Sample records for quantification spatialization vulnerability

  1. Spatial vulnerability units - expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

    2009-05-01

    The assessment of vulnerability has moved to centre-stage of the debate between different scientific disciplines related to climate change and disaster risk management. Composed by a combination of social, economical, physical and environmental factors the assessment implies combining different domains as well as quantitative with qualitative data and makes it therefore a challenge to identify an integrated metric for vulnerability. In this paper we define vulnerability in the context of climate change, targeting the hazard "flood". The developed methodology is being tested in the Salzach river catchment in Austria, which is largely prone to floods. The proposed methodology allows the spatial quantification of vulnerability and the identification of vulnerability units. These units build upon the geon concept which acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. Using geons, we are capable of transforming singular domains of information on specific systemic components to policy-relevant, conditioned information. Considering the fact that vulnerability is not directly measurable and due to its complex dimension and social construction an expert-based approach has been chosen. Established methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Delphi exercises and regionalization approaches are being integrated. The method not only enables the assessment of vulnerability independent from administrative boundaries, but also applies an aggregation mode which reflects homogenous vulnerability units. This supports decision makers to reflect on complex issues such as vulnerability. Next to that, the advantage is to decompose the units to their underlying domains. Feedback from disaster management experts indicates that the approach helps to improve the design of measures aimed at strengthening preparedness and mitigation. From this point of view, we reach a step closer towards validation of the

  2. AVQS: attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme for smart grid.

    PubMed

    Ko, Jongbin; Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

    2014-01-01

    A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification.

  3. AVQS: Attack Route-Based Vulnerability Quantification Scheme for Smart Grid

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

    2014-01-01

    A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification. PMID:25152923

  4. Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System.

    PubMed

    Ouyang, Min; Tian, Hui; Wang, Zhenghua; Hong, Liu; Mao, Zijun

    2017-01-17

    This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large-scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district-based SLFs, and circle-shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs-induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the

  6. [Characteristics of temporal-spatial differentiation in landscape pattern vulnerability in Nansihu Lake wetland, China.

    PubMed

    Liang, Jia Xin; Li, Xin Ju

    2018-02-01

    With remote sensing images from 1985, 2000 Lantsat 5 TM and 2015 Lantsat 8 OLI as data sources, we tried to select the suitable research scale and examine the temporal-spatial diffe-rentiation with such scale in the Nansihu Lake wetland by using landscape pattern vulnerability index constructed by sensitivity index and adaptability index, and combined with space statistics such as semivariogram and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that 1 km × 1 km equidistant grid was the suitable research scale, which could eliminate the influence of spatial heterogeneity induced by random factors. From 1985 to 2015, the landscape pattern vulnerability in the Nansihu Lake wetland deteriorated gradually. The high-risk area of landscape pattern vulnerability dramatically expanded with time. The spatial heterogeneity of landscape pattern vulnerability increased, and the influence of non-structural factors on landscape pattern vulnerability strengthened. Spatial variability affected by spatial autocorrelation slightly weakened. Landscape pattern vulnerability had strong general spatial positive correlation, with the significant form of spatial agglomeration. The positive spatial autocorrelation continued to increase and the phenomenon of spatial concentration was more and more obvious over time. The local autocorrelation mainly based on high-high accumulation zone and low-low accumulation zone had stronger spatial autocorrelation among neighboring space units. The high-high accumulation areas showed the strongest level of significance, and the significant level of low-low accumulation zone increased with time. Natural factors, such as temperature and precipitation, affected water-level and landscape distribution, and thus changed the landscape patterns vulnerability of Nansihu Lake wetland. The dominant driver for the deterioration of landscape patterns vulnerability was human activities, including social economy activity and policy system.

  7. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

    PubMed Central

    Cutter, Susan L.; Finch, Christina

    2008-01-01

    During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades. PMID:18268336

  8. [Spatial patterns of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City].

    PubMed

    Li, Jing; Zhang, Ping-Yu; Li, He; Su, Fei

    2011-12-01

    This paper established an index system for the assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City, from the aspects of sensitivity and response capability, and aiming at the major disturbances from crude oil exploitation and production activities. The improved entropy method was adopted to evaluate the weights of the indices, and the spatial patterns of eco-environment vulnerability in the City were analyzed, according to the model functions. In 2009, the more sensitive areas of the eco-environment in the City were mainly concentrated in the intensive regions of crude oil exploitation, processing, and petrochemical industry, and the ecological problems such as land salinization were the secondary causes for this higher sensitivity. The overall response capability of the eco-environment to unfavorable disturbances was relatively high, which reduced the eco-environment vulnerability to some extent. There was a great spatial difference in the eco-environment vulnerability in the City. The vulnerability was comparatively higher in the districts of Honggang, Sartu and Longfeng, with the degree being 0.80, 0.71 and 0.68, but lower in Ranghulu and Datong, with the degree of 0.20 and 0.04, respectively.

  9. Quantification of Spatial Heterogeneity in Old Growth Forst of Korean Pine

    Treesearch

    Wang Zhengquan; Wang Qingcheng; Zhang Yandong

    1997-01-01

    Spatial hetergeneity is a very important issue in studying functions and processes of ecological systems at various scales. Semivariogram analysis is an effective technique to summarize spatial data, and quantification of sptail heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose some principles to use semivariograms to characterize and compare spatial heterogeneity of...

  10. Evaluation on island ecological vulnerability and its spatial heterogeneity.

    PubMed

    Chi, Yuan; Shi, Honghua; Wang, Yuanyuan; Guo, Zhen; Wang, Enkang

    2017-12-15

    The evaluation on island ecological vulnerability (IEV) can help reveal the comprehensive characteristics of the island ecosystem and provide reference for controlling human activities on islands. An IEV evaluation model which reflects the land-sea dual features, natural and anthropogenic attributes, and spatial heterogeneity of the island ecosystem was established, and the southern islands of Miaodao Archipelago in North China were taken as the study area. The IEV, its spatial heterogeneity, and its sensitivities to the evaluation elements were analyzed. Results indicated that the IEV was in status of mild vulnerability in the archipelago scale, and population pressure, ecosystem productivity, environmental quality, landscape pattern, and economic development were the sensitive elements. The IEV showed significant spatial heterogeneities both in land and surrounding waters sub-ecosystems. Construction scale control, optimization of development allocation, improvement of exploitation methods, and reasonable ecological construction are important measures to control the IEV. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model.

    PubMed

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Castro, Marcia C

    2015-01-01

    Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria

  12. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-01-01

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action. PMID:26512681

  13. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    PubMed

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  14. A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Santiago de Chile.

    PubMed

    Inostroza, Luis; Palme, Massimo; de la Barrera, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making.

  15. A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Santiago de Chile

    PubMed Central

    Palme, Massimo; de la Barrera, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will worsen the high levels of urban vulnerability in Latin American cities due to specific environmental stressors. Some impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures in urban environments, have not yet been addressed through adaptation strategies, which are based on poorly supported data. These impacts remain outside the scope of urban planning. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly vulnerable urban areas and include specific adaptation requirements are needed in current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. In this paper, a heat vulnerability index is proposed for Santiago, Chile. The index was created using a GIS-based spatial information system and was constructed from spatially explicit indexes for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity levels derived from remote sensing data and socio-economic information assessed via principal component analysis (PCA). The objective of this study is to determine the levels of heat vulnerability at local scales by providing insights into these indexes at the intra city scale. The results reveal a spatial pattern of heat vulnerability with strong variations among individual spatial indexes. While exposure and adaptive capacities depict a clear spatial pattern, sensitivity follows a complex spatial distribution. These conditions change when examining PCA results, showing that sensitivity is more robust than exposure and adaptive capacity. These indexes can be used both for urban planning purposes and for proposing specific policies and measures that can help minimize heat hazards in highly dynamic urban areas. The proposed methodology can be applied to other Latin American cities to support policy making. PMID:27606592

  16. Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of “hotspots” exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

  17. Spatial vulnerability of fine particulate matter relative to the prevalence of diabetes in the United States.

    PubMed

    Chien, Lung-Chang; Alamgir, Hasanat; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2015-03-01

    Recent research supports a link between diabetes and fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5μg in diameter; PM2.5) in both laboratory and epidemiology studies. However, research investigating the potential relationship of the spatial vulnerability of diabetes to concomitant PM2.5 levels is still sparse, and the level of diabetes geographic disparities attributed to PM2.5 levels has yet to be evaluated. We conducted a Bayesian structured additive regression modeling approach to determine whether long-term exposure to PM2.5 is spatially associated with diabetes prevalence after adjusting for the socioeconomic status of county residents. This study utilizes the following data sources from 2004 to 2010: the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the American Community Survey, and the Environmental Protection Agency. We also conducted spatial comparisons with low, median-low, median-high, and high levels of PM2.5 concentrations. When PM2.5 concentrations increased 1 μg/m(3), the increase in the relative risk percentage for diabetes ranged from -5.47% (95% credible interval = -6.14, -4.77) to 2.34% (95% CI = 2.01, 2.70), where 1323 of 3109 counties (42.55%) displayed diabetes vulnerability with significantly positive relative risk percentages. These vulnerable counties are more likely located in the Southeast, Central, and South Regions of the U.S. A similar spatial vulnerability pattern for concentrations of low PM2.5 levels was also present in these same three regions. A clear cluster of vulnerable counties at median-high PM2.5 level was found in Michigan. This study identifies the spatial vulnerability of diabetes prevalence associated with PM2.5, and thereby provides the evidence needed to prompt and establish enhanced surveillance that can monitor diabetes vulnerability in areas with low PM2.5 pollution. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  19. Accounting for Landscape Heterogeneity Improves Spatial Predictions of Tree Vulnerability to Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwantes, A. M.; Parolari, A.; Swenson, J. J.; Johnson, D. M.; Domec, J. C.; Jackson, R. B.; Pelak, N. F., III; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Globally, as climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability differs regionally and locally depending on landscape position. However, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heatwaves and droughts do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. To improve predictions of spatial tree vulnerability, we employed a non-linear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics across a landscape, accounting for spatial differences in aspect, topography, and soils. Our unique approach integrated plant hydraulics and landscape processes, incorporating effects from lateral redistribution of water using a topographic index and radiation and temperature differences attributable to aspect. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei. We compared our results to a detailed spatial dataset of drought-impacted areas (>25% canopy loss) derived from remote sensing during the severe 2011 drought. We then projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century using climate projections from 10 global climate models under two scenarios, and compared models with and without landscape heterogeneity. Within this watershed, 42% of J. ashei dominated systems were impacted by the 2011 drought. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked these spatial patterns of observed drought-impacted areas. Total accuracy increased from 59%, when accounting only for soil variability, to 73% when including lateral redistribution of water and radiation and temperature effects. Dynamic water stress was projected to increase through the 21st century, with only minimal buffering from the landscape. During the hotter and more severe droughts projected in the 21st century, up to 90% of the watershed crossed a dynamic water stress threshold associated with canopy loss in 2011. Favorable microsites may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are

  20. Exploring spatial patterns of vulnerability for diverse biodiversity descriptors in regional conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Vimal, Ruppert; Pluvinet, Pascal; Sacca, Céline; Mazagol, Pierre-Olivier; Etlicher, Bernard; Thompson, John D

    2012-03-01

    In this study, we developed a multi-criteria assessment of spatial variability of the vulnerability of three different biodiversity descriptors: sites of high conservation interest by virtue of the presence of rare or remarkable species, extensive areas of high ecological integrity, and landscape diversity in grid cells across an entire region. We assessed vulnerability in relation to (a) direct threats in and around sites to a distance of 2 km associated with intensive agriculture, building and road infrastructure and (b) indirect effects of human population density on a wider scale (50 km). The different combinations of biodiversity and threat indicators allowed us to set differential priorities for biodiversity conservation and assess their spatial variation. For example, with this method we identified sites and grid cells which combined high biodiversity with either high threat values or low threat values for the three different biodiversity indicators. In these two classes the priorities for conservation planning will be different, reduce threat values in the former and restrain any increase in the latter. We also identified low priority sites (low biodiversity with either high or low threats). This procedure thus allows for the integration of a spatial ranking of vulnerability into priority setting for regional conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

    PubMed Central

    Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability. PMID:28112167

  2. Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes.

    PubMed

    Ganju, Neil K; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

    2017-01-23

    Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

  3. Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

  4. Social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta, USA: spatial pattern of heat, NDVI, socioeconomics and household composition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sim, Sunhui

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of the article is evaluating spatial patterns of social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta in 2015. The social vulnerability to heat is an index of socioeconomic status, household composition, land surface temperature and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). Land surface temperature and NDVI were derived from the red, NIR and thermal infrared (TIR) of a Landsat OLI/TIRS images collected on September 14, 2015. The research focus is on the variation of heat vulnerability in Greater Atlanta. The study found that heat vulnerability is highly clustered spatially, resulting in "hot spots" and "cool spots". The results show significant health disparities. The hotspots of social vulnerability to heat occurred in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic status as measured by low education, low income and more poverty, greater proportion of elderly people and young children. The findings of this study are important for identifying clusters of heat vulnerability and the relationships with social factors. These significant results provide a basis for heat intervention services.

  5. Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

    2013-06-01

    In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

  6. Spatial Supermarket Redlining and Neighborhood Vulnerability: A Case Study of Hartford, Connecticut

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Mengyao

    2015-01-01

    The disinclination of chain supermarkets to locate or pull out existing stores from impoverished neighborhoods is termed as “supermarket redlining”. This paper attempts to map and understand the spatial effects of potential supermarket redlining on food vulnerability in urban disadvantaged neighborhoods of Hartford, Connecticut. Using a combination of statistical and spatial analysis functions, we first, built a Supermarket Redlining Index (SuRI) from five indicators such as sales volume, employee count, accepts food coupons from federally assisted programs, and size and population density of the service area to rank supermarkets in the order of their importance. Second, to understand the effect of redlining, a Supermarket Redlining Impact Model (SuRIM) was built with eleven indicators describing both the socioeconomic and food access vulnerabilities. The interaction of these vulnerabilities would identify the final outcome: neighborhoods where the impact of supermarket redlining would be critical. Results mapped critical areas in the inner-city of Hartford where if a nearby supermarket closes or relocates to a suburb with limited mitigation efforts to gill the grocery gap, a large number of minority, poor, and disadvantaged residents will experience difficulties to access healthy food leading to food insecurity or perhaps a food desert. We also suggest mitigation efforts to reduce the impact of large supermarket closures. PMID:27034615

  7. Spatial Supermarket Redlining and Neighborhood Vulnerability: A Case Study of Hartford, Connecticut.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mengyao; Debarchana, Ghosh

    2016-02-01

    The disinclination of chain supermarkets to locate or pull out existing stores from impoverished neighborhoods is termed as "supermarket redlining". This paper attempts to map and understand the spatial effects of potential supermarket redlining on food vulnerability in urban disadvantaged neighborhoods of Hartford, Connecticut. Using a combination of statistical and spatial analysis functions, we first, built a Supermarket Redlining Index (SuRI) from five indicators such as sales volume, employee count, accepts food coupons from federally assisted programs, and size and population density of the service area to rank supermarkets in the order of their importance. Second, to understand the effect of redlining, a Supermarket Redlining Impact Model (SuRIM) was built with eleven indicators describing both the socioeconomic and food access vulnerabilities. The interaction of these vulnerabilities would identify the final outcome: neighborhoods where the impact of supermarket redlining would be critical. Results mapped critical areas in the inner-city of Hartford where if a nearby supermarket closes or relocates to a suburb with limited mitigation efforts to gill the grocery gap, a large number of minority, poor, and disadvantaged residents will experience difficulties to access healthy food leading to food insecurity or perhaps a food desert. We also suggest mitigation efforts to reduce the impact of large supermarket closures.

  8. [Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

    PubMed

    Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

    2016-03-01

    Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

  9. Prefrontal vulnerabilities and whole brain connectivity in aging and depression.

    PubMed

    Lamar, Melissa; Charlton, Rebecca A; Ajilore, Olusola; Zhang, Aifeng; Yang, Shaolin; Barrick, Thomas R; Rhodes, Emma; Kumar, Anand

    2013-07-01

    Studies exploring the underpinnings of age-related neurodegeneration suggest fronto-limbic alterations that are increasingly vulnerable in the presence of disease including late life depression. Less work has assessed the impact of this specific vulnerability on widespread brain circuitry. Seventy-nine older adults (healthy controls=45; late life depression=34) completed translational tasks shown in non-human primates to rely on fronto-limbic networks involving dorsolateral (Self-Ordered Pointing Task) or orbitofrontal (Object Alternation Task) cortices. A sub-sample of participants also completed diffusion tensor imaging for white matter tract quantification (uncinate and cingulum bundle; n=58) and whole brain tract-based spatial statistics (n=62). Despite task associations to specific white matter tracts across both groups, only healthy controls demonstrated significant correlations between widespread tract integrity and cognition. Thus, increasing Object Alternation Task errors were associated with decreasing fractional anisotropy in the uncinate in late life depression; however, only in healthy controls was the uncinate incorporated into a larger network of white matter vulnerability associating fractional anisotropy with Object Alternation Task errors using whole brain tract-based spatial statistics. It appears that the whole brain impact of specific fronto-limbic vulnerabilities in aging may be eclipsed in the presence of disease-specific neuropathology like that seen in late life depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Spatial vulnerability of fine particulate matter relative to the geographic disparities of adult's diabetes prevalence in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chien, Lung-Chang; Alamgir, Hassanat; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2015-04-01

    Potentially larger regional effects of climate change have been revealed on the elevation of fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 µg in diameter; PM2.5) in the U.S. In addition, recent research supports a link between diabetes and PM2.5 in both laboratory and epidemiology studies. However, research investigating the potential relationship of the spatial vulnerability of diabetes to concomitant PM2.5 levels is still sparse, and the level of diabetes geographic disparities attributed to PM2.5 levels has yet to be evaluated. We conducted a Bayesian structured additive regression modeling approach to determine whether long-term exposure to PM2.5 is spatially associated with diabetes prevalence after adjusting for the socioeconomic status of county residents. This study utilizes the following data sources from 2004-2010: the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the American Community Survey, and the Environmental Protection Agency. We also conducted spatial comparisons with low, median-low, median-high, and high levels of PM2.5 concentrations. When PM2.5 concentrations increased 1 µg/m3, the increase in the relative risk percentage for diabetes ranged from -5.47% (95% credible interval = -6.14, -4.77) to 2.34% (95% CI = 2.01, 2.70), where 1,323 of 3,109 counties (42.55%) displayed diabetes vulnerability with significantly positive relative risk percentages. These vulnerable counties are more likely located in the Southeast, Central, and South Regions of the U.S. A similar spatial vulnerability pattern for concentrations of low PM2.5 levels was also present in these same three regions. A clear cluster of vulnerable counties at median-high PM2.5 level was found in Michigan. This study identifies the spatial vulnerability of diabetes prevalence associated with PM2.5, and thereby provides the evidence needed to prompt and establish enhanced surveillance that can monitor diabetes vulnerability in areas with low PM2.5 pollution.

  11. Evaluation of socio-spatial vulnerability of citydwellers and analysis of risk perception: industrial and seismic risks in Mulhouse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glatron, S.; Beck, E.

    2008-10-01

    Social vulnerability has been studied for years with sociological, psychological and economical approaches. Our proposition focuses on perception and cognitive representations of risks by city dwellers living in a medium size urban area, namely Mulhouse (France). Perception, being part of the social vulnerability and resilience of the society to disasters, influences the potential damage; for example it leads to adequate or inadequate behaviour in the case of an emergency. As geographers, we assume that the spatial relationship to danger or hazard can be an important factor of vulnerability and we feel that the spatial dimension is a challenging question either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information). We interviewed 491 people, inhabitants and workers, regularly distributed within the urban area to get to know their opinion on hazards and security measures better. We designed and mapped a vulnerability index on the basis of their answers. The results show that the social vulnerability depends on the type of hazard, and that the distance to the source of danger influences the vulnerability, especially for hazards with a precise location (industrial for example). Moreover, the effectiveness of the information campaigns is doubtful, as the people living close to hazardous industries (target of specific preventive information) are surprisingly more vulnerable and less aware of industrial risk.

  12. Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

    Treesearch

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

    2011-01-01

    The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

  13. An exploratory spatial analysis of social vulnerability and smoke plum dispersion in the U.S

    Treesearch

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Scott Goodrick; Bryn Elise Murphy; Neelam Poudyal

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the spatial association between social vulnerability and smoke plume dispersion at the census block group level for the 13 southern states in the USDA Forest Service’s Region 8. Using environmental justice as a conceptual basis, we use Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to identify clusters or “hot spots” for the incidence of both higher than average...

  14. Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

    2018-04-01

    Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from

  15. How urban system vulnerabilities to flooding could be assessed to improve resilience and adaptation in spatial planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasi, Riccardo; Viavattene, Christophe; La Loggia, Goffredo

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards damage assets and infrastructure inducing disruptions to urban functions and key daily services. These disruptions may be short or long with a variable spatial scale of impact. From an urban planning perspective, measuring these disruptions and their consequences at an urban scale is fundamental in order to develop more resilient cities. Whereas the assessment of physical vulnerabilities and direct damages is commonly addressed, new methodologies for assessing the systemic vulnerability at the urban scale are required to reveal these disruptions and their consequences. Physical and systemic vulnerability should be measured in order to reflect the multifaceted fragility of cities in the face of external stress, both in terms of the natural/built environment and socio-economic sphere. Additionally, a systemic approach allows the consideration of vulnerability across different spatial scales, as impacts may vary and be transmitted across local, regional or national levels. Urban systems are spatially distributed and the nature of this can have significant effects on flood impacts. The proposed approach identifies the vulnerabilities of flooding within urban contexts, including both in terms of single elementary units (buildings, infrastructures, people, etc.) and systemic functioning (urban functions and daily life networks). Direct losses are appraised initially using conventional methodologies (e.g. depth-damage functions). This aims to both understand the spatial distribution of physical vulnerability and associated losses and, secondly, to identify the most vulnerable building types and ways to improve the physical adaptation of our cities, proposing changes to building codes, design principles and other municipal regulation tools. The subsequent systemic approach recognises the city as a collection of sub-systems or functional units (such as neighbourhoods and suburbs) providing key daily services for inhabitants (e.g. healthcare facilities

  16. Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

  17. Water supply, demand, and quality indicators for assessing the spatial distribution of water resource vulnerability in the Columbia River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Strecker, Angela L.; Wise, Daniel; Lafrenz, Martin; Shandas, Vivek; ,; Yeakley, Alan; Pan, Yangdong; Johnson, Gunnar; Psaris, Mike

    2013-01-01

    We investigated water resource vulnerability in the US portion of the Columbia River basin (CRB) using multiple indicators representing water supply, water demand, and water quality. Based on the US county scale, spatial analysis was conducted using various biophysical and socio-economic indicators that control water vulnerability. Water supply vulnerability and water demand vulnerability exhibited a similar spatial clustering of hotspots in areas where agricultural lands and variability of precipitation were high but dam storage capacity was low. The hotspots of water quality vulnerability were clustered around the main stem of the Columbia River where major population and agricultural centres are located. This multiple equal weight indicator approach confirmed that different drivers were associated with different vulnerability maps in the sub-basins of the CRB. Water quality variables are more important than water supply and water demand variables in the Willamette River basin, whereas water supply and demand variables are more important than water quality variables in the Upper Snake and Upper Columbia River basins. This result suggests that current water resources management and practices drive much of the vulnerability within the study area. The analysis suggests the need for increased coordination of water management across multiple levels of water governance to reduce water resource vulnerability in the CRB and a potentially different weighting scheme that explicitly takes into account the input of various water stakeholders.

  18. Maxillofacial Injuries as Markers of Interpersonal Violence in Belo Horizonte-Brazil: Analysis of the Socio-Spatial Vulnerability of the Location of Victim’s Residences

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Carlos José de Paula; Moura, Ana Clara Mourão; Paiva, Paula Cristina Pelli; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Vargas, Andréa Maria Duarte; de Paula, Liliam Pacheco Pinto; Naves, Marcelo Drummond; Ferreira, Efigênia Ferreira e

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze the spatial pattern of cases of maxillofacial injuries caused by interpersonal violence, based on the location of the victim’s residence, and to investigate the existence of conditions of socio-spatial vulnerability in these areas. This is a cross-sectional study, using the data of victims attended in three emergency hospitals in Belo Horizonte-Brazil between January 2008 and December 2010. Based on the process of spatial signature, the socio-spatial condition of the victims was identified according to data from census tracts. The spatial distribution trends of the addresses of victims were analyzed using Kernel maps and Ripley’s K function. Multicriteria analysis was used to analyze the territorial insertion of victims, using a combination of variables to obtain the degree of socio-spatial vulnerability. The residences of the victims were distributed in an aggregated manner in urban areas, with a confidence level of 99%. The highest densities were found in areas of unfavorable socioeconomic conditions and, to a lesser extent, areas with worse residential and neighborhood infrastructure. Spatial clusters of households formed in slums with a significant level of socio-spatial vulnerability. Explanations of the living conditions in segregated urban areas and analysis of the concentration of more vulnerable populations should be a priority in the development of public health and safety policies. PMID:26274320

  19. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.

    2012-04-01

    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  20. Spatial screening methods for evaluating environmental contaminant hazards and exposure vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Human and biotic communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and severe storms due to climate change. These events enhance the dispersion and concentration of natural and anthropogenic chemicals and pathogenic microorganisms, which could adversely impact the health and resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems in coming years. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed spatial screening methods to identify and map contaminant sources and potential exposure pathways for human and ecological receptors. These methods have been applied within the northeastern U.S. to document contaminants of emerging concern, highlight vulnerable communities, and prioritize locations for future sampling campaigns. Integration of this information provides a means to better assess the baseline status of a complex system and the significance of changes in contaminant hazards due to storm-induced (episodic) and sea-level rise (incremental) disturbances. This presentation will provide an overview of a decision support tool developed by the USGS to document contaminants in the environment relative to key receptor populations and historic storm vulnerabilities. The support tool is designed to accommodate a broad array of geologic, land-use, and climatic variables and utilizes public, nationally available data sources to define contaminant sources and storm vulnerabilities. By employing a flexible and adaptable strategy built upon publicly available data, the method can readily be applied to other site selection or landscape evaluation efforts. Examples will be presented including the Sediment-bound Contaminant Resiliency and Response pilot study (see http://toxics.usgs.gov/scorr/), and investigations of endocrine disruption in the Chesapeake Bay. Key limitations and future applications will be discussed in addition to ongoing method developments to accommodate non-coastal disaster scenarios and more refined contaminant definitions.

  1. A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

  2. Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

    PubMed

    Ezell, Barry Charles

    2007-06-01

    Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

  3. Spatially resolved quantification of agrochemicals on plant surfaces using energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis.

    PubMed

    Hunsche, Mauricio; Noga, Georg

    2009-12-01

    In the present study the principle of energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDX), i.e. the detection of elements based on their characteristic X-rays, was used to localise and quantify organic and inorganic pesticides on enzymatically isolated fruit cuticles. Pesticides could be discriminated from the plant surface because of their distinctive elemental composition. Findings confirm the close relation between net intensity (NI) and area covered by the active ingredient (AI area). Using wide and narrow concentration ranges of glyphosate and glufosinate, respectively, results showed that quantification of AI requires the selection of appropriate regression equations while considering NI, peak-to-background (P/B) ratio, and AI area. The use of selected internal standards (ISs) such as Ca(NO(3))(2) improved the accuracy of the quantification slightly but led to the formation of particular, non-typical microstructured deposits. The suitability of SEM-EDX as a general technique to quantify pesticides was evaluated additionally on 14 agrochemicals applied at diluted or regular concentration. Among the pesticides tested, spatial localisation and quantification of AI amount could be done for inorganic copper and sulfur as well for the organic agrochemicals glyphosate, glufosinate, bromoxynil and mancozeb. (c) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry.

  4. Urban sprawl and fragmentation in Latin America: a dynamic quantification and characterization of spatial patterns.

    PubMed

    Inostroza, Luis; Baur, Rolf; Csaplovics, Elmar

    2013-01-30

    South America is one of the most urbanized continents in the world, where almost 84% of the total population lives in cities, more urbanized than North America (82%) and Europe (73%). Spatial dynamics, their structure, main features, land consumption rates, spatial arrangement, fragmentation degrees and comparability, remain mostly unknown for most Latin American cities. Using satellite imagery the main parameters of sprawl are quantified for 10 Latin American cities over a period of 20 years by monitoring growth patterns and identifying spatial metrics to characterize urban development and sprawling features measured with GIS tools. This quantification contributes to a better understanding of urban form in Latin America. A pervasive spatial expansion has been observed, where most of the studied cities are expanding at fast rates with falling densities trend. Although important differences in the rates of land consumption and densities exist, there is an underlying fragmentation trend towards increasing sprawl. These trends of spatial discontinuity may eventually be intensified by further economic development. Urban Sprawl/Latin America/GIS metrics/spatial development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The geography of post-disaster mental health: spatial patterning of psychological vulnerability and resilience factors in New York City after Hurricane Sandy.

    PubMed

    Gruebner, Oliver; Lowe, Sarah R; Sampson, Laura; Galea, Sandro

    2015-06-10

    Only very few studies have investigated the geographic distribution of psychological resilience and associated mental health outcomes after natural or man made disasters. Such information is crucial for location-based interventions that aim to promote recovery in the aftermath of disasters. The purpose of this study therefore was to investigate geographic variability of (1) posttraumatic stress (PTS) and depression in a Hurricane Sandy affected population in NYC and (2) psychological vulnerability and resilience factors among affected areas in NYC boroughs. Cross-sectional telephone survey data were collected 13 to 16 months post-disaster from household residents (N = 418 adults) in NYC communities that were most heavily affected by the hurricane. The Posttraumatic Stress Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) was applied for measuring posttraumatic stress and the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used for measuring depression. We applied spatial autocorrelation and spatial regimes regression analyses, to test for spatial clusters of mental health outcomes and to explore whether associations between vulnerability and resilience factors and mental health differed among New York City's five boroughs. Mental health problems clustered predominantly in neighborhoods that are geographically more exposed towards the ocean indicating a spatial variation of risk within and across the boroughs. We further found significant variation in associations between vulnerability and resilience factors and mental health. Race/ethnicity (being Asian or non-Hispanic black) and disaster-related stressors were vulnerability factors for mental health symptoms in Queens, and being employed and married were resilience factors for these symptoms in Manhattan and Staten Island. In addition, parental status was a vulnerability factor in Brooklyn and a resilience factor in the Bronx. We conclude that explanatory characteristics may manifest as psychological vulnerability and resilience

  6. Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

    2018-05-31

    The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as

  7. Research Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of eco-environmental vulnerability in the Xianshui River basin based on GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Kun; Bai, Lin; Li, Xiao Ju; Wang, Xiao

    2018-05-01

    The Xianshui River basin is an important ecological barrier and water conservation area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. To master the spatial and temporal differentiation of ecological environment is beneficial to the realization of the protection of regional ecological environment and the development of restoration measures. In this paper, the evaluation index system of ecological environment vulnerability was constructed from topography, climate, soil, land use and social economy. In this study, GIS and information entropy theory are combined to complete the analysis of spatial and temporal variation of vulnerability of ecological environment vulnerability in 2000-2015 years, and the main results are as follows: The ecological vulnerability of the watershed is characterized by the obvious vertical distribution, which is characterized by the gradual increase of the vulnerability of the south to the north. The evaluation results were classified as potential, micro, mild, moderate and severe, with the proportion of each grade being Micro > mild > potential > moderate > severity. The proportion of light and below accounts for more than 80% of the whole area, and the whole basin is at a medium vulnerable level. The change of overall trend indicates that the overall ecological environment of the basin has improved obviously in 15 years. The driving force factor analysis shows that the national environmental protection and restoration project is playing a significant role and plays a major driving role in the obvious improvement of the ecological environment in the basin area. However, there are still a few parts of the region that are deteriorating. This is mainly due to the special natural environment and over exploitation of hydropower resources.

  8. Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers' Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity.

    PubMed

    Gardezi, Maaz; Arbuckle, J Gordon

    2017-11-29

    Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  10. Easier surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities through a Web-based spatial OLAP application.

    PubMed

    Bernier, Eveline; Gosselin, Pierre; Badard, Thierry; Bédard, Yvan

    2009-04-03

    Climate change has a significant impact on population health. Population vulnerabilities depend on several determinants of different types, including biological, psychological, environmental, social and economic ones. Surveillance of climate-related health vulnerabilities must take into account these different factors, their interdependence, as well as their inherent spatial and temporal aspects on several scales, for informed analyses. Currently used technology includes commercial off-the-shelf Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Database Management Systems with spatial extensions. It has been widely recognized that such OLTP (On-Line Transaction Processing) systems were not designed to support complex, multi-temporal and multi-scale analysis as required above. On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) is central to the field known as BI (Business Intelligence), a key field for such decision-support systems. In the last few years, we have seen a few projects that combine OLAP and GIS to improve spatio-temporal analysis and geographic knowledge discovery. This has given rise to SOLAP (Spatial OLAP) and a new research area. This paper presents how SOLAP and climate-related health vulnerability data were investigated and combined to facilitate surveillance. Based on recent spatial decision-support technologies, this paper presents a spatio-temporal web-based application that goes beyond GIS applications with regard to speed, ease of use, and interactive analysis capabilities. It supports the multi-scale exploration and analysis of integrated socio-economic, health and environmental geospatial data over several periods. This project was meant to validate the potential of recent technologies to contribute to a better understanding of the interactions between public health and climate change, and to facilitate future decision-making by public health agencies and municipalities in Canada and elsewhere. The project also aimed at integrating an initial collection of geo

  11. Quantification and spatial characterization of moisture and NaCl content of Iberian dry-cured ham slices using NIR hyperspectral imaging

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hyperspectral imaging technology is increasingly regarded as a powerful tool for the classification and spatial quantification of a wide range of agrofood product properties. Taking into account the difficulties involved in validating hyperspectral calibrations, the models constructed here proved mo...

  12. The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Phung, Dung; Rutherford, Shannon; Dwirahmadi, Febi; Chu, Cordia; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Thuy; Duong, Nam Chi

    2016-06-01

    Flooding causes significant public health issues. The Mekong Delta has been considered the region to be the most vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam. This study assessed the spatial vulnerability of the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam. This study applied a vulnerability assessment framework which was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators for each dimension were derived from the relevant literature, consultations with experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used to determine the weight of indicators. Vulnerability indexes (VIs) were then computed for each province. A total of 29 indicators (sensitivity index, 14; adaptive capacity index, 13; and exposure index, 2) were employed to evaluate the vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding at a provincial level. The results of AHP revealed that the highest VIs were found in the Dong Thap and An Giang provinces (VI, 1.948 and 1.574, respectively). VIs were distributed with higher indexes in upstream provinces close to a river than in coastal provinces. PCA generated three components from the 29 indicators, and the VIs computed from the PCA method are in substantial agreement with the AHP method (ICC = 0.71, p < 0.05). The vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding varies from province to province in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. Individual plans for health preparedness and adaption to flooding should be developed for each province in the Mekong Delta region.

  13. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

    PubMed

    Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

    2018-05-01

    A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated

  14. Multi-criteria decision analysis and spatial statistic: an approach to determining human vulnerability to vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi.

    PubMed

    Montenegro, Diego; Cunha, Ana Paula da; Ladeia-Andrade, Simone; Vera, Mauricio; Pedroso, Marcel; Junqueira, Angela

    2017-10-01

    Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected human disease. It is endemic to the Americas and is estimated to have an economic impact, including lost productivity and disability, of 7 billion dollars per year on average. To assess vulnerability to vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi in domiciliary environments within an area undergoing domiciliary vector interruption of T. cruzi in Colombia. Multi-criteria decision analysis [preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and geometrical analysis for interactive assistance (GAIA) methods] and spatial statistics were performed on data from a socio-environmental questionnaire and an entomological survey. In the construction of multi-criteria descriptors, decision-making processes and indicators of five determinants of the CD vector pathway were summarily defined, including: (1) house indicator (HI); (2) triatominae indicator (TI); (3) host/reservoir indicator (Ho/RoI); (4) ecotope indicator (EI); and (5) socio-cultural indicator (S-CI). Determination of vulnerability to CD is mostly influenced by TI, with 44.96% of the total weight in the model, while the lowest contribution was from S-CI, with 7.15%. The five indicators comprise 17 indices, and include 78 of the original 104 priority criteria and variables. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods proved very efficient for prioritisation and quantitative categorisation of socio-environmental determinants and for better determining which criteria should be considered for interrupting the man-T. cruzi-vector relationship in endemic areas of the Americas. Through the analysis of spatial autocorrelation it is clear that there is a spatial dependence in establishing categories of vulnerability, therefore, the effect of neighbors' setting (border areas) on local values should be incorporated into disease management for establishing programs of surveillance and control of CD via vector. The study model proposed here is flexible and

  15. Multi-criteria decision analysis and spatial statistic: an approach to determining human vulnerability to vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi

    PubMed Central

    Montenegro, Diego; da Cunha, Ana Paula; Ladeia-Andrade, Simone; Vera, Mauricio; Pedroso, Marcel; Junqueira, Angela

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected human disease. It is endemic to the Americas and is estimated to have an economic impact, including lost productivity and disability, of 7 billion dollars per year on average. OBJECTIVES To assess vulnerability to vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi in domiciliary environments within an area undergoing domiciliary vector interruption of T. cruzi in Colombia. METHODS Multi-criteria decision analysis [preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and geometrical analysis for interactive assistance (GAIA) methods] and spatial statistics were performed on data from a socio-environmental questionnaire and an entomological survey. In the construction of multi-criteria descriptors, decision-making processes and indicators of five determinants of the CD vector pathway were summarily defined, including: (1) house indicator (HI); (2) triatominae indicator (TI); (3) host/reservoir indicator (Ho/RoI); (4) ecotope indicator (EI); and (5) socio-cultural indicator (S-CI). FINDINGS Determination of vulnerability to CD is mostly influenced by TI, with 44.96% of the total weight in the model, while the lowest contribution was from S-CI, with 7.15%. The five indicators comprise 17 indices, and include 78 of the original 104 priority criteria and variables. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods proved very efficient for prioritisation and quantitative categorisation of socio-environmental determinants and for better determining which criteria should be considered for interrupting the man-T. cruzi-vector relationship in endemic areas of the Americas. Through the analysis of spatial autocorrelation it is clear that there is a spatial dependence in establishing categories of vulnerability, therefore, the effect of neighbors’ setting (border areas) on local values should be incorporated into disease management for establishing programs of surveillance and control of CD via vector

  16. Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-01-13

    Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.

  17. Urban Vulnerability Assessment to Seismic Hazard through Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis. Case Study: the Bucharest Municipality/Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armas, Iuliana; Dumitrascu, Silvia; Bostenaru, Maria

    2010-05-01

    In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, an alarming challenge in the third millennium is the rapid growth of urban population in vulnerable areas. Cities are, by definition, very fragile socio-ecological systems with a high level of vulnerability when it comes to environmental changes and that are responsible for important transformations of the space, determining dysfunctions shown in the state of the natural variables (Parker and Mitchell, 1995, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database). A contributing factor is the demographic dynamic that affects urban areas. The aim of this study is to estimate the overall vulnerability of the urban area of Bucharest in the context of the seismic hazard, by using environmental, socio-economic, and physical measurable variables in the framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. For this approach the capital city of Romania was chosen based on its high vulnerability due to the explosive urban development and the advanced state of degradation of the buildings (most of the building stock being built between 1940 and 1977). Combining these attributes with the seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea source, Bucharest was ranked as the 10th capital city worldwide in the terms of seismic risk. Over 40 years of experience in the natural risk field shows that the only directly accessible way to reduce the natural risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the space (Adger et al., 2001, Turner et al., 2003; UN/ISDR, 2004, Dayton-Johnson, 2004, Kasperson et al., 2005; Birkmann, 2006 etc.). In effect, reducing the vulnerability of urban spaces would imply lower costs produced by natural disasters. By applying the SMCA method, the result reveals a circular pattern, signaling as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a river terrace and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic

  18. Quantification of Road Network Vulnerability and Traffic Impacts to Regional Landslide Hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dixon, Neil; Dijkstra, Tom

    2015-04-01

    Slope instability represents a prevalent hazard to transport networks. In the UK regional road networks are frequently disrupted by multiple slope failures triggered during intense precipitation events; primarily due to a degree of regional homogeneity of slope materials, geomorphology and weather conditions. It is of interest to examine how different locations and combinations of slope failure impact road networks, particularly in the context of projected climate change and a 40% increase in UK road demand by 2040. In this study an extensive number (>50 000) of multiple failure event scenarios are simulated within a dynamic micro simulation to assess traffic impacts during peak flow (7 - 10 AM). Possible failure locations are selected within the county of Gloucestershire (3150 km2) using historic failure sites and British Geological Survey GeoSure data. Initial investigations employ a multiple linear regression analyses to consider the severity of traffic impacts, as measured by time, in respect of spatial and topographical network characteristics including connectivity, density and capacity in proximity to failure sites; the network distance between disruptions in multiple failure scenarios is used to consider the effects of spatial clustering. The UK Department of Transport road travel demand and UKCP09 weather projection data to 2080 provide a suitable basis for traffic simulations and probabilistic slope stability assessments. Future work will thus focus on the development of a catastrophe risk model to simulate traffic impacts under various narratives of future travel demand and slope instability under climatic change. The results of this investigation shall contribute to the understanding of road network vulnerabilities and traffic impacts from climate driven slope hazards.

  19. Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-01-01

    Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management. PMID:29342852

  20. Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steenberg, James W. N.; Millward, Andrew A.; Nowak, David J.; Robinson, Pamela J.; Ellis, Alexis

    2017-03-01

    The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.

  1. Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Steenberg, James W N; Millward, Andrew A; Nowak, David J; Robinson, Pamela J; Ellis, Alexis

    2017-03-01

    The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.

  2. Spatial vulnerability assessments by regression kriging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pásztor, László; Laborczi, Annamária; Takács, Katalin; Szatmári, Gábor

    2016-04-01

    Two fairly different complex environmental phenomena, causing natural hazard were mapped based on a combined spatial inference approach. The behaviour is related to various environmental factors and the applied approach enables the inclusion of several, spatially exhaustive auxiliary variables that are available for mapping. Inland excess water (IEW) is an interrelated natural and human induced phenomenon causes several problems in the flat-land regions of Hungary, which cover nearly half of the country. The term 'inland excess water' refers to the occurrence of inundations outside the flood levee that originate from sources differing from flood overflow, it is surplus surface water forming due to the lack of runoff, insufficient absorption capability of soil or the upwelling of groundwater. There is a multiplicity of definitions, which indicate the complexity of processes that govern this phenomenon. Most of the definitions have a common part, namely, that inland excess water is temporary water inundation that occurs in flat-lands due to both precipitation and groundwater emerging on the surface as substantial sources. Radon gas is produced in the radioactive decay chain of uranium, which is an element that is naturally present in soils. Radon is transported mainly by diffusion and convection mechanisms through the soil depending mainly on soil physical and meteorological parameters and can enter and accumulate in the buildings. Health risk originating from indoor radon concentration attributed to natural factors is characterized by geogenic radon potential (GRP). In addition to geology and meteorology, physical soil properties play significant role in the determination of GRP. Identification of areas with high risk requires spatial modelling, that is mapping of specific natural hazards. In both cases external environmental factors determine the behaviour of the target process (occurrence/frequncy of IEW and grade of GRP respectively). Spatial auxiliary

  3. On the complex quantification of risk: systems-based perspective on terrorism.

    PubMed

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2011-08-01

    This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems-based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality-impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: "What is the likelihood?" and "What are the consequences?" can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

    2016-10-01

    The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

  5. The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3

  6. Spatial quantification of groundwater abstraction in the irrigated Indus basin.

    PubMed

    Cheema, M J M; Immerzeel, W W; Bastiaanssen, W G M

    2014-01-01

    Groundwater abstraction and depletion were assessed at a 1-km resolution in the irrigated areas of the Indus Basin using remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation; a process-based hydrological model and spatial information on canal water supplies. A calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to derive total annual irrigation applied in the irrigated areas of the basin during the year 2007. The SWAT model was parameterized by station corrected precipitation data (R) from the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission, land use, soil type, and outlet locations. The model was calibrated using a new approach based on spatially distributed ET fields derived from different satellite sensors. The calibration results were satisfactory and strong improvements were obtained in the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion (0.52 to 0.93), bias (-17.3% to -0.4%), and the Pearson correlation coefficient (0.78 to 0.93). Satellite information on R and ET was then combined with model results of surface runoff, drainage, and percolation to derive groundwater abstraction and depletion at a nominal resolution of 1 km. It was estimated that in 2007, 68 km³ (262 mm) of groundwater was abstracted in the Indus Basin while 31 km³ (121 mm) was depleted. The mean error was 41 mm/year and 62 mm/year at 50% and 70% probability of exceedance, respectively. Pakistani and Indian Punjab and Haryana were the most vulnerable areas to groundwater depletion and strong measures are required to maintain aquifer sustainability. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  7. Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia’s Threatened Species

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jasmine R.; Maggini, Ramona; Taylor, Martin F. J.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species’ vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia’s threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species. PMID:26017785

  8. Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cam, Hasan

    2015-05-01

    Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

  9. Big Data Geo-Analytical Tool Development for Spatial Analysis Uncertainty Visualization and Quantification Needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rose, K.; Bauer, J. R.; Baker, D. V.

    2015-12-01

    As big data computing capabilities are increasingly paired with spatial analytical tools and approaches, there is a need to ensure uncertainty associated with the datasets used in these analyses is adequately incorporated and portrayed in results. Often the products of spatial analyses, big data and otherwise, are developed using discontinuous, sparse, and often point-driven data to represent continuous phenomena. Results from these analyses are generally presented without clear explanations of the uncertainty associated with the interpolated values. The Variable Grid Method (VGM) offers users with a flexible approach designed for application to a variety of analyses where users there is a need to study, evaluate, and analyze spatial trends and patterns while maintaining connection to and communicating the uncertainty in the underlying spatial datasets. The VGM outputs a simultaneous visualization representative of the spatial data analyses and quantification of underlying uncertainties, which can be calculated using data related to sample density, sample variance, interpolation error, uncertainty calculated from multiple simulations. In this presentation we will show how we are utilizing Hadoop to store and perform spatial analysis through the development of custom Spark and MapReduce applications that incorporate ESRI Hadoop libraries. The team will present custom 'Big Data' geospatial applications that run on the Hadoop cluster and integrate with ESRI ArcMap with the team's probabilistic VGM approach. The VGM-Hadoop tool has been specially built as a multi-step MapReduce application running on the Hadoop cluster for the purpose of data reduction. This reduction is accomplished by generating multi-resolution, non-overlapping, attributed topology that is then further processed using ESRI's geostatistical analyst to convey a probabilistic model of a chosen study region. Finally, we will share our approach for implementation of data reduction and topology generation

  10. Comparison of environmental and socio-economic domains of vulnerability to flood hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leidel, M.; Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

    2009-04-01

    Socio-economic and environmental based vulnerability models have been developed within the research context of the FP6 project BRAHMATWINN. The conceptualisation of vulnerability has been defined in the project and is characterised as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, where sensitivity is used to refer to systems that are susceptible to the impacts of environmental stress. Adaptive capacity is used to refer to systems or resources available to communities that could help them adapt or cope with the adverse consequences of environmental stresses in the recovery phase. In a wider context the approach reflects the wider objective and conceptualizations of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) framework, where vulnerability is characterized as a component of overall risk. A methodology has been developed which delineates spatial units of vulnerability (VULNUS). These units share a specific common characteristic and allow the independent spatial modelling of a complex phenomena independent from administrative units and raster based approaches. An increasing detail of spatial data and complex decision problems require flexible means for scaled spatial representations, for mapping the dynamics and constant changes, and delivering the crucial information. Automated techniques of object-based image analysis (OBIA, Lang & Blaschke, 2006), capable of integrating a virtually unlimited set of spatial data sets, try to match the information extraction with our world view. To account for that, a flexible concept of manageable units is required. The term geon was proposed by Lang (2008) to describe generic spatial objects that are homogenous in terms of a varying spatial phenomena under the influence of, and partly controlled by, policy actions. The geon concept acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. It is flexible in terms of a certain perception of a problem

  11. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  12. Vulnerability to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services of boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmberg, Maria; Rankinen, Katri; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu; Nadir Arslan, Ali; Liski, Jari; Markkanen, Tiina; Mäkelä, Annikki; Peltoniemi, Mikko

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forests provide an array of ecosystem services. They regulate climate, and carbon, water and nutrient fluxes, and provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming is projected for the boreal zone, and has already been observed in Finland, which sets these services at risk. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 2.9.2013 - 1.9.2017) is a project funded by EU Life programme about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. The coordinating beneficiary of the project is the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Associated beneficiaries are the Natural Resources Institute Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Helsinki. In the MONIMET project, we use state-of-the-art models and new monitoring methods to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on the provision of ecosystem services of boreal forests. This poster presents results on carbon storage in soil and assessment of drought indices, as a preparation for assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services. The risk of decreasing provision of ecosystem services depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystem as well as its exposure to climate stress. The vulnerability of society, in turn, depends on the risk of decreasing provision of a certain service in combination with society's demand for that service. In the next phase, we will look for solutions to challenges relating to the quantification of the demand for ecosystem services and differences in spatial extent and resolution of the information on future supply and demand.

  13. An Analysis of HIV and AIDS Spatial Awareness and Vulnerability Level with Specific Reference to Staff at One Polytechnic in Zimbabwe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gatsi, Caroline; Chikuvadze, Pinias; Mugijima, Samuel

    2016-01-01

    With the gravity of the HIV and AIDS situation in most African nations and its implications for the education sector, a study was undertaken to analyze the spatial awareness and vulnerability level to pandemic in tertiary institutions with specific reference to academic and support staff at one polytechnic in Zimbabwe. A sample comprised of…

  14. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  15. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

    PubMed

    Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  16. Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State.

    PubMed

    Nayak, S G; Shrestha, S; Kinney, P L; Ross, Z; Sheridan, S C; Pantea, C I; Hsu, W H; Muscatiello, N; Hwang, S A

    2017-12-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS. Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas. Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories. Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI. The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could

  17. Flood Risk Vulnerability Assessment: What are the Main Factors? Hierarchization of The Main Factors at a Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jouannic, G.; Kolli, Z.; Legendre, T.; Marchetti, M.; Gastaud, P.; Gargani, J.; Lermet, R.; Augeard, C.; Felts, D.; Arki, F.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have shown that the national flood risk exposure is high in France, with one fourth of the total population and a third of jobs located in risk areas. In this context, a global vulnerability assessment methodology is currently being developed in France to bring adequate tools for local territories to manage flood risk. This study addresses the question of the quantification, the qualification and the choice of these vulnerability indicators for a given territory. This work aims to propose a classification of nearly 40 of these indicators in terms of their relative impacts on the risk level estimated on two territories: Chalon-sur-Saône (Saône river) Garonne estuary (Garonne and Dordogne rivers, and Atlantic ocean) Through these cases study, 3 different spatial scales have been compared: the Prés-Saint-Jean district inside Chalon (0.6 km²), the city of Ambès (28.8 km²) and Chalon with its suburbs (72.2 km²). A principal component analysis (PCA) was applied and indicated a threshold in terms of urban impacts between the different flood scenarios. On Chalon, the PCA discriminates 2 groups of flood and highlighted a threshold between T20 and T50. A partial least-square regression (PLS) was computed to make predictions on vulnerability indicators values modelled on new flood scenarios. Their results were is useful to identify the most relevant vulnerability indicators as a function of their flood exposure. These statistical analysis aims to highlight the relationship between a variable of exposure level (hydrologic impact: water levels and flow velocity) with spatialized vulnerability indicators in a 100 m grid (e.g., population, job, etc.). Finally, to get a hierarchy of variables depending on their impact on the risk level, an ANOVA was computed. The selection of variables was performed with a stepwise selection to assess contributions of each dependant variable on the F-statistic as they are added to or removed from the model.

  18. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  19. Vulnerability inducing technologies: An initial appreciation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Reinhardt, G.C.

    The arms control community continues to act as though vulnerability were directly proportional to numbers of nuclear weapons, however rapidly they would voice their rejection of such a proposition if it were placed before them in an intellectual forum. Such neglect in matching action to knowledge is a well-known human phenomenon, but in this case it is particularly troublesome. START manages to reduce the numbers of weapons to just the right extent to encourage damage limiting. The present number of nuclear weapons on either side probably provides a robust deterrent; six thousand probably does not. To make matters worse, wemore » live in a period of burgeoning technical expansion, so that even with the best intent on both sides, new technology threatens to cause new vulnerabilities in strategic systems. To pin a shorthand label on the problem, we will refer to vulnerability inducing technology as ''VIT.'' In order to appreciate VIT, we will make a rough quantification of its consequences. This will at least provide some incentive for further study because the consequences are grave indeed. 2 tabs.« less

  20. Urban growth patterns in major Southeast Asian cities: Toward exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandapaka, Pradeep; Kamarajugedda, Shankar A.; Lo, Edmond Y. M.

    2017-04-01

    Southeast Asia (SEA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, with urban population percentage increasing from 32% in 1990 to 48% in 2015. It is projected that by the year 2040, urban regions in SEA account for 60% of its total population. The region is home to 600 million people, with many densely populated cities, including megacities such as Jakarta, Bangkok, and Manila. The region has more than 20,000 islands, and many cities lie on coastal low-lands and floodplains. These geographical characteristics together with the increasing population, infrastructure growth, and changing climate makes the region highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This study assessed urban growth dynamics in major (defined as population exceeding 1 million) SEA cities using remotely sensed night-time lights (NTL) data. A recently proposed brightness gradient approach was applied on 21 years (1992-2012) of NTL annual composites to derive core-urban (CU) and peri-urban (PU) regions within each city. The study also assessed the sensitivity of above extracted urban categories to different NTL thresholds. The temporal trends in CU and PU regions were quantified, and compared with trends in socio-economic indicators. The spatial expansion of CU and PU regions were found to depend on geographical constraints and socio-economic factors. Quantification of urban growth spatial-temporal patterns, as conducted here contributes towards the understanding of exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructures to natural hazards, as well as the evolving trends for assessment under projected urbanization conditions. This will underpin better risk assessment efforts for present and future planning.

  1. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  2. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  3. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  4. Methods for the quantification of coarse woody debris and an examination of its spatial patterning: A study from the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, MT

    Treesearch

    Paul B. Alaback; Duncan C. Lutes

    1997-01-01

    Methods for the quantification of coarse woody debris volume and the description of spatial patterning were studied in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana. The line transect method was found to be an accurate, unbiased estimator of down debris volume (> 10cm diameter) on 1/4 hectare fixed-area plots, when perpendicular lines were used. The Fischer...

  5. Temporal trends in physical violence, gender differences and spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences.

    PubMed

    Cavalcante, Gigliana Maria Sobral; de Macedo Bernardino, Ítalo; da Nóbrega, Lorena Marques; Ferreira, Raquel Conceição; Ferreira E Ferreira, Efigênia; d'Avila, Sérgio

    2018-06-01

    The aim of study was to describe trends in physical violence among Brazilian victims and investigate spatial vulnerability of the location of victim's residences. This study performed an ecological-level longitudinal analysis, examining violence rates over 4 years. Cases of 4795 victims of physical aggression attended at a Center of Legal Medicine were investigated. Trend analysis was used to evaluate the data, with the creation of polynomial regression models (p < 0.05). Violence rates showed significant temporal variations according to sociodemographic characteristics of victims (p < 0.05) and the circumstances of aggressions (p < 0.05). Moreover, there was a significant increase in violence rate in the North (R 2  = 16.1%; p = 0.019) and South (R 2  = 18.4%; p = 0.010), whereas the rural zone (R 2  = 10.1%; p = 0.028) presented a decrease. The findings highlight the need for protection policies that address spatial-temporal aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Economic vulnerability of timber resources to forest fires

    Treesearch

    Francisco Rodriguez y Silva; Juan Ramon Molina; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; Miguel Angel Herrera Machuca

    2012-01-01

    The temporal-spatial planning of activities for a territorial fire management program requires knowing the value of forest ecosystems. In this paper we extend to and apply the economic valuation principle to the concept of economic vulnerability and present a methodology for the economic valuation of the forest production ecosystems. The forest vulnerability is...

  7. Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

    2018-05-27

    Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Spatial Vulnerability: Bacterial Arrangements, Microcolonies, and Biofilms as Responses to Low Rather than High Phage Densities

    PubMed Central

    Abedon, Stephen T.

    2012-01-01

    The ability of bacteria to survive and propagate can be dramatically reduced upon exposure to lytic bacteriophages. Study of this impact, from a bacterium’s perspective, tends to focus on phage-bacterial interactions that are governed by mass action, such as can be observed within continuous flow or similarly planktonic ecosystems. Alternatively, bacterial molecular properties can be examined, such as specific phage‑resistance adaptations. In this study I address instead how limitations on bacterial movement, resulting in the formation of cellular arrangements, microcolonies, or biofilms, could increase the vulnerability of bacteria to phages. Principally: (1) Physically associated clonal groupings of bacteria can represent larger targets for phage adsorption than individual bacteria; and (2), due to a combination of proximity and similar phage susceptibility, individual bacteria should be especially vulnerable to phages infecting within the same clonal, bacterial grouping. Consistent with particle transport theory—the physics of movement within fluids—these considerations are suggestive that formation into arrangements, microcolonies, or biofilms could be either less profitable to bacteria when phage predation pressure is high or require more effective phage-resistance mechanisms than seen among bacteria not living within clonal clusters. I consider these ideas of bacterial ‘spatial vulnerability’ in part within a phage therapy context. PMID:22754643

  9. Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poudyal, Neelam C.; Johnson-Gaither, Cassandra; Goodrick, Scott; Bowker, J. M.; Gan, Jianbang

    2012-03-01

    Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify "hot spots" or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.

  10. Social Vulnerability and Ebola Virus Disease in Rural Liberia.

    PubMed

    Stanturf, John A; Goodrick, Scott L; Warren, Melvin L; Charnley, Susan; Stegall, Christie M

    2015-01-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that has stricken thousands of people in the three West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea highlights the lack of adaptive capacity in post-conflict countries. The scarcity of health services in particular renders these populations vulnerable to multiple interacting stressors including food insecurity, climate change, and the cascading effects of disease epidemics such as EVD. However, the spatial distribution of vulnerable rural populations and the individual stressors contributing to their vulnerability are unknown. We developed a Social Vulnerability Classification using census indicators and mapped it at the district scale for Liberia. According to the Classification, we estimate that districts having the highest social vulnerability lie in the north and west of Liberia in Lofa, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi Counties. Three of these counties together with the capital Monrovia and surrounding Montserrado and Margibi counties experienced the highest levels of EVD infections in Liberia. Vulnerability has multiple dimensions and a classification developed from multiple variables provides a more holistic view of vulnerability than single indicators such as food insecurity or scarcity of health care facilities. Few rural Liberians are food secure and many cannot reach a medical clinic in <80 minutes. Our results illustrate how census and household survey data, when displayed spatially at a sub-county level, may help highlight the location of the most vulnerable households and populations. Our results can be used to identify vulnerability hotspots where development strategies and allocation of resources to address the underlying causes of vulnerability in Liberia may be warranted. We demonstrate how social vulnerability index approaches can be applied in the context of disease outbreaks, and our methods are relevant elsewhere.

  11. Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters.

    PubMed

    Asef, M R

    2008-09-01

    Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.

  12. Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making.

    PubMed

    Thiault, Lauric; Marshall, Paul; Gelcich, Stefan; Collin, Antoine; Chlous, Frédérique; Claudet, Joachim

    2018-04-01

    An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social-ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social-ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social-ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social-ecological vulnerability based on information on human-nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small-scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social-ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human-nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory

  13. A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2013-01-01

    Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth).

  14. Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

    2007-01-01

    A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  15. The Hestia Project: High Spatial Resolution Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Quantification at Hourly Scale in Indianapolis, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Gurney, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    In order to advance the scientific understanding of carbon exchange with the land surface and contribute to sound, quantitatively-based U.S. climate change policy interests, quantification of greenhouse gases emissions drivers at fine spatial and temporal scales is essential. Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the primary greenhouse gases, has become a key component to cost-effective CO2 emissions mitigation options and a carbon trading system. Called the ‘Hestia Project’, this pilot study generated CO2 emissions down to high spatial resolution and hourly scale for the greater Indianapolis region in the USA through the use of air quality and traffic monitoring data, remote sensing, GIS, and building energy modeling. The CO2 emissions were constructed from three data source categories: area, point, and mobile. For the area source emissions, we developed an energy consumption model using DOE/EIA survey data on building characteristics and energy consumption. With the Vulcan Project’s county-level CO2 emissions and simulated building energy consumption, we quantified the CO2 emissions for each individual building by allocating Vulcan emissions to roughly 50,000 structures in Indianapolis. The temporal pattern of CO2 emissions in each individual building was developed based on temporal patterns of energy consumption. The point sources emissions were derived from the EPA National Emissions Inventory data and effluent monitoring of electricity producing facilities. The mobile source CO2 emissions were estimated at the month/county scale using the Mobile6 combustion model and the National Mobile Inventory Model database. The month/county scale mobile source CO2 emissions were downscaled to the “native” spatial resolution of road segments every hour using a GIS road atlas and traffic monitoring data. The result is shown in Figure 1. The resulting urban-scale inventory can serve as a baseline of current CO2 emissions and should be of immediate use to

  16. Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

    2016-12-01

    Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study

  17. Time gradient for post-test vulnerability to scopolamine-induced amnesia following the initial acquisition session of a spatial reference memory task in mice.

    PubMed

    Toumane, A; Durkin, T P

    1993-09-01

    The time course for vulnerability to the amnestic effects of the cholinergic antagonist, scopolamine, during the postacquisition period has been investigated. We have examined the effects of post-test injections of scopolamine (1 mg/kg ip) given at different times from 30 s for up to 6 h following the end of the first acquisition session of a concurrent spatial discrimination (reference memory) protocol in an 8-arm radial maze on subsequent long-term (24 h) retention performance in C57BL/6 mice. Results show that the immediate (30 s) post-test injection of scopolamine-HCl on Day 1 produces marked perturbation (amnesia) of long-term retention as attested to by significant deficits in various indices of spatial discrimination performance gain on Day 2 as compared to control subjects injected either with scopolamine-MBr or saline. The severity of this scopolamine-induced amnesia declines only slightly as a function of the treatment period 30 s-3 h post-test. However, no evidence for amnesia is observed if scopolamine-HCl injections are delayed for 6 h postsession. This important latter observation attests to the absence of any significant proactive effects of scopolamine on the ability of mice to perform the retention test via possible long-term effects on attention, motivation, or locomotor performance. These results thus constitute evidence for the existence of a limited (30 s-3 h) time gradient for vulnerability of the early memory trace to disruption by scopolamine. The present results are discussed in relation to our previous direct neurochemical observations describing the differential time courses of intervention of the ascending septohippocampal and nBM-cortical cholinergic pathways in the postlearning period. In particular, the presently observed time window concerning post-test vulnerability to scopolamine-induced amnesia corresponds more closely to the time course of the acute activation of the nBM-cortical cholinergic pathway, induced by testing with the

  18. A GIS Approach to Identifying Socially and Medically Vulnerable Older Adult Populations in South Florida.

    PubMed

    Hames, Elizabeth; Stoler, Justin; Emrich, Christopher T; Tewary, Sweta; Pandya, Naushira

    2017-11-10

    We define, map, and analyze geodemographic patterns of socially and medically vulnerable older adults within the tri-county region of South Florida. We apply principal components analysis (PCA) to a set of previously identified indicators of social and medical vulnerability at the census tract level. We create and map age-stratified vulnerability scores using a geographic information system (GIS), and use spatial analysis techniques to identify patterns and interactions between social and medical vulnerability. Key factors contributing to social vulnerability in areas with higher numbers of older adults include age, large household size, and Hispanic ethnicity. Medical vulnerability in these same areas is driven by disease burden, access to emergency cardiac services, availability of nursing home and hospice beds, access to home health care, and available mental health services. Age-dependent areas of social vulnerability emerge in Broward County, whereas age-dependent areas of medical vulnerability emerge in Palm Beach County. Older-adult social and medical vulnerability interact differently throughout the study area. Spatial analysis of older adult social and medical vulnerability using PCA and GIS can help identify age-dependent pockets of vulnerability that are not easily identifiable in a populationwide analysis; improve our understanding of the dynamic spatial organization of health care, health care needs, access to care, and outcomes; and ultimately serve as a tool for health care planning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Electrical resistivity tomography determines the spatial distribution of clay layer thickness and aquifer vulnerability, Kandal Province, Cambodia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlemann, Sebastian; Kuras, Oliver; Richards, Laura A.; Naden, Emma; Polya, David A.

    2017-10-01

    Despite being rich in water resources, many areas of South East Asia face difficulties in securing clean water supply. This is particularly problematic in regions with a rapidly growing population. In this study, the spatial variability of the thickness of a clay layer, controlling surface - groundwater interactions that affect aquifer vulnerability, was investigated using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Data were acquired along two transects, showing significant differences in the imaged resistivities. Borehole samples were analyzed regarding particle density and composition, and linked to their resistivity. The obtained relationships were used to translate the field electrical resistivities into lithologies. Those revealed considerable variations in the thickness of the clay layer, ranging from 0 m up to 25 m. Geochemical data, highlighting zones of increased ingress of surface water into the groundwater, confirmed areas of discontinuities in the clay layer, which act as preferential flow paths. The results may guide urban planning of the Phnom Penh city expansion, in order to supply the growing population with safe water. The presented approach of using geophysics to estimate groundwater availability, accessibility, and vulnerability is not only applicable to Kandal Province, Cambodia, but also to many other areas of fast urbanization in South East Asia and beyond.

  20. Spatial distribution and health risk assessment for groundwater contamination from intensive pesticide use in arid areas.

    PubMed

    El Alfy, Mohamed; Faraj, Turki

    2017-02-01

    Arid and semiarid areas face major challenges in the management of scarce groundwater. This valuable resource is under pressures of population, economic expansion, contamination and over-exploitation. This research investigates groundwater vulnerability to pesticide contamination in the Al-Kharj area of Saudi Arabia. It explores the spatial distribution of pesticide concentrations in groundwater and other relevant factors. Thin permeable soils, permeable aquifers and shallow water tables, which are prevalent in the area, are especially vulnerable to pesticides. Analyses of 40 groundwater samples were performed using a gas chromatograph mass spectrometer coupled with a quadrupole mass spectrometer with a GC column. The analysis was conducted to detect 32 pesticides from different chemical families, and a total of 22 pesticides were detected. All 40 water samples were positive for at least one of the pesticides studied. In total, 21 compounds were above the quantification limit and 10 of them exceeded the legal limit. Total pesticide levels ranged from 0.18 to 2.21 μg/L, and 68 % of the analyzed samples exceeded the maximum allowable pesticide concentrations established by the European Community. Comparison of the daily intake peak (DIP) and daily intake mean (DIM) relative to the acceptable daily intake (ADI) shows that groundwater contamination with pesticides is a serious problem. Prolonged exposure to pesticides can cause adverse effects to human health and the ecosystem. Spatial distribution maps of groundwater contamination were developed using GIS. These maps will help risk managers identify vulnerable sources and provide a relative assessment of pesticide hazards to human health and the environment.

  1. Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network

  2. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified

  3. Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small Island: evidence from Sagar Island, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, S.; Satpati, L. N.; Choudhury, B. U.; Sadhu, S.

    2018-04-01

    The present study assessed climate change vulnerability in agricultural sector of low-lying Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal. Vulnerability indices were estimated using spatially aggregated biophysical and socio-economic parameters by applying principal component analysis and equal weight method. The similarities and differences of outputs of these two methods were analysed across the island. From the integration of outputs and based on the severity of vulnerability, explicit vulnerable zones were demarcated spatially. Results revealed that life subsistence agriculture in 11.8% geographical area (2829 ha) of the island along the western coast falls under very high vulnerable zone (VHVZ VI of 84-99%) to climate change. Comparatively higher values of exposure (0.53 ± 0.26) and sensitivity (0.78 ± 0.14) subindices affirmed that the VHV zone is highly exposed to climate stressor with very low adaptive capacity (ADI= 0.24 ± 0.16) to combat vulnerability to climate change. Hence, food security for a population of >22 thousands comprising >3.7 thousand agrarian households are highly exposed to climate change. Another 17% area comprising 17.5% population covering 20% villages in north-western and eastern parts of the island also falls under high vulnerable (VI= 61%-77%) zone. Findings revealed large spatial heterogeneity in the degree of vulnerability across the island and thus, demands devising area specific planning (adaptation and mitigation strategies) to address the climate change impact implications both at macro and micro levels.

  4. [Mapping environmental vulnerability from ETM + data in the Yellow River Mouth Area].

    PubMed

    Wang, Rui-Yan; Yu, Zhen-Wen; Xia, Yan-Ling; Wang, Xiang-Feng; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Jiang, Shu-Qian

    2013-10-01

    The environmental vulnerability retrieval is important to support continuing data. The spatial distribution of regional environmental vulnerability was got through remote sensing retrieval. In view of soil and vegetation, the environmental vulnerability evaluation index system was built, and the environmental vulnerability of sampling points was calculated by the AHP-fuzzy method, then the correlation between the sampling points environmental vulnerability and ETM + spectral reflectance ratio including some kinds of conversion data was analyzed to determine the sensitive spectral parameters. Based on that, models of correlation analysis, traditional regression, BP neural network and support vector regression were taken to explain the quantitative relationship between the spectral reflectance and the environmental vulnerability. With this model, the environmental vulnerability distribution was retrieved in the Yellow River Mouth Area. The results showed that the correlation between the environmental vulnerability and the spring NDVI, the September NDVI and the spring brightness was better than others, so they were selected as the sensitive spectral parameters. The model precision result showed that in addition to the support vector model, the other model reached the significant level. While all the multi-variable regression was better than all one-variable regression, and the model accuracy of BP neural network was the best. This study will serve as a reliable theoretical reference for the large spatial scale environmental vulnerability estimation based on remote sensing data.

  5. Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area

    PubMed Central

    de Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez; de Almeida, Andréa Sobral; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. METHODS This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran’s I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran’s I was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. PMID:28513764

  6. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Treesearch

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  7. Methane fugitive emissions quantification using the novel 'plume camera' (spatial correlation) method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosson, E.; Rella, C.

    2012-12-01

    Fugitive emissions of methane into the atmosphere are a major concern facing the natural gas production industry. Given that the global warming potential of methane is many times greater than that of carbon dioxide, the importance of quantifying methane emissions becomes clear. The rapidly increasing reliance on shale gas (or other unconventional sources) is only intensifying the interest in fugitive methane releases. Natural gas (which is predominantly methane) is an attractive energy source, as it emits 40% less carbon dioxide per Joule of energy generated than coal. However, if just a small percentage of the natural gas consumed is lost due to fugitive emissions during production, processing, or transport, this global warming benefit is lost (Howarth et al. 2012). It is therefore imperative, as production of natural gas increases, that the fugitive emissions of methane are quantified accurately. Traditional direct measurement techniques often involve physical access of the leak itself to quantify the emissions rate, and are generally require painstaking effort to first find the leak and then quantify the emissions rate. With over half a million natural gas producing wells in the U.S. (U.S. Energy Information Administration), not including the associated processing, storage, and transport facilities, and with each facility having hundreds or even thousands of fittings that can potentially leak, the need is clear to develop methodologies that can provide a rapid and accurate assessment of the total emissions rate on a per-well head basis. In this paper we present a novel method for emissions quantification which uses a 'plume camera' with three 'pixels' to quantify emissions using direct measurements of methane concentration in the downwind plume. By analyzing the spatial correlation between the pixels, the spatial extent of the instantaneous plume can be inferred. This information, when combined with the wind speed through the measurement plane, provides a direct

  8. Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Quintão, Ana Flávia; Brito, Isabela; Oliveira, Frederico; Madureira, Ana Paula; Confalonieri, Ulisses

    2017-01-01

    Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named "Index of Human Vulnerability" and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais.

  9. Dynamic Flood Vulnerability Mapping with Google Earth Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tellman, B.; Kuhn, C.; Max, S. A.; Sullivan, J.

    2015-12-01

    Satellites capture the rate and character of environmental change from local to global levels, yet integrating these changes into flood exposure models can be cost or time prohibitive. We explore an approach to global flood modeling by leveraging satellite data with computing power in Google Earth Engine to dynamically map flood hazards. Our research harnesses satellite imagery in two main ways: first to generate a globally consistent flood inundation layer and second to dynamically model flood vulnerability. Accurate and relevant hazard maps rely on high quality observation data. Advances in publicly available spatial, spectral, and radar data together with cloud computing allow us to improve existing efforts to develop a comprehensive flood extent database to support model training and calibration. This talk will demonstrate the classification results of algorithms developed in Earth Engine designed to detect flood events by combining observations from MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-1. Our method to derive flood footprints increases the number, resolution, and precision of spatial observations for flood events both in the US, recorded in the NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) storm events database, and globally, as recorded events from the Colorado Flood Observatory database. This improved dataset can then be used to train machine learning models that relate spatial temporal flood observations to satellite derived spatial temporal predictor variables such as precipitation, antecedent soil moisture, and impervious surface. This modeling approach allows us to rapidly update models with each new flood observation, providing near real time vulnerability maps. We will share the water detection algorithms used with each satellite and discuss flood detection results with examples from Bihar, India and the state of New York. We will also demonstrate how these flood observations are used to train machine learning models and estimate flood exposure. The final stage of

  10. Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaMotte, A.E.; Greene, E.A.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

  11. SYNTHESIS OF SPATIAL DATA FOR DECISION-MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA'S Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA) has developed a web-based statistical tool that synthesizes available spatial data into indices of condition, vulnerability (risk, considering cumulative effects), and feasibility of management options. The Environmental Deci...

  12. Drought disaster vulnerability mapping of agricultural sector in Bringin District, Semarang Regency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestari, D. R.; Pigawati, B.

    2018-02-01

    Agriculture sector is a sector that is directly affected by drought. The phenomenon of drought disaster on agriculture sector has occurred in Semarang regency. One of districts in Semarang which is affected by drought is Bringin district. Bringin district is a productive agricultural area. However, the district experienced the most severe drought in 2015. The question research of this study is, “How is the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district, Semarang regency?” The purpose of this study is to determine the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability on agriculture sector to village units in Bringin district. This study investigated drought vulnerability based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by analyzing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity through mapping process. This study used quantitative approach. There were formulation analysis, scoring analysis, and overlay analysis. Drought vulnerability on agriculture sector in Bringin district was divided into three categories: low, medium, and high.

  13. Developing Spatial Management Options for the Protection of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the South Pacific Ocean Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowden, A. A.; Lundquist, C. J.; Clark, M. R.; Anderson, O. F.; Guinotte, J. M.; Baird, S. J.; Roux, M. J.; Wadhwa, S.

    2016-02-01

    The South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) Convention includes specific provisions to protect vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). The SPRFMO Commission has determined that the interim measures put in place to protect VMEs would be replaced by an improved system of fishable and closed areas. These closures would effectively represent a preliminary spatial management plan, whereby conservation and management measures are implemented that will result in sustainable fisheries and benthic protection. We used the conservation planning tool Zonation to develop spatial management options that balance the protection of VMEs with utilisation of high value areas for fishing. Input data included habitat suitability maps, and uncertainties associated with these model predictions, for eleven VME indicator taxa (4 Scleractinian coral species; 3 other cnidarian groups (Family Stylasteridae, Order Antipatharia, Order Pennatulacea; 2 classes of sponges (Demospongiae, Hexactinellidae), and 2 echninoderm groups (Crinoidea and Brisingida)) at bathyal depths across the entire SPRFMO area (divided into 1 km2 grid cells); New Zealand fishing catch data (for two different time periods and trawl types); naturalness (represented by proxy variable using the number of trawl tows); and a bioregionalisation scheme. Running various scenario models for spatial planning allowed for the cost to fishing to be determined, in terms of the amount of the trawl catch footprint lost if high priority areas for VME indicator taxa are protected. Generally, the cost to fishing was low given the relatively high proportion of suitable habitat for VME indicator taxa protected. The main outcome of the present study is a demonstration of the practical utility of using available data, including modelled data, and the Zonation conservation planning software tool to develop options for the spatial management of the SPRFMO area.

  14. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

    PubMed Central

    Hodgson, Emma E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kaplan, Isaac C.

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate. PMID:27416031

  15. Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

    PubMed

    Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

    2016-01-01

    Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

  16. Chronic Glucocorticoids Increase Hippocampal Vulnerability to Neurotoxicity under Conditions That Produce CA3 Dendritic Retraction But Fail to Impair Spatial Recognition Memory

    PubMed Central

    Conrad, Cheryl D.; McLaughlin, Katie J.; Harman, James S.; Foltz, Cainan; Wieczorek, Lindsay; Lightner, Elizabeth; Wright, Ryan L.

    2007-01-01

    We previously found that chronic stress conditions producing CA3 dendritic retraction and spatial memory deficits make the hippocampus vulnerable to the neurotoxin ibotenic acid (IBO). The purpose of this study was to determine whether exposure to chronic corticosterone (CORT) under conditions that produce CA3 dendritic retraction would enhance CA3 susceptibility to IBO. Male Sprague Dawley rats were chronically treated for 21 d with CORT in drinking water (400 μg/ml), and half were given daily injections of phenytoin (40 mg/kg), an antiepileptic drug that prevents CA3 dendritic retraction. Three days after treatments stopped, IBO was infused into the CA3 region. Conditions producing CA3 dendritic retraction (CORT and vehicle) exacerbated IBO-induced CA3 damage compared with conditions in which CA3 dendritic retraction was not observed (vehicle and vehicle, vehicle and phenytoin, CORT and phenytoin). Additionally, spatial recognition memory was assessed using the Y-maze, revealing that conditions producing CA3 dendritic retraction failed to impair spatial recognition memory. Furthermore, CORT levels in response to a potentially mild stressor (injection and Y-maze exposure) stayed at basal levels and failed to differ among key groups (vehicle and vehicle, CORT and vehicle, CORT and phenytoin), supporting the interpretations that CORT levels were unlikely to have been elevated during IBO infusion and that the neuroprotective actions of phenytoin were not through CORT alterations. These data are the first to show that conditions with prolonged glucocorticoid elevations leading to structural changes in hippocampal dendritic arbors can make the hippocampus vulnerable to neurotoxic challenges. These findings have significance for many disorders with elevated glucocorticoids that include depression, schizophrenia, Alzheimer’s disease, and Cushing’s disease. PMID:17670974

  17. An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

    2009-04-01

    -economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to

  18. Economic vulnerability of timber resources to forest fires.

    PubMed

    y Silva, Francisco Rodríguez; Molina, Juan Ramón; González-Cabán, Armando; Machuca, Miguel Ángel Herrera

    2012-06-15

    The temporal-spatial planning of activities for a territorial fire management program requires knowing the value of forest ecosystems. In this paper we extend to and apply the economic valuation principle to the concept of economic vulnerability and present a methodology for the economic valuation of the forest production ecosystems. The forest vulnerability is analyzed from criteria intrinsically associated to the forest characterization, and to the potential behavior of surface fires. Integrating a mapping process of fire potential and analytical valuation algorithms facilitates the implementation of fire prevention planning. The availability of cartography of economic vulnerability of the forest ecosystems is fundamental for budget optimization, and to help in the decision making process. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  20. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  1. Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 vulnerable; 4< DI ≤ 5 stands for more vulnerable; 5vulnerable; 7vulnerable; DI> 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial

  2. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  3. Spatial modeling of environmental vulnerability of marine finfish aquaculture using GIS-based neuro-fuzzy techniques.

    PubMed

    Navas, Juan Moreno; Telfer, Trevor C; Ross, Lindsay G

    2011-08-01

    Combining GIS with neuro-fuzzy modeling has the advantage that expert scientific knowledge in coastal aquaculture activities can be incorporated into a geospatial model to classify areas particularly vulnerable to pollutants. Data on the physical environment and its suitability for aquaculture in an Irish fjard, which is host to a number of different aquaculture activities, were derived from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and GIS models. Subsequent incorporation into environmental vulnerability models, based on neuro-fuzzy techniques, highlighted localities particularly vulnerable to aquaculture development. The models produced an overall classification accuracy of 85.71%, with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%, and were sensitive to different input parameters. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and nitrogen concentrations in sediment associated with salmon cages showed good correlation. Neuro-fuzzy techniques within GIS modeling classify vulnerability of coastal regions appropriately and have a role in policy decisions for aquaculture site selection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

    2017-09-01

    Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

  5. Uncertainty quantification in flux balance analysis of spatially lumped and distributed models of neuron-astrocyte metabolism.

    PubMed

    Calvetti, Daniela; Cheng, Yougan; Somersalo, Erkki

    2016-12-01

    Identifying feasible steady state solutions of a brain energy metabolism model is an inverse problem that allows infinitely many solutions. The characterization of the non-uniqueness, or the uncertainty quantification of the flux balance analysis, is tantamount to identifying the degrees of freedom of the solution. The degrees of freedom of multi-compartment mathematical models for energy metabolism of a neuron-astrocyte complex may offer a key to understand the different ways in which the energetic needs of the brain are met. In this paper we study the uncertainty in the solution, using techniques of linear algebra to identify the degrees of freedom in a lumped model, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in its extension to a spatially distributed case. The interpretation of the degrees of freedom in metabolic terms, more specifically, glucose and oxygen partitioning, is then leveraged to derive constraints on the free parameters to guarantee that the model is energetically feasible. We demonstrate how the model can be used to estimate the stoichiometric energy needs of the cells as well as the household energy based on the measured oxidative cerebral metabolic rate of glucose and glutamate cycling. Moreover, our analysis shows that in the lumped model the net direction of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in the cells can be deduced from the glucose partitioning between the compartments. The extension of the lumped model to a spatially distributed multi-compartment setting that includes diffusion fluxes from capillary to tissue increases the number of degrees of freedom, requiring the use of statistical sampling techniques. The analysis of the distributed model reveals that some of the conclusions valid for the spatially lumped model, e.g., concerning the LDH activity and glucose partitioning, may no longer hold.

  6. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  7. Quantification of Cannabinoid Content in Cannabis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Y.; Zhang, F.; Jia, K.; Wen, M.; Yuan, Ch.

    2015-09-01

    Cannabis is an economically important plant that is used in many fields, in addition to being the most commonly consumed illicit drug worldwide. Monitoring the spatial distribution of cannabis cultivation and judging whether it is drug- or fiber-type cannabis is critical for governments and international communities to understand the scale of the illegal drug trade. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the cannabinoids content in cannabis could be spectrally quantified using a spectrometer and to identify the optimal wavebands for quantifying the cannabinoid content. Spectral reflectance data of dried cannabis leaf samples and the cannabis canopy were measured in the laboratory and in the field, respectively. Correlation analysis and the stepwise multivariate regression method were used to select the optimal wavebands for cannabinoid content quantification based on the laboratory-measured spectral data. The results indicated that the delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content in cannabis leaves could be quantified using laboratory-measured spectral reflectance data and that the 695 nm band is the optimal band for THC content quantification. This study provides prerequisite information for designing spectral equipment to enable immediate quantification of THC content in cannabis and to discriminate drug- from fiber-type cannabis based on THC content quantification in the field.

  8. Ozone distribution in remote ecologically vulnerable terrain of the southern Sierra Nevada, CA.

    PubMed

    Panek, Jeanne; Saah, David; Esperanza, Annie; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Fraczek, Witold; Cisneros, Ricardo

    2013-11-01

    Ozone concentration spatial patterns remain largely uncharacterized across the extensive wilderness areas of the Sierra Nevada, CA, despite being downwind of major pollution sources. These natural areas, including four national parks and four national forests, contain forest species that are susceptible to ozone injury. Forests stressed by ozone are also more vulnerable to other agents of mortality, including insects, pathogens, climate change, and ultimately fire. Here we analyze three years of passive ozone monitor data from the southern Sierra Nevada and interpolate landscape-scale spatial and temporal patterns during the summer-through-fall high ozone concentration period. Segmentation analysis revealed three types of ozone exposure sub-regions: high, low, and variable. Consistently high ozone exposure regions are expected to be most vulnerable to forest mortality. One high exposure sub-region has been documented elsewhere as being further vulnerable to increased drought and fire potential. Identifying such hot-spots of forest vulnerability has utility for prioritizing management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

    PubMed

    Bergman, Eric J; Garrott, Robert A; Creel, Scott; Borkowski, John J; Jaffe, Rosemary; Watson, E G R

    2006-02-01

    Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.

  10. Optically based quantification of absolute cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) with high spatial resolution in rodents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaseen, Mohammad A.; Srinivasan, Vivek J.; Sakadžić, Sava; Vinogradov, Sergei A.; Boas, David A.

    2010-02-01

    Measuring oxygen delivery in brain tissue is important for identifying the pathophysiological changes associated with brain injury and various diseases such as cancer, stroke, and Alzheimer's disease. We have developed a multi-modal imaging system for minimally invasive measurement of cerebral oxygenation and blood flow in small animals with high spatial resolution. The system allows for simultaneous measurement of blood flow using Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography, and oxygen partial pressure (pO2) using either confocal or multiphoton phosphorescence lifetime imaging with exogenous porphyrin-based dyes sensitive to dissolved oxygen. Here we present the changes in pO2 and blood flow in superficial cortical vessels of Sprague Dawley rats in response to conditions such as hypoxia, hyperoxia, and functional stimulation. pO2 measurements display considerable heterogeneity over distances that cannot be resolved with more widely used oxygen-monitoring techniques such as BOLD-fMRI. Large increases in blood flow are observed in response to functional stimulation and hypoxia. Our system allows for quantification of cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) with high spatial resolution, providing a better understanding of metabolic dynamics during functional stimulation and under various neuropathologies. Ultimately, better insight into the underlying mechanisms of neuropathologies will facilitate the development of improved therapeutic strategies to minimize damage to brain tissue.

  11. Intrinsic and specific vulnerability of groundwater in central Spain: the risk of nitrate pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Bastida, Juan J.; Arauzo, Mercedes; Valladolid, Maria

    2010-05-01

    The intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater in the Comunidad de Madrid (central Spain) was evaluated using the DRASTIC and GOD indexes. Groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution was also assessed using the composite DRASTIC (CD) and nitrate vulnerability (NV) indexes. The utility of these methods was tested by analyzing the spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations in the different aquifers located in the study area: the Tertiary Detrital Aquifer, the Moor Limestone Aquifer, the Cretaceous Limestone Aquifer and the Quaternary Aquifer. Vulnerability maps based on these four indexes showed very similar results, identifying the Quaternary Aquifer and the lower sub-unit of the Moor Limestone Aquifer as deposits subjected to a high risk of nitrate pollution due to intensive agriculture. As far as the spatial distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations is concerned, the NV index showed the greatest statistical significance ( p < 0.01). This new type of multiplicative model offers greater accuracy in estimations of specific vulnerability with respect to the real impact of each type of land use. The results of this study provide a basis on which to guide the designation of nitrate vulnerable zones in the Comunidad de Madrid, in line with European Union Directive 91/676/EEC.

  12. A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

    PubMed

    Salvati, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  14. Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

    2012-04-01

    logistic regression, varimax rotation, multiple-criteria decision analysis, weight of evidence, multi-criteria evaluation method etc. The approach started from the local level which allows a functional and structural analysis and was progressively translated to an upper level and to a spatial analysis. The model shows that changing the level of analysis diminishes the functional significance of some indicators and increases the capacity of discretization in the case of others, highlighting the spatial and functional complexity of vulnerability.

  15. Drought vulnerability assessment of maize in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from physical and social perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamali, Bahareh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Wehrli, Bernhard; Yang, Hong

    2018-03-01

    Drought as a slow-onset phenomenon inflicts important losses to agriculture where the degree of vulnerability depends not only on physical variables such as precipitation and temperature, but also on societal preparedness. While the scopes of physical and social vulnerability are very different in nature, studies distinguishing these two aspects have been lacking. In this study we address the physical and social aspects of drought vulnerability of maize (CDVIphy and CDVIsoc) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To quantify vulnerability, we applied a probabilistic framework combining a Drought Exposure Index (DEI) with a physical or social Crop Failure Index, CFIphy or CFIsoc, respectively. DEI was derived from the exceedance probability of precipitation. Maize yields, simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, were used to build CFIphy, whereas the residual of simulated and FAO recorded yields were used to construct CFIsoc. The results showed that southern and partially central Africa are more vulnerable to physical drought as compared to other regions. Central and western Africa, however, are socially highly vulnerable. Comparison of CDVIphy and CDVIsoc revealed that societal factors cause more vulnerability than physical variables in almost all SSA countries except Nigeria and South Africa. We conclude that quantification of both drought vulnerabilities help a better characterization of droughts and identify regions where more investments in drought preparedness are required.

  16. [Ecological vulnerability of coal mining area: a case study of Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia, China].

    PubMed

    Quan, Zhan-Jun; Li, Yuan; Li, Jun-Sheng; Han, Yu; Xiao, Neng-Wen; Fu, Meng-Di

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, an ecological vulnerability evaluation index system for the Shengli Coalfield in Xilinguole of Inner Mongolia was established, which included 16 factors in ecological sensitivity, natural and social pressure, and ecological recovery capacity, respectively. Based on the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an ecological vulnerability model was built for the calculation of the regional ecological vulnerability by means of RS and GIS spatial analysis. An analysis of the relationships between land use and ecological vulnerability was also made, and the results were tested by spatial auto-correlation analysis. Overall, the ecological vulnerability of the study area was at medium-high level. The exploitation of four opencast areas in the Coalfield caused a significant increase of ecological vulnerability. Moreover, due to the effects of mine drained water and human activities, the 300 -2000 m around the opencast areas was turning into higher ecologically fragile area. With further exploitation, the whole Coalfield was evolved into moderate and heavy ecological vulnerability area, and the coal resources mining was a key factor in this process. The cluster analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability in the study area had reasonable clustering characteristics. To decrease the population density, control the grazing capacity of grassland, and regulate the ratios of construction land and cultivated land could be the optimal ways for resolving the natural and social pressure, and to increase the investment and improve the vegetation recovery coefficient could be the fundamental measures for decreasing the ecological vulnerability of the study area.

  17. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  18. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

    PubMed

    Liévanos, Raoul S

    2018-04-16

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  19. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

  20. Social, Environmental, and Health Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of the Municipalities of Minas Gerais, Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Brito, Isabela; Oliveira, Frederico; Madureira, Ana Paula

    2017-01-01

    Vulnerability to climate change is a complex and dynamic phenomenon involving both social and physical/environmental aspects. It is presented as a method for the quantification of the vulnerability of all municipalities of Minas Gerais, a state in southeastern Brazil. It is based on the aggregation of different kinds of environmental, climatic, social, institutional, and epidemiological variables, to form a composite index. This was named “Index of Human Vulnerability” and was calculated using a software (SisVuClima®) specifically developed for this purpose. Social, environmental, and health data were combined with the climatic scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, downscaled from ETA-HadGEM2-ES for each municipality. The Index of Human Vulnerability associated with the RCP 8.5 has shown a higher vulnerability for municipalities in the southern and eastern parts of the state of Minas Gerais. PMID:28465693

  1. Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandolini, P.; Faccini, F.; Piccazzo, M.

    2006-06-01

    The many trails existing in the coastal area of Portofino Promontory are used by tourists for trekking or as pathways to small villages and beaches. The aim of this paper is to define geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability in this area, within the framework of the management and planning of hiking activities in Portofino Natural Park. In particular, processes triggered by gravity, running waters and wave motion, affecting the slopes and the cliff, are considered. The typology of the trails and trail maintenance are also taken into account in relation to weather conditions that can make the excursion routes dangerous for tourists. In conclusion, an operative model is applied for the definition of possible risk scenarios. This model is founded on an inventory and the quantification of geomorphological hazards and tourist vulnerability, in comparison with trail rescue data. The model can be applied to other environments and tourist areas.

  2. Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards.

    PubMed

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Renaud, Fabrice G; Haas, Susanne; Sebesvari, Zita

    2018-08-01

    Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Chung, E.-S.

    2015-04-01

    This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines the VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multiple criteria. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. This approach effectively can propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the southern Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the spatial flood vulnerability using general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods (i.e., Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland). As a result, the proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

  4. Spatial-temporal analysis of dengue deaths: identifying social vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Silva, Maria do Socorro da; Branco, Maria Dos Remédios Freitas Carvalho; Aquino, José; Queiroz, Rejane Christine de Sousa; Bani, Emanuele; Moreira, Emnielle Pinto Borges; Medeiros, Maria Nilza Lima; Rodrigues, Zulimar Márita Ribeiro

    2017-01-01

    Currently, dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and zika virus represent serious public health issues in Brazil, despite efforts to control the vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This was a descriptive and ecological study of dengue deaths occurring from 2002 to 2013 in São Luis, Maranhão, Brazil. Geoprocessing software was used to draw maps, linking the geo-referenced deaths with urban/social data at census tract level. There were 74 deaths, concentrated in areas of social vulnerability. The use of geo-technology tools pointed to a concentration of dengue deaths in specific intra-urban areas.

  5. Quantification of the memory imprint effect for a charged particle environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhuva, B. L.; Johnson, R. L., Jr.; Gyurcsik, R. S.; Kerns, S. E.; Fernald, K. W.

    1987-01-01

    The effects of total accumulated dose on the single-event vulnerability of NMOS resistive-load SRAMs are investigated. The bias-dependent shifts in device parameters can imprint the memory state present during exposure or erase the imprinted state. Analysis of these effects is presented along with an analytic model developed for the quantification of these effects. The results indicate that the imprint effect is dominated by the difference in the threshold voltage of the n-channel devices.

  6. Barometric response functions from borehole water level records and quantification of aquifer vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odling, N. E.; Serrano, R. P.; Hussein, M.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.

    2013-12-01

    In confined and semi-confined aquifers, borehole water levels respond to fluctuations in barometric pressure and this response can be used to estimate the properties of aquifer confining layers. We use this response as indicator of groundwater vulnerability for the semi-confined Chalk aquifer in East Yorkshire, UK. Time series data of borehole water levels are corrected for Earth tides and recharge, and barometric response functions (BRFs) estimated using cross-spectral deconvolution-averaging techniques. The resulting BRFs are fitted using a theoretical model of the BRF gain and phase for a semi-confined aquifer (Rojstaczer, 1988) to obtain confining layer properties. For all of the boreholes, non-zero hydraulic diffusivities for the confining layer were found indicating that the aquifer is semi-confined. A ';characteristic time scale' based on the hydraulic and pneumatic diffusivities of the confining layer is introduced as a measure of the degree of aquifer confinement and therefore groundwater vulnerability. The analytical model assumes that the confining layer and aquifer are homogeneous. However, in nature, confining layers are heterogeneous and groundwater vulnerability dominated by the presence of high diffusivity, high flow pathways through the confining layer to the aquifer. A transient numerical model (MODFLOW) was constructed to test the impact of such heterogeneities on the BRF. In the model, an observed barometric pressure time series is used as a boundary condition applied to the upper surface of the top unit of the model (representing the confining layer) and BRFs determined from the time series of model heads in the bottom unit (representing the aquifer). The results from a numerical model with a homogeneous confining layer were found to accurately reproduce the BRFs from a modified version of the analytical model. The introduction of a localized, high diffusive block in the confining layer was found to modify the BRF, reducing the gain amplitude

  7. On the Scaling Behavior of Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Risk indices such as reliability-resilience-vulnerability (R-R-V) have been proposed to assess watershed health. In this study, the spatial scaling behavior of R-R-V indices has been explored for five agricultural watersheds in the midwestern United States. The study was conducted using two different measures of spatial scale: (i) the ratio of contributing upland area to area required for channel initiation (FA), and (ii) Strahler stream order. It was found that R-R-V indices do change with spatial scale, but a representative watershed-specific threshold FA value exists for these indices to achieve stable values. Scaling with Strahler stream order is feasible if the watershed possesses a tree-like stream network. As an example of anthropogenic influences, this study also examined the role of BMPs placed within an agricultural watershed via a cost-effective optimization scheme on the evolution of R-R-V values with scale. While the placement of BMPs acheived reductions in concentrations and/or loads of constituents, they may not significantly change watershed risk measures, but are likely to cause significant reduction in vulnerability. If primarily upland BMPs are placed in a diffuse manner throughout the watershed, there might not be a significant change in the scaling behavior of R-R-V values. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the effect of spatial scale on risk-based watershed health assessment. A related objective is to examine wh

  8. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

    2009-04-01

    flood. In the case of farm activities, vulnerability mitigation consists in implementing measures which can be: physical (equipment or electric power system elevation), organizational (emergency or recovery plan) or financial (insurance). These measures aim at decreasing the total damage incurred by farmers in case of flooding. For instance, if equipment is elevated, it will not suffer direct damage such as degradation. As a consequence, equipment will be available to continue production or recovery tasks, thus, avoiding indirect damage such as delays, indebtedness… The effects of these policies on farms, in particular vulnerability mitigation cannot be appraised using current methodologies mainly because they do not consider farm as a whole and focus on direct damage at the land plot scale (loss of yield). Moreover, since vulnerability mitigation policies are quite recent, few examples of implementation exist and no feedback experience can be processed. Meanwhile, decision makers and financial actors require more justification of the efficiency of public fund by economic appraisal of the projects. On the Rhône River, decision makers asked for an economic evaluation of the program of farm vulnerability mitigation they plan to implement. This implies to identify the effects of the measures to mitigate farm vulnerability, and to classify them by comparing their efficacy (avoided damage) and their cost of implementation. In this presentation, we propose and discuss a conceptual model of vulnerability at the farm scale. The modelling, in Unified Modelling Language, enabled to represent the ties between spatial, organizational and temporal dimensions, which are central to understanding of farm vulnerability and resilience to flooding. Through this modelling, we encompass three goals: To improve the comprehension of farm vulnerability and create a framework that allow discussion with experts of different disciplines as well as with local farmers; To identify data which

  9. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  10. Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

    PubMed

    Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

    2014-01-01

    Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

  11. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  12. Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

    PubMed

    Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

    Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

  13. Fuzzy-based assessment of groundwater intrinsic vulnerability of a volcanic aquifer in the Chilean Andean Valley.

    PubMed

    Duhalde, Denisse J; Arumí, José L; Oyarzún, Ricardo A; Rivera, Diego A

    2018-06-11

    A fuzzy logic approach has been proposed to face the uncertainty caused by sparse data in the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of a groundwater system with parametric methods in Las Trancas Valley, Andean Mountain, south-central Chile, a popular touristic place in Chile, but lacking of a centralized drinking and sewage water public systems; this situation is a potentially source of groundwater pollution. Based on DRASTIC, GOD, and EKv and the expert knowledge of the study area, the Mamdani fuzzy approach was generated and the spatial data were processed by ArcGIS. The groundwater system exhibited areas with high, medium, and low intrinsic vulnerability indices. The fuzzy approach results were compared with traditional methods results, which, in general, have shown a good spatial agreement even though significant changes were also identified in the spatial distribution of the indices. The Mamdani logic approach has shown to be a useful and practical tool to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of an aquifer under sparse data conditions.

  14. Hazard-Specific Vulnerability Mapping for Water Security in a Shale Gas Context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, D. M.; Holding, S.; McKoen, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast British Columbia (NEBC) is estimated to hold large reserves of unconventional natural gas and has experienced rapid growth in shale gas development activities over recent decades. Shale gas development has the potential to impact the quality and quantity of surface and ground water. Robust policies and sound water management are required to protect water security in relation to the water-energy nexus surrounding shale gas development. In this study, hazard-specific vulnerability mapping was conducted across NEBC to identify areas most vulnerable to water quality and quantity deterioration due to shale gas development. Vulnerability represents the combination of a specific hazard threat and the susceptibility of the water system to that threat. Hazard threats (i.e. potential contamination sources and water abstraction) were mapped spatially across the region. The shallow aquifer susceptibility to contamination was characterised using the DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability approach, while the aquifer susceptibility to abstraction was mapped according to aquifer productivity. Surface water susceptibility to contamination was characterised on a watershed basis to describe the propensity for overland flow (i.e. contaminant transport), while watershed discharge estimates were used to assess surface water susceptibility to water abstractions. The spatial distribution of hazard threats and susceptibility were combined to form hazard-specific vulnerability maps for groundwater quality, groundwater quantity, surface water quality and surface water quantity. The vulnerability maps identify priority areas for further research, monitoring and policy development. Priority areas regarding water quality occur where hazard threat (contamination potential) coincide with high aquifer susceptibility or high overland flow potential. Priority areas regarding water quantity occur where demand is estimated to represent a significant proportion of estimated supply. The identification

  15. Spatial mapping and quantification of developmental branching morphogenesis.

    PubMed

    Short, Kieran; Hodson, Mark; Smyth, Ian

    2013-01-15

    Branching morphogenesis is a fundamental developmental mechanism that shapes the formation of many organs. The complex three-dimensional shapes derived by this process reflect equally complex genetic interactions between branching epithelia and their surrounding mesenchyme. Despite the importance of this process to normal adult organ function, analysis of branching has been stymied by the absence of a bespoke method to quantify accurately the complex spatial datasets that describe it. As a consequence, although many developmentally important genes are proposed to influence branching morphogenesis, we have no way of objectively assessing their individual contributions to this process. We report the development of a method for accurately quantifying many aspects of branching morphogenesis and we demonstrate its application to the study of organ development. As proof of principle we have employed this approach to analyse the developing mouse lung and kidney, describing the spatial characteristics of the branching ureteric bud and pulmonary epithelia. To demonstrate further its capacity to profile unrecognised genetic contributions to organ development, we examine Tgfb2 mutant kidneys, identifying elements of both developmental delay and specific spatial dysmorphology caused by haplo-insufficiency for this gene. This technical advance provides a crucial resource that will enable rigorous characterisation of the genetic and environmental factors that regulate this essential and evolutionarily conserved developmental mechanism.

  16. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  17. Vulnerability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  18. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  19. Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years.

    PubMed

    Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

    2016-10-26

    The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

  20. Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years

    PubMed Central

    Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

    2016-01-01

    The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections. PMID:27782160

  1. Modelling homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    PubMed

    Bizimana, Jean Pierre; Kienberger, Stefan; Hagenlocher, Michael; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel

    2016-03-31

    Despite the decline in malaria incidence due to intense interventions, potentials for malaria transmission persist in Rwanda. To eradicate malaria in Rwanda, strategies need to expand beyond approaches that focus solely on malaria epidemiology and also consider the socioeconomic, demographic and biological/disease-related factors that determine the vulnerability of potentially exposed populations. This paper analyses current levels of social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda by integrating a set of weighted vulnerability indicators. The paper uses regionalisation techniques as a spatially explicit approach for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria. This overcomes the limitations of administrative boundaries for modelling the trans-boundary social vulnerability to malaria. The utilised approach revealed high levels of social vulnerability to malaria in the highland areas of Rwanda, as well as in remote areas where populations are more susceptible. Susceptibility may be due to the populations' lacking the capacity to anticipate mosquito bites, or lacking resilience to cope with or recover from malaria infection. By highlighting the most influential indicators of social vulnerability to malaria, the applied approach indicates which vulnerability domains need to be addressed, and where appropriate interventions are most required. Interventions to improve the socioeconomic development in highly vulnerable areas could prove highly effective, and provide sustainable outcomes against malaria in Rwanda. This would ultimately increase the resilience of the population and their capacity to better anticipate, cope with, and recover from possible infection.

  2. Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

    2017-12-01

    Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

  3. Spatially Resolved MR-Compatible Doppler Ultrasound: Proof of Concept for Triggering of Diagnostic Quality Cardiovascular MRI for Function and Flow Quantification at 3T.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Lindsey Alexandra; Manasseh, Gibran; Chmielewski, Aneta; Hachulla, Anne-Lise; Speicher, Daniel; Greiser, Andreas; Muller, Hajo; de Perrot, Thomas; Vallee, Jean-Paul; Salomir, Rares

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate the use of a magnetic-resonance (MR)-compatible ultrasound (US) imaging probe using spatially resolved Doppler for diagnostic quality cardiovascular MR imaging (MRI) as an initial step toward hybrid US/MR fetal imaging. A newly developed technology for a dedicated MR-compatible phased array ultrasound-imaging probe acquired pulsed color Doppler carotid images, which were converted in near-real time to a trigger signal for cardiac cine and flow quantification MRI. Ultrasound and MR data acquired simultaneously were interference free. Conventional electrocardiogram (ECG) and the proposed spatially resolved Doppler triggering were compared in 10 healthy volunteers. A synthetic "false-triggered" image was retrospectively processed using metric optimized gating (MOG). Images were scored by expert readers, and sharpness, cardiac function and aortic flow were quantified. Four-dimensional (4-D) flow (two volunteers) showed feasibility of Doppler triggering over a long acquisition time. Imaging modalities were compatible. US probe positioning was stable and comfortable. Image quality scores and quantified sharpness were statistically equal for Doppler- and ECG-triggering (p ). ECG-, Doppler-triggered, and MOG ejection fractions were equivalent (p ), with false-triggered values significantly lower (p < 0.0005). Aortic flow showed no difference between ECG- and Doppler-triggered and MOG (p > 0.05). 4-D flow quantification gave consistent results between ECG and Doppler triggering. We report interference-free pulsed color Doppler ultrasound during MR data acquisition. Cardiovascular MRI of diagnostic quality was successfully obtained with pulsed color Doppler triggering. The hardware platform could further enable advanced free-breathing cardiac imaging. Doppler ultrasound triggering is applicable where ECG is compromised due to pathology or interference at higher magnetic fields, and where direct ECG is impossible, i.e., fetal imaging.

  4. Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

  5. Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

    2014-05-01

    agreement between recorded drought impact and the established DVI classes. Kenya counties most vulnerable to drought are primarily located in the North-East of the country, showing a reasonable agreement with the spatial distribution of impacts of the 2010/2011 drought, despite the drought itself being more widespread.

  6. Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan, E-mail: yungjaanlee@gmail.com

    In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but alsomore » be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This

  7. Genetic k-Means Clustering Approach for Mapping Human Vulnerability to Chemical Hazards in the Industrialized City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Weifang; Zeng, Weihua

    2013-01-01

    Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster. PMID:23787337

  8. Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

    2016-11-15

    Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessing vulnerability to invasion by nonnative plant species at multiple spatial scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stohlgren, T.J.; Chong, G.W.; Schell, L.D.; Rimar, K.A.; Otsuki, Yuka; Lee, M.; Kalkhan, M.A.; Villa, C.A.

    2002-01-01

    Basic information on where nonnative plant species have successfully invaded is lacking. We assessed the vulnerability of 22 vegetation types (25 sets of four plots in nine study areas) to nonnative plant invasions in the north–central United States. In general, habitats with high native species richness were more heavily invaded than species-poor habitats, low-elevation areas were more invaded than high-elevation areas, and riparian zones were more invaded than nearby upland sites. For the 100 1000-m2 plots (across all vegetation types), 50% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by longitude, latitude, native plant species richness, soil total percentage nitrogen, and mean maximum July temperature (n = 100 plots; P < 0.001). At the vegetation-type scale (n = 25 sets of four 1000-m2 plots/type), 64% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by native plant species richness, elevation, and October to June precipitation (P < 0.001). The foliar cover of nonnative species (log) was strongly positively correlated with the nonnative species richness at the plot scale (r = 0.77, P < 0.001) and vegetation-type scale (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). We concluded that, at the vegetation-type and regional scales in the north–central United States, (1) vegetation types rich in native species are often highly vulnerable to invasion by nonnative plant species; (2) where several nonnative species become established, nonnative species cover can substantially increase; (3) the attributes that maintain high native plant species richness (high light, water, nitrogen, and temperatures) also help maintain nonnative plant species richness; and (4) more care must be taken to preserve native species diversity in highly vulnerable habitats.

  10. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  11. Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

    PubMed

    Rohat, Guillaume

    2018-03-19

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely

  12. [The social vulnerability index regarding Medellín's disabled population].

    PubMed

    Cardona-Arango, Doris; Agudelo-Martínez, Alejandra; Restrepo-Molina, Lucas; Segura-Cardona, Angela M

    2014-01-01

    Constructing a social vulnerability index (SVI) for Medellín's disabled population during 2008 aimed at determining areas which were reducing opportunities for this population to use their tangible and intangible assets, thus impairing their quality of life. This descriptive cross-sectional study drew on a source of secondary information regarding people having some kind of limitation recorded in the Quality of Life Survey, 2008. Physical, human and social variables were grouped when constructing the SVI; the models were run in principal component analysis to determine their degree of vulnerability, defined by the number of negative factors identified (high category=4 or 5, medium=2 or 3 and low=1 or none). Such classification led to identifying non-causal relationships with demographic variables through Mann-Whitney, Chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests (5.0 % statistical significance level); multinomial logistic regression was used for calculating adjusted measures for epidemiological measurement, such as opportunity ratios and confidence intervals. A degree of medium vulnerability predominated in disabled people living in Medellín (60.3 %) followed by low vulnerability (28.7 %) and high vulnerability populations (11.0 %). The proposed ISV classified the city's communes according to high, medium or low vulnerability, supported by the use of statistical and spatial location techniques.

  13. Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Lue, Evan; Wilson, John P

    2017-04-01

    Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster-awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five-year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially-explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  14. Identification and ranking of environmental threats with ecosystem vulnerability distributions.

    PubMed

    Zijp, Michiel C; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Schipper, Aafke M; Mulder, Christian; Posthuma, Leo

    2017-08-24

    Responses of ecosystems to human-induced stress vary in space and time, because both stressors and ecosystem vulnerabilities vary in space and time. Presently, ecosystem impact assessments mainly take into account variation in stressors, without considering variation in ecosystem vulnerability. We developed a method to address ecosystem vulnerability variation by quantifying ecosystem vulnerability distributions (EVDs) based on monitoring data of local species compositions and environmental conditions. The method incorporates spatial variation of both abiotic and biotic variables to quantify variation in responses among species and ecosystems. We show that EVDs can be derived based on a selection of locations, existing monitoring data and a selected impact boundary, and can be used in stressor identification and ranking for a region. A case study on Ohio's freshwater ecosystems, with freshwater fish as target species group, showed that physical habitat impairment and nutrient loads ranked highest as current stressors, with species losses higher than 5% for at least 6% of the locations. EVDs complement existing approaches of stressor assessment and management, which typically account only for variability in stressors, by accounting for variation in the vulnerability of the responding ecosystems.

  15. Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elçi, Alper

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods.

  18. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  19. Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

    PubMed

    Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

    2018-04-15

    China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Vulnerability of ground water to atrazine leaching in Kent County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Luukkonen, C.L.

    1997-01-01

    in leachate at the water table that exceeded the USEPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) maximum contaminant level of 3 μg/L.Uncertainty analyses were used to assess effects of parameter uncertainty and spatial interpolation error on the variability of the estimated fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that parameter uncertainty is associated with a standard error of 0.0875 in the computed fractions (in the rm metric). Results of kriging analysis indicate that errors in spatial interpolation are associated with a standard error of 0.146 (in the rm metric). Thus, uncertainty in fractions remaining is primarily associated with spatial interpolation error, which can be reduced by increasing the density of points where the leaching model is applied.A sensitivity analysis indicated which of 13 hydrologic, lithologic, and pesticide characteristics were influential in determining fractions of atrazine remaining at the water table. Results indicate that fractions remaining are most sensitive to the unit changes in pesticide half life and in organic-carbon content in soils and unweathered rocks, and least sensitive to infiltration rates.The leaching model applied in this report provides an estimate of the vulnerability of the near-surface aquifer in Kent County to contamination by atrazine. The vulnerability estimate is related to water-quality criteria developed by the USEPA to help assess potential risks from atrazine to the near-surface aquifer. However, atrazine accounts for only 28 percent of the herbicide use in the county; additional potential for contamination exists from other pesticides and pesticide metabolites. Therefore, additional work is needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the relative risks associated with specific pesticides. The modeling approach described in this report provides a technique for estimating relative vulnerabilities to specific pesticides and for helping to assess

  1. Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

    PubMed

    Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

    2015-01-07

    indicates which indicators need to be addressed and in which districts. The results from this study are salient for public health policy- and decision makers in malaria control in Rwanda and timely support the national integrated malaria initiative. Future research development should focus on spatial explicit vulnerability assessment by combining environmental and social drivers to achieve an integrated and complete assessment of vulnerability to malaria.

  2. Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

    2017-05-01

    Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

  3. Development of structural vulnerability curve associated with high magnitude torrent occurrences in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Bründl, Michael; Keiler, Margreth

    2017-04-01

    In mountain regions, high economic losses have increased significantly in the past decades due to severe hazard processes, in spite of notable investments in hazard management. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to high magnitude torrent events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. While vulnerability curves have been developed for different countries, the presented work contributes new data from Swiss-based case studies that address a known gap associated with the consequences of high magnitude events. Data for this stage of the investigation communicates the degree of loss associated with affected structures and has been provided by local authorities dealing with natural hazards (e.g. Amt für Wald des Kantons Bern (KAWA) and cantonal insurance providers). Information used for the empirical quantification of vulnerability to torrent processes is derived from detailed post-event documentation and the loss database and verified with field visits. Building the initial database supports data sharing and the systematic inclusion of additional case studies as they become available. The collection of this new data is fundamental to the development of a local vulnerability curve based on observed sediment deposition heights, a proxy for describing hazard intensity. The result will then be compared to curves derived from Austrian and Italian datasets.

  4. REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH CLIENT PARTNERSHIPS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program is an applied research program t,1at is focusing on using spatial information and model results to support environmental decision-making at regional- down to local-scales. Re VA has developed analysis and assessment methods to...

  5. Topological Vulnerability Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jajodia, Sushil; Noel, Steven

    Traditionally, network administrators rely on labor-intensive processes for tracking network configurations and vulnerabilities. This requires a great deal of expertise, and is error prone because of the complexity of networks and associated security data. The interdependencies of network vulnerabilities make traditional point-wise vulnerability analysis inadequate. We describe a Topological Vulnerability Analysis (TVA) approach that analyzes vulnerability dependencies and shows all possible attack paths into a network. From models of the network vulnerabilities and potential attacker exploits, we compute attack graphs that convey the impact of individual and combined vulnerabilities on overall security. TVA finds potential paths of vulnerability through a network, showing exactly how attackers may penetrate a network. From this, we identify key vulnerabilities and provide strategies for protection of critical network assets.

  6. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

    2014-02-01

    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

  7. Focusing Conservation Efforts on Ecosystem Service Supply May Increase Vulnerability of Socio-Ecological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Barral, Paula; Carmona, Alejandra; Nahuelhual, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Growing concern about the loss of ecosystem services (ES) promotes their spatial representation as a key tool for the internalization of the ES framework into land use policies. Paradoxically, mapping approaches meant to inform policy decisions focus on the magnitude and spatial distribution of the biophysical supply of ES, largely ignoring the social mechanisms by which these services influence human wellbeing. If social mechanisms affecting ES demand, enhancing it or reducing it, are taken more into account, then policies are more effective. By developing and applying a new mapping routine to two distinct socio-ecological systems, we show a strong spatial uncoupling between ES supply and socio-ecological vulnerability to the loss of ES, under scenarios of land use and cover change. Public policies based on ES supply might not only fail at detecting priority conservation areas for the wellbeing of human societies, but may also increase their vulnerability by neglecting areas of currently low, but highly valued ES supply. PMID:27167737

  8. Focusing Conservation Efforts on Ecosystem Service Supply May Increase Vulnerability of Socio-Ecological Systems.

    PubMed

    Laterra, Pedro; Barral, Paula; Carmona, Alejandra; Nahuelhual, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Growing concern about the loss of ecosystem services (ES) promotes their spatial representation as a key tool for the internalization of the ES framework into land use policies. Paradoxically, mapping approaches meant to inform policy decisions focus on the magnitude and spatial distribution of the biophysical supply of ES, largely ignoring the social mechanisms by which these services influence human wellbeing. If social mechanisms affecting ES demand, enhancing it or reducing it, are taken more into account, then policies are more effective. By developing and applying a new mapping routine to two distinct socio-ecological systems, we show a strong spatial uncoupling between ES supply and socio-ecological vulnerability to the loss of ES, under scenarios of land use and cover change. Public policies based on ES supply might not only fail at detecting priority conservation areas for the wellbeing of human societies, but may also increase their vulnerability by neglecting areas of currently low, but highly valued ES supply.

  9. Impact of the spatial resolution of satellite remote sensing sensors in the quantification of total suspended sediment concentration: A case study in turbid waters of Northern Western Australia.

    PubMed

    Dorji, Passang; Fearns, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The impact of anthropogenic activities on coastal waters is a cause of concern because such activities add to the total suspended sediment (TSS) budget of the coastal waters, which have negative impacts on the coastal ecosystem. Satellite remote sensing provides a powerful tool in monitoring TSS concentration at high spatiotemporal resolution, but coastal managers should be mindful that the satellite-derived TSS concentrations are dependent on the satellite sensor's radiometric properties, atmospheric correction approaches, the spatial resolution and the limitations of specific TSS algorithms. In this study, we investigated the impact of different spatial resolutions of satellite sensor on the quantification of TSS concentration in coastal waters of northern Western Australia. We quantified the TSS product derived from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Aqua, Landsat-8 Operational Land Image (OLI), and WorldView-2 (WV2) at native spatial resolutions of 250 m, 30 m and 2 m respectively and coarser spatial resolution (resampled up to 5 km) to quantify the impact of spatial resolution on the derived TSS product in different turbidity conditions. The results from the study show that in the waters of high turbidity and high spatial variability, the high spatial resolution WV2 sensor reported TSS concentration as high as 160 mg L-1 while the low spatial resolution MODIS-Aqua reported a maximum TSS concentration of 23.6 mg L-1. Degrading the spatial resolution of each satellite sensor for highly spatially variable turbid waters led to variability in the TSS concentrations of 114.46%, 304.68% and 38.2% for WV2, Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS-Aqua respectively. The implications of this work are particularly relevant in the situation of compliance monitoring where operations may be required to restrict TSS concentrations to a pre-defined limit.

  10. Impact of the spatial resolution of satellite remote sensing sensors in the quantification of total suspended sediment concentration: A case study in turbid waters of Northern Western Australia

    PubMed Central

    Fearns, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The impact of anthropogenic activities on coastal waters is a cause of concern because such activities add to the total suspended sediment (TSS) budget of the coastal waters, which have negative impacts on the coastal ecosystem. Satellite remote sensing provides a powerful tool in monitoring TSS concentration at high spatiotemporal resolution, but coastal managers should be mindful that the satellite-derived TSS concentrations are dependent on the satellite sensor’s radiometric properties, atmospheric correction approaches, the spatial resolution and the limitations of specific TSS algorithms. In this study, we investigated the impact of different spatial resolutions of satellite sensor on the quantification of TSS concentration in coastal waters of northern Western Australia. We quantified the TSS product derived from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Aqua, Landsat-8 Operational Land Image (OLI), and WorldView-2 (WV2) at native spatial resolutions of 250 m, 30 m and 2 m respectively and coarser spatial resolution (resampled up to 5 km) to quantify the impact of spatial resolution on the derived TSS product in different turbidity conditions. The results from the study show that in the waters of high turbidity and high spatial variability, the high spatial resolution WV2 sensor reported TSS concentration as high as 160 mg L-1 while the low spatial resolution MODIS-Aqua reported a maximum TSS concentration of 23.6 mg L-1. Degrading the spatial resolution of each satellite sensor for highly spatially variable turbid waters led to variability in the TSS concentrations of 114.46%, 304.68% and 38.2% for WV2, Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS-Aqua respectively. The implications of this work are particularly relevant in the situation of compliance monitoring where operations may be required to restrict TSS concentrations to a pre-defined limit. PMID:28380059

  11. Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

    2018-07-15

    The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method.

    PubMed

    Elçi, Alper

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China.

    PubMed

    Bai, Li; Woodward, Alistair; Cirendunzhu; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-12

    Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research. According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA). For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another. We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.

  14. A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed

  15. Mapping Vulnerability to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1900-2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maynard-Ford, Miriam C.; Phillips, Emily C.; Chirico, Peter G.

    2008-01-01

    The vulnerability of a population and its infrastructure to disastrous events is a factor of both the probability of a hazardous event occurring and the community's ability to cope with the resulting impacts. Therefore, the ability to accurately identify vulnerable populations and places in order to prepare for future hazards is of critical importance for disaster mitigation programs. This project created maps of higher spatial resolution of vulnerability to disaster in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1900 to 2007 by mapping disaster data by first-level administrative boundaries with the objective of identifying geographic trends in regional occurrences of disasters and vulnerable populations. The method of mapping by administrative level is an improvement on displaying and analyzing disasters at the country level and shows the relative intensity of vulnerability within and between countries in the region. Disaster mapping at the country level produces only a basic view of which countries experience various types of natural disasters. Through disaggregation, the data show which geographic areas of these countries, including populated areas, are historically most susceptible to different hazard types.

  16. A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

    2017-01-01

    Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

  17. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  18. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  19. Patterns of Freshwater Species Richness, Endemism, and Vulnerability in California

    PubMed Central

    Furnish, Joseph; Gardali, Thomas; Grantham, Ted; Katz, Jacob V. E.; Kupferberg, Sarah; McIntyre, Patrick; Moyle, Peter B.; Ode, Peter R.; Peek, Ryan; Quiñones, Rebecca M.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Santos, Nick; Schoenig, Steve; Serpa, Larry; Shedd, Jackson D.; Slusark, Joe; Viers, Joshua H.; Wright, Amber; Morrison, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    The ranges and abundances of species that depend on freshwater habitats are declining worldwide. Efforts to counteract those trends are often hampered by a lack of information about species distribution and conservation status and are often strongly biased toward a few well-studied groups. We identified the 3,906 vascular plants, macroinvertebrates, and vertebrates native to California, USA, that depend on fresh water for at least one stage of their life history. We evaluated the conservation status for these taxa using existing government and non-governmental organization assessments (e.g., endangered species act, NatureServe), created a spatial database of locality observations or distribution information from ~400 data sources, and mapped patterns of richness, endemism, and vulnerability. Although nearly half of all taxa with conservation status (n = 1,939) are vulnerable to extinction, only 114 (6%) of those vulnerable taxa have a legal mandate for protection in the form of formal inclusion on a state or federal endangered species list. Endemic taxa are at greater risk than non-endemics, with 90% of the 927 endemic taxa vulnerable to extinction. Records with spatial data were available for a total of 2,276 species (61%). The patterns of species richness differ depending on the taxonomic group analyzed, but are similar across taxonomic level. No particular taxonomic group represents an umbrella for all species, but hotspots of high richness for listed species cover 40% of the hotspots for all other species and 58% of the hotspots for vulnerable freshwater species. By mapping freshwater species hotspots we show locations that represent the top priority for conservation action in the state. This study identifies opportunities to fill gaps in the evaluation of conservation status for freshwater taxa in California, to address the lack of occurrence information for nearly 40% of freshwater taxa and nearly 40% of watersheds in the state, and to implement adequate

  20. Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts

  1. Study the effect of reservoir spatial heterogeneity on CO2 sequestration under an uncertainty quantification (UQ) software framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Y.; Hou, J.; Engel, D.; Lin, G.; Yin, J.; Han, B.; Fang, Z.; Fountoulakis, V.

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we introduce an uncertainty quantification (UQ) software framework for carbon sequestration, with the focus of studying being the effect of spatial heterogeneity of reservoir properties on CO2 migration. We use a sequential Gaussian method (SGSIM) to generate realizations of permeability fields with various spatial statistical attributes. To deal with the computational difficulties, we integrate the following ideas/approaches: 1) firstly, we use three different sampling approaches (probabilistic collocation, quasi-Monte Carlo, and adaptive sampling approaches) to reduce the required forward calculations while trying to explore the parameter space and quantify the input uncertainty; 2) secondly, we use eSTOMP as the forward modeling simulator. eSTOMP is implemented using the Global Arrays toolkit (GA) that is based on one-sided inter-processor communication and supports a shared memory programming style on distributed memory platforms. It provides highly-scalable performance. It uses a data model to partition most of the large scale data structures into a relatively small number of distinct classes. The lower level simulator infrastructure (e.g. meshing support, associated data structures, and data mapping to processors) is separated from the higher level physics and chemistry algorithmic routines using a grid component interface; and 3) besides the faster model and more efficient algorithms to speed up the forward calculation, we built an adaptive system infrastructure to select the best possible data transfer mechanisms, to optimally allocate system resources to improve performance, and to integrate software packages and data for composing carbon sequestration simulation, computation, analysis, estimation and visualization. We will demonstrate the framework with a given CO2 injection scenario in a heterogeneous sandstone reservoir.

  2. Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

    2016-12-01

    Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone

  3. MRI-based methods for quantification of the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen

    PubMed Central

    Rodgers, Zachary B; Detre, John A

    2016-01-01

    The brain depends almost entirely on oxidative metabolism to meet its significant energy requirements. As such, the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) represents a key measure of brain function. Quantification of CMRO2 has helped elucidate brain functional physiology and holds potential as a clinical tool for evaluating neurological disorders including stroke, brain tumors, Alzheimer’s disease, and obstructive sleep apnea. In recent years, a variety of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based CMRO2 quantification methods have emerged. Unlike positron emission tomography – the current “gold standard” for measurement and mapping of CMRO2 – MRI is non-invasive, relatively inexpensive, and ubiquitously available in modern medical centers. All MRI-based CMRO2 methods are based on modeling the effect of paramagnetic deoxyhemoglobin on the magnetic resonance signal. The various methods can be classified in terms of the MRI contrast mechanism used to quantify CMRO2: T2*, T2′, T2, or magnetic susceptibility. This review article provides an overview of MRI-based CMRO2 quantification techniques. After a brief historical discussion motivating the need for improved CMRO2 methodology, current state-of-the-art MRI-based methods are critically appraised in terms of their respective tradeoffs between spatial resolution, temporal resolution, and robustness, all of critical importance given the spatially heterogeneous and temporally dynamic nature of brain energy requirements. PMID:27089912

  4. Discrimination performance in aging is vulnerable to interference and dissociable from spatial memory

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Sarah A.; Sacks, Patricia K.; Turner, Sean M.; Gaynor, Leslie S.; Ormerod, Brandi K.; Maurer, Andrew P.; Bizon, Jennifer L.

    2016-01-01

    Hippocampal-dependent episodic memory and stimulus discrimination abilities are both compromised in the elderly. The reduced capacity to discriminate between similar stimuli likely contributes to multiple aspects of age-related cognitive impairment; however, the association of these behaviors within individuals has never been examined in an animal model. In the present study, young and aged F344×BN F1 hybrid rats were cross-characterized on the Morris water maze test of spatial memory and a dentate gyrus-dependent match-to-position test of spatial discrimination ability. Aged rats showed overall impairments relative to young in spatial learning and memory on the water maze task. Although young and aged learned to apply a match-to-position response strategy in performing easy spatial discriminations within a similar number of trials, a majority of aged rats were impaired relative to young in performing difficult spatial discriminations on subsequent tests. Moreover, all aged rats were susceptible to cumulative interference during spatial discrimination tests, such that error rate increased on later trials of test sessions. These data suggest that when faced with difficult discriminations, the aged rats were less able to distinguish current goal locations from those of previous trials. Increasing acetylcholine levels with donepezil did not improve aged rats’ abilities to accurately perform difficult spatial discriminations or reduce their susceptibility to interference. Interestingly, better spatial memory abilities were not significantly associated with higher performance on difficult spatial discriminations. This observation, along with the finding that aged rats made more errors under conditions in which interference was high, suggests that match-to-position spatial discrimination performance may rely on extra-hippocampal structures such as the prefrontal cortex, in addition to the dentate gyrus. PMID:27317194

  5. Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

    2010-05-01

    The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

  6. On the Scaling Behavior of Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Indices in Agricultural Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk indices such as reliability-resilience-vulnerability (R-R-V) have been proposed to assess watershed health. In this study, the spatial scaling behavior of R-R-V indices has been explored for five agricultural watersheds in the midwestern United States. The study was conduc...

  7. Mapping Extreme Heat Vulnerability and Health Outcomes to inform the District of Columbia's Climate Adaptation Plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Declet-Barreto, J.; Wilhelmi, O.; Goggans, A.

    2016-12-01

    In this collaborative engagement, scientists are partnering with the District of Columbia (DC) to develop an extreme heat vulnerability assessment. To do so, we map socio-demographic and built environment indicators of extreme heat vulnerability in Census Tracts in DC neighborhoods. In order to provide information useful for DC public health and urban planning practitioners, we aggregate the indicators into an index of extreme heat vulnerability. We compare the index against heat-related call data from DC's 911 system to better understand the socio-spatial distribution of extreme heat-related health outcomes. Our assessment can help inform the District's Climate Adaptation Plan as well as increase public engagement in reducing vulnerability to extreme heat.

  8. Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators

  9. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

  10. Direct qPCR quantification using the Quantifiler(®) Trio DNA quantification kit.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jason Yingjie

    2014-11-01

    The effectiveness of a direct quantification assay is essential to the adoption of the combined direct quantification/direct STR workflow. In this paper, the feasibility of using the Quantifiler(®) Trio DNA quantification kit for the direct quantification of forensic casework samples was investigated. Both low-level touch DNA samples and blood samples were collected on PE swabs and quantified directly. The increased sensitivity of the Quantifiler(®) Trio kit enabled the detection of less than 10pg of DNA in unprocessed touch samples and also minimizes the stochastic effect experienced by different targets in the same sample. The DNA quantity information obtained from a direct quantification assay using the Quantifiler(®) Trio kit can also be used to accurately estimate the optimal input DNA quantity for a direct STR amplification reaction. The correlation between the direct quantification results (Quantifiler(®) Trio kit) and the direct STR results (GlobalFiler™ PCR amplification kit(*)) for low-level touch DNA samples indicates that direct quantification using the Quantifiler(®) Trio DNA quantification kit is more reliable than the Quantifiler(®) Duo DNA quantification kit for predicting the STR results of unprocessed touch DNA samples containing less than 10pg of DNA. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. What actually confers adaptive capacity? Insights from agro-climatic vulnerability of Australian wheat.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Brett A; Huai, Jianjun; Connor, Jeff; Gao, Lei; King, Darran; Kandulu, John; Zhao, Gang

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital--social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia's wheat-sheep zone from 1991-2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability.

  13. What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat

    PubMed Central

    Bryan, Brett A.; Huai, Jianjun; Connor, Jeff; Gao, Lei; King, Darran; Kandulu, John; Zhao, Gang

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital—social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia’s wheat-sheep zone from 1991–2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability. PMID:25668192

  14. Neighborhood Effects on Heat Deaths: Social and Environmental Predictors of Vulnerability in Maricopa County, Arizona

    PubMed Central

    Declet-Barreto, Juan H.; Stefanov, William L.; Petitti, Diana B.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Most heat-related deaths occur in cities, and future trends in global climate change and urbanization may amplify this trend. Understanding how neighborhoods affect heat mortality fills an important gap between studies of individual susceptibility to heat and broadly comparative studies of temperature–mortality relationships in cities. Objectives: We estimated neighborhood effects of population characteristics and built and natural environments on deaths due to heat exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona (2000–2008). Methods: We used 2000 U.S. Census data and remotely sensed vegetation and land surface temperature to construct indicators of neighborhood vulnerability and a geographic information system to map vulnerability and residential addresses of persons who died from heat exposure in 2,081 census block groups. Binary logistic regression and spatial analysis were used to associate deaths with neighborhoods. Results: Neighborhood scores on three factors—socioeconomic vulnerability, elderly/isolation, and unvegetated area—varied widely throughout the study area. The preferred model (based on fit and parsimony) for predicting the odds of one or more deaths from heat exposure within a census block group included the first two factors and surface temperature in residential neighborhoods, holding population size constant. Spatial analysis identified clusters of neighborhoods with the highest heat vulnerability scores. A large proportion of deaths occurred among people, including homeless persons, who lived in the inner cores of the largest cities and along an industrial corridor. Conclusions: Place-based indicators of vulnerability complement analyses of person-level heat risk factors. Surface temperature might be used in Maricopa County to identify the most heat-vulnerable neighborhoods, but more attention to the socioecological complexities of climate adaptation is needed. PMID:23164621

  15. Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in

  16. The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Chao; Lei, Jun; Jin, Fengjun

    2013-12-01

    Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco-environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constraining factors.

  17. A place-based model for assessing the coherence of the flash floods and socio-economic vulnerability across the Contiguous United States (CONUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khajehei, S.; Moradkhani, H.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding socio-economic characteristics involving natural hazards potential, vulnerability, and resilience is necessary to address the damages to economy and loss of life from extreme natural hazards. The vulnerability to flash floods is dependent on both biophysical and socio-economic factors. Although the biophysical characteristics (e.g. climate, vegetation, and land use) are informative and useful for predicting spatial and temporal extent of flash floods, they have minimal bearing on predicting when and where flash floods are likely to influence people or damage valuable assets and resources. The socio-economic factors determine spatial and temporal scales of the regions affected by flash floods. In this study, we quantify the socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). A socio-economic vulnerability index was developed, employing Bayesian principal components for each state in the CONUS. For this purpose, extensive sets of social and economic variables from US Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis were used. We developed maps presenting the coincidence of socio-economic vulnerability and the flash floods records. This product can help inform flash flood prevention, mitigation and recovery planning, as well as reducing the flash flood hazards affecting vulnerable places and population.

  18. Geoenvironments from the vicinity of Arctowski Station, Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctica: vulnerability and valuation assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaefer, Carlos Ernesto G.R.; Santana, Rogério Mercandelle; Simas, Felipe Nogueira Bello; Francelino, Márcio R.; Filho, Elpídio Inácio Fernandes; Albuquerque, Miriam Abreu; Calijuri, Maria Lúcia

    2007-01-01

    The use of a geographic information system (GIS) allows the mapping and quantification of biotic and physical features of importance to the environmental planning of Antarctic areas. In this paper we examined the main aspects of the geoenvironments of Arctowski Station vicinity (Admiralty bay, Maritime Antartica), by means of a photointerpretation of an orthomosaic at 1:6000 scale, produced by non-conventional aerial photographs obtained by the Brazilian Cryosols project. We carried out a preliminary environmental valuation and vulnerability assessment of the area. Hence, geoenvironments were classified and ranked according with their biological valuation and vulnerability (fragility), mapping 20 units covering approximately 150 ha. The most fragile geoenvironmental units were former and present penguin rookeries with different vegetation covers, all very prone to degradation by over-trampling and human perturbations. The relationships between each geoenvironment were also explored, emphasizing the ecological aspects and their valuation. In quantitative terms, the most vulnerable and fragile units (classes 4 and 5) occupy nearly 22 % of the total area, being highly concentrated near the coastal areas. There, ornithogenic input is an important factor favoring the vegetation development.

  19. Spatially Resolved Quantification of the Surface Reactivity of Solid Catalysts.

    PubMed

    Huang, Bing; Xiao, Li; Lu, Juntao; Zhuang, Lin

    2016-05-17

    A new property is reported that accurately quantifies and spatially describes the chemical reactivity of solid surfaces. The core idea is to create a reactivity weight function peaking at the Fermi level, thereby determining a weighted summation of the density of states of a solid surface. When such a weight function is defined as the derivative of the Fermi-Dirac distribution function at a certain non-zero temperature, the resulting property is the finite-temperature chemical softness, termed Fermi softness (SF ), which turns out to be an accurate descriptor of the surface reactivity. The spatial image of SF maps the reactive domain of a heterogeneous surface and even portrays morphological details of the reactive sites. SF analyses reveal that the reactive zones on a Pt3 Y(111) surface are the platinum sites rather than the seemingly active yttrium sites, and the reactivity of the S-dimer edge of MoS2 is spatially anisotropic. Our finding is of fundamental and technological significance to heterogeneous catalysis and industrial processes demanding rational design of solid catalysts. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. A relative vulnerability estimation of flood disaster using data envelopment analysis in the Dongting Lake region of Hunan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, C.-H.; Li, N.; Wu, L.-C.; Hu, A.-J.

    2013-07-01

    The vulnerability to flood disaster is addressed by a number of studies. It is of great importance to analyze the vulnerability of different regions and various periods to enable the government to make policies for distributing relief funds and help the regions to improve their capabilities against disasters, yet a recognized paradigm for such studies seems missing. Vulnerability is defined and evaluated through either physical or economic-ecological perspectives depending on the field of the researcher concerned. The vulnerability, however, is the core of both systems as it entails systematic descriptions of flood severities or disaster management units. The research mentioned often has a development perspective, and in this article we decompose the overall flood system into several factors: disaster driver, disaster environment, disaster bearer, and disaster intensity, and take the interaction mechanism among all factors as an indispensable function. The conditions of flood disaster components are demonstrated with disaster driver risk level, disaster environment stability level and disaster bearer sensitivity, respectively. The flood system vulnerability is expressed as vulnerability = f(risk, stability, sensitivity). Based on the theory, data envelopment analysis method (DEA) is used to detail the relative vulnerability's spatiotemporal variation of a flood disaster system and its components in the Dongting Lake region. The study finds that although a flood disaster system's relative vulnerability is closely associated with its components' conditions, the flood system and its components have a different vulnerability level. The overall vulnerability is not the aggregation of its components' vulnerability. On a spatial scale, zones central and adjacent to Dongting Lake and/or river zones are characterized with very high vulnerability. Zones with low and very low vulnerability are mainly distributed in the periphery of the Dongting Lake region. On a temporal

  1. Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.

    PubMed

    Esterhuyse, Surina; Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article.

  2. Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction

    PubMed Central

    Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A. Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article. PMID:29291094

  3. Using generalized additive mixed models to assess spatial, temporal, and hydrologic controls on bacteria and nitrate in a vulnerable agricultural aquifer.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Andrea F P; Cey, Edwin E

    2015-11-01

    The Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer (ASA) has a history of nitrate contamination from agricultural land use and manure application to soils, yet little is known about its microbial groundwater quality. The goal of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of pathogen indicators (Escherichia coli [E. coli] and total coliform [TC]) and nitrate in groundwater, and their potential relation to hydrologic drivers. Sampling of 46 wells over an 11-month period confirmed elevated nitrate concentrations, with more than 50% of samples exceeding 10 mg-N/L. E. coli detections in groundwater were infrequent (4 of 385 total samples) and attributed mainly to surface water-groundwater connections along Fishtrap Creek, which tested positive for E. coli in every sampling event. TC was detected frequently in groundwater (70% of samples) across the ASA. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) yielded valuable insights into relationships between TC or nitrate and a range of spatial, temporal, and hydrologic explanatory variables. Increased TC values over the wetter fall and winter period were most strongly related to groundwater temperatures and levels, while precipitation and well location were weaker (but still significant) predictors. In contrast, the moderate temporal variability in nitrate concentrations was not significantly related to hydrologic forcings. TC was relatively widespread across the ASA and spatial patterns could not be attributed solely to surface water connectivity. Varying nitrate concentrations across the ASA were significantly related to both well location and depth, likely due to spatially variable nitrogen loading and localized geochemical attenuation (i.e., denitrification). Vulnerability of the ASA to bacteria was clearly linked to hydrologic conditions, and was distinct from nitrate, such that a groundwater management strategy specifically for bacterial contaminants is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Mapping Regional Drought Vulnerability: a Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karamouz, M.; Zeynolabedin, A.; Olyaei, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is among the natural disaster that causes damages and affects many people's life in many part of the world including in Iran. Recently, some factors such as climate variability and the impact of climate change have influenced drought frequency and intensity in many parts of the world. Drought can be divided into four categories of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and social-economic. In meteorological the important feature is lack of rainfall. In hydrological drought river flows and dam storage are considered. Lack of soil moisture is the key factor in agricultural droughts while in social-economic type of drought the relation between supply and demand and social-economic damages due to water deficiency is studied. While the first three types relates to the lack of some hydrological characteristics, social-economic type of drought is actually the consequence of other types expressed in monetary values. Many indices are used in assessing drought; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. Therefore knowing the types of drought can provide a better understanding of shortages and their characteristics. Drought vulnerability is a concept which shows the likelihood of damages from hazard in a particular place by focusing on the system status prior to the disaster. Drought vulnerability has been viewed as a potential for losses in the region due to water deficiency at the time of drought. In this study the application of vulnerability concept in drought management in East Azarbaijan province in Iran is investigated by providing vulnerability maps which demonstrates spatial characteristics of drought vulnerability. In the first step, certain governing parameters in drought analysis such as precipitation, temperature, land use, topography, solar radiation and ground water elevation have been investigated in the region. They are described in details and calculated in suitable time series. Vulnerabilities

  5. Vulnerabilities of ecosystems across U.S. National Parks to biome shifts, wildfire changes, and invasive species due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, P.; Eigenbrod, F.; Early, R.; Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Williams, J. W.

    2016-12-01

    U.S. national parks conserve globally unique biodiversity. Yet, historical impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities threaten species and ecosystems across this system of protected areas. Spatial analyses of historical climate and downscaled future climate projections show climate trends across the system. Spatial analyses of vegetation and wildfire (using a dynamic global vegetation model), habitat fragmentation (using remote sensing-derived land cover), and invasive species introduction and establishment show patterns of future vulnerability across the 50 U.S. states and 412 U.S. national parks. Results reveal high historical and projected temperature increases and precipitation changes, projected increases of wildfire across western U.S. national parks, high vulnerability to biome shifts and habitat fragmentation of up to one-third of National Park System area, and high vulnerability to invasive species of one-ninth of National Park System area. Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, desert Southwest, and Laurentian Great Lakes are highly vulnerable to upslope and poleward shifts of the North America sequence of biomes: temperate shrubland - temperate broadleaf forest - temperate mixed forest - temperate conifer forest - subalpine and boreal forest - alpine and tundra. These areas include Grand Canyon, Mount Rainier, and Yosemite National Parks. The southwestern U.S., including Grand Canyon and Sequoia National Parks, is vulnerable to increases in wildfire. The eastern and midwestern U.S., including Great Smokey Mountains and Voyageurs National Parks, are highly vulnerable to invasive species. These results identify vulnerable areas and potential refugia to help prioritize areas for future natural resource management actions and biodiversity conservation in U.S. national parks.

  6. Segmentation and quantification of subcellular structures in fluorescence microscopy images using Squassh.

    PubMed

    Rizk, Aurélien; Paul, Grégory; Incardona, Pietro; Bugarski, Milica; Mansouri, Maysam; Niemann, Axel; Ziegler, Urs; Berger, Philipp; Sbalzarini, Ivo F

    2014-03-01

    Detection and quantification of fluorescently labeled molecules in subcellular compartments is a key step in the analysis of many cell biological processes. Pixel-wise colocalization analyses, however, are not always suitable, because they do not provide object-specific information, and they are vulnerable to noise and background fluorescence. Here we present a versatile protocol for a method named 'Squassh' (segmentation and quantification of subcellular shapes), which is used for detecting, delineating and quantifying subcellular structures in fluorescence microscopy images. The workflow is implemented in freely available, user-friendly software. It works on both 2D and 3D images, accounts for the microscope optics and for uneven image background, computes cell masks and provides subpixel accuracy. The Squassh software enables both colocalization and shape analyses. The protocol can be applied in batch, on desktop computers or computer clusters, and it usually requires <1 min and <5 min for 2D and 3D images, respectively. Basic computer-user skills and some experience with fluorescence microscopy are recommended to successfully use the protocol.

  7. Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion Processes: Study Cases from Different Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anfuso, Giorgio; Martinez Del Pozo, Jose Angel; Rangel-Buitrago, Nelson

    2010-05-01

    When natural processes affect or threaten human activities or infrastructures they become a natural hazard. In order to prevent the natural hazards impact and the associated economic and human losses, coastal managers need to know the intrinsic vulnerability of the littoral, using information on the physical and ecological coastal features, human occupation and present and future shoreline trends. The prediction of future coastline positions can be based on the study of coastal changes which have occurred over recent decades. Vertical aerial photographs, satellite imagery and maps are very useful data sources for the reconstruction of coast line changes at long (>60 years) and medium (between 60 and 10 years) temporal and spatial scales. Vulnerability maps have been obtained for several coastal sectors around the world through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), computer-assisted multivariate analysis and numerical models. In the USA, "Flood Insurance Rate Maps" have been created by the government and "Coastal Zone Hazard Maps" have been prepared for coastal stretches affected by hurricane Hugo. In Spain, the vulnerability of the Ebro and an Andalusia coastal sector were investigated over different time scales. McLaughlin et al., (2002) developed a GIS based coastal vulnerability index for the Northern Ireland littoral that took into account socio-economic activities and coastal resistance to erosion and energetic characteristics. Lizárraga et al., (2001) combined beach reduction at Rosario (Mexico) with the probability of damage to landward structures, obtaining a vulnerability matrix. In this work several coastal vulnerability maps have also been created by comparing data on coastal erosion/accretion and land use along different coastal sectors in Italy, Morocco and Colombia. Keywords: Hazard, Vulnerability, Coastal Erosion, Italy, Morocco, Colombia.

  8. Software Vulnerability Taxonomy Consolidation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Polepeddi, Sriram S.

    2004-12-07

    In today's environment, computers and networks are increasing exposed to a number of software vulnerabilities. Information about these vulnerabilities is collected and disseminated via various large publicly available databases such as BugTraq, OSVDB and ICAT. Each of these databases, individually, do not cover all aspects of a vulnerability and lack a standard format among them, making it difficult for end-users to easily compare various vulnerabilities. A central database of vulnerabilities has not been available until today for a number of reasons, such as the non-uniform methods by which current vulnerability database providers receive information, disagreement over which features of amore » particular vulnerability are important and how best to present them, and the non-utility of the information presented in many databases. The goal of this software vulnerability taxonomy consolidation project is to address the need for a universally accepted vulnerability taxonomy that classifies vulnerabilities in an unambiguous manner. A consolidated vulnerability database (CVDB) was implemented that coalesces and organizes vulnerability data from disparate data sources. Based on the work done in this paper, there is strong evidence that a consolidated taxonomy encompassing and organizing all relevant data can be achieved. However, three primary obstacles remain: lack of referencing a common ''primary key'', un-structured and free-form descriptions of necessary vulnerability data, and lack of data on all aspects of a vulnerability. This work has only considered data that can be unambiguously extracted from various data sources by straightforward parsers. It is felt that even with the use of more advanced, information mining tools, which can wade through the sea of unstructured vulnerability data, this current integration methodology would still provide repeatable, unambiguous, and exhaustive results. Though the goal of coalescing all available data, which would be of use

  9. Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

    2009-04-01

    Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although

  10. Spatial Distribution and Trends of Waterborne Diseases in Tashkent Province

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Veluswami Saravanan; Cho, Min Jung; Tan, Siwei Zoe; Fayzieva, Dilorom; Sebaly, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The cumulative effect of limited investment in public water systems, inadequate public health infrastructure, and gaps in infectious disease prevention increased the incidence of waterborne diseases in Uzbekistan. The objectives of this study were: (1) to spatially analyze the distribution of the diseases in Tashkent Province, (2) to identify the intensity of spatial trends in the province, (3) to identify urban-rural characteristics of the disease distribution, and (4) to identify the differences in disease incidence between pediatric and adult populations of the province. Methods: Data on four major waterborne diseases and socio-demographics factors were collected in Tashkent Province from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal methods were used to investigate the distribution and trends, and to identify waterborne diseases hotspots and vulnerable population groups in the province. Results: Hepatitis A and enterobiasis had a high incidence in most of Tashkent Province, with higher incidences in the eastern and western districts. Residents of rural areas, including children, were found to be more vulnerable to the waterborne diseases compared to other populations living in the province. Conclusions: This pilot study calls for more scientific investigations of waterborne diseases and their effect on public health in the region, which could facilitate targeted public health interventions in vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan. PMID:29138738

  11. Spatial Distribution and Trends of Waterborne Diseases in Tashkent Province.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Veluswami Saravanan; Cho, Min Jung; Tan, Siwei Zoe; Fayzieva, Dilorom; Sebaly, Christian

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effect of limited investment in public water systems, inadequate public health infrastructure, and gaps in infectious disease prevention increased the incidence of waterborne diseases in Uzbekistan. The objectives of this study were: (1) to spatially analyze the distribution of the diseases in Tashkent Province, (2) to identify the intensity of spatial trends in the province, (3) to identify urban-rural characteristics of the disease distribution, and (4) to identify the differences in disease incidence between pediatric and adult populations of the province. Data on four major waterborne diseases and socio-demographics factors were collected in Tashkent Province from 2011 to 2014. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal methods were used to investigate the distribution and trends, and to identify waterborne diseases hotspots and vulnerable population groups in the province. Hepatitis A and enterobiasis had a high incidence in most of Tashkent Province, with higher incidences in the eastern and western districts. Residents of rural areas, including children, were found to be more vulnerable to the waterborne diseases compared to other populations living in the province. This pilot study calls for more scientific investigations of waterborne diseases and their effect on public health in the region, which could facilitate targeted public health interventions in vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan.

  12. The role of PET quantification in cardiovascular imaging.

    PubMed

    Slomka, Piotr; Berman, Daniel S; Alexanderson, Erick; Germano, Guido

    2014-08-01

    Positron Emission Tomography (PET) has several clinical and research applications in cardiovascular imaging. Myocardial perfusion imaging with PET allows accurate global and regional measurements of myocardial perfusion, myocardial blood flow and function at stress and rest in one exam. Simultaneous assessment of function and perfusion by PET with quantitative software is currently the routine practice. Combination of ejection fraction reserve with perfusion information may improve the identification of severe disease. The myocardial viability can be estimated by quantitative comparison of fluorodeoxyglucose ( 18 FDG) and rest perfusion imaging. The myocardial blood flow and coronary flow reserve measurements are becoming routinely included in the clinical assessment due to enhanced dynamic imaging capabilities of the latest PET/CT scanners. Absolute flow measurements allow evaluation of the coronary microvascular dysfunction and provide additional prognostic and diagnostic information for coronary disease. Standard quantitative approaches to compute myocardial blood flow from kinetic PET data in automated and rapid fashion have been developed for 13 N-ammonia, 15 O-water and 82 Rb radiotracers. The agreement between software methods available for such analysis is excellent. Relative quantification of 82 Rb PET myocardial perfusion, based on comparisons to normal databases, demonstrates high performance for the detection of obstructive coronary disease. New tracers, such as 18 F-flurpiridaz may allow further improvements in the disease detection. Computerized analysis of perfusion at stress and rest reduces the variability of the assessment as compared to visual analysis. PET quantification can be enhanced by precise coregistration with CT angiography. In emerging clinical applications, the potential to identify vulnerable plaques by quantification of atherosclerotic plaque uptake of 18 FDG and 18 F-sodium fluoride tracers in carotids, aorta and coronary arteries

  13. Coastal Vulnerability and risk assessment of infrastructures, natural and cultural heritage sites in Greece.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

    2016-04-01

    The majority of human activities are concentrated around coastal areas, making coastline retreat, a significant threat to coastal infrastructure, thus increasing protection cost and investment revenue losses. In this study the management of coastal areas in terms of protecting coastal infrastructures, cultural and environmental heritage sites, through risk assessment analysis is been made. The scope is to provide data for spatial planning for future developments in the coastal zone and the protection of existing ones. Also to determine the impact of coastal changes related to the loss of natural resources, agricultural land and beaches. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach, combining environmental, spatial and economic data. This can be implemented by integrating the assessment of vulnerability of coasts, the spatial distribution and structural elements of coastal infrastructure (transport, tourism, and energy) and financial data by region, in a spatial database. The approach is based on coastal vulnerability estimations, considering sea level rise, land loss, extreme events, safety, adaptability and resilience of infrastructure and natural sites. It is based on coupling of environmental indicators and econometric models to determine the socio-economic impact in coastal infrastructure, cultural and environmental heritage sites. The indicators include variables like the coastal geomorphology; coastal slope; relative sea-level rise rate; shoreline erosion/accretion rate; mean tidal range and mean wave height. The anthropogenic factors include variables like settlements, sites of cultural heritage, transport networks, land uses, significance of infrastructure (e.g. military, power plans) and economic activities. The analysis in performed by a GIS application. The forcing variables are determined with the use of sub-indices related to coastal geomorphology, climate and wave variables and the socioeconomics of the coastal zone. The Greek coastline in

  14. The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management.

    PubMed

    Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Adams, Vanessa M; Hermoso, Virgilio

    2018-04-01

    Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. Quantification of Fugitive Methane Emissions with Spatially Correlated Measurements Collected with Novel Plume Camera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Tracy; Rella, Chris; Crosson, Eric

    2013-04-01

    Quantification of fugitive methane emissions from unconventional natural gas (i.e. shale gas, tight sand gas, etc.) production, processing, and transport is essential for scientists, policy-makers, and the energy industry, because methane has a global warming potential of at least 21 times that of carbon dioxide over a span of 100 years [1]. Therefore, fugitive emissions reduce any environmental benefits to using natural gas instead of traditional fossil fuels [2]. Current measurement techniques involve first locating all the possible leaks and then measuring the emission of each leak. This technique is a painstaking and slow process that cannot be scaled up to the large size of the natural gas industry in which there are at least half a million natural gas wells in the United States alone [3]. An alternative method is to calculate the emission of a plume through dispersion modeling. This method is a scalable approach since all the individual leaks within a natural gas facility can be aggregated into a single plume measurement. However, plume dispersion modeling requires additional knowledge of the distance to the source, atmospheric turbulence, and local topography, and it is a mathematically intensive process. Therefore, there is a need for an instrument capable of simple, rapid, and accurate measurements of fugitive methane emissions on a per well head scale. We will present the "plume camera" instrument, which simultaneously measures methane at different spatial points or pixels. The spatial correlation between methane measurements provides spatial information of the plume, and in addition to the wind measurement collected with a sonic anemometer, the flux can be determined. Unlike the plume dispersion model, this approach does not require knowledge of the distance to the source and atmospheric conditions. Moreover, the instrument can fit inside a standard car such that emission measurements can be performed on a per well head basis. In a controlled experiment

  16. Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

    Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

  17. Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

  18. Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    In the last three or four decades, vulnerability evolved from physical fragility meanings to a more complex concept, being a key element of risk assessment. In landslide risk assessment, there are a large series of studies regarding landslide hazard, but far fewer researches focusing on vulnerability measurement. Furthermore, there is still no unitary understanding on the methodological framework, neither any internationally agreed standard for landslide vulnerability measurements. The omnipresent common element is the existence of elements at risk, but while some approaches are limited to exposure, other focus on the degree of losses (human injuries, material damages and monetary losses, structural dysfunctions etc.). These losses are differently assessed using both absolute and relative values on qualitative or quantitative scales and they are differently integrated to provide a final vulnerability value. This study aims to assess vulnerability to landslides at local level using an indicator-based model applied to urban areas and tested for Husi town (Eastern Romania). The study region is characterized by permeable and impermeable alternating sedimentary rocks, monoclinal geological structure and hilly relief with impressive cuestas, continental temperate climate, and precipitation of about 500 mm/year, rising to 700 m and even more in some rainy years. The town is a middle size one (25000 inhabitants) and it had an ascending evolution in the last centuries, followed by an increasing human pressure on lands. Methodologically, the first step was to assess the landslide susceptibility and to identify in this way those regions within which any asset would be exposed to landslide hazards. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using the logistic regression approach, taking into account several quantitative and qualitative factors (elements of geology, morphometry, rainfall, land use etc.). The spatial background consisted in the Digital Elevation Model and all derived

  19. Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second,more » how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability« less

  20. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    PubMed

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

    2015-06-01

    In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

  2. Continental patterns of submarine groundwater discharge reveal coastal vulnerabilities.

    PubMed

    Sawyer, Audrey H; David, Cédric H; Famiglietti, James S

    2016-08-12

    Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) delivers water and dissolved chemicals from continents to oceans, and its spatial distribution affects coastal water quality. Unlike rivers, SGD is broadly distributed and relatively difficult to measure, especially at continental scales. We present spatially resolved estimates of fresh (land-derived) SGD for the contiguous United States based on historical climate records and high-resolution hydrographic data. Climate controls regional patterns in fresh SGD, while coastal drainage geometry imparts strong local variability. Because the recharge zones that contribute fresh SGD are densely populated, the quality and quantity of fresh SGD are both vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance. Our analysis unveils hot spots for contaminant discharge to marine waters and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. The effect of spatial resolution on water scarcity estimates in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gevaert, Anouk; Veldkamp, Ted; van Dijk, Albert; Ward, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is an important global issue with severe socio-economic consequences, and its occurrence is likely to increase in many regions due to population growth, economic development and climate change. This has prompted a number of global and regional studies to identify areas that are vulnerable to water scarcity and to determine how this vulnerability will change in the future. A drawback of these studies, however, is that they typically have coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we studied the effect of increasing the spatial resolution of water scarcity estimates in Australia, and the Murray-Darling Basin in particular. This was achieved by calculating the water stress index (WSI), an indicator showing the ratio of water use to water availability, at 0.5 and 0.05 degree resolution for the period 1990-2010. Monthly water availability data were based on outputs of the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model (AWRA-L), which was run at both spatial resolutions and at a daily time scale. Water use information was obtained from a monthly 0.5 degree global dataset that distinguishes between water consumption for irrigation, livestock, industrial and domestic uses. The data were downscaled to 0.05 degree by dividing the sectoral water uses over the areas covered by relevant land use types using a high resolution ( 0.5km) land use dataset. The monthly WSIs at high and low resolution were then used to evaluate differences in the patterns of water scarcity frequency and intensity. In this way, we assess to what extent increasing the spatial resolution can improve the identification of vulnerable areas and thereby assist in the development of strategies to lower this vulnerability. The results of this study provide insight into the scalability of water scarcity estimates and the added value of high resolution water scarcity information in water resources management.

  4. Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning.

    PubMed

    Cutts, Bethany B; Greenlee, Andrew J; Prochaska, Natalie K; Chantrill, Carolina V; Contractor, Annie B; Wilhoit, Juliana M; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

    2018-01-01

    Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics

  5. Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning

    PubMed Central

    Greenlee, Andrew J.; Prochaska, Natalie K.; Chantrill, Carolina V.; Contractor, Annie B.; Wilhoit, Juliana M.; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

    2018-01-01

    Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics

  6. Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

    PubMed Central

    Arokoyu, Samuel B.

    2015-01-01

    In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

  7. Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

    2012-06-01

    This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

  8. Vulnerability in patients and nurses and the mutual vulnerability in the patient-nurse relationship.

    PubMed

    Angel, Sanne; Vatne, Solfrid

    2017-05-01

    To examine the mutual vulnerability of patients and nurses, anticipating that an enhanced understanding of the phenomenon may help reduce vulnerability. Patient vulnerability is a key issue in nursing, aimed at protecting the patient from harm. In the literature, vulnerability is described both from a risk perspective and a subjective perspective. This implies that the objective dimension of patient vulnerability does not necessarily reflect the patient's own perception of being vulnerable. However, external judgment may influence internal perception. Adding to this complexity, attention has also been drawn to the vulnerability of the nurse. A definition deduced from central literature on vulnerability captures the complexity of objective versus subjective vulnerability. Based on the perspective of vulnerability in general, vulnerability in healthcare services shows how dependency may increase patient vulnerability. Further, despite education, training and supportive settings, patients may increase nurse vulnerability. The core of this mutuality is explored in the light of Martin Heidegger's philosophy of being. The patient's need for help from the nurse opens the patient to engage in supportive and/or harmful encounters. Thus, dependency adds to the vulnerability related to health issues. The nurse's vulnerability lies in her engagement in caring for the patient. If failing to provide proper care, the nurse's existence as 'a good nurse' is threatened. This is exacerbated if the patient turns against the nurse. Therefore, the core of vulnerability seems to lie in the fact that the patient and the nurse are both striving to be the persons they want to be, and the persons they have not yet become. Recognition of the mutual vulnerability in the patient-nurse relationship calls for collective acknowledgement of the demanding nature of caring relationships, for support and for a strengthening of professional skills. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. National Vulnerability Database (NVD)

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    National Vulnerability Database (NVD) (Web, free access)   NVD is a comprehensive cyber security vulnerability database that integrates all publicly available U.S. Government vulnerability resources and provides references to industry resources. It is based on and synchronized with the CVE vulnerability naming standard.

  10. Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

    2016-05-01

    As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

  11. Quantification and micron-scale imaging of spatial distribution of trace beryllium in shrapnel fragments and metallurgic samples with correlative fluorescence detection method and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS)

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Jerrold L.; Chandra, Subhash; Agrawal, Anoop

    2014-01-01

    Recently, a report raised the possibility of shrapnel-induced chronic beryllium disease (CBD) from long-term exposure to the surface of retained aluminum shrapnel fragments in the body. Since the shrapnel fragments contained trace beryllium, methodological developments were needed for beryllium quantification and to study its spatial distribution in relation to other matrix elements, such as aluminum and iron, in metallurgic samples. In this work, we developed methodology for quantification of trace beryllium in samples of shrapnel fragments and other metallurgic sample-types with main matrix of aluminum (aluminum cans from soda, beer, carbonated water, and aluminum foil). Sample preparation procedures were developed for dissolving beryllium for its quantification with the fluorescence detection method for homogenized measurements. The spatial distribution of trace beryllium on the sample surface and in 3D was imaged with a dynamic secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) instrument, CAMECA IMS 3f SIMS ion microscope. The beryllium content of shrapnel (~100 ppb) was the same as the trace quantities of beryllium found in aluminum cans. The beryllium content of aluminum foil (~25 ppb) was significantly lower than cans. SIMS imaging analysis revealed beryllium to be distributed in the form of low micron-sized particles and clusters distributed randomly in X-Y-and Z dimensions, and often in association with iron, in the main aluminum matrix of cans. These observations indicate a plausible formation of Be-Fe or Al-Be alloy in the matrix of cans. Further observations were made on fluids (carbonated water) for understanding if trace beryllium in cans leached out and contaminated the food product. A direct comparison of carbonated water in aluminum cans and plastic bottles revealed that beryllium was below the detection limits of the fluorescence detection method (~0.01 ppb). These observations indicate that beryllium present in aluminum matrix was either present in an

  12. Quantification and micron-scale imaging of spatial distribution of trace beryllium in shrapnel fragments and metallurgic samples with correlative fluorescence detection method and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS).

    PubMed

    Abraham, J L; Chandra, S; Agrawal, A

    2014-11-01

    Recently, a report raised the possibility of shrapnel-induced chronic beryllium disease from long-term exposure to the surface of retained aluminum shrapnel fragments in the body. Since the shrapnel fragments contained trace beryllium, methodological developments were needed for beryllium quantification and to study its spatial distribution in relation to other matrix elements, such as aluminum and iron, in metallurgic samples. In this work, we developed methodology for quantification of trace beryllium in samples of shrapnel fragments and other metallurgic sample-types with main matrix of aluminum (aluminum cans from soda, beer, carbonated water and aluminum foil). Sample preparation procedures were developed for dissolving beryllium for its quantification with the fluorescence detection method for homogenized measurements. The spatial distribution of trace beryllium on the sample surface and in 3D was imaged with a dynamic secondary ion mass spectrometry instrument, CAMECA IMS 3f secondary ion mass spectrometry ion microscope. The beryllium content of shrapnel (∼100 ppb) was the same as the trace quantities of beryllium found in aluminum cans. The beryllium content of aluminum foil (∼25 ppb) was significantly lower than cans. SIMS imaging analysis revealed beryllium to be distributed in the form of low micron-sized particles and clusters distributed randomly in X-Y- and Z dimensions, and often in association with iron, in the main aluminum matrix of cans. These observations indicate a plausible formation of Be-Fe or Al-Be alloy in the matrix of cans. Further observations were made on fluids (carbonated water) for understanding if trace beryllium in cans leached out and contaminated the food product. A direct comparison of carbonated water in aluminum cans and plastic bottles revealed that beryllium was below the detection limits of the fluorescence detection method (∼0.01 ppb). These observations indicate that beryllium present in aluminum matrix was either

  13. On Information Metrics for Spatial Coding.

    PubMed

    Souza, Bryan C; Pavão, Rodrigo; Belchior, Hindiael; Tort, Adriano B L

    2018-04-01

    The hippocampal formation is involved in navigation, and its neuronal activity exhibits a variety of spatial correlates (e.g., place cells, grid cells). The quantification of the information encoded by spikes has been standard procedure to identify which cells have spatial correlates. For place cells, most of the established metrics derive from Shannon's mutual information (Shannon, 1948), and convey information rate in bits/s or bits/spike (Skaggs et al., 1993, 1996). Despite their widespread use, the performance of these metrics in relation to the original mutual information metric has never been investigated. In this work, using simulated and real data, we find that the current information metrics correlate less with the accuracy of spatial decoding than the original mutual information metric. We also find that the top informative cells may differ among metrics, and show a surrogate-based normalization that yields comparable spatial information estimates. Since different information metrics may identify different neuronal populations, we discuss current and alternative definitions of spatially informative cells, which affect the metric choice. Copyright © 2018 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Vulnerability to Climate Change of Mangroves: Assessment from Cameroon, Central Africa

    PubMed Central

    Ellison, Joanna C.; Zouh, Isabella

    2012-01-01

    Intertidal mangrove ecosystems are sensitive to climate change impacts, particularly to associated relative sea level rise. Human stressors and low tidal range add to vulnerability, both characteristics of the Doula Estuary, Cameroon. To investigate vulnerability, spatial techniques were combined with ground surveys to map distributions of mangrove zones, and compare with historical spatial records to quantify change over the last few decades. Low technology techniques were used to establish the tidal range and relative elevation of the mapped mangrove area. Stratigraphic coring and palaeobiological reconstruction were used to show the longer term biological history of mangroves and net sedimentation rate, and oral history surveys of local communities were used to provide evidence of recent change and identify possible causes. Results showed that the seaward edge of mangroves had over two thirds of the shoreline experienced dieback at up to 3 m per year over the last three decades, and an offshore mangrove island had suffered 89% loss. Results also showed low net sedimentation rates under seaward edge mangroves, and restricted intertidal elevation habitats of all mangroves, and Avicennia and Laguncularia in particular. To reduce vulnerability, adaptation planning can be improved by reducing the non-climate stressors on the mangrove area, particularly those resulting from human impacts. Other priorities for adaptation planning in mangrove areas that are located in such low tidal range regions are to plan inland migration areas and strategic protected areas for mangroves, and to undertake management activities that enhance accretion within the mangroves. PMID:24832511

  15. A conceptual framework towards more holistic freshwater conservation planning through incorporation of stream connectivity and thermal vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramulifho, P. A.; Rivers-Moore, N. A.; Dallas, H. F.; Foord, S. H.

    2018-01-01

    The thermal regime of rivers plays an important role in the overall health and composition of aquatic ecosystems, and together with flow, is recognised as one of the most influential abiotic drivers of aquatic ecosystem processes affecting species distribution. Changes in thermal conditions in aquatic systems are driven by on-going human-induced climate change, hydrological, regional and structural factors. Here, we quantified the impact of instream impoundments on the natural longitudinal connectivity and estimated thermal vulnerability of catchments based on the functional relationship between changing temperature and the profile gradient of rivers in the eastern portion of South Africa. We identified catchments that are most vulnerable to thermal stress based on cold-water adapted species' tolerance to thermal changes. More than half of all studied catchments include rivers that are relatively intact longitudinally, with notable exceptions being rivers in the central portion of the study area. Thermal condition of high elevation sites is more heavily impacted by impoundments and consequently thermal vulnerability of these sites are higher. Blephariceridae and Notonemouridae, the most thermophobic families, are likely to become locally threatened or extinct, in the absence of connectivity. The quantification of stream connectivity and vulnerability of organisms to thermal changes in river systems are important decision making tools for effective adaptive and holistic conservation planning strategies.

  16. Enhancing the relevance of new scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Ruijven, B. J.

    2013-12-01

    Over the past three decades, scenario analyses have occupied a central role in assessments of the potential impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at different scales during the 21st century. Here, we discuss the role and relevance of new scenarios using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of new scenarios needing to be improved in order to enhance their usefulness for IAV studies: the ability to work coherently across spatial scales and adding indicators of importance to projections of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in addition to standard indicators of population and gross domestic product. This paper presents a research agenda to add income distribution, spatial population, human health projections, and governance indicators to the new scenarios.

  17. Metadata for selecting or submitting generic seismic vulnerability functions via GEM's vulnerability database

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor

    2013-01-01

    This memo lays out a procedure for the GEM software to offer an available vulnerability function for any acceptable set of attributes that the user specifies for a particular building category. The memo also provides general guidelines on how to submit the vulnerability or fragility functions to the GEM vulnerability repository, stipulating which attributes modelers must provide so that their vulnerability or fragility functions can be queried appropriately by the vulnerability database. An important objective is to provide users guidance on limitations and applicability by providing the associated modeling assumptions and applicability of each vulnerability or fragility function.

  18. The mechanisms of neurotoxicity and the selective vulnerability of nervous system sites.

    PubMed

    Maurer, Laura L; Philbert, Martin A

    2015-01-01

    The spatial heterogeneity of the structure, function, and cellular composition of the nervous system confers extraordinary complexity and a multiplicity of mechanisms of chemical neurotoxicity. Because of its relatively high metabolic demands and functional dependence on postmitotic neurons, the nervous system is vulnerable to a variety of xenobiotics that affect essential homeostatic mechanisms that support function. Despite protection from the neuroglia and blood-brain barrier, the central nervous system is prone to attack from lipophilic toxicants and those that hijack endogenous transport, receptor, metabolic, and other biochemical systems. The inherent predilection of chemicals for highly conserved biochemical systems confers selective vulnerability of the nervous system to neurotoxicants. This chapter discusses selective vulnerability of the nervous system in the context of neuron-specific decrements (axonopathy, myelinopathy, disruption of neurotransmission), and the degree to which neuronal damage is facilitated or ameliorated by surrounding nonneural cells in both the central and peripheral nervous systems. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Extended generalized recurrence plot quantification of complex circular patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedl, Maik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-03-01

    The generalized recurrence plot is a modern tool for quantification of complex spatial patterns. Its application spans the analysis of trabecular bone structures, Turing patterns, turbulent spatial plankton patterns, and fractals. Determinism is a central measure in this framework quantifying the level of regularity of spatial structures. We show by basic examples of fully regular patterns of different symmetries that this measure underestimates the orderliness of circular patterns resulting from rotational symmetries. We overcome this crucial problem by checking additional structural elements of the generalized recurrence plot which is demonstrated with the examples. Furthermore, we show the potential of the extended quantity of determinism applying it to more irregular circular patterns which are generated by the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation and which can be often observed in real spatially extended dynamical systems. So, we are able to reconstruct the main separations of the system's parameter space analyzing single snapshots of the real part only, in contrast to the use of the original quantity. This ability of the proposed method promises also an improved description of other systems with complicated spatio-temporal dynamics typically occurring in fluid dynamics, climatology, biology, ecology, social sciences, etc.

  20. Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

    2007-01-01

    The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

  1. Vulnerability and adaptation of US shellfisheries to ocean acidification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekstrom, Julia A.; Suatoni, Lisa; Cooley, Sarah R.; Pendleton, Linwood H.; Waldbusser, George G.; Cinner, Josh E.; Ritter, Jessica; Langdon, Chris; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Gledhill, Dwight; Wellman, Katharine; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke M.; Rittschof, Dan; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter E. T.; Portela, Rosimeiry

    2015-03-01

    Ocean acidification is a global, long-term problem whose ultimate solution requires carbon dioxide reduction at a scope and scale that will take decades to accomplish successfully. Until that is achieved, feasible and locally relevant adaptation and mitigation measures are needed. To help to prioritize societal responses to ocean acidification, we present a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary vulnerability analysis of coastal human communities in the United States. We focus our analysis on shelled mollusc harvests, which are likely to be harmed by ocean acidification. Our results highlight US regions most vulnerable to ocean acidification (and why), important knowledge and information gaps, and opportunities to adapt through local actions. The research illustrates the benefits of integrating natural and social sciences to identify actions and other opportunities while policy, stakeholders and scientists are still in relatively early stages of developing research plans and responses to ocean acidification.

  2. A Methodology for Dynamic Security Risk Quantification and Optimal Resource Allocation of Security Assets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Betzsold, Nick J.; Bakker, Craig KR

    In this presentation we overview a methodology for dynamic security risk quantification and optimal resource allocation of security assets for high profile venues. This methodology is especially applicable to venues that require security screening operations such as mass transit (e.g., train or airport terminals), critical infrastructure protection (e.g., government buildings), and largescale public events (e.g., concerts or professional sports). The method starts by decomposing the three core components of risk -- threat, vulnerability, and consequence -- into their various subcomponents. For instance, vulnerability can be decomposed into availability, accessibility, organic security, and target hardness and each of these can bemore » evaluated against the potential threats of interest for the given venue. Once evaluated, these subcomponents are rolled back up to compute the specific value for the vulnerability core risk component. Likewise, the same is done for consequence and threat, and then risk is computed as the product of these three components. A key aspect of our methodology is dynamically quantifying risk. That is, we incorporate the ability to uniquely allow the subcomponents and core components, and in turn, risk, to be quantified as a continuous function of time throughout the day, week, month, or year as appropriate.« less

  3. [Aging and becoming vulnerable].

    PubMed

    Monod, Stéfanie; Sautebin, Annelore

    2009-11-18

    "The vulnerable are those whose autonomy, dignity and integrity are capable of being threatened". Based on this ethical definition of vulnerability, four risk factors of vulnerability might be identified among elderly persons, and are described in this article: the functional limitation, the loss of autonomy, the social precariousness and the restriction of access to medical care. A clinical case of elderly abuse is presented to illustrate vulnerability. Finally, some recommendations to lower the risk of vulnerability in elderly persons are proposed.

  4. Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modeling and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willers, Cornelius J.; Willers, Maria S.; de Waal, Alta

    2014-10-01

    Infrared missiles pose a significant threat to civilian and military aviation. ManPADS missiles are especially dangerous in the hands of rogue and undisciplined forces. Yet, not all the launched missiles hit their targets; the miss being either attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft-missile engagement is a complex series of events, many of which are only partially understood. Aircraft and missile designers focus on the optimal design and performance of their respective systems, often testing only in a limited set of scenarios. Most missiles react to the contrast intensity, but the variability of the background is rarely considered. Finally, the vulnerability of the aircraft depends jointly on the missile's performance and the doctrine governing the missile's launch. These factors are considered in a holistic investigation. The view direction, altitude, time of day, sun position, latitude/longitude and terrain determine the background against which the aircraft is observed. Especially high gradients in sky radiance occur around the sun and on the horizon. This paper considers uncluttered background scenes (uniform terrain and clear sky) and presents examples of background radiance at all view angles across a sphere around the sensor. A detailed geometrical and spatially distributed radiometric model is used to model the aircraft. This model provides the signature at all possible view angles across the sphere around the aircraft. The signature is determined in absolute terms (no background) and in contrast terms (with background). It is shown that the background significantly affects the contrast signature as observed by the missile sensor. A simplified missile model is constructed by defining the thrust and mass profiles, maximum seeker tracking rate, maximum

  5. Impact Induced Delamination Detection and Quantification With Guided Wavefield Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tian, Zhenhua; Leckey, Cara A. C.; Yu, Lingyu; Seebo, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies impact induced delamination detection and quantification by using guided wavefield data and spatial wavenumber imaging. The complex geometry impact-like delamination is created through a quasi-static indentation on a CFRP plate. To detect and quantify the impact delamination in the CFRP plate, PZT-SLDV sensing and spatial wavenumber imaging are performed. In the PZT-SLDV sensing, the guided waves are generated from the PZT, and the high spatial resolution guided wavefields are measured by the SLDV. The guided wavefield data acquired from the PZT-SLDV sensing represent guided wave propagation in the composite laminate and include guided wave interaction with the delamination damage. The measured guided wavefields are analyzed through the spatial wavenumber imaging method, which generates an image containing the dominant local wavenumber at each spatial location. The spatial wavenumber imaging result for the simple single layer Teflon insert delamination provided quantitative information on delamination damage size and location. The location of delamination damage is indicated by the area with larger wavenumbers in the spatial wavenumber image. The impact-like delamination results only partially agreed with the damage size and shape. The results also demonstrated the dependence on excitation frequency. Future work will further investigate the accuracy of the wavenumber imaging method for real composite damage and the dependence on frequency of excitation.

  6. Vulnerability to the transmission of human visceral leishmaniasis in a Brazilian urban area.

    PubMed

    Toledo, Celina Roma Sánchez de; Almeida, Andréa Sobral de; Chaves, Sergio Augusto de Miranda; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; Toledo, Luciano Medeiros; Caldas, Jefferson Pereira

    2017-05-15

    To analyze the determinants for the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis linked to the conditions of vulnerability. This is an ecological study, whose spatial analysis unit was the Territorial Analysis Unit in Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from 2007 to 2012. We have carried out an analysis of the sociodemographic and urban infrastructure situation of the municipality. Normalized primary indicators were calculated and used to construct the indicators of vulnerability of the social structure, household structure, and urban infrastructure. From them, we have composed a vulnerability index. Kernel density estimation was used to evaluate the density of cases of human visceral leishmaniasis, based on the coordinates of the cases. Bivariate global Moran's I was used to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation between the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis and the indicators and index of vulnerability. Bivariate local Moran's I was used to identify spatial clusters. We have observed a pattern of centrifugal spread of human visceral leishmaniasis in the municipality, where outbreaks of the disease have progressively reached central and peri-urban areas. There has been no correlation between higher incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis and worse living conditions. Statistically significant clusters have been observed between the incidences of human visceral leishmaniasis in both periods analyzed (2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012) and the indicators and index of vulnerability. The environment in circumscribed areas helps as protection factor or increases the local vulnerability to the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis. The use of methodology that analyzes the conditions of life of the population and the spatial distribution of human visceral leishmaniasis is essential to identify the most vulnerable areas to the spread/maintenance of the disease. Analisar determinantes para a ocorrência da leishmaniose visceral humana vinculados

  7. Eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for large drinking water resource: a case study of Qiandao Lake Area, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Qing; Li, Jun; Deng, Jinsong; Lin, Yi; Ma, Ligang; Wu, Chaofan; Wang, Ke; Hong, Yang

    2015-09-01

    The Qiandao Lake Area (QLA) is of great significance in terms of drinking water supply in East Coast China as well as a nationally renowned tourist attraction. A series of laws and regulations regarding the QLA environment have been enacted and implemented throughout the past decade with the aim of negating the harmful effects associated with expanding urbanization and industrialization. In this research, an assessment framework was developed to analyze the eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA from 1990-2010 by integrating fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and geographical information systems (GIS) in an attempt to gain insights into the status quo of the QLA so as to review and evaluate the effectiveness of the related policies. After processing and analyzing the temporal and spatial variation of eco-environmental vulnerability and major environmental issues in the QLA, we found that the state of eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA was acceptable, though a moderate deterioration was detected during the study period. Furthermore, analysis of the combination of vulnerability and water quality indicated that the water quality showed signs of declination, though the overall status remained satisfactory. It was hence concluded that the collective protection and treatment actions were effective over the study period, whereas immediately stricter measures would be required for protecting the drinking water quality from domestic sewage and industrial wastewater. Finally, the spatial variation of the eco-environmental vulnerability assessment also implied that specifically more targeted measures should be adopted in respective regions for long-term sustainable development of the QLA.

  8. [Temporal-spatial variations of reference evapotranspiration in Anhui Province and the quantification of the causes].

    PubMed

    Cao, Wen; Duan, Chun-feng; Yao, Yun; Yue, Wei

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was computed with the recommended FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation for Anhui Province using data collected 60 weather stations during 1961 to 2010 and its temporal-spatial variations were characterized. The determining factors in ET0 trends were inquired into through partial derivative quantification analysis for the study region. Results showed that the mean annual ET0 was 878.58 mm x a(-1) over the whole region during the study period. ET0 was the highest in summer and the lowest in winter. The mean annual ET0 decreased from the north to the south and from low altitude regions to high altitude regions. Both sunshine duration and wind speed were the dominant factors contributing to the interannual change of ET0, with less contribution from air temperature or relative humidity. The annual ET0 showed a general decline at a rate of -1.61 mm x a(-1) owing to a more negative contribution of sunshine duration and wind speed than a positive contribution of air temperature and relative humidity. ET0 increased insignificantly in spring and decreased slightly in both autumn and winter. However, it decreased significantly at a rate of -1.37 mm x a(-1) in summer. The main impacting factor was wind speed in spring, autumn and winter, but it was sunshine duration in summer. Great differences in the determining factors of the mean annual ET0 existed from area to area in Anhui Province. The wind speed was the determining factor for 36.7% of the whole stations distributing in the southern part of the area north to the Huaihe River and the area along the Huaihe River, while the sunshine duration was the determining factor for the other regions.

  9. Ground-water vulnerability to nitrate contamination in the mid-atlantic region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greene, Earl A.; LaMotte, Andrew E.; Cullinan, Kerri-Ann; Smith, Elizabeth R.

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s (USEPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, integrated ecological risk-assessment studies. One of these tools, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is used with available water-quality data obtained from USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) and other studies in association with land cover, geology, soils, and other geographic data to develop logistic-regression equations that predict the vulnerability of ground water to nitrate concentrations exceeding specified thresholds in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The models were developed and applied to produce spatial probability maps showing the likelihood of elevated concentrations of nitrate in the region. These maps can be used to identify areas that currently are at risk and help identify areas where ground water has been affected by human activities. This information can be used by regional and local water managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in these vulnerable areas.

  10. Two-stream Convolutional Neural Network for Methane Emissions Quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Ravikumar, A. P.; McGuire, M.; Bell, C.; Tchapmi, L. P.; Brandt, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Methane, a key component of natural gas, has a 25x higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide on a 100-year basis. Accurately monitoring and mitigating methane emissions require cost-effective detection and quantification technologies. Optical gas imaging, one of the most commonly used leak detection technology, adopted by Environmental Protection Agency, cannot estimate leak-sizes. In this work, we harness advances in computer science to allow for rapid and automatic leak quantification. Particularly, we utilize two-stream deep Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) to estimate leak-size by capturing complementary spatial information from still plume frames, and temporal information from plume motion between frames. We build large leak datasets for training and evaluating purposes by collecting about 20 videos (i.e. 397,400 frames) of leaks. The videos were recorded at six distances from the source, covering 10 -60 ft. Leak sources included natural gas well-heads, separators, and tanks. All frames were labeled with a true leak size, which has eight levels ranging from 0 to 140 MCFH. Preliminary analysis shows that two-stream ConvNets provides significant accuracy advantage over single steam ConvNets. Spatial stream ConvNet can achieve an accuracy of 65.2%, by extracting important features, including texture, plume area, and pattern. Temporal stream, fed by the results of optical flow analysis, results in an accuracy of 58.3%. The integration of the two-stream ConvNets gives a combined accuracy of 77.6%. For future work, we will split the training and testing datasets in distinct ways in order to test the generalization of the algorithm for different leak sources. Several analytic metrics, including confusion matrix and visualization of key features, will be used to understand accuracy rates and occurrences of false positives. The quantification algorithm can help to find and fix super-emitters, and improve the cost-effectiveness of leak detection and repair

  11. An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

    2016-04-01

    AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability

  12. The vulnerability and resilience of a city's water footprint: The case of Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rushforth, Richard R.; Ruddell, Benjamin L.

    2016-04-01

    Research has yet to operationalize water footprint information for urban water policy and planning to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience to water scarcity. Using a county-level database of the U.S. hydro-economy, NWED, we spatially mapped and analyzed the Water Footprint of Flagstaff, Arizona, a small city. Virtual water inflow and outflow networks were developed using the flow of commodities into and out of the city. The power law distribution of virtual water trade volume between Flagstaff and its county trading partners broke at a spatial distance of roughly 2000 km. Most large trading partners are within this geographical distance, and this distance is an objective definition for Flagstaff's zone of indirect hydro-economic influence—that is, its water resource hinterland. Metrics were developed to measure Flagstaff's reliance on virtual water resources, versus direct use of local physical water resources. Flagstaff's reliance on external water supplies via virtual water trade increases both its hydro-economic resilience and vulnerability to water scarcity. These methods empower city managers to operationalize the city's Water Footprint information to reduce vulnerability, increase resilience, and optimally balance the allocation of local physical water supplies with the outsourcing of some water uses via the virtual water supply chain.

  13. Integrating socio-economic and infrastructural dimension to reveal hazard vulnerability of coastal districts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazumdar, Jublee; Paul, Saikat

    2015-04-01

    scores are then mapped for spatial analysis. Utilizing SeVI and InVI, the highly vulnerable districts are demonstrated that are likely to face significant challenges in coping with tropical cyclone and require strategies to address the various aspects of socio-economic and infrastructural vulnerability. Moreover, this model can be incorporated not only for multi-level governance but also to integrate it with the real-time weather forecasts to identify the predictive areas of vulnerability.

  14. Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

  15. Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comte, Lise; Olden, Julian D.

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is a mounting threat to biological diversity, compromising ecosystem structure and function, and undermining the delivery of essential services worldwide. As the magnitude and speed of climate change accelerates, greater understanding of the taxonomy and geography of climatic vulnerability is critical to guide effective conservation action. However, many uncertainties remain regarding the degree and variability of climatic risk within entire clades and across vast ecosystem boundaries. Here we integrate physiological estimates of thermal sensitivity for 2,960 ray-finned fishes with future climatic exposure, and demonstrate that global patterns of vulnerability differ substantially between freshwater and marine realms. Our results suggest that climatic vulnerability for freshwater faunas will be predominantly determined by elevated levels of climatic exposure predicted for the Northern Hemisphere, whereas marine faunas in the tropics will be the most at risk, reflecting their higher intrinsic sensitivity. Spatial overlap between areas of high physiological risk and high human impacts, together with evidence of low past rates of evolution in upper thermal tolerance, highlights the urgency of global conservation actions and policy initiatives if harmful climate effects on the world’s fishes are to be mitigated in the future.

  16. Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

  17. Extended quantification of the generalized recurrence plot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedl, Maik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    The generalized recurrence plot is a modern tool for quantification of complex spatial patterns. Its application spans the analysis of trabecular bone structures, Turing structures, turbulent spatial plankton patterns, and fractals. But, it is also successfully applied to the description of spatio-temporal dynamics and the detection of regime shifts, such as in the complex Ginzburg-Landau- equation. The recurrence plot based determinism is a central measure in this framework quantifying the level of regularities in temporal and spatial structures. We extend this measure for the generalized recurrence plot considering additional operations of symmetry than the simple translation. It is tested not only on two-dimensional regular patterns and noise but also on complex spatial patterns reconstructing the parameter space of the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation. The extended version of the determinism resulted in values which are consistent to the original recurrence plot approach. Furthermore, the proposed method allows a split of the determinism into parts which based on laminar and non-laminar regions of the two-dimensional pattern of the complex Ginzburg-Landau-equation. A comparison of these parts with a standard method of image classification, the co-occurrence matrix approach, shows differences especially in the description of patterns associated with turbulence. In that case, it seems that the extended version of the determinism allows a distinction of phase turbulence and defect turbulence by means of their spatial patterns. This ability of the proposed method promise new insights in other systems with turbulent dynamics coming from climatology, biology, ecology, and social sciences, for example.

  18. Vulnerability of network of networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Havlin, S.; Kenett, D. Y.; Bashan, A.; Gao, J.; Stanley, H. E.

    2014-10-01

    Our dependence on networks - be they infrastructure, economic, social or others - leaves us prone to crises caused by the vulnerabilities of these networks. There is a great need to develop new methods to protect infrastructure networks and prevent cascade of failures (especially in cases of coupled networks). Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How, and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against malicious attacks? The gradual increase in attacks on the networks society depends on - Internet, mobile phone, transportation, air travel, banking, etc. - emphasize the need to develop new strategies to protect and defend these crucial networks of communication and infrastructure networks. One example is the threat of liquid explosives a few years ago, which completely shut down air travel for days, and has created extreme changes in regulations. Such threats and dangers warrant the need for new tools and strategies to defend critical infrastructure. In this paper we review recent advances in the theoretical understanding of the vulnerabilities of interdependent networks with and without spatial embedding, attack strategies and their affect on such networks of networks as well as recently developed strategies to optimize and repair failures caused by such attacks.

  19. [Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

    PubMed

    Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

    2011-11-01

    Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

  20. A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pascale, S.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.

    2010-07-01

    The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability. This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency. This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases: 1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard; 2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system; 3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability in landslide-prone areas. To

  1. A GIS-based DRASTIC model for assessing intrinsic groundwater vulnerability in northeastern Missan governorate, southern Iraq

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Abadi, Alaa M.; Al-Shamma'a, Ayser M.; Aljabbari, Mukdad H.

    2017-03-01

    In this study, intrinsic groundwater vulnerability for the shallow aquifer in northeastern Missan governorate, south of Iraq is evaluated using commonly used DRASTIC model in framework of GIS environment. Preparation of DRASTIC parameters is attained through gathering data from different sources including field survey, geological and meteorological data, a digital elevation model DEM of the study area, archival database, and published research. The different data used to build DRASTIC model are arranged in a geospatial database using spatial analyst extension of ArcGIS 10.2 software. The obtained results related to the vulnerability to general contaminants show that the study area is characterized by two vulnerability zones: low and moderate. Ninety-four percentage (94 %) of the study area has a low class of groundwater vulnerability to contamination, whereas a total of (6 %) of the study area has moderate vulnerability. The pesticides DRASTIC index map shows that the study area is also characterized by two zones of vulnerability: low and moderate. The DRASTIC map of this version clearly shows that small percentage (13 %) of the study area has low vulnerability to contamination, and most parts have moderate vulnerability (about 87 %). The final results indicate that the aquifer system in the interested area is relatively protected from contamination on the groundwater surface. To mitigate the contamination risks in the moderate vulnerability zones, a protective measure must be put before exploiting the aquifer and before comprehensive agricultural activities begin in the area.

  2. Factor weighting in DRASTIC modelling for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in Salatiga groundwater basin, Central Java Province, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesuma, D. A.; Purwanto, P.; Putranto, T. T.; Rahmani, T. P. D.

    2017-06-01

    The increase in human population as well as area development in Salatiga Groundwater Basin, Central Java Province, will increase the potency of groundwater contamination in that area. Groundwater quality, especially the shallow groundwater, is very vulnerable to the contamination from industrial waste, fertilizer/agricultural waste, and domestic waste. The first step in the conservation of groundwater quality is by conducting the mapping of the groundwater vulnerability zonation against the contamination. The result of this research was groundwater vulnerability map which showed the areas vulnerable to the groundwater contamination. In this study, groundwater vulnerability map was assessed based on the DRASTIC Method and was processed spatially using Geographic Information System. The DRASTIC method is used to assess the level of groundwater vulnerability based on weighting on seven parameters, which are: depth to the water table (D), recharge (R), aquifer material (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The higher the DRASTIC Index will result in the higher vulnerability level of groundwater contamination in that area. The DRASTIC Indexes in the researched area were 85 - 100 (low vulnerability level), 101 -120 (low to moderate vulnerability level), 121 - 140 (moderate vulnerability level), 141 - 150, (moderate to high vulnerability level), and 151 - 159 (high vulnerability level). The output of this study can be used by local authority as a tool for consideration to arrange the policy for sustainable area development, especially the development in an area affecting the quality of Salatiga Groundwater Basin.

  3. Computational analysis of PET by AIBL (CapAIBL): a cloud-based processing pipeline for the quantification of PET images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgeat, Pierrick; Dore, Vincent; Fripp, Jurgen; Villemagne, Victor L.; Rowe, Chris C.; Salvado, Olivier

    2015-03-01

    With the advances of PET tracers for β-Amyloid (Aβ) detection in neurodegenerative diseases, automated quantification methods are desirable. For clinical use, there is a great need for PET-only quantification method, as MR images are not always available. In this paper, we validate a previously developed PET-only quantification method against MR-based quantification using 6 tracers: 18F-Florbetaben (N=148), 18F-Florbetapir (N=171), 18F-NAV4694 (N=47), 18F-Flutemetamol (N=180), 11C-PiB (N=381) and 18F-FDG (N=34). The results show an overall mean absolute percentage error of less than 5% for each tracer. The method has been implemented as a remote service called CapAIBL (http://milxcloud.csiro.au/capaibl). PET images are uploaded to a cloud platform where they are spatially normalised to a standard template and quantified. A report containing global as well as local quantification, along with surface projection of the β-Amyloid deposition is automatically generated at the end of the pipeline and emailed to the user.

  4. [Effects of land use change on landscape pattern vulnerability in Yinchuan Basin, Northwest China].

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhi-yuan; Zhang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Landscape pattern vulnerability reflects the instability and sensitivity of ecological system to external disturbances and helps to understand the status and trend of ecological environment. This paper used landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability index to construct the landscape pattern vulnerability index of Yinchuan Basin, and got the distribution of the landscape pattern vulnerability in 2001 and 2013. Our study explored the effect of the land use degree composite index, the integrated land use dynamic degree, the importance index of land use change and various types of land transfer on landscape pattern vulnerability. Results showed that the land use degree composite index was mainly caused by the increase of the arable land, forest and the construction land. The higher proportion of the arable land or forest, the lower the vulnerability was, and the construction land had the opposite effect. With the increase of integrated land use dynamic degree, the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability, followed by grassland, and the forest significantly decreased the vulnerability, followed by the arable land. As the importance index of land use change increasing, the arable land could significantly decrease the vulnerability, followed by the forest, the grassland had a weaker trend with no obvious pattern, and the construction land significantly increased the vulnerability. When the arable land, forest and the grassland were the maintypes of land use transfer, the increasing proportion of the construction land increased the vulnerability. When the construction land was the main type of land use transfer, the grassland and forest improved the vulnerability and the arable land had the opposite effect. Changes in the number of land use types influenced the spatial structure of land use to a certain extent, which could offer a reference on using and developing the land resources scientifically. The ternary diagram could reflect the impact

  5. Resolution and quantification accuracy enhancement of functional delay and sum beamforming for three-dimensional acoustic source identification with solid spherical arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Zhigang; Yang, Yang; Shen, Linbang

    2017-05-01

    Functional delay and sum (FDAS) is a novel beamforming algorithm introduced for the three-dimensional (3D) acoustic source identification with solid spherical microphone arrays. Being capable of offering significantly attenuated sidelobes with a fast speed, the algorithm promises to play an important role in interior acoustic source identification. However, it presents some intrinsic imperfections, specifically poor spatial resolution and low quantification accuracy. This paper focuses on conquering these imperfections by ridge detection (RD) and deconvolution approach for the mapping of acoustic sources (DAMAS). The suggested methods are referred to as FDAS+RD and FDAS+RD+DAMAS. Both computer simulations and experiments are utilized to validate their effects. Several interesting conclusions have emerged: (1) FDAS+RD and FDAS+RD+DAMAS both can dramatically ameliorate FDAS's spatial resolution and at the same time inherit its advantages. (2) Compared to the conventional DAMAS, FDAS+RD+DAMAS enjoys the same super spatial resolution, stronger sidelobe attenuation capability and more than two hundred times faster speed. (3) FDAS+RD+DAMAS can effectively conquer FDAS's low quantification accuracy. Whether the focus distance is equal to the distance from the source to the array center or not, it can quantify the source average pressure contribution accurately. This study will be of great significance to the accurate and quick localization and quantification of acoustic sources in cabin environments.

  6. How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

    2015-04-01

    The databases of Swiss flood insurance companies build a valuable but to date rarely used source of information on physical flood vulnerability. Detailed insights into the Swiss flood insurance system are crucial for using the full potential of the different databases for research on flood vulnerability. Insurance against floods in Switzerland is a federal system, the modalities are manly regulated on cantonal level. However there are some common principles that apply throughout Switzerland. First of all coverage against floods (and other particular natural hazards) is an integral part of every fire insurance policy for buildings or contents. This coupling of insurance as well as the statutory obligation to insure buildings in most of the cantons and movables in some of the cantons lead to a very high penetration. Second, in case of damage, the reinstatement costs (value as new) are compensated and third there are no (or little) deductible and co-pay. High penetration and the fact that the compensations represent a large share of the direct, tangible losses of the individual policy holders make the databases of the flood insurance companies a comprehensive and therefore valuable data source for flood vulnerability research. Insurance companies not only store electronically data about losses (typically date, amount of claims payment, cause of damage, identity of the insured object or policyholder) but also about insured objects. For insured objects the (insured) value and the details on the policy and its holder are the main feature to record. On buildings the insurance companies usually computerize additional information such as location, volume, year of construction or purpose of use. For the 19 (of total 26) cantons with a cantonal monopoly insurer the data of these insurance establishments have the additional value to represent (almost) the entire building stock of the respective canton. Spatial referenced insurance data can be used for many aspects of

  7. Mapping cropping patterns in irrigated rice fields in West Java: Towards mapping vulnerability to flooding using time-series MODIS imageries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sianturi, Riswan; Jetten, V. G.; Sartohadi, Junun

    2018-04-01

    Information on the vulnerability to flooding is vital to understand the potential damages from flood events. A method to determine the vulnerability to flooding in irrigated rice fields using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was proposed in this study. In doing so, the time-series EVI derived from time-series 8 day 500 m spatial resolution MODIS imageries (MOD09A1) was used to generate cropping patterns in irrigated rice fields in West Java. Cropping patterns were derived from the spatial distribution and phenology metrics so that it is possible to show the variation of vulnerability in space and time. Vulnerability curves and cropping patterns were used to determine the vulnerability to flooding in irrigated rice fields. Cropping patterns capture the shift in the vulnerability, which may lead to either an increase or decrease of the degree of damage in rice fields of origin and other rice fields. The comparison of rice field areas between MOD09A1 and ALOS PALSAR and MOD09A1 and Agricultural Statistics showed consistent results with R2 = 0.81 and R2 = 0.93, respectively. The estimated and observed DOYs showed RMSEs = 9.21, 9.29, and 9.69 days for the Start of Season (SOS), heading stage, and End of Season (EOS), respectively. Using the method, one can estimate the relative damage provided available information on the flood depth and velocity. The results of the study may support the efforts to reduce the potential damages from flooding in irrigated rice fields.

  8. Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

    Treesearch

    Patrick Gonzalez; Ronald P. Neilson; James M. Lenihan; Raymond J. Drapek

    2010-01-01

    Climate change threatens to shift vegetation, disrupting ecosystems and damaging human well-being. Field observations in boreal, temperate and tropical ecosystems have detected biome changes in the 20th century, yet a lack of spatial data on vulnerability hinders organizations that manage natural resources from identifying priority areas for adaptation measures. We...

  9. Noninvasive Measurement of Vulnerability to Drought-Induced Embolism by X-Ray Microtomography1

    PubMed Central

    Choat, Brendan; Cochard, Herve; Jansen, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Hydraulic failure induced by xylem embolism is one of the primary mechanisms of plant dieback during drought. However, many of the methods used to evaluate the vulnerability of different species to drought-induced embolism are indirect and invasive, increasing the possibility that measurement artifacts may occur. Here, we utilize x-ray computed microtomography (microCT) to directly visualize embolism formation in the xylem of living, intact plants with contrasting wood anatomy (Quercus robur, Populus tremula × Populus alba, and Pinus pinaster). These observations were compared with widely used centrifuge techniques that require destructive sampling. MicroCT imaging provided detailed spatial information regarding the dimensions and functional status of xylem conduits during dehydration. Vulnerability curves based on microCT observations of intact plants closely matched curves based on the centrifuge technique for species with short vessels (P. tremula × P. alba) or tracheids (P. pinaster). For ring porous Q. robur, the centrifuge technique significantly overestimated vulnerability to embolism, indicating that caution should be used when applying this technique to species with long vessels. These findings confirm that microCT can be used to assess the vulnerability to embolism on intact plants by direct visualization. PMID:26527655

  10. Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) methods for endpoint and real-time quantification of miRNA assays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Restaino, Stephen M.; White, Ian M.

    2017-03-01

    Surface Enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) provides significant improvements over conventional methods for single and multianalyte quantification. Specifically, the spectroscopic fingerprint provided by Raman scattering allows for a direct multiplexing potential far beyond that of fluorescence and colorimetry. Additionally, SERS generates a comparatively low financial and spatial footprint compared with common fluorescence based systems. Despite the advantages of SERS, it has remained largely an academic pursuit. In the field of biosensing, techniques to apply SERS to molecular diagnostics are constantly under development but, most often, assay protocols are redesigned around the use of SERS as a quantification method and ultimately complicate existing protocols. Our group has sought to rethink common SERS methodologies in order to produce translational technologies capable of allowing SERS to compete in the evolving, yet often inflexible biosensing field. This work will discuss the development of two techniques for quantification of microRNA, a promising biomarker for homeostatic and disease conditions ranging from cancer to HIV. First, an inkjet-printed paper SERS sensor has been developed to allow on-demand production of a customizable and multiplexable single-step lateral flow assay for miRNA quantification. Second, as miRNA concentrations commonly exist in relatively low concentrations, amplification methods (e.g. PCR) are therefore required to facilitate quantification. This work presents a novel miRNA assay alongside a novel technique for quantification of nuclease driven nucleic acid amplification strategies that will allow SERS to be used directly with common amplification strategies for quantification of miRNA and other nucleic acid biomarkers.

  11. Reproducibility study of whole-brain 1H spectroscopic imaging with automated quantification.

    PubMed

    Gu, Meng; Kim, Dong-Hyun; Mayer, Dirk; Sullivan, Edith V; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Spielman, Daniel M

    2008-09-01

    A reproducibility study of proton MR spectroscopic imaging ((1)H-MRSI) of the human brain was conducted to evaluate the reliability of an automated 3D in vivo spectroscopic imaging acquisition and associated quantification algorithm. A PRESS-based pulse sequence was implemented using dualband spectral-spatial RF pulses designed to fully excite the singlet resonances of choline (Cho), creatine (Cre), and N-acetyl aspartate (NAA) while simultaneously suppressing water and lipids; 1% of the water signal was left to be used as a reference signal for robust data processing, and additional lipid suppression was obtained using adiabatic inversion recovery. Spiral k-space trajectories were used for fast spectral and spatial encoding yielding high-quality spectra from 1 cc voxels throughout the brain with a 13-min acquisition time. Data were acquired with an 8-channel phased-array coil and optimal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for the combined signals was achieved using a weighting based on the residual water signal. Automated quantification of the spectrum of each voxel was performed using LCModel. The complete study consisted of eight healthy adult subjects to assess intersubject variations and two subjects scanned six times each to assess intrasubject variations. The results demonstrate that reproducible whole-brain (1)H-MRSI data can be robustly obtained with the proposed methods.

  12. The influence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors on the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti larval habitats.

    PubMed

    De Azevedo, Thiago S; Bourke, Brian Patrick; Piovezan, Rafael; Sallum, Maria Anice M

    2018-05-08

    We addressed the potential associations among the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, the presence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors. Data on larval habitats were collected in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2006, and spatial and temporal variations were analysed using a wavelet-based approach. We quantified urban heat islands by calculating surface temperatures using the results of wavelet analyses and grey level transformation from Thematic Mapper images (Landsat 5). Ae. aegypti larval habitats were geo-referenced corresponding to the wavelet analyses to test the potential association between geographical distribution of habitats and surface temperature. In an inhomogeneous spatial point process, we estimated the frequency of occurrence of larval habitats in relation to temperature. The São Paulo State Social Vulnerability Index in the municipality of Santa Barbára d'Oeste was used to test the potential association between presence of larval habitats and social vulnerability. We found abundant Ae. aegypti larval habitats in areas of higher surface temperature and social vulnerability and fewer larval habitats in areas with lower surface temperature and social vulnerability.

  13. Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

    PubMed

    Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

    2010-05-01

    Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Noninvasive Measurement of Vulnerability to Drought-Induced Embolism by X-Ray Microtomography.

    PubMed

    Choat, Brendan; Badel, Eric; Burlett, Regis; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Herve; Jansen, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Hydraulic failure induced by xylem embolism is one of the primary mechanisms of plant dieback during drought. However, many of the methods used to evaluate the vulnerability of different species to drought-induced embolism are indirect and invasive, increasing the possibility that measurement artifacts may occur. Here, we utilize x-ray computed microtomography (microCT) to directly visualize embolism formation in the xylem of living, intact plants with contrasting wood anatomy (Quercus robur, Populus tremula × Populus alba, and Pinus pinaster). These observations were compared with widely used centrifuge techniques that require destructive sampling. MicroCT imaging provided detailed spatial information regarding the dimensions and functional status of xylem conduits during dehydration. Vulnerability curves based on microCT observations of intact plants closely matched curves based on the centrifuge technique for species with short vessels (P. tremula × P. alba) or tracheids (P. pinaster). For ring porous Q. robur, the centrifuge technique significantly overestimated vulnerability to embolism, indicating that caution should be used when applying this technique to species with long vessels. These findings confirm that microCT can be used to assess the vulnerability to embolism on intact plants by direct visualization. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  15. Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

    2018-05-01

    The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. [Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

    PubMed

    Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

    2014-02-01

    To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

  17. Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Erosion in Northwest Alaska (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorokhovich, Y.; Leiserowitz, A.

    2009-12-01

    Northwest Alaska is experiencing significant climate change and human impacts. The study area includes the coastal zone of Kotzebue Sound and the Chukchi Sea and provides the local population (predominantly Inupiaq Eskimo) with critical subsistence resources of meat, fish, berries, herbs, and wood. The geomorphology of the coast includes barrier islands, inlets, estuaries, deltas, cliffs, bluffs, and beaches that host modern settlements and infrastructure. Coastal dynamics and sea-level rise are contributing to erosion, intermittent erosion/accretion patterns, landslides, slumps and coastal retreat. These factors are causing the sedimentation of deltas and lagoons, and changing local bathymetry, morphological parameters of beaches and underwater slopes, rates of coastal dynamics, and turbidity and nutrient cycling in coastal waters. This study is constructing vulnerability maps to help local people and federal officials understand the potential consequences of sea-level rise and coastal erosion on local infrastructure, subsistence resources, and culturally important sites. A lack of complete and uniform data (in terms of methods of collection, geographic scale and spatial resolution) creates an additional level of uncertainty that complicates geographic analysis. These difficulties were overcome by spatial modeling with selected spatial resolution using extrapolation methods. Data include subsistence resource maps obtained using Participatory GIS with local hunters and elders, geological and geographic data on coastal dynamics from satellite imagery, aerial photos, bathymetry and topographic maps, and digital elevation models. These data were classified and ranked according to the level of coastal vulnerability (Figure 1). The resulting qualitative multicriteria model helps to identify the coastal areas with the greatest vulnerability to coastal erosion and of the potential loss of subsistence resources. Acknowldgements: Dr. Ron Abileah (private consultant, j

  18. Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

    2017-09-01

    The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.

  19. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

    2017-02-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Improving interprofessional practice for vulnerable older people: gaining a better understanding of vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Abley, Clare; Bond, John; Robinson, Louise

    2011-09-01

    A key focus for professionals working with older people in the community is on those who are vulnerable, although this vulnerability is not well defined. This study sought the views of health and social care professionals and older people on vulnerability, identifying significant differences between professional and older people's perspectives. It found that for older people, vulnerability is an emotional response to being in a specific situation, whereas for professionals, the vulnerability of those on their case loads relates to them having certain or a combination of characteristics (physical, psychological and social). The paper concludes that interprofessional care for older people in the community could be improved firstly by asking older people if they ever feel vulnerable and if so, in what situations and secondly by focusing team efforts on addressing the issues raised by older people in response to these questions.

  1. Individual stress vulnerability is predicted by short-term memory and AMPA receptor subunit ratio in the hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Mathias V; Trümbach, Dietrich; Weber, Peter; Wagner, Klaus; Scharf, Sebastian H; Liebl, Claudia; Datson, Nicole; Namendorf, Christian; Gerlach, Tamara; Kühne, Claudia; Uhr, Manfred; Deussing, Jan M; Wurst, Wolfgang; Binder, Elisabeth B; Holsboer, Florian; Müller, Marianne B

    2010-12-15

    Increased vulnerability to aversive experiences is one of the main risk factors for stress-related psychiatric disorders as major depression. However, the molecular bases of vulnerability, on the one hand, and stress resilience, on the other hand, are still not understood. Increasing clinical and preclinical evidence suggests a central involvement of the glutamatergic system in the pathogenesis of major depression. Using a mouse paradigm, modeling increased stress vulnerability and depression-like symptoms in a genetically diverse outbred strain, and we tested the hypothesis that differences in AMPA receptor function may be linked to individual variations in stress vulnerability. Vulnerable and resilient animals differed significantly in their dorsal hippocampal AMPA receptor expression and AMPA receptor binding. Treatment with an AMPA receptor potentiator during the stress exposure prevented the lasting effects of chronic social stress exposure on physiological, neuroendocrine, and behavioral parameters. In addition, spatial short-term memory, an AMPA receptor-dependent behavior, was found to be predictive of individual stress vulnerability and response to AMPA potentiator treatment. Finally, we provide evidence that genetic variations in the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 are linked to the vulnerable phenotype. Therefore, we propose genetic variations in the AMPA receptor system to shape individual stress vulnerability. Those individual differences can be predicted by the assessment of short-term memory, thereby opening up the possibility for a specific treatment by enhancing AMPA receptor function.

  2. Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

  3. Are flowers vulnerable to xylem cavitation during drought?

    PubMed

    Zhang, Feng-Ping; Brodribb, Timothy J

    2017-05-17

    Water stress is known to cause xylem cavitation in the leaves, roots and stems of plants, but little is known about the vulnerability of flowers to xylem damage during drought. This is an important gap in our understanding of how and when plants become damaged by water stress. Here we address fundamental questions about if and when flowers suffer cavitation damage, using a new technique of cavitation imaging to resolve the timing of cavitation in water-stressed flower petals compared with neighbouring leaves. Leaves and flowers from a sample of two herbaceous and two woody eudicots were exposed to a severe water stress while the spatial and temporal propagation of embolism through veins was recorded. Although in most cases water potentials inducing 50% embolism of herbaceous flower veins were more negative than neighbouring leaves, there was no significant difference between the average vulnerability of leaves and petals of herbaceous species. In both woody species, petals were more vulnerable to cavitation than leaves, in one case by more than 3 MPa. Early cavitation and subsequent damage of flowers in the two woody species would thus be expected to precede leaf damage during drought. Similar cavitation thresholds of flowers and leaves in the herb sample suggest that cavitation during water shortage in these species will occur simultaneously among aerial tissues. Species-specific differences in the cavitation thresholds of petals provide a new axis of variation that may explain contrasting flowering ecology among plant species. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature-Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B

    2017-01-01

    Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75;

  5. Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature–Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. Objectives: We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Methods: Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998–2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. Results: The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Conclusions: Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature-–mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature–mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater

  6. Vulnerability Analysis and Passenger Source Prediction in Urban Rail Transit Networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Junjie; Li, Yishuai; Liu, Jingyu; He, Kun; Wang, Pu

    2013-01-01

    Based on large-scale human mobility data collected in San Francisco and Boston, the morning peak urban rail transit (URT) ODs (origin-destination matrix) were estimated and the most vulnerable URT segments, those capable of causing the largest service interruptions, were identified. In both URT networks, a few highly vulnerable segments were observed. For this small group of vital segments, the impact of failure must be carefully evaluated. A bipartite URT usage network was developed and used to determine the inherent connections between urban rail transits and their passengers' travel demands. Although passengers' origins and destinations were easy to locate for a large number of URT segments, a few show very complicated spatial distributions. Based on the bipartite URT usage network, a new layer of the understanding of a URT segment's vulnerability can be achieved by taking the difficulty of addressing the failure of a given segment into account. Two proof-of-concept cases are described here: Possible transfer of passenger flow to the road network is here predicted in the cases of failures of two representative URT segments in San Francisco. PMID:24260355

  7. GIS Analysis of Changes in Ecological Vulnerability Using a SPCA Model in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Hou; Xuxiang, Li; Jing, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Changes in ecological vulnerability were analyzed for Northern Shaanxi, China using a geographic information system (GIS). An evaluation model was developed using a spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) model containing land use, soil erosion, topography, climate, vegetation and social economy variables. Using this model, an ecological vulnerability index was computed for the research region. Using natural breaks classification (NBC), the evaluation results were divided into five types: potential, slight, light, medium and heavy. The results indicate that there is greater than average optimism about the conditions of the study region, and the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of the southern eight counties is lower than that of the northern twelve counties. From 1997 to 2011, the ecological vulnerability index gradually decreased, which means that environmental security was gradually enhanced, although there are still some places that have gradually deteriorated over the past 15 years. In the study area, government and economic factors and precipitation are the main reasons for the changes in ecological vulnerability. PMID:25898407

  8. Vulnerable populations in healthcare.

    PubMed

    Waisel, David B

    2013-04-01

    This review is designed to update readers on recent discussions and research regarding vulnerable populations in medicine, including patients who are socioeconomically disadvantaged, queer, in prison or labeled with a stigmatizing complex medical disease. Recent studies have more closely examined the effects of being part of a vulnerable population. Greater societal income inequality impacts those at the lower end of the income curve by increasing mortality and heightening the importance of individual personal situations. Recommendations from an extensive WHO report on the social determinants of health may affect social policy and use of public resources in Europe. Clinicians are undereducated about the lives and concerns of vulnerable populations, including LGBTQI persons, immigrants, physicians, prisoners, and families of patients with diseases considered 'incompatible with life'. Greater understanding of the cause of the health effects of being socioeconomically disadvantaged or being a member of a vulnerable population may be the first steps toward specific policy recommendations. Professional medical organizations and advocacy groups should raise awareness, provide education, publish guidelines and define the goals for the medical care for certain vulnerable populations.Vulnerable populations are at risk for disparate healthcare access and outcomes because of economic, cultural, ethnic or health characteristics. Vulnerable populations include patients who are racial or ethnic minorities, children, elderly, socioeconomically disadvantaged, underinsured or those with certain medical conditions. Members of vulnerable populations often have health conditions that are exacerbated by unnecessarily inadequate healthcare.

  9. Vulnerable to HIV / AIDS. Migration.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, I

    1998-01-01

    This special report discusses the impact of globalization, patterns of migration in Southeast Asia, gender issues in migration, the links between migration and HIV/AIDS, and spatial mobility and social networks. Migrants are particularly marginalized in countries that blame migrants for transmission of infectious and communicable diseases and other social ills. Effective control of HIV/AIDS among migrant and native populations requires a multisectoral approach. Programs should critically review the privatization of health care services and challenge economic models that polarize the rich and the poor, men and women, North and South, and migrant and native. Programs should recognize the equality between locals and migrants in receipt of health services. Countermeasures should have input from migrants in order to reduce the conditions that increase vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. Gender-oriented research is needed to understand women's role in migration. Rapid assessment has obscured the human dimension of migrants' vulnerability to HIV. Condom promotion is not enough. Migration is a major consequence of globalization, which holds the promise, real or imagined, of prosperity for all. Mass migration can be fueled by explosive regional developments. In Southeast Asia, migration has been part of the process of economic development. The potential to emigrate increases with greater per capita income. "Tiger" economies have been labor importers. Safe sex is not practiced in many Asian countries because risk is not taken seriously. Migrants tend to be used as economic tools, without consideration of social adjustment and sex behavior among singles.

  10. Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

    2016-04-01

    vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

  11. Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

    2018-02-01

    Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

  12. Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

    Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

  13. What Does Vulnerability Mean?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parley, Fiona F

    2011-01-01

    Protection of those deemed vulnerable has received increasing attention since 2000. This article reports on care staff views of vulnerability using original data from a research study (Parley. "Vulnerability and abuse: an exploration of views of care staff working with people who have learning disabilities," PhD Thesis, 2007) in which care staff…

  14. Image-based quantification and mathematical modeling of spatial heterogeneity in ESC colonies.

    PubMed

    Herberg, Maria; Zerjatke, Thomas; de Back, Walter; Glauche, Ingmar; Roeder, Ingo

    2015-06-01

    Pluripotent embryonic stem cells (ESCs) have the potential to differentiate into cells of all three germ layers. This unique property has been extensively studied on the intracellular, transcriptional level. However, ESCs typically form clusters of cells with distinct size and shape, and establish spatial structures that are vital for the maintenance of pluripotency. Even though it is recognized that the cells' arrangement and local interactions play a role in fate decision processes, the relations between transcriptional and spatial patterns have not yet been studied. We present a systems biology approach which combines live-cell imaging, quantitative image analysis, and multiscale, mathematical modeling of ESC growth. In particular, we develop quantitative measures of the morphology and of the spatial clustering of ESCs with different expression levels and apply them to images of both in vitro and in silico cultures. Using the same measures, we are able to compare model scenarios with different assumptions on cell-cell adhesions and intercellular feedback mechanisms directly with experimental data. Applying our methodology to microscopy images of cultured ESCs, we demonstrate that the emerging colonies are highly variable regarding both morphological and spatial fluorescence patterns. Moreover, we can show that most ESC colonies contain only one cluster of cells with high self-renewing capacity. These cells are preferentially located in the interior of a colony structure. The integrated approach combining image analysis with mathematical modeling allows us to reveal potential transcription factor related cellular and intercellular mechanisms behind the emergence of observed patterns that cannot be derived from images directly. © 2015 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

  15. Spatial resolution properties of motion-compensated tomographic image reconstruction methods.

    PubMed

    Chun, Se Young; Fessler, Jeffrey A

    2012-07-01

    Many motion-compensated image reconstruction (MCIR) methods have been proposed to correct for subject motion in medical imaging. MCIR methods incorporate motion models to improve image quality by reducing motion artifacts and noise. This paper analyzes the spatial resolution properties of MCIR methods and shows that nonrigid local motion can lead to nonuniform and anisotropic spatial resolution for conventional quadratic regularizers. This undesirable property is akin to the known effects of interactions between heteroscedastic log-likelihoods (e.g., Poisson likelihood) and quadratic regularizers. This effect may lead to quantification errors in small or narrow structures (such as small lesions or rings) of reconstructed images. This paper proposes novel spatial regularization design methods for three different MCIR methods that account for known nonrigid motion. We develop MCIR regularization designs that provide approximately uniform and isotropic spatial resolution and that match a user-specified target spatial resolution. Two-dimensional PET simulations demonstrate the performance and benefits of the proposed spatial regularization design methods.

  16. Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Cung, E. S.

    2014-09-01

    This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines VIKOR method with fuzzified data to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multi-criteria evaluation indicators. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. Triangular fuzzy numbers are used to consider the uncertainty of weights and the crisp data of proxy variables. This approach can effectively propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the south Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the results from general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods, such as those developed by Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland. The evaluated priorities were significantly dependent on the employed decision-making method. The proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

  17. Geospatial approach for assessment of biophysical vulnerability to agricultural drought and its intra-seasonal variations.

    PubMed

    Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar

    2016-03-01

    The study presents a methodology to assess and map agricultural drought vulnerability during main kharif crop season at local scale and compare its intra-seasonal variations. A conceptual model of vulnerability based on variables of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity was adopted, and spatial datasets of key biophysical factors contributing to vulnerability were generated using remote sensing and GIS for Rajasthan State of India. Hazard exposure was based on frequency and intensity of gridded standardized precipitation index (SPI). Agricultural sensitivity was based on soil water holding capacity as well as on frequency and intensity of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-derived trend adjusted vegetation condition index (VCITadj). Percent irrigated area was used as a measure of adaptive capacity. Agricultural drought vulnerability was derived separately for early, mid, late, and whole kharif seasons by composting rating of factors using linear weighting scheme and pairwise comparison of multi-criteria evaluation. The regions showing very low to extreme rating of hazard exposure, drought sensitivity, and agricultural vulnerability were identified at all four time scales. The results indicate that high to extreme vulnerability occurs in more than 50% of net sown area in the state and such areas mostly occur in western, central, and southern parts. The higher vulnerability is on account of non-irrigated croplands, moderate to low water holding capacity of sandy soils, resulting in higher sensitivity, and located in regions with high probability of rainfall deficiency. The mid and late season vulnerability has been found to be much higher than that during early and whole season. Significant correlation of vulnerability rating with food grain productivity, drought recurrence period, crop area damaged in year 2009 and socioeconomic indicator of human development index (HDI) proves the general soundness of methodology. Replication of this methodology

  18. Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

    PubMed Central

    Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

    2013-01-01

    The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441

  19. Monitoring Seasonal Evapotranspiration in Vulnerable Agriculture using Time Series VHSR Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    The research work stems from the hypothesis that it is possible to perform an estimation of seasonal water needs of olive tree farms under drought periods by cross correlating high spatial, spectral and temporal resolution (~monthly) of satellite data, acquired at well defined time intervals of the phenological cycle of crops, with ground-truth information simultaneously applied during the image acquisitions. The present research is for the first time, demonstrating the coordinated efforts of space engineers, satellite mission control planners, remote sensing scientists and ground teams to record at specific time intervals of the phenological cycle of trees from ground "zero" and from 770 km above the Earth's surface, the status of plants for subsequent cross correlation and analysis regarding the estimation of the seasonal evapotranspiration in vulnerable agricultural environment. The ETo and ETc derived by Penman-Montieth equation and reference Kc tables, compared with new ETd using the Kc extracted from the time series satellite data. Several vegetation indices were also used especially the RedEdge and the chlorophyll one based on WorldView-2 RedEdge and second NIR bands to relate the tree status with water and nutrition needs. Keywords: Evapotransipration, Very High Spatial Resolution - VHSR, time series, remote sensing, vulnerability, agriculture, vegetation indeces.

  20. Freshwater Vulnerability beyond Local Water Stress: Heterogeneous Effects of Water-Electricity Nexus Across the Continental United States.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ranran; Zimmerman, Julie B; Wang, Chunyan; Font Vivanco, David; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2017-09-05

    Human health and economic prosperity are vulnerable to freshwater shortage in many parts of the world. Despite a growing literature that examines the freshwater vulnerability in various spatiotemporal contexts, existing knowledge has been conventionally constrained by a territorial perspective. On the basis of spatial analyses of monthly water and electricity flows across 2110 watersheds and three interconnected power systems, this study investigates the water-electricity nexus (WEN)'s transboundary effects on freshwater vulnerability in the continental United States in 2014. The effects are shown to be considerable and heterogeneous across time and space. For at least one month a year, 58 million people living in water-abundant watersheds were exposed to additional freshwater vulnerability by relying on electricity generated by freshwater-cooled thermal energy conversion cycles in highly stressed watersheds; for 72 million people living in highly stressed watersheds, their freshwater vulnerability was mitigated by using imported electricity generated in water-abundant watersheds or power plants running dry cooling or using nonfreshwater for cooling purposes. On the country scale, the mitigation effects were the most significant during September and October, while the additional freshwater vulnerability was more significant in February, March, and December. Due to the WEN's transboundary effects, overall, the freshwater vulnerability was slightly worsened within the Eastern Interconnection, substantially improved within the Western Interconnection, and least affected within the ERCOT Interconnection.

  1. Vulnerability of complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2011-01-01

    We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

  2. Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Carvalhaes, Thomaz M.

    Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act asmore » an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.« less

  3. Hilar Interneuron Vulnerability Distinguishes Aged Rats With Memory Impairment

    PubMed Central

    Spiegel, Amy M.; Koh, Ming Teng; Vogt, Nicholas M.; Rapp, Peter R.; Gallagher, Michela

    2016-01-01

    Hippocampal interneuron populations are reportedly vulnerable to normal aging. The relationship between interneuron network integrity and age-related memory impairment, however, has not been tested directly. That question was addressed in the present study using a well-characterized model in which outbred, aged, male Long-Evans rats exhibit a spectrum of individual differences in hippocampal-dependent memory. Selected interneuron populations in the hippocampus were visualized for stereological quantification with a panel of immunocytochemical markers, including glutamic acid decarboxylase-67 (GAD67), somatostatin, and neuropeptide Y. The overall pattern of results was that, although the numbers of GAD67- and somatostatin-positive interneurons declined with age across multiple fields of the hippocampus, alterations specifically related to the cognitive outcome of aging were observed exclusively in the hilus of the dentate gyrus. Because the total number of NeuN-immunoreactive hilar neurons was unaffected, the decline observed with other markers likely reflects a loss of target protein rather than neuron death. In support of that interpretation, treatment with the atypical antiepileptic levetiracetam at a low dose shown previously to improve behavioral performance fully restored hilar SOM expression in aged, memory-impaired rats. Age-related decreases in GAD67- and somatostatin-immunoreactive neuron number beyond the hilus were regionally selective and spared the CA1 field of the hippocampus entirely. Together these findings confirm the vulnerability of hippocampal interneurons to normal aging and highlight that the integrity of a specific subpopulation in the hilus is coupled with age-related memory impairment. PMID:23749483

  4. Vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change moderated by habitat intactness.

    PubMed

    Eigenbrod, Felix; Gonzalez, Patrick; Dash, Jadunandan; Steyl, Ilse

    2015-01-01

    The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48×48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8×4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large-scale refugia is the priority. In human-dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large-scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

    2012-04-01

    Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

  6. Social vulnerability and climate variability in southern Brazil: a TerraPop case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adamo, S. B.; Fitch, C. A.; Kugler, T.; Doxsey-Whitfield, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth's climate, including but not limited to climate change. It affects and impacts human society in different ways, depending on the underlying socioeconomic vulnerability of specific places, social groups, households and individuals. This differential vulnerability presents spatial and temporal variations, and is rooted in historical patterns of development and relations between human and ecological systems. This study aims to assess the impact of climate variability on livelihoods and well-being, as well as their changes over time and across space, and for rural and urban populations. The geographic focus is Southern Brazil-the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul-- and the objectives include (a) to identify and map critical areas or hotspots of exposure to climate variability (temperature and precipitation), and (b) to identify internal variation or differential vulnerability within these areas and its evolution over time (1980-2010), using newly available integrated data from the Terra Populus project. These data include geo-referenced climate and agricultural data, and data describing demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals, households and places.

  7. Biophysical, infrastructural and social heterogeneities explain spatial distribution of waterborne gastrointestinal disease burden in Mexico City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baeza, Andrés; Estrada-Barón, Alejandra; Serrano-Candela, Fidel; Bojórquez, Luis A.; Eakin, Hallie; Escalante, Ana E.

    2018-06-01

    Due to unplanned growth, large extension and limited resources, most megacities in the developing world are vulnerable to hydrological hazards and infectious diseases caused by waterborne pathogens. Here we aim to elucidate the extent of the relation between the spatial heterogeneity of physical and socio-economic factors associated with hydrological hazards (flooding and scarcity) and the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal disease in Mexico City, a megacity with more than 8 million people. We applied spatial statistics and multivariate regression analyses to high resolution records of gastrointestinal diseases during two time frames (2007–2009 and 2010–2014). Results show a pattern of significant association between water flooding events and disease incidence in the city center (lowlands). We also found that in the periphery (highlands), higher incidence is generally associated with household infrastructure deficiency. Our findings suggest the need for integrated and spatially tailored interventions by public works and public health agencies, aimed to manage socio-hydrological vulnerability in Mexico City.

  8. Vulnerable land ecosystems classification using spatial context and spectral indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarrola-Ulzurrun, Edurne; Gonzalo-Martín, Consuelo; Marcello, Javier

    2017-10-01

    Natural habitats are exposed to growing pressure due to intensification of land use and tourism development. Thus, obtaining information on the vegetation is necessary for conservation and management projects. In this context, remote sensing is an important tool for monitoring and managing habitats, being classification a crucial stage. The majority of image classifications techniques are based upon the pixel-based approach. An alternative is the object-based (OBIA) approach, in which a previous segmentation step merges image pixels to create objects that are then classified. Besides, improved results may be gained by incorporating additional spatial information and specific spectral indices into the classification process. The main goal of this work was to implement and assess object-based classification techniques on very-high resolution imagery incorporating spectral indices and contextual spatial information in the classification models. The study area was Teide National Park in Canary Islands (Spain) using Worldview-2 orthoready imagery. In the classification model, two common indices were selected Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Optimized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI), as well as two specific Worldview-2 sensor indices, Worldview Vegetation Index and Worldview Soil Index. To include the contextual information, Grey Level Co-occurrence Matrices (GLCM) were used. The classification was performed training a Support Vector Machine with sufficient and representative number of vegetation samples (Spartocytisus supranubius, Pterocephalus lasiospermus, Descurainia bourgaeana and Pinus canariensis) as well as urban, road and bare soil classes. Confusion Matrices were computed to evaluate the results from each classification model obtaining the highest overall accuracy (90.07%) combining both Worldview indices with the GLCM-dissimilarity.

  9. Multiscale Structure of UXO Site Characterization: Spatial Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ostrouchov, George; Doll, William E.; Beard, Les P.

    2009-01-01

    Unexploded ordnance (UXO) site characterization must consider both how the contamination is generated and how we observe that contamination. Within the generation and observation processes, dependence structures can be exploited at multiple scales. We describe a conceptual site characterization process, the dependence structures available at several scales, and consider their statistical estimation aspects. It is evident that most of the statistical methods that are needed to address the estimation problems are known but their application-specific implementation may not be available. We demonstrate estimation at one scale and propose a representation for site contamination intensity that takes full account of uncertainty,more » is flexible enough to answer regulatory requirements, and is a practical tool for managing detailed spatial site characterization and remediation. The representation is based on point process spatial estimation methods that require modern computational resources for practical application. These methods have provisions for including prior and covariate information.« less

  10. Quantification of surface emissions: An historical perspective from GEIA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granier, C.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Doumbia, E. H. T.; Frost, G. J.; Guenther, A. B.; Hassler, B.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Lasslop, G.; Melamed, M. L.; Middleton, P.; Sindelarova, K.; Tarrason, L.; van Marle, M.; W Kaiser, J.; van der Werf, G.

    2015-12-01

    Assessments of the composition of the atmosphere and its evolution require accurate knowledge of the surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. The first community development of global surface emissions started in 1990, when GEIA was established as a component of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project. At that time, GEIA meant "Global Emissions Inventory Activity". Since its inception, GEIA has brought together people to understand emissions from anthropogenic, biomass burning and natural sources. The first goal of GEIA was to establish a "best" inventory for the base year 1985 at 1x1 degree resolution. Since then many inventories have been developed by various groups at the global and regional scale at different temporal and spatial resolutions. GEIA, which now means the "Global Emissions Initiative", has evolved into assessing, harmonizing and distributing emissions datasets. We will review the main achievements of GEIA, and show how the development and evaluation of surface emissions has evolved during the last 25 years. We will discuss the use of surface, in-situ and remote sensing observations to evaluate and improve the quantification of emissions. We will highlight the main uncertainties currently limiting emissions datasets, such as the spatial and temporal evolution of emissions at different resolutions, the quantification of emerging emission sources (such as oil/gas extraction and distribution, biofuels, etc.), the speciation of the emissions of volatile organic compounds and of particulate matter, the capacity building necessary for organizing the development of regional emissions across the world, emissions from shipping, etc. We will present the ECCAD (Emissions of Atmospheric Compounds and Compilation of Ancillary Data) database, developed as part of GEIA to facilitate the access and evaluation of emission inventories.

  11. Quantification of optical absorption coefficient from acoustic spectra in the optical diffusive regime using photoacoustic microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Zijian; Favazza, Christopher; Wang, Lihong V.

    2012-02-01

    Photoacoustic (PA) tomography (PAT) can image optical absorption contrast with ultrasonic spatial resolution in the optical diffusive regime. Multi-wavelength PAT can noninvasively monitor hemoglobin oxygen saturation (sO2) with high sensitivity and fine spatial resolution. However, accurate quantification in PAT requires knowledge of the optical fluence distribution, acoustic wave attenuation, and detection system bandwidth. We propose a method to circumvent this requirement using acoustic spectra of PA signals acquired at two optical wavelengths. With the acoustic spectral method, the absorption coefficients of an oxygenated bovine blood phantom at 560 and 575 nm were quantified with errors of ><5%.

  12. Analysis of bathymetric surveys to identify coastal vulnerabilities at Cape Canaveral, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hansen, Mark E.

    2015-10-07

    The purpose of this work is to describe an updated bathymetric dataset collected in 2014 and compare it to previous datasets. The updated data focus on the bathymetric features and sediment transport pathways that connect the offshore regions to the shoreline and, therefore, are related to the protection of other portions of the coastal environment, such as dunes, that support infrastructure and ecosystems. Previous survey data include National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) hydrographic survey from 1956 and a USGS survey from 2010 that is augmented with NOS surveys from 2006 and 2007. The primary result of this analysis is documentation and quantification of the nature and rates of bathymetric changes that are near (within about 2.5 km) the current Cape Canaveral shoreline and interpretation of the impact of these changes on future erosion vulnerability.

  13. Social vulnerability in the flood-prone anthropogenic landscape of Northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roder, Giulia; Sofia, Giulia; Wu, Zhifeng; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The practices for reducing the impacts of floods are becoming more and more advanced, centred to the communities and reached out to vulnerable populations. Vulnerable individuals are characterised by different social and economic attributes that can alter their capacity to cope with disaster events. The Social Vulnerability Index (Cutter et al. 2003) provides an empirical basis to compare social variances in different spatial scenarios and environmental threats. This methodology has been readjusted to the flood-prone anthropogenic landscape of Northern Italy adapted to the societal and historical construction of this area. In fact, the fifteen census variables used have been contextualised by examining the economic crisis, the modification of the labour force, the gendered life expectancy, the immigration among much more. At a general consideration, the unstable economic status, the population growth, age, and ethnicity are the major social attributes affecting the residents of the floodplain. The cluster analysis performed by the calculation of univariate LISA ratifies the spatial distribution of the index (Moran's I of 0.39 showing a positive correlation) finding the main high-high clusters in the Western and the outlet of the Po River basin. This basin includes one-third of the Italian population and this anthropogenic footprint has consistently modified the basin natural and geological environment (Carminati and Martinelli 2002) to the point that the hydraulic system will be dramatically altered in the future (Dankers and Feyen 2008). The spatial identification and the inclusion of vulnerable people into the risk management planning process have been widely discussed in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. For this reason, we analysed the flood risk resulting from the combination of high vulnerable areas with the highest flood hazard scenario. The hazard map, finalised in May 2015, has been provided by ISPRA Institute with a three-class flood

  14. Applying a statewide geospatial leaching tool for assessing soil vulnerability ratings for agrochemicals across the contiguous United States.

    PubMed

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan; Hantush, Mohamed M

    2015-06-15

    A large-scale leaching assessment tool not only illustrates soil (or groundwater) vulnerability in unmonitored areas, but also can identify areas of potential concern for agrochemical contamination. This study describes the methodology of how the statewide leaching tool in Hawaii modified recently for use with pesticides and volatile organic compounds can be extended to the national assessment of soil vulnerability ratings. For this study, the tool was updated by extending the soil and recharge maps to cover the lower 48 states in the United States (US). In addition, digital maps of annual pesticide use (at a national scale) as well as detailed soil properties and monthly recharge rates (at high spatial and temporal resolutions) were used to examine variations in the leaching (loads) of pesticides for the upper soil horizons. Results showed that the extended tool successfully delineated areas of high to low vulnerability to selected pesticides. The leaching potential was high for picloram, medium for simazine, and low to negligible for 2,4-D and glyphosate. The mass loadings of picloram moving below 0.5 m depth increased greatly in northwestern and central US that recorded its extensive use in agricultural crops. However, in addition to the amount of pesticide used, annual leaching load of atrazine was also affected by other factors that determined the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability such as soil and recharge properties. Spatial and temporal resolutions of digital maps had a great effect on the leaching potential of pesticides, requiring a trade-off between data availability and accuracy. Potential applications of this tool include the rapid, large-scale vulnerability assessments for emerging contaminants which are hard to quantify directly through vadose zone models due to lack of full environmental data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Fleshing out vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Tavaglione, Nicolas; Martin, Angela K; Mezger, Nathalie; Durieux-Paillard, Sophie; François, Anne; Jackson, Yves; Hurst, Samia A

    2015-02-01

    In the literature on medical ethics, it is generally admitted that vulnerable persons or groups deserve special attention, care or protection. One can define vulnerable persons as those having a greater likelihood of being wronged - that is, of being denied adequate satisfaction of certain legitimate claims. The conjunction of these two points entails what we call the Special Protection Thesis. It asserts that persons with a greater likelihood of being denied adequate satisfaction of their legitimate claims deserve special attention, care or protection. Such a thesis remains vague, however, as long as we do not know what legitimate claims are. This article aims at dispelling this vagueness by exploring what claims we have in relation to health care - thus fleshing out a claim-based conception of vulnerability. We argue that the Special Protection Thesis must be enriched as follows: If individual or group X has a greater likelihood of being denied adequate satisfaction of some of their legitimate claims to (i) physical integrity, (ii) autonomy, (iii) freedom, (iv) social provision, (v) impartial quality of government, (vi) social bases of self-respect or (vii) communal belonging, then X deserves special attention, care or protection. With this improved understanding of vulnerability, vulnerability talk in healthcare ethics can escape vagueness and serve as an adequate basis for practice. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Atherosclerotic plaque characterization by spatial and temporal speckle pattern analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tearney, Guillermo J.; Bouma, Brett E.

    2002-04-01

    Improved methods are needed to identify the vulnerable coronary plaques responsible for acute myocardial infraction or sudden cardiac death. We describe a method for characterizing the structure and biomechanical properties of atherosclerotic plaques based on speckle pattern fluctuations. Near-field speckle images were acquired from five human aortic specimens ex vivo. The speckle decorrelation time constant varied significantly for vulnerable aortic plaques (τ = 40 ms) versus stable plaques (τ = 400 ms) and normal aorta (τ = 500 ms). These initial results indicate that different atherosclerotic plaque types may be distinguished by analysis of temporal and spatial speckle pattern fluctuations.

  17. Crack Imaging and Quantification in Aluminum Plates with Guided Wave Wavenumber Analysis Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Lingyu; Tian, Zhenhua; Leckey, Cara A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Guided wavefield analysis methods for detection and quantification of crack damage in an aluminum plate are presented in this paper. New wavenumber components created by abrupt wave changes at the structural discontinuity are identified in the frequency-wavenumber spectra. It is shown that the new wavenumbers can be used to detect and characterize the crack dimensions. Two imaging based approaches, filter reconstructed imaging and spatial wavenumber imaging, are used to demonstrate how the cracks can be evaluated with wavenumber analysis. The filter reconstructed imaging is shown to be a rapid method to map the plate and any existing damage, but with less precision in estimating crack dimensions; while the spatial wavenumber imaging provides an intensity image of spatial wavenumber values with enhanced resolution of crack dimensions. These techniques are applied to simulated wavefield data, and the simulation based studies show that spatial wavenumber imaging method is able to distinguish cracks of different severities. Laboratory experimental validation is performed for a single crack case to confirm the methods' capabilities for imaging cracks in plates.

  18. Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia.

    PubMed

    Hoque, M A; Scheelbeek, P F D; Vineis, P; Khan, A E; Ahmed, K M; Butler, A P

    Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasing climatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along the entire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, along with an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surface drinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-India are most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking 'saline' water. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health, such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need for identifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers and local officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter the risks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined. We conclude that detailed and fine scale vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programmes along these coasts.

  19. Vulnerability as a key to authenticity.

    PubMed

    Daniel, L E

    1998-01-01

    Vulnerability is explored as a human trait that gives nurses an opportunity to engage in authentic nursing. Vulnerability in both nurse and patient is necessary for the practice of nursing with caring as its basic premise. Philosophic discourse. Vulnerability is explored in terms of its traditional connotation and existential meaning. To be authentic, nurses must be aware of their own vulnerability, recognize themselves in others, and be willing to enter into mutual vulnerability. If nurses deny the opportunity to be vulnerable, they deny the opportunity to participate in humanness and are more likely to dehumanize others.

  20. Energy vulnerability relationships

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shaw, B.R.; Boesen, J.L.

    The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to thismore » system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing proportion of imported oil create a {open_quotes}dependence{close_quotes}? Does this increasing proportion of imported oil present a vulnerability to {open_quotes}price shocks{close_quotes} and the tremendous dislocations experienced during the 1970`s? Finally, what is the vulnerability of supply disruptions from the current sources of imported oil? If oil is considered to be a finite, rapidly depleting resource, then the answers to these questions must be {open_quotes}yes.{close_quotes} However, if the supply of oil is expanding, and not limited, then dependence is relative to regional supply sources.« less

  1. A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

    2017-04-01

    Bangladesh. Several coastal sub-districts(Blocks in India, Upazila in Bangladesh) like Manpura, Basanti, Koyra, Teknaf, Sandeshkhali-II have maximum social vulnerability and have the potential to be adversely affected by environmental change, whereas several more inland sub-districts like Barrackpur-I, II, Panchlaish, Kotwali, Double Mooring have a comparatively low social vulnerability.This preliminary analysis of spatial variation of social vulnerability in the GBM delta suggests that a more intensive study of vulnerability and risk is required under a range of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes. The present study is a part of joint GBM delta study taken up by DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project as part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

  2. Multistage Spatial Property Based Segmentation for Quantification of Fluorescence Distribution in Cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Guangyun; Jia, Xiuping; Pham, Tuan D.; Crane, Denis I.

    2010-01-01

    The interpretation of the distribution of fluorescence in cells is often by simple visualization of microscope-derived images for qualitative studies. In other cases, however, it is desirable to be able to quantify the distribution of fluorescence using digital image processing techniques. In this paper, the challenges of fluorescence segmentation due to the noise present in the data are addressed. We report that intensity measurements alone do not allow separation of overlapping data between target and background. Consequently, spatial properties derived from neighborhood profile were included. Mathematical Morphological operations were implemented for cell boundary extraction and a window based contrast measure was developed for fluorescence puncta identification. All of these operations were applied in the proposed multistage processing scheme. The testing results show that the spatial measures effectively enhance the target separability.

  3. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  4. Spatial recurrence analysis: A sensitive and fast detection tool in digital mammography

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Prado, T. L.; Galuzio, P. P.; Lopes, S. R.

    Efficient diagnostics of breast cancer requires fast digital mammographic image processing. Many breast lesions, both benign and malignant, are barely visible to the untrained eye and requires accurate and reliable methods of image processing. We propose a new method of digital mammographic image analysis that meets both needs. It uses the concept of spatial recurrence as the basis of a spatial recurrence quantification analysis, which is the spatial extension of the well-known time recurrence analysis. The recurrence-based quantifiers are able to evidence breast lesions in a way as good as the best standard image processing methods available, but with amore » better control over the spurious fragments in the image.« less

  5. Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynami...

  6. Temporal scaling and spatial statistical analyses of groundwater level fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, H.; Yuan, L., Sr.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Natural dynamics such as groundwater level fluctuations can exhibit multifractionality and/or multifractality due likely to multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. This study explores multifractionality and non-Gaussian properties in groundwater dynamics expressed by time series of daily level fluctuation at three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley, after removing the seasonal cycle in the temporal scaling and spatial statistical analysis. First, using the time-scale multifractional analysis, a systematic statistical method is developed to analyze groundwater level fluctuations quantified by the time-scale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE). Results show that the TS-LHE does not remain constant, implying the fractal-scaling behavior changing with time and location. Hence, we can distinguish the potentially location-dependent scaling feature, which may characterize the hydrology dynamic system. Second, spatial statistical analysis shows that the increment of groundwater level fluctuations exhibits a heavy tailed, non-Gaussian distribution, which can be better quantified by a Lévy stable distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of the fluctuation process also show that the linear fractional stable motion model can well depict the transient dynamics (i.e., fractal non-Gaussian property) of groundwater level, while fractional Brownian motion is inadequate to describe natural processes with anomalous dynamics. Analysis of temporal scaling and spatial statistics therefore may provide useful information and quantification to understand further the nature of complex dynamics in hydrology.

  7. Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gustafson, E.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Friberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of

  8. Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

    2016-04-01

    In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings

  9. Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

    2015-04-01

    recovering capacity (the time needed to reestablish functions after a disastrous event) were also taken into account. The selected indicators were mathematically processed (standardized and normalized) in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Then a grid with a cell size of 100 x 100 m was created in order to spatialize vulnerability indicators, that were calculated as the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each cell. All identified indicators have been processed within a cluster analysis that permitted the identification of similar areas in terms of vulnerabilities. Finally, a general index was obtained by the integration of all vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. The results of the study could provide a reference basis to substantiate local correctly prioritized decisions for reducing vulnerability by mitigation and adaptation measures in order to avoid significant damages when risks materialise.

  10. Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues

    PubMed Central

    McLeman, Robert A.; Hunter, Lori M.

    2011-01-01

    Migration is one of the variety of ways by which human populations adapt to environmental changes. The study of migration in the context of anthropogenic climate change is often approached using the concept of vulnerability and its key functional elements: exposure, system sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This article explores the interaction of climate change and vulnerability through review of case studies of dry-season migration in the West African Sahel, hurricane-related population displacements in the Caribbean basin, winter migration of ‘snowbirds’ to the US Sun-belt, and 1930s drought migration on the North American Great Plains. These examples are then used as analogues for identifying general causal, temporal, and spatial dimensions of climate migration, along with potential considerations for policy-making and future research needs. PMID:22022342

  11. Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse

  12. Quantification of asymmetric microtubule nucleation at sub-cellular structures

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Xiaodong; Kaverina, Irina

    2012-01-01

    Cell polarization is important for multiple physiological processes. In polarized cells, microtubules (MTs) are organized into a spatially polarized array. Generally, in non-differentiated cells, it is assumed that MTs are symmetrically nucleated exclusively from centrosome (microtubule organizing center, MTOC) and then reorganized into the asymmetric array. We have recently identified the Golgi complex as an additional MTOC that asymmetrically nucleates MTs toward one side of the cell. Methods used for alternative MTOC identification include microtubule re-growth after complete drug-induced depolymerization and tracking of growing microtubules using fluorescence labeled MT +TIP binding proteins in living cells. These approaches can be used for quantification of MT nucleation sites at diverse sub-cellular structures. PMID:21773933

  13. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  14. Multi-tissue partial volume quantification in multi-contrast MRI using an optimised spectral unmixing approach.

    PubMed

    Collewet, Guylaine; Moussaoui, Saïd; Deligny, Cécile; Lucas, Tiphaine; Idier, Jérôme

    2018-06-01

    Multi-tissue partial volume estimation in MRI images is investigated with a viewpoint related to spectral unmixing as used in hyperspectral imaging. The main contribution of this paper is twofold. It firstly proposes a theoretical analysis of the statistical optimality conditions of the proportion estimation problem, which in the context of multi-contrast MRI data acquisition allows to appropriately set the imaging sequence parameters. Secondly, an efficient proportion quantification algorithm based on the minimisation of a penalised least-square criterion incorporating a regularity constraint on the spatial distribution of the proportions is proposed. Furthermore, the resulting developments are discussed using empirical simulations. The practical usefulness of the spectral unmixing approach for partial volume quantification in MRI is illustrated through an application to food analysis on the proving of a Danish pastry. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Megafauna of vulnerable marine ecosystems in French mediterranean submarine canyons: Spatial distribution and anthropogenic impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fabri, M.-C.; Pedel, L.; Beuck, L.; Galgani, F.; Hebbeln, D.; Freiwald, A.

    2014-06-01

    Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VME) in the deep Mediterranean Sea have been identified by the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean as consisting of communities of Scleractinia (Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata), Pennatulacea (Funiculina quadrangularis) and Alcyonacea (Isidella elongata). This paper deals with video data recorded in the heads of French Mediterranean canyons. Quantitative observations were extracted from 101 video films recorded during the MEDSEACAN cruise in 2009 (Aamp/Comex). Qualitative information was extracted from four other cruises (two Marum/Comex cruises in 2009 and 2011 and two Ifremer cruises in 1995 and 2010) to support the previous observations in the Cassidaigne and Lacaze-Duthiers canyons. All the species, fishing impacts and litter recognized in the video films recorded from 180 to 700 m depth were mapped using GIS. The abundances and distributions of benthic fishing resources (marketable fishes, Aristeidae, Octopodidae), Vulnerable Marine Species, trawling scars and litter of 17 canyons were calculated and compared, as was the open slope between the Stoechades and Toulon canyons. Funiculina quadrangularis was rarely observed, being confined for the most part to the Marti canyon and, I. elongata was abundant in three canyons (Bourcart, Marti, Petit-Rhône). These two cnidarians were encountered in relatively low abundances, and it may be that they have been swept away by repeated trawling. The Lacaze-Duthiers and Cassidaigne canyons comprised the highest densities and largest colony sizes of scleractinian cold-water corals, whose distribution was mapped in detail. These colonies were often seen to be entangled in fishing lines. The alcyonacean Callogorgia verticillata was observed to be highly abundant in the Bourcart canyon and less abundant in several other canyons. This alcyonacean was also severely affected by bottom fishing gears and is proposed as a Vulnerable Marine Species. Our studies on anthropogenic

  16. Statistical image quantification toward optimal scan fusion and change quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potesil, Vaclav; Zhou, Xiang Sean

    2007-03-01

    Recent advance of imaging technology has brought new challenges and opportunities for automatic and quantitative analysis of medical images. With broader accessibility of more imaging modalities for more patients, fusion of modalities/scans from one time point and longitudinal analysis of changes across time points have become the two most critical differentiators to support more informed, more reliable and more reproducible diagnosis and therapy decisions. Unfortunately, scan fusion and longitudinal analysis are both inherently plagued with increased levels of statistical errors. A lack of comprehensive analysis by imaging scientists and a lack of full awareness by physicians pose potential risks in clinical practice. In this paper, we discuss several key error factors affecting imaging quantification, studying their interactions, and introducing a simulation strategy to establish general error bounds for change quantification across time. We quantitatively show that image resolution, voxel anisotropy, lesion size, eccentricity, and orientation are all contributing factors to quantification error; and there is an intricate relationship between voxel anisotropy and lesion shape in affecting quantification error. Specifically, when two or more scans are to be fused at feature level, optimal linear fusion analysis reveals that scans with voxel anisotropy aligned with lesion elongation should receive a higher weight than other scans. As a result of such optimal linear fusion, we will achieve a lower variance than naïve averaging. Simulated experiments are used to validate theoretical predictions. Future work based on the proposed simulation methods may lead to general guidelines and error lower bounds for quantitative image analysis and change detection.

  17. Vulnerability and seismic damage scenarios for Barcelona (Spain) by using GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lantada, N.; Pujades, L. G.; Barbat, A.

    2003-04-01

    An integrated GIS-based analysis (using ArcView GIS) is performed in order to estimate damage scenarios for VI, VII and VIII EMS-98 seismic intensities in Barcelona (Spain). The analysis of vulnerability and damage of individual buildings is performed according to a simplified method developed by Giovanazzi and Lagomarsino at the University of Genoa (Italy). An index of average vulnerability is associated to each building typology, which may be refined on the basis of behaviour modifiers. The index allows identification of an analytical relationship between seismic input (intensity) and damage, described by a binomial distribution. This methodology, which is based on the EMS-98 building typologies and preserves the compatibility with preceding methods, is applied to the two main residential building typologies of Barcelona, that is, unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete buildings. Then, the specific residential buildings of Barcelona are classified in different groups characterized by a similar seismic behaviour. Therefore, all buildings belonging to each typology are cast in the most probable class according to vulnerability. In this way, the average vulnerability index is associated to each building typology of Barcelona and it is refined later on the basis of behaviour modifiers, linked to the number of stories, the year of construction and their state of maintenance. The ability of GIS tools to store, manage, analyse, and display the large amount of spatial and tabular data involved in this study allows to map average vulnerability indexes, and damage for the entire city. That is, vulnerability and damage scenarios. The obtained results show a high vulnerability and high expected seismic damage. For a VI degree of intensity, the maximum expected damage is in the range 15-30 % in the oldest zones of the city, the downtown, while for intensity VII it is in the range 45-60%. The developed GIS tool involves a friendly interface that allows new models and

  18. Preliminary Magnitude of Completeness Quantification of Improved BMKG Catalog (2008-2016) in Indonesian Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diantari, H. C.; Suryanto, W.; Anggraini, A.; Irnaka, T. M.; Susilanto, P.; Ngadmanto, D.

    2018-03-01

    We present a magnitude of completeness (Mc) quantification based on BMKG improved earthquake catalog which generated from Ina-TEWS seismograph network. The Mc quantification can help us determine the lowest magnitude which can be recorded perfectly as a function of space and time. We use the BMKG improved earthquake catalog from 2008 to 2016 which has been converted to moment magnitude (Mw) and declustered. The value of Mc is computed by determining the initial point of deviation patterns in Frequency Magnitude Distribution (FMD) chart following the Gutenberg-Richter equations. In the next step, we calculate the temporal variation of Mc and b-value using maximum likelihood method annually. We found that the Mc value is decreasing and produced a varying b-value. It indicates that the development of seismograph network from 2008 to 2016 can affect the value of Mc although it is not significant. We analyze temporal variation of Mc value, and correlate it with the spatial distribution of seismograph in Indonesia. The spatial distribution of seismograph installation shows that the western part of Indonesia has more dense seismograph compared to the eastern region. However, the eastern part of Indonesia has a high level of seismicity compared to the western region. Based upon the results, additional seismograph installation in the eastern part of Indonesia should be taken into consideration.

  19. The etemic model of Gypsy Roma Traveller community vulnerability: is it time to rethink our understanding of vulnerability?

    PubMed

    Heaslip, Vanessa; Hean, Sarah; Parker, Jonathan

    2016-08-09

    To present a new etemic model of vulnerability. Despite vulnerability being identified as a core consequence of health and health experiences, there has been little research exploring the meaning of vulnerability as a concept. Yet, being vulnerable is known to have dire physical/mental health consequences. It is therefore a fundamental issue for nurses to address. To date, the meaning of the term vulnerability has been influenced by the work of Spiers (Journal of Advanced Nursing, 31, 2000, 715, The Essential Concepts of Nursing: Building Blocks for Practice, 2005, Elsevier, London). Spiers identified two aspects of vulnerability: the etic (external judgment of another persons' vulnerability) and the emic (internal lived experience of vulnerability). This approach has led to a plethora of research which has explored the etic (external judgment) of vulnerability and rendered the internal lived (or emic) experience invisible. Consequences of this, for marginalised communities such as Gypsy Roma Travellers include a lack of culturally sensitive services compounding health inequalities. Position paper. Drawing upon a qualitative phenomenological research study exploring the lived experience of vulnerability from a Gypsy Roma Travelling community (published previously), this paper presents a new model of vulnerability. This etemic model of vulnerability values both external and internal dimensions of vulnerability and argues for a fusion of these two opposing perspectives. If nurses and other health- and social care professionals wish to develop practice that is successful in engaging with Gypsy Roma Travellers, then there is a need to both understand and respect their community. This can be achieved through an etemic approach to understanding their vulnerability achieved by eliciting lived experience alongside the appreciation of epidemiological studies. If nurses and health practitioners used this etemic approach to practice then it would enable both the development

  20. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

    PubMed Central

    Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

    2018-01-01

    Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

  1. Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

    PubMed

    Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

    2018-01-01

    Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

  2. Spatial Uncertainty Modeling of Fuzzy Information in Images for Pattern Classification

    PubMed Central

    Pham, Tuan D.

    2014-01-01

    The modeling of the spatial distribution of image properties is important for many pattern recognition problems in science and engineering. Mathematical methods are needed to quantify the variability of this spatial distribution based on which a decision of classification can be made in an optimal sense. However, image properties are often subject to uncertainty due to both incomplete and imprecise information. This paper presents an integrated approach for estimating the spatial uncertainty of vagueness in images using the theory of geostatistics and the calculus of probability measures of fuzzy events. Such a model for the quantification of spatial uncertainty is utilized as a new image feature extraction method, based on which classifiers can be trained to perform the task of pattern recognition. Applications of the proposed algorithm to the classification of various types of image data suggest the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty modeling technique for texture feature extraction. PMID:25157744

  3. 6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

  4. Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

    PubMed Central

    Sîrodoev, Igor; Koeppel, Sonja; Denisov, Nickolai; Sîrodoev, Ghennadi

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's “hotspots” were discussed with public participation. PMID:23766677

  5. Rare species support vulnerable functions in high-diversity ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R; Baraloto, Christopher; Chave, Jerome; Galzin, Rene; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Kulbicki, Michel; Lavergne, Sebastien; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouquet, Nicolas; Paine, C E Timothy; Renaud, Julien; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    spatial scales. As such, they are likely to insure against future uncertainty arising from climate change and the ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. Our results call for a more detailed understanding of the role of rarity and functional vulnerability in ecosystem functioning.

  6. Mining Bug Databases for Unidentified Software Vulnerabilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Jason Wright

    2012-06-01

    Identifying software vulnerabilities is becoming more important as critical and sensitive systems increasingly rely on complex software systems. It has been suggested in previous work that some bugs are only identified as vulnerabilities long after the bug has been made public. These vulnerabilities are known as hidden impact vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the feasibility and necessity to mine common publicly available bug databases for vulnerabilities that are yet to be identified. We present bug database analysis of two well known and frequently used software packages, namely Linux kernel and MySQL. It is shown that for both Linux and MySQL, amore » significant portion of vulnerabilities that were discovered for the time period from January 2006 to April 2011 were hidden impact vulnerabilities. It is also shown that the percentage of hidden impact vulnerabilities has increased in the last two years, for both software packages. We then propose an improved hidden impact vulnerability identification methodology based on text mining bug databases, and conclude by discussing a few potential problems faced by such a classifier.« less

  7. Fluorescent quantification of melanin.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Bruno; Matamá, Teresa; Guimarães, Diana; Gomes, Andreia; Cavaco-Paulo, Artur

    2016-11-01

    Melanin quantification is reportedly performed by absorption spectroscopy, commonly at 405 nm. Here, we propose the implementation of fluorescence spectroscopy for melanin assessment. In a typical in vitro assay to assess melanin production in response to an external stimulus, absorption spectroscopy clearly overvalues melanin content. This method is also incapable of distinguishing non-melanotic/amelanotic control cells from those that are actually capable of performing melanogenesis. Therefore, fluorescence spectroscopy is the best method for melanin quantification as it proved to be highly specific and accurate, detecting even small variations in the synthesis of melanin. This method can also be applied to the quantification of melanin in more complex biological matrices like zebrafish embryos and human hair. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand.

    PubMed

    Steckley, Marylynn; Doberstein, Brent

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

  9. Quantification of spatial distribution and spread of bacteria in soil at microscale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juyal, Archana; Eickhorst, Thilo; Falconer, Ruth; Baveye, Philippe; Otten, Wilfred

    2015-04-01

    Soil bacteria play an essential role in functioning of ecosystems and maintaining of biogeochemical cycles. Soil is a complex heterogeneous environment comprising of highly variable and dynamic micro-habitats that have significant impacts on the growth and activity of resident microbiota including bacteria and fungi. Bacteria occupy a very small portion of available pore space in soil which demonstrates that their spatial arrangement in soil has a huge impact on the contact to their target and on the way they interact to carry out their functions. Due to limitation of techniques, there is scant information on spatial distribution of indigenous or introduced bacteria at microhabitat scale. There is a need to understand the interaction between soil structure and microorganisms including fungi for ecosystem-level processes such as carbon sequestration and improving the predictive models for soil management. In this work, a combination of techniques was used including X-ray CT to characterize the soil structure and in-situ detection via fluorescence microscopy to visualize and quantify bacteria in soil thin sections. Pseudomonas fluorescens bacteria were introduced in sterilized soil of aggregate size 1-2 mm and packed at bulk-densities 1.3 g cm-3 and 1.5 g cm-3. A subset of samples was fixed with paraformaldehyde and subsequently impregnated with resin. DAPI and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) were used to visualize bacteria in thin sections of soil cores by epifluorescence microscopy to enumerate spatial distribution of bacteria in soil. The pore geometry of soil was quantified after X-ray microtomography scanning. The distribution of bacteria introduced locally reduced significantly (P

  10. Structural and functional properties of spatially embedded scale-free networks.

    PubMed

    Emmerich, Thorsten; Bunde, Armin; Havlin, Shlomo

    2014-06-01

    Scale-free networks have been studied mostly as non-spatially embedded systems. However, in many realistic cases, they are spatially embedded and these constraints should be considered. Here, we study the structural and functional properties of a model of scale-free (SF) spatially embedded networks. In our model, both the degree and the length of links follow power law distributions as found in many real networks. We show that not all SF networks can be embedded in space and that the largest degree of a node in the network is usually smaller than in nonembedded SF networks. Moreover, the spatial constraints (each node has only few neighboring nodes) introduce degree-degree anticorrelations (disassortativity) since two high degree nodes cannot stay close in space. We also find significant effects of space embedding on the hopping distances (chemical distance) and the vulnerability of the networks.

  11. Cotton genetic resources and crop vulnerability

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A report on the genetic vulnerability of cotton was provided to the National Genetic Resources Advisory Council. The report discussed crop vulnerabilities associated with emerging diseases, emerging pests, and a narrowing genetic base. To address these crop vulnerabilities, the report discussed the ...

  12. Tree-based approach for exploring marine spatial patterns with raster datasets.

    PubMed

    Liao, Xiaohan; Xue, Cunjin; Su, Fenzhen

    2017-01-01

    From multiple raster datasets to spatial association patterns, the data-mining technique is divided into three subtasks, i.e., raster dataset pretreatment, mining algorithm design, and spatial pattern exploration from the mining results. Comparison with the former two subtasks reveals that the latter remains unresolved. Confronted with the interrelated marine environmental parameters, we propose a Tree-based Approach for eXploring Marine Spatial Patterns with multiple raster datasets called TAXMarSP, which includes two models. One is the Tree-based Cascading Organization Model (TCOM), and the other is the Spatial Neighborhood-based CAlculation Model (SNCAM). TCOM designs the "Spatial node→Pattern node" from top to bottom layers to store the table-formatted frequent patterns. Together with TCOM, SNCAM considers the spatial neighborhood contributions to calculate the pattern-matching degree between the specified marine parameters and the table-formatted frequent patterns and then explores the marine spatial patterns. Using the prevalent quantification Apriori algorithm and a real remote sensing dataset from January 1998 to December 2014, a successful application of TAXMarSP to marine spatial patterns in the Pacific Ocean is described, and the obtained marine spatial patterns present not only the well-known but also new patterns to Earth scientists.

  13. Vulnerability and resilience: a critical nexus.

    PubMed

    Lotz, Mianna

    2016-02-01

    Not all forms of human fragility or vulnerability are unavoidable. Sometimes we knowingly and intentionally impose conditions of vulnerability on others; and sometimes we knowingly and intentionally enter into and assume conditions of vulnerability for ourselves (for example, when we decide to trust or forgive, enter into intimate relationships with others, become a parent, become a subject of medical or psychotherapeutic treatment, and the like). In this article, I propose a presently overlooked basis on which one might evaluate whether the imposition or assumption of vulnerability is acceptable, and on which one might ground a significant class of vulnerability-related obligations. Distinct from existing accounts of the importance of promoting autonomy in conditions of vulnerability, this article offers a preliminary exploration of the nature, role, and importance of resilience promotion, its relationship to autonomy promotion, and its prospects for improving human wellbeing in autonomy inhibiting conditions.

  14. Assessment of well vulnerability for groundwater source protection based on a solute transport model: a case study from Jilin City, northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Lai, Desheng; Teng, Yanguo; Zhai, Yuanzheng

    2015-05-01

    Well vulnerability assessment is essential for groundwater source protection. A quantitative approach to assess well vulnerability in a well capture zone is presented, based on forward solute transport modeling. This method was applied to three groundwater source areas (Jiuzhan, Hadawan and Songyuanhada) in Jilin City, northeast China. The ratio of the maximum contaminant concentration at the well to the released concentration at the contamination source ( c max/ c 0) was determined as the well vulnerability indicator. The results indicated that well vulnerability was higher close to the pumping well. The well vulnerability in each groundwater source area was low. Compared with the other two source areas, the cone of depression at Jiuzhan resulted in higher spatial variability of c max/ c 0 and lower minimum c max/ c 0 by three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis indicated that the denitrification rate in the aquifer was the most sensitive with respect to well vulnerability. A process to derive a NO3-N concentration at the pumping well is presented, based on determining the maximum nitrate loading limit to satisfy China's drinking-water quality standards. Finally, the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for improving the precision of this well vulnerability assessment approach are discussed.

  15. Auditory spatial processing in Alzheimer’s disease

    PubMed Central

    Golden, Hannah L.; Nicholas, Jennifer M.; Yong, Keir X. X.; Downey, Laura E.; Schott, Jonathan M.; Mummery, Catherine J.; Crutch, Sebastian J.

    2015-01-01

    The location and motion of sounds in space are important cues for encoding the auditory world. Spatial processing is a core component of auditory scene analysis, a cognitively demanding function that is vulnerable in Alzheimer’s disease. Here we designed a novel neuropsychological battery based on a virtual space paradigm to assess auditory spatial processing in patient cohorts with clinically typical Alzheimer’s disease (n = 20) and its major variant syndrome, posterior cortical atrophy (n = 12) in relation to healthy older controls (n = 26). We assessed three dimensions of auditory spatial function: externalized versus non-externalized sound discrimination, moving versus stationary sound discrimination and stationary auditory spatial position discrimination, together with non-spatial auditory and visual spatial control tasks. Neuroanatomical correlates of auditory spatial processing were assessed using voxel-based morphometry. Relative to healthy older controls, both patient groups exhibited impairments in detection of auditory motion, and stationary sound position discrimination. The posterior cortical atrophy group showed greater impairment for auditory motion processing and the processing of a non-spatial control complex auditory property (timbre) than the typical Alzheimer’s disease group. Voxel-based morphometry in the patient cohort revealed grey matter correlates of auditory motion detection and spatial position discrimination in right inferior parietal cortex and precuneus, respectively. These findings delineate auditory spatial processing deficits in typical and posterior Alzheimer’s disease phenotypes that are related to posterior cortical regions involved in both syndromic variants and modulated by the syndromic profile of brain degeneration. Auditory spatial deficits contribute to impaired spatial awareness in Alzheimer’s disease and may constitute a novel perceptual model for probing brain network disintegration across the Alzheimer

  16. Spatial sequences, but not verbal sequences, are vulnerable to general interference during retention in working memory.

    PubMed

    Morey, Candice C; Miron, Monica D

    2016-12-01

    Among models of working memory, there is not yet a consensus about how to describe functions specific to storing verbal or visual-spatial memories. We presented aural-verbal and visual-spatial lists simultaneously and sometimes cued one type of information after presentation, comparing accuracy in conditions with and without informative retro-cues. This design isolates interference due specifically to maintenance, which appears most clearly in the uncued trials, from interference due to encoding, which occurs in all dual-task trials. When recall accuracy was comparable between tasks, we found that spatial memory was worse in uncued than in retro-cued trials, whereas verbal memory was not. Our findings bolster proposals that maintenance of spatial serial order, like maintenance of visual materials more broadly, relies on general rather than specialized resources, while maintenance of verbal sequences may rely on domain-specific resources. We argue that this asymmetry should be explicitly incorporated into models of working memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

  18. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    DOE PAGES

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; ...

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

  19. Diffuse optical microscopy for quantification of depth-dependent epithelial backscattering in the cervix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodenschatz, Nico; Lam, Sylvia; Carraro, Anita; Korbelik, Jagoda; Miller, Dianne M.; McAlpine, Jessica N.; Lee, Marette; Kienle, Alwin; MacAulay, Calum

    2016-06-01

    A fiber optic imaging approach is presented using structured illumination for quantification of almost pure epithelial backscattering. We employ multiple spatially modulated projection patterns and camera-based reflectance capture to image depth-dependent epithelial scattering. The potential diagnostic value of our approach is investigated on cervical ex vivo tissue specimens. Our study indicates a strong backscattering increase in the upper part of the cervical epithelium caused by dysplastic microstructural changes. Quantization of relative depth-dependent backscattering is confirmed as a potentially useful diagnostic feature for detection of precancerous lesions in cervical squamous epithelium.

  20. Spatial Sequences, but Not Verbal Sequences, Are Vulnerable to General Interference during Retention in Working Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morey, Candice C.; Miron, Monica D.

    2016-01-01

    Among models of working memory, there is not yet a consensus about how to describe functions specific to storing verbal or visual-spatial memories. We presented aural-verbal and visual-spatial lists simultaneously and sometimes cued one type of information after presentation, comparing accuracy in conditions with and without informative…

  1. Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties

    PubMed Central

    Totschnig, Reinhold; Fuchs, Sven

    2013-01-01

    Vulnerability assessment for elements at risk is an important component in the framework of risk assessment. The vulnerability of buildings affected by torrent processes can be quantified by vulnerability functions that express a mathematical relationship between the degree of loss of individual elements at risk and the intensity of the impacting process. Based on data from the Austrian Alps, we extended a vulnerability curve for residential buildings affected by fluvial sediment transport processes to other torrent processes and other building types. With respect to this goal to merge different data based on different processes and building types, several statistical tests were conducted. The calculation of vulnerability functions was based on a nonlinear regression approach applying cumulative distribution functions. The results suggest that there is no need to distinguish between different sediment-laden torrent processes when assessing vulnerability of residential buildings towards torrent processes. The final vulnerability functions were further validated with data from the Italian Alps and different vulnerability functions presented in the literature. This comparison showed the wider applicability of the derived vulnerability functions. The uncertainty inherent to regression functions was quantified by the calculation of confidence bands. The derived vulnerability functions may be applied within the framework of risk management for mountain hazards within the European Alps. The method is transferable to other mountain regions if the input data needed are available. PMID:27087696

  2. Empirical quantification of lacustrine groundwater discharge - different methods and their limitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinikmann, K.; Nützmann, G.; Lewandowski, J.

    2015-03-01

    Groundwater discharge into lakes (lacustrine groundwater discharge, LGD) can be an important driver of lake eutrophication. Its quantification is difficult for several reasons, and thus often neglected in water and nutrient budgets of lakes. In the present case several methods were applied to determine the expansion of the subsurface catchment, to reveal areas of main LGD and to identify the variability of LGD intensity. Size and shape of the subsurface catchment served as a prerequisite in order to calculate long-term groundwater recharge and thus the overall amount of LGD. Isotopic composition of near-shore groundwater was investigated to validate the quality of catchment delineation in near-shore areas. Heat as a natural tracer for groundwater-surface water interactions was used to find spatial variations of LGD intensity. Via an analytical solution of the heat transport equation, LGD rates were calculated from temperature profiles of the lake bed. The method has some uncertainties, as can be found from the results of two measurement campaigns in different years. The present study reveals that a combination of several different methods is required for a reliable identification and quantification of LGD and groundwater-borne nutrient loads.

  3. Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

    2018-02-01

    To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

  4. Regional vulnerability of the hippocampus to repeated motor activity deprivation.

    PubMed

    Faraji, Jamshid; Soltanpour, Nabiollah; Moeeini, Reza; Hosseini, Seyed Abedin; Pakdel, Shiva; Moharrerie, Alireza; Arjang, Kaveh; Soltanpour, Nasrin; Metz, Gerlinde A S

    2016-03-15

    Spontaneous vertical and horizontal exploratory movements are integral components of rodent behavior. Little is known, however, about the structural and functional consequences of restricted spontaneous exploration. Here, we report two experiments to probe whether restriction in vertical activity (rearing) in rats could induce neuro-hormonal and behavioral disturbances. Rearing movements in rats were deprived for 3h/day for 30 consecutive days by placing the animal into a circular tunnel task. Rats temporarily deprived of rearing behavior showed elevated plasma corticosterone levels but no detectable psychological distress and/or anxiety-related behavior within an elevated plus maze. However, rats emitted a greater number of 22-kHz ultrasonic vocalizations and spent significantly more time vocalizing than controls when deprived of their rearing behavior. Despite intact spatial performance within wet- and dry-land spatial tasks, rearing-deprived rats also exhibited a significant alteration in search strategies within both spatial tasks along with reduced volume and neuron number in the hippocampal subregion CA2. These data suggest a new approach to test the importance of free exploratory behavior in endocrine and structural manifestations. The results support a central role of the CA2 in spontaneous exploratory behavior and vulnerability to psychological stress. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Intravascular probe for detection of vulnerable plaque

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, Bradley E.; Iwanczyk, Jan S.; MacDonald, Lawrence R.; Yamaguchi, Yuko; Tull, Carolyn R.; Janecek, Martin; Hoffman, Edward J.; Strauss, H. William; Tsugita, Ross; Ghazarossian, Vartan

    2001-12-01

    Coronary angiography is unable to define the status of the atheroma, and only measures the luminal dimensions of the blood vessel, without providing information about plaque content. Up to 70% of heart attacks are caused by minimally obstructive vulnerable plaques, which are too small to be detected adequately by angiography. We have developed an intravascular imaging detector to identify vulnerable coronary artery plaques. The detector works by sensing beta or conversion electron radiotracer emissions from plaque-binding radiotracers. The device overcomes the technical constraints of size, sensitivity and conformance to the intravascular environment. The detector at the distal end of the catheter uses six 7mm long by 0.5mm diameter scintillation fibers coupled to 1.5m long plastic fibers. The fibers are offset from each other longitudinally by 6mm and arranged spirally around a guide wire in the catheter. At the proximal end of the catheter the optical fibers are coupled to an interface box with a snap on connector. The interface box contains a position sensitive photomultiplier tube (PSPMT) to decode the individual fibers. The whole detector assembly fits into an 8-French (2.7 mm in diameter) catheter. The PSPMT image is further decoded with software to give a linear image, the total instantaneous count rate and an audio output whose tone corresponds to the count rate. The device was tested with F-18 and Tl-204 sources. Spectrometric response, spatial resolution, sensitivity and beta to background ratio were measured. System resolution is 6 mm and the sensitivity is >500 cps / micrometers Ci when the source is 1 mm from the detector. The beta to background ratio was 11.2 for F-18 measured on a single fiber. The current device will lead to a system allowing imaging of labeled vulnerable plaque in coronary arteries. This type of signature is expected to enable targeted and cost effective therapies to prevent acute coronary artery diseases such as: unstable angina

  6. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    PubMed

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  7. [Medical research and vulnerable subjects: unemployed people].

    PubMed

    Niebrój, Lesław

    2006-01-01

    Although the importance of medical research for the diagnosis and treatment of human diseases is unquestionable, the use of human subjects, however, still presents a complex ethical problem. Moral difficulties occur in particular when the medical research deals with vulnerable subjects. Vulnerable individuals are defined as those who experience diminished actual autonomy. Among the groups which should be considered as being vulnerable are usually listed the following: children, pregnant women, mentally or emotionally disabled, physically disabled, homeless, and institutionalized people. This study addresses key concerns that gave rise to the question of whether unemployed people had to be recognized as vulnerable subjects. The term "vulnerability" was clarified and it was assumed that the "vulnerability" of medical research subjects' had to be understood as a form of continuum from potential, through the circumstantial, temporal, episodic, permanent to inevitable vulnerability. The conclusion was drawn that unemployed people were, at least, potentially vulnerable subjects. Research involving unemployed people presents important moral challenges to researchers and should be undertaken very carefully, following special ethical guidelines.

  8. Past landscape dynamics in mountain territories: historical trajectory of vulnerability in the Vars catchment (French Alps)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puissant, Anne; Cioloboc, Florin; Schlosser, Arnaud; Gazo, Aurelien; Martin, Brice; Malet, Jean-Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, mountain landscapes have experiment natural and man-made landcover/use changes with mainly the development of tourism activities and the reduction of agro-pastoral activities. These transformations have directly influenced the spatial organization of mountain landscapes. To better anticipate the future exposure of the territory to natural hazards, decision-makers need retrospective analyses of the past changes. In the frame of the SAMCO project, whose objective is to propose mountain risk assessment methodologies in the context of global changes, this research presents a retrospective analysis of land cover/use changes (from 1948 to 2013) in the Vars catchment (French South Alps) submitted to several natural hazards (rockfall, landslide, and flood). Database of elements at risk has been built for five dates and evolution of vulnerability is performed through a versatile GIS-based analysis tool developed for the estimation of vulnerability indicators (physical, economical, social) at a fine scale (1:5000). Results allow identifying several areas with different trajectories of vulnerability which can be use as input data for risk analysis and define future trends.

  9. Hydropower and sustainability: resilience and vulnerability in China's powersheds.

    PubMed

    McNally, Amy; Magee, Darrin; Wolf, Aaron T

    2009-07-01

    Large dams represent a whole complex of social, economic and ecological processes, perhaps more than any other large infrastructure project. Today, countries with rapidly developing economies are constructing new dams to provide energy and flood control to growing populations in riparian and distant urban communities. If the system is lacking institutional capacity to absorb these physical and institutional changes there is potential for conflict, thereby threatening human security. In this paper, we propose analyzing sustainability (political, socioeconomic, and ecological) in terms of resilience versus vulnerability, framed within the spatial abstraction of a powershed. The powershed framework facilitates multi-scalar and transboundary analysis while remaining focused on the questions of resilience and vulnerability relating to hydropower dams. Focusing on examples from China, this paper describes the complex nature of dams using the sustainability and powershed frameworks. We then analyze the roles of institutions in China to understand the relationships between power, human security and the socio-ecological system. To inform the study of conflicts over dams China is a particularly useful case study because we can examine what happens at the international, national and local scales. The powershed perspective allows us to examine resilience and vulnerability across political boundaries from a dynamic, process-defined analytical scale while remaining focused on a host of questions relating to hydro-development that invoke drivers and impacts on national and sub-national scales. The ability to disaggregate the affects of hydropower dam construction from political boundaries allows for a deeper analysis of resilience and vulnerability. From our analysis we find that reforms in China's hydropower sector since 1996 have been motivated by the need to create stability at the national scale rather than resilient solutions to China's growing demand for energy and water

  10. Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baalousha, Husam Musa

    2016-12-01

    Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

  11. A study on agricultural drought vulnerability at disaggregated level in a highly irrigated and intensely cropped state of India.

    PubMed

    Murthy, C S; Yadav, Manoj; Mohammed Ahamed, J; Laxman, B; Prawasi, R; Sesha Sai, M V R; Hooda, R S

    2015-03-01

    Drought is an important global hazard, challenging the sustainable agriculture and food security of nations. Measuring agricultural drought vulnerability is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to improve and sustain the agricultural performance of both irrigated and rain-fed agriculture. In this study, crop-generic agricultural drought vulnerability status is empirically measured through a composite index approach. The study area is Haryana state, India, a prime agriculture state of the country, characterised with low rainfall, high irrigation support and stable cropping pattern. By analysing the multiyear rainfall and crop condition data of kharif crop season (June-October) derived from satellite data and soil water holding capacity and groundwater quality, nine contributing indicators were generated for 120 blocks (sub-district administrative units). Composite indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components were generated after assigning variance-based weightages to the respective input indicators. Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Index (ADVI) was developed through a linear combination of the three component indices. ADVI-based vulnerability categorisation revealed that 51 blocks are with vulnerable to very highly vulnerable status. These blocks are located in the southern and western parts of the state, where groundwater quality is saline and water holding capacity of soils is less. The ADVI map has effectively captured the spatial pattern of agricultural drought vulnerability in the state. Districts with large number of vulnerable blocks showed considerably larger variability of de-trended crop yields. Correlation analysis reveals that crop condition variability, groundwater quality and soil factors are closely associated with ADVI. The vulnerability index is useful to prioritise the blocks for implementation of long-term drought management plans. There is scope for improving the methodology by adding/fine-tuning the indicators and

  12. A pragmatic analysis of vulnerability in clinical research.

    PubMed

    Wendler, David

    2017-09-01

    Identifying which subjects are vulnerable, and implementing safeguards to protect them, is widely regarded as essential to clinical research. Commentators have endorsed a number of responses to these challenges and have thereby made significant progress in understanding vulnerability in clinical research. At the same time, this literature points to a central contradiction which calls into question its potential to protect vulnerable subjects in practice. Specifically, analysis suggests that all human subjects are vulnerable and vulnerability in clinical research is comparative and context dependent, in the sense that individuals are vulnerable relative to others and in some contexts only. Yet, if everyone is vulnerable, there seems to be no point in citing the vulnerability of some individuals. Moreover, the conclusion that everyone is vulnerable seems inconsistent with the claims that vulnerability is comparative and context dependent, raising concern over whether it will be possible to develop a comprehensive account of vulnerability that is internally consistent. The solution to this dilemma lies in recognition of the fact that the practical significance of claims regarding vulnerability depends on the context in which they are used. The claims that appear to lead to the central contradiction are in fact accurate conclusions that follow from different uses of the term 'vulnerability'. The present manuscript describes this 'pragmatic' approach to vulnerability in clinical research and considers its implications for ensuring that subjects receive appropriate protection. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. Not the usual suspects: addressing layers of vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Luna, Florencia; Vanderpoel, Sheryl

    2013-07-01

    This paper challenges the traditional account of vulnerability in healthcare which conceptualizes vulnerability as a list of identifiable subpopulations. This list of 'usual suspects', focusing on groups from lower resource settings, is a narrow account of vulnerability. In this article we argue that in certain circumstances middle-class individuals can be also rendered vulnerable. We propose a relational and layered account of vulnerability and explore this concept using the case study of cord blood (CB) banking. In the first section, two different approaches to 'vulnerability' are contrasted: categorical versus layered. In the second section, we describe CB banking and present a case study of CB banking in Argentina. We examine the types of pressure that middle-class pregnant women feel when considering CB collection and storage. In section three, we use the CB banking case study to critique the categorical approach to vulnerability: this model is unable to account for the ways in which these women are vulnerable. A layered account of vulnerability identifies several ways in which middle-class women are vulnerable. Finally, by utilizing the layered approach, this paper suggests how public health policies could be designed to overcome vulnerabilities. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Outside-Xylem Vulnerability, Not Xylem Embolism, Controls Leaf Hydraulic Decline during Dehydration.

    PubMed

    Scoffoni, Christine; Albuquerque, Caetano; Brodersen, Craig R; Townes, Shatara V; John, Grace P; Bartlett, Megan K; Buckley, Thomas N; McElrone, Andrew J; Sack, Lawren

    2017-02-01

    Leaf hydraulic supply is crucial to maintaining open stomata for CO 2 capture and plant growth. During drought-induced dehydration, the leaf hydraulic conductance (K leaf ) declines, which contributes to stomatal closure and, eventually, to leaf death. Previous studies have tended to attribute the decline of K leaf to embolism in the leaf vein xylem. We visualized at high resolution and quantified experimentally the hydraulic vulnerability of xylem and outside-xylem pathways and modeled their respective influences on plant water transport. Evidence from all approaches indicated that the decline of K leaf during dehydration arose first and foremost due to the vulnerability of outside-xylem tissues. In vivo x-ray microcomputed tomography of dehydrating leaves of four diverse angiosperm species showed that, at the turgor loss point, only small fractions of leaf vein xylem conduits were embolized, and substantial xylem embolism arose only under severe dehydration. Experiments on an expanded set of eight angiosperm species showed that outside-xylem hydraulic vulnerability explained 75% to 100% of K leaf decline across the range of dehydration from mild water stress to beyond turgor loss point. Spatially explicit modeling of leaf water transport pointed to a role for reduced membrane conductivity consistent with published data for cells and tissues. Plant-scale modeling suggested that outside-xylem hydraulic vulnerability can protect the xylem from tensions that would induce embolism and disruption of water transport under mild to moderate soil and atmospheric droughts. These findings pinpoint outside-xylem tissues as a central locus for the control of leaf and plant water transport during progressive drought. © 2017 The author(s). All Rights Reserved.

  15. The vulnerability of family caregivers in relation to vulnerability as understood by nurses.

    PubMed

    Sarvimäki, Anneli; Stenbock-Hult, Bettina; Sundell, Eija; Oesch-Börman, Christine

    2017-03-01

    In Finland, the care of older persons is shifting from institutional care to family care. Research shows that family caregivers experience their situation much in the same way as professional nurses. The nurses' experiences have been studied in terms of vulnerability, and the same perspective could deepen our understanding of family caregivers' experiences. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge of the vulnerability of older caregivers taking care of an ageing family member. The research questions were as follows: How do family caregivers experience vulnerability? How do their experiences relate to vulnerability as understood by nurses? The study was done as a secondary analysis of focus group interviews on the experiences and daily life of older family caregivers. Four caregivers had taken part in monthly interviews during a period of 10 months. The interviews were analysed by deductive and inductive content analysis. The results showed that the caregivers saw caregiving as part of being human. They experienced a variety of feelings and moral agony and were harmed physically, mentally and socially. They showed courage, protected themselves and recognised that being a caregiver also was a source of maturing and developing. These results corresponded with the nurses' understanding of vulnerability. Shame, the experience of duty as a burden, worry and loneliness were themes that were found only among the family caregivers. The use of a matrix may have restricted the analysis, but using it in an unconstrained way allowed for new themes to be created. The results indicate a common humanness and vulnerability in professional and family caregiving. They also show that family caregivers need more support both from society and professionals. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  16. A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.

  17. Projected tree species redistribution under climate change: Implications for ecosystem vulnerability across protected areas in the eastern United States

    Treesearch

    Scott G. Zolkos; Patrick Jantz; Tina Cormier; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel W. McKenney; Scott J. Goetz

    2015-01-01

    The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and...

  18. MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

  19. Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

    2016-04-01

    This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

  20. The hydrological vulnerability of western North American boreal tree species based on ground-based observations of tree mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.

    2017-12-01

    Several studies indicate that climate change has increased rates of tree mortality, adversely affecting timber supply and carbon storage in western North American boreal forests. Statistical models of tree mortality can play a complimentary role in detecting and diagnosing forest change. Yet, such models struggle to address real-world complexity, including expectations that hydrological vulnerability arises from both drought stress and excess-water stress, and that these effects vary by species, tree size, and competitive status. Here, we describe models that predict annual probability of tree mortality (Pm) of common boreal tree species based on tree height (H), biomass of larger trees (BLT), soil water content (W), reference evapotranspiration (E), and two-way interactions. We show that interactions among H and hydrological variables are consistently significant. Vulnerability to extreme droughts consistently increases as H approaches maximum observed values of each species, while some species additionally show increasing vulnerability at low H. Some species additionally show increasing vulnerability to low W under high BLT, or increasing drought vulnerability under low BLT. These results suggest that vulnerability of trees to increasingly severe droughts depends on the hydraulic efficiency, competitive status, and microclimate of individual trees. Static simulations of Pm across a 1-km grid (i.e., with time-independent inputs of H, BLT, and species composition) indicate complex spatial patterns in the time trends during 1965-2014 and a mean change in Pm of 42 %. Lastly, we discuss how the size-dependence of hydrological vulnerability, in concert with increasingly severe drought events, may shape future responses of stand-level biomass production to continued warming and increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the region.

  1. Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

  2. Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

    2012-04-01

    This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

  3. a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

    2014-10-01

    Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

  4. Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

    PubMed

    Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

    2017-03-30

    Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

  5. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  6. INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL DATA: EVALUATION OF METHODS BASED ON DATA ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has focused initially on the synthesis of existing data. We have used the same set of spatial data and synthesized these data using a total of 11 existing and newly developed integration methods. These methods were evaluated ...

  7. Vulnerability analysis methods for road networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bíl, Michal; Vodák, Rostislav; Kubeček, Jan; Rebok, Tomáš; Svoboda, Tomáš

    2014-05-01

    steps can be taken in order to make it more resilient. Performing such an analysis of network break-ups requires consideration of the network as a whole, ideally identifying all the cases generated by simultaneous closure of multiple links and evaluating them using various criteria. The spatial distribution of settlements, important companies and the overall population in the nodes of the network are several factors, apart from the topology of the network which could be taken into account when computing vulnerability indices and identifying the weakest links and/or weakest link combinations. However, even for small networks (i.e., hundreds of nodes and links), the problem of break-up identification becomes extremely difficult to resolve. The naive approaches of the brute force examination consequently fail and more elaborated algorithms have to be applied. We address the problem of evaluating the vulnerability of road networks in our work by simulating the impacts of the simultaneous closure of multiple roads/links. We present an ongoing work on a sophisticated algorithm focused on the identification of network break-ups and evaluating them by various criteria.

  8. The Lipid-Rich Plaque Study of vulnerable plaques and vulnerable patients: Study design and rationale.

    PubMed

    Waksman, Ron; Torguson, Rebecca; Spad, Mia-Ashley; Garcia-Garcia, Hector; Ware, James; Wang, Rui; Madden, Sean; Shah, Priti; Muller, James

    2017-10-01

    It has been hypothesized that the outcome post-PCI could be improved by the detection and subsequent treatment of vulnerable patients and lipid-rich vulnerable coronary plaques (LRP). A near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) catheter capable of detecting LRP is being evaluated in The Lipid-Rich Plaque Study. The LRP Study is an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study conducted in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent cardiac catheterization with possible ad hoc PCI for an index event. Patient level and plaque level events were detected by follow-up in the subsequent 2 years. Enrollment began in February 2014 and was completed in March 2016; a total of 1,562 patients were enrolled. Adjudication of new coronary event occurrence and de novo culprit lesion location during the 2-year follow-up is performed by an independent clinical end-points committee (CEC) blinded to NIRS-IVUS findings. The first analysis of the results will be performed when at least 20 de novo events have occurred for which follow-up angiographic data and baseline NIRS-IVUS measurements are available. It is expected that results of the study will be announced in 2018. The LRP Study will test the hypotheses that NIRS-IVUS imaging to detect LRP in patients can identify vulnerable patients and vulnerable plaques. Identification of vulnerable patients will assist future studies of novel systemic therapies; identification of localized vulnerable plaques would enhance future studies of possible preventive measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé; Farias do Valle Junior, Renato

    Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managersmore » because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental

  10. Accessibility and utilization patterns of a mobile medical clinic among vulnerable populations.

    PubMed

    Gibson, Britton A; Ghosh, Debarchana; Morano, Jamie P; Altice, Frederick L

    2014-07-01

    We mapped mobile medical clinic (MMC) clients for spatial distribution of their self-reported locations and travel behaviors to better understand health-seeking and utilization patterns of medically vulnerable populations in Connecticut. Contrary to distance decay literature, we found that a small but significant proportion of clients was traveling substantial distances to receive repeat care at the MMC. Of 8404 total clients, 90.2% lived within 5 miles of a MMC site, yet mean utilization was highest (5.3 visits per client) among those living 11-20 miles of MMCs, primarily for those with substance use disorders. Of clients making >20 visits, 15.0% traveled >10 miles, suggesting that a significant minority of clients traveled to MMC sites because of their need-specific healthcare services, which are not only free but available at an acceptable and accommodating environment. The findings of this study contribute to the important research on healthcare utilization among vulnerable population by focusing on broader dimensions of accessibility in a setting where both mobile and fixed healthcare services coexist. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Dynamic Changes of Landscape Pattern and Vulnerability Analysis in Qingyi River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ziwei; Xie, Chaoying; He, Xiaohui; Guo, Hengliang; Wang, Li

    2017-11-01

    Environmental vulnerability research is one of the core areas of global environmental change research. Over the past 10 years, ecologically fragile zones or transition zones had been significantly affected by environmental degradation and climate change and human activities. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of landscape pattern and landscape vulnerability degree in Qingyi River Basin by calculating the landscape sensitivity index and landscape restoration degree index based on Landsat images of 2005, 2010 and 2015. The results showed that: (1) The top conversion area was farmland, woodland and grassland area decreased, city land and rural residential land increased fastest. (2) The fragility of the landscape pattern along the Qingyi River gradually increased between 2005 and 2015, the downstream area was influenced by the influence of human activities. (3) Landscape pattern changes and fragility are mainly affected by urbanization. These findings are helpful for understanding the evolution of landscape pattern as well as urban ecology, which both have significant implications for urban planning and minimize the potential environmental impacts of urbanization in Qingyi River Basin.

  12. Quantification and characterization of glyphosate use and loss in a residential area.

    PubMed

    Tang, Ting; Boënne, Wesley; Desmet, Nele; Seuntjens, Piet; Bronders, Jan; van Griensven, Ann

    2015-06-01

    Urban runoff can be a significant source of pesticides in urban streams. However, quantification of this source has been difficult because pesticide use by urban residents (e.g., on pavements or in gardens) is often unknown, particularly at the scale of a residential catchment. Proper quantification and characterization of pesticide loss via urban runoff require sound information on the use and occurrence of pesticides at hydrologically-relevant spatial scales, involving various hydrological conditions. We conducted a monitoring study in a residential area (9.5 ha, Flanders, Belgium) to investigate the use and loss of a widely-used herbicide (glyphosate) and its major degradation product (aminomethylphosphonic acid, AMPA). The study covered 13 rainfall events over 67 days. Overall, less than 0.5% of glyphosate applied was recovered from the storm drain outflow in the catchment. Maximum detected concentrations were 6.1 μg/L and 5.8 μg/L for glyphosate and AMPA, respectively, both of which are below the predicted no-effect concentration for surface water proposed by the Flemish environmental agency (10 μg/L), but are above the EU drinking water standard (0.1 μg/L). The measured concentrations and percentage loss rates can be attributed partially to the strong sorption capacity of glyphosate and low runoff potential in the study area. However, glyphosate loss varied considerably among rainfall events and event load of glyphosate mass was mainly controlled by rainfall amount, according to further statistical analyses. To obtain urban pesticide management insights, robust tools are required to investigate the loss and occurrence of pesticides influenced by various factors, particularly the hydrological and spatial factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

    1998-12-01

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  14. Drug abuse: vulnerability and transition to addiction.

    PubMed

    Le Moal, M

    2009-05-01

    Intrinsic vulnerability is central to the transition of recreational drug use to misuse. Several factors contribute to vulnerability, inherent or acquired, and they account for the huge individual differences observed concerning the propensity to enter in the addiction process. Some of the multifactional causes for a vulnerable phenotype will be examined: genetic factors, age and gender influences, various comorbidities and epidemiological observations. Stress-induced vulnerability will be particularly reviewed because it provides a good model for a pathophysiological research and for relating environmental events to biological consequences of drug vulnerability, namely through the striato-cortical dopamine system. Experimental studies are generally blind concerning these historical factors that contribute vulnerability and a critical evaluation of current animal models is needed. The transition of the last stage of the process, addiction, is conceptualized as a progression from homeostasis to allostasis and then, to pathology.

  15. NV: Nessus Vulnerability Visualization for the Web

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harrison, Lane; Spahn, Riley B; Iannacone, Michael D

    2012-01-01

    Network vulnerability is a critical component of network se- curity. Yet vulnerability analysis has received relatively lit- tle attention from the security visualization community. In this paper we describe nv, a web-based Nessus vulnerability visualization. Nv utilizes treemaps and linked histograms to allow system administrators to discover, analyze, and man- age vulnerabilities on their networks. In addition to visual- izing single Nessus scans, nv supports the analysis of sequen- tial scans by showing which vulnerabilities have been fixed, remain open, or are newly discovered. Nv was also designed to operate completely in-browser, to avoid sending sensitive data to outside servers.more » We discuss the design of nv, as well as provide case studies demonstrating vulnerability analysis workflows which include a multiple-node testbed and data from the 2011 VAST Challenge.« less

  16. An approach for mapping the vulnerability of European Union soils to antibiotic contamination.

    PubMed

    de la Torre, Ana; Iglesias, Irene; Carballo, Matilde; Ramírez, Pablo; Muñoz, María Jesús

    2012-01-01

    Release of antibiotics into the environment through the agricultural reuse of animal manure is considered a cause of chronic environmental exposure that often leads to adverse ecotoxicological effects, as well as to the introduction of antibiotic-resistant bacteria into the environment. The vulnerability of soil to antibiotic contamination plays a major role in determining the extent of the contamination and the likelihood of the emergence of antibiotic resistance and the appearance of ecotoxicological effects. It depends on soil characteristics, which vary across Europe, and antibiotic characteristics, which vary across drug classes. Understanding how soil vulnerability varies geographically for different veterinary medicinal products would be very useful for resource allocation among surveillance programmes. This paper performs risk analysis of the EU region for 12 antimicrobials using a spatial assessment performed in four steps. First, antibiotic release was estimated based on livestock density. Then exposure was estimated based on antimicrobial soil contamination. Third, consequences were modelled based on soil uses. Finally, risk was estimated by combining release, exposure and consequences using spatial multicriteria decision analysis. A final risk value for soil vulnerability was calculated for each antibiotic studied and displayed in chloropletic maps (ArcGIS 9.3). Furthermore, the Getis-Ord Gi statistic was used to identify clusters of areas at high risk for antibiotic soil contamination. Enrofloxacin was the highest-risk antibiotic in the European Union, followed by tetracyclines, tylosin and sulfodiazine. The highest risk values were found in Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Germany and the UK. The results suggest that this methodology can be used successfully for evaluating the contamination potential of antibiotics over large areas with limited input data. This work is a preliminary step towards prioritising the use of veterinary

  17. Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

    2010-05-01

    For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of

  18. Deltaic margins vulnerability: the role of landscape patches in flood regulation and climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentini, E.; Taramelli, A.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Filipponi, F.; Casarotti, C.; Morelli, A.

    2015-12-01

    Andrea Taramelli1,2,3, Emiliana Valentini2,3, Alessandra Nguyenxuan2, Federico Filipponi3, Chiara Casarotti2, Arianna Morelli1 1IUSS Institute for Advanced Study, Piazza della Vittoria 15, 27100, Pavia, ITALY 2Eucentre Foundation, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, Pavia, Italy 3ISPRA, Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Via Vitaliano Brancati 48, 00144, Roma Deltas are widely identified as vulnerable hotspots at the interface of the continental land mass and the world's coastal boundaries. With respect to increasing risks related to global change, the concept of ecosystem services has a capacity to contribute to safety of both, social and natural systems and vulnerability reduction. Here we study the role of the pool of ecosystem services in terms of flood mitigation and vulnerability reduction model, in a deltaic margins of the European coast (the complex land-sea system of the Waddenzee, comprising the Netherland inner coast and the islands, North Sea) then applicable to a wide variety of deltaic regions in developing areas. Extensive tidal mud flats, saltmarshes, dune ridges and sandy spits between the mainland and the chain of islands, support valuable sediment and primary production regulation along the seaside of these ecosystems. The system includes an incentive ecosystem structure (dune system) whereby economic agents would choose development activities that reduce vulnerability (flooding protection and erosion prevention) as well as satisfy production objectives (recreation and tourism). Vulnerability values extracted using remote sensing processors represent an innovative development of systems and methodologies. Using remote sensing observations, we investigate the distribution of spatial vegetation and substrate patterns controlled by changes in environmental variables acting on deltas, and we speculate the conditions under which the Real Elementary area can be defined.

  19. A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Heat Vulnerability Across the United States using Geospatial Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoessow, F. S.; Li, Y.; Howe, P. D.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme heat events are the deadliest natural hazard in the United States and are expected to increase in both severity and frequency in the coming years due to the effects of climate change. The risks of climate change and weather-related events such as heat waves to a population can be more comprehensively assessed by coupling the traditional examination of natural hazards using remote sensing and geospatial analysis techniques with human vulnerability factors and individual perceptions of hazards. By analyzing remote-sensed and empirical survey data alongside national hazards advisories, this study endeavors to establish a nationally-representative baseline quantifying the spatiotemporal variation of individual heat vulnerabilities at multiple scales and between disparate population groups affected by their unique socioenvironmental factors. This is of immediate academic interest because the study of heat waves risk perceptions remains relatively unexplored - despite the intensification of extreme heat events. The use of "human sensors", georeferenced & timestamped individual response data, provides invaluable contextualized data at a high spatial resolution, which will enable policy-makers to more effectively implement targeted strategies for risk prevention, mitigation, and communication. As climate change risks are further defined, this cognizance will help identify vulnerable populations and enhance national hazard preparedness and recovery frameworks.

  20. Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mogaji, K. A.

    2017-04-01

    Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is

  1. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  2. Spatially-Resolved Proteomics: Rapid Quantitative Analysis of Laser Capture Microdissected Alveolar Tissue Samples

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Clair, Geremy; Piehowski, Paul D.; Nicola, Teodora

    Global proteomics approaches allow characterization of whole tissue lysates to an impressive depth. However, it is now increasingly recognized that to better understand the complexity of multicellular organisms, global protein profiling of specific spatially defined regions/substructures of tissues (i.e. spatially-resolved proteomics) is essential. Laser capture microdissection (LCM) enables microscopic isolation of defined regions of tissues preserving crucial spatial information. However, current proteomics workflows entail several manual sample preparation steps and are challenged by the microscopic mass-limited samples generated by LCM, and that impact measurement robustness, quantification, and throughput. Here, we coupled LCM with a fully automated sample preparation workflow thatmore » with a single manual step allows: protein extraction, tryptic digestion, peptide cleanup and LC-MS/MS analysis of proteomes from microdissected tissues. Benchmarking against the current state of the art in ultrasensitive global proteomic analysis, our approach demonstrated significant improvements in quantification and throughput. Using our LCM-SNaPP proteomics approach, we characterized to a depth of more than 3,400 proteins, the ontogeny of protein changes during normal lung development in laser capture microdissected alveolar tissue containing ~4,000 cells per sample. Importantly, the data revealed quantitative changes for 350 low abundance transcription factors and signaling molecules, confirming earlier transcript-level observations and defining seven modules of coordinated transcription factor/signaling molecule expression patterns, suggesting that a complex network of temporal regulatory control directs normal lung development with epigenetic regulation fine-tuning pre-natal developmental processes. Our LCM-proteomics approach facilitates efficient, spatially-resolved, ultrasensitive global proteomics analyses in high-throughput that will be enabling for several

  3. Rare Species Support Vulnerable Functions in High-Diversity Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Mouillot, David; Bellwood, David R.; Baraloto, Christopher; Chave, Jerome; Galzin, Rene; Harmelin-Vivien, Mireille; Kulbicki, Michel; Lavergne, Sebastien; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouquet, Nicolas; Paine, C. E. Timothy; Renaud, Julien; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2013-01-01

    spatial scales. As such, they are likely to insure against future uncertainty arising from climate change and the ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. Our results call for a more detailed understanding of the role of rarity and functional vulnerability in ecosystem functioning. PMID:23723735

  4. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density.

    PubMed

    Glick, Henry B; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S; Covey, Kristofer R; Smith, Jeffrey R; Crowther, Thomas W

    2016-08-16

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services.

  5. Quantitative Imaging of Gut Microbiota Spatial Organization

    PubMed Central

    Earle, Kristen A.; Billings, Gabriel; Sigal, Michael; Lichtman, Joshua S.; Hansson, Gunnar C.; Elias, Joshua E.; Amieva, Manuel R.; Huang, Kerwyn Casey; Sonnenburg, Justin L.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Genomic technologies have significantly advanced our understanding of the composition and diversity of host-associated microbial populations. However, their spatial organization and functional interactions relative to the host have been more challenging to study. Here we present a pipeline for the assessment of intestinal microbiota localization within immunofluorescence images of fixed gut cross-sections that includes a flexible software package, BacSpace, for high-throughput quantification of microbial organization. Applying this pipeline to gnotobiotic and human microbiota-colonized mice, we demonstrate that elimination of microbiota accessible carbohydrates (MACs) from the diet results in thinner mucus in the distal colon, increased proximity of microbes to the epithelium, and heightened expression of the inflammatory marker REG3β. Measurements of microbe-microbe proximity reveal that a MAC-deficient diet alters monophyletic spatial clustering. Furthermore, we quantify the invasion of Helicobacter pylori into the glands of the mouse stomach relative to host mitotic progenitor cells, illustrating the generalizability of this approach. PMID:26439864

  6. Processing and domain selection: Quantificational variability effects

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Jesse A.; Clifton, Charles; Frazier, Lyn

    2014-01-01

    Three studies investigated how readers interpret sentences with variable quantificational domains, e.g., The army was mostly in the capital, where mostly may quantify over individuals or parts (Most of the army was in the capital) or over times (The army was in the capital most of the time). It is proposed that a general conceptual economy principle, No Extra Times (Majewski 2006, in preparation), discourages the postulation of potentially unnecessary times, and thus favors the interpretation quantifying over parts. Disambiguating an ambiguously quantified sentence to a quantification over times interpretation was rated as less natural than disambiguating it to a quantification over parts interpretation (Experiment 1). In an interpretation questionnaire, sentences with similar quantificational variability were constructed so that both interpretations of the sentence would require postulating multiple times; this resulted in the elimination of the preference for a quantification over parts interpretation, suggesting the parts preference observed in Experiment 1 is not reducible to a lexical bias of the adverb mostly (Experiment 2). An eye movement recording study showed that, in the absence of prior evidence for multiple times, readers exhibit greater difficulty when reading material that forces a quantification over times interpretation than when reading material that allows a quantification over parts interpretation (Experiment 3). These experiments contribute to understanding readers’ default assumptions about the temporal properties of sentences, which is essential for understanding the selection of a domain for adverbial quantifiers and, more generally, for understanding how situational constraints influence sentence processing. PMID:25328262

  7. Fluctuation between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism.

    PubMed

    Gore, Whitney L; Widiger, Thomas A

    2016-10-01

    Current literature on narcissistic personality disorder has emphasized a distinction between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. Some researchers have further suggested that narcissistic persons fluctuate between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. However, this perception has been confined largely to clinical experience with no systematic research testing the hypothesis. Clinicians and clinical psychology professors in the current study identified 143 persons who fit a description of either a grandiose or a vulnerable narcissist and indicated the extent to which these persons ever demonstrated traits of the complementary variant. The results supported the fluctuation hypothesis, particularly for episodes of vulnerable narcissism in persons identified as a grandiose narcissist. Correlations of the grandiose and vulnerable narcissism traits with a brief five-factor model measure corroborated past trait descriptions of the 2 respective variants of narcissism. The results of the current study are compared with existing cross-sectional and longitudinal research, and suggestions for future research are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Psychotropic medications for highly vulnerable children.

    PubMed

    McLaren, Jennifer L; Barnett, Erin R; Concepcion Zayas, Milangel T; Lichtenstein, Jonathan; Acquilano, Stephanie C; Schwartz, Lisa M; Woloshin, Steven; Drake, Robert E

    2018-04-01

    At least 20% of children in the U.S. are highly vulnerable because they lack healthcare and protection. Several factors produce vulnerability: trauma, disruptions of parenting, poverty, involvement in the juvenile justice and/or child welfare systems, residence in restrictive settings, and problems related to developmental disabilities. These children receive psychotropic medications at high rates, raising numerous concerns. Areas covered: The authors begin this review with a description of the population of highly vulnerable children. They then follow this with a review of the effectiveness and side effects of psychotropic medications for their most common diagnoses, using the highest-quality systematic reviews identified by multiple database searches. Expert opinion: Highly vulnerable children receive numerous psychotropic medications with high rates of polypharmacy, off-label use, and long-term use, typically in the absence of adjunctive psychosocial interventions. The current evidence contravenes these trends. Future studies of psychotropic medications in vulnerable children should include long-term effectiveness trials and polypharmacy in conjunction with evidence-based, family-centered, psychosocial treatments.

  9. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

  10. Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

    PubMed

    Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

  11. Methods to Secure Databases Against Vulnerabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    for several languages such as C, C++, PHP, Java and Python [16]. MySQL will work well with very large databases. The documentation references...using Eclipse and connected to each database management system using Python and Java drivers provided by MySQL , MongoDB, and Datastax (for Cassandra...tiers in Python and Java . Problem MySQL MongoDB Cassandra 1. Injection a. Tautologies Vulnerable Vulnerable Not Vulnerable b. Illegal query

  12. Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

    PubMed

    Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

    2017-10-01

    Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

  13. One perspective on spatial variability in geologic mapping

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markewich, H.W.; Cooper, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the differences between geologic mapping and soil mapping, and how the resultant maps are interpreted. The role of spatial variability in geologic mapping is addressed only indirectly because in geologic mapping there have been few attempts at quantification of spatial differences. This is largely because geologic maps deal with temporal as well as spatial variability and consider time, age, and origin, as well as composition and geometry. Both soil scientists and geologists use spatial variability to delineate mappable units; however, the classification systems from which these mappable units are defined differ greatly. Mappable soil units are derived from systematic, well-defined, highly structured sets of taxonomic criteria; whereas mappable geologic units are based on a more arbitrary heirarchy of categories that integrate many features without strict values or definitions. Soil taxonomy is a sorting tool used to reduce heterogeneity between soil units. Thus at the series level, soils in any one series are relatively homogeneous because their range of properties is small and well-defined. Soil maps show the distribution of soils on the land surface. Within a map area, soils, which are often less than 2 m thick, show a direct correlation to topography and to active surface processes as well as to parent material.

  14. A Temporal Assessment of Barrier Island Vulnerability to Extreme Wave Events, Virginia Coast Reserve

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oster, D. J.; Moore, L. J.; Doran, K. J.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2010-12-01

    Barrier island vulnerability to storm-generated waves is directly related to interactions between shoreface morphology and surf-zone dynamics. During storms, the seaward-most dune often limits the landward extent of wave energy; however, if maximum wave run-up exceeds the elevation of the top of the dune, overwash or inundation may occur. The ‘Storm Impact Scale’ presented by Sallenger (2000) classifies barrier beach vulnerability to individual storm events based on the elevation of the frontal dune crest and toe relative to maximum wave run-up. Changes to the dune and beachface can occur over a range of time scales, altering local vulnerability to extreme waves from storms, even as a storm is occurring. As sea level continues to rise, barrier beaches will become increasingly vulnerable to overwash and inundation from a greater number of storms. Our objective is to assess temporal trends in barrier island vulnerability while also exploring island-chain-wide response and recovery from two notably different storm events (Nor’Ida and Hurricane Bonnie) along the undeveloped barrier islands of the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR). We compare shoreline position and elevations of the frontal dune crest (DHIGH) and dune toe (DLOW) across four lidar data sets collected between 1998-2010. Observed significant wave height and period from the National Data Buoy Center and the Duck, NC Field Research Facility for the time period between 1985 and 2009 are classified to represent one-year, five-year, and ten-year storm events that serve as the basis for comparison of island vulnerability through time to a range of storm severity. Initial results reveal significant spatial and temporal variation in barrier island vulnerability to storms throughout the VCR. Despite the range of variability, all three beach features (i.e., shoreline position, DHIGH and DLOW), have moved landward indicating large-scale, widespread migration, or narrowing, of VCR barrier island landforms over the

  15. Coastal Vulnerability Due to Sea-level Rise Hazard in the Bangladesh Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shum, Ck; Ballu, Valérie; Calmant, Stéphane; Duan, Jianbin; Guo, Junyi; Hossain, Fasial; Jenkins, Craig; Haque Khan, Zahirul; Kim, Jinwoo; Kuhn, Michael; Kusche, Jürgen; Papa, Fabrice; Tseng, Kuohsin; Wan, Junkun

    2014-05-01

    Approximately half of the world's population or 3.2 billion people lives within 200 km of coastlines and many of them in the world's deltaic plains. Sea-level rise, widely recognized as one of consequences resulting from anthropogenic climate change, has induced substantial coastal vulnerability globally and in particular, in the deltaic regions, such as coastal Bangladesh, and Yangtze Delta. Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Here we describe the physical science component of the integrated approach based on both physical and social sciences to address the adaption and potential mitigation of coastal Bangladesh vulnerability. The objective is to quantify the estimates of spatial varying sea-level trend separating the vertical motion of the coastal regions using geodetic and remote-sensing measurements (tide gauges, 1950-current; satellite altimetry, 1992-present, GRACE, 2003-present, Landsat/MODIS), reconstructed sea-level trends (1950-current), and GPS and InSAR observed land subsidence. Our goal is to conduct physically based robust projection of relative sea-level change at the end of the 21st century for the Bangladesh Delta to enable quantitative measures of social science based adaption and possible mitigation.

  16. TB in Vulnerable Populations

    PubMed Central

    Ugarte-Gil, César; Caro, Godofredo; Aylas, Rula; Castro, César; Lema, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This article analyzes the factors associated with vulnerability of the Ashaninka, the most populous indigenous Peruvian Amazonian people, to tuberculosis (TB). By applying a human rights-based analytical framework that assesses public policy against human rights standards and principles, and by offering a step-by-step framework for a full assessment of compliance, it provides evidence of the relationship between the incidence of TB among the Ashaninka and Peru’s poor level of compliance with its human rights obligations. The article argues that one of the main reasons for the historical vulnerability of the Ashaninka to diseases such as TB is a lack of political will on the part of the national government to increase public health spending, ensure that resources reach the most vulnerable population, and adopt and invest in a culturally appropriate health system. PMID:27780999

  17. Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

    2010-05-01

    . Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

  18. Mapping of coastal aquifer vulnerable zone in the south west coast of Kanyakumari, South India, using GIS-based DRASTIC model.

    PubMed

    Kaliraj, S; Chandrasekar, N; Peter, T Simon; Selvakumar, S; Magesh, N S

    2015-01-01

    The south west coast of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu, India, is significantly affected by seawater intrusion and diffusion of pollutants into the aquifers due to unregulated beach placer mining and other anthropogenic activities. The present study investigates the vulnerability of the coastal aquifers using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC model. The seven DRASTIC parameters have been analyzed using the statistical equation of this model to demarcate the vulnerable zones for aquifer contamination. The vulnerability index map is prepared from the weighted spatial parameters, and an accounting of total index value ranged from 85 to 213. Based on the categorization of vulnerability classes, the high vulnerable zones are found near the beach placer mining areas between Manavalakurichi and Kodimanal coastal stretches. The aquifers associated with settlements and agricultural lands in the middle-eastern part have experienced high vulnerability due to contaminated water bodies. Similarly, the coastal areas of Thengapattinam and Manakudi estuary and around the South Tamaraikulam have also been falling under high vulnerability condition due to backwater and saltpan. In general, the nearshore region except the placer mining zone and the backwater has a moderately vulnerable condition, and the vulnerability index values range from 149 to180. Significantly, the northern and northeastern uplands and some parts of deposition zones in the middle-south coast have been identified as low to no vulnerable conditions. They are structurally controlled by various geological features such as charnockite, garnet biotite gneiss and granites, and sand dunes, respectively. The aquifer vulnerability assessment has been cross-verified by geochemical indicators such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl(-), HCO₃(-), and Cl(-)/HCO₃(-) ratio. The high ranges of TDS (1,842--3,736 mg/l) and Cl(-) (1,412--2,112 mg/l) values are well correlated with the observed high

  19. Quantification of susceptibility change at high-concentrated SPIO-labeled target by characteristic phase gradient recognition.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Haitao; Nie, Binbin; Liu, Hua; Guo, Hua; Demachi, Kazuyuki; Sekino, Masaki; Shan, Baoci

    2016-05-01

    Phase map cross-correlation detection and quantification may produce highlighted signal at superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles, and distinguish them from other hypointensities. The method may quantify susceptibility change by performing least squares analysis between a theoretically generated magnetic field template and an experimentally scanned phase image. Because characteristic phase recognition requires the removal of phase wrap and phase background, additional steps of phase unwrapping and filtering may increase the chance of computing error and enlarge the inconsistence among algorithms. To solve problem, phase gradient cross-correlation and quantification method is developed by recognizing characteristic phase gradient pattern instead of phase image because phase gradient operation inherently includes unwrapping and filtering functions. However, few studies have mentioned the detectable limit of currently used phase gradient calculation algorithms. The limit may lead to an underestimation of large magnetic susceptibility change caused by high-concentrated iron accumulation. In this study, mathematical derivation points out the value of maximum detectable phase gradient calculated by differential chain algorithm in both spatial and Fourier domain. To break through the limit, a modified quantification method is proposed by using unwrapped forward differentiation for phase gradient generation. The method enlarges the detectable range of phase gradient measurement and avoids the underestimation of magnetic susceptibility. Simulation and phantom experiments were used to quantitatively compare different methods. In vivo application performs MRI scanning on nude mice implanted by iron-labeled human cancer cells. Results validate the limit of detectable phase gradient and the consequent susceptibility underestimation. Results also demonstrate the advantage of unwrapped forward differentiation compared with differential chain algorithms for susceptibility

  20. Spatial heterogeneity in human activities favors the persistence of wolves in agroecosystems.

    PubMed

    Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people.

  1. Spatial Heterogeneity in Human Activities Favors the Persistence of Wolves in Agroecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Ahmadi, Mohsen; López-Bao, José Vicente; Kaboli, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people. PMID:25251567

  2. Identifying Frailty Among Vulnerable Populations

    PubMed Central

    Salem, Benissa E.; Nyamathi, Adeline; Phillips, Linda R.; Mentes, Janet; Sarkisian, Catherine; Brecht, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    Frailty is a significant public health issue which is experienced by homeless and other vulnerable adults; to date, a frailty framework has not been proposed to guide researchers who study this hard-to-reach population. The Frailty Framework among Homeless and other Vulnerable Populations (FFHVP) has been developed from empirical research and consultation with frailty experts in an effort to characterize antecedents, i.e. situational, health-related, behavioral, resource, biological, and environmental factors which contribute to physical, psychological and social frailty domains and impact adverse outcomes. As vulnerable populations continue to age, a greater understanding of frailty will enable the development of nursing interventions. PMID:24469090

  3. Spatial patterns of ergot and quantification of sclerotia in perennial ryegrass seed fields

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Ergot, caused by Claviceps purpurea, is a major disease of perennial ryegrass grass grown for seed in eastern Oregon. The objective of this research was to quantify and describe the spatial patterns of ergot severity in each of three 50 ha commercial fields of perennial ryegrass grown for seed in 20...

  4. [Teenage pregnancy rates and socioeconomic characteristics of municipalities in São Paulo State, Southeast Brazil: a spatial analysis].

    PubMed

    Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Roza, Daiane Leite da; Caccia-Bava, Maria do Carmo Gullaci Guimarães; Achcar, Jorge Alberto; Dal-Fabbro, Amaury Lelis

    2011-05-01

    Teenage pregnancy is a common public health problem worldwide. The objective of this ecological study was to investigate the spatial association between teenage pregnancy rates and socioeconomic characteristics of municipalities in São Paulo State, Southeast Brazil. We used a Bayesian model with a spatial distribution following a conditional autoregressive (CAR) form based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Early pregnancy was more frequent in municipalities with lower per capital gross domestic product (GDP), higher poverty rate, smaller population, lower human development index (HDI), and a higher percentage of individuals with State social vulnerability index of 5 or 6 (more vulnerable). The study demonstrates a significant association between teenage pregnancy and socioeconomic indicators.

  5. Tsunami vulnerability analysis in the coastal town of Catania, Sicily: methodology and results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano; Gallazzi, Sara; Tonini, Roberto; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    Catania lies on the eastern coast of Sicily and is one of the most important towns in Sicily as regards history, tourism and industry. Recent analyses conducted in the frame of the project TRANSFER have shown that it is exposed not only to tsunamis generated locally, but also to distant tsunamis generated in the western Hellenic arc. In the frame of the European project SCHEMA different scenarios covering local sources such as the 11 January 1693 event and the 1908 case as well as remote sources such as the 365 AD tsunami have been explored through numerical modelling in order to assess the vulnerability of the area to tsunami attacks. One of the primary outcomes of the scenario analysis is the quantification of the inundation zones (location, extension along the coast and landward). Taking the modelling results on flooding as input data, the analysis has focussed on the geomorphological characteristics of the coasts and on the buildings and infrastructure typology to make evaluation of the vulnerability level of the Catania area. The coast to the south of the harbour of Catania is low and characterized by a mild slope: topography reaches the altitude of 10 m between 300-750 m distance from the shoreline. Building density is low, and generally tourist structures prevail on residential houses. The zone north of the harbour is high-coast, with 10 m isoline usually close to the coastline, and little possibility for flood to penetrate deep inland. Here there are three small marinas with the corresponding services and infrastructure around, and the city quarters consists of residential buildings. Vulnerability assessment has been carried out by following the methodology developed by the SCHEMA consortium, distinguishing between primary (type and material) and secondary criteria (e.g. ground, age, foundation, orientation, etc.) for buildings, and by adopting a building damage matrix, basically depending on building type and water inundation depth. Data needed for such

  6. Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America

    PubMed Central

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland). PMID:29554132

  7. Guided Wave Delamination Detection and Quantification With Wavefield Data Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tian, Zhenhua; Campbell Leckey, Cara A.; Seebo, Jeffrey P.; Yu, Lingyu

    2014-01-01

    Unexpected damage can occur in aerospace composites due to impact events or material stress during off-nominal loading events. In particular, laminated composites are susceptible to delamination damage due to weak transverse tensile and inter-laminar shear strengths. Developments of reliable and quantitative techniques to detect delamination damage in laminated composites are imperative for safe and functional optimally-designed next-generation composite structures. In this paper, we investigate guided wave interactions with delamination damage and develop quantification algorithms by using wavefield data analysis. The trapped guided waves in the delamination region are observed from the wavefield data and further quantitatively interpreted by using different wavenumber analysis methods. The frequency-wavenumber representation of the wavefield shows that new wavenumbers are present and correlate to trapped waves in the damage region. These new wavenumbers are used to detect and quantify the delamination damage through the wavenumber analysis, which can show how the wavenumber changes as a function of wave propagation distance. The location and spatial duration of the new wavenumbers can be identified, providing a useful means not only for detecting the presence of delamination damage but also allowing for estimation of the delamination size. Our method has been applied to detect and quantify real delamination damage with complex geometry (grown using a quasi-static indentation technique). The detection and quantification results show the location, size, and shape of the delamination damage.

  8. Quantitative proteomics of synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria: insights for synaptic mitochondrial vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Stauch, Kelly L; Purnell, Phillip R; Fox, Howard S

    2014-05-02

    Synaptic mitochondria are essential for maintaining calcium homeostasis and producing ATP, processes vital for neuronal integrity and synaptic transmission. Synaptic mitochondria exhibit increased oxidative damage during aging and are more vulnerable to calcium insult than nonsynaptic mitochondria. Why synaptic mitochondria are specifically more susceptible to cumulative damage remains to be determined. In this study, the generation of a super-SILAC mix that served as an appropriate internal standard for mouse brain mitochondria mass spectrometry based analysis allowed for the quantification of the proteomic differences between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria isolated from 10-month-old mice. We identified a total of 2260 common proteins between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria of which 1629 were annotated as mitochondrial. Quantitative proteomic analysis of the proteins common between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria revealed significant differential expression of 522 proteins involved in several pathways including oxidative phosphorylation, mitochondrial fission/fusion, calcium transport, and mitochondrial DNA replication and maintenance. In comparison to nonsynaptic mitochondria, synaptic mitochondria exhibited increased age-associated mitochondrial DNA deletions and decreased bioenergetic function. These findings provide insights into synaptic mitochondrial susceptibility to damage.

  9. Quantitative Proteomics of Synaptic and Nonsynaptic Mitochondria: Insights for Synaptic Mitochondrial Vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Synaptic mitochondria are essential for maintaining calcium homeostasis and producing ATP, processes vital for neuronal integrity and synaptic transmission. Synaptic mitochondria exhibit increased oxidative damage during aging and are more vulnerable to calcium insult than nonsynaptic mitochondria. Why synaptic mitochondria are specifically more susceptible to cumulative damage remains to be determined. In this study, the generation of a super-SILAC mix that served as an appropriate internal standard for mouse brain mitochondria mass spectrometry based analysis allowed for the quantification of the proteomic differences between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria isolated from 10-month-old mice. We identified a total of 2260 common proteins between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria of which 1629 were annotated as mitochondrial. Quantitative proteomic analysis of the proteins common between synaptic and nonsynaptic mitochondria revealed significant differential expression of 522 proteins involved in several pathways including oxidative phosphorylation, mitochondrial fission/fusion, calcium transport, and mitochondrial DNA replication and maintenance. In comparison to nonsynaptic mitochondria, synaptic mitochondria exhibited increased age-associated mitochondrial DNA deletions and decreased bioenergetic function. These findings provide insights into synaptic mitochondrial susceptibility to damage. PMID:24708184

  10. Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified

  11. Vulnerability to re-entry in simulated two-dimensional cardiac tissue: effects of electrical restitution and stimulation sequence.

    PubMed

    Tran, Diana X; Yang, Ming-Jim; Weiss, James N; Garfinkel, Alan; Qu, Zhilin

    2007-12-01

    Ventricular fibrillation is a lethal arrhythmia characterized by multiple wavelets usually starting from a single or figure-of-eight re-entrant circuit. Understanding the factors regulating vulnerability to the re-entry is essential for developing effective therapeutic strategies to prevent ventricular fibrillation. In this study, we investigated how pre-existing tissue heterogeneities and electrical restitution properties affect the initiation of re-entry by premature extrastimuli in two-dimensional cardiac tissue models. We studied two pacing protocols for inducing re-entry following the "sinus" rhythm (S1) beat: (1) a single premature (S2) extrastimulus in heterogeneous tissue; (2) two premature extrastimuli (S2 and S3) in homogeneous tissue. In the first case, the vulnerable window of re-entry is determined by the spatial dimension and extent of the heterogeneity, and is also affected by electrical restitution properties and the location of the premature stimulus. The vulnerable window first increases as the action potential duration (APD) difference between the inside and outside of the heterogeneous region increases, but then decreases as this difference increases further. Steeper APD restitution reduces the vulnerable window of re-entry. In the second case, electrical restitution plays an essential role. When APD restitution is flat, no re-entry can be induced. When APD restitution is steep, re-entry can be induced by an S3 over a range of S1S2 intervals, which is also affected by conduction velocity restitution. When APD restitution is even steeper, the vulnerable window is reduced due to collision of the spiral tips.

  12. Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence microscopy enables multiscale spatial visualization of ions involved in fungal lignocellulose deconstruction

    Treesearch

    Grant T. Kirker; Samuel Zelinka; Sophie-Charlotte Gleber; David Vine; Lydia Finney; Si Chen; Young Pyo Hong; Omar Uyarte; Stefan Vogt; Jody Jellison; Barry Goodell; Joseph E. Jakes

    2017-01-01

    The role of ions in the fungal decay process of lignocellulose biomaterials, and more broadly fungal metabolism, has implications for diverse research disciplines ranging from plant pathology and forest ecology, to carbon sequestration. Despite the importance of ions in fungal decay mechanisms, the spatial distribution and quantification of ions in lignocellulosic cell...

  13. HPC Analytics Support. Requirements for Uncertainty Quantification Benchmarks

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Purohit, Sumit; Rodriguez, Luke R.

    2015-05-01

    This report outlines techniques for extending benchmark generation products so they support uncertainty quantification by benchmarked systems. We describe how uncertainty quantification requirements can be presented to candidate analytical tools supporting SPARQL. We describe benchmark data sets for evaluating uncertainty quantification, as well as an approach for using our benchmark generator to produce data sets for generating benchmark data sets.

  14. Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Woo, Jean; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

    2017-08-31

    Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also

  15. An approach for quantification of platinum distribution in tissues by LA-ICP-MS imaging using isotope dilution analysis.

    PubMed

    Moraleja, I; Mena, M L; Lázaro, A; Neumann, B; Tejedor, A; Jakubowski, N; Gómez-Gómez, M M; Esteban-Fernández, D

    2018-02-01

    Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) has been revealed as a convenient technique for trace elemental imaging in tissue sections, providing elemental 2D distribution at a quantitative level. For quantification purposes, in the last years several approaches have been proposed in the literature such as the use of CRMs or matrix matched standards. The use of Isotope Dilution (ID) for quantification by LA-ICP-MS has been also described, being mainly useful for bulk analysis but not feasible for spatial measurements so far. In this work, a quantification method based on ID analysis was developed by printing isotope-enriched inks onto kidney slices from rats treated with antitumoral Pt-based drugs using a commercial ink-jet device, in order to perform an elemental quantification in different areas from bio-images. For the ID experiments 194 Pt enriched platinum was used. The methodology was validated by deposition of natural Pt standard droplets with a known amount of Pt onto the surface of a control tissue, where could be quantified even 50pg of Pt, with recoveries higher than 90%. The amount of Pt present in the whole kidney slices was quantified for cisplatin, carboplatin and oxaliplatin-treated rats. The results obtained were in accordance with those previously reported. The amount of Pt distributed between the medullar and cortical areas was also quantified, observing different behavior for the three drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-07-01

    Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

  17. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    PubMed

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016

  18. Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

  19. Spatial serial order processing in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Fraser, David; Park, Sohee; Clark, Gina; Yohanna, Daniel; Houk, James C

    2004-10-01

    The aim of this study was to examine serial order processing deficits in 21 schizophrenia patients and 16 age- and education-matched healthy controls. In a spatial serial order working memory task, one to four spatial targets were presented in a randomized sequence. Subjects were required to remember the locations and the order in which the targets were presented. Patients showed a marked deficit in ability to remember the sequences compared with controls. Increasing the number of targets within a sequence resulted in poorer memory performance for both control and schizophrenia subjects, but the effect was much more pronounced in the patients. Targets presented at the end of a long sequence were more vulnerable to memory error in schizophrenia patients. Performance deficits were not attributable to motor errors, but to errors in target choice. The results support the idea that the memory errors seen in schizophrenia patients may be due to saturating the working memory network at relatively low levels of memory load.

  20. Jordan Water Project: an interdisciplinary evaluation of freshwater vulnerability and security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorelick, S.; Yoon, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Muller, M. F.; Zhang, H.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Sigel, K.; Thilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Lachaut, T.; Harou, J. J.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Haddad, Y.; Shamekh, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Jordan Water Project, part of the Belmont Forum projects, is an interdisciplinary, international research effort focused on evaluation of freshwater security in Jordan, one of the most water-vulnerable countries in the world. The team covers hydrology, water resources systems analysis, economics, policy evaluation, geography, risk and remote sensing analyses, and model platform development. The entire project team communally engaged in construction of an integrated hydroeconomic model for water supply policy evaluation. To represent water demand and allocation behavior at multiple levels of decision making,the model integrates biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered hydrologic phenomena with human behavioral modules. Hydrologic modules include spatially-distributed groundwater and surface-water models for the major aquifers and watersheds throughout Jordan. For the human modules, we adopt a multi-agent modeling approach to represent decision-making processes. The integrated model was developed in Pynsim, a new open-source, object-oriented platform in Python for network-based water resource systems. We continue to explore the impacts of future scenarios and interventions.This project had tremendous encouragement and data support from Jordan's Ministry of Water and Irrigation. Modeling technology is being transferred through a companion NSF/USAID PEER project awarded toJordan University of Science and Technology. Individual teams have also conducted a range of studies aimed at evaluating Jordanian and transboundary surface water and groundwater systems. Surveys, interviews, and econometric analyses enabled us to better understandthe behavior of urban households, farmers, private water resellers, water use pattern of the commercial sector and irrigation water user associations. We analyzed nationwide spatial and temporal statistical trends in rainfall, developed urban and national comparative metrics to quantify water supply vulnerability

  1. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  2. Deep-sea seabed habitats: Do they support distinct mega-epifaunal communities that have different vulnerabilities to anthropogenic disturbance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowden, David A.; Rowden, Ashley A.; Leduc, Daniel; Beaumont, Jennifer; Clark, Malcolm R.

    2016-01-01

    Growing economic interest in seabed resources in the deep-sea highlights the need for information about the spatial distribution and vulnerability to disturbance of benthic habitats and fauna. Categorisation of seabed habitats for management is often based on topographic features such as canyons and seamounts that can be distinguished using regional bathymetry ('mega-habitats'). This is practical but because such habitats are contiguous with others, there is potential for overlap in the communities associated with them. Because concepts of habitat and community vulnerability are based on the traits of individual taxa, the nature and extent of differences between communities have implications for strategies to manage the environmental effects of resource use. Using towed video camera transects, we surveyed mega-epifaunal communities of three topographically-defined habitats (canyon, seamount or knoll, and continental slope) and two physico-chemically defined meso-scale habitats (cold seep and hydrothermal vent) in two regions off New Zealand to assess whether each supports a distinct type of community. Cold seep and hydrothermal vent communities were strongly distinct from those in other habitats. Across the other habitats, however, distinctions between communities were often weak and were not consistent between regions. Dissimilarities among communities across all habitats were stronger and the density of filter-feeding taxa was higher in the Bay of Plenty than on the Hikurangi Margin, whereas densities of predatory and scavenging taxa were higher on the Hikurangi Margin. Substratum diversity at small spatial scales (<1 km) and trawl history were significantly correlated with community composition in both regions. We conclude that, (1) a lack of consistent distinction between communities raises questions about the general utility of topographically-defined mega-habitats in environmental management, (2) fine-scale survey of individual features is necessary to

  3. Prioritizing vulnerable children: why should we address inequity?

    PubMed

    Joshua, P; Zwi, K; Moran, P; White, L

    2015-11-01

    Children and young people from vulnerable population groups, including Indigenous Australians, those in out of home care, those with disabilities and those from refugee families, have difficulties in accessing health services and are at high risk of adverse outcomes, driving population health inequity. Although heterogeneous, these groups face common disadvantage and shared challenges in health service utilization. This study aims to analyse the demographics of vulnerable child populations in NSW, the rationale for focussing on their health needs and strategies for addressing population health inequity. A literature review was undertaken on vulnerable child populations and successful strategies for improving their health outcomes. NSW data on vulnerable children were collated. Vulnerable children in NSW are estimated to comprise 10-20% of the childhood population. Efforts to improve their health and well-being can be justified based on child rights, a focus on equity and effectiveness of care, public opinion and the evidence base supporting such interventions. Targeted (subpopulation specific) interventions and delivery of universally applied (population wide) strategies that disproportionately benefit vulnerable populations have been shown to be effective in reducing healthcare disparities. Most available information relates to specific vulnerable population groups. However, some effective strategies and key principles are broadly applicable to the vulnerable child population as a whole. Vulnerable children should be a key focus of healthcare interventions if inequities are to be addressed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A Quantitative Three-Dimensional Image Analysis Tool for Maximal Acquisition of Spatial Heterogeneity Data.

    PubMed

    Allenby, Mark C; Misener, Ruth; Panoskaltsis, Nicki; Mantalaris, Athanasios

    2017-02-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) imaging techniques provide spatial insight into environmental and cellular interactions and are implemented in various fields, including tissue engineering, but have been restricted by limited quantification tools that misrepresent or underutilize the cellular phenomena captured. This study develops image postprocessing algorithms pairing complex Euclidean metrics with Monte Carlo simulations to quantitatively assess cell and microenvironment spatial distributions while utilizing, for the first time, the entire 3D image captured. Although current methods only analyze a central fraction of presented confocal microscopy images, the proposed algorithms can utilize 210% more cells to calculate 3D spatial distributions that can span a 23-fold longer distance. These algorithms seek to leverage the high sample cost of 3D tissue imaging techniques by extracting maximal quantitative data throughout the captured image.

  5. 43 CFR 11.71 - Quantification phase-service reduction quantification.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...-discharge-or-release condition. (c) Contents of the quantification. The following factors should be included...; and (6) Factors identified in the specific guidance in paragraphs (h), (i), (j), (k), and (l) of this section dealing with the different kinds of natural resources. (d) Selection of resources, services, and...

  6. 43 CFR 11.71 - Quantification phase-service reduction quantification.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...-discharge-or-release condition. (c) Contents of the quantification. The following factors should be included...; and (6) Factors identified in the specific guidance in paragraphs (h), (i), (j), (k), and (l) of this section dealing with the different kinds of natural resources. (d) Selection of resources, services, and...

  7. An accurate proteomic quantification method: fluorescence labeling absolute quantification (FLAQ) using multidimensional liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Liu, Junyan; Liu, Yang; Gao, Mingxia; Zhang, Xiangmin

    2012-08-01

    A facile proteomic quantification method, fluorescent labeling absolute quantification (FLAQ), was developed. Instead of using MS for quantification, the FLAQ method is a chromatography-based quantification in combination with MS for identification. Multidimensional liquid chromatography (MDLC) with laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) detection with high accuracy and tandem MS system were employed for FLAQ. Several requirements should be met for fluorescent labeling in MS identification: Labeling completeness, minimum side-reactions, simple MS spectra, and no extra tandem MS fragmentations for structure elucidations. A fluorescence dye, 5-iodoacetamidofluorescein, was finally chosen to label proteins on all cysteine residues. The fluorescent dye was compatible with the process of the trypsin digestion and MALDI MS identification. Quantitative labeling was achieved with optimization of reacting conditions. A synthesized peptide and model proteins, BSA (35 cysteines), OVA (five cysteines), were used for verifying the completeness of labeling. Proteins were separated through MDLC and quantified based on fluorescent intensities, followed by MS identification. High accuracy (RSD% < 1.58) and wide linearity of quantification (1-10(5) ) were achieved by LIF detection. The limit of quantitation for the model protein was as low as 0.34 amol. Parts of proteins in human liver proteome were quantified and demonstrated using FLAQ. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Vulnerable users: deceptive robotics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, Emily C.

    2017-07-01

    The Principles of Robotics were outlined by the EPSRC in 2010. They are aimed at regulating robots in the real world. This paper represents a response to principle number four which reads: "Robots are manufactured artefacts. They should not be designed in a deceptive way to exploit vulnerable users; instead their machine nature should be transparent". The following critique questions the principle's validity by asking whether it is correct as a statement about the nature of robots, and the relationship between robots and people. To achieve this, the principle is broken down into the following two main component statements: (1) "Robots should not be designed in a deceptive way to exploit vulnerable users", and, (2) "Machine nature should be transparent". It is argued that both of the component statements that make up this principle are fundamentally flawed because of the undefined nature of the critical terms: "deceptive", "vulnerable", and "machine nature", and that as such the principle as a whole is misleading.

  9. Spatial distribution of sediment storage types and quantification of valley fill deposits in an alpine basin, Reintal, Bavarian Alps, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrott, Lothar; Hufschmidt, Gabi; Hankammer, Martin; Hoffmann, Thomas; Dikau, Richard

    2003-09-01

    Spatial patterns of sediment storage types and associated volumes using a novel approach for quantifying valley fill deposits are presented for a small alpine catchment (17 km 2) in the Bavarian Alps. The different sediment storage types were analysed with respect to geomorphic coupling and sediment flux activity. The most landforms in the valley in terms of surface area were found to be talus slopes (sheets and cones) followed by rockfall deposits and alluvial fans and plains. More than two-thirds of the talus slopes are relict landforms, completely decoupled from the geomorphic system. Notable sediment transport is limited to avalanche tracks, debris flows, and along floodplains. Sediment volumes were calculated using a combination of polynomial functions of cross sections, seismic refraction, and GIS modelling. A total of, 66 seismic refraction profiles were carried out throughout the valley for a more precise determination of sediment thicknesses and to check the bedrock data generated from geomorphometric analysis. We calculated the overall sediment volume of the valley fill deposits to be 0.07 km 3. This corresponds to a mean sediment thickness of 23.3 m. The seismic refraction data showed that large floodplains and sedimentation areas, which have been developed through damming effects from large rockfalls, are in general characterised by shallow sediment thicknesses (<20 m). By contrast, the thickness of several talus slopes is more than twice as much. For some locations (e.g., narrow sections of valley), the polynomial-generated cross sections resulted in overestimations of up to one order of magnitude; whereas in sections with a moderate valley shape, the modelled cross sections are in good accordance with the obtained seismic data. For the quantification of valley fill deposits, a combined application of bedrock data derived from polynomials and geophysical prospecting is highly recommended.

  10. Empirical Estimates of 0Day Vulnerabilities in Control Systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Sean M. McBride

    2009-01-01

    We define a 0Day vulnerability to be any vulnerability, in deployed software, which has been discovered by at least one person but has not yet been publicly announced or patched. These 0Day vulnerabilities are of particular interest when assessing the risk to well managed control systems which have already effectively mitigated the publicly known vulnerabilities. In these well managed systems the risk contribution from 0Days will have proportionally increased. To aid understanding of how great a risk 0Days may pose to control systems, an estimate of how many are in existence is needed. Consequently, using the 0Day definition given above,more » we developed and applied a method for estimating how many 0Day vulnerabilities are in existence on any given day. The estimate is made by: empirically characterizing the distribution of the lifespans, measured in days, of 0Day vulnerabilities; determining the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day; and applying a novel method for estimating the number of 0Day vulnerabilities in existence on any given day using the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day and the previously derived distribution of 0Day lifespans. The method was first applied to a general set of software applications by analyzing the 0Day lifespans of 491 software vulnerabilities and using the daily rate of vulnerability announcements in the National Vulnerability Database. This led to a conservative estimate that in the worst year there were, on average, 2500 0Day software related vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. Using a smaller but intriguing set of 15 0Day software vulnerability lifespans representing the actual time from discovery to public disclosure, we then made a more aggressive estimate. In this case, we estimated that in the worst year there were, on average, 4500 0Day software vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. We then proceeded to identify the subset of software applications likely to be used

  11. Modeling Electricity Sector Vulnerabilities and Costs Associated with Water Temperatures Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Brinkman, G.; Ibanez, E.; Newmark, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability of the power sector is highly vulnerable to variability in the availability and temperature of water resources, including those that might result from potential climatic changes or from competition from other users. In the past decade, power plants throughout the United States have had to shut down or curtail generation due to a lack of available water or from elevated water temperatures. These disruptions in power plant performance can have negative impacts on energy security and can be costly to address. Analysis of water-related vulnerabilities requires modeling capabilities with high spatial and temporal resolution. This research provides an innovative approach to energy-water modeling by evaluating the costs and reliability of a power sector region under policy and climate change scenarios that affect water resource availability and temperatures. This work utilizes results from a spatially distributed river water temperature model coupled with a thermoelectric power plant model to provide inputs into an electricity production cost model that operates on a high spatial and temporal resolution. The regional transmission organization ISO-New England, which includes six New England states and over 32 Gigawatts of power capacity, is utilized as a case study. Hydrological data and power plant operations are analyzed over an eleven year period from 2000-2010 under four scenarios that include climate impacts on water resources and air temperatures as well as strict interpretations of regulations that can affect power plant operations due to elevated water temperatures. Results of these model linkages show how the power sector's reliability and economic performance can be affected by changes in water temperatures and water availability. The effective reliability and capacity value of thermal electric generators are quantified and discussed in the context of current as well as potential future water resource characteristics.

  12. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

  13. Vulnerability, Health Agency and Capability to Health.

    PubMed

    Straehle, Christine

    2016-01-01

    One of the defining features of the capability approach (CA) to health, as developed in Venkatapuram's book Health Justice, is its aim to enable individual health agency. Furthermore, the CA to health hopes to provide a strong guideline for assessing the health-enabling content of social and political conditions. In this article, I employ the recent literature on the liberal concept of vulnerability to assess the CA. I distinguish two kinds of vulnerability. Considering circumstantial vulnerability, I argue that liberal accounts of vulnerability concerned with individual autonomy, align with the CA to health. Individuals should, as far as possible, be able to make health-enabling decisions about their lives, and their capability to do so should certainly not be hindered by public policy. The CA to health and a vulnerability-based analysis then work alongside to define moral responsibilities and designate those who hold them. Both approaches demand social policy to address circumstances that hinder individuals from taking health-enabling decisions. A background condition of vulnerability, on the other hand, even though it hampers the capability for health, does not warrant the strong moral claim proposed by the CA to health to define health as a meta-capability that should guide social policy. Nothing in our designing social policy could change the challenge to health agency when we deal with background conditions of vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. [Coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty in contiguous destitute areas, China: Empirical analysis of 714 poverty-stricken counties.

    PubMed

    Cao, Shi Song; Wang, Yan Hui; Duan, Fu Zhou; Zhao, Wen Ji; Wang, Zhi Heng; Fang, Na

    2016-08-01

    Maintaining the coordinated correlation between ecological environment and economic development is one of the important strategies in the new stage of poverty alleviation and development. Taking 714 poverty-stricken counties in contiguous destitute areas as study areas, this paper designed the ecological vulnerability evaluation indicator system based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, as well as the comprehensive poverty evaluation indicators from the perspective of socioeconomic development, so as to build the coupling model to reveal the coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty. The results showed that Hu-Line could act as a feasible partition label to depict the spatial distribution patterns of ecological vulnerability, economic poverty, as well as their coupling degree in contiguous destitute areas, which should be fully taken into consideration the influence of Hu-Line on the east-west pattern classification of national poverty reduction. In addition, there existed a symbiotic positive correlation between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty, therefore, the strategic significance of ecological and environment protection in poverty-stricken areas should be specifically emphasized to reduce economic poverty by synchronously protecting the ecological environment. Approximately half of the counties involved in the study area were in the coordinated type of recession disorders, where the ecological environment quality and the economic development could not be synchronized.

  15. Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

    2017-08-01

    Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

  16. Methodology for the Detection of Residential Vulnerable Areas - the Case of Barcelona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornado, Cossima; Garcia-Almirall, Pilar; Vima, Sara; Vila Busqued, Gemma; Uzqueda, Angel

    2017-10-01

    In a context of a shifting environmental, economic and social paradigm, European cities face a situation that is at the same time challenge and opportunity: the need for urban rehabilitation of the vulnerable degraded socio residential fabric. Public administrations in big cities and metropolitan areas are confronted with both the undercurrent need of actualization of the built stock and the rise of urban residential vulnerability. The city of Barcelona, as many others, is the result of multiple phenomena with high urban and social consequences. The socio spatial integration of immigrant population, the touristic rise and gentrification processes are current situations simultaneously taking place in the city. In parallel, a framework of economic crisis in which public investments in urban and social matters decrease, provides a temporal juncture that results into an increase of social polarization and socio economic inequality that becomes evident and expressed in the territory. This research focuses in the case of Barcelona, and presents a methodology based on a system of indicators elaborated through the exploitation of statistical data complemented with very specific data supplied by the Barcelona City Council. The accurate knowledge of socio demographic, socioeconomic and residential and urban characteristics is crucial in order to define the very complex urban dynamics that describe in the city neighbourhoods and areas. Residential vulnerability is defined as an assembly of objective conditions that relate to residential space and indicate situations of social discrimination and structural disadvantage of the population, related to a specific time and context. Thus, it is relevant to analyse the concentration of certain indicators of vulnerability in specific places or neighbourhoods, to contrast its effect on the socio-residential situation and its temporal evolution in order to identify tendencies. The present study contributes to the identification of data

  17. Outside-Xylem Vulnerability, Not Xylem Embolism, Controls Leaf Hydraulic Decline during Dehydration1[CC-BY

    PubMed Central

    Townes, Shatara V.; Bartlett, Megan K.; Buckley, Thomas N.; McElrone, Andrew J.; Sack, Lawren

    2017-01-01

    Leaf hydraulic supply is crucial to maintaining open stomata for CO2 capture and plant growth. During drought-induced dehydration, the leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf) declines, which contributes to stomatal closure and, eventually, to leaf death. Previous studies have tended to attribute the decline of Kleaf to embolism in the leaf vein xylem. We visualized at high resolution and quantified experimentally the hydraulic vulnerability of xylem and outside-xylem pathways and modeled their respective influences on plant water transport. Evidence from all approaches indicated that the decline of Kleaf during dehydration arose first and foremost due to the vulnerability of outside-xylem tissues. In vivo x-ray microcomputed tomography of dehydrating leaves of four diverse angiosperm species showed that, at the turgor loss point, only small fractions of leaf vein xylem conduits were embolized, and substantial xylem embolism arose only under severe dehydration. Experiments on an expanded set of eight angiosperm species showed that outside-xylem hydraulic vulnerability explained 75% to 100% of Kleaf decline across the range of dehydration from mild water stress to beyond turgor loss point. Spatially explicit modeling of leaf water transport pointed to a role for reduced membrane conductivity consistent with published data for cells and tissues. Plant-scale modeling suggested that outside-xylem hydraulic vulnerability can protect the xylem from tensions that would induce embolism and disruption of water transport under mild to moderate soil and atmospheric droughts. These findings pinpoint outside-xylem tissues as a central locus for the control of leaf and plant water transport during progressive drought. PMID:28049739

  18. Protecting and respecting the vulnerable: existing regulations or further protections?

    PubMed

    Solomon, Stephanie R

    2013-02-01

    Scholars and policymakers continue to struggle over the meaning of the word "vulnerable" in the context of research ethics. One major reason for the stymied discussions regarding vulnerable populations is that there is no clear distinction between accounts of research vulnerabilities that exist for certain populations and discussions of research vulnerabilities that require special regulations in the context of research ethics policies. I suggest an analytic process by which to ascertain whether particular vulnerable populations should be contenders for additional regulatory protections. I apply this process to two vulnerable populations: the cognitively vulnerable and the economically vulnerable. I conclude that a subset of the cognitively vulnerable require extra protections while the economically vulnerable should be protected by implementing existing regulations more appropriately and rigorously. Unless or until the informed consent process is more adequately implemented and the distributive justice requirement of the Belmont Report is emphasized and operationalized, the economically disadvantaged will remain particularly vulnerable to the harm of exploitation in research.

  19. Epidemiological characteristics of cases of death from tuberculosis and vulnerable territories1

    PubMed Central

    Yamamura, Mellina; Santos-Neto, Marcelino; dos Santos, Rebeca Augusto Neman; Garcia, Maria Concebida da Cunha; Nogueira, Jordana de Almeida; Arcêncio, Ricardo Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Objective: to characterize the differences in the clinical and epidemiological profile of cases of death that had tuberculosis as an immediate or associated cause, and to analyze the spatial distribution of the cases of death from tuberculosis within the territories of Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. Method: an ecological study, in which the population consisted of 114 cases of death from tuberculosis. Bivariate analysis was carried out, as well as point density analysis, defined with the Kernel estimate. Results: of the cases of death from tuberculosis, 50 were the immediate cause and 64 an associated cause. Age (p=.008) and sector responsible for the death certificate (p=.003) were the variables that presented statistically significant associations with the cause of death. The spatial distribution, in both events, did not occur randomly, forming clusters in areas of the municipality. Conclusion: the difference in the profiles of the cases of death from tuberculosis, as a basic cause and as an associated cause, was governed by the age and the sector responsible for the completion of the death certificate. The non-randomness of the spatial distribution of the cases suggests areas that are vulnerable to these events. Knowing these areas can contribute to the choice of disease control strategies. PMID:26487142

  20. Heat Vulnerability Index Mapping for Milwaukee and Wisconsin.

    PubMed

    Christenson, Megan; Geiger, Sarah Dee; Phillips, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ben; Losurdo, Giovanna; Anderson, Henry A

    Extreme heat waves elevate the population's risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality, specifically for vulnerable groups such as older adults and young children. In this context, we developed 2 Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs), one for the state of Wisconsin and one for the Milwaukee metropolitan area. Through the creation of an HVI, state and local agencies will be able to use the indices as a planning tool for extreme heat events. Data used for the HVIs were grouped into 4 categories: (1) population density; (2) health factors; (3) demographic and socioeconomic factors; and (4) natural and built environment factors. These categories were mapped at the Census block group level. Unweighted z-score data were used to determine index scores, which were then mapped by quantiles ranging from "high" to "low" vulnerability. Statewide, Menominee County exhibited the highest vulnerability to extreme heat. Milwaukee HVI findings indicated high vulnerability in the city's inner core versus low vulnerability along the lakeshore. Visualization of vulnerability could help local public health agencies prepare for future extreme heat events.

  1. Are Vulnerability Disclosure Deadlines Justified?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Miles McQueen; Jason L. Wright; Lawrence Wellman

    2011-09-01

    Vulnerability research organizations Rapid7, Google Security team, and Zero Day Initiative recently imposed grace periods for public disclosure of vulnerabilities. The grace periods ranged from 45 to 182 days, after which disclosure might occur with or without an effective mitigation from the affected software vendor. At this time there is indirect evidence that the shorter grace periods of 45 and 60 days may not be practical. However, there is strong evidence that the recently announced Zero Day Initiative grace period of 182 days yields benefit in speeding up the patch creation process, and may be practical for many software products.more » Unfortunately, there is also evidence that the 182 day grace period results in more vulnerability announcements without an available patch.« less

  2. Quantification of Dynamic [18F]FDG Pet Studies in Acute Lung Injury.

    PubMed

    Grecchi, Elisabetta; Veronese, Mattia; Moresco, Rosa Maria; Bellani, Giacomo; Pesenti, Antonio; Messa, Cristina; Bertoldo, Alessandra

    2016-02-01

    This work aims to investigate lung glucose metabolism using 2-deoxy-2-[(18)F]fluoro-D-glucose ([(18)F]FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in acute lung injury (ALI) patients. Eleven ALI patients and five healthy controls underwent a dynamic [(18)F]FDG PET/X-ray computed tomography (CT) scan. The standardized uptake values (SUV) and three different methods for the quantification of glucose metabolism (i.e., ratio, Patlak, and spectral analysis iterative filter, SAIF) were applied both at the region and the voxel levels. SUV reported a lower correlation than the ratio with the net tracer uptake. Patlak and SAIF analyses did not show any significant spatial or quantitative (R(2) > 0.80) difference. The additional information provided by SAIF showed that in lung inflammation, elevated tracer uptake is coupled with abnormal tracer exchanges within and between lung tissue compartments. Full kinetic modeling provides a multi-parametric description of glucose metabolism in the lungs. This allows characterizing the spatial distribution of lung inflammation as well as returning the functional state of the tissues.

  3. The influence of different signal-to-background ratios on spatial resolution and F18-FDG-PET quantification using point spread function and time-of-flight reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Rogasch, Julian Mm; Hofheinz, Frank; Lougovski, Alexandr; Furth, Christian; Ruf, Juri; Großer, Oliver S; Mohnike, Konrad; Hass, Peter; Walke, Mathias; Amthauer, Holger; Steffen, Ingo G

    2014-12-01

    F18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography (FDG-PET) reconstruction algorithms can have substantial influence on quantitative image data used, e.g., for therapy planning or monitoring in oncology. We analyzed radial activity concentration profiles of differently reconstructed FDG-PET images to determine the influence of varying signal-to-background ratios (SBRs) on the respective spatial resolution, activity concentration distribution, and quantification (standardized uptake value [SUV], metabolic tumor volume [MTV]). Measurements were performed on a Siemens Biograph mCT 64 using a cylindrical phantom containing four spheres (diameter, 30 to 70 mm) filled with F18-FDG applying three SBRs (SBR1, 16:1; SBR2, 6:1; SBR3, 2:1). Images were reconstructed employing six algorithms (filtered backprojection [FBP], FBP + time-of-flight analysis [FBP + TOF], 3D-ordered subset expectation maximization [3D-OSEM], 3D-OSEM + TOF, point spread function [PSF], PSF + TOF). Spatial resolution was determined by fitting the convolution of the object geometry with a Gaussian point spread function to radial activity concentration profiles. MTV delineation was performed using fixed thresholds and semiautomatic background-adapted thresholding (ROVER, ABX, Radeberg, Germany). The pairwise Wilcoxon test revealed significantly higher spatial resolutions for PSF + TOF (up to 4.0 mm) compared to PSF, FBP, FBP + TOF, 3D-OSEM, and 3D-OSEM + TOF at all SBRs (each P < 0.05) with the highest differences for SBR1 decreasing to the lowest for SBR3. Edge elevations in radial activity profiles (Gibbs artifacts) were highest for PSF and PSF + TOF declining with decreasing SBR (PSF + TOF largest sphere; SBR1, 6.3%; SBR3, 2.7%). These artifacts induce substantial SUVmax overestimation compared to the reference SUV for PSF algorithms at SBR1 and SBR2 leading to substantial MTV underestimation in threshold-based segmentation. In contrast, both PSF

  4. Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

    2018-01-01

    The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana

  5. US Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vink, G.; Apgar, S.; Batchelor, A.; Carter, C.; Gail, D.; Jarrett, A.; Levine, N.; Morgan, W.; Orlikowski, M.; Pray, T.; Raymar, M.; Siebert, A.; Shawa, T. W.; Wallace, C.

    2002-05-01

    Natural disasters result from the coincidence of natural events with the built environment. Our nation's infrastructure is growing at an exponential rate in many areas of high risk, and the Federal government's liability is increasing proportionally. By superimposing population density with predicted ground motion from earthquakes, historical hurricane tracks, historical tornado locations, and areas within the flood plain, we are able to identify locations of high vulnerability within the United States. We present a comprehensive map of disaster risk for the United States that is being produced for the Senate Natural Hazards Caucus. The map allows for the geographic comparison of natural disaster risk with past disaster declarations, the expenditure of Federal dollars for disaster relief, population increase, and variations of GDP. Every state is vulnerable to natural disasters. Although their frequency varies considerably, the annualized losses for disaster relief from hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods are approximately equivalent. While fast-growing states such as California and Florida remain highly vulnerable, changes in the occurrence of natural events combined with population increases are making areas such as Texas, North Carolina, and the East Coast increasingly vulnerable.

  6. Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kay, Shannon L.; Fischer, Justin W.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Beasley, James C; Boughton, Raoul; Campbell, Tyler A; Cooper, Susan M; Ditchkoff, Stephen S.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Kilgo, John C; Wisely, Samantha M; Wyckoff, A Christy; Vercauteren, Kurt C.; Pipen, Kim M

    2017-01-01

    The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

  7. Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

    PubMed

    Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

    2010-07-01

    This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

  8. Protecting and Respecting the Vulnerable: Existing Regulations or Further Protections?

    PubMed Central

    Solomon, Stephanie R.

    2013-01-01

    Scholars and policymakers continue to struggle over the meaning of the word “vulnerable” in the context of research ethics. One major reason for the stymied discussions regarding vulnerable populations is that there is no clear distinction between accounts of research vulnerabilities that exist for certain populations and discussions of research vulnerabilities that require special regulations in the context of research ethics policies. I suggest an analytic process by which to ascertain whether particular vulnerable populations should be contenders for additional regulatory protections. I apply this process to two vulnerable populations: the cognitively vulnerable and the economically vulnerable. I conclude that a subset of the cognitively vulnerable require extra protections while the economically vulnerable should be protected by implementing existing regulations more appropriately and rigorously. Unless or until the informed consent process is more adequately implemented and the distributive justice requirement of the Belmont Report is emphasized and operationalized, the economically disadvantaged will remain particularly vulnerable to the harm of exploitation in research. PMID:23329228

  9. Vulnerable Youth and Transitions to Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xie, Rongbing; Sen, Bisakha; Foster, E. Michael

    2014-01-01

    This chapter focuses on vulnerable youth, the challenges they face during their transitions to adulthood, and the adverse effects of limited support systems on those transitions. The authors offer recommendations on how adult educators can help facilitate smooth transitions into adulthood for vulnerable youth.

  10. Working memory and attention deficits in adolescent offspring of schizophrenia or bipolar patients: comparing vulnerability markers.

    PubMed

    Diwadkar, Vaibhav A; Goradia, Dhruman; Hosanagar, Avinash; Mermon, Diana; Montrose, Debra M; Birmaher, Boris; Axelson, David; Rajarathinem, R; Haddad, Luay; Amirsadri, Ali; Zajac-Benitez, Caroline; Rajan, Usha; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2011-07-01

    Working memory deficits abound in schizophrenia and attention deficits have been documented in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Adolescent offspring of patients may inherit vulnerabilities in brain circuits that subserve these cognitive domains. Here we assess impairments in offspring of schizophrenia (SCZ-Offspring) or bipolar (BP-Offspring) patients compared to controls (HC) with no family history of mood or psychotic disorders to the second degree. Three groups (n=100 subjects; range: 10-20 yrs) of HC, SCZ-Offspring and BP-Offspring gave informed consent. Working memory was assessed using a delayed spatial memory paradigm with two levels of delay (2s & 12s); sustained attention processing was assessed using the Continuous Performance Task-Identical Pairs version. SCZ-Offspring (but not BP-Offspring) showed impairments in working memory (relative to HC) at the longer memory delay indicating a unique deficit. Both groups showed reduced sensitivity during attention but only BP-Offspring significantly differed from controls. These results suggest unique (working memory/dorsal frontal cortex) and potentially overlapping (attention/fronto-striatal cortex) vulnerability pathways in adolescent offspring of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Working memory and attention assessments in these offspring may assist in the clinical characterization of the adolescents vulnerable to SCZ or BP. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  12. An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

  13. Physically-based modelling of high magnitude torrent events with uncertainty quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Ramirez, Jorge; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

    2017-04-01

    High magnitude torrent events are associated with the rapid propagation of vast quantities of water and available sediment downslope where human settlements may be established. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to these events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. The specific contribution of the presented work describes a procedure simulate these damaging events by applying physically-based modelling and to include uncertainty information about the simulated results. This is a first step in the development of vulnerability curves based on several intensity parameters (i.e. maximum velocity, sediment deposition depth and impact pressure). The investigation process begins with the collection, organization and interpretation of detailed post-event documentation and photograph-based observation data of affected structures in three sites that exemplify the impact of highly destructive mudflows and flood occurrences on settlements in Switzerland. Hazard intensity proxies are then simulated with the physically-based FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993). Prior to modelling, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to support a better understanding of model behaviour, parameterization and the quantification of uncertainties (Song et al., 2015). The inclusion of information describing the degree of confidence in the simulated results supports the credibility of vulnerability curves developed with the modelled data. First, key parameters are identified and selected based on literature review. Truncated a priori ranges of parameter values were then defined by expert solicitation. Local sensitivity analysis is performed based on manual calibration to provide an understanding of the parameters relevant to the case studies of interest. Finally, automated parameter estimation is performed to comprehensively search for optimal parameter combinations and associated values, which are evaluated using the

  14. Numerical Uncertainty Quantification for Radiation Analysis Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Brooke; Blattnig, Steve; Clowdsley, Martha

    2007-01-01

    Recently a new emphasis has been placed on engineering applications of space radiation analyses and thus a systematic effort of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. There are two sources of uncertainty in geometric discretization addressed in this paper that need to be quantified in order to understand the total uncertainty in estimating space radiation exposures. One source of uncertainty is in ray tracing, as the number of rays increase the associated uncertainty decreases, but the computational expense increases. Thus, a cost benefit analysis optimizing computational time versus uncertainty is needed and is addressed in this paper. The second source of uncertainty results from the interpolation over the dose vs. depth curves that is needed to determine the radiation exposure. The question, then, is what is the number of thicknesses that is needed to get an accurate result. So convergence testing is performed to quantify the uncertainty associated with interpolating over different shield thickness spatial grids.

  15. Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also

  16. Working up a Debt: Students as Vulnerable Consumers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robson, Julie; Farquhar, Jillian Dawes; Hindle, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    Students are recognized as vulnerable consumers where financial matters are concerned, particularly with reference to indebtedness. This study examines student indebtedness in order to initiate wider debate about student vulnerability. We consider vulnerability as dynamic and temporal, linked to an event that renders the consumer susceptible to…

  17. Reconceptualizing Vulnerability in Personal Narrative Writing with Youths

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Elisabeth

    2014-01-01

    Through a student/teacher classroom conflict, the author explores ways adults produce student writers as vulnerable. Drawing on post-structural concepts of adolescence, identity production, interrogation, and vulnerability, the author details how an English teacher invited students to perform vulnerability in personal narratives about issues like…

  18. The Relationship between Grandiose and Vulnerable (Hypersensitive) Narcissism

    PubMed Central

    Jauk, Emanuel; Weigle, Elena; Lehmann, Konrad; Benedek, Mathias; Neubauer, Aljoscha C.

    2017-01-01

    Narcissistic grandiosity is characterized by overt expressions of feelings of superiority and entitlement, while narcissistic vulnerability reflects hypersensitivity and introversive self-absorbedness. Clinical evidence suggests that grandiosity is accompanied by vulnerable aspects, pointing to a common foundation. Subclinical personality research, however, views grandiose and vulnerable narcissism as independent traits. Grandiose narcissism displays substantial correlation with extraversion, while vulnerable narcissism correlates highly with introversion. We investigated if (1) controlling for intro-/extraversion might reveal a “common core” of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism, and if (2) the correlation between both aspects might be higher at higher levels of narcissism. Latent variable structural equation modeling and segmented regression analysis confirmed these hypotheses in a large non-clinical sample (N = 1,006). Interindividual differences in intro-/extraversion mask the common core of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. The association between both aspects increases at high levels (upper 10%) of grandiose narcissism, which suggests a possible transition to clinically relevant (pathological) narcissism. PMID:28955288

  19. Statistics of software vulnerability detection in certification testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

    2018-05-01

    The paper discusses practical aspects of introduction of the methods to detect software vulnerability in the day-to-day activities of the accredited testing laboratory. It presents the approval results of the vulnerability detection methods as part of the study of the open source software and the software that is a test object of the certification tests under information security requirements, including software for communication networks. Results of the study showing the allocation of identified vulnerabilities by types of attacks, country of origin, programming languages used in the development, methods for detecting vulnerability, etc. are given. The experience of foreign information security certification systems related to the detection of certified software vulnerabilities is analyzed. The main conclusion based on the study is the need to implement practices for developing secure software in the development life cycle processes. The conclusions and recommendations for the testing laboratories on the implementation of the vulnerability analysis methods are laid down.

  20. A Comparative Study on Physical Vulnerability of Urban Area against Natural Hazards: Importance of Health Promoting Approach in Civil Engineering.

    PubMed

    Ahadnezhad Reveshty, Mohsen; Kamelifar, Mohammad Javad; Ranjbarnia, Behzad; Pashaiifar, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of urban vulnerability to earthquakes can be consid-ered as an Ill-structured problem in urban in both unplanned and planned areas. Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) provides a way to integrate different spatial data layers in a geographic information system to create composite maps representing risk. We utilized MCE in a raster Geographic Information System (GIS) to evaluate risk in vulnerable tissues of Tabriz, Iran zone. In this MCE physical risk factors and sub-factors were included and were weighted by experts. Afterward data entered to GIS and then the layers of the criteria were exported. The obtained results were entered to IDRISI and fuzzified. Ultimately the final map of physical vulnerability was outputted by overlaying order. Vulnerable tissues are highly consistent to non-official areas. However, the planned area which is called Valiasr is in low risky condition and this condition is desirable in crisis times. Here, we observe the preference of physical pre-planning operations. The links between urban planning and health are many and varied. Environmental, social and economic conditions in cities can have both positive and negative influences on human health and centre. Urban planning and related professions play an important role in shaping those conditions.