A Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) Study of Aliphatic Alcohols by the Method of Dividing the Molecular Structure into Substructure

PubMed Central

Liu, Fengping; Cao, Chenzhong; Cheng, Bin

2011-01-01

A quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) analysis of aliphatic alcohols is presented. Four physicochemical properties were studied: boiling point (BP), n-octanol–water partition coefficient (lg POW), water solubility (lg W) and the chromatographic retention indices (RI) on different polar stationary phases. In order to investigate the quantitative structure–property relationship of aliphatic alcohols, the molecular structure ROH is divided into two parts, R and OH to generate structural parameter. It was proposed that the property is affected by three main factors for aliphatic alcohols, alkyl group R, substituted group OH, and interaction between R and OH. On the basis of the polarizability effect index (PEI), previously developed by Cao, the novel molecular polarizability effect index (MPEI) combined with odd-even index (OEI), the sum eigenvalues of bond-connecting matrix (SX1CH) previously developed in our team, were used to predict the property of aliphatic alcohols. The sets of molecular descriptors were derived directly from the structure of the compounds based on graph theory. QSPR models were generated using only calculated descriptors and multiple linear regression techniques. These QSPR models showed high values of multiple correlation coefficient (R > 0.99) and Fisher-ratio statistics. The leave-one-out cross-validation demonstrated the final models to be statistically significant and reliable. PMID:21731451

Development of a novel in silico model of zeta potential for metal oxide nanoparticles: a nano-QSPR approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrzykowska, Ewelina; Mikolajczyk, Alicja; Sikorska, Celina; Puzyn, Tomasz

2016-11-01

Once released into the aquatic environment, nanoparticles (NPs) are expected to interact (e.g. dissolve, agglomerate/aggregate, settle), with important consequences for NP fate and toxicity. A clear understanding of how internal and environmental factors influence the NP toxicity and fate in the environment is still in its infancy. In this study, a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) approach was employed to systematically explore factors that affect surface charge (zeta potential) under environmentally realistic conditions. The nano-QSPR model developed with multiple linear regression (MLR) was characterized by high robustness ({{{Q}}{{2}}}{{CV}}=0.90) and external predictivity ({{{Q}}{{2}}}{{EXT}}=0.93). The results clearly showed that zeta potential values varied markedly as functions of the ionic radius of the metal atom in the metal oxides, confirming that agglomeration and the extent of release of free MexOy largely depend on their intrinsic properties. A developed nano-QSPR model was successfully applied to predict zeta potential in an ionized solution of NPs for which experimentally determined values of response have been unavailable. Hence, the application of our model is possible when the values of zeta potential in the ionized solution for metal oxide nanoparticles are undetermined, without the necessity of performing more time consuming and expensive experiments. We believe that our studies will be helpful in predicting the conditions under which MexOy is likely to become problematic for the environment and human health.

QSPR models for predicting generator-column-derived octanol/water and octanol/air partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Ting; Yuan, Xuejie; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-06-01

Octanol/water (K(OW)) and octanol/air (K(OA)) partition coefficients are two important physicochemical properties of organic substances. In current practice, K(OW) and K(OA) values of some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are measured using generator column method. Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models can serve as a valuable alternative method of replacing or reducing experimental steps in the determination of K(OW) and K(OA). In this paper, two different methods, i.e., multiple linear regression based on dragon descriptors and hologram quantitative structure-activity relationship, were used to predict generator-column-derived log K(OW) and log K(OA) values of PCBs. The predictive ability of the developed models was validated using a test set, and the performances of all generated models were compared with those of three previously reported models. All results indicated that the proposed models were robust and satisfactory and can thus be used as alternative models for the rapid assessment of the K(OW) and K(OA) of PCBs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of the QSPR approach to the boiling points of azeotropes.

PubMed

Katritzky, Alan R; Stoyanova-Slavova, Iva B; Tämm, Kaido; Tamm, Tarmo; Karelson, Mati

2011-04-21

CODESSA Pro derivative descriptors were calculated for a data set of 426 azeotropic mixtures by the centroid approximation and the weighted-contribution-factor approximation. The two approximations produced almost identical four-descriptor QSPR models relating the structural characteristic of the individual components of azeotropes to the azeotropic boiling points. These models were supported by internal and external validations. The descriptors contributing to the QSPR models are directly related to the three components of the enthalpy (heat) of vaporization.

Field determination and QSPR prediction of equilibrium-status soil/vegetation partition coefficient of PCDD/Fs.

PubMed

Li, Li; Wang, Qiang; Qiu, Xinghua; Dong, Yian; Jia, Shenglan; Hu, Jianxin

2014-07-15

Characterizing pseudo equilibrium-status soil/vegetation partition coefficient KSV, the quotient of respective concentrations in soil and vegetation of a certain substance at remote background areas, is essential in ecological risk assessment, however few previous attempts have been made for field determination and developing validated and reproducible structure-based estimates. In this study, KSV was calculated based on measurements of seventeen 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDD/F congeners in soil and moss (Dicranum angustum), and rouzi grass (Thylacospermum caespitosum) of two background sites, Ny-Ålesund of the Arctic and Zhangmu-Nyalam region of the Tibet Plateau, respectively. By both fugacity modeling and stepwise regression of field data, the air-water partition coefficient (KAW) and aqueous solubility (SW) were identified as the influential physicochemical properties. Furthermore, validated quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model was developed to extrapolate the KSV prediction to all 210 PCDD/F congeners. Molecular polarizability, molecular size and molecular energy demonstrated leading effects on KSV. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular basis of quantitative structure-properties relationships (QSPR): a quantum similarity approach.

PubMed

Ponec, R; Amat, L; Carbó-Dorca, R

1999-05-01

Since the dawn of quantitative structure-properties relationships (QSPR), empirical parameters related to structural, electronic and hydrophobic molecular properties have been used as molecular descriptors to determine such relationships. Among all these parameters, Hammett sigma constants and the logarithm of the octanol-water partition coefficient, log P, have been massively employed in QSPR studies. In the present paper, a new molecular descriptor, based on quantum similarity measures (QSM), is proposed as a general substitute of these empirical parameters. This work continues previous analyses related to the use of QSM to QSPR, introducing molecular quantum self-similarity measures (MQS-SM) as a single working parameter in some cases. The use of MQS-SM as a molecular descriptor is first confirmed from the correlation with the aforementioned empirical parameters. The Hammett equation has been examined using MQS-SM for a series of substituted carboxylic acids. Then, for a series of aliphatic alcohols and acetic acid esters, log P values have been correlated with the self-similarity measure between density functions in water and octanol of a given molecule. And finally, some examples and applications of MQS-SM to determine QSAR are presented. In all studied cases MQS-SM appeared to be excellent molecular descriptors usable in general QSPR applications of chemical interest.

Molecular basis of quantitative structure-properties relationships (QSPR): A quantum similarity approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponec, Robert; Amat, Lluís; Carbó-dorca, Ramon

1999-05-01

Since the dawn of quantitative structure-properties relationships (QSPR), empirical parameters related to structural, electronic and hydrophobic molecular properties have been used as molecular descriptors to determine such relationships. Among all these parameters, Hammett σ constants and the logarithm of the octanol- water partition coefficient, log P, have been massively employed in QSPR studies. In the present paper, a new molecular descriptor, based on quantum similarity measures (QSM), is proposed as a general substitute of these empirical parameters. This work continues previous analyses related to the use of QSM to QSPR, introducing molecular quantum self-similarity measures (MQS-SM) as a single working parameter in some cases. The use of MQS-SM as a molecular descriptor is first confirmed from the correlation with the aforementioned empirical parameters. The Hammett equation has been examined using MQS-SM for a series of substituted carboxylic acids. Then, for a series of aliphatic alcohols and acetic acid esters, log P values have been correlated with the self-similarity measure between density functions in water and octanol of a given molecule. And finally, some examples and applications of MQS-SM to determine QSAR are presented. In all studied cases MQS-SM appeared to be excellent molecular descriptors usable in general QSPR applications of chemical interest.

Evaluation of a novel electronic eigenvalue (EEVA) molecular descriptor for QSAR/QSPR studies: validation using a benchmark steroid data set.

PubMed

Tuppurainen, Kari; Viisas, Marja; Laatikainen, Reino; Peräkylä, Mikael

2002-01-01

A novel electronic eigenvalue (EEVA) descriptor of molecular structure for use in the derivation of predictive QSAR/QSPR models is described. Like other spectroscopic QSAR/QSPR descriptors, EEVA is also invariant as to the alignment of the structures concerned. Its performance was tested with respect to the CBG (corticosteroid binding globulin) affinity of 31 benchmark steroids. It appeared that the electronic structure of the steroids, i.e., the "spectra" derived from molecular orbital energies, is directly related to the CBG binding affinities. The predictive ability of EEVA is compared to other QSAR approaches, and its performance is discussed in the context of the Hammett equation. The good performance of EEVA is an indication of the essential quantum mechanical nature of QSAR. The EEVA method is a supplement to conventional 3D QSAR methods, which employ fields or surface properties derived from Coulombic and van der Waals interactions.

Predicting total organic halide formation from drinking water chlorination using quantitative structure-property relationships.

PubMed

Luilo, G B; Cabaniss, S E

2011-10-01

Chlorinating water which contains dissolved organic matter (DOM) produces disinfection byproducts, the majority of unknown structure. Hence, the total organic halide (TOX) measurement is used as a surrogate for toxic disinfection byproducts. This work derives a robust quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) for predicting the TOX formation potential of model compounds. Literature data for 49 compounds were used to train the QSPR in moles of chlorine per mole of compound (Cp) (mol-Cl/mol-Cp). The resulting QSPR has four descriptors, calibration [Formula: see text] of 0.72 and standard deviation of estimation of 0.43 mol-Cl/mol-Cp. Internal and external validation indicate that the QSPR has good predictive power and low bias (‰<‰1%). Applying this QSPR to predict TOX formation by DOM surrogates - tannic acid, two model fulvic acids and two agent-based model assemblages - gave a predicted TOX range of 136-184 µg-Cl/mg-C, consistent with experimental data for DOM, which ranged from 78 to 192 µg-Cl/mg-C. However, the limited structural variation in the training data may limit QSPR applicability; studies of more sulfur-containing compounds, heterocyclic compounds and high molecular weight compounds could lead to a more widely applicable QSPR.

QSPR analysis of the partitioning of vaporous chemicals in a water-gas phase system and the water solubility of liquid and solid chemicals on the basis of fragment and physicochemical similarity and hybot descriptors.

PubMed

Raevsky, O; Andreeva, E; Raevskaja, O; Skvortsov, V; Schaper, K

2005-01-01

QSPR analyses of the solubility in water of 558 vapors, 786 liquids and 2045 solid organic neutral chemicals and drugs are presented. Simultaneous consideration of H-bond acceptor and donor factors leads to a good description of the solubility of vapors and liquids. A volume-related term was found to have an essential negative contribution to the solubility of liquids. Consideration of polarizability, H-bond acceptor and donor factors and indicators for a few functional groups, as well as the experimental solubility values of structurally nearest neighbors yielded good correlations for liquids. The application of Yalkowsky's "General Solubility Equation" to 1063 solid chemicals and drugs resulted in a correlation of experimental vs calculated log S values with only modest statistical criteria. Two approaches to derive predictive models for solubility of solid chemicals and drugs were tested. The first approach was based on the QSPR for liquids together with indicator variables for different functional groups. Furthermore, a calculation of enthalpies for intermolecular complexes in crystal lattices, based on new H-bond potentials, was carried out for the better consideration of essential solubility- decreasing effects in the solid state, as compared with the liquid state. The second approach was based on a combination of similarity considerations and traditional QSPR. Both approaches lead to high quality predictions with average absolute errors on the level of experimental log S determination.

Modeling the pH and temperature dependence of aqueousphase hydroxyl radical reaction rate constants of organic micropollutants using QSPR approach.

PubMed

Gupta, Shikha; Basant, Nikita

2017-11-01

Designing of advanced oxidation process (AOP) requires knowledge of the aqueous phase hydroxyl radical ( ● OH) reactions rate constants (k OH ), which are strictly dependent upon the pH and temperature of the medium. In this study, pH- and temperature-dependent quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models based on the decision tree boost (DTB) approach were developed for the prediction of k OH of diverse organic contaminants following the OECD guidelines. Experimental datasets (n = 958) pertaining to the k OH values of aqueous phase reactions at different pH (n = 470; 1.4 × 10 6 to 3.8 × 10 10  M -1  s -1 ) and temperature (n = 171; 1.0 × 10 7 to 2.6 × 10 10  M -1  s -1 ) were considered and molecular descriptors of the compounds were derived. The Sanderson scale electronegativity, topological polar surface area, number of double bonds, and halogen atoms in the molecule, in addition to the pH and temperature, were found to be the relevant predictors. The models were validated and their external predictivity was evaluated in terms of most stringent criteria parameters derived on the test data. High values of the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and small root mean squared error (RMSE) in respective training (> 0.972, ≤ 0.12) and test (≥ 0.936, ≤ 0.16) sets indicated high generalization and predictivity of the developed QSPR model. Other statistical parameters derived from the training and test data also supported the robustness of the models and their suitability for screening new chemicals within the defined chemical space. The developed QSPR models provide a valuable tool for predicting the ● OH reaction rate constants of emerging new water contaminants for their susceptibility to AOPs.

QSPR models of n-octanol/water partition coefficients and aqueous solubility of halogenated methyl-phenyl ethers by DFT method.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiao-Lan; Wang, Hong-Jun; Wang, Yan

2012-02-01

The possible molecular geometries of 134 halogenated methyl-phenyl ethers were optimized at B3LYP/6-31G(*) level with Gaussian 98 program. The calculated structural parameters were taken as theoretical descriptors to establish two new novel QSPR models for predicting aqueous solubility (-lgS(w,l)) and n-octanol/water partition coefficient (lgK(ow)) of halogenated methyl-phenyl ethers. The two models achieved in this work both contain three variables: energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E(LUMO)), most positive atomic partial charge in molecule (q(+)), and quadrupole moment (Q(yy) or Q(zz)), of which R values are 0.992 and 0.970 respectively, their standard errors of estimate in modeling (SD) are 0.132 and 0.178, respectively. The results of leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation for training set and validation with external test sets both show that the models obtained exhibited optimum stability and good predictive power. We suggests that two QSPR models derived here can be used to predict S(w,l) and K(ow) accurately for non-tested halogenated methyl-phenyl ethers congeners. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

QSAR, QSPR and QSRR in Terms of 3-D-MoRSE Descriptors for In Silico Screening of Clofibric Acid Analogues.

PubMed

Di Tullio, Maurizio; Maccallini, Cristina; Ammazzalorso, Alessandra; Giampietro, Letizia; Amoroso, Rosa; De Filippis, Barbara; Fantacuzzi, Marialuigia; Wiczling, Paweł; Kaliszan, Roman

2012-07-01

A series of 27 analogues of clofibric acid, mostly heteroarylalkanoic derivatives, have been analyzed by a novel high-throughput reversed-phase HPLC method employing combined gradient of eluent's pH and organic modifier content. The such determined hydrophobicity (lipophilicity) parameters, log kw , and acidity constants, pKa , were subjected to multiple regression analysis to get a QSRR (Quantitative StructureRetention Relationships) and a QSPR (Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships) equation, respectively, describing these pharmacokinetics-determining physicochemical parameters in terms of the calculation chemistry derived structural descriptors. The previously determined in vitro log EC50 values - transactivation activity towards PPARα (human Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor α) - have also been described in a QSAR (Quantitative StructureActivity Relationships) equation in terms of the 3-D-MoRSE descriptors (3D-Molecule Representation of Structures based on Electron diffraction descriptors). The QSAR model derived can serve for an a priori prediction of bioactivity in vitro of any designed analogue, whereas the QSRR and the QSPR models can be used to evaluate lipophilicity and acidity, respectively, of the compounds, and hence to rational guide selection of structures of proper pharmacokinetics. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Free variable selection QSPR study to predict 19F chemical shifts of some fluorinated organic compounds using Random Forest and RBF-PLS methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goudarzi, Nasser

2016-04-01

In this work, two new and powerful chemometrics methods are applied for the modeling and prediction of the 19F chemical shift values of some fluorinated organic compounds. The radial basis function-partial least square (RBF-PLS) and random forest (RF) are employed to construct the models to predict the 19F chemical shifts. In this study, we didn't used from any variable selection method and RF method can be used as variable selection and modeling technique. Effects of the important parameters affecting the ability of the RF prediction power such as the number of trees (nt) and the number of randomly selected variables to split each node (m) were investigated. The root-mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for the training set and the prediction set for the RBF-PLS and RF models were 44.70, 23.86, 29.77, and 23.69, respectively. Also, the correlation coefficients of the prediction set for the RBF-PLS and RF models were 0.8684 and 0.9313, respectively. The results obtained reveal that the RF model can be used as a powerful chemometrics tool for the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies.

Highly diverse, massive organic data as explored by a composite QSPR strategy: an advanced study of boiling point.

PubMed

Ivanova, A A; Ivanov, A A; Oliferenko, A A; Palyulin, V A; Zefirov, N S

2005-06-01

An improved strategy of quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies of diverse and inhomogeneous organic datasets has been proposed. A molecular connectivity term was successively corrected for different structural features encoded in fragmental descriptors. The so-called solvation index 1chis (a weighted Randic index) was used as a "leading" variable and standardized molecular fragments were employed as "corrective" class-specific variables. Performance of the new approach was illustrated by modelling a dataset of experimental normal boiling points of 833 organic compounds belonging to 20 structural classes. Firstly, separate QSPR models were derived for each class and for eight groups of structurally similar classes. Finally, a general model formed by combining all the classes together was derived (r2=0.957, s=12.9degreesC). The strategy outlined can find application in QSPR analyses of massive, highly diverse databases of organic compounds.

General theory for multiple input-output perturbations in complex molecular systems. 1. Linear QSPR electronegativity models in physical, organic, and medicinal chemistry.

PubMed

González-Díaz, Humberto; Arrasate, Sonia; Gómez-SanJuan, Asier; Sotomayor, Nuria; Lete, Esther; Besada-Porto, Lina; Ruso, Juan M

2013-01-01

In general perturbation methods starts with a known exact solution of a problem and add "small" variation terms in order to approach to a solution for a related problem without known exact solution. Perturbation theory has been widely used in almost all areas of science. Bhor's quantum model, Heisenberg's matrix mechanincs, Feyman diagrams, and Poincare's chaos model or "butterfly effect" in complex systems are examples of perturbation theories. On the other hand, the study of Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSPR) in molecular complex systems is an ideal area for the application of perturbation theory. There are several problems with exact experimental solutions (new chemical reactions, physicochemical properties, drug activity and distribution, metabolic networks, etc.) in public databases like CHEMBL. However, in all these cases, we have an even larger list of related problems without known solutions. We need to know the change in all these properties after a perturbation of initial boundary conditions. It means, when we test large sets of similar, but different, compounds and/or chemical reactions under the slightly different conditions (temperature, time, solvents, enzymes, assays, protein targets, tissues, partition systems, organisms, etc.). However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no QSPR general-purpose perturbation theory to solve this problem. In this work, firstly we review general aspects and applications of both perturbation theory and QSPR models. Secondly, we formulate a general-purpose perturbation theory for multiple-boundary QSPR problems. Last, we develop three new QSPR-Perturbation theory models. The first model classify correctly >100,000 pairs of intra-molecular carbolithiations with 75-95% of Accuracy (Ac), Sensitivity (Sn), and Specificity (Sp). The model predicts probabilities of variations in the yield and enantiomeric excess of reactions due to at least one perturbation in boundary conditions (solvent, temperature

Event-based criteria in GT-STAF information indices: theory, exploratory diversity analysis and QSPR applications.

PubMed

Barigye, S J; Marrero-Ponce, Y; Martínez López, Y; Martínez Santiago, O; Torrens, F; García Domenech, R; Galvez, J

2013-01-01

Versatile event-based approaches for the definition of novel information theory-based indices (IFIs) are presented. An event in this context is the criterion followed in the "discovery" of molecular substructures, which in turn serve as basis for the construction of the generalized incidence and relations frequency matrices, Q and F, respectively. From the resultant F, Shannon's, mutual, conditional and joint entropy-based IFIs are computed. In previous reports, an event named connected subgraphs was presented. The present study is an extension of this notion, in which we introduce other events, namely: terminal paths, vertex path incidence, quantum subgraphs, walks of length k, Sach's subgraphs, MACCs, E-state and substructure fingerprints and, finally, Ghose and Crippen atom-types for hydrophobicity and refractivity. Moreover, we define magnitude-based IFIs, introducing the use of the magnitude criterion in the definition of mutual, conditional and joint entropy-based IFIs. We also discuss the use of information-theoretic parameters as a measure of the dissimilarity of codified structural information of molecules. Finally, a comparison of the statistics for QSPR models obtained with the proposed IFIs and DRAGON's molecular descriptors for two physicochemical properties log P and log K of 34 derivatives of 2-furylethylenes demonstrates similar to better predictive ability than the latter.

QSPR model for bioconcentration factors of nonpolar organic compounds using molecular electronegativity distance vector descriptors.

PubMed

Qin, Li-Tang; Liu, Shu-Shen; Liu, Hai-Ling

2010-02-01

A five-variable model (model M2) was developed for the bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of nonpolar organic compounds (NPOCs) by using molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV) to characterize the structures of NPOCs and variable selection and modeling based on prediction (VSMP) to select the optimum descriptors. The estimated correlation coefficient (r (2)) and the leave-one-out cross-validation correlation coefficients (q (2)) of model M2 were 0.9271 and 0.9171, respectively. The model was externally validated by splitting the whole data set into a representative training set of 85 chemicals and a validation set of 29 chemicals. The results show that the main structural factors influencing the BCFs of NPOCs are -cCc, cCcc, -Cl, and -Br (where "-" refers to a single bond and "c" refers to a conjugated bond). The quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model can effectively predict the BCFs of NPOCs, and the predictions of the model can also extend the current BCF database of experimental values.

Sorption behavior of 17 phthalic acid esters on three soils: effects of pH and dissolved organic matter, sorption coefficient measurement and QSPR study.

PubMed

Yang, Fen; Wang, Meng; Wang, Zunyao

2013-09-01

This work studies the sorption behaviors of phthalic acid esters (PAEs) on three soils by batch equilibration experiments and quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) methodology. Firstly, the effects of soil type, dissolved organic matter and pH on the sorption of four PAEs (DMP, DEP, DAP, DBP) are investigated. The results indicate that the soil organic carbon content has a crucial influence on sorption progress. In addition, a negative correlation between pH values and the sorption capacities was found for these four PAEs. However, the effect of DOM on PAEs sorption may be more complicated. The sorption of four PAEs was promoted by low concentrations of DOM, while, in the case of high concentrations, the influence of DOM on the sorption was complicated. Then the organic carbon content normalized sorption coefficient (logKoc) values of 17 PAEs on three soils were measured, and the mean values ranged from 1.50 to 7.57. The logKoc values showed good correlation with the corresponding logKow values. Finally, two QSPR models were developed with 13 theoretical parameters to get reliable logKoc predictions. The leave-one-out cross validation (CV-LOO) indicated that the internal predictive power of the two models was satisfactory. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadmohammadi, Younas

Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

The interplay between QSAR/QSPR studies and partial order ranking and formal concept analyses.

PubMed

Carlsen, Lars

2009-04-17

The often observed scarcity of physical-chemical and well as toxicological data hampers the assessment of potentially hazardous chemicals released to the environment. In such cases Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships/Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSAR/QSPR) constitute an obvious alternative for rapidly, effectively and inexpensively generatng missing experimental values. However, typically further treatment of the data appears necessary, e.g., to elucidate the possible relations between the single compounds as well as implications and associations between the various parameters used for the combined characterization of the compounds under investigation. In the present paper the application of QSAR/QSPR in combination with Partial Order Ranking (POR) methodologies will be reviewed and new aspects using Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) will be introduced. Where POR constitutes an attractive method for, e.g., prioritizing a series of chemical substances based on a simultaneous inclusion of a range of parameters, FCA gives important information on the implications associations between the parameters. The combined approach thus constitutes an attractive method to a preliminary assessment of the impact on environmental and human health by primary pollutants or possibly by a primary pollutant well as a possible suite of transformation subsequent products that may be both persistent in and bioaccumulating and toxic. The present review focus on the environmental - and human health impact by residuals of the rocket fuel 1,1-dimethylhydrazine (heptyl) and its transformation products as an illustrative example.

The Interplay between QSAR/QSPR Studies and Partial Order Ranking and Formal Concept Analyses

PubMed Central

Carlsen, Lars

2009-01-01

The often observed scarcity of physical-chemical and well as toxicological data hampers the assessment of potentially hazardous chemicals released to the environment. In such cases Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships/Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSAR/QSPR) constitute an obvious alternative for rapidly, effectively and inexpensively generatng missing experimental values. However, typically further treatment of the data appears necessary, e.g., to elucidate the possible relations between the single compounds as well as implications and associations between the various parameters used for the combined characterization of the compounds under investigation. In the present paper the application of QSAR/QSPR in combination with Partial Order Ranking (POR) methodologies will be reviewed and new aspects using Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) will be introduced. Where POR constitutes an attractive method for, e.g., prioritizing a series of chemical substances based on a simultaneous inclusion of a range of parameters, FCA gives important information on the implications associations between the parameters. The combined approach thus constitutes an attractive method to a preliminary assessment of the impact on environmental and human health by primary pollutants or possibly by a primary pollutant well as a possible suite of transformation subsequent products that may be both persistent in and bioaccumulating and toxic. The present review focus on the environmental – and human health impact by residuals of the rocket fuel 1,1-dimethylhydrazine (heptyl) and its transformation products as an illustrative example. PMID:19468330

Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) modeling of drug-loaded polymeric micelles via genetic function approximation.

PubMed

Wu, Wensheng; Zhang, Canyang; Lin, Wenjing; Chen, Quan; Guo, Xindong; Qian, Yu; Zhang, Lijuan

2015-01-01

Self-assembled nano-micelles of amphiphilic polymers represent a novel anticancer drug delivery system. However, their full clinical utilization remains challenging because the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) between the polymer structure and the efficacy of micelles as a drug carrier is poorly understood. Here, we developed a series of QSPR models to account for the drug loading capacity of polymeric micelles using the genetic function approximation (GFA) algorithm. These models were further evaluated by internal and external validation and a Y-randomization test in terms of stability and generalization, yielding an optimization model that is applicable to an expanded materials regime. As confirmed by experimental data, the relationship between microstructure and drug loading capacity can be well-simulated, suggesting that our models are readily applicable to the quantitative evaluation of the drug-loading capacity of polymeric micelles. Our work may offer a pathway to the design of formulation experiments.

3D-QSPR Method of Computational Technique Applied on Red Reactive Dyes by Using CoMFA Strategy

PubMed Central

Mahmood, Uzma; Rashid, Sitara; Ali, S. Ishrat; Parveen, Rasheeda; Zaheer-ul-Haq; Ambreen, Nida; Khan, Khalid Mohammed; Perveen, Shahnaz; Voelter, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

Cellulose fiber is a tremendous natural resource that has broad application in various productions including the textile industry. The dyes, which are commonly used for cellulose printing, are “reactive dyes” because of their high wet fastness and brilliant colors. The interaction of various dyes with the cellulose fiber depends upon the physiochemical properties that are governed by specific features of the dye molecule. The binding pattern of the reactive dye with cellulose fiber is called the ligand-receptor concept. In the current study, the three dimensional quantitative structure property relationship (3D-QSPR) technique was applied to understand the red reactive dyes interactions with the cellulose by the Comparative Molecular Field Analysis (CoMFA) method. This method was successfully utilized to predict a reliable model. The predicted model gives satisfactory statistical results and in the light of these, it was further analyzed. Additionally, the graphical outcomes (contour maps) help us to understand the modification pattern and to correlate the structural changes with respect to the absorptivity. Furthermore, the final selected model has potential to assist in understanding the charachteristics of the external test set. The study could be helpful to design new reactive dyes with better affinity and selectivity for the cellulose fiber. PMID:22272108

Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) Modeling of Drug-Loaded Polymeric Micelles via Genetic Function Approximation

PubMed Central

Lin, Wenjing; Chen, Quan; Guo, Xindong; Qian, Yu; Zhang, Lijuan

2015-01-01

Self-assembled nano-micelles of amphiphilic polymers represent a novel anticancer drug delivery system. However, their full clinical utilization remains challenging because the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) between the polymer structure and the efficacy of micelles as a drug carrier is poorly understood. Here, we developed a series of QSPR models to account for the drug loading capacity of polymeric micelles using the genetic function approximation (GFA) algorithm. These models were further evaluated by internal and external validation and a Y-randomization test in terms of stability and generalization, yielding an optimization model that is applicable to an expanded materials regime. As confirmed by experimental data, the relationship between microstructure and drug loading capacity can be well-simulated, suggesting that our models are readily applicable to the quantitative evaluation of the drug-loading capacity of polymeric micelles. Our work may offer a pathway to the design of formulation experiments. PMID:25780923

Rationalizing fragment based drug discovery for BACE1: insights from FB-QSAR, FB-QSSR, multi objective (MO-QSPR) and MIF studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoharan, Prabu; Vijayan, R. S. K.; Ghoshal, Nanda

2010-10-01

The ability to identify fragments that interact with a biological target is a key step in FBDD. To date, the concept of fragment based drug design (FBDD) is increasingly driven by bio-physical methods. To expand the boundaries of QSAR paradigm, and to rationalize FBDD using In silico approach, we propose a fragment based QSAR methodology referred here in as FB-QSAR. The FB-QSAR methodology was validated on a dataset consisting of 52 Hydroxy ethylamine (HEA) inhibitors, disclosed by GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals as potential anti-Alzheimer agents. To address the issue of target selectivity, a major confounding factor in the development of selective BACE1 inhibitors, FB-QSSR models were developed using the reported off target activity values. A heat map constructed, based on the activity and selectivity profile of the individual R-group fragments, and was in turn used to identify superior R-group fragments. Further, simultaneous optimization of multiple properties, an issue encountered in real-world drug discovery scenario, and often overlooked in QSAR approaches, was addressed using a Multi Objective (MO-QSPR) method that balances properties, based on the defined objectives. MO-QSPR was implemented using Derringer and Suich desirability algorithm to identify the optimal level of independent variables ( X) that could confer a trade-off between selectivity and activity. The results obtained from FB-QSAR were further substantiated using MIF (Molecular Interaction Fields) studies. To exemplify the potentials of FB-QSAR and MO-QSPR in a pragmatic fashion, the insights gleaned from the MO-QSPR study was reverse engineered using Inverse-QSAR in a combinatorial fashion to enumerate some prospective novel, potent and selective BACE1 inhibitors.

Rationalizing fragment based drug discovery for BACE1: insights from FB-QSAR, FB-QSSR, multi objective (MO-QSPR) and MIF studies.

PubMed

Manoharan, Prabu; Vijayan, R S K; Ghoshal, Nanda

2010-10-01

The ability to identify fragments that interact with a biological target is a key step in FBDD. To date, the concept of fragment based drug design (FBDD) is increasingly driven by bio-physical methods. To expand the boundaries of QSAR paradigm, and to rationalize FBDD using In silico approach, we propose a fragment based QSAR methodology referred here in as FB-QSAR. The FB-QSAR methodology was validated on a dataset consisting of 52 Hydroxy ethylamine (HEA) inhibitors, disclosed by GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals as potential anti-Alzheimer agents. To address the issue of target selectivity, a major confounding factor in the development of selective BACE1 inhibitors, FB-QSSR models were developed using the reported off target activity values. A heat map constructed, based on the activity and selectivity profile of the individual R-group fragments, and was in turn used to identify superior R-group fragments. Further, simultaneous optimization of multiple properties, an issue encountered in real-world drug discovery scenario, and often overlooked in QSAR approaches, was addressed using a Multi Objective (MO-QSPR) method that balances properties, based on the defined objectives. MO-QSPR was implemented using Derringer and Suich desirability algorithm to identify the optimal level of independent variables (X) that could confer a trade-off between selectivity and activity. The results obtained from FB-QSAR were further substantiated using MIF (Molecular Interaction Fields) studies. To exemplify the potentials of FB-QSAR and MO-QSPR in a pragmatic fashion, the insights gleaned from the MO-QSPR study was reverse engineered using Inverse-QSAR in a combinatorial fashion to enumerate some prospective novel, potent and selective BACE1 inhibitors.

QSPR study of polychlorinated diphenyl ethers by molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV-4).

PubMed

Sun, Lili; Zhou, Liping; Yu, Yu; Lan, Yukun; Li, Zhiliang

2007-01-01

Polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDEs) have received more and more concerns as a group of ubiquitous potential persistent organic pollutants (POPs). By using molecular electronegativity distance vector (MEDV-4), multiple linear regression (MLR) models are developed for sub-cooled liquid vapor pressures (P(L)), n-octanol/water partition coefficients (K(OW)) and sub-cooled liquid water solubilities (S(W,L)) of 209 PCDEs and diphenyl ether. The correlation coefficients (R) and the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) correlation coefficients (R(CV)) of all the 6-descriptor models for logP(L), logK(OW) and logS(W,L) are more than 0.98. By using stepwise multiple regression (SMR), the descriptors are selected and the resulting models are 5-descriptor model for logP(L), 4-descriptor model for logK(OW), and 6-descriptor model for logS(W,L), respectively. All these models exhibit excellent estimate capabilities for internal sample set and good predictive capabilities for external samples set. The consistency between observed and estimated/predicted values for logP(L) is the best (R=0.996, R(CV)=0.996), followed by logK(OW) (R=0.992, R(CV)=0.992) and logS(W,L) (R=0.983, R(CV)=0.980). By using MEDV-4 descriptors, the QSPR models can be used for prediction and the model predictions can hence extend the current database of experimental values.

Developing descriptors to predict mechanical properties of nanotubes.

PubMed

Borders, Tammie L; Fonseca, Alexandre F; Zhang, Hengji; Cho, Kyeongjae; Rusinko, Andrew

2013-04-22

Descriptors and quantitative structure property relationships (QSPR) were investigated for mechanical property prediction of carbon nanotubes (CNTs). 78 molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out, and 20 descriptors were calculated to build quantitative structure property relationships (QSPRs) for Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio in two separate analyses: vacancy only and vacancy plus methyl functionalization. In the first analysis, C(N2)/C(T) (number of non-sp2 hybridized carbons per the total carbons) and chiral angle were identified as critical descriptors for both Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Further analysis and literature findings indicate the effect of chiral angle is negligible at larger CNT radii for both properties. Raman spectroscopy can be used to measure C(N2)/C(T), providing a direct link between experimental and computational results. Poisson's ratio approaches two different limiting values as CNT radii increases: 0.23-0.25 for chiral and armchair CNTs and 0.10 for zigzag CNTs (surface defects <3%). In the second analysis, the critical descriptors were C(N2)/C(T), chiral angle, and M(N)/C(T) (number of methyl groups per total carbons). These results imply new types of defects can be represented as a new descriptor in QSPR models. Finally, results are qualified and quantified against experimental data.

Comparison of fate profiles of PAHs in soil, sediments and mangrove leaves after oil spills by QSAR and QSPR.

PubMed

Tansel, Berrin; Lee, Mengshan; Tansel, Derya Z

2013-08-15

First order removal rates for 15 polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil, sediments and mangrove leaves were compared in relation to the parameters used in fate transport analyses (i.e., octanol-water partition coefficient, organic carbon-water partition coefficient, solubility, diffusivity in water, HOMO-LUMO gap, molecular size, molecular aspect ratio). The quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) and quantitative structure property relationships (QSPR) showed that the rate of disappearance of PAHs is correlated with their diffusivities in water as well as molecular volumes in different media. Strong correlations for the rate of disappearance of PAHs in sediments could not be obtained in relation to most of the parameters evaluated. The analyses showed that the QSAR and QSPR correlations developed for removal rates of PAHs in soils would not be adequate for sediments and plant tissues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive modeling: Solubility of C60 and C70 fullerenes in diverse solvents.

PubMed

Gupta, Shikha; Basant, Nikita

2018-06-01

Solubility of fullerenes imposes a major limitation to further advanced research and technological development using these novel materials. There have been continued efforts to discover better solvents and their properties that influence the solubility of fullerenes. Here, we have developed QSPR (quantitative structure-property relationship) models based on structural features of diverse solvents and large experimental data for predicting the solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes. The developed models identified most relevant features of the solvents that encode the polarizability, polarity and lipophilicity properties which largely influence the solubilizing potential of the solvent for the fullerenes. We also established Inter-moieties solubility correlations (IMSC) based quantitative property-property relationship (QPPR) models for predicting solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes. The QSPR and QPPR models were internally and externally validated deriving the most stringent statistical criteria and predicted C 60 and C 70 solubility values in different solvents were in close agreement with the experimental values. In test sets, the QSPR models yielded high correlations (R 2  > 0.964) and low root mean squared error of prediction errors (RMSEP< 0.25). Results of comparison with other studies indicated that the proposed models could effectively improve the accuracy and ability for predicting solubility of C 60 and C 70 fullerenes in solvents with diverse structures and would be useful in development of more effective solvents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro prediction of gastrointestinal absorption of novel β-hydroxy-β-arylalkanoic acids using PAMPA technique.

PubMed

Savić, Jelena; Dobričić, Vladimir; Nikolic, Katarina; Vladimirov, Sote; Dilber, Sanda; Brborić, Jasmina

2017-03-30

Prediction of gastrointestinal absorption of thirteen newly synthesized β-hydroxy-β-arylalkanoic acids (HAA) and ibuprofen was performed using PAMPA test. The highest values of PAMPA parameters (%T and P app ) were calculated for 1C, 1B and 2C and these parameters were significantly lower in comparison to ibuprofen. QSPR analysis was performed in order to identify molecular descriptors with the highest influence on %T and -logP app and to create models which could be used for the design of novel HAA with improved gastrointestinal absorption. Obtained results indicate that introduction of branched side chain, as well as introduction of substituents on one phenyl ring (which disturb symmetry of the molecule) could have positive impact on gastrointestinal absorption. On the basis of these results, six novel HAA were designed and PAMPA parameters %T and -logP app were predicted by use of selected QSPR models. Designed derivatives should have better gastrointestinal absorption than HAA tested in this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A quasi-QSPR modelling for the photocatalytic decolourization rate constants and cellular viability (CV%) of nanoparticles by CORAL.

PubMed

Toropova, A P; Toropov, A A; Benfenati, E

2015-01-01

Most quantitative structure-property/activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs) predict various endpoints related to organic compounds. Gradually, the variety of organic compounds has been extended to inorganic, organometallic compounds and polymers. However, the so-called molecular descriptors cannot be defined for super-complex substances such as different nanomaterials and peptides, since there is no simple and clear representation of their molecular structure. Some possible ways to define approaches for a predictive model in the case of super-complex substances are discussed. The basic idea of the approach is to change the traditionally used paradigm 'the endpoint is a mathematical function of the molecular structure' with another paradigm 'the endpoint is a mathematical function of available eclectic information'. The eclectic data can be (i) conditions of a synthesis, (ii) technological attributes, (iii) size of nanoparticles, (iv) concentration, (v) attributes related to cell membranes, and so on. Two examples of quasi-QSPR/QSAR analyses are presented and discussed. These are (i) photocatalytic decolourization rate constants (DRC) (10(-5)/s) of different nanopowders; and (ii) the cellular viability under the effect of nano-SiO(2).

Essential Set of Molecular Descriptors for ADME Prediction in Drug and Environmental Chemical Space

EPA Science Inventory

Historically, the disciplines of pharmacology and toxicology have embraced quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) and quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) to predict ADME properties or biological activities of untested chemicals. The question arises ...

Use of biopartitioning micellar chromatography and RP-HPLC for the determination of blood-brain barrier penetration of α-adrenergic/imidazoline receptor ligands, and QSPR analysis.

PubMed

Vucicevic, J; Popovic, M; Nikolic, K; Filipic, S; Obradovic, D; Agbaba, D

2017-03-01

For this study, 31 compounds, including 16 imidazoline/α-adrenergic receptor (IRs/α-ARs) ligands and 15 central nervous system (CNS) drugs, were characterized in terms of the retention factors (k) obtained using biopartitioning micellar and classical reversed phase chromatography (log k BMC and log k wRP , respectively). Based on the retention factor (log k wRP ) and slope of the linear curve (S) the isocratic parameter (φ 0 ) was calculated. Obtained retention factors were correlated with experimental log BB values for the group of examined compounds. High correlations were obtained between logarithm of biopartitioning micellar chromatography (BMC) retention factor and effective permeability (r(log k BMC /log BB): 0.77), while for RP-HPLC system the correlations were lower (r(log k wRP /log BB): 0.58; r(S/log BB): -0.50; r(φ 0 /P e ): 0.61). Based on the log k BMC retention data and calculated molecular parameters of the examined compounds, quantitative structure-permeability relationship (QSPR) models were developed using partial least squares, stepwise multiple linear regression, support vector machine and artificial neural network methodologies. A high degree of structural diversity of the analysed IRs/α-ARs ligands and CNS drugs provides wide applicability domain of the QSPR models for estimation of blood-brain barrier penetration of the related compounds.

A general structure-property relationship to predict the enthalpy of vaporisation at ambient temperatures.

PubMed

Oberg, T

2007-01-01

The vapour pressure is the most important property of an anthropogenic organic compound in determining its partitioning between the atmosphere and the other environmental media. The enthalpy of vaporisation quantifies the temperature dependence of the vapour pressure and its value around 298 K is needed for environmental modelling. The enthalpy of vaporisation can be determined by different experimental methods, but estimation methods are needed to extend the current database and several approaches are available from the literature. However, these methods have limitations, such as a need for other experimental results as input data, a limited applicability domain, a lack of domain definition, and a lack of predictive validation. Here we have attempted to develop a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) that has general applicability and is thoroughly validated. Enthalpies of vaporisation at 298 K were collected from the literature for 1835 pure compounds. The three-dimensional (3D) structures were optimised and each compound was described by a set of computationally derived descriptors. The compounds were randomly assigned into a calibration set and a prediction set. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to estimate a low-dimensional QSPR model with 12 latent variables. The predictive performance of this model, within the domain of application, was estimated at n=560, q2Ext=0.968 and s=0.028 (log transformed values). The QSPR model was subsequently applied to a database of 100,000+ structures, after a similar 3D optimisation and descriptor generation. Reliable predictions can be reported for compounds within the previously defined applicability domain.

Prediction of blood-brain barrier permeation of α-adrenergic and imidazoline receptor ligands using PAMPA technique and quantitative-structure permeability relationship analysis.

PubMed

Vucicevic, Jelica; Nikolic, Katarina; Dobričić, Vladimir; Agbaba, Danica

2015-02-20

Imidazoline receptor ligands are a numerous family of biologically active compounds known to produce central hypotensive effect by interaction with both α2-adrenoreceptors (α2-AR) and imidazoline receptors (IRs). Recent hypotheses connect those ligands with several neurological disorders. Therefore some IRs ligands are examined as novel centrally acting antihypertensives and drug candidates for treatment of various neurological diseases. Effective Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB) permeability (P(e)) of 18 IRs/α-ARs ligands and 22 Central Nervous System (CNS) drugs was experimentally determined using Parallel Artificial Membrane Permeability Assay (PAMPA) and studied by the Quantitative-Structure-Permeability Relationship (QSPR) methodology. The dominant molecules/cations species of compounds have been calculated at pH = 7.4. The analyzed ligands were optimized using Density Functional Theory (B3LYP/6-31G(d,p)) included in ChemBio3D Ultra 13.0 program and molecule descriptors for optimized compounds were calculated using ChemBio3D Ultra 13.0, Dragon 6.0 and ADMET predictor 6.5 software. Effective permeability of compounds was used as dependent variable (Y), while calculated molecular parametres were used as independent variables (X) in the QSPR study. SIMCA P+ 12.0 was used for Partial Least Square (PLS) analysis, while the stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling were performed using STASTICA Neural Networks 4.0. Predictive potential of the formed models was confirmed by Leave-One-Out Cross- and external-validation and the most reliable models were selected. The descriptors that are important for model building are identified as well as their influence on BBB permeability. Results of the QSPR studies could be used as time and cost efficient screening tools for evaluation of BBB permeation of novel α-adrenergic/imidazoline receptor ligands, as promising drug candidates for treatment of hypertension or neurological diseases

Computational modeling of human oral bioavailability: what will be next?

PubMed

Cabrera-Pérez, Miguel Ángel; Pham-The, Hai

2018-06-01

The oral route is the most convenient way of administrating drugs. Therefore, accurate determination of oral bioavailability is paramount during drug discovery and development. Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR), rule-of-thumb (RoT) and physiologically based-pharmacokinetic (PBPK) approaches are promising alternatives to the early oral bioavailability prediction. Areas covered: The authors give insight into the factors affecting bioavailability, the fundamental theoretical framework and the practical aspects of computational methods for predicting this property. They also give their perspectives on future computational models for estimating oral bioavailability. Expert opinion: Oral bioavailability is a multi-factorial pharmacokinetic property with its accurate prediction challenging. For RoT and QSPR modeling, the reliability of datasets, the significance of molecular descriptor families and the diversity of chemometric tools used are important factors that define model predictability and interpretability. Likewise, for PBPK modeling the integrity of the pharmacokinetic data, the number of input parameters, the complexity of statistical analysis and the software packages used are relevant factors in bioavailability prediction. Although these approaches have been utilized independently, the tendency to use hybrid QSPR-PBPK approaches together with the exploration of ensemble and deep-learning systems for QSPR modeling of oral bioavailability has opened new avenues for development promising tools for oral bioavailability prediction.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Lead Optimization. 1. Evaluation and Adaptation of GastroPlus To Predict Bioavailability of Medchem Series.

PubMed

Daga, Pankaj R; Bolger, Michael B; Haworth, Ian S; Clark, Robert D; Martin, Eric J

2018-03-05

When medicinal chemists need to improve bioavailability (%F) within a chemical series during lead optimization, they synthesize new series members with systematically modified properties mainly by following experience and general rules of thumb. More quantitative models that predict %F of proposed compounds from chemical structure alone have proven elusive. Global empirical %F quantitative structure-property (QSPR) models perform poorly, and projects have too little data to train local %F QSPR models. Mechanistic oral absorption and physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models simulate the dissolution, absorption, systemic distribution, and clearance of a drug in preclinical species and humans. Attempts to build global PBPK models based purely on calculated inputs have not achieved the <2-fold average error needed to guide lead optimization. In this work, local GastroPlus PBPK models are instead customized for individual medchem series. The key innovation was building a local QSPR for a numerically fitted effective intrinsic clearance (CL loc ). All inputs are subsequently computed from structure alone, so the models can be applied in advance of synthesis. Training CL loc on the first 15-18 rat %F measurements gave adequate predictions, with clear improvements up to about 30 measurements, and incremental improvements beyond that.

Computer-aided design of liposomal drugs: In silico prediction and experimental validation of drug candidates for liposomal remote loading.

PubMed

Cern, Ahuva; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Tropsha, Alexander; Goldblum, Amiram

2014-01-10

Previously we have developed and statistically validated Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models that correlate drugs' structural, physical and chemical properties as well as experimental conditions with the relative efficiency of remote loading of drugs into liposomes (Cern et al., J. Control. Release 160 (2012) 147-157). Herein, these models have been used to virtually screen a large drug database to identify novel candidate molecules for liposomal drug delivery. Computational hits were considered for experimental validation based on their predicted remote loading efficiency as well as additional considerations such as availability, recommended dose and relevance to the disease. Three compounds were selected for experimental testing which were confirmed to be correctly classified by our previously reported QSPR models developed with Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE) and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) approaches. In addition, 10 new molecules with known liposome remote loading efficiency that were not used by us in QSPR model development were identified in the published literature and employed as an additional model validation set. The external accuracy of the models was found to be as high as 82% or 92%, depending on the model. This study presents the first successful application of QSPR models for the computer-model-driven design of liposomal drugs. © 2013.

Computer-aided design of liposomal drugs: in silico prediction and experimental validation of drug candidates for liposomal remote loading

PubMed Central

Cern, Ahuva; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Tropsha, Alexander; Goldblum, Amiram

2014-01-01

Previously we have developed and statistically validated Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models that correlate drugs’ structural, physical and chemical properties as well as experimental conditions with the relative efficiency of remote loading of drugs into liposomes (Cern et al, Journal of Controlled Release, 160(2012) 14–157). Herein, these models have been used to virtually screen a large drug database to identify novel candidate molecules for liposomal drug delivery. Computational hits were considered for experimental validation based on their predicted remote loading efficiency as well as additional considerations such as availability, recommended dose and relevance to the disease. Three compounds were selected for experimental testing which were confirmed to be correctly classified by our previously reported QSPR models developed with Iterative Stochastic Elimination (ISE) and k-nearest neighbors (kNN) approaches. In addition, 10 new molecules with known liposome remote loading efficiency that were not used in QSPR model development were identified in the published literature and employed as an additional model validation set. The external accuracy of the models was found to be as high as 82% or 92%, depending on the model. This study presents the first successful application of QSPR models for the computer-model-driven design of liposomal drugs. PMID:24184343

PREDICTING THE ADSORPTION CAPACITY OF ACTIVATED CARBON FOR ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS FROM ADSORBENT AND ADSORBATE PROPERTIES

EPA Science Inventory

A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) was developed and combined with the Polanyi-Dubinin-Manes model to predict adsorption isotherms of emerging contaminants on activated carbons with a wide range of physico-chemical properties. Affinity coefficients (β_l

PREDICTING THE ADSORPTION CAPACITY OF ACTIVATED CARBON FOR EMERGING ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS FROM FUNDAMENTAL ADSORBENT AND ADSORBATE PROPERTIES - PRESENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) was developed and combined with the Polanyi-Dubinin-Manes model to predict adsorption isotherms of emerging contaminants on activated carbons with a wide range of physico-chemical properties. Affinity coefficients (β_l

Random forest models to predict aqueous solubility.

PubMed

Palmer, David S; O'Boyle, Noel M; Glen, Robert C; Mitchell, John B O

2007-01-01

Random Forest regression (RF), Partial-Least-Squares (PLS) regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to develop QSPR models for the prediction of aqueous solubility, based on experimental data for 988 organic molecules. The Random Forest regression model predicted aqueous solubility more accurately than those created by PLS, SVM, and ANN and offered methods for automatic descriptor selection, an assessment of descriptor importance, and an in-parallel measure of predictive ability, all of which serve to recommend its use. The prediction of log molar solubility for an external test set of 330 molecules that are solid at 25 degrees C gave an r2 = 0.89 and RMSE = 0.69 log S units. For a standard data set selected from the literature, the model performed well with respect to other documented methods. Finally, the diversity of the training and test sets are compared to the chemical space occupied by molecules in the MDL drug data report, on the basis of molecular descriptors selected by the regression analysis.

Prediction of Physicochemical Properties of Energetic Materials for Identification of Treatment Technologies for Waste Streams

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

estimate the pharmacokinetics of potential drugs (Horning and Klamt 2005). QSPR/ QSARs also have potential applications in the fuel science field...group contribution methods, and (2) quantitative structure-property/activity relationships (QSPR/ QSAR ). The group contribution methods are primarily...development of QSPR/ QSARs is the identification of the ap- propriate set of descriptors that allow the desired attribute of the compound to be adequately

QSPR modeling of octanol/water partition coefficient for vitamins by optimal descriptors calculated with SMILES.

PubMed

Toropov, A A; Toropova, A P; Raska, I

2008-04-01

Simplified molecular input line entry system (SMILES) has been utilized in constructing quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) for octanol/water partition coefficient of vitamins and organic compounds of different classes by optimal descriptors. Statistical characteristics of the best model (vitamins) are the following: n=17, R(2)=0.9841, s=0.634, F=931 (training set); n=7, R(2)=0.9928, s=0.773, F=690 (test set). Using this approach for modeling octanol/water partition coefficient for a set of organic compounds gives a model that is statistically characterized by n=69, R(2)=0.9872, s=0.156, F=5184 (training set) and n=70, R(2)=0.9841, s=0.179, F=4195 (test set).

QSPR/QSAR in N-[(dimethylamine)methyl] benzamides substituents groups influence upon electronic distribution and local anesthetics activity.

PubMed

Tavares, Leoberto Costa; do Amaral, Antonia Tavares

2004-03-15

It was determined, with a systematic mode, the carbonyl group frequency in the region of the infrared of N-[(dimethylamine)methyl] benzamides 4-substituted (set A) and their hydrochlorides (set B), that had its local anesthetical activity evaluated. The application of the Hammett equation considering the values of the absorption frequency of carbonyl group, nu(C=O,) using the electronic constants sigma, sigma(I), sigma(R), I and R leads to meaningful correlation. The nature and the contribution of substituent group electronic effects on the polarity of the carbonyl group was also analyzed. The use of the nu(C=O) as an experimental electronic parameter for QSPR studies was validated.

Harmony Search as a Powerful Tool for Feature Selection in QSPR Study of the Drugs Lipophilicity.

PubMed

Bahadori, Behnoosh; Atabati, Morteza

2017-01-01

Aims & Scope: Lipophilicity represents one of the most studied and most frequently used fundamental physicochemical properties. In the present work, harmony search (HS) algorithm is suggested to feature selection in quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) modeling to predict lipophilicity of neutral, acidic, basic and amphotheric drugs that were determined by UHPLC. Harmony search is a music-based metaheuristic optimization algorithm. It was affected by the observation that the aim of music is to search for a perfect state of harmony. Semi-empirical quantum-chemical calculations at AM1 level were used to find the optimum 3D geometry of the studied molecules and variant descriptors (1497 descriptors) were calculated by the Dragon software. The selected descriptors by harmony search algorithm (9 descriptors) were applied for model development using multiple linear regression (MLR). In comparison with other feature selection methods such as genetic algorithm and simulated annealing, harmony search algorithm has better results. The root mean square error (RMSE) with and without leave-one out cross validation (LOOCV) were obtained 0.417 and 0.302, respectively. The results were compared with those obtained from the genetic algorithm and simulated annealing methods and it showed that the HS is a helpful tool for feature selection with fine performance. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Prediction of Environmental Impact of High-Energy Materials with Atomistic Computer Simulations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

from a training set of compounds. Other methods include Quantitative Struc- ture-Activity Relationship ( QSAR ) and Quantitative Structure-Property...26 28 the development of QSPR/ QSAR models, in contrast to boiling points and critical parameters derived from empirical correlations, to improve...Quadratic Configuration Interaction Singles Doubles QSAR Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship QSPR Quantitative Structure-Property

Estimating persistence of brominated and chlorinated organic pollutants in air, water, soil, and sediments with the QSPR-based classification scheme.

PubMed

Puzyn, T; Haranczyk, M; Suzuki, N; Sakurai, T

2011-02-01

We have estimated degradation half-lives of both brominated and chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PBDDs and PCDDs), furans (PBDFs and PCDFs), biphenyls (PBBs and PCBs), naphthalenes (PBNs and PCNs), diphenyl ethers (PBDEs and PCDEs) as well as selected unsubstituted polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air, surface water, surface soil, and sediments (in total of 1,431 compounds in four compartments). Next, we compared the persistence between chloro- (relatively well-studied) and bromo- (less studied) analogs. The predictions have been performed based on the quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) scheme with use of k-nearest neighbors (kNN) classifier and the semi-quantitative system of persistence classes. The classification models utilized principal components derived from the principal component analysis of a set of 24 constitutional and quantum mechanical descriptors as input variables. Accuracies of classification (based on an external validation) were 86, 85, 87, and 75% for air, surface water, surface soil, and sediments, respectively. The persistence of all chlorinated species increased with increasing halogenation degree. In the case of brominated organic pollutants (Br-OPs), the trend was the same for air and sediments. However, we noticed that the opposite trend for persistence in surface water and soil. The results suggest that, due to high photoreactivity of C-Br chemical bonds, photolytic processes occurring in surface water and soil are able to play significant role in transforming and removing Br-OPs from these compartments. This contribution is the first attempt of classifying together Br-OPs and Cl-OPs according to their persistence, in particular, environmental compartments.

ADME evaluation in drug discovery. 1. Applications of genetic algorithms to the prediction of blood-brain partitioning of a large set of drugs.

PubMed

Hou, Tingjun; Xu, Xiaojie

2002-12-01

In this study, the relationships between the brain-blood concentration ratio of 96 structurally diverse compounds with a large number of structurally derived descriptors were investigated. The linear models were based on molecular descriptors that can be calculated for any compound simply from a knowledge of its molecular structure. The linear correlation coefficients of the models were optimized by genetic algorithms (GAs), and the descriptors used in the linear models were automatically selected from 27 structurally derived descriptors. The GA optimizations resulted in a group of linear models with three or four molecular descriptors with good statistical significance. The change of descriptor use as the evolution proceeds demonstrates that the octane/water partition coefficient and the partial negative solvent-accessible surface area multiplied by the negative charge are crucial to brain-blood barrier permeability. Moreover, we found that the predictions using multiple QSPR models from GA optimization gave quite good results in spite of the diversity of structures, which was better than the predictions using the best single model. The predictions for the two external sets with 37 diverse compounds using multiple QSPR models indicate that the best linear models with four descriptors are sufficiently effective for predictive use. Considering the ease of computation of the descriptors, the linear models may be used as general utilities to screen the blood-brain barrier partitioning of drugs in a high-throughput fashion.

Impact of Chemical Structure on Conjunctival Drug Permeability: Adopting Porcine Conjunctiva and Cassette Dosing for Construction of In Silico Model.

PubMed

Ramsay, Eva; Ruponen, Marika; Picardat, Théo; Tengvall, Unni; Tuomainen, Marjo; Auriola, Seppo; Toropainen, Elisa; Urtti, Arto; Del Amo, Eva M

2017-09-01

Conjunctiva occupies most of the ocular surface area, and conjunctival permeability affects ocular and systemic drug absorption of topical ocular medications. Therefore, the aim of this study was to obtain a computational in silico model for structure-based prediction of conjunctival drug permeability. This was done by employing cassette dosing and quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) approach. Permeability studies were performed ex vivo across fresh porcine conjunctiva and simultaneous dosing of a cassette mixture composed of 32 clinically relevant drug molecules with wide chemical space. The apparent permeability values were obtained using drug concentrations that were quantified with liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry. The experimental data were utilized for building a QSPR model for conjunctival permeability predictions. The conjunctival permeability values presented a 17-fold range (0.63-10.74 × 10 -6 cm/s). The final QSPR had a Q 2 value of 0.62 and predicted the external test set with a mean fold error of 1.34. The polar surface area, hydrogen bond donor, and halogen ratio were the most relevant descriptors for defining conjunctival permeability. This work presents for the first time a predictive QSPR model of conjunctival drug permeability and a comprehensive description on conjunctival isolation from the porcine eye. The model can be used for developing new ocular drugs. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards the Application of Structure-Property Relationship Modeling in Materials Science: Predicting the Seebeck Coefficient for Ionic Liquid/Redox Couple Systems.

PubMed

Sosnowska, Anita; Barycki, Maciej; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Bobrowski, Maciej; Freza, Sylwia; Skurski, Piotr; Uhl, Stefanie; Laux, Edith; Journot, Tony; Jeandupeux, Laure; Keppner, Herbert; Puzyn, Tomasz

2016-06-03

This work focuses on determining the influence of both ionic-liquid (IL) type and redox couple concentration on Seebeck coefficient values of such a system. The quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) and read-across techniques are proposed as methods to identify structural features of ILs (mixed with LiI/I2 redox couple), which have the most influence on the Seebeck coefficient (Se ) values of the system. ILs consisting of small, symmetric cations and anions with high values of vertical electron binding energy are recognized as those with the highest values of Se . In addition, the QSPR model enables the values of Se to be predicted for each IL that belongs to the applicability domain of the model. The influence of the redox-couple concentration on values of Se is also quantitatively described. Thus, it is possible to calculate how the value of Se will change with changing redox-couple concentration. The presence of the LiI/I2 redox couple in lower concentrations increases the values of Se , as expected. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Compound analysis via graph kernels incorporating chirality.

PubMed

Brown, J B; Urata, Takashi; Tamura, Takeyuki; Arai, Midori A; Kawabata, Takeo; Akutsu, Tatsuya

2010-12-01

High accuracy is paramount when predicting biochemical characteristics using Quantitative Structural-Property Relationships (QSPRs). Although existing graph-theoretic kernel methods combined with machine learning techniques are efficient for QSPR model construction, they cannot distinguish topologically identical chiral compounds which often exhibit different biological characteristics. In this paper, we propose a new method that extends the recently developed tree pattern graph kernel to accommodate stereoisomers. We show that Support Vector Regression (SVR) with a chiral graph kernel is useful for target property prediction by demonstrating its application to a set of human vitamin D receptor ligands currently under consideration for their potential anti-cancer effects.

[A prediction model for the activity of insecticidal crystal proteins from Bacillus thuringiensis based on support vector machine].

PubMed

Lin, Yi; Cai, Fu-Ying; Zhang, Guang-Ya

2007-01-01

A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model in terms of amino acid composition and the activity of Bacillus thuringiensis insecticidal crystal proteins was established. Support vector machine (SVM) is a novel general machine-learning tool based on the structural risk minimization principle that exhibits good generalization when fault samples are few; it is especially suitable for classification, forecasting, and estimation in cases where small amounts of samples are involved such as fault diagnosis; however, some parameters of SVM are selected based on the experience of the operator, which has led to decreased efficiency of SVM in practical application. The uniform design (UD) method was applied to optimize the running parameters of SVM. It was found that the average accuracy rate approached 73% when the penalty factor was 0.01, the epsilon 0.2, the gamma 0.05, and the range 0.5. The results indicated that UD might be used an effective method to optimize the parameters of SVM and SVM and could be used as an alternative powerful modeling tool for QSPR studies of the activity of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insecticidal crystal proteins. Therefore, a novel method for predicting the insecticidal activity of Bt insecticidal crystal proteins was proposed by the authors of this study.

Chemometric analysis of correlations between electronic absorption characteristics and structural and/or physicochemical parameters for ampholytic substances of biological and pharmaceutical relevance.

PubMed

Judycka-Proma, U; Bober, L; Gajewicz, A; Puzyn, T; Błażejowski, J

2015-03-05

Forty ampholytic compounds of biological and pharmaceutical relevance were subjected to chemometric analysis based on unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms. This enabled relations to be found between empirical spectral characteristics derived from electronic absorption data and structural and physicochemical parameters predicted by quantum chemistry methods or phenomenological relationships based on additivity rules. It was found that the energies of long wavelength absorption bands are correlated through multiparametric linear relationships with parameters reflecting the bulkiness features of the absorbing molecules as well as their nucleophilicity and electrophilicity. These dependences enable the quantitative analysis of spectral features of the compounds, as well as a comparison of their similarities and certain pharmaceutical and biological features. Three QSPR models to predict the energies of long-wavelength absorption in buffers with pH=2.5 and pH=7.0, as well as in methanol, were developed and validated in this study. These models can be further used to predict the long-wavelength absorption energies of untested substances (if they are structurally similar to the training compounds). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Considerations of nano-QSAR/QSPR models for nanopesticide risk assessment within the European legislative framework.

PubMed

Villaverde, Juan José; Sevilla-Morán, Beatriz; López-Goti, Carmen; Alonso-Prados, José Luis; Sandín-España, Pilar

2018-09-01

The European market for pesticides is currently legislated through the well-developed Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009. This regulation promotes the competitiveness of European agriculture, recognizing the necessity of safe pesticides for human and animal health and the environment to protect crops against pests, diseases and weeds. In this sense, nanotechnology can provide a tremendous opportunity to achieve a more rational use of pesticides. However, the lack of information regarding nanopesticides and their fate and behavior in the environment and their effects on human and animal health is inhibiting rapid nanopesticide incorporation into European Union agriculture. This review analyzes the recent state of knowledge on nanopesticide risk assessment, highlighting the challenges that need to be overcame to accelerate the arrival of these new tools for plant protection to European agricultural professionals. Novel nano-Quantitative Structure-Activity/Structure-Property Relationship (nano-QSAR/QSPR) tools for risk assessment are analyzed, including modeling methods and validation procedures towards the potential of these computational instruments to meet the current requirements for authorization of nanoformulations. Future trends on these issues, of pressing importance within the context of the current European pesticide legislative framework, are also discussed. Standard protocols to make high-quality and well-described datasets for the series of related but differently sized nanoparticles/nanopesticides are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of solvation enthalpy of gaseous organic compounds in propanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golmohammadi, Hassan; Dashtbozorgi, Zahra

2016-09-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a novel way for developing quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models to predict the gas-to-propanol solvation enthalpy (Δ H solv) of 95 organic compounds. Different kinds of descriptors were calculated for each compound using the Dragon software package. The variable selection technique of replacement method (RM) was employed to select the optimal subset of solute descriptors. Our investigation reveals that the dependence of physical chemistry properties of solution on solvation enthalpy is nonlinear and that the RM method is unable to model the solvation enthalpy accurately. The results established that the calculated Δ H solv values by SVM were in good agreement with the experimental ones, and the performances of the SVM models were superior to those obtained by RM model.

Quantitative property-structural relation modeling on polymeric dielectric materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ke

Nowadays, polymeric materials have attracted more and more attention in dielectric applications. But searching for a material with desired properties is still largely based on trial and error. To facilitate the development of new polymeric materials, heuristic models built using the Quantitative Structure Property Relationships (QSPR) techniques can provide reliable "working solutions". In this thesis, the application of QSPR on polymeric materials is studied from two angles: descriptors and algorithms. A novel set of descriptors, called infinite chain descriptors (ICD), are developed to encode the chemical features of pure polymers. ICD is designed to eliminate the uncertainty of polymer conformations and inconsistency of molecular representation of polymers. Models for the dielectric constant, band gap, dielectric loss tangent and glass transition temperatures of organic polymers are built with high prediction accuracy. Two new algorithms, the physics-enlightened learning method (PELM) and multi-mechanism detection, are designed to deal with two typical challenges in material QSPR. PELM is a meta-algorithm that utilizes the classic physical theory as guidance to construct the candidate learning function. It shows better out-of-domain prediction accuracy compared to the classic machine learning algorithm (support vector machine). Multi-mechanism detection is built based on a cluster-weighted mixing model similar to a Gaussian mixture model. The idea is to separate the data into subsets where each subset can be modeled by a much simpler model. The case study on glass transition temperature shows that this method can provide better overall prediction accuracy even though less data is available for each subset model. In addition, the techniques developed in this work are also applied to polymer nanocomposites (PNC). PNC are new materials with outstanding dielectric properties. As a key factor in determining the dispersion state of nanoparticles in the polymer matrix

The application of feature selection to the development of Gaussian process models for percutaneous absorption.

PubMed

Lam, Lun Tak; Sun, Yi; Davey, Neil; Adams, Rod; Prapopoulou, Maria; Brown, Marc B; Moss, Gary P

2010-06-01

The aim was to employ Gaussian processes to assess mathematically the nature of a skin permeability dataset and to employ these methods, particularly feature selection, to determine the key physicochemical descriptors which exert the most significant influence on percutaneous absorption, and to compare such models with established existing models. Gaussian processes, including automatic relevance detection (GPRARD) methods, were employed to develop models of percutaneous absorption that identified key physicochemical descriptors of percutaneous absorption. Using MatLab software, the statistical performance of these models was compared with single linear networks (SLN) and quantitative structure-permeability relationships (QSPRs). Feature selection methods were used to examine in more detail the physicochemical parameters used in this study. A range of statistical measures to determine model quality were used. The inherently nonlinear nature of the skin data set was confirmed. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) methods yielded predictive models that offered statistically significant improvements over SLN and QSPR models with regard to predictivity (where the rank order was: GPR > SLN > QSPR). Feature selection analysis determined that the best GPR models were those that contained log P, melting point and the number of hydrogen bond donor groups as significant descriptors. Further statistical analysis also found that great synergy existed between certain parameters. It suggested that a number of the descriptors employed were effectively interchangeable, thus questioning the use of models where discrete variables are output, usually in the form of an equation. The use of a nonlinear GPR method produced models with significantly improved predictivity, compared with SLN or QSPR models. Feature selection methods were able to provide important mechanistic information. However, it was also shown that significant synergy existed between certain parameters, and as such it

The application and limitations of mathematical modelling in the prediction of permeability across mammalian skin and polydimethylsiloxane membranes.

PubMed

Moss, Gary P; Sun, Yi; Wilkinson, Simon C; Davey, Neil; Adams, Rod; Martin, Gary P; Prapopopolou, M; Brown, Marc B

2011-11-01

Predicting the rate of percutaneous absorption of a drug is an important issue with the increasing use of the skin as a means of moderating and controlling drug delivery. One key feature of this problem domain is that human skin permeability (as K(p)) has been shown to be inherently non-linear when mathematically related to the physicochemical parameters of penetrants. As such, the aims of this study were to apply and evaluate Gaussian process (GP) regression methods to datasets for membranes other than human skin, and to explore how the nature of the dataset may influence its analysis. Permeability data for absorption across rodent and pig skin, and artificial membranes (polydimethylsiloxane, PDMS, i.e. Silastic) membranes was collected from the literature. Two quantitative structure-permeability relationship (QSPR) models were used to compare with the GP models. Further performance metrics were computed in terms of all predictions, and a range of covariance functions were examined: the squared exponential (SE), neural network (NNone) and rational quadratic (QR) covariance functions, along with two simple cases of Matern covariance function (Matern3 and Matern5) where the polynomial order is set to 1 and 2, respectively. As measures of performance, the correlation coefficient (CORR), negative log estimated predictive density (NLL, or negative log loss) and mean squared error (MSE) were employed. The results demonstrated that GP models with different covariance functions outperform QSPR models for human, pig and rodent datasets. For the artificial membranes, GPs perform better in one instance, and give similar results in other experiments (where different covariance parameters produce similar results). In some cases, the GP predictions for some of the artificial membrane dataset are poorly correlated, suggesting that the physicochemical parameters employed in this study might not be appropriate for developing models that represent this membrane. While the results

Synthesis, Spectra, and Theoretical Investigations of 1,3,5-Triazines Compounds as Ultraviolet Rays Absorber Based on Time-Dependent Density Functional Calculations and three-Dimensional Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship.

PubMed

Wang, Xueding; Xu, Yilian; Yang, Lu; Lu, Xiang; Zou, Hao; Yang, Weiqing; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Li, Zicheng; Ma, Menglin

2018-03-01

A series of 1,3,5-triazines were synthesized and their UV absorption properties were tested. The computational chemistry methods were used to construct quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR), which was used to computer aided design of new 1,3,5-triazines ultraviolet rays absorber compounds. The experimental UV absorption data are in good agreement with those predicted data using the Time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) [B3LYP/6-311 + G(d,p)]. A suitable forecasting model (R > 0.8, P < 0.0001) was revealed. Predictive three-dimensional quantitative structure-property relationship (3D-QSPR) model was established using multifit molecular alignment rule of Sybyl program, which conclusion is consistent with the TD-DFT calculation. The exceptional photostability mechanism of such ultraviolet rays absorber compounds was studied and confirmed as principally banked upon their ability to undergo excited-state deactivation via an ultrafast excited-state proton transfer (ESIPT). The intramolecular hydrogen bond (IMHB) of 1,3,5-triazines compounds is the basis for the excited state proton transfer, which was explored by IR spectroscopy, UV spectra, structural and energetic aspects of different conformers and frontier molecular orbitals analysis.

Bond-based linear indices of the non-stochastic and stochastic edge-adjacency matrix. 1. Theory and modeling of ChemPhys properties of organic molecules.

PubMed

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Martínez-Albelo, Eugenio R; Casañola-Martín, Gerardo M; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Echevería-Díaz, Yunaimy; Zaldivar, Vicente Romero; Tygat, Jan; Borges, José E Rodriguez; García-Domenech, Ramón; Torrens, Francisco; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo

2010-11-01

Novel bond-level molecular descriptors are proposed, based on linear maps similar to the ones defined in algebra theory. The kth edge-adjacency matrix (E(k)) denotes the matrix of bond linear indices (non-stochastic) with regard to canonical basis set. The kth stochastic edge-adjacency matrix, ES(k), is here proposed as a new molecular representation easily calculated from E(k). Then, the kth stochastic bond linear indices are calculated using ES(k) as operators of linear transformations. In both cases, the bond-type formalism is developed. The kth non-stochastic and stochastic total linear indices are calculated by adding the kth non-stochastic and stochastic bond linear indices, respectively, of all bonds in molecule. First, the new bond-based molecular descriptors (MDs) are tested for suitability, for the QSPRs, by analyzing regressions of novel indices for selected physicochemical properties of octane isomers (first round). General performance of the new descriptors in this QSPR studies is evaluated with regard to the well-known sets of 2D/3D MDs. From the analysis, we can conclude that the non-stochastic and stochastic bond-based linear indices have an overall good modeling capability proving their usefulness in QSPR studies. Later, the novel bond-level MDs are also used for the description and prediction of the boiling point of 28 alkyl-alcohols (second round), and to the modeling of the specific rate constant (log k), partition coefficient (log P), as well as the antibacterial activity of 34 derivatives of 2-furylethylenes (third round). The comparison with other approaches (edge- and vertices-based connectivity indices, total and local spectral moments, and quantum chemical descriptors as well as E-state/biomolecular encounter parameters) exposes a good behavior of our method in this QSPR studies. Finally, the approach described in this study appears to be a very promising structural invariant, useful not only for QSPR studies but also for similarity

Effect analysis of quantum chemical descriptors and substituent characteristics on Henry's law constants of polybrominated diphenyl ethers at different temperatures.

PubMed

Long, Jiang; Youli, Qiu; Yu, Li

2017-11-01

Twelve substituent descriptors, 17 quantum chemical descriptors and 1/T were selected to establish a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model of Henry's law constants for 7 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) at five different temperatures. Then, the lgH of 202 congeners at different temperatures were predicted. The variation rule and regulating mechanism of lgH was studied from the perspectives of both quantum chemical descriptors and substituent characteristics. The R 2 for modeling and testing sets of the final QSPR model are 0.977 and 0.979, respectively, thus indicating good fitness and predictive ability for Henry' law constants of PBDEs at different temperatures. The favorable hydrogen binding sites are the 5,5',6,6'-positions for high substituent congeners and the O atom of the ether bond for low substituent congeners, which affects the interaction between PBDEs and water molecules. lgH is negatively and linearly correlated with 1/T, and the variation trends of lgH with temperature are primarily regulated by individual substituent characteristics, wherein: the more substituents involved, the smaller the lgH. The significant sequence for the main effect of substituent positions is para>meta>ortho, where the ortho-positions are mainly involved in second-order interaction effect (64.01%). Having two substituents in the same ring also provides a significant effect, with 81.36% of second-order interaction effects, particularly where there is an adjacent distribution (55.02%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational modeling of in vitro biological responses on polymethacrylate surfaces

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Jayeeta; Lewitus, Dan Y; Chandra, Prafulla; Joy, Abraham; Bushman, Jared; Knight, Doyle; Kohn, Joachim

2011-01-01

The objective of this research was to examine the capabilities of QSPR (Quantitative Structure Property Relationship) modeling to predict specific biological responses (fibrinogen adsorption, cell attachment and cell proliferation index) on thin films of different polymethacrylates. Using 33 commercially available monomers it is theoretically possible to construct a library of over 40,000 distinct polymer compositions. A subset of these polymers were synthesized and solvent cast surfaces were prepared in 96 well plates for the measurement of fibrinogen adsorption. NIH 3T3 cell attachment and proliferation index were measured on spin coated thin films of these polymers. Based on the experimental results of these polymers, separate models were built for homo-, co-, and terpolymers in the library with good correlation between experiment and predicted values. The ability to predict biological responses by simple QSPR models for large numbers of polymers has important implications in designing biomaterials for specific biological or medical applications. PMID:21779132

Uniting Cheminformatics and Chemical Theory To Predict the Intrinsic Aqueous Solubility of Crystalline Druglike Molecules

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We present four models of solution free-energy prediction for druglike molecules utilizing cheminformatics descriptors and theoretically calculated thermodynamic values. We make predictions of solution free energy using physics-based theory alone and using machine learning/quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models. We also develop machine learning models where the theoretical energies and cheminformatics descriptors are used as combined input. These models are used to predict solvation free energy. While direct theoretical calculation does not give accurate results in this approach, machine learning is able to give predictions with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ∼1.1 log S units in a 10-fold cross-validation for our Drug-Like-Solubility-100 (DLS-100) dataset of 100 druglike molecules. We find that a model built using energy terms from our theoretical methodology as descriptors is marginally less predictive than one built on Chemistry Development Kit (CDK) descriptors. Combining both sets of descriptors allows a further but very modest improvement in the predictions. However, in some cases, this is a statistically significant enhancement. These results suggest that there is little complementarity between the chemical information provided by these two sets of descriptors, despite their different sources and methods of calculation. Our machine learning models are also able to predict the well-known Solubility Challenge dataset with an RMSE value of 0.9–1.0 log S units. PMID:24564264

Quantitative structure-property relationship modeling of remote liposome loading of drugs.

PubMed

Cern, Ahuva; Golbraikh, Alexander; Sedykh, Aleck; Tropsha, Alexander; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Goldblum, Amiram

2012-06-10

Remote loading of liposomes by trans-membrane gradients is used to achieve therapeutically efficacious intra-liposome concentrations of drugs. We have developed Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models of remote liposome loading for a data set including 60 drugs studied in 366 loading experiments internally or elsewhere. Both experimental conditions and computed chemical descriptors were employed as independent variables to predict the initial drug/lipid ratio (D/L) required to achieve high loading efficiency. Both binary (to distinguish high vs. low initial D/L) and continuous (to predict real D/L values) models were generated using advanced machine learning approaches and 5-fold external validation. The external prediction accuracy for binary models was as high as 91-96%; for continuous models the mean coefficient R(2) for regression between predicted versus observed values was 0.76-0.79. We conclude that QSPR models can be used to identify candidate drugs expected to have high remote loading capacity while simultaneously optimizing the design of formulation experiments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Structure – Property Relationship Modeling of Remote Liposome Loading Of Drugs

PubMed Central

Cern, Ahuva; Golbraikh, Alexander; Sedykh, Aleck; Tropsha, Alexander; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Goldblum, Amiram

2012-01-01

Remote loading of liposomes by trans-membrane gradients is used to achieve therapeutically efficacious intra-liposome concentrations of drugs. We have developed Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models of remote liposome loading for a dataset including 60 drugs studied in 366 loading experiments internally or elsewhere. Both experimental conditions and computed chemical descriptors were employed as independent variables to predict the initial drug/lipid ratio (D/L) required to achieve high loading efficiency. Both binary (to distinguish high vs. low initial D/L) and continuous (to predict real D/L values) models were generated using advanced machine learning approaches and five-fold external validation. The external prediction accuracy for binary models was as high as 91–96%; for continuous models the mean coefficient R2 for regression between predicted versus observed values was 0.76–0.79. We conclude that QSPR models can be used to identify candidate drugs expected to have high remote loading capacity while simultaneously optimizing the design of formulation experiments. PMID:22154932

Aqueous solubility, effects of salts on aqueous solubility, and partitioning behavior of hexafluorobenzene: experimental results and COSMO-RS predictions.

PubMed

Schröder, Bernd; Freire, Mara G; Varanda, Fatima R; Marrucho, Isabel M; Santos, Luís M N B F; Coutinho, João A P

2011-07-01

The aqueous solubility of hexafluorobenzene has been determined, at 298.15K, using a shake-flask method with a spectrophotometric quantification technique. Furthermore, the solubility of hexafluorobenzene in saline aqueous solutions, at distinct salt concentrations, has been measured. Both salting-in and salting-out effects were observed and found to be dependent on the nature of the cationic/anionic composition of the salt. COSMO-RS, the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents, has been used to predict the corresponding aqueous solubilities at conditions similar to those used experimentally. The prediction results showed that the COSMO-RS approach is suitable for the prediction of salting-in/-out effects. The salting-in/-out phenomena have been rationalized with the support of COSMO-RS σ-profiles. The prediction potential of COSMO-RS regarding aqueous solubilities and octanol-water partition coefficients has been compared with typically used QSPR-based methods. Up to now, the absence of accurate solubility data for hexafluorobenzene hampered the calculation of the respective partition coefficients. Combining available accurate vapor pressure data with the experimentally determined water solubility, a novel air-water partition coefficient has been derived. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Determination and prediction for vapor pressures of organophosphate flame retardants by gas chromatography].

PubMed

Wang, Qingzhi; Zhao, Hongxia; Wang, Yan; Xie, Qing; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

2017-09-08

Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) are ubiquitous in the environment. To better understand and predict their environmental transport and fate, well-defined physicochemical properties are required. Vapor pressures ( P ) of 14 OPFRs were estimated as a function of temperature ( T ) by gas chromatography (GC), while 1,1,1-trichioro-2,2-bis (4-chlorophenyl) ethane ( p,p '-DDT) was acted as a reference substance. Their log P GC values and internal energies of phase transfer (△ vap H ) ranged from -6.17 to -1.25 and 74.1 kJ/mol to 122 kJ/mol, respectively. Substitution pattern and molar volume ( V M ) were found to be capable of influencing log P GC values of the OPFRs. The halogenated alkyl-OPFRs had lower log P GC values than aryl-or alkyl-OPFRs. The bigger the molar volume was, the smaller the log P GC value was. In addition, a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model of log P GC versus different relative retention times (RRTs) was developed with a high cross-validated value ( Q 2 cum ) of 0.946, indicating a good predictive ability and stability. Therefore, the log P GC values of the OPFRs without standard substance can be predicted by using their RRTs on different GC columns.

QSPR studies on the photoinduced-fluorescence behaviour of pharmaceuticals and pesticides.

PubMed

López-Malo, D; Bueso-Bordils, J I; Duart, M J; Alemán-López, P A; Martín-Algarra, R V; Antón-Fos, G M; Lahuerta-Zamora, L; Martínez-Calatayud, J

2017-07-01

Fluorimetric analysis is still a growing line of research in the determination of a wide range of organic compounds, including pharmaceuticals and pesticides, which makes necessary the development of new strategies aimed at improving the performance of fluorescence determinations as well as the sensitivity and, especially, the selectivity of the newly developed analytical methods. In this paper are presented applications of a useful and growing tool suitable for fostering and improving research in the analytical field. Experimental screening, molecular connectivity and discriminant analysis are applied to organic compounds to predict their fluorescent behaviour after their photodegradation by UV irradiation in a continuous flow manifold (multicommutation flow assembly). The screening was based on online fluorimetric measurement and comprised pre-selected compounds with different molecular structures (pharmaceuticals and some pesticides with known 'native' fluorescent behaviour) to study their changes in fluorescent behaviour after UV irradiation. Theoretical predictions agree with the results from the experimental screening and could be used to develop selective analytical methods, as well as helping to reduce the need for expensive, time-consuming and trial-and-error screening procedures.

Applicability domains for classification problems: benchmarking of distance to models for AMES mutagenicity set

EPA Science Inventory

For QSAR and QSPR modeling of biological and physicochemical properties, estimating the accuracy of predictions is a critical problem. The “distance to model” (DM) can be defined as a metric that defines the similarity between the training set molecules and the test set compound ...

Linear indices of the "molecular pseudograph's atom adjacency matrix": definition, significance-interpretation, and application to QSAR analysis of flavone derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani

2004-01-01

This report describes a new set of molecular descriptors of relevance to QSAR/QSPR studies and drug design, atom linear indices fk(xi). These atomic level chemical descriptors are based on the calculation of linear maps on Rn[fk(xi): Rn--> Rn] in canonical basis. In this context, the kth power of the molecular pseudograph's atom adjacency matrix [Mk(G)] denotes the matrix of fk(xi) with respect to the canonical basis. In addition, a local-fragment (atom-type) formalism was developed. The kth atom-type linear indices are calculated by summing the kth atom linear indices of all atoms of the same atom type in the molecules. Moreover, total (whole-molecule) linear indices are also proposed. This descriptor is a linear functional (linear form) on Rn. That is, the kth total linear indices is a linear map from Rn to the scalar R[ fk(x): Rn --> R]. Thus, the kth total linear indices are calculated by summing the atom linear indices of all atoms in the molecule. The features of the kth total and local linear indices are illustrated by examples of various types of molecular structures, including chain-lengthening, branching, heteroatoms-content, and multiple bonds. Additionally, the linear independence of the local linear indices to other 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D molecular descriptors is demonstrated by using principal component analysis for 42 very heterogeneous molecules. Much redundancy and overlapping was found among total linear indices and most of the other structural indices presently in use in the QSPR/QSAR practice. On the contrary, the information carried by atom-type linear indices was strikingly different from that codified in most of the 229 0D-3D molecular descriptors used in this study. It is concluded that the local linear indices are an independent indices containing important structural information to be used in QSPR/QSAR and drug design studies. In this sense, atom, atom-type, and total linear indices were used for the prediction of pIC50 values for the cleavage

Prediction Analysis for Measles Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, Ayako; Ohtomo, Norio; Tanaka, Yukio; Sawamura, Sadashi; Olsen, Lars Folke; Kobayashi, Nobumichi

2003-12-01

A newly devised procedure of prediction analysis, which is a linearized version of the nonlinear least squares method combined with the maximum entropy spectral analysis method, was proposed. This method was applied to time series data of measles case notification in several communities in the UK, USA and Denmark. The dominant spectral lines observed in each power spectral density (PSD) can be safely assigned as fundamental periods. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated using these fundamental periods can essentially reproduce the underlying variation of the measles data. An extension of the LSF curve can be used to predict measles case notification quantitatively. Some discussions including a predictability of chaotic time series are presented.

OPERA models for predicting physicochemical properties and environmental fate endpoints.

PubMed

Mansouri, Kamel; Grulke, Chris M; Judson, Richard S; Williams, Antony J

2018-03-08

The collection of chemical structure information and associated experimental data for quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) modeling is facilitated by an increasing number of public databases containing large amounts of useful data. However, the performance of QSAR models highly depends on the quality of the data and modeling methodology used. This study aims to develop robust QSAR/QSPR models for chemical properties of environmental interest that can be used for regulatory purposes. This study primarily uses data from the publicly available PHYSPROP database consisting of a set of 13 common physicochemical and environmental fate properties. These datasets have undergone extensive curation using an automated workflow to select only high-quality data, and the chemical structures were standardized prior to calculation of the molecular descriptors. The modeling procedure was developed based on the five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) principles for QSAR models. A weighted k-nearest neighbor approach was adopted using a minimum number of required descriptors calculated using PaDEL, an open-source software. The genetic algorithms selected only the most pertinent and mechanistically interpretable descriptors (2-15, with an average of 11 descriptors). The sizes of the modeled datasets varied from 150 chemicals for biodegradability half-life to 14,050 chemicals for logP, with an average of 3222 chemicals across all endpoints. The optimal models were built on randomly selected training sets (75%) and validated using fivefold cross-validation (CV) and test sets (25%). The CV Q 2 of the models varied from 0.72 to 0.95, with an average of 0.86 and an R 2 test value from 0.71 to 0.96, with an average of 0.82. Modeling and performance details are described in QSAR model reporting format and were validated by the European Commission's Joint Research Center to be OECD compliant. All models are freely available as an open

Determining the Effect of pH on the Partitioning of Neutral, Cationic and Anionic Chemicals to Artificial Sebum: New Physicochemical Insight and QSPR Model.

PubMed

Yang, Senpei; Li, Lingyi; Chen, Tao; Han, Lujia; Lian, Guoping

2018-05-14

Sebum is an important shunt pathway for transdermal permeation and targeted delivery, but there have been limited studies on its permeation properties. Here we report a measurement and modelling study of solute partition to artificial sebum. Equilibrium experiments were carried out for the sebum-water partition coefficients of 23 neutral, cationic and anionic compounds at different pH. Sebum-water partition coefficients not only depend on the hydrophobicity of the chemical but also on pH. As pH increases from 4.2 to 7.4, the partition of cationic chemicals to sebum increased rapidly. This appears to be due to increased electrostatic attraction between the cationic chemical and the fatty acids in sebum. Whereas for anionic chemicals, their sebum partition coefficients are negligibly small, which might result from their electrostatic repulsion to fatty acids. Increase in pH also resulted in a slight decrease of sebum partition of neutral chemicals. Based on the observed pH impact on the sebum-water partition of neutral, cationic and anionic compounds, a new quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model has been proposed. This mathematical model considers the hydrophobic interaction and electrostatic interaction as the main mechanisms for the partition of neutral, cationic and anionic chemicals to sebum.

A review of quantitative structure-property relationships for the fate of ionizable organic chemicals in water matrices and identification of knowledge gaps.

PubMed

Nolte, Tom M; Ragas, Ad M J

2017-03-22

Many organic chemicals are ionizable by nature. After use and release into the environment, various fate processes determine their concentrations, and hence exposure to aquatic organisms. In the absence of suitable data, such fate processes can be estimated using Quantitative Structure-Property Relationships (QSPRs). In this review we compiled available QSPRs from the open literature and assessed their applicability towards ionizable organic chemicals. Using quantitative and qualitative criteria we selected the 'best' QSPRs for sorption, (a)biotic degradation, and bioconcentration. The results indicate that many suitable QSPRs exist, but some critical knowledge gaps remain. Specifically, future focus should be directed towards the development of QSPR models for biodegradation in wastewater and sediment systems, direct photolysis and reaction with singlet oxygen, as well as additional reactive intermediates. Adequate QSPRs for bioconcentration in fish exist, but more accurate assessments can be achieved using pharmacologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models. No adequate QSPRs exist for bioconcentration in non-fish species. Due to the high variability of chemical and biological species as well as environmental conditions in QSPR datasets, accurate predictions for specific systems and inter-dataset conversions are problematic, for which standardization is needed. For all QSPR endpoints, additional data requirements involve supplementing the current chemical space covered and accurately characterizing the test systems used.

Characterization and Prediction of Chemical Functions and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Assessing exposures from the thousands of chemicals in commerce requires quantitative information on the chemical constituents of consumer products. Unfortunately, gaps in available composition data prevent assessment of exposure to chemicals in many products. Here we propose filling these gaps via consideration of chemical functional role. We obtained function information for thousands of chemicals from public sources and used a clustering algorithm to assign chemicals into 35 harmonized function categories (e.g., plasticizers, antimicrobials, solvents). We combined these functions with weight fraction data for 4115 personal care products (PCPs) to characterize the composition of 66 different product categories (e.g., shampoos). We analyzed the combined weight fraction/function dataset using machine learning techniques to develop quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) classifier models for 22 functions and for weight fraction, based on chemical-specific descriptors (including chemical properties). We applied these classifier models to a library of 10196 data-poor chemicals. Our predictions of chemical function and composition will inform exposure-based screening of chemicals in PCPs for combination with hazard data in risk-based evaluation frameworks. As new information becomes available, this approach can be applied to other classes of products and the chemicals they contain in order to provide essential consumer product data for use in exposure-b

Chemical graphs, molecular matrices and topological indices in chemoinformatics and quantitative structure-activity relationships.

PubMed

Ivanciuc, Ovidiu

2013-06-01

Chemical and molecular graphs have fundamental applications in chemoinformatics, quantitative structureproperty relationships (QSPR), quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR), virtual screening of chemical libraries, and computational drug design. Chemoinformatics applications of graphs include chemical structure representation and coding, database search and retrieval, and physicochemical property prediction. QSPR, QSAR and virtual screening are based on the structure-property principle, which states that the physicochemical and biological properties of chemical compounds can be predicted from their chemical structure. Such structure-property correlations are usually developed from topological indices and fingerprints computed from the molecular graph and from molecular descriptors computed from the three-dimensional chemical structure. We present here a selection of the most important graph descriptors and topological indices, including molecular matrices, graph spectra, spectral moments, graph polynomials, and vertex topological indices. These graph descriptors are used to define several topological indices based on molecular connectivity, graph distance, reciprocal distance, distance-degree, distance-valency, spectra, polynomials, and information theory concepts. The molecular descriptors and topological indices can be developed with a more general approach, based on molecular graph operators, which define a family of graph indices related by a common formula. Graph descriptors and topological indices for molecules containing heteroatoms and multiple bonds are computed with weighting schemes based on atomic properties, such as the atomic number, covalent radius, or electronegativity. The correlation in QSPR and QSAR models can be improved by optimizing some parameters in the formula of topological indices, as demonstrated for structural descriptors based on atomic connectivity and graph distance.

DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

2011-12-01

In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VDss) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VDss and CL is

DemQSAR: predicting human volume of distribution and clearance of drugs.

PubMed

Demir-Kavuk, Ozgur; Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Knapp, Ernst-Walter

2011-12-01

In silico methods characterizing molecular compounds with respect to pharmacologically relevant properties can accelerate the identification of new drugs and reduce their development costs. Quantitative structure-activity/-property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) correlate structure and physico-chemical properties of molecular compounds with a specific functional activity/property under study. Typically a large number of molecular features are generated for the compounds. In many cases the number of generated features exceeds the number of molecular compounds with known property values that are available for learning. Machine learning methods tend to overfit the training data in such situations, i.e. the method adjusts to very specific features of the training data, which are not characteristic for the considered property. This problem can be alleviated by diminishing the influence of unimportant, redundant or even misleading features. A better strategy is to eliminate such features completely. Ideally, a molecular property can be described by a small number of features that are chemically interpretable. The purpose of the present contribution is to provide a predictive modeling approach, which combines feature generation, feature selection, model building and control of overtraining into a single application called DemQSAR. DemQSAR is used to predict human volume of distribution (VD(ss)) and human clearance (CL). To control overtraining, quadratic and linear regularization terms were employed. A recursive feature selection approach is used to reduce the number of descriptors. The prediction performance is as good as the best predictions reported in the recent literature. The example presented here demonstrates that DemQSAR can generate a model that uses very few features while maintaining high predictive power. A standalone DemQSAR Java application for model building of any user defined property as well as a web interface for the prediction of human VD(ss) and CL is

A quantum chemical study of molecular properties and QSPR modeling of oximes, amidoximes and hydroxamic acids with nucleophilic activity against toxic organophosphorus agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alencar Filho, Edilson B.; Santos, Aline A.; Oliveira, Boaz G.

2017-04-01

The proposal of this work includes the use of quantum chemical methods and cheminformatics strategies in order to understand the structural profile and reactivity of α-nucleophiles compounds such as oximes, amidoximes and hydroxamic acids, related to hydrolysis rate of organophosphates. Theoretical conformational study of 41 compounds were carried out through the PM3 semiempirical Hamiltonian, followed by the geometry optimization at the B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p) level of theory, complemented by Polarized Continuum Model (PCM) to simulate the aqueous environment. In line with the experimental hypothesis about hydrolytic power, the strength of the Intramolecular Hydrogen Bonds (IHBs) at light of the Bader's Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) is related to the preferential conformations of α-nucleophiles. A set of E-Dragon descriptors (1,666) were submitted to a variable selection through Ordered Predictor Selection (OPS) algorithm. Five descriptors, including atomic charges obtained from the Natural Bond Orbitals (NBO) protocol jointly with a fragment index associated to the presence/absence of IHBs, provided a Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) model via Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This model showed good validation parameters (R2 = 0.80, Qloo2 = 0.67 and Qext2 = 0.81) and allowed the identification of significant physicochemical features on the molecular scaffold in order to design compounds potentially more active against organophosphorus poisoning.

Visual analytics in cheminformatics: user-supervised descriptor selection for QSAR methods.

PubMed

Martínez, María Jimena; Ponzoni, Ignacio; Díaz, Mónica F; Vazquez, Gustavo E; Soto, Axel J

2015-01-01

The design of QSAR/QSPR models is a challenging problem, where the selection of the most relevant descriptors constitutes a key step of the process. Several feature selection methods that address this step are concentrated on statistical associations among descriptors and target properties, whereas the chemical knowledge is left out of the analysis. For this reason, the interpretability and generality of the QSAR/QSPR models obtained by these feature selection methods are drastically affected. Therefore, an approach for integrating domain expert's knowledge in the selection process is needed for increase the confidence in the final set of descriptors. In this paper a software tool, which we named Visual and Interactive DEscriptor ANalysis (VIDEAN), that combines statistical methods with interactive visualizations for choosing a set of descriptors for predicting a target property is proposed. Domain expertise can be added to the feature selection process by means of an interactive visual exploration of data, and aided by statistical tools and metrics based on information theory. Coordinated visual representations are presented for capturing different relationships and interactions among descriptors, target properties and candidate subsets of descriptors. The competencies of the proposed software were assessed through different scenarios. These scenarios reveal how an expert can use this tool to choose one subset of descriptors from a group of candidate subsets or how to modify existing descriptor subsets and even incorporate new descriptors according to his or her own knowledge of the target property. The reported experiences showed the suitability of our software for selecting sets of descriptors with low cardinality, high interpretability, low redundancy and high statistical performance in a visual exploratory way. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that the resulting tool allows the integration of a chemist's expertise in the descriptor selection process with

Quantitative structure--property relationships for enhancing predictions of synthetic organic chemical removal from drinking water by granular activated carbon.

PubMed

Magnuson, Matthew L; Speth, Thomas F

2005-10-01

Granular activated carbon is a frequently explored technology for removing synthetic organic contaminants from drinking water sources. The success of this technology relies on a number of factors based not only on the adsorptive properties of the contaminant but also on properties of the water itself, notably the presence of substances in the water which compete for adsorption sites. Because it is impractical to perform field-scale evaluations for all possible contaminants, the pore surface diffusion model (PSDM) has been developed and used to predict activated carbon column performance using single-solute isotherm data as inputs. Many assumptions are built into this model to account for kinetics of adsorption and competition for adsorption sites. This work further evaluates and expands this model, through the use of quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs) to predict the effect of natural organic matter fouling on activated carbon adsorption of specific contaminants. The QSPRs developed are based on a combination of calculated topographical indices and quantum chemical parameters. The QSPRs were evaluated in terms of their statistical predictive ability,the physical significance of the descriptors, and by comparison with field data. The QSPR-enhanced PSDM was judged to give results better than what could previously be obtained.

QSAR modeling of acute toxicity on mammals caused by aromatic compounds: the case study using oral LD50 for rats.

PubMed

Rasulev, Bakhtiyor; Kusić, Hrvoje; Leszczynska, Danuta; Leszczynski, Jerzy; Koprivanac, Natalija

2010-05-01

The goal of the study was to predict toxicity in vivo caused by aromatic compounds structured with a single benzene ring and the presence or absence of different substituent groups such as hydroxyl-, nitro-, amino-, methyl-, methoxy-, etc., by using QSAR/QSPR tools. A Genetic Algorithm and multiple regression analysis were applied to select the descriptors and to generate the correlation models. The most predictive model is shown to be the 3-variable model which also has a good ratio of the number of descriptors and their predictive ability to avoid overfitting. The main contributions to the toxicity were shown to be the polarizability weighted MATS2p and the number of certain groups C-026 descriptors. The GA-MLRA approach showed good results in this study, which allows the building of a simple, interpretable and transparent model that can be used for future studies of predicting toxicity of organic compounds to mammals.

Physicochemical properties/descriptors governing the solubility and partitioning of chemicals in water-solvent-gas systems. Part 1. Partitioning between octanol and air.

PubMed

Raevsky, O A; Grigor'ev, V J; Raevskaja, O E; Schaper, K-J

2006-06-01

QSPR analyses of a data set containing experimental partition coefficients in the three systems octanol-water, water-gas, and octanol-gas for 98 chemicals have shown that it is possible to calculate any partition coefficient in the system 'gas phase/octanol/water' by three different approaches: (1) from experimental partition coefficients obtained in the corresponding two other subsystems. However, in many cases these data may not be available. Therefore, a solution may be approached (2), a traditional QSPR analysis based on e.g. HYBOT descriptors (hydrogen bond acceptor and donor factors, SigmaCa and SigmaCd, together with polarisability alpha, a steric bulk effect descriptor) and supplemented with substructural indicator variables. (3) A very promising approach which is a combination of the similarity concept and QSPR based on HYBOT descriptors. In this approach observed partition coefficients of structurally nearest neighbours of a compound-of-interest are used. In addition, contributions arising from differences in alpha, SigmaCa, and SigmaCd values between the compound-of-interest and its nearest neighbour(s), respectively, are considered. In this investigation highly significant relationships were obtained by approaches (1) and (3) for the octanol/gas phase partition coefficient (log Log).

Redox Polypharmacology as an Emerging Strategy to Combat Malarial Parasites.

PubMed

Sidorov, Pavel; Desta, Israel; Chessé, Matthieu; Horvath, Dragos; Marcou, Gilles; Varnek, Alexandre; Davioud-Charvet, Elisabeth; Elhabiri, Mourad

2016-06-20

3-Benzylmenadiones are potent antimalarial agents that are thought to act through their 3-benzoylmenadione metabolites as redox cyclers of two essential targets: the NADPH-dependent glutathione reductases (GRs) of Plasmodium-parasitized erythrocytes and methemoglobin. Their physicochemical properties were characterized in a coupled assay using both targets and modeled with QSPR predictive tools built in house. The substitution pattern of the west/east aromatic parts that controls the oxidant character of the electrophore was highlighted and accurately predicted by QSPR models. The effects centered on the benz(o)yl chain, induced by drug bioactivation, markedly influenced the oxidant character of the reduced species through a large anodic shift of the redox potentials that correlated with the redox cycling of both targets in the coupled assay. Our approach demonstrates that the antimalarial activity of 3-benz(o)ylmenadiones results from a subtle interplay between bioactivation, fine-tuned redox properties, and interactions with crucial targets of P. falciparum. Plasmodione and its analogues give emphasis to redox polypharmacology, which constitutes an innovative approach to antimalarial therapy. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Analysis of uncertainties in turbine metal temperature predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepka, F. S.

1980-01-01

An analysis was conducted to examine the extent to which various factors influence the accuracy of analytically predicting turbine blade metal temperatures and to determine the uncertainties in these predictions for several accuracies of the influence factors. The advanced turbofan engine gas conditions of 1700 K and 40 atmospheres were considered along with those of a highly instrumented high temperature turbine test rig and a low temperature turbine rig that simulated the engine conditions. The analysis showed that the uncertainty in analytically predicting local blade temperature was as much as 98 K, or 7.6 percent of the metal absolute temperature, with current knowledge of the influence factors. The expected reductions in uncertainties in the influence factors with additional knowledge and tests should reduce the uncertainty in predicting blade metal temperature to 28 K, or 2.1 percent of the metal absolute temperature.

Chemically Aware Model Builder (camb): an R package for property and bioactivity modelling of small molecules.

PubMed

Murrell, Daniel S; Cortes-Ciriano, Isidro; van Westen, Gerard J P; Stott, Ian P; Bender, Andreas; Malliavin, Thérèse E; Glen, Robert C

2015-01-01

In silico predictive models have proved to be valuable for the optimisation of compound potency, selectivity and safety profiles in the drug discovery process. camb is an R package that provides an environment for the rapid generation of quantitative Structure-Property and Structure-Activity models for small molecules (including QSAR, QSPR, QSAM, PCM) and is aimed at both advanced and beginner R users. camb's capabilities include the standardisation of chemical structure representation, computation of 905 one-dimensional and 14 fingerprint type descriptors for small molecules, 8 types of amino acid descriptors, 13 whole protein sequence descriptors, filtering methods for feature selection, generation of predictive models (using an interface to the R package caret), as well as techniques to create model ensembles using techniques from the R package caretEnsemble). Results can be visualised through high-quality, customisable plots (R package ggplot2). Overall, camb constitutes an open-source framework to perform the following steps: (1) compound standardisation, (2) molecular and protein descriptor calculation, (3) descriptor pre-processing and model training, visualisation and validation, and (4) bioactivity/property prediction for new molecules. camb aims to speed model generation, in order to provide reproducibility and tests of robustness. QSPR and proteochemometric case studies are included which demonstrate camb's application.Graphical abstractFrom compounds and data to models: a complete model building workflow in one package.

Grid-based Continual Analysis of Molecular Interior for Drug Discovery, QSAR and QSPR.

PubMed

Potemkin, Andrey V; Grishina, Maria A; Potemkin, Vladimir A

2017-01-01

In 1979, R.D.Cramer and M.Milne made a first realization of 3D comparison of molecules by aligning them in space and by mapping their molecular fields to a 3D grid. Further, this approach was developed as the DYLOMMS (Dynamic Lattice- Oriented Molecular Modelling System) approach. In 1984, H.Wold and S.Wold proposed the use of partial least squares (PLS) analysis, instead of principal component analysis, to correlate the field values with biological activities. Then, in 1988, the method which was called CoMFA (Comparative Molecular Field Analysis) was introduced and the appropriate software became commercially available. Since 1988, a lot of 3D QSAR methods, algorithms and their modifications are introduced for solving of virtual drug discovery problems (e.g., CoMSIA, CoMMA, HINT, HASL, GOLPE, GRID, PARM, Raptor, BiS, CiS, ConGO,). All the methods can be divided into two groups (classes):1. Methods studying the exterior of molecules; 2) Methods studying the interior of molecules. A series of grid-based computational technologies for Continual Molecular Interior analysis (CoMIn) are invented in the current paper. The grid-based analysis is fulfilled by means of a lattice construction analogously to many other grid-based methods. The further continual elucidation of molecular structure is performed in various ways. (i) In terms of intermolecular interactions potentials. This can be represented as a superposition of Coulomb, Van der Waals interactions and hydrogen bonds. All the potentials are well known continual functions and their values can be determined in all lattice points for a molecule. (ii) In the terms of quantum functions such as electron density distribution, Laplacian and Hamiltonian of electron density distribution, potential energy distribution, the highest occupied and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals distribution and their superposition. To reduce time of calculations using quantum methods based on the first principles, an original quantum

Radiomic analysis in prediction of Human Papilloma Virus status.

PubMed

Yu, Kaixian; Zhang, Youyi; Yu, Yang; Huang, Chao; Liu, Rongjie; Li, Tengfei; Yang, Liuqing; Morris, Jeffrey S; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran; Zhu, Hongtu

2017-12-01

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) has been associated with oropharyngeal cancer prognosis. Traditionally the HPV status is tested through invasive lab test. Recently, the rapid development of statistical image analysis techniques has enabled precise quantitative analysis of medical images. The quantitative analysis of Computed Tomography (CT) provides a non-invasive way to assess HPV status for oropharynx cancer patients. We designed a statistical radiomics approach analyzing CT images to predict HPV status. Various radiomics features were extracted from CT scans, and analyzed using statistical feature selection and prediction methods. Our approach ranked the highest in the 2016 Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention (MICCAI) grand challenge: Oropharynx Cancer (OPC) Radiomics Challenge, Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Status Prediction. Further analysis on the most relevant radiomic features distinguishing HPV positive and negative subjects suggested that HPV positive patients usually have smaller and simpler tumors.

Characterization and prediction of chemical functions and weight fractions in consumer products.

PubMed

Isaacs, Kristin K; Goldsmith, Michael-Rock; Egeghy, Peter; Phillips, Katherine; Brooks, Raina; Hong, Tao; Wambaugh, John F

2016-01-01

Assessing exposures from the thousands of chemicals in commerce requires quantitative information on the chemical constituents of consumer products. Unfortunately, gaps in available composition data prevent assessment of exposure to chemicals in many products. Here we propose filling these gaps via consideration of chemical functional role. We obtained function information for thousands of chemicals from public sources and used a clustering algorithm to assign chemicals into 35 harmonized function categories (e.g., plasticizers, antimicrobials, solvents). We combined these functions with weight fraction data for 4115 personal care products (PCPs) to characterize the composition of 66 different product categories (e.g., shampoos). We analyzed the combined weight fraction/function dataset using machine learning techniques to develop quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) classifier models for 22 functions and for weight fraction, based on chemical-specific descriptors (including chemical properties). We applied these classifier models to a library of 10196 data-poor chemicals. Our predictions of chemical function and composition will inform exposure-based screening of chemicals in PCPs for combination with hazard data in risk-based evaluation frameworks. As new information becomes available, this approach can be applied to other classes of products and the chemicals they contain in order to provide essential consumer product data for use in exposure-based chemical prioritization.

Predictive value of bacterial analysis of laparotomy wounds.

PubMed

Minutolo, Mario; Blandino, Giovanna; Arena, Manuel; Licciardello, Alessio; Di Stefano, Biagio; Lanteri, Raffaele; Puleo, Stefano; Licata, Antonio; Minutolo, Vincenzo

2014-01-01

Despite improvements in antibiotic prophylaxis, surgical site infections represent the most common postoperative complication with important clinical consequences for patients. The hypothesis that a bacterial analysis of the surgical wound in the operating room could predict the likelihood of developing a clinical infection, and might allow a tailored and preemptive approach, aimed to reduce the consequences of an infection, seems appealing. We would like to present a prospective study on the predictive value of the bacterial analysis of laparotomy wounds. Seventy eight prospective patients undergoing surgery were included in the study. To evaluate the risk factors associated with increased rate of wound infection, we performed a bacterial analysis of the wound. 48 patients out of 78 (61%) had positive cultures. 23 patients out of 32 patients (72%) who didn't receive antibiotic prophylaxis were positive to the wound culture whereas 25 patients out of 46 patients (54%) grew positive cultures in the group of patients that received antibiotic prophylaxis. None of the 30 patients with negative cultures developed clinical infection. Only 6 patients out of 48 patients who had positive cultures (12.5%) developed wound infection. Clinical infection occurred in 5 patients who had gram-negative contamination of the wound. No clinical infection occurred in patients who had gram-positive contamination. Wound cultures and their positivity are predictive tools to identify the patients that are at risk to develop wound infection. The positive predictive value of the bacterial analysis of the wound was 12.5%. Abdominal surgery, Bacterial analysis, Wound infection.

Prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients of organic compounds by multiple linear regression, partial least squares, and artificial neural network.

PubMed

Golmohammadi, Hassan

2009-11-30

A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) study was performed to develop models those relate the structure of 141 organic compounds to their octanol-water partition coefficients (log P(o/w)). A genetic algorithm was applied as a variable selection tool. Modeling of log P(o/w) of these compounds as a function of theoretically derived descriptors was established by multiple linear regression (MLR), partial least squares (PLS), and artificial neural network (ANN). The best selected descriptors that appear in the models are: atomic charge weighted partial positively charged surface area (PPSA-3), fractional atomic charge weighted partial positive surface area (FPSA-3), minimum atomic partial charge (Qmin), molecular volume (MV), total dipole moment of molecule (mu), maximum antibonding contribution of a molecule orbital in the molecule (MAC), and maximum free valency of a C atom in the molecule (MFV). The result obtained showed the ability of developed artificial neural network to prediction of partition coefficients of organic compounds. Also, the results revealed the superiority of ANN over the MLR and PLS models. Copyright 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Making predictions skill level analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

2017-01-01

The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

Quantitative structure-property relationships for octanol-water partition coefficients of polybrominated diphenyl ethers.

PubMed

Li, Linnan; Xie, Shaodong; Cai, Hao; Bai, Xuetao; Xue, Zhao

2008-08-01

Theoretical molecular descriptors were tested against logK(OW) values for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) using the Partial Least-Squares Regression method which can be used to analyze data with many variables and few observations. A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model was successfully developed with a high cross-validated value (Q(cum)(2)) of 0.961, indicating a good predictive ability and stability of the model. The predictive power of the QSPR model was further cross-validated. The values of logK(OW) for PBDEs are mainly governed by molecular surface area, energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital and the net atomic charges on the oxygen atom. All these descriptors have been discussed to interpret the partitioning mechanism of PBDE chemicals. The bulk property of the molecules represented by molecular surface area is the leading factor, and K(OW) values increase with the increase of molecular surface area. Higher energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital and higher net atomic charge on the oxygen atom of PBDEs result in smaller K(OW). The energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital and the net atomic charge on PBDEs oxygen also play important roles in affecting the partition of PBDEs between octanol and water by influencing the interactions between PBDEs and solvent molecules.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Exploring the QSAR's predictive truthfulness of the novel N-tuple discrete derivative indices on benchmark datasets.

PubMed

Martínez-Santiago, O; Marrero-Ponce, Y; Vivas-Reyes, R; Rivera-Borroto, O M; Hurtado, E; Treto-Suarez, M A; Ramos, Y; Vergara-Murillo, F; Orozco-Ugarriza, M E; Martínez-López, Y

2017-05-01

Graph derivative indices (GDIs) have recently been defined over N-atoms (N = 2, 3 and 4) simultaneously, which are based on the concept of derivatives in discrete mathematics (finite difference), metaphorical to the derivative concept in classical mathematical analysis. These molecular descriptors (MDs) codify topo-chemical and topo-structural information based on the concept of the derivative of a molecular graph with respect to a given event (S) over duplex, triplex and quadruplex relations of atoms (vertices). These GDIs have been successfully applied in the description of physicochemical properties like reactivity, solubility and chemical shift, among others, and in several comparative quantitative structure activity/property relationship (QSAR/QSPR) studies. Although satisfactory results have been obtained in previous modelling studies with the aforementioned indices, it is necessary to develop new, more rigorous analysis to assess the true predictive performance of the novel structure codification. So, in the present paper, an assessment and statistical validation of the performance of these novel approaches in QSAR studies are executed, as well as a comparison with those of other QSAR procedures reported in the literature. To achieve the main aim of this research, QSARs were developed on eight chemical datasets widely used as benchmarks in the evaluation/validation of several QSAR methods and/or many different MDs (fundamentally 3D MDs). Three to seven variable QSAR models were built for each chemical dataset, according to the original dissection into training/test sets. The models were developed by using multiple linear regression (MLR) coupled with a genetic algorithm as the feature wrapper selection technique in the MobyDigs software. Each family of GDIs (for duplex, triplex and quadruplex) behaves similarly in all modelling, although there were some exceptions. However, when all families were used in combination, the results achieved were quantitatively

Developing QSPR model of gas/particle partition coefficients of neutral poly-/perfluoroalkyl substances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Quan; Ma, Guangcai; Xu, Ting; Serge, Bakire; Yu, Haiying; Chen, Jianrong; Lin, Hongjun

2016-10-01

Poly-/perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are a class of synthetic fluorinated organic substances that raise increasing concern because of their environmental persistence, bioaccumulation and widespread presence in various environment media and organisms. PFASs can be released into the atmosphere through both direct and indirect sources, and the gas/particle partition coefficient (KP) is an important parameter that helps us to understand their atmospheric behavior. In this study, we developed a temperature-dependent predictive model for log KP of PFASs and analyzed the molecular mechanism that governs their partitioning equilibrium between gas phase and particle phase. All theoretical computation was carried out at B3LYP/6-31G (d, p) level based on neutral molecular structures by Gaussian 09 program package. The regression model has a good statistical performance and robustness. The application domain has also been defined according to OECD guidance. The mechanism analysis shows that electrostatic interaction and dispersion interaction play the most important role in the partitioning equilibrium. The developed model can be used to predict log KP values of neutral fluorotelomer alcohols and perfluor sulfonamides/sulfonamidoethanols with different substitutions at nitrogen atoms, providing basic data for their ecological risk assessment.

MEM spectral analysis for predicting influenza epidemics in Japan.

PubMed

Sumi, Ayako; Kamo, Ken-ichi

2012-03-01

The prediction of influenza epidemics has long been the focus of attention in epidemiology and mathematical biology. In this study, we tested whether time series analysis was useful for predicting the incidence of influenza in Japan. The method of time series analysis we used consists of spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. Using this time series analysis, we analyzed the incidence data of influenza in Japan from January 1948 to December 1998; these data are unique in that they covered the periods of pandemics in Japan in 1957, 1968, and 1977. On the basis of the MEM spectral analysis, we identified the periodic modes explaining the underlying variations of the incidence data. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated with the periodic modes reproduced the underlying variation of the incidence data. An extension of the LSF curve could be used to predict the incidence of influenza quantitatively. Our study suggested that MEM spectral analysis would allow us to model temporal variations of influenza epidemics with multiple periodic modes much more effectively than by using the method of conventional time series analysis, which has been used previously to investigate the behavior of temporal variations in influenza data.

Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

2017-10-01

Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

Predictive Models for the Free Energy of Hydrogen Bonded Complexes with Single and Cooperative Hydrogen Bonds.

PubMed

Glavatskikh, Marta; Madzhidov, Timur; Solov'ev, Vitaly; Marcou, Gilles; Horvath, Dragos; Varnek, Alexandre

2016-12-01

In this work, we report QSPR modeling of the free energy ΔG of 1 : 1 hydrogen bond complexes of different H-bond acceptors and donors. The modeling was performed on a large and structurally diverse set of 3373 complexes featuring a single hydrogen bond, for which ΔG was measured at 298 K in CCl 4 . The models were prepared using Support Vector Machine and Multiple Linear Regression, with ISIDA fragment descriptors. The marked atoms strategy was applied at fragmentation stage, in order to capture the location of H-bond donor and acceptor centers. Different strategies of model validation have been suggested, including the targeted omission of individual H-bond acceptors and donors from the training set, in order to check whether the predictive ability of the model is not limited to the interpolation of H-bond strength between two already encountered partners. Successfully cross-validating individual models were combined into a consensus model, and challenged to predict external test sets of 629 and 12 complexes, in which donor and acceptor formed single and cooperative H-bonds, respectively. In all cases, SVM models outperform MLR. The SVM consensus model performs well both in 3-fold cross-validation (RMSE=1.50 kJ/mol), and on the external test sets containing complexes with single (RMSE=3.20 kJ/mol) and cooperative H-bonds (RMSE=1.63 kJ/mol). © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

High-fidelity modeling and impact footprint prediction for vehicle breakup analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Lisa

For decades, vehicle breakup analysis had been performed for space missions that used nuclear heater or power units in order to assess aerospace nuclear safety for potential launch failures leading to inadvertent atmospheric reentry. Such pre-launch risk analysis is imperative to assess possible environmental impacts, obtain launch approval, and for launch contingency planning. In order to accurately perform a vehicle breakup analysis, the analysis tool should include a trajectory propagation algorithm coupled with thermal and structural analyses and influences. Since such a software tool was not available commercially or in the public domain, a basic analysis tool was developed by Dr. Angus McRonald prior to this study. This legacy software consisted of low-fidelity modeling and had the capability to predict vehicle breakup, but did not predict the surface impact point of the nuclear component. Thus the main thrust of this study was to develop and verify the additional dynamics modeling and capabilities for the analysis tool with the objectives to (1) have the capability to predict impact point and footprint, (2) increase the fidelity in the prediction of vehicle breakup, and (3) reduce the effort and time required to complete an analysis. The new functions developed for predicting the impact point and footprint included 3-degrees-of-freedom trajectory propagation, the generation of non-arbitrary entry conditions, sensitivity analysis, and the calculation of impact footprint. The functions to increase the fidelity in the prediction of vehicle breakup included a panel code to calculate the hypersonic aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary-shaped body and the modeling of local winds. The function to reduce the effort and time required to complete an analysis included the calculation of node failure criteria. The derivation and development of these new functions are presented in this dissertation, and examples are given to demonstrate the new capabilities and the

Solar prediction analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jesse B.

1992-01-01

Solar Activity prediction is essential to definition of orbital design and operational environments for space flight. This task provides the necessary research to better understand solar predictions being generated by the solar community and to develop improved solar prediction models. The contractor shall provide the necessary manpower and facilities to perform the following tasks: (1) review, evaluate, and assess the time evolution of the solar cycle to provide probable limits of solar cycle behavior near maximum end during the decline of solar cycle 22, and the forecasts being provided by the solar community and the techniques being used to generate these forecasts; and (2) develop and refine prediction techniques for short-term solar behavior flare prediction within solar active regions, with special emphasis on the correlation of magnetic shear with flare occurrence.

Rhamnolipid CMC prediction.

PubMed

Kłosowska-Chomiczewska, I E; Mędrzycka, K; Hallmann, E; Karpenko, E; Pokynbroda, T; Macierzanka, A; Jungnickel, C

2017-02-15

Relationships between the purity, pH, hydrophobicity (logK ow ) of the carbon substrate, and the critical micelle concentration (CMC) of rhamnolipid type biosurfactants (RL) were investigated using a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) approach and are presented here for the first time. Measured and literature CMC values of 97 RLs, representing biosurfactants at different stages of purification, were considered. An arbitrary scale for RLs purity was proposed and used in the modelling. A modified evolutionary algorithm was used to create clusters of equations to optimally describe the relationship between CMC and logK ow , pH and purity (the optimal equation had an R 2 of 0.8366). It was found that hydrophobicity of the carbon substrate used for the biosynthesis of the RL had the most significant influence on the final CMC of the RL. Purity of the RLs was also found to have a significant impact, where generally the less pure the RL the higher the CMC. These results were in accordance with our experimental data. Therefore, our model equation may be used for controlling the biosynthesis of biosurfactants with properties targeted for specific applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination and prediction of octanol-air partition coefficients of hydroxylated and methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongxia; Xie, Qing; Tan, Feng; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie; Qu, Baocheng; Zhang, Xin; Li, Xiaona

2010-07-01

The octanol-air partition coefficient (K(OA)) of 19 hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (OH-PBDEs) and 10 methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (MeO-PBDEs) were measured as a function of temperature using a gas chromatographic retention time technique. At room temperature (298.15K), log K(OA) ranged from 8.30 for monobrominated OH/MeO-PBDEs to 13.29 for hexabrominated OH/MeO-PBDEs. The internal energies of phase change from octanol to air (Delta(OA)U) for 29 OH/MeO-PBDE congeners ranged from 72 to 126 kJ mol(-1). Using partial least-squares (PLS) analysis, a statistically quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model for logK(OA) of OH/MeO-PBDE congeners was developed based on the 16 fundamental quantum chemical descriptors computed by PM3 Hamiltonian, for which the Q(cum)(2) was about 0.937. The molecular weight (Mw) and energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E(LUMO)) were found to be main factors governing the log K(OA). 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting drug loading in PLA-PEG nanoparticles.

PubMed

Meunier, M; Goupil, A; Lienard, P

2017-06-30

Polymer nanoparticles present advantageous physical and biopharmaceutical properties as drug delivery systems compared to conventional liquid formulations. Active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are often hydrophobic, thus not soluble in conventional liquid delivery. Encapsulating the drugs in polymer nanoparticles can improve their pharmacological and bio-distribution properties, preventing rapid clearance from the bloodstream. Such nanoparticles are commonly made of non-toxic amphiphilic self-assembling block copolymers where the core (poly-[d,l-lactic acid] or PLA) serves as a reservoir for the API and the external part (Poly-(Ethylene-Glycol) or PEG) serves as a stealth corona to avoid capture by macrophage. The present study aims to predict the drug affinity for PLA-PEG nanoparticles and their effective drug loading using in silico tools in order to virtually screen potential drugs for non-covalent encapsulation applications. To that end, different simulation methods such as molecular dynamics and Monte-Carlo have been used to estimate the binding of actives on model polymer surfaces. Initially, the methods and models are validated against a series of pigments molecules for which experimental data exist. The drug affinity for the core of the nanoparticles is estimated using a Monte-Carlo "docking" method. Drug miscibility in the polymer matrix, using the Hildebrand solubility parameter (δ), and the solvation free energy of the drug in the PLA polymer model is then estimated. Finally, existing published ALogP quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) are compared to this method. Our results demonstrate that adsorption energies modelled by docking atomistic simulations on PLA surfaces correlate well with experimental drug loadings, whereas simpler approaches based on Hildebrand solubility parameters and Flory-Huggins interaction parameters do not. More complex molecular dynamics techniques which use estimation of the solvation free energies both in

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) and Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA) Predictions for a Floor-Equipped Composite Cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.; Schiller, Noah H.; Cabell, Randolph H.

2011-01-01

Comet Enflow is a commercially available, high frequency vibroacoustic analysis software founded on Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA) and Energy Boundary Element Analysis (EBEA). Energy Finite Element Analysis (EFEA) was validated on a floor-equipped composite cylinder by comparing EFEA vibroacoustic response predictions with Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) and experimental results. Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions were made using the commercial software program VA One 2009 from ESI Group. The frequency region of interest for this study covers the one-third octave bands with center frequencies from 100 Hz to 4000 Hz.

Toxico-Cheminformatics and QSPR Modeling of the Carcinogenic Potency Database

EPA Science Inventory

Report on the development of a tiered, confirmatory scheme for prediction of chemical carcinogenicity based on QSAR studies of compounds with available mutagenic and carcinogenic data. For 693 such compounds from the Carcinogenic Potency Database characterized molecular topologic...

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

2011-03-01

The number of successes and the space-time alarm rate are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. It has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic to evaluate the forecaster's skill, the gambling score (GS), which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand parametrization of the GS and use the M8 prediction algorithm to illustrate difficulties of the new approach in the analysis of the prediction significance. We show that the level of significance strongly depends (1) on the choice of alarm weights, (2) on the partitioning of the entire alarm volume into component parts and (3) on the accuracy of the spatial rate measure of target events. These tools are at the disposal of the researcher and can affect the significance estimate. Formally, all reasonable GSs discussed here corroborate that the M8 method is non-trivial in the prediction of 8.0 ≤M < 8.5 events because the point estimates of the significance are in the range 0.5-5 per cent. However, the conservative estimate 3.7 per cent based on the number of successes seems preferable owing to two circumstances: (1) it is based on relative values of the spatial rate and hence is more stable and (2) the statistic of successes enables us to construct analytically an upper estimate of the significance taking into account the uncertainty of the spatial rate measure.

Efficient Reduction and Analysis of Model Predictive Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, J.

2006-12-01

dominates the former) depends on the "innate variability" of hydraulic properties within the model domain. Knowledge of both of these is a prerequisite for characterisation of the magnitude of possible model predictive error. Unfortunately, in most cases, such knowledge is incomplete and subjective. Nevertheless, useful analysis of model predictive error can still take place. The present paper briefly discusses the means by which mathematical regularisation can be employed in the model calibration process in order to extract as much information as possible on hydraulic property heterogeneity prevailing within the model domain, thereby reducing predictive error to the lowest that can be achieved on the basis of that dataset. It then demonstrates the means by which predictive error variance can be quantified based on information supplied by the regularised inversion process. Both linear and nonlinear predictive error variance analysis is demonstrated using a number of real-world and synthetic examples.

Prediction and analysis of beta-turns in proteins by support vector machine.

PubMed

Pham, Tho Hoan; Satou, Kenji; Ho, Tu Bao

2003-01-01

Tight turn has long been recognized as one of the three important features of proteins after the alpha-helix and beta-sheet. Tight turns play an important role in globular proteins from both the structural and functional points of view. More than 90% tight turns are beta-turns. Analysis and prediction of beta-turns in particular and tight turns in general are very useful for the design of new molecules such as drugs, pesticides, and antigens. In this paper, we introduce a support vector machine (SVM) approach to prediction and analysis of beta-turns. We have investigated two aspects of applying SVM to the prediction and analysis of beta-turns. First, we developed a new SVM method, called BTSVM, which predicts beta-turns of a protein from its sequence. The prediction results on the dataset of 426 non-homologous protein chains by sevenfold cross-validation technique showed that our method is superior to the other previous methods. Second, we analyzed how amino acid positions support (or prevent) the formation of beta-turns based on the "multivariable" classification model of a linear SVM. This model is more general than the other ones of previous statistical methods. Our analysis results are more comprehensive and easier to use than previously published analysis results.

Using Time Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a PICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Aoki, Noriaki; Mariscalco, Michele; Turley, James P

2015-11-01

To build and test cardiac arrest prediction models in a PICU, using time series analysis as input, and to measure changes in prediction accuracy attributable to different classes of time series data. Retrospective cohort study. Thirty-one bed academic PICU that provides care for medical and general surgical (not congenital heart surgery) patients. Patients experiencing a cardiac arrest in the PICU and requiring external cardiac massage for at least 2 minutes. None. One hundred three cases of cardiac arrest and 109 control cases were used to prepare a baseline dataset that consisted of 1,025 variables in four data classes: multivariate, raw time series, clinical calculations, and time series trend analysis. We trained 20 arrest prediction models using a matrix of five feature sets (combinations of data classes) with four modeling algorithms: linear regression, decision tree, neural network, and support vector machine. The reference model (multivariate data with regression algorithm) had an accuracy of 78% and 87% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The best model (multivariate + trend analysis data with support vector machine algorithm) had an accuracy of 94% and 98% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cardiac arrest predictions based on a traditional model built with multivariate data and a regression algorithm misclassified cases 3.7 times more frequently than predictions that included time series trend analysis and built with a support vector machine algorithm. Although the final model lacks the specificity necessary for clinical application, we have demonstrated how information from time series data can be used to increase the accuracy of clinical prediction models.

Nonstationary time series prediction combined with slow feature analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Chen, X.

2015-07-01

Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external driving forces perturbing the observed system. Therefore, these external driving forces should be taken into account when constructing the climate dynamics. This paper presents a new technique of obtaining the driving forces of a time series from the slow feature analysis (SFA) approach, and then introduces them into a predictive model to predict nonstationary time series. The basic theory of the technique is to consider the driving forces as state variables and to incorporate them into the predictive model. Experiments using a modified logistic time series and winter ozone data in Arosa, Switzerland, were conducted to test the model. The results showed improved prediction skills.

Modeling the binding affinity of structurally diverse industrial chemicals to carbon using the artificial intelligence approaches.

PubMed

Gupta, Shikha; Basant, Nikita; Rai, Premanjali; Singh, Kunwar P

2015-11-01

Binding affinity of chemical to carbon is an important characteristic as it finds vast industrial applications. Experimental determination of the adsorption capacity of diverse chemicals onto carbon is both time and resource intensive, and development of computational approaches has widely been advocated. In this study, artificial intelligence (AI)-based ten different qualitative and quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models (MLPN, RBFN, PNN/GRNN, CCN, SVM, GEP, GMDH, SDT, DTF, DTB) were established for the prediction of the adsorption capacity of structurally diverse chemicals to activated carbon following the OECD guidelines. Structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinear dependence in the data were evaluated using the Tanimoto similarity index and Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman statistics. The generalization and prediction abilities of the constructed models were established through rigorous internal and external validation procedures performed employing a wide series of statistical checks. In complete dataset, the qualitative models rendered classification accuracies between 97.04 and 99.93%, while the quantitative models yielded correlation (R(2)) values of 0.877-0.977 between the measured and the predicted endpoint values. The quantitative prediction accuracies for the higher molecular weight (MW) compounds (class 4) were relatively better than those for the low MW compounds. Both in the qualitative and quantitative models, the Polarizability was the most influential descriptor. Structural alerts responsible for the extreme adsorption behavior of the compounds were identified. Higher number of carbon and presence of higher halogens in a molecule rendered higher binding affinity. Proposed QSPR models performed well and outperformed the previous reports. A relatively better performance of the ensemble learning models (DTF, DTB) may be attributed to the strengths of the bagging and boosting algorithms which enhance the predictive accuracies. The

Predicting epileptic seizures from scalp EEG based on attractor state analysis.

PubMed

Chu, Hyunho; Chung, Chun Kee; Jeong, Woorim; Cho, Kwang-Hyun

2017-05-01

Epilepsy is the second most common disease of the brain. Epilepsy makes it difficult for patients to live a normal life because it is difficult to predict when seizures will occur. In this regard, if seizures could be predicted a reasonable period of time before their occurrence, epilepsy patients could take precautions against them and improve their safety and quality of life. In this paper, we investigate a novel seizure precursor based on attractor state analysis for seizure prediction. We analyze the transition process from normal to seizure attractor state and investigate a precursor phenomenon seen before reaching the seizure attractor state. From the result of an analysis, we define a quantified spectral measure in scalp EEG for seizure prediction. From scalp EEG recordings, the Fourier coefficients of six EEG frequency bands are extracted, and the defined spectral measure is computed based on the coefficients for each half-overlapped 20-second-long window. The computed spectral measure is applied to seizure prediction using a low-complexity methodology. Within scalp EEG, we identified an early-warning indicator before an epileptic seizure occurs. Getting closer to the bifurcation point that triggers the transition from normal to seizure state, the power spectral density of low frequency bands of the perturbation of an attractor in the EEG, showed a relative increase. A low-complexity seizure prediction algorithm using this feature was evaluated, using ∼583h of scalp EEG in which 143 seizures in 16 patients were recorded. With the test dataset, the proposed method showed high sensitivity (86.67%) with a false prediction rate of 0.367h -1 and average prediction time of 45.3min. A novel seizure prediction method using scalp EEG, based on attractor state analysis, shows potential for application with real epilepsy patients. This is the first study in which the seizure-precursor phenomenon of an epileptic seizure is investigated based on attractor

Analysis and prediction of Multiple-Site Damage (MSD) fatigue crack growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawicke, D. S.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1992-01-01

A technique was developed to calculate the stress intensity factor for multiple interacting cracks. The analysis was verified through comparison with accepted methods of calculating stress intensity factors. The technique was incorporated into a fatigue crack growth prediction model and used to predict the fatigue crack growth life for multiple-site damage (MSD). The analysis was verified through comparison with experiments conducted on uniaxially loaded flat panels with multiple cracks. Configuration with nearly equal and unequal crack distribution were examined. The fatigue crack growth predictions agreed within 20 percent of the experimental lives for all crack configurations considered.

Predicting performance with traffic analysis tools : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-03-01

This document provides insights into the common pitfalls and challenges associated with use of traffic analysis tools for predicting future performance of a transportation facility. It provides five in-depth case studies that demonstrate common ways ...

Predictability effects in auditory scene analysis: a review

PubMed Central

Bendixen, Alexandra

2014-01-01

Many sound sources emit signals in a predictable manner. The idea that predictability can be exploited to support the segregation of one source's signal emissions from the overlapping signals of other sources has been expressed for a long time. Yet experimental evidence for a strong role of predictability within auditory scene analysis (ASA) has been scarce. Recently, there has been an upsurge in experimental and theoretical work on this topic resulting from fundamental changes in our perspective on how the brain extracts predictability from series of sensory events. Based on effortless predictive processing in the auditory system, it becomes more plausible that predictability would be available as a cue for sound source decomposition. In the present contribution, empirical evidence for such a role of predictability in ASA will be reviewed. It will be shown that predictability affects ASA both when it is present in the sound source of interest (perceptual foreground) and when it is present in other sound sources that the listener wishes to ignore (perceptual background). First evidence pointing toward age-related impairments in the latter capacity will be addressed. Moreover, it will be illustrated how effects of predictability can be shown by means of objective listening tests as well as by subjective report procedures, with the latter approach typically exploiting the multi-stable nature of auditory perception. Critical aspects of study design will be delineated to ensure that predictability effects can be unambiguously interpreted. Possible mechanisms for a functional role of predictability within ASA will be discussed, and an analogy with the old-plus-new heuristic for grouping simultaneous acoustic signals will be suggested. PMID:24744695

Structure-based predictions of 13C-NMR chemical shifts for a series of 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indoles derivatives using GA-based MLR method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Raouf; Sadeghi, Faridoon; Rasouli, Zolikha; Djannati, Farhad

2012-12-01

Experimental values for the 13C NMR chemical shifts (ppm, TMS = 0) at 300 K ranging from 96.28 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 17) to 159.93 ppm (C4' of indole derivative 23) relative to deuteride chloroform (CDCl3, 77.0 ppm) or dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO, 39.50 ppm) as internal reference in CDCl3 or DMSO-d6 solutions have been collected from literature for thirty 2-functionalized 5-(methylsulfonyl)-1-phenyl-1H-indole derivatives containing different substituted groups. An effective quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models were built using hybrid method combining genetic algorithm (GA) based on stepwise selection multiple linear regression (SWS-MLR) as feature-selection tools and correlation models between each carbon atom of indole derivative and calculated descriptors. Each compound was depicted by molecular structural descriptors that encode constitutional, topological, geometrical, electrostatic, and quantum chemical features. The accuracy of all developed models were confirmed using different types of internal and external procedures and various statistical tests. Furthermore, the domain of applicability for each model which indicates the area of reliable predictions was defined.

Model fitting for small skin permeability data sets: hyperparameter optimisation in Gaussian Process Regression.

PubMed

Ashrafi, Parivash; Sun, Yi; Davey, Neil; Adams, Roderick G; Wilkinson, Simon C; Moss, Gary Patrick

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate how to improve predictions from Gaussian Process models by optimising the model hyperparameters. Optimisation methods, including Grid Search, Conjugate Gradient, Random Search, Evolutionary Algorithm and Hyper-prior, were evaluated and applied to previously published data. Data sets were also altered in a structured manner to reduce their size, which retained the range, or 'chemical space' of the key descriptors to assess the effect of the data range on model quality. The Hyper-prior Smoothbox kernel results in the best models for the majority of data sets, and they exhibited significantly better performance than benchmark quantitative structure-permeability relationship (QSPR) models. When the data sets were systematically reduced in size, the different optimisation methods generally retained their statistical quality, whereas benchmark QSPR models performed poorly. The design of the data set, and possibly also the approach to validation of the model, is critical in the development of improved models. The size of the data set, if carefully controlled, was not generally a significant factor for these models and that models of excellent statistical quality could be produced from substantially smaller data sets. © 2018 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Kinetics and equilibrium of solute diffusion into human hair.

PubMed

Wang, Liming; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Lian, Guoping

2012-12-01

The uptake kinetics of five molecules by hair has been measured and the effects of pH and physical chemical properties of molecules were investigated. A theoretical model is proposed to analyze the experimental data. The results indicate that the binding affinity of solute to hair, as characterized by hair-water partition coefficient, scales to the hydrophobicity of the solute and decreases dramatically as the pH increases to the dissociation constant. The effective diffusion coefficient of solute depended not only on the molecular size as most previous studies suggested, but also on the binding affinity as well as solute dissociation. It appears that the uptake of molecules by hair is due to both hydrophobic interaction and ionic charge interaction. Based on theoretical considerations of the cellular structure, composition and physical chemical properties of hair, quantitative-structure-property-relationships (QSPR) have been proposed to predict the hair-water partition coefficient (PC) and the effective diffusion coefficient (D (e)) of solute. The proposed QSPR models fit well with the experimental data. This paper could be taken as a reference for investigating the adsorption properties for polymeric materials, fibres, and biomaterials.

Prediction of Recidivism in Juvenile Offenders Based on Discriminant Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Proefrock, David W.

The recent development of strong statistical techniques has made accurate predictions of recidivism possible. To investigate the utility of discriminant analysis methodology in making predictions of recidivism in juvenile offenders, the court records of 271 male and female juvenile offenders, aged 12-16, were reviewed. A cross validation group…

Nonstationary time series prediction combined with slow feature analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Chen, X.

2015-01-01

Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external driving forces perturbations of the observed system. Therefore, these external driving forces should be taken into account when reconstructing the climate dynamics. This paper presents a new technique of combining the driving force of a time series obtained using the Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) approach, then introducing the driving force into a predictive model to predict non-stationary time series. In essence, the main idea of the technique is to consider the driving forces as state variables and incorporate them into the prediction model. To test the method, experiments using a modified logistic time series and winter ozone data in Arosa, Switzerland, were conducted. The results showed improved and effective prediction skill.

Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

2015-04-01

Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

A recurrence-weighted prediction algorithm for musical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colucci, Renato; Leguizamon Cucunuba, Juan Sebastián; Lloyd, Simon

2018-03-01

Forecasting the future behaviour of a system using past data is an important topic. In this article we apply nonlinear time series analysis in the context of music, and present new algorithms for extending a sample of music, while maintaining characteristics similar to the original piece. By using ideas from ergodic theory, we adapt the classical prediction method of Lorenz analogues so as to take into account recurrence times, and demonstrate with examples, how the new algorithm can produce predictions with a high degree of similarity to the original sample.

Are EMS call volume predictions based on demand pattern analysis accurate?

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence H; Lerner, E Brooke; Larmon, Baxter; LeGassick, Todd; Taigman, Michael

2007-01-01

Most EMS systems determine the number of crews they will deploy in their communities and when those crews will be scheduled based on anticipated call volumes. Many systems use historical data to calculate their anticipated call volumes, a method of prediction known as demand pattern analysis. To evaluate the accuracy of call volume predictions calculated using demand pattern analysis. Seven EMS systems provided 73 consecutive weeks of hourly call volume data. The first 20 weeks of data were used to calculate three common demand pattern analysis constructs for call volume prediction: average peak demand (AP), smoothed average peak demand (SAP), and 90th percentile rank (90%R). The 21st week served as a buffer. Actual call volumes in the last 52 weeks were then compared to the predicted call volumes by using descriptive statistics. There were 61,152 hourly observations in the test period. All three constructs accurately predicted peaks and troughs in call volume but not exact call volume. Predictions were accurate (+/-1 call) 13% of the time using AP, 10% using SAP, and 19% using 90%R. Call volumes were overestimated 83% of the time using AP, 86% using SAP, and 74% using 90%R. When call volumes were overestimated, predictions exceeded actual call volume by a median (Interquartile range) of 4 (2-6) calls for AP, 4 (2-6) for SAP, and 3 (2-5) for 90%R. Call volumes were underestimated 4% of time using AP, 4% using SAP, and 7% using 90%R predictions. When call volumes were underestimated, call volumes exceeded predictions by a median (Interquartile range; maximum under estimation) of 1 (1-2; 18) call for AP, 1 (1-2; 18) for SAP, and 2 (1-3; 20) for 90%R. Results did not vary between systems. Generally, demand pattern analysis estimated or overestimated call volume, making it a reasonable predictor for ambulance staffing patterns. However, it did underestimate call volume between 4% and 7% of the time. Communities need to determine if these rates of over

CMC prediction for ionic surfactants in pure water and aqueous salt solutions based solely on tabulated molecular parameters.

PubMed

Karakashev, Stoyan I; Smoukov, Stoyan K

2017-09-01

The critical micelle concentration (CMC) of various surfactants is difficult to predict accurately, yet often necessary to do in both industry and science. Hence, quantum-chemical software packages for precise calculation of CMC were developed, but they are expensive and time consuming. We show here an easy method for calculating CMC with a reasonable accuracy. Firstly, CMC 0 (intrinsic CMC, absent added salt) was coupled with quantitative structure - property relationship (QSPR) with defined by us parameter "CMC predictor" f 1 . It can be easily calculated from a number of tabulated molecular parameters - the adsorption energy of surfactant's head, the adsorption energy of its methylene groups, its number of carbon atoms, the specific adsorption energy of its counter-ions, their valency and bare radius. We applied this method to determine CMC 0 to a test set of 11 ionic surfactants, yielding 7.5% accuracy. Furthermore, we calculated CMC in the presence of added salts using the advanced version of Corrin-Harkins equation, which accounts for both the intrinsic and the added counter-ions. Our salt-saturation multiplier, accounts for both the type and concentration of the added counter-ions. We applied our theory to a test set containing 11 anionic/cationic surfactant+salt systems, achieving 8% accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Method of Calculating Functional Independence Measure at Discharge from Functional Independence Measure Effectiveness Predicted by Multiple Regression Analysis Has a High Degree of Predictive Accuracy.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Makoto; Watanabe, Susumu; Sonoda, Shigeru

2017-09-01

Multiple linear regression analysis is often used to predict the outcome of stroke rehabilitation. However, the predictive accuracy may not be satisfactory. The objective of this study was to elucidate the predictive accuracy of a method of calculating motor Functional Independence Measure (mFIM) at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis. The subjects were 505 patients with stroke who were hospitalized in a convalescent rehabilitation hospital. The formula "mFIM at discharge = mFIM effectiveness × (91 points - mFIM at admission) + mFIM at admission" was used. By including the predicted mFIM effectiveness obtained through multiple regression analysis in this formula, we obtained the predicted mFIM at discharge (A). We also used multiple regression analysis to directly predict mFIM at discharge (B). The correlation between the predicted and the measured values of mFIM at discharge was compared between A and B. The correlation coefficients were .916 for A and .878 for B. Calculating mFIM at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis had a higher degree of predictive accuracy of mFIM at discharge than that directly predicted. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparative analysis of soft computing techniques for gene prediction.

PubMed

Goel, Neelam; Singh, Shailendra; Aseri, Trilok Chand

2013-07-01

The rapid growth of genomic sequence data for both human and nonhuman species has made analyzing these sequences, especially predicting genes in them, very important and is currently the focus of many research efforts. Beside its scientific interest in the molecular biology and genomics community, gene prediction is of considerable importance in human health and medicine. A variety of gene prediction techniques have been developed for eukaryotes over the past few years. This article reviews and analyzes the application of certain soft computing techniques in gene prediction. First, the problem of gene prediction and its challenges are described. These are followed by different soft computing techniques along with their application to gene prediction. In addition, a comparative analysis of different soft computing techniques for gene prediction is given. Finally some limitations of the current research activities and future research directions are provided. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating system parameters for solvent-water and plant cuticle-water using quantum chemically estimated Abraham solute parameters.

PubMed

Liang, Yuzhen; Torralba-Sanchez, Tifany L; Di Toro, Dominic M

2018-04-18

Polyparameter Linear Free Energy Relationships (pp-LFERs) using Abraham system parameters have many useful applications. However, developing the Abraham system parameters depends on the availability and quality of the Abraham solute parameters. Using Quantum Chemically estimated Abraham solute Parameters (QCAP) is shown to produce pp-LFERs that have lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) of predictions for solvent-water partition coefficients than parameters that are estimated using other presently available methods. pp-LFERs system parameters are estimated for solvent-water, plant cuticle-water systems, and for novel compounds using QCAP solute parameters and experimental partition coefficients. Refitting the system parameter improves the calculation accuracy and eliminates the bias. Refitted models for solvent-water partition coefficients using QCAP solute parameters give better results (RMSE = 0.278 to 0.506 log units for 24 systems) than those based on ABSOLV (0.326 to 0.618) and QSPR (0.294 to 0.700) solute parameters. For munition constituents and munition-like compounds not included in the calibration of the refitted model, QCAP solute parameters produce pp-LFER models with much lower RMSEs for solvent-water partition coefficients (RMSE = 0.734 and 0.664 for original and refitted model, respectively) than ABSOLV (4.46 and 5.98) and QSPR (2.838 and 2.723). Refitting plant cuticle-water pp-LFER including munition constituents using QCAP solute parameters also results in lower RMSE (RMSE = 0.386) than that using ABSOLV (0.778) and QSPR (0.512) solute parameters. Therefore, for fitting a model in situations for which experimental data exist and system parameters can be re-estimated, or for which system parameters do not exist and need to be developed, QCAP is the quantum chemical method of choice.

RNAstructure: software for RNA secondary structure prediction and analysis.

PubMed

Reuter, Jessica S; Mathews, David H

2010-03-15

To understand an RNA sequence's mechanism of action, the structure must be known. Furthermore, target RNA structure is an important consideration in the design of small interfering RNAs and antisense DNA oligonucleotides. RNA secondary structure prediction, using thermodynamics, can be used to develop hypotheses about the structure of an RNA sequence. RNAstructure is a software package for RNA secondary structure prediction and analysis. It uses thermodynamics and utilizes the most recent set of nearest neighbor parameters from the Turner group. It includes methods for secondary structure prediction (using several algorithms), prediction of base pair probabilities, bimolecular structure prediction, and prediction of a structure common to two sequences. This contribution describes new extensions to the package, including a library of C++ classes for incorporation into other programs, a user-friendly graphical user interface written in JAVA, and new Unix-style text interfaces. The original graphical user interface for Microsoft Windows is still maintained. The extensions to RNAstructure serve to make RNA secondary structure prediction user-friendly. The package is available for download from the Mathews lab homepage at http://rna.urmc.rochester.edu/RNAstructure.html.

Analysis and prediction of leucine-rich nuclear export signals.

PubMed

la Cour, Tanja; Kiemer, Lars; Mølgaard, Anne; Gupta, Ramneek; Skriver, Karen; Brunak, Søren

2004-06-01

We present a thorough analysis of nuclear export signals and a prediction server, which we have made publicly available. The machine learning prediction method is a significant improvement over the generally used consensus patterns. Nuclear export signals (NESs) are extremely important regulators of the subcellular location of proteins. This regulation has an impact on transcription and other nuclear processes, which are fundamental to the viability of the cell. NESs are studied in relation to cancer, the cell cycle, cell differentiation and other important aspects of molecular biology. Our conclusion from this analysis is that the most important properties of NESs are accessibility and flexibility allowing relevant proteins to interact with the signal. Furthermore, we show that not only the known hydrophobic residues are important in defining a nuclear export signals. We employ both neural networks and hidden Markov models in the prediction algorithm and verify the method on the most recently discovered NESs. The NES predictor (NetNES) is made available for general use at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/.

Rapid and Accurate Machine Learning Recognition of High Performing Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Capture.

PubMed

Fernandez, Michael; Boyd, Peter G; Daff, Thomas D; Aghaji, Mohammad Zein; Woo, Tom K

2014-09-04

In this work, we have developed quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models using advanced machine learning algorithms that can rapidly and accurately recognize high-performing metal organic framework (MOF) materials for CO2 capture. More specifically, QSPR classifiers have been developed that can, in a fraction of a section, identify candidate MOFs with enhanced CO2 adsorption capacity (>1 mmol/g at 0.15 bar and >4 mmol/g at 1 bar). The models were tested on a large set of 292 050 MOFs that were not part of the training set. The QSPR classifier could recover 945 of the top 1000 MOFs in the test set while flagging only 10% of the whole library for compute intensive screening. Thus, using the machine learning classifiers as part of a high-throughput screening protocol would result in an order of magnitude reduction in compute time and allow intractably large structure libraries and search spaces to be screened.

Analysis of Free Modeling Predictions by RBO Aleph in CASP11

PubMed Central

Mabrouk, Mahmoud; Werner, Tim; Schneider, Michael; Putz, Ines; Brock, Oliver

2015-01-01

The CASP experiment is a biannual benchmark for assessing protein structure prediction methods. In CASP11, RBO Aleph ranked as one of the top-performing automated servers in the free modeling category. This category consists of targets for which structural templates are not easily retrievable. We analyze the performance of RBO Aleph and show that its success in CASP was a result of its ab initio structure prediction protocol. A detailed analysis of this protocol demonstrates that two components unique to our method greatly contributed to prediction quality: residue–residue contact prediction by EPC-map and contact–guided conformational space search by model-based search (MBS). Interestingly, our analysis also points to a possible fundamental problem in evaluating the performance of protein structure prediction methods: Improvements in components of the method do not necessarily lead to improvements of the entire method. This points to the fact that these components interact in ways that are poorly understood. This problem, if indeed true, represents a significant obstacle to community-wide progress. PMID:26492194

Predictive susceptibility analysis of typhoon induced landslides in Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shou, Keh-Jian; Lin, Zora

2017-04-01

Climate change caused by global warming affects Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary, such as 2004 Mindulle and 2009 Morakot, hit Taiwan and induced serious flooding and landslides. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted Wu River watershed in Central Taiwan. To assess the spatial hazard of the landslides, landslide susceptibility analysis was also applied. Different types of rainfall factors were tested in the susceptibility models for a better accuracy. In addition, the routes of typhoons were also considered in the predictive analysis. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Bearing Procurement Analysis Method by Total Cost of Ownership Analysis and Reliability Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusaji, Wildan; Akbar, Muhammad; Sukoyo; Irianto, Dradjad

2018-03-01

In making bearing procurement analysis, price and its reliability must be considered as decision criteria, since price determines the direct cost as acquisition cost and reliability of bearing determine the indirect cost such as maintenance cost. Despite the indirect cost is hard to identify and measured, it has high contribution to overall cost that will be incurred. So, the indirect cost of reliability must be considered when making bearing procurement analysis. This paper tries to explain bearing evaluation method with the total cost of ownership analysis to consider price and maintenance cost as decision criteria. Furthermore, since there is a lack of failure data when bearing evaluation phase is conducted, reliability prediction method is used to predict bearing reliability from its dynamic load rating parameter. With this method, bearing with a higher price but has higher reliability is preferable for long-term planning. But for short-term planning the cheaper one but has lower reliability is preferable. This contextuality can give rise to conflict between stakeholders. Thus, the planning horizon needs to be agreed by all stakeholder before making a procurement decision.

Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability

PubMed Central

Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F.; Griggs, Jason A.; Bona, Álvaro Della

2013-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Methods Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1µm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength- control; (3) flexural strength- mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0 s in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Results Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0–14% failures) was: 80 MPa stress amplitude and 105 cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). Significance The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. PMID:23827018

Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Elkin, Elena B

2006-01-01

Diagnostic and prognostic models are typically evaluated with measures of accuracy that do not address clinical consequences. Decision-analytic techniques allow assessment of clinical outcomes but often require collection of additional information and may be cumbersome to apply to models that yield a continuous result. The authors sought a method for evaluating and comparing prediction models that incorporates clinical consequences,requires only the data set on which the models are tested,and can be applied to models that have either continuous or dichotomous results. The authors describe decision curve analysis, a simple, novel method of evaluating predictive models. They start by assuming that the threshold probability of a disease or event at which a patient would opt for treatment is informative of how the patient weighs the relative harms of a false-positive and a false-negative prediction. This theoretical relationship is then used to derive the net benefit of the model across different threshold probabilities. Plotting net benefit against threshold probability yields the "decision curve." The authors apply the method to models for the prediction of seminal vesicle invasion in prostate cancer patients. Decision curve analysis identified the range of threshold probabilities in which a model was of value, the magnitude of benefit, and which of several models was optimal. Decision curve analysis is a suitable method for evaluating alternative diagnostic and prognostic strategies that has advantages over other commonly used measures and techniques.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Analysis of free modeling predictions by RBO aleph in CASP11.

PubMed

Mabrouk, Mahmoud; Werner, Tim; Schneider, Michael; Putz, Ines; Brock, Oliver

2016-09-01

The CASP experiment is a biannual benchmark for assessing protein structure prediction methods. In CASP11, RBO Aleph ranked as one of the top-performing automated servers in the free modeling category. This category consists of targets for which structural templates are not easily retrievable. We analyze the performance of RBO Aleph and show that its success in CASP was a result of its ab initio structure prediction protocol. A detailed analysis of this protocol demonstrates that two components unique to our method greatly contributed to prediction quality: residue-residue contact prediction by EPC-map and contact-guided conformational space search by model-based search (MBS). Interestingly, our analysis also points to a possible fundamental problem in evaluating the performance of protein structure prediction methods: Improvements in components of the method do not necessarily lead to improvements of the entire method. This points to the fact that these components interact in ways that are poorly understood. This problem, if indeed true, represents a significant obstacle to community-wide progress. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):87-104. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Application of nomographs for analysis and prediction of receiver spurious response EMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heather, F. W.

1985-07-01

Spurious response EMI for the front end of a superheterodyne receiver follows a simple mathematic formula; however, the application of the formula to predict test frequencies produces more data than can be evaluated. An analysis technique has been developed to graphically depict all receiver spurious responses usig a nomograph and to permit selection of optimum test frequencies. The discussion includes the math model used to simulate a superheterodyne receiver, the implementation of the model in the computer program, the approach to test frequency selection, interpretation of the nomographs, analysis and prediction of receiver spurious response EMI from the nomographs, and application of the nomographs. In addition, figures are provided of sample applications. This EMI analysis and prediction technique greatly improves the Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) test engineer's ability to visualize the scope of receiver spurious response EMI testing and optimize test frequency selection.

Impact of Cloud Analysis on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Galician Region of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, M. J.; Balseiro, C. F.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Xue, M.; Brewster, K.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is applied to operational numerical weather prediction in Galicia, northwest Spain. The model is run daily for 72-h forecasts at a 10-km horizontal spacing. Located on the northwest coast of Spain and influenced by the Atlantic weather systems, Galicia has a high percentage (nearly 50%) of rainy days per year. For these reasons, the precipitation processes and the initialization of moisture and cloud fields are very important. Even though the ARPS model has a sophisticated data analysis system (`ADAS') that includes a 3D cloud analysis package, because of operational constraints, the current forecast starts from the 12-h forecast of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN). Still, procedures from the ADAS cloud analysis are being used to construct the cloud fields based on AVN data and then are applied to initialize the microphysical variables in ARPS. Comparisons of the ARPS predictions with local observations show that ARPS can predict very well both the daily total precipitation and its spatial distribution. ARPS also shows skill in predicting heavy rains and high winds, as observed during November 2000, and especially in the prediction of the 5 November 2000 storm that caused widespread wind and rain damage in Galicia. It is demonstrated that the cloud analysis contributes to the success of the precipitation forecasts.

Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability.

PubMed

Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F; Griggs, Jason A; Della Bona, Alvaro

2013-08-01

To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1μm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength-control; (3) flexural strength-mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0MPa/s stress rate, in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0-14% failures) was: 80MPa stress amplitude and 10(5) cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis: a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance.

PubMed

Eksborg, Staffan

2013-01-01

Pharmacokinetic studies are important for optimizing of drug dosing, but requires proper validation of the used pharmacokinetic procedures. However, simple and reliable statistical methods suitable for evaluation of the predictive performance of pharmacokinetic analysis are essentially lacking. The aim of the present study was to construct and evaluate a graphic procedure for quantification of predictive performance of individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Original data from previously published pharmacokinetic compartment analyses after intravenous, oral, and epidural administration, and digitized data, obtained from published scatter plots of observed vs predicted drug concentrations from population pharmacokinetic studies using the NPEM algorithm and NONMEM computer program and Bayesian forecasting procedures, were used for estimating the predictive performance according to the proposed graphical method and by the method of Sheiner and Beal. The graphical plot proposed in the present paper proved to be a useful tool for evaluation of predictive performance of both individual and population compartment pharmacokinetic analysis. The proposed method is simple to use and gives valuable information concerning time- and concentration-dependent inaccuracies that might occur in individual and population pharmacokinetic compartment analysis. Predictive performance can be quantified by the fraction of concentration ratios within arbitrarily specified ranges, e.g. within the range 0.8-1.2.

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

PubMed

Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

2016-01-01

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science

PubMed Central

Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

2016-01-01

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets. PMID:27532883

Cardiothoracic ratio for prediction of left ventricular dilation: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

PubMed

Loomba, Rohit S; Shah, Parinda H; Nijhawan, Karan; Aggarwal, Saurabh; Arora, Rohit

2015-03-01

Increased cardiothoracic ratio noted on chest radiographs often prompts concern and further evaluation with additional imaging. This study pools available data assessing the utility of cardiothoracic ratio in predicting left ventricular dilation. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify studies comparing cardiothoracic ratio by chest x-ray to left ventricular dilation by echocardiography. Electronic databases were used to identify studies which were then assessed for quality and bias, with those with adequate quality and minimal bias ultimately being included in the pooled analysis. The pooled data were used to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of cardiomegaly in predicting left ventricular dilation. A total of six studies consisting of 466 patients were included in this analysis. Cardiothoracic ratio had 83.3% sensitivity, 45.4% specificity, 43.5% positive predictive value and 82.7% negative predictive value. When a secondary analysis was conducted with a pediatric study excluded, a total of five studies consisting of 371 patients were included. Cardiothoracic ratio had 86.2% sensitivity, 25.2% specificity, 42.5% positive predictive value and 74.0% negative predictive value. Cardiothoracic ratio as determined by chest radiograph is sensitive but not specific for identifying left ventricular dilation. Cardiothoracic ratio also has a strong negative predictive value for identifying left ventricular dilation.

Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

2014-12-01

This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

Computer-based analysis of general movements reveals stereotypies predicting cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Philippi, Heike; Karch, Dominik; Kang, Keun-Sun; Wochner, Katarzyna; Pietz, Joachim; Dickhaus, Hartmut; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2014-10-01

To evaluate a kinematic paradigm of automatic general movements analysis in comparison to clinical assessment in 3-month-old infants and its prediction for neurodevelopmental outcome. Preterm infants at high risk (n=49; 26 males, 23 females) and term infants at low risk (n=18; eight males, 10 females) of developmental impairment were recruited from hospitals around Heidelberg, Germany. Kinematic analysis of general movements by magnet tracking and clinical video-based assessment of general movements were performed at 3 months of age. Neurodevelopmental outcome was evaluated at 2 years. By comparing the general movements of small samples of children with and without cerebral palsy (CP), we developed a kinematic paradigm typical for infants at risk of developing CP. We tested the validity of this paradigm as a tool to predict CP and neurodevelopmental impairment. Clinical assessment correctly identified almost all infants with neurodevelopmental impairment including CP, but did not predict if the infant would be affected by CP or not. The kinematic analysis, in particular the stereotypy score of arm movements, was an excellent predictor of CP, whereas stereotyped repetitive movements of the legs predicted any neurodevelopmental impairment. The automatic assessment of the stereotypy score by magnet tracking in 3-month-old spontaneously moving infants at high risk of developmental abnormalities allowed a valid detection of infants affected and unaffected by CP. © 2014 Mac Keith Press.

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

RDNAnalyzer: A tool for DNA secondary structure prediction and sequence analysis.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad; Shahid, Ahmad Ali; Shehzadi, Abida; Nadeem, Shahid; Husnain, Tayyab

2012-01-01

RDNAnalyzer is an innovative computer based tool designed for DNA secondary structure prediction and sequence analysis. It can randomly generate the DNA sequence or user can upload the sequences of their own interest in RAW format. It uses and extends the Nussinov dynamic programming algorithm and has various application for the sequence analysis. It predicts the DNA secondary structure and base pairings. It also provides the tools for routinely performed sequence analysis by the biological scientists such as DNA replication, reverse compliment generation, transcription, translation, sequence specific information as total number of nucleotide bases, ATGC base contents along with their respective percentages and sequence cleaner. RDNAnalyzer is a unique tool developed in Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 using Microsoft Visual C# and Windows Presentation Foundation and provides user friendly environment for sequence analysis. It is freely available. http://www.cemb.edu.pk/sw.html RDNAnalyzer - Random DNA Analyser, GUI - Graphical user interface, XAML - Extensible Application Markup Language.

RDNAnalyzer: A tool for DNA secondary structure prediction and sequence analysis

PubMed Central

Afzal, Muhammad; Shahid, Ahmad Ali; Shehzadi, Abida; Nadeem, Shahid; Husnain, Tayyab

2012-01-01

RDNAnalyzer is an innovative computer based tool designed for DNA secondary structure prediction and sequence analysis. It can randomly generate the DNA sequence or user can upload the sequences of their own interest in RAW format. It uses and extends the Nussinov dynamic programming algorithm and has various application for the sequence analysis. It predicts the DNA secondary structure and base pairings. It also provides the tools for routinely performed sequence analysis by the biological scientists such as DNA replication, reverse compliment generation, transcription, translation, sequence specific information as total number of nucleotide bases, ATGC base contents along with their respective percentages and sequence cleaner. RDNAnalyzer is a unique tool developed in Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 using Microsoft Visual C# and Windows Presentation Foundation and provides user friendly environment for sequence analysis. It is freely available. Availability http://www.cemb.edu.pk/sw.html Abbreviations RDNAnalyzer - Random DNA Analyser, GUI - Graphical user interface, XAML - Extensible Application Markup Language. PMID:23055611

Automated analysis of free speech predicts psychosis onset in high-risk youths

PubMed Central

Bedi, Gillinder; Carrillo, Facundo; Cecchi, Guillermo A; Slezak, Diego Fernández; Sigman, Mariano; Mota, Natália B; Ribeiro, Sidarta; Javitt, Daniel C; Copelli, Mauro; Corcoran, Cheryl M

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives: Psychiatry lacks the objective clinical tests routinely used in other specializations. Novel computerized methods to characterize complex behaviors such as speech could be used to identify and predict psychiatric illness in individuals. AIMS: In this proof-of-principle study, our aim was to test automated speech analyses combined with Machine Learning to predict later psychosis onset in youths at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis. Methods: Thirty-four CHR youths (11 females) had baseline interviews and were assessed quarterly for up to 2.5 years; five transitioned to psychosis. Using automated analysis, transcripts of interviews were evaluated for semantic and syntactic features predicting later psychosis onset. Speech features were fed into a convex hull classification algorithm with leave-one-subject-out cross-validation to assess their predictive value for psychosis outcome. The canonical correlation between the speech features and prodromal symptom ratings was computed. Results: Derived speech features included a Latent Semantic Analysis measure of semantic coherence and two syntactic markers of speech complexity: maximum phrase length and use of determiners (e.g., which). These speech features predicted later psychosis development with 100% accuracy, outperforming classification from clinical interviews. Speech features were significantly correlated with prodromal symptoms. Conclusions: Findings support the utility of automated speech analysis to measure subtle, clinically relevant mental state changes in emergent psychosis. Recent developments in computer science, including natural language processing, could provide the foundation for future development of objective clinical tests for psychiatry. PMID:27336038

Predicting Pilot Performance in Off-Nominal Conditions: A Meta-Analysis and Model Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wickens, C.D.; Hooey, B.L.; Gore, B.F.; Sebok, A.; Koenecke, C.; Salud, E.

2009-01-01

Pilot response to off-nominal (very rare) events represents a critical component to understanding the safety of next generation airspace technology and procedures. We describe a meta-analysis designed to integrate the existing data regarding pilot accuracy of detecting rare, unexpected events such as runway incursions in realistic flight simulations. Thirty-five studies were identified and pilot responses were categorized by expectancy, event location, and whether the pilot was flying with a highway-in-the-sky display. All three dichotomies produced large, significant effects on event miss rate. A model of human attention and noticing, N-SEEV, was then used to predict event noticing performance as a function of event salience and expectancy, and retinal eccentricity. Eccentricity is predicted from steady state scanning by the SEEV model of attention allocation. The model was used to predict miss rates for the expectancy, location and highway-in-the-sky (HITS) effects identified in the meta-analysis. The correlation between model-predicted results and data from the meta-analysis was 0.72.

Structural Damage Prediction and Analysis for Hypervelocity Impact: Consulting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

A portion of the contract NAS8-38856, 'Structural Damage Prediction and Analysis for Hypervelocity Impacts,' from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), included consulting which was to be documented in the final report. This attachment to the final report contains memos produced as part of that consulting.

Structural similarity based kriging for quantitative structure activity and property relationship modeling.

PubMed

Teixeira, Ana L; Falcao, Andre O

2014-07-28

Structurally similar molecules tend to have similar properties, i.e. closer molecules in the molecular space are more likely to yield similar property values while distant molecules are more likely to yield different values. Based on this principle, we propose the use of a new method that takes into account the high dimensionality of the molecular space, predicting chemical, physical, or biological properties based on the most similar compounds with measured properties. This methodology uses ordinary kriging coupled with three different molecular similarity approaches (based on molecular descriptors, fingerprints, and atom matching) which creates an interpolation map over the molecular space that is capable of predicting properties/activities for diverse chemical data sets. The proposed method was tested in two data sets of diverse chemical compounds collected from the literature and preprocessed. One of the data sets contained dihydrofolate reductase inhibition activity data, and the second molecules for which aqueous solubility was known. The overall predictive results using kriging for both data sets comply with the results obtained in the literature using typical QSPR/QSAR approaches. However, the procedure did not involve any type of descriptor selection or even minimal information about each problem, suggesting that this approach is directly applicable to a large spectrum of problems in QSAR/QSPR. Furthermore, the predictive results improve significantly with the similarity threshold between the training and testing compounds, allowing the definition of a confidence threshold of similarity and error estimation for each case inferred. The use of kriging for interpolation over the molecular metric space is independent of the training data set size, and no reparametrizations are necessary when more compounds are added or removed from the set, and increasing the size of the database will consequentially improve the quality of the estimations. Finally it is shown

Control and prediction of the course of brewery fermentations by gravimetric analysis.

PubMed

Kosín, P; Savel, J; Broz, A; Sigler, K

2008-01-01

A simple, fast and cheap test suitable for predicting the course of brewery fermentations based on mass analysis is described and its efficiency is evaluated. Compared to commonly used yeast vitality tests, this analysis takes into account wort composition and other factors that influence fermentation performance. It can be used to predict the shape of the fermentation curve in brewery fermentations and in research and development projects concerning yeast vitality, fermentation conditions and wort composition. It can also be a useful tool for homebrewers to control their fermentations.

Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnston, A.G.; Ropelewski, C.F.

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is explored as a multivariate linear statistical methodology with which to forecast fluctuations of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in real time. CCA is capable of identifying critical sequences of predictor patterns that tend to evolve into subsequent pattern that can be used to form a forecast. The CCA model is used to forecast the 3-month mean sea surface temperature (SST) in several regions of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans for projection times of 0 to 4 seasons beyond the immediately forthcoming season. The predictor variables, representing the climate situation in the four consecutive 3-monthmore » periods ending at the time of the forecast, are (1) quasi-global seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) and (2) SST in the predicted regions themselves. Forecast skill is estimated using cross-validation, and persistence is used as the primary skill control measure. Results indicate that a large region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (120[degrees]-170[degrees] W longitude) has the highest overall predictability, with excellent skill realized for winter forecasts made at the end of summer. CCA outperforms persistence in this region under most conditions, and does noticeably better with the SST included as a predictor in addition to the SLP. It is demonstrated that better forecast performance at the longer lead times would be obtained if some significantly earlier (i.e., up to 4 years) predictor data were included, because the ability to predict the lower-frequency ENSO phase changes would increase. The good performance of the current system at shorter lead times appears to be based largely on the ability to predict ENSO evolution for events already in progress. The forecasting of the eastern tropical Pacific SST using CCA is now done routinely on a monthly basis for a O-, 1-, and 2-season lead at the Climate Analysis Center.« less

Protein linear indices of the 'macromolecular pseudograph alpha-carbon atom adjacency matrix' in bioinformatics. Part 1: prediction of protein stability effects of a complete set of alanine substitutions in Arc repressor.

PubMed

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Medina-Marrero, Ricardo; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Romero-Zaldivar, Vicente; Torrens, Francisco; Castro, Eduardo A

2005-04-15

A novel approach to bio-macromolecular design from a linear algebra point of view is introduced. A protein's total (whole protein) and local (one or more amino acid) linear indices are a new set of bio-macromolecular descriptors of relevance to protein QSAR/QSPR studies. These amino-acid level biochemical descriptors are based on the calculation of linear maps on Rn[f k(xmi):Rn-->Rn] in canonical basis. These bio-macromolecular indices are calculated from the kth power of the macromolecular pseudograph alpha-carbon atom adjacency matrix. Total linear indices are linear functional on Rn. That is, the kth total linear indices are linear maps from Rn to the scalar R[f k(xm):Rn-->R]. Thus, the kth total linear indices are calculated by summing the amino-acid linear indices of all amino acids in the protein molecule. A study of the protein stability effects for a complete set of alanine substitutions in the Arc repressor illustrates this approach. A quantitative model that discriminates near wild-type stability alanine mutants from the reduced-stability ones in a training series was obtained. This model permitted the correct classification of 97.56% (40/41) and 91.67% (11/12) of proteins in the training and test set, respectively. It shows a high Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC=0.952) for the training set and an MCC=0.837 for the external prediction set. Additionally, canonical regression analysis corroborated the statistical quality of the classification model (Rcanc=0.824). This analysis was also used to compute biological stability canonical scores for each Arc alanine mutant. On the other hand, the linear piecewise regression model compared favorably with respect to the linear regression one on predicting the melting temperature (tm) of the Arc alanine mutants. The linear model explains almost 81% of the variance of the experimental tm (R=0.90 and s=4.29) and the LOO press statistics evidenced its predictive ability (q2=0.72 and scv=4.79). Moreover, the

Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome.

PubMed

Lalonde, Michel; Wells, R Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D; Wassenaar, Richard

2014-07-01

Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Cluster analysis results were

Sensitivity analysis of gene ranking methods in phenotype prediction.

PubMed

deAndrés-Galiana, Enrique J; Fernández-Martínez, Juan L; Sonis, Stephen T

2016-12-01

It has become clear that noise generated during the assay and analytical processes has the ability to disrupt accurate interpretation of genomic studies. Not only does such noise impact the scientific validity and costs of studies, but when assessed in the context of clinically translatable indications such as phenotype prediction, it can lead to inaccurate conclusions that could ultimately impact patients. We applied a sequence of ranking methods to damp noise associated with microarray outputs, and then tested the utility of the approach in three disease indications using publically available datasets. This study was performed in three phases. We first theoretically analyzed the effect of noise in phenotype prediction problems showing that it can be expressed as a modeling error that partially falsifies the pathways. Secondly, via synthetic modeling, we performed the sensitivity analysis for the main gene ranking methods to different types of noise. Finally, we studied the predictive accuracy of the gene lists provided by these ranking methods in synthetic data and in three different datasets related to cancer, rare and neurodegenerative diseases to better understand the translational aspects of our findings. In the case of synthetic modeling, we showed that Fisher's Ratio (FR) was the most robust gene ranking method in terms of precision for all the types of noise at different levels. Significance Analysis of Microarrays (SAM) provided slightly lower performance and the rest of the methods (fold change, entropy and maximum percentile distance) were much less precise and accurate. The predictive accuracy of the smallest set of high discriminatory probes was similar for all the methods in the case of Gaussian and Log-Gaussian noise. In the case of class assignment noise, the predictive accuracy of SAM and FR is higher. Finally, for real datasets (Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia, Inclusion Body Myositis and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) we found that FR and SAM

The NASA aircraft noise prediction program improved propeller analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, L. Cathy

1991-01-01

The improvements and the modifications of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) and the Propeller Analysis System (PAS) are described. Comparisons of the predictions and the test data are included in the case studies for the flat plate model in the Boundary Layer Module, for the effects of applying compressibility corrections to the lift and pressure coefficients, for the use of different weight factors in the Propeller Performance Module, for the use of the improved retarded time equation solution, and for the effect of the number grids in the Transonic Propeller Noise Module. The DNW tunnel test data of a propeller at different angles of attack and the Dowty Rotol data are compared with ANOPP predictions. The effect of the number of grids on the Transonic Propeller Noise Module predictions and the comparison of ANOPP TPN and DFP-ATP codes are studied. In addition to the above impact studies, the transonic propeller noise predictions for the SR-7, the UDF front rotor, and the support of the enroute noise test program are included.

Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

PubMed

Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

1996-01-01

This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

2010-12-01

The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

A Universal Tare Load Prediction Algorithm for Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, N.

2011-01-01

An algorithm is discussed that may be used to estimate tare loads of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm was originally developed by R. Galway of IAR/NRC Canada and has been described in the literature for the iterative analysis technique. Basic ideas of Galway's algorithm, however, are universally applicable and work for both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique. A recent modification of Galway's algorithm is presented that improves the convergence behavior of the tare load prediction process if it is used in combination with the non-iterative analysis technique. The modified algorithm allows an analyst to use an alternate method for the calculation of intermediate non-linear tare load estimates whenever Galway's original approach does not lead to a convergence of the tare load iterations. It is also shown in detail how Galway's algorithm may be applied to the non-iterative analysis technique. Hand load data from the calibration of a six-component force balance is used to illustrate the application of the original and modified tare load prediction method. During the analysis of the data both the iterative and the non-iterative analysis technique were applied. Overall, predicted tare loads for combinations of the two tare load prediction methods and the two balance data analysis techniques showed excellent agreement as long as the tare load iterations converged. The modified algorithm, however, appears to have an advantage over the original algorithm when absolute voltage measurements of gage outputs are processed using the non-iterative analysis technique. In these situations only the modified algorithm converged because it uses an exact solution of the intermediate non-linear tare load estimate for the tare load iteration.

Financial Distress Prediction using Linear Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, Noviyanti; Wibowo, Wahyu

2018-03-01

A financial difficulty is the early stages before the bankruptcy. Bankruptcies caused by the financial distress can be seen from the financial statements of the company. The ability to predict financial distress became an important research topic because it can provide early warning for the company. In addition, predicting financial distress is also beneficial for investors and creditors. This research will be made the prediction model of financial distress at industrial companies in Indonesia by comparing the performance of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) combined with variable selection technique. The result of this research is prediction model based on hybrid Stepwise-SVM obtains better balance among fitting ability, generalization ability and model stability than the other models.

Global analysis of bacterial transcription factors to predict cellular target processes.

PubMed

Doerks, Tobias; Andrade, Miguel A; Lathe, Warren; von Mering, Christian; Bork, Peer

2004-03-01

Whole-genome sequences are now available for >100 bacterial species, giving unprecedented power to comparative genomics approaches. We have applied genome-context methods to predict target processes that are regulated by transcription factors (TFs). Of 128 orthologous groups of proteins annotated as TFs, to date, 36 are functionally uncharacterized; in our analysis we predict a probable cellular target process or biochemical pathway for half of these functionally uncharacterized TFs.

Gaze distribution analysis and saliency prediction across age groups.

PubMed

Krishna, Onkar; Helo, Andrea; Rämä, Pia; Aizawa, Kiyoharu

2018-01-01

Knowledge of the human visual system helps to develop better computational models of visual attention. State-of-the-art models have been developed to mimic the visual attention system of young adults that, however, largely ignore the variations that occur with age. In this paper, we investigated how visual scene processing changes with age and we propose an age-adapted framework that helps to develop a computational model that can predict saliency across different age groups. Our analysis uncovers how the explorativeness of an observer varies with age, how well saliency maps of an age group agree with fixation points of observers from the same or different age groups, and how age influences the center bias tendency. We analyzed the eye movement behavior of 82 observers belonging to four age groups while they explored visual scenes. Explorative- ness was quantified in terms of the entropy of a saliency map, and area under the curve (AUC) metrics was used to quantify the agreement analysis and the center bias tendency. Analysis results were used to develop age adapted saliency models. Our results suggest that the proposed age-adapted saliency model outperforms existing saliency models in predicting the regions of interest across age groups.

Cluster analysis as a prediction tool for pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Banjari, Ines; Kenjerić, Daniela; Šolić, Krešimir; Mandić, Milena L

2015-03-01

Considering specific physiology changes during gestation and thinking of pregnancy as a "critical window", classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy can be considered as crucial. The paper demonstrates the use of a method based on an approach from intelligent data mining, cluster analysis. Cluster analysis method is a statistical method which makes possible to group individuals based on sets of identifying variables. The method was chosen in order to determine possibility for classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy to analyze unknown correlations between different variables so that the certain outcomes could be predicted. 222 pregnant women from two general obstetric offices' were recruited. The main orient was set on characteristics of these pregnant women: their age, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and haemoglobin value. Cluster analysis gained a 94.1% classification accuracy rate with three branch- es or groups of pregnant women showing statistically significant correlations with pregnancy outcomes. The results are showing that pregnant women both of older age and higher pre-pregnancy BMI have a significantly higher incidence of delivering baby of higher birth weight but they gain significantly less weight during pregnancy. Their babies are also longer, and these women have significantly higher probability for complications during pregnancy (gestosis) and higher probability of induced or caesarean delivery. We can conclude that the cluster analysis method can appropriately classify pregnant women at early pregnancy to predict certain outcomes.

Prediction of advertisement preference by fusing EEG response and sentiment analysis.

PubMed

Gauba, Himaanshu; Kumar, Pradeep; Roy, Partha Pratim; Singh, Priyanka; Dogra, Debi Prosad; Raman, Balasubramanian

2017-08-01

This paper presents a novel approach to predict rating of video-advertisements based on a multimodal framework combining physiological analysis of the user and global sentiment-rating available on the internet. We have fused Electroencephalogram (EEG) waves of user and corresponding global textual comments of the video to understand the user's preference more precisely. In our framework, the users were asked to watch the video-advertisement and simultaneously EEG signals were recorded. Valence scores were obtained using self-report for each video. A higher valence corresponds to intrinsic attractiveness of the user. Furthermore, the multimedia data that comprised of the comments posted by global viewers, were retrieved and processed using Natural Language Processing (NLP) technique for sentiment analysis. Textual contents from review comments were analyzed to obtain a score to understand sentiment nature of the video. A regression technique based on Random forest was used to predict the rating of an advertisement using EEG data. Finally, EEG based rating is combined with NLP-based sentiment score to improve the overall prediction. The study was carried out using 15 video clips of advertisements available online. Twenty five participants were involved in our study to analyze our proposed system. The results are encouraging and these suggest that the proposed multimodal approach can achieve lower RMSE in rating prediction as compared to the prediction using only EEG data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic wake prediction and visualization with uncertainty analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holforty, Wendy L. (Inventor); Powell, J. David (Inventor)

2005-01-01

A dynamic wake avoidance system utilizes aircraft and atmospheric parameters readily available in flight to model and predict airborne wake vortices in real time. A novel combination of algorithms allows for a relatively simple yet robust wake model to be constructed based on information extracted from a broadcast. The system predicts the location and movement of the wake based on the nominal wake model and correspondingly performs an uncertainty analysis on the wake model to determine a wake hazard zone (no fly zone), which comprises a plurality of wake planes, each moving independently from another. The system selectively adjusts dimensions of each wake plane to minimize spatial and temporal uncertainty, thereby ensuring that the actual wake is within the wake hazard zone. The predicted wake hazard zone is communicated in real time directly to a user via a realistic visual representation. In an example, the wake hazard zone is visualized on a 3-D flight deck display to enable a pilot to visualize or see a neighboring aircraft as well as its wake. The system substantially enhances the pilot's situational awareness and allows for a further safe decrease in spacing, which could alleviate airport and airspace congestion.

Operational planning using Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Alison; Kirtman, Benjamin; Harrison, Scott; Gorman, Joe

2016-05-01

The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that can produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics is designing the Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles, such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We evaluated thirty years of forecasts using machine learning to select predictions for an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process.

Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lalonde, Michel, E-mail: mlalonde15@rogers.com; Wassenaar, Richard; Wells, R. Glenn

2014-07-15

Purpose: Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. Methods: Aboutmore » 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Results: Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stell, Laurel

2010-01-01

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Prediction of neonatal respiratory morbidity by quantitative ultrasound lung texture analysis: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Palacio, Montse; Bonet-Carne, Elisenda; Cobo, Teresa; Perez-Moreno, Alvaro; Sabrià, Joan; Richter, Jute; Kacerovsky, Marian; Jacobsson, Bo; García-Posada, Raúl A; Bugatto, Fernando; Santisteve, Ramon; Vives, Àngels; Parra-Cordero, Mauro; Hernandez-Andrade, Edgar; Bartha, José Luis; Carretero-Lucena, Pilar; Tan, Kai Lit; Cruz-Martínez, Rogelio; Burke, Minke; Vavilala, Suseela; Iruretagoyena, Igor; Delgado, Juan Luis; Schenone, Mauro; Vilanova, Josep; Botet, Francesc; Yeo, George S H; Hyett, Jon; Deprest, Jan; Romero, Roberto; Gratacos, Eduard

2017-08-01

Prediction of neonatal respiratory morbidity may be useful to plan delivery in complicated pregnancies. The limited predictive performance of the current diagnostic tests together with the risks of an invasive procedure restricts the use of fetal lung maturity assessment. The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of quantitative ultrasound texture analysis of the fetal lung (quantusFLM) to predict neonatal respiratory morbidity in preterm and early-term (<39.0 weeks) deliveries. This was a prospective multicenter study conducted in 20 centers worldwide. Fetal lung ultrasound images were obtained at 25.0-38.6 weeks of gestation within 48 hours of delivery, stored in Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine format, and analyzed with quantusFLM. Physicians were blinded to the analysis. At delivery, perinatal outcomes and the occurrence of neonatal respiratory morbidity, defined as either respiratory distress syndrome or transient tachypnea of the newborn, were registered. The performance of the ultrasound texture analysis test to predict neonatal respiratory morbidity was evaluated. A total of 883 images were collected, but 17.3% were discarded because of poor image quality or exclusion criteria, leaving 730 observations for the final analysis. The prevalence of neonatal respiratory morbidity was 13.8% (101 of 730). The quantusFLM predicted neonatal respiratory morbidity with a sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 74.3% (75 of 101), 88.6% (557 of 629), 51.0% (75 of 147), and 95.5% (557 of 583), respectively. Accuracy was 86.5% (632 of 730) and positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.5 and 0.3, respectively. The quantusFLM predicted neonatal respiratory morbidity with an accuracy similar to that previously reported for other tests with the advantage of being a noninvasive technique. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Lisa

2014-01-01

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

Comparison of three-dimensional fluorescence analysis methods for predicting formation of trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids.

PubMed

Peleato, Nicolás M; Andrews, Robert C

2015-01-01

This work investigated the application of several fluorescence excitation-emission matrix analysis methods as natural organic matter (NOM) indicators for use in predicting the formation of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). Waters from four different sources (two rivers and two lakes) were subjected to jar testing followed by 24hr disinfection by-product formation tests using chlorine. NOM was quantified using three common measures: dissolved organic carbon, ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm, and specific ultraviolet absorbance as well as by principal component analysis, peak picking, and parallel factor analysis of fluorescence spectra. Based on multi-linear modeling of THMs and HAAs, principle component (PC) scores resulted in the lowest mean squared prediction error of cross-folded test sets (THMs: 43.7 (μg/L)(2), HAAs: 233.3 (μg/L)(2)). Inclusion of principle components representative of protein-like material significantly decreased prediction error for both THMs and HAAs. Parallel factor analysis did not identify a protein-like component and resulted in prediction errors similar to traditional NOM surrogates as well as fluorescence peak picking. These results support the value of fluorescence excitation-emission matrix-principal component analysis as a suitable NOM indicator in predicting the formation of THMs and HAAs for the water sources studied. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

On the predictive information criteria for model determination in seismic hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varini, Elisa; Rotondi, Renata

2016-04-01

estimate, but it is hardly applicable to data which are not independent given parameters (Watanabe, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 2010). A solution is given by Ando and Tsay criterion where the joint density may be decomposed into the product of the conditional densities (Ando and Tsay, Int. J. Forecast., 2010). The above mentioned criteria are global summary measures of model performance, but more detailed analysis could be required to discover the reasons for poor global performance. In this latter case, a retrospective predictive analysis is performed on each individual observation. In this study we performed the Bayesian analysis of Italian data sets by four versions of a long-term hazard model known as the stress release model (Vere-Jones, J. Physics Earth, 1978; Bebbington and Harte, Geophys. J. Int., 2003; Varini and Rotondi, Environ. Ecol. Stat., 2015). Then we illustrate the results on their performance evaluated by Bayes Factor, predictive information criteria and retrospective predictive analysis.

Environmental Analysis and Prediction of Transmission Loss in the Region of the New England Shelfbreak

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

Environmental Analysis and Prediction of Transmission Loss in the Region of the New England Shelfbreak By Heather Rend Hornick B.S., University of... Analysis and Prediction of Transmission Loss in the Region of the New England Shelfbreak 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER... analysis of the ocean sound speed field defined a set of perturbations to the background sound speed field for each of the NEST Scanfish surveys

Performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Guo, Rui; Ma, Lu; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

2017-12-01

Hematoma expansion is independently associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Blend sign is a simple predictor for hematoma expansion on non-contrast computed tomography. However, its accuracy for predicting hematoma expansion is inconsistent in previous studies. This meta-analysis is aimed to systematically assess the performance of blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was conducted. Original studies about predictive accuracy of blend sign for hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve was constructed. Publication bias was assessed by Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. A total of 5 studies with 2248 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.28, 0.92, 3.4 and 0.78, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.85. No significant publication bias was found. This meta-analysis demonstrates that blend sign is a useful predictor with high specificity for hematoma expansion in ICH. Further studies with larger sample size are still necessary to verify the accuracy of blend sign for predicting hematoma expansion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical Analysis of the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop CFD Solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, Joseph H.; Hemsch, Michael J.

2007-01-01

The first AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW), held in June 2001, evaluated the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD codes. The code-to-code scatter was more than an order of magnitude larger than desired for design and experimental validation of cruise conditions for a subsonic transport configuration. The second AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2003, emphasized the determination of installed pylon-nacelle drag increments and grid refinement studies. The code-to-code scatter was significantly reduced compared to the first DPW, but still larger than desired. However, grid refinement studies showed no significant improvement in code-to-code scatter with increasing grid refinement. The third AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2006, focused on the determination of installed side-of-body fairing drag increments and grid refinement studies for clean attached flow on wing alone configurations and for separated flow on the DLR-F6 subsonic transport model. This report compares the transonic cruise prediction results of the second and third workshops using statistical analysis.

Comparison of Prediction Model for Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction Using Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Zeng, Fangfang; Li, Zhongtao; Yu, Xiaoling; Zhou, Linuo

2013-01-01

Background This study aimed to develop the artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable logistic regression (LR) analyses for prediction modeling of cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population, and compare the prediction models using the two approaches. Methods and Materials We analyzed a previous dataset based on a Chinese population sample consisting of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN and LR analysis, and were tested in the validation set. Performances of these prediction models were then compared. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with the prevalence of CA dysfunction (P<0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.758 (95% CI 0.724–0.793) for LR and 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for ANN analysis, but noninferiority result was found (P<0.001). The similar results were found in comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values in the prediction models between the LR and ANN analyses. Conclusion The prediction models for CA dysfunction were developed using ANN and LR. ANN and LR are two effective tools for developing prediction models based on our dataset. PMID:23940593

Analysis backpropagation methods with neural network for prediction of children's ability in psychomotoric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhari, F.; Dhany, H. W.; Zarlis, M.; Sutarman

2018-03-01

A good age in optimizing aspects of development is at the age of 4-6 years, namely with psychomotor development. Psychomotor is broader, more difficult to monitor but has a meaningful value for the child's life because it directly affects his behavior and deeds. Therefore, there is a problem to predict the child's ability level based on psychomotor. This analysis uses backpropagation method analysis with artificial neural network to predict the ability of the child on the psychomotor aspect by generating predictions of the child's ability on psychomotor and testing there is a mean squared error (MSE) value at the end of the training of 0.001. There are 30% of children aged 4-6 years have a good level of psychomotor ability, excellent, less good, and good enough.

A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

2016-03-01

Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

Quasi-closed phase forward-backward linear prediction analysis of speech for accurate formant detection and estimation.

PubMed

Gowda, Dhananjaya; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo

2017-09-01

Recently, a quasi-closed phase (QCP) analysis of speech signals for accurate glottal inverse filtering was proposed. However, the QCP analysis which belongs to the family of temporally weighted linear prediction (WLP) methods uses the conventional forward type of sample prediction. This may not be the best choice especially in computing WLP models with a hard-limiting weighting function. A sample selective minimization of the prediction error in WLP reduces the effective number of samples available within a given window frame. To counter this problem, a modified quasi-closed phase forward-backward (QCP-FB) analysis is proposed, wherein each sample is predicted based on its past as well as future samples thereby utilizing the available number of samples more effectively. Formant detection and estimation experiments on synthetic vowels generated using a physical modeling approach as well as natural speech utterances show that the proposed QCP-FB method yields statistically significant improvements over the conventional linear prediction and QCP methods.

Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

Analysis of algae growth mechanism and water bloom prediction under the effect of multi-affecting factor.

PubMed

Wang, Li; Wang, Xiaoyi; Jin, Xuebo; Xu, Jiping; Zhang, Huiyan; Yu, Jiabin; Sun, Qian; Gao, Chong; Wang, Lingbin

2017-03-01

The formation process of algae is described inaccurately and water blooms are predicted with a low precision by current methods. In this paper, chemical mechanism of algae growth is analyzed, and a correlation analysis of chlorophyll-a and algal density is conducted by chemical measurement. Taking into account the influence of multi-factors on algae growth and water blooms, the comprehensive prediction method combined with multivariate time series and intelligent model is put forward in this paper. Firstly, through the process of photosynthesis, the main factors that affect the reproduction of the algae are analyzed. A compensation prediction method of multivariate time series analysis based on neural network and Support Vector Machine has been put forward which is combined with Kernel Principal Component Analysis to deal with dimension reduction of the influence factors of blooms. Then, Genetic Algorithm is applied to improve the generalization ability of the BP network and Least Squares Support Vector Machine. Experimental results show that this method could better compensate the prediction model of multivariate time series analysis which is an effective way to improve the description accuracy of algae growth and prediction precision of water blooms.

IsoMAP (Isoscape Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, C. C.; Bowen, G. J.; Zhang, T.; Zhao, L.; West, J. B.; Liu, Z.; Rapolu, N.

2009-12-01

IsoMAP is a TeraGrid-based web portal aimed at building the infrastructure that brings together distributed multi-scale and multi-format geospatial datasets to enable statistical analysis and modeling of environmental isotopes. A typical workflow enabled by the portal includes (1) data source exploration and selection, (2) statistical analysis and model development; (3) predictive simulation of isotope distributions using models developed in (1) and (2); (4) analysis and interpretation of simulated spatial isotope distributions (e.g., comparison with independent observations, pattern analysis). The gridded models and data products created by one user can be shared and reused among users within the portal, enabling collaboration and knowledge transfer. This infrastructure and the research it fosters can lead to fundamental changes in our knowledge of the water cycle and ecological and biogeochemical processes through analysis of network-based isotope data, but it will be important A) that those with whom the data and models are shared can be sure of the origin, quality, inputs, and processing history of these products, and B) the system is agile and intuitive enough to facilitate this sharing (rather than just ‘allow’ it). IsoMAP researchers are therefore building into the portal’s architecture several components meant to increase the amount of metadata about users’ products and to repurpose those metadata to make sharing and discovery more intuitive and robust to both expected, professional users as well as unforeseeable populations from other sectors.

A web server for analysis, comparison and prediction of protein ligand binding sites.

PubMed

Singh, Harinder; Srivastava, Hemant Kumar; Raghava, Gajendra P S

2016-03-25

One of the major challenges in the field of system biology is to understand the interaction between a wide range of proteins and ligands. In the past, methods have been developed for predicting binding sites in a protein for a limited number of ligands. In order to address this problem, we developed a web server named 'LPIcom' to facilitate users in understanding protein-ligand interaction. Analysis, comparison and prediction modules are available in the "LPIcom' server to predict protein-ligand interacting residues for 824 ligands. Each ligand must have at least 30 protein binding sites in PDB. Analysis module of the server can identify residues preferred in interaction and binding motif for a given ligand; for example residues glycine, lysine and arginine are preferred in ATP binding sites. Comparison module of the server allows comparing protein-binding sites of multiple ligands to understand the similarity between ligands based on their binding site. This module indicates that ATP, ADP and GTP ligands are in the same cluster and thus their binding sites or interacting residues exhibit a high level of similarity. Propensity-based prediction module has been developed for predicting ligand-interacting residues in a protein for more than 800 ligands. In addition, a number of web-based tools have been integrated to facilitate users in creating web logo and two-sample between ligand interacting and non-interacting residues. In summary, this manuscript presents a web-server for analysis of ligand interacting residue. This server is available for public use from URL http://crdd.osdd.net/raghava/lpicom .

Improvement of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) on Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jeong-Gyun; Jee, Joon-Bum

2017-04-01

Dangerous weather such as severe rain, heavy snow, drought and heat wave caused by climate change make more damage in the urban area that dense populated and industry areas. Urban areas, unlike the rural area, have big population and transportation, dense the buildings and fuel consumption. Anthropogenic factors such as road energy balance, the flow of air in the urban is unique meteorological phenomena. However several researches are in process about prediction of urban meteorology. ASAPS (Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System) predicts a severe weather with very short range (prediction with 6 hour) and high resolution (every hour with time and 1 km with space) on Seoul metropolitan area based on KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). This system configured three parts that make a background field (SUF5), analysis field (SU01) with observation and forecast field with high resolution (SUF1). In this study, we improve a high-resolution ASAPS model and perform a sensitivity test for the rainfall case. The improvement of ASAPS include model domain configuration, high resolution topographic data and data assimilation with WISE observation data.

Fusion of multiscale wavelet-based fractal analysis on retina image for stroke prediction.

PubMed

Che Azemin, M Z; Kumar, Dinesh K; Wong, T Y; Wang, J J; Kawasaki, R; Mitchell, P; Arjunan, Sridhar P

2010-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel method of analyzing retinal vasculature using Fourier Fractal Dimension to extract the complexity of the retinal vasculature enhanced at different wavelet scales. Logistic regression was used as a fusion method to model the classifier for 5-year stroke prediction. The efficacy of this technique has been tested using standard pattern recognition performance evaluation, Receivers Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis and medical prediction statistics, odds ratio. Stroke prediction model was developed using the proposed system.

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting

Analysis and Design of Fuselage Structures Including Residual Strength Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F.

1998-01-01

The goal of this research project is to develop and assess methodologies for the design and analysis of fuselage structures accounting for residual strength. Two primary objectives are included in this research activity: development of structural analysis methodology for predicting residual strength of fuselage shell-type structures; and the development of accurate, efficient analysis, design and optimization tool for fuselage shell structures. Assessment of these tools for robustness, efficient, and usage in a fuselage shell design environment will be integrated with these two primary research objectives.

Reliability Prediction Analysis: Airborne System Results and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Nuno; Lopes, Rui

2013-09-01

This article presents the results of several reliability prediction analysis for aerospace components, made by both methodologies, the 217F and the 217Plus. Supporting and complementary activities are described, as well as the differences concerning the results and the applications of both methodologies that are summarized in a set of lessons learned that are very useful for RAMS and Safety Prediction practitioners.The effort that is required for these activities is also an important point that is discussed, as is the end result and their interpretation/impact on the system design.The article concludes while positioning these activities and methodologies in an overall process for space and aeronautics equipment/components certification, and highlighting their advantages. Some good practices have also been summarized and some reuse rules have been laid down.

Seventy-meter antenna performance predictions: GTD analysis compared with traditional ray-tracing methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schredder, J. M.

1988-01-01

A comparative analysis was performed, using both the Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD) and traditional pathlength error analysis techniques, for predicting RF antenna gain performance and pointing corrections. The NASA/JPL 70 meter antenna with its shaped surface was analyzed for gravity loading over the range of elevation angles. Also analyzed were the effects of lateral and axial displacements of the subreflector. Significant differences were noted between the predictions of the two methods, in the effect of subreflector displacements, and in the optimal subreflector positions to focus a gravity-deformed main reflector. The results are of relevance to future design procedure.

Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.

2014-01-01

All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.

New Computational Methods for the Prediction and Analysis of Helicopter Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawn, Roger C.; Oliker, Leonid; Biswas, Rupak

1996-01-01

This paper describes several new methods to predict and analyze rotorcraft noise. These methods are: 1) a combined computational fluid dynamics and Kirchhoff scheme for far-field noise predictions, 2) parallel computer implementation of the Kirchhoff integrations, 3) audio and visual rendering of the computed acoustic predictions over large far-field regions, and 4) acoustic tracebacks to the Kirchhoff surface to pinpoint the sources of the rotor noise. The paper describes each method and presents sample results for three test cases. The first case consists of in-plane high-speed impulsive noise and the other two cases show idealized parallel and oblique blade-vortex interactions. The computed results show good agreement with available experimental data but convey much more information about the far-field noise propagation. When taken together, these new analysis methods exploit the power of new computer technologies and offer the potential to significantly improve our prediction and understanding of rotorcraft noise.

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macwilkinson, D. G.; Blackerby, W. T.; Paterson, J. H.

1974-01-01

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Analysis of cardiovascular oscillations: A new approach to the early prediction of pre-eclampsia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malberg, H.; Bauernschmitt, R.; Voss, A.; Walther, T.; Faber, R.; Stepan, H.; Wessel, N.

2007-03-01

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a serious disorder with high morbidity and mortality occurring during pregnancy; 3%-5% of all pregnant women are affected. Early prediction is still insufficient in clinical practice. Although most pre-eclamptic patients show pathological uterine perfusion in the second trimester, this parameter has a positive predictive accuracy of only 30%, which makes it unsuitable for early, reliable prediction. The study is based on the hypothesis that alterations in cardiovascular regulatory behavior can be used to predict PE. Ninety-six pregnant women in whom Doppler investigation detected perfusion disorders of the uterine arteries were included in the study. Twenty-four of these pregnant women developed PE after the 30th week of gestation. During pregnancy, additional several noninvasive continuous blood pressure recordings were made over 30 min under resting conditions by means of a finger cuff. The time series extracted of systolic as well as diastolic beat-to-beat pressures and the heart rate were studied by variability and coupling analysis to find predictive factors preceding genesis of the disease. In the period between the 18th and 26th weeks of pregnancy, three special variability and baroreflex parameters were able to predict PE several weeks before clinical manifestation. Discriminant function analysis of these parameters was able to predict PE with a sensitivity and specificity of 87.5% and a positive predictive value of 70%. The combined clinical assessment of uterine perfusion and cardiovascular variability demonstrates the best current prediction several weeks before clinical manifestation of PE.

Development of advanced structural analysis methodologies for predicting widespread fatigue damage in aircraft structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Starnes, James H., Jr.; Newman, James C., Jr.

1995-01-01

NASA is developing a 'tool box' that includes a number of advanced structural analysis computer codes which, taken together, represent the comprehensive fracture mechanics capability required to predict the onset of widespread fatigue damage. These structural analysis tools have complementary and specialized capabilities ranging from a finite-element-based stress-analysis code for two- and three-dimensional built-up structures with cracks to a fatigue and fracture analysis code that uses stress-intensity factors and material-property data found in 'look-up' tables or from equations. NASA is conducting critical experiments necessary to verify the predictive capabilities of the codes, and these tests represent a first step in the technology-validation and industry-acceptance processes. NASA has established cooperative programs with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate the comprehensive transfer of this technology by making these advanced structural analysis codes available to industry.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions From the Fifth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, Joseph H.

2013-01-01

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using a common grid sequence and multiple turbulence models for the June 2012 fifth Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing-body previously used for the 4th Drag Prediction Workshop. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Analysis of Orbital Lifetime Prediction Parameters in Preparation for Post-Mission Disposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Ha-Yeon; Kim, Hae-Dong; Seong, Jae-Dong

2015-12-01

Atmospheric drag force is an important source of perturbation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbit satellites, and solar activity is a major factor for changes in atmospheric density. In particular, the orbital lifetime of a satellite varies with changes in solar activity, so care must be taken in predicting the remaining orbital lifetime during preparation for post-mission disposal. In this paper, the System Tool Kit (STK®) Long-term Orbit Propagator is used to analyze the changes in orbital lifetime predictions with respect to solar activity. In addition, the STK® Lifetime tool is used to analyze the change in orbital lifetime with respect to solar flux data generation, which is needed for the orbital lifetime calculation, and its control on the drag coefficient control. Analysis showed that the application of the most recent solar flux file within the Lifetime tool gives a predicted trend that is closest to the actual orbit. We also examine the effect of the drag coefficient, by performing a comparative analysis between varying and constant coefficients in terms of solar activity intensities.

Guidelines for reporting and using prediction tools for genetic variation analysis.

PubMed

Vihinen, Mauno

2013-02-01

Computational prediction methods are widely used for the analysis of human genome sequence variants and their effects on gene/protein function, splice site aberration, pathogenicity, and disease risk. New methods are frequently developed. We believe that guidelines are essential for those writing articles about new prediction methods, as well as for those applying these tools in their research, so that the necessary details are reported. This will enable readers to gain the full picture of technical information, performance, and interpretation of results, and to facilitate comparisons of related methods. Here, we provide instructions on how to describe new methods, report datasets, and assess the performance of predictive tools. We also discuss what details of predictor implementation are essential for authors to understand. Similarly, these guidelines for the use of predictors provide instructions on what needs to be delineated in the text, as well as how researchers can avoid unwarranted conclusions. They are applicable to most prediction methods currently utilized. By applying these guidelines, authors will help reviewers, editors, and readers to more fully comprehend prediction methods and their use. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Understanding and predicting binding between human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) and peptides by network analysis.

PubMed

Luo, Heng; Ye, Hao; Ng, Hui; Shi, Leming; Tong, Weida; Mattes, William; Mendrick, Donna; Hong, Huixiao

2015-01-01

As the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) are one of the most polymorphic genes in humans. Patients carrying certain HLA alleles may develop adverse drug reactions (ADRs) after taking specific drugs. Peptides play an important role in HLA related ADRs as they are the necessary co-binders of HLAs with drugs. Many experimental data have been generated for understanding HLA-peptide binding. However, efficiently utilizing the data for understanding and accurately predicting HLA-peptide binding is challenging. Therefore, we developed a network analysis based method to understand and predict HLA-peptide binding. Qualitative Class I HLA-peptide binding data were harvested and prepared from four major databases. An HLA-peptide binding network was constructed from this dataset and modules were identified by the fast greedy modularity optimization algorithm. To examine the significance of signals in the yielded models, the modularity was compared with the modularity values generated from 1,000 random networks. The peptides and HLAs in the modules were characterized by similarity analysis. The neighbor-edges based and unbiased leverage algorithm (Nebula) was developed for predicting HLA-peptide binding. Leave-one-out (LOO) validations and two-fold cross-validations were conducted to evaluate the performance of Nebula using the constructed HLA-peptide binding network. Nine modules were identified from analyzing the HLA-peptide binding network with a highest modularity compared to all the random networks. Peptide length and functional side chains of amino acids at certain positions of the peptides were different among the modules. HLA sequences were module dependent to some extent. Nebula archived an overall prediction accuracy of 0.816 in the LOO validations and average accuracy of 0.795 in the two-fold cross-validations and outperformed the method reported in the literature. Network analysis is a useful approach for analyzing large and

Understanding and predicting binding between human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) and peptides by network analysis

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background As the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) are one of the most polymorphic genes in humans. Patients carrying certain HLA alleles may develop adverse drug reactions (ADRs) after taking specific drugs. Peptides play an important role in HLA related ADRs as they are the necessary co-binders of HLAs with drugs. Many experimental data have been generated for understanding HLA-peptide binding. However, efficiently utilizing the data for understanding and accurately predicting HLA-peptide binding is challenging. Therefore, we developed a network analysis based method to understand and predict HLA-peptide binding. Methods Qualitative Class I HLA-peptide binding data were harvested and prepared from four major databases. An HLA-peptide binding network was constructed from this dataset and modules were identified by the fast greedy modularity optimization algorithm. To examine the significance of signals in the yielded models, the modularity was compared with the modularity values generated from 1,000 random networks. The peptides and HLAs in the modules were characterized by similarity analysis. The neighbor-edges based and unbiased leverage algorithm (Nebula) was developed for predicting HLA-peptide binding. Leave-one-out (LOO) validations and two-fold cross-validations were conducted to evaluate the performance of Nebula using the constructed HLA-peptide binding network. Results Nine modules were identified from analyzing the HLA-peptide binding network with a highest modularity compared to all the random networks. Peptide length and functional side chains of amino acids at certain positions of the peptides were different among the modules. HLA sequences were module dependent to some extent. Nebula archived an overall prediction accuracy of 0.816 in the LOO validations and average accuracy of 0.795 in the two-fold cross-validations and outperformed the method reported in the literature. Conclusions Network analysis is a

Effects of dose reduction on bone strength prediction using finite element analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitha, D.; Subburaj, Karupppasamy; Mei, Kai; Kopp, Felix K.; Foehr, Peter; Noel, Peter B.; Kirschke, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas

2016-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of dose reduction, by means of tube exposure reduction, on bone strength prediction from finite-element (FE) analysis. Fresh thoracic mid-vertebrae specimens (n = 11) were imaged, using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT), at different intensities of X-ray tube exposures (80, 150, 220 and 500 mAs). Bone mineral density (BMD) was estimated from the mid-slice of each specimen from MDCT images. Differences in image quality and geometry of each specimen were measured. FE analysis was performed on all specimens to predict fracture load. Paired t-tests were used to compare the results obtained, using the highest CT dose (500 mAs) as reference. Dose reduction had no significant impact on FE-predicted fracture loads, with significant correlations obtained with reference to 500 mAs, for 80 mAs (R2  = 0.997, p < 0.001), 150 mAs (R2 = 0.998, p < 0.001) and 220 mAs (R2 = 0.987, p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in volume quantification between the different doses examined. CT imaging radiation dose could be reduced substantially to 64% with no impact on strength estimates obtained from FE analysis. Reduced CT dose will enable early diagnosis and advanced monitoring of osteoporosis and associated fracture risk.

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

Simulation analysis of adaptive cruise prediction control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Cui, Sheng Min

2017-09-01

Predictive control is suitable for multi-variable and multi-constraint system control.In order to discuss the effect of predictive control on the vehicle longitudinal motion, this paper establishes the expected spacing model by combining variable pitch spacing and the of safety distance strategy. The model predictive control theory and the optimization method based on secondary planning are designed to obtain and track the best expected acceleration trajectory quickly. Simulation models are established including predictive and adaptive fuzzy control. Simulation results show that predictive control can realize the basic function of the system while ensuring the safety. The application of predictive and fuzzy adaptive algorithm in cruise condition indicates that the predictive control effect is better.

Anti-inflammatory drugs and prediction of new structures by comparative analysis.

PubMed

Bartzatt, Ronald

2012-01-01

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a group of agents important for their analgesic, anti-inflammatory, and antipyretic properties. This study presents several approaches to predict and elucidate new molecular structures of NSAIDs based on 36 known and proven anti-inflammatory compounds. Based on 36 known NSAIDs the mean value of Log P is found to be 3.338 (standard deviation= 1.237), mean value of polar surface area is 63.176 Angstroms2 (standard deviation = 20.951 A2), and the mean value of molecular weight is 292.665 (standard deviation = 55.627). Nine molecular properties are determined for these 36 NSAID agents, including Log P, number of -OH and -NHn, violations of Rule of 5, number of rotatable bonds, and number of oxygens and nitrogens. Statistical analysis of these nine molecular properties provides numerical parameters to conform to in the design of novel NSAID drug candidates. Multiple regression analysis is accomplished using these properties of 36 agents followed with examples of predicted molecular weight based on minimum and maximum property values. Hierarchical cluster analysis indicated that licofelone, tolfenamic acid, meclofenamic acid, droxicam, and aspirin are substantially distinct from all remaining NSAIDs. Analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) produced R = 0.4947, which indicates low to moderate level of dissimilarity between these 36 NSAIDs. Non-hierarchical K-means cluster analysis separated the 36 NSAIDs into four groups having members of greatest similarity. Likewise, discriminant analysis divided the 36 agents into two groups indicating the greatest level of distinction (discrimination) based on nine properties. These two multivariate methods together provide investigators a means to compare and elucidate novel drug designs to 36 proven compounds and ascertain to which of those are most analogous in pharmacodynamics. In addition, artificial neural network modeling is demonstrated as an approach to predict numerous molecular

Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

2017-08-01

This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

Predictability Analysis of PM10 Concentrations in Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferenczi, Zita

2013-04-01

Climate, weather and air quality may have harmful effects on human health and environment. Over the past few hundred years we had to face the changes in climate in parallel with the changes in air quality. These observed changes in climate, weather and air quality continuously interact with each other: pollutants are changing the climate, thus changing the weather, but climate also has impacts on air quality. The increasing number of extreme weather situations may be a result of climate change, which could create favourable conditions for rising of pollutant concentrations. Air quality in Budapest is determined by domestic and traffic emissions combined with the meteorological conditions. In some cases, the effect of long-range transport could also be essential. While the time variability of the industrial and traffic emissions is not significant, the domestic emissions increase in winter season. In recent years, PM10 episodes have caused the most critical air quality problems in Budapest, especially in winter. In Budapest, an air quality network of 11 stations detects the concentration values of different pollutants hourly. The Hungarian Meteorological Service has developed an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The system forecasts the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3) for two days in advance. In this work we used meteorological parameters and PM10 data detected by the stations of the air quality network, as well as the forecasted PM10 values of the air quality prediction model system. In this work we present the evaluation of PM10 predictions in the last two years and the most important meteorological parameters affecting PM10 concentration. The results of this analysis determine the effect of the meteorological parameters and the emission of aerosol particles on the PM10 concentration values as well as the limits of this prediction system.

Can histogram analysis of MR images predict aggressiveness in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors?

PubMed

De Robertis, Riccardo; Maris, Bogdan; Cardobi, Nicolò; Tinazzi Martini, Paolo; Gobbo, Stefano; Capelli, Paola; Ortolani, Silvia; Cingarlini, Sara; Paiella, Salvatore; Landoni, Luca; Butturini, Giovanni; Regi, Paolo; Scarpa, Aldo; Tortora, Giampaolo; D'Onofrio, Mirko

2018-06-01

To evaluate MRI derived whole-tumour histogram analysis parameters in predicting pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm (panNEN) grade and aggressiveness. Pre-operative MR of 42 consecutive patients with panNEN >1 cm were retrospectively analysed. T1-/T2-weighted images and ADC maps were analysed. Histogram-derived parameters were compared to histopathological features using the Mann-Whitney U test. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed by ROC-AUC analysis; sensitivity and specificity were assessed for each histogram parameter. ADC entropy was significantly higher in G2-3 tumours with ROC-AUC 0.757; sensitivity and specificity were 83.3 % (95 % CI: 61.2-94.5) and 61.1 % (95 % CI: 36.1-81.7). ADC kurtosis was higher in panNENs with vascular involvement, nodal and hepatic metastases (p= .008, .021 and .008; ROC-AUC= 0.820, 0.709 and 0.820); sensitivity and specificity were: 85.7/74.3 % (95 % CI: 42-99.2 /56.4-86.9), 36.8/96.5 % (95 % CI: 17.2-61.4 /76-99.8) and 100/62.8 % (95 % CI: 56.1-100/44.9-78.1). No significant differences between groups were found for other histogram-derived parameters (p >.05). Whole-tumour histogram analysis of ADC maps may be helpful in predicting tumour grade, vascular involvement, nodal and liver metastases in panNENs. ADC entropy and ADC kurtosis are the most accurate parameters for identification of panNENs with malignant behaviour. • Whole-tumour ADC histogram analysis can predict aggressiveness in pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms. • ADC entropy and kurtosis are higher in aggressive tumours. • ADC histogram analysis can quantify tumour diffusion heterogeneity. • Non-invasive quantification of tumour heterogeneity can provide adjunctive information for prognostication.

Quantitative structure-property relationship analysis for the retention index of fragrance-like compounds on a polar stationary phase.

PubMed

Rojas, Cristian; Duchowicz, Pablo R; Tripaldi, Piercosimo; Pis Diez, Reinaldo

2015-11-27

A quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) was developed for modeling the retention index of 1184 flavor and fragrance compounds measured using a Carbowax 20M glass capillary gas chromatography column. The 4885 molecular descriptors were calculated using Dragon software, and then were simultaneously analyzed through multivariable linear regression analysis using the replacement method (RM) variable subset selection technique. We proceeded in three steps, the first one by considering all descriptor blocks, the second one by excluding conformational descriptor blocks, and the last one by analyzing only 3D-descriptor families. The models were validated through an external test set of compounds. Cross-validation methods such as leave-one-out and leave-many-out were applied, together with Y-randomization and applicability domain analysis. The developed model was used to estimate the I of a set of 22 molecules. The results clearly suggest that 3D-descriptors do not offer relevant information for modeling the retention index, while a topological index such as the Randić-like index from reciprocal squared distance matrix has a high relevance for this purpose. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exact Analysis of Squared Cross-Validity Coefficient in Predictive Regression Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shieh, Gwowen

2009-01-01

In regression analysis, the notion of population validity is of theoretical interest for describing the usefulness of the underlying regression model, whereas the presumably more important concept of population cross-validity represents the predictive effectiveness for the regression equation in future research. It appears that the inference…

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dahl, Milo D.; Sharpe, Jacob A.

2014-01-01

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify deficiencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the measured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the definition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares fit of the predicted to the measured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new definition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Acoustic prediction methods for the NASA generalized advanced propeller analysis system (GAPAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padula, S. L.; Block, P. J. W.

1984-01-01

Classical methods of propeller performance analysis are coupled with state-of-the-art Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP:) techniques to yield a versatile design tool, the NASA Generalized Advanced Propeller Analysis System (GAPAS) for the novel quiet and efficient propellers. ANOPP is a collection of modular specialized programs. GAPAS as a whole addresses blade geometry and aerodynamics, rotor performance and loading, and subsonic propeller noise.

Factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus: decision-curve analysis.

PubMed

Kondo, M; Nagao, Y; Mahbub, M H; Tanabe, T; Tanizawa, Y

2018-04-29

To identify factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus, using decision-curve analysis. A retrospective cohort study was performed. The participants were 123 Japanese women with gestational diabetes who underwent 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests at 8-12 weeks after delivery. They were divided into a glucose intolerance and a normal glucose tolerance group based on postpartum oral glucose tolerance test results. Analysis of the pregnancy oral glucose tolerance test results showed predictive factors for postpartum glucose intolerance. We also evaluated the clinical usefulness of the prediction model based on decision-curve analysis. Of 123 women, 78 (63.4%) had normoglycaemia and 45 (36.6%) had glucose intolerance. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin and summation of glucose levels, assessed during pregnancy oral glucose tolerance tests (total glucose), to be independent risk factors for postpartum glucose intolerance. Evaluating the regression models, the best discrimination (area under the curve 0.725) was obtained using the basic model (i.e. age, family history of diabetes, BMI ≥25 kg/m 2 and use of insulin during pregnancy) plus insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin <1.1. Decision-curve analysis showed that combining insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin <1.1 with basic clinical information resulted in superior net benefits for prediction of postpartum glucose intolerance. Insulinogenic index/fasting immunoreactive insulin calculated using oral glucose tolerance test results during pregnancy is potentially useful for predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes. © 2018 Diabetes UK.

Conditions for Effective Application of Analysis of Symmetrically-Predicted Endogenous Subgroups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peck, Laura R.

2015-01-01

Several analytic strategies exist for opening up the "black box" to reveal more about what drives policy and program impacts. This article focuses on one of these strategies: the Analysis of Symmetrically-Predicted Endogenous Subgroups (ASPES). ASPES uses exogenous baseline data to identify endogenously-defined subgroups, keeping the…

Sex-Specific Differential Prediction of College Admission Tests: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Franziska T.; Schult, Johannes; Hell, Benedikt

2013-01-01

This is the first meta-analysis that investigates the differential prediction of undergraduate and graduate college admission tests for women and men. Findings on 130 independent samples representing 493,048 students are summarized. The underprediction of women's academic performance (d = 0.14) and the overprediction of men's academic performance…

Financial and Staffing Ratio Analysis: Predicting Fiscal Distress in School Districts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Robert Alan

1983-01-01

From analysis of data from 579 school districts it is concluded that financial ratios have the ability to forecast fiscal distress a year in advance. Liquidity ratios and salary and fringe benefit ratios were found to be strong forecasters, while per pupil expenditure data had little predictive value. (MJL)

Improvement of Quench Factor Analysis in Phase and Hardness Prediction of a Quenched Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kianezhad, M.; Sajjadi, S. A.

2013-05-01

The accurate prediction of alloys' properties introduced by heat treatment has been considered by many researchers. The advantages of such predictions are reduction of test trails and materials' consumption as well as time and energy saving. One of the most important methods to predict hardness in quenched steel parts is Quench Factor Analysis (QFA). Classical QFA is based on the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) equation. In this study, a modified form of the QFA based on the work by Rometsch et al. is compared with the classical QFA, and they are applied to prediction of hardness of steels. For this purpose, samples of CK60 steel were utilized as raw material. They were austenitized at 1103 K (830 °C). After quenching in different environments, they were cut and their hardness was determined. In addition, the hardness values of the samples were fitted using the classical and modified equations for the quench factor analysis and the results were compared. Results showed a significant improvement in fitted values of the hardness and proved the higher efficiency of the new method.

[A prediction model for internet game addiction in adolescents: using a decision tree analysis].

PubMed

Kim, Ki Sook; Kim, Kyung Hee

2010-06-01

This study was designed to build a theoretical frame to provide practical help to prevent and manage adolescent internet game addiction by developing a prediction model through a comprehensive analysis of related factors. The participants were 1,318 students studying in elementary, middle, and high schools in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, Korea. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS program. Decision Tree Analysis using the Clementine program was applied to build an optimum and significant prediction model to predict internet game addiction related to various factors, especially parent related factors. From the data analyses, the prediction model for factors related to internet game addiction presented with 5 pathways. Causative factors included gender, type of school, siblings, economic status, religion, time spent alone, gaming place, payment to Internet café, frequency, duration, parent's ability to use internet, occupation (mother), trust (father), expectations regarding adolescent's study (mother), supervising (both parents), rearing attitude (both parents). The results suggest preventive and managerial nursing programs for specific groups by path. Use of this predictive model can expand the role of school nurses, not only in counseling addicted adolescents but also, in developing and carrying out programs with parents and approaching adolescents individually through databases and computer programming.

Data analysis and noise prediction for the QF-1B experimental fan stage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bliss, D. B.; Chandiramani, K. L.; Piersol, A. G.

1976-01-01

The results of a fan noise data analysis and prediction effort using experimental data obtained from tests on the QF-1B research fan are described. Surface pressure measurements were made with flush mounted sensors installed on selected rotor blades and stator vanes and noise measurements were made by microphones located at the far field. Power spectral density analysis, time history studies, and calculation of coherence functions were made. The emphasis of these studies was on the characteristics of tones in the spectra. The amplitude behavior of spectral tones was found to have a large, often predominant, random component, suggesting that turbulent processes play an important role in the generation of tonal as well as broadband noise. Inputs from the data analysis were used in a prediction method which assumes that acoustic dipoles, produced by unsteady blade and van forces, are the important source of fan noise.

Geometrical analysis of Cys-Cys bridges in proteins and their prediction from incomplete structural information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldblum, A.; Rein, R.

1987-01-01

Analysis of C-alpha atom positions from cysteines involved in disulphide bridges in protein crystals shows that their geometric characteristics are unique with respect to other Cys-Cys, non-bridging pairs. They may be used for predicting disulphide connections in incompletely determined protein structures, such as low resolution crystallography or theoretical folding experiments. The basic unit for analysis and prediction is the 3 x 3 distance matrix for Cx positions of residues (i - 1), Cys(i), (i +1) with (j - 1), Cys(j), (j + 1). In each of its columns, row and diagonal vector--outer distances are larger than the central distance. This analysis is compared with some analytical models.

Predicting Bradycardia in Preterm Infants Using Point Process Analysis of Heart Rate.

PubMed

Gee, Alan H; Barbieri, Riccardo; Paydarfar, David; Indic, Premananda

2017-09-01

Episodes of bradycardia are common and recur sporadically in preterm infants, posing a threat to the developing brain and other vital organs. We hypothesize that bradycardias are a result of transient temporal destabilization of the cardiac autonomic control system and that fluctuations in the heart rate signal might contain information that precedes bradycardia. We investigate infant heart rate fluctuations with a novel application of point process theory. In ten preterm infants, we estimate instantaneous linear measures of the heart rate signal, use these measures to extract statistical features of bradycardia, and propose a simplistic framework for prediction of bradycardia. We present the performance of a prediction algorithm using instantaneous linear measures (mean area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.018) for over 440 bradycardia events. The algorithm achieves an average forecast time of 116 s prior to bradycardia onset (FPR = 0.15). Our analysis reveals that increased variance in the heart rate signal is a precursor of severe bradycardia. This increase in variance is associated with an increase in power from low content dynamics in the LF band (0.04-0.2 Hz) and lower multiscale entropy values prior to bradycardia. Point process analysis of the heartbeat time series reveals instantaneous measures that can be used to predict infant bradycardia prior to onset. Our findings are relevant to risk stratification, predictive monitoring, and implementation of preventative strategies for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with bradycardia in neonatal intensive care units.

Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-30

Title: Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques Subject: Monthly Progress Report Period of...Resources: N/A TOTAL: $18,687 2 TECHNICAL STATUS REPORT Abstract The program goal is analysis of sea ice dynamical behavior using Koopman Mode Decompo...sition (KMD) techniques. The work in the program’s first month consisted of improvements to data processing code, inclusion of additional arctic sea ice

Fractal and Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix Computational Analysis of Primary Osteosarcoma Magnetic Resonance Images Predicts the Chemotherapy Response.

PubMed

Djuričić, Goran J; Radulovic, Marko; Sopta, Jelena P; Nikitović, Marina; Milošević, Nebojša T

2017-01-01

The prediction of induction chemotherapy response at the time of diagnosis may improve outcomes in osteosarcoma by allowing for personalized tailoring of therapy. The aim of this study was thus to investigate the predictive potential of the so far unexploited computational analysis of osteosarcoma magnetic resonance (MR) images. Fractal and gray level cooccurrence matrix (GLCM) algorithms were employed in retrospective analysis of MR images of primary osteosarcoma localized in distal femur prior to the OsteoSa induction chemotherapy. The predicted and actual chemotherapy response outcomes were then compared by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and accuracy calculation. Dbin, Λ, and SCN were the standard fractal and GLCM features which significantly associated with the chemotherapy outcome, but only in one of the analyzed planes. Our newly developed normalized fractal dimension, called the space-filling ratio (SFR) exerted an independent and much better predictive value with the prediction significance accomplished in two of the three imaging planes, with accuracy of 82% and area under the ROC curve of 0.20 (95% confidence interval 0-0.41). In conclusion, SFR as the newly designed fractal coefficient provided superior predictive performance in comparison to standard image analysis features, presumably by compensating for the tumor size variation in MR images.

File Usage Analysis and Resource Usage Prediction: a Measurement-Based Study. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devarakonda, Murthy V.-S.

1987-01-01

A probabilistic scheme was developed to predict process resource usage in UNIX. Given the identity of the program being run, the scheme predicts CPU time, file I/O, and memory requirements of a process at the beginning of its life. The scheme uses a state-transition model of the program's resource usage in its past executions for prediction. The states of the model are the resource regions obtained from an off-line cluster analysis of processes run on the system. The proposed method is shown to work on data collected from a VAX 11/780 running 4.3 BSD UNIX. The results show that the predicted values correlate well with the actual. The coefficient of correlation between the predicted and actual values of CPU time is 0.84. Errors in prediction are mostly small. Some 82% of errors in CPU time prediction are less than 0.5 standard deviations of process CPU time.

Prediction of transmission loss through an aircraft sidewall using statistical energy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Ruisen; Sun, Jincai

1989-06-01

The transmission loss of randomly incident sound through an aircraft sidewall is investigated using statistical energy analysis. Formulas are also obtained for the simple calculation of sound transmission loss through single- and double-leaf panels. Both resonant and nonresonant sound transmissions can be easily calculated using the formulas. The formulas are used to predict sound transmission losses through a Y-7 propeller airplane panel. The panel measures 2.56 m x 1.38 m and has two windows. The agreement between predicted and measured values through most of the frequency ranges tested is quite good.

Predictions of biochar production and torrefaction performance from sugarcane bagasse using interpolation and regression analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Hsin; Hsu, Hung-Jen; Kumar, Gopalakrishnan; Budzianowski, Wojciech M; Ong, Hwai Chyuan

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the biochar formation and torrefaction performance of sugarcane bagasse, and they are predicted using the bilinear interpolation (BLI), inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation, and regression analysis. It is found that the biomass torrefied at 275°C for 60min or at 300°C for 30min or longer is appropriate to produce biochar as alternative fuel to coal with low carbon footprint, but the energy yield from the torrefaction at 300°C is too low. From the biochar yield, enhancement factor of HHV, and energy yield, the results suggest that the three methods are all feasible for predicting the performance, especially for the enhancement factor. The power parameter of unity in the IDW method provides the best predictions and the error is below 5%. The second order in regression analysis gives a more reasonable approach than the first order, and is recommended for the predictions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dahl, Milo D.; Sharpe, Jacob A.

2014-01-01

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed us- ing a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify de ciencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the mea- sured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the de nition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares t of the predicted to the mea- sured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new de nition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Derivatives in discrete mathematics: a novel graph-theoretical invariant for generating new 2/3D molecular descriptors. I. Theory and QSPR application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Santiago, Oscar Martínez; López, Yoan Martínez; Barigye, Stephen J.; Torrens, Francisco

2012-11-01

different atoms, an atomic weighting scheme (atom-type labels) is used in the formation of the matrix Q or in LOVIs state. The obtained indices were utilized to describe the partition coefficient (Log P) and the reactivity index (Log K) of the 34 derivatives of 2-furylethylenes. In all the cases, our MDs showed better statistical results than those previously obtained using some of the most used families of MDs in chemometric practice. Therefore, it has been demonstrated to that the proposed MDs are useful in molecular design and permit obtaining easier and robust mathematical models than the majority of those reported in the literature. All this range of mentioned possibilities open "the doors" to the creation of a new family of MDs, using the graph derivative, and avail a new tool for QSAR/QSPR and molecular diversity/similarity studies.

Derivatives in discrete mathematics: a novel graph-theoretical invariant for generating new 2/3D molecular descriptors. I. Theory and QSPR application.

PubMed

Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Santiago, Oscar Martínez; López, Yoan Martínez; Barigye, Stephen J; Torrens, Francisco

2012-11-01

among different atoms, an atomic weighting scheme (atom-type labels) is used in the formation of the matrix Q or in LOVIs state. The obtained indices were utilized to describe the partition coefficient (Log P) and the reactivity index (Log K) of the 34 derivatives of 2-furylethylenes. In all the cases, our MDs showed better statistical results than those previously obtained using some of the most used families of MDs in chemometric practice. Therefore, it has been demonstrated to that the proposed MDs are useful in molecular design and permit obtaining easier and robust mathematical models than the majority of those reported in the literature. All this range of mentioned possibilities open "the doors" to the creation of a new family of MDs, using the graph derivative, and avail a new tool for QSAR/QSPR and molecular diversity/similarity studies.

Support vector machines for prediction and analysis of beta and gamma-turns in proteins.

PubMed

Pham, Tho Hoan; Satou, Kenji; Ho, Tu Bao

2005-04-01

Tight turns have long been recognized as one of the three important features of proteins, together with alpha-helix and beta-sheet. Tight turns play an important role in globular proteins from both the structural and functional points of view. More than 90% tight turns are beta-turns and most of the rest are gamma-turns. Analysis and prediction of beta-turns and gamma-turns is very useful for design of new molecules such as drugs, pesticides, and antigens. In this paper we investigated two aspects of applying support vector machine (SVM), a promising machine learning method for bioinformatics, to prediction and analysis of beta-turns and gamma-turns. First, we developed two SVM-based methods, called BTSVM and GTSVM, which predict beta-turns and gamma-turns in a protein from its sequence. When compared with other methods, BTSVM has a superior performance and GTSVM is competitive. Second, we used SVMs with a linear kernel to estimate the support of amino acids for the formation of beta-turns and gamma-turns depending on their position in a protein. Our analysis results are more comprehensive and easier to use than the previous results in designing turns in proteins.

Analysis of model development strategies: predicting ventral hernia recurrence.

PubMed

Holihan, Julie L; Li, Linda T; Askenasy, Erik P; Greenberg, Jacob A; Keith, Jerrod N; Martindale, Robert G; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K

2016-11-01

There have been many attempts to identify variables associated with ventral hernia recurrence; however, it is unclear which statistical modeling approach results in models with greatest internal and external validity. We aim to assess the predictive accuracy of models developed using five common variable selection strategies to determine variables associated with hernia recurrence. Two multicenter ventral hernia databases were used. Database 1 was randomly split into "development" and "internal validation" cohorts. Database 2 was designated "external validation". The dependent variable for model development was hernia recurrence. Five variable selection strategies were used: (1) "clinical"-variables considered clinically relevant, (2) "selective stepwise"-all variables with a P value <0.20 were assessed in a step-backward model, (3) "liberal stepwise"-all variables were included and step-backward regression was performed, (4) "restrictive internal resampling," and (5) "liberal internal resampling." Variables were included with P < 0.05 for the Restrictive model and P < 0.10 for the Liberal model. A time-to-event analysis using Cox regression was performed using these strategies. The predictive accuracy of the developed models was tested on the internal and external validation cohorts using Harrell's C-statistic where C > 0.70 was considered "reasonable". The recurrence rate was 32.9% (n = 173/526; median/range follow-up, 20/1-58 mo) for the development cohort, 36.0% (n = 95/264, median/range follow-up 20/1-61 mo) for the internal validation cohort, and 12.7% (n = 155/1224, median/range follow-up 9/1-50 mo) for the external validation cohort. Internal validation demonstrated reasonable predictive accuracy (C-statistics = 0.772, 0.760, 0.767, 0.757, 0.763), while on external validation, predictive accuracy dipped precipitously (C-statistic = 0.561, 0.557, 0.562, 0.553, 0.560). Predictive accuracy was equally adequate on internal validation among

Comprehensive lipid analysis: a powerful metanomic tool for predictive and diagnostic medicine.

PubMed

Watkins, S M

2000-09-01

The power and accuracy of predictive diagnostics stand to improve dramatically as a result of lipid metanomics. The high definition of data obtained with this approach allows multiple rather than single metabolites to be used in markers for a group. Since as many as 40 fatty acids are quantified from each lipid class, and up to 15 lipid classes can be quantified easily, more than 600 individual lipid metabolites can be measured routinely for each sample. Because these analyses are comprehensive, only the most appropriate and unique metabolites are selected for their predictive value. Thus, comprehensive lipid analysis promises to greatly improve predictive diagnostics for phenotypes that directly or peripherally involve lipids. A broader and possibly more exciting aspect of this technology is the generation of metabolic profiles that are not simply markers for disease, but metabolic maps that can be used to identify specific genes or activities that cause or influence the disease state. Metanomics is, in essence, functional genomics from metabolite analysis. By defining the metabolic basis for phenotype, researchers and clinicians will have an extraordinary opportunity to understand and treat disease. Much in the same way that gene chips allow researchers to observe the complex expression response to a stimulus, metanomics will enable researchers to observe the complex metabolic interplay responsible for defining phenotype. By extending this approach beyond the observation of individual dysregulations, medicine will begin to profile not single diseases, but health. As health is the proper balance of all vital metabolic pathways, comprehensive or metanomic analysis lends itself very well to identifying the metabolite distributions necessary for optimum health. Comprehensive and quantitative analysis of lipids would provide this degree of diagnostic power to researchers and clinicians interested in mining metabolic profiles for biological meaning.

Analysis Code - Data Analysis in 'Leveraging Multiple Statistical Methods for Inverse Prediction in Nuclear Forensics Applications' (LMSMIPNFA) v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, John R

R code that performs the analysis of a data set presented in the paper ‘Leveraging Multiple Statistical Methods for Inverse Prediction in Nuclear Forensics Applications’ by Lewis, J., Zhang, A., Anderson-Cook, C. It provides functions for doing inverse predictions in this setting using several different statistical methods. The data set is a publicly available data set from a historical Plutonium production experiment.

Predicting SPE Fluxes: Coupled Simulations and Analysis Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorby, M.; Schwadron, N.; Linker, J.; Caplan, R. M.; Wijaya, J.; Downs, C.; Lionello, R.

2017-12-01

Presented here is a nuts-and-bolts look at the coupled framework of Predictive Science Inc's Magnetohydrodynamics Around a Sphere (MAS) code and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM). MAS simulated coronal mass ejection output from a variety of events can be selected as the MHD input to EPREM and a variety of parameters can be set to run against: bakground seed particle spectra, mean free path, perpendicular diffusion efficiency, etc.. A standard set of visualizations are produced as well as a library of analysis tools for deeper inquiries. All steps will be covered end-to-end as well as the framework's user interface and availability.

Rainfall prediction of Cimanuk watershed regions with canonical correlation analysis (CCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustiana, Shailla; Nurani Ruchjana, Budi; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje; Hermawan, Eddy; Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, I.; Krismianto

2017-10-01

Rainfall prediction in Indonesia is very influential on various development sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, industry, and other sectors. The inaccurate predictions can lead to negative effects. Cimanuk watershed is one of the main pillar of water resources in West Java. This watersheds divided into three parts, which is a headwater of Cimanuk sub-watershed, Middle of Cimanuk sub-watershed and downstream of Cimanuk sub- watershed. The flow of this watershed will flow through the Jatigede reservoir and will supply water to the north-coast area in the next few years. So, the reliable model of rainfall prediction is very needed in this watershed. Rainfall prediction conducted with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software. The prediction is every 3months on 2016 (after January) based on Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over West Java. Predictors used in CPT were the monthly data index of Nino3.4, Dipole Mode (DMI), and Monsoon Index (AUSMI-ISMI-WNPMI-WYMI) with initial condition January. The initial condition is chosen by the last data update. While, the predictant were monthly rainfall data CHIRPS region of West Java. The results of prediction rainfall showed by skill map from Pearson Correlation. High correlation of skill map are on MAM (Mar-Apr-May), AMJ (Apr-May-Jun), and JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) which means the model is reliable to forecast rainfall distribution over Cimanuk watersheds region (over West Java) on those seasons. CCA score over those season prediction mostly over 0.7. The accuracy of the model CPT also indicated by the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of the results of Pearson correlation 3 representative point of sub-watershed (Sumedang, Majalengka, and Cirebon), were mostly located in the top line of non-skill, and evidenced by the same of rainfall patterns between observation and forecast. So, the model of CPT with CCA method

A prescribed wake rotor inflow and flow field prediction analysis, user's manual and technical approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. A.; Landgrebe, A. J.

1982-01-01

A user's manual is provided which includes the technical approach for the Prescribed Wake Rotor Inflow and Flow Field Prediction Analysis. The analysis is used to provide the rotor wake induced velocities at the rotor blades for use in blade airloads and response analyses and to provide induced velocities at arbitrary field points such as at a tail surface. This analysis calculates the distribution of rotor wake induced velocities based on a prescribed wake model. Section operating conditions are prescribed from blade motion and controls determined by a separate blade response analysis. The analysis represents each blade by a segmented lifting line, and the rotor wake by discrete segmented trailing vortex filaments. Blade loading and circulation distributions are calculated based on blade element strip theory including the local induced velocity predicted by the numerical integration of the Biot-Savart Law applied to the vortex wake model.

Resolving Contradictions of Predictive Validity of University Matriculation Examinations in Nigeria: A Meta-Analysis Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Modupe, Ale Veronica; Babafemi, Kolawole Emmanuel

2015-01-01

The study examined the various means of solving contradictions of predictive studies of University Matriculation Examination in Nigeria. The study used a sample size of 35 studies on predictive validity of University Matriculation Examination in Nigeria, which was purposively selected to have met the criteria for meta-analysis. Two null hypotheses…

Prediction of maximal oxygen uptake by bioelectrical impedance analysis in overweight adolescents.

PubMed

Roberts, M D; Drinkard, B; Ranzenhofer, L M; Salaita, C G; Sebring, N G; Brady, S M; Pinchbeck, C; Hoehl, J; Yanoff, L B; Savastano, D M; Han, J C; Yanovski, J A

2009-09-01

Maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2max)), the gold standard for measurement of cardiorespiratory fitness, is frequently difficult to assess in overweight individuals due to physical limitations. Reactance and resistance measures obtained from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) have been suggested as easily obtainable predictors of cardiorespiratory fitness, but the accuracy with which ht(2)/Z can predict VO(2max) has not previously been examined in overweight adolescents. The impedance index was used as a predictor of VO(2max) in 87 overweight girls and 47 overweight boys ages 12 to 17 with mean BMI of 38.6 + or - 7.3 and 42.5 + or - 8.2 in girls and boys respectively. The Bland Altman procedure assessed agreement between predicted and actual VO(2max). Predicted VO(2max) was significantly correlated with measured VO(2max) (r(2)=0.48, P<0.0001). Using the Bland Altman procedure, there was significant magnitude bias (r(2)=0.10; P<0.002). The limits of agreement for predicted relative to actual VO(2max) were -589 to 574 mL O(2)/min. The impedance index was highly correlated with VO(2max) in overweight adolescents. However, using BIA data to predict maximal oxygen uptake over-predicted VO(2max) at low levels of oxygen consumption and under-predicted VO(2max) at high levels of oxygen consumption. This magnitude bias, along with the large limits of agreement of BIA-derived predicted VO(2max), limit its usefulness in the clinical setting for overweight adolescents.

On Topological Indices of Certain Dendrimer Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslam, Adnan; Bashir, Yasir; Ahmad, Safyan; Gao, Wei

2017-05-01

A topological index can be considered as transformation of chemical structure in to real number. In QSAR/QSPR study, physicochemical properties and topological indices such as Randić, Zagreb, atom-bond connectivity ABC, and geometric-arithmetic GA index are used to predict the bioactivity of chemical compounds. Dendrimers are highly branched, star-shaped macromolecules with nanometer-scale dimensions. Dendrimers are defined by three components: a central core, an interior dendritic structure (the branches), and an exterior surface with functional surface groups. In this paper we determine generalised Randić, general Zagreb, general sum-connectivity indices of poly(propyl) ether imine, porphyrin, and zinc-Porphyrin dendrimers. We also compute ABC and GA indices of these families of dendrimers.

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2008-01-01

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Predictive analysis of thermal distribution and damage in thermotherapy on biological tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanjul-Vélez, Félix; Arce-Diego, José Luis

2007-05-01

The use of optical techniques is increasing the possibilities and success of medical praxis in certain cases, either in tissue characterization or treatment. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) or low intensity laser treatment (LILT) are two examples of the latter. Another very interesting implementation is thermotherapy, which consists of controlling temperature increase in a pathological biological tissue. With this method it is possible to provoke an improvement on specific diseases, but a previous analysis of treatment is needed in order for the patient not to suffer any collateral damage, an essential point due to security margins in medical procedures. In this work, a predictive analysis of thermal distribution in a biological tissue irradiated by an optical source is presented. Optical propagation is based on a RTT (Radiation Transport Theory) model solved via a numerical Monte Carlo method, in a multi-layered tissue. Data obtained are included in a bio-heat equation that models heat transference, taking into account conduction, convection, radiation, blood perfusion and vaporization depending on the specific problem. Spatial-temporal differential bio-heat equation is solved via a numerical finite difference approach. Experimental temperature distributions on animal tissue irradiated by laser radiation are shown. From thermal distribution in tissue, thermal damage is studied, based on an Arrhenius analysis, as a way of predicting harmful effects. The complete model can be used for concrete treatment proposals, as a way of predicting treatment effects and consequently decide which optical source parameters are appropriate for the specific disease, mainly wavelength and optical power, with reasonable security margins in the process.

Predicting groundwater redox status on a regional scale using linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Close, M E; Abraham, P; Humphries, B; Lilburne, L; Cuthill, T; Wilson, S

2016-08-01

Reducing conditions are necessary for denitrification, thus the groundwater redox status can be used to identify subsurface zones where potentially significant nitrate reduction can occur. Groundwater chemistry in two contrasting regions of New Zealand was classified with respect to redox status and related to mappable factors, such as geology, topography and soil characteristics using discriminant analysis. Redox assignment was carried out for water sampled from 568 and 2223 wells in the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. For the Waikato region 64% of wells sampled indicated oxic conditions in the water; 18% indicated reduced conditions and 18% had attributes indicating both reducing and oxic conditions termed "mixed". In Canterbury 84% of wells indicated oxic conditions; 10% were mixed; and only 5% indicated reduced conditions. The analysis was performed over three different well depths, <25m, 25 to 100 and >100m. For both regions, the percentage of oxidised groundwater decreased with increasing well depth. Linear discriminant analysis was used to develop models to differentiate between the three redox states. Models were derived for each depth and region using 67% of the data, and then subsequently validated on the remaining 33%. The average agreement between predicted and measured redox status was 63% and 70% for the Waikato and Canterbury regions, respectively. The models were incorporated into GIS and the prediction of redox status was extended over the whole region, excluding mountainous land. This knowledge improves spatial prediction of reduced groundwater zones, and therefore, when combined with groundwater flow paths, improves estimates of denitrification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Risk prediction models estimate the risk of developing future outcomes for individuals based on one or more underlying characteristics (predictors). We review how researchers develop and validate risk prediction models within an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, in order to assess the feasibility and conduct of the approach. Methods A qualitative review of the aims, methodology, and reporting in 15 articles that developed a risk prediction model using IPD from multiple studies. Results The IPD approach offers many opportunities but methodological challenges exist, including: unavailability of requested IPD, missing patient data and predictors, and between-study heterogeneity in methods of measurement, outcome definitions and predictor effects. Most articles develop their model using IPD from all available studies and perform only an internal validation (on the same set of data). Ten of the 15 articles did not allow for any study differences in baseline risk (intercepts), potentially limiting their model’s applicability and performance in some populations. Only two articles used external validation (on different data), including a novel method which develops the model on all but one of the IPD studies, tests performance in the excluded study, and repeats by rotating the omitted study. Conclusions An IPD meta-analysis offers unique opportunities for risk prediction research. Researchers can make more of this by allowing separate model intercept terms for each study (population) to improve generalisability, and by using ‘internal-external cross-validation’ to simultaneously develop and validate their model. Methodological challenges can be reduced by prospectively planned collaborations that share IPD for risk prediction. PMID:24397587

Complex networks as a unified framework for descriptive analysis and predictive modeling in climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Chawla, Nitesh; Ganguly, Auroop R

The analysis of climate data has relied heavily on hypothesis-driven statistical methods, while projections of future climate are based primarily on physics-based computational models. However, in recent years a wealth of new datasets has become available. Therefore, we take a more data-centric approach and propose a unified framework for studying climate, with an aim towards characterizing observed phenomena as well as discovering new knowledge in the climate domain. Specifically, we posit that complex networks are well-suited for both descriptive analysis and predictive modeling tasks. We show that the structural properties of climate networks have useful interpretation within the domain. Further,more » we extract clusters from these networks and demonstrate their predictive power as climate indices. Our experimental results establish that the network clusters are statistically significantly better predictors than clusters derived using a more traditional clustering approach. Using complex networks as data representation thus enables the unique opportunity for descriptive and predictive modeling to inform each other.« less

A review and update of the NASA aircraft noise prediction program propeller analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert A.; Nguyen, L. Cathy

1989-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) Propeller Analysis System (PAS) is a set of computational modules for predicting the aerodynamics, performance, and noise of propellers. The ANOPP PAS has the capability to predict noise levels for propeller aircraft certification and produce parametric scaling laws for the adjustment of measured data to reference conditions. A technical overview of the prediction techniques incorporated into the system is presented. The prediction system has been applied to predict the noise signature of a variety of propeller configurations including the effects of propeller angle of attack. A summary of these validation studies is discussed with emphasis being placed on the wind tunnel and flight test programs sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the Piper Cherokee Lance aircraft. A number of modifications and improvements have been made to the system and both DEC VAX and IBM-PC versions of the system have been added to the original CDC NOS version.

Prediction of survival with multi-scale radiomic analysis in glioblastoma patients.

PubMed

Chaddad, Ahmad; Sabri, Siham; Niazi, Tamim; Abdulkarim, Bassam

2018-06-19

We propose a multiscale texture features based on Laplacian-of Gaussian (LoG) filter to predict progression free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients newly diagnosed with glioblastoma (GBM). Experiments use the extracted features derived from 40 patients of GBM with T1-weighted imaging (T1-WI) and Fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images that were segmented manually into areas of active tumor, necrosis, and edema. Multiscale texture features were extracted locally from each of these areas of interest using a LoG filter and the relation between features to OS and PFS was investigated using univariate (i.e., Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier estimator) and multivariate analyses (i.e., Random Forest classifier). Three and seven features were statistically correlated with PFS and OS, respectively, with absolute correlation values between 0.32 and 0.36 and p < 0.05. Three features derived from active tumor regions only were associated with OS (p < 0.05) with hazard ratios (HR) of 2.9, 3, and 3.24, respectively. Combined features showed an AUC value of 85.37 and 85.54% for predicting the PFS and OS of GBM patients, respectively, using the random forest (RF) classifier. We presented a multiscale texture features to characterize the GBM regions and predict he PFS and OS. The efficiency achievable suggests that this technique can be developed into a GBM MR analysis system suitable for clinical use after a thorough validation involving more patients. Graphical abstract Scheme of the proposed model for characterizing the heterogeneity of GBM regions and predicting the overall survival and progression free survival of GBM patients. (1) Acquisition of pretreatment MRI images; (2) Affine registration of T1-WI image with its corresponding FLAIR images, and GBM subtype (phenotypes) labelling; (3) Extraction of nine texture features from the three texture scales fine, medium, and coarse derived from each of GBM regions

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

Predicting new drug indications from network analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd Ali, Yousoff Effendy; Kwa, Kiam Heong; Ratnavelu, Kurunathan

This work adapts centrality measures commonly used in social network analysis to identify drugs with better positions in drug-side effect network and drug-indication network for the purpose of drug repositioning. Our basic hypothesis is that drugs having similar phenotypic profiles such as side effects may also share similar therapeutic properties based on related mechanism of action and vice versa. The networks were constructed from Side Effect Resource (SIDER) 4.1 which contains 1430 unique drugs with side effects and 1437 unique drugs with indications. Within the giant components of these networks, drugs were ranked based on their centrality scores whereby 18 prominent drugs from the drug-side effect network and 15 prominent drugs from the drug-indication network were identified. Indications and side effects of prominent drugs were deduced from the profiles of their neighbors in the networks and compared to existing clinical studies while an optimum threshold of similarity among drugs was sought for. The threshold can then be utilized for predicting indications and side effects of all drugs. Similarities of drugs were measured by the extent to which they share phenotypic profiles and neighbors. To improve the likelihood of accurate predictions, only profiles such as side effects of common or very common frequencies were considered. In summary, our work is an attempt to offer an alternative approach to drug repositioning using centrality measures commonly used for analyzing social networks.

Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Models for Prediction of BP Reactivity to Crossed Legs.

PubMed

Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

2017-01-01

Crossing the legs at the knees, during BP measurement, is one of the several physiological stimuli that considerably influence the accuracy of BP measurements. Therefore, it is paramount to develop an appropriate prediction model for interpreting influence of crossed legs on BP. This research work described the use of principal component analysis- (PCA-) fused forward stepwise regression (FSWR), artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) models for prediction of BP reactivity to crossed legs among the normotensive and hypertensive participants. The evaluation of the performance of the proposed prediction models using appropriate statistical indices showed that the PCA-based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model has the highest prediction accuracy with coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) = 93.16%, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.27, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 5.71 for SBP prediction in normotensive subjects. Furthermore, R 2  = 96.46%, RMSE = 0.19, and MAPE = 1.76 for SBP prediction and R 2  = 95.44%, RMSE = 0.21, and MAPE = 2.78 for DBP prediction in hypertensive subjects using the PCA-LSSVM model. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by hybrid computing models for the prediction of variables in biomedical research studies.

Crack Growth Prediction Methodology for Multi-Site Damage: Layered Analysis and Growth During Plasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark Anthony

1999-01-01

A finite element program has been developed to perform quasi-static, elastic-plastic crack growth simulations. The model provides a general framework for mixed-mode I/II elastic-plastic fracture analysis using small strain assumptions and plane stress, plane strain, and axisymmetric finite elements. Cracks are modeled explicitly in the mesh. As the cracks propagate, automatic remeshing algorithms delete the mesh local to the crack tip, extend the crack, and build a new mesh around the new tip. State variable mapping algorithms transfer stresses and displacements from the old mesh to the new mesh. The von Mises material model is implemented in the context of a non-linear Newton solution scheme. The fracture criterion is the critical crack tip opening displacement, and crack direction is predicted by the maximum tensile stress criterion at the crack tip. The implementation can accommodate multiple curving and interacting cracks. An additional fracture algorithm based on nodal release can be used to simulate fracture along a horizontal plane of symmetry. A core of plane strain elements can be used with the nodal release algorithm to simulate the triaxial state of stress near the crack tip. Verification and validation studies compare analysis results with experimental data and published three-dimensional analysis results. Fracture predictions using nodal release for compact tension, middle-crack tension, and multi-site damage test specimens produced accurate results for residual strength and link-up loads. Curving crack predictions using remeshing/mapping were compared with experimental data for an Arcan mixed-mode specimen. Loading angles from 0 degrees to 90 degrees were analyzed. The maximum tensile stress criterion was able to predict the crack direction and path for all loading angles in which the material failed in tension. Residual strength was also accurately predicted for these cases.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and

Analysis of Factors Influencing Hydration Site Prediction Based on Molecular Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Water contributes significantly to the binding of small molecules to proteins in biochemical systems. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation based programs such as WaterMap and WATsite have been used to probe the locations and thermodynamic properties of hydration sites at the surface or in the binding site of proteins generating important information for structure-based drug design. However, questions associated with the influence of the simulation protocol on hydration site analysis remain. In this study, we use WATsite to investigate the influence of factors such as simulation length and variations in initial protein conformations on hydration site prediction. We find that 4 ns MD simulation is appropriate to obtain a reliable prediction of the locations and thermodynamic properties of hydration sites. In addition, hydration site prediction can be largely affected by the initial protein conformations used for MD simulations. Here, we provide a first quantification of this effect and further indicate that similar conformations of binding site residues (RMSD < 0.5 Å) are required to obtain consistent hydration site predictions. PMID:25252619

Analysis of factors influencing hydration site prediction based on molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Yang, Ying; Hu, Bingjie; Lill, Markus A

2014-10-27

Water contributes significantly to the binding of small molecules to proteins in biochemical systems. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation based programs such as WaterMap and WATsite have been used to probe the locations and thermodynamic properties of hydration sites at the surface or in the binding site of proteins generating important information for structure-based drug design. However, questions associated with the influence of the simulation protocol on hydration site analysis remain. In this study, we use WATsite to investigate the influence of factors such as simulation length and variations in initial protein conformations on hydration site prediction. We find that 4 ns MD simulation is appropriate to obtain a reliable prediction of the locations and thermodynamic properties of hydration sites. In addition, hydration site prediction can be largely affected by the initial protein conformations used for MD simulations. Here, we provide a first quantification of this effect and further indicate that similar conformations of binding site residues (RMSD < 0.5 Å) are required to obtain consistent hydration site predictions.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, Joseph H.

2010-01-01

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia using a variety of grid systems and turbulence models for the June 2009 4th Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was a new subsonic transport model, the Common Research Model, designed using a modern approach for the wing and included a horizontal tail. The fourth workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and incremental drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal tail configurations. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with earlier workshops using the statistical framework.

Poor Gait Performance and Prediction of Dementia: Results From a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Beauchet, Olivier; Annweiler, Cédric; Callisaya, Michele L; De Cock, Anne-Marie; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Kressig, Reto W; Srikanth, Velandai; Steinmetz, Jean-Paul; Blumen, Helena M; Verghese, Joe; Allali, Gilles

2016-06-01

Poor gait performance predicts risk of developing dementia. No structured critical evaluation has been conducted to study this association yet. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically examine the association of poor gait performance with incidence of dementia. An English and French Medline search was conducted in June 2015, with no limit of date, using the medical subject headings terms "Gait" OR "Gait Disorders, Neurologic" OR "Gait Apraxia" OR "Gait Ataxia" AND "Dementia" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia" OR "Dementia, Multi-Infarct" OR "Dementia, Vascular" OR "Alzheimer Disease" OR "Lewy Body Disease" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia With Motor Neuron Disease" (Supplementary Concept). Poor gait performance was defined by standardized tests of walking, and dementia was diagnosed according to international consensus criteria. Four etiologies of dementia were identified: any dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and non-AD (ie, pooling VaD, mixed dementias, and other dementias). Fixed effects meta-analyses were performed on the estimates in order to generate summary values. Of the 796 identified abstracts, 12 (1.5%) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Poor gait performance predicted dementia [pooled hazard ratio (HR) combined with relative risk and odds ratio = 1.53 with P < .001 for any dementia, pooled HR = 1.79 with P < .001 for VaD, HR = 1.89 with P value < .001 for non-AD]. Findings were weaker for predicting AD (HR = 1.03 with P value = .004). This meta-analysis provides evidence that poor gait performance predicts dementia. This association depends on the type of dementia; poor gait performance is a stronger predictor of non-AD dementias than AD. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

2018-02-01

Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions.

PubMed

Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

2014-01-01

Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products 'just likely to be reimbursed'; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit. The results from the post

Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

2014-01-01

Background Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. Objective The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. Methods The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products ‘just likely to be reimbursed’; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. Results The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duncan, Matthew; Rand, David K.

2008-01-01

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Meta-analysis of the predictive factors of postpartum fatigue.

PubMed

Badr, Hanan A; Zauszniewski, Jaclene A

2017-08-01

Nearly 64% of new mothers are affected by fatigue during the postpartum period, making it the most common problem that a woman faces as she adapts to motherhood. Postpartum fatigue can lead to serious negative effects on the mother's health and the newborn's development and interfere with mother-infant interaction. The aim of this meta-analysis was to identify predictive factors of postpartum fatigue and to document the magnitude of their effects using effect sizes. We used two search engines, PubMed and Google Scholar, to identify studies that met three inclusion criteria: (a) the article was written in English, (b) the article studied the predictive factors of postpartum fatigue, and (c) the article included information about the validity and reliability of the instruments used in the research. Nine articles met these inclusion criteria. The direction and strength of correlation coefficients between predictive factors and postpartum fatigue were examined across the studies to determine their effect sizes. Measurement of predictor variables occurred from 3days to 6months postpartum. Correlations reported between predictive factors and postpartum fatigue were as follows: small effect size (r range =0.10 to 0.29) for education level, age, postpartum hemorrhage, infection, and child care difficulties; medium effect size (r range =0.30 to 0.49) for physiological illness, low ferritin level, low hemoglobin level, sleeping problems, stress and anxiety, and breastfeeding problems; and large effect size (r range =0.50+) for depression. Postpartum fatigue is a common condition that can lead to serious health problems for a new mother and her newborn. Therefore, increased knowledge concerning factors that influence the onset of postpartum fatigue is needed for early identification of new mothers who may be at risk. Appropriate treatments, interventions, information, and support can then be initiated to prevent or minimize the postpartum fatigue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

Accuracy of stroke volume variation in predicting fluid responsiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Lu, Baolong; Sheng, Xiaoyan; Jin, Ni

2011-12-01

Stroke volume variation (SVV) appears to be a good predictor of fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. However, a wide range of its predictive values has been reported in recent years. We therefore undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials that investigated the diagnostic value of SVV in predicting fluid responsiveness. Clinical investigations were identified from several sources, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, WANFANG, and CENTRAL. Original articles investigating the diagnostic value of SVV in predicting fluid responsiveness were considered to be eligible. Participants included critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) or operating room (OR) who require hemodynamic monitoring. A total of 568 patients from 23 studies were included in our final analysis. Baseline SVV was correlated to fluid responsiveness with a pooled correlation coefficient of 0.718. Across all settings, we found a diagnostic odds ratio of 18.4 for SVV to predict fluid responsiveness at a sensitivity of 0.81 and specificity of 0.80. The SVV was of diagnostic value for fluid responsiveness in OR or ICU patients monitored with the PiCCO or the FloTrac/Vigileo system, and in patients ventilated with tidal volume greater than 8 ml/kg. SVV is of diagnostic value in predicting fluid responsiveness in various settings.

Engineering and validation of a novel lipid thin film for biomembrane modeling in lipophilicity determination of drugs and xenobiotics

PubMed Central

Idowu, Sunday Olakunle; Adeyemo, Morenikeji Ambali; Ogbonna, Udochi Ihechiluru

2009-01-01

Background Determination of lipophilicity as a tool for predicting pharmacokinetic molecular behavior is limited by the predictive power of available experimental models of the biomembrane. There is current interest, therefore, in models that accurately simulate the biomembrane structure and function. A novel bio-device; a lipid thin film, was engineered as an alternative approach to the previous use of hydrocarbon thin films in biomembrane modeling. Results Retention behavior of four structurally diverse model compounds; 4-amino-3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid (ADBA), naproxen (NPX), nabumetone (NBT) and halofantrine (HF), representing 4 broad classes of varying molecular polarities and aqueous solubility behavior, was investigated on the lipid film, liquid paraffin, and octadecylsilane layers. Computational, thermodynamic and image analysis confirms the peculiar amphiphilic configuration of the lipid film. Effect of solute-type, layer-type and variables interactions on retention behavior was delineated by 2-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and quantitative structure property relationships (QSPR). Validation of the lipid film was implemented by statistical correlation of a unique chromatographic metric with Log P (octanol/water) and several calculated molecular descriptors of bulk and solubility properties. Conclusion The lipid film signifies a biomimetic artificial biological interface capable of both hydrophobic and specific electrostatic interactions. It captures the hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) in the determination of lipophilicity of molecules unlike the pure hydrocarbon film of the prior art. The potentials and performance of the bio-device gives the promise of its utility as a predictive analytic tool for early-stage drug discovery science. PMID:19735551

The predictive validity of ideal partner preferences: a review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Eastwick, Paul W; Luchies, Laura B; Finkel, Eli J; Hunt, Lucy L

2014-05-01

A central element of interdependence theory is that people have standards against which they compare their current outcomes, and one ubiquitous standard in the mating domain is the preference for particular attributes in a partner (ideal partner preferences). This article reviews research on the predictive validity of ideal partner preferences and presents a new integrative model that highlights when and why ideals succeed or fail to predict relational outcomes. Section 1 examines predictive validity by reviewing research on sex differences in the preference for physical attractiveness and earning prospects. Men and women reliably differ in the extent to which these qualities affect their romantic evaluations of hypothetical targets. Yet a new meta-analysis spanning the attraction and relationships literatures (k = 97) revealed that physical attractiveness predicted romantic evaluations with a moderate-to-strong effect size (r = ∼.40) for both sexes, and earning prospects predicted romantic evaluations with a small effect size (r = ∼.10) for both sexes. Sex differences in the correlations were small (r difference = .03) and uniformly nonsignificant. Section 2 reviews research on individual differences in ideal partner preferences, drawing from several theoretical traditions to explain why ideals predict relational evaluations at different relationship stages. Furthermore, this literature also identifies alternative measures of ideal partner preferences that have stronger predictive validity in certain theoretically sensible contexts. Finally, a discussion highlights a new framework for conceptualizing the appeal of traits, the difference between live and hypothetical interactions, and the productive interplay between mating research and broader psychological theories.

The use of copula functions for predictive analysis of correlations between extreme storm tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domino, Krzysztof; Błachowicz, Tomasz; Ciupak, Maurycy

2014-11-01

In this paper we present a method used in quantitative description of weakly predictable hydrological, extreme events at inland sea. Investigations for correlations between variations of individual measuring points, employing combined statistical methods, were carried out. As a main tool for this analysis we used a two-dimensional copula function sensitive for correlated extreme effects. Additionally, a new proposed methodology, based on Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (DFA) and Anomalous Diffusion (AD), was used for the prediction of negative and positive auto-correlations and associated optimum choice of copula functions. As a practical example we analysed maximum storm tides data recorded at five spatially separated places at the Baltic Sea. For the analysis we used Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank copula functions and introduced the reversed Clayton copula. The application of our research model is associated with modelling the risk of high storm tides and possible storm flooding.

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE PAGES

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

2016-11-08

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Dynamical Model of Drug Accumulation in Bacteria: Sensitivity Analysis and Experimentally Testable Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vesselinova, Neda; Alexandrov, Boian; Wall, Michael E.

We present a dynamical model of drug accumulation in bacteria. The model captures key features in experimental time courses on ofloxacin accumulation: initial uptake; two-phase response; and long-term acclimation. In combination with experimental data, the model provides estimates of import and export rates in each phase, the time of entry into the second phase, and the decrease of internal drug during acclimation. Global sensitivity analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the model provide information about the robustness of these estimates, and about the relative importance of different parameters in determining the features of the accumulation time coursesmore » in three different bacterial species: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The results lead to experimentally testable predictions of the effects of membrane permeability, drug efflux and trapping (e.g., by DNA binding) on drug accumulation. A key prediction is that a sudden increase in ofloxacin accumulation in both E. coli and S. aureus is accompanied by a decrease in membrane permeability.« less

Gene expression analysis predicts insect venom anaphylaxis in indolent systemic mastocytosis.

PubMed

Niedoszytko, M; Bruinenberg, M; van Doormaal, J J; de Monchy, J G R; Nedoszytko, B; Koppelman, G H; Nawijn, M C; Wijmenga, C; Jassem, E; Elberink, J N G Oude

2011-05-01

Anaphylaxis to insect venom (Hymenoptera) is most severe in patients with mastocytosis and may even lead to death. However, not all patients with mastocytosis suffer from anaphylaxis. The aim of the study was to analyze differences in gene expression between patients with indolent systemic mastocytosis (ISM) and a history of insect venom anaphylaxis (IVA) compared to those patients without a history of anaphylaxis, and to determine the predictive use of gene expression profiling. Whole-genome gene expression analysis was performed in peripheral blood cells. Twenty-two adults with ISM were included: 12 with a history of IVA and 10 without a history of anaphylaxis of any kind. Significant differences in single gene expression corrected for multiple testing were found for 104 transcripts (P < 0.05). Gene ontology analysis revealed that the differentially expressed genes were involved in pathways responsible for the development of cancer and focal and cell adhesion suggesting that the expression of genes related to the differentiation state of cells is higher in patients with a history of anaphylaxis. Based on the gene expression profiles, a naïve Bayes prediction model was built identifying patients with IVA. In ISM, gene expression profiles are different between patients with a history of IVA and those without. These findings might reflect a more pronounced mast cells dysfunction in patients without a history of anaphylaxis. Gene expression profiling might be a useful tool to predict the risk of anaphylaxis on insect venom in patients with ISM. Prospective studies are needed to substantiate any conclusions. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Analysis, prediction, and case studies of early-age cracking in bridge decks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ElSafty, Adel; Graeff, Matthew K.; El-Gharib, Georges; Abdel-Mohti, Ahmed; Mike Jackson, N.

2016-06-01

Early-age cracking can adversely affect strength, serviceability, and durability of concrete bridge decks. Early age is defined as the period after final setting, during which concrete properties change rapidly. Many factors can cause early-age bridge deck cracking including temperature change, hydration, plastic shrinkage, autogenous shrinkage, and drying shrinkage. The cracking may also increase the effect of freeze and thaw cycles and may lead to corrosion of reinforcement. This research paper presents an analysis of causes and factors affecting early-age cracking. It also provides a tool developed to predict the likelihood and initiation of early-age cracking of concrete bridge decks. Understanding the concrete properties is essential so that the developed tool can accurately model the mechanisms contributing to the cracking of concrete bridge decks. The user interface of the implemented computer Excel program enables the user to input the properties of the concrete being monitored. The research study and the developed spreadsheet were used to comprehensively investigate the issue of concrete deck cracking. The spreadsheet is designed to be a user-friendly calculation tool for concrete mixture proportioning, temperature prediction, thermal analysis, and tensile cracking prediction. The study also provides review and makes recommendations on the deck cracking based mainly on the Florida Department of Transportation specifications and Structures Design Guidelines, and Bridge Design Manuals of other states. The results were also compared with that of other commercially available software programs that predict early-age cracking in concrete slabs, concrete pavement, and reinforced concrete bridge decks. The outcome of this study can identify a set of recommendations to limit the deck cracking problem and maintain a longer service life of bridges.

Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis

PubMed Central

Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

2015-01-01

Background: Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. Results: The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Conclusion: Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended. PMID:26793655

Prediction of unwanted pregnancies using logistic regression, probit regression and discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Ebrahimzadeh, Farzad; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Vahabi, Nasim; Almasian, Mohammad; Bakhteyar, Katayoon

2015-01-01

Unwanted pregnancy not intended by at least one of the parents has undesirable consequences for the family and the society. In the present study, three classification models were used and compared to predict unwanted pregnancies in an urban population. In this cross-sectional study, 887 pregnant mothers referring to health centers in Khorramabad, Iran, in 2012 were selected by the stratified and cluster sampling; relevant variables were measured and for prediction of unwanted pregnancy, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, and probit regression models and SPSS software version 21 were used. To compare these models, indicators such as sensitivity, specificity, the area under the ROC curve, and the percentage of correct predictions were used. The prevalence of unwanted pregnancies was 25.3%. The logistic and probit regression models indicated that parity and pregnancy spacing, contraceptive methods, household income and number of living male children were related to unwanted pregnancy. The performance of the models based on the area under the ROC curve was 0.735, 0.733, and 0.680 for logistic regression, probit regression, and linear discriminant analysis, respectively. Given the relatively high prevalence of unwanted pregnancies in Khorramabad, it seems necessary to revise family planning programs. Despite the similar accuracy of the models, if the researcher is interested in the interpretability of the results, the use of the logistic regression model is recommended.

Analysis, Simulation and Prediction of Cosmetic Defects on Automotive External Panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Port, A.; Thuillier, S.; Borot, C.; Charbonneaux, J.

2011-08-01

The first feeling of quality for a vehicle is linked to its perfect appearance. This has a major impact on the reputation of a car manufacturer. Cosmetic defects are thus more and more taken into account in the process design. Qualifying a part as good or bad from the cosmetic point of view is mainly subjective: the part aspect is considered acceptable if no defect is visible on the vehicle by the final customer. Cosmetic defects that appear during sheet metal forming are checked by visual inspection in light inspection rooms, stoning, or with optical or mechanical sensors or feelers. A lack of cosmetic defect prediction before part production leads to the need for corrective actions, production delays and generates additional costs. This paper first explores the objective description of what cosmetic defects are on a stamped part and where they come from. It then investigates the capability of software to predict these defects, and suggests the use of a cosmetic defects analysis tool developed within PAM-STAMP 2G for its qualitative and quantitative prediction.

Predictive Model and Software for Inbreeding-Purging Analysis of Pedigreed Populations

PubMed Central

García-Dorado, Aurora; Wang, Jinliang; López-Cortegano, Eugenio

2016-01-01

The inbreeding depression of fitness traits can be a major threat to the survival of populations experiencing inbreeding. However, its accurate prediction requires taking into account the genetic purging induced by inbreeding, which can be achieved using a “purged inbreeding coefficient”. We have developed a method to compute purged inbreeding at the individual level in pedigreed populations with overlapping generations. Furthermore, we derive the inbreeding depression slope for individual logarithmic fitness, which is larger than that for the logarithm of the population fitness average. In addition, we provide a new software, PURGd, based on these theoretical results that allows analyzing pedigree data to detect purging, and to estimate the purging coefficient, which is the parameter necessary to predict the joint consequences of inbreeding and purging. The software also calculates the purged inbreeding coefficient for each individual, as well as standard and ancestral inbreeding. Analysis of simulation data show that this software produces reasonably accurate estimates for the inbreeding depression rate and for the purging coefficient that are useful for predictive purposes. PMID:27605515

Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

2018-04-27

Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

2015-01-01

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Link Prediction in Criminal Networks: A Tool for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

PubMed Central

Berlusconi, Giulia; Calderoni, Francesco; Parolini, Nicola; Verani, Marco; Piccardi, Carlo

2016-01-01

The problem of link prediction has recently received increasing attention from scholars in network science. In social network analysis, one of its aims is to recover missing links, namely connections among actors which are likely to exist but have not been reported because data are incomplete or subject to various types of uncertainty. In the field of criminal investigations, problems of incomplete information are encountered almost by definition, given the obvious anti-detection strategies set up by criminals and the limited investigative resources. In this paper, we work on a specific dataset obtained from a real investigation, and we propose a strategy to identify missing links in a criminal network on the basis of the topological analysis of the links classified as marginal, i.e. removed during the investigation procedure. The main assumption is that missing links should have opposite features with respect to marginal ones. Measures of node similarity turn out to provide the best characterization in this sense. The inspection of the judicial source documents confirms that the predicted links, in most instances, do relate actors with large likelihood of co-participation in illicit activities. PMID:27104948

Question Popularity Analysis and Prediction in Community Question Answering Services

PubMed Central

Liu, Ting; Zhang, Wei-Nan; Cao, Liujuan; Zhang, Yu

2014-01-01

With the blooming of online social media applications, Community Question Answering (CQA) services have become one of the most important online resources for information and knowledge seekers. A large number of high quality question and answer pairs have been accumulated, which allow users to not only share their knowledge with others, but also interact with each other. Accordingly, volumes of efforts have been taken to explore the questions and answers retrieval in CQA services so as to help users to finding the similar questions or the right answers. However, to our knowledge, less attention has been paid so far to question popularity in CQA. Question popularity can reflect the attention and interest of users. Hence, predicting question popularity can better capture the users’ interest so as to improve the users’ experience. Meanwhile, it can also promote the development of the community. In this paper, we investigate the problem of predicting question popularity in CQA. We first explore the factors that have impact on question popularity by employing statistical analysis. We then propose a supervised machine learning approach to model these factors for question popularity prediction. The experimental results show that our proposed approach can effectively distinguish the popular questions from unpopular ones in the Yahoo! Answers question and answer repository. PMID:24837851

Predicting personality traits related to consumer behavior using SNS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baik, Jongbum; Lee, Kangbok; Lee, Soowon; Kim, Yongbum; Choi, Jayoung

2016-07-01

Modeling a user profile is one of the important factors for devising a personalized recommendation. The traditional approach for modeling a user profile in computer science is to collect and generalize the user's buying behavior or preference history, generated from the user's interactions with recommender systems. According to consumer behavior research, however, internal factors such as personality traits influence a consumer's buying behavior. Existing studies have tried to adapt the Big 5 personality traits to personalized recommendations. However, although studies have shown that these traits can be useful to some extent for personalized recommendation, the causal relationship between the Big 5 personality traits and the buying behaviors of actual consumers has not been validated. In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting the four personality traits-Extroversion, Public Self-consciousness, Desire for Uniqueness, and Self-esteem-that correlate with buying behaviors. The proposed method automatically constructs a user-personality-traits prediction model for each user by analyzing the user behavior on a social networking service. The experimental results from an analysis of the collected Facebook data show that the proposed method can predict user-personality traits with greater precision than methods that use the variables proposed in previous studies.

Question popularity analysis and prediction in community question answering services.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Zhang, Wei-Nan; Cao, Liujuan; Zhang, Yu

2014-01-01

With the blooming of online social media applications, Community Question Answering (CQA) services have become one of the most important online resources for information and knowledge seekers. A large number of high quality question and answer pairs have been accumulated, which allow users to not only share their knowledge with others, but also interact with each other. Accordingly, volumes of efforts have been taken to explore the questions and answers retrieval in CQA services so as to help users to finding the similar questions or the right answers. However, to our knowledge, less attention has been paid so far to question popularity in CQA. Question popularity can reflect the attention and interest of users. Hence, predicting question popularity can better capture the users' interest so as to improve the users' experience. Meanwhile, it can also promote the development of the community. In this paper, we investigate the problem of predicting question popularity in CQA. We first explore the factors that have impact on question popularity by employing statistical analysis. We then propose a supervised machine learning approach to model these factors for question popularity prediction. The experimental results show that our proposed approach can effectively distinguish the popular questions from unpopular ones in the Yahoo! Answers question and answer repository.

IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

PubMed

Huang, Lihan

2017-12-04

The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

SEC proton prediction model: verification and analysis.

PubMed

Balch, C C

1999-06-01

This paper describes a model that has been used at the NOAA Space Environment Center since the early 1970s as a guide for the prediction of solar energetic particle events. The algorithms for proton event probability, peak flux, and rise time are described. The predictions are compared with observations. The current model shows some ability to distinguish between proton event associated flares and flares that are not associated with proton events. The comparisons of predicted and observed peak flux show considerable scatter, with an rms error of almost an order of magnitude. Rise time comparisons also show scatter, with an rms error of approximately 28 h. The model algorithms are analyzed using historical data and improvements are suggested. Implementation of the algorithm modifications reduces the rms error in the log10 of the flux prediction by 21%, and the rise time rms error by 31%. Improvements are also realized in the probability prediction by deriving the conditional climatology for proton event occurrence given flare characteristics.

Prediction of Protein Modification Sites of Pyrrolidone Carboxylic Acid Using mRMR Feature Selection and Analysis

PubMed Central

Zheng, Lu-Lu; Niu, Shen; Hao, Pei; Feng, KaiYan; Cai, Yu-Dong; Li, Yixue

2011-01-01

Pyrrolidone carboxylic acid (PCA) is formed during a common post-translational modification (PTM) of extracellular and multi-pass membrane proteins. In this study, we developed a new predictor to predict the modification sites of PCA based on maximum relevance minimum redundancy (mRMR) and incremental feature selection (IFS). We incorporated 727 features that belonged to 7 kinds of protein properties to predict the modification sites, including sequence conservation, residual disorder, amino acid factor, secondary structure and solvent accessibility, gain/loss of amino acid during evolution, propensity of amino acid to be conserved at protein-protein interface and protein surface, and deviation of side chain carbon atom number. Among these 727 features, 244 features were selected by mRMR and IFS as the optimized features for the prediction, with which the prediction model achieved a maximum of MCC of 0.7812. Feature analysis showed that all feature types contributed to the modification process. Further site-specific feature analysis showed that the features derived from PCA's surrounding sites contributed more to the determination of PCA sites than other sites. The detailed feature analysis in this paper might provide important clues for understanding the mechanism of the PCA formation and guide relevant experimental validations. PMID:22174779

Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

2018-01-01

Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (<15 m), and 37% at medium depths (15-75 m). Predictions were made at a sub-regional level to determine whether improvements could be made with discriminant functions trained by local data. The results indicated that any gains in predictive success were offset by loss of confidence in the predictions due to the reduction in the number of samples used. The regional scale model predictions indicate that subsurface reducing conditions predominate at low elevations on the coastal plains where poorly drained soils are widespread. Additional indicators for subsurface denitrification are a high carbon content of the soil, a shallow water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological

RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2012-04-01

In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

Prediction of miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy-A systematic review and diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pillai, Rekha N; Konje, Justin C; Richardson, Matthew; Tincello, Douglas G; Potdar, Neelam

2018-01-01

Both ultrasound and biochemical markers either alone or in combination have been described in the literature for the prediction of miscarriage. We performed this systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the best combination of biochemical, ultrasound and demographic markers to predict miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The electronic database search included Medline (1946-June 2017), Embase (1980-June 2017), CINAHL (1981-June 2017) and Cochrane library. Key MESH and Boolean terms were used for the search. Data extraction and collection was performed based on the eligibility criteria by two authors independently. Quality assessment of the individual studies was done using QUADAS 2 (Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2: A Revised Tool) and statistical analysis performed using the Cochrane systematic review manager 5.3 and STATA vs.13.0. Due to the diversity of the combinations used for prediction in the included papers it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis on combination markers. Therefore, we proceeded to perform a meta-analysis on ultrasound markers alone to determine the best marker that can help to improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting miscarriage in women with viable intrauterine pregnancy. The systematic review identified 18 eligible studies for the quantitative meta-analysis with a total of 5584 women. Among the ultrasound scan markers, fetal bradycardia (n=10 studies, n=1762 women) on hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic showed sensitivity of 68.41%, specificity of 97.84%, positive likelihood ratio of 31.73 (indicating a large effect on increasing the probability of predicting miscarriage) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.32. In studies for women with threatened miscarriage (n=5 studies, n=771 women) fetal bradycardia showed further increase in sensitivity (84.18%) for miscarriage prediction. Although there is gestational age dependent variation in the fetal heart rate, a plot

Marital status independently predicts testis cancer survival--an analysis of the SEER database.

PubMed

Abern, Michael R; Dude, Annie M; Coogan, Christopher L

2012-01-01

Previous reports have shown that married men with malignancies have improved 10-year survival over unmarried men. We sought to investigate the effect of marital status on 10-year survival in a U.S. population-based cohort of men with testis cancer. We examined 30,789 cases of testis cancer reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 17) database between 1973 and 2005. All staging were converted to the 1997 AJCC TNM system. Patients less than 18 years of age at time of diagnosis were excluded. A subgroup analysis of patients with stages I or II non-seminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) was performed. Univariate analysis using t-tests and χ(2) tests compared characteristics of patients separated by marital status. Multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard model to generate Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality as the primary endpoints. 20,245 cases met the inclusion criteria. Married men were more likely to be older (38.9 vs. 31.4 years), Caucasian (94.4% vs. 92.1%), stage I (73.1% vs. 61.4%), and have seminoma as the tumor histology (57.3% vs. 43.4%). On multivariate analysis, married status (HR 0.58, P < 0.001) and Caucasian race (HR 0.66, P < 0.001) independently predicted improved overall survival, while increased age (HR 1.05, P < 0.001), increased stage (HR 1.53-6.59, P < 0.001), and lymphoid (HR 4.05, P < 0.001), or NSGCT (HR 1.89, P < 0.001) histology independently predicted death. Similarly, on multivariate analysis, married status (HR 0.60, P < 0.001) and Caucasian race (HR 0.57, P < 0.001) independently predicted improved testis cancer-specific survival, while increased age (HR 1.03, P < 0.001), increased stage (HR 2.51-15.67, P < 0.001), and NSGCT (HR 2.54, P < 0.001) histology independently predicted testis cancer-specific death. A subgroup analysis of men with stages I or II NSGCT revealed similar predictors of all-cause survival as the overall cohort, with

Quantification of hazard prediction ability at hazard prediction training (Kiken-Yochi Training: KYT) by free-response receiver-operating characteristic (FROC) analysis.

PubMed

Hashida, Masahiro; Kamezaki, Ryousuke; Goto, Makoto; Shiraishi, Junji

2017-03-01

The ability to predict hazards in possible situations in a general X-ray examination room created for Kiken-Yochi training (KYT) is quantified by use of free-response receiver-operating characteristics (FROC) analysis for determining whether the total number of years of clinical experience, involvement in general X-ray examinations, occupation, and training each have an impact on the hazard prediction ability. Twenty-three radiological technologists (RTs) (years of experience: 2-28), four nurses (years of experience: 15-19), and six RT students observed 53 scenes of KYT: 26 scenes with hazardous points (hazardous points are those that might cause injury to patients) and 27 scenes without points. Based on the results of these observations, we calculated the alternative free-response receiver-operating characteristic (AFROC) curve and the figure of merit (FOM) to quantify the hazard prediction ability. The results showed that the total number of years of clinical experience did not have any impact on hazard prediction ability, whereas recent experience with general X-ray examinations greatly influenced this ability. In addition, the hazard prediction ability varied depending on the occupations of the observers while they were observing the same scenes in KYT. The hazard prediction ability of the radiologic technology students was improved after they had undergone patient safety training. This proposed method with FROC observer study enabled the quantification and evaluation of the hazard prediction capability, and the application of this approach to clinical practice may help to ensure the safety of examinations and treatment in the radiology department.

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

Predicting the amount of coke deposition on catalyst pellets through image analysis and soft computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingqiong; Zhang, Wenbiao; He, Yuting; Yan, Yong

2016-11-01

The amount of coke deposition on catalyst pellets is one of the most important indexes of catalytic property and service life. As a result, it is essential to measure this and analyze the active state of the catalysts during a continuous production process. This paper proposes a new method to predict the amount of coke deposition on catalyst pellets based on image analysis and soft computing. An image acquisition system consisting of a flatbed scanner and an opaque cover is used to obtain catalyst images. After imaging processing and feature extraction, twelve effective features are selected and two best feature sets are determined by the prediction tests. A neural network optimized by a particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to establish the prediction model of the coke amount based on various datasets. The root mean square error of the prediction values are all below 0.021 and the coefficient of determination R 2, for the model, are all above 78.71%. Therefore, a feasible, effective and precise method is demonstrated, which may be applied to realize the real-time measurement of coke deposition based on on-line sampling and fast image analysis.

The Predicted Secretome of the Plant Pathogenic Fungus Fusarium graminearum: A Refined Comparative Analysis

PubMed Central

Brown, Neil A.; Antoniw, John; Hammond-Kosack, Kim E.

2012-01-01

The fungus Fusarium graminearum forms an intimate association with the host species wheat whilst infecting the floral tissues at anthesis. During the prolonged latent period of infection, extracellular communication between live pathogen and host cells must occur, implying a role for secreted fungal proteins. The wheat cells in contact with fungal hyphae subsequently die and intracellular hyphal colonisation results in the development of visible disease symptoms. Since the original genome annotation analysis was done in 2007, which predicted the secretome using TargetP, the F. graminearum gene call has changed considerably through the combined efforts of the BROAD and MIPS institutes. As a result of the modifications to the genome and the recent findings that suggested a role for secreted proteins in virulence, the F. graminearum secretome was revisited. In the current study, a refined F. graminearum secretome was predicted by combining several bioinformatic approaches. This strategy increased the probability of identifying truly secreted proteins. A secretome of 574 proteins was predicted of which 99% was supported by transcriptional evidence. The function of the annotated and unannotated secreted proteins was explored. The potential role(s) of the annotated proteins including, putative enzymes, phytotoxins and antifungals are discussed. Characterisation of the unannotated proteins included the analysis of Pfam domains and features associated with known fungal effectors, for example, small size, cysteine-rich and containing internal amino acid repeats. A comprehensive comparative genomic analysis involving 57 fungal and oomycete genomes revealed that only a small number of the predicted F. graminearum secreted proteins can be considered to be either species or sequenced strain specific. PMID:22493673

Glucose Prediction Algorithms from Continuous Monitoring Data: Assessment of Accuracy via Continuous Glucose Error-Grid Analysis.

PubMed

Zanderigo, Francesca; Sparacino, Giovanni; Kovatchev, Boris; Cobelli, Claudio

2007-09-01

The aim of this article was to use continuous glucose error-grid analysis (CG-EGA) to assess the accuracy of two time-series modeling methodologies recently developed to predict glucose levels ahead of time using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. We considered subcutaneous time series of glucose concentration monitored every 3 minutes for 48 hours by the minimally invasive CGM sensor Glucoday® (Menarini Diagnostics, Florence, Italy) in 28 type 1 diabetic volunteers. Two prediction algorithms, based on first-order polynomial and autoregressive (AR) models, respectively, were considered with prediction horizons of 30 and 45 minutes and forgetting factors (ff) of 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8. CG-EGA was used on the predicted profiles to assess their point and dynamic accuracies using original CGM profiles as reference. Continuous glucose error-grid analysis showed that the accuracy of both prediction algorithms is overall very good and that their performance is similar from a clinical point of view. However, the AR model seems preferable for hypoglycemia prevention. CG-EGA also suggests that, irrespective of the time-series model, the use of ff = 0.8 yields the highest accurate readings in all glucose ranges. For the first time, CG-EGA is proposed as a tool to assess clinically relevant performance of a prediction method separately at hypoglycemia, euglycemia, and hyperglycemia. In particular, we have shown that CG-EGA can be helpful in comparing different prediction algorithms, as well as in optimizing their parameters.

Proximal Gamma-Ray Spectroscopy to Predict Soil Properties Using Windows and Full-Spectrum Analysis Methods

PubMed Central

Mahmood, Hafiz Sultan; Hoogmoed, Willem B.; van Henten, Eldert J.

2013-01-01

Fine-scale spatial information on soil properties is needed to successfully implement precision agriculture. Proximal gamma-ray spectroscopy has recently emerged as a promising tool to collect fine-scale soil information. The objective of this study was to evaluate a proximal gamma-ray spectrometer to predict several soil properties using energy-windows and full-spectrum analysis methods in two differently managed sandy loam fields: conventional and organic. In the conventional field, both methods predicted clay, pH and total nitrogen with a good accuracy (R2 ≥ 0.56) in the top 0–15 cm soil depth, whereas in the organic field, only clay content was predicted with such accuracy. The highest prediction accuracy was found for total nitrogen (R2 = 0.75) in the conventional field in the energy-windows method. Predictions were better in the top 0–15 cm soil depths than in the 15–30 cm soil depths for individual and combined fields. This implies that gamma-ray spectroscopy can generally benefit soil characterisation for annual crops where the condition of the seedbed is important. Small differences in soil structure (conventional vs. organic) cannot be determined. As for the methodology, we conclude that the energy-windows method can establish relations between radionuclide data and soil properties as accurate as the full-spectrum analysis method. PMID:24287541

NMR-based urine analysis in rats: prediction of proximal tubule kidney toxicity and phospholipidosis.

PubMed

Lienemann, Kai; Plötz, Thomas; Pestel, Sabine

2008-01-01

The aim of safety pharmacology is early detection of compound-induced side-effects. NMR-based urine analysis followed by multivariate data analysis (metabonomics) identifies efficiently differences between toxic and non-toxic compounds; but in most cases multiple administrations of the test compound are necessary. We tested the feasibility of detecting proximal tubule kidney toxicity and phospholipidosis with metabonomics techniques after single compound administration as an early safety pharmacology approach. Rats were treated orally, intravenously, inhalatively or intraperitoneally with different test compounds. Urine was collected at 0-8 h and 8-24 h after compound administration, and (1)H NMR-patterns were recorded from the samples. Variation of post-processing and feature extraction methods led to different views on the data. Support Vector Machines were trained on these different data sets and then aggregated as experts in an Ensemble. Finally, validity was monitored with a cross-validation study using a training, validation, and test data set. Proximal tubule kidney toxicity could be predicted with reasonable total classification accuracy (85%), specificity (88%) and sensitivity (78%). In comparison to alternative histological studies, results were obtained quicker, compound need was reduced, and very importantly fewer animals were needed. In contrast, the induction of phospholipidosis by the test compounds could not be predicted using NMR-based urine analysis or the previously published biomarker PAG. NMR-based urine analysis was shown to effectively predict proximal tubule kidney toxicity after single compound administration in rats. Thus, this experimental design allows early detection of toxicity risks with relatively low amounts of compound in a reasonably short period of time.

Using Predictive Uncertainty Analysis to Assess Hydrologic Model Performance for a Watershed in Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brannan, K. M.; Somor, A.

2016-12-01

A variety of statistics are used to assess watershed model performance but these statistics do not directly answer the question: what is the uncertainty of my prediction. Understanding predictive uncertainty is important when using a watershed model to develop a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). TMDLs are a key component of the US Clean Water Act and specify the amount of a pollutant that can enter a waterbody when the waterbody meets water quality criteria. TMDL developers use watershed models to estimate pollutant loads from nonpoint sources of pollution. We are developing a TMDL for bacteria impairments in a watershed in the Coastal Range of Oregon. We setup an HSPF model of the watershed and used the calibration software PEST to estimate HSPF hydrologic parameters and then perform predictive uncertainty analysis of stream flow. We used Monte-Carlo simulation to run the model with 1,000 different parameter sets and assess predictive uncertainty. In order to reduce the chance of specious parameter sets, we accounted for the relationships among parameter values by using mathematically-based regularization techniques and an estimate of the parameter covariance when generating random parameter sets. We used a novel approach to select flow data for predictive uncertainty analysis. We set aside flow data that occurred on days that bacteria samples were collected. We did not use these flows in the estimation of the model parameters. We calculated a percent uncertainty for each flow observation based 1,000 model runs. We also used several methods to visualize results with an emphasis on making the data accessible to both technical and general audiences. We will use the predictive uncertainty estimates in the next phase of our work, simulating bacteria fate and transport in the watershed.

FLOCK cluster analysis of mast cell event clustering by high-sensitivity flow cytometry predicts systemic mastocytosis.

PubMed

Dorfman, David M; LaPlante, Charlotte D; Pozdnyakova, Olga; Li, Betty

2015-11-01

In our high-sensitivity flow cytometric approach for systemic mastocytosis (SM), we identified mast cell event clustering as a new diagnostic criterion for the disease. To objectively characterize mast cell gated event distributions, we performed cluster analysis using FLOCK, a computational approach to identify cell subsets in multidimensional flow cytometry data in an unbiased, automated fashion. FLOCK identified discrete mast cell populations in most cases of SM (56/75 [75%]) but only a minority of non-SM cases (17/124 [14%]). FLOCK-identified mast cell populations accounted for 2.46% of total cells on average in SM cases and 0.09% of total cells on average in non-SM cases (P < .0001) and were predictive of SM, with a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 86%, a positive predictive value of 76%, and a negative predictive value of 85%. FLOCK analysis provides useful diagnostic information for evaluating patients with suspected SM, and may be useful for the analysis of other hematopoietic neoplasms. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology.

CT Texture Analysis of Ex Vivo Renal Stones Predicts Ease of Fragmentation with Shockwave Lithotripsy.

PubMed

Cui, Helen W; Devlies, Wout; Ravenscroft, Samuel; Heers, Hendrik; Freidin, Andrew J; Cleveland, Robin O; Ganeshan, Balaji; Turney, Benjamin W

2017-07-01

Understanding the factors affecting success of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) would improve informed decision-making on the most appropriate treatment modality for an individual patient. Although stone size and skin-to-stone distance do correlate with fragmentation efficacy, it has been shown that stone composition and architecture, as reflected by structural heterogeneity on CT, are also important factors. This study aims to determine if CT texture analysis (CTTA), a novel, nondestructive, and objective tool that generates statistical metrics reflecting stone heterogeneity, could have utility in predicting likelihood of SWL success. Seven spontaneously passed, intact renal tract stones, were scanned ex vivo using standard CT KUB and micro-CT. The stones were then fragmented in vitro using a clinical lithotripter, after which, chemical composition analysis was performed. CTTA was used to generate a number of metrics that were correlated to the number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. CTTA metrics reflected stone characteristics and composition, and predicted ease of SWL fragmentation. The strongest correlation with number of shocks required to fragment the stone was mean Hounsfield unit (HU) density (r = 0.806, p = 0.028) and a CTTA metric measuring the entropy of the pixel distribution of the stone image (r = 0.804, p = 0.039). Using multiple linear regression analysis, the best model showed that CTTA metrics of entropy and kurtosis could predict 92% of the outcome of number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. This was superior to using stone volume or density. CTTA metrics entropy and kurtosis have been shown in this experimental ex vivo setting to strongly predict fragmentation by SWL. This warrants further investigation in a larger clinical study for the contribution of CT textural metrics as a measure of stone heterogeneity, along with other known clinical factors, to predict likelihood of SWL success.

Development and validation of a numerical acoustic analysis program for aircraft interior noise prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcea, Ralph; Leigh, Barry; Wong, R. L. M.

Reduction of interior noise in propeller-driven aircraft, to levels comparable with those obtained in jet transports, has become a leading factor in the early design stages of the new generation turboprops- and may be essential if these new designs are to succeed. The need for an analytical capability to predict interior noise is accepted throughout the turboprop aircraft industry. To this end, an analytical noise prediction program, which incorporates the SYSNOISE numerical acoustic analysis software, is under development at de Havilland. The discussion contained herein looks at the development program and how it was used in a design sensitivity analysis to optimize the structural design of the aircraft cabin for the purpose of reducing interior noise levels. This report also summarizes the validation of the SYSNOISE package using numerous classical cases from the literature.

Implementation of a polling protocol for predicting celiac disease in videocapsule analysis.

PubMed

Ciaccio, Edward J; Tennyson, Christina A; Bhagat, Govind; Lewis, Suzanne K; Green, Peter H

2013-07-16

To investigate the presence of small intestinal villous atrophy in celiac disease patients from quantitative analysis of videocapsule image sequences. Nine celiac patient data with biopsy-proven villous atrophy and seven control patient data lacking villous atrophy were used for analysis. Celiacs had biopsy-proven disease with scores of Marsh II-IIIC except in the case of one hemophiliac patient. At four small intestinal levels (duodenal bulb, distal duodenum, jejunum, and ileum), video clips of length 200 frames (100 s) were analyzed. Twenty-four measurements were used for image characterization. These measurements were determined by quantitatively processing the videocapsule images via techniques for texture analysis, motility estimation, volumetric reconstruction using shape-from-shading principles, and image transformation. Each automated measurement method, or automaton, was polled as to whether or not villous atrophy was present in the small intestine, indicating celiac disease. Each automaton's vote was determined based upon an optimized parameter threshold level, with the threshold levels being determined from prior data. A prediction of villous atrophy was made if it received the majority of votes (≥ 13), while no prediction was made for tie votes (12-12). Thus each set of images was classified as being from either a celiac disease patient or from a control patient. Separated by intestinal level, the overall sensitivity of automata polling for predicting villous atrophy and hence celiac disease was 83.9%, while the specificity was 92.9%, and the overall accuracy of automata-based polling was 88.1%. The method of image transformation yielded the highest sensitivity at 93.8%, while the method of texture analysis using subbands had the highest specificity at 76.0%. Similar results of prediction were observed at all four small intestinal locations, but there were more tie votes at location 4 (ileum). Incorrect prediction which reduced sensitivity occurred

Implementation of a polling protocol for predicting celiac disease in videocapsule analysis

PubMed Central

Ciaccio, Edward J; Tennyson, Christina A; Bhagat, Govind; Lewis, Suzanne K; Green, Peter H

2013-01-01

AIM: To investigate the presence of small intestinal villous atrophy in celiac disease patients from quantitative analysis of videocapsule image sequences. METHODS: Nine celiac patient data with biopsy-proven villous atrophy and seven control patient data lacking villous atrophy were used for analysis. Celiacs had biopsy-proven disease with scores of Marsh II-IIIC except in the case of one hemophiliac patient. At four small intestinal levels (duodenal bulb, distal duodenum, jejunum, and ileum), video clips of length 200 frames (100 s) were analyzed. Twenty-four measurements were used for image characterization. These measurements were determined by quantitatively processing the videocapsule images via techniques for texture analysis, motility estimation, volumetric reconstruction using shape-from-shading principles, and image transformation. Each automated measurement method, or automaton, was polled as to whether or not villous atrophy was present in the small intestine, indicating celiac disease. Each automaton’s vote was determined based upon an optimized parameter threshold level, with the threshold levels being determined from prior data. A prediction of villous atrophy was made if it received the majority of votes (≥ 13), while no prediction was made for tie votes (12-12). Thus each set of images was classified as being from either a celiac disease patient or from a control patient. RESULTS: Separated by intestinal level, the overall sensitivity of automata polling for predicting villous atrophy and hence celiac disease was 83.9%, while the specificity was 92.9%, and the overall accuracy of automata-based polling was 88.1%. The method of image transformation yielded the highest sensitivity at 93.8%, while the method of texture analysis using subbands had the highest specificity at 76.0%. Similar results of prediction were observed at all four small intestinal locations, but there were more tie votes at location 4 (ileum). Incorrect prediction which

Prognostic and predictive value of VHL gene alteration in renal cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis and review.

PubMed

Kim, Bum Jun; Kim, Jung Han; Kim, Hyeong Su; Zang, Dae Young

2017-02-21

The von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) gene is often inactivated in sporadic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) by mutation or promoter hypermethylation. The prognostic or predictive value of VHL gene alteration is not well established. We conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the association between the VHL alteration and clinical outcomes in patients with RCC. We searched PUBMED, MEDLINE and EMBASE for articles including following terms in their titles, abstracts, or keywords: 'kidney or renal', 'carcinoma or cancer or neoplasm or malignancy', 'von Hippel-Lindau or VHL', 'alteration or mutation or methylation', and 'prognostic or predictive'. There were six studies fulfilling inclusion criteria and a total of 633 patients with clear cell RCC were included in the study: 244 patients who received anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy in the predictive value analysis and 419 in the prognostic value analysis. Out of 663 patients, 410 (61.8%) had VHL alteration. The meta-analysis showed no association between the VHL gene alteration and overall response rate (relative risk = 1.47 [95% CI, 0.81-2.67], P = 0.20) or progression free survival (hazard ratio = 1.02 [95% CI, 0.72-1.44], P = 0.91) in patients with RCC who received VEGF-targeted therapy. There was also no correlation between the VHL alteration and overall survival (HR = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.14], P = 0.21). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that VHL gene alteration has no prognostic or predictive value in patients with clear cell RCC.

A comparison between Bayes discriminant analysis and logistic regression for prediction of debris flow in southwest Sichuan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbo; Jing, Shaocai; Yu, Wenjuan; Wang, Zhaoxian; Zhang, Guoping; Huang, Jianxi

2013-11-01

In this study, the high risk areas of Sichuan Province with debris flow, Panzhihua and Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, were taken as the studied areas. By using rainfall and environmental factors as the predictors and based on the different prior probability combinations of debris flows, the prediction of debris flows was compared in the areas with statistical methods: logistic regression (LR) and Bayes discriminant analysis (BDA). The results through the comprehensive analysis show that (a) with the mid-range scale prior probability, the overall predicting accuracy of BDA is higher than those of LR; (b) with equal and extreme prior probabilities, the overall predicting accuracy of LR is higher than those of BDA; (c) the regional predicting models of debris flows with rainfall factors only have worse performance than those introduced environmental factors, and the predicting accuracies of occurrence and nonoccurrence of debris flows have been changed in the opposite direction as the supplemented information.

Patent Analysis for Supporting Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Prediction: A Data Mining Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Chih-Ping; Jiang, Yu-Syun; Yang, Chin-Sheng

M&A plays an increasingly important role in the contemporary business environment. Companies usually conduct M&A to pursue complementarity from other companies for preserving and/or extending their competitive advantages. For the given bidder company, a critical first step to the success of M&A activities is the appropriate selection of target companies. However, existing studies on M&A prediction incur several limitations, such as the exclusion of technological variables in M&A prediction models and the omission of the profile of the respective bidder company and its compatibility with candidate target companies. In response to these limitations, we propose an M&A prediction technique which not only encompasses technological variables derived from patent analysis as prediction indictors but also takes into account the profiles of both bidder and candidate target companies when building an M&A prediction model. We collect a set of real-world M&A cases to evaluate the proposed technique. The evaluation results are encouraging and will serve as a basis for future studies.

Characterizing primary refractory neuroblastoma: prediction of outcome by microscopic image analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niazi, M. Khalid Khan; Weiser, Daniel A.; Pawel, Bruce R.; Gurcan, Metin N.

2015-03-01

Neuroblastoma is a childhood cancer that starts in very early forms of nerve cells found in an embryo or fetus. It is a highly lethal cancer of sympathetic nervous system that commonly affects children of age five or younger. It accounts for a disproportionate number of childhood cancer deaths and remains a difficult cancer to eradicate despite intensive treatment that includes chemotherapy, surgery, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, radiation therapy and immunotherapy. A poorly characterized group of patients are the 15% with primary refractory neuroblastoma (PRN) which is uniformly lethal due to de novo chemotherapy resistance. The lack of response to therapy is currently assessed after multiple months of cytotoxic therapy, driving the critical need to develop pretreatment clinic-biological biomarkers that can guide precise and effective therapeutic strategies. Therefore, our guiding hypothesis is that PRN has distinct biological features present at diagnosis that can be identified for prediction modeling. During a visual analysis of PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, we observed that patients who survived for less than three years contained large eosin-stained structures as compared to those who survived for greater than three years. So, our hypothesis is that the size of eosin stained structures can be used as a differentiating feature to characterize recurrence in neuroblastoma. To test this hypothesis, we developed an image analysis method that performs stain separation, followed by the detection of large structures stained with Eosin. On a set of 21 PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, our image analysis method predicted the outcome with 85.7% accuracy.

Locally advanced rectal cancer: post-chemoradiotherapy ADC histogram analysis for predicting a complete response.

PubMed

Cho, Seung Hyun; Kim, Gab Chul; Jang, Yun-Jin; Ryeom, Hunkyu; Kim, Hye Jung; Shin, Kyung-Min; Park, Jun Seok; Choi, Gyu-Seog; Kim, See Hyung

2015-09-01

The value of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) for reliable differentiation between pathologic complete response (pCR) and residual tumor is still unclear. Recently, a few studies reported that histogram analysis can be helpful to monitor the therapeutic response in various cancer research. To investigate whether post-chemoradiotherapy (CRT) apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis can be helpful to predict a pCR in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Fifty patients who underwent preoperative CRT followed by surgery were enrolled in this retrospective study, non-pCR (n = 41) and pCR (n = 9), respectively. ADC histogram analysis encompassing the whole tumor was performed on two post-CRT ADC600 and ADC1000 (b factors 0, 600 vs. 0, 1000 s/mm(2)) maps. Mean, minimum, maximum, SD, mode, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th percentile ADCs, skewness, and kurtosis were derived. Diagnostic performance for predicting pCR was evaluated and compared. On both maps, 10th and 25th ADCs showed better diagnostic performance than that using mean ADC. Tenth percentile ADCs revealed the best diagnostic performance on both ADC600 (AZ 0.841, sensitivity 100%, specificity 70.7%) and ADC1000 (AZ 0.821, sensitivity 77.8%, specificity 87.8%) maps. In comparison between 10th percentile and mean ADC, the specificity was significantly improved on both ADC600 (70.7% vs. 53.7%; P = 0.031) and ADC1000 (87.8% vs. 73.2%; P = 0.039) maps. Post-CRT ADC histogram analysis is helpful for predicting pCR in LARC, especially, in improving the specificity, compared with mean ADC. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2014.

A Unified Framework for Activity Recognition-Based Behavior Analysis and Action Prediction in Smart Homes

PubMed Central

Fatima, Iram; Fahim, Muhammad; Lee, Young-Koo; Lee, Sungyoung

2013-01-01

In recent years, activity recognition in smart homes is an active research area due to its applicability in many applications, such as assistive living and healthcare. Besides activity recognition, the information collected from smart homes has great potential for other application domains like lifestyle analysis, security and surveillance, and interaction monitoring. Therefore, discovery of users common behaviors and prediction of future actions from past behaviors become an important step towards allowing an environment to provide personalized service. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for activity recognition-based behavior analysis and action prediction. For this purpose, first we propose kernel fusion method for accurate activity recognition and then identify the significant sequential behaviors of inhabitants from recognized activities of their daily routines. Moreover, behaviors patterns are further utilized to predict the future actions from past activities. To evaluate the proposed framework, we performed experiments on two real datasets. The results show a remarkable improvement of 13.82% in the accuracy on average of recognized activities along with the extraction of significant behavioral patterns and precise activity predictions with 6.76% increase in F-measure. All this collectively help in understanding the users” actions to gain knowledge about their habits and preferences. PMID:23435057

Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

2011-12-01

M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

PubMed

Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

2018-01-19

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of < 5%. Prediction accuracy for survival on day 1 was 75.2%. The most important differentiating factor was the interleukin-6 (IL-6) level on day 1. Favorable functional outcome, defined as Glasgow Outcome Scale scores of 4 and 5, was observed in 68.6% of patients. Favorable functional outcome at all time points had a prediction accuracy of 71.1% in the training data set, with procalcitonin on day 1 being the most important differentiating factor at all time points. A total of 148 patients (27%) developed VP shunt dependency. The most important differentiating factor was hyperglycemia on admission. CONCLUSIONS The multiple variable analysis capability of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derlaga, Joseph M.; Morrison, Joseph H.

2017-01-01

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N- version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational uid dynam- ics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from North America, Europe, Asia, and South America using both common and custom grid sequencees as well as multiple turbulence models for the June 2016 6th AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic con guration for this workshop was the Common Research Model subsonic transport wing- body previously used for both the 4th and 5th Drag Prediction Workshops. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with previous workshops.

Body Composition Analysis Allows the Prediction of Urinary Creatinine Excretion and of Renal Function in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients.

PubMed

Donadio, Carlo

2017-05-28

The aim of this study was to predict urinary creatinine excretion (UCr), creatinine clearance (CCr) and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from body composition analysis. Body cell mass (BCM) is the compartment which contains muscle mass, which is where creatinine is generated. BCM was measured with body impedance analysis in 165 chronic kidney disease (CKD) adult patients (72 women) with serum creatinine (SCr) 0.6-14.4 mg/dL. The GFR was measured ( 99m Tc-DTPA) and was predicted using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. The other examined parameters were SCr, 24-h UCr and measured 24-h CCr (mCCr). A strict linear correlation was found between 24-h UCr and BCM ( r = 0.772). Multiple linear regression (MR) indicated that UCr was positively correlated with BCM, body weight and male gender, and negatively correlated with age and SCr. UCr predicted using the MR equation (MR-UCr) was quite similar to 24-h UCr. CCr predicted from MR-UCr and SCr (MR-BCM-CCr) was very similar to mCCr with a high correlation ( r = 0.950), concordance and a low prediction error (8.9 mL/min/1.73 m²). From the relationship between the GFR and the BCM/SCr ratio, we predicted the GFR (BCM GFR). The BCM GFR was very similar to the GFR with a high correlation ( r = 0.906), concordance and a low prediction error (12.4 mL/min/1.73 m²). In CKD patients, UCr, CCr and the GFR can be predicted from body composition analysis.

An analysis for high speed propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance prediction. Volume 1: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. Alan; Anderson, Olof L.; Edwards, David E.; Landgrebe, Anton J.

1988-01-01

A computer program, the Propeller Nacelle Aerodynamic Performance Prediction Analysis (PANPER), was developed for the prediction and analysis of the performance and airflow of propeller-nacelle configurations operating over a forward speed range inclusive of high speed flight typical of recent propfan designs. A propeller lifting line, wake program was combined with a compressible, viscous center body interaction program, originally developed for diffusers, to compute the propeller-nacelle flow field, blade loading distribution, propeller performance, and the nacelle forebody pressure and viscous drag distributions. The computer analysis is applicable to single and coaxial counterrotating propellers. The blade geometries can include spanwise variations in sweep, droop, taper, thickness, and airfoil section type. In the coaxial mode of operation the analysis can treat both equal and unequal blade number and rotational speeds on the propeller disks. The nacelle portion of the analysis can treat both free air and tunnel wall configurations including wall bleed. The analysis was applied to many different sets of flight conditions using selected aerodynamic modeling options. The influence of different propeller nacelle-tunnel wall configurations was studied. Comparisons with available test data for both single and coaxial propeller configurations are presented along with a discussion of the results.

In Silico Prediction Analysis of Idiotope-Driven T-B Cell Collaboration in Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Høglund, Rune A; Lossius, Andreas; Johansen, Jorunn N; Homan, Jane; Benth, Jūratė Šaltytė; Robins, Harlan; Bogen, Bjarne; Bremel, Robert D; Holmøy, Trygve

2017-01-01

Memory B cells acting as antigen-presenting cells are believed to be important in multiple sclerosis (MS), but the antigen they present remains unknown. We hypothesized that B cells may activate CD4 + T cells in the central nervous system of MS patients by presenting idiotopes from their own immunoglobulin variable regions on human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II molecules. Here, we use bioinformatics prediction analysis of B cell immunoglobulin variable regions from 11 MS patients and 6 controls with other inflammatory neurological disorders (OINDs), to assess whether the prerequisites for such idiotope-driven T-B cell collaboration are present. Our findings indicate that idiotopes from the complementarity determining region (CDR) 3 of MS patients on average have high predicted affinities for disease associated HLA-DRB1*15:01 molecules and are predicted to be endosomally processed by cathepsin S and L in positions that allows such HLA binding to occur. Additionally, complementarity determining region 3 sequences from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) B cells from MS patients contain on average more rare T cell-exposed motifs that could potentially escape tolerance and stimulate CD4 + T cells than CSF B cells from OIND patients. Many of these features were associated with preferential use of the IGHV4 gene family by CSF B cells from MS patients. This is the first study to combine high-throughput sequencing of patient immune repertoires with large-scale prediction analysis and provides key indicators for future in vitro and in vivo analyses.

Advancing alternatives analysis: The role of predictive toxicology in selecting safer chemical products and processes.

PubMed

Malloy, Timothy; Zaunbrecher, Virginia; Beryt, Elizabeth; Judson, Richard; Tice, Raymond; Allard, Patrick; Blake, Ann; Cote, Ila; Godwin, Hilary; Heine, Lauren; Kerzic, Patrick; Kostal, Jakub; Marchant, Gary; McPartland, Jennifer; Moran, Kelly; Nel, Andre; Ogunseitan, Oladele; Rossi, Mark; Thayer, Kristina; Tickner, Joel; Whittaker, Margaret; Zarker, Ken

2017-09-01

Alternatives analysis (AA) is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, assess, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. It requires toxicological data for the existing chemical and potential alternatives. Predictive toxicology uses in silico and in vitro approaches, computational models, and other tools to expedite toxicological data generation in a more cost-effective manner than traditional approaches. The present article briefly reviews the challenges associated with using predictive toxicology in regulatory AA, then presents 4 recommendations for its advancement. It recommends using case studies to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into AA, adopting a stepwise process to employing predictive toxicology in AA beginning with prioritization of chemicals of concern, leveraging existing resources to advance the integration of predictive toxicology into the practice of AA, and supporting transdisciplinary efforts. The further incorporation of predictive toxicology into AA would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and potentially increase the use of predictive toxicology in regulation more broadly. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:915-925. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Combined In-Plane and Through-the-Thickness Analysis for Failure Prediction of Bolted Composite Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kradinov, V.; Madenci, E.; Ambur, D. R.

2004-01-01

Although two-dimensional methods provide accurate predictions of contact stresses and bolt load distribution in bolted composite joints with multiple bolts, they fail to capture the effect of thickness on the strength prediction. Typically, the plies close to the interface of laminates are expected to be the most highly loaded, due to bolt deformation, and they are usually the first to fail. This study presents an analysis method to account for the variation of stresses in the thickness direction by augmenting a two-dimensional analysis with a one-dimensional through the thickness analysis. The two-dimensional in-plane solution method based on the combined complex potential and variational formulation satisfies the equilibrium equations exactly, and satisfies the boundary conditions and constraints by minimizing the total potential. Under general loading conditions, this method addresses multiple bolt configurations without requiring symmetry conditions while accounting for the contact phenomenon and the interaction among the bolts explicitly. The through-the-thickness analysis is based on the model utilizing a beam on an elastic foundation. The bolt, represented as a short beam while accounting for bending and shear deformations, rests on springs, where the spring coefficients represent the resistance of the composite laminate to bolt deformation. The combined in-plane and through-the-thickness analysis produces the bolt/hole displacement in the thickness direction, as well as the stress state in each ply. The initial ply failure predicted by applying the average stress criterion is followed by a simple progressive failure. Application of the model is demonstrated by considering single- and double-lap joints of metal plates bolted to composite laminates.

Epileptic Seizure Prediction Using Diffusion Distance and Bayesian Linear Discriminate Analysis on Intracranial EEG.

PubMed

Yuan, Shasha; Zhou, Weidong; Chen, Liyan

2018-02-01

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by sudden and apparently unpredictable seizures. A system capable of forecasting the occurrence of seizures is crucial and could open new therapeutic possibilities for human health. This paper addresses an algorithm for seizure prediction using a novel feature - diffusion distance (DD) in intracranial Electroencephalograph (iEEG) recordings. Wavelet decomposition is conducted on segmented electroencephalograph (EEG) epochs and subband signals at scales 3, 4 and 5 are utilized to extract the diffusion distance. The features of all channels composing a feature vector are then fed into a Bayesian Linear Discriminant Analysis (BLDA) classifier. Finally, postprocessing procedure is applied to reduce false prediction alarms. The prediction method is evaluated on the public intracranial EEG dataset, which consists of 577.67[Formula: see text]h of intracranial EEG recordings from 21 patients with 87 seizures. We achieved a sensitivity of 85.11% for a seizure occurrence period of 30[Formula: see text]min and a sensitivity of 93.62% for a seizure occurrence period of 50[Formula: see text]min, both with the seizure prediction horizon of 10[Formula: see text]s. Our false prediction rate was 0.08/h. The proposed method yields a high sensitivity as well as a low false prediction rate, which demonstrates its potential for real-time prediction of seizures.

Depositional sequence analysis and sedimentologic modeling for improved prediction of Pennsylvanian reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watney, W.L.

1994-12-01

Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City limestone result from complex interactions among paleotopography (deposition, concurrent structural deformation), sea level, and diagenesis. Analysis of reservoirs and surface and near-surface analogs has led to developing a {open_quotes}strandline grainstone model{close_quotes} in which relative sea-level stabilized during regressions, resulting in accumulation of multiple grainstone buildups along depositional strike. Resulting stratigraphy in these carbonate units are generally predictable correlating to inferred topographic elevation along the shelf. This model is a valuable predictive tool for (1) locating favorable reservoirs for exploration, and (2) anticipating internal properties of the reservoir for field development. Reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas Citymore » limestones are developed in both oolitic and bioclastic grainstones, however, re-analysis of oomoldic reservoirs provides the greatest opportunity for developing bypassed oil. A new technique, the {open_quotes}Super{close_quotes} Pickett crossplot (formation resistivity vs. porosity) and its use in an integrated petrophysical characterization, has been developed to evaluate extractable oil remaining in these reservoirs. The manual method in combination with 3-D visualization and modeling can help to target production limiting heterogeneities in these complex reservoirs and moreover compute critical parameters for the field such as bulk volume water. Application of this technique indicates that from 6-9 million barrels of Lansing-Kansas City oil remain behind pipe in the Victory-Northeast Lemon Fields. Petroleum geologists are challenged to quantify inferred processes to aid in developing rationale geologically consistent models of sedimentation so that acceptable levels of prediction can be obtained.« less

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits

PubMed Central

van Zanten, Martijn

2015-01-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation. PMID:26496492

Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Adaptation Using Environmentally Predicted Traits.

PubMed

van Heerwaarden, Joost; van Zanten, Martijn; Kruijer, Willem

2015-10-01

Current methods for studying the genetic basis of adaptation evaluate genetic associations with ecologically relevant traits or single environmental variables, under the implicit assumption that natural selection imposes correlations between phenotypes, environments and genotypes. In practice, observed trait and environmental data are manifestations of unknown selective forces and are only indirectly associated with adaptive genetic variation. In theory, improved estimation of these forces could enable more powerful detection of loci under selection. Here we present an approach in which we approximate adaptive variation by modeling phenotypes as a function of the environment and using the predicted trait in multivariate and univariate genome-wide association analysis (GWAS). Based on computer simulations and published flowering time data from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, we find that environmentally predicted traits lead to higher recovery of functional loci in multivariate GWAS and are more strongly correlated to allele frequencies at adaptive loci than individual environmental variables. Our results provide an example of the use of environmental data to obtain independent and meaningful information on adaptive genetic variation.

Predicting Individual Characteristics from Digital Traces on Social Media: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Settanni, Michele; Azucar, Danny; Marengo, Davide

2018-04-01

The increasing utilization of social media provides a vast and new source of user-generated ecological data (digital traces), which can be automatically collected for research purposes. The availability of these data sets, combined with the convergence between social and computer sciences, has led researchers to develop automated methods to extract digital traces from social media and use them to predict individual psychological characteristics and behaviors. In this article, we reviewed the literature on this topic and conducted a series of meta-analyses to determine the strength of associations between digital traces and specific individual characteristics; personality, psychological well-being, and intelligence. Potential moderator effects were analyzed with respect to type of social media platform, type of digital traces examined, and study quality. Our findings indicate that digital traces from social media can be studied to assess and predict theoretically distant psychosocial characteristics with remarkable accuracy. Analysis of moderators indicated that the collection of specific types of information (i.e., user demographics), and the inclusion of different types of digital traces, could help improve the accuracy of predictions.

Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

PubMed

Lehmann, Robert J B; Goodwill, Alasdair M; Hanson, R Karl; Dahle, Klaus-Peter

2016-10-01

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders. © The Author(s) 2015.

Predicting research use in nursing organizations: a multilevel analysis.

PubMed

Estabrooks, Carole A; Midodzi, William K; Cummings, Greta G; Wallin, Lars

2007-01-01

No empirical literature was found that explained how organizational context (operationalized as a composite of leadership, culture, and evaluation) influences research utilization. Similarly, no work was found on the interaction of individuals and contextual factors, or the relative importance or contribution of forces at different organizational levels to either such proposed interactions or, ultimately, to research utilization. To determine independent factors that predict research utilization among nurses, taking into account influences at individual nurse, specialty, and hospital levels. Cross-sectional survey data for 4,421 registered nurses in Alberta, Canada were used in a series of multilevel (three levels) modeling analyses to predict research utilization. A multilevel model was developed in MLwiN version 2.0 and used to: (a) estimate simultaneous effects of several predictors and (b) quantify the amount of explained variance in research utilization that could be apportioned to individual, specialty, and hospital levels. There was significant variation in research utilization (p <.05). Factors (remaining in the final model at statistically significant levels) found to predict more research utilization at the three levels of analysis were as follows. At the individual nurse level (Level 1): time spent on the Internet and lower levels of emotional exhaustion. At the specialty level (Level 2): facilitation, nurse-to-nurse collaboration, a higher context (i.e., of nursing culture, leadership, and evaluation), and perceived ability to control policy. At the hospital level (Level 3): only hospital size was significant in the final model. The total variance in research utilization was 1.04, and the intraclass correlations (the percent contribution by contextual factors) were 4% (variance = 0.04, p <.01) at the hospital level and 8% (variance = 0.09, p <.05) at the specialty level. The contribution attributable to individual factors alone was 87% (variance = 0

Fecal immunochemical test for predicting mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dai, Cong; Jiang, Min; Sun, Ming-Jun; Cao, Qin

2018-05-01

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a promising marker for assessment of inflammatory bowel disease activity. However, the utility of FIT for predicting mucosal healing (MH) of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has yet to be clearly demonstrated. The objective of our study was to perform a diagnostic test accuracy test meta-analysis evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of FIT in predicting MH of UC patients. We systematically searched the databases from inception to November 2017 that evaluated MH in UC. The methodological quality of each study was assessed according to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist. The extracted data were pooled using a summary receiver operating characteristic curve model. Random-effects model was used to summarize the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Six studies comprising 625 UC patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity values for predicting MH in UC were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.81) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85), respectively. The FIT level had a high rule-in value (positive likelihood ratio, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.85-5.03) and a moderate rule-out value (negative likelihood ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43) for predicting MH in UC. The results of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve, 0.88; standard error of the mean, 0.02) and diagnostic odds ratio (18.08; 95% CI, 9.57-34.13) also revealed improved discrimination for identifying MH in UC with FIT concentration. Our meta-analysis has found that FIT is a simple, reliable non-invasive marker for predicting MH in UC patients. © 2018 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Revealing chemophoric sites in organophosphorus insecticides through the MIA-QSPR modeling of soil sorption data.

PubMed

Daré, Joyce K; Silva, Cristina F; Freitas, Matheus P

2017-10-01

Soil sorption of insecticides employed in agriculture is an important parameter to probe the environmental fate of organic chemicals. Therefore, methods for the prediction of soil sorption of new agrochemical candidates, as well as for the rationalization of the molecular characteristics responsible for a given sorption profile, are extremely beneficial for the environment. A quantitative structure-property relationship method based on chemical structure images as molecular descriptors provided a reliable model for the soil sorption prediction of 24 widely used organophosphorus insecticides. By means of contour maps obtained from the partial least squares regression coefficients and the variable importance in projection scores, key molecular moieties were targeted for possible structural modification, in order to obtain novel and more environmentally friendly insecticide candidates. The image-based descriptors applied encode molecular arrangement, atoms connectivity, groups size, and polarity; consequently, the findings in this work cannot be achieved by a simple relationship with hydrophobicity, usually described by the octanol-water partition coefficient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

PubMed

Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

2011-02-01

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequence-dependent modelling of local DNA bending phenomena: curvature prediction and vibrational analysis.

PubMed

Vlahovicek, K; Munteanu, M G; Pongor, S

1999-01-01

Bending is a local conformational micropolymorphism of DNA in which the original B-DNA structure is only distorted but not extensively modified. Bending can be predicted by simple static geometry models as well as by a recently developed elastic model that incorporate sequence dependent anisotropic bendability (SDAB). The SDAB model qualitatively explains phenomena including affinity of protein binding, kinking, as well as sequence-dependent vibrational properties of DNA. The vibrational properties of DNA segments can be studied by finite element analysis of a model subjected to an initial bending moment. The frequency spectrum is obtained by applying Fourier analysis to the displacement values in the time domain. This analysis shows that the spectrum of the bending vibrations quite sensitively depends on the sequence, for example the spectrum of a curved sequence is characteristically different from the spectrum of straight sequence motifs of identical basepair composition. Curvature distributions are genome-specific, and pronounced differences are found between protein-coding and regulatory regions, respectively, that is, sites of extreme curvature and/or bendability are less frequent in protein-coding regions. A WWW server is set up for the prediction of curvature and generation of 3D models from DNA sequences (http:@www.icgeb.trieste.it/dna).

Prediction methodologies for target scene generation in the aerothermal targets analysis program (ATAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, Douglas J.; Torres, Manuel; Dougherty, Catherine; Rajendran, Natesan; Thompson, Rhoe A.

2003-09-01

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Aerothermal Targets Analysis Program (ATAP) is a user-friendly, engineering-level computational tool that features integrated aerodynamics, six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) trajectory/motion, convective and radiative heat transfer, and thermal/material response to provide an optimal blend of accuracy and speed for design and analysis applications. ATAP is sponsored by the Kinetic Kill Vehicle Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator (KHILS) facility at Eglin AFB, where it is used with the CHAMP (Composite Hardbody and Missile Plume) technique for rapid infrared (IR) signature and imagery predictions. ATAP capabilities include an integrated 1-D conduction model for up to 5 in-depth material layers (with options for gaps/voids with radiative heat transfer), fin modeling, several surface ablation modeling options, a materials library with over 250 materials, options for user-defined materials, selectable/definable atmosphere and earth models, multiple trajectory options, and an array of aerodynamic prediction methods. All major code modeling features have been validated with ground-test data from wind tunnels, shock tubes, and ballistics ranges, and flight-test data for both U.S. and foreign strategic and theater systems. Numerous applications include the design and analysis of interceptors, booster and shroud configurations, window environments, tactical missiles, and reentry vehicles.

Erosion Prediction Analysis and Landuse Planning in Gunggung Watershed, Bali, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigunasih, N. M.; Kusmawati, T.; Yuli Lestari, N. W.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this research is to predict the erosion that occurs in Gunggung watershed and sustainable landuse management plan. This research used the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) methodology. The method used observation / field survey and soil analysis at the Soil Laboratory of Faculty of Agriculture, Udayana University. This research is divided into 5 stages, (1) land unit determination, (2) Field observation and soil sampling, (3) Laboratory analysis and data collection, (4) Prediction of erosion using USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) method, (5) The permissible erosion determination (EDP) then (6) determines the level of erosion hazard based on the depth of the soil, as well as the soil conservation plan if the erosion is greater than the allowed erosion, and (7) determining landuse management plan for sustainable agriculture. Erosion which value is smaller than soil loss tolerance can be exploited in a sustainable manner, while erosion exceeds allowable erosion will be conservation measures. Conservation action is the improvement of vegetation and land management. Land management like improvements the terrace, addition of organic matter, increase plant density, planting ground cover and planting layered header system will increase the land capability classes. Land use recommended after management is mixed plantation high density with forest plants, mix plantation high density with patio bench construction, seasonal cultivation and perennial crops, cultivation of perennial crops and cultivation of seasonal crops.

Predictive and concurrent validity of the Braden scale in long-term care: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wilchesky, Machelle; Lungu, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

Pressure ulcer prevention is an important long-term care (LTC) quality indicator. While the Braden Scale is a recommended risk assessment tool, there is a paucity of information specifically pertaining to its validity within the LTC setting. We, therefore, undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing Braden Scale predictive and concurrent validity within this context. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PsychINFO and PubMed databases from 1985-2014 for studies containing the requisite information to analyze tool validity. Our initial search yielded 3,773 articles. Eleven datasets emanating from nine published studies describing 40,361 residents met all meta-analysis inclusion criteria and were analyzed using random effects models. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values were 86%, 38%, 28%, and 93%, respectively. Specificity was poorer in concurrent samples as compared with predictive samples (38% vs. 72%), while PPV was low in both sample types (25 and 37%). Though random effects model results showed that the Scale had good overall predictive ability [RR, 4.33; 95% CI, 3.28-5.72], none of the concurrent samples were found to have "optimal" sensitivity and specificity. In conclusion, the appropriateness of the Braden Scale in LTC is questionable given its low specificity and PPV, in particular in concurrent validity studies. Future studies should further explore the extent to which the apparent low validity of the Scale in LTC is due to the choice of cutoff point and/or preventive strategies implemented by LTC staff as a matter of course. © 2015 by the Wound Healing Society.

Logistic model analysis of neurological findings in Minamata disease and the predicting index.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Masanori; Kodama, Tomoko; Akiba, Suminori; Arimura, Kimiyoshi; Wakamiya, Junji; Futatsuka, Makoto; Kitano, Takao; Osame, Mitsuhiro

2002-01-01

To establish a statistical diagnostic method to identify patients with Minamata disease (MD) considering factors of aging and sex, we analyzed the neurological findings in MD patients, inhabitants in a methylmercury polluted (MP) area, and inhabitants in a non-MP area. We compared the neurological findings in MD patients and inhabitants aged more than 40 years in the non-MP area. Based on the different frequencies of the neurological signs in the two groups, we devised the following formula to calculate the predicting index for MD: predicting index = 1/(1+e(-x)) x 100 (The value of x was calculated using the regression coefficients of each neurological finding obtained from logistic analysis. The index 100 indicated MD, and 0, non-MD). Using this method, we found that 100% of male and 98% of female patients with MD (95 cases) gave predicting indices higher than 95. Five percent of the aged inhabitants in the MP area (598 inhabitants) and 0.2% of those in the non-MP area (558 inhabitants) gave predicting indices of 50 or higher. Our statistical diagnostic method for MD was useful in distinguishing MD patients from healthy elders based on their neurological findings.

AlloPred: prediction of allosteric pockets on proteins using normal mode perturbation analysis.

PubMed

Greener, Joe G; Sternberg, Michael J E

2015-10-23

Despite being hugely important in biological processes, allostery is poorly understood and no universal mechanism has been discovered. Allosteric drugs are a largely unexplored prospect with many potential advantages over orthosteric drugs. Computational methods to predict allosteric sites on proteins are needed to aid the discovery of allosteric drugs, as well as to advance our fundamental understanding of allostery. AlloPred, a novel method to predict allosteric pockets on proteins, was developed. AlloPred uses perturbation of normal modes alongside pocket descriptors in a machine learning approach that ranks the pockets on a protein. AlloPred ranked an allosteric pocket top for 23 out of 40 known allosteric proteins, showing comparable and complementary performance to two existing methods. In 28 of 40 cases an allosteric pocket was ranked first or second. The AlloPred web server, freely available at http://www.sbg.bio.ic.ac.uk/allopred/home, allows visualisation and analysis of predictions. The source code and dataset information are also available from this site. Perturbation of normal modes can enhance our ability to predict allosteric sites on proteins. Computational methods such as AlloPred assist drug discovery efforts by suggesting sites on proteins for further experimental study.

Analysis of algorithms for predicting canopy fuel

Treesearch

Katharine L. Gray; Elizabeth Reinhardt

2003-01-01

We compared observed canopy fuel characteristics with those predicted by existing biomass algorithms. We specifically examined the accuracy of the biomass equations developed by Brown (1978. We used destructively sampled data obtained at 5 different study areas. We compared predicted and observed quantities of foliage and crown biomass for individual trees in our study...

Body Composition Analysis Allows the Prediction of Urinary Creatinine Excretion and of Renal Function in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

PubMed Central

Donadio, Carlo

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to predict urinary creatinine excretion (UCr), creatinine clearance (CCr) and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) from body composition analysis. Body cell mass (BCM) is the compartment which contains muscle mass, which is where creatinine is generated. BCM was measured with body impedance analysis in 165 chronic kidney disease (CKD) adult patients (72 women) with serum creatinine (SCr) 0.6–14.4 mg/dL. The GFR was measured (99mTc-DTPA) and was predicted using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. The other examined parameters were SCr, 24-h UCr and measured 24-h CCr (mCCr). A strict linear correlation was found between 24-h UCr and BCM (r = 0.772). Multiple linear regression (MR) indicated that UCr was positively correlated with BCM, body weight and male gender, and negatively correlated with age and SCr. UCr predicted using the MR equation (MR-UCr) was quite similar to 24-h UCr. CCr predicted from MR-UCr and SCr (MR-BCM-CCr) was very similar to mCCr with a high correlation (r = 0.950), concordance and a low prediction error (8.9 mL/min/1.73 m2). From the relationship between the GFR and the BCM/SCr ratio, we predicted the GFR (BCM GFR). The BCM GFR was very similar to the GFR with a high correlation (r = 0.906), concordance and a low prediction error (12.4 mL/min/1.73 m2). In CKD patients, UCr, CCr and the GFR can be predicted from body composition analysis. PMID:28555040

Using predictive uncertainty analysis to optimise tracer test design and data acquisition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallis, Ilka; Moore, Catherine; Post, Vincent; Wolf, Leif; Martens, Evelien; Prommer, Henning

2014-07-01

Tracer injection tests are regularly-used tools to identify and characterise flow and transport mechanisms in aquifers. Examples of practical applications are manifold and include, among others, managed aquifer recharge schemes, aquifer thermal energy storage systems and, increasingly important, the disposal of produced water from oil and shale gas wells. The hydrogeological and geochemical data collected during the injection tests are often employed to assess the potential impacts of injection on receptors such as drinking water wells and regularly serve as a basis for the development of conceptual and numerical models that underpin the prediction of potential impacts. As all field tracer injection tests impose substantial logistical and financial efforts, it is crucial to develop a solid a-priori understanding of the value of the various monitoring data to select monitoring strategies which provide the greatest return on investment. In this study, we demonstrate the ability of linear predictive uncertainty analysis (i.e. “data worth analysis”) to quantify the usefulness of different tracer types (bromide, temperature, methane and chloride as examples) and head measurements in the context of a field-scale aquifer injection trial of coal seam gas (CSG) co-produced water. Data worth was evaluated in terms of tracer type, in terms of tracer test design (e.g., injection rate, duration of test and the applied measurement frequency) and monitoring disposition to increase the reliability of injection impact assessments. This was followed by an uncertainty targeted Pareto analysis, which allowed the interdependencies of cost and predictive reliability for alternative monitoring campaigns to be compared directly. For the evaluated injection test, the data worth analysis assessed bromide as superior to head data and all other tracers during early sampling times. However, with time, chloride became a more suitable tracer to constrain simulations of physical transport

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sexstone, Matthew G.

1998-01-01

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level. ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed. Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided. This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime, few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sexstone, Matthew G.

1998-01-01

This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime,few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

Predicting analysis time in events-driven clinical trials using accumulating time-to-event surrogate information.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Ke, Chunlei; Yu, Zhinuan; Fu, Lei; Dornseif, Bruce

2016-05-01

For clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre-specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time-to-progression (TTP) and progression-free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression-free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using regression analysis to predict emergency patient volume at the Indianapolis 500 mile race.

PubMed

Bowdish, G E; Cordell, W H; Bock, H C; Vukov, L F

1992-10-01

Emergency physicians often plan and provide on-site medical care for mass gatherings. Most of the mass gathering literature is descriptive. Only a few studies have looked at factors such as crowd size, event characteristics, or weather in predicting numbers and types of patients at mass gatherings. We used regression analysis to relate patient volume on Race Day at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway to weather conditions and race characteristics. Race Day weather data for the years 1983 to 1989 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Data regarding patients treated on 1983 to 1989 Race Days were obtained from the facility hospital (Hannah Emergency Medical Center) data base. Regression analysis was performed using weather factors and race characteristics as independent variables and number of patients seen as the dependent variable. Data from 1990 were used to test the validity of the model. There was a significant relationship between dew point (which is calculated from temperature and humidity) and patient load (P less than .01). Dew point, however, failed to predict patient load during the 1990 race. No relationships could be established between humidity, sunshine, wind, or race characteristics and number of patients. Although higher dew point was associated with higher patient load during the 1983 to 1989 races, dew point was a poor predictor of patient load during the 1990 race. Regression analysis may be useful in identifying relationships between event characteristics and patient load but is probably inadequate to explain the complexities of crowd behavior and too simplified to use as a prediction tool.

Integrated analysis of drug-induced gene expression profiles predicts novel hERG inhibitors.

PubMed

Babcock, Joseph J; Du, Fang; Xu, Kaiping; Wheelan, Sarah J; Li, Min

2013-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that drugs interact with diverse molecular targets mediating both therapeutic and toxic effects. Prediction of these complex interactions from chemical structures alone remains challenging, as compounds with different structures may possess similar toxicity profiles. In contrast, predictions based on systems-level measurements of drug effect may reveal pharmacologic similarities not evident from structure or known therapeutic indications. Here we utilized drug-induced transcriptional responses in the Connectivity Map (CMap) to discover such similarities among diverse antagonists of the human ether-à-go-go related (hERG) potassium channel, a common target of promiscuous inhibition by small molecules. Analysis of transcriptional profiles generated in three independent cell lines revealed clusters enriched for hERG inhibitors annotated using a database of experimental measurements (hERGcentral) and clinical indications. As a validation, we experimentally identified novel hERG inhibitors among the unannotated drugs in these enriched clusters, suggesting transcriptional responses may serve as predictive surrogates of cardiotoxicity complementing existing functional assays.

Integrated Analysis of Drug-Induced Gene Expression Profiles Predicts Novel hERG Inhibitors

PubMed Central

Babcock, Joseph J.; Du, Fang; Xu, Kaiping; Wheelan, Sarah J.; Li, Min

2013-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that drugs interact with diverse molecular targets mediating both therapeutic and toxic effects. Prediction of these complex interactions from chemical structures alone remains challenging, as compounds with different structures may possess similar toxicity profiles. In contrast, predictions based on systems-level measurements of drug effect may reveal pharmacologic similarities not evident from structure or known therapeutic indications. Here we utilized drug-induced transcriptional responses in the Connectivity Map (CMap) to discover such similarities among diverse antagonists of the human ether-à-go-go related (hERG) potassium channel, a common target of promiscuous inhibition by small molecules. Analysis of transcriptional profiles generated in three independent cell lines revealed clusters enriched for hERG inhibitors annotated using a database of experimental measurements (hERGcentral) and clinical indications. As a validation, we experimentally identified novel hERG inhibitors among the unannotated drugs in these enriched clusters, suggesting transcriptional responses may serve as predictive surrogates of cardiotoxicity complementing existing functional assays. PMID:23936032

Sugar and acid content of Citrus prediction modeling using FT-IR fingerprinting in combination with multivariate statistical analysis.

PubMed

Song, Seung Yeob; Lee, Young Koung; Kim, In-Jung

2016-01-01

A high-throughput screening system for Citrus lines were established with higher sugar and acid contents using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy in combination with multivariate analysis. FT-IR spectra confirmed typical spectral differences between the frequency regions of 950-1100 cm(-1), 1300-1500 cm(-1), and 1500-1700 cm(-1). Principal component analysis (PCA) and subsequent partial least square-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) were able to discriminate five Citrus lines into three separate clusters corresponding to their taxonomic relationships. The quantitative predictive modeling of sugar and acid contents from Citrus fruits was established using partial least square regression algorithms from FT-IR spectra. The regression coefficients (R(2)) between predicted values and estimated sugar and acid content values were 0.99. These results demonstrate that by using FT-IR spectra and applying quantitative prediction modeling to Citrus sugar and acid contents, excellent Citrus lines can be early detected with greater accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does Group-Level Commitment Predict Employee Well-Being?: A Prospective Analysis.

PubMed

Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Nielsen, Karina

2015-11-01

To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services participated in both waves of the study (T1 [2005] and T2 [2006]). The three outcomes were analyzed using linear multilevel regression analysis, multilevel Poisson regression analysis, and multilevel logistic regression analysis, respectively. Group-level AOC (T1) significantly predicted individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances (T2). The association between group-level AOC (T1) and psychological well-being (T2) was fully mediated by individual-level AOC (T1), and the associations between group-level AOC (T1) and self-reported sickness absence and sleep disturbances (T2) were partially mediated by individual-level AOC (T1). Group-level AOC is an important predictor of employee well-being in contemporary health care organizations.

In Silico Prediction Analysis of Idiotope-Driven T–B Cell Collaboration in Multiple Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Høglund, Rune A.; Lossius, Andreas; Johansen, Jorunn N.; Homan, Jane; Benth, Jūratė Šaltytė; Robins, Harlan; Bogen, Bjarne; Bremel, Robert D.; Holmøy, Trygve

2017-01-01

Memory B cells acting as antigen-presenting cells are believed to be important in multiple sclerosis (MS), but the antigen they present remains unknown. We hypothesized that B cells may activate CD4+ T cells in the central nervous system of MS patients by presenting idiotopes from their own immunoglobulin variable regions on human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II molecules. Here, we use bioinformatics prediction analysis of B cell immunoglobulin variable regions from 11 MS patients and 6 controls with other inflammatory neurological disorders (OINDs), to assess whether the prerequisites for such idiotope-driven T–B cell collaboration are present. Our findings indicate that idiotopes from the complementarity determining region (CDR) 3 of MS patients on average have high predicted affinities for disease associated HLA-DRB1*15:01 molecules and are predicted to be endosomally processed by cathepsin S and L in positions that allows such HLA binding to occur. Additionally, complementarity determining region 3 sequences from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) B cells from MS patients contain on average more rare T cell-exposed motifs that could potentially escape tolerance and stimulate CD4+ T cells than CSF B cells from OIND patients. Many of these features were associated with preferential use of the IGHV4 gene family by CSF B cells from MS patients. This is the first study to combine high-throughput sequencing of patient immune repertoires with large-scale prediction analysis and provides key indicators for future in vitro and in vivo analyses. PMID:29038659

Predicting Trigger Bonds in Explosive Materials through Wiberg Bond Index Analysis.

PubMed

Harper, Lenora K; Shoaf, Ashley L; Bayse, Craig A

2015-12-21

Understanding the explosive decomposition pathways of high-energy-density materials (HEDMs) is important for developing compounds with improved properties. Rapid reaction rates make the detonation mechanisms of HEDMs difficult to understand, so computational tools are used to predict trigger bonds-weak bonds that break, leading to detonation. Wiberg bond indices (WBIs) have been used to compare bond densities in HEDMs to reference molecules to provide a relative scale for the bond strength to predict the activated bonds most likely to break to trigger an explosion. This analysis confirms that X-NO2 (X=N,C,O) bonds are trigger linkages in common HEDMs such as TNT, RDX and PETN, consistent with previous experimental and theoretical studies. Calculations on a small test set of substituted tetrazoles show that the assignment of the trigger bond depends upon the functionality of the material and that the relative weakening of the bond correlates with experimental impact sensitivities. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Prediction of interior noise due to random acoustic or turbulent boundary layer excitation using statistical energy analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

1990-01-01

The feasibility of predicting interior noise due to random acoustic or turbulent boundary layer excitation was investigated in experiments in which a statistical energy analysis model (VAPEPS) was used to analyze measurements of the acceleration response and sound transmission of flat aluminum, lucite, and graphite/epoxy plates exposed to random acoustic or turbulent boundary layer excitation. The noise reduction of the plate, when backed by a shallow cavity and excited by a turbulent boundary layer, was predicted using a simplified theory based on the assumption of adiabatic compression of the fluid in the cavity. The predicted plate acceleration response was used as input in the noise reduction prediction. Reasonable agreement was found between the predictions and the measured noise reduction in the frequency range 315-1000 Hz.

Transmembrane helix prediction: a comparative evaluation and analysis.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Jonathan M; Doyle, Declan A; Sansom, Mark S P

2005-06-01

The prediction of transmembrane (TM) helices plays an important role in the study of membrane proteins, given the relatively small number (approximately 0.5% of the PDB) of high-resolution structures for such proteins. We used two datasets (one redundant and one non-redundant) of high-resolution structures of membrane proteins to evaluate and analyse TM helix prediction. The redundant (non-redundant) dataset contains structure of 434 (268) TM helices, from 112 (73) polypeptide chains. Of the 434 helices in the dataset, 20 may be classified as 'half-TM' as they are too short to span a lipid bilayer. We compared 13 TM helix prediction methods, evaluating each method using per segment, per residue and termini scores. Four methods consistently performed well: SPLIT4, TMHMM2, HMMTOP2 and TMAP. However, even the best methods were in error by, on average, about two turns of helix at the TM helix termini. The best and worst case predictions for individual proteins were analysed. In particular, the performance of the various methods and of a consensus prediction method, were compared for a number of proteins (e.g. SecY, ClC, KvAP) containing half-TM helices. The difficulties of predicting half-TM helices suggests that current prediction methods successfully embody the two-state model of membrane protein folding, but do not accommodate a third stage in which, e.g., short helices and re-entrant loops fold within a bundle of stable TM helices.

Time-series analysis of hepatitis A, B, C and E infections in a large Chinese city: application to prediction analysis.

PubMed

Sumi, A; Luo, T; Zhou, D; Yu, B; Kong, D; Kobayashi, N

2013-05-01

Viral hepatitis is recognized as one of the most frequently reported diseases, and especially in China, acute and chronic liver disease due to viral hepatitis has been a major public health problem. The present study aimed to analyse and predict surveillance data of infections of hepatitis A, B, C and E in Wuhan, China, by the method of time-series analysis (MemCalc, Suwa-Trast, Japan). On the basis of spectral analysis, fundamental modes explaining the underlying variation of the data for the years 2004-2008 were assigned. The model was calculated using the fundamental modes and the underlying variation of the data reproduced well. An extension of the model to the year 2009 could predict the data quantitatively. Our study suggests that the present method will allow us to model the temporal pattern of epidemics of viral hepatitis much more effectively than using the artificial neural network, which has been used previously.

Predict-first experimental analysis using automated and integrated magnetohydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, B. C.; Paz-Soldan, C.; Meneghini, O.; Lao, L. L.; Weisberg, D. B.; Belli, E. A.; Evans, T. E.; Ferraro, N. M.; Snyder, P. B.

2018-05-01

An integrated-modeling workflow has been developed for the purpose of performing predict-first analysis of transient-stability experiments. Starting from an existing equilibrium reconstruction from a past experiment, the workflow couples together the EFIT Grad-Shafranov solver [L. Lao et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 48, 968 (2005)], the EPED model for the pedestal structure [P. B. Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 056118 (2009)], and the NEO drift-kinetic-equation solver [E. A. Belli and J. Candy, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 015015 (2012)] (for bootstrap current calculations) in order to generate equilibria with self-consistent pedestal structures as the plasma shape and various scalar parameters (e.g., normalized β, pedestal density, and edge safety factor [q95]) are changed. These equilibria are then analyzed using automated M3D-C1 extended-magnetohydrodynamic modeling [S. C. Jardin et al., Comput. Sci. Discovery 5, 014002 (2012)] to compute the plasma response to three-dimensional magnetic perturbations. This workflow was created in conjunction with a DIII-D experiment examining the effect of triangularity on the 3D plasma response. Several versions of the workflow were developed, and the initial ones were used to help guide experimental planning (e.g., determining the plasma current necessary to maintain the constant edge safety factor in various shapes). Subsequent validation with the experimental results was then used to revise the workflow, ultimately resulting in the complete model presented here. We show that quantitative agreement was achieved between the M3D-C1 plasma response calculated for equilibria generated by the final workflow and equilibria reconstructed from experimental data. A comparison of results from earlier workflows is used to show the importance of properly matching certain experimental parameters in the generated equilibria, including the normalized β, pedestal density, and q95. On the other hand, the details of the pedestal

Predicting the extent of heterogeneity in meta-analysis, using empirical data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews

PubMed Central

Turner, Rebecca M; Davey, Jonathan; Clarke, Mike J; Thompson, Simon G; Higgins, Julian PT

2012-01-01

Background Many meta-analyses contain only a small number of studies, which makes it difficult to estimate the extent of between-study heterogeneity. Bayesian meta-analysis allows incorporation of external evidence on heterogeneity, and offers advantages over conventional random-effects meta-analysis. To assist in this, we provide empirical evidence on the likely extent of heterogeneity in particular areas of health care. Methods Our analyses included 14 886 meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. We classified each meta-analysis according to the type of outcome, type of intervention comparison and medical specialty. By modelling the study data from all meta-analyses simultaneously, using the log odds ratio scale, we investigated the impact of meta-analysis characteristics on the underlying between-study heterogeneity variance. Predictive distributions were obtained for the heterogeneity expected in future meta-analyses. Results Between-study heterogeneity variances for meta-analyses in which the outcome was all-cause mortality were found to be on average 17% (95% CI 10–26) of variances for other outcomes. In meta-analyses comparing two active pharmacological interventions, heterogeneity was on average 75% (95% CI 58–95) of variances for non-pharmacological interventions. Meta-analysis size was found to have only a small effect on heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are presented for nine different settings, defined by type of outcome and type of intervention comparison. For example, for a planned meta-analysis comparing a pharmacological intervention against placebo or control with a subjectively measured outcome, the predictive distribution for heterogeneity is a log-normal (−2.13, 1.582) distribution, which has a median value of 0.12. In an example of meta-analysis of six studies, incorporating external evidence led to a smaller heterogeneity estimate and a narrower confidence interval for the combined intervention effect

Comparison of Damage Path Predictions for Composite Laminates by Explicit and Standard Finite Element Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogert, Philip B.; Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Chunchu, Prasad B.

2006-01-01

Splitting, ultimate failure load and the damage path in center notched composite specimens subjected to in-plane tension loading are predicted using progressive failure analysis methodology. A 2-D Hashin-Rotem failure criterion is used in determining intra-laminar fiber and matrix failures. This progressive failure methodology has been implemented in the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard finite element codes through user written subroutines "VUMAT" and "USDFLD" respectively. A 2-D finite element model is used for predicting the intra-laminar damages. Analysis results obtained from the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard code show good agreement with experimental results. The importance of modeling delamination in progressive failure analysis methodology is recognized for future studies. The use of an explicit integration dynamics code for simple specimen geometry and static loading establishes a foundation for future analyses where complex loading and nonlinear dynamic interactions of damage and structure will necessitate it.

Prediction of Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Reaction Wheel Assembly Angular Momentum Using Regression Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeHart, Russell

2017-01-01

This study determines the feasibility of creating a tool that can accurately predict Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) reaction wheel assembly (RWA) angular momentum, weeks or even months into the future. LRO is a three-axis stabilized spacecraft that was launched on June 18, 2009. While typically nadir-pointing, LRO conducts many types of slews to enable novel science collection. Momentum unloads have historically been performed approximately once every two weeks with the goal of maintaining system total angular momentum below 70 Nms; however flight experience shows the models developed before launch are overly conservative, with many momentum unloads being performed before system angular momentum surpasses 50 Nms. A more accurate model of RWA angular momentum growth would improve momentum unload scheduling and decrease the frequency of these unloads. Since some LRO instruments must be deactivated during momentum unloads and in the case of one instrument, decontaminated for 24 hours there after a decrease in the frequency of unloads increases science collection. This study develops a new model to predict LRO RWA angular momentum. Regression analysis of data from October 2014 to October 2015 was used to develop relationships between solar beta angle, slew specifications, and RWA angular momentum growth. The resulting model predicts RWA angular momentum using input solar beta angle and mission schedule data. This model was used to predict RWA angular momentum from October 2013 to October 2014. Predictions agree well with telemetry; of the 23 momentum unloads performed from October 2013 to October 2014, the mean and median magnitude of the RWA total angular momentum prediction error at the time of the momentum unloads were 3.7 and 2.7 Nms, respectively. The magnitude of the largest RWA total angular momentum prediction error was 10.6 Nms. Development of a tool that uses the models presented herein is currently underway.

Early prediction of cerebral palsy by computer-based video analysis of general movements: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Adde, Lars; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Jensenius, Alexander R; Taraldsen, Gunnar; Grunewaldt, Kristine H; Støen, Ragnhild

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of a computer-based video analysis of the development of cerebral palsy (CP) in young infants. A prospective study of general movements used recordings from 30 high-risk infants (13 males, 17 females; mean gestational age 31wks, SD 6wks; range 23-42wks) between 10 and 15 weeks post term when fidgety movements should be present. Recordings were analysed using computer vision software. Movement variables, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, were used for quantitative analyses. CP status was reported at 5 years. Thirteen infants developed CP (eight hemiparetic, four quadriparetic, one dyskinetic; seven ambulatory, three non-ambulatory, and three unknown function), of whom one had fidgety movements. Variability of the centroid of motion had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 71% in identifying CP. By combining this with variables reflecting the amount of motion, specificity increased to 88%. Nine out of 10 children with CP, and for whom information about functional level was available, were correctly predicted with regard to ambulatory and non-ambulatory function. Prediction of CP can be provided by computer-based video analysis in young infants. The method may serve as an objective and feasible tool for early prediction of CP in high-risk infants.

Simultaneous feature selection and parameter optimisation using an artificial ant colony: case study of melting point prediction

PubMed Central

O'Boyle, Noel M; Palmer, David S; Nigsch, Florian; Mitchell, John BO

2008-01-01

Background We present a novel feature selection algorithm, Winnowing Artificial Ant Colony (WAAC), that performs simultaneous feature selection and model parameter optimisation for the development of predictive quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models. The WAAC algorithm is an extension of the modified ant colony algorithm of Shen et al. (J Chem Inf Model 2005, 45: 1024–1029). We test the ability of the algorithm to develop a predictive partial least squares model for the Karthikeyan dataset (J Chem Inf Model 2005, 45: 581–590) of melting point values. We also test its ability to perform feature selection on a support vector machine model for the same dataset. Results Starting from an initial set of 203 descriptors, the WAAC algorithm selected a PLS model with 68 descriptors which has an RMSE on an external test set of 46.6°C and R2 of 0.51. The number of components chosen for the model was 49, which was close to optimal for this feature selection. The selected SVM model has 28 descriptors (cost of 5, ε of 0.21) and an RMSE of 45.1°C and R2 of 0.54. This model outperforms a kNN model (RMSE of 48.3°C, R2 of 0.47) for the same data and has similar performance to a Random Forest model (RMSE of 44.5°C, R2 of 0.55). However it is much less prone to bias at the extremes of the range of melting points as shown by the slope of the line through the residuals: -0.43 for WAAC/SVM, -0.53 for Random Forest. Conclusion With a careful choice of objective function, the WAAC algorithm can be used to optimise machine learning and regression models that suffer from overfitting. Where model parameters also need to be tuned, as is the case with support vector machine and partial least squares models, it can optimise these simultaneously. The moving probabilities used by the algorithm are easily interpreted in terms of the best and current models of the ants, and the winnowing procedure promotes the removal of irrelevant descriptors. PMID:18959785

Simultaneous feature selection and parameter optimisation using an artificial ant colony: case study of melting point prediction.

PubMed

O'Boyle, Noel M; Palmer, David S; Nigsch, Florian; Mitchell, John Bo

2008-10-29

We present a novel feature selection algorithm, Winnowing Artificial Ant Colony (WAAC), that performs simultaneous feature selection and model parameter optimisation for the development of predictive quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models. The WAAC algorithm is an extension of the modified ant colony algorithm of Shen et al. (J Chem Inf Model 2005, 45: 1024-1029). We test the ability of the algorithm to develop a predictive partial least squares model for the Karthikeyan dataset (J Chem Inf Model 2005, 45: 581-590) of melting point values. We also test its ability to perform feature selection on a support vector machine model for the same dataset. Starting from an initial set of 203 descriptors, the WAAC algorithm selected a PLS model with 68 descriptors which has an RMSE on an external test set of 46.6 degrees C and R2 of 0.51. The number of components chosen for the model was 49, which was close to optimal for this feature selection. The selected SVM model has 28 descriptors (cost of 5, epsilon of 0.21) and an RMSE of 45.1 degrees C and R2 of 0.54. This model outperforms a kNN model (RMSE of 48.3 degrees C, R2 of 0.47) for the same data and has similar performance to a Random Forest model (RMSE of 44.5 degrees C, R2 of 0.55). However it is much less prone to bias at the extremes of the range of melting points as shown by the slope of the line through the residuals: -0.43 for WAAC/SVM, -0.53 for Random Forest. With a careful choice of objective function, the WAAC algorithm can be used to optimise machine learning and regression models that suffer from overfitting. Where model parameters also need to be tuned, as is the case with support vector machine and partial least squares models, it can optimise these simultaneously. The moving probabilities used by the algorithm are easily interpreted in terms of the best and current models of the ants, and the winnowing procedure promotes the removal of irrelevant descriptors.

Edge-diffraction effects in RCS predictions and their importance in systems analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friess, W. F.; Klement, D.; Ruppel, M.; Stein, Volker

1996-06-01

In developing RCS prediction codes a variety of physical effects such as the edge diffraction effect have to be considered with the consequence that the computer effort increases considerably. This fact limits the field of application of such codes, especially if the RCS data serve as input parameters for system simulators which very often need these data for a high number of observation angles and/or frequencies. Vice versa the issues of a system analysis can be used to estimate the relevance of physical effects under system viewpoints and to rank them according to their magnitude. This paper tries to evaluate the importance of RCS predictions containing an edge diffracted field for systems analysis. A double dihedral with a strong depolarizing behavior and a generic airplane design containing many arbitrarily oriented edges are used as test structures. Data of the scattered field are generated by the RCS computer code SIGMA with and without including edge diffraction effects. These data are submitted to the code DORA to determine radar range and radar detectibility and to a SAR simulator code to generate SAR imagery. In both cases special scenarios are assumed. The essential features of the computer codes in their current state are described, the results are presented and discussed under systems viewpoints.

Sensor image prediction techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenger, A. J.; Stone, W. R.; Berry, L.; Murray, T. J.

1981-02-01

The preparation of prediction imagery is a complex, costly, and time consuming process. Image prediction systems which produce a detailed replica of the image area require the extensive Defense Mapping Agency data base. The purpose of this study was to analyze the use of image predictions in order to determine whether a reduced set of more compact image features contains enough information to produce acceptable navigator performance. A job analysis of the navigator's mission tasks was performed. It showed that the cognitive and perceptual tasks he performs during navigation are identical to those performed for the targeting mission function. In addition, the results of the analysis of his performance when using a particular sensor can be extended to the analysis of this mission tasks using any sensor. An experimental approach was used to determine the relationship between navigator performance and the type of amount of information in the prediction image. A number of subjects were given image predictions containing varying levels of scene detail and different image features, and then asked to identify the predicted targets in corresponding dynamic flight sequences over scenes of cultural, terrain, and mixed (both cultural and terrain) content.

Analysis of the origin of predictability in human communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Liu, Yani; Wu, Ye; Xiao, Jinghua

2014-01-01

Human behaviors in daily life can be traced by their communications via electronic devices. E-mails, short messages and cell-phone calls can be used to investigate the predictability of communication partners’ patterns, because these three are the most representative and common behaviors in daily communications. In this paper, we show that all the three manners have apparent predictability in partners’ patterns, and moreover, the short message users’ sequences have the highest predictability among the three. We also reveal that people with fewer communication partners have higher predictability. Finally, we investigate the origin of predictability, which comes from two aspects: one is the intrinsic pattern in the partners sequence, that is, people have the preference of communicating with a fixed partner after another fixed one. The other aspect is the burst, which is communicating with the same partner several times in a row. The high burst in short message communication pattern is one of the main reasons for its high predictability, the intrinsic pattern in e-mail partners sequence is the main reason for its predictability, and the predictability of cell-phone call partners sequence comes from both aspects.

Aircraft noise prediction program propeller analysis system IBM-PC version user's manual version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolan, Sandra K.

1988-01-01

The IBM-PC version of the Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) Propeller Analysis System (PAS) is a set of computational programs for predicting the aerodynamics, performance, and noise of propellers. The ANOPP-PAS is a subset of a larger version of ANOPP which can be executed on CDC or VAX computers. This manual provides a description of the IBM-PC version of the ANOPP-PAS and its prediction capabilities, and instructions on how to use the system on an IBM-XT or IBM-AT personal computer. Sections within the manual document installation, system design, ANOPP-PAS usage, data entry preprocessors, and ANOPP-PAS functional modules and procedures. Appendices to the manual include a glossary of ANOPP terms and information on error diagnostics and recovery techniques.

Predictive uncertainty analysis of a saltwater intrusion model using null-space Monte Carlo

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herckenrath, Daan; Langevin, Christian D.; Doherty, John

2011-01-01

Because of the extensive computational burden and perhaps a lack of awareness of existing methods, rigorous uncertainty analyses are rarely conducted for variable-density flow and transport models. For this reason, a recently developed null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method for quantifying prediction uncertainty was tested for a synthetic saltwater intrusion model patterned after the Henry problem. Saltwater intrusion caused by a reduction in fresh groundwater discharge was simulated for 1000 randomly generated hydraulic conductivity distributions, representing a mildly heterogeneous aquifer. From these 1000 simulations, the hydraulic conductivity distribution giving rise to the most extreme case of saltwater intrusion was selected and was assumed to represent the "true" system. Head and salinity values from this true model were then extracted and used as observations for subsequent model calibration. Random noise was added to the observations to approximate realistic field conditions. The NSMC method was used to calculate 1000 calibration-constrained parameter fields. If the dimensionality of the solution space was set appropriately, the estimated uncertainty range from the NSMC analysis encompassed the truth. Several variants of the method were implemented to investigate their effect on the efficiency of the NSMC method. Reducing the dimensionality of the null-space for the processing of the random parameter sets did not result in any significant gains in efficiency and compromised the ability of the NSMC method to encompass the true prediction value. The addition of intrapilot point heterogeneity to the NSMC process was also tested. According to a variogram comparison, this provided the same scale of heterogeneity that was used to generate the truth. However, incorporation of intrapilot point variability did not make a noticeable difference to the uncertainty of the prediction. With this higher level of heterogeneity, however, the computational burden of

PREDICTS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Hanying

2007-01-01

PREDICTS is a computer program that predicts the frequencies, as functions of time, of signals to be received by a radio science receiver in this case, a special-purpose digital receiver dedicated to analysis of signals received by an antenna in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Unlike other software used in the DSN, PREDICTS does not use interpolation early in the calculations; as a consequence, PREDICTS is more precise and more stable. The precision afforded by the other DSN software is sufficient for telemetry; the greater precision afforded by PREDICTS is needed for radio-science experiments. In addition to frequencies as a function of time, PREDICTS yields the rates of change and interpolation coefficients for the frequencies and the beginning and ending times of reception, transmission, and occultation. PREDICTS is applicable to S-, X-, and Ka-band signals and can accommodate the following link configurations: (1) one-way (spacecraft to ground), (2) two-way (from a ground station to a spacecraft to the same ground station), and (3) three-way (from a ground transmitting station to a spacecraft to a different ground receiving station).

Microgravity Propellant Tank Geyser Analysis and Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thornton, Randall J.; Hochstein, John I.; Turner, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

An established correlation for geyser height prediction of an axial jet inflow into a microgravity propellant tank was analyzed and an effort to develop an improved correlation was made. The original correlation, developed using data from ethanol flow in small-scale drop tower tests, uses the jet-Weber number and the jet-Bond number to predict geyser height. A new correlation was developed from the same set of experimental data using the jet-Weber number and both the jet-Bond number and tank-Bond number to describe the geyser formation. The resulting correlation produced nearly a 40% reduction in geyser height predictive error compared to the original correlation with experimental data. Two additional tanks were computationally modeled in addition to the small-scale tank used in the drop tower testing. One of these tanks was a 50% enlarged small-scale tank and the other a full-scale 2 m radius tank. Simulations were also run for liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. Results indicated that the new correlation outperformed the original correlation in geyser height prediction under most circumstances. The new correlation has also shown a superior ability to recognize the difference between flow patterns II (geyser formation only) and III (pooling at opposite end of tank from the bulk fluid region).

Time series analysis as input for clinical predictive modeling: Modeling cardiac arrest in a pediatric ICU

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. Methods We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Results Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of

Time series analysis as input for clinical predictive modeling: modeling cardiac arrest in a pediatric ICU.

PubMed

Kennedy, Curtis E; Turley, James P

2011-10-24

Thousands of children experience cardiac arrest events every year in pediatric intensive care units. Most of these children die. Cardiac arrest prediction tools are used as part of medical emergency team evaluations to identify patients in standard hospital beds that are at high risk for cardiac arrest. There are no models to predict cardiac arrest in pediatric intensive care units though, where the risk of an arrest is 10 times higher than for standard hospital beds. Current tools are based on a multivariable approach that does not characterize deterioration, which often precedes cardiac arrests. Characterizing deterioration requires a time series approach. The purpose of this study is to propose a method that will allow for time series data to be used in clinical prediction models. Successful implementation of these methods has the potential to bring arrest prediction to the pediatric intensive care environment, possibly allowing for interventions that can save lives and prevent disabilities. We reviewed prediction models from nonclinical domains that employ time series data, and identified the steps that are necessary for building predictive models using time series clinical data. We illustrate the method by applying it to the specific case of building a predictive model for cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Time course analysis studies from genomic analysis provided a modeling template that was compatible with the steps required to develop a model from clinical time series data. The steps include: 1) selecting candidate variables; 2) specifying measurement parameters; 3) defining data format; 4) defining time window duration and resolution; 5) calculating latent variables for candidate variables not directly measured; 6) calculating time series features as latent variables; 7) creating data subsets to measure model performance effects attributable to various classes of candidate variables; 8) reducing the number of candidate features; 9

Application of neural networks and sensitivity analysis to improved prediction of trauma survival.

PubMed

Hunter, A; Kennedy, L; Henry, J; Ferguson, I

2000-05-01

The performance of trauma departments is widely audited by applying predictive models that assess probability of survival, and examining the rate of unexpected survivals and deaths. Although the TRISS methodology, a logistic regression modelling technique, is still the de facto standard, it is known that neural network models perform better. A key issue when applying neural network models is the selection of input variables. This paper proposes a novel form of sensitivity analysis, which is simpler to apply than existing techniques, and can be used for both numeric and nominal input variables. The technique is applied to the audit survival problem, and used to analyse the TRISS variables. The conclusions discuss the implications for the design of further improved scoring schemes and predictive models.

Longitudinal Discriminant Analysis of Hemoglobin Level for Predicting Preeclampsia

PubMed Central

Nasiri, Malihe; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Alavi Majd, Hamid; Zayeri, Farid; Kariman, Noorosadat; Safavi Ardebili, Nastaran

2015-01-01

Background: Preeclampsia is one of the most serious complications during pregnancy with important effects on health of mother and fetus that causes maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. This study was performed to evaluate whether high levels of hemoglobin may increase the risk of preeclampsia. Objectives: The present study aimed to predict preeclampsia by the hemoglobin profiles through longitudinal discriminant analysis and comparing the error rate of discrimination in longitudinal and cross sectional data. Patients and Methods: In a prospective cohort study from October 2010 to July 2011, 650 pregnant women referred to the prenatal clinic of Milad Hospital in Tehran were evaluated in 3 stages. The hemoglobin level of each woman was measured in the first, second, and third trimester of pregnancy by an expert technician. The subjects were followed up to delivery and preeclampsia was the main outcome under study. The covariance pattern and linear-mixed effects models are common methods that were applied for discriminant analysis of longitudinal data. Also Student t, Mann-Whitney U, and chi-square tests were used for comparing the demographic and clinical characteristics between two groups. Statistical analyses were performed using the SAS software version 9.1. Results: The prevalence rate of preeclampsia was 7.2% (47 women). The women with preeclampsia had a higher mean of hemoglobin values and the difference was 0.46 g/dL (P = 0.003). Also the mean of hemoglobin in the first trimester was higher than that of the second trimester, and was lower than that of the third trimester and the differences were significant (P = 0.015 and P < 0.001, respectively). The sensitivity for longitudinal data and cross-sectional data in three trimesters was 90%, 67%, 72%, and 54% and the specificity was 88%, 55%, 63%, and 50%, respectively. Conclusions: The levels of hemoglobin can be used to predict preeclampsia and monitoring the pregnant women and its regular measure in 3

Statistical analysis for understanding and predicting battery degradations in real-life electric vehicle use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barré, Anthony; Suard, Frédéric; Gérard, Mathias; Montaru, Maxime; Riu, Delphine

2014-01-01

This paper describes the statistical analysis of recorded data parameters of electrical battery ageing during electric vehicle use. These data permit traditional battery ageing investigation based on the evolution of the capacity fade and resistance raise. The measured variables are examined in order to explain the correlation between battery ageing and operating conditions during experiments. Such study enables us to identify the main ageing factors. Then, detailed statistical dependency explorations present the responsible factors on battery ageing phenomena. Predictive battery ageing models are built from this approach. Thereby results demonstrate and quantify a relationship between variables and battery ageing global observations, and also allow accurate battery ageing diagnosis through predictive models.

An analysis for high speed propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance prediction. Volume 2: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Egolf, T. Alan; Anderson, Olof L.; Edwards, David E.; Landgrebe, Anton J.

1988-01-01

A user's manual for the computer program developed for the prediction of propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance reported in, An Analysis for High Speed Propeller-Nacelle Aerodynamic Performance Prediction: Volume 1 -- Theory and Application, is presented. The manual describes the computer program mode of operation requirements, input structure, input data requirements and the program output. In addition, it provides the user with documentation of the internal program structure and the software used in the computer program as it relates to the theory presented in Volume 1. Sample input data setups are provided along with selected printout of the program output for one of the sample setups.

Using image analysis to predict the weight of Alaskan salmon of different species.

PubMed

Balaban, Murat O; Unal Sengör, Gülgün F; Gil Soriano, Mario; Guillén Ruiz, Elena

2010-04-01

After harvesting, salmon is sorted by species, size, and quality. This is generally manually done by operators. Automation would bring repeatability, objectivity, and record-keeping capabilities to these tasks. Machine vision (MV) and image analysis have been used in sorting many agricultural products. Four salmon species were tested: pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), red (Oncorhynchus nerka), silver (Oncorhynchus kisutch), and chum (Oncorhynchus keta). A total of 60 whole fish from each species were first weighed, then placed in a light box to take their picture. Weight compared with view area as well as length and width correlations were developed. In addition the effect of "hump" development (see text) of pink salmon on this correlation was investigated. It was possible to predict the weight of a salmon by view area, regardless of species, and regardless of the development of a hump for pinks. Within pink salmon there was a small but insignificant difference between predictive equations for the weight of "regular" fish and "humpy" fish. Machine vision can accurately predict the weight of whole salmon for sorting.

Clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying rasch analysis in predicting of cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Yoo, Doo Han; Lee, Jae Shin

2016-07-01

[Purpose] This study examined the clinical usefulness of the clock drawing test applying Rasch analysis for predicting the level of cognitive impairment. [Subjects and Methods] A total of 187 stroke patients with cognitive impairment were enrolled in this study. The 187 patients were evaluated by the clock drawing test developed through Rasch analysis along with the mini-mental state examination of cognitive evaluation tool. An analysis of the variance was performed to examine the significance of the mini-mental state examination and the clock drawing test according to the general characteristics of the subjects. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to determine the cutoff point for cognitive impairment and to calculate the sensitivity and specificity values. [Results] The results of comparison of the clock drawing test with the mini-mental state showed significant differences in according to gender, age, education, and affected side. A total CDT of 10.5, which was selected as the cutoff point to identify cognitive impairement, showed a sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, positive predictive, and negative predicive values of 86.4%, 91.5%, 0.8, 95%, and 88.2%. [Conclusion] The clock drawing test is believed to be useful in assessments and interventions based on its excellent ability to identify cognitive disorders.

Predicting Esophagitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palma, David A., E-mail: david.palma@uwo.ca; Senan, Suresh; Oberije, Cary

Purpose: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) improves survival compared with sequential treatment for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, but it increases toxicity, particularly radiation esophagitis (RE). Validated predictors of RE for clinical use are lacking. We performed an individual-patient-data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant RE. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 1082 patients who underwent CCRT, including patients from Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (2/3 vs 1/3 of patients). Factors predictive of RE (grade ≥2 and grade ≥3) weremore » assessed using logistic modeling, with the concordance statistic (c statistic) used to evaluate the performance of each model. Results: The median radiation therapy dose delivered was 65 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.1 years. Most patients (91%) received platinum-containing CCRT regimens. The development of RE was common, scored as grade 2 in 348 patients (32.2%), grade 3 in 185 (17.1%), and grade 4 in 10 (0.9%). There were no RE-related deaths. On univariable analysis using the training set, several baseline factors were statistically predictive of RE (P<.05), but only dosimetric factors had good discrimination scores (c > .60). On multivariable analysis, the esophageal volume receiving ≥60 Gy (V60) alone emerged as the best predictor of grade ≥2 and grade ≥3 RE, with good calibration and discrimination. Recursive partitioning identified 3 risk groups: low (V60 <0.07%), intermediate (V60 0.07% to 16.99%), and high (V60 ≥17%). With use of the validation set, the predictive model performed inferiorly for the grade ≥2 endpoint (c = .58) but performed well for the grade ≥3 endpoint (c = .66). Conclusions: Clinically significant RE is common, but life-threatening complications occur in <1% of patients. Although several

An analysis, sensitivity and prediction of winter fog events using FASP model over Indo-Gangetic plains, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, S. K., Sr.; Sharma, D. A.; Sachdeva, K.

2017-12-01

Indo-Gangetic plains of India experience severe fog conditions during the peak winter months of December and January every year. In this paper an attempt has been to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over Indo-Gangetic plains. Further, an attempt has also been made to configure an efficient meso-scale numerical weather prediction model using different parameterization schemes and develop a forecasting tool for prediction of fog during winter months over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study revealed that an alarming increasing positive trend of fog frequency prevails over many locations of IGP. Hot spot and cluster analysis were conducted to identify the high fog prone zones using GIS and inferential statistical tools respectively. Hot spots on an average experiences fog on 68.27% days, it is followed by moderate and cold spots with 48.03% and 21.79% respectively. The study proposes a new FASP (Fog Analysis, sensitivity and prediction) Model for overall analysis and prediction of fog at a particular location and period over IGP. In the first phase of this model long term climatological fog data of a location is analyzed to determine its characteristics and prevailing trend using various advanced statistical techniques. During a second phase a sensitivity test is conducted with different combination of parameterization schemes to determine the most suitable combination for fog simulation over a particular location and period and in the third and final phase, first ARIMA model is used to predict the number of fog days in future . Thereafter, Numerical model is used to predict the various meteorological parameters favourable for fog forecast. Finally, Hybrid model is used for fog forecast over the study location. The results of the FASP model are validated with actual ground based fog data using statistical tools. Forecast Fog-gram generated using hybrid model during Jan 2017 shows highly encouraging results for fog occurrence/Non occurrence between

Short-range prediction of a heavy precipitation event by assimilating Chinese CINRAD-SA radar reflectivity data using complex cloud analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, C.; Gao, S.; Xue, M.

2006-11-01

With the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) Data Analysis System (ADAS) and its complex cloud analysis scheme, the reflectivity data from a Chinese CINRAD-SA Doppler radar are used to analyze 3D cloud and hydrometeor fields and in-cloud temperature and moisture. Forecast experiments starting from such initial conditions are performed for a northern China heavy rainfall event to examine the impact of the reflectivity data and other conventional observations on short-range precipitation forecast. The full 3D cloud analysis mitigates the commonly known spin-up problem with precipitation forecast, resulting a significant improvement in precipitation forecast in the first 4 to 5 hours. In such a case, the position, timing and amount of precipitation are all accurately predicted. When the cloud analysis is used without in-cloud temperature adjustment, only the forecast of light precipitation within the first hour is improved. Additional analysis of surface and upper-air observations on the native ARPS grid, using the 1 degree real-time NCEP AVN analysis as the background, helps improve the location and intensity of rainfall forecasting slightly. Hourly accumulated rainfall estimated from radar reflectivity data is found to be less accurate than the model predicted precipitation when full cloud analysis is used.

Profile analysis and prediction of tissue-specific CpG island methylation classes

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The computational prediction of DNA methylation has become an important topic in the recent years due to its role in the epigenetic control of normal and cancer-related processes. While previous prediction approaches focused merely on differences between methylated and unmethylated DNA sequences, recent experimental results have shown the presence of much more complex patterns of methylation across tissues and time in the human genome. These patterns are only partially described by a binary model of DNA methylation. In this work we propose a novel approach, based on profile analysis of tissue-specific methylation that uncovers significant differences in the sequences of CpG islands (CGIs) that predispose them to a tissue- specific methylation pattern. Results We defined CGI methylation profiles that separate not only between constitutively methylated and unmethylated CGIs, but also identify CGIs showing a differential degree of methylation across tissues and cell-types or a lack of methylation exclusively in sperm. These profiles are clearly distinguished by a number of CGI attributes including their evolutionary conservation, their significance, as well as the evolutionary evidence of prior methylation. Additionally, we assess profile functionality with respect to the different compartments of protein coding genes and their possible use in the prediction of DNA methylation. Conclusion Our approach provides new insights into the biological features that determine if a CGI has a functional role in the epigenetic control of gene expression and the features associated with CGI methylation susceptibility. Moreover, we show that the ability to predict CGI methylation is based primarily on the quality of the biological information used and the relationships uncovered between different sources of knowledge. The strategy presented here is able to predict, besides the constitutively methylated and unmethylated classes, two more tissue specific methylation classes

An Update on Experimental Climate Prediction and Analysis Products Being Developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system.

Bayesian Poisson hierarchical models for crash data analysis: Investigating the impact of model choice on site-specific predictions.

PubMed

Khazraee, S Hadi; Johnson, Valen; Lord, Dominique

2018-08-01

The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) regression models are among the most popular means for motor vehicle crash data analysis. Both models belong to the Poisson-hierarchical family of models. While numerous studies have compared the overall performance of alternative Bayesian Poisson-hierarchical models, little research has addressed the impact of model choice on the expected crash frequency prediction at individual sites. This paper sought to examine whether there are any trends among candidate models predictions e.g., that an alternative model's prediction for sites with certain conditions tends to be higher (or lower) than that from another model. In addition to the PG and PLN models, this research formulated a new member of the Poisson-hierarchical family of models: the Poisson-inverse gamma (PIGam). Three field datasets (from Texas, Michigan and Indiana) covering a wide range of over-dispersion characteristics were selected for analysis. This study demonstrated that the model choice can be critical when the calibrated models are used for prediction at new sites, especially when the data are highly over-dispersed. For all three datasets, the PIGam model would predict higher expected crash frequencies than would the PLN and PG models, in order, indicating a clear link between the models predictions and the shape of their mixing distributions (i.e., gamma, lognormal, and inverse gamma, respectively). The thicker tail of the PIGam and PLN models (in order) may provide an advantage when the data are highly over-dispersed. The analysis results also illustrated a major deficiency of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) in comparing the goodness-of-fit of hierarchical models; models with drastically different set of coefficients (and thus predictions for new sites) may yield similar DIC values, because the DIC only accounts for the parameters in the lowest (observation) level of the hierarchy and ignores the higher levels (regression coefficients

A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.

PubMed

Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Luo, Jiayou; Zheng, Jianfei; Zeng, Rong; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun; Ouyang, Na

2016-11-23

A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model. In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P < 0.001). Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846. The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.

The Role of Teamwork in the Analysis of Big Data: A Study of Visual Analytics and Box Office Prediction.

PubMed

Buchanan, Verica; Lu, Yafeng; McNeese, Nathan; Steptoe, Michael; Maciejewski, Ross; Cooke, Nancy

2017-03-01

Historically, domains such as business intelligence would require a single analyst to engage with data, develop a model, answer operational questions, and predict future behaviors. However, as the problems and domains become more complex, organizations are employing teams of analysts to explore and model data to generate knowledge. Furthermore, given the rapid increase in data collection, organizations are struggling to develop practices for intelligence analysis in the era of big data. Currently, a variety of machine learning and data mining techniques are available to model data and to generate insights and predictions, and developments in the field of visual analytics have focused on how to effectively link data mining algorithms with interactive visuals to enable analysts to explore, understand, and interact with data and data models. Although studies have explored the role of single analysts in the visual analytics pipeline, little work has explored the role of teamwork and visual analytics in the analysis of big data. In this article, we present an experiment integrating statistical models, visual analytics techniques, and user experiments to study the role of teamwork in predictive analytics. We frame our experiment around the analysis of social media data for box office prediction problems and compare the prediction performance of teams, groups, and individuals. Our results indicate that a team's performance is mediated by the team's characteristics such as openness of individual members to others' positions and the type of planning that goes into the team's analysis. These findings have important implications for how organizations should create teams in order to make effective use of information from their analytic models.

Prognostic and predictive value of VHL gene alteration in renal cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis and review

PubMed Central

Kim, Bum Jun; Kim, Jung Han; Kim, Hyeong Su; Zang, Dae Young

2017-01-01

The von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) gene is often inactivated in sporadic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) by mutation or promoter hypermethylation. The prognostic or predictive value of VHL gene alteration is not well established. We conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the association between the VHL alteration and clinical outcomes in patients with RCC. We searched PUBMED, MEDLINE and EMBASE for articles including following terms in their titles, abstracts, or keywords: ‘kidney or renal’, ‘carcinoma or cancer or neoplasm or malignancy’, ‘von Hippel-Lindau or VHL’, ‘alteration or mutation or methylation’, and ‘prognostic or predictive’. There were six studies fulfilling inclusion criteria and a total of 633 patients with clear cell RCC were included in the study: 244 patients who received anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy in the predictive value analysis and 419 in the prognostic value analysis. Out of 663 patients, 410 (61.8%) had VHL alteration. The meta-analysis showed no association between the VHL gene alteration and overall response rate (relative risk = 1.47 [95% CI, 0.81-2.67], P = 0.20) or progression free survival (hazard ratio = 1.02 [95% CI, 0.72-1.44], P = 0.91) in patients with RCC who received VEGF-targeted therapy. There was also no correlation between the VHL alteration and overall survival (HR = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.14], P = 0.21). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that VHL gene alteration has no prognostic or predictive value in patients with clear cell RCC. PMID:28103578

Prediction of hearing outcomes by multiple regression analysis in patients with idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

PubMed

Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki

2014-12-01

This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.

Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Du, W. P.

2017-02-01

The PM2.5 problem is proving to be a major public crisis and is of great public-concern requiring an urgent response. Information about, and prediction of PM2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric dynamic theory is still limited due to the complexity of the formation and development of PM2.5. In this paper, we attempted to realize the relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China, using multi-source data mining. A correlation analysis model of PM2.5 to physical data (meteorological data, including regional average rainfall, daily mean temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and other pollutant concentration data, including CO, NO2, SO2, PM10) and social media data (microblog data) was proposed, based on the Multivariate Statistical Analysis method. The study found that during these factors, the value of average wind speed, the concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, and the daily number of microblog entries with key words 'Beijing; Air pollution' show high mathematical correlation with PM2.5 concentrations. The correlation analysis was further studied based on a big data's machine learning model- Back Propagation Neural Network (hereinafter referred to as BPNN) model. It was found that the BPNN method performs better in correlation mining. Finally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (hereinafter referred to as ARIMA) Time Series model was applied in this paper to explore the prediction of PM2.5 in the short-term time series. The predicted results were in good agreement with the observed data. This study is useful for helping realize real-time monitoring, analysis and pre-warning of PM2.5 and it also helps to broaden the application of big data and the multi-source data mining methods.

Predicting the aquatic toxicity mode of action using logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Ren, Y Y; Zhou, L C; Yang, L; Liu, P Y; Zhao, B W; Liu, H X

2016-09-01

The paper highlights the use of the logistic regression (LR) method in the construction of acceptable statistically significant, robust and predictive models for the classification of chemicals according to their aquatic toxic modes of action. Essentials accounting for a reliable model were all considered carefully. The model predictors were selected by stepwise forward discriminant analysis (LDA) from a combined pool of experimental data and chemical structure-based descriptors calculated by the CODESSA and DRAGON software packages. Model predictive ability was validated both internally and externally. The applicability domain was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability. The obtained models are simple and easy to interpret. In general, LR performs much better than LDA and seems to be more attractive for the prediction of the more toxic compounds, i.e. compounds that exhibit excess toxicity versus non-polar narcotic compounds and more reactive compounds versus less reactive compounds. In addition, model fit and regression diagnostics was done through the influence plot which reflects the hat-values, studentized residuals, and Cook's distance statistics of each sample. Overdispersion was also checked for the LR model. The relationships between the descriptors and the aquatic toxic behaviour of compounds are also discussed.

CFD Analysis of Swing of Cricket Ball and Trajectory Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

G, Jithin; Tom, Josin; Ruishikesh, Kamat; Jose, Jyothish; Kumar, Sanjay

2013-11-01

This work aims to understand the aerodynamics associated with the flight and swing of a cricket ball and predict its flight trajectory over the course of the game: at start (smooth ball) and as the game progresses (rough ball). Asymmetric airflow over the ball due to seam orientation and surface roughness can cause flight deviation (swing). The values of Drag, Lift and Side forces which are crucial for determining the trajectory of the ball were found with the help of FLUENT using the standard K- ɛ model. Analysis was done to study how the ball velocity, spin imparted to be ball and the tilt of the seam affects the movement of the ball through air. The governing force balance equations in 3 dimensions in combination a MATLAB code which used Heun's method was used for obtaining the trajectory of the ball. The conditions for the conventional swing and reverse swing to occur were deduced from the analysis and found to be in alignment with the real life situation. Critical seam angle for maximum swing and transition speed for normal to reverse swing were found out. The obtained trajectories were compared to real life hawk eye trajectories for validation. The analysis results were in good agreement with the real life situation.

Genome-Wide Prediction and Analysis of 3D-Domain Swapped Proteins in the Human Genome from Sequence Information.

PubMed

Upadhyay, Atul Kumar; Sowdhamini, Ramanathan

2016-01-01

3D-domain swapping is one of the mechanisms of protein oligomerization and the proteins exhibiting this phenomenon have many biological functions. These proteins, which undergo domain swapping, have acquired much attention owing to their involvement in human diseases, such as conformational diseases, amyloidosis, serpinopathies, proteionopathies etc. Early realisation of proteins in the whole human genome that retain tendency to domain swap will enable many aspects of disease control management. Predictive models were developed by using machine learning approaches with an average accuracy of 78% (85.6% of sensitivity, 87.5% of specificity and an MCC value of 0.72) to predict putative domain swapping in protein sequences. These models were applied to many complete genomes with special emphasis on the human genome. Nearly 44% of the protein sequences in the human genome were predicted positive for domain swapping. Enrichment analysis was performed on the positively predicted sequences from human genome for their domain distribution, disease association and functional importance based on Gene Ontology (GO). Enrichment analysis was also performed to infer a better understanding of the functional importance of these sequences. Finally, we developed hinge region prediction, in the given putative domain swapped sequence, by using important physicochemical properties of amino acids.

Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, T.; Lee, D.; Choi, J.

2016-05-03

To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables ofmore » recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.« less

PredictABEL: an R package for the assessment of risk prediction models.

PubMed

Kundu, Suman; Aulchenko, Yurii S; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2011-04-01

The rapid identification of genetic markers for multifactorial diseases from genome-wide association studies is fuelling interest in investigating the predictive ability and health care utility of genetic risk models. Various measures are available for the assessment of risk prediction models, each addressing a different aspect of performance and utility. We developed PredictABEL, a package in R that covers descriptive tables, measures and figures that are used in the analysis of risk prediction studies such as measures of model fit, predictive ability and clinical utility, and risk distributions, calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristic plot. Tables and figures are saved as separate files in a user-specified format, which include publication-quality EPS and TIFF formats. All figures are available in a ready-made layout, but they can be customized to the preferences of the user. The package has been developed for the analysis of genetic risk prediction studies, but can also be used for studies that only include non-genetic risk factors. PredictABEL is freely available at the websites of GenABEL ( http://www.genabel.org ) and CRAN ( http://cran.r-project.org/).

Predict-first experimental analysis using automated and integrated magnetohydrodynamic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lyons, B. C.; Paz-Soldan, C.; Meneghini, O.

An integrated-modeling workflow has been developed in this paper for the purpose of performing predict-first analysis of transient-stability experiments. Starting from an existing equilibrium reconstruction from a past experiment, the workflow couples together the EFIT Grad-Shafranov solver [L. Lao et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 48, 968 (2005)], the EPED model for the pedestal structure [P. B. Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 056118 (2009)], and the NEO drift-kinetic-equation solver [E. A. Belli and J. Candy, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 015015 (2012)] (for bootstrap current calculations) in order to generate equilibria with self-consistent pedestal structures as the plasma shape andmore » various scalar parameters (e.g., normalized β, pedestal density, and edge safety factor [q 95]) are changed. These equilibria are then analyzed using automated M3D-C1 extended-magnetohydrodynamic modeling [S. C. Jardin et al., Comput. Sci. Discovery 5, 014002 (2012)] to compute the plasma response to three-dimensional magnetic perturbations. This workflow was created in conjunction with a DIII-D experiment examining the effect of triangularity on the 3D plasma response. Several versions of the workflow were developed, and the initial ones were used to help guide experimental planning (e.g., determining the plasma current necessary to maintain the constant edge safety factor in various shapes). Subsequent validation with the experimental results was then used to revise the workflow, ultimately resulting in the complete model presented here. We show that quantitative agreement was achieved between the M3D-C1 plasma response calculated for equilibria generated by the final workflow and equilibria reconstructed from experimental data. A comparison of results from earlier workflows is used to show the importance of properly matching certain experimental parameters in the generated equilibria, including the normalized β, pedestal density, and q 95. On the other hand, the

Predict-first experimental analysis using automated and integrated magnetohydrodynamic modeling

DOE PAGES

Lyons, B. C.; Paz-Soldan, C.; Meneghini, O.; ...

2018-05-07

An integrated-modeling workflow has been developed in this paper for the purpose of performing predict-first analysis of transient-stability experiments. Starting from an existing equilibrium reconstruction from a past experiment, the workflow couples together the EFIT Grad-Shafranov solver [L. Lao et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 48, 968 (2005)], the EPED model for the pedestal structure [P. B. Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 056118 (2009)], and the NEO drift-kinetic-equation solver [E. A. Belli and J. Candy, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 015015 (2012)] (for bootstrap current calculations) in order to generate equilibria with self-consistent pedestal structures as the plasma shape andmore » various scalar parameters (e.g., normalized β, pedestal density, and edge safety factor [q 95]) are changed. These equilibria are then analyzed using automated M3D-C1 extended-magnetohydrodynamic modeling [S. C. Jardin et al., Comput. Sci. Discovery 5, 014002 (2012)] to compute the plasma response to three-dimensional magnetic perturbations. This workflow was created in conjunction with a DIII-D experiment examining the effect of triangularity on the 3D plasma response. Several versions of the workflow were developed, and the initial ones were used to help guide experimental planning (e.g., determining the plasma current necessary to maintain the constant edge safety factor in various shapes). Subsequent validation with the experimental results was then used to revise the workflow, ultimately resulting in the complete model presented here. We show that quantitative agreement was achieved between the M3D-C1 plasma response calculated for equilibria generated by the final workflow and equilibria reconstructed from experimental data. A comparison of results from earlier workflows is used to show the importance of properly matching certain experimental parameters in the generated equilibria, including the normalized β, pedestal density, and q 95. On the other hand, the

Early improvement with pregabalin predicts endpoint response in patients with generalized anxiety disorder: an integrated and predictive data analysis.

PubMed

Montgomery, Stuart A; Lyndon, Gavin; Almas, Mary; Whalen, Ed; Prieto, Rita

2017-01-01

Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), a common mental disorder, has several treatment options including pregabalin. Not all patients respond to treatment; quickly determining which patients will respond is an important treatment goal. Patient-level data were pooled from nine phase II and III randomized, double-blind, short-term, placebo-controlled trials of pregabalin for the treatment of GAD. Efficacy outcomes included the change from baseline in the Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A) total score and psychic and somatic subscales. Predictive modelling assessed baseline characteristics and early clinical responses to determine those predictive of clinical improvement at endpoint. A total of 2155 patients were included in the analysis (1447 pregabalin, 708 placebo). Pregabalin significantly improved the HAM-A total score compared with the placebo at endpoint, treatment difference (95% confidence interval), -2.61 (-3.21 to -2.01), P<0.0001. Pregabalin significantly improved HAM-A psychic and somatic scores compared with placebo, -1.52 (-1.85 to -1.18), P<0.0001, and -1.10 (-1.41 to -0.80), P<0.0001, respectively. Response to pregabalin in the first 1-2 weeks (≥20 or ≥30% improvement in HAM-A total, psychic or somatic score) was predictive of an endpoint greater than or equal to 50% improvement in the HAM-A total score. Pregabalin is an effective treatment option for patients with GAD. Patients with early response to pregabalin are more likely to respond significantly at endpoint.

Urinary Squamous Epithelial Cells Do Not Accurately Predict Urine Culture Contamination, but May Predict Urinalysis Performance in Predicting Bacteriuria.

PubMed

Mohr, Nicholas M; Harland, Karisa K; Crabb, Victoria; Mutnick, Rachel; Baumgartner, David; Spinosi, Stephanie; Haarstad, Michael; Ahmed, Azeemuddin; Schweizer, Marin; Faine, Brett

2016-03-01

The presence of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) has been advocated to identify urinary contamination despite a paucity of evidence supporting this practice. We sought to determine the value of using quantitative SECs as a predictor of urinalysis contamination. Retrospective cross-sectional study of adults (≥18 years old) presenting to a tertiary academic medical center who had urinalysis with microscopy and urine culture performed. Patients with missing or implausible demographic data were excluded (2.5% of total sample). The primary analysis aimed to determine an SEC threshold that predicted urine culture contamination using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. The a priori secondary analysis explored how demographic variables (age, sex, body mass index) may modify the SEC test performance and whether SECs impacted traditional urinalysis indicators of bacteriuria. A total of 19,328 records were included. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SEC count was a poor predictor of urine culture contamination (area under the ROC curve = 0.680, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.671 to 0.689). In secondary analysis, the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of predicting bacteriuria via urinalysis among noncontaminated specimens was 4.98 (95% CI = 4.59 to 5.40) in the absence of SECs, but the LR+ fell to 2.35 (95% CI = 2.17 to 2.54) for samples with more than 8 SECs/low-powered field (lpf). In an independent validation cohort, urinalysis samples with fewer than 8 SECs/lpf predicted bacteriuria better (sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 84%) than samples with more than 8 SECs/lpf (sensitivity = 86%, specificity = 70%; diagnostic odds ratio = 17.5 [14.9 to 20.7] vs. 8.7 [7.3 to 10.5]). Squamous epithelial cells are a poor predictor of urine culture contamination, but may predict poor predictive performance of traditional urinalysis measures. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: A guide to using PEST for model-parameter and predictive-uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, John E.; Hunt, Randall J.; Tonkin, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

Analysis of the uncertainty associated with parameters used by a numerical model, and with predictions that depend on those parameters, is fundamental to the use of modeling in support of decisionmaking. Unfortunately, predictive uncertainty analysis with regard to models can be very computationally demanding, due in part to complex constraints on parameters that arise from expert knowledge of system properties on the one hand (knowledge constraints) and from the necessity for the model parameters to assume values that allow the model to reproduce historical system behavior on the other hand (calibration constraints). Enforcement of knowledge and calibration constraints on parameters used by a model does not eliminate the uncertainty in those parameters. In fact, in many cases, enforcement of calibration constraints simply reduces the uncertainties associated with a number of broad-scale combinations of model parameters that collectively describe spatially averaged system properties. The uncertainties associated with other combinations of parameters, especially those that pertain to small-scale parameter heterogeneity, may not be reduced through the calibration process. To the extent that a prediction depends on system-property detail, its postcalibration variability may be reduced very little, if at all, by applying calibration constraints; knowledge constraints remain the only limits on the variability of predictions that depend on such detail. Regrettably, in many common modeling applications, these constraints are weak. Though the PEST software suite was initially developed as a tool for model calibration, recent developments have focused on the evaluation of model-parameter and predictive uncertainty. As a complement to functionality that it provides for highly parameterized inversion (calibration) by means of formal mathematical regularization techniques, the PEST suite provides utilities for linear and nonlinear error-variance and uncertainty analysis in

Design and analysis of forward and reverse models for predicting defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions

DOE PAGES

Stewart, James A.; Kohnert, Aaron A.; Capolungo, Laurent; ...

2018-03-06

The complexity of radiation effects in a material’s microstructure makes developing predictive models a difficult task. In principle, a complete list of all possible reactions between defect species being considered can be used to elucidate damage evolution mechanisms and its associated impact on microstructure evolution. However, a central limitation is that many models use a limited and incomplete catalog of defect energetics and associated reactions. Even for a given model, estimating its input parameters remains a challenge, especially for complex material systems. Here, we present a computational analysis to identify the extent to which defect accumulation, energetics, and irradiation conditionsmore » can be determined via forward and reverse regression models constructed and trained from large data sets produced by cluster dynamics simulations. A global sensitivity analysis, via Sobol’ indices, concisely characterizes parameter sensitivity and demonstrates how this can be connected to variability in defect evolution. Based on this analysis and depending on the definition of what constitutes the input and output spaces, forward and reverse regression models are constructed and allow for the direct calculation of defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions. Here, this computational analysis, exercised on a simplified cluster dynamics model, demonstrates the ability to design predictive surrogate and reduced-order models, and provides guidelines for improving model predictions within the context of forward and reverse engineering of mathematical models for radiation effects in a materials’ microstructure.« less

Design and analysis of forward and reverse models for predicting defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, James A.; Kohnert, Aaron A.; Capolungo, Laurent

The complexity of radiation effects in a material’s microstructure makes developing predictive models a difficult task. In principle, a complete list of all possible reactions between defect species being considered can be used to elucidate damage evolution mechanisms and its associated impact on microstructure evolution. However, a central limitation is that many models use a limited and incomplete catalog of defect energetics and associated reactions. Even for a given model, estimating its input parameters remains a challenge, especially for complex material systems. Here, we present a computational analysis to identify the extent to which defect accumulation, energetics, and irradiation conditionsmore » can be determined via forward and reverse regression models constructed and trained from large data sets produced by cluster dynamics simulations. A global sensitivity analysis, via Sobol’ indices, concisely characterizes parameter sensitivity and demonstrates how this can be connected to variability in defect evolution. Based on this analysis and depending on the definition of what constitutes the input and output spaces, forward and reverse regression models are constructed and allow for the direct calculation of defect accumulation, defect energetics, and irradiation conditions. Here, this computational analysis, exercised on a simplified cluster dynamics model, demonstrates the ability to design predictive surrogate and reduced-order models, and provides guidelines for improving model predictions within the context of forward and reverse engineering of mathematical models for radiation effects in a materials’ microstructure.« less

Men’s Facial Width-to-Height Ratio Predicts Aggression: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Haselhuhn, Michael P.; Ormiston, Margaret E.; Wong, Elaine M.

2015-01-01

Recent research has identified men’s facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a reliable predictor of aggressive tendencies and behavior. Other research, however, has failed to replicate the fWHR-aggression relationship and has questioned whether previous findings are robust. In the current paper, we synthesize existing work by conducting a meta-analysis to estimate whether and how fWHR predicts aggression. Our results indicate a small, but significant, positive relationship between men’s fWHR and aggression. PMID:25849992

Predicting neuropathic ulceration: analysis of static temperature distributions in thermal images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaabouch, Naima; Hu, Wen-Chen; Chen, Yi; Anderson, Julie W.; Ames, Forrest; Paulson, Rolf

2010-11-01

Foot ulcers affect millions of Americans annually. Conventional methods used to assess skin integrity, including inspection and palpation, may be valuable approaches, but they usually do not detect changes in skin integrity until an ulcer has already developed. We analyze the feasibility of thermal imaging as a technique to assess the integrity of the skin and its many layers. Thermal images are analyzed using an asymmetry analysis, combined with a genetic algorithm, to examine the infrared images for early detection of foot ulcers. Preliminary results show that the proposed technique can reliably and efficiently detect inflammation and hence effectively predict potential ulceration.

Prediction of protein structural classes by recurrence quantification analysis based on chaos game representation.

PubMed

Yang, Jian-Yi; Peng, Zhen-Ling; Yu, Zu-Guo; Zhang, Rui-Jie; Anh, Vo; Wang, Desheng

2009-04-21

In this paper, we intend to predict protein structural classes (alpha, beta, alpha+beta, or alpha/beta) for low-homology data sets. Two data sets were used widely, 1189 (containing 1092 proteins) and 25PDB (containing 1673 proteins) with sequence homology being 40% and 25%, respectively. We propose to decompose the chaos game representation of proteins into two kinds of time series. Then, a novel and powerful nonlinear analysis technique, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), is applied to analyze these time series. For a given protein sequence, a total of 16 characteristic parameters can be calculated with RQA, which are treated as feature representation of protein sequences. Based on such feature representation, the structural class for each protein is predicted with Fisher's linear discriminant algorithm. The jackknife test is used to test and compare our method with other existing methods. The overall accuracies with step-by-step procedure are 65.8% and 64.2% for 1189 and 25PDB data sets, respectively. With one-against-others procedure used widely, we compare our method with five other existing methods. Especially, the overall accuracies of our method are 6.3% and 4.1% higher for the two data sets, respectively. Furthermore, only 16 parameters are used in our method, which is less than that used by other methods. This suggests that the current method may play a complementary role to the existing methods and is promising to perform the prediction of protein structural classes.

Rail-highway crossing accident prediction analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report contains technical results that have been produced in a study : to revise and update the DOT rail-highway crossing resource allocation : procedure. This work has resulted in new accident prediction and severity : formulas, a modified and ...

Predicting soil quality indices with near infrared analysis in a wildfire chronosequence.

PubMed

Cécillon, Lauric; Cassagne, Nathalie; Czarnes, Sonia; Gros, Raphaël; Vennetier, Michel; Brun, Jean-Jacques

2009-01-15

We investigated the power of near infrared (NIR) analysis for the quantitative assessment of soil quality in a wildfire chronosequence. The effect of wildfire disturbance and soil engineering activity of earthworms on soil organic matter quality was first assessed with principal component analysis of NIR spectra. Three soil quality indices were further calculated using an adaptation of the method proposed by Velasquez et al. [Velasquez, E., Lavelle, P., Andrade, M. GISQ, a multifunctional indicator of soil quality. Soil Biol Biochem 2007; 39: 3066-3080.], each one addressing an ecosystem service provided by soils: organic matter storage, nutrient supply and biological activity. Partial least squares regression models were developed to test the predicting ability of NIR analysis for these soil quality indices. All models reached coefficients of determination above 0.90 and ratios of performance to deviation above 2.8. This finding provides new opportunities for the monitoring of soil quality, using NIR scanning of soil samples.

An integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach for improved streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; He, M.; Franz, K. J.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2010-12-01

The current study presents an integrated uncertainty analysis and data assimilation approach to improve streamflow predictions while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. Study models include the National Weather Service (NWS) operational snow model (SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (SAC-SMA). The proposed approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is configured with the DREAM-identified uncertainty structure and applied to assimilating snow water equivalent data into the SNOW17 model for improved snowmelt simulations. Snowmelt estimates then serves as an input to the SAC-SMA model to provide streamflow predictions at the basin outlet. The robustness and usefulness of the approach is evaluated for a snow-dominated watershed in the northern Sierra Mountains. This presentation describes the implementation of DREAM and EnKF into the coupled SNOW17 and SAC-SMA models and summarizes study results and findings.

[Research on engine remaining useful life prediction based on oil spectrum analysis and particle filtering].

PubMed

Sun, Lei; Jia, Yun-xian; Cai, Li-ying; Lin, Guo-yu; Zhao, Jin-song

2013-09-01

The spectrometric oil analysis(SOA) is an important technique for machine state monitoring, fault diagnosis and prognosis, and SOA based remaining useful life(RUL) prediction has an advantage of finding out the optimal maintenance strategy for machine system. Because the complexity of machine system, its health state degradation process can't be simply characterized by linear model, while particle filtering(PF) possesses obvious advantages over traditional Kalman filtering for dealing nonlinear and non-Gaussian system, the PF approach was applied to state forecasting by SOA, and the RUL prediction technique based on SOA and PF algorithm is proposed. In the prediction model, according to the estimating result of system's posterior probability, its prior probability distribution is realized, and the multi-step ahead prediction model based on PF algorithm is established. Finally, the practical SOA data of some engine was analyzed and forecasted by the above method, and the forecasting result was compared with that of traditional Kalman filtering method. The result fully shows the superiority and effectivity of the

A comparative analysis of primary and secondary Gleason pattern predictive ability for positive surgical margins after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Sfoungaristos, S; Kavouras, A; Kanatas, P; Polimeros, N; Perimenis, P

2011-01-01

To compare the predictive ability of primary and secondary Gleason pattern for positive surgical margins in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer and a preoperative Gleason score ≤ 6. A retrospective analysis of the medical records of patients undergone a radical prostatectomy between January 2005 and October 2010 was conducted. Patients' age, prostate volume, preoperative PSA, biopsy Gleason score, the 1st and 2nd Gleason pattern were entered a univariate and multivariate analysis. The 1st and 2nd pattern were tested for their ability to predict positive surgical margins using receiver operating characteristic curves. Positive surgical margins were noticed in 56 cases (38.1%) out of 147 studied patients. The 2nd pattern was significantly greater in those with positive surgical margins while the 1st pattern was not significantly different between the 2 groups of patients. ROC analysis revealed that area under the curve was 0.53 (p=0.538) for the 1st pattern and 0.60 (p=0.048) for the 2nd pattern. Concerning the cases with PSA <10 ng/ml, it was also found that only the 2nd pattern had a predictive ability (p=0.050). When multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted it was found that the 2nd pattern was the only independent predictor. The second Gleason pattern was found to be of higher value than the 1st one for the prediction of positive surgical margins in patients with preoperative Gleason score ≤ 6 and this should be considered especially when a neurovascular bundle sparing radical prostatectomy is planned, in order not to harm the oncological outcome.

Simple prediction method of lumbar lordosis for planning of lumbar corrective surgery: radiological analysis in a Korean population.

PubMed

Lee, Chong Suh; Chung, Sung Soo; Park, Se Jun; Kim, Dong Min; Shin, Seong Kee

2014-01-01

This study aimed at deriving a lordosis predictive equation using the pelvic incidence and to establish a simple prediction method of lumbar lordosis for planning lumbar corrective surgery in Asians. Eighty-six asymptomatic volunteers were enrolled in the study. The maximal lumbar lordosis (MLL), lower lumbar lordosis (LLL), pelvic incidence (PI), and sacral slope (SS) were measured. The correlations between the parameters were analyzed using Pearson correlation analysis. Predictive equations of lumbar lordosis through simple regression analysis of the parameters and simple predictive values of lumbar lordosis using PI were derived. The PI strongly correlated with the SS (r = 0.78), and a strong correlation was found between the SS and LLL (r = 0.89), and between the SS and MLL (r = 0.83). Based on these correlations, the predictive equations of lumbar lordosis were found (SS = 0.80 + 0.74 PI (r = 0.78, R (2) = 0.61), LLL = 5.20 + 0.87 SS (r = 0.89, R (2) = 0.80), MLL = 17.41 + 0.96 SS (r = 0.83, R (2) = 0.68). When PI was between 30° to 35°, 40° to 50° and 55° to 60°, the equations predicted that MLL would be PI + 10°, PI + 5° and PI, and LLL would be PI - 5°, PI - 10° and PI - 15°, respectively. This simple calculation method can provide a more appropriate and simpler prediction of lumbar lordosis for Asian populations. The prediction of lumbar lordosis should be used as a reference for surgeons planning to restore the lumbar lordosis in lumbar corrective surgery.

Predictive and Reactive Locomotor Adaptability in Healthy Elderly: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bohm, Sebastian; Mademli, Lida; Mersmann, Falk; Arampatzis, Adamantios

2015-12-01

Locomotor adaptability is based on the implementation of error-feedback information from previous perturbations to predictively adapt to expected perturbations (feedforward) and to facilitate reactive responses in recurring unexpected perturbations ('savings'). The effect of aging on predictive and reactive adaptability is yet unclear. However, such understanding is fundamental for the design and application of effective interventions targeting fall prevention. We systematically searched the Web of Science, MEDLINE, Embase and Science Direct databases as well as the reference lists of the eligible articles. A study was included if it addressed an investigation of the locomotor adaptability in response to repeated mechanical movement perturbations of healthy older adults (≥60 years). The weighted average effect size (WAES) of the general adaptability (adaptive motor responses to repeated perturbations) as well as predictive (after-effects) and reactive adaptation (feedback responses to a recurring unexpected perturbation) was calculated and tested for an overall effect. A subgroup analysis was performed regarding the factor age group [i.e., young (≤35 years) vs. older adults]. Furthermore, the methodological study quality was assessed. The review process yielded 18 studies [1009 participants, 613 older adults (70 ± 4 years)], which used various kinds of locomotor tasks and perturbations. The WAES for the general locomotor adaptability was 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.74, n = 11] for the older and 1.39 (95% CI 0.90-1.89, n = 10) for the young adults with a significant (p < 0.05) overall effect for both age groups and no significant subgroup differences. Similar results were found for the predictive (older: WAES 1.10, 95% CI 0.37-1.83, n = 8; young: WAES 1.54, 95% CI 0.11-2.97, n = 7) and reactive (older: WAES 1.09, 95% CI 0.22-1.96, n = 5; young: WAES 1.35, 95% CI 0.60-2.09, n = 5) adaptation featuring significant (p < 0.05) overall effects without

Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

PubMed