A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, Michael

2017-09-01

Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.

Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

2012-10-01

Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Lightning Threat Using WRF Proxy Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objectives: Given that high-resolution WRF forecasts can capture the character of convective outbreaks, we seek to: 1. Create WRF forecasts of LTG threat (1-24 h), based on 2 proxy fields from explicitly simulated convection: - graupel flux near -15 C (captures LTG time variability) - vertically integrated ice (captures LTG threat area). 2. Calibrate each threat to yield accurate quantitative peak flash rate densities. 3. Also evaluate threats for areal coverage, time variability. 4. Blend threats to optimize results. 5. Examine sensitivity to model mesh, microphysics. Methods: 1. Use high-resolution 2-km WRF simulations to prognose convection for a diverse series of selected case studies. 2. Evaluate graupel fluxes; vertically integrated ice (VII). 3. Calibrate WRF LTG proxies using peak total LTG flash rate densities from NALMA; relationships look linear, with regression line passing through origin. 4. Truncate low threat values to make threat areal coverage match NALMA flash extent density obs. 5. Blend proxies to achieve optimal performance 6. Study CAPS 4-km ensembles to evaluate sensitivities.

The Power of the Spectrum: Combining Numerical Proxy System Models with Analytical Error Spectra to Better Understand Timescale Dependent Proxy Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolman, A. M.; Laepple, T.; Kunz, T.

2017-12-01

Understanding the uncertainties associated with proxy-based reconstructions of past climate is critical if they are to be used to validate climate models and contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the climate system. Here we present two related and complementary approaches to quantifying proxy uncertainty. The proxy forward model (PFM) "sedproxy" bitbucket.org/ecus/sedproxy numerically simulates the creation, archiving and observation of marine sediment archived proxies such as Mg/Ca in foraminiferal shells and the alkenone unsaturation index UK'37. It includes the effects of bioturbation, bias due to seasonality in the rate of proxy creation, aliasing of the seasonal temperature cycle into lower frequencies, and error due to cleaning, processing and measurement of samples. Numerical PFMs have the advantage of being very flexible, allowing many processes to be modelled and assessed for their importance. However, as more and more proxy-climate data become available, their use in advanced data products necessitates rapid estimates of uncertainties for both the raw reconstructions, and their smoothed/derived products, where individual measurements have been aggregated to coarser time scales or time-slices. To address this, we derive closed-form expressions for power spectral density of the various error sources. The power spectra describe both the magnitude and autocorrelation structure of the error, allowing timescale dependent proxy uncertainty to be estimated from a small number of parameters describing the nature of the proxy, and some simple assumptions about the variance of the true climate signal. We demonstrate and compare both approaches for time-series of the last millennia, Holocene, and the deglaciation. While the numerical forward model can create pseudoproxy records driven by climate model simulations, the analytical model of proxy error allows for a comprehensive exploration of parameter space and mapping of climate signal re-constructability, conditional on the climate and sampling conditions.

Homogenization of long instrumental temperature and precipitation series over the Spanish Northern Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigro, J.; Brunet, M.; Aguilar, E.; Stoll, H.; Jimenez, M.

2009-04-01

The Spanish-funded research project Rapid Climate Changes in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) Based on Proxy Calibration, Long Term Instrumental Series and High Resolution Analyses of Terrestrial and Marine Records (CALIBRE: ref. CGL2006-13327-C04/CLI) has as main objective to analyse climate dynamics during periods of rapid climate change by means of developing high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records from marine and terrestrial (lakes and caves) deposits over the IP and calibrating them with long-term and high-quality instrumental climate time series. Under CALIBRE, the coordinated project Developing and Enhancing a Climate Instrumental Dataset for Calibrating Climate Proxy Data and Analysing Low-Frequency Climate Variability over the Iberian Peninsula (CLICAL: CGL2006-13327-C04-03/CLI) is devoted to the development of homogenised climate records and sub-regional time series which can be confidently used in the calibration of the lacustrine, marine and speleothem time series generated under CALIBRE. Here we present the procedures followed in order to homogenise a dataset of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data on a monthly basis over the Spanish northern coast. The dataset is composed of thirty (twenty) precipitation (temperature) long monthly records. The data are quality controlled following the procedures recommended by Aguilar et al. (2003) and tested for homogeneity and adjusted by following the approach adopted by Brunet et al. (2008). Sub-regional time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1853-2007 have been generated by averaging monthly anomalies and then adding back the base-period mean, according to the method of Jones and Hulme (1996). Also, a method to adjust the variance bias present in regional time series associated over time with varying sample size has been applied (Osborn et al., 1997). The results of this homogenisation exercise and the development of the associated sub-regional time series will be widely discussed. Initial comparisons with rapidly growing speleothems in two different caves indicate that speleothem trace element ratios like Ba/Ca are recording the decrease in littoral precipitation in the last several decades. References Aguilar, E., Auer, I., Brunet, M., Peterson, T. C. and Weringa, J. 2003. Guidelines on Climate Metadata and Homogenization, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-TD no. 1186 / World Climate Data and Monitoring Program (WCDMP) no. 53, Geneva: 51 pp. Brunet M, Saladié O, Jones P, Sigró J, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Lister D, Walther A, Almarza C. 2008. A case-study/guidance on the development of long-term daily adjusted temperature datasets, WMO-TD-1425/WCDMP-66, Geneva: 43 pp. Jones, P D, and Hulme M, 1996, Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 361- 377. Osborn, T. J., Briffa K. R., and Jones P. D., 1997, Adjusting variance for sample-size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean time series, Dendrochronologia, 15, 89- 99.

Cycles in oceanic teleconnections and global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seip, Knut L.; Grøn, Øyvind

2018-06-01

Three large ocean currents are represented by proxy time series: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We here show how proxies for the currents interact with each other and with the global temperature anomaly (GTA). Our results are obtained by a novel method, which identifies running average leading-lagging (LL) relations, between paired series. We find common cycle times for a paired series of 6-7 and 25-28 years and identify years when the LL relations switch. Switching occurs with 18.4 ± 14.3-year intervals for the short 6-7-year cycles and with 27 ± 15-year intervals for the 25-28-year cycles. During the period 1940-1950, the LL relations for the long cycles were circular (nomenclature x leads y: x → y): GTA → NAO → SOI → PDO → GTA. However, after 1960, the LL relations become more complex and there are indications that GTA leads to both NAO and PDO. The switching years are related to ocean current tie points and reversals reported in the literature.

Tracking variable sedimentation rates in orbitally forced paleoclimate proxy series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Kump, L. R.; Hinnov, L.

2017-12-01

This study addresses two fundamental issues in cyclostratigraphy: quantitative testing of orbital forcing in cyclic sedimentary sequences and tracking variable sedimentation rates. The methodology proposed here addresses these issues as an inverse problem, and estimates the product-moment correlation coefficient between the frequency spectra of orbital solutions and paleoclimate proxy series over a range of "test" sedimentation rates. It is inspired by the ASM method (1). The number of orbital parameters involved in the estimation is also considered. The method relies on the hypothesis that orbital forcing had a significant impact on the paleoclimate proxy variations, and thus is also tested. The null hypothesis of no astronomical forcing is evaluated using the Beta distribution, for which the shape parameters are estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. We introduce a metric to estimate the most likely sedimentation rate using the product-moment correlation coefficient, H0 significance level, and the number of contributing orbital parameters, i.e., the CHO value. The CHO metric is applied with a sliding window to track variable sedimentation rates along the paleoclimate proxy series. Two forward models with uniform and variable sedimentation rates are evaluated to demonstrate the robustness of the method. The CHO method is applied to the classical Late Triassic Newark depth rank series; the estimated sedimentation rates match closely with previously published sedimentation rates and provide a more highly time-resolved estimate (2,3). References: (1) Meyers, S.R., Sageman, B.B., Amer. J. Sci., 307, 773-792, 2007; (2) Kent, D.V., Olsen, P.E., Muttoni, G., Earth-Sci. Rev.166, 153-180, 2017; (3) Li, M., Zhang, Y., Huang, C., Ogg, J., Hinnov, L., Wang, Y., Zou, Z., Li, L., 2017. Earth Plant. Sc. Lett. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.015

A Fifty-Year Coral Sr/Ca Time Series from Guam, Mariana Islands: In situ Monitoring and Comparison to Observed Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lander, M.

2016-12-01

Located on the northern edge of the West Pacific Warm Pool, Guam is positioned to obtain uniquely valuable natural records of west Pacific maritime paleoclimate. This study is the first to evaluate the application of the coral Sr/Ca sea surface temperature (SST) proxy to the reconstruction of Guam's climate history. To help test the fidelity of the coral Sr/Ca proxy to actual climate, and how it might be affected by environmental variables—on Guam or elsewhere—the study documented monthly seawater oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O), pH, cation, and nitrate concentrations from September 2009 to December 2010 at a Porites lutea colony in Guam's Apra Harbor. The study site was chosen for its accessibility, so that environmental conditions could be readily monitored. A 50-year Sr/Ca record was carefully compared to instrumental records, the quality and reliability of which were also closely examined. Time series of seawater δ18O, pH, and cation concentrations show some evidence of freshwater input from direct rainfall or stream discharge into the harbor. The Sr/Ca proxy SST results, however, are robust, and do not appear to have been significantly affected. The Sr/Ca proxy reproduces the long-term warming trend observed in the historical records of regional SST and local air temperature. Moreover, it shows remarkable fidelity to regional ocean-atmosphere variations as represented by the indices of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The consistency of the results with Guam's historical instrumental records, with previous δ18O results from Guam, and with previous Sr/Ca proxy results in similar environments elsewhere, demonstrate the efficacy of accessible near-shore sites for obtaining reliable Sr/Ca climate proxies, and the utility of Guam as a source for accurate coral records of western Pacific Ocean regional climate.

Understanding north-western Mediterranean climate variability: a multi-proxy and multi-sequence approach based on wavelet analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuara, Julien; Lebreton, Vincent; Jalali, Bassem; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sabatier, Pierre; Dezileau, Laurent; Peyron, Odile; Frigola, Jaime; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

2017-04-01

Forcings and physical mechanisms underlying Holocene climate variability still remain poorly understood. Comparison of different paleoclimatic reconstructions using spectral analysis allows to investigate their common periodicities and helps to understand the causes of past climate changes. Wavelet analysis applied on several proxy time series from the Atlantic domain already revealed the first key-issues on the origin of Holocene climate variability. However the differences in duration, resolution and variance between the time-series are important issues for comparing paleoclimatic sequences in the frequency domain. This work compiles 7 paleoclimatic proxy records from 4 time-series from the north-western Mediterranean all ranging from 7000 to 1000 yrs cal BP: -pollen and clay mineral contents from the lagoonal sediment core PB06 recovered in southern France, -Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) derived from alkenones, concentration of terrestrial alkanes and their average chain length (ACL) from core KSGC-31_GolHo-1B recovered in the Gulf of Lion inner-shelf, - δ18O record from speleothems recovered in the Asiul Cave in north-western Spain, -grain size record from the deep basin sediment drift core MD99-2343 north of Minorca island. A comparison of their frequency content is proposed using wavelet analysis and cluster analysis of wavelet power spectra. Common cyclicities are assessed using cross-wavelet analysis. In addition, a new algorithm is used in order to propagate the age model errors within wavelet power spectra. Results are consistents with a non-stationnary Holocene climate variability. The Halstatt cycles (2000-2500 years) depicted in many proxies (ACL, errestrial alkanes and SSTs) demonstrate solar activity influence in the north-western Mediterranean climate. Cluster analysis shows that pollen and ACL proxies, both indicating changes in aridity, are clearly distinct from other proxies and share significant common periodicities around 1000 and 600 years, since the mid-Holocene. The 1000 years period is also evidenced in terrestrial alkanes and Minorca sediment drift grain size, which respectively indicate changes in the Rhône hydrology and changes in the north-western Mediterranean deep water formation. These findings suggests that an original climate driver influences the Gulf of Lion area. Finally, both clay mineral content from PB06, indicative of past storminess and δ18O record from the north western Iberia, related to precipitations, record the well known 1500 years period since the middle Holocene. The presence of this period, widely encountered in the Atlantic, highlights the link between the north-western Mediterranean and the Atlantic climate variability.

Method of frequency dependent correlations: investigating the variability of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelt, J.; Käpylä, M. J.; Olspert, N.

2017-04-01

Context. This paper contributes to the field of modeling and hindcasting of the total solar irradiance (TSI) based on different proxy data that extend further back in time than the TSI that is measured from satellites. Aims: We introduce a simple method to analyze persistent frequency-dependent correlations (FDCs) between the time series and use these correlations to hindcast missing historical TSI values. We try to avoid arbitrary choices of the free parameters of the model by computing them using an optimization procedure. The method can be regarded as a general tool for pairs of data sets, where correlating and anticorrelating components can be separated into non-overlapping regions in frequency domain. Methods: Our method is based on low-pass and band-pass filtering with a Gaussian transfer function combined with de-trending and computation of envelope curves. Results: We find a major controversy between the historical proxies and satellite-measured targets: a large variance is detected between the low-frequency parts of targets, while the low-frequency proxy behavior of different measurement series is consistent with high precision. We also show that even though the rotational signal is not strongly manifested in the targets and proxies, it becomes clearly visible in FDC spectrum. A significant part of the variability can be explained by a very simple model consisting of two components: the original proxy describing blanketing by sunspots, and the low-pass-filtered curve describing the overall activity level. The models with the full library of the different building blocks can be applied to hindcasting with a high level of confidence, Rc ≈ 0.90. The usefulness of these models is limited by the major target controversy. Conclusions: The application of the new method to solar data allows us to obtain important insights into the different TSI modeling procedures and their capabilities for hindcasting based on the directly observed time intervals.

Implemented Lomb-Scargle periodogram: a valuable tool for improving cyclostratigraphic research on unevenly sampled deep-sea stratigraphic sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.

2011-12-01

One important handicap when working with stratigraphic sequences is the discontinuous character of the sedimentary record, especially relevant in cyclostratigraphic analysis. Uneven palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic time series are common, their cyclostratigraphic analysis being comparatively difficult because most spectral methodologies are appropriate only when working with even sampling. As a means to solve this problem, a program for calculating the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram and cross-periodogram, which additionally evaluates the statistical confidence of the estimated power spectrum through a Monte Carlo procedure (the permutation test), has been developed. The spectral analysis of a short uneven time series calls for assessment of the statistical significance of the spectral peaks, since a periodogram can always be calculated but the main challenge resides in identifying true spectral features. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this program, two case studies are presented: the one deals with synthetic data and the other with paleoceanographic/palaeoclimatic proxies. On a simulated time series of 500 data, two uneven time series (with 100 and 25 data) were generated by selecting data at random. Comparative analysis between the power spectra from the simulated series and from the two uneven time series demonstrates the usefulness of the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram for uneven sequences, making it possible to distinguish between statistically significant and spurious spectral peaks. Fragmentary time series of Cd/Ca ratios and δ18O from core AII107-131 of SPECMAP were analysed as a real case study. The efficiency of the direct and cross Lomb-Scargle periodogram in recognizing Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch signals related to palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic changes is demonstrated. As implemented, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram may be applied to any palaeoclimatic/palaeoceanographic proxies, including those usually recovered from contourites, and it holds special interest in the context of centennial- to millennial-scale climatic changes affecting contouritic currents.

Polar synchronization and the synchronized climatic history of Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jeseung; Reischmann, Elizabeth; Rial, José A.

2014-01-01

Stable isotope proxies from ice cores show subtle differences in the climatic fluctuations of the Arctic and Antarctic, and recent analyses have revealed evidence of polar synchronization at the millennial time scale. At this scale, we analogize the polar climates of the last ice ages to two coupled nonlinear oscillators, which adjust their natural rhythms until they synchronize at a common frequency and constant phase shift. Heat and mass transfers across the intervening ocean and atmosphere make the coupling possible. Here we statistically demonstrate the existence of this phenomenon in polar proxy records with methane-matched age models, and quantify their phase relationship. We show that the time series of representative proxy records of the last glaciation recorded in Greenland (GRIP, NGRIP) and Antarctica (Byrd, Dome C) satisfy phase synchronization conditions, independently of age, for periods ranging 1-6 ky, and can be transformed into one another by a π/2 phase shift, with Antarctica temperature variations leading Greenland's. Based on these results, we use the polar synchronization paradigm to replicate the 800 ky-long, Antarctic, EPICA time series from a theoretical model that extends Greenland's 100 ky-long GRIP record to 800 ky. Statistical analysis of the simulated and actual Antarctic records shows that the procedure is stable to change in adjustable parameters, and requires the coupling between the polar climates to be proportional mainly to the difference in heat storage between the two regions.

ePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Marci M.; Dowsett, Harry J.

2010-01-01

As part of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project, we present the ePRISM experiment designed I) to provide climate modelers with a reconstruction of an early Pliocene warm period that was warmer than the PRISM interval (similar to 3.3 to 3.0 Ma), yet still similar in many ways to modern conditions and 2) to provide an example of how best to integrate multiple-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from time series with varying degrees of temporal resolution and age control as we begin to build the next generation of PRISM, the PRISM4 reconstruction, spanning a constricted time interval. While it is possible to tie individual SST estimates to a single light (warm) oxygen isotope event, we find that the warm peak average of SST estimates over a narrowed time interval is preferential for paleoclimate reconstruction as it allows for the inclusion of more records of multiple paleotemperature proxies.

On the Use of Satellite Altimetry to Detect Ocean Circulation's Magnetic Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saynisch, J.; Irrgang, C.; Thomas, M.

2018-03-01

Oceanic magnetic signals are sensitive to ocean velocity, salinity, and heat content. The detection of respective signals with global satellite magnetometers would pose a very valuable source of information. While tidal magnetic fields are already detected, electromagnetic signals of the ocean circulation still remain unobserved from space. We propose to use satellite altimetry to construct proxy magnetic signals of the ocean circulation. These proxy time series could subsequently be fitted to satellite magnetometer data. The fitted data could be removed from the observations or the fitting constants could be analyzed for physical properties of the ocean, e.g., the heat budget. To test and evaluate this approach, synthetic true and proxy magnetic signals are derived from a global circulation model of the ocean. Both data sets are compared in dependence of location and time scale. We study and report when and where the proxy data describe the true signal sufficiently well. Correlations above 0.6 and explained variances of above 80% can be reported for large parts of the Antarctic ocean, thus explaining the major part of the global, subseasonal magnetic signal.

Representative locations from time series of soil water content using time stability and wavelet analysis.

PubMed

Rivera, Diego; Lillo, Mario; Granda, Stalin

2014-12-01

The concept of time stability has been widely used in the design and assessment of monitoring networks of soil moisture, as well as in hydrological studies, because it is as a technique that allows identifying of particular locations having the property of representing mean values of soil moisture in the field. In this work, we assess the effect of time stability calculations as new information is added and how time stability calculations are affected at shorter periods, subsampled from the original time series, containing different amounts of precipitation. In doing so, we defined two experiments to explore the time stability behavior. The first experiment sequentially adds new data to the previous time series to investigate the long-term influence of new data in the results. The second experiment applies a windowing approach, taking sequential subsamples from the entire time series to investigate the influence of short-term changes associated with the precipitation in each window. Our results from an operating network (seven monitoring points equipped with four sensors each in a 2-ha blueberry field) show that as information is added to the time series, there are changes in the location of the most stable point (MSP), and that taking the moving 21-day windows, it is clear that most of the variability of soil water content changes is associated with both the amount and intensity of rainfall. The changes of the MSP over each window depend on the amount of water entering the soil and the previous state of the soil water content. For our case study, the upper strata are proxies for hourly to daily changes in soil water content, while the deeper strata are proxies for medium-range stored water. Thus, different locations and depths are representative of processes at different time scales. This situation must be taken into account when water management depends on soil water content values from fixed locations.

A new method for reconstruction of solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor

2018-07-01

The purpose of this research is to show how time series should be reconstructed using an example with the data on total solar irradiation (TSI) of the Earth and on sunspot numbers (SSN) since 1749. The traditional approach through regression equation(s) is designed for time-invariant vectors of random variables and is not applicable to time series, which present random functions of time. The autoregressive reconstruction (ARR) method suggested here requires fitting a multivariate stochastic difference equation to the target/proxy time series. The reconstruction is done through the scalar equation for the target time series with the white noise term excluded. The time series approach is shown to provide a better reconstruction of TSI than the correlation/regression method. A reconstruction criterion is introduced which allows one to define in advance the achievable level of success in the reconstruction. The conclusion is that time series, including the total solar irradiance, cannot be reconstructed properly if the data are not treated as sample records of random processes and analyzed in both time and frequency domains.

Cosmogenic 36Cl in karst waters: Quantifying contributions from atmospheric and bedrock sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, V. E.; McDermott, F.

2009-12-01

Improved reconstructions of cosmogenic isotope production through time are crucial to understand past solar variability. As a preliminary step to derive atmospheric 36Cl/Cl solar proxy time-series from speleothems, we quantify 36Cl sources in cave dripwaters. Atmospheric 36Cl fallout rates are a potential proxy for solar output; however extraneous 36Cl derived from in-situ production in cave host-rocks could complicate the solar signal. Results from numerical modeling and preliminary geochemical data presented here show that the atmospheric 36Cl source dominates in many, but not all cave dripwaters. At favorable low elevation, mid-latitude sites, 36Cl based speleothem solar irradiance reconstructions could extend back to 500 ka, with a possible centennial scale temporal resolution. This would represent a marginal improvement in resolution compared with existing polar ice core records, with the added advantages of a wider geographic range, independent U-series constrained chronology, and the potential for contemporaneous climate signals within the same speleothem material.

Appraising timing response of paleoenvironmental proxies to the Bond cycle in the western Mediterranean over the last 20 kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo-Gámiz, Marta; Martínez-Ruiz, Francisca; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Ortega-Huertas, Miguel

2018-04-01

The timing of climate responses to the Bond cycle is investigated in the western Mediterranean. Periodicities had been previously reported in a marine sediment record from this region spanning the last 20 kyr, and registered by diverse paleoenvironmental proxies, in particular those associated with terrigenous input, redox conditions, productivity, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. Further cross-spectral analyses on these time series reveal leads-lags in the 1400 year climate cycle. Considering as reference a terrigenous input proxy (the K/Al ratio), all the paleoenvironmental proxies displayed time shifts varying from ca. 700 year to ca. 350 year. SST and salinity variations show a first leaded response with the inflow of cold and less salty Atlantic waters. Followed by a time lead of 525 year, progresively arid conditions with an increase of eolian dust transport to the area, given by the Zr/Al signal, are observed. The intensification of dust transport could have triggered a latest biological response, lead by 350 year, with an increase of productivity, as suggested by the Ba/Al ratio. Lastly changes in the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, indicated by a selected redox proxy (the U/Th ratio), are observed. These results support that the oceanic response triggered the atmospheric response to the Bond cycle in the western Mediterranean. Changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation mode and in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations with variations in the monsoon activity or Saharan winds system, are considered as main forcing mechanisms, with a complex relationship of the involved phenomena.

NASA Satellite Data for Seagrass Health Modeling and Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spiering, Bruce A.; Underwood, Lauren; Ross, Kenton

2011-01-01

Time series derived information for coastal waters will be used to provide input data for the Fong and Harwell model. The current MODIS land mask limits where the model can be applied; this project will: a) Apply MODIS data with resolution higher than the standard products (250-m vs. 1-km). b) Seek to refine the land mask. c) Explore nearby areas to use as proxies for time series directly over the beds. Novel processing approaches will be leveraged from other NASA projects and customized as inputs for seagrass productivity modeling

From process to proxy: Ecological challenges and opportunities of tree-ring based environmental reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilmking, Martin; Buras, Allan; Heinrich, Ingo; Scharnweber, Tobias; Simard, Sonia; Smiljanic, Marko; van der Maaten, Ernst; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke

2014-05-01

Trees are sessile, long-living organisms and as such constantly need to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Accordingly, they often show high phenotypic plasticity (the ability to change phenotypic traits, such as allocation of resources) in response to environmental change. This high phenotypic plasticity is generally considered as one of the main ingredients for a sessile organism to survive and reach high ages. Precisely because of the ability of trees to reach old age and their in-ability to simply run away when conditions get worse, growth information recorded in tree rings has long been used as a major environmental proxy, covering time scales from decades to millennia. Past environmental conditions (e.g. climate) are recorded in i.e. annual tree-ring width, early- and latewood width, wood density, isotopic concentrations, cell anatomy or wood chemistry. One prerequisite for a reconstruction is that the relationship between the environmental variable influencing tree growth and the tree-growth variable itself is stable through time. This, however, might contrast the ecological theory of high plasticity and the trees ability to adapt to change. To untangle possible mechanisms leading to stable or unstable relationships between tree growth and environmental variables, it is helpful to have exact site information and several proxy variables of each tree-ring series available. Although we gain insight into the environmental history of a sampling site when sampling today, this is extremely difficult when using archeological wood. In this latter case, we face the additional challenge of unknown origin, provenance and (or) site conditions, making it even more important to use multiple proxy time-series from the same sample. Here, we review typical examples, where the relationship between tree growth and environmental variables seems 1) stable and 2) instable through time, and relate these two cases to ecological theory. Based on ecological theory, we then give recommendations to improve the reliability of environmental reconstructions using tree rings.

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE PAGES

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine; ...

2016-09-06

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Transformation-cost time-series method for analyzing irregularly sampled data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozken, Ibrahim; Eroglu, Deniz; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Bagci, G. Baris; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Irregular sampling of data sets is one of the challenges often encountered in time-series analysis, since traditional methods cannot be applied and the frequently used interpolation approach can corrupt the data and bias the subsequence analysis. Here we present the TrAnsformation-Cost Time-Series (TACTS) method, which allows us to analyze irregularly sampled data sets without degenerating the quality of the data set. Instead of using interpolation we consider time-series segments and determine how close they are to each other by determining the cost needed to transform one segment into the following one. Using a limited set of operations—with associated costs—to transform the time series segments, we determine a new time series, that is our transformation-cost time series. This cost time series is regularly sampled and can be analyzed using standard methods. While our main interest is the analysis of paleoclimate data, we develop our method using numerical examples like the logistic map and the Rössler oscillator. The numerical data allows us to test the stability of our method against noise and for different irregular samplings. In addition we provide guidance on how to choose the associated costs based on the time series at hand. The usefulness of the TACTS method is demonstrated using speleothem data from the Secret Cave in Borneo that is a good proxy for paleoclimatic variability in the monsoon activity around the maritime continent.

Transformation-cost time-series method for analyzing irregularly sampled data.

PubMed

Ozken, Ibrahim; Eroglu, Deniz; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Bagci, G Baris; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Irregular sampling of data sets is one of the challenges often encountered in time-series analysis, since traditional methods cannot be applied and the frequently used interpolation approach can corrupt the data and bias the subsequence analysis. Here we present the TrAnsformation-Cost Time-Series (TACTS) method, which allows us to analyze irregularly sampled data sets without degenerating the quality of the data set. Instead of using interpolation we consider time-series segments and determine how close they are to each other by determining the cost needed to transform one segment into the following one. Using a limited set of operations-with associated costs-to transform the time series segments, we determine a new time series, that is our transformation-cost time series. This cost time series is regularly sampled and can be analyzed using standard methods. While our main interest is the analysis of paleoclimate data, we develop our method using numerical examples like the logistic map and the Rössler oscillator. The numerical data allows us to test the stability of our method against noise and for different irregular samplings. In addition we provide guidance on how to choose the associated costs based on the time series at hand. The usefulness of the TACTS method is demonstrated using speleothem data from the Secret Cave in Borneo that is a good proxy for paleoclimatic variability in the monsoon activity around the maritime continent.

A 3000-year annual-resolution record of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, B. F.; Mariethoz, G.; Hellstrom, J.; Baker, A.

2013-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation provides an index of North Atlantic climate variability. The 947-yr long annual resolution record of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) of Trouet et al. (2009, Science, 324, 78-81), the NAO Morocco-Scotland index, combined tree ring and stalagmite data, the latter a single stalagmite growth rate archive from NW Scotland. Trouet et al (2009) noted the unusual persistence of the positive phase of the NAO during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1050-1400AD). In order to better assess the uniqueness of the persistently positive NAO in the MCA, we extend the speleothem portion of the proxy NAO record with a composite of five stalagmites from the same cave system. We present the first-ever composite speleothem growth rate record. Using a combination of lamina counting, U-Th dating, and correlation between growth rate series, we build a continuous, annual-resolution, annually laminated, stalagmite growth rates series for the last 3000 years. We use geostatistical and stochastic approaches appropriate to stalagmite growth rate time series to characterise uncertainty in the stalagmite series and to screen them for periods of relative climate sensitivity vs. periods where there is hydrologically introduced, non-climatic variability. We produce the longest annual-resolution annual lamina record of the NAO for the last 3000 years. The screened stalagmite series is compared to instrumental and proxy records of the NAO. Spectral and wavelet analysis demonstrates that the series contains significant decadal to centennial scale periodicity throughout the record. We demonstrate that the persistently positive NAO during the MCA (1080-1460 CE) is remarkable within the last 3000 years. Two other phases of persistent, positive NAO, occur at 290-550 CE and 660-530 BCE, in agreement with the lower resolution, 5,200-yr Greenland lake sediment NAO proxy (Olsen et al, 2012, Nature Geoscience, 5, 808-812).

Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundberg, R.; Moberg, A.; Hind, A.

2012-08-01

A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations.

Detecting oscillatory patterns and time lags from proxy records with non-uniform sampling: Some pitfalls and possible solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, Reik

2013-04-01

Time series analysis offers a rich toolbox for deciphering information from high-resolution geological and geomorphological archives and linking the thus obtained results to distinct climate and environmental processes. Specifically, on various time-scales from inter-annual to multi-millenial, underlying driving forces exhibit more or less periodic oscillations, the detection of which in proxy records often allows linking them to specific mechanisms by which the corresponding drivers may have affected the archive under study. A persistent problem in geomorphology is that available records do not present a clear signal of the variability of environmental conditions, but exhibit considerable uncertainties of both the measured proxy variables and the associated age model. Particularly, time-scale uncertainty as well as the heterogeneity of sampling in the time domain are source of severe conceptual problems that may lead to false conclusions about the presence or absence of oscillatory patterns and their mutual phasing in different archives. In my presentation, I will discuss how one can cope with non-uniformly sampled proxy records to detect and quantify oscillatory patterns in one or more data sets. For this purpose, correlation analysis is reformulated using kernel estimates which are found superior to classical estimators based on interpolation or Fourier transform techniques. In order to characterize non-stationary or noisy periodicities and their relative phasing between different records, an extension of continuous wavelet transform is utilized. The performance of both methods is illustrated for different case studies. An extension to explicitly considering time-scale uncertainties by means of Bayesian techniques is briefly outlined.

A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.

2004-12-01

Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.

Improving the Depth-Time Fit of Holocene Climate Proxy Measures by Increasing Coherence with a Reference Time-Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahim, K. J.; Cumming, B. F.; Hallett, D. J.; Thomson, D. J.

2007-12-01

An accurate assessment of historical local Holocene data is important in making future climate predictions. Holocene climate is often obtained through proxy measures such as diatoms or pollen using radiocarbon dating. Wiggle Match Dating (WMD) uses an iterative least squares approach to tune a core with a large amount of 14C dates to the 14C calibration curve. This poster will present a new method of tuning a time series with when only a modest number of 14C dates are available. The method presented uses the multitaper spectral estimation, and it specifically makes use of a multitaper spectral coherence tuning technique. Holocene climate reconstructions are often based on a simple depth-time fit such as a linear interpolation, splines, or low order polynomials. Many of these models make use of only a small number of 14C dates, each of which is a point estimate with a significant variance. This technique attempts to tune the 14C dates to a reference series, such as tree rings, varves, or the radiocarbon calibration curve. The amount of 14C in the atmosphere is not constant, and a significant source of variance is solar activity. A decrease in solar activity coincides with an increase in cosmogenic isotope production, and an increase in cosmogenic isotope production coincides with a decrease in temperature. The method presented uses multitaper coherence estimates and adjusts the phase of the time series to line up significant line components with that of the reference series in attempt to obtain a better depth-time fit then the original model. Given recent concerns and demonstrations of the variation in estimated dates from radiocarbon labs, methods to confirm and tune the depth-time fit can aid climate reconstructions by improving and serving to confirm the accuracy of the underlying depth-time fit. Climate reconstructions can then be made on the improved depth-time fit. This poster presents a run though of this process using Chauvin Lake in the Canadian prairies and Mt. Barr Cirque Lake located in British Columbia as examples.

Multi-timescale data assimilation for atmosphere–ocean state estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steiger, Nathan; Hakim, Gregory

2016-06-24

Paleoclimate proxy data span seasonal to millennial timescales, and Earth's climate system has both high- and low-frequency components. Yet it is currently unclear how best to incorporate multiple timescales of proxy data into a single reconstruction framework and to also capture both high- and low-frequency components of reconstructed variables. Here we present a data assimilation approach that can explicitly incorporate proxy data at arbitrary timescales. The principal advantage of using such an approach is that it allows much more proxy data to inform a climate reconstruction, though there can be additional benefits. Through a series of offline data-assimilation-based pseudoproxy experiments,more » we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skillfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple timescales compared to using proxies at short (annual) or long (~ decadal) timescales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long-timescale pseudoproxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution pseudoproxies. We argue that this is because time averaging high-resolution observations improves their covariance relationship with the slowly varying components of the coupled-climate system, which the data assimilation algorithm can exploit. These results are consistent across the climate models considered, despite the model variables having very different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, our results also suggest that it may be possible to reconstruct features of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation based on atmospheric surface temperature proxies, though here we find such reconstructions lack spectral power over a broad range of frequencies.« less

Review of epidemiological studies of drinking-water turbidity in relation to acute gastrointestinal illness

Treesearch

Anneclaire J. De Roos; Patrick L. Gurian; Lucy F. Robinson; Arjita Rai; Issa Zakeri; Michelle C. Kondo

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Turbidity has been used as an indicator of microbiological contamination of drinking water in time-series studies attempting to discern the presence of waterborne gastrointestinal illness; however, the utility of turbidity as a proxy exposure measure has been questioned. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a review of epidemiological studies of the association between...

Dual-Pol X-Band Pol-InSAR Time Series of a Greenland Outlet Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Georg; Hajnsek, Irena

2015-04-01

This study investigates X-band (TanDEM-X) polarimetric and interferometric SAR (Pol-InSAR) data in order to retrieve information about the temporal and spatial variations of surface and subsurface parameters of the Helheim Glacier in south east Greenland. In particular, it will be indicated that the copolar phase difference between HH and VV could be a suitable proxy for snow accumulation, when Pol-InSAR techniques are used to assess the underlying scattering mechanism. By applying a two-phase mixing formula, this approach shows potential to reveal the temporal and spatial snow accumulation patterns in time series of TanDEM-X data.

Preliminary evaluation of the potential of tree-ring cellulose content as a novel supplementary proxy in dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehmer, Malin M.; Nicolussi, Kurt; Schlüchter, Christian; Leuenberger, Markus

2018-02-01

Cellulose content (CC (%)) in tree rings is usually utilised as a tool to control the quality of the α-cellulose extraction from tree rings in the preparation of stable-isotope analysis in wooden tissues. Reported amounts of CC (%) are often limited to mean values per tree. For the first time, CC (%) series from two high-Alpine species, Larix decidua Mill. (European Larch, LADE) and Pinus cembra L. (Swiss stone pine, PICE) are investigated in modern wood samples and Holocene wood remains from the Early and mid-Holocene. Modern CC (%) series reveal a species-specific low-frequency trend independent of their sampling site over the past 150 years. Climate-cellulose relationships illustrate the ability of CC (%) to record temperature in both species but for slightly different periods within the growing season. The Holocene CC (%) series illustrate diverging low-frequency trends in both species, independent of sampling site characteristics (latitude, longitude and elevation). Moreover, potential age trends are not apparent in the two coniferous species. The arithmetic mean of CC (%) series in the Early and mid-Holocene indicate low CC (%) succeeding cold events. In conclusion, CC (%) in tree rings show high potential to be established as novel supplementary proxy in dendroclimatology.

Towards a novel look on low-frequency climate reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamenik, Christian; Goslar, Tomasz; Hicks, Sheila; Barnekow, Lena; Huusko, Antti

2010-05-01

Information on low-frequency (millennial to sub-centennial) climate change is often derived from sedimentary archives, such as peat profiles or lake sediments. Usually, these archives have non-annual and varying time resolution. Their dating is mainly based on radionuclides, which provide probabilistic age-depth relationships with complex error structures. Dating uncertainties impede the interpretation of sediment-based climate reconstructions. They complicate the calculation of time-dependent rates. In most cases, they make any calibration in time impossible. Sediment-based climate proxies are therefore often presented as a single, best-guess time series without proper calibration and error estimation. Errors along time and dating errors that propagate into the calculation of time-dependent rates are neglected. Our objective is to overcome the aforementioned limitations by using a 'swarm' or 'ensemble' of reconstructions instead of a single best-guess. The novelty of our approach is to take into account age-depth uncertainties by permuting through a large number of potential age-depth relationships of the archive of interest. For each individual permutation we can then calculate rates, calibrate proxies in time, and reconstruct the climate-state variable of interest. From the resulting swarm of reconstructions, we can derive realistic estimates of even complex error structures. The likelihood of reconstructions is visualized by a grid of two-dimensional kernels that take into account probabilities along time and the climate-state variable of interest simultaneously. For comparison and regional synthesis, likelihoods can be scored against other independent climate time series.

Mount Logan ice core record of tropical and solar influences on Aleutian Low variability: 500-1998 A.D.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, Erich C.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Fisher, David A.; Kreutz, Karl J.; Maasch, Kirk A.; Sneed, Sharon B.; Kelsey, Eric

2014-10-01

Continuous, high-resolution paleoclimate records from the North Pacific region spanning the past 1500 years are rare; and the behavior of the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure center, the dominant climatological feature in the Gulf of Alaska, remains poorly constrained. Here we present a continuous, 1500 year long, calibrated proxy record for the strength of the wintertime (December-March) ALow from the Mount Logan summit (PR Col; 5200 m asl) ice core soluble sodium time series. We show that ice core sodium concentrations are statistically correlated with North Pacific sea level pressure and zonal wind speed. Our ALow proxy record reveals a weak ALow from circa 900-1300 A.D. and 1575-1675 A.D., and a comparatively stronger ALow from circa 500-900 A.D., 1300-1575 A.D., and 1675 A.D. to present. The Mount Logan ALow proxy record shows strong similarities with tropical paleoclimate proxy records sensitive to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and is consistent with the hypothesis that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was characterized by more persistent La Niña-like conditions while the Little Ice Age was characterized by at least two intervals of more persistent El Niño-like conditions. The Mount Logan ALow proxy record is significantly (p < 0.05) correlated and coherent with solar irradiance proxy records over various time scales, with stronger solar irradiance generally associated with a weaker ALow and La Niña-like tropical conditions. However, a step-like increase in ALow strength during the Dalton solar minimum circa 1820 is associated with enhanced Walker circulation. Furthermore, rising CO2 forcing or internal variability may be masking the twentieth century rise in solar irradiance.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

A complex systems analysis of stick-slip dynamics of a laboratory fault

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, David M.; Tordesillas, Antoinette, E-mail: atordesi@unimelb.edu.au; Small, Michael

2014-03-15

We study the stick-slip behavior of a granular bed of photoelastic disks sheared by a rough slider pulled along the surface. Time series of a proxy for granular friction are examined using complex systems methods to characterize the observed stick-slip dynamics of this laboratory fault. Nonlinear surrogate time series methods show that the stick-slip behavior appears more complex than a periodic dynamics description. Phase space embedding methods show that the dynamics can be locally captured within a four to six dimensional subspace. These slider time series also provide an experimental test for recent complex network methods. Phase space networks, constructedmore » by connecting nearby phase space points, proved useful in capturing the key features of the dynamics. In particular, network communities could be associated to slip events and the ranking of small network subgraphs exhibited a heretofore unreported ordering.« less

Speleothem stable isotope records for east-central Europe: resampling sedimentary proxy records to obtain evenly spaced time series with spectral guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gábor Hatvani, István; Kern, Zoltán; Leél-Őssy, Szabolcs; Demény, Attila

2018-01-01

Uneven spacing is a common feature of sedimentary paleoclimate records, in many cases causing difficulties in the application of classical statistical and time series methods. Although special statistical tools do exist to assess unevenly spaced data directly, the transformation of such data into a temporally equidistant time series which may then be examined using commonly employed statistical tools remains, however, an unachieved goal. The present paper, therefore, introduces an approach to obtain evenly spaced time series (using cubic spline fitting) from unevenly spaced speleothem records with the application of a spectral guidance to avoid the spectral bias caused by interpolation and retain the original spectral characteristics of the data. The methodology was applied to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records derived from two stalagmites from the Baradla Cave (NE Hungary) dating back to the late 18th century. To show the benefit of the equally spaced records to climate studies, their coherence with climate parameters is explored using wavelet transform coherence and discussed. The obtained equally spaced time series are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875917.

Eight proxy indices of solar activity for the International Reference Ionosphere and Plasmasphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Sezen, U.; Poustovalova, L. V.

2018-07-01

In view of the recent recalibration of the sunspot number time series SSN2, a need has arisen to re-evaluate solar and ionospheric indices in the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to the Plasmasphere, IRI-Plas models, which are developed using the predecessor SSN1 index. To improve efficiency of the model, eight solar proxy indices are introduced in IRI-Plas system: the daily measured solar emissions, the Ottawa 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 and the H Lyman-α line at 121.6 nm; the core-to-wing ratio of the magnesium ion h and k lines at 279.56 and 280.27 nm, MgII index; sunspot number SSN1 observed before 05.2015 and modelled afterwards; re-calibrated SSN2 sunspots time series; the ionosonde foF2-based global IG-index and the Global Electron Content, GEC, index, the new ionospheric TEC-noon index based on GPS-derived Total Electron Content measurements at 288 IGS stations for 1994-2018. The regression relations are deduced between the different solar and ionospheric proxy indices smoothed by 12-month sliding window. The IG, TEC and GEC saturation or amplification effect is observed towards the solar maximum. The SSN1 and F10.7 data serve as a default IRI-Plas input while the rest indices are scaled to SSN1 units envisaged by the F2 layer peak maps. Relevant subroutines are incorporated in IRI-Plas system for automatic conversion of user's predefined index to other related indices which are applied by the different model procedures.

Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records - A Synthesis of a Multi-Proxy Approach in Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehmer, Malin Michelle; Nicolussi, Kurt; Schlüchter, Christian; Leuenberger, Markus

2017-04-01

High-resolution climate reconstructions based on tree-ring proxies are often limited by the individual segment length of living trees selected at the defined sampling sites, which mostly results in relatively short multi-centennial proxy series. A potential extension of living wood records comprise the addition of subfossil and archeological wood remains resulting in chronologies and associated climate reconstructions which are able to cover a few millennia in central Europe (e.g. Büntgen et al., 2011). However, existing multi-millennial tree-ring width chronologies in central Europe rank among the longest continuous chronologies world-wide and span the entire Holocene (Becker et al., 1993; Nicolussi et al. 2009). So far, these chronologies have mainly been used for dating subfossil wood samples, floating chronologies and archeological artifacts, but only in parts for reconstructing climate. Finds of Holocene wood remains in glacier forefields, peat bogs and small lakes allow us not only to establish such long-term tree-ring width records; further they offer the possibility to establish multi-millennial proxy records for the entire Holocene by using a multi-proxy approach which includes both tree-ring width and triple stable isotope ratios. As temperature limits tree growth at the Alpine upper tree line, the existing tree-ring width records are currently limited to reconstruct a single environmental variable. In the framework of the project Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records, we combine tree-ring width, cellulose content as well as carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotope series in a multi-proxy approach which allows the reconstruction of past environments by combining both Holocene wood remains and recent tree samples from two Alpine tree-line species. For this purpose, α-cellulose is prepared from 5-year tree ring blocks following the procedure after Boettger et al. (2007) and subsequently crushed by ultrasonic homogenization (Laumer et al., 2009). The cellulose content is determined for each individual sample and carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios are measured simultaneously (Loader et al., 2015). The isotope records of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen show distinct low-frequency trends for the Early- and Mid-Holocene, but the individual series per proxy are often offset in their isotopic signature. As the sampling sites in our study are distributed along a SW-NE transect, the influence of the site conditions (latitude, longitude, elevation, exposition) and the tree species is tested and subsequently a correction is applied to the individual series. In addition, the tree-ring width records operate as a helpful tool in detecting and attributing the influence of larch budmoth outbreaks on the cellulose content and isotope records. We here present a synthesis of the applied multi-proxy approach and its ability to reconstruct Holocene climate variability for the time span from 9000 to 3500 years b2k covering the Early-Holocene (9000 to 7200 years b2k) and Mid-Holocene (7200 to 4200 years b2k) and the transition to the late Holocene (4200 to 3500 years b2k) as well as the recent 400 years including the modern warming. References Becker, B., & Kromer, B. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 1993, 103(1): 67-71 Boettger, T., et al. Anal. Chem., 2007, 79: 4603-4612 Büntgen, U. et al. Science, 2011, 331(6017): 578-582 Laumer, W., et al. Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom., 2009, 23: 1934-1940 Loader, N.J., et al. Anal. Chem., 2015, 87: 376-380 Nicolussi K., et al. The Holocene, 2009, 19(6): 909-920

Is length of stay in hospital a stable proxy for injury severity?

PubMed

Cryer, C; Gulliver, P; Langley, J D; Davie, G

2010-08-01

Is length of stay (LoS) in hospital a stable proxy for severity of injury when monitoring time trends in serious injury incidence? To investigate whether LoS metrics (mean, median and proportion exceeding several LoS thresholds) have changed over time for injury diagnoses with known severity. Time series investigation. New Zealand population admitted to hospital for injury and discharged during the period 1989 to 1998. Interpolated median and geometric mean lengths of stay, as well as the proportion of cases that have an LoS greater than or equal to 3, 4, 7 and 14 days in hospital. ICD-9-CM diagnoses that are approximately homogeneous in regard to severity of injury (ICD-HS diagnoses) were identified. Trends were investigated in the LoS statistics for: injury and non-injury diagnoses combined; all injury diagnoses; major body sites of injury; severity strata; and ICD-HS diagnoses. Almost without exception, there was a decline in the LoS statistics over time for all diagnoses, all injury diagnoses, each body site of injury investigated, severity strata, and the ICD-HS diagnoses. Reductions in median and geometric mean LoS over time, as well as reductions in the proportion exceeding selected LoS thresholds, were due to factors other than reductions in the incidence of serious injury; for example, changes in service delivery over time. An LoS threshold should not be used as a proxy for severity of injury if the goal is to monitor time trends in injury incidence.

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) based reconstruction of 130 years of water table fluctuations in a peatland and its relevance for moisture variability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamkevičiūtė, Marija; Edvardsson, Johannes; Pukienė, Rūtilė; Taminskas, Julius; Stoffel, Markus; Corona, Christophe; Kibirkštis, Gintautas

2018-03-01

Continuous water-table (WT) measurements from peatlands are scarce and - if existing at all -very short. Consequently, proxy indicators are critically needed to simulate hydrological changes in peatlands over longer time periods. In this study, we demonstrate that tree-ring width (TRW) records of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in the Čepkeliai peatland (southern Lithuania) can be used as a proxy to reconstruct hydrological variability in a raised bog environment. A two-step modelling procedure was applied to extend existing measurements and to develop a new and longer peatland WT time series. To this end, we used instrumental WT measurements extending back to 2002, meteorological records, a P-PET (difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) series covering the period 1935-2014, so as to construct a tree-ring based time series of WT fluctuations at the site for the period 1870-2014. Strongest correlations were obtained between average annual WT measured at the bog margin and total P-PET over 7 years (r = 0.923, p < 0.00001), as well as between modelled WT and standardized TRW data with a two years lag (r = -0.602, p < 0.001) for those periods where WT fluctuated at the level of pine roots which is typically at <50 cm depth below the peat surface. Our results suggest that moisture is a limiting factor for tree growth at peatlands, but below a certain WT level (<50 cm under the soil surface), drought becomes a limiting factor instead. To validate the WT reconstruction from the Čepkeliai bog, results were compared to Nemunas river runoff since CE 1812 (r = 0.39, p < 0.00001, 1870-2014). We conclude that peatlands can act both as sinks and sources of greenhouse gases in case that hydrological conditions change, but that hydrological lags and complex feedbacks still hamper our understanding of several processes affecting the hydrology and carbon budget in peatlands. We therefore call for the development of further proxy records of water-table variability in peatlands to improve our understanding of peatland responses to climatic changes.

Seasonal climate variability in historical and prehistorical times deduced from varved lake sediments: Calibration of records from Lakes Woseriner See and Tiefer See

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, Markus; Kienel, Ulrike; Dreibrodt, Stefan; Brauer, Achim

2013-04-01

Societies are susceptible to the effects of even short-term climate variations on water supply, health, and agricultural productivity. However, understanding of human-climate interactions is limited due to the lack of high-resolution climate records in space and time. Varved lake sediments provide long time-series of seasonal climate variability directly from populated areas that can be compared to historical and archeological records. Calibration against meteorological data enables process-based insights into sediment deposition within the lake that can be extrapolated into the past using transfer functions. Lakes Woseriner See (53°40'N/12°2'E; 37 m asl.) and Tiefer See (53°23'N/13°97'E, 65 m asl.) in northeastern Germany are located only 35 km apart. Situated within the former settlement areas, the lakes are well suited for studying climate influences on society related to the Neolithic Funnelbeaker culture or the Slavic colonization. Sub-recent annual laminations allow to establish climate proxy data-series at seasonal resolution that can be calibrated against the long meteorological record from the nearby City of Schwerin. Seasonal climate proxy data-series covering the last 90 years have been obtained from short sediment cores applying a combination of microfacies analyses, X-ray fluorescence scanning (µ-XRF), and varve counting. Main sediment microfacies in both lakes are endogenic calcite varves comprising calcite and organic layer couplets of varying thickness, diatom layers, and dispersed detrital grains. Calibration against meteorological data indicates that variations in sediment layer thickness and composition are not stationary through time but influenced by inter-annual variations in meteorological conditions.

Use of Time-Series L-band Data for Estimating Forest Biomass and Landcover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siqueira, P. R.; Kellndorfer, J. M.; Chapman, B. D.; Saatchi, S.; Simard, M.

2017-12-01

The NISAR mission, set to launchal-polarized (HH- and HV-) coverage of almost all land surfaces, will provide an unprecedented time series for characterizing landcover and estimating biomass. One of the characteristics of any vegetated ecosystem is the natural variability in the hydrologic cycle, at time scales ranging from daily to seasonal. Access to a dense, high-resolution ( 25 m) data set that will be collected by NISAR will provide new avenues for characterizing this hydrologic cycle and making use of it to remove the time-varying effects of the signature on Biomass and Landcover change. In this talk, we will review some of the efforts that are ongoing in the pre-launch calibration/validation period of NISAR in an effort to create proxy time series that can be used for exercising NISAR algorithms for mapping disturbance and Above Ground Biomass in regions where the biomass is less than 100 tons/hectare. Among these efforts are the use of selected regions of ALOS-2 ScanSAR and dual-polarized high-density coverage regions, and the combination of these data sets with Sentinel-1 time series and ancillary data from SMAP and other remote sensing and mapping resources.

Inverse stochastic-dynamic models for high-resolution Greenland ice core records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Niklas; Chekroun, Mickael D.; Liu, Honghu; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Svensson, Anders; Bigler, Matthias; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

Proxy records from Greenland ice cores have been studied for several decades, yet many open questions remain regarding the climate variability encoded therein. Here, we use a Bayesian framework for inferring inverse, stochastic-dynamic models from δ18O and dust records of unprecedented, subdecadal temporal resolution. The records stem from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP), and we focus on the time interval 59-22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the dynamical characteristics of both the δ18O and dust proxy records, including the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, as well as statistical properties such as probability density functions, waiting times and power spectra, with no need for any external forcing. The crucial ingredients for capturing these properties are (i) high-resolution training data, (ii) cubic drift terms, (iii) nonlinear coupling terms between the δ18O and dust time series, and (iv) non-Markovian contributions that represent short-term memory effects.

The last millennia climate dynamics in Central Asia as a function of recent geochemical response of lacustrine sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalugin, I.; Darin, A.; Ovchinnikov, D.; Myglan, V.; Babich, V.

2010-09-01

Our knowledge of climate change with associated forcing during the last thousand-years remains limited because that cannot be studied thoroughly by instrumental data. So it is an actual task to find high resolution paleoclimate records and to compare it with recent patterns of short-period oscillations. Combination of lake sediments and tree rings appears to be effective for understanding of regional climate forcings. There are several dendrochronologies (up to 1700 years long) and comparable annual reconstructions by Teletskoye Lake sediments (1500 years) in Altai region. They are calibrated by data from 14 local weather stations (time series up to 80 years) and Barnaul station (170 years) as well. We used tree-ring series together with element contents in sediments as an additional proxy for calculation of transfer function, considering that tree-ring series are responded to summer temperature in this climatic zone. Such combined version allows taking one more independent environmental indication for objective reconstructions. Element content in sediments is provided by X-ray Fluorescence on Synchrotron Radiation microanalysis with scanning step up to 0.1mm. Age model is based on three strong dates: AD 1963 by 137Cs, and AD 897 and 1540 by radiocarbon. Time series of both annual temperature and precipitation from AD 450 to 2000 are obtained from Teletskoye Lake sediments by multiple regression and artificial neural network methods using transfer function trained by meteodata. Revealed climatic proxies (Br, U and Ti content, Sr/Rb ratio and X-ray density) appear to be fundamental for silt-clay organic-bearing sediments because the same correlation is determined in standard samples from European as well as from Siberian, Chinese and Mongolian cores. The characteristic periods for northern hemisphere such as medieval warming and Little Ice Age known in the Europe and in other Asian areas (China) are revealed in Siberian region. The spectral analysis of temperatures and humidity time series revealed the subdecade up to multidecade periods of harmonious fluctuations over the both instrumental (170 years) and restored (1500) time intervals. Some of cycles coincide within both dataset as well as with global cyclicity of atmospheric circulation.

The aliphatic hydrocarbon distributions of terrestrial plants around an alpine lake: a pilot study from Lake Ximencuo, Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Yang; Jia, Jihong; Cao, Jicheng

2017-12-01

As part of an investigation of the sources of aliphatic hydrocarbons to the sediments of alpine Lake Ximencuo, leaves of the eight dominant vascular plants were collected and their hydrocarbon contents were analyzed. A series of unsaturated aliphatic hydrocarbons were identified in the plant leaves; in particular, Festuca sp. contain a series of n-alkadienes that have rarely been reported in previous studies. The comparison of n-alkane proxies (ACL 27-33, ACL T, P aq, and CPI) and δ13Corg among plant leaves, surface soils, and lake sediments suggests that organic proxies have been altered to varying degrees during the transport and burial process of organic materials. It is believed that microbial reworking and source changes have great impacts on organic proxies in the alpine lake system. In addition, the cluster analysis for plant leaves depending on n-alkane compositions and the ACL T proxy generates similar results. Accordingly, we postulate that the average chain length of plant waxes might be a potential indicator of plant classification in regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Assessing paleo-biodiversity using low proxy influx.

PubMed

Blarquez, Olivier; Finsinger, Walter; Carcaillet, Christopher

2013-01-01

We developed an algorithm to improve richness assessment based on paleoecological series, considering sample features such as their temporal resolutions or their volumes. Our new method can be applied to both high- and low-count size proxies, i.e. pollen and plant macroremain records, respectively. While pollen generally abounds in sediments, plant macroremains are generally rare, thus leading to difficulties to compute paleo-biodiversity indices. Our approach uses resampled macroremain influxes that enable the computation of the rarefaction index for the low influx records. The raw counts are resampled to a constant resolution and sample volume by interpolating initial sample ages at a constant time interval using the age∼depth model. Then, the contribution of initial counts and volume to each interpolated sample is determined by calculating a proportion matrix that is in turn used to obtain regularly spaced time series of pollen and macroremain influx. We applied this algorithm to sedimentary data from a subalpine lake situated in the European Alps. The reconstructed total floristic richness at the study site increased gradually when both pollen and macroremain records indicated a decrease in relative abundances of shrubs and an increase in trees from 11,000 to 7,000 cal BP. This points to an ecosystem change that favored trees against shrubs, whereas herb abundance remained stable. Since 6,000 cal BP, local richness decreased based on plant macroremains, while pollen-based richness was stable. The reconstructed richness and evenness are interrelated confirming the difficulty to distinguish these two aspects for the studies in paleo-biodiversity. The present study shows that low-influx bio-proxy records (here macroremains) can be used to reconstruct stand diversity and address ecological issues. These developments on macroremain and pollen records may contribute to bridge the gap between paleoecology and biodiversity studies.

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingmin; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Mutz, Sebastian G.; Steger, Christian; Paeth, Heiko

2017-01-01

The Himalaya-Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O (δO18p) over the Himalaya-Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼ 2.0- 4.0 °C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0 °C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200-600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4 ‰ /km larger during the MH and 0.2 ‰ /km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70°E-110°E and 10°N-30°N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon.

Think Again: First Do No Harm: A Case of Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy.

PubMed

Yalndağ-Öztürk, Nilüfer; Erkek, Nilgün; Şirinoğlu, Melis Bayram

2015-10-01

Apparent life-threatening events caused by Munchausen syndrome by proxy (MSP) are rare but difficult to resolve medically. Failure to properly diagnose MSP can lead to further abuse by the caregiver and increase the risk of complications due to long hospital stays and invasive tests. In this paper, we describe our experiences with a baby who ended up being diagnosed with MSP, including our initial failure to find a pathology, delay of MSP diagnosis, our growing suspicion of MSP despite technical setbacks, our actions after we confirmed MSP as the cause of his hospitalizations. We also describe the difficulties of diagnosing MSP compared to more traditional problems and explain a series of precautions and guidelines to help detect it in a timely manner.

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

PubMed Central

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-01-01

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities. PMID:25366654

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

PubMed

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-04

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-01

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

2017-05-01

The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

Atmospheric soluble dust records from a Tibetan ice core: Possible climate proxies and teleconnection with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigholm, B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Kang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Kaspari, S.; Sneed, S. B.; Zhang, Q.

2009-10-01

In autumn 2005, a joint expedition between the University of Maine and the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research recovered three ice cores from Guoqu Glacier (33°34'37.8″N, 91°10'35.3″E, 5720 m above sea level) on the northern side of Mt. Geladaindong, central Tibetan Plateau. Isotopes (δ18O), major soluble ions (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-), and radionuclide (β-activity) measurements from one of the cores revealed a 70-year record (1935-2005). Statistical analysis of major ion time series suggests that atmospheric soluble dust species dominate the chemical signature and that background dust levels conceal marine ion species deposition. The soluble dust time series have interspecies relations and common structure (empirical orthogonal function (EOF) 1), suggesting a similar soluble dust source or transport route. Annual and seasonal correlations between the EOF 1 time series and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis climate variables (1948-2004) suggest that the Mt. Geladaindong ice core record provides a proxy for local and regional surface pressure. An approximately threefold decrease of soluble dust concentrations in the middle to late 1970s, accompanied by regional increases in pressure and temperature and decreases in wind velocity, coincides with the major 1976-1977 shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a negative to a positive state. This is the first ice core evidence of a potential teleconnection between central Asian atmospheric soluble dust loading and the PDO. Analysis of temporally longer ice cores from Mt. Geladaindong may enhance understanding of the relationship between the PDO and central Asian atmospheric circulation and subsequent atmospheric soluble dust loading.

Paleoclimatological study using stalagmites from Java Island, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Y.; Matsuoka, H.; Ohsawa, S.; Yamada, M.; Kitaoka, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Ueda, J.; Yoshimura, K.; Kurisaki, K.; Nakai, S.; Brahmantyo, B.; Maryunani, K. A.; Tagami, T.; Takemura, K.; Yoden, S.

2006-12-01

In the last decade, decoding geochemical records in stalagmites has been widely recognized as a powerful tool for the elucidation of paleoclimate/environment of the terrestrial areas. The previous data are mainly reported from areas that are located in middle latitude. However, this study aims at reconstructing past climate variations in the Asian equatorial regions by using oxygen isotopes and other geochemical proxies recorded in Indonesian stalagmites.. Especially, we focus on the detection of the precipitation anomaly that reflects the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We performed geological surveys in Buniayu limestone caves, Sukabumi, West Java, and Karangbolong, Central Java, Indonesia and collected a series of stalagmites/stalactites and drip water samples. Detailed textures of stalagmite samples were observed using thin sections to identify "annual" bandings. Moreover, we also measured both (1) annual luminescent banding that can be viewed by ultraviolet-light stimulation and (2) uranium series disequilibrium ages using the MC-ICP-MS for each stalagmite to construct the age model. We also carried out 3H-3He dating and stable isotope measurements of drip water samples to understand hydrogeology in study areas. Based on these frameworks, oxygen isotopes and other geochemical proxies will be analyzed for annual or sub-annual time scales. The proxy data will then be compared with meteorological data set, such as local precipitation, in the past 50 years. Finally, we will reconstruct for longer timescales the past climate, particularly the precipitation anomaly, in the region to detect ancient ENSO.

Temporal changes in physical, chemical and biological sediment parameters in a tropical estuary after mangrove deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellegaard, Marianne; Nguyen, Ngoc Tuong Giang; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Michelsen, Anders; Nguyen, Ngoc Lam; Doan, Nhu Hai; Kristensen, Erik; Weckström, Kaarina; Son, Tong Phuoc Hoang; Lund-Hansen, Lars Chresten

2014-04-01

Dated sediment cores taken near the head and mouth of a tropical estuary, Nha-Phu/Binh Cang, in south central Viet Nam were analyzed for changes over time in physical, chemical and biological proxies potentially influenced by removal of the mangrove forest lining the estuary. A time-series of satellite images was obtained, which showed that the depletion of the mangrove forest at the head of the estuary was relatively recent. Most of the area was converted into aquaculture ponds, mainly in the late 1990's. The sediment record showed a clear increase in sedimentation rate at the head of the estuary at the time of mangrove deforestation and a change in diatom assemblages in the core from the mouth of the estuary indicating an increase in the water column turbidity of the entire estuary at the time of the mangrove deforestation. The proportion of fine-grained sediment and the δ13C signal both increased with distance from the head of the estuary while the carbon content decreased. The nitrogen content and the δ15N signal were more or less constant throughout the estuary. The proportion of fine-grained material and the chemical proxies were more or less stable over time in the core from the mouth while they varied synchronously over time in the core from the head of the estuary. The sediment proxies combined show that mangrove deforestation had large effects on the estuary with regard to both the physical and chemical environment with implications for the biological functioning.

12 CFR 311.5 - Regular procedure for closing meetings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... respect to a series of meetings which are proposed to be closed in whole or in part to the public, or with respect to any information concerning such series of meetings, so long as each meeting in the series... meeting in the series. The vote of each Board member will be recorded and no proxies will be allowed. (2...

49 CFR 804.6 - Procedures for closing meetings, or withholding information, and requests by affected persons to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... series of meetings, a portion or portions of which are proposed to be closed to the public, or with respect to any information concerning such series of meetings, so long as each meeting in such series... initial meeting in such series. Each Member's vote under this paragraph shall be recorded and proxies are...

49 CFR 804.6 - Procedures for closing meetings, or withholding information, and requests by affected persons to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... series of meetings, a portion or portions of which are proposed to be closed to the public, or with respect to any information concerning such series of meetings, so long as each meeting in such series... initial meeting in such series. Each Member's vote under this paragraph shall be recorded and proxies are...

49 CFR 804.6 - Procedures for closing meetings, or withholding information, and requests by affected persons to...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... series of meetings, a portion or portions of which are proposed to be closed to the public, or with respect to any information concerning such series of meetings, so long as each meeting in such series... initial meeting in such series. Each Member's vote under this paragraph shall be recorded and proxies are...

12 CFR 311.5 - Regular procedure for closing meetings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... respect to a series of meetings which are proposed to be closed in whole or in part to the public, or with respect to any information concerning such series of meetings, so long as each meeting in the series... meeting in the series. The vote of each Board member will be recorded and no proxies will be allowed. (2...

Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

2013-01-01

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

The last millennium of Aleutian low variability based on dendrochonolgy and water isotope proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaglioti, B.; Mann, D. H.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Wiles, G. C.; Streverler, G.; Williams, P.; Field, R. D.; D'Arrigo, R.

2017-12-01

How the wintertime Aleutian Low pressure system (AL) will respond to climate forcing is germane to the forest resources, glaciers, and fisheries in the North Pacific region. Recent work suggests the AL has strengthened over the last few centuries, and new, high-resolution paleo-records could help evaluate this trend. Namely, when it started, whether it has any historical precedents, and what it means for high-latitude climate feedbacks? Our study area is Southeast Alaska and the Southwest Yukon Territory, where the winters are warmer and wetter when the AL is stronger (deeper) and positioned further east. First, we use newly developed winter-sensitive tree-ring records to determine how AL variability has changed over the past 1000 years. During winters with a stronger AL, meridional flow brings: (i) heavy ice storms and snow loads to the coastal mountains that can injure sub-alpine trees; (ii) thaw events that can compromise growth in coastal forests; and (iii) changes in seasonality that can moderate the climate sensitivity of mid-elevation trees. Therefore, a time series of changing tree architecture in the mountains, tree ring widths in the lowlands, and running inter-series correlation in mid-slope chronologies collectively provide a landscape-level view of paleo-AL variability. Second, we compare and complement this dendro perspective with new proxy records based on stable oxygen isotope ratios measured in tree-ring and peat cellulose (d18O cell). To interpret how these proxies reflect the AL, we analyze the precipitation isotopes in Gustavus, Alaska over the past 16 months. We then use d18Ocell time series along a coastal to inland transect that records the degree of heavy-isotope rainout over the St. Elias Mountains, a factor that depends on the sources and pathways of the dominant storm tracks, which are influenced by the AL strength. We will present these new data in the context of existing AL reconstructions, and discuss the implications for the ongoing trends, and environmental corollaries of AL strength.

Munchausen by Proxy: A Case, Chart Series, and Literature Review of Older Victims

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Awadallah, Nida; Vaughan, Aaron; Franco, Kathleen; Munir, Farah; Sharaby, Na'ama; Goldfarb, Johanna

2005-01-01

The history of an older child victim of Munchausen by proxy (MBP) is described. He was referred for evaluation after repeated sinus surgeries for recurrent sinus infections believed to be related to a falsified history of an immunodeficiency. The perpetrator was the mother of this 14-year-old victim, consistent with the majority of such cases.…

Paleoclimate reconstruction through Bayesian data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, I.; Raiho, A.; Rollinson, C.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

Methods of paleoclimate reconstruction from plant-based proxy data rely on assumptions of static vegetation-climate link which is often established between modern climate and vegetation. This approach might result in biased climate constructions as it does not account for vegetation dynamics. Predictive tools such as process-based dynamic vegetation models (DVM) and their Bayesian inversion could be used to construct the link between plant-based proxy data and palaeoclimate more realistically. In other words, given the proxy data, it is possible to infer the climate that could result in that particular vegetation composition, by comparing the DVM outputs to the proxy data within a Bayesian state data assimilation framework. In this study, using fossil pollen data from five sites across the northern hardwood region of the US, we assimilate fractional composition and aboveground biomass into dynamic vegetation models, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS and ED2. To do this, starting from 4 Global Climate Model outputs, we generate an ensemble of downscaled meteorological drivers for the period 850-2015. Then, as a first pass, we weigh these ensembles based on their fidelity with independent paleoclimate proxies. Next, we run the models with this ensemble of drivers, and comparing the ensemble model output to the vegetation data, adjust the model state estimates towards the data. At each iteration, we also reweight the climate values that make the model and data consistent, producing a reconstructed climate time-series dataset. We validated the method using present-day datasets, as well as a synthetic dataset, and then assessed the consistency of results across ecosystem models. Our method allows the combination of multiple data types to reconstruct the paleoclimate, with associated uncertainty estimates, based on ecophysiological and ecological processes rather than phenomenological correlations with proxy data.

The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes.

PubMed

Damschen, Ellen I; Brudvig, Lars A; Haddad, Nick M; Levey, Douglas J; Orrock, John L; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2008-12-09

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities, and external factors. We modified this framework to generate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersed species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time, whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damschen, Ellen I.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Haddad, Nick M.

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities,and external factors. We modified this framework togenerate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersedmore » species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time,whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.« less

Development of a Genome-Proxy Microarray for Profiling Marine Microbial Communities and its Application to a Time Series in Monterey Bay, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

community representation. 12 survey a complex microbial community. Community DNA or rRNA extracted from a sample may require amplification before...restricted to cultivated clades, since not only do many clades have sufficient database representation due to 16S environmental surveys , but such...well developed for standard and comprehensive surveys . Depending on the population being targeted and the identification method, FCM can be a

Magnetostratigraphy susceptibility for the Guadalupian Series GSSPs (Middle Permian) in Guadalupe Mountains National Park and adjacent areas in West Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wardlaw, Bruce R.; Ellwood, Brooks B.; Lambert, Lance L.; Tomkin, Jonathan H.; Bell, Gordon L.; Nestell, Galina P.

2012-01-01

Here we establish a magnetostratigraphy susceptibility zonation for the three Middle Permian Global boundary Stratotype Sections and Points (GSSPs) that have recently been defined, located in Guadalupe Mountains National Park, West Texas, USA. These GSSPs, all within the Middle Permian Guadalupian Series, define (1) the base of the Roadian Stage (base of the Guadalupian Series), (2) the base of the Wordian Stage and (3) the base of the Capitanian Stage. Data from two additional stratigraphic successions in the region, equivalent in age to the Kungurian–Roadian and Wordian–Capitanian boundary intervals, are also reported. Based on low-field, mass specific magnetic susceptibility (χ) measurements of 706 closely spaced samples from these stratigraphic sections and time-series analysis of one of these sections, we (1) define the magnetostratigraphy susceptibility zonation for the three Guadalupian Series Global boundary Stratotype Sections and Points; (2) demonstrate that χ datasets provide a proxy for climate cyclicity; (3) give quantitative estimates of the time it took for some of these sediments to accumulate; (4) give the rates at which sediments were accumulated; (5) allow more precise correlation to equivalent sections in the region; (6) identify anomalous stratigraphic horizons; and (7) give estimates for timing and duration of geological events within sections.

Drought multiproxy reconstruction in the Czech Lands from AD 1500

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Rybníček, Michal; Kolář, Tomáš

2017-04-01

Whereas the air temperature variability in the past and recent climate is well understood, our knowledge on hydroclimate (drought/precipitation) from various proxy archives and instrumental measurements are sketchy and sometimes even contradictory. This is related to huge spatial and temporal hydroclimate variability that underlines the importance of detailed local/regional studies on long-term hydroclimate variability. We present main results of summer drought reconstruction for the territory of the Czech Republic (CR) spanning the last 500 years. Drought is represented by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Summer (JJA) SPEI values calculated from various instrumental measurements from the CR and covering most of the 19th and 20th centuries represent the target data. Three different proxy archives were used for SPEI reconstruction: a) Central European monthly temperature and Czech seasonal precipitation index series derived from documentary evidence (1500-1854); b) grape harvest dates for the Czech Lands (1499-2012); c) oak (Quercus spp.) ring width chronologies from Bohemia (western part of the CR, 1500-2012). Linear regression with subsequent variance scaling were used for calibration in different time intervals covering mostly second part of the 19th and the first part of the 20th centuries. Response functions were further verified on independent proxy and target data. The strongest hydroclimate signal was found for grape harvest dates (more that 70% of explained variance) while oak ring width series show relatively weak reconstruction skill (30% of common variance between proxy and target data). The three SPEI reconstructions show several common features in their long-term variability. Distinctly dry periods cover the first half of the 16th century, which included an extremely dry 1540, and the years since the late 1970s. Higher humidity was characteristic for the second part of the 16th century and also for the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Evaluating the Effect of Autogenic Sedimentation on the Preservation of Climate Proxy Records: Modeling and Examples from the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trampush, S. M.; Hajek, E. A.

2016-12-01

The stratigraphic record provides a vital opportunity to investigate how changes in climate can impact many different landscapes and seascapes. However, the inherent variability in sedimentation within many depositional environments may mask or remove the signature of climate change. A common solution is to use geochemical proxies - usually collected at regular stratigraphic intervals - to independently identify climate events. This approach doesn't account for the potentially significant variability in deposition and erosion time series resulting from autogenic landscape dynamics. In order to explore how geochemical proxy records could be overprinted by landscape dynamics, we use a 1D stochastic sedimentation model where we mimic fluvial, lacustrine, shallow marine, and deep marine environmental dynamics by varying the frequency-magnitude distributions of sedimentation rates. We find that even conservative estimates of the frequency and magnitude of stochastic sedimentation variability can heavily modify proxy records in characteristic ways by alternately removing, compressing, and expanding portions of the record, regardless of the magnitude or duration of the climatic event. Our model results are consistent with observations of the carbon isotope excursions of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) preserved within both fluvial (e.g. the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming and the Piceance Basin, Colorado) and shallow marine (e.g. the New Jersey shelf) deposits. Our results suggest that we may be able to use existing geochemical proxy records within well studied, global climate events, such as the PETM, to constrain the variability in sedimentation present within different depositional environments.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

A Method to Assess Seasonality of Urinary Tract Infections Based on Medication Sales and Google Trends

PubMed Central

Lambert, Bruno; Flahault, Antoine; Chartier-Kastler, Emmanuel; Hanslik, Thomas

2013-01-01

Background Despite the fact that urinary tract infection (UTI) is a very frequent disease, little is known about its seasonality in the community. Methods and Findings To estimate seasonality of UTI using multiple time series constructed with available proxies of UTI. Eight time series based on two databases were used: sales of urinary antibacterial medications reported by a panel of pharmacy stores in France between 2000 and 2012, and search trends on the Google search engine for UTI-related terms between 2004 and 2012 in France, Germany, Italy, the USA, China, Australia and Brazil. Differences between summers and winters were statistically assessed with the Mann-Whitney test. We evaluated seasonality by applying the Harmonics Product Spectrum on Fast Fourier Transform. Seven time series out of eight displayed a significant increase in medication sales or web searches in the summer compared to the winter, ranging from 8% to 20%. The eight time series displayed a periodicity of one year. Annual increases were seen in the summer for UTI drug sales in France and Google searches in France, the USA, Germany, Italy, and China. Increases occurred in the austral summer for Google searches in Brazil and Australia. Conclusions An annual seasonality of UTIs was evidenced in seven different countries, with peaks during the summer. PMID:24204587

Feasibility of high-density climate reconstruction based on Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) collected tree-ring data

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; Shih-Yu Wang; John D. Shaw

2013-01-01

This study introduces a novel tree-ring dataset, with unparalleled spatial density, for use as a climate proxy. Ancillary Douglas fir and pinyon pine tree-ring data collected by the U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis Program (FIA data) were subjected to a series of tests to determine their feasibility as climate proxies. First, temporal coherence between...

Geochemistry of speleothem records from southern Illinois: Development of (234U)/(238U) as a proxy for paleoprecipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, Juanzuo; Lundstrom, C.C.; Fouke, B.; Panno, S.; Hackley, K.; Curry, B.

2005-01-01

Natural waters universally show fractionation of uranium series (U-series) parent-daughter pairs, with the disequilibrium between 234U and 238U (234U)/(238U) commonly used as a tracer of groundwater flow. Because speleothems provide a temporal record of geochemical variations in groundwater precipitating calcite, (234U)/(238U) variations in speleothems provide a unique method of investigating water-rock interaction processes over millennium time scales. We present high precision Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometric (TIMS) U-series analyses of speleothems and drip waters from Fogelpole Cave in southern Illinois. Data from all speleothems from the cave show an inverse correlation between (234U)/(238U) and U concentration, following the pattern observed in groundwaters globally. Within a 65-cm-long stalagmite, concordant 234U-238 U-230Th and 235U-231Pa ages for 5 samples indicate accurate chronology from 78.5 ka to 30 ka. Notably, (234U)/(238U)o which differs from most speleothems by having (234U)/(238U)o <1, positively correlates with speleothem growth rate. We generalize this to the observation that speleothems globally show (234U)/ (238U)o deviating farther from secular equilibrium at lower growth rates and approaching secular equilibrium at higher grow rates. Based on the Fogelpole observations, we suggest that groundwater (234U)/(238U) is controlled by the U oxidation state, the U concentration of the water and the fluid velocity. A transport model whereby U-series nuclides react and exchange with mineral surfaces can reproduce the observed trend between growth rate and (234U)/(238U)o. Based on this result, we suggest that (234U)/(238U)o in speleothems may record changes in hydrologic flux with time and thus could provide a useful proxy for long term records of paleoprecipitation. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records.

PubMed

Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M

2017-09-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records

PubMed Central

Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M.

2017-01-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 104 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. PMID:28924607

Lake transparency: a window into decadal variations in dissolved organic carbon concentrations in Lakes of Acadia National Park, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roesler, Collin S.; Culbertson, Charles W.

2016-01-01

A forty year time series of Secchi depth observations from approximately 25 lakes in Acadia National Park, Maine, USA, evidences large variations in transparency between lakes but relatively little seasonal cycle within lakes. However, there are coherent patterns over the time series, suggesting large scale processes are responsible. It has been suggested that variations in colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) are primarily responsible for the variations in transparency, both between lakes and over time and further that CDOM is a robust optical proxy for dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Here we present a forward model of Secchi depth as a function of DOC based upon first principles and bio-optical relationships. Inverting the model to estimate DOC concentration from Secchi depth observations compared well with the measured DOC concentrations collected since 1995 (RMS error < 1.3 mg C l-1). This inverse model allows the time series of DOC to be extended back to the mid 1970s when only Secchi depth observations were collected, and thus provides a means for investigating lake response to climate forcing, changing atmospheric chemistry and watershed characteristics, including land cover and land use.

Comparing children's GPS tracks with geospatial proxies for exposure to junk food.

PubMed

Sadler, Richard C; Gilliland, Jason A

2015-01-01

Various geospatial techniques have been employed to estimate children's exposure to environmental cardiometabolic risk factors, including junk food. But many studies uncritically rely on exposure proxies which differ greatly from actual exposure. Misrepresentation of exposure by researchers could lead to poor decisions and ineffective policymaking. This study conducts a GIS-based analysis of GPS tracks--'activity spaces'--and 21 proxies for activity spaces (e.g. buffers, container approaches) for a sample of 526 children (ages 9-14) in London, Ontario, Canada. These measures are combined with a validated food environment database (including fast food and convenience stores) to create a series of junk food exposure estimates and quantify the errors resulting from use of different proxy methods. Results indicate that exposure proxies consistently underestimate exposure to junk foods by as much as 68%. This underestimation is important to policy development because children are exposed to more junk food than estimated using typical methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal downscaling of decadal sediment load estimates to a daily interval for use in hindcast simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Knowles, N.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2008-01-01

In this study we used hydrologic proxies to develop a daily sediment load time-series, which agrees with decadal sediment load estimates, when integrated. Hindcast simulations of bathymetric change in estuaries require daily sediment loads from major tributary rivers, to capture the episodic delivery of sediment during multi-day freshwater flow pulses. Two independent decadal sediment load estimates are available for the Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta, California prior to 1959, but they must be downscaled to a daily interval for use in hindcast models. Daily flow and sediment load data to the Delta are available after 1930 and 1959, respectively, but bathymetric change simulations for San Francisco Bay prior to this require a method to generate daily sediment load estimates into the Delta. We used two historical proxies, monthly rainfall and unimpaired flow magnitudes, to generate monthly unimpaired flows to the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta for the 1851-1929 period. This step generated the shape of the monthly hydrograph. These historical monthly flows were compared to unimpaired monthly flows from the modern era (1967-1987), and a least-squares metric selected a modern water year analogue for each historical water year. The daily hydrograph for the modern analogue was then assigned to the historical year and scaled to match the flow volume estimated by dendrochronology methods, providing the correct total flow for the year. We applied a sediment rating curve to this time-series of daily flows, to generate daily sediment loads for 1851-1958. The rating curve was calibrated with the two independent decadal sediment load estimates, over two distinct periods. This novel technique retained the timing and magnitude of freshwater flows and sediment loads, without damping variability or net sediment loads to San Francisco Bay. The time-series represents the hydraulic mining period with sustained periods of increased sediment loads, and a dramatic decrease after 1910, corresponding to a reduction in available mining debris. The analogue selection procedure also permits exploration of the morphological hydrograph concept, where a limited set of hydrographs is used to simulate the same bathymetric change as the actual set of hydrographs. The final daily sediment load time-series and morphological hydrograph concept will be applied as landward boundary conditions for hindcasting simulations of bathymetric change in San Francisco Bay.

The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes

DOE PAGES

Damschen, Ellen I.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Haddad, Nick M.; ...

2008-12-05

A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities,and external factors. We modified this framework togenerate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species colonization and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersedmore » species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time,whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.« less

A Systematic Review of the Time Series Studies Addressing the Endemic Risk of Acute Gastroenteritis According to Drinking Water Operation Conditions in Urban Areas of Developed Countries

PubMed Central

Beaudeau, Pascal

2018-01-01

Time series studies (TSS) can be viewed as an inexpensive way to tackle the non-epidemic health risk from fecal pathogens in tap water in urban areas. Following the PRISMA recommendations, I reviewed TSS addressing the endemic risk of acute gastroenteritis risk according to drinking water operation conditions in urban areas of developed countries. Eighteen studies were included, covering 17 urban sites (seven in North-America and 10 in Europe) with study populations ranging from 50,000 to 9 million people. Most studies used general practitioner consultations or visits to hospitals for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) as health outcomes. In 11 of the 17 sites, a significant and plausible association was found between turbidity (or particle count) in finished water and the AGE indicator. When provided and significant, the interquartile excess of relative risk estimates ranged from 3–13%. When examined, water temperature, river flow, and produced flow were strongly associated with the AGE indicator. The potential of TSS for the study of the health risk from fecal pathogens in tap water is limited by the lack of specificity of turbidity and its site-sensitive value as an exposure proxy. Nevertheless, at the DWS level, TSS could help water operators to identify operational conditions most at risk, almost if considering other water operation indicators, in addition to turbidity, as possible relevant proxies for exposure. PMID:29701701

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Unraveling multiple changes in complex climate time series using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2016-04-01

Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system. The precise detection and basic characterization of underlying changes is therefore of particular importance in environmental sciences. We present a kernel-based Bayesian inference approach to investigate direct as well as indirect climate observations for multiple generic transition events. In order to develop a diagnostic approach designed to capture a variety of natural processes, the basic statistical features of central tendency and dispersion are used to locally approximate a complex time series by a generic transition model. A Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of such a transition. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes occurring at different temporal scales, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. Thus, based on a generic transition model a probability expression is derived that is capable to indicate multiple changes within a complex time series. We discuss the method's performance by investigating direct and indirect climate observations. The approach is applied to environmental time series (about 100 a), from the weather station in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and confirms documented instrumentation changes. Moreover, the approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records from the ODP sites 659, 721/722 and 967 interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period (about 5 Ma). The detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations coinciding with established global climate events.

High resolution water stable isotope profiles of abrupt climate transitions in Greenland ice with new observations from NEEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popp, T. J.; White, J. W. C.; Gkinis, V.; Vinther, B. M.; Johnsen, S. J.

2012-04-01

In 1989 Willi Dansgaard and others, using the DYE3 ice core, showed that the abrupt termination of the Younger Dryas expressed in water stable isotope ratios and deuterium excess was completed in less than 50 years. A few years later, using the GISP2 ice core, Richard Alley and others proposed that snow accumulation at the site doubled in as little as 1-3 years across the same climate transition at the end of the Younger Dryas. Over the next two decades, in large part due to such observations from Greenland ice cores, a paradigm of linked, abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region has been developed around North Atlantic deep water formation, North Atlantic sea ice extent, and widespread atmospheric circulation changes occurring repeatedly during the last glacial period in response to changing freshwater fluxes to the region, or perhaps other causes. More recently, with the NGRIP ice core, using a suite of high resolution proxy data, and in particular deuterium excess, it was observed again that certain features in the climate system can switch modes from one year to the next, while other proxies can take from decades to centuries to completely switch modes. Thus, an event seen in the proxy records such as the abrupt end of the Younger Dryas (or other interstadial events) may comprise multiple climatic or oceanic responses with different relative timing and duration which potentially follow a predictable sequence of events, in some cases separated by only a few years. Today, the search continues for these emerging patterns through isotopic and other highly resolvable proxy data series from ice cores. With the recent completion of the drilling at NEEM, many abrupt transitions have now been measured in detail over a geographic transect with drilling sites spanning from DYE3 in Southern Greenland, GISP2 in the central summit region, and up to NGRIP and NEEM in the far north. The anatomy of abrupt climate transitions can therefore be examined both spatially and temporally, where obtaining the highest possible temporal resolution is desirable to resolve patterns. A new method for measuring water stable isotope ratios has been developed during the NEEM project that allows us to measure a carefully controlled fraction of a continuously melted ice core section which is evaporated directly into Cavity Ring Down Laser Spectrometer in the Near-Infrared spectrum. In such a system the resolution can be maximized (and characterized) largely as a function of both the melt rate and minimizing subsequent mixing in the gas phase during analysis. These new detailed water isotope series from the NEEM ice core are examined with respect to the corresponding series from new and previously available series from the other ice cores. The emerging picture indicates that abrupt climate changes have both a temporal and geographic anatomy that can change from one event to the next in how they are recorded across Greenland. Together with modeling and chemical impurity data, these patterns we detect in the water stable isotope series will provide clues and constraints to the timing and origin of oceanic and atmospheric changes that make up an abrupt climate change.

Income and Technology as Drivers of Australian Healthcare Expenditures.

PubMed

You, Xiaohui; Okunade, Albert A

2017-07-01

The roles of income and technology as the major determinants of aggregate healthcare expenditure (HEXP) continue to interest economists and health policy researchers. Concepts and measures of medical technologies remain complex; however, income (on the demand side) and technology (on the supply side) are important drivers of HEXP. This paper presents analysis of Australia's HEXP, using time-series econometrics modeling techniques applied to 1971-2011 annual aggregate data. Our work fills two important gaps in the literature. First, we model the determinants of Australia's HEXP using the latest and longest available data series. Second, this novel study investigates several alternative technology proxies (input and output measures), including economy-wide research and development expenditures, hospital research expenditures, mortality rate, and two technology indexes based on medical devices. We then apply the residual component method and the technology proxy approach to quantify the technology effects on HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that Australian aggregate healthcare is a normal good and a technical necessity with the income elasticity estimates ranging from 0.51 to 0.97, depending on the model. The estimated technology effects on HEXP falling in the 0.30-0.35 range and mimicking those in the literature using the US data, reinforce the global spread of healthcare technology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profiles, their trends and attribution to proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerefos, Christos; Kapsomenakis, John; Eleftheratos, Kostas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Hubert, Daan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Frith, Stacey; Sofieva, Viktoria; Hassler, Birgit

2018-05-01

This paper is focusing on the representativeness of single lidar stations for zonally averaged ozone profile variations over the middle and upper stratosphere. From the lower to the upper stratosphere, ozone profiles from single or grouped lidar stations correlate well with zonal means calculated from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite overpasses. The best representativeness with significant correlation coefficients is found within ±15° of latitude circles north or south of any lidar station. This paper also includes a multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysis on the relative importance of proxy time series for explaining variations in the vertical ozone profiles. Studied proxies represent variability due to influences outside of the earth system (solar cycle) and within the earth system, i.e. dynamic processes (the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, QBO; the Arctic Oscillation, AO; the Antarctic Oscillation, AAO; the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), those due to volcanic aerosol (aerosol optical depth, AOD), tropopause height changes (including global warming) and those influences due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric chemistry (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine, EESC). Ozone trends are estimated, with and without removal of proxies, from the total available 1980 to 2015 SBUV record. Except for the chemistry related proxy (EESC) and its orthogonal function, the removal of the other proxies does not alter the significance of the estimated long-term trends. At heights above 15 hPa an inflection point between 1997 and 1999 marks the end of significant negative ozone trends, followed by a recent period between 1998 and 2015 with positive ozone trends. At heights between 15 and 40 hPa the pre-1998 negative ozone trends tend to become less significant as we move towards 2015, below which the lower stratosphere ozone decline continues in agreement with findings of recent literature.

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan; Fabian, Karl; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO reconstructions are crucial to better understand NAO variability in its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and possible shifts associated with ongoing climate change. Fjord deposits have a great potential for providing high-resolution sedimentary records that reflect local terrestrial and marine processes and, therefore, offer unique opportunities for the investigation of sedimentological and geochemical climatically induced processes. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we use the gained knowledge to establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record from marine sediments. By comparing geochemical measurements from a short sediment core with instrumental data we show that marine primary productivity proxies are sensitive to NAO changes. Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAO-TFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2,800 years. The NAO-TFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends.

A multivariate auto-regressive combined-harmonics analysis and its application to ozone time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Eun-Su

2001-07-01

A new statistical approach is used to analyze Dobson Umkehr layer-ozone measurements at Arosa for 1979-1996 and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Version 7 zonal mean ozone for 1979-1993, accounting for stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and solar flux effects. A stepwise regression scheme selects statistically significant periodicities caused by season, SAOD, QBO, and solar variations and filters them out. Auto-regressive (AR) terms are included in ozone residuals and time lags are assumed for the residuals of exogenous variables. Then, the magnitudes of responses of ozone to the SAOD, QBO, and solar index (SI) series are derived from the stationary time series of the residuals. These Multivariate Auto-Regressive Combined Harmonics (MARCH) processes possess the following significant advantages: (1)the ozone trends are estimated more precisely than the previous methods; (2)the influences of the exogenous SAOD, QBO, and solar variations are clearly separated at various time lags; (3)the collinearity of the exogenous variables in the regression is significantly reduced; and (4)the probability of obtaining misleading correlations between ozone and exogenous times series is reduced. The MARCH results indicate that the Umkehr ozone response to SAOD (not a real ozone response but rather an optical interference effect), QBO, and solar effects is driven by combined dynamical radiative-chemical processes. These results are independently confirmed using the revised Standard models that include aerosol and solar forcing mechanisms with all possible time lags but not by the Standard model when restricted to a zero time lag in aerosol and solar ozone forcings. As for Dobson Umkehr ozone measurements at Arosa, the aerosol effects are most significant in layers 8, 7, and 6 with no time lag, as is to be expected due to the optical contamination of Umkehr measurements by SAOD. The QBO and solar UV effects appear in all layers 4-8, and in total ozone. In order to account for annual modulation of the equatorial winds that affects ozone at midlatitudes, a new QBO proxy is selected and applied to the Dobson Umkehr measurements at Arosa. The QBO proxy turns out to be more effective to filter the modulated ozone signals at midlatitudes than the mostly used QBO proxy, the Singapore winds at 30 mb. A statistically significant negative phase relationship is found between solar UV variation and ozone response, especially in layer 4, implying dynamical effects of solar variations on ozone at midlatitudes. Linear negative trends in ozone of -7.8 +/- 1.1 and -5.2 +/- 1.4 [%/decade +/- 2σ] are calculated in layers 7 (~35 km) and 8 (~40 km), respectively, for the period of 1979-1996, with smaller trends of -2.2 +/- 1.0, 1.8 +/- 0.9, and -1.4 +/- 1.1 in layers 6 (~30 km), 5 (~25 km), and 4 (~20 km), respectively. A trend in total ozone (layers 1 through 10) of -2.9 +/- 1.2 [%/decade +/- 2σ] is found over this same period. The aerosol effects obtained from the TOMS zonal means become significant at midlatitudes. QBO ozone contributes to the TOMS zonal means by +/-2 to 4% of their means. The negative solar ozone responses are also found at midlatitudes from the TOMS measurements. The most negative trends from TOMS zonal means are about -6.3 +/- 0.6%/decade at 40-50°N.

SINOMA - A new iterative statistical approach for the identification of linear relationships between noisy time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thees, Barnim; Buras, Allan; Jetschke, Gottfried; Kutzbach, Lars; Zorita, Eduardo; Wilmking, Martin

2014-05-01

In paleoclimatology, reconstructions of environmental conditions play a significant role. Such reconstructions rely on the relationship between proxies (e.g. tree-rings, lake sediments) and the processes which are to be reconstructed (e.g. temperature, precipitation, solar activity). However, both of these variable types in general are noisy. For instance, ring-width is only a proxy for tree growth and further determined by several other environmental signals (e.g. precipitation, length of growing season, competition). On the other hand, records of process data that are to be reconstructed are mostly available for too short periods (too short in terms of calibration) at the particular site at which the proxy data have been sampled. The resulting 'spatial' noise (e.g. by using climate station data not situated at the proxy site) causes additional errors in the relationship between measured proxy data and available process data (e.g. Kutzbach et al., 2011). If deriving models from such noisy data, Thees et al. (2009) and Kutzbach et al. (2011) could show (amongst others), that model slopes (the factor with which the one variable is multiplied to predict the other variable) in most cases are misestimated - depending on the ratio of the variances of the respective variable noises. Despite these facts, many recent reconstructions are based on ordinary least squares regressions, which underestimate model slopes as they do not account for the noise in the predictor variable (Kutzbach et al., 2011). This is because there yet only are few methodological approaches available to treat noisy data in terms of modeling, and for those methods additional information (e.g. a good estimate of the error noise ratio) which often is impossible to acquire is needed. Here we introduce the Sequential Iterative NOise Matching Algorithm - SINOMA - with which we are able to derive good estimates for model slopes between noisy time series. The mathematical background of SINOMA is described accompanied by a successful application to a pseudo-proxy dataset of which the error noise conditions and true model parameters are known. Further examples on its successful application are intended for presentation in another contribution to this EGU session (Buras et al., 2014) which aims at representing SINOMAs range of applicability rather than its theoretical background which is the focus of the herewith submitted contribution. Given the features of yet published paleoclimatological reconstructions (mostly ordinary least squares regression) and the generally noisy characteristics of process and proxy data, SINOMA has the potential to change our understanding of past climate variability. This is because the magnitude of amplitudes in reconstructed climate parameters may change significantly as soon as comparably precise slope estimates (as acquired by SINOMA) are used for reconstructions. Therefore, SINOMA has the potential to reframe our picture of the past. References Kutzbach, L., Thees, B., and Wilmking, M., 2011: Identification of linear relationships from noisy data using errors-in-variables models - relevance for reconstruction of past climate from tree-ring and other proxy information. Climatic Change 105, 155-177. Thees, B., Kutzbach, L., Wilmking, M., Zorita, E., 2009: Ein Bewertungsmaß für die amplitudentreue regressive Abbildung von verrauschten Daten im Rahmen einer iterativen "Errors in Variables" Modellierung (EVM). GKSS Reports 2009/8. GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht, Germany, 20 pp (in German) Allan Buras, Barnim Thees, Markus Czymzik, Nadine Dräger, Ulrike Kienel, Ina Neugebauer, Florian Ott, Tobias Scharnweber, Sonia Simard, Michal Slowinski, Sandra Slowinski, Izabela Zawiska, and Martin Wilmking, 2014: SINOMA - a better tool for proxy based reconstructions? Abstract submitted to EGU-session CL 6.1.

Quantification of depositional changes and paleo-seismic activities from laminated sediments using outcrop data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weidlich, O.; Bernecker, M.

2004-04-01

Measurements of laminations from marine and limnic sediments are commonly a time-consuming procedure. However, the resulting quantitative proxies are of importance for the interpretation of both, climate changes and paleo-seismic activities. Digital image analysis accelerates the generation and interpretation of large data sets from laminated sediments based on contrasting grey values of dark and light laminae. Statistical transformation and correlation of the grey value signals reflect high frequency cycles due to changing mean laminae thicknesses, and thus provide data monitoring climate change. Perturbations (e.g., slumping structures, seismites, and tsunamites) of the commonly continuous laminae record seismic activities and obtain proxies for paleo-earthquake frequency. Using outcrop data from (i) the Pleistocene Lisan Formation of Jordan (Dead Sea Basin) and (ii) the Carboniferous-Permian Copacabana Formation of Bolivia (Lake Titicaca), we present a two-step approach to gain high-resolution time series based on field data for both purposes from unconsolidated and lithified outcrops. Step 1 concerns the construction of a continuous digital phototransect and step 2 covers the creation of a grey density curve based on digital photos along a line transect using image analysis. The applied automated image analysis technique provides a continuous digital record of the studied sections and, therefore, serves as useful tool for the evaluation of further proxy data. Analysing the obtained grey signal of the light and dark laminae of varves using phototransects, we discuss the potential and limitations of the proposed technique.

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

2015-10-01

Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Light is an active contributor to the vital effects of coral skeleton proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juillet-Leclerc, Anne; Reynaud, Stéphanie; Dissard, Delphine; Tisserand, Guillaume; Ferrier-Pagès, Christine

2014-09-01

Symbiotic colonies of the coral Acropora sp. were cultured in a factorial design of three temperatures (21, 25 and 28 °C) and two light intensities (200 and 400 μmol photon m-2 s-1), under constant conditions. A temperature of 25 °C and a light intensity of 200 μmol photon m-2 s-1 was the starting culture condition. Metabolic (photosynthesis, respiration, calcification and surface expansion rate) and geochemical measurements (δ18O, δ13C, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) were conducted on 6 colonies for each experimental condition. Metabolic measurements confirmed that respiration, photosynthesis, calcification and surface expansion rate responded to the combined effect of temperature and light. Under each light intensity, mean calcification rate was linearly correlated with mean photosynthetic activity. Geochemical measurements were also influenced by temperature and, to a lesser degree, by light. All geochemical proxies measured on 6 nubbins showed a wide scattering of values, regardless of the environmental condition. Compared to the other proxies, δ18O exhibited a different behavior. It was the only proxy exhibiting temperature tracer behavior. However, while mean values of Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca and δ13C were well correlated, the correlation between the later and mean δ18O differed with light level. This suggests that both skeleton deposition and temperature oxygen fractionation differs according to light intensity. Overall, the effect of light on geochemical values seems to compromise the use of proxy calibrations solely based on temperature influence. Under high light conditions, the great amplitude shown by individual net photosynthesis is directly proportional to the highly variable zooxanthellae density. As light is affecting all of the proxies, we thus assume that the strong geochemical variability observed could be explained by various algae densities, each nubbin responding according to its zooxanthellae amount. Accordingly, we suggest that each symbiosome (the assemblage of few corallites with their symbionts) presents its own vital effect influence over time. Therefore, at a bulk sample scale, light could be considered as one of the major causes of what is commonly referred to as the 'vital effect'. The meaning of δ18O calibration versus temperature established from distinct colonies differs from calibration calculated from samples collected following the growth axis of a single coral head. Finally, in order to quantitatively reconstruct climatic condition, we suggest a new paradigm based on the statistical treatment of the combination of time-series information from several proxies, all measured on the same sample from a continuous symbiosome.

Improving dynamic phytoplankton reserve-utilization models with an indirect proxy for internal nitrogen.

PubMed

Malerba, Martino E; Heimann, Kirsten; Connolly, Sean R

2016-09-07

Ecologists have often used indirect proxies to represent variables that are difficult or impossible to measure directly. In phytoplankton, the internal concentration of the most limiting nutrient in a cell determines its growth rate. However, directly measuring the concentration of nutrients within cells is inaccurate, expensive, destructive, and time-consuming, substantially impairing our ability to model growth rates in nutrient-limited phytoplankton populations. The red chlorophyll autofluorescence (hereafter "red fluorescence") signal emitted by a cell is highly correlated with nitrogen quota in nitrogen-limited phytoplankton species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of including flow cytometric red fluorescence as a proxy for internal nitrogen status to model phytoplankton growth rates. To this end, we used the classic Quota model and designed three approaches to calibrate its model parameters to data: where empirical observations on cell internal nitrogen quota were used to fit the model ("Nitrogen-Quota approach"), where quota dynamics were inferred only from changes in medium nutrient depletion and population density ("Virtual-Quota approach"), or where red fluorescence emission of a cell was used as an indirect proxy for its internal nitrogen quota ("Fluorescence-Quota approach"). Two separate analyses were carried out. In the first analysis, stochastic model simulations were parameterized from published empirical relationships and used to generate dynamics of phytoplankton communities reared under nitrogen-limited conditions. Quota models were fitted to the dynamics of each simulated species with the three different approaches and the performance of each model was compared. In the second analysis, we fit Quota models to laboratory time-series and we calculate the ability of each calibration approach to describe the observed trajectories of internal nitrogen quota in the culture. Results from both analyses concluded that the Fluorescence-Quota approach including per-cell red fluorescence as a proxy of internal nitrogen substantially improved the ability of Quota models to describe phytoplankton dynamics, while still accounting for the biologically important process of cell nitrogen storage. More broadly, many population models in ecology implicitly recognize the importance of accounting for storage mechanisms to describe the dynamics of individual organisms. Hence, the approach documented here with phytoplankton dynamics may also be useful for evaluating the potential of indirect proxies in other ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machines that Go 'Ping': Medical Technology and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries.

PubMed

Willemé, Peter; Dumont, Michel

2015-08-01

Technology is believed to be a major determinant of increasing health spending. The main difficulty to quantify its effect is to find suitable proxies to measure medical technological innovation. This paper's main contribution is the use of data on approved medical devices and drugs to proxy for medical technology. The effects of these variables on total real per capita health spending are estimated using a panel model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1981-2012. The results confirm the substantial cost-increasing effect of medical technology, which accounts for almost 50% of the explained historical growth of spending. Despite the overall net positive effect of technology, the effect of two subgroups of approvals on expenditure is significantly negative. These subgroups can be thought of as representing 'incremental medical innovation', whereas the positive effects are related to radically innovative pharmaceutical products and devices. A separate time series model was estimated for the USA because the FDA approval data in fact only apply to the USA, while they serve as proxies for the other OECD countries. Our empirical model includes an indicator of obesity, and estimations confirm the substantial contribution of this lifestyle variable to health spending growth in the countries studied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar measurements from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, Thomas N.

1994-01-01

The analysis of the solar spectral irradiance from the Airglow-Solar Spectrometer Instrument (ASSI) on the San Marco 5 satellite is the focus for this research grant. A pre-print copy of the paper describing the calibrations of and results from the San Marco ASSI is attached to this report. The calibration of the ASSI included (1) transfer of photometric calibration from a rocket experiment and the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME), (2) use of the on-board radioactive calibration sources, (3) validation of the ASSI sensitivity over its field of view, and (4) determining the degradation of the spectrometers. We have determined that the absolute values for the solar irradiance needs adjustment in the current proxy models of the solar UV irradiance, and the amount of solar variability from the proxy models are in reasonable agreement with the ASSI measurements. This research grant also has supported the development of a new solar EUV irradiance proxy model. We expected that the magnetic flux is responsible for most of the heating, via Alfen waves, in the chromosphere, transition region, and corona. From examining time series of solar irradiance data and magnetic fields at different levels, we did indeed find that the chromospheric emissions correlate best with the large magnetic field levels.

Planktonic foraminiferal rare earth elements as a potential new aeolian dust proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, C.; Liu, Y.; Lo, L.; Wei, K.; Shen, C.

2012-12-01

Characteristics of rare earth elements (REEs) have widely been used as important tracers in many fields of earth sciences, including lithosphere research, environmental change, ocean circulation and other natural carbonate materials. Foraminiferal test REE signatures have been suggested to reflect ambient seawater conditions and serve as valuable proxies in the fields of paleoceanography and paleoclimate. Here we present a 60-kyr planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white, 250-300 μm) REE record of a sediment core MD05-2925 (9°20.61'S, 151°27.61'E, water depth 1660 m) from the Solomon Sea. The REE diagram shows two dominant sources of local seawater and nearby terrestrial input. The variability of foraminiferal REE/Ca time series is different from Mg/Ca-inferred sea surface temperature and δ18O records during the past 60-kyr. This inconsistency suggests that planktonic foraminiferal REE content cannot result only from changes in ice volume and temperature. Synchroneity between high planktonic foraminiferal REE content and Antarctic ice core dust amount record implies the same dust sources, probably from Australia or mainland China. Our results suggest that foraminiferal REE can potentially be as a new dust proxy and record dry/humid conditions at the source area.

Toward a quantitative and empirical dissolved organic carbon budget for the Gulf of Maine, a semienclosed shelf sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balch, William; Huntington, Thomas; Aiken, George; Drapeau, David; Bowler, Bruce; Lubelczyk, Laura; Butler, Kenna

2016-02-01

A time series of organic carbon export from Gulf of Maine (GoM) watersheds was compared to a time series of biological, chemical, bio-optical, and hydrographic properties, measured across the GoM between Yarmouth, NS, Canada, and Portland, ME, U.S. Optical proxies were used to quantify the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon in the GoM. The Load Estimator regression model applied to river discharge data demonstrated that riverine DOC export (and its decadal variance) has increased over the last 80 years. Several extraordinarily wet years (2006-2010) resulted in a massive pulse of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM; proxy for DOC) into the western GoM along with unidentified optically scattering material (<0.2 µm diameter). A survey of DOC in the GoM and Scotian Shelf showed the strong influence of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence on the DOC that enters the GoM. A deep plume of CDOM-rich water was observed near the coast of Maine which decreased in concentration eastward. The Forel-Ule color scale was derived and compared to the same measurements made in 1912-1913 by Henry Bigelow. Results show that the GoM has yellowed in the last century, particularly in the region of the extension of the Eastern Maine Coastal Current. Time lags between DOC discharge and its appearance in the GoM increased with distance from the river mouths. Algae were also a significant source of DOC but not CDOM. Gulf-wide algal primary production has decreased. Increases in precipitation and DOC discharge to the GoM are predicted over the next century.

Toward a quantitative and empirical dissolved organic carbon budget for the Gulf of Maine, a semienclosed shelf sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balch, William; Huntington, Thomas G.; Aiken, George R.; Drapeau, David; Bowler, Bruce; Lubelczyk, Laura; Butler, Kenna D.

2016-01-01

A time series of organic carbon export from Gulf of Maine (GoM) watersheds was compared to a time series of biological, chemical, bio-optical, and hydrographic properties, measured across the GoM between Yarmouth, NS, Canada, and Portland, ME, U.S. Optical proxies were used to quantify the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon in the GoM. The Load Estimator regression model applied to river discharge data demonstrated that riverine DOC export (and its decadal variance) has increased over the last 80 years. Several extraordinarily wet years (2006–2010) resulted in a massive pulse of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM; proxy for DOC) into the western GoM along with unidentified optically scattering material (<0.2 μm diameter). A survey of DOC in the GoM and Scotian Shelf showed the strong influence of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence on the DOC that enters the GoM. A deep plume of CDOM-rich water was observed near the coast of Maine which decreased in concentration eastward. The Forel-Ule color scale was derived and compared to the same measurements made in 1912–1913 by Henry Bigelow. Results show that the GoM has yellowed in the last century, particularly in the region of the extension of the Eastern Maine Coastal Current. Time lags between DOC discharge and its appearance in the GoM increased with distance from the river mouths. Algae were also a significant source of DOC but not CDOM. Gulf-wide algal primary production has decreased. Increases in precipitation and DOC discharge to the GoM are predicted over the next century.

Are Remotely Sensed Trends in the Built Environment and Urban Vegetation Predictive of Changes in Metropolitan Housing Markets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endsley, K. A.

2017-12-01

In the midst of a global urbanization trend, residential neighborhoods are undergoing a variety of changes, including neighborhood turnover, the re-location of employment centers, and, recently, the increasing social and economic isolation of the suburbs. In the U.S., where residential lawns account for more area than any other irrigated crop (Polsky et al. 2014, in PNAS), coeval changes in residential populations, the built environment, and vegetation have serious implications for urban sustainability. To date, detailed studies of dynamic neighborhood changes have been hampered by the lack of fine time-series data on neighborhood composition. Most notably, the U.S. Census is conducted only once every decade leading to the likely inaccurate assumption of linear change between Census years. To the extent that human activities alter the built environment and urban ecology, can remotely sensed biophysical changes serve as a good proxy for neighborhood socio-economic changes? In this study, I apply time series data on spectral reflectance, spectral indices, and land-cover abundances from 15-to-25 years of Landsat data to fine-scale data on residential property transactions in two metropolitan areas with different regional economic and environmental contexts: Detroit and Los Angeles. The real estate record provides parcel-level, monthly data on sale prices and tax foreclosures; taken together, these provide a good description of the housing market and an acceptable proxy for neighborhood stability. By comparing lagged features from the remote sensing (RS) archive at different time scales in a non-parametric statistical learning algorithm, I identify which RS features best predict changes in the housing market and compare these associations between the two metropolitan areas and across multiple spatial and temporal scales along an urban to peri-urban gradient.

Centennial-scale links between Atlantic Ocean dynamics and hydroclimate over the last 4400 years: Insights from the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, K.; Quinn, T. M.; Okumura, Y.; Richey, J. N.; Partin, J. W.; Poore, R. Z.

2015-12-01

Surface circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is an important mediator of global climate and yet its variability is poorly constrained on centennial timescales. Changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in late Holocene climate variability in the Western Hemisphere, although the relationship between AMOC variability and hydroclimate is uncertain due to the lack of sufficiently highly resolved proxy records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) from the Garrison Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) spanning the last 4,400 years to better constrain past sea-surface conditions. We generated time series of paired Mg/Ca (SST proxy) and δ18O (SST and SSS proxy) variations in planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white variety) from three multi-cores collected in 2010. Using a Monte Carlo-based technique we produce a stacked record from the three multi-cores and constrain analytical, calibration, chronological, and sampling uncertainties. We apply this technique to existing paired Mg/Ca- δ18O studies in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean to facilitate comparison between time-uncertain proxy reconstructions. The Garrison Basin stack exhibits large centennial-scale variability (σSST~0.6°C; δ18Osw~0.17‰) and indicates a substantially cool (0.9±0.5°C) and fresh (0.26±0.1‰) Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-1850 A.D.), corroborating extant records from the Gulf of Mexico. Focusing on the last millennium, we analyze a suite of oceanic and terrestrial proxy records to demonstrate a centennial-scale link between salt advection in the Atlantic Ocean, a diagnostic parameter of ocean circulation, and hydroclimate in the adjacent continents. The ensuing multiproxy relationships seem to be consistent with spatial field correlations of limited salinity and rainfall instrumental/reanalysis data, which suggest that NGOM salinity varies with large-scale Atlantic Ocean circulation and continental precipitation. Our results imply significant centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene and are consistent with limited observational analysis indicating a slowdown of AMOC during the LIA.

Munchausen Syndrome Masquerading as Bleeding Disorder in a Group of Pediatric Patients

PubMed Central

Sridharan, Srivani; Shukla, Deepak; Mehta, Ritambhara; Oswal, Rajat

2011-01-01

This short communication is about Munchausen's syndrome in a group of pediatric patients and co morbid Munchausen's syndrome by proxy. A 7-year-old girl presented with spontaneous bleeding from forehead, eyes and scalp. The girl was investigated thoroughly by pediatricians at a tertiary care hospital in western India for all possible bleeding disorders, but there was no conclusive diagnosis. After two days, cases with similar complaints were reported among children residing in the same locality and with similar socioeconomic background. All of them were investigated in detail for possible causes of bleeding but nothing came out. There was a media reporting of the cases as a mysterious bleeding disorder. At this point of time, an expert opinion from the psychiatrist was demanded. Covert video surveillance and series of interviews revealed Munchausen's syndrome and possible Munchausen's syndrome by proxy. An in-depth literature review with special reference to Munchausen's syndrome was carried out to come to a final conclusive diagnosis. PMID:22021962

Munchausen syndrome masquerading as bleeding disorder in a group of pediatric patients.

PubMed

Sridharan, Srivani; Shukla, Deepak; Mehta, Ritambhara; Oswal, Rajat

2011-01-01

This short communication is about Munchausen's syndrome in a group of pediatric patients and co morbid Munchausen's syndrome by proxy. A 7-year-old girl presented with spontaneous bleeding from forehead, eyes and scalp. The girl was investigated thoroughly by pediatricians at a tertiary care hospital in western India for all possible bleeding disorders, but there was no conclusive diagnosis. After two days, cases with similar complaints were reported among children residing in the same locality and with similar socioeconomic background. All of them were investigated in detail for possible causes of bleeding but nothing came out. There was a media reporting of the cases as a mysterious bleeding disorder. At this point of time, an expert opinion from the psychiatrist was demanded. Covert video surveillance and series of interviews revealed Munchausen's syndrome and possible Munchausen's syndrome by proxy. An in-depth literature review with special reference to Munchausen's syndrome was carried out to come to a final conclusive diagnosis.

Solar forcing of the Indian summer monsoon variability during the Ållerød period.

PubMed

Gupta, Anil K; Mohan, Kuppusamy; Das, Moumita; Singh, Raj K

2013-09-25

Rapid climatic shifts across the last glacial to Holocene transition are pervasive feature of the North Atlantic as well as low latitude proxy archives. Our decadal to centennial scale record of summer monsoon proxy Globigerina bulloides from rapidly accumulating sediments from Hole 723A, Arabian Sea shows two distinct intervals of weak summer monsoon wind coinciding with cold periods within Ållerød inerstadial of the North Atlantic named here as IACP-A1 and IACP-A2 and dated (within dating uncertainties) at 13.5 and 13.3 calibrated kilo years before the present (cal kyr BP), respectively. Spectral analysis of the Globigerina bulloides time series for the segment 13.6-13.1 kyr (Ållerød period) reveals a strong solar 208-year cycle also known as de Vries or Suess cycle, suggesting that the centennial scale variability in Indian summer monsoon winds during the Ållerød inerstadial was driven by changes in the solar irradiance through stratospheric-tropospheric interactions.

Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Ritz, Catherine

2013-01-01

Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence of the crucial role that the ocean plays both for past and future behavior of the cryosphere suggests a climatic control of these ice surges. Here, we present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet–ice shelf model forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. The model generates a time series of iceberg discharge that closely agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka, indicating that oceanic circulation variations were responsible for the enigmatic ice purges of the last ice age. PMID:24062437

Coin hoards speak of population declines in Ancient Rome

PubMed Central

Turchin, Peter; Scheidel, Walter

2009-01-01

In times of violence, people tend to hide their valuables, which are later recovered unless the owners had been killed or driven away. Thus, the temporal distribution of unrecovered coin hoards is an excellent proxy for the intensity of internal warfare. We use this relationship to resolve a long-standing controversy in Roman history. Depending on who was counted in the early Imperial censuses (adult males or the entire citizenry including women and minors), the Roman citizen population of Italy either declined, or more than doubled, during the first century BCE. This period was characterized by a series of civil wars, and historical evidence indicates that high levels of sociopolitical instability are associated with demographic contractions. We fitted a simple model quantifying the effect of instability (proxied by hoard frequency) on population dynamics to the data before 100 BCE. The model predicts declining population after 100 BCE. This suggests that the vigorous growth scenario is highly implausible. PMID:19805043

Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markgraf, Vera; Baumgartner, T.R.; Bradbury, J.P.; Diaz, Henry F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Luckman, B.H.; Seltzer, G.O.; Swetnam, T.W.; Villalba, R.

2000-01-01

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

2010-05-01

Pollen as well as stable isotopes have great potential as climate proxy data. While variability in these proxy data is frequently assumed to reflect climate variability, other factors than climate, including human impact and statistical noise, can often not be excluded as primary cause for the observed variability. Multiproxy studies offer the opportunity to test different drivers by providing different lines of evidence for environmental change such as climate variability and human impact. In this multiproxy study we use pollen and peat humification to evaluate to which extent stable oxygen and carbon isotope series from the peat bog "Dürres Maar" reflect human impact rather than climate variability. For times before strong anthropogenic vegetation change, isotope series from Dürres Maar were used to validate quantitative reconstructions based on pollen. Our study site is the kettle hole peat bog "Dürres Maar" in the Eifel low mountain range, Germany (450m asl), which grew 12m during the last 10,000 years. Pollen was analysed with a sum of at least 1000 terrestrial pollen grains throughout the profile to minimize statistical effects on the reconstructions. A recently developed probabilistic indicator taxa method ("pdf-method") was used for the quantitative climate estimates (January and July temperature) based on pollen. For isotope analysis, attention was given to use monospecific Sphagnum leaves whenever possible, reducing the potential of a species effect and any potential artefact that can originate from selective degradation of different morphological parts of Sphagnum plants (Moschen et al., 2009). Pollen at "Dürres Maar" reflect the variable and partly strong human impact on vegetation during the last 4000 years. Stable isotope time series were apparently not influenced by human impact at this site. This highlights the potential of stable isotope investigations from peat for climatic interpretation, because stable isotope series from lacustrine sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

Linking the isotopic composition of monthly precipitation, cave drip water and tree ring cellulose - 15 years of monitoring and data-model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labuhn, Inga; Genty, Dominique; Daux, Valérie; Bourges, François; Hoffmann, Georg

2013-04-01

The isotopic composition of proxies used for palaeoclimate reconstruction, like tree ring cellulose or speleothem calcite, is controlled to a large extent by the isotopic composition of precipitation. In order to calibrate and interpret these proxies in terms of climate, it is necessary to study water isotopes in rainfall and their link with the proxies' source water. We present 10 to 15-year series of stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in monthly precipitation from three sites in the south of France, along with corresponding REMOiso model simulations, a monitoring of cave drip water from two of these sites (Villars cave in the south-west and Chauvet cave in the south-east), as well as measurements of oxygen isotopes in tree ring cellulose from oak trees growing in the same area. The isotopic composition of monthly precipitation at the three sites displays a typical annual cycle. At the south-west sites, under Atlantic influence, the interannual variability is much more pronounced during the winter months than during the summer, whereas the south-eastern Mediterranean site shows the same variability throughout the year. The model simulations are able to reproduce the annual cycle of monthly precipitation δ18O as well as the intra-seasonal variability. Compared to the data, however, the modelled average isotopic values and the seasonal amplitude are overestimated. Correlations between temperature and precipitation δ18O are generally weak at all our sites, on both the monthly and the annual scale, even when using temperature averages weighted by the amount of precipitation. Consequently, a proxy which is controlled by the δ18O of precipitation cannot be directly interpreted in terms of temperature in this region. The isotopic composition of cave drip water in both caves remains stable throughout the monitoring period. By calculating different weighted averages of precipitation δ18O for time periods ranging from months to years, we demonstrate that the cave drip water isotopic composition is the result of several years of rainfall mixing. The precipitation of every month must be considered in order to attain the drip water values, which means that rain water infiltrates throughout the year. There is no modification of the soil water isotopic composition by evaporation and no seasonal bias introduced by transpiring plants; they use water from reserves which represents several months or years of mixing. For the interpretation of tree ring cellulose δ18O, this implies that - at least for the monitoring period of 15 years - the source water signal is more or less constant. Therefore, the variability of cellulose δ18O must be mainly due to evaporation at the leaf level, which is strongly dependent on summer temperature. Insights on the variability and temperature correlations of stable isotopes in precipitation and on the origin and composition of cave drip water are important for the interpretation of proxies. Long-term monitoring is needed for model validation, and the locally validated and corrected model can provide longer time series for a reliable proxy calibration.

Pliocene Seasonality along the US Atlantic Coastal Plain Inferred from Growth Increment Analysis of Mercenaria carolinensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelstern, I. Z.; Surge, D. M.

2010-12-01

Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) data from the US Atlantic coastal plain is currently insufficient for a detailed understanding of the climatic shifts that occurred during the period. Previous studies, based on oxygen isotope proxy data from marine shells and bryozoan zooid size analysis, have provided constraints on possible annual-scale SST ranges for the region. However, more data are required to fully understand the forcing mechanisms affecting regional Pliocene climate and evaluate modeled temperature projections. Bivalve sclerochronology (growth increment analysis) is an alternative proxy for SST that can provide annually resolved multi-year time series. The method has been validated in previous studies using modern Arctica, Chione, and Mercenaria. We analyzed Pliocene Mercenaria carolinensis shells using sclerochronologic methods and tested the hypothesis that higher SST ranges are reflected in shells selected from the warmest climate interval (3.5-3.3 Ma, upper Yorktown Formation, Virginia) and lower SST ranges are observable in shells selected from the subsequent cooling interval (2.4-1.8 Ma, Chowan River Formation, North Carolina). These results further establish the validity of growth increment analysis using fossil shells and provide the first large dataset (from the region) of reconstructed annual SST from floating time series during these intervals. These data will enhance our knowledge about a warm climate state that has been identified in the 2007 IPCC report as an analogue for expected global warming. Future work will expand this study to include sampling in Florida to gain detailed information about Pliocene SST along a latitudinal gradient.

Centennial-scale winter climate variability over the last two millennia in the northern Gulf of Mexico based on paired δ18O and Mg/Ca in Globorotalia truncatulinoides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortiz, V.; Thirumalai, K.; Richey, J. N.; Quinn, T. M.

2014-12-01

We present a replicated record of paired foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca variations in multi-cores collected from the Garrison Basin (26º43'N, 93º55'W) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Using δ18O (sea surface temperature, SST; sea surface salinity, SSS proxy) and Mg/Ca (SST proxy) variations in non-encrusted planktic foraminifer Globorotalia truncatulinoides we produce time series spanning the last two millennia that is characterized by centennial-scale climate variability. We interpret geochemical variations in G. truncatulinoides to reflect winter climate variability because data from a sediment trap, located ~350 km east of the core site, reveal that annual flux of G. truncatulinoides is heavily weighted towards winter (peak production in January-February; Spear et al., 2011). Similar centennial-scale variability is also observed in the foraminiferal geochemistry of Globigerinoides ruber in the same multi-cores, which likely reflect mean annual climate variations. Our replicated results and comparisons to other SST reconstructions from the region lend confidence that the northern GOM surface ocean underwent large, centennial-scale variability, most likely dominated by changes in winter climate. This variability occurred in a time period where climate forcing is small and background conditions are similar to pre-industrial times. References: Spear, J.W.; Poore, R.Z., and Quinn, T.M., 2011, Globorotalia truncatulinoides (dextral) Mg/Ca as a proxy for Gulf of Mexico winter mixed-layer temperature: Evidence from a sediment trap in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Micropaleontology, 80, 53-61.

Elucidating the association between the self-harm inventory and several borderline personality measures in an inpatient psychiatric sample.

PubMed

Sellbom, Martin; Sansone, Randy A; Songer, Douglas A

2017-09-01

The current study evaluated the utility of the self-harm inventory (SHI) as a proxy for and screening measure of borderline personality disorder (BPD) using several diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM)-based BPD measures as criteria. We used a sample of 145 psychiatric inpatients, who completed the SHI and a series of well-validated, DSM-based self-report measures of BPD. Using a series of latent trait and latent class analyses, we found that the SHI was substantially associated with a latent construct representing BPD, as well as differentiated latent classes of 'high' vs. 'low' BPD, with good accuracy. The SHI can serve as proxy for and a good screening measure for BPD, but future research needs to replicate these findings using structured interview-based measurement of BPD.

The Dust Bowl in the American West: A geochemical record of dust provenance and deposition in the Upper Fremont Glacier ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrus, C. F. T.; Bassett, C.; Black, H. D.; Payne, T. N.

2016-12-01

Several recent studies demonstrate that nitrogen isotope analysis of the organic fraction of mollusk shells can serve as a proxy for anthropogenic environmental impacts, including sewage input into estuaries. Analysis of δ15N in shells from archaeological sites permits construction of time-series proxy data from the present day to pre-industrial times, yielding insight into the history of some human environmental influences such as waste input and land use changes. Most such studies utilize a single bulk analysis per valve, combining shell material grown over time periods of one or more years. However, large, fast-growing species (e.g. some scallops and abalone) may permit sub-annual sampling, potentially yielding insight into seasonal processes. Such sclerochronological sampling of archaeological shells may enable researchers to detect variation at a finer temporal scale than has been attempted to date, which in turn may facilitate analysis of seasonal resource procurement strategies and related actions. This presentation will incorporate new and published data from the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America to assess how sclerochronological δ15N data can be useful to better understand pre-industrial human-environmental interaction and change, and also address diagenesis and other preservational concerns commonly found in archaeological samples.

Nitrogen Isotope Analyses in Mollusk Shell: Applications to Environmental Sciences and Archaeology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrus, C. F. T.; Bassett, C.; Black, H. D.; Payne, T. N.

2017-12-01

Several recent studies demonstrate that nitrogen isotope analysis of the organic fraction of mollusk shells can serve as a proxy for anthropogenic environmental impacts, including sewage input into estuaries. Analysis of δ15N in shells from archaeological sites permits construction of time-series proxy data from the present day to pre-industrial times, yielding insight into the history of some human environmental influences such as waste input and land use changes. Most such studies utilize a single bulk analysis per valve, combining shell material grown over time periods of one or more years. However, large, fast-growing species (e.g. some scallops and abalone) may permit sub-annual sampling, potentially yielding insight into seasonal processes. Such sclerochronological sampling of archaeological shells may enable researchers to detect variation at a finer temporal scale than has been attempted to date, which in turn may facilitate analysis of seasonal resource procurement strategies and related actions. This presentation will incorporate new and published data from the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coasts of North America to assess how sclerochronological δ15N data can be useful to better understand pre-industrial human-environmental interaction and change, and also address diagenesis and other preservational concerns commonly found in archaeological samples.

Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bills, Bruce G.

1992-01-01

Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

Modeling Sea-Level Change using Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. To accurately estimate rates of sea-level change and reliably compare tide-gauge compilations with proxy reconstructions it is necessary to account for the uncertainties that characterize each dataset. Many previous studies used simple linear regression models (most commonly polynomial regression) resulting in overly precise rate estimates. The model we propose uses an integrated Gaussian process approach, where a Gaussian process prior is placed on the rate of sea-level change and the data itself is modeled as the integral of this rate process. The non-parametric Gaussian process model is known to be well suited to modeling time series data. The advantage of using an integrated Gaussian process is that it allows for the direct estimation of the derivative of a one dimensional curve. The derivative at a particular time point will be representative of the rate of sea level change at that time point. The tide gauge and proxy data are complicated by multiple sources of uncertainty, some of which arise as part of the data collection exercise. Most notably, the proxy reconstructions include temporal uncertainty from dating of the sediment core using techniques such as radiocarbon. As a result of this, the integrated Gaussian process model is set in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework so as to take account of this temporal uncertainty. The data must be corrected for land-level change known as glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) as it is important to isolate the climate-related sea-level signal. The correction for GIA introduces covariance between individual age and sea level observations into the model. The proposed integrated Gaussian process model allows for the estimation of instantaneous rates of sea-level change and accounts for all available sources of uncertainty in tide-gauge and proxy-reconstruction data. Our response variable is sea level after correction for GIA. By embedding the integrated process in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework, and removing the estimate of GIA, we can quantify rates with better estimates of uncertainty than previously possible. The model provides a flexible fit and enables us to estimate rates of change at any given time point, thus observing how rates have been evolving from the past to present day.

12 CFR 563b.255 - What must the form of proxy include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... proxy include? The form of proxy must include all of the following: (a) A statement in bold face type... separately. (d) The phrase “Revocable Proxy” in bold face type (at least 18 point). (e) A description of any... the member received a proxy statement before he or she signed the form of proxy. (g) The date, time...

Analysis of Forgery Attack on One-Time Proxy Signature and the Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tian-Yin; Wei, Zong-Li

2016-02-01

In a recent paper, Yang et al. (Quant. Inf. Process. 13(9), 2007-2016, 2014) analyzed the security of one-time proxy signature scheme Wang and Wei (Quant. Inf. Process. 11(2), 455-463, 2012) and pointed out that it cannot satisfy the security requirements of unforgeability and undeniability because an eavesdropper Eve can forge a valid proxy signature on a message chosen by herself. However, we find that the so-called proxy message-signature pair forged by Eve is issued by the proxy signer in fact, and anybody can obtain it as a requester, which means that the forgery attack is not considered as a successful attack. Therefore, the conclusion that this scheme cannot satisfy the security requirements of proxy signature against forging and denying is not appropriate in this sense. Finally, we study the reason for the misunderstanding and clarify the security requirements for proxy signatures.

The 500-year temperature and precipitation fluctuations in the Czech Lands derived from documentary evidence and instrumental measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert

2010-05-01

Series of temperature and precipitation indices (in ordinal scale) based on interpretation of various sources of documentary evidence (e.g. narrative written reports, visual daily weather records, personal correspondence, special prints, official economic records, etc.) are used as predictors in the reconstruction of mean seasonal temperatures and seasonal precipitation totals for the Czech Lands from A.D. 1500. Long instrumental measurements from 1771 (temperatures) and 1805 (precipitation) are used as a target values to calibrate and verify documentary-based index series. Reconstruction is based on linear regression with variance and mean adjustments. Reconstructed series were compared with similar European documentary-based reconstructions as well as with reconstructions based on different natural proxies. Reconstructed series were analyzed with respect to trends on different time-scales and occurrence of extreme values. We discuss uncertainties typical for documentary evidence from historical archives. Besides the fact that reports on weather and climate in documentary archives cover all seasons, our reconstructions provide the best results for winter temperatures and summer precipitation. However, explained variance for these seasons is comparable to other existing reconstructions for Central Europe.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Vieten, R.

2015-12-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most-recently published AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years with a time lag of 10-20 years. The time lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Over the past 600 years there are two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values lasting several decades in our speleothem record. They are centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters. This may be a precursor of conditions now and to come.

A 481-year chronology of oak earlywood vessels as an age-independent climatic proxy in NW Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto-Herrero, Manuel; Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio

2017-08-01

The earlywood vessels of ring-porous trees can be analyzed dendrochronologically and used as a proxy for environmental information. However, most works deal with the analysis of contemporary climate-growth relationships and do not evaluate their long-term variation. We obtained a 481-year chronology of earlywood vessel size of oak (Quercus robur L.) in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula, investigated its behavior through time, and compared it to a chronology of younger trees developed at the same site. We expressed earlywood vessel size as the hydraulically-weighted diameter (DH) and discriminated between vessels in the first row (r1) and the rest of the vessels (nr1); radial increment was assessed from latewood width (LW). Climate-growth relationships were strong and nearly identical for both age classes. Spring temperature positively affected vessel size, but only for the first row, probably mediating the onset of cambial activity. The chronology of old trees showed an almost flat age trend, except for the first decades, and series were not affected by stand dynamics. In contrast, LW had a weak response to climate, probably because of the high impact of abrupt growth changes. There was a high negative correlation between DH and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), which was unstable during the 20th century. To our knowledge, this is the longest chronology of earlywood vessel size obtained to date, and offers promising results, as this proxy is shown to be independent of age and forest disturbances, and was strongly correlated to climate across long time spans.

An experimental 392-year documentary-based multi-proxy (vine and grain) reconstruction of May-July temperatures for Kőszeg, West-Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Wilson, Rob; Bariska, István

2011-07-01

In this paper, we present a 392-year-long preliminary temperature reconstruction for western Hungary. The reconstructed series is based on five vine- and grain-related historical phenological series from the town of Kőszeg. We apply dendrochronological methods for both signal assessment of the phenological series and the resultant temperature reconstruction. As a proof of concept, the present reconstruction explains 57% of the temperature variance of May-July Budapest mean temperatures and is well verified with coefficient of efficiency values in excess of 0.45. The developed temperature reconstruction portrays warm conditions during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries with a period of cooling until the coldest reconstructed period centred around 1815, which was followed by a period of warming until the 1860s. The phenological evidence analysed here represent an important data source from which non-biased estimates of past climate can be derived that may provide information at all possible time-scales.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

2007-10-01

Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence for climate change or nonstationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record.

Historical evidence for nature disconnection in a 70-year time series of Disney animated films.

PubMed

Prévot-Julliard, Anne-Caroline; Julliard, Romain; Clayton, Susan

2015-08-01

The assumed ongoing disconnection between humans and nature in Western societies represents a profoundly challenging conservation issue. Here, we demonstrate one manifestation of this nature disconnection, via an examination of the representation of natural settings in a 70-year time series of Disney animated films. We found that natural settings are increasingly less present as a representation of outdoor environments in these films. Moreover, these drawn natural settings tend to be more and more human controlled and are less and less complex in terms of the biodiversity they depict. These results demonstrate the increasing nature disconnection of the filmmaking teams, which we consider as a proxy of the Western relation to nature. Additionally, because nature experience of children is partly based on movies, the depleted representation of biodiversity in outdoor environments of Disney films may amplify the current disconnection from nature for children. This reduction in exposure to nature may hinder the implementation of biodiversity conservation measures. © The Author(s) 2014.

Water isotope systematics: Improving our palaeoclimate interpretations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, M. D.; Dee, S.; Anderson, L.; Baker, A.; Bowen, G.; Noone, D.

2016-01-01

The stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, measured in a variety of archives, are widely used proxies in Quaternary Science. Understanding the processes that control δ18O change have long been a focus of research (e.g. Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Talbot, 1990 ; Leng, 2006). Both the dynamics of water isotope cycling and the appropriate interpretation of geological water-isotope proxy time series remain subjects of active research and debate. It is clear that achieving a complete understanding of the isotope systematics for any given archive type, and ideally each individual archive, is vital if these palaeo-data are to be used to their full potential, including comparison with climate model experiments of the past. Combining information from modern monitoring and process studies, climate models, and proxy data is crucial for improving our statistical constraints on reconstructions of past climate variability.As climate models increasingly incorporate stable water isotope physics, this common language should aid quantitative comparisons between proxy data and climate model output. Water-isotope palaeoclimate data provide crucial metrics for validating GCMs, whereas GCMs provide a tool for exploring the climate variability dominating signals in the proxy data. Several of the studies in this set of papers highlight how collaborations between palaeoclimate experimentalists and modelers may serve to expand the usefulness of palaeoclimate data for climate prediction in future work.This collection of papers follows the session on Water Isotope Systematics held at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. Papers in that session, the breadth of which are represented here, discussed such issues as; understanding sub-GNIP scale (Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation, (IAEA/WMO, 2006)) variability in isotopes in precipitation from different regions, detailed examination of the transfer of isotope signals from precipitation to geological archives, and the implications of advances in understanding in these areas for the interpretation of palaeo records and proxy data – climate model comparison.Here, we briefly review these areas of research, and discuss challenges for the water isotope community in improving our ability to partition climate vs. auxiliary signals in palaeoclimate data.

The long-term changes in total ozone, as derived from Dobson measurements at Arosa (1948-2001)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyscin, J. W.

2003-04-01

The longest possible total ozone time series (Arosa, Switzerland) is examined for a detection of trends. Two-step procedure is proposed to estimate the long-term (decadal) variations in the ozone time series. The first step consists of a standard least-squares multiple regression applied to the total ozone monthly means to parameterize "natural" (related to the oscillations in the atmospheric dynamics) variations in the analyzed time series. The standard proxies for the dynamical ozone variations are used including; the 11-year solar activity cycle, and indices of QBO, ENSO and NAO. We use the detrended time series of temperature at 100 hPa and 500 hPa over Arosa to parameterize short-term variations (with time periods<1 year) in total ozone related to local changes in the meteorological conditions over the station. The second step consists of a smooth-curve fitting to the total ozone residuals (original minus modeled "natural" time series), the time derivation applied to this curve to obtain local trends, and bootstrapping of the residual time series to estimate the standard error of local trends. Locally weighted regression and the wavelet analysis methodology are used to extract the smooth component out of the residual time series. The time integral over the local trend values provides the cumulative long-term change since the data beginning. Examining the pattern of the cumulative change we see the periods with total ozone loss (the end of 50s up to early 60s - probably the effect of the nuclear bomb tests), recovery (mid 60s up to beginning of 70s), apparent decrease (beginning of 70s lasting to mid 90s - probably the effect of the atmosphere contamination by anthropogenic substances containing chlorine), and with a kind of stabilization or recovery (starting in the mid of 90s - probably the effect of the Montreal protocol to eliminate substances reducing the ozone layer). We can also estimate that a full ozone recovery (return to the undisturbed total ozone level from the beginning of 70s) is expected around 2050. We propose to calculate both time series of local trends and the cumulative long-term change instead single trend value derived as a slope of straight line fit to the data.

Hilbert-Huang Transform: A Spectral Analysis Tool Applied to Sunspot Number and Total Solar Irradiance Variations, as well as Near-Surface Atmospheric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, B. L.; Eichinger, W. E.; Prueger, J. H.

2010-12-01

Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) is a relatively new data analysis tool which is used to analyze nonstationary and nonlinear time series data. It consists of an algorithm, called empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which extracts the cyclic components embedded within time series data, as well as Hilbert spectral analysis (HSA) which displays the time and frequency dependent energy contributions from each component in the form of a spectrogram. The method can be considered a generalized form of Fourier analysis which can describe the intrinsic cycles of data with basis functions whose amplitudes and phases may vary with time. The HHT will be introduced and compared to current spectral analysis tools such as Fourier analysis, short-time Fourier analysis, wavelet analysis and Wigner-Ville distributions. A number of applications are also presented which demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the tool, including analyzing sunspot number variability and total solar irradiance proxies as well as global averaged temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. Also, near-surface atmospheric quantities such as temperature and wind velocity are analyzed to demonstrate the nonstationarity of the atmosphere.

Understanding changes over time in workers' compensation claim rates using time series analytical techniques.

PubMed

Moore, Ian C; Tompa, Emile

2011-11-01

The objective of this study is to better understand the inter-temporal variation in workers' compensation claim rates using time series analytical techniques not commonly used in the occupational health and safety literature. We focus specifically on the role of unemployment rates in explaining claim rate variations. The major components of workers' compensation claim rates are decomposed using data from a Canadian workers' compensation authority for the period 1991-2007. Several techniques are used to undertake the decomposition and assess key factors driving rates: (i) the multitaper spectral estimator, (ii) the harmonic F test, (iii) the Kalman smoother and (iv) ordinary least squares. The largest component of the periodic behaviour in workers' compensation claim rates is seasonal variation. Business cycle fluctuations in workers' compensation claim rates move inversely to unemployment rates. The analysis suggests that workers' compensation claim rates between 1991 and 2008 were driven by (in order of magnitude) a strong negative long term growth trend, periodic seasonal trends and business cycle fluctuations proxied by the Ontario unemployment rate.

Geochemical and geophysical examination of submarine groundwater discharge and associated nutrient loading estimates into Lynch Cove, Hood Canal, WA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swarzenski, P.W.; Simonds, F.W.; Paulson, A.J.; Kruse, S.; Reich, C.

2007-01-01

Geochemical tracer data (i.e., 222Rn and four naturally occurring Ra isotopes), electromagnetic (EM) seepage meter results, and high-resolution, stationary electrical resistivity images were used to examine the bi-directional (i.e., submarine groundwater discharge and recharge) exchange of a coastal aquifer with seawater. Our study site for these experiments was Lynch Cove, the terminus of Hood Canal, WA, where fjord-like conditions dramatically limit water column circulation that can lead to recurring summer-time hypoxic events. In such a system a precise nutrient budget may be particularly sensitive to groundwater-derived nutrient loading. Shore-perpendicular time-series subsurface resistivity profiles show clear, decimeter-scale tidal modulation of the coastal aquifer in response to large, regional hydraulic gradients, hydrologically transmissive glacial terrain, and large (4-5 m) tidal amplitudes. A 5-day 222Rn time-series shows a strong inverse covariance between 222Rn activities (0.5−29 dpm L-1) and water level fluctuations, and provides compelling evidence for tidally modulated exchange of groundwater across the sediment/water interface. Mean Rn-derived submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) rates of 85 ± 84 cm d-1 agree closely in the timing and magnitude with EM seepage meter results that showed discharge during low tide and recharge during high tide events. To evaluate the importance of fresh versus saline SGD, Rn-derived SGD rates (as a proxy of total SGD) were compared to excess 226Ra-derived SGD rates (as a proxy for the saline contribution of SGD). The calculated SGD rates, which include a significant (>80%) component of recycled seawater, are used to estimate associated nutrient (NH4+, Si, PO43-, NO3 + NO2, TDN) loads to Lynch Cove. The dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = NH4 + NO2 + NO3) SGD loading estimate of 5.9 × 104 mol d-1 is 1−2 orders of magnitude larger than similar estimates derived from atmospheric deposition and surface water runoff, respectively.

Reconstructing coastal environmental condition in the eastern Norwegian Sea by means of Arctica islandica sclerochronological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofimova, Tamara; Andersson, Carin

2015-04-01

Paleo archives are fundament in improving our knowledge of the natural climate variability. Established marine proxy records for the ocean, especially for high latitudes, are both sparsely distributed and are poorly resolved in time. The identification and development of new archives and proxies for studying key ocean processes at annual to sub-annual resolution that can extend the marine instrumental record is therefore a clear priority for marine climate science. The bivalve species Arctica islandica is a unique paleoclimatic archive with an exceptional longevity combined with high temporal resolution, due to accretion of annual growth increments. The aim of this study is to use sclerochronological records of A. islandica to extend instrumental hydrographic records and increase our understanding of a variability of a Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC). The NCC transports warm, low-salinity water northwards, which eventually plays role for the Arctic halocline. Moreover, previous investigations showed the connection of properties and variability of the NCC with catches of commercially valuable fishes. The knowledge of the variability of the NCC is also essential for possible future prediction climate conditions and fish stock variability in the region. In this study we use shells of Arctica islandica collected off the coast of Eggum (Lofoten, Norway). The material was obtained from the depth 5-10 m by dredging along the seabed and by means of scuba divers. We examine the growth patterns of living and subfossil shells. Ongoing work mainly focuses on the construction of a composite growth chronology based on increment-width time series. The results we will compare with existing time series of the environment and climatic parameters to determine the controlling factors and test the applicability of growth chronology in a climate reconstruction. Furthermore, we will perform geochemical analyses of the stable isotope composition (δ18O and δ13C) in shell carbonate to identify seasonal signals and reconstruct the surface water temperature on a sub-annual time-scale.

Multiscale combination of climate model simulations and proxy records over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Tian, Qinhua

2018-05-01

To highlight the compatibility of climate model simulation and proxy reconstruction at different timescales, a timescale separation merging method combining proxy records and climate model simulations is presented. Annual mean surface temperature anomalies for the last millennium (851-2005 AD) at various scales over the land of the Northern Hemisphere were reconstructed with 2° × 2° spatial resolution, using an optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. All target series were decomposed using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method followed by power spectral analysis. Four typical components were obtained at inter-annual, decadal, multidecadal, and centennial timescales. A total of 323 temperature-sensitive proxy chronologies were incorporated after screening for each component. By scaling the proxy components using variance matching and applying a localized OI algorithm to all four components point by point, we obtained merged surface temperatures. Independent validation indicates that the most significant improvement was for components at the inter-annual scale, but this became less evident with increasing timescales. In mid-latitude land areas, 10-30% of grids were significantly corrected at the inter-annual scale. By assimilating the proxy records, the merged results reduced the gap in response to volcanic forcing between a pure reconstruction and simulation. Difficulty remained in verifying the centennial information and quantifying corresponding uncertainties, so additional effort should be devoted to this aspect in future research.

Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romps, David M.; Seeley, Jacob T.; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

2014-11-01

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century.

An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

2017-04-01

Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

Distilling allometric and environmental information from time series of conduit size: the standardization issue and its relationship to tree hydraulic architecture.

PubMed

Carrer, Marco; von Arx, Georg; Castagneri, Daniele; Petit, Giai

2015-01-01

Trees are among the best natural archives of past environmental information. Xylem anatomy preserves information related to tree allometry and ecophysiological performance, which is not available from the more customary ring-width or wood-density proxy parameters. Recent technological advances make tree-ring anatomy very attractive because time frames of many centuries can now be covered. This calls for the proper treatment of time series of xylem anatomical attributes. In this article, we synthesize current knowledge on the biophysical and physiological mechanisms influencing the short- to long-term variation in the most widely used wood-anatomical feature, namely conduit size. We also clarify the strong mechanistic link between conduit-lumen size, tree hydraulic architecture and height growth. Among the key consequences of these biophysical constraints is the pervasive, increasing trend of conduit size during ontogeny. Such knowledge is required to process time series of anatomical parameters correctly in order to obtain the information of interest. An appropriate standardization procedure is fundamental when analysing long tree-ring-related chronologies. When dealing with wood-anatomical parameters, this is even more critical. Only an interdisciplinary approach involving ecophysiology, wood anatomy and dendrochronology will help to distill the valuable information about tree height growth and past environmental variability correctly. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evolution of the Climate Continuum from the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum to the Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswasereelert, W.; Meyers, S. R.; Hinnov, L. A.; Kelly, D.

2011-12-01

The recognition of orbital rhythms in paleoclimate data has led to a rich understanding of climate evolution during the Neogene and Quaternary. In contrast, changes in stochastic variability associated with the transition from unipolar to bipolar glaciation have received less attention, although the stochastic component likely preserves key insights about climate. In this study, we seek to evaluate the dominance and character of stochastic climate energy since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (~17 Ma). These analyses extend a previous study that suggested diagnostic stochastic responses associated with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet development during the Plio-Pleistocene (Meyers and Hinnov, 2010). A critical and challenging step necessary to conduct the work is the conversion of depth data to time data. We investigate climate proxy datasets using multiple time scale hypotheses, including depth-derived time scales, sedimentologic/geochemical "tuning", minimal orbital tuning, and comprehensive orbital tuning. To extract the stochastic component of climate, and also explore potential relationships between the orbital parameters and paleoclimate response, a number of approaches rooted in Thomson's (1982) multi-taper spectral method (MTM) are applied. Importantly, the MTM technique is capable of separating the spectral "continuum" - a measure of stochastic variability - from the deterministic periodic orbital signals (spectral "lines") preserved in proxy data. Time series analysis of the proxy records using different chronologic approaches allows us to evaluate the sensitivity of our conclusion about stochastic and deterministic orbital processes during the Middle Miocene to present. Moreover, comparison of individual records permits examination of the spatial dependence of the identified climate responses. Meyers, S.R., and Hinnov, L.A. (2010), Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise: Paleoceanography, 25, PA3207, doi:10.1029/2009PA001834. Thomson, D.J. (1982), Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis: IEEE Proceedings, v. 70, p. 1055-1096.

Sr/Ca proxy sea-surface temperature reconstructions from modern and holocene Montastraea faveolata specimens from the Dry Tortugas National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.

2013-01-01

Sr/Ca ratios from skeletal samples from two Montastraea faveolata corals (one modern, one Holocene, ~6 Ka) from the Dry Tortugas National Park were measured as a proxy for sea-surface temperature (SST). We sampled coral specimens with a computer-driven triaxial micromilling machine, which yielded an average of 15 homogenous samples per annual growth increment. We regressed Sr/Ca values from resulting powdered samples against a local SST record to obtain a calibration equation of Sr/Ca = -0.0392 SST + 10.205, R = -0.97. The resulting calibration was used to generate a 47-year modern (1961-2008) and a 7-year Holocene (~6 Ka) Sr/Ca subannually resolved proxy record of SST. The modern M. faveolata yields well-defined annual Sr/Ca cycles ranging in amplitude from ~0.3 and 0.5 mmol/mol. The amplitude of ~0.3 to 0.5 mmol/mol equates to a 10-15°C seasonal SST amplitude, which is consistent with available local instrumental records. Summer maxima proxy SSTs calculated from the modern coral Sr/ Ca tend to be fairly stable: most SST maxima from 1961–2008 are 29°C ± 1°C. In contrast, winter minimum SST calculated in the 47-year modern time-series are highly variable, with a cool interval in the early to mid-1970s. The Holocene (~6 Ka) Montastraea faveolata coral also yields distinct annual Sr/Ca cycles with amplitudes ranging from ~0.3 to 0.6 mmol/mol. Absolute Sr/Ca values and thus resulting SST estimates over the ~7-year long record are similar to those from the modern coral. We conclude that Sr/Ca from Montastraea faveolata has high potential for developing subannually resolved Holocene SST records.

Stalagmite high resolution local paleoclimatic proxies for Late Holocene in Mesoamerica: Exploring role of moisture upon the development of Mesoamerican cultures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez Izquierdo, H. B.; Bernal, J. P.; Pérez Enriquez, R.; Böhnel, H.; Morales-Malacara, J. B.; Solari, L.; Gómez-Tuena, A.

2010-03-01

The relationship between climate change and culture development in Mesoamerica is complex to unravel since many written archives were destroyed during natural disasters and cultural conflicts such as Spanish conquest. Local paleoclimate records offer a way to reconstruct this relationship. Stalagmites are amongst the most reliable records of past climate variability, due to their evolution in closed-system conditions, ease of dating, and inclusion of several geochemical proxies (such as calcite oxygen and carbon isotopic composition, trace element concentration and/or elemental ratios, color and grey-tone scale). Recently, stalagmites have been used as records to explore the climatic change during Holocene and its cultural relation in Mediterranean, Asian, North American and east African cultures. Only few works were made, however, for Mesoamerican cultures. We study here a banded stalagmite belonging to Jalpan, Queretaro, central Mexico. This stalagmite was found actively growing, with its base dated at 6.85 +/- 0.3 Ka B.P. A high resolution LA-ICP-MS Mg/Ca analysis as well as grey tone analysis were obtained in order to create annual resolution time series. The proxies were correlated with local and north Atlantic paleoclimate records. Such proxies also show signals associated with volcanic eruptions (Tacana, el Chichon, Popocatepetl and Ceboruco) during the Classic period. Other signals are associated with Maya civilization collapse. These results portray the relationship between the agricultural and population patterns with moisture variability for the center of Mexico (Teotihuacan influence zone) during late Formative and Classic period. Finally, we observe patterns such as the corresponding to the little ice age and the anthropogenic climate warming, the latter correlated with local precipitation data.

Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change.

PubMed

Kobashi, Takuro; Menviel, Laurie; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Vinther, Bo M; Box, Jason E; Muscheler, Raimund; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Pfister, Patrik L; Döring, Michael; Leuenberger, Markus; Wanner, Heinz; Ohmura, Atsumu

2017-05-03

Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K + and Na + ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ 18 O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

The Urbino Summer School in Paleoclimatology: Investing in the future of paleoclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schellenberg, S. A.; Galeotti, S.; Brinkhuis, H.; Leckie, R. M.

2010-12-01

Improving our understanding of global climate dynamics is increasingly critical as we continue to perturb the Earth system on geologically rapid time-scales. One approach is the modeling of climate dynamics; another is the exploitation of natural archives of climate history. To promote the synergistic integration of these approaches in the next generation of paleoclimatologists, a group of international teacher-scholars have developed the Urbino Summer School in Paleoclimatology (USSP), which has been offered since 2004 at the Università degli Studi di Urbino in Urbino, Italy. The USSP provides international graduate students with an intensive three-week experience in reconstructing the history and dynamics of climate through an integrated series of lectures, investigations, and field and laboratory analyses. Complementing these formal components, informal scientific discussions and collaborations are promoted among faculty and students through group meals, coffee breaks, socials, and evening presentations. The first week begins with a broad overview of climate history and dynamics, and then focuses on the principles and methods that transform geographically- and materially-diverse data into globally time-ordinated paleoclimatic information. Lectures largely serve as “connective tissue” for student-centered investigations that use ocean drilling data and student-collected field data from the spectacular exposures of the surrounding Umbre-Marche Basin. The second week provides sessions and investigations on various biotic and geochemical proxies, and marks the start of student “working groups,” each of whom focus on current understanding of, and outstanding questions regarding, a particular geologic time-interval. Parallel sessions also commence, wherein students self-select to attend one of three concurrently-offered more specialized topics. The third week is an intensive exploration of geochemical, climate, and ocean modeling that stresses the integration of paleoclimate modeling and proxy data. The third week also includes the “Cioppino” conference comprised of lectures by experts from various fields that presenting “new and exciting ideas for digestion.” The course concludes with a series of lectures, discussion, and student presentations examining the relevance of paleoclimate to understanding modern climate dynamics and anthropogenic impacts. Student costs are increasingly being reduced per capita through governmental/institutional underwriting and individually through competitive awards (e.g., recent NSF USSP scholarships). Based on student and faculty evaluations, the current USSP structure appears largely optimized for our initial goal of promoting the integration of paleoclimate proxy data and modeling. Current planning efforts focus on strengthening course connections to Anthropocene issues and managing the large number of international faculty who donate their time and energy as an investment in the future of paleoclimatology.

Agency elicits body-ownership: proprioceptive drift toward a synchronously acting external proxy.

PubMed

Asai, Tomohisa

2016-05-01

Awareness of our own bodies (sense of body-ownership) and actions (sense of agency) is fundamental for self-consciousness. In the rubber hand illusion, watching a rubber hand being stroked synchronously as one's own unseen hand is also stroked causes the observer to attribute the rubber hand to their own body. The findings of the series of experiments reported here suggest that body-ownership, measured using proprioceptive drift, is elicited by the external acting proxy that drives the sense of agency. While participants clasped and unclasped their left hand for 60 s, they focused on video feedback on a monitor in front of them. Proprioceptive drift was observed only under the conditions, including synchronized conditions, where the sense of agency for the acting proxy occurred, suggesting an essential interaction between body-ownership and agency.

600 yr High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation deduced from a Puerto Rican Speleothem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieten, Rolf; Winter, Amos; Scholz, Denis; Black, David; Spoetl, Christoph; Winterhalder, Sophie; Koltai, Gabriella; Schroeder-Ritzrau, Andrea; Terzer, Stefan; Zanchettin, Davide; Mangini, Augusto

2016-04-01

A multi-proxy speleothem study tracks the regional hydrological variability in Puerto Rico and highlights its close relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) describing low-frequency sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic ocean. Our proxy record extends instrumental observations 600 years into the past, and reveals the range of natural hydrologic variability for the region. A detailed interpretation and understanding of the speleothem climate record is achieved by the combination of multi-proxy measurements, thin section petrography, XRD analysis and cave monitoring results. The speleothem was collected in Cueva Larga, a one mile-long cave system that has been monitored since 2012. MC-ICPMS 230Th/U-dating reveals that the speleothem grew constantly over the last 600 years. Trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) as well as stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) elucidate significant changes in atmospheric precipitation at the site. Monthly cave monitoring results demonstrate that the epikarst system responds to multi-annual changes in seepage water recharge. The drip water isotope and trace element composition lack short term or seasonal variability. This hydrological system creates favorable conditions to deduce decadal climate variability from Cueva Larga's climate record. The speleothem time series mimics the most recent AMO reconstruction over the last 200 years (Svendsen et al., 2014) with a time lag of 10-20 years. The lag seems to results from slow atmospheric signal transmission through the epikarst but the effect of dating uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Warm SSTs in the North Atlantic are related to drier conditions in Puerto Rico. During times of decreased rainfall a relative increase in prior calcite precipitation seems to be the main process causing increased Mg/Ca trace element ratios. High trace element ratios correlate to higher δ13C values. The increase in both proxies indicates a shift towards time periods of decreased rainfall. Before 1800 there were two intervals of increased Mg/Ca and δ13C values (dryer conditions) lasting several decades in our speleothem record centered around 1680 CE and 1470 CE. The elevated ratios indicate that drier conditions than present may have occurred in the region during periods of warm Atlantic surface waters.

Comparison of Meteorological Data and Stable Isotope Time Series from an Indonesian Stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Y.; Matsuoka, H.; Sakai, S.; Ueda, J.; Yamada, M.; Ohsawa, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Satomura, T.; Nakai, S.; Brahmantyo, B.; Maryunani, K. A.; Tagami, T.; Takemura, K.; Yoden, S.

2007-12-01

In the last decade, geochemical records in stalagmites have been widely recognized as a powerful tool for the elucidation of paleoclimate/environment of the terrestrial areas. The previous data are mainly reported from middle latitude. However, this study aims at reconstructing past climate variations in the Asian equatorial regions by using oxygen and carbon isotope ratios recorded in Indonesian stalagmites. Especially, we focused on the comparison of meteorological data and stable isotope time series from an Indonesia stalagmite, in order to check whether the geochemistry of stalagmite is influenced by local precipitation. We performed geological surveys in Buniayu limestone caves, Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia, and collected a series of stalagmites/stalactites and drip water samples. A stalagmite sample was observed using thin sections to identify banding. Moreover, to construct the age model of the stalagmite, we also measured both (1) the number of bands and (2) uranium series disequilibrium ages using the MC-ICP-MS. These data suggest that each layer is annual banding dominantly. Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios were analyzed on the stalagmite for annual time scales. The carbon isotope ratio has a clear correlation with oxygen isotope ratios. Furthermore, the proxy data was compared with meteorological data set in the past 80 years, showing a good correlation between the temporal variation of oxygen/carbon isotope ratios and annual precipitation. These lines of evidence suggest that the isotopic variation is predominantly caused by kinetic mass fractionation driven by the degassing of carbon dioxide in the cave.

Monitoring the Effects of Forest Restoration Treatments on Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery with MODIS Multitemporal Data

PubMed Central

van Leeuwen, Willem J. D.

2008-01-01

This study examines how satellite based time-series vegetation greenness data and phenological measurements can be used to monitor and quantify vegetation recovery after wildfire disturbances and examine how pre-fire fuel reduction restoration treatments impact fire severity and impact vegetation recovery trajectories. Pairs of wildfire affected sites and a nearby unburned reference site were chosen to measure the post-disturbance recovery in relation to climate variation. All site pairs were chosen in forested uplands in Arizona and were restricted to the area of the Rodeo-Chediski fire that occurred in 2002. Fuel reduction treatments were performed in 1999 and 2001. The inter-annual and seasonal vegetation dynamics before, during, and after wildfire events can be monitored using a time series of biweekly composited MODIS NDVI (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data. Time series analysis methods included difference metrics, smoothing filters, and fitting functions that were applied to extract seasonal and inter-annual change and phenological metrics from the NDVI time series data from 2000 to 2007. Pre- and post-fire Landsat data were used to compute the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and examine burn severity at the selected sites. The phenological metrics (pheno-metrics) included the timing and greenness (i.e. NDVI) for the start, peak and end of the growing season as well as proxy measures for the rate of green-up and senescence and the annual vegetation productivity. Pre-fire fuel reduction treatments resulted in lower fire severity, which reduced annual productivity much less than untreated areas within the Rodeo-Chediski fire perimeter. The seasonal metrics were shown to be useful for estimating the rate of post-fire disturbance recovery and the timing of phenological greenness phases. The use of satellite time series NDVI data and derived pheno-metrics show potential for tracking vegetation cover dynamics and successional changes in response to drought, wildfire disturbances, and forest restoration treatments in fire-suppressed forests. PMID:27879809

Towards a reanalysis covering the last millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goosse, H.; Dubinkina, S.

2012-04-01

The reanalysis, extending over several decades or longer, provide a comprehensive record of the recent variability and changes of the climate system by objectively combining observations and a numerical model. They are now considered as an essential source of information on the state of the ocean and the atmosphere used, among many other applications, to study the dynamics of the system and the interactions between its different components, to analyze the characteristics of the recent changes as well as the interannual climate variability. However, in order to study processes with a characteristic period from some decades to several centuries, the period covered by the presently available reanalysis is too short. It is therefore necessary to use paleoclimatic proxy data, which provide longer time series, in order to extent the period covered by reanalyses . Those paleoclimatic data, however, are much less numerous, more noisy, and have a lower spatial and temporal resolution than the ones available for the reanalyses over the 20th century. In order to obtain reanalyses covering the last millennia, several steps are thus still required. It is first necessary to develop data assimilation methods adapted to this specific problem. Some data synthesis for this period are available but a reanalysis requires a comprehensive evaluation of the quality of existing data, in all the regions and for all the proxies. Reanalyses are very demanding in computer time, the model selected in the procedure must thus be efficient enough but should also include the right dynamics in order to reproduce the teleconnections between areas where data are available and to extrapolate the information towards regions with no data. Finally, proxies and models do not provide the same variables and comparing them requires a sophisticated approach, ideally implying the inclusion of forward proxy models in the data assimilation system. Here, we propose to review the present status of the field and to identify how significant steps can be made in the way towards a reanalysis over the last millennia. This is illustrated by examples from recent studies in which data assimilation is applied over the last millennia using reconstructions at continental and nearly hemispheric-scale as well as grid-scale temperatures derived directly from the local calibration of proxies.

Patient-rated versus proxy-rated cognitive and functional measures in older adults

PubMed Central

Howland, Molly; Allan, Kevin C; Carlton, Caitlin E; Tatsuoka, Curtis; Smyth, Kathleen A; Sajatovic, Martha

2017-01-01

Objectives Patients with cognitive impairment may have difficulty reporting their functional and cognitive abilities, which are important clinical outcomes. Health care proxies may be able to corroborate patient self-reports. Several studies reported discrepancy between patient and proxy ratings, though the literature is sparse on changes over time of these ratings. Our goals in this 12-month study were to compare patient and proxy reports on functioning, cognition, and everyday executive function, and to further elucidate correlates of patient–proxy discrepancy. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of individuals older than 70 years who ranged from having no cognitive impairment to having moderate dementia who had a proxy available to complete instruments at baseline (N=76). Measurements included Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study–Activities of Daily Living Inventory (ADCS-ADLI), Neuro-QOL Executive Function, PROMIS Applied Cognition (PROMIS-Cog), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Geriatric Depression Scale. Results Patient- and proxy-rated ADCS-ADLI were correlated at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Patient and proxy ratings were discrepant on Neuro-QOL Executive Function and PROMIS-Cog. Greater patient–proxy discrepancy on PROMIS-Cog was associated with younger age and less depression, and greater patient–proxy discrepancy on Neuro-QOL Executive Function was associated with less depression and worse cognitive impairment. Patient–proxy discrepancy increased over time for everyday executive function. Changes in proxy-rated but not patient-rated ADCS-ADLI correlated with MMSE changes. Conclusion Patients and proxies generally agree in reporting on activities of daily living. Patient and proxy reports differ in their respective evaluation of cognitive functioning and everyday executive function. Ratings from both sources may be preferred for these two domains, though studies using gold standard measures are necessary. It is important that clinicians are aware of the differences between patient and proxy perspective to create an accurate clinical picture and guide treatment. PMID:28352208

Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Ghaith, M.

2017-12-01

Hydrological processes are characterized by many complex features, such as nonlinearity, dynamics and uncertainty. How to quantify and address such complexities and uncertainties has been a challenging task for water engineers and managers for decades. To support robust uncertainty analysis, an innovative approach for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series is developed is this study. Probabilistic Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are established through probabilistic collocation to tackle uncertainties associated with the parameters of traditional hydrological models. The uncertainties are quantified in model outputs as Hermite polynomials with regard to standard normal random variables. Sequentially, multivariate analysis techniques are used to analyze the complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological inputs (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc.) and the coefficients of the Hermite polynomials. With the established relationships between model inputs and PCE coefficients, forecasts of hydrologic time series can be generated and the uncertainties in the future time series can be further tackled. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study in China and is compared to a traditional stochastic simulation technique, the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method. Results show that the proposed approach can serve as a reliable proxy to complicated hydrological models. It can provide probabilistic forecasting in a more computationally efficient manner, compared to the traditional MCMC method. This work provides technical support for addressing uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling and for enhancing the reliability of hydrological modeling results. Applications of the developed approach can be extended to many other complicated geophysical and environmental modeling systems to support the associated uncertainty quantification and risk analysis.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era.

PubMed

2017-07-11

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emile-Geay, Julian; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, T.; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Bjorklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, M.; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Koc, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, K.M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, X.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Thapa, Udya Kuwar; Thomas, E.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, A.E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene; White, James W. C.; Yu, Z.; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

PubMed Central

Emile-Geay, Julien; McKay, Nicholas P.; Kaufman, Darrell S.; von Gunten, Lucien; Wang, Jianghao; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Addison, Jason A.; Curran, Mark A.J.; Evans, Michael N.; Henley, Benjamin J.; Hao, Zhixin; Martrat, Belen; McGregor, Helen V.; Neukom, Raphael; Pederson, Gregory T.; Stenni, Barbara; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Werner, Johannes P.; Xu, Chenxi; Divine, Dmitry V.; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Gergis, Joelle; Mundo, Ignacio A.; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; Phipps, Steven J.; Routson, Cody C.; Steig, Eric J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Tyler, Jonathan J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Bertler, Nancy A.N.; Björklund, Jesper; Chase, Brian M.; Chen, Min-Te; Cook, Ed; de Jong, Rixt; DeLong, Kristine L.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Ekaykin, Alexey A.; Ersek, Vasile; Filipsson, Helena L.; Francus, Pierre; Freund, Mandy B.; Frezzotti, Massimo; Gaire, Narayan P.; Gajewski, Konrad; Ge, Quansheng; Goosse, Hugues; Gornostaeva, Anastasia; Grosjean, Martin; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Hormes, Anne; Husum, Katrine; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kandasamy, Selvaraj; Kawamura, Kenji; Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Koç, Nalan; Leduc, Guillaume; Linderholm, Hans W.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Mikhalenko, Vladimir; Mortyn, P. Graham; Motoyama, Hideaki; Moy, Andrew D.; Mulvaney, Robert; Munz, Philipp M.; Nash, David J.; Oerter, Hans; Opel, Thomas; Orsi, Anais J.; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy V.; Porter, Trevor J.; Roop, Heidi A.; Saenger, Casey; Sano, Masaki; Sauchyn, David; Saunders, Krystyna M.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Severi, Mirko; Shao, Xuemei; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Sigl, Michael; Sinclair, Kate; St. George, Scott; St. Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Thamban, Meloth; Kuwar Thapa, Udya; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Turney, Chris; Uemura, Ryu; Viau, Andre E.; Vladimirova, Diana O.; Wahl, Eugene R.; White, James W.C.; Yu, Zicheng; Zinke, Jens

2017-01-01

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. PMID:28696409

An empirical comparison of the measurement properties of the EQ-5D-5L, DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U for older people in residential care.

PubMed

Easton, Tiffany; Milte, Rachel; Crotty, Maria; Ratcliffe, Julie

2018-05-01

This study aimed to empirically compare the measurement properties of self-reported and proxy-reported (in cases of severe cognitive impairment) generic (EQ-5D-5L) and condition-specific (DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U) preference-based HRQoL instruments in residential care, where the population is characterised by older people with high rates of cognitive impairment, dementia and disability. Participants were recruited from seventeen residential care facilities across four Australian states. One hundred and forty-three participants self-completed the EQ-5D-5L and the DEMQOL-U while three hundred and eight-seven proxy completed (due to the presence of severe dementia) the EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-Proxy-U. The convergent validity of the outcome measures and known group validity relative to a series of clinical outcome measures were assessed. Results satisfy convergent validity among the outcome measures. EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-U utilities were found to be significantly correlated with each other (p < 0.01) as were EQ-5D-5L and DEMQOL-Proxy-U utilities (p < 0.01). Both self-reported and proxy-reported EQ-5D-5L utilities demonstrated strong known group validity in relation to clinically recognised thresholds of cognition and physical functioning, while in contrast neither DEMQOL-U nor DEMQOL-Proxy-U demonstrated this association. The findings suggest that the EQ-5D-5L, DEMQOL-U and DEMQOL-Proxy-U capture distinct aspects of HRQoL for this population. The measurement and valuation of HRQoL form an essential component of economic evaluation in residential care. However, high levels of cognitive impairment may preclude self-completion for a majority. Further research is needed to determine cognition thresholds beyond which an individual is unable to reliably self-report their own health-related quality of life.

Understanding the milk-to-feed price ratio as a proxy for dairy farm profitability.

PubMed

Wolf, C A

2010-10-01

This research examines the definition, historical pattern, and utility of the milk-to-feed price ratio (MF) as a measure of dairy farm profitability. The MF was generally an acceptable proxy of profitability in an annual sense from 1985 to 2006. The MF was steady at an average of 2.8 from 1985 to 2006 even as average annual milk price in nominal terms increased from $12 to $14/hundredweight. An alternative proxy for profitability is income over feed costs, which is measured in dollars per hundredweight. Comparison with an actual profit measure, rate of return on assets, is used to examine the appropriateness of the proxies. The volatility from 2007 to 2009 resulted in MF being a poor measure of profitability over that period. The implication is that MF is not the preferred measure of profitability when a significant change in the pattern of one or both price series occurs. Income over feed cost is a better measure of profitability in periods of volatility. Copyright © 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

He said, she said: The gender wage gap according to self and proxy reports in the Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Reynolds, Jeremy; Wenger, Jeffrey B

2012-03-01

Roughly half the labor force data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) are provided by proxy respondents, and since 1979, men's reliance on proxies has dropped dramatically while women's reliance on proxies has increased. Few authors, however, have examined how combining these first-hand and second-hand reports may influence our understanding of long-term economic trends. We exploit the outgoing rotation group structure of the CPS by matching individual records one year apart, and we find that self-reported wages are higher than proxy-reported wages even after controlling for all time invariant characteristics. Furthermore, we find that changes in the use of proxy respondents by men and women since 1979 have made current estimates of the gender wage gap larger than they would have been without changes in reporting status. This suggests that the gender wage gap has closed more than previously estimated. We recommend that researchers combine self and proxy responses with great care, especially when analyzing time trends or making gender comparisons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low-accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohleber, Pascal; Erhardt, Tobias; Spaulding, Nicole; Hoffmann, Helene; Fischer, Hubertus; Mayewski, Paul

2018-01-01

Among ice core drilling sites in the European Alps, Colle Gnifetti (CG) is the only non-temperate glacier to offer climate records dating back at least 1000 years. This unique long-term archive is the result of an exceptionally low net accumulation driven by wind erosion and rapid annual layer thinning. However, the full exploitation of the CG time series has been hampered by considerable dating uncertainties and the seasonal summer bias in snow preservation. Using a new core drilled in 2013 we extend annual layer counting, for the first time at CG, over the last 1000 years and add additional constraints to the resulting age scale from radiocarbon dating. Based on this improved age scale, and using a multi-core approach with a neighbouring ice core, we explore the time series of stable water isotopes and the mineral dust proxies Ca2+ and insoluble particles. Also in our latest ice core we face the already known limitation to the quantitative use of the stable isotope variability based on a high and potentially non-stationary isotope/temperature sensitivity at CG. Decadal trends in Ca2+ reveal substantial agreement with instrumental temperature and are explored here as a potential site-specific supplement to the isotope-based temperature reconstruction. The observed coupling between temperature and Ca2+ trends likely results from snow preservation effects and the advection of dust-rich air masses coinciding with warm temperatures. We find that if calibrated against instrumental data, the Ca2+-based temperature reconstruction is in robust agreement with the latest proxy-based summer temperature reconstruction, including a Little Ice Age cold period as well as a medieval climate anomaly. Part of the medieval climate period around AD 1100-1200 clearly stands out through an increased occurrence of dust events, potentially resulting from a relative increase in meridional flow and/or dry conditions over the Mediterranean.

Nitrogen Isotopic Composition of Proteinaceous Coral Skeletal Amino Acids Records Change in Source Nitrate to the Euphotic Zone in the Western Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, B.; Thibodeau, B.; Chikaraishi, Y.; Ohkouchi, N.; Grottoli, A. G.

2014-12-01

Instrumental and proxy data and global climate model experiments indicate a multi-decadal shoaling of the western tropical Pacific (WTP) thermocline potentially related to a shift in ENSO frequency. In the WTP, the nutricline coincides with the thermocline, and a shoaling of the nutricline brings more nitrate-rich seawater higher in the water column and within the sunlit euphotic zone. In the nutrient-poor WTP, this incursion of nitrate-rich water at the bottom of the euphotic zone may stimulate productivity in the water column. However, there is a general paucity of measurements below the surface with which to investigate recent changes in seawater chemistry. Nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements of particulate organic matter (POM) can elucidate the source of nitrogen to the WTP and related trophic dynamics. This POM is the food source to the long-lived proteinaceous corals, and drives the nitrogen isotopic composition of their skeleton. Here, we report time series δ15N values from the banded skeletons of proteinaceous corals from offshore Palau in the WTP that provide proxy information about past changes in euphotic zone nitrogen dynamics. Bulk skeletal δ15N values declined between 1977 and 2010 suggesting a progressively increasing contribution of deep water with isotopically-light nitrate to the euphotic zone and/or a shortening of the planktonic food web. Since only some amino acids are enriched in δ15N with each trophic transfer in a food web, we measured the δ15N composition of seven individual amino acids in the same coral skeleton. The δ15N time series of the individual amino acids also declined over time, mirroring the bulk values. These new data indicate that the changes in the source nitrogen to the base of the euphotic zone drives a decline in coral skeletal δ15N values, consistent with the shoaling nutricline, with no coinciding alteration of the trophic structure in the WTP.

Climate change. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming.

PubMed

Romps, David M; Seeley, Jacob T; Vollaro, David; Molinari, John

2014-11-14

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Devils Hole, Nevada, δ18O record extended to the mid-Holocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winograd, Isaac J.; Landwehr, Jurate M.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Sharp, Warren D.; Riggs, Alan C.; Ludwig, Kenneth R.; Kolesar, Peter T.

2006-01-01

The mid-to-late Pleistocene Devils Hole δ18O record has been extended from 60,000 to 4500 yr ago. The new δ18O time series, in conjunction with the one previously published, is shown to be a proxy of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) off the coast of California. During marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 2 and 6, the Devil Hole and SST time series exhibit a steady warming that began 5000 to > 10,000 yr prior to the last and penultimate deglaciations. Several possible proximate causes for this early warming are evaluated. The magnitude of the peak δ18O or SST during the last interglacial (LIG) is significantly greater (1 per mill and 2 to 3°C, respectively) than the peak value of these parameters for the Holocene; in contrast, benthic δ18O records of ice volume show only a few tenths per mill difference in the peak value for these interglacials. Statistical analysis provides an estimate of the large shared information (variation) between the Devils Hole and Eastern Pacific SST time series from ∼ 41 to ∼ 2°N and enforces the concept of a common forcing among all of these records. The extended Devils Hole record adds to evidence of the importance of uplands bordering the eastern Pacific as a source of archives for reconstructing Pacific climate variability.

Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia.

PubMed

Hogan, Alexandra B; Anderssen, Robert S; Davis, Stephanie; Moore, Hannah C; Lim, Faye J; Fathima, Parveen; Glass, Kathryn

2016-09-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is most commonly associated with bronchiolitis. RSV typically occurs as annual or biennial winter epidemics in temperate regions, with less pronounced seasonality in the tropics. We sought to characterise and compare the seasonality of RSV and bronchiolitis in temperate and tropical Western Australia. We examined over 13 years of RSV laboratory identifications and bronchiolitis hospitalisations in children, using an extensive linked dataset from Western Australia. We applied mathematical time series analyses to identify the dominant seasonal cycle, and changes in epidemic size and timing over this period. Both the RSV and bronchiolitis data showed clear winter epidemic peaks in July or August in the southern Western Australia regions, but less identifiable seasonality in the northern regions. Use of complex demodulation proved very effective at comparing disease epidemics. The timing of RSV and bronchiolitis epidemics coincided well, but the size of the epidemics differed, with more consistent peak sizes for bronchiolitis than for RSV. Our results show that bronchiolitis hospitalisations are a reasonable proxy for the timing of RSV detections, but may not fully capture the magnitude of RSV epidemics. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral binning for energy production calculations and multijunction solar cell design

DOE PAGES

Garcia, Iván; McMahon, William E.; Habte, Aron; ...

2017-09-14

Currently, most solar cells are designed for and evaluated under standard spectra intended to represent typical spectral conditions. However, no single spectrum can capture the spectral variability needed for annual energy production (AEP) calculations, and this shortcoming becomes more significant for series-connected multijunction cells as the number of junctions increases. For this reason, AEP calculations are often performed on very detailed yearlong sets of data, but these pose 2 inherent challenges: (1) These data sets comprise thousands of data points, which appear as a scattered cloud of data when plotted against typical parameters and are hence cumbersome to classify andmore » compare, and (2) large sets of spectra bring with them a corresponding increase in computation or measurement time. Here, we show how a large spectral set can be reduced to just a few 'proxy' spectra, which still retain the spectral variability information needed for AEP design and evaluation. The basic 'spectral binning' methods should be extensible to a variety of multijunction device architectures. In this study, as a demonstration, the AEP of a 4-junction device is computed for both a full set of spectra and a reduced proxy set, and the results show excellent agreement for as few as 3 proxy spectra. This enables much faster (and thereby more detailed) calculations and indoor measurements and provides a manageable way to parameterize a spectral set, essentially creating a 'spectral fingerprint,' which should facilitate the understanding and comparison of different sites.« less

Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

Spectral binning for energy production calculations and multijunction solar cell design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, Iván; McMahon, William E.; Habte, Aron

Currently, most solar cells are designed for and evaluated under standard spectra intended to represent typical spectral conditions. However, no single spectrum can capture the spectral variability needed for annual energy production (AEP) calculations, and this shortcoming becomes more significant for series-connected multijunction cells as the number of junctions increases. For this reason, AEP calculations are often performed on very detailed yearlong sets of data, but these pose 2 inherent challenges: (1) These data sets comprise thousands of data points, which appear as a scattered cloud of data when plotted against typical parameters and are hence cumbersome to classify andmore » compare, and (2) large sets of spectra bring with them a corresponding increase in computation or measurement time. Here, we show how a large spectral set can be reduced to just a few 'proxy' spectra, which still retain the spectral variability information needed for AEP design and evaluation. The basic 'spectral binning' methods should be extensible to a variety of multijunction device architectures. In this study, as a demonstration, the AEP of a 4-junction device is computed for both a full set of spectra and a reduced proxy set, and the results show excellent agreement for as few as 3 proxy spectra. This enables much faster (and thereby more detailed) calculations and indoor measurements and provides a manageable way to parameterize a spectral set, essentially creating a 'spectral fingerprint,' which should facilitate the understanding and comparison of different sites.« less

ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

2006-12-01

Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for the global application of an ENSO based index insurance product are discussed.

Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.

2007-01-01

The effects of solar variability on regional climate time series were examined using a sequence of physical connections between total solar irradiance (TSI) modulated by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and ocean and atmospheric patterns that affect precipitation and streamflow. The solar energy reaching the Earth's surface and its oceans is thought to be controlled through an interaction between TSI and GCRs, which are theorized to ionize the atmosphere and increase cloud formation and its resultant albedo. High (low) GCR flux may promote cloudiness (clear skies) and higher (lower) albedo at the same time that TSI is lowest (highest) in the solar cycle which in turn creates cooler (warmer) ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies have been shown to affect atmospheric flow patterns and ultimately affect precipitation over the Midwestern United States. This investigation identified a relation among TSI and geomagnetic index aa (GI-AA), and streamflow in the Mississippi River Basin for the period 1878-2004. The GI-AA was used as a proxy for GCRs. The lag time between the solar signal and streamflow in the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri is approximately 34 years. The current drought (1999-2007) in the Mississippi River Basin appears to be caused by a period of lower solar activity that occurred between 1963 and 1977. There appears to be a solar "fingerprint" that can be detected in climatic time series in other regions of the world, with each series having a unique lag time between the solar signal and the hydroclimatic response. A progression of increasing lag times can be spatially linked to the ocean conveyor belt, which may transport the solar signal over a time span of several decades. The lag times for any one region vary slightly and may be linked to the fluctuations in the velocity of the ocean conveyor belt.

Dynamic linkages between road transport energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental quality: evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Danish; Baloch, Muhammad Awais

2018-03-01

The focus of the present research work is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, road transport energy consumption, and environmental quality. To this end, we rely on time series data for the period 1971 to 2014 in the context of Pakistan. To use sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission from transport sector as a new proxy for measuring environmental quality, the present work employs time series technique ARDL which allows energy consumption from the transport sector, urbanization, and road infrastructure to be knotted by symmetric relationships with SO 2 emissions and economic growth. From the statistical results, we confirm that road infrastructure boosts economic growth. Simultaneously, road infrastructure and urbanization hampers environmental quality and causes to accelerate emission of SO 2 in the atmosphere. Furthermore, economic growth has a diminishing negative impact on total SO 2 emission. Moreover, we did not find any proof of the expected role of transport energy consumption in SO 2 emission. The acquired results directed that care should be taken in the expansion of road infrastructure and green city policies and planning are required in the country.

A 1500-year holocene caribbean climate archive from the Blue Hole, lighthouse reef, belize

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gischler, E.; Shinn, E.A.; Oschmann, W.; Fiebig, J.; Buster, N.A.

2008-01-01

Sediment cores (up to 6 m in length) from the bottom of the Blue Hole, a 125 m deep Pleistocene sinkhole located in the lagoon of Lighthouse Reef Atoll, Belize, consist of undisturbed, annually layered biogenic carbonate muds and silts with intercalated coarser grained storm beds. The sedimentation rate of the layered sections is 2.5 mm/y on average, and the long cores span the past 1500 years. Oxygen isotopes of laminated sediment provide a late Holocene climate proxy: A high-resolution ??18O time series traces the final Migration Period Pessimum, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the subsequent temperature rise. Carbon isotopes (??13C) decrease up core and show the impacts of the decline of the Mayan culture and the Suess effect. Time series analyses of ??18O and ??13C content reveal 88-, 60-, 52-, and 32-year cyclicities, and suggest solar forcing. Storm event beds are most common during AD 650-850, around AD 1000, during AD 1200-1300, and AD 1450-1550. Major storm beds are rare during the past 500 years BP.

Shallow-water gaseohydrothermal plume studies after massive eruption at Panarea, Aeolian Islands, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tudino, T.; Bortoluzzi, G.; Aliani, S.

2014-03-01

Marine water dynamics in the near field of a massive gas eruption near Panarea (Aeolian Islands volcanic arc, SE Tyrrhenian Sea) is described. ADCP current-meters were deployed during the paroxysmal phase in 2002 and 2003 a few meters from the degassing vent, recording day-long time series. Datasets were sorted to remove errors and select good quality ensembles over the entire water column. Standard deviation of error velocity was considered a proxy for inhomogeneous velocity fields over beams. Time series intervals had been selected when the basic ADCP assumptions were fulfilled and random errors minimized. Backscatter data were also processed to identify bubbles in the water column with the aim of locating bubble-free ensembles. Reliable time series are selected combining these data. Two possible scenarios have been described: firstly, a highly dynamic situation with visible surface diverging rings of waves, entrainment on the lower part of the gas column, detrainment in the upper part and a stagnation line (SL) at mid depth where currents were close to zero and most of the gas bubbles spread laterally; secondly, a less dynamic situation with water entraining into the gas plume at all depths and no surface rings of diverging waves. Reasons for these different dynamics may be ascribed to changes in gas fluxes (one order of magnitude higher in 2002). Description of SL is important to quantify its position in the water column and timing for entrainment-detrainment, and it can be measured by ADCP and calculated from models.

Common trends in elements? Within- and between-tree variations of wood-chemistry measured by X-ray fluorescence - A dendrochemical study.

PubMed

Scharnweber, Tobias; Hevia, Andrea; Buras, Allan; van der Maaten, Ernst; Wilmking, Martin

2016-10-01

Element composition of annually resolved tree-rings constitutes a promising biological proxy for reconstructions of environmental conditions and pollution history. However, several methodological and physiological issues have to be addressed before sound conclusions can be drawn from dendrochemical time series. For example, radial and vertical translocation processes of elements in the wood might blur or obscure any dendrochemical signal. In this study, we tested the degree of synchronism of elemental time series within and between trees of one coniferous (Pinus sylvestris L.) and one broadleaf (Castanea sativa Mill.) species growing in conventionally managed forests without direct pollution sources in their surroundings. Micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) analysis was used to establish time series of relative concentrations of multiple elements (Mg, Al, P, Cl, K, Ca, Cr, Mn, Fe and Ni) for different stem heights and stem exposures. We found a common long-term (decadal) trend for most elements in both species, but only little coherence in the high frequency domain (inter-annual variations). Aligning the element curves by cambial age instead of year of ring formation reduced the standard deviations between the single measurements. This points at an influence of age on longer term trends and would require a detrending in order to extract any environmental signal from dendrochemical time series. The common signal was stronger for pine than for chestnut. In pine, many elements show a concentration gradient with higher values towards the tree crown. Mobility of elements in the stem leading to high within- and between-tree variability, as well as a potential age-trend apparently complicate the establishment of reliable dendrochemical chronologies. For future wood-chemical studies, we recommend to work with element ratios instead of single element time series, to consider potential age trends and to analyze more than one sample per tree to account for internal variability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-proxies Approach of Climatic Records In Terrestrial Mollusks Shells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labonne, M.; Rousseau, D. D.; Ben Othman, D.; Luck, J. M.; Metref, S.

Fossil land snails shells constitute a valuable source of information for the study of Quaternary deposits as they are commonly preserved in many regions and notably in loess sequences. The use of stable isotope composition of the carbonate in the shells was previously applied to reconstruct past climate or environnements but the technic was not widely exploited and compared with other proxies from the same sequence. In this study, we have analysed stables isotopes, trace elements and Sr isotopes from both shells of land snails Vertigo modesta and the sediment from the Eustis upper Pleistocene loess sequence (Nebraska, USA). This serie developed during the last glaciation and records the last deglaciation between 18,000 and 12,000 B.P. years. We compare the paleoclimatic information obtained by different proxies, such as mag- netic susceptibility, temperature and moisture estimated by land snails assemblage with geochemical data measured on land snails shells in order to validate the climatic information obtained with this proxy. Our study demonstrates that shell carbonate reflects environmental conditions estimated by other proxies. Carbon and oxygen iso- topes show cyclic variations (millenial cycles) along the profile which correlate with stratigraphic units and could be link with the retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet. Trace element and Sr isotopes in the shells indicate various origins for the eolian dusts in the two main loess units along the sequence.

Spatio-temporal representativeness of ground-based downward solar radiation measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Matthias; Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris

2017-04-01

Surface solar radiation (SSR) is most directly observed with ground based pyranometer measurements. Besides measurement uncertainties, which arise from the pyranometer instrument itself, also errors attributed to the limited spatial representativeness of observations from single sites for their large-scale surrounding have to be taken into account when using such measurements for energy balance studies. In this study the spatial representativeness of 157 homogeneous European downward surface solar radiation time series from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) were examined for the period 1983-2015 by using the high resolution (0.05°) surface solar radiation data set from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF SARAH) as a proxy for the spatiotemporal variability of SSR. By correlating deseasonalized monthly SSR time series form surface observations against single collocated satellite derived SSR time series, a mean spatial correlation pattern was calculated and validated against purely observational based patterns. Generally decreasing correlations with increasing distance from station, with high correlations (R2 = 0.7) in proximity to the observational sites (±0.5°), was found. When correlating surface observations against time series from spatially averaged satellite derived SSR data (and thereby simulating coarser and coarser grids), very high correspondence between sites and the collocated pixels has been found for pixel sizes up to several degrees. Moreover, special focus was put on the quantification of errors which arise in conjunction to spatial sampling when estimating the temporal variability and trends for a larger region from a single surface observation site. For 15-year trends on a 1° grid, errors due to spatial sampling in the order of half of the measurement uncertainty for monthly mean values were found.

Constructing Proxy Variables to Measure Adult Learners' Time Management Strategies in LMS

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jo, Il-Hyun; Kim, Dongho; Yoon, Meehyun

2015-01-01

This study describes the process of constructing proxy variables from recorded log data within a Learning Management System (LMS), which represents adult learners' time management strategies in an online course. Based on previous research, three variables of total login time, login frequency, and regularity of login interval were selected as…

Long-term Trend of Satellite-observed Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variations in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. E.; PARK, K. A.

2016-02-01

Long-term time-series of satellite ocean color data enable us to analyze the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem through chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. In this study, we constructed a 17 year-long time-series dataset (1998-2014) of chlorophyll-a concentration by combining SeaWiFS (Obrview-2, 1997-2010) and MODIS (Aqua, 2002-present) data in the East Sea (Japan Sea). Several types of errors such as anonymously high values (a speckle error), stripe-like patterns, discrepancy originating from time gap between the two satellites were eliminated to enhance the accuracy of chlorophyll-a concentration data. The composited chlorophyll-a concentration maps, passing through the post-processing of the speckle errors, were improved significantly, by 14% of abnormal variability in maximum. Using the database, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll-a concentration in the East Sea. Spatial distribution of long-term trend of chlorophyll-a concentration indicated obvious distinction between northern and southern regions of the subpolar front. It revealed predominant seasonal variabilities as well as long-term changes in the timings of spring bloom. This study addresses the important role of local climate change on fast changing ecosystem of the East Sea as one of miniature oceans.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

Questioning the Influence of Sunspots on Amazon Hydrology: Even a Broken Clock Tells the Right Time Twice a Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, J. C. A.; Gloor, M.; Boom, A.; Neill, D. A.; Cintra, B. B. L.; Clerici, S. J.; Brienen, R. J. W.

2018-02-01

It was suggested in a recent article that sunspots drive decadal variation in Amazon River flow. This conclusion was based on a novel time series decomposition method used to extract a decadal signal from the Amazon River record. We have extended this analysis back in time, using a new hydrological proxy record of tree ring oxygen isotopes (δ18OTR). Consistent with the findings of Antico and Torres, we find a positive correlation between sunspots and the decadal δ18OTR cycle from 1903 to 2012 (r = 0.60, p < 0.001). However, the relationship does not persist into the preceding century and even becomes weakly negative (r = -0.30, p = 0.11, 1799-1902). This result casts considerable doubt over the mechanism by which sunspots are purported to influence Amazon hydrology.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a.s.l.). Higher order autoregressive processes are important in the isotope time series analysis. Our results show that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative.

New Zealand Maritime Glaciation: Millennial-Scale Southern Climate Change Since 3.9 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Robert M.; Gammon, Paul

2004-06-01

Ocean Drilling Program Site 1119 is ideally located to intercept discharges of sediment from the mid-latitude glaciers of the New Zealand Southern Alps. The natural gamma ray signal from the site's sediment core contains a history of the South Island mountain ice cap since 3.9 million years ago (Ma). The younger record, to 0.37 Ma, resembles the climatic history of Antarctica as manifested by the Vostok ice core. Beyond, and back to the late Pliocene, the record may serve as a proxy for both mid-latitude and Antarctic polar plateau air temperature. The gamma ray signal, which is atmospheric, also resembles the ocean climate history represented by oxygen isotope time series.

New security infrastructure model for distributed computing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubenskaya, J.; Kryukov, A.; Demichev, A.; Prikhodko, N.

2016-02-01

At the paper we propose a new approach to setting up a user-friendly and yet secure authentication and authorization procedure in a distributed computing system. The security concept of the most heterogeneous distributed computing systems is based on the public key infrastructure along with proxy certificates which are used for rights delegation. In practice a contradiction between the limited lifetime of the proxy certificates and the unpredictable time of the request processing is a big issue for the end users of the system. We propose to use unlimited in time hashes which are individual for each request instead of proxy certificate. Our approach allows to avoid using of the proxy certificates. Thus the security infrastructure of distributed computing system becomes easier for development, support and use.

12 CFR 1710.11 - Board of directors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... member may not vote by proxy. (4) Information. Management of an Enterprise shall provide a board member... time to time. (b) Meetings, quorum and proxies, information, and annual review—(1) Frequency of..., regulations, and guidelines. (2) Non-management board member meetings. Non-management directors of an...

12 CFR 1710.11 - Board of directors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... member may not vote by proxy. (4) Information. Management of an Enterprise shall provide a board member... time to time. (b) Meetings, quorum and proxies, information, and annual review—(1) Frequency of..., regulations, and guidelines. (2) Non-management board member meetings. Non-management directors of an...

12 CFR 1710.11 - Board of directors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... member may not vote by proxy. (4) Information. Management of an Enterprise shall provide a board member... time to time. (b) Meetings, quorum and proxies, information, and annual review—(1) Frequency of..., regulations, and guidelines. (2) Non-management board member meetings. Non-management directors of an...

12 CFR 1710.11 - Board of directors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... member may not vote by proxy. (4) Information. Management of an Enterprise shall provide a board member... time to time. (b) Meetings, quorum and proxies, information, and annual review—(1) Frequency of..., regulations, and guidelines. (2) Non-management board member meetings. Non-management directors of an...

Half-precessional climate forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics on the East African equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verschuren, D.; Sinninghe Damste, J. S.; Moernaut, J.; Kristen, I.; Fagot, M.; Blaauw, M.; Haug, G. H.; Project Members, C.

2008-12-01

The EuroCLIMATE project CHALLACEA produced a detailed multi-proxy reconstruction of the climate history of equatorial East Africa, based on the sediment record of Lake Challa, a 4.2 km2, 92-m deep crater lake on the lower East slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Kenya/Tanzania). Relatively stable sedimentation dynamics over the past 25,000 years resulted in a unique combination of high temporal resolution, excellent radiometric (210Pb, 14C) age control, and confidence that recording parameters of the climatic proxy signals extracted from the sediment have remained constant through time. The equatorial (3 deg. S) location of our study site in East Africa, where seasonal migration of convective activity spans the widest latitude range worldwide, produced unique information on how varying rainfall contributions from the northeasterly and southeasterly Indian Ocean monsoons shaped regional climate history. The Challa proxy records for temperature (TEX86) and moisture balance (reflection-seismic stratigraphy and the BIT index of soil bacterial input) uniquely weave together tropical climate variability at orbital and shorter time scales. The temporal pattern of reconstructed moisture balance bears the clear signature of half- precessional insolation forcing of Indian Ocean monsoon dynamics, modified by northern-latitude influence on moisture-balance variation at millennial and century time scales. During peak glacial time (but not immediately before) and the Younger Dryas, NH ice sheet influences overrode local insolation influence on monsoon intensity. After the NH ice sheets had melted and a relatively stable interglacial temperature regime developed, precession-driven summer insolation became the dominant determinant of regional moisture balance, with anti-phased patterns of Holocene hydrological change in the northern and southern (sub)tropics, and a uniquely hybrid pattern on the East African equator. In the last 2-3000 years a series of multi-century droughts with links to high latitude climate variability exerted widespread influence across the African continent. In northern and western tropical Africa these drought episodes accentuated the late- Holocene drying trend; in southern tropical Africa they mitigated or aborted the trend to increasing monsoon rainfall prescribed by SH insolation forcing.

A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

2018-03-01

Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

Performance of Simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation Climate Reconstructions over the Last Millennium: Comparison of Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Eugene R.; Amrhein, Dan E.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Ammann, Caspar M.

2010-05-01

A key question in late-Holocene climate dynamics is the role of dominant modes in influencing climates in teleconnected regions of the world. For example, it has recently been proposed that ENSO had a key role in influencing the extended period of largely positive-phase NAO during ~1100-1400 CE (Trouet et al., 2009, Science, 324, 78). Fundamental to understanding the global and regional climatological roles of dominant modes are primary data on the variations of the modes themselves, in particular paleoclimate data that greatly extend instrumental-period information. Establishing records of ENSO indices that span the past millennium has proven difficult, and well-verified reconstructions produced to date have non-trivial differences (cf., e.g., Braganza et al., 2009, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D05106). This presentation examines important general questions regarding reconstructions of modal indices, including ENSO: is it best (1) to focus on proxy evidence from the most strongly influenced (or most strongly teleconnected) areas, (2) to combine proxy data from a large regional network encompassing the primary area of modal activity and teleconnections (e.g., around the Pacific Rim in the case of ENSO), or (3) to use climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods that assimilate up-to-global-scale proxy information? A systematic suite of reconstruction simulation experiments (RSEs), derived from NCAR CSM 1.4 millennium transient model output, is explored to test the various strengths and weaknesses of these three approaches for reconstructing the NINO3 index. By doing this, NINO3 reconstruction fidelity can be gauged over the entire simulated millennium via comparison to the known model target; such comparisons are restricted to brief "validation" periods in real-world reconstructions due to the length of the instrumental record. For strategies (1) and (2), pseudoproxies are formed by adding white noise to the model output (seasonally-appropriate precipitation or temperature) at the simulated proxy locations, so that the correlation of the noise-added time series to the original CSM output emulates that of real-world proxy information to local instrumental climate data. White noise is considered a reasonable first-order approximation of random process in these two strategies, since all predictands and predictors used in the reconstruction algorithms are "pre-whitened" by removal of AR1 persistence, following dendrochronological methods. For strategy (3), pseudoproxies are similarly sampled at locations that approximate proxy availability in real-world CFR applications; white noise at a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.25 (by variance) is added (real-world noise characteristics are likely more complex than the model adopted in this case). Monte Carlo replication of the simulated reconstructions is then generated from multiple pseudoproxy noise realizations, and thus a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty involved in the reconstruction process is derived. The results of these experiments indicate that exploitation of low-noise proxy data (i.e., proxy information that closely tracks its associated teleconnected climatic variable) from the most-strongly teleconnected areas (strategy 1) is a preferable method for ENSO index reconstruction, in comparison to adding additional proxy information from less-strongly teleconnected areas (strategy 2). Average reconstruction fidelity was reduced by strategy (2) and the width of the estimated credible intervals (CIs) was widened relative to those generated using strategy (1). The use of CFR methods, strategy (3), further enhances the width of the simulated CIs, even to the point of suggesting possible loss of reconstruction significance (at the 95% level) for a brief period. Given these widened CIs, however, the CFR method shows the highest reconstruction fidelity overall (restricted to the 19th and 20th centuries), suggesting it might be a preferable method along with strategy (1). The enhanced performance of the CFR method during this time is due at least in part to the fact that the CFR reconstructions better capture the 20th century trend than the reconstructions in strategies (1) and (2) (note that the pre-whitening process leaves the trend largely intact), and may also be due to the greater proxy richness exploited in the CFR method. This enhanced performance during the real-world time of calibration and verification should also lead to the caveat that it might suggest performance during such a limited period that gives an over-optimistic view of its true potential over the full millennium.

Anemia and neutropenic fever with high dose diazoxide treatment in a case with hyperinsulinism due to Munchausen by proxy.

PubMed

Ozon, A; Demirbilek, H; Ertugrul, A; Unal, S; Gumruk, F; Kandemir, N

2010-07-01

The etiology of hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia in adolescents is similar to that of adults. Patients resistant to medical treatment may undergo pancreatectomy. Diazoxide is the mainstay of medical treatment. Rarely bone marrow suppression is reported due to diazoxide. An adolescent with severe hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia was referred for pancreatectomy after she was treated with high doses of diazoxide, octreotide and glucose. She developed anemia and febrile neutropenia in the course of diazoxide treatment that resolved with cessation of medication. The cause of the hyperinsulinemia proved to be classical Munchausen by proxy. This is the first report of bone marrow suppression involving erythroid series by diazoxide. Follow-up of blood count may be considered in patients on high dosages since anemia may be dose dependent. Munchausen by proxy poses a serious threat to children with significant morbidity and mortality. Awareness and a high index of suspicion in clinical settings with unusual causes are the mainstay for the diagnosis.

Do patient and proxy agree? Long-term changes in multiple sclerosis physical impact and walking ability on patient-reported outcome scales.

PubMed

Sonder, Judith M; Balk, Lisanne J; Bosma, Libertje V A E; Polman, Chris H; Uitdehaag, Bernard M J

2014-10-01

Patient-reported outcome scales (PROs) are useful in monitoring changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) over time. Although these scales are reliable and valid measures in longitudinal studies in MS patients, it is unknown what the impact is when obtaining longitudinal data from proxies. The objective of this paper is to compare longitudinal changes in patient and proxy responses on PROs assessing physical impact of MS and walking ability. In a prospective observational study, data on the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29 physical) and Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) were obtained from 137 patient-proxy couples at baseline and at two-year follow-up. Demographic and disease-related variables explaining agreement or disagreement between patients and proxies were investigated using linear regression analyses. Full agreement was found in 56% (MSIS) and 62% (MSWS) of the patient-proxy couples. Complete disagreement was very rare for both scales (2% MSIS, 5% MSWS). When patients were more positive than proxies, a higher age, longer disease duration, longer patient-proxy relationship and increased levels of depression, anxiety and caregiver burden in proxies were observed. In the majority of the patient-proxy couples there was agreement. Proxies can serve as a valuable source of information, but caution remains essential when using scores from proxies. © The Author(s), 2014.

Fractal analyses reveal independent complexity and predictability of gait

PubMed Central

Dierick, Frédéric; Nivard, Anne-Laure

2017-01-01

Locomotion is a natural task that has been assessed for decades and used as a proxy to highlight impairments of various origins. So far, most studies adopted classical linear analyses of spatio-temporal gait parameters. Here, we use more advanced, yet not less practical, non-linear techniques to analyse gait time series of healthy subjects. We aimed at finding more sensitive indexes related to spatio-temporal gait parameters than those previously used, with the hope to better identify abnormal locomotion. We analysed large-scale stride interval time series and mean step width in 34 participants while altering walking direction (forward vs. backward walking) and with or without galvanic vestibular stimulation. The Hurst exponent α and the Minkowski fractal dimension D were computed and interpreted as indexes expressing predictability and complexity of stride interval time series, respectively. These holistic indexes can easily be interpreted in the framework of optimal movement complexity. We show that α and D accurately capture stride interval changes in function of the experimental condition. Walking forward exhibited maximal complexity (D) and hence, adaptability. In contrast, walking backward and/or stimulation of the vestibular system decreased D. Furthermore, walking backward increased predictability (α) through a more stereotyped pattern of the stride interval and galvanic vestibular stimulation reduced predictability. The present study demonstrates the complementary power of the Hurst exponent and the fractal dimension to improve walking classification. Our developments may have immediate applications in rehabilitation, diagnosis, and classification procedures. PMID:29182659

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Calibrated solar S-index time series (Egeland+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, R.; Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Hall, J. C.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Bertello, L.

2017-08-01

The Mount Wilson HK Program observed the Moon with both the HKP-1 and HKP-2 instruments. After removing 11 obvious outliers, there are 162 HKP-1 observations taken from 1966 September 2 to 1977 June 4 with the Mount Wilson 100 inch reflector, covering the maximum of cycle 20 and the cycle 20-21 minimum. As mentioned in Baliunas+ (1995ApJ...438..269B), observations of the Moon resumed in 1993 with the HKP-2 instrument. After removing 10 obvious outliers, there are 75 HKP-2 observations taken from 1994 March 27 to 2002 November 23 with the Mount Wilson 60 inch reflector, covering the end of cycle 22 and the cycle 23 minimum, extending just past the cycle 23 maximum. The end of observations coincides with the unfortunate termination of the HK Project in 2003. We seek to extend our time series of solar variability beyond cycle 23 by establishing a proxy to the NSO Sacramento Peak (NSO/SP) observations taken from 1976 to 2016, covering cycles 21 to 24. The spectral intensity scale is set by integrating a 0.53Å band centered at 3934.869Å in the K-line wing and setting it to the fixed value of 0.162. We extend the S-index record back to cycle 20 using the composite K time series of Bertello+ (2016SoPh..291.2967B). See section 3 for further explanations. (1 data file).

Carbon flux from bio-optical profiling floats: Calibrating transmissometers for use as optical sediment traps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estapa, Meg; Durkin, Colleen; Buesseler, Ken; Johnson, Rod; Feen, Melanie

2017-02-01

Our mechanistic understanding of the processes controlling the ocean's biological pump is limited, in part, by our lack of observational data at appropriate timescales. The "optical sediment trap" (OST) technique utilizes a transmissometer on a quasi-Lagrangian platform to collect sedimenting particles. This method could help fill the observational gap by providing autonomous measurements of particulate carbon (PC) flux in the upper mesopelagic ocean at high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we used a combination of field measurements and laboratory experiments to test hydrodynamic and zooplankton-swimmer effects on the OST method, and we quantitatively calibrated this method against PC flux measured directly in same-platform, neutrally buoyant sediment traps (NBSTs) during 5 monthly cruises at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. We found a well-correlated, positive relationship (R2=0.66, n=15) between the OST proxy, and the PC flux measured directly using NBSTs. Laboratory tests showed that scattering of light from multiple particles between the source and detector was unlikely to affect OST proxy results. We found that the carbon-specific attenuance of sinking particles was larger than literature values for smaller, suspended particles in the ocean, and consistent with variable carbon: size relationships reported in the literature for sinking particles. We also found evidence for variability in PC flux at high spatiotemporal resolution. Our results are consistent with the literature on particle carbon content and optical properties in the ocean, and support more widespread use of the OST proxy, with proper site-specific and platform-specific calibration, to better understand variability in the ocean biological pump.

Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

2014-12-01

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

A High-Resolution Speleothem Record From Florida of Atmospheric Teleconnections Since 1,500 Years Ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J. S.; van Beynen, P.; Asmerom, Y.

2008-12-01

Understanding atmospheric teleconnections between tropical, subtropical, and higher-latitude regions of the North Atlantic Ocean is necessary to better evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Here, we present a precisely dated, high- resolution speleothem record of stable isotopes and trace elements from Florida spanning the last 1,500 years. By using a multi-proxy approach, the different climatic influences were deconvolved, including the NAO, ENSO, PDO, and ITCZ, which all can affect our region. Further comparison using time-series analysis between our data and other high-resolution records covering this same period reveal differing influences of these teleconnections on geographic regions. Our record shows both the influence of changing rainfall above the cave and the influence of sea surface temperatures on atmospheric convection caused by atmospheric-oceanic variability over time.

Remote sensing of desert dust aerosols over the Sahel : potential use for health impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deroubaix, A. D.; Martiny, N. M.; Chiapello, I. C.; Marticorena, B. M.

2012-04-01

Since the end of the 70's, remote sensing monitors the desert dust aerosols due to their absorption and scattering properties and allows to make long time series which are necessary for air quality or health impact studies. In the Sahel, a huge health problem is the Meningitis Meningococcal (MM) epidemics that occur during the dry season : the dust has been suspected to be crucial to understand their onsets and dynamics. The Aerosol absorption Index (AI) is a semi-quantitative index derived from TOMS and OMI observations in the UV available at a spatial resolution of 1° (1979-2005) and 0.25° (2005-today) respectively. The comparison of the OMI-AI and AERONET Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) shows a good agreement at a daily time-step (correlation ~0.7). The comparison of the OMI-AI with the Particle Matter (PM) measurement of the Sahelian Dust Transect is lower (~0.4) at a daily time-step but it increases at a weekly time-step (~0.6). The OMI-AI reproduces the dust seasonal cycle over the Sahel and we conclude that the OMI-AI product at a 0.25° spatial resolution is suitable for health impact studies, especially at a weekly epidemiological time-step. Despite the AI is sensitive to the aerosol altitude, it provides a daily spatial information on dust. A preliminary investigation analysis of the link between weekly OMI AI and weekly WHO epidemiological data sets is presented in Mali and Niger, showing a good agreement between the AI and the onset of the MM epidemics with a constant lag (between 1 and 2 week). The next of this study is to analyse a deeper AI time series constituted by TOMS and OMI data sets. Based on the weekly ratios PM/AI at 2 stations of the Sahelian Dust Transect, a spatialized proxy for PM from the AI has been developed. The AI as a proxy for PM and other climate variables such as Temperature (T°), Relative Humidity (RH%) and the wind (intensity and direction) could then be used to analyze the link between those variables and the MM epidemics in the most concerned countries in Western Africa, which would be an important step towards a forecasting tool for the epidemics risks in Western Africa.

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cebula, Richard P.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1997-01-01

During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22.

Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

2005-01-01

We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Munchausen by proxy: a case, chart series, and literature review of older victims.

PubMed

Awadallah, Nida; Vaughan, Aaron; Franco, Kathleen; Munir, Farah; Sharaby, Na'ama; Goldfarb, Johanna

2005-08-01

The history of an older child victim of Munchausen by proxy (MBP) is described. He was referred for evaluation after repeated sinus surgeries for recurrent sinus infections believed to be related to a falsified history of an immunodeficiency. The perpetrator was the mother of this 14-year-old victim, consistent with the majority of such cases. This case prompted a review of cases of MBP in older children reported in our hospital as well as a literature search for other cases in older children. This study was a chart review of children over 6 years of age who had been evaluated by social services at the Children's Hospital at the Cleveland Clinic and reported as cases of Munchausen by proxy to Child Protective Services between January 2001 and June 2003. Also, an OVID, Psychline, and Pubmed literature review of published cases of Munchausen by proxy were identified, and cases occurring in the older child were selected for review. Older children who are the victims of Munchausen by proxy may have an induced illness, but falsified reports of symptoms and medical history to coerce the child to undergo medical procedures may be more common. Collusion of the victim with the perpetrator may also become a factor as the child ages and adopts the deception. Given the complex relationship that exists between the parent and child, it is difficult to predict whether the victim either will assist the caregiver in maintaining the factitious illness or be able to recognize the falsification. Older children who are the victims of Munchausen by proxy may fear consequences of revealing the factitious illness. Physicians must consider the possibility of this diagnosis whenever there are discrepancies in a child's illness that makes a factitious illness a consideration.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Evolution of solar irradiance during Holocene (Vieira+, 2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, L. E. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Krivova, N. A.; Usoskin, I.

2011-05-01

This is a composite total solar irradiance (TSI) time series for 9495BC to 2007AD constructed as described in Sect. 3.3 of the paper. Since the TSI is the main external heat input into the Earth's climate system, a consistent record covering as long period as possible is needed for climate models. This was our main motivation for constructing this composite TSI time series. In order to produce a representative time series, we divided the Holocene into four periods according to the available data for each period. Table 4 (see below) summarizes the periods considered and the models available for each period. After the end of the Maunder Minimum we compute daily values, while prior to the end of the Maunder Minimum we compute 10-year averages. For the period for which both solar disk magnetograms and continuum images are available (period 1) we employ the SATIRE-S reconstruction (Krivova et al. 2003A&A...399L...1K; Wenzler et al. 2006A&A...460..583W). SATIRE-T (Krivova et al. 2010JGRA..11512112K) reconstruction is used from the beginning of the Maunder Minimum (approximately 1640AD) to 1977AD. Prior to 1640AD reconstructions are based on cosmogenic isotopes (this paper). Different models of the Earth's geomagnetic field are available before and after approximately 5000BC. Therefore we treat periods 3 and 4 (before and after 5000BC) separately. Further details can be found in the paper. We emphasize that the reconstructions based on different proxies have different time resolutions. (1 data file).

High-Resolution Mg/Ca Ratios in a Coralline Red Alga as a Proxy for Bering Sea Temperature Variations and Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halfar, J.; Steffen, H.; Kronz, A.; Steneck, R. S.; Adey, W.; Lebednik, P. A.

2009-05-01

We present the first continuous high-resolution record of Mg/Ca variations within an encrusting coralline red alga of the species Clathromorphum nereostratum from Amchitka Island, Aleutian Islands. Mg/Ca ratios of individual growth increments were analyzed by measuring a single point electron microprobe transect yielding a resolution of 15 samples/year on average, generating a continuous record from 1830 to 1967 of algal Mg/Ca variations. Results show that Mg/Ca ratios in the high-Mg calcite skeleton display pronounced annual cyclicity and archive late spring to late fall sea surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the main season of algal growth. Mg/Ca values correlate well to local SST (ERSSTJun-Nov, 1902-1967; r = 0.73 for 5-year mean), as well as to an air temperature record from the same region. Our data correlate well to a shorter Mg/Ca record from a second site, corroborating the ability of the alga to reliably record regional environmental signals. In addition, Mg/Ca ratios relate well to a 29-year stable oxygen isotope time series measured on the same sample, which provides additional support for the use of Mg as a paleotemperature proxy in coralline red algae, that is, unlike stable oxygen isotopes, not influenced by salinity fluctuations. High spatial correlation to large-scale SST variability in the North Pacific is observed, with patterns of strongest correlation following the direction of major oceanographic features (i.e., the signature of the Alaska Current and the Alaskan Stream), which play a key role in the exchange of water masses between the North Pacific and the Bering Sea through Aleutian Island passages. The time series further displays significant teleconnections with the signature of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the northeast Pacific and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Influence of climate cycles on grapevine domestication and ancient migrations in Eurasia.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Maghradze, David; Failla, Osvaldo; Zavatti, Franco

2018-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the Holocenic climate cycles that may have influenced the domestication of grapevine in the Subcaucasian area and its subsequent spread in Eurasia. The analysis covered the longitudinal belt ranging from the Iberian Peninsula to Japan, seen as the preferential pathway for the Holocenic spread of grapevine and many other crops in Eurasia. Spectral analysis was considered as the criterion of investigation and the Holocenic cycles were analyzed considering different geochemical and biological proxies, of which seven are directly referred to vine. In this context the relation of the abovementioned proxies with spectral peaks of possible causal factors like Solar activity (SA), North Atlantic oceanic factors (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), and subtropical oceanic factors (El Nino Southern Oscillation - ENSO) was also analyzed. In order to acquire a sufficiently wide number of proxies sensitive to the causal factors, we referred to a latitudinal belt wider than the one colonized by vine, also acquiring proxy from the Scandinavian area, notoriously susceptible to North Atlantic forcings. The analysis of the proxy spectral peaks, considering 20 classes with a 50-years step in the 0-1000 years range, showed that the 50% of the classes have a higher frequency of peaks at East than West, the 20% a higher frequency at West than East and the 10% an equal frequency, showing the efficiency of the propagation of Western signals towards the center of Eurasia. The search of the causal factors spectral peaks in the proxy series showed that AMO, NAO and SA acted with a certain regularity on the entire belt investigated both latitudinally and longitudinally, while spectral peaks linked to ENSO underwent a considerable attenuation moving northward. Finally, the specific analysis on viticultural proxies showed common peaks with causal factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GOES-R AWG GLM Val Tool Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bateman, Monte; Mach, Douglas; Goodman, Steve; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2012-01-01

We are developing tools needed to enable the validation of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). In order to develop and test these tools, we have need of a robust, high-fidelity set of GLM proxy data. Many steps have been taken to ensure that the proxy data are high quality. LIS is the closest analog that exists for GLM, so it has been used extensively in developing the GLM proxy. We have verified the proxy data both statistically and algorithmically. The proxy data are pixel (event) data, called Level 1B. These data were then clustered into flashes by the Lightning Cluster-Filter Algorithm (LCFA), generating proxy Level 2 data. These were then compared with the data used to generate the proxy, and both the proxy data and the LCFA were validated. We have developed tools to allow us to visualize and compare the GLM proxy data with several other sources of lightning and other meteorological data (the so-called shallow-dive tool). The shallow-dive tool shows storm-level data and can ingest many different ground-based lightning detection networks, including: NLDN, LMA, WWLLN, and ENTLN. These are presented in a way such that it can be seen if the GLM is properly detecting the lightning in location and time comparable to the ground-based networks. Currently in development is the deep-dive tool, which will allow us to dive into the GLM data, down to flash, group and event level. This will allow us to assess performance in comparison with other data sources, and tell us if there are detection, timing, or geolocation problems. These tools will be compatible with the GLM Level-2 data format, so they can be used beginning on Day 0.

Changing climate in a pre-impact world: a multi-proxy paleotemperature reconstruction across the last million years of the Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woelders, L.; Vellekoop, J.; Reichart, G. J.; de Nooijer, L. J.; Sluijs, A.; Peterse, F.; Claeys, P. F.; Speijer, R. P.

2015-12-01

Climate instability during the last million years of the Cretaceous (67-66 Ma) is still poorly documented and not well understood. One of the reasons for this is that in deep time, different proxies are likely to yield different temperatures. This is because the application of calibrations based on present day temperature proxy relationships is affected by source organism evolution, differences in ocean chemistry and non-analogue processes. Only by combining temperature estimates derived from different, independent proxies, the problems with individual proxies can be cancelled out. A quantitative, multi-proxy temperature record from the latest Cretaceous therefore may provide a better insight in climate changes across this time interval. For such a multi-proxy research, sediments are required that yield both well-preserved foraminiferal calcite as well as organic biomarkers. Very few sites are known to provide such sedimentary records, but ODP Leg 174AX Site Bass River (New Jersey Shelf) has proven to be an excellent archive for paleotemperature reconstructions for the Cretaceous and Paleogene. We here present a multi-proxy, quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction of the last million years of the Cretaceous of the Bass River core. Benthic and planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O were determined, as well as the organic geochemical sea surface temperature proxy TEX86. This resulted in a unique coupled surface and bottom water temperature record of the latest Cretaceous. Our data suggest a ~2-6 ˚C bottom water warming and a ~4-6 ˚C surface water warming approximately 300 kyr before the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, followed by a cooling trend across the boundary. This warming event appears to coincide with the main phase of the Deccan Traps eruptions and therefore probably represents a global event.

Essays on School Quality and Student Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crispin, Laura M.

2012-01-01

In my first chapter, I explore the relationship between school size and student achievement where, conditional on observable educational inputs, school size is a proxy for factors that are difficult to measure directly ( e.g., school climate and organization). Using data from the NELS:88, I estimate a series of value-added education production…

Visits, Hits, Caching and Counting on the World Wide Web: Old Wine in New Bottles?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berthon, Pierre; Pitt, Leyland; Prendergast, Gerard

1997-01-01

Although web browser caching speeds up retrieval, reduces network traffic, and decreases the load on servers and browser's computers, an unintended consequence for marketing research is that Web servers undercount hits. This article explores counting problems, caching, proxy servers, trawler software and presents a series of correction factors…

Mesospheric temperature trends derived from standard phase-height measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Dieter H. W.; Entzian, Günter; Keckhut, Philippe

2017-10-01

New homogeneous time series of daily standard phase-height (SPH) and daily plasma scale-height (PSH) have been derived from a 50-year long-radio-wave measurement of the broadcasting station Allouis (France, 162 kHz). The signal was received at Kühlungsborn (54°N, 12°E, Mecklenburg, Germany) and the present series is a third release. The daily time series of SPH shows in its spectrum dominant modes which are typical for the solar cycle (SC), for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and for quasi-biannual oscillation (QBO), indicating solar and lower atmospheric influences. Surprisingly, the time series of daily PSH shows a band of dominant cycles larger than 16 years. In order to exclude the influence of the winter anomaly in the determination of column-integrated mesospheric temperature trends the phase-height-temperature procedure is confined to summer months. The derived thickness temperature of the mesosphere decreased statistically significant over the period 1959-2008 after pre-whitening with summer mean of solar sun spot numbers. The trend value is in the order of about -1.05 K/decade if the stratopause trend is excluded. The linear regression is more pronounced, -1.35 K/decade for the period of 1963-1985 (2 SCs), but weaker, -0.51 K/decade during 1986-2008 (last 2 SCs). The linear regression is in very good agreement with a mean column-integrated mesospheric trend derived from OHP-Lidar temperatures on a monthly mean basis for the last two SCs. This clearly shows that the thickness temperature of the mesosphere derived from phase-height measurement is a useful proxy for the long-term summer temperature change in the mesosphere from 1959 until 2008.

Phytoplankton production in the Sargasso Sea as determined using optical mooring data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. J.; Smith, R. C.; Marra, J.

1994-01-01

Optical measurements from an untended mooring provide high-frequency observations of in-water optical properties and permit the estimation of important biological parameters continuously as a function of time. A 9-month time series, composed of three separate deployments, of optical data from the BIOWATT 1987 deep-sea mooring located in the oligotrophic waters of the Sargasso Sea at 34 deg N, 70 deg W are presented. These data have been tested using several bio-optical models for the purpose of providing a continuous estimate of phytoplankton productivity. The data are discussed in the context of contemporaneous shipboard observations and for future ocean color satellite observations. We present a continuous estimation of phytoplankton productivity for the 9-month time series. Results from the first 70-day deployment are emphasized to demonstrate the utility of optical observations as proxy measures of biological parameters, to present preliminary analysis, and to compare our bio-optical observations with concurrent physical observations. The bio-optical features show variation in response to physical forcings including diel variations of incident solar irradiance, episodic changes corresponding to wind forcing, variability caused by advective mesoscale eddy events in the vicinity of the mooring, and seasonal variability corresponding to changes in solar radiation, shoaling of the mixed layer depth, and succession of phytoplankton populations.

Central American rainfall variations since 100 ka and moisture delivery to Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Johnson, L.; Burns, S.; Polyak, V.; Patterson, W.

2007-12-01

We present a rainfall history for Central America based on oxygen isotope values in Uranium-series dated stalagmites collected from the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica over parts of the Holocene and from 25 to 100 ka. The oxygen isotope values of modern rainfall in our study area within the heart of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are dominated by the amount effect and moisture source, and we interpret our data as a paleorainfall proxy. Our data show substantial oxygen isotope variability on centennial to multi-millennial time scales. Further, our paleorainfall time series is strongly correlated with the deuterium excess parameter in Greenland Ice, which suggests that the strength of the tropical hydrological cycle has modulated the flow of low-latitude moisture to Greenland on millennial time scales. Our results indicate a strong coupling between tropical and high latitude paleoclimate, that was likely linked via variations in the strength of the Hadley cell and its associated export of atmospheric moisture to the high latitudes. We observe the wettest periods in Central America when the Caribbean was warmer than 26.5 degrees C and the Caribbean to Pacific (cold tongue) SST gradient was largest, suggesting a combined Atlantic and Pacific Ocean control on ITCZ rainfall.

A Revised Set of Dendroclimatic Reconstructions of Summer Drought over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Mann, M. E.; Cook, E. R.

2002-12-01

We describe a revised set of dendroclimatic reconstructions of drought patterns over the conterminous U.S back to 1700. These reconstructions are based on a set of 483 drought-sensitive tree ring chronologies available across the continental U.S. used previously by Cook et al [Cook, E.R., D.M. Meko, D.W. Stahle, and M.K. Cleaveland, Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States, Journal of Climate, 12, 1145-1162, 1999]. In contrast with the "Point by Point" (PPR) local regression technique used by Cook et al (1999), the tree ring data were calibrated against the instrumental record of summer drought[June-August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)] based on application of the "Regularized Expectation Maximization" (RegEM) algorithm to relate proxy and instrumental data over a common (20th century) interval. This approach calibrates the proxy data set against the instrumental record by treating the reconstruction as initially missing data in the combined proxy/instrumental data matrix, and optimally estimating the mean and covariances of the combined data matrix through an iterative procedure which yields a reconstruction of the PDSI field with minimal error variance [Schneider, T., Analysis of Incomplete Climate Data: Estimation of Mean Values and Covariance Matrices and Imputation of Missing Values, Journal of Climate, 14, 853-871, 2001; Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies', Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 139-1-139-4, 2002; Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., The Performance of Covariance-Based Methods of Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary Forcing, J. Climate, accepted, 2002]. As in Cook et al (1999), a screening procedure was first used to select an optimal subset of candidate tree-ring drought predictors, and the predictors (tree ring data) and predictand (instrumental PDSI) were pre-whitened prior to calibration (with serial correlation added back into the reconstruction at the end of the procedure). The PDSI field was separated into 8 relatively homogenous regions of summer drought though a cluster analysis, and three distinct calibration schemes were investigated: (i) 'global' (i.e., entire conterminous U.S. domain) proxy data calibrated against 'global' PDSI; (ii) regional proxy data calibrated against regional PDSI, and (iii) global proxy data calibrated against regional PDSI. The greatest cross-validated skill was evident for case (iii), suggesting the existence of useful non-local information in the tree ring predictor set. The resulting reconstructions of drought were compared against the previous reconstructions of Cook et al (1999) back to 1700, with very similar results found for the domain mean and regional mean time series. Cross-validation results based on withheld late 19th/early 20th century instrumental data [and a regionally-limited extension of cross-validation results back to mid 19th century based on long available instrumental series] both suggest a modest improvement in reconstructive skill over the PPR approach. Differences at the regional scale are evident for particular years and for decadal drought episodes. At the continental scale, the 1930s "Dust Bowl" remains the most severe drought event since 1700 within the context of the estimated uncertainties, but more severe episodes may have occurred at regional scales in past centuries.

Atmospheric effects on earth rotation and polar motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1988-01-01

The variability in the earth's rotation rate not due to known solid body tides is dominated on time scales of about four years and less by variations in global atmospheric angular momentum (M) as derived from the zonal wind distribution. Among features seen in the length of day record produced by atmospheric forcing are the strong seasonal cycle, quasi-periodic fluctuations around 40-50 days, and an interannual signal forced by a strong Pacific warming event known as the El Nino. Momentum variations associated with these time scales arise in different latitudinal regions. Furthermore, winds in the stratosphere make a particularly important contribution to seasonal variability. Other related topics discussed here are: (1) comparisons of the M series from wind fields produced at different weather centers; (2) the torques that dynamically link the atmosphere and earth; and (3) longer-term nonatmospheric effects that can be seen upon removal of the atmospheric signal.an interestigapplication for climatological purposes is the use of the historical earth rotation series as a proxy for atmospheric wind variability prior to the era of upper-air data. Lastly, results pertaining to the role of atmospheric pressure systems in exciting rapid polar motion are presented.

Requirements for a reliable millennium temperature reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, Bo; Ljungqvist, Fredrik

2014-05-01

Quantitative temperature reconstructions are hampered by several problems. Proxy records are sparse which is witnessed by the fact that roughly half of all available high-resolution millennia-long proxy data have been published in the last five years. Moreover, proxies are inhomogeneously distributed around the globe and they often have coarse temporal resolution. The period of overlap between proxies and instrumental observations - the calibration period - is brief and dominated by a strong warming trend. Furthermore, proxies are often only weakly correlated to temperature and it is common that some form of screening procedure is applied to select only informative proxies. We study the influence of these limitations on the reliability of temperature reconstructions for the previous millennium. This influence depends on the spatial and temporal correlation structure of the surface temperature field. It also depends on the reconstruction methodology. We use gridded surface temperature data from GISTEMP and HadCRUT4 to investigate the geographical distribution of the spatial decorrelation length and of the temporal decorrelation time. The spatial decorrelation length varies with more than a factor of 5 with the largest values in the region dominated by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The temporal decorrelation time varies less with typical values of 1-2 years over land and 2-5 years over ocean. We also investigate the correlations between proxies and local temperatures (using the 91 proxies from Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012) and between local temperatures and the NH mean temperature. These correlations have typical values around 0.3 but cover a wide range from weakly negative to larger than 0.8. The results outlined above allow us to identify regions where the effect of the lack of proxies is most important. They also inform us on the consequences of the short calibration period and on the influence of the recent trend. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of a weak proxy/temperature relationship on three different simple reconstruction methodologies. We show that the size and strength of this effect depends strongly on the chosen methodology.

Climatic interpretation of tree-ring methoxyl d2H time-series from a central alpine larch forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riechelmann, Dana F. C.; Greule, Markus; Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.; Esper, Jan; Keppler, Frank

2017-04-01

We measured stable hydrogen isotope ratios of lignin methoxyl groups (d2HLM) in high elevation larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Simplon Valley in southern Switzerland. Thirty-seven larch trees were sampled and five individuals analysed for their d2HLM values at annual (1971-2009) and pentadal resolution (1746-2009). Testing the climate response of the d2HLM series, the annually resolved series show a positive correlation of r = 0.60 with June/July precipitation and weaker but negative correlation with June/July temperature. In addition, a negative correlation with June-August d2H in precipitation of the nearby GNIP station in Locarno is observed. The pentadally resolved d2HLM series show no significant correlation to climate parameters. The positive correlation of the annually resolved data to summer precipitation is uncommon to d2H measurements from tree-rings (Feakins et al., 2013; Helle and Schleser, 2004; McCarroll and Loader, 2004; Mischel et al., 2015; White et al., 1994). However, we explain the positive association with warm season hydroclimate as follows: methoxyl groups of lignin are directly formed from tissues in the xylem water. More precipitation during June and July, which are on average relatively dry month, results in higher d2H values of the xylem water and therefore, higher d2H value in the lignin methoxyl groups. Therefore, we suggest that d2HLM values of high elevation larch trees might likely serve as a summer precipitation proxy. References: Feakins, S.J., Ellsworth, P.V., Sternberg, L.d.S.L., 2013. Lignin methoxyl hydrogen isotope rations in a coastal ecosystem. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 121: 54-66. Helle, G., Schleser, G.H., 2004. Interpreting Climate Proxies from Tree-rings. In: Fischer, H., Floeser, G., Kumke, T., Lohmann, G., Miller, H., Negendank, J.F.W., et al., editors. The Climate in Historical Times. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 129-148. McCarroll, D., Loader, N.J., 2004. Stable isotopes in tree rings. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23: 771-801. Mischel, M., Esper, J., Keppler, F., Greule, M., Werner, W., 2015. d2H, d13C and d18O from whole wood, a-cellulose and lignin methoxyl groups in Pinus sylvestris: a multi-parameter approach. Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies, 1-16. White, J.W.C., Lawrence, J.R., Broecker, W.S., 1994. Modeling and interpreting D/H ratios in tree rings: A test case of white pine in the northeastern United States. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 58: 851-862.

Fiber optic sensing technology for detecting gas hydrate formation and decomposition.

PubMed

Rawn, C J; Leeman, J R; Ulrich, S M; Alford, J E; Phelps, T J; Madden, M E

2011-02-01

A fiber optic-based distributed sensing system (DSS) has been integrated with a large volume (72 l) pressure vessel providing high spatial resolution, time-resolved, 3D measurement of hybrid temperature-strain (TS) values within experimental sediment-gas hydrate systems. Areas of gas hydrate formation (exothermic) and decomposition (endothermic) can be characterized through this proxy by time series analysis of discrete data points collected along the length of optical fibers placed within a sediment system. Data are visualized as an animation of TS values along the length of each fiber over time. Experiments conducted in the Seafloor Process Simulator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory clearly indicate hydrate formation and dissociation events at expected pressure-temperature conditions given the thermodynamics of the CH(4)-H(2)O system. The high spatial resolution achieved with fiber optic technology makes the DSS a useful tool for visualizing time-resolved formation and dissociation of gas hydrates in large-scale sediment experiments.

Fiber optic sensing technology for detecting gas hydrate formation and decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawn, C. J.; Leeman, J. R.; Ulrich, S. M.; Alford, J. E.; Phelps, T. J.; Madden, M. E.

2011-02-01

A fiber optic-based distributed sensing system (DSS) has been integrated with a large volume (72 l) pressure vessel providing high spatial resolution, time-resolved, 3D measurement of hybrid temperature-strain (TS) values within experimental sediment-gas hydrate systems. Areas of gas hydrate formation (exothermic) and decomposition (endothermic) can be characterized through this proxy by time series analysis of discrete data points collected along the length of optical fibers placed within a sediment system. Data are visualized as an animation of TS values along the length of each fiber over time. Experiments conducted in the Seafloor Process Simulator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory clearly indicate hydrate formation and dissociation events at expected pressure-temperature conditions given the thermodynamics of the CH4-H2O system. The high spatial resolution achieved with fiber optic technology makes the DSS a useful tool for visualizing time-resolved formation and dissociation of gas hydrates in large-scale sediment experiments.

The speleothem record from Sicily, an important palaeoclimate testimony in the heart of the Mediterranean: overview of current research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deininger, Michael; Vattano, Marco; McDermott, Frank; Frisia, Silvia; Borsato, Andrea; Frank, Norbert; Spötl, Christoph; Scholz, Denis; Di Maggio, Cipriano; Madonia, Giuliana

2017-04-01

Sicily is located in the heart of the Mediterranean and takes a strategic position between the western and eastern Mediterranean as well as between northern Africa and continental Europe. It is a place of a diverse and great cultural heritage that goes back many thousands of years; it had been colonised by Phoenicians, Carthaginians, Greeks and Romans in Ancient times and served as a trading post and granary - the latter particularly for the Romans. Climate change scenarios studies suggest that Mediterranean ecosystems could change into deserts as a consequence of shifting temperature and precipitation patterns unparalleled in the Holocene period (Guiot and Cramer, 2016). It is, therefore, essential to shed light on past precipitation changes to gain knowledge on the timing, dynamics and causes of these changes by making use of natural environmental archives (such as speleothems). This information is not only important for palaeoclimate data-model comparisons but can also give archaeologists a wealth of information when studying cultural transformations. Speleothems are valuable natural archives of past climatic and environmental conditions on the continents. Major strengths include their suitability for accurate U-series age determinations and their preservation of multiple quasi-independent climate proxies - that can be linked to precipitation changes. Hence, speleothems proxy time series from the Mediterranean can be regarded as an important testimony of past environmental and climate changes (including precipitation) that allow to provide answers to the aforementioned questions. Here we present first result of ongoing speleothem research on Sicily, with focuses on Pietrazzi cave (Grotta dei Pietrazzi) located west of Palermo. It developed in limestone (limestone consisting of bioclastic packstone/wackestones, fore reef coral rudstones (calcirudite) and calcarenites.) of the Calcare di Piano Battaglia Formation. Pietrazzi cave is more than 600 m in length and has a depth of roughly 90m. We will show preliminary analysis of three stalagmites (PZ-1, PZ-2, PZ-3) including U-Th age models and stable oxygen and carbon isotope data of PZ-1. Guiot, J., and Cramer, W.: Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems, Science, 354, 465, 2016.

Impact of the smoking ban on the volume of bar sales in Ireland: evidence from time series analysis.

PubMed

Cornelsen, Laura; Normand, Charles

2012-05-01

This paper is the first to estimate the economic impact of a comprehensive smoking ban in all enclosed public places of work, on bars in Ireland. The demand in bars, represented by a monthly index of sales volume, is explained by relative prices in bars, prices of alcohol sold in off-licences and the aggregate retail sales (ARS) as a proxy for general economic activity and incomes. The smoking ban is included into the model as a step dummy and the modelling is done using ARIMAX strategy. The results show a reduction in the volume of sales in bars by -4.6% (p<0.01) following the ban. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

INT (2-(4-Iodophenyl)-3-(4-Nitrophenyl)-5-(Phenyl) Tetrazolium Chloride) Is Toxic to Prokaryote Cells Precluding Its Use with Whole Cells as a Proxy for In Vivo Respiration.

PubMed

Villegas-Mendoza, Josué; Cajal-Medrano, Ramón; Maske, Helmut

2015-11-01

Prokaryote respiration is expected to be responsible for more than half of the community respiration in the ocean, but the lack of a practical method to measure the rate of prokaryote respiration in the open ocean resulted in very few published data leaving the role of organotrophic prokaryotes open to debate. Oxygen consumption rates of oceanic prokaryotes measured with current methods may be biased due to pre-incubation size filtration and long incubation times both of which can change the physiological and taxonomic profile of the sample during the incubation period. In vivo INT reduction has been used in terrestrial samples to estimate respiration rates, and recently, the method was introduced and applied in aquatic ecology. We measured oxygen consumption rates and in vivo INT reduction to formazan in cultures of marine bacterioplankton communities, Vibrio harveyi and the eukaryote Isochrysis galbana. For prokaryotes, we observed a decrease in oxygen consumption rates with increasing INT concentrations between 0.05 and 1 mM. Time series after 0.5 mM INT addition to prokaryote samples showed a burst of in vivo INT reduction to formazan and a rapid decline of oxygen consumption rates to zero within less than an hour. Our data for non-axenic eukaryote cultures suggest poisoning of the eukaryote. Prokaryotes are clearly poisoned by INT on time scales of less than 1 h, invalidating the interpretation of in vivo INT reduction to formazan as a proxy for oxygen consumption rates.

Water Isotope Proxy-Proxy and Proxy-Model Convergence for Late Pleistocene East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, S. C.; Holbourn, A.; Kubota, Y.; Lee, K. E.; Liu, Z.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Confidence in reconstruction of East Asian paleomonsoon rainfall using precipitation isotope proxies is a matter of considerable debate, largely due to the lack of correlation between precipitation amount and isotopic composition in the present climate. We present four new, very highly resolved records spanning the past 300,000 years ( 200 year sample spacing) from IODP Site U1429 in the East China Sea. We demonstrate that all the orbital- and millennial-scale variance in the onshore Yangtze River Valley speleothem δ18O record1 is also embedded in the offshore Site U1429 seawater δ18O record (derived from the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and sea surface temperature reconstructions). Signal replication in these two independent terrestrial and marine archives, both controlled by the same monsoon system, uniquely identifies δ18O of precipitation as the primary driver of the precession-band variance in both records. This proxy-proxy convergence also eliminates a wide array of other drivers that have been called upon as potential contaminants to the precipitation δ18O signal recorded by these proxies. We compare East Asian precipitation isotope proxy records to precipitation amount from a CCSM3 transient climate model simulation of the past 300,000 years using realistic insolation, ice volume, greenhouse gasses, and sea level boundary conditions. This model-proxy comparison suggests that both Yangtze River Valley precipitation isotope proxies (seawater and speleothem δ18O) track changes in summer-monsoon rainfall amount at orbital time scales, as do precipitation isotope records from the Pearl River Valley2 (leaf wax δ2H) and Borneo3 (speleothem δ18O). Notably, these proxy records all have significantly different spectral structure indicating strongly regional rainfall patterns that are also consistent with model results. Transient, isotope-enabled model simulations will be necessary to more thoroughly evaluate these promising results, and to evaluate potentially distinct regional mechanisms linking rainfall amount to precipitation isotopes at orbital and millennial time scales in other monsoon regions. 1 Cheng et al., 10.1038/nature18591 2 Thomas et al., 10.1130/G36289.1 3 Carolin et al., 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.01.028

Changes in the NDVI of Boreal Forests over the period 1984 to 2003 measured using time series of Landsat TM/ETM+ surface reflectance and the GIMMS AVHRR NDVI record.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, A. M.; Rocha, A. V.; Goulden, M. L.

2006-12-01

There is a prevailing opinion that the boreal landscape is undergoing change as a result of warming temperatures leading to earlier springs, greater forest fire frequency and possibly CO2 fertilization. One widely- used line of evidence is the GIMMS AVHRR NDVI record. Several studies suggest increasing rates of photosynthesis in boreal forests from 1982 to 1991 (based on NDVI increases) while others suggest declining photosynthesis from 1996 to 2003. We suspect that a portion of these changes are due to the successional stage of the forests. We compiled a time-series of atmospherically-corrected Landsat TM/ETM+ images spanning the period 1984 to 2003 over the BOREAS Northern Study Area and compared spatial and temporal patterns of NDVI between the two records. The Landsat time series is higher resolution and, together with the Canadian Fire Service Large Fire Database, provides stand-age information. We then (1) analyzed the agreement between the Landsat and GIMMS AVHRR time series; (2) determined how the stage of forest succession affected NDVI; (3) assessed how the calculation method of annual averages of NDVI affects decadal-scale trends. The agreement between the Landsat and the AVHRR was reasonable although the depression of NDVI associated with the aerosols from the Pinatubo volcano was greater in the GIMMS time series. Pixels containing high proportions of stands burned within a decade of the observation period showed very high gains in NDVI while the more mature stands were constant. While NDVI appears to exhibit a large sensitivity to the presence of snow, the choice of a May to September averaging period for NDVI over a June to August averaging period did not affect the interannual patterns in NDVI at this location because the snow pack was seldom present in either of these periods. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of wild fire will prove useful in interpreting trends of remotely-sensed proxies of photosynthesis.

Merging Multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3 Past-1000 Ensemble Simulations with Tree Ring Proxy Data by Optimal Interpolation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Luo, Yong; Xing, Pei; Nie, Suping; Tian, Qinhua

2015-04-01

Two sets of gridded annual mean surface air temperature in past millennia over the Northern Hemisphere was constructed employing optimal interpolation (OI) method so as to merge the tree ring proxy records with the simulations from CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project). Both the uncertainties in proxy reconstruction and model simulations can be taken into account applying OI algorithm. For better preservation of physical coordinated features and spatial-temporal completeness of climate variability in 7 copies of model results, we perform the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis to truncate the ensemble mean field as the first guess (background field) for OI. 681 temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies are collected and screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and Past Global Changes (PAGES-2k) project. Firstly, two methods (variance matching and linear regression) are employed to calibrate the tree ring chronologies with instrumental data (CRUTEM4v) individually. In addition, we also remove the bias of both the background field and proxy records relative to instrumental dataset. Secondly, time-varying background error covariance matrix (B) and static "observation" error covariance matrix (R) are calculated for OI frame. In our scheme, matrix B was calculated locally, and "observation" error covariance are partially considered in R matrix (the covariance value between the pairs of tree ring sites that are very close to each other would be counted), which is different from the traditional assumption that R matrix should be diagonal. Comparing our results, it turns out that regional averaged series are not sensitive to the selection for calibration methods. The Quantile-Quantile plots indicate regional climatologies based on both methods are tend to be more agreeable with regional reconstruction of PAGES-2k in 20th century warming period than in little ice age (LIA). Lager volcanic cooling response over Asia and Europe in context of recent millennium are detected in our datasets than that revealed in regional reconstruction from PAGES-2k network. Verification experiments have showed that the merging approach really reconcile the proxy data and model ensemble simulations in an optimal way (with smaller errors than both of them). Further research is needed to improve the error estimation on them.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Temperature record and sapropel formation during the late Pliocene in central Mediterranean: a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plancq, Julien; Grossi, Vincent; Huguet, Carme; Pittet, Bernard; Rosell-Mele, Antoni; Mattioli, Emanuela

2014-05-01

The late Pliocene (Piacenzian; 3.6-2.6 Myr) in the Mediterranean region is characterized by the deposition of organic-rich sedimentary layers named sapropels. Sapropel formation has been related to the strengthening of the precessionally-controlled African monsoon, triggering enhanced primary productivity and/or improved organic matter preservation. However, the relative importance of surface-ocean productivity versus deep-water preservation for sapropel formation remains a long standing debate among the science community. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to characterize long-term environmental conditions and to discuss sapropel formation during the late Pliocene at Punta Grande/Punta Piccola sections (southwest Sicily). Sea and air temperatures were reconstructed using all the lipid biomarker-based temperature proxies currently available: the alkenone unsaturation index (UK'37), the tetraether index (TEX86), the Long-chain Diol Index (LDI), and the degree of methylation/cyclization of branched tetraether (MBT/CBT). Results show that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were relatively stable throughout the late Pliocene, but that consistent increases are recorded in most sapropel layers. SST record was then compared with variations in total organic carbon proportions, lipid biomarkers contents and nannofossil assemblages. Based on these observations, two mechanisms of formation can be inferred for each sapropel. A first series of sapropels is likely due to a better preservation of organic matter, due to the development of a thermohaline stratification of the water column and to oxygen depleted bottom waters. The second series of sapropels is more likely due to enhanced primary productivity in a non-stratified water column.

The Role of Anthropogenic Activity and Climate on δ15N Values of Cave Bat Guano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleary, D. M.; Onac, B. P.; Forray, F. L.; Wynn, J. G.

2016-12-01

Interest in the use of bat guano, a paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental resource, has rapidly increased over the past decade. However, to this point the utility of the δ15N values of guano as a potential proxy remains poorly understood. In contrast to the preservation of the original carbon isotopic composition of guano, δ15N values have the potential to be altered as a result of processes of nitrogen (N) cycling such as denitrification. However, the probability of N loss is relatively diminished in younger guano. Here we present a 1.5 m guano core from Zidită Cave in western Romania that began accumulating at ca. 913 ± 30 yr BP. To determine the utility of N isotopes in guano studies, the δ15N time-series was compared to δ13C time series and pollen records of the same core to determine if the environmental impact (pollen) or water availability (δ13C values) has an effect on N cycling. Unlike to previous guano studies, the N content in the core is nearly constant (%N > 9 %) for over 1 m of the core, indicating limited diagenesis. Although major changes in anthropogenic activities may have influenced some δ15N variation, some inconsistencies suggest this is not the primary controller. However, the correlation between δ15N and δ13C values (p < 0.01) in this C3-plant dominated ecosystem has been interpreted to reflect variation driven largely by water availability. Wetter periods indicated by lower δ13C values correspond with higher δ15N values of guano. These results indicate that when the area surrounding the Zidită Cave receives an increase in rainfall the N-cycle becomes more open with a decreased rate of denitrification or other processes that accumulate 15N in the soil reservoir. A 10-year instrumental precipitation dataset agrees with the relationship found between δ13C and δ15N time series. These results suggest that guano δ15N values from Zidită Cave are a suitable proxy record of climate for this type of system, but we emphasize that this coupling of processes may not be universal. Over the past 60 years the δ15N values have decreased by 5.5 ‰, indicating that the N-cycle has been approaching a more conservative state in response to drier conditions. From this study it is clear that the potential utility of δ15N of guano (climate and state of the N-cycle) may have previously been overlooked.

Suspected Offshore Chalcolithic/Early Bronze Age Tsunamigenic Sediments: Jisr al Zarka, Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiulienieva, N.; Braun, Y.; Katz, T.; Goodman-Tchernov, B. N.; Suchkov, I.

2017-12-01

Offshore tsunami deposits are a potentially important sedimentological archive for past tsunamis. They have been identified offshore of Israel using granulometric, geoarchaeological, and micropaleontological indicators. Recent advances in tsunami sedimentological research have put forth a series of new proxies that may be useful tools for tsunami deposit identification. The well-studied offshore deposits of Israel provide a unique opportunity to test some of these proxies because they present good distinction between tsunami and non-tsunami deposits and they can be associated with a rich historical record and archaeological artifacts. In this study, a 219 cm long sediment core, retrieved from a 15.3 m water depth, situated in about 5 km to the north from well studied shallow shelf, offshore Caesarea. Based on the previously used criteria three layers in the new core were identified as tsunami-generated. Two of these correlated to previously described tsunami events in Caesarea; 749 AD and 1500 BC. The third layer gave the time frame from 5.6 to 6 ka BP, making this event the oldest identified in the Eastern Mediterranean to date. Identified unusual layers were attributed to tsunami-generated sedimentary sequences, based on both visually recognizable indicators and the results of laboratory analyses. FT-IR, XRD, and XRF analysis were also applied. The results of this study allow to make following conclusions: (1) visual tsunami indicators in the studied core are similar to those in Caesarea, but lack archaeological debris; (2) while distinct deviation of granulometric coefficients (mean, median, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis) correlated to tsunami layers, the additional proxies of deposition rate and mollusk assemblage excluded one deviated layer from tsunamigenic-designation; (3) the results of XRF, FT-IR, XRD showed that they are not useful as independent methods at this study site.

Cryptic Species and Vital Effects of Planktonic Foraminifera and the Implications for the B/Ca Carbonate System Proxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborne, E.; Thunell, R.; Bizimis, M.; Buckley, W. P., Jr.; Sadekov, A.

2017-12-01

The concentration of boron in marine carbonates (B/Ca ratio) has been proposed to covary with seawater carbonate chemistry. However, a number of studies have evaluated the B/Ca proxy in planktonic foraminifera and found that boron incorporation may not be a straightforward process. The majority of previous research has been dedicated to tropical species that host large photosynthetic symbionts, which interfere with ambient carbonate chemistry and the incorporation of boron into the calcite lattice. This study focuses on evaluating B/Ca of subtropical and subpolar species that are asymbiontic or host small intra-shell non-dinoflagellate symbionts (Globigerina bulloides, Neogloboquadrina incompta and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei). Size-fraction replicate B/Ca measurements spanning a year-long sediment trap time-series generally indicate no size-dependent uptake of boron for these species, further supporting that symbionts influence/complicate boron incorporation/concentration. Both Neogloboquadrina species indicate strong correlation with the calcite saturation of seawater, carbonate ion concentration and pH that agree well with a recently published Pacific core-top calibration. However the relationship between G. bulloides and these variables is more complex. The presence of two cryptic species of G. bulloides (encrusted and normal) in our study region with documented offsets in stable isotopic composition also causes the unexpected differences between pooled trace element sample values and carbonate chemistry. Individual shell geochemistries determined by laser ablation ICP-MS indicate that the encrusted morphospecies have higher boron concentrations relative to the normal morphospecies. Based on these results we conclude that B/Ca ratios of non-dinoflagellate/symbiont-barren foraminifera faithfully record seawater carbonate chemistry. However inter-species and morphospecies differences may be significant and careful application of the B/Ca proxy to a single morphospecies is essential to creating meaningful data.

GDGT and alkenone flux in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Implications for the TEX86 and UK137 paleothermometers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, Julie; Tierney, Jessica E.

2016-01-01

The TEX86 and molecular biomarker proxies have been broadly applied in down-core marine sediments to reconstruct past sea surface temperature (SST). Although both TEX86 and have been interpreted as proxies for mean annual SST throughout the global ocean, regional studies of GDGTs and alkenones in sinking particles are required to understand the influence of seasonality, depth distribution and diagenesis on downcore variability. We measure GDGT and alkenone flux, as well as the TEX86 and indices in a 4-year sediment trap time series (2010-2014) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM), and compare these data with core-top sediments at the same location. GDGT and alkenone fluxes do not show a consistent seasonal cycle, however the largest flux peaks for both occurs in winter. co-varies with SST over the 4-year sampling interval, but the -SST relationship in this data set implies a smaller slope or non-linearity at high temperatures when compared with existing calibrations. Furthermore, the flux-weighted value from sinking particles is significantly lower than that of underlying core-top sediments, suggesting preferential diagenetic loss of the tri-unsaturated alkenone in sediments. TEX86 does not co-vary with SST, suggesting production in the subsurface upper water column. The flux-weighted mean TEX86 matches that of core-top sediments, confirming that TEX86 in the nGoM reflects local planktonic production rather than allochthonous or in-situ sedimentary production. We explore potential sources of uncertainty in both proxies in the nGoM, but demonstrate that they show nearly identical trends in 20th century SST, despite these factors.

Solar cycles and depositional processes in annual 10Be from two varved lake sediment records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, Markus; Muscheler, Raimund; Brauer, Achim; Adolphi, Florian; Ott, Florian; Kienel, Ulrike; Dräger, Nadine; Słowiński, Michał; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran

2015-10-01

Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (∼solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r = 0.5, p = 0.05, n = 16; JC: r = 0.46, p = 0.03, n = 22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Beatmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Becomposite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Beatmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r = 0.49, p = 0.01, n = 25) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

Incomplete Early Childhood Immunization Series and Missing Fourth DTaP Immunizations; Missed Opportunities or Missed Visits?

PubMed

Robison, Steve G

2013-01-01

The successful completion of early childhood immunizations is a proxy for overall quality of early care. Immunization statuses are usually assessed by up-to-date (UTD) rates covering combined series of different immunizations. However, series UTD rates often only bear on which single immunization is missing, rather than the success of all immunizations. In the US, most series UTD rates are limited by missing fourth DTaP-containing immunizations (diphtheria/tetanus/pertussis) due at 15 to 18 months of age. Missing 4th DTaP immunizations are associated either with a lack of visits at 15 to 18 months of age, or to visits without immunizations. Typical immunization data however cannot distinguish between these two reasons. This study compared immunization records from the Oregon ALERT IIS with medical encounter records for two-year olds in the Oregon Health Plan. Among those with 3 valid DTaPs by 9 months of age, 31.6% failed to receive a timely 4th DTaP; of those without a 4th DTaP, 42.1% did not have any provider visits from 15 through 18 months of age, while 57.9% had at least one provider visit. Those with a 4th DTaP averaged 2.45 encounters, while those with encounters but without 4th DTaPs averaged 2.23 encounters.

Fragility of estimated spatial temperature patterns in climate field reconstructions of the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Vaccaro, A.; Guillot, D.; Rajaratnam, B.

2013-12-01

Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the Common Era can provide insight into dynamical causes of low-frequency climate variability. For instance, the Mann et al. [2009] study found that the reconstructed sea-surface temperature difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (hereinafter MCA - LIA) is marked by a La-Niña like pattern over the tropical Pacific, and proposed dynamical explanations for this observation. In this talk, we assess the robustness of such spatial patterns. First we examine the impact of the CFR methodology. Starting with the network of Mann et al. [2008] (hereinafter M08), we perform temperature reconstruction using four different CFR techniques: RegEM-TTLS [Schneider, 2001], the Mann et al. [2009] implementation of RegEM-TTLS (hereinafter M09), Canonical Correlation Analysis [Smerdon et al., 2010, CCA] and GraphEM [Guillot et al., in revision]. We find that results are greatly method-dependent even with identical inputs. While the M09 reconstruction displays a La Niña-like pattern over the tropical Pacific for MCA - LIA, CCA gives a neutral pattern, RegEM-TTLS and GraphEM both display El Niño-like pattern but show different amplitudes. Next we assess a given CFR technique's sensitivity to the selection of inputs. Proxies are selected based on the statistical significance of their correlations with HadCRUT3v annual temperature. A multiple hypothesis test [Ventura et al., 2004] is conducted to preclude spurious correlations. This choice has a large impact on resulting CFRs. In particular, whether the correlation is calculated between local or regional temperature-proxy pairs determines the number of significant records included in the proxy network. This in turn greatly affects the reconstructed spatial patterns and the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature time series with all CFR methods investigated. In order to further analyze CFRs' sensitivities to the abovementioned procedural choices, we assemble an updated multi-proxy network and produce a new 2000-year-long global temperature reconstruction. The network expands upon the existing M08 network by screening tree-ring proxies for the 'divergence problem' [D'Arrigo et al., 2008] and adds 58 non tree-ring proxies, of which 28 are located in the tropics and 11 are available within at least the past 1500 years. Overall, considerable differences are still evident among reconstructions using different CFR methods. Yet such differences are smaller using the updated proxy network compared with using the M08 network, consistent with pseudoproxy studies [Wang et al, 2013]. Our results collectively highlight the fragility of reconstructed patterns in the current state of proxy networks and CFR methods. We conclude that dynamical interpretations of such patterns are premature until these technical aspects are resolved. Reference: Wang, J., Emile-Geay, J., Guillot, D., Smerdon, J. E., and Rajaratnam, B.: Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 3015-3060, doi:10.5194/cpd-9-3015-2013, 2013.

Munchausen syndrome by proxy caused by ipecac poisoning.

PubMed

Carter, Kathryn Elizabeth; Izsak, Eugene; Marlow, James

2006-09-01

To present a case of Munchausen syndrome by proxy caused by ipecac poisoning to increase the awareness of their warning signs and symptoms so that they may be recognized and diagnosed earlier. Report of one case of a child who was determined to be a victim of Munchausen syndrome by proxy by ipecac poisoning who was hospitalized multiple times over a 4-year period at 2 different hospitals before an accurate diagnosis was made.

Soil carbon cycling proxies: Understanding their critical role in predicting climate change feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Vanessa L.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; DeAngelis, Kristen

The complexity of processes and interactions that drive soil C dynamics necessitate the use of proxy variables to represent soil characteristics that cannot be directly measured (correlative proxies), or that aggregate information about multiple soil characteristics into one variable (integrative proxies). These proxies have proven useful for understanding the soil C cycle, which is highly variable in both space and time, and are now being used to make predictions of the C fate and persistence under future climate scenarios. As these proxies are used at increasingly larger scales, the C pools and processes that proxies represent must be thoughtfully consideredmore » in order to minimize uncertainties in empirical understanding, as well as in model parameters and in model outcomes. The importance of these uncertainties is further amplified by the current need to make predictions of the C cycle for the non steady state environmental conditions resulting from global climate change. To clarify the appropriate uses of proxy variables, we provide specific examples of proxy variables that could improve decision making, adaptation choices, and modeling skill, while not foreclosing on – and also encouraging – continued work on their mechanistic underpinnings. We explore the use of three common soil proxies used to study soil organic matter: metabolic quotient, clay content, and physical fractionation. We also consider emerging data types, specifically genome-sequence data, and how these serve as proxies for microbial community activities. We opine that the demand for increasing mechanistic detail, and the flood of data from new imaging and genetic techniques, does not replace the value of correlative and integrative proxies--variables that are simpler, easier, or cheaper to measure. By closely examining the current knowledge gaps and broad assumptions in soil C cycling with the proxies already in use, we can develop new hypotheses and specify criteria for new and needed proxies.« less

Prediction of GWL with the help of GRACE TWS for unevenly spaced time series data in India : Analysis of comparative performances of SVR, ANN and LRM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Amritendu; Ramachandran, Parthasarathy

2018-03-01

Prediction of Ground Water Level (GWL) is extremely important for sustainable use and management of ground water resource. The motivations for this work is to understand the relationship between Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water change (ΔTWS) data and GWL, so that ΔTWS could be used as a proxy measurement for GWL. In our study, we have selected five observation wells from different geographic regions in India. The datasets are unevenly spaced time series data which restricts us from applying standard time series methodologies and therefore in order to model and predict GWL with the help of ΔTWS, we have built Linear Regression Model (LRM), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Comparative performances of LRM, SVR and ANN have been evaluated with the help of correlation coefficient (ρ) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the actual and fitted (for training dataset) or predicted (for test dataset) values of GWL. It has been observed in our study that ΔTWS is highly significant variable to model GWL and the amount of total variations in GWL that could be explained with the help of ΔTWS varies from 36.48% to 74.28% (0.3648 ⩽R2 ⩽ 0.7428) . We have found that for the model GWL ∼ Δ TWS, for both training and test dataset, performances of SVR and ANN are better than that of LRM in terms of ρ and RMSE. It also has been found in our study that with the inclusion of meteorological variables along with ΔTWS as input parameters to model GWL, the performance of SVR improves and it performs better than ANN. These results imply that for modelling irregular time series GWL data, ΔTWS could be very useful.

Spatio-temporal variations of nitric acid total columns from 9 years of IASI measurements - a driver study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronsmans, Gaétane; Wespes, Catherine; Hurtmans, Daniel; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-04-01

This study aims to understand the spatial and temporal variability of HNO3 total columns in terms of explanatory variables. To achieve this, multiple linear regressions are used to fit satellite-derived time series of HNO3 daily averaged total columns. First, an analysis of the IASI 9-year time series (2008-2016) is conducted based on various equivalent latitude bands. The strong and systematic denitrification of the southern polar stratosphere is observed very clearly. It is also possible to distinguish, within the polar vortex, three regions which are differently affected by the denitrification. Three exceptional denitrification episodes in 2011, 2014 and 2016 are also observed in the Northern Hemisphere, due to unusually low arctic temperatures. The time series are then fitted by multivariate regressions to identify what variables are responsible for HNO3 variability in global distributions and time series, and to quantify their respective influence. Out of an ensemble of proxies (annual cycle, solar flux, quasi-biennial oscillation, multivariate ENSO index, Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and volume of polar stratospheric clouds), only the those defined as significant (p value < 0.05) by a selection algorithm are retained for each equivalent latitude band. Overall, the regression gives a good representation of HNO3 variability, with especially good results at high latitudes (60-80 % of the observed variability explained by the model). The regressions show the dominance of annual variability in all latitudinal bands, which is related to specific chemistry and dynamics depending on the latitudes. We find that the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) also have a major influence in the polar regions, and that their inclusion in the model improves the correlation coefficients and the residuals. However, there is still a relatively large portion of HNO3 variability that remains unexplained by the model, especially in the intertropical regions, where factors not included in the regression model (such as vegetation fires or lightning) may be at play.

On the Response of Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Stratospheric Oxone and Temperature to the 11-yr Solar Cycle Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2008-01-01

Results are presented on responses in 14-yr time series of stratospheric ozone and temperature from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) to a solar cycle (SC-like) variation. The ozone time series are for ten, 20-degree wide, latitude bins from 45S to 45N and for thirteen "half-Umkehr" layers of about 2.5 km thickness and extending from 63 hPa to 0.7 hPa. The temperature time series analyses were restricted to pressure levels in the range of 2 hPa to 0.7 hPa. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were applied to each of the 130 time series of zonally-averaged, sunrise plus sunset ozone points over that latitude/pressure domain. A simple, 11-yr periodic term and a linear trend term were added to the final MLR models after their seasonal and interannual terms had been determined. Where the amplitudes of the 11-yr terms were significant, they were in-phase with those of the more standard proxies for the solar uv-flux. The max minus min response for ozone is of order 2 to 3% from about 2 to 5 hPa and for the latitudes of 45S to 45N. There is also a significant max minus min response of order 1 K for temperature between 15S and 15N and from 2 to 0.7 hPa. The associated linear trends for ozone are near zero in the upper stratosphere. Negative ozone trends of 4 to 6%/decade were found at 10 to 20 hPa across the low to middle latitudes of both hemispheres. It is concluded that the analyzed responses from the HALOE data are of good quality and can be used to evaluate the responses of climate/chemistry models to a solar cycle forcing.

Cenozoic climate changes: A review based on time series analysis of marine benthic δ18O records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, Manfred; Bickert, Torsten; Lear, Caroline H.; Lohmann, Gerrit

2014-09-01

The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extracted from these records. Here we provide a comprehensive view of Cenozoic climate evolution by means of a coherent and systematic application of time series analytical tools to each record from a compilation spanning the interval from 4 to 61 Myr ago. We quantitatively describe several prominent features of the oxygen isotope record, taking into account the various sources of uncertainty (including measurement, proxy noise, and dating errors). The estimated transition times and amplitudes allow us to assess causal climatological-tectonic influences on the following known features of the Cenozoic oxygen isotopic record: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Eocene-Oligocene Transition, Oligocene-Miocene Boundary, and the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. We further describe and causally interpret the following features: Paleocene-Eocene warming trend, the two-step, long-term Eocene cooling, and the changes within the most recent interval (Miocene-Pliocene). We review the scope and methods of constructing Cenozoic stacks of benthic oxygen isotope records and present two new latitudinal stacks, which capture besides global ice volume also bottom water temperatures at low (less than 30°) and high latitudes. This review concludes with an identification of future directions for data collection, statistical method development, and climate modeling.

An Algorithm Framework for Isolating Anomalous Signals in Electromagnetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappler, K. N.; Schneider, D.; Bleier, T.; MacLean, L. S.

2016-12-01

QuakeFinder and its international collaborators have installed and currently maintain an array of 165 three-axis induction magnetometer instrument sites in California, Peru, Taiwan, Greece, Chile and Sumatra. Based on research by Bleier et al. (2009), Fraser-Smith et al. (1990), and Freund (2007), the electromagnetic data from these instruments are being analyzed for pre-earthquake signatures. This analysis consists of both private research by QuakeFinder, and institutional collaborators (PUCP in Peru, NCU in Taiwan, NOA in Greece, LASP at University of Colorado, Stanford, UCLA, NASA-ESI, NASA-AMES and USC-CSEP). QuakeFinder has developed an algorithm framework aimed at isolating anomalous signals (pulses) in the time series. Results are presented from an application of this framework to induction-coil magnetometer data. Our data driven approach starts with sliding windows applied to uniformly resampled array data with a variety of lengths and overlap. Data variance (a proxy for energy) is calculated on each window and a short-term average/ long-term average (STA/LTA) filter is applied to the variance time series. Pulse identification is done by flagging time intervals in the STA/LTA filtered time series which exceed a threshold. Flagged time intervals are subsequently fed into a feature extraction program which computes statistical properties of the resampled data. These features are then filtered using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based method to cluster similar pulses. We explore the extent to which this approach categorizes pulses with known sources (e.g. cars, lightning, etc.) and the remaining pulses of unknown origin can be analyzed with respect to their relationship with seismicity. We seek a correlation between these daily pulse-counts (with known sources removed) and subsequent (days to weeks) seismic events greater than M5 within 15km radius. Thus we explore functions which map daily pulse-counts to a time series representing the likelihood of a seismic event occurring at some future time. These "pseudo-probabilities" can in turn be represented as Molchan diagrams. The Molchan curve provides an effective cost function for optimization and allows for a rigorous statistical assessment of the validity of pre-earthquake signals in the electromagnetic data.

Dynamic linear models to explore time-varying suspended sediment-discharge rating curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Yellen, Brian; Steinschneider, Scott

2017-06-01

This study presents a new method to examine long-term dynamics in sediment yield using time-varying sediment-discharge rating curves. Dynamic linear models (DLMs) are introduced as a time series filter that can assess how the relationship between streamflow and sediment concentration or load changes over time in response to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances or long-term changes. The filter operates by updating parameter values using a recursive Bayesian design that responds to 1 day-ahead forecast errors while also accounting for observational noise. The estimated time series of rating curve parameters can then be used to diagnose multiscale (daily-decadal) variability in sediment yield after accounting for fluctuations in streamflow. The technique is applied in a case study examining changes in turbidity load, a proxy for sediment load, in the Esopus Creek watershed, part of the New York City drinking water supply system. The results show that turbidity load exhibits a complex array of variability across time scales. The DLM highlights flood event-driven positive hysteresis, where turbidity load remained elevated for months after large flood events, as a major component of dynamic behavior in the rating curve relationship. The DLM also produces more accurate 1 day-ahead loading forecasts compared to other static and time-varying rating curve methods. The results suggest that DLMs provide a useful tool for diagnosing changes in sediment-discharge relationships over time and may help identify variability in sediment concentrations and loads that can be used to inform dynamic water quality management.

Industry funding of the FDA: effects of PDUFA on approval times and withdrawal rates.

PubMed

Berndt, Ernst R; Gottschalk, Adrian H B; Philipson, Tomas J; Strobeck, Matthew W

2005-07-01

The development of new therapies is a crucial component of efforts to improve healthcare. Because drug development and FDA regulatory review have historically been lengthy and costly processes, the US Congress passed a series of legislative acts, beginning in 1992, known collectively as the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts (PDUFA), which sought to expedite the FDA drug-review process. Here, we review data on drug approvals and drug-approval times, both as a whole and by therapeutic class, which demonstrate that implementation of the PDUFAs led to substantial incremental reductions in approval times beyond what would have been observed in the absence of these legislative acts. In addition, our preliminary examination of the trends in the number of new molecular entity withdrawals, frequently used as a proxy to assess the FDA's safety record, suggests that the proportion of approvals ultimately leading to safety withdrawals prior to PDUFA and during PDUFA I and II were not statistically different.

High-resolution paleoenvironmental context for human occupations during the Middle Pleistocene in Europe (MIS 11, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivals, Florent; Ziegler, Reinhard

2018-05-01

High-resolution paleoecological proxies, such as stable isotopes or tooth microwear in large mammals, are often used for their potential to deliver information about the paleodietary traits of individuals and populations at the time of death. Such proxies are of interest in high resolution sites because they provide accurate data regarding the diet of large herbivores as well as the habitats that were available at the time of formation of the site, and by inference can detect seasonality in the formation of the assemblages. The integration of two techniques, tooth mesowear and microwear, applied to Middle Pleistocene assemblages of large herbivores from Steinheim and Heppenloch did not indicate seasonality at any of the two sites, most likely due to low resolution and time averaging of the dietary signal. However, the combination of the two proxies was highly informative for reconstructing the paleodiets of the large herbivores. The two paleodietary proxies provided consistent results that permitted us to propose a reconstruction of the paleodiets and habitats available at each site.

Preference-based measures to obtain health state utility values for use in economic evaluations with child-based populations: a review and UK-based focus group assessment of patient and parent choices.

PubMed

Wolstenholme, Jane L; Bargo, Danielle; Wang, Kay; Harnden, Anthony; Räisänen, Ulla; Abel, Lucy

2018-03-21

No current guidance is available in the UK on the choice of preference-based measure (PBM) that should be used in obtaining health-related quality of life from children. The aim of this study is to review the current usage of PBMs for obtaining health state utility values in child and adolescent populations, and to obtain information on patient and parent-proxy respondent preferences in completing PBMs in the UK. A literature review was conducted to determine which instrument is most frequently used for child-based economic evaluations and whether child or proxy responses are used. Instruments were compared on dimensions, severity levels, elicitation and valuation methods, availability of value sets and validation studies, and the range of utility values generated. Additionally, a series of focus groups of parents and young people (11-20 years) were convened to determine patient and proxy preferences. Five PBMs suitable for child populations were identified, although only the Health Utilities Index 2 (HUI2) and Child Heath Utility 9D (CHU-9D) have UK value sets. 45 papers used PBMs in this population, but many used non-child-specific PBMs. Most respondents were parent proxies, even in adolescent populations. Reported missing data ranged from 0.5 to 49.3%. The focus groups reported their experiences with the EQ-5D-Y and CHU-9D. Both the young persons' group and parent/proxy groups felt that the CHU-9D was more comprehensive but may be harder for a proxy to complete. Some younger children had difficulty understanding the CHU-9D questions, but the young persons' group nonetheless preferred responding directly. The use of PBMs in child populations is increasing, but many studies use PBMs that do not have appropriate value sets. Parent proxies are the most common respondents, but the focus group responses suggest it would be preferred, and may be more informative, for older children to self-report or for child-parent dyads to respond.

Nine Hundred Years of Weekly Streamflows: Stochastic Downscaling of Ensemble Tree-Ring Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauchyn, David; Ilich, Nesa

2017-11-01

We combined the methods and advantages of stochastic hydrology and paleohydrology to estimate 900 years of weekly flows for the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers at Edmonton and Medicine Hat, Alberta, respectively. Regression models of water-year streamflow were constructed using historical naturalized flow data and a pool of 196 tree-ring (earlywood, latewood, and annual) ring-width chronologies from 76 sites. The tree-ring models accounted for up to 80% of the interannual variability in historical naturalized flows. We developed a new algorithm for generating stochastic time series of weekly flows constrained by the statistical properties of both the historical record and proxy streamflow data, and by the necessary condition that weekly flows correlate between the end of a year and the start of the next. A second innovation, enabled by the density of our tree-ring network, is to derive the paleohydrology from an ensemble of 100 statistically significant reconstructions at each gauge. Using paleoclimatic data to generate long series of weekly flow estimates augments the short historical record with an expanded range of hydrologic variability, including sequences of wet and dry years of greater length and severity. This unique hydrometric time series will enable evaluation of the reliability of current water supply and management systems given the range of hydroclimatic variability and extremes contained in the stochastic paleohydrology. It also could inform evaluation of the uncertainty in climate model projections, given that internal hydroclimatic variability is the dominant source of uncertainty.

Noble Gas Temperature Proxy for Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

Noble gases in groundwater appear to offer a practical approach for quantitatively determining past surface air temperatures over recharge areas for any watershed. The noble gas temperature (NGT) proxy should then permit a paleothermometry of a region over time. This terrestria...

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.

2015-01-01

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

A High-Resolution Lipid Biomarker Perspective on North Iceland Shelf Marine Climate over the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, D.; Sepúlveda, J.; Andrews, J. T.; Cabedo-Sanz, P.; Belt, S. T.; Marchitto, T. M.; Stoner, J. S.; Geirsdóttir, Á.; Miller, G. H.

2017-12-01

Icelandic climate is vulnerable to variations in the dominance of competing Arctic and Atlantic ocean currents. The boundary between these water masses delineates the Polar Front, which today occupies the North Iceland Shelf (NIS). To date, Holocene oceanographic reconstructions along the NIS have employed a variety of proxies including Mg/Ca and δ18O of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, quartz and calcite wt%, the alkenone unsaturation index (Uk'37) and biotic species assemblages. Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies are primarily derived from phytoplankton resulting in a seasonal bias toward spring/summer SST. Furthermore, SST proxies can be influenced by additional confounding variables (e.g. salinity, nutrients, depth habitat of biota) resulting in markedly different Holocene temperature reconstructions between proxy datasets. To evaluate the similarities and discrepancies between various marine proxies, we investigate a high-resolution sediment core collected from the central North Iceland Shelf (B997-316GGC, 658 m depth). Sedimentation covers the last millennium, which captures the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Age control is constrained by 14C dates and paleomagnetic secular variation. To assess marine surface productivity and sea ice conditions, we analyze quartz and calcite wt% via XRD and a series of highly branched isoprenoid biomarkers. Quantitative paleotemperature estimates are derived from a novel combination of Mg/Ca of foraminifera and two lipid biomarker indices, Uk'37 from Prymnesiophyte alkenones and TEX86 from Thaumarchaeota glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs). The latter TEX86 record is the first paleo application in Icelandic waters, which a recent local calibration study suggests may reflect annual or winter sub-surface (0-200 m) temperatures. Our paleotemperature records are bolstered by the analysis of additional sediment core tops, which expand the established Icelandic calibrations. Finally, we perform statistical analyses in an effort to extract a robust record of paleoceanographic change and to test the applicability of various proxies in high-latitude paleoclimate studies.

Is there a link between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking? A time-series analysis for Sweden in 1972-2012.

PubMed

Norström, Thor; Raninen, Jonas

2015-06-01

To estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking in Sweden during the last 40 years and to estimate the relationship between female and male youth drinking during the 40-year study period. Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by official sales data, supplemented by data on unrecorded consumption. Youth consumption was measured by a question on heavy episodic drinking (HED) included in an annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th -grade students (15-16 years of age). The annual samples comprise approximately 5000 individuals (with roughly equal numbers of boys and girls) with response rates in the range 80-93%. The study spans the period 1972-2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis was used to estimate the relation between per-capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking. Ocular inspection of the time-series data suggested a stronger synchronization between the two series in the early period, before the mid-1990s, than in the later period, indicating a structural shift in the relation at issue. We therefore conducted period specific time-series analyses with 1995 as the year of division. There was a statistically significant relation between per capita alcohol consumption and HED among youth for 1972-94. A 1% increase in per capita alcohol consumption was associated with an increase in HED of 1.52% (P = 0.008). The estimate for 1995-2012 (0.12) was well below statistical significance (P = 0.580). The estimated elasticity of the association between boys' and girls' HED during 1972-94 was close to unity (0.98, P < 0.001), suggesting proportional changes in boys' and girls' drinking. When controlling for per capita consumption, the association was halved (to 0.55) but still significant in table 3 (P = 0.045). Adult and youth drinking in Sweden were synchronized closely during the two last decades of the 20th century, but youth drinking developed an independent trajectory shortly before 2000. © 2015 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

Mapping of West Nile Virus Risk in the Northeast United States Using Multi-temporal Meteorological Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Backenson, P.; White, D. J.; Eidson, M.; Smith, P. F.; Kramer, L. D.; Morse, D. L.; Tucker, C. J.; Myers, M. F.; Hay, S. I.; Rogers, D. J.

2002-05-01

West Nile Virus (WNV) was first discovered in the United States in September of 1999, after a cluster of cases of human neurological illness was identified in the borough of Queens in New York City. Eventually, that outbreak led to 62 human cases of WNV, including seven deaths. Multiple researchers identified and isolated the virus in several bird and mosquito species in New York. In 2000, an elaborate surveillance system was developed to detect the presence of WNV before human cases occur. This system was largely successful, as the number of WNV detections in birds and mosquitoes increased tremendously, while the number of human cases dropped to 14. In 2001, this surveillance system, and those like it in other states, detected the spread of WNV to over 25 states, with over 50 human cases. Detecting WNV in both birds and mosquitoes, however, is a time and labor intensive task, requiring dedicated staff and resources. In New York it has required hundreds of staff, and millions of dollars. It often takes at least 10 days from the time of specimen collection to the time when results are available. To improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness, proxies are sought to estimate the risk of WNV infection in a given area, preferably on a real-time basis. The project discussed here utilizes remotely sensed meteorological data to accomplish that goal. Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA series of meteorological satellites provided the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land surface temperature proxies, as well as elevation, and were temporal Fourier processed. Bird and mosquito data (both infected and uninfected) were added to these images to suggest conditions favoring disease transmission. AVHRR data were also used to analyze changes over time that might be associated with the arrival of WNV in the United States, and with its potential spread over time. Maximum likelihood methods applied to these satellite data allowed production of a series of risk maps that measured the similarity of satellite conditions in a given area to the bird and mosquito data collected on the ground. Both bird and mosquito risk maps showed high kappa indices of agreement. As surveillance teams collect more field data on the ground, these risk maps should become more accurate. These risk maps can then be used by state and local authorities to better direct public health staff and resources, and hopefully prevent large-scale outbreaks of West Nile Virus in the future.

Claims-based proxies of patient instability among commercially insured adults with schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Ruetsch, Charles; Un, Hyong; Waters, Heidi C

2018-01-01

Objective Schizophrenia (Sz) patients are among the highest utilizers of hospital-based services. Prevention of relapse is in part a treatment goal in order to reduce hospital admissions. However, predicting relapse is a challenge, particularly for payers and disease management firms with only access to claims data. Understandably, such organizations have had little success predicting relapse. A tool that allows payers to identify patients at elevated risk of relapse could facilitate targeted interventions prior to relapse and avoid rehospitalization. In this study, a series of proxy measures of patient instability, calculated from claims data were examined for their utility in identifying Sz patients at elevated risk of relapse. Methods Aetna claims were used to assess the relationship between instability of Sz patients and valence and magnitude of antipsychotic (AP) medication change during a 2-year period. Six proxies of instability including hospital admissions, emergency department visits, medication utilization patterns, and use of outpatient services were identified. Results were replicated using claims data from Truven MarketScan®. Results Patients who switched AP ingredient had the highest overall instability at the point of switch and the second steepest decline in instability following switch. Those who changed to a long-acting injectable AP showed the second highest level of instability and the steepest decrease in instability following the change. Patients augmented with a second AP showed the smallest increase in instability, up to the switch. Results were directionally consistent between the two data sets. Conclusion Using claims-based proxy measures to estimate instability may provide a viable method to better understand Sz patient markers of change in disease severity. Also, such proxies could be used to identify those individuals with the greatest need for treatment modification preventing relapse, improving patient outcomes, and reducing the burden of illness. PMID:29765242

Fossil bryophytes as recorders of ancient CO2 levels: Experimental evidence and a Cretaceous case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fletcher, Benjamin J.; Beerling, David J.; Brentnall, Stuart J.; Royer, Dana L.

2005-09-01

Biological and geochemical CO2 proxies provide critical constraints on understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 in driving climate change during Earth history. As no single existing CO2 proxy is without its limitations, there is a clear need for new approaches to reconstructing past CO2 concentrations. Here we develop a new pre-Quaternary CO2 proxy based on the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of astomatous land plants. In a series of CO2-controlled laboratory experiments, we show that the carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) of a range of bryophyte (liverwort and moss) species increases with atmospheric CO2 across the range 375 to 6000 ppm. Separate experiments establish that variations in growth temperature, water content and substrate type have minor impacts on the Δ13C of liverworts but not mosses, indicating the greater potential of liverworts to faithfully record past variations in CO2. A mechanistic model for calculating past CO2 concentrations from bryophyte Δ13C (White et al., 1994) is extended and calibrated using our experimental results. The potential for fossil liverworts to record past CO2 changes is investigated by analyzing the δ13C of specimens collected from Alexander Island, Antarctica dating to the "greenhouse" world of the mid-Cretaceous. Our analysis and isotopic model yield mid-Cretaceous CO2 concentrations of 1000-1400 ppm, in general agreement with independent proxy data and long-term carbon cycle models. The exceptionally long evolutionary history of bryophytes offers the possibility of reconstructing CO2 concentrations back to the mid-Ordovician, pre-dating all currently used quantitative CO2 proxies.

Family structure, experiences with end-of-life decision making, and who asked about advance directives impacts advance directive completion rates.

PubMed

Van Scoy, Lauren J; Howrylak, Judie; Nguyen, Anhthu; Chen, Melodie; Sherman, Michael

2014-10-01

Advance directives are an important but underutilized resource. Reasons for this underutilization need to be determined. We investigated factors associated with completion of advance directives among inpatients. We conducted prospective, structured interviews on family structure, health care, disease, and end-of-life experiences. We compared those with completed advance directives and those without. We interviewed 130 inpatients in an urban university hospital. We used bivariate analysis and logistic regression to identify characteristics of patients with living wills and health care proxies versus patients without them. Twenty-one percent of patients had a living will and 35% had a health care proxy. Patients with completed living wills were older (p≤0.0046), had more comorbidities (p=0.018), were widowed (p=0.02), and were more often admitted with chronic disease (p=0.009) compared to those without living wills. Patients with health care proxies were older (p<0.001), had religious affiliations (p=0.04), more children (p=0.03), and more often widowed (p≤0.001) than those without health care proxies. Patients were 10.8 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.59-25.3), 46.5 times (95% CI 15.1-139.4), and 68.6 times (95% CI 13.0-361.3) more likely to complete a living will when asked by medical staff, legal staff, or family and friends, respectively, than those not asked. Patients with health care proxies were 1.68 times (95% CI 0.81-3.47), 4.34 times (95% CI 1.50-12.6), and 18.0 times (95% CI 2.03-158.8) more likely to have been asked by the same groups. Patients with experience in end-of-life decision-making were 2.54 times more likely to possess a living will (95%CI 1.01-6.42) and 3.53 times more likely to possess a health care proxy (95% CI 1.51-8.25) than those without experiences. Having been asked about advance directives by medical staff, legal staff, or family and friends increases the likelihood that patients will possess an advance directive. Those with prior experience with end-of-life decision-making are more likely to possess an advance directive. Family structure and health care utilization also impacts possession of advance directives.

Behavioral Problems and Childhood Epilepsy: Parent vs Child Perspectives.

PubMed

Eom, Soyong; Caplan, Rochelle; Berg, Anne T

2016-12-01

To test whether the reported association between pediatric epilepsy and behavioral problems may be distorted by the use of parental proxy report instruments. Children in the Connecticut Study of Epilepsy were assessed 8-9 years after their epilepsy diagnosis (time-1) with the parent-proxy Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) (ages 6-18 years) or the Young Adult Self-Report (≥18 years of age). For children <18 years of age, parents also completed the Child Health Questionnaire, which contains scales for impact of child's illness on the parents. The same study subjects completed the Adult Self-Report 6-8 years later (time-2). Sibling controls were also tested. Case-control differences were examined for evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in cases with epilepsy than in controls based on proxy- vs self-report measures. At time-1, parent-proxy CBCL scores were significantly higher (worse) for cases than controls (n = 140 matched pairs). After adjustment for Child Health Questionnaire scales reflecting parent emotional and time impact, only 1 case-control difference on the CBCL remained significant. Self-reported Young Adult Self-Report scores did not differ between cases and controls (n = 42 pairs). At time-2, there were no significant self-reported case-control differences on the Adult Self-Report (n = 105 pairs). Parent-proxy behavior measures appear to be influenced by the emotional impact of epilepsy on parents. This may contribute to apparent associations between behavioral problems and childhood epilepsy. Self-report measures in older adolescents (>18 years of age) and young adults do not confirm parental perceptions. Evidence suggesting more behavioral problems in children with epilepsy should be interpreted in light of the source of information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological structure and function differs between habitats dominated by seagrasses and green seaweeds.

PubMed

Tuya, Fernando; Png-Gonzalez, Lydia; Riera, Rodrigo; Haroun, Ricardo; Espino, Fernando

2014-07-01

Marine vegetated habitats, e.g. seagrass meadows, deliver essential functions and services to coastal ecosystems and human welfare. Impacts induced by humans, however, have facilitated the replacement of seagrasses by alternative vegetation, e.g. green rhizophytic seaweeds. The implications of habitat shifts for ecosystem attributes and processes and the services they deliver remain poorly known. In this study, we compared ecosystem structure and function between Cymodocea nodosa seagrass meadows and bottoms dominated by Caulerpa prolifera, a green, native, rhizophytic seaweed, through 5 ecological proxies: (i) primary production (via community metabolism), (ii) composition and abundance of epifauna (a proxy for provision of habitat for epifauna), composition and abundance of (iii) small-sized (juvenile) and (iv) large-sized (adult) fishes (proxies for provision of habitat for fishes), and (v) sediment retention (a proxy for sediment stabilization). Four of these proxies were greater in C. nodosa seagrass meadows than in C. prolifera beds: gross primary productivity (∼1.4 times), the total abundance, species density and biomass of small-sized fishes (∼2.1, 1.3 and 1.3 times, respectively), the total abundance and species density of large-sized fishes (∼3.6 and 1.5 times, respectively), and sediment stabilization (∼1.4 times). In contrast, the total abundance and species density of epifauna was larger (∼3.1 and 1.7 times, respectively) in C. prolifera than in C. nodosa seagrass beds. These results suggest that ecosystem structure and function may differ if seagrasses are replaced by green rhizophytic seaweeds. Importantly, ecosystem functions may not be appropriate surrogates for one another. As a result, assessments of ecosystem services associated with ecosystem functions cannot be based on exclusively one service that is expected to benefit other services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sources of core and intact branched tetraether membrane lipids in the lacustrine environment: Anatomy of Lake Challa and its catchment, equatorial East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckles, Laura K.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Verschuren, Dirk; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

2014-09-01

The MBT/CBT palaeotemperature proxy uses the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), membrane lipids that are supposed to derive from soil bacteria, to reconstruct mean annual air temperature (MAAT). Applied successfully in coastal marine sediments, its extension to lake-sediment records with potentially high time resolution would greatly expand its utility. Over the last years, however, studies have indicated the presence of additional sources of brGDGTs within lake systems. To constrain the factors influencing the MBT/CBT palaeotemperature proxy in lakes, detailed investigation of brGDGT fluxes in a modern lake system is necessary to identify their potential sources. This study concentrates on Lake Challa, a permanently stratified crater lake in equatorial East Africa with limited catchment area. An almost 3-year time series of approximately monthly samples of settling particles, supplemented with a depth profile of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and sets of profundal surface-sediment and catchment soil samples, were analysed for both the 'living' intact polar lipids (IPLs) and 'fossil' core lipids (CLs) of GDGTs. We found that brGDGTs are produced in oxic, suboxic and anoxic zones of the water column, and in substantial amounts compared to influxes from catchment soils. Additional in situ production within the lake sediments is most probable, but cannot be definitely confirmed at this time. These lacustrine brGDGTs display a different response to temperature variation than soil-derived brGDGTs, signifying either a different physiological adaptation to changing conditions within the water column and/or a different composition of the respective bacterial communities. Using this specific relationship with temperature, a local calibration based on brGDGT distributions in SPM generates relatively accurate water temperature estimates from settling particles but fails for surface sediments.

Nyctemeral variations of magnesium intake in the calcitic layer of a Chilean mollusk shell ( Concholepas concholepas, Gastropoda)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazareth, Claire E.; Guzman, Nury; Poitrasson, Franck; Candaudap, Frederic; Ortlieb, Luc

2007-11-01

Mollusk shells are increasingly used as records of past environmental conditions, particularly for sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. Many recent studies tackled SST (and/or sea-surface salinity) tracers through variations in the elementary (Mg and Sr) or stable isotope (δ 18O) composition within mollusk shells. But such attempts, which sometimes include calibration studies on modern specimens, are not always conclusive. We present here a series of Mg and Sr analyses in the calcitic layer of Concholepas concholepas (Muricidae, Gastropoda) with a very high time-resolution on a time window covering about 1 and a half month of shell formation, performed by Laser Ablation Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and electron probe micro-analysis (EPMA). The selected specimen of this common Chilean gastropod was grown under controlled environmental conditions and precise weekly time-marks were imprinted in the shell with calcein staining. Strontium variations in the shell are too limited to be interpreted in terms of environmental parameter changes. In contrast, Mg incorporation into the shell and growth rate appear to change systematically between night and day. During the day, Mg is incorporated at a higher rate than at night and this intake seems positively correlated with water temperature. The nightly reduced Mg incorporation is seemingly related to metabolically controlled processes, formation of organic-rich shell increments and nocturnal feeding activity of the animals. The nyctemeral Mg changes in the C. concholepas shell revealed in this study might explain at least part of the discrepancies observed in previous studies on the use of Mg as a SST proxy in mollusk shells. In the case of C. concholepas, Mg cannot be used straightforwardly as a SST proxy.

Identifying the driving forces of urban expansion and its environmental impact in Jakarta-Bandung mega urban region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pravitasari, A. E.; Rustiadi, E.; Mulya, S. P.; Setiawan, Y.; Fuadina, L. N.; Murtadho, A.

2018-05-01

The socio-economic development in Jakarta-Bandung Mega Urban Region (JBMUR) caused the increasing of urban expansion and led to a variety of environmental damage such as uncontrolled land use conversion and raising anthropogenic disaster. The objectives of this study are: (1) to identify the driving forces of urban expansion that occurs on JBMUR and (2) to analyze the environmental quality decline on JBMUR by producing time series spatial distribution map and spatial autocorrelation of floods and landslide as the proxy of anthropogenic disaster. The driving forces of urban expansion in this study were identified by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model using 6 (six) independent variables, namely: population density, percentage of agricultural land, distance to the center of capital city/municipality, percentage of household who works in agricultural sector, distance to the provincial road, and distance to the local road. The GWR results showed that local demographic, social and economic factors including distance to the road spatially affect urban expansion in JBMUR. The time series spatial distribution map of floods and landslide event showed the spatial cluster of anthropogenic disaster in some areas. Through Local Moran Index, we found that environmental damage in one location has a significant impact on the condition of its surrounding area.

Data Driven Smart Proxy for CFD Application of Big Data Analytics & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics, Report Two: Model Building at the Cell Level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ansari, A.; Mohaghegh, S.; Shahnam, M.

To ensure the usefulness of simulation technologies in practice, their credibility needs to be established with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods. In this project, smart proxy is introduced to significantly reduce the computational cost of conducting large number of multiphase CFD simulations, which is typically required for non-intrusive UQ analysis. Smart proxy for CFD models are developed using pattern recognition capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Mining (DM) technologies. Several CFD simulation runs with different inlet air velocities for a rectangular fluidized bed are used to create a smart CFD proxy that is capable of replicating the CFD results formore » the entire geometry and inlet velocity range. The smart CFD proxy is validated with blind CFD runs (CFD runs that have not played any role during the development of the smart CFD proxy). The developed and validated smart CFD proxy generates its results in seconds with reasonable error (less than 10%). Upon completion of this project, UQ studies that rely on hundreds or thousands of smart CFD proxy runs can be accomplished in minutes. Following figure demonstrates a validation example (blind CFD run) showing the results from the MFiX simulation and the smart CFD proxy for pressure distribution across a fluidized bed at a given time-step (the layer number corresponds to the vertical location in the bed).« less

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2010)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2010-01-01

The 2010 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2007. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2007 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2010). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2013)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2013-01-01

The 2013 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2010. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2010 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2013). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2015-01-01

The 2015 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2011. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2011 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2015). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2011)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2011-01-01

The 2011 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2008. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2008 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2011). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2012)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2012-01-01

The 2012 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2009. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2009 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2012). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (1751-2006) (NDP-058.2009)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2009-01-01

The 2009 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2006. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2006 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2009). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2016)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2016-01-01

The 2016 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2013. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2013 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2016). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

PubMed

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vegetation productivity responses to drought on tribal lands in the four corners region of the Southwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Vilaly, Mohamed Abd Salam; Didan, Kamel; Marsh, Stuart E.; van Leeuwen, Willem J. D.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Munoz, Armando Barreto

2018-03-01

For more than a decade, the Four Corners Region has faced extensive and persistent drought conditions that have impacted vegetation communities and local water resources while exacerbating soil erosion. These persistent droughts threaten ecosystem services, agriculture, and livestock activities, and expose the hypersensitivity of this region to inter-annual climate variability and change. Much of the intermountainWestern United States has sparse climate and vegetation monitoring stations, making fine-scale drought assessments difficult. Remote sensing data offers the opportunity to assess the impacts of the recent droughts on vegetation productivity across these areas. Here, we propose a drought assessment approach that integrates climate and topographical data with remote sensing vegetation index time series. Multisensor Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data from 1989 to 2010 at 5.6 km were analyzed to characterize the vegetation productivity changes and responses to the ongoing drought. A multi-linear regression was applied to metrics of vegetation productivity derived from the NDVI time series to detect vegetation productivity, an ecosystem service proxy, and changes. The results show that around 60.13% of the study area is observing a general decline of greenness ( p<0.05), while 3.87% show an unexpected green up, with the remaining areas showing no consistent change. Vegetation in the area show a significant positive correlation with elevation and precipitation gradients. These results, while, confirming the region's vegetation decline due to drought, shed further light on the future directions and challenges to the region's already stressed ecosystems. Whereas the results provide additional insights into this isolated and vulnerable region, the drought assessment approach used in this study may be adapted for application in other regions where surface-based climate and vegetation monitoring record is spatially and temporally limited.

Long-times series of infrasonic records at open-vents volcanoes (Yasur volcano, Vanuatu, 2003-2014): the remarkable temporal stability of magma viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergniolle, S.; Souty, V.; Zielinski, C.; Bani, P.; LE Pichon, A.; Lardy, M.; Millier, P.; Herry, P.; Todman, S.; Garaebiti, E.

2017-12-01

Open-vents volcanoes, often presenting series of Strombolian explosions of various intensity, are responding, although with a delay, to any changes in the degassing pattern, providing a quasi-direct route to processes at depth. Open-vents volcanoes display a persistent volcanic activity, although of variable intensity. Long-times series at open-vents volcanoes could therefore be key measurements to unravel physical processes at the origin of Strombolian explosions and be crucial for monitoring. Continuous infrasonic records can be used to estimate the gas volume expelled at the vent during explosions (bursting of a long slug). The gas volume of each explosion is deduced from a series of two successive integrations of acoustic pressure (monopole). Here we analysed more than 4 years of infrasonic records at Yasur volcano (Vanuatu), spanning between 2003 and 2014 and organised into 8 main quasi-continuous periods. The relationship between the gas volume of each explosion and its associated maximum positive acoustic pressure, a proxy for the inner gas overpressure at bursting, shows a remarkably stable trend over the 8 periods. Two main trends exists, one which covers the full range of acoustic pressures (called « strong explosions ») and the second which represents explosions with a large gas volume and mild acoustic pressure. The class of « strong explosions » clearly follows the model of Del Bello et al. (2012), which shows that the inner gas overpressure at bursting, here empirically measured by the maximum acoustic pressure, is proportional to the gas volume. Constrains on magma viscosity and conduit radius, are deduced from this trend and from the gas volume at the transition passive-active degassing. The remarkable stability of this trend over time suggests that 1) the magma viscosity is stable at the depth where gas overpressure is produced within the slug and 2) any potential changes in magma viscosity occur very close to the top of the magma column.

A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Burns, S. J.; Taylor, B. L.; Cruz, F. W.; Bird, B. W.; Abbott, M. B.; Kanner, L. C.; Cheng, H.; Novello, V. F.

2012-08-01

We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

A Third-Party E-payment Protocol Based on Quantum Multi-proxy Blind Signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xu-Feng; Zhang, Jian-Zhong; Xie, Shu-Cui; Chen, Bu-Qing

2018-05-01

A third-party E-payment protocol is presented in this paper. It is based on quantum multi-proxy blind signature. Adopting the techniques of quantum key distribution, one-time pad and quantum multi-proxy blind signature, our third-party E-payment system could protect user's anonymity as the traditional E-payment systems do, and also have unconditional security which the classical E-payment systems can not provide. Furthermore, compared with the existing quantum E-payment systems, the proposed system could support the E-payment which using the third-party platforms.

Little Ice Age versus Present Day: Comparison of Temperature, Precipitation and Seasonality in Speleothem Records from the Han-sur-Lesse Cave, Belgium.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenberge, S.; Van Opdenbosch, J.; Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Keppens, E.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Claeys, P. F.

2015-12-01

The Proserpine stalagmite is a 2 m large, tabular-shaped speleothem located in the Han-sur-Lesse cave in Belgium. The speleothem formed over the last 1000 years and is still growing. High-accuracy U/Th datings have indicated exceptionally high growth-rates of up to 2 mm per year. This, together with a well expressed annual layering, makes the Proserpine stalagmite an ideal candidate for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions of the last millennium. Previous work, including over 10 years of cave monitoring, has already learned us how short-term, i.e. decadal to seasonal, climate variations are incorporated within speleothem calcite from the Han-sur-Lesse cave system. It has been shown that δ18O and δ13C stable isotopes and trace element proxies of recently formed calcite reflect seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation of the near-cave environment (Verheyden et al, 2008; Van Rampelbergh et al., 2014). Now, this knowledge was used to infer local climate parameters further back in time to the period of +/- 1620-1630 CE, corresponding to one of the cold peaks within the Little Ice Age. Speleothem calcite was sampled at sub-annual resolution, with approximately 11 samples per year, for stable isotope analysis. LA-ICP-MS and µXRF analyses resulted in time series of trace elements. Preliminary results indicate a well expressed seasonal signal in δ13C and trace element composition but a multi-annual to decadal trend in δ18O. This combined proxy study eventually enables comparison of the expression of seasonality and longer term climate variations between a Little Ice Age cold peak and Present Day. References: Verheyden, S. et al., 2008, Monitoring climatological, hydrological and geochemical parameters in the Père Noël cave (Belgium): implication for the interpretation of speleothem isotopic and geochemical time-series. International Journal of Speleology, 37(3), 221-234. Van Rampelbergh, M. et al., 2014, Seasonal variations recorded in cave monitoring results and a 10-year monthly resolved speleothem δ13C and δ18O record from the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium. Climate of the Past, 10, 1-15, 2014.

Case study of a healthy eating intervention for Swedish lorry drivers.

PubMed

Gill, Peter E; Wijk, Katarina

2004-06-01

Professional drivers, i.e. lorry, truck, bus and taxi drivers, have been identified as a particular health risk group. An intervention to study the efficacy of a series of educational programmes, involving improved nutritional balance in meals served, food preparation routines and carrying out personal health profiles on staff, was implemented at a Swedish truck stop in order to target this specific hard-to-reach risk group. Professional drivers were targeted through an information campaign, healthier 'Today's Special' choices and by using staff as proxy health promoters. A campaign emblem on the menu notice board indicated healthier food choice menu items. Drivers choosing healthier alternatives were given lottery tokens. The intervention was evaluated through nutritional analyses, field observations, questionnaires and interviews. Positive staff-level outcomes included increased nutritional awareness, personal health empowerment and, most crucially, overwhelming staff support for a health-promoting role. Nutritional analysis of pre- and post-intervention 'Today's Specials' showed a better balance of fat, calories, carbohydrates and protein (per 100 g) content in the dishes tested. At management level there were economic benefits in terms of time savings and reduced use of cooking fat in food preparation. Drivers tended to choose healthier alternatives and there was increased awareness of the healthier alternatives on offer. The case study showed that using truck stop staff as proxy health promoters offers a viable intervention strategy.

Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities.

PubMed

Demirkesen, Ali Can; Evrendilek, Fatih

2017-01-01

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km 2 ) and 11.8% (6374 km 2 ) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

Pre- and post-bomb radiocarbon in fish otoliths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalish, John M.

1993-02-01

Measurements of radiocarbon in seawater dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), or suitable proxies such as hermatypic corals, are a valuable source of information on carbon flux and ocean circulation. However, knowledge of the global distribution of both pre- and post-bomb radiocarbon is limited due to the sources of these data. Suitable hermatypic corals are restricted to shallow tropical and subtropical waters and oceanographic collections of seawater are prohibitively expensive. What is needed is a proxy for ocean radiocarbon that can be collected at most latitudes and depths, and which can be reliably aged. Here I report accelerator mass spectrometry analyses of radiocarbon from selected regions of fish otoliths and show that such measurements are suitable for determining both pre- and post-bomb radiocarbon in all oceans and at most depths. Radiocarbon data obtained from otoliths can extend our knowledge of carbon flux in the oceans and atmosphere and help to develop further understanding of the fate of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean circulation. The data presented here represent the first pre- and post-bomb time series of radiocarbon levels from temperate waters. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the dramatic increase in radiocarbon in the atmosphere and oceans, attributable to the atmospheric testing of thermonuclear bombs during the 1950's and 1960's, provides a chemical mark on fish otoliths that is suitable for the validation of age in fishes.

Proxy system modeling of tree-ring isotope chronologies over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-12-01

The Asian monsoon can be characterized in terms of both precipitation variability and atmospheric circulation across a range of spatial and temporal scales. While multicentury time series of tree-ring widths at hundreds of sites across Asia provide estimates of past rainfall, the oxygen isotope ratios of annual rings may reveal broader regional hydroclimate and atmosphere-ocean dynamics. Tree-ring oxygen isotope chronologies from Monsoon Asia have been interpreted to reflect a local 'amount effect', relative humidity, source water and seasonality, and winter snowfall. Here, we use an isotope-enabled general circulation model simulation from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) Model E and a proxy system model of the oxygen isotope composition of tree-ring cellulose to interpret the large-scale and local climate controls on δ 18O chronologies. Broad-scale dominant signals are associated with a suite of covarying hydroclimate variables including growing season rainfall amounts, relative humidity, and vapor pressure deficit. Temperature and source water influences are region-dependent, as are the simulated tree-ring isotope signals associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and large-scale indices of the Asian monsoon circulation. At some locations, including southern coastal Viet Nam, local precipitation isotope ratios and the resulting simulated δ 18O tree-ring chronologies reflect upstream rainfall amounts and atmospheric circulation associated with monsoon strength and wind anomalies.

Solar radio proxies for improved satellite orbit prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaya, Philippe; Hecker, Louis; Dudok de Wit, Thierry; Fèvre, Clémence Le; Bruinsma, Sean

2017-12-01

Specification and forecasting of solar drivers to thermosphere density models is critical for satellite orbit prediction and debris avoidance. Satellite operators routinely forecast orbits up to 30 days into the future. This requires forecasts of the drivers to these orbit prediction models such as the solar Extreme-UV (EUV) flux and geomagnetic activity. Most density models use the 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7 index) as a proxy for solar EUV. However, daily measurements at other centimetric wavelengths have also been performed by the Nobeyama Radio Observatory (Japan) since the 1950's, thereby offering prospects for improving orbit modeling. Here we present a pre-operational service at the Collecte Localisation Satellites company that collects these different observations in one single homogeneous dataset and provides a 30 days forecast on a daily basis. Interpolation and preprocessing algorithms were developed to fill in missing data and remove anomalous values. We compared various empirical time series prediction techniques and selected a multi-wavelength non-recursive analogue neural network. The prediction of the 30 cm flux, and to a lesser extent that of the 10.7 cm flux, performs better than NOAA's present prediction of the 10.7 cm flux, especially during periods of high solar activity. In addition, we find that the DTM-2013 density model (Drag Temperature Model) performs better with (past and predicted) values of the 30 cm radio flux than with the 10.7 flux.

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan C.; Fabian, Karl; Milzer, Gesa; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO records are crucial to better understand its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and shifts associated with ongoing climate change. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we compare geochemical measurements with instrumental data and show that primary productivity recorded in central Norwegian fjord sediments is sensitive to NAO variability. This observation is used to calibrate paleoproductivity changes to a 500-year reconstruction of winter NAO (Luterbacher et al., 2001). Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish a first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAOTFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2800 years. The NAOTFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends. The here presented climate record shows that fjord sediments provide crucial information for an improved understanding of the linkages between atmospheric circulation, solar and oceanic forcing factors.

Millennial-scale climate variations recorded in Early Pliocene colour reflectance time series from the lacustrine Ptolemais Basin (NW Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Kloosterboer-van Hoeve, M. L.; Hilgen, F. J.

2003-03-01

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub-Milankovitch cycles are still poorly understood, not least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well exposed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct millennial-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that resulted from precession-induced variations in climate. The higher-frequency, millennial-scale cyclicity is particularly prominent within the grey-coloured marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of ˜115 ka, covering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two open-pit lignite mines located several km apart. High-resolution colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environmental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of within-cycle variability at periods of ˜11, ˜5.5 and ˜2 ka. The occurrence of variability at such time scales at times before the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and Moon.

Are Sea Surface Temperature satellite measurements reliable proxies of lagoon temperature in the South Pacific?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Menkes, Christophe; Le Gendre, Romain; Passfield, Teuru; Andréfouët, Serge

2017-12-01

In remote coral reef environments, lagoon and reef in situ measurements of temperature are scarce. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) measured by satellite has been frequently used as a proxy of the lagoon temperature experienced by coral reef organisms (TL) especially during coral bleaching events. However, the link between SST and TL is poorly characterized. First, we compared the correlation between various SST series and TL from 2012 to 2016 in three atolls and one island in the Central South Pacific Ocean. Simple linear correlation between SST and TL ranged between 0.44 and 0.97 depending on lagoons, localities of sensors, and type of SST data. High-resolution-satellite-measurements of SST inside the lagoons did not outperform oceanic SST series, suggesting that SST products are not adapted for small lagoons. Second, we modelled the difference between oceanic SST and TL as a function of the drivers of lagoon water renewal and mixing, namely waves, tide, wind, and season. The multivariate models reduced significantly the bias between oceanic SST and TL. In atoll lagoons, and probably in other hydrodynamically semi-open systems, a correction taking into account these factors is necessary when SST are used to characterize organisms' thermal stress thresholds.

Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands.

PubMed

Hodell, D A; Brenner, M; Curtis, J H; Guilderson, T

2001-05-18

We analyzed lake-sediment cores from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, to reconstruct the climate history of the region over the past 2600 years. Time series analysis of sediment proxies, which are sensitive to the changing ratio of evaporation to precipitation (oxygen isotopes and gypsum precipitation), reveal a recurrent pattern of drought with a dominant periodicity of 208 years. This cycle is similar to the documented 206-year period in records of cosmogenic nuclide production (carbon-14 and beryllium-10) that is thought to reflect variations in solar activity. We conclude that a significant component of century-scale variability in Yucatan droughts is explained by solar forcing. Furthermore, some of the maxima in the 208-year drought cycle correspond with discontinuities in Maya cultural evolution, suggesting that the Maya were affected by these bicentennial oscillations in precipitation.

Soil Dust Aerosols and Wind as Predictors of Seasonal Meningitis Incidence in Niger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perez Garcia Pando, Carlos; Stanton, Michelle C.; Diggle, Peter J.; Trzaska, Sylwia; Miller, Ron L.; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Baldasano, Jose M.; Cuevas, Emilio; Ceccato, Pietro; Yaka, Pascal;

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Uncertainty of Emissions Gridded by On Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (1950-2013) (V. 2016)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [CDIAC; Boden, T. A. [CDIAC

2016-01-01

The annual, gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emissions uncertainty estimates from 1950-2013 provided in this database are derived from time series of global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Boden et al. 2016). Andres et al. (2016) describes the basic methodology in estimating the uncertainty in the (gridded fossil fuel data product ). This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty.

Monthly Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Uncertainty of Emissions Gridded by On Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (Uncertainties, V.2016)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, J.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Boden, T.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2016-01-01

The monthly, gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emissions uncertainty estimates from 1950-2013 provided in this database are derived from time series of global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Boden et al. 2016). Andres et al. (2016) describes the basic methodology in estimating the uncertainty in the (gridded fossil fuel data product ). This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty.

Using Deep Space Climate Observatory Measurements to Study the Earth as an Exoplanet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jonathan H.; Zhai, Albert J.; Herman, Jay; Zhai, Chengxing; Hu, Renyu; Su, Hui; Natraj, Vijay; Li, Jiazheng; Xu, Feng; Yung, Yuk L.

2018-07-01

Even though it was not designed as an exoplanetary research mission, the Deep Space Climate Observatory ( DSCOVR ) has been opportunistically used for a novel experiment in which Earth serves as a proxy exoplanet. More than 2 yr of DSCOVR Earth images were employed to produce time series of multiwavelength, single-point light sources in order to extract information on planetary rotation, cloud patterns, surface type, and orbit around the Sun. In what follows, we assume that these properties of the Earth are unknown and instead attempt to derive them from first principles. These conclusions are then compared with known data about our planet. We also used the DSCOVR data to simulate phase-angle changes, as well as the minimum data collection rate needed to determine the rotation period of an exoplanet. This innovative method of using the time evolution of a multiwavelength, reflected single-point light source can be deployed for retrieving a range of intrinsic properties of an exoplanet around a distant star.

Developing spectral, structural, and phenological diversity proxies for monitoring biodiversity change across space and time using ESA's Sentinel satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Mahecha, M. D.; Migliavacca, M.; Luo, Y.; Urban, M.; Bohn, F. J.; Huth, A.; Reichstein, M.

2017-12-01

A key challenge for monitoring biodiversity change is the lack of consistent measures of biodiversity across space and time. This challenge may be addressed by exploring the potentials provided by novel remote sensing observations. By continuously observing broad-scale patterns of vegetation and land surface parameters, remote sensing can complement the restricted coverage afforded by field measurements. Here we develop methods to infer spatial patterns of biodiversity at ecosystem level from ESA's next-generation Sentinel sensors (Sentinel-1: C-band radar & Sentinel-2: multispectral). Both satellites offer very high spatial (10 m) and temporal resolutions (5 days) measurements with global coverage. We propose and test several ecosystem biodiversity proxies, including landscape spectral diversity, phenological diversity, and canopy structural diversity. These diversity proxies are highly related to some key aspects of essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) as defined by GEO-BON, such as habitat structure, community composition, ecosystem function and structure. We verify spaceborne retrievals of these biodiversity proxies with in situ measurements from drone (spectral diversity), phenocam (phenological diversity), and airborne LiDAR (canopy structural diversity) over multiple flux tower sites within the Mediterranean region. We further compare our remote sensing retrievals of biodiversity proxies against several biodiversity indices as derived from field measurements (incl. ⍺-/β- diversity and Shannon-index) to explore the limitations and potentials of extending the RS proxies to a greater spatial extent. We expect the new concept as to maximize the potential of remote sensing information might help to monitor key aspects of EBVs on a global scale.

A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Broderick, Ciaran; Burt, Timothy P.; Curley, Mary; Duffy, Catriona; Hall, Julia; Harrigan, Shaun; Matthews, Tom K. R.; Macdonald, Neil; McCarthy, Gerard; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ryan, Ciara; Sweeney, John; Thorne, Peter W.; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.

2018-03-01

A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions.

Solution to the Problem of Calibration of Low-Cost Air Quality Measurement Sensors in Networks.

PubMed

Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

2018-04-27

We provide a simple, remote, continuous calibration technique suitable for application in a hierarchical network featuring a few well-maintained, high-quality instruments ("proxies") and a larger number of low-cost devices. The ideas are grounded in a clear definition of the purpose of a low-cost network, defined here as providing reliable information on air quality at small spatiotemporal scales. The technique assumes linearity of the sensor signal. It derives running slope and offset estimates by matching mean and standard deviations of the sensor data to values derived from proxies over the same time. The idea is extremely simple: choose an appropriate proxy and an averaging-time that is sufficiently long to remove the influence of short-term fluctuations but sufficiently short that it preserves the regular diurnal variations. The use of running statistical measures rather than cross-correlation of sites means that the method is robust against periods of missing data. Ideas are first developed using simulated data and then demonstrated using field data, at hourly and 1 min time-scales, from a real network of low-cost semiconductor-based sensors. Despite the almost naïve simplicity of the method, it was robust for both drift detection and calibration correction applications. We discuss the use of generally available geographic and environmental data as well as microscale land-use regression as means to enhance the proxy estimates and to generalize the ideas to other pollutants with high spatial variability, such as nitrogen dioxide and particulates. These improvements can also be used to minimize the required number of proxy sites.

Tales from the South (and West) Pacific in the Common Era: A Climate Proxy Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Partin, J. W.; Maupin, C. R.; Hereid, K. A.; Gorman, M. K.

2010-12-01

The southwest Pacific is a major source of tropical climate variability through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). These variations are especially significant at the annual, interannual (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and multi-decadal timescales. Gridded SST data products are available in the pre-satellite era in this region for the past ~130 years, although data density is a significant issue for the older half of these records. Time series of salinity (SSS) and rainfall from this region are exceedingly rare. Thus, climate proxy records must be used to reconstruct SST, SSS, and rainfall variations in the Common Era (CE) in the tropical Pacific. The analytical laboratory for paleoclimate studies at UT has focused its research efforts into producing climate proxy time series from southwest tropical Pacific using modern and fossil corals, and speleothems. Our most recent results are summarized in this presentation, although much of this work is still in progress. Coral climate records have been generated from Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (16°S, 166°E) and Misima Island, Papua New Guinea (10.6°S, 152.8°E). The Vanuatu coral record of monthly resolved Sr/Ca variations extends back to the late 18th century. All strong ENSO warm phase events of the 20th century observed in the instrumental record are also observed in the coral record. We note that several ENSO warm phase events in the 19th century portion of the coral record are comparable in size to that recorded in response to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The Misima coral record of monthly resolved δ18O and Sr/Ca variations spans the interval ~1414-1645 CE — the heart of the Little Ice Age. Amplitude modulation of interannual variability is observed in this LIA record, much like what is observed during the relatively quiescent period of 1920-1950 in the 20th century instrumental and proxy records of ENSO. However, the amplitude of individual ENSO warm phase events in the LIA record is reduced, relative to that of the 1941/1942 ENSO warm phase events observed in a near modern coral record from Misima. Speleothem climate records have been generated from Espirito Santo, Vanuatu (15.5°S, 167°E) and Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands (~9°S, 160°E). The Vanuatu record of δ18O variations is from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-3 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1670-2005 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. Interannual changes in speleothem δ18O appear to capture ENSO events and subsequent reorganizations of the SPCZ. The Vanuatu speleothem δ18O record also exhibits concentrations of variance on the decadal scale. The Guadalcanal record of δ18O variations is also from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-4 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1650-2010 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. The δ18O records from both of these stalagmites provide evidence for changes in convection in the equatorial WPWP region of the SPCZ: the rising limb of the Pacific Walker Circulation.

Agreement between Myocardial Infarction Patients and Their Spouses on Reporting of Data on 82 Cardiovascular Risk Exposures.

PubMed

Quintana, Hedley Knewjen; Vikström, Max; Andersson, Tomas; Hallqvist, Johan; Leander, Karin

2015-01-01

The validity of exposure data collected from proxy respondents of myocardial infarction patients has scarcely been studied. We assessed the level of disagreement between myocardial infarction patients and their spouses with respect to the reporting of the patient´s cardiovascular risk exposures. Within the frame of the Stockholm Heart Epidemiology Program (SHEEP), a case-control study of risk factors of myocardial infarction performed in Stockholm county 1992-1994, a subset of 327 first time myocardial infarction cases aged 45-70 who survived >28 days after the event and who co-habited with a spouse or common-law spouse (proxy) were identified between 1993-04-05 and 1993-12-31. Among these, 243 cases participated along with their respective proxy in the present study. Control individuals, matched to cases by age, sex and residential area were also included (n = 243). Data were collected using questionnaires. Using conditional logistic regression we calculated for each of 82 exposures the odds ratio based on information collected from 1) myocardial infarction cases and controls [odds ratio A] and 2) proxies and the same set of controls [odds ratio B]. Disagreement was measured by calculating the ratio between odds ratio B and odds ratio A with 95% confidence intervals (CI) calculated using resampling bootstrap. For the vast majority of the exposures considered including diet, smoking, education, work-related stress, and family history of CVD, there was no statistically significant disagreement between myocardial infarction patients and proxies (n = 243 pairs). However, leisure time physical inactivity (proxy bias = 1.59, 95% CI 1.05-3.57) was overestimated by spouses compared to myocardial infarction patients. A few other exposures including some sleep-related problems and work-related issues also showed disagreement. Myocardial infarction patients and their spouses similarly reported data on a wide range of exposures including the majority of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, leisure time physical inactivity being an exception.

Impact of Alcohol Tax Increase on Maryland College Students' Alcohol-Related Outcomes.

PubMed

Smart, Mieka J; Yearwood, Safiya S; Hwang, Seungyoung; Thorpe, Roland J; Furr-Holden, C Debra

2018-05-12

This study A) assessed whether levels of alcohol-related disciplinary actions on college campuses changed among MD college students after the 2011 Maryland (MD) state alcohol tax increase from 6% to 9%, and B) determined which school-level factors impacted the magnitude of changes detected. A quasi-experimental interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of panel data containing alcohol-related disciplinary actions on 33 MD college campuses in years 2006-2013. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine whether there was a statistically significant difference in counts of alcohol-related disciplinary actions comparing time before and after the tax increase. The ITS anaysis showed an insignificant relationship between alcohol-related disciplinary actions and tax implementation (β = -.27; p =.257) but indicated that alcohol-related disciplinary actions decreased significantly over the time under study (β = -.05; p =.022). Alcohol related disciplinary actions did decrease over time in the years of study, and this relationship was correlated with several school-level characteristics, including school price, school funding type, types of degrees awarded, and specialty. School price may serve as a proxy mediator or confounder of the effect of time on disciplinary actions.

Antigen Masking During Fixation and Embedding, Dissected

PubMed Central

Scalia, Carla Rossana; Boi, Giovanna; Bolognesi, Maddalena Maria; Riva, Lorella; Manzoni, Marco; DeSmedt, Linde; Bosisio, Francesca Maria; Ronchi, Susanna; Leone, Biagio Eugenio; Cattoretti, Giorgio

2016-01-01

Antigen masking in routinely processed tissue is a poorly understood process caused by multiple factors. We sought to dissect the effect on antigenicity of each step of processing by using frozen sections as proxies of the whole tissue. An equivalent extent of antigen masking occurs across variable fixation times at room temperature. Most antigens benefit from longer fixation times (>24 hr) for optimal detection after antigen retrieval (AR; for example, Ki-67, bcl-2, ER). The transfer to a graded alcohol series results in an enhanced staining effect, reproduced by treating the sections with detergents, possibly because of a better access of the polymeric immunohistochemical detection system to tissue structures. A second round of masking occurs upon entering the clearing agent, mostly at the paraffin embedding step. This may depend on the non-freezable water removal. AR fully reverses the masking due both to the fixation time and the paraffin embedding. AR itself destroys some epitopes which do not survive routine processing. Processed frozen sections are a tool to investigate fixation and processing requirements for antigens in routine specimens. PMID:27798289

Stability of Mental Toughness, Sleep Disturbances, and Physical Activity in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS)—A Longitudinal and Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Esmaeili, Leila; Shaygannejad, Vahid; Gerber, Markus; Kesselring, Juerg; Lang, Undine E.; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2018-01-01

Background: Previous research of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) focused prevalently on fatigue, depression, and cognitive dysfunction during the clinical course. By contrast, research on the longer-term characteristics of physical activity (PA), psychological functioning, and sleep problems is scarce. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine changes in PA, mental toughness (MT) as a proxy of psychological functioning, and sleep disturbances over a 2-year period of time after disease onset. Methods: A total of 18 patients with diagnosed MS (mean age: M = 34.29 years) took part in this longitudinal study. First, 1–4 weeks after the first symptoms, a neurologist diagnosed the MS. Second, they completed a series of questionnaires covering socio-demographic data, PA, MT, and sleep disturbances. Third, the same questionnaires were completed again 2 years later (follow-up). Last, a neurologist assessed the degree of disability with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Results: Two years after MS onset, patients had lower levels of vigorous PA, but no statistically significant changes in moderate PA were observed. Further, walking time increased and sedentary time decreased. Patients with sleep disturbances at disease onset also reported poor sleep 2 years later. MT scores remained stable over time. EDSS scores worsened, though, change in EDSS was not associated with PA, MT, or sleep. Conclusions: Two years after disease onset, patients with MS reported similar MT levels and sleep disturbances. PA shifted from vigorous PA toward walking and a less sedentary lifestyle, while moderate PA remained unchanged. The pattern of results of the present pilot study suggests that at the early stage of the MS course, there is no obstacle for being physically active, nor did sleep and MT as a proxy of psychological functioning decrease in a substantial way. PMID:29867606

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Inter-rater agreement of the Quality of Life-Alzheimer's Disease (QoL-AD) self-rating and proxy rating scale: secondary analysis of RightTimePlaceCare data.

PubMed

Römhild, Josephine; Fleischer, Steffen; Meyer, Gabriele; Stephan, Astrid; Zwakhalen, Sandra; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Zabalegui, Adelaida; Saks, Kai; Soto-Martin, Maria; Sutcliffe, Caroline; Rahm Hallberg, Ingalill; Berg, Almuth

2018-06-28

To assess the quality of life of people with dementia, measures are required for self-rating by the person with dementia, and for proxy rating by others. The Quality of Life in Alzheimer's Disease scale (QoL-AD) is available in two versions, QoL-AD-SR (self-rating) and QoL-AD-PR (proxy rating). The aim of our study was to analyse the inter-rater agreement between self- and proxy ratings, in terms of both the total score and the items, including an analysis specific to care setting, and to identify factors associated with this agreement. Cross-sectional QoL-AD data from the 7th Framework European RightTimePlaceCare study were analysed. A total of 1330 cases were included: n = 854 receiving home care and n = 476 receiving institutional long-term nursing care. The proxy raters were informal carers (home care) and best-informed professional carers (institutional long-term nursing care). Inter-rater agreement was investigated using Bland-Altman plots for the QoL-AD total score and by weighted kappa statistics for single items. Associations were investigated by regression analysis. The overall QoL-AD assessment of those with dementia revealed a mean value of 33.2 points, and the proxy ratings revealed a mean value of 29.8 points. The Bland-Altman plots revealed a poor agreement between self- and proxy ratings for the overall sample and for both care settings. With one exception (item 'Marriage' weighted kappa 0.26), the weighted kappa values for the single QoL-AD items were below 0.20, indicating poor agreement. Home care setting, dementia-related behavioural and psychological symptoms, and the functional status of the person with dementia, along with the caregiver burden, were associated with the level of agreement. Only the home care setting was associated with an increase larger than the predefined acceptable difference between self- and proxy ratings. Proxy quality of life ratings from professional and informal carers appear to be lower than the self-ratings of those with dementia. QoL-AD-SR and QoL-AD-PR are therefore not interchangeable, as the inter-rater agreement differs distinctly. Thus, a proxy rating should be judged as a complementary perspective for a self-assessment of quality of life by those with dementia, rather than as a valid substitute.

Climate proxy data as groundwater tracers in regional flow systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, J. F.; Morrissey, S. K.; Stute, M.

2008-05-01

The isotopic and chemical signatures of groundwater reflect local climate conditions. By systematically analyzing groundwater and determining their hydrologic setting, records of past climates can be constructed. Because of their chemistries and relatively uncomplicated source functions, dissolved noble gases have yielded reliable records of continental temperatures for the last 30,000 to 50,000 years. Variations in the stable isotope compositions of groundwater due to long term climate changes have also been documented over these time scales. Because glacial - interglacial climate changes are relatively well known, these climate proxies can be used as "stratigraphic" markers within flow systems and used to distinguish groundwaters that have recharged during the Holocene from those recharged during the last glacial period, important time scales for distinguishing regional and local flow systems in many aquifers. In southern Georgia, the climate proxy tracers were able to identify leakage from surface aquifers into the Upper Floridan aquifer in areas previously thought to be confined. In south Florida, the transition between Holocene and glacial signatures in the Upper Floridan aquifer occurs mid-way between the recharge area and Lake Okeechobee. Down gradient of the lake, the proxies are uniform, indicating recharge during the last glacial period. Furthermore, there is no evidence for leakage from the shallow aquifers into the Upper Floridan. In the Lower Floridan, the climate proxies indicate that the saline water entered the aquifer after sea level rose to its present level.

South American Monsoon variability during the past 2,000 years from stable isotopic proxies and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M.; Cruz, F. W.; Abbott, M.; Bird, B. W.; Burns, S. J.; Cheng, H.; Colose, C. M.; Kanner, L. C.; LeGrande, A. N.; Novello, V. F.; Taylor, B. L.

2012-12-01

The rapidly growing number of high-resolution stable isotopic proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments, located in the South American summer monsoon (SASM) belt, will soon allow for a comprehensive analysis of climate variability in the South American tropics and subtropics over the past ~ 2000 years. In combination with isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (GCMs) this offers new prospects for better understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of the South American monsoon system and for diagnosing its sensitivities to external forcing mechanisms (solar, volcanic) and modes of ocean-atmosphere variability (e.g. ENSO and AMO). In this presentation we will discuss the rationale for interpreting isotopic excursions recorded in various proxies from the Andes, northeastern and southeastern Brazil as indicative of changes in monsoon intensity. We will focus on the past 2 millenia when isotopic proxies from the SASM region show a very coherent behavior regardless of the type of archive or their location. All proxies exhibit significant decadal to multidecadal variability, superimposed on large excursions during three key periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Current Warm Period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative delta-18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000- year historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. One interpretation of these centennial-scale climate anomalies suggests that they were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the northern hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity and degree of rainout upstream of the proxy locations, over the tropical continent. This interpretation is supported by several independent proxy archives and modeling studies. One question that remains, however, is how ENSO, arguably the main forcing factor for delta-18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, interacts with and may be modulated by low-frequency North Atlantic forcing. Our analysis also implies that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, are complementary to more traditional proxies such as tree rings or historical archives, which record in-situ climate variations. Future climate reconstructions therefore should make an effort to include isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Machine learning methods as a tool to analyse incomplete or irregularly sampled radon time series data.

PubMed

Janik, M; Bossew, P; Kurihara, O

2018-07-15

Machine learning is a class of statistical techniques which has proven to be a powerful tool for modelling the behaviour of complex systems, in which response quantities depend on assumed controls or predictors in a complicated way. In this paper, as our first purpose, we propose the application of machine learning to reconstruct incomplete or irregularly sampled data of time series indoor radon ( 222 Rn). The physical assumption underlying the modelling is that Rn concentration in the air is controlled by environmental variables such as air temperature and pressure. The algorithms "learn" from complete sections of multivariate series, derive a dependence model and apply it to sections where the controls are available, but not the response (Rn), and in this way complete the Rn series. Three machine learning techniques are applied in this study, namely random forest, its extension called the gradient boosting machine and deep learning. For a comparison, we apply the classical multiple regression in a generalized linear model version. Performance of the models is evaluated through different metrics. The performance of the gradient boosting machine is found to be superior to that of the other techniques. By applying learning machines, we show, as our second purpose, that missing data or periods of Rn series data can be reconstructed and resampled on a regular grid reasonably, if data of appropriate physical controls are available. The techniques also identify to which degree the assumed controls contribute to imputing missing Rn values. Our third purpose, though no less important from the viewpoint of physics, is identifying to which degree physical, in this case environmental variables, are relevant as Rn predictors, or in other words, which predictors explain most of the temporal variability of Rn. We show that variables which contribute most to the Rn series reconstruction, are temperature, relative humidity and day of the year. The first two are physical predictors, while "day of the year" is a statistical proxy or surrogate for missing or unknown predictors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Field, Robert D.; Arneth, Almut; Forrest, Matthew; Hantson, Stijn; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stéphane; Yue, Chao; Kaiser, Johannes W.; van der Werf, Guido R.

2017-09-01

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr-1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

A review of sea ice proxy information from polar ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Nerilie J.; Wolff, Eric W.; Curran, Mark A. J.

2013-11-01

Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate system. The lack of direct indications of past sea ice coverage, however, means that there is limited knowledge of the sensitivity and rate at which sea ice dynamics are involved in amplifying climate changes. As such, there is a need to develop new proxy records for reconstructing past sea ice conditions. Here we review the advances that have been made in using chemical tracers preserved in ice cores to determine past changes in sea ice cover around Antarctica. Ice core records of sea salt concentration show promise for revealing patterns of sea ice extent particularly over glacial-interglacial time scales. In the coldest climates, however, the sea salt signal appears to lose sensitivity and further work is required to determine how this proxy can be developed into a quantitative sea ice indicator. Methane sulphonic acid (MSA) in near-coastal ice cores has been used to reconstruct quantified changes and interannual variability in sea ice extent over shorter time scales spanning the last ˜160 years, and has potential to be extended to produce records of Antarctic sea ice changes throughout the Holocene. However the MSA ice core proxy also requires careful site assessment and interpretation alongside other palaeoclimate indicators to ensure reconstructions are not biased by non-sea ice factors, and we summarise some recommended strategies for the further development of sea ice histories from ice core MSA. For both proxies the limited information about the production and transfer of chemical markers from the sea ice zone to the Antarctic ice sheets remains an issue that requires further multidisciplinary study. Despite some exploratory and statistical work, the application of either proxy as an indicator of sea ice change in the Arctic also remains largely unknown. As information about these new ice core proxies builds, so too does the potential to develop a more comprehensive understanding of past changes in sea ice and its role in both long and short-term climate changes.

April-August temperatures in the Czech Lands, 1499-2015, reconstructed from grape-harvest dates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Možný, Martin; Brázdil, Rudolf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Trnka, Miroslav

2016-07-01

Viticulture has long been essential to the commercial and social well-being of parts of the Czech Lands (now the Czech Republic), and detailed records have been kept for centuries of the timing and relative success of the grape crop. Using such documentary data from the Bohemian wine-growing region (mainly northwest of the capital, Prague), series of grape-harvest dates (GHDs) were created for the 1499-2015 period. Because the link between harvest dates and temperatures is strong, GHD series, together with instrumental mean temperature series starting in 1801, were used to reconstruct mean April-August temperatures for the region from 1499 to 2015. Linear regression (LR) and variance scaling (VS) methods were used for calibration and compared in terms of explained variance and their ability to capture extreme values. It emerged that LR does not significantly underestimate temperature variability. However, VS shows far greater capacity to capture extremes. GHDs explain 64 % of temperature variability over the full calibration period. The 1986-2015 period was identified as the warmest 30-year period of the past 514 years, an observation consistent with recent global warming. The highest April-August temperatures appeared in a reconstruction for the year 1540, which was warmer than the next two very warm, and far more recent, seasons in 2003 and 2015. The coldest period occurred at the beginning of the 20th century (1900-1929). The series reconstructed for the Czech Lands is in close agreement with other (central) European reconstructions based on other proxies. The series created here makes an important contribution to a better understanding of long-term spatiotemporal temperature variability in central Europe.

Oceanographic and climatic evolution of the southeastern subtropical Atlantic over the last 3.5 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, Benjamin; McClymont, Erin L.; Littler, Kate; Rosell-Melé, Antoni; Clarkson, Matthew O.; Maslin, Mark; Röhl, Ursula; Shevenell, Amelia E.; Pancost, Richard D.

2018-06-01

The southeast Atlantic Ocean is dominated by two major oceanic systems: the Benguela Upwelling System, one of the world's most productive coastal upwelling cells and the Agulhas Leakage, which is important for transferring warm salty water from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. Here, we present a multi-proxy record of marine sediments from ODP Site 1087. We reconstruct sea surface temperatures (U37K‧ and TEX86 indices), marine primary productivity (total chlorin and alkenone mass accumulation rates), and terrestrial inputs derived from southern Africa (Ti/Al and Ca/Ti via XRF scanning) to understand the evolution of the Southeast Atlantic Ocean since the late Pliocene. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, ODP Site 1087 was situated within the Benguela Upwelling System, which was displaced southwards relative to present. We recognize a series of events in the proxy records at 3.3, 3.0, 2.2, 1.5, 0.9 and 0.6 Ma, which are interpreted to reflect a combination of changes in the location of major global wind and oceanic systems and local variations in the strength and/or position of the winds, which influence nutrient availability. Although there is a temporary SST cooling observed around the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (iNHG), proxy records from ODP Site 1087 show no clear climatic transition around 2.7 Ma but instead most of the changes occur before this time. This observation is significant because it has been previously suggested that there should be a change in the location and/or strength of upwelling associated with this climate transition. Rather, the main shifts at ODP Site 1087 occur at ca. 0.9 Ma and 0.6 Ma, associated with the early mid-Pleistocene transition (EMPT), with a clear loss of the previous upwelling-dominated regime. This observation raises the possibility that reorganisation of southeast Atlantic Ocean circulation towards modern conditions was tightly linked to the EMPT, but not to earlier climate transitions.

High-resolution paleoclimatology of the Santa Barbara Basin during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and early Little Ice Age based on diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages in Kasten core SPR0901-02KC

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David B.; Hendy, Ingrid L.

2015-01-01

Diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages documented in a high-resolution time series spanning 800 to 1600 AD in varved sediment recovered in Kasten core SPR0901-02KC (34°16.845’ N, 120°02.332’ W, water depth 588 m) from the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) reveal that SBB surface water conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the early part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) were not extreme by modern standards, mostly falling within one standard deviation of mean conditions during the pre anthropogenic interval of 1748 to 1900. No clear differences between the character of MCA and the early LIA conditions are apparent. During intervals of extreme droughts identified by terrigenous proxy scanning XRF analyses, diatom and silicoflagellate proxies for coastal upwelling typically exceed one standard deviation above mean values for 1748-1900, supporting the hypothesis that droughts in southern California are associated with cooler (or La Niña-like) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Increased percentages of diatoms transported downslope generally coincide with intervals of increased siliciclastic flux to the SBB identified by scanning XRF analyses. Diatom assemblages suggest only two intervals of the MCA (at ~897 to 922 and ~1151 to 1167) when proxy SSTs exceeded one standard deviation above mean values for 1748 to 1900. Conversely, silicoflagellates imply extreme warm water events only at ~830 to 860 (early MCA) and ~1360 to 1370 (early LIA) that are not supported by the diatom data. Silicoflagellates appear to be more suitable for characterizing average climate during the 5 to 11 year-long sample intervals studied in the SPR0901-02KC core than diatoms, probably because diatom relative abundances may be dominated by seasonal blooms of a particular year.

GDGT and alkenone flux in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Implications for the TEX86 and UK'37 paleothermometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, Julie N.; Tierney, Jessica E.

2016-12-01

The TEX86 and U37K' molecular biomarker proxies have been broadly applied in downcore marine sediments to reconstruct past sea surface temperature (SST). Although both TEX86 and U37K' have been interpreted as proxies for mean annual SST throughout the global ocean, regional studies of glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and alkenones in sinking particles are required to understand the influence of seasonality, depth distribution, and diagenesis on downcore variability. We measure GDGT and alkenone flux, as well as the TEX86 and U37K' indices in a 4 year sediment trap time series (2010-2014) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM), and compare these data with core-top sediments at the same location. GDGT and alkenone fluxes do not show a consistent seasonal cycle; however, the largest flux peaks for both occurs in winter. U37K' covaries with SST over the 4 year sampling interval, but the U37K'-SST relationship in this data set implies a smaller slope or nonlinearity at high temperatures when compared with existing calibrations. Furthermore, the flux-weighted U37K' value from sinking particles is significantly lower than that of underlying core-top sediments, suggesting preferential diagenetic loss of the tri-unsaturated alkenone in sediments. TEX86 does not covary with SST, suggesting production in the subsurface upper water column. The flux-weighted mean TEX86 matches that of core-top sediments, confirming that TEX86 in the nGoM reflects local planktonic production rather than allochthonous or in situ sedimentary production. We explore potential sources of uncertainty in both proxies in the nGoM but demonstrate that they show nearly identical trends in twentieth century SST, despite these factors.

Toward an Operational Proxy for Acquisition Workforce Quality: Measuring Dynamic Knowledge and Performance at the Tactical Edges of Organizations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-13

Business & Public Policy Naval Postgraduate School Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection...presented in this report was supported by the Acquisition Research Program of the Graduate School of Business & Public Policy at the Naval...Program GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS & PUBLIC POLICY - iii - NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL NPS-AM-12-206 ACQUISITION RESEARCH SPONSORED REPORT SERIES

Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Clouds With Spaceborne Lidar: CALIPSO and the 2006 Antarctic Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitts, Michael C.; Thomason, L. W.; Poole, Lamont R.; Winker, David M.

2007-01-01

The role of polar stratospheric clouds in polar ozone loss has been well documented. The CALIPSO satellite mission offers a new opportunity to characterize PSCs on spatial and temporal scales previously unavailable. A PSC detection algorithm based on a single wavelength threshold approach has been developed for CALIPSO. The method appears to accurately detect PSCs of all opacities, including tenuous clouds, with a very low rate of false positives and few missed clouds. We applied the algorithm to CALIPSO data acquired during the 2006 Antarctic winter season from 13 June through 31 October. The spatial and temporal distribution of CALIPSO PSC observations is illustrated with weekly maps of PSC occurrence. The evolution of the 2006 PSC season is depicted by time series of daily PSC frequency as a function of altitude. Comparisons with virtual solar occultation data indicate that CALIPSO provides a different view of the PSC season than attained with previous solar occultation satellites. Measurement-based time series of PSC areal coverage and vertically-integrated PSC volume are computed from the CALIPSO data. The observed area covered with PSCs is significantly smaller than would be inferred from a temperature-based proxy such as TNAT but is similar in magnitude to that inferred from TSTS. The potential of CALIPSO measurements for investigating PSC microphysics is illustrated using combinations of lidar backscatter coefficient and volume depolarization to infer composition for two CALIPSO PSC scenes.

Climate variability from the Florida Bay sedimentary record: Possible teleconnections to ENSO, PNA and CNP

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.; Schwede, S.B.; Vann, C.D.; Dowsett, H.

2002-01-01

We analyzed decadal and interannual climate variability in South Florida since 1880 using geochemical and faunal paleosalinity indicators from isotopically dated sediment cores at Russell Bank in Florida Bay (FB). Using the relative abundance of 2 ostracode species and the Mg/Ca ratios in Loxoconcha matagordensis shells to reconstruct paleosalinity, we found evidence for cyclic oscillations in the salinity of central FB. During this time salinity fluctuated from as low as ~18 parts per thousand (ppt) to as high as ~57 ppt. Time series analyses suggest, in addition to a 5.6 yr Mg/Ca based salinity periodicity, there are 3 other modes of variability in paleosalinity indicators: 6-7, 8-9, and 13-14 yr periods which occur in all paleo-proxies. To search for factors that might cause salinity to vary in FB, we compared the Russell Bank paleosalinity record to South Florida winter rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the winter Pacific North American (PNA) index, and a surrogate for the PNA in the winter season, the Central North Pacific (CNP) index. SOI and PNA/CNP appear to be associated with South Florida winter precipitation. Time series analyses of SOI and winter rainfall for the period 1910-1999 suggest ~5, 6-7, 8-9 and 13-14 yr cycles. The 6-7 yr and 13-14 yr cycles correspond to those observed in the faunal and geochemical time series from Russell Bank. The main periods of the CNP index are 5-6 and 13-15 yr, which are similar to those observed in FB paleosalinity. Cross-spectral analyses show that winter rainfall and salinity are coherent at 5.6 yr with a salinity lag of ~1.6 mo. These results suggest that regional rainfall variability influences FB salinity over interannual and decadal timescales and that much of this variability may have its origin in climate variability in the Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system.

Sedimentary Environment and Climate Evolution at the Northern Continental Margin of the South China Sea During the Last Glacial Cycle and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczak, M.; Kaiser, J.; Borowka, R. K.; Chen, H.; Zhang, J.; Harff, J.; Qiu, Y.; Witkowski, A.

2014-12-01

Climate, oceanographic and sea level history during last glacial cycle (LGC) and Holocene at the NW continental margin of the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated within the SECEB project. For that purpose two sediment cores (HDQ2 & 83PC) and single-channel seismic sections were selected to serve as a proxy data source for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic reconstructions. The sedimentary facies is interpreted by multi-proxy approaches considering micropaleontological, sedimentological and geochemical analyses. According to 14C and OSL datings, sediments of shallow water drill core HDQ2 (88.3 m) cover a time span of ca. 115 kyr BP. Seismic images of the sampling site show a series of reflectors which can be correlated with coarse layers of core HDQ2. These layers are interpreted as transgression / regression horizons. Due to the age model it is possible to correlate these horizons with the general sea level dynamics within the SCS as it is displayed in relative sea level excursions for the MIS 5 to 2 from the Sunda Shelf (Hanebuth et al. 2011). Core 83PC (8.6 m) retrieved from the continental slope provide constant record and calm environment. Therefore, this core is used as a source for data proxy for environmental reconstructions. According to δ18O and paleomagnetic analysis, a good age model which indicate age of this core to ca. 110 kyr BP was elaborated and help correlate the paleoenvironmental data with core HDQ2. Alkenones, δ18O, the Mg/Ca ratio, and microfossil proxies serve for paleo-SST curves and monsoon variability reconstructions. δ15N and δ13C indicate nutrient supply to the marine environment. Diatomological analysis outlines the environmental evolution and interrelations between their parameters during the LGC. Interpretation of seismic profiling allowed identification of submarine paleo-delta. It's anticipated that deposited sediments descent from the Hainan Island and allow correlation of the source and sink area.Hanebuth, T.J.J, Voris, H.K., Yokoyama, Y., Saito, Y., Okuno, J., 2011. Formation and fate of sedimentary depocentres on Southeast Asia's Sunda Shelf over the past sea-level cycle and biogeographic implications. Earth-Science Reviews 104, p. 92-110The project was funded by the Polish National Science Centre allocated on the basis of the decision no. DEC-2011/01/N/ST10/07708

Simulation of Wake Vortex Radiometric Detection via Jet Exhaust Proxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.

2015-01-01

This paper describes an analysis of the potential of an airborne hyperspectral imaging IR instrument to infer wake vortices via turbine jet exhaust as a proxy. The goal was to determine the requirements for an imaging spectrometer or radiometer to effectively detect the exhaust plume, and by inference, the location of the wake vortices. The effort examines the gas spectroscopy of the various major constituents of turbine jet exhaust and their contributions to the modeled detectable radiance. Initially, a theoretical analysis of wake vortex proxy detection by thermal radiation was realized in a series of simulations. The first stage used the SLAB plume model to simulate turbine jet exhaust plume characteristics, including exhaust gas transport dynamics and concentrations. The second stage used these plume characteristics as input to the Line By Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to simulate responses from both an imaging IR hyperspectral spectrometer or radiometer. These numerical simulations generated thermal imagery that was compared with previously reported wake vortex temperature data. This research is a continuation of an effort to specify the requirements for an imaging IR spectrometer or radiometer to make wake vortex measurements. Results of the two-stage simulation will be reported, including instrument specifications for wake vortex thermal detection. These results will be compared with previously reported results for IR imaging spectrometer performance.

A Multi-Proxy Approach to Reconstruct Climate Variability in the Western Mediterranean across the Penultimate and Last Glacial Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixit, Y.; Toucanne, S.; Bonnin, L.; Fontanier, C.; Jouet, G.; Tripati, A. K.

2016-12-01

The Mediterranean as a model miniature ocean is an ideal study area for the links between climate change and anoxia. Organic rich-sapropelic deposits punctuate Quaternary sediments series in the basin. These deposits reveal the occurrence of anoxic conditions during times when the circulation of the Mediterranean ocean was deeply perturbed. The `'Nilotic paradigm' proposes anoxia was a direct result of massive inputs of fresh water from the Nile. It is also possible that these sapropels could occur in response to periods of intense rainfall and riverine discharge on the northern Mediterranean coast. To resolve the sequence of events linked to sapropel deposition in the western Mediterranean, we use a multi-proxy (oxygen and carbon isotopes, benthic foraminifera assemblage and trace element geochemistry of foraminifera calcite) approach to examine sediments from the Tyrhennian Sea off the eastern Corsica margin in order to reconstruct climate variability during the penultimate glacial termination, and we compare results to those for the last glacial period. Our preliminary results show increased abundance of epifaunal and deep infaunal benthic species during MIS 5e ( 122-125 kyr BP), accompanied by a rise in Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) using G. bulloides. A sharp decline in SST at 135 kyr BP coincides with Heinrich Stadial 5 in the North Atlantic. We will compare the timing of Mg/Ca-based SST minima and reconstructed water d18O variations to Heinrich Stadials in the North Atlantic in order to infer the mechanisms responsible for cooling in the Tyrrhenian Sea. This analysis should shed light on the proposed atmospheric teleconnection causing cooling of western Mediterranean waters via intensification of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude wind systems.

A two millennium-long hot drought in the southwestern United States driven by Arctic sea-ice retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Denniston, R. F.

2017-12-01

The Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin are susceptible to sustained droughts that impact water resources and economic activity for millions of residents of the southwestern United States. The causes of past droughts in the basin remain debated. Herein, we document a strong Arctic to mid-latitude teleconnection during the Holocene that resulted in an extreme `hot drought' persisting for more than two millennia in the southwestern United States, based on a continuous growth rate and new high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotopic time series from a precisely-dated stalagmite from Leviathan Cave, Nevada. Between 9850-7670 yr B2k, highest Holocene oxygen isotope values indicate warm temperatures and moisture-sensitive proxies of high carbon isotope values and low stalagmite growth rate and minimal soil productivity and aquifer recharge. We refer to this period as the Altithermal Hot Drought. A second interval (6770 to 5310 yr B2k) indicates a warm drought. The two Altithermal droughts exceed in severity and duration any droughts observed in the modern and tree-ring records. Further, we show that Altithermal hot droughts were widespread in the southwestern United States, at a time when human populations in the Great Basin were low. The droughts show strong similarities to proxies for Arctic paleoclimate and we suggest that insolation-driven changes in sea ice and snow cover extent in the high latitudes drove atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Great Basin. Because rising greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase global and Arctic temperatures with a possible loss of summer sea by the end of the 21st century, our record suggests that a return to prolonged hotter and drier conditions in the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin is possible within coming centuries.

Beyond the NAO: Dynamics and Precipitation Implications of the Azores High Since AD 800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thatcher, D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Denniston, R. F.; Asmerom, Y.; Ummenhofer, C.; Polyak, V. J.; Haws, J.; Gillikin, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region during the last millennium, particularly the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a system closely tied to regional precipitation dynamics, remains the subject of considerable debate in both proxy- and model-based studies. It has been suggested that the winter NAO was in a persistently positive state during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 850-1250), resulting in increased precipitation across much of northern Europe and decreased rainfall across Iberia. However, besides changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation dynamics that could be associated with an altered mean state of the NAO, relatively little attention has been given to atmospheric dynamics, namely the intensity and location, of the subtropical high system (Azores High, the southern node of the NAO) in driving hydroclimate in Iberia. Presented here is a continuous, precisely dated, and sub-decadally-resolved stalagmite isotopic and elemental time series from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, western Portugal, situated within the center of the Azores High at the southern node of the NAO, which preserves evidence of regional hydroclimate from approximately AD 800 to the present. Stalagmite oxygen and carbon isotopic values and magnesium/calcium ratios primarily reflect effective moisture and reveal generally dry conditions during the MCA with a rapid shift to wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1250-1850) at this location. Our proxy data reveal that substantial short-term hydroclimate variability characterized the last 1200 years. They support the hypothesis that while an intensified, semi-persistent subtropical high (and likely positive NAO state) characterized much of the MCA, the NAO remained variable over this time period. Climate model results also suggest that the Azores High pressure system both migrated southward and weakened from the MCA into the LIA.

Land-Sea relationships of climate-related records: example of the Holocene in the eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vernal, Anne; Fréchette, Bianca; Hillaire-Marcel, Claude

2017-04-01

Anne de Vernal, Bianca Fréchette, Claude Hillaire-Marcel Important progresses have been made to reconstruct climate and ocean changes through time. However, there is often a hiatus between the land-based climate reconstructions and paleoceanographical data. The reconstructed parameters are not the same (e.g. surface air temperature vs. sea-surface temperature). Moreover, the spatial (local to regional) and temporal dimensions (seasonal, annual to multi-decadal) of proxy-data are often inconsistent, thus preventing direct correlation of time series and often leading to uncertainties in multi-site, multi-proxy compilations. Here, we address the issue of land-sea relationships in the eastern Canadian Arctic-Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea-western Greenland based on the examination of different climate-related information from marine cores (dinocysts) collected nearshore vs. offshore, ice cores (isotopes), fjord and lake data (pollen). The combined information tends to indicate that "climate" changes are not easily neither adequately captured by temperature and temperature shifts. However, the seasonal contrast of temperatures seems to be a key parameter. Whereas it is often attenuated offshore, it is generally easy to reconstruct nearshore, where water stratification is usually stronger. The confrontation of data also shows a relationship between ice core data and sea-ice cover and/or sea-surface salinity, suggesting that air-sea exchanges in basins surrounding ice sheets play a significant role with respect to their isotopic composition. On the whole, combined onshore-offshore data consistently suggest a two-step shift towards optimal summer and winter conditions the circum Baffin Bay and northern Labrador Sea at 7.5 and 6 ka BP. These delayed optimal conditions seem to result from ice-meltwater discharges maintaining low salinity conditions in marine surface waters and thus a strong seasonality.

Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

2013-12-01

Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

Does the Nile reflect solar variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Feynman, Joan; Yung, Yuk

Historical records of the Nile water level provide a unique opportunity to investigate the possibility that solar variability influences the Earth's climate. Particularly important are the annual records of the water level, which are uninterrupted for the years 622-1470 A.D. These records are non-stationary, so that standard spectral analyses cannot adequately characterize them. Here the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, which is designed to deal with non-stationary, nonlinear time series, becomes useful. It allows the identification of two characteristic time scales in the water level data that can be linked to solar variability: the 88 year period and a time scale of about 200 years. These time scales are also present in the concurrent aurora data. Auroras are driven by coronal mass ejections and the rate of auroras is an excellent proxy for solar variabiliy. Analysis of auroral data contemporaneous with the Nile data shows peaks at 88 years and about 200 years. This suggests a physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. The link involves the influence of solar variability on the North Annual Mode of atmospheric variability and its North Atlantic and Indian Oceans patterns that affect rainfall over Eastren Equatorial Africa where the Nile originates.

March-June temperature reconstruction in the Czech Lands based on cereal harvest dates in the 1501-2008 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Dobrovolný, Petr; Trnka, Mirek

2010-05-01

Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1848, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles, diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501-2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March-June temperatures in the Czech Lands, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517-1542, 1788-1834 and 1946-2008. The period after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501-2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-ring and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture. (The paper was supported by Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, project No. 521/08/1682.)

Dolni Vestonice (Czech Republic) an intermédiate loess series between Western and eastern European records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, D.; Antoine, P.; Hatte, C.; Lagroix, F.; Fuchs, M.; Moine, O.; Gauthier, C.; Svoboda, J.; Lisa, L.

2010-12-01

Previous investigations on western and eastern European loess series have shown similarities at least for the main loess deposition during the last climate cycle, recording North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes, the Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events. To address the question of how such record occurred through modeling experiments (Sima et al., QSR, 2009), we need reference series located in an intermediary position between the Nussloch (Germany - Antoine et al, QI 2001, QSR, 2009; Rousseau et al, GRL 2007) and Stayky (Ukraine -Rousseau et al, Clim Past D 2010) loess series at about 50°N latitude, location of the main deposits. The key sequence of Dolni Vestonice in southern Czech Republic, had been investigated previously and described by many authors since 1961, and more especially by G Kukla and B Klima. Here we present the preliminary results of the new study of this key sequence by a multidisciplinary study, supported by ANR-ACTES project, combining the detailed stratigraphy, AMS 14C and IRSL dating, rock magnetic property, grain size, d13C and mollusks analyses. We applied the same sampling protocol than previously developed, by carefully cleaning the sequence on a vertical panel, 15m high and 5m wide in order to have parallel samples (on continuous columns) easily comparable. The results show similar patterns, high frequency variations of the different proxies in the upper part of the record corresponding to MIS 3 and 2, as observed in western and eastern European sequences supporting then our assumption of the recording of N Atlantic abrupt changes over Europe. Other interesting variations are clearly demonstrated for every proxy making these results remarkable new data for individual in deep studies. Moreover our detailed investigation also shows new data about abrupt dust events, markers, in the lower part of the sequence, and previously interpreted as strong dust events, and how they appear within sedimentary cycles linked to the cyclicity at the base of the last climate cycle.

The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Daniel Griffin; Peter van der Sleen; Alan D. Wanamaker; James H. Speer; David C. Frank; David W. Stahle; Neil Pederson; Carolyn A. Copenheaver; Valerie Trouet; Shelly Griffin; Bronwyn M. Gillanders

2016-01-01

High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time...

Spatial performance of RegEM climate field reconstruction techniques in a realistic pseudoproxy context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.

2011-12-01

Several methods of climate field reconstructions (CFRs) have been introduced in the past few years to estimate past climate variability from proxy data over the Common Era. The pseudoproxy framework has become a tool of choice for assessing the relative merits of such methods. Here we compare four variants of the RegEM algorithm [Schneider, 2001], using a pseudoproxy network mimicking the key spatio-temporal characteristics of the network of Mann et al., 2008 (hereinafter M08); the methods are (1) RegEM TTLS (2) RegEM iTTLS (3) GraphEM and (4) RegEM iRIDGE. To ensure continuity with previous work [Smerdon et al. 2011], pseudoproxy series are designed as a white-noise degraded version of the simulated temperature field [Amman et al. 2007] over 850-1980 C.E. colocated with 1138 M08 proxies. We use signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of: ∞ (no noise), 1.0, 0.5 and 0.25, to simulate differences in proxy quality. Two novelties in pseudoproxy design are introduced here: (1) the decrease in proxy availability over time follows that found in M08, (2) a realistic case where the SNR is empirically derived from correlations between each M08 proxy and the HadCRUT3v temperature field. It is found that this realistic SNR is clustered around 0.3, but ranges from 0.1 to 0.8. Verification statistics such as RE, CE, r2, bias, standard deviation ratio and RMSE are presented for each method at each SNR level. The results show that all methods perform relatively well at SNR levels higher than 0.5, but display drastically different performances at lower SNR levels. Compared with results using pseudoproxy network of Mann et al., 1998, (hereinafter MBH98), the reconstruction skill of the M08 network is relatively improved, in line with the findings of Smerdon et al., 2011. Overall, we find that GraphEM and iTTLS tend to produce more robust estimates of the temperature field at low SNR levels than other schemes, while preserving a higher amount of variance in the target field. Ammann, C. M., F. Joos, D. S. Schimel, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and R. A. Tomas (2007), Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 104, 3713-3718, doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998), Global-scale temperaturepatterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, doi:10.1038/33859. Mann, M. E., S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. Ammann (2007), Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272. Mann, M. E., et al. (2008), Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105, 13,252-13,257, doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105. Schneider, T. (2001), Analysis of incomplete climate data: Estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values, J. Clim., 14, 853-871, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0853: AOICDE>2.0.CO;2. Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, and M. N. Evans (2011), Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372.

Oral health-related quality of life in youth receiving cleft-related surgery: self-report and proxy ratings.

PubMed

Broder, Hillary L; Wilson-Genderson, Maureen; Sischo, Lacey

2017-04-01

This paper evaluated the impact of cleft-related surgery on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) of youth with cleft over time. Data were derived from a 5-year, multi-center, prospective, longitudinal study of 1196 youth with cleft lip and/or palate and their caregivers. Eligible youth were between 7.5 and 18.5 years old, spoke English or Spanish, and were non-syndromic. During each observational period, which included baseline, and 1- and 2-year post-baseline follow-up visits, youths and their caregivers completed the Child Oral Health Impact Profile, a validated measure of OHRQoL. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to analyze the effects of receipt of craniofacial surgery on OHRQoL over time. During the course of this study a total of 516 patients (43 %) received at least one surgery. Youth in the surgery recommendation group had lower self- (β = -2.18, p < 0.05) and proxy-rated (β = -2.92, p < 0.02) OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical self- and proxy-rated OHRQoL at baseline. Both surgical and non-surgical youth (β = 3.73, p < 0.001) and caregiver (β = 1.91, p < 0.05) ratings of OHRQoL improved over time. There was significant incremental improvement (time × surgery interaction) in self-reported OHRQoL for youth postsurgery (β = 1.04, p < 0.05), but this postsurgery increment was not seen in the caregiver proxy ratings. Surgical intervention impacts OHRQoL among youth with cleft. Youth who were surgical candidates had lower baseline self- and caregiver-rated OHRQoL when compared to non-surgical youth. Youth who underwent cleft-related surgery had significant incremental improvements in self-rated but not caregiver (proxy)-rated OHRQoL after surgery.

Atmospheric constituents and surface-level UVB: Implications for a paleoaltimetry proxy and attempts to reconstruct UV exposure during volcanic episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Brian C.; Goracke, Byron D.; Dalton, Sean M.

2016-11-01

Chemical and morphological features of spores and pollens have been linked to changes in solar ultraviolet radiation (specifically UVB, 280-315 nm) at Earth's surface. Variation in UVB exposure as inferred from these features has been suggested as a proxy for paleoaltitude; such proxies are important in understanding the uplift history of high altitude plateaus, which in turn is important for testing models of the tectonic processes responsible for such uplift. While UVB irradiance does increase with altitude above sea level, a number of other factors affect the irradiance at any given place and time. In this modeling study we use the TUV atmospheric radiative transfer model to investigate dependence of surface-level UVB irradiance and relative biological impact on a number of constituents in Earth's atmosphere that are variable over long and short time periods. We consider changes in O3 column density, and SO2 and sulfate aerosols due to periods of volcanic activity, including that associated with the formation of the Siberian Traps. We find that UVB irradiance may be highly variable under volcanic conditions and variations in several of these atmospheric constituents can easily mimic or overwhelm changes in UVB irradiance due to changes in altitude. On the other hand, we find that relative change with altitude is not very sensitive to different sets of atmospheric conditions. Any paleoaltitude proxy based on UVB exposure requires confidence that the samples under comparison were located at roughly the same latitude, under very similar O3 and SO2 columns, with similar atmospheric aerosol conditions. In general, accurate estimates of the surface-level UVB exposure at any time and location require detailed radiative transfer modeling taking into account a number of atmospheric factors; this result is important for paleoaltitude proxies as well as attempts to reconstruct the UV environment through geologic time and to tie extinctions, such as the end-Permian mass extinction, to UVB irradiance changes.

Adaptive Data Gathering in Mobile Sensor Networks Using Speedy Mobile Elements

PubMed Central

Lai, Yongxuan; Xie, Jinshan; Lin, Ziyu; Wang, Tian; Liao, Minghong

2015-01-01

Data gathering is a key operator for applications in wireless sensor networks; yet it is also a challenging problem in mobile sensor networks when considering that all nodes are mobile and the communications among them are opportunistic. This paper proposes an efficient data gathering scheme called ADG that adopts speedy mobile elements as the mobile data collector and takes advantage of the movement patterns of the network. ADG first extracts the network meta-data at initial epochs, and calculates a set of proxy nodes based on the meta-data. Data gathering is then mapped into the Proxy node Time Slot Allocation (PTSA) problem that schedules the time slots and orders, according to which the data collector could gather the maximal amount of data within a limited period. Finally, the collector follows the schedule and picks up the sensed data from the proxy nodes through one hop of message transmissions. ADG learns the period when nodes are relatively stationary, so that the collector is able to pick up the data from them during the limited data gathering period. Moreover, proxy nodes and data gathering points could also be timely updated so that the collector could adapt to the change of node movements. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed scheme outperforms other data gathering schemes on the cost of message transmissions and the data gathering rate, especially under the constraint of limited data gathering period. PMID:26389903

Variations in productivity and eolian fluxes in the northeastern Arabian Sea during the past 110 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, Ali; Marcantonio, Franco; Schulz, Hartmut

2004-04-01

High-resolution (one to two samples/ka) radionuclide proxy records from core 93KL in the northeastern Arabian Sea provide evidence for millennial climate variability over the past 110 ka. We interpret 230Th-normalized 232Th fluxes as a proxy for eolian input, and authigenic uranium concentrations as a proxy for past productivity. We attribute orbital and suborbital variations in both proxies to changes in the intensity of the southwest Indian Ocean monsoon. The highest 230Th-normalized 232Th fluxes occur at times that are consistent with the timing of the Younger Dryas, Heinrich events 1-7 and cold Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial events recorded in the GISP2 ice core. Such high dust fluxes may be due to a weakened southwest monsoon in conjunction with strengthened northwesterlies from the Arabian Peninsula and Mesopotamia. Authigenic uranium concentrations, on the other hand, are highest during warm Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials when the southwest monsoon is intensified relative to the northwesterly winds. Our results also indicate that on orbital timescales maximum average eolian fluxes coincide with the timing of marine isotopic stage (MIS) 2 and 4, while minimum fluxes occur during MIS 1, 3 and 5. Although the forcing mechanism(s) controlling suborbital variabilities in monsoonal intensity is still debated, our findings suggest an atmospheric teleconnection between the low-latitude southwest monsoon and North Atlantic climate.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

PubMed

Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas; Kushnir, Yochanan; Black, David; Lohmann, Gerrit; Burnett, Allison; Haug, Gerald H; Estrella-Martínez, Juan; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Beaufort, Luc; Rubino, Angelo; Cheng, Hai

2015-07-14

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Temporal variation in pelagic food chain length in response to environmental change

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Cooley, Rocio I.; Gerrodette, Tim; Fiedler, Paul C.; Chivers, Susan J.; Danil, Kerri; Ballance, Lisa T.

2017-01-01

Climate variability alters nitrogen cycling, primary productivity, and dissolved oxygen concentration in marine ecosystems. We examined the role of this variability (as measured by six variables) on food chain length (FCL) in the California Current (CC) by reconstructing a time series of amino acid–specific δ15N values derived from common dolphins, an apex pelagic predator, and using two FCL proxies. Strong declines in FCL were observed after the 1997–1999 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Bayesian models revealed longer FCLs under intermediate conditions for surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, multivariate ENSO index, and total plankton volume but not for hypoxic depth and nitrate concentration. Our results challenge the prevalent paradigm that suggested long-term stability in the food web structure in the CC and, instead, reveal that pelagic food webs respond strongly to disturbances associated with ENSO events, local oceanography, and ongoing changes in climate. PMID:29057322

Climate, Waterborne Disease, and Public Health in Eastern Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tirrell, Andrew

2013-04-01

As global temperatures rise, waterborne diseases have expanded their ranges northward. Exposure to new diseases is especially threatening to isolated communities, whose remote locations and lack of health resources and infrastructure leave them particularly vulnerable. For this project, a time series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability, and waterborne infectious diseases in several Siberian communities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings and offer appropriate policy recommendations. One of our policy aims will be to identify easily measured water quality indicators that may serve as useful proxies for environmental health in rural, especially indigenous, communities.

High particle export over the continental shelf of the west Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buesseler, Ken O.; McDonnell, Andrew M. P.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ducklow, Hugh W.

2010-11-01

Drifting cylindrical traps and the flux proxy 234Th indicate more than an order of magnitude higher sinking fluxes of particulate carbon and 234Th in January 2009 than measured by a time-series conical trap used regularly on the shelf of the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The higher fluxes measured in this study have several implications for our understanding of the WAP ecosystem. Larger sinking fluxes result in a revised export efficiency of at least 10% (C flux/net primary production) and a requisite lower regeneration efficiency in surface waters. High fluxes also result in a large supply of sinking organic matter to support subsurface and benthic food webs on the continental shelf. These new findings call into question the magnitude of seasonal and interannual variability in particle flux and reaffirm the difficulty of using moored conical traps as a quantitative flux collector in shallow waters.

Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Gray, Stephen T.; Meko, David M.

2006-01-01

Updated proxy reconstructions of water year (October–September) streamflow for four key gauges in the Upper Colorado River Basin were generated using an expanded tree ring network and longer calibration records than in previous efforts. Reconstructed gauges include the Green River at Green River, Utah; Colorado near Cisco, Utah; San Juan near Bluff, Utah; and Colorado at Lees Ferry, Arizona. The reconstructions explain 72–81% of the variance in the gauge records, and results are robust across several reconstruction approaches. Time series plots as well as results of cross‐spectral analysis indicate strong spatial coherence in runoff variations across the subbasins. The Lees Ferry reconstruction suggests a higher long‐term mean than previous reconstructions but strongly supports earlier findings that Colorado River allocations were based on one of the wettest periods in the past 5 centuries and that droughts more severe than any 20th to 21st century event occurred in the past.

Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Gray, Stephen T.; Meko, David M.

2006-05-01

Updated proxy reconstructions of water year (October-September) streamflow for four key gauges in the Upper Colorado River Basin were generated using an expanded tree ring network and longer calibration records than in previous efforts. Reconstructed gauges include the Green River at Green River, Utah; Colorado near Cisco, Utah; San Juan near Bluff, Utah; and Colorado at Lees Ferry, Arizona. The reconstructions explain 72-81% of the variance in the gauge records, and results are robust across several reconstruction approaches. Time series plots as well as results of cross-spectral analysis indicate strong spatial coherence in runoff variations across the subbasins. The Lees Ferry reconstruction suggests a higher long-term mean than previous reconstructions but strongly supports earlier findings that Colorado River allocations were based on one of the wettest periods in the past 5 centuries and that droughts more severe than any 20th to 21st century event occurred in the past.

Validation of a proxy for estrogen receptor status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data.

PubMed

Srasuebkul, Preeyaporn; Dobbins, Timothy A; Pearson, Sallie-Anne

2014-06-01

To assess the performance of a proxy for estrogen receptor (ER) status in breast cancer patients using dispensing data. We derived our proxy using 167 patients. ER+ patients had evidence of at least one dispensing record for hormone therapy during the lookback period, irrespective of diagnosis date and ER- had no dispensing records for hormone therapy during the period. We validated the proxy against our gold standard, ER status from pathology reports or medical records. We assessed the proxy's performance using three lookback periods: 4.5 years, 2 years, 1 year. More than half of our cohort (62%) were >50 years, 54% had stage III/IV breast cancer at recruitment, (46%) were diagnosed with breast cancer in 2009 and 23% were diagnosed before 2006. Sensitivity and specificity were high for the 4.5 year lookback period (93%, 95% CI: 86-96%; and 95%: 83-99%), respectively) and remained high for the 2-year lookback period (91%: 84-95%; and 95%: 83-99%). Sensitivity decreased (83%: 75.2-89%) but specificity remained high (95%: 83-99%) using the 1-year lookback period and the period is long enough to allow sufficient time for hormone therapy to be dispensed. Our proxy accurately infers ER status in studies of breast cancer treatment based on secondary health data. The proxy is most robust with a minimum lookback period of 2 years. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

High-resolution multi-proxy reconstruction of Lake Ighiel (Western Carpathians, Romania): processes and controlling factors of lacustrine dynamics during the mid and late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haliuc, Aritina; Veres, Daniel; Hubay, Katalin; Begy, Robert; Brauer, Achim; Hutchinson, Simon; Braun, Mihaly

2016-04-01

Concerns about current and prospective environmental change have increased the interest in past climate variability and its impact on the bio-hydro-atmosphere and human society. Acting as high-resolution terrestrial archives, lacustrine sediments are the result of the complex interaction between internal and external forcing and an important tool in efforts to resolve questions related to the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions of the recent past. Here we discuss a new, high-resolution sedimentary record from the Romanian Carpathians (central-eastern Europe). Lake Ighiel (46° 10'50"N, 23° 22'00"E) is a small lake located in a mid-altitude mountain belt (Trascau Mountains) at an altitude of 924 m ( lake maximum depth 9 m; catchment area 487 ha). We employ detailed 210Pb and 14C dating coupled with high-resolution X-ray fluorescence scanning (μ-XRF) measurements, long-core sedimentary logging, environmental magnetic proxies (susceptibility, natural and induced remanences) in an attempt to trace the 6000 years evolution of lake-catchment system. More specifically, we discuss: i) the temporal evolution of the main sedimentation phases of the lake based on sedimentological, geochemical and magnetic proxies; ii) the amplitude and interplay of processes (natural and/or anthropogenic) controlling the depositional environment through time; iii) assess the contribution of each controlling factors and reconstruct the evolution of lacustrine system and palaeoclimate forcing using multivariate statistics. The sedimentary record can be divided into six phases based on alternating high and low detrital fluxes, oscillating lacustrine productivity and redox conditions. A series of detrital events (5200; 4800; 5400; 5250; 4500; 4050; 3800; 3500; 3250; 3050; 2650; 2350; 2250; 1400; 1100; 500; 100 cal yr BP) were identified by microfacies analyses and X-ray fluorescence scanning (μ-XRF) analysis. These events are reflected in most of the parameters and appear synchronous with climatically induced forcing such as increased regional precipitation and decreased total solar radiation. These changes are superimposed on clear anthropogenic derived contributions reflecting natural and mineral resource exploitation during the early metal ages, the Roman and Medieval periods, as well as during the recent period. The comparison of the our proxies with similarly resolved records from central-eastern Europe highlight the potential of Lake Ighiel as a record of palaeoclimatic and palaeohydrological conditions in a region still lacking high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental archives. The authors acknowledge financial support from project PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0530 "Millennial-scale geochemical records of anthropogenic impact and natural climate change in the Romanian Carpathians", contract nr. 15/02.09.2013.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) - A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-09-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7-8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2-4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1-2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-01-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

CONDOM USE AT LAST SEX AS A PROXY FOR OTHER MEASURES OF CONDOM USE: IS IT GOOD ENOUGH?

PubMed Central

Younge, Sinead N.; Salazar, Laura F.; Crosby, Richard F.; DiClemente, Richard J.; Wingood, Gina M.; Rose, Eve

2009-01-01

Condom use at last sex is a widely used indicator in sexual behavior research; however, there is little empirical research validating this indicator. This study examined whether a single-event recall period (the last time coitus occurred) was consistent with longer recall periods (14 days and 60 days) for a sample of African American adolescent females (N = 566). The findings from this study demonstrate that condom use at last coitus is a valid proxy for condom use behaviors spanning longer time periods. PMID:19149154

Long-term variability of supratidal coastal boulder activation in Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autret, Ronan; Dodet, Guillaume; Suanez, Serge; Roudaut, Gildas; Fichaut, Bernard

2018-03-01

High-energy supratidal coastal boulder deposit (SCBD) dynamics were investigated on Vierge Island and Pors Carn Point, north and south of western Brittany, France, respectively. Morphological changes induced by boulder transport and quarrying were quantified using high-resolution topographic survey data taken between 2012 and 2017. Additional in-situ wave parameters and water levels were also recorded over this period (2014-2017) in order to compute the maximum water levels and assess the relationship between SCBD morphological changes and specific hydrodynamic conditions. During extreme water levels (for maximum water levels exceeding a one in ten year event), SCBDs were broadly reworked (up to 40% of the total volume). During lower intensity events, for which maximum water levels were still very high, morphological changes represented 1% to 5% of the total volume. These morphological and hydrodynamic observations were then used to calibrate a chronology of SCBD activation events based on 70 years of hindcast winter maximum water levels. These long-term time-series showed great interannual variability in SCBD activation but no significant long-term trend. Winter-frequency SCBD activation was better correlated to the WEPA index (r = 0.46) than the NAO index (r = 0.1). Therefore, the WEPA index can be considered to be a more significant climate proxy for assessing storm-related geomorphic changes in the temperate latitudes of the N-E Atlantic basin (36°-52° N), including the Brittany coast. The potential of SCBDs as a morphological storm proxy for macrotidal high-energy rocky coasts is addressed.

Polar synchrony and the climatic history of Antarctica deduced from Greenland's

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, J.; Rial, J. A.; Reischmann, E.

2012-12-01

Polar synchronization brings new insights into the dynamic processes that link Greenland's Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) abrupt temperature fluctuations to Antarctic temperature variability. The term synchronization as used here describes how two or more coupled nonlinear oscillators adjust their (initially different) natural rhythms to a common frequency and constant relative phase. It is shown that, consistent with the presence of polar synchronization, the time series of the most representative abrupt climate events of the last glaciation recorded in Greenland and Antarctica can be transformed into one another by a pi/2 phase shift at millennial scale, with Antarctica temperature variations leading Greenland's. For this study we employ Van der Pol Synchronizing Oscillators model to simulate Antarctic temperature proxy based on the synchronized relationship between two poles for the last 800ky after removing ~100ky glaciation cycles. The separated long period (~100ky) signal is reproduced by frequency modulation. As separation techniques, Singular Spectrum Analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition are adopted and decomposed long period signals are compared with them from linear filter. It is shown that remarkable close simulations of Antarctic temperature proxy are obtained with a model consisting of a few nonlinear differential equations especially when coupling terms have strong effects. This, plus the close reproduction of glaciation cycles by frequency modulation suggests the intriguing possibility that there are simple rules governing the complex behavior of global paleoclimate such as heat and mass transfer through the intervening ocean and atmosphere.

A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, Jessica R.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Cronin, Thomas M.; Jones, Miriam C.; Thompson, Robert S.; Wahl, David B.; Willard, Debra A.; Addison, Jason A.; Alder, Jay R.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Anderson, Lysanna; Barron, John A.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Khan, Nicole S.; Richey, Julie N.; Starratt, Scott W.; Strickland, Laura E.; Toomey, Michael R.; Treat, Claire C.; Wingard, G. Lynn

2018-03-01

This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.

A climate and environmental context for hominid evolution: Preliminary biomarker and compound specific isotope data from Lake Magadi, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werne, J. P.; Ferland, T.; Cohen, A. S.; Lowenstein, T. K.; Deocampo, D.; Renaut, R.; Bernhart, O. R.

2016-12-01

The Hominid Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) seeks to understand the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental context of human evolution and development by analysis of paleolacustrine cores taken near key hominin fossil and artifact localities in Kenya and Ethiopia. Here, we present biomarker and compound specific isotope data from a 200 m drill core from Lake Magadi, Kenya. Located 20 km from the Koora Plain in the southern Kenya Rift, and adjacent to the Olorgesailie basin, Lake Magadi is in one of the richest Early-Late Pleistocene archaeological localities in Africa, a region that has been key in debates about the relationship between climate and evolution. Preliminary biomarker work has shown promising abundances of leaf waxes, whose isotopic compositions of hydrogen and carbon are commonly used as proxies for paleoprecipitation and watershed vegetation composition, respectively. A complementary record of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which can serve as a proxy for temperature, soil input, and/or pH, will be presented alongside the leaf wax data to enhance the paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Lake Magadi. Present-day Lake Magadi is a saline pan, a descendant of a series of paleolakes that have occupied its drainage basin for approximately one million years. Hominid evolution milestones such as the mastering of fire as a tool, rapid encephalization, and the emergence of Homo sapiens all are thought to have occurred in the time frame encompassed by our record.

Improving Polar Motion Predictions Using AAM χ1 and χ2 Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratcliff, J. T.; Gross, R. S.

2017-12-01

The uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's changing orientation in space is a majorsource of error in tracking and navigating interplanetary spacecraft. Because the Earth'sorientation changes rapidly and unpredictably, measurements must be acquired frequentlyand processed rapidly in order to meet the near-real-time Earth orientation requirements ofthe interplanetary spacecraft navigation teams. The Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF)is used to combine GPS polar motion and LOD measurements, Very Long Baseline Interferometry(VLBI) polar motion and UT measurements, along with other publicly available Earth orientationmeasurements including proxy measurements such as atmospheric angular momentum (AAM),in order to generate and deliver the required polar motion and UT1 Earth orientation parametersto the spacecraft navigation teams. Short-term predictions of the EOPs are produced in order toprovide the navigation teams with an uninterrupted series of Earth orientation parameters. WhileAAM 𝜒3 forecasts are used as a proxy LOD forecast to improve UT1 predictions, Polar Motionpredictions had not been similarly treated. In order to evaluate the effectiveness off AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2forecasts on improving Polar Motion predictions we reprocessed one year (Jan.-Dec. 2015) of EOP measurementsto include the 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 components of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)AAM daily 5-day forecasts. Inclusion of AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 forecasts into EOP predictions was foundto improve the accuracy of the Polar Motion 5-day predictions by 33% in the X-component and 34% in the Y-component.

The perpetrators of medical child abuse (Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy) - A systematic review of 796 cases.

PubMed

Yates, Gregory; Bass, Christopher

2017-10-01

Little is known about the perpetrators of medical child abuse (MCA) which is often described as "Munchausen's syndrome by proxy" or "factitious disorder imposed on another". The demographic and clinical characteristics of these abusers have yet to be described in a sufficiently large sample. We aimed to address this issue through a systematic review of case reports and series in the professional literature. A systematic search for case reports and series published since 1965 was undertaken using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. 4100 database records were screened. A supplementary search was then conducted using GoogleScholar and reference lists of eligible studies. Our search yielded a total sample of 796 perpetrators: 309 from case reports and 487 from case series. Information extracted included demographic and clinical characteristics, in addition to methods of abuse and case outcomes. Nearly all abusers were female (97.6%) and the victim's mother (95.6%). Most were married (75.8%). Mean caretaker age at the child's presentation was 27.6 years. Perpetrators were frequently reported to be in healthcare-related professions (45.6%), to have had obstetric complications (23.5%), or to have histories of childhood maltreatment (30%). The most common psychiatric diagnoses recorded were factitious disorder imposed on self (30.9%), personality disorder (18.6%), and depression (14.2%). From the largest analysis of MCA perpetrators to date, we provide several clinical recommendations. In particular, we urge clinicians to consider mothers with a personal history of childhood maltreatment, obstetric complications, and/or factitious disorder at heightened risk for MCA. Longitudinal studies are required to establish the true prognostic value of these factors as our method may have been vulnerable to publication bias. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

AN ASSESSMENT OF SUNSPOT NUMBER DATA COMPOSITES OVER 1845–2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.

2016-06-10

New sunspot data composites, some of which are radically different in the character of their long-term variation, are evaluated over the interval 1845–2014. The method commonly used to calibrate historic sunspot data, relative to modern-day data, is “daisy-chaining,” whereby calibration is passed from one data subset to the neighboring one, usually using regressions of the data subsets for the intervals of their overlap. Recent studies have illustrated serious pitfalls in these regressions, and the resulting errors can be compounded by their repeated use as the data sequence is extended back in time. Hence, the recent composite data series by Usoskinmore » et al., R {sub UEA}, is a very important advance because it avoids regressions, daisy-chaining, and other common, but invalid, assumptions: this is achieved by comparing the statistics of “active-day” fractions to those for a single reference data set. We study six sunspot data series, including R {sub UEA} and the new “backbone” data series ( R {sub BB}, recently generated by Svalgaard and Schatten by employing both regression and daisy-chaining). We show that all six can be used with a continuity model to reproduce the main features of the open solar flux variation for 1845–2014, as reconstructed from geomagnetic activity data. However, some differences can be identified that are consistent with tests using a basket of other proxies for solar magnetic fields. Using data from a variety of sunspot observers, we illustrate problems with the method employed in generating R {sub BB} that cause it to increasingly overestimate sunspot numbers going back in time, and we recommend using R {sub UEA} because it employs more robust procedures that avoid such problems.« less

Predicting Geomorphic and Hydrologic Risks after Wildfire Using Harmonic and Stochastic Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that often alters hydrological processes and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Vegetation loss from wildfires induce changes to sediment supply such as channel erosion and sedimentation and streamflow magnitude or flooding. These changes enhance downstream hazards, threatening human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using Williams Canyon, a basin burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) as a case study, we utilize deterministic and statistical modeling methods (Fourier series and first order Markov chain) to assess pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, including of precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, a satellite-based proxy of vegetation biomass), streamflow, and sediment flux. Local precipitation, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning, and satellite-based products are used for these time series analyses. We present a framework to assess variability of periodic and nonperiodic climatic and multivariate trends to inform development of a post-wildfire risk assessment methodology. To establish the extent to which a wildfire affects hydrologic and geomorphic patterns, a Fourier series was used to fit pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics to yearly temporal cycles and subcycles of 6, 4, 3, and 2.4 months. These cycles were analyzed using least-squares estimates of the harmonic coefficients or amplitudes of each sub-cycle's contribution to fit the overall behavior of a Fourier series. The stochastic variances of these characteristics were analyzed by composing first-order Markov models and probabilistic analysis through direct likelihood estimates. Preliminary results highlight an increased dependence of monthly post-fire hydrologic characteristics on 12 and 6-month temporal cycles. This statistical and probabilistic analysis provides a basis to determine the impact of wildfires on the temporal dependence of geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, which can be incorporated into post-fire mitigation, management, and recovery-based measures to protect and rehabilitate areas subject to influence from wildfires.

Bridging long proxy data time series and instrumental observation in the Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses - ICLEA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Markus J.; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin

2015-04-01

Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (i) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (ii) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. The GFZ, Greifswald University and the Brandenburg University of Technology together with their partner the Polish Academy of Sciences strive for focusing their research capacities and expertise in ICLEA. ICLEA offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Postdoctoral rotation positions at the ICLEA partner institutions ensure mobility of young researchers and promote dissemination of information and expertise between disciplines. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of the ICLEA virtual institute are another important measure to qualify young researchers. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. In ICLEA five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects. WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 focus on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments cover the entire research time interval at seasonal to decadal resolution and palaeosoils and geomorphological features also cover the entire period but not continuously and with lower resolution. Complementary information, like climate, tree ecophysiological and limnological data etc., are provided by cooperation with associated partners. Further information about ICLEA: www.iclea.de

Testing the potential of 10Be in varved sediments from two lakes for solar activity reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, Markus; Muscheler, Raimund; Brauer, Achim; Adolphi, Florian; Ott, Florian; Kienel, Ulrike; Dräger, Nadine; Slowinski, Michal; Aldahan, Ala; Possnert, Göran

2015-04-01

The potential of 10Be in annually laminated (varved) lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction is, to date, largely unexplored. It is hypothesized that 10Be contents in sediments from well-chosen lakes reflect the solar induced atmospheric production signal. The varved nature of these archives provides the chance to establish solar activity time-series with very high temporal precision. However, so far solar activity reconstruction from 10Be in varved lake sediments is hampered due to a lack of detailed knowledge of the process chain from production in the atmosphere to deposition on the lake floor. Calibrating 10Be time-series from varved lake sediments against complementary proxy records from the same sediment archive as well as instrumental meteorological and solar activity data will allow a process-based understanding of 10Be deposition in these lakes and a quantitative evaluation of their potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Be concentration and flux time-series at annual resolution were constructed for the period 1983 to 2007 (approx. solar cycles 22 and 23) conducting accelerator mass spectrometry and varve chronology on varved sediments of Lakes Tiefer See and Czechowski, located on an east-west transect at a distance of about 450 km in the lowlands of northern-central Europe. 10Be concentrations vary between 0.9 and 1.8*108atoms/g, with a mean of 1.3*108atoms/g in Lake Tiefer See and between 0.6 and 1.6*108atoms/g, with a mean of 1*108atoms/g in Lake Czechowski. Calculated mean 10Be flux is 2.3*108atoms/cm2/year for Lake Tiefer See and 0.7*108atoms/cm2/year for Lake Czechowski. Calibrating the 10Be time-series against corresponding geochemical μ-XRF profiles, varve thickness and total organic carbon records as well as precipitation data from the nearby stations Schwerin for Lake Tiefer See and Koscierzyna for Lake Czechowski and a neutron monitor record of solar activity suggests (1) a complex interaction of varying processes influencing 10Be deposition in both lakes and (2) that neither 10Be concentrations nor fluxes are the most suitable indicator of solar variability alone. Multiple regression analyses indicate that the combined 10Be concentration and flux time-series account for about 80% (Tiefer See) and 40% (Lake Czechowski) of the variability in the neutron monitor record, sufficient to reconstruct variability related to the 11-year solar cycle.

Analysis of trend changes in Northern African palaeo-climate by using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütz, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2010-05-01

Climate variability of Northern Africa is of high interest due to climate-evolutionary linkages under study. The reconstruction of the palaeo-climate over long time scales, including the expected linkages (> 3 Ma), is mainly accessible by proxy data from deep sea drilling cores. By concentrating on published data sets, we try to decipher rhythms and trends to detect correlations between different proxy time series by advanced mathematical methods. Our preliminary data is dust concentration, as an indicator for climatic changes such as humidity, from the ODP sites 659, 721 and 967 situated around Northern Africa. Our interest is in challenging the available time series with advanced statistical methods to detect significant trend changes and to compare different model assumptions. For that purpose, we want to avoid the rescaling of the time axis to obtain equidistant time steps for filtering methods. Additionally we demand an plausible description of the errors for the estimated parameters, in terms of confidence intervals. Finally, depending on what model we restrict on, we also want an insight in the parameter structure of the assumed models. To gain this information, we focus on Bayesian inference by formulating the problem as a linear mixed model, so that the expectation and deviation are of linear structure. By using the Bayesian method we can formulate the posteriori density as a function of the model parameters and calculate this probability density in the parameter space. Depending which parameters are of interest, we analytically and numerically marginalize the posteriori with respect to the remaining parameters of less interest. We apply a simple linear mixed model to calculate the posteriori densities of the ODP sites 659 and 721 concerning the last 5 Ma at maximum. From preliminary calculations on these data sets, we can confirm results gained by the method of breakfit regression combined with block bootstrapping ([1]). We obtain a significant change point around (1.63 - 1.82) Ma, which correlates with a global climate transition due to the establishment of the Walker circulation ([2]). Furthermore we detect another significant change point around (2.7 - 3.2) Ma, which correlates with the end of the Pliocene warm period (permanent El Niño-like conditions) and the onset of a colder global climate ([3], [4]). The discussion on the algorithm, the results of calculated confidence intervals, the available information about the applied model in the parameter space and the comparison of multiple change point models will be presented. [1] Trauth, M.H., et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 2009 [2] Wara, M.W., et al., Science, Vol. 309, 2005 [3] Chiang, J.C.H., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 37, 2009 [4] deMenocal, P., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 220, 2004

Insider Threat Control: Using Plagiarism Detection Algorithms to Prevent Data Exfiltration in Near Real Time

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

Threats: Tools and Techniques 2 2.1 The Man-in-The-Middle ( MiTM ) Proxy 2 2.2 The Inspection Process 2 3 Installing WebDLPIndexer 4 3.1 Install JDK SE...selected open source and public-domain tools since they are freely available to the public. 2.1 The Man-in-The-Middle ( MiTM ) Proxy This report builds

High-resolution Atmospheric pCO2 Reconstruction across the Paleogene Using Marine and Terrestrial δ13C records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Schubert, B.

2016-02-01

The early Paleogene (63 to 47 Ma) is considered to have a greenhouse climate1 with proxies suggesting atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) approximately 2× pre-industrial levels. However, the proxy based pCO2 reconstructions are limited and do not allow for assessment of changes in pCO2 at million to sub-million year time scales. It has recently been recognized that changes in C3 land plant carbon isotope fractionation can be used as a proxy for pCO2 with quantifiable uncertainty2. Here, we present a high-resolution pCO2 reconstruction (n = 597) across the early Paleogene using published carbon isotope data from both terrestrial organic matter and marine carbonates. The minimum and maximum pCO2 values reconstructed using this method are broad (i.e., 170 +60/-40 ppmv to 2000 +4480/-1060 ppmv) and reflective of the wide range of environments sampled. However, the large number of measurements allows for a robust estimate of average pCO2 during this time interval ( 400 +260/-120 ppmv), and indicates brief (sub-million-year) excursions to very high pCO2 during hyperthermal events (e.g., the PETM). By binning our high-resolution pCO2 data at 1 million year intervals, we can compare our dataset to the other available pCO2 proxies. Our result is broadly consistent with pCO2 levels reconstructed using other proxies, with the exception of paleosol-based pCO2 estimates spanning 53 to 50 Ma. At this timescale, no proxy suggests pCO2 higher than 2000 ppmv, whereas the global surface ocean temperature is considered to be >10 oC warmer than today. Recent climate modeling suggests that low atmospheric pressure during this time period could help reconcile the apparent disconnect between pCO2 and temperature and contribute to the greenhouse climate3. References1. Huber, M., Caballero, R., 2011. Climate of the Past 7, 603-633. 2. Schubert, B.A., Jahren, A.H., 2015. Geology 43, 435-438. 3. Poulsen, C.J., Tabor, C., White, J.D., 2015. Science 348, 1238-1241.

Applicability of the site fundamental frequency as a VS30 proxy for Central and Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassani, B.; Atkinson, G. M.

2015-12-01

One of the most important issues in developing accurate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is the effective use of limited regional site information in developing a site effects model. In modern empirical GMPE models site effects are usually characterized by simplified parameters that describe the overall near-surface effects on input ground-motion shaking. The most common site effects parameter is the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m (VS30), which has been used in the Next Generation Attenuation-West (NGA-West) and NGA-East GMPEs, and is widely used in building code applications. For the NGA-East GMPE database, only 6% of the stations have measured VS30 values, while the rest have proxy-based VS30 values. Proxy-based VS30 values are derived from a weighted average of different proxies' estimates such as topographic slope and surface geology proxies. For the proxy-based approaches, the uncertainty in the estimation of Vs30 is significantly higher (~0.25, log10 units) than that for stations with measured VS30(0.04, log10 units); this translates into error in site amplification and hence increased ground motion variability. We introduce a new VS30 proxy as a function of the site fundamental frequency (fpeak) using the NGA-East database, and show that fpeak is a particularly effective proxy for sites in central and eastern North America We first use horizontal to vertical spectra ratios (H/V) of 5%-damped pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA) to find the fpeak values for the recording stations. We develop an fpeak-based VS30 proxy by correlating the measured VS30 values with the corresponding fpeak value. The uncertainty of the VS30 estimate using the fpeak-based model is much lower (0.14, log10 units) than that for the proxy-based methods used in the NGA-East database (0.25 log10 units). The results of this study can be used to recalculate the VS30 values more accurately for stations with known fpeak values (23% of the stations), and potentially reduce the overall variability of the developed NGA-East GMPE models.

Groundwater Change in Storage Estimation by Using Monitoring Wells Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, C. I.

2016-12-01

In present times, remarkable attention is being given to models and data in hydrology, regarding their role in meeting water management requirements to enable well-informed decisions. Water management under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is currently challenging, due to it requires that groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) formulate groundwater sustainability plans (GSPs) to comply with new regulations and perform a responsible management to secure California's groundwater resources, particularly when droughts and climate change conditions are present. In this scenario, water budgets and change in groundwater storage estimations are key components for decision makers, but their computation is often difficult, lengthy and uncertain. Therefore, this work presents an innovative approach to integrate hydrologic modeling and available groundwater data into a single simplified tool, a proxy function, that estimate in real time the change in storage based on monitoring wells data. A hydrologic model was developed and calibrated for water years 1970 to 2015, the Yolo County IWFM, which was applied to generate the proxy as a study case, by regressing simulated change in storage versus change in head for the cities of Davis and Woodland area, and obtain a linear function dependent on heads variations over time. Later, the proxy was applied to actual groundwater data in this region to predict the change in storage. Results from this work provide proxy functions to approximate change in storage based on monitoring data for daily, monthly and yearly frameworks, being as well easily transferable to any spreadsheet or database to perform simply yet crucial computations in real time for sustainable groundwater management.

Pre-aged plant waxes in tropical lake sediments and their influence on the chronology of molecular paleoclimate proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Peter M. J.; Pagani, Mark; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Brenner, Mark; Hodell, David A.; Curtis, Jason H.; Ma, Keith F.; Breckenridge, Andy

2014-09-01

Sedimentary records of plant-wax hydrogen (δDwax) and carbon (δ13Cwax) stable isotopes are increasingly applied to infer past climate change. Compound-specific radiocarbon analyses, however, indicate that long time lags can occur between the synthesis of plant waxes and their subsequent deposition in marginal marine sediments. The influence of these time lags on interpretations of plant-wax stable isotope records is presently unconstrained, and it is unclear whether such time lags also affect lacustrine sediments. We present compound-specific radiocarbon (14Cwax) data for n-alkanoic acid plant waxes (n-C26 to n-C32) from: (1) a sediment core from Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, (2) soils in the Lake Chichancanab catchment, and (3) surface sediments from three other lakes in southeastern Mexico and northern Guatemala. 14Cwax ages in the surface sediments are consistently older than modern, and may be negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation and positively correlated with lake catchment area. 14Cwax ages in soils surrounding Lake Chichancanab increase with soil depth, consistent with deep, subsoil horizons being the primary source of lacustrine aged plant waxes, which are likely delivered to lake sediments through subsurface transport. Plant waxes in the Lake Chichancanab core are 350-1200 years older than corresponding ages of bulk sediment deposition, determined by 14C dates on terrestrial plant macrofossils in the core. A δDwax time series is in closer agreement with other regional proxy hydroclimate records when a plant-wax 14C age model is applied, as opposed to the macrofossil-based core chronology. Inverse modeling of plant-wax age distribution parameters suggests that plant waxes in the Lake Chichancanab sediment core derive predominantly from millennial-age soil carbon pools that exhibit relatively little age variance (<200 years). Our findings demonstrate that high-temporal-resolution climate records inferred from stable isotope measures on plant waxes in lacustrine sediments may suffer from possible chronologic distortions as a consequence of long residence times of plant waxes in soils. They also underscore the importance of direct radiocarbon dating of these organic molecules.

Dry or wet in East Asia during North Atlantic cooling? New perspectives from multiproxy climate records and coupled model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Griffiths, M. L.; Wu, S.; Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Atwood, A. R.; Cheng, H.; Huang, J.; Xie, S.

2017-12-01

Chinese speleothem δ18Oc records have revealed that the Asian summer monsoon underwent pronounced millennial-scale variability during the last deglaciation, yet there is still debate as to what the δ18Oc signals represent. Traditionally, these δ18Oc records were interpreted as a proxy for regional rainfall variability via the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), however, recent isotope-enabled model simulations have suggested that precipitation δ18O over central China is more a reflection of rainfall in the upstream region of the Indian monsoon. Therefore, despite the increased number of speleothem records emerging from the EASM region, we still lack a robust understanding of how local monsoon rainfall variability fluctuated in central China during the last deglaciation. To address this, here we present two new multiproxy speleothem records from Haozhu Cave (HZ), central China, during the deglaciation. HZ δ18Oc time series largely parallel those from other distal cave sites in China and India, suggesting that the oxygen isotopes are indeed dominated by upstream rainout. To inspect the local hydrology, we also examined Sr-Mg-Ba/Ca ratios and d13C. Interestingly, results show that during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, the d13C and trace elements decrease significantly, which we interpret to reflect higher cave recharge. Thus, despite a weakened Indian monsoon during these cooling events (inferred from the δ18Oc), our results suggest that central China was in fact wetter. To test this hypothesis, we examined past rainfall variability in China using CESM1.0.5 imposed with 1Sv of North Atlantic (NA) fresh water forcing. Similar to the proxies, results from these simulations demonstrate that south-central China was wetter following NA cooling, whilst northern China was drier. This `dipole' pattern can best be explained by a seasonally-lagged onset of the mei-yu stage of monsoon evolution. A later onset of mei-yu to midsummer during NA cooling would have resulted in a shorter midsummer stage, leaving south-central China wet at the expense of dry conditions to the north. Our proxy and model results thus support a recent hypothesis, that paleoclimate changes over East Asia reflect the timing and duration of its intraseasonal stages, modulated by the position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau.

Expanding the Territory of Historical Reconstruction: The Study of Frequency and Severity of Hail Storms, Based on 19th and 20th-Century Records from Swiss Insurance Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauelshagen, F.

2009-09-01

Switzerland lies almost in the centre of a zone of high frequency of hail storm occurrence, often causing costly damage to agriculture, motor vehicles, the built environment and - consequentially - to insurance companies. Over the last ten years hailstorms and the resulting damage have been discussed, with some noticeable frequency, in the context of recent climate change. The final report of the Swiss National Research Programme No. 31: "Climate Change and Natural Disasters” (NFP 31: Klimaänderung und Naturkatastrophen) concludes that "the number of days with agricultural hail damage has increased”. This can be demonstrated from time series of days with severe hail occurrence in Switzerland between 1920 and 2005. Radar observations provide evidence for a doubling of severe hailstorms (on a scale >100 km) within the twenty-year period 1983 to 2003. More recent large-scale damage resulted from hailstorms on 24 June 2002 (causing damage of approx. 250 million CHF on insured risks) and 8 July 2004 (causing loss of 100 mill. on car insurance alone). 2007 was particularly disastrous for crop insurance. The latest OcCC-report on Klimaänderung und die Schweiz 2050 ("Climate Change and Switzerland, 2050”) concludes that peasants, house owners, and insurers should prepare for more extreme hailstorms to come if the frequency of synoptic weather situations favouring hailstorms develops along the trend of the last two decades. However, the same report argues that hailstorms can hardly be simulated by existing climate models, because hail occurrence is a local phenomenon. In other words, existing models of global warming cannot predict the effect global change is likely to have on hailstorm patterns (frequency, severity etc.), which is partly due to the limits of existing time series on hailstorm occurrence. For hail, the instrumental period doesn't begin before the 1950s. As early as 1954, Meteo-Swiss meteorologist M. Bider stated that insurance data were more reliable than observations from the existing network of meteorological offices. Some researchers have even suggested that the entire period before radar observation, beginning in the 1980s, should be classified as pre-instrumental. However, it is undoubted that documents kept in the archives of insurance companies provide valuable proxy information on hail storm occurrence for, at least, the pre-1950-period (well back into the 19th century). This paper discusses key problems in dealing with these proxy data (reliability, interpretation and density of records), as well as methodologies that may lead to extend existing time series on hail storm occurrence in Switzerland. As a consequence, this paper suggests that, for some meteorological phenomena, the field of reconstruction from documentary archival sources must be extended well up into the 20th century, which cannot simply and statically be categorized as "instrumental period”.

Late Cretaceous climate simulations with different CO2 levels and subarctic gateway configurations: A model-data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgodzki, Igor; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit; Tyszka, Jarosław; Markwick, Paul J.

2017-09-01

We investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low- (high-) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model-data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy-data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (< 1°C) on a global scale, with higher values (up to 8°C) on a regional scale. These findings imply that modeled and reconstructed temperature gradients are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, providing challenges for the interpretation of proxy data and/or model sensitivity. With respect to the latter, our results suggest that an assessment of greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes.

Comment on "Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?" by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, Shlomo P.

2016-07-01

Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two "proxy" non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two- and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that "i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii. … the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting." I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.

Are all temperate lakes eutrophying in a warmer world?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paltsev, A.; Creed, I. F.

2017-12-01

Freshwater lakes are at risk of eutrophication due to climate change and intensification of human activities on the planet. In relatively undisturbed areas of the temperate forest biome, lakes are "sentinels" of the effects of rising temperatures. We hypothesise that rising temperatures are driving a shift from nutrient-poor oligotrophic states to nutrient-rich eutrophic states. To test this hypothesis, we examined a time series of satellite based chlorophyll-a (a proxy of algal biomass) of 12,000+ lakes over 30 years in the Canadian portion of the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. From the time series, non-stationary trends (detected by Mann-Kendall analysis) and stationary cycles (revealed through Morlet wavelet analysis) were removed, and the standard deviation (SD) of the remaining residuals was used as an indicator of lake stability. Four classes of lake stability were identified: (1) stable (SD is consistently low); (2) destabilizing (SD increases over time); (3) unstable (SD is consistently high); and (4) stabilizing lakes (SD decreases over time). Stable lakes were either oligotrophic or eutrophic indicating the presence of two stable states in the region. Destabilizing lakes were shifting from oligotrophic to lakes with a higher trophic status (indicating eutrophication), unstable lakes were mostly mesotrophic, and stabilizing lakes were shifting from eutrophic to the lakes with lower trophic status (indicating oligotrophication). In contrast to common expectations, while many lakes (2142) were shifting from oligotrophic to eutrophic states, more lakes (3199) were showing the opposite trend and shifting from eutrophic to oligotrophic states. This finding reveals a complexity of lake responses to rising temperatures and the need to improve understanding of why some lakes shift while others do not. Future work is focused on exploring the interactive effects of global, regional, and local drivers of lake trophic states.

Impact of pharmaceutical policy interventions on utilization of antipsychotic medicines in Finland and Portugal in times of economic recession: interrupted time series analyses

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objectives To analyze the impacts of pharmaceutical sector policies implemented to contain country spending during the economic recession – a reference price system in Finland and a mix of policies including changes in reimbursement rates, a generic promotion campaign and discounts granted to the public payer in Portugal – on utilization of, as a proxy for access to, antipsychotic medicines. Methodology We obtained monthly IMS Health sales data in standard units of antipsychotic medicines in Portugal and Finland for the period January 2007 to December 2011. We used an interrupted time series design to estimate changes in overall use and generic market shares by comparing pre-policy and post-policy levels and trends. Results Both countries’ policy approaches were associated with slight, likely unintended, decreases in overall use of antipsychotic medicines and with increases in generic market shares of major antipsychotic products. In Finland, quetiapine and risperidone generic market shares increased substantially (estimates one year post-policy compared to before, quetiapine: 6.80% [3.92%, 9.68%]; risperidone: 11.13% [6.79%, 15.48%]. The policy interventions in Portugal resulted in a substantially increased generic market share for amisulpride (estimate one year post-policy compared to before: 22.95% [21.01%, 24.90%]; generic risperidone already dominated the market prior to the policy interventions. Conclusions Different policy approaches to contain pharmaceutical expenditures in times of the economic recession in Finland and Portugal had intended – increased use of generics – and likely unintended – slightly decreased overall sales, possibly consistent with decreased access to needed medicines – impacts. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and evaluating the effects of pharmaceutical policy interventions on use of medicines and health outcomes. PMID:25062657

Impact of pharmaceutical policy interventions on utilization of antipsychotic medicines in Finland and Portugal in times of economic recession: interrupted time series analyses.

PubMed

Leopold, Christine; Zhang, Fang; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K; Vogler, Sabine; Valkova, Silvia; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Wagner, Anita K

2014-07-25

To analyze the impacts of pharmaceutical sector policies implemented to contain country spending during the economic recession--a reference price system in Finland and a mix of policies including changes in reimbursement rates, a generic promotion campaign and discounts granted to the public payer in Portugal - on utilization of, as a proxy for access to, antipsychotic medicines. We obtained monthly IMS Health sales data in standard units of antipsychotic medicines in Portugal and Finland for the period January 2007 to December 2011. We used an interrupted time series design to estimate changes in overall use and generic market shares by comparing pre-policy and post-policy levels and trends. Both countries' policy approaches were associated with slight, likely unintended, decreases in overall use of antipsychotic medicines and with increases in generic market shares of major antipsychotic products. In Finland, quetiapine and risperidone generic market shares increased substantially (estimates one year post-policy compared to before, quetiapine: 6.80% [3.92%, 9.68%]; risperidone: 11.13% [6.79%, 15.48%]. The policy interventions in Portugal resulted in a substantially increased generic market share for amisulpride (estimate one year post-policy compared to before: 22.95% [21.01%, 24.90%]; generic risperidone already dominated the market prior to the policy interventions. Different policy approaches to contain pharmaceutical expenditures in times of the economic recession in Finland and Portugal had intended--increased use of generics--and likely unintended--slightly decreased overall sales, possibly consistent with decreased access to needed medicines--impacts. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and evaluating the effects of pharmaceutical policy interventions on use of medicines and health outcomes.

Molecular Features of Dissolved Organic Matter Produced by Picophytoplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Coleman, M.; Waldbauer, J.

2016-02-01

Compounds derived from picophytoplankton through exudation, grazing and viral lysis contribute a large proportion of labile DOM to the ocean. This labile DOM is rapidly turned over by and exchanged among microbial communities. However, identifying labile DOM compounds and tracking their sources and sinks in ocean ecosystems is complicated by the presence of non-labile DOM which has a significantly larger reservoir size and longer residence time. This study focuses on investigating labile DOM produced by single-strain cyanobacteria isolates via different modes of release and varied nutrient conditions. DOM compounds are analyzed by high-resolution mass spectrometry. Statistical comparison between intracellular and extracellular molecular data of Synechococcus WH7803 revealed noticeable differences in terms of compound number, size and structure. Incubation experiments using combined whole seawater and diluent of grazer-free or viral-free water at the BATS time-series station in Sargasso Sea yielded complimentary data to be synthesized with data from lab cultures. The compositional features of each type of DOM could serve as future proxies for different modes of DOM production in the oceans.

Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Junghans, Christoph; Pavel, Robert

The Synthetic Proxy Infrastructure for Task Evaluation is a proxy application designed to support application developers in gauging the performance of various task granularities when determining how best to utilize task based programming models.The infrastructure is designed to provide examples of common communication patterns with a synthetic workload intended to provide performance data to evaluate programming model and platform overheads for the purpose of determining task granularity for task decomposition purposes. This is presented as a reference implementation of a proxy application with run-time configurable input and output task dependencies ranging from an embarrassingly parallel scenario to patterns with stencil-likemore » dependencies upon their nearest neighbors. Once all, if any, inputs are satisfied each task will execute a synthetic workload (a simple DGEMM of in this case) of varying size and output all, if any, outputs to the next tasks.The intent is for this reference implementation to be implemented as a proxy app in different programming models so as to provide the same infrastructure and to allow for application developers to simulate their own communication needs to assist in task decomposition under various models on a given platform.« less

North Atlantic Oscillation dynamics recorded in shells of a long-lived bivalve mollusk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, Bernd R.; Oschmann, Wolfgang; Rössler, Jochen; Freyre Castro, Antuané D.; Houk, Stephen D.; Kröncke, Ingrid; Dreyer, Wolfgang; Janssen, Ronald; Rumohr, Heye; Dunca, Elena

2003-12-01

Existing reconstructions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (WNAO) are based on terrestrial proxies and historical documents. No direct high-resolution, long-term rec ords from marine settings are available for this major climate-dictating phenomenon, which severely affects a variety of economic aspects of our society. Here we present a 245 yr proxy WNAO index based on shells of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. Variations in annual rates of shell growth are positively correlated with WNAO-related changes in the food supply. Maximum amplitudes in frequency bands of 7 9 and 5 7 yr fall exactly within the range of instrumental and other proxy WNAO indices. These estimates were obtained for specimens collected live, 2000 km apart, in the central North Sea and on the Norwegian Shelf. Hence, the WNAO influences hydrographic regimes of large regions of the ocean. Our study demonstrates that A. islandica can reliably reconstruct WNAO dynamics for time intervals and regions without instrumental records. Our new tool functions as a proxy for the WNAO index prior to the twentieth-century greenhouse forcing and has the potential to further validate other proxy-based WNAO records.

JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolgast, Paul; Pechkam, Paul

2007-01-01

JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK (JMS signifies "Java messaging service" and "SDK" signifies "software development kit") is a software package for developing interfaces that enable legacy programs (here denoted "clients") written in the C and C++ languages to communicate with each other via a JMS broker. This package consists of two main components: the JMS proxy server component and the client C library SDK component. The JMS proxy server component implements a native Java process that receives and responds to requests from clients. This component can run on any computer that supports Java and a JMS client. The client C library SDK component is used to develop a JMS client program running in each affected C or C++ environment, without need for running a Java virtual machine in the affected computer. A C client program developed by use of this SDK has most of the quality-of-service characteristics of standard Java-based client programs, including the following: Durable subscriptions; Asynchronous message receipt; Such standard JMS message qualities as "TimeToLive," "Message Properties," and "DeliveryMode" (as the quoted terms are defined in previously published JMS documentation); and Automatic reconnection of a JMS proxy to a restarted JMS broker.

Quantum Proxy Multi-Signature Scheme Using Genuinely Entangled Six Qubits State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Wang, Huai-Sheng; Li, Peng-Fei

2013-04-01

A quantum proxy multi-signature scheme is presented based on controlled teleportation. Genuinely entangled six qubits quantum state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Quantum key distribution and one-time pad are adopted in our scheme, which could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

Effects of categorization method, regression type, and variable distribution on the inflation of Type-I error rate when categorizing a confounding variable.

PubMed

Barnwell-Ménard, Jean-Louis; Li, Qing; Cohen, Alan A

2015-03-15

The loss of signal associated with categorizing a continuous variable is well known, and previous studies have demonstrated that this can lead to an inflation of Type-I error when the categorized variable is a confounder in a regression analysis estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, it is not known how the Type-I error may vary under different circumstances, including logistic versus linear regression, different distributions of the confounder, and different categorization methods. Here, we analytically quantified the effect of categorization and then performed a series of 9600 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the Type-I error inflation associated with categorization of a confounder under different regression scenarios. We show that Type-I error is unacceptably high (>10% in most scenarios and often 100%). The only exception was when the variable categorized was a continuous mixture proxy for a genuinely dichotomous latent variable, where both the continuous proxy and the categorized variable are error-ridden proxies for the dichotomous latent variable. As expected, error inflation was also higher with larger sample size, fewer categories, and stronger associations between the confounder and the exposure or outcome. We provide online tools that can help researchers estimate the potential error inflation and understand how serious a problem this is. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Material migration studies with an ITER first wall panel proxy on EAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, R.; Pitts, R. A.; Borodin, D.; Carpentier, S.; Ding, F.; Gong, X. Z.; Guo, H. Y.; Kirschner, A.; Kocan, M.; Li, J. G.; Luo, G.-N.; Mao, H. M.; Qian, J. P.; Stangeby, P. C.; Wampler, W. R.; Wang, H. Q.; Wang, W. Z.

2015-02-01

The ITER beryllium (Be) first wall (FW) panels are shaped to protect leading edges between neighbouring panels arising from assembly tolerances. This departure from a perfectly cylindrical surface automatically leads to magnetically shadowed regions where eroded Be can be re-deposited, together with co-deposition of tritium fuel. To provide a benchmark for a series of erosion/re-deposition simulation studies performed for the ITER FW panels, dedicated experiments have been performed on the EAST tokamak using a specially designed, instrumented test limiter acting as a proxy for the FW panel geometry. Carbon coated molybdenum plates forming the limiter front surface were exposed to the outer midplane boundary plasma of helium discharges using the new Material and Plasma Evaluation System (MAPES). Net erosion and deposition patterns are estimated using ion beam analysis to measure the carbon layer thickness variation across the surface after exposure. The highest erosion of about 0.8 µm is found near the midplane, where the surface is closest to the plasma separatrix. No net deposition above the measurement detection limit was found on the proxy wall element, even in shadowed regions. The measured 2D surface erosion distribution has been modelled with the 3D Monte Carlo code ERO, using the local plasma parameter measurements together with a diffusive transport assumption. Excellent agreement between the experimentally observed net erosion and the modelled erosion profile has been obtained.

Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, Ricky

2018-06-01

The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5–9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude ~12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun’s are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted to a relatively narrow range of rotation rates.

Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, Ricky

2017-04-01

The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5-9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude 12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun's are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted to a relatively narrow range of rotation rates.

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

2011-01-01

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

Paleosol Proxies for Low Elevation Paleoclimate East of the Andes, Northwestern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosario, J. J.; Jordan, T. E.; Garzione, C. N.; Higgins, P.; Hernandez, R.; Hernandez, J.

2009-12-01

Paleosols can be used as a proxy for paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and geomorphological reconstructions. The weathering imprint in the minerals in paleosols can be used as a proxy for moisture conditions, while other environmental information can be obtained from stable isotopes in their minerals such as δ13C and δ18O. The goal of this study is to document changes in paleosol characteristics’ driven by climate change in NW Argentina over the time period between ~14 Ma and 5.1 Ma during a time of significant uplift and climate change in the Altiplano. During this time interval, landscape of the low elevation foreland basin changed as the consequence of the propagation of Andean thrust-fold deformation. Paleosols are interbedded in three stratigraphic sections that are described, sampled, and studied along the Iruya, Peña Colorada, and La Porcelana rivers, distributed from west to east, respectively. Field observations of the paleosols, stratigraphic column construction, thin section petrography and textures, x-ray diffraction (XRD), and stable isotopes together provide climatic proxies. These The stratigraphic columns represent a distributary depositional system, or megafan, whose syn-deformational nature is documented by Echevarría et al. (2003). Argillic-calcic paleosols developed on silty and sandy mudstones in the floodplain environment, with pedogenic calcium carbonate formed as nodules and rizoliths. The Microscopic features show that paleosols on the floodplain contain argillans. Semi-humid to semi-arid conditions are suggested by clay lessivage and calcium carbonate precipitation respectively. The mineralogy reflected by the XRD shows kaolinite, illite, and calcium carbonate in the western stratigraphic column that represents moderate climatic conditions (semi-humid to semi-arid). The coexistence of these minerals suggests seasonal variations in moisture. The eastern columns exhibit wetter soil conditions, including oxide minerals as well as hematite and goethite. Carbon isotopes show C3 vegetation with an increase in δ13C values most likely resulting from increasing seasonality in more recent times. There is little variation in δ18O values through time. In conclusion, these proxies show that soils were developed on interchannel areas, with illuviation of clays during the wet season and precipitation of calcium carbonate during the dry season. Although the megafan migrated eastward and the Altiplano rose, oxygen isotopes suggest that neither rainfall amount nor source of water vapor changed through the approximately 10 million years time interval.

Does climate have heavy tails?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermejo, Miguel; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

When we speak about a distribution with heavy tails, we are referring to the probability of the existence of extreme values will be relatively large. Several heavy-tail models are constructed from Poisson processes, which are the most tractable models. Among such processes, one of the most important are the Lévy processes, which are those process with independent, stationary increments and stochastic continuity. If the random component of a climate process that generates the data exhibits a heavy-tail distribution, and if that fact is ignored by assuming a finite-variance distribution, then there would be serious consequences (in the form, e.g., of bias) for the analysis of extreme values. Yet, it appears that it is an open question to what extent and degree climate data exhibit heavy-tail phenomena. We present a study about the statistical inference in the presence of heavy-tail distribution. In particular, we explore (1) the estimation of tail index of the marginal distribution using several estimation techniques (e.g., Hill estimator, Pickands estimator) and (2) the power of hypothesis tests. The performance of the different methods are compared using artificial time-series by means of Monte Carlo experiments. We systematically apply the heavy tail inference to observed climate data, in particular we focus on time series data. We study several proxy and directly observed climate variables from the instrumental period, the Holocene and the Pleistocene. This work receives financial support from the European Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th Framework Programme).

Emerging Use of Dual Channel Infrared for Remote Sensing of Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, N. S.; Serreze, M. C.; Gallaher, D. W.; Koenig, L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Campbell, G. G.; Thompson, J. A.; Grant, G.; Fetterer, F. M.

2017-12-01

Using GOES-16 data as a proxy for overhead persistent infrared, we examine the feasibility of using a dual channel shortwave / midwave infrared (SWIR/MWIR) approach to detect and chart sea ice in Hudson Bay through a series of images with a temporal scale of less than fifteen minutes. While not traditionally exploited for sea ice remote sensing, the availability of near continuous shortwave and midwave infrared data streams over the Arctic from overhead persistent infrared (OPIR) satellites could provide an invaluable source of information regarding the changing Arctic climate. Traditionally used for the purpose of missile warning and strategic defense, characteristics of OPIR make it an attractive source for Arctic remote sensing as the temporal resolution can provide insight into ice edge melt and motion processes. Fundamentally, the time series based algorithm will discern water/ice/clouds using a SWIR/MWIR normalized difference index. Cloud filtering is accomplished through removing pixels categorized as clouds while retaining a cache of previous ice/water pixels to replace any cloud obscured (and therefore omitted) pixels. Demonstration of the sensitivity of GOES-16 SWIR/MWIR to detect and discern water/ice/clouds provides a justification for exploring the utility of military OPIR sensors for civil and commercial applications. Potential users include the scientific community as well as emergency responders, the fishing industry, oil and gas industries, and transportation industries that are seeking to exploit changing conditions in the Arctic but require more accurate and timely ice charting products.

Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCall, R.T.; Van Theil de Vries, J. S. M.; Plant, N.G.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Roelvink, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Reniers, A.J.H.M.

2010-01-01

A 2DH numerical, model which is capable of computing nearshore circulation and morphodynamics, including dune erosion, breaching and overwash, is used to simulate overwash caused by Hurricane Ivan (2004) on a barrier island. The model is forced using parametric wave and surge time series based on field data and large-scale numerical model results. The model predicted beach face and dune erosion reasonably well as well as the development of washover fans. Furthermore, the model demonstrated considerable quantitative skill (upwards of 66% of variance explained, maximum bias - 0.21 m) in hindcasting the post-storm shape and elevation of the subaerial barrier island when a sheet flow sediment transport limiter was applied. The prediction skill ranged between 0.66 and 0.77 in a series of sensitivity tests in which several hydraulic forcing parameters were varied. The sensitivity studies showed that the variations in the incident wave height and wave period affected the entire simulated island morphology while variations in the surge level gradient between the ocean and back barrier bay affected the amount of deposition on the back barrier and in the back barrier bay. The model sensitivity to the sheet flow sediment transport limiter, which served as a proxy for unknown factors controlling the resistance to erosion, was significantly greater than the sensitivity to the hydraulic forcing parameters. If no limiter was applied the simulated morphological response of the barrier island was an order of magnitude greater than the measured morphological response.

Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

2015-04-01

Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

Family factors in end-of-life decision-making: family conflict and proxy relationship.

PubMed

Parks, Susan Mockus; Winter, Laraine; Santana, Abbie J; Parker, Barbara; Diamond, James J; Rose, Molly; Myers, Ronald E

2011-02-01

Few studies have examined proxy decision-making regarding end-of-life treatment decisions. Proxy accuracy is defined as whether proxy treatment choices are consistent with the expressed wishes of their index elder. The purpose of this study was to examine proxy accuracy in relation to two family factors that may influence proxy accuracy: perceived family conflict and type of elder-proxy relationship. Telephone interviews with 202 community-dwelling elders and their proxy decision makers were conducted including the Life-Support Preferences Questionnaire (LSPQ), and a measure of family conflict, and sociodemographic characteristics, including type of relationship. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with the type of elder-proxy relationship. Adult children demonstrated the lowest elder-proxy accuracy and spousal proxies the highest elder-proxy accuracy. Elder-proxy accuracy was associated with family conflict. Proxies reporting higher family conflict had lower elder-proxy accuracy. No interaction between family conflict and relationship type was revealed. Spousal proxies were more accurate in their substituted judgment than adult children, and proxies who perceive higher degree of family conflict tended to be less accurate than those with lower family conflict. Health care providers should be aware of these family factors when discussing advance care planning.

Nitrogen isotopes from terrestrial organic matter as a new paleoclimatic proxy for pre-quaternary time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramoy, romain; Schnyder, johann; thuy Nguyen Tu, thanh; Yans, johan; Storme, jean yves; Sebilo, mathieu; Derenne, sylvie; Jacob, jérémy; Baudin, françois

2014-05-01

Marine and lacustrine sedimentary organic matter is often dominated by algal-bacterial production. Its nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15Norg) is frequently used to reconstruct biogeochemical processes involved in the nitrogen cycle, such as N utilization by organisms (e.g. Altabet et al., 1995), denitrification and diagenesis processes (e.g. Altabet et al., 1995; Sebilo et al., 2003; Gälman et al., 2009) or to evidence N sources variability (e.g. Hodell and Schelske, 1998; Vreca and Muri, 2006) . However, all these parameters and processes make N isotopic signals in marine and lacustrine environments often very complex to interpret. After pioneer studies, Mariotti et al. (1981), Austin and Vitousek (1998), Amundson et al. (2003), Swap et al. (2004), and Liu and Wang (2008) have shown that the δ15Norg of modern or quaternary terrestrial plants seem to be positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with precipitations. Therefore, δ15Norg of terrestrial OM might be a better record for paleoclimatic studies than δ15Norg of sedimentary OM dominated by algal-bacterial production. Recently, promising organic nitrogen isotopic data (δ15Norg) have been published on lignites from the Dieppe-Hampshire Basin (Paleocene-Eocene transition, Normandy (Storme et al., 2012). Authors suggest that the δ15Norg recorded local paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Following these results, the aim of this work is to test the use of stable nitrogen isotopes in terrestrial OM as a new paleoclimatic marker for pre-quaternary geological series. Does δ15Norg constitute a valuable tool to reconstruct past climates? What are the limits in the use of this proxy and possible methodological bias related to organic sources or diagenetic processes? To address these questions, δ15Norg must be measured in samples from periods associated with large and well documented climate change. We therefore selected a Liassic continental sedimentary succession from Taskomirsay, Kazakhstan. This succession is rich in dispersed OM and wood fragments allowing accurate N isotopes measurements. Preliminary results on δ13Corg and palynology suggest that the Pliensbachian/Toarcian transition is recorded at the top of the sedimentary succession. This transition has been studied for a long time since it is characterized by one of the most important global environmental and climatic change of the Phanerozoic time ( Jenkyns, 1988; Hermoso et al., 2012). We are therefore testing the paleoclimatic "proxy" potential of δ15Norg for this time interval by comparing the δ15Norg signal with other indicators more classically used for paleoclimate studies. We have also investigated the influence of differences in organic sources and of early diagenesis on the δ15Norg variations.

The magnesium isotope record of cave carbonate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riechelmann, S.; Buhl, D.; Schröder-Ritzrau, A.; Riechelmann, D. F. C.; Richter, D. K.; Vonhof, H. B.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Geske, A.; Spötl, C.; Immenhauser, A.

2012-05-01

Here we explore the potential of time-series magnesium (δ26Mg) isotope data as continental climate proxies in speleothem calcite archives. For this purpose, a total of six Pleistocene and Holocene stalagmites from caves in Germany, Morocco and Peru and two flowstones from a cave in Austria were investigated. These caves represent the semi-arid to arid (Morocco), the warm-temperate (Germany), the equatorial-humid (Peru) and the cold-humid (Austria) climate zones. Changes in the calcite magnesium isotope signature with time are placed against carbon and oxygen isotope records from these speleothems. Similar to other proxies, the non-trivial interaction of a number of environmental, equilibrium and non-equilibrium processes governs the δ26Mg fractionation in continental settings. These include the different sources of magnesium isotopes such as rain water or snow as well as soil and hostrock, soil zone biogenic activity, shifts in silicate versus carbonate weathering ratios and residence time of water in the soil and karst zone. Pleistocene stalagmites from Morocco show the lowest mean δ26Mg values (GDA: -4.26 ± 0.07 ‰ and HK3: -4.17 ± 0.15 ‰) and the data are well explained in terms of changes in aridity over time. The Pleistocene to Holocene stalagmites from Peru show the highest mean value (NC-A and NC-B δ26Mg: -3.96 ± 0.04 ‰) but only minor variations in Mg-isotope composition, which is in concert with the rather stable equatorial climate at this site. Holocene stalagmites from Germany (AH-1 mean δ26Mg: -4.01 ± 0.07 ‰; BU 4 mean δ26Mg: -4.20 ± 0.10 ‰) record changes in outside air temperature as driving factor rather than rainfall amount. The alpine Pleistocene flowstones from Austria (SPA 52: -3.00 ± 0.73 ‰; SPA 59: -3.70 ± 0.43 ‰) are affected by glacial versus interglacial climate change with outside air temperature affecting soil zone activity and weathering balance. Several data points in the Austrian and two data points in the German speleothems are shifted to higher values due to sampling in detrital layers (Mg-bearing clay minerals) of the speleothems. The data and their interpretation shown here highlight the potential but also the limitations of the magnesium isotope proxy applied in continental climate research. An obvious potential lies in its sensitivity for even subtle changes in soil-zone parameters, a hitherto rather poorly understood but extremely important component in cave archive research. Limitations are most obvious in the low resolution and high sample amount needed for analysis. Future research should focus on experimental and conceptual aspects including quantitative and well calibrated leaching and precipitation experiments.

The magnesium isotope record of cave carbonate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riechelmann, S.; Buhl, D.; Schröder-Ritzrau, A.; Riechelmann, D. F. C.; Richter, D. K.; Vonhof, H. B.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Geske, A.; Spötl, C.; Immenhauser, A.

2012-11-01

Here we explore the potential of magnesium (δ26Mg) isotope time-series data as continental climate proxies in speleothem calcite archives. For this purpose, a total of six Pleistocene and Holocene stalagmites from caves in Germany, Morocco and Peru and two flowstones from a cave in Austria were investigated. These caves represent the semi-arid to arid (Morocco), the warm-temperate (Germany), the equatorial-humid (Peru) and the cold-humid (Austria) climate zones. Changes in the calcite magnesium isotope signature with time are compared against carbon and oxygen isotope records from these speleothems. Similar to other proxies, the non-trivial interaction of a number of environmental, equilibrium and disequilibrium processes governs the δ26Mg fractionation in continental settings. These include the different sources of magnesium isotopes such as rainwater or snow as well as soil and host rock, soil zone biogenic activity, shifts in silicate versus carbonate weathering ratios and residence time of water in the soil and karst zone. Pleistocene stalagmites from Morocco show the lowest mean δ26Mg values (GDA: -4.26 ± 0.07‰ and HK3: -4.17 ± 0.15‰), and the data are well explained in terms of changes in aridity over time. The Pleistocene to Holocene stalagmites from Peru show the highest mean value of all stalagmites (NC-A and NC-B δ26Mg: -3.96 ± 0.04‰) but only minor variations in Mg-isotope composition, which is consistent with the rather stable equatorial climate at this site. Holocene stalagmites from Germany (AH-1 mean δ26Mg: -4.01 ± 0.07‰; BU 4 mean δ26Mg: -4.20 ± 0.10‰) suggest changes in outside air temperature was the principal driver rather than rainfall amount. The alpine Pleistocene flowstones from Austria (SPA 52: -3.00 ± 0.73‰; SPA 59: -3.70 ± 0.43‰) are affected by glacial versus interglacial climate change with outside air temperature affecting soil zone activity and weathering balance. Several δ26Mg values of the Austrian and two δ26Mg values of the German speleothems are shifted to higher values due to sampling in detrital layers (Mg-bearing clay minerals) of the speleothems. The data and their interpretation shown here highlight the potential but also the limitations of the magnesium isotope proxy applied in continental climate research. An obvious potential lies in its sensitivity for even subtle changes in soil-zone parameters, a hitherto rather poorly understood but extremely important component in cave archive research. Limitations are most obvious in the low resolution and high sample amount needed for analysis. Future research should focus on experimental and conceptual aspects including quantitative and well-calibrated leaching and precipitation experiments.

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Pickering, Steven J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; McClymont, Erin L.; Prescott, Caroline L.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Hill, Daniel J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pope, James O.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception.

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data–model comparison

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Pickering, Steven J.; Dowsett, Harry J.; McClymont, Erin L.; Prescott, Caroline L.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Hill, Daniel J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pope, James O.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

The characteristics of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma BP) have been examined using geological proxies and climate models. While there is agreement between models and data, details of regional climate differ. Uncertainties in prescribed forcings and in proxy data limit the utility of the interval to understand the dynamics of a warmer than present climate or evaluate models. This uncertainty comes, in part, from the reconstruction of a time slab rather than a time slice, where forcings required by climate models can be more adequately constrained. Here, we describe the rationale and approach for identifying a time slice(s) for Pliocene environmental reconstruction. A time slice centred on 3.205 Ma BP (3.204–3.207 Ma BP) has been identified as a priority for investigation. It is a warm interval characterized by a negative benthic oxygen isotope excursion (0.21–0.23‰) centred on marine isotope stage KM5c (KM5.3). It occurred during a period of orbital forcing that was very similar to present day. Climate model simulations indicate that proxy temperature estimates are unlikely to be significantly affected by orbital forcing for at least a precession cycle centred on the time slice, with the North Atlantic potentially being an important exception. PMID:24043865

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Relationship between physical performance and self-reported function in healthy individuals across the lifespan.

PubMed

Baldwin, Jennifer N; McKay, Marnee J; Hiller, Claire E; Moloney, Niamh; Nightingale, Elizabeth J; Burns, Joshua

2017-08-01

Functional outcome measures in clinical trials of musculoskeletal conditions need to be meaningful to individuals. To investigate the relationship between physical performance and self/proxy-reported function in 1000 healthy children and adults. Cross-sectional observational study (1000 Norms Project). One thousand males and females aged 3-101 years, healthy by self-report and without major physical disability, were recruited. Twelve performance-based tests were analysed: vertical and long jump, two hand dexterity tests, four balance tests, stepping reaction time, 30-second chair stand, timed up-and-down stairs, and six-minute walk. Self/proxy-reported function was assessed using the Infant-Toddler Quality of Life questionnaire, Child Health Questionnaire, Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL)-6D Adolescent, AQoL-8D, International Physical Activity Questionnaire and work ability question. Bivariate and multivariate correlational analyses were constructed for infants (3-4y), children (5-10y), adolescents (11-17y), adults (18-59y) and older adults (60+). Socio-demographic characteristics were similar to the Australian population. Among infants/children, greater jump and sit-to-stand performance correlated with higher proxy-reported function (p < 0.05). There were no significant relationships observed for adolescents (p > 0.05). Greater jump, dexterity, balance, reaction time, sit-to-stand, stair-climbing and six-minute walk performance correlated with higher self-reported function in adults (r = -0.097 to.231; p < 0.05) and older adults (r = -0.135 to 0.625; p < 0.05). Multivariate regression modelling revealed a collection of independent performance measures explaining up to 46% of the variance in self/proxy-reported function. Many performance-based tests were significantly associated with self/proxy-reported function. We have identified a set of physical measures which could form the basis of age-appropriate functional scales for clinical trials of musculoskeletal conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Local to Global Scale Time Series Analysis of US Dryland Degradation Using Landsat, AVHRR, and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Ramsey, R. D.; West, N. E.; Kulawardhana, W.; Reeves, M. C.; Mitchell, J. E.; Van Niel, T. G.

2011-12-01

Drylands cover 41% of the terrestrial land surface and annually generate $1 trillion in ecosystem goods and services for 38% of the global population, yet estimates of the global extent of Dryland degradation is uncertain with a range of 10 - 80%. It is currently understood that Drylands exhibit topological complexity including self-organization of parameters of different levels-of-organization, e.g., ecosystem and landscape parameters such as soil and vegetation pattern and structure, that gradually or discontinuously shift to multiple basins of attraction in response to herbivory, fire, and climatic drivers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Our research has shown that at large geographic scales, contemporaneous time series of 10 to 20 years for response and driving variables across two or more spatial scales is required to replicate and differentiate between the impact of climate and land use activities such as commercial grazing. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major driver of Dryland net primary productivity (NPP), biodiversity, and ecological resilience with a 10-year return interval, thus 20 years of data are required to replicate its impact. Degradation is defined here as a change in physiognomic composition contrary to management goals, a persistent reduction in vegetation response, e.g., NPP, accelerated soil erosion, a decline in soil quality, and changes in landscape configuration and structure that lead to a loss of ecosystem function. Freely available Landsat, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradimeter (MODIS) archives of satellite imagery exist that provide local to global spatial coverage and time series between 1972 to the present from which proxies of land degradation can be derived. This paper presents time series assessments between 1972 and 2011 of US Dryland degradation including early detection of dynamic regime shifts in the Mojave and landscape pattern and erosion state changes in the Intermountain region in response to the "Great North American Drought" in 1988, PDO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and commercial grazing. Additionally, we will show the discoveries in the last 10-years that US Drylands are "greening" despite the severe Southwestern drought and that commercial livestock are a driver of this response with an annual appropriation of some 58% of NPP.

The spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm as a real-time early warning proxy for detecting faecal pollution events at alpine karst water resources.

PubMed

Stadler, H; Klock, E; Skritek, P; Mach, R L; Zerobin, W; Farnleitner, A H

2010-01-01

Because spring water quality from alpine karst aquifers can change very rapidly during event situations, water abstraction management has to be performed in near real-time. Four summer events (2005-2008) at alpine karst springs were investigated in detail in order to evaluate the spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm (SAC254) as a real-time early warning proxy for faecal pollution. For the investigation Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) Satellite-based data communication between portable hydrometeorological measuring stations and an automated microbiological sampling device was used. The method for event triggered microbial sampling and analyzing was already established and described in a previous paper. Data analysis including on-line event characterisation (i.e. precipitation, discharge, turbidity, SAC254) and comprehensive E. coli determination (n>800) indicated that SAC254 is a useful early warning proxy. Irrespective of the studied event situations SAC254 always increased 3 to 6 hours earlier than the onset of faecal pollution, featuring different correlation phases. Furthermore, it seems also possible to use SAC254 as a real-time proxy parameter for estimating the extent of faecal pollution after establishing specific spring and event-type calibrations that take into consideration the variability of the occurrence and the transferability of faecal material It should be highlighted that diffuse faecal pollution from wildlife and live stock sources was responsible for spring water contamination at the investigated catchments. In this respect, the SAC254 can also provide useful information to support microbial source tracking efforts where different situations of infiltration have to be investigated.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Malay version of the parent-proxy Health-Related Quality of Life Measure for Children with Epilepsy (CHEQOL-25) in Malaysia.

PubMed

Wo, Su Woan; Lai, Pauline Siew Mei; Ong, Lai Choo; Low, Wah Yun; Lim, Kheng Seang; Tay, Chee Giap; Wong, Chee Piau; Ranjini, Sivanesom

2015-04-01

We aimed to cross-culturally adapt the parent-proxy Health-Related Quality of Life Measure for Children with Epilepsy (CHEQOL-25) into Malay and to determine its validity and reliability among parents of children with epilepsy in Malaysia. The English version of the parent-proxy CHEQOL-25 was translated according to international guidelines to Malay. Content validity was verified by an expert panel and piloted in five parents of children with epilepsy (CWE). The Malay parent-proxy CHEQOL-25 was then administered to 40 parents of CWE, aged 8-18years from two tertiary hospitals, at baseline and 2weeks later. Parents were also required to complete the Malay PedsQL™ 4.0 so that convergent validity could be assessed. Hypothesis testing was assessed by correlating the individual subscales in the parent-proxy CHEQOL-25 with epilepsy severity, the number of anticonvulsants, and the number of close friends. Participants from the pilot study did not encounter any problems in answering the final translated Malay parent-proxy CHEQOL-25. Hence, no further modifications were made. Cronbach's α for each subscale of the Malay parent-proxy CHEQOL-25 ranged from 0.67 to 0.83. The intraclass correlation coefficient for all items at test-retest ranged from 0.70 to 0.94. Both the CHEQOL-25 and the PedsQL™ 4.0 showed good correlation in the social and emotional subscales (r=0.598, p=0.002 and r=0.342, p=0.031, respectively). The severity of epilepsy, higher number of antiepileptic drug(s), poorer cognitive ability of the child, lower number of close friends, and lesser amount of time spent with friends were significantly associated with poorer health-related quality of life. The Malay parent-proxy CHEQOL-25 was found to be a valid and reliable instrument to assess parents' perceived HRQOL of their CWE in Malaysia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henke, L. M. K.; Lambert, F. H.; Charman, D. J.

2015-11-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere coupled oscillation over the equatorial Pacific, is the most important source of global climate variability on inter-annual time scales. It has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences such as devastation of South American fish populations and increased forest fires in Indonesia. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability, hence proxy data is used to extend the record. However, different proxy sources have produced varying reconstructions of ENSO, with some evidence for a temperature-precipitation divergence in ENSO trends over the past millennium, in particular during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using EOF-based weighting to create two new large-scale ENSO reconstructions derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies respectively. The method is developed and validated using pseudoproxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. The precipitation ENSO reconstruction displays a significantly more El Niño-like state during the LIA than the MCA, while the temperature reconstruction shows no significant difference. The trends shown in the precipitation ENSO reconstruction are relatively robust to variations in the precipitation EOF pattern. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers significantly from a lack of high-quality, favourably located proxy records, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records.

UV-visible absorbance spectroscopy as a proxy for peatland dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality: considerations on wavelength and absorbance degradation.

PubMed

Peacock, Mike; Evans, Chris D; Fenner, Nathalie; Freeman, Chris; Gough, Rachel; Jones, Timothy G; Lebron, Inma

2014-05-01

Absorbance in the UV or visible spectrum (UV-vis) is commonly used as a proxy for DOC concentrations in waters draining upland catchments. To determine the appropriateness of different UV-vis measurements we used surface and pore water samples from two Welsh peatlands in four different experiments: (i) an assessment of single wavelength proxies (1 nm increments between 230-800 nm) for DOC concentration demonstrated that 254 nm was more accurate than 400 nm. The highest R(2) values between absorbance and DOC concentration were generated using 263 nm for one sample set (R(2) = 0.91), and 230 nm for the other three sample sets (respective R(2) values of 0.86, 0.81, and 0.93). (ii) A comparison of different DOC concentration proxies, including single wavelength proxies, a two wavelength model, a proxy using phenolic concentration, and a proxy using the area under a UV spectrum at 250-350 nm. It was found that both a single wavelength proxy (≤263 nm) and a two wavelength model performed well for both pore water and surface water. (iii) An evaluation of the E2 : E3, E2 : E4, E4 : E6 ratios, and SUVA (absorbance at 254 nm normalised to DOC concentration) as indicators of DOC quality showed that the E4 : E6 ratio was subject to extensive variation over time, and was highly correlated between surface water and pore water, suggesting that it is a useful metric to determine temporal changes in DOC quality. (iv) A repeated weekly analysis over twelve weeks showed no consistent change in UV-vis absorbance, and therefore an inferred lack of degradation of total DOC in samples that were filtered and stored in the dark at 4 °C.

Patient-Proxy Agreement on the Health-Related Quality of Life One Year After Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Hwang, Hei-Fen; Chen, Chih-Yi; Lin, Mau-Roung

2017-12-01

To examine the level of agreement between patients and their proxies on a measure of health-related quality of life (HRQL) 1 year after traumatic brain injury (TBI). A cross-sectional study. Four hospitals in Taipei. Participants (N=176) were patients with TBI (n=88) identified from discharge records of 4 hospitals in Taiwan and family members or friends (n=88) who could answer questions regarding the patient's health and HRQL 1 year after the injury. Not applicable. A health profile of the brief Taiwanese version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF) and 2 health utility measures of the time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG). Compared with proxy responses, patients provided higher ratings on the domains of the WHOQOL-BREF and lower ratings on the TTO and SG. Intraclass correlation coefficients between patient and proxy ratings varied among the 4 domains of the WHOQOL-BREF, in which levels of agreement were moderate or good for physical capacity (.69) and low for psychological well-being (.45), social relationships (.24), and the environment (.32). Levels of agreement were extremely low for the TTO (0.0) and SG (.10). A profile analysis showed that patients' ratings on the WHOQOL-BREF, on average, were significantly greater than those of their proxies (mean difference, 3.07), with a similar distribution of scatter responses (mean difference, .002) and shape agreement (mean difference, .57). Greater variations in the patient-proxy level of agreement appeared in patients who were younger and had more severe injuries, and also with parent and child proxies. To assess the HRQL of patients with a TBI, the level of patient-proxy agreement was adequate for the physical domain but was lower for the social and environmental domains, and the agreement was very low for the TTO and SG. Furthermore, a patient's age and injury severity, and the patient-proxy' relationship may affect the agreement. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöppelmann, Guy; Pouvreau, Nicolas; Simon, Bernard

2006-12-01

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807 2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981 6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b).

Flood risk changes in Northeastern part of Iberian Peninsula: from impact data to flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Marcos, Raül; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

2014-05-01

The analysis of the temporal evolution of historical floods usually is based on proxy data obtained collecting flooding information from continuous records in municipal, ecclesiastic and private documentary sources. This kind of documentary series usually provide details of the damage caused by the flooding, with the exact date and duration, and in some occasions, some details on the behaviour of the rising water (duration, magnitude, indirect measurements), further details about the precipitation episode that gave rise to it, and the characteristics and dimensions of the riverbeds and the infrastructure associated with the watercourse (dams, bridges, mills, dykes). Based on this information, the first step is to estimate the flood impacts and, usually, in order to build flood data series, the event is classified following some criteria (i.e. catastrophic, extraordinary, ordinary). Exceptionally, some events are reconstructed and the maximum flow or level of the inundation is estimated. However, there are not so many studies that compare flow series and flood series obtained from proxy data. The interest of doing it is, not only to check the quality of the information and to compare the trend of both kind of series, but also to identify the role of other variables and their potential change in the flood risk evolution. Besides this, a potential relationship between the flood classification criteria and the flood frequency distribution obtained from flow data could be done. The contribution departs from the INUNGAMA database that contains 372 flood events recorded in Northeastern of Iberian Peninsula from 1900 to 2010 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007; Llasat et al, 2013); the PRESSGAMA database that includes more than 15,000 news related to natural hazards and climate change published between 1981 and 2010 and with detailed information for each flood event (Llasat et al, 2009) and the historical flood database with data since the 14th century for the rivers Ter, Llobregat and Segre (Llasat et al, 2005). Daily flow data for the rivers Muga (1971-2013), Ter (1912-2013) and Llobregat (1912-2013) has also been obtained from the Catalan Water Agency. Precipitation and temperature daily data has been provided by Spain-02 (Herrera et al 2012) for the period 1950-2008. First of all, the quality of all the series has been checked and a consistency analysis between them has been done. The correlation between rainfall and flow series has been studied for some specific catchments. Then, trend analysis of different series has been made by applying the Mann-Kendall method and a resampling method (Turco and Llasat, 2011), in order to identify decadal changes. Finally, a flood event has been selected as case study to illustrate the different factors that can be involved. This contribution has been supported by the DRIHM project.

Hydrological variability in the Northern Levant: a 250 ka multiproxy record from the Yammoûneh (Lebanon) sedimentary sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasse, F.; Vidal, L.; Develle, A.-L.; van Campo, E.

2011-11-01

The Levant is a key region in terms of both long-term hydroclimate dynamics and human cultural evolution. Our understanding of the regional response to glacial-interglacial boundary conditions is limited by uncertainties in proxy-data interpretation and the lack of long-term records from different geographical settings. The present paper provides a 250 ka paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on a multi-proxy approach from northern Levant, derived from a 36 m lacustrine-palustrine sequence cored in the small intra-mountainous karstic Yammoûneh basin from northern Lebanon. We combined time series of sediment properties, paleovegetation, and carbonate oxygen isotopes (δc), to yield a comprehensive view of paleohydrologic-paleoclimatic fluctuations in the basin over the two last glacial-interglacial cycles. Integration of all available proxies shows that Interglacial maxima (early-mid MIS 7, MIS 5.5 and early MIS 1) experienced relatively high effective moisture, evidenced by the dominance of forested landscapes (although with different forest types) associated with authigenic carbonate sedimentation in a productive waterbody. Synchronous and steep δc increases can be reconciled with enhanced mean annual moisture when changes in seasonality are taken into account. During Glacials periods (MIS 2 and MIS 6), open vegetation tends to replace the forests, favouring local erosion and detrital sedimentation. However, all proxy data reveal an overall wetting during MIS 6, while a drying trend took place during MIS4-2, leading to extremely harsh LGM conditions possibly linked to water storage as ice in the surrounding highlands. Over the past 250 ka, the Yammoûneh record shows an overall decrease in local effective water, coincident with a weakening of seasonal insolation contrasts linked to the decreasing amplitude of the eccentricity cycle. The Yammoûneh record is roughly consistent with long-term climatic fluctuations in the northeastern Mediterranean region (except during MIS 6). It suggests that the role of seasonality on effective moisture, already highlighted for MIS 1, also explains older interglacial climate. The Yammoûneh record shares some features with speleothem isotope records of western Israel, while the Dead Sea basin generally evolved in opposite directions. Changes in atmospheric circulation, regional topographic patterns and site-specific hydrological factors are invoked as potential causes of spatial heterogeneities. Further work is needed to refine the Yammoûneh chronology, better understand its functioning through hydrological and climate modelling, and acquire other long records from northern Levant to disentangle the relative effects of local versus regional factors.

Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

2017-12-01

Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments representative of the range of UK's hydro-climatic conditions. These forecasts were then benchmarked against the traditional ESP method. It is hoped that the results of this work will help the meteorological community to identify where to focus their efforts in order to increase the usefulness of their forecasts within hydrological forecasting systems.

Alkenone and boron-based Pliocene pCO 2 records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seki, Osamu; Foster, Gavin L.; Schmidt, Daniela N.; Mackensen, Andreas; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Pancost, Richard D.

2010-03-01

The Pliocene period is the most recent time when the Earth was globally significantly (˜ 3 °C) warmer than today. However, the existing pCO 2 data for the Pliocene are sparse and there is little agreement between the various techniques used to reconstruct palaeo- pCO 2. This disagreement, coupled with the general low temporal resolution of the published records, does not allow a robust assessment of the role of declining pCO 2 in the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (INHG) and a direct comparison to other proxy records are lacking. For the first time, we use a combination of foraminiferal ( δ11B) and organic biomarker (alkenone-derived carbon isotopes) proxies to determine the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 over the past 5 Ma. Both proxy records show that during the warm Pliocene pCO 2 was between 330 and 400 ppm, i.e. similar to today. The decrease to values similar to pre-industrial times (275-285 ppm) occurred between 3.2 Ma and 2.8 Ma — coincident with the INHG and affirming the link between global climate, the cryosphere and pCO 2.

Quantifying Proxy Influence in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, D. N.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

We examine the influence of proxies in the climate field reconstruction known as the Last Millennium Reanalysis (Hakim et al. 2016; JGR-A). This data assimilation framework uses the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an agnostic prior, proxies from the PAGES 2k Consortium (2017; Sci. Data), and an offline ensemble square-root filter for assimilation. Proxies are forward modeled using an observation model ("proxy system model") that maps from the prior space to the proxy space. We assess proxy impact using the method of Cardinali et al. (2004; QJRMS), where influence is measured in observation space; that is, at the location of observations. Influence is determined by three components: the prior at the location, the proxy at the location, and remote proxies as mediated by the spatial covariance information in the prior. Consequently, on a per-proxy basis, influence is higher for spatially isolated proxies having small error, and influence is lower for spatially dense proxies having large error. Results show that proxy influence depends strongly on the observation model. Assuming the proxies depend linearly on annual mean temperature yields the largest per-proxy influence for coral d18O and coral Sr/Ca records, and smallest influence for tree-ring width. On a global basis (summing over all proxies of a given type), tree-ring width and coral d18O have the largest influence. A seasonal model for the proxies yields very different results. In this case we model the proxies linearly on objectively determined seasonal temperature, except for tree proxies, which are fit to a bivariate model on seasonal temperature and precipitation. In this experiment, on a per-proxy basis, tree-ring density has by far the greatest influence. Total proxy influence is dominated by tree-ring width followed by tree-ring density. Compared to the results for the annual-mean observation model, the experiment where proxies are measured seasonally has more than double the total influence (sum over all proxies); this experiment also has higher verification scores when measured against other 20th century temperature reconstructions. These results underscore the importance of improving proxy system models, since they increase the amount of information available for data-assimilation-based reconstructions.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Terrestrial Evidence for Holocene Pluvials in Coastal Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, L.; Simms, A.; Rockwell, T. K.; Peters, R. B.

2016-12-01

In 1861 a series of large storms attributed to a prolonged atmospheric river event impacted the coast of California, inundated large regions of the state for weeks on end, stalled the government, and devastated the economy. A recent report by the USGS, the Arkstorm Report, predicted a similar sized event today could cost the state more than $700 billion in long-term economic losses. The high-resolution sedimentary record from the Santa Barbara Basin indicates 8 flooding events similar to or larger than the 1861 event have occurred in the past 2000 years. However, little terrestrial evidence for these events has been identified to determine coastal impacts or test the completeness of the Santa Barbara Channel record. Here we show evidence from coastal wetlands along the Santa Barbara Channel that alluvial fan progradation events have recurred at least 7 times over the last 7ka. Because most streams in the Transverse ranges flow only during storms, these alluvial fan building events are interpreted to represent large flooding events. We use a chronology derived from over 40 radiocarbon dates from 39 vibracores up to 4m in length, and 7 Geoprobe cores up to 13m in length from Carpinteria Marsh to test whether these alluvial fan progradation events and/or other abrupt stratigraphic changes are synchronous with regionally documented climatic events. We show that a compilation of biological, sedimentological, geochemical, and archeological proxies for flooding, storms, and/or wet climate conditions from sites throughout the southwestern United States demonstrates the difficulty in correlating and interpreting regional Holocene events across variable proxies and geographic regions. Despite this variation, isolating the purely sedimentological proxies (increase in sedimentation rates, increase in grain size, decrease in organic content, etc.) seems to demonstrate a correlation between alluvial fan progradation events in Carpinteria at 0.3-0.9 ka and 3.5 ka and records of wet conditions throughout the western US, while a lack of alluvial fan deposits from 2-3 ka correlates with the Late Holocene Dry Period. Whether these flooding events represent increased occurrences of atmospheric river events, heightened El Nino activity, or longer-term changes in atmospheric conditions remains an open question.

Promoting advance care planning among community-based older adults: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Bravo, Gina; Trottier, Lise; Arcand, Marcel; Boire-Lavigne, Anne-Marie; Blanchette, Danièle; Dubois, Marie-France; Guay, Maryse; Lane, Julie; Hottin, Paule; Bellemare, Suzanne

2016-11-01

To test an intervention designed to motivate older adults in documenting their healthcare preferences in advance, and to guide proxies in making hypothetical decisions that match those of the older adult. The trial involved 235 older adults, of which half were assisted in communicating their wishes to their proxy. Hypothetical vignettes were used at baseline and twice after the intervention to elicit older adults' preferences and assess their proxy's ability to predict them. By the end of the trial, 80% of older adults allocated to the experimental group had documented their wishes. Changes over time in mean accuracy scores did not differ between groups for any hypothetical situations, except when limiting the sample to dyads that were highly discordant at baseline. The intervention motivated a large proportion of older adults to express their preferences but had little effect on proxies' ability to predict them. Educational tools developed for this study will assist healthcare providers in helping older adults to record their wishes in advance. Clients must be informed of the challenge of making substitute decisions and of the need to discuss the amount of leeway the proxy should have in interpreting expressed wishes. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Quantum Proxy Signature Scheme Based on Genuine Five-qubit Entangled State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Hai-Jing; Huang, Jun; Yu, Yao-Feng; Jiang, Xiu-Li

2014-09-01

In this paper a very efficient and secure proxy signature scheme is proposed. It is based on controlled quantum teleportation. Genuine five-qubit entangled state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. Quantum key distribution and one-time pad are adopted in our scheme, which could guarantee not only the unconditional security of the scheme but also the anonymity of the messages owner.

Late Holocene Drought Variability in Eastern North America: Evidence From the Peatland Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, R. K.; Jackson, S. T.

2006-12-01

Tree-ring based drought chronologies from semi-arid regions of western North America have revealed substantial variability in water balance during the past 1000 years, including episodes of persistent drought more severe than any observed during historical times. Delimitation of regional and continental-scale footprints of these past drought events, including their spatial patterning in humid regions where moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records are scarce, is critical to understanding their dynamics and potential causes. Ombrotrophic peatlands are scattered throughout humid regions of North America at mid-latitudes and represent an underutilized source of multidecadal-scale information on past moisture variations. We are developing a spatial network of peatland-derived paleoclimate and paleoecological records in eastern North America, in an effort to 1) determine whether large, decadal to multidecadal droughts of the past several thousand years were spatially and temporally coherent, 2) assess whether the magnitude of past drought events was sufficient to force ecological change in terrestrial ecosystems, and 3) assess the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of widespread drought in North America. We have completed water-level reconstructions based on testate-amoeba assemblages from two ombrotrophic peatlands in mid-continental North America, Hole in the Bog (NC Minnesota) and Minden Bog (SE Michgian). We also have developed reconstructions from three Sphagnum-dominated kettle peatlands, South Rhody Peatland (NC Michigan), Hornet Peatland (NW Wisconsin), and Irwin Smith Peatland (NE Michigan). Although these kettle peatlands are not truly ombrotrophic, high-magnitude water-table fluctuations should still be attributable to climate variability, and we use these records to supplement our interpretation of regional climate history. Our results indicate that all high-magnitude fluctuations in water balance were spatially extensive, affecting bog-surface moisture conditions throughout the western Great Lakes region. These include a large drought event during the late 16th century and a series of widespread drought events between 1900-1600 BP and 1100- 700 BP. The highest magnitude droughts of the last 2000 years occurred during an interval roughly consistent with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), with individual drought events centered on 1000 BP, 800 BP, and 700 BP. These droughts were associated with major ecological changes, including abrupt changes in vegetation and fire regime. Tree-ring records from the western United States also document a series of extensive and high-magnitude drought events during this time period, suggesting these droughts affected a large portion of mid-latitude North America. Similarly widespread drought during the last 100 years has been linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent ocean basins, particularly an anomalously warm North Atlantic and mid-latitude Pacific, and an anomalously cold Tropical Pacific. We hypothesize that the widespread droughts apparent in our bog records were related to amplification of a similar spatial mode of moisture variability. Comparison with available proxy SST records provides some support for this hypothesis, although a more extensive network of terrestrial hydroclimate records, derived using consistent methods and proxies, needs to be used in conjunction with the developing network of proxy SST records to fully test this hypothesis.

High-resolution elemental records of Glycymeris glycymeris (Bivalvia) shells from the Iberian upwelling system: Ontogeny and environmental control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Pedro; Richardson, Christopher; Chenery, Simon; Butler, Paul; Reynolds, David; Gaspar, Miguel; Scourse, James

2015-04-01

The great potential of bivalve shells as a high-resolution geochemical proxy archive of environmental conditions at the time of growth has been known for several decades. The elemental composition of bivalve shells has been studied with the purpose of reconstructing environmental conditions: e.g. seawater temperature (Sr and Mg), primary productivity (Li, Mn, Mo and Ba), redox conditions (Mn and Mo), terrigenous inputs (Li) and pollution (Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb). However, the interpretation of such records remains extremely challenging and complex, with processes affecting element incorporation in the shell (e.g. crystal fabrics, organic matrix, shell formation mechanisms and physiological processes) and the influence of more than one environmental parameter affecting elemental composition of bivalve shells. Nevertheless, bivalve shells remain an underused source of information on environmental conditions, with the potential to record high-resolution (sub-weekly to annually), multi-centennial time series of geochemical proxy data. The relatively long-lived bivalve (>100 years) Glycymeris glycymeris occurs in coastal shelf seas of Europe and North West Africa and is a valid annually resolved sclerochronological archive for palaeonvironmental reconstructions. The temporal framework provided by absolute annually dated shell material makes Glycymeris glycymeris a valuable, albeit unexplored, resource for investigating sub-annually resolved geochemical proxies. We present a first evaluation on the potential of Ba, P and U, the latter two elements rarely studied in bivalves, in Glycymeris glycymeris shells to record variations in the environmental conditions, respectively primary productivity, dissolved inorganic phosphorus and carbonate ion concentration/pH. High-resolution (31 to 77 samples per year) profiles of elemental/Ca ratios (E/Ca) over four years of growth (2001 to 2004) were obtained by LA-ICP-MS on two shells (13 and 16 years old) live-collected in 2010 at 30 m water depth on the Iberia upwelling system. In both shells, clear E/Ca annual cycles with significant higher-frequency variability (weekly to sub-monthly) were observed over the four years of growth analysed. However, E/Ca ratios and the amplitude of the annual E/Ca cycles were lower in the older shell and showed decreasing trends with age (ontogenetic effects). E/Ca ratios were age-detrended using statistical techniques derived from dendrochronology, resulting in similar and coherent profiles in both shells. It seems unlikely that enough variability in E/Ca ratios will be recorded in the shell after 15 to 20 years of age to allow the retrieval of an environmental signal by age-detrending E/Ca ratios. Detrended P/Ca, Ba/Ca and U/Ca in Glycymeris glycymeris shells showed coherent variations with coeval modelled and instrumental oceanographic series from the Iberia upwelling system that suggest a robust potential as an archive of environmental conditions in the first 15 to 20 years of growth. Nevertheless a robust calibration is required to distinguish between the influences of multiple environmental parameters. This study was financed and conducted in the frame of the Portuguese FCT GLYCY Project (contract PTDC/AAC-CLI/118003/2010).

Growing season temperatures in Europe and climate forcings over the past 1400 years.

PubMed

Guiot, Joel; Corona, Christophe

2010-04-01

The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data. An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings. We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20(th) century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20(th) century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The heterogeneity of MWP versus the homogeneity of the last decades is likely an argument that different forcings could have operated. These results support the fact that we are living a climate change in Europe never seen in the past 1400 years.

Millennial-scale Climate Variations Recorded As Far Back As The Early Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenbrink, J.; Hilgen, F. J.; Lourens, L. J.

Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub- Milankovitch cycles are yet poorly understood, not in the least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice-sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well ex- posed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct m-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that result from precession- induced variations in climate. A higher-frequency cyclicity is particular prominent within the marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of~115 kyr, cov- ering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two quarries located several km apart. Colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environ- mental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of variability at periods of ~11,~5.5 and~2 kyr. Their occurrence at times before the intensification of the North- ern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and moon.

Assessing REDD+ performance of countries with low monitoring capacities: the matrix approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucki, M.; Cuypers, D.; Mayaux, P.; Achard, F.; Estreguil, C.; Grassi, G.

2012-03-01

Estimating emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests in many developing countries is so uncertain that the effects of changes in forest management could remain within error ranges (i.e. undetectable) for several years. Meanwhile UNFCCC Parties need consistent time series of meaningful performance indicators to set credible benchmarks and allocate REDD+ incentives to the countries, programs and activities that actually reduce emissions, while providing social and environmental benefits. Introducing widespread measuring of carbon in forest land (which would be required to estimate more accurately changes in emissions from degradation and forest management) will take time and considerable resources. To ensure the overall credibility and effectiveness of REDD+, parties must consider the design of cost-effective systems which can provide reliable and comparable data on anthropogenic forest emissions. Remote sensing can provide consistent time series of land cover maps for most non-Annex-I countries, retrospectively. These maps can be analyzed to identify the forests that are intact (i.e. beyond significant human influence), and whose fragmentation could be a proxy for degradation. This binary stratification of forests biomes (intact/non-intact), a transition matrix and the use of default carbon stock change factors can then be used to provide initial estimates of trends in emission changes. A proof-of-concept is provided for one biome of the Democratic Republic of the Congo over a virtual commitment period (2005-2010). This approach could allow assessment of the performance of the five REDD+ activities (deforestation, degradation, conservation, management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks) in a spatially explicit, verifiable manner. Incentives could then be tailored to prioritize activities depending on the national context and objectives.

Analysing spatio-temporal land degradation dynamics in dry rangelands using landscape metrics and satellite time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Keyserlingk, Jennifer; Paton, Eva Nora; Förster, Saskia; Bronstert, Axel

2017-04-01

Many of the dry rangelands of Southern Europe are threatened by land degradation. This process not only reduces the land's ecological functioning, but also its capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services for local land users. In rangelands, one important aspect is vegetation degradation, which reduces the land's capacity to support livestock. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand the complex dynamics and drivers of land degradation. In the past, both have been difficult to study due to the extensive spatial and temporal scales involved. In the last decade, a large number of remotely sensed imageries has become available for free, which enables a new approach to this topic. The aim of this research is to study land degradation as a multidimensional process incorporating its spatial and temporal components. We developed a methodological approach that makes use of long-term satellite Landsat data. Here, we use imagery of a typical degraded Mediterranean rangeland in Southern Cyprus (Randi Forest) for the years 1998-2015. We have chosen the NDVI as a proxy for vegetation greenness and applied different spatial landscape metrics to calculate changes in vegetation patterns over time. Further, we applied a time-series based approach (BFAST) on selected pixels, to look for sudden changes and trends in the vegetation dynamics. The results promoted our knowledge on how land degradation dynamics in Mediterranean rangelands can be captured through spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics and allowed us to select the most suitable metrics for further analysis. In the long-term, we aim at using Landsat satellite data covering 30 years. To gain a functional understanding of land degradation, we want to overlay our results from the remotely sensed data with results of an eco-hydrological model (SWAT).

Ionospheric E-Region Response to Solar-Geomagnetic Storms Observed by TIMED/SABER and Application to IRI Storm-Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Mast, Jeffrey C.; Winick, Jeremy R.; Russell, James M., III; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Evans, David S.

2007-01-01

The large thermospheric infrared radiance enhancements observed from the TIMED/SABER experiment during recent solar storms provide an exciting opportunity to study the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances on the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. In particular, nighttime enhancements of 4.3 um emission, due to vibrational excitation and radiative emission by NO+, provide an excellent proxy to study and analyze the response of the ionospheric E-region to auroral electron dosing and storm-time enhancements to the E-region electron density. In this paper we give a status report of on-going work on model and data analysis methodologies of deriving NO+ 4.3 um volume emission rates, a proxy for the storm-time E-region response, and the approach for deriving an empirical storm-time correction to International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region NO+ and electron densities.

An Optimization-Driven Analysis Pipeline to Uncover Biomarkers and Signaling Paths: Cervix Cancer.

PubMed

Lorenzo, Enery; Camacho-Caceres, Katia; Ropelewski, Alexander J; Rosas, Juan; Ortiz-Mojer, Michael; Perez-Marty, Lynn; Irizarry, Juan; Gonzalez, Valerie; Rodríguez, Jesús A; Cabrera-Rios, Mauricio; Isaza, Clara

2015-06-01

Establishing how a series of potentially important genes might relate to each other is relevant to understand the origin and evolution of illnesses, such as cancer. High-throughput biological experiments have played a critical role in providing information in this regard. A special challenge, however, is that of trying to conciliate information from separate microarray experiments to build a potential genetic signaling path. This work proposes a two-step analysis pipeline, based on optimization, to approach meta-analysis aiming to build a proxy for a genetic signaling path.

Material migration studies with an ITER first wall panel proxy on EAST

DOE PAGES

Ding, R.; Pitts, R. A.; Borodin, D.; ...

2015-01-23

The ITER beryllium (Be) first wall (FW) panels are shaped to protect leading edges between neighbouring panels arising from assembly tolerances. This departure from a perfectly cylindrical surface automatically leads to magnetically shadowed regions where eroded Be can be re-deposited, together with co-deposition of tritium fuel. To provide a benchmark for a series of erosion/re-deposition simulation studies performed for the ITER FW panels, dedicated experiments have been performed on the EAST tokamak using a specially designed, instrumented test limiter acting as a proxy for the FW panel geometry. Carbon coated molybdenum plates forming the limiter front surface were exposed tomore » the outer midplane boundary plasma of helium discharges using the new Material and Plasma Evaluation System (MAPES). Net erosion and deposition patterns are estimated using ion beam analysis to measure the carbon layer thickness variation across the surface after exposure. The highest erosion of about 0.8 µm is found near the midplane, where the surface is closest to the plasma separatrix. No net deposition above the measurement detection limit was found on the proxy wall element, even in shadowed regions. The measured 2D surface erosion distribution has been modelled with the 3D Monte Carlo code ERO, using the local plasma parameter measurements together with a diffusive transport assumption. In conclusion, excellent agreement between the experimentally observed net erosion and the modelled erosion profile has been obtained.« less

Forward Modeling of Carbonate Proxy Data from Planktonic Foraminifera using Oxygen Isotope Tracers in a Global Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.

1999-01-01

The distribution and variation of oxygen isotopes in seawater are calculated using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global ocean model. Simple ecological models are used to estimate the planktonic foraminiferal abundance as a function of depth, column temperature, season, light intensity, and density stratification. These models are combined to forward model isotopic signals recorded in calcareous ocean sediment. The sensitivity of the results to the changes in foraminiferal ecology, secondary calcification, and dissolution are also examined. Simulated present-day isotopic values for ecology relevant for multiple species compare well with core-top data. Hindcasts of sea surface temperature and salinity are made from time series of the modeled carbonate isotope values as the model climate changes. Paleoclimatic inferences from these carbonate isotope records are strongly affected by erroneous assumptions concerning the covariations of temperature, salinity, and delta (sup 18)O(sub w). Habitat-imposed biases are less important, although errors due to temperature-dependent abundances can be significant.

An extended network of documentary data from South America and its potential for quantitative precipitation reconstructions back to the 16th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neukom, Raphael; del Rosario Prieto, María; Moyano, Rodolfo; Luterbacher, Jürg; Pfister, Christian; Villalba, Ricardo; Jones, Philip D.; Wanner, Heinz

2009-06-01

In South America (SA) several documentary based climate time series exist, some of them extending back to the 16th century. Most of these records end in the 19th century, and can not be calibrated against instrumental data. Here, we used the newspaper “Los Andes” from Mendoza, Argentina, to extend documentary based indices of Mendoza precipitation and Central Andes snow depth to the late 20th century. A statistical approach to create “pseudo documentary” 20th century data was applied to prolong eight other documentary records. Increased variability of the hydrological cycle in the Central Andes and prevailing periods of wet and dry years in Mendoza suggest that the 20th century is extraordinary in the context of the last 400 years. The final set of extended documentaries explains significant portions of SA precipitation variability in large areas between 20°S and 40°S and can therefore improve the network of annually resolved precipitation proxies.

A time-series analysis of the impact of heavy drinking on homicide and suicide mortality in Russia, 1956–2002*

PubMed Central

Pridemore, William Alex; Chamlin, Mitchell B.

2008-01-01

Aim Assess the impact of heavy drinking on homicide and suicide mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2002. Measures and design Alcohol-related mortality was used as a proxy for heavy drinking. We used autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model total and sex-specific alcohol—homicide and alcohol—suicide relationships at the population level. Findings We found a positive and significant contemporaneous association between alcohol and homicide and between alcohol and suicide. We found no evidence of lagged relationships. These results held for overall and sex-specific associations. Conclusion Our results lend convergent validity to the alcohol—suicide link in Russia found by Nemtsov and to the alcohol—homicide associations found in cross-sectional analyses of Russia. Levels of alcohol consumption, homicide and suicide in Russia are among the highest in the world, and the mounting evidence of the damaging effects of consumption on the social fabric of the country reveals the need for intervention at multiple levels. PMID:17156171

Astronomical calibration of the middle Eocene Contessa Highway section (Gubbio, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jovane, Luigi; Sprovieri, Mario; Coccioni, Rodolfo; Florindo, Fabio; Marsili, Andrea; Laskar, Jacques

2010-09-01

The Eocene climatic system experienced an important transition from warm Paleocene greenhouse to icehouse Oligocene conditions. This transition could first appear as a long-term cooling trend but, at an up-close look, this period is a complex combination of climatic events and, for most of them, causes and consequences are still not fully characterized. In this context, a study has been carried out on the middle Eocene sedimentary succession of the Contessa Highway section, central Italy, which is proposed as the Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the Lutetian/Bartonian boundary at the top of the Chron 19n, with an astronomically calibrated age of 41.23 Ma. Through a cyclostratigraphic analysis of the rhythmic sedimentary alternations and combination with the results of time series analysis of the proxy record, we provide an orbital tuning of the middle Eocene and astronomical calibration of the bio-magnetostratigraphic events (particularly for the C19n/C18r Chron boundary) recognized at the Contessa Highway section.

Total Suspended Matter (TSM) and Maximum Signal Depth (Z90_max) for Monitoring the Evolution of Sediment Resuspension Process in Shallow Coastal Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipponi, Federico; Zucca, Francesco; Taramelli, Andrea; Valentini, Emiliana

2015-12-01

Monitoring sediment fluxes patterns in coastal area, like dispersion, sedimentation and resuspension processes, is a relevant topic for scientists, decision makers and natural resources management. Time series analysis of Earth Observation (EO) data may contribute to the understanding and the monitoring of processes in sedimentary depositional marine environment, especially for shallow coastal areas. This research study show the ability of optical medium resolution imagery to interpret the evolution of sediment resuspension from seafloor in coastal areas during intense wind forcings. Intense bora wind events in northern Adriatic Sea basin during winter season provoke considerable wave-generated resuspension of sediments, which cause variation in water column turbidity. Total Suspended Matter (TSM) product has been selected as proxy for qualitative and quantitative analysis of resuspended sediments. In addition, maximum signal depth (Z90_max), has been used to evaluate the evolution of sediment concentration in the water column.

Extreme brain events: Higher-order statistics of brain resting activity and its relation with structural connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amor, T. A.; Russo, R.; Diez, I.; Bharath, P.; Zirovich, M.; Stramaglia, S.; Cortes, J. M.; de Arcangelis, L.; Chialvo, D. R.

2015-09-01

The brain exhibits a wide variety of spatiotemporal patterns of neuronal activity recorded using functional magnetic resonance imaging as the so-called blood-oxygenated-level-dependent (BOLD) signal. An active area of work includes efforts to best describe the plethora of these patterns evolving continuously in the brain. Here we explore the third-moment statistics of the brain BOLD signals in the resting state as a proxy to capture extreme BOLD events. We find that the brain signal exhibits typically nonzero skewness, with positive values for cortical regions and negative values for subcortical regions. Furthermore, the combined analysis of structural and functional connectivity demonstrates that relatively more connected regions exhibit activity with high negative skewness. Overall, these results highlight the relevance of recent results emphasizing that the spatiotemporal location of the relatively large-amplitude events in the BOLD time series contains relevant information to reproduce a number of features of the brain dynamics during resting state in health and disease.

PREFACE: 1st METECH workshop - From deep-sea to coastal zones: Methods and Techniques for studying Palaeoenvironments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veiga-Pires, C.; St-Onge, G.

2008-10-01

Reconstructing past climate and past ocean circulation demands the highest possible precision and accuracy which urges the scientific community to look at different sediment records such as the ones from coastal zones to deep-sea with a more complete set of technical and methodological tools. However, the information given by each tool varies in precision, accuracy and in significance according to their environmental settings. It is therefore essential to compare tools. With that in mind, and as part of the International year of Planet Earth, a workshop entitled `From deep-sea to coastal zones: Methods and Techniques for studying palaeoenvironments' took place in Faro (Portugal), from 25-29 February 2008 in order to: present several methods and techniques that can be used for studying sediments from deep-sea to coastal zones, namely for reconstructing palaeoenvironments in order to document past climatic changes and short to long-term environmental processes; allow cross experience between different fields and specialties, either from deep-sea to coastal zones or from micropaleontology to geochemistry; give the opportunity to students from different universities and countries to attend the workshop; publish a special volume on the presented methods and techniques during the workshop. The workshop was organized in four non-parallel sessions dealing with the use of micropaleontology, isotopes, biogeochemistry and sedimentology, as tools for palaeoenvironmental studies. The present IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science proceedings reflect this organization and papers are published in each theme. The papers are either short reviews or case studies and are highlighted below. The remains of microorganisms found in sediments are the main proxies used in micropaleontological studies. However, the link between fossilized remains and their living origin is not easy to reconstruct only based on the geologic/sedimentary record. Accordingly, Barbosa presents a review of the actual knowledge of living phytoplankton dynamics and the processes, or environmental conditions, which could contribute to the production of fossilized biogenic remains. In the next paper, de Vernal presents a review, based on several case studies, on how palynological fossils observed in sediments are used in tracing biogenic fluxes, characterizing sedimentary environments, or even reconstructing hydrographical conditions and productivity. The two other papers presented in the micropaleontological proxy section are case studies on the use of dinoflagellates (Rochon) and calcareous plankton remains (Guerreiro et al), respectively, to better understand their local or regional environmental living characteristics ant therefore their specific interpretation for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction at a regional scale. Isotopic proxies can be used either as provenance tracers or as chronometers of different processes. Once again, each study can provide a very specific framework of the proxies' use and it is very important to know and evaluate the limits of these tools in each environment and/or type of analyzed material. Accordingly, the two first articles deal with the study of organic carbon either by carbon and oxygen stable isotopes (Hélie) or by radiocarbon (Mollhenhauer and Rethemeyer) analysis. The two other articles in this section deal with the use of radioisotopes. Ghaleb reviews the methods for measuring short-lived radiosisotopes in sediments, giving examples of their use for estimating recent sedimentary accumulation rates; whereas Hillaire-Marcel reviews the potential use of U-series isotopes as radiochronometers in biogenic carbonates. Geochemistry groups more than one field of expertise. However, in the present section, inorganic geochemistry is not treated and both articles present work on a very specific, and at the same time very complex, compound of the organic matter realm: black carbon. As such, Veilleux et al present a density fractionation method for isolating the small quantities of soot-like and graphitic material usually found in natural samples, whereas González-Vila et al. illustrate the potential of the combined use of analytical pyrolysis and solid state 13C NMR to determine the presence of black carbon and to characterize the refractory organic matter in marine sediments from the Gulf of Cadiz (Spain). In the last section, two papers are presented and discuss sedimentological proxies. In their paper, using diffuse spectral reflectance data, Veiga-Pires and Mestre try to determine if `twinned cores' (or paired cores) can be used as duplicate records to increase the volume of sediments collected in the field, whereas Drago et al discuss the use of fish remains in sediments for the reconstruction of paleoproductivity. Each of the above papers benefited from the constructive comments of at least two reviewers and we wish to sincerely thank the reviewers for their timely evaluation. We also thank the participants, volunteers and organizers of the workshop for their implication, making this first workshop on Methods and Techniques for studying palaeoenvironments (METECH) a success. The workshop and this proceeding would not have been possible without the financial and logistical support of GEOTOP, CIMA, the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FACC07/1/1315) and IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. The second METECH workshop should take place in Canada in the forthcoming year. Conference banner

Century to Millennium-Scale Late Quaternary Natural Climate Variability in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Peter Josef

1995-01-01

Estimates of past natural climatic variability on long time scales (centuries to millennia) are crucial in testing climate models. The process of model validation takes advantage of long general circulation model (GCM) integrations, instrumental and satellite observations, and paleoclimatic records. Here I use paleoclimatic proxy records from central North America spanning the last 150 ka to characterize climatic variability on sub-orbital time scales. A terrestrial last interglacial (~ 130 to 75 kyr BP) pollen sequence from south-central Illinois, U.S.A., contains climatic variance in frequency bands between 1 cycle/10 kyr and 1 cycle/1 kyr. The temporal variance is best developed as alternating cycles of pollen assemblages indicative of wet and dry conditions. Spectral cross-correlations between selected pollen types and potential forcings (ETP (eccentricity, tilt, precession), SPECMAP delta^{18}O) implicate oceanic and solar processes as possible mechanisms driving last interglacial vegetation and climate change in the Midwestern U.S. During the last glacial stage (LGS; 20 to 16 kyr BP) a lacustrine sequence from the central Mississippi River valley experienced major flooding events caused by intermittent melting of the Laurentide ice sheet. Rock -magnetic and grain size data confirm the physical record of flood clays. Correlation of the flood clays to the Greenland (GRIP) ice core is weak. However, the Laurentide melting events seem to fall temporally between the releases of minor LGS iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic. The GRIP delta^{18}O and the Midwestern U.S. magnetic susceptibility time series indicate sub-Milankovitch climate variability modes. Mapping, multivariate, and time series analyses of Holocene (8 to 1 ka) pollen sequences from central North America suggest spatial patterns of vegetation and climate change on sub-orbital to millennial time scales. The rate, magnitude, and spatial patterns of change varied considerably over the study region. Major climatic variance contained in several well-dated pollen time series ranges between 1 cycle/6 kyr and 1 cycle/0.6 kyr. Singular and cross -spectral analyses, again, suggest solar and oceanic forcing. Although it is difficult to attribute past climatic changes to specific forcings, the geologic record of past global change will prove invaluable in the assessment of long-term future climate change and prediction.

Direct observation of sequential oxidations of a titania-bound molecular proxy catalyst generated through illumination of molecular sensitizers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hsiang-Yun; Ardo, Shane

2018-01-01

Natural photosynthesis uses the energy in sunlight to oxidize or reduce reaction centres multiple times, therefore preparing each reaction centre for a multiple-electron-transfer reaction that will ultimately generate stable reaction products. This process relies on multiple chromophores per reaction centre to quickly generate the active state of the reaction centre and to outcompete deleterious charge recombination. Using a similar design principle, we report spectroscopic evidence for the generation of a twice-oxidized TiO2-bound molecular proxy catalyst after low-intensity visible-light excitation of co-anchored molecular Ru(II)-polypyridyl dyes. Electron transfer from an excited dye to TiO2 generated a Ru(III) state that subsequently and repeatedly reacted with neighbouring Ru(II) dyes via self-exchange electron transfer to ultimately oxidize a distant co-anchored proxy catalyst before charge recombination. The largest yield for twice-oxidized proxy catalysts occurred when they were present at low coverage, suggesting that large dye/electrocatalyst ratios are also desired in dye-sensitized photoelectrochemical cells.

Mobile Edge Computing Empowers Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansari, Nirwan; Sun, Xiang

In this paper, we propose a Mobile Edge Internet of Things (MEIoT) architecture by leveraging the fiber-wireless access technology, the cloudlet concept, and the software defined networking framework. The MEIoT architecture brings computing and storage resources close to Internet of Things (IoT) devices in order to speed up IoT data sharing and analytics. Specifically, the IoT devices (belonging to the same user) are associated to a specific proxy Virtual Machine (VM) in the nearby cloudlet. The proxy VM stores and analyzes the IoT data (generated by its IoT devices) in real-time. Moreover, we introduce the semantic and social IoT technology in the context of MEIoT to solve the interoperability and inefficient access control problem in the IoT system. In addition, we propose two dynamic proxy VM migration methods to minimize the end-to-end delay between proxy VMs and their IoT devices and to minimize the total on-grid energy consumption of the cloudlets, respectively. Performance of the proposed methods are validated via extensive simulations.

Basin-wide Millennial Cycles in Arabian Sea Climate Over the Last Glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, A.; Marcantonio, F.

2005-05-01

High-frequency Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) and Heinrich cycles first discovered in the records of North Atlantic ice and marine sediments have been found to extend beyond the North Atlantic There is ample evidence for these millennial cycles of climate variability in the sediments of the Arabian Sea. We employ uranium-series radionuclide proxies to determine changes in the fluxes of sedimentary components in two cores from the western (W) and northeastern (NE) Arabian Sea in order to investigate fluctuations of export production and wind strength on a large regional scale during the last glacial period. In the NE Arabian Sea off of the Pakistani margin, 230Th-derived detrital (eolian) fluxes are highest during periods consistent with the timing of North Atlantic D-O stadial and H 1-7 events. Authigenic uranium concentrations, which we interpret as a proxy for primary productivity, also show an increase during North Atlantic D-O interstadials. Preliminary results from W Arabian Sea sediments off of the Oman margin corroborate that these millennial cycles in productivity and eolian fluxes are indeed basin-wide events. Authigenic U concentrations in these sediments are, on average, about twice those measured in the NE Arabian Sea, suggesting, qualitatively, an enhancement of primary productivity in the western part of the basin. In contrast, fluxes of eolian material to the Oman margin are, on average, more than 10 times lower than those delivered to the Pakistani margin, even though the patterns of millennial variability are virtually identical. We associate enhanced export production and a decreased eolian input during relatively warmer D-O interstadials with an intensification of southwest monsoonal winds. Similarly, decreased export production is coincident with an increase in eolian fluxes during North Atlantic stadial and H events. These results provide strong evidence for a basin-wide atmospheric teleconnection between Arabian Sea and North Atlantic climate on sub-Milankovitch timescales.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability recorded in our record suggests complex responses to major and abrupt shifts during these periods, likely due to Florida's subtropical location and the influence of multiple climate forcing mechanisms in the region.

Dynamic nightside electron precipitation at Mars: ggeographical and solar wind dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D. A.

2012-12-01

Electron precipitation is usually the dominant source of energy input to the nightside Martian atmosphere, with consequences for ionospheric densities, chemistry, electrodynamics, communications and navigation. We examine downward-traveling superthermal electron flux on the Martian nightside from May 1999 to November 2006 at 400 km altitude and 2 AM local time. Electron precipitation is geographically organized by crustal magnetic field strength and elevation angle, with higher fluxes occurring in regions of weak and/or primarily vertical crustal fields, while stronger and more horizontal fields retard electron access to the atmosphere. We investigate how these crustal field-organized precipitation patterns vary with proxies for solar wind (SW) pressure and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction. Generally, higher precipitating fluxes accompany higher SW pressures. Specifically, we identify four characteristic spectral behaviors: 1) 'stable' regions where fluxes increase mildly with SW pressure, 2) 'high flux' regions where accelerated spectra are more common and where fluxes below ~500 eV are largely independent of SW pressure, 3) permanent plasma voids and 4) intermittent plasma voids where fluxes depend strongly on SW pressure. The locations, sizes, shapes and absence/existence of these plasma voids vary significantly with solar wind pressure proxy and appreciably with IMF direction proxy. Overall, average precipitating fluxes are 40% lower in strong crustal field regions and 15% lower globally for one primary IMF direction proxy compared with the other. This variation of the strength and geographic pattern of the shielding effect of Mars' crustal fields exemplifies the complex interaction between those fields and the solar wind.; Stereographic maps of nightside downward electron flux between 96 and 148 eV, measured at 2 AM local time, averaged over the period 05/1999-11/2006. The top, middle and bottom rows are for solar wind pressure proxy ranges of 0-30 nT, 30-50 nT and >50 nT. The left and right columns are for IMF direction proxy ranges of 320-140° and 140-320°. Contour lines are represented on the vertical color bars by horizontal lines.

Choices Regarding Thrombolysis Are Modified by the Way to Transfer the Messages.

PubMed

Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Hongyan; Wei, Wei; Lv, Jing; Liu, Hongyun; Huang, Yonghua

2017-01-01

Although thrombolysis is the most effective medical treatment for acute ischemic stroke, many stroke patients eligible for thrombolysis miss this treatment as a result of delay or refusal by the patients and/or their proxies. To explore the influences of prognostic information for different intervals from stroke onset to the start of thrombolytic treatment (OTT) and other factors on the preferences of patients/proxies regarding thrombolytic therapy, a cross-sectional, discrete-choice experiment was performed between August 2013 and September 2014. A total of 613 Chinese inpatients or their immediate family members were consecutively recruited at the Department of Neurology. After random assignment to a negative-framing group or a positive-framing group, the subjects completed a series of surveys, including nine items about thrombolysis. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to examine participants' preference paradigms for thrombolysis and to categorize the participants into different subgroups. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted to explore predictors of categorization of the participants into each subgroup and to construct a thrombolytic decision-making model. LCA revealed an optimal 3-subgroup model including a consent to thrombolysis subgroup and objection to thrombolysis subgroups 1 and 2. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that compared with assignment to the consent to thrombolysis subgroup, assignment to objection to thrombolysis subgroup 1 or 2 could be predicted by different factors. χ 2 tests indicated effects of framing and other factors on participants' choices regarding thrombolysis. Choices regarding thrombolysis were modified by not only prognostic information for different OTT intervals but also message framing, presentation format, and sociodemographic characteristics. To facilitate consent to thrombolysis, physicians should convey prognostic information to patients/proxies on the basis of patient OTT interval and should order the presentation of therapies according to the classification of patients/proxies. Individualized decision-making (IDM) might be an optimal strategy to increase the selection of thrombolysis, which providing important reference points for IDM in other clinical domains.

Choices Regarding Thrombolysis Are Modified by the Way to Transfer the Messages

PubMed Central

Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Hongyan; Wei, Wei; Lv, Jing; Liu, Hongyun; Huang, Yonghua

2017-01-01

Although thrombolysis is the most effective medical treatment for acute ischemic stroke, many stroke patients eligible for thrombolysis miss this treatment as a result of delay or refusal by the patients and/or their proxies. To explore the influences of prognostic information for different intervals from stroke onset to the start of thrombolytic treatment (OTT) and other factors on the preferences of patients/proxies regarding thrombolytic therapy, a cross-sectional, discrete-choice experiment was performed between August 2013 and September 2014. A total of 613 Chinese inpatients or their immediate family members were consecutively recruited at the Department of Neurology. After random assignment to a negative-framing group or a positive-framing group, the subjects completed a series of surveys, including nine items about thrombolysis. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to examine participants’ preference paradigms for thrombolysis and to categorize the participants into different subgroups. Subsequently, regression analyses were conducted to explore predictors of categorization of the participants into each subgroup and to construct a thrombolytic decision-making model. LCA revealed an optimal 3-subgroup model including a consent to thrombolysis subgroup and objection to thrombolysis subgroups 1 and 2. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that compared with assignment to the consent to thrombolysis subgroup, assignment to objection to thrombolysis subgroup 1 or 2 could be predicted by different factors. χ2 tests indicated effects of framing and other factors on participants’ choices regarding thrombolysis. Choices regarding thrombolysis were modified by not only prognostic information for different OTT intervals but also message framing, presentation format, and sociodemographic characteristics. To facilitate consent to thrombolysis, physicians should convey prognostic information to patients/proxies on the basis of patient OTT interval and should order the presentation of therapies according to the classification of patients/proxies. Individualized decision-making (IDM) might be an optimal strategy to increase the selection of thrombolysis, which providing important reference points for IDM in other clinical domains. PMID:29167657

Deciphering the Boron Proxy Records of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoenisch, B.; Haynes, L.; Harper, D. T.; Penman, D. E.; Holland, K.; Rosenthal, Y.; Zachos, J. C.

2016-12-01

Rapid surface ocean acidification at the PETM has been documented by pronounced decreases in the boron isotope and B/Ca proxies measured in surface dwelling planktic foraminifera (Babila et al., 2016; Penman et al., 2014). However, translating these geochemical signatures to past seawater carbonate chemistry is challenging due to the different-from-modern elemental and isotopic composition of seawater, in addition to the lack of constraints on vital effects in foraminifer species that are now extinct. While the pH decrease can be reasonably quantified from boron isotopes, the application of modern laboratory calibrations to translate the B/Ca signal yields unfeasible estimates, thus raising questions about how well we understand fundamental proxy systematics. Here we present a possible solution to this conundrum from laboratory culture experiments performed under simulated Paleocene seawater conditions, with lower [B] and [Mg], higher [Ca] and across a range of dissolved inorganic carbon and pH. These experiments suggest that raising DIC in addition to acidification amplifies the B/Ca decrease recorded in planktic foraminifera shells, thus providing an opportunity to deconvolve the B/Ca record into pH and DIC signals. Using the boron proxy records in ODP 1209 from Shatsky Rise in the Pacific Ocean as a case study, we will perform a series of sensitivity studies to better constrain the carbon perturbation at the PETM, and the long-term evolution of surface ocean chemistry from the Paleocene into the Eocene. Our results will be compared to LOSCAR model estimates of different carbon input scenarios at the PETM. Babila, T.L., Rosenthal, Y., Wright, J.D. and Miller, K.G. (2016) A continental shelf perspective of ocean acidification and temperature evolution during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Geology 44, 275-278. Penman, D.E., Hönisch, B., Zeebe, R.E., Thomas, E. and Zachos, J.C. (2014) Rapid and sustained surface ocean acidification during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Paleoceanography 29, 2014PA002621.

Stable Carbon Isotopes in Treerings; Revisiting the Paleocloud Proxy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagen, M.; Zorita, E.; Dorado Liñán, I.; Loader, N.; McCarroll, D.; Robertson, I.; Young, G.

2017-12-01

The long term relationship between cloud cover and temperature is one of the most important climate feedbacks contributing to determining the value of climate sensitivity. Climate models still reveal a large spread in the simulation of changes in cloud cover under future warming scenarios and clarity might be aided by a picture of the past variability of cloudiness. Stable carbon isotope ratios from tree ring records have been successfully piloted as a palaeocloud proxy in geographical areas traditionally producing strong dendroclimatological reconstructions (high northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere) and with some notable successes elsewhere too. An expansion of tree-ring based palaeocloud reconstructions might help to estimate past variations of cloud cover in periods colder or warmer than the 20th century, providing a way to test model test this specific aspect. Calibration with measured instrumental sunshine and cloud data reveals stable carbon isotope ratios from tree rings as an indicator of incoming short wave solar radiation (SWR) in non-moisture stressed sites, but the statistical identification of the SWR signal is hampered by its interannual co-variability with air temperature during the growing season. Here we present a spatio-temporal statistical analysis of a multivariate stable carbon isotope tree ring data set over Europe to assess its usefulness to reconstruct past solar radiation changes. The interannual co-variability of the tree ring records stronger covariation with SWR than with air temperature. The resulting spatial patterns of interannual co-variability are strongly linked to atmospheric circulation in a physically consistent manner. However, the multidecadal variations in the proxy records show a less physically coherent picture. We explore whether atmospheric corrections applied to the proxy series are contributing to differences in the multi decadal signal and investigate whether multidecadal variations in soil moisture perturb the SWR. Preliminary results of strategies to bypass these problems are explored.

A comparison of the social competence of children with moderate intellectual disability in inclusive versus segregated school settings.

PubMed

Hardiman, Sharon; Guerin, Suzanne; Fitzsimons, Elaine

2009-01-01

This is the first study to compare the social competence of children with moderate intellectual disability in inclusive versus segregated school settings in the Republic of Ireland. A convenience sample was recruited through two large ID services. The sample comprised 45 children across two groups: Group 1 (n=20; inclusive school) and Group 2 (n=25; segregated school). Parents and teachers completed the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and the Adaptive Behaviour Scale-School: 2nd edition. A series of 2 x 2 ANOVAs were carried out on social competence scores using educational placement type (inclusive vs segregated school) and proxy rater (parent vs teacher) as the independent variables. Key findings indicated that children in inclusive schools did not differ significantly from children in segregated schools on the majority of proxy ratings of social competence. This supports the belief that children with intellectual disabilities can function well in different educational settings. Present findings highlight the importance of utilising the functional model of ID when selecting and designing school placements for children with moderate ID.

Thorium-derived dust fluxes to the tropical Pacific Ocean, 58 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodard, Stella C.; Thomas, Deborah J.; Marcantonio, Franco

2012-06-01

Eolian dust in pelagic deep sea sediments can be used to reconstruct ancient wind patterns and paleoenvironmental response to climate change. Traditional methods to determine dust accumulation involve isolating the non-dissolvable aluminosilicate minerals from deep sea sediments through a series of chemical leaches, but cannot differentiate between minerals from eolian, authigenic and volcanogenic sources. Other geochemical proxies, such as sedimentary 232Th and crustal 4He content, have been used to construct high-resolution records of atmospheric dust fluxes to the deep sea during the Quaternary. Here we use sedimentary Th content as a proxy for terrigenous material (eolian dust) in ˜58 Myr-old sediments from the Shatsky Rise (ODP Site 1209) and compare our results with previous dust estimates generated using the traditional chemical extraction method and sedimentary 4Hecrustal concentrations. We find excellent agreement between Th-based dust estimates and those generated using the traditional method. In addition our results show a correlation between sedimentary Th and 4Hecrustal content, which suggests a source older than present day Asian loess supplied dust to the central subtropical Pacific Ocean during the early Paleogene.

Calcareous microfossil-based orbital cyclostratigraphy in the Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marzen, Rachel; DeNinno, Lauren H.; Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Microfaunal and geochemical proxies from marine sediment records from central Arctic Ocean (CAO) submarine ridges suggest a close relationship over the last 550 thousand years (kyr) between orbital-scale climatic oscillations, sea-ice cover, marine biological productivity and other parameters. Multiple paleoclimate proxies record glacial to interglacial cycles. To understand the climate-cryosphere-productivity relationship, we examined the cyclostratigraphy of calcareous microfossils and constructed a composite Arctic Paleoclimate Index (API) "stack" from benthic foraminiferal and ostracode density from 14 sediment cores. Following the hypothesis that API is driven mainly by changes in sea-ice related productivity, the API stack shows the Arctic experienced a series of highly productive interglacials and interstadials every ∼20 kyr. These periods signify minimal ice shelf and sea-ice cover and maximum marine productivity. Rapid transitions in productivity are seen during shifts from interglacial to glacial climate states. Discrepancies between the Arctic API curves and various global climatic, sea-level and ice-volume curves suggest abrupt growth and decay of Arctic ice shelves related to climatic and sea level oscillations.

THE YOUNG SOLAR ANALOGS PROJECT. I. SPECTROSCOPIC AND PHOTOMETRIC METHODS AND MULTI-YEAR TIMESCALE SPECTROSCOPIC RESULTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, R. O.; Briley, M. M.; Lambert, R. A.

2015-12-15

This is the first in a series of papers presenting methods and results from the Young Solar Analogs Project, which began in 2007. This project monitors both spectroscopically and photometrically a set of 31 young (300–1500 Myr) solar-type stars with the goal of gaining insight into the space environment of the Earth during the period when life first appeared. From our spectroscopic observations we derive the Mount Wilson S chromospheric activity index (S{sub MW}), and describe the method we use to transform our instrumental indices to S{sub MW} without the need for a color term. We introduce three photospheric indicesmore » based on strong absorption features in the blue-violet spectrum—the G-band, the Ca i resonance line, and the Hydrogen-γ line—with the expectation that these indices might prove to be useful in detecting variations in the surface temperatures of active solar-type stars. We also describe our photometric program, and in particular our “Superstar technique” for differential photometry which, instead of relying on a handful of comparison stars, uses the photon flux in the entire star field in the CCD image to derive the program star magnitude. This enables photometric errors on the order of 0.005–0.007 magnitude. We present time series plots of our spectroscopic data for all four indices, and carry out extensive statistical tests on those time series demonstrating the reality of variations on timescales of years in all four indices. We also statistically test for and discover correlations and anti-correlations between the four indices. We discuss the physical basis of those correlations. As it turns out, the “photospheric” indices appear to be most strongly affected by emission in the Paschen continuum. We thus anticipate that these indices may prove to be useful proxies for monitoring emission in the ultraviolet Balmer continuum. Future papers in this series will discuss variability of the program stars on medium (days–months) and short (minutes to hours) timescales.« less

Proxy comparisons for Paleogene sea water temperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Bar, Marijke; de Nooijer, Lennart; Schouten, Stefan; Ziegler, Martin; Sluijs, Appy; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2017-04-01

Several studies have reconstructed Paleogene seawater temperatures, using single- or multi-proxy approaches (e.g. Hollis et al., 2012 and references therein), particularly comparing TEX86 with foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca. Whereas trends often agree relatively well, absolute temperatures can differ significantly between proxies, possibly because they are often applied to (extreme) climate events/transitions (e.g. Sluijs et al., 2011), where certain assumptions underlying the temperature proxies may not hold true. A more general long-term multi-proxy temperature reconstruction, is therefore necessary to validate the different proxies and underlying presumed boundary conditions. Here we apply a multi-proxy approach using foraminiferal calcite and organic proxies to generate a low-resolution, long term (80 Myr) paleotemperature record for the Bass River core (New Jersey, North Atlantic). Oxygen (δ18O), clumped isotopes (Δ47) and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera, as well as the organic proxies MBT'-CBT, TEX86H, U37K' index and the LDI were determined on the same sediments. The youngest samples of Miocene age are characterized by a high BIT index (>0.8) and fractional abundance of the C32 1,15-diol (>0.6; de Bar et al., 2016) and the absence of foraminifera, all suggesting high continental input and shallow depths. The older sediment layers (˜30 to 90 Ma) display BIT values and C32 1,15-diol fractional abundances <0.3, implying marine conditions. The temperature records (˜30 to 90 Ma) show the global transition from the Cretaceous to Eocene greenhouse world into the icehouse climate. The TEX86H sea surface temperature (SST) record shows a gradual cooling over time of ˜35 to 20 ˚ C, whereas the δ18O-derived bottom water temperatures (BWTs) decrease from ˜20 to 10 ˚ C, and the Mg/Ca and Δ47-derived BWTs decrease from ˜25 to 15 ˚ C. The absolute temperature difference between the δ18O and Δ47, might be explained by local variations in seawater δ18O composition. Similarly, the difference in Mg/Ca- and δ18O-derived BWTs is likely caused by uncertainties in the seawater Mg/Ca model and the relationship between the seawater Mg/Ca and the incorporation of Mg into the foraminiferal shell. The U37K' index could not be calculated as only di-unsaturated alkenones were identified, indicating that SSTs were > 28 ˚ C. In contrast, LDI temperatures were considerably lower and varied only between 21 and 19 ˚ C. MBT'-CBT derived mean annual temperatures for the ages of 9 and 20 Ma align well with the TEX86H SSTs. Overall, the agreement of the paleotemperature proxies in terms of main tendencies, and the covariation with the global benthic oxygen isotope compilation suggests that temperatures in this region varied in concert with global climate variability. The fact that offsets between the different proxies used here remain fairly constant down to 90 Ma ago, indicates that the fundamental mechanisms responsible for the proxy relation to temperature remained constant. de Bar, M. W., et al. (2016), Constraints on the application of long chain diol proxies in the Iberian Atlantic margin, Org. Geochem., 101, 184-195. Hollis, C. J., et al. (2012), Early Paleogene temperature history of the Southwest Pacific Ocean: Reconciling proxies and models, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 349, 53-66. Sluijs, A., et al. (2011), Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, Climate of the Past, 7(1), 47-61.

Proxy assessment of health-related quality of life in african american and white respondents with prostate cancer: perspective matters.

PubMed

Pickard, A Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J; Knight, Sara L; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L

2009-02-01

An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention.

Proxy Assessment of Health-Related Quality of Life in African American and White Respondents With Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Pickard, A. Simon; Lin, Hsiang-Wen; Knight, Sara J.; Sharifi, Roohollah; Wu, Zhigang; Hung, Shih-Ying; Witt, Whitney P.; Chang, Chih-Hung; Bennett, Charles L.

2011-01-01

Objectives An emerging issue in the proxy literature is whether specifying different proxy viewpoints contributes to different health-related quality of life (HRQL) assessments, and if so, how might each perspective be informative in medical decision making. The aims of this study were to determine if informal caregiver assessments of patients with prostate cancer differed when prompted from both the patient perspective (proxy-patient) and their own viewpoint (proxy-proxy), and to identify factors associated with differences in proxy perspectives (ie, the intraproxy gap). Research Design and Methods Using a cross-sectional design, prostate cancer patients and their informal caregivers were recruited from urology clinics in the Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs Healthcare System in Chicago. Dyads assessed HRQL using the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS) and EORTC QLQ-C30. Results Of 87 dyads, most caregivers were female (83%) and were spouses/partners (58%). Mean difference scores between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives were statistically significant for QLQ-C30 physical and emotional functioning, and VAS (all P < 0.05), with the proxy-patient perspective closer to patient self-report. Emotional functioning had the largest difference, mean 6.0 (SD 12.8), an effect size = 0.47. Factors weakly correlated with the intraproxy gap included relationship (spouse) and proxy gender for role functioning, and health literacy (limited/functional) for physical functioning (all P < 0.05, 0.20 < r < 0.35). Conclusions Meaningful differences between proxy-patient and proxy-proxy perspectives on mental health were consistent with a conceptual framework for understanding proxy perspectives. Prompting different proxy viewpoints on patient health could help clinicians identify patients who may benefit from clinical intervention. PMID:19169118

sunstardb: A Database for the Study of Stellar Magnetism and the Solar-stellar Connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egeland, Ricky

2018-05-01

The “solar-stellar connection” began as a relatively small field of research focused on understanding the processes that generate magnetic fields in stars and sometimes lead to a cyclic pattern of long-term variability in activity, as demonstrated by our Sun. This area of study has recently become more broadly pertinent to questions of exoplanet habitability and exo-space weather, as well as stellar evolution. In contrast to other areas of stellar research, individual stars in the solar-stellar connection often have a distinct identity and character in the literature, due primarily to the rarity of the decades-long time-series that are necessary for studying stellar activity cycles. Furthermore, the underlying stellar dynamo is not well understood theoretically, and is thought to be sensitive to several stellar properties, e.g., luminosity, differential rotation, and the depth of the convection zone, which in turn are often parameterized by other more readily available properties. Relevant observations are scattered throughout the literature and existing stellar databases, and consolidating information for new studies is a tedious and laborious exercise. To accelerate research in this area I developed sunstardb, a relational database of stellar properties and magnetic activity proxy time-series keyed by individual named stars. The organization of the data eliminates the need for the problematic catalog cross-matching operations inherent when building an analysis data set from heterogeneous sources. In this article I describe the principles behind sunstardb, the data structures and programming interfaces, as well as use cases from solar-stellar connection research.

On the Observed Changes in Upper Stratospheric and Mesospheric Temperatures from UARS HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2006-01-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been extended and re-analyzed for the period of 1991-2005 and for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere in 10-degree wide latitude zones from 60S to 60N. Even though sampling from a solar occultation experiment is somewhat limited, it is shown to be quite adequate for developing both the seasonal and longer-term variations in T(p). Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used in the re-analyses for the seasonal and the significant interannual, solar cycle (SC-like or decadal-scale), and linear trend terms. A simple SC-like term of 11-yr period was fitted to the time series residuals after accounting for the seasonal and interannual terms. Highly significant SC-like responses were found for both the upper mesosphere and the upper stratosphere. The phases of these SC-like terms were checked for their continuity with latitude and pressure-altitude, and in almost all cases they are directly in-phase with that of standard proxies for the solar flux variations. The analyzed, max minus min, responses at low latitudes are of order 1 K, while at middle latitudes they are as large as 3 K in the upper mesosphere. Highly significant, linear cooling trends were found at middle latitudes of the middle to upper mesosphere (about -2 K/decade), at tropical latitudes of the middle mesosphere (about -1 K/decade), and at 2 hPa (or order -1 K/decade).

Evaluation of Operational Albedo Algorithms For AVHRR, MODIS and VIIRS: Case Studies in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Schaaf, C. B.; Saleous, N.; Liang, S.

2004-12-01

Shortwave broadband albedo is the fundamental surface variable that partitions solar irradiance into energy available to the land biophysical system and energy reflected back into the atmosphere. Albedo varies with land cover, vegetation phenological stage, surface wetness, solar angle, and atmospheric condition, among other variables. For these reasons, a consistent and normalized albedo time series is needed to accurately model weather, climate and ecological trends. Although an empirically-derived coarse-scale albedo from the 20-year NOAA AVHRR record (Sellers et al., 1996) is available, an operational moderate resolution global product first became available from NASA's MODIS sensor. The validated MODIS product now provides the benchmark upon which to compare albedo generated through 1) reprocessing of the historic AVHRR record and 2) operational processing of data from the future National Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite System's (NPOESS) Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Unfortunately, different instrument characteristics (e.g., spectral bands, spatial resolution), processing approaches (e.g., latency requirements, ancillary data availability) and even product definitions (black sky albedo, white sky albedo, actual or blue sky albedo) complicate the development of the desired multi-mission (AVHRR to MODIS to VIIRS) albedo time series -- a so-called Climate Data Record. This presentation will describe the different albedo algorithms used with AVHRR, MODIS and VIIRS, and compare their results against field measurements collected over two semi-arid sites in southern Africa. We also describe the MODIS-derived VIIRS proxy data we developed to predict NPOESS albedo characteristics. We conclude with a strategy to develop a seamless Climate Data Record from 1982- to 2020.

Anomalies detected in Central European Temperature series reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental records for the last 500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Moberg, A.; Wilson, R.

2009-09-01

Various types of documentary evidence from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic have been used to create temperature indices for the period 1500-1854. Homogenized temperature series from 11 Central European stations covering the period 1760-2007 served as target values to reconstruct monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures in Central Europe since AD 1500. Spatial coherency of the compiled Central European Temperature (CEuT) series is presented. The CEuT series is further used to define extremely cold/warm months and seasons and the spatial and temporal distribution of such extremes are presented in context of existing knowledge of climate variability within Europe. The CEuT extremes are compared to corresponding documentary based chronologies from other European countries or regions as well as reconstructions from other proxies (e.g. tree rings). The most pronounced cold/warm seasons are analyzed with respect to potential causes and also with respect to recent warming trends. We discuss the potential of documentary evidence to study weather and climate extremes and show that such data provide valuable information for studying past human response to climatic extremes.

A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

2014-07-01

We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

Reconstruction of climate in China during 17th-19th centuries using Chinese chronological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pao; Lin, Kuan-Hui; Liao, Yi-Chun; Lee, Shih-Yu; Liao, Hsiung-Ming; Pai, Pi-Ling; Fan, I.-Chun

2017-04-01

Chinese historical documents are an extremely useful source from which much climate information can be retrieved if treated carefully. This is especially relevant to the reconstruction of climate in East Asia in the last 2000 years as the Chinese has kept official chronicles since 500BC and China also represents a large portion of East Asia's land. In addition, there are also local records in many cities and counties. When available, such documentary sources are often superior to environmental proxy data, especially in the time resolution as they usually provide at least annual resolution and even as high as daily records in some cases. This research will report on our recent advances on using a new REACHS dataset that collects primarily documented meteorological records from thousands of imperial and local chronicles in the Chinese history for more than 2000 years. The meteorological records were digitized and coded in the relational database management system in which accurate time (from yearly to daily), space (from province to city/county) and event (from meteorological to phonological and social) information is carefully reserved for analysis. We then formed digital climate series and performed time series and spatial analysis on them to obtain their temporal and spatial characteristics. Our present research results on the annual and seasonal temperature reconstruction during 17th-19th indicates lower temperature in the 17th century. There were also strangely high occurrence frequency of summer snowfall records in the lower reaches of Yangtze River during the Maunder Minimum. Reconstructed precipitation series fluctuated with strong regional character in the Northeast, Central-east and Southeast China. Spectral analysis shows that precipitation series have significant periodicity of 3-5 and 8-12 years during the period, suggesting strong interannual variability and different regional signatures. Flood happened frequently but long lasting drought was more frequently occurred in the 17th than in the following century. Furthermore drought is highly correlated with locust records, especially in the 17th century. The temporal and spatial variability of the climate reconstruction implies hierarchical and multi-scaled climate variability and a likely changing regime of monsoon: its spatial distribution, pattern and intensity. More detailed spatial-temporal analysis will be applied to analyze the dynamism.

Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

2017-10-01

Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Towards a first detailed reconstruction of sunspot information over the last 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefevre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric

2013-04-01

With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. For such a quantitative use, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. This is the main objective of the Sunspot Workshops organized jointly by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) since 2010. Here, we will report about some recent outcomes of past workshops, like diagnostics of scaling errors and their proposed corrections, or the recent disagreement between the sunspot sumber and other solar indices like the 10.7cm radio flux. Our most recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the SOTERIA, TOSCA and SOLID projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs (COMESEP project). These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot group properties over at least the last 150 years, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The catalog now extends over the last 3 cycles (Lefevre & Clette 2011,doi:10.1007/s11207-012-0184-5). A partially complete version extends back to 1965, and will soon reach 1940 thanks to the data from the Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET) operated by the ROB. We will also present initial applications derived from the present version of the catalog, such as new sunspot-based solar fluxes and proxies that should ultimately help refine our knowledge of the influence of the Sun on our environment, now and throughout the ages. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

17 CFR 240.14a-1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... a meeting, the earliest date they may be used to effect corporate action. (f) Proxy. The term “proxy... proxy; or (iii) The furnishing of a form of proxy or other communication to security holders under... proxy; or (iv) A communication by a security holder who does not otherwise engage in a proxy...

12 CFR 569.4 - Proxy soliciting material.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proxy soliciting material. 569.4 Section 569.4 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.4 Proxy soliciting material. No solicitation of a proxy shall be made by means of any statement, form of proxy...

Estimating regional methane surface fluxes: the relative importance of surface and GOSAT mole fraction measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, A.; Palmer, P. I.; Feng, L.; Boesch, H.; Cogan, A.; Parker, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Langenfelds, R. L.; O'Doherty, S.; Prinn, R. G.; Steele, L. P.; van der Schoot, M.; Weiss, R. F.

2013-06-01

We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), together with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, to estimate regional monthly methane (CH4) fluxes for the period June 2009-December 2010 using proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of methane (XCH4) from GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and/or NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) and CSIRO GASLAB (Global Atmospheric Sampling Laboratory) CH4 surface mole fraction measurements. Global posterior estimates using GOSAT and/or surface measurements are between 510-516 Tg yr-1, which is less than, though within the uncertainty of, the prior global flux of 529 ± 25 Tg yr-1. We find larger differences between regional prior and posterior fluxes, with the largest changes in monthly emissions (75 Tg yr-1) occurring in Temperate Eurasia. In non-boreal regions the error reductions for inversions using the GOSAT data are at least three times larger (up to 45%) than if only surface data are assimilated, a reflection of the greater spatial coverage of GOSAT, with the two exceptions of latitudes >60° associated with a data filter and over Europe where the surface network adequately describes fluxes on our model spatial and temporal grid. We use CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem XCO2 model output to investigate model error on quantifying proxy GOSAT XCH4 (involving model XCO2) and inferring methane flux estimates from surface mole fraction data and show similar resulting fluxes, with differences reflecting initial differences in the proxy value. Using a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) we characterize the posterior flux error introduced by non-uniform atmospheric sampling by GOSAT. We show that clear-sky measurements can theoretically reproduce fluxes within 10% of true values, with the exception of tropical regions where, due to a large seasonal cycle in the number of measurements because of clouds and aerosols, fluxes are within 15% of true fluxes. We evaluate our posterior methane fluxes by incorporating them into GEOS-Chem and sampling the model at the location and time of surface CH4 measurements from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and column XCH4 measurements from TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network). The posterior fluxes modestly improve the model agreement with AGAGE and TCCON data relative to prior fluxes, with the correlation coefficients (r2) increasing by a mean of 0.04 (range: -0.17 to 0.23) and the biases decreasing by a mean of 0.4 ppb (range: -8.9 to 8.4 ppb).

Estimating regional methane surface fluxes: the relative importance of surface and GOSAT mole fraction measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, A.; Palmer, P. I.; Feng, L.; Boesch, H.; Cogan, A.; Parker, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Langenfelds, R. L.; O'Doherty, S.; Prinn, R. G.; Steele, L. P.; van der Schoot, M.; Weiss, R. F.

2012-12-01

We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), together with the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model, to estimate regional monthly methane (CH4) fluxes for the period June 2009-December 2010 using proxy dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of methane (XCH4) from GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and/or NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) and CSIRO GASLAB (Global Atmospheric Sampling Laboratory) CH4 surface mole fraction measurements. Global posterior estimates using GOSAT and/or surface measurements are between 510-516 Tg yr-1, which is less than, though within the uncertainty of, the prior global flux of 529 ± 25 Tg yr-1. We find larger differences between regional prior and posterior fluxes, with the largest changes (75 Tg yr-1) occurring in Temperate Eurasia. In non-boreal regions the error reductions for inversions using the GOSAT data are at least three times larger (up to 45%) than if only surface data are assimilated, a reflection of the greater spatial coverage of GOSAT, with the two exceptions of latitudes > 60° associated with a data filter and over Europe where the surface network adequately describes fluxes on our model spatial and temporal grid. We use CarbonTracker and GEOS-Chem XCO2 model output to investigate model error on quantifying proxy GOSAT XCH4 (involving model XCO2) and inferring methane flux estimates from surface mole fraction data and show similar resulting fluxes, with differences reflecting initial differences in the proxy value. Using a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) we characterize the posterior flux error introduced by non-uniform atmospheric sampling by GOSAT. We show that clear-sky measurements can theoretically reproduce fluxes within 5% of true values, with the exception of South Africa and Tropical South America where, due to a large seasonal cycle in the number of measurements because of clouds and aerosols, fluxes are within 17% and 19% of true fluxes, respectively. We evaluate our posterior methane fluxes by incorporating them into GEOS-Chem and sampling the model at the location and time of independent surface CH4 measurements from the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and column XCH4 measurements from TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network). The posterior fluxes modestly improve the model agreement with AGAGE and TCCON data relative to prior fluxes, with the correlation coefficients (r2) increasing by a mean of 0.04 (range: -0.17, 0.23) and the biases decreasing by a mean of 0.4 ppb (range: -8.9, 8.4 ppb).

The Influence of Indian Ocean Atmospheric Circulation on Warm Pool Hydroclimate During the Holocene Epoch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tierney, J.E.; Oppo, D. W.; LeGrande, A. N.; Huang, Y.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-01-01

Existing paleoclimate data suggest a complex evolution of hydroclimate within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Holocene epoch. Here we introduce a new leaf wax isotope record from Sulawesi, Indonesia and compare proxy water isotope data with ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations to identify mechanisms influencing Holocene IPWP hydroclimate. Modeling simulations suggest that orbital forcing causes heterogenous changes in precipitation across the IPWP on a seasonal basis that may account for the differences in time-evolution of the proxy data at respective sites. Both the proxies and simulations suggest that precipitation variability during the September-November (SON) season is important for hydroclimate in Borneo. The preeminence of the SON season suggests that a seasonally lagged relationship between the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Walker circulation influences IPWP hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, A. G.

2013-12-01

Sea ice in the Arctic is changing rapidly. Most noticeable has been the series of record, or near-record, annual minimums in sea ice extent in the past six years. The changing regime of sea ice has prompted much interest in seasonal prediction of sea ice extent, particularly as opportunities for Arctic shipping and resource exploration or extraction increase. This study presents a daily sea ice extent probabilistic forecast method with a 50-day lead time. A base projection is made from historical data and near-real-time sea ice concentration is assimilated on the issue date of the forecast. When considering the September mean ice extent for the period 1995-2012, the performance of the 50-day lead time forecast is very good: correlation=0.94, Bias = 0.14 ×106 km^2 and RMSE = 0.36 ×106 km^2. Forecasts for the daily minimum contains equal skill levels. The system is highly competitive with any of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook estimates. The primary finding of this study is that large amounts of forecast skill can be gained from knowledge of the initial conditions of concentration (perhaps more than previously thought). Given the simplicity of the forecast model, improved skill should be available from system refinement and with suitable proxies for large scale atmosphere and ocean circulation.

Triggering of repeating earthquakes in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Chunquan; Gomberg, Joan; Ben-Naim, Eli; Johnson, Paul

2014-01-01

Dynamic stresses carried by transient seismic waves have been found capable of triggering earthquakes instantly in various tectonic settings. Delayed triggering may be even more common, but the mechanisms are not well understood. Catalogs of repeating earthquakes, earthquakes that recur repeatedly at the same location, provide ideal data sets to test the effects of transient dynamic perturbations on the timing of earthquake occurrence. Here we employ a catalog of 165 families containing ~2500 total repeating earthquakes to test whether dynamic perturbations from local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes change recurrence intervals. The distance to the earthquake generating the perturbing waves is a proxy for the relative potential contributions of static and dynamic deformations, because static deformations decay more rapidly with distance. Clear changes followed the nearby 2004 Mw6 Parkfield earthquake, so we study only repeaters prior to its origin time. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to compare the observed number of shortened recurrence intervals following dynamic perturbations with the distribution of this number estimated for randomized perturbation times. We examine the comparison for a series of dynamic stress peak amplitude and distance thresholds. The results suggest a weak correlation between dynamic perturbations in excess of ~20 kPa and shortened recurrence intervals, for both nearby and remote perturbations.

Extending isotopic fractionation in phytoplankton for Phanerozoic pCO2 reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkowski, C. R.; Agostini, S.; Weijers, J.; Schouten, S.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (pCO2) is a keystone in many earth system dynamics, including the biosphere, carbon cycle, and climate. In order to better understand the impact of today's exceptional increases in pCO2 on the future, we look to secular trends in pCO2. Photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation (Ɛp), calculated from the difference between the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of environmental CO2 and biomass, has some of the lowest uncertainty in estimation among CO2 proxies. However, Ɛp is generally applied to species-specific compounds which have an evolution-limited record (e.g. alkenones limited ca. 50 Ma). To extend the use of Ɛp, we explore the general phytoplankton biomarker phytane. As the fossilized side-chain of chlorophyll, phytane is spatially and temporally ubiquitous, with the potential to record pCO2 back to the earliest photoautotrophs in the geologic record. To develop and validate its potential as a pCO2 proxy, we explored phytane in modern environments, in a multi-proxy case study, and in a Phanerozoic reconstruction. As a proof-of-concept, the δ13C of phytane was tested in modern environments at naturally-occurring CO2 vents in Japan and Italy, which showed clear fractionation over the steep CO2 gradient. This was then further tested in a multi-proxy assessment in DSDP site 467 that spans the last 15 Ma, looking at both well-established (i.e. alkenones) and potential (i.e. phytane, steranes, hopanes) pCO2 proxies; phytane represented the average δ13C for these biomarkers. Finally, the δ13C of phytane data over the Phanerozoic was compiled, showing agreement with literature reconstructions of pCO2. Current pCO2 reconstructions are derived from many different types of proxies, which can create incongruities and inconsistencies throughout time, making this single well-constrained proxy that ubiquitously spans the geologic record a useful addition to the palaeo-detective's toolbox.

Climatic variability during the last deglaciation: A stalagmite-based multi-proxy record from Mawmluh cave, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, C.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Routh, J.; Fietz, S.; Mangini, A.; Ghosh, P.; Lone, M. A.; Rangarajan, R.; Eliasson, J.

2016-12-01

The Mawmluh cave in northeastern India, is affected by global climate patterns displaying glacial-interglacial patterns and also the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Precipitation from the ISM plays a vital role for the local community and thus, understanding the driving forces of ISM fluctuations became a recent focus of a number of paleoclimate studies. Here, we used the stalagmite KM-1 from Mawmluh cave to reconstruct climate variability during the last glacial-interglacial transition from 22 to 6 ka. For the first time, molecular proxy data (TEX86 and MBT/CBT derived from isoprenoid and branched GDGTs respectively) were coupled to stable isotope records (δ13C and δ18O) and compared to other speleothem records in Asia. ISM system abruptly transition between a suppressed and active state which is associated to changes in vegetation and thus shifts in δ13C. The abrupt δ13C shift observed in our record indicate changes to wetter climate in the Holocene, which are coupled to increase in abundance of GDGTs indicating higher production and/or transfer to KM-1. The TEX86-derived temperature roughly follows the glaciation-deglaciation cycle and Holocene changes. The TEX86 results show good correspondence with the δ18O records for temperature highlighting the potential for the use of molecular proxy in speleothem based climate reconstructions. While the MBT/CBT proxy is also defined as a temperature proxy it is not coupled with δ18O patterns, and thus shows no clear temperature signal. A decoupling between MBT/CBT from soils and the connected speleothems as well as a precipitation-moisture effect on this proxy have been previously reported. In this particular case the MBT/CBT seems to be better related to precipitation-monsoon changes, and thus warrant further exploration as a complementary proxy to isotope records for monsoon strength.

Calcium Isotopes in Foraminifera Shells: Evaluation for Paleo-temperature Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paytan, A.; Revello, C. A.; Bullen, T. D.

2002-12-01

The Ca stable isotope ratio of foraminifera shells has been suggested as a potential paleo-temperature proxy and has recently been applied in several studies to reconstruct glacial interglacial fluctuations in seawater temperatures. The major advantage of using Ca isotopes for paleo-temperature reconstruction is the relatively long residence time of Ca in the ocean. Thus, no spatial or temporal change in the Ca isotopic composition of seawater is expected over time scales much shorter than a million years. Moreover, since Ca is a major constituent of carbonate, and an isotopic ratio rather than an element concentration or element-element ratio (e.g. Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) is measured, the Ca isotope proxy is much less likely to be affected by post depositional diagenetic alteration. However, preliminary results indicate that kinetic effects might largely control the Ca isotope fractionation involved in calcite shell formation. Before this new and exciting proxy can be utilized routinely, a better understanding of the parameters controlling Ca isotope fractionation in carbonate minerals in general and in foraminifera and other carbonate-secreting organisms is required. We have measured the Ca stable isotope ratio of several foraminifera species from core top sediments from two well-studied sites to determine the inter-species and within-species variability in Ca isotopes. We assess the effects of water temperature, calcification rate, and vital effects on the Ca stable isotope ratio of modern foraminifera and evaluate the potential of this proxy for paleo-temperature reconstruction.

The bivalve Glycymeris longior as an environmental archive for the Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Socorro Doldan, María; Morsan, Enrique Mario; Giménez, Lucas; Zaidman, Paula Cecilia

2017-04-01

Southern Hemisphere lacks of suitable high-resolution long datasets for the marine environment. This is translated in poor understanding of climate dynamics and processes at regional and continental-scale. We assessed the potential of Glycymeris longior as an environmental indicator for the mid-latitudes of South Atlantic by applying sclerochronological techniques on sample sets collected from San Matías Gulf, Mar Argentino, southern South Atlantic. We present a reconstruction of marine environmental variability of SMG for the period 1890-2016, covering 125 years. The reconstruction is based on the growth increment series for the first absolutely-dated annually-resolved multi-decadal G. longior bivalve on Sothern Atlantic. Shells were collected in 1918, 1933, 1945, 1983, 1989, 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Sample depth varies between collection years. Age of the individuals was estimated from the hinge region of the shell. G. longior forms an annual narrow growth line. Maximal longevity was 40 years old. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths. Correlations between the growth increment indices and regional temperature series (sea surface temperatures, continental temperatures) and other proxies were made. Preliminary results indicate that G.longior sclerochronologies, combined with low-frequency proxies can facilitate reconstructions of oceanographic variability. We discuss multi-decadal climate variability. Given the ability to generate annually-resolved chronologies G. longior is likely to be used as a climate recorder in southern South America. Hence, G. longior shells from Pleistocene marine deposits from Patagonia, Argentina, have a considerable potential to contain information of past climate for mid-latitudes of South Atlantic.

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Foley, Kevin M.; Johnson, Andrew L. A.; Williams, Mark; Riesselman, Christina

2013-01-01

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's Pliocene Research,Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Underestimation of the Tambora effects in North American taiga ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Arseneault, Dominique; Berninger, Frank; Savard, Martine M.; Bégin, Christian; Guiot, Joel

2018-03-01

The Tambora eruption (1815 AD) was one of the major eruptions of the last two millennia and has no equivalents over the last two centuries. Here, we collected an extensive network of early meteorological time series, climate simulation data and numerous, well-replicated proxy records from Eastern Canada to analyze the strength and the persistence of the Tambora impact on the regional climate and forest processes. Our results show that the Tambora impacts on the terrestrial biosphere were stronger than previously thought, and not only affected tree growth and carbon uptake for a longer period than registered in the regional climate, but also determined forest demography and structure. Increased tree mortality, four times higher than the background level, indicates that the Tambora climatic impact propagated to influence the structure of the North American taiga for several decades. We also show that the Tambora signal is more persistent in observed data (temperature, river ice dynamics, forest growth, tree mortality) than in simulated ones (climate and forest-growth simulations), indicating that our understanding of the mechanisms amplifying volcanic perturbations on climates and ecosystems is still limited, notably in the North American taiga.

Does Unstable Employment Have an Association with Suicide Rates among the Young?

PubMed Central

Kim, Chungah; Cho, Youngtae

2017-01-01

Although a growing body of literature has indicated that unemployment has a positive association with suicide, the dynamic aspects of unstable employment have not yet been considered in suicidology. This study explored the association between employment stability and completed suicide among people aged 25–34 years in 20 OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries with time-series data (1994–2010). In order to consider the different aspects of unstable employment, we tested the impacts of employment protection legislation indicators as another proxy of job insecurity (employed, but unstable) apart from unemployment rates. Covariates, including economic growth rates, GDP per capita, fertility rates, and divorce rate, were controlled for. The analysis was designed to be gender- and age-specific, where observations with ages of 25–29 were separated from those with ages of 30–34. Random effect models were applied to examine changes over time in suicide rates, and other models were presented to check robustness. The results showed that it is a low level of employment protection, rather than unemployment itself, that was associated with increased suicide rates among all of the studied populations. The magnitude of the effect differed by gender. PMID:28452940

InSAR constraints on soil moisture evolution after the March 2015 extreme precipitation event in Chile.

PubMed

Scott, C P; Lohman, R B; Jordan, T E

2017-07-07

Constraints on soil moisture can guide agricultural practices, act as input into weather, flooding and climate models and inform water resource policies. Space-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations provide near-global coverage, even in the presence of clouds, of proxies for soil moisture derived from the amplitude and phase content of radar imagery. We describe results from a 1.5 year-long InSAR time series spanning the March, 2015 extreme precipitation event in the hyperarid Atacama desert of Chile, constraining the immediate increase in soil moisture and drying out over the following months, as well as the response to a later, smaller precipitation event. The inferred temporal evolution of soil moisture is remarkably consistent between independent, overlapping SAR tracks covering a region ~100 km in extent. The unusually large rain event, combined with the extensive spatial and temporal coverage of the SAR dataset, present an unprecedented opportunity to image the time-evolution of soil characteristics over different surface types. Constraints on the timescale of shallow water storage after precipitation events are increasingly valuable as global water resources continue to be stretched to their limits and communities continue to develop in flood-prone areas.

Does Unstable Employment Have an Association with Suicide Rates among the Young?

PubMed

Kim, Chungah; Cho, Youngtae

2017-04-28

Although a growing body of literature has indicated that unemployment has a positive association with suicide, the dynamic aspects of unstable employment have not yet been considered in suicidology. This study explored the association between employment stability and completed suicide among people aged 25-34 years in 20 OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries with time-series data (1994-2010). In order to consider the different aspects of unstable employment, we tested the impacts of employment protection legislation indicators as another proxy of job insecurity (employed, but unstable) apart from unemployment rates. Covariates, including economic growth rates, GDP per capita, fertility rates, and divorce rate, were controlled for. The analysis was designed to be gender- and age-specific, where observations with ages of 25-29 were separated from those with ages of 30-34. Random effect models were applied to examine changes over time in suicide rates, and other models were presented to check robustness. The results showed that it is a low level of employment protection, rather than unemployment itself, that was associated with increased suicide rates among all of the studied populations. The magnitude of the effect differed by gender.

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

2014-01-01

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

12 CFR 569.2 - Form of proxies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Form of proxies. 569.2 Section 569.2 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY PROXIES § 569.2 Form of proxies. Every form of proxy shall conform to the following requirements: (a) The proxy shall be revocable at will by...

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Self-organization of the climate system: Synchronized polar and oceanic teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reischmann, Elizabeth Piccard

Synchronization is a widespread phenomenon in nonlinear, physical systems. It describes the phenomena of two or more weakly interacting, nonlinear oscillators adjust their natural frequencies until they come into phase and frequency lock. This behavior has been observed in biological, chemical and electronic systems, including neurons, fireflies, and computers, but has not been widely studied in climate. This thesis presents a study of several major examples of synchronized climatic systems, starting with ice age timings seemingly caused by the global climate's gradual synchronization to the Earth's 413kyr orbital eccentricity band, which may be responsible for the shift of ice age timings and amplitudes at the Mid-Pleistocene transition. The focus of the thesis, however, is centered the second major example of stable synchronization in the climate system: the continuous, 90 degree phase relationship of the polar climate signals for the entirety of the available ice record. The existence of a relationship between polar climates has been widely observed since ice core proxies became available in both Greenland and Antarctica. However, my work focuses on refining this phase relationship, utilizing it's linear nature to apply deconvolution and establish an energy transfer function. This transfer function shows a distinctly singular frequency, suggesting that climate signal is predominately communicated north to south with a period of 1.6kyrs. This narrows down possible mechanisms of polar connection dramatically, and is further investigated via a collection of intermediate proxy datasets and a set of more contemporary, synchronized, sea surface temperature dipoles. While the former fails to show any strong indication of the nature of the polar signal due in part to the overwhelming uncertainties present on the centennial and millennial scales, the latter demonstrates a large set of synchronized climate oscillations exist, communicate in a variety of networks, and have a direct connection to larger climate patterns (in this case, precipitation anomalies). Overall, this thesis represents a clear advance in our understanding of global climate dynamics, presents a new method of climate time series analysis, evidence of 16, stable, synchronized sea surface temperature dipoles, and provides a detailed sediment core database with explanations of age model limitations for future investigation.

How scaling fluctuation analyses can transform our view of the climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

There exist a bewildering diversity of proxy climate data including tree rings, ice cores, lake varves, boreholes, ice cores, pollen, foraminifera, corals and speleothems. Their quantitative use raises numerous questions of interpretation and calibration. Even in classical cases - such as the isotope signal in ice cores - the usual assumption of linear dependence on ambient temperature is only a first approximation. In other cases - such as speleothems - the isotope signals arise from multiple causes (which are not always understood) and this hinders their widespread use. We argue that traditional interpretations and calibrations - based on essentially deterministic comparisons between instrumental data, model outputs and proxies (albeit with the help of uncertainty analyses) - have been both overly ambitious while simultaneously underexploiting the data. The former since comparisons typically involve series at different temporal resolutions and from different geographical locations - one does not expect agreement in a deterministic sense, while with respect to climate models, one only expects statistical correspondences. The proxies are underexploited since comparisons are done at unique temporal and / or spatial resolutions whereas the fluctuations they describe provide information over wide ranges of scale. A convenient method of overcoming these difficulties is the use of fluctuation analysis systematically applied over the full range of available scales to determine the scaling proeprties. The new transformative element presented here, is to define fluctuations ΔT in a series T(t) at scale Δt not by differences (ΔT(Δt) = T(t+Δt) - T(t)) but rather by the difference in the means over the first and second halves of the lag Δt . This seemingly minor change - technically from "poor man's" to "Haar" wavelets - turns out to make a huge difference since for example, it is adequate for analysing temperatures from seconds to hundreds of millions of years yet remaining simple to interpret [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2012]. It has lead for example to the discovery of the new "macroweather" regime between weather (Δt <≈ 10days) and climate (Δt ≈> 30 yrs) in which fluctuations decrease rather than increase with scale [Lovejoy, 2013]. We illustrate the transformative power of combining such fluctuation analysis with scaling by giving numerous examples from instrumental data, multiproxies, ice core proxies, corals, speleothems and GCM outputs [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013]. References: Lovejoy, S. (2013), What is climate?, EOS, 94, (1), 1 January, p1-2. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2012), Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics, Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. , 19, 1-14 doi: 10.5194/npg-19-1-2012. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2013), The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, 480 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Children with minimal chance for cure: parent proxy of the child's health-related quality of life and the effect on parental physical and mental health during treatment.

PubMed

Mandrell, Belinda N; Baker, Justin; Levine, Deena; Gattuso, Jami; West, Nancy; Sykes, April; Gajjar, Amar; Broniscer, Alberto

2016-09-01

To assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) from the time of diagnosis until disease progression in a cohort of children with diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG). The assessment was collected from the perspectives of the child and their parents and evaluated the effect of the child's HRQOL on their parents' physical and mental well-being, thus providing insight into the optimal timing of palliative consultation, including anticipatory grief and bereavement services. This longitudinal study assessed 25 parents and their children, ages 2-17 years of age with DIPG across five time-points, baseline and weeks 2, 4, 6, 16, 24. Assessments included the PedsQL 4.0 Core Scales, PedsQL 3.0 Brain Tumor Scale, and Short-Form 36. HRQOL instruments were completed by the child (age ≥5 years) and parent-proxy (ages 2-17 years), with the parent completing the SF-36. Children's reports and parents' proxy of their child's HRQOL indicated poor physical functioning and increased anxiety at the initiation of therapy. A trending improvement in the children's HRQOL was reported by children and parents from baseline to week 6, with a decline at week 16. The childs' parent proxy reported cognitive problems, procedural anxiety and lower overall brain tumor HRQOL were assoicated with poorer self-reported parental mental status. Palliative care consultation should be initiated at the time of diagnosis and is supported in the high physical and emotional symptom burden reported by our patients, with heightened involvement initiated at 16 weeks. Prompt palliative care involvement, mitigating anxiety associated with clinic visits and procedures, management of brain tumor specific symptoms, advanced care planning, anticipatory grief and bereavement services, and care coordination may maximize HRQOL for patients and ensure positive long-term outcomes for parents of children with DIPG.

Time discounting and the body mass index. Evidence from the Netherlands.

PubMed

Borghans, Lex; Golsteyn, Bart H H

2006-01-01

In many Western countries, the relative weight of people -- measured by the body mass index (BMI) -- has increased substantially in recent years, leading to an increasing incidence of overweight and related health problems. As with many forms of risky behavior, it is plausible that overweight is related to the individual discount rate. Increases in credit card debts, the rise in gambling and the development of a more hedonic life style, suggest that the average discount rate has increased over time. An increase in time discounting may be a contributing factor in the rise in BMI. Applying a large set of indicators for the individual discount rate from a Dutch survey, this paper analyzes whether changes in time discounting can account for differences in body mass between individuals at a given point in time and whether changes in the average individual discount rate can explain the remarkable increase in BMI experienced in recent years in the Netherlands. We find some evidence for a link between time discounting and differences in BMI between people, but this relationship depends strongly on the choice of the proxy for the discount rate. Giving our hypothesis the best chance, we analyze the development of the time discounting proxies that are most strongly related to BMI. We find no evidence for a change of these proxies over time. Our main conclusion therefore is that overweight might be related to the way people discount future health benefits, but the increase in BMI is more likely explained by shifts in other parameters that determine the intertemporal decisions regarding the trade-off of current and future health and satisfaction.

Arctic Temperature Variability over the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, Dmitry V.; Werner, Johannes P.

2017-04-01

This study presents two new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the last 1000 years. The CFR is based on collection of 60 temperature sensitive proxies north of 60 N mainly from the recently updated Pages2K v 2.0.0 global multiproxy database (Pages2K, 2017) of the Common Era supplemented with some new records not yet included in the Pages 2K archive. Using two subsets of annually dated proxy records sensitive to summer temperatures and those representative of both summer and annual mean SAT, we generated seasonal (summer) and annual SAT CFR for the study region. This study provides a substantial extension to the previous Artic CFR reconstruction by Tingley& Huybers (2013) in terms of both the input proxy data density and duration back in time as well as improved reconstruction technique applied. As a major innovation we used a recently developed extension to the BARCAST method of Tingley&Huybers (2010), BARCAST+AMS (Werner&Tingley, 2015) that provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties via probabilistic constraining the age-depth models of time-uncertain climate proxies within the hierarchical Bayesian framework. Preliminary analysis of the new reconstructions confirms the recent warming to interrupt the millennial scale general cooling trend. The rate of contemporary circum- Arctic warming of 0.04(0.01) C year-1 since AD 1961 is unprecedented on the time scale of at least past 1000 years. Since AD 1990 the circum-Arctic SAT persistently exceeds the two historical warm extremes of AD 1014-1017 and 1028-1033 associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A previous well-recorded early 20th century Arctic warming is manifested as event with a magnitude and duration comparable to a number of other anomalies detected in past centuries including the MCA. The new reconstructions provide a prospective framework for further analysis of seasonal regional past climate variability on the range of time-scales. It includes the periods of past rapid changes in the Arctic with a focus on the regional manifestation and time evolution of past major climate extremes. References: Tingley, M. P. and Huybers, P.: Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years, Nature, 496, 201-205, 2013. Werner, J. P. and Tingley, M. P.: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Clim. Past, 11, 533-545, doi:10.5194/cp-11-533-2015, 2015.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño event on rainwater and cave dripwater isotopes in Northern Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, S. A.; Cobb, K. M.; Moerman, J. W.; Bennett, A. L.; Gerstner, H.; Malang, J.; Wong, C. I.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions of past hydrological variability are primarily comprised of water isotope timeseries, and vastly extend sparse instrumental precipitation data from many key areas of the world. At Gunung Mulu National Park in Northern Borneo (4N 115E), stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records provide a view of western tropical Pacific hydroclimate across much of the last 500,000 years [Partin et al. 2007, Carolin et al. 2013, 2016] including a recent study of past ENSO extremes across the Holocene [Chen et al. 2016]. The climatic interpretation of the N. Borneo stalagmite δ18O records is based on analysis of a 6.5-yr-long timeseries of daily rainfall δ18O, and companion timeseries of cave dripwater δ18O from Gunung Mulu [Moerman et al. 2013, 2014]. Taken together, these studies demonstrate rainfall δ18O acts as a robust proxy for regional convective activity (via the amount effect), which is transmitted into the caves over a period of 2-10 months. However, these findings are highly dependent on the magnitude of the observed changes during the study period, which did not include a strong El Nino event. Here we present an extension of the world's longest running daily rainfall δ18O time series and biweekly cave dripwater δ18O timeseries to span the period from 2012 to 2017, creating an 11-yr-long timeseries for analysis of climatic and karst influences on observed rainwater and dripwater δ18O. Most notably, our new time series captures the very strong 2015/2016 El Niño event. Dramatic reductions in rainfall at Mulu ( 25% across DJF) were accompanied by a 6‰ increase in rainfall δ18O. Cave dripwaters also record the influence of 2015/2016 El Niño event through significantly reduced drip rates as well as 2-4‰, increases in dripwater δ18O. We present compelling evidence that dripwater residence times vary across the expanded time-series - most notably during the 2015/2016 El Niño event. Our results carry important implications for the interpretation of high-resolution stalagmite δ18O timeseries from our site as well as other stalagmite reconstruction sites around the world, given that most studies assume a relatively constant dripwater residence time.

Finding a Needle in a Climate Haystack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verosub, K. L.; Medrano, R.; Valentine, M.

2014-12-01

We are studying the regional impact of volcanic eruptions that might have caused global cooling using high-quality annual-resolution proxy records of natural phenomena, such as tree-ring widths, and cultural events, such as the dates of the beginning of grape and rye harvests. To do this we need to determine if the year following an eruption was significantly colder and wetter than preceding or subsequent years as measured by any given proxy and if that year is consistently cold and wet across different proxies. The problem is complicated by the fact that normal inter-annual variations in any given proxy can be quite large and can obscure any volcanological impact and by the fact that inter-annual variations for different proxies will have different means and standard deviations. We address the first problem by assuming that on a regional scale, the inter-annual variations of different proxies are at best only weakly correlated and that, in the absence of a volcanological signal, these variations will average out on a regional scale. We address the second problem by renormalizing each record so that it has the same mean and standard deviation over a given time interval. We then sum the re-normalized records on a year-by-year basis and look for years with significantly higher total scores. The method can also be used to assess the statistical significance of an anomalous value. Our initial analysis of records primarily from the Northern Hemisphere shows that the years 1601 and 1816 were significantly colder and wetter than any others in the past 500 years. These years followed the eruptions of Huayanaputina in Chile and Tambora in Indonesia, respectively, by one year. The years 1698 and 1837 also show up as being climatologically severe although they have not (yet) been associated with specific volcanic eruptions.

Deuterium Values from Hydrated Volcanic Glass: A Paleoelevation Proxy for Oregon's Cascade Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, T. B.; Bershaw, J. T.; Cassel, E. J.

2017-12-01

Deuterium ratios (δD) of hydrated volcanic glass have been used to reconstruct Cenozoic paleoenvironments. However, the reliability and proper sample preparation protocol have been debated. The Cascades are an excellent location to study the validity of hydrated volcanic glass as a paleoelevation proxy for several reasons. Moisture is largely derived from a single oceanic source and falls as orographic precipitation in the Cascades, leading to a characteristic altitude effect, or inverse relationship between elevation and the isotopic composition of meteoric water (δD). Additionally, past studies have inferred uplift of the Cascades since the Miocene based on changing fossil assemblages, tectonic models, and other isotopic proxies including soil carbonates and fossil teeth. In this study, hydrated volcanic ash samples from the lee of the Cascades were rinsed with hydrochloric acid and sonicated before glass shards were hand-selected and analyzed for δD and wt. % water. These preliminary results exhibited δD values becoming enriched with time, a trend opposite of other paleowater proxy studies in the area. A possible explanation for this trend is contamination due to inadequate removal of materials adhered to shard surfaces that can readily exchange with environmental water. Recent research asserts that hydrofluoric acid (HF) etching during sample preparation is necessary to accurately measure δD values of syndepositional water. Volcanic ash samples were reanalyzed after preparation using HF abrasion and heavy liquid separation. The data from these two subsets are interpreted in the context of modern water across the range, as well as other paleowater proxy and geologic studies to determine the implications of volcanic glass as a paleoelevation proxy in the Pacific Northwest.

Validation of Spacecraft Active Cavity Radiometer Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Long Term Measurement Trends Using Proxy TSI Least Squares Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert Benjamin, III; Wilson, Robert S.

2003-01-01

Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.

Benthic Foraminifera Clumped Isotope Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piasecki, A.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Bernasconi, S. M.; Grauel, A. L.; Tisserand, A. A.; Meckler, N.

2017-12-01

Due to the widespread spatial and temporal distribution of benthic foraminifera within ocean sediments, they are a commonly used for reconstructing past ocean temperatures and environmental conditions. Many foraminifera-based proxies, however, require calibration schemes that are species specific, which becomes complicated in deep time due to extinct species. Furthermore, calibrations often depend on seawater chemistry being stable and/or constrained, which is not always the case over significant climate state changes like the Eocene Oligocene Transition. Here we study the effect of varying benthic foraminifera species using the clumped isotope proxy for temperature. The benefit of this proxy is that it is independent of seawater chemistry, whereas the downside is that it requires a relatively large sample amounts. Due to recent advancements in sample processing that reduce the sample weight by a factor of 10, clumped isotopes can now be applied to a range paleoceanographic questions. First however, we need to prove that, unlike for other proxies, there are no interspecies differences with clumped isotopes, as is predicted by first principles modeling. We used a range of surface sediment samples covering a temperature range of 1-20°C from the Pacific, Mediterranean, Bahamas, and the Atlantic, and measured the clumped isotope composition of 11 different species of benthic foraminifera. We find that there are indeed no discernible species-specific differences within the sample set. In addition, the samples have the same temperature response to the proxy as inorganic carbonate samples over the same temperature range. As a result, we can now apply this proxy to a wide range of samples and foraminifera species from different ocean basins with different ocean chemistry and be confident that observed signals reflect variations in temperature.

Habitat Use and Trophic Structure in a Highly Migratory Predatory Fish Identified with Geochemical Proxies in Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, M.; Walther, B. D.

2016-02-01

Atlantic tarpon, Megalops atlanticus, are highly migratory euryhaline predators that occupy different habitats throughout ontogeny. Specifically, Atlantic tarpon are known to inhabit oligohaline waters, although the frequency and duration of movements across estuarine gradients into these waters are relatively unknown. This species supports over a two billion dollar industry within the Gulf of Mexico and is currently listed as vulnerable under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). A new non-lethal method for reconstructing migrations across estuaries relies on trace element and stable isotope compositions of growth increments in scales. We analyzed Atlantic tarpon scales from the Texas coast to validate this method using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for trace elements and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IR-MS) for stable isotope ratios. Multiple scales were also taken from the same individual to confirm the consistency of elemental uptake within the same individual. Results show that scale Ba:Ca, Sr:Ca and δ13C are effective proxies for salinity, while enrichments in δ15N are consistent with known ontogenetic trophic shifts. In addition, chemical transects across multiple scales from the same individual were highly consistent, suggesting that any non-regenerated scale removed from a fish can provide equivalent time series. Continuous life history profiles of scales were obtained via laser ablation transects of scale cross-sections to quantify trace element concentrations from the core (youngest increments) to the edge (oldest increments). Stable isotope and trace element results together indicate that behavior is highly variable between individuals, with some but not all fish transiting estuarine gradients into oligohaline waters. Our findings will provide novel opportunities to investigate alternative non-lethal methods to monitor fish migrations across chemical gradients.

Intercomparison of spectral irradiance measurements and provision of alternative radiation scheme for CCMs of middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagaran, Joseph; Weber, Mark; Burrows, John P.

The Sun's radiative output (total solar irradiance or TSI) determines the thermal structure of the Earth's atmosphere. Its variability is a strong function of wavelength, which drives the photochemistry and general circulation. Contributions to TSI variability from UV wavelengths below 400 nm, i.e. 0.227-day solar rotation or 0.1to be in the 40-60three decades of UV and about a decade of vis-IR observations. Significant progress in UV/vis-IR regions has been achieved with daily monitoring from SCIAMACHY aboard Envisat (ESA) in 2002 and by SIM aboard SORCE (NASA) about a year after. In this contribution, we intercompare SSI measurements from SCIAMACHY and SIM and RGB filters of SPM/VIRGO SoHO: same (a) day and (b) few 27-day time series of spectral measurements in both irradiance and integrated irradiance over selected wavelength intervals. Finally, we show how SSI measurements from GOME, SOLSTICE, in addition to SCIAMACHY and SIM, can be modeled together with solar proxies F10.7 cm, Mg II and sunspot index (PSI) to derive daily SSI variability in the period 1947-2008. The derived variabilities are currently being used as solar input to Bremen's 3D-CTM and are to be recommended as extended alternative to Berlin's FUBRaD radiation scheme. This proxy-based radiation scheme are compared with SATIRE, NRLSSI (or Lean et al.), SUSIM, SSAI (or DeLand et al), and SIP (or Solar2000) models. The use of realistic spectrally resolved solar input to CCMs is to better understand the effects of solar variability on chemistry and temperature in the middle atmosphere over several decades.

Multi-Decadal analysis of Global Trends in Microseism Intensity: A Proxy for Changes in Extremal Storm Activity and Oceanic Wave State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, R. E.; Aster, R. C.; Rowe, C. A.

2016-12-01

The Earth's seismic noise spectrum features two globally ubiquitous peaks near 8 and 16 s periods (secondary and primary bands) that arise when storm-generated ocean gravity waves are converted to seismic energy, predominantly into Rayleigh waves. Because of its regionally integrative nature, microseism intensity and other seismographic data from long running sites can provide useful proxies for wave state. Expanding an earlier study of global microseism trends (Aster et al., 2010), we analyze digitally-archived, up-to-date (through late 2016) multi-decadal seismic data from stations of global seismographic networks to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of wave climate over the past >20 years. The IRIS Noise Tool Kit (Bahavair et al., 2013) is used to produce ground motion power spectral density (PSD) estimates in 3-hour overlapping time series segments. The result of this effort is a longer duration and more broadly geographically distributed PSD database than attained in previous studies, particularly for the primary microseism band. Integrating power within the primary and secondary microseism bands enables regional characterization of spatially-integrated trends in wave states and storm event statistics of varying thresholds. The results of these analyses are then interpreted within the context of recognized modes of atmospheric variability, including the particularly strong 2015-2016 El Niño. We note a number of statistically significant increasing trends in both raw microseism power and storm activity occurring at multiple stations in the Northwest Atlantic and Southeast Pacific consistent with generally increased wave heights and storminess in these regions. Such trends in wave activity have the potential to significantly influence coastal environments particularly under rising global sea levels.

Solar-induced Fluorescence as a Proxy for Canopy Photosynthesis in a Temperate Deciduous Forest: Comparisons between Observations and Model Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Lee, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Tang, J.; Mustard, J. F.; Van der Tol, C.; Kellner, J. R.; Silva, C. E.

2015-12-01

Photosynthesis in the terrestrial ecosystems contributes to the largest carbon flux in the global carbon cycle. The use of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) as a proxy of photosynthesis at the ecosystem scale (Gross Primary Production, GPP) is a critical emerging technology. Satellite measurements of SIF were found to be significantly correlated with GPP, and several ground campaigns suggested that SIF could improve the GPP estimation. However, it remains unclear to what extent this relationship is due to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) and/or light use efficiency (LUE). In addition, models that simulate SIF have not been rigorously validated. Here we present the first time-series of near-surface measurement of canopy-scale SIF at 760nm in temperate deciduous forests during year 2013-2014. SIF correlated with GPP estimated with eddy covariance at diurnal and seasonal scales (r2=0.82 and 0.73, respectively), as well as with APAR diurnally and seasonally (r2=0.90 and 0.80, respectively). SIF/APAR is significantly positively correlated with LUE and is higher during cloudy days than sunny days. Weekly tower-based SIF agreed with SIF from GOME-2 (The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2, r2 = 0.82). We further compared SIF observations with those simulated by Soil Canopy Observation Photochemistry and Energy fluxes (SCOPE) model. We found that key parameters in SCOPE including Vcmax, LAI, chlorophyll content, and viewing angles determine the agreement between observations and model. Our results provide support to the use of SIF to estimate canopy photosynthetic activities, and present a framework of validating fluorescence simulated by canopy radiative transfer models.

ENSO-driven nutrient variability recorded by central equatorial Pacific corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaVigne, M.; Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K. M.; McGregor, H. V.; Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.

2012-12-01

Recent evidence for shifts in global ocean primary productivity suggests that surface ocean nutrient availability is a key link between global climate and ocean carbon cycling. Time-series records from satellite, in situ buoy sensors, and bottle sampling have documented the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on equatorial Pacific hydrography and broad changes in biogeochemistry since the late 1990's, however, data are sparse prior to this. Here we use a new paleoceanographic nutrient proxy, coral P/Ca, to explore the impact of ENSO on nutrient availability in the central equatorial Pacific at higher-resolution than available from in situ nutrient data. Corals from Christmas (157°W 2°N) and Fanning (159°W 4°N) Islands recorded a well-documented decrease in equatorial upwelling as a ~40% decrease in P/Ca during the 1997-98 ENSO cycle, validating the application of this proxy to Pacific Porites corals. We compare the biogeochemical shifts observed through the 1997-98 event with two pre-TOGA-TAO ENSO cycles (1982-83 and 1986-87) reconstructed from a longer Christmas Island core. All three corals revealed ~30-40% P/Ca depletions during ENSO warming as a result of decreased regional wind stress, thermocline depth, and equatorial upwelling velocity. However, at the termination of each El Niño event, surface nutrients did not return to pre-ENSO levels for ~4-12 months after, SST as a result of increased biological draw down of surface nutrients. These records demonstrate the utility of high-resolution coral nutrient archives for understanding the impact of tropical Pacific climate on the nutrient and carbon cycling of this key region.

The Goes-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM): Algorithm and Instrument Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Koshak, William J.; Mach, Douglas

2010-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms, cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. A joint field campaign with Brazilian researchers in 2010-2011 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

An Examination of Long-Term Environmental-Social Dynamics in the Balkans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, C.; Boger, R. A.

2015-12-01

This study examines the interactions of environmental and social dynamics in Central Balkans over the past millennium, a period that experienced three major climatic phases (Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and the warm 20th century). Meanwhile, the same period witnessed a complex human history with the emergence-rise-decline of the Ottoman Empire and subsequent socio-political events (e.g. wars, famines, migrations). Environmental datasets for the analysis include biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical signals through X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS 14C dating of two western and central Serbian lakes while social datasets include historic population data, land use, settlement patterns, and critical historic events derived from a review of the literature and local archives. Among the environmental datasets, indigenous tree and herbaceous pollen from these Central Balkans records demonstrate fluctuations in woodland-grassland dynamics whereas potassium and titanium counts obtained through XRF act as a proxy for surface erosion and clastic input into the lakes. Microscopic charcoal, cereal pollen and subordinate anthropogenic pollen (e.g. cultivated fruits and vegetables) are used to distinguish strong human impact over the landscape. These key anthropogenic indicators create a more thorough social component of the analysis in association with the social datasets. After reconstructing the individual time series for each environmental and social dataset, the two Central Balkan records are correlated in order to identify the environmental and social homogeneity and heterogeneity patterns occurring at shorter and longer timescales during the period. Results provide insights on how a region responds to social and environmental stressors and our approach demonstrates ways to integrate natural and social science system research.

Do Seasons Have an Influence on the Incidence of Depression? The Use of an Internet Search Engine Query Data as a Proxy of Human Affect

PubMed Central

Yang, Albert C.; Huang, Norden E.; Peng, Chung-Kang; Tsai, Shih-Jen

2010-01-01

Background Seasonal depression has generated considerable clinical interest in recent years. Despite a common belief that people in higher latitudes are more vulnerable to low mood during the winter, it has never been demonstrated that human's moods are subject to seasonal change on a global scale. The aim of this study was to investigate large-scale seasonal patterns of depression using Internet search query data as a signature and proxy of human affect. Methodology/Principal Findings Our study was based on a publicly available search engine database, Google Insights for Search, which provides time series data of weekly search trends from January 1, 2004 to June 30, 2009. We applied an empirical mode decomposition method to isolate seasonal components of health-related search trends of depression in 54 geographic areas worldwide. We identified a seasonal trend of depression that was opposite between the northern and southern hemispheres; this trend was significantly correlated with seasonal oscillations of temperature (USA: r = −0.872, p<0.001; Australia: r = −0.656, p<0.001). Based on analyses of search trends over 54 geological locations worldwide, we found that the degree of correlation between searching for depression and temperature was latitude-dependent (northern hemisphere: r = −0.686; p<0.001; southern hemisphere: r = 0.871; p<0.0001). Conclusions/Significance Our findings indicate that Internet searches for depression from people in higher latitudes are more vulnerable to seasonal change, whereas this phenomenon is obscured in tropical areas. This phenomenon exists universally across countries, regardless of language. This study provides novel, Internet-based evidence for the epidemiology of seasonal depression. PMID:21060851

The use of hierarchical clustering for the design of optimized monitoring networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Joana; Makar, Paul Andrew; Aklilu, Yayne; Akingunola, Ayodeji

2018-05-01

Associativity analysis is a powerful tool to deal with large-scale datasets by clustering the data on the basis of (dis)similarity and can be used to assess the efficacy and design of air quality monitoring networks. We describe here our use of Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering and hierarchical clustering of NO2 and SO2 passive and continuous monitoring data to analyse and optimize air quality networks for these species in the province of Alberta, Canada. The methodology applied in this study assesses dissimilarity between monitoring station time series based on two metrics: 1 - R, R being the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the Euclidean distance; we find that both should be used in evaluating monitoring site similarity. We have combined the analytic power of hierarchical clustering with the spatial information provided by deterministic air quality model results, using the gridded time series of model output as potential station locations, as a proxy for assessing monitoring network design and for network optimization. We demonstrate that clustering results depend on the air contaminant analysed, reflecting the difference in the respective emission sources of SO2 and NO2 in the region under study. Our work shows that much of the signal identifying the sources of NO2 and SO2 emissions resides in shorter timescales (hourly to daily) due to short-term variation of concentrations and that longer-term averages in data collection may lose the information needed to identify local sources. However, the methodology identifies stations mainly influenced by seasonality, if larger timescales (weekly to monthly) are considered. We have performed the first dissimilarity analysis based on gridded air quality model output and have shown that the methodology is capable of generating maps of subregions within which a single station will represent the entire subregion, to a given level of dissimilarity. We have also shown that our approach is capable of identifying different sampling methodologies as well as outliers (stations' time series which are markedly different from all others in a given dataset).

Assessing the relationship between microwave vegetation optical depth and gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teubner, Irene E.; Forkel, Matthias; Jung, Martin; Liu, Yi Y.; Miralles, Diego G.; Parinussa, Robert; van der Schalie, Robin; Vreugdenhil, Mariette; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Tramontana, Gianluca; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Dorigo, Wouter A.

2018-03-01

At the global scale, the uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide by terrestrial ecosystems through photosynthesis is commonly estimated through vegetation indices or biophysical properties derived from optical remote sensing data. Microwave observations of vegetated areas are sensitive to different components of the vegetation layer than observations in the optical domain and may therefore provide complementary information on the vegetation state, which may be used in the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP). However, the relation between GPP and Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD), a biophysical quantity derived from microwave observations, is not yet known. This study aims to explore the relationship between VOD and GPP. VOD data were taken from different frequencies (L-, C-, and X-band) and from both active and passive microwave sensors, including the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) and a merged VOD data set from various passive microwave sensors. VOD data were compared against FLUXCOM GPP and Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2). FLUXCOM GPP estimates are based on the upscaling of flux tower GPP observations using optical satellite data, while SIF observations present a measure of photosynthetic activity and are often used as a proxy for GPP. For relating VOD to GPP, three variables were analyzed: original VOD time series, temporal changes in VOD (ΔVOD), and positive changes in VOD (ΔVOD≥0). Results show widespread positive correlations between VOD and GPP with some negative correlations mainly occurring in dry and wet regions for active and passive VOD, respectively. Correlations between VOD and GPP were similar or higher than between VOD and SIF. When comparing the three variables for relating VOD to GPP, correlations with GPP were higher for the original VOD time series than for ΔVOD or ΔVOD≥0 in case of sparsely to moderately vegetated areas and evergreen forests, while the opposite was true for deciduous forests. Results suggest that original VOD time series should be used jointly with changes in VOD for the estimation of GPP across biomes, which may further benefit from combining active and passive VOD data.

Reconstructing palaeo-environmental conditions in the Baltic: A multi-proxy comparison from IODP Site M0059 (Little Belt)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotthoff, Ulrich; Andrén, Thomas; Bauersachs, Thorsten; Fanget, Anne-Sophie; Granoszewski, Wojciech; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Krupinski, Nadine; Peyron, Odile; Stepanova, Anna; Cotterill, Carol

2015-04-01

Some of the largest marine environmental impacts from ongoing global climate change are occurring in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins, including severe oxygen depletion, intensifying stratification, and increasing temperatures. In order to predict future changes in water mass conditions, it is essential to reconstruct how these conditions have changed in the past. The brackish Baltic Sea is one of the largest semi-enclosed basins worldwide, and hence provides a unique opportunity to analyse past changes. IODP Expedition 347 recovered a unique set of long sediment cores from the Baltic Sea Basin which allow new high-resolution reconstructions. The application of existing and development of new proxies in such a setting is complicated, as environmental changes often occur on much faster time scales with much larger variations. Therefore, we present a comparison of commonly used proxies to reconstruct palaeoecosystems, -temperatures, and -salinity from IODP Site M0059 in the Little Belt. The age model for Site M0059 is based on 14C dating and biostratigraphic correlation with neighbouring terrestrial pollen records. The aim of our study is to reconstruct the development of the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the research area and the related environmental conditions, and to identify potential limitations for specific proxies. Pollen is used as proxy for vegetation development in the hinterland of the southern Baltic Sea and as land/air-temperature proxies. By comparison with dinoflagellate cysts and green algae remains from the same samples, a direct land-sea comparison is provided. The application of the modern analogues technique to pollen assemblages has previously yielded precise results for late Pleistocene and Holocene datasets including specific information on seasonality, but pollen-based reconstructions for Northern Europe may be hampered by plant migration effects. Chironomid remains are used where possible as indicators for surface water conditions during the warm season. Analyses of palynomorphs and chironomids are complemented with the analysis of lipid palaeothermometers, such as TEX86 and the long chain diol index (LDI), which both allow reconstructing variation in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Baltic Sea. In addition, the MBT/CBT proxy is used to infer past changes in mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) and the diol index (DI) to determine variation in salinity of the Baltic Sea's surface waters over the investigated time period. The low salinity (25 psu) of the Little Belt is a potential limitation for several of the used proxies, which could lead to under-estimation of paleo-temperatures. To quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of salinity, δ18O measurements (monospecific) and faunal assemblage analyses are performed on benthic foraminifera as well as ostracod faunal assemblages, which are especially sensitive to bottom water salinity changes. The results of this inter-comparison study will be useful for the reconstruction of gradients between different settings, e.g. how water column stratification developed, possibly if and how changes in seasonality occurred, and to identify the circumstances under which specific proxies may be affected by secondary impacts.

A quantum proxy group signature scheme based on an entangled five-qubit state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Meiling; Ma, Wenping; Wang, Lili; Yin, Xunru

2015-09-01

A quantum proxy group signature (QPGS) scheme based on controlled teleportation is presented, by using the entangled five-qubit quantum state functions as quantum channel. The scheme uses the physical characteristics of quantum mechanics to implement delegation, signature and verification. The security of the scheme is guaranteed by the entanglement correlations of the entangled five-qubit state, the secret keys based on the quantum key distribution (QKD) and the one-time pad algorithm, all of which have been proven to be unconditionally secure and the signature anonymity.

Munchausen syndrome by proxy: an experience from Nigeria.

PubMed

Ifere, O A; Yakubu, A M; Aikhionbare, H A; Quaitey, G E; Taqi, A M

1993-01-01

We report here on a child who over a period of 8 years was admitted several times to hospitals in different states of Nigeria based on fictitious illnesses described by his mother. The child had various unnecessary, expensive and invasive investigations followed by treatment with harmful drugs. The evolution of this case of Munchausen syndrome by proxy is described in order to alert paediatricians in developing countries to a problem which is described frequently in more affluent societies. We believe this is the first such case to be recorded in West Africa.

Determination of Vertical Borehole and Geological Formation Properties using the Crossed Contour Method.

PubMed

Leyde, Brian P; Klein, Sanford A; Nellis, Gregory F; Skye, Harrison

2017-03-01

This paper presents a new method called the Crossed Contour Method for determining the effective properties (borehole radius and ground thermal conductivity) of a vertical ground-coupled heat exchanger. The borehole radius is used as a proxy for the overall borehole thermal resistance. The method has been applied to both simulated and experimental borehole Thermal Response Test (TRT) data using the Duct Storage vertical ground heat exchanger model implemented in the TRansient SYstems Simulation software (TRNSYS). The Crossed Contour Method generates a parametric grid of simulated TRT data for different combinations of borehole radius and ground thermal conductivity in a series of time windows. The error between the average of the simulated and experimental bore field inlet and outlet temperatures is calculated for each set of borehole properties within each time window. Using these data, contours of the minimum error are constructed in the parameter space of borehole radius and ground thermal conductivity. When all of the minimum error contours for each time window are superimposed, the point where the contours cross (intersect) identifies the effective borehole properties for the model that most closely represents the experimental data in every time window and thus over the entire length of the experimental data set. The computed borehole properties are compared with results from existing model inversion methods including the Ground Property Measurement (GPM) software developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Line Source Model.

Evaluation of Denoising Strategies to Address Motion-Correlated Artifacts in Resting-State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data from the Human Connectome Project

PubMed Central

Kandala, Sridhar; Nolan, Dan; Laumann, Timothy O.; Power, Jonathan D.; Adeyemo, Babatunde; Harms, Michael P.; Petersen, Steven E.; Barch, Deanna M.

2016-01-01

Abstract Like all resting-state functional connectivity data, the data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) are adversely affected by structured noise artifacts arising from head motion and physiological processes. Functional connectivity estimates (Pearson's correlation coefficients) were inflated for high-motion time points and for high-motion participants. This inflation occurred across the brain, suggesting the presence of globally distributed artifacts. The degree of inflation was further increased for connections between nearby regions compared with distant regions, suggesting the presence of distance-dependent spatially specific artifacts. We evaluated several denoising methods: censoring high-motion time points, motion regression, the FMRIB independent component analysis-based X-noiseifier (FIX), and mean grayordinate time series regression (MGTR; as a proxy for global signal regression). The results suggest that FIX denoising reduced both types of artifacts, but left substantial global artifacts behind. MGTR significantly reduced global artifacts, but left substantial spatially specific artifacts behind. Censoring high-motion time points resulted in a small reduction of distance-dependent and global artifacts, eliminating neither type. All denoising strategies left differences between high- and low-motion participants, but only MGTR substantially reduced those differences. Ultimately, functional connectivity estimates from HCP data showed spatially specific and globally distributed artifacts, and the most effective approach to address both types of motion-correlated artifacts was a combination of FIX and MGTR. PMID:27571276

Extense historical droughts in Spain derived from documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez-Castro, F.; García-Herrera, R.; Barriendos, M.

2009-09-01

Documentary records, specially those from rogation ceremonies have been extensively used to build proxy series of droughts and floods in Spain. Most of the work done previously has focused in the abstraction of the documents and building of the individual series, but less attention has been paid to the joint analysis of this type of records. This is problematic because, due to the diversity of Spanish climates, the climatological meaning of the rogation ceremonies changes depending on the considered region. This paper aims to analyse the spatial extension of drought events from the rogation records from Barcelona, Bilbao, Gerona, Murcia, Seville, Tarragona, Toledo, Tortosa and Zamora, which cover the 16th to 19th centuries. The representativeness of each of them is analysed taking into account the local climate and the series variability. Then the spatial scale of the recorded droughts is examined at seasonal scale. The results show high multidecadal variability, with the driest periods at national scale recorded during the 1680s, 1730s and 1780s. Finally, the dry years of 1680, 1683 and 1817 are analysed in detail.

A statistical study of EMIC waves observed by Cluster: 2. Associated plasma conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R. C.; Zhang, J.-C.; Kistler, L. M.; Spence, H. E.; Lin, R.-L.; Klecker, B.; Dunlop, M. W.; André, M.; Jordanova, V. K.

2016-07-01

This is the second in a pair of papers discussing a statistical study of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves detected during 10 years (2001-2010) of Cluster observations. In the first paper, an analysis of EMIC wave properties (i.e., wave power, polarization, normal angle, and wave propagation angle) is presented in both the magnetic latitude (MLAT)-distance as well as magnetic local time (MLT)-L frames. This paper focuses on the distribution of EMIC wave-associated plasma conditions as well as two EMIC wave generation proxies (the electron plasma frequency to gyrofrequency ratio proxy and the linear theory proxy) in these same frames. Based on the distributions of hot H+ anisotropy, electron and hot H+ density measurements, hot H+ parallel plasma beta, and the calculated wave generation proxies, three source regions of EMIC waves appear to exist: (1) the well-known overlap between cold plasmaspheric or plume populations with hot anisotropic ring current populations in the postnoon to dusk MLT region; (2) regions all along the dayside magnetosphere at high L shells related to dayside magnetospheric compression and drift shell splitting; and (3) off-equator regions possibly associated with the Shabansky orbits in the dayside magnetosphere.