Estimating rupture distances without a rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Eric M.; Worden, Charles

2017-01-01

Most ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) require distances that are defined relative to a rupture model, such as the distance to the surface projection of the rupture (RJB) or the closest distance to the rupture plane (RRUP). There are a number of situations in which GMPEs are used where it is either necessary or advantageous to derive rupture distances from point-source distance metrics, such as hypocentral (RHYP) or epicentral (REPI) distance. For ShakeMap, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the shaking levels for events without rupture models, and before rupture models are available for events that eventually do have rupture models. In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, it is often convenient to use point-source distances for gridded seismicity sources, particularly if a preferred orientation is unknown. This avoids the computationally cumbersome task of computing rupture-based distances for virtual rupture planes across all strikes and dips for each source. We derive average rupture distances conditioned on REPI, magnitude, and (optionally) back azimuth, for a variety of assumed seismological constraints. Additionally, we derive adjustment factors for GMPE standard deviations that reflect the added uncertainty in the ground motion estimation when point-source distances are used to estimate rupture distances.

Neck curve polynomials in neck rupture model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurniadi, Rizal; Perkasa, Yudha S.; Waris, Abdul

2012-06-06

The Neck Rupture Model is a model that explains the scission process which has smallest radius in liquid drop at certain position. Old fashion of rupture position is determined randomly so that has been called as Random Neck Rupture Model (RNRM). The neck curve polynomials have been employed in the Neck Rupture Model for calculation the fission yield of neutron induced fission reaction of {sup 280}X{sub 90} with changing of order of polynomials as well as temperature. The neck curve polynomials approximation shows the important effects in shaping of fission yield curve.

Persistent rupture terminations at a restraining bend from slip rates on the eastern Altyn Tagh fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, A. J.; Oskin, M. E.; Liu-zeng, J.; Shao, Y.-X.

2018-05-01

Restraining double-bends along strike-slip faults inhibit or permit throughgoing ruptures depending on bend angle, length, and prior rupture history. Modeling predicts that for mature strike-slip faults in a regional stress regime characterized by simple shear, a restraining bend of >18° and >4 km length impedes propagating rupture. Indeed, natural evidence shows that the most recent rupture(s) of the Xorkoli section (90°-93°E) of the eastern Altyn Tagh fault (ATF) ended at large restraining bends. However, when multiple seismic cycles are considered in numerical dynamic rupture modeling, heterogeneous residual stresses enable some ruptures to propagate further, modulating whether the bends persistently serve as barriers. These models remain to be tested using observations of the cumulative effects of multiple earthquake ruptures. Here we investigate whether a large restraining double-bend on the ATF serves consistently as a barrier to rupture by measuring long-term slip rates around the terminus of its most recent surface rupture at the Aksay bend. Our results show a W-E decline in slip as the SATF enters the bend, as would be predicted from repeated rupture terminations there. Prior work demonstrated no Holocene slip on the central, most misoriented portion of the bend, while 19-79 m offsets suggest that multiple ruptures have occurred on the west side of the bend during the Holocene. Thus we conclude the gradient in the SATF's slip rate results from the repeated termination of earthquake ruptures there. However, a finite slip rate east of the bend represents the transmission of some slip, suggesting that a small fraction of ruptures may fully traverse or jump the double-bend. This agreement between natural observations of slip accumulation and multi-cycle models of fault rupture enables us to translate observed slip rates into insight about the dynamic rupture process of individual earthquakes as they encounter geometric complexities along faults.

A multiple fault rupture model of the November 13 2016, M 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benites, R. A.; Francois-Holden, C.; Langridge, R. M.; Kaneko, Y.; Fry, B.; Kaiser, A. E.; Caldwell, T. G.

2017-12-01

The rupture-history of the November 13 2016 MW7.8 Kaikoura earthquake recorded by near- and intermediate-field strong-motion seismometers and 2 high-rate GPS stations reveals a complex cascade of multiple crustal fault rupture. In spite of such complexity, we show that the rupture history of each fault is well approximated by simple kinematic model with uniform slip and rupture velocity. Using 9 faults embedded in a crustal layer 19 km thick, each with a prescribed slip vector and rupture velocity, this model accurately reproduces the displacement waveforms recorded at the near-field strong-motion and GPS stations. This model includes the `Papatea Fault' with a mixed thrust and strike-slip mechanism based on in-situ geological observations with up to 8 m of uplift observed. Although the kinematic model fits the ground-motion at the nearest strong station, it doesn not reproduce the one sided nature of the static deformation field observed geodetically. This suggests a dislocation based approach does not completely capture the mechanical response of the Papatea Fault. The fault system as a whole extends for approximately 150 km along the eastern side of the Marlborough fault system in the South Island of New Zealand. The total duration of the rupture was 74 seconds. The timing and location of each fault's rupture suggests fault interaction and triggering resulting in a northward cascade crustal ruptures. Our model does not require rupture of the underlying subduction interface to explain the data.

Modeling 3D Dynamic Rupture on Arbitrarily-Shaped faults by Boundary-Conforming Finite Difference Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, D.; Zhu, H.; Luo, Y.; Chen, X.

2008-12-01

We use a new finite difference method (FDM) and the slip-weakening law to model the rupture dynamics of a non-planar fault embedded in a 3-D elastic media with free surface. The new FDM, based on boundary- conforming grid, sets up the mapping equations between the curvilinear coordinate and the Cartesian coordinate and transforms irregular physical space to regular computational space; it also employs a higher- order non-staggered DRP/opt MacCormack scheme which is of low dispersion and low dissipation so that the high accuracy and stability of our rupture modeling are guaranteed. Compared with the previous methods, not only we can compute the spontaneous rupture of an arbitrarily shaped fault, but also can model the influence of the surface topography on the rupture process of earthquake. In order to verify the feasibility of this method, we compared our results and other previous results, and found out they matched perfectly. Thanks to the boundary-conforming FDM, problems such as dynamic rupture with arbitrary dip, strike and rake over an arbitrary curved plane can be handled; and supershear or subshear rupture can be simulated with different parameters such as the initial stresses and the critical slip displacement Dc. Besides, our rupture modeling is economical to be implemented owing to its high efficiency and does not suffer from displacement leakage. With the help of inversion data of rupture by field observations, this method is convenient to model rupture processes and seismograms of natural earthquakes.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

Shared and Distinct Rupture Discriminants of Small and Large Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Varble, Nicole; Tutino, Vincent M; Yu, Jihnhee; Sonig, Ashish; Siddiqui, Adnan H; Davies, Jason M; Meng, Hui

2018-04-01

Many ruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) are small. Clinical presentations suggest that small and large IAs could have different phenotypes. It is unknown if small and large IAs have different characteristics that discriminate rupture. We analyzed morphological, hemodynamic, and clinical parameters of 413 retrospectively collected IAs (training cohort; 102 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis was performed to determine a size cutoff to dichotomize the IA population into small and large IAs. We applied multivariate logistic regression to build rupture discrimination models for small IAs, large IAs, and an aggregation of all IAs. We validated the ability of these 3 models to predict rupture status in a second, independently collected cohort of 129 IAs (testing cohort; 14 ruptured IAs). Hierarchal cluster analysis in the training cohort confirmed that small and large IAs are best separated at 5 mm based on morphological and hemodynamic features (area under the curve=0.81). For small IAs (<5 mm), the resulting rupture discrimination model included undulation index, oscillatory shear index, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and absence of multiple IAs (area under the curve=0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88), whereas for large IAs (≥5 mm), the model included undulation index, low wall shear stress, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, and IA location (area under the curve=0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.93). The model for the aggregated training cohort retained all the parameters in the size-dichotomized models. Results in the testing cohort showed that the size-dichotomized rupture discrimination model had higher sensitivity (64% versus 29%) and accuracy (77% versus 74%), marginally higher area under the curve (0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.88 versus 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.82), and similar specificity (78% versus 80%) compared with the aggregate-based model. Small (<5 mm) and large (≥5 mm) IAs have different hemodynamic and clinical, but not morphological, rupture discriminants. Size-dichotomized rupture discrimination models performed better than the aggregate model. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Influence of morphology and hemodynamic factors on rupture of multiple intracranial aneurysms: matched-pairs of ruptured-unruptured aneurysms located unilaterally on the anterior circulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Ying; Yang, Xinjian; Wang, Yang; Liu, Jian; Li, Chuanhui; Jing, Linkai; Wang, Shengzhang; Li, Haiyun

2014-12-31

The authors evaluated the impact of morphological and hemodynamic factors on the rupture of matched-pairs of ruptured-unruptured intracranial aneurysms on one patient's ipsilateral anterior circulation with 3D reconstruction model and computational fluid dynamic method simulation. 20 patients with intracranial aneurysms pairs on the same-side of anterior circulation but with different rupture status were retrospectively collected. Each pair was divided into ruptured-unruptured group. Patient-specific models based on their 3D-DSA images were constructed and analyzed. The relative locations, morphologic and hemodynamic factors of these two groups were compared. There was no significant difference in the relative bleeding location. The morphological factors analysis found that the ruptured aneurysms more often had irregular shape and had significantly higher maximum height and aspect ratio. The hemodynamic factors analysis found lower minimum wall shear stress (WSSmin) and more low-wall shear stress-area (LSA) in the ruptured aneurysms than that of the unruptured ones. The ruptured aneurysms more often had WSSmin on the dome. Intracranial aneurysms pairs with different rupture status on unilateral side of anterior circulation may be a good disease model to investigate possible characteristics linked to rupture independent of patient characteristics. Irregular shape, larger size, higher aspect ratio, lower WSSmin and more LSA may indicate a higher risk for their rupture.

Dynamic rupture modeling with laboratory-derived constitutive relations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Okubo, P.G.

1989-01-01

A laboratory-derived state variable friction constitutive relation is used in the numerical simulation of the dynamic growth of an in-plane or mode II shear crack. According to this formulation, originally presented by J.H. Dieterich, frictional resistance varies with the logarithm of the slip rate and with the logarithm of the frictional state variable as identified by A.L. Ruina. Under conditions of steady sliding, the state variable is proportional to (slip rate)-1. Following suddenly introduced increases in slip rate, the rate and state dependencies combine to produce behavior which resembles slip weakening. When rupture nucleation is artificially forced at fixed rupture velocity, rupture models calculated with the state variable friction in a uniformly distributed initial stress field closely resemble earlier rupture models calculated with a slip weakening fault constitutive relation. Model calculations suggest that dynamic rupture following a state variable friction relation is similar to that following a simpler fault slip weakening law. However, when modeling the full cycle of fault motions, rate-dependent frictional responses included in the state variable formulation are important at low slip rates associated with rupture nucleation. -from Author

Earthquake Source Inversion Blindtest: Initial Results and Further Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P.; Burjanek, J.; Delouis, B.; Festa, G.; Francois-Holden, C.; Monelli, D.; Uchide, T.; Zahradnik, J.

2007-12-01

Images of earthquake ruptures, obtained from modelling/inverting seismic and/or geodetic data exhibit a high degree in spatial complexity. This earthquake source heterogeneity controls seismic radiation, and is determined by the details of the dynamic rupture process. In turn, such rupture models are used for studying source dynamics and for ground-motion prediction. But how reliable and trustworthy are these earthquake source inversions? Rupture models for a given earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often display striking disparities (see http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/srcmod) However, well resolved, robust, and hence reliable source-rupture models are an integral part to better understand earthquake source physics and to improve seismic hazard assessment. Therefore it is timely to conduct a large-scale validation exercise for comparing the methods, parameterization and data-handling in earthquake source inversions.We recently started a blind test in which several research groups derive a kinematic rupture model from synthetic seismograms calculated for an input model unknown to the source modelers. The first results, for an input rupture model with heterogeneous slip but constant rise time and rupture velocity, reveal large differences between the input and inverted model in some cases, while a few studies achieve high correlation between the input and inferred model. Here we report on the statistical assessment of the set of inverted rupture models to quantitatively investigate their degree of (dis-)similarity. We briefly discuss the different inversion approaches, their possible strength and weaknesses, and the use of appropriate misfit criteria. Finally we present new blind-test models, with increasing source complexity and ambient noise on the synthetics. The goal is to attract a large group of source modelers to join this source-inversion blindtest in order to conduct a large-scale validation exercise to rigorously asses the performance and reliability of current inversion methods and to discuss future developments.

The transition of dynamic rupture styles in elastic media under velocity-weakening friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.-A.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, P. M.

2012-09-01

Although kinematic earthquake source inversions show dominantly pulse-like subshear rupture behavior, seismological observations, laboratory experiments and theoretical models indicate that earthquakes can operate with different rupture styles: either as pulses or cracks, that propagate at subshear or supershear speeds. The determination of rupture style and speed has important implications for ground motions and may inform about the state of stress and strength of active fault zones. We conduct 2D in-plane dynamic rupture simulations with a spectral element method to investigate the diversity of rupture styles on faults governed by velocity-and-state-dependent friction with dramatic velocity-weakening at high slip rate. Our rupture models are governed by uniform initial stresses, and are artificially initiated. We identify the conditions that lead to different rupture styles by investigating the transitions between decaying, steady state and growing pulses, cracks, sub-shear and super-shear ruptures as a function of background stress, nucleation size and characteristic velocity at the onset of severe weakening. Our models show that small changes of background stress or nucleation size may lead to dramatic changes of rupture style. We characterize the asymptotic properties of steady state and self-similar pulses as a function of background stress. We show that an earthquake may not be restricted to a single rupture style, but that complex rupture patterns may emerge that consist of multiple rupture fronts, possibly involving different styles and back-propagating fronts. We also demonstrate the possibility of a super-shear transition for pulse-like ruptures. Finally, we draw connections between our findings and recent seismological observations.

Dynamic rupture modeling of thrust faults with parallel surface traces.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peshette, P.; Lozos, J.; Yule, D.

2017-12-01

Fold and thrust belts (such as those found in the Himalaya or California Transverse Ranges) consist of many neighboring thrust faults in a variety of geometries. Active thrusts within these belts individually contribute to regional seismic hazard, but further investigation is needed regarding the possibility of multi-fault rupture in a single event. Past analyses of historic thrust surface traces suggest that rupture within a single event can jump up to 12 km. There is also observational precedent for long distance triggering between subparallel thrusts (e.g. the 1997 Harnai, Pakistan events, separated by 50 km). However, previous modeling studies find a maximum jumping rupture distance between thrust faults of merely 200 m. Here, we present a new dynamic rupture modeling parameter study that attempts to reconcile these differences and determine which geometrical and stress conditions promote jumping rupture. We use a community verified 3D finite element method to model rupture on pairs of thrust faults with parallel surface traces. We vary stress drop and fault strength to determine which conditions produce jumping rupture at different dip angles and different separations between surface traces. This parameter study may help to understand the likelihood of jumping rupture in real-world thrust systems, and may thereby improve earthquake hazard assessment.

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models to Improve Ground Motion Estimates: ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, Geoffrey P.

2013-10-31

This project uses dynamic rupture simulations to investigate high-frequency seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations, material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g., elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, we know that natural faults are not planar, but instead have roughness that can be approximated by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3D rupture simulations that couple these processes willmore » provide guidance for constructing appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion simulations. The improved rupture models from our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations will be used to conduct physicsbased (3D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for California. These calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results, including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram catalog for thousands of scenario events and more than 5000 physics-based seismic hazard curves for California.« less

Constraining Earthquake Source Parameters in Rupture Patches and Rupture Barriers on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise from Ocean Bottom Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2015-12-01

On Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise (EPR), Mw ~6.0 earthquakes occur every ~5 years and repeatedly rupture the same asperity (rupture patch), while the intervening fault segments (rupture barriers to the largest events) only produce small earthquakes. In 2008, an ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) deployment successfully captured the end of a seismic cycle, including an extensive foreshock sequence localized within a 10 km rupture barrier, the Mw 6.0 mainshock and its aftershocks that occurred in a ~10 km rupture patch, and an earthquake swarm located in a second rupture barrier. Here we investigate whether the inferred variations in frictional behavior along strike affect the rupture processes of 3.0 < M < 4.5 earthquakes by determining source parameters for 100 earthquakes recorded during the OBS deployment.Using waveforms with a 50 Hz sample rate from OBS accelerometers, we calculate stress drop using an omega-squared source model, where the weighted average corner frequency is derived from an empirical Green's function (EGF) method. We obtain seismic moment by fitting the omega-squared source model to the low frequency amplitude of individual spectra and account for attenuation using Q obtained from a velocity model through the foreshock zone. To ensure well-constrained corner frequencies, we require that the Brune [1970] model provides a statistically better fit to each spectral ratio than a linear model and that the variance is low between the data and model. To further ensure that the fit to the corner frequency is not influenced by resonance of the OBSs, we require a low variance close to the modeled corner frequency. Error bars on corner frequency were obtained through a grid search method where variance is within 10% of the best-fit value. Without imposing restrictive selection criteria, slight variations in corner frequencies from rupture patches and rupture barriers are not discernable. Using well-constrained source parameters, we find an average stress drop of 5.7 MPa in the aftershock zone compared to values of 2.4 and 2.9 MPa in the foreshock and swarm zones respectively. The higher stress drops in the rupture patch compared to the rupture barriers reflect systematic differences in along strike fault zone properties on Gofar transform fault.

Three-dimensional curved grid finite-difference modelling for non-planar rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhenguo; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Xiaofei

2014-11-01

In this study, we present a new method for simulating the 3-D dynamic rupture process occurring on a non-planar fault. The method is based on the curved-grid finite-difference method (CG-FDM) proposed by Zhang & Chen and Zhang et al. to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in media with arbitrary irregular surface topography. While keeping the advantages of conventional FDM, that is computational efficiency and easy implementation, the CG-FDM also is flexible in modelling the complex fault model by using general curvilinear grids, and thus is able to model the rupture dynamics of a fault with complex geometry, such as oblique dipping fault, non-planar fault, fault with step-over, fault branching, even if irregular topography exists. The accuracy and robustness of this new method have been validated by comparing with the previous results of Day et al., and benchmarks for rupture dynamics simulations. Finally, two simulations of rupture dynamics with complex fault geometry, that is a non-planar fault and a fault rupturing a free surface with topography, are presented. A very interesting phenomenon was observed that topography can weaken the tendency for supershear transition to occur when rupture breaks out at a free surface. Undoubtedly, this new method provides an effective, at least an alternative, tool to simulate the rupture dynamics of a complex non-planar fault, and can be applied to model the rupture dynamics of a real earthquake with complex geometry.

Rupture directivity of microseismic events recorded during hydraulic fracture stimulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbancic, T.; Smith-Boughner, L.; Baig, A.; Viegas, G.

2016-12-01

We model the dynamics of a complex rupture sequence with four sub-events. These events were recorded during hydraulic fracture stimulations in a gas-bearing shale formation. With force-balance accelerometers, 4.5Hz and 15Hz instruments recording the failure history, we study the directivity of the entire rupture sequence and each sub-event. Two models are considered: unilateral and bi-lateral failures of penny shaped cracks. From the seismic moment tensors of these sub-events, we consider different potential failure planes and rupture directions. Using numerical wave-propagation codes, we generate synthetic rupture sequences with both unilateral and bi-lateral ruptures. These are compared to the four sub-events to determine the directionality of the observed failures and the sensitivity of our recording bandwidth and geometry to distinguishing between different rupture processes. The frequency of unilateral and bilateral rupture processes throughout the fracture stimulation is estimated by comparing the directivity characteristics of the modeled sub-events to other high-quality microseismic events recorded during the same stimulation program. Understanding the failure processes of these microseismic events can provide great insight into the changes in the rock mass responsible for these complex rupture processes.

Rupture process of the 2009 L'Aquila, central Italy, earthquake, from the separate and joint inversion of Strong Motion, GPS and DInSAR data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirella, A.; Piatanesi, A.; Tinti, E.; Chini, M.; Cocco, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigate the rupture history of the April 6th 2009 (Mw 6.1) L'Aquila normal faulting earthquake by using a nonlinear inversion of strong motion, GPS and DInSAR data. We use a two-stage non-linear inversion technique. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the ensemble providing us the best-fitting model, the average model, the associated standard deviation and coefficient of variation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. The application to the 2009 L'Aquila main-shock shows that both the separate and joint inversion solutions reveal a complex rupture process and a heterogeneous slip distribution. Slip is concentrated in two main asperities: a smaller shallow patch of slip located up-dip from the hypocenter and a second deeper and larger asperity located southeastward along strike direction. The key feature of the source process emerging from our inverted models concerns the rupture history, which is characterized by two distinct stages. The first stage begins with rupture initiation and with a modest moment release lasting nearly 0.9 seconds, which is followed by a sharp increase in slip velocity and rupture speed located 2 km up-dip from the nucleation. During this first stage the rupture front propagated up-dip from the hypocenter at relatively high (˜ 4.0 km/s), but still sub-shear, rupture velocity. The second stage starts nearly 2 seconds after nucleation and it is characterized by the along strike rupture propagation. The largest and deeper asperity fails during this stage of the rupture process. The rupture velocity is larger in the up-dip than in the along-strike direction. The up-dip and along-strike rupture propagation are separated in time and associated with a Mode II and a Mode III crack, respectively. Our results show that the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake featured a very complex rupture, with strong spatial and temporal heterogeneities suggesting a strong frictional and/or structural control of the rupture process.

Creep-rupture of polymer-matrix composites. [graphite-epoxy laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.; Griffith, W. I.; Morris, D. H.

1980-01-01

An accelerated characterization method for resin matrix composites is reviewed. Methods for determining modulus and strength master curves are given. Creep rupture analytical models are discussed as applied to polymers and polymer matrix composites. Comparisons between creep rupture experiments and analytical models are presented. The time dependent creep rupture process in graphite epoxy laminates is examined as a function of temperature and stress level.

A crack-like rupture model for the 19 September 1985 Michoacan, Mexico, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruppert, Stanley D.; Yomogida, Kiyoshi

1992-09-01

Evidence supporting a smooth crack-like rupture process of the Michoacan earthquake of 1985 is obtained from a major earthquake for the first time. Digital strong motion data from three stations (Caleta de Campos, La Villita, and La Union), recording near-field radiation from the fault, show unusually simple ramped displacements and permanent offsets previously only seen in theoretical models. The recording of low frequency (0 to 1 Hz) near-field waves together with the apparently smooth rupture favors a crack-like model to a step or Haskell-type dislocation model under the constraint of the slip distribution obtained by previous studies. A crack-like rupture, characterized by an approximated dynamic slip function and systematic decrease in slip duration away from the point of rupture nucleation, produces the best fit to the simple ramped displacements observed. Spatially varying rupture duration controls several important aspects of the synthetic seismograms, including the variation in displacement rise times between components of motion observed at Caleta de Campos. Ground motion observed at Caleta de Campos can be explained remarkably well with a smoothly propagating crack model. However, data from La Villita and La Union suggest a more complex rupture process than the simple crack-like model for the south-eastern portion of the fault.

Analysis of the variability in ground-motion synthesis and inversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul A.; Cirella, Antonella; Scognamiglio, Laura; Tinti, Elisa

2017-12-07

In almost all past inversions of large-earthquake ground motions for rupture behavior, the goal of the inversion is to find the “best fitting” rupture model that predicts ground motions which optimize some function of the difference between predicted and observed ground motions. This type of inversion was pioneered in the linear-inverse sense by Olson and Apsel (1982), who minimized the square of the difference between observed and simulated motions (“least squares”) while simultaneously minimizing the rupture-model norm (by setting the null-space component of the rupture model to zero), and has been extended in many ways, one of which is the use of nonlinear inversion schemes such as simulated annealing algorithms that optimize some other misfit function. For example, the simulated annealing algorithm of Piatanesi and others (2007) finds the rupture model that minimizes a “cost” function which combines a least-squares and a waveform-correlation measure of misfit.All such inversions that look for a unique “best” model have at least three problems. (1) They have removed the null-space component of the rupture model—that is, an infinite family of rupture models that all fit the data equally well have been narrowed down to a single model. Some property of interest in the rupture model might have been discarded in this winnowing process. (2) Smoothing constraints are commonly used to yield a unique “best” model, in which case spatially rough rupture models will have been discarded, even if they provide a good fit to the data. (3) No estimate of confidence in the resulting rupture models can be given because the effects of unknown errors in the Green’s functions (“theory errors”) have not been assessed. In inversion for rupture behavior, these theory errors are generally larger than the data errors caused by ground noise and instrumental limitations, and so overfitting of the data is probably ubiquitous for such inversions.Recently, attention has turned to the inclusion of theory errors in the inversion process. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) made an important contribution by presenting a method to estimate the uncertainties in predicted large-earthquake ground motions due to uncertainties in the Green’s functions. Here we derive their result and compare it with the results of other recent studies that look at theory errors in a Bayesian inversion context particularly those by Bodin and others (2012), Duputel and others (2012), Dettmer and others (2014), and Minson and others (2014).Notably, in all these studies, the estimates of theory error were obtained from theoretical considerations alone; none of the investigators actually measured Green’s function errors. Large earthquakes typically have aftershocks, which, if their rupture surfaces are physically small enough, can be considered point evaluations of the real Green’s functions of the Earth. Here we simulate smallaftershock ground motions with (erroneous) theoretical Green’s functions. Taking differences between aftershock ground motions and simulated motions to be the “theory error,” we derive a statistical model of the sources of discrepancies between the theoretical and real Green’s functions. We use this model with an extended frequency-domain version of the time-domain theory of Yagi and Fukahata (2011) to determine the expected variance 2 τ caused by Green’s function error in ground motions from a larger (nonpoint) earthquake that we seek to model.We also differ from the above-mentioned Bayesian inversions in our handling of the nonuniqueness problem of seismic inversion. We follow the philosophy of Segall and Du (1993), who, instead of looking for a best-fitting model, looked for slip models that answered specific questions about the earthquakes they studied. In their Bayesian inversions, they inductively derived a posterior probability-density function (PDF) for every model parameter. We instead seek to find two extremal rupture models whose ground motions fit the data within the error bounds given by 2 τ , as quantified by using a chi-squared test described below. So, we can ask questions such as, “What are the rupture models with the highest and lowest average rupture speed consistent with the theory errors?” Having found those models, we can then say with confidence that the true rupture speed is somewhere between those values. Although the Bayesian approach gives a complete solution to the inverse problem, it is computationally demanding: Minson and others (2014) needed 1010 forward kinematic simulations to derive their posterior probability distribution. In our approach, only about107 simulations are needed. Moreover, in practical application, only a small set of rupture models may be needed to answer the relevant questions—for example, determining the maximum likelihood solution (achievable through standard inversion techniques) and the two rupture models bounding some property of interest.The specific property that we wish to investigate is the correlation between various rupturemodel parameters, such as peak slip velocity and rupture velocity, in models of real earthquakes. In some simulations of ground motions for hypothetical large earthquakes, such as those by Aagaard and others (2010) and the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Simulation Platform (Graves and Pitarka, 2015), rupture speed is assumed to correlate locally with peak slip, although there is evidence that rupture speed should correlate better with peak slip speed, owing to its dependence on local stress drop. We may be able to determine ways to modify Piatanesi and others’s (2007) inversion’s “cost” function to find rupture models with either high or low degrees of correlation between pairs of rupture parameters. We propose a cost function designed to find these two extremal models.

Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop.

PubMed

Galis, Martin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Mai, P Martin; Cappa, Frédéric

2017-12-01

Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures.

Characterize kinematic rupture history of large earthquakes with Multiple Haskell sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Z.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes are often regarded as continuous rupture along a single fault, but the occurrence of complex large events involving multiple faults and dynamic triggering challenges this view. Such rupture complexities cause difficulties in existing finite fault inversion algorithms, because they rely on specific parameterizations and regularizations to obtain physically meaningful solutions. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess reliability and uncertainty of obtained rupture models. Here we develop a Multi-Haskell Source (MHS) method to estimate rupture process of large earthquakes as a series of sub-events of varying location, timing and directivity. Each sub-event is characterized by a Haskell rupture model with uniform dislocation and constant unilateral rupture velocity. This flexible yet simple source parameterization allows us to constrain first-order rupture complexity of large earthquakes robustly. Additionally, relatively few parameters in the inverse problem yields improved uncertainty analysis based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework. Synthetic tests and application of MHS method on real earthquakes show that our method can capture major features of large earthquake rupture process, and provide information for more detailed rupture history analysis.

Dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake: Comparison with a geodetic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kyriakopoulos, Christos; Oglesby, David D.; Funning, Gareth J.; Ryan, Kenneth

2017-01-01

The 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is the largest event recorded in the broader Southern California-Baja California region in the last 18 years. Here we try to analyze primary features of this type of event by using dynamic rupture simulations based on a multifault interface and later compare our results with space geodetic models. Our results show that starting from homogeneous prestress conditions, slip heterogeneity can be achieved as a result of variable dip angle along strike and the modulation imposed by step over segments. We also considered effects from a topographic free surface and find that although this does not produce significant first-order effects for this earthquake, even a low topographic dome such as the Cucapah range can affect the rupture front pattern and fault slip rate. Finally, we inverted available interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, using the same geometry as the dynamic rupture model, and retrieved the space geodetic slip distribution that serves to constrain the dynamic rupture models. The one to one comparison of the final fault slip pattern generated with dynamic rupture models and the space geodetic inversion show good agreement. Our results lead us to the following conclusion: in a possible multifault rupture scenario, and if we have first-order geometry constraints, dynamic rupture models can be very efficient in predicting large-scale slip heterogeneities that are important for the correct assessment of seismic hazard and the magnitude of future events. Our work contributes to understanding the complex nature of multifault systems.

New constraints on the rupture process of the 1999 August 17 Izmit earthquake deduced from estimates of stress glut rate moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clévédé, E.; Bouin, M.-P.; Bukchin, B.; Mostinskiy, A.; Patau, G.

2004-12-01

This paper illustrates the use of integral estimates given by the stress glut rate moments of total degree 2 for constraining the rupture scenario of a large earthquake in the particular case of the 1999 Izmit mainshock. We determine the integral estimates of the geometry, source duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut rate moments of total degree 2 by inverting long-period surface wave (LPSW) amplitude spectra. Kinematic and static models of the Izmit earthquake published in the literature are quite different from one another. In order to extract the characteristic features of this event, we calculate the same integral estimates directly from those models and compare them with those deduced from our inversion. While the equivalent rupture zone and the eastward directivity are consistent among all models, the LPSW solution displays a strong unilateral character of the rupture associated with a short rupture duration that is not compatible with the solutions deduced from the published models. With the aim of understand this discrepancy, we use simple equivalent kinematic models to reproduce the integral estimates of the considered rupture processes (including ours) by adjusting a few free parameters controlling the western and eastern parts of the rupture. We show that the joint analysis of the LPSW solution and source tomographies allows us to elucidate the scattering of source processes published for this earthquake and to discriminate between the models. Our results strongly suggest that (1) there was significant moment released on the eastern segment of the activated fault system during the Izmit earthquake; (2) the apparent rupture velocity decreases on this segment.

Probabilistic seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay area based on a simplified viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.; Schwartz, D.P.

2008-01-01

We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate boundary deformation that includes the effect of time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle model. This simple formulation allows construction of stress evolution at all points in the plate boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at representative points on the fault segments to estimate the times of their respective future ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture peridocities, slip distributions, time of last earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that fature rupture probabilities of area faults in the coming decades are the highest for the southern Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to that of Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single model should be used to assess to time-dependent rupture probabilities. We suggest that several models, including the present one, be used in a comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

The Inclusion of Arbitrary Load Histories in the Strength Decay Model for Stress Rupture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2014-01-01

Stress rupture is a failure mechanism where failures can occur after a period of time, even though the material has seen no increase in load. Carbon/epoxy composite materials have demonstrated the stress rupture failure mechanism. In a previous work, a model was proposed for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures based on strength degradation. However, the original model was limited to constant load periods (holds) at constant load. The model was expanded in this paper to address arbitrary loading histories and specifically the inclusions of ramp loadings up to holds and back down. The broadening of the model allows for failures on loading to be treated as any other failure that may occur during testing instead of having to be treated as a special case. The inclusion of ramps can also influence the length of the "safe period" following proof loading that was previously predicted by the model. No stress rupture failures are predicted in a safe period because time is required for strength to decay from above the proof level to the lower level of loading. Although the model can predict failures during the ramp periods, no closed-form solution for the failure times could be derived. Therefore, two suggested solution techniques were proposed. Finally, the model was used to design an experiment that could detect the difference between the strength decay model and a commonly used model for stress rupture. Although these types of models are necessary to help guide experiments for stress rupture, only experimental evidence will determine how well the model may predict actual material response. If the model can be shown to be accurate, current proof loading requirements may result in predicted safe periods as long as 10(13) years. COPVs design requirements for stress rupture may then be relaxed, allowing more efficient designs, while still maintaining an acceptable level of safety.

Nankai-Tokai subduction hazard for catastrophe risk modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spurr, D. D.

2010-12-01

The historical record of Nankai subduction zone earthquakes includes nine event sequences over the last 1300 years. Typical characteristic behaviour is evident, with segments rupturing either co-seismically or as two large earthquakes less than 3 yrs apart (active phase), followed by periods of low seismicity lasting 90 - 150 yrs or more. Despite the long historical record, the recurrence behaviour and consequent seismic hazard remain uncertain and controversial. In 2005 the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) published models for hundreds of faults as part of an official Japanese seismic hazard map. The HERP models have been widely adopted in part or full both within Japan and by the main international catastrophe risk model companies. The time-dependent recurrence modelling we adopt for the Nankai faults departs considerably from HERP in three main areas: ■ A “Linked System” (LS) source model is used to simulate the strong correlation between segment ruptures evident in the historical record, whereas the HERP recurrence estimates assume the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai segments rupture independently. The LS component models all historical events with a common rupture recurrence cycle for the three segments. System rupture probabilities are calculated assuming BPT behaviour and parameter uncertainties assessed from the full 1300 yr historical record. ■ An independent, “Tokai Only” (TO) rupture source is used specifically to model potential “Tokai only” earthquakes. There are widely diverging views on the possibility of this segment rupturing independently. Although all historical Tokai ruptures appear to have been composite Tonankai -Tokai earthquakes, the available data do not preclude the possibility of future “Tokai only” events. The HERP model also includes “Tokai only” earthquakes but the recurrence parameters are based on historical composite Tonankai -Tokai ruptures and do not appear to recognise the complex tectonic environment in the Tokai area. ■ For the Nankai and Tonankai segments only, HERP assumed Time-Predictable (TP) recurrence behaviour. The resulting calculated 30 and 50 year rupture probabilities are considerably higher than standard renewal model estimates as used in the adopted model. While perhaps more contentious, the weight of evidence available does not appear to be consistent with TP behaviour. For the adopted modelling the estimated probabilities of no Nankai segment rupture within the next 30 & 50 years are 56% & 27% respectively. The disparity between the models is highlighted by the much lower estimates obtained by HERP (2.5% & 0.039% respectively as at 2006). Even for just the Nankai and Tonankai segments (ie. ignoring Tokai), HERP estimated only 1.7% probability of no rupture in 50yrs. These estimates can be contrasted with the fact that in 2056 (50 yrs from 2006), the elapsed time since the start of the last rupture cycle (112yrs) will still be 5 yrs short of the historical mean recurrence interval since 1360. Net effects on nation-wide catastrophe risk estimates for all earthquake sources depend on modelled exposure distributions but can be as much as a factor of two. The differences are important as they impact on multi-billion dollar international risk transfer programs.

Pulsed strain release on the Altyn Tagh fault, northwest China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gold, Ryan D.; Cowgill, Eric; Arrowsmith, J. Ramón; Friedrich, Anke M.

2017-01-01

Earthquake recurrence models assume that major surface-rupturing earthquakes are followed by periods of reduced rupture probability as stress rebuilds. Although purely periodic, time- or slip-predictable rupture models are known to be oversimplifications, a paucity of long records of fault slip clouds understanding of fault behavior and earthquake recurrence over multiple ruptures. Here, we report a 16 kyr history of fault slip—including a pulse of accelerated slip from 6.4 to 6.0 ka—determined using a Monte Carlo analysis of well-dated offset landforms along the central Altyn Tagh strike-slip fault (ATF) in northwest China. This pulse punctuates a median rate of 8.1+1.2/−0.9 mm/a and likely resulted from either a flurry of temporally clustered ∼Mw 7.5 ground-rupturing earthquakes or a single large >Mw 8.2 earthquake. The clustered earthquake scenario implies rapid re-rupture of a fault reach >195 km long and indicates decoupled rates of elastic strain energy accumulation versus dissipation, conceptualized as a crustal stress battery. If the pulse reflects a single event, slip-magnitude scaling implies that it ruptured much of the ATF with slip similar to, or exceeding, the largest documented historical ruptures. Both scenarios indicate fault rupture behavior that deviates from classic time- or slip-predictable models.

Interseismic Coupling-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Scenarios for the Nankai Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranes, H.; Woodruff, J. D.; Loveless, J. P.; Hyodo, M.

2018-04-01

Theoretical modeling and investigations of recent subduction zone earthquakes show that geodetic estimates of interseismic coupling and the spatial distribution of coseismic rupture are correlated. However, the utility of contemporary coupling in guiding construction of rupture scenarios has not been evaluated on the world's most hazardous faults. Here we demonstrate methods for scaling coupling to slip to create rupture models for southwestern Japan's Nankai Trough. Results show that coupling-based models produce distributions of ground surface deformation and tsunami inundation that are similar to historical and geologic records of the largest known Nankai earthquake in CE 1707 and to an independent, quasi-dynamic rupture model. Notably, these models and records all support focused subsidence around western Shikoku that makes the region particularly vulnerable to flooding. Results imply that contemporary coupling mirrors the slip distribution of a full-margin, 1707-type rupture, and Global Positioning System measurements of surface motion are connected with the trough's physical characteristics.

Attempting to bridge the gap between laboratory and seismic estimates of fracture energy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Beeler, N.M.

2004-01-01

To investigate the behavior of the fracture energy associated with expanding the rupture zone of an earthquake, we have used the results of a large-scale, biaxial stick-slip friction experiment to set the parameters of an equivalent dynamic rupture model. This model is determined by matching the fault slip, the static stress drop and the apparent stress. After confirming that the fracture energy associated with this model earthquake is in reasonable agreement with corresponding laboratory values, we can use it to determine fracture energies for earthquakes as functions of stress drop, rupture velocity and fault slip. If we take account of the state of stress at seismogenic depths, the model extrapolation to larger fault slips yields fracture energies that agree with independent estimates by others based on dynamic rupture models for large earthquakes. For fixed stress drop and rupture speed, the fracture energy scales linearly with fault slip.

The 2014 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.

2015-01-01

The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.

An Experimental and Numerical Comparison of the Rupture Locations of an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

PubMed Central

Doyle, Barry J.; Corbett, Timothy J.; Callanan, Anthony; Walsh, Michael T.; Vorp, David A.; McGloughlin, Timothy M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: To identify the rupture locations of idealized physical models of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) using an in-vitro setup and to compare the findings to those predicted numerically. Methods: Five idealized AAAs were manufactured using Sylgard 184 silicone rubber, which had been mechanically characterized from tensile tests, tear tests, and finite element analysis. The models were then inflated to the point of rupture and recorded using a high-speed camera. Numerical modeling attempted to confirm these rupture locations. Regional variations in wall thickness of the silicone models was also quantified and applied to numerical models. Results: Four of the 5 models tested ruptured at inflection points in the proximal and distal regions of the aneurysm sac and not at regions of maximum diameter. These findings agree with high stress regions computed numerically. Wall stress appears to be independent of wall thickness, with high stress occurring at regions of inflection regardless of wall thickness variations. Conclusion: According to these experimental and numerical findings, AAAs experience higher stresses at regions of inflection compared to regions of maximum diameter. Ruptures of the idealized silicone models occurred predominantly at the inflection points, as numerically predicted. Regions of inflection can be easily identified from basic 3-dimensional reconstruction; as ruptures appear to occur at inflection points, these findings may provide a useful insight into the clinical significance of inflection regions. This approach will be applied to patient-specific models in a future study. PMID:19642790

Increased 18F-FDG Uptake Is Predictive of Rupture in a Novel Rat Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Rupture Model

PubMed Central

English, Sean J.; Piert, Morand R.; Diaz, Jose A.; Gordon, David; Ghosh, Abhijit; D'Alecy, Louis G.; Whitesall, Steven E.; Sharma, Ashish K.; DeRoo, Elise P.; Watt, Tessa; Su, Gang; Henke, Peter K.; Eliason, Jonathan L.; Ailawadi, Gorav; Upchurch, Gilbert R.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine whether 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) micro–positron emission tomography (micro-PET) can predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture. Background An infrarenal AAA model is needed to study inflammatory mechanisms that drive rupture. 18F-FDG PET can detect vascular inflammation in animal models and patients. Methods After exposing Sprague-Dawley rats to intra-aortic porcine pancreatic elastase (PPE) (12 U/mL), AAA rupture was induced by daily, subcutaneous, β-aminopropionitrile (BAPN, 300 mg/kg, N = 24) administration. Negative control AAA animals (N = 15) underwent daily saline subcutaneous injection after PPE exposure. BAPN-exposed animals that did not rupture served as positive controls [nonruptured AAA (NRAAA) 14d, N = 9]. Rupture was witnessed using radiotelemetry. Maximum standard uptakes for 18F-FDG micro-PET studies were determined. Aortic wall PAI-1, uPA, and tPA concentrations were determined by western blot analyses. Interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-10, and MIP-2 were determined by Bio-Plex bead array. Neutrophil and macrophage populations per high-power field were quantified. Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activities were determined by zymography. Results When comparing ruptured AAA (RAAA) to NRAAA 14d animals, increased focal 18F-FDG uptakes were detected at subsequent sites of rupture (P = 0.03). PAI-1 expression was significantly less in RAAA tissue (P = 0.01), with comparable uPA and decreased tPA levels (P = 0.02). IL-1β (P = 0.04), IL-6 (P = 0.001), IL-10 (P = 0.04), and MIP-2 (P = 0.02)expression, neutrophil (P = 0.02) and macrophage presence (P = 0.002), and MMP9 (P < 0.0001) activity were increased in RAAA tissue. Conclusions With this AAA rupture model, increased prerupture 18F-FDG uptake on micro-PET imaging was associated with increased inflammation in the ruptured AAA wall. 18F-FDG PET imaging may be used to monitor inflammatory changes before AAA rupture. PMID:24651130

Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop

PubMed Central

Galis, Martin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Mai, P. Martin; Cappa, Frédéric

2017-01-01

Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures. PMID:29291250

Rupture Propagation for Stochastic Fault Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favreau, P.; Lavallee, D.; Archuleta, R.

2003-12-01

The inversion of strong motion data of large earhquakes give the spatial distribution of pre-stress on the ruptured faults and it can be partially reproduced by stochastic models, but a fundamental question remains: how rupture propagates, constrained by the presence of spatial heterogeneity? For this purpose we investigate how the underlying random variables, that control the pre-stress spatial variability, condition the propagation of the rupture. Two stochastic models of prestress distributions are considered, respectively based on Cauchy and Gaussian random variables. The parameters of the two stochastic models have values corresponding to the slip distribution of the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. We use a finite difference code to simulate the spontaneous propagation of shear rupture on a flat fault in a 3D continuum elastic body. The friction law is the slip dependent friction law. The simulations show that the propagation of the rupture front is more complex, incoherent or snake-like for a prestress distribution based on Cauchy random variables. This may be related to the presence of a higher number of asperities in this case. These simulations suggest that directivity is stronger in the Cauchy scenario, compared to the smoother rupture of the Gauss scenario.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Constraints on the rupture process of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouin, M.-P.; Clévédé, E.; Bukchin, B.; Mostinski, A.; Patau, G.

2003-04-01

Kinematic and static models of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake published in the literature are quite different from one to each other. In order to extract the characteristic features of this event, we determine the integral estimates of the geometry, source duration and rupture propagation of this event. Those estimates are given by the stress glut moments of total degree 2 inverting long period surface wave (LPSW) amplitude spectra (Bukchin, 1995). We draw comparisons with the integral estimates deduced from kinematic models obtained by inversion of strong motion data set and/or teleseismic body wave (Bouchon et al, 2002; Delouis et al., 2000; Yagi and Kukuchi, 2000; Sekiguchi and Iwata, 2002). While the equivalent rupture zone and the eastward directivity are consistent among all models, the LPSW solution displays a strong unilateral character of the rupture associated with a short rupture duration that is not compatible with the solutions deduced from the published models. Using a simple equivalent kinematic model, we reproduce the integral estimates of the rupture process by adjusting a few free parameters controlling the western and eastern parts of the rupture. We show that the LPSW solution strongly suggest that: - There was significant moment released on the eastern segment of the activated fault system during the Izmit earthquake; - The rupture velocity decreases on this segment. We will discuss how these results allow to enlighten the scattering of source process published for this earthquake.

Multi-Fault Rupture Scenarios in the Brawley Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Rockwell, T. K.; Meltzner, A. J.; Barall, M.

2017-12-01

Dynamic rupture complexity is strongly affected by both the geometric configuration of a network of faults and pre-stress conditions. Between those two, the geometric configuration is more likely to be anticipated prior to an event. An important factor in the unpredictability of the final rupture pattern of a group of faults is the time-dependent interaction between them. Dynamic rupture models provide a means to investigate this otherwise inscrutable processes. The Brawley Seismic Zone in Southern California is an area in which this approach might be important for inferring potential earthquake sizes and rupture patterns. Dynamic modeling can illuminate how the main faults in this area, the Southern San Andreas (SSAF) and Imperial faults, might interact with the intersecting cross faults, and how the cross faults may modulate rupture on the main faults. We perform 3D finite element modeling of potential earthquakes in this zone assuming an extended array of faults (Figure). Our results include a wide range of ruptures and fault behaviors depending on assumptions about nucleation location, geometric setup, pre-stress conditions, and locking depth. For example, in the majority of our models the cross faults do not strongly participate in the rupture process, giving the impression that they are not typically an aid or an obstacle to the rupture propagation. However, in some cases, particularly when rupture proceeds slowly on the main faults, the cross faults indeed can participate with significant slip, and can even cause rupture termination on one of the main faults. Furthermore, in a complex network of faults we should not preclude the possibility of a large event nucleating on a smaller fault (e.g. a cross fault) and eventually promoting rupture on the main structure. Recent examples include the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) and Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes, where rupture started on a smaller adjacent segment and later cascaded into a larger event. For that reason, we are investigating scenarios of a moderate rupture on a cross fault, and determining conditions under which the rupture will propagate onto the adjacent SSAF. Our investigation will provide fundamental insights that may help us interpret faulting behaviors in other areas, such as the complex Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake.

Rupture Propagation Imaging of Fluid Induced Events at the Basel EGS Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folesky, Jonas; Kummerow, Jörn; Shapiro, Serge A.

2014-05-01

The analysis of rupture properties using rupture propagation imaging techniques is a fast developing field of research in global seismology. Usually rupture fronts of large to megathrust earthquakes are subject of recent studies, like e.g. the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake or the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The back projection technique is the most prominent technique in this field. Here the seismograms recorded at an array or at a seismic network are back shifted to a grid of possible source locations via a special stacking procedure. This can provide information on the energy release and energy distribution of the rupture which then can be used to find estimates of event properties like location, rupture direction, rupture speed or length. The procedure is fast and direct and it only relies on a reasonable velocity model. Thus it is a good way to rapidly estimate the rupture properties and it can be used to confirm independently achieved event information. We adopted the back projection technique and put it in a microseismic context. We demonstrated its usage for multiple synthetic ruptures within a reservoir model of microseismic scale in earlier works. Our motivation hereby is the occurrence of relatively large, induced seismic events at a number of stimulated geothermal reservoirs or waste disposal sites, having magnitudes ML ≥ 3.4 and yielding rupture lengths of several hundred meters. We use the configuration of the seismic network and reservoir properties of the Basel Geothermal Site to build a synthetic model of a rupture by modeling the wave field of multiple spatio-temporal separated single sources using Finite-Difference modeling. The focus of this work is the application of the Back Projection technique and the demonstration of its feasibility to retrieve the rupture properties of real fluid induced events. We take four microseismic events with magnitudes from ML 3.1 to 3.4 and reconstruct source parameters like location, orientation and length. By comparison with our synthetic results as well as independent localization studies and source mechanism studies in this area we can show, that the obtained results are reasonable and that the application of back projection imaging is not only possible for microseismic datasets of respective quality, but that it provides important additional insights in the rupture process.

A Benchmarking setup for Coupled Earthquake Cycle - Dynamic Rupture - Tsunami Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Joern; Bader, Michael; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris

2017-04-01

We developed a simulation framework for coupled physics-based earthquake rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation on a simplified subduction zone system for the project "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events" (ASCETE, funded by the Volkswagen Foundation). Here, we present a benchmarking setup that can be used for complex rupture models. The workflow begins with a 2D seismo-thermo-mechanical earthquake cycle model representing long term deformation along a planar, shallowly dipping subduction zone interface. Slip instabilities that approximate earthquakes arise spontaneously along the subduction zone interface in this model. The absolute stress field and material properties for a single slip event are used as initial conditions for a dynamic earthquake rupture model.The rupture simulation is performed with SeisSol, which uses an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization scheme with an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. The seafloor displacements resulting from this rupture are transferred to the tsunami model with a simple coastal run-up profile. An adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme subsequently allows for an accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast. This workflow allows for evaluation of how the rupture behavior affects the hydrodynamic wave propagation and coastal inundation. We present coupled results for differing earthquake scenarios. Examples include megathrust only ruptures versus ruptures with splay fault branching off the megathrust near the surface. Coupling to the tsunami simulation component is performed either dynamically (time dependent) or statically, resulting in differing tsunami wave and inundation behavior. The simplified topographical setup allows for systematic parameter studies and reproducible physical studies.

Systematic observations of the slip pulse properties of large earthquake ruptures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melgar, Diego; Hayes, Gavin

2017-01-01

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of faults and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture; however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M7–M9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Further, we find that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at ~15 s) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

Finite element model of size, shape and blood pressure on rupture of intracranial saccular aneurysms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rica Nabong, Jennica; David, Guido

2017-10-01

Rupture of intracranial saccular aneurysms is a primary concern for neurologists and patients because it leads to stroke and permanent disability. This paper examines the role of blood pressure, in connection with size of and wall thickness, in the rupture of saccular aneurysms. A bulb-shaped geometry of a saccular aneurysm is obtained from angiographic images of a patient and modeled using Finite Elements based on the principle of virtual work under the Fung stress-strain relationship. The numerical model is subjected to varying levels of systolic blood pressure. Rupture is assumed to occur when the wall stress exceeded its mechanical strength. The results show which sizes of this class of aneurysms are at high risk of rupture for varying levels of blood pressure.

Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

2015-01-01

The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of unilateral dynamic rupture propagation along very-long reverse faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, S.

2017-12-01

For some great earthquakes, dynamic rupture propagates unilaterally along a horizontal direction of very-long reverse faults (e.g., the Mw9.1 Sumatra earthquake in 2004, the Mw8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, and the Mw8.8 Maule earthquake in 2010, etc.). It seems that barriers or creeping sections may not lay along the opposite region of the co-seismically ruptured direction. In fact, in the case of Sumatra, the Mw8.6 earthquake occurred in the opposite region only three months after the mainshock. Mechanism of unilateral mode-II rupture along a material interface has been investigated theoretically and numerically. For mode-II rupture propagating along a material interface, an analytical solution implies that co-seismic stress perturbation depends on the rupture direction (Weertman, 1980 JGR; Hirano & Yamashita, 2016 BSSA), and numerical modeling of plastic yielding contributes to simulating the unilateral rupture (DeDonteny et al., 2011 JGR). However, mode-III rupture may dominate for the very-long reverse faults, and it can be shown that stress perturbation due to mode-III rupture does not depend on the rupture direction. Hence, an effect of the material interface is insufficient to understand the mechanism of unilateral rupture along the very-long reverse faults. In this study, I consider a two-dimensional bimaterial system with interfacial dynamic mode-III rupture under an obliquely pre-stressed configuration (i.e., the maximum shear direction of the background stress is inclined from the interfacial fault). First, I derived an analytical solution of regularized elastic stress field around a steady-state interfacial slip pulse using the method of Rice et al. (2005 BSSA). Then I found that the total stress, which is the sum of the background stress and co-seismic stress perturbation, depends on the rupture direction even in the mode-III case. Second, I executed a finite difference numerical simulation with a plastic yielding model of Andrews (1978 JGR; 2005 JGR) and succeeded in a simulation of unilateral rupture propagation in some parameter ranges (see figure). This unilateral rupture might be caused by energy dissipation due to the plastic yielding process that concentrates in the vicinity of only one rupture tip depending on the rupture direction.

Earthquake cycle modeling of multi-segmented faults: dynamic rupture and ground motion simulation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the simulated ground motions will be validated by comparison of simulated response spectra with recorded response spectra and with response spectra from ground motion prediction models. This research is sponsored by the Japan Nuclear Regulation Authority.

Analytic Study of Three-Dimensional Rupture Propagation in Strike-Slip Faulting with Analogue Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Pei-Chen; Chu, Sheng-Shin; Lin, Ming-Lang

2014-05-01

Strike-slip faults are high angle (or nearly vertical) fractures where the blocks have moved along strike way (nearly horizontal). Overburden soil profiles across main faults of Strike-slip faults have revealed the palm and tulip structure characteristics. McCalpin (2005) has trace rupture propagation on overburden soil surface. In this study, we used different offset of slip sandbox model profiles to study the evolution of three-dimensional rupture propagation by strike -slip faulting. In strike-slip faults model, type of rupture propagation and width of shear zone (W) are primary affecting by depth of overburden layer (H), distances of fault slip (Sy). There are few research to trace of three-dimensional rupture behavior and propagation. Therefore, in this simplified sandbox model, investigate rupture propagation and shear zone with profiles across main faults when formation are affecting by depth of overburden layer and distances of fault slip. The investigators at the model included width of shear zone, length of rupture (L), angle of rupture (θ) and space of rupture. The surface results was follow the literature that the evolution sequence of failure envelope was R-faults, P-faults and Y-faults which are parallel to the basement fault. Comparison surface and profiles structure which were curved faces and cross each other to define 3-D rupture and width of shear zone. We found that an increase in fault slip could result in a greater width of shear zone, and proposed a W/H versus Sy/H relationship. Deformation of shear zone showed a similar trend as in the literature that the increase of fault slip resulted in the increase of W, however, the increasing trend became opposite after a peak (when Sy/H was 1) value of W was reached (small than 1.5). The results showed that the W width is limited at a constant value in 3-D models by strike-slip faulting. In conclusion, this study helps evaluate the extensions of the shear zone influenced regions for strike-slip faults.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitarka, A.

In this project we developed GEN_SRF4 a computer program for generating kinematic rupture models, compatible with the SRF format, using Irikura and Miyake (2011) asperity-­based earthquake rupture model (IM2011, hereafter). IM2011, also known as Irkura’s recipe, has been widely used to model and simulate ground motion from earthquakes in Japan. An essential part of the method is its kinematic rupture generation technique, which is based on a deterministic rupture asperity modeling approach. The source model simplicity and efficiency of IM2011 at reproducing ground motion from earthquakes recorded in Japan makes it attractive to developers and users of the Southern Californiamore » Earthquake Center Broadband Platform (SCEC BB platform). Besides writing the code the objective of our study was to test the transportability of IM2011 to broadband simulation methods used by the SCEC BB platform. Here we test it using the Graves and Pitarka (2010) method, implemented in the platform. We performed broadband (0.1- -10 Hz) ground motion simulations for a M6.7 scenario earthquake using rupture models produced with both GEN_SRF4 and rupture generator of Graves and Pitarka (2016), (GP2016 hereafter). In the simulations we used the same Green’s functions, and same high frequency approach for calculating the low-­frequency and high-­frequency parts of ground motion, respectively.« less

Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi; Zhou, Shiyong

2017-07-01

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe and analyze the clustering behavior of seismicity. Instead of regarding large earthquakes as point sources, the finite-source ETAS model treats them as ruptures that extend in space. Each earthquake rupture consists of many patches, and each patch triggers its own aftershocks isotropically. We design an iterative algorithm to invert the unobserved fault geometry based on the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to analyze the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog during 1964-2014. We take six great earthquakes with magnitudes >7.5 after 1980 as finite sources and reconstruct the aftershock productivity patterns on each rupture surface. Comparing results from the point-source ETAS model, we find the following: (1) the finite-source model improves the data fitting; (2) direct aftershock productivity is heterogeneous on the rupture plane; (3) the triggering abilities of M5.4+ events are enhanced; (4) the background rate is higher in the off-fault region and lower in the on-fault region for the Tohoku earthquake, while high probabilities of direct aftershocks distribute all over the source region in the modified model; (5) the triggering abilities of five main shocks become 2-6 times higher after taking the rupture geometries into consideration; and (6) the trends of the cumulative background rate are similar in both models, indicating the same levels of detection ability for seismicity anomalies. Moreover, correlations between aftershock productivity and slip distributions imply that aftershocks within rupture faults are adjustments to coseismic stress changes due to slip heterogeneity.

Systematic Observations of the Slip-pulse Properties of Large Earthquake Ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Hayes, G. P.

2017-12-01

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of ruptures and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture, however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M7-M9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties (rise time, pulse width, and peak slip rate) of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Self similarity suggests a weak form of rupture determinism, where early on in the source process broader, higher amplitude slip pulses will distinguish between events of icnreasing magnitude. Indeed, we find by analyzing the moment rate functions that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at 15 seconds) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

Rupture Process During the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas Mexico Earthquake: Shallow Intraplate Normal Faulting by Slab Bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okuwaki, R.; Yagi, Y.

2017-12-01

A seismic source model for the Mw 8.1 2017 Chiapas, Mexico, earthquake was constructed by kinematic waveform inversion using globally observed teleseismic waveforms, suggesting that the earthquake was a normal-faulting event on a steeply dipping plane, with the major slip concentrated around a relatively shallow depth of 28 km. The modeled rupture evolution showed unilateral, downdip propagation northwestward from the hypocenter, and the downdip width of the main rupture was restricted to less than 30 km below the slab interface, suggesting that the downdip extensional stresses due to the slab bending were the primary cause of the earthquake. The rupture front abruptly decelerated at the northwestern end of the main rupture where it intersected the subducting Tehuantepec Fracture Zone, suggesting that the fracture zone may have inhibited further rupture propagation.

Directly Estimating Earthquake Rupture Area using Second Moments to Reduce the Uncertainty in Stress Drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Kaneko, Yoshihiro

2018-06-01

The key kinematic earthquake source parameters: rupture velocity, duration and area, shed light on earthquake dynamics, provide direct constraints on stress-drop, and have implications for seismic hazard. However, for moderate and small earthquakes, these parameters are usually poorly constrained due to limitations of the standard analysis methods. Numerical experiments by Kaneko and Shearer [2014,2015] demonstrated that standard spectral fitting techniques can lead to roughly 1 order of magnitude variation in stress-drop estimates that do not reflect the actual rupture properties even for simple crack models. We utilize these models to explore an alternative approach where we estimate the rupture area directly. For the suite of models, the area averaged static stress drop is nearly constant for models with the same underlying friction law, yet corner frequency based stress-drop estimates vary by a factor of 5-10 even for noise free data. Alternatively, we simulated inversions for the rupture area as parameterized by the second moments of the slip distribution. A natural estimate for the rupture area derived from the second moments is A=πLcWc, where Lc and Wc are the characteristic rupture length and width. This definition yields estimates of stress drop that vary by only 10% between the models but are slightly larger than the true area-averaged values. We simulate inversions for the second moments for the various models and find that the area can be estimated well when there are at least 15 available measurements of apparent duration at a variety of take-off angles. The improvement compared to azimuthally-averaged corner-frequency based approaches results from the second moments accounting for directivity and removing the assumption of a circular rupture area, both of which bias the standard approach. We also develop a new method that determines the minimum and maximum values of rupture area that are consistent with a particular dataset at the 95% confidence level. For the Kaneko and Shearer models with 20+ randomly distributed observations and ˜10% noise levels, we find that the maximum and minimum bounds on rupture area typically vary by a factor of two and that the minimum stress drop is often more tightly constrained than the maximum.

How does damage affect rupture propagation across a fault stepover?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.

2011-12-01

We investigate the potential for fault damage to influence earthquake rupture at fault step-overs using a mechanical numerical model that explicitly includes the generation of cracks around faults. We compare the off-fault fracture patterns and slip profiles generated along faults with a variety of frictional slip-weakening distances and step-over geometry. Models with greater damage facilitate the transfer of slip to the second fault. Increasing separation and decreasing the overlap distance reduces the transfer of slip across the step over. This is consistent with observations of rupture stopping at step-over separation greater than 4 km (Wesnousky, 2006). In cases of slip transfer, rupture is often passed to the second fault before the damage zone cracks of the first fault reach the second fault. This implies that stresses from the damage fracture tips are transmitted elastically to the second fault to trigger the onset of slip along the second fault. Consequently, the growth of damage facilitates transfer of rupture from one fault to another across the step-over. In addition, the rupture propagates along the damage-producing fault faster than along the rougher fault that does not produce damage. While this result seems counter to our understanding that damage slows rupture propagation, which is documented in our models with pre-existing damage, these model results are suggesting an additional process. The slip along the newly created damage may unclamp portions of the fault ahead of the rupture and promote faster rupture. We simulate the M7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake and compare the generated fracture patterns to maps of surface damage. Because along with the detailed damage pattern, we also know the stress drop during the earthquake, we may begin to constrain parameters like the slip-weakening distance along portions of the faults that ruptured in the Hector Mine earthquake.

Source complexity of the 1987 Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Iida, M.

1990-01-01

Strong motion records for the Whittier Narrows earthquake are inverted to obtain the history of slip. Both constant rupture velocity models and variable rupture velocity models are considered. The results show a complex rupture process within a relatively small source volume, with at least four separate concentrations of slip. Two sources are associated with the hypocenter, the larger having a slip of 55-90 cm, depending on the rupture model. These sources have a radius of approximately 2-3 km and are ringed by a region of reduced slip. The aftershocks fall within this low slip annulus. Other sources with slips from 40 to 70 cm each ring the central source region and the aftershock pattern. All the sources are predominantly thrust, although some minor right-lateral strike-slip motion is seen. The overall dimensions of the Whittier earthquake from the strong motion inversions is 10 km long (along the strike) and 6 km wide (down the dip). The preferred dip is 30?? and the preferred average rupture velocity is 2.5 km/s. Moment estimates range from 7.4 to 10.0 ?? 1024 dyn cm, depending on the rupture model. -Authors

Fiber Breakage Model for Carbon Composite Stress Rupture Phenomenon: Theoretical Development and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2010-01-01

Stress rupture failure of Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is of serious concern to Science Mission and Constellation programs since there are a number of COPVs on board space vehicles with stored gases under high pressure for long durations of time. It has become customary to establish the reliability of these vessels using the so called classic models. The classical models are based on Weibull statistics fitted to observed stress rupture data. These stochastic models cannot account for any additional damage due to the complex pressure-time histories characteristic of COPVs being supplied for NASA missions. In particular, it is suspected that the effects of proof test could significantly reduce the stress rupture lifetime of COPVs. The focus of this paper is to present an analytical appraisal of a model that incorporates damage due to proof test. The model examined in the current paper is based on physical mechanisms such as micromechanics based load sharing concepts coupled with creep rupture and Weibull statistics. For example, the classic model cannot accommodate for damage due to proof testing which every flight vessel undergoes. The paper compares current model to the classic model with a number of examples. In addition, several applications of the model to current ISS and Constellation program issues are also examined.

Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, V.; Hok, S.; Boiselet, A.; Bernard, P.; Scotti, O.

2017-03-01

The Corinth rift (Greece) is made of a complex network of fault segments, typically 10-20 km long separated by stepovers. Assessing the maximum magnitude possible in this region requires accounting for multisegment rupture. Here we apply numerical models of dynamic rupture to quantify the probability of a multisegment rupture in the rift, based on the knowledge of the fault geometry and on the magnitude of the historical and palaeoearthquakes. We restrict our application to dynamic rupture on the most recent and active fault network of the western rift, located on the southern coast. We first define several models, varying the main physical parameters that control the rupture propagation. We keep the regional stress field and stress drop constant, and we test several fault geometries, several positions of the faults in their seismic cycle, several values of the critical distance (and so several fracture energies) and two different hypocentres (thus testing two directivity hypothesis). We obtain different scenarios in terms of the number of ruptured segments and the final magnitude (between M = 5.8 for a single segment rupture to M = 6.4 for a whole network rupture), and find that the main parameter controlling the variability of the scenarios is the fracture energy. We then use a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of each generated scenario. To do that, we implement a logical tree associating a weight to each model input hypothesis. Combining these weights, we compute the probability of occurrence of each scenario, and show that the multisegment scenarios are very likely (52 per cent), but that the whole network rupture scenario is unlikely (14 per cent).

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Stress Rupture Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Nathanael J.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Leifeste, Mark R.; Yoder, Tommy B.; Keddy, Chris P.; Forth, Scott C.; Russell, Rick W.

2010-01-01

This paper reports stress rupture testing of Kevlar(TradeMark) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) at NASA White Sands Test Facility. This 6-year test program was part of the larger effort to predict and extend the lifetime of flight vessels. Tests were performed to characterize control parameters for stress rupture testing, and vessel life was predicted by statistical modeling. One highly instrumented 102-cm (40-in.) diameter Kevlar(TradeMark) COPV was tested to failure (burst) as a single-point model verification. Significant data were generated that will enhance development of improved NDE methods and predictive modeling techniques, and thus better address stress rupture and other composite durability concerns that affect pressure vessel safety, reliability and mission assurance.

Subcritical crack growth in fibrous materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santucci, S.; Cortet, P.-P.; Deschanel, S.; Vanel, L.; Ciliberto, S.

2006-05-01

We present experiments on the slow growth of a single crack in a fax paper sheet submitted to a constant force F. We find that statistically averaged crack growth curves can be described by only two parameters: the mean rupture time τ and a characteristic growth length ζ. We propose a model based on a thermally activated rupture process that takes into account the microstructure of cellulose fibers. The model is able to reproduce the shape of the growth curve, the dependence of ζ on F as well as the effect of temperature on the rupture time τ. We find that the length scale at which rupture occurs in this model is consistently close to the diameter of cellulose microfibrils.

Rupture process of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Ecuador earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR data and teleseismic P waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Lei; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Zhang, Xu; Jiang, Guoyan

2018-01-01

The 2016 Ecuador earthquake ruptured the Ecuador-Colombia subduction interface where several historic megathrust earthquakes had occurred. In order to determine a detailed rupture model, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images and teleseismic data sets were objectively weighted by using a modified Akaika's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) method to jointly invert for the rupture process of the earthquake. In modeling the rupture process, a constrained waveform length method, unlike the traditional subjective selected waveform length method, was used since the lengths of inverted waveforms were strictly constrained by the rupture velocity and rise time (the slip duration time). The optimal rupture velocity and rise time of the earthquake were estimated from grid search, which were determined to be 2.0 km/s and 20 s, respectively. The inverted model shows that the event is dominated by thrust movement and the released moment is 5.75 × 1020 Nm (Mw 7.77). The slip distribution extends southward along the Ecuador coast line in an elongated stripe at a depth between 10 and 25 km. The slip model is composed of two asperities and slipped over 4 m. The source time function is approximate 80 s that separated into two segments corresponding to the two asperities. The small magnitude of the slip occurred in the updip section of the fault plane resulted in small tsunami waves that were verified by observations near the coast. We suggest a possible situation that the rupture zone of the 2016 earthquake is likely not overlapped with that of the 1942 earthquake.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitarka, Arben

GEN_SRF_4 is a computer program for generation kinematic earthquake rupture models for use in ground motion modeling and simulations of earthquakes. The output is an ascii SRF formatted file containing kinematic rupture parameters.

Studying the Effects of Transparent vs. Opaque Shallow Thrust Faults Using Synthetic P and SH Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Aagaard, B. T.; Heaton, T. H.

2001-12-01

It has been hypothesized (Brune, 1996) that teleseismic inversions may underestimate the moment of shallow thrust fault earthquakes if energy becomes trapped in the hanging wall of the fault, i.e. if the fault boundary becomes opaque. We address this by creating and analyzing synthetic P and SH seismograms for a variety of friction models. There are a total of five models: (1) crack model (slip weakening) with instantaneous healing (2) crack model without healing (3) crack model with zero sliding friction (4) pulse model (slip and rate weakening) (5) prescribed model (Haskell-like rupture with the same final slip and peak slip-rate as model 4). Models 1-4 are all dynamic models where fault friction laws determine the rupture history. This allows feedback between the ongoing rupture and waves from the beginning of the rupture that hit the surface and reflect downwards. Hence, models 1-4 can exhibit opaque fault characteristics. Model 5, a prescribed rupture, allows for no interaction between the rupture and reflected waves, therefore, it is a transparent fault. We first produce source time functions for the different friction models by rupturing shallow thrust faults in 3-D dynamic finite-element simulations. The source time functions are used as point dislocations in a teleseismic body-wave code. We examine the P and SH waves for different azimuths and epicentral distances. The peak P and S first arrival displacement amplitudes for the crack, crack with healing and pulse models are all very similar. These dynamic models with opaque faults produce smaller peak P and S first arrivals than the prescribed, transparent fault. For example, a fault with strike = 90 degrees, azimuth = 45 degrees has P arrivals smaller by about 30% and S arrivals smaller by about 15%. The only dynamic model that doesn't fit this pattern is the crack model with zero sliding friction. It oscillates around its equilibrium position; therefore, it overshoots and yields an excessively large peak first arrival. In general, it appears that the dynamic, opaque faults have smaller peak teleseismic displacements that would lead to lower moment estimates by a modest amount.

Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous earthquake source models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Barall, M.

2011-01-01

Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the model to physical concepts. In a variant of the model, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.

Period-dependent source rupture behavior of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated by multi period-band Bayesian waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Aoi, S.

2014-12-01

Previous studies for the period-dependent source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (e.g., Koper et al., 2011; Lay et al., 2012) were based on the short and long period source models using different method. Kubo et al. (2013) obtained source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake using multi period-bands waveform data by a common inversion method and discussed its period-dependent source characteristics. In this study, to achieve more in detail spatiotemporal source rupture behavior of this event, we introduce a new fault surface model having finer sub-fault size and estimate the source models in multi period-bands using a Bayesian inversion method combined with a multi-time-window method. Three components of velocity waveforms at 25 stations of K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net of NIED are used in this analysis. The target period band is 10-100 s. We divide this period band into three period bands (10-25 s, 25-50 s, and 50-100 s) and estimate a kinematic source model in each period band using a Bayesian inversion method with MCMC sampling (e.g., Fukuda & Johnson, 2008; Minson et al., 2013, 2014). The parameterization of spatiotemporal slip distribution follows the multi-time-window method (Hartzell & Heaton, 1983). The Green's functions are calculated by the 3D FDM (GMS; Aoi & Fujiwara, 1999) using a 3D velocity structure model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012). The assumed fault surface model is based on the Pacific plate boundary of JIVSM and is divided into 384 subfaults of about 16 * 16 km^2. The estimated source models in multi period-bands show the following source image: (1) First deep rupture off Miyagi at 0-60 s toward down-dip mostly radiating relatively short period (10-25 s) seismic waves. (2) Shallow rupture off Miyagi at 45-90 s toward up-dip with long duration radiating long period (50-100 s) seismic wave. (3) Second deep rupture off Miyagi at 60-105 s toward down-dip radiating longer period seismic waves then that of the first deep rupture. (4) Deep rupture off Fukushima at 90-135 s. The dominant-period difference of the seismic-wave radiation between two deep ruptures off Miyagi may result from the mechanism that small-scale heterogeneities on the fault are removed by the first rupture. This difference can be also interpreted by the concept of multi-scale dynamic rupture (Ide & Aochi, 2005).

Influence of hemodynamic factors on rupture of intracranial aneurysms: patient-specific 3D mirror aneurysms model computational fluid dynamics simulation.

PubMed

Lu, G; Huang, L; Zhang, X L; Wang, S Z; Hong, Y; Hu, Z; Geng, D Y

2011-08-01

Hemodynamics factors play an important role in the rupture of cerebral aneurysms. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of hemodynamic factors on the rupture of the MANs with 3D reconstruction model CFD simulation. RDSA was performed in 9 pairs of intracranial MANs. Each pair was divided into ruptured and unruptured groups. The hemodynamic factors of the aneurysms and their parent arteries were compared. There was a significant difference in the WSS at peak systole between the regions of the aneurysms and their parent arteries in the ruptured group (ie, 6.49 ± 3.48 Pa versus 8.78 ± 3.57 Pa, P =.015) but not in the unruptured group (ie, 9.80 ± 4.12 Pa versus 10.17 ± 7.48 Pa, P =.678). The proportion of the low WSS area to the whole area of the aneurysms was 12.20 ± 18.08% in the ruptured group and 3.96 ± 6.91% in the unruptured group; the difference between the 2 groups was statistically significant (P =.015). The OSI was 0.0879 ± 0.0764 in the ruptured group, which was significantly higher than that of the unruptured group (ie, 0.0183 ± 0.0191, P =.008). MANs may be a useful disease model to investigate possible causes linked to ruptured aneurysms. The ruptured aneurysms manifested lower WSS compared with their parent arteries, a higher proportion of the low WSS area to the whole area of aneurysm, and higher OSI compared with the unruptured aneurysms.

Rupture Dynamics and Scaling Behavior of Hydraulically Stimulated Micro-Earthquakes in a Shale Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viegas, G. F.; Urbancic, T.; Baig, A. M.

2014-12-01

In hydraulic fracturing completion programs fluids are injected under pressure into fractured rock formations to open escape pathways for trapped hydrocarbons along pre-existing and newly generated fractures. To characterize the failure process, we estimate static and dynamic source and rupture parameters, such as dynamic and static stress drop, radiated energy, seismic efficiency, failure modes, failure plane orientations and dimensions, and rupture velocity to investigate the rupture dynamics and scaling relations of micro-earthquakes induced during a hydraulic fracturing shale completion program in NE British Columbia, Canada. The relationships between the different parameters combined with the in-situ stress field and rock properties provide valuable information on the rupture process giving insights into the generation and development of the fracture network. Approximately 30,000 micro-earthquakes were recorded using three multi-sensor arrays of high frequency geophones temporarily placed close to the treatment area at reservoir depth (~2km). On average the events have low radiated energy, low dynamic stress and low seismic efficiency, consistent with the obtained slow rupture velocities. Events fail in overshoot mode (slip weakening failure model), with fluids lubricating faults and decreasing friction resistance. Events occurring in deeper formations tend to have faster rupture velocities and are more efficient in radiating energy. Variations in rupture velocity tend to correlate with variation in depth, fault azimuth and elapsed time, reflecting a dominance of the local stress field over other factors. Several regions with different characteristic failure modes are identifiable based on coherent stress drop, seismic efficiency, rupture velocities and fracture orientations. Variations of source parameters with rock rheology and hydro-fracture fluids are also observed. Our results suggest that the spatial and temporal distribution of events with similar characteristic rupture behaviors can be used to determine reservoir geophysical properties, constrain reservoir geo-mechanical models, classify dynamic rupture processes for fracture models and improve fracture treatment designs.

A Combined Experimental and Numerical Modeling Study of the Deformation and Rupture of Axisymmetric Liquid Bridges under Coaxial Stretching.

PubMed

Zhuang, Jinda; Ju, Y Sungtaek

2015-09-22

The deformation and rupture of axisymmetric liquid bridges being stretched between two fully wetted coaxial disks are studied experimentally and theoretically. We numerically solve the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations while tracking the deformation of the liquid-air interface using the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) moving mesh method to fully account for the effects of inertia and viscous forces on bridge dynamics. The effects of the stretching velocity, liquid properties, and liquid volume on the dynamics of liquid bridges are systematically investigated to provide direct experimental validation of our numerical model for stretching velocities as high as 3 m/s. The Ohnesorge number (Oh) of liquid bridges is a primary factor governing the dynamics of liquid bridge rupture, especially the dependence of the rupture distance on the stretching velocity. The rupture distance generally increases with the stretching velocity, far in excess of the static stability limit. For bridges with low Ohnesorge numbers, however, the rupture distance stay nearly constant or decreases with the stretching velocity within certain velocity windows due to the relative rupture position switching and the thread shape change. Our work provides an experimentally validated modeling approach and experimental data to help establish foundation for systematic further studies and applications of liquid bridges.

Numerical simulation of the 1976 Ms7.8 Tangshan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengbo; Chen, Xiaofei

2017-04-01

An Ms 7.8 earthquake happened in Tangshan in 1976, causing more than 240000 people death and almost destroying the whole city. Numerous studies indicated that the surface rupture zone extends 8 to 11 km in the south of Tangshan City. The fault system is composed with more than ten NE-trending right-lateral strike-slip left-stepping echelon faults, with a general strike direction of N30°E. However, recent scholars proposed that the surface ruptures appeared in a larger area. To simulate the rupture process closer to the real situation, the curvilinear grid finite difference method presented by Zhang et al. (2006, 2014) which can handle the free surface and the complex geometry were implemented to investigate the dynamic rupture and ground motion of Tangshan earthquake. With the data from field survey, seismic section, borehole and trenching results given by different studies, several fault geometry models were established. The intensity, the seismic waveform and the displacement resulted from the simulation of different models were compared with the observed data. The comparison of these models shows details of the rupture process of the Tangshan earthquake and implies super-shear may occur during the rupture, which is important for better understanding of this complicated rupture process and seismic hazard distributions of this earthquake.

Inferring rupture characteristics using new databases for 3D slab geometry and earthquake rupture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, G. P.; Plescia, S. M.; Moore, G.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center has recently published a database of finite fault models for globally distributed M7.5+ earthquakes since 1990. Concurrently, we have also compiled a database of three-dimensional slab geometry models for all global subduction zones, to update and replace Slab1.0. Here, we use these two new and valuable resources to infer characteristics of earthquake rupture and propagation in subduction zones, where the vast majority of large-to-great-sized earthquakes occur. For example, we can test questions that are fairly prevalent in seismological literature. Do large ruptures preferentially occur where subduction zones are flat (e.g., Bletery et al., 2016)? Can `flatness' be mapped to understand and quantify earthquake potential? Do the ends of ruptures correlate with significant changes in slab geometry, and/or bathymetric features entering the subduction zone? Do local subduction zone geometry changes spatially correlate with areas of low slip in rupture models (e.g., Moreno et al., 2012)? Is there a correlation between average seismogenic zone dip, and/or seismogenic zone width, and earthquake size? (e.g., Hayes et al., 2012; Heuret et al., 2011). These issues are fundamental to the understanding of earthquake rupture dynamics and subduction zone seismogenesis, and yet many are poorly understood or are still debated in scientific literature. We attempt to address these questions and similar issues in this presentation, and show how these models can be used to improve our understanding of earthquake hazard in subduction zones.

Microvessel rupture induced by high-intensity therapeutic ultrasound-a study of parameter sensitivity in a simple in vivo model.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonho; Nabili, Marjan; Acharya, Priyanka; Lopez, Asis; Myers, Matthew R

2017-01-01

Safety analyses of transcranial therapeutic ultrasound procedures require knowledge of the dependence of the rupture probability and rupture time upon sonication parameters. As previous vessel-rupture studies have concentrated on a specific set of exposure conditions, there is a need for more comprehensive parametric studies. Probability of rupture and rupture times were measured by exposing the large blood vessel of a live earthworm to high-intensity focused ultrasound pulse trains of various characteristics. Pressures generated by the ultrasound transducers were estimated through numerical solutions to the KZK (Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov) equation. Three ultrasound frequencies (1.1, 2.5, and 3.3 MHz) were considered, as were three pulse repetition frequencies (1, 3, and 10 Hz), and two duty factors (0.0001, 0.001). The pressures produced ranged from 4 to 18 MPa. Exposures of up to 10 min in duration were employed. Trials were repeated an average of 11 times. No trends as a function of pulse repetition rate were identifiable, for either probability of rupture or rupture time. Rupture time was found to be a strong function of duty factor at the lower pressures; at 1.1 MHz the rupture time was an order of magnitude lower for the 0.001 duty factor than the 0.0001. At moderate pressures, the difference between the duty factors was less, and there was essentially no difference between duty factors at the highest pressure. Probability of rupture was not found to be a strong function of duty factor. Rupture thresholds were about 4 MPa for the 1.1 MHz frequency, 7 MPa at 3.3 MHz, and 11 MPa for the 2.5 MHz, though the pressure value at 2.5 MHz frequency will likely be reduced when steep-angle corrections are accounted for in the KZK model used to estimate pressures. Mechanical index provided a better collapse of the data (less separation of the curves pertaining to the different frequencies) than peak negative pressure, for both probability of rupture and rupture time. The results provide a database with which investigations in more complex animal models can be compared, potentially establishing trends by which bioeffects in human vessels can be estimated.

Nonlinear Inversion for Dynamic Rupture Parameters from the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, R. M.; Olsen, K. B.

2007-12-01

The Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault has produced repeated moderate-size earthquakes at fairly regular intervals and is therefore an important target for investigations of rupture initiation, propagation and arrest, which could eventually lead to clues on earthquake prediction. The most recent member of the Parkfield series of earthquakes, the 2004 Mw6.0 event, produced a considerable amount of high-resolution strong motion data, and provides an ideal test bed for analysis of the dynamic rupture propagation. Here, we use a systematic nonlinear direct-search method to invert strong-ground motion data (less than 1 Hz) at 37 stations to obtain models of the slip weakening distance and spatially-varying stress drop (8 by 4 subfaults) on the (vertical) causative segment of the San Andreas fault (40 km long by 15 km wide), along with spatial-temporal coseismic slip distributions. The rupture and wave propagation modeling is performed by a three-dimensional finite-difference method with a slip- weakening friction law and the stress-glut dynamic-rupture formulation (Andrews, 1999), and the inversion is carried out by a neighborhood algorithm (Sambridge, 1999), minimizing the least-squares misfit between the calculated and observed seismograms. The dynamic rupture is nucleated artificially by lowering the yield stress in a 3 km by 3 km patch centered at the location of the hypocenter estimated from strong motion data. Outside the nucleation patch the yield stress is kept constant (5-10 MPa), and we constrain the slip-weakening distance to values less than 1 m. We compare the inversion results for two different velocity models: (1) a 3-D model based on the P-wave velocity structure by Thurber (2006), with S-wave and density relations based on Brocher (2005), and (2) a combination of two different 1-D layered velocity structures on either side of the fault, as proposed by Liu et al. (2006). Due to the non-uniqueness of the problem, the inversion provides an ensemble of equally valid rupture models that produce synthetics with comparable fit to the observed strong motion data. Our preliminary results with the smallest misfits, out of about 3000 tested rupture models, suggest an average slip-weakening distance of 19-81 cm and an average stress drop across the fault of 6.7 - 8.4 MPa. Compared to the kinematic inversion results by Liu et al. (2006) our models with the smallest misfits produce a larger maximum slip (up to about 81 cm) and smaller rupture area, but similar rupture duration (5-7s). The inversions carried out for the layered models tend to produce smaller misfit between data and synthetics as compared to the results using the 3D structure. This suggests that our 3D structure needs improvement, including the Vs-Vp and density-Vp relation. We expect further decrease in the misfit values by increasing the number of tested rupture models.

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) Stress Rupture Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Richard; Flynn, Howard; Forth, Scott; Greene, Nathanael; Kezian, Michael; Varanauski, Don; Yoder, Tommy; Woodworth, Warren

2009-01-01

One of the major concerns for the aging Space Shuttle fleet is the stress rupture life of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). Stress rupture life of a COPV has been defined as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress levels and time. To assist in the evaluation of the aging COPVs in the Orbiter fleet an analytical reliability model was developed. The actual data used to construct this model was from testing of COPVs constructed of similar, but not exactly same materials and pressure cycles as used on Orbiter vessels. Since no actual Orbiter COPV stress rupture data exists the Space Shuttle Program decided to run a stress rupture test to compare to model predictions. Due to availability of spares, the testing was unfortunately limited to one 40" vessel. The stress rupture test was performed at maximum operating pressure at an elevated temperature to accelerate aging. The test was performed in two phases. The first phase, 130 F, a moderately accelerated test designed to achieve the midpoint of the model predicted point reliability. The more aggressive second phase, performed at 160 F was designed to determine if the test article will exceed the 95% confidence interval of the model. This paper will discuss the results of this test, it's implications and possible follow-on testing.

Postseismic deformation following the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and implications for rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollins, C.; Gualandi, A.; Avouac, J. P.; Liu, J.; Zhang, Z.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake ruptured the lower, northern edge of the interseismically locked section of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Independent Component Analysis of location timeseries at GPS stations in Nepal and Tibet reveals significant transient postseismic motion following the mainshock. In order to probe the frictional properties of the MHT and the viscoelastic properties of the crust and upper mantle, we compare the extracted postseismic motions to those predicted by forward models of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. Postseismic displacements are minimal south of the coseismic rupture, suggesting that minimal afterslip occurred there and that the upper MHT remains mostly locked. North of the rupture, postseismic displacements feature south-southwest horizontal motion and uplift, each on the order of a few cm in the first postseismic year. A model of stress-driven afterslip extending 100 km north of the coseismic rupture reproduces the horizontal postseismic timeseries and the general pattern of uplift and subsidence; however, this model significantly overpredicts the uplift at stations overlying the rupture, and the down-dip extent of afterslip may be unrealistic. Viscoelastic relaxation in the high-temperature Tibetan crust reproduces the observed SSW motion without overpredicting the uplift; viscoelastic relaxation in the downgoing Indian mantle, however, produces northward motion and subsidence north of the rupture, i.e. opposite to the observed motions. We argue that models of coupled afterslip (confined close to the rupture) and viscoelastic relaxation can reproduce the postseismic timeseries with physically plausible parameters.

Distributed Seismic Moment Fault Model, Spectral Characteristics and Radiation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shani-Kadmiel, Shahar; Tsesarsky, Michael; Gvirtzman, Zohar

2014-05-01

We implement a Distributed Seismic Moment (DSM) fault model, a physics-based representation of an earthquake source based on a skewed-Gaussian slip distribution over an elliptical rupture patch, for the purpose of forward modeling of seismic-wave propagation in 3-D heterogeneous medium. The elliptical rupture patch is described by 13 parameters: location (3), dimensions of the patch (2), patch orientation (1), focal mechanism (3), nucleation point (2), peak slip (1), rupture velocity (1). A node based second order finite difference approach is used to solve the seismic-wave equations in displacement formulation (WPP, Nilsson et al., 2007). Results of our DSM fault model are compared with three commonly used fault models: Point Source Model (PSM), Haskell's fault Model (HM), and HM with Radial (HMR) rupture propagation. Spectral features of the waveforms and radiation patterns from these four models are investigated. The DSM fault model best incorporates the simplicity and symmetry of the PSM with the directivity effects of the HMR while satisfying the physical requirements, i.e., smooth transition from peak slip at the nucleation point to zero at the rupture patch border. The implementation of the DSM in seismic-wave propagation forward models comes at negligible computational cost. Reference: Nilsson, S., Petersson, N. A., Sjogreen, B., and Kreiss, H.-O. (2007). Stable Difference Approximations for the Elastic Wave Equation in Second Order Formulation. SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 45(5), 1902-1936.

Forecasting the Rupture Directivity of Large Earthquakes: Centroid Bias of the Conditional Hypocenter Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2012-12-01

Forecasting the rupture directivity of large earthquakes is an important problem in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), because directivity is known to strongly influence ground motions. We describe how rupture directivity can be forecast in terms of the "conditional hypocenter distribution" or CHD, defined to be the probability distribution of a hypocenter given the spatial distribution of moment release (fault slip). The simplest CHD is a uniform distribution, in which the hypocenter probability density equals the moment-release probability density. For rupture models in which the rupture velocity and rise time depend only on the local slip, the CHD completely specifies the distribution of the directivity parameter D, defined in terms of the degree-two polynomial moments of the source space-time function. This parameter, which is zero for a bilateral rupture and unity for a unilateral rupture, can be estimated from finite-source models or by the direct inversion of seismograms (McGuire et al., 2002). We compile D-values from published studies of 65 large earthquakes and show that these data are statistically inconsistent with the uniform CHD advocated by McGuire et al. (2002). Instead, the data indicate a "centroid biased" CHD, in which the expected distance between the hypocenter and the hypocentroid is less than that of a uniform CHD. In other words, the observed directivities appear to be closer to bilateral than predicted by this simple model. We discuss the implications of these results for rupture dynamics and fault-zone heterogeneities. We also explore their PSHA implications by modifying the CyberShake simulation-based hazard model for the Los Angeles region, which assumed a uniform CHD (Graves et al., 2011).

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graves, Robert; Jordan, Thomas H.; Callaghan, Scott; Deelman, Ewa; Field, Edward; Juve, Gideon; Kesselman, Carl; Maechling, Philip; Mehta, Gaurang; Milner, Kevin; Okaya, David; Small, Patrick; Vahi, Karan

2011-03-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.

CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.; Jordan, T.H.; Callaghan, S.; Deelman, E.; Field, E.; Juve, G.; Kesselman, C.; Maechling, P.; Mehta, G.; Milner, K.; Okaya, D.; Small, P.; Vahi, K.

2011-01-01

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200 km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i. e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2 s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor displacement, in 2D. Finally, we use the same rheology in a large-scale 3D scenario of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake to shed light to the source process that caused the subsequent devastating tsunami.

Self-healing slip pulses in dynamic rupture models due to velocity-dependent strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, N.M.; Tullis, T.E.

1996-01-01

Seismological observations of short slip duration on faults (short rise time on seismograms) during earthquakes are not consistent with conventional crack models of dynamic rupture and fault slip. In these models, the leading edge of rupture stops only when a strong region is encountered, and slip at an interior point ceases only when waves from the stopped edge of slip propagate back to that point. In contrast, some seismological evidence suggests that the duration of slip is too short for waves to propagate from the nearest edge of the ruptured surface, perhaps even if the distance used is an asperity size instead of the entire rupture dimension. What controls slip duration, if not dimensions of the fault or of asperities? In this study, dynamic earthquake rupture and slip are represented by a propagating shear crack. For all propagating shear cracks, slip velocity is highest near the rupture front, and at a small distance behind the rupture front, the slip velocity decreases. As pointed out by Heaton (1990), if the crack obeys a negative slip-rate-dependent strength relation, the lower slip velocity behind the rupture front will lead to strengthening that further reduces the velocity, and under certain circumstances, healing of slip can occur. The boundary element method of Hamano (1974) is used in a program adapted from Andrews (1985) for numerical simulations of mode II rupture with two different velocity-dependent strength functions. For the first function, after a slip-weakening displacement, the crack follows an exponential velocity-weakening relation. The characteristic velocity V0 of the exponential determines the magnitude of the velocity-dependence at dynamic velocities. The velocity-dependence at high velocity is essentially zero when V0 is small and the resulting slip velocity distribution is similar to slip weakening. If V0 is larger, rupture propagation initially resembles slip-weakening, but spontaneous healing occurs behind the rupture front. The rise time and rupture propagation velocity depend on the choice of constitutive parameters. The second strength function is a natural log velocity-dependent form similar to constitutive laws that fit experimental rock friction data at lower velocities. Slip pulses also arise with this function. For a reasonable choice of constitutive parameters, slip pulses with this function do not propagate at speeds greater than the Raleighwave velocity. The calculated slip pulses are similar in many aspects to seismic observations of short rise time. In all cases of self-healing slip pulses, the residual stress increases with distance behind the trailing edge of the pulse so that the final stress drop is much less than the dynamic stress drop, in agreement with the model of Brune (1976) and some recent seismological observations of rupture.

Dynamic fault rupture model of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan; Role of rupture velocity changes on extreme ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Dalguer Gudiel, L. A.; Aoi, S.

2009-12-01

The Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, a reverse earthquake occurred in the southern Iwate prefecture Japan (2008/6/14), produced the largest peak ground acceleration recorded to date (4g) (Aoi et al. 2008), at the West Ichinoseki (IWTH25), KiK-net strong motion station of NIED. This station which is equipped with surface and borehole accelerometers (GL-260), also recorded very high peak accelerations up to 1g at the borehole level, despite being located in a rock site. From comparison of spectrograms of the observed surface and borehole records at IWTH25, Pulido et. al (2008) identified two high frequency (HF) ground motion events located at 4.5s and 6.3s originating at the source, which likely derived in the extreme observed accelerations of 3.9g and 3.5g at IWTH25. In order to understand the generation mechanism of these HF events we performed a dynamic fault rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake by using the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, (Ely et al., 2009). SORD solves the elastodynamic equation using a generalized finite difference method that can utilize meshes of arbitrary structure and is capable of handling geometries appropriate to thrust earthquakes. Our spontaneous dynamic rupture model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake is governed by the simple slip weakening friction law. The dynamic parameters, stress drop, strength excess and critical slip weakening distance are estimated following the procedure described in Pulido and Dalguer (2009) [PD09]. These parameters develop earthquake rupture consistent with the final slip obtained by kinematic source inversion of near source strong ground motion recordings. The dislocation model of this earthquake is characterized by a patch of large slip located ~7 km south of the hypocenter (Suzuki et al. 2009). Our results for the calculation of stress drop follow a similar pattern. Using the rupture times obtained from the dynamic model of the Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake we estimated the rupture velocity as well as rupture velocity changes distribution across the fault plane based on the procedure proposed by PD09. Our results show that rupture velocity has strong variations concentrated in small patches within large slip areas (asperities). Using this dynamic model we performed the strong motion simulation at the IWTH25 borehole. We obtained that this model is able to reproduce the two HF events observed in the strong motion data. Our preliminary results suggest that the extreme acceleration pulses were induced by two strong rupture velocity acceleration events at the rupture front. References Aoi, S., T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara, 2008, Science, 322, 727-730. Ely, G. P., S. M. Day, and J.-B. Minster (2009), Geophys. J. Int., 177(3), 1140-1150. Pulido, N., S. Aoi, and W. Suzuki (2008), AGU Fall meeting, S33C-02. Pulido, N., and L.A. Dalguer, (2009). Estimation of the high-frequency radiation of the 2000 Tottori (Japan) earthquake based on a dynamic model of fault rupture: Application to the strong ground motion simulation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 99(4), 2305-2322. Suzuki, W., S. Aoi, and H. Sekiguchi, (2009), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. (Accepted).

Steady-state propagation speed of rupture fronts along one-dimensional frictional interfaces.

PubMed

Amundsen, David Skålid; Trømborg, Jørgen Kjoshagen; Thøgersen, Kjetil; Katzav, Eytan; Malthe-Sørenssen, Anders; Scheibert, Julien

2015-09-01

The rupture of dry frictional interfaces occurs through the propagation of fronts breaking the contacts at the interface. Recent experiments have shown that the velocities of these rupture fronts range from quasistatic velocities proportional to the external loading rate to velocities larger than the shear wave speed. The way system parameters influence front speed is still poorly understood. Here we study steady-state rupture propagation in a one-dimensional (1D) spring-block model of an extended frictional interface for various friction laws. With the classical Amontons-Coulomb friction law, we derive a closed-form expression for the steady-state rupture velocity as a function of the interfacial shear stress just prior to rupture. We then consider an additional shear stiffness of the interface and show that the softer the interface, the slower the rupture fronts. We provide an approximate closed form expression for this effect. We finally show that adding a bulk viscosity on the relative motion of blocks accelerates steady-state rupture fronts and we give an approximate expression for this effect. We demonstrate that the 1D results are qualitatively valid in 2D. Our results provide insights into the qualitative role of various key parameters of a frictional interface on its rupture dynamics. They will be useful to better understand the many systems in which spring-block models have proved adequate, from friction to granular matter and earthquake dynamics.

Exposure of Microcystis aeruginosa to hydrogen peroxide and titanium dioxide under visible light conditions: Modeling the impact of hydrogen peroxide and hydroxyl radical on cell rupture and microcystin degradation.

PubMed

Chang, Che-Wei; Huo, Xiangchen; Lin, Tsair-Fuh

2018-05-14

The aims of this study are to evaluate, under visible light conditions, the ability of H 2 O 2 and TiO 2 to produce OH, their quantitative impacts on the cell integrity of Microcystis, and the subsequent release and degradation of microcystins (MCs). A sequential reaction model was developed, including one sub-model to simulate the rupture kinetics for cell integrity of Microcystis, and another to describe the release and degradation of MCs. For cell rupture, the dual-oxidant Delayed Chick-Watson model (DCWM) and dual-oxidant Hom model (HM) were first proposed and developed, giving excellent simulation results of cell rupture kinetics. Kinetic rate constants between Microcystis cells and H 2 O 2 [Formula: see text] as well as OH (k •OH, Cell ) under visible light successfully separated the individual effects of H 2 O 2 and OH on Microcystis. The dual-oxidant models were further validated with additional experiments, making the models more convincing. Finally, the dual-oxidant cell rupture models were integrated with the MC degradation model and well predicted the observed MCs concentrations in the experimental systems. The results of this study not only demonstrate the potential application of H 2 O 2 and TiO 2 for the control of cyanobacteria and metabolites in natural water bodies, but also provide a new methodology to differentiate the individual contributions of the two oxidants, H 2 O 2 and OH, on cell rupture, thus giving a novel way to more precisely determine the effective doses of applied oxidants for cyanobacteria control. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are Physics-Based Simulators Ready for Prime Time? Comparisons of RSQSim with UCERF3 and Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, K. R.; Shaw, B. E.; Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.

2017-12-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is typically performed by combining an earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) with a set of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). ERFs have typically relied on observed fault slip rates and scaling relationships to estimate the rate of large earthquakes on pre-defined fault segments, either ignoring or relying on expert opinion to set the rates of multi-fault or multi-segment ruptures. Version 3 of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) is a significant step forward, replacing expert opinion and fault segmentation with an inversion approach that matches observations better than prior models while incorporating multi-fault ruptures. UCERF3 is a statistical model, however, and doesn't incorporate the physics of earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation, and stress transfer. We examine the feasibility of replacing UCERF3, or components therein, with physics-based rupture simulators such as the Rate-State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim), developed by Dieterich & Richards-Dinger (2010). RSQSim simulations on the UCERF3 fault system produce catalogs of seismicity that match long term rates on major faults, and produce remarkable agreement with UCERF3 when carried through to PSHA calculations. Averaged over a representative set of sites, the RSQSim-UCERF3 hazard-curve differences are comparable to the small differences between UCERF3 and its predecessor, UCERF2. The hazard-curve agreement between the empirical and physics-based models provides substantial support for the PSHA methodology. RSQSim catalogs include many complex multi-fault ruptures, which we compare with the UCERF3 rupture-plausibility metrics as well as recent observations. Complications in generating physically plausible kinematic descriptions of multi-fault ruptures have thus far prevented us from using UCERF3 in the CyberShake physics-based PSHA platform, which replaces GMPEs with deterministic ground motion simulations. RSQSim produces full slip/time histories that can be directly implemented as sources in CyberShake, without relying on the conditional hypocenter and slip distributions needed for the UCERF models. We also compare RSQSim with time-dependent PSHA calculations based on multi-fault renewal models.

The 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake Revealed by Kinematic Source Inversion and Seismic Wavefield Simulations: Slow Rupture Propagation on a Geometrically Complex Crustal Fault Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, C.; Kaneko, Y.; D'Anastasio, E.; Benites, R.; Fry, B.; Hamling, I. J.

2017-11-01

The 2016 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake generated large ground motions and resulted in multiple onshore and offshore fault ruptures, a profusion of triggered landslides, and a regional tsunami. Here we examine the rupture evolution using two kinematic modeling techniques based on analysis of local strong-motion and high-rate GPS data. Our kinematic models capture a complex pattern of slowly (Vr < 2 km/s) propagating rupture from south to north, with over half of the moment release occurring in the northern source region, mostly on the Kekerengu fault, 60 s after the origin time. Both models indicate rupture reactivation on the Kekerengu fault with the time separation of 11 s between the start of the original failure and start of the subsequent one. We further conclude that most near-source waveforms can be explained by slip on the crustal faults, with little (<8%) or no contribution from the subduction interface.

Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

2018-02-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

Implications on 1 + 1 D Tsunami Runup Modeling due to Time Features of the Earthquake Source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Ruiz, J.; Campos, J.

2018-04-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1 + 1 D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the kinematic case, by including both rise time and rupture velocity. Our results show that the static case corresponds to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum runup may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. Parametric analysis reveals that runup is strictly decreasing with the rise time while is highly amplified in a certain range of slow rupture velocities. For even lower rupture velocities, the tsunami excitation vanishes and for larger, quicker approaches to the instantaneous case.

The 2017 Mw8.2 Tres Picos, Mexico Earthquake, an intraslab rupture crossing the Tehuantepec Fracture Zone stopped by a tear in the Cocos Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, S.; Zeng, H.; WANG, X.; Qiu, Q.; Wang, T.; Li, L.; Chen, M.; Hermawan, I.; Wang, Y.; Tapponnier, P.; Barbot, S.

2017-12-01

On September 7th 2017, an Mw 8.2 intraslab earthquake ruptured beneath the Tehuantepec seismic gap in the Mexico subduction zone. We conducted a comprehensive investigation to characterize the earthquake rupture, including high-resolution back-projection, mainshock and large aftershocks relocation, aftershock moment tensor inversion, finite rupture model inversion jointly inverted from seismic waveform, static/high-rate GPS and InSAR images, and tsunami modeling. The back-projection results delineate a unilateral northwestward rupture about 150 km in length and 60s in duration, with a stable average rupture speed of 2.8 km/s. To reconcile multiple datasets, we used a two-segment fault geometry with near vertical dip angle (78°), and the second segment strikes slightly northward oriented, to mimic the rupture across the Tehuantepec Fracture Zone (FTZ) that separates the rupture into two segments. The joint inversion shows that the slip southeastern of TFZ dominates the moment release in the depth range of 30-50km during the first 40s. The second rupture segment released about 15% of the total moment, but with relatively larger contribution to the high-rate GPS, static geodetic and tide gauges data. Most of the large aftershocks occurred in the shallower part of the slab, with dominant thrust focal mechanism in agreement with slab bending. In contrast, the mainshock initiated at greater depth inside the slab, on a fault that may have formed near the trench and was reactivated by slab unbending, and was perhaps facilitated by dehydration. The comparison between the rupture model and the free air gravity anomaly suggests that the rupture was blocked westward by a low gravity anomaly zone. We interpret the difference in subducting speed and slab age across the TFZ and the Cocos plate gravity anomaly to be responsible for the abrupt stopping of the rupture at a tear zone inside the diving Cocos plate. Whether this earthquake will enhance future rupture on the plate interface in Tehuantepec seismic gap is not clear, as the corresponding stress change clamped the megathrust up-dip. Still, the recent seismic activity raises concern about the imminent seismic hazards in the region.

A Critique of a Phenomenological Fiber Breakage Model for Stress Rupture of Composite Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2010-01-01

Stress rupture is not a critical failure mode for most composite structures, but there are a few applications where it can be critical. One application where stress rupture can be a critical design issue is in Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV's), where the composite material is highly and uniformly loaded for long periods of time and where very high reliability is required. COPV's are normally required to be proof loaded before being put into service to insure strength, but it is feared that the proof load may cause damage that reduces the stress rupture reliability. Recently, a fiber breakage model was proposed specifically to estimate a reduced reliability due to proof loading. The fiber breakage model attempts to model physics believed to occur at the microscopic scale, but validation of the model has not occurred. In this paper, the fiber breakage model is re-derived while highlighting assumptions that were made during the derivation. Some of the assumptions are examined to assess their effect on the final predicted reliability.

A continuous damage model based on stepwise-stress creep rupture tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, D. N.

1985-01-01

A creep damage accumulation model is presented that makes use of the Kachanov damage rate concept with a provision accounting for damage that results from a variable stress history. This is accomplished through the introduction of an additional term in the Kachanov rate equation that is linear in the stress rate. Specification of the material functions and parameters in the model requires two types of constituting a data base: (1) standard constant-stress creep rupture tests, and (2) a sequence of two-step creep rupture tests.

Kinetics of the Multistep Rupture of Fibrin ‘A-a’ Polymerization Interactions Measured Using Atomic Force Microscopy

PubMed Central

Averett, Laurel E.; Schoenfisch, Mark H.; Akhremitchev, Boris B.; Gorkun, Oleg V.

2009-01-01

Abstract Fibrin, the structural scaffold of blood clots, spontaneously polymerizes through the formation of ‘A-a’ knob-hole bonds. When subjected to external force, the dissociation of this bond is accompanied by two to four abrupt changes in molecular dimension observable as rupture events in a force curve. Herein, the configuration, molecular extension, and kinetic parameters of each rupture event are examined. The increases in contour length indicate that the D region of fibrinogen can lengthen by ∼50% of the length of a fibrin monomer before rupture of the ‘A-a’ interaction. The dependence of the dissociation rate on applied force was obtained using probability distributions of rupture forces collected at different pull-off velocities. These distributions were fit using a model in which the effects of the shape of the binding potential are used to quantify the kinetic parameters of forced dissociation. We found that the weak initial rupture (i.e., event 1) was not well approximated by these models. The ruptured bonds comprising the strongest ruptures, events 2 and 3, had kinetic parameters similar to those commonly found for the mechanical unfolding of globular proteins. The bonds ruptured in event 4 were well described by these analyses, but were more loosely bound than the bonds in events 2 and 3. We propose that the first event represents the rupture of an unknown interaction parallel to the ‘A-a’ bond, events 2 and 3 represent unfolding of structures in the D region of fibrinogen, and event 4 is the rupture of the ‘A-a’ knob-hole bond weakened by prior structural unfolding. Comparison of the activation energy obtained via force spectroscopy measurements with the thermodynamic free energy of ‘A-a’ bond dissociation indicates that the ‘A-a’ bond may be more resistant to rupture by applied force than to rupture by thermal dissociation. PMID:19917237

Source rupture process of the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong-motion data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Ao; Wang, Mingfeng; Yu, Xiangwei; Zhang, Wenbo

2018-03-01

On 2016 November 13, an Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand near Kaikoura. The earthquake caused severe damages and great impacts on local nature and society. Referring to the tectonic environment and defined active faults, the field investigation and geodetic evidence reveal that at least 12 fault sections ruptured in the earthquake, and the focal mechanism is one of the most complicated in historical earthquakes. On account of the complexity of the source rupture, we propose a multisegment fault model based on the distribution of surface ruptures and active tectonics. We derive the source rupture process of the earthquake using the kinematic waveform inversion method with the multisegment fault model from strong-motion data of 21 stations (0.05-0.35 Hz). The inversion result suggests the rupture initiates in the epicentral area near the Humps fault, and then propagates northeastward along several faults, until the offshore Needles fault. The Mw 7.8 event is a mixture of right-lateral strike and reverse slip, and the maximum slip is approximately 19 m. The synthetic waveforms reproduce the characteristics of the observed ones well. In addition, we synthesize the coseismic offsets distribution of the ruptured region from the slips of upper subfaults in the fault model, which is roughly consistent with the surface breaks observed in the field survey.

Seismic Hazard Analysis on a Complex, Interconnected Fault Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Page, M. T.; Field, E. H.; Milner, K. R.

2017-12-01

In California, seismic hazard models have evolved from simple, segmented prescriptive models to much more complex representations of multi-fault and multi-segment earthquakes on an interconnected fault network. During the development of the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), the prevalence of multi-fault ruptures in the modeling was controversial. Yet recent earthquakes, for example, the Kaikora earthquake - as well as new research on the potential of multi-fault ruptures (e.g., Nissen et al., 2016; Sahakian et al. 2017) - have validated this approach. For large crustal earthquakes, multi-fault ruptures may be the norm rather than the exception. As datasets improve and we can view the rupture process at a finer scale, the interconnected, fractal nature of faults is revealed even by individual earthquakes. What is the proper way to model earthquakes on a fractal fault network? We show multiple lines of evidence that connectivity even in modern models such as UCERF3 may be underestimated, although clustering in UCERF3 mitigates some modeling simplifications. We need a methodology that can be applied equally well where the fault network is well-mapped and where it is not - an extendable methodology that allows us to "fill in" gaps in the fault network and in our knowledge.

Resolution of alliance ruptures: The special case of animal-assisted psychotherapy.

PubMed

Zilcha-Mano, Sigal

2017-01-01

Many therapists regard alliance ruptures as one of the greatest challenges therapists face in the therapy room. Alliance ruptures has been previously defined as breakdowns in the process of negotiation of treatment tasks and goals and a deterioration in the affective bond between patient and therapist. Alliance ruptures have been found to predict premature termination of treatment and poor treatment outcomes. But ruptures can also present important opportunities for gaining insight and awareness and for facilitating therapeutic change. A process of rupture resolution may lead to beneficial outcomes and serve as a corrective emotional experience. The article describes unique processes of alliance rupture resolution inherent in animal-assisted psychotherapy (AAP). Building on Safran and Muran's model and on clinical examples, the article describes strategies for identifying ruptures in AAP and techniques for repairing them to facilitate a corrective experience in treatment. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed.

Formation of a cavitation cluster in the vicinity of a quasi-empty rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bol'shakova, E. S.; Kedrinskiy, V. K.

2017-09-01

The presentation deals with one of the experimental and numerical models of a quasi-empty rupture in the magma melt. This rupture is formed in the liquid layer of a distilled cavitating fluid under shock loading within the framework of the problem formulation with a small electromagnetic hydrodynamic shock tube. It is demonstrated that the rupture is shaped as a spherical segment, which retains its topology during the entire process of its evolution and collapsing. The dynamic behavior of the quasi-empty rupture is analyzed, and the growth of cavitating nuclei in the form of the boundary layer near the entire rupture interface is found. It is shown that rupture implosion is accompanied by the transformation of the bubble boundary layer to a cavitating cluster, which takes the form of a ring-shaped vortex floating upward to the free surface of the liquid layer. A p-κ mathematical model is formulated, and calculations are performed to investigate the implosion of a quasi-empty spherical cavity in the cavitating liquid, generation of a shock wave by this cavity, and dynamics of the bubble density growth in the cavitating cluster by five orders of magnitude.

Variability of displacement at a point: Implications for earthquake‐size distribution and rupture hazard on faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hecker, Suzanne; Abrahamson, N.A.; Wooddell, Kathryn

2013-01-01

To investigate the nature of earthquake‐magnitude distributions on faults, we compare the interevent variability of surface displacement at a point on a fault from a composite global data set of paleoseismic observations with the variability expected from two prevailing magnitude–frequency distributions: the truncated‐exponential model and the characteristic‐earthquake model. We use forward modeling to predict the coefficient of variation (CV) for the alternative earthquake distributions, incorporating factors that would effect observations of displacement at a site. The characteristic‐earthquake model (with a characteristic‐magnitude range of ±0.25) produces CV values consistent with the data (CV∼0.5) only if the variability for a given earthquake magnitude is small. This condition implies that rupture patterns on a fault are stable, in keeping with the concept behind the model. This constraint also bears upon fault‐rupture hazard analysis, which, for lack of point‐specific information, has used global scaling relations to infer variability in average displacement for a given‐size earthquake. Exponential distributions of earthquakes (from M 5 to the maximum magnitude) give rise to CV values that are significantly larger than the empirical constraint. A version of the model truncated at M 7, however, yields values consistent with a larger CV (∼0.6) determined for small‐displacement sites. Although this result allows for a difference in the magnitude distribution of smaller surface‐rupturing earthquakes, it may reflect, in part, less stability in the displacement profile of smaller ruptures and/or the tails of larger ruptures.

Amplification of tsunami heights by delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, K.; Satake, K.; Furumura, T.

2010-04-01

We investigated the effect of delayed rupture of great earthquakes along the Nankai trough on tsunami heights on the Japanese coast. As the tsunami source, we used a model of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which consists of four segments: Tokai, Tonankai, and two Nankai segments. We first searched for the worst case, in terms of coastal tsunami heights, of rupture delay time on each segment, on the basis of superposition principle for the linear long wave theory. When the rupture starts on the Tonankai segment, followed by rupture on the Tokai segment 21 min later, as well as the eastern and western Nankai segments 15 and 28 min later, respectively, the average coastal tsunami height becomes the largest. To quantify the tsunami amplification, we compared the coastal tsunami heights from the delayed rupture with those from the simultaneous rupture model. Along the coasts of the sea of Hyu'uga and in the Bungo Channel, the tsunami heights become significantly amplified (>1.4 times larger) relative to the simultaneous rupture. Along the coasts of Tosa Bay and in the Kii Channel, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.2 times. Along the coasts of the sea of Kumano and Ise Bay, and the western Enshu coast, the tsunami heights become slightly smaller for the delayed rupture. Along the eastern Enshu coast, the coast of Suruga Bay, and the west coast of Sagami Bay, the tsunami heights become amplified about 1.1 times.

Estimation of source processes of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes from strong motion waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubo, H.; Suzuki, W.; Aoi, S.; Sekiguchi, H.

2016-12-01

In this study, we estimated the source processes for two large events of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (the M7.3 event at 1:25 JST on April 16, 2016 and the M6.5 event at 21:26 JST on April 14, 2016) from strong motion waveforms using multiple-time-window linear waveform inversion (Hartzell and Heaton 1983; Sekiguchi et al. 2000). Based on the observations of surface ruptures, the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and the geodetic data, a realistic curved fault model was developed for the source-process analysis of the M7.3 event. The source model obtained for the M7.3 event with a seismic moment of 5.5 × 1019 Nm (Mw 7.1) had two significant ruptures. One rupture propagated toward the northeastern shallow region at 4 s after rupture initiation, and continued with large slips to approximately 16 s. This rupture caused a large slip region with a peak slip of 3.8 m that was located 10-30 km northeast of the hypocenter and reached the caldera of Mt. Aso. The contribution of the large slip region to the seismic waveforms was large at many stations. Another rupture propagated toward the surface from the hypocenter at 2-6 s, and then propagated toward the northeast along the near surface at 6-10 s. This rupture largely contributed to the seismic waveforms at the stations south of the fault and close to the hypocenter. A comparison with the results obtained using a single fault plane model demonstrate that the use of the curved fault model led to improved waveform fit at the stations south of the fault. The extent of the large near-surface slips in this source model for the M7.3 event is roughly consistent with the extent of the observed large surface ruptures. The source model obtained for the M6.5 event with a seismic moment of 1.7 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.1) had large slips in the region around the hypocenter and in the shallow region north-northeast of the hypocenter, both of which had a maximum slip of 0.7 m. The rupture of the M6.5 event propagated from the former region to the latter region at 1-6 s after rupture initiation, which is expected to have caused the strong ground motions due to the forward directivity effect at KMMH16 and surroundings. The occurrence of the near-surface large slips in this source model for the M6.5 event is consistent with the appearance of small surface cracks, which were observed by some residents.

A global search inversion for earthquake kinematic rupture history: Application to the 2000 western Tottori, Japan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatanesi, A.; Cirella, A.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2007-01-01

We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and risetime. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete wave number technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6); we confirm that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 14 and 18 km depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

The Modulus of Rupture from a Mathematical Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintela, P.; Sánchez, M. T.

2007-04-01

The goal of this work is to present a complete mathematical study about the three-point bending experiments and the modulus of rupture of brittle materials. We will present the mathematical model associated to three-point bending experiments and we will use the asymptotic expansion method to obtain a new formula to calculate the modulus of rupture. We will compare the modulus of rupture of porcelain obtained with the previous formula with that obtained by using the classic theoretical formula. Finally, we will also present one and three-dimensional numerical simulations to compute the modulus of rupture.

Composite Megathrust Rupture From Deep Interplate to Trench of the 2016 Solomon Islands Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shiann-Jong; Lin, Tzu-Chi; Feng, Kuan-Fu; Liu, Ting-Yu

2018-01-01

The deep plate boundary has usually been recognized as an aseismic area, with few large earthquakes occurring at the 60-100 km depth interface. In contrast, we use a finite-fault rupture model to demonstrate that large slip in the 2016 M7.9 Solomon Islands earthquake may have originated from the deep subduction interface and propagated all the way up to the trench. The initial rupture occurred at a depth of about 100 km, forming a deep asperity and then propagating updip to the middle-depth large coseismic slip area. Our proposed source model indicates that the depth-varying rupture characteristics of this event could shift to deeper depths with respect to other subduction zones. This result also implied that the deep subducting plate boundary could also be seismogenic, which might trigger rupture at the typical middle-depth stress-locked zone and develop into rare composite megathrust events.

Implications on 1+1 D runup modeling due to time features of the earthquake source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, M.; Riquelme, S.; Campos, J. A.

2017-12-01

The time characteristics of the seismic source are usually neglected in tsunami modeling, due to the difference in the time scale of both processes. Nonetheless, there are just a few analytical studies that intended to explain separately the role of the rise time and the rupture velocity. In this work, we extend an analytical 1+1D solution for the shoreline motion time series, from the static case to the dynamic case, by including both, rise time and rupture velocity. Results show that the static case correspond to a limit case of null rise time and infinite rupture velocity. Both parameters contribute in shifting the arrival time, but maximum run-up may be affected by very slow ruptures and long rise time. The analytical solution has been tested for the Nicaraguan tsunami earthquake, suggesting that the rupture was not slow enough to cause wave amplification to explain the high runup observations.

A method for simulating the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain.

PubMed

Deng, Yajun; Hu, Hongbing; Yu, Bo; Sun, Dongliang; Hou, Lei; Liang, Yongtu

2018-01-15

The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can pose a serious threat to human life and environment. In this research, a method has been proposed to simulate the release of natural gas from the rupture of high-pressure pipelines in any terrain. The process of gas releases from the rupture of a high-pressure pipeline is divided into three stages, namely the discharge, jet, and dispersion stages. Firstly, a discharge model is established to calculate the release rate of the orifice. Secondly, an improved jet model is proposed to obtain the parameters of the pseudo source. Thirdly, a fast-modeling method applicable to any terrain is introduced. Finally, based upon these three steps, a dispersion model, which can take any terrain into account, is established. Then, the dispersion scenarios of released gas in four different terrains are studied. Moreover, the effects of pipeline pressure, pipeline diameter, wind speed and concentration of hydrogen sulfide on the dispersion scenario in real terrain are systematically analyzed. The results provide significant guidance for risk assessment and contingency planning of a ruptured natural gas pipeline. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2017-01-01

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Modelling earthquake ruptures with dynamic off-fault damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, Kurama; Bhat, Harsha S.; Klinger, Yann; Rougier, Esteban

2017-04-01

Earthquake rupture modelling has been developed for producing scenario earthquakes. This includes understanding the source mechanisms and estimating far-field ground motion with given a priori constraints like fault geometry, constitutive law of the medium and friction law operating on the fault. It is necessary to consider all of the above complexities of a fault systems to conduct realistic earthquake rupture modelling. In addition to the complexity of the fault geometry in nature, coseismic off-fault damage, which is observed by a variety of geological and seismological methods, plays a considerable role on the resultant ground motion and its spectrum compared to a model with simple planer fault surrounded by purely elastic media. Ideally all of these complexities should be considered in earthquake modelling. State of the art techniques developed so far, however, cannot treat all of them simultaneously due to a variety of computational restrictions. Therefore, we adopt the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which can effectively deal with pre-existing complex fault geometry such as fault branches and kinks and can describe coseismic off-fault damage generated during the dynamic rupture. The advantage of FDEM is that it can handle a wide range of length scales, from metric to kilometric scale, corresponding to the off-fault damage and complex fault geometry respectively. We used the FDEM-based software tool called HOSSedu (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite - Educational Version) for the earthquake rupture modelling, which was developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We firstly conducted the cross-validation of this new methodology against other conventional numerical schemes such as the finite difference method (FDM), the spectral element method (SEM) and the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), to evaluate the accuracy with various element sizes and artificial viscous damping values. We demonstrate the capability of the FDEM tool for modelling earthquake ruptures. We then modelled earthquake ruptures allowing for coseismic off-fault damage with appropriate fracture nucleation and growth criteria. We studied the effect of different conditions such as rupture speed (sub-Rayleigh or supershear), the orientation of the initial maximum principal stress with respect to the fault and the magnitude of the initial stress (to mimic depth). The comparison between the sub-Rayleigh and supershear case shows that the coseismic off-fault damage is enhanced in the supershear case when compared with the sub-Rayleigh case. The orientation of the maximum principal stress also has significant difference such that the dynamic off-fault cracking is more likely to occur on the extensional side of the fault for high principal stress orientation. It is found that the coseismic off-fault damage reduces the rupture speed due to the dissipation of the energy by dynamic off-fault cracking generated in the vicinity of the rupture front. In terms of the ground motion amplitude spectra it is shown that the high-frequency radiation is enhanced by the coseismic off-fault damage though it is quickly attenuated. This is caused by the intricate superposition of the radiation generated by the off-fault damage and the perturbation of the rupture speed on the main fault.

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; ,

2015-01-01

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

Size-Dependent Rupture Strain of Elastically Stretchable Metal Conductors

PubMed Central

Graudejus, O.; Jia, Z.; Li, T.; Wagner, S.

2012-01-01

Experiments show that the rupture strain of gold conductors on elastomers decreases as the conductors are made long and narrow. Rupture is caused by the irreversible coalescence of microcracks into one long crack. A mechanics model identifies a critical crack length ℓcr, above which the long crack propagates across the entire conductor width. ℓcr depends on the fracture toughness of the gold film and the width of the conductor. The model provides guidance for the design of highly stretchable conductors. PMID:22773917

The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, Morgan T.; Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin; Powers, Peter M.

2014-01-01

We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We employ a parallel simulated annealing algorithm to solve for the long‐term rate of all ruptures that extend through the seismogenic thickness on major mapped faults in California while simultaneously satisfying available slip‐rate, paleoseismic event‐rate, and magnitude‐distribution constraints. The inversion methodology enables the relaxation of fault segmentation and allows for the incorporation of multifault ruptures, which are needed to remove magnitude‐distribution misfits that were present in the previous model, UCERF2. The grand inversion is more objective than past methodologies, as it eliminates the need to prescriptively assign rupture rates. It also provides a means to easily update the model as new data become available. In addition to UCERF3 model results, we present verification of the grand inversion, including sensitivity tests, tuning of equation set weights, convergence metrics, and a synthetic test. These tests demonstrate that while individual rupture rates are poorly resolved by the data, integrated quantities such as magnitude–frequency distributions and, most importantly, hazard metrics, are much more robust.

Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Robert W.; Aagaard, Brad T.

2011-01-01

Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010) and require, as inputs, only a general description of the fault location and geometry, event magnitude, and hypocenter, as would be done for a scenario event. For each rupture model, two Southern California Earthquake Center three-dimensional community seismic velocity models (CVM-4m and CVM-H62) are used, resulting in a total of 10 ground-motion simulations, which we compare with recorded ground motions. While the details of the motions vary across the simulations, the median levels match the observed peak ground velocities reasonably well, with the standard deviation of the residuals generally within 50% of the median. Simulations with the CVM-4m model yield somewhat lower variance than those with the CVM-H62 model. Both models tend to overpredict motions in the San Diego region and underpredict motions in the Mojave desert. Within the greater Los Angeles basin, the CVM-4m model generally matches the level of observed motions, whereas the CVM-H62 model tends to overpredict the motions, particularly in the southern portion of the basin. The variance in the peak velocity residuals is lowest for a rupture that has significant shallow slip (<5 km depth), whereas the variance in the residuals is greatest for ruptures with large asperities below 10 km depth. Overall, these results are encouraging and provide confidence in the predictive capabilities of the simulation methodology, while also suggesting some regions in which the seismic velocity models may need improvement.

Flexible kinematic earthquake rupture inversion of tele-seismic waveforms: Application to the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.; Kasahara, A.

2017-12-01

The kinematic earthquake rupture models are useful to derive statistics and scaling properties of the large and great earthquakes. However, the kinematic rupture models for the same earthquake are often different from one another. Such sensitivity of the modeling prevents us to understand the statistics and scaling properties of the earthquakes. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) introduces the uncertainty of Green's function into the tele-seismic waveform inversion, and shows that the stable spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate can be obtained by using an empirical Bayesian scheme. One of the unsolved problems in the inversion rises from the modeling error originated from an uncertainty of a fault-model setting. Green's function near the nodal plane of focal mechanism is known to be sensitive to the slight change of the assumed fault geometry, and thus the spatiotemporal distribution of slip-rate should be distorted by the modeling error originated from the uncertainty of the fault model. We propose a new method accounting for the complexity in the fault geometry by additionally solving the focal mechanism on each space knot. Since a solution of finite source inversion gets unstable with an increasing of flexibility of the model, we try to estimate a stable spatiotemporal distribution of focal mechanism in the framework of Yagi and Fukahata (2011). We applied the proposed method to the 52 tele-seismic P-waveforms of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake. The inverted-potency distribution shows unilateral rupture propagation toward southwest of the epicenter, and the spatial variation of the focal mechanisms shares the same pattern as the fault-curvature along the tectonic fabric. On the other hand, the broad pattern of rupture process, including the direction of rupture propagation, cannot be reproduced by an inversion analysis under the assumption that the faulting occurred on a single flat plane. These results show that the modeling error caused by simplifying the fault model is non-negligible in the tele-seismic waveform inversion of the 2013 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake.

Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, Karen R.

2014-01-01

An earthquake occurs when rock that has been deformed under stress rebounds elastically along a fault plane (Gilbert, 1884; Reid, 1911), radiating seismic waves through the surrounding earth. Rupture along the entire fault surface does not spontaneously occur at the same time, however. Rather the rupture starts in one tiny area, the rupture nucleation zone, and spreads sequentially along the fault. Like a row of dominoes, one bit of rebounding fault triggers the next. This triggering is understood to occur because of the large dynamic stresses at the tip of an active seismic rupture. The importance of these crack tip stresses is a central question in earthquake physics. The crack tip stresses are minimally important, for example, in the time predictable earthquake model (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980), which holds that prior to rupture stresses are comparable to fault strength in many locations on the future rupture plane, with bits of variation. The stress/strength ratio is highest at some point, which is where the earthquake nucleates. This model does not require any special conditions or processes at the nucleation site; the whole fault is essentially ready for rupture at the same time. The fault tip stresses ensure that the rupture occurs as a single rapid earthquake, but the fact that fault tip stresses are high is not particularly relevant since the stress at most points does not need to be raised by much. Under this model it should technically be possible to forecast earthquakes based on the stress-renewaql concept, or estimates of when the fault as a whole will reach the critical stress level, a practice used in official hazard mapping (Field, 2008). This model also indicates that physical precursors may be present and detectable, since stresses are unusually high over a significant area before a large earthquake.

Dynamic ruptures on faults of complex geometry: insights from numerical simulations, from large-scale curvature to small-scale fractal roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.

2016-12-01

The geometry of faults is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. As buried structures being not directly observable, their complex shapes may only be inferred from surface traces, if available, or through geophysical methods, such as reflection seismology. As a consequence, most studies aiming at assessing the potential hazard of faults rely on idealized fault models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are known to be wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. The influence of roughness on the earthquake rupture process is currently a driving topic in the computational seismology community. From the numerical point of view, rough faults problems are challenging problems that require optimized codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computing infrastructure and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physically, simulated ruptures hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Incorporating fault geometry on all scales may thus be crucial to model realistic earthquake source processes and to estimate more accurately seismic hazard. In this study, we use the software package SeisSol, based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, to run our numerical simulations. SeisSol allows solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem and the wave propagation problem with high-order accuracy in space and time efficiently on large-scale machines. In this study, the influence of fault roughness on dynamic rupture style (e.g. onset of supershear transition, rupture front coherence, propagation of self-healing pulses, etc) at different length scales is investigated by analyzing ruptures on faults of varying roughness spectral content. In particular, we investigate the existence of a minimum roughness length scale in terms of rupture inherent length scales below which the rupture ceases to be sensible. Finally, the effect of fault geometry on ground-motions, in the near-field, is considered. Our simulations feature a classical linear slip weakening on the fault and a viscoplastic constitutive model off the fault. The benefits of using a more elaborate fast velocity-weakening friction law will also be considered.

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake revealed by multiple seismic wavefield simulations: slow rupture propagation on a geometrically complex fault network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, Y.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hamling, I. J.; D'Anastasio, E.; Fry, B.

2017-12-01

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake generated ground motions over 1g across a 200-km long region, resulted in multiple onshore and offshore fault ruptures, a profusion of triggered landslides, and a regional tsunami. Here we examine the rupture evolution during the Kaikōura earthquake multiple kinematic modelling methods based on local strong-motion and high-rate GPS data. Our kinematic models constrained by near-source data capture, in detail, a complex pattern of slowly (Vr < 2km/s) propagating rupture from the south to north, with over half of the moment release occurring in the northern source region, mostly on the Kekerengu fault, 60 seconds after the origin time. Interestingly, both models indicate rupture re-activation on the Kekerengu fault with the time separation of 11 seconds. We further conclude that most near-source waveforms can be explained by slip on the crustal faults, with little (<8%) or no contribution from the subduction interface.

Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

2017-04-01

To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

Surface rupture and vertical deformation associated with 20 May 2016 M6 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, Ryan; Clark, Dan; King, Tamarah; Quigley, Mark

2017-04-01

Surface-rupturing earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) occur infrequently, though when they occur in heavily populated regions the damage and loss of life can be severe (e.g., 2001 Bhuj earthquake). Quantifying the surface-rupture characteristics of these low-probability events is therefore important, both to improve understanding of the on- and off-fault deformation field near the rupture trace and to provide additional constraints on earthquake magnitude to rupture length and displacement, which are critical inputs for seismic hazard calculations. This investigation focuses on the 24 August 2016 M6.0 Petermann Ranges earthquake, Northern Territory, Australia. We use 0.3-0.5 m high-resolution optical Worldview satellite imagery to map the trace of the surface rupture associated with the earthquake. From our mapping, we are able to trace the rupture over a length of 20 km, trending NW, and exhibiting apparent north-side-up motion. To quantify the magnitude of vertical surface deformation, we use stereo Worldview images processed using NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline software to generate pre- and post-earthquake digital terrain models with a spatial resolution of 1.5 to 2 m. The surface scarp is apparent in much of the post-event digital terrain model. Initial efforts to difference the pre- and post-event digital terrain models yield noisy results, though we detect vertical deformation of 0.2 to 0.6 m over length scales of 100 m to 1 km from the mapped trace of the rupture. Ongoing efforts to remove ramps and perform spatial smoothing will improve our understanding of the extent and pattern of vertical deformation. Additionally, we will compare our results with InSAR and field measurements obtained following the earthquake.

Pore pressure may control rupture propagation of the 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake from the Kunlun fault to the Kunlun Pass fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Wang, W.; He, J.

2016-12-01

The 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake nucleated on the west-east tending Kunlun strike-slip fault in center of the Tibetan plateau. When the rupture propagated eastward near the Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault, this earthquake jumped to the Kunlun Pass fault, a less matured fault that, due to the geometric orientation, was obviously clamped by the coseismic deformation before its rupture. To investigate the possible mechanism for the rupture jump, we updated the coseismic rupture model from a joint inversion of the geological, geodetic and seismic wave data. Constrained with the rupture process, a three-dimensional finite element model was developed to calculate the failure stress from elastic and poroelastic deformation of the crust during the rupture propagation. Results show that just before the rupture reached the conjunction of the Xidatan segment and the Kunlun Pass fault, the failure stress induced by elastic deformation is indeed larger on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault than on the Kunlun Pass fault. However, if the pore pressure resulted from undrained poroelastic deformation was invoked, the failure stress is significantly increased on the Kunlun Pass fault. Given a reasonable bound on fault friction and on poroelastic parameters, it can be seen that the poroelastic failure stress is 0.3-0.9 Mpa greater on the Kunlun Pass fault than on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun fault. We therefore argue that during the rupture process of the 2001 Mw=7.8 Kokoxili earthquake, pore pressure may play an important role on controlling the rupture propagation from the Kunlun fault to the Kunlun Pass fault.

Detailed Mapping of Historical and Preinstrumental Earthquake Ruptures in Central Asia Using Multi-Scale, Multi-Platform Photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, A. J.; Walker, R. T.; Parsons, B.; Ren, Z.; Ainscoe, E. A.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; Mackenzie, D.; Arrowsmith, R.; Gruetzner, C.

2016-12-01

In regions of the planet with long historical records, known past seismic events can be attributed to specific fault sources through the identification and measurement of single-event scarps in high-resolution imagery and topography. The level of detail captured by modern remote sensing is now sufficient to map and measure complete earthquake ruptures that were originally only sparsely mapped or overlooked entirely. We can thus extend the record of mapped earthquake surface ruptures into the preinstrumental period and capture the wealth of information preserved in the numerous historical earthquake ruptures throughout regions like Central Asia. We investigate two major late 19th and early 20th century earthquakes that are well located macroseismically but whose fault sources had proved enigmatic in the absence of detailed imagery and topography. We use high-resolution topographic models derived from photogrammetry of satellite, low-altitude, and ground-based optical imagery to map and measure the coseismic scarps of the 1889 M8.3 Chilik, Kazakhstan and 1932 M7.6 Changma, China earthquakes. Measurement of the scarps on the combined imagery and topography reveals the extent and slip distribution of coseismic rupture in each of these events, showing both earthquakes involved multiple faults with variable kinematics. We use a 1-m elevation model of the Changma fault derived from Pleiades satellite imagery to map the changing kinematics of the 1932 rupture along strike. For the 1889 Chilik earthquake we use 1.5-m SPOT-6 satellite imagery to produce a regional elevation model of the fault ruptures, from which we identify three distinct, intersecting fault systems that each have >20 km of fresh, single-event scarps. Along sections of each of these faults we construct high resolution (330 points per sq m) elevation models using quadcopter- and helikite-mounted cameras. From the detailed topography we measure single-event oblique offsets of 6-10 m, consistent with the large inferred magnitude of the 1889 Chilik event. High resolution, photogrammetric topography offers a low-cost, effective way to thoroughly map rupture traces and measure coseismic displacements for past fault ruptures, extending our record of coseismic displacements into a past rich with formerly sparsely documented ruptures.

Ground Motion Simulation for a Large Active Fault System using Empirical Green's Function Method and the Strong Motion Prediction Recipe - a Case Study of the Noubi Fault Zone -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuriyama, M.; Kumamoto, T.; Fujita, M.

2005-12-01

The 1995 Hyogo-ken Nambu Earthquake (1995) near Kobe, Japan, spurred research on strong motion prediction. To mitigate damage caused by large earthquakes, a highly precise method of predicting future strong motion waveforms is required. In this study, we applied empirical Green's function method to forward modeling in order to simulate strong ground motion in the Noubi Fault zone and examine issues related to strong motion prediction for large faults. Source models for the scenario earthquakes were constructed using the recipe of strong motion prediction (Irikura and Miyake, 2001; Irikura et al., 2003). To calculate the asperity area ratio of a large fault zone, the results of a scaling model, a scaling model with 22% asperity by area, and a cascade model were compared, and several rupture points and segmentation parameters were examined for certain cases. A small earthquake (Mw: 4.6) that occurred in northern Fukui Prefecture in 2004 were examined as empirical Green's function, and the source spectrum of this small event was found to agree with the omega-square scaling law. The Nukumi, Neodani, and Umehara segments of the 1891 Noubi Earthquake were targeted in the present study. The positions of the asperity area and rupture starting points were based on the horizontal displacement distributions reported by Matsuda (1974) and the fault branching pattern and rupture direction model proposed by Nakata and Goto (1998). Asymmetry in the damage maps for the Noubi Earthquake was then examined. We compared the maximum horizontal velocities for each case that had a different rupture starting point. In the case, rupture started at the center of the Nukumi Fault, while in another case, rupture started on the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault; the scaling model showed an approximately 2.1-fold difference between these cases at observation point FKI005 of K-Net. This difference is considered to relate to the directivity effect associated with the direction of rupture propagation. Moreover, it was clarified that the horizontal velocities by assuming the cascade model was underestimated more than one standard deviation of empirical relation by Si and Midorikawa (1999). The scaling and cascade models showed an approximately 6.4-fold difference for the case, in which the rupture started along the southeastern edge of the Umehara Fault at observation point GIF020. This difference is significantly large in comparison with the effect of different rupture starting points, and shows that it is important to base scenario earthquake assumptions on active fault datasets before establishing the source characterization model. The distribution map of seismic intensity for the 1891 Noubi Earthquake also suggests that the synthetic waveforms in the southeastern Noubi Fault zone may be underestimated. Our results indicate that outer fault parameters (e.g., earthquake moment) related to the construction of scenario earthquakes influence strong motion prediction, rather than inner fault parameters such as the rupture starting point. Based on these methods, we will predict strong motion for approximately 140 to 150 km of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line.

A statistical kinematic source inversion approach based on the QUESO library for uncertainty quantification and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, Olaf; McDougall, Damon; Mai, Martin; Babuska, Ivo

2014-05-01

Seismic, often augmented with geodetic data, are frequently used to invert for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip along a rupture plane. The resulting images of the slip evolution for a single event, inferred by different research teams, often vary distinctly, depending on the adopted inversion approach and rupture model parameterization. This observation raises the question, which of the provided kinematic source inversion solutions is most reliable and most robust, and — more generally — how accurate are fault parameterization and solution predictions? These issues are not included in "standard" source inversion approaches. Here, we present a statistical inversion approach to constrain kinematic rupture parameters from teleseismic body waves. The approach is based a) on a forward-modeling scheme that computes synthetic (body-)waves for a given kinematic rupture model, and b) on the QUESO (Quantification of Uncertainty for Estimation, Simulation, and Optimization) library that uses MCMC algorithms and Bayes theorem for sample selection. We present Bayesian inversions for rupture parameters in synthetic earthquakes (i.e. for which the exact rupture history is known) in an attempt to identify the cross-over at which further model discretization (spatial and temporal resolution of the parameter space) is no longer attributed to a decreasing misfit. Identification of this cross-over is of importance as it reveals the resolution power of the studied data set (i.e. teleseismic body waves), enabling one to constrain kinematic earthquake rupture histories of real earthquakes at a resolution that is supported by data. In addition, the Bayesian approach allows for mapping complete posterior probability density functions of the desired kinematic source parameters, thus enabling us to rigorously assess the uncertainties in earthquake source inversions.

Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Boiselet, Aurélien

2017-10-01

Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ˜ 15 mm yr-1 north-south extension. Modeling results show that geological, seismological and paleoseismological rates of earthquakes cannot be reconciled with only single-fault-rupture scenarios and require hypothesizing a large spectrum of possible FtF rupture sets. In order to fit the imposed regional Gutenberg-Richter (GR) MFD target, some of the slip along certain faults needs to be accommodated either with interseismic creep or as post-seismic processes. Furthermore, computed individual faults' MFDs differ depending on the position of each fault in the system and the possible FtF ruptures associated with the fault. Finally, a comparison of modeled earthquake rupture rates with those deduced from the regional and local earthquake catalog statistics and local paleoseismological data indicates a better fit with the FtF rupture set constructed with a distance criteria based on 5 km rather than 3 km, suggesting a high connectivity of faults in the WCR fault system.

Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2017-12-01

Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) Stress Rupture Test: Part 2. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Richard; Flynn, Howard; Forth, Scott; Greene, Nathanael; Kezirian, Michael; Varanauski, Don; Leifeste, Mark; Yoder, Tommy; Woodworth, Warren

2010-01-01

One of the major concerns for the aging Space Shuttle fleet is the stress rupture life of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). Stress rupture life of a COPY has been defined as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress levels and time. To assist in the evaluation of the aging COPVs in the Orbiter fleet an analytical reliability model was developed. The actual data used to construct this model was from testing of COPVs constructed of similar, but not exactly same materials and pressure cycles as used on Orbiter vessels. Since no actual Orbiter COPV stress rupture data exists the Space Shuttle Program decided to run a stress rupture test to compare to model predictions. Due to availability of spares, the testing was unfortunately limited to one 40" vessel. The stress rupture test was performed at maximum operating pressure at an elevated temperature to accelerate aging. The test was performed in two phases. The first phase, 130 F, a moderately accelerated test designed to achieve the midpoint of the model predicted point reliability. A more aggressive second phase, performed at 160 F, was designed to determine if the test article will exceed the 95% confidence interval ofthe model. In phase 3, the vessel pressure was increased to above maximum operating pressure while maintaining the phase 2 temperature. After reaching enough effectives hours to reach the 99.99% confidence level of the model phase 4 testing began when the temperature was increased to greater than 170 F. The vessel was maintained at phase 4 conditions until it failed after over 3 million effect hours. This paper will discuss the results of this test, it's implications and possible follow-on testing.

A Deterministic Methodology for Discriminating between Earthquakes and Underground Nuclear Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-01

rupture (right) to represent a bilat- eral rupture is described in the text Page 48 50 51 56 60 3.11 Far-field radiation patterns for the bi ...particularly effective for detecting, isolating and timing the various seismic phases ^g’ p*’ pn’ Sg’ s*’ Sn , etc.) that are recorded on event seismograms in...of the stress field during rupture. 5. A criterion allowing the rupture to heal . All earthquake models must, implicitly or explicitly, deal with

Depth varying rupture properties during the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Simons, Mark; Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Fielding, Eric; Liang, Cunren; Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Riel, Bryan; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Samsonov, Sergey V.

2017-09-01

On April 25th 2015, the Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake ruptured a portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust underlying Kathmandu and surrounding regions. We develop kinematic slip models of the Gorkha earthquake using both a regularized multi-time-window (MTW) approach and an unsmoothed Bayesian formulation, constrained by static and high rate GPS observations, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offset images, interferometric SAR (InSAR), and teleseismic body wave records. These models indicate that Kathmandu is located near the updip limit of fault slip and approximately 20 km south of the centroid of fault slip. Fault slip propagated unilaterally along-strike in an ESE direction for approximately 140 km with a 60 km cross-strike extent. The deeper portions of the fault are characterized by a larger ratio of high frequency (0.03-0.2 Hz) to low frequency slip than the shallower portions. From both the MTW and Bayesian results, we can resolve depth variations in slip characteristics, with higher slip roughness, higher rupture velocity, longer rise time and higher complexity of subfault source time functions in the deeper extents of the rupture. The depth varying nature of rupture characteristics suggests that the up-dip portions are characterized by relatively continuous rupture, while the down-dip portions may be better characterized by a cascaded rupture. The rupture behavior and the tectonic setting indicate that the earthquake may have ruptured both fully seismically locked and a deeper transitional portions of the collision interface, analogous to what has been seen in major subduction zone earthquakes.

Relation between energy radiation ratio and rupture speed in numerically simulated earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H.; Lapusta, N.; Kanamori, H.

2011-12-01

One of the prominent questions in seismology is energy partitioning during an earthquake. Venkataraman and Kanamori [2004] discussed radiation ratio η_R, the ratio of radiated energy E_R to partial strain energy change ΔW_0 which is the total released strain energy minus the energy that would have been dissipated if a fault had slipped at the final stress. They found positive correlation between η_R and rupture speed in large earthquakes, and compared these data with theoretical estimates from simplified models. The relation between η_R and rupture speed is of great interest since both quantities can be estimated independently although there are large uncertainties. We conduct numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures and study the obtained energy partitioning (and η_R) and averaged rupture speeds V_r. So far, we have considered problems based on TPV103 from the SCEC/USGS Spontaneous Rupture Code Verification Project [Harris et al., 2009, http://scecdata.usc.edu/cvws/], which is a 3-D problem with the possibility of remarkable rate weakening at coseismic slip rates caused by flash heating of microscopic asperities [Rice, 1999]. We study the effect of background shear stress level τ_b and the manner in which rupture is arrested, either in rate-strengthening or unbreakable areas of the fault. Note that rupture speed at each fault point is defined when the rupture is still in progress, while η_R is defined after all dynamic processes such as propagation of a rupture front, healing fronts, and seismic waves have been completed. Those complexities may cause a difference from the theoretical estimates based on simple models, an issue we explore in this study. Overall, our simulations produce the relation between η_R and V_r broadly consistent with the study of Venkataraman and Kanamori (2004) for natural earthquakes and the corresponding theoretical estimates. The model by Mott [1948] agrees best with the cases studied so far, although it is not rigorously correct [Freund, 1990]. For example, a case which is similar to TPV103 except in the nucleation procedure yields a pulse-like rupture with a spatially averaged rupture speed V_r = 0.59 c_s and η_R = 0.32, while the theoretical estimates [Fossum and Freund, 1975 for mode II and Kostrov, 1966; Ehselby, 1969 for mode III] predict η_R of about 0.5 for this rupture speed. This difference is not significant compared with the large observational error. As τ_b increases, V_r increases monotonically, while η_R exhibits more complex behavior: it increases with τ_b for pulse-like ruptures, decreases by about 0.1 at the transition to crack-like ruptures, and then increases again. Frictional dissipation is significant when a rupture front reaches a rate-strengthening region. If the barrier is changed to an unbreakable region, η_R decreases and V_r/c_s increases at most by 0.3 and 0.1, respectively. Although sharper arrest of rupture causes larger E_R per seismic moment due to the stopping phases, ΔW_0 per seismic moment increases more remarkably due to large wavenumber components in final slip distribution.

Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, R.W.; Pitarka, A.

2010-01-01

This paper describes refinements to the hybrid broadband ground-motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2004), which combines a deterministic approach at low frequencies (f 1 Hz). In our approach, fault rupture is represented kinematically and incorporates spatial heterogeneity in slip, rupture speed, and rise time. The prescribed slip distribution is constrained to follow an inverse wavenumber-squared fall-off and the average rupture speed is set at 80% of the local shear-wave velocity, which is then adjusted such that the rupture propagates faster in regions of high slip and slower in regions of low slip. We use a Kostrov-like slip-rate function having a rise time proportional to the square root of slip, with the average rise time across the entire fault constrained empirically. Recent observations from large surface rupturing earthquakes indicate a reduction of rupture propagation speed and lengthening of rise time in the near surface, which we model by applying a 70% reduction of the rupture speed and increasing the rise time by a factor of 2 in a zone extending from the surface to a depth of 5 km. We demonstrate the fidelity of the technique by modeling the strong-motion recordings from the Imperial Valley, Loma Prieta, Landers, and Northridge earthquakes.

Seismic constraints on the architecture of the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault: Implications for the length and magnitude of future earthquake ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahakian, Valerie; Bormann, Jayne; Driscoll, Neal; Harding, Alistair; Kent, Graham; Wesnousky, Steve

2017-03-01

The Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon (NIRC) fault zone is an active strike-slip fault system within the Pacific-North American plate boundary in Southern California, located in close proximity to populated regions of San Diego, Orange, and Los Angeles counties. Prior to this study, the NIRC fault zone's continuity and geometry were not well constrained. Nested marine seismic reflection data with different vertical resolutions are employed to characterize the offshore fault architecture. Four main fault strands are identified offshore, separated by three main stepovers along strike, all of which are 2 km or less in width. Empirical studies of historical ruptures worldwide show that earthquakes have ruptured through stepovers with this offset. Models of Coulomb stress change along the fault zone are presented to examine the potential extent of future earthquake ruptures on the fault zone, which appear to be dependent on the location of rupture initiation and fault geometry at the stepovers. These modeling results show that the southernmost stepover between the La Jolla and Torrey Pines fault strands may act as an inhibitor to throughgoing rupture due to the stepover width and change in fault geometry across the stepover; however, these results still suggest that rupture along the entire fault zone is possible.

Heterogeneous rupture on homogenous faults: Three-dimensional spontaneous rupture simulations with thermal pressurization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

2008-11-01

To understand role of fluid on earthquake rupture processes, we investigated effects of thermal pressurization on spatial variation of dynamic rupture by computing spontaneous rupture propagation on a rectangular fault. We found thermal pressurization can cause heterogeneity of rupture even on a fault of uniform properties. On drained faults, tractions drop linearly with increasing slip in the same way everywhere. However, by changing the drained condition to an undrained one, the slip-weakening curves become non-linear and depend on locations on faults with small shear zone thickness w, and the dynamic frictional stresses vary spatially and temporally. Consequently, the super-shear transition fault length decreases for small w, and the final slip distribution can have some peaks regardless of w, especially on undrained faults. These effects should be taken into account of determining dynamic rupture parameters and modeling earthquake cycles when the presence of fluid is suggested in the source regions.

Numerical Models of Stopping Ruptures on a Bimaterial Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, A. M.; Ampuero, J.

2003-12-01

Using a cross-correlation earthquake relocation technique, Rubin and Gillard (2000) and Rubin (2002) found that the nearest aftershocks of microearthquakes on the San Andreas fault were much more likely (by a ratio of nearly 3:1) to occur to the NW of the mainshock than to the SE. They attributed this asymmetry to the material contrast across the fault and the resulting dynamical reduction in normal stress near the rupture front propagating to the SE (the front moving in the direction of slip of the more compliant medium). Specifically, it was hypothesized that regions of the fault far enough from failure to resist this extra dynamical "kick" would be that much farther from failure once those dynamical stresses decayed. However, analytical (steady-state) models of propagating slip on a bimaterial interface (Weertman, 1980) show that, as with the static stress field, normal stress changes occur only behind the rupture front. The proposed explanation works most simply if the region ahead of the SE rupture front experiences a transient stress favorable for slip. In principal this stress transient could be associated with either rupture growth or arrest. To investigate this further, we ran 2-D numerical models of slip on a bimaterial interface with slip-weakening friction, using the code of Cochard and Rice (2000). The ruptures spontaneously accelerate to the generalized Rayleigh wave speed of the medium, when such exists. During this growth phase, large tensile stresses are indeed restricted to regions of large slip velocity behind the SE-propagating rupture front. Ahead of the rupture front the normal stresses are smaller and compressive. If the rupture front is stopped abruptly, the short-wavelength tensile stress pulse continues to propagate at roughly the same velocity. The above comments also apply in an anti-symmetric sense to the NW rupture front, although there the slip speeds and normal stress changes are lower. If the rupture is stopped by a more gradual reduction in the loading stress, the moving tensile pulse can spawn a decaying slip pulse at the SE front but not the NW. If this slip pulse marks the furthest extent of slip, the resulting static stress field is quite asymmetric even for a symmetric initial stress, lying on the failure envelope at the NW end of the rupture but well below it at the SE end. These results are at least permissive of the explanation proposed by Rubin and Gillard. For weaker slip pulses (due to any of a number of factors contributing to smaller maximum slip speeds), the furthest extent of slip near the SE rupture front can be driven by the stopping phase arriving from the NW end of the crack. Under such conditions the final stress field is more symmetric. We will be running models using heterogeneous stress fields to explore these questions further, and hope to use rate-and-state friction to investigate the observed temporal decay of the aftershock asymmetry.

Kinematic inversion of the 2008 Mw7 Iwate-Miyagi (Japan) earthquake by two independent methods: Sensitivity and resolution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallovic, Frantisek; Cirella, Antonella; Plicka, Vladimir; Piatanesi, Alessio

2013-04-01

On 14 June 2008, UTC 23:43, the border of Iwate and Miyagi prefectures was hit by an Mw7 reverse-fault type crustal earthquake. The event is known to have the largest ground acceleration observed to date (~4g), which was recorded at station IWTH25. We analyze observed strong motion data with the objective to image the event rupture process and the associated uncertainties. Two different slip inversion approaches are used, the difference between the two methods being only in the parameterization of the source model. To minimize mismodeling of the propagation effects we use crustal model obtained by full waveform inversion of aftershock records in the frequency range between 0.05-0.3 Hz. In the first method, based on linear formulation, the parameters are represented by samples of slip velocity functions along the (finely discretized) fault in a time window spanning the whole rupture duration. Such a source description is very general with no prior constraint on the nucleation point, rupture velocity, shape of the velocity function. Thus the inversion could resolve very general (unexpected) features of the rupture evolution, such as multiple rupturing, rupture-propagation reversals, etc. On the other hand, due to the relatively large number of model parameters, the inversion result is highly non-unique, with possibility of obtaining a biased solution. The second method is a non-linear global inversion technique, where each point on the fault can slip only once, following a prescribed functional form of the source time function. We invert simultaneously for peak slip velocity, slip angle, rise time and rupture time by allowing a given range of variability for each kinematic model parameter. For this reason, unlike to the linear inversion approach, the rupture process needs a smaller number of parameters to be retrieved, and is more constrained with a proper control on the allowed range of parameter values. In order to test the resolution and reliability of the retrieved models, we present a thorough analysis of the performance of the two inversion approaches. In fact, depending on the inversion strategy and the intrinsic 'non-uniqueness' of the inverse problem, the final slip maps and distribution of rupture onset times are generally different, sometimes even incompatible with each other. Great emphasis is devoted to the uncertainty estimate of both techniques. Thus we do not compare only the best fitting models, but their 'compatibility' in terms of the uncertainty limits.

The 2016 Kaikōura earthquake: Simultaneous rupture of the subduction interface and overlying faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Teng; Wei, Shengji; Shi, Xuhua; Qiu, Qiang; Li, Linlin; Peng, Dongju; Weldon, Ray J.; Barbot, Sylvain

2018-01-01

The distribution of slip during an earthquake and how it propagates among faults in the subduction system play a major role in seismic and tsunami hazards, yet they are poorly understood because offshore observations are often lacking. Here we derive the slip distribution and rupture evolution during the 2016 Mw 7.9 Kaikōura (New Zealand) earthquake that reconcile the surface rupture, space geodetic measurements, seismological and tsunami waveform records. We use twelve fault segments, with eleven in the crust and one on the megathrust interface, to model the geodetic data and match the major features of the complex surface ruptures. Our modeling result indicates that a large portion of the moment is distributed on the subduction interface, making a significant contribution to the far field surface deformation and teleseismic body waves. The inclusion of local strong motion and teleseismic waveform data in the joint inversion reveals a unilateral rupture towards northeast with a relatively low averaged rupture speed of ∼1.5 km/s. The first 30 s of the rupture took place on the crustal faults with oblique slip motion and jumped between fault segments that have large differences in strike and dip. The peak moment release occurred at ∼65 s, corresponding to simultaneous rupture of both plate interface and the overlying splay faults with rake angle changes progressively from thrust to strike-slip. The slip on the Papatea fault produced more than 2 m of offshore uplift, making a major contribution to the tsunami at the Kaikōura station, while the northeastern end of the rupture can explain the main features at the Wellington station. Our inversions and simulations illuminate complex up-dip rupture behavior that should be taken into consideration in both seismic and tsunami hazard assessment. The extreme complex rupture behavior also brings new challenges to the earthquake dynamic simulations and understanding the physics of earthquakes.

Demonstration of improved seismic source inversion method of tele-seismic body wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagi, Y.; Okuwaki, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic rupture inversion of tele-seismic body wave has been widely applied to studies of large earthquakes. In general, tele-seismic body wave contains information of overall rupture process of large earthquake, while the tele-seismic body wave is inappropriate for analyzing a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake. Recently, the quality and quantity of tele-seismic data and the inversion method has been greatly improved. Improved data and method enable us to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake even if we use only tele-seismic body wave. In this study, we demonstrate the ability of the improved data and method through analyses of the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake (Mw 6.2) and the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake (Mw 7.0) that have been well investigated by using the InSAR data set and the field observations. We assumed the rupture occurring on a single fault plane model inferred from the moment tensor solutions and the aftershock distribution. We constructed spatiotemporal discretized slip-rate functions with patches arranged as closely as possible. We performed inversions using several fault models and found that the spatiotemporal location of large slip-rate area was robust. In the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to southwest during the first 5 s. At 5 s after the origin time, the main rupture started to propagate toward northeast. First episode and second episode correspond to rupture propagation along the Hinagu fault and the Futagawa fault, respectively. In the 2016 Rieti, Italy earthquake, the slip-rate distribution shows that the rupture propagated to up-dip direction during the first 2 s, and then rupture propagated toward northwest. From both analyses, we propose that the spatiotemporal slip-rate distribution estimated by improved inversion method of tele-seismic body wave has enough information to study a detailed rupture process of M6 7 class earthquake.

Morphological characteristics associated with rupture risk of multiple intracranial aneurysms.

PubMed

Wang, Guang-Xian; Liu, Lan-Lan; Wen, Li; Cao, Yun-Xing; Pei, Yu-Chun; Zhang, Dong

2017-10-01

To identify the morphological parameters that are related to intracranial aneurysms (IAs) rupture using a case-control model. A total of 107 patients with multiple IAs and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage between August 2011 and February 2017 were enrolled in this study. Characteristics of IAs location, shape, neck width, perpendicular height, depth, maximum size, flow angle, parent vessel diameter (PVD), aspect ratio (AR) and size ratio (SR) were evaluated using CT angiography. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with IAs rupture. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed on the final model, and the optimal thresholds were obtained. IAs located in the internal carotid artery (ICA) was associated with a negative risk of rupture, whereas AR, SR1 (height/PVD) and SR2 (depth/PVD) were associated with increased risk of rupture. When SR was calculated differently, the odds ratio values of these factors were also different. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that AR, SR1 and SR2 had cut-off values of 1.01, 1.48 and 1.40, respectively. SR3 (maximum size/PVD) was not associated with IAs rupture. IAs located in the ICA are associated with a negative risk of rupture, while high AR (>1.01), SR1 (>1.48) or SR2 (>1.40) are risk factors for multiple IAs rupture. Copyright © 2017 Hainan Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

Irregularities in Early Seismic Rupture Propagation for Large Events in a Crustal Earthquake Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapusta, N.; Rice, J. R.; Rice, J. R.

2001-12-01

We study early seismic propagation of model earthquakes in a 2-D model of a vertical strike-slip fault with depth-variable rate and state friction properties. Our model earthquakes are obtained in fully dynamic simulations of sequences of instabilities on a fault subjected to realistically slow tectonic loading (Lapusta et al., JGR, 2000). This work is motivated by results of Ellsworth and Beroza (Science, 1995), who observe that for many earthquakes, far-field velocity seismograms during initial stages of dynamic rupture propagation have irregular fluctuations which constitute a "seismic nucleation phase". In our simulations, we find that such irregularities in velocity seismograms can be caused by two factors: (1) rupture propagation over regions of stress concentrations and (2) partial arrest of rupture in neighboring creeping regions. As rupture approaches a region of stress concentration, it sees increasing background stress and its moment acceleration (to which velocity seismographs in the far field are proportional) increases. After the peak in stress concentration, the rupture sees decreasing background stress and moment acceleration decreases. Hence a fluctuation in moment acceleration is created. If rupture starts sufficiently far from a creeping region, then partial arrest of rupture in the creeping region causes a decrease in moment acceleration. As the other parts of rupture continue to develop, moment acceleration then starts to grow again, and a fluctuation again results. Other factors may cause the irregularities in moment acceleration, e.g., phenomena such as branching and/or intermittent rupture propagation (Poliakov et al., submitted to JGR, 2001) which we have not studied here. Regions of stress concentration are created in our model by arrest of previous smaller events as well as by interactions with creeping regions. One such region is deep in the fault zone, and is caused by the temperature-induced transition from seismogenic to creeping behavior at depth. Small events appear in our model at that transition as we decrease the characteristic slip distance for evolution of frictional strength (but not if that distance is unrealistically large). Such clustering of small events at transitions from seismogenic to creeping behavior seems to occur on real faults as well, as we show in examples. To compute moment acceleration that can be compared with data, we translate the results of our 2-D fault model to a 3-D model with essentially radial symmetry on the fault plane. We will discuss limitations of that interpretation; in particular, it may overestimate the effect of partial arrest of rupture in creeping regions. Our present work cannot resolve whether there are any differences in the early phases of seismic moment release, i.e. in the seismic nucleation phase, that would make the beginning of larger events look different from smaller ones that are about to arrest. We have shown that the aseismic nucleation phase and the earliest phases of dynamic breakout are virtually identical for small and large events in our simulations. If early moment release is mostly affected by stress heterogeneities left by previous small events and by creep processes, as our present study suggests, then any such differences would have to be related to as yet unidentified properties of the pre-stress field that might determine the ultimate event size. See http://esag.harvard.edu/lapusta/Lapusta_Rice_Jun01.pdf, Lapusta and Rice, submitted to JGR, 2001.

Source modeling and inversion with near real-time GPS: a GITEWS perspective for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babeyko, A. Y.; Hoechner, A.; Sobolev, S. V.

2010-07-01

We present the GITEWS approach to source modeling for the tsunami early warning in Indonesia. Near-field tsunami implies special requirements to both warning time and details of source characterization. To meet these requirements, we employ geophysical and geological information to predefine a maximum number of rupture parameters. We discretize the tsunamigenic Sunda plate interface into an ordered grid of patches (150×25) and employ the concept of Green's functions for forward and inverse rupture modeling. Rupture Generator, a forward modeling tool, additionally employs different scaling laws and slip shape functions to construct physically reasonable source models using basic seismic information only (magnitude and epicenter location). GITEWS runs a library of semi- and fully-synthetic scenarios to be extensively employed by system testing as well as by warning center personnel teaching and training. Near real-time GPS observations are a very valuable complement to the local tsunami warning system. Their inversion provides quick (within a few minutes on an event) estimation of the earthquake magnitude, rupture position and, in case of sufficient station coverage, details of slip distribution.

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward Fault in North Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lienkaemper, James J.; Williams, Patrick L.

1999-07-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776.

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.

1999-01-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

2016-05-01

Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

Development of Final A-Fault Rupture Models for WGCEP/ NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Weldon, Ray J.; Parsons, Thomas; Wills, Chris J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Stein, Ross S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based models, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-model option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.

Features of the rupture of free hanging liquid film under the action of a thermal load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ovcharova, Alla S.

2011-10-01

We consider a deformation and a rupture of a thin liquid film which is hanging between two solid flat walls under the action of concentrated thermal load action. A two-dimensional model is applied to describe the motion of thin layers of viscous non-isothermal liquid under micro-gravity conditions. For flow simulation, two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations are used. A computational analysis of the influence of thermal loads on the deformation and the rupture behavior of the thin freely hanging film is carried out. It is shown that the rupture of the thin film with generation of a droplet can occur under the thermal beam of specific width acting on the free surface of the film. The results of the model problem solutions are presented.

A support-operator method for 3-D rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, Geoffrey P.; Day, Steven M.; Minster, Jean-Bernard

2009-06-01

We present a numerical method to simulate spontaneous shear crack propagation within a heterogeneous, 3-D, viscoelastic medium. Wave motions are computed on a logically rectangular hexahedral mesh, using the generalized finite-difference method of Support Operators (SOM). This approach enables modelling of non-planar surfaces and non-planar fault ruptures. Our implementation, the Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code, is highly scalable, enabling large-scale, multiprocessors calculations. The fault surface is modelled by coupled double nodes, where rupture occurs as dictated by the local stress conditions and a frictional failure law. The method successfully performs test problems developed for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dynamic earthquake rupture code validation exercise, showing good agreement with semi-analytical boundary integral method results. We undertake further dynamic rupture tests to quantify numerical errors introduced by shear deformations to the hexahedral mesh. We generate a family of meshes distorted by simple shearing, in the along-strike direction, up to a maximum of 73°. For SCEC/USGS validation problem number 3, grid-induced errors increase with mesh shear angle, with the logarithm of error approximately proportional to angle over the range tested. At 73°, rms misfits are about 10 per cent for peak slip rate, and 0.5 per cent for both rupture time and total slip, indicating that the method (which, up to now, we have applied mainly to near-vertical strike-slip faulting) is also capable of handling geometries appropriate to low-angle surface-rupturing thrust earthquakes. Additionally, we demonstrate non-planar rupture effects, by modifying the test geometry to include, respectively, cylindrical curvature and sharp kinks.

Diagnosis of Complex Pulley Ruptures Using Ultrasound in Cadaver Models.

PubMed

Schöffl, Isabelle; Hugel, Arnica; Schöffl, Volker; Rascher, Wolfgang; Jüngert, Jörg

2017-03-01

Pulley ruptures are common in climbing athletes. The purposes of this study were to determine the specific positioning of each pulley with regards to the joint, and to evaluate the ultrasound diagnostics of various pulley rupture combinations. For this, 34 cadaver fingers were analyzed via ultrasound, the results of which were compared to anatomic measurements. Different pulley ruptures were then simulated and evaluated using ultrasound in standardized dynamic forced flexion. Visualization of the A2 and A4 pulleys was achieved 100% of the time, while the A3 pulley was visible in 74% of cases. Similarly, injuries to the A2 and A4 pulleys were readily observable, while A3 pulley injuries were more challenging to identify (sensitivity of 0.2 for singular A3 pulley, 0.5 for A2/A4 pulley and 0.33 for A3/A4 pulley ruptures). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to evaluate the optimal tendon-bone distance for pulley rupture diagnosis, a threshold which was determined to be 1.9 mm for A2 pulley ruptures and 1.85 for A4 pulley ruptures. This study was the first to carry out a cadaver ultrasound examination of a wide variety of pulley ruptures. Ultrasound is a highly accurate tool for visualizing the A2 and A4 pulleys in a cadaver model. This method of pathology diagnosis was determined to be suitable for injuries to the A2 and A4 pulleys, but inadequate for A3 pulley injuries. Copyright © 2016 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Possibility of a joint San Andreas-Imperial Fault Rupture in the Salton Trough Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Meltzner, A. J.; Rockwell, T. K.

2016-12-01

A geodynamic investigation of possible earthquakes in a given region requires both field data and numerical simulations. In particular, the investigation of past earthquakes is also a fundamental part of understanding the earthquake potential of the Salton Trough region. Geological records from paleoseismic trenches inform us of past ruptures (length, magnitude, timing), while dynamic rupture models allow us to evaluate numerically the mechanics of such earthquakes. The two most recent events (Mw 6.4 1940 and Mw 6.9 1979) on the Imperial fault (IF) both ruptured up to the northern end of the mapped fault, giving the impression that rupture doesn't propagate further north. This result is supported by small displacements, 20 cm, measured at the Dogwood site near the end of the mapped rupture in each event. However, 3D paleoseismic data from the same site corresponding to the most recent pre-1940 event (1710 CE) and 5th (1635 CE) and 6th events back revealed up to 1.5 m of slip in those events. Since we expect the surface displacement to decrease toward the termination of a rupture, we postulate that in these earlier cases the rupture propagated further north than in 1940 or 1979. Furthermore, paleoseismic data from the Coachella site (Philibosian et al., 2011) on the San Andreas fault (SAF) indicates slip events ca. 1710 CE and 1588-1662 CE. In other words, the timing of two large paleoseismic displacements on the IF cannot be distinguished from the timing of the two most recent events on the southern SAF, leaving a question: is it possible to have through-going rupture in the Salton Trough? We investigate this question through 3D dynamic finite element rupture modeling. In our work, we considered two scenarios: rupture initiated on the IF propagating northward, and rupture initiated on the SAF propagating southward. Initial results show that, in the first case, rupture propagates north of the mapped northern terminus of the IF only under certain pre-stress conditions, such as values of the seismic parameter S = 0.45 to 2.0, and tends to stop for S = 2.5. If rupture initiates in the north on the SAF, we find that it is easier for it to propagate across the entire stepover region. The results have implications for potential earthquakes in the region, with the possibility of a preferred direction of rupture propagation through the stepover.

Morphological and Hemodynamic Discriminators for Rupture Status in Posterior Communicating Artery Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Karmonik, Christof; Fang, Yibin; Xu, Jinyu; Yu, Ying; Cao, Wei; Liu, Jianmin; Huang, Qinghai

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose The conflicting findings of previous morphological and hemodynamic studies on intracranial aneurysm rupture may be caused by the relatively small sample sizes and the variation in location of the patient-specific aneurysm models. We aimed to determine the discriminators for aneurysm rupture status by focusing on only posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms. Materials and Methods In 129 PCoA aneurysms (85 ruptured, 44 unruptured), clinical, morphological and hemodynamic characteristics were compared between the ruptured and unruptured cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the discriminators for rupture status of PCoA aneurysms. Results While univariate analyses showed that the size of aneurysm dome, aspect ratio (AR), size ratio (SR), dome-to-neck ratio (DN), inflow angle (IA), normalized wall shear stress (NWSS) and percentage of low wall shear stress area (LSA) were significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture status. With multivariate analyses, significance was only retained for higher IA (OR = 1.539, p < 0.001) and LSA (OR = 1.393, p = 0.041). Conclusions Hemodynamics and morphology were related to rupture status of intracranial aneurysms. Higher IA and LSA were identified as discriminators for rupture status of PCoA aneurysms. PMID:26910518

Morphological and Hemodynamic Discriminators for Rupture Status in Posterior Communicating Artery Aneurysms.

PubMed

Lv, Nan; Wang, Chi; Karmonik, Christof; Fang, Yibin; Xu, Jinyu; Yu, Ying; Cao, Wei; Liu, Jianmin; Huang, Qinghai

2016-01-01

The conflicting findings of previous morphological and hemodynamic studies on intracranial aneurysm rupture may be caused by the relatively small sample sizes and the variation in location of the patient-specific aneurysm models. We aimed to determine the discriminators for aneurysm rupture status by focusing on only posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms. In 129 PCoA aneurysms (85 ruptured, 44 unruptured), clinical, morphological and hemodynamic characteristics were compared between the ruptured and unruptured cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the discriminators for rupture status of PCoA aneurysms. While univariate analyses showed that the size of aneurysm dome, aspect ratio (AR), size ratio (SR), dome-to-neck ratio (DN), inflow angle (IA), normalized wall shear stress (NWSS) and percentage of low wall shear stress area (LSA) were significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture status. With multivariate analyses, significance was only retained for higher IA (OR = 1.539, p < 0.001) and LSA (OR = 1.393, p = 0.041). Hemodynamics and morphology were related to rupture status of intracranial aneurysms. Higher IA and LSA were identified as discriminators for rupture status of PCoA aneurysms.

Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake in Relation to Earthquake Cycle and Dynamic Rupture Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.

2015-12-01

Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity. Earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture models containing deep asperities reproduce the slower spectral decay found in teleseismic spectra of the Gorkha earthquake and in subduction events in the deeper edge of the seismogenic zone.

Kinematic and Dynamic Source Rupture Scenario for Potential Megathrust Event along the Southernmost Ryukyu Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. C.; Hu, F.; Chen, X.; Lee, S. J.; Hung, S. H.

2017-12-01

Kinematic source model is widely used for the simulation of an earthquake, because of its simplicity and ease of application. On the other hand, dynamic source model is a more complex but important tool that can help us to understand the physics of earthquake initiation, propagation, and healing. In this study, we focus on the southernmost Ryukyu Trench which is extremely close to northern Taiwan. Interseismic GPS data in northeast Taiwan shows a pattern of strain accumulation, which suggests the maximum magnitude of a potential future earthquake in this area is probably about magnitude 8.7. We develop dynamic rupture models for the hazard estimation of the potential megathrust event based on the kinematic rupture scenarios which are inverted using the interseismic GPS data. Besides, several kinematic source rupture scenarios with different characterized slip patterns are also considered to constrain the dynamic rupture process better. The initial stresses and friction properties are tested using the trial-and-error method, together with the plate coupling and tectonic features. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip prescribed in the kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. Furthermore, the dynamic and kinematic rupture models are considered to simulate the ground shaking from based on 3-D spectral-element method. We analyze ShakeMap and ShakeMovie from the simulation results to evaluate the influence over the island between different source models. A dispersive tsunami-propagation simulation is also carried out to evaluate the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal areas of Taiwan due to coseismic seafloor deformation of different source models. The results of this numerical simulation study can provide a physically-based information of megathrust earthquake scenario for the emergency response agency to take the appropriate action before the really big one happens.

Rupture history of 2008 May 12 Mw 8.0 Wen-Chuan earthquake: Evidence of slip interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, C.; Shao, G.; Lu, Z.; Hudnut, K.; Jiu, J.; Hayes, G.; Zeng, Y.

2008-12-01

We will present the rupture process of the May 12, 2008 Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake using all available data. The current model, using both teleseismic body and surface waves and interferometric LOS displacements, reveals an unprecedented complex rupture process which can not be resolved using either of the datasets individually. Rupture of this earthquake involved both the low angle Pengguan fault and the high angle Beichuan fault, which intersect each other at depth and are separated approximately 5-15 km at the surface. Rupture initiated on the Pengguan fault and triggered rupture on the Beichuan fault 10 sec later. The two faults dynamically interacted and unilaterally ruptured over 270 km with an average rupture velocity of 3.0 km/sec. The total seismic moment is 1.1x1021 Nm (Mw 8.0), roughly equally partitioned between the two faults. However, the spatiotemporal evaluations of the two faults are very different. This study will focus on the evidence for fault interactions and will analyze the corresponding uncertainties, in preparation for future dynamic studies of the same detailed nature.

Dynamics of a pre-lens tear film after a blink: Model, evolution, and rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usha, R.; Anjalaiah, Sanyasiraju, Y. V. S. S.

2013-11-01

A mathematical model is developed to investigate the dynamics and rupture of a pre-lens tear film on a contact lens. The contact lens is modeled as a saturated porous medium of constant, finite thickness and is described by the Darcy-Brinkman equations with stress-jump condition at the interface. The model incorporates the influence of capillarity, gravitational drainage, contact lens properties such as the permeability, the porosity, and the thickness of the contact lens on the evolution and rupture of a pre-lens tear film, when the eyelid has opened after a blink. Two models are derived for the evolution of a pre-lens tear film thickness using lubrication theory and are solved numerically; the first uses shear-free surface condition and the second, the tangentially immobile free surface condition. The results reveal that life span of a pre-lens tear film is longer on a thinner contact lens for all values of permeability and porosity parameter considered. An increase in permeability of contact lens, porosity or stress-jump parameter increases the rate of thinning of the film and advances the rupture time. The viscous-viscous interaction between the porous contact lens and the pre-lens tear film increases the resistance offered by the frictional forces to the rate of thinning of pre-lens tear film. This slows down the thinning process and hence delays the rupture of the film as compared to that predicted by the models of Nong and Anderson [SIAM. J. Appl. Math. 70, 2771-2795 (2010)] derived in the framework of Darcy model.

Finite element analysis of blunt foreign body impact on the cornea after PRK and LASIK.

PubMed

Mousavi, Seyed Jamaleddin; Nassiri, Nariman; Masoumi, Nafiseh; Nassiri, Nader; Majdi-N, Mercede; Farzaneh, Solmaz; Djalilian, Ali R; Peyman, Gholam A

2012-01-01

To investigate the effect of blunt foreign body impact on a human cornea after photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and LASIK using a simulation model. Computational simulations were performed using a finite element analysis program (LS-Dyna, Livermore Software Technology Corp). The blunt foreign body was set to impact at the center of the corneal surface models (after PRK and LASIK) with thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm. Corneal rupture was assumed to occur at a peak stress of 9.45 MPa and at a strain of 18%. The foreign body projectile was blunt in shape, made from aluminum, contained plastic-kinematic properties, and had a density of 2700 kg/m(3). The projectile was launched at the center of the cornea with velocities ranging from 20 to 60 m/s. The threshold of impact velocities creating rupture in corneal thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm were 33, 32.8, 30.7, 27.9, and 22.8 m/s, respectively, in the PRK model. In the LASIK model, the thresholds creating rupture in the stromal bed of the corneas with thicknesses of 500, 450, 400, 350, and 300 μm were 40, 38.1, 35.6, 31.5, and 26.7 m/s, respectively. The 110-μm corneal flap in the LASIK model ruptured at all velocities. Ruptures occurred at lower velocities in the PRK cornea model than in the corneal stromal bed of the LASIK model following blunt foreign body impact. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

The Effects of Fault Bends on Rupture Propagation: A Parameter Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozos, J. C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Duan, B.; Wesnousky, S. G.

2008-12-01

Segmented faults with stepovers are ubiquitous, and occur at a variety of scales, ranging from small stepovers on the San Jacinto Fault, to the large-scale stepover on of the San Andreas Fault between Tejon Pass and San Gorgonio Pass. Because this type of fault geometry is so prevalent, understanding how rupture propagates through such systems is important for evaluating seismic hazard at different points along these faults. In the present study, we systematically investigate how far rupture will propagate through a fault with a linked (i.e., continuous fault) stepover, based on the length of the linking fault segment and the angle that connects the linking segment to adjacent segments. We conducted dynamic models of such systems using a two-dimensional finite element code (Duan and Oglesby 2007). The fault system in our models consists of three segments: two parallel 10km-long faults linked at a specified angle by a linking segment of between 500 m and 5 km. This geometry was run both as a extensional system and a compressional system. We observed several distinct rupture behaviors, with systematic differences between compressional and extensional cases. Both shear directions rupture straight through the stepover for very shallow stepover angles. In compressional systems with steeper angles, rupture may jump ahead from the stepover segment onto the far segment; whether or not rupture on this segment reaches critical patch size and slips fully is also a function of angle and stepover length. In some compressional cases, if the angle is steep enough and the stepover short enough, rupture may jump over the step entirely and propagate down the far segment without touching the linking segment. In extensional systems, rupture jumps from the nucleating segment onto the linking segment even at shallow angles, but at steeper angles, rupture propagates through without jumping. It is easier to propagate through a wider range of angles in extensional cases. In both extensional and compressional cases, for each stepover length there exists a maximum angle through which rupture can fully propagate; this maximum angle decreases asymptotically to a minimum value as the stepover length increases. We also found that a wave associated with a stopping phase coming from the far end of the fault may restart rupture and induce full propagation after a significant delay in some cases where the initial rupture terminated.

Complementary Ruptures of Surface Ruptures and Deep Asperity during the 2014 Northern Nagano, Japan, Earthquake (MW 6.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Kubo, H.

2015-12-01

A thrust earthquake of MW 6.3 occurred along the northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL) in the northern Nagano prefecture, central Japan, on November 22, 2014. This event was reported to be related to an active fault, the Kamishiro fault belonging to the ISTL (e.g., HERP, 2014). The surface rupture is observed along the Kamishiro fault (e.g., Lin et al., 2015; Okada et al., 2015). We estimated the kinematic source rupture process of this earthquake through the multiple time-window linear waveform inversion method (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). We used velocity waveforms in 0.05-1 Hz from 12 strong motion stations of K-NET, KiK-net (NIED), JMA, and Nagano prefecture (SK-net, ERI). In order to enhance the reliability in Green's functions, we assumed one-dimensional velocity structure models different for the different stations, which were extracted from the nation-wide three-dimensional velocity structure model, Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model (JIVSM, Koketsu et al., 2012). Considering the spatial distribution of aftershocks (Sakai et al., 2015) and surface ruptures, the assumed fault model consisted of two dip-bending fault segments with different dip angles between the northern and southern segments. The total length and width of the fault plane is 20 km and 13 km, relatively, and the fault model is divided into 260 subfaults of 1 km × 1 km in space and six smoothed ramp functions in time. An asperity or large slip area with a peak slip of 1.9 m was estimated in the lower plane of the northern segment in the approximate depth range of 4 to 8 km. The depth extent of this asperity is consistent with the seismogenic zone revealed by past studies (e.g., Panayotopoulos et al., 2014). In contrast, the slip in the southern segment is relatively concentrated in the shallow portion of the segment where the surface ruptures were found along the Kamishiro fault. The overall spatial rupture pattern of the source fault, in which the deep asperity was located on the northern segment and surface rupture was found on the southern segment, seems to be spatially consistent with the mapped active faults. These findings suggest characteristic and repeating features of fault ruptures along active faults where static offsets have accumulated over past events, and it would be a good constraint on earthquake scenarios along it.

Paleoearthquakes at Frazier Mountain, California delimit extent and frequency of past San Andreas Fault ruptures along 1857 trace

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharer, Katherine M.; Weldon, Ray; Streig, Ashley; Fumal, Thomas

2014-01-01

Large earthquakes are infrequent along a single fault, and therefore historic, well-characterized earthquakes exert a strong influence on fault behavior models. This is true of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (estimated M7.7–7.9) on the southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF), but an outstanding question is whether the 330 km long rupture was typical. New paleoseismic data for six to seven ground-rupturing earthquakes on the Big Bend of the SSAF restrict the pattern of possible ruptures on the 1857 stretch of the fault. In conjunction with existing sites, we show that over the last ~650 years, at least 75% of the surface ruptures are shorter than the 1857 earthquake, with estimated rupture lengths of 100 to <300 km. These results suggest that the 1857 rupture was unusual, perhaps leading to the long open interval, and that a return to pre-1857 behavior would increase the rate of M7.3–M7.7 earthquakes.

3D fault curvature and fractal roughness: Insights for rupture dynamics and ground motions using a Discontinous Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, Thomas; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes

2017-04-01

Natural fault geometries are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Their geometrical structure is not directly observable and may only be inferred from surface traces, or geophysical measurements. Most studies aiming at assessing the potential seismic hazard of natural faults rely on idealised shaped models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. Dynamic rupture simulations aim to capture the observed complexity of earthquake sources and ground-motions. From a numerical point of view, incorporating rough faults in such simulations is challenging - it requires optimised codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computers and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physics-based rupture dynamics hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Moreover, the simulated ground-motions present many similarities with observed ground-motions records. Thus, such simulations may foster our understanding of earthquake source processes, and help deriving more accurate seismic hazard estimates. In this presentation, the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, is used to solve the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem. The usage of tetrahedral unstructured meshes naturally allows for complicated fault geometries. However, SeisSol's high-order discretisation in time and space is not particularly suited for small-scale fault roughness. We will demonstrate modelling conditions under which SeisSol resolves rupture dynamics on rough faults accurately. The strong impact of the geometric gradient of the fault surface on the rupture process is then shown in 3D simulations. Following, the benefits of explicitly modelling fault curvature and roughness, in distinction to prescribing heterogeneous initial stress conditions on a planar fault, is demonstrated. Furthermore, we show that rupture extend, rupture front coherency and rupture speed are highly dependent on the initial amplitude of stress acting on the fault, defined by the normalized prestress factor R, the ratio of the potential stress drop over the breakdown stress drop. The effects of fault complexity are particularly pronounced for lower R. By low-pass filtering a rough fault at several cut-off wavelengths, we then try to capture rupture complexity using a simplified fault geometry. We find that equivalent source dynamics can only be obtained using a scarcely filtered fault associated with a reduced stress level. To investigate the wavelength-dependent roughness effect, the fault geometry is bandpass-filtered over several spectral ranges. We show that geometric fluctuations cause rupture velocity fluctuations of similar length scale. The impact of fault geometry is especially pronounced when the rupture front velocity is near supershear. Roughness fluctuations significantly smaller than the rupture front characteristic dimension (cohesive zone size) affect only macroscopic rupture properties, thus, posing a minimum length scale limiting the required resolution of 3D fault complexity. Lastly, the effect of fault curvature and roughness on the simulated ground-motions is assessed. Despite employing a simple linear slip weakening friction law, the simulated ground-motions compare well with estimates from ground motions prediction equations, even at relatively high frequencies.

Evaluating a kinematic method for generating broadband ground motions for great subduction zone earthquakes: Application to the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wirth, Erin A.; Frankel, Arthur; Vidale, John E.

2017-01-01

We compare broadband synthetic seismograms with recordings of the 2003 Mw">MwMw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake to evaluate a compound rupture model, in which slip on the fault consists of multiple high‐stress‐drop asperities superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. Low‐frequency synthetics (<1  Hz"><1  Hz<1  Hz) are calculated using deterministic, 3D finite‐difference simulations and are combined with high‐frequency (>1  Hz">>1  Hz>1  Hz) stochastic synthetics using a matched filter at 1 Hz. We show that this compound rupture model and overall approach accurately reproduces waveform envelopes and observed response spectral accelerations (SAs) from the Tokachi‐Oki event. We find that sufficiently short subfault rise times (i.e., <∼1–2  s"><∼1–2  s<∼1–2  s) are necessary to reproduce energy ∼1  Hz">∼1  Hz∼1  Hz. This is achieved by either (1) including distinct subevents with short rise times, as may be suggested by the Tokachi‐Oki data, or (2) imposing a fast‐slip velocity over the entire rupture area. We also include a systematic study on the effects of varying several kinematic rupture parameters. We find that simulated strong ground motions are sensitive to the average rupture velocity and coherence of the rupture front, with more coherent ruptures yielding higher response SAs. We also assess the effects of varying the average slip velocity and the character (i.e., area, magnitude, and location) of high‐stress‐drop subevents. Even in the absence of precise constraints on these kinematic rupture parameters, our simulations still reproduce major features in the Tokachi‐Oki earthquake data, supporting its accuracy in modeling future large earthquakes.

Kinematic Seismic Rupture Parameters from a Doppler Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Bento; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Borges, José F.

2010-05-01

The radiation emitted from extended seismic sources, mainly when the rupture spreads in preferred directions, presents spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. This aspect, unobserved to point sources, and named as directivity, are manifested by an increase in the frequency and amplitude of seismic waves when the rupture occurs in the direction of the seismic station and a decrease in the frequency and amplitude if it occurs in the opposite direction. The model of directivity that supports the method is a Doppler analysis based on a kinematic source model of rupture and wave propagation through a structural medium with spherical symmetry [1]. A unilateral rupture can be viewed as a sequence of shocks produced along certain paths on the fault. According this model, the seismic record at any point on the Earth's surface contains a signature of the rupture process that originated the recorded waveform. Calculating the rupture direction and velocity by a general Doppler equation, - the goal of this work - using a dataset of common time-delays read from waveforms recorded at different distances around the epicenter, requires the normalization of measures to a standard value of slowness. This normalization involves a non-linear inversion that we solve numerically using an iterative least-squares approach. The evaluation of the performance of this technique was done through a set of synthetic and real applications. We present the application of the method at four real case studies, the following earthquakes: Arequipa, Peru (Mw = 8.4, June 23, 2001); Denali, AK, USA (Mw = 7.8; November 3, 2002); Zemmouri-Boumerdes, Algeria (Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003); and Sumatra, Indonesia (Mw = 9.3, December 26, 2004). The results obtained from the dataset of the four earthquakes agreed, in general, with the values presented by other authors using different methods and data. [1] Caldeira B., Bezzeghoud M, Borges JF, 2009; DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector. J Seismology, DOI 10.1007/s10950-009-9183-x

Coseismic surface displacements from optical and SAR image offset tracking, fault modeling and geomorphological analysis of the Sept. 24th, 2013 M7.7 Balochistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, Jonathan; Wang, Teng; Feng, Guangcai; Akoglu, Ahmet; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Motagh, Mahdi

2014-05-01

The M 7.7 earthquake in the Balochistan province of Pakistan on September 24th, 2013 took place along a subsidiary fault in the transition area between the Makran accretionary prism and the Chaman transform fault. This tectonics of the Indian and Arabian plate collisions with Eurasia produce primarily oblique left-lateral strike slip in this region. In this work, measurements of displacement and mapping of the rupture trace are achieved through image correlation of Landsat 8 images and SAR offset tracking of TerraSAR-X data. Horizontal displacements from both methods and derived vertical displacements are used to constrain a fault rupture model for the earthquake. Preliminary results show a surprisingly uniform slip distribution with maximum displacement near the surface. The total fault rupture length is ~210 km, with up to 9 m of left-lateral strike-slip and 3 m of reverse faulting. Additionally, mapping of the rupture trace is made use of for geomorphological observations relating to slip rates and identification of transpressional and transtensional features. Our results indicate a mostly smooth rupture trace, with the presence of two restraining steps, a releasing bend and a 3 km long sliver where the surface rupture jumped from the foot of the range-front into the alluvial fans at their base. A small block at one of the restraining steps shows intermediate displacement in both data sets. At the southern end of the rupture we observe that displacement from the earthquake cuts across a fold-and-thrust belt of the Makran accretionary prism. Preliminary results show a minimum of 12 km of repeated section of the accretionary wedge, and within the southern repeated section we find an offset of 600 m between two parallel ridges across the rupture trace. We relate these observations to conceptual models of fault segmentation and growth.

Geodetic Insights into the Earthquake Cycle in a Fold and Thrust Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingleby, T. F.; Wright, T. J.; Butterworth, V.; Weiss, J. R.; Elliott, J.

2017-12-01

Geodetic measurements are often sparse in time (e.g. individual interferograms) and/or space (e.g. GNSS stations), adversely affecting our ability to capture the spatiotemporal detail required to study the earthquake cycle in complex tectonic systems such as subaerial fold and thrust belts. In an effort to overcome these limitations we combine 3 generations of SAR satellite data (ERS 1/2, Envisat & Sentinel-1a/b) to obtain a 25 year, high-resolution surface displacement time series over the frontal portion of an active fold and thrust belt near Quetta, Pakistan where a Mw 7.1 earthquake doublet occurred in 1997. With these data we capture a significant portion of the seismic cycle including the interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases. Each satellite time series has been referenced to the first ERS-1 SAR epoch by fitting a ground deformation model to the data. This allows us to separate deformation associated with each phase and to examine their relative roles in accommodating strain and creating topography, and to explore the relationship between the earthquake cycle and critical taper wedge mechanics. Modeling of the coseismic deformation suggests a long, thin rupture with rupture length 7 times greater than rupture width. Rupture was confined to a 20-30 degree north-northeast dipping reverse fault or ramp at depth, which may be connecting two weak decollements at approximately 8 km and 13 km depth. Alternatively, intersections between the coseismic fault plane and pre-existing steeper splay faults underlying folds may have played a significant role in inhibiting rupture, as evidenced by intersection points bordering the rupture. These fault intersections effectively partition the fault system down-dip and enable long, thin ruptures. Postseismic deformation is manifest as uplift across short-wavelength folds at the thrust front, with displacement rates decreasing with time since the earthquake. Broader patterns of postseismic uplift are also observed surrounding the coseismic rupture in both the down- and up-dip directions. We examine how coseismic stress changes may be driving the postseismic deformation by jointly inverting the InSAR-derived displacements for the rupture and fault friction parameters using a rate-strengthening friction model.

The 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence: I. Source modeling and deterministic 3D ground shaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Shengji; Chen, Meng; Wang, Xin; Graves, Robert; Lindsey, Eric; Wang, Teng; Karakaş, Çağıl; Helmberger, Don

2018-01-01

To better quantify the relatively long period (< 0.3 Hz) shaking experienced during the 2015 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake sequence, we study the finite rupture processes and the associated 3D ground motion of the Mw7.8 mainshock and the Mw7.2 aftershock. The 3D synthetics are then used in the broadband ground shaking in Kathmandu with a hybrid approach, summarized in a companion paper (Chen and Wei, 2017, submitted together). We determined the coseismic rupture process of the mainshock by joint inversion of InSAR/SAR, GPS (static and high-rate), strong motion and teleseismic waveforms. Our inversion for the mainshock indicates unilateral rupture towards the ESE, with an average rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and a total duration of 60 s. Additionally, we find that the beginning part of the rupture (5-18 s) has about 40% longer rise time than the rest of the rupture, as well as slower rupture velocity. Our model shows two strong asperities occurring 24 s and 36 s after the origin and located 30 km to the northwest and northeast of the Kathmandu valley, respectively. In contrast, the Mw7.2 aftershock is more compact both in time and space, as revealed by joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and InSAR data. The different rupture features between the mainshock and the aftershock could be related to difference in fault zone structure. The mainshock and aftershock ground motions in the Kathmandu valley, recorded by both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations, exhibited strong amplification around 0.2 Hz. A simplified 3D basin model, calibrated by an Mw5.2 aftershock, can match the observed waveforms reasonably well at 0.3 Hz and lower frequency. The 3D simulations indicate that the basin structure trapped the wavefield and produced an extensive ground vibration. Our study suggests that the combination of rupture characteristics and propagational complexity are required to understand the ground shaking produced by hazardous earthquakes such as the Gorkha event.

Rupture process of the 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near-field hr-GPS and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Han; Lay, Thorne; Rivera, Luis; Bai, Yefei; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Hill, Emma M.; Sieh, Kerry; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2014-07-01

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 Mw 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation ~50 km up dip and ~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of ~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth ~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from ~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for ~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 1020 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.

Towards coupled earthquake dynamic rupture and tsunami simulations: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, Percy; van Dinther, Ylona

2016-04-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given an unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds suggesting two rupture fronts, possibly due to slip reactivation caused by frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this rupture reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops (Galvez et al, 2015) . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of uplift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge uplift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model and plug the sea floor displacements into GeoClaw (Finite element code for tsunami simulations, George and LeVeque, 2006). Our recent results compare well with the water height at the tsunami DART buoys 21401, 21413, 21418 and 21419 and show the potential using fully dynamic rupture results for tsunami studies for earthquake-tsunami scenarios.

Recent Improvements to the Finite-Fault Rupture Detector Algorithm: FinDer II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.

2015-12-01

Constraining the finite-fault rupture extent and azimuth is crucial for accurately estimating ground-motion in large earthquakes. Detecting and modeling finite-fault ruptures in real-time is thus essential to both earthquake early warning (EEW) and rapid emergency response. Following extensive real-time and offline testing, the finite-fault rupture detector algorithm, FinDer (Böse et al., 2012 & 2015), was successfully integrated into the California-wide ShakeAlert EEW demonstration system. Since April 2015, FinDer has been scanning real-time waveform data from approximately 420 strong-motion stations in California for peak ground acceleration (PGA) patterns indicative of earthquakes. FinDer analyzes strong-motion data by comparing spatial images of observed PGA with theoretical templates modeled from empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). If the correlation between the observed and theoretical PGA is sufficiently high, a report is sent to ShakeAlert including the estimated centroid position, length, and strike, and their uncertainties, of an ongoing fault rupture. Rupture estimates are continuously updated as new data arrives. As part of a joint effort between USGS Menlo Park, ETH Zurich, and Caltech, we have rewritten FinDer in C++ to obtain a faster and more flexible implementation. One new feature of FinDer II is that multiple contour lines of high-frequency PGA are computed and correlated with templates, allowing the detection of both large earthquakes and much smaller (~ M3.5) events shortly after their nucleation. Unlike previous EEW algorithms, FinDer II thus provides a modeling approach for both small-magnitude point-source and larger-magnitude finite-fault ruptures with consistent error estimates for the entire event magnitude range.

To what extent the repeating earthquakes repeated? - Analyses of 1982 and 2008 Ibaraki-ken-oki M7 class earthquakes using strong motion records -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiguchi, M.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2010-12-01

Two M7 class subduction zone earthquakes have occurred in the Ibaraki-ken-oki region, northeast Japan, at 23:23 on July 23, 1982 JST (Mw7.0; 1982MS) and at 01:45 on May 8, 2008 JST (Mw6.8; 2008MS). It has been reported that, from the results of the teleseismic waveform inversion, the rupture of the asperity repeated (HERP, 2010). We estimated the source processes of these earthquakes in detail by analyzing the strong motion records and discussed how much the source characteristics of the two earthquakes repeated. First, we estimated the source model of 2008MS following the method of Miyake et al. (2003). The best-fit set of the model parameters was determined by a grid search using forward modeling of broad-band ground motions. A single 12.6 km × 12.6 km rectangular Strong Motion Generation Area (SMGA, Miyake et al., 2003) was estimated. The rupture of the SMGA of 2008MS (2008SMGA) started from the hypocenter and propagated mainly to northeast. Next, we estimated the source model of 1982MS. We compared the waveforms of 1982MS and 2008MS recorded at the same stations and found the initial rupture phase before the main rupture phase on the waveforms of 1982MS. The travel time analysis showed that the main rupture of the 1982MS started approximately 33 km west of the hypocenter at about 11s after the origin time. The main rupture starting point was located inside 2008SMGA, suggesting that the two SMGAs overlapped in part. The seismic moment ratio of 1982MS to 2008MS was approximately 1.6, and we also found the observed acceleration amplitude spectra of 1982MS were 1.5 times higher than those of 2008MS in the available frequency range. We performed the waveform modeling for 1982MS with a constraint of these ratios. A single rectangular SMGA (1982SMGA) was estimated for the main rupture, which had the same size and the same rupture propagation direction as those of 2008SMGA. However, the estimated stress drop or average slip amount of 1982SMGA was 1.5 times larger than those of 2008SMGA.

Dynamics of retinal photocoagulation and rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sramek, Christopher; Paulus, Yannis; Nomoto, Hiroyuki; Huie, Phil; Brown, Jefferson; Palanker, Daniel

2009-05-01

In laser retinal photocoagulation, short (<20 ms) pulses have been found to reduce thermal damage to the inner retina, decrease treatment time, and minimize pain. However, the safe therapeutic window (defined as the ratio of power for producing a rupture to that of mild coagulation) decreases with shorter exposures. To quantify the extent of retinal heating and maximize the therapeutic window, a computational model of millisecond retinal photocoagulation and rupture was developed. Optical attenuation of 532-nm laser light in ocular tissues was measured, including retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) pigmentation and cell-size variability. Threshold powers for vaporization and RPE damage were measured with pulse durations ranging from 1 to 200 ms. A finite element model of retinal heating inferred that vaporization (rupture) takes place at 180-190°C. RPE damage was accurately described by the Arrhenius model with activation energy of 340 kJ/mol. Computed photocoagulation lesion width increased logarithmically with pulse duration, in agreement with histological findings. The model will allow for the optimization of beam parameters to increase the width of the therapeutic window for short exposures.

Monte Carlo simulation of liquid bridge rupture: Application to lung physiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alencar, Adriano M.; Wolfe, Elie; Buldyrev, Sergey V.

2006-08-01

In the course of certain lung diseases, the surface properties and the amount of fluids coating the airways changes and liquid bridges may form in the small airways blocking the flow of air, impairing gas exchange. During inhalation, these liquid bridges may rupture due to mechanical instability and emit a discrete sound event called pulmonary crackle, which can be heard using a simple stethoscope. We hypothesize that this sound is a result of the acoustical release of energy that had been stored in the surface of liquid bridges prior to its rupture. We develop a lattice gas model capable of describing these phenomena. As a step toward modeling this process, we address a simpler but related problem, that of a liquid bridge between two planar surfaces. This problem has been analytically solved and we use this solution as a validation of the lattice gas model of the liquid bridge rupture. Specifically, we determine the surface free energy and critical stability conditions in a system containing a liquid bridge of volume Ω formed between two parallel planes, separated by a distance 2h , with a contact angle Θ using both Monte Carlo simulation of a lattice gas model and variational calculus based on minimization of the surface area with the volume and the contact angle constraints. In order to simulate systems with different contact angles, we vary the parameters between the constitutive elements of the lattice gas. We numerically and analytically determine the phase diagram of the system as a function of the dimensionless parameters hΩ-1/3 and Θ . The regions of this phase diagram correspond to the mechanical stability and thermodynamical stability of the liquid bridge. We also determine the conditions for the symmetrical versus asymmetrical rupture of the bridge. We numerically and analytically compute the release of free energy during rupture. The simulation results are in agreement with the analytical solution. Furthermore, we discuss the results in connection to the rupture of similar bridges that exist in diseased lungs.

Comparison of Observed Spatio-temporal Aftershock Patterns with Earthquake Simulator Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, K.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2013-12-01

Due to the complex nature of faulting in southern California, knowledge of rupture behavior near fault step-overs is of critical importance to properly quantify and mitigate seismic hazards. Estimates of earthquake probability are complicated by the uncertainty that a rupture will stop at or jump a fault step-over, which affects both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of earthquakes. In recent years, earthquake simulators and dynamic rupture models have begun to address the effects of complex fault geometries on earthquake ground motions and rupture propagation. Early models incorporated vertical faults with highly simplified geometries. Many current studies examine the effects of varied fault geometry, fault step-overs, and fault bends on rupture patterns; however, these works are limited by the small numbers of integrated fault segments and simplified orientations. The previous work of Kroll et al., 2013 on the northern extent of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah rupture in the Yuha Desert region uses precise aftershock relocations to show an area of complex conjugate faulting within the step-over region between the Elsinore and Laguna Salada faults. Here, we employ an innovative approach of incorporating this fine-scale fault structure defined through seismological, geologic and geodetic means in the physics-based earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore the effects of fine-scale structures on stress transfer and rupture propagation and examine the mechanisms that control aftershock activity and local triggering of other large events. We run simulations with primary fault structures in state of California and northern Baja California and incorporate complex secondary faults in the Yuha Desert region. These models produce aftershock activity that enables comparison between the observed and predicted distribution and allow for examination of the mechanisms that control them. We investigate how the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks are affected by changes to model parameters such as shear and normal stress, rate-and-state frictional properties, fault geometry, and slip rate.

Computational simulation of the creep-rupture process in filamentary composite materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slattery, Kerry T.; Hackett, Robert M.

1991-01-01

A computational simulation of the internal damage accumulation which causes the creep-rupture phenomenon in filamentary composite materials is developed. The creep-rupture process involves complex interactions between several damage mechanisms. A statistically-based computational simulation using a time-differencing approach is employed to model these progressive interactions. The finite element method is used to calculate the internal stresses. The fibers are modeled as a series of bar elements which are connected transversely by matrix elements. Flaws are distributed randomly throughout the elements in the model. Load is applied, and the properties of the individual elements are updated at the end of each time step as a function of the stress history. The simulation is continued until failure occurs. Several cases, with different initial flaw dispersions, are run to establish a statistical distribution of the time-to-failure. The calculations are performed on a supercomputer. The simulation results compare favorably with the results of creep-rupture experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Modeling Earthquake Rupture and Corresponding Tsunamis Along a Segment of the Alaskan-Aleutian Megathrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, K. J.; Geist, E. L.; Oglesby, D. D.; Kyriakopoulos, C.

2016-12-01

Motivated by the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-Oki event, we explore the effects of realistic fault dynamics on slip, free surface deformation, and the resulting tsunami generation and local propagation from a hypothetical Mw 9 megathrust earthquake along the Alaskan-Aleutian (A-A) Megathrust. We demonstrate three scenarios: a spatially-homogenous prestress and frictional parameter model and two models with rate-strengthening-like friction (e.g., Dieterich, 1992). We use a dynamic finite element code to model 3-D ruptures, using time-weakening friction (Andrews, 2004) as a proxy for rate-strengthening friction, along a portion of the A-A subduction zone. Given geometric, material, and plate-coupling data along the A-A megathrust assembled from the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) team (e.g., Bruns et al., 1987; Hayes et al., 2012; Johnson et al., 2004; Santini et al., 2003; Wells at al., 2003), we are able to dynamically model rupture. Adding frictional-strengthening to a region of the fault reduces both average slip and free surface displacement above the strengthening zone, with the magnitude of the reductions depending on the strengthening zone location. Corresponding tsunami models, which use a finite difference method to solve the long-wave equations (e.g., Liu et al., 1995; Satake, 2002; Shuto, 1991), match sea floor displacement, in time, to the free surface displacement from the rupture models. Tsunami models show changes in local peak amplitudes and beaming patterns for each slip distribution. Given these results, other heterogeneous parameterizations, with respect to prestress and friction, still need to be examined. Additionally, a more realistic fault geometry will likely affect the rupture dynamics. Thus, future work will incorporate stochastic stress and friction distributions as well as a more complex fault geometry based on Slab 1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012).

The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Initiative: A Collaborative Study on Uncertainty Quantification in Earthquake Source Inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.; Schorlemmer, D.; Page, M.

2012-04-01

Earthquake source inversions image the spatio-temporal rupture evolution on one or more fault planes using seismic and/or geodetic data. Such studies are critically important for earthquake seismology in general, and for advancing seismic hazard analysis in particular, as they reveal earthquake source complexity and help (i) to investigate earthquake mechanics; (ii) to develop spontaneous dynamic rupture models; (iii) to build models for generating rupture realizations for ground-motion simulations. In applications (i - iii), the underlying finite-fault source models are regarded as "data" (input information), but their uncertainties are essentially unknown. After all, source models are obtained from solving an inherently ill-posed inverse problem to which many a priori assumptions and uncertain observations are applied. The Source Inversion Validation (SIV) project is a collaborative effort to better understand the variability between rupture models for a single earthquake (as manifested in the finite-source rupture model database) and to develop robust uncertainty quantification for earthquake source inversions. The SIV project highlights the need to develop a long-standing and rigorous testing platform to examine the current state-of-the-art in earthquake source inversion, and to develop and test novel source inversion approaches. We will review the current status of the SIV project, and report the findings and conclusions of the recent workshops. We will briefly discuss several source-inversion methods, how they treat uncertainties in data, and assess the posterior model uncertainty. Case studies include initial forward-modeling tests on Green's function calculations, and inversion results for synthetic data from spontaneous dynamic crack-like strike-slip earthquake on steeply dipping fault, embedded in a layered crustal velocity-density structure.

Strong ground motion simulation of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake of April 16 using multiple point sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagasaka, Yosuke; Nozu, Atsushi

2017-02-01

The pseudo point-source model approximates the rupture process on faults with multiple point sources for simulating strong ground motions. A simulation with this point-source model is conducted by combining a simple source spectrum following the omega-square model with a path spectrum, an empirical site amplification factor, and phase characteristics. Realistic waveforms can be synthesized using the empirical site amplification factor and phase models even though the source model is simple. The Kumamoto earthquake occurred on April 16, 2016, with M JMA 7.3. Many strong motions were recorded at stations around the source region. Some records were considered to be affected by the rupture directivity effect. This earthquake was suitable for investigating the applicability of the pseudo point-source model, the current version of which does not consider the rupture directivity effect. Three subevents (point sources) were located on the fault plane, and the parameters of the simulation were determined. The simulated results were compared with the observed records at K-NET and KiK-net stations. It was found that the synthetic Fourier spectra and velocity waveforms generally explained the characteristics of the observed records, except for underestimation in the low frequency range. Troughs in the observed Fourier spectra were also well reproduced by placing multiple subevents near the hypocenter. The underestimation is presumably due to the following two reasons. The first is that the pseudo point-source model targets subevents that generate strong ground motions and does not consider the shallow large slip. The second reason is that the current version of the pseudo point-source model does not consider the rupture directivity effect. Consequently, strong pulses were not reproduced enough at stations northeast of Subevent 3 such as KMM004, where the effect of rupture directivity was significant, while the amplitude was well reproduced at most of the other stations. This result indicates the necessity for improving the pseudo point-source model, by introducing azimuth-dependent corner frequency for example, so that it can incorporate the effect of rupture directivity.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Modelling and Experimental Verification of Pressure Wave Following Gaseous Helium Storage Tank Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chorowski, M.; Grabowski, M.; Jędrusyna, A.; Wach, J.

Helium inventory in high energy accelerators, tokamaks and free electron lasers may exceed tens of tons. The gaseous helium is stored in steel tanks under a pressure of about 20 bar and at environment temperature. Accidental rupture of any of the tanks filled with the gaseous helium will create a rapid energy release in form of physical blast. An estimation of pressure wave distribution following the tank rupture and potential consequences to the adjacent research infrastructure and buildings is a very important task, critical in the safety aspect of the whole cryogenic system. According to the present regulations the TNT equivalent approach is to be applied to evaluate the pressure wave following a potential gas storage tank rupture. A special test stand was designed and built in order to verify experimentally the blast effects in controlled conditions. In order to obtain such a shock wave a pressurized plastic tank was used. The tank was ruptured and the resulting pressure wave was recorded using a spatially-distributed array of pressure sensors connected to a high-speed data acquisition device. The results of the experiments and the comparison with theoretical values obtained from thermodynamic model of the blast are presented. A good agreement between the simulated and measured data was obtained. Recommendations regarding the applicability of thermodynamic model of physical blast versus TNT approach, to estimate consequences of gas storage tank rupture are formulated. The laboratory scale experimental results have been scaled to ITER pressurized helium storage tanks.

A review on animal models and treatments for the reconstruction of Achilles and flexor tendons.

PubMed

Bottagisio, Marta; Lovati, Arianna B

2017-03-01

Tendon is a connective tissue mainly composed of collagen fibers with peculiar mechanical properties essential to functional movements. The increasing incidence of tendon traumatic injuries and ruptures-associated or not with the loss of tissue-falls on the growing interest in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. The use of animal models is mandatory to deepen the knowledge of the tendon healing response to severe damages or acute transections. Thus, the selection of preclinical models is crucial to ensure a successful translation of effective and safe innovative treatments to the clinical practice. The current review is focused on animal models of tendon ruptures and lacerations or defective injuries with large tissue loss that require surgical approaches or grafting procedures. Data published between 2000 and 2016 were examined. The analyzed articles were compiled from Pub Med-NCBI using search terms, including animal model(s) AND tendon augmentation OR tendon substitute(s) OR tendon substitution OR tendon replacement OR tendon graft(s) OR tendon defect(s) OR tendon rupture(s). This article presents the existing preclinical models - considering their advantages and disadvantages-in which translational progresses have been made by using bioactive sutures or tissue engineering that combines biomaterials with cells and growth factors to efficiently treat transections or large defects of Achilles and flexor tendons.

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Thesken, John C.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2007-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Long-period spectral features of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake rupture process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clévédé, E.; Bukchin, B.; Favreau, P.; Mostinskiy, A.; Aoudia, A.; Panza, G. F.

2012-12-01

The goal of this study is to investigate the spatial variability of the seismic radiation spectral content of the Sumatra-Andaman 2004 earthquake. We determine the integral estimates of source geometry, duration and rupture propagation given by the stress glut moments of total degree 2 of different source models. These models are constructed from a single or a joint use of different observations including seismology, geodesy, altimetry and tide gauge data. The comparative analysis shows coherency among the different models and no strong contradictions are found between the integral estimates of geodetic and altimetric models, and those retrieved from very long period seismic records (up to 2000-3000 s). The comparison between these results and the integral estimates derived from observed surface wave spectra in period band from 500 to 650 s suggests that the northern part of the fault (to the north of 8°N near Nicobar Islands) did not radiate long period seismic waves, that is, period shorter than 650 s at least. This conclusion is consistent with the existing composite short and long rise time tsunami model: with short rise time of slip in the southern part of the fault and very long rise time of slip at the northern part. This complex space-time slip evolution can be reproduced by a simple dynamic model of the rupture assuming a crude phenomenological mechanical behaviour of the rupture interface at the fault scales combining an effective slip-controlled exponential weakening effect, related to possible friction and damage breakdown processes of the fault zone, and an effective linear viscous strengthening effect, related to possible interface lubrication processes. While the rupture front speed remains unperturbed with initial short slip duration, a slow creep wave propagates behind the rupture front in the case of viscous effects accounting for the long slip duration and the radiation characteristics in the northern segment.

Modeling Of Spontaneous Multiscale Roughening And Branching of Ruptures Propagating On A Slip-Weakening Frictional Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, A. E.

2013-12-01

Numerous field and experimental observations suggest that faults surfaces are rough at multiple scales and tend to produce a wide range of branch sizes ranging from micro-branching to large scale secondary faults. The development and evolution of fault roughness and branching is believed to play an important role in rupture dynamics and energy partitioning. Previous work by several groups has succeeded in determining conditions under which a main rupture may branch into a secondary fault. Recently, there great progress has been made in investigating rupture propagation on rough faults with and without off-fault plasticity. Nonetheless, in most of these models the heterogeneity, whether the roughness profile or the secondary faults orientation, was built into the system from the beginning and consequently the final outcome depends strongly on the initial conditions. Here we introduce an adaptive mesh technique for modeling mode-II crack propagation on slip weakening frictional interfaces. We use a Finite Element Framework with random mesh topology that adapts to crack dynamics through element splitting and sequential insertion of frictional interfaces dictated by the failure criterion. This allows the crack path to explore non-planar paths and develop the roughness profile that is most compatible with the dynamical constraints. It also enables crack branching at different scales. We quantify energy dissipation due to the roughening process and small scale branching. We compare the results of our model to a reference case for propagation on a planar fault. We show that the small scale processes of roughening and branching influence many characteristics of the rupture propagation including the energy partitioning, rupture speed and peak slip rates. We also estimate the fracture energy required for propagating a crack on a planar fault that will be required to produce comparable results. We anticipate that this modeling approach provides an attractive methodology that complements the current efforts in modeling off-fault plasticity and damage.

Supershear rupture in the 24 May 2013 Mw 6.7 Okhotsk deep earthquake: Additional evidence from regional seismic stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Zhongwen; Shearer, Peter M.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2015-10-01

Zhan et al. (2014a) reported supershear rupture during the Mw 6.7 aftershock of the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk deep earthquake, relying heavily on the regional station PET, which played a critical role in constraining the vertical rupture dimension and rupture speed. Here we include five more regional stations and find that the durations of the source time functions derived from these stations are consistent with Zhan et al.'s supershear rupture model. Furthermore, to reduce the nonuniqueness of deconvolution and combine the bandwidths of different stations, we conduct a joint inversion of the six regional stations for a single broadband moment-rate function (MRF). The best fitting MRF, which explains all the regional waveforms well, has a smooth shape without any temporal gaps. The Mw 6.7 Okhotsk deep earthquake is more likely a continuous supershear rupture than a dynamically triggered doublet.

Blood flow characteristics in a terminal basilar tip aneurysm prior to its fatal rupture

PubMed Central

Sforza, D.M.; Putman, C.M.; Scrivano, E.; Lylyk, P.; Cebral, J.R.

2010-01-01

Background and Purpose The development and validation of methods to stratify the risk of rupture of cerebral aneurysms is highly desired since current treatment risks can exceed the natural risk of rupture. Because unruptured aneurysms are typically treated before they rupture, it is very difficult to connect the proposed risk indices to the rupture of an individual aneurysm. The purpose of this case study was to analyze the hemodynamic environment of a saccular aneurysm of the terminal morphology sub-type that was imaged just prior to its rupture and to test whether the hemodynamic characteristics would designate this particular aneurysm as at high risk. Methods A patient-specific computational fluid dynamics model was constructed from 3D rotational angiography images acquired just hours before the aneurysm ruptured. A pulsatile flow calculation was performed and hemodynamic characteristics previously connected to rupture were analyzed. Results It was found that the aneurysm had a concentrated inflow stream, small impingement region, complex intra-aneurysmal flow structure, asymmetric flow split from the parent vessel to the aneurysm and daughter branches, and high levels of aneurysmal wall shear stress near the impaction zone. Conclusions The hemodynamics characteristics observed in this aneurysm right before its rupture are consistent with previous studies correlating aneurysm rupture and hemodynamic patterns in saccular and terminal aneurysms. This study supports the notion that hemodynamic information may be used to help stratify the rupture risk of cerebral aneurysms. PMID:20150312

Hybrid broadband Ground Motion simulation based on a dynamic rupture model of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Bayless, J.; Dalguer, L. A.

2015-12-01

The rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake exhibits depth-dependent variations in the frequency content of seismic radiation from the plate interface. This depth-varying rupture property has also been observed in other subduction zones (Lay et al, 2012). During the Tohoku earthquake, the shallow region radiated coherent low frequency seismic waves whereas the deeper region radiated high frequency waves. Several kinematic inversions (Suzuki et al, 2011; Lee et al, 2011; Bletery et al, 2014; Minson et al, 2014) detected seismic waves below 0.1 Hz coming from the shallow depths that produced slip larger than 40-50 meters close to the trench. Using empirical green functions, Asano & Iwata (2012), Kurahashi and Irikura (2011) and others detected regions of strong ground motion radiation at frequencies up to 10Hz located mainly at the bottom of the plate interface. A recent dynamic model that embodies this depth-dependent radiation using physical models has been developed by Galvez et al (2014, 2015). In this model the rupture process is modeled using a linear weakening friction law with slip reactivation on the shallow region of the plate interface (Galvez et al, 2015). This model reproduces the multiple seismic wave fronts recorded on the Kik-net seismic network along the Japanese coast up to 0.1 Hz as well as the GPS displacements. In the deep region, the rupture sequence is consistent with the sequence of the strong ground motion generation areas (SMGAs) that radiate high frequency ground motion at the bottom of the plate interface (Kurahashi and Irikura, 2013). It remains challenging to perform ground motions fully coupled with a dynamic rupture up to 10 Hz for a megathrust event. Therefore, to generate high frequency ground motions, we make use of the stochastic approach of Graves and Pitarka (2010) but add to the source spectrum the slip rate function of the dynamic model. In this hybrid-dynamic approach, the slip rate function is windowed with Gaussian noise where the duration of the time window and the starting rupture is determined by the slip rate function at each point in the fault (Dalguer et al, 2002). Finally, to validate this method we compare the synthetic seismograms with the recorded ground motion for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake up to 10 Hz.

Empirical Relationships Among Magnitude and Surface Rupture Characteristics of Strike-Slip Faults: Effect of Fault (System) Geometry and Observation Location, Dervided From Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zielke, O.; Arrowsmith, J.

2007-12-01

In order to determine the magnitude of pre-historic earthquakes, surface rupture length, average and maximum surface displacement are utilized, assuming that an earthquake of a specific size will cause surface features of correlated size. The well known Wells and Coppersmith (1994) paper and other studies defined empirical relationships between these and other parameters, based on historic events with independently known magnitude and rupture characteristics. However, these relationships show relatively large standard deviations and they are based only on a small number of events. To improve these first-order empirical relationships, the observation location relative to the rupture extent within the regional tectonic framework should be accounted for. This however cannot be done based on natural seismicity because of the limited size of datasets on large earthquakes. We have developed the numerical model FIMozFric, based on derivations by Okada (1992) to create synthetic seismic records for a given fault or fault system under the influence of either slip- or stress boundary conditions. Our model features A) the introduction of an upper and lower aseismic zone, B) a simple Coulomb friction law, C) bulk parameters simulating fault heterogeneity, and D) a fault interaction algorithm handling the large number of fault patches (typically 5,000-10,000). The joint implementation of these features produces well behaved synthetic seismic catalogs and realistic relationships among magnitude and surface rupture characteristics which are well within the error of the results by Wells and Coppersmith (1994). Furthermore, we use the synthetic seismic records to show that the relationships between magntiude and rupture characteristics are a function of the observation location within the regional tectonic framework. The model presented here can to provide paleoseismologists with a tool to improve magnitude estimates from surface rupture characteristics, by incorporating the regional and local structural context which can be determined in the field: Assuming a paleoseismologist measures the offset along a fault caused by an earthquake, our model can be used to determine the probability distribution of magnitudes which are capable of producing the observed offset, accounting for regional tectonic setting and observation location.

Simulating Large-Scale Earthquake Dynamic Rupture Scenarios On Natural Fault Zones Using the ADER-DG Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice; Pelties, Christian

2014-05-01

In this presentation we will demonstrate the benefits of using modern numerical methods to support physic-based ground motion modeling and research. For this purpose, we utilize SeisSol an arbitrary high-order derivative Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) scheme to solve the spontaneous rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time using three-dimensional unstructured tetrahedral meshes. We recently verified the method in various advanced test cases of the 'SCEC/USGS Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise' benchmark suite, including branching and dipping fault systems, heterogeneous background stresses, bi-material faults and rate-and-state friction constitutive formulations. Now, we study the dynamic rupture process using 3D meshes of fault systems constructed from geological and geophysical constraints, such as high-resolution topography, 3D velocity models and fault geometries. Our starting point is a large scale earthquake dynamic rupture scenario based on the 1994 Northridge blind thrust event in Southern California. Starting from this well documented and extensively studied event, we intend to understand the ground-motion, including the relevant high frequency content, generated from complex fault systems and its variation arising from various physical constraints. For example, our results imply that the Northridge fault geometry favors a pulse-like rupture behavior.

Intermediate Temperature Strength Degradation in SiC/SiC Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morscher, Gregory N.; Cawley, James D.; Levine, Stanley (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Woven silicon carbide fiber-reinforced, silicon carbide matrix composites are leading candidate materials for an advanced jet engine combustor liner application. Although the use temperature in the hot region for this application is expected to exceed 1200 C, a potential life-limiting concern for this composite system exists at intermediate temperatures (800 +/- 200 C), where significant time-dependent strength degradation has been observed under stress-rupture loading. A number of factors control the degree of stress-rupture strength degradation, the major factor being the nature of the interphase separating the fiber and the matrix. BN interphases are superior to carbon interphases due to the slower oxidation kinetics of BN. A model for the intermediate temperature stress-rupture of SiC/BN/SiC composites is presented based on the observed mechanistic process that leads to strength degradation for the simple case of through-thickness matrix cracks. The approach taken has much in common with that used by Curtin and coworkers, for two different composite systems. The predictions of the model are in good agreement with the rupture data for stress-rupture of both precracked and as-produced composites. Also, three approaches that dramatically improve the intermediate temperature stress-rupture properties are described: Si-doped BN, fiber spreading, and 'outside debonding'.

Piecemeal Rupture of the Mentawai Patch, Sumatra: The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Rino; Hill, Emma M.; Feng, Lujia; Lindsey, Eric O.; Mele Veedu, Deepa; Barbot, Sylvain; Banerjee, Paramesh; Hermawan, Iwan; Natawidjaja, Danny H.

2017-11-01

The 25 February 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake partially ruptured the middle section of the Mentawai patch of the Sunda megathrust, offshore Sumatra. The patch has been forecast to generate a great earthquake in the next few decades. However, in the current cycle the patch has so far broken in a sequence of partial ruptures, one of which was the 2008 event, illustrating the potential of the patch to generate a spectrum of earthquake sizes. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution of the 2008 event by jointly inverting coseismic offsets from GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar. We then estimate afterslip with 5.6 years of cumulative GPS displacements. Our results suggest that the estimated afterslip partially overlaps the coseismic rupture. The overlap of coseismic rupture and afterslip can be explained conceptually by a simple rate-and-state model where the degree of overlapping is controlled by the dynamic weakening and the critical nucleation size in the velocity-weakening area. Comparing our rate-and-state model results with our geodetic inversion results, we suggest that the part of the coseismic rupture that does not overlap with the afterslip may represent a velocity-weakening region, while the overlapping part may represent a velocity-strengthening region.

Stress drop inferred from dynamic rupture simulations consistent with Moment-Rupture area empirical scaling models: Effects of week shallow zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, L. A.; Miyake, H.; Irikura, K.; Wu, H., Sr.

2016-12-01

Empirical scaling models of seismic moment and rupture area provide constraints to parameterize source parameters, such as stress drop, for numerical simulations of ground motion. There are several scaling models published in the literature. The effect of the finite width seismogenic zone and the free-surface have been attributed to cause the breaking of the well know self-similar scaling (e.g. Dalguer et al, 2008) given origin to the so called L and W models for large faults. These models imply the existence of three-stage scaling relationship between seismic moment and rupture area (e.g. Irikura and Miyake, 2011). In this paper we extend the work done by Dalguer et al 2008, in which these authors calibrated fault models that match the observations showing that the average stress drop is independent of earthquake size for buried earthquakes, but scale dependent for surface-rupturing earthquakes. Here we have developed additional sets of dynamic rupture models for vertical strike slip faults to evaluate the effect of the weak shallow layer (WSL) zone for the calibration of stress drop. Rupture in the WSL zone is expected to operate with enhanced energy absorption mechanism. The set of dynamic models consists of fault models with width 20km and fault length L=20km, 40km, 60km, 80km, 100km, 120km, 200km, 300km and 400km and average stress drop values of 2.0MPa, 2.5MPa, 3.0MPa, 3.5MPa, 5.0MPa and 7.5MPa. For models that break the free-surface, the WSL zone is modeled assuming a 2km width with stress drop 0.0MPa or -2.0 MPa. Our results show that depending on the characterization of the WSL zone, the average stress drop at the seismogenic zone that fit the empirical models changes. If WSL zone is not considered, that is, stress drop at SL zone is the same as the seismogenic zone, average stress drop is about 20% smaller than models with WSL zone. By introducing more energy absorption at the SL zone, that could be the case of large mature faults, the average stress drop in the seismogenic zone increases. Suggesting that large earthquakes need higher stress drop to break the fault than buried and moderate earthquakes. Therefore, the value of the average stress drop for large events that break the free-source depend on the definition of the WSL. Suggesting that the WSL plays an important role on the prediction of final slip and fault displacement.

A minimal rupture cascade model for living cell plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polizzi, Stefano; Laperrousaz, Bastien; Perez-Reche, Francisco J.; Nicolini, Franck E.; Maguer Satta, Véronique; Arneodo, Alain; Argoul, Françoise

2018-05-01

Under physiological and pathological conditions, cells experience large forces and deformations that often exceed the linear viscoelastic regime. Here we drive CD34+ cells isolated from healthy and leukemic bone marrows in the highly nonlinear elasto-plastic regime, by poking their perinuclear region with a sharp AFM cantilever tip. We use the wavelet transform mathematical microscope to identify singular events in the force-indentation curves induced by local rupture events in the cytoskeleton (CSK). We distinguish two types of rupture events, brittle failures likely corresponding to irreversible ruptures in a stiff and highly cross-linked CSK and ductile failures resulting from dynamic cross-linker unbindings during plastic deformation without loss of CSK integrity. We propose a stochastic multiplicative cascade model of mechanical ruptures that reproduces quantitatively the experimental distributions of the energy released during these events, and provides some mathematical and mechanistic understanding of the robustness of the log-normal statistics observed in both brittle and ductile situations. We also show that brittle failures are relatively more prominent in leukemia than in healthy cells suggesting their greater fragility.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Source Mechanism and Near-field Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.; Cheung, K.; Lay, T.

2011-12-01

The Tohoku-oki great earthquake ruptured the megathrust fault offshore of Miyagi and Fukushima in Northeast Honshu with moment magnitude of Mw 9.0 on March 11, 2011, and generated strong shaking across the region. The resulting tsunami devastated the northeastern Japan coasts and damaged coastal infrastructure across the Pacific. The extensive global seismic networks, dense geodetic instruments, well-positioned buoys and wave gauges, and comprehensive runup records along the northeast Japan coasts provide datasets of unprecedented quality and coverage for investigation of the tsunami source mechanism and near-field wave characteristics. Our finite-source model reconstructs detailed source rupture processes by inversion of teleseismic P waves recorded around the globe. The finite-source solution is validated through comparison with the static displacements recoded at the ARIA (JPL-GSI) GPS stations and models obtained by inversion of high-rate GPS observations. The rupture model has two primary slip regions, near the hypocenter and along the trench; the maximum slip is about 60 m near the trench. Together with the low rupture velocity, the Tohoku-oki event has characteristics in common with tsunami earthquakes, although it ruptured across the entire megathrust. Superposition of the deformation of the subfaults from the planar fault model according to their rupture initiation and rise times specifies the seafloor vertical displacement and velocity for tsunami modeling. We reconstruct the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from the time histories of the seafloor deformation using the dispersive long-wave model NEOWAVE (Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs). The computed results are compared with data from six GPS gauges and three wave gauges near the source at 120~200-m and 50-m water depth, as well as DART buoys positioned across the Pacific. The shock-capturing model reproduces near-shore tsunami bores and the runup data gathered by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group. Spectral analysis of the computed surface elevation reveals a series of resonance modes and areas prone to tsunami hazards. This case study improves our understanding of near-field tsunami waves and validates the modeling capability to predict their impacts for hazard mitigation and emergency management.

Multi-fluid Dynamics for Supersonic Jet-and-Crossflows and Liquid Plug Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Ezeldin A.

Multi-fluid dynamics simulations require appropriate numerical treatments based on the main flow characteristics, such as flow speed, turbulence, thermodynamic state, and time and length scales. In this thesis, two distinct problems are investigated: supersonic jet and crossflow interactions; and liquid plug propagation and rupture in an airway. Gaseous non-reactive ethylene jet and air crossflow simulation represents essential physics for fuel injection in SCRAMJET engines. The regime is highly unsteady, involving shocks, turbulent mixing, and large-scale vortical structures. An eddy-viscosity-based multi-scale turbulence model is proposed to resolve turbulent structures consistent with grid resolution and turbulence length scales. Predictions of the time-averaged fuel concentration from the multi-scale model is improved over Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models originally derived from stationary flow. The response to the multi-scale model alone is, however, limited, in cases where the vortical structures are small and scattered thus requiring prohibitively expensive grids in order to resolve the flow field accurately. Statistical information related to turbulent fluctuations is utilized to estimate an effective turbulent Schmidt number, which is shown to be highly varying in space. Accordingly, an adaptive turbulent Schmidt number approach is proposed, by allowing the resolved field to adaptively influence the value of turbulent Schmidt number in the multi-scale turbulence model. The proposed model estimates a time-averaged turbulent Schmidt number adapted to the computed flowfield, instead of the constant value common to the eddy-viscosity-based Navier-Stokes models. This approach is assessed using a grid-refinement study for the normal injection case, and tested with 30 degree injection, showing improved results over the constant turbulent Schmidt model both in mean and variance of fuel concentration predictions. For the incompressible liquid plug propagation and rupture study, numerical simulations are conducted using an Eulerian-Lagrangian approach with a continuous-interface method. A reconstruction scheme is developed to allow topological changes during plug rupture by altering the connectivity information of the interface mesh. Rupture time is shown to be delayed as the initial precursor film thickness increases. During the plug rupture process, a sudden increase of mechanical stresses on the tube wall is recorded, which can cause tissue damage.

Fine structure of the landers fault zone: Segmentation and the rupture process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Y.-G.; Vidale, J.E.; Aki, K.; Marone, C.J.; Lee, W.H.K.

1994-01-01

Observations and modeling of 3- to 6-hertz seismic shear waves trapped within the fault zone of the 1992 Landers earthquake series allow the fine structure and continuity of the zone to be evaluated. The fault, to a depth of at least 12 kilometers, is marked by a zone 100 to 200 meters wide where shear velocity is reduced by 30 to 50 percent. This zone forms a seismic waveguide that extends along the southern 30 kilometers of the Landers rupture surface and ends at the fault bend about 18 kilometers north of the main shock epicenter. Another fault plane waveguide, disconnected from the first, exists along the northern rupture surface. These observations, in conjunction with surface slip, detailed seismicity patterns, and the progression of rupture along the fault, suggest that several simple rupture planes were involved in the Landers earthquake and that the inferred rupture front hesitated or slowed at the location where the rupture jumped from one to the next plane. Reduction in rupture velocity can tentatively be attributed to fault plane complexity, and variations in moment release can be attributed to variations in available energy.

Computational model of retinal photocoagulation and rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sramek, Christopher; Paulus, Yannis M.; Nomoto, Hiroyuki; Huie, Phil; Palanker, Daniel

2009-02-01

In patterned scanning laser photocoagulation, shorter duration (< 20 ms) pulses help reduce thermal damage beyond the photoreceptor layer, decrease treatment time and minimize pain. However, safe therapeutic window (defined as the ratio of rupture threshold power to that of light coagulation) decreases for shorter exposures. To quantify the extent of thermal damage in the retina, and maximize the therapeutic window, we developed a computational model of retinal photocoagulation and rupture. Model parameters were adjusted to match measured thresholds of vaporization, coagulation, and retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) damage. Computed lesion width agreed with histological measurements in a wide range of pulse durations and power. Application of ring-shaped beam profile was predicted to double the therapeutic window width for exposures in the range of 1 - 10 ms.

Rupture history of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake: Evaluation of separate and joint inversions of geodetic, teleseismic, and strong-motion data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, Stephen; Mendoza, Carlos; Ramírez-Guzmán, Leonardo; Zeng, Yuesha; Mooney, Walter

2013-01-01

An extensive data set of teleseismic and strong-motion waveforms and geodetic offsets is used to study the rupture history of the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A linear multiple-time-window approach is used to parameterize the rupture. Because of the complexity of the Wenchuan faulting, three separate planes are used to represent the rupturing surfaces. This earthquake clearly demonstrates the strengths and limitations of geodetic, teleseismic, and strong-motion data sets. Geodetic data (static offsets) are valuable for determining the distribution of shallower slip but are insensitive to deeper faulting and reveal nothing about the timing of slip. Teleseismic data in the distance range 30°–90° generally involve no modeling difficulties because of simple ray paths and can distinguish shallow from deep slip. Teleseismic data, however, cannot distinguish between different slip scenarios when multiple fault planes are involved because steep takeoff angles lead to ambiguity in timing. Local strong-motion data, on the other hand, are ideal for determining the direction of rupture from directivity but can easily be over modeled with inaccurate Green’s functions, leading to misinterpretation of the slip distribution. We show that all three data sets are required to give an accurate description of the Wenchuan rupture. The moment is estimated to be approximately 1.0 × 1021 N · m with the slip characterized by multiple large patches with slips up to 10 m. Rupture initiates on the southern end of the Pengguan fault and proceeds unilaterally to the northeast. Upon reaching the cross-cutting Xiaoyudong fault, rupture of the adjacent Beichuan fault starts at this juncture and proceeds bilaterally to the northeast and southwest.

Interplay of Structure and Sediment Supply May Influence Subduction Zone Rupture Patches and Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldfinger, C.; Wang, K.; Witter, R.; Baptista, A.; Zhang, Y.; Priest, G.; Nelson, H.; Morey, A.; Johnson, J.

2007-12-01

The question of whether there are universal controls on the genesis and maintenance of large slip and moment patches along strike on subduction megathrusts has proved remarkably elusive, in part due to the short temporal records we have of these great events around the globe. Many events this century are poorly constrained, and many subduction zones only have one or a few events available for comparison. Long historical records and good structural constraints have made Nankai a leading case for basin centered asperities, yet the recent Sumatra Mw 9.2 rupture models show that slip and moment for the most part avoided basins and was centered under structural highs. In Cascadia, both deformation and tsunami models clearly fit the respective subsidence and runup data better if slip in past events was centered under or did not avoid these highs as opposed to basin centered model. Onshore and offshore paleoseismic evidence from 38 Cascadia earthquakes strongly suggest that structural segmentation plays a role only along the southernmost margin. These data do not provide information on moment or slip distribution, but do effectively constrain rupture lengths. Rupture lengths constrained by the paleoseismic data show that there is no Holocene segmentation for the northern margin, and that southern segments may be controlled by some of the obvious structural boundaries such as the Blanco Fracture zone, and outer arc uplifts and forearc basins. Where resolution is adequate, these data also suggest that ruptures die out into the basins and are linked multi-segment ruptures of structural uplifts, similar to that observed in the 2004 and 2005 earthquakes from Sumatra where outer arc uplifts may mark segment boundaries, high slip patches and initiation points for great earthquakes. The difference between the rupture modes observed for Nankai and Sumatra, and suggested here for Cascadia may be linked to the sediment supply for these systems. Cascadia and Sumatra are both systems where massive submarine fans are accreting to the margin in their northern regions, with incoming sections of 3-4 km thickness that taper southward. These thick sections promote high fluid pressure, but also tend to smooth the plate interface with respect to structures in both the downgoing and upper plates. A smooth plate interface has long been thought to promote long ruptures and high moment release, and so we suspect that northern Cascadia and northern Sumatra may be prone to large ruptures due to the masking of other structures by large influxes of sediment on the subducting plate. By comparison, the relatively thin sediment supply at Nankai may allow these structural boundaries to play a greater role in rupture propagation and moment release. The smaller southern Cascadia ruptures are also consistent with this model, with structural control taking precedence as the sediment supply thins southward.

Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, M.; Mai, P.M.; Schorlemmer, D.

2011-01-01

Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

Observations of the rupture development process from source time functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renou, Julien; Vallée, Martin

2017-04-01

The mechanisms governing the seismic rupture expansion and leading to earthquakes of very different magnitudes are still under debate. In the cascade model, the rupture starts from a very small patch, which size is undetectable by seismological investigation. Then rupture grows in a self-similar way, implying that no clues about the earthquake magnitude can be found before rupture starts declining. However dependencies between early phases of the rupture process and final magnitude have also been proposed, which can be explained if an earthquake is more likely to be a big one when its start and early development occur in rupture-prone areas. Here, the analysis of the early phases of the seismic rupture is achieved from an observational point of view using the SCARDEC database, a global catalog containing more than 3000 Source Time Functions (STFs) of earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.7. This dataset is theoretically very suitable to investigate the initial phase, because STFs directly describe the seismic moment rate released over time, giving access to the rupture growth behavior. As several studies already showed that deep earthquakes tend to have a specific signature of short duration with respect to magnitude (implying a quicker rupture growth than superficial events), only shallow events (depths < 70km) are analyzed here. Our method consists in computing the STFs slope, i.e. the seismic moment acceleration, at several prescribed moment rates. In order to ensure that the chosen moment rates intersect the growth phase of the STF, its value must be high enough to avoid the very beginning of the signal -not well constrained in the deconvolution process-, and low enough to avoid the proximity of the peak moment rate. This approach does not use any rupture time information, which is interesting as (1) the exact hypocentral time can be uncertain and (2) the real rupture expansion can be delayed compared to origin time. If any magnitude-dependent signal exists, the average or median value of the slope should vary with the magnitude of the events, despite the intrinsic variability of the STFs. The preliminary results from the SCARDEC dataset seem to only exhibit a weak dependence of the slope with magnitude, in the magnitude domain where the chosen moment rate value crosses most of the STFs onsets. In addition, our results point out that slope values gradually increase with the moment rate. These findings will be discussed in the frame of the existing models of seismic rupture expansion.

Numerical modelling of gravel unconstrained flow experiments with the DAN3D and RASH3D codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauthier, Claire; Pirulli, Marina; Pisani, Gabriele; Scavia, Claudio; Labiouse, Vincent

2015-12-01

Landslide continuum dynamic models have improved considerably in the last years, but a consensus on the best method of calibrating the input resistance parameter values for predictive analyses has not yet emerged. In the present paper, numerical simulations of a series of laboratory experiments performed at the Laboratory for Rock Mechanics of the EPF Lausanne were undertaken with the RASH3D and DAN3D numerical codes. They aimed at analysing the possibility to use calibrated ranges of parameters (1) in a code different from that they were obtained from and (2) to simulate potential-events made of a material with the same characteristics as back-analysed past-events, but involving a different volume and propagation path. For this purpose, one of the four benchmark laboratory tests was used as past-event to calibrate the dynamic basal friction angle assuming a Coulomb-type behaviour of the sliding mass, and this back-analysed value was then used to simulate the three other experiments, assumed as potential-events. The computational findings show good correspondence with experimental results in terms of characteristics of the final deposits (i.e., runout, length and width). Furthermore, the obtained best fit values of the dynamic basal friction angle for the two codes turn out to be close to each other and within the range of values measured with pseudo-dynamic tilting tests.

Aftershock Distribution of the Mw=7.8 April 16, 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Subduction Earthquake: Constraints from 3D Earthquake Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Font, Y.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Regnier, M. M.; Rolandone, F.; Charvis, P.; Mothes, P. A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Jarrin, P.; Ambrois, D.; Maron, C.; Deschamps, A.; Cheze, J.; Peix, F., Sr.; Ruiz, M. C.; Gabriela, P.; Acero, W.; Singaucho, J. C.; Viracucha, C.; Vasconez, F.; De Barros, L.; Mercerat, D.; Courboulex, F.; Galve, A.; Godano, M.; Monfret, T.; Ramos, C.; Martin, X.; Rietbrock, A.; Beck, S. L.; Metlzer, A.

2017-12-01

The Mw7.8 Pedernales earthquake is associated with the subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American Plate. The mainshock caused many casualties and widespread damage across the Manabi province. The 150 km-long coseismic rupture area extends beneath the coastline, near 25 km depth. The rupture propagated southward and involved the successive rupture of two discrete asperities, with a maximum slip ( 5 m) on the southern patch. The rupture area is consistent with the highly locked regions observed on interseismic coupling models, overlaps the 7.2 Mw rupture zone, and terminates near where the 1906 Mw 8.8 megathrust earthquake rupture zone is estimated to have ended. Two neighboring highly coupled patches remain locked: (A) south and updip of the coseismic rupture zone and (B) north and downdip. In this study, we are working on the earthquake locations of the first month of aftershocks and compare the seismicity distribution to the interseismic coupling, the rupture area and to early afterslip. We use continuous seismic traces recorded on the permanent network partly installed in the framework of the collaboration between l'Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (France) and the Instituto Geofísico, Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IGEPN), Quito, Ecuador. Detections are conducted using Seiscomp in play-back mode and arrival-times are manually picked. To improve earthquake locations, we use the MAXi technique and a heterogeneous a priori P-wave velocity model that approximates the large velocity variations of the Ecuadorian subduction system. Aftershocks align along 3 to 4 main clusters that strike perpendicularly to the trench, and mostly updip of the co-seismic rupture. Seismicity develops over portions of plate interface that are known to be strongly locked or almost uncoupled. The seismicity pattern is similar to the one observed during a decade of observation during the interseismic period with swarms such as the Galera alignment, Jama and Cabo Pasado, Manta to Puerto Lopez.

Tear-Film Evaporation Rate from Simultaneous Ocular-Surface Temperature and Tear-Breakup Area.

PubMed

Dursch, Thomas J; Li, Wing; Taraz, Baseem; Lin, Meng C; Radke, Clayton J

2018-01-01

A corneal heat-transfer model is presented to quantify simultaneous measurements of fluorescein tear-breakup area (TBA) and ocular-surface temperature (OST). By accounting for disruption of the tear-film lipid layer (TFLL), we report evaporation rates through lipid-covered tear. The modified heat-transfer model provides new insights into evaporative dry eye. A quantitative analysis is presented to assess human aqueous tear evaporation rate (TER) through intact TFLLs from simultaneous in vivo measurement of time-dependent infrared OST and fluorescein TBA. We interpret simultaneous OST and TBA measurements using an extended heat-transfer model. We hypothesize that TBAs are ineffectively insulated by the TFLL and therefore exhibit higher TER than does that for a well-insulting TFLL-covered tear. As time proceeds, TBAs increase in number and size, thereby increasing the cornea area-averaged TER and decreasing OST. Tear-breakup areas were assessed from image analysis of fluorescein tear-film-breakup video recordings and are included in the heat-transfer description of OST. Model-predicted OSTs agree well with clinical experiments. Percent reductions in TER of lipid-covered tear range from 50 to 95% of that for pure water, in good agreement with literature. The physical picture of noninsulating or ruptured TFLL spots followed by enhanced evaporation from underlying cooler tear-film ruptures is consistent with the evaporative-driven mechanism for local tear rupture. A quantitative analysis is presented of in vivo TER from simultaneous clinical measurement of transient OST and TBA. The new heat-transfer model accounts for increased TER through expanding TBAs. Tear evaporation rate varies strongly across the cornea because lipid is effectively missing over tear-rupture troughs. The result is local faster evaporation compared with nonruptured, thick lipid-covered tear. Evaporative-driven tear-film ruptures deepen to a thickness where fluorescein quenching commences and local salinity rises to uncomfortable levels. Mitigation of tear-film rupture may therefore reduce dry eye-related symptoms.

Intrinsic, Transitional, and Extrinsic Morphological Factors Associated With Rupture of Intracranial Aneurysms.

PubMed

Ho, Allen L; Lin, Ning; Frerichs, Kai U; Du, Rose

2015-09-01

As diagnosis and treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms continues to increase, management principles remain largely based on size. This is despite mounting evidence that aneurysm location and other morphologic variables could play a role in predicting overall risk of rupture. Morphological parameters can be divided into 3 main groups, those that are intrinsic to the aneurysm, those that are extrinsic to the aneurysm, and those that involve both the aneurysm and surrounding vasculature (transitional). We present an evaluation of intrinsic, transitional, and extrinsic factors and their association with ruptured aneurysms. Using preoperative computed tomographic angiography, we generated 3-dimensional models of aneurysms and their surrounding vasculature with Slicer software. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the association of intrinsic, transitional, and extrinsic aspects of aneurysm morphology with rupture. Between 2005 and 2013, 227 cerebral aneurysms in 4 locations were evaluated/treated at a single institution, and computed tomographic angiographies of 218 patients (97 unruptured and 130 ruptured) were analyzed. Ruptured aneurysms analyzed were associated with clinical factors of absence of multiple aneurysms and history of no prior rupture, and morphologic factors of greater aspect ratio. On multivariate analysis, aneurysm rupture remained associated with history of no prior rupture, greater flow angle, greater daughter-daughter vessel angle, and smaller parent-daughter vessel angle. By studying the morphology of aneurysms and their surrounding vasculature, we identified several parameters associated with ruptured aneurysms that include intrinsic, transitional, and extrinsic factors of cerebral aneurysms and their surrounding vasculature.

Complementary roles of platelets and coagulation in thrombus formation on plaques acutely ruptured by targeted ultrasound treatment: a novel intravital model.

PubMed

Kuijpers, M J E; Gilio, K; Reitsma, S; Nergiz-Unal, R; Prinzen, L; Heeneman, S; Lutgens, E; van Zandvoort, M A M J; Nieswandt, B; Egbrink, M G A Oude; Heemskerk, J W M

2009-01-01

Atherothrombosis is a major cause of cardiovascular events. However, animal models to study this process are scarce. We describe the first murine model of acute thrombus formation upon plaque rupture to study atherothrombosis by intravital fluorescence microscopy. Localized rupture of an atherosclerotic plaque in a carotid artery from Apoe(-/-) mice was induced in vivo using ultrasound. Rupture of the plaque and formation of localized thrombi were verified by two-photon laser scanning microscopy (TPLSM) in isolated arteries, and by immunohistochemistry. The thrombotic reaction was quantified by intravital fluorescence microscopy. Inspection of the ultrasound-treated plaques by histochemistry and TPLSM demonstrated local damage, collagen exposure, luminal thrombus formation as well as intra-plaque intrusion of erythrocytes and fibrin. Ultrasound treatment of healthy carotid arteries resulted in endothelial damage and limited platelet adhesion. Real-time intravital fluorescence microscopy demonstrated rapid platelet deposition on plaques and formation of a single thrombus that remained subocclusive. The thrombotic process was antagonized by thrombin inhibition, or by blocking of collagen or adenosine diphosphate receptor pathways. Multiple thrombi were formed in 70% of mice lacking CD40L. Targeted rupture of murine plaques results in collagen exposure and non-occlusive thrombus formation. The thrombotic process relies on platelet activation as well as on thrombin generation and coagulation, and is sensitive to established and novel antithrombotic medication. This model provides new possibilities to study atherothrombosis in vivo.

The Differences in Source Dynamics Between Intermediate-Depth and Deep EARTHQUAKES:A Comparative Study Between the 2014 Rat Islands Intermediate-Depth Earthquake and the 2015 Bonin Islands Deep Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twardzik, C.; Ji, C.

2015-12-01

It has been proposed that the mechanisms for intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes might be different. While previous extensive seismological studies suggested that such potential differences do not significantly affect the scaling relationships of earthquake parameters, there has been only a few investigations regarding their dynamic characteristics, especially for fracture energy. In this work, the 2014 Mw7.9 Rat Islands intermediate-depth (105 km) earthquake and the 2015 Mw7.8 Bonin Islands deep (680 km) earthquake are studied from two different perspectives. First, their kinematic rupture models are constrained using teleseismic body waves. Our analysis reveals that the Rat Islands earthquake breaks the entire cold core of the subducting slab defined as the depth of the 650oC isotherm. The inverted stress drop is 4 MPa, compatible to that of intra-plate earthquakes at shallow depths. On the other hand, the kinematic rupture model of the Bonin Islands earthquake, which occurred in a region lacking of seismicity for the past forty years, according to the GCMT catalog, exhibits an energetic rupture within a 35 km by 30 km slip patch and a high stress drop of 24 MPa. It is of interest to note that although complex rupture patterns are allowed to match the observations, the inverted slip distributions of these two earthquakes are simple enough to be approximated as the summation of a few circular/elliptical slip patches. Thus, we investigate subsequently their dynamic rupture models. We use a simple modelling approach in which we assume that the dynamic rupture propagation obeys a slip-weakening friction law, and we describe the distribution of stress and friction on the fault as a set of elliptical patches. We will constrain the three dynamic parameters that are yield stress, background stress prior to the rupture and slip weakening distance, as well as the shape of the elliptical patches directly from teleseismic body waves observations. The study would help us getting a better understanding of the dynamic conditions that control the rupture behaviour of these two types of earthquakes, and subsequently improving our knowledge of the dynamics of subducting slabs.

Segmentation and supercycles: A catalog of earthquake cycle complexities from the Sumatran Sunda Megathrust and other well-studied faults worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philibosian, B.; Meltzner, A. J.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Understanding earthquake cycle processes is key to both seismic hazard and fault mechanics. A concept that has come into focus recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex, and that simple models of periodically repeating similar earthquakes are inadequate. The term "supercycle" has been used to describe repeating longer periods of strain accumulation that involve multiple fault ruptures. However, this term has become broadly applied, lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes. Earthquake recurrence patterns have often been described as "clustered," but this term is also imprecise. It is necessary to develop a terminology framework that consistently and meaningfully describes all types of behavior that are observed. We divide earthquake cycle patterns into four major classes, each having different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics: 1) quasi-periodic similar ruptures, 2) temporally clustered similar ruptures, 3) temporally clustered complementary ruptures, also known as rupture cascades, in which neighboring fault patches fail sequentially, and 4) superimposed cycles in which neighboring fault patches have cycles with different recurrence intervals, but may occasionally rupture together. Rupture segmentation is classified as persistent, frequent, or transient depending on how reliably ruptures terminate in a given area. We discuss the paleoseismic and historical evidence currently available for each of these types of behavior on subduction zone megathrust faults worldwide. Due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique, the Sumatran Sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple seismic cycles. Most subduction zones with sufficient data exhibit examples of persistent and frequent segmentation, with cycle patterns 1, 3, and 4 on different segments. Pattern 2 is generally confined to overlap zones between segments. This catalog of seismic cycle observations provides a basis for exploring and modeling root causes of rupture segmentation and cycle behavior. Researchers should expect to discover similar behavior styles on other megathrust faults and perhaps major crustal faults around the world.

Slip complexity and frictional heterogeneities in dynamic fault models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizzarri, A.

2005-12-01

The numerical modeling of earthquake rupture requires the specification of the fault system geometry, the mechanical properties of the media surrounding the fault, the initial conditions and the constitutive law for fault friction. The latter accounts for the fault zone properties and allows for the description of processes of nucleation, propagation, healing and arrest of a spontaneous rupture. In this work I solve the fundamental elasto-dynamic equation for a planar fault, adopting different constitutive equations (slip-dependent and rate- and state-dependent friction laws). We show that the slip patterns may be complicated by different causes. The spatial heterogeneities of constitutive parameters are able to cause the healing of slip, like barrier-healing or slip pulses. Our numerical experiments show that the heterogeneities of the parameter L affect the dynamic rupture propagation and weakly modify the dynamic stress drop and the rupture velocity. The heterogeneity of a and b parameters affects the dynamic rupture propagation in a more complex way: a velocity strengthening area (a > b) can arrest a dynamic rupture, but can be driven to an instability if suddenly loaded by the dynamic rupture front. Our simulations provide a picture of the complex interactions between fault patches having different frictional properties. Moreover, the slip distribution on the fault plane is complicated considering the effects of the rake rotation during the propagation: depending on the position on the fault plane, the orientation of instantaneous total dynamic traction can change with time with respect to the imposed initial stress direction. These temporal rake rotations depend on the amplitude of the initial stress and on its distribution. They also depend on the curvature and direction of the rupture front with respect to the imposed initial stress direction: this explains why rake rotations are mostly located near the rupture front and within the cohesive zone, where the breakdown processes take places. Finally, the rupture behavior, the fault slip distribution and the traction evolution may be changed and complicated including additional physical phenomena, like thermal pressurization of pore fluid (due to frictional heating). Our results involve interesting implications for slip duration and fracture energy.

Dynamic fracture network around faults: implications for earthquake ruptures, ground motion and energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, K.; Bhat, H. S.; Rougier, E.; Lei, Z.; Knight, E. E.; Klinger, Y.

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have suggested that spontaneous earthquake ruptures can dynamically induce failure in secondary fracture network, regarded as damage zone around faults. The feedbacks of such fracture network play a crucial role in earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the total energy budget. A novel numerical modeling tool based on the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which accounts for the main rupture propagation and nucleation/propagation of secondary cracks, was used to quantify the evolution of the fracture network and evaluate its effects on the main rupture and its associated radiation. The simulations were performed with the FDEM-based software tool, Hybrid Optimization Software Suite (HOSSedu) developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We first modeled an earthquake rupture on a planar strike-slip fault surrounded by a brittle medium where secondary cracks can be nucleated/activated by the earthquake rupture. We show that the secondary cracks are dynamically generated dominantly on the extensional side of the fault, mainly behind the rupture front, and it forms an intricate network of fractures in the damage zone. The rupture velocity thereby significantly decreases, by 10 to 20 percent, while the supershear transition length increases in comparison to the one with purely elastic medium. It is also observed that the high-frequency component (10 to 100 Hz) of the near-field ground acceleration is enhanced by the dynamically activated fracture network, consistent with field observations. We then conducted the case study in depth with various sets of initial stress state, and friction properties, to investigate the evolution of damage zone. We show that the width of damage zone decreases in depth, forming "flower-like" structure as the characteristic slip distance in linear slip-weakening law, or the fracture energy on the fault, is kept constant with depth. Finally, we compared the fracture energy on the fault to the energy absorbed by the secondary fracture network to better understand the earthquake energy budget. We conclude that the secondary fracture network plays an important role on the dynamic earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the overall energy budget.

Rupture models with dynamically determined breakdown displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.

2004-01-01

The critical breakdown displacement, Dc, in which friction drops to its sliding value, can be made dependent on event size by specifying friction to be a function of variables other than slip. Two such friction laws are examined here. The first is designed to achieve accuracy and smoothness in discrete numerical calculations. Consistent resolution throughout an evolving rupture is achieved by specifying friction as a function of elapsed time after peak stress is reached. Such a time-weakening model produces Dc and fracture energy proportional to the square root of distance rupture has propagated in the case of uniform stress drop. The second friction law is more physically motivated. Energy loss in a damage zone outside the slip zone has the effect of increasing Dc and limiting peak slip velocity (Andrews, 1976). This article demonstrates a converse effect, that artificially limiting slip velocity on a fault in an elastic medium has a toughening effect, increasing fracture energy and Dc proportionally to rupture propagation distance in the case of uniform stress drop. Both the time-weakening and the velocity-toughening models can be used in calculations with heterogeneous stress drop.

Surface Rupture Effects on Earthquake Moment-Area Scaling Relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yingdi; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Miyakoshi, Ken; Irikura, Kojiro

2017-09-01

Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M 0) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M 0- A 2, between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M 0- A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes.

A Nonlinear Viscoelastic Model for Ceramics at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Panoskaltsis, Vassilis P.; Gasparini, Dario A.; Choi, Sung R.

2002-01-01

High-temperature creep behavior of ceramics is characterized by nonlinear time-dependent responses, asymmetric behavior in tension and compression, and nucleation and coalescence of voids leading to creep rupture. Moreover, creep rupture experiments show considerable scatter or randomness in fatigue lives of nominally equal specimens. To capture the nonlinear, asymmetric time-dependent behavior, the standard linear viscoelastic solid model is modified. Nonlinearity and asymmetry are introduced in the volumetric components by using a nonlinear function similar to a hyperbolic sine function but modified to model asymmetry. The nonlinear viscoelastic model is implemented in an ABAQUS user material subroutine. To model the random formation and coalescence of voids, each element is assigned a failure strain sampled from a lognormal distribution. An element is deleted when its volumetric strain exceeds its failure strain. Element deletion has been implemented within ABAQUS. Temporal increases in strains produce a sequential loss of elements (a model for void nucleation and growth), which in turn leads to failure. Nonlinear viscoelastic model parameters are determined from uniaxial tensile and compressive creep experiments on silicon nitride. The model is then used to predict the deformation of four-point bending and ball-on-ring specimens. Simulation is used to predict statistical moments of creep rupture lives. Numerical simulation results compare well with results of experiments of four-point bending specimens. The analytical model is intended to be used to predict the creep rupture lives of ceramic parts in arbitrary stress conditions.

The hemodynamics in intracranial aneurysm ruptured region with active contrast leakage during computed tomography angiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming-Lung; Wang, Yi-Chou; Liou, Tong-Miin; Lin, Chao-An

2014-10-01

Precise locations of rupture region under contrast agent leakage of five ruptured cerebral artery aneurysms during computed tomography angiography, which is to our knowledge for the first time, were successfully identified among 101 patients. These, together with numerical simulations based on the reconstructed aneurysmal models, were used to analyze hemodynamic parameters of aneurysms under different cardiac cyclic flow rates. For side wall type aneurysms, different inlet flow rates have mild influences on the shear stresses distributions. On the other hand, for branch type aneurysms, the predicted wall shear stress (WSS) correlates strongly with the increase of inlet vessel velocity. The mean and time averaged WSSes at rupture regions are found to be lower than those over the surface of the aneurysms. Also, the levels of the oscillatory shear index (OSI) are higher than the reported threshold value, supporting the assertion that high OSI correlates with rupture of the aneurysm. However, the present results also indicate that OSI level at the rupture region is relatively lower.

Fracture Mechanisms For SiC Fibers And SiC/SiC Composites Under Stress-Rupture Conditions at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DiCarlo, James A.; Yun, Hee Mann; Hurst, Janet B.; Viterna, L. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The successful application of SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites as high-temperature structural materials depends strongly on maximizing the fracture or rupture life of the load-bearing fiber and matrix constituents. Using high-temperature data measured under stress-rupture test conditions, this study examines in a mechanistic manner the effects of various intrinsic and extrinsic factors on the creep and fracture behavior of a variety of SiC fiber types. It is shown that although some fiber types fracture during a large primary creep stage, the fiber creep rate just prior to fracture plays a key role in determining fiber rupture time (Monkman-Grant theory). If it is assumed that SiC matrices rupture in a similar manner as fibers with the same microstructures, one can develop simple mechanistic models to analyze and optimize the stress-rupture behavior of SiC/SiC composites for applied stresses that are initially below matrix cracking.

Heterogeneous Rupture in the Great Cascadia Earthquake of 1700 Inferred from Coastal Subsidence Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Wang, K.; Hawkes, A.; Horton, B. P.; Engelhart, S. E.; Nelson, A. R.; Witter, R. C.

2011-12-01

Abrupt coastal subsidence induced by the great AD 1700 Cascadia earthquake has been estimated from paleoseismic evidence of buried soils and overlying mud and associated tsunamis deposits. These records have been modeled using a rather uniform rupture model, a mirror image of the uniform interseismic fault locking based on modern GPS observations. However, as seen in other megathrust earthquakes such as at Sumatra, Chile, and Alaska, the rupture must have had multiple patches of concentrated slip. Variable moment release is also seen in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, although there is only one patch. The use of a uniform rupture scenario for Cascadia is due mainly to the poor resolving power of the previous paleoseismic data. In this work, we invoke recently obtained more precise data from detailed microfossil studies to better constrain the slip distribution. Our 3-D elastic dislocation model allows the fault slip to vary along strike. Along any profile in the dip direction, we assume a bell-shaped slip distribution with the peak value scaling with local rupture width, consistent with rupture mechanics. We found that the coseismic slip is large in central Cascadia, and areas of high moment release are separated by areas of low moment release. The amount of slip in northern and southern Cascadia is poorly constrained. Although data uncertainties are large, the coastal variable subsidence can be explained with multiple slip patches. For example, there is an area near Alsea Bay, Oregon (about 44.5°N) that, in accordance with the minimum coseismic subsidence estimated by the microfossil data, had very little slip in the 1700 event. This area approximately coincides with a segment boundary previously defined on the basis of gravity anomalies. There is also reported evidence for the presence of a subducting seamount in this area, and the seamount might be responsible for impeding rupture during large earthquakes. The nature of this rupture barrier and whether it is a persistent feature are important topics of future research. Our results indicate that there is not always a one-to-one correlation between areas of more complete interseismic locking and larger coseismic slip.

A novel strategy to translate the biomechanical rupture risk of abdominal aortic aneurysms to their equivalent diameter risk: method and retrospective validation.

PubMed

Gasser, T C; Nchimi, A; Swedenborg, J; Roy, J; Sakalihasan, N; Böckler, D; Hyhlik-Dürr, A

2014-03-01

To translate the individual abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patient's biomechanical rupture risk profile to risk-equivalent diameters, and to retrospectively test their predictability in ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms. Biomechanical parameters of ruptured and non-ruptured AAAs were retrospectively evaluated in a multicenter study. General patient data and high resolution computer tomography angiography (CTA) images from 203 non-ruptured and 40 ruptured aneurysmal infrarenal aortas. Three-dimensional AAA geometries were semi-automatically derived from CTA images. Finite element (FE) models were used to predict peak wall stress (PWS) and peak wall rupture index (PWRI) according to the individual anatomy, gender, blood pressure, intra-luminal thrombus (ILT) morphology, and relative aneurysm expansion. Average PWS diameter and PWRI diameter responses were evaluated, which allowed for the PWS equivalent and PWRI equivalent diameters for any individual aneurysm to be defined. PWS increased linearly and PWRI exponentially with respect to maximum AAA diameter. A size-adjusted analysis showed that PWS equivalent and PWRI equivalent diameters were increased by 7.5 mm (p = .013) and 14.0 mm (p < .001) in ruptured cases when compared to non-ruptured controls, respectively. In non-ruptured cases the PWRI equivalent diameters were increased by 13.2 mm (p < .001) in females when compared with males. Biomechanical parameters like PWS and PWRI allow for a highly individualized analysis by integrating factors that influence the risk of AAA rupture like geometry (degree of asymmetry, ILT morphology, etc.) and patient characteristics (gender, family history, blood pressure, etc.). PWRI and the reported annual risk of rupture increase similarly with the diameter. PWRI equivalent diameter expresses the PWRI through the diameter of the average AAA that has the same PWRI, i.e. is at the same biomechanical risk of rupture. Consequently, PWRI equivalent diameter facilitates a straightforward interpretation of biomechanical analysis and connects to diameter-based guidelines for AAA repair indication. PWRI equivalent diameter reflects an additional diagnostic parameter that may provide more accurate clinical data for AAA repair indication. Copyright © 2013 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bimodal collagen fibril diameter distributions direct age-related variations in tendon resilience and resistance to rupture

PubMed Central

Holmes, D. F.; Lu, Y.; Purslow, P. P.; Kadler, K. E.; Bechet, D.; Wess, T. J.

2012-01-01

Scaling relationships have been formulated to investigate the influence of collagen fibril diameter (D) on age-related variations in the strain energy density of tendon. Transmission electron microscopy was used to quantify D in tail tendon from 1.7- to 35.3-mo-old (C57BL/6) male mice. Frequency histograms of D for all age groups were modeled as two normally distributed subpopulations with smaller (DD1) and larger (DD2) mean Ds, respectively. Both DD1 and DD2 increase from 1.6 to 4.0 mo but decrease thereafter. From tensile tests to rupture, two strain energy densities were calculated: 1) uE [from initial loading until the yield stress (σY)], which contributes primarily to tendon resilience, and 2) uF [from σY through the maximum stress (σU) until rupture], which relates primarily to resistance of the tendons to rupture. As measured by the normalized strain energy densities uE/σY and uF/σU, both the resilience and resistance to rupture increase with increasing age and peak at 23.0 and 4.0 mo, respectively, before decreasing thereafter. Multiple regression analysis reveals that increases in uE/σY (resilience energy) are associated with decreases in DD1 and increases in DD2, whereas uF/σU (rupture energy) is associated with increases in DD1 alone. These findings support a model where age-related variations in tendon resilience and resistance to rupture can be directed by subtle changes in the bimodal distribution of Ds. PMID:22837169

UTILIZING RESULTS FROM INSAR TO DEVELOP SEISMIC LOCATION BENCHMARKS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SEISMIC SOURCE STUDIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M. BEGNAUD; ET AL

2000-09-01

Obtaining accurate seismic event locations is one of the most important goals for monitoring detonations of underground nuclear teats. This is a particular challenge at small magnitudes where the number of recording stations may be less than 20. Although many different procedures are being developed to improve seismic location, most procedures suffer from inadequate testing against accurate information about a seismic event. Events with well-defined attributes, such as latitude, longitude, depth and origin time, are commonly referred to as ground truth (GT). Ground truth comes in many forms and with many different levels of accuracy. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)more » can provide independent and accurate information (ground truth) regarding ground surface deformation and/or rupture. Relating surface deformation to seismic events is trivial when events are large and create a significant surface rupture, such as for the M{sub w} = 7.5 event that occurred in the remote northern region of the Tibetan plateau in 1997. The event, which was a vertical strike slip even appeared anomalous in nature due to the lack of large aftershocks and had an associated surface rupture of over 180 km that was identified and modeled using InSAR. The east-west orientation of the fault rupture provides excellent ground truth for latitude, but is of limited use for longitude. However, a secondary rupture occurred 50 km south of the main shock rupture trace that can provide ground truth with accuracy within 5 km. The smaller, 5-km-long secondary rupture presents a challenge for relating the deformation to a seismic event. The rupture is believed to have a thrust mechanism; the dip of the fimdt allows for some separation between the secondary rupture trace and its associated event epicenter, although not as much as is currently observed from catalog locations. Few events within the time period of the InSAR analysis are candidates for the secondary rupture. Of these, we have identified six possible secondary rupture events (mb range = 3.7-4.8, with two magnitudes not reported), based on synthetic tests and residual analysis. All of the candidate events are scattered about the main and secondary rupture. A Joint Hypocenter Determination (JHD) approach applied to the aftershocks using global picks was not able to identify the secondary event. We added regional data and used propagation path corrections to reduce scatter and remove the 20-km bias seen in the main shock location. A&r preliminary analysis using several different velocity models, none of the candidate events proved to relocate on the surface trace of the secondary rupture. However, one event (mb = not reported) moved from a starting distance of {approximately}106 km to a relocated distance of {approximately}28 km from the secondary rupture, the only candidate event to relocate in relative proximity to the secondary rupture.« less

Nondestructive Evaluation and Monitoring Results from COPV Accelerated Stress Rupture Testing, NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saulsberry Regor

2010-01-01

Develop and demonstrate NDE techniques for real-time characterization of CPVs and, where possible, identification of NDE capable of assessing stress rupture related strength degradation and/or making vessel life predictions (structural health monitoring or periodic inspection modes). Secondary: Provide the COPV user and materials community with quality carbon/epoxy (C/Ep) COPV stress rupture progression rate data. Aid in modeling, manufacturing, and application of COPVs for NASA spacecraft.

Dynamic rupture modeling of the transition from thrust to strike-slip motion in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Anderson, G.; Hudnut, K.W.

2004-01-01

We use three-dimensional dynamic (spontaneous) rupture models to investigate the nearly simultaneous ruptures of the Susitna Glacier thrust fault and the Denali strike-slip fault. With the 1957 Mw 8.3 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as the only other well-documented case of significant, nearly simultaneous rupture of both thrust and strike-slip faults, this feature of the 2002 Denali fault earthquake provides a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanisms responsible for development of these large, complex events. We find that the geometry of the faults and the orientation of the regional stress field caused slip on the Susitna Glacier fault to load the Denali fault. Several different stress orientations with oblique right-lateral motion on the Susitna Glacier fault replicate the triggering of rupture on the Denali fault about 10 sec after the rupture nucleates on the Susitna Glacier fault. However, generating slip directions compatible with measured surface offsets and kinematic source inversions requires perturbing the stress orientation from that determined with focal mechanisms of regional events. Adjusting the vertical component of the principal stress tensor for the regional stress field so that it is more consistent with a mixture of strike-slip and reverse faulting significantly improves the fit of the slip-rake angles to the data. Rotating the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction westward appears to improve the fit even further.

Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh

2018-05-01

A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.

In silico synchronization reveals regulators of nuclear ruptures in lamin A/C deficient model cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robijns, J.; Molenberghs, F.; Sieprath, T.; Corne, T. D. J.; Verschuuren, M.; de Vos, W. H.

2016-07-01

The nuclear lamina is a critical regulator of nuclear structure and function. Nuclei from laminopathy patient cells experience repetitive disruptions of the nuclear envelope, causing transient intermingling of nuclear and cytoplasmic components. The exact causes and consequences of these events are not fully understood, but their stochastic occurrence complicates in-depth analyses. To resolve this, we have established a method that enables quantitative investigation of spontaneous nuclear ruptures, based on co-expression of a firmly bound nuclear reference marker and a fluorescent protein that shuttles between the nucleus and cytoplasm during ruptures. Minimally invasive imaging of both reporters, combined with automated tracking and in silico synchronization of individual rupture events, allowed extracting information on rupture frequency and recovery kinetics. Using this approach, we found that rupture frequency correlates inversely with lamin A/C levels, and can be reduced in genome-edited LMNA knockout cells by blocking actomyosin contractility or inhibiting the acetyl-transferase protein NAT10. Nuclear signal recovery followed a kinetic that is co-determined by the severity of the rupture event, and could be prolonged by knockdown of the ESCRT-III complex component CHMP4B. In conclusion, our approach reveals regulators of nuclear rupture induction and repair, which may have critical roles in disease development.

Metrics for comparing dynamic earthquake rupture simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.

2014-01-01

Earthquakes are complex events that involve a myriad of interactions among multiple geologic features and processes. One of the tools that is available to assist with their study is computer simulation, particularly dynamic rupture simulation. A dynamic rupture simulation is a numerical model of the physical processes that occur during an earthquake. Starting with the fault geometry, friction constitutive law, initial stress conditions, and assumptions about the condition and response of the near‐fault rocks, a dynamic earthquake rupture simulation calculates the evolution of fault slip and stress over time as part of the elastodynamic numerical solution (Ⓔ see the simulation description in the electronic supplement to this article). The complexity of the computations in a dynamic rupture simulation make it challenging to verify that the computer code is operating as intended, because there are no exact analytic solutions against which these codes’ results can be directly compared. One approach for checking if dynamic rupture computer codes are working satisfactorily is to compare each code’s results with the results of other dynamic rupture codes running the same earthquake simulation benchmark. To perform such a comparison consistently, it is necessary to have quantitative metrics. In this paper, we present a new method for quantitatively comparing the results of dynamic earthquake rupture computer simulation codes.

Time/Temperature Dependent Tensile Strength of SiC and Al2O3-Based Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yun, Hee Mann; DiCarlo, James A.

1997-01-01

In order to understand and model the thermomechanical behavior of fiber-reinforced composites, stress-rupture, fast-fracture, and warm-up rupture studies were conducted on various advanced SiC and Al2O3-based fibers in the,temperature range from 20 to 1400 C in air as well as in inert environments. The measured stress-rupture, fast fracture, and warm-up rupture strengths were correlated into a single master time/temperature-dependent strength plot for each fiber type using thermal activation and slow crack growth theories. It is shown that these plots are useful for comparing and selecting fibers for CMC and MMC reinforcement and that, in comparison to stress rupture tests, the fast-fracture and warm-up tests can be used for rapid generation of these plots.

Infrasonic Observations of Ground Shaking along the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degroot-Hedlin, C. D.; Walker, K.

2010-12-01

The Mw 7.2 El Mayor earthquake in northeast Baja California generated seismic waves that were felt for up to 90 seconds throughout southern California and northern Baja. The locations of the epicenter, aftershocks, and surface rupture suggest that the rupture was not focused at one specific location, but initiated near El Mayor, Mexico and extended northwest for roughly 120 km through the U.S. border. We analyze infrasound and seismic data recorded by three arrays and show that the surface shaking in the vicinity of the rupture also generated infrasound that was detected at least 200 km away to the north and west of the epicentral region, despite stratospheric winds from the west that only favor eastward propagation. Frequency domain beamforming of infrasound array signals recorded by an array near San Diego (MRIAR) shows a time progression of signal back azimuth that spans the entire rupture length. Ray trace modeling using 4-D atmospheric velocity models suggests that the observed infrasound signals refracted in the thermosphere. The signals have frequencies from 1 to 12 Hz, which is rather high given the level of thermospheric attenuation predicted by traditional models. A secondary infrasound wavetrain that arrived at MRIAR before the epicentral infrasound appears to have originated from an infrasonic radiator south of the array that was excited by the passing surface waves.

Off-fault plasticity in three-dimensional dynamic rupture simulations using a modal Discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured meshes: Implementation, verification, and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, Stephanie; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Uphoff, Carsten

2018-05-01

The dynamics and potential size of earthquakes depend crucially on rupture transfers between adjacent fault segments. To accurately describe earthquake source dynamics, numerical models can account for realistic fault geometries and rheologies such as nonlinear inelastic processes off the slip interface. We present implementation, verification, and application of off-fault Drucker-Prager plasticity in the open source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org). SeisSol is based on an arbitrary high-order derivative modal Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) method using unstructured, tetrahedral meshes specifically suited for complex geometries. Two implementation approaches are detailed, modelling plastic failure either employing sub-elemental quadrature points or switching to nodal basis coefficients. At fine fault discretizations the nodal basis approach is up to 6 times more efficient in terms of computational costs while yielding comparable accuracy. Both methods are verified in community benchmark problems and by three dimensional numerical h- and p-refinement studies with heterogeneous initial stresses. We observe no spectral convergence for on-fault quantities with respect to a given reference solution, but rather discuss a limitation to low-order convergence for heterogeneous 3D dynamic rupture problems. For simulations including plasticity, a high fault resolution may be less crucial than commonly assumed, due to the regularization of peak slip rate and an increase of the minimum cohesive zone width. In large-scale dynamic rupture simulations based on the 1992 Landers earthquake, we observe high rupture complexity including reverse slip, direct branching, and dynamic triggering. The spatio-temporal distribution of rupture transfers are altered distinctively by plastic energy absorption, correlated with locations of geometrical fault complexity. Computational cost increases by 7% when accounting for off-fault plasticity in the demonstrating application. Our results imply that the combination of fully 3D dynamic modelling, complex fault geometries, and off-fault plastic yielding is important to realistically capture dynamic rupture transfers in natural fault systems.

Retrieving rupture history using waveform inversions in time sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, L.; Xu, C.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The rupture history of large earthquakes is generally regenerated using the waveform inversion through utilizing seismological waveform records. In the waveform inversion, based on the superposition principle, the rupture process is linearly parameterized. After discretizing the fault plane into sub-faults, the local source time function of each sub-fault is usually parameterized using the multi-time window method, e.g., mutual overlapped triangular functions. Then the forward waveform of each sub-fault is synthesized through convoluting the source time function with its Green function. According to the superposition principle, these forward waveforms generated from the fault plane are summarized in the recorded waveforms after aligning the arrival times. Then the slip history is retrieved using the waveform inversion method after the superposing of all forward waveforms for each correspond seismological waveform records. Apart from the isolation of these forward waveforms generated from each sub-fault, we also realize that these waveforms are gradually and sequentially superimposed in the recorded waveforms. Thus we proposed a idea that the rupture model is possibly detachable in sequent rupture times. According to the constrained waveform length method emphasized in our previous work, the length of inverted waveforms used in the waveform inversion is objectively constrained by the rupture velocity and rise time. And one essential prior condition is the predetermined fault plane that limits the duration of rupture time, which means the waveform inversion is restricted in a pre-set rupture duration time. Therefore, we proposed a strategy to inverse the rupture process sequentially using the progressively shift rupture times as the rupture front expanding in the fault plane. And we have designed a simulation inversion to test the feasibility of the method. Our test result shows the prospect of this idea that requiring furthermore investigation.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

Calculation of craters resulting from impact rupture of rock mass using pulse hydrodynamic problem formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorodilov, LV; Rasputina, TB

2018-03-01

A liquid–solid hydrodynamic model is used to determine shapes and sizes of craters generated by impact rupture of rocks. Near the impact location, rock is modeled by an ideal incompressible liquid, in the distance—by an absolute solid. The calculated data are compared with the experimental results obtained under impact treatment of marble by a wedge-shaped tool.

Statistical models for the distribution of modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture in lumber with implications for reliability calculations

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky

2017-01-01

It is common practice to assume that a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber properties. Verrill and co-workers demonstrated theoretically and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of visually graded or machine stress rated (MSR) lumber is not distributed as a Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR...

Studying Near-Trench Characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Megathrust Rupture Using Differential Multi-Beam Bathymetry before and after the Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, T.; Fujiwara, T.; Kodaira, S.; Wang, K.; He, J.

2014-12-01

Large coseismic motion (up to ~ 31 m) of seafloor GPS sites during the 2011 M 9 Tohoku earthquake suggests large rupture at shallow depths of the megathrust. However, compilation of all published rupture models, constrained by the near-field seafloor geodetic observation and also various other datasets, shows large uncertainties in the slip of the most near-trench (within ~ 50 km from the trench) part of the megathrust. Repeated multi-beam bathymetry surveys that cover the trench axis, carried out by Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, for the first time recorded coseismic deformation in a megathrust earthquake at the trench. In previous studies of the differential bathymetry (DB) before and after the earthquake to determine coseismic fault slip, only the rigid-body translation component of the upper plate deformation was considered. In this work, we construct Synthetic Differential Bathymetry (SDB) using an elastic deformation model and make comparisons with the observed DB. We use a 3-D elastic Finite Element model with actual fault geometry of the Japan trench subduction zone and allowing the rupture to breach the trench. The SDB can well predict short-wavelength variations in the observed DB. Our tests using different coseismic slip models show that the internal elastic deformation of the hanging wall plays an important role in generating DB. Comparing the SDB with the observed DB suggests that the largest slip is located within ~ 50 km from the trench. The SDB proves to be the most effective tool to evaluate the performance of different rupture models in predicting near-trench slip. Our SDB work will further explore the updip slip variation. The SDB may help to constrain the slip gradient in the updip direction and may help to determine whether the large shallow slip in the Tohoku earthquake plateaued at the trench or before reaching the trench. Resolving these issues will provide some of the key tests for various competing models that were proposed to explain the large shallow rupture in this event.

Software Toolbox Development for Rapid Earthquake Source Optimisation Combining InSAR Data and Seismic Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isken, Marius P.; Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Bathke, Hannes M.

2017-04-01

We present a modular open-source software framework (pyrocko, kite, grond; http://pyrocko.org) for rapid InSAR data post-processing and modelling of tectonic and volcanic displacement fields derived from satellite data. Our aim is to ease and streamline the joint optimisation of earthquake observations from InSAR and GPS data together with seismological waveforms for an improved estimation of the ruptures' parameters. Through this approach we can provide finite models of earthquake ruptures and therefore contribute to a timely and better understanding of earthquake kinematics. The new kite module enables a fast processing of unwrapped InSAR scenes for source modelling: the spatial sub-sampling and data error/noise estimation for the interferogram is evaluated automatically and interactively. The rupture's near-field surface displacement data are then combined with seismic far-field waveforms and jointly modelled using the pyrocko.gf framwork, which allows for fast forward modelling based on pre-calculated elastodynamic and elastostatic Green's functions. Lastly the grond module supplies a bootstrap-based probabilistic (Monte Carlo) joint optimisation to estimate the parameters and uncertainties of a finite-source earthquake rupture model. We describe the developed and applied methods as an effort to establish a semi-automatic processing and modelling chain. The framework is applied to Sentinel-1 data from the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence, where we present the earthquake mechanism and rupture model from which we derive regions of increased coulomb stress. The open source software framework is developed at GFZ Potsdam and at the University of Kiel, Germany, it is written in Python and C programming languages. The toolbox architecture is modular and independent, and can be utilized flexibly for a variety of geophysical problems. This work is conducted within the BridGeS project (http://www.bridges.uni-kiel.de) funded by the German Research Foundation DFG through an Emmy-Noether grant.

Application of Second-Moment Source Analysis to Three Problems in Earthquake Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2011-12-01

Though earthquake forecasting models have often represented seismic sources as space-time points (usually hypocenters), a more complete hazard analysis requires the consideration of finite-source effects, such as rupture extent, orientation, directivity, and stress drop. The most compact source representation that includes these effects is the finite moment tensor (FMT), which approximates the degree-two polynomial moments of the stress glut by its projection onto the seismic (degree-zero) moment tensor. This projection yields a scalar space-time source function whose degree-one moments define the centroid moment tensor (CMT) and whose degree-two moments define the FMT. We apply this finite-source parameterization to three forecasting problems. The first is the question of hypocenter bias: can we reject the null hypothesis that the conditional probability of hypocenter location is uniformly distributed over the rupture area? This hypothesis is currently used to specify rupture sets in the "extended" earthquake forecasts that drive simulation-based hazard models, such as CyberShake. Following McGuire et al. (2002), we test the hypothesis using the distribution of FMT directivity ratios calculated from a global data set of source slip inversions. The second is the question of source identification: given an observed FMT (and its errors), can we identify it with an FMT in the complete rupture set that represents an extended fault-based rupture forecast? Solving this problem will facilitate operational earthquake forecasting, which requires the rapid updating of earthquake triggering and clustering models. Our proposed method uses the second-order uncertainties as a norm on the FMT parameter space to identify the closest member of the hypothetical rupture set and to test whether this closest member is an adequate representation of the observed event. Finally, we address the aftershock excitation problem: given a mainshock, what is the spatial distribution of aftershock probabilities? The FMT representation allows us to generalize the models typically used for this purpose (e.g., marked point process models, such as ETAS), which will again be necessary in operational earthquake forecasting. To quantify aftershock probabilities, we compare mainshock FMTs with the first and second spatial moments of weighted aftershock hypocenters. We will describe applications of these results to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3, which is now under development by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.

The 1995 November 22, Mw 7.2 Gulf of Elat earthquake cycle revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Gidon; Funning, Gareth J.; Shamir, Gadi; Wright, Tim J.

2008-12-01

The 1995 November 22, Mw = 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake occurred along one of the left-stepping segments of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Gulf of Elat (Aqaba). It was the largest earthquake along the DST in at least 160 yr. The main shock was preceded by earthquake swarms north and south of its NE-striking rupture since the early 1980s, and was followed by about 6 months of intense aftershock activity, concentrated mainly northwest and southeast of the main rupture. In this study we re-analyse ERS-1 and ERS-2 InSAR data for the period spanning the main shock and 5 post-seismic years. Because the entire rupture was under the Gulf water, surface observations related to the earthquake are limited to distances greater than 5 km away from the rupture zone. Coseismic interferograms were produced for the earthquake +1 week, +4 months and +6 months. Non-linear inversions were carried out for fault geometry and linear inversions were made for slip distribution using an ascending-descending 2-frame data set. The moment calculated from our best-fitting model is in agreement with the seismological moment, but trade-offs exist among several fault parameters. The present model upgrades previous InSAR models of the Nuweiba earthquake, and differs from recent teleseismic waveform inversion results mainly in terms of slip magnitude and distribution. The moment released by post-seismic deformation in the period of 6 months to 2 yr after the Nuweiba earthquake is about 15 per cent of the coseismic moment release. Our models suggest that this deformation can be represented by slip along the lower part of the coseismic rupture. Localised deformation along the Gulf shores NW of the main rupture in the first 6 months after the earthquake is correlated with surface displacements along active Gulf-parallel normal faults and possibly with shallow M > 3.9, D < 6 km aftershocks. The geodetic moment calculated by modelling this deformation is more than an order of magnitude larger than expected for a single M ~ 4 aftershock, but could be a result of a sequence of aftershocks and/or aseismic slip. The major aftershocks and the slip along Gulf-parallel normal faulting NW of the main rupture are associated with positive Coulomb stress changes induced by the main event.

Pulse-like partial ruptures and high-frequency radiation at creeping-locked transition during megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Lapusta, Nadia; Jiang, Junle

2017-08-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the aging law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

Pulse-Like Partial Ruptures and High-Frequency Radiation at Creeping-Locked Transition during Megathrust Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, S. G. R. M.; Avouac, J. P.; Lapusta, N.; Jiang, J.

2017-12-01

Megathrust earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period and often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We show that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences. The fault is governed by standard laboratory-based rate-and-state friction with the ageing law and contains one homogenous velocity-weakening (VW) region embedded in a velocity-strengthening (VS) area. Our simulations incorporate inertial wave-mediated effects during seismic ruptures (they are thus fully dynamic) and account for all phases of the seismic cycle in a self-consistent way. Earthquakes nucleate at the edge of the VW area and partial ruptures tend to stay confined within this zone of higher prestress, producing pulse-like ruptures that propagate along strike. The amplitude of the high-frequency sources is enhanced in the zone of higher, heterogeneous stress at the edge of the VW area.

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along Dipping Faults, with a focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, K.; Moschetti, M. P.

2017-12-01

We study dynamic rupture and ground motion from dip-slip faults in regions that have high-seismic hazard, such as the Wasatch fault zone, Utah. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion along segments of this fault in the heavily populated regions near Salt Lake City but were restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). We seek to better understand the rupture process and assess broadband ground motions and variability from the Wasatch Fault Zone by extending deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies (up to 5 Hz). We perform simulations along a dipping normal fault (40 x 20 km along strike and width, respectively) with characteristics derived from geologic observations to generate a suite of ruptures > Mw 6.5. This approach utilizes dynamic simulations (fully physics-based models, where the initial stress drop and friction law are imposed) using a summation by parts (SBP) method. The simulations include rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) in addition to off-fault plasticity. Energy losses from heat and other mechanisms, modeled as anelastic attenuation, are also included, as well as free-surface topography, which can significantly affect ground motion patterns. We compare the effect of material structure and both rate and state and slip-weakening friction laws have on rupture propagation. The simulations show reduced slip and moment release in the near surface with the inclusion of plasticity, better agreeing with observations of shallow slip deficit. Long-wavelength fault geometry imparts a non-uniform stress distribution along both dip and strike, influencing the preferred rupture direction and hypocenter location, potentially important for seismic hazard estimation.

Near-Field Deformation Associated with the M6.0 South Napa Earthquake Surface Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, B. A.; Hudnut, K. W.; Glennie, C. L.; Ericksen, T.

2014-12-01

We characterize near-field deformation associated with the surface rupture of the M6.0 South Napa earthquake from repeat mobile laser scanning (MLS) surveys. Starting the day after the main shock, we operated, sometime simultaneously, short (~75 m range) and medium (~400m range) range laser scanners on a truck or backpack. We scanned most of the length of the principal and secondary surface ruptures at speeds less than 10 km/hr. Scanning occurred primarily in either suburban subdivisions or cultivated vineyards of varying varietals with differing leaf patterns and stages of maturity. Spot-spacing is dense enough (100s of points/m^2) to permit creation of 10-25cm digital elevation models of much of the surface rupture. Scanned features of the right-lateral rupture include classic mole tracks through a variety of soil types, en echelon cracks, offset vine rows, and myriad types of pavement-related deformation. We estimate coseismic surface displacements ranging from 5 to 45 cm by examining offset cultural features and vine rows and by comparing the MLS data with preexisting airborne laser scans from 2003 using point-cloud and solid-modeling methodologies. Additionally, we conducted repeat MLS scans to measure the magnitude and spatial variation of fault afterslip, exceeding 20 cm in some places, particularly in the southern portion of the rupture zone. We anticipate these data sets, in conjunction with independently collected ground-based alinement arrays and space-based geodetic data will contribute significant insight into topics of current debate including assessing the most appropriate material models for shallow fault zones and how shallow and deeper fault slip relate to one another.

Analysis of Fan Waves in a Laboratory Model Simulating the Propagation of Shear Ruptures in Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasov, B. G.; Sadovskii, V. M.; Sadovskaya, O. V.

2017-12-01

The fan-shaped mechanism of rotational motion transmission in a system of elastically bonded slabs on flat surface, simulating the propagation of shear ruptures in super brittle rocks, is analyzed. Such ruptures appear in the Earth's crust at seismogenic depths. They propagate due to the nucleation of oblique tensile microcracks, leading to the formation of a fan domino-structure in the rupture head. A laboratory physical model was created which demonstrates the process of fan-structure wave propagation. Equations of the dynamics of rotational motion of slabs as a mechanical system with a finite number of degrees of freedom are obtained. Based on the Merson method of solving the Cauchy problem for systems of ordinary differential equations, the computational algorithm taking into account contact interaction of slabs is developed. Within the framework of a simplified mathematical model of dynamic behavior of a fan-shaped system in the approximation of a continuous medium, the approximate estimates of the length of a fan depending on the velocity of its motion are obtained. It is shown that in the absence of friction a fan can move with any velocity that does not exceed the critical value, which depends on the size, the moment of inertia of slabs, the initial angle and the elasticity coefficient of bonds. In the presence of friction a fan stops. On the basis of discrete and continuous models, the main qualitative features of the behavior of a fan-structure moving under the action of applied tangential forces, whose values in a laboratory physical model are regulated by a change in the inclination angle of the rupture plane, are analyzed. Comparison of computations and laboratory measurements and observations shows good correspondence between the results.

Using finite-difference waveform modeling to better understand rupture kinematics and path effects in ground motion modeling: an induced seismicity case study at the Groningen Gas field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zurek, B.; Burnett, W. A.; deMartin, B.

2017-12-01

Ground motion models (GMMs) have historically been used as input in the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and as an engineering tool to assess risk in building design. Generally these equations are developed from empirical analysis of observations that come from fairly complete catalogs of seismic events. One of the challenges when doing a PSHA analysis in a region where earthquakes are anthropogenically induced is that the catalog of observations is not complete enough to come up with a set of equations to cover all expected outcomes. For example, PSHA analysis at the Groningen gas field, an area of known induced seismicity, requires estimates of ground motions from tremors up to a maximum magnitude of 6.5 ML. Of the roughly 1300 recordable earthquakes the maximum observed magnitude to date has been 3.6ML. This paper is part of a broader study where we use a deterministic finite-difference wave-form modeling tool to compliment the traditional development of GMMs. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of the GMM's to uncertainty in the rupture process and how this scales to larger magnitude events that have not been observed. A kinematic fault rupture model is introduced to our waveform simulations to test the sensitivity of the GMMs to variability in the fault rupture process that is physically consistent with observations. These tests will aid in constraining the degree of variability in modeled ground motions due to a realistic range of fault parameters and properties. From this study it is our conclusion that in order to properly capture the uncertainty of the GMMs with magnitude up-scaling one needs to address the impact of uncertainty in the near field (<10km) imposed by the lack of constraint on the finite rupture model. By quantifying the uncertainty back to physical principles it is our belief that it can be better constrained and thus reduce exposure to risk. Further, by investigating and constraining the range of fault rupture scenarios and earthquake magnitudes on ground motion models, hazard and risk analysis in regions with incomplete earthquake catalogs, such as the Groningen gas field, can be better understood.

Developing Stochastic Models as Inputs for High-Frequency Ground Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savran, William Harvey

High-frequency ( 10 Hz) deterministic ground motion simulations are challenged by our understanding of the small-scale structure of the earth's crust and the rupture process during an earthquake. We will likely never obtain deterministic models that can accurately describe these processes down to the meter scale length required for broadband wave propagation. Instead, we can attempt to explain the behavior, in a statistical sense, by including stochastic models defined by correlations observed in the natural earth and through physics based simulations of the earthquake rupture process. Toward this goal, we develop stochastic models to address both of the primary considerations for deterministic ground motion simulations: namely, the description of the material properties in the crust, and broadband earthquake source descriptions. Using borehole sonic log data recorded in Los Angeles basin, we estimate the spatial correlation structure of the small-scale fluctuations in P-wave velocities by determining the best-fitting parameters of a von Karman correlation function. We find that Hurst exponents, nu, between 0.0-0.2, vertical correlation lengths, az, of 15-150m, an standard deviation, sigma of about 5% characterize the variability in the borehole data. Usin these parameters, we generated a stochastic model of velocity and density perturbations and combined with leading seismic velocity models to perform a validation exercise for the 2008, Chino Hills, CA using heterogeneous media. We find that models of velocity and density perturbations can have significant effects on the wavefield at frequencies as low as 0.3 Hz, with ensemble median values of various ground motion metrics varying up to +/-50%, at certain stations, compared to those computed solely from the CVM. Finally, we develop a kinematic rupture generator based on dynamic rupture simulations on geometrically complex faults. We analyze 100 dynamic rupture simulations on strike-slip faults ranging from Mw 6.4-7.2. We find that our dynamic simulations follow empirical scaling relationships for inter-plate strike-slip events, and provide source spectra comparable with an o -2 model. Our rupture generator reproduces GMPE medians and intra-event standard deviations spectral accelerations for an ensemble of 10 Hz fully-deterministic ground motion simulations, as compared to NGA West2 GMPE relationships up to 0.2 seconds.

Creep and creep rupture of laminated graphite/epoxy composites. Ph.D. Thesis. Final Report, 1 Oct. 1979 - 30 Sep. 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dillard, D. A.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1981-01-01

An incremental numerical procedure based on lamination theory is developed to predict creep and creep rupture of general laminates. Existing unidirectional creep compliance and delayed failure data is used to develop analytical models for lamina response. The compliance model is based on a procedure proposed by Findley which incorporates the power law for creep into a nonlinear constitutive relationship. The matrix octahedral shear stress is assumed to control the stress interaction effect. A modified superposition principle is used to account for the varying stress level effect on the creep strain. The lamina failure model is based on a modification of the Tsai-Hill theory which includes the time dependent creep rupture strength. A linear cumulative damage law is used to monitor the remaining lifetime in each ply.

Slow crack growth: Models and experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santucci, S.; Vanel, L.; Ciliberto, S.

2007-07-01

The properties of slow crack growth in brittle materials are analyzed both theoretically and experimentally. We propose a model based on a thermally activated rupture process. Considering a 2D spring network submitted to an external load and to thermal noise, we show that a preexisting crack in the network may slowly grow because of stress fluctuations. An analytical solution is found for the evolution of the crack length as a function of time, the time to rupture and the statistics of the crack jumps. These theoretical predictions are verified by studying experimentally the subcritical growth of a single crack in thin sheets of paper. A good agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results is found. In particular, our model suggests that the statistical stress fluctuations trigger rupture events at a nanometric scale corresponding to the diameter of cellulose microfibrils.

An integrated analysis on source parameters, seismogenic structure and seismic hazard of the 2014 Ms 6.3 Kangding earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.

2016-12-01

On November 22, 2014, the Ms6.3 Kangding earthquake ended 30 years of history of no strong earthquake at the Xianshuihe fault zone. The focal mechanism and centroid depth of the Kangding earthquake are inverted by teleseismic waveforms and regional seismograms with CAP method. The result shows that the two nodal planes of focal mechanism are 235°/82°/-173° and 144°/83°/-8° respectively, the latter nodal plane should be the ruptured fault plane with a focal depth of 9 km. The rupture process model of the Kangding earthquake is obtained by joint inversion of teleseismic data and regional seismograms. The Kangding earthquake is a bilateral earthquake, and the major rupture zone is within a depth range of 5-15 km, spanning 10 km and 12 km along dip and strike directions, and maximum slip is about 0.5m. Most seismic moment was released during the first 5 s and the magnitude is Mw6.01, smaller than the model determined by InSAR data. The discrepancy between co-seismic rupture models of the Kangding and its Ms 5.8 aftershock and the InSAR model implies significant afterslip deformation occurred in the two weeks after the mainshock. The afterslip released energy equals to an Mw5.9 earthquake and mainly concentrates in the northwest side and the shallower side to the rupture zone. The CFS accumulation near the epicenter of the 2014 Kangding earthquake is increased by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, implying that the Kangding earthquake could be triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake. The CFS at the northwest section of the seismic gap along the Kangding-daofu segment is increased by the Kanding earthquake, and the rupture slip of the Kangding earthquake sequence is too small to release the accumulated strain in the seismic gap. Consequently, the northwest section of the Kangding-daofu seismic gap is under high seismic hazard in the future.

Shallow megathrust earthquake ruptures betrayed by their outer-trench aftershocks signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sladen, Anthony; Trevisan, Jenny

2018-02-01

For some megathrust earthquakes, the rupture extends to the solid Earth's surface, at the ocean floor. This unexpected behaviour holds strong implications for the tsunami potential of subduction zones and for the physical conditions governing earthquakes, but such ruptures occur in underwater areas which are hard to observe, even with current instrumentation and imaging techniques. Here, we evidence that aftershocks occurring ocean-ward from the trench are conditioned by near-surface rupture of the megathrust fault. Comparison to well constrained earthquake slip models further reveals that for each event the number of aftershocks is proportional to the amount of shallow slip, a link likely related to static stress transfer. Hence, the spatial distribution of these specific aftershock sequences could provide independent constrains on the coseismic shallow slip of future events. It also offers the prospect to be able to reassess the rupture of many large subduction earthquakes back to the beginning of the instrumental era.

Bond rupture between colloidal particles with a depletion interaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitaker, Kathryn A.; Furst, Eric M., E-mail: furst@udel.edu

The force required to break the bonds of a depletion gel is measured by dynamically loading pairs of colloidal particles suspended in a solution of a nonadsorbing polymer. Sterically stabilized poly(methyl methacrylate) colloids that are 2.7 μm diameter are brought into contact in a solvent mixture of cyclohexane-cyclohexyl bromide and polystyrene polymer depletant. The particle pairs are subject to a tensile load at a constant loading rate over many approach-retraction cycles. The stochastic nature of the thermal rupture events results in a distribution of bond rupture forces with an average magnitude and variance that increases with increasing depletant concentration. The measuredmore » force distribution is described by the flux of particle pairs sampling the energy barrier of the bond interaction potential based on the Asakura–Oosawa depletion model. A transition state model demonstrates the significance of lubrication hydrodynamic interactions and the effect of the applied loading rate on the rupture force of bonds in a depletion gel.« less

Analysis of the Effects of Normal Walking on Ankle Joint Contact Characteristics After Acute Inversion Ankle Sprain.

PubMed

Bae, Ji Yong; Park, Kyung Soon; Seon, Jong Keun; Jeon, Insu

2015-12-01

To show the causal relationship between normal walking after various lateral ankle ligament (LAL) injuries caused by acute inversion ankle sprains and alterations in ankle joint contact characteristics, finite element simulations of normal walking were carried out using an intact ankle joint model and LAL injury models. A walking experiment using a volunteer with a normal ankle joint was performed to obtain the boundary conditions for the simulations and to support the appropriateness of the simulation results. Contact pressure and strain on the talus articular cartilage and anteroposterior and mediolateral translations of the talus were calculated. Ankles with ruptured anterior talofibular ligaments (ATFLs) had a higher likelihood of experiencing increased ankle joint contact pressures, strains and translations than ATFL-deficient ankles. In particular, ankles with ruptured ATFL + calcaneofibular ligaments and all ruptured ankles had a similar likelihood as the ATFL-ruptured ankles. The push off stance phase was the most likely situation for increased ankle joint contact pressures, strains and translations in LAL-injured ankles.

Loss of feed flow, steam generator tube rupture and steam line break thermohydraulic experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendler, O J; Takeuchi, K; Young, M Y

1986-10-01

The Westinghouse Model Boiler No. 2 (MB-2) steam generator test model at the Engineering Test Facility in Tampa, Florida, was reinstrumented and modified for performing a series of tests simulating steam generator accident transients. The transients simulated were: loss of feed flow, steam generator tube rupture, and steam line break events. This document presents a description of (1) the model boiler and the associated test facility, (2) the tests performed, and (3) the analyses of the test results.

Modeling potential tsunami sources for deposits near Unalaska Island, Aleutian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Selle, S.; Gelfenbaum, G. R.

2013-12-01

In regions with little seismic data and short historical records of earthquakes, we can use preserved tsunami deposits and tsunami modeling to infer if, when and where tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred. The Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone in the region offshore of Unalaska Island is one such region where the historical and paleo-seismicity is poorly understood. This section of the subduction zone is not thought to have ruptured historically in a large earthquake, leading some to designate the region as a seismic gap. By modeling various historical and synthetic earthquake sources, we investigate whether or not tsunamis that left deposits near Unalaska Island were generated by earthquakes rupturing through Unalaska Gap. Preliminary field investigations near the eastern end of Unalaska Island have identified paleotsunami deposits well above sea level, suggesting that multiple tsunamis in the last 5,000 years have flooded low-lying areas over 1 km inland. Other indicators of tsunami inundation, such as a breached cobble beach berm and driftwood logs stranded far inland, were tentatively attributed to the March 9, 1957 tsunami, which had reported runup of 13 to 22 meters on Umnak and Unimak Islands, to the west and east of Unalaska. In order to determine if tsunami inundation could have reached the runup markers observed on Unalaska, we modeled the 1957 tsunami using GeoCLAW, a numerical model that simulates tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation. The published rupture orientation and slip distribution for the MW 8.6, 1957 earthquake (Johnson et al., 1994) was used as the tsunami source, which delineates a 1200 km long rupture zone along the Aleutian trench from Delarof Island to Unimak Island. Model results indicate that runup and inundation from this particular source are too low to account for the runup markers observed in the field, because slip is concentrated in the western half of the rupture zone, far from Unalaska. To ascertain if any realistic, earthquake-generated tsunami could account for the observed runup, we modeled tsunami inundation from synthetic MW 9.2 earthquakes rupturing along the trench between Atka and Unimak Islands, which indicate that the deposit runup observed on Unalaska is possible from a source of this size and orientation. Further modeling efforts will examine the April 1, 1946 Aleutian tsunami, as well as other synthetic tsunamigenic earthquake sources of varying size and location, which may provide insight into the rupture history of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone, especially in combination with more data from paleotsunami deposits. Johnson, Jean M., Tanioka, Yuichiro, Ruff, Larry J., Satake, Kenji, Kanamori, Hiroo, Sykes, Lynn R. "The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 142.1 (1994): 3-28.

Impact from Magnitude-Rupture Length Uncertainty on Seismic Hazard and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Kane, D. L.

2015-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments seismic sources are typically divided into two groups: fault sources (to model known faults) and background sources (to model unknown faults). In areas like the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii the hazard and risk is driven primarily by background sources. Background sources can be modeled as areas, points or pseudo-faults. When background sources are modeled as pseudo-faults, magnitude-length or magnitude-area scaling relationships are required to construct these pseudo-faults. However the uncertainty associated with these relationships is often ignored or discarded in hazard and risk models, particularly when faults sources are the dominant contributor. Conversely, in areas modeled only with background sources these uncertainties are much more significant. In this study we test the impact of using various relationships and the resulting epistemic uncertainties on the seismic hazard and risk in the Central and Eastern United States and Hawaii. It is common to use only one magnitude length relationship when calculating hazard. However, Stirling et al. (2013) showed that for a given suite of magnitude-rupture length relationships the variability can be quite large. The 2014 US National Seismic Hazard Maps (Petersen et al., 2014) used one magnitude-rupture length relationship (Somerville, et al., 2001) in the Central and Eastern United States, and did not consider variability in the seismogenic rupture plane width. Here we use a suite of metrics to compare the USGS approach with these variable uncertainty models to assess 1) the impact on hazard and risk and 2) the epistemic uncertainty associated with choice of relationship. In areas where the seismic hazard is dominated by larger crustal faults (e.g. New Madrid) the choice of magnitude-rupture length relationship has little impact on the hazard or risk. However away from these regions, the choice of relationship is more significant and may approach the size of the uncertainty associated with the ground motion prediction equation suite.

A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.

2017-01-01

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as will any subsequent version or competing model, potential usefulness needs to be considered in the context of actual applications.

Computational Failure Modeling of Lower Extremities

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

bone fracture, ligament tear, and muscle rupture . While these injuries may seem well-defined through medical imaging, the process of injury and the...to vehicles from improvised explosives cause severe injuries to the lower extremities, in- cluding bone fracture, ligament tear, and muscle rupture ...modeling offers a powerful tool to explore the insult-to-injury process with high-resolution. When studying a complex dynamic process such as this, it is

Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heaton, T.H.

1990-01-01

Dislocation time histories of models derived from waveforms of seven earthquakes are discussed. In each model, dislocation rise times (the duration of slip for a given point on the fault) are found to be short compared to the overall duration of the earthquake (??? 10%). However, in many crack-like numerical models of dynamic rupture, the slip duration at a given point is comparable to the overall duration of the rupture; i.e. slip at a given point continues until information is received that the rupture has stopped propagating. Alternative explanations for the discrepancy between the short slip durations used to model waveforms and the long slip durations inferred from dynamic crack models are: (1) the dislocation models are unable to resolve the relatively slow parts of earthquake slip and have seriously underestimated the dislocations for these earthquakes; (2) earthquakes are composed of a sequence of small-dimension (short duration) events that are separated by locked regions (barriers); (3) rupture occurs in a narrow self-healing pulse of slip that travels along the fault surface. Evidence is discussed that suggests that slip durations are indeed short and that the self-healing slip-pulse model is the most appropriate explanation. A qualitative model is presented that produces self-healing slip pulses. The key feature of the model is the assumption that friction on the fault surface is inversely related to the local slip velocity. The model has the following features: high static strength of materials (kilobar range), low static stress drops (in the range of tens of bars), and relatively low frictional stress during slip (less than several hundreds of bars). It is suggested that the reason that the average dislocation scales with fault length is because large-amplitude slip pulses are difficult to stop and hence tend to propagate large distances. This model may explain why seismicity and ambient stress are low along fault segments that have experienced large earthquakes. It also qualitatively explains why the recurrence time for large earthquakes may be irregular. ?? 1990.

Investigating the rupture direction of induced earthquakes in the Central US using empirical Green's functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, S. K. Y.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

A clear understanding of the source physics of induced seismicity is the key to effective seismic hazard mitigation. In particular, resolving their rupture processes can shed lights on the stress state prior to the main shock, as well as ground motion response. Recent numerical models suggest that, compared to their tectonic counterpart, induced earthquake rupture is more prone to propagate unilaterally toward the injection well where fluid pressure is high. However, this is also dependent on the location of the injection relative to the fault and yet to be compared with field data. In this study, we utilize the rich pool of seismic data in the central US to constrain the rupture processes of major induced earthquakes. By implementing a forward-modeling method, we take smaller earthquake recordings as empirical Green's functions (eGf) to simulate the rupture direction of the beginning motion generated by large events. One advantage of the empirical approach is to bypass the fundamental difficulty in resolving path and site effects. We selected eGf events that are close to the target events both in space and time. For example, we use a Mw 3.6 aftershock approximately 3 km from the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake in Prague, OK as its eGf event. Preliminary results indicate a southwest rupture for the Prague main shock, which possibly implies a higher fluid pressure concentration on the northeast end of the fault prior to the rupture. We will present further results on other Mw > 4.5 earthquakes in the States of Oklahoma and Kansas. With additional seismic stations installed in the past few years, events such as the 2014 Mw 4.9 Milan earthquake and the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake are potential candidates with useful eGfs, as they both have good data coverage and a substantial number of aftershocks nearby. We will discuss the implication of our findings for the causative relationships between the injection operations and the induced rupture process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diansari, Angga Vertika, E-mail: anggav.bmkg@gmail.com; Purwana, Ibnu; Subakti, Hendri

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e.more » Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.« less

Incidence of breast implant rupture in a 12-year retrospective cohort: Evidence of quality discrepancy depending on the range.

PubMed

Seigle-Murandi, Frédéric; Lefebvre, François; Bruant-Rodier, Catherine; Bodin, Frédéric

2017-01-01

The majority of studies assessing the rupture rate of breast implants were performed by the breast implant manufacturing industry with questionable independence. After repetitive removals of ruptured implants from the same model, our team decided to assess the rupture rate and the estimated risk thereof for most of the silicone gel-filled implants we have used since they regained market approval in France in 2001. Our study is a retrospective cohort of 809 patients operated in our University Hospital from 2001 to 2013 for cosmetic or reconstructive goals. We could track 1561 implants, 90% of them from the same manufacturer, Allergan (Irvine, CA, USA). For each of those, we gathered their exact reference, date of implantation, surgical approach, status, last follow-up visit or the eventual date, and cause of removal. Of 225 explanted devices, only 27 were ruptured, all from the Allergan brand. Risks of removal for rupture were estimated: 0.5% at 1000 days, 6% at 2000 days, and 14% at 3000 days. Risks were significantly different between the models from this same manufacturer. One of the range of macro-textured round implants showed risks of removal for rupture of 33% at 3000 days compared to 6% for the anatomically shaped range. These results suggest a qualitative discrepancy among the different ranges of breast implants of a single manufacturer within the same timeframe of implantation. To determine the in vivo lifespan of the implants that we use more precisely and sooner, we suggest that each removed implant should be analyzed for wear and tear, independently from the industry. Copyright © 2016 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A synthetic GMPE based on deterministic simulated ground motion data obtained from dynamic rupture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, L. A.; Baumann, C.; Cauzzi, C.

2013-12-01

Empirical ground motion prediction in the very near-field and for large magnitudes is often based on extrapolation of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) outside the range where they are well constrained by recorded data. With empirical GMPEs it is also difficult to capture source-dominated ground motion patterns, such as the effects of velocity pulses induced by subshear and supershear rupture directivity, buried and surface-rupturing, hanging-wall and foot-wall, weak shallow layers, complex geometry faults and stress drop. A way to cope at least in part with these shortcomings is to augment the calibration datasets with synthetic ground motions. To this aim, physics-based dynamic rupture models - where the physical bases involved in the fault rupture are explicitly considered - appear to be a suitable approach to produce synthetic ground motions. In this contribution, we first perform an assessment of a database of synthetic ground motions generated by a suite of dynamic rupture simulations to verify compatibility of the peak ground amplitudes with current GMPEs. The synthetic data-set is composed by 360 earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes in the range of 5.5-7, for three mechanisms of faulting (reverse, normal and strike-slip) and for both buried faults and surface rupturing faults. Second, we parameterise the synthetic dataset through a GMPE. For this purpose, we identify the basic functional forms by analyzing the variation of the synthetic peak ground motions and spectral ordinates as a function of different explanatory variables related to the earthquake source characteristics, in order to account for some of the source effects listed above. We argue that this study provides basic guidelines for the developments of future GMPEs including data from physics-based numerical simulations.

Insight into the rupture process of a rare tsunami earthquake from near-field high-rate GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macpherson, K. A.; Hill, E. M.; Elosegui, P.; Banerjee, P.; Sieh, K. E.

2011-12-01

We investigated the rupture duration and velocity of the October 25, 2010 Mentawai earthquake by examining high-rate GPS displacement data. This Mw=7.8 earthquake appears to have ruptured either an up-dip part of the Sumatran megathrust or a fore-arc splay fault, and produced tsunami run-ups on nearby islands that were out of proportion with its magnitude. It has been described as a so-called "slow tsunami earthquake", characterised by a dearth of high-frequency signal and long rupture duration in low-strength, near-surface media. The event was recorded by the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), a network of high-rate (1 sec) GPS sensors located on the nearby islands of the Sumatran fore-arc. For this study, the 1 sec time series from 8 SuGAr stations were selected for analysis due to their proximity to the source and high-quality recordings of both static displacements and dynamic waveforms induced by surface waves. The stations are located at epicentral distances of between 50 and 210 km, providing a unique opportunity to observe the dynamic source processes of a tsunami earthquake from near-source, high-rate GPS. We estimated the rupture duration and velocity by simulating the rupture using the spectral finite-element method SPECFEM and comparing the synthetic time series to the observed surface waves. A slip model from a previous study, derived from the inversion of GPS static offsets and tsunami data, and the CRUST2.0 3D velocity model were used as inputs for the simulations. Rupture duration and velocity were varied for a suite of simulations in order to determine the parameters that produce the best-fitting waveforms.

A Composite Source Model With Fractal Subevent Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burjanek, J.; Zahradnik, J.

A composite source model, incorporating different sized subevents, provides a pos- sible description of complex rupture processes during earthquakes. The number of subevents with characteristic dimension greater than R is proportional to R-2. The subevents do not overlap with each other, and the sum of their areas equals to the area of the target event (e.g. mainshock) . The subevents are distributed randomly over the fault. Each subevent is modeled as a finite source, using kinematic approach (radial rupture propagation, constant rupture velocity, boxcar slip-velocity function, with constant rise time on the subevent). The final slip at each subevent is related to its characteristic dimension, using constant stress-drop scaling. Variation of rise time with subevent size is a free parameter of modeling. The nucleation point of each subevent is taken as the point closest to mainshock hypocentre. The synthetic Green's functions are calculated by the discrete-wavenumber method in a 1D horizontally lay- ered crustal model in a relatively coarse grid of points covering the fault plane. The Green's functions needed for the kinematic model in a fine grid are obtained by cu- bic spline interpolation. As different frequencies may be efficiently calculated with different sampling, the interpolation simplifies and speeds-up the procedure signifi- cantly. The composite source model described above allows interpretation in terms of a kinematic model with non-uniform final slip and rupture velocity spatial distribu- tions. The 1994 Northridge earthquake (Mw = 6.7) is used as a validation event. The strong-ground motion modeling of the 1999 Athens earthquake (Mw = 5.9) is also performed.

Toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions modeling for pressurized liquefied gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britter, Rex; Weil, Jeffrey; Leung, Joseph; Hanna, Steven

2011-01-01

The objective of this article is to report current toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions formulas appropriate for use in atmospheric comprehensive risk assessment models so as to represent state-of-the-art knowledge. The focus is on high-priority scenarios, including two-phase releases of pressurized liquefied gases such as chlorine from rail cars. The total mass released and the release duration are major parameters, as well as the velocity, thermodynamic state, and amount and droplet sizes of imbedded aerosols of the material at the exit of the rupture, which are required as inputs to the subsequent jet and dispersion modeling. Because of the many possible release scenarios that could develop, a suite of model equations has been described. These allow for gas, two-phase or liquid storage and release through ruptures of various types including sharp-edged and "pipe-like" ruptures. Model equations for jet depressurization and phase change due to flashing are available. Consideration of the importance of vessel response to a rupture is introduced. The breakup of the jet into fine droplets and their subsequent suspension and evaporation, or rainout is still a significant uncertainty in the overall modeling process. The recommended models are evaluated with data from various TIC field experiments, in particular recent experiments with pressurized liquefied gases. It is found that there is typically a factor of two error in models compared with research-grade observations of mass flow rates. However, biases are present in models' estimates of the droplet size distributions resulting from flashing releases.

“All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.

2015-01-01

Building a new model, especially one used for policy purposes, takes considerable time, effort, and resources. In justifying such expenditures, one inevitably spends a lot of time denigrating previous models. For example, in pitching the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), criticisms of the previous model included fault‐segmentation assumptions and the lack of multifault ruptures. In the context of including spatiotemporal clustering for operational earthquake forecasting (e.g., Jordan et al., 2011), another criticism has been that previous candidate models not only ignore elastic rebound but also produce results that are antithetical to that theory. For instance, the short‐term earthquake probabilities model (Gerstenberger et al., 2005), which provided California aftershock hazard maps at the U.S. Geological Survey web site between 2005 and 2010, implies that the time of highest likelihood for any rupture will be the moment after it occurs, even for a big one on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations imply that excluding elastic rebound in such models also produces unrealistic triggering statistics (Field, 2012).

Source model of an earthquake doublet that occurred in a pull-apart basin along the Sumatran fault, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, M.; Kumagai, H.; Toda, S.; Ando, R.; Yamashina, T.; Inoue, H.; Sunarjo

2010-04-01

On 2007 March 6, an earthquake doublet occurred along the Sumatran fault, Indonesia. The epicentres were located near Padang Panjang, central Sumatra, Indonesia. The first earthquake, with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.4, occurred at 03:49 UTC and was followed two hours later (05:49 UTC) by an earthquake of similar size (Mw = 6.3). We studied the earthquake doublet by a waveform inversion analysis using data from a broadband seismograph network in Indonesia (JISNET). The focal mechanisms of the two earthquakes indicate almost identical right-lateral strike-slip faults, consistent with the geometry of the Sumatran fault. Both earthquakes nucleated below the northern end of Lake Singkarak, which is in a pull-apart basin between the Sumani and Sianok segments of the Sumatran fault system, but the earthquakes ruptured different fault segments. The first earthquake occurred along the southern Sumani segment and its rupture propagated southeastward, whereas the second one ruptured the northern Sianok segment northwestward. Along these fault segments, earthquake doublets, in which the two adjacent fault segments rupture one after the other, have occurred repeatedly. We investigated the state of stress at a segment boundary of a fault system based on the Coulomb stress changes. The stress on faults increases during interseismic periods and is released by faulting. At a segment boundary, on the other hand, the stress increases both interseismically and coseismically, and may not be released unless new fractures are created. Accordingly, ruptures may tend to initiate at a pull-apart basin. When an earthquake occurs on one of the fault segments, the stress increases coseismically around the basin. The stress changes caused by that earthquake may trigger a rupture on the other segment after a short time interval. We also examined the mechanism of the delayed rupture based on a theory of a fluid-saturated poroelastic medium and dynamic rupture simulations incorporating a rheological velocity hardening effect. These models of the delayed rupture can qualitatively explain the observations, but further studies, especially based on the rheological effect, are required for quantitative studies.

Intermediate Temperature Stress Rupture of Woven SiC Fiber, BN Interphase, SiC Matrix Composites in Air

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morscher, Gregory N.; Levine, Stanley (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Tensile stress-rupture experiments were performed on woven Hi-Nicalon reinforced SiC matrix composites with BN interphases in air. Modal acoustic emission (AE) was used to monitor the damage accumulation in the composites during the tests and microstructural analysis was performed to determine the amount of matrix cracking that occurred for each sample. Fiber fractograph), was also performed for individual fiber failures at the specimen fracture surface to determine the strengths at which fibers failed. The rupture strengths were significantly worse than what would have been expected front the inherent degradation of the fibers themselves when subjected to similar rupture conditions. At higher applied stresses the rate of rupture "?as larger than at lower applied stresses. It was observed that the change in rupture rate corresponded to the onset of through-thickness cracking in the composites themselves. The primary cause of the sen,ere degradation was the ease with which fibers would bond to one another at their closest separation distances, less than 100 nanometers, when exposed to the environment. The near fiber-to-fiber contact in the woven tows enabled premature fiber failure over large areas of matrix cracks due to the stress-concentrations created b), fibers bonded to one another after one or a few fibers fail. i.e. the loss of global load sharing. An@, improvement in fiber-to-fiber separation of this composite system should result in improved stress- rupture properties. A model was den,eloped in order to predict the rupture life-time for these composites based on the probabilistic nature of indin,idual fiber failure at temperature. the matrix cracking state during the rupture test, and the rate of oxidation into a matrix crack. Also incorporated into the model were estimates of the stress-concentration that would occur between the outer rim of fibers in a load-bearing bundle and the unbridged region of a matrix crack after Xia et al. For the lower stresses, this source of stress-concentration was the likely cause for initial fiber failure that would trigger catastrophic failure of the composite.

Near-Source Shaking and Dynamic Rupture in Plastic Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.; Mai, P. M.; Dalguer, L. A.; Ampuero, J. P.

2012-12-01

Recent well recorded earthquakes show a high degree of complexity at the source level that severely affects the resulting ground motion in near and far-field seismic data. In our study, we focus on investigating source-dominated near-field ground motion features from numerical dynamic rupture simulations in an elasto-visco-plastic bulk. Our aim is to contribute to a more direct connection from theoretical and computational results to field and seismological observations. Previous work showed that a diversity of rupture styles emerges from simulations on faults governed by velocity-and-state-dependent friction with rapid velocity-weakening at high slip rate. For instance, growing pulses lead to re-activation of slip due to gradual stress build-up near the hypocenter, as inferred in some source studies of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Moreover, off-fault energy dissipation implied physical limits on extreme ground motion by limiting peak slip rate and rupture velocity. We investigate characteristic features in near-field strong ground motion generated by dynamic in-plane rupture simulations. We present effects of plasticity on source process signatures, off-fault damage patterns and ground shaking. Independent of rupture style, asymmetric damage patterns across the fault are produced that contribute to the total seismic moment, and even dominantly at high angles between the fault and the maximum principal background stress. The off-fault plastic strain fields induced by transitions between rupture styles reveal characteristic signatures of the mechanical source processes during the transition. Comparing different rupture styles in elastic and elasto-visco-plastic media to identify signatures of off-fault plasticity, we find varying degrees of alteration of near-field radiation due to plastic energy dissipation. Subshear pulses suffer more peak particle velocity reduction due to plasticity than cracks. Supershear ruptures are affected even more. The occurrence of multiple rupture fronts affect seismic potency release rate, amplitude spectra, peak particle velocity distributions and near-field seismograms. Our simulations enable us to trace features of source processes in synthetic seismograms, for example exhibiting a re-activation of slip. Such physical models may provide starting points for future investigations of field properties of earthquake source mechanisms and natural fault conditions. In the long-term, our findings may be helpful for seismic hazard analysis and the improvement of seismic source models.

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

PubMed

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Rupture complexity of the Mw 8.3 sea of okhotsk earthquake: Rapid triggering of complementary earthquakes?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Shengji; Helmberger, Don; Zhan, Zhongwen; Graves, Robert

2013-01-01

We derive a finite slip model for the 2013 Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk Earthquake (Z = 610 km) by inverting calibrated teleseismic P waveforms. The inversion shows that the earthquake ruptured on a 10° dipping rectangular fault zone (140 km × 50 km) and evolved into a sequence of four large sub-events (E1–E4) with an average rupture speed of 4.0 km/s. The rupture process can be divided into two main stages. The first propagated south, rupturing sub-events E1, E2, and E4. The second stage (E3) originated near E2 with a delay of 12 s and ruptured northward, filling the slip gap between E1 and E2. This kinematic process produces an overall slip pattern similar to that observed in shallow swarms, except it occurs over a compressed time span of about 30 s and without many aftershocks, suggesting that sub-event triggering for deep events is significantly more efficient than for shallow events.

Slip Model of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) Earthquake from Inversions of ALOS-2 and GPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Fialko, Y. A.

2015-12-01

We use surface deformation measurements including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data acquired by the ALOS-2 mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to invert for the fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Assuming that the ruptured fault connects to the surface trace of the of Main Frontal Thrust fault (MFT) between 84.34E and 86.19E, the best-fitting model suggests a dip angle of 7 degrees. The moment calculated from the slip model is 6.17*1020 Nm, corresponding to the moment magnitude of 7.79. The rupture of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake was dominated by thrust motion that was primarily concentrated in a 150-km long zone 50 to 100 km northward from the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), with maximum slip of ~6 m at a depth of ~ 8 km. Data thus indicate that the 2015 Gorkha earthquake ruptured a deep part of the seismogenic zone, in contrast to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake, which had ruptured a shallow part of the adjacent fault segment to the East.

Nucleation and dynamic rupture on weakly stressed faults sustained by thermal pressurization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Stuart V.; Segall, Paul; Dunham, Eric M.

2015-11-01

Earthquake nucleation requires that the shear stress τ locally reaches a fault's static strength, fσeff, the product of the friction coefficient and effective normal stress. Once rupture initiates, shear heating-induced thermal pressurization can sustain rupture at much lower τ/σeff ratios, a stress condition believed to be the case during most earthquakes. This requires that earthquakes nucleate at heterogeneities. We model nucleation and dynamic rupture on faults in a 2-D elastic medium with rate/state friction and thermal pressurization, subjected to globally low τ but with local stress heterogeneities that permit nucleation. We examine end-member cases of either high-τ or low-σeff heterogeneities. We find that thermal pressurization can sustain slip at τ/σeff values as low as 0.13, compared to static friction of ˜0.7. Background τ (and, to lesser extent, heterogeneity width) controls whether ruptures arrest or are sustained, with extremely low values resulting in arrest. For a small range of background τ, sustained slip is pulse-like. Cessation of slip in a pulse tail can result from either diffusive restrengthening of σeff or a wave-mediated stopping phase that follows the rupture tip. Slightly larger background τ leads to sustained crack-like rupture. Thermal pressurization is stronger at high-τ heterogeneities, resulting in a lower background τ threshold for sustained rupture and potentially larger arresting ruptures. High-stress events also initiate with higher moment rate, although this may be difficult to observe in nature. For arresting ruptures, stress drops and the dependence of fracture energy on mean slip are both consistent with values inferred for small earthquakes.

Fault segmentation: New concepts from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; Olig, Susan S.; Hylland, Michael D.; Lund, William R.; Schwartz, David P.

2016-01-01

The question of whether structural segment boundaries along multisegment normal faults such as the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) act as persistent barriers to rupture is critical to seismic hazard analyses. We synthesized late Holocene paleoseismic data from 20 trench sites along the central WFZ to evaluate earthquake rupture length and fault segmentation. For the youngest (<3 ka) and best-constrained earthquakes, differences in earthquake timing across prominent primary segment boundaries, especially for the most recent earthquakes on the north-central WFZ, are consistent with segment-controlled ruptures. However, broadly constrained earthquake times, dissimilar event times along the segments, the presence of smaller-scale (subsegment) boundaries, and areas of complex faulting permit partial-segment and multisegment (e.g., spillover) ruptures that are shorter (~20–40 km) or longer (~60–100 km) than the primary segment lengths (35–59 km). We report a segmented WFZ model that includes 24 earthquakes since ~7 ka and yields mean estimates of recurrence (1.1–1.3 kyr) and vertical slip rate (1.3–2.0 mm/yr) for the segments. However, additional rupture scenarios that include segment boundary spatial uncertainties, floating earthquakes, and multisegment ruptures are necessary to fully address epistemic uncertainties in rupture length. We compare the central WFZ to paleoseismic and historical surface ruptures in the Basin and Range Province and central Italian Apennines and conclude that displacement profiles have limited value for assessing the persistence of segment boundaries but can aid in interpreting prehistoric spillover ruptures. Our comparison also suggests that the probabilities of shorter and longer ruptures on the WFZ need to be investigated.

Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Michael, A.J.

1998-01-01

Three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs velocity models for the Loma Prieta region were developed from the inversion of local travel time data (21,925 P arrivals and 1,116 S arrivals) from earthquakes, refraction shots, and blasts recorded on 1700 stations from the Northern California Seismic Network and numerous portable seismograph deployments. The velocity and density models and microearthquake hypocenters reveal a complex structure that includes a San Andreas fault extending to the base of the seismogenic layer. A body with high Vp extends the length of the rupture and fills the 5 km wide volume between the Loma Prieta mainshock rupture and the San Andreas and Sargent faults. We suggest that this body controls both the pattern of background seismicity on the San Andreas and Sargent faults and the extent of rupture during the mainshock, thus explaining how the background seismicity outlined the along-strike and depth extent of the mainshock rupture on a different fault plane 5 km away. New aftershock focal mechanisms, based on three-dimensional ray tracing through the velocity model, support a heterogeneous postseismic stress field and can not resolve a uniform fault normal compression. The subvertical (or steeply dipping) San Andreas fault and the fault surfaces that ruptured in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are both parts of the San Andreas fault zone and this section of the fault zone does not have a single type of characteristic event.

Is Directivity Still Effective in a PSHA Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2008-12-01

Source rupture parameters, like directivity, modulate the energy release causing variations in the radiated signal amplitude. Thus they affect the empirical predictive equations and as a consequence the seismic hazard assessment. Classical probabilistic hazard evaluations, e.g. Cornell (1968), use very simple predictive equations only based on magnitude and distance which do not account for variables concerning the rupture process. However nowadays, a few predictive equations (e.g. Somerville 1997, Spudich and Chiou 2008) take into account for rupture directivity. Also few implementations have been made in a PSHA framework (e.g. Convertito et al. 2006, Rowshandel 2006). In practice, these new empirical predictive models incorporate quantitatively the rupture propagation effects through the introduction of variables like rake, azimuth, rupture velocity and laterality. The contribution of all these variables is summarized in corrective factors derived from measuring differences between the real data and the predicted ones Therefore, it's possible to keep the older computation, making use of a simple predictive model, and besides, to incorporate the directivity effect through the corrective factors. Any single supplementary variable meaning a new integral in the parametric space. However the difficulty consists of the constraints on parameter distribution functions. We present the preliminary result for ad hoc distributions (Gaussian, uniform distributions) in order to test the impact of incorporating directivity into PSHA models. We demonstrate that incorporating directivity in PSHA by means of the new predictive equations may lead to strong percentage variations in the hazard assessment.

Supercycles at subduction thrusts controlled by seismogenic zone downdip width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dinther, Y.; Herrendoerfer, R.; Gerya, T.; Dalguer, L. A.

2014-12-01

Supercycles in subduction zones describe a long-term cluster of megathrust earthquakes, which recur in a similar way (Sieh et al. 2008,Goldfinger et al. 2013). It consists of two complete failures of a given subduction segment in between which, after a long period of relative quiescence, partial ruptures occur. We recognize that supercycles were proposed in those subduction zones (Sieh et al. 2008,Goldfinger et al. 2013, Metois et al. 2014, Chlieh et al. 2014) for which the seismogenic zone downdip width is estimated to be larger than average (Heuret et al. 2011, Hayes et al. 2012). We show with a two-dimensional numerical model of a subduction zone that the seismogenic zone downdip width indeed has a strong influence on the long-term seismicity pattern and rupture styles. Increasing the downdip width of the seismogenic zone leads to a transition from ordinary cycles of similar sized crack-like ruptures to supercycles consisting of a range of rupture sizes and styles. Our model demonstrates how interseismic deformation accompanied by subcritical and pulse-like ruptures effectively increases the stress throughout the seismogenic zone towards a critical state at which a crack-like superevent releases most of the accumulated stresses. We propose such stress evolution along the dip of the megathrust as the simplest explanation for supercycles. This conceptual model suggests that larger than thus far observed earthquakes could occur as part of a supercycle in subduction zones with a larger than average seismogenic zone downdip width (>120-150 km).

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2012-01-01

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

Broadband Rupture Process of the 2001 Kunlun Fault (Mw 7.8) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolik, M.; Abercrombie, R.; Ekstrom, G.

2003-04-01

We model the source process of the 14 November, 2001 Kunlun fault earthquake using broadband body waves from the Global Digital Seismographic Network (P, SH) and both point-source and distributed slip techniques. The point-source mechanism technique is a non-linear iterative inversion that solves for focal mechanism, moment rate function, depth, and rupture directivity. The P waves reveal a complex rupture process for the first 30 s, with smooth unilateral rupture toward the east along the Kunlun fault accounting for the remainder of the 120 s long rupture. The obtained focal mechanism for the main portion of the rupture is (strike=96o, dip=83o, rake=-8o) which is consistent with both the Harvard CMT solution and observations of the surface rupture. The seismic moment is 5.29×1020 Nm and the average rupture velocity is ˜3.5 km/s. However, the initial portion of the P waves cannot be fit at all with this mechanism. A strong pulse visible in the first 20 s can only be matched with an oblique-slip subevent (MW ˜ 6.8-7.0) involving a substantial normal faulting component, but the nodal planes of this mechanism are not well constrained. The first-motion polarities of the P waves clearly require a strike mechanism with a similar orientation as the Kunlun fault. Field observations of the surface rupture (Xu et al., SRL, 73, No. 6) reveal a small 26 km-long strike-slip rupture at the far western end (90.5o E) with a 45-km long gap and extensional step-over between this rupture and the main Kunlun fault rupture. We hypothesize that the initial fault break occurred on this segment, with release of the normal faulting energy as a continuous rupture through the extensional step, enabling transfer of the slip to the main Kunlun fault. This process is similar to that which occurred during the 2002 Denali fault (MW 7.9) earthquake sequence except that 11 days elapsed between the October 23 (M_W 6.7) foreshock and the initial break of the Denali earthquake along a thrust fault.

Geologic and structural controls on rupture zone fabric: A field-based study of the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake surface rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teran, Orlando; Fletcher, John L.; Oskin, Michael; Rockwell, Thomas; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Spelz, Ronald; Akciz, Sinan; Hernandez-Flores, Ana Paula; Morelan, Alexander

2015-01-01

We systematically mapped (scales >1:500) the surface rupture of the 4 April 2010 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake through the Sierra Cucapah (Baja California, northwestern Mexico) to understand how faults with similar structural and lithologic characteristics control rupture zone fabric, which is here defined by the thickness, distribution, and internal configuration of shearing in a rupture zone. Fault zone thickness and master fault dip are strongly correlated with many parameters of rupture zone fabric. Wider fault zones produce progressively wider rupture zones and both of these parameters increase systematically with decreasing dip of master faults, which varies from 20° to 90° in our dataset. Principal scarps that accommodate more than 90% of the total coseismic slip in a given transect are only observed in fault sections with narrow rupture zones (<25 m). As rupture zone thickness increases, the number of scarps in a given transect increases, and the scarp with the greatest relative amount of coseismic slip decreases. Rupture zones in previously undeformed alluvium become wider and have more complex arrangements of secondary fractures with oblique slip compared to those with pure normal dip-slip or pure strike-slip. Field relations and lidar (light detection and ranging) difference models show that as magnitude of coseismic slip increases from 0 to 60 cm, the links between kinematically distinct fracture sets increase systematically to the point of forming a throughgoing principal scarp. Our data indicate that secondary faults and penetrative off-fault strain continue to accommodate the oblique kinematics of coseismic slip after the formation of a thoroughgoing principal scarp. Among the widest rupture zones in the Sierra Cucapah are those developed above buried low angle faults due to the transfer of slip to widely distributed steeper faults, which are mechanically more favorably oriented. The results from this study show that the measureable parameters that define rupture zone fabric allow for testing hypotheses concerning the mechanics and propagation of earthquake ruptures, as well as for siting and designing facilities to be constructed in regions near active faults.

Uncertainty Estimation in Tsunami Initial Condition From Rapid Bayesian Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, R. F.; Dettmer, J.; Cummins, P. R.; Urrutia, A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

It is well known that kinematic rupture models for a given earthquake can present discrepancies even when similar datasets are employed in the inversion process. While quantifying this variability can be critical when making early estimates of the earthquake and triggered tsunami impact, "most likely models" are normally used for this purpose. In this work, we quantify the uncertainty of the tsunami initial condition for the great Illapel earthquake (Mw = 8.3, 2015, Chile). We focus on utilizing data and inversion methods that are suitable to rapid source characterization yet provide meaningful and robust results. Rupture models from teleseismic body and surface waves as well as W-phase are derived and accompanied by Bayesian uncertainty estimates from linearized inversion under positivity constraints. We show that robust and consistent features about the rupture kinematics appear when working within this probabilistic framework. Moreover, by using static dislocation theory, we translate the probabilistic slip distributions into seafloor deformation which we interpret as a tsunami initial condition. After considering uncertainty, our probabilistic seafloor deformation models obtained from different data types appear consistent with each other providing meaningful results. We also show that selecting just a single "representative" solution from the ensemble of initial conditions for tsunami propagation may lead to overestimating information content in the data. Our results suggest that rapid, probabilistic rupture models can play a significant role during emergency response by providing robust information about the extent of the disaster.

The 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence: Source Complexity Inferred from Rupture Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scognamiglio, L.; Tinti, E.; Casarotti, E.; Pucci, S.; Villani, F.; Cocco, M.; Magnoni, F.; Michelini, A.

2017-12-01

The Apennines have been struck by several seismic sequences in recent years, showing evidence of the activation of multiple segments of normal fault systems in a variable and, relatively short, time span, as in the case of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (three shocks in 40 s), the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (four main shocks in 18 days) and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake having three segments activated within a few weeks. The 2016-2017 central Apennines seismic sequence begin on August 24th with a MW 6.0 earthquake, which strike the region between Amatrice and Accumoli causing 299 fatalities. This earthquake ruptures a nearly 20 km long normal fault and shows a quite heterogeneous slip distribution. On October 26th, another main shock (MW 5.9) occurs near Visso extending the activated seismogenic area toward the NW. It is a double event rupturing contiguous patches on the fault segment of the normal fault system. Four days after the second main shock, on October 30th, a third earthquake (MW 6.5) occurs near Norcia, roughly midway between Accumoli and Visso. In this work we have inverted strong motion waveforms and GPS data to retrieve the source model of the MW 6.5 event with the aim of interpreting the rupture process in the framework of this complex sequence of moderate magnitude earthquakes. We noted that some preliminary attempts to model the slip distribution of the October 30th main shock using a single fault plane oriented along the Apennines did not provide convincing fits to the observed waveforms. In addition, the deformation pattern inferred from satellite observations suggested the activation of a multi-fault structure, that is coherent to the complexity and the extension of the geological surface deformation. We investigated the role of multi-fault ruptures and we found that this event revealed an extraordinary complexity of the rupture geometry and evolution: the coseismic rupture propagated almost simultaneously on a normal fault and on a blind fault, possibly inherited from compressional tectonics. These earthquakes raise serious concerns on our understanding of fault segmentation and seismicity evolution during sequences of normal faulting earthquakes. Finally, the retrieved rupture history has important implications on seismic hazard assessment and on the maximum expected magnitude in a given tectonic area.

75 FR 26883 - Airworthiness Directives; Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica S.A. (EMBRAER) Model ERJ 170 and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-13

... slat actuator structural failure (rupture) and its adjacent actuator torque limiter failing high... outboard slat actuator structural failure (rupture) and its adjacent actuator torque limiter failing high... requirements.'' Under that section, Congress charges the FAA with promoting safe flight of civil aircraft in...

Lipid-Lowering Agents and High HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) Are Inversely Associated With Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture.

PubMed

Can, Anil; Castro, Victor M; Dligach, Dmitriy; Finan, Sean; Yu, Sheng; Gainer, Vivian; Shadick, Nancy A; Savova, Guergana; Murphy, Shawn; Cai, Tianxi; Weiss, Scott T; Du, Rose

2018-05-01

Growing evidence from experimental animal models and clinical studies suggests the protective effect of statin use against rupture of intracranial aneurysms; however, results from large studies detailing the relationship between intracranial aneurysm rupture and total cholesterol, HDL (high-density lipoprotein), LDL (low-density lipoprotein), and lipid-lowering agent use are lacking. The medical records of 4701 patients with 6411 intracranial aneurysms diagnosed at the Massachusetts General Hospital and the Brigham and Women's Hospital between 1990 and 2016 were reviewed and analyzed. Patients were separated into ruptured and nonruptured groups. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the effects of lipids (total cholesterol, LDL, and HDL) and lipid-lowering medications on intracranial aneurysm rupture risk. Propensity score weighting was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics of the cohorts. Lipid-lowering agent use was significantly inversely associated with rupture status (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.71). In a subgroup analysis of complete cases that includes both lipid-lowering agent use and lipid values, higher HDL levels (odds ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.98) and lipid-lowering agent use (odds ratio, 0.41; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.73) were both significantly and inversely associated with rupture status, whereas total cholesterol and LDL levels were not significant. A monotonic exposure-response curve between HDL levels and risk of aneurysmal rupture was obtained. Higher HDL values and the use of lipid-lowering agents are significantly inversely associated with ruptured intracranial aneurysms. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Is internal friction friction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Byerlee, J.D.; Lockner, D.A.

1996-01-01

Mogi [1974] proposed a simple model of the incipient rupture surface to explain the Coulomb failure criterion. We show here that this model can plausibly be extended to explain the Mohr failure criterion. In Mogi's model the incipient rupture surface immediately before fracture consists of areas across which material integrity is maintained (intact areas) and areas across which it is not (cracks). The strength of the incipient rupture surface is made up of the inherent strength of the intact areas plus the frictional resistance to sliding offered by the cracked areas. Although the coefficient of internal friction (slope of the strength versus normal stress curve) depends upon both the frictional and inherent strengths, the phenomenon of internal friction can be identified with the frictional part. The curvature of the Mohr failure envelope is interpreted as a consequence of differences in damage (cracking) accumulated in prefailure loading at different confining pressures.

Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wendt, J.; Oglesby, D.D.; Geist, E.L.

2009-01-01

The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformation as a time-dependent boundary condition for a 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation. We find that if me stress distribution is homogeneous, rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust. When a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust, rupture propagates to the splay faults, and produces a significantly larger tsunami man in the homogeneous case. The results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes, and also suggest mat dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami researcn. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène

2016-04-01

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether earthquake or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source models are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source model should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozdon, J. E.; Dunham, E. M.

2012-12-01

There is strong observational evidence that the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture reached the seafloor. This was unexpected because the shallow portion of the plate interface is believed to be frictionally stable and thus not capable of sustaining coseismic rupture. In order to explore this seeming inconsistency we have developed a two-dimensional dynamic rupture model of the Tohoku earthquake. The model uses a complex fault, seafloor, and material interface structure as derived from seismic surveys. We use a rate-and-state friction model with steady state shear strength depending logarithmically on slip velocity, i.e., there is no dynamic weakening in the model. The frictional parameters are depth dependent with the shallowest portions of the fault beneath the accretionary prism being velocity strengthening. The total normal stress on the fault is taken to be lithostatic and the pore pressure is hydrostatic until a maximum effective normal stress is reached (40 MPa in our preferred model) after which point the pore pressure follows the lithostatic gradient. We also account for poroelastic buffering of effective normal stress changes on the fault. The off-fault response is linear elastic. Using this model we find that large stress changes are dynamically transmitted to the shallowest portions of the fault by waves released by deep slip that are reflected off the seafloor. These stress changes are significant enough to drive the rupture through a velocity strengthening region that is tens of kilometers long. Rupture to the trench is therefore consistent with standard assumptions about depth-dependence of subduction zone properties, and does not require extreme dynamic weakening, shallow high stress drop asperities, or other exceptional processes. We also make direct comparisons with measured seafloor deformation and onshore 1-Hz GPS data from the Tohoku earthquake. Through these comparisons we are able to determine the sensitivity of these data to several dynamic source parameters (prestress, seismogenic depth, and the extent and frictional properties of the shallow plate interface). We find that there is a trade-off between the near-trench frictional properties and effective normal stress, particularly for onshore measurements. That is, the data can be equally well fit by either a velocity strengthening or velocity weakening near-trench fault segment, provided that compensating adjustments are also made to the maximum effective normal stress on the fault. On the other hand, the seismogenic depth is fairly well constrained from the static displacement field, independent of effective normal stress and near-trench properties. Finally, we show that a water layer (modeled as an isotropic linear acoustic material) has a negligible effect on the rupture process. That said, the inclusion of a water layer allows us to make important predictions concerning hydroacoustic signals that were observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors.

Distributions of strong ground motion due to dynamic ruptures across a bimaterial fault: Implications for seismic hazard analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Jie; Zhu, Shoubiao

2016-12-01

We perform 2-D finite element calculations of mode II rupture along a bimaterial interface governed by regularized rate- and state-dependent friction law, with the goal of understanding how the bimaterial interface influences the strong ground motion. By comparison with properties of rupture in a homogeneous solid, we found that bimaterial mechanism is important for earthquake ruptures and influences the strong ground motion significantly. The simulated results show that mode II rupture evolves with propagation distance along a bimaterial interface to a unilateral wrinkle-like pulse in the direction of slip on the compliant side of the fault, namely in the positive direction. Strong ground motion caused by seismic waves emanated from the rupture propagation is asymmetrically distributed in space. The computed peak ground acceleration (PGA) is high in the near-fault region. Particularly, PGA is much larger in the region on the side in the positive direction. In addition, it is greater in the more compliant area of the model than that in the stiffer area with corresponding locations. Moreover, the differential PGA due to bimaterial effect increases with increasing degree of material contrast across the fault. It is hoped that the results obtained in this investigation will provide some implications for seismic hazard assessment and fault rupture mechanics.

Are recent empirical directivity models sufficient in capturing near-fault directivity effect?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yen-Shin; Cotton, Fabrice; Pagani, Marco; Weatherill, Graeme; Reshi, Owais; Mai, Martin

2017-04-01

It has been widely observed that the ground motion variability in the near field can be significantly higher than that commonly reported in published GMPEs, and this has been suggested to be a consequence of directivity. To capture the spatial variation in ground motion amplitude and frequency caused by the near-fault directivity effect, several models for engineering applications have been developed using empirical or, more recently, the combination of empirical and simulation data. Many research works have indicated that the large velocity pulses mainly observed in the near-field are primarily related to slip heterogeneity (i.e., asperities), suggesting that the slip heterogeneity is a more dominant controlling factor than the rupture velocity or source rise time function. The first generation of broadband directivity models for application in ground motion prediction do not account for heterogeneity of slip and rupture speed. With the increased availability of strong motion recordings (e.g., NGA-West 2 database) in the near-fault region, the directivity models moved from broadband to narrowband models to include the magnitude dependence of the period of the rupture directivity pulses, wherein the pulses are believed to be closely related to the heterogeneity of slip distribution. After decades of directivity models development, does the latest generation of models - i.e. the one including narrowband directivity models - better capture the near-fault directivity effects, particularly in presence of strong slip heterogeneity? To address this question, a set of simulated motions for an earthquake rupture scenario, with various kinematic slip models and hypocenter locations, are used as a basis for a comparison with the directivity models proposed by the NGA-West 2 project for application with ground motion prediction equations incorporating a narrowband directivity model. The aim of this research is to gain better insights on the accuracy of narrowband directivity models under conditions commonly encountered in the real world. Our preliminary result shows that empirical models including directivity factors better predict physics based ground-motion and their spatial variability than classical empirical models. However, the results clearly indicate that it is still a challenge for the directivity models to capture the strong directivity effect if a high level of slip heterogeneity is involved during the source rupture process.

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2008-01-01

California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specified magnitudes, locations, and faulting types will occur during a specified time interval. This report describes a new earthquake rupture forecast for California developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007).

A Model For Rapid Estimation of Economic Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2012-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Progressive failure during the 1596 Keicho earthquakes on the Median Tectonic Line active fault zone, southwest Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, M.; Toda, S.; Nishizaka, N.; Onishi, K.; Suzuki, S.

2015-12-01

Rupture patterns of a long fault system are controlled by spatial heterogeneity of fault strength and stress associated with geometrical characteristics and stress perturbation history. Mechanical process for sequential ruptures and multiple simultaneous ruptures, one of the characteristics of a long fault such as the North Anatolian fault, governs the size and frequency of large earthquakes. Here we introduce one of the cases in southwest Japan and explore what controls rupture initiation, sequential ruptures and fault branching on a long fault system. The Median Tectonic Line active fault zone　(hereinafter MTL) is the longest and most active fault in Japan. Based on historical accounts, a series of M ≥ 7 earthquakes occurred on at least a 300-km-long portion of the MTL in 1596. On September 1, the first event occurred on the Kawakami fault segment, in Central Shikoku, and the subsequent events occurred further west. Then on September 5, another rupture initiated from the Central to East Shikoku and then propagated toward the Rokko-Awaji fault zone to Kobe, a northern branch of the MTL, instead of the eastern main extent of the MTL. Another rupture eventually extended to near Kyoto. To reproduce this progressive failure, we applied two numerical models: one is a coulomb stress transfer; the other is a slip-tendency analysis under the tectonic stress. We found that Coulomb stress imparted from historical ruptures have triggered the subsequent ruptures nearby. However, stress transfer does not explain beginning of the sequence and rupture directivities. Instead, calculated slip-tendency values show highly variable along the MTL: high and low seismic potential in West and East Shikoku. The initiation point of the 1596 progressive failure locates near the boundary in the slip-tendency values. Furthermore, the slip-tendency on the Rokko-Awaji fault zone is far higher than that of the MTL in Wakayama, which may explain the rupture directivity toward Kobe-Kyoto.

Verification of SORD, and Application to the TeraShake Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, G. P.; Day, S.; Minster, J.

2007-12-01

The Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) code provides a highly scalable (up to billions of nodes) computational tool for modeling spontaneous rupture on a non-planar fault surface embedded in a heterogeneous medium with surface topography. SORD successfully performs the SCEC Rupture Dynamics Code Validation Project tests, and we have undertaken further dynamic rupture tests assessing the effects of distorted hexahedral meshes on code accuracy. We generate a family of distorted meshes by simple shearing (applied both parallel and normal to the fault plane) of an initially Cartesian mesh. For shearing normal to the fault, shearing angle was varied, up to a maximum of 73-degrees. For SCEC Validation Problem 3, grid-induced errors increase with mesh-shear angle, with the logarithm of error approximately proportional to angle over the range tested. At 73-degrees, RMS misfits are about 10% for peak slip rate, and 0.5% for both rupture time and total slip, indicating that the method--which up to now we have applied mainly to near-vertical strike-slip faulting-- also is capable of handling geometries appropriate to low-angle surface-rupturing thrust earthquakes. The SORD code was used to reexamine the TeraShake 2 dynamics simulations of a M7.7 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. Relative to the original (Olsen et al, 2007) TeraShake 2 simulations, our spontaneous rupture models find decreased peak ground velocities in the Los Angles basin, principally due to a shallower eastward connecting basin chain in the SCEC Velocity Model Version 4 (used in our simulations) compared to Version 3 (used by Olsen et al.). This is partially offset by including the effects of surface topography (which was not included in the Olsen et al. models) in the simulation, which increases PGV at some basin sites by as much as a factor of two. Some non-basin sites showed comparable decreases in PGV. These predicted topographic effects are quite large, so it is important to quantify SORD accuracy in the presence of non-planar free surface geometry. We test the case of a semi-circular canyon to an incident P wave, and find close agreement with boundary element methods, for surface amplification at wavelengths comparable to the canyon width.

Ground motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake II: Ground motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aagaard, B; Brocher, T; Dreger, D

2007-02-09

We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sitesmore » throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.« less

Ground-motion modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, part II: Ground-motion estimates for the 1906 earthquake and scenario events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; McCandless, K.; Nilsson, S.; Petersson, N.A.; Rodgers, A.; Sjogreen, B.; Zoback, M.L.

2008-01-01

We estimate the ground motions produce by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source model that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity models. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 earthquake are consistent across five ground-motion modeling groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.

Seismic rupture process of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake (Mw7.0) inferred from seismic and SAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Rúben; Caldeira, Bento; Borges, José; Bezzeghoud, Mourad

2013-04-01

On January 12th 2010 at 21:53, the Port-au-Prince - Haiti region was struck by an Mw7 earthquake, the second most deadly of the history. The last seismic significant events in the region occurred in November 1751 and June 1770 [1]. Geodetic and geological studies, previous to the 2010 earthquake [2] have warned to the potential of the destructive seismic events in that region and this event has confirmed those warnings. Some aspects of the source of this earthquake are nonconsensual. There is no agreement in the mechanism of rupture or correlation with the fault that should have it generated [3]. In order to better understand the complexity of this rupture, we combined several techniques and data of different nature. We used teleseismic body-wave and Synthetic Aperture Radar data (SAR) based on the following methodology: 1) analysis of the rupture process directivity [4] to determine the velocity and direction of rupture; 2) teleseismic body-wave inversion to obtain the spatiotemporal fault slip distribution and a detailed rupture model; 3) near field surface deformation modeling using the calculated seismic rupture model and compared with the measured deformation field using SAR data of sensor Advanced Land Observing Satellite - Phased Array L-band SAR (ALOS-PALSAR). The combined application of seismic and geodetic data reveals a complex rupture that spread during approximately 12s mainly from WNW to ESE with average velocity of 2,5km/s, on a north-dipping fault plane. Two main asperities are obtained: the first (and largest) occurs within the first ~ 5sec and extends for approximately 6km around the hypocenter; the second one, that happens in the remaining 6s, covers a near surface rectangular strip with about 12km long by 3km wide. The first asperity is compatible with a left lateral strike-slip motion with a small reverse component; the mechanism of second asperity is predominantly reverse. The obtained rupture process allows modeling a coseismic deformation which is in agreement with the deformation field measured by InSAR. [1] Bakun W, Flores C, Brink U, 2012 Significant Earthquakes on the Enriquillo Fault System, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for Seismic Hazard. Bul. Seis. Soc. of America, 102(1):18-30. [2] Dixon, T. et al., 1998. Relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates and related boundary zone deformation based on a decade of GPS observations. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 15157-15182. [3] Mercier de Lépinay, B., Deschamps, A., Klingelhoefer, F., Mazabraud, Y., Delouis, B., Clouard, V., Hello Y., Crozon, J., Marcaillou, B., Graindorge, D., Vallée M., Perrot, J., Bouin, M., Saurel, J., Charvis, Philippe, C. and St-Louis, 2011. The 2010 Haiti earthquake: A complex fault pattern constrained by seismologic and tectonic observations, Geoph. Res. Let., 30, L22305 [4] Caldeira B, Bezzeghoud M, Borges JF., 2009 DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining the seismic rupture velocity vector. J. of Seis.. 2009;14(3):565-600.

The 1959 MW 7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake revisited: morphology and mechanics from lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, K. L.; Nissen, E.; Lajoie, L. J.

2016-12-01

This study demonstrates how we can glean new information by revisiting an early instrumental earthquake with high-resolution topography and modern thinking about the mechanics of surface rupturing. The 1959 MW 7.3 Hebgen Lake earthquake is among the largest and most deadly historic earthquakes within the conterminous United States outside of California, and one of the largest normal faulting earthquakes on record globally. The earthquake ruptured the subparallel Hebgen and Red Canyon faults within the slowly extending ( 3 mm/yr) Centennial Mountain Belt, and is one of the first to be field mapped in detail, modeled from global seismograms, and surveyed geodetically. Here, we augment these early studies with an investigation of the surface rupture in its current state. We use a 50 cm-resolution airborne lidar digital terrain model collected by the National Center for Airborne Laser Mapping (NCALM) in 2014 to document the fault scarp morphology, constrain its evolution, and speculate on the mechanical rupture properties. Using a dense set of scarp profiles, we add >400 displacement measurements to the 143 published data points from early field work, allowing more rigorous quantification of along-strike slip variability and strain gradients. Evidence of off-fault deformation is sparse along most of the scarp, though damage zone width increases where the earthquake ruptured closely spaced sedimentary contacts rather than unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. In a few places, we can identify composite scarps from which we estimate the number of earthquakes that have offset Holocene surfaces. We assess the scarp's degraded state, including some sites that were surveyed in 1980 and 2009 and others that have not been revisited since the initial investigation. Where the rupture crosses unconsolidated surfaces, we compute local sediment diffusion coefficients and analyze their variability along strike. Lastly, we model subsurface fault geometry by fitting dipping planes to its surface trace, testing our best-fit fault dips against those recovered in seismic analyses; this reaffirms that both main rupture strands correspond to primary faulting rather than induced landsliding.

Finite-fault inversion of the Mw 5.9 2012 Emilia-Romagna earthquake (Northern Italy) using aftershocks as near-field Green's function approximations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Causse, Mathieu; Cultrera, Giovanna; Herrero, André; Courboulex, Françoise; Schiappapietra, Erika; Moreau, Ludovic

2017-04-01

On May 29, 2012 occurred a Mw 5.9 earthquake in the Emilia-Romagna region (Po Plain) on a thrust fault system. This shock, as well as hundreds of aftershocks, were recorded by 10 strong motion stations located less than 10 km away from the rupture plane, with 4 stations located within the surface rupture projection. The Po Plain is a very large EW trending syntectonic alluvial basin, delimited by the Alps and Apennines chains to the North and South. The Plio-Quaternary sedimentary sequence filling the Po Plain is characterized by an uneven thickness, ranging from several thousands of meters to a few tens of meters. This particular context results especially in a resonance basin below 1 Hz and strong surface waves, which makes it particularly difficult to model wave propagation and hence to obtain robust images of the rupture propagation. This study proposes to take advantage of the large set of recorded aftershocks, considered as point sources, to model wave propagation. Due to the heterogeneous distribution of the aftershocks on the fault plane, an interpolation technique is proposed to compute an approximation of the Green's function between each fault point and each strong motion station in the frequency range [0.2-1Hz]. We then use a Bayesian inversion technique (Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm) to obtain images of the rupture propagation from the strong motion data. We propose to retrieve the slip distribution by inverting the final slip value at some control points, which are allowed to move on the fault plane, and by interpolating the slip value between these points. We show that the use of 5 control points to describe the slip, coupled with the hypothesis of spatially constant rupture velocity and rise-time (that is 18 free source parameters), results in a good level of fit with the data. This indicates that despite their complexity, the strong motion data can be properly modeled up to 1 Hz using a relatively simple rupture. The inversion results also reveal that the rupture propagated slowly, at a speed of about 45% of the shear wave velocity.

Geodetically resolved slip distribution of the 27 August 2012 Mw=7.3 El Salvador earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geirsson, H.; La Femina, P. C.; DeMets, C.; Hernandez, D. A.; Mattioli, G. S.; Rogers, R.; Rodriguez, M.

2013-12-01

On 27 August 2012 a Mw=7.3 earthquake occurred offshore of Central America causing a small tsunami in El Salvador and Nicaragua but little damage otherwise. This is the largest magnitude earthquake in this area since 2001. We use co-seismic displacements estimated from episodic and continuous GPS station time series to model the magnitude and spatial variability of slip for this event. The estimated surface displacements are small (<2 cm) due to the distance and low magnitude of the earthquake. We use TDEFNODE to model the displacements using two different modeling approaches. In the first model, we solve for homogeneous slip on free rectangular fault(s), and in the second model we solve for distributed slip on the main thrust, realized using different slab models. The results indicate that we can match the seismic moment release, with models indicating rupture of a large area, with a low magnitude of slip. The slip is at shallow-to-intermediate depths on the main thrust off the coast of El Salvador. Additionally, we observe a deeper region of slip to the east, that reaches towards the Gulf of Fonseca between El Salvador and Nicaragua. The observed tsunami additionally indicates near-trench rupture off the coast of El Salvador. The duration of the rupturing is estimated from seismic data to be 70 s, which indicates a slow rupture process. Since the geodetic moment we obtain agrees with the seismic moment, this indicates that the earthquake was not associated with aseismic slip.

A-Priori Rupture Models for Northern California Type-A Faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Field, Edward H.

2008-01-01

This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, ?a-priori? models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults. Given the extensive level of effort given by the recent Bay-Area WGCEP-2002, our approach has been to adopt their final average models as our preferred a-prior models. We have modified the WGCEP-2002 models where necessary to match data that were not available or not used by that WGCEP and where the models needed by WGCEP-2007 for a uniform statewide model require different assumptions and/or logic-tree branch weights. In these cases we have made what are usually slight modifications to the WGCEP-2002 model. This Appendix presents the minor changes needed to accomodate updated information and model construction. We do not attempt to reproduce here the extensive documentation of data, model parameters and earthquake probablilities in the WG-2002 report.

In vivo serial MRI-based models and statistical methods to quantify sensitivity and specificity of mechanical predictors for carotid plaque rupture: location and beyond.

PubMed

Wu, Zheyang; Yang, Chun; Tang, Dalin

2011-06-01

It has been hypothesized that mechanical risk factors may be used to predict future atherosclerotic plaque rupture. Truly predictive methods for plaque rupture and methods to identify the best predictor(s) from all the candidates are lacking in the literature. A novel combination of computational and statistical models based on serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was introduced to quantify sensitivity and specificity of mechanical predictors to identify the best candidate for plaque rupture site prediction. Serial in vivo MRI data of carotid plaque from one patient was acquired with follow-up scan showing ulceration. 3D computational fluid-structure interaction (FSI) models using both baseline and follow-up data were constructed and plaque wall stress (PWS) and strain (PWSn) and flow maximum shear stress (FSS) were extracted from all 600 matched nodal points (100 points per matched slice, baseline matching follow-up) on the lumen surface for analysis. Each of the 600 points was marked "ulcer" or "nonulcer" using follow-up scan. Predictive statistical models for each of the seven combinations of PWS, PWSn, and FSS were trained using the follow-up data and applied to the baseline data to assess their sensitivity and specificity using the 600 data points for ulcer predictions. Sensitivity of prediction is defined as the proportion of the true positive outcomes that are predicted to be positive. Specificity of prediction is defined as the proportion of the true negative outcomes that are correctly predicted to be negative. Using probability 0.3 as a threshold to infer ulcer occurrence at the prediction stage, the combination of PWS and PWSn provided the best predictive accuracy with (sensitivity, specificity) = (0.97, 0.958). Sensitivity and specificity given by PWS, PWSn, and FSS individually were (0.788, 0.968), (0.515, 0.968), and (0.758, 0.928), respectively. The proposed computational-statistical process provides a novel method and a framework to assess the sensitivity and specificity of various risk indicators and offers the potential to identify the optimized predictor for plaque rupture using serial MRI with follow-up scan showing ulceration as the gold standard for method validation. While serial MRI data with actual rupture are hard to acquire, this single-case study suggests that combination of multiple predictors may provide potential improvement to existing plaque assessment schemes. With large-scale patient studies, this predictive modeling process may provide more solid ground for rupture predictor selection strategies and methods for image-based plaque vulnerability assessment.

Slip reactivation model for the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake: Dynamic rupture, sea floor displacements and tsunami simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvez, P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Rahnema, K.; Bader, M.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku earthquake has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. In fact more than one thousand near field strong-motion stations across Japan (K-Net and Kik-Net) revealed complex ground motion patterns attributed to the source effects, allowing to capture detailed information of the rupture process. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds. This observation is consistent with the kinematic source model obtained from the inversion of strong motion data performed by Lee's et al (2011). In this model two rupture fronts separated by 40 seconds emanate close to the hypocenter and propagate towards the trench. This feature is clearly observed by stacking the slip-rate snapshots on fault points aligned in the EW direction passing through the hypocenter (Gabriel et al, 2012), suggesting slip reactivation during the main event. A repeating slip on large earthquakes may occur due to frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. Kanamori & Heaton (2002) argued that during faulting of large earthquakes the temperature rises high enough creating melting and further reduction of friction coefficient. We created a 3D dynamic rupture model to reproduce this slip reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops . Our model starts like a M7-8 earthquake breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the earthquake into a megathrust event. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan.The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of up-lift close to the trench, which may be the cause of such a devastating tsunami followed by the Tohoku earthquake. To investigate the impact of such a huge up-lift, we ran tsunami simulations with the slip reactivation model using sam(oa)2 (O. Meister et al., 2012), a state-of-the-art Finite-Volume framework to simulate the resulting tsunami waves.

Lithospheric Structure and Active Deformation in the Salton Trough from Coseismic and Postseismic Models of the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fielding, E. J.; Huang, M. H.; Dickinson, H.; Freed, A. M.; Burgmann, R.; Gonzalez-Ortega, J. A.; Andronicos, C.

2016-12-01

The 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) Earthquake ruptured about 120 km along several NW-striking faults to the west of the Cerro Prieto Fault in the Salton Trough of Baja California, Mexico. We analyzed interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR), SAR and optical pixel offsets, and continuous and campaign GPS data to optimize an EMC coseismic rupture model with 9 fault segments, which fits the complex structure of the faults. Coseismic slip inversion with a layered elastic model shows that largely right-lateral slip is confined to upper 10 km with strong variations along strike. Near-field GPS measures slip on a north-striking normal fault that ruptured at the beginning of the earthquake, previously inferred from seismic waveforms. EMC Earthquake postseismic deformation shows the Earth's response to the large coseismic stress changes. InSAR shows rapid shallow afterslip at the north and south ends of the main ruptures. Continuous GPS from the Plate Boundary Observatory operated by UNAVCO measures the first six years of postseismic deformation, extremely rapid near the rupture. Afterslip on faults beneath the coseismic rupture cannot explain far-field displacements that are best explained by viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle. We built a viscoelastic 3D finite element model of the lithosphere and asthenosphere based on available data for the region with the EMC coseismic faults embedded inside. Coseismic slip was imposed on the model, allowed to relax for 5 years, and then compared to the observed surface deformation. Systematic exploration of the viscoelastic parameters shows that horizontal and vertical heterogeneity is required to fit the postseismic deformation. Our preferred viscoelastic model has weaker viscosity layers beneath the Salton Trough than adjacent blocks that are consistent with the inferred differences in the geotherms. Defining mechanical lithosphere as rocks that have viscosities greater than 10^19 Pa s (able to sustain stresses for more than 100 years), we infer the thickness of lithosphere beneath the Salton Trough to be 32 km and 65 km beneath the Peninsula Ranges to the west. These mechanical lithosphere-asthenosphere boundaries (LABs) are shallower than the observed seismic LABs, but probably better represent the strength of the blocks in this area.

Association between statin therapy and tendon rupture: a case-control study.

PubMed

Beri, Abhimanyu; Dwamena, Francesca C; Dwamena, Ben A

2009-05-01

Although case reports of a possible association between statin therapy and tendon rupture have been published, no analytical studies exploring this relationship have been reported. We conducted a case-control study using the electronic medical records at Michigan State University from 2002 to 2007 to assess whether statin use is a risk factor for tendon rupture. We compared exposure to statins in 93 cases of tendon rupture with similar exposure in 279 sex- and age-matched controls. Exposure to statins was defined as documentation in the electronic medical record of statin use in the 12 months preceding tendon rupture. For controls, the exposure period was defined as 1 year preceding the last office visit. We used a multivariate logistic regression model, controlling for diabetes, renal disease, rheumatologic disease, and steroid use, to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs). There was no significant difference between cases and controls in the rates of statin use, with either univariate [OR = 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-1.84] or multivariate analyses (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.57-2.13). Based on predetermined subgroup analyses, statin exposure was found to be a significant risk factor for tendon rupture in women (adjusted OR = 3.76, 95% CI 1.11-12.75) but not in men (adjusted OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.29-1.51). In conclusion, we found no overall association between statin use and tendon rupture, but subgroup analysis suggested that women with tendon rupture were more likely to be on statins.

Size ratio correlates with intracranial aneurysm rupture status: a prospective study.

PubMed

Rahman, Maryam; Smietana, Janel; Hauck, Erik; Hoh, Brian; Hopkins, Nick; Siddiqui, Adnan; Levy, Elad I; Meng, Hui; Mocco, J

2010-05-01

The prediction of intracranial aneurysm (IA) rupture risk has generated significant controversy. The findings of the International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms (ISUIA) that small anterior circulation aneurysms (<7 mm) have a 0% risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage in 5 years is difficult to reconcile with other studies that reported a significant portion of ruptured IAs are small. These discrepancies have led to the search for better aneurysm parameters to predict rupture. We previously reported that size ratio (SR), IA size divided by parent vessel diameter, correlated strongly with IA rupture status (ruptured versus unruptured). These data were all collected retrospectively off 3-dimensional angiographic images. Therefore, we performed a blinded prospective collection and evaluation of SR data from 2-dimensional angiographic images for a consecutive series of patients with ruptured and unruptured IAs. We prospectively enrolled 40 consecutive patients presenting to a single institution with either ruptured IA or for first-time evaluation of an incidental IA. Blinded technologists acquired all measurements from 2-dimensional angiographic images. Aneurysm rupture status, location, IA maximum size, and parent vessel diameter were documented. The SR was calculated by dividing the aneurysm size (mm) by the average parent vessel size (mm). A 2-tailed Mann-Whitney test was performed to assess statistical significance between ruptured and unruptured groups. Fisher exact test was used to compare medical comorbidities between the ruptured and unruptured groups. Significant differences between the 2 groups were subsequently tested with logistic regression. SE and probability values are reported. Forty consecutive patients with 24 unruptured and 16 ruptured aneurysms met the inclusion criteria. No significant differences were found in age, gender, smoking status, or medical comorbidities between ruptured and unruptured groups. The average maximum size of the unruptured IAs (6.18 + or - 0.60 mm) was significantly smaller compared with the ruptured IAs (7.91 + or - 0.47 mm; P=0.03), and the unruptured group had significantly smaller SRs (2.57 + or - 0.24 mm) compared with the ruptured group (4.08 + or - 0.54 mm; P<0.01). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the independent predictive value of those variables that achieved significance in univariate analysis (IA maximum size and SR). Using stepwise selection, only SR remained in the final predictive model (OR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 4.13). SR, the ratio between aneurysm size and parent artery diameter, can be easily calculated from 2-dimensional angiograms and correlates with IA rupture status on presentation in a blinded analysis. SR should be further studied in a large prospective observational cohort to predict true IA risk of rupture.

Using Socioeconomic Data to Calibrate Loss Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2013-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Fault Gauge Numerical Simulation : Dynamic Rupture Propagation and Local Energy Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mollon, G.

2017-12-01

In this communication, we present dynamic simulations of the local (centimetric) behaviour of a fault filled with a granular gauge submitted to dynamic rupture. The numerical tool (Fig. 1) combines classical Discrete Element Modelling (albeit with the ability to deal with arbitrary grain shapes) for the simualtion of the gauge, and continuous modelling for the simulation of the acoustic waves emission and propagation. In a first part, the model is applied to the simulation of steady-state shearing of the fault under remote displacement boudary conditions, in order to observe the shear accomodation at the interface (R1 cracks, localization, wear, etc.). It also makes it possible to fit to desired values the Rate and State Friction properties of the granular gauge by adapting the contact laws between grains. Such simulations provide quantitative insight in the steady-state energy partitionning between fracture, friction and acoustic emissions as a function of the shear rate. In a second part, the model is submitted to dynamic rupture. For that purpose, the fault is elastically preloaded just below rupture, and a displacement pulse is applied at one end of the sample (and on only one side of the fault). This allows to observe the propagation of the instability along the fault and the interplay between this propagation and the local granular phenomena. Energy partitionning is then observed both in space and time.

The Influence of TiO2 Addition on the Modulus of Rupture of Alumina-Magnesia Refractory Castables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenjie; Deng, Chengji; Zhu, Hongxi

2015-08-01

The addition of TiO2 to alumina-magnesia refractory castables could accelerate the in situ spinel and calcium hexa-aluminate (CA6) formation and change the phase evolution, which will have direct effect on the overall modulus of rupture values. The cold (CMOR) and hot (HMOR) modulus of rupture, thermal expansion, and elastic modulus of alumina-magnesia refractory castables with different amounts of TiO2 were measured. The correlation of CMOR, theoretical strength, fracture toughness, and the fractal dimension of the fracture surface for these compositions were investigated. HMOR data were described using the model based on Varshni approach and Adam-Gibbs theory. The influence of TiO2 addition on the modulus of rupture of alumina-magnesia refractory castables was related to microcracks derived from expansive phase formation and pore filling or viscous bridging due to the presence of liquid phase at high temperature. The contribution of the above factors to the modulus of rupture for castables varied with the temperature.

Intraslab rupture triggering megathrust rupture coseismically in the 17 December 2016 Solomon Islands Mw 7.9 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lay, Thorne; Ye, Lingling; Ammon, Charles J.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2017-02-01

The 17 December 2016 Solomon Islands earthquake (Mw 7.9) initiated 103 km deep in the subducting Solomon Sea slab near the junction of the Solomon Islands and New Britain trenches. Most aftershocks are located near the Solomon Islands plate boundary megathrust west of Bougainville, where previous large interplate thrust faulting earthquakes occurred in 1995 (Mw 7.7) and 1971 (Mw 8.0). Teleseismic body wave modeling and aftershock relocations indicate that the initial 30 s of the 2016 rupture occurred over depths of 90 to 120 km on an intraslab fault dipping 30° to the southwest, almost perpendicular to the dipping slab interface. The next 50 s of rupture took place at depths of 32 to 47 km in the deeper (Domain C) portion of the overlying megathrust fault dipping 35° to the northeast. High susceptibility to triggering in the region accounts for this compound rupture of two separate fault planes.

Mechanics of shear rupture applied to earthquake zones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Victor C.

1986-01-01

The mechanics of shear slippage and rupture in rock masses are reviewed. The essential ideas in fracture mechanics are summarized emphasizing the interpretation and relation among the fracture parameters in shear cracks. The slip-weakening model is described. The general formulation of the problem of nonuniform slip distribution in a continuum is covered.

Strain release along ocean transform faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, L. M.

A global study of the nature of seismic rupture along oceanic transform faults (TFs) is presented, and many aspects of fault behavior and Mid-Ocean Ridge processes are discussed. A classification of TF earthquakes is developed based on their relative excitation of short period body waves to long period surface waves. Since the ways in which transform faults release their accumulated strain varies, for more than 50 earthquakes occurring on 30 TFs since 1963 form the database for a comparison of rupture processes. The variation of TF rupture processes is not related to spreading rate or TF offset. A study of seismicity of the Eltanin Fracture Zone system shows that unlike many TFs, the Eltanin FZ realizes more than 90% of its slip aseismically. This identifies a major portion of plate boundary whose motion persists undetected by seismic instruments. The global variations in rupture patterns are discussed in terms of current models of fault behavior. The versatility of the asperity model accommodates the entire range of observed patterns. Variations in physical properties within TF contact zones (asperities) are documented in the petrology and geochemistry of rocks from ophiolite sections and TFs.

Phenytoin accelerates tendon healing in a rat model of Achilles tendon rupture.

PubMed

Hajipour, B; Navali, A M; Mohammad, S Ali; Mousavi, G; Akbari, M Gahvechi; Miyandoab, T Maleki; Roshangar, L; Saleh, B Mohammadi; Kermani, T Asvadi; Laleh, F Moutab; Ghabili, M

2016-01-01

Tendons are vulnerable to various types of acute or chronic injures. Different methods have been investigated to achieve better healing. Phenytoin is a drug which could stimulate fibroblasts to produce collagen. This experimental study was performed to assess the effect of phenytoin on tendon healing in a rat model of tendon rupture. Thirty healthy rats were divided into 3 groups, 1) Sham group; 2) Tendon rupture; 3) Tendon rupture+phenytoin (100 mg/kg intraperitoneally) for 21 days. On 21st day after tendon injury, the rats were anesthetized and tendon tissue was sampled for studying by light and electron microscopy. Qualitative and quantitative microscopic comparisons of the repair tissues of both groups were made on the 21st day. The results obtained from light and electron microscopy studies showed that tendon tissue healing was significantly better in phenytoin group compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Systemic administration of phenytoin may have a positive effect on tendon healing by increasing fibroblast quantity, fibrillar collagen synthesis, vascularity, and suppressing inflammation (Tab. 2, Ref. 25).

Separated rupture and retraction of a bi-layer free film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Peter; Feng, Jie; Griffiths, Ian

2017-11-01

We investigate the dynamics of a rising air bubble in an aqueous phase coated with a layer of oil. Recent experiments have shown that bubble rupture at the compound air/oil/aqueous interface can effectively disperse submicrometre oil droplets into the aqueous phase, suggesting a possible mechanism for clean-up of oil spillages on the surface of the ocean. Using a theoretical model we consider the stability of the long liquid free film formed as the bubble reaches the free surface, composed of two immiscible layers of differing viscosities, where each layer experiences a van der Waals force between its interfaces. For an excess of surfactant on one gas-liquid interface we show that the instability manifests as distinct rupture events, with the oil layer rupturing first and retracting over the in-tact water layer beneath, consistent with the experimental observations. We use our model to examine the dynamics of oil retraction, showing that it follows a power-law for short times, and examine the influence of retraction on the stability of the water layer.

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.; Minasian, Diane L.

2015-01-01

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Intertidal biological indicators of coseismic subsidence during the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii, Canada, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haeussler, Peter J.; Witter, Robert C.; Wang, Kelin

2015-01-01

The 28 October 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a megathrust earthquake along the very obliquely convergent Queen Charlotte margin of British Columbia, Canada. Coseismic deformation is not well constrained by geodesy, with only six Global Positioning System (GPS) sites and two tide gauge stations within 250 km of the rupture area. To better constrain vertical coseismic deformation, we measured the upper growth limits of two sessile intertidal organisms, which are controlled by physical conditions, relative to sea level at 25 sites 5 months after the earthquake. We measured the positions of rockweed (Fucus distichus, 617 observations) and the common acorn barnacle (Balanus balanoides, 686 observations). The study focused on the western side of the islands where rupture models indicated that the greatest amount of vertical displacement, but we also investigated sites well away from the inferred rupture area to provide a control on the upper limit of the organisms unaffected by vertical displacement. We also made 322 measurements of sea level to relate the growth limits to a tidal datum using the TPXO7.2 tidal model, rather than ellipsoid heights determined by GPS. Three methods of examining the data all indicate 0.4–0.6 m subsidence along the western coast of Moresby Island as a result of the 28 October 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake. Our data are, within the errors, consistent with data from two campaign GPS sites along the west coast of Haida Gwaii and with rupture models that indicate megathrust rupture offshore, but not beneath, the islands.

Exploring the age of intracranial aneurysms using carbon birth dating: preliminary results.

PubMed

Etminan, Nima; Dreier, Rita; Buchholz, Bruce A; Bruckner, Peter; Steiger, Hans-Jakob; Hänggi, Daniel; Macdonald, R Loch

2013-03-01

There is a controversy about the time span over which cerebral aneurysms develop. In particular, it is unknown whether collagen in ruptured aneurysms undergoes more rapid turnover than in unruptured aneurysms.(14)C birth dating of collagen could be used to address this question. Aneurysmal domes from patients undergoing surgical treatment for ruptured or unruptured aneurysms were excised. Aneurysmal collagen was isolated and purified after pepsin digestion. Collagen from mouse tendons served as controls. F(14)C levels in collagen were analyzed by accelerator mass spectrometry and correlated with patient age and aneurysm size. Analysis of 10 aneurysms from 9 patients (6 ruptured, 3 unruptured) revealed an average aneurysm collagen age of <5 years, generally irrespective of patient age and aneurysm size or rupture status. Interestingly, F(14)C levels correlated with patient age as well as aneurysm size in ruptured aneurysm collagen samples. Our preliminary data suggest that collagen extracted from intracranial aneurysms generally has a high turnover, associated with aneurysm size and patient age. The correlation of patient age and aneurysm F(14)C levels could explain models of aneurysm development. Although preliminary, our findings may have implications for the biological and structural stability of ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms.

Effect of off-fault low-velocity elastic inclusions on supershear rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiao; Elbanna, A. E.

2015-10-01

Heterogeneous velocity structures are expected to affect fault rupture dynamics. To quantitatively evaluate some of these effects, we examine a model of dynamic rupture on a frictional fault embedded in an elastic full space, governed by plane strain elasticity, with a pair of off-fault inclusions that have a lower rigidity than the background medium. We solve the elastodynamic problem using the Finite Element software Pylith. The fault operates under linear slip-weakening friction law. We initiate the rupture by artificially overstressing a localized region near the left edge of the fault. We primarily consider embedded soft inclusions with 20 per cent reduction in both the pressure wave and shear wave speeds. The embedded inclusions are placed at different distances from the fault surface and have different sizes. We show that the existence of a soft inclusion may significantly shorten the transition length to supershear propagation through the Burridge-Andrews mechanism. We also observe that supershear rupture is generated at pre-stress values that are lower than what is theoretically predicted for a homogeneous medium. We discuss the implications of our results for dynamic rupture propagation in complex velocity structures as well as supershear propagation on understressed faults.

Acoustic investigation of the aperture dynamics of an elastic membrane closing an overpressurized cylindrical cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez, Claudia; Vidal, Valérie; Melo, Francisco

2015-08-01

We report an experimental study of the acoustic signal produced by the rupture of an elastic membrane that initially closes a cylindrical overpressurized cavity. This configuration has been recently used as an experimental model system for the investigation of the acoustic emission from the bursting of elongated gas bubbles rising in a conduit. Here, we investigate the effect of the membrane rupture dynamics on the acoustic signal produced by the pressure release by changing the initial tension of the membrane. The initial overpressure in the cavity is fixed at a value such that the system remains in the linear acoustic regime. For large initial membrane deformation, the rupture time τ rup is small compared to the wave propagation time in the cavity and the pressure wave inside the conduit can be fully captured by the linear theory. For low membrane tension, a hole is pierced in the membrane but its rupture does not occur. For intermediate deformation, finally, the rupture progresses in two steps: first the membrane opens slowly; then, after reaching a critical size, the rupture accelerates. A transversal wave is excited along the membrane surface. The characteristic signature of each opening dynamics on the acoustic emission is described.

Pediatric appendicitis rupture rate: a national indicator of disparities in healthcare access.

PubMed

Jablonski, Kathleen A; Guagliardo, Mark F

2005-05-04

BACKGROUND: The U.S. National Healthcare Disparities Report is a recent effort to measure and monitor racial and ethnic disparities in health and healthcare. The Report is a work in progress and includes few indicators specific to children. An indicator worthy of consideration is racial/ethnic differences in the rate of bad outcomes for pediatric acute appendicitis. Bad outcomes for this condition are indicative of poor access to healthcare, which is amenable to social and healthcare policy changes. METHODS: We analyzed the KID Inpatient Database, a nationally representative sample of pediatric hospitalization, to compare rates of appendicitis rupture between white, African American, Hispanic and Asian children. We ran weighted logistic regression models to obtain national estimates of relative odds of rupture rate for the four groups, adjusted for developmental, biological, socioeconomic, health services and hospital factors that might influence disease outcome. RESULTS: Rupture was a much more burdensome outcome than timely surgery and rupture avoidance. Rupture cases had 97% higher hospital charges and 175% longer hospital stays than non-rupture cases on average. These burdens disproportionately affected minority children, who had 24% - 38% higher odds of appendicitis rupture than white children, adjusting for age and gender. These differences were reduced, but remained significant after adjusting for other factors. CONCLUSION: The racial/ethnic disparities in pediatric appendicitis outcome are large and are preventable with timely diagnosis and surgery for all children. Furthermore, estimating this disparity using the KID survey is a relatively straightforward process. Therefore pediatric appendicitis rupture rate is a good candidate for inclusion in the National Healthcare Disparities Report. As with most other health and healthcare disparities, efforts to reduce disparities in income, wealth and access to care will most likely improve the odds of favorable outcome for this condition as well.

Rupture Dynamics and Ground Motion from Earthquakes in Heterogeneous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S.; Dunham, E. M.; Kozdon, J. E.

2012-12-01

Heterogeneities in the material properties of Earth's crust scatter propagating seismic waves. The effects of scattered waves are reflected in the seismic coda and depend on the relative strength of the heterogeneities, spatial arrangement, and distance from source to receiver. In the vicinity of the fault, scattered waves influence the rupture process by introducing fluctuations in the stresses driving propagating ruptures. Further variability in the rupture process is introduced by naturally occurring geometric complexity of fault surfaces, and the stress changes that accompany slip on rough surfaces. We have begun a modeling effort to better understand the origin of complexity in the earthquake source process, and to quantify the relative importance of source complexity and scattering along the propagation path in causing incoherence of high frequency ground motion. To do this we extended our two-dimensional high order finite difference rupture dynamics code to accommodate material heterogeneities. We generate synthetic heterogeneous media using Von Karman correlation functions and their associated power spectral density functions. We then nucleate ruptures on either flat or rough faults, which obey strongly rate-weakening friction laws. Preliminary results for flat faults with uniform frictional properties and initial stresses indicate that off-fault material heterogeneity alone can lead to a complex rupture process. Our simulations reveal the excitation of high frequency bursts of waves, which radiate energy away from the propagating rupture. The average rupture velocity is thus reduced relative to its value in simulations employing homogeneous material properties. In the coming months, we aim to more fully explore parameter space by varying the correlation length, Hurst exponent, and amplitude of medium heterogeneities, as well as the statistical properties characterizing fault roughness.

Delineation of Rupture Propagation of Large Earthquakes Using Source-Scanning Algorithm: A Control Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, H.; Shan, S.

2004-12-01

Determination of the rupture propagation of large earthquakes is important and of wide interest to the seismological research community. The conventional inversion method determines the distribution of slip at a grid of subfaults whose orientations are predefined. As a result, difference choices of fault geometry and dimensions often result in different solutions. In this study, we try to reconstruct the rupture history of an earthquake using the newly developed Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) without imposing any a priori constraints on the fault's orientation and dimension. The SSA identifies the distribution of seismic sources in two steps. First, it calculates the theoretical arrival times from all grid points inside the model space to all seismic stations by assuming an origin time. Then, the absolute amplitudes of the observed waveforms at the predicted arrival times are added to give the "brightness" of each time-space pair, and the brightest spots mark the locations of sources. The propagation of the rupture is depicted by the migration of the brightest spots throughout a prescribed time window. A series of experiments are conducted to test the resolution of the SSA inversion. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that seismometers should be placed as close as possible to the fault trace to give the best resolution in delineating rupture details, we found that the best results are obtained if the seismograms are recorded at a distance about half of the total rupture length away from the fault trace. This is especially true when the rupture duration is longer than ~10 s. A possible explanation is that the geometric spreading effects for waveforms from different segments of the rupture are about the same if the stations are sufficiently away from the fault trace, thus giving a uniform resolution to the entire rupture history.

Biomechanical Indices for Rupture Risk Estimation in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms.

PubMed

Leemans, Eva L; Willems, Tineke P; van der Laan, Maarten J; Slump, Cornelis H; Zeebregts, Clark J

2017-04-01

To review the use of biomechanical indices for the estimation of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture risk, emphasizing their potential use in a clinical setting. A search of the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Compendex databases was made up to June 2015 to identify articles involving biomechanical analysis of AAA rupture risk. Outcome variables [aneurysm diameter, peak wall stress (PWS), peak wall shear stress (PWSS), wall strain, peak wall rupture index (PWRI), and wall stiffness] were compared for asymptomatic intact AAAs vs symptomatic or ruptured AAAs. For quantitative analysis of the pooled data, a random effects model was used to calculate the standard mean differences (SMDs) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the biomechanical indices. The initial database searches yielded 1894 independent articles of which 19 were included in the analysis. The PWS was significantly higher in the symptomatic/ruptured group, with a SMD of 1.11 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.26, p<0.001). Likewise, the PWRI was significantly higher in the ruptured or symptomatic group, with a SMD of 1.15 (95% CI 0.30 to 2.01, p=0.008). After adjustment for the aneurysm diameter, the PWS remained higher in the ruptured or symptomatic group, with a SMD of 0.85 (95% CI 0.46 to 1.23, p<0.001). Less is known of the wall shear stress and wall strain indices, as too few studies were available for analysis. Biomechanical indices are a promising tool in the assessment of AAA rupture risk as they incorporate several factors, including geometry, tissue properties, and patient-specific risk factors. However, clinical implementation of biomechanical AAA assessment remains a challenge owing to a lack of standardization.

Dynamic Rupture Modeling in Three Dimensions on Unstructured Meshes Using a Discontinuous Galerkin Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelties, C.; Käser, M.

2010-12-01

We will present recent developments concerning the extensions of the ADER-DG method to solve three dimensional dynamic rupture problems on unstructured tetrahedral meshes. The simulation of earthquake rupture dynamics and seismic wave propagation using a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method in 2D was recently presented by J. de la Puente et al. (2009). A considerable feature of this study regarding spontaneous rupture problems was the combination of the DG scheme and a time integration method using Arbitrarily high-order DERivatives (ADER) to provide high accuracy in space and time with the discretization on unstructured meshes. In the resulting discrete velocity-stress formulation of the elastic wave equations variables are naturally discontinuous at the interfaces between elements. The so-called Riemann problem can then be solved to obtain well defined values of the variables at the discontinuity itself. This is in particular valid for the fault at which a certain friction law has to be evaluated. Hence, the fault’s geometry is honored by the computational mesh. This way, complex fault planes can be modeled adequately with small elements while fast mesh coarsening is possible with increasing distance from the fault. Due to the strict locality of the scheme using only direct neighbor communication, excellent parallel behavior can be observed. A further advantage of the scheme is that it avoids spurious high-frequency contributions in the slip rate spectra and therefore does not require artificial Kelvin-Voigt damping or filtering of synthetic seismograms. In order to test the accuracy of the ADER-DG method the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) benchmark for spontaneous rupture simulations was employed. Reference: J. de la Puente, J.-P. Ampuero, and M. Käser (2009), Dynamic rupture modeling on unstructured meshes using a discontinuous Galerkin method, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, B10302, doi:10.1029/2008JB006271

Performance of Irikura's Recipe Rupture Model Generator in Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations as Implemented in the Graves and Pitarka Hybrid Approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pitarka, A.

We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (2011) (IM2011) asperity-­ based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground-­motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0 -­ 20Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with bothmore » IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-­West2 Project (NGA-­West2) ground-­motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1–10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-­fault distances (<12km) and at long periods (>1s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1 – 3 sec where the IM2011 motions are about 20 – 30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1 – 3 second bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study.« less

The 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake, Southern California: Vector Near-Field Displacements from ERS InSAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandwell, David T.; Sichoix, Lydie; Smith, Bridget

2002-01-01

Two components of fault slip are uniquely determined from two line-of-sight (LOS) radar interferograms by assuming that the fault-normal component of displacement is zero. We use this approach with ascending and descending interferograms from the ERS satellites to estimate surface slip along the Hector Mine earthquake rupture. The LOS displacement is determined by visually counting fringes to within 1 km of the outboard ruptures. These LOS estimates and uncertainties are then transformed into strike- and dip-slip estimates and uncertainties; the transformation is singular for a N-S oriented fault and optimal for an E-W oriented fault. In contrast to our previous strike-slip estimates, which were based only on a descending interferogram, we now find good agreement with the geological measurements, except at the ends of the rupture. The ascending interferogram reveals significant west-sidedown dip-slip (approximately 1.0 m) which reduces the strike-slip estimates by 1 to 2 m, especially along the northern half of the rupture. A spike in the strike-slip displacement of 6 m is observed in central part of the rupture. This large offset is confirmed by subpixel cross correlation of features in the before and after amplitude images. In addition to strike slip and dip slip, we identify uplift and subsidence along the fault, related to the restraining and releasing bends in the fault trace, respectively. Our main conclusion is that at least two look directions are required for accurate estimates of surface slip even along a pure strike-slip fault. Models and results based only on a single look direction could have major errors. Our new estimates of strike slip and dip slip along the rupture provide a boundary condition for dislocation modeling. A simple model, which has uniform slip to a depth of 12 km, shows good agreement with the observed ascending and descending interferograms.

Late Holocene paleoseismology of Shuyak Island, Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska - surface deformation and plate segmentation within the 1964 Alaska M 9.2 earthquake rupture zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brader, Martin; Shennan, Ian; Barlow, Natasha; Davies, Frank; Longley, Chris; Tunstall, Neil

2017-04-01

Recent paleoseismological studies question whether segment boundaries identified for 20th and 21st century great, >M 8, earthquakes persist through multiple earthquake cycles, or whether smaller segments with different boundaries rupture and cause significant hazards. The smaller segments may include some that are currently slipping rather than locked. The 1964 Alaska M 9.2 earthquake was the largest of five earthquakes of >M 7.9 between 1938 and 1965 along the Aleutian chain and coast of southcentral Alaska that helped define models of rupture segments along the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust. The 1964 M 9.2 earthquake ruptured ˜950 km of the megathrust, involving two main asperities focussed on Kodiak Island and Prince William Sound and crossed the Kenai segment, which is currently creeping. Paleoseismic studies of coastal sediments currently provide a long record of previous large earthquakes for the Prince William Sound segment, with widespread evidence of seven great earthquakes in the last 4000 years and more restricted evidence for three earlier ones. Shorter and more fragmentary records from the Kenai Peninsula, Yakataga and Kodiak Archipelago raise the hypothesis of different patterns of surface deformation during past great earthquakes. We present new evidence from coastal wetlands on Shuyak Island, towards the hypothesised north-eastern boundary of the Kodiak segment, to illustrate different detection limits of paleoseismic indicators and how these influence the identification of segment boundaries in late Holocene earthquakes. We compare predictions of co-seismic uplift and subsidence derived from geophysical models of earthquakes with different rupture modes. The spatial patterns of agreement and misfit between model predictions and quantitative reconstructions of co-seismic submergence and emergence suggest that no earthquake within the last 4000 years had the same rupture pattern as the 1964 M 9.2 earthquake.

Slip model of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake from inversions of ALOS-2 and GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kang; Fialko, Yuri

2015-09-01

We use surface deformation measurements including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data acquired by the ALOS-2 mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to invert for the fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Assuming that the ruptured fault connects to the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault between 84.34°E and 86.19°E, the best fitting model suggests a dip angle of 7°. The moment calculated from the slip model is 6.08 × 1020 Nm, corresponding to the moment magnitude of 7.79. The rupture of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake was dominated by thrust motion that was primarily concentrated in a 150 km long zone 50 to 100 km northward from the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), with maximum slip of ˜ 5.8 m at a depth of ˜8 km. Data thus indicate that the 2015 Gorkha earthquake ruptured a deep part of the seismogenic zone, in contrast to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake, which had ruptured a shallow part of the adjacent fault segment to the east.

Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis of Ruptured Mitral Chordae Tendineae.

PubMed

Toma, Milan; Bloodworth, Charles H; Pierce, Eric L; Einstein, Daniel R; Cochran, Richard P; Yoganathan, Ajit P; Kunzelman, Karyn S

2017-03-01

The chordal structure is a part of mitral valve geometry that has been commonly neglected or simplified in computational modeling due to its complexity. However, these simplifications cannot be used when investigating the roles of individual chordae tendineae in mitral valve closure. For the first time, advancements in imaging, computational techniques, and hardware technology make it possible to create models of the mitral valve without simplifications to its complex geometry, and to quickly run validated computer simulations that more realistically capture its function. Such simulations can then be used for a detailed analysis of chordae-related diseases. In this work, a comprehensive model of a subject-specific mitral valve with detailed chordal structure is used to analyze the distinct role played by individual chordae in closure of the mitral valve leaflets. Mitral closure was simulated for 51 possible chordal rupture points. Resultant regurgitant orifice area and strain change in the chordae at the papillary muscle tips were then calculated to examine the role of each ruptured chorda in the mitral valve closure. For certain subclassifications of chordae, regurgitant orifice area was found to trend positively with ruptured chordal diameter, and strain changes correlated negatively with regurgitant orifice area. Further advancements in clinical imaging modalities, coupled with the next generation of computational techniques will enable more physiologically realistic simulations.

Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis of Ruptured Mitral Chordae Tendineae

PubMed Central

Toma, Milan; Bloodworth, Charles H.; Pierce, Eric L.; Einstein, Daniel R.; Cochran, Richard P.; Yoganathan, Ajit P.; Kunzelman, Karyn S.

2016-01-01

The chordal structure is a part of mitral valve geometry that has been commonly neglected or simplified in computational modeling due to its complexity. However, these simplifications cannot be used when investigating the roles of individual chordae tendineae in mitral valve closure. For the first time, advancements in imaging, computational techniques, and hardware technology make it possible to create models of the mitral valve without simplifications to its complex geometry, and to quickly run validated computer simulations that more realistically capture its function. Such simulations can then be used for a detailed analysis of chordae-related diseases. In this work, a comprehensive model of a subject-specific mitral valve with detailed chordal structure is used to analyze the distinct role played by individual chordae in closure of the mitral valve leaflets. Mitral closure was simulated for 51 possible chordal rupture points. Resultant regurgitant orifice area and strain change in the chordae at the papillary muscle tips were then calculated to examine the role of each ruptured chorda in the mitral valve closure. For certain subclassifications of chordae, regurgitant orifice area was found to trend positively with ruptured chordal diameter, and strain changes correlated negatively with regurgitant orifice area. Further advancements in clinical imaging modalities, coupled with the next generation of computational techniques will enable more physiologically realistic simulations. PMID:27624659

Slip History of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake Constrained by Joint Inverting Seismic, Geodetic, and Geological Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, G.; Ji, C.; Lu, Z.; Hudnut, K. W.; Liu, J.; Zhang, W.

2009-12-01

We study the kinematic rupture process of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake using all geophysical and geological datasets that we are able to access, including the waveforms of teleseismic long period surface waves, broadband body waves and local strong motions, GPS vectors, interferometic radar (INSAR) images, and geological surface offsets. The relocated aftershock locations have also been included to constrain the potential fault geometry. These datasets have very different sensitivities to not only the slip on the fault but also the “a priori” information of the source inversions, such as the local velocity structure and the details of irregular fault surface. Effects have then been made to reconcile these datasets by reasonably perturbing the velocity structure and fault geometry, which are both poorly constrained. We have used two 1D velocity models, one for the Tibet plateau and the other for Sichuan basin, to calculate the static and dynamic earth responses; and developed a complex fault system including two irregular fault planes for Beichuan and Pengguan faults, respectively. The long wavelength errors of the INSAR LOS displacements have also been considered and been corrected simultaneously during the joint inversions. Our preferred model not only explains the geodetic and tele-seismic data very well, but also reasonably matches most strong motion waveforms. According to this result, the Wenchuan earthquake has an unprecedented complex rupture process. It initiated southwest of the town of Yingxiu at a depth of about 12 km, where the low-angle Pengguan fault and the high-angle Beichuan fault intersect. The rupture initiated on the low angle Pengguan fault and then later triggered the rupture on the high angle Beichuan fault. It then unilaterally ruptured northeastward for 270 km, mainly on the Beichuan fault. The entire rupture duration is over 95 seconds with an average rupture velocity of 3.0 km/s. Except for the region near the hypocenter and the region near the northeast end of the rupture, the majority of slip occurred at depths less than 12 km. The total seismic moment released by this earthquake was 1.02 x 1021 Nm, with ~36% on the Pengguan fault. Our analysis also indicates that the aftershock zone along the extension of the Xiaoyudong fault is consistent with the theory of static stress triggering due to the co-seismic rupture.

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

Material Constitutive Models for Creep and Rupture of SiC/SiC Ceramic-Matrix Composites (CMCs) Under Multiaxial Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grujicic, Mica; Galgalikar, R.; Snipes, J. S.; Ramaswami, S.

2016-05-01

Material constitutive models for creep deformation and creep rupture of the SiC/SiC ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) under general three-dimensional stress states have been developed and parameterized using one set of available experimental data for the effect of stress magnitude and temperature on the time-dependent creep deformation and rupture. To validate the models developed, another set of available experimental data was utilized for each model. The models were subsequently implemented in a user-material subroutine and coupled with a commercial finite element package in order to enable computational analysis of the performance and durability of CMC components used in high-temperature high-stress applications, such as those encountered in gas-turbine engines. In the last portion of the work, the problem of creep-controlled contact of a gas-turbine engine blade with the shroud is investigated computationally. It is assumed that the blade is made of the SiC/SiC CMC, and that the creep behavior of this material can be accounted for using the material constitutive models developed in the present work. The results clearly show that the blade-tip/shroud clearance decreases and ultimately becomes zero (the condition which must be avoided) as a function of time. In addition, the analysis revealed that if the blade is trimmed at its tip to enable additional creep deformation before blade-tip/shroud contact, creep-rupture conditions can develop in the region of the blade adjacent to its attachment to the high-rotational-speed hub.

Dynamic Parameters of the 2015 Nepal Gorkha Mw7.8 Earthquake Constrained by Multi-observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, H.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Dynamic rupture model can provide much detailed insights into rupture physics that is capable of assessing future seismic risk. Many studies have attempted to constrain the slip-weakening distance, an important parameter controlling friction behavior of rock, for several earthquakes based on dynamic models, kinematic models, and direct estimations from near-field ground motion. However, large uncertainties of the values of the slip-weakening distance still remain, mostly because of the intrinsic trade-offs between the slip-weakening distance and fault strength. Here we use a spontaneously dynamic rupture model to constrain the frictional parameters of the 25 April 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake, by combining with multiple seismic observations such as high-rate cGPS data, strong motion data, and kinematic source models. With numerous tests we find the trade-off patterns of final slip, rupture speed, static GPS ground displacements, and dynamic ground waveforms are quite different. Combining all the seismic constraints we can conclude a robust solution without a substantial trade-off of average slip-weakening distance, 0.6 m, in contrast to previous kinematical estimation of 5 m. To our best knowledge, this is the first time to robustly determine the slip-weakening distance on seismogenic fault from seismic observations. The well-constrained frictional parameters may be used for future dynamic models to assess seismic hazard, such as estimating the peak ground acceleration (PGA) etc. Similar approach could also be conducted for other great earthquakes, enabling broad estimations of the dynamic parameters in global perspectives that can better reveal the intrinsic physics of earthquakes.

Conditional, Time-Dependent Probabilities for Segmented Type-A Faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Gupta, Vipin

2008-01-01

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Stress transfer to the Denali and other regional faults from the M 9.2 Alaska earthquake of 1964

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bufe, C.G.

2004-01-01

Stress transfer from the great 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake is modeled on the Denali fault, including the Denali-Totschunda fault segments that ruptured in 2002, and on other regional fault systems where M 7.5 and larger earthquakes have occurred since 1900. The results indicate that analysis of Coulomb stress transfer from the dominant earthquake in a region is a potentially powerful tool in assessing time-varying earthquake hazard. Modeled Coulomb stress increases on the northern Denali and Totschunda faults from the great 1964 earthquake coincide with zones that ruptured in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, although stress on the Susitna Glacier thrust plane, where the 2002 event initiated, was decreased. A southeasterlytrending Coulomb stress transect along the right-lateral Totschunda-Fairweather-Queen Charlotte trend shows stress transfer from the 1964 event advancing slip on the Totschunda, Fairweather, and Queen Charlotte segments, including the southern Fairweather segment that ruptured in 1972. Stress transfer retarding right-lateral strike slip was observed from the southern part of the Totschunda fault to the northern end of the Fairweather fault (1958 rupture). This region encompasses a gap with shallow thrust faulting but with little evidence of strike-slip faulting connecting the segments to the northwest and southeast. Stress transfer toward failure was computed on the north-south trending right-lateral strike-slip faults in the Gulf of Alaska that ruptured in 1987 and 1988, with inhibitory stress changes at the northern end of the northernmost (1987) rupture. The northern Denali and Totschunda faults, including the zones that ruptured in the 2002 earthquakes, follow very closely (within 3%), for about 90??, an arc of a circle of radius 375 km. The center of this circle is within a few kilometers of the intersection at depth of the Patton Bay fault with the Alaskan megathrust. This inferred asperity edge may be the pole of counterclockwise rotation of the block south of the Denali fault. These observations suggest that the asperity and its recurrent rupture in great earthquakes as in 1964 may have influenced the tectonics of the region during the later stages of evolution of the Denali strike-slip fault system.

A N-S fossil transform fault reactivated by the March 2, 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; van der Lee, S.

2016-12-01

Warton Basin (WB) is characterized by N-S striking fossil transform faults and E-W trending extinct ridges. The 2016 Mw7.8 southwest of Sumatra earthquake, nearby the WB's center, was first imaged by back-projecting P-waves from three regional seismic networks in Europn, Japan, and Australia. Next, the rupture direction of the earthquake was further determined using the rupture directivity analysis to P-waves from the global seismic network (GSN). Finally, we inverting these GSN waveforms on a defined N-S striking vertical fault for a kinematic source model. The results show that the earthquake reactivates a 190 degree N-S striking vertical fossil transform fault and asymmetrically bilaterally ruptures a 65 km by 30 km asperity over 35 s. Specifically, the earthquake first bilaterally ruptures northward and southward at a speed of 1.0 km/s over the first 12 s, and then mainly rupture northward at a speed of 1.6 km/s. Compared with two previous M≥7.8 WB earthquakes, including the 2000 southern WB earthquake and 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra earthquake, the lower seismic energy radiation efficiency and slower rupture velicity of the 2016 earthquake indicate the rupture of the earthquake is probably controlled by the warmer ambient slab and tectonic stress regime.

Rupture threshold characterization of polymer-shelled ultrasound contrast agents subjected to static overpressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitnis, Parag V.; Lee, Paul; Mamou, Jonathan; Allen, John S.; Böhmer, Marcel; Ketterling, Jeffrey A.

2011-04-01

Polymer-shelled micro-bubbles are employed as ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and vesicles for targeted drug delivery. UCA-based delivery of the therapeutic payload relies on ultrasound-induced shell rupture. The fragility of two polymer-shelled UCAs manufactured by Point Biomedical or Philips Research was investigated by characterizing their response to static overpressure. The nominal diameters of Point and Philips UCAs were 3 μm and 2 μm, respectively. The UCAs were subjected to static overpressure in a glycerol-filled test chamber with a microscope-reticule lid. UCAs were reconstituted in 0.1 mL of water and added over the glycerol surface in contact with the reticule. A video-microscope imaged UCAs as glycerol was injected (5 mL/h) to vary the pressure from 2 to 180 kPa over 1 h. Neither UCA population responded to overpressure until the rupture threshold was exceeded, which resulted in abrupt destruction. The rupture data for both UCAs indicated three subclasses that exhibited different rupture behavior, although their mean diameters were not statistically different. The rupture pressures provided a measure of UCA fragility; the Philips UCAs were more resilient than Point UCAs. Results were compared to theoretical models of spherical shells under compression. Observed variations in rupture pressures are attributed to shell imperfections. These results may provide means to optimize polymeric UCAs for drug delivery and elucidate associated mechanisms.

The Quadriga Effect Revisited: Designing a “Safety Incision” to Prevent Tendon Repair Rupture and Gap Formation in a Canine Model In Vitro

PubMed Central

Giambini, Hugo; Ikeda, Jun; Amadio, Peter C.; An, Kai-Nan; Zhao, Chunfeng

2012-01-01

Loss of experimental animals due to tendon repair failure results in the need for additional animals to complete the study. We designed a relief proximal to the flexor digitorum profundus (FDP) tendon repair site to serve as a “safety incision” to prevent repair site ruptures and maximize safety incision-to-suture strength. The FDP tendons were dissected in 24 canine forepaws. The 2nd and 5th tendons were lacerated at the proximal interphalangeal joint level and sutured using a modified Kessler technique and peripheral running suture. Tendon width was measured where the FDP tendon separates into each individual digit and a safety incision, equal to the 2nd and 5th tendon widths, was performed 3, 4, or 5 mm (Groups 1, 2, and 3) proximal to the separation. The tendons were pulled at a rate of 1 mm/s until either the “safety incision” ruptured or the repair failed. There was no gap formation at the repair site in Groups 1 and 2. However, all Group 3 tendons failed by repair site rupture with the safety incision intact. An adequate safety incision to protect repair gap and rupture and maintain tendon tension for the FDP animal model should be about 4 mm from where the FDP tendon separates. PMID:20872585

Static Rupture Model of the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake from ALOS, ENVISAT, SPOT and GPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fialko, Y.; Gonzalez, A.; Gonzalez-Garcia, J. J.; Barbot, S.; Leprince, S.; Sandwell, D. T.; Agnew, D. C.

2010-12-01

The April 4, 2010 "Easter Sunday" earthquake on the US-Mexico border was the largest event to strike Southern California in the last 18 years. The earthquake occurred on a northwest trending fault close to, but not coincident with the identified 1892 Laguna Salada rupture. We investigate coseismic deformation due to the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery form ENVISAT and ALOS satellites, optical imagery from SPOT-5 satellite, and continuous and campaign GPS data. The earliest campaign postseismic GPS survey was conducted within days after the earthquake, and provided the near-field cosesmic offsets. Along-track SAR interferograms and amplitude cross-correlation of optical images reveal a relatively simple continuous fault trace with maximum offsets of the order of 3 meters. This is in contrast to the results of geological mapping that portrayed a complex broad zone of distributed faulting. Also, SAR data indicate that the rupture propagated bi-laterally from the epicenter near the town of Durango both to the North-West into the Cucapah mountains and to the South-East into the Mexically valley. The inferred South-East part of the rupture was subsequently field-checked and associated with several fresh scarps, although overall the earthquake fault does not have a conspicuous surface trace South-East of the hypocenter. It is worth noting that the 2010 earthquake propagated into stress shadows of prior events - the Laguna Salada earthquake that ruptured the North-West part of the fault in 1892, and several M6+ earthquakes that ruptured the South-East part of the fault over the last century. Analysis of the coseismic displacement field at the Earth's surface (in particular, the full 3-component displacement field retrieved from SAR and optical imagery) shows a pronounced asymmetry in horizontal displacements across both nodal planes. The maximum displacements are observed in the North-Eastern and South-Western quadrants. This pattern cannot be explained by oblique slip on a quasi-planar fault. Multi-parametric inversions of the space geodetic data suggest that the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred on a helix-shaped rupture, with Eastward dip in the Northern section and Westward dip in the Southern section. This interpretation is consistent with field observations of the surface rupture and aftershock data, and provides an explanation for a strong non-double-couple component suggested by the seismic moment tensor solution. The total geodetic moment of our best-fitting model is in a good agreement with the seismic moment. We will also discuss effects of the elastic structure on the inferred static rupture model, and observations of early postseismic deformation.

Predicting Strong Ground-Motion Seismograms for Magnitude 9 Cascadia Earthquakes Using 3D Simulations with High Stress Drop Sub-Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankel, A. D.; Wirth, E. A.; Stephenson, W. J.; Moschetti, M. P.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.

2015-12-01

We have produced broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone by combining synthetics from simulations with a 3D velocity model at low frequencies (≤ 1 Hz) with stochastic synthetics at high frequencies (≥ 1 Hz). We use a compound rupture model consisting of a set of M8 high stress drop sub-events superimposed on a background slip distribution of up to 20m that builds relatively slowly. The 3D simulations were conducted using a finite difference program and the finite element program Hercules. The high-frequency (≥ 1 Hz) energy in this rupture model is primarily generated in the portion of the rupture with the M8 sub-events. In our initial runs, we included four M7.9-8.2 sub-events similar to those that we used to successfully model the strong ground motions recorded from the 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake. At periods of 2-10 s, the 3D synthetics exhibit substantial amplification (about a factor of 2) for sites in the Puget Lowland and even more amplification (up to a factor of 5) for sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins, compared to rock sites outside of the Puget Lowland. This regional and more localized basin amplification found from the simulations is supported by observations from local earthquakes. There are substantial variations in the simulated M9 time histories and response spectra caused by differences in the hypocenter location, slip distribution, down-dip extent of rupture, coherence of the rupture front, and location of sub-events. We examined the sensitivity of the 3D synthetics to the velocity model of the Seattle basin. We found significant differences in S-wave focusing and surface wave conversions between a 3D model of the basin from a spatially-smoothed tomographic inversion of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities and a model that has an abrupt southern edge of the Seattle basin, as observed in seismic reflection profiles.

Rupture processes of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake and the 2011 Christchurch earthquake inferred from InSAR, strong motion and teleseismic datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S.; Koketsu, K.; Aoki, Y.

2014-12-01

The September 4, 2010, Canterbury earthquake with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.1 is a crustal earthquake in the South Island, New Zealand. The February 22, 2011, Christchurch earthquake (Mw=6.3) is the biggest aftershock of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake that is located at about 50 km to the east of the mainshock. Both earthquakes occurred on previously unrecognized faults. Field observations indicate that the rupture of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake reached the surface; the surface rupture with a length of about 30 km is located about 4 km south of the epicenter. Also various data including the aftershock distribution and strong motion seismograms suggest a very complex rupture process. For these reasons it is useful to investigate the complex rupture process using multiple data with various sensitivities to the rupture process. While previously published source models are based on one or two datasets, here we infer the rupture process with three datasets, InSAR, strong-motion, and teleseismic data. We first performed point source inversions to derive the focal mechanism of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake. Based on the focal mechanism, the aftershock distribution, the surface fault traces and the SAR interferograms, we assigned several source faults. We then performed the joint inversion to determine the rupture process of the 2010 Canterbury earthquake most suitable for reproducing all the datasets. The obtained slip distribution is in good agreement with the surface fault traces. We also performed similar inversions to reveal the rupture process of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Our result indicates steep dip and large up-dip slip. This reveals the observed large vertical ground motion around the source region is due to the rupture process, rather than the local subsurface structure. To investigate the effects of the 3-D velocity structure on characteristic strong motion seismograms of the two earthquakes, we plan to perform the inversion taking 3-D velocity structure of this region into account.

Rupture politique et enseignement de l'histoire en Afrique du Sud: Les manuels de l'enseignement primaire. (Political rupture and the teaching of history in South Africa: Handbooks of primary-level teaching.)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpentier, Claude

2000-01-01

Analyzes the content of South African history text books from the primary level upwards and from the 1980s to the most recent publications. The considerable changes in the content of these books seem to be based on two different theoretical models: the multicultural model and the notion of the universality of humanity. (Contains 40 references.)…

Remarkably Consistent Thermal State of the south Central Chile Subduction Zone from 36°S to 45°S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotman, H.; Spinelli, G. A.

2013-12-01

Delineating the rupture areas of large subduction zone earthquakes is necessary for understanding the controls on seismic and aseismic slip on faults. For the largest recorded earthquake, an event in south central Chile in 1960 with moment magnitude 9.5, the rupture area is only loosely defined due to limitations in the global seismic network at the time. The rupture extends ~900 km along strike on the margin. Coastal deformation is consistent with either a constant rupture width of ~200 km along the entire length, or a much narrower width (~115 km) for the southern half of the rupture. A southward narrowing of the seismogenic zone has been hypothesized to result from warming of the subduction zone to the south, where the subducting plate is younger. Here, we present results of thermal models at 36°S, 38°S, 43°S, and 45°S to examine potential along-strike changes the thermal state of the margin. We find that temperatures in the subduction zone are strongly affected by both fluid circulation in the high permeability upper oceanic crust and frictional heating on the plate boundary fault. Hydrothermal circulation preferentially cools transects with young subducting lithosphere; frictional heating preferentially warms transects with older subducting lithosphere. The combined effects of frictional heating and hydrothermal circulation increase decollement temperatures in the 36°S and 38°S transects by up to ~155°C, and decrease temperatures in the 45°S transect by up to ~150°C. In our preferred models, decollement temperatures 200 km landward of the trench in all four transects are ~350-400°C. This is consistent with a constant ~200 km wide seismogenic zone for the 1960 Mw 9.5 rupture, with decreasing slip magnitude in the southern half of the rupture.

Surface and Subsurface Fault Displacements from the September 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, B.; Furlong, K. P.; Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Quigley, M.

2012-12-01

On September 3, 2010 a Magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near Darfield, New Zealand. This was to be the first earthquake in an ongoing, damaging sequence near the city of Christchurch. The earthquake produced a surface rupture with measurable offsets of up to 5.3m along a 30km surface fault system. The spatial pattern of slip during this rupture has been determined by various groups using a range of approaches and several independent data sets. Surface fault rupture was measured in the field and fault slip at depth has been inferred from a seismologic finite fault model (FFM) and various geodetic observations including GPS and InSAR. Here we compare the observed segmented surface displacements with fault slip inferred from the other data. Measurements of the surface rupture show segmented faulting consistent with subsurface slip in the FFM. In the FFM, the main slip patch near the hypocenter can be directly correlated to the region of maximum surface displacement. The FFM and some evidence in the InSAR data also indicate that the Greendale fault system, the structure responsible for the bulk of the rupture, continues at depth closer towards Christchurch than is seen in surface rupture patterns. There is an additional 20km long patch with up to 3m of modeled slip seen in the eastern end of the inverted fault, offset to the south from the Greendale fault trace. This additional fault segment is consistent with a zone of aftershock activity of the main Darfield event, and with local patterns of strong motion. It thus appears that slip recorded at the surface does not describe the entire fault system. This eastward extension of the September rupture means that there is only a short segment of unruptured crust remaining along the entire fault system involved in the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Rupture Propagation of the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan, Earthquake Affected by Poroelastic Stress Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, J.; Wang, W.; Xiao, J.

2015-12-01

The 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan, earthquake occurred on the curved Hoshab fault. This fault connects with the north-south trending Chaman strike-slip fault to northeast, and with the west-east trending Makran thrust fault system to southwest. Teleseismic waveform inversion, incorporated with coseismic ground surface deformation data, show that the rupture of this earthquake nucleated around northeast segment of the fault, and then propagated southwestward along the northwest dipping Hoshab fault about 200 km, with the maximum coseismic displacement, featured mainly by purely left-lateral strike-slip motion, about 10 meters. In context of the India-Asia collision frame, associating with the fault geometry around this region, the rupture propagation of this earthquake seems to not follow an optimal path along the fault segment, because after nucleation of this event the Hoshab fault on the southwest of hypocenter of this earthquake is clamped by elastic stress change. Here, we build a three-dimensional finite-element model to explore the evolution of both stress and pore-pressure during the rupturing process of this earthquake. In the model, the crustal deformation is treated as undrained poroelastic media as described by Biot's theory, and the instantaneous rupture process is specified with split-node technique. By testing a reasonable range of parameters, including the coefficient of friction, the undrained Poisson's ratio, the permeability of the fault zone and the bulk crust, numerical results have shown that after the nucleation of rupture of this earthquake around the northeast of the Hoshab fault, the positive change of normal stress (clamping the fault) on the fault plane is greatly reduced by the instantaneous increase of pore pressure (unclamping the fault). This process could result in the change of Coulomb failure stress resolved on the Hoshab fault to be hastened, explaining the possible mechanism for southwestward propagation of rupture of the Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake along the Hoshab fault.

Source Parameters and Rupture Directivities of Earthquakes Within the Mendocino Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, A. A.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), a region in the Cascadia subduction zone, produces a sizable amount of earthquakes each year. Direct observations of the rupture properties are difficult to achieve due to the small magnitudes of most of these earthquakes and lack of offshore observations. The Cascadia Initiative (CI) project provides opportunities to look at the earthquakes in detail. Here we look at the transform plate boundary fault located in the MTJ, and measure source parameters of Mw≥4 earthquakes from both time-domain deconvolution and spectral analysis using empirical Green's function (EGF) method. The second-moment method is used to infer rupture length, width, and rupture velocity from apparent source duration measured at different stations. Brune's source model is used to infer corner frequency and spectral complexity for stacked spectral ratio. EGFs are selected based on their location relative to the mainshock, as well as the magnitude difference compared to the mainshock. For the transform fault, we first look at the largest earthquake recorded during the Year 4 CI array, a Mw5.72 event that occurred in January of 2015, and select two EGFs, a Mw1.75 and a Mw1.73 located within 5 km of the mainshock. This earthquake is characterized with at least two sub-events, with total duration of about 0.3 second and rupture length of about 2.78 km. The earthquake is rupturing towards west along the transform fault, and both source durations and corner frequencies show strong azimuthal variations, with anti-correlation between duration and corner frequency. The stacked spectral ratio from multiple stations with the Mw1.73 EGF event shows deviation from pure Brune's source model following the definition from Uchide and Imanishi [2016], likely due to near-field recordings with rupture complexity. We will further analyze this earthquake using more EGF events to test the reliability and stability of the results, and further analyze three other Mw≥4 earthquakes within the array.

Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

1996-01-01

A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

Different Achilles Tendon Pathologies Show Distinct Histological and Molecular Characteristics

PubMed Central

Minkwitz, Susann; Schmock, Aysha; Bormann, Nicole; Kurtoglu, Alper; Tsitsilonis, Serafeim; Manegold, Sebastian

2018-01-01

Reasons for the development of chronic tendon pathologies are still under debate and more basic knowledge is needed about the different diseases. The aim of the present study was therefore to characterize different acute and chronic Achilles tendon disorders. Achilles tendon samples from patients with chronic tendinopathy (n = 7), chronic ruptures (n = 6), acute ruptures (n = 13), and intact tendons (n = 4) were analyzed. The histological score investigating pathological changes was significantly increased in tendinopathy and chronic ruptures compared to acute ruptures. Inflammatory infiltration was detected by immunohistochemistry in all tendon pathology groups, but was significantly lower in tendinopathy compared to chronic ruptures. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) analysis revealed significantly altered expression of genes related to collagens and matrix modeling/remodeling (matrix metalloproteinases, tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases) in tendinopathy and chronic ruptures compared to intact tendons and/or acute ruptures. In all three tendon pathology groups markers of inflammation (interleukin (IL) 1β, tumor necrosis factor α, IL6, IL10, IL33, soluble ST2, transforming growth factor β1, cyclooxygenase 2), inflammatory cells (cluster of differentaition (CD) 3, CD68, CD80, CD206), fat metabolism (fatty acid binding protein 4, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ, CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein α, adiponectin), and innervation (protein gene product 9.5, growth associated protein 43, macrophage migration inhibitory factor) were detectable, but only in acute ruptures significantly regulated compared to intact tendons. The study gives an insight into structural and molecular changes of pathological processes in tendons and might be used to identify targets for future therapy of tendon pathologies. PMID:29385715

Meta-analysis of peak wall stress in ruptured, symptomatic and intact abdominal aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Khosla, S; Morris, D R; Moxon, J V; Walker, P J; Gasser, T C; Golledge, J

2014-10-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important cause of sudden death; however, there are currently incomplete means to predict the risk of AAA rupture. AAA peak wall stress (PWS) can be estimated using finite element analysis (FEA) methods from computed tomography (CT) scans. The question is whether AAA PWS can predict AAA rupture. The aim of this systematic review was to compare PWS in patients with ruptured and intact AAA. The MEDLINE database was searched on 25 May 2013. Case-control studies assessing PWS in asymptomatic intact, and acutely symptomatic or ruptured AAA from CT scans using FEA were included. Data were extracted independently. A random-effects model was used to calculate standard mean differences (SMDs) for PWS measurements. Nine studies assessing 348 individuals were identified and used in the meta-analysis. Results from 204 asymptomatic intact and 144 symptomatic or ruptured AAAs showed that PWS was significantly greater in the symptomatic/ ruptured AAAs compared with the asymptomatic intact AAAs (SMD 0·95, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·71 to 1·18; P < 0·001). The findings remained significant after adjustment for mean systolic blood pressure, standardized at 120 mmHg (SMD 0·68, 0·39 to 0·96; P < 0·001). Minimal heterogeneity between studies was noted (I(2)  = 0 per cent). This study suggests that PWS is greater in symptomatic or ruptured AAA than in asymptomatic intact AAA. © 2014 BJS Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rupture and Adaptation: British Technical Expertise to the Singapore Polytechnic and the Transition to a Nation-State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seng, Loh Kah

2015-01-01

The Singapore Polytechnic underwent a period of both rupture and adaptation as British advisers worked with the post-colonial government to facilitate technical education reform and Singapore's transition to a nation-state. Established in 1958 and based on the metropolitan model, the Singapore Polytechnic constituted an imperial project for…

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witter, Robert C.; Zhang, Yinglong J.; Wang, Kelin; Priest, George R.; Goldfinger, Chris; Stimely, Laura; English, John T.; Ferro, Paul A.

2013-01-01

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

In Vitro Spoilation of Silicone-Hydrogel Soft Contact Lenses in a Model-Blink Cell.

PubMed

Peng, Cheng-Chun; Fajardo, Neil P; Razunguzwa, Trust; Radke, Clayton J

2015-07-01

We developed an in vitro model-blink cell that reproduces the mechanism of in vivo fouling of soft contact lenses. In the model-blink cell, model tear lipid directly contacts the lens surface after forced aqueous rupture, mirroring the pre-lens tear-film breakup during interblink. Soft contact lenses are attached to a Teflon holder and immersed in artificial tear solution with protein, salts, and mucins. Artificial tear-lipid solution is spread over the air/tear interface as a duplex lipid layer. The aqueous tear film is periodically ruptured and reformed by withdrawing and reinjecting tear solution into the cell, mimicking the blink-rupture process. Fouled deposits appear on the lenses after cycling, and their compositions and spatial distributions are subsequently analyzed by optical microscopy, laser ablation electrospray ionization mass spectrometry, and two-photon fluorescence confocal scanning laser microscopy. Discrete deposit (white) spots with an average size of 20 to 300 μm are observed on the studied lenses, confirming what is seen in vivo and validating the in vitro model-blink cell. Targeted lipids (cholesterol) and proteins (albumin from bovine serum) are identified in the discrete surface deposits. Both lipid and protein occur simultaneously in the surface deposits and overlap with the white spots observed by optical microscopy. Additionally, lipid and protein penetrate into the bulk of tested silicone-hydrogel lenses, likely attributed to the bicontinuous microstructure of oleophilic silicone and hydrophilic polymer phases of the lens. In vitro spoilation of soft contact lenses is successfully achieved by the model-blink cell confirming the tear rupture/deposition mechanism of lens fouling. The model-blink cell provides a reliable laboratory tool for screening new antifouling lens materials, surface coatings, and care solutions.

Numerical comparisons of ground motion predictions with kinematic rupture modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Y. O.; Zurek, B.; Liu, F.; deMartin, B.; Lacasse, M. D.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in large-scale wave simulators allow for the computation of seismograms at unprecedented levels of detail and for areas sufficiently large to be relevant to small regional studies. In some instances, detailed information of the mechanical properties of the subsurface has been obtained from seismic exploration surveys, well data, and core analysis. Using kinematic rupture modeling, this information can be used with a wave propagation simulator to predict the ground motion that would result from an assumed fault rupture. The purpose of this work is to explore the limits of wave propagation simulators for modeling ground motion in different settings, and in particular, to explore the numerical accuracy of different methods in the presence of features that are challenging to simulate such as topography, low-velocity surface layers, and shallow sources. In the main part of this work, we use a variety of synthetic three-dimensional models and compare the relative costs and benefits of different numerical discretization methods in computing the seismograms of realistic-size models. The finite-difference method, the discontinuous-Galerkin method, and the spectral-element method are compared for a range of synthetic models having different levels of complexity such as topography, large subsurface features, low-velocity surface layers, and the location and characteristics of fault ruptures represented as an array of seismic sources. While some previous studies have already demonstrated that unstructured-mesh methods can sometimes tackle complex problems (Moczo et al.), we investigate the trade-off between unstructured-mesh methods and regular-grid methods for a broad range of models and source configurations. Finally, for comparison, our direct simulation results are briefly contrasted with those predicted by a few phenomenological ground-motion prediction equations, and a workflow for accurately predicting ground motion is proposed.

Fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, inferred from GPS and InSAR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Yongge; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Bürgmann, Roland; Sun, Jianbao; Wang, Min

2017-02-01

We revisit the problem of coseismic rupture of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Precise determination of the fault structure and slip distribution provides critical information about the mechanical behaviour of the fault system and earthquake rupture. We use all the geodetic data available, craft a more realistic Earth structure and fault model compared to previous studies, and employ a nonlinear inversion scheme to optimally solve for the fault geometry and slip distribution. Compared to a homogeneous elastic half-space model and laterally uniform layered models, adopting separate layered elastic structure models on both sides of the Beichuan fault significantly improved data fitting. Our results reveal that: (1) The Beichuan fault is listric in shape, with near surface fault dip angles increasing from ˜36° at the southwest end to ˜83° at the northeast end of the rupture. (2) The fault rupture style changes from predominantly thrust at the southwest end to dextral at the northeast end of the fault rupture. (3) Fault slip peaks near the surface for most parts of the fault, with ˜8.4 m thrust and ˜5 m dextral slip near Hongkou and ˜6 m thrust and ˜8.4 m dextral slip near Beichuan, respectively. (4) The peak slips are located around fault geometric complexities, suggesting that earthquake style and rupture propagation were determined by fault zone geometric barriers. Such barriers exist primarily along restraining left stepping discontinuities of the dextral-compressional fault system. (5) The seismic moment released on the fault above 20 km depth is 8.2×1021 N m, corresponding to an Mw7.9 event. The seismic moments released on the local slip concentrations are equivalent to events of Mw7.5 at Yingxiu-Hongkou, Mw7.3 at Beichuan-Pingtong, Mw7.2 near Qingping, Mw7.1 near Qingchuan, and Mw6.7 near Nanba, respectively. (6) The fault geometry and kinematics are consistent with a model in which crustal deformation at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau is decoupled by differential motion across a decollement in the mid crust, above which deformation is dominated by brittle reverse faulting and below which deformation occurs by viscous horizontal shortening and vertical thickening.

Anomalies of rupture velocity in deep earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, M.; Yagi, Y.

2010-12-01

Explaining deep seismicity is a long-standing challenge in earth science. Deeper than 300 km, the occurrence rate of earthquakes with depth remains at a low level until ~530 km depth, then rises until ~600 km, finally terminate near 700 km. Given the difficulty of estimating fracture properties and observing the stress field in the mantle transition zone (410-660 km), the seismic source processes of deep earthquakes are the most important information for understanding the distribution of deep seismicity. However, in a compilation of seismic source models of deep earthquakes, the source parameters for individual deep earthquakes are quite varied [Frohlich, 2006]. Rupture velocities for deep earthquakes estimated using seismic waveforms range from 0.3 to 0.9Vs, where Vs is the shear wave velocity, a considerably wider range than the velocities for shallow earthquakes. The uncertainty of seismic source models prevents us from determining the main characteristics of the rupture process and understanding the physical mechanisms of deep earthquakes. Recently, the back projection method has been used to derive a detailed and stable seismic source image from dense seismic network observations [e.g., Ishii et al., 2005; Walker et al., 2005]. Using this method, we can obtain an image of the seismic source process from the observed data without a priori constraints or discarding parameters. We applied the back projection method to teleseismic P-waveforms of 24 large, deep earthquakes (moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7.0, depth ≥ 300 km) recorded since 1994 by the Data Management Center of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS-DMC) and reported in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) catalog, and constructed seismic source models of deep earthquakes. By imaging the seismic rupture process for a set of recent deep earthquakes, we found that the rupture velocities are less than about 0.6Vs except in the depth range of 530 to 600 km. This is consistent with the depth variation of deep seismicity: it peaks between about 530 and 600 km, where the fast rupture earthquakes (greater than 0.7Vs) are observed. Similarly, aftershock productivity is particularly low from 300 to 550 km depth and increases markedly at depth greater than 550 km [e.g., Persh and Houston, 2004]. We propose that large fracture surface energy (Gc) value for deep earthquakes generally prevent the acceleration of dynamic rupture propagation and generation of earthquakes between 300 and 700 km depth, whereas small Gc value in the exceptional depth range promote dynamic rupture propagation and explain the seismicity peak near 600 km.

Turbulent breakage of ductile aggregates.

PubMed

Marchioli, Cristian; Soldati, Alfredo

2015-05-01

In this paper we study breakage rate statistics of small colloidal aggregates in nonhomogeneous anisotropic turbulence. We use pseudospectral direct numerical simulation of turbulent channel flow and Lagrangian tracking to follow the motion of the aggregates, modeled as sub-Kolmogorov massless particles. We focus specifically on the effects produced by ductile rupture: This rupture is initially activated when fluctuating hydrodynamic stresses exceed a critical value, σ>σ(cr), and is brought to completion when the energy absorbed by the aggregate meets the critical breakage value. We show that ductile rupture breakage rates are significantly reduced with respect to the case of instantaneous brittle rupture (i.e., breakage occurs as soon as σ>σ(cr)). These discrepancies are due to the different energy values at play as well as to the statistical features of energy distribution in the anisotropic turbulence case examined.

Creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeow, Y. T.

1980-01-01

A 'material modeling' methodology for predicting the creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites is proposed. In this approach the parameters (obtained from short-term tests) required to make the predictions are the three principal creep compliance master curves and their corresponding quasi-static strengths tested at room temperature (22 C). Using these parameters in conjunction with a failure criterion, creep rupture envelopes can be generated for any combination of in-plane loading conditions and ambient temperature. The analysis was validated experimentally for one composite system, the T300/934 graphite-epoxy system. This was done by performing short-term creep tests (to generate the principal creep compliance master curves with the time-temperature superposition principle) and relatively long-term creep rupture tensile tests of off-axis specimens at 180 C. Good to reasonable agreement between experimental and analytical results is observed.

Dynamic rupture simulation of the 2017 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake: Is spontaneous multi-fault rupture expected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, R.; Kaneko, Y.

2017-12-01

The coseismic rupture of the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake propagated over the distance of 150 km along the NE-SW striking fault system in the northern South Island of New Zealand. The analysis of In-SAR, GPS and field observations (Hamling et al., 2017) revealed that the most of the rupture occurred along the previously mapped active faults, involving more than seven major fault segments. These fault segments, mostly dipping to northwest, are distributed in a quite complex manner, manifested by fault branching and step-over structures. Back-projection rupture imaging shows that the rupture appears to jump between three sub-parallel fault segments in sequence from the south to north (Kaiser et al., 2017). The rupture seems to be terminated on the Needles fault in Cook Strait. One of the main questions is whether this multi-fault rupture can be naturally explained with the physical basis. In order to understand the conditions responsible for the complex rupture process, we conduct fully dynamic rupture simulations that account for 3-D non-planar fault geometry embedded in an elastic half-space. The fault geometry is constrained by previous In-SAR observations and geological inferences. The regional stress field is constrained by the result of stress tensor inversion based on focal mechanisms (Balfour et al., 2005). The fault is governed by a relatively simple, slip-weakening friction law. For simplicity, the frictional parameters are uniformly distributed as there is no direct estimate of them except for a shallow portion of the Kekerengu fault (Kaneko et al., 2017). Our simulations show that the rupture can indeed propagate through the complex fault system once it is nucleated at the southernmost segment. The simulated slip distribution is quite heterogeneous, reflecting the nature of non-planar fault geometry, fault branching and step-over structures. We find that optimally oriented faults exhibit larger slip, which is consistent with the slip model of Hamling et al. (2017). We conclude that the first order characteristics of this event may be interpreted by the effect of irregularity in the fault geometry.

Crustal deformation in Great California Earthquake cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Victor C.; Rice, James R.

1987-01-01

A model in which coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model is proposed for computation of the periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike-slip earthquakes. The model is found to provide a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading than do simpler kinematic models. Parameters are chosen to model the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas ruptures, and predictions are found to be consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces. Results indicate that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps the crust-mantle transition zone.

Source parameters controlling the generation and propagation of potential local tsunamis along the cascadia margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.; Yoshioka, S.

1996-01-01

The largest uncertainty in assessing hazards from local tsunamis along the Cascadia margin is estimating the possible earthquake source parameters. We investigate which source parameters exert the largest influence on tsunami generation and determine how each parameter affects the amplitude of the local tsunami. The following source parameters were analyzed: (1) type of faulting characteristic of the Cascadia subduction zone, (2) amount of slip during rupture, (3) slip orientation, (4) duration of rupture, (5) physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and (6) influence of secondary faulting. The effect of each of these source parameters on the quasi-static displacement of the ocean floor is determined by using elastic three-dimensional, finite-element models. The propagation of the resulting tsunami is modeled both near the coastline using the two-dimensional (x-t) Peregrine equations that includes the effects of dispersion and near the source using the three-dimensional (x-y-t) linear long-wave equations. The source parameters that have the largest influence on local tsunami excitation are the shallowness of rupture and the amount of slip. In addition, the orientation of slip has a large effect on the directivity of the tsunami, especially for shallow dipping faults, which consequently has a direct influence on the length of coastline inundated by the tsunami. Duration of rupture, physical properties of the accretionary wedge, and secondary faulting all affect the excitation of tsunamis but to a lesser extent than the shallowness of rupture and the amount and orientation of slip. Assessment of the severity of the local tsunami hazard should take into account that relatively large tsunamis can be generated from anomalous 'tsunami earthquakes' that rupture within the accretionary wedge in comparison to interplate thrust earthquakes of similar magnitude. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Modeling earthquake magnitudes from injection-induced seismicity on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, J.; Dunham, E. M.; Segall, P.

2017-12-01

It is an open question whether perturbations to the in-situ stress field due to fluid injection affect the magnitudes of induced earthquakes. It has been suggested that characteristics such as the total injected fluid volume control the size of induced events (e.g., Baisch et al., 2010; Shapiro et al., 2011). On the other hand, Van der Elst et al. (2016) argue that the size distribution of induced earthquakes follows Gutenberg-Richter, the same as tectonic events. Numerical simulations support the idea that ruptures nucleating inside regions with high shear-to-effective normal stress ratio may not propagate into regions with lower stress (Dieterich et al., 2015; Schmitt et al., 2015), however, these calculations are done on geometrically smooth faults. Fang & Dunham (2013) show that rupture length on geometrically rough faults is variable, but strongly dependent on background shear/effective normal stress. In this study, we use a 2-D elasto-dynamic rupture simulator that includes rough fault geometry and off-fault plasticity (Dunham et al., 2011) to simulate earthquake ruptures under realistic conditions. We consider aggregate results for faults with and without stress perturbations due to fluid injection. We model a uniform far-field background stress (with local perturbations around the fault due to geometry), superimpose a poroelastic stress field in the medium due to injection, and compute the effective stress on the fault as inputs to the rupture simulator. Preliminary results indicate that even minor stress perturbations on the fault due to injection can have a significant impact on the resulting distribution of rupture lengths, but individual results are highly dependent on the details of the local stress perturbations on the fault due to geometric roughness.

Quartz crystal microbalance as a sensing active element for rupture scanning within frequency band.

PubMed

Dultsev, F N; Kolosovsky, E A

2011-02-14

A new method based on the use of quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) as an active sensing element is developed, optimized and tested in a model system to measure the rupture force and deduce size distribution of nanoparticles. As suggested by model predictions, the QCM is shaped as a strip. The ratio of rupture signals at the second and the third harmonics versus the geometric position of a body on QCM surface is investigated theoretically. Recommendations concerning the use of the method for measuring the nanoparticle size distribution are presented. It is shown experimentally for an ensemble of test particles with a characteristic size within 20-30 nm that the proposed method allows one to determine particle size distribution. On the basis of the position and value of the measured rupture signal, a histogram of particle size distribution and percentage of each size fraction were determined. The main merits of the bond-rupture method are its rapid response, simplicity and the ability to discriminate between specific and non-specific interactions. The method is highly sensitive with respect to mass (the sensitivity is generally dependent on the chemical nature of receptor and analyte and may reach 8×10(-14) g mm(-2)) and applicable to measuring rupture forces either for weak bonds, for example hydrogen bonds, or for strong covalent bonds (10(-11)-10(-9) N). This procedure may become a good alternative for the existing methods, such as AFM or optical methods of determining biological objects, and win a broad range of applications both in laboratory research and in biosensing for various purposes. Possible applications include medicine, diagnostics, environmental or agricultural monitoring. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rupture processes of the 2012 September 5 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica earthquake constrained by improved geodetic and seismological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chengli; Zheng, Yong; Xiong, Xiong; Wang, Rongjiang; López, Allan; Li, Jun

2015-10-01

On 2012 September 5, the anticipated interplate thrust earthquake ruptured beneath the Nicoya peninsula in northwestern Costa Rica close to the Middle America trench, with a magnitude Mw 7.6. Extensive co-seismic observations were provided by dense near-field strong ground motion, Global Positioning Systems (GPS) networks and teleseismic recordings from global seismic networks. The wealthy data sets available for the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya earthquake provide a unique opportunity to investigate the details of the rupture process of this earthquake. By implementing a non-linear joint inversion with high-rate GPS waveform, more static GPS offsets, strong-motion data and teleseismic body waveform, we obtained a robust and accurate rupture model of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya earthquake. The earthquake is dominantly a pure thrust component with a maximum slip of 3.5 m, and the main large slip patch is located below the hypocentre, spanning ˜50 km along dip and ˜110 km along strike. The static stress drop is about 3.4 MPa. The total seismic moment of our preferred model is 3.46 × 1020 N m, which gives Mw = 7.6. Due to the fast rupture velocity, most of the seismic moment was released within 70 s. The largest slip patch directly overlaps the interseismic locked region identified by geodetic observations and extends downdip to the intersection with the upper plate Moho. We also find that there is a complementary pattern between the distribution of aftershocks and the co-seismic rupture; most aftershocks locate in the crust of the upper plate and are possibly induced by the stress change caused by the large slip patch.

Sources of shaking and flooding during the Tohoku-Oki earthquake: a mixture of rupture styles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wei, Shengji; Graves, Robert; Helmberger, Don; Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Jiang, Junle

2012-01-01

Modeling strong ground motions from great subduction zone earthquakes is one of the great challenges of computational seismology. To separate the rupture characteristics from complexities caused by 3D sub-surface geology requires an extraordinary data set such as provided by the recent Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Here we combine deterministic inversion and dynamically guided forward simulation methods to model over one thousand high-rate GPS and strong motion observations from 0 to 0.25 Hz across the entire Honshu Island. Our results display distinct styles of rupture with a deeper generic interplate event (~Mw8.5) transitioning to a shallow tsunamigenic earthquake (~Mw9.0) at about 25 km depth in a process driven by a strong dynamic weakening mechanism, possibly thermal pressurization. This source model predicts many important features of the broad set of seismic, geodetic and seafloor observations providing a major advance in our understanding of such great natural hazards.

Source Process of the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki Earthquake Derived from Near-fault Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoi, S.; Sekiguchi, H.; Morikawa, N.; Ozawa, T.; Kunugi, T.; Shirasaka, M.

2007-12-01

The 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake occurred on July 16th, 2007, 10:13 JST. We performed a multi- time window linear waveform inversion analysis (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983) to estimate the rupture process from the near fault strong motion data of 14 stations from K-NET, KiK-net, F-net, JMA, and Niigata prefecture. The fault plane for the mainshock has not been clearly determined yet from the aftershock distribution, so that we performed two waveform inversions for north-west dipping fault (Model A) and south-east dipping fault (Model B). Their strike, dip, and rake are set to those of the moment tensor solutions by F-net. Fault plane model of 30 km length by 24 km width is set to cover aftershock distribution within 24 hours after the mainshock. Theoretical Green's functions were calculated by the discrete wavenumber method (Bouchon, 1981) and the R/T matrix method (Kennett, 1983) with the different stratified medium for each station based on the velocity structure including the information form the reflection survey and borehole logging data. Convolution of moving dislocation was introduced to represent the rupture propagation in an each subfault (Sekiguchi et al., 2002). The observed acceleration records were integrated into velocity except of F-net velocity data, and bandpass filtered between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz. We solved least-squared equation to obtain slip amount of each time window on each subfault to minimize squared residual of the waveform fitting between observed and synthetic waveforms. Both models provide moment magnitudes of 6.7. Regarding Model A, we obtained large slip in the south-west deeper part of the rupture starting point, which is close to Kashiwazaki-city. The second or third velocity pulses of observed velocity waveforms seem to be composed of slip from the asperity. Regarding Model B, we obtained large slip in the southwest shallower part of the rupture starting point, which is also close to Kashiwazaki-city. In both models, we found small slip near the rupture starting point, and largest slip at about ten kilometer in the south-west of the rupture starting point with the maximum slip of 2.3 and 2.5 m for Models A and B, respectively. The difference of the residual between observed and synthetic waveforms for both models is not significant, therefore it is difficult to conclude which fault plane is appropriate to explain. The estimated large-slip regions in the inverted source models with the Models A and B are located near the cross point of the two fault plane models, which should have similar radiation pattern. This situation may be one of the reasons why judgment of the fault plane orientation is such difficult. We need careful examinations not only strong motion data but also geodetic data to further explore the fault orientation and the source process of this earthquake.

Azimuthal Dependence of the Ground Motion Variability from Scenario Modeling of the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa, California, Earthquake Using an Advanced Kinematic Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallovič, F.

2017-09-01

Strong ground motion simulations require physically plausible earthquake source model. Here, I present the application of such a kinematic model introduced originally by Ruiz et al. (Geophys J Int 186:226-244, 2011). The model is constructed to inherently provide synthetics with the desired omega-squared spectral decay in the full frequency range. The source is composed of randomly distributed overlapping subsources with fractal number-size distribution. The position of the subsources can be constrained by prior knowledge of major asperities (stemming, e.g., from slip inversions), or can be completely random. From earthquake physics point of view, the model includes positive correlation between slip and rise time as found in dynamic source simulations. Rupture velocity and rise time follows local S-wave velocity profile, so that the rupture slows down and rise times increase close to the surface, avoiding unrealistically strong ground motions. Rupture velocity can also have random variations, which result in irregular rupture front while satisfying the causality principle. This advanced kinematic broadband source model is freely available and can be easily incorporated into any numerical wave propagation code, as the source is described by spatially distributed slip rate functions, not requiring any stochastic Green's functions. The source model has been previously validated against the observed data due to the very shallow unilateral 2014 Mw6 South Napa, California, earthquake; the model reproduces well the observed data including the near-fault directivity (Seism Res Lett 87:2-14, 2016). The performance of the source model is shown here on the scenario simulations for the same event. In particular, synthetics are compared with existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), emphasizing the azimuthal dependence of the between-event ground motion variability. I propose a simple model reproducing the azimuthal variations of the between-event ground motion variability, providing an insight into possible refinement of GMPEs' functional forms.

Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Heaton, T.H.

2008-01-01

We study how enforcing self-consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event. We explore features of rupture dynamics that (1) lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and (2) maintain these conditions following rupture, so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events. Our three-dimensional fmite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical, planar strike-slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop (initial shear stress) and breakdown work (fracture energy) are spatially heterogeneous. In these models the breakdown work is on the order of MJ/m2, which is comparable to the radiated energy. These conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model. An alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence, which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models. We hypothesize that self-consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self-sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kJ/M2. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Heterogeneous rupture in the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700 inferred from coastal subsidence estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Pei-Ling; Engelhart, Simon E.; Wang, Kelin; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.

2013-01-01

Past earthquake rupture models used to explain paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during the great A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake have assumed a uniform slip distribution along the megathrust. Here we infer heterogeneous slip for the Cascadia margin in A.D. 1700 that is analogous to slip distributions during instrumentally recorded great subduction earthquakes worldwide. The assumption of uniform distribution in previous rupture models was due partly to the large uncertainties of then available paleoseismic data used to constrain the models. In this work, we use more precise estimates of subsidence in 1700 from detailed tidal microfossil studies. We develop a 3-D elastic dislocation model that allows the slip to vary both along strike and in the dip direction. Despite uncertainties in the updip and downdip slip extensions, the more precise subsidence estimates are best explained by a model with along-strike slip heterogeneity, with multiple patches of high-moment release separated by areas of low-moment release. For example, in A.D. 1700, there was very little slip near Alsea Bay, Oregon (~44.4°N), an area that coincides with a segment boundary previously suggested on the basis of gravity anomalies. A probable subducting seamount in this area may be responsible for impeding rupture during great earthquakes. Our results highlight the need for more precise, high-quality estimates of subsidence or uplift during prehistoric earthquakes from the coasts of southern British Columbia, northern Washington (north of 47°N), southernmost Oregon, and northern California (south of 43°N), where slip distributions of prehistoric earthquakes are poorly constrained.

Quasi-dynamic versus fully dynamic simulations of earthquakes and aseismic slip with and without enhanced coseismic weakening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Marion Y.; Lapusta, Nadia; Noda, Hiroyuki; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2014-03-01

Physics-based numerical simulations of earthquakes and slow slip, coupled with field observations and laboratory experiments, can, in principle, be used to determine fault properties and potential fault behaviors. Because of the computational cost of simulating inertial wave-mediated effects, their representation is often simplified. The quasi-dynamic (QD) approach approximately accounts for inertial effects through a radiation damping term. We compare QD and fully dynamic (FD) simulations by exploring the long-term behavior of rate-and-state fault models with and without additional weakening during seismic slip. The models incorporate a velocity-strengthening (VS) patch in a velocity-weakening (VW) zone, to consider rupture interaction with a slip-inhibiting heterogeneity. Without additional weakening, the QD and FD approaches generate qualitatively similar slip patterns with quantitative differences, such as slower slip velocities and rupture speeds during earthquakes and more propensity for rupture arrest at the VS patch in the QD cases. Simulations with additional coseismic weakening produce qualitatively different patterns of earthquakes, with near-periodic pulse-like events in the FD simulations and much larger crack-like events accompanied by smaller events in the QD simulations. This is because the FD simulations with additional weakening allow earthquake rupture to propagate at a much lower level of prestress than the QD simulations. The resulting much larger ruptures in the QD simulations are more likely to propagate through the VS patch, unlike for the cases with no additional weakening. Overall, the QD approach should be used with caution, as the QD simulation results could drastically differ from the true response of the physical model considered.

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murru, Maura; Akinci, Aybige; Falcone, Guiseppe; Pucci, Stefano; Console, Rodolfo; Parsons, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw=7.0 to Mw=8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Ball-and-socket tectonic rotation during the 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, W. D.; Hayes, G. P.; Briggs, R. W.; Gold, R. D.; Bilham, R.

2014-10-01

The September 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake ruptured a ∼200-km-long segment of the curved Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan with 10 ± 0.2 m of peak sinistral and ∼ 1.7 ± 0.8 m of dip slip. This rupture is unusual because the fault dips 60 ± 15° towards the focus of a small circle centered in northwest Pakistan, and, despite a 30° increase in obliquity along strike, the ratios of strike and dip slip remain relatively uniform. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic source inversions quantify a bilateral rupture that propagated rapidly at shallow depths from a transtensional jog near the northern end of the rupture. Static friction prior to rupture was unusually weak (μ < 0.05), and friction may have approached zero during dynamic rupture. Here we show that the inward-dipping Hoshab fault defines the northern rim of a structural unit in southeast Makran that rotates - akin to a 2-D ball-and-socket joint - counter-clockwise in response to India's penetration into the Eurasian plate. This rotation accounts for complexity in the Chaman fault system and, in principle, reduces seismic potential near Karachi; nonetheless, these findings highlight deficiencies in strong ground motion equations and tectonic models that invoke Anderson-Byerlee faulting predictions.

Ball-and-socket tectonic rotation during the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Briggs, Richard W.; Gold, Ryan D.; Bilham, R.

2014-01-01

The September 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake ruptured a ∼200-km-long segment of the curved Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan with 10±0.2 m of peak sinistral and ∼1.7±0.8 m of dip slip. This rupture is unusual because the fault dips 60±15° towards the focus of a small circle centered in northwest Pakistan, and, despite a 30° increase in obliquity along strike, the ratios of strike and dip slip remain relatively uniform. Surface displacements and geodetic and teleseismic source inversions quantify a bilateral rupture that propagated rapidly at shallow depths from a transtensional jog near the northern end of the rupture. Static friction prior to rupture was unusually weak (μ<0.05), and friction may have approached zero during dynamic rupture. Here we show that the inward-dipping Hoshab fault defines the northern rim of a structural unit in southeast Makran that rotates – akin to a 2-D ball-and-socket joint – counter-clockwise in response to India's penetration into the Eurasian plate. This rotation accounts for complexity in the Chaman fault system and, in principle, reduces seismic potential near Karachi; nonetheless, these findings highlight deficiencies in strong ground motion equations and tectonic models that invoke Anderson–Byerlee faulting predictions.

Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 MW=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, S.; Stein, R.S.

2000-01-01

The 1998 Antarctic plate earthquake produced clusters of aftershocks (MW ??? 6.4) up to 80 km from the fault rupture and up to 100 km beyond the end of the rupture. Because the mainshock occurred far from the nearest plate boundary and the nearest recorded earthquake, it is unusually isolated from the stress perturbations caused by other earthquakes, making it a good candidate for stress transfer analysis despite the absence of near-field observations. We tested whether the off-fault aftershocks lie in regions brought closer to Coulomb failure by the main rupture. We evaluated four published source models for the main rupture. In fourteen tests using different aftershocks sets and allowing the rupture sources to be shifted within their uncertainties, 6 were significant at ??? 99% confidence, 3 at > 95% confidence, and 5 were not significant (< 95% level). For the 9 successful tests, the stress at the site of the aftershocks was typically increased by 1-2 bars (0.1-0.2 MPa). Thus the Antarctic plate event, together with the 1992 MW=7.3 Landers and its MW=6.5 Big Bear aftershock 40 km from the main fault, supply evidence that small stress changes might indeed trigger large earthquakes far from the main fault rupture.

The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake sequence: Partial rupture of a fully locked Mentawai patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, R.; Hill, E.; Feng, L.; Wei, S.; Barbot, S.; Lindsey, E.; WANG, X.; Chen, W.; Bannerjee, P.; Hermawan, I.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2016-12-01

The Mentawai patch is a seismic gap along the Sumatra subduction zone that has not ruptured completely over the last decade. This is worrying because coral colonies of the Mentawai islands show that over the last 700 years the Mentawai patch ruptured in a sequence of great earthquake (Mw > 8.5) about every two centuries. In September 2007, the Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake ruptured the southern section of the Mentawai patch. The event was then followed by two Mw >= 7 aftershocks. Five months later, the 2008 Mw 7.2 earthquake ruptured a small asperity a little further north. The event ruptured a small area in the middle portion of the Mentawai patch, where the megathrust had been estimated as highly coupled. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of Mw 6.5 one day before and two M 6 aftershocks that occurred on the same day as the mainshock event. However, the whole earthquake sequence ruptured only a confined area on the megathrust and failed to wake up the sleeping giant. We have yet to explain why the 2008 event did not break more asperities and develop into one gargantuan earthquake. In this study, we use geodetic and seismic data to investigate the 2008 earthquake, its following afterslip, and its fore- and after-shocks. First, we jointly invert static and high-rate cGPS, InSAR and teleseismic data in a joint inversion for a co-seismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Second, we invert teleseismic data alone to develop slip models for the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock events. Third, we use the Cut-And-Paste (CAP) technique to estimate a more accurate depths for the 2008 earthquake sequence. Finally, we use six years of cGPS data, from 2008 to 2013, to develop a model for afterslip. Our preliminary results show 2 meters of peak coseismic slip for the mainshock. In addition, 1 meter of peak afterslip overlap with the coseismic slip model. The total estimated slip is far smaller than expected from the accumulated strain that has been stored in the Mentawai patch since the last earthquake in 1833. Thus, the likelihood that the Mentawai patch will generate another great earthquake in the near future remains high. But the possibility of releasing the accumulated strain piecemeal in smaller earthquakes cannot be ruled out.

Performance of Irikura recipe rupture model generator in earthquake ground motion simulations with Graves and Pitarka hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pitarka, Arben; Graves, Robert; Irikura, Kojiro; Miyake, Hiroe; Rodgers, Arthur

2017-01-01

We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (Pure and Applied Geophysics 168(2011):85–104, 2011) (IM2011) asperity-based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(5A):2095–2123, 2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0–20 Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with both IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project (NGA-West2) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1–10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-fault distances (<12 km) and at long periods (>1 s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1–3 s where the IM2011 motions are about 20–30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1–3 s bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study. We concluded that IM2011 rupture generator performs well in ground motion simulations using Graves and Pitarka hybrid method. Therefore, we recommend it to be considered for inclusion into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform.

Performance of Irikura Recipe Rupture Model Generator in Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations with Graves and Pitarka Hybrid Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitarka, Arben; Graves, Robert; Irikura, Kojiro; Miyake, Hiroe; Rodgers, Arthur

2017-09-01

We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (Pure and Applied Geophysics 168(2011):85-104, 2011) (IM2011) asperity-based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(5A):2095-2123, 2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0-20 Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with both IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project (NGA-West2) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1-10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-fault distances (<12 km) and at long periods (>1 s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1-3 s where the IM2011 motions are about 20-30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1-3 s bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study. We concluded that IM2011 rupture generator performs well in ground motion simulations using Graves and Pitarka hybrid method. Therefore, we recommend it to be considered for inclusion into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform.

CFD: computational fluid dynamics or confounding factor dissemination? The role of hemodynamics in intracranial aneurysm rupture risk assessment.

PubMed

Xiang, J; Tutino, V M; Snyder, K V; Meng, H

2014-10-01

Image-based computational fluid dynamics holds a prominent position in the evaluation of intracranial aneurysms, especially as a promising tool to stratify rupture risk. Current computational fluid dynamics findings correlating both high and low wall shear stress with intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture puzzle researchers and clinicians alike. These conflicting findings may stem from inconsistent parameter definitions, small datasets, and intrinsic complexities in intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture. In Part 1 of this 2-part review, we proposed a unifying hypothesis: both high and low wall shear stress drive intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture through mural cell-mediated and inflammatory cell-mediated destructive remodeling pathways, respectively. In the present report, Part 2, we delineate different wall shear stress parameter definitions and survey recent computational fluid dynamics studies, in light of this mechanistic heterogeneity. In the future, we expect that larger datasets, better analyses, and increased understanding of hemodynamic-biologic mechanisms will lead to more accurate predictive models for intracranial aneurysm risk assessment from computational fluid dynamics. © 2014 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction models for the Los Angeles region with application to earthquake early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bose, Maren; Graves, Robert; Gill, David; Callaghan, Scott; Maechling, Phillip J.

2014-01-01

Real-time applications such as earthquake early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large earthquakes (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) models from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (<0.5 Hz) and broad-band (0–10 Hz) data sets. CyberShake encompasses 3-D wave-propagation simulations of >415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a ‘proof of concept’, being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression models predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The models were established from a subset (∼20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our models to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that earthquakes need to exceed to cause at least ‘moderate’, ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin. These thresholds are used to construct a simple and robust EEW algorithm: to declare a warning, the algorithm only needs to locate the earthquake and to verify that the corresponding magnitude threshold is exceeded. The models predict that a relatively moderate M6.5–7 earthquake along the Palos Verdes, Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon, Elsinore or San Jacinto faults with a rupture propagating towards LA could cause ‘very strong’ to ‘severe’ shaking in the LA basin; however, warning times for these events could exceed 30 s.

Quasi-Dynamic Versus Fully-Dynamic Simulations of Slip Accumulation on Faults with Enhanced Dynamic Weakening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapusta, N.; Thomas, M.; Noda, H.; Avouac, J.

2012-12-01

Long-term simulations that incorporate both seismic events and aseismic slip are quite important for studies of earthquake physics but challenging computationally. To study long deformation histories, most simulation methods do not incorporate full inertial effects (wave propagation) during simulated earthquakes, using quasi-dynamic approximations instead. Here we compare the results of quasi-dynamic simulations to the fully dynamic ones for a range of problems to determine the applicability of the quasi-dynamic approach. Intuitively, the quasi-dynamic approach should do relatively well in problems where wave-mediated effects are relatively simple but should have substantially different (and hence wrong) response when the wave-mediated stress transfers dominate the character of the seismic events. This is exactly what we observe in our simulations. We consider a 2D model of a rate-and-state fault with a seismogenic (steady-state velocity-weakening) zone surrounded by creeping (steady-state velocity-strengthening) areas. If the seismogenic zone is described by the standard Dieterich-Ruina rate-and-state friction, the resulting earthquake sequences consist of relatively simple crack-like ruptures, and the inclusion of true wave-propagation effects mostly serves to concentrate stress more efficiently at the rupture front. Hence, in such models, rupture speeds and slip rates are significantly (several times) lower in the quasi-dynamic simulations compared to the fully dynamic ones, but the total slip, the crack-like nature of seismic events, and the overall pattern of earthquake sequences is comparable, consistently with prior studies. Such behavior can be classified as qualitatively similar but quantitatively different, and it motivates the popularity of the quasi-dynamic methods in simulations. However, the comparison changes dramatically once we consider a model with enhanced dynamic weakening in the seismogenic zone in the form of flash heating. In this case, the fully dynamic simulations produce seismic ruptures in the form of short-duration slip pulses, where the pulses form due to a combination of enhanced weakening and wave effects. The quasi-dynamic simulations in the same model produce completely different results, with large crack-like ruptures, different total slips, different rupture patterns, and different prestress state before large, model-spanning events. Such qualitative differences between the quasi-dynamic and fully-dynamic simulation should result in any model where inertial effects lead to qualitative differences, such as cases with supershear transition or fault with different materials on the two sides. We will present results on our current work on how the quasi-dynamic and fully dynamic simulations compare for the cases with heterogeneous fault properties.

Fan-head shear rupture mechanism as a source of off-fault tensile cracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasov, Boris

2016-04-01

This presentation discusses the role of a recently identified fan-head shear rupture mechanism [1] in the creation of off-fault tensile cracks observed in earthquake laboratory experiments conducted on brittle photoelastic specimens [2,3]. According to the fan-mechanism the shear rupture propagation is associated with consecutive creation of small slabs in the fracture tip which, due to rotation caused by shear displacement of the fracture interfaces, form a fan-structure representing the fracture head. The fan-head combines such unique features as: extremely low shear resistance (below the frictional strength) and self-sustaining tensile stress intensification along one side of the interface. The variation of tensile stress within the fan-head zone is like this: it increases with distance from the fracture tip up to a maximum value and then decreases. For the initial formation of the fan-head high local stresses corresponding to the fracture strength should be applied in a small area, however after completions of the fan-head it can propagate dynamically through the material at low shear stresses (even below the frictional strength). The fan-mechanism allows explaining all unique features associated with the off-fault cracking process observed in photoelastic experiments [2,3]. In these experiments spontaneous shear ruptures were nucleated in a bonded, precut, inclined and pre-stressed interface by producing a local pressure pulse in a small area. Isochromatic fringe patterns around a shear rupture propagating along bonded interface indicate the following features of the off-fault tensile crack development: tensile cracks nucleate and grow periodically along one side of the interface at a roughly constant angle (about 80 degrees) relative to the shear rupture interface; the tensile crack nucleation takes place some distance behind the rupture tip; with distance from the point of nucleation tensile cracks grow up to a certain length within the rupture head zone; behind this zone static microcracks are left in the wake of the propagating rupture. Unfortunately, the modern technology used in these experiments is not able to identify the shear rupture mechanism itself operated within the narrow rupture interface. However, a special analysis of side effects accompanying the shear rupture propagation (including the off-fault tensile cracking) allows supposing that the failure process was governed by the fan-mechanism. 1. Tarasov, B.G. 2014. Hitherto unknown shear rupture mechanism as a source of instability in intact hard rocks at highly confined compression. Tectonophysics, 621, 69-84. 2. Griffith, W.A., Rosakis, A., Pollard, D.D. and Ko, C.W., 2009. Dynamic rupture experiments elucidate tensile crack development during propagating earthquake ruptures, Geology, pp 795-798. 3. Ngo, D., Huang, Y., Rosakis, A., Griffith, W.A., Pollard D. 2012. Off-fault tensile cracks: A link between geological fault observations, lab experiments, and dynamic rupture models. Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 117, B01307, doi: 10.1029/2011JB008577 (2012).

Fault kinematics and active tectonics of the Sabah margin: Insights from the 2015, Mw 6.0, Mt. Kinabalu earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Wei, S.; Tapponnier, P.; WANG, X.; Lindsey, E.; Sieh, K.

2016-12-01

A gravity-driven "Mega-Landslide" model has been evoked to explain the shortening seen offshore Sabah and Brunei in oil-company seismic data. Although this model is considered to account simultaneously for recent folding at the edge of the submarine NW Sabah trough and normal faulting on the Sabah shelf, such a gravity-driven model is not consistent with geodetic data or critical examination of extant structural restorations. The rupture that produced the 2015 Mw6.0 Mt. Kinabalu earthquake is also inconsistent with the gravity-driven model. Our teleseismic analysis shows that the centroid depth of that earthquake's mainshock was 13 to 14 km, and its favored fault-plane solution is a 60° NW-dipping normal fault. Our finite-rupture model exhibits major fault slip between 5 and 15 km depth, in keeping with our InSAR analysis, which shows no appreciable surface deformation. Both the hypocentral depth and the depth of principal slip are far too deep to be explained by gravity-driven failure, as such a model would predict a listric normal fault connecting at a much shallower depth with a very gentle detachment. Our regional mapping of tectonic landforms also suggests the recent rupture is part of a 200-km long system of narrowly distributed active extension in northern Sabah. Taken together, the nature of the 2015 rupture, the belt of active normal faults, and structural consideration indicate that active tectonic shortening plays the leading role in controlling the overall deformation of northern Sabah and that deep-seated, onland normal faulting likely results from an abrupt change in the dip-angle of the collision interface beneath the Sabah accretionary prism.

A New Perspective on Fault Geometry and Slip Distribution of the 2009 Dachaidan Mw 6.3 Earthquake from InSAR Observations

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Fok, Hok Sum

2015-01-01

On 28 August 2009, the northern margin of the Qaidam basin in the Tibet Plateau was ruptured by an Mw 6.3 earthquake. This study utilizes the Envisat ASAR images from descending Track 319 and ascending Track 455 for capturing the coseismic deformation resulting from this event, indicating that the earthquake fault rupture does not reach to the earth’s surface. We then propose a four-segmented fault model to investigate the coseismic deformation by determining the fault parameters, followed by inverting slip distribution. The preferred fault model shows that the rupture depths for all four fault planes mainly range from 2.0 km to 7.5 km, comparatively shallower than previous results up to ~13 km, and that the slip distribution on the fault plane is complex, exhibiting three slip peaks with a maximum of 2.44 m at a depth between 4.1 km and 4.9 km. The inverted geodetic moment is 3.85 × 1018 Nm (Mw 6.36). The 2009 event may rupture from the northwest to the southeast unilaterally, reaching the maximum at the central segment. PMID:26184210

A New Perspective on Fault Geometry and Slip Distribution of the 2009 Dachaidan Mw 6.3 Earthquake from InSAR Observations.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Xu, Caijun; Wen, Yangmao; Fok, Hok Sum

2015-07-10

On 28 August 2009, the northern margin of the Qaidam basin in the Tibet Plateau was ruptured by an Mw 6.3 earthquake. This study utilizes the Envisat ASAR images from descending Track 319 and ascending Track 455 for capturing the coseismic deformation resulting from this event, indicating that the earthquake fault rupture does not reach to the earth's surface. We then propose a four-segmented fault model to investigate the coseismic deformation by determining the fault parameters, followed by inverting slip distribution. The preferred fault model shows that the rupture depths for all four fault planes mainly range from 2.0 km to 7.5 km, comparatively shallower than previous results up to ~13 km, and that the slip distribution on the fault plane is complex, exhibiting three slip peaks with a maximum of 2.44 m at a depth between 4.1 km and 4.9 km. The inverted geodetic moment is 3.85 × 10(18) Nm (Mw 6.36). The 2009 event may rupture from the northwest to the southeast unilaterally, reaching the maximum at the central segment.

Localized water reverberation phases and its impact on back-projection images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, H.; Castillo, J.; Yu, C.; Meng, L.; Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

Coherent radiators imaged by back-projections (BP) are commonly interpreted as part of the rupture process. Nevertheless, artifacts introduced by structure related phases are rarely discriminated from the rupture process. In this study, we adopt the logic of empirical Greens' function analysis (EGF) to discriminate between rupture and structure effect. We re-examine the waveforms and BP images of the 2012 Mw 7.2 Indian Ocean earthquake and an EGF event (Mw 6.2). The P wave codas of both events present similar shape with characteristic period of approximately 10 s, which are back-projected as coherent radiators near the trench. S wave BP doesn't image energy radiation near the trench. We interpret those coda waves as localized water reverberation phases excited near the trench. We perform a 2D waveform modeling using realistic bathymetry model, and find that the sharp near-trench bathymetry traps the acoustic water waves forming localized reverberation phases. These waves can be imaged as coherent near-trench radiators with similar features as that in the observations. We present a set of methodology to discriminate between the rupture and propagation effects in BP images, which can serve as a criterion of subevent identification.

Nuclear envelope rupture: little holes, big openings.

PubMed

Hatch, Emily M

2018-06-01

The nuclear envelope (NE), which is a critical barrier between the DNA and the cytosol, is capable of extensive dynamic membrane remodeling events in interphase. One of these events, interphase NE rupture and repair, can occur in both normal and disease states and results in the loss of nucleus compartmentalization. NE rupture is not lethal, but new research indicates that it could have broad impacts on genome stability and activate innate immune responses. These observations suggest a new model for how changes in NE structure could be pathogenic in cancer, laminopathies, and autoinflammatory syndromes, and redefine the functions of nucleus compartmentalization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mega-earthquakes rupture flat megathrusts.

PubMed

Bletery, Quentin; Thomas, Amanda M; Rempel, Alan W; Karlstrom, Leif; Sladen, Anthony; De Barros, Louis

2016-11-25

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes highlighted gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution: A fast convergence rate and young buoyant lithosphere are not required to produce mega-earthquakes. We calculated the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world, showing that mega-earthquakes preferentially rupture flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that heterogeneity in shear strength increases with curvature. Shear strength on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous, and hence more likely to be exceeded simultaneously over large areas, than on highly curved faults. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

[Diagnostic value of a predictive model for complete ruptures of the rotator cuff associated to subacromial impingement].

PubMed

Águila-Ledesma, I R; Córdova-Fonseca, J L; Medina-Pontaza, O; Núñez-Gómez, D A; Calvache-García, C; Pérez-Atanasio, J M; Torres-González, R

2017-01-01

Pathology related to the rotator cuff remains among the most prevalent musculoskeletal diseases. There is an increasing need for imaging studies (MRI, US, arthroscopy) to test the diagnostic performance of the medical history and physical examination. To prove the diagnostic value of a clinical-radiographic predictive model to find complete ruptures of the rotator cuff. Descriptive, observational, prospective, transversal and analytical study. Fifty-five patients with preoperative shoulder pain were evaluated with 13 predictive variables: age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, clinical signs of Neer, Hawkins, Jobe, external rotation lag (ERLS), belly-press, bear hug, and lift-off, radiographic measurement of subacromial space, acromial index and critical shoulder angle. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were measured in each variable, comparing the results of each one against the postoperative findings. Of the 55 patients evaluated, 42 had a complete rupture of the rotator cuff in the postoperative period. The eight variables with a higher diagnostic value were selected and a ROC curve was performed, providing an area under the curve of 0.88. This predictive model uses eight variables (age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, Jobe, Hawkins, ERLS, subacromial space ≤ 6 mm, and critical shoulder angle > 35°), which together add the predictive value of 0.88 (AUC) to diagnose complete ruptures of the supraspinatus tendon.

GPS source solution of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

PubMed

Houlié, N; Dreger, D; Kim, A

2014-01-17

We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data processing results from early post-seismic deformation. We also show 1) that if located very close to the rupture, a GPS receiver can saturate while it remains possible to estimate the ground velocity (~1.2 m/s) near the fault, 2) that GPS waveforms inversions constrain that the slip distribution at depth even when GPS monuments are not located directly above the ruptured areas and 3) the slip distribution at depth from our best models agree with that recovered from strong motion data. The 95(th) percentile of the slip amplitudes for rupture velocities ranging from 2 to 5 km/s is ~55 ± 6 cm.

GPS source solution of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

PubMed Central

Houlié, N.; Dreger, D.; Kim, A.

2014-01-01

We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data processing results from early post-seismic deformation. We also show 1) that if located very close to the rupture, a GPS receiver can saturate while it remains possible to estimate the ground velocity (~1.2 m/s) near the fault, 2) that GPS waveforms inversions constrain that the slip distribution at depth even when GPS monuments are not located directly above the ruptured areas and 3) the slip distribution at depth from our best models agree with that recovered from strong motion data. The 95th percentile of the slip amplitudes for rupture velocities ranging from 2 to 5 km/s is ~55 ± 6 cm. PMID:24434939

Morphological parameters associated with ruptured posterior communicating aneurysms.

PubMed

Ho, Allen; Lin, Ning; Charoenvimolphan, Nareerat; Stanley, Mary; Frerichs, Kai U; Day, Arthur L; Du, Rose

2014-01-01

The rupture risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is known to be dependent on the size of the aneurysm. However, the association of morphological characteristics with ruptured aneurysms has not been established in a systematic and location specific manner for the most common aneurysm locations. We evaluated posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms for morphological parameters associated with aneurysm rupture in that location. CT angiograms were evaluated to generate 3-D models of the aneurysms and surrounding vasculature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate morphological parameters including aneurysm volume, aspect ratio, size ratio, distance to ICA bifurcation, aneurysm angle, vessel angles, flow angles, and vessel-to-vessel angles. From 2005-2012, 148 PCoA aneurysms were treated in a single institution. Preoperative CTAs from 63 patients (40 ruptured, 23 unruptured) were available and analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that smaller volume (p = 0.011), larger aneurysm neck diameter (0.048), and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.005) were the most strongly associated with aneurysm rupture after adjusting for all other clinical and morphological variables. Multivariate subgroup analysis for patients with visualized PCoA demonstrated that larger neck diameter (p = 0.018) and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.011) were significantly associated with rupture. Intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with smaller volume, larger maximum height, and smaller aneurysm angle, in addition to lateral projection, male sex, and lack of hypertension. We found that shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance is significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture. This is a new physically intuitive parameter that can be measured easily and therefore be readily applied in clinical practice to aid in the evaluation of patients with PCoA aneurysms.

Morphological Parameters Associated with Ruptured Posterior Communicating Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Ho, Allen; Lin, Ning; Charoenvimolphan, Nareerat; Stanley, Mary; Frerichs, Kai U.; Day, Arthur L.; Du, Rose

2014-01-01

The rupture risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is known to be dependent on the size of the aneurysm. However, the association of morphological characteristics with ruptured aneurysms has not been established in a systematic and location specific manner for the most common aneurysm locations. We evaluated posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms for morphological parameters associated with aneurysm rupture in that location. CT angiograms were evaluated to generate 3-D models of the aneurysms and surrounding vasculature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate morphological parameters including aneurysm volume, aspect ratio, size ratio, distance to ICA bifurcation, aneurysm angle, vessel angles, flow angles, and vessel-to-vessel angles. From 2005–2012, 148 PCoA aneurysms were treated in a single institution. Preoperative CTAs from 63 patients (40 ruptured, 23 unruptured) were available and analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that smaller volume (p = 0.011), larger aneurysm neck diameter (0.048), and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.005) were the most strongly associated with aneurysm rupture after adjusting for all other clinical and morphological variables. Multivariate subgroup analysis for patients with visualized PCoA demonstrated that larger neck diameter (p = 0.018) and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.011) were significantly associated with rupture. Intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with smaller volume, larger maximum height, and smaller aneurysm angle, in addition to lateral projection, male sex, and lack of hypertension. We found that shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance is significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture. This is a new physically intuitive parameter that can be measured easily and therefore be readily applied in clinical practice to aid in the evaluation of patients with PCoA aneurysms. PMID:24733151

Lower risk of postinfarct rupture in mouse heart overexpressing beta 2-adrenergic receptors: importance of collagen content.

PubMed

Gao, Xiao-Ming; Dilley, Rodney J; Samuel, Chrishan S; Percy, Elodie; Fullerton, Meryl J; Dart, Anthony M; Du, Xiao-Jun

2002-10-01

This paper addresses whether the enhanced left ventricular (LV) contractility and heart rate, seen in transgenic mice overexpressing beta -adrenergic receptor in the heart, might raise the incidence of LV rupture after myocardial infarct. Transgenic and wild-type mice underwent left coronary artery occlusion. Postinfarct deaths that occurred 1-7 days after surgery were analyzed. Hemodynamics, morphologic parameters, and collagen content in the LV were determined. A significantly lower incidence of LV rupture was observed in transgenic than in wild-type mice 3-5 days after myocardial infarct (2.5 versus 19.7%, p < 0.05), despite a similar infarct size between the two groups and better hemodynamic function in transgenic mouse hearts. Morphologic analysis showed a more severe infarct expansion in wild-type versus transgenic mice or in mice dying of rupture versus those that died of acute heart failure. Collagen content was higher in the LV of sham-operated transgenic than wild-type mice (p < 0.01) with both type I and type III collagen elevated. Such difference in collagen content between transgenic and wild-type mice was maintained in noninfarcted and infarcted LV. In conclusion, transgenic mice overexpressing beta -adrenergic receptor had a lower risk of cardiac rupture during the acute phase after infarction despite the markedly enhanced LV contractility and heart rate. As a hyperdynamic function due to beta-adrenergic activation would likely increase the risk of cardiac rupture and infarct expansion, the lack of rupture in this transgenic mouse model suggests that the interstitial collagen level is a more important factor than functional status in the pathogenesis of rupture and infarct expansion.

Seismic rupture and ground accelerations induced by CO 2 injection in the shallow crust

DOE PAGES

Cappa, Frédéric; Rutqvist, Jonny

2012-09-01

We present that because of the critically stressed nature of the upper crust, the injection of large volumes of carbon dioxide (CO 2) into shallow geological reservoirs can trigger seismicity and induce ground deformations when the injection increases the fluid pressure in the vicinity of potentially seismic faults. The increased fluid pressure reduces the strength against fault slip, allowing the stored elastic energy to be released in seismic events that can produce felt ground accelerations. Here, we seek to explore the likelihood ground motions induced by a CO 2 injection using hydromechanical modelling with multiphase fluid flow and dynamic rupture,more » including fault-frictional weakening. We extend the previous work of Cappa and Rutqvist, in which activation of a normal fault at critical stress may be possible for fast rupture nucleating by localized increase in fluid pressure and large decrease in fault friction. In this paper, we include seismic wave propagation generated by the rupture. For our assumed system and injection rate, simulations show that after a few days of injection, a dynamic fault rupture of few centimetres nucleates at the base of the CO 2 reservoir and grows bilaterally, both toward the top of the reservoir and outside. The rupture is asymmetric and affects a larger zone below the reservoir where the rupture is self-propagating (without any further pressure increase) as a result of fault-strength weakening. The acceleration and deceleration of the rupture generate waves and result in ground accelerations (~0.1–0.6 g) consistent with observed ground motion records. Finally, the maximum ground acceleration is obtained near the fault, and horizontal accelerations are generally markedly higher than vertical accelerations.« less

Examining Structural Controls on Earthquake Rupture Dynamics Along the San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, J. J.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2002-12-01

Recent numerical simulations of dynamic rupture [Andrews and Ben-Zion, 1997; Harris and Day, 1997] have confirmed earlier analytical results [Weertman, 1980; Adams, 1995] that a contrast in elastic properties between the two sides of a fault will generate an interaction between the normal stress and fault slip that is not present in a homogeneous medium. It has been shown that for a range of frictional parameters and initial conditions, this interaction produces a statistical preference for unilateral rupture propagation in the direction of slip of the more compliant medium [Ben-Zion and Andrews, 1998; Cochard and Rice, 2000; Ben-Zion and Huang 2002]. Thus, the directivity of earthquake ruptures on large faults with well-developed material interfaces may be controlled by material contrasts of the rocks within and across the fault zone. One of the largest known velocity contrasts across a major crustal fault occurs along the Bear Valley section of the San Andreas where high velocity materials on the SW side (P-velocity >5 km/s) are juxtaposed with low-velocity material on the NE side (P-velocity <4 km/s) down to a depth of about 4 km with a less dramatic contrast continuing to about 8 km [Thurber et al., 1997]. This boundary is strong enough to generate significant head-waves refracted along it that are recorded as the first arrivals at stations close to the fault on the NE side [McNally and McEvilly, 1977]. Rubin and Gillard [2000] and Rubin [2002] relocated the events in this region using NCSN waveform data and found that more than twice as many immediate aftershocks to small earthquakes occurred to the NW of the mainshock as to the SE, which they interpreted as being consistent with a preferred rupture direction to the SE. Their interpretation that aftershocks to microearthquakes occur preferentially in the direction opposite of rupture propagation has not been directly tested and is inconsistent with observations from moderate [Fletcher and Spudich, 1998] and large earthquakes [Kilb et al., 2000], which show considerable variability and possibly the opposite preference. We are attempting to directly test the prediction of a preference for rupture propagation to the SE on this fault segment by combining travel-time and waveform modeling of fault-zone head waves, high precision earthquake relocations, and rupture directivity studies. Initial results indicate that there is considerable variability along strike in the strength of the across-fault velocity contrast, with maximum values reaching about 25-30%. This spatial variability in the strength of the material property contrast would be expected to produce a spatial variability in earthquake rupture directivity. We are developing a catalog of earthquake rupture directivity estimates for magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes to compare with the variations of the velocity contrast and aftershock asymmetry. Initial results indicate that even in the regions of highest velocity contrast, moderate earthquakes (M=3) can still rupture unilaterally to the NE. Detailed high resolution results from head-wave modeling, rupture directivity studies, and earthquake relocations will be presented.

Uplift and subsidence associated with the great Aceh-Andaman earthquake of 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meltzner, A.J.; Sieh, K.; Abrams, M.; Agnew, D.C.; Hudnut, K.W.; Avouac, J.-P.; Natawidjaja, D.H.

2006-01-01

Rupture of the Sunda megathrust on 26 December 2004 produced broad regions of uplift and subsidence. We define the pivot line separating these regions as a first step in defining the lateral extent and the downdip limit of rupture during that great Mw ??? 9.2 earthquake. In the region of the Andaman and Nicobar islands we rely exclusively on the interpretation of satellite imagery and a tidal model. At the southern limit of the great rupture we rely principally on field measurements of emerged coral microatolls. Uplift extends from the middle of Simeulue Island, Sumatra, at ??? 2.5??N, to Preparis Island, Myanmar (Burma), at ??? 14.9??N. Thus the rupture is ??? 1600 km long. The distance from the pivot line to the trench varies appreciably. The northern and western Andaman Islands rose, whereas the southern and eastern portion of the islands subsided. The Nicobar Islands and the west coast of Aceh province, Sumatra, subsided. Tilt at the southern end of the rupture is steep; the distance from 1.5 m of uplift to the pivot line is just 60 km. Our method of using satellite imagery to recognize changes in elevation relative to sea surface height and of using a tidal model to place quantitative bounds on coseismic uplift or subsidence is a novel approach that can be adapted to other forms of remote sensing and can be applied to other subduction zones in tropical regions. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Dynamic mortar finite element method for modeling of shear rupture on frictional rough surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, Yuval; Hager, Bradford H.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a mortar-based finite element formulation for modeling the dynamics of shear rupture on rough interfaces governed by slip-weakening and rate and state (RS) friction laws, focusing on the dynamics of earthquakes. The method utilizes the dual Lagrange multipliers and the primal-dual active set strategy concepts, together with a consistent discretization and linearization of the contact forces and constraints, and the friction laws to obtain a semi-smooth Newton method. The discretization of the RS friction law involves a procedure to condense out the state variables, thus eliminating the addition of another set of unknowns into the system. Several numerical examples of shear rupture on frictional rough interfaces demonstrate the efficiency of the method and examine the effects of the different time discretization schemes on the convergence, energy conservation, and the time evolution of shear traction and slip rate.

Stress drop with constant, scale independent seismic efficiency and overshoot

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, N.M.

2001-01-01

To model dissipated and radiated energy during earthquake stress drop, I calculate dynamic fault slip using a single degree of freedom spring-slider block and a laboratory-based static/kinetic fault strength relation with a dynamic stress drop proportional to effective normal stress. The model is scaled to earthquake size assuming a circular rupture; stiffness varies inversely with rupture radius, and rupture duration is proportional to radius. Calculated seismic efficiency, the ratio of radiated to total energy expended during stress drop, is in good agreement with laboratory and field observations. Predicted overshoot, a measure of how much the static stress drop exceeds the dynamic stress drop, is higher than previously published laboratory and seismic observations and fully elasto-dynamic calculations. Seismic efficiency and overshoot are constant, independent of normal stress and scale. Calculated variation of apparent stress with seismic moment resembles the observational constraints of McGarr [1999].

How material contrast around subduction faults may control coseismic slip and rupture dynamics: tsunami applications for the case study of Tohoku

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scala, Antonio; Murphy, Shane; Romano, Fabrizio; Lorito, Stefano; Festa, Gaetano; Volpe, Manuela; Piatanesi, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recent megathrust tsunamigenic events, e.g. Maule 2010 (M8.8) and Tohoku 2011 (M9.0), generated huge tsunami waves as a consequence of high slip in the shallow part of the respective subduction zone. Other events, (e.g. the recent Mentawai 2010, M7.8, or the historical Meiji 1896, M8.2), referred to as tsunami earthquakes, produced unexpectedly large tsunami waves, probably due to large slip at shallow depth over longer rupture durations compared to deeper thrust events. Subduction zone earthquakes originate and propagate along bimaterial interfaces separating materials having different elastic properties, e.g. continental and oceanic crust, a stiffer deep mantle wedge, shallow compliant accretionary prism etc. Bimaterial interfaces have been showed, through observations (seismological and laboratory) and theoretical studies, to affect the rupture: introducing a preferred rupture direction as well as asymmetric rupture velocities and shear stress redistributions. Such features are predominantly due to the break of symmetry between the two sides of the interface in turn ascribable to the complex coupling between the frictional interfacial sliding and the slip-induced normal stress perturbations. In order to examine the influence of material contrast on a fault plane on the seismic source and tsunami waves, we modelled a Tohoku-like subduction zone to perform a large number of 2D along-dip rupture dynamics simulations in the framework of linear slip weakening both for homogeneous and bimaterial fault. In this latter model, the rupture acts as the interface between the subducting oceanic crust and the overriding layers (accretionary prism, continental crust and mantle wedge), varying the position of the shear stress asperity acting as nucleation patch. Initial results reveal that ruptures in homogeneous media produce earthquakes with large slip at depth compared to the case where bi-material interface is included. However the opposite occurs for events nucleating at intermediate depths: the compliant accretionary prism favours slip up to the free surface leading to larger events compared to the homogeneous case. These preliminary findings will be further investigated considering different material contrasts between the slab and the overriding accretionary prism to mimic the slowness of the sedimentary wedge. This will contribute to assess the influence of these contrasts in more realistic environment on the seismic source features and, in turn, on the conditional probability of exceedance for maximum tsunami wave height for a M9 event. Several source parameters, such as coseismic slip, rupture duration, rupture velocity and stress conditions, derived from the numerical simulations will be compared to those inferred from real events using existing finite fault catalogues (e.g. USGS, SRCMOD, etc.).

An unified numerical simulation of seismic ground motion, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations and tsunamis of 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Furumura, T.; Noguchi, S.; Takemura, S.; Iwai, K.; Lee, S.; Sakai, S.; Shinohara, M.

2011-12-01

The fault rupture of the 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquake spread approximately 550 km by 260 km with a long source rupture duration of ~200 s. For such large earthquake with a complicated source rupture process the radiation of seismic wave from the source rupture and initiation of tsunami due to the coseismic deformation is considered to be very complicated. In order to understand such a complicated process of seismic wave, coseismic deformation and tsunami, we proposed a unified approach for total modeling of earthquake induced phenomena in a single numerical scheme based on a finite-difference method simulation (Maeda and Furumura, 2011). This simulation model solves the equation of motion of based on the linear elastic theory with equilibrium between quasi-static pressure and gravity in the water column. The height of tsunami is obtained from this simulation as a vertical displacement of ocean surface. In order to simulate seismic waves, ocean acoustics, coseismic deformations, and tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, we assembled a high-resolution 3D heterogeneous subsurface structural model of northern Japan. The area of simulation is 1200 km x 800 km and 120 km in depth, which have been discretized with grid interval of 1 km in horizontal directions and 0.25 km in vertical direction, respectively. We adopt a source-rupture model proposed by Lee et al. (2011) which is obtained by the joint inversion of teleseismic, near-field strong motion, and coseismic deformation. For conducting such a large-scale simulation, we fully parallelized our simulation code based on a domain-partitioning procedure which achieved a good speed-up by parallel computing up to 8192 core processors with parallel efficiency of 99.839%. The simulation result demonstrates clearly the process in which the seismic wave radiates from the complicated source rupture over the fault plane and propagating in heterogeneous structure of northern Japan. Then, generation of tsunami from coseismic ground deformation at sea floor due to the earthquake and propagation is also well demonstrated . The simulation also demonstrates that a very large slip up to 40 m at shallow plate boundary near the trench pushes up sea floor with source rupture propagation, and the highly elevated sea surface gradually start propagation as tsunamis due to the gravity. The result of simulation of vertical-component displacement waveform matches the ocean-bottom pressure gauge record which is installed just above the source fault area (Maeda et al., 2011) very consistently. Strong reverberation of the ocean-acoustic waves between sea surface and sea bottom particularly near the Japan Trench for long time after the source rupture ends is confirmed in the present simulation. Accordingly, long wavetrains of high-frequency ocean acoustic waves is developed and overlap to later tsunami waveforms as we found in the observations.

Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.

2015-12-01

RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7.8 Hawkes Bay Earthquake.

Adjoint analysis of the source and path sensitivities of basin-guided waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Steven M.; Roten, Daniel; Olsen, Kim B.

2012-05-01

Simulations of earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) reveal large amplifications in the San Gabriel and Los Angeles Basins (SGB and LAB) apparently associated with long-range path effects. Geometrically similar excitation patterns can be recognized repeatedly in different SAF simulations (e.g. Love wave-like energy with predominant period around 4 s, channelled southwestwardly from the SGB into LAB), yet the amplitudes with which these distinctive wavefield patterns are excited change, depending upon source details (slip distribution, direction and velocity of rupture). We describe a method for rapid calculation of the sensitivity of such predicted wavefield features to perturbations of the source kinematics, using a time-reversed (adjoint) wavefield simulation. The calculations are analogous to those done in adjoint tomography, and the same time-reversed calculation also yields path-sensitivity kernels that give further insight into the excitation mechanism. For rupture on the southernmost 300 km of SAF, LAB excitation is greatest for slip concentrated between the northern Coachella Valley and the transverse ranges, propagating to the NE and with rupture velocities between 3250 and 3500 m s-1 along that fault segment; that is, within or slightly above the velocity range (between Rayleigh and S velocities) that is energetically precluded in the limit of a sharp rupture front, highlighting the potential value of imposing physical constraints (such as from spontaneous rupture models) on source parametrizations. LAB excitation is weak for rupture to the SW and for ruptures in either direction located north of the transverse transverse ranges, whereas Ventura Basin (VTB) is preferentially excited by NE ruptures situated north of the transverse ranges. Path kernels show that LAB excitation is mediated by surface waves deflected by the velocity contrast along the southern margin of the transverse ranges, having most of their energy in basement rock until they impinge on the eastern edge of SGB, through which they are then funnelled into LAB. VTB amplification is enhanced by a similar waveguide effect.

Using Paleoseismic Trenching and LiDAR Analysis to Evaluate Rupture Propagation Through Segment Boundaries of the Central Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, S. E. K.; DuRoss, C. B.; Reitman, N. G.; Devore, J. R.; Hiscock, A.; Gold, R. D.; Briggs, R. W.; Personius, S. F.

2014-12-01

Paleoseismic data near fault segment boundaries constrain the extent of past surface ruptures and the persistence of rupture termination at segment boundaries. Paleoseismic evidence for large (M≥7.0) earthquakes on the central Holocene-active fault segments of the 350-km-long Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) generally supports single-segment ruptures but also permits multi-segment rupture scenarios. The extent and frequency of ruptures that span segment boundaries remains poorly known, adding uncertainty to seismic hazard models for this populated region of Utah. To address these uncertainties we conducted four paleoseismic investigations near the Salt Lake City-Provo and Provo-Nephi segment boundaries of the WFZ. We examined an exposure of the WFZ at Maple Canyon (Woodland Hills, UT) and excavated the Flat Canyon trench (Salem, UT), 7 and 11 km, respectively, from the southern tip of the Provo segment. We document evidence for at least five earthquakes at Maple Canyon and four to seven earthquakes that post-date mid-Holocene fan deposits at Flat Canyon. These earthquake chronologies will be compared to seven earthquakes observed in previous trenches on the northern Nephi segment to assess rupture correlation across the Provo-Nephi segment boundary. To assess rupture correlation across the Salt Lake City-Provo segment boundary we excavated the Alpine trench (Alpine, UT), 1 km from the northern tip of the Provo segment, and the Corner Canyon trench (Draper, UT) 1 km from the southern tip of the Salt Lake City segment. We document evidence for six earthquakes at both sites. Ongoing geochronologic analysis (14C, optically stimulated luminescence) will constrain earthquake chronologies and help identify through-going ruptures across these segment boundaries. Analysis of new high-resolution (0.5m) airborne LiDAR along the entire WFZ will quantify latest Quaternary displacements and slip rates and document spatial and temporal slip patterns near fault segment boundaries.

Aneurysm Characteristics Associated with the Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysms: A Self-Controlled Study.

PubMed

Kang, Huibin; Ji, Wenjun; Qian, Zenghui; Li, Youxiang; Jiang, Chuhan; Wu, Zhongxue; Wen, Xiaolong; Xu, Wenjuan; Liu, Aihua

2015-01-01

This study analyzed the rupture risk of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) according to aneurysm characteristics by comparing the differences between two aneurysms in different locations within the same patient. We utilized this self-controlled model to exclude potential interference from all demographic factors to study the risk factors related to IA rupture. A total of 103 patients were diagnosed with IAs between January 2011 and April 2015 and were enrolled in this study. All enrolled patients had two IAs. One IA (the case) was ruptured, and the other (the control) was unruptured. Aneurysm characteristics, including the presence of a daughter sac, the aneurysm neck, the parent artery diameter, the maximum aneurysm height, the maximum aneurysm width, the location, the aspect ratio (AR, maximum perpendicular height/average neck diameter), the size ratio (SR, maximum aneurysm height/average parent diameter) and the width/height ratio (WH ratio, maximum aneurysm width/maximum aneurysm height), were collected and analyzed to evaluate the rupture risks of the two IAs within each patient and to identify the independent risk factors associated with IA rupture. Multivariate, conditional, backward, stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with IA rupture. The multivariate analysis identified the presence of a daughter sac (odds ratio [OR], 13.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-115.87), a maximum aneurysm height ≥7 mm (OR, 4.80; 95% CI, 1.21-18.98), location on the posterior communicating artery (PCOM) or anterior communicating artery (ACOM; OR, 3.09; 95% CI, 1.34-7.11) and SR (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.16-3.91) as factors that were significantly associated with IA rupture. The presence of a daughter sac, the maximum aneurysm height, PCOM or ACOM locations and SR (>1.5±0.7) of unruptured IAs were significantly associated with IA rupture.

Solving the dynamic rupture problem with different numerical approaches and constitutive laws

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bizzarri, A.; Cocco, M.; Andrews, D.J.; Boschi, Enzo

2001-01-01

We study the dynamic initiation, propagation and arrest of a 2-D in-plane shear rupture by solving the elastodynamic equation by using both a boundary integral equation method and a finite difference approach. For both methods we adopt different constitutive laws: a slip-weakening (SW) law, with constant weakening rate, and rate- and state-dependent friction laws (Dieterich-Ruina). Our numerical procedures allow the use of heterogeneous distributions of constitutive parameters along the fault for both formulations. We first compare the two solution methods with an SW law, emphasizing the required stability conditions to achieve a good resolution of the cohesive zone and to avoid artificial complexity in the solutions. Our modelling results show that the two methods provide very similar time histories of dynamic source parameters. We point out that, if a careful control of resolution and stability is performed, the two methods yield identical solutions. We have also compared the rupture evolution resulting from an SW and a rate- and state-dependent friction law. This comparison shows that despite the different constitutive formulations, a similar behaviour is simulated during the rupture propagation and arrest. We also observe a crack tip bifurcation and a jump in rupture velocity (approaching the P-wave speed) with the Dieterich-Ruina (DR) law. The rupture arrest at a barrier (high strength zone) and the barrier-healing mechanism are also reproduced by this law. However, this constitutive formulation allows the simulation of a more general and complex variety of rupture behaviours. By assuming different heterogeneous distributions of the initial constitutive parameters, we are able to model a barrier-healing as well as a self-healing process. This result suggests that if the heterogeneity of the constitutive parameters is taken into account, the different healing mechanisms can be simulated. We also study the nucleation phase duration Tn, defined as the time necessary for the crack to reach the half-length Ic. We compare the Tn values resulting from distinct simulations calculated using different constitutive laws and different sets of constitutive parameters. Our results confirm that the DR law provides a different description of the nucleation process than the SW law adopted in this study. We emphasize that the DR law yields a complete description of the rupture process, which includes the most prominent features of SW.

Intra-caldera active fault: An example from the Mw 7.0 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, S.; Murakami, T.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

A NE-trending 30-km-long surface rupture with up to 2.4 m dextral slip emerged during the Mw=7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake along the previously mapped Futagawa and northern Hinagu fault systems. The 5-km-long portion of the northeast rupture end, which was previously unidentified, crossed somma and extended to the 20-km-diameter Aso Caldera, one of the major active volcanoes, central Kyushu. We here explore geologic exposures of interplays of active faulting and active volcanism, and then argue the Futagawa fault system has been influenced by the ring fault system associated with the caldera forming gigantic eruptions since 270 ka, last of which occurred 90 ka ejecting a huge amount of ignimbrite. To understand the interplays, together with the mapping of the 2016 rupture, we employed an UAV to capture numerous photos of the exposures along the canyon and developed 3D orthochromatic topographic model using PhotoScan. One-hundred-meter-deep Kurokawa River canyon by the Aso Caldera rim exposes two lava flow units of 50 ka vertically offset by 10 m by the Futatawa fault system. Reconstructions of the collapsed bridges across the Kurokawa River also reveal cross sections of a 30-meter-high tectonic bulge and 10-m-scale negative flower structure deformed by the frequent fault movements. We speculate two fault developing models across the Aso Caldera. One is that the NE edge of the Futagawa fault system was cut and reset by the caldera forming ring fault, which indicates the 3-km-long rupture extent within the Aso Caldera would be a product of the fault growth since the last Aso-4 eruption of 90 ka. It enables us to estimate the 33 mm/yr of the fault propagation speed. An alternative model is that subsurface rupture of the Kumamoto earthquake extended further to the NE rim, the other side of the caldera edge, which is partially supported by the geodetic and seismic inversions. With respect to the model, the clear surface rupture of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake was invisible due to the lava and fallout layers younger than 4ka that probably experienced only one or two events and do not have the pre-existing weak and sharp fault plane yet.

Detection limits of tidal-wetland sequences to identify variable rupture modes of megathrust earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shennan, Ian; Garrett, Ed; Barlow, Natasha

2016-10-01

Recent paleoseismological studies question whether segment boundaries identified for 20th and 21st century great, >M8, earthquakes persist through multiple earthquake cycles or whether smaller segments with different boundaries rupture and cause significant hazards. The smaller segments may include some currently slipping rather than locked. In this review, we outline general principles regarding indicators of relative sea-level change in tidal wetlands and the conditions in which paleoseismic indicators must be distinct from those resulting from non-seismic processes. We present new evidence from sites across southcentral Alaska to illustrate different detection limits of paleoseismic indicators and consider alternative interpretations for marsh submergence and emergence. We compare predictions of coseismic uplift and subsidence derived from geophysical models of earthquakes with different rupture modes. The spatial patterns of agreement and misfits between model predictions and quantitative reconstructions of coseismic submergence and emergence suggest that no earthquake within the last 4000 years had a pattern of rupture the same as the Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake in 1964. From the Alaska examples and research from other subduction zones we suggest that If we want to understand whether a megathrust ruptures in segments of variable length in different earthquakes, we need to be site-specific as to what sort of geological-based criteria eliminate the possibility of a particular rupture mode in different earthquakes. We conclude that coastal paleoseismological studies benefit from a methodological framework that employs rigorous evaluation of five essential criteria and a sixth which may be very robust but only occur at some sites: 1 - lateral extent of peat-mud or mud-peat couplets with sharp contacts; 2 - suddenness of submergence or emergence, and replicated within each site; 3 - amount of vertical motion, quantified with 95% error terms and replicated within each site; 4 - syncroneity of submergence and emergence based on statistical age modelling; 5 - spatial pattern of submergence and emergence; 6 - possible additional evidence, such as evidence of a tsunami or liquefaction concurrent with submergence or emergence. We suggest that it is possible to consider detection limits as low as 0.1-0.2 m coseismic vertical change.

Comparison of NGA-West2 directivity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spudich, Paul A.; Rowshandel, Badie; Shahi, Shrey; Baker, Jack W.; Chiou, Brian S-J

2014-01-01

Five directivity models have been developed based on data from the NGA-West2 database and based on numerical simulations of large strike-slip and reverse-slip earthquakes. All models avoid the use of normalized rupture dimension, enabling them to scale up to the largest earthquakes in a physically reasonable way. Four of the five models are explicitly “narrow-band” (in which the effect of directivity is maximum at a specific period that is a function of earthquake magnitude). Several strategies for determining the zero-level for directivity have been developed. We show comparisons of maps of the directivity amplification. This comparison suggests that the predicted geographic distributions of directivity amplification are dominated by effects of the models' assumptions, and more than one model should be used for ruptures dipping less than about 65 degrees.

Insights into the relationship between surface and subsurface activity from mechanical modeling of the 1992 Landers M7.3 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madden, E. H.; Pollard, D. D.

2009-12-01

Multi-fault, strike-slip earthquakes have proved difficult to incorporate into seismic hazard analyses due to the difficulty of determining the probability of these ruptures, despite collection of extensive data associated with such events. Modeling the mechanical behavior of these complex ruptures contributes to a better understanding of their occurrence by elucidating the relationship between surface and subsurface earthquake activity along transform faults. This insight is especially important for hazard mitigation, as multi-fault systems can produce earthquakes larger than those associated with any one fault involved. We present a linear elastic, quasi-static model of the southern portion of the 28 June 1992 Landers earthquake built in the boundary element software program Poly3D. This event did not rupture the extent of any one previously mapped fault, but trended 80km N and NW across segments of five sub-parallel, N-S and NW-SE striking faults. At M7.3, the earthquake was larger than the potential earthquakes associated with the individual faults that ruptured. The model extends from the Johnson Valley Fault, across the Landers-Kickapoo Fault, to the Homestead Valley Fault, using data associated with a six-week time period following the mainshock. It honors the complex surface deformation associated with this earthquake, which was well exposed in the desert environment and mapped extensively in the field and from aerial photos in the days immediately following the earthquake. Thus, the model incorporates the non-linearity and segmentation of the main rupture traces, the irregularity of fault slip distributions, and the associated secondary structures such as strike-slip splays and thrust faults. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images of the Landers event provided the first satellite images of ground deformation caused by a single seismic event and provide constraints on off-fault surface displacement in this six-week period. Insight is gained by comparing the density, magnitudes and focal plane orientations of relocated aftershocks for this time frame with the magnitude and orientation of planes of maximum Coulomb shear stress around the fault planes at depth.

Use of regional mechanical properties of abdominal aortic aneurysms to advance finite element modeling of rupture risk.

PubMed

Tierney, Áine P; Callanan, Anthony; McGloughlin, Timothy M

2012-02-01

To investigate the use of regional variations in the mechanical properties of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) in finite element (FE) modeling of AAA rupture risk, which has heretofore assumed homogeneous mechanical tissue properties. Electrocardiogram-gated computed tomography scans from 3 male patients with known infrarenal AAA were used to characterize the behavior of the aneurysm in 4 different segments (posterior, anterior, and left and right lateral) at maximum diameter and above the infrarenal aorta. The elasticity of the aneurysm (circumferential cyclic strain, compliance, and the Hudetz incremental modulus) was calculated for each segment and the aneurysm as a whole. The FE analysis inclusive of prestress (pre-existing tensile stress) produced a detailed stress pattern on each of the aneurysm models under pressure loading. The 4 largest areas of stress in each region were considered in conjunction with the local regional properties of the segment to define a specific regional prestress rupture index (RPRI). In terms of elasticity, there were average reductions of 68% in circumferential cyclic strain and 63% in compliance, with a >5-fold increase in incremental modulus, between the healthy and the aneurysmal aorta for each patient. There were also regional variations in all elastic properties in each individual patient. The average difference in total stress inclusive of prestress was 59%, 67%, and 15%, respectively, for the 3 patients. Comparing the strain from FE models with the CT scans revealed an average difference in strain of 1.55% for the segmented models and 3.61% for the homogeneous models, which suggests that the segmented models more accurately reflect in vivo behavior. RPRI values were calculated for each segment for all patients. A greater understanding of the local material properties and their use in FE models is essential for greater accuracy in rupture prediction. Quantifying the regional behavior will yield insight into the changes in patient-specific aneurysms and increase understanding about the progression of aneurysmal disease.

A prototype of the procedure of strong ground motion prediction for intraslab earthquake based on characterized source model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwata, T.; Asano, K.; Sekiguchi, H.

2011-12-01

We propose a prototype of the procedure to construct source models for strong motion prediction during intraslab earthquakes based on the characterized source model (Irikura and Miyake, 2011). The key is the characterized source model which is based on the empirical scaling relationships for intraslab earthquakes and involve the correspondence between the SMGA (strong motion generation area, Miyake et al., 2003) and the asperity (large slip area). Iwata and Asano (2011) obtained the empirical relationships of the rupture area (S) and the total asperity area (Sa) to the seismic moment (Mo) as follows, with assuming power of 2/3 dependency of S and Sa on M0, S (km**2) = 6.57×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (1) Sa (km**2) = 1.04 ×10**(-11)×Mo**(2/3) (Nm) (2). Iwata and Asano (2011) also pointed out that the position and the size of SMGA approximately corresponds to the asperity area for several intraslab events. Based on the empirical relationships, we gave a procedure for constructing source models of intraslab earthquakes for strong motion prediction. [1] Give the seismic moment, Mo. [2] Obtain the total rupture area and the total asperity area according to the empirical scaling relationships between S, Sa, and Mo given by Iwata and Asano (2011). [3] Square rupture area and asperities are assumed. [4] The source mechanism is assumed to be the same as that of small events in the source region. [5] Plural scenarios including variety of the number of asperities and rupture starting points are prepared. We apply this procedure by simulating strong ground motions for several observed events for confirming the methodology.

Simulation of the Tsunami Resulting from the M 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake - Dynamic Rupture vs. Seismic Inversion Source Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vater, Stefan; Behrens, Jörn

2017-04-01

Simulations of historic tsunami events such as the 2004 Sumatra or the 2011 Tohoku event are usually initialized using earthquake sources resulting from inversion of seismic data. Also, other data from ocean buoys etc. is sometimes included in the derivation of the source model. The associated tsunami event can often be well simulated in this way, and the results show high correlation with measured data. However, it is unclear how the derived source model compares to the particular earthquake event. In this study we use the results from dynamic rupture simulations obtained with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-DG discretization solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. The tsunami model is based on a second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme on triangular grids and features a robust wetting and drying scheme for the simulation of inundation events at the coast. Adaptive mesh refinement enables the efficient computation of large domains, while at the same time it allows for high local resolution and geometric accuracy. The results are compared to measured data and results using earthquake sources based on inversion. With the approach of using the output of actual dynamic rupture simulations, we can estimate the influence of different earthquake parameters. Furthermore, the comparison to other source models enables a thorough comparison and validation of important tsunami parameters, such as the runup at the coast. This work is part of the ASCETE (Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events) project, which aims at an improved understanding of the coupling between the earthquake and the generated tsunami event.

Speed of fast and slow rupture fronts along frictional interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trømborg, Jørgen Kjoshagen; Sveinsson, Henrik Andersen; Thøgersen, Kjetil; Scheibert, Julien; Malthe-Sørenssen, Anders

2015-07-01

The transition from stick to slip at a dry frictional interface occurs through the breaking of microjunctions between the two contacting surfaces. Typically, interactions between junctions through the bulk lead to rupture fronts propagating from weak and/or highly stressed regions, whose junctions break first. Experiments find rupture fronts ranging from quasistatic fronts, via fronts much slower than elastic wave speeds, to fronts faster than the shear wave speed. The mechanisms behind and selection between these fronts are still imperfectly understood. Here we perform simulations in an elastic two-dimensional spring-block model where the frictional interaction between each interfacial block and the substrate arises from a set of junctions modeled explicitly. We find that material slip speed and rupture front speed are proportional across the full range of front speeds we observe. We revisit a mechanism for slow slip in the model and demonstrate that fast slip and fast fronts have a different, inertial origin. We highlight the long transients in front speed even along homogeneous interfaces, and we study how both the local shear to normal stress ratio and the local strength are involved in the selection of front type and front speed. Last, we introduce an experimentally accessible integrated measure of block slip history, the Gini coefficient, and demonstrate that in the model it is a good predictor of the history-dependent local static friction coefficient of the interface. These results will contribute both to building a physically based classification of the various types of fronts and to identifying the important mechanisms involved in the selection of their propagation speed.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady increase of high frequency power (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of subducting seamounts that promote high-frequency generation. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

Morphological Variables Associated With Ruptured Middle Cerebral Artery Aneurysms.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Can, Anil; Mukundan, Srinivasan; Steigner, Michael; Castro, Victor M; Dligach, Dmitriy; Finan, Sean; Yu, Sheng; Gainer, Vivian; Shadick, Nancy A; Savova, Guergana; Murphy, Shawn; Cai, Tianxi; Wang, Zhong; Weiss, Scott T; Du, Rose

2018-05-30

Geometric factors of intracranial aneurysms and surrounding vasculature could affect the risk of aneurysm rupture. However, large-scale assessments of morphological parameters correlated with intracranial aneurysm rupture in a location-specific manner are scarce. To investigate the morphological characteristics associated with ruptured middle cerebral artery (MCA) aneurysms. Five hundred sixty-one patients with 638 MCA aneurysms diagnosed between 1990 and 2016 who had available computed tomography angiography (CTA) were included in this study. CTAs were evaluated using the Vitrea Advanced Visualization software for 3-dimensional (3D) reconstruction. Morphological parameters examined in each model included aneurysm projection, wall irregularity, presence of a daughter dome, presence of hypoplastic or aplastic A1 arteries and hypoplastic or fetal posterior communicating arteries (PCoA), aneurysm height and width, neck diameter, bottleneck factor, aspect and size ratio, height/width ratio, and diameters and angles of surrounding parent and daughter vessels. Univariable and multivariable statistical analyses were performed to determine the association of morphological characteristics with rupture of MCA aneurysms. Logistic regression was used to build a predictive MCA score. Greater bottleneck and size ratio, and irregular, multilobed, temporally projecting MCA aneurysms are associated with higher rupture risk, whereas higher M1/M2 ratio, larger width, and the presence of an ipsilateral or bilateral hypoplastic PCoA were inversely associated with rupture. The MCA score had good predictive capacity with area under the receiver operating curve = 0.88. These practical morphological parameters specific to MCA aneurysms are easy to assess when examining 3D reconstructions of unruptured aneurysms and could aid in risk evaluation in these patients.

National Rates of Uterine Rupture are not Associated with Rates of Previous Caesarean Delivery: Results from the Nordic Obstetric Surveillance Study.

PubMed

Colmorn, Lotte B; Langhoff-Roos, Jens; Jakobsson, Maija; Tapper, Anna-Maija; Gissler, Mika; Lindqvist, Pelle G; Källen, Karin; Gottvall, Karin; Klungsøyr, Kari; Bøhrdahl, Per; Bjarnadóttir, Ragnhild I; Krebs, Lone

2017-05-01

Previous caesarean delivery and intended mode of delivery after caesarean are well-known individual risk factors for uterine rupture. We examined if different national rates of uterine rupture are associated with differences in national rates of previous caesarean delivery and intended mode of delivery after a previous caesarean delivery. This study is an ecological study based on data from a retrospective cohort in the Nordic countries. Data on uterine rupture were collected prospectively in each country as part of the Nordic obstetric surveillance study and included 91% of all Nordic deliveries. Information on the comparison population was retrieved from the national medical birth registers. Incidence rate ratios by previous caesarean delivery and intended mode of delivery after caesarean were modelled using Poisson regression. The incidence of uterine rupture was 7.8/10 000 in Finland and 4.6/10 000 in Denmark. Rates of caesarean (21.3%) and previous caesarean deliveries (11.5%) were highest in Denmark, while the rate of intended vaginal delivery after caesarean was highest in Finland (72%). National rates of uterine rupture were not associated with the population rates of previous caesarean but increased by 35% per 1% increase in the population rate of intended vaginal delivery and in the subpopulation of women with previous caesarean delivery by 4% per 1% increase in the rate of intended vaginal delivery. National rates of uterine rupture were not associated with national rates of previous caesarean, but increased with rates of intended vaginal delivery after caesarean. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Complex rupture mechanism and topography control symmetry of mass-wasting pattern, 2010 Haiti earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorum, Tolga; van Westen, Cees J.; Korup, Oliver; van der Meijde, Mark; Fan, Xuanmei; van der Meer, Freek D.

2013-02-01

The 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake occurred in a complex deformation zone at the boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Combined geodetic, geological and seismological data posited that surface deformation was driven by rupture on the Léogâne blind thrust fault, while part of the rupture occurred as deep lateral slip on the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF). The earthquake triggered > 4490 landslides, mainly shallow, disrupted rock falls, debris-soil falls and slides, and a few lateral spreads, over an area of ~ 2150 km2. The regional distribution of these slope failures defies those of most similar earthquake-triggered landslide episodes reported previously. Most of the coseismic landslides did not proliferate in the hanging wall of the main rupture, but clustered instead at the junction of the blind Léogâne and EPGF ruptures, where topographic relief and hillslope steepness are above average. Also, low-relief areas subjected to high coseismic uplift were prone to lesser hanging wall slope instability than previous studies would suggest. We argue that a combined effect of complex rupture dynamics and topography primarily control this previously rarely documented landslide pattern. Compared to recent thrust fault-earthquakes of similar magnitudes elsewhere, we conclude that lower static stress drop, mean fault displacement, and blind ruptures of the 2010 Haiti earthquake resulted in fewer, smaller, and more symmetrically distributed landslides than previous studies would suggest. Our findings caution against overly relying on across-the-board models of slope stability response to seismic ground shaking.

Hitherto unknown shear rupture mechanism as a source of instability in intact hard rocks at highly confined compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasov, Boris G.

2014-05-01

Today, frictional shear resistance along pre-existing faults is considered to be the lower limit on rock shear strength for confined conditions corresponding to the seismogenic layer. This paper introduces a recently identified shear rupture mechanism providing a paradoxical feature of hard rocks - the possibility of shear rupture propagation through the highly confined intact rock mass at shear stress levels significantly less than frictional strength. In the new mechanism, the rock failure associated with consecutive creation of small slabs (known as ‘domino-blocks') from the intact rock in the rupture tip is driven by a fan-shaped domino structure representing the rupture head. The fan-head combines such unique features as: extremely low shear resistance, self-sustaining stress intensification, and self-unbalancing conditions. Due to this the failure process caused by the mechanism is very dynamic and violent. This makes it impossible to directly observe and study the mechanism and can explain why the mechanism has not been detected before. This paper provides physical motivation for the mechanism, based upon side effects accompanying the failure process. Physical and mathematical models of the mechanism presented in the paper explain unique and paradoxical features of the mechanism. The new shear rupture mechanism allows a novel point of view for understanding the nature of spontaneous failure processes in hard rocks including earthquakes.

Transpressional Rupture Cascade of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbin; Feng, Guangcai; Meng, Lingsen; Zhang, Ailin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Bürgmann, Roland; Fang, Lihua

2018-03-01

Large earthquakes often do not occur on a simple planar fault but involve rupture of multiple geometrically complex faults. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, involved the rupture of at least 21 faults, propagating from southwest to northeast for about 180 km. Here we combine space geodesy and seismology techniques to study subsurface fault geometry, slip distribution, and the kinematics of the rupture. Our finite-fault slip model indicates that the fault motion changes from predominantly right-lateral slip near the epicenter to transpressional slip in the northeast with a maximum coseismic surface displacement of about 10 m near the intersection between the Kekerengu and Papatea faults. Teleseismic back projection imaging shows that rupture speed was overall slow (1.4 km/s) but faster on individual fault segments (approximately 2 km/s) and that the conjugate, oblique-reverse, north striking faults released the largest high-frequency energy. We show that the linking Conway-Charwell faults aided in propagation of rupture across the step over from the Humps fault zone to the Hope fault. Fault slip cascaded along the Jordan Thrust, Kekerengu, and Needles faults, causing stress perturbations that activated two major conjugate faults, the Hundalee and Papatea faults. Our results shed important light on the study of earthquakes and seismic hazard evaluation in geometrically complex fault systems.

Linking interseismic deformation with coseismic slip using dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; He, B.; Weng, H.

2017-12-01

The largest earthquakes on earth occur at subduction zones, sometimes accompanied by devastating tsunamis. Reducing losses from megathrust earthquakes and tsunami demands accurate estimate of rupture scenarios for future earthquakes. Interseismic locking distribution derived from geodetic observations is often used to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, how to quantitatively estimate the coseismic slip from the locking distribution remains challenging. Here we derive the coseismic rupture process of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica, earthquake from interseismic locking distribution using spontaneous rupture simulation. We construct a three-dimensional elastic medium with a curved fault, which is governed by the linear slip-weakening law. The initial stress on the fault is set based on the build-up stress inferred from locking and the dynamic friction coefficient from fast-speed sliding experiments. Our numerical results of coseismic slip distribution, moment rate function and final earthquake moment are well consistent with those derived from seismic and geodetic observations. Furthermore, we find that the epicentral locations affect rupture scenarios and may lead to various sizes of earthquakes given the heterogeneous stress distribution. In the Nicoya region, less than half of rupture initiation regions where the locking degree is greater than 0.6 can develop into large earthquakes (Mw > 7.2). The results of location-dependent earthquake magnitudes underscore the necessity of conducting a large number of simulations to quantitatively evaluate seismic hazard from the interseismic locking models.

Higher leukocyte count predicts 3-month poor outcome of ruptured cerebral aneurysms.

PubMed

Yao, Pei-Sen; Chen, Guo-Rong; Xie, Xue-Ling; Shang-Guan, Huang-Cheng; Gao, Jin-Zhen; Lin, Yuan-Xiang; Zheng, Shu-Fa; Lin, Zhang-Ya; Kang, De-Zhi

2018-04-11

It is not fully established whether leukocyte can predict the poor outcome for ruptured cerebral aneurysms (CA) or not. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 428 patients with ruptured CA between 2010 and 2015. Patients' demographic data, including gender, age, history of smoking, alcohol, hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, Hunt-Hess and Fisher grade, occurrence of hydrocephalus, aneurysm location, time to surgery, delayed ischemic neurological deficit (DIND) and peak leukocyte of blood test from day 1 to 3 after aneurysmal rupture were recorded and analyzed. In the multivariable analysis model, gender, Fisher grade, time to surgery and hydrocephalus were not relevant to poor outcome. However, Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were significantly associated with adverse outcome. The respective increased risks were 5.2- (OR5.24, 95% CI 1.67-16.50, p = 0.005), 6.2-(OR 6.24, 95% CI 3.55-10.99, p < 0.001) and 10.9-fold (OR 9.35, 95% CI 5.98-19.97, p < 0.001). The study revealed that Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were independent risk factors for poor outcome of ruptured CA at 3 months. Higher leukocyte count is a convenient and useful marker to predict 3-month poor outcome for ruptured CA.

Creep rupture of polymer-matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brinson, H. F.; Morris, D. H.; Griffith, W. I.

1981-01-01

The time-dependent creep-rupture process in graphite-epoxy laminates is examined as a function of temperature and stress level. Moisture effects are not considered. An accelerated characterization method of composite-laminate viscoelastic modulus and strength properties is reviewed. It is shown that lamina-modulus master curves can be obtained using a minimum of normally performed quality-control-type testing. Lamina-strength master curves, obtained by assuming a constant-strain-failure criterion, are presented along with experimental data, and reasonably good agreement is shown to exist between the two. Various phenomenological delayed failure models are reviewed and two (the modified rate equation and the Larson-Miller parameter method) are compared to creep-rupture data with poor results.

Dynamics of delayed triggering in multi-segmented foreshock sequence: Evidence from the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arai, H.; Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence hit the SW Japan, from April 14th to 16th and its sequence includes two M6-class foreshocks and the main shock (Mw 7.0). Importantly, the detailed surface displacement caused solely by the two foreshocks could be captured by a SAR observation isolated from the mainshock deformation. The foreshocks ruptured the previously mapped Hinagu fault and their hypocentral locations and the aftershock distribution indicates the involvement of two different subparallel faults. Therefore we assumed that the 1st and the 2nd foreshocks respectively ruptured each of the subparallel faults (faults A and B). One of the interesting points of this earthquake is that the two major foreshocks had a temporal gap of 2.5 hours even though the fault A and B are quite close by each other. This suggests that the stress perturbation due to the 1st foreshock is not large enough to trigger the 2nd one right away but that it's large enough to bring about the following earthquake after a delay time.We aim to reproduce the foreshock sequence such as rupture jumping over the subparallel faults by using dynamic rupture simulations. We employed a spatiotemporal-boundary integral equation method accelerated by the Fast Domain Partitioning Method (Ando, 2016, GJI) since this method allows us to construct a complex fault geometry in 3D media. Our model has two faults and a free ground surface. We conducted rupture simulation with various sets of parameters to identify the optimal condition describing the observation.Our simulation results are roughly categorized into 3 cases with regard to the criticality for the rupture jumping. The case 1 (supercritical case) shows the fault A and B ruptured consecutively without any temporal gap. In the case 2 (nearly critical), the rupture on the fault B started with a temporal gap after the fault A finished rupturing, which is what we expected as a reproduction. In the case 3 (subcritical), only the fault A ruptured and its rupture did not transfer to the fault B. We succeed in reproducing rupture jumping over two faults with a temporal gap due to the nucleation by taking account of a velocity strengthening (direct) effect. With a detailed analysis of the case 2, we can constrain ranges of parameters strictly, and this gives us deeper insights into the physics underlying the delayed foreshock activity.

Dynamic modeling of normal faults of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2017-04-01

The earthquake sequence of the Central Italy in 2016 are characterized mainly by the Mw6.0 24th August, Mw5.9 26th October and Mw6.4 30th October as well as two Mw5.4 earthquakes (24th August, 26th October) (catalogue INGV). They all show normal faulting mechanisms corresponding to the Apennines's tectonics. They are aligned briefly along NNW-SSE axis, and they may not be on a single continuous fault plane. Therefore, dynamic rupture modeling of sequences should be carried out supposing co-planar normal multiple segments. We apply a Boundary Domain Method (BDM, Goto and Bielak, GJI, 2008) coupling a boundary integral equation method and a domain-based method, namely a finite difference method in this study. The Mw6.0 24th August earthquake is modeled. We use the basic information of hypocenter position, focal mechanism and potential ruptured dimension from the INGV catalogue and Tinti et al., GRL, 2016), and begin with a simple condition (homogeneous boundary condition). From our preliminary simulations, it is shown that a uniformly extended rupture model does not fit the near-field ground motions and localized heterogeneity would be required.

Reproducing the scaling laws for Slow and Fast ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanet, Pierre; Bhat, Harsha; Madariaga, Raúl

2017-04-01

Modelling long term behaviour of large, natural fault systems, that are geometrically complex, is a challenging problem. This is why most of the research so far has concentrated on modelling the long term response of single planar fault system. To overcome this limitation, we appeal to a novel algorithm called the Fast Multipole Method which was developed in the context of modelling gravitational N-body problems. This method allows us to decrease the computational complexity of the calculation from O(N2) to O(N log N), N being the number of discretised elements on the fault. We then adapted this method to model the long term quasi-dynamic response of two faults, with step-over like geometry, that are governed by rate and state friction laws. We assume the faults have spatially uniform rate weakening friction. The results show that when stress interaction between faults is accounted, a complex spectrum of slip (including slow-slip events, dynamic ruptures and partial ruptures) emerges naturally. The simulated slow-slip and dynamic events follow the scaling law inferred by Ide et al. 2007 i. e. M ∝ T for slow-slip events and M ∝ T2 (in 2D) for dynamic events.

Probabilistic approach for earthquake scenarios in the Marmara region from dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo

2014-05-01

The Marmara region (Turkey) along the North Anatolian fault is known as a high potential of large earthquakes in the next decades. For the purpose of seismic hazard/risk evaluation, kinematic and dynamic source models have been proposed (e.g. Oglesby and Mai, GJI, 2012). In general, the simulated earthquake scenarios depend on the hypothesis and cannot be verified before the expected earthquake. We then introduce a probabilistic insight to give the initial/boundary conditions to statistically analyze the simulated scenarios. We prepare different fault geometry models, tectonic loading and hypocenter locations. We keep the same framework of the simulation procedure as the dynamic rupture process of the adjacent 1999 Izmit earthquake (Aochi and Madariaga, BSSA, 2003), as the previous models were able to reproduce the seismological/geodetic aspects of the event. Irregularities in fault geometry play a significant role to control the rupture progress, and a relatively large change in geometry may work as barriers. The variety of the simulate earthquake scenarios should be useful for estimating the variety of the expected ground motion.

A single FPGA-based portable ultrasound imaging system for point-of-care applications.

PubMed

Kim, Gi-Duck; Yoon, Changhan; Kye, Sang-Bum; Lee, Youngbae; Kang, Jeeun; Yoo, Yangmo; Song, Tai-kyong

2012-07-01

We present a cost-effective portable ultrasound system based on a single field-programmable gate array (FPGA) for point-of-care applications. In the portable ultrasound system developed, all the ultrasound signal and image processing modules, including an effective 32-channel receive beamformer with pseudo-dynamic focusing, are embedded in an FPGA chip. For overall system control, a mobile processor running Linux at 667 MHz is used. The scan-converted ultrasound image data from the FPGA are directly transferred to the system controller via external direct memory access without a video processing unit. The potable ultrasound system developed can provide real-time B-mode imaging with a maximum frame rate of 30, and it has a battery life of approximately 1.5 h. These results indicate that the single FPGA-based portable ultrasound system developed is able to meet the processing requirements in medical ultrasound imaging while providing improved flexibility for adapting to emerging POC applications.

Slope Stability Analysis In Seismic Areas Of The Northern Apennines (Italy)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo Presti, D.; Fontana, T.; Marchetti, D.

2008-07-08

Several research works have been published on the slope stability in the northern Tuscany (central Italy) and particularly in the seismic areas of Garfagnana and Lunigiana (Lucca and Massa-Carrara districts), aimed at analysing the slope stability under static and dynamic conditions and mapping the landslide hazard. In addition, in situ and laboratory investigations are available for the study area, thanks to the activities undertaken by the Tuscany Seismic Survey. Based on such a huge information the co-seismic stability of few ideal slope profiles have been analysed by means of Limit equilibrium method LEM - (pseudo-static) and Newmark sliding block analysismore » (pseudo-dynamic). The analysis--results gave indications about the most appropriate seismic coefficient to be used in pseudo-static analysis after establishing allowable permanent displacement. Such indications are commented in the light of the Italian and European prescriptions for seismic stability analysis with pseudo-static approach. The stability conditions, obtained from the previous analyses, could be used to define microzonation criteria for the study area.« less

Rupture mechanism of liquid crystal thin films realized by large-scale molecular simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Trung D; Carrillo, Jan-Michael Y; Brown, W Michael

2014-01-01

The ability of liquid crystal (LC) molecules to respond to changes in their environment makes them an interesting candidate for thin film applications, particularly in bio-sensing, bio-mimicking devices, and optics. Yet the understanding of the (in)stability of this family of thin films has been limited by the inherent challenges encountered by experiment and continuum models. Using unprecedented largescale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we address the rupture origin of LC thin films wetting a solid substrate at length scales similar to those in experiment. Our simulations show the key signatures of spinodal instability in isotropic and nematic films on top ofmore » thermal nucleation, and importantly, for the first time, evidence of a common rupture mechanism independent of initial thickness and LC orientational ordering. We further demonstrate that the primary driving force for rupture is closely related to the tendency of the LC mesogens to recover their local environment in the bulk state. Our study not only provides new insights into the rupture mechanism of liquid crystal films, but also sets the stage for future investigations of thin film systems using peta-scale molecular dynamics simulations.« less

Creep and rupture of an ODS alloy with high stress rupture ductility. [Oxide Dispersion Strengthened

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcalarney, M. E.; Arsons, R. M.; Howson, T. E.; Tien, J. K.; Baranow, S.

1982-01-01

The creep and stress rupture properties of an oxide (Y2O3) dispersion strengthened nickel-base alloy, which also is strengthened by gamma-prime precipitates, was studied at 760 and 1093 C. At both temperatures, the alloy YDNiCrAl exhibits unusually high stress rupture ductility as measured by both elongation and reduction in area. Failure was transgranular, and different modes of failure were observed including crystallographic fracture at intermediate temperatures and tearing or necking almost to a chisel point at higher temperatures. While the rupture ductility was high, the creep strength of the alloy was low relative to conventional gamma prime strengthened superalloys in the intermediate temperature range and to ODS alloys in the higher temperature range. These findings are discussed with respect to the alloy composition; the strengthening oxide phases, which are inhomogeneously dispersed; the grain morphology, which is coarse and elongated and exhibits many included grains; and the second phase inclusion particles occurring at grain boundaries and in the matrix. The creep properties, in particular the high stress dependencies and high creep activation energies measured, are discussed with respect to the resisting stress model of creep in particle strengthened alloys.

Late Pleistocene - Holocene ruptures of the Lima Reservoir fault, SW Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasio, David J.; Majerowicz, Christina N.; Pazzaglia, Frank J.; Regalla, Christine A.

2010-12-01

Active tectonics within the northern Basin and Range province provide a natural laboratory for the study of normal fault growth, linkage, and interaction. Here, we present new geologic mapping and morphologic fault-scarp modeling within the Centennial Valley, Montana to characterize Pleistocene - Holocene ruptures of the young and active Lima Reservoir fault. Geologic relationships and rupture ages indicate Middle Pleistocene activity on the Henry Gulch (>50 ka and 23-10 ka), Trail Creek (>43 ka and ˜13 ka), and reservoir (˜23 ka) segments. Offset Quaternary deposits also record Holocene rupture of the reservoir segment (˜8 ka), but unfaulted modern streams show that no segments of the Lima Reservoir fault have experienced a large earthquake in at least several millennia. The clustered pattern of rupture ages on the Lima Reservoir fault segments suggests a seismogenic linkage though segment length and spacing make a physical connection at depth unlikely. Trail Creek and reservoir segment slip rates were non-steady and appear to be increasing. The fault helps accommodate differential horizontal surface velocity measured by GPS geodesy across the boundary between the northern Basin and Range province and the Snake River Plain.

Patient-specific finite element analysis of ascending aorta aneurysms

PubMed Central

Martin, Caitlin; Elefteriades, John

2015-01-01

Catastrophic ascending aorta aneurysm (AsAA) dissection and rupture can be prevented by elective surgical repair, but identifying individuals at risk remains a challenge. Typically the decision to operate is based primarily on the overall aneurysm size, which may not be a reliable indicator of risk. In this study, AsAA inflation and rupture was simulated in 27 patient-specific finite element models constructed from clinical CT imaging data and tissue mechanical testing data from matching patients. These patients included n = 8 with concomitant bicuspid aortic valve (BAV), n = 10 with bovine aortic arch (BAA), and n = 10 with neither BAV nor BAA. AsAA rupture risk was found to increase with elevated systolic wall stress and tissue stiffness. The aortic size index was sufficient for identifying the patients with the lowest risk of rupture, but unsuitable for delineating between patients at moderate and high risk. There was no correlation between BAV or BAA and AsAA rupture risk; however, the AsAA morphology was different among these patients. These results support the use of mechanical parameters such as vessel wall stress and tissue stiffness for AsAA presurgical evaluation. PMID:25770248

Predictability of catastrophic events: Material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth

PubMed Central

Sornette, Didier

2002-01-01

We propose that catastrophic events are “outliers” with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. We describe a unifying approach for modeling and predicting these catastrophic events or “ruptures,” that is, sudden transitions from a quiescent state to a crisis. Such ruptures involve interactions between structures at many different scales. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence, and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes, and human parturition (birth). Future improvements will involve combining ideas and tools from statistical physics and artificial/computational intelligence, to identify and classify possible universal structures that occur at different scales, and to develop application-specific methodologies to use these structures for prediction of the “crises” known to arise in each application of interest. We live on a planet and in a society with intermittent dynamics rather than a state of equilibrium, and so there is a growing and urgent need to sensitize students and citizens to the importance and impacts of ruptures in their multiple forms. PMID:11875205

In Vivo Molecular Imaging of Acute and Subacute Thrombosis Using a Fibrin-Binding Magnetic Resonance Imaging Contrast Agent

PubMed Central

Botnar, René M.; Perez, Alexandra S.; Witte, Sonia; Wiethoff, Andrea J.; Laredo, James; Hamilton, James; Quist, William; Parsons, Edward C.; Vaidya, Anand; Kolodziej, Andrew; Barrett, John A.; Graham, Philip B.; Weisskoff, Robert M.; Manning, Warren J.; Johnstone, Michael T.

2010-01-01

Background Plaque rupture with subsequent thrombosis is recognized as the underlying pathophysiology of most acute coronary syndromes and stroke. Thus, direct thrombus visualization may be beneficial for both diagnosis and guidance of therapy. We sought to test the feasibility of direct imaging of acute and subacute thrombosis using MRI together with a novel fibrin-binding gadolinium-labeled peptide, EP-1873, in an experimental animal model of plaque rupture and thrombosis. Methods and Results Fifteen male New Zealand White rabbits (weight, ≈3.5 kg) were made atherosclerotic by feeding a high-cholesterol diet after endothelial aortic injury. Plaque rupture was then induced with the use of Russell’s viper venom (RVV) and histamine. Subsequently, MRI of the subrenal aorta was performed before RVV, after RVV, and after EP-1873. Histology was performed on regions suggested by MRI to contain thrombus. Nine rabbits (60%) developed plaque rupture and thrombus, including 25 thrombi visually apparent on MRI as “hot spots” after injection of EP-1873. Histological correlation confirmed all 25 thrombi (100%), with no thrombi seen in the other regions of the aorta. In the remaining 6 rabbits (control) without plaque rupture, no thrombus was observed on the MR images or on histology. Conclusions We demonstrate the feasibility of in vivo “molecular” MRI for the detection of acute and subacute thrombosis using a novel fibrin-binding MRI contrast agent in an animal model of atherosclerosis and acute/subacute thrombosis. Potential clinical applications include thrombus detection in acute coronary syndromes and stroke. PMID:15066940

Apoptosis of rabbit retinal cell after eyeball rupture.

PubMed

Tian, Xue-Min; Zhu, Yu

2013-04-13

To establish rabbit eyeball rupture model by air gun in order to observe and analyze the early injury condition and reasons of retinal cell after eyeball rupture. Forty eight healthy rabbits were randomly divided into control group and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h after injury groups. After anesthesia, the rabbit eyeball rupture model was established by air gun. Then the early pathological changes of rabbit retina were observed, and apoptotic index (AI), oncosis index (OI), the relationship between the expression amounts of apoptosis-related genes and AI were analyzed. Obvious pathological lesion appeared in retina 6 h after injury. Irreversible damage occurred 12-24 h after injury. The results of AI and OI indicated that the OI peak appeared 6 h after injury and then gradually declined, while the AI increased with the prolongation of time, and the AI was higher than OI in 12 h after injury. Immunohistochemical results indicated that there was no obvious bcl-2 protein expression change. Compared with the control group and the 3, 6, 12 and 24 h after the injury groups, the expressions of p53 and Caspase-3 were significantly improved and peaked at 12 h (P<0.01). Positive correlation existed among p53, Caspase-3 expression amount and cell apoptosis amount. Apoptosis and oncosis of visual cells are the main reasons of retinal cell injury. p53 and Caspase-3 are the important factors in promoting the retinal cell apoptosis after eyeball rupture. Copyright © 2013 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic models of earthquake ground motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, Stephen; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Yuehua; Rahman, Shariftur

2011-01-01

Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.

Nonlinear dynamic failure process of tunnel-fault system in response to strong seismic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhihua; Lan, Hengxing; Zhang, Yongshuang; Gao, Xing; Li, Langping

2013-03-01

Strong earthquakes and faults have significant effect on the stability capability of underground tunnel structures. This study used a 3-Dimensional Discrete Element model and the real records of ground motion in the Wenchuan earthquake to investigate the dynamic response of tunnel-fault system. The typical tunnel-fault system was composed of one planned railway tunnel and one seismically active fault. The discrete numerical model was prudentially calibrated by means of the comparison between the field survey and numerical results of ground motion. It was then used to examine the detailed quantitative information on the dynamic response characteristics of tunnel-fault system, including stress distribution, strain, vibration velocity and tunnel failure process. The intensive tunnel-fault interaction during seismic loading induces the dramatic stress redistribution and stress concentration in the intersection of tunnel and fault. The tunnel-fault system behavior is characterized by the complicated nonlinear dynamic failure process in response to a real strong seismic event. It can be qualitatively divided into 5 main stages in terms of its stress, strain and rupturing behaviors: (1) strain localization, (2) rupture initiation, (3) rupture acceleration, (4) spontaneous rupture growth and (5) stabilization. This study provides the insight into the further stability estimation of underground tunnel structures under the combined effect of strong earthquakes and faults.

Rupture Characteristics of the 25 November 2016 Aketao Earthquake ( M w 6.6) in Eastern Pamir Revealed by GPS and Teleseismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jie; Liu, Gang; Qiao, Xuejun; Xiong, Wei; Wang, Xiaoqiang; Liu, Daiqin; Sun, Jianing; Yushan, Ailixiati; Yusan, Sulitan; Fang, Wei; Wang, Qi

2018-02-01

The 25 November 2016 Aketao, Xinjiang earthquake occurred on the northeastern margin of the Pamir plateau, rupturing the Muji fault on the northern segment of the Kongur Extensional System. We collected coseismic offsets at 7 GPS sites, which show that the fault experienced significate dextral slip with a near-field geodetic displacement of up to 12 cm along the strike. The joint inversion of GPS data and teleseismic P waveforms suggests a complex rupture pattern characterized by the unilateral propagation slip from the epicenter to the southeast for 60 km with a total seismic moment of 1.3 × 1019 Nm, corresponding to a magnitude of M w 6.7 earthquake. Our model of slip distribution shows two major slip patches with a slip amplitude up to 0.6 m, one located at shallow depths of 0-8 km close to the hypocenter with apparent surface breaks and the other, 40 km to the southeast, buried at a greater depth of 12 km. The rupture is dominated by a right-lateral strike slip with significant normal-slip components. The near-field GPS data enhances the spatial resolution of source model. Based on the preferred slip model, the static Coulomb Failure Stress change caused by 2016 Aketao earthquake suggests that the unzipped western and eastern ends of Muji fault and the northern segment of Kungai Fault are significantly promoted.

Coulomb Mechanics And Landscape Geometry Explain Landslide Size Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeandet, L.; Steer, P.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2017-12-01

It is generally observed that the dimensions of large bedrock landslides follow power-law scaling relationships. In particular, the non-cumulative frequency distribution (PDF) of bedrock landslide area is well characterized by a negative power-law above a critical size, with an exponent 2.4. However, the respective role of bedrock mechanical properties, landscape shape and triggering mechanisms on the scaling properties of landslide dimensions are still poorly understood. Yet, unravelling the factors that control this distribution is required to better estimate the total volume of landslides triggered by large earthquakes or storms. To tackle this issue, we develop a simple probabilistic 1D approach to compute the PDF of rupture depths in a given landscape. The model is applied to randomly sampled points along hillslopes of studied digital elevation models. At each point location, the model determines the range of depth and angle leading to unstable rupture planes, by applying a simple Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion only to the rupture planes that intersect downhill surface topography. This model therefore accounts for both rock mechanical properties, friction and cohesion, and landscape shape. We show that this model leads to realistic landslide depth distribution, with a power-law arising when the number of samples is high enough. The modeled PDF of landslide size obtained for several landscapes match the ones from earthquakes-driven landslides catalogues for the same landscape. In turn, this allows us to invert landslide effective mechanical parameters, friction and cohesion, associated to those specific events, including Chi-Chi, Wenchuan, Niigata and Gorkha earthquakes. The cohesion and friction ranges (25-35 degrees and 5-20 kPa) are in good agreement with previously inverted values. Our results demonstrate that reduced complexity mechanics is efficient to model the distribution of unstable depths, and show the role of landscape variability in landslide size distribution.

Modeling Creep Effects in Advanced SiC/SiC Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Jerry; DiCarlo, James

2006-01-01

Because advanced SiC/SiC composites are projected to be used for aerospace components with large thermal gradients at high temperatures, efforts are on-going at NASA Glenn to develop approaches for modeling the anticipated creep behavior of these materials and its subsequent effects on such key composite properties as internal residual stress, proportional limit stress, ultimate tensile strength, and rupture life. Based primarily on in-plane creep data for 2D panels, this presentation describes initial modeling progress at applied composite stresses below matrix cracking for some high performance SiC/SiC composite systems recently developed at NASA. Studies are described to develop creep and rupture models using empirical, mechanical analog, and mechanistic approaches, and to implement them into finite element codes for improved component design and life modeling

A recent deep earthquake doublet in light of long-term evolution of Nazca subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahradník, J.; Čížková, H.; Bina, C. R.; Sokos, E.; Janský, J.; Tavera, H.; Carvalho, J.

2017-03-01

Earthquake faulting at ~600 km depth remains puzzling. Here we present a new kinematic interpretation of two Mw7.6 earthquakes of November 24, 2015. In contrast to teleseismic analysis of this doublet, we use regional seismic data providing robust two-point source models, further validated by regional back-projection and rupture-stop analysis. The doublet represents segmented rupture of a ˜30-year gap in a narrow, deep fault zone, fully consistent with the stress field derived from neighbouring 1976-2015 earthquakes. Seismic observations are interpreted using a geodynamic model of regional subduction, incorporating realistic rheology and major phase transitions, yielding a model slab that is nearly vertical in the deep-earthquake zone but stagnant below 660 km, consistent with tomographic imaging. Geodynamically modelled stresses match the seismically inferred stress field, where the steeply down-dip orientation of compressive stress axes at ˜600 km arises from combined viscous and buoyant forces resisting slab penetration into the lower mantle and deformation associated with slab buckling and stagnation. Observed fault-rupture geometry, demonstrated likelihood of seismic triggering, and high model temperatures in young subducted lithosphere, together favour nanometric crystallisation (and associated grain-boundary sliding) attending high-pressure dehydration as a likely seismogenic mechanism, unless a segment of much older lithosphere is present at depth.

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 mainshock: deep initiation triggered by the shallow foreshocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.; Wei, S.

2017-12-01

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 earthquake and its Mw6.2 foreshock struck the central Kyushu region in mid-April, 2016. The surface ruptures are characterized with multiple fault segments and a mix of strike-slip and normal motion extended from the intersection area of Hinagu and Futagawa faults to the southwest of Mt. Aso. Despite complex surface ruptures, most of the finite fault inversions use two fault segments to approximate the fault geometry. To study the rupture process and the complex fault geometry of this earthquake, we performed a multiple point source inversion for the mainshock using the data on 93 K-net and Kik-net stations. With path calibration from the Mw6.0 foreshock, we selected the frequency ranges for the Pnl waves (0.02 0.26 Hz) and surface waves (0.02 0.12 Hz), as well as the components that can be well modeled with the 1D velocity model. Our four-point-source results reveal a unilateral rupture towards Mt. Aso and varying fault geometries. The first sub-event is a high angle ( 79°) right-lateral strike-slip event at the depth of 16 km on the north end of the Hinagu fault. Notably the two M>6 foreshocks is located by our previous studies near the north end of the Hinagu fault at the depth of 5 9 km, which may give rise to the stress concentration at depth. The following three sub-events are distributed along the surface rupture of the Futagawa fault, with focal depths within 4 10 km. Their focal mechanisms present similar right-lateral fault slips with relatively small dip angles (62 67°) and apparent normal-fault component. Thus, the mainshock rupture initiated from the relatively deep part of the Hinagu fault and propagated through the fault-bend toward NE along the relatively shallow part of the Futagawa fault until it was terminated near Mt. Aso. Based on the four-point-source solution, we conducted a finite-fault inversion and obtained a kinematic rupture model of the mainshock. We then performed the Coulomb Stress analyses on the two foreshocks and the mainshock. The results support that the stress alternation after the foreshocks may have triggered the failure on the fault plane of the Mw7.1 earthquake. Therefore, the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence is dominated by a series of large triggering events whose initiation is associated with the geometric barrier in the intersection of the Futagawa and Hinagu faults.

Dual Megathrust Slip Behaviors of the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Huang, H.; Burgmann, R.; Ampuero, J. P.; Strader, A. E.

2014-12-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A M 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of Northern Chile. This event was preceded by a 2-week-long foreshock sequence including a M 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes are found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock area, suggesting a large scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence time of repeating earthquakes highlights the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while other repeaters occurred both before and after the mainshock in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatial and temporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrate the essential role of propagating aseismic slip in leading up to the mainshock and aftershock activities. Various finite fault models indicate that the coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show slow initiation with low amplitude moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady initiation at high frequency (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the high-frequency rupture remains within an area of low gravity anomaly, suggesting possible upper-crustal structures that promote high-frequency generation. Back-projection also shows an episode of reverse rupture propagation which suggests a delayed failure of asperities in the foreshock area. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

The history of late holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Personius, Stephen; Olig, Susan S; Crone, Anthony J.; Hylland, Michael D.; Lund, William R; Schwartz, David P.

2017-01-01

The Wasatch fault (WFZ)—Utah’s longest and most active normal fault—forms a prominent eastern boundary to the Basin and Range Province in northern Utah. To provide paleoseismic data for a Wasatch Front regional earthquake forecast, we synthesized paleoseismic data to define the timing and displacements of late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central five segments of the WFZ. Our analysis yields revised histories of large (M ~7) surface-faulting earthquakes on the segments, as well as estimates of earthquake recurrence and vertical slip rate. We constrain the timing of four to six earthquakes on each of the central segments, which together yields a history of at least 24 surface-faulting earthquakes since ~6 ka. Using earthquake data for each segment, inter-event recurrence intervals range from about 0.6 to 2.5 kyr, and have a mean of 1.2 kyr. Mean recurrence, based on closed seismic intervals, is ~1.1–1.3 kyr per segment, and when combined with mean vertical displacements per segment of 1.7–2.6 m, yield mean vertical slip rates of 1.3–2.0 mm/yr per segment. These data refine the late Holocene behavior of the central WFZ; however, a significant source of uncertainty is whether structural complexities that define the segments of the WFZ act as hard barriers to ruptures propagating along the fault. Thus, we evaluate fault rupture models including both single-segment and multi-segment ruptures, and define 3–17-km-wide spatial uncertainties in the segment boundaries. These alternative rupture models and segment-boundary zones honor the WFZ paleoseismic data, take into account the spatial and temporal limitations of paleoseismic data, and allow for complex ruptures such as partial-segment and spillover ruptures. Our data and analyses improve our understanding of the complexities in normal-faulting earthquake behavior and provide geological inputs for regional earthquake-probability and seismic hazard assessments.

Strong Ground Motion Analysis and Afterslip Modeling of Earthquakes near Mendocino Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, J.; McGuire, J. J.

2017-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ) is one of the most seismically active regions in North America in response to the ongoing motions between North America, Pacific and Gorda plates. Earthquakes near the MTJ come from multiple types of faults due to the interaction boundaries between the three plates and the strong internal deformation within them. Understanding the stress levels that drive the earthquake rupture on the various types of faults and estimating the locking state of the subduction interface are especially important for earthquake hazard assessment. However due to lack of direct offshore seismic and geodetic records, only a few earthquakes' rupture processes have been well studied and the locking state of the subducted slab is not well constrained. In this study we first use the second moment inversion method to study the rupture process of the January 28, 2015 Mw 5.7 strike slip earthquake on Mendocino transform fault using strong ground motion records from Cascadia Initiative community experiment as well as onshore seismic networks. We estimate the rupture dimension to be of 6 km by 3 km and a stress drop of 7 MPa on the transform fault. Next we investigate the frictional locking state on the subduction interface through afterslip simulation based on coseismic rupture models of this 2015 earthquake and a Mw 6.5 intraplate eathquake inside Gorda plate whose slip distribution is inverted using onshore geodetic network in previous study. Different depths for velocity strengthening frictional properties to start at the downdip of the locked zone are used to simulate afterslip scenarios and predict the corresponding surface deformation (GPS) movements onshore. Our simulations indicate that locking depth on the slab surface is at least 14 km, which confirms that the next M8 earthquake rupture will likely reach the coastline and strong shaking should be expected near the coast.

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, Manuel G.; Mark, Robert K.; Lienkaemper, James J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors.The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation in which the variance results primarily from measurement errors.Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are grouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others.Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating Ms with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement.Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of Ms on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such zones.

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, M.G.; Mark, R.K.; Lienkaemper, J.J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which necessarily make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors. The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation with the variance resulting from measurement errors. Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are qrouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others. Subdivision of the data results in too few data for some fault types and regions, and for these only regressions using all of the data as a group are reported. Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating M with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement. Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of MS on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such zones.

The bond rupture force for sulfur chains calculated from quantum chemistry simulations and its relevance to the tensile strength of vulcanized rubber

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, David Edward; Barber, John L.

From quantum chemistry simulations using density functional theory, we obtain the total electronic energy of an eight-atom sulfur chain as its end-to-end distance is extended until S–S bond rupture occurs. We find that a sulfur chain can be extended by about 40% beyond its nominally straight conformation, where it experiences rupture at an end-to-end tension of about 1.5 nN. Using this rupture force as the chain failure limit in an explicit polymer network simulation model (EPnet), we predict the tensile failure stress for sulfur crosslinked (vulcanized) natural rubber. Furthermore, quantitative agreement with published experimental data for the failure stress ismore » obtained in these simulations if we assume that only about 30% of the sulfur chains produce viable network crosslinks. Surprisingly, we also find that the failure stress of a rubber network does not scale linearly with the chain failure force limit.« less

Occlusion and rupture of ex vivo capillary bifurcation due to acoustic droplet vaporization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yi; Qin, Dui; Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Lei; Bouakaz, Ayache; Wan, Mingxi

2018-06-01

Gas embolotherapy (GE) consists in the occlusion of tumor blood vessels using gas emboli induced by acoustic droplet vaporization (ADV), to create tumor starvation and localized drug delivery. Therefore, the occlusion and rupture of capillary bifurcation due to ADV was investigated in an ex vivo rat mesentery model using a confocal acousto-optical high-speed microscope system. Following ADV bubble formation, coalescence, and translational movement, the growing bubbles lodged in and then occluded two different capillary bifurcations. Capillary rupture was induced at the bubble lodging area, immediately followed by gas extravasation and bubble dislodging. Before and after bubble lodgment/occlusion, a local microvessel invagination was observed due to the interactions between ADV bubbles and the microvessel itself, indicating a contribution to the capillary rupture. Understanding the transient dynamics of ADV bubble, the bubble-microvessel interaction and the consequent mechanical bio-effects in GE is of the paramount importance for developing and applying this approach in clinical practice.

Creep and stress rupture of a mechanically alloyed oxide dispersion and precipitation strengthened nickel-base superalloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howson, T. E.; Tien, J. K.; Mervyn, D. A.

1980-01-01

The creep and stress rupture behavior of a mechanically alloyed oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) and gamma-prime precipitation strengthened nickel-base alloy (alloy MA 6000E) was studied at intermediate and elevated temperatures. At 760 C, MA 6000E exhibits the high creep strength characteristic of nickel-base superalloys and at 1093 C the creep strength is superior to other ODS nickel-base alloys. The stress dependence of the creep rate is very sharp at both test temperatures and the apparent creep activation energy measured around 760 C is high, much larger in magnitude than the self-diffusion energy. Stress rupture in this large grain size material is transgranular and crystallographic cracking is observed. The rupture ductility is dependent on creep strain rate, but usually is low. These and accompanying microstructural results are discussed with respect to other ODS alloys and superalloys and the creep behavior is rationalized by invoking a recently-developed resisting stress model of creep in materials strengthened by second phase particles.

Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand.

PubMed

Hamling, Ian J; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; Clark, Kate; Elliott, John; Liang, Cunren; Fielding, Eric; Litchfield, Nicola; Villamor, Pilar; Wallace, Laura; Wright, Tim J; D'Anastasio, Elisabetta; Bannister, Stephen; Burbidge, David; Denys, Paul; Gentle, Paula; Howarth, Jamie; Mueller, Christof; Palmer, Neville; Pearson, Chris; Power, William; Barnes, Philip; Barrell, David J A; Van Dissen, Russ; Langridge, Robert; Little, Tim; Nicol, Andrew; Pettinga, Jarg; Rowland, Julie; Stirling, Mark

2017-04-14

On 14 November 2016, northeastern South Island of New Zealand was struck by a major moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.8 earthquake. Field observations, in conjunction with interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Global Positioning System, and seismology data, reveal this to be one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded. The rupture propagated northward for more than 170 kilometers along both mapped and unmapped faults before continuing offshore at the island's northeastern extent. Geodetic and field observations reveal surface ruptures along at least 12 major faults, including possible slip along the southern Hikurangi subduction interface; extensive uplift along much of the coastline; and widespread anelastic deformation, including the ~8-meter uplift of a fault-bounded block. This complex earthquake defies many conventional assumptions about the degree to which earthquake ruptures are controlled by fault segmentation and should motivate reevaluation of these issues in seismic hazard models. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Geotechnical reconnaissance of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.; Thompson, E.; Minasian, D.; Moss, R.E.S.; Collins, B.D.; Sitar, N.; Dreger, D.; Carver, G.

2004-01-01

The 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake resulted in 340 km of ruptures along three separate faults, causing widespread liquefaction in the fluvial deposits of the alpine valleys of the Alaska Range and eastern lowlands of the Tanana River. Areas affected by liquefaction are largely confined to Holocene alluvial deposits, man-made embankments, and backfills. Liquefaction damage, sparse surrounding the fault rupture in the western region, was abundant and severe on the eastern rivers: the Robertson, Slana, Tok, Chisana, Nabesna and Tanana Rivers. Synthetic seismograms from a kinematic source model suggest that the eastern region of the rupture zone had elevated strong-motion levels due to rupture directivity, supporting observations of elevated geotechnical damage. We use augered soil samples and shear-wave velocity profiles made with a portable apparatus for the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) to characterize soil properties and stiffness at liquefaction sites and three trans-Alaska pipeline pump station accelerometer locations. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Seismic shaking in the North China Basin expected from ruptures of a possible seismic gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Benchun; Liu, Dunyu; Yin, An

2017-05-01

A 160 km long seismic gap, which has not been ruptured over 8000 years, was identified recently in North China. In this study, we use a dynamic source model and a newly available high-resolution 3-D velocity structure to simulate long-period ground motion (up to 0.5 Hz) from possibly worst case rupture scenarios of the seismic gap. We find that the characteristics of the earthquake source and the local geologic structure play a critical role in controlling the amplitude and distribution of the simulated strong ground shaking. Rupture directivity and slip asperities can result in large-amplitude (i.e., >1 m/s) ground shaking near the fault, whereas long-duration shaking may occur within sedimentary basins. In particular, a deep and closed Quaternary basin between Beijing and Tianjin can lead to ground shaking of several tens of cm/s for more than 1 min. These results may provide a sound basis for seismic mitigation in one of the most populated regions in the world.

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Evolving Controversies and Uncertainties.

PubMed

Carino, Davide; Sarac, Timur P; Ziganshin, Bulat A; Elefteriades, John A

2018-06-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is defined as a permanent dilatation of the abdominal aorta that exceeds 3 cm. Most AAAs arise in the portion of abdominal aorta distal to the renal arteries and are defined as infrarenal. Most AAAs are totally asymptomatic until catastrophic rupture. The strongest predictor of AAA rupture is the diameter. Surgery is indicated to prevent rupture when the risk of rupture exceeds the risk of surgery. In this review, we aim to analyze this disease comprehensively, starting from an epidemiological perspective, exploring etiology and pathophysiology, and concluding with surgical controversies. We will pursue these goals by addressing eight specific questions regarding AAA: (1) Is the incidence of AAA increasing? (2) Are ultrasound screening programs for AAA effective? (3) What causes AAA: Genes versus environment? (4) Animal models: Are they really relevant? (5) What pathophysiology leads to AAA? (6) Indications for AAA surgery: Are surgeons over-eager to operate? (7) Elective AAA repair: Open or endovascular? (8) Emergency AAA repair: Open or endovascular?

The bond rupture force for sulfur chains calculated from quantum chemistry simulations and its relevance to the tensile strength of vulcanized rubber

DOE PAGES

Hanson, David Edward; Barber, John L.

2017-11-20

From quantum chemistry simulations using density functional theory, we obtain the total electronic energy of an eight-atom sulfur chain as its end-to-end distance is extended until S–S bond rupture occurs. We find that a sulfur chain can be extended by about 40% beyond its nominally straight conformation, where it experiences rupture at an end-to-end tension of about 1.5 nN. Using this rupture force as the chain failure limit in an explicit polymer network simulation model (EPnet), we predict the tensile failure stress for sulfur crosslinked (vulcanized) natural rubber. Furthermore, quantitative agreement with published experimental data for the failure stress ismore » obtained in these simulations if we assume that only about 30% of the sulfur chains produce viable network crosslinks. Surprisingly, we also find that the failure stress of a rubber network does not scale linearly with the chain failure force limit.« less

Deterministic Multiaxial Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancements for CARES/Creep Integrated Design Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama M.

1998-01-01

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep rupture criterion. However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of sum, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of Ns methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Rodgers, Arthur; Brocher, Thomas M.; Simpson, Robert W.; Dreger, Douglas; Petersson, N. Anders; Larsen, Shawn C.; Ma, Shuo; Jachens, Robert C.

2010-01-01

We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario earthquakes (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with about 50% of the urban area experiencing modified Mercalli intensity VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18 Oakland earthquake and the 2007 Mw 5.45 Alum Rock earthquake show that the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area for Hayward fault earthquakes, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions for the suite of scenarios exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute much of this difference to the seismic velocity structure in the San Francisco Bay area and how the NGA models account for basin amplification; the NGA relations may underpredict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins. The simulations also suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period.

Fracture Behavior in Nylon 6 Fibers. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lloyd, B. A.

1972-01-01

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) techniques are used to determine the number of free radicals produced during deformation leading to fracture of nylon 6 fibers. A reaction rate molecular model is proposed to explain some of the deformation and bond rupture behavior leading to fracture. High-strength polymer fibers are assumed to consist of a sandwich structure of disordered and ordered regions along the fiber axis. In the disordered or critical flaw regions, tie chains connecting the ordered or crystalline block regions are assumed to have a statistical distribution in length. These chains are, therefore, subjected to different stresses. The effective length distribution was determined by EPR. The probability of bond rupture was assumed to be controlled by reaction-rate theory with a stress-aided activation energy and behavior of various loadings determined by numerical techniques. The model is successfully correlated with experimental stress, strain, and bond rupture results for creep, constant rate loadings, cyclic stress, stress relaxation and step strain tests at room temperature.

Fault Rupture Model of the 2016 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake and Its Implication for the Underground Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, Takahiko; Song, Seok Goo

2018-03-01

The 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) was the largest instrumentally recorded inland event in South Korea. It occurred in the southeast of the Korean Peninsula and was preceded by a large ML 5.1 foreshock. The aftershock seismicity data indicate that these earthquakes occurred on two closely collocated parallel faults that are oblique to the surface trace of the Yangsan fault. We investigate the rupture properties of these earthquakes using finite-fault slip inversion analyses. The obtained models indicate that the ruptures propagated NNE-ward and SSW-ward for the main shock and the large foreshock, respectively. This indicates that these earthquakes occurred on right-step faults and were initiated around a fault jog. The stress drops were up to 62 and 43 MPa for the main shock and the largest foreshock, respectively. These high stress drops imply high strength excess, which may be overcome by the stress concentration around the fault jog.

Does permanent extensional deformation in lower forearc slopes indicate shallow plate-boundary rupture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geersen, J.; Ranero, C. R.; Kopp, H.; Behrmann, J. H.; Lange, D.; Klaucke, I.; Barrientos, S.; Diaz-Naveas, J.; Barckhausen, U.; Reichert, C.

2018-05-01

Seismic rupture of the shallow plate-boundary can result in large tsunamis with tragic socio-economic consequences, as exemplified by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. To better understand the processes involved in shallow earthquake rupture in seismic gaps (where megathrust earthquakes are expected), and investigate the tsunami hazard, it is important to assess whether the region experienced shallow earthquake rupture in the past. However, there are currently no established methods to elucidate whether a margin segment has repeatedly experienced shallow earthquake rupture, with the exception of mechanical studies on subducted fault-rocks. Here we combine new swath bathymetric data, unpublished seismic reflection images, and inter-seismic seismicity to evaluate if the pattern of permanent deformation in the marine forearc of the Northern Chile seismic gap allows inferences on past earthquake behavior. While the tectonic configuration of the middle and upper slope remains similar over hundreds of kilometers along the North Chilean margin, we document permanent extensional deformation of the lower slope localized to the region 20.8°S-22°S. Critical taper analyses, the comparison of permanent deformation to inter-seismic seismicity and plate-coupling models, as well as recent observations from other subduction-zones, including the area that ruptured during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, suggest that the normal faults at the lower slope may have resulted from shallow, possibly near-trench breaking earthquake ruptures in the past. In the adjacent margin segments, the 1995 Antofagasta, 2007 Tocopilla, and 2014 Iquique earthquakes were limited to the middle and upper-slope and the terrestrial forearc, and so are upper-plate normal faults. Our findings suggest a seismo-tectonic segmentation of the North Chilean margin that seems to be stable over multiple earthquake cycles. If our interpretations are correct, they indicate a high tsunami hazard posed by the yet un-ruptured southern segment of the seismic gap.

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Earthquake Stress Drop on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise: Implications for Fault Strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2017-12-01

During the last five seismic cycles on Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise, the largest earthquakes (6.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.2) have repeatedly ruptured the same fault segment (rupture asperity), while intervening fault segments host swarms of microearthquakes. Previous studies on Gofar have shown that these segments of low (≤10%) seismic coupling contain diffuse zones of seismicity and P-wave velocity reduction compared with the rupture asperity; suggesting heterogeneous fault properties control earthquake behavior. We investigate the role systematic differences in material properties have on earthquake rupture along Gofar using waveforms from ocean bottom seismometers that recorded the end of the 2008 Mw 6.0 seismic cycle.We determine stress drop for 117 earthquakes (2.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 4.2) that occurred in and between rupture asperities from corner frequency derived using an empirical Green's function spectral ratio method and seismic moment obtained by fitting the omega-square source model to the low frequency amplitude of earthquake spectra. We find stress drops from 0.03 to 2.7 MPa with significant spatial variation, including 2 times higher average stress drop in the rupture asperity compared to fault segments with low seismic coupling. We interpret an inverse correlation between stress drop and P-wave velocity reduction as the effect of damage on earthquake rupture. Earthquakes with higher stress drops occur in more intact crust of the rupture asperity, while earthquakes with lower stress drops occur in regions of low seismic coupling and reflect lower strength, highly fractured fault zone material. We also observe a temporal control on stress drop consistent with log-time healing following the Mw 6.0 mainshock, suggesting a decrease in stress drop as a result of fault zone damage caused by the large earthquake.

Effects of Bounded Fault on Seismic Radiation and Rupture Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, H.; Yang, H.

2016-12-01

It has been suggested that narrow rectangle fault may emit stopping phases that can largely affect seismic radiation and thus rupture propagation, e.g., generation of short-duration pulse-like ruptures. Here we investigate the effects of narrow along-dip rectangle fault (analogously to 2015 Nepal earthquake with 200 km * 40 km) on seismic radiation and rupture propagation through numerical modeling in the framework of the linear slip-weakening friction law. First, we found the critical slip-weakening distance Dc may largely affect the seismic radiation and other source parameters, such as rupture speed, final slip and stress drop. Fixing all other uniform parameters, decreasing Dc could decrease the duration time of slip rate and increase the peak slip rate, thus increase the seismic radiation energy spectrum of slip acceleration. In addition, smaller Dc could lead to larger rupture speed (close to S wave velocity), but smaller stress drop and final slip. The results show that Dc may control the efficiency of far-field radiation. Furthermore, the duration time of slip rate at locations close to boundaries is 1.5 - 4 s less than that in the center of the fault. Such boundary effect is especially remarkable for smaller Dc due to the smaller average duration time of slip rate, which could increase the high-frequency radiation energy and impede low-frequency component near the boundaries from the analysis of energy spectrum of slip acceleration. These results show high frequency energy tends to be radiated near the fault boundaries as long as Dc is small enough. In addition, ruptures are fragile and easy to self-arrest if the width of the seismogenic zone is very narrow. In other words, the sizes of nucleation zone need to be larger to initiate runaway ruptures. Our results show the critical sizes of nucleation zones increase as the widths of seismogenic zones decrease.

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

2018-02-01

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m (M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

2018-05-01

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m ( M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha Earthquake and its Aftershocks: Implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, S.; Kumar, A.; Priestley, K. F.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the mainshock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The mainshock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards, along ˜117° azimuth, for a duration of ˜70 s, in multi-stage rupture. The mainshock has been modeled using four sub-events, propagating from west-to-east. The first sub-event (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km/s on a ˜6° N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second sub-event (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km/s to 2.5 km/s, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third sub-event (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7° N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth sub-event (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the mainshock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the mainshock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the mainshock rupture. Source mechanism of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the mainshock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

The 2015 April 25 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake and its aftershocks: implications for lateral heterogeneity on the Main Himalayan Thrust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajay; Singh, Shashwat K.; Mitra, S.; Priestley, K. F.; Dayal, Shankar

2017-02-01

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8) occurred by thrust faulting on a ˜150 km long and ˜70 km wide, locked downdip segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), causing the Himalaya to slip SSW over the Indian Plate, and was followed by major-to-moderate aftershocks. Back projection of teleseismic P-wave and inversion of teleseismic body waves provide constraints on the geometry and kinematics of the main-shock rupture and source mechanism of aftershocks. The main-shock initiated ˜80 km west of Katmandu, close to the locking line on the MHT and propagated eastwards along ˜117° azimuth for a duration of ˜70 s, with varying rupture velocity on a heterogeneous fault surface. The main-shock has been modelled using four subevents, propagating from west-to-east. The first subevent (0-20 s) ruptured at a velocity of ˜3.5 km s- 1 on a ˜6°N dipping flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion. The second subevent (20-35 s) ruptured a ˜18° W dipping lateral ramp on the MHT in oblique thrust motion. The rupture velocity dropped from 3.5 km s- 1 to 2.5 km s- 1, as a result of updip propagation of the rupture. The third subevent (35-50 s) ruptured a ˜7°N dipping, eastward flat segment of the MHT with thrust motion and resulted in the largest amplitude arrivals at teleseismic distances. The fourth subevent (50-70 s) occurred by left-lateral strike-slip motion on a steeply dipping transverse fault, at high angle to the MHT and arrested the eastward propagation of the main-shock rupture. Eastward stress build-up following the main-shock resulted in the largest aftershock (Mw 7.3), which occurred on the MHT, immediately east of the main-shock rupture. Source mechanisms of moderate aftershocks reveal stress adjustment at the edges of the main-shock fault, flexural faulting on top of the downgoing Indian Plate and extensional faulting in the hanging wall of the MHT.

Dynamic Rupture and Energy Partition in Models of Earthquake Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Z.; Needleman, A.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2006-12-01

We study properties of dynamic rupture and the partition of energy between radiation and dissipative mechanisms using 2D finite element calculations. The goal is to improve the understanding of these processes on faults at different evolutionary stages associated with different levels of geometrical complexity and possible presence of contrasting elastic properties across the fault. The initial calculations employ homogeneous media and a planar internal interface governed by a general rate- and state-dependent friction law that accounts for the gradual response of shear stress to abrupt changes of normal stress. Ruptures are initiated by gradually increasing the shear traction in a limited nucleation zone near the origin. By changing the rate dependency of the friction law and the size of the nucleation zone, we obtain four rupture modes: (i) supershear crack-like rupture; (ii) subshear crack-like rupture; (iii) subshear single pulse; and (iv) supershear train of pulses. Increasing the initial shear stress produces a transition from a subshear crack to a supershear crack, while increasing the rate dependency of the friction produces self-healing and the transition from a crack-like to a pulse mode of rupture. Properties of the nucleation process can strongly affect the rupture mode. In the cases examined, the total release of strain energy (over the same propagation distance) decreases following the order: supershear crack, subshear crack, train of pulses and single pulse. The ratio of the radiated kinetic energy to the energy dissipated in friction is about 5% for the supershear crack case and about 2% for the other three cases. Future work will involve similar calculations accounting for the generation of plastic strain in the bulk, the material contrast across the fault, and the addition of cohesive surfaces in the bulk to allow for the generation of new surfaces. The study may provide fundamental information on rupture processes in geologically-relevant circumstances and improve the understanding of physical limits on extreme ground motion. The results may be used to check assumptions made in observational works and may help to guide new observational research.

A comparative study of ground motion hybrid simulations and the modified NGA ground motion predictive equations for directivity and its application to the the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pischiutta, M.; Akinci, A.; Spagnuolo, E.; Taroni, M.; Herrero, A.; Aochi, H.

2016-12-01

We have simulated strong ground motions for two Mw>7.0 rupture scenarios on the North Anatolian Fault, in the Marmara Sea within 10-20 km from Istanbul. This city is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in Europe and the Mediterranean region. The increased risk in Istanbul is due to eight destructive earthquakes that ruptured the fault system and left a seismic gap at the western portion of the 1000km-long North Anatolian Fault Zone. To estimate the ground motion characteristics and its variability in the region we have simulated physics-based rupture scenarios, producing hybrid broadband time histories. We have merged two simulation techniques: a full 3D wave propagation method to generate low-frequency seismograms (Aochi and Ulrich, 2015) and the stochastic finite-fault model approach based on a dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005) to simulate high-frequency seismograms (Akinci et al., 2016, submitted to BSSA, 2016). They are merged to compute realistic broadband hybrid time histories. The comparison of ground motion intensity measures (PGA, PGV, SA) resulting from our simulations with those predicted by the recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in the region (Boore & Atkinson, 2008; Chiou & Young, 2008; Akkar & Bommer, 2010; Akkar & Cagnan, 2010) seems to indicate that rupture directivity and super-shear rupture effects affect the ground motion in the Marmara Sea region. In order to account for the rupture directivity we improve the comparison using the directivity predictor proposed by Spudich & Chiu (2008). This study highlights the importance of the rupture directivity for the hazard estimation in the Marmara Sea region, especially for the city of Istanbul.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aagaard, B T; Graves, R W; Rodgers, A

We simulate long-period (T > 1.0-2.0 s) and broadband (T > 0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenarios earthquakes (Mw 6.7-7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario earthquakes generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area with about 50% of the urban area experiencing MMI VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18more » Oakland and 2007 Mw 4.5 Alum Rock earthquakes show that the USGS Bay Area Velocity Model version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute at least some of this difference to the relatively narrow width of the Hayward fault ruptures. The simulations suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by including a dependence on the rupture speed and increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period. The simulations also indicate that the NGA relations may under-predict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins.« less

Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalguer, Luis A.; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu; Irikura, Kojiro; Wu, Changjiang

2017-09-01

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18-20 November, 2015 in Vienna (http://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/50896/BestPSHANI), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green's functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models.

Prediction of the bending behavior after pre-strain of an aluminum alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradeau, A.; Thuillier, S.; Yoon, J. W.

2016-10-01

The present work is focused on the modeling of sheet metal mechanical behavior up to rupture, including anisotropy and hardening. The mechanical behavior of an AA6016 alloy was characterized at room temperature in tension, simple shear and hydraulic bulging. The initial anisotropy was described with the Yld2004-18p yield criterion coupled to a mixed hardening law. Concerning rupture, an uncoupled phenomenological criterion of Mohr-Coulomb type will be used. For the material parameter identification, an inverse methodology was used with the objective of reducing the gap between experimental and numerical data. Finally, validation of the results was performed on bending tests with different amplitudes of tension pre-strain in order to reach or not rupture in the bent area.

Strong nonlinear rupture theory of thin free liquid films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi-Chuan, Hwang; Jun-Liang, Chen; Li-Fu, Shen; Cheng-I, Weng

1996-02-01

A simplified governing equation with high-order effects is formulated after a procedure of evaluating the order of magnitude. Furthermore, the nonlinear evolution equations are derived by the Kármán-Polhausen integral method with a specified velocity profile. Particularly, the effects of surface tension, van der Waals potential, inertia and high-order viscous dissipation are taken into consideration in these equation. The numerical results reveal that the rupture time of free film is much shorter than that of a film on a flat plate. It is shown that because of a more complete high-order viscous dissipation effect discussed in the present study, the rupture process of present model is slower than is predicted by the high-order long wave theory.

Stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deng, J.; Hudnut, K.; Gurnis, M.; Hauksson, E.

1999-01-01

Following the M(w) 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.Following the Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake, significant postseismic displacements were resolved with GPS. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic model, we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust. Such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate. Most aftershocks within the rupture zone, especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock, may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow. The long-term decay time of aftershocks (about 2 years) approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading, and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust. Our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow.

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,

2015-01-01

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our model results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami model uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture model as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. Modeled inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.

Clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic independent characteristic factors for rupture of posterior communicating artery aneurysms.

PubMed

Zhang, Ying; Jing, Linkai; Liu, Jian; Li, Chuanhui; Fan, Jixing; Wang, Shengzhang; Li, Haiyun; Yang, Xinjian

2016-08-01

To identify clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic independent characteristic factors that discriminate posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysm rupture status. 173 patients with single PCoA aneurysms (108 ruptured, 65 unruptured) between January 2012 and June 2014 were retrospectively collected. Patient-specific models based on their three-dimensional digital subtraction angiography images were constructed and analyzed by a computational fluid dynamic method. All variables were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Two clinical factors (younger age and atherosclerosis), three morphological factors (higher aspect ratio, bifurcation type, and irregular shape), and six hemodynamic factors (lower mean and minimum wall shear stress, higher oscillatory shear index, a greater portion of area under low wall shear stress, unstable and complex flow pattern) were significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture. Independent factors characterizing the rupture status were identified as age (OR 0.956, p=0.015), irregular shape (OR 6.709, p<0.001), and minimum wall shear stress (OR 0.001, p=0.038). We combined clinical, morphological, and hemodynamic characteristics analysis and found the three strongest independent factors for PCoA aneurysm rupture were younger age, irregular shape, and low minimum wall shear stress. This may be useful for guiding risk assessments and subsequent treatment decisions for PCoA aneurysms. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Inelastic off-fault response and three-dimensional dynamics of earthquake rupture on a strike-slip fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Ma, Shuo

2010-01-01

Large dynamic stress off the fault incurs an inelastic response and energy loss, which contributes to the fracture energy, limiting the rupture and slip velocity. Using an explicit finite element method, we model three-dimensional dynamic ruptures on a vertical strike-slip fault in a homogeneous half-space. The material is subjected to a pressure-dependent Drucker-Prager yield criterion. Initial stresses in the medium increase linearly with depth. Our simulations show that the inelastic response is confined narrowly to the fault at depth. There the inelastic strain is induced by large dynamic stresses associated with the rupture front that overcome the effect of the high confining pressure. The inelastic zone increases in size as it nears the surface. For material with low cohesion (~5 MPa) the inelastic zone broadens dramatically near the surface, forming a "flowerlike" structure. The near-surface inelastic strain occurs in both the extensional and the compressional regimes of the fault, induced by seismic waves ahead of the rupture front under a low confining pressure. When cohesion is large (~10 MPa), the inelastic strain is significantly reduced near the surface and confined mostly to depth. Cohesion, however, affects the inelastic zone at depth less significantly. The induced shear microcracks show diverse orientations near the surface, owing to the low confining pressure, but exhibit mostly horizontal slip at depth. The inferred rupture-induced anisotropy at depth has the fast wave direction along the direction of the maximum compressive stress.

Suppression of slip and rupture velocity increased by thermal pressurization: Effect of dilatancy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

2013-11-01

investigated the effect of dilatancy on dynamic rupture propagation on a fault where thermal pressurization (TP) is in effect, taking into account permeability varying with porosity; the study is based on three-dimensional (3-D) numerical simulations of spontaneous ruptures obeying a slip-weakening friction law and Coulomb failure criterion. The effects of dilatancy on dynamic ruptures interacting with TP have been often investigated in one- or two-dimensional numerical simulations. The sole 3-D numerical simulation gave attention only to the behavior at a single point on a fault. Moreover, with the sole exception based on a single-degree-freedom spring-slider model, the previous simulations including dilatancy and TP have not considered changes in hydraulic diffusivity. However, the hydraulic diffusivity, which strongly affects TP, can vary as a power of porosity. In this study, we apply a power law relationship between permeability and porosity. We consider both reversible and irreversible changes in porosity, assuming that the irreversible change is proportional to the slip rate and dilatancy coefficient ɛ. Our numerical simulations suggest that the effects of dilatancy can suppress slip and rupture velocity increased by TP. The results reveal that the amount of slip on the fault decreases with increasing ɛ or exponent of the power law, and the rupture velocity is predominantly suppressed by ɛ. This was observed regardless of whether the applied stresses were high or low. The deficit of the final slip in relation to ɛ can be smaller as the fault size is larger.

A penalty-based nodal discontinuous Galerkin method for spontaneous rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, R.; De Hoop, M. V.; Kumar, K.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulation of the dynamic rupture processes with slip is critical to understand the earthquake source process and the generation of ground motions. However, it can be challenging due to the nonlinear friction laws interacting with seismicity, coupled with the discontinuous boundary conditions across the rupture plane. In practice, the inhomogeneities in topography, fault geometry, elastic parameters and permiability add extra complexity. We develop a nodal discontinuous Galerkin method to simulate seismic wave phenomenon with slipping boundary conditions, including the fluid-solid boundaries and ruptures. By introducing a novel penalty flux, we avoid solving Riemann problems on interfaces, which makes our method capable for general anisotropic and poro-elastic materials. Based on unstructured tetrahedral meshes in 3D, the code can capture various geometries in geological model, and use polynomial expansion to achieve high-order accuracy. We consider the rate and state friction law, in the spontaneous rupture dynamics, as part of a nonlinear transmitting boundary condition, which is weakly enforced across the fault surface as numerical flux. An iterative coupling scheme is developed based on implicit time stepping, containing a constrained optimization process that accounts for the nonlinear part. To validate the method, we proof the convergence of the coupled system with error estimates. We test our algorithm on a well-established numerical example (TPV102) of the SCEC/USGS Spontaneous Rupture Code Verification Project, and benchmark with the simulation of PyLith and SPECFEM3D with agreeable results.

Scale-Dependent Friction and Damage Interface law: implications for effective earthquake rupture dynamics and radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festa, Gaetano; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre; Raous, Michel; Henninger, Carole

2010-05-01

Propagation and radiation of an earthquake rupture is commonly considered as a friction dominated process on fault surfaces. Friction laws, such as the slip weakening and the rate-and-state laws are widely used in the modeling of the earthquake rupture process. These laws prescribe the traction evolution versus slip, slip rate and potentially other internal variables. They introduce a finite cohesive length scale over which the fracture energy is released. However faults are finite-width interfaces with complex internal structures, characterized by highly damaged zones embedding a very thin principal slip interface where most of the dynamic slip localizes. Even though the rupture process is generally investigated at wavelengths larger than the fault zone thickness, which should justify a formulation based upon surface energy, a consistent homogeneization, a very challenging problem, is still missing. Such homogeneization is however be required to derive the consistent form of an effective interface law, as well as the appropriate physical variables and length scales, to correctly describe the coarse-grained dissipation resulting from surface and volumetric contributions at the scale of the fault zone. In this study, we investigate a scale-dependent law, introduced by Raous et al. (1999) in the context of adhesive material interfaces, that takes into account the transition between a damage dominated and a friction dominated state. Such a phase-field formalism describes this transition through an order parameter. We first compare this law to standard slip weakening friction law in terms of the rupture nucleation. The problem is analyzed through the representation of the solution of the quasi-static elastic problem onto the Chebyshev polynomial basis, generalizing the Uenishi-Rice solution. The nucleation solutions, at the onset of instability, are then introduced as initial conditions for the study of the dynamic rupture propagation, in the case of in-plane rupture, using high-order Spectral Element Methods and non-smooth contact mechanics. In particular, we investigate the implications of this new interface law in terms of the rupture propagation and arrest. Special attention is focused on radiation and supershear transition. Comparison with the classical slip weakening friction law is provided. Finally, first results toward a dynamic consistent homogeneization of damaged fault zones will be discussed. Raous, M., Cangémi, L. and Cocou, M. (1999). A consistent model coupling adhesion, friction and unilateral contact', Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, Vol. 177, pp.383-399.

Kinematic Source Rupture Process of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake, a MW6.9 thrust earthquake in northeast Japan, using Strong Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, K.; Iwata, T.

2008-12-01

The 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake (MJMA7.2) on June 14, 2008, is a thrust type inland crustal earthquake, which occurred in northeastern Honshu, Japan. In order to see strong motion generation process of this event, the source rupture process is estimated by the kinematic waveform inversion using strong motion data. Strong motion data of the K-NET and KiK-net stations and Aratozawa Dam are used. These stations are located 3-94 km from the epicenter. Original acceleration time histories are integrated into velocity and band- pass filtered between 0.05 and 1 Hz. For obtaining the detailed source rupture process, appropriate velocity structure model for Green's functions should be used. We estimated one dimensional velocity structure model for each strong motion station by waveform modeling of aftershock records. The elastic wave velocity, density, and Q-values for four sedimentary layers are assumed following previous studies. The thickness of each sedimentary layer depends on the station, which is estimated to fit the observed aftershock's waveforms by the optimization using the genetic algorithm. A uniform layered structure model is assumed for crust and upper mantle below the seismic bedrock. We succeeded to get a reasonable velocity structure model for each station to give a good fit of the main S-wave part in the observation of aftershocks. The source rupture process of the mainshock is estimated by the linear kinematic waveform inversion using multiple time windows (Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). A fault plane model is assumed following the moment tensor solution by F-net, NIED. The strike and dip angle is 209° and 51°, respectively. The rupture starting point is fixed at the hypocenter located by the JMA. The obtained source model shows a large slip area in the shallow portion of the fault plane approximately 6 km southwest of the hypocenter. The rupture of the asperity finishes within about 9 s. This large slip area corresponds to the area with surface break reported by the field survey group (e.g., AIST/GSJ, 2008), which supports the existence of the large slip close to the ground surface. But, most of surface offset found by the field survey are less than 0.5 m whereas the slip amount of the shallow asperity of the source inversion result is 3-4 m. In north of the hypocenter, the estimated slip amount is small. Slip direction is almost pure dip-slip for the entire fault (Northwest side goes up against southeast side). Total seismic moment is 2.6× 1019 Nm (MW 6.9). Acknowledgments: Strong motion data of K-NET and KiK-net operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention are used. Strong motion data of Aratozawa Dam obtained by Miyagi prefecture government is also used in the study.

Seafloor Deformation and Localized Source Mechanisms of the 2011 M9 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masterlark, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Tappin, D. R.; Kirby, J. T.

2012-12-01

The 2011 M9 Tohoku Earthquake (TE) ruptured the interface separating the Pacific and Okhotsk Plates. This rupture was about hundred kilometers in the along-strike direction and 200 kilometers in the down-dip direction. The TE was primarily thrust having substantial slip along the up-dip portion of the rupture, near the Japan Trench. The regional-scale seafloor deformation from the TE triggered a tsunami with run-ups of a few tens of meters that caused extensive damage along the east coast of Tohoku, Japan. We construct finite element models (FEMs) to simulate the deformation caused by a distribution of coseismic slip along the curved rupture surface of the TE. The FEMs include a distribution of material properties that accounts for the subduction zone structure -a weak forearc, volcanic arc, and backarc basin of the overriding Okhotsk Plate overriding the relatively strong subducting slab that is capped by basaltic oceanic crust. The coseismic rupture is simulated as a distribution of elastic dislocations along the interface separating the forearc of the overriding plate and the oceanic crust of the subducting slab. The slip distribution is calibrated to both onshore and offshore geodetic data, using linear least-squares inverse methods with FEM-generated Greens Functions and second order regularization. The regularization is imposed with a conductance matrix, constructed using Galerkin's Method to account for the curvilinear relationships among the dislocating node pairs. The estimated slip distribution is generally characterized as a few tens of meters of slip over the entire rupture, with greater slip magnitudes (>50 meters) concentrated up-dip and near the Japan Trench. The offshore geodetic data provide critical constraints for the location of the polarity reversal of predicted seafloor vertical deformation. Wave models excited by the predicted regional-scale seafloor deformation generally well predict observed tsunami run-ups and the vertical displacement magnitudes of low frequency waves of coastal GPS buoys. However, coastal areas near Sanriku, Japan experienced anomalously high run-ups of 40 meters and local offshore GPS buoys indicate high frequency waveforms that are incompatible with the coseismic seafloor deformation of the TE. These observations require a localized deformation source near the Japan Trench and just to the north of the TE rupture zone, which models solely based on tsunami waveform inversion predict. Others suggest that a submarine mass failure at this location, presumably triggered by the TE, can excite such waveforms. In this study, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that localized splay faulting, also presumably triggered by the TE, can excite the anomalous waveforms. To do so, we will estimate plausible suites of splay fault and slip parameters that can account for the anomalously high magnitude and high frequency tsunami waves sourced from a localized area near the Japan Trench and north of the TE rupture.

Continuous borehole strain in the San Andreas fault zone before, during, and after the 28 June 1992, MW 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Agnew, D.C.

1994-01-01

High-precision strain was observed with a borehole dilational strainmeter in the Devil's Punchbowl during the 11:58 UT 28 June 1992 MW 7.3 Landers earthquake and the large Big Bear aftershock (MW 6.3). The strainmeter is installed at a depth of 176 m in the fault zone approximately midway between the surface traces of the San Andreas and Punchbowl faults and is about 100 km from the 85-km-long Landers rupture. We have questioned whether unusual amplified strains indicating precursive slip or high fault compliance occurred on the faults ruptured by the Landers earthquake, or in the San Andreas fault zone before and during the earthquake, whether static offsets for both the Landers and Big Bear earthquakes agree with expectation from geodetic and seismologic models of the ruptures and with observations from a nearby two-color geodimeter network, and whether postseismic behavior indicated continued slip on the Landers rupture or local triggered slip on the San Andreas. We show that the strain observed during the earthquake at this instrument shows no apparent amplification effects. There are no indications of precursive strain in these strain data due to either local slip on the San Andreas or precursive slip on the eventual Landers rupture. The observations are generally consistent with models of the earthquake in which fault geometry and slip have the same form as that determined by either inversion of the seismic data or inversion of geodetically determined ground displacements produced by the earthquake. Finally, there are some indications of minor postseismic behavior, particularly during the month following the earthquake.

High-resolution CFD detects high-frequency velocity fluctuations in bifurcation, but not sidewall, aneurysms.

PubMed

Valen-Sendstad, Kristian; Mardal, Kent-André; Steinman, David A

2013-01-18

High-frequency flow fluctuations in intracranial aneurysms have previously been reported in vitro and in vivo. On the other hand, the vast majority of image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of cerebral aneurysms report periodic, laminar flow. We have previously demonstrated that transitional flow, consistent with in vivo reports, can occur in a middle cerebral artery (MCA) bifurcation aneurysm when ultra-high-resolution direct numerical simulation methods are applied. The object of the present study was to investigate if such high-frequency flow fluctuations might be more widespread in adequately-resolved CFD models. A sample of N=12 anatomically realistic MCA aneurysms (five unruptured, seven ruptured), was digitally segmented from CT angiograms. Four were classified as sidewall aneurysms, the other eight as bifurcation aneurysms. Transient CFD simulations were carried out assuming a steady inflow velocity of 0.5m/s, corresponding to typical peak systolic conditions at the MCA. To allow for detection of clinically-reported high-frequency flow fluctuations and resulting flow structures, temporal and spatial resolutions of the CFD simulations were in the order of 0.1 ms and 0.1 mm, respectively. A transient flow response to the stationary inflow conditions was found in five of the 12 aneurysms, with energetic fluctuations up to 100 Hz, and in one case up to 900 Hz. Incidentally, all five were ruptured bifurcation aneurysms, whereas all four sidewall aneurysms, including one ruptured case, quickly reached a stable, steady state solution. Energetic, rapid fluctuations may be overlooked in CFD models of bifurcation aneurysms unless adequate temporal and spatial resolutions are used. Such fluctuations may be relevant to the mechanobiology of aneurysm rupture, and to a recently reported dichotomy between predictors of rupture likelihood for bifurcation vs. sidewall aneurysms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 2017 Mw = 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake: a slab bending or slab pull rupture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duputel, Z.; Gombert, B.; Simons, M.; Fielding, E. J.; Rivera, L. A.; Bekaert, D. P.; Jiang, J.; Liang, C.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

On September 8th 2017, a regionally destructive Mw 8.2 intra-slab earthquake struck Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While large intermediate depth intra-slab earthquakes are a major hazard, we have only a limited knowledge of the strain budgets within subducting slabs. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain intraplate earthquakes in subduction zones. Bending stresses might cause the occurrence of seismic events located at depths where the slab dip changes abruptly. However, an alternative explanation is needed if the ruptures are found to propagate through the entire lithosphere. Depending on the coupling of the subduction interface, intraplate earthquakes occurring updip or downdip of the locked zone could also be caused by the negative buoyancy of the sinking slab (i.e., slab pull). The increasing availability of near-fault data provides a unique opportunity to better constrain the seismogenic behavior of large intra-slab earthquakes. Teleseismic analyses of the 2017 Tehuantepec earthquake lead to contrasting statements about the depth extent of the rupture: while most of long period centroid moment tensor inversions yield fairly large centroid depths (>40 km), some finite-fault models suggest much shallower slip concentrated at depths less than 30 km. In this study, we analyze GPS, InSAR, tsunami and seismological data to constrain the earthquake location, fault geometry and slip distribution. We use a Bayesian approach devoid of significant spatial smoothing to characterize the range of allowable rupture depths. In addition, to cope with potential artifacts in centroid depth estimates due to unmodeled lateral heterogeneities, we also analyze long-period seismological data using a full 3D Earth model. Preliminary results suggest a fairly deep rupture consistent with a slab-pull process breaking a significant proportion of the lithosphere and potentially reflecting at least local detachment of the slab.

Effect of electroacupuncture stimulation on long-term recovery following Achilles tendon rupture in a rat model.

PubMed

Imaeda, Miwa; Hojo, Tatsuya; Kitakoji, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kazuto; Itoi, Megumi; Inoue, Motohiro

2018-04-19

In this study we examined the effect of electroacupuncture (EA) stimulation on the mechanical strength of the rat Achilles tendon after long-term recovery. Using 20 rats, an Achilles tendon rupture model was created in an invasive manner. The rats were assigned to one of three groups, that received EA treatment (EA group), minimal acupuncture (MA group) or remained untreated (Control group). In the EA group, EA stimulation (5 ms, 50 Hz, 20 µA, 20 min) was applied to the rupture region over a period of 90 days (five times/week). In the MA group, needles were inserted into the same positions as in the EA group but no electrical current was applied. After 90 days the tendon was measured to calculate the cross-sectional area of the rupture region. Then, the mechanical strength of the tendon was measured by tensile testing. No significant differences were observed between the three groups in cross-sectional area of the injured tendon. For maximum breaking strength, the EA group showed a significantly higher threshold compared with the Control group (P<0.05) but not the MA group (P=0.24). No significant difference was seen between the MA group and the Control group (P=0.96). Given the EA group showed a significant increase in maximum breaking strength, it is likely that EA stimulation increases the mechanical strength of a repaired tendon after long-term recovery, and EA stimulation could be useful for preventing re-rupture. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; Barry, Robert G.; Smith, Forrest E.; Mello, Joseph D.; McFarland, Forrest S.

2013-01-01

Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.

The Seismic Sequence of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador Sarthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, S.; Fuenzalida, A.; Bie, L.; Garth, T.; Gonzalez, P. J.; Holt, J.; Rietbrock, A.; Edwards, B.; Regnier, M. M.; Pernoud, M.; Mercerat, E. D.; Perrault, M.; Font, Y.; Alvarado, A. P.; Charvis, P.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.

2016-12-01

On the 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in Northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km and was preceded by a Mw 5.0 foreshock, located only 15 km south of the epicentre, and registered 10 minutes before the main event.A few weeks after the main event a large array of instruments was deployed by a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), IRIS (USA), Géoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 70 stations, includes broadband, short period and strong motion instruments and is currently recording the aftershock activity of the earthquake. It is hoped that this data set will give further insights into the structure of the subduction zone mega thrust beneath Ecuador.Using data recorded both on the permanent and the recently deployed network we located and calculated the moment tensor solutions for the foreshock event, and the large aftershocks (M > 5). We analyse the spatial distribution of the seismicity and its relation with the co-seismic slip, estimated by inverting radar satellite interferometry data, and with previous models of inter-seismic coupling (e.g. Chlieh et al., 2014). It is possible to identify two lineations in the aftershock activity located to the north and south of the rupture. Moreover, the geodetic slip model shows that the boundaries of the maximum coseismic slip coincides with the observed lineaments in the aftershocks and with the rupture area of a previous Mw 7.8 event in 1942. This suggests that the features to the north and south may impose a barrier to rupture propagation, creating different segments in the subduction zone beneath Ecuador. In addition, we model the Coulomb stress change caused by the foreshock and mainshock in order to investigate whether this could explain the aftershock distribution and potential earthquake interactions. Previous activity has presented a northward-propagating series of ruptures greater than Mw 7 spaced approximately 20 years apart. An open question is therefore whether the present event is the start of a further series of large magnitude events in northern Ecuador, and/or whether slow slip events/creep south of the rupture have partly accommodated the strain due to subduction.

Elevation of a collagenase generated type II collagen neoepitope and proteoglycan epitopes in synovial fluid following induction of joint instability in the dog

PubMed Central

Chu, Q.; Lopez, M.; Hayashi, K.; lonescu, M.; Billinghurst, R. C.; Johnson, K. A.; Poole, A. R.; Markel, M. D.

2007-01-01

Summary Clinical relevance Measurement of markers of cartilage pathology in synovial fluid may provide clinical rheumatologists and osteoarthritis (OA) researchers important information for early diagnosis of OA as well as a method for monitoring disease progression and response to treatment. This study demonstrates the value of this approach in an established model of OA (cranial cruciate ligament rupture) at a point distant enough from the original surgical manipulation so as to have little to no effect on the marker concentrations. Objective The objective of this study was to determine whether measurement of markers of cartilage collagen cleavage and proteoglycan turnover in synovial fluid from a canine model could be used to detect cartilage changes following the onset of joint instability during the development of OA. Design A model of joint instability that develops OA was created in 18 mature dogs using monopolar radiofrequency energy (MRFE). MRFE was arthroscopically applied to one cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) while the contralateral CCL was sham treated. The treated CCLs ruptured approximately 8 weeks (55 ± 1.6 days) after MRFE treatment. Synovial fluid was collected at time zero prior to MRFE treatment, 4 weeks after MRFE treatment, and at 4, 8, and 16 weeks after CCL rupture. Synovial fluid concentrations of the neoepitope COL2-3/4C long (type II collagen cleavage by collagenase) and epitopes 3B3(–) (proteoglycan aggrecan sulfation) and 846 (associated with aggrecan synthesis) were analyzed. Results Compared to sham treated joints, the synovial fluid concentrations of COL2-3/4C long and 3B3(–) were significantly increased 2.2 fold and 2.9 fold, respectively, in joints with MRFE treated CCLs following CCL rupture. Concentrations of the 846 epitope in synovial fluid showed a trend toward an increase, which was not significant, after CCL rupture. Conclusions Concentrations of the collagenase-cleaved type II collagen neoepitope and 3B3(–) epitope in synovial fluid were significantly increased by 4 weeks and remained elevated for at least 16 weeks after CCL rupture. This suggests that in dogs the COL2-3/4C long neoepitope and 3B3(–) epitope are sensitive markers for changes in joint cartilage turnover in joints that are developing OA. PMID:12479389

Elevation of a collagenase generated type II collagen neoepitope and proteoglycan epitopes in synovial fluid following induction of joint instability in the dog.

PubMed

Chu, Q; Lopez, M; Hayashi, K; Ionescu, M; Billinghurst, R C; Johnson, K A; Poole, A R; Markel, M D

2002-08-01

Measurement of markers of cartilage pathology in synovial fluid may provide clinical rheumatologists and osteoarthritis (OA) researchers important information for early diagnosis of OA as well as a method for monitoring disease progression and response to treatment. This study demonstrates the value of this approach in an established model of OA (cranial cruciate ligament rupture) at a point distant enough from the original surgical manipulation so as to have little to no effect on the marker concentrations. The objective of this study was to determine whether measurement of markers of cartilage collagen cleavage and proteoglycan turnover in synovial fluid from a canine model could be used to detect cartilage changes following the onset of joint instability during the development of OA. A model of joint instability that develops OA was created in 18 mature dogs using monopolar radiofrequency energy (MRFE). MRFE was arthroscopically applied to one cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) while the contralateral CCL was sham treated. The treated CCLs ruptured approximately 8 weeks (55 +/- 1.6 days) after MRFE treatment. Synovial fluid was collected at time zero prior to MRFE treatment, 4 weeks after MRFE treatment, and at 4, 8, and 16 weeks after CCL rupture. Synovial fluid concentrations of the neoepitope COL2-3/4C long (type II collagen cleavage by collagenase) and epitopes 3B3(-) (proteoglycan aggrecan sulfation) and 846 (associated with aggrecan synthesis) were analyzed. Compared to sham treated joints, the synovial fluid concentrations of COL2-3/4C long and 3B3(-) were significantly increased 2.2 fold and 2.9 fold, respectively, in joints with MRFE treated CCLs following CCL rupture. Concentrations of the 846 epitope in synovial fluid showed a trend toward an increase, which was not significant, after CCL rupture. Concentrations of the collagenase-cleaved type II collagen neoepitope and 3B3(-) epitope in synovial fluid were significantly increased by 4 weeks and remained elevated for at least 16 weeks after CCL rupture. This suggests that in dogs the COL2-3/4C long neoepitope and 3B3(-) epitope are sensitive markers for changes in joint cartilage turnover in joints that are developing OA.

Structural control on the Tohoku earthquake rupture process investigated by 3D FEM, tsunami and geodetic data

PubMed Central

Romano, F.; Trasatti, E.; Lorito, S.; Piromallo, C.; Piatanesi, A.; Ito, Y.; Zhao, D.; Hirata, K.; Lanucara, P.; Cocco, M.

2014-01-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw = 9.1) highlighted previously unobserved features for megathrust events, such as the large slip in a relatively limited area and the shallow rupture propagation. We use a Finite Element Model (FEM), taking into account the 3D geometrical and structural complexities up to the trench zone, and perform a joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake slip distribution. We obtain a close spatial correlation between the main deep slip patch and the local seismic velocity anomalies, and large shallow slip extending also to the North coherently with a seismically observed low-frequency radiation. These observations suggest that the friction controlled the rupture, initially confining the deeper rupture and then driving its propagation up to the trench, where it spreads laterally. These findings are relevant to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment because they may help to detect regions likely prone to rupture along the megathrust, and to constrain the probability of high slip near the trench. Our estimate of ~40 m slip value around the JFAST (Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project) drilling zone contributes to constrain the dynamic shear stress and friction coefficient of the fault obtained by temperature measurements to ~0.68 MPa and ~0.10, respectively. PMID:25005351

Causal mechanisms of seismo-EM phenomena during the 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm.

PubMed

Enomoto, Yuji; Yamabe, Tsuneaki; Okumura, Nobuo

2017-03-21

The 1965-1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan exhibited two unique characteristics. The first was a hydro-mechanical crust rupture resulting from degassing, volume expansion of CO 2 /water, and a crack opening within the critically stressed crust under a strike-slip stress. The other was, despite the lower total seismic energy, the occurrence of complexed seismo-electromagnetic (seismo-EM) phenomena of the geomagnetic intensity increase, unusual earthquake lights (EQLs) and atmospheric electric field (AEF) variations. Although the basic rupture process of this swarm of earthquakes is reasonably understood in terms of hydro-mechanical crust rupture, the associated seismo-EM processes remain largely unexplained. Here, we describe a series of seismo-EM mechanisms involved in the hydro-mechanical rupture process, as observed by coupling the electric interaction of rock rupture with CO 2 gas and the dielectric-barrier discharge of the modelled fields in laboratory experiments. We found that CO 2 gases passing through the newly created fracture surface of the rock were electrified to generate pressure-impressed current/electric dipoles, which could induce a magnetic field following Biot-Savart's law, decrease the atmospheric electric field and generate dielectric-barrier discharge lightning affected by the coupling effect between the seismic and meteorological activities.

Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

2009-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

Causal mechanisms of seismo-EM phenomena during the 1965–1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm

PubMed Central

Enomoto, Yuji; Yamabe, Tsuneaki; Okumura, Nobuo

2017-01-01

The 1965–1967 Matsushiro earthquake swarm in central Japan exhibited two unique characteristics. The first was a hydro-mechanical crust rupture resulting from degassing, volume expansion of CO2/water, and a crack opening within the critically stressed crust under a strike-slip stress. The other was, despite the lower total seismic energy, the occurrence of complexed seismo-electromagnetic (seismo-EM) phenomena of the geomagnetic intensity increase, unusual earthquake lights (EQLs) and atmospheric electric field (AEF) variations. Although the basic rupture process of this swarm of earthquakes is reasonably understood in terms of hydro-mechanical crust rupture, the associated seismo-EM processes remain largely unexplained. Here, we describe a series of seismo-EM mechanisms involved in the hydro-mechanical rupture process, as observed by coupling the electric interaction of rock rupture with CO2 gas and the dielectric-barrier discharge of the modelled fields in laboratory experiments. We found that CO2 gases passing through the newly created fracture surface of the rock were electrified to generate pressure-impressed current/electric dipoles, which could induce a magnetic field following Biot-Savart’s law, decrease the atmospheric electric field and generate dielectric-barrier discharge lightning affected by the coupling effect between the seismic and meteorological activities. PMID:28322263

Laboratory experiment of seismic cycles using compliant viscoelastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, T.

2016-12-01

It is well known that surface asperities at fault interfaces play an essential role in stick-slip friction. There have been many laboratory experiments conducted using rocks and some analogue materials to understand the effects of asperities and the underlying mechanisms. Among such materials, soft polymer gels have great advantages of slowing down propagating rupture front speed as well as shear wave speed: it facilitates observation of the dynamic rupture behavior. However, most experiments were done with bimaterial interfaces (combination of soft and hard materials) and there are few experiments with an identical (gel on gel) setup. Furthermore, there have been also few studies mentioning the link between local asperity contact and macroscopic dynamic rupture behavior. In this talk, we report our experimental studies on stick-slip friction between gels having controlled artificial asperities. We show that, depending on number density and configuration randomness of the asperities, the rupture behavior greatly changes: when the asperities are located periodically with optimum number densities, fast rupture propagation occurs, while slow and heterogeneous slip behavior is observed for samples having randomly located asperities. We discuss the importance of low frequency (large wavelength) excitation of the normal displacement contributing to weakening the fault interface. We also discuss the observed regular to slow slip transition with a simple model.