the applied ensemble generation techniques are also examined. In particular, the inclusion of ensemble perturbations with a lagged validity time has been examined with encouraging results.

Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Gardner, Beth; Oppel, Steffen; Meirinho, Ana; Ramírez, Iván; Miller, Peter I.; Louzao, Maite

2012-01-01

Knowledge about the spatial distribution of seabirds at sea is important for conservation. During marine conservation planning, logistical constraints preclude seabird surveys covering the complete area of interest and spatial distribution of seabirds is frequently inferred from predictive statistical models. Increasingly complex models are available to relate the distribution and abundance of pelagic seabirds to environmental variables, but a comparison of their usefulness for delineating protected areas for seabirds is lacking. Here we compare the performance of five modelling techniques (generalised linear models, generalised additive models, Random Forest, boosted regression trees, and maximum entropy) to predict the distribution of Balearic Shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) along the coast of the western Iberian Peninsula. We used ship transect data from 2004 to 2009 and 13 environmental variables to predict occurrence and density, and evaluated predictive performance of all models using spatially segregated test data. Predicted distribution varied among the different models, although predictive performance varied little. An ensemble prediction that combined results from all five techniques was robust and confirmed the existence of marine important bird areas for Balearic Shearwaters in Portugal and Spain. Our predictions suggested additional areas that would be of high priority for conservation and could be proposed as protected areas. Abundance data were extremely difficult to predict, and none of five modelling techniques provided a reliable prediction of spatial patterns. We advocate the use of ensemble modelling that combines the output of several methods to predict the spatial distribution of seabirds, and use these predictions to target separate surveys assessing the abundance of seabirds in areas of regular use.

Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data.

PubMed

Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong

2015-01-01

microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials.

Ensemble Methods for MiRNA Target Prediction from Expression Data

PubMed Central

Le, Thuc Duy; Zhang, Junpeng; Liu, Lin; Li, Jiuyong

2015-01-01

Background microRNAs (miRNAs) are short regulatory RNAs that are involved in several diseases, including cancers. Identifying miRNA functions is very important in understanding disease mechanisms and determining the efficacy of drugs. An increasing number of computational methods have been developed to explore miRNA functions by inferring the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships from data. Each of the methods is developed based on some assumptions and constraints, for instance, assuming linear relationships between variables. For such reasons, computational methods are often subject to the problem of inconsistent performance across different datasets. On the other hand, ensemble methods integrate the results from individual methods and have been proved to outperform each of their individual component methods in theory. Results In this paper, we investigate the performance of some ensemble methods over the commonly used miRNA target prediction methods. We apply eight different popular miRNA target prediction methods to three cancer datasets, and compare their performance with the ensemble methods which integrate the results from each combination of the individual methods. The validation results using experimentally confirmed databases show that the results of the ensemble methods complement those obtained by the individual methods and the ensemble methods perform better than the individual methods across different datasets. The ensemble method, Pearson+IDA+Lasso, which combines methods in different approaches, including a correlation method, a causal inference method, and a regression method, is the best performed ensemble method in this study. Further analysis of the results of this ensemble method shows that the ensemble method can obtain more targets which could not be found by any of the single methods, and the discovered targets are more statistically significant and functionally enriched. The source codes, datasets, miRNA target predictions by all methods, and the ground truth for validation are available in the Supplementary materials. PMID:26114448

The Effect of Ensemble Performance Quality on the Evaluation of Conducting Expressivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silvey, Brian A.

2011-01-01

This study was designed to examine whether the presence of excellent or poor ensemble performances would influence the ratings assigned by ensemble members to conductors who demonstrated highly expressive conducting. Two conductors were videotaped conducting one of two excerpts from an arrangement of Frank Ticheli's "Loch Lomond." These videos…

Demanding Epistemic Democracy and Indirect Civics Pedagogy: The Performance-Oriented Music Ensemble

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pyrcz, Greg; MacLean, Tessa; Hopkins, Mark

2017-01-01

The participation of young adults in performance-oriented music ensembles can be seen to enhance democratic capacities and virtues. Much, however, turns on the particular conception of democracy at work. Although contemporary currents in music education tend towards models of liberal and participatory democracy to govern music ensembles, this…

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.

Ensemble Pruning for Glaucoma Detection in an Unbalanced Data Set.

PubMed

Adler, Werner; Gefeller, Olaf; Gul, Asma; Horn, Folkert K; Khan, Zardad; Lausen, Berthold

2016-12-07

Random forests are successful classifier ensemble methods consisting of typically 100 to 1000 classification trees. Ensemble pruning techniques reduce the computational cost, especially the memory demand, of random forests by reducing the number of trees without relevant loss of performance or even with increased performance of the sub-ensemble. The application to the problem of an early detection of glaucoma, a severe eye disease with low prevalence, based on topographical measurements of the eye background faces specific challenges. We examine the performance of ensemble pruning strategies for glaucoma detection in an unbalanced data situation. The data set consists of 102 topographical features of the eye background of 254 healthy controls and 55 glaucoma patients. We compare the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the Brier score on the total data set, in the majority class, and in the minority class of pruned random forest ensembles obtained with strategies based on the prediction accuracy of greedily grown sub-ensembles, the uncertainty weighted accuracy, and the similarity between single trees. To validate the findings and to examine the influence of the prevalence of glaucoma in the data set, we additionally perform a simulation study with lower prevalences of glaucoma. In glaucoma classification all three pruning strategies lead to improved AUC and smaller Brier scores on the total data set with sub-ensembles as small as 30 to 80 trees compared to the classification results obtained with the full ensemble consisting of 1000 trees. In the simulation study, we were able to show that the prevalence of glaucoma is a critical factor and lower prevalence decreases the performance of our pruning strategies. The memory demand for glaucoma classification in an unbalanced data situation based on random forests could effectively be reduced by the application of pruning strategies without loss of performance in a population with increased risk of glaucoma.

Conductor gestures influence evaluations of ensemble performance

PubMed Central

Morrison, Steven J.; Price, Harry E.; Smedley, Eric M.; Meals, Cory D.

2014-01-01

Previous research has found that listener evaluations of ensemble performances vary depending on the expressivity of the conductor’s gestures, even when performances are otherwise identical. It was the purpose of the present study to test whether this effect of visual information was evident in the evaluation of specific aspects of ensemble performance: articulation and dynamics. We constructed a set of 32 music performances that combined auditory and visual information and were designed to feature a high degree of contrast along one of two target characteristics: articulation and dynamics. We paired each of four music excerpts recorded by a chamber ensemble in both a high- and low-contrast condition with video of four conductors demonstrating high- and low-contrast gesture specifically appropriate to either articulation or dynamics. Using one of two equivalent test forms, college music majors and non-majors (N = 285) viewed sixteen 30 s performances and evaluated the quality of the ensemble’s articulation, dynamics, technique, and tempo along with overall expressivity. Results showed significantly higher evaluations for performances featuring high rather than low conducting expressivity regardless of the ensemble’s performance quality. Evaluations for both articulation and dynamics were strongly and positively correlated with evaluations of overall ensemble expressivity. PMID:25104944

Classifier ensemble construction with rotation forest to improve medical diagnosis performance of machine learning algorithms.

PubMed

Ozcift, Akin; Gulten, Arif

2011-12-01

Improving accuracies of machine learning algorithms is vital in designing high performance computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) systems. Researches have shown that a base classifier performance might be enhanced by ensemble classification strategies. In this study, we construct rotation forest (RF) ensemble classifiers of 30 machine learning algorithms to evaluate their classification performances using Parkinson's, diabetes and heart diseases from literature. While making experiments, first the feature dimension of three datasets is reduced using correlation based feature selection (CFS) algorithm. Second, classification performances of 30 machine learning algorithms are calculated for three datasets. Third, 30 classifier ensembles are constructed based on RF algorithm to assess performances of respective classifiers with the same disease data. All the experiments are carried out with leave-one-out validation strategy and the performances of the 60 algorithms are evaluated using three metrics; classification accuracy (ACC), kappa error (KE) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Base classifiers succeeded 72.15%, 77.52% and 84.43% average accuracies for diabetes, heart and Parkinson's datasets, respectively. As for RF classifier ensembles, they produced average accuracies of 74.47%, 80.49% and 87.13% for respective diseases. RF, a newly proposed classifier ensemble algorithm, might be used to improve accuracy of miscellaneous machine learning algorithms to design advanced CADx systems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical Listening in the Ensemble Rehearsal: A Community of Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bell, Cindy L.

2018-01-01

This article explores a strategy for engaging ensemble members in critical listening analysis of performances and presents opportunities for improving ensemble sound through rigorous dialogue, reflection, and attentive rehearsing. Critical listening asks ensemble members to draw on individual playing experience and knowledge to describe what they…

Real-time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions due to uncertainties in determining CME input parameters. Ensemble modeling of CME propagation in the heliosphere is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. A distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameters are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest (satellites or planets), including a probability distribution of CME shock arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). Ensemble simulations have been performed experimentally in real-time at the CCMC since January 2013. We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 15 CME events, 10 of which were performed in real-time. The observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 5 out of the 12 ensemble runs containing hits. The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the twelve ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time an average absolute error of 8.20 hours was found for all twelve ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling setup was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME.

The WASCAL high-resolution climate projection ensemble for West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, Harald; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni

2017-04-01

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. We perform ensemble-based regional climate simulations at a high resolution of 12km for West Africa to allow a scientifically sound derivation of climate change adaptation measures. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, our ensemble consist of three simulation experiments with the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and one additional experiment with the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM). We discuss the model performance over the validation period 1980-2010, including a novel, station-based precipitation database for West Africa obtained within the WASCAL (West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) program. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high-resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained for the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX-Africa project. While the temperature change signal is similar to that obtained within CORDEX-Africa, our simulations predict a wetter future for the Coast of Guinea and the southern Soudano area and a slight drying in the northernmost part of the Sahel.

Biophysical Assessment and Predicted Thermophysiologic Effects of Body Armor

PubMed Central

Potter, Adam W.; Gonzalez, Julio A.; Karis, Anthony J.; Xu, Xiaojiang

2015-01-01

Introduction Military personnel are often required to wear ballistic protection in order to defend against enemies. However, this added protection increases mass carried and imposes additional thermal burden on the individual. Body armor (BA) is known to reduce combat casualties, but the effects of BA mass and insulation on the physical performance of soldiers are less well documented. Until recently, the emphasis has been increasing personal protection, with little consideration of the adverse impacts on human performance. Objective The purpose of this work was to use sweating thermal manikin and mathematical modeling techniques to quantify the tradeoff between increased BA protection, the accompanying mass, and thermal effects on human performance. Methods Using a sweating thermal manikin, total insulation (IT, clo) and vapor permeability indexes (im) were measured for a baseline clothing ensemble with and without one of seven increasingly protective U.S. Army BA configurations. Using mathematical modeling, predictions were made of thermal impact on humans wearing each configuration while working in hot/dry (desert), hot/humid (jungle), and temperate environmental conditions. Results In nearly still air (0.4 m/s), IT ranged from 1.57 to 1.63 clo and im from 0.35 to 0.42 for the seven BA conditions, compared to IT and im values of 1.37 clo and 0.45 respectively, for the baseline condition (no BA). Conclusion Biophysical assessments and predictive modeling show a quantifiable relationship exists among increased protection and increased thermal burden and decreased work capacity. This approach enables quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between ballistic protection, thermal-work strain, and physical work performance. PMID:26200906

Biophysical Assessment and Predicted Thermophysiologic Effects of Body Armor.

PubMed

Potter, Adam W; Gonzalez, Julio A; Karis, Anthony J; Xu, Xiaojiang

2015-01-01

Military personnel are often required to wear ballistic protection in order to defend against enemies. However, this added protection increases mass carried and imposes additional thermal burden on the individual. Body armor (BA) is known to reduce combat casualties, but the effects of BA mass and insulation on the physical performance of soldiers are less well documented. Until recently, the emphasis has been increasing personal protection, with little consideration of the adverse impacts on human performance. The purpose of this work was to use sweating thermal manikin and mathematical modeling techniques to quantify the tradeoff between increased BA protection, the accompanying mass, and thermal effects on human performance. Using a sweating thermal manikin, total insulation (IT, clo) and vapor permeability indexes (im) were measured for a baseline clothing ensemble with and without one of seven increasingly protective U.S. Army BA configurations. Using mathematical modeling, predictions were made of thermal impact on humans wearing each configuration while working in hot/dry (desert), hot/humid (jungle), and temperate environmental conditions. In nearly still air (0.4 m/s), IT ranged from 1.57 to 1.63 clo and im from 0.35 to 0.42 for the seven BA conditions, compared to IT and im values of 1.37 clo and 0.45 respectively, for the baseline condition (no BA). Biophysical assessments and predictive modeling show a quantifiable relationship exists among increased protection and increased thermal burden and decreased work capacity. This approach enables quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between ballistic protection, thermal-work strain, and physical work performance.

An ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers for fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines.

PubMed

Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K

2016-04-01

In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NIMEFI: gene regulatory network inference using multiple ensemble feature importance algorithms.

PubMed

Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan

2014-01-01

One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available.

Constructing better classifier ensemble based on weighted accuracy and diversity measure.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaodong; Wong, Derek F; Chao, Lidia S

2014-01-01

A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases.

Constructing Better Classifier Ensemble Based on Weighted Accuracy and Diversity Measure

PubMed Central

Chao, Lidia S.

2014-01-01

A weighted accuracy and diversity (WAD) method is presented, a novel measure used to evaluate the quality of the classifier ensemble, assisting in the ensemble selection task. The proposed measure is motivated by a commonly accepted hypothesis; that is, a robust classifier ensemble should not only be accurate but also different from every other member. In fact, accuracy and diversity are mutual restraint factors; that is, an ensemble with high accuracy may have low diversity, and an overly diverse ensemble may negatively affect accuracy. This study proposes a method to find the balance between accuracy and diversity that enhances the predictive ability of an ensemble for unknown data. The quality assessment for an ensemble is performed such that the final score is achieved by computing the harmonic mean of accuracy and diversity, where two weight parameters are used to balance them. The measure is compared to two representative measures, Kappa-Error and GenDiv, and two threshold measures that consider only accuracy or diversity, with two heuristic search algorithms, genetic algorithm, and forward hill-climbing algorithm, in ensemble selection tasks performed on 15 UCI benchmark datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that the WAD measure is superior to others in most cases. PMID:24672402

Summary statistics in the attentional blink.

PubMed

McNair, Nicolas A; Goodbourn, Patrick T; Shone, Lauren T; Harris, Irina M

2017-01-01

We used the attentional blink (AB) paradigm to investigate the processing stage at which extraction of summary statistics from visual stimuli ("ensemble coding") occurs. Experiment 1 examined whether ensemble coding requires attentional engagement with the items in the ensemble. Participants performed two sequential tasks on each trial: gender discrimination of a single face (T1) and estimating the average emotional expression of an ensemble of four faces (or of a single face, as a control condition) as T2. Ensemble coding was affected by the AB when the tasks were separated by a short temporal lag. In Experiment 2, the order of the tasks was reversed to test whether ensemble coding requires more working-memory resources, and therefore induces a larger AB, than estimating the expression of a single face. Each condition produced a similar magnitude AB in the subsequent gender-discrimination T2 task. Experiment 3 additionally investigated whether the previous results were due to participants adopting a subsampling strategy during the ensemble-coding task. Contrary to this explanation, we found different patterns of performance in the ensemble-coding condition and a condition in which participants were instructed to focus on only a single face within an ensemble. Taken together, these findings suggest that ensemble coding emerges automatically as a result of the deployment of attentional resources across the ensemble of stimuli, prior to information being consolidated in working memory.

Electrostatic Evaluation of the Propellant Handlers Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogue, Michael D.; Calle, Carlos I.; Buhler, Charles

2006-01-01

The Self-Contained Atmospheric Protective Ensemble (SCAPE) used in propellant handling at NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has recently completed a series of tests to determine its electrostatic properties of the coverall fabric used in the Propellant Handlers Ensemble (PHE). Understanding these electrostatic properties are fundamental to ensuring safe operations when working with flammable rocket propellants such as hydrazine, methyl hydrazine, and unsymmetrical dimethyl hydrazine. These tests include surface resistivity, charge decay, triboelectric charging, and flame incendivity. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of these tests on the current PHE as well as new fabrics and materials being evaluated for the next generation of PHE.

In Silico Design of Smart Binders to Anthrax PA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

nanosecond(ns) molecular dynamics simulation in the NPT ensemble (constant particle number, pressure, and temperature) at 300K, with the CHARMM force...protective antigen (PA). Before the docking runs, the DS23 peptide was simulated using molecular dynamics to generate an ensemble of structures...structure), we do not see a large amount of structural change when using molecular dynamics after Rosetta docking. We note that this RMSD does not take

Genetic programming based ensemble system for microarray data classification.

PubMed

Liu, Kun-Hong; Tong, Muchenxuan; Xie, Shu-Tong; Yee Ng, Vincent To

2015-01-01

Recently, more and more machine learning techniques have been applied to microarray data analysis. The aim of this study is to propose a genetic programming (GP) based new ensemble system (named GPES), which can be used to effectively classify different types of cancers. Decision trees are deployed as base classifiers in this ensemble framework with three operators: Min, Max, and Average. Each individual of the GP is an ensemble system, and they become more and more accurate in the evolutionary process. The feature selection technique and balanced subsampling technique are applied to increase the diversity in each ensemble system. The final ensemble committee is selected by a forward search algorithm, which is shown to be capable of fitting data automatically. The performance of GPES is evaluated using five binary class and six multiclass microarray datasets, and results show that the algorithm can achieve better results in most cases compared with some other ensemble systems. By using elaborate base classifiers or applying other sampling techniques, the performance of GPES may be further improved.

Genetic Programming Based Ensemble System for Microarray Data Classification

PubMed Central

Liu, Kun-Hong; Tong, Muchenxuan; Xie, Shu-Tong; Yee Ng, Vincent To

2015-01-01

Recently, more and more machine learning techniques have been applied to microarray data analysis. The aim of this study is to propose a genetic programming (GP) based new ensemble system (named GPES), which can be used to effectively classify different types of cancers. Decision trees are deployed as base classifiers in this ensemble framework with three operators: Min, Max, and Average. Each individual of the GP is an ensemble system, and they become more and more accurate in the evolutionary process. The feature selection technique and balanced subsampling technique are applied to increase the diversity in each ensemble system. The final ensemble committee is selected by a forward search algorithm, which is shown to be capable of fitting data automatically. The performance of GPES is evaluated using five binary class and six multiclass microarray datasets, and results show that the algorithm can achieve better results in most cases compared with some other ensemble systems. By using elaborate base classifiers or applying other sampling techniques, the performance of GPES may be further improved. PMID:25810748

A Single Column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davies, Laura; Jakob, Christian; Cheung, K.

2013-06-27

Single column models (SCM) are useful testbeds for investigating the parameterisation schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best-estimate large-scale data prescribed. One method to address this uncertainty is to perform ensemble simulations of the SCM. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best-estimate product. This data is then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and 2 cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best-estimatemore » simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best-estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Systematic differences are also apparent in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables. The ensemble is further used to investigate relations between cloud variables and precipitation identifying large differences between CRM and SCM. This study highlights that additional information can be gained by performing ensemble simulations enhancing the information derived from models using the more traditional single best-estimate simulation.« less

Heterogeneous Ensemble Combination Search Using Genetic Algorithm for Class Imbalanced Data Classification.

PubMed

Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Noman, Nasimul; Berretta, Regina; Moscato, Pablo

2016-01-01

Classification of datasets with imbalanced sample distributions has always been a challenge. In general, a popular approach for enhancing classification performance is the construction of an ensemble of classifiers. However, the performance of an ensemble is dependent on the choice of constituent base classifiers. Therefore, we propose a genetic algorithm-based search method for finding the optimum combination from a pool of base classifiers to form a heterogeneous ensemble. The algorithm, called GA-EoC, utilises 10 fold-cross validation on training data for evaluating the quality of each candidate ensembles. In order to combine the base classifiers decision into ensemble's output, we used the simple and widely used majority voting approach. The proposed algorithm, along with the random sub-sampling approach to balance the class distribution, has been used for classifying class-imbalanced datasets. Additionally, if a feature set was not available, we used the (α, β) - k Feature Set method to select a better subset of features for classification. We have tested GA-EoC with three benchmarking datasets from the UCI-Machine Learning repository, one Alzheimer's disease dataset and a subset of the PubFig database of Columbia University. In general, the performance of the proposed method on the chosen datasets is robust and better than that of the constituent base classifiers and many other well-known ensembles. Based on our empirical study we claim that a genetic algorithm is a superior and reliable approach to heterogeneous ensemble construction and we expect that the proposed GA-EoC would perform consistently in other cases.

Can the PHS model (ISO7933) predict reasonable thermophysiological responses while wearing protective clothing in hot environments?

PubMed

Wang, Faming; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2011-02-01

In this paper, the prediction accuracy of the PHS (predicted heat strain) model on human physiological responses while wearing protective clothing ensembles was examined. Six human subjects (aged 29 ± 3 years) underwent three experimental trials in three different protective garments (clothing thermal insulation I(cl) ranges from 0.63 to 2.01 clo) in two hot environments (40 °C, relative humidities: 30% and 45%). The observed and predicted mean skin temperature, core body temperature and sweat rate were presented and statistically compared. A significant difference was found in the metabolic rate between FIRE (firefighting clothing) and HV (high visibility clothing) or MIL (military clothing) (p < 0.001). Also, the development of heart rate demonstrated the significant effects of the exposure time and clothing ensembles. In addition, the predicted evaporation rate during HV, MIL and FIRE was much lower than the experimental values. Hence, the current PHS model is not applicable for protective clothing with intrinsic thermal insulations above 1.0 clo. The results showed that the PHS model generated unreliable predictions on body core temperature when human subjects wore thick protective clothing such as firefighting clothing (I(cl) > 1.0 clo). The predicted mean skin temperatures in three clothing ensembles HV, MIL and FIRE were also outside the expected limits. Thus, there is a need for further extension for the clothing insulation validation range of the PHS model. It is recommended that the PHS model should be amended and validated by individual algorithms, physical or physiological parameters, and further subject studies.

Extracting foreground ensemble features to detect abnormal crowd behavior in intelligent video-surveillance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Yi-Tung; Wang, Shuenn-Jyi; Tsai, Chung-Hsien

2017-09-01

Public safety is a matter of national security and people's livelihoods. In recent years, intelligent video-surveillance systems have become important active-protection systems. A surveillance system that provides early detection and threat assessment could protect people from crowd-related disasters and ensure public safety. Image processing is commonly used to extract features, e.g., people, from a surveillance video. However, little research has been conducted on the relationship between foreground detection and feature extraction. Most current video-surveillance research has been developed for restricted environments, in which the extracted features are limited by having information from a single foreground; they do not effectively represent the diversity of crowd behavior. This paper presents a general framework based on extracting ensemble features from the foreground of a surveillance video to analyze a crowd. The proposed method can flexibly integrate different foreground-detection technologies to adapt to various monitored environments. Furthermore, the extractable representative features depend on the heterogeneous foreground data. Finally, a classification algorithm is applied to these features to automatically model crowd behavior and distinguish an abnormal event from normal patterns. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method's performance is both comparable to that of state-of-the-art methods and satisfies the requirements of real-time applications.

Hybrid fuzzy cluster ensemble framework for tumor clustering from biomolecular data.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiwen; Chen, Hantao; You, Jane; Han, Guoqiang; Li, Le

2013-01-01

Cancer class discovery using biomolecular data is one of the most important tasks for cancer diagnosis and treatment. Tumor clustering from gene expression data provides a new way to perform cancer class discovery. Most of the existing research works adopt single-clustering algorithms to perform tumor clustering is from biomolecular data that lack robustness, stability, and accuracy. To further improve the performance of tumor clustering from biomolecular data, we introduce the fuzzy theory into the cluster ensemble framework for tumor clustering from biomolecular data, and propose four kinds of hybrid fuzzy cluster ensemble frameworks (HFCEF), named as HFCEF-I, HFCEF-II, HFCEF-III, and HFCEF-IV, respectively, to identify samples that belong to different types of cancers. The difference between HFCEF-I and HFCEF-II is that they adopt different ensemble generator approaches to generate a set of fuzzy matrices in the ensemble. Specifically, HFCEF-I applies the affinity propagation algorithm (AP) to perform clustering on the sample dimension and generates a set of fuzzy matrices in the ensemble based on the fuzzy membership function and base samples selected by AP. HFCEF-II adopts AP to perform clustering on the attribute dimension, generates a set of subspaces, and obtains a set of fuzzy matrices in the ensemble by performing fuzzy c-means on subspaces. Compared with HFCEF-I and HFCEF-II, HFCEF-III and HFCEF-IV consider the characteristics of HFCEF-I and HFCEF-II. HFCEF-III combines HFCEF-I and HFCEF-II in a serial way, while HFCEF-IV integrates HFCEF-I and HFCEF-II in a concurrent way. HFCEFs adopt suitable consensus functions, such as the fuzzy c-means algorithm or the normalized cut algorithm (Ncut), to summarize generated fuzzy matrices, and obtain the final results. The experiments on real data sets from UCI machine learning repository and cancer gene expression profiles illustrate that 1) the proposed hybrid fuzzy cluster ensemble frameworks work well on real data sets, especially biomolecular data, and 2) the proposed approaches are able to provide more robust, stable, and accurate results when compared with the state-of-the-art single clustering algorithms and traditional cluster ensemble approaches.

A Study of the Pedagogy of Selected Non-Western Musical Traditions in Collegiate World Music Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morford, James B.

2007-01-01

Music teachers are often influenced by pedagogical practices in the collegiate ensembles in which they performed. Opportunities to participate in collegiate world music ensembles have increased in recent decades; West African ensembles and steel bands represent the second and third most common of these in the United States. The absence of…

A further step toward an optimal ensemble of classifiers for peptide classification, a case study: HIV protease.

PubMed

Nanni, Loris; Lumini, Alessandra

2009-01-01

The focuses of this work are: to propose a novel method for building an ensemble of classifiers for peptide classification based on substitution matrices; to show the importance to select a proper set of the parameters of the classifiers that build the ensemble of learning systems. The HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem is here studied. The results obtained by a blind testing protocol are reported, the comparison with other state-of-the-art approaches, based on ensemble of classifiers, allows to quantify the performance improvement obtained by the systems proposed in this paper. The simulation based on experimentally determined protease cleavage data has demonstrated the success of these new ensemble algorithms. Particularly interesting it is to note that also if the HIV-1 protease cleavage site prediction problem is considered linearly separable we obtain the best performance using an ensemble of non-linear classifiers.

Active classifier selection for RGB-D object categorization using a Markov random field ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durner, Maximilian; Márton, Zoltán.; Hillenbrand, Ulrich; Ali, Haider; Kleinsteuber, Martin

2017-03-01

In this work, a new ensemble method for the task of category recognition in different environments is presented. The focus is on service robotic perception in an open environment, where the robot's task is to recognize previously unseen objects of predefined categories, based on training on a public dataset. We propose an ensemble learning approach to be able to flexibly combine complementary sources of information (different state-of-the-art descriptors computed on color and depth images), based on a Markov Random Field (MRF). By exploiting its specific characteristics, the MRF ensemble method can also be executed as a Dynamic Classifier Selection (DCS) system. In the experiments, the committee- and topology-dependent performance boost of our ensemble is shown. Despite reduced computational costs and using less information, our strategy performs on the same level as common ensemble approaches. Finally, the impact of large differences between datasets is analyzed.

Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

PubMed

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

2016-08-12

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Reduction of Used Memory Ensemble Kalman Filtering (RumEnKF): A data assimilation scheme for memory intensive, high performance computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hut, Rolf; Amisigo, Barnabas A.; Steele-Dunne, Susan; van de Giesen, Nick

2015-12-01

Reduction of Used Memory Ensemble Kalman Filtering (RumEnKF) is introduced as a variant on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). RumEnKF differs from EnKF in that it does not store the entire ensemble, but rather only saves the first two moments of the ensemble distribution. In this way, the number of ensemble members that can be calculated is less dependent on available memory, and mainly on available computing power (CPU). RumEnKF is developed to make optimal use of current generation super computer architecture, where the number of available floating point operations (flops) increases more rapidly than the available memory and where inter-node communication can quickly become a bottleneck. RumEnKF reduces the used memory compared to the EnKF when the number of ensemble members is greater than half the number of state variables. In this paper, three simple models are used (auto-regressive, low dimensional Lorenz and high dimensional Lorenz) to show that RumEnKF performs similarly to the EnKF. Furthermore, it is also shown that increasing the ensemble size has a similar impact on the estimation error from the three algorithms.

A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work.

PubMed

Hsu, Kuo-Wei

2017-01-01

Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

The Effect of Performing Ensemble Participation on the Ability to Perform and Perceive Expression in Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinney, Daryl W.

2004-01-01

This study compared collegiate subjects who had participated in high school performing ensembles (participants) with subjects who had not (non-participants) on their ability to perform expressively and to perceive expression in music. In Phase I, subjects (N = 56) were asked to perform three song selections, expressively and unexpressively, using…

NIMEFI: Gene Regulatory Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance Algorithms

PubMed Central

Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan

2014-01-01

One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available. PMID:24667482

77 FR 47117 - Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Protective Ensemble Standard, Certification...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-07

... (at www.justnet.org ) three draft documents related to Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear... until September 21, 2012. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For further information, see www.justnet.org , or contact David Otterson by telephone at 301-519-5498 or by email at [email protected]org...

Currency crisis indication by using ensembles of support vector machine classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Nor Azuana; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Wooi, Hooy Chee

2014-07-01

There are many methods that had been experimented in the analysis of currency crisis. However, not all methods could provide accurate indications. This paper introduces an ensemble of classifiers by using Support Vector Machine that's never been applied in analyses involving currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the indication accuracy. The proposed ensemble classifiers' performances are measured using percentage of accuracy, root mean squared error (RMSE), area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and Type II error. The performances of an ensemble of Support Vector Machine classifiers are compared with the single Support Vector Machine classifier and both of classifiers are tested on the data set from 27 countries with 12 macroeconomic indicators for each country. From our analyses, the results show that the ensemble of Support Vector Machine classifiers outperforms single Support Vector Machine classifier on the problem involving indicating a currency crisis in terms of a range of standard measures for comparing the performance of classifiers.

Expansion of effective wet bulb globe temperature for vapor impermeable protective clothing.

PubMed

Sakoi, Tomonori; Mochida, Tohru; Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Sawada, Shin-Ichi; Horiba, Yosuke; Kuwabara, Kohei

2018-01-01

The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is an effective measure for risk screening to prevent heat dISOrders. However, a heat risk evaluation by WBGT requires adjustments depending on the clothing. In this study, we proposed a new effective WBGT (WBGT eff * ) for general vapor permeable clothing ensembles and vapor impermeable protective clothing that is applicable to occupants engaged in moderate intensity work with a metabolic heat production value of around 174W/m 2 . WBGT eff * enables the conversion of heat stress into the scale experienced by the occupant dressed in the basic clothing ensemble (work clothes) based on the heat balances for a human body. We confirmed that WBGT eff * was effective for expressing the critical thermal environments for the prescriptive zones for occupants wearing vapor impermeable protective clothing. Based on WBGT eff * , we succeeded in clarifying how the weights for natural wet bulb, globe, and air temperatures and the intercept changed depending on clothing properties and the surrounding environmental factors when heat stress is expressed by the weighted sum of natural wet bulb, globe, and air temperatures and the intercept. The weight of environmental temperatures (globe and air temperatures) for WBGT eff * for vapor impermeable protective clothing increased compared with that for general vapor permeable clothing, whereas that of the natural wet bulb temperature decreased. For WBGT eff * in outdoor conditions with a solar load, the weighting ratio of globe temperature increased and that of air temperature decreased with air velocity. Approximation equations of WBGT eff * were proposed for both general vapor permeable clothing ensembles and for vapor impermeable protective clothing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles. PMID:28255296

Multimodel hydrological ensemble forecasts for the Baskatong catchment in Canada using the TIGGE database.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian

2014-05-01

Adequate uncertainty assessment is an important issue in hydrological modelling. An important issue for hydropower producers is to obtain ensemble forecasts which truly grasp the uncertainty linked to upcoming streamflows. If properly assessed, this uncertainty can lead to optimal reservoir management and energy production (ex. [1]). The meteorological inputs to the hydrological model accounts for an important part of the total uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Since the creation of the THORPEX initiative and the TIGGE database, access to meteorological ensemble forecasts from nine agencies throughout the world have been made available. This allows for hydrological ensemble forecasts based on multiple meteorological ensemble forecasts. Consequently, both the uncertainty linked to the architecture of the meteorological model and the uncertainty linked to the initial condition of the atmosphere can be accounted for. The main objective of this work is to show that a weighted combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts based on different atmospheric models can lead to improved hydrological ensemble forecasts, for horizons from one to ten days. This experiment is performed for the Baskatong watershed, a head subcatchment of the Gatineau watershed in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Baskatong watershed is of great importance for hydro-power production, as it comprises the main reservoir for the Gatineau watershed, on which there are six hydropower plants managed by Hydro-Québec. Since the 70's, they have been using pseudo ensemble forecast based on deterministic meteorological forecasts to which variability derived from past forecasting errors is added. We use a combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts from different models (precipitation and temperature) as the main inputs for hydrological model HSAMI ([2]). The meteorological ensembles from eight of the nine agencies available through TIGGE are weighted according to their individual performance and combined to form a grand ensemble. Results show that the hydrological forecasts derived from the grand ensemble perform better than the pseudo ensemble forecasts actually used operationally at Hydro-Québec. References: [1] M. Verbunt, A. Walser, J. Gurtz et al., "Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 897-909, Aug, 2007. [2] N. Evora, Valorisation des prévisions météorologiques d'ensemble, Institu de recherceh d'Hydro-Québec 2005. [3] V. Fortin, Le modèle météo-apport HSAMI: historique, théorie et application, Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec, 2000.

Comparison of Basic and Ensemble Data Mining Methods in Predicting 5-Year Survival of Colorectal Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Kheirian, Sedigheh; Zali, Mohammad Reza

2017-12-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies and cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Given the importance of predicting the survival of CRC patients and the growing use of data mining methods, this study aims to compare the performance of models for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients using variety of basic and ensemble data mining methods. The CRC dataset from The Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases were used for prediction and comparative study of the base and ensemble data mining techniques. Feature selection methods were used to select predictor attributes for classification. The WEKA toolkit and MedCalc software were respectively utilized for creating and comparing the models. The obtained results showed that the predictive performance of developed models was altogether high (all greater than 90%). Overall, the performance of ensemble models was higher than that of basic classifiers and the best result achieved by ensemble voting model in terms of area under the ROC curve (AUC= 0.96). AUC Comparison of models showed that the ensemble voting method significantly outperformed all models except for two methods of Random Forest (RF) and Bayesian Network (BN) considered the overlapping 95% confidence intervals. This result may indicate high predictive power of these two methods along with ensemble voting for predicting 5-year survival of CRC patients.

Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles for breast cancer and Parkinson's disease prediction.

PubMed

Khan, Maryam Mahsal; Mendes, Alexandre; Chalup, Stephan K

2018-01-01

Wavelet Neural Networks are a combination of neural networks and wavelets and have been mostly used in the area of time-series prediction and control. Recently, Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks have been employed to develop cancer prediction models. The present study proposes to use ensembles of Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks. The search for a high quality ensemble is directed by a fitness function that incorporates the accuracy of the classifiers both independently and as part of the ensemble itself. The ensemble approach is tested on three publicly available biomedical benchmark datasets, one on Breast Cancer and two on Parkinson's disease, using a 10-fold cross-validation strategy. Our experimental results show that, for the first dataset, the performance was similar to previous studies reported in literature. On the second dataset, the Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles performed better than all previous methods. The third dataset is relatively new and this study is the first to report benchmark results.

Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles for breast cancer and Parkinson’s disease prediction

PubMed Central

Mendes, Alexandre; Chalup, Stephan K.

2018-01-01

Wavelet Neural Networks are a combination of neural networks and wavelets and have been mostly used in the area of time-series prediction and control. Recently, Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks have been employed to develop cancer prediction models. The present study proposes to use ensembles of Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Networks. The search for a high quality ensemble is directed by a fitness function that incorporates the accuracy of the classifiers both independently and as part of the ensemble itself. The ensemble approach is tested on three publicly available biomedical benchmark datasets, one on Breast Cancer and two on Parkinson’s disease, using a 10-fold cross-validation strategy. Our experimental results show that, for the first dataset, the performance was similar to previous studies reported in literature. On the second dataset, the Evolutionary Wavelet Neural Network ensembles performed better than all previous methods. The third dataset is relatively new and this study is the first to report benchmark results. PMID:29420578

One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

2015-04-01

Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN performance showed that wet basins are more easily modelled than dry basins. Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) Efficiency criterion was used to evaluate the performance of the models. Test results showed that in 9 of the 12 basins, the mean sub-ensembles performance was better than the one presented by Vos (2013). Furthermore, in 55 of 72 cases (6 NN structures x 12 basins) the mean sub-ensemble performance was better than the best individual performance, and in 10 basins the performance of the mean super-ensemble was better than the best individual super-ensemble member. As well, it was identified that members of ESN and L-ESN sub-ensembles have very similar and good performance values. Regarding the mean super-ensemble performance, we obtained an average gain in performance of 17%, and found that PSS preserves sub-ensemble members from different NN structures, indicating the pertinence of diversity in the super-ensemble. Moreover, it was demonstrated that around 100 predictors from the different structures are enough to optimize the super-ensemble. Although sub-ensembles of FFNN-SCE showed unstable performances, FFNN-SCE members were picked-up several times in the final predictor selection. References Anctil, F., M. Filion, and J. Tournebize (2009). "A neural network experiment on the simulation of daily nitrate-nitrogen and suspended sediment fluxes from a small agricultural catchment". In: Ecol. Model. 220.6, pp. 879-887. Arora, V. K. (2002). "The use of the aridity index to assess climate change effect on annual runoff". In: J. Hydrol. 265.164, pp. 164 -177 . Brochero, D., F. Anctil, and C. Gagn'e (2011). "Simplifying a hydrological ensemble prediction system with a backward greedy selection of members Part 1: Optimization criteria". In: Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15.11, pp. 3307-3325. Duan, Q., J. Schaake, V. Andr'eassian, S. Franks, G. Goteti, H. Gupta, Y. Gusev, F. Habets, A. Hall, L. Hay, T. Hogue, M. Huang, G. Leavesley, X. Liang, O. Nasonova, J. Noilhan, L. Oudin, S. Sorooshian, T. Wagener, and E. Wood (2006). "Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): An overview of science strategy and major results from the second and third workshops". In: J. Hydrol. 320.12, pp. 3-17. Duan, Q., V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian (1993). "Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global minimization". In: J. Optimiz. Theory App. 76.3, pp. 501-521. Hagan, M. T., H. B. Demuth, and M. Beale (1996). Neural network design . 1st ed. PWS Publishing Co., p. 730. Kuncheva, L. I. (2004). Combining Pattern Classifiers: Methods and Algorithms . Wiley-Interscience, p. 350. Leontaritis, I. and S. Billings (1985). "Input-output parametric models for non-linear systems Part I: deterministic non-linear systems". In: International Journal of Control 41.2, pp. 303-328. Lukosevicius, M. and H. Jaeger (2009). "Reservoir computing approaches to recurrent neural network training". In: Computer Science Review 3.3, pp. 127-149. McKee, T., N. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales . In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. Vos, N. J. de (2013). "Echo state networks as an alternative to traditional artificial neural networks in rainfall-runoff modelling". In: Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17.1, pp. 253-267. Weins, T., R. Burton, G. Schoenau, and D. Bitner (2008). Recursive Generalized Neural Networks (RGNN) for the Modeling of a Load Sensing Pump. In: ASME Joint Conference on Fluid Power, Transmission and Control.

Assessment in Performance-Based Secondary Music Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pellegrino, Kristen; Conway, Colleen M.; Russell, Joshua A.

2015-01-01

After sharing research findings about grading and assessment practices in secondary music ensemble classes, we offer examples of commonly used assessment tools (ratings scale, checklist, rubric) for the performance ensemble. Then, we explore the various purposes of assessment in performance-based music courses: (1) to meet state, national, and…

The Role of the Conductor's Goal Orientation and Use of Shared Performance Cues on Collegiate Instrumentalists' Motivational Beliefs and Performance in Large Musical Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Wendy K.; Kitsantas, Anastasia

2013-01-01

This study examined the effects of the conductor's goal orientation (mastery vs. performance) and use of shared performance cues (basic vs. interpretive vs. expressive) on instrumentalists' self-efficacy, collective efficacy, attributions, and performance. Eighty-one college instrumentalists from two musical ensembles participated in the study. It…

Molecular activity prediction by means of supervised subspace projection based ensembles of classifiers.

PubMed

Cerruela García, G; García-Pedrajas, N; Luque Ruiz, I; Gómez-Nieto, M Á

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a method for molecular activity prediction in QSAR studies using ensembles of classifiers constructed by means of two supervised subspace projection methods, namely nonparametric discriminant analysis (NDA) and hybrid discriminant analysis (HDA). We studied the performance of the proposed ensembles compared to classical ensemble methods using four molecular datasets and eight different models for the representation of the molecular structure. Using several measures and statistical tests for classifier comparison, we observe that our proposal improves the classification results with respect to classical ensemble methods. Therefore, we show that ensembles constructed using supervised subspace projections offer an effective way of creating classifiers in cheminformatics.

Heterogeneous Ensemble Combination Search Using Genetic Algorithm for Class Imbalanced Data Classification

PubMed Central

Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Noman, Nasimul; Berretta, Regina; Moscato, Pablo

2016-01-01

Classification of datasets with imbalanced sample distributions has always been a challenge. In general, a popular approach for enhancing classification performance is the construction of an ensemble of classifiers. However, the performance of an ensemble is dependent on the choice of constituent base classifiers. Therefore, we propose a genetic algorithm-based search method for finding the optimum combination from a pool of base classifiers to form a heterogeneous ensemble. The algorithm, called GA-EoC, utilises 10 fold-cross validation on training data for evaluating the quality of each candidate ensembles. In order to combine the base classifiers decision into ensemble’s output, we used the simple and widely used majority voting approach. The proposed algorithm, along with the random sub-sampling approach to balance the class distribution, has been used for classifying class-imbalanced datasets. Additionally, if a feature set was not available, we used the (α, β) − k Feature Set method to select a better subset of features for classification. We have tested GA-EoC with three benchmarking datasets from the UCI-Machine Learning repository, one Alzheimer’s disease dataset and a subset of the PubFig database of Columbia University. In general, the performance of the proposed method on the chosen datasets is robust and better than that of the constituent base classifiers and many other well-known ensembles. Based on our empirical study we claim that a genetic algorithm is a superior and reliable approach to heterogeneous ensemble construction and we expect that the proposed GA-EoC would perform consistently in other cases. PMID:26764911

Measuring social interaction in music ensembles

PubMed Central

D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

2016-01-01

Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. PMID:27069054

Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

PubMed

Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

2016-05-05

Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances. © 2016 The Author(s).

Performance analysis of a Principal Component Analysis ensemble classifier for Emotiv headset P300 spellers.

PubMed

Elsawy, Amr S; Eldawlatly, Seif; Taher, Mohamed; Aly, Gamal M

2014-01-01

The current trend to use Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) with mobile devices mandates the development of efficient EEG data processing methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the performance of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ensemble classifier for P300-based spellers. We recorded EEG data from multiple subjects using the Emotiv neuroheadset in the context of a classical oddball P300 speller paradigm. We compare the performance of the proposed ensemble classifier to the performance of traditional feature extraction and classifier methods. Our results demonstrate the capability of the PCA ensemble classifier to classify P300 data recorded using the Emotiv neuroheadset with an average accuracy of 86.29% on cross-validation data. In addition, offline testing of the recorded data reveals an average classification accuracy of 73.3% that is significantly higher than that achieved using traditional methods. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of the parameters of the P300 speller paradigm on the performance of the method.

Relationships among Ensemble Participation, Private Instruction, and Aural Skill Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, William V.; Elliott, Charles A.

1980-01-01

This study sought to determine the relationships that exist among junior high school students' participation in school performing ensembles, those skills measured by the Gaston Test of Musicality, and the number of years of private study on the piano or on ensemble instruments. (Author/SJL)

Fine-Tuning Your Ensemble's Jazz Style.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Antonio J.

1991-01-01

Proposes instructional strategies for directors of jazz groups, including guidelines for developing of skills necessary for good performance. Includes effective methods for positive changes in ensemble style. Addresses jazz group problems such as beat, tempo, staying in tune, wind power, and solo/ensemble lines. Discusses percussionists, bassists,…

Strongly coupling a cavity to inhomogeneous ensembles of emitters: Potential for long-lived solid-state quantum memories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diniz, I.; Portolan, S.; Auffeves, A.

2011-12-15

We investigate theoretically the coupling of a cavity mode to a continuous distribution of emitters. We discuss the influence of the emitters' inhomogeneous broadening on the existence and on the coherence properties of the polaritonic peaks. We find that their coherence depends crucially on the shape of the distribution and not only on its width. Under certain conditions the coupling to the cavity protects the polaritonic states from inhomogeneous broadening, resulting in a longer storage time for a quantum memory based on emitter ensembles. When two different ensembles of emitters are coupled to the resonator, they support a peculiar collectivemore » dark state, which is also very attractive for the storage of quantum information.« less

General Procedure for Protective Cooling and Equipment Evaluations Relative to Heat and Cold Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

climatic chamber housing the manikin. The most widely accepted test procedures for the operation of a TM are published by the American Society for...describes measurement of the clo value of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic chamber controlled...Clothing Using a Sweating Manikin” (1) measures the im of a complete clothing ensemble. It requires a TM surface temperature of 35ºC and a climatic

A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

Improving precipitation forecast with hybrid 3DVar and time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin

2017-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.

Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto; Angélil, Oliver; Lehmann, Karsten; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2018-02-01

End users studying impacts and risks caused by human-induced climate change are often presented with large multi-model ensembles of climate projections whose composition and size are arbitrarily determined. An efficient and versatile method that finds a subset which maintains certain key properties from the full ensemble is needed, but very little work has been done in this area. Therefore, users typically make their own somewhat subjective subset choices and commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate. However, different climate model simulations cannot necessarily be regarded as independent estimates due to the presence of duplicated code and shared development history. Here, we present an efficient and flexible tool that makes better use of the ensemble as a whole by finding a subset with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments. This approach is illustrated with one set of optimisation criteria but we also highlight the flexibility of cost functions, depending on the focus of different users. The technique is useful for a range of applications that, for example, minimise present-day bias to obtain an accurate ensemble mean, reduce dependence in ensemble spread, maximise future spread, ensure good performance of individual models in an ensemble, reduce the ensemble size while maintaining important ensemble characteristics, or optimise several of these at the same time. As in any calibration exercise, the final ensemble is sensitive to the metric, observational product, and pre-processing steps used.

MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

Multiple-instance ensemble learning for hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ergul, Ugur; Bilgin, Gokhan

2017-10-01

An ensemble framework for multiple-instance (MI) learning (MIL) is introduced for use in hyperspectral images (HSIs) by inspiring the bagging (bootstrap aggregation) method in ensemble learning. Ensemble-based bagging is performed by a small percentage of training samples, and MI bags are formed by a local windowing process with variable window sizes on selected instances. In addition to bootstrap aggregation, random subspace is another method used to diversify base classifiers. The proposed method is implemented using four MIL classification algorithms. The classifier model learning phase is carried out with MI bags, and the estimation phase is performed over single-test instances. In the experimental part of the study, two different HSIs that have ground-truth information are used, and comparative results are demonstrated with state-of-the-art classification methods. In general, the MI ensemble approach produces more compact results in terms of both diversity and error compared to equipollent non-MIL algorithms.

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning.

PubMed

LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya

2016-05-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree.

AUC-Maximizing Ensembles through Metalearning

PubMed Central

LeDell, Erin; van der Laan, Mark J.; Peterson, Maya

2016-01-01

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is often used to measure the performance of an estimator in binary classification problems. An AUC-maximizing classifier can have significant advantages in cases where ranking correctness is valued or if the outcome is rare. In a Super Learner ensemble, maximization of the AUC can be achieved by the use of an AUC-maximining metalearning algorithm. We discuss an implementation of an AUC-maximization technique that is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem. We also evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of different nonlinear optimization algorithms to maximize the cross-validated AUC of the ensemble fit. The results provide evidence that AUC-maximizing metalearners can, and often do, out-perform non-AUC-maximizing metalearning methods, with respect to ensemble AUC. The results also demonstrate that as the level of imbalance in the training data increases, the Super Learner ensemble outperforms the top base algorithm by a larger degree. PMID:27227721

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao Xun

2011-01-01

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landelius, Tomas; Lindskog, Magnus; Körnich, Heiner; Andersson, Sandra

2018-04-01

In this article the performance for short-range solar radiation forecasts by the global deterministic and ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is compared with an ensemble of the regional mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME used by the national meteorological services in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Note however that only the control members and the ensemble means are included in the comparison. The models resolution differs considerably with 18 km for the ECMWF ensemble, 9 km for the ECMWF deterministic model, and 2.5 km for the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble. The models share the same radiation code. It turns out that they all underestimate systematically the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) for clear-sky conditions. Except for this shortcoming, the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model shows the best agreement with the distribution of observed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and DNI values. During mid-day the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble mean performs best. The control member of the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble also scores better than the global deterministic ECMWF model. This is an interesting result since mesoscale models have so far not shown good results when compared to the ECMWF models. Three days with clear, mixed and cloudy skies are used to illustrate the possible added value of a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that in these cases the mesoscale ensemble could provide decision support to a grid operator in terms of forecasts of both the amount of solar power and its probabilities.

Rapid acquisition of novel interface control by small ensembles of arbitrarily selected primary motor cortex neurons

PubMed Central

Law, Andrew J.; Rivlis, Gil

2014-01-01

Pioneering studies demonstrated that novel degrees of freedom could be controlled individually by directly encoding the firing rate of single motor cortex neurons, without regard to each neuron's role in controlling movement of the native limb. In contrast, recent brain-computer interface work has emphasized decoding outputs from large ensembles that include substantially more neurons than the number of degrees of freedom being controlled. To bridge the gap between direct encoding by single neurons and decoding output from large ensembles, we studied monkeys controlling one degree of freedom by comodulating up to four arbitrarily selected motor cortex neurons. Performance typically exceeded random quite early in single sessions and then continued to improve to different degrees in different sessions. We therefore examined factors that might affect performance. Performance improved with larger ensembles. In contrast, other factors that might have reflected preexisting synaptic architecture—such as the similarity of preferred directions—had little if any effect on performance. Patterns of comodulation among ensemble neurons became more consistent across trials as performance improved over single sessions. Compared with the ensemble neurons, other simultaneously recorded neurons showed less modulation. Patterns of voluntarily comodulated firing among small numbers of arbitrarily selected primary motor cortex (M1) neurons thus can be found and improved rapidly, with little constraint based on the normal relationships of the individual neurons to native limb movement. This rapid flexibility in relationships among M1 neurons may in part underlie our ability to learn new movements and improve motor skill. PMID:24920030

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP.

PubMed

Shim, Yoonsik; Philippides, Andrew; Staras, Kevin; Husbands, Phil

2016-10-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture.

Unsupervised Learning in an Ensemble of Spiking Neural Networks Mediated by ITDP

PubMed Central

Staras, Kevin

2016-01-01

We propose a biologically plausible architecture for unsupervised ensemble learning in a population of spiking neural network classifiers. A mixture of experts type organisation is shown to be effective, with the individual classifier outputs combined via a gating network whose operation is driven by input timing dependent plasticity (ITDP). The ITDP gating mechanism is based on recent experimental findings. An abstract, analytically tractable model of the ITDP driven ensemble architecture is derived from a logical model based on the probabilities of neural firing events. A detailed analysis of this model provides insights that allow it to be extended into a full, biologically plausible, computational implementation of the architecture which is demonstrated on a visual classification task. The extended model makes use of a style of spiking network, first introduced as a model of cortical microcircuits, that is capable of Bayesian inference, effectively performing expectation maximization. The unsupervised ensemble learning mechanism, based around such spiking expectation maximization (SEM) networks whose combined outputs are mediated by ITDP, is shown to perform the visual classification task well and to generalize to unseen data. The combined ensemble performance is significantly better than that of the individual classifiers, validating the ensemble architecture and learning mechanisms. The properties of the full model are analysed in the light of extensive experiments with the classification task, including an investigation into the influence of different input feature selection schemes and a comparison with a hierarchical STDP based ensemble architecture. PMID:27760125

Ensemble perception in autism spectrum disorder: Member-identification versus mean-discrimination.

PubMed

Van der Hallen, Ruth; Lemmens, Lisa; Steyaert, Jean; Noens, Ilse; Wagemans, Johan

2017-07-01

To efficiently represent the outside world our brain compresses sets of similar items into a summarized representation, a phenomenon known as ensemble perception. While most studies on ensemble perception investigate this perceptual mechanism in typically developing (TD) adults, more recently, researchers studying perceptual organization in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have turned their attention toward ensemble perception. The current study is the first to investigate the use of ensemble perception for size in children with and without ASD (N = 42, 8-16 years). We administered a pair of tasks pioneered by Ariely [2001] evaluating both member-identification and mean-discrimination. In addition, we varied the distribution types of our sets to allow a more detailed evaluation of task performance. Results show that, overall, both groups performed similarly in the member-identification task, a test of "local perception," and similarly in the mean identification task, a test of "gist perception." However, in both tasks performance of the TD group was affected more strongly by the degree of stimulus variability in the set, than performance of the ASD group. These findings indicate that both TD children and children with ASD use ensemble statistics to represent a set of similar items, illustrating the fundamental nature of ensemble coding in visual perception. Differences in sensitivity to stimulus variability between both groups are discussed in relation to recent theories of information processing in ASD (e.g., increased sampling, decreased priors, increased precision). Autism Res 2017. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Autism Res 2017, 10: 1291-1299. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Measuring ensemble interdependence in a string quartet through analysis of multidimensional performance data

PubMed Central

Papiotis, Panos; Marchini, Marco; Perez-Carrillo, Alfonso; Maestre, Esteban

2014-01-01

In a musical ensemble such as a string quartet, the musicians interact and influence each other's actions in several aspects of the performance simultaneously in order to achieve a common aesthetic goal. In this article, we present and evaluate a computational approach for measuring the degree to which these interactions exist in a given performance. We recorded a number of string quartet exercises under two experimental conditions (solo and ensemble), acquiring both audio and bowing motion data. Numerical features in the form of time series were extracted from the data as performance descriptors representative of four distinct dimensions of the performance: Intonation, Dynamics, Timbre, and Tempo. Four different interdependence estimation methods (two linear and two nonlinear) were applied to the extracted features in order to assess the overall level of interdependence between the four musicians. The obtained results suggest that it is possible to correctly discriminate between the two experimental conditions by quantifying interdependence between the musicians in each of the studied performance dimensions; the nonlinear methods appear to perform best for most of the numerical features tested. Moreover, by using the solo recordings as a reference to which the ensemble recordings are contrasted, it is feasible to compare the amount of interdependence that is established between the musicians in a given performance dimension across all exercises, and relate the results to the underlying goal of the exercise. We discuss our findings in the context of ensemble performance research, the current limitations of our approach, and the ways in which it can be expanded and consolidated. PMID:25228894

Imprinting and Recalling Cortical Ensembles

PubMed Central

Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S.; Yuste, Rafael

2017-01-01

Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent emergent building blocks of neural circuits. They could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations in visual cortex of awake mice generates artificially induced ensembles which recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexistent ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. PMID:27516599

Guidelines for Use of Personal Protective Equipment by Law Enforcement Personnel During a Terrorist Chemical Agent Incident. Revision 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-12-01

mask increases the protection to the neck area that is often left exposed without one. Testing of protective ensembles, as discussed later in this...protective mask. Most often the area of the neck under the chin is left exposed . Since chemical agents are also effective through skin absorption it...suit. Less heat buildup due to air transfer. Can be exposed to water making it the preferred type of suit for operations in support of

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radar-based ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

The Influence of Body Mass on Physical Fitness Test Performance in Male Firefighter Applicants.

PubMed

Phillips, Devin B; Scarlett, Michael P; Petersen, Stewart R

2017-11-01

The influence of body mass on test performance was investigated in 414 male firefighter applicants who completed a maximal treadmill test and five task-simulation tests while dressed in fire protective ensemble. Subjects were assigned to six mass categories from less than 70 kg to more than 110 kg, in 10 kg increments (n = 69 in each). Treadmill performance was lower (P < 0.05) in the two heaviest groups. Charged hose advance time was slower in the two lightest groups. The lightest group had slower times for weighted sled pull, forcible entry, and victim rescue tests. The heaviest group was slower on the ladder climb test. Lighter subjects had a small advantage in endurance-oriented tests while higher mass appeared to improve performance slightly in strength-oriented tests. However, mass explained only 4% to 19% of the variance in performance.

Heat strain and heat stress for workers wearing protective suits at a hazardous waste site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paull, J.M.; Rosenthal, F.S.

1987-05-01

In order to evaluate the effects of heat stress when full body protective suits are worn, heart rates, oral temperatures and environmental parameters were measured for five unacclimatized male workers (25-33 years of age) who performed sampling activities during hazardous waste clean-up operations. The protective ensembles included laminated PVC-Tyvec chemical resistant hood suits with rubber boots, gloves, full facepiece dual cartridge respirators and hard hats. For comparison, measurements also were performed when the men worked at a similar level of activity while they wore ordinary work clothes. A comparison of the heart rates for the men working with and withoutmore » suits indicated that wearing the suits imposed a heat stress equivalent to adding 6/sup 0/ to 11/sup 0/C (11/sup 0/ to 20/sup 0/F) to the ambient WBGT index. A similar result was obtained by calculating the WBGT in the microclimate inside the suits and comparing it to the ambient WBGT. These results indicate the following: 1) there exists a significant risk of heat injury during hazardous waste work when full body protective clothing is worn, and 2) threshold limit values for heat stress established by the ACGIH must be lowered substantially before extending them to cover workers under these conditions.« less

Ensemble Classifier Strategy Based on Transient Feature Fusion in Electronic Nose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagheri, Mohammad Ali; Montazer, Gholam Ali

2011-09-01

In this paper, we test the performance of several ensembles of classifiers and each base learner has been trained on different types of extracted features. Experimental results show the potential benefits introduced by the usage of simple ensemble classification systems for the integration of different types of transient features.

Decimated Input Ensembles for Improved Generalization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Recently, many researchers have demonstrated that using classifier ensembles (e.g., averaging the outputs of multiple classifiers before reaching a classification decision) leads to improved performance for many difficult generalization problems. However, in many domains there are serious impediments to such "turnkey" classification accuracy improvements. Most notable among these is the deleterious effect of highly correlated classifiers on the ensemble performance. One particular solution to this problem is generating "new" training sets by sampling the original one. However, with finite number of patterns, this causes a reduction in the training patterns each classifier sees, often resulting in considerably worsened generalization performance (particularly for high dimensional data domains) for each individual classifier. Generally, this drop in the accuracy of the individual classifier performance more than offsets any potential gains due to combining, unless diversity among classifiers is actively promoted. In this work, we introduce a method that: (1) reduces the correlation among the classifiers; (2) reduces the dimensionality of the data, thus lessening the impact of the 'curse of dimensionality'; and (3) improves the classification performance of the ensemble.

The Effect of Conductor Expressivity on Ensemble Performance Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Steven J.; Price, Harry E.; Geiger, Carla G.; Cornacchio, Rachel A.

2009-01-01

In this study, the authors examined whether a conductor's use of high-expressivity or low-expressivity techniques affected evaluations of ensemble performances that were identical across conducting conditions. Two conductors each conducted two 1-minute parallel excerpts from Percy Grainger's "Walking Tune." Each directed one excerpt…

A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains.

PubMed

Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Karplus, P Andrew

2015-09-01

Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a "consistency check" of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. © 2015 The Protein Society.

Residue-level global and local ensemble-ensemble comparisons of protein domains

PubMed Central

Clark, Sarah A; Tronrud, Dale E; Andrew Karplus, P

2015-01-01

Many methods of protein structure generation such as NMR-based solution structure determination and template-based modeling do not produce a single model, but an ensemble of models consistent with the available information. Current strategies for comparing ensembles lose information because they use only a single representative structure. Here, we describe the ENSEMBLATOR and its novel strategy to directly compare two ensembles containing the same atoms to identify significant global and local backbone differences between them on per-atom and per-residue levels, respectively. The ENSEMBLATOR has four components: eePREP (ee for ensemble-ensemble), which selects atoms common to all models; eeCORE, which identifies atoms belonging to a cutoff-distance dependent common core; eeGLOBAL, which globally superimposes all models using the defined core atoms and calculates for each atom the two intraensemble variations, the interensemble variation, and the closest approach of members of the two ensembles; and eeLOCAL, which performs a local overlay of each dipeptide and, using a novel measure of local backbone similarity, reports the same four variations as eeGLOBAL. The combination of eeGLOBAL and eeLOCAL analyses identifies the most significant differences between ensembles. We illustrate the ENSEMBLATOR's capabilities by showing how using it to analyze NMR ensembles and to compare NMR ensembles with crystal structures provides novel insights compared to published studies. One of these studies leads us to suggest that a “consistency check” of NMR-derived ensembles may be a useful analysis step for NMR-based structure determinations in general. The ENSEMBLATOR 1.0 is available as a first generation tool to carry out ensemble-ensemble comparisons. PMID:26032515

Predicting protein function and other biomedical characteristics with heterogeneous ensembles

PubMed Central

Whalen, Sean; Pandey, Om Prakash

2015-01-01

Prediction problems in biomedical sciences, including protein function prediction (PFP), are generally quite difficult. This is due in part to incomplete knowledge of the cellular phenomenon of interest, the appropriateness and data quality of the variables and measurements used for prediction, as well as a lack of consensus regarding the ideal predictor for specific problems. In such scenarios, a powerful approach to improving prediction performance is to construct heterogeneous ensemble predictors that combine the output of diverse individual predictors that capture complementary aspects of the problems and/or datasets. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of such heterogeneous ensembles, derived from stacking and ensemble selection methods, for addressing PFP and other similar biomedical prediction problems. Deeper analysis of these results shows that the superior predictive ability of these methods, especially stacking, can be attributed to their attention to the following aspects of the ensemble learning process: (i) better balance of diversity and performance, (ii) more effective calibration of outputs and (iii) more robust incorporation of additional base predictors. Finally, to make the effective application of heterogeneous ensembles to large complex datasets (big data) feasible, we present DataSink, a distributed ensemble learning framework, and demonstrate its sound scalability using the examined datasets. DataSink is publicly available from https://github.com/shwhalen/datasink. PMID:26342255

Ensemble coding of face identity is present but weaker in congenital prosopagnosia.

PubMed

Robson, Matthew K; Palermo, Romina; Jeffery, Linda; Neumann, Markus F

2018-03-01

Individuals with congenital prosopagnosia (CP) are impaired at identifying individual faces but do not appear to show impairments in extracting the average identity from a group of faces (known as ensemble coding). However, possible deficits in ensemble coding in a previous study (CPs n = 4) may have been masked because CPs relied on pictorial (image) cues rather than identity cues. Here we asked whether a larger sample of CPs (n = 11) would show intact ensemble coding of identity when availability of image cues was minimised. Participants viewed a "set" of four faces and then judged whether a subsequent individual test face, either an exemplar or a "set average", was in the preceding set. Ensemble coding occurred when matching (vs. mismatching) averages were mistakenly endorsed as set members. We assessed both image- and identity-based ensemble coding, by varying whether test faces were either the same or different images of the identities in the set. CPs showed significant ensemble coding in both tasks, indicating that their performance was independent of image cues. As a group, CPs' ensemble coding was weaker than controls in both tasks, consistent with evidence that perceptual processing of face identity is disrupted in CP. This effect was driven by CPs (n= 3) who, in addition to having impaired face memory, also performed particularly poorly on a measure of face perception (CFPT). Future research, using larger samples, should examine whether deficits in ensemble coding may be restricted to CPs who also have substantial face perception deficits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spirituality and Synagogue Music: A Case Study of Two Synagogue Music Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shansky, Carol

2012-01-01

Participation in community music ensembles is an important and popular form of music education--with members of ensembles that perform within religious services having the opportunity of experiencing a possible extra dimension of a spiritual experience. Thus the intent of this study was to survey adult choir and band members at Temple Emeth in…

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

2011-01-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Homar, Víctor; Romero, Romu; Lombardi, Gabriele; Mancini, Marco

2016-08-01

Analysis of ensemble forecasting strategies, which can provide a tangible backing for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean region, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international HyMeX programme. Here, we examine two severe hydrometeorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area and for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed. Indeed, flood damage have exponentially increased during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. First, we examine how land-use changes due to urban development have altered the hydrological response to intense rainfalls. Second, we test a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme precipitation are difficult to be predicted due to uncertainties arising from the numeric weather prediction (NWP) physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state; however, two hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. No substantial differences in skill have been found between both ensemble strategies when considering an enhanced diversity of IC/LBCs for the perturbed initial conditions ensemble. Furthermore, no additional benefits have been found by considering more frequent LBCs in a mixed physics ensemble, as ensemble spread seems to be reduced. These findings could help to design the most appropriate ensemble strategies before these hydrometeorological extremes, given the computational cost of running such advanced HEPSs for operational purposes.

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.

Using Meteorological Analogues for Reordering Postprocessed Precipitation Ensembles in Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellier, Joseph; Bontron, Guillaume; Zin, Isabella

2017-12-01

Meteorological ensemble forecasts are nowadays widely used as input of hydrological models for probabilistic streamflow forecasting. These forcings are frequently biased and have to be statistically postprocessed, using most of the time univariate techniques that apply independently to individual locations, lead times and weather variables. Postprocessed ensemble forecasts therefore need to be reordered so as to reconstruct suitable multivariate dependence structures. The Schaake shuffle and ensemble copula coupling are the two most popular methods for this purpose. This paper proposes two adaptations of them that make use of meteorological analogues for reconstructing spatiotemporal dependence structures of precipitation forecasts. Performances of the original and adapted techniques are compared through a multistep verification experiment using real forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This experiment evaluates not only multivariate precipitation forecasts but also the corresponding streamflow forecasts that derive from hydrological modeling. Results show that the relative performances of the different reordering methods vary depending on the verification step. In particular, the standard Schaake shuffle is found to perform poorly when evaluated on streamflow. This emphasizes the crucial role of the precipitation spatiotemporal dependence structure in hydrological ensemble forecasting.

"Play It Again, Billy, but This Time with More Mistakes": Divergent Improvisation Activities for the Jazz Ensemble

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Healy, Daniel J.

2014-01-01

The jazz ensemble represents an important performance opportunity in many school music programs. Due to the cultural history of jazz as an improvisatory art form, school jazz ensemble directors must address methods of teaching improvisation concepts to young students. Progress has been made in the field of prescribed improvisation activities and…

Enhancing the Popular Music Ensemble Workshop and Maximising Student Potential through the Integration of Creativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Richard

2015-01-01

Ensemble work is a key part of any performance-based popular music course and involves students replicating existing music or playing "covers". The creative process in popular music is a collaborative one and the ensemble workshop can be utilised to facilitate active learning and develop musical creativity within a group setting. This is…

An Ensemble Recentering Kalman Filter with an Application to Argo Temperature Data Assimilation into the NASA GEOS-5 Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.

2013-01-01

A two-step ensemble recentering Kalman filter (ERKF) analysis scheme is introduced. The algorithm consists of a recentering step followed by an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analysis step. The recentering step is formulated such as to adjust the prior distribution of an ensemble of model states so that the deviations of individual samples from the sample mean are unchanged but the original sample mean is shifted to the prior position of the most likely particle, where the likelihood of each particle is measured in terms of closeness to a chosen subset of the observations. The computational cost of the ERKF is essentially the same as that of a same size EnKF. The ERKF is applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into the OGCM component of an ensemble of NASA GEOS-5 coupled models. Unassimilated Argo salt data are used for validation. A surprisingly small number (16) of model trajectories is sufficient to significantly improve model estimates of salinity over estimates from an ensemble run without assimilation. The two-step algorithm also performs better than the EnKF although its performance is degraded in poorly observed regions.

Clustering cancer gene expression data by projective clustering ensemble

PubMed Central

Yu, Xianxue; Yu, Guoxian

2017-01-01

Gene expression data analysis has paramount implications for gene treatments, cancer diagnosis and other domains. Clustering is an important and promising tool to analyze gene expression data. Gene expression data is often characterized by a large amount of genes but with limited samples, thus various projective clustering techniques and ensemble techniques have been suggested to combat with these challenges. However, it is rather challenging to synergy these two kinds of techniques together to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem and to boost the performance of gene expression data clustering. In this paper, we employ a projective clustering ensemble (PCE) to integrate the advantages of projective clustering and ensemble clustering, and to avoid the dilemma of combining multiple projective clusterings. Our experimental results on publicly available cancer gene expression data show PCE can improve the quality of clustering gene expression data by at least 4.5% (on average) than other related techniques, including dimensionality reduction based single clustering and ensemble approaches. The empirical study demonstrates that, to further boost the performance of clustering cancer gene expression data, it is necessary and promising to synergy projective clustering with ensemble clustering. PCE can serve as an effective alternative technique for clustering gene expression data. PMID:28234920

Development of Super-Ensemble techniques for ocean analyses: the Mediterranean Sea case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistoia, Jenny; Pinardi, Nadia; Oddo, Paolo; Collins, Matthew; Korres, Gerasimos; Drillet, Yann

2017-04-01

Short-term ocean analyses for Sea Surface Temperature SST in the Mediterranean Sea can be improved by a statistical post-processing technique, called super-ensemble. This technique consists in a multi-linear regression algorithm applied to a Multi-Physics Multi-Model Super-Ensemble (MMSE) dataset, a collection of different operational forecasting analyses together with ad-hoc simulations produced by modifying selected numerical model parameterizations. A new linear regression algorithm based on Empirical Orthogonal Function filtering techniques is capable to prevent overfitting problems, even if best performances are achieved when we add correlation to the super-ensemble structure using a simple spatial filter applied after the linear regression. Our outcomes show that super-ensemble performances depend on the selection of an unbiased operator and the length of the learning period, but the quality of the generating MMSE dataset has the largest impact on the MMSE analysis Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) evaluated with respect to observed satellite SST. Lower RMSE analysis estimates result from the following choices: 15 days training period, an overconfident MMSE dataset (a subset with the higher quality ensemble members), and the least square algorithm being filtered a posteriori.

Being an iPadist

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randles, Clint

2013-01-01

This column offers the personal reflections of the author on being a member of the band Touch, an iPad performing ensemble composed of music education faculty members and doctoral students at the University of South Florida. The ensemble primarily performed its own arrangements of popular music selections from a number of genres including, but not…

Effects of Baton Usage on College Musicians' Perceptions of Ensemble Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silvey, Brian A.; Wacker, Aaron T.; Felder, Logan

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of baton usage on college musicians' perceptions of ensemble performance. Two conductors were videotaped while conducting a 1-minute excerpt from either a technical ("Pathfinder of Panama," John Philip Sousa) or lyrical ("Seal Lullaby," Eric Whitacre) piece of concert…

Optical ensemble analysis of intraocular lens performance through a simulated clinical trial with ZEMAX.

PubMed

Zhao, Huawei

2009-01-01

A ZEMAX model was constructed to simulate a clinical trial of intraocular lenses (IOLs) based on a clinically oriented Monte Carlo ensemble analysis using postoperative ocular parameters. The purpose of this model is to test the feasibility of streamlining and optimizing both the design process and the clinical testing of IOLs. This optical ensemble analysis (OEA) is also validated. Simulated pseudophakic eyes were generated by using the tolerancing and programming features of ZEMAX optical design software. OEA methodology was verified by demonstrating that the results of clinical performance simulations were consistent with previously published clinical performance data using the same types of IOLs. From these results we conclude that the OEA method can objectively simulate the potential clinical trial performance of IOLs.

Real­-Time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Wsa-Enlil+Cone Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; LaSota, J. A.

2014-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions. Real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL+cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). To estimate the effect of uncertainties in determining CME input parameters on arrival time predictions, a distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameter sets are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest, including a probability distribution of CME arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 38 CME events in 2013-2014. For 28 of the ensemble runs containing hits, the observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 14 runs (half). The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the 28 ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time, an average absolute error of 10.0 hours (RMSE=11.4 hours) was found for all 28 ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling sysem was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME. The parameter sensitivity study suggests future directions for the system, such as running ensembles using various magnetogram inputs to the WSA model.

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, L.; Jakob, C.; Cheung, K.; DelGenio, A.; Hill, A.; Hume, T.; Keane, R. J.; Komori, T.; Larson, V. E.; Lin, Y.;

Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

2012-01-01

SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

A two-model hydrologic ensemble prediction of hydrograph: case study from the upper Nysa Klodzka river basin (SW Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, Tomasz; Mizinski, Bartlomiej

2016-04-01

The HydroProg system has been elaborated in frame of the research project no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland and is steadily producing multimodel ensemble predictions of hydrograph in real time. Although there are six ensemble members available at present, the longest record of predictions and their statistics is available for two data-based models (uni- and multivariate autoregressive models). Thus, we consider 3-hour predictions of water levels, with lead times ranging from 15 to 180 minutes, computed every 15 minutes since August 2013 for the Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland) using the two approaches and their two-model ensemble. Since the launch of the HydroProg system there have been 12 high flow episodes, and the objective of this work is to present the performance of the two-model ensemble in the process of forecasting these events. For a sake of brevity, we limit our investigation to a single gauge located at the Nysa Klodzka river in the town of Klodzko, which is centrally located in the studied basin. We identified certain regular scenarios of how the models perform in predicting the high flows in Klodzko. At the initial phase of the high flow, well before the rising limb of hydrograph, the two-model ensemble is found to provide the most skilful prognoses of water levels. However, while forecasting the rising limb of hydrograph, either the two-model solution or the vector autoregressive model offers the best predictive performance. In addition, it is hypothesized that along with the development of the rising limb phase, the vector autoregression becomes the most skilful approach amongst the scrutinized ones. Our simple two-model exercise confirms that multimodel hydrologic ensemble predictions cannot be treated as universal solutions suitable for forecasting the entire high flow event, but their superior performance may hold only for certain phases of a high flow.

Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne

2015-04-01

In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.

Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2013-09-01

The ECMWF temperature and precipitation ensemble reforecasts are evaluated for biases in the mean, spread and forecast probabilities, and how these biases propagate to streamflow ensemble forecasts. The forcing ensembles are subsequently post-processed to reduce bias and increase skill, and to investigate whether this leads to improved streamflow ensemble forecasts. Multiple post-processing techniques are used: quantile-to-quantile transform, linear regression with an assumption of bivariate normality and logistic regression. Both the raw and post-processed ensembles are run through a hydrologic model of the river Rhine to create streamflow ensembles. The results are compared using multiple verification metrics and skill scores: relative mean error, Brier skill score and its decompositions, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and its decomposition, and the ROC score. Verification of the streamflow ensembles is performed at multiple spatial scales: relatively small headwater basins, large tributaries and the Rhine outlet at Lobith. The streamflow ensembles are verified against simulated streamflow, in order to isolate the effects of biases in the forcing ensembles and any improvements therein. The results indicate that the forcing ensembles contain significant biases, and that these cascade to the streamflow ensembles. Some of the bias in the forcing ensembles is unconditional in nature; this was resolved by a simple quantile-to-quantile transform. Improvements in conditional bias and skill of the forcing ensembles vary with forecast lead time, amount, and spatial scale, but are generally moderate. The translation to streamflow forecast skill is further muted, and several explanations are considered, including limitations in the modelling of the space-time covariability of the forcing ensembles and the presence of storages.

Multiple-Swarm Ensembles: Improving the Predictive Power and Robustness of Predictive Models and Its Use in Computational Biology.

PubMed

Alves, Pedro; Liu, Shuang; Wang, Daifeng; Gerstein, Mark

2018-01-01

Machine learning is an integral part of computational biology, and has already shown its use in various applications, such as prognostic tests. In the last few years in the non-biological machine learning community, ensembling techniques have shown their power in data mining competitions such as the Netflix challenge; however, such methods have not found wide use in computational biology. In this work, we endeavor to show how ensembling techniques can be applied to practical problems, including problems in the field of bioinformatics, and how they often outperform other machine learning techniques in both predictive power and robustness. Furthermore, we develop a methodology of ensembling, Multi-Swarm Ensemble (MSWE) by using multiple particle swarm optimizations and demonstrate its ability to further enhance the performance of ensembles.

Using ensemble of classifiers for predicting HIV protease cleavage sites in proteins.

PubMed

Nanni, Loris; Lumini, Alessandra

2009-03-01

The focus of this work is the use of ensembles of classifiers for predicting HIV protease cleavage sites in proteins. Due to the complex relationships in the biological data, several recent works show that often ensembles of learning algorithms outperform stand-alone methods. We show that the fusion of approaches based on different encoding models can be useful for improving the performance of this classification problem. In particular, in this work four different feature encodings for peptides are described and tested. An extensive evaluation on a large dataset according to a blind testing protocol is reported which demonstrates how different feature extraction methods and classifiers can be combined for obtaining a robust and reliable system. The comparison with other stand-alone approaches allows quantifying the performance improvement obtained by the ensembles proposed in this work.

Impact of Bias-Correction Type and Conditional Training on Bayesian Model Averaging over the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Brian A. Colle; Joseph J. Charney

2012-01-01

The performance of a multimodel ensemble over the northeast United States is evaluated before and after applying bias correction and Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The 13-member Stony Brook University (SBU) ensemble at 0000 UTC is combined with the 21-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system at 2100 UTC....

Prediction of dosage-based parameters from the puff dispersion of airborne materials in urban environments using the CFD-RANS methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efthimiou, G. C.; Andronopoulos, S.; Bartzis, J. G.

2018-02-01

One of the key issues of recent research on the dispersion inside complex urban environments is the ability to predict dosage-based parameters from the puff release of an airborne material from a point source in the atmospheric boundary layer inside the built-up area. The present work addresses the question of whether the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology can be used to predict ensemble-average dosage-based parameters that are related with the puff dispersion. RANS simulations with the ADREA-HF code were, therefore, performed, where a single puff was released in each case. The present method is validated against the data sets from two wind-tunnel experiments. In each experiment, more than 200 puffs were released from which ensemble-averaged dosage-based parameters were calculated and compared to the model's predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated using scatter plots and three validation metrics: fractional bias, normalized mean square error, and factor of two. The model presented a better performance for the temporal parameters (i.e., ensemble-average times of puff arrival, peak, leaving, duration, ascent, and descent) than for the ensemble-average dosage and peak concentration. The majority of the obtained values of validation metrics were inside established acceptance limits. Based on the obtained model performance indices, the CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is able to predict the ensemble-average temporal quantities related to transient emissions of airborne material in urban areas within the range of the model performance acceptance criteria established in the literature. The CFD-RANS methodology as implemented in the code ADREA-HF is also able to predict the ensemble-average dosage, but the dosage results should be treated with some caution; as in one case, the observed ensemble-average dosage was under-estimated slightly more than the acceptance criteria. Ensemble-average peak concentration was systematically underpredicted by the model to a degree higher than the allowable by the acceptance criteria, in 1 of the 2 wind-tunnel experiments. The model performance depended on the positions of the examined sensors in relation to the emission source and the buildings configuration. The work presented in this paper was carried out (partly) within the scope of COST Action ES1006 "Evaluation, improvement, and guidance for the use of local-scale emergency prediction and response tools for airborne hazards in built environments".

JuPOETs: a constrained multiobjective optimization approach to estimate biochemical model ensembles in the Julia programming language.

PubMed

Bassen, David M; Vilkhovoy, Michael; Minot, Mason; Butcher, Jonathan T; Varner, Jeffrey D

2017-01-25

Ensemble modeling is a promising approach for obtaining robust predictions and coarse grained population behavior in deterministic mathematical models. Ensemble approaches address model uncertainty by using parameter or model families instead of single best-fit parameters or fixed model structures. Parameter ensembles can be selected based upon simulation error, along with other criteria such as diversity or steady-state performance. Simulations using parameter ensembles can estimate confidence intervals on model variables, and robustly constrain model predictions, despite having many poorly constrained parameters. In this software note, we present a multiobjective based technique to estimate parameter or models ensembles, the Pareto Optimal Ensemble Technique in the Julia programming language (JuPOETs). JuPOETs integrates simulated annealing with Pareto optimality to estimate ensembles on or near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We demonstrate JuPOETs on a suite of multiobjective problems, including test functions with parameter bounds and system constraints as well as for the identification of a proof-of-concept biochemical model with four conflicting training objectives. JuPOETs identified optimal or near optimal solutions approximately six-fold faster than a corresponding implementation in Octave for the suite of test functions. For the proof-of-concept biochemical model, JuPOETs produced an ensemble of parameters that gave both the mean of the training data for conflicting data sets, while simultaneously estimating parameter sets that performed well on each of the individual objective functions. JuPOETs is a promising approach for the estimation of parameter and model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. JuPOETs can be adapted to solve many problem types, including mixed binary and continuous variable types, bilevel optimization problems and constrained problems without altering the base algorithm. JuPOETs is open source, available under an MIT license, and can be installed using the Julia package manager from the JuPOETs GitHub repository.

On the skill of various ensemble spread estimators for probabilistic short range wind forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kann, A.

2012-05-01

A variety of applications ranging from civil protection associated with severe weather to economical interests are heavily dependent on meteorological information. For example, a precise planning of the energy supply with a high share of renewables requires detailed meteorological information on high temporal and spatial resolution. With respect to wind power, detailed analyses and forecasts of wind speed are of crucial interest for the energy management. Although the applicability and the current skill of state-of-the-art probabilistic short range forecasts has increased during the last years, ensemble systems still show systematic deficiencies which limit its practical use. This paper presents methods to improve the ensemble skill of 10-m wind speed forecasts by combining deterministic information from a nowcasting system on very high horizontal resolution with uncertainty estimates from a limited area ensemble system. It is shown for a one month validation period that a statistical post-processing procedure (a modified non-homogeneous Gaussian regression) adds further skill to the probabilistic forecasts, especially beyond the nowcasting range after +6 h.

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Internal Consistency of Performance Evaluations as a Function of Music Expertise and Excerpt Familiarity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinney, Daryl W.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of music experience and excerpt familiarity on the internal consistency of performance evaluations. Participants included nonmusic majors who had not participated in high school music ensembles, nonmusic majors who had participated in high school music ensembles, music majors, and experts…

An optimized ensemble local mean decomposition method for fault detection of mechanical components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Li, Zhixiong; Hu, Chao; Chen, Shuai; Wang, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaogang

2017-03-01

Mechanical transmission systems have been widely adopted in most of industrial applications, and issues related to the maintenance of these systems have attracted considerable attention in the past few decades. The recently developed ensemble local mean decomposition (ELMD) method shows satisfactory performance in fault detection of mechanical components for preventing catastrophic failures and reducing maintenance costs. However, the performance of ELMD often heavily depends on proper selection of its model parameters. To this end, this paper proposes an optimized ensemble local mean decomposition (OELMD) method to determinate an optimum set of ELMD parameters for vibration signal analysis. In OELMD, an error index termed the relative root-mean-square error (Relative RMSE) is used to evaluate the decomposition performance of ELMD with a certain amplitude of the added white noise. Once a maximum Relative RMSE, corresponding to an optimal noise amplitude, is determined, OELMD then identifies optimal noise bandwidth and ensemble number based on the Relative RMSE and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), respectively. Thus, all three critical parameters of ELMD (i.e. noise amplitude and bandwidth, and ensemble number) are optimized by OELMD. The effectiveness of OELMD was evaluated using experimental vibration signals measured from three different mechanical components (i.e. the rolling bearing, gear and diesel engine) under faulty operation conditions.

The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

Selecting a Classification Ensemble and Detecting Process Drift in an Evolving Data Stream

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heredia-Langner, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Luke R.; Lin, Andy

2015-09-30

We characterize the commercial behavior of a group of companies in a common line of business using a small ensemble of classifiers on a stream of records containing commercial activity information. This approach is able to effectively find a subset of classifiers that can be used to predict company labels with reasonable accuracy. Performance of the ensemble, its error rate under stable conditions, can be characterized using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The behavior of the EWMA statistic can be used to monitor a record stream from the commercial network and determine when significant changes have occurred. Resultsmore » indicate that larger classification ensembles may not necessarily be optimal, pointing to the need to search the combinatorial classifier space in a systematic way. Results also show that current and past performance of an ensemble can be used to detect when statistically significant changes in the activity of the network have occurred. The dataset used in this work contains tens of thousands of high level commercial activity records with continuous and categorical variables and hundreds of labels, making classification challenging.« less

Development and Validation of a Computational Model Ensemble for the Early Detection of BCRP/ABCG2 Substrates during the Drug Design Stage.

PubMed

Gantner, Melisa E; Peroni, Roxana N; Morales, Juan F; Villalba, María L; Ruiz, María E; Talevi, Alan

2017-08-28

Breast Cancer Resistance Protein (BCRP) is an ATP-dependent efflux transporter linked to the multidrug resistance phenomenon in many diseases such as epilepsy and cancer and a potential source of drug interactions. For these reasons, the early identification of substrates and nonsubstrates of this transporter during the drug discovery stage is of great interest. We have developed a computational nonlinear model ensemble based on conformational independent molecular descriptors using a combined strategy of genetic algorithms, J48 decision tree classifiers, and data fusion. The best model ensemble consists in averaging the ranking of the 12 decision trees that showed the best performance on the training set, which also demonstrated a good performance for the test set. It was experimentally validated using the ex vivo everted rat intestinal sac model. Five anticonvulsant drugs classified as nonsubstrates for BRCP by the model ensemble were experimentally evaluated, and none of them proved to be a BCRP substrate under the experimental conditions used, thus confirming the predictive ability of the model ensemble. The model ensemble reported here is a potentially valuable tool to be used as an in silico ADME filter in computer-aided drug discovery campaigns intended to overcome BCRP-mediated multidrug resistance issues and to prevent drug-drug interactions.

Closing the Loop for Memory Prostheses: Detecting the Role of Hippocampal Neural Ensembles Using Nonlinear Models

PubMed Central

Hampson, Robert E.; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H.M.; Sweatt, Andrew J.; Riley, Mitchell R.; Goonawardena, Anushka V.; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Gerhardt, Greg A.; Berger, Theodore W.; Deadwyler, Sam A.

2012-01-01

A major factor involved in providing closed loop feedback for control of neural function is to understand how neural ensembles encode online information critical to the final behavioral endpoint. This issue was directly assessed in rats performing a short-term delay memory task in which successful encoding of task information is dependent upon specific spatiotemporal firing patterns recorded from ensembles of CA3 and CA1 hippocampal neurons. Such patterns, extracted by a specially designed nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear mathematical model, were used to predict successful performance online via a closed loop paradigm which regulated trial difficulty (time of retention) as a function of the “strength” of stimulus encoding. The significance of the MIMO model as a neural prosthesis has been demonstrated by substituting trains of electrical stimulation pulses to mimic these same ensemble firing patterns. This feature was used repeatedly to vary “normal” encoding as a means of understanding how neural ensembles can be “tuned” to mimic the inherent process of selecting codes of different strength and functional specificity. The capacity to enhance and tune hippocampal encoding via MIMO model detection and insertion of critical ensemble firing patterns shown here provides the basis for possible extension to other disrupted brain circuitry. PMID:22498704

High Performance Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Magnetic Resonance Force Microscopy

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-12

Micron- Size Ferromagnet . Physical Review Letters, 92(3) 037205 (2004) [22] A. Z. Genack and A. G. Redeld. Theory of nuclear spin diusion in a...perform spatially resolved scanned probe studies of spin dynamics in nanoscale ensembles of few electron spins of varying size . Our research culminated...perform spatially resolved scanned probe studies of spin dynamics in nanoscale ensembles of few electron spins of varying size . Our research culminated

Multi-Optimisation Consensus Clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jian; Swift, Stephen; Liu, Xiaohui

Ensemble Clustering has been developed to provide an alternative way of obtaining more stable and accurate clustering results. It aims to avoid the biases of individual clustering algorithms. However, it is still a challenge to develop an efficient and robust method for Ensemble Clustering. Based on an existing ensemble clustering method, Consensus Clustering (CC), this paper introduces an advanced Consensus Clustering algorithm called Multi-Optimisation Consensus Clustering (MOCC), which utilises an optimised Agreement Separation criterion and a Multi-Optimisation framework to improve the performance of CC. Fifteen different data sets are used for evaluating the performance of MOCC. The results reveal that MOCC can generate more accurate clustering results than the original CC algorithm.

Gold nanoclusters-Cu(2+) ensemble-based fluorescence turn-on and real-time assay for acetylcholinesterase activity and inhibitor screening.

PubMed

Sun, Jian; Yang, Xiurong

2015-12-15

Based on the specific binding of Cu(2+) ions to the 11-mercaptoundecanoic acid (11-MUA)-protected AuNCs with intense orange-red emission, we have proposed and constructed a novel fluorescent nanomaterials-metal ions ensemble at a nonfluorescence off-state. Subsequently, an AuNCs@11-MUA-Cu(2+) ensemble-based fluorescent chemosensor, which is amenable to convenient, sensitive, selective, turn-on and real-time assay of acetylcholinesterase (AChE), could be developed by using acetylthiocholine (ATCh) as the substrate. Herein, the sensing ensemble solution exhibits a marvelous fluorescent enhancement in the presence of AChE and ATCh, where AChE hydrolyzes its active substrate ATCh into thiocholine (TCh), and then TCh captures Cu(2+) from the ensemble, accompanied by the conversion from fluorescence off-state to on-state of the AuNCs. The AChE activity could be detected less than 0.05 mU/mL within a good linear range from 0.05 to 2.5 mU/mL. Our proposed fluorescence assay can be utilized to evaluate the AChE activity quantitatively in real biological sample, and furthermore to screen the inhibitor of AChE. As far as we know, the present study has reported the first analytical proposal for sensing AChE activity in real time by using a fluorescent nanomaterials-Cu(2+) ensemble or focusing on the Cu(2+)-triggered fluorescence quenching/recovery. This strategy paves a new avenue for exploring the biosensing applications of fluorescent AuNCs, and presents the prospect of AuNCs@11-MUA-Cu(2+) ensemble as versatile enzyme activity assay platforms by means of other appropriate substrates/analytes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EFS: an ensemble feature selection tool implemented as R-package and web-application.

PubMed

Neumann, Ursula; Genze, Nikita; Heider, Dominik

2017-01-01

Feature selection methods aim at identifying a subset of features that improve the prediction performance of subsequent classification models and thereby also simplify their interpretability. Preceding studies demonstrated that single feature selection methods can have specific biases, whereas an ensemble feature selection has the advantage to alleviate and compensate for these biases. The software EFS (Ensemble Feature Selection) makes use of multiple feature selection methods and combines their normalized outputs to a quantitative ensemble importance. Currently, eight different feature selection methods have been integrated in EFS, which can be used separately or combined in an ensemble. EFS identifies relevant features while compensating specific biases of single methods due to an ensemble approach. Thereby, EFS can improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability in subsequent binary classification models. EFS can be downloaded as an R-package from CRAN or used via a web application at http://EFS.heiderlab.de.

Ensemble gene function prediction database reveals genes important for complex I formation in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Hansen, Bjoern Oest; Meyer, Etienne H; Ferrari, Camilla; Vaid, Neha; Movahedi, Sara; Vandepoele, Klaas; Nikoloski, Zoran; Mutwil, Marek

2018-03-01

Recent advances in gene function prediction rely on ensemble approaches that integrate results from multiple inference methods to produce superior predictions. Yet, these developments remain largely unexplored in plants. We have explored and compared two methods to integrate 10 gene co-function networks for Arabidopsis thaliana and demonstrate how the integration of these networks produces more accurate gene function predictions for a larger fraction of genes with unknown function. These predictions were used to identify genes involved in mitochondrial complex I formation, and for five of them, we confirmed the predictions experimentally. The ensemble predictions are provided as a user-friendly online database, EnsembleNet. The methods presented here demonstrate that ensemble gene function prediction is a powerful method to boost prediction performance, whereas the EnsembleNet database provides a cutting-edge community tool to guide experimentalists. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

A study of fuzzy logic ensemble system performance on face recognition problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, A.; Lipinskiy, L.

2017-02-01

Some problems are difficult to solve by using a single intelligent information technology (IIT). The ensemble of the various data mining (DM) techniques is a set of models which are able to solve the problem by itself, but the combination of which allows increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole. Using the IIT ensembles can improve the reliability and efficiency of the final decision, since it emphasizes on the diversity of its components. The new method of the intellectual informational technology ensemble design is considered in this paper. It is based on the fuzzy logic and is designed to solve the classification and regression problems. The ensemble consists of several data mining algorithms: artificial neural network, support vector machine and decision trees. These algorithms and their ensemble have been tested by solving the face recognition problems. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection.

Quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers.

PubMed

Schuld, Maria; Petruccione, Francesco

2018-02-09

Quantum machine learning witnesses an increasing amount of quantum algorithms for data-driven decision making, a problem with potential applications ranging from automated image recognition to medical diagnosis. Many of those algorithms are implementations of quantum classifiers, or models for the classification of data inputs with a quantum computer. Following the success of collective decision making with ensembles in classical machine learning, this paper introduces the concept of quantum ensembles of quantum classifiers. Creating the ensemble corresponds to a state preparation routine, after which the quantum classifiers are evaluated in parallel and their combined decision is accessed by a single-qubit measurement. This framework naturally allows for exponentially large ensembles in which - similar to Bayesian learning - the individual classifiers do not have to be trained. As an example, we analyse an exponentially large quantum ensemble in which each classifier is weighed according to its performance in classifying the training data, leading to new results for quantum as well as classical machine learning.

Input Decimated Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Oza, Nikunj C.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Using an ensemble of classifiers instead of a single classifier has been shown to improve generalization performance in many pattern recognition problems. However, the extent of such improvement depends greatly on the amount of correlation among the errors of the base classifiers. Therefore, reducing those correlations while keeping the classifiers' performance levels high is an important area of research. In this article, we explore input decimation (ID), a method which selects feature subsets for their ability to discriminate among the classes and uses them to decouple the base classifiers. We provide a summary of the theoretical benefits of correlation reduction, along with results of our method on two underwater sonar data sets, three benchmarks from the Probenl/UCI repositories, and two synthetic data sets. The results indicate that input decimated ensembles (IDEs) outperform ensembles whose base classifiers use all the input features; randomly selected subsets of features; and features created using principal components analysis, on a wide range of domains.

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet-Proulx, Sébastien; Chimi Chiadjeu, Olivier; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; St-Hilaire, André

2017-11-01

Recent work demonstrated the value of water temperature forecasts to improve water resources allocation and highlighted the importance of quantifying their uncertainty adequately. In this study, we perform a multisite cascading ensemble assimilation of discharge and water temperature on the Nechako River (Canada) using particle filters. Hydrological and thermal initial conditions were provided to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled to a thermal module, using ensemble meteorological forecasts as inputs to produce 5 day ensemble thermal forecasts. Results show good performances of the particle filters with improvements of the accuracy of initial conditions by more than 65% compared to simulations without data assimilation for both the hydrological and the thermal component. All thermal forecasts returned continuous ranked probability scores under 0.8 °C when using a set of 40 initial conditions and meteorological forecasts comprising 20 members. A greater contribution of the initial conditions to the total uncertainty of the system for 1-dayforecasts is observed (mean ensemble spread = 1.1 °C) compared to meteorological forcings (mean ensemble spread = 0.6 °C). The inclusion of meteorological uncertainty is critical to maintain reliable forecasts and proper ensemble spread for lead times of 2 days and more. This work demonstrates the ability of the particle filters to properly update the initial conditions of a coupled hydrological and thermal model and offers insights regarding the contribution of two major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in thermal forecasts.

The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

2015-08-01

The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

Professional Notes: Creativity in the Jazz Ensemble--Let's Get away from the Written Jazz Solo

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Robert

2015-01-01

Performing jazz offers students the opportunity to participate in a unique group activity where notated passages are blended with exciting moments of improvisation. Expectations have risen over the years as middle and high school jazz ensembles have proved that they can perform at a very high level. This expectation however, has led to the…

Another Perspective: The iPad Is a REAL Musical Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, David A.

2014-01-01

This article looks at the iPad's role as a musical instrument through the lens of a live performance ensemble that performs primarily on iPads. It also offers an overview of a pedagogical model used by this ensemble, which emphasizes musician autonomy in small groups, where music is learned primarily through aural means and concerts are…

Protective measurement of the wave function of a single squeezed harmonic-oscillator state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alter, Orly; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa

1996-05-01

A scheme for the "protective measurement"

Deep biomarkers of human aging: Application of deep neural networks to biomarker development

PubMed Central

Putin, Evgeny; Mamoshina, Polina; Aliper, Alexander; Korzinkin, Mikhail; Moskalev, Alexey; Kolosov, Alexey; Ostrovskiy, Alexander; Cantor, Charles; Vijg, Jan; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2016-01-01

One of the major impediments in human aging research is the absence of a comprehensive and actionable set of biomarkers that may be targeted and measured to track the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions. In this study, we designed a modular ensemble of 21 deep neural networks (DNNs) of varying depth, structure and optimization to predict human chronological age using a basic blood test. To train the DNNs, we used over 60,000 samples from common blood biochemistry and cell count tests from routine health exams performed by a single laboratory and linked to chronological age and sex. The best performing DNN in the ensemble demonstrated 81.5 % epsilon-accuracy r = 0.90 with R2 = 0.80 and MAE = 6.07 years in predicting chronological age within a 10 year frame, while the entire ensemble achieved 83.5% epsilon-accuracy r = 0.91 with R2 = 0.82 and MAE = 5.55 years. The ensemble also identified the 5 most important markers for predicting human chronological age: albumin, glucose, alkaline phosphatase, urea and erythrocytes. To allow for public testing and evaluate real-life performance of the predictor, we developed an online system available at http://www.aging.ai. The ensemble approach may facilitate integration of multi-modal data linked to chronological age and sex that may lead to simple, minimally invasive, and affordable methods of tracking integrated biomarkers of aging in humans and performing cross-species feature importance analysis. PMID:27191382

Deep biomarkers of human aging: Application of deep neural networks to biomarker development.

PubMed

Putin, Evgeny; Mamoshina, Polina; Aliper, Alexander; Korzinkin, Mikhail; Moskalev, Alexey; Kolosov, Alexey; Ostrovskiy, Alexander; Cantor, Charles; Vijg, Jan; Zhavoronkov, Alex

2016-05-01

One of the major impediments in human aging research is the absence of a comprehensive and actionable set of biomarkers that may be targeted and measured to track the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions. In this study, we designed a modular ensemble of 21 deep neural networks (DNNs) of varying depth, structure and optimization to predict human chronological age using a basic blood test. To train the DNNs, we used over 60,000 samples from common blood biochemistry and cell count tests from routine health exams performed by a single laboratory and linked to chronological age and sex. The best performing DNN in the ensemble demonstrated 81.5 % epsilon-accuracy r = 0.90 with R(2) = 0.80 and MAE = 6.07 years in predicting chronological age within a 10 year frame, while the entire ensemble achieved 83.5% epsilon-accuracy r = 0.91 with R(2) = 0.82 and MAE = 5.55 years. The ensemble also identified the 5 most important markers for predicting human chronological age: albumin, glucose, alkaline phosphatase, urea and erythrocytes. To allow for public testing and evaluate real-life performance of the predictor, we developed an online system available at http://www.aging.ai. The ensemble approach may facilitate integration of multi-modal data linked to chronological age and sex that may lead to simple, minimally invasive, and affordable methods of tracking integrated biomarkers of aging in humans and performing cross-species feature importance analysis.

Thermal and cardiovascular strain imposed by motorcycle protective clothing under Australian summer conditions.

PubMed

de Rome, Liz; Taylor, Elizabeth A; Croft, Rodney J; Brown, Julie; Fitzharris, Michael; Taylor, Nigel A S

2016-04-01

Motorcycle protective clothing can be uncomfortably hot during summer, and this experiment was designed to evaluate the physiological significance of that burden. Twelve males participated in four, 90-min trials (cycling 30 W) across three environments (25, 30, 35 °C [all 40% relative humidity]). Clothing was modified between full and minimal injury protection. Both ensembles were tested at 25 °C, with only the more protective ensemble investigated at 30 and 35 °C. At 35 °C, auditory canal temperature rose at 0.02 °C min(-1) (SD 0.005), deviating from all other trials (p < 0.05). The thresholds for moderate (>38.5 °C) and profound hyperthermia (>40.0 °C) were predicted to occur within 105 min (SD 20.6) and 180 min (SD 33.0), respectively. Profound hyperthermia might eventuate in ~10 h at 30 °C, but should not occur at 25 °C. These outcomes demonstrate a need to enhance the heat dissipation capabilities of motorcycle clothing designed for summer use in hot climates, but without compromising impact protection. Practitioner's Summary: Motorcycle protective clothing can be uncomfortably hot during summer. This experiment was designed to evaluate the physiological significance of this burden across climatic states. In the heat, moderate (>38.5 °C) and profound hyperthermia (>40.0 °C) were predicted to occur within 105 and 180 min, respectively.

Evaluation of annual, global seismicity forecasts, including ensemble models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taroni, Matteo; Zechar, Jeremy; Marzocchi, Warner

2013-04-01

In 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of the Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) initiated a prototype global earthquake forecast experiment. Three models participated in this experiment for 2009, 2010 and 2011—each model forecast the number of earthquakes above magnitude 6 in 1x1 degree cells that span the globe. Here we use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed seismicity. We compare model performance with statistical tests and a new method based on the peer-to-peer gambling score. The results of the comparisons are used to build ensemble models that are a weighted combination of the individual models. Notably, in these experiments the ensemble model always performs significantly better than the single best-performing model. Our results indicate the following: i) time-varying forecasts, if not updated after each major shock, may not provide significant advantages with respect to time-invariant models in 1-year forecast experiments; ii) the spatial distribution seems to be the most important feature to characterize the different forecasting performances of the models; iii) the interpretation of consistency tests may be misleading because some good models may be rejected while trivial models may pass consistency tests; iv) a proper ensemble modeling seems to be a valuable procedure to get the best performing model for practical purposes.

A Statistical Description of Neural Ensemble Dynamics

PubMed Central

Long, John D.; Carmena, Jose M.

2011-01-01

The growing use of multi-channel neural recording techniques in behaving animals has produced rich datasets that hold immense potential for advancing our understanding of how the brain mediates behavior. One limitation of these techniques is they do not provide important information about the underlying anatomical connections among the recorded neurons within an ensemble. Inferring these connections is often intractable because the set of possible interactions grows exponentially with ensemble size. This is a fundamental challenge one confronts when interpreting these data. Unfortunately, the combination of expert knowledge and ensemble data is often insufficient for selecting a unique model of these interactions. Our approach shifts away from modeling the network diagram of the ensemble toward analyzing changes in the dynamics of the ensemble as they relate to behavior. Our contribution consists of adapting techniques from signal processing and Bayesian statistics to track the dynamics of ensemble data on time-scales comparable with behavior. We employ a Bayesian estimator to weigh prior information against the available ensemble data, and use an adaptive quantization technique to aggregate poorly estimated regions of the ensemble data space. Importantly, our method is capable of detecting changes in both the magnitude and structure of correlations among neurons missed by firing rate metrics. We show that this method is scalable across a wide range of time-scales and ensemble sizes. Lastly, the performance of this method on both simulated and real ensemble data is used to demonstrate its utility. PMID:22319486

Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2017-07-01

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

Subsurface characterization with localized ensemble Kalman filter employing adaptive thresholding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delijani, Ebrahim Biniaz; Pishvaie, Mahmoud Reza; Boozarjomehry, Ramin Bozorgmehry

2014-07-01

Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF, as a Monte Carlo sequential data assimilation method has emerged promisingly for subsurface media characterization during past decade. Due to high computational cost of large ensemble size, EnKF is limited to small ensemble set in practice. This results in appearance of spurious correlation in covariance structure leading to incorrect or probable divergence of updated realizations. In this paper, a universal/adaptive thresholding method is presented to remove and/or mitigate spurious correlation problem in the forecast covariance matrix. This method is, then, extended to regularize Kalman gain directly. Four different thresholding functions have been considered to threshold forecast covariance and gain matrices. These include hard, soft, lasso and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD) functions. Three benchmarks are used to evaluate the performances of these methods. These benchmarks include a small 1D linear model and two 2D water flooding (in petroleum reservoirs) cases whose levels of heterogeneity/nonlinearity are different. It should be noted that beside the adaptive thresholding, the standard distance dependant localization and bootstrap Kalman gain are also implemented for comparison purposes. We assessed each setup with different ensemble sets to investigate the sensitivity of each method on ensemble size. The results indicate that thresholding of forecast covariance yields more reliable performance than Kalman gain. Among thresholding function, SCAD is more robust for both covariance and gain estimation. Our analyses emphasize that not all assimilation cycles do require thresholding and it should be performed wisely during the early assimilation cycles. The proposed scheme of adaptive thresholding outperforms other methods for subsurface characterization of underlying benchmarks.

An Ensemble Method for Classifying Regional Disease Patterns of Diffuse Interstitial Lung Disease Using HRCT Images from Different Vendors.

PubMed

Jun, Sanghoon; Kim, Namkug; Seo, Joon Beom; Lee, Young Kyung; Lynch, David A

2017-12-01

We propose the use of ensemble classifiers to overcome inter-scanner variations in the differentiation of regional disease patterns in high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) images of diffuse interstitial lung disease patients obtained from different scanners. A total of 600 rectangular 20 × 20-pixel regions of interest (ROIs) on HRCT images obtained from two different scanners (GE and Siemens) and the whole lung area of 92 HRCT images were classified as one of six regional pulmonary disease patterns by two expert radiologists. Textual and shape features were extracted from each ROI and the whole lung parenchyma. For automatic classification, individual and ensemble classifiers were trained and tested with the ROI dataset. We designed the following three experimental sets: an intra-scanner study in which the training and test sets were from the same scanner, an integrated scanner study in which the data from the two scanners were merged, and an inter-scanner study in which the training and test sets were acquired from different scanners. In the ROI-based classification, the ensemble classifiers showed better (p < 0.001) accuracy (89.73%, SD = 0.43) than the individual classifiers (88.38%, SD = 0.31) in the integrated scanner test. The ensemble classifiers also showed partial improvements in the intra- and inter-scanner tests. In the whole lung classification experiment, the quantification accuracies of the ensemble classifiers with integrated training (49.57%) were higher (p < 0.001) than the individual classifiers (48.19%). Furthermore, the ensemble classifiers also showed better performance in both the intra- and inter-scanner experiments. We concluded that the ensemble classifiers provide better performance when using integrated scanner images.

Estimation of Uncertainties in the Global Distance Test (GDT_TS) for CASP Models.

PubMed

Li, Wenlin; Schaeffer, R Dustin; Otwinowski, Zbyszek; Grishin, Nick V

2016-01-01

The Critical Assessment of techniques for protein Structure Prediction (or CASP) is a community-wide blind test experiment to reveal the best accomplishments of structure modeling. Assessors have been using the Global Distance Test (GDT_TS) measure to quantify prediction performance since CASP3 in 1998. However, identifying significant score differences between close models is difficult because of the lack of uncertainty estimations for this measure. Here, we utilized the atomic fluctuations caused by structure flexibility to estimate the uncertainty of GDT_TS scores. Structures determined by nuclear magnetic resonance are deposited as ensembles of alternative conformers that reflect the structural flexibility, whereas standard X-ray refinement produces the static structure averaged over time and space for the dynamic ensembles. To recapitulate the structural heterogeneous ensemble in the crystal lattice, we performed time-averaged refinement for X-ray datasets to generate structural ensembles for our GDT_TS uncertainty analysis. Using those generated ensembles, our study demonstrates that the time-averaged refinements produced structure ensembles with better agreement with the experimental datasets than the averaged X-ray structures with B-factors. The uncertainty of the GDT_TS scores, quantified by their standard deviations (SDs), increases for scores lower than 50 and 70, with maximum SDs of 0.3 and 1.23 for X-ray and NMR structures, respectively. We also applied our procedure to the high accuracy version of GDT-based score and produced similar results with slightly higher SDs. To facilitate score comparisons by the community, we developed a user-friendly web server that produces structure ensembles for NMR and X-ray structures and is accessible at http://prodata.swmed.edu/SEnCS. Our work helps to identify the significance of GDT_TS score differences, as well as to provide structure ensembles for estimating SDs of any scores.

Pauci ex tanto numero: reducing redundancy in multi-model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

2013-02-01

We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date no attempts in this direction are documented within the air quality (AQ) community, although the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared biases among models will determine a biased ensemble, making therefore essential the errors of the ensemble members to be independent so that bias can cancel out. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated) we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores, that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

Monte Carlo replica-exchange based ensemble docking of protein conformations.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhe; Ehmann, Uwe; Zacharias, Martin

2017-05-01

A replica-exchange Monte Carlo (REMC) ensemble docking approach has been developed that allows efficient exploration of protein-protein docking geometries. In addition to Monte Carlo steps in translation and orientation of binding partners, possible conformational changes upon binding are included based on Monte Carlo selection of protein conformations stored as ordered pregenerated conformational ensembles. The conformational ensembles of each binding partner protein were generated by three different approaches starting from the unbound partner protein structure with a range spanning a root mean square deviation of 1-2.5 Å with respect to the unbound structure. Because MC sampling is performed to select appropriate partner conformations on the fly the approach is not limited by the number of conformations in the ensemble compared to ensemble docking of each conformer pair in ensemble cross docking. Although only a fraction of generated conformers was in closer agreement with the bound structure the REMC ensemble docking approach achieved improved docking results compared to REMC docking with only the unbound partner structures or using docking energy minimization methods. The approach has significant potential for further improvement in combination with more realistic structural ensembles and better docking scoring functions. Proteins 2017; 85:924-937. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

2018-04-01

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

A novel multi-variant epitope ensemble vaccine against avian leukosis virus subgroup J.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoyu; Zhou, Defang; Wang, Guihua; Huang, Libo; Zheng, Qiankun; Li, Chengui; Cheng, Ziqiang

2017-12-04

The hypervariable antigenicity and immunosuppressive features of avian leukosis virus subgroup J (ALV-J) has led to great challenges to develop effective vaccines. Epitope vaccine will be a perspective trend. Previously, we identified a variant antigenic neutralizing epitope in hypervariable region 1 (hr1) of ALV-J, N-LRDFIA/E/TKWKS/GDDL/HLIRPYVNQS-C. BLAST analysis showed that the mutation of A, E, T and H in this epitope cover 79% of all ALV-J strains. Base on this data, we designed a multi-variant epitope ensemble vaccine comprising the four mutation variants linked with glycine and serine. The recombinant multi-variant epitope gene was expressed in Escherichia coli BL21. The expressed protein of the variant multi-variant epitope gene can react with positive sera and monoclonal antibodies of ALV-J, while cannot react with ALV-J negative sera. The multi-variant epitope vaccine that conjugated Freund's adjuvant complete/incomplete showed high immunogenicity that reached the titer of 1:64,000 at 42 days post immunization and maintained the immune period for at least 126 days in SPF chickens. Further, we demonstrated that the antibody induced by the variant multi-variant ensemble epitope vaccine recognized and neutralized different ALV-J strains (NX0101, TA1, WS1, BZ1224 and BZ4). Protection experiment that was evaluated by clinical symptom, viral shedding, weight gain, gross and histopathology showed 100% chickens that inoculated the multi-epitope vaccine were well protected against ALV-J challenge. The result shows a promising multi-variant epitope ensemble vaccine against hypervariable viruses in animals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new strategy for snow-cover mapping using remote sensing data and ensemble based systems techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberge, S.; Chokmani, K.; De Sève, D.

2012-04-01

The snow cover plays an important role in the hydrological cycle of Quebec (Eastern Canada). Consequently, evaluating its spatial extent interests the authorities responsible for the management of water resources, especially hydropower companies. The main objective of this study is the development of a snow-cover mapping strategy using remote sensing data and ensemble based systems techniques. Planned to be tested in a near real-time operational mode, this snow-cover mapping strategy has the advantage to provide the probability of a pixel to be snow covered and its uncertainty. Ensemble systems are made of two key components. First, a method is needed to build an ensemble of classifiers that is diverse as much as possible. Second, an approach is required to combine the outputs of individual classifiers that make up the ensemble in such a way that correct decisions are amplified, and incorrect ones are cancelled out. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of ensemble systems to snow-cover mapping using remote sensing data. The chosen classifier is a sequential thresholds algorithm using NOAA-AVHRR data adapted to conditions over Eastern Canada. Its special feature is the use of a combination of six sequential thresholds varying according to the day in the winter season. Two versions of the snow-cover mapping algorithm have been developed: one is specific for autumn (from October 1st to December 31st) and the other for spring (from March 16th to May 31st). In order to build the ensemble based system, different versions of the algorithm are created by varying randomly its parameters. One hundred of the versions are included in the ensemble. The probability of a pixel to be snow, no-snow or cloud covered corresponds to the amount of votes the pixel has been classified as such by all classifiers. The overall performance of ensemble based mapping is compared to the overall performance of the chosen classifier, and also with ground observations at meteorological stations.

IDM-PhyChm-Ens: intelligent decision-making ensemble methodology for classification of human breast cancer using physicochemical properties of amino acids.

PubMed

Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Khan, Asifullah

2014-04-01

Development of an accurate and reliable intelligent decision-making method for the construction of cancer diagnosis system is one of the fast growing research areas of health sciences. Such decision-making system can provide adequate information for cancer diagnosis and drug discovery. Descriptors derived from physicochemical properties of protein sequences are very useful for classifying cancerous proteins. Recently, several interesting research studies have been reported on breast cancer classification. To this end, we propose the exploitation of the physicochemical properties of amino acids in protein primary sequences such as hydrophobicity (Hd) and hydrophilicity (Hb) for breast cancer classification. Hd and Hb properties of amino acids, in recent literature, are reported to be quite effective in characterizing the constituent amino acids and are used to study protein foldings, interactions, structures, and sequence-order effects. Especially, using these physicochemical properties, we observed that proline, serine, tyrosine, cysteine, arginine, and asparagine amino acids offer high discrimination between cancerous and healthy proteins. In addition, unlike traditional ensemble classification approaches, the proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method was developed by combining the decision spaces of a specific classifier trained on different feature spaces. The different feature spaces used were amino acid composition, split amino acid composition, and pseudo amino acid composition. Consequently, we have exploited different feature spaces using Hd and Hb properties of amino acids to develop an accurate method for classification of cancerous protein sequences. We developed ensemble classifiers using diverse learning algorithms such as random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) trained on different feature spaces. We observed that ensemble-RF, in case of cancer classification, performed better than ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN. Our analysis demonstrates that ensemble-RF, ensemble-SVM and ensemble-KNN are more effective than their individual counterparts. The proposed 'IDM-PhyChm-Ens' method has shown improved performance compared to existing techniques.

Protection against cold in prehospital care-thermal insulation properties of blankets and rescue bags in different wind conditions.

PubMed

Henriksson, Otto; Lundgren, J Peter; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar; Bjornstig, Ulf

2009-01-01

In a cold, wet, or windy environment, cold exposure can be considerable for an injured or ill person. The subsequent autonomous stress response initially will increase circulatory and respiratory demands, and as body core temperature declines, the patient's condition might deteriorate. Therefore, the application of adequate insulation to reduce cold exposure and prevent body core cooling is an important part of prehospital primary care, but recommendations for what should be used in the field mostly depend on tradition and experience, not on scientific evidence. The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal insulation properties in different wind conditions of 12 different blankets and rescue bags commonly used by prehospital rescue and ambulance services. The thermal manikin and the selected insulation ensembles were setup inside a climatic chamber in accordance to the modified European Standard for assessing requirements of sleeping bags. Fans were adjusted to provide low (< 0.5 m/s), moderate (2-3 m/s) and high (8-9 m/s) wind conditions. During steady state thermal transfer, the total resultant insulation value, Itr (m2 C/Wclo; where C = degrees Celcius, and W = watts), was calculated from ambient air temperature (C), manikin surface temperature (C), and heat flux (W/m2). In the low wind condition, thermal insulation of the evaluated ensembles correlated to thickness of the ensembles, ranging from 2.0 to 6.0 clo (1 clo = 0.155 m2 C/W), except for the reflective metallic foil blankets that had higher values than expected. In moderate and high wind conditions, thermal insulation was best preserved for ensembles that were windproof and resistant to the compressive effect of the wind, with insulation reductions down to about 60-80% of the original insulation capacity, whereas wind permeable and/or lighter materials were reduced down to about 30-50% of original insulation capacity. The evaluated insulation ensembles might all be used for prehospital protection against cold, either as single blankets or in multiple layer combinations, depending on ambient temperatures. However, with extended outdoor, on-scene durations, such as during prolonged extrications or in multiple casualty situations, the results of this study emphasize the importance of using a windproof and compression resistant outer ensemble to maintain adequate insulation capacity.

Ensemble kalman filtering to perform data assimilation with soil water content probes and pedotransfer functions in modeling water flow in variably saturated soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Data from modern soil water contents probes can be used for data assimilation in soil water flow modeling, i.e. continual correction of the flow model performance based on observations. The ensemble Kalman filter appears to be an appropriate method for that. The method requires estimates of the unce...

Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chia, A. C. E.; LaPierre, R. R.

2011-06-01

The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

Contact planarization of ensemble nanowires.

PubMed

Chia, A C E; LaPierre, R R

2011-06-17

The viability of four organic polymers (S1808, SC200, SU8 and Cyclotene) as filling materials to achieve planarization of ensemble nanowire arrays is reported. Analysis of the porosity, surface roughness and thermal stability of each filling material was performed. Sonication was used as an effective method to remove the tops of the nanowires (NWs) to achieve complete planarization. Ensemble nanowire devices were fully fabricated and I-V measurements confirmed that Cyclotene effectively planarizes the NWs while still serving the role as an insulating layer between the top and bottom contacts. These processes and analysis can be easily implemented into future characterization and fabrication of ensemble NWs for optoelectronic device applications.

Coherently coupling distinct spin ensembles through a high-Tc superconducting resonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirri, A.; Bonizzoni, C.; Troiani, F.; Buccheri, N.; Beverina, L.; Cassinese, A.; Affronte, M.

2016-06-01

The problem of coupling multiple spin ensembles through cavity photons is revisited by using (3,5-dichloro-4-pyridyl)bis(2,4,6-trichlorophenyl)methyl (PyBTM) organic radicals and a high-Tc superconducting coplanar resonator. An exceptionally strong coupling is obtained and up to three spin ensembles are simultaneously coupled. The ensembles are made physically distinguishable by chemically varying the g factor and by exploiting the inhomogeneities of the applied magnetic field. The coherent mixing of the spin and field modes is demonstrated by the observed multiple anticrossing, along with the simulations performed within the input-output formalism, and quantified by suitable entropic measures.

Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert

2017-11-01

Hydropower production requires optimal dam and reservoir management to prevent flooding damage and avoid operation losses. In a northern climate, where spring freshet constitutes the main inflow volume, seasonal forecasts can help to establish a yearly strategy. Long-term hydrological forecasts often rely on past observations of streamflow or meteorological data. Another alternative is to use ensemble meteorological forecasts produced by climate models. In this paper, those produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) System 4 are examined and bias is characterized. Bias correction, through the linear scaling method, improves the performance of the raw ensemble meteorological forecasts in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Then, three seasonal ensemble hydrological forecasting systems are compared: (1) the climatology of simulated streamflow, (2) the ensemble hydrological forecasts based on climatology (ESP) and (3) the hydrological forecasts based on bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts from System 4 (corr-DSP). Simulated streamflow computed using observed meteorological data is used as benchmark. Accounting for initial conditions is valuable even for long-term forecasts. ESP and corr-DSP both outperform the climatology of simulated streamflow for lead times from 1 to 5 months depending on the season and watershed. Integrating information about future meteorological conditions also improves monthly volume forecasts. For the 1-month lead time, a gain exists for almost all watersheds during winter, summer and fall. However, volume forecasts performance for spring varies from one watershed to another. For most of them, the performance is close to the performance of ESP. For longer lead times, the CRPS skill score is mostly in favour of ESP, even if for many watersheds, ESP and corr-DSP have comparable skill. Corr-DSP appears quite reliable but, in some cases, under-dispersion or bias is observed. A more complex bias-correction method should be further investigated to remedy this weakness and take more advantage of the ensemble forecasts produced by the climate model. Overall, in this study, bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts appear to be an interesting source of information for hydrological forecasting for lead times up to 1 month. They could also complement ESP for longer lead times.

Multiphysics superensemble forecast applied to Mediterranean heavy precipitation situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vich, M.; Romero, R.

2010-11-01

The high-impact precipitation events that regularly affect the western Mediterranean coastal regions are still difficult to predict with the current prediction systems. Bearing this in mind, this paper focuses on the superensemble technique applied to the precipitation field. Encouraged by the skill shown by a previous multiphysics ensemble prediction system applied to western Mediterranean precipitation events, the superensemble is fed with this ensemble. The training phase of the superensemble contributes to the actual forecast with weights obtained by comparing the past performance of the ensemble members and the corresponding observed states. The non-hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model is used to run the multiphysics ensemble. Simulations are performed with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in http://mm5forecasts.uib.es) nested in the ECMWF forecast fields. The period between September and December 2001 is used to train the superensemble and a collection of 19~MEDEX cyclones is used to test it. The verification procedure involves testing the superensemble performance and comparing it with that of the poor-man and bias-corrected ensemble mean and the multiphysic EPS control member. The results emphasize the need of a well-behaved training phase to obtain good results with the superensemble technique. A strategy to obtain this improved training phase is already outlined.

Automatic Estimation of Osteoporotic Fracture Cases by Using Ensemble Learning Approaches.

PubMed

Kilic, Niyazi; Hosgormez, Erkan

2016-03-01

Ensemble learning methods are one of the most powerful tools for the pattern classification problems. In this paper, the effects of ensemble learning methods and some physical bone densitometry parameters on osteoporotic fracture detection were investigated. Six feature set models were constructed including different physical parameters and they fed into the ensemble classifiers as input features. As ensemble learning techniques, bagging, gradient boosting and random subspace (RSM) were used. Instance based learning (IBk) and random forest (RF) classifiers applied to six feature set models. The patients were classified into three groups such as osteoporosis, osteopenia and control (healthy), using ensemble classifiers. Total classification accuracy and f-measure were also used to evaluate diagnostic performance of the proposed ensemble classification system. The classification accuracy has reached to 98.85 % by the combination of model 6 (five BMD + five T-score values) using RSM-RF classifier. The findings of this paper suggest that the patients will be able to be warned before a bone fracture occurred, by just examining some physical parameters that can easily be measured without invasive operations.

Sensitivity tests to define the source apportionment performance criteria in the DeltaSA tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernigotti, Denise; Belis, Claudio A.

2017-04-01

Identification and quantification of the contribution of emission sources to a given area is a key task for the design of abatement strategies. Moreover, European member states are obliged to report this kind of information for zones where the pollution levels exceed the limit values. At present, little is known about the performance and uncertainty of the variety of methodologies used for source apportionment and the comparability between the results of studies using different approaches. The source apportionment Delta (SA Delta) is a tool developed by the EC-JRC to support the particulate matter source apportionment modellers in the identification of sources (for factor analysis studies) and/or in the measure of their performance. The source identification is performed by the tool measuring the proximity of any user chemical profile to preloaded repository data (SPECIATE and SPECIEUROPE). The model performances criteria are based on standard statistical indexes calculated by comparing participants' source contribute estimates and their time series with preloaded references data. Those preloaded data refer to previous European SA intercomparison exercises: the first with real world data (22 participants), the second with synthetic data (25 participants) and the last with real world data which was also extended to Chemical Transport Models (38 receptor models and 4 CTMs). The references used for the model performances are 'true' (predefined by JRC) for the synthetic while they are calculated as ensemble average of the participants' results in real world intercomparisons. The candidates used for each source ensemble reference calculation were selected among participants results based on a number of consistency checks plus the similarity between their chemical profiles to the repository measured data. The estimation of the ensemble reference uncertainty is crucial in order to evaluate the users' performances against it. For this reason a sensitivity analysis on different methods to estimate the ensemble references' uncertainties was performed re-analyzing the synthetic intercomparison dataset, the only one where 'true' reference and ensemble reference contributions were both present. The Delta SA is now available on-line and will be presented, with a critical discussion of the sensitivity analysis on the ensemble reference uncertainty. In particular the grade of among participants mutual agreement on the presence of a certain source should be taken into account. Moreover also the importance of the synthetic intercomparisons in order to catch receptor models common biases will be stressed.

Sequence Based Prediction of Antioxidant Proteins Using a Classifier Selection Strategy

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lina; Zhang, Chengjin; Gao, Rui; Yang, Runtao; Song, Qing

2016-01-01

Antioxidant proteins perform significant functions in maintaining oxidation/antioxidation balance and have potential therapies for some diseases. Accurate identification of antioxidant proteins could contribute to revealing physiological processes of oxidation/antioxidation balance and developing novel antioxidation-based drugs. In this study, an ensemble method is presented to predict antioxidant proteins with hybrid features, incorporating SSI (Secondary Structure Information), PSSM (Position Specific Scoring Matrix), RSA (Relative Solvent Accessibility), and CTD (Composition, Transition, Distribution). The prediction results of the ensemble predictor are determined by an average of prediction results of multiple base classifiers. Based on a classifier selection strategy, we obtain an optimal ensemble classifier composed of RF (Random Forest), SMO (Sequential Minimal Optimization), NNA (Nearest Neighbor Algorithm), and J48 with an accuracy of 0.925. A Relief combined with IFS (Incremental Feature Selection) method is adopted to obtain optimal features from hybrid features. With the optimal features, the ensemble method achieves improved performance with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 0.93, an accuracy of 0.94, and an MCC (Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient) of 0.880, far better than the existing method. To evaluate the prediction performance objectively, the proposed method is compared with existing methods on the same independent testing dataset. Encouragingly, our method performs better than previous studies. In addition, our method achieves more balanced performance with a sensitivity of 0.878 and a specificity of 0.860. These results suggest that the proposed ensemble method can be a potential candidate for antioxidant protein prediction. For public access, we develop a user-friendly web server for antioxidant protein identification that is freely accessible at http://antioxidant.weka.cc. PMID:27662651

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaherpour, Jamal; Gosling, Simon N.; Mount, Nick; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Gerten, Dieter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Hanasaki, Naota; Kim, Hyungjun; Leng, Guoyong; Liu, Junguo; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Oki, Taikan; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Schewe, Jacob; Wada, Yoshihide

2018-06-01

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models’ ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.

Ensemble based adaptive over-sampling method for imbalanced data learning in computer aided detection of microaneurysm.

PubMed

Ren, Fulong; Cao, Peng; Li, Wei; Zhao, Dazhe; Zaiane, Osmar

2017-01-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a progressive disease, and its detection at an early stage is crucial for saving a patient's vision. An automated screening system for DR can help in reduce the chances of complete blindness due to DR along with lowering the work load on ophthalmologists. Among the earliest signs of DR are microaneurysms (MAs). However, current schemes for MA detection appear to report many false positives because detection algorithms have high sensitivity. Inevitably some non-MAs structures are labeled as MAs in the initial MAs identification step. This is a typical "class imbalance problem". Class imbalanced data has detrimental effects on the performance of conventional classifiers. In this work, we propose an ensemble based adaptive over-sampling algorithm for overcoming the class imbalance problem in the false positive reduction, and we use Boosting, Bagging, Random subspace as the ensemble framework to improve microaneurysm detection. The ensemble based over-sampling methods we proposed combine the strength of adaptive over-sampling and ensemble. The objective of the amalgamation of ensemble and adaptive over-sampling is to reduce the induction biases introduced from imbalanced data and to enhance the generalization classification performance of extreme learning machines (ELM). Experimental results show that our ASOBoost method has higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) and G-mean values than many existing class imbalance learning methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IntelliHealth: A medical decision support application using a novel weighted multi-layer classifier ensemble framework.

PubMed

Bashir, Saba; Qamar, Usman; Khan, Farhan Hassan

2016-02-01

Accuracy plays a vital role in the medical field as it concerns with the life of an individual. Extensive research has been conducted on disease classification and prediction using machine learning techniques. However, there is no agreement on which classifier produces the best results. A specific classifier may be better than others for a specific dataset, but another classifier could perform better for some other dataset. Ensemble of classifiers has been proved to be an effective way to improve classification accuracy. In this research we present an ensemble framework with multi-layer classification using enhanced bagging and optimized weighting. The proposed model called "HM-BagMoov" overcomes the limitations of conventional performance bottlenecks by utilizing an ensemble of seven heterogeneous classifiers. The framework is evaluated on five different heart disease datasets, four breast cancer datasets, two diabetes datasets, two liver disease datasets and one hepatitis dataset obtained from public repositories. The analysis of the results show that ensemble framework achieved the highest accuracy, sensitivity and F-Measure when compared with individual classifiers for all the diseases. In addition to this, the ensemble framework also achieved the highest accuracy when compared with the state of the art techniques. An application named "IntelliHealth" is also developed based on proposed model that may be used by hospitals/doctors for diagnostic advice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Anctil, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Perrin, Charles

2010-05-01

An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single estimate of the flow, for which no distribution is obtainable (the deterministic forecast). In the past years, efforts towards the development of probabilistic hydrological prediction systems were made with the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The additional information provided by the different available Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) was evaluated in a hydrological context on various case studies (see the review by Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). For example, the European ECMWF-EPS was explored in case studies by Roulin et al. (2005), Bartholmes et al. (2005), Jaun et al. (2008), and Renner et al. (2009). The Canadian EC-EPS was also evaluated by Velázquez et al. (2009). Most of these case studies investigate the ensemble predictions of a given hydrological model, set up over a limited number of catchments. Uncertainty from weather predictions is assessed through the use of meteorological ensembles. However, uncertainty from the tested hydrological model and statistical robustness of the forecasting system when coping with different hydro-meteorological conditions are less frequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance and the reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models applied to a large number of catchments in an operational ensemble forecasting context. Some of these models were evaluated in a previous study (Perrin et al. 2001) for their ability to simulate streamflow. Results demonstrated that very simple models can achieve a level of performance almost as high (sometimes higher) as models with more parameters. In the present study, we focus on the ability of the hydrological models to provide reliable probabilistic forecasts of streamflow, based on ensemble weather predictions. The models were therefore adapted to run in a forecasting mode, i.e., to update initial conditions according to the last observed discharge at the time of the forecast, and to cope with ensemble weather scenarios. All models are lumped, i.e., the hydrological behavior is integrated over the spatial scale of the catchment, and run at daily time steps. The complexity of tested models varies between 3 and 13 parameters. The models are tested on 29 French catchments. Daily streamflow time series extend over 17 months, from March 2005 to July 2006. Catchment areas range between 1470 km2 and 9390 km2, and represent a variety of hydrological and meteorological conditions. The 12 UTC 10-day ECMWF rainfall ensemble (51 members) was used, which led to daily streamflow forecasts for a 9-day lead time. In order to assess the performance and reliability of the hydrological ensemble predictions, we computed the Continuous Ranked probability Score (CRPS) (Matheson and Winkler, 1976), as well as the reliability diagram (e.g. Wilks, 1995) and the rank histogram (Talagrand et al., 1999). Since the ECMWF deterministic forecasts are also available, the performance of the hydrological forecasting systems was also evaluated by comparing the deterministic score (MAE) with the probabilistic score (CRPS). The results obtained for the 18 hydrological models and the 29 studied catchments are discussed in the perspective of improving the operational use of ensemble forecasting in hydrology. References Bartholmes, J. and Todini, E.: Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 333-346, 2005. Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble Flood Forecasting: A Review. Journal of Hydrology 375 (3-4): 613-626, 2009. Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T., and Schär, C.: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 281-291, 2008. Matheson, J. E. and Winkler, R. L.: Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions, Manage Sci., 22, 1087-1096, 1976. Perrin, C., Michel C. and Andréassian,V. Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? Comparative assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments, J. Hydrol., 242, 275-301, 2001. Renner, M., Werner, M. G. F., Rademacher, S., and Sprokkereef, E.: Verification of ensemble flow forecast for the River Rhine, J. Hydrol., 376, 463-475, 2009. Roulin, E. and Vannitsem, S.: Skill of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 729-744, 2005. Talagrand, O., Vautard, R., and Strauss, B.: Evaluation of the probabilistic prediction systems, in: Proceedings, ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, ECMWF, 1-25, 1999. Velázquez, J.A., Petit, T., Lavoie, A., Boucher M.-A., Turcotte R., Fortin V., and Anctil, F. : An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2221-2231, 2009. Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 465 pp., 1995.

Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Data for Inversely Determining Atmospheric Refractivity in Surface Ducting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenway, D. P.; Hackett, E.

2017-12-01

Under certain atmospheric refractivity conditions, propagated electromagnetic waves (EM) can become trapped between the surface and the bottom of the atmosphere's mixed layer, which is referred to as surface duct propagation. Being able to predict the presence of these surface ducts can reap many benefits to users and developers of sensing technologies and communication systems because they significantly influence the performance of these systems. However, the ability to directly measure or model a surface ducting layer is challenging due to the high spatial resolution and large spatial coverage needed to make accurate refractivity estimates for EM propagation; thus, inverse methods have become an increasingly popular way of determining atmospheric refractivity. This study uses data from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System developed by the Naval Research Laboratory and instrumented helicopter (helo) measurements taken during the Wallops Island Field Experiment to evaluate the use of ensemble forecasts in refractivity inversions. Helo measurements and ensemble forecasts are optimized to a parametric refractivity model, and three experiments are performed to evaluate whether incorporation of ensemble forecast data aids in more timely and accurate inverse solutions using genetic algorithms. The results suggest that using optimized ensemble members as an initial population for the genetic algorithms generally enhances the accuracy and speed of the inverse solution; however, use of the ensemble data to restrict parameter search space yields mixed results. Inaccurate results are related to parameterization of the ensemble members' refractivity profile and the subsequent extraction of the parameter ranges to limit the search space.

Pauci ex tanto numero: reduce redundancy in multi-model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, E.; Riccio, A.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Galmarini, S.

2013-08-01

We explicitly address the fundamental issue of member diversity in multi-model ensembles. To date, no attempts in this direction have been documented within the air quality (AQ) community despite the extensive use of ensembles in this field. Common biases and redundancy are the two issues directly deriving from lack of independence, undermining the significance of a multi-model ensemble, and are the subject of this study. Shared, dependant biases among models do not cancel out but will instead determine a biased ensemble. Redundancy derives from having too large a portion of common variance among the members of the ensemble, producing overconfidence in the predictions and underestimation of the uncertainty. The two issues of common biases and redundancy are analysed in detail using the AQMEII ensemble of AQ model results for four air pollutants in two European regions. We show that models share large portions of bias and variance, extending well beyond those induced by common inputs. We make use of several techniques to further show that subsets of models can explain the same amount of variance as the full ensemble with the advantage of being poorly correlated. Selecting the members for generating skilful, non-redundant ensembles from such subsets proved, however, non-trivial. We propose and discuss various methods of member selection and rate the ensemble performance they produce. In most cases, the full ensemble is outscored by the reduced ones. We conclude that, although independence of outputs may not always guarantee enhancement of scores (but this depends upon the skill being investigated), we discourage selecting the members of the ensemble simply on the basis of scores; that is, independence and skills need to be considered disjointly.

A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Kenji

2018-04-01

To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

Beating time: How ensemble musicians' cueing gestures communicate beat position and tempo.

PubMed

Bishop, Laura; Goebl, Werner

2018-01-01

Ensemble musicians typically exchange visual cues to coordinate piece entrances. "Cueing-in" gestures indicate when to begin playing and at what tempo. This study investigated how timing information is encoded in musicians' cueing-in gestures. Gesture acceleration patterns were expected to indicate beat position, while gesture periodicity, duration, and peak gesture velocity were expected to indicate tempo. Same-instrument ensembles (e.g., piano-piano) were expected to synchronize more successfully than mixed-instrument ensembles (e.g., piano-violin). Duos performed short passages as their head and (for violinists) bowing hand movements were tracked with accelerometers and Kinect sensors. Performers alternated between leader/follower roles; leaders heard a tempo via headphones and cued their partner in nonverbally. Violin duos synchronized more successfully than either piano duos or piano-violin duos, possibly because violinists were more experienced in ensemble playing than pianists. Peak acceleration indicated beat position in leaders' head-nodding gestures. Gesture duration and periodicity in leaders' head and bowing hand gestures indicated tempo. The results show that the spatio-temporal characteristics of cueing-in gestures guide beat perception, enabling synchronization with visual gestures that follow a range of spatial trajectories.

Locally Weighted Ensemble Clustering.

PubMed

Huang, Dong; Wang, Chang-Dong; Lai, Jian-Huang

2018-05-01

Due to its ability to combine multiple base clusterings into a probably better and more robust clustering, the ensemble clustering technique has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. Despite the significant success, one limitation to most of the existing ensemble clustering methods is that they generally treat all base clusterings equally regardless of their reliability, which makes them vulnerable to low-quality base clusterings. Although some efforts have been made to (globally) evaluate and weight the base clusterings, yet these methods tend to view each base clustering as an individual and neglect the local diversity of clusters inside the same base clustering. It remains an open problem how to evaluate the reliability of clusters and exploit the local diversity in the ensemble to enhance the consensus performance, especially, in the case when there is no access to data features or specific assumptions on data distribution. To address this, in this paper, we propose a novel ensemble clustering approach based on ensemble-driven cluster uncertainty estimation and local weighting strategy. In particular, the uncertainty of each cluster is estimated by considering the cluster labels in the entire ensemble via an entropic criterion. A novel ensemble-driven cluster validity measure is introduced, and a locally weighted co-association matrix is presented to serve as a summary for the ensemble of diverse clusters. With the local diversity in ensembles exploited, two novel consensus functions are further proposed. Extensive experiments on a variety of real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over the state-of-the-art.

Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah

2018-07-01

In this research, eight individual machine learning and statistical models are implemented and compared, and based on their results, seven ensemble models for flood susceptibility assessment are introduced. The individual models included artificial neural networks, classification and regression trees, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy, and the ensemble models were Ensemble Model committee averaging (EMca), Ensemble Model confidence interval Inferior (EMciInf), Ensemble Model confidence interval Superior (EMciSup), Ensemble Model to estimate the coefficient of variation (EMcv), Ensemble Model to estimate the mean (EMmean), Ensemble Model to estimate the median (EMmedian), and Ensemble Model based on weighted mean (EMwmean). The data set covered 201 flood events in the Haraz watershed (Mazandaran province in Iran) and 10,000 randomly selected non-occurrence points. Among the individual models, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC), which showed the highest value, belonged to boosted regression trees (0.975) and the lowest value was recorded for generalized linear model (0.642). On the other hand, the proposed EMmedian resulted in the highest accuracy (0.976) among all models. In spite of the outstanding performance of some models, nevertheless, variability among the prediction of individual models was considerable. Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, creating more generalizable, more stable, and less sensitive models, ensemble forecasting approaches and in particular the EMmedian is recommended for flood susceptibility assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controlled assembly and single electron charging of monolayer protected Au144 clusters: an electrochemistry and scanning tunneling spectroscopy study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodappa, Nataraju; Fluch, Ulrike; Fu, Yongchun; Mayor, Marcel; Moreno-García, Pavel; Siegenthaler, Hans; Wandlowski, Thomas

2014-11-01

Single gold particles may serve as room temperature single electron memory units because of their size dependent electronic level spacing. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study by electrochemically controlled scanning probe experiments performed on tailor-made Au particles of narrow dispersity. In particular, the charge transport characteristics through chemically synthesized hexane-1-thiol and 4-pyridylbenzene-1-thiol mixed monolayer protected Au144 clusters (MPCs) by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) and electrochemical scanning tunneling spectroscopy (EC-STS) are reported. The pyridyl groups exposed by the Au-MPCs enable their immobilization on Pt(111) substrates. By varying the humidity during their deposition, samples coated by stacks of compact monolayers of Au-MPCs or decorated with individual, laterally separated Au-MPCs are obtained. DPV experiments with stacked monolayers of Au144-MPCs and EC-STS experiments with laterally separated individual Au144-MPCs are performed both in aqueous and ionic liquid electrolytes. Lower capacitance values were observed for individual clusters compared to ensemble clusters. This trend remains the same irrespective of the composition of the electrolyte surrounding the Au144-MPC. However, the resolution of the energy level spacing of the single clusters is strongly affected by the proximity of neighboring particles.Single gold particles may serve as room temperature single electron memory units because of their size dependent electronic level spacing. Here, we present a proof-of-concept study by electrochemically controlled scanning probe experiments performed on tailor-made Au particles of narrow dispersity. In particular, the charge transport characteristics through chemically synthesized hexane-1-thiol and 4-pyridylbenzene-1-thiol mixed monolayer protected Au144 clusters (MPCs) by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) and electrochemical scanning tunneling spectroscopy (EC-STS) are reported. The pyridyl groups exposed by the Au-MPCs enable their immobilization on Pt(111) substrates. By varying the humidity during their deposition, samples coated by stacks of compact monolayers of Au-MPCs or decorated with individual, laterally separated Au-MPCs are obtained. DPV experiments with stacked monolayers of Au144-MPCs and EC-STS experiments with laterally separated individual Au144-MPCs are performed both in aqueous and ionic liquid electrolytes. Lower capacitance values were observed for individual clusters compared to ensemble clusters. This trend remains the same irrespective of the composition of the electrolyte surrounding the Au144-MPC. However, the resolution of the energy level spacing of the single clusters is strongly affected by the proximity of neighboring particles. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c4nr03793f

Metal Oxide Gas Sensor Drift Compensation Using a Two-Dimensional Classifier Ensemble

PubMed Central

Liu, Hang; Chu, Renzhi; Tang, Zhenan

2015-01-01

Sensor drift is the most challenging problem in gas sensing at present. We propose a novel two-dimensional classifier ensemble strategy to solve the gas discrimination problem, regardless of the gas concentration, with high accuracy over extended periods of time. This strategy is appropriate for multi-class classifiers that consist of combinations of pairwise classifiers, such as support vector machines. We compare the performance of the strategy with those of competing methods in an experiment based on a public dataset that was compiled over a period of three years. The experimental results demonstrate that the two-dimensional ensemble outperforms the other methods considered. Furthermore, we propose a pre-aging process inspired by that applied to the sensors to improve the stability of the classifier ensemble. The experimental results demonstrate that the weight of each multi-class classifier model in the ensemble remains fairly static before and after the addition of new classifier models to the ensemble, when a pre-aging procedure is applied. PMID:25942640

Ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter for linear time-dependent PDEs with noisy boundary conditions: application to heat transfer in building walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Marco; Sawlan, Zaid; Scavino, Marco; Tempone, Raúl; Wood, Christopher

2018-07-01

In this work, we present the ensemble-marginalized Kalman filter (EnMKF), a sequential algorithm analogous to our previously proposed approach (Ruggeri et al 2017 Bayesian Anal. 12 407–33, Iglesias et al 2018 Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 116 417–31), for estimating the state and parameters of linear parabolic partial differential equations in initial-boundary value problems when the boundary data are noisy. We apply EnMKF to infer the thermal properties of building walls and to estimate the corresponding heat flux from real and synthetic data. Compared with a modified ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that is not marginalized, EnMKF reduces the bias error, avoids the collapse of the ensemble without needing to add inflation, and converges to the mean field posterior using or less of the ensemble size required by EnKF. According to our results, the marginalization technique in EnMKF is key to performance improvement with smaller ensembles at any fixed time.

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

Evaluation of a passive method for determining particle penetration through protective clothing materials.

PubMed

Jaques, Peter A; Portnoff, Lee

2017-12-01

The risk of workers' exposure to aerosolized particles has increased with the upsurge in the production of engineered nanomaterials. Currently, a whole-body standard test method for measuring particle penetration through protective clothing ensembles is not available. Those available for respirators neglect the most common challenges to ensembles, because they use active vacuum-based filtration, designed to simulate breathing, rather than the positive forces of wind experienced by workers. Thus, a passive method that measures wind-driven particle penetration through ensemble fabric has been developed and evaluated. The apparatus includes a multidomain magnetic passive aerosol sampler housed in a shrouded penetration cell. Performance evaluation was conducted in a recirculation aerosol wind tunnel using paramagnetic Fe 3 O 4 (i.e., iron (II, III) oxide) particles for the challenge aerosol. The particles were collected on a PVC substrate and quantified using a computer-controlled scanning electron microscope. Particle penetration levels were determined by taking the ratio of the particle number collected on the substrate with a fabric (sample) to that without a fabric (control). Results for each fabric obtained by this passive method were compared to previous results from an automated vacuum-based active fractional efficiency tester (TSI 3160), which used sodium chloride particles as the challenge aerosol. Four nonwoven fabrics with a range of thicknesses, porosities, and air permeabilities were evaluated. Smoke tests and flow modeling showed the passive sampler shroud provided smooth (non-turbulent) air flow along the exterior of the sampler, such that disturbance of flow stream lines and distortion of the particle size distribution were reduced. Differences between the active and passive approaches were as high as 5.5-fold for the fabric with the lowest air permeability (0.00067 m/sec-Pa), suggesting the active method overestimated penetration in dense fabrics because the active method draws air at a constant flow rate regardless of the resistance of the test fabric. The passive method indicated greater sensitivity since penetration decreased in response to the increase in permeability.

Protective clothing ensembles and physical employment standards.

PubMed

McLellan, Tom M; Havenith, George

2016-06-01

Physical employment standards (PESs) exist for certain occupational groups that also require the use of protective clothing ensembles (PCEs) during their normal work. This review addresses whether these current PESs appropriately incorporate the physiological burden associated with wearing PCEs during respective tasks. Metabolic heat production increases because of wearing PCE; this increase is greater than that because of simply the weight of the clothing and can vary 2-fold among individuals. This variation negates a simple adjustment to the PES for the effect of the clothing on metabolic rate. As a result, PES testing that only simulates the weight of the clothing and protective equipment does not adequately accommodate this effect. The physiological heat strain associated with the use of PCEs is also not addressed with current PESs. Typically the selection tests of a PES lasts less than 20 min, whereas the requirement for use of PCE in the workplace may approach 1 h before cooling strategies can be employed. One option that might be considered is to construct a heat stress test that requires new recruits and incumbents to work for a predetermined duration while exposed to a warm environmental temperature while wearing the PCE.

Ensemble codes involving hippocampal neurons are at risk during delayed performance tests.

PubMed

Hampson, R E; Deadwyler, S A

1996-11-26

Multielectrode recording techniques were used to record ensemble activity from 10 to 16 simultaneously active CA1 and CA3 neurons in the rat hippocampus during performance of a spatial delayed-nonmatch-to-sample task. Extracted sources of variance were used to assess the nature of two different types of errors that accounted for 30% of total trials. The two types of errors included ensemble "miscodes" of sample phase information and errors associated with delay-dependent corruption or disappearance of sample information at the time of the nonmatch response. Statistical assessment of trial sequences and associated "strength" of hippocampal ensemble codes revealed that miscoded error trials always followed delay-dependent error trials in which encoding was "weak," indicating that the two types of errors were "linked." It was determined that the occurrence of weakly encoded, delay-dependent error trials initiated an ensemble encoding "strategy" that increased the chances of being correct on the next trial and avoided the occurrence of further delay-dependent errors. Unexpectedly, the strategy involved "strongly" encoding response position information from the prior (delay-dependent) error trial and carrying it forward to the sample phase of the next trial. This produced a miscode type error on trials in which the "carried over" information obliterated encoding of the sample phase response on the next trial. Application of this strategy, irrespective of outcome, was sufficient to reorient the animal to the proper between trial sequence of response contingencies (nonmatch-to-sample) and boost performance to 73% correct on subsequent trials. The capacity for ensemble analyses of strength of information encoding combined with statistical assessment of trial sequences therefore provided unique insight into the "dynamic" nature of the role hippocampus plays in delay type memory tasks.

Drug-target interaction prediction using ensemble learning and dimensionality reduction.

PubMed

Ezzat, Ali; Wu, Min; Li, Xiao-Li; Kwoh, Chee-Keong

2017-10-01

Experimental prediction of drug-target interactions is expensive, time-consuming and tedious. Fortunately, computational methods help narrow down the search space for interaction candidates to be further examined via wet-lab techniques. Nowadays, the number of attributes/features for drugs and targets, as well as the amount of their interactions, are increasing, making these computational methods inefficient or occasionally prohibitive. This motivates us to derive a reduced feature set for prediction. In addition, since ensemble learning techniques are widely used to improve the classification performance, it is also worthwhile to design an ensemble learning framework to enhance the performance for drug-target interaction prediction. In this paper, we propose a framework for drug-target interaction prediction leveraging both feature dimensionality reduction and ensemble learning. First, we conducted feature subspacing to inject diversity into the classifier ensemble. Second, we applied three different dimensionality reduction methods to the subspaced features. Third, we trained homogeneous base learners with the reduced features and then aggregated their scores to derive the final predictions. For base learners, we selected two classifiers, namely Decision Tree and Kernel Ridge Regression, resulting in two variants of ensemble models, EnsemDT and EnsemKRR, respectively. In our experiments, we utilized AUC (Area under ROC Curve) as an evaluation metric. We compared our proposed methods with various state-of-the-art methods under 5-fold cross validation. Experimental results showed EnsemKRR achieving the highest AUC (94.3%) for predicting drug-target interactions. In addition, dimensionality reduction helped improve the performance of EnsemDT. In conclusion, our proposed methods produced significant improvements for drug-target interaction prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glyph-based analysis of multimodal directional distributions in vector field ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarema, Mihaela; Demir, Ismail; Kehrer, Johannes; Westermann, Rüdiger

2015-04-01

Ensemble simulations are increasingly often performed in the geosciences in order to study the uncertainty and variability of model predictions. Describing ensemble data by mean and standard deviation can be misleading in case of multimodal distributions. We present first results of a glyph-based visualization of multimodal directional distributions in 2D and 3D vector ensemble data. Directional information on the circle/sphere is modeled using mixtures of probability density functions (pdfs), which enables us to characterize the distributions with relatively few parameters. The resulting mixture models are represented by 2D and 3D lobular glyphs showing direction, spread and strength of each principal mode of the distributions. A 3D extension of our approach is realized by means of an efficient GPU rendering technique. We demonstrate our method in the context of ensemble weather simulations.

Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed.

PubMed

Baran, S; Lerch, S

2016-03-01

Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive probability density functions. The EMOS predictive probability density function is given by a parametric distribution with parameters depending on the ensemble forecasts. We propose an EMOS model for calibrating wind speed forecasts based on weighted mixtures of truncated normal (TN) and log-normal (LN) distributions where model parameters and component weights are estimated by optimizing the values of proper scoring rules over a rolling training period. The new model is tested on wind speed forecasts of the 50 member European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ensemble, the 11 member Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement International-Hungary Ensemble Prediction System ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, and its predictive performance is compared with that of various benchmark EMOS models based on single parametric families and combinations thereof. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts in comparison with the raw ensemble and climatological forecasts. The mixture EMOS model significantly outperforms the TN and LN EMOS methods; moreover, it provides better calibrated forecasts than the TN-LN combination model and offers an increased flexibility while avoiding covariate selection problems. © 2016 The Authors Environmetrics Published by JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.

Benchmarking Commercial Conformer Ensemble Generators.

PubMed

Friedrich, Nils-Ole; de Bruyn Kops, Christina; Flachsenberg, Florian; Sommer, Kai; Rarey, Matthias; Kirchmair, Johannes

2017-11-27

We assess and compare the performance of eight commercial conformer ensemble generators (ConfGen, ConfGenX, cxcalc, iCon, MOE LowModeMD, MOE Stochastic, MOE Conformation Import, and OMEGA) and one leading free algorithm, the distance geometry algorithm implemented in RDKit. The comparative study is based on a new version of the Platinum Diverse Dataset, a high-quality benchmarking dataset of 2859 protein-bound ligand conformations extracted from the PDB. Differences in the performance of commercial algorithms are much smaller than those observed for free algorithms in our previous study (J. Chem. Inf. 2017, 57, 529-539). For commercial algorithms, the median minimum root-mean-square deviations measured between protein-bound ligand conformations and ensembles of a maximum of 250 conformers are between 0.46 and 0.61 Å. Commercial conformer ensemble generators are characterized by their high robustness, with at least 99% of all input molecules successfully processed and few or even no substantial geometrical errors detectable in their output conformations. The RDKit distance geometry algorithm (with minimization enabled) appears to be a good free alternative since its performance is comparable to that of the midranked commercial algorithms. Based on a statistical analysis, we elaborate on which algorithms to use and how to parametrize them for best performance in different application scenarios.

Integrated Data-Archive and Distributed Hydrological Modelling System for Optimized Dam Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Jaranilla-Sanchez, Patricia Ann; Koike, Toshio

2013-04-01

In 2012, typhoon Bopha, which passed through the southern part of the Philippines, devastated the nation leaving hundreds of death tolls and significant destruction of the country. Indeed the deadly events related to cyclones occur almost every year in the region. Such extremes are expected to increase both in frequency and magnitude around Southeast Asia, during the course of global climate change. Our ability to confront such hazardous events is limited by the best available engineering infrastructure and performance of weather prediction. An example of the countermeasure strategy is, for instance, early release of reservoir water (lowering the dam water level) during the flood season to protect the downstream region of impending flood. However, over release of reservoir water affect the regional economy adversely by losing water resources, which still have value for power generation, agricultural and industrial water use. Furthermore, accurate precipitation forecast itself is conundrum task, due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere yielding uncertainty in model prediction over time. Under these circumstances we present a novel approach to optimize contradicting objectives of: preventing flood damage via priori dam release; while sustaining sufficient water supply, during the predicted storm events. By evaluating forecast performance of Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Value against observed rainfall, uncertainty in model prediction is probabilistically taken into account, and it is then applied to the next GPV issuance for generating ensemble rainfalls. The ensemble rainfalls drive the coupled land-surface- and distributed-hydrological model to derive the ensemble flood forecast. Together with dam status information taken into account, our integrated system estimates the most desirable priori dam release through the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. The strength of the optimization system is further magnified by the online link to the Data Integration and Analysis System, a Japanese national project for collecting, integrating and analyzing massive amount of global scale observation data, meaning that the present system is applicable worldwide. We demonstrate the integrated system with observed extreme events in Angat Watershed, the Philippines, and Upper Tone River basin, Japan. The results show promising performance for operational use of the system to support river and dam managers' decision-making.

Toward the Development of a Coupled COAMPS-ROMS Ensemble Kalman Filter and Adjoint with a focus on the Indian Ocean and the Intraseasonal Oscillation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Toward the Development of a Coupled COAMPS-ROMS Ensemble Kalman Filter and Adjoint...system at NCAR. (2) Compare the performance of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and 4...undercurrent is clearly visible. Figure 2 shows the horizontal temperature structure and circulation at a depth of 50 m within the surface mixed layer

Teaching Strategies for Specialized Ensembles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teaching Music, 1999

1999-01-01

Provides a strategy, from the book "Strategies for Teaching Specialized Ensembles," that addresses Standard 9A of the National Standards for Music Education. Explains that students will identify and describe the musical and historical characteristics of the classical era in music they perform and in audio examples. (CMK)

Effect of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI) and degradation mechanisms on spent nuclear fuel rod mechanical performance during transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Brittany Ann

Winter storms can affect millions of people, with impacts such as disruptions to transportation, hazards to human health, reduction in retail sales, and structural damage. Blizzard forecasts for Alberta Clippers can be a particular challenge in the Northern Plains, as these systems typically depart from the Canadian Rockies, intensify, and impact the Northern Plains all within 24 hours. The purpose of this study is to determine whether probabilistic forecasts derived from a local physics-based ensemble can improve specific aspects of winter storm forecasts for three Alberta Clipper cases. Verification is performed on the ensemble members and ensemble mean with a focus on quantifying uncertainty in the storm track, two-meter winds, and precipitation using the MERRA and NOHRSC SNODAS datasets. This study finds that addition improvements are needed to proceed with operational use of the ensemble blizzard products, but the use of a proxy for blizzard conditions yields promising results.

A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafaysse, Matthieu; Cluzet, Bertrand; Dumont, Marie; Lejeune, Yves; Vionnet, Vincent; Morin, Samuel

2017-05-01

Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications.

Understanding independence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, James; Hargreaves, Julia

2016-04-01

In order to perform any Bayesian processing of a model ensemble, we need a prior over the ensemble members. In the case of multimodel ensembles such as CMIP, the historical approach of ``model democracy'' (i.e. equal weight for all models in the sample) is no longer credible (if it ever was) due to model duplication and inbreeding. The question of ``model independence'' is central to the question of prior weights. However, although this question has been repeatedly raised, it has not yet been satisfactorily addressed. Here I will discuss the issue of independence and present a theoretical foundation for understanding and analysing the ensemble in this context. I will also present some simple examples showing how these ideas may be applied and developed.

Can single classifiers be as useful as model ensembles to produce benthic seabed substratum maps?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Joseph A.; Babcock, Russell C.; Hovey, Renae; Kendrick, Gary A.

2018-05-01

Numerous machine-learning classifiers are available for benthic habitat map production, which can lead to different results. This study highlights the performance of the Random Forest (RF) classifier, which was significantly better than Classification Trees (CT), Naïve Bayes (NB), and a multi-model ensemble in terms of overall accuracy, Balanced Error Rate (BER), Kappa, and area under the curve (AUC) values. RF accuracy was often higher than 90% for each substratum class, even at the most detailed level of the substratum classification and AUC values also indicated excellent performance (0.8-1). Total agreement between classifiers was high at the broadest level of classification (75-80%) when differentiating between hard and soft substratum. However, this sharply declined as the number of substratum categories increased (19-45%) including a mix of rock, gravel, pebbles, and sand. The model ensemble, produced from the results of all three classifiers by majority voting, did not show any increase in predictive performance when compared to the single RF classifier. This study shows how a single classifier may be sufficient to produce benthic seabed maps and model ensembles of multiple classifiers.

Conservative strategy-based ensemble surrogate model for optimal groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Lin, Jin; Deng, Wenbing; Cheng, Weiguo

2017-08-01

The surrogate-based simulation-optimization techniques are frequently used for optimal groundwater remediation design. When this technique is used, surrogate errors caused by surrogate-modeling uncertainty may lead to generation of infeasible designs. In this paper, a conservative strategy that pushes the optimal design into the feasible region was used to address surrogate-modeling uncertainty. In addition, chance-constrained programming (CCP) was adopted to compare with the conservative strategy in addressing this uncertainty. Three methods, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP), Kriging (KRG) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to construct surrogate models for a time-consuming multi-phase flow model. To improve the performance of the surrogate model, ensemble surrogates were constructed based on combinations of different stand-alone surrogate models. The results show that: (1) the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was successfully addressed by the conservative strategy, which means that this method is promising for addressing surrogate-modeling uncertainty. (2) The ensemble surrogate model that combines MGGP with KRG showed the most favorable performance, which indicates that this ensemble surrogate can utilize both stand-alone surrogate models to improve the performance of the surrogate model.

Protein Sequence Classification with Improved Extreme Learning Machine Algorithms

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Precisely classifying a protein sequence from a large biological protein sequences database plays an important role for developing competitive pharmacological products. Comparing the unseen sequence with all the identified protein sequences and returning the category index with the highest similarity scored protein, conventional methods are usually time-consuming. Therefore, it is urgent and necessary to build an efficient protein sequence classification system. In this paper, we study the performance of protein sequence classification using SLFNs. The recent efficient extreme learning machine (ELM) and its invariants are utilized as the training algorithms. The optimal pruned ELM is first employed for protein sequence classification in this paper. To further enhance the performance, the ensemble based SLFNs structure is constructed where multiple SLFNs with the same number of hidden nodes and the same activation function are used as ensembles. For each ensemble, the same training algorithm is adopted. The final category index is derived using the majority voting method. Two approaches, namely, the basic ELM and the OP-ELM, are adopted for the ensemble based SLFNs. The performance is analyzed and compared with several existing methods using datasets obtained from the Protein Information Resource center. The experimental results show the priority of the proposed algorithms. PMID:24795876

An Overt Chemical Protective Garment Reduces Thermal Strain Compared with a Covert Garment in Warm-Wet but Not Hot-Dry Environments.

PubMed

Maley, Matthew J; Costello, Joseph T; Borg, David N; Bach, Aaron J E; Hunt, Andrew P; Stewart, Ian B

2017-01-01

Objectives: A commercial chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) protective covert garment has recently been developed with the aim of reducing thermal strain. A covert CBRN protective layer can be worn under other clothing, with equipment added for full chemical protection when needed. However, it is unknown whether the covert garment offers any alleviation to thermal strain during work compared with a traditional overt ensemble. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare thermal strain and work tolerance times during work in an overt and covert ensemble offering the same level of CBRN protection. Methods : Eleven male participants wore an overt (OVERT) or covert (COVERT) CBRN ensemble and walked (4 km·h -1 , 1% grade) for a maximum of 120 min in either a wet bulb globe temperature [WBGT] of 21, 30, or 37°C (Neutral, WarmWet and HotDry, respectively). The trials were ceased if the participants' gastrointestinal temperature reached 39°C, heart rate reached 90% of maximum, walking time reached 120 min or due to self-termination. Results: All participants completed 120 min of walking in Neutral. Work tolerance time was greater in OVERT compared with COVERT in WarmWet ( P < 0.001, 116.5[9.9] vs. 88.9[12.2] min, respectively), though this order was reversed in HotDry ( P = 0.003, 37.3[5.3] vs. 48.4[4.6] min, respectively). The rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in COVERT (0.025[0.004] and 0.045[0.010]°C·min -1 , respectively) compared with OVERT (0.014[0.004] and 0.027[0.007]°C·min -1 , respectively) in WarmWet ( P < 0.001 and P = 0.028, respectively). However, the rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in OVERT (0.068[0.010] and 0.170[0.026]°C·min -1 , respectively) compared with COVERT (0.059[0.004] and 0.120[0.017]°C·min -1 , respectively) in HotDry ( P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and ratings of perceived exertion did not differ between garments at trial cessation ( P > 0.05). Conclusion: Those dressed in OVERT experienced lower thermal strain and longer work tolerance times compared with COVERT in a warm-wet environment. However, COVERT may be an optimal choice in a hot-dry environment. These findings have practical implications for those making decisions on the choice of CBRN ensemble to be used during work.

An Overt Chemical Protective Garment Reduces Thermal Strain Compared with a Covert Garment in Warm-Wet but Not Hot-Dry Environments

PubMed Central

Maley, Matthew J.; Costello, Joseph T.; Borg, David N.; Bach, Aaron J. E.; Hunt, Andrew P.; Stewart, Ian B.

2017-01-01

Objectives: A commercial chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) protective covert garment has recently been developed with the aim of reducing thermal strain. A covert CBRN protective layer can be worn under other clothing, with equipment added for full chemical protection when needed. However, it is unknown whether the covert garment offers any alleviation to thermal strain during work compared with a traditional overt ensemble. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare thermal strain and work tolerance times during work in an overt and covert ensemble offering the same level of CBRN protection. Methods: Eleven male participants wore an overt (OVERT) or covert (COVERT) CBRN ensemble and walked (4 km·h−1, 1% grade) for a maximum of 120 min in either a wet bulb globe temperature [WBGT] of 21, 30, or 37°C (Neutral, WarmWet and HotDry, respectively). The trials were ceased if the participants' gastrointestinal temperature reached 39°C, heart rate reached 90% of maximum, walking time reached 120 min or due to self-termination. Results: All participants completed 120 min of walking in Neutral. Work tolerance time was greater in OVERT compared with COVERT in WarmWet (P < 0.001, 116.5[9.9] vs. 88.9[12.2] min, respectively), though this order was reversed in HotDry (P = 0.003, 37.3[5.3] vs. 48.4[4.6] min, respectively). The rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in COVERT (0.025[0.004] and 0.045[0.010]°C·min−1, respectively) compared with OVERT (0.014[0.004] and 0.027[0.007]°C·min−1, respectively) in WarmWet (P < 0.001 and P = 0.028, respectively). However, the rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in OVERT (0.068[0.010] and 0.170[0.026]°C·min−1, respectively) compared with COVERT (0.059[0.004] and 0.120[0.017]°C·min−1, respectively) in HotDry (P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and ratings of perceived exertion did not differ between garments at trial cessation (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Those dressed in OVERT experienced lower thermal strain and longer work tolerance times compared with COVERT in a warm-wet environment. However, COVERT may be an optimal choice in a hot-dry environment. These findings have practical implications for those making decisions on the choice of CBRN ensemble to be used during work. PMID:29170644

Ensemble experiments using a nested LETKF system to reproduce intense vortices associated with tornadoes of 6 May 2012 in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seko, Hiromu; Kunii, Masaru; Yokota, Sho; Tsuyuki, Tadashi; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2015-12-01

Experiments simulating intense vortices associated with tornadoes that occurred on 6 May 2012 on the Kanto Plain, Japan, were performed with a nested local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) system. Intense vortices were reproduced by downscale experiments with a 12-member ensemble in which the initial conditions were obtained from the nested LETKF system analyses. The downscale experiments successfully generated intense vortices in three regions similar to the observed vortices, whereas only one tornado was reproduced by a deterministic forecast. The intense vorticity of the strongest tornado, which was observed in the southernmost region, was successfully reproduced by 10 of the 12 ensemble members. An examination of the results of the ensemble downscale experiments showed that the duration of intense vorticities tended to be longer when the vertical shear of the horizontal wind was larger and the lower airflow was more humid. Overall, the study results show that ensemble forecasts have the following merits: (1) probabilistic forecasts of the outbreak of intense vortices associated with tornadoes are possible; (2) the miss rate of outbreaks should decrease; and (3) environmental factors favoring outbreaks can be obtained by comparing the multiple possible scenarios of the ensemble forecasts.

Effects of ensembles on methane hydrate nucleation kinetics.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhengcai; Liu, Chan-Juan; Walsh, Matthew R; Guo, Guang-Jun

2016-06-21

By performing molecular dynamics simulations to form a hydrate with a methane nano-bubble in liquid water at 250 K and 50 MPa, we report how different ensembles, such as the NPT, NVT, and NVE ensembles, affect the nucleation kinetics of the methane hydrate. The nucleation trajectories are monitored using the face-saturated incomplete cage analysis (FSICA) and the mutually coordinated guest (MCG) order parameter (OP). The nucleation rate and the critical nucleus are obtained using the mean first-passage time (MFPT) method based on the FS cages and the MCG-1 OPs, respectively. The fitting results of MFPT show that hydrate nucleation and growth are coupled together, consistent with the cage adsorption hypothesis which emphasizes that the cage adsorption of methane is a mechanism for both hydrate nucleation and growth. For the three different ensembles, the hydrate nucleation rate is quantitatively ordered as follows: NPT > NVT > NVE, while the sequence of hydrate crystallinity is exactly reversed. However, the largest size of the critical nucleus appears in the NVT ensemble, rather than in the NVE ensemble. These results are helpful for choosing a suitable ensemble when to study hydrate formation via computer simulations, and emphasize the importance of the order degree of the critical nucleus.

JEnsembl: a version-aware Java API to Ensembl data systems.

PubMed

Paterson, Trevor; Law, Andy

2012-11-01

The Ensembl Project provides release-specific Perl APIs for efficient high-level programmatic access to data stored in various Ensembl database schema. Although Perl scripts are perfectly suited for processing large volumes of text-based data, Perl is not ideal for developing large-scale software applications nor embedding in graphical interfaces. The provision of a novel Java API would facilitate type-safe, modular, object-orientated development of new Bioinformatics tools with which to access, analyse and visualize Ensembl data. The JEnsembl API implementation provides basic data retrieval and manipulation functionality from the Core, Compara and Variation databases for all species in Ensembl and EnsemblGenomes and is a platform for the development of a richer API to Ensembl datasources. The JEnsembl architecture uses a text-based configuration module to provide evolving, versioned mappings from database schema to code objects. A single installation of the JEnsembl API can therefore simultaneously and transparently connect to current and previous database instances (such as those in the public archive) thus facilitating better analysis repeatability and allowing 'through time' comparative analyses to be performed. Project development, released code libraries, Maven repository and documentation are hosted at SourceForge (http://jensembl.sourceforge.net).

Framework for ReSTful Web Services in OSGi

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shams, Khawaja S.; Norris, Jeffrey S.; Powell, Mark W.; Crockett, Thomas M.; Mittman, David S.; Fox, Jason M.; Joswig, Joseph C.; Wallick, Michael N.; Torres, Recaredo J.; Rabe, Kenneth

2009-01-01

Ensemble ReST is a software system that eases the development, deployment, and maintenance of server-side application programs to perform functions that would otherwise be performed by client software. Ensemble ReST takes advantage of the proven disciplines of ReST (Representational State Transfer. ReST leverages the standardized HTTP protocol to enable developers to offer services to a diverse variety of clients: from shell scripts to sophisticated Java application suites

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

2002-01-01

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Improving the accuracy of protein stability predictions with multistate design using a variety of backbone ensembles.

PubMed

Davey, James A; Chica, Roberto A

2014-05-01

Multistate computational protein design (MSD) with backbone ensembles approximating conformational flexibility can predict higher quality sequences than single-state design with a single fixed backbone. However, it is currently unclear what characteristics of backbone ensembles are required for the accurate prediction of protein sequence stability. In this study, we aimed to improve the accuracy of protein stability predictions made with MSD by using a variety of backbone ensembles to recapitulate the experimentally measured stability of 85 Streptococcal protein G domain β1 sequences. Ensembles tested here include an NMR ensemble as well as those generated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, by Backrub motions, and by PertMin, a new method that we developed involving the perturbation of atomic coordinates followed by energy minimization. MSD with the PertMin ensembles resulted in the most accurate predictions by providing the highest number of stable sequences in the top 25, and by correctly binning sequences as stable or unstable with the highest success rate (≈90%) and the lowest number of false positives. The performance of PertMin ensembles is due to the fact that their members closely resemble the input crystal structure and have low potential energy. Conversely, the NMR ensemble as well as those generated by MD simulations at 500 or 1000 K reduced prediction accuracy due to their low structural similarity to the crystal structure. The ensembles tested herein thus represent on- or off-target models of the native protein fold and could be used in future studies to design for desired properties other than stability. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Benefits of an ultra large and multiresolution ensemble for estimating available wind power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Jonas; Hoppe, Charlotte; Elbern, Hendrik

2016-04-01

In this study we investigate the benefits of an ultra large ensemble with up to 1000 members including multiple nesting with a target horizontal resolution of 1 km. The ensemble shall be used as a basis to detect events of extreme errors in wind power forecasting. Forecast value is the wind vector at wind turbine hub height (~ 100 m) in the short range (1 to 24 hour). Current wind power forecast systems rest already on NWP ensemble models. However, only calibrated ensembles from meteorological institutions serve as input so far, with limited spatial resolution (˜10 - 80 km) and member number (˜ 50). Perturbations related to the specific merits of wind power production are yet missing. Thus, single extreme error events which are not detected by such ensemble power forecasts occur infrequently. The numerical forecast model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Model uncertainties are represented by stochastic parametrization of sub-grid processes via stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies and in conjunction via the complementary stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme already provided by WRF. We perform continuous ensemble updates by comparing each ensemble member with available observations using a sequential importance resampling filter to improve the model accuracy while maintaining ensemble spread. Additionally, we use different ensemble systems from global models (ECMWF and GFS) as input and boundary conditions to capture different synoptic conditions. Critical weather situations which are connected to extreme error events are located and corresponding perturbation techniques are applied. The demanding computational effort is overcome by utilising the supercomputer JUQUEEN at the Forschungszentrum Juelich.

On the incidence of meteorological and hydrological processors: Effect of resolution, sharpness and reliability of hydrological ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaza, Mabrouk; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Perreault, Luc

2017-12-01

Meteorological and hydrological ensemble prediction systems are imperfect. Their outputs could often be improved through the use of a statistical processor, opening up the question of the necessity of using both processors (meteorological and hydrological), only one of them, or none. This experiment compares the predictive distributions from four hydrological ensemble prediction systems (H-EPS) utilising the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) probabilistic sequential data assimilation scheme. They differ in the inclusion or not of the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) method for post-processing meteorological forecasts and the ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (ensemble BMA) method for hydrological forecast post-processing. The experiment is implemented on three large watersheds and relies on the combination of two meteorological reforecast products: the 4-member Canadian reforecasts from the Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP) and the 10-member American reforecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), leading to 14 members at each time step. Results show that all four tested H-EPS lead to resolution and sharpness values that are quite similar, with an advantage to DBS + EnKF. The ensemble BMA is unable to compensate for any bias left in the precipitation ensemble forecasts. On the other hand, it succeeds in calibrating ensemble members that are otherwise under-dispersed. If reliability is preferred over resolution and sharpness, DBS + EnKF + ensemble BMA performs best, making use of both processors in the H-EPS system. Conversely, for enhanced resolution and sharpness, DBS is the preferred method.

Improved ensemble-mean forecasting of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic error model of an intermediate coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-04-01

How to design a reliable ensemble prediction strategy with considering the major uncertainties of a forecasting system is a crucial issue for performing an ensemble forecast. In this study, a new stochastic perturbation technique is developed to improve the prediction skills of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through using an intermediate coupled model. We first estimate and analyze the model uncertainties from the ensemble Kalman filter analysis results through assimilating the observed sea surface temperatures. Then, based on the pre-analyzed properties of model errors, we develop a zero-mean stochastic model-error model to characterize the model uncertainties mainly induced by the missed physical processes of the original model (e.g., stochastic atmospheric forcing, extra-tropical effects, Indian Ocean Dipole). Finally, we perturb each member of an ensemble forecast at each step by the developed stochastic model-error model during the 12-month forecasting process, and add the zero-mean perturbations into the physical fields to mimic the presence of missing processes and high-frequency stochastic noises. The impacts of stochastic model-error perturbations on ENSO deterministic predictions are examined by performing two sets of 21-yr hindcast experiments, which are initialized from the same initial conditions and differentiated by whether they consider the stochastic perturbations. The comparison results show that the stochastic perturbations have a significant effect on improving the ensemble-mean prediction skills during the entire 12-month forecasting process. This improvement occurs mainly because the nonlinear terms in the model can form a positive ensemble-mean from a series of zero-mean perturbations, which reduces the forecasting biases and then corrects the forecast through this nonlinear heating mechanism.

A common fallacy in climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.

2012-04-01

We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Comparison of different artificial neural network architectures in modeling of Chlorella sp. flocculation.

PubMed

Zenooz, Alireza Moosavi; Ashtiani, Farzin Zokaee; Ranjbar, Reza; Nikbakht, Fatemeh; Bolouri, Oberon

2017-07-03

Biodiesel production from microalgae feedstock should be performed after growth and harvesting of the cells, and the most feasible method for harvesting and dewatering of microalgae is flocculation. Flocculation modeling can be used for evaluation and prediction of its performance under different affective parameters. However, the modeling of flocculation in microalgae is not simple and has not performed yet, under all experimental conditions, mostly due to different behaviors of microalgae cells during the process under different flocculation conditions. In the current study, the modeling of microalgae flocculation is studied with different neural network architectures. Microalgae species, Chlorella sp., was flocculated with ferric chloride under different conditions and then the experimental data modeled using artificial neural network. Neural network architectures of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function architectures, failed to predict the targets successfully, though, modeling was effective with ensemble architecture of MLP networks. Comparison between the performances of the ensemble and each individual network explains the ability of the ensemble architecture in microalgae flocculation modeling.

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

Lysine acetylation sites prediction using an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers.

PubMed

Xu, Yan; Wang, Xiao-Bo; Ding, Jun; Wu, Ling-Yun; Deng, Nai-Yang

2010-05-07

Lysine acetylation is an essentially reversible and high regulated post-translational modification which regulates diverse protein properties. Experimental identification of acetylation sites is laborious and expensive. Hence, there is significant interest in the development of computational methods for reliable prediction of acetylation sites from amino acid sequences. In this paper we use an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers to perform this work. The experimentally determined acetylation lysine sites are extracted from Swiss-Prot database and scientific literatures. Experiment results show that an ensemble of support vector machine classifiers outperforms single support vector machine classifier and other computational methods such as PAIL and LysAcet on the problem of predicting acetylation lysine sites. The resulting method has been implemented in EnsemblePail, a web server for lysine acetylation sites prediction available at http://www.aporc.org/EnsemblePail/. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Upper and Lower Bounds of the Prediction Accuracies of Ensemble Methods for Binary Classification

PubMed Central

Wang, Xueyi; Davidson, Nicholas J.

2011-01-01

Ensemble methods have been widely used to improve prediction accuracy over individual classifiers. In this paper, we achieve a few results about the prediction accuracies of ensemble methods for binary classification that are missed or misinterpreted in previous literature. First we show the upper and lower bounds of the prediction accuracies (i.e. the best and worst possible prediction accuracies) of ensemble methods. Next we show that an ensemble method can achieve > 0.5 prediction accuracy, while individual classifiers have < 0.5 prediction accuracies. Furthermore, for individual classifiers with different prediction accuracies, the average of the individual accuracies determines the upper and lower bounds. We perform two experiments to verify the results and show that it is hard to achieve the upper and lower bounds accuracies by random individual classifiers and better algorithms need to be developed. PMID:21853162

Differences in the emergent coding properties of cortical and striatal ensembles

PubMed Central

Ma, L.; Hyman, J.M.; Lindsay, A.J.; Phillips, A.G.; Seamans, J.K.

2016-01-01

The function of a given brain region is often defined by the coding properties of its individual neurons, yet how this information is combined at the ensemble level is an equally important consideration. In the present study, multiple neurons from the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the dorsal striatum (DS) were recorded simultaneously as rats performed different sequences of the same three actions. Sequence and lever decoding was remarkably similar on a per-neuron basis in the two regions. At the ensemble level, sequence-specific representations in the DS appeared synchronously but transiently along with the representation of lever location, while these two streams of information appeared independently and asynchronously in the ACC. As a result the ACC achieved superior ensemble decoding accuracy overall. Thus, the manner in which information was combined across neurons in an ensemble determined the functional separation of the ACC and DS on this task. PMID:24974796

A target recognition method for maritime surveillance radars based on hybrid ensemble selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Xueman; Hu, Shengliang; He, Jingbo

2017-11-01

In order to improve the generalisation ability of the maritime surveillance radar, a novel ensemble selection technique, termed Optimisation and Dynamic Selection (ODS), is proposed. During the optimisation phase, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II for multi-objective optimisation is used to find the Pareto front, i.e. a set of ensembles of classifiers representing different tradeoffs between the classification error and diversity. During the dynamic selection phase, the meta-learning method is used to predict whether a candidate ensemble is competent enough to classify a query instance based on three different aspects, namely, feature space, decision space and the extent of consensus. The classification performance and time complexity of ODS are compared against nine other ensemble methods using a self-built full polarimetric high resolution range profile data-set. The experimental results clearly show the effectiveness of ODS. In addition, the influence of the selection of diversity measures is studied concurrently.

Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts (MRED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R. W.

2008-12-01

The Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project was recently initiated to address the question, Can regional climate models provide additional useful information from global seasonal forecasts? MRED will use a suite of regional climate models to downscale seasonal forecasts produced by the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal forecast system and the NASA GEOS5 system. The initial focus will be on wintertime forecasts in order to evaluate topographic forcing, snowmelt, and the potential usefulness of higher resolution, especially for near-surface fields influenced by high resolution orography. Each regional model will cover the conterminous US (CONUS) at approximately 32 km resolution, and will perform an ensemble of 15 runs for each year 1982-2003 for the forecast period 1 December - 30 April. MRED will compare individual regional and global forecasts as well as ensemble mean precipitation and temperature forecasts, which are currently being used to drive macroscale land surface models (LSMs), as well as wind, humidity, radiation, turbulent heat fluxes, which are important for more advanced coupled macro-scale hydrologic models. Metrics of ensemble spread will also be evaluated. Extensive analysis will be performed to link improvements in downscaled forecast skill to regional forcings and physical mechanisms. Our overarching goal is to determine what additional skill can be provided by a community ensemble of high resolution regional models, which we believe will eventually define a strategy for more skillful and useful regional seasonal climate forecasts.

Examining dynamic interactions among experimental factors influencing hydrologic data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Cai, X. M.; Ancell, B. C.; Fan, Y. R.

2017-11-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is recognized as a powerful data assimilation technique that generates an ensemble of model variables through stochastic perturbations of forcing data and observations. However, relatively little guidance exists with regard to the proper specification of the magnitude of the perturbation and the ensemble size, posing a significant challenge in optimally implementing the EnKF. This paper presents a robust data assimilation system (RDAS), in which a multi-factorial design of the EnKF experiments is first proposed for hydrologic ensemble predictions. A multi-way analysis of variance is then used to examine potential interactions among factors affecting the EnKF experiments, achieving optimality of the RDAS with maximized performance of hydrologic predictions. The RDAS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed which is the most representative watershed in China's Three Gorges Reservoir region to demonstrate its validity and applicability. Results reveal that the pairwise interaction between perturbed precipitation and streamflow observations has the most significant impact on the performance of the EnKF system, and their interactions vary dynamically across different settings of the ensemble size and the evapotranspiration perturbation. In addition, the interactions among experimental factors vary greatly in magnitude and direction depending on different statistical metrics for model evaluation including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error. It is thus necessary to test various evaluation metrics in order to enhance the robustness of hydrologic prediction systems.

Addressing model uncertainty through stochastic parameter perturbations within the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, J.; Jankov, I.; Beck, J.; Carson, L.; Frimel, J.; Harrold, M.; Jiang, H.

2016-12-01

It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system for addressing the deficiencies in ensemble modeling is the use of stochastic physics to represent model-related uncertainty. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT), or some combination of all three. The focus of this study is to assess the model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) when using stochastic approaches. For this purpose, the test utilized a single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, with ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary layer scheme. Results will be presented in terms of bias, error, spread, skill, accuracy, reliability, and sharpness using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. Due to the high level of complexity of running a frequently updating (hourly), high spatial resolution (3 km), large domain (CONUS) ensemble system, extensive high performance computing (HPC) resources were needed to meet this objective. Supercomputing resources were provided through the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Strategic Capability (NSC) project support, allowing for a more extensive set of tests over multiple seasons, consequently leading to more robust results. Through the use of these stochastic innovations and powerful supercomputing at NCAR, further insights and advancements in ensemble forecasting at convection-permitting scales will be possible.

An evaluation of soil water outlooks for winter wheat in south-eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Dassanayake, K. B.; Perera, K. C.; Alves, O.; Young, G.; Argent, R.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key limiting resource for rain-fed cropping in Australian broad-acre cropping zones. Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks are standard operational services offered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and are routinely used to support agricultural decisions. This presentation examines the performance of proposed soil water seasonal outlooks in the context of wheat cropping in south-eastern Australia (autumn planting, late spring harvest). We used weather ensembles simulated by the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), as input to the Agricultural Production Simulator (APSIM) to construct ensemble soil water "outlooks" at twenty sites. Hindcasts were made over a 33 year period using the 33 POAMA ensemble members. The overall modelling flow involved: 1. Downscaling of the daily weather series (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, radiation) from the ~250km POAMA grid scale to a local weather station using quantile-quantile correction. This was based on a 33 year observation record extracted from the SILO data drill product. 2. Using APSIM to produce soil water ensembles from the downscaled weather ensembles. A warm up period of 5 years of observed weather was followed by a 9 month hindcast period based on each ensemble member. 3. The soil water ensembles were summarized by estimating the proportion of outlook ensembles in each climatological tercile, where the climatology was constructed using APSIM and observed weather from the 33 years of hindcasts at the relevant site. 4. The soil water outlooks were evaluated for different lead times and months using a "truth" run of APSIM based on observed weather. Outlooks generally have useful some forecast skill for lead times of up to two-three months, except late spring; in line with current useful lead times for rainfall outlooks. Better performance was found in summer and autumn when vegetation cover and water use is low.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Elizabeth; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Mendoza, Pablo; Newman, Andy; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

In an automated forecast system, hydrologic data assimilation (DA) performs the valuable function of correcting raw simulated watershed model states to better represent external observations, including measurements of streamflow, snow, soil moisture, and the like. Yet the incorporation of automated DA into operational forecasting systems has been a long-standing challenge due to the complexities of the hydrologic system, which include numerous lags between state and output variations. To help demonstrate that such methods can succeed in operational automated implementations, we present results from the real-time application of an ensemble particle filter (PF) for short-range (7 day lead) ensemble flow forecasts in western US river basins. We use the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in collaboration with the University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. SHARP is a fully automated platform for short-term to seasonal hydrologic forecasting applications, incorporating uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions through ensemble methods. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 temperature and precipitation time series through conceptual and physically-oriented models. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. The PF selects and/or weights and resamples the IHCs that are most consistent with external streamflow observations, and uses the particles to initialize a streamflow forecast ensemble driven by ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). We apply this method in real-time for several basins in the western US that are important for water resources management, and perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts skill. This presentation describes findings, including a comparison of sequential and non-sequential particle weighting methods.

Assessment of Surface Air Temperature over China Using Multi-criterion Model Ensemble Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhu, Q.; Su, L.; He, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are designed to simulate the present climate and project future trends. It has been noticed that the performances of GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over different regions. Model ensemble techniques have been developed to post-process the GCMs' outputs and improve their prediction reliabilities. To evaluate the performances of GCMs, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and uncertainty are commonly used statistical measures. However, the simultaneous achievements of these satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed when using many model ensemble techniques. Meanwhile, uncertainties and future scenarios are critical for Water-Energy management and operation. In this study, a new multi-model ensemble framework was proposed. It uses a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm, termed Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization with Principle Component Analysis and Crowding Distance (MOSPD), to derive optimal GCM ensembles and demonstrate the trade-offs among various solutions. Such trade-off information was further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistical measures. A case study was conducted to optimize the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over seven geographical regions of China for the historical period (1900-2005) and future projection (2006-2100). The results showed that the ensemble solutions derived with MOSPD algorithm are superior over the simple model average and any single model output during the historical simulation period. For the future prediction, the proposed ensemble framework identified that the largest SAT change would occur in the South Central China under RCP 2.6 scenario, North Eastern China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and North Western China under RCP 8.5 scenario, while the smallest SAT change would occur in the Inner Mongolia under RCP 2.6 scenario, South Central China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and South Central China under RCP 8.5 scenario.

Towards a common oil spill risk assessment framework – Adapting ISO 31000 and addressing uncertainties.

PubMed

Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Pinardi, Nadia; Martins, Flavio; Janeiro, Joao; Samaras, Achilleas; Zodiatis, George; De Dominicis, Michela

2015-08-15

Oil spills are a transnational problem, and establishing a common standard methodology for Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) is thus paramount in order to protect marine environments and coastal communities. In this study we firstly identified the strengths and weaknesses of the OSRAs carried out in various parts of the globe. We then searched for a generic and recognized standard, i.e. ISO 31000, in order to design a method to perform OSRAs in a scientific and standard way. The new framework was tested for the Lebanon oil spill that occurred in 2006 employing ensemble oil spill modeling to quantify the risks and uncertainties due to unknown spill characteristics. The application of the framework generated valuable visual instruments for the transparent communication of the risks, replacing the use of risk tolerance levels, and thus highlighting the priority areas to protect in case of an oil spill. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple new filter for nonlinear high-dimensional data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tödter, Julian; Kirchgessner, Paul; Ahrens, Bodo

2015-04-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and its deterministic variants, mostly square root filters such as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), represent a popular alternative to variational data assimilation schemes and are applied in a wide range of operational and research activities. Their forecast step employs an ensemble integration that fully respects the nonlinear nature of the analyzed system. In the analysis step, they implicitly assume the prior state and observation errors to be Gaussian. Consequently, in nonlinear systems, the analysis mean and covariance are biased, and these filters remain suboptimal. In contrast, the fully nonlinear, non-Gaussian particle filter (PF) only relies on Bayes' theorem, which guarantees an exact asymptotic behavior, but because of the so-called curse of dimensionality it is exposed to weight collapse. This work shows how to obtain a new analysis ensemble whose mean and covariance exactly match the Bayesian estimates. This is achieved by a deterministic matrix square root transformation of the forecast ensemble, and subsequently a suitable random rotation that significantly contributes to filter stability while preserving the required second-order statistics. The forecast step remains as in the ETKF. The proposed algorithm, which is fairly easy to implement and computationally efficient, is referred to as the nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF). The properties and performance of the proposed algorithm are investigated via a set of Lorenz experiments. They indicate that such a filter formulation can increase the analysis quality, even for relatively small ensemble sizes, compared to other ensemble filters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios. Furthermore, localization enhances the potential applicability of this PF-inspired scheme in larger-dimensional systems. Finally, the novel algorithm is coupled to a large-scale ocean general circulation model. The NETF is stable, behaves reasonably and shows a good performance with a realistic ensemble size. The results confirm that, in principle, it can be applied successfully and as simple as the ETKF in high-dimensional problems without further modifications of the algorithm, even though it is only based on the particle weights. This proves that the suggested method constitutes a useful filter for nonlinear, high-dimensional data assimilation, and is able to overcome the curse of dimensionality even in deterministic systems.

Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.

2014-12-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Image Change Detection via Ensemble Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Benjamin W; Vatsavai, Raju

2013-01-01

The concept of geographic change detection is relevant in many areas. Changes in geography can reveal much information about a particular location. For example, analysis of changes in geography can identify regions of population growth, change in land use, and potential environmental disturbance. A common way to perform change detection is to use a simple method such as differencing to detect regions of change. Though these techniques are simple, often the application of these techniques is very limited. Recently, use of machine learning methods such as neural networks for change detection has been explored with great success. In this work,more » we explore the use of ensemble learning methodologies for detecting changes in bitemporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Ensemble learning uses a collection of weak machine learning classifiers to create a stronger classifier which has higher accuracy than the individual classifiers in the ensemble. The strength of the ensemble lies in the fact that the individual classifiers in the ensemble create a mixture of experts in which the final classification made by the ensemble classifier is calculated from the outputs of the individual classifiers. Our methodology leverages this aspect of ensemble learning by training collections of weak decision tree based classifiers to identify regions of change in SAR images collected of a region in the Staten Island, New York area during Hurricane Sandy. Preliminary studies show that the ensemble method has approximately 11.5% higher change detection accuracy than an individual classifier.« less

Ensemble prediction of air quality using the WRF/CMAQ model system for health effect studies in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jianlin; Li, Xun; Huang, Lin; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhang, Hongliang

2017-11-01

Accurate exposure estimates are required for health effect analyses of severe air pollution in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to provide spatial distribution, chemical composition, particle size fractions, and source origins of air pollutants. The accuracy of air quality predictions in China is greatly affected by the uncertainties of emission inventories. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used in this study to simulate air pollutants in China in 2013. Four simulations were conducted with four different anthropogenic emission inventories, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the Emission Inventory for China by School of Environment at Tsinghua University (SOE), the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), and the Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2 (REAS2). Model performance of each simulation was evaluated against available observation data from 422 sites in 60 cities across China. Model predictions of O3 and PM2.5 generally meet the model performance criteria, but performance differences exist in different regions, for different pollutants, and among inventories. Ensemble predictions were calculated by linearly combining the results from different inventories to minimize the sum of the squared errors between the ensemble results and the observations in all cities. The ensemble concentrations show improved agreement with observations in most cities. The mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional errors (MFEs) of the ensemble annual PM2.5 in the 60 cities are -0.11 and 0.24, respectively, which are better than the MFB (-0.25 to -0.16) and MFE (0.26-0.31) of individual simulations. The ensemble annual daily maximum 1 h O3 (O3-1h) concentrations are also improved, with mean normalized bias (MNB) of 0.03 and mean normalized errors (MNE) of 0.14, compared to MNB of 0.06-0.19 and MNE of 0.16-0.22 of the individual predictions. The ensemble predictions agree better with observations with daily, monthly, and annual averaging times in all regions of China for both PM2.5 and O3-1h. The study demonstrates that ensemble predictions from combining predictions from individual emission inventories can improve the accuracy of predicted temporal and spatial distributions of air pollutants. This study is the first ensemble model study in China using multiple emission inventories, and the results are publicly available for future health effect studies.

Computer-aided classification of breast microcalcification clusters: merging of features from image processing and radiologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Joseph Y.; Gavrielides, Marios A.; Markey, Mia K.; Jesneck, Jonathan L.

2003-05-01

We developed an ensemble classifier for the task of computer-aided diagnosis of breast microcalcification clusters,which are very challenging to characterize for radiologists and computer models alike. The purpose of this study is to help radiologists identify whether suspicious calcification clusters are benign vs. malignant, such that they may potentially recommend fewer unnecessary biopsies for actually benign lesions. The data consists of mammographic features extracted by automated image processing algorithms as well as manually interpreted by radiologists according to a standardized lexicon. We used 292 cases from a publicly available mammography database. From each cases, we extracted 22 image processing features pertaining to lesion morphology, 5 radiologist features also pertaining to morphology, and the patient age. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) models were designed using each of the three data types. Each local model performed poorly; the best was one based upon image processing features which yielded ROC area index AZ of 0.59 +/- 0.03 and partial AZ above 90% sensitivity of 0.08 +/- 0.03. We then developed ensemble models using different combinations of those data types, and these models all improved performance compared to the local models. The final ensemble model was based upon 5 features selected by stepwise LDA from all 28 available features. This ensemble performed with AZ of 0.69 +/- 0.03 and partial AZ of 0.21 +/- 0.04, which was statistically significantly better than the model based on the image processing features alone (p<0.001 and p=0.01 for full and partial AZ respectively). This demonstrated the value of the radiologist-extracted features as a source of information for this task. It also suggested there is potential for improved performance using this ensemble classifier approach to combine different sources of currently available data.

Random forests ensemble classifier trained with data resampling strategy to improve cardiac arrhythmia diagnosis.

PubMed

Ozçift, Akin

2011-05-01

Supervised classification algorithms are commonly used in the designing of computer-aided diagnosis systems. In this study, we present a resampling strategy based Random Forests (RF) ensemble classifier to improve diagnosis of cardiac arrhythmia. Random forests is an ensemble classifier that consists of many decision trees and outputs the class that is the mode of the class's output by individual trees. In this way, an RF ensemble classifier performs better than a single tree from classification performance point of view. In general, multiclass datasets having unbalanced distribution of sample sizes are difficult to analyze in terms of class discrimination. Cardiac arrhythmia is such a dataset that has multiple classes with small sample sizes and it is therefore adequate to test our resampling based training strategy. The dataset contains 452 samples in fourteen types of arrhythmias and eleven of these classes have sample sizes less than 15. Our diagnosis strategy consists of two parts: (i) a correlation based feature selection algorithm is used to select relevant features from cardiac arrhythmia dataset. (ii) RF machine learning algorithm is used to evaluate the performance of selected features with and without simple random sampling to evaluate the efficiency of proposed training strategy. The resultant accuracy of the classifier is found to be 90.0% and this is a quite high diagnosis performance for cardiac arrhythmia. Furthermore, three case studies, i.e., thyroid, cardiotocography and audiology, are used to benchmark the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results of experiments demonstrated the efficiency of random sampling strategy in training RF ensemble classification algorithm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intentions and Perceptions: In Search of Alignment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sindberg, Laura K.

2009-01-01

Teachers plan for instruction in band, choir, and orchestra; this typically includes selecting repertoire and planning outcomes and strategies for achieving those goals with a vision toward excellent musical performance. Teachers in school music ensembles plan instruction that will lead to student learning. In the ensemble setting, this learning…

Conceptualizing Conceptual Teaching: Practical Strategies for Large Instrumental Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Leonard

2016-01-01

Half a century ago, calls had already been made for instrumental ensemble directors to move beyond performance to include the teaching of musical concepts in the rehearsal hall. Relatively recent research, however, suggests that conceptual teaching remains relatively infrequent during rehearsals. Given the importance of teaching for long-term…

Classroom Environment as Related to Contest Ratings among High School Performing Ensembles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamann, Donald L.; And Others

1990-01-01

Examines influence of classroom environments, measured by the Classroom Environment Scale, Form R (CESR), on vocal and instrumental ensembles' musical achievement at festival contests. Using random sample, reveals subjects with higher scores on CESR scales of involvement, affiliation, teacher support, and organization received better contest…

Curious, Collaborative, Creativity: Applying Student-Centered Principles to Performing Ensembles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilbert, Danni

2016-01-01

This article explores a comprehensive, student-centered alternative to traditional ensemble instruction with the goal of promoting better opportunities for musical independence and lifelong musicianship. Developed by Caron Collins from the Crane School of Music at the State University of New York-Potsdam, the Curious, Collaborative, Creativity…

Development of isothermal-isobaric replica-permutation method for molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations and its application to reveal temperature and pressure dependence of folded, misfolded, and unfolded states of chignolin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamauchi, Masataka; Okumura, Hisashi

2017-11-01

We developed a two-dimensional replica-permutation molecular dynamics method in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble. The replica-permutation method is a better alternative to the replica-exchange method. It was originally developed in the canonical ensemble. This method employs the Suwa-Todo algorithm, instead of the Metropolis algorithm, to perform permutations of temperatures and pressures among more than two replicas so that the rejection ratio can be minimized. We showed that the isothermal-isobaric replica-permutation method performs better sampling efficiency than the isothermal-isobaric replica-exchange method and infinite swapping method. We applied this method to a β-hairpin mini protein, chignolin. In this simulation, we observed not only the folded state but also the misfolded state. We calculated the temperature and pressure dependence of the fractions on the folded, misfolded, and unfolded states. Differences in partial molar enthalpy, internal energy, entropy, partial molar volume, and heat capacity were also determined and agreed well with experimental data. We observed a new phenomenon that misfolded chignolin becomes more stable under high-pressure conditions. We also revealed this mechanism of the stability as follows: TYR2 and TRP9 side chains cover the hydrogen bonds that form a β-hairpin structure. The hydrogen bonds are protected from the water molecules that approach the protein as the pressure increases.

Cosolvent-Based Molecular Dynamics for Ensemble Docking: Practical Method for Generating Druggable Protein Conformations.

PubMed

Uehara, Shota; Tanaka, Shigenori

2017-04-24

Protein flexibility is a major hurdle in current structure-based virtual screening (VS). In spite of the recent advances in high-performance computing, protein-ligand docking methods still demand tremendous computational cost to take into account the full degree of protein flexibility. In this context, ensemble docking has proven its utility and efficiency for VS studies, but it still needs a rational and efficient method to select and/or generate multiple protein conformations. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are useful to produce distinct protein conformations without abundant experimental structures. In this study, we present a novel strategy that makes use of cosolvent-based molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations for ensemble docking. By mixing small organic molecules into a solvent, CMD can stimulate dynamic protein motions and induce partial conformational changes of binding pocket residues appropriate for the binding of diverse ligands. The present method has been applied to six diverse target proteins and assessed by VS experiments using many actives and decoys of DEKOIS 2.0. The simulation results have revealed that the CMD is beneficial for ensemble docking. Utilizing cosolvent simulation allows the generation of druggable protein conformations, improving the VS performance compared with the use of a single experimental structure or ensemble docking by standard MD with pure water as the solvent.

BagMOOV: A novel ensemble for heart disease prediction bootstrap aggregation with multi-objective optimized voting.

PubMed

Bashir, Saba; Qamar, Usman; Khan, Farhan Hassan

2015-06-01

Conventional clinical decision support systems are based on individual classifiers or simple combination of these classifiers which tend to show moderate performance. This research paper presents a novel classifier ensemble framework based on enhanced bagging approach with multi-objective weighted voting scheme for prediction and analysis of heart disease. The proposed model overcomes the limitations of conventional performance by utilizing an ensemble of five heterogeneous classifiers: Naïve Bayes, linear regression, quadratic discriminant analysis, instance based learner and support vector machines. Five different datasets are used for experimentation, evaluation and validation. The datasets are obtained from publicly available data repositories. Effectiveness of the proposed ensemble is investigated by comparison of results with several classifiers. Prediction results of the proposed ensemble model are assessed by ten fold cross validation and ANOVA statistics. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed framework deals with all type of attributes and achieved high diagnosis accuracy of 84.16 %, 93.29 % sensitivity, 96.70 % specificity, and 82.15 % f-measure. The f-ratio higher than f-critical and p value less than 0.05 for 95 % confidence interval indicate that the results are extremely statistically significant for most of the datasets.

Transient Calibration of a Variably-Saturated Groundwater Flow Model By Iterative Ensemble Smoothering: Synthetic Case and Application to the Flow Induced During Shaft Excavation and Operation of the Bure Underground Research Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, D. T.; Kerrou, J.; Benabderrahmane, H.; Perrochet, P.

2017-12-01

The calibration of groundwater flow models in transient state can be motivated by the expected improved characterization of the aquifer hydraulic properties, especially when supported by a rich transient dataset. In the prospect of setting up a calibration strategy for a variably-saturated transient groundwater flow model of the area around the ANDRA's Bure Underground Research Laboratory, we wish to take advantage of the long hydraulic head and flowrate time series collected near and at the access shafts in order to help inform the model hydraulic parameters. A promising inverse approach for such high-dimensional nonlinear model, and which applicability has been illustrated more extensively in other scientific fields, could be an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm initially developed for a reservoir engineering problem. Furthermore, the ensemble-based stochastic framework will allow to address to some extent the uncertainty of the calibration for a subsequent analysis of a flow process dependent prediction. By assimilating the available data in one single step, this method iteratively updates each member of an initial ensemble of stochastic realizations of parameters until the minimization of an objective function. However, as it is well known for ensemble-based Kalman methods, this correction computed from approximations of covariance matrices is most efficient when the ensemble realizations are multi-Gaussian. As shown by the comparison of the updated ensemble mean obtained for our simplified synthetic model of 2D vertical flow by using either multi-Gaussian or multipoint simulations of parameters, the ensemble smoother fails to preserve the initial connectivity of the facies and the parameter bimodal distribution. Given the geological structures depicted by the multi-layered geological model built for the real case, our goal is to find how to still best leverage the performance of the ensemble smoother while using an initial ensemble of conditional multi-Gaussian simulations or multipoint simulations as conceptually consistent as possible. Performance of the algorithm including additional steps to help mitigate the effects of non-Gaussian patterns, such as Gaussian anamorphosis, or resampling of facies from the training image using updated local probability constraints will be assessed.

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Felice, Matteo De; Catalano, Franco; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin-Ho; Weisheimer, Antije

2018-04-01

Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. The above results demonstrate for the first time the potential of the Grand MME to significantly contribute in obtaining useful predictions at the seasonal time-scale.

Practicality of performing medical procedures in chemical protective ensembles.

PubMed

Garner, Alan; Laurence, Helen; Lee, Anna

2004-04-01

To determine whether certain life saving medical procedures can be successfully performed while wearing different levels of personal protective equipment (PPE), and whether these procedures can be performed in a clinically useful time frame. We assessed the capability of eight medical personnel to perform airway maintenance and antidote administration procedures on manikins, in all four described levels of PPE. The levels are: Level A--a fully encapsulated chemically resistant suit; Level B--a chemically resistant suit, gloves and boots with a full-faced positive pressure supplied air respirator; Level C--a chemically resistant splash suit, boots and gloves with an air-purifying positive or negative pressure respirator; Level D--a work uniform. Time in seconds to inflate the lungs of the manikin with bag-valve-mask, laryngeal mask airway (LMA) and endotracheal tube (ETT) were determined, as was the time to secure LMAs and ETTs with either tape or linen ties. Time to insert a cannula in a manikin was also determined. There was a significant difference in time taken to perform procedures in differing levels of personal protective equipment (F21,72 = 1.75, P = 0.04). Significant differences were found in: time to lung inflation using an endotracheal tube (A vs. C mean difference and standard error 75.6 +/- 23.9 s, P = 0.03; A vs. D mean difference and standard error 78.6 +/- 23.9 s, P = 0.03); time to insert a cannula (A vs. D mean difference and standard error 63.6 +/- 11.1 s, P < 0.001; C vs. D mean difference and standard error 40.0 +/- 11.1 s, P = 0.01). A significantly greater time to complete procedures was documented in Level A PPE (fully encapsulated suits) compared with Levels C and D. There was however, no significant difference in times between Level B and Level C. The common practice of equipping hospital and medical staff with only Level C protection should be re-evaluated.

Nonlinear resonances in linear segmented Paul trap of short central segment.

PubMed

Kłosowski, Łukasz; Piwiński, Mariusz; Pleskacz, Katarzyna; Wójtewicz, Szymon; Lisak, Daniel

2018-03-23

Linear segmented Paul trap system has been prepared for ion mass spectroscopy experiments. A non-standard approach to stability of trapped ions is applied to explain some effects observed with ensembles of calcium ions. Trap's stability diagram is extended to 3-dimensional one using additional ∆a besides standard q and a stability parameters. Nonlinear resonances in (q,∆a) diagrams are observed and described with a proposed model. The resonance lines have been identified using simple simulations and comparing the numerical and experimental results. The phenomenon can be applied in electron-impact ionization experiments for mass-identification of obtained ions or purification of their ensembles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Negative correlation learning for customer churn prediction: a comparison study.

PubMed

Rodan, Ali; Fayyoumi, Ayham; Faris, Hossam; Alsakran, Jamal; Al-Kadi, Omar

2015-01-01

Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis.

Aerosol EnKF at GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchard, Virginie; Da Silva, Arlindo; Todling, Ricardo

2017-01-01

In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASAs Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. In line with the transition of the GEOS meteorological data assimilation system to a hybrid Ensemble-Variational formulation, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF; Whitaker and Hamill (2002)) type of scheme.We present a summary of our preliminary results of the assimilation of column integrated aerosol observations (Aerosol Optical Depth; AOD) using an Ensemble Square Root Filters (EnSRF) scheme and the ensemble members produced routinely by the meteorological assimilation.

Coherently coupling distinct spin ensembles through a high critical temperature superconducting resonator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghirri, Alberto; Bonizzoni, Claudio; Troiani, Filippo; Affronte, Marco

The problem of coupling remote ensembles of two-level systems through cavity photons is revisited by using molecular spin centers and a high critical temperature superconducting coplanar resonator. By using PyBTM organic radicals, we achieved the strong coupling regime with values of the cooperativity reaching 4300 at 2 K. We show that up to three distinct spin ensembles are simultaneously coupled through the resonator mode. The ensembles are made physically distinguishable by chemically varying the g-factor and by exploiting the inhomogeneities of the applied magnetic field. The coherent mixing of the spin and field modes is demonstrated by the observed multiple anticrossing, along with the simulations performed within the input-output formalism, and quantified by suitable entropic measures.

Ensemble framework based real-time respiratory motion prediction for adaptive radiotherapy applications.

PubMed

Tatinati, Sivanagaraja; Nazarpour, Kianoush; Tech Ang, Wei; Veluvolu, Kalyana C

2016-08-01

Successful treatment of tumors with motion-adaptive radiotherapy requires accurate prediction of respiratory motion, ideally with a prediction horizon larger than the latency in radiotherapy system. Accurate prediction of respiratory motion is however a non-trivial task due to the presence of irregularities and intra-trace variabilities, such as baseline drift and temporal changes in fundamental frequency pattern. In this paper, to enhance the accuracy of the respiratory motion prediction, we propose a stacked regression ensemble framework that integrates heterogeneous respiratory motion prediction algorithms. We further address two crucial issues for developing a successful ensemble framework: (1) selection of appropriate prediction methods to ensemble (level-0 methods) among the best existing prediction methods; and (2) finding a suitable generalization approach that can successfully exploit the relative advantages of the chosen level-0 methods. The efficacy of the developed ensemble framework is assessed with real respiratory motion traces acquired from 31 patients undergoing treatment. Results show that the developed ensemble framework improves the prediction performance significantly compared to the best existing methods. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of weak polyelectrolytes: a comparison between the constant pH and the reaction ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landsgesell, Jonas; Holm, Christian; Smiatek, Jens

2017-03-01

The reaction ensemble and the constant pH method are well-known chemical equilibrium approaches to simulate protonation and deprotonation reactions in classical molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, we demonstrate the similarity between both methods under certain conditions. We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a weak polyelectrolyte in order to compare the titration curves obtained by both approaches. Our findings reveal a good agreement between the methods when the reaction ensemble is used to sweep the reaction constant. Pronounced differences between the reaction ensemble and the constant pH method can be observed for stronger acids and bases in terms of adaptive pH values. These deviations are due to the presence of explicit protons in the reaction ensemble method which induce a screening of electrostatic interactions between the charged titrable groups of the polyelectrolyte. The outcomes of our simulation hint to a better applicability of the reaction ensemble method for systems in confined geometries and titrable groups in polyelectrolytes with different pKa values.

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each stati

Comparison of modeling methods to predict the spatial distribution of deep-sea coral and sponge in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooper, Christopher N.; Zimmermann, Mark; Prescott, Megan M.

2017-08-01

Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska's marine waters, and are associated with many different species of fishes and invertebrates. These ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities and climate change. We compared four commonly used species distribution models (general linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees and random forest models) and an ensemble model to predict the presence or absence and abundance of six groups of benthic invertebrate taxa in the Gulf of Alaska. All four model types performed adequately on training data for predicting presence and absence, with regression forest models having the best overall performance measured by the area under the receiver-operating-curve (AUC). The models also performed well on the test data for presence and absence with average AUCs ranging from 0.66 to 0.82. For the test data, ensemble models performed the best. For abundance data, there was an obvious demarcation in performance between the two regression-based methods (general linear models and generalized additive models), and the tree-based models. The boosted regression tree and random forest models out-performed the other models by a wide margin on both the training and testing data. However, there was a significant drop-off in performance for all models of invertebrate abundance ( 50%) when moving from the training data to the testing data. Ensemble model performance was between the tree-based and regression-based methods. The maps of predictions from the models for both presence and abundance agreed very well across model types, with an increase in variability in predictions for the abundance data. We conclude that where data conforms well to the modeled distribution (such as the presence-absence data and binomial distribution in this study), the four types of models will provide similar results, although the regression-type models may be more consistent with biological theory. For data with highly zero-inflated distributions and non-normal distributions such as the abundance data from this study, the tree-based methods performed better. Ensemble models that averaged predictions across the four model types, performed better than the GLM or GAM models but slightly poorer than the tree-based methods, suggesting ensemble models might be more robust to overfitting than tree methods, while mitigating some of the disadvantages in predictive performance of regression methods.

Simulating ensembles of source water quality using a K-nearest neighbor resampling approach.

PubMed

Towler, Erin; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Seidel, Chad; Summers, R Scott

2009-03-01

Climatological, geological, and water management factors can cause significant variability in surface water quality. As drinking water quality standards become more stringent, the ability to quantify the variability of source water quality becomes more important for decision-making and planning in water treatment for regulatory compliance. However, paucity of long-term water quality data makes it challenging to apply traditional simulation techniques. To overcome this limitation, we have developed and applied a robust nonparametric K-nearest neighbor (K-nn) bootstrap approach utilizing the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Information Collection Rule (ICR) data. In this technique, first an appropriate "feature vector" is formed from the best available explanatory variables. The nearest neighbors to the feature vector are identified from the ICR data and are resampled using a weight function. Repetition of this results in water quality ensembles, and consequently the distribution and the quantification of the variability. The main strengths of the approach are its flexibility, simplicity, and the ability to use a large amount of spatial data with limited temporal extent to provide water quality ensembles for any given location. We demonstrate this approach by applying it to simulate monthly ensembles of total organic carbon for two utilities in the U.S. with very different watersheds and to alkalinity and bromide at two other U.S. utilities.

Calibration of limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts for hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Montani, Andrea; Nerozzi, Fabrizio; Paccagnella, Tiziana

2015-04-01

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of calibration for limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts, to be used for driving discharge predictions up to 5 days in advance. A reforecast dataset, which spans 30 years, based on the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS) was used for testing the calibration strategy. Three calibration techniques were applied: quantile-to-quantile mapping, linear regression, and analogs. The performance of these methodologies was evaluated in terms of statistical scores for the precipitation forecasts operationally provided by COSMO-LEPS in the years 2003-2007 over Germany, Switzerland, and the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy). The analog-based method seemed to be preferred because of its capability of correct position errors and spread deficiencies. A suitable spatial domain for the analog search can help to handle model spatial errors as systematic errors. However, the performance of the analog-based method may degrade in cases where a limited training dataset is available. A sensitivity test on the length of the training dataset over which to perform the analog search has been performed. The quantile-to-quantile mapping and linear regression methods were less effective, mainly because the forecast-analysis relation was not so strong for the available training dataset. A comparison between the calibration based on the deterministic reforecast and the calibration based on the full operational ensemble used as training dataset has been considered, with the aim to evaluate whether reforecasts are really worthy for calibration, given that their computational cost is remarkable. The verification of the calibration process was then performed by coupling ensemble precipitation forecasts with a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This test was carried out for a medium-sized catchment located in Emilia-Romagna, showing a beneficial impact of the analog-based method on the reduction of missed events for discharge predictions.

Effect of Conductor Expressivity on Ensemble Evaluations by Nonmusic Majors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Harry E.; Mann, Alison; Morrison, Steven J.

2016-01-01

This study continues research that examines effects that conductors have on the assessment of ensemble performances. The current study used the same four recordings orders of two strict and two expressive examples by two conductors with a single repeated recording used in previous research, but the participants were not music majors. In addition…

Performance and Applications of an Ensemble of Atomic Fountains

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

continuous operation. At some institutions, only one fountain clock contributes to the ensemble at a given time, although two clocks at PTB and three at...at USNO is funded by SPAWAR. REFERENCES [1] A. Bauch, S. Weyers, D. Piester, E. Staliuniene, and W. Yang, “Generation of UTC( PTB ) as a fountain

Evaluative and Behavioral Correlates to Intrarehearsal Achievement in High School Bands

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montemayor, Mark

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships of teaching effectiveness, ensemble performance quality, and selected rehearsal procedures to various measures of intrarehearsal achievement (i.e., musical improvement exhibited by an ensemble during the course of a single rehearsal). Twenty-nine high school bands were observed in two…

A fuzzy integral method based on the ensemble of neural networks to analyze fMRI data for cognitive state classification across multiple subjects.

PubMed

Cacha, L A; Parida, S; Dehuri, S; Cho, S-B; Poznanski, R R

2016-12-01

The huge number of voxels in fMRI over time poses a major challenge to for effective analysis. Fast, accurate, and reliable classifiers are required for estimating the decoding accuracy of brain activities. Although machine-learning classifiers seem promising, individual classifiers have their own limitations. To address this limitation, the present paper proposes a method based on the ensemble of neural networks to analyze fMRI data for cognitive state classification for application across multiple subjects. Similarly, the fuzzy integral (FI) approach has been employed as an efficient tool for combining different classifiers. The FI approach led to the development of a classifiers ensemble technique that performs better than any of the single classifier by reducing the misclassification, the bias, and the variance. The proposed method successfully classified the different cognitive states for multiple subjects with high accuracy of classification. Comparison of the performance improvement, while applying ensemble neural networks method, vs. that of the individual neural network strongly points toward the usefulness of the proposed method.

Clustering-Based Ensemble Learning for Activity Recognition in Smart Homes

PubMed Central

Jurek, Anna; Nugent, Chris; Bi, Yaxin; Wu, Shengli

2014-01-01

Application of sensor-based technology within activity monitoring systems is becoming a popular technique within the smart environment paradigm. Nevertheless, the use of such an approach generates complex constructs of data, which subsequently requires the use of intricate activity recognition techniques to automatically infer the underlying activity. This paper explores a cluster-based ensemble method as a new solution for the purposes of activity recognition within smart environments. With this approach activities are modelled as collections of clusters built on different subsets of features. A classification process is performed by assigning a new instance to its closest cluster from each collection. Two different sensor data representations have been investigated, namely numeric and binary. Following the evaluation of the proposed methodology it has been demonstrated that the cluster-based ensemble method can be successfully applied as a viable option for activity recognition. Results following exposure to data collected from a range of activities indicated that the ensemble method had the ability to perform with accuracies of 94.2% and 97.5% for numeric and binary data, respectively. These results outperformed a range of single classifiers considered as benchmarks. PMID:25014095

Clustering-based ensemble learning for activity recognition in smart homes.

PubMed

Jurek, Anna; Nugent, Chris; Bi, Yaxin; Wu, Shengli

2014-07-10

Application of sensor-based technology within activity monitoring systems is becoming a popular technique within the smart environment paradigm. Nevertheless, the use of such an approach generates complex constructs of data, which subsequently requires the use of intricate activity recognition techniques to automatically infer the underlying activity. This paper explores a cluster-based ensemble method as a new solution for the purposes of activity recognition within smart environments. With this approach activities are modelled as collections of clusters built on different subsets of features. A classification process is performed by assigning a new instance to its closest cluster from each collection. Two different sensor data representations have been investigated, namely numeric and binary. Following the evaluation of the proposed methodology it has been demonstrated that the cluster-based ensemble method can be successfully applied as a viable option for activity recognition. Results following exposure to data collected from a range of activities indicated that the ensemble method had the ability to perform with accuracies of 94.2% and 97.5% for numeric and binary data, respectively. These results outperformed a range of single classifiers considered as benchmarks.

Reliability of the North America CORDEX and NARCCAP simulations in the context of uncertainty in regional climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmalkar, A.

2017-12-01

Ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate change simulations are routinely used to capture uncertainty in projections at regional scales. I assess the reliability of two such ensembles for North America - NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX - by investigating the impact of model selection on representing uncertainty in regional projections, and the ability of the regional climate models (RCMs) to provide reliable information. These aspects - discussed for the six regions used in the US National Climate Assessment - provide an important perspective on the interpretation of downscaled results. I show that selecting general circulation models for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable choice, but the six models chosen for NA-CORDEX do a poor job at representing uncertainty in winter temperature and precipitation projections in many parts of the eastern US, which lead to overconfident projections. The RCM performance is highly variable across models, regions, and seasons and the ability of the RCMs to provide improved seasonal mean performance relative to their parent GCMs seems limited in both RCM ensembles. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate historical climates is not strongly related to their ability to simulate climate change across the ensemble. This finding suggests limited use of models' historical performance to constrain their projections. Given these challenges in dynamical downscaling, the RCM results should not be used in isolation. Information on how well the RCM ensembles represent known uncertainties in regional climate change projections discussed here needs to be communicated clearly to inform maagement decisions.

Blend in Singing Ensemble Performance: Vibrato Production in a Vocal Quartet.

PubMed

Daffern, Helena

2017-05-01

"Blend" is a defining characteristic of good vocal ensemble performance. To achieve this, directors often consider vibrato as a feature to be controlled and consequently restrict its use. Analysis of individual voices in ensemble situations presents several challenges, including the isolation of voices for analysis from recordings. This study considers vibrato production as a feature that contributes to blend through an ecological study of a vocal quartet. A vocal ensemble was recorded using head-worn microphones and electrolaryngograph electrodes to enable fundamental frequency analysis of the individual voices. The same four-part material was recorded over several weeks of rehearsal to allow analysis of conscious and subconscious changes to vibrato production over time. Alongside the recording of their rehearsal discussions, singers were also asked for opinions on vibrato production in connection with blend. The results indicate that vibrato is adjusted to some extent by individual singers to improve blend, with some instances of synchrony between voice parts. Some conscious alterations to vibrato were made to improve blend; however, these are not always evident in the data, suggesting that singers' own perceptions of their performance may be influenced by other factors. These findings indicate a need for further studies of vibrato as a feature of blend, particularly in terms of the synergies between expectation and actual production, and potential synchronicity between singers; increased understanding of vibrato in an ensemble setting will lead to more efficient rehearsal techniques and vocal training, and could prevent vocal misuse leading to pathology in the future. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reprint of "Investigating ensemble perception of emotions in autistic and typical children and adolescents".

PubMed

Karaminis, Themelis; Neil, Louise; Manning, Catherine; Turi, Marco; Fiorentini, Chiara; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2018-01-01

Ensemble perception, the ability to assess automatically the summary of large amounts of information presented in visual scenes, is available early in typical development. This ability might be compromised in autistic children, who are thought to present limitations in maintaining summary statistics representations for the recent history of sensory input. Here we examined ensemble perception of facial emotional expressions in 35 autistic children, 30 age- and ability-matched typical children and 25 typical adults. Participants received three tasks: a) an 'ensemble' emotion discrimination task; b) a baseline (single-face) emotion discrimination task; and c) a facial expression identification task. Children performed worse than adults on all three tasks. Unexpectedly, autistic and typical children were, on average, indistinguishable in their precision and accuracy on all three tasks. Computational modelling suggested that, on average, autistic and typical children used ensemble-encoding strategies to a similar extent; but ensemble perception was related to non-verbal reasoning abilities in autistic but not in typical children. Eye-movement data also showed no group differences in the way children attended to the stimuli. Our combined findings suggest that the abilities of autistic and typical children for ensemble perception of emotions are comparable on average. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ensemble perception of emotions in autistic and typical children and adolescents.

PubMed

Karaminis, Themelis; Neil, Louise; Manning, Catherine; Turi, Marco; Fiorentini, Chiara; Burr, David; Pellicano, Elizabeth

2017-04-01

Ensemble perception, the ability to assess automatically the summary of large amounts of information presented in visual scenes, is available early in typical development. This ability might be compromised in autistic children, who are thought to present limitations in maintaining summary statistics representations for the recent history of sensory input. Here we examined ensemble perception of facial emotional expressions in 35 autistic children, 30 age- and ability-matched typical children and 25 typical adults. Participants received three tasks: a) an 'ensemble' emotion discrimination task; b) a baseline (single-face) emotion discrimination task; and c) a facial expression identification task. Children performed worse than adults on all three tasks. Unexpectedly, autistic and typical children were, on average, indistinguishable in their precision and accuracy on all three tasks. Computational modelling suggested that, on average, autistic and typical children used ensemble-encoding strategies to a similar extent; but ensemble perception was related to non-verbal reasoning abilities in autistic but not in typical children. Eye-movement data also showed no group differences in the way children attended to the stimuli. Our combined findings suggest that the abilities of autistic and typical children for ensemble perception of emotions are comparable on average. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

JEnsembl: a version-aware Java API to Ensembl data systems

PubMed Central

Paterson, Trevor; Law, Andy

2012-01-01

Motivation: The Ensembl Project provides release-specific Perl APIs for efficient high-level programmatic access to data stored in various Ensembl database schema. Although Perl scripts are perfectly suited for processing large volumes of text-based data, Perl is not ideal for developing large-scale software applications nor embedding in graphical interfaces. The provision of a novel Java API would facilitate type-safe, modular, object-orientated development of new Bioinformatics tools with which to access, analyse and visualize Ensembl data. Results: The JEnsembl API implementation provides basic data retrieval and manipulation functionality from the Core, Compara and Variation databases for all species in Ensembl and EnsemblGenomes and is a platform for the development of a richer API to Ensembl datasources. The JEnsembl architecture uses a text-based configuration module to provide evolving, versioned mappings from database schema to code objects. A single installation of the JEnsembl API can therefore simultaneously and transparently connect to current and previous database instances (such as those in the public archive) thus facilitating better analysis repeatability and allowing ‘through time’ comparative analyses to be performed. Availability: Project development, released code libraries, Maven repository and documentation are hosted at SourceForge (http://jensembl.sourceforge.net). Contact: jensembl-develop@lists.sf.net, andy.law@roslin.ed.ac.uk, trevor.paterson@roslin.ed.ac.uk PMID:22945789

Recent advances in the multimodel hydrologic ensemble forecasting using the HydroProg system in the Nysa Klodzka river basin (southwestern Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, Tomasz; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Swierczynska-Chlasciak, Malgorzata

2017-04-01

The HydroProg system, the real-time multimodel hydrologic ensemble system elaborated at the University of Wroclaw (Poland) in frame of the research grant no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 financed by National Science Centre of Poland, has been experimentally launched in 2013 in the Nysa Klodzka river basin (southwestern Poland). Since that time the system has been working operationally to provide water level predictions in real time. At present, depending on a hydrologic gauge, up to eight hydrologic models are run. They are data- and physically-based solutions, with the majority of them being the data-based ones. The paper aims to report on the performance of the implementation of the HydroProg system for the basin in question. We focus on several high flows episodes and discuss the skills of the individual models in forecasting them. In addition, we present the performance of the multimodel ensemble solution. We also introduce a new prognosis which is determined in the following way: for a given lead time we select the most skillful prediction (from the set of all individual models running at a given gauge and their multimodel ensemble) using the performance statistics computed operationally in real time as a function of lead time.

Upgrades to the REA method for producing probabilistic climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

We present an augmented version of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented one includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of the performance-based weights. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed is removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean and variability for temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a useful option to account for wide ranges of quality of models. The REA method, and in particular the upgraded one, provides a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate change information at the regional scale. KEY WORDS: REA method, Climate change, CMIP3

Improving Robustness of Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions Through Probabilistic Pre- and Post-Processing in Sequential Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Ancell, B. C.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.

2018-03-01

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been increasingly recognized as a promising tool for probabilistic hydrologic predictions. However, little effort has been made to conduct the pre- and post-processing of assimilation experiments, posing a significant challenge in achieving the best performance of hydrologic predictions. This paper presents a unified data assimilation framework for improving the robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions. Statistical pre-processing of assimilation experiments is conducted through the factorial design and analysis to identify the best EnKF settings with maximized performance. After the data assimilation operation, statistical post-processing analysis is also performed through the factorial polynomial chaos expansion to efficiently address uncertainties in hydrologic predictions, as well as to explicitly reveal potential interactions among model parameters and their contributions to the predictive accuracy. In addition, the Gaussian anamorphosis is used to establish a seamless bridge between data assimilation and uncertainty quantification of hydrologic predictions. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments are carried out to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Results suggest that statistical pre- and post-processing of data assimilation experiments provide meaningful insights into the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems and enhance robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Towards an improved ensemble precipitation forecast: A probabilistic post-processing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2017-03-01

Recently, ensemble post-processing (EPP) has become a commonly used approach for reducing the uncertainty in forcing data and hence hydrologic simulation. The procedure was introduced to build ensemble precipitation forecasts based on the statistical relationship between observations and forecasts. More specifically, the approach relies on a transfer function that is developed based on a bivariate joint distribution between the observations and the simulations in the historical period. The transfer function is used to post-process the forecast. In this study, we propose a Bayesian EPP approach based on copula functions (COP-EPP) to improve the reliability of the precipitation ensemble forecast. Evaluation of the copula-based method is carried out by comparing the performance of the generated ensemble precipitation with the outputs from an existing procedure, i.e. mixed type meta-Gaussian distribution. Monthly precipitation from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS) and gridded observation from Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) have been employed to generate the post-processed ensemble precipitation. Deterministic and probabilistic verification frameworks are utilized in order to evaluate the outputs from the proposed technique. Distribution of seasonal precipitation for the generated ensemble from the copula-based technique is compared to the observation and raw forecasts for three sub-basins located in the Western United States. Results show that both techniques are successful in producing reliable and unbiased ensemble forecast, however, the COP-EPP demonstrates considerable improvement in the ensemble forecast in both deterministic and probabilistic verification, in particular in characterizing the extreme events in wet seasons.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework.

PubMed

Smith, Morgan E; Singh, Brajendra K; Irvine, Michael A; Stolk, Wilma A; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Michael, Edwin

2017-03-01

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

2016-04-01

Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Using Blood Biochemistry Features and Iterative Multitier Ensembles.

PubMed

Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F

2016-01-01

Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehrany, Mahyat Shafapour; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Jebur, Mustafa Neamah

2014-05-01

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur frequently in Terengganu, Malaysia. Recently, ensemble based techniques are getting extremely popular in flood modeling. In this paper, weights-of-evidence (WoE) model was utilized first, to assess the impact of classes of each conditioning factor on flooding through bivariate statistical analysis (BSA). Then, these factors were reclassified using the acquired weights and entered into the support vector machine (SVM) model to evaluate the correlation between flood occurrence and each conditioning factor. Through this integration, the weak point of WoE can be solved and the performance of the SVM will be enhanced. The spatial database included flood inventory, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), altitude, curvature, distance from the river, geology, rainfall, land use/cover (LULC), and soil type. Four kernel types of SVM (linear kernel (LN), polynomial kernel (PL), radial basis function kernel (RBF), and sigmoid kernel (SIG)) were used to investigate the performance of each kernel type. The efficiency of the new ensemble WoE and SVM method was tested using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. The validation results proved the strength and efficiency of the ensemble method over the individual methods. The best results were obtained from RBF kernel when compared with the other kernel types. Success rate and prediction rate for ensemble WoE and RBF-SVM method were 96.48% and 95.67% respectively. The proposed ensemble flood susceptibility mapping method could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies.

Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

Music Regulators in Two String Quartets: A Comparison of Communicative Behaviors between Low- and High-Stress Performance Conditions.

PubMed

Biasutti, Michele; Concina, Eleonora; Wasley, David; Williamon, Aaron

2016-01-01

In ensemble performances, group members use particular bodily behaviors as a sort of "language" to supplement the lack of verbal communication. This article focuses on music regulators, which are defined as signs to other group members for coordinating performance. The following two music regulators are considered: body gestures for articulating attacks (a set of movements externally directed that are used to signal entrances in performance) and eye contact. These regulators are recurring observable behaviors that play an important role in non-verbal communication among ensemble members. To understand how they are used by chamber musicians, video recordings of two string quartet performances (Quartet A performing Bartók and Quartet B performing Haydn) were analyzed under two conditions: a low stress performance (LSP), undertaken in a rehearsal setting, and a high stress performance (HSP) during a public recital. The results provide evidence for more emphasis in gestures for articulating attacks (i.e., the perceived strength of a performed attack-type body gesture) during HSP than LSP. Conversely, no significant differences were found for the frequency of eye contact between HSP and LSP. Moreover, there was variability in eye contact during HSP and LSP, showing that these behaviors are less standardized and may change according to idiosyncratic performance conditions. Educational implications are discussed for improving interpersonal communication skills during ensemble performance.

Music Regulators in Two String Quartets: A Comparison of Communicative Behaviors between Low- and High-Stress Performance Conditions

PubMed Central

Biasutti, Michele; Concina, Eleonora; Wasley, David; Williamon, Aaron

2016-01-01

In ensemble performances, group members use particular bodily behaviors as a sort of “language” to supplement the lack of verbal communication. This article focuses on music regulators, which are defined as signs to other group members for coordinating performance. The following two music regulators are considered: body gestures for articulating attacks (a set of movements externally directed that are used to signal entrances in performance) and eye contact. These regulators are recurring observable behaviors that play an important role in non-verbal communication among ensemble members. To understand how they are used by chamber musicians, video recordings of two string quartet performances (Quartet A performing Bartók and Quartet B performing Haydn) were analyzed under two conditions: a low stress performance (LSP), undertaken in a rehearsal setting, and a high stress performance (HSP) during a public recital. The results provide evidence for more emphasis in gestures for articulating attacks (i.e., the perceived strength of a performed attack-type body gesture) during HSP than LSP. Conversely, no significant differences were found for the frequency of eye contact between HSP and LSP. Moreover, there was variability in eye contact during HSP and LSP, showing that these behaviors are less standardized and may change according to idiosyncratic performance conditions. Educational implications are discussed for improving interpersonal communication skills during ensemble performance. PMID:27610089

Stochastic Approaches Within a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankov, I.

2017-12-01

It is well known that global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident ensemble forecasts. Typical approaches to alleviate this problem include the use of multiple dynamic cores, multiple physics suite configurations, or a combination of the two. While these approaches may produce desirable results, they have practical and theoretical deficiencies and are more difficult and costly to maintain. An active area of research that promotes a more unified and sustainable system is the use of stochastic physics. Stochastic approaches include Stochastic Parameter Perturbations (SPP), Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB), and Stochastic Perturbation of Physics Tendencies (SPPT). The focus of this study is to assess model performance within a convection-permitting ensemble at 3-km grid spacing across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using a variety of stochastic approaches. A single physics suite configuration based on the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model was utilized and ensemble members produced by employing stochastic methods. Parameter perturbations (using SPP) for select fields were employed in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes. Within MYNN, SPP was applied to sub-grid cloud fraction, mixing length, roughness length, mass fluxes and Prandtl number. In the RUC LSM, SPP was applied to hydraulic conductivity and tested perturbing soil moisture at initial time. First iterative testing was conducted to assess the initial performance of several configuration settings (e.g. variety of spatial and temporal de-correlation lengths). Upon selection of the most promising candidate configurations using SPP, a 10-day time period was run and more robust statistics were gathered. SKEB and SPPT were included in additional retrospective tests to assess the impact of using all three stochastic approaches to address model uncertainty. Results from the stochastic perturbation testing were compared to a baseline multi-physics control ensemble. For probabilistic forecast performance the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package was used.

Neural system for heartbeats recognition using genetically integrated ensemble of classifiers.

PubMed

Osowski, Stanislaw; Siwek, Krzysztof; Siroic, Robert

2011-03-01

This paper presents the application of genetic algorithm for the integration of neural classifiers combined in the ensemble for the accurate recognition of heartbeat types on the basis of ECG registration. The idea presented in this paper is that using many classifiers arranged in the form of ensemble leads to the increased accuracy of the recognition. In such ensemble the important problem is the integration of all classifiers into one effective classification system. This paper proposes the use of genetic algorithm. It was shown that application of the genetic algorithm is very efficient and allows to reduce significantly the total error of heartbeat recognition. This was confirmed by the numerical experiments performed on the MIT BIH Arrhythmia Database. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-sectional fluctuation scaling in the high-frequency illiquidity of Chinese stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Qing; Gao, Xing-Lu; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2018-03-01

Taylor's law of temporal and ensemble fluctuation scaling has been ubiquitously observed in diverse complex systems including financial markets. Stock illiquidity is an important nonadditive financial quantity, which is found to comply with Taylor's temporal fluctuation scaling law. In this paper, we perform the cross-sectional analysis of the 1 min high-frequency illiquidity time series of Chinese stocks and unveil the presence of Taylor's law of ensemble fluctuation scaling. The estimated daily Taylor scaling exponent fluctuates around 1.442. We find that Taylor's scaling exponents of stock illiquidity do not relate to the ensemble mean and ensemble variety of returns. Our analysis uncovers a new scaling law of financial markets and might stimulate further investigations for a better understanding of financial markets' dynamics.

Ensemble approach for differentiation of malignant melanoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastgoo, Mojdeh; Morel, Olivier; Marzani, Franck; Garcia, Rafael

2015-04-01

Melanoma is the deadliest type of skin cancer, yet it is the most treatable kind depending on its early diagnosis. The early prognosis of melanoma is a challenging task for both clinicians and dermatologists. Due to the importance of early diagnosis and in order to assist the dermatologists, we propose an automated framework based on ensemble learning methods and dermoscopy images to differentiate melanoma from dysplastic and benign lesions. The evaluation of our framework on the recent and public dermoscopy benchmark (PH2 dataset) indicates the potential of proposed method. Our evaluation, using only global features, revealed that ensembles such as random forest perform better than single learner. Using random forest ensemble and combination of color and texture features, our framework achieved the highest sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 92%.

Negative Correlation Learning for Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparison Study

PubMed Central

Faris, Hossam

2015-01-01

Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis. PMID:25879060

Fluctuation instability of the Dirac Sea in quark models of strong interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinovjev, G. M.; Molodtsov, S. V.

2016-03-01

A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory that feature an infinite correlation length are considered. An instability of the standard vacuum quark ensemble, a Dirac sea (in spacetimes of dimension higher than three), is highlighted. It is due to a strong ground-state degeneracy, which, in turn, stems from a special character of the energy distribution. In the case where the momentumcutoff parameter tends to infinity, this distribution becomes infinitely narrow and leads to large (unlimited) fluctuations. A comparison of the results for various vacuum ensembles, including a Dirac sea, a neutral ensemble, a color superconductor, and a Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) state, was performed. In the presence of color quark interaction, a BCS state is unambiguously chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.

Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Newman, A. J.; Mendoza, P. A.

2016-12-01

The System for Hydrometeorological Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, is a fully automated ensemble prediction system for short-term to seasonal applications. It incorporates uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 plausible temperature and precipitation time series through the Sacramento/Snow-17 model. The forcing ensemble explicitly accounts for measurement and interpolation uncertainties in the development of gridded meteorological forcing time series. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. To select the IHCs that are most consistent with the observations, we employ a particle filter (PF) that weights IHC ensemble members based on observations of streamflow and SWE. These particles are then used to initialize ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), generating a streamflow forecast ensemble. We test this method in two basins in the Pacific Northwest that are important for water resources management: 1) the Green River upstream of Howard Hanson Dam, and 2) the South Fork Flathead River upstream of Hungry Horse Dam. The first of these is characterized by mixed snow and rain, while the second is snow-dominated. The PF-based forecasts are compared to forecasts based on a single IHC (corresponding to median streamflow) paired with the full GEFS ensemble, and 2) the full IHC ensemble, without filtering, paired with the full GEFS ensemble. In addition to assessing improvements in the spread of IHCs, we perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts at 1- to 7-day lead times.

Ensemble of classifiers for confidence-rated classification of NDE signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Portia; Safdarnejad, Seyed; Udpa, Lalita; Udpa, Satish

2016-02-01

Ensemble of classifiers in general, aims to improve classification accuracy by combining results from multiple weak hypotheses into a single strong classifier through weighted majority voting. Improved versions of ensemble of classifiers generate self-rated confidence scores which estimate the reliability of each of its prediction and boost the classifier using these confidence-rated predictions. However, such a confidence metric is based only on the rate of correct classification. In existing works, although ensemble of classifiers has been widely used in computational intelligence, the effect of all factors of unreliability on the confidence of classification is highly overlooked. With relevance to NDE, classification results are affected by inherent ambiguity of classifica-tion, non-discriminative features, inadequate training samples and noise due to measurement. In this paper, we extend the existing ensemble classification by maximizing confidence of every classification decision in addition to minimizing the classification error. Initial results of the approach on data from eddy current inspection show improvement in classification performance of defect and non-defect indications.

Online Cross-Validation-Based Ensemble Learning

PubMed Central

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2017-01-01

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. PMID:28474419

Mitosis detection using generic features and an ensemble of cascade adaboosts.

PubMed

Tek, F Boray

2013-01-01

Mitosis count is one of the factors that pathologists use to assess the risk of metastasis and survival of the patients, which are affected by the breast cancer. We investigate an application of a set of generic features and an ensemble of cascade adaboosts to the automated mitosis detection. Calculation of the features rely minimally on object-level descriptions and thus require minimal segmentation. The proposed work was developed and tested on International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR) 2012 mitosis detection contest data. We plotted receiver operating characteristics curves of true positive versus false positive rates; calculated recall, precision, F-measure, and region overlap ratio measures. WE TESTED OUR FEATURES WITH TWO DIFFERENT CLASSIFIER CONFIGURATIONS: 1) An ensemble of single adaboosts, 2) an ensemble of cascade adaboosts. On the ICPR 2012 mitosis detection contest evaluation, the cascade ensemble scored 54, 62.7, and 58, whereas the non-cascade version scored 68, 28.1, and 39.7 for the recall, precision, and F-measure measures, respectively. Mostly used features in the adaboost classifier rules were a shape-based feature, which counted granularity and a color-based feature, which relied on Red, Green, and Blue channel statistics. The features, which express the granular structure and color variations, are found useful for mitosis detection. The ensemble of adaboosts performs better than the individual adaboost classifiers. Moreover, the ensemble of cascaded adaboosts was better than the ensemble of single adaboosts for mitosis detection.

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Yanqui; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo

1999-01-01

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Proposed hybrid-classifier ensemble algorithm to map snow cover area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijhawan, Rahul; Raman, Balasubramanian; Das, Josodhir

2018-01-01

Metaclassification ensemble approach is known to improve the prediction performance of snow-covered area. The methodology adopted in this case is based on neural network along with four state-of-art machine learning algorithms: support vector machine, artificial neural networks, spectral angle mapper, K-mean clustering, and a snow index: normalized difference snow index. An AdaBoost ensemble algorithm related to decision tree for snow-cover mapping is also proposed. According to available literature, these methods have been rarely used for snow-cover mapping. Employing the above techniques, a study was conducted for Raktavarn and Chaturangi Bamak glaciers, Uttarakhand, Himalaya using multispectral Landsat 7 ETM+ (enhanced thematic mapper) image. The study also compares the results with those obtained from statistical combination methods (majority rule and belief functions) and accuracies of individual classifiers. Accuracy assessment is performed by computing the quantity and allocation disagreement, analyzing statistic measures (accuracy, precision, specificity, AUC, and sensitivity) and receiver operating characteristic curves. A total of 225 combinations of parameters for individual classifiers were trained and tested on the dataset and results were compared with the proposed approach. It was observed that the proposed methodology produced the highest classification accuracy (95.21%), close to (94.01%) that was produced by the proposed AdaBoost ensemble algorithm. From the sets of observations, it was concluded that the ensemble of classifiers produced better results compared to individual classifiers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seiboth, Frank; Wittwer, Felix; Scholz, Maria

Wavefront errors of rotationally parabolic refractive X-ray lenses made of beryllium (Be CRLs) have been recovered for various lens sets and X-ray beam configurations. Due to manufacturing via an embossing process, aberrations of individual lenses within the investigated ensemble are very similar. By deriving a mean single-lens deformation for the ensemble, aberrations of any arbitrary lens stack can be predicted from the ensemble with σ¯ = 0.034λ. Using these findings the expected focusing performance of current Be CRLs are modeled for relevant X-ray energies and bandwidths and it is shown that a correction of aberrations can be realised without priormore » lens characterization but simply based on the derived lens deformation. As a result, the performance of aberration-corrected Be CRLs is discussed and the applicability of aberration-correction demonstrated over wide X-ray energy ranges.« less

Advanced life support equipment for nitrogen tetroxide environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, G. H., III

1978-01-01

Design constraints considered in an effort to improve the self-contained atmospheric protection ensemble (SCAPE) are discussed. Emphasis is placed on overcoming the hazards of personnel engaged in orbiter crash/rescue operations. Specific topics covered include: suit material permeability; sealing of all suit penetration; and maintaining a positive pressure within the suit.

Selected Influences on Solo and Small-Ensemble Festival Ratings: Replication and Extension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergee, Martin J.; McWhirter, Jamila L.

2005-01-01

Festival performance is no trivial endeavor. At one midwestern state festival alone, 10,938 events received a rating over a 3-year period (2001-2003). Such an extensive level of participation justifies sustained study. To learn more about variables that may underlie success at solo and small ensemble evaluative festivals, Bergee and Platt (2003)…

Ensuring Agile Power to the Edge Approach in Cyberspace

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

University, , 2. Musical Director, The Nagaokakyo Chamber Ensemble, Kyoto, Japan Former Professor, Roosevelt University Chicago College of...Performing Arts The Music Conservatory 3. Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science University of California...of musical ensemble without conductor. Second, we discuss to evaluate the feasibility on the Network Centric Warfare / Power to the Edge approach

Global Ensemble Upgrade - 20060530

Science.gov Websites

products available on both the NCEP ftp server (ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/) and the NWS ftp server processing routines so that they can continue to receive and use these data. The nature of these changes are of global ensemble data will be drastically changed to allow for better system performance on the

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Liu, Ping; Jambor, Urszula

2004-01-01

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

A study on the predictability of the transition day from the dry to the rainy season over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sang-Min; Nam, Ji-Eun; Choi, Hee-Wook; Ha, Jong-Chul; Lee, Yong Hee; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Cho, ChunHo

2016-08-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the prediction accuracies of THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data at six operational forecast centers using the root-mean square difference (RMSD) and Brier score (BS) from April to July 2012. And it was performed to test the precipitation predictability of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) on the onset of the summer rainy season, the day of withdrawal in spring drought over South Korea on 29 June 2012 with use of the ensemble mean precipitation, ensemble probability precipitation, 10-day lag ensemble forecasts (ensemble mean and probability precipitation), and effective drought index (EDI). The RMSD analysis of atmospheric variables (geopotential-height at 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa, sea-level pressure and specific humidity at 850 hPa) showed that the prediction accuracies of the EPS at the Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) were poor and those at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were good. Also, ECMWF and KMA showed better results than other EPSs for predicting precipitation in the BS distributions. It is also evaluated that the onset of the summer rainy season could be predicted using ensemble-mean precipitation from 4-day leading time at all forecast centers. In addition, the spatial distributions of predicted precipitation of the EPS at KMA and the Met Office of the United Kingdom (UKMO) were similar to those of observed precipitation; thus, the predictability showed good performance. The precipitation probability forecasts of EPS at CMA, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and UKMO (ECMWF and KMA) at 1-day lead time produced over-forecasting (under-forecasting) in the reliability diagram. And all the ones at 2˜4-day lead time showed under-forecasting. Also, the precipitation on onset day of the summer rainy season could be predicted from a 4-day lead time to initial time by using the 10-day lag ensemble mean and probability forecasts. Additionally, the predictability for withdrawal day of spring drought to be ended due to precipitation on onset day of summer rainy season was evaluated using Effective Drought Index (EDI) to be calculated by ensemble mean precipitation forecasts and spreads at five EPSs.

Information flow in an atmospheric model and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Young-noh

2011-12-01

Weather forecasting consists of two processes, model integration and analysis (data assimilation). During the model integration, the state estimate produced by the analysis evolves to the next cycle time according to the atmospheric model to become the background estimate. The analysis then produces a new state estimate by combining the background state estimate with new observations, and the cycle repeats. In an ensemble Kalman filter, the probability distribution of the state estimate is represented by an ensemble of sample states, and the covariance matrix is calculated using the ensemble of sample states. We perform numerical experiments on toy atmospheric models introduced by Lorenz in 2005 to study the information flow in an atmospheric model in conjunction with ensemble Kalman filtering for data assimilation. This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part of this dissertation is about the propagation of information and the use of localization in ensemble Kalman filtering. If we can perform data assimilation locally by considering the observations and the state variables only near each grid point, then we can reduce the number of ensemble members necessary to cover the probability distribution of the state estimate, reducing the computational cost for the data assimilation and the model integration. Several localized versions of the ensemble Kalman filter have been proposed. Although tests applying such schemes have proven them to be extremely promising, a full basic understanding of the rationale and limitations of localization is currently lacking. We address these issues and elucidate the role played by chaotic wave dynamics in the propagation of information and the resulting impact on forecasts. The second part of this dissertation is about ensemble regional data assimilation using joint states. Assuming that we have a global model and a regional model of higher accuracy defined in a subregion inside the global region, we propose a data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model simultaneously, considering forecast information from both models. We show that our new data assimilation scheme produces better results both in the subregion and the global region than the data assimilation scheme that produces the analyses for the global and the regional model separately.

Probabilistic Predictions of PM2.5 Using a Novel Ensemble Design for the NAQFC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R.; Lee, J. A.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.; Lee, P.

2017-12-01

Poor air quality (AQ) in the U.S. is estimated to cause about 60,000 premature deaths with costs of 100B-150B annually. To reduce such losses, the National AQ Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produces forecasts of ozone, particulate matter less than 2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5), and other pollutants so that advance notice and warning can be issued to help individuals and communities limit the exposure and reduce air pollution-caused health problems. The current NAQFC, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Community Multi-scale AQ (CMAQ) modeling system, provides only deterministic AQ forecasts and does not quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions, which could be large due to the chaotic nature of atmosphere and nonlinearity in atmospheric chemistry. This project aims to take NAQFC a step further in the direction of probabilistic AQ prediction by exploring and quantifying the potential value of ensemble predictions of PM2.5, and perturbing three key aspects of PM2.5 modeling: the meteorology, emissions, and CMAQ secondary organic aerosol formulation. This presentation focuses on the impact of meteorological variability, which is represented by three members of NOAA's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system that were down-selected by hierarchical cluster analysis. These three SREF members provide the physics configurations and initial/boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that generate required output variables for driving CMAQ that are missing in operational SREF output. We conducted WRF runs for Jan, Apr, Jul, and Oct 2016 to capture seasonal changes in meteorology. Estimated emissions of trace gases and aerosols via the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel (SMOKE) system were developed using the WRF output. WRF and SMOKE output drive a 3-member CMAQ mini-ensemble of once-daily, 48-h PM2.5 forecasts for the same four months. The CMAQ mini-ensemble is evaluated against both observations and the current operational deterministic NAQFC products, and analyzed to assess the impact of meteorological biases on PM2.5 variability. Quantification of the PM2.5 prediction uncertainty will prove a key factor to support cost-effective decision-making while protecting public health.

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been largely corrected on short-term predictions. For the longer term, the addition of the multi-model member has been beneficial to the quality of the predictions, although it is too early to determine whether the gain is related to the addition of a member or if multi-model member has plus-value itself.

Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2014-05-01

Forecast calibration or post-processing has become a standard tool in atmospheric and climatological science due to the presence of systematic initial condition and model errors. For ensemble forecasts the most competitive methods derive from the assumption of a fixed ensemble distribution. However, when independently applying such 'statistical' methods at different locations, lead times or for multiple variables the correlation structure for individual ensemble members is destroyed. Instead of reastablishing the correlation structure as in Schefzik et al. (2013) we instead propose a calibration method that avoids such problem by correcting each ensemble member individually. Moreover, we analyse the fundamental mechanisms by which the probabilistic ensemble skill can be enhanced. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, our member-by-member approach amounts to skill gain that extends for lead times far beyond the error doubling time and which is as good as the one of the most competitive statistical approach, non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (Gneiting et al. 2005). Besides the conservation of correlation structure, additional benefits arise including the fact that higher-order ensemble moments like kurtosis and skewness are inherited from the uncorrected forecasts. Our detailed analysis is performed in the context of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and different simple models but the results extent succesfully to the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2013, 2014) . References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Schefzik, R., T.L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting, 2013: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling. To appear in Statistical Science 28. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2013: Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, p. 347-352. [4] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2014: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects, under review.

Cluster ensemble based on Random Forests for genetic data.

PubMed

Alhusain, Luluah; Hafez, Alaaeldin M

2017-01-01

Clustering plays a crucial role in several application domains, such as bioinformatics. In bioinformatics, clustering has been extensively used as an approach for detecting interesting patterns in genetic data. One application is population structure analysis, which aims to group individuals into subpopulations based on shared genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms. Advances in DNA sequencing technology have facilitated the obtainment of genetic datasets with exceptional sizes. Genetic data usually contain hundreds of thousands of genetic markers genotyped for thousands of individuals, making an efficient means for handling such data desirable. Random Forests (RFs) has emerged as an efficient algorithm capable of handling high-dimensional data. RFs provides a proximity measure that can capture different levels of co-occurring relationships between variables. RFs has been widely considered a supervised learning method, although it can be converted into an unsupervised learning method. Therefore, RF-derived proximity measure combined with a clustering technique may be well suited for determining the underlying structure of unlabeled data. This paper proposes, RFcluE, a cluster ensemble approach for determining the underlying structure of genetic data based on RFs. The approach comprises a cluster ensemble framework to combine multiple runs of RF clustering. Experiments were conducted on high-dimensional, real genetic dataset to evaluate the proposed approach. The experiments included an examination of the impact of parameter changes, comparing RFcluE performance against other clustering methods, and an assessment of the relationship between the diversity and quality of the ensemble and its effect on RFcluE performance. This paper proposes, RFcluE, a cluster ensemble approach based on RF clustering to address the problem of population structure analysis and demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The paper also illustrates that applying a cluster ensemble approach, combining multiple RF clusterings, produces more robust and higher-quality results as a consequence of feeding the ensemble with diverse views of high-dimensional genetic data obtained through bagging and random subspace, the two key features of the RF algorithm.

Iterative-method performance evaluation for multiple vectors associated with a large-scale sparse matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imamura, Seigo; Ono, Kenji; Yokokawa, Mitsuo

2016-07-01

Ensemble computing, which is an instance of capacity computing, is an effective computing scenario for exascale parallel supercomputers. In ensemble computing, there are multiple linear systems associated with a common coefficient matrix. We improve the performance of iterative solvers for multiple vectors by solving them at the same time, that is, by solving for the product of the matrices. We implemented several iterative methods and compared their performance. The maximum performance on Sparc VIIIfx was 7.6 times higher than that of a naïve implementation. Finally, to deal with the different convergence processes of linear systems, we introduced a control method to eliminate the calculation of already converged vectors.

Quantifying rapid changes in cardiovascular state with a moving ensemble average.

PubMed

Cieslak, Matthew; Ryan, William S; Babenko, Viktoriya; Erro, Hannah; Rathbun, Zoe M; Meiring, Wendy; Kelsey, Robert M; Blascovich, Jim; Grafton, Scott T

2018-04-01

MEAP, the moving ensemble analysis pipeline, is a new open-source tool designed to perform multisubject preprocessing and analysis of cardiovascular data, including electrocardiogram (ECG), impedance cardiogram (ICG), and continuous blood pressure (BP). In addition to traditional ensemble averaging, MEAP implements a moving ensemble averaging method that allows for the continuous estimation of indices related to cardiovascular state, including cardiac output, preejection period, heart rate variability, and total peripheral resistance, among others. Here, we define the moving ensemble technique mathematically, highlighting its differences from fixed-window ensemble averaging. We describe MEAP's interface and features for signal processing, artifact correction, and cardiovascular-based fMRI analysis. We demonstrate the accuracy of MEAP's novel B point detection algorithm on a large collection of hand-labeled ICG waveforms. As a proof of concept, two subjects completed a series of four physical and cognitive tasks (cold pressor, Valsalva maneuver, video game, random dot kinetogram) on 3 separate days while ECG, ICG, and BP were recorded. Critically, the moving ensemble method reliably captures the rapid cyclical cardiovascular changes related to the baroreflex during the Valsalva maneuver and the classic cold pressor response. Cardiovascular measures were seen to vary considerably within repetitions of the same cognitive task for each individual, suggesting that a carefully designed paradigm could be used to capture fast-acting event-related changes in cardiovascular state. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-03-01

Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

Impact of ensemble learning in the assessment of skeletal maturity.

PubMed

Cunha, Pedro; Moura, Daniel C; Guevara López, Miguel Angel; Guerra, Conceição; Pinto, Daniela; Ramos, Isabel

2014-09-01

The assessment of the bone age, or skeletal maturity, is an important task in pediatrics that measures the degree of maturation of children's bones. Nowadays, there is no standard clinical procedure for assessing bone age and the most widely used approaches are the Greulich and Pyle and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Computer methods have been proposed to automatize the process; however, there is a lack of exploration about how to combine the features of the different parts of the hand, and how to take advantage of ensemble techniques for this purpose. This paper presents a study where the use of ensemble techniques for improving bone age assessment is evaluated. A new computer method was developed that extracts descriptors for each joint of each finger, which are then combined using different ensemble schemes for obtaining a final bone age value. Three popular ensemble schemes are explored in this study: bagging, stacking and voting. Best results were achieved by bagging with a rule-based regression (M5P), scoring a mean absolute error of 10.16 months. Results show that ensemble techniques improve the prediction performance of most of the evaluated regression algorithms, always achieving best or comparable to best results. Therefore, the success of the ensemble methods allow us to conclude that their use may improve computer-based bone age assessment, offering a scalable option for utilizing multiple regions of interest and combining their output.

iACP-GAEnsC: Evolutionary genetic algorithm based ensemble classification of anticancer peptides by utilizing hybrid feature space.

PubMed

Akbar, Shahid; Hayat, Maqsood; Iqbal, Muhammad; Jan, Mian Ahmad

2017-06-01

Cancer is a fatal disease, responsible for one-quarter of all deaths in developed countries. Traditional anticancer therapies such as, chemotherapy and radiation, are highly expensive, susceptible to errors and ineffective techniques. These conventional techniques induce severe side-effects on human cells. Due to perilous impact of cancer, the development of an accurate and highly efficient intelligent computational model is desirable for identification of anticancer peptides. In this paper, evolutionary intelligent genetic algorithm-based ensemble model, 'iACP-GAEnsC', is proposed for the identification of anticancer peptides. In this model, the protein sequences are formulated, using three different discrete feature representation methods, i.e., amphiphilic Pseudo amino acid composition, g-Gap dipeptide composition, and Reduce amino acid alphabet composition. The performance of the extracted feature spaces are investigated separately and then merged to exhibit the significance of hybridization. In addition, the predicted results of individual classifiers are combined together, using optimized genetic algorithm and simple majority technique in order to enhance the true classification rate. It is observed that genetic algorithm-based ensemble classification outperforms than individual classifiers as well as simple majority voting base ensemble. The performance of genetic algorithm-based ensemble classification is highly reported on hybrid feature space, with an accuracy of 96.45%. In comparison to the existing techniques, 'iACP-GAEnsC' model has achieved remarkable improvement in terms of various performance metrics. Based on the simulation results, it is observed that 'iACP-GAEnsC' model might be a leading tool in the field of drug design and proteomics for researchers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on precipitation distribution and water availability in the Nile using CMIP5 GCM ensemble.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. T.; Gebremichael, M.

2017-12-01

ABSTRACT In a basin like the Nile where millions of people depend on rainfed agriculture and surface water resources for their livelihoods, changes in precipitation will have tremendous social and economic consequences. General circulation models (GCMs) have been associated with high uncertainty in their projection of future precipitation for the Nile basin. Some studies tried to compare performance of different GCMs by doing a Multi-Model comparison for the region. Many indicated that there is no single model that gives the "best estimate" of precipitation for a very complex and large basin like the Nile. In this study, we used a combination of satellite and long term rain gauge precipitation measurements (TRMM and CenTrends) to evaluate the performance of 10 GCMs from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) at different spatial and seasonal scales and produce a weighted ensemble projection. Our results confirm that there is no single model that gives best estimate over the region, hence the approach of creating an ensemble depending on how the model performed in specific areas and seasons resulted in an improved estimate of precipitation compared with observed values. Following the same approach, we created an ensemble of future precipitation projections for four different time periods (2000-2024, 2025-2049 and 2050-2100). The analysis showed that all the major sub-basins of the Nile will get will get more precipitation with time, even though the distribution with in the sub basin might be different. Overall the analysis showed a 15 % increase (125 mm/year) by the end of the century averaged over the area up to the Aswan dam. KEY WORDS: Climate Change, CMIP5, Nile, East Africa, CenTrends, Precipitation, Weighted Ensembles

Intelligent ensemble T-S fuzzy neural networks with RCDPSO_DM optimization for effective handling of complex clinical pathway variances.

PubMed

Du, Gang; Jiang, Zhibin; Diao, Xiaodi; Yao, Yang

2013-07-01

Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy neural networks (FNNs) can be used to handle complex, fuzzy, uncertain clinical pathway (CP) variances. However, there are many drawbacks, such as slow training rate, propensity to become trapped in a local minimum and poor ability to perform a global search. In order to improve overall performance of variance handling by T-S FNNs, a new CP variance handling method is proposed in this study. It is based on random cooperative decomposing particle swarm optimization with double mutation mechanism (RCDPSO_DM) for T-S FNNs. Moreover, the proposed integrated learning algorithm, combining the RCDPSO_DM algorithm with a Kalman filtering algorithm, is applied to optimize antecedent and consequent parameters of constructed T-S FNNs. Then, a multi-swarm cooperative immigrating particle swarm algorithm ensemble method is used for intelligent ensemble T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization to further improve stability and accuracy of CP variance handling. Finally, two case studies on liver and kidney poisoning variances in osteosarcoma preoperative chemotherapy are used to validate the proposed method. The result demonstrates that intelligent ensemble T-S FNNs based on the RCDPSO_DM achieves superior performances, in terms of stability, efficiency, precision and generalizability, over PSO ensemble of all T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization, single T-S FNNs with RCDPSO_DM optimization, standard T-S FNNs, standard Mamdani FNNs and T-S FNNs based on other algorithms (cooperative particle swarm optimization and particle swarm optimization) for CP variance handling. Therefore, it makes CP variance handling more effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Online breakage detection of multitooth tools using classifier ensembles for imbalanced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bustillo, Andrés; Rodríguez, Juan J.

2014-12-01

Cutting tool breakage detection is an important task, due to its economic impact on mass production lines in the automobile industry. This task presents a central limitation: real data-sets are extremely imbalanced because breakage occurs in very few cases compared with normal operation of the cutting process. In this paper, we present an analysis of different data-mining techniques applied to the detection of insert breakage in multitooth tools. The analysis applies only one experimental variable: the electrical power consumption of the tool drive. This restriction profiles real industrial conditions more accurately than other physical variables, such as acoustic or vibration signals, which are not so easily measured. Many efforts have been made to design a method that is able to identify breakages with a high degree of reliability within a short period of time. The solution is based on classifier ensembles for imbalanced data-sets. Classifier ensembles are combinations of classifiers, which in many situations are more accurate than individual classifiers. Six different base classifiers are tested: Decision Trees, Rules, Naïve Bayes, Nearest Neighbour, Multilayer Perceptrons and Logistic Regression. Three different balancing strategies are tested with each of the classifier ensembles and compared to their performance with the original data-set: Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), undersampling and a combination of SMOTE and undersampling. To identify the most suitable data-mining solution, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) graph and Recall-precision graph are generated and discussed. The performance of logistic regression ensembles on the balanced data-set using the combination of SMOTE and undersampling turned out to be the most suitable technique. Finally a comparison using industrial performance measures is presented, which concludes that this technique is also more suited to this industrial problem than the other techniques presented in the bibliography.

Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

Inhibition of propofol on single neuron and neuronal ensemble activity in prefrontal cortex of rats during working memory task.

PubMed

Xu, Xinyu; Tian, Yu; Wang, Guolin; Tian, Xin

2014-08-15

Working memory (WM) refers to the temporary storage and manipulation of information necessary for performance of complex cognitive tasks. There is a growing interest in whether and how propofol anesthesia inhibits WM function. The aim of this study is to investigate the possible inhibition mechanism of propofol anesthesia from the view of single neuron and neuronal ensemble activities. Adult SD rats were randomly divided into two groups: propofol group (0.9 mg kg(-1)min(-1), 2h via a tail vein catheter) and control group. All the rats were tested for working memory performances in a Y-maze-rewarded alternation task (a task of delayed non-matched-to-sample) at 24, 48, 72 h after propofol anesthesia, and the behavior results of WM tasks were recorded at the same time. Spatio-temporal trains of action potentials were obtained from the original signals. Single neuron activity was characterized by peri-event time histograms analysis and neuron ensemble activities were characterized by Granger causality to describe the interactions within the neuron ensemble. The results show that: comparing with the control group, the percentage of neurons excited and related to WM was significantly decreased (p<0.01 in 24h, p<0.05 in 48 h); the interactions within neuron ensemble were significantly weakened (p<0.01 in 24h, p<0.05 in 48 h), whereas no significant difference in 72 h (p>0.05), which were consistent with the behavior results. These findings could lead to improved understanding of the mechanism of anesthesia inhibition on WM functions from the view of single neuron activity and neuron ensemble interactions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Draxl, Caroline; Hopson, Thomas

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been widely used for wind resource assessment. Model runs with higher spatial resolution are generally more accurate, yet extremely computational expensive. An alternative approach is to use data generated by a low resolution NWP model, in conjunction with statistical methods. In order to analyze the accuracy and computational efficiency of different types of NWP-based wind resource assessment methods, this paper performs a comparison of three deterministic and probabilistic NWP-based wind resource assessment methodologies: (i) a coarse resolution (0.5 degrees x 0.67 degrees) global reanalysis data set, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applicationsmore » (MERRA); (ii) an analog ensemble methodology based on the MERRA, which provides both deterministic and probabilistic predictions; and (iii) a fine resolution (2-km) NWP data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that: (i) as expected, the analog ensemble and WIND Toolkit perform significantly better than MERRA confirming their ability to downscale coarse estimates; (ii) the analog ensemble provides the best estimate of the multi-year wind distribution at seven of the nine sites, while the WIND Toolkit is the best at one site; (iii) the WIND Toolkit is more accurate in estimating the distribution of hourly wind speed differences, which characterizes the wind variability, at five of the available sites, with the analog ensemble being best at the remaining four locations; and (iv) the analog ensemble computational cost is negligible, whereas the WIND Toolkit requires large computational resources. Future efforts could focus on the combination of the analog ensemble with intermediate resolution (e.g., 10-15 km) NWP estimates, to considerably reduce the computational burden, while providing accurate deterministic estimates and reliable probabilistic assessments.« less

A global water resources ensemble of hydrological models: the eartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellekens, Jaap; Dutra, Emanuel; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; van Dijk, Albert; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Minvielle, Marie; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Decharme, Bertrand; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Flörke, Martina; Peßenteiner, Stefanie; van Beek, Rens; Polcher, Jan; Beck, Hylke; Orth, René; Calton, Ben; Burke, Sophia; Dorigo, Wouter; Weedon, Graham P.

2017-07-01

The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979-2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr-1 (334 kg m-2 yr-1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m-2 yr-1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

Fluctuation instability of the Dirac Sea in quark models of strong interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinovjev, G. M., E-mail: Gennady.Zinovjev@cern.ch; Molodtsov, S. V.

A number of exactly integrable (quark) models of quantum field theory that feature an infinite correlation length are considered. An instability of the standard vacuum quark ensemble, a Dirac sea (in spacetimes of dimension higher than three), is highlighted. It is due to a strong ground-state degeneracy, which, in turn, stems from a special character of the energy distribution. In the case where the momentumcutoff parameter tends to infinity, this distribution becomes infinitely narrow and leads to large (unlimited) fluctuations. A comparison of the results for various vacuum ensembles, including a Dirac sea, a neutral ensemble, a color superconductor, andmore » a Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer (BCS) state, was performed. In the presence of color quark interaction, a BCS state is unambiguously chosen as the ground state of the quark ensemble.« less

Stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbreth, C. N.; Alhassid, Y.

2015-03-01

Quantum Monte Carlo methods are powerful techniques for studying strongly interacting Fermi systems. However, implementing these methods on computers with finite-precision arithmetic requires careful attention to numerical stability. In the auxiliary-field Monte Carlo (AFMC) method, low-temperature or large-model-space calculations require numerically stabilized matrix multiplication. When adapting methods used in the grand-canonical ensemble to the canonical ensemble of fixed particle number, the numerical stabilization increases the number of required floating-point operations for computing observables by a factor of the size of the single-particle model space, and thus can greatly limit the systems that can be studied. We describe an improved method for stabilizing canonical-ensemble calculations in AFMC that exhibits better scaling, and present numerical tests that demonstrate the accuracy and improved performance of the method.

Ensemble Data Assimilation for Streamflow Forecasting: Experiments with Ensemble Kalman Filter and Particle Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirpa, F. A.; Gebremichael, M.; Hopson, T. M.; Wojick, R.

2011-12-01

We present results of data assimilation of ground discharge observation and remotely sensed soil moisture observations into Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SACSMA) model in a small watershed (1593 km2) in Minnesota, the Unites States. Specifically, we perform assimilation experiments with Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) in order to improve streamflow forecast accuracy at six hourly time step. The EnKF updates the soil moisture states in the SACSMA from the relative errors of the model and observations, while the PF adjust the weights of the state ensemble members based on the likelihood of the forecast. Results of the improvements of each filter over the reference model (without data assimilation) will be presented. Finally, the EnKF and PF are coupled together to further improve the streamflow forecast accuracy.

A novel method to guide classification of para swimmers with limb deficiency.

PubMed

Hogarth, Luke; Payton, Carl; Van de Vliet, Peter; Connick, Mark; Burkett, Brendan

2018-05-30

The International Paralympic Committee has directed International Federations that govern Para sports to develop evidence-based classification systems. This study defined the impact of limb deficiency impairment on 100 m freestyle performance to guide an evidence-based classification system in Para Swimming, which will be implemented following the 2020 Tokyo Paralympic games. Impairment data and competitive race performances of 90 international swimmers with limb deficiency were collected. Ensemble partial least squares regression established the relationship between relative limb length measures and competitive 100 m freestyle performance. The model explained 80% of the variance in 100 m freestyle performance, and found hand length and forearm length to be the most important predictors of performance. Based on the results of this model, Para swimmers were clustered into four-, five-, six- and seven-class structures using nonparametric kernel density estimations. The validity of these classification structures, and effectiveness against the current classification system, were examined by establishing within-class variations in 100 m freestyle performance and differences between adjacent classes. The derived classification structures were found to be more effective than current classification based on these criteria. This study provides a novel method that can be used to improve the objectivity and transparency of decision-making in Para sport classification. Expert consensus from experienced coaches, Para swimmers, classifiers and sport science and medicine personnel will benefit the translation of these findings into a revised classification system that is accepted by the Para swimming community. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Kalman Filter versus Ensemble Smoother for Data Assimilation in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Cao, Z.; Zhou, H.

2017-12-01

Groundwater modeling calls for an effective and robust integrating method to fill the gap between the model and data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a real-time data assimilation method, has been increasingly applied in multiple disciplines such as petroleum engineering and hydrogeology. In this approach, the groundwater models are sequentially updated using measured data such as hydraulic head and concentration data. As an alternative to the EnKF, the Ensemble Smoother (ES) was proposed with updating models using all the data together, and therefore needs a much less computational cost. To further improve the performance of the ES, an iterative ES was proposed for continuously updating the models by assimilating measurements together. In this work, we compare the performance of the EnKF, the ES and the iterative ES using a synthetic example in groundwater modeling. The hydraulic head data modeled on the basis of the reference conductivity field are utilized to inversely estimate conductivities at un-sampled locations. Results are evaluated in terms of the characterization of conductivity and groundwater flow and solute transport predictions. It is concluded that: (1) the iterative ES could achieve a comparable result with the EnKF, but needs a less computational cost; (2) the iterative ES has the better performance than the ES through continuously updating. These findings suggest that the iterative ES should be paid much more attention for data assimilation in groundwater modeling.

Effects of Hoods and Flame-Retardant Fabrics on WBGT Clothing Adjustment Factors.

PubMed

Ashley, Candi D; Bernard, Thomas E

2008-01-01

Personal protective clothing (PPC) may include hoods and flame-retardant (FR) fabrics that may affect heat transfer and, thus, the critical wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT crit) to maintain thermal equilibrium. The purpose of this study was to compare the differences in WBGT crit for hooded vs. nonhooded versions of particle barrier and vapor barrier coveralls as well as for coveralls made of two flame-retardant fabrics (INDURA cotton and Nomex). Acclimated men (n = 11) and women (n = 4) walked on a treadmill in a climatic chamber at 180 W/m2 wearing four different ensembles: limited-use, particle barrier coveralls with and without a hood (Tyvek 1427), and limited-use vapor barrier coveralls with and without a hood (Tychem QC, polyethylene-coated Tyvek). Twelve of the participants wore one of two flame-retardant coveralls. All participants wore standard cotton clothing. Progressive exposure testing at 50% relative humidity (rh) was designed so that each subject established a physiological steady-state followed by a clear loss of thermal equilibrium. WBGT crit was the WBGT 5 min prior to a loss of thermal equilibrium. Hooded ensembles had a lower WBGT crit than the nonhooded ensembles. The difference suggested a clothing adjustment of 1 degrees C for hoods. There were no significant differences among the FR ensembles and cotton work cloths, and the proposed clothing adjustment for FR coveralls clothing is 0 degrees C.

Class-specific Error Bounds for Ensemble Classifiers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prenger, R; Lemmond, T; Varshney, K

2009-10-06

The generalization error, or probability of misclassification, of ensemble classifiers has been shown to be bounded above by a function of the mean correlation between the constituent (i.e., base) classifiers and their average strength. This bound suggests that increasing the strength and/or decreasing the correlation of an ensemble's base classifiers may yield improved performance under the assumption of equal error costs. However, this and other existing bounds do not directly address application spaces in which error costs are inherently unequal. For applications involving binary classification, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, performance curves that explicitly trade off false alarms and missedmore » detections, are often utilized to support decision making. To address performance optimization in this context, we have developed a lower bound for the entire ROC curve that can be expressed in terms of the class-specific strength and correlation of the base classifiers. We present empirical analyses demonstrating the efficacy of these bounds in predicting relative classifier performance. In addition, we specify performance regions of the ROC curve that are naturally delineated by the class-specific strengths of the base classifiers and show that each of these regions can be associated with a unique set of guidelines for performance optimization of binary classifiers within unequal error cost regimes.« less

Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; De Felice, M.; Catalano, F.; Lee, J. Y.; Wang, B.; Lee, D. Y.; Yoo, J. H.; Weisheimer, A.

2017-12-01

By initiating a novel cooperation between the European and the Asian-Pacific climate-prediction communities, this work demonstrates the potential of gathering together their Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) to obtain useful climate predictions at seasonal time-scale.MMEs are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles and increasing benefit is expected with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs). In this work we combine the two MME SPSs independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities by establishing an unprecedented partnerships. To this aim, all the possible MME combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models.To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand MME is used to predict energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. Above results are discussed in a Clim Dyn paper (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3372-4).

A Machine Learning Ensemble Classifier for Early Prediction of Diabetic Retinopathy.

PubMed

S K, Somasundaram; P, Alli

2017-11-09

The main complication of diabetes is Diabetic retinopathy (DR), retinal vascular disease and it leads to the blindness. Regular screening for early DR disease detection is considered as an intensive labor and resource oriented task. Therefore, automatic detection of DR diseases is performed only by using the computational technique is the great solution. An automatic method is more reliable to determine the presence of an abnormality in Fundus images (FI) but, the classification process is poorly performed. Recently, few research works have been designed for analyzing texture discrimination capacity in FI to distinguish the healthy images. However, the feature extraction (FE) process was not performed well, due to the high dimensionality. Therefore, to identify retinal features for DR disease diagnosis and early detection using Machine Learning and Ensemble Classification method, called, Machine Learning Bagging Ensemble Classifier (ML-BEC) is designed. The ML-BEC method comprises of two stages. The first stage in ML-BEC method comprises extraction of the candidate objects from Retinal Images (RI). The candidate objects or the features for DR disease diagnosis include blood vessels, optic nerve, neural tissue, neuroretinal rim, optic disc size, thickness and variance. These features are initially extracted by applying Machine Learning technique called, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). Besides, t-SNE generates a probability distribution across high-dimensional images where the images are separated into similar and dissimilar pairs. Then, t-SNE describes a similar probability distribution across the points in the low-dimensional map. This lessens the Kullback-Leibler divergence among two distributions regarding the locations of the points on the map. The second stage comprises of application of ensemble classifiers to the extracted features for providing accurate analysis of digital FI using machine learning. In this stage, an automatic detection of DR screening system using Bagging Ensemble Classifier (BEC) is investigated. With the help of voting the process in ML-BEC, bagging minimizes the error due to variance of the base classifier. With the publicly available retinal image databases, our classifier is trained with 25% of RI. Results show that the ensemble classifier can achieve better classification accuracy (CA) than single classification models. Empirical experiments suggest that the machine learning-based ensemble classifier is efficient for further reducing DR classification time (CT).

Jazz Style and Articulation: How to Get Your Band or Choir to Swing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolson, Jerry

2012-01-01

The interpretation of jazz style is crucial to the element of swing in any jazz ensemble performance. Today, many charts for both large and small instrumental and vocal jazz ensembles are well marked with articulations and expression markings. However, in some cases, there is nothing to guide the musician. This article addresses some common jazz…

Coupled lagged ensemble weather- and river runoff prediction in complex Alpine terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, Gerhard; Kunstmann, Harald; Werhahn, Johannes

2013-04-01

It is still a challenge to predict fast reacting streamflow precipitation response in Alpine terrain. Civil protection measures require flood prediction in 24 - 48 lead time. This holds particularly true for the Ammer River region which was affected by century floods in 1999, 2003 and 2005. Since 2005 a coupled NWP/Hydrology model system is operated in simulating and predicting the Ammer River discharges. The Ammer River catchment is located in the Bavarian Ammergau Alps and alpine forelands, Germany. With elevations reaching 2185 m and annual mean precipitation between 1100 and 2000 mm it represents very demanding test ground for a river runoff prediction system. The one way coupled system utilizes a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. The major components of the system are the MM5 NWP model run at 3.5 km resolution and initialized twice a day, the hydrology model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m resolution and Perl object environment (POE) implementing the networking and the system operation. Results obtained in the years 2005-2012 reveal that river runoff simulations depict already high correlation (NSC in range 0.53 and 0.95) with observed runoff in retrospective runs with monitored meteorology data, but suffer from errors in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the employed numerical weather prediction model. We evaluate the NWP model accuracy, especially the precipitation intensity, frequency and location and put a focus on the performance gain of bias adjustment procedures. We show how this enhanced QFP data help to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge prediction. In addition to the HND (Hochwassernachrichtendienst, Bayern) observations TERENO Longterm Observatory hydrometeorological observation data are available since 2011. They are used to evaluate the NWP performance and setup of a bias correction procedure based on ensemble postprocessing applying Bayesian (BMA) model averaging. We first present briefly the technical setup of the operational coupled lagged NWP/Hydrology model system and then focus on the evaluation of the NWP model, the BMA enhanced QPF and its application within the Ammer simulation system in the period 2011 - 2012

Heralded high-efficiency quantum repeater with atomic ensembles assisted by faithful single-photon transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tao; Deng, Fu-Guo

2015-10-01

Quantum repeater is one of the important building blocks for long distance quantum communication network. The previous quantum repeaters based on atomic ensembles and linear optical elements can only be performed with a maximal success probability of 1/2 during the entanglement creation and entanglement swapping procedures. Meanwhile, the polarization noise during the entanglement distribution process is harmful to the entangled channel created. Here we introduce a general interface between a polarized photon and an atomic ensemble trapped in a single-sided optical cavity, and with which we propose a high-efficiency quantum repeater protocol in which the robust entanglement distribution is accomplished by the stable spatial-temporal entanglement and it can in principle create the deterministic entanglement between neighboring atomic ensembles in a heralded way as a result of cavity quantum electrodynamics. Meanwhile, the simplified parity-check gate makes the entanglement swapping be completed with unity efficiency, other than 1/2 with linear optics. We detail the performance of our protocol with current experimental parameters and show its robustness to the imperfections, i.e., detuning and coupling variation, involved in the reflection process. These good features make it a useful building block in long distance quantum communication.

A Framework to Analyze the Performance of Load Balancing Schemes for Ensembles of Stochastic Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Sandu, Adrian; Watson, Layne T.

2015-08-01

Ensembles of simulations are employed to estimate the statistics of possible future states of a system, and are widely used in important applications such as climate change and biological modeling. Ensembles of runs can naturally be executed in parallel. However, when the CPU times of individual simulations vary considerably, a simple strategy of assigning an equal number of tasks per processor can lead to serious work imbalances and low parallel efficiency. This paper presents a new probabilistic framework to analyze the performance of dynamic load balancing algorithms for ensembles of simulations where many tasks are mapped onto each processor, andmore » where the individual compute times vary considerably among tasks. Four load balancing strategies are discussed: most-dividing, all-redistribution, random-polling, and neighbor-redistribution. Simulation results with a stochastic budding yeast cell cycle model are consistent with the theoretical analysis. It is especially significant that there is a provable global decrease in load imbalance for the local rebalancing algorithms due to scalability concerns for the global rebalancing algorithms. The overall simulation time is reduced by up to 25 %, and the total processor idle time by 85 %.« less

Heralded high-efficiency quantum repeater with atomic ensembles assisted by faithful single-photon transmission.

PubMed

Li, Tao; Deng, Fu-Guo

2015-10-27

Quantum repeater is one of the important building blocks for long distance quantum communication network. The previous quantum repeaters based on atomic ensembles and linear optical elements can only be performed with a maximal success probability of 1/2 during the entanglement creation and entanglement swapping procedures. Meanwhile, the polarization noise during the entanglement distribution process is harmful to the entangled channel created. Here we introduce a general interface between a polarized photon and an atomic ensemble trapped in a single-sided optical cavity, and with which we propose a high-efficiency quantum repeater protocol in which the robust entanglement distribution is accomplished by the stable spatial-temporal entanglement and it can in principle create the deterministic entanglement between neighboring atomic ensembles in a heralded way as a result of cavity quantum electrodynamics. Meanwhile, the simplified parity-check gate makes the entanglement swapping be completed with unity efficiency, other than 1/2 with linear optics. We detail the performance of our protocol with current experimental parameters and show its robustness to the imperfections, i.e., detuning and coupling variation, involved in the reflection process. These good features make it a useful building block in long distance quantum communication.

Heralded high-efficiency quantum repeater with atomic ensembles assisted by faithful single-photon transmission

PubMed Central

Li, Tao; Deng, Fu-Guo

2015-01-01

Quantum repeater is one of the important building blocks for long distance quantum communication network. The previous quantum repeaters based on atomic ensembles and linear optical elements can only be performed with a maximal success probability of 1/2 during the entanglement creation and entanglement swapping procedures. Meanwhile, the polarization noise during the entanglement distribution process is harmful to the entangled channel created. Here we introduce a general interface between a polarized photon and an atomic ensemble trapped in a single-sided optical cavity, and with which we propose a high-efficiency quantum repeater protocol in which the robust entanglement distribution is accomplished by the stable spatial-temporal entanglement and it can in principle create the deterministic entanglement between neighboring atomic ensembles in a heralded way as a result of cavity quantum electrodynamics. Meanwhile, the simplified parity-check gate makes the entanglement swapping be completed with unity efficiency, other than 1/2 with linear optics. We detail the performance of our protocol with current experimental parameters and show its robustness to the imperfections, i.e., detuning and coupling variation, involved in the reflection process. These good features make it a useful building block in long distance quantum communication. PMID:26502993

Detection of chewing from piezoelectric film sensor signals using ensemble classifiers.

PubMed

Farooq, Muhammad; Sazonov, Edward

2016-08-01

Selection and use of pattern recognition algorithms is application dependent. In this work, we explored the use of several ensembles of weak classifiers to classify signals captured from a wearable sensor system to detect food intake based on chewing. Three sensor signals (Piezoelectric sensor, accelerometer, and hand to mouth gesture) were collected from 12 subjects in free-living conditions for 24 hrs. Sensor signals were divided into 10 seconds epochs and for each epoch combination of time and frequency domain features were computed. In this work, we present a comparison of three different ensemble techniques: boosting (AdaBoost), bootstrap aggregation (bagging) and stacking, each trained with 3 different weak classifiers (Decision Trees, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Logistic Regression). Type of feature normalization used can also impact the classification results. For each ensemble method, three feature normalization techniques: (no-normalization, z-score normalization, and minmax normalization) were tested. A 12 fold cross-validation scheme was used to evaluate the performance of each model where the performance was evaluated in terms of precision, recall, and accuracy. Best results achieved here show an improvement of about 4% over our previous algorithms.

Supramolecular interactions of oxidative stress biomarker glutathione with fluorone black.

PubMed

Hepel, Maria; Stobiecka, Magdalena

2018-03-05

Oxidative stress biomarkers, including glutathione (GSH) and related compounds, are involved in a variety of interactions enabling redox potential maintenance in living cells and protection against radicals. Since the oxidative stress is promoting and, in many cases, inducing serious illnesses, monitoring of GSH levels can aid in diagnostics and disease prevention. Herein, we report on the discovery of the formation of a supramolecular ensemble of GSH with fluorone black (9-phenyl fluorone, FB) which is optically active and enables sensitive determination of GSH by resonance elastic light scattering (RELS). We have found that supramolecular interactions of GSH with FB can be probed with spectroscopic, RELS, and electrochemical methods. Our investigations show that RELS intensity for FB solutions increases with GSH concentration while fluorescence emission of FB is not affected, as quenching begins only above 0.8mM GSH. The UV-Vis difference spectra show a positive peak at 383nm and a negative peak at 458nm, indicating a higher-energy absorbing complex in comparison to the non-bonded FB host. Supramolecular interactions of FB with GSH have also been corroborated by electrochemical measurements involving two configurations of FB-GSH ensembles on electrodes: (i) an inverted orientation on Au-coated quartz crystal piezoelectrode (Au@SG-FB), with strong thiolate bonding to gold, and (ii) a non-inverted orientation on glassy carbon electrode (GCE@FB-GS), with weak π-π stacking attachment and efficient charge mediation through the ensemble. The formation of a supramolecular ensemble with hydrogen bonding has also been confirmed by quantum mechanical calculations. The discovery of supramolecular FB-GSH ensemble formation enables elucidating the mechanisms of strong RELS responses, changes in UV-Vis absorption spectra, and the electrochemical reactivity. Also, it provides new insights to the understanding of the efficient charge-transfer in redox potential homeostasis which is likely based on an intermediate formation of a similar type of supramolecular ensembles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supramolecular interactions of oxidative stress biomarker glutathione with fluorone black

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hepel, Maria; Stobiecka, Magdalena

2018-03-01

Oxidative stress biomarkers, including glutathione (GSH) and related compounds, are involved in a variety of interactions enabling redox potential maintenance in living cells and protection against radicals. Since the oxidative stress is promoting and, in many cases, inducing serious illnesses, monitoring of GSH levels can aid in diagnostics and disease prevention. Herein, we report on the discovery of the formation of a supramolecular ensemble of GSH with fluorone black (9-phenyl fluorone, FB) which is optically active and enables sensitive determination of GSH by resonance elastic light scattering (RELS). We have found that supramolecular interactions of GSH with FB can be probed with spectroscopic, RELS, and electrochemical methods. Our investigations show that RELS intensity for FB solutions increases with GSH concentration while fluorescence emission of FB is not affected, as quenching begins only above 0.8 mM GSH. The UV-Vis difference spectra show a positive peak at 383 nm and a negative peak at 458 nm, indicating a higher-energy absorbing complex in comparison to the non-bonded FB host. Supramolecular interactions of FB with GSH have also been corroborated by electrochemical measurements involving two configurations of FB-GSH ensembles on electrodes: (i) an inverted orientation on Au-coated quartz crystal piezoelectrode (Au@SG-FB), with strong thiolate bonding to gold, and (ii) a non-inverted orientation on glassy carbon electrode (GCE@FB-GS), with weak π-π stacking attachment and efficient charge mediation through the ensemble. The formation of a supramolecular ensemble with hydrogen bonding has also been confirmed by quantum mechanical calculations. The discovery of supramolecular FB-GSH ensemble formation enables elucidating the mechanisms of strong RELS responses, changes in UV-Vis absorption spectra, and the electrochemical reactivity. Also, it provides new insights to the understanding of the efficient charge-transfer in redox potential homeostasis which is likely based on an intermediate formation of a similar type of supramolecular ensembles.

Improved, ACMG-Compliant, in silico prediction of pathogenicity for missense substitutions encoded by TP53 variants.

PubMed

Fortuno, Cristina; James, Paul A; Young, Erin L; Feng, Bing; Olivier, Magali; Pesaran, Tina; Tavtigian, Sean V; Spurdle, Amanda B

2018-05-18

Clinical interpretation of germline missense variants represents a major challenge, including those in the TP53 Li-Fraumeni syndrome gene. Bioinformatic prediction is a key part of variant classification strategies. We aimed to optimize the performance of the Align-GVGD tool used for p53 missense variant prediction, and compare its performance to other bioinformatic tools (SIFT, PolyPhen-2) and ensemble methods (REVEL, BayesDel). Reference sets of assumed pathogenic and assumed benign variants were defined using functional and/or clinical data. Area under the curve and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) values were used as objective functions to select an optimized protein multi-sequence alignment with best performance for Align-GVGD. MCC comparison of tools using binary categories showed optimized Align-GVGD (C15 cut-off) combined with BayesDel (0.16 cut-off), or with REVEL (0.5 cut-off), to have the best overall performance. Further, a semi-quantitative approach using multiple tiers of bioinformatic prediction, validated using an independent set of non-functional and functional variants, supported use of Align-GVGD and BayesDel prediction for different strength of evidence levels in ACMG/AMP rules. We provide rationale for bioinformatic tool selection for TP53 variant classification, and have also computed relevant bioinformatic predictions for every possible p53 missense variant to facilitate their use by the scientific and medical community. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Nanofocusing with aberration-corrected rotationally parabolic refractive X-ray lenses

DOE PAGES

Seiboth, Frank; Wittwer, Felix; Scholz, Maria; ...

2018-01-01

Wavefront errors of rotationally parabolic refractive X-ray lenses made of beryllium (Be CRLs) have been recovered for various lens sets and X-ray beam configurations. Due to manufacturing via an embossing process, aberrations of individual lenses within the investigated ensemble are very similar. By deriving a mean single-lens deformation for the ensemble, aberrations of any arbitrary lens stack can be predicted from the ensemble with σ¯ = 0.034λ. Using these findings the expected focusing performance of current Be CRLs are modeled for relevant X-ray energies and bandwidths and it is shown that a correction of aberrations can be realised without priormore » lens characterization but simply based on the derived lens deformation. As a result, the performance of aberration-corrected Be CRLs is discussed and the applicability of aberration-correction demonstrated over wide X-ray energy ranges.« less

Load carriage, human performance, and employment standards.

PubMed

Taylor, Nigel A S; Peoples, Gregory E; Petersen, Stewart R

2016-06-01

The focus of this review is on the physiological considerations necessary for developing employment standards within occupations that have a heavy reliance on load carriage. Employees within military, fire fighting, law enforcement, and search and rescue occupations regularly work with heavy loads. For example, soldiers often carry loads >50 kg, whilst structural firefighters wear 20-25 kg of protective clothing and equipment, in addition to carrying external loads. It has long been known that heavy loads modify gait, mobility, metabolic rate, and efficiency, while concurrently elevating the risk of muscle fatigue and injury. In addition, load carriage often occurs within environmentally stressful conditions, with protective ensembles adding to the thermal burden of the workplace. Indeed, physiological strain relates not just to the mass and dimensions of carried objects, but to how those loads are positioned on and around the body. Yet heavy loads must be borne by men and women of varying body size, and with the expectation that operational capability will not be impinged. This presents a recruitment conundrum. How do employers identify capable and injury-resistant individuals while simultaneously avoiding discriminatory selection practices? In this communication, the relevant metabolic, cardiopulmonary, and thermoregulatory consequences of loaded work are reviewed, along with concomitant impediments to physical endurance and mobility. Also emphasised is the importance of including occupation-specific clothing, protective equipment, and loads during work-performance testing. Finally, recommendations are presented for how to address these issues when evaluating readiness for duty.

Ensembl comparative genomics resources.

PubMed

Herrero, Javier; Muffato, Matthieu; Beal, Kathryn; Fitzgerald, Stephen; Gordon, Leo; Pignatelli, Miguel; Vilella, Albert J; Searle, Stephen M J; Amode, Ridwan; Brent, Simon; Spooner, William; Kulesha, Eugene; Yates, Andrew; Flicek, Paul

2016-01-01

Evolution provides the unifying framework with which to understand biology. The coherent investigation of genic and genomic data often requires comparative genomics analyses based on whole-genome alignments, sets of homologous genes and other relevant datasets in order to evaluate and answer evolutionary-related questions. However, the complexity and computational requirements of producing such data are substantial: this has led to only a small number of reference resources that are used for most comparative analyses. The Ensembl comparative genomics resources are one such reference set that facilitates comprehensive and reproducible analysis of chordate genome data. Ensembl computes pairwise and multiple whole-genome alignments from which large-scale synteny, per-base conservation scores and constrained elements are obtained. Gene alignments are used to define Ensembl Protein Families, GeneTrees and homologies for both protein-coding and non-coding RNA genes. These resources are updated frequently and have a consistent informatics infrastructure and data presentation across all supported species. Specialized web-based visualizations are also available including synteny displays, collapsible gene tree plots, a gene family locator and different alignment views. The Ensembl comparative genomics infrastructure is extensively reused for the analysis of non-vertebrate species by other projects including Ensembl Genomes and Gramene and much of the information here is relevant to these projects. The consistency of the annotation across species and the focus on vertebrates makes Ensembl an ideal system to perform and support vertebrate comparative genomic analyses. We use robust software and pipelines to produce reference comparative data and make it freely available. Database URL: http://www.ensembl.org. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

The Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Yanqiu; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo

1999-01-01

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known Gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions (e.g., Miller 1994). Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz (1963) model as well as more realistic models of the oceans (Evensen and van Leeuwen 1996) and atmosphere (Houtekamer and Mitchell 1998). A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter equations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members (Burgers 1998). The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to quite puzzling in that results of state estimate are worse than for their filter analogue (Evensen 1997). In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use Lorenz (1963) model to test and compare the behavior of a variety implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Ensembl comparative genomics resources

PubMed Central

Muffato, Matthieu; Beal, Kathryn; Fitzgerald, Stephen; Gordon, Leo; Pignatelli, Miguel; Vilella, Albert J.; Searle, Stephen M. J.; Amode, Ridwan; Brent, Simon; Spooner, William; Kulesha, Eugene; Yates, Andrew; Flicek, Paul

2016-01-01

Evolution provides the unifying framework with which to understand biology. The coherent investigation of genic and genomic data often requires comparative genomics analyses based on whole-genome alignments, sets of homologous genes and other relevant datasets in order to evaluate and answer evolutionary-related questions. However, the complexity and computational requirements of producing such data are substantial: this has led to only a small number of reference resources that are used for most comparative analyses. The Ensembl comparative genomics resources are one such reference set that facilitates comprehensive and reproducible analysis of chordate genome data. Ensembl computes pairwise and multiple whole-genome alignments from which large-scale synteny, per-base conservation scores and constrained elements are obtained. Gene alignments are used to define Ensembl Protein Families, GeneTrees and homologies for both protein-coding and non-coding RNA genes. These resources are updated frequently and have a consistent informatics infrastructure and data presentation across all supported species. Specialized web-based visualizations are also available including synteny displays, collapsible gene tree plots, a gene family locator and different alignment views. The Ensembl comparative genomics infrastructure is extensively reused for the analysis of non-vertebrate species by other projects including Ensembl Genomes and Gramene and much of the information here is relevant to these projects. The consistency of the annotation across species and the focus on vertebrates makes Ensembl an ideal system to perform and support vertebrate comparative genomic analyses. We use robust software and pipelines to produce reference comparative data and make it freely available. Database URL: http://www.ensembl.org. PMID:26896847

Knowledge-Based Methods To Train and Optimize Virtual Screening Ensembles

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Ensemble docking can be a successful virtual screening technique that addresses the innate conformational heterogeneity of macromolecular drug targets. Yet, lacking a method to identify a subset of conformational states that effectively segregates active and inactive small molecules, ensemble docking may result in the recommendation of a large number of false positives. Here, three knowledge-based methods that construct structural ensembles for virtual screening are presented. Each method selects ensembles by optimizing an objective function calculated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve: either the area under the ROC curve (AUC) or a ROC enrichment factor (EF). As the number of receptor conformations, N, becomes large, the methods differ in their asymptotic scaling. Given a set of small molecules with known activities and a collection of target conformations, the most resource intense method is guaranteed to find the optimal ensemble but scales as O(2N). A recursive approximation to the optimal solution scales as O(N2), and a more severe approximation leads to a faster method that scales linearly, O(N). The techniques are generally applicable to any system, and we demonstrate their effectiveness on the androgen nuclear hormone receptor (AR), cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2), and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor δ (PPAR-δ) drug targets. Conformations that consisted of a crystal structure and molecular dynamics simulation cluster centroids were used to form AR and CDK2 ensembles. Multiple available crystal structures were used to form PPAR-δ ensembles. For each target, we show that the three methods perform similarly to one another on both the training and test sets. PMID:27097522

Physiological and Subjective Responses to Wearing the A/P22P-9(V) helicopter Aircrewman Chemical, Biological Protection Ensemble

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-21

information processing than someone still learning. As such, skilled responses are less susceptible to thermal stress decrements. Based on these test data...quantity you consume. Caffeine Coffee cups Tea ____ cups Soda cans Decaffeinated Coffee cups Tea _ _ cups Soda cans Alcoholic Beer 12 oz Wine 8 oz Liquor

Ensemble of classifiers for ontology enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenova, A. V.; Kureichik, V. M.

2018-05-01

A classifier is a basis of ontology learning systems. Classification of text documents is used in many applications, such as information retrieval, information extraction, definition of spam. A new ensemble of classifiers based on SVM (a method of support vectors), LSTM (neural network) and word embedding are suggested. An experiment was conducted on open data, which allows us to conclude that the proposed classification method is promising. The implementation of the proposed classifier is performed in the Matlab using the functions of the Text Analytics Toolbox. The principal difference between the proposed ensembles of classifiers is the high quality of classification of data at acceptable time costs.

Robust Deterministic Controlled Phase-Flip Gate and Controlled-Not Gate Based on Atomic Ensembles Embedded in Double-Sided Optical Cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, A.-Peng; Cheng, Liu-Yong; Guo, Qi; Zhang, Shou

2018-02-01

We first propose a scheme for controlled phase-flip gate between a flying photon qubit and the collective spin wave (magnon) of an atomic ensemble assisted by double-sided cavity quantum systems. Then we propose a deterministic controlled-not gate on magnon qubits with parity-check building blocks. Both the gates can be accomplished with 100% success probability in principle. Atomic ensemble is employed so that light-matter coupling is remarkably improved by collective enhancement. We assess the performance of the gates and the results show that they can be faithfully constituted with current experimental techniques.

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) and its applications to agricultural systems in the United States: Chapter 18

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Tan, Zhengxi; Chen, Mingshi; Liu, Jinxun; Wein, Anne; Li, Zhengpeng; Huang, Shengli; Oeding, Jennifer; Young, Claudia; Verma, Shashi B.; Suyker, Andrew E.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

The General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was es in individual models, it uses multiple site-scale biogeochemical models to perform model simulations. Second, it adopts Monte Carlo ensemble simulations of each simulation unit (one site/pixel or group of sites/pixels with similar biophysical conditions) to incorporate uncertainties and variability (as measured by variances and covariance) of input variables into model simulations. In this chapter, we illustrate the applications of GEMS at the site and regional scales with an emphasis on incorporating agricultural practices. Challenges in modeling soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse emissions are also discussed.

SVM feature selection based rotation forest ensemble classifiers to improve computer-aided diagnosis of Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Ozcift, Akin

2012-08-01

Parkinson disease (PD) is an age-related deterioration of certain nerve systems, which affects movement, balance, and muscle control of clients. PD is one of the common diseases which affect 1% of people older than 60 years. A new classification scheme based on support vector machine (SVM) selected features to train rotation forest (RF) ensemble classifiers is presented for improving diagnosis of PD. The dataset contains records of voice measurements from 31 people, 23 with PD and each record in the dataset is defined with 22 features. The diagnosis model first makes use of a linear SVM to select ten most relevant features from 22. As a second step of the classification model, six different classifiers are trained with the subset of features. Subsequently, at the third step, the accuracies of classifiers are improved by the utilization of RF ensemble classification strategy. The results of the experiments are evaluated using three metrics; classification accuracy (ACC), Kappa Error (KE) and Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC). Performance measures of two base classifiers, i.e. KStar and IBk, demonstrated an apparent increase in PD diagnosis accuracy compared to similar studies in literature. After all, application of RF ensemble classification scheme improved PD diagnosis in 5 of 6 classifiers significantly. We, numerically, obtained about 97% accuracy in RF ensemble of IBk (a K-Nearest Neighbor variant) algorithm, which is a quite high performance for Parkinson disease diagnosis.

Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Le Maître, Olivier P.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.

2016-10-01

An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

2017-04-01

Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO-LEPS ensemble forecasts. Deterministic verification scores (e.g., mean absolute error, bias) and probabilistic scores (e.g., CRPS) are used to evaluate the post-processing techniques. We conclude that the new adaptive method outperforms the simpler running bias-correction. The proposed adaptive method often outperforms the MBM method in removing bias. The MBM method has the advantage of correcting the ensemble spread, although it needs more training data.

Ensembl Plants: Integrating Tools for Visualizing, Mining, and Analyzing Plant Genomics Data.

PubMed

Bolser, Dan; Staines, Daniel M; Pritchard, Emily; Kersey, Paul

2016-01-01

Ensembl Plants ( http://plants.ensembl.org ) is an integrative resource presenting genome-scale information for a growing number of sequenced plant species (currently 33). Data provided includes genome sequence, gene models, functional annotation, and polymorphic loci. Various additional information are provided for variation data, including population structure, individual genotypes, linkage, and phenotype data. In each release, comparative analyses are performed on whole genome and protein sequences, and genome alignments and gene trees are made available that show the implied evolutionary history of each gene family. Access to the data is provided through a genome browser incorporating many specialist interfaces for different data types, and through a variety of additional methods for programmatic access and data mining. These access routes are consistent with those offered through the Ensembl interface for the genomes of non-plant species, including those of plant pathogens, pests, and pollinators.Ensembl Plants is updated 4-5 times a year and is developed in collaboration with our international partners in the Gramene ( http://www.gramene.org ) and transPLANT projects ( http://www.transplantdb.org ).

An Ensemble System Based on Hybrid EGARCH-ANN with Different Distributional Assumptions to Predict S&P 500 Intraday Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, S.; Boukadoum, M.

2015-10-01

Accurate forecasting of stock market volatility is an important issue in portfolio risk management. In this paper, an ensemble system for stock market volatility is presented. It is composed of three different models that hybridize the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process and the artificial neural network trained with the backpropagation algorithm (BPNN) to forecast stock market volatility under normal, t-Student, and generalized error distribution (GED) assumption separately. The goal is to design an ensemble system where each single hybrid model is capable to capture normality, excess skewness, or excess kurtosis in the data to achieve complementarity. The performance of each EGARCH-BPNN and the ensemble system is evaluated by the closeness of the volatility forecasts to realized volatility. Based on mean absolute error and mean of squared errors, the experimental results show that proposed ensemble model used to capture normality, skewness, and kurtosis in data is more accurate than the individual EGARCH-BPNN models in forecasting the S&P 500 intra-day volatility based on one and five-minute time horizons data.

Implementing the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm with macroscopic ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenenko, Henry; Byrnes, Tim

2016-05-01

Quantum computing implementations under consideration today typically deal with systems with microscopic degrees of freedom such as photons, ions, cold atoms, and superconducting circuits. The quantum information is stored typically in low-dimensional Hilbert spaces such as qubits, as quantum effects are strongest in such systems. It has, however, been demonstrated that quantum effects can be observed in mesoscopic and macroscopic systems, such as nanomechanical systems and gas ensembles. While few-qubit quantum information demonstrations have been performed with such macroscopic systems, a quantum algorithm showing exponential speedup over classical algorithms is yet to be shown. Here, we show that the Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm can be implemented with macroscopic ensembles. The encoding that we use avoids the detrimental effects of decoherence that normally plagues macroscopic implementations. We discuss two mapping procedures which can be chosen depending upon the constraints of the oracle and the experiment. Both methods have an exponential speedup over the classical case, and only require control of the ensembles at the level of the total spin of the ensembles. It is shown that both approaches reproduce the qubit Deutsch-Jozsa algorithm, and are robust under decoherence.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Assessing a local ensemble Kalman filter: perfect model experiments with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szunyogh, Istvan; Kostelich, Eric J.; Gyarmati, G.; Patil, D. J.; Hunt, Brian R.; Kalnay, Eugenia; Ott, Edward; Yorke, James A.

2005-08-01

The accuracy and computational efficiency of the recently proposed local ensemble Kalman filter (LEKF) data assimilation scheme is investigated on a state-of-the-art operational numerical weather prediction model using simulated observations. The model selected for this purpose is the T62 horizontal- and 28-level vertical-resolution version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction. The performance of the data assimilation system is assessed for different configurations of the LEKF scheme. It is shown that a modest size (40-member) ensemble is sufficient to track the evolution of the atmospheric state with high accuracy. For this ensemble size, the computational time per analysis is less than 9 min on a cluster of PCs. The analyses are extremely accurate in the mid-latitude storm track regions. The largest analysis errors, which are typically much smaller than the observational errors, occur where parametrized physical processes play important roles. Because these are also the regions where model errors are expected to be the largest, limitations of a real-data implementation of the ensemble-based Kalman filter may be easily mistaken for model errors. In light of these results, the importance of testing the ensemble-based Kalman filter data assimilation systems on simulated observations is stressed.

An ensemble framework for identifying essential proteins.

PubMed

Zhang, Xue; Xiao, Wangxin; Acencio, Marcio Luis; Lemke, Ney; Wang, Xujing

2016-08-25

Many centrality measures have been proposed to mine and characterize the correlations between network topological properties and protein essentiality. However, most of them show limited prediction accuracy, and the number of common predicted essential proteins by different methods is very small. In this paper, an ensemble framework is proposed which integrates gene expression data and protein-protein interaction networks (PINs). It aims to improve the prediction accuracy of basic centrality measures. The idea behind this ensemble framework is that different protein-protein interactions (PPIs) may show different contributions to protein essentiality. Five standard centrality measures (degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and subgraph centrality) are integrated into the ensemble framework respectively. We evaluated the performance of the proposed ensemble framework using yeast PINs and gene expression data. The results show that it can considerably improve the prediction accuracy of the five centrality measures individually. It can also remarkably increase the number of common predicted essential proteins among those predicted by each centrality measure individually and enable each centrality measure to find more low-degree essential proteins. This paper demonstrates that it is valuable to differentiate the contributions of different PPIs for identifying essential proteins based on network topological characteristics. The proposed ensemble framework is a successful paradigm to this end.

An adaptive incremental approach to constructing ensemble classifiers: application in an information-theoretic computer-aided decision system for detection of masses in mammograms.

PubMed

Mazurowski, Maciej A; Zurada, Jacek M; Tourassi, Georgia D

2009-07-01

Ensemble classifiers have been shown efficient in multiple applications. In this article, the authors explore the effectiveness of ensemble classifiers in a case-based computer-aided diagnosis system for detection of masses in mammograms. They evaluate two general ways of constructing subclassifiers by resampling of the available development dataset: Random division and random selection. Furthermore, they discuss the problem of selecting the ensemble size and propose two adaptive incremental techniques that automatically select the size for the problem at hand. All the techniques are evaluated with respect to a previously proposed information-theoretic CAD system (IT-CAD). The experimental results show that the examined ensemble techniques provide a statistically significant improvement (AUC = 0.905 +/- 0.024) in performance as compared to the original IT-CAD system (AUC = 0.865 +/- 0.029). Some of the techniques allow for a notable reduction in the total number of examples stored in the case base (to 1.3% of the original size), which, in turn, results in lower storage requirements and a shorter response time of the system. Among the methods examined in this article, the two proposed adaptive techniques are by far the most effective for this purpose. Furthermore, the authors provide some discussion and guidance for choosing the ensemble parameters.

Training set extension for SVM ensemble in P300-speller with familiar face paradigm.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Shi, Kaiyang; Gao, Ning; Li, Jian; Bai, Ou

2018-03-27

P300-spellers are brain-computer interface (BCI)-based character input systems. Support vector machine (SVM) ensembles are trained with large-scale training sets and used as classifiers in these systems. However, the required large-scale training data necessitate a prolonged collection time for each subject, which results in data collected toward the end of the period being contaminated by the subject's fatigue. This study aimed to develop a method for acquiring more training data based on a collected small training set. A new method was developed in which two corresponding training datasets in two sequences are superposed and averaged to extend the training set. The proposed method was tested offline on a P300-speller with the familiar face paradigm. The SVM ensemble with extended training set achieved 85% classification accuracy for the averaged results of four sequences, and 100% for 11 sequences in the P300-speller. In contrast, the conventional SVM ensemble with non-extended training set achieved only 65% accuracy for four sequences, and 92% for 11 sequences. The SVM ensemble with extended training set achieves higher classification accuracies than the conventional SVM ensemble, which verifies that the proposed method effectively improves the classification performance of BCI P300-spellers, thus enhancing their practicality.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

A new approach to human microRNA target prediction using ensemble pruning and rotation forest.

PubMed

Mousavi, Reza; Eftekhari, Mahdi; Haghighi, Mehdi Ghezelbash

2015-12-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that have important functions in gene regulation. Since finding miRNA target experimentally is costly and needs spending much time, the use of machine learning methods is a growing research area for miRNA target prediction. In this paper, a new approach is proposed by using two popular ensemble strategies, i.e. Ensemble Pruning and Rotation Forest (EP-RTF), to predict human miRNA target. For EP, the approach utilizes Genetic Algorithm (GA). In other words, a subset of classifiers from the heterogeneous ensemble is first selected by GA. Next, the selected classifiers are trained based on the RTF method and then are combined using weighted majority voting. In addition to seeking a better subset of classifiers, the parameter of RTF is also optimized by GA. Findings of the present study confirm that the newly developed EP-RTF outperforms (in terms of classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) the previously applied methods over four datasets in the field of human miRNA target. Diversity-error diagrams reveal that the proposed ensemble approach constructs individual classifiers which are more accurate and usually diverse than the other ensemble approaches. Given these experimental results, we highly recommend EP-RTF for improving the performance of miRNA target prediction.

EMPIRE and pyenda: Two ensemble-based data assimilation systems written in Fortran and Python

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geppert, Gernot; Browne, Phil; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan; Merker, Claire

2017-04-01

We present and compare the features of two ensemble-based data assimilation frameworks, EMPIRE and pyenda. Both frameworks allow to couple models to the assimilation codes using the Message Passing Interface (MPI), leading to extremely efficient and fast coupling between models and the data-assimilation codes. The Fortran-based system EMPIRE (Employing Message Passing Interface for Researching Ensembles) is optimized for parallel, high-performance computing. It currently includes a suite of data assimilation algorithms including variants of the ensemble Kalman and several the particle filters. EMPIRE is targeted at models of all kinds of complexity and has been coupled to several geoscience models, eg. the Lorenz-63 model, a barotropic vorticity model, the general circulation model HadCM3, the ocean model NEMO, and the land-surface model JULES. The Python-based system pyenda (Python Ensemble Data Assimilation) allows Fortran- and Python-based models to be used for data assimilation. Models can be coupled either using MPI or by using a Python interface. Using Python allows quick prototyping and pyenda is aimed at small to medium scale models. pyenda currently includes variants of the ensemble Kalman filter and has been coupled to the Lorenz-63 model, an advection-based precipitation nowcasting scheme, and the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Performance of multi-physics ensembles in convective precipitation events over northeastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Ortega, E.; Lorenzana, J.; Merino, A.; Fernández-González, S.; López, L.; Sánchez, J. L.

2017-07-01

Convective precipitation with hail greatly affects southwestern Europe, causing major economic losses. The local character of this meteorological phenomenon is a serious obstacle to forecasting. Therefore, the development of reliable short-term forecasts constitutes an essential challenge to minimizing and managing risks. However, deterministic outcomes are affected by different uncertainty sources, such as physics parameterizations. This study examines the performance of different combinations of physics schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to describe the spatial distribution of precipitation in convective environments with hail falls. Two 30-member multi-physics ensembles, with two and three domains of maximum resolution 9 and 3km each, were designed using various combinations of cumulus, microphysics and radiation schemes. The experiment was evaluated for 10 convective precipitation days with hail over 2005-2010 in northeastern Spain. Different indexes were used to evaluate the ability of each ensemble member to capture the precipitation patterns, which were compared with observations of a rain-gauge network. A standardized metric was constructed to identify optimal performers. Results show interesting differences between the two ensembles. In two domain simulations, the selection of cumulus parameterizations was crucial, with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme the best. In contrast, the Kain-Fristch cumulus scheme gave the poorest results, suggesting that it should not be used in the study area. Nevertheless, in three domain simulations, the cumulus schemes used in coarser domains were not critical and the best results depended mainly on microphysics schemes. The best performance was shown by Morrison, New Thomson and Goddard microphysics.

Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

PubMed

Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

2018-01-30

Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multi-Conformer Ensemble Docking to Difficult Protein Targets

DOE PAGES

Ellingson, Sally R.; Miao, Yinglong; Baudry, Jerome; ...

2014-09-08

We investigate large-scale ensemble docking using five proteins from the Directory of Useful Decoys (DUD, dud.docking.org) for which docking to crystal structures has proven difficult. Molecular dynamics trajectories are produced for each protein and an ensemble of representative conformational structures extracted from the trajectories. Docking calculations are performed on these selected simulation structures and ensemble-based enrichment factors compared with those obtained using docking in crystal structures of the same protein targets or random selection of compounds. We also found simulation-derived snapshots with improved enrichment factors that increased the chemical diversity of docking hits for four of the five selected proteins.more » A combination of all the docking results obtained from molecular dynamics simulation followed by selection of top-ranking compounds appears to be an effective strategy for increasing the number and diversity of hits when using docking to screen large libraries of chemicals against difficult protein targets.« less

Operational planning using Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Alison; Kirtman, Benjamin; Harrison, Scott; Gorman, Joe

2016-05-01

The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that can produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics is designing the Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles, such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We evaluated thirty years of forecasts using machine learning to select predictions for an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process.

Pairwise Classifier Ensemble with Adaptive Sub-Classifiers for fMRI Pattern Analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Eunwoo; Park, HyunWook

2017-02-01

The multi-voxel pattern analysis technique is applied to fMRI data for classification of high-level brain functions using pattern information distributed over multiple voxels. In this paper, we propose a classifier ensemble for multiclass classification in fMRI analysis, exploiting the fact that specific neighboring voxels can contain spatial pattern information. The proposed method converts the multiclass classification to a pairwise classifier ensemble, and each pairwise classifier consists of multiple sub-classifiers using an adaptive feature set for each class-pair. Simulated and real fMRI data were used to verify the proposed method. Intra- and inter-subject analyses were performed to compare the proposed method with several well-known classifiers, including single and ensemble classifiers. The comparison results showed that the proposed method can be generally applied to multiclass classification in both simulations and real fMRI analyses.

Double-well chimeras in 2D lattice of chaotic bistable elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepelev, I. A.; Bukh, A. V.; Vadivasova, T. E.; Anishchenko, V. S.; Zakharova, A.

2018-01-01

We investigate spatio-temporal dynamics of a 2D ensemble of nonlocally coupled chaotic cubic maps in a bistability regime. In particular, we perform a detailed study on the transition ;coherence - incoherence; for varying coupling strength for a fixed interaction radius. For the 2D ensemble we show the appearance of amplitude and phase chimera states previously reported for 1D ensembles of nonlocally coupled chaotic systems. Moreover, we uncover a novel type of chimera state, double-well chimera, which occurs due to the interplay of the bistability of the local dynamics and the 2D ensemble structure. Additionally, we find double-well chimera behavior for steady states which we call double-well chimera death. A distinguishing feature of chimera patterns observed in the lattice is that they mainly combine clusters of different chimera types: phase, amplitude and double-well chimeras.

Can-CSC-GBE: Developing Cost-sensitive Classifier with Gentleboost Ensemble for breast cancer classification using protein amino acids and imbalanced data.

PubMed

Ali, Safdar; Majid, Abdul; Javed, Syed Gibran; Sattar, Mohsin

2016-06-01

Early prediction of breast cancer is important for effective treatment and survival. We developed an effective Cost-Sensitive Classifier with GentleBoost Ensemble (Can-CSC-GBE) for the classification of breast cancer using protein amino acid features. In this work, first, discriminant information of the protein sequences related to breast tissue is extracted. Then, the physicochemical properties hydrophobicity and hydrophilicity of amino acids are employed to generate molecule descriptors in different feature spaces. For comparison, we obtained results by combining Cost-Sensitive learning with conventional ensemble of AdaBoostM1 and Bagging. The proposed Can-CSC-GBE system has effectively reduced the misclassification costs and thereby improved the overall classification performance. Our novel approach has highlighted promising results as compared to the state-of-the-art ensemble approaches. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ensemble rank learning approach for gene prioritization.

PubMed

Lee, Po-Feng; Soo, Von-Wun

2013-01-01

Several different computational approaches have been developed to solve the gene prioritization problem. We intend to use the ensemble boosting learning techniques to combine variant computational approaches for gene prioritization in order to improve the overall performance. In particular we add a heuristic weighting function to the Rankboost algorithm according to: 1) the absolute ranks generated by the adopted methods for a certain gene, and 2) the ranking relationship between all gene-pairs from each prioritization result. We select 13 known prostate cancer genes in OMIM database as training set and protein coding gene data in HGNC database as test set. We adopt the leave-one-out strategy for the ensemble rank boosting learning. The experimental results show that our ensemble learning approach outperforms the four gene-prioritization methods in ToppGene suite in the ranking results of the 13 known genes in terms of mean average precision, ROC and AUC measures.

Protecting a quantum memory for a photonic polarization qubit in a cold atomic ensemble by dynamical decoupling.

PubMed

Wu, Yuelong; Chen, Lirong; Xu, Zhongxiao; Wang, Hai

2014-09-22

We report an experimental demonstration of storage of photonic polarization qubit (PPQ) protected by dynamical decoupling (DD). PPQ's states are stored as a superposition of two spin waves by electromagnetically-induced-transparency (EIT). Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) DD sequences are applied to the spin-wave superposition to suppress its decoherence. Thus, the quantum process fidelity remains better than 0.8 for up to 800 μs storage time, which is 3.4-times longer than the corresponding storage time of ~180 μs without the CPMG sequences. This work is a key step towards the storage of single-photon polarization qubit protected by the CPMG sequences.

Translating Extreme Precipitation Data from Climate Change Projections into Resilient Engineering Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; Anderson, C.

2016-12-01

Engineers generally use historical precipitation trends to inform assumptions and parameters for long-lived infrastructure designs. However, resilient design calls for the adjustment of current engineering practice to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different than the past. Despite the availability of future projections from downscaled climate models, there remains a considerable mismatch between climate model outputs and the inputs needed in the engineering community to incorporate climate resiliency. These factors include differences in temporal and spatial scales, model uncertainties, and a lack of criteria for selection of an ensemble of models. This research addresses the limitations to working with climate data by providing a framework for the use of publicly available downscaled climate projections to inform engineering resiliency. The framework consists of five steps: 1) selecting the data source based on the engineering application, 2) extracting the data at a specific location, 3) validating for performance against observed data, 4) post-processing for bias or scale, and 5) selecting the ensemble and calculating statistics. The framework is illustrated with an example application to extreme precipitation-frequency statistics, the 25-year daily precipitation depth, using four publically available climate data sources: NARCCAP, USGS, Reclamation, and MACA. The attached figure presents the results for step 5 from the framework, analyzing how the 24H25Y depth changes when the model ensemble is culled based on model performance against observed data, for both post-processing techniques: bias-correction and change factor. Culling the model ensemble increases both the mean and median values for all data sources, and reduces range for NARCCAP and MACA ensembles due to elimination of poorer performing models, and in some cases, those that predict a decrease in future 24H25Y precipitation volumes. This result is especially relevant to engineers who wish to reduce the range of the ensemble and remove contradicting models; however, this result is not generalizable for all cases. Finally, this research highlights the need for the formation of an intermediate entity that is able to translate climate projections into relevant engineering information.

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

Correlated variability modifies working memory fidelity in primate prefrontal neuronal ensembles

PubMed Central

Leavitt, Matthew L.; Pieper, Florian; Sachs, Adam J.; Martinez-Trujillo, Julio C.

2017-01-01

Neurons in the primate lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) encode working memory (WM) representations via sustained firing, a phenomenon hypothesized to arise from recurrent dynamics within ensembles of interconnected neurons. Here, we tested this hypothesis by using microelectrode arrays to examine spike count correlations (rsc) in LPFC neuronal ensembles during a spatial WM task. We found a pattern of pairwise rsc during WM maintenance indicative of stronger coupling between similarly tuned neurons and increased inhibition between dissimilarly tuned neurons. We then used a linear decoder to quantify the effects of the high-dimensional rsc structure on information coding in the neuronal ensembles. We found that the rsc structure could facilitate or impair coding, depending on the size of the ensemble and tuning properties of its constituent neurons. A simple optimization procedure demonstrated that near-maximum decoding performance could be achieved using a relatively small number of neurons. These WM-optimized subensembles were more signal correlation (rsignal)-diverse and anatomically dispersed than predicted by the statistics of the full recorded population of neurons, and they often contained neurons that were poorly WM-selective, yet enhanced coding fidelity by shaping the ensemble’s rsc structure. We observed a pattern of rsc between LPFC neurons indicative of recurrent dynamics as a mechanism for WM-related activity and that the rsc structure can increase the fidelity of WM representations. Thus, WM coding in LPFC neuronal ensembles arises from a complex synergy between single neuron coding properties and multidimensional, ensemble-level phenomena. PMID:28275096

Investigating energy-based pool structure selection in the structure ensemble modeling with experimental distance constraints: The example from a multidomain protein Pub1.

PubMed

Zhu, Guanhua; Liu, Wei; Bao, Chenglong; Tong, Dudu; Ji, Hui; Shen, Zuowei; Yang, Daiwen; Lu, Lanyuan

2018-05-01

The structural variations of multidomain proteins with flexible parts mediate many biological processes, and a structure ensemble can be determined by selecting a weighted combination of representative structures from a simulated structure pool, producing the best fit to experimental constraints such as interatomic distance. In this study, a hybrid structure-based and physics-based atomistic force field with an efficient sampling strategy is adopted to simulate a model di-domain protein against experimental paramagnetic relaxation enhancement (PRE) data that correspond to distance constraints. The molecular dynamics simulations produce a wide range of conformations depicted on a protein energy landscape. Subsequently, a conformational ensemble recovered with low-energy structures and the minimum-size restraint is identified in good agreement with experimental PRE rates, and the result is also supported by chemical shift perturbations and small-angle X-ray scattering data. It is illustrated that the regularizations of energy and ensemble-size prevent an arbitrary interpretation of protein conformations. Moreover, energy is found to serve as a critical control to refine the structure pool and prevent data overfitting, because the absence of energy regularization exposes ensemble construction to the noise from high-energy structures and causes a more ambiguous representation of protein conformations. Finally, we perform structure-ensemble optimizations with a topology-based structure pool, to enhance the understanding on the ensemble results from different sources of pool candidates. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Force Sensor Based Tool Condition Monitoring Using a Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Guofeng; Yang, Yinwei; Li, Zhimeng

2014-01-01

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) plays an important role in improving machining efficiency and guaranteeing workpiece quality. In order to realize reliable recognition of the tool condition, a robust classifier needs to be constructed to depict the relationship between tool wear states and sensory information. However, because of the complexity of the machining process and the uncertainty of the tool wear evolution, it is hard for a single classifier to fit all the collected samples without sacrificing generalization ability. In this paper, heterogeneous ensemble learning is proposed to realize tool condition monitoring in which the support vector machine (SVM), hidden Markov model (HMM) and radius basis function (RBF) are selected as base classifiers and a stacking ensemble strategy is further used to reflect the relationship between the outputs of these base classifiers and tool wear states. Based on the heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier, an online monitoring system is constructed in which the harmonic features are extracted from force signals and a minimal redundancy and maximal relevance (mRMR) algorithm is utilized to select the most prominent features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a titanium alloy milling experiment was carried out and samples with different tool wear states were collected to build the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier. Moreover, the homogeneous ensemble learning model and majority voting strategy are also adopted to make a comparison. The analysis and comparison results show that the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier performs better in both classification accuracy and stability. PMID:25405514

Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

2016-06-01

Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

Dynamics of interacting Dicke model in a coupled-cavity array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badshah, Fazal; Qamar, Shahid; Paternostro, Mauro

2014-09-01

We consider the dynamics of an array of mutually interacting cavities, each containing an ensemble of N two-level atoms. By exploring the possibilities offered by ensembles of various dimensions and a range of atom-light and photon-hopping values, we investigate the generation of multisite entanglement, as well as the performance of excitation transfer across the array, resulting from the competition between on-site nonlinearities of the matter-light interaction and intersite photon hopping. In particular, for a three-cavity interacting system it is observed that the initial excitation in the first cavity completely transfers to the ensemble in the third cavity through the hopping of photons between the adjacent cavities. Probabilities of the transfer of excitation of the cavity modes and ensembles exhibit characteristics of fast and slow oscillations governed by coupling and hopping parameters, respectively. In the large-hopping case, by seeding an initial excitation in the cavity at the center of the array, a tripartite W state, as well as a bipartite maximally entangled state, is obtained, depending on the interaction time. Population of the ensemble in a cavity has a positive impact on the rate of excitation transfer between the ensembles and their local cavity modes. In particular, for ensembles of five to seven atoms, tripartite W states can be produced even when the hopping rate is comparable to the cavity-atom coupling rate. A similar behavior of the transfer of excitation is observed for a four-coupled-cavity system with two initial excitations.

Force sensor based tool condition monitoring using a heterogeneous ensemble learning model.

PubMed

Wang, Guofeng; Yang, Yinwei; Li, Zhimeng

2014-11-14

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) plays an important role in improving machining efficiency and guaranteeing workpiece quality. In order to realize reliable recognition of the tool condition, a robust classifier needs to be constructed to depict the relationship between tool wear states and sensory information. However, because of the complexity of the machining process and the uncertainty of the tool wear evolution, it is hard for a single classifier to fit all the collected samples without sacrificing generalization ability. In this paper, heterogeneous ensemble learning is proposed to realize tool condition monitoring in which the support vector machine (SVM), hidden Markov model (HMM) and radius basis function (RBF) are selected as base classifiers and a stacking ensemble strategy is further used to reflect the relationship between the outputs of these base classifiers and tool wear states. Based on the heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier, an online monitoring system is constructed in which the harmonic features are extracted from force signals and a minimal redundancy and maximal relevance (mRMR) algorithm is utilized to select the most prominent features. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a titanium alloy milling experiment was carried out and samples with different tool wear states were collected to build the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier. Moreover, the homogeneous ensemble learning model and majority voting strategy are also adopted to make a comparison. The analysis and comparison results show that the proposed heterogeneous ensemble learning classifier performs better in both classification accuracy and stability.

The role of ensemble post-processing for modeling the ensemble tail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2016-04-01

The past decades the numerical weather prediction community has witnessed a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecast and state estimation (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Buizza et al., 2008), in an attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated with initial-condition and model errors. An important benefit of a probabilistic framework is the improved prediction of extreme events. However, one may ask to what extent such model estimates contain information on the occurrence probability of extreme events and how this information can be optimally extracted. Different approaches have been proposed and applied on real-world systems which, based on extreme value theory, allow the estimation of extreme-event probabilities conditional on forecasts and state estimates (Ferro, 2007; Friederichs, 2010). Using ensemble predictions generated with a model of low dimensionality, a thorough investigation is presented quantifying the change of predictability of extreme events associated with ensemble post-processing and other influencing factors including the finite ensemble size, lead time and model assumption and the use of different covariates (ensemble mean, maximum, spread...) for modeling the tail distribution. Tail modeling is performed by deriving extreme-quantile estimates using peak-over-threshold representation (generalized Pareto distribution) or quantile regression. Common ensemble post-processing methods aim to improve mostly the ensemble mean and spread of a raw forecast (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). Conditional tail modeling, on the other hand, is a post-processing in itself, focusing on the tails only. Therefore, it is unclear how applying ensemble post-processing prior to conditional tail modeling impacts the skill of extreme-event predictions. This work is investigating this question in details. Buizza, Leutbecher, and Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 2051-2066.Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 3366-3382.Ferro, 2007: A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Weather and Forecasting 22 (5), 1089-1100.Friederichs, 2010: Statistical downscaling of extreme precipitation events using extreme value theory. Extremes 13, 109-132.Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 807-818.

Ensemble of trees approaches to risk adjustment for evaluating a hospital's performance.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Traskin, Mikhail; Lorch, Scott A; George, Edward I; Small, Dylan

2015-03-01

A commonly used method for evaluating a hospital's performance on an outcome is to compare the hospital's observed outcome rate to the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient (case) mix and service. The process of calculating the hospital's expected outcome rate given its patient mix and service is called risk adjustment (Iezzoni 1997). Risk adjustment is critical for accurately evaluating and comparing hospitals' performances since we would not want to unfairly penalize a hospital just because it treats sicker patients. The key to risk adjustment is accurately estimating the probability of an Outcome given patient characteristics. For cases with binary outcomes, the method that is commonly used in risk adjustment is logistic regression. In this paper, we consider ensemble of trees methods as alternatives for risk adjustment, including random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Both random forests and BART are modern machine learning methods that have been shown recently to have excellent performance for prediction of outcomes in many settings. We apply these methods to carry out risk adjustment for the performance of neonatal intensive care units (NICU). We show that these ensemble of trees methods outperform logistic regression in predicting mortality among babies treated in NICU, and provide a superior method of risk adjustment compared to logistic regression.

How accurately do force fields represent protein side chain ensembles?

PubMed

Petrović, Dušan; Wang, Xue; Strodel, Birgit

2018-05-23

Although the protein backbone is the most fundamental part of the structure, the fine-tuning of side-chain conformations is important for protein function, for example, in protein-protein and protein-ligand interactions, and also in enzyme catalysis. While several benchmarks testing the performance of protein force fields for side chain properties have already been published, they often considered only a few force fields and were not tested against the same experimental observables; hence, they are not directly comparable. In this work, we explore the ability of twelve force fields, which are different flavors of AMBER, CHARMM, OPLS, or GROMOS, to reproduce average rotamer angles and rotamer populations obtained from extensive NMR studies of the 3 J and residual dipolar coupling constants for two small proteins: ubiquitin and GB3. Based on a total of 196 μs sampling time, our results reveal that all force fields identify the correct side chain angles, while the AMBER and CHARMM force fields clearly outperform the OPLS and GROMOS force fields in estimating rotamer populations. The three best force fields for representing the protein side chain dynamics are AMBER 14SB, AMBER 99SB*-ILDN, and CHARMM36. Furthermore, we observe that the side chain ensembles of buried amino acid residues are generally more accurately represented than those of the surface exposed residues. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessment of Multiple Daily Precipitation Statistics in ERA-Interim Driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX Experiments Against High Resolution Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, E.; Fantini, A.; Raffaele, F.; Torma, C. Z.; Bacer, S.; Giorgi, F.; Ahrens, B.; Dubois, C.; Sanchez, E.; Verdecchia, M.

2017-12-01

We assess the statistics of different daily precipitation indices in ensembles of Med-CORDEX and EUROCORDEX experiments at high resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.11° , or RCM11) and medium resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.44° , or RCM44) with regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations for the period 1989-2008. The assessment is carried out by comparison with a set of high resolution observation datasets for 9 European subregions. The statistics analyzed include quantitative metrics for mean precipitation, daily precipitation Probability Density Functions (PDFs), daily precipitation intensity, frequency, 95th percentile and 95th percentile of dry spell length. We assess both an ensemble including all Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX models and one including the Med-CORDEX models alone. For the All Models ensembles, the RCM11 one shows a remarkable performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and seasonal cycle of mean precipitation over all regions, with a consistent and marked improvement compared to the RCM44 ensemble and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A good consistency with observations by the RCM11 ensemble (and a substantial improvement compared to RCM44 and ERA-Interim) is found also for the daily precipitation PDFs, mean intensity and, to a lesser extent, the 95th percentile. In fact, for some regions the RCM11 ensemble overestimates the occurrence of very high intensity events while for one region the models underestimate the occurrence of the largest extremes. The RCM11 ensemble still shows a general tendency to underestimate the dry day frequency and 95th percentile of dry spell length over wetter regions, with only a marginal improvement compared to the lower resolution models. This indicates that the problem of the excessive production of low precipitation events found in many climate models persists also at relatively high resolutions, at least in wet climate regimes. Concerning the Med-CORDEX model ensembles we find that their performance is of similar quality as that of the all-models over the Mediterranean regions analyzed. Finally, we stress the need of consistent and quality checked fine scale observation datasets for the assessment of RCMs run at increasingly high horizontal resolutions.

A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marécal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Andersson, C.; Andersson, S.; Arteta, J.; Beekmann, M.; Benedictow, A.; Bergström, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Cansado, A.; Chéroux, F.; Colette, A.; Coman, A.; Curier, R. L.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Drouin, A.; Elbern, H.; Emili, E.; Engelen, R. J.; Eskes, H. J.; Foret, G.; Friese, E.; Gauss, M.; Giannaros, C.; Guth, J.; Joly, M.; Jaumouillé, E.; Josse, B.; Kadygrov, N.; Kaiser, J. W.; Krajsek, K.; Kuenen, J.; Kumar, U.; Liora, N.; Lopez, E.; Malherbe, L.; Martinez, I.; Melas, D.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Moinat, P.; Morales, T.; Parmentier, J.; Piacentini, A.; Plu, M.; Poupkou, A.; Queguiner, S.; Robertson, L.; Rouïl, L.; Schaap, M.; Segers, A.; Sofiev, M.; Thomas, M.; Timmermans, R.; Valdebenito, Á.; van Velthoven, P.; van Versendaal, R.; Vira, J.; Ung, A.

2015-03-01

This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014). This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs and PAN + PAN precursors) over 8 vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performances of the system are assessed daily, weekly and 3 monthly (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the median ensemble to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The time period of this case study is also used to illustrate that the median ensemble generally outperforms each of the individual models and that it is still robust even if two of the seven models are missing. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10 and show an overall improvement over time. The change of the skills of the ensemble over the past two summers for ozone and the past two winters for PM10 are discussed in the paper. While the evolution of the ozone scores is not significant, there are improvements of PM10 over the past two winters that can be at least partly attributed to new developments on aerosols in the seven individual models. Nevertheless, the year to year changes in the models and ensemble skills are also linked to the variability of the meteorological conditions and of the set of observations used to calculate the statistical indicators. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tiantian; Tao, Yumeng; Li, Jingjing; Zhu, Qian; Su, Lu; He, Xiaojia; Zhang, Xiaoming

2018-05-01

The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs' configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900-2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006-2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Design of an Evolutionary Approach for Intrusion Detection

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

A novel evolutionary approach is proposed for effective intrusion detection based on benchmark datasets. The proposed approach can generate a pool of noninferior individual solutions and ensemble solutions thereof. The generated ensembles can be used to detect the intrusions accurately. For intrusion detection problem, the proposed approach could consider conflicting objectives simultaneously like detection rate of each attack class, error rate, accuracy, diversity, and so forth. The proposed approach can generate a pool of noninferior solutions and ensembles thereof having optimized trade-offs values of multiple conflicting objectives. In this paper, a three-phase, approach is proposed to generate solutions to a simple chromosome design in the first phase. In the first phase, a Pareto front of noninferior individual solutions is approximated. In the second phase of the proposed approach, the entire solution set is further refined to determine effective ensemble solutions considering solution interaction. In this phase, another improved Pareto front of ensemble solutions over that of individual solutions is approximated. The ensemble solutions in improved Pareto front reported improved detection results based on benchmark datasets for intrusion detection. In the third phase, a combination method like majority voting method is used to fuse the predictions of individual solutions for determining prediction of ensemble solution. Benchmark datasets, namely, KDD cup 1999 and ISCX 2012 dataset, are used to demonstrate and validate the performance of the proposed approach for intrusion detection. The proposed approach can discover individual solutions and ensemble solutions thereof with a good support and a detection rate from benchmark datasets (in comparison with well-known ensemble methods like bagging and boosting). In addition, the proposed approach is a generalized classification approach that is applicable to the problem of any field having multiple conflicting objectives, and a dataset can be represented in the form of labelled instances in terms of its features. PMID:24376390

29 CFR Appendix E to Subpart L of... - Test Methods for Protective Clothing

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... test ensemble consisting of the sample unit, the two prepared blocks, a piece of leather outsole 10 to... perpendicular to the 1-inch (2.5 cm) edge. B. Apparatus. (i) Six-ounce (.17 kg) weight tension clamps shall be used so designed that the six ounces (.17 kg) of weight are distributed evenly across the complete...

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

Analyzing the impact of changing size and composition of a crop model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The use of an ensemble of crop growth simulation models is a practice recently adopted in order to quantify aspects of uncertainties in model simulations. Yet, while the climate modelling community has extensively investigated the properties of model ensembles and their implications, this has hardly been investigated for crop model ensembles (Wallach et al., 2016). In their ensemble of 27 wheat models, Martre et al. (2015) found that the accuracy of the multi-model ensemble-average only increases up to an ensemble size of ca. 10, but does not improve when including more models in the analysis. However, even when this number of members is reached, questions about the impact of the addition or removal of a member to/from the ensemble arise. When selecting ensemble members, identifying members with poor performance or giving implausible results can make a large difference on the outcome. The objective of this study is to set up a methodology that defines indicators to show the effects of changing the ensemble composition and size on simulation results, when a selection procedure of ensemble members is applied. Ensemble mean or median, and variance are measures used to depict ensemble results among other indicators. We are utilizing simulations from an ensemble of wheat models that have been used to construct impact response surfaces (Pirttioja et al., 2015) (IRSs). These show the response of an impact variable (e.g., crop yield) to systematic changes in two explanatory variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). Using these, we compare different sub-ensembles in terms of the mean, median and spread, and also by comparing IRSs. The methodology developed here allows comparing an ensemble before and after applying any procedure that changes the ensemble composition and size by measuring the impact of this decision on the ensemble central tendency measures. The methodology could also be further developed to compare the effect of changing ensemble composition and size on IRS features. References Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J.W., Rötter, R.P., Boote, K.J., Ruane, A.C., Thorburn, P.J., Cammarano, D., Hatfield, J.L., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A.J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R.F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L.A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Kersebaum, K.C., Muller, C., Kumar, S.N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Osborne, T.M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stockle, C.O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F.L., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J.W., Wolf, J., 2015. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 911-925. Pirttioja N., Carter T., Fronzek S., Bindi M., Hoffmann H., Palosuo T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Tao F., Trnka M., Acutis M., Asseng S., Baranowski P., Basso B., Bodin P., Buis S., Cammarano D., Deligios P., Destain M.-F., Doro L., Dumont B., Ewert F., Ferrise R., Francois L., Gaiser T., Hlavinka P., Jacquemin I., Kersebaum K.-C., Kollas C., Krzyszczak J., Lorite I. J., Minet J., Minguez M. I., Montesion M., Moriondo M., Müller C., Nendel C., Öztürk I., Perego A., Rodriguez, A., Ruane A.C., Ruget F., Sanna M., Semenov M., Slawinski C., Stratonovitch P., Supit I., Waha K., Wang E., Wu L., Zhao Z., Rötter R.P, 2015. A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces. Clim. Res., 65:87-105, doi:10.3354/cr01322 Wallach, D., Mearns, L.O. Ruane, A.C., Rötter, R.P., Asseng, S. (2016). Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling. Climate Change (in press) doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1803-1.

Ensemble docking to difficult targets in early-stage drug discovery: Methodology and application to fibroblast growth factor 23.

PubMed

Velazquez, Hector A; Riccardi, Demian; Xiao, Zhousheng; Quarles, Leigh Darryl; Yates, Charless Ryan; Baudry, Jerome; Smith, Jeremy C

2018-02-01

Ensemble docking is now commonly used in early-stage in silico drug discovery and can be used to attack difficult problems such as finding lead compounds which can disrupt protein-protein interactions. We give an example of this methodology here, as applied to fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), a protein hormone that is responsible for regulating phosphate homeostasis. The first small-molecule antagonists of FGF23 were recently discovered by combining ensemble docking with extensive experimental target validation data (Science Signaling, 9, 2016, ra113). Here, we provide a detailed account of how ensemble-based high-throughput virtual screening was used to identify the antagonist compounds discovered in reference (Science Signaling, 9, 2016, ra113). Moreover, we perform further calculations, redocking those antagonist compounds identified in reference (Science Signaling, 9, 2016, ra113) that performed well on drug-likeness filters, to predict possible binding regions. These predicted binding modes are rescored with the molecular mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM/PBSA) approach to calculate the most likely binding site. Our findings suggest that the antagonist compounds antagonize FGF23 through the disruption of protein-protein interactions between FGF23 and fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Generating highly accurate prediction hypotheses through collaborative ensemble learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsov, Nino; Pavlovski, Martin; Basnarkov, Lasko; Kocarev, Ljupco

2017-03-01

Ensemble generation is a natural and convenient way of achieving better generalization performance of learning algorithms by gathering their predictive capabilities. Here, we nurture the idea of ensemble-based learning by combining bagging and boosting for the purpose of binary classification. Since the former improves stability through variance reduction, while the latter ameliorates overfitting, the outcome of a multi-model that combines both strives toward a comprehensive net-balancing of the bias-variance trade-off. To further improve this, we alter the bagged-boosting scheme by introducing collaboration between the multi-model’s constituent learners at various levels. This novel stability-guided classification scheme is delivered in two flavours: during or after the boosting process. Applied among a crowd of Gentle Boost ensembles, the ability of the two suggested algorithms to generalize is inspected by comparing them against Subbagging and Gentle Boost on various real-world datasets. In both cases, our models obtained a 40% generalization error decrease. But their true ability to capture details in data was revealed through their application for protein detection in texture analysis of gel electrophoresis images. They achieve improved performance of approximately 0.9773 AUROC when compared to the AUROC of 0.9574 obtained by an SVM based on recursive feature elimination.

Stochastic dynamics and mechanosensitivity of myosin II minifilaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, Philipp J.; Erdmann, Thorsten; Schwarz, Ulrich S.

2014-09-01

Tissue cells are in a state of permanent mechanical tension that is maintained mainly by myosin II minifilaments, which are bipolar assemblies of tens of myosin II molecular motors contracting actin networks and bundles. Here we introduce a stochastic model for myosin II minifilaments as two small myosin II motor ensembles engaging in a stochastic tug-of-war. Each of the two ensembles is described by the parallel cluster model that allows us to use exact stochastic simulations and at the same time to keep important molecular details of the myosin II cross-bridge cycle. Our simulation and analytical results reveal a strong dependence of myosin II minifilament dynamics on environmental stiffness that is reminiscent of the cellular response to substrate stiffness. For small stiffness, minifilaments form transient crosslinks exerting short spikes of force with negligible mean. For large stiffness, minifilaments form near permanent crosslinks exerting a mean force which hardly depends on environmental elasticity. This functional switch arises because dissociation after the power stroke is suppressed by force (catch bonding) and because ensembles can no longer perform the power stroke at large forces. Symmetric myosin II minifilaments perform a random walk with an effective diffusion constant which decreases with increasing ensemble size, as demonstrated for rigid substrates with an analytical treatment.

Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

2012-01-01

In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

Improved discriminability of spatiotemporal neural patterns in rat motor cortical areas as directional choice learning progresses

PubMed Central

Mao, Hongwei; Yuan, Yuan; Si, Jennie

2015-01-01

Animals learn to choose a proper action among alternatives to improve their odds of success in food foraging and other activities critical for survival. Through trial-and-error, they learn correct associations between their choices and external stimuli. While a neural network that underlies such learning process has been identified at a high level, it is still unclear how individual neurons and a neural ensemble adapt as learning progresses. In this study, we monitored the activity of single units in the rat medial and lateral agranular (AGm and AGl, respectively) areas as rats learned to make a left or right side lever press in response to a left or right side light cue. We noticed that rat movement parameters during the performance of the directional choice task quickly became stereotyped during the first 2–3 days or sessions. But learning the directional choice problem took weeks to occur. Accompanying rats' behavioral performance adaptation, we observed neural modulation by directional choice in recorded single units. Our analysis shows that ensemble mean firing rates in the cue-on period did not change significantly as learning progressed, and the ensemble mean rate difference between left and right side choices did not show a clear trend of change either. However, the spatiotemporal firing patterns of the neural ensemble exhibited improved discriminability between the two directional choices through learning. These results suggest a spatiotemporal neural coding scheme in a motor cortical neural ensemble that may be responsible for and contributing to learning the directional choice task. PMID:25798093

Möbius domain-wall fermions on gradient-flowed dynamical HISQ ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkowitz, Evan; Bouchard, Chris; Chang, Chia Cheng; Clark, M. A.; Joó, Bálint; Kurth, Thorsten; Monahan, Christopher; Nicholson, Amy; Orginos, Kostas; Rinaldi, Enrico; Vranas, Pavlos; Walker-Loud, André

2017-09-01

We report on salient features of a mixed lattice QCD action using valence Möbius domain-wall fermions solved on the dynamical Nf=2 +1 +1 highly improved staggered quark sea-quark ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration. The approximate chiral symmetry properties of the valence fermions are shown to be significantly improved by utilizing the gradient-flow scheme to first smear the highly improved staggered quark configurations. The greater numerical cost of the Möbius domain-wall inversions is mitigated by the highly efficient QUDA library optimized for NVIDIA GPU accelerated compute nodes. We have created an interface to this optimized QUDA solver in Chroma. We provide tuned parameters of the action and performance of QUDA using ensembles with the lattice spacings a ≃{0.15 ,0.12 ,0.09 } fm and pion masses mπ≃{310 ,220 ,130 } MeV . We have additionally generated two new ensembles with a ˜0.12 fm and mπ˜{400 ,350 } MeV . With a fixed flow time of tg f=1 in lattice units, the residual chiral symmetry breaking of the valence fermions is kept below 10% of the light quark mass on all ensembles, mres≲0.1 ×ml , with moderate values of the fifth dimension L5 and a domain-wall height M5≤1.3 . As a benchmark calculation, we perform a continuum, infinite volume, physical pion and kaon mass extrapolation of FK±/Fπ± and demonstrate our results are independent of flow time and consistent with the FLAG determination of this quantity at the level of less than one standard deviation.

Muscle activation described with a differential equation model for large ensembles of locally coupled molecular motors.

PubMed

Walcott, Sam

2014-10-01

Molecular motors, by turning chemical energy into mechanical work, are responsible for active cellular processes. Often groups of these motors work together to perform their biological role. Motors in an ensemble are coupled and exhibit complex emergent behavior. Although large motor ensembles can be modeled with partial differential equations (PDEs) by assuming that molecules function independently of their neighbors, this assumption is violated when motors are coupled locally. It is therefore unclear how to describe the ensemble behavior of the locally coupled motors responsible for biological processes such as calcium-dependent skeletal muscle activation. Here we develop a theory to describe locally coupled motor ensembles and apply the theory to skeletal muscle activation. The central idea is that a muscle filament can be divided into two phases: an active and an inactive phase. Dynamic changes in the relative size of these phases are described by a set of linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). As the dynamics of the active phase are described by PDEs, muscle activation is governed by a set of coupled ODEs and PDEs, building on previous PDE models. With comparison to Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the theory captures the behavior of locally coupled ensembles. The theory also plausibly describes and predicts muscle experiments from molecular to whole muscle scales, suggesting that a micro- to macroscale muscle model is within reach.

Impact of Representing Model Error in a Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutty, Govindan; Muraleedharan, Rohit; Kesarkar, Amit P.

2018-03-01

Uncertainties in the numerical weather prediction models are generally not well-represented in ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) systems. The performance of an ensemble-based DA system becomes suboptimal, if the sources of error are undersampled in the forecast system. The present study examines the effect of accounting for model error treatments in the hybrid ensemble transform Kalman filter—three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system (hybrid) in the track forecast of two tropical cyclones viz. Hudhud and Thane, formed over the Bay of Bengal, using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. We investigated the effect of two types of model error treatment schemes and their combination on the hybrid DA system; (i) multiphysics approach, which uses different combination of cumulus, microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes, (ii) stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, which perturbs the horizontal wind and potential temperature tendencies, (iii) a combination of both multiphysics and SKEB scheme. Substantial improvements are noticed in the track positions of both the cyclones, when flow-dependent ensemble covariance is used in 3DVAR framework. Explicit model error representation is found to be beneficial in treating the underdispersive ensembles. Among the model error schemes used in this study, a combination of multiphysics and SKEB schemes has outperformed the other two schemes with improved track forecast for both the tropical cyclones.

A polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system for efficient parameter inference and robust uncertainty assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Huang, W.

2015-11-01

This paper presents a polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system (PCEHPS) for an efficient and robust uncertainty assessment of model parameters and predictions, in which possibilistic reasoning is infused into probabilistic parameter inference with simultaneous consideration of randomness and fuzziness. The PCEHPS is developed through a two-stage factorial polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework, which consists of an ensemble of PCEs to approximate the behavior of the hydrologic model, significantly speeding up the exhaustive sampling of the parameter space. Multiple hypothesis testing is then conducted to construct an ensemble of reduced-dimensionality PCEs with only the most influential terms, which is meaningful for achieving uncertainty reduction and further acceleration of parameter inference. The PCEHPS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. A detailed comparison between the HYMOD hydrologic model, the ensemble of PCEs, and the ensemble of reduced PCEs is performed in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal temporal and spatial variations in parameter sensitivities due to the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems, and the effects (magnitude and direction) of parametric interactions depending on different hydrological metrics. The case study demonstrates that the PCEHPS is capable not only of capturing both expert knowledge and probabilistic information in the calibration process, but also of implementing an acceleration of more than 10 times faster than the hydrologic model without compromising the predictive accuracy.

Social Behaviour Shapes Hypothalamic Neural Ensemble Representations Of Conspecific Sex

PubMed Central

Remedios, Ryan; Kennedy, Ann; Zelikowsky, Moriel; Grewe, Benjamin F.; Schnitzer, Mark J.; Anderson, David J.

2017-01-01

Summary All animals possess a repertoire of innate (or instinctive1,2) behaviors, which can be performed without training. Whether such behaviors are mediated by anatomically distinct and/or genetically specified neural pathways remains a matter of debate3-5. Here we report that hypothalamic neural ensemble representations underlying innate social behaviors are shaped by social experience. Estrogen receptor 1-expressing (Esr1+) neurons in the ventrolateral subdivision of the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMHvl) control mating and fighting in rodents6-8. We used microendoscopy9 to image VMHvl Esr1+ neuronal activity in male mice engaged in these social behaviours. In sexually and socially experienced adult males, divergent and characteristic neural ensembles represented male vs. female conspecifics. But surprisingly, in inexperienced adult males, male and female intruders activated overlapping neuronal populations. Sex-specific ensembles gradually separated as the mice acquired social and sexual experience. In mice permitted to investigate but not mount or attack conspecifics, ensemble divergence did not occur. However, 30 min of sexual experience with a female was sufficient to promote both male vs. female ensemble separation and attack, measured 24 hr later. These observations uncover an unexpected social experience-dependent component to the formation of hypothalamic neural assemblies controlling innate social behaviors. More generally, they reveal plasticity and dynamic coding in an evolutionarily ancient deep subcortical structure that is traditionally viewed as a “hard-wired” system. PMID:29052632

An adaptive incremental approach to constructing ensemble classifiers: Application in an information-theoretic computer-aided decision system for detection of masses in mammograms

PubMed Central

Mazurowski, Maciej A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

2009-01-01

Ensemble classifiers have been shown efficient in multiple applications. In this article, the authors explore the effectiveness of ensemble classifiers in a case-based computer-aided diagnosis system for detection of masses in mammograms. They evaluate two general ways of constructing subclassifiers by resampling of the available development dataset: Random division and random selection. Furthermore, they discuss the problem of selecting the ensemble size and propose two adaptive incremental techniques that automatically select the size for the problem at hand. All the techniques are evaluated with respect to a previously proposed information-theoretic CAD system (IT-CAD). The experimental results show that the examined ensemble techniques provide a statistically significant improvement (AUC=0.905±0.024) in performance as compared to the original IT-CAD system (AUC=0.865±0.029). Some of the techniques allow for a notable reduction in the total number of examples stored in the case base (to 1.3% of the original size), which, in turn, results in lower storage requirements and a shorter response time of the system. Among the methods examined in this article, the two proposed adaptive techniques are by far the most effective for this purpose. Furthermore, the authors provide some discussion and guidance for choosing the ensemble parameters. PMID:19673196

Establishment of a New National Reference Ensemble of Water Triple Point Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senn, Remo

2017-10-01

The results of the Bilateral Comparison EURAMET.T-K3.5 (w/VSL, The Netherlands) with the goal to link Switzerland's ITS-90 realization (Ar to Al) to the latest key comparisons gave strong indications for a discrepancy in the realization of the triple point of water. Due to the age of the cells of about twenty years, it was decided to replace the complete reference ensemble with new "state-of-the-art" cells. Three new water triple point cells from three different suppliers were purchased, as well as a new maintenance bath for an additional improvement of the realization. In several loops measurements were taken, each cell of both ensembles intercompared, and the deviations and characteristics determined. The measurements show a significant lower average value of the old ensemble of 0.59 ± 0.25 mK (k=2) in comparison with the new one. Likewise, the behavior of the old cells is very unstable with a drift downward during the realization of the triple point. Based on these results the impact of the new ensemble on the ITS-90 realization from Ar to Al was calculated and set in the context to performed calibrations and their related uncertainties in the past. This paper presents the instrumentation, cells, measurement procedure, results, uncertainties and impact of the new national reference ensemble of water triple point cells on the current ITS-90 realization in Switzerland.

An iterative ensemble quasi-linear data assimilation approach for integrated reservoir monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. Y.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2013-12-01

Reservoir forecasting and management are increasingly relying on an integrated reservoir monitoring approach, which involves data assimilation to calibrate the complex process of multi-phase flow and transport in the porous medium. The numbers of unknowns and measurements arising in such joint inversion problems are usually very large. The ensemble Kalman filter and other ensemble-based techniques are popular because they circumvent the computational barriers of computing Jacobian matrices and covariance matrices explicitly and allow nonlinear error propagation. These algorithms are very useful but their performance is not well understood and it is not clear how many realizations are needed for satisfactory results. In this presentation we introduce an iterative ensemble quasi-linear data assimilation approach for integrated reservoir monitoring. It is intended for problems for which the posterior or conditional probability density function is not too different from a Gaussian, despite nonlinearity in the state transition and observation equations. The algorithm generates realizations that have the potential to adequately represent the conditional probability density function (pdf). Theoretical analysis sheds light on the conditions under which this algorithm should work well and explains why some applications require very few realizations while others require many. This algorithm is compared with the classical ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 2003) and with Gu and Oliver's (2007) iterative ensemble Kalman filter on a synthetic problem of monitoring a reservoir using wellbore pressure and flux data.

Ensemble support vector machine classification of dementia using structural MRI and mini-mental state examination.

PubMed

Sørensen, Lauge; Nielsen, Mads

2018-05-15

The International Challenge for Automated Prediction of MCI from MRI data offered independent, standardized comparison of machine learning algorithms for multi-class classification of normal control (NC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), converting MCI (cMCI), and Alzheimer's disease (AD) using brain imaging and general cognition. We proposed to use an ensemble of support vector machines (SVMs) that combined bagging without replacement and feature selection. SVM is the most commonly used algorithm in multivariate classification of dementia, and it was therefore valuable to evaluate the potential benefit of ensembling this type of classifier. The ensemble SVM, using either a linear or a radial basis function (RBF) kernel, achieved multi-class classification accuracies of 55.6% and 55.0% in the challenge test set (60 NC, 60 MCI, 60 cMCI, 60 AD), resulting in a third place in the challenge. Similar feature subset sizes were obtained for both kernels, and the most frequently selected MRI features were the volumes of the two hippocampal subregions left presubiculum and right subiculum. Post-challenge analysis revealed that enforcing a minimum number of selected features and increasing the number of ensemble classifiers improved classification accuracy up to 59.1%. The ensemble SVM outperformed single SVM classifications consistently in the challenge test set. Ensemble methods using bagging and feature selection can improve the performance of the commonly applied SVM classifier in dementia classification. This resulted in competitive classification accuracies in the International Challenge for Automated Prediction of MCI from MRI data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating uncertainties in multi-layer soil moisture estimation with support vector machines and ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Di; Mishra, Ashok K.; Yu, Zhongbo

2016-07-01

This paper examines the combination of support vector machines (SVM) and the dual ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique to estimate root zone soil moisture at different soil layers up to 100 cm depth. Multiple experiments are conducted in a data rich environment to construct and validate the SVM model and to explore the effectiveness and robustness of the EnKF technique. It was observed that the performance of SVM relies more on the initial length of training set than other factors (e.g., cost function, regularization parameter, and kernel parameters). The dual EnKF technique proved to be efficient to improve SVM with observed data either at each time step or at a flexible time steps. The EnKF technique can reach its maximum efficiency when the updating ensemble size approaches a certain threshold. It was observed that the SVM model performance for the multi-layer soil moisture estimation can be influenced by the rainfall magnitude (e.g., dry and wet spells).

Self-organization and emergent behaviour: distributed decision making in sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wal, Ariën J.

2013-01-01

One of the most challenging phenomena that can be observed in an ensemble of interacting agents is that of self-organization, viz. emergent, collective behaviour, also known as synergy. The concept of synergy is also the key idea behind sensor fusion. The idea often loosely phrased as '1+1>2', strongly suggests that it is possible to make up an ensemble of similar agents, assume some kind of interaction and that in such a system 'synergy' will automatically evolve. In a more rigorous approach, the paradigm may be expressed by identifying an ensemble performance measure that yields more than a superposition of the individual performance measures of the constituents. In this study, we demonstrate that distributed decision making in a sensor network can be described by a simple system consisting of phase oscillators. In the thermodynamic limit, this system shows spontaneous organization. Simulations indicate that also for finite populations, phase synchronization spontaneously emerges if the coupling strength is strong enough.

Research and application of a novel hybrid decomposition-ensemble learning paradigm with error correction for daily PM10 forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hongyuan; Wang, Deyun; Yue, Chenqiang; Liu, Yanling; Guo, Haixiang

2018-03-01

In this paper, a hybrid decomposition-ensemble learning paradigm combining error correction is proposed for improving the forecast accuracy of daily PM10 concentration. The proposed learning paradigm is consisted of the following two sub-models: (1) PM10 concentration forecasting model; (2) error correction model. In the proposed model, fast ensemble empirical mode decomposition (FEEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) are applied to disassemble original PM10 concentration series and error sequence, respectively. The extreme learning machine (ELM) model optimized by cuckoo search (CS) algorithm is utilized to forecast the components generated by FEEMD and VMD. In order to prove the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model, two real-world PM10 concentration series respectively collected from Beijing and Harbin located in China are adopted to conduct the empirical study. The results show that the proposed model performs remarkably better than all other considered models without error correction, which indicates the superior performance of the proposed model.

High strength films from oriented, hydrogen-bonded "graphamid" 2D polymer molecular ensembles.

PubMed

Sandoz-Rosado, Emil; Beaudet, Todd D; Andzelm, Jan W; Wetzel, Eric D

2018-02-27

The linear polymer poly(p-phenylene terephthalamide), better known by its tradename Kevlar, is an icon of modern materials science due to its remarkable strength, stiffness, and environmental resistance. Here, we propose a new two-dimensional (2D) polymer, "graphamid", that closely resembles Kevlar in chemical structure, but is mechanically advantaged by virtue of its 2D structure. Using atomistic calculations, we show that graphamid comprises covalently-bonded sheets bridged by a high population of strong intermolecular hydrogen bonds. Molecular and micromechanical calculations predict that these strong intermolecular interactions allow stiff, high strength (6-8 GPa), and tough films from ensembles of finite graphamid molecules. In contrast, traditional 2D materials like graphene have weak intermolecular interactions, leading to ensembles of low strength (0.1-0.5 GPa) and brittle fracture behavior. These results suggest that hydrogen-bonded 2D polymers like graphamid would be transformative in enabling scalable, lightweight, high performance polymer films of unprecedented mechanical performance.

An adaptive Gaussian process-based iterative ensemble smoother for data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ju, Lei; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Meng, Long; Wu, Laosheng; Zeng, Lingzao

2018-05-01

Accurate characterization of subsurface hydraulic conductivity is vital for modeling of subsurface flow and transport. The iterative ensemble smoother (IES) has been proposed to estimate the heterogeneous parameter field. As a Monte Carlo-based method, IES requires a relatively large ensemble size to guarantee its performance. To improve the computational efficiency, we propose an adaptive Gaussian process (GP)-based iterative ensemble smoother (GPIES) in this study. At each iteration, the GP surrogate is adaptively refined by adding a few new base points chosen from the updated parameter realizations. Then the sensitivity information between model parameters and measurements is calculated from a large number of realizations generated by the GP surrogate with virtually no computational cost. Since the original model evaluations are only required for base points, whose number is much smaller than the ensemble size, the computational cost is significantly reduced. The applicability of GPIES in estimating heterogeneous conductivity is evaluated by the saturated and unsaturated flow problems, respectively. Without sacrificing estimation accuracy, GPIES achieves about an order of magnitude of speed-up compared with the standard IES. Although subsurface flow problems are considered in this study, the proposed method can be equally applied to other hydrological models.

EnsembleGASVR: a novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms.

PubMed

Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Kleftogiannis, Dimitrios; Likothanasis, Spiros; Tsakalidis, Athanasios; Mavroudi, Seferina

2014-08-15

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem of missing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a two-step algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. Datasets and codes are freely available on the Web at http://prlab.ceid.upatras.gr/EnsembleGASVR/dataset-codes.zip. All the required information about the article is available through http://prlab.ceid.upatras.gr/EnsembleGASVR/site.html. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Conformational and functional analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories by Self-Organising Maps

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are powerful tools to investigate the conformational dynamics of proteins that is often a critical element of their function. Identification of functionally relevant conformations is generally done clustering the large ensemble of structures that are generated. Recently, Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) were reported performing more accurately and providing more consistent results than traditional clustering algorithms in various data mining problems. We present a novel strategy to analyse and compare conformational ensembles of protein domains using a two-level approach that combines SOMs and hierarchical clustering. Results The conformational dynamics of the α-spectrin SH3 protein domain and six single mutants were analysed by MD simulations. The Cα's Cartesian coordinates of conformations sampled in the essential space were used as input data vectors for SOM training, then complete linkage clustering was performed on the SOM prototype vectors. A specific protocol to optimize a SOM for structural ensembles was proposed: the optimal SOM was selected by means of a Taguchi experimental design plan applied to different data sets, and the optimal sampling rate of the MD trajectory was selected. The proposed two-level approach was applied to single trajectories of the SH3 domain independently as well as to groups of them at the same time. The results demonstrated the potential of this approach in the analysis of large ensembles of molecular structures: the possibility of producing a topological mapping of the conformational space in a simple 2D visualisation, as well as of effectively highlighting differences in the conformational dynamics directly related to biological functions. Conclusions The use of a two-level approach combining SOMs and hierarchical clustering for conformational analysis of structural ensembles of proteins was proposed. It can easily be extended to other study cases and to conformational ensembles from other sources. PMID:21569575

Comparison of Filtering Methods for the Modeling and Retrospective Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.). Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters—a basic particle filter (PF) with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF), and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC)—and three ensemble filters—the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF), and the rank histogram filter (RHF)—were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003–2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1–5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in the past. PMID:24762780

EL_PSSM-RT: DNA-binding residue prediction by integrating ensemble learning with PSSM Relation Transformation.

PubMed

Zhou, Jiyun; Lu, Qin; Xu, Ruifeng; He, Yulan; Wang, Hongpeng

2017-08-29

Prediction of DNA-binding residue is important for understanding the protein-DNA recognition mechanism. Many computational methods have been proposed for the prediction, but most of them do not consider the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. In this paper, we first propose a novel residue encoding method, referred to as the Position Specific Score Matrix (PSSM) Relation Transformation (PSSM-RT), to encode residues by utilizing the relationships of evolutionary information between residues. PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 are used to evaluate PSSM-RT and two existing PSSM encoding methods by five-fold cross-validation. Performance evaluations indicate that PSSM-RT is more effective than previous methods. This validates the point that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction. An ensemble learning classifier (EL_PSSM-RT) is also proposed by combining ensemble learning model and PSSM-RT to better handle the imbalance between binding and non-binding residues in datasets. EL_PSSM-RT is evaluated by five-fold cross-validation using PDNA-62 and PDNA-224 as well as two independent datasets TS-72 and TS-61. Performance comparisons with existing predictors on the four datasets demonstrate that EL_PSSM-RT is the best-performing method among all the predicting methods with improvement between 0.02-0.07 for MCC, 4.18-21.47% for ST and 0.013-0.131 for AUC. Furthermore, we analyze the importance of the pair-relationships extracted by PSSM-RT and the results validates the usefulness of PSSM-RT for encoding DNA-binding residues. We propose a novel prediction method for the prediction of DNA-binding residue with the inclusion of relationship of evolutionary information and ensemble learning. Performance evaluation shows that the relationship of evolutionary information between residues is indeed useful in DNA-binding residue prediction and ensemble learning can be used to address the data imbalance issue between binding and non-binding residues. A web service of EL_PSSM-RT ( http://hlt.hitsz.edu.cn:8080/PSSM-RT_SVM/ ) is provided for free access to the biological research community.

Classifying injury narratives of large administrative databases for surveillance-A practical approach combining machine learning ensembles and human review.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Corns, Helen L; Lehto, Mark R

2017-01-01

Injury narratives are now available real time and include useful information for injury surveillance and prevention. However, manual classification of the cause or events leading to injury found in large batches of narratives, such as workers compensation claims databases, can be prohibitive. In this study we compare the utility of four machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Single word and Bi-gram models, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression) for classifying narratives into Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness event leading to injury classifications for a large workers compensation database. These algorithms are known to do well classifying narrative text and are fairly easy to implement with off-the-shelf software packages such as Python. We propose human-machine learning ensemble approaches which maximize the power and accuracy of the algorithms for machine-assigned codes and allow for strategic filtering of rare, emerging or ambiguous narratives for manual review. We compare human-machine approaches based on filtering on the prediction strength of the classifier vs. agreement between algorithms. Regularized Logistic Regression (LR) was the best performing algorithm alone. Using this algorithm and filtering out the bottom 30% of predictions for manual review resulted in high accuracy (overall sensitivity/positive predictive value of 0.89) of the final machine-human coded dataset. The best pairings of algorithms included Naïve Bayes with Support Vector Machine whereby the triple ensemble NB SW =NB BI-GRAM =SVM had very high performance (0.93 overall sensitivity/positive predictive value and high accuracy (i.e. high sensitivity and positive predictive values)) across both large and small categories leaving 41% of the narratives for manual review. Integrating LR into this ensemble mix improved performance only slightly. For large administrative datasets we propose incorporation of methods based on human-machine pairings such as we have done here, utilizing readily-available off-the-shelf machine learning techniques and resulting in only a fraction of narratives that require manual review. Human-machine ensemble methods are likely to improve performance over total manual coding. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Clustering Classification compete SVM and One-Class classifiers applied on plant microRNAs Data.

PubMed

Yousef, Malik; Khalifa, Waleed; AbedAllah, Loai

2016-12-22

The performance of many learning and data mining algorithms depends critically on suitable metrics to assess efficiency over the input space. Learning a suitable metric from examples may, therefore, be the key to successful application of these algorithms. We have demonstrated that the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) classification can be significantly improved by learning a distance metric from labeled examples. The clustering ensemble is used to define the distance between points in respect to how they co-cluster. This distance is then used within the framework of the kNN algorithm to define a classifier named ensemble clustering kNN classifier (EC-kNN). In many instances in our experiments we achieved highest accuracy while SVM failed to perform as well. In this study, we compare the performance of a two-class classifier using EC-kNN with different one-class and two-class classifiers. The comparison was applied to seven different plant microRNA species considering eight feature selection methods. In this study, the averaged results show that ECkNN outperforms all other methods employed here and previously published results for the same data. In conclusion, this study shows that the chosen classifier shows high performance when the distance metric is carefully chosen.

Ensemble Clustering Classification Applied to Competing SVM and One-Class Classifiers Exemplified by Plant MicroRNAs Data.

PubMed

Yousef, Malik; Khalifa, Waleed; AbdAllah, Loai

2016-12-01

The performance of many learning and data mining algorithms depends critically on suitable metrics to assess efficiency over the input space. Learning a suitable metric from examples may, therefore, be the key to successful application of these algorithms. We have demonstrated that the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) classification can be significantly improved by learning a distance metric from labeled examples. The clustering ensemble is used to define the distance between points in respect to how they co-cluster. This distance is then used within the framework of the kNN algorithm to define a classifier named ensemble clustering kNN classifier (EC-kNN). In many instances in our experiments we achieved highest accuracy while SVM failed to perform as well. In this study, we compare the performance of a two-class classifier using EC-kNN with different one-class and two-class classifiers. The comparison was applied to seven different plant microRNA species considering eight feature selection methods. In this study, the averaged results show that EC-kNN outperforms all other methods employed here and previously published results for the same data. In conclusion, this study shows that the chosen classifier shows high performance when the distance metric is carefully chosen.

Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Kazuo; Hara, Masahiro; Kunii, Masaru; Seko, Hiromu; Yamaguchi, Munehiko

2011-05-01

Different initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble prediction were compared by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) as a part of the intercomparison of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Five initial perturbation methods for mesoscale ensemble prediction were developed for B08RDP and compared at MRI: (1) a downscaling method of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week EPS (WEP), (2) a targeted global model singular vector (GSV) method, (3) a mesoscale model singular vector (MSV) method based on the adjoint model of the JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM), (4) a mesoscale breeding growing mode (MBD) method based on the NHM forecast and (5) a local ensemble transform (LET) method based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) using NHM. These perturbation methods were applied to the preliminary experiments of the B08RDP Tier-1 mesoscale ensemble prediction with a horizontal resolution of 15 km. To make the comparison easier, the same horizontal resolution (40 km) was employed for the three mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods (MSV, MBD and LET). The GSV method completely outperformed the WEP method, confirming the advantage of targeting in mesoscale EPS. The GSV method generally performed well with regard to root mean square errors of the ensemble mean, large growth rates of ensemble spreads throughout the 36-h forecast period, and high detection rates and high Brier skill scores (BSSs) for weak rains. On the other hand, the mesoscale model-based initial perturbation methods showed good detection rates and BSSs for intense rains. The MSV method showed a rapid growth in the ensemble spread of precipitation up to a forecast time of 6 h, which suggests suitability of the mesoscale SV for short-range EPSs, but the initial large growth of the perturbation did not last long. The performance of the MBD method was good for ensemble prediction of intense rain with a relatively small computing cost. The LET method showed similar characteristics to the MBD method, but the spread and growth rate were slightly smaller and the relative operating characteristic area skill score and BSS did not surpass those of MBD. These characteristic features of the five methods were confirmed by checking the evolution of the total energy norms and their growth rates. Characteristics of the initial perturbations obtained by four methods (GSV, MSV, MBD and LET) were examined for the case of a synoptic low-pressure system passing over eastern China. With GSV and MSV, the regions of large spread were near the low-pressure system, but with MSV, the distribution was more concentrated on the mesoscale disturbance. On the other hand, large-spread areas were observed southwest of the disturbance in MBD and LET. The horizontal pattern of LET perturbation was similar to that of MBD, but the amplitude of the LET perturbation reflected the observation density.

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple "dressed" PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based PF.

Impact of a protective vest and spacer garment on exercise-heat strain.

PubMed

Cheuvront, Samuel N; Goodman, Daniel A; Kenefick, Robert W; Montain, Scott J; Sawka, Michael N

2008-03-01

Protective vests worn by global security personnel, and weighted vests worn by athletes, may increase physiological strain due to added load, increased clothing insulation and vapor resistance. The impact of protective vest clothing properties on physiological strain, and the potential of a spacer garment to reduce physiological strain, was examined. Eleven men performed 3 trials of intermittent treadmill walking over 4 h in a hot, dry environment (35 degrees C, 30% rh). Volunteers wore the US Army battledress uniform (trial B), B + protective vest (trial P), and B + P + spacer garment (trial S). Biophysical clothing properties were determined and found similar to many law enforcement, industry, and sports ensembles. Physiological measurements included core (T (c)), mean skin (T (sk)) and chest (T (chest)) temperatures, heart rate (HR), and sweating rate (SR). The independent impact of clothing was determined by equating metabolic rate in all trials. In trial P, HR was +7 b/min higher after 1 h of exercise and +19 b/min by the fourth hour compared to B (P < 0.05). T (c) (+0.30 degrees C), T (sk) (+1.0 degrees C) and Physiological Strain Index were all higher in P than B (P < 0.05). S did not abate these effects except to reduce T (sk) (P > S) via a lower T (chest) (-0.40 degrees C) (P < 0.05). SR was higher (P < 0.05) in P and S versus B, but the magnitude of differences was small. A protective vest increases physiological strain independent of added load, while a spacer garment does not alter this outcome.

A Nonlinear Model for Hippocampal Cognitive Prosthesis: Memory Facilitation by Hippocampal Ensemble Stimulation

PubMed Central

Hampson, Robert E.; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H.M.; Sweatt, Andrew J.; Riley, Mitchell R.; Gerhardt, Gregory A.; Shin, Dae C.; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z.; Berger, Theodore W.; Deadwyler, Samuel A.

2012-01-01

Collaborative investigations have characterized how multineuron hippocampal ensembles encode memory necessary for subsequent successful performance by rodents in a delayed nonmatch to sample (DNMS) task and utilized that information to provide the basis for a memory prosthesis to enhance performance. By employing a unique nonlinear dynamic multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) model, developed and adapted to hippocampal neural ensemble firing patterns derived from simultaneous recorded CA1 and CA3 activity, it was possible to extract information encoded in the sample phase necessary for successful performance in the nonmatch phase of the task. The extension of this MIMO model to online delivery of electrical stimulation delivered to the same recording loci that mimicked successful CA1 firing patterns, provided the means to increase levels of performance on a trial-by-trial basis. Inclusion of several control procedures provides evidence for the specificity of effective MIMO model generated patterns of electrical stimulation. Increased utility of the MIMO model as a prosthesis device was exhibited by the demonstration of cumulative increases in DNMS task performance with repeated MIMO stimulation over many sessions on both stimulation and nonstimulation trials, suggesting overall system modification with continued exposure. Results reported here are compatible with and extend prior demonstrations and further support the candidacy of the MIMO model as an effective cortical prosthesis. PMID:22438334

Ensemble analyses improve signatures of tumour hypoxia and reveal inter-platform differences

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The reproducibility of transcriptomic biomarkers across datasets remains poor, limiting clinical application. We and others have suggested that this is in-part caused by differential error-structure between datasets, and their incomplete removal by pre-processing algorithms. Methods To test this hypothesis, we systematically assessed the effects of pre-processing on biomarker classification using 24 different pre-processing methods and 15 distinct signatures of tumour hypoxia in 10 datasets (2,143 patients). Results We confirm strong pre-processing effects for all datasets and signatures, and find that these differ between microarray versions. Importantly, exploiting different pre-processing techniques in an ensemble technique improved classification for a majority of signatures. Conclusions Assessing biomarkers using an ensemble of pre-processing techniques shows clear value across multiple diseases, datasets and biomarkers. Importantly, ensemble classification improves biomarkers with initially good results but does not result in spuriously improved performance for poor biomarkers. While further research is required, this approach has the potential to become a standard for transcriptomic biomarkers. PMID:24902696

Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

2015-05-01

In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

Synchrony suppression in ensembles of coupled oscillators via adaptive vanishing feedback.

PubMed

Montaseri, Ghazal; Yazdanpanah, Mohammad Javad; Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael

2013-09-01

Synchronization and emergence of a collective mode is a general phenomenon, frequently observed in ensembles of coupled self-sustained oscillators of various natures. In several circumstances, in particular in cases of neurological pathologies, this state of the active medium is undesirable. Destruction of this state by a specially designed stimulation is a challenge of high clinical relevance. Typically, the precise effect of an external action on the ensemble is unknown, since the microscopic description of the oscillators and their interactions are not available. We show that, desynchronization in case of a large degree of uncertainty about important features of the system is nevertheless possible; it can be achieved by virtue of a feedback loop with an additional adaptation of parameters. The adaptation also ensures desynchronization of ensembles with non-stationary, time-varying parameters. We perform the stability analysis of the feedback-controlled system and demonstrate efficient destruction of synchrony for several models, including those of spiking and bursting neurons.

[Computer aided diagnosis model for lung tumor based on ensemble convolutional neural network].

PubMed

Wang, Yuanyuan; Zhou, Tao; Lu, Huiling; Wu, Cuiying; Yang, Pengfei

2017-08-01

The convolutional neural network (CNN) could be used on computer-aided diagnosis of lung tumor with positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT), which can provide accurate quantitative analysis to compensate for visual inertia and defects in gray-scale sensitivity, and help doctors diagnose accurately. Firstly, parameter migration method is used to build three CNNs (CT-CNN, PET-CNN, and PET/CT-CNN) for lung tumor recognition in CT, PET, and PET/CT image, respectively. Then, we aimed at CT-CNN to obtain the appropriate model parameters for CNN training through analysis the influence of model parameters such as epochs, batchsize and image scale on recognition rate and training time. Finally, three single CNNs are used to construct ensemble CNN, and then lung tumor PET/CT recognition was completed through relative majority vote method and the performance between ensemble CNN and single CNN was compared. The experiment results show that the ensemble CNN is better than single CNN on computer-aided diagnosis of lung tumor.

Synchrony suppression in ensembles of coupled oscillators via adaptive vanishing feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaseri, Ghazal; Javad Yazdanpanah, Mohammad; Pikovsky, Arkady; Rosenblum, Michael

2013-09-01

Synchronization and emergence of a collective mode is a general phenomenon, frequently observed in ensembles of coupled self-sustained oscillators of various natures. In several circumstances, in particular in cases of neurological pathologies, this state of the active medium is undesirable. Destruction of this state by a specially designed stimulation is a challenge of high clinical relevance. Typically, the precise effect of an external action on the ensemble is unknown, since the microscopic description of the oscillators and their interactions are not available. We show that, desynchronization in case of a large degree of uncertainty about important features of the system is nevertheless possible; it can be achieved by virtue of a feedback loop with an additional adaptation of parameters. The adaptation also ensures desynchronization of ensembles with non-stationary, time-varying parameters. We perform the stability analysis of the feedback-controlled system and demonstrate efficient destruction of synchrony for several models, including those of spiking and bursting neurons.

Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alan G.; Weygandt, Stephen S.; Schwartz, Barry; Murphy, James R.

2009-01-01

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty.

Entanglement of 3000 atoms by detecting one photon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuletic, Vladan

2016-05-01

Quantum-mechanically correlated (entangled) states of many particles are of interest in quantum information, quantum computing and quantum metrology. In particular, entangled states of many particles can be used to overcome limits on measurements performed with ensembles of independent atoms (standard quantum limit). Metrologically useful entangled states of large atomic ensembles (spin squeezed states) have been experimentally realized. These states display Gaussian spin distribution functions with a non-negative Wigner quasiprobability distribution function. We report the generation of entanglement in a large atomic ensemble via an interaction with a very weak laser pulse; remarkably, the detection of a single photon prepares several thousand atoms in an entangled state. We reconstruct a negative-valued Wigner function, and verify an entanglement depth (the minimum number of mutually entangled atoms) that comprises 90% of the atomic ensemble containing 3100 atoms. Further technical improvement should allow the generation of more complex Schrödinger cat states, and of states the overcome the standard quantum limit.

Fast and slow transitions in frontal ensemble activity during flexible sensorimotor behavior.

PubMed

Siniscalchi, Michael J; Phoumthipphavong, Victoria; Ali, Farhan; Lozano, Marc; Kwan, Alex C

2016-09-01

The ability to shift between repetitive and goal-directed actions is a hallmark of cognitive control. Previous studies have reported that adaptive shifts in behavior are accompanied by changes of neural activity in frontal cortex. However, neural and behavioral adaptations can occur at multiple time scales, and their relationship remains poorly defined. Here we developed an adaptive sensorimotor decision-making task for head-fixed mice, requiring them to shift flexibly between multiple auditory-motor mappings. Two-photon calcium imaging of secondary motor cortex (M2) revealed different ensemble activity states for each mapping. When adapting to a conditional mapping, transitions in ensemble activity were abrupt and occurred before the recovery of behavioral performance. By contrast, gradual and delayed transitions accompanied shifts toward repetitive responding. These results demonstrate distinct ensemble signatures associated with the start versus end of sensory-guided behavior and suggest that M2 leads in engaging goal-directed response strategies that require sensorimotor associations.

Ensemble Classifiers for Predicting HIV-1 Resistance from Three Rule-Based Genotypic Resistance Interpretation Systems.

PubMed

Raposo, Letícia M; Nobre, Flavio F

2017-08-30

Resistance to antiretrovirals (ARVs) is a major problem faced by HIV-infected individuals. Different rule-based algorithms were developed to infer HIV-1 susceptibility to antiretrovirals from genotypic data. However, there is discordance between them, resulting in difficulties for clinical decisions about which treatment to use. Here, we developed ensemble classifiers integrating three interpretation algorithms: Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA (ANRS), Rega, and the genotypic resistance interpretation system from Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVdb). Three approaches were applied to develop a classifier with a single resistance profile: stacked generalization, a simple plurality vote scheme and the selection of the interpretation system with the best performance. The strategies were compared with the Friedman's test and the performance of the classifiers was evaluated using the F-measure, sensitivity and specificity values. We found that the three strategies had similar performances for the selected antiretrovirals. For some cases, the stacking technique with naïve Bayes as the learning algorithm showed a statistically superior F-measure. This study demonstrates that ensemble classifiers can be an alternative tool for clinical decision-making since they provide a single resistance profile from the most commonly used resistance interpretation systems.

Comparison of Thermal Manikin Modeling and Human Subjects' Response During Use of Cooling Devices Under Personal Protective Ensembles in the Heat.

PubMed

Quinn, Tyler; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Seo, Yongsuk; Coca, Aitor

2018-06-01

IntroductionPersonal protective equipment (PPE) recommended for use in West Africa during the Ebola outbreak increased risk for heat illness, and countermeasures addressing this issue would be valuable.Hypothesis/ProblemThe purpose of this study was to examine the physiological impact and heat perception of four different personal cooling devices (PCDs) under impermeable PPE during low-intensity exercise in a hot and humid environment using thermal manikin modeling and human testing. Six healthy male subjects walked on a treadmill in a hot/humid environment (32°C/92% relative humidity [RH]) at three metabolic equivalents (METs) for 60 minutes wearing PPE recommended for use in West Africa and one of four different personal cooling devices (PCDs; PCD1, PCD2, PCD3, and PCD4) or no PCD for control (CON). The same ensembles were tested with thermal manikin modeling software in the same conditions to compare the results. All PCDs seemed to reduce physiological heat stress characteristics when worn under PPE compared to CON. Both the manikin and human testing provided similar results in core temperature (Tc) and heat sensation (HS) in both magnitude and relationship. While the manikin and human data provided similar skin temperature (Tsk) characterization, Tsk estimation by the manikin seemed to be slightly over-estimated. Weight loss, as estimated by the manikin, was under-estimated compared to the human measurement. Personal cooling device use in conjunction with impermeable PPE may be advantageous in mitigating physiological and perceptual burdens of heat stress. Evaluation of PCDs worn under PPE can be done effectively via human or manikin testing; however, Tsk may be over-estimated and weight loss may be under-estimated. Thermal manikin testing of PCDs may provide fast and accurate information to persons recommending or using PCDs with PPE. QuinnT, KimJH, SeoY, CocaA. Comparison of thermal manikin modeling and human subjects' response during use of cooling devices under personal protective ensembles in the heat. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(3):279-287.

The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, M. Leila; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell

2018-02-01

The drag-based model for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model that can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), that covers ensemble modeling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds. Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties, and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is ME = ‑9.7 hr, mean absolute error MAE = 14.3 hr, and root mean square error RMSE = 16.7 hr, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (ME = ‑6.1 hr, MAE = 12.8 hr and RMSE = 14.4 hr). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most likely owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.; Walko, R. L.

2006-03-01

This paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required.

Is he playing solo or within an ensemble? How the context, visual information, and expertise may impact upon the perception of musical expressivity.

PubMed

Glowinski, Donald; Riolfo, Arianna; Shirole, Kanika; Torres-Eliard, Kim; Chiorri, Carlo; Grandjean, Didier

2014-01-01

Visual information is imperative when developing a concrete and context-sensitive understanding of how music performance is perceived. Recent studies highlight natural, automatic, and nonconscious dependence on visual cues that ultimately refer to body expressions observed in the musician. The current study investigated how the social context of a performing musician (eg playing alone or within an ensemble) and the musical expertise of the perceivers influence the strategies used to understand and decode the visual features of music performance. Results revealed that both perceiver groups, nonmusicians and musicians, have a higher sensitivity towards gaze information; therefore, an impoverished stimulus such as a point-light display is insufficient to understand the social context in which the musician is performing. Implications for these findings are discussed.

Constraining the ensemble Kalman filter for improved streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Deborah H.; Jackson, Bethanna M.; McGregor, James

2018-05-01

Data assimilation techniques such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are often applied to hydrological models with minimal state volume/capacity constraints enforced during ensemble generation. Flux constraints are rarely, if ever, applied. Consequently, model states can be adjusted beyond physically reasonable limits, compromising the integrity of model output. In this paper, we investigate the effect of constraining the EnKF on forecast performance. A "free run" in which no assimilation is applied is compared to a completely unconstrained EnKF implementation, a 'typical' hydrological implementation (in which mass constraints are enforced to ensure non-negativity and capacity thresholds of model states are not exceeded), and then to a more tightly constrained implementation where flux as well as mass constraints are imposed to force the rate of water movement to/from ensemble states to be within physically consistent boundaries. A three year period (2008-2010) was selected from the available data record (1976-2010). This was specifically chosen as it had no significant data gaps and represented well the range of flows observed in the longer dataset. Over this period, the standard implementation of the EnKF (no constraints) contained eight hydrological events where (multiple) physically inconsistent state adjustments were made. All were selected for analysis. Mass constraints alone did little to improve forecast performance; in fact, several were significantly degraded compared to the free run. In contrast, the combined use of mass and flux constraints significantly improved forecast performance in six events relative to all other implementations, while the remaining two events showed no significant difference in performance. Placing flux as well as mass constraints on the data assimilation framework encourages physically consistent state estimation and results in more accurate and reliable forward predictions of streamflow for robust decision-making. We also experiment with the observation error, which has a profound effect on filter performance. We note an interesting tension exists between specifying an error which reflects known uncertainties and errors in the measurement versus an error that allows "optimal" filter updating.

Least Reliable Bits Coding (LRBC) for high data rate satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanderaar, Mark; Wagner, Paul; Budinger, James

1992-01-01

An analysis and discussion of a bandwidth efficient multi-level/multi-stage block coded modulation technique called Least Reliable Bits Coding (LRBC) is presented. LRBC uses simple multi-level component codes that provide increased error protection on increasingly unreliable modulated bits in order to maintain an overall high code rate that increases spectral efficiency. Further, soft-decision multi-stage decoding is used to make decisions on unprotected bits through corrections made on more protected bits. Using analytical expressions and tight performance bounds it is shown that LRBC can achieve increased spectral efficiency and maintain equivalent or better power efficiency compared to that of Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK). Bit error rates (BER) vs. channel bit energy with Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) are given for a set of LRB Reed-Solomon (RS) encoded 8PSK modulation formats with an ensemble rate of 8/9. All formats exhibit a spectral efficiency of 2.67 = (log2(8))(8/9) information bps/Hz. Bit by bit coded and uncoded error probabilities with soft-decision information are determined. These are traded with with code rate to determine parameters that achieve good performance. The relative simplicity of Galois field algebra vs. the Viterbi algorithm and the availability of high speed commercial Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) for block codes indicates that LRBC using block codes is a desirable method for high data rate implementations.

REVEL: An Ensemble Method for Predicting the Pathogenicity of Rare Missense Variants.

PubMed

Ioannidis, Nilah M; Rothstein, Joseph H; Pejaver, Vikas; Middha, Sumit; McDonnell, Shannon K; Baheti, Saurabh; Musolf, Anthony; Li, Qing; Holzinger, Emily; Karyadi, Danielle; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A; Teerlink, Craig C; Stanford, Janet L; Isaacs, William B; Xu, Jianfeng; Cooney, Kathleen A; Lange, Ethan M; Schleutker, Johanna; Carpten, John D; Powell, Isaac J; Cussenot, Olivier; Cancel-Tassin, Geraldine; Giles, Graham G; MacInnis, Robert J; Maier, Christiane; Hsieh, Chih-Lin; Wiklund, Fredrik; Catalona, William J; Foulkes, William D; Mandal, Diptasri; Eeles, Rosalind A; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Bustamante, Carlos D; Schaid, Daniel J; Hastie, Trevor; Ostrander, Elaine A; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Radivojac, Predrag; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Whittemore, Alice S; Sieh, Weiva

2016-10-06

The vast majority of coding variants are rare, and assessment of the contribution of rare variants to complex traits is hampered by low statistical power and limited functional data. Improved methods for predicting the pathogenicity of rare coding variants are needed to facilitate the discovery of disease variants from exome sequencing studies. We developed REVEL (rare exome variant ensemble learner), an ensemble method for predicting the pathogenicity of missense variants on the basis of individual tools: MutPred, FATHMM, VEST, PolyPhen, SIFT, PROVEAN, MutationAssessor, MutationTaster, LRT, GERP, SiPhy, phyloP, and phastCons. REVEL was trained with recently discovered pathogenic and rare neutral missense variants, excluding those previously used to train its constituent tools. When applied to two independent test sets, REVEL had the best overall performance (p < 10 -12 ) as compared to any individual tool and seven ensemble methods: MetaSVM, MetaLR, KGGSeq, Condel, CADD, DANN, and Eigen. Importantly, REVEL also had the best performance for distinguishing pathogenic from rare neutral variants with allele frequencies <0.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for REVEL was 0.046-0.182 higher in an independent test set of 935 recent SwissVar disease variants and 123,935 putatively neutral exome sequencing variants and 0.027-0.143 higher in an independent test set of 1,953 pathogenic and 2,406 benign variants recently reported in ClinVar than the AUCs for other ensemble methods. We provide pre-computed REVEL scores for all possible human missense variants to facilitate the identification of pathogenic variants in the sea of rare variants discovered as sequencing studies expand in scale. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Human Genetics. All rights reserved.

Mobius domain-wall fermions on gradient-flowed dynamical HISQ ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berkowitz, Evan; Bouchard, Chris; Chang, Chia Cheng

Here, we report on salient features of a mixed lattice QCD action using valence M\\"{o}bius domain-wall fermions solved on the dynamicalmore » $$N_f=2+1+1$$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration. The approximate chiral symmetry properties of the valence fermions are shown to be significantly improved by utilizing the gradient-flow scheme to first smear the HISQ configurations. The greater numerical cost of the M\\"{o}bius domain-wall inversions is mitigated by the highly efficient QUDA library optimized for NVIDIA GPU accelerated compute nodes. We have created an interface to this optimized QUDA solver in Chroma. We provide tuned parameters of the action and performance of QUDA using ensembles with the lattice spacings $$a \\simeq \\{0.15, 0.12, 0.09\\}$$ fm and pion masses $$m_\\pi \\simeq \\{310, 220,130\\}$$ MeV. We have additionally generated two new ensembles with $$a\\sim0.12$$ fm and $$m_\\pi\\sim\\{400, 350\\}$$ MeV. With a fixed flow-time of $$t_{gf}=1$$ in lattice units, the residual chiral symmetry breaking of the valence fermions is kept below 10\\% of the light quark mass on all ensembles, $$m_{res} \\lesssim 0.1\\times m_l$$, with moderate values of the fifth dimension $$L_5$$ and a domain-wall height $$M_5 \\leq 1.3$$. As a benchmark calculation, we perform a continuum, infinite volume, physical pion and kaon mass extrapolation of $$F_{K^\\pm}/F_{\\pi^\\pm}$$ and demonstrate our results are independent of flow-time, and consistent with the FLAG determination of this quantity at the level of less than one standard deviation.« less

Population interactions between parietal and primary motor cortices during reach

PubMed Central

Rao, Naveen G.; Bondy, Adrian; Truccolo, Wilson; Donoghue, John P.

2014-01-01

Neural interactions between parietal area 2/5 and primary motor cortex (M1) were examined to determine the timing and behavioral correlates of cortico-cortical interactions. Neural activity in areas 2/5 and M1 was simultaneously recorded with 96-channel microelectrode arrays in three rhesus monkeys performing a center-out reach task. We introduce a new method to reveal parietal-motor interactions at a population level using partial spike-field coherence (PSFC) between ensembles of neurons in one area and a local field potential (LFP) in another. PSFC reflects the extent of phase locking between spike times and LFP, after removing the coherence between LFPs in the two areas. Spectral analysis of M1 LFP revealed three bands: low, medium, and high, differing in power between movement preparation and performance. We focus on PSFC in the 1–10 Hz band, in which coherence was strongest. PSFC was also present in the 10–40 Hz band during movement preparation in many channels but generally nonsignificant in the 60–200 Hz band. Ensemble PSFC revealed stronger interactions than single cell-LFP pairings. PSFC of area 2/5 ensembles with M1 LFP typically rose around movement onset and peaked ∼500 ms afterward. PSFC was typically stronger for subsets of area 2/5 neurons and M1 LFPs with similar directional bias than for those with opposite bias, indicating that area 2/5 contributes movement direction information. Together with linear prediction of M1 LFP by area 2/5 spiking, the ensemble-LFP pairing approach reveals interactions missed by single neuron-LFP pairing, demonstrating that cortico-cortical communication can be more readily observed at the ensemble level. PMID:25210154

Mobius domain-wall fermions on gradient-flowed dynamical HISQ ensembles

DOE PAGES

Berkowitz, Evan; Bouchard, Chris; Chang, Chia Cheng; ...

2017-09-25

Here, we report on salient features of a mixed lattice QCD action using valence M\\"{o}bius domain-wall fermions solved on the dynamicalmore » $$N_f=2+1+1$$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC Collaboration. The approximate chiral symmetry properties of the valence fermions are shown to be significantly improved by utilizing the gradient-flow scheme to first smear the HISQ configurations. The greater numerical cost of the M\\"{o}bius domain-wall inversions is mitigated by the highly efficient QUDA library optimized for NVIDIA GPU accelerated compute nodes. We have created an interface to this optimized QUDA solver in Chroma. We provide tuned parameters of the action and performance of QUDA using ensembles with the lattice spacings $$a \\simeq \\{0.15, 0.12, 0.09\\}$$ fm and pion masses $$m_\\pi \\simeq \\{310, 220,130\\}$$ MeV. We have additionally generated two new ensembles with $$a\\sim0.12$$ fm and $$m_\\pi\\sim\\{400, 350\\}$$ MeV. With a fixed flow-time of $$t_{gf}=1$$ in lattice units, the residual chiral symmetry breaking of the valence fermions is kept below 10\\% of the light quark mass on all ensembles, $$m_{res} \\lesssim 0.1\\times m_l$$, with moderate values of the fifth dimension $$L_5$$ and a domain-wall height $$M_5 \\leq 1.3$$. As a benchmark calculation, we perform a continuum, infinite volume, physical pion and kaon mass extrapolation of $$F_{K^\\pm}/F_{\\pi^\\pm}$$ and demonstrate our results are independent of flow-time, and consistent with the FLAG determination of this quantity at the level of less than one standard deviation.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin Jiasen; Yu Changshui; Song Heshan

We propose a scheme for identifying an unknown Bell diagonal state. In our scheme the measurements are performed on the probe qubits instead of the Bell diagonal state. The distinct advantage is that the quantum state of the evolved Bell diagonal state ensemble plus probe states will still collapse on the original Bell diagonal state ensemble after the measurement on probe states; i.e., our identification is quantum state nondestructive. How to realize our scheme in the framework of cavity electrodynamics is also shown.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

2018-01-01

In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction

PubMed Central

Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J.; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M.; Guven, Erhan

2018-01-01

Background In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Methods Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Principal findings Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. Conclusions The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru. PMID:29298320

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Creating "Intelligent" Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Noel; Taylor, Patrick

2014-05-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is used to add value to individual model projections and construct a consensus projection. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, individual models reproduce certain climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. The intention is to produce improved ("intelligent") unequal-weight ensemble averages. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Several climate process metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument in combination with surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing the equal-weighted ensemble average and an ensemble weighted using the process-based metric. Additionally, this study investigates the dependence of the metric weighting scheme on the climate state using a combination of model simulations including a non-forced preindustrial control experiment, historical simulations, and several radiative forcing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to advise better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Relative effects of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing on a regional hydrological ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib; Siddique, Ridwan; Reed, Seann; Ahnert, Peter; Mendoza, Pablo; Mejia, Alfonso

2018-03-01

The relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to medium-range forecast lead times (day 1-7) are investigated. For this purpose, a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS) is developed and implemented. The RHEPS is comprised of the following components: (i) hydrometeorological observations (multisensor precipitation estimates, gridded surface temperature, and gauged streamflow); (ii) weather ensemble forecasts (precipitation and near-surface temperature) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11-member Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2); (iii) NOAA's Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM); (iv) heteroscedastic censored logistic regression (HCLR) as the statistical preprocessor; (v) two statistical postprocessors, an autoregressive model with a single exogenous variable (ARX(1,1)) and quantile regression (QR); and (vi) a comprehensive verification strategy. To implement the RHEPS, 1 to 7 days weather forecasts from the GEFSRv2 are used to force HL-RDHM and generate raw ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasting experiments are conducted in four nested basins in the US Middle Atlantic region, ranging in size from 381 to 12 362 km2. Results show that the HCLR preprocessed ensemble precipitation forecasts have greater skill than the raw forecasts. These improvements are more noticeable in the warm season at the longer lead times (> 3 days). Both postprocessors, ARX(1,1) and QR, show gains in skill relative to the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts, particularly in the cool season, but QR outperforms ARX(1,1). The scenarios that implement preprocessing and postprocessing separately tend to perform similarly, although the postprocessing-alone scenario is often more effective. The scenario involving both preprocessing and postprocessing consistently outperforms the other scenarios. In some cases, however, the differences between this scenario and the scenario with postprocessing alone are not as significant. We conclude that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a competitive alternative.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

PubMed

Ehrhardt, Fiona; Soussana, Jean-François; Bellocchi, Gianni; Grace, Peter; McAuliffe, Russel; Recous, Sylvie; Sándor, Renáta; Smith, Pete; Snow, Val; de Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano; Basso, Bruno; Bhatia, Arti; Brilli, Lorenzo; Doltra, Jordi; Dorich, Christopher D; Doro, Luca; Fitton, Nuala; Giacomini, Sandro J; Grant, Brian; Harrison, Matthew T; Jones, Stephanie K; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Klumpp, Katja; Laville, Patricia; Léonard, Joël; Liebig, Mark; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Massad, Raia S; Meier, Elizabeth; Merbold, Lutz; Moore, Andrew D; Myrgiotis, Vasileios; Newton, Paul; Pattey, Elizabeth; Rolinski, Susanne; Sharp, Joanna; Smith, Ward N; Wu, Lianhai; Zhang, Qing

2018-02-01

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N 2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N 2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N 2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N 2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N 2 O emissions (N 2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N 2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

2008-01-01

Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

An ensemble predictive modeling framework for breast cancer classification.

PubMed

Nagarajan, Radhakrishnan; Upreti, Meenakshi

2017-12-01

Molecular changes often precede clinical presentation of diseases and can be useful surrogates with potential to assist in informed clinical decision making. Recent studies have demonstrated the usefulness of modeling approaches such as classification that can predict the clinical outcomes from molecular expression profiles. While useful, a majority of these approaches implicitly use all molecular markers as features in the classification process often resulting in sparse high-dimensional projection of the samples often comparable to that of the sample size. In this study, a variant of the recently proposed ensemble classification approach is used for predicting good and poor-prognosis breast cancer samples from their molecular expression profiles. In contrast to traditional single and ensemble classifiers, the proposed approach uses multiple base classifiers with varying feature sets obtained from two-dimensional projection of the samples in conjunction with a majority voting strategy for predicting the class labels. In contrast to our earlier implementation, base classifiers in the ensembles are chosen based on maximal sensitivity and minimal redundancy by choosing only those with low average cosine distance. The resulting ensemble sets are subsequently modeled as undirected graphs. Performance of four different classification algorithms is shown to be better within the proposed ensemble framework in contrast to using them as traditional single classifier systems. Significance of a subset of genes with high-degree centrality in the network abstractions across the poor-prognosis samples is also discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.