Quantifying Livestock Heat Stress Impacts in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

Livestock heat stress, especially in regions of the developing world with limited adaptive capacity, has a largely unquantified impact on food supply. Though dominated by ambient air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation all affect heat stress, which can decrease livestock growth, milk production, reproduction rates, and mortality. Indices like the thermal-humidity index (THI) are used to quantify the heat stress experienced from climate variables. Livestock experience differing impacts at different index critical thresholds that are empirically determined and specific to species and breed. This lack of understanding has been highlighted in several studies with a limited knowledge of the critical thresholds of heat stress in native livestock breeds, as well as the current and future impact of heat stress,. As adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change depend on a solid quantitative foundation, this knowledge gap has limited such efforts. To address the lack of study, we have investigated heat stress impacts in the pastoral system of Sub-Saharan West Africa. We used a stochastic weather generator to quantify both the historic and future variability of heat stress. This approach models temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, the climate variables controlling heat stress. Incorporating large-scale climate as covariates into this framework provides a better historical fit and allows us to include future CMIP5 GCM projections to examine the climate change impacts on heat stress. Health and production data allow us to examine the influence of this variability on livestock directly, and are considered in conjunction with the confounding impacts of fodder and water access. This understanding provides useful information to decision makers looking to mitigate the impacts of climate change and can provide useful seasonal forecasts of heat stress risk. A comparison of the current and future heat stress conditions based on

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health.MethodsZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NOx, EC, PM2.5, SO4, O3) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error.Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs.ResultsSubstantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3–85% for population error, and 31–85% for total error. When CO, NOx or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copoll

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-01-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base-case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

EPA Science Inventory

BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2008-03-01

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land-management objectives....

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-07-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of

Quantifying the Detrimental Impacts of Land-Use and Management Change on European Forest Bird Populations

PubMed Central

Wade, Amy S. I.; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J.; Gregory, Richard D.; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J.

2013-01-01

The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. PMID:23704997

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Quantifying the impact of expanded age group campaigns for polio eradication.

PubMed

Wagner, Bradley G; Behrend, Matthew R; Klein, Daniel J; Upfill-Brown, Alexander M; Eckhoff, Philip A; Hu, Hao

2014-01-01

A priority of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) 2013-2018 strategic plan is to evaluate the potential impact on polio eradication resulting from expanding one or more Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) to children beyond age five-years in polio endemic countries. It has been hypothesized that such expanded age group (EAG) campaigns could accelerate polio eradication by eliminating immunity gaps in older children that may have resulted from past periods of low vaccination coverage. Using an individual-based mathematical model, we quantified the impact of EAG campaigns in terms of probability of elimination, reduction in polio transmission and age stratified immunity levels. The model was specifically calibrated to seroprevalence data from a polio-endemic region: Zaria, Nigeria. We compared the impact of EAG campaigns, which depend only on age, to more targeted interventions which focus on reaching missed populations. We found that EAG campaigns would not significantly improve prospects for polio eradication; the probability of elimination increased by 8% (from 24% at baseline to 32%) when expanding three annual SIAs to 5-14 year old children and by 18% when expanding all six annual SIAs. In contrast, expanding only two of the annual SIAs to target hard-to-reach populations at modest vaccination coverage-representing less than one tenth of additional vaccinations required for the six SIA EAG scenario-increased the probability of elimination by 55%. Implementation of EAG campaigns in polio endemic regions would not improve prospects for eradication. In endemic areas, vaccination campaigns which do not target missed populations will not benefit polio eradication efforts.

Quantifying the Relationship between Curvature and Electric Potential in Lipid Bilayers.

PubMed

Bruhn, Dennis S; Lomholt, Michael A; Khandelia, Himanshu

2016-06-02

Cellular membranes mediate vital cellular processes by being subject to curvature and transmembrane electrical potentials. Here we build upon the existing theory for flexoelectricity in liquid crystals to quantify the coupling between lipid bilayer curvature and membrane potentials. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we show that headgroup dipole moments, the lateral pressure profile across the bilayer, and spontaneous curvature all systematically change with increasing membrane potentials. In particular, there is a linear dependence between the bending moment (the product of bending rigidity and spontaneous curvature) and the applied membrane potentials. We show that biologically relevant membrane potentials can induce biologically relevant curvatures corresponding to radii of around 500 nm. The implications of flexoelectricity in lipid bilayers are thus likely to be of considerable consequence both in biology and in model lipid bilayer systems.

Environmental assessment of anaerobically digested sludge reuse in agriculture: potential impacts of emerging micropollutants.

PubMed

Hospido, Almudena; Carballa, Marta; Moreira, Maite; Omil, Francisco; Lema, Juan M; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2010-05-01

Agricultural application of sewage sludge has been emotionally discussed in the last decades, because the latter contains organic micropollutants with unknown fate and risk potential. In this work, the reuse of anaerobically digested sludge in agriculture is evaluated from an environmental point of view by using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. More specifically, the potential impacts of emerging micropollutants, such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, present in the sludge have been quantified. Four scenarios were considered according to the temperature of the anaerobic digestion (mesophilic or thermophilic) and the sludge retention time (20 or 10d), and they have been compared with the non-treated sludge. From an environmental point of view, the disposal of undigested sludge is not the most suitable alternative, except for global warming due to the dominance (65-85%) of the indirect emissions associated to the electricity use. Nutrient-related direct emissions dominate the eutrophication category impact in all the scenarios (>71.4%), although a beneficial impact related to the avoidance of industrial fertilisers production is also quantified (up to 6.7%). In terms of human and terrestrial toxicity, the direct emissions of heavy metals to soil dominate these two impact categories (>70%), and the contribution of other micropollutants is minimal. Moreover, only six (Galaxolide, Tonalide, Diazepam, Ibuprofen, Sulfamethoxazole and 17alpha-ethinyloestradiol) out of the 13 substances considered are really significant since they account for more than 95% of the overall micropollutants impact.

Potential social and economic impacts of the hemlock woolly adelgid in southern New England

Treesearch

Xiaoshu Li; Evan L. Preisser; Kevin J. Boyle; Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew Liebhold; David. Orwig

2014-01-01

Adelges tsugae (Hemlock Woolly Adelgid; HWA) is a non-native forest insect that causes defoliation and mortality of hemlock in the eastern US. We quantified the extent to which people are potentially affected by the spread of HWA infestation where they live and where they recreate. We also considered how these impacts might change through time...

Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.

2012-12-01

Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs volume

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Nicole M. Vaillant; Jessica R. Haas; Krista M. Gebert; Keith D. Stockmann

2013-01-01

Modeling the impacts and effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments is a pressing issue within the wildfire management community. Prospective evaluation of fuel treatments allows for comparison of alternative treatment strategies in terms of socioeconomic and ecological impacts and facilitates analysis of tradeoffs across land management objectives (Stockmann et al...

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Quantifiers are incrementally interpreted in context, more than less

PubMed Central

Urbach, Thomas P.; DeLong, Katherine A.; Kutas, Marta

2015-01-01

Language interpretation is often assumed to be incremental. However, our studies of quantifier expressions in isolated sentences found N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) evidence for partial but not full immediate quantifier interpretation (Urbach & Kutas, 2010). Here we tested similar quantifier expressions in pragmatically supporting discourse contexts (Alex was an unusual toddler. Most/Few kids prefer sweets/vegetables…) while participants made plausibility judgments (Experiment 1) or read for comprehension (Experiment 2). Control Experiments 3A (plausibility) and 3B (comprehension) removed the discourse contexts. Quantifiers always modulated typical and/or atypical word N400 amplitudes. However, only the real-time N400 effects only in Experiment 2 mirrored offline quantifier and typicality crossover interaction effects for plausibility ratings and cloze probabilities. We conclude that quantifier expressions can be interpreted fully and immediately, though pragmatic and task variables appear to impact the speed and/or depth of quantifier interpretation. PMID:26005285

Method for quantifying nitromethane in blood as a potential biomarker of halonitromethane exposure.

PubMed

Alwis, K Udeni; Blount, Benjamin C; Silva, Lalith K; Smith, Mitchell M; Loose, Karl-Hermann

2008-04-01

The cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of nitromethane and its halogenated analogues in mammals raise concerns about potential toxicity to humans. This study shows that halonitromethanes are not stable in human blood and undergo dehalogenation to form nitromethane. We quantified nitromethane in human blood using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) headspace sampling coupled with gas chromatography (GC) and high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). The limit of detection was 0.01 microg/L with a linear calibration curve spanning 3 orders of magnitude. This method employs isotope dilution to precisely quantify trace amounts of nitromethane (coefficient of variation <6%). At three spiked concentrations of nitromethane, method accuracy ranged from 88 to 99%. We applied this method to blood samples collected from 632 people with no known occupational exposure to nitromethane or halonitromethanes. Nitromethane was detected in all blood samples tested (range: 0.28-3.79 microg/L, median: 0.66 microg/L). Time-course experiments with trichloronitromethane- and tribromonitromethane-spiked blood showed that nitromethane was the major product formed (1 nmole tribromonitromethane formed 0.59 nmole of nitromethane, whereas 1 nmole trichloronitromethane formed 0.77 nmole nitromethane). Nitromethane may form endogenously from peroxynitrite: nitromethane concentrations increased proportionately in blood samples spiked with peroxynitrite. Blood nitromethane can be a biomarker of exposure to both nitromethane and halonitromethanes. This sensitive, accurate, and precise analytical method can be used to determine baseline blood nitromethane level in the general population. It can also be used to study the health impact from exposure to nitromethane and halonitromethanes in occupational environments and to assess trichloronitromethane (chloropicrin) exposure in chemical terrorism investigations.

Webinar Presentation: Particle-Resolved Simulations for Quantifying Black Carbon Climate Impact and Model Uncertainty

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation, Particle-Resolved Simulations for Quantifying Black Carbon Climate Impact and Model Uncertainty, was given at the STAR Black Carbon 2016 Webinar Series: Changing Chemistry over Time held on Oct. 31, 2016.

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

An experimental method to quantify the impact fatigue behavior of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bangbiao; Kanopoulos, Patrick; Luo, Xuedong; Xia, Kaiwen

2014-07-01

Fatigue failure is an important failure mode of engineering materials. The fatigue behavior of both ductile and brittle materials has been under investigation for many years. While the fatigue failure of ductile materials is well established, only a few studies have been carried out on brittle materials. In addition, most fatigue studies on rocks are conducted under quasi-static loading conditions. To address engineering applications involving repeated blasting, this paper proposes a method to quantify the impact fatigue properties of rocks. In this method, a split Hopkinson pressure bar system is adopted to exert impact load on the sample, which is placed in a specially designed steel sleeve to limit the displacement of the sample and thus to enable the recovery of the rock after each impact. The method is then applied to Laurentian granite, which is fine-grained and isotropic material. The results demonstrate that this is a practicable means to conduct impact fatigue tests on rocks and other brittle solids.

Quantifying long-term human impact in contrasting environments: Statistical analysis of modern and fossil pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broothaerts, Nils; López-Sáez, José Antonio; Verstraeten, Gert

2017-04-01

Reconstructing and quantifying human impact is an important step to understand human-environment interactions in the past. Quantitative measures of human impact on the landscape are needed to fully understand long-term influence of anthropogenic land cover changes on the global climate, ecosystems and geomorphic processes. Nevertheless, quantifying past human impact is not straightforward. Recently, multivariate statistical analysis of fossil pollen records have been proposed to characterize vegetation changes and to get insights in past human impact. Although statistical analysis of fossil pollen data can provide useful insights in anthropogenic driven vegetation changes, still it cannot be used as an absolute quantification of past human impact. To overcome this shortcoming, in this study fossil pollen records were included in a multivariate statistical analysis (cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS)) together with modern pollen data and modern vegetation data. The information on the modern pollen and vegetation dataset can be used to get a better interpretation of the representativeness of the fossil pollen records, and can result in a full quantification of human impact in the past. This methodology was applied in two contrasting environments: SW Turkey and Central Spain. For each region, fossil pollen data from different study sites were integrated, together with modern pollen data and information on modern vegetation. In this way, arboreal cover, grazing pressure and agricultural activities in the past were reconstructed and quantified. The data from SW Turkey provides new integrated information on changing human impact through time in the Sagalassos territory, and shows that human impact was most intense during the Hellenistic and Roman Period (ca. 2200-1750 cal a BP) and decreased and changed in nature afterwards. The data from central Spain shows for several sites that arboreal cover decreases bellow 5% from the Feudal period

A new methodology for quantifying the impact of water repellency on the filtering function of soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Karin; Deurer, Markus; Kawamoto, Ken; Hiradate, Syuntaro; Komatsu, Toshiko; Clothier, Brent

2014-05-01

Soils deliver a range of ecosystem services, and some of the most valuable relate to the regulating services resulting from the buffering and filtering of solutes by soil. However, it is commonly accepted that soil water repellency (SWR) can lead to finger flow and preferential flow. Yet, there have been few attempts to quantify the impact of such flow phenomena on the buffering and filtering of solutes. No method is available to quantify directly how SWR affects the transport of reactive solutes. We have closed this gap and developed a new method for quantifying solute transport by novel experiments with water-repellent soils. It involves sequentially applying two liquids, one water, and the other a reference fully wetting liquid, namely, aqueous ethanol, to the same intact soil core with air-drying between the application of the two liquids. Our results highlight that sorption experiments are necessary to complement our new method to ascertain directly the impact of SWR on the filtering of a solute. We conducted transport and sorption experiments, by applying our new method, with the herbicide 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and two Andosol top-soils; one from Japan and the other one from New Zealand. Breakthrough curves from the water experiments were characterized by preferential flow with high initial concentrations, tailing and a long prevalence of solutes remaining in the soil. Our results clearly demonstrate and quantify the impact of SWR on the leaching of this herbicide. This technique for quantifying the reduction of the soil's filtering efficiency by SWR enables assessment of the increased risk of groundwater contamination by solutes exogenously applied to water-repellent soils.

Asteroid Geophysics and Quantifying the Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sears, D.; Wooden, D. H.; Korycanksy, D. G.

2015-01-01

Probably the major challenge in understanding, quantifying, and mitigating the effects of an impact on Earth is understanding the nature of the impactor. Of the roughly 25 meteorite craters on the Earth that have associated meteorites, all but one was produced by an iron meteorite and only one was produced by a stony meteorite. Equally important, even meteorites of a given chemical class produce a wide variety of behavior in the atmosphere. This is because they show considerable diversity in their mechanical properties which have a profound influence on the behavior of meteorites during atmospheric passage. Some stony meteorites are weak and do not reach the surface or reach the surface as thousands of relatively harmless pieces. Some stony meteorites roll into a maximum drag configuration and are strong enough to remain intact so a large single object reaches the surface. Others have high concentrations of water that may facilitate disruption. However, while meteorite falls and meteorites provide invaluable information on the physical nature of the objects entering the atmosphere, there are many unknowns concerning size and scale that can only be determined by from the pre-atmospheric properties of the asteroids. Their internal structure, their thermal properties, their internal strength and composition, will all play a role in determining the behavior of the object as it passes through the atmosphere, whether it produces an airblast and at what height, and the nature of the impact and amount and distribution of ejecta.

Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil.

PubMed

McCay, Deborah French; Rowe, Jill Jennings; Whittier, Nicole; Sankaranarayanan, Sankar; Etkin, Dagmar Schmidt

2004-02-27

Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments. Exposure of aquatic habitats and organisms to whole oil and toxic components is estimated in the biological model, followed by estimation of resulting acute mortality and ecological losses. Natural resource damages are based on estimated costs to restore equivalent resources and/or ecological services, using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) and Resource Equivalency Analysis (REA) methods. Oil spill modeling was performed for two spill sites in central San Francisco Bay, three spill sizes (20th, 50th, and 95th percentile volumes from tankers and larger freight vessels, based on an analysis of likely spill volumes given a spill has occurred) and four oil types (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The scenarios were run in stochastic mode to determine the frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation of fates, impacts, and damages. This work is significant as it demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method for estimating potential impacts and financial consequences that may be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses. The statistically-defined spill volumes and consequences provide an objective measure of the magnitude, range and variability of impacts to wildlife, aquatic organisms and shorelines for potential spills of four oil/fuel types, each having distinct environmental fates and effects.

Quantifying the impact of septic tank systems on eutrophication risk in rural headwaters.

PubMed

Withers, P J A; Jarvie, H P; Stoate, C

2011-04-01

Septic tank systems (STS) are a potential source of nutrient emissions to surface waters but few data exist in the UK to quantify their significance for eutrophication. We monitored the impact of STS on nutrient concentrations in a stream network around a typical English village over a 1-year period. Septic tank effluent discharging via a pipe directly into one stream was highly concentrated in soluble N (8-63mgL(-1)) and P (<1-14mgL(-1)) and other nutrients (Na, K, Cl, B and Mn) typical of detergent and household inputs. Ammonium-N (NH(4)N) and soluble reactive P (SRP) fractions were dominant (70-85% of total) and average concentrations of nitrite-N (NO(2)N) were above levels considered harmful to fish (0.1mgL(-1)). Lower nutrient concentrations were recorded at a ditch and a stream site, but range and average values downstream of rural habitation were still 4 to 10-fold greater than those in upstream sections. At the ditch site, where flow volumes were low, annual flow-weighted concentrations of NH(4)N and SRP increased from 0.04 and 0.07mgL(-1), respectively upstream to 0.55 and 0.21mgL(-1) downstream. At the stream site, flow volumes were twice as large and flow-weighted concentrations increased much less; from 0.04 to 0.21mgL(-1) for NH(4)N and from 0.06 to 0.08mgL(-1) for SRP. At all sites, largest nutrient concentrations were recorded under low flow and stream discharge was the most important factor determining the eutrophication impact of septic tank systems. The very high concentrations, intercorrelation and dilution patterns of SRP, NH(4)-N and the effluent markers Na and B suggested that soakaways in the heavy clay catchment soils were not retaining and treating the septic tank effluents efficiently, with profound implications for stream biodiversity. Water companies, water regulators and rural communities therefore need to be made more aware of the potential impacts of STS on water quality so that their management can be optimised to reduce the risk of

Modeling In-stream Tidal Energy Extraction and Its Potential Environmental Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Copping, Andrea

In recent years, there has been growing interest in harnessing in-stream tidal energy in response to concerns of increasing energy demand and to mitigate climate change impacts. While many studies have been conducted to assess and map tidal energy resources, efforts for quantifying the associated potential environmental impacts have been limited. This paper presents the development of a tidal turbine module within a three-dimensional unstructured-grid coastal ocean model and its application for assessing the potential environmental impacts associated with tidal energy extraction. The model is used to investigate in-stream tidal energy extraction and associated impacts on estuarine hydrodynamic and biologicalmore » processes in a tidally dominant estuary. A series of numerical experiments with varying numbers and configurations of turbines installed in an idealized estuary were carried out to assess the changes in the hydrodynamics and biological processes due to tidal energy extraction. Model results indicated that a large number of turbines are required to extract the maximum tidal energy and cause significant reduction of the volume flux. Preliminary model results also indicate that extraction of tidal energy increases vertical mixing and decreases flushing rate in a stratified estuary. The tidal turbine model was applied to simulate tidal energy extraction in Puget Sound, a large fjord-like estuary in the Pacific Northwest coast.« less

Quantification, Prediction, and the Online Impact of Sentence Truth-Value: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Do negative quantifiers like “few” reduce people’s ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the “final” interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., “Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results”). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words. PMID:26375784

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branstator, Grant; Teng, Haiyan

2012-06-01

To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model-to-model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

Mapping the Green Infrastructure potential - and it's water-energy impacts on New York City roof Tops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Rebecka; Destouni, Georgia; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Green Roofs have the potential to provide multiple services in cities. Besides acting as carbon sinks, providing noise reduction and decreasing air pollution - without requiring any additional "land-use" in a city (only roof-use), green roofs have a quantifiable potential to reduce direct and indirect energy and water use. They enhance the insulating capacity of a conventional residential roof and thereby decrease both cooling demands in summer and heating demands in winter. The former is further mitigated by the cooling effect of evapotranspiration from the roofs In New York City green roofs are additionally a valuable component of reducing "combined sewer overflows", as these roofs can retain storm water. This can improve water quality in the city's rivers as well as decrease the total volume of water treated in the city's wastewater treatment plants, thereby indirectly reduce energy demands. The impacts of green roofs on NYC's water-energy nexus has been initially studied (Engström et. al, forthcoming). The present study expands that work to more comprehensively investigate the potential of this type of nature-based solution in a dense city. By employing Geographical Information Systems analysis, the roof top area of New York City is analysed and roof space suitable for green roofs of varying types (ranging from extensive to intensive) are mapped and quantified. The total green roof area is then connected with estimates of potential water-energy benefits (and costs) of each type of green roof. The results indicate where green roofs can be beneficially installed throughout the city, and quantifies the related impacts on both water and energy use. These outputs can provide policy makers with valuable support when facing investment decisions in green infrastructure, in a city where there is great interest for these types of nature-based solutions.

Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

PubMed

Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

2015-08-18

Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition

PubMed Central

Phalkey, Revati K.; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

2015-01-01

Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future. PMID:26216952

Incremental comprehension of spoken quantifier sentences: Evidence from brain potentials.

PubMed

Freunberger, Dominik; Nieuwland, Mante S

2016-09-01

Do people incrementally incorporate the meaning of quantifier expressions to understand an unfolding sentence? Most previous studies concluded that quantifiers do not immediately influence how a sentence is understood based on the observation that online N400-effects differed from offline plausibility judgments. Those studies, however, used serial visual presentation (SVP), which involves unnatural reading. In the current ERP-experiment, we presented spoken positive and negative quantifier sentences ("Practically all/practically no postmen prefer delivering mail, when the weather is good/bad during the day"). Different from results obtained in a previously reported SVP-study (Nieuwland, 2016) sentence truth-value N400 effects occurred in positive and negative quantifier sentences alike, reflecting fully incremental quantifier comprehension. This suggests that the prosodic information available during spoken language comprehension supports the generation of online predictions for upcoming words and that, at least for quantifier sentences, comprehension of spoken language may proceed more incrementally than comprehension during SVP reading. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Photochemical Grid Modelling Study to Assess Potential Air Quality Impacts Associated with Energy Development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, L. K.; Morris, R. E.; Zapert, J.; Cook, F.; Koo, B.; Rasmussen, D.; Jung, J.; Grant, J.; Johnson, J.; Shah, T.; Pavlovic, T.

2015-12-01

The Colorado Air Resource Management Modeling Study (CARMMS) was funded by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to predict the impacts from future federal and non-federal energy development in Colorado and Northern New Mexico. The study used the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model (PGM) to quantify potential impacts from energy development from BLM field office planning areas. CAMx source apportionment technology was used to track the impacts from multiple (14) different emissions source regions (i.e. field office areas) within one simulation, as well as to assess the cumulative impact of emissions from all source regions combined. The energy development emissions estimates were for the year 2021 for three different development scenarios: (1) low; (2) high; (3) high with emissions mitigation. Impacts on air quality (AQ) including ozone, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and air quality related values (AQRVs) such as atmospheric deposition, regional haze and changes in Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) of lakes were quantified, and compared to establish threshold levels. In this presentation, we present a brief summary of the how the emission scenarios were developed, we compare the emission totals for each scenario, and then focus on the ozone impacts for each scenario to assess: (1). the difference in potential ozone impacts under the different development scenarios and (2). to establish the sensitivity of the ozone impacts to different emissions levels. Region-wide ozone impacts will be presented as well as impacts at specific locations with ozone monitors.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

PubMed

Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

2013-10-01

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Quantifying climate change impacts on runoff of zoonotic pathogens from land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterk, Ankie; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Stergiadi, Maria; de Nijs, Ton; Schijven, Jack

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown a correlation between rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks. One of the mechanisms whereby rainfall may cause outbreaks is through an increase in runoff of animal faeces from fields to surface waters. Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by water recreation or drinking-water consumption. Climate changes affect runoff because of increasing winter precipitation and more extreme precipitation events, as well as changes in evaporation. Furthermore, drier summers are leading to longer periods of high soil moisture deficits, increasing the hydrophobicity of soil and consequently changing infiltration capacities. A conceptual model is designed to describe the impacts of climate changes on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which are both directly and indirectly affecting pathogen loads in the environment and subsequent public health risks. One of the major outcomes was the lack of quantitative data and limited qualitative analyses of impacts of climate changes on pathogen runoff. Quantifying the processes by which micro-organisms are transported from fields to waters is important to be able to estimate such impacts to enable targeted implementation of effective intervention measures. A quantitative model using Mathematica software will be developed to estimate concentrations of pathogens originating from overland flow during runoff events. Different input sources will be included by applying different land-use scenarios, including point source faecal pollution from dairy cows and geese and diffuse source pollution by fertilization. Zoonotic pathogens, i.e. Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter, were selected based on transport properties, faecal loads and disease burden. Transport and survival rates of these pathogens are determined including effects of changes in precipitation but also temperature induced

Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on streamflow at seasonal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Z.; Zhang, L.; Li, Y.; Zhang, C.

2017-12-01

Both climate change and human activities have induced changes to hydrology. The quantification of their impacts on streamflow is a challenge, especially at the seasonal scale due to seasonality of climate and human impacts, i.e., water use for irrigation and water storage and release due to reservoir operation. In this study, the decomposition method based on the Budyko hypothesis is extended to the seasonal scale and is used to quantify the climate and human impacts on annual and seasonal streamflow changes. The results are further compared and verified with those simulated by the hydrological method of abcd model. Data are split into two periods (1953-1974 and 1975-2005) to quantify the change. Three seasons, including wet, dry and irrigation seasons are defined by introducing the monthly aridity index. In general, results showed a satisfactory agreement between the Budyko decomposition method and abcd model. Both climate change and human activities were found to induce a decrease in streamflow at the annual scale, with 67% of the change contributed by human activities. At the seasonal scale, the human-induced contribution to the reduced stream flow was 64% and 73% for dry and wet seasons, respectively; whereas in the irrigation season, the impact of human activities on reducing the streamflow was more pronounced (180%) since the climate contributes to increased streamflow. In addition, the quantification results were analyzed for each month in the wet season to reveal the effects of intense precipitation and reservoir operation rules during flood season.

Quantifying Acoustic Impacts on Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles: Methods and Analytical Approach for Phase III Training and Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-16

Acoustic Impacts on Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles: Methods and Analytical Approach for Phase III Training and Testing Sarah A. Blackstock Joseph O...December 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Quantifying Acoustic Impacts on Marine Mammals and Sea Turtles: Methods and Analytical Approach for Phase III...Navy’s Phase III Study Areas as described in each Environmental Impact Statement/ Overseas Environmental Impact Statement and describes the methods

Quantifying soil moisture impacts on light use efficiency across biomes.

PubMed

Stocker, Benjamin D; Zscheischler, Jakob; Keenan, Trevor F; Prentice, I Colin; Peñuelas, Josep; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2018-06-01

Terrestrial primary productivity and carbon cycle impacts of droughts are commonly quantified using vapour pressure deficit (VPD) data and remotely sensed greenness, without accounting for soil moisture. However, soil moisture limitation is known to strongly affect plant physiology. Here, we investigate light use efficiency, the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to absorbed light. We derive its fractional reduction due to soil moisture (fLUE), separated from VPD and greenness changes, using artificial neural networks trained on eddy covariance data, multiple soil moisture datasets and remotely sensed greenness. This reveals substantial impacts of soil moisture alone that reduce GPP by up to 40% at sites located in sub-humid, semi-arid or arid regions. For sites in relatively moist climates, we find, paradoxically, a muted fLUE response to drying soil, but reduced fLUE under wet conditions. fLUE identifies substantial drought impacts that are not captured when relying solely on VPD and greenness changes and, when seasonally recurring, are missed by traditional, anomaly-based drought indices. Counter to common assumptions, fLUE reductions are largest in drought-deciduous vegetation, including grasslands. Our results highlight the necessity to account for soil moisture limitation in terrestrial primary productivity data products, especially for drought-related assessments. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Total Reducing Capacity in Aquifer Minerals and Sediments: Quantifying the Potential to Attenuate Cr(VI) in Groundwater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sisman, S. Lara

2015-07-20

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), is present in the environment as a byproduct of industrial processes. Due to its mobility and toxicity, it is crucial to attenuate or remove Cr(VI) from the environment. The objective of this investigation was to quantify potential natural attenuation, or reduction capacity, of reactive minerals and aquifer sediments. Samples of reduced-iron containing minerals such as ilmenite, as well as Puye Formation sediments representing a contaminated aquifer in New Mexico, were reacted with chromate. The change in Cr(VI) during the reaction was used to calculate reduction capacity. This study found that minerals that contain reduced iron, such asmore » ilmenite, have high reducing capacities. The data indicated that sample history may impact reduction capacity tests due to surface passivation. Further, this investigation identified areas for future research including: a) refining the relationships between iron content, magnetic susceptibility and reduction capacity, and b) long term kinetic testing using fresh aquifer sediments.« less

Tobacco-free economy: A SAM-based multiplier model to quantify the impact of changes in tobacco demand in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Husain, Muhammad Jami; Khondker, Bazlul Haque

2016-01-01

In Bangladesh, where tobacco use is pervasive, reducing tobacco use is economically beneficial. This paper uses the latest Bangladesh social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model to quantify the economy-wide impact of demand-driven changes in tobacco cultivation, bidi industries, and cigarette industries. First, we compute various income multiplier values (i.e. backward linkages) for all production activities in the economy to quantify the impact of changes in demand for the corresponding products on gross output for 86 activities, demand for 86 commodities, returns to four factors of production, and income for eight household groups. Next, we rank tobacco production activities by income multiplier values relative to other sectors. Finally, we present three hypothetical 'tobacco-free economy' scenarios by diverting demand from tobacco products into other sectors of the economy and quantifying the economy-wide impact. The simulation exercises with three different tobacco-free scenarios show that, compared to the baseline values, total sectoral output increases by 0.92%, 1.3%, and 0.75%. The corresponding increases in the total factor returns (i.e. GDP) are 1.57%, 1.75%, and 1.75%. Similarly, total household income increases by 1.40%, 1.58%, and 1.55%.

Tobacco-free economy: A SAM-based multiplier model to quantify the impact of changes in tobacco demand in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Husain, Muhammad Jami; Khondker, Bazlul Haque

2017-01-01

In Bangladesh, where tobacco use is pervasive, reducing tobacco use is economically beneficial. This paper uses the latest Bangladesh social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model to quantify the economy-wide impact of demand-driven changes in tobacco cultivation, bidi industries, and cigarette industries. First, we compute various income multiplier values (i.e. backward linkages) for all production activities in the economy to quantify the impact of changes in demand for the corresponding products on gross output for 86 activities, demand for 86 commodities, returns to four factors of production, and income for eight household groups. Next, we rank tobacco production activities by income multiplier values relative to other sectors. Finally, we present three hypothetical ‘tobacco-free economy’ scenarios by diverting demand from tobacco products into other sectors of the economy and quantifying the economy-wide impact. The simulation exercises with three different tobacco-free scenarios show that, compared to the baseline values, total sectoral output increases by 0.92%, 1.3%, and 0.75%. The corresponding increases in the total factor returns (i.e. GDP) are 1.57%, 1.75%, and 1.75%. Similarly, total household income increases by 1.40%, 1.58%, and 1.55%. PMID:28845091

When things don't add up: quantifying impacts of multiple stressors from individual metabolism to ecosystem processing.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Sullivan, Lauren L; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2018-04-01

Ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors which can compromise functioning and service delivery. These stressors often co-occur and interact in different ways which are not yet fully understood. Here, we applied a population model representing a freshwater amphipod feeding on leaf litter in forested streams. We simulated impacts of hypothetical stressors, individually and in pairwise combinations that target the individuals' feeding, maintenance, growth and reproduction. Impacts were quantified by examining responses at three levels of biological organisation: individual-level body sizes and cumulative reproduction, population-level abundance and biomass and ecosystem-level leaf litter decomposition. Interactive effects of multiple stressors at the individual level were mostly antagonistic, that is, less negative than expected. Most population- and ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors were stronger than expected from an additive model, that is, synergistic. Our results suggest that across levels of biological organisation responses to multiple stressors are rarely only additive. We suggest methods for efficiently quantifying impacts of multiple stressors at different levels of biological organisation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Quantifying the environmental impact of an integrated human/industrial-natural system using life cycle assessment; a case study on a forest and wood processing chain.

PubMed

Schaubroeck, Thomas; Alvarenga, Rodrigo A F; Verheyen, Kris; Muys, Bart; Dewulf, Jo

2013-01-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool to assess the environmental sustainability of a product; it quantifies the environmental impact of a product's life cycle. In conventional LCAs, the boundaries of a product's life cycle are limited to the human/industrial system, the technosphere. Ecosystems, which provide resources to and take up emissions from the technosphere, are not included in those boundaries. However, similar to the technosphere, ecosystems also have an impact on their (surrounding) environment through their resource usage (e.g., nutrients) and emissions (e.g., CH4). We therefore propose a LCA framework to assess the impact of integrated Techno-Ecological Systems (TES), comprising relevant ecosystems and the technosphere. In our framework, ecosystems are accounted for in the same manner as technosphere compartments. Also, the remediating effect of uptake of pollutants, an ecosystem service, is considered. A case study was performed on a TES of sawn timber production encompassing wood growth in an intensively managed forest ecosystem and further industrial processing. Results show that the managed forest accounted for almost all resource usage and biodiversity loss through land occupation but also for a remediating effect on human health, mostly via capture of airborne fine particles. These findings illustrate the potential relevance of including ecosystems in the product's life cycle of a LCA, though further research is needed to better quantify the environmental impact of TES.

Quantifying ecological impacts of mass extinctions with network analysis of fossil communities

PubMed Central

Muscente, A. D.; Prabhu, Anirudh; Zhong, Hao; Eleish, Ahmed; Meyer, Michael B.; Fox, Peter; Hazen, Robert M.; Knoll, Andrew H.

2018-01-01

Mass extinctions documented by the fossil record provide critical benchmarks for assessing changes through time in biodiversity and ecology. Efforts to compare biotic crises of the past and present, however, encounter difficulty because taxonomic and ecological changes are decoupled, and although various metrics exist for describing taxonomic turnover, no methods have yet been proposed to quantify the ecological impacts of extinction events. To address this issue, we apply a network-based approach to exploring the evolution of marine animal communities over the Phanerozoic Eon. Network analysis of fossil co-occurrence data enables us to identify nonrandom associations of interrelated paleocommunities. These associations, or evolutionary paleocommunities, dominated total diversity during successive intervals of relative community stasis. Community turnover occurred largely during mass extinctions and radiations, when ecological reorganization resulted in the decline of one association and the rise of another. Altogether, we identify five evolutionary paleocommunities at the generic and familial levels in addition to three ordinal associations that correspond to Sepkoski’s Cambrian, Paleozoic, and Modern evolutionary faunas. In this context, we quantify magnitudes of ecological change by measuring shifts in the representation of evolutionary paleocommunities over geologic time. Our work shows that the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event had the largest effect on ecology, followed in descending order by the Permian–Triassic, Cretaceous–Paleogene, Devonian, and Triassic–Jurassic mass extinctions. Despite its taxonomic severity, the Ordovician extinction did not strongly affect co-occurrences of taxa, affirming its limited ecological impact. Network paleoecology offers promising approaches to exploring ecological consequences of extinctions and radiations. PMID:29686079

Quantifying ecological impacts of mass extinctions with network analysis of fossil communities.

PubMed

Muscente, A D; Prabhu, Anirudh; Zhong, Hao; Eleish, Ahmed; Meyer, Michael B; Fox, Peter; Hazen, Robert M; Knoll, Andrew H

2018-05-15

Mass extinctions documented by the fossil record provide critical benchmarks for assessing changes through time in biodiversity and ecology. Efforts to compare biotic crises of the past and present, however, encounter difficulty because taxonomic and ecological changes are decoupled, and although various metrics exist for describing taxonomic turnover, no methods have yet been proposed to quantify the ecological impacts of extinction events. To address this issue, we apply a network-based approach to exploring the evolution of marine animal communities over the Phanerozoic Eon. Network analysis of fossil co-occurrence data enables us to identify nonrandom associations of interrelated paleocommunities. These associations, or evolutionary paleocommunities, dominated total diversity during successive intervals of relative community stasis. Community turnover occurred largely during mass extinctions and radiations, when ecological reorganization resulted in the decline of one association and the rise of another. Altogether, we identify five evolutionary paleocommunities at the generic and familial levels in addition to three ordinal associations that correspond to Sepkoski's Cambrian, Paleozoic, and Modern evolutionary faunas. In this context, we quantify magnitudes of ecological change by measuring shifts in the representation of evolutionary paleocommunities over geologic time. Our work shows that the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event had the largest effect on ecology, followed in descending order by the Permian-Triassic, Cretaceous-Paleogene, Devonian, and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions. Despite its taxonomic severity, the Ordovician extinction did not strongly affect co-occurrences of taxa, affirming its limited ecological impact. Network paleoecology offers promising approaches to exploring ecological consequences of extinctions and radiations. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Chadès, Iadine

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection.

Quantifying Construction Site Sediment Discharge Risk and Treatment Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrell, L.; Beighley, R. E.

2006-12-01

Dealing with soil erosion and sediment transport can be a significant challenge during the construction process due to the potentially large spatial and temporal extent and conditions of bare soils. Best Management Practices (BMP) are commonly used to eliminate or reduce offsite discharge of sediment. However, few efforts have investigated the time varying risk of sediment discharge from construction sites, which often have dynamic soil conditions and the potential for less than optimal BMP installations. The goal of this research is to improve the design, implementation and effectiveness of sediment and erosion control at construction sites using site specific, temporal distributions of sediment discharge risk. Sediment risk is determined from individual factors leading to sediment expert, such as rainfall frequency, the adequacy of BMP installations, and the extent and duration of bare soil conditions. This research specifically focuses on quantifying: (a) the effectiveness of temporary sediment and control erosion control BMPs in preventing, containing, and/or treating construction site sediment discharge at varying levels of "proper" installation, and (b) sediment discharge potential from construction sites during different phases of construction, (ex., disturbed earth operations). BMPs are evaluated at selected construction sites in southern California and at the Soil Erosion Research Laboratory (SERL) in the Civil and Environmental Engineering department at San Diego State University. SERL experiments are performed on a 3-m by 10-m tilting soil bed with soil depths up to 1 meter, slopes ranging from 0 to 50 percent, and rainfall rates up to 150 mm/hr (6 in/hr). BMP performance is assessed based on experiments where BMPs are installed per manufacture specifications, potential less than optimal installations, and no treatment conditions. Soil conditions are also varied to represent site conditions during different phases of construction (i.e., loose lifts

Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Zhang, Peng; Crittenden, John C; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Chen, Yongsheng; Fernando, Harindra; Sawhney, Anil; McCartney, Peter; Grimm, Nancy; Kahhat, Ramzy; Joshi, Himanshu; Konjevod, Goran; Choi, Yu-Jin; Fonseca, Ernesto; Allenby, Braden; Gerrity, Daniel; Torrens, Paul M

2007-07-15

To encourage sustainable development, engineers and scientists need to understand the interactions among social decision-making, development and redevelopment, land, energy and material use, and their environmental impacts. In this study, a framework that connects these interactions was proposed to guide more sustainable urban planning and construction practices. Focusing on the rapidly urbanizing setting of Phoenix, Arizona, complexity models and deterministic models were assembled as a metamodel, which is called Sustainable Futures 2100 and were used to predict land use and development, to quantify construction material demands, to analyze the life cycle environmental impacts, and to simulate future ground-level ozone formation.

Quantifiers more or less quantify online: ERP evidence for partial incremental interpretation

PubMed Central

Urbach, Thomas P.; Kutas, Marta

2010-01-01

Event-related brain potentials were recorded during RSVP reading to test the hypothesis that quantifier expressions are incrementally interpreted fully and immediately. In sentences tapping general knowledge (Farmers grow crops/worms as their primary source of income), Experiment 1 found larger N400s for atypical (worms) than typical objects (crops). Experiment 2 crossed object typicality with non-logical subject-noun phrase quantifiers (most, few). Off-line plausibility ratings exhibited the crossover interaction predicted by full quantifier interpretation: Most farmers grow crops and Few farmers grow worms were rated more plausible than Most farmers grow worms and Few farmers grow crops. Object N400s, although modulated in the expected direction, did not reverse. Experiment 3 replicated these findings with adverbial quantifiers (Farmers often/rarely grow crops/worms). Interpretation of quantifier expressions thus is neither fully immediate nor fully delayed. Furthermore, object atypicality was associated with a frontal slow positivity in few-type/rarely quantifier contexts, suggesting systematic processing differences among quantifier types. PMID:20640044

Quantifying Impact of Biofeedstock Production on Hydrology/Water Quality in Midwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, Indrajeet; Engel, Bernard; Thomas, Mark; Raj, Cibin; Saraswat, Dharmendra

2010-05-01

The production of biofeedstocks for biofuels is likely to impact the hydrology and water quality of watersheds. Communities potentially impacted are increasingly concerned, and at present, little is known regarding the magnitude of impacts of biofeedstock production on hydrology and water quality. We have initiated a national facilitation project to answer the following questions: What are the unintended environmental consequences of increased corn production to meet biofuel demands? What are the environmental impacts of various second generation biofeedstock production systems to meet cellulosic ethanol demands? Would the management of cropping systems involving corn silage meet cellulosic ethanol demands with minimal environmental impact? What are the broad-scale water quality implications of energy crops, such as switchgrass, grown for bioenergy production on highly erodible soils? This presentation will discuss development of multi-regional agricultural land management practices that can be implemented to mitigate potential negative environmental impacts associated with biofeedstock production while meeting the biofuel production demand. Specifically, we will discuss how watershed scale modeling can be utilized to evaluate the environmental impacts of various biofeedstock production strategies. We will also discuss regional differences in alternative biofeedstock production and associated hydrologic/water quality impacts.

Evolutions in food marketing, quantifying the impact, and policy implications.

PubMed

Cairns, Georgina

2013-03-01

A case study on interactive digital marketing examined the adequacy of extant policy controls and their underpinning paradigms to constrain the effects of this rapidly emerging practice. Findings were interactive digital marketing is expanding the strategies available to promote products, brands and consumer behaviours. It facilitates relational marketing; the collection of personal data for marketing; integration of the marketing mix, and provides a platform for consumers to engage in the co-creation of marketing communications. The paradigmatic logic of current policies to constrain youth-oriented food marketing does not address the interactive nature of digital marketing. The evidence base on the effects of HFSS marketing and policy interventions is based on conceptualizations of marketing as a force promoting transactions rather than interactions. Digital technologies are generating rich consumer data. Interactive digital technologies increase the complexity of the task of quantifying the impact of marketing. The rapidity of its uptake also increases urgency of need to identify appropriate effects measures. Independent analysis of commercial consumer data (appropriately transformed to protect commercial confidentiality and personal privacy) would provide evidence sources for policy on the impacts of commercial food and beverage marketing and policy controls. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the impact of between-study heterogeneity in multivariate meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Jackson, Dan; White, Ian R; Riley, Richard D

2012-01-01

Measures that quantify the impact of heterogeneity in univariate meta-analysis, including the very popular I2 statistic, are now well established. Multivariate meta-analysis, where studies provide multiple outcomes that are pooled in a single analysis, is also becoming more commonly used. The question of how to quantify heterogeneity in the multivariate setting is therefore raised. It is the univariate R2 statistic, the ratio of the variance of the estimated treatment effect under the random and fixed effects models, that generalises most naturally, so this statistic provides our basis. This statistic is then used to derive a multivariate analogue of I2, which we call . We also provide a multivariate H2 statistic, the ratio of a generalisation of Cochran's heterogeneity statistic and its associated degrees of freedom, with an accompanying generalisation of the usual I2 statistic, . Our proposed heterogeneity statistics can be used alongside all the usual estimates and inferential procedures used in multivariate meta-analysis. We apply our methods to some real datasets and show how our statistics are equally appropriate in the context of multivariate meta-regression, where study level covariate effects are included in the model. Our heterogeneity statistics may be used when applying any procedure for fitting the multivariate random effects model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22763950

Quantifying the Impact of Background Atmospheric Stability on Air-Ice-Ocean Interactions the Arctic Ocean During the Fall Freeze-Up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guest, P. S.; Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Fairall, C. W.

2016-02-01

"Background" stability refers to the effect of vertical virtual temperature variations above the surface layer on fluxes within the surface layer. This is different from the classical surface layer stability quantified by the Obhukhov length scale. In most locations, changes in the background stability do not have a significant direct impact on surface fluxes. However in polar regions, where there is usually a strong low-level temperature inversion capping the boundary layer, changes in background stability can have big impacts on surface fluxes. Therefore, in the Arctic, there is potential for a positive feedback effect between ice cover and surface wind speed (and momentum flux) due to the background stability effects. As the surface becomes more ice free, heat fluxes from the surface weaken the temperature inversion which in turn increases the surface wind speed which further increases the surface turbulent heat fluxes and removes more sea ice by melting or advection. It is not clear how important feedbacks involving the background stability are during the fall freeze up of the Arctic Ocean; that will be the focus of this study. As part of an ONR-sponsored cruise in the fall of 2015 to examine sea state and boundary layer processes in the Beaufort Sea on the R/V Sikuliaq, the authors will perform a variety of surface layer and upper level atmospheric measurements of temperature, humidity and wind vector using ship platform instruments, radiosonde weather balloons, tethered balloons, kites, and miniature quad-rotor unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition, the authors will deploy a full suite of turbulent and radiational flux measurements from the vessel. These measurements will be used to quantify the impact of changing surface conditions on atmospheric structure and vice-versa. The goal is to directly observe how the surface and atmosphere above the surface layer interact and feedback with each other through radiational and turbulent fluxes.

Waveform Similarity Analysis: A Simple Template Comparing Approach for Detecting and Quantifying Noisy Evoked Compound Action Potentials.

PubMed

Potas, Jason Robert; de Castro, Newton Gonçalves; Maddess, Ted; de Souza, Marcio Nogueira

2015-01-01

Experimental electrophysiological assessment of evoked responses from regenerating nerves is challenging due to the typical complex response of events dispersed over various latencies and poor signal-to-noise ratio. Our objective was to automate the detection of compound action potential events and derive their latencies and magnitudes using a simple cross-correlation template comparison approach. For this, we developed an algorithm called Waveform Similarity Analysis. To test the algorithm, challenging signals were generated in vivo by stimulating sural and sciatic nerves, whilst recording evoked potentials at the sciatic nerve and tibialis anterior muscle, respectively, in animals recovering from sciatic nerve transection. Our template for the algorithm was generated based on responses evoked from the intact side. We also simulated noisy signals and examined the output of the Waveform Similarity Analysis algorithm with imperfect templates. Signals were detected and quantified using Waveform Similarity Analysis, which was compared to event detection, latency and magnitude measurements of the same signals performed by a trained observer, a process we called Trained Eye Analysis. The Waveform Similarity Analysis algorithm could successfully detect and quantify simple or complex responses from nerve and muscle compound action potentials of intact or regenerated nerves. Incorrectly specifying the template outperformed Trained Eye Analysis for predicting signal amplitude, but produced consistent latency errors for the simulated signals examined. Compared to the trained eye, Waveform Similarity Analysis is automatic, objective, does not rely on the observer to identify and/or measure peaks, and can detect small clustered events even when signal-to-noise ratio is poor. Waveform Similarity Analysis provides a simple, reliable and convenient approach to quantify latencies and magnitudes of complex waveforms and therefore serves as a useful tool for studying evoked compound

Waveform Similarity Analysis: A Simple Template Comparing Approach for Detecting and Quantifying Noisy Evoked Compound Action Potentials

PubMed Central

Potas, Jason Robert; de Castro, Newton Gonçalves; Maddess, Ted; de Souza, Marcio Nogueira

2015-01-01

Experimental electrophysiological assessment of evoked responses from regenerating nerves is challenging due to the typical complex response of events dispersed over various latencies and poor signal-to-noise ratio. Our objective was to automate the detection of compound action potential events and derive their latencies and magnitudes using a simple cross-correlation template comparison approach. For this, we developed an algorithm called Waveform Similarity Analysis. To test the algorithm, challenging signals were generated in vivo by stimulating sural and sciatic nerves, whilst recording evoked potentials at the sciatic nerve and tibialis anterior muscle, respectively, in animals recovering from sciatic nerve transection. Our template for the algorithm was generated based on responses evoked from the intact side. We also simulated noisy signals and examined the output of the Waveform Similarity Analysis algorithm with imperfect templates. Signals were detected and quantified using Waveform Similarity Analysis, which was compared to event detection, latency and magnitude measurements of the same signals performed by a trained observer, a process we called Trained Eye Analysis. The Waveform Similarity Analysis algorithm could successfully detect and quantify simple or complex responses from nerve and muscle compound action potentials of intact or regenerated nerves. Incorrectly specifying the template outperformed Trained Eye Analysis for predicting signal amplitude, but produced consistent latency errors for the simulated signals examined. Compared to the trained eye, Waveform Similarity Analysis is automatic, objective, does not rely on the observer to identify and/or measure peaks, and can detect small clustered events even when signal-to-noise ratio is poor. Waveform Similarity Analysis provides a simple, reliable and convenient approach to quantify latencies and magnitudes of complex waveforms and therefore serves as a useful tool for studying evoked compound

A preliminary approach to quantifying the overall environmental risks posed by development projects during environmental impact assessment

PubMed Central

Chadès, Iadine

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is used globally to manage the impacts of development projects on the environment, so there is an imperative to demonstrate that it can effectively identify risky projects. However, despite the widespread use of quantitative predictive risk models in areas such as toxicology, ecosystem modelling and water quality, the use of predictive risk tools to assess the overall expected environmental impacts of major construction and development proposals is comparatively rare. A risk-based approach has many potential advantages, including improved prediction and attribution of cause and effect; sensitivity analysis; continual learning; and optimal resource allocation. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of using a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to quantify the likelihood and consequence of non-compliance of new projects based on the occurrence probabilities of a set of expert-defined features. The BBN incorporates expert knowledge and continually improves its predictions based on new data as it is collected. We use simulation to explore the trade-off between the number of data points and the prediction accuracy of the BBN, and find that the BBN could predict risk with 90% accuracy using approximately 1000 data points. Although a further pilot test with real project data is required, our results suggest that a BBN is a promising method to monitor overall risks posed by development within an existing EIA process given a modest investment in data collection. PMID:28686651

Quantifying Ocean Acidification and its Impacts to Coral Reef Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, D.; Gledhill, D. K.; Enochs, I.; Andersson, A. J.

2013-05-01

Ocean Acidification (OA) describes the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans and consequent decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. OA is of particular concern for coral reef ecosystems because it is expected to reduce the calcification rates of reef-building corals and other calcifiers, and may simultaneously increase the erosive abilities of key bioeroding taxa. Despite these concerns, we have little understanding of how OA will manifest in the real-world or, if, and how much of the world-wide trajectory of reef decline can be attributed to OA. With this in mind, we will present recommendations for monitoring OA of coral reef waters, as well as its ecosystem impacts over time. Different approaches and metrics, including their individual strengths and weaknesses, will be discussed. The ultimate goal of these efforts is to quantify the effects of OA on coral reef ecosystems in the real-world to robustly predict their structure and function in a high-CO2 world.

Menu labeling as a potential strategy for combating the obesity epidemic: a health impact assessment.

PubMed

Kuo, Tony; Jarosz, Christopher J; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E

2009-09-01

We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior.

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

PubMed

Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

2014-03-01

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: a portfolio-of-mechanisms approach.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2006-12-01

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.

Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ke, Xinda; Wu, Di; Rice, Jennie S.

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the "new normal" on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reducemore » the output capacity and efficiency of gas fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperatures on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reliability and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.« less

Quantifying the Impact of Scenic Environments on Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seresinhe, Chanuki Illushka; Preis, Tobias; Moat, Helen Susannah

2015-11-01

Few people would deny an intuitive sense of increased wellbeing when spending time in beautiful locations. Here, we ask: can we quantify the relationship between environmental aesthetics and human health? We draw on data from Scenic-Or-Not, a website that crowdsources ratings of “scenicness” for geotagged photographs across Great Britain, in combination with data on citizen-reported health from the Census for England and Wales. We find that inhabitants of more scenic environments report better health, across urban, suburban and rural areas, even when taking core socioeconomic indicators of deprivation into account, such as income, employment and access to services. Our results provide evidence in line with the striking hypothesis that the aesthetics of the environment may have quantifiable consequences for our wellbeing.

The game-theoretic national interstate economic model : an integrated framework to quantify the economic impacts of cyber-terrorist behavior.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-01

This study suggests an integrated framework to quantify cyber attack impacts on the U.S. airport security system. A cyber attack by terrorists on the U.S. involves complex : strategic behavior by the terrorists because they could plan to invade an ai...

Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

PubMed Central

Copeland, Holly E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Naugle, David E.; Pocewicz, Amy; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

2009-01-01

Background Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. Methodology/Principal Findings We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. Conclusions/Significance Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation. PMID:19826472

A Proof-of-Concept Approach for Quantifying Multi-Pollutant Health Impacts Using the Open-Source BenMAP-CE Software Program

EPA Science Inventory

Background Air pollution risk assessments often employ effect coefficients from epidemiologic studies to quantify the public health impact of changes in air quality. Partly due to data and methodological limitations, epidemiologic studies have traditionally characterized the heal...

Analyzing animal movement patterns using potential functions

Treesearch

H. K. Preisler; A. A. Ager; M. J. Wisdom

2013-01-01

The advent of GPS technology has made it possible to study human-wildlife interactions on large landscapes and quantify behavioral responses to recreation and other anthropogenic disturbances at increasingly fine scales. Of particular interest are the potential impacts on habitat use patterns, energetics, and cascading impacts on fecundity and other life history traits...

DEVELOPMENT OF A METHOD TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACT ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Advances in human health risk assessment, especially for contaminants encountered by the inhalation route, have evolved so that the uncertainty factors (UF) used in the extrapolation of non-cancer effects across species (UFA) have been split into the respective pharmacodynamic (PD) and pharmacokinetic (PK) components. Present EPA default values for these components are divided into two half-logs (e.g., 10 to the 0.5 power or 3.16), so that their multiplication yields the 10-fold UF customarily seen in Agency risk assessments as UFA. The state of the science at present does not support a detailed evaluation of species-dependent and human interindividual variance of PD, but more data exist by which PK variance can be examined and quantified both across species and within the human species. Because metabolism accounts for much of the PK variance, we sought to examine the impact that differences in hepatic enzyme content exerts upon risk-relevant PK outcomes among humans. Because of the age and ethnic diversity expressed in the human organ donor population and the wide availability of tissues from these human organ donors, a program was developed to include information from those tissues in characterizing human interindividual PK variance. An Interagency Agreement with CDC/NIOSH Taft Laboratory, a Cooperative Agreement with CIIT Centers for Health Research, and a collaborative agreement with NHEERL/ETD were established to successfully complete the project. The di

Menu Labeling as a Potential Strategy for Combating the Obesity Epidemic: A Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Jarosz, Christopher J.; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. Methods. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Results. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior. PMID:19608944

Quantifying electrical impacts on redundant wire insertion in 7nm unidirectional designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohyeldin, Ahmed; Schroeder, Uwe Paul; Srinivasan, Ramya; Narisetty, Haritez; Malik, Shobhit; Madhavan, Sriram

2017-04-01

In nano-meter scale Integrated Circuits, via fails due to random defects is a well-known yield detractor, and via redundancy insertion is a common method to help enhance semiconductors yield. For the case of Self Aligned Double Patterning (SADP), which might require unidirectional design layers as in the case of some advanced technology nodes, the conventional methods of inserting redundant vias don't work any longer. This is because adding redundant vias conventionally requires adding metal shapes in the non-preferred direction, which will violate the SADP design constraints in that case. Therefore, such metal layers fabricated using unidirectional SADP require an alternative method for providing the needed redundancy. This paper proposes a post-layout Design for Manufacturability (DFM) redundancy insertion method tailored for the design requirements introduced by unidirectional metal layers. The proposed method adds redundant wires in the preferred direction - after searching for nearby vacant routing tracks - in order to provide redundant paths for electrical signals. This method opportunistically adds robustness against failures due to silicon defects without impacting area or incurring new design rule violations. Implementation details of this redundancy insertion method will be explained in this paper. One known challenge with similar DFM layout fixing methods is the possible introduction of undesired electrical impact, causing other unintentional failures in design functionality. In this paper, a study is presented to quantify the electrical impacts of such redundancy insertion scheme and to examine if that electrical impact can be tolerated. The paper will show results to evaluate DFM insertion rates and corresponding electrical impact for a given design utilization and maximum inserted wire length. Parasitic extraction and static timing analysis results will be presented. A typical digital design implemented using GLOBALFOUNDRIES 7nm technology is used for

Quantifying the Impacts of Outlet Control Structures on Lake Hydrology and Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budd, B. M.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Hyndman, D. W.

2012-12-01

There have been limited studies of the impacts of lake level control structures on stream ecology and lake property erosion. We examine the influence of historical lake level management strategies on Higgins Lake in Michigan, which is regionally known for recreation, fisheries, and scenery. Lake control structures have potentially increased shoreline erosion and seasonally-reduced flow through the outlets, likely impacting fish habitat. Concerns over these issues spurred local land owners to seek a study on the possible hydrologic and ecological impacts of the removal or modification of the control structure. Bathymetry maps are fundamental to understanding and managing lake ecosystems. From the 1930's through the 1950's, these maps were developed for thousands of Michigan inland lakes using soundings lowered through holes cut in winter lake ice. Increased land use change and alterations of lake outlets have likely modified erosion and sedimentation rates of these lake systems. Our research includes bathymetry surveys of Higgins Lake using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and side-scan sonar. The new higher-resolution bathymetry serves as the basis for simulating impacts of potential changes in lake management, on a verity of inpoint including shoreline position and fish habitat.

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

PubMed Central

Baccini, Michela; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-01-01

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. PMID:28678192

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

PubMed

Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

2017-07-05

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Quantifying renewable groundwater stress with GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, Alexandra S.; Thomas, Brian F.; Lo, Min-Hui; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Voss, Katalyn; Swenson, Sean; Rodell, Matthew

2015-07-01

Groundwater is an increasingly important water supply source globally. Understanding the amount of groundwater used versus the volume available is crucial to evaluate future water availability. We present a groundwater stress assessment to quantify the relationship between groundwater use and availability in the world's 37 largest aquifer systems. We quantify stress according to a ratio of groundwater use to availability, which we call the Renewable Groundwater Stress ratio. The impact of quantifying groundwater use based on nationally reported groundwater withdrawal statistics is compared to a novel approach to quantify use based on remote sensing observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Four characteristic stress regimes are defined: Overstressed, Variable Stress, Human-dominated Stress, and Unstressed. The regimes are a function of the sign of use (positive or negative) and the sign of groundwater availability, defined as mean annual recharge. The ability to mitigate and adapt to stressed conditions, where use exceeds sustainable water availability, is a function of economic capacity and land use patterns. Therefore, we qualitatively explore the relationship between stress and anthropogenic biomes. We find that estimates of groundwater stress based on withdrawal statistics are unable to capture the range of characteristic stress regimes, especially in regions dominated by sparsely populated biome types with limited cropland. GRACE-based estimates of use and stress can holistically quantify the impact of groundwater use on stress, resulting in both greater magnitudes of stress and more variability of stress between regions.

Quantifying renewable groundwater stress with GRACE

PubMed Central

Richey, Alexandra S.; Thomas, Brian F.; Lo, Min‐Hui; Reager, John T.; Voss, Katalyn; Swenson, Sean; Rodell, Matthew

2015-01-01

Abstract Groundwater is an increasingly important water supply source globally. Understanding the amount of groundwater used versus the volume available is crucial to evaluate future water availability. We present a groundwater stress assessment to quantify the relationship between groundwater use and availability in the world's 37 largest aquifer systems. We quantify stress according to a ratio of groundwater use to availability, which we call the Renewable Groundwater Stress ratio. The impact of quantifying groundwater use based on nationally reported groundwater withdrawal statistics is compared to a novel approach to quantify use based on remote sensing observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Four characteristic stress regimes are defined: Overstressed, Variable Stress, Human‐dominated Stress, and Unstressed. The regimes are a function of the sign of use (positive or negative) and the sign of groundwater availability, defined as mean annual recharge. The ability to mitigate and adapt to stressed conditions, where use exceeds sustainable water availability, is a function of economic capacity and land use patterns. Therefore, we qualitatively explore the relationship between stress and anthropogenic biomes. We find that estimates of groundwater stress based on withdrawal statistics are unable to capture the range of characteristic stress regimes, especially in regions dominated by sparsely populated biome types with limited cropland. GRACE‐based estimates of use and stress can holistically quantify the impact of groundwater use on stress, resulting in both greater magnitudes of stress and more variability of stress between regions. PMID:26900185

Considerations in evaluating potential socioeconomic impacts of offshore platform decommissioning in California.

PubMed

Kruse, Sarah A; Bernstein, Brock; Scholz, Astrid J

2015-10-01

The 27 oil and gas platforms offshore southern California will eventually reach the end of their useful lifetimes (estimated between 2015 and 2030) and will be decommissioned. Current state and federal laws and regulations allow for alternative uses in lieu of the complete removal required in existing leases. Any decommissioning pathway will create a complex mix of costs, benefits, opportunities, and constraints for multiple user groups. To assist the California Natural Resources Agency in understanding these issues, we evaluated the potential socioeconomic impacts of the 2 most likely options: complete removal and partial removal of the structure to 85 feet below the waterline with the remaining structure left in place as an artificial reef-generally defined as a manmade structure with some properties that mimic a natural reef. We estimated impacts on commercial fishing, commercial shipping, recreational fishing, nonconsumptive boating, and nonconsumptive SCUBA diving. Available data supported quantitative estimates for some impacts, semiquantitative estimates for others, and only qualitative approximations of the direction of impact for still others. Even qualitative estimates of the direction of impacts and of user groups' likely preferred options have been useful to the public and decision makers and provided valuable input to the project's integrative decision model. Uncertainty surrounds even qualitative estimates of the likely direction of impact where interactions between multiple impacts could occur or where user groups include subsets that would experience the same option differently. In addition, we were unable to quantify effects on ecosystem value and on the larger regional ecosystem, because of data gaps on the population sizes and dynamics of key species and the uncertainty surrounding the contribution of platforms to available hard substrate and related natural populations offshore southern California. © 2015 SETAC.

Quantifying the Impact of Floods on Bacillary Dysentery in Dalian City, China, From 2004 to 2010.

PubMed

Xu, Xin; Ding, Guoyong; Zhang, Ying; Liu, Zhidong; Liu, Qiyong; Jiang, Baofa

2017-04-01

Studies quantifying relationships between floods and diarrheal diseases have mainly been conducted in low-latitude regions. It's therefore increasingly important to examine these relationships in midlatitude regions, where they may have significant public health implications. This study aimed to examine the association between floods and bacillary dysentery in the city of Dalian, China. A generalized additive mixed model was applied to examine the association between floods and bacillary dysentery. The relative risk (RR) of flood impact on bacillary dysentery was estimated. A total of 18,976 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Dalian during the study period. Two weeks' lagged effect was detected from the impact of floods on bacillary dysentery. The RR of flood impact on bacillary dysentery was 1.17 (95% CI: 1.03-1.33). Floods have significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery in Dalian. More studies should focus on the association between floods and infectious diseases in different regions. Our findings have significant implications for managing the negative health impact of floods in the midlatitude region of China. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:190-195).

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, S.; Gimenez, O.; Flint, E.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; Lebreton, J.D.

2007-01-01

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture?recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997?2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross? survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications. The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross

Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de; Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de; Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org

Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them beingmore » maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.« less

Quantifying climatic controls on river network topology across scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjbar Moshfeghi, S.; Hooshyar, M.; Wang, D.; Singh, A.

2017-12-01

Branching structure of river networks is an important topologic and geomorphologic feature that depends on several factors (e.g. climate, tectonic). However, mechanisms that cause these drainage patterns in river networks are poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the effects of varying climatic forcing on river network topology and geomorphology. For this, we select 20 catchments across the United States with different long-term climatic conditions quantified by climate aridity index (AI), defined here as the ratio of mean annual potential evaporation (Ep) to precipitation (P), capturing variation in runoff and vegetation cover. The river networks of these catchments are extracted, using a curvature-based method, from high-resolution (1 m) digital elevation models and several metrics such as drainage density, branching angle, and width functions are computed. We also use a multiscale-entropy-based approach to quantify the topologic irregularity and structural richness of these river networks. Our results reveal systematic impacts of climate forcing on the structure of river networks.

Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Rife, Trevor W; Poland, Jesse A; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2016-08-01

The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field-trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade-off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on-farm varieties. Currently released - but not yet adopted - varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation-through-adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, F.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop

A stochastic approach for quantifying immigrant integration: the Spanish test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Barra, Adriano; Contucci, Pierluigi; Sandell, Richard; Vernia, Cecilia

2014-10-01

We apply stochastic process theory to the analysis of immigrant integration. Using a unique and detailed data set from Spain, we study the relationship between local immigrant density and two social and two economic immigration quantifiers for the period 1999-2010. As opposed to the classic time-series approach, by letting immigrant density play the role of ‘time’ and the quantifier the role of ‘space,’ it becomes possible to analyse the behavior of the quantifiers by means of continuous time random walks. Two classes of results are then obtained. First, we show that social integration quantifiers evolve following diffusion law, while the evolution of economic quantifiers exhibits ballistic dynamics. Second, we make predictions of best- and worst-case scenarios taking into account large local fluctuations. Our stochastic process approach to integration lends itself to interesting forecasting scenarios which, in the hands of policy makers, have the potential to improve political responses to integration problems. For instance, estimating the standard first-passage time and maximum-span walk reveals local differences in integration performance for different immigration scenarios. Thus, by recognizing the importance of local fluctuations around national means, this research constitutes an important tool to assess the impact of immigration phenomena on municipal budgets and to set up solid multi-ethnic plans at the municipal level as immigration pressures build.

The real estate factor: quantifying the impact of infarct location on stroke severity.

PubMed

Menezes, Nina M; Ay, Hakan; Wang Zhu, Ming; Lopez, Chloe J; Singhal, Aneesh B; Karonen, Jari O; Aronen, Hannu J; Liu, Yawu; Nuutinen, Juho; Koroshetz, Walter J; Sorensen, A Gregory

2007-01-01

The severity of the neurological deficit after ischemic stroke is moderately correlated with infarct volume. In the current study, we sought to quantify the impact of location on neurological deficit severity and to delineate this impact from that of volume. We developed atlases consisting of location-weighted values indicating the relative importance in terms of neurological deficit severity for every voxel of the brain. These atlases were applied to 80 first-ever ischemic stroke patients to produce estimates of clinical deficit severity. Each patient had an MRI and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) examination just before or soon after hospital discharge. The correlation between the location-based deficit predictions and measured neurological deficit (NIHSS) scores were compared with the correlation obtained using volume alone to predict the neurological deficit. Volume-based estimates of neurological deficit severity were only moderately correlated with measured NIHSS scores (r=0.62). The combination of volume and location resulted in a significantly better correlation with clinical deficit severity (r=0.79, P=0.032). The atlas methodology is a feasible way of integrating infarct size and location to predict stroke severity. It can estimate stroke severity better than volume alone.

Quantifying the Impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño Event on California's Historic Drought to Improve Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajic, B. N.; Lawrence, J.; Gutowski, L.; Rousseau, N. J.; Reager, J. T., II; Jackson, M. E.; Laber, J. L.; Dumas, J. L.

2016-12-01

2015 marked the arrival of the strongest El Niño ever recorded, surpassing the 1997-1998 event that brought significant precipitation to the southwestern United States. As sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific increased, it was forecasted that the 2015 event may have similar effects and alleviate what the US Drought Monitor classified as "exceptional" drought across the majority of the state of California. However, the impacts of the drought, now in its fifth year, continue to strain California water supplies. This study utilized data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Earth Observation, meteorological ground observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reservoir levels from the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to better quantify impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño event in the state of California. Specifically, monthly measurements of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE allowed for a more complete estimate of drought recovery throughout the state over the course of the 2016 water year. TWS was correlated with NOAA precipitation data (nClimDiv) in order to quantify the total current water deficit across the state. This relationship also permits the projection of future drought in California under various possible ENSO-driven precipitation scenarios. While analysis shows that ONI is not a sufficient metric for forecasting precipitation on a statewide basis, the various scenarios provide insight into the potential future of California's aggregated water resources. With drought in the Southwestern US projected to increase in general intensity, frequency, and duration, quantitative assessments of statewide water resources are becoming increasingly important. NASA GRACE TWS hydrological data presents a uniquely integrated measure to inform resource managers and decision makers.

Quantifying the humanitarian and economic impact of earthquakes on South American capital cities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoback, M. L.; Cabrera, C.; Pomonis, A.; Baca, A.; Brunner, I.; Cheung, G.; Chen, A.; Nagel, B.; Carrasco, S.

2009-12-01

By 2000, an estimated 80% of South America’s population lived in urban areas (Veblen et al., The Physical Geography of South America, Oxford University Press, 2007). A significant fraction of those urban dwellers resides in the capital cities which are major economic centers and act as magnets for rural poor and refugees. This population concentration includes many residents living in extreme poverty in substandard and informal housing, often on the margins of these capital cities and sometimes on steep slopes, greatly compounding the vulnerability to natural hazards. We are analyzing the humanitarian and economic risk for six of the seismically most-at-risk South American capitals along the northern and western plate boundaries of South America: Caracas, Venezuela; Bogotá, Colombia; Quito, Ecuador; Lima, Perú; La Paz, Bolivia; and Santiago, Chile. Impacts are provided in the form of expected losses for a specific “likely” scenario earthquake and in a probabilistic format using exceedance probability curves (probability of exceeding a given loss in different return periods). Impacts to be quantified include: total economic losses, potential fatalities, potential serious injuries, and the number of displaced households. Probabilistic seismic hazard was developed in collaboration with numerous South American experts and includes subduction interface, intraslab, background crustal and, where available, active fault sources. A significant challenge for this study is to accurately account for the exposure and vulnerability of populations living in the informal, shanty areas. Combining analysis of aerial imagery and on-the-ground reconnaissance, we define between 20-30 “inventory districts” of relatively uniform construction styles within each capital. Statistical distributions of the different construction types and their characteristics (height, occupancy, year built, average value) are estimated for each district. In addition, working with local graduate

Quantifying the impact of human activity on temperatures in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

2017-04-01

Human activity directly influences ambient air, surface and groundwater temperatures. Alterations of surface cover and land use influence the ambient thermal regime causing spatial temperature anomalies, most commonly heat islands. These local temperature anomalies are primarily described within the bounds of large and densely populated urban settlements, where they form so-called urban heat islands (UHI). This study explores the anthropogenic impact not only for selected cities, but for the thermal regime on a countrywide scale, by analyzing mean annual temperature datasets in Germany in three different compartments: measured surface air temperature (SAT), measured groundwater temperature (GWT), and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST). As a universal parameter to quantify anthropogenic heat anomalies, the anthropogenic heat intensity (AHI) is introduced. It is closely related to the urban heat island intensity, but determined for each pixel (for satellite-derived LST) or measurement point (for SAT and GWT) of a large, even global, dataset individually, regardless of land use and location. Hence, it provides the unique opportunity to a) compare the anthropogenic impact on temperatures in air, surface and subsurface, b) to find main instances of anthropogenic temperature anomalies within the study area, in this case Germany, and c) to study the impact of smaller settlements or industrial sites on temperatures. For all three analyzed temperature datasets, anthropogenic heat intensity grows with increasing nighttime lights and declines with increasing vegetation, whereas population density has only minor effects. While surface anthropogenic heat intensity cannot be linked to specific land cover types in the studied resolution (1 km × 1 km) and classification system, both air and groundwater show increased heat intensities for artificial surfaces. Overall, groundwater temperature appears most vulnerable to human activity; unlike land surface temperature

A framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behavior on energy savings of energy conservation measures

DOE PAGES

Sun, K; Hong, T

2017-07-01

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energymore » performance of buildings. This study presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior

A framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behavior on energy savings of energy conservation measures

DOE PAGES

Sun, Kaiyu; Hong, Tianzhen

2017-04-27

To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energy performance of buildings. Thismore » paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior (the relative savings

A framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behavior on energy savings of energy conservation measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Kaiyu; Hong, Tianzhen

To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energy performance of buildings. Thismore » paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior (the relative savings

Quantifying the multiple, environmental benefits of reintroducing the Eurasian Beaver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazier, Richard; Puttock, Alan; Graham, Hugh; Anderson, Karen; Cunliffe, Andrew; Elliott, Mark

2016-04-01

Beavers are ecological engineers with an ability to modify the structure and flow of fluvial systems and create complex wetland environments with dams, ponds and canals. Consequently, beaver activity has potential for river restoration, management and the provision of multiple environmental ecosystem services including biodiversity, flood risk mitigation, water quality and sustainable drinking water provision. With the current debate surrounding the reintroduction of beavers into the United Kingdom, it is critical to monitor the impact of beavers upon the environment. We have developed and implemented a monitoring strategy to quantify the impact of reintroducing the Eurasian Beaver on multiple environmental ecosystem services and river systems at a range of scales. First, the experimental design and preliminary results will be presented from the Mid-Devon Beaver Trial, where a family of beavers has been introduced to a 3 ha enclosure situated upon a first order tributary of the River Tamar. The site was instrumented to monitor the flow rate and quality of water entering and leaving the site. Additionally, the impacts of beavers upon riparian vegetation structure, water/carbon storage were investigated. Preliminary results indicate that beaver activity, particularly the building of ponds and dams, increases water storage within the landscape and moderates the river response to rainfall. Baseflow is enhanced during dry periods and storm flow is attenuated, potentially reducing the risk of flooding downstream. Initial analysis of water quality indicates that water entering the site (running off intensively managed grasslands upslope), has higher suspended sediment loads and nitrate levels, than that leaving the site, after moving through the series of beaver ponds. These results suggest beaver activity may also act as a means by which the negative impact of diffuse water pollution from agriculture can be mitigated thus providing cleaner water in rivers downstream

Percolation Centrality: Quantifying Graph-Theoretic Impact of Nodes during Percolation in Networks

PubMed Central

Piraveenan, Mahendra; Prokopenko, Mikhail; Hossain, Liaquat

2013-01-01

A number of centrality measures are available to determine the relative importance of a node in a complex network, and betweenness is prominent among them. However, the existing centrality measures are not adequate in network percolation scenarios (such as during infection transmission in a social network of individuals, spreading of computer viruses on computer networks, or transmission of disease over a network of towns) because they do not account for the changing percolation states of individual nodes. We propose a new measure, percolation centrality, that quantifies relative impact of nodes based on their topological connectivity, as well as their percolation states. The measure can be extended to include random walk based definitions, and its computational complexity is shown to be of the same order as that of betweenness centrality. We demonstrate the usage of percolation centrality by applying it to a canonical network as well as simulated and real world scale-free and random networks. PMID:23349699

Quantifying capital goods for biological treatment of organic waste.

PubMed

Brogaard, Line K; Petersen, Per H; Nielsen, Peter D; Christensen, Thomas H

2015-02-01

Materials and energy used for construction of anaerobic digestion (AD) and windrow composting plants were quantified in detail. The two technologies were quantified in collaboration with consultants and producers of the parts used to construct the plants. The composting plants were quantified based on the different sizes for the three different types of waste (garden and park waste, food waste and sludge from wastewater treatment) in amounts of 10,000 or 50,000 tonnes per year. The AD plant was quantified for a capacity of 80,000 tonnes per year. Concrete and steel for the tanks were the main materials for the AD plant. For the composting plants, gravel and concrete slabs for the pavement were used in large amounts. To frame the quantification, environmental impact assessments (EIAs) showed that the steel used for tanks at the AD plant and the concrete slabs at the composting plants made the highest contribution to Global Warming. The total impact on Global Warming from the capital goods compared to the operation reported in the literature on the AD plant showed an insignificant contribution of 1-2%. For the composting plants, the capital goods accounted for 10-22% of the total impact on Global Warming from composting. © The Author(s) 2015.

A New Metric for Quantifying the Relative Impact of Risk Factors on Loss of Working Life Illustrated in a Population of Working Dogs.

PubMed

Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey; Harvey, Naomi D; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

2016-01-01

In a resource-limited world, organisations attempting to reduce the impact of health or behaviour issues need to choose carefully how to allocate resources for the highest overall impact. However, such choices may not always be obvious. Which has the biggest impact? A large change to a small number of individuals, or a small change to a large number of individuals? The challenge is identifying the issues that have the greatest impact on the population so potential interventions can be prioritised. We addressed this by developing a score to quantify the impact of health conditions and behaviour problems in a population of working guide dogs using data from Guide Dogs, UK. The cumulative incidence of different issues was combined with information about their impact, in terms of reduction in working life, to create a work score. The work score was created at population-level to illustrate issues with the greatest impact on the population and to understand contributions of breeds or crossbreeds to the workforce. An individual work deficit score was also created and means of this score used to illustrate the impact on working life within a subgroup of the population such as a breed, or crossbreed generation. The work deficit scores showed that those removed for behavioural issues had a greater impact on the overall workforce than those removed for health reasons. Additionally trends over time illustrated the positive influence of interventions Guide Dogs have made to improve their workforce. Information highlighted by these scores is pertinent to the effort of Guide Dogs to ensure partnerships are lasting. Recognising that the scores developed here could be transferable to a wide variety of contexts and species, most notably human work force decisions; we discuss possible uses and adaptations such as reduction in lifespan, quality of life and yield in production animals.

A New Metric for Quantifying the Relative Impact of Risk Factors on Loss of Working Life Illustrated in a Population of Working Dogs

PubMed Central

Caron-Lormier, Geoffrey; England, Gary C. W.; Asher, Lucy

2016-01-01

In a resource-limited world, organisations attempting to reduce the impact of health or behaviour issues need to choose carefully how to allocate resources for the highest overall impact. However, such choices may not always be obvious. Which has the biggest impact? A large change to a small number of individuals, or a small change to a large number of individuals? The challenge is identifying the issues that have the greatest impact on the population so potential interventions can be prioritised. We addressed this by developing a score to quantify the impact of health conditions and behaviour problems in a population of working guide dogs using data from Guide Dogs, UK. The cumulative incidence of different issues was combined with information about their impact, in terms of reduction in working life, to create a work score. The work score was created at population-level to illustrate issues with the greatest impact on the population and to understand contributions of breeds or crossbreeds to the workforce. An individual work deficit score was also created and means of this score used to illustrate the impact on working life within a subgroup of the population such as a breed, or crossbreed generation. The work deficit scores showed that those removed for behavioural issues had a greater impact on the overall workforce than those removed for health reasons. Additionally trends over time illustrated the positive influence of interventions Guide Dogs have made to improve their workforce. Information highlighted by these scores is pertinent to the effort of Guide Dogs to ensure partnerships are lasting. Recognising that the scores developed here could be transferable to a wide variety of contexts and species, most notably human work force decisions; we discuss possible uses and adaptations such as reduction in lifespan, quality of life and yield in production animals. PMID:27829045

Shale gas, wind and water: assessing the potential cumulative impacts of energy development on ecosystem services within the Marcellus play.

PubMed

Evans, Jeffrey S; Kiesecker, Joseph M

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km(2) in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades.

Shale Gas, Wind and Water: Assessing the Potential Cumulative Impacts of Energy Development on Ecosystem Services within the Marcellus Play

PubMed Central

Evans, Jeffrey S.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States (e.g. New York City, Washington DC, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh). Here we created probability surfaces representing development potential of wind and shale gas for portions of six states in the Central Appalachians. We used these predictions and published projections to model future energy build-out scenarios to quantify future potential impacts on surface drinking water. Our analysis predicts up to 106,004 new wells and 10,798 new wind turbines resulting up to 535,023 ha of impervious surface (3% of the study area) and upwards of 447,134 ha of impacted forest (2% of the study area). In light of this new energy future, mitigating the impacts of energy development will be one of the major challenges in the coming decades. PMID:24586599

Quantifying Ballistic Armor Performance: A Minimally Invasive Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Gale; Kim, Jaehyun; Blair, William; McDonough, Walter; Snyder, Chad

2006-03-01

Theoretical and non-dimensional analyses suggest a critical link between the performance of ballistic resistant armor and the fundamental mechanical properties of the polymeric materials that comprise them. Therefore, a test methodology that quantifies these properties without compromising an armored vest that is exposed to the industry standard V-50 ballistic performance test is needed. Currently, there is considerable speculation about the impact that competing degradation mechanisms (e.g., mechanical, humidity, ultraviolet) may have on ballistic resistant armor. We report on the use of a new test methodology that quantifies the mechanical properties of ballistic fibers and how each proposed degradation mechanism may impact a vest's ballistic performance.

Analysis of the Potential Impact of Discrepancies in Stratosphere-troposphere Exchange on Inferred Sources and Sinks of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, D. B. A.; Deng, F.; Walker, T. W.; Keller, M.; Bowman, K. W.; Nassar, R.

2014-12-01

The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) represents a transition region between the more dynamically active troposphere and more stably stratified stratosphere. The processes that influence the distribution of atmospheric constituents in the UTLS occur on small vertical scales that are a challenge for models to reliably capture. As a consequence, models typically underestimate the mean age of air in the lowermost stratosphere, reflecting excessive vertical transport and/or mixing in the region. Using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model, we quantify the potential impact of discrepancies in vertical transport in the UTLS on inferred sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2. Comparisons of the modeled CO2 and O3 in the polar UTLS with data from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign show that the model overestimates CO2 and underestimates O3 in the region. Using the observed CO2/O3 correlations in the UTLS, we correct the modeled CO2 in the Arctic UTLS (primarily between the 320 K and 360 K isentropic surfaces) and quantify the impact of the CO2 correction on the flux estimates using the GEOS-Chem data assimilation system together with XCO2 data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). As a result of isentropic transport, the correction is transported down into the subtropical troposphere, where it impacts the regional flux estimates. Our results suggest that discrepancies in mixing in the UTLS could bias the latitudinal distribution of the inferred CO2 fluxes.

Quantifying the negative impact of brain drain on the integration of European science

PubMed Central

Doria Arrieta, Omar A.; Pammolli, Fabio; Petersen, Alexander M.

2017-01-01

The 2004/2007 European Union (EU) enlargement by 12 member states offers a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of EU efforts to expand and integrate the scientific competitiveness of the European Research Area (ERA). We apply two causal estimation schemes to cross-border collaboration data extracted from millions of academic publications from 1996 to 2012, which are disaggregated across 14 subject areas and 32 European countries. Our results illustrate the unintended consequences following the 2004/2007 enlargement, namely, its negative impact on cross-border collaboration in science. First, we use the synthetic control method to show that levels of European cross-border collaboration would have been higher without EU enlargement, despite the 2004/2007 EU entrants gaining access to EU resources incentivizing cross-border integration. Second, we implement a difference-in-difference panel regression, incorporating official intra-European high-skilled mobility statistics, to identify migration imbalance—principally from entrant to incumbent EU member states—as a major factor underlying the divergence in cross-border integration between Western and Eastern Europe. These results challenge central tenets underlying ERA integration policies that unifying labor markets will increase the international competitiveness of the ERA, thereby calling attention to the need for effective home-return incentives and policies. PMID:28439544

Quantifying the negative impact of brain drain on the integration of European science.

PubMed

Doria Arrieta, Omar A; Pammolli, Fabio; Petersen, Alexander M

2017-04-01

The 2004/2007 European Union (EU) enlargement by 12 member states offers a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of EU efforts to expand and integrate the scientific competitiveness of the European Research Area (ERA). We apply two causal estimation schemes to cross-border collaboration data extracted from millions of academic publications from 1996 to 2012, which are disaggregated across 14 subject areas and 32 European countries. Our results illustrate the unintended consequences following the 2004/2007 enlargement, namely, its negative impact on cross-border collaboration in science. First, we use the synthetic control method to show that levels of European cross-border collaboration would have been higher without EU enlargement, despite the 2004/2007 EU entrants gaining access to EU resources incentivizing cross-border integration. Second, we implement a difference-in-difference panel regression, incorporating official intra-European high-skilled mobility statistics, to identify migration imbalance-principally from entrant to incumbent EU member states-as a major factor underlying the divergence in cross-border integration between Western and Eastern Europe. These results challenge central tenets underlying ERA integration policies that unifying labor markets will increase the international competitiveness of the ERA, thereby calling attention to the need for effective home-return incentives and policies.

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Susmita; Rao, Krishna D.; Dowdy, David W.

2016-01-01

Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical ‘hotspots’ compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India—a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100 000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination—a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and

Quantifying carbon footprint reduction opportunities for U.S. households and communities.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher M; Kammen, Daniel M

2011-05-01

Carbon management is of increasing interest to individuals, households, and communities. In order to effectively assess and manage their climate impacts, individuals need information on the financial and greenhouse gas benefits of effective mitigation opportunities. We use consumption-based life cycle accounting techniques to quantify the carbon footprints of typical U.S. households in 28 cities for 6 household sizes and 12 income brackets. The model includes emissions embodied in transportation, energy, water, waste, food, goods, and services. We further quantify greenhouse gas and financial savings from 13 potential mitigation actions across all household types. The model suggests that the size and composition of carbon footprints vary dramatically between geographic regions and within regions based on basic demographic characteristics. Despite these differences, large cash-positive carbon footprint reductions are evident across all household types and locations; however, realizing this potential may require tailoring policies and programs to different population segments with very different carbon footprint profiles. The results of this model have been incorporated into an open access online carbon footprint management tool designed to enable behavior change at the household level through personalized feedback.

Compound Motor Action Potential Quantifies Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Innervation in a Canine Model.

PubMed

Bhatt, Neel K; Park, Andrea M; Al-Lozi, Muhammad; Paniello, Randal C

2016-07-01

The compound motor action potential (CMAP) is the summated action potential from multiple muscle fibers activated by a single nerve impulse. The utility of laryngeal muscle CMAP for quantifying innervation following recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) injury was investigated. In a series of 21 canine hemi-laryngeal preparations, RLNs were exposed and a stimulating electrode placed. Maximum CMAP amplitudes and area under the curve from the thyroarytenoid (TA) muscles were obtained at baseline and at 6 months following injury to the RLN. Injury mechanisms included crush, stretch, cautery, and complete transection with microsuture repair. Prior to injury, baseline CMAP amplitudes and area under the curve were 15.81 mV and 15.49mVms, respectively. Six months following injury, CMAP amplitude and area under curve were 105.1% and 102.1% of baseline for stretch, 98.7% and 112.7% for crush, 93.3% and 114.3% for cautery. The CMAP amplitude and area under the curve in the transection/repair group had a 54.3% and 69.4% recovery, respectively, which were significantly different than baseline (P < .01, P < .05). These values were correlated with vocal fold motion. The CMAP is a measure of vocal fold innervation. The technique could be further developed for clinical and experimental applications. © The Author(s) 2016.

Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

PubMed

Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

2013-06-01

The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boysen, L. R.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.

2016-09-01

Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are often considered a feasible and safe climate engineering proposal for extracting carbon from the atmosphere and, thereby, reducing global mean temperatures. However, the capacity of such terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) strategies and their larger Earth system impacts remain to be comprehensively studied—even more so under higher carbon emissions and progressing climate change. Here, we use a spatially explicit process-based biosphere model to systematically quantify the potentials and trade-offs of a range of BP scenarios dedicated to tCDR, representing different assumptions about which areas are convertible. Based on a moderate CO2 concentration pathway resulting in a global mean warming of 2.5 °C above preindustrial level by the end of this century—similar to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5—we assume tCDR to be implemented when a warming of 1.5 °C is reached in year 2038. Our results show that BPs can slow down the progression of increasing cumulative carbon in the atmosphere only sufficiently if emissions are reduced simultaneously like in the underlying RCP4.5 trajectory. The potential of tCDR to balance additional, unabated emissions leading towards a business-as-usual pathway alike RCP8.5 is therefore very limited. Furthermore, in the required large-scale applications, these plantations would induce significant trade-offs with food production and biodiversity and exert impacts on forest extent, biogeochemical cycles and biogeophysical properties.

Predicting the quantifiable impacts of ISO 50001 on climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKane, Aimee; Therkelsen, Peter; Scodel, Anna

The ISO 50001-Energy management standard provides a continual improvement framework for organizations to reduce their energy consumption, which in the industrial and commercial (service) sectors, accounts for nearly 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing this energy consumption will be critical for countries to achieve their national greenhouse gas reduction commitments. Several national policies already support ISO 50001; however, there is no transparent, consistent process to estimate the potential impacts of its implementation. This paper presents the ISO 50001 Impacts Methodology, an internationally-developed methodology to calculate these impacts at a national, regional, or global scale suitable for use by policymakers.more » The recently-formed ISO 50001 Global Impacts Research Network provides a forum for policymakers to refine and encourage use of the methodology. Using this methodology, a scenario with 50% of projected global industrial and service sector energy consumption under ISO 50001 management by 2030 would generate cumulative primary energy savings of approximately 105 EJ, cost savings of nearly US $700 billion (discounted to 2016 net present value), and 6500 million metric tons (Mt) of avoided CO 2 emissions. The avoided annual CO 2 emissions in 2030 alone are equivalent to removing 210 million passenger vehicles from the road.« less

Quantifying Impacts of Food Trade on Water Availability Considering Water Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Yano, S.; Hanasaki, N.

2012-12-01

Food production requires a lot of water, and traded food potentially has external impacts on environment through reducing the water availability in the producing region. Water footprint is supposed to be an indicator to reflect the impacts of water use. However, impacts of water use on environment, resource, and sustainability are different in place and time, and according to the sources of water withdrawals. Therefore it is preferable to characterize the water withdrawals or consumptions rather than just accumulate the total amount of water use when estimating water footprint. In this study, a new methodology, global green-water equivalent method, is proposed in which regional characterization factors are determined based on the estimates of natural hydrological cycles, such as precipitation, total runoff, and sub-surface runoff, and applied for green-water, river(+reservoir) water, and non-renewable ground water uses. Water footprint of the world associated with the production of 19 major crops was estimated using an integrated hydrological and water resources modeling system (H08), with atmospheric forcing data for 1991-2000 with spatial resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 longitudinal and latitudinal degrees. The impacts is estimated to be 6 times larger than the simple summation of green and blue water uses, and reflect the climatological water scarcity conditions geographically. The results can be used to compare the possible impacts of food trade associated with various crops from various regions on environment through reducing the availability of water resources in the cropping area.

The Potential Socio-economic Impacts of Gas Hydrate Exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, David; Schaafsma, Marije; Marin-Moreno, Héctor; Minshull, Tim A.

2017-04-01

Gas hydrate has garnered significant interest as a possible clean fossil fuel resource, especially in countries with limited energy supplies. Whilst the sector is still in its infancy, there has been escalating development towards commercial production. To the best of our knowledge it appears that, despite its potential, existing analyses of the social and economic impacts of hydrate exploitation have been very limited. Before any viable commercial production commences, the potential impacts across society must be considered. It is likely that such impact assessments will become a legislative requirement for hydrate exploitation, similar to their requirement in conventional oil and gas projects. Social impact analysis should guide hydrate development to have the highest possible net benefits to the human and natural environment. Without active commercial hydrate operations, potential socio-economic impacts can only be inferred from other fossil fuel resource focused communities, including those directly or indirectly affected by the oil and gas industry either in the vicinity of the well or further afield. This review attempts to highlight potential impacts by synthesising current literature, focusing on social impacts at the extraction stage of operation, over time. Using a DPSIR (Driving forces; Pressures; States; Impacts; Responses) framework, we focus on impacts upon: health and wellbeing, land use and access, services and infrastructure, population, employment opportunities, income and lifestyles. Human populations directly or indirectly related with fossil fuel extraction activities often show boom and bust dynamics, and so any impacts may be finite or change temporally. Therefore potential impacts have to be reassessed throughout the lifetime of the exploitation. Our review shows there are a wide range of possible positive and negative socio-economic impacts from hydrate development. Exploitation can bring jobs and infrastructure to remote areas, although

Quantifying Anthropogenic Dust Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Nicholas P.; Pierre, Caroline

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including local environmental disturbances, moderate rates of wind-driven soil erosion and dust emission. These human-dust cycle interactions impact ecosystems and agricultural production, air quality, human health, biogeochemical cycles, and climate. While the impacts of land use activities and land management on aeolian processes can be profound, the interactions are often complex and assessments of anthropogenic dust loads at all scales remain highly uncertain. Here, we critically review the drivers of anthropogenic dust emission and current evaluation approaches. We then identify and describe opportunities to: (1) develop new conceptual frameworks and interdisciplinary approaches that draw on ecological state-and-transition models to improve the accuracy and relevance of assessments of anthropogenic dust emissions; (2) improve model fidelity and capacity for change detection to quantify anthropogenic impacts on aeolian processes; and (3) enhance field research and monitoring networks to support dust model applications to evaluate the impacts of disturbance processes on local to global-scale wind erosion and dust emissions.

Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.

PubMed

Kolstad, Erik W; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-03-01

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.

Quantifying the propagation of distress and mental disorders in social networks.

PubMed

Scatà, Marialisa; Di Stefano, Alessandro; La Corte, Aurelio; Liò, Pietro

2018-03-22

Heterogeneity of human beings leads to think and react differently to social phenomena. Awareness and homophily drive people to weigh interactions in social multiplex networks, influencing a potential contagion effect. To quantify the impact of heterogeneity on spreading dynamics, we propose a model of coevolution of social contagion and awareness, through the introduction of statistical estimators, in a weighted multiplex network. Multiplexity of networked individuals may trigger propagation enough to produce effects among vulnerable subjects experiencing distress, mental disorder, which represent some of the strongest predictors of suicidal behaviours. The exposure to suicide is emotionally harmful, since talking about it may give support or inadvertently promote it. To disclose the complex effect of the overlapping awareness on suicidal ideation spreading among disordered people, we also introduce a data-driven approach by integrating different types of data. Our modelling approach unveils the relationship between distress and mental disorders propagation and suicidal ideation spreading, shedding light on the role of awareness in a social network for suicide prevention. The proposed model is able to quantify the impact of overlapping awareness on suicidal ideation spreading and our findings demonstrate that it plays a dual role on contagion, either reinforcing or delaying the contagion outbreak.

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications climate change has had on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report describes the potential scope and magnitude of climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow (CSOs) mitigation efforts in the Great Lakes Region and New England Region.

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borchert, Sinéad M.; Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen

2018-01-01

Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze.We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100).Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries).The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries.Synthesis and applications. Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal

Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Taubenböck, H.; Strunz, G.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Decision makers at the community level need detailed information on tsunami risks in their area. Knowledge on potential hazard impact, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, people's coping capacity and recovery potential are crucial to plan precautionary measures for adaptation and to mitigate potential impacts of tsunamis on society and the environment. A crucial point within a people-centred tsunami risk assessment is to quantify the human response capabilities towards tsunami threats. Based on this quantification and spatial representation in maps tsunami affected and safe areas, difficult-to-evacuate areas, evacuation target points and evacuation routes can be assigned and used as an important contribution to e.g. community level evacuation planning. Major component in the quantification of human response capabilities towards tsunami impacts is the factor time. The human response capabilities depend on the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a tsunami, the time until technical or natural warning signs (ToNW) can be received, the reaction time (RT) of the population (human understanding of a tsunami warning and the decision to take appropriate action), the evacuation time (ET, time people need to reach a safe area) and the actual available response time (RsT = ETA - ToNW - RT). If RsT is larger than ET, people in the respective areas are able to reach a safe area and rescue themselves. Critical areas possess RsT values equal or even smaller ET and hence people whin these areas will be directly affected by a tsunami. Quantifying the factor time is challenging and an attempt to this is presented here. The ETA can be derived by analyzing pre-computed tsunami scenarios for a respective area. For ToNW we assume that the early warning center is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. RT is difficult as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience

Quantifiers More or Less Quantify On-Line: ERP Evidence for Partial Incremental Interpretation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urbach, Thomas P.; Kutas, Marta

2010-01-01

Event-related brain potentials were recorded during RSVP reading to test the hypothesis that quantifier expressions are incrementally interpreted fully and immediately. In sentences tapping general knowledge ("Farmers grow crops/worms as their primary source of income"), Experiment 1 found larger N400s for atypical ("worms") than typical objects…

Rainfall Chemistry and Potential Beneficial/Detrimental Impact to Indigenous Vegetation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-23

AD-A138 471 RAINFALL CHEMISTRY AND POTENTIAL BENEFIC IAL/DETRIMENTAL 1/ S NABARRR RFRA BEWNEIMPACT TO INDIGEN .. (U) VIRGINIA POLYTECHN C INST AND...ReportRainfall Chemistry and Potential Beneficial/21/ 2/ZA0,Detrimental Impact to Indigenous Vegetation .. PERFORMING Ono. REPORT NUMMER A4JTHOR(sJ 6...pollution sensitivity of coniferous species which grow near RAAP. $1 RAINFALL CHEMISTRY AND POTENTIAL BENEFICIAL/DETRIMENTAL IMPACT TO INDIGENOUS

Impacts of Glutaraldehyde on Microbial Community Structure and Degradation Potential in Streams Impacted by Hydraulic Fracturing.

PubMed

Campa, Maria Fernanda; Techtmann, Stephen M; Gibson, Caleb M; Zhu, Xiaojuan; Patterson, Megan; Garcia de Matos Amaral, Amanda; Ulrich, Nikea; Campagna, Shawn R; Grant, Christopher J; Lamendella, Regina; Hazen, Terry C

2018-05-15

The environmental impacts of hydraulic fracturing, particularly those of surface spills in aquatic ecosystems, are not fully understood. The goals of this study were to (1) understand the effect of previous exposure to hydraulic fracturing fluids on aquatic microbial community structure and (2) examine the impacts exposure has on biodegradation potential of the biocide glutaraldehyde. Microcosms were constructed from hydraulic fracturing-impacted and nonhydraulic fracturing-impacted streamwater within the Marcellus shale region in Pennsylvania. Microcosms were amended with glutaraldehyde and incubated aerobically for 56 days. Microbial community adaptation to glutaraldehyde was monitored using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and quantification by qPCR. Abiotic and biotic glutaraldehyde degradation was measured using ultra-performance liquid chromatography--high resolution mass spectrometry and total organic carbon. It was found that nonhydraulic fracturing-impacted microcosms biodegraded glutaraldehyde faster than the hydraulic fracturing-impacted microcosms, showing a decrease in degradation potential after exposure to hydraulic fracturing activity. Hydraulic fracturing-impacted microcosms showed higher richness after glutaraldehyde exposure compared to unimpacted streams, indicating an increased tolerance to glutaraldehyde in hydraulic fracturing impacted streams. Beta diversity and differential abundance analysis of sequence count data showed different bacterial enrichment for hydraulic fracturing-impacted and nonhydraulic fracturing-impacted microcosms after glutaraldehyde addition. These findings demonstrated a lasting effect on microbial community structure and glutaraldehyde degradation potential in streams impacted by hydraulic fracturing operations.

Virtual impact: visualizing the potential effects of cosmic impact in human history

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masse, W Bruce; Janecky, David R; Forte, Maurizio

2009-01-01

Current models indicate that catastrophic impacts by asteroids and comets capable of killing more than one quarter of Earth's human population have occurred on average once every million years; smaller impacts, such the 1908 Tunguska impact that leveled more than 2,000 square km of Siberian forest, occur every 200-300 years. Therefore, cosmic impact likely significantly affected hominine evolution and conceivably played a role in Holocene period human culture history. Regrettably, few archaeologists are trained to appreciate the nature and potential effects of cosmic impact. We have developed a conceptual model for an extensible set of educational and research tools basedmore » on virtual reality collaborative environments to engage archaeologists and the general public on the topic of the role of cosmic impact in human history. Our initial focus is on two documented asteroid impacts in Argentina during the period of 4000 to 1000 B.C. Campo del Cicio resulted in an energy release of around 2-3 megatons (100-150 times the Hiroshima atomic weapon), and left several craters and a strewn field covering 493 km{sup 2} in northeastern Argentina. Rio Cuarto was likely more than 1000 megatons and may have devastated an area greater than 50,000 km{sup 2} in central Argentina. We are focusing on reconstructions of these events and their potential effects on contemporary hunter and gatherers. Our vinual reality tools also introduce interactive variables (e.g., impactor physical properties, climate, vegetation, topography, and social complexity) to allow researchers and students to better investigate and evaluate the factors that significantly influence cosmic impact effects.« less

Quantifying the impact of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regimes in a large floodplain lake: Poyang Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Jing; Zhang, Qi; Ye, Xuchun; Zhang, Dan; Bai, Peng

2018-06-01

The hydrological regime of a lake is largely dependent on its bathymetry. A dramatic water level reduction has occurred in Poyang Lake in recent years, coinciding with significant bed erosion. Few studies have focused on the influence of bathymetric changes on the hydrological regime in such a complex river-lake floodplain system. This study combined hydrological data and a physically based hydrodynamic model to quantify the influence of the bathymetric changes (1998-2010) on the water level spatiotemporal distribution in Poyang Lake, based on a dry year (2006), a wet year (2010) and an average year (2000-2010). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of this study: (1) The bed erosion of the northern outlet channel averaged 3 m, resulting in a decrease in the water level by 1.2-2 m in the northern channels (the most significantly influenced areas) and approximately 0.3 m in the central lake areas during low-level periods. The water levels below 16 m and 14 m were significantly affected during the rising period and recession period, respectively. The water level reduction was enhanced due to lower water levels. (2) The water surface profiles adjusted, and the rising and recession rates of the water level increased by 0.5-3.1 cm/d at the lake outlet. The bathymetric influence extended across the entire lake due to the emptying effect, resulting in a change in the water level distribution. The average annual outflow increased by 6.8%. (3) The bathymetric changes contributed approximately 14.4% to the extreme low water level in autumn 2006 and enhanced the drought in the dry season. This study quantified the impact of the bathymetric changes on the lake water levels, thereby providing a better understanding of the potential effects of continued sand mining operations and providing scientific explanations for the considerable variations in the hydrological regimes of Poyang Lake. Moreover, this study attempts to provide a reference for the assessment of

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

Quantifying the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment storage-discharge dynamics using paired-catchment data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Lei; Zhang, Lu; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Canadell, Josep G.; Zhao, Fangfang; Wang, Ying-Ping; Hu, Xianqun; Lin, Kairong

2017-07-01

It is widely recognized that vegetation changes can significantly affect the local water availability. Methods have been developed to predict the effects of vegetation change on water yield or total streamflow. However, it is still a challenge to predict changes in base flow following vegetation change due to limited understanding of catchment storage-discharge dynamics. In this study, the power law relationship for describing catchment storage-discharge dynamics is reformulated to quantify the changes in storage-discharge relationship resulting from vegetation changes using streamflow data from six paired-catchment experiments, of which two are deforestation catchments and four are afforestation catchments. Streamflow observations from the paired-catchment experiments clearly demonstrate that vegetation changes have led to significant changes in catchment storage-discharge relationships, accounting for about 83-128% of the changes in groundwater discharge in the treated catchments. Deforestation has led to increases in groundwater discharge (or base flow) but afforestation has resulted in decreases in groundwater discharge. Further analysis shows that the contribution of changes in groundwater discharge to the total changes in streamflow varies greatly among experimental catchments ranging from 12% to 80% with a mean of 38 ± 22% (μ ± σ). This study proposed a new method to quantify the effects of vegetation changes on groundwater discharge from catchment storage and will improve our predictability about the impacts of vegetation changes on catchment water yields.

An approach for quantifying geomorphological impacts for EIA of transportation infrastructures: a case study in northern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonachea, Jaime; Bruschi, Viola Maria; Remondo, Juan; González-Díez, Alberto; Salas, Luis; Bertens, Jurjen; Cendrero, Antonio; Otero, César; Giusti, Cecilia; Fabbri, Andrea; González-Lastra, José Ramón; Aramburu, José María

2005-03-01

A methodological proposal for the assessment of impacts due to linear infrastructures such as motorways, railways, etc. is presented. The approach proposed includes a series of specific issues to be addressed for each geomorphological feature analysed—both 'static' and 'dynamic'—as well as a series of steps to be followed in the process. Geomorphic characteristics potentially affected were initially identified on the basis of a conceptual activities/impacts model that helps to single out geomorphic impacts related to environmental concerns for the area. The following issues were addressed for each individual impact: nature of potential effects; indicators that can be used to measure impacts; criteria of 'geomorphologic performance'; procedure for measurement/prediction of changes; translation of geomorphologic impacts into significant terms from the viewpoint of human concerns; possible mitigation and/or compensation measures. The procedure has been applied to a case study corresponding to a new motorway in the Basque Country, northern Spain. Geomorphological impacts considered in this analysis included: (1) consumable resources; (2) sites of geomorphological interest; (3) land units with high potential for use, high productivity or value for conservation; (4) visual landscape; (5) slope instability processes. The procedure has been designed for implementation in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. Details are given on the application of the method to each individual impact analysed and results are presented in both numerical and map form. Impacts assessed were initially expressed by means of heterogeneous magnitudes, depending on the geomorphological feature considered. Those geomorphological impacts were then translated into significant terms and homogeneous magnitudes. Integration was carried out on the basis of impact values thus obtained. Final integrated results were also expressed in numerical and map form. The method proposed enables

The Pagerank-Index: Going beyond Citation Counts in Quantifying Scientific Impact of Researchers

PubMed Central

Senanayake, Upul; Piraveenan, Mahendra; Zomaya, Albert

2015-01-01

Quantifying and comparing the scientific output of researchers has become critical for governments, funding agencies and universities. Comparison by reputation and direct assessment of contributions to the field is no longer possible, as the number of scientists increases and traditional definitions about scientific fields become blurred. The h-index is often used for comparing scientists, but has several well-documented shortcomings. In this paper, we introduce a new index for measuring and comparing the publication records of scientists: the pagerank-index (symbolised as π). The index uses a version of pagerank algorithm and the citation networks of papers in its computation, and is fundamentally different from the existing variants of h-index because it considers not only the number of citations but also the actual impact of each citation. We adapt two approaches to demonstrate the utility of the new index. Firstly, we use a simulation model of a community of authors, whereby we create various ‘groups’ of authors which are different from each other in inherent publication habits, to show that the pagerank-index is fairer than the existing indices in three distinct scenarios: (i) when authors try to ‘massage’ their index by publishing papers in low-quality outlets primarily to self-cite other papers (ii) when authors collaborate in large groups in order to obtain more authorships (iii) when authors spend most of their time in producing genuine but low quality publications that would massage their index. Secondly, we undertake two real world case studies: (i) the evolving author community of quantum game theory, as defined by Google Scholar (ii) a snapshot of the high energy physics (HEP) theory research community in arXiv. In both case studies, we find that the list of top authors vary very significantly when h-index and pagerank-index are used for comparison. We show that in both cases, authors who have collaborated in large groups and/or published less

The Pagerank-Index: Going beyond Citation Counts in Quantifying Scientific Impact of Researchers.

PubMed

Senanayake, Upul; Piraveenan, Mahendra; Zomaya, Albert

2015-01-01

Quantifying and comparing the scientific output of researchers has become critical for governments, funding agencies and universities. Comparison by reputation and direct assessment of contributions to the field is no longer possible, as the number of scientists increases and traditional definitions about scientific fields become blurred. The h-index is often used for comparing scientists, but has several well-documented shortcomings. In this paper, we introduce a new index for measuring and comparing the publication records of scientists: the pagerank-index (symbolised as π). The index uses a version of pagerank algorithm and the citation networks of papers in its computation, and is fundamentally different from the existing variants of h-index because it considers not only the number of citations but also the actual impact of each citation. We adapt two approaches to demonstrate the utility of the new index. Firstly, we use a simulation model of a community of authors, whereby we create various 'groups' of authors which are different from each other in inherent publication habits, to show that the pagerank-index is fairer than the existing indices in three distinct scenarios: (i) when authors try to 'massage' their index by publishing papers in low-quality outlets primarily to self-cite other papers (ii) when authors collaborate in large groups in order to obtain more authorships (iii) when authors spend most of their time in producing genuine but low quality publications that would massage their index. Secondly, we undertake two real world case studies: (i) the evolving author community of quantum game theory, as defined by Google Scholar (ii) a snapshot of the high energy physics (HEP) theory research community in arXiv. In both case studies, we find that the list of top authors vary very significantly when h-index and pagerank-index are used for comparison. We show that in both cases, authors who have collaborated in large groups and/or published less

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sridhar, Banavar; Chen, Neil; Ng, Hok

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135

Potential impacts of nanotechnology on energy transmission applications and needs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elcock, D.; Environmental Science Division

2007-11-30

The application of nanotechnologies to energy transmission has the potential to significantly impact both the deployed transmission technologies and the need for additional development. This could be a factor in assessing environmental impacts of right-of-way (ROW) development and use. For example, some nanotechnology applications may produce materials (e.g., cables) that are much stronger per unit volume than existing materials, enabling reduced footprints for construction and maintenance of electricity transmission lines. Other applications, such as more efficient lighting, lighter-weight materials for vehicle construction, and smaller batteries having greater storage capacities may reduce the need for long-distance transport of energy, and possiblymore » reduce the need for extensive future ROW development and many attendant environmental impacts. This report introduces the field of nanotechnology, describes some of the ways in which processes and products developed with or incorporating nanomaterials differ from traditional processes and products, and identifies some examples of how nanotechnology may be used to reduce potential ROW impacts. Potential environmental, safety, and health impacts are also discussed.« less

Intensity of play behavior as a potential measure of welfare: A novel method for quantifying the integrated intensity of behavior in African elephants.

PubMed

Vicino, Greg A; Marcacci, Emily S

2015-01-01

To the authors' knowledge there is currently no discrete index to measure the integrated intensity of a play bout in mammals, despite the potential for using intensity and duration of play bouts as a measure of physical activity and welfare. This study was developed to test an equation that quantified the intensity and duration of play bouts in a particularly gregarious mammal, African elephants (Loxodonta africana) housed at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park in Escondido, CA. To quantify these behaviors, we created a scale of intensity and a subsequent equation that produces an index value, giving each unique bout a score. A compilation of these scores provides a range of intensity of play behavior that is a representative value for that particular herd at that point in time, and thus a database to which later bouts can be compared. It can be argued that play behavior is an indicator of positive welfare, and if quantifiable, it is our belief that it can be used as an additional measure of positive welfare in zoo housed animals. Here we present the methods and technique used to calculate a standardized Integrated Play Index (IPI) that has potential for use in other socially living species that are known to exhibit play behavior. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Land Use in LCA: Including Regionally Altered Precipitation to Quantify Ecosystem Damage.

PubMed

Lathuillière, Michael J; Bulle, Cécile; Johnson, Mark S

2016-11-01

The incorporation of soil moisture regenerated by precipitation, or green water, into life cycle assessment has been of growing interest given the global importance of this resource for terrestrial ecosystems and food production. This paper proposes a new impact assessment model to relate land and water use in seasonally dry, semiarid, and arid regions where precipitation and evapotranspiration are closely coupled. We introduce the Precipitation Reduction Potential midpoint impact representing the change in downwind precipitation as a result of a land transformation and occupation activity. Then, our end-point impact model quantifies terrestrial ecosystem damage as a function of precipitation loss using a relationship between woody plant species richness, water and energy regimes. We then apply the midpoint and end-point models to the production of soybean in Southeastern Amazonia which has resulted from the expansion of cropland into tropical forest, with noted effects on local precipitation. Our proposed cause-effect chain represents a complementary approach to previous contributions which have focused on water consumption impacts and/or have represented evapotranspiration as a loss to the water cycle.

Geothermal Impact Analysis | Geothermal Technologies | NREL

Science.gov Websites

on potential geothermal growth scenarios, jobs and economic impacts, clean energy manufacturing geothermal resources. We: Perform resource analysis Develop techno-economic models Quantify environmental growth scenarios across multiple market sectors. Learn more about the GeoVision Study. Jobs and Economic

Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-04-01

Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Pfister, Gabriele G; Nychka, Doug

2016-03-01

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Economic Impacts Analysis of Shale Gas Investment in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shangfeng; Zhang, Baosheng; Wang, Xuecheng

2018-01-01

Chinese government has announced an ambitious shale gas extraction plan, which requires significant investment. This has the potential to draw investment from other areas and may affect the whole China’s economy. There is few study to date has quantified these shale gas investment’s effects on Chinese economy. The aim of this paper is to quantify the economic effect and figures out whether shale gas investment in China is a good choice or not. Input-output analysis has been utilized in this study to estimate the economic impacts in four different Chinese regions. Our findings show that shale gas investment will result in approximately 868, 427, 115 and 42 Billion RMB economic impacts in Sichuan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou, respectively. The total economic impact is only around 1453 Billion RMB, which is not significant compared to the economic impact of coalbed methane investment. Considering the potential risks of environmental issues, we suggest that it may be a better strategy for the government, at least in the current situation, to slow down shale gas development investment.

Bioenergy Sustainability in China: Potential and Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Jie; Gentry, Randall W.; Yu, Gui-Rui; Sayler, Gary S.; Bickham, John W.

2010-10-01

The sustainability implications of bioenergy development strategies are large and complex. Unlike conventional agriculture, bioenergy production provides an opportunity to design systems for improving eco-environmental services. Different places have different goals and solutions for bioenergy development, but they all should adhere to the sustainability requirements of the environment, economy, and society. This article serves as a brief overview of China’s bioenergy development and as an introduction to this special issue on the impacts of bioenergy development in China. The eleven articles in this special issue present a range of perspectives and scenario analyses on bioenergy production and its impacts as well as potential barriers to its development. Five general themes are covered: status and goals, biomass resources, energy plants, environmental impacts, and economic and social impacts. The potential for bioenergy production in China is huge, particularly in the central north and northwest. China plans to develop a bioenergy capacity of 30GW by 2020. However, realization of this goal will require breakthroughs in bioenergy landscape design, energy plant biotechnology, legislation, incentive policy, and conversion facilities. Our analyses suggest that (1) the linkage between bioenergy, environment, and economy are often circular rather than linear in nature; (2) sustainability is a core concept in bioenergy design and the ultimate goal of bioenergy development; and (3) each bioenergy development scheme must be region-specific and designed to solve local environmental and agricultural problems.

Regional characterization of freshwater Use in LCA: modeling direct impacts on human health.

PubMed

Boulay, Anne-Marie; Bulle, Cécile; Bayart, Jean-Baptiste; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

2011-10-15

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology that quantifies potential environmental impacts for comparative purposes in a decision-making context. While potential environmental impacts from pollutant emissions into water are characterized in LCA, impacts from water unavailability are not yet fully quantified. Water use can make the resource unavailable to other users by displacement or quality degradation. A reduction in water availability to human users can potentially affect human health. If financial resources are available, there can be adaptations that may, in turn, shift the environmental burdens to other life cycle stages and impact categories. This paper proposes a model to evaluate these potential impacts in an LCA context. It considers the water that is withdrawn and released, its quality and scarcity in order to evaluate the loss of functionality associated with water uses. Regionalized results are presented for impacts on human health for two modeling approaches regarding affected users, including or not domestic uses, and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). A consumption and quality based scarcity indicator is also proposed as a midpoint. An illustrative example is presented for the production of corrugated board with different effluents, demonstrating the importance of considering quality, process effluents and the difference between the modeling approaches.

Are stormwater pollution impacts significant in life cycle assessment? A new methodology for quantifying embedded urban stormwater impacts.

PubMed

Phillips, Robert; Jeswani, Harish Kumar; Azapagic, Adisa; Apul, Defne

2018-09-15

Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models do not explicitly incorporate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution. To address this issue, a framework to estimate the impacts from urban stormwater pollution over the lifetime of a system has been developed, laying the groundwork for subsequent improvements in life cycle databases and LCA modelling. The proposed framework incorporates urban stormwater event mean concentration (EMC) data into existing LCA impact categories to account for the environmental impacts associated with urban land occupation across the whole life cycle of a system. It consists of five steps: (1) compilation of inventory of urban stormwater pollutants; (2) collection of precipitation data; (3) classification and characterisation within existing midpoint impact categories; (4) collation of inventory data for impermeable urban land occupation; and (5) impact assessment. The framework is generic and can be applied to any system using any LCA impact method. Its application is demonstrated by two illustrative case studies: electricity generation and production of construction materials. The results show that pollutants in urban stormwater have an influence on human toxicity, freshwater and marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, freshwater eutrophication and terrestrial ecotoxicity. Among these, urban stormwater pollution has the highest relative contribution to the eutrophication potentials. The results also suggest that stormwater pollution from urban areas can have a substantial effect on the life cycle impacts of some systems (construction materials), while for some systems the effect is small (e.g. electricity generation). However, it is not possible to determine a priori which systems are affected so that the impacts from stormwater pollution should be considered routinely in future LCA studies. The paper also proposes ways to incorporate stormwater pollution burdens into the life cycle databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

Quantifying agricultural drought impacts using soil moisture model and drought indices in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, W. H.; Bang, N.; Hong, E. M.; Pachepsky, Y. A.; Han, K. H.; Cho, H.; Ok, J.; Hong, S. Y.

2017-12-01

Agricultural drought is defined as a combination of abnormal deficiency of precipitation, increased crop evapotranspiration demands from high-temperature anomalies, and soil moisture deficits during the crop growth period. Soil moisture variability and their spatio-temporal trends is a key component of the hydrological balance, which determines the crop production and drought stresses in the context of agriculture. In 2017, South Korea has identified the extreme drought event, the worst in one hundred years according to the South Korean government. The objective of this study is to quantify agricultural drought impacts using observed and simulated soil moisture, and various drought indices. A soil water balance model is used to simulate the soil water content in the crop root zone under rain-fed (no irrigation) conditions. The model used includes physical process using estimated effective rainfall, infiltration, redistribution in soil water zone, and plant water uptake in the form of actual crop evapotranspiration. Three widely used drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI) are compared with the observed and simulated soil moisture in the context of agricultural drought impacts. These results demonstrated that the soil moisture model could be an effective tool to provide improved spatial and temporal drought monitoring for drought policy.

Quantifying Variation in Head Start Effects on Young Children's Cognitive and Socio-Emotional Skills Using Data from the National Head Start Impact Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloom, Howard S.; Weiland, Christina

2015-01-01

This paper uses data from the Head Start Impact Study (HSIS), a nationally representative multisite randomized trial, to quantify variation in effects of Head Start during 2002-2003 on children's cognitive and socio-emotional outcomes relative to the effects of other local alternatives, including parent care. We find that (1) treatment and control…

STAR Measurements and Modeling for Quantifying Air Quality and Climatic Impacts of Residential Biomass or Coal Combustion for Cooking, Heating and Lighting Kick-off Meeting

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

STAR grantees and EPA scientists will discuss progress on their projects which aim to quantify the extent to which interventions for cleaner cooking, heating, or lighting can impact air quality and climate, which in turn affect human health and welfare

Buildings vs. ballistics: Quantifying the vulnerability of buildings to volcanic ballistic impacts using field studies and pneumatic cannon experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, G. T.; Kennedy, B. M.; Wilson, T. M.; Fitzgerald, R. H.; Tsunematsu, K.; Teissier, A.

2017-09-01

Recent casualties in volcanic eruptions due to trauma from blocks and bombs necessitate more rigorous, ballistic specific risk assessment. Quantitative assessments are limited by a lack of experimental and field data on the vulnerability of buildings to ballistic hazards. An improved, quantitative understanding of building vulnerability to ballistic impacts is required for informing appropriate life safety actions and other risk reduction strategies. We assessed ballistic impacts to buildings from eruptions at Usu Volcano and Mt. Ontake in Japan and compiled available impact data from eruptions elsewhere to identify common damage patterns from ballistic impacts to buildings. We additionally completed a series of cannon experiments which simulate ballistic block impacts to building claddings to investigate their performance over a range of ballistic projectile velocities, masses and energies. Our experiments provide new insights by quantifying (1) the hazard associated with post-impact shrapnel from building and rock fragments; (2) the effect of impact obliquity on damage; and (3) the additional impact resistance buildings possess when claddings are struck in areas directly supported by framing components. This was not well identified in previous work which may have underestimated building vulnerability to ballistic hazards. To improve assessment of building vulnerability to ballistics, we use our experimental and field data to develop quantitative vulnerability models known as fragility functions. Our fragility functions and field studies show that although unreinforced buildings are highly vulnerable to large ballistics (> 20 cm diameter), they can still provide shelter, preventing death during eruptions.

IMPAIRED VERBAL COMPREHENSION OF QUANTIFIERS IN CORTICOBASAL SYNDROME

PubMed Central

Troiani, Vanessa; Clark, Robin; Grossman, Murray

2011-01-01

Objective Patients with Corticobasal Syndrome (CBS) have atrophy in posterior parietal cortex. This region of atrophy has been previously linked with their quantifier comprehension difficulty, but previous studies used visual stimuli, making it difficult to account for potential visuospatial deficits in CBS patients. The current study evaluated comprehension of generalized quantifiers using strictly verbal materials. Method CBS patients, a brain-damaged control group (consisting of Alzheimer's Disease and frontotemporal dementia), and age-matched controls participated in this study. We assessed familiar temporal, spatial, and monetary domains of verbal knowledge comparatively. Judgment accuracy was only evaluated in statements for which patients demonstrated accurate factual knowledge about the target domain. Results We found that patients with CBS are significantly impaired in their ability to evaluate quantifiers compared to healthy seniors and a brain-damaged control group, even in this strictly visual task. This impairment was seen in the vast majority of individual CBS patients. Conclusions These findings offer additional evidence of quantifier impairment in CBS patients and emphasize that this impairment cannot be attributed to potential spatial processing impairments in patients with parietal disease. PMID:21381823

Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

PubMed

Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2013-04-01

The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure.

Quantifying the influence of natural and socioeconomic factors and their interactive impact on PM2.5 pollution in China.

PubMed

Yang, Dongyang; Wang, Xiaomin; Xu, Jianhua; Xu, Chengdong; Lu, Debin; Ye, Chao; Wang, Zujing; Bai, Ling

2018-06-04

PM 2.5 pollution is an environmental issue caused by multiple natural and socioeconomic factors, presenting with significant spatial disparities across mainland China. However, the determinant power of natural and socioeconomic factors and their interactive impact on PM 2.5 pollution is still unclear. In the study, the GeogDetector method was used to quantify nonlinear associations between PM 2.5 and potential factors. This study found that natural factors, including ecological environments and climate, were more influential than socioeconomic factors, and climate was the predominant factor (q = 0.56) in influencing PM 2.5 pollution. Among all interactions of the six influencing factors, the interaction of industry and climate had the largest influence (q = 0.66). Two recognized major contaminated areas were the Tarim Basin in the northwest region and the eastern plain region; the former was mainly influenced by the warm temperate arid climate and desert, and the latter was mainly influenced by the warm temperate semi-humid climate and multiple socioeconomic factors. The findings provided an interpretation of the influencing mechanisms of PM 2.5 pollution, which can contribute to more specific policies aimed at successful PM 2.5 pollution control and abatement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Functionality of Ephemeral Streams at the Watershed Scale for Land Management Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, B. L.; Hamada, Y.; Bowen, E. E.; Wuthrich, K. K.; Grippo, M. A.

2013-12-01

Land development and associated disturbances in arid environments can adversely affect the ecological functionality of ephemeral stream channels. Land use managers have limited methodologies available for assessing low-impact development plans, or for monitoring changes in stream functionality as land use changes are implemented. The development of utility-scale solar energy facilities is underway in the southwestern United States. Federal and state agencies have developed plans to concentrate facilities in specific regions to minimize transmission limitations (e.g., the Bureau of Land Management's Solar Energy Zones cover 1,100 km2). However, multiple facility footprints in a single desert valley have the potential to drastically alter the natural pattern of ephemeral stream networks. This study focuses on quantifying the sensitivity of ephemeral streams with respect to land disturbance impacts on flow and sediment conveyance, groundwater recharge, and the loss of soil and vegetative habitats. An initial assessment used publicly-available geospatial data (typically 10- to 30-m resolution) on topography, surficial geology, and soil characteristics, as well as data on historical peak discharges and aerial photographs. These datasets were used to inform a professional judgment, score-based ranking of potential land disturbance impacts on the functionality of ephemeral streams. The results were limited to mapped stream channels in the National Hydrography Dataset, but suggested that hydrological and geomorphic impacts were a greater concern in valley piedmont regions, and that habitat concerns were greater in the valley regions where vegetation is sparsely distributed. Current efforts are focused on using a remote sensing approach to obtain high-resolution information on topography, soil, and vegetation in order to map detailed ephemeral stream networks, measure channel bathymetry characteristics, and use spectral indices of soil and vegetation to develop surrogate

Quantifying the Impact of the North American Monsoon and Deep Midlatitude Convection on the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere using in Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstock, E. M.; Pittman, J. V.; Sayres, D. S.; Smith, J. B.; Anderson, J. G.; Wofsy, S. C.; Xueref, I.; Gerbig, C.; Daube, B. C.; Pfister, L.;

Preferred drug lists: potential impact on healthcare economics.

PubMed

Ovsag, Kimberly; Hydery, Sabrina; Mousa, Shaker A

2008-01-01

To analyze the implementation of Medicaid preferred drug lists (PDLs) in a number of states and determine its impact on quality of care and cost relative to other segments of healthcare. We reviewed research and case studies found by searching library databases, primarily MEDLINE and EBSCOHost, and searching pertinent journals. Keywords initially included "drug lists," "prior authorization," "prior approval," and "Medicaid." We added terms such as "influence use of other healthcare services," "quality of care," and "overall economic impact." We mainly used primary sources. Based on our literature review, we determined that there are a number of issues regarding Medicaid PDLs that need to be addressed. Some issues include: (a) the potential for PDLs to influence the utilization of other healthcare services, (b) criteria used by Medicaid for determining acceptance of drugs onto a PDL, (c) the effect of PDL implementation on compliance to new regimens, (d) the potential effects of restricting medication availability on quality of care, (e) administrative costs associated with PDLs, and (f) satisfaction rates among patients and medical providers. This review highlighted expected short-term cost savings with limited degree of compromised quality of PDL implementation, but raised the concern about the potential long-term decline in quality of care and overall economic impact. The number of concerns raised indicates that further studies are warranted regarding both short-term cost benefits as well as potential long-term effects of Medicaid PDL implementation. Objective analysis of these effects is necessary to ensure cost-effectiveness and quality of care.

Quantifying the Impact of Food Preparation Skills among College Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soliah, LuAnn; Walter, Janelle; Antosh, Deeanna

2006-01-01

Food preparation practices have changed dramatically in the past fifty years. This study was designed to quantify food preparation knowledge and practices of college women, to assess the reasons why they do not prepare certain foods, and to determine the frequency of eating outside the home. Distinct food preparation ability emerged (high, medium,…

Potential environmental impacts from the metals in incandescent, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL), and light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs.

PubMed

Lim, Seong-Rin; Kang, Daniel; Ogunseitan, Oladele A; Schoenung, Julie M

2013-01-15

Artificial lighting systems are transitioning from incandescent to compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and light-emitting diode (LED) bulbs in response to the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act and the EU Ecodesign Directive, which leads to energy savings and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Although CFLs and LEDs are more energy-efficient than incandescent bulbs, they require more metal-containing components. There is uncertainty about the potential environmental impacts of these components and whether special provisions must be made for their disposal at the end of useful life. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the resource depletion and toxicity potentials from the metals in incandescent, CFL, and LED bulbs to complement the development of sustainable energy policy. We assessed the potentials by examining whether the lighting products are to be categorized as hazardous waste under existing U.S. federal and California state regulations and by applying life cycle impact-based and hazard-based assessment methods (note that "life cycle impact-based method" does not mean a general life cycle assessment (LCA) but rather the elements in LCA used to quantify toxicity potentials). We discovered that both CFL and LED bulbs are categorized as hazardous, due to excessive levels of lead (Pb) leachability (132 and 44 mg/L, respectively; regulatory limit: 5) and the high contents of copper (111,000 and 31,600 mg/kg, respectively; limit: 2500), lead (3860 mg/kg for the CFL bulb; limit: 1000), and zinc (34,500 mg/kg for the CFL bulb; limit: 5000), while the incandescent bulb is not hazardous (note that the results for CFL bulbs excluded mercury vapor not captured during sample preparation). The CFLs and LEDs have higher resource depletion and toxicity potentials than the incandescent bulb due primarily to their high aluminum, copper, gold, lead, silver, and zinc. Comparing the bulbs on an equivalent quantity basis with respect to the expected lifetimes of

Use of smartphones and portable media devices for quantifying human movement characteristics of gait, tendon reflex response, and Parkinson's disease hand tremor.

PubMed

LeMoyne, Robert; Mastroianni, Timothy

2015-01-01

Smartphones and portable media devices are both equipped with sensor components, such as accelerometers. A software application enables these devices to function as a robust wireless accelerometer platform. The recorded accelerometer waveform can be transmitted wireless as an e-mail attachment through connectivity to the Internet. The implication of such devices as a wireless accelerometer platform is the experimental and post-processing locations can be placed anywhere in the world. Gait was quantified by mounting a smartphone or portable media device proximal to the lateral malleolus of the ankle joint. Attributes of the gait cycle were quantified with a considerable accuracy and reliability. The patellar tendon reflex response was quantified by using the device in tandem with a potential energy impact pendulum to evoke the patellar tendon reflex. The acceleration waveform maximum acceleration feature of the reflex response displayed considerable accuracy and reliability. By mounting the smartphone or portable media device to the dorsum of the hand through a glove, Parkinson's disease hand tremor was quantified and contrasted with significance to a non-Parkinson's disease steady hand control. With the methods advocated in this chapter, any aspect of human movement may be quantified through smartphones or portable media devices and post-processed anywhere in the world. These wearable devices are anticipated to substantially impact the biomedical and healthcare industry.

Quantifying the environmental impacts of artisanal fishing gear on Kenya's coral reef ecosystems.

PubMed

Mangi, S C; Roberts, C M

2006-12-01

The environmental impacts of artisanal fishing gear on coral reef ecosystems were studied in the multi-gear fishery of southern Kenya to evaluate which types of gear have the greatest impact on coral reef biodiversity. The gear types studied were large and small traps, gill nets, beach seines, hand lines and spear guns. Levels of coral damage, proportion of juvenile fish and discards, size and maturity stage at first capture were quantified and compared amongst the gear types. Results indicate that fishers using beach seines, spears and gill nets cause the most direct physical damage to corals. Spear fishers showed the highest number of contacts to live corals per unit catch followed by fishers using gill nets (12.6+/-1.8 and 5.9+/-2.0 coral contacts per kg fish caught per trip respectively). Apart from discarding 6.5% of their daily catch in the sea, as it was too small, beach seine fishers also landed the highest percentage of juvenile fish (68.4+/-15.7%), a proportion significantly higher (p<0.001) than in any other gear. The size and maturity stage at first capture for 150 of 195 species caught by all gear types was well below the lengths at which they mature. For example, 100% of Lethrinus xanthochilus, 99% of Lethrinus nebulosus and 94% of Lethrinus harak caught were juveniles. Across all gear types, 50.1+/-22.7% of the catch consisted of juvenile fish, indicating serious growth overfishing. Field assessment of levels of coral density showed that fishing grounds where beach seines were still in use had a significantly lower density than where beach seining was not used. This correlation is likely to arise in part because seines cannot be used in the most coral rich areas, and in part because coral loss is a consequence of seine use. On a per gear basis therefore, beach seines had the most impact on coral reef biodiversity. This study emphasizes the need to enforce restrictions on destructive gear and mesh sizes.

Untapped potential of health impact assessment

PubMed Central

Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2013-01-01

Abstract The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to “green economy” and “institutional framework” strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century’s sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok K.; Sridhar, Banavar; Grabbe, Shon; Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135

Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Use of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models to Quantify the Impact of Human Age and Interindividual Differences in Physiology and Biochemistry Pertinent to Risk Final Report for Cooperative Agreement. Th...

A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

PubMed

Dionisio, Kathie L; Chang, Howard H; Baxter, Lisa K

2016-11-25

Exposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of air pollution and health. ZIP-code level estimates of exposure for six pollutants (CO, NO x , EC, PM 2.5 , SO 4 , O 3 ) from 1999 to 2002 in the Atlanta metropolitan area were used to calculate spatial, population (i.e. ambient versus personal), and total exposure measurement error. Empirically determined covariance of pollutant concentration pairs and the associated measurement errors were used to simulate true exposure (exposure without error) from observed exposure. Daily emergency department visits for respiratory diseases were simulated using a Poisson time-series model with a main pollutant RR = 1.05 per interquartile range, and a null association for the copollutant (RR = 1). Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate the impacts of correlated exposure errors of different copollutant pairs. Substantial attenuation of RRs due to exposure error was evident in nearly all copollutant pairs studied, ranging from 10 to 40% attenuation for spatial error, 3-85% for population error, and 31-85% for total error. When CO, NO x or EC is the main pollutant, we demonstrated the possibility of false positives, specifically identifying significant, positive associations for copollutants based on the estimated type I error rate. The impact of exposure error must be considered when interpreting results of copollutant epidemiologic models, due to the possibility of attenuation of main pollutant RRs and the increased probability of false positives when measurement error is present.

The Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather (US Project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.; Basoli, D.; Griot, O.

2017-12-01

The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for new research into the social and economic impacts of space weather and for the development of quantitative estimates of potential costs. In response to this call, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and Abt Associates are working together to identify, describe, and quantify the impact of space weather to U.S. interests. This study covers impacts resulting from both moderate and severe space weather events across four technological sectors: Electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) users. It captures the full range of potential impacts, identified from an extensive literature review and from additional conversations with more than 50 sector stakeholders of diverse expertise from engineering to operations to end users. We organize and discuss our findings in terms of five broad but interrelated impact categories including Defensive Investments, Mitigating Actions, Asset Damages, Service Interruptions, and Health Effects. We also present simple, tractable estimates of the potential costs where we focused on quantifying a subset of all identified impacts that are apt to be largest and are also most plausible during moderate and more severe space weather scenarios. We hope that our systematic exploration of the social and economic impacts provides a foundation for the future work that is critical for designing technologies, developing procedures, and implementing policies that can effectively reduce our known and evolving vulnerabilities to this natural hazard.

Using a watershed-centric approach to identify potentially impacted beaches

EPA Science Inventory

Beaches can be affected by a variety of contaminants. Of particular concern are beaches impacted by human fecal contamination and urban runoff. This poster demonstrates a methodology to identify potentially impacted beaches using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since h...

Quantifying the impact of androgen therapy on the female larynx.

PubMed

Damrose, Edward J

2009-02-01

To describe the timing of changes in fundamental frequency of the female voice following androgen therapy during female to male gender reassignment. A 33-year-old female semi-professional singer undergoing gender reassignment and intramuscular androgen injections was examined at monthly intervals to monitor the impact of therapy on the voice. Laryngostroboscopy and acoustic analysis were performed simultaneously to monitor for potential laryngeal pathology. Pretreatment mean fundamental frequency (MF(0)) was 228.45 Hz and ranged from 140.26 Hz to 430.64 Hz. Between month 3 and month 4 of treatment, MF(0) declined to 116.52 Hz and ranged from 90.75 Hz to 201.07 Hz. Shimmer increased from 3.4% to 7.8%. Noise to harmonics ratio (NHR) also increased from 0.12 to 0.17. The patient has continued to sing semi-professionally despite these changes in laryngeal function. Androgen therapy exerted a profound change on mean fundamental frequency between the third and fourth months of treatment. In addition, pitch range was reduced in a commensurate fashion. Patients undergoing androgen therapy may undergo a significant change in speaking voice between the third and fourth months of therapy. Moreover, though these changes may exert a profound impact on the singing voice, patients undergoing gender reassignment may still be able to achieve personal and professional success in their singing careers.

Impact of rough potentials in rocked ratchet performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camargo, S.; Anteneodo, C.

2018-04-01

We consider thermal ratchets modeled by overdamped Brownian motion in a spatially periodic potential with a tilting process, both unbiased on average. We investigate the impact of the introduction of roughness in the potential profile, over the flux and efficiency of the ratchet. Both amplitude and wavelength that characterize roughness are varied. We show that depending on the ratchet parameters, rugosity can either spoil or enhance the ratchet performance.

Preferred drug lists: Potential impact on healthcare economics

PubMed Central

Ovsag, Kimberly; Hydery, Sabrina; Mousa, Shaker A

2008-01-01

Objectives To analyze the implementation of Medicaid preferred drug lists (PDLs) in a number of states and determine its impact on quality of care and cost relative to other segments of healthcare. Methods We reviewed research and case studies found by searching library databases, primarily MEDLINE and EBSCOHost, and searching pertinent journals. Keywords initially included “drug lists,” “prior authorization,” “prior approval,” and “Medicaid.” We added terms such as “influence use of other healthcare services,” “quality of care,” and “overall economic impact.” We mainly used primary sources. Results Based on our literature review, we determined that there are a number of issues regarding Medicaid PDLs that need to be addressed. Some issues include: (a) the potential for PDLs to influence the utilization of other healthcare services, (b) criteria used by Medicaid for determining acceptance of drugs onto a PDL, (c)the effect of PDL implementation on compliance to new regimens, (d) the potential effects of restricting medication availability on quality of care, (e) administrative costs associated with PDLs, and (f) satisfaction rates among patients and medical providers. This review highlighted expected short-term cost savings with limited degree of compromised quality of PDL implementation, but raised the concern about the potential long-term decline in quality of care and overall economic impact. Conclusions The number of concerns raised indicates that further studies are warranted regarding both short-term cost benefits as well as potential long-term effects of Medicaid PDL implementation. Objective analysis of these effects is necessary to ensure cost-effectiveness and quality of care. PMID:18561515

Children's interpretations of general quantifiers, specific quantifiers, and generics

PubMed Central

Gelman, Susan A.; Leslie, Sarah-Jane; Was, Alexandra M.; Koch, Christina M.

2014-01-01

Recently, several scholars have hypothesized that generics are a default mode of generalization, and thus that young children may at first treat quantifiers as if they were generic in meaning. To address this issue, the present experiment provides the first in-depth, controlled examination of the interpretation of generics compared to both general quantifiers ("all Xs", "some Xs") and specific quantifiers ("all of these Xs", "some of these Xs"). We provided children (3 and 5 years) and adults with explicit frequency information regarding properties of novel categories, to chart when "some", "all", and generics are deemed appropriate. The data reveal three main findings. First, even 3-year-olds distinguish generics from quantifiers. Second, when children make errors, they tend to be in the direction of treating quantifiers like generics. Third, children were more accurate when interpreting specific versus general quantifiers. We interpret these data as providing evidence for the position that generics are a default mode of generalization, especially when reasoning about kinds. PMID:25893205

Increasing relative nonclassicality quantified by standard entanglement potentials by dissipation and unbalanced beam splitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranowicz, Adam; Bartkiewicz, Karol; Lambert, Neill; Chen, Yueh-Nan; Nori, Franco

2015-12-01

If a single-mode nonclassical light is combined with the vacuum on a beam splitter, then the output state is entangled. As proposed in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 173602 (2005), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.173602], by measuring this output-state entanglement for a balanced lossless beam splitter, one can quantify the input-state nonclassicality. These measures of nonclassicality (referred to as entanglement potentials) can be based, in principle, on various entanglement measures, leading to the negativity (NP) and concurrence (CP) potentials, and the potential for the relative entropy of entanglement (REEP). We search for the maximal relative nonclassicality, which can be achieved by comparing two entanglement measures for (i) arbitrary two-qubit states and (ii) those which can be generated from a photon-number qubit via a balanced lossless beam splitter, where the qubit basis states are the vacuum and single-photon states. Surprisingly, we find that the maximal relative nonclassicality, measured by the REEP for a given value of the NP, can be increased (if NP <0.527 ) by using either a tunable beam splitter or by amplitude damping of the output state of the balanced beam splitter. We also show that the maximal relative nonclassicality, measured by the NP for a given value of the REEP, can be increased by phase damping (dephasing). Note that the entanglement itself is not increased by these losses (since they act locally), but the possible ratios of different measures are affected. Moreover, we show that partially dephased states can be more nonclassical than both pure states and completely dephased states, by comparing the NP for a given value of the REEP. Thus, one can conclude that not all standard entanglement measures can be used as entanglement potentials. Alternatively, one can infer that a single balanced lossless beam splitter is not always transferring the whole nonclassicality of its input state into the entanglement of its output modes. The application of a lossy

Quantifying Third-Party Impacts and Environmental Externalities from a Cap-And-Trade System for Groundwater Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, H. F.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Economic decision models, such as the cap-and-trade system, have been shown to be useful in the context of groundwater management. A uniformly applied cap-and-trade system can however result in significant spatially and temporally varying hydrogeologic impacts that reduce public welfare. Hydrological challenges associated with the cap-and-trade system for groundwater management include establishing appropriate system boundaries, setting system-wide sustainable yield and limiting third party impacts from extractions. Given these challenges, these economic models need to be supplemented with physically based hydrogeologic models that are able to represent the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in conditions across a region. This investigation assesses third-party impacts and environmental externalities resulting from a cap-and-trade system in a sub-basin of the Republican River Basin, overlying the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States. The economic model is coupled with a calibrated physically based groundwater model. The cap-and-trade system is developed using a multi-agent system model where individual benefits of each self-interested agent are maximized subject to bounds on irrigation requirements and water use permits. We then compare the performance of the cap-and-trade system with a smart groundwater market which, in addition to a cap on total groundwater extraction, also incorporates streamflow constraints. The results quantify third-party impacts and environmental externalities resulting from uncontrolled trading. This analysis demonstrates the value added by a well-designed cap-and-trade system able to account for basin-wide heterogeneity in hydrogeologic and ecological conditions by establishing trading limits, managing inter-area transfers and setting exchange rates for permit trading.

Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Farms on North Sea Stratification

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Jeffrey R.; Merckelbach, Lucas; Callies, Ulrich; Clark, Suzanna; Gaslikova, Lidia; Baschek, Burkard

2016-01-01

Advances in offshore wind farm (OWF) technology have recently led to their construction in coastal waters that are deep enough to be seasonally stratified. As tidal currents move past the OWF foundation structures they generate a turbulent wake that will contribute to a mixing of the stratified water column. In this study we show that the mixing generated in this way may have a significant impact on the large-scale stratification of the German Bight region of the North Sea. This region is chosen as the focus of this study since the planning of OWFs is particularly widespread. Using a combination of idealised modelling and in situ measurements, we provide order-of-magnitude estimates of two important time scales that are key to understanding the impacts of OWFs: (i) a mixing time scale, describing how long a complete mixing of the stratification takes, and (ii) an advective time scale, quantifying for how long a water parcel is expected to undergo enhanced wind farm mixing. The results are especially sensitive to both the drag coefficient and type of foundation structure, as well as the evolution of the pycnocline under enhanced mixing conditions—both of which are not well known. With these limitations in mind, the results show that OWFs could impact the large-scale stratification, but only when they occupy extensive shelf regions. They are expected to have very little impact on large-scale stratification at the current capacity in the North Sea, but the impact could be significant in future large-scale development scenarios. PMID:27513754

Potential Impacts of Offshore Wind Farms on North Sea Stratification.

PubMed

Carpenter, Jeffrey R; Merckelbach, Lucas; Callies, Ulrich; Clark, Suzanna; Gaslikova, Lidia; Baschek, Burkard

2016-01-01

Advances in offshore wind farm (OWF) technology have recently led to their construction in coastal waters that are deep enough to be seasonally stratified. As tidal currents move past the OWF foundation structures they generate a turbulent wake that will contribute to a mixing of the stratified water column. In this study we show that the mixing generated in this way may have a significant impact on the large-scale stratification of the German Bight region of the North Sea. This region is chosen as the focus of this study since the planning of OWFs is particularly widespread. Using a combination of idealised modelling and in situ measurements, we provide order-of-magnitude estimates of two important time scales that are key to understanding the impacts of OWFs: (i) a mixing time scale, describing how long a complete mixing of the stratification takes, and (ii) an advective time scale, quantifying for how long a water parcel is expected to undergo enhanced wind farm mixing. The results are especially sensitive to both the drag coefficient and type of foundation structure, as well as the evolution of the pycnocline under enhanced mixing conditions-both of which are not well known. With these limitations in mind, the results show that OWFs could impact the large-scale stratification, but only when they occupy extensive shelf regions. They are expected to have very little impact on large-scale stratification at the current capacity in the North Sea, but the impact could be significant in future large-scale development scenarios.

Potential resource and toxicity impacts from metals in waste electronic devices.

PubMed

Woo, Seung H; Lee, Dae Sung; Lim, Seong-Rin

2016-04-01

As a result of the continuous release of new electronic devices, existing electronic devices are quickly made obsolete and rapidly become electronic waste (e-waste). Because e-waste contains a variety of metals, information about those metals with the potential for substantial environmental impact should be provided to manufacturers, recyclers, and disposers to proactively reduce this impact. This study assesses the resource and toxicity (i.e., cancer, noncancer, and ecotoxicity) potentials of various heavy metals commonly found in e-waste from laptop computers, liquid-crystal display (LCD) monitors, LCD TVs, plasma TVs, color cathode ray tube (CRT) TVs, and cell phones and then evaluates such potentials using life cycle impact-based methods. Resource potentials derive primarily from Cu, Sb, Ag, and Pb. Toxicity potentials derive primarily from Pb, Ni, and Hg for cancer toxicity; from Pb, Hg, Zn, and As for noncancer toxicity; and from Cu, Pb, Hg, and Zn for ecotoxicity. Therefore, managing these heavy metals should be a high priority in the design, recycling, and disposal stages of electronic devices. © 2015 SETAC.

Ice nucleation by cellulose and its potential impact on clouds and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiranuma, Naruki; Möhler, Ottmar; Yamashita, Katsuya; Tajiri, Takuya; Saito, Atsushi; Kiselev, Alexei; Hoose, Corinna; Murakami, Masataka

2014-05-01

Biological aerosol particles have recently been accentuated by their efficient ice nucleating activity as well as potential impact on clouds and global climate. Despite their potential importance, little is known about the abundance of biological particles in the atmosphere and their role compared to non-biological material and, consequently, their potential role in the cloud-hydrology and climate system is also poorly constrained. However, field observations show that the concentration of airborne cellulose, which is one of the most important derivatives of glucose and atmospherically relevant biopolymers, is consistently prevalent (>10 ng per cubic meter) throughout the whole year even at remote- and elevated locations. Here we use a novel cloud simulation chamber in Tsukuba, Japan to demonstrate that airborne cellulose of biological origin can act as efficient ice nucleating particles in super-cooled clouds of the lower and middle troposphere. In specific, we measured the surface-based ice nucleation activity of microcrystalline cellulose particles immersed in cloud droplets, which may add crucial importance to further quantify the role of biological particles as ice nuclei in the troposphere. Our results suggest that the concentration of ice nucleating cellulose to become significant (>0.1 per liter) below about -17 °C and nearly comparable to other known ice nucleating clay mineral particles (e.g., illite rich clay mineral - INUIT comparisons are also presented). An important and unique characteristic of microcrystalline cellulose compared to other particles of biological origin is its high molecular packing density, enhancing resistance to hydrolysis degradation. More in-depth microphysical understandings as well as quantitative observations of ice nucleating cellulose particles in the atmosphere are necessary to allow better estimates of their effects on clouds and the global climate. Acknowledgement: We acknowledge support by German Research Society (Df

Quantifying Potential Groundwater Recharge In South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basant, S.; Zhou, Y.; Leite, P. A.; Wilcox, B. P.

2015-12-01

Groundwater in South Texas is heavily relied on for human consumption and irrigation for food crops. Like most of the south west US, woody encroachment has altered the grassland ecosystems here too. While brush removal has been widely implemented in Texas with the objective of increasing groundwater recharge, the linkage between vegetation and groundwater recharge in South Texas is still unclear. Studies have been conducted to understand plant-root-water dynamics at the scale of plants. However, little work has been done to quantify the changes in soil water and deep percolation at the landscape scale. Modeling water flow through soil profiles can provide an estimate of the total water flowing into deep percolation. These models are especially powerful with parameterized and calibrated with long term soil water data. In this study we parameterize the HYDRUS soil water model using long term soil water data collected in Jim Wells County in South Texas. Soil water was measured at every 20 cm intervals up to a depth of 200 cm. The parameterized model will be used to simulate soil water dynamics under a variety of precipitation regimes ranging from well above normal to severe drought conditions. The results from the model will be compared with the changes in soil moisture profile observed in response to vegetation cover and treatments from a study in a similar. Comparative studies like this can be used to build new and strengthen existing hypotheses regarding deep percolation and the role of soil texture and vegetation in groundwater recharge.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Water Temperatures Across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, N.; Knouft, J.; Ficklin, D. L.

2017-12-01

Analyses of long-term observation data have revealed significant changes in several components of climate and the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States during the twentieth and early twenty-first century. Mean surface air temperatures have significantly increased in most areas of the country. In addition, water temperatures are increasing in many watersheds across the United States. While there are numerous studies assessing the impact of climate change on air temperatures at regional and global scales, fewer studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on stream water temperatures. Projecting increases in water temperature are particularly important to the conservation of freshwater ecosystems. To achieve better insights into attributes regulating population and community dynamics of aquatic biota at large spatial and temporal scales, we need to establish relationships between environmental heterogeneity and critical biological processes of stream ecosystems at these scales. Increases in stream temperatures caused by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may result in a significant loss of fish habitat in the United States. Utilization of physically based hydrological-water temperature models is computationally demanding and can be onerous to many researchers who specialize in other disciplines. Using statistical techniques to analyze observational data from 1760 USGS stream temperature gages, our goal is to develop a simple yet accurate method to quantify the impacts of climate warming on stream water temperatures in a way that is practical for aquatic biologists, water and environmental management purposes, and conservation practitioners and policy-makers. Using an ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs), we estimate the potential impacts of climate change on stream temperatures within the contiguous United States based on recent trends. Stream temperatures are projected to increase across the US, but the magnitude of the

Dissemination and implementation: INQRI's potential impact.

PubMed

Titler, Marita G; Wilson, Deleise S; Resnick, Barbara; Shever, Leah L

2013-04-01

Application of research evidence in care delivery improves patient outcomes. Large gaps still exist, however, between recommended care and that used in practice. To increase the understanding of implementation studies, and dissemination of research findings, we present the perspective of investigators from seven Interdisciplinary Nursing Quality Research Initiative (INQRI)-funded studies. To describe implementation strategies, challenges, and lessons learned from conducting 5 INQRI-funded implementation studies, and present 2 case examples of other INQRI studies to illustrate dissemination strategies. Potential impact of study findings are set forth. Qualitative descriptive methods were used for the implementation studies. Case examples were set forth by investigators using reflection questions. Four of the 5 implementation studies focused on clinical topics and 1 on professional development of nurse managers, 4 were multisite studies. Common implementation strategies used across studies addressed education, ongoing interaction with sites, use of implementation tools, and visibility of the projects on the study units. Major challenges were the Institutional Review Board approval process and the short length of time allocated for implementation. Successes and lessons learned included creating excitement about research, packaging of study tools and resources for use by other organizations, and understanding the importance of context when conducting this type of research. Case examples revealed that study findings have been disseminated to study sites and to the health care community through publications and presentations. The potential impact of all 7 studies is far reaching. This study captures several nuanced perspectives from 5 Principal Investigators, who were completing INQRI-funded implementation studies. These nuanced perspectives are important lessons for other scientists embarking on implementation studies. The INQRI case examples illustrate important

Quantifying potential propagule pressure of aquatic invasive species from the commercial shipping industry in Canada.

PubMed

Lo, Veronica B; Levings, Colin D; Chan, Kai M A

2012-02-01

We quantify and compare different measures of potential propagule pressure (PPP) of aquatic invasive species (AIS) from commercial vessels in Canada. We used ship arrivals and ballast water discharge volumes as proxies for PPP from ballast water organisms, and wetted surface area (WSA) as a proxy for hull fouling PPP, to determine their relative contributions to total PPP. For three regions studied, PPP proxies correlated significantly across ports and some vessel categories. Relative contributions of ship arrivals, ballast discharge, and WSAs to PPP, evidenced by non-significant correlations across these measures, varied across regions, ports, vessel types, and seasons. Flow-through (dominant on east and west coasts) and empty-refill (in Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region) were the major ballast water exchange methods employed by the vessels surveyed. These methods have different biological efficacy for AIS removal, influencing PPP. Our study illustrates benefits and limitations of using different PPP proxies to estimate invasion risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of head impacts during sub-elite hurling practice sessions.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, D; Roe, M; Blake, C

2018-06-01

The reported incidence of head and neck injuries in hurling is 0.12 per 1000 hours, but no previous research has quantified head impact characteristics in this sport. Here, a wireless accelerometer and gyroscope captured head impacts, in 20 senior club level hurling players. Peak linear and rotational acceleration and impact location were recorded during three hurling training sessions, each player participating once. A mean of 27.9 impacts (linear acceleration >10g) per player, per session were recorded; 1314 impacts during a total exposure time of 247 minutes. Only 2.6% impacts had peak linear acceleration of >70g and 6.2% had peak rotational acceleration >7900 rad/s 2 . There were significant differences in the number and magnitude of impacts, quantified by the accelerometer, between three training sessions of differing intensity (ŋ2 0.03-0.09, p < 0.001). This study represents a first step in quantifying head impacts during hurling, demonstrating the feasibility of this technology in the field. The sensors were able to discriminate between sessions of varying intensity. These data can be used to develop athlete monitoring protocols and may be useful in developing innovative helmet-testing standards for hurling. The potential for this technology to provide feedback has clinical utility for team medical personnel.

Quantifying the benefit of wellbore leakage potential estimates for prioritizing long-term MVA well sampling at a CO2 storage site.

PubMed

Azzolina, Nicholas A; Small, Mitchell J; Nakles, David V; Glazewski, Kyle A; Peck, Wesley D; Gorecki, Charles D; Bromhal, Grant S; Dilmore, Robert M

2015-01-20

This work uses probabilistic methods to simulate a hypothetical geologic CO2 storage site in a depleted oil and gas field, where the large number of legacy wells would make it cost-prohibitive to sample all wells for all measurements as part of the postinjection site care. Deep well leakage potential scores were assigned to the wells using a random subsample of 100 wells from a detailed study of 826 legacy wells that penetrate the basal Cambrian formation on the U.S. side of the U.S./Canadian border. Analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations were used to quantify the statistical power of selecting a leaking well. Power curves were developed as a function of (1) the number of leaking wells within the Area of Review; (2) the sampling design (random or judgmental, choosing first the wells with the highest deep leakage potential scores); (3) the number of wells included in the monitoring sampling plan; and (4) the relationship between a well’s leakage potential score and its relative probability of leakage. Cases where the deep well leakage potential scores are fully or partially informative of the relative leakage probability are compared to a noninformative base case in which leakage is equiprobable across all wells in the Area of Review. The results show that accurate prior knowledge about the probability of well leakage adds measurable value to the ability to detect a leaking well during the monitoring program, and that the loss in detection ability due to imperfect knowledge of the leakage probability can be quantified. This work underscores the importance of a data-driven, risk-based monitoring program that incorporates uncertainty quantification into long-term monitoring sampling plans at geologic CO2 storage sites.

Quantifying Urban Texture in Nairobi, Kenya and its Implications for Understanding Natural Hazard Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Faith E.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Millington, James D. A.

2016-04-01

The configuration of infrastructure networks such as roads, drainage and power lines can both affect and be affected by natural hazards such as earthquakes, intense rain, wildfires and extreme temperatures. In this paper, we present and compare two methods to quantify urban topology on approximate scales of 0.0005 km2 to 10 km2 and create classifications of different 'urban textures' that relate to risk of natural hazard impact in an area. The methods we use focus on applicability in urban developing country settings, where access to high resolution and high quality data may be difficult. We use the city of Nairobi, Kenya to trial these methods. Nairobi has a population >3 million, and is a mix of informal settlements, residential and commercial development. The city and its immediate surroundings are subject to a variety of natural hazards such as floods, landslides, fires, drought, hail, heavy wind and extreme temperatures; all of these hazards can occur singly, but also have the potential for one to trigger another, thus providing a 'cascade' of hazards, or for two of the hazards to occur spatially and temporally near each other and interact. We use two measures of urban texture: (i) Street block textures, (ii) Google Earth land cover textures. Street block textures builds on the methodology of Louf and Barthelemy (2014) and uses Open Street Map data to analyse the shape, size, complexity and pattern of individual blocks of land created by fully enclosed loops of the major and minor road network of Nairobi. We find >4000 of these blocks ranging in size from approximately 0.0005 km2 to 10 km2, with approximately 5 classifications of urban texture. Google Earth land cover texture is a visual classification of homogeneous parcels of land performed in Google Earth using high-resolution airborne imagery and a qualitative criteria for each land cover type. Using the Google Earth land cover texture method, we identify >40 'urban textures' based on visual

The Social Impact of Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.

2013-12-01

Managing climate change requires that we understand the social value of climate-related decisions. Rational decision-making demands that we weigh the potential benefits of climate-related investments against their costs. To date, it has been challenging to quantify the relative social benefit of living under different climatic conditions, so policy debates tend to focus on investment costs without considering their benefits. Here I will discuss challenges and advances in the measurement of climate's impact on society. By linking data and methods across physical and social sciences, we are beginning to understand when, where, and how climatic conditions have a causal impact on human wellbeing. I will present examples from this burgeoning interdisciplinary field that quantify the effect of temperature on macroeconomic performance, the effects of climate on human conflict, and the long-term health and economic impact of tropical cyclones. Each of these examples provide new insight into previously unknown benefits of various climate management strategies. I conclude by describing new efforts to systematically gather and compare findings from across the research community to support informed and rational climate management decisions.

Dangerous Climate Velocities from Geoengineering Termination: Potential Biodiversity Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trisos, C.; Gurevitch, J.; Zambri, B.; Xia, L.; Amatulli, G.; Robock, A.

2016-12-01

Geoengineering has been suggested as a potential societal response to the impacts of ongoing global warming. If ongoing mitigation and adaptation measures do not prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change, it is important to study whether solar radiation management would make the world less dangerous. While impacts of albedo modification on temperature, precipitation, and agriculture have been studied before, here for the first time we investigate its potential ecological impacts. We estimate the speeds marine and terrestrial ecosystems will need to move to remain in their current climate conditions (i.e., climate velocities) in response to the implementation and subsequent termination of geoengineering. We take advantage of climate model simulations conducted using the G4 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which increased radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 scenario is balanced by a stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by an injection of 5 Tg of SO2 per year into the lower stratosphere for 50 years, and then stopped. The termination of geoengineering is projected to produce a very rapid warming of the climate, resulting in climate velocities much faster than those that will be produced from anthropogenic global warming. Should ongoing geoengineering be terminated abruptly due to society losing the means or will to continue, the resulting ecological impacts, as measured by climate velocities, could be severe for many terrestrial and marine biodiversity hotspots. Thus, the implementation of solar geoengineering represents a potential danger not just to humans, but also to biodiversity globally.

Health Impact Assessment for Second-Hand Smoke Exposure in Germany--Quantifying Estimates for Ischaemic Heart Diseases, COPD, and Stroke.

PubMed

Fischer, Florian; Kraemer, Alexander

2016-02-05

Evidence of the adverse health effects attributable to second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure is available. This study aims to quantify the impact of SHS exposure on ischaemic heart diseases (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), and stroke in Germany. Therefore, this study estimated and forecasted the morbidity for the three outcomes in the German population. Furthermore, a health impact assessment was performed using DYNAMO-HIA, which is a generic software tool applying a Markov model. Overall 687,254 IHD cases, 231,973 COPD cases, and 288,015 stroke cases were estimated to be attributable to SHS exposure in Germany for 2014. Under the assumption that the population prevalence of these diseases and the prevalence of SHS exposure remain constant, the total number of cases will increase due to demographic aging. Assuming a total eradication of SHS exposure beginning in 2014 leads to an estimated reduction of 50% in cases, compared to the reference scenario in 2040 for all three diseases. The results highlight the relevance of SHS exposure because it affects several chronic disease conditions and has a major impact on the population's health. Therefore, public health campaigns to protect non-smokers are urgently needed.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Hart, Andy; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Owen, Helen; Kennedy, Marc; Zeilmaker, Marco J; de Jong, Nynke; Gunnlaugsdottir, Helga

2013-04-01

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Exploring the Potential Impact of Greenland Meltwater on Stratification, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, and Primary Production in the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Hilde; Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; van Dijken, Gert L.; Mattingly, Kyle S.; Rosen, Joshua J.; Mote, Thomas L.; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Yager, Patricia L.

2018-04-01

In July 2012, the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melted to an extent unprecedented over the last 100 years; we questioned the potential for such an extreme melt event to impact marine phytoplankton offshore. We hypothesized that stratification from meltwater could reduce light limitation for phytoplankton, and used a suite of numerical models to quantify the impact for 2003-2012. Because much of the 2012 meltwater discharged from southern Greenland, our study focused on the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Greenland, and the Labrador Sea. A 1-D phytoplankton model used output from a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled with a Regional Climate Model and a hydrological model of meltwater from runoff sources on the ice sheet, peripheral glaciers, and tundra. ROMS was run with and without meltwater to test the sensitivity of phytoplankton photosynthetic rates to the meltwater input. With meltwater, the pycnocline was shallower during late summer and early fall and thus light limitation on photosynthesis was reduced. Averaged over all years, added meltwater had the potential to increase gross primary production by 3-12% in the summer (July-August), and 13-60% in the fall (September-October). This meltwater effect was amplified when light was more limiting, and thus was greatest in the fall, under cloudier conditions, with higher self-shading, and with more light-sensitive phytoplankton groups. As the GrIS melt is projected to increase, late summer primary production in this region has the potential to increase as well, which could constitute an important biosphere response to high-latitude climate change.

Potential impact of seawater uranium extraction on marine life

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Jiyeon; Jeters, Robert T.; Kuo, Li-Jung

A variety of adsorbent materials have been developed to extract uranium from seawater as an alternative traditional terrestrial mining. A large-scale deployment of these adsorbents would be necessary to recover useful quantities of uranium and this raises a number of concerns regarding potential impacts on the surrounding marine environment. Two concerns are whether or not the adsorbent materials are toxic and any potentially harmful effects that may result from depleting uranium or vanadium (also highly concentrated by the adsorbents) from the local environment. To test the potential toxicity of the adsorbent with or without bound metals, Microtox assays were usedmore » to test both direct contact toxicity and the toxicity of any leachate in the seawater. The Microtox assay was chosen because it the detection of non-specific mechanisms of toxicity. Toxicity was not observed with leachates from any of 68 adsorbent materials that were tested, but direct contact with some adsorbents at very high adsorbent con-centrations exhibited toxicity. These concentrations are, however, very unlikely to be seen in the actual marine deployment. Adsor-bents that accumulated uranium and trace metals were also tested for toxicity, and no toxic effect was observed. Biofouling on the adsorbents and in columns or flumes containing the adsorbents also indicates that the adsorbents are not toxic and that there may not be an obvious deleterious effect resulting from removing uranium and vanadium from seawater. An extensive literature search was also performed to examine the potential impact of uranium and vanadium extraction from seawater on marine life using the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL’s) document analysis tool, IN-SPIRE™. Although other potential environmental effects must also be considered, results from both the Microtox assay and the literature search provide preliminary evidence that uranium extraction from seawater could be performed with minimal

Comprehensive analysis of individual pulp fiber bonds quantifies the mechanisms of fiber bonding in paper

PubMed Central

Hirn, Ulrich; Schennach, Robert

2015-01-01

The process of papermaking requires substantial amounts of energy and wood consumption, which contributes to larger environmental costs. In order to optimize the production of papermaking to suit its many applications in material science and engineering, a quantitative understanding of bonding forces between the individual pulp fibers is of importance. Here we show the first approach to quantify the bonding energies contributed by the individual bonding mechanisms. We calculated the impact of the following mechanisms necessary for paper formation: mechanical interlocking, interdiffusion, capillary bridges, hydrogen bonding, Van der Waals forces, and Coulomb forces on the bonding energy. Experimental results quantify the area in molecular contact necessary for bonding. Atomic force microscopy experiments derive the impact of mechanical interlocking. Capillary bridges also contribute to the bond. A model based on the crystal structure of cellulose leads to values for the chemical bonds. In contrast to general believe which favors hydrogen bonding Van der Waals bonds play the most important role according to our model. Comparison with experimentally derived bond energies support the presented model. This study characterizes bond formation between pulp fibers leading to insight that could be potentially used to optimize the papermaking process, while reducing energy and wood consumption. PMID:26000898

Global Climate Change and NEPA: The Difficulty with Cumulative Impacts Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-18

This paper will provide a survey of the current requirements under the law for addressing global climate change in NEPA documents, along with various...methodologies for quantifying the potential global climate change impacts of federal actions subject to NEPA.

Quantifying Impacts of Urban Growth Potential on Army Training Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-12

Capacity” ERDC/CERL TR-17-34 ii Abstract Building on previous studies of urban growth and population effects on U.S. military installations and...combat team studies . CAA has developed an iterative process that builds on Military Value Anal- ysis (MVA) models that include a set of attributes that...Methods and tools were developed to support a nationwide analysis. This study focused on installations operating training areas that were high

Quantifying Security Threats and Their Potential Impacts: A Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T

In earlier works, we present a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we illustrate this infrastructure by means of an e-commerce application.

Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This assessment provides a review and synthesis of available scientific literature and data to assess the potential for hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas to impact the quality or quantity of drinking water resources, and identifies factors affecting the frequency or severity of any potential impacts. The scope of this assessment is defined by the hydraulic fracturing water cycle which includes five main activities: Water acquisition – the withdrawal of ground or surface water needed for hydraulic fracturing fluids;Chemical mixing – the mixing of water, chemicals, and proppant on the well pad to create the hydraulic fracturing fluid;Well injection – the injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids into the well to fracture the geologic formation; Flowback and Produced water – the return of injected fluid and water produced from the formation to the surface, and subsequent transport for reuse, treatment, or disposal; andWastewater treatment and waste disposal – the reuse, treatment and release, or disposal of wastewater generated at the well pad, including produced water. This report can be used by federal, tribal, state, and local officials; industry; and the public to better understand and address vulnerabilities of drinking water resources to hydraulic fracturing activities. To assess the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on drinking water resources, if any, and to identify the driving factors that may affect the severity and frequency of s

A modelling framework to evaluate human-induced alterations of network sediment connectivity and quantify their unplanned adverse impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizzi, S.; Schmitt, R. J. P.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-12-01

World-wide human-induced alterations of sediment transport, e.g. due to dams, sand and gravel mining along rivers and channel maintenance, translated into geomorphic changes, which have had major effects on ecosystem integrity, human livelihoods, ultimately negatively impacting also on the expected benefit from building water infrastructures. Despite considerable recent advances in modelling basin-scale hydrological and geomorphological processes, our ability to quantitatively simulate network sediment transport, foresee effects of alternative scenarios of human development on fluvial morpho-dynamics, and design anticipatory planning adaptation measures is still limited. In this work, we demonstrate the potential of a novel modelling framework called CASCADE (CAtchment SEdiment Connectivity And Delivery (Schmitt et al., 2016)) to characterize sediment connectivity at the whole river network scale, predict the disturbing effect of dams on the sediment transport, and quantify the associated loss with respect to the level of benefits that provided the economic justification for their development. CASCADE allows tracking the fate of a sediment from its source to its multiple sinks across the network. We present the results from two major, transboundary river systems (3S and Red River) in South-East Asia. We first discuss the ability of CASCADE to properly represent sediment connectivity at the network scale using available remote sensing data and information from monitoring networks. Secondly, we assess the impacts on sediment connectivity induced by existing and planned dams in the 3S and Red River basins and compare these alterations with revenues in terms of hydropower production. CASCADE outputs support a broader understanding of sediment connectivity tailored for water management issues not yet available, and it is suitable to enrich assessments of food-energy-water nexus. The model framework can be embedded into the design of optimal siting and sizing of water

Evaluating wilderness recreational opportunities: application of an impact matrix

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Parsons, David J.

1992-01-01

An inventory of the severity and spatial distribution of wilderness campsite impacts in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks identified a total of 273 distinct nodes of campsites or “management areas.” A campsite impact matrix was developed to evaluate management areas based on total impacts (correlated to the total area of campsite development) and the density, or concentration, of impacts relative to each area's potentially campable area. The matrix is used to quantify potential recreational opportunities for wilderness visitors in a spectrum from areas offering low impact-dispersed camping to those areas offering high impact-concentrated camping. Wilderness managers can use this type of information to evaluate use distribution patterns, identify areas to increase or decrease use, and to identify areas needing site-specific regulations (e.g., one-night camping limits) to preserve wilderness resources and guarantee outstanding opportunities for solitude.

Quantifying downstream impacts of impoundment on flow regime and channel planform, lower Trinity River, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellmeyer, Jessica L.; Slattery, Michael C.; Phillips, Jonathan D.

2005-07-01

As human population worldwide has grown, so has interest in harnessing and manipulating the flow of water for the benefit of humans. The Trinity River of eastern Texas is one such watershed greatly impacted by engineering and urbanization. Draining the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, just under 30 reservoirs are in operation in the basin, regulating flow while containing public supplies, supporting recreation, and providing flood control. Lake Livingston is the lowest, as well as largest, reservoir in the basin, a mere 95 km above the Trinity's outlet near Galveston Bay. This study seeks to describe and quantify channel activity and flow regime, identifying effects of the 1968 closure of Livingston dam. Using historic daily and peak discharge data from USGS gauging stations, flow duration curves are constructed, identifying pre- and post-dam flow conditions. A digital historic photo archive was also constructed using six sets of aerial photographs spanning from 1938 to 1995, and three measures of channel activity applied using a GIS. Results show no changes in high flow conditions following impoundment, while low flows are elevated. However, the entire post-dam period is characterized by significantly higher rainfall, which may be obscuring the full impact of flow regulation. Channel activity rates do not indicate a more stabilized planform following dam closure; rather they suggest that the Trinity River is adjusting itself to the stress of Livingston dam in a slow, gradual process that may not be apparent in a modern time scale.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Treesearch

Raymond G. Najjar; Christopher R. Pyke; Mary Beth Adams; Denise Breitburg; Carl Hershner; Michael Kemp; Robert Howarth; Margaret R. Mulholland; Michael Paolisso; David Secor; Kevin Sellner; Denice Wardrop; Robert Wood

2010-01-01

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations,...

Propagation-of-uncertainty from contact angle and streaming potential measurements to XDLVO model assessments of membrane-colloid interactions.

PubMed

Muthu, Satish; Childress, Amy; Brant, Jonathan

2014-08-15

Membrane fouling assessed from a fundamental standpoint within the context of the Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) model. The DLVO model requires that the properties of the membrane and foulant(s) be quantified. Membrane surface charge (zeta potential) and free energy values are characterized using streaming potential and contact angle measurements, respectively. Comparing theoretical assessments for membrane-colloid interactions between research groups requires that the variability of the measured inputs be established. The impact that such variability in input values on the outcome from interfacial models must be quantified to determine an acceptable variance in inputs. An interlaboratory study was conducted to quantify the variability in streaming potential and contact angle measurements when using standard protocols. The propagation of uncertainty from these errors was evaluated in terms of their impact on the quantitative and qualitative conclusions on extended DLVO (XDLVO) calculated interaction terms. The error introduced into XDLVO calculated values was of the same magnitude as the calculated free energy values at contact and at any given separation distance. For two independent laboratories to draw similar quantitative conclusions regarding membrane-foulant interfacial interactions the standard error in contact angle values must be⩽2.5°, while that for the zeta potential values must be⩽7 mV. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying non-recurring delay on New York City's arterial highways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

This research project was undertaken for NYSDOT to provide a better understanding of the impacts of traffic incidents/accident s on traffic delays on New York Citys Arterial Highways, and to better quantify and predict non-recurring traffic delay ...

Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Di; Wang, Jing; Dai, Tong; Feng, Liping; Zhang, Jianping; Pan, Xuebiao; Pan, Zhihua

2014-12-01

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade ( p < 0.01) across SWC. The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province. Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day-1 per decade ( p < 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC. Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha-1 per decade ( p < 0.05). Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased ( p < 0.05) in the northeast of SWC, whereas they increased ( p < 0.05) in the southwest of SWC. The gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Psychological distress as a factor in environmental impact assessment: Some methods and ideas for quantifying this intangible intangible

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egna, H.S.

1995-03-01

A case study describing citizens` contentions that restarting Three Mile Island`s nuclear reactor (TMI-1) would cause psychological distress provides historical and legislative impetus for federal agencies to consider psycho-social dimensions in their environmental impact statements (EISs). Although the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rejected citizens` complaints on the grounds that distress is not easily quantifiable, experts associated with the case noted that the NRC`s contention was not entirely valid and that the National Environmental Protection Act missed a golden opportunity to promote the development of methodology and models for incorporating psychosocial factors into the EIS. This study describes some of themore » methods that have subsequently been used for measuring distress in the context of technological hazards.« less

Sequential assimilation of volcanic monitoring data to quantify eruption potential: Application to Kerinci volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yan; Gregg, Patricia M.; Chaussard, Estelle; Aoki, Yosuke

2017-12-01

Quantifying the eruption potential of a restless volcano requires the ability to model parameters such as overpressure and calculate the host rock stress state as the system evolves. A critical challenge is developing a model-data fusion framework to take advantage of observational data and provide updates of the volcanic system through time. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) uses a Monte Carlo approach to assimilate volcanic monitoring data and update models of volcanic unrest, providing time-varying estimates of overpressure and stress. Although the EnKF has been proven effective to forecast volcanic deformation using synthetic InSAR and GPS data, until now, it has not been applied to assimilate data from an active volcanic system. In this investigation, the EnKF is used to provide a “hindcast” of the 2009 explosive eruption of Kerinci volcano, Indonesia. A two-sources analytical model is used to simulate the surface deformation of Kerinci volcano observed by InSAR time-series data and to predict the system evolution. A deep, deflating dike-like source reproduces the subsiding signal on the flanks of the volcano, and a shallow spherical McTigue source reproduces the central uplift. EnKF predicted parameters are used in finite element models to calculate the host-rock stress state prior to the 2009 eruption. Mohr-Coulomb failure models reveal that the shallow magma reservoir is trending towards tensile failure prior to 2009, which may be the catalyst for the 2009 eruption. Our results illustrate that the EnKF shows significant promise for future applications to forecasting the eruption potential of restless volcanoes and hind-cast the triggering mechanisms of observed eruptions.

Quantifying the impact of Wellington Zoo's persuasive communication campaign on post-visit behavior.

PubMed

MacDonald, Edith

2015-01-01

Zoos potential to facilitate visitor conservation behavior is commonly articulated. Few studies, however, have quantified whether zoos' conservation messages result in visitors implementing the behavior. To test if zoo conservation messages are adopted at home, I implemented a persuasive communication campaign which advocated keeping cats indoor at night, a behavior that is a potential solution to cats depredating native wildlife. Furthermore, I tested if a public commitment (signing a pledge card) strengthened the relationship between on-site intention to engage in the behavior and actual implementation of the behavior at home. The conservation behavior was included in the twice-daily animal presentations in the amphitheater. A sample of 691 visitors completed a survey as they exited the amphitheater that measured their recall of the conservation behavior and intention to engage in the behavior at home. The last 311 visitors to complete the survey were asked to sign a pledge card which was publicly displayed in the amphitheater. Six weeks after their zoo trip, visitors were contacted and asked if they had implemented the behavior. Recall of the conservation behavior was high (91% for control, 100% for pledge group) and the entire pledge group had implemented the behavior whereas just half (51%) of the control group did. Furthermore, signing the pledge card strengthened the relationship between onsite intention and at home behavior (r = 1.0 of for the pledge group and r = 0.21 for the control group). Overall, the zoo's conservation message was recalled and behavior implemented at home. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genetic Evidence Highlights Potential Impacts of By-Catch to Cetaceans

PubMed Central

Mendez, Martin; Rosenbaum, Howard C.; Wells, Randall S.; Stamper, Andrew; Bordino, Pablo

2010-01-01

Incidental entanglement in fishing gear is arguably the most serious threat to many populations of small cetaceans, judging by the alarming number of captured animals. However, other aspects of this threat, such as the potential capture of mother-offspring pairs or reproductive pairs, could be equally or even more significant but have rarely been evaluated. Using a combination of demographic and genetic data we provide evidence that i) Franciscana dolphin pairs that are potentially reproductive and mother-offspring pairs form temporal bonds, and ii) are entangled simultaneously. Our results highlight potential demographic and genetic impacts of by-catch to cetacean populations: the joint entanglement of mother-offspring or reproductive pairs, compared to random individuals, might exacerbate the demographic consequences of by-catch, and the loss of groups of relatives means that significant components of genetic diversity could be lost together. Given the social nature of many odontocetes (toothed cetaceans), we suggest that these potential impacts could be rather general to the group and therefore by-catch could be more detrimental than previously considered. PMID:21179542

Quantifying trail erosion and stream sedimentation with sediment tracers

Treesearch

Mark S. Riedel

2006-01-01

Abstract--The impacts of forest disturbance and roads on stream sedimentation have been rigorously investigated and documented. While historical research on turbidity and suspended sediments has been thorough, studies of stream bed sedimentation have typically relied on semi-quantitative measures such as embeddedness or marginal pool depth. To directly quantify the...

Impacts of social indicators on assessing the recovery potential of impaired watersheds.

PubMed

Sinshaw, Tadesse A; Surbeck, Cristiane Q

2018-05-09

An analysis was carried out to understand how watersheds' potential for restoration was impacted by social indicators. This study employed the USEPA Recovery Potential Screening tool, a decision support system, to compare 51 watersheds in the state of Mississippi, USA, using ecological, stressor, and social indices, and the recovery potential integrated (RPI) index. An in-depth analysis was performed on four watersheds in the Delta region of Mississippi (Lake Washington, Harris Bayou, Steele Bayou, and Coldwater River), each impaired by sediments and nutrients. Sixteen social indicators were categorized into three subcategories: Socio-Economic, Organizational, and Informational. Watersheds with lower social indices had lower RPI scores. In the particular watersheds studied, the Socio-Economic subcategory was observed to be the most impactful to the overall recovery potential when compared to the other two social subcategories. As a sensitivity analysis, a "what if" simulation was performed to explore alternatives to upgrade a watershed's social index and, consequently, the relative recovery potential of the watershed to a target level. This analysis is useful for understanding how particular social indicators of a community impact the relative potential for recovering a watershed, beyond just the ecological and stressor conditions. It also sheds light on assessing which social indicators can be improved. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oughton, Edward J.; Skelton, Andrew; Horne, Richard B.; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Gaunt, Charles T.

2017-01-01

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional events.

Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets is an update to a previous Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets, released in December 2011. This update analyzes possible market responses and impacts in the event Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery closes this summer, in addition to the recently idled refineries on the East Coast and in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Comparing the Ecological Impacts of Wind and Oil & Gas Development: A Landscape Scale Assessment

PubMed Central

Jones, Nathan F.; Pejchar, Liba

2013-01-01

Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society’s demand for energy. PMID:24312296

Comparing the ecological impacts of wind and oil & gas development: a landscape scale assessment.

PubMed

Jones, Nathan F; Pejchar, Liba

2013-01-01

Energy production in the United States is in transition as the demand for clean and domestic power increases. Wind energy offers the benefit of reduced emissions, yet, like oil and natural gas, it also contributes to energy sprawl. We used a diverse set of indicators to quantify the ecological impacts of oil, natural gas, and wind energy development in Colorado and Wyoming. Aerial imagery was supplemented with empirical data to estimate habitat loss, fragmentation, potential for wildlife mortality, susceptibility to invasion, biomass carbon lost, and water resources. To quantify these impacts we digitized the land-use footprint within 375 plots, stratified by energy type. We quantified the change in impacts per unit area and per unit energy produced, compared wind energy to oil and gas, and compared landscapes with and without energy development. We found substantial differences in impacts between energy types for most indicators, although the magnitude and direction of the differences varied. Oil and gas generally resulted in greater impacts per unit area but fewer impacts per unit energy compared with wind. Biologically important and policy-relevant outcomes of this study include: 1) regardless of energy type, underlying land-use matters and development in already disturbed areas resulted in fewer total impacts; 2) the number and source of potential mortality varied between energy types, however, the lack of robust mortality data limits our ability to use this information to estimate and mitigate impacts; and 3) per unit energy produced, oil and gas extraction was less impactful on an annual basis but is likely to have a much larger cumulative footprint than wind energy over time. This rapid evaluation of landscape-scale energy development impacts could be replicated in other regions, and our specific findings can help meet the challenge of balancing land conservation with society's demand for energy.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

PubMed Central

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

PubMed

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

Quantifying the Impacts of Droughts on the Electricity Sector and its Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the American West

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Sheffield, J.

2016-12-01

The electricity sector relies heavily on water, as it is needed for hydroelectric generation and to cool thermoelectric power plants. Droughts decrease river and reservoir levels, reducing the affected region's capacity for electricity generation. These cuts in electricity supply have to be replaced by more expensive alternatives with potentially higher associated greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. coal, natural gas, or imports) to meet the region's demand. To date, the quantification of the impacts of droughts on the electricity sector tends to be restricted to individual events, such as the recent California drought. In this work, the impacts of droughts on electricity prices paid by consumers and on greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector are calculated over the American West from 2001 to 2014 using monthly data. This region was selected because it falls within the Western Interconnection power grid, because of its important reliance on hydropower, and because it has large areas that are vulnerable to droughts due to their semi-arid climates. Furthermore, this regional approach allows us to quantify the effects of non-local droughts, i.e. droughts in neighboring states that affect electricity imports into a given state. Results show large heterogeneities in the effects of droughts across the region, given the diversity of energy sources used in each state. As expected, the effect of a local drought event on hydroelectricity is largest in California, Oregon, and Washington since they have the highest hydropower capacity. California and Oregon tend to replace a large portion of their lost hydroelectricity with natural gas, while Washington appears to rely more on imports from its neighbors. On the other hand, Montana, Nevada, and Utah, tend to rely more heavily on coal. The results also show that consumers in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors may sometimes pay millions of dollars more for their electricity use at the state level due to

Identifying the Potential Organizational Impact of an Educational Peer Review Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toth, Kate E.; McKey, Colleen A.

2010-01-01

The literature on educational peer review (EPR) has focused on evaluating EPR's impact on faculty and/or student learning outcomes; no literature exists on the potential organizational impact. A qualitative (case study) research design explored perceptions of 17 faculty and 10 administrators within a school of nursing in an Ontario university…

A Sensitivity-Based Approach to Quantifying the Costs of Weather and Climate Impacts: A Case Study of the Southern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Adaptation Pilot Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casola, J.; Johanson, E.; Groth, P.; Snow, C.; Choate, A.

2012-12-01

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), with support from the Federal Transit Administration, has been investigating its agency's vulnerability to weather-related disruption and damages as a way to inform an overall adaptation strategy for climate variability and change. Exploiting daily rail service records maintained by SEPTA and observations from nearby weather stations, we have developed a methodology for quantifying the sensitivity of SEPTA's Manayunk/Norristown rail line to various weather events (e.g., snow storms, heat waves, heavy rainfall and flooding, tropical storms). For each type of event, sensitivity is equated to the frequency and extent of service disruptions associated with the event, and includes the identification of thresholds beyond which impacts are observed. In addition, we have estimated the monetary costs associated with repair and replacement of infrastructure following these events. Our results have facilitated discussions with SEPTA operational staff, who have outlined the institutional aspects of their preparation and response processes for these weather events. We envision the methodology as being useful for resource and infrastructure managers across the public and private sector, and potentially scalable to smaller or larger operations. There are several advantageous aspects of the method: 1) the quantification of sensitivity, and the coupling of that sensitivity to cost information, provides credible input to SEPTA decision-makers as they establish the priorities and level of investment associated with their adaptation actions for addressing extreme weather; 2) the method provides a conceptual foundation for estimating the magnitude, frequency, and costs of potential future impacts at a local scale, especially with regard to heat waves; 3) the sensitivity information serves as an excellent discussion tool, enabling further research and information gathering about institutional relationships and procedures. These

78 FR 68028 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-13

... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the proposed Fiscal Year 2015 National Defense...

76 FR 58463 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... Stockpile Market Impact Committee (MIC), co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the proposed disposal levels of materials for the...

75 FR 54852 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-09

... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the proposed disposal levels of excess materials for the Fiscal...

Potential impact of air quality restrictions on logging residue burning

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer; James N. Westwood

1970-01-01

The number of potential burning days and the potential burn acreage under smoke control restrictions were estimated for hypothetical forest areas on both sides of a pollution prone area, the Willamette Valley in western Oregon. On the basis of a sample of 2 dry years, the greatest impact on burning operations applied to low elevation forests west of the Valley. The...

A Mixed-Method Approach for Quantifying Illegal Fishing and Its Impact on an Endangered Fish Species.

PubMed

Free, Christopher M; Jensen, Olaf P; Mendsaikhan, Bud

2015-01-01

Illegal harvest is recognized as a widespread problem in natural resource management. The use of multiple methods for quantifying illegal harvest has been widely recommended yet infrequently applied. We used a mixed-method approach to evaluate the extent, character, and motivations of illegal gillnet fishing in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia and its impact on the lake's fish populations, especially that of the endangered endemic Hovsgol grayling (Thymallus nigrescens). Surveys for derelict fishing gear indicate that gillnet fishing is widespread and increasing and that fishers generally use 3-4 cm mesh gillnet. Interviews with resident herders and park rangers suggest that many residents fish for subsistence during the spring grayling spawning migration and that some residents fish commercially year-round. Interviewed herders and rangers generally agree that fish population sizes are decreasing but are divided on the causes and solutions. Biological monitoring indicates that the gillnet mesh sizes used by fishers efficiently target Hovsgol grayling. Of the five species sampled in the monitoring program, only burbot (Lota lota) showed a significant decrease in population abundance from 2009-2013. However, grayling, burbot, and roach (Rutilus rutilus) all showed significant declines in average body size, suggesting a negative fishing impact. Data-poor stock assessment methods suggest that the fishing effort equivalent to each resident family fishing 50-m of gillnet 11-15 nights per year would be sufficient to overexploit the grayling population. Results from the derelict fishing gear survey and interviews suggest that this level of effort is not implausible. Overall, we demonstrate the ability for a mixed-method approach to effectively describe an illegal fishery and suggest that these methods be used to assess illegal fishing and its impacts in other protected areas.

A Mixed-Method Approach for Quantifying Illegal Fishing and Its Impact on an Endangered Fish Species

PubMed Central

Free, Christopher M.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Mendsaikhan, Bud

2015-01-01

Illegal harvest is recognized as a widespread problem in natural resource management. The use of multiple methods for quantifying illegal harvest has been widely recommended yet infrequently applied. We used a mixed-method approach to evaluate the extent, character, and motivations of illegal gillnet fishing in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia and its impact on the lake’s fish populations, especially that of the endangered endemic Hovsgol grayling (Thymallus nigrescens). Surveys for derelict fishing gear indicate that gillnet fishing is widespread and increasing and that fishers generally use 3–4 cm mesh gillnet. Interviews with resident herders and park rangers suggest that many residents fish for subsistence during the spring grayling spawning migration and that some residents fish commercially year-round. Interviewed herders and rangers generally agree that fish population sizes are decreasing but are divided on the causes and solutions. Biological monitoring indicates that the gillnet mesh sizes used by fishers efficiently target Hovsgol grayling. Of the five species sampled in the monitoring program, only burbot (Lota lota) showed a significant decrease in population abundance from 2009–2013. However, grayling, burbot, and roach (Rutilus rutilus) all showed significant declines in average body size, suggesting a negative fishing impact. Data-poor stock assessment methods suggest that the fishing effort equivalent to each resident family fishing 50-m of gillnet 11–15 nights per year would be sufficient to overexploit the grayling population. Results from the derelict fishing gear survey and interviews suggest that this level of effort is not implausible. Overall, we demonstrate the ability for a mixed-method approach to effectively describe an illegal fishery and suggest that these methods be used to assess illegal fishing and its impacts in other protected areas. PMID:26625154

77 FR 16205 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-20

... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the proposed supplement to the Fiscal Year 2012...

77 FR 42271 - National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-18

... Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee Request for Public Comments on the Potential Market Impact of... National Defense Stockpile Market Impact Committee, co-chaired by the Departments of Commerce and State, is seeking public comments on the potential market impact of the proposed supplement to the Fiscal Year 2013...

Potential increases in natural disturbance rates could offset forest management impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, John B.; Jensen, Nicholas R.; Domke, Grant M.; D’Amato, Anthony W.

2013-01-01

Forested ecosystems contain the majority of the world’s terrestrial carbon, and forest management has implications for regional and global carbon cycling. Carbon stored in forests changes with stand age and is affected by natural disturbance and timber harvesting. We examined how harvesting and disturbance interact to influence forest carbon stocks over the Superior National Forest, in northern Minnesota. Forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program were used to characterize current forest age structure and quantify the relationship between age and carbon stocks for eight forest types. Using these findings, we simulated the impact of alternative management scenarios and natural disturbance rates on forest-wide terrestrial carbon stocks over a 100-year horizon. Under low natural mortality, forest-wide total ecosystem carbon stocks increased when 0% or 40% of planned harvests were implemented; however, the majority of forest-wide carbon stocks decreased with greater harvest levels and elevated disturbance rates. Our results suggest that natural disturbance has the potential to exert stronger influence on forest carbon stocks than timber harvesting activities and that maintaining carbon stocks over the long-term may prove difficult if disturbance frequency increases in response to climate change.

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan; Barbose, Galen

This is the third in a series of reports exploring the costs, benefits, and other impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS). This report evaluates the effects of renewable electricity used to meet aggregate RPS demand growth prospectively, over the period 2015-2050, under both current RPS policies as well as a potential expansion of those policies. Relying on a well-vetted suite of methods, the report quantifies: the costs to the electric system and retail electricity price impacts; the potential societal benefits associated with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution emissions, and water use; workforce requirements and economic development effects; andmore » consumer savings associated with reduced natural gas prices. The study quantifies these effects in both physical and monetary terms, where possible, at both national and regional levels, and characterizes key uncertainties. The two prior studies in the series have focused, instead, on the historical costs and on the historical benefits and impacts of state RPS policies.« less

Potential impact of high temperature superconductors on MAGLEV transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hull, J. R.

1992-02-01

This report describes the potential impact that high-temperature superconductors (HTS's) may have on transportation by magnetically levitated vehicles. It is not intended as a planning document, but rather as an overview of potential HTS applications to magnetic-levitation (maglev) transportation. The present maglev program in the United States is summarized, and the present status of development of HTS's is described. Areas identified for possible impact on maglev technology are: (1) liquid-nitrogen-cooled levitation magnets; (2) magnetic-field shielding of the passenger compartment; (3) superconducting magnetic energy storage for wayside power; (4) superconducting bearings for flywheel energy storage for wayside power; (5) downleads to continuously powered liquid-helium-cooled levitation magnets; and (6) liquid-hydrogen-cooled levitation magnets and linear motor propulsion windings. Major technical issues that remain to be resolved for the use of HTS's in maglev applications include thermal magnetic stability, mechanical properties, and critical current density at liquid-nitrogen temperatures.

Identifying potential environmental impacts of waste handling strategies in textile industry.

PubMed

Yacout, Dalia M M; Hassouna, M S

2016-08-01

Waste management is a successful instrument to minimize generated waste and improve environmental conditions. In spite of the large share of developing countries in the textile industry, limited information is available concerning the waste management strategies implemented for textiles on those countries and their environmental impacts. In the current study, two waste management approaches for hazardous solid waste treatment of acrylic fibers (landfill and incineration) were investigated. The main research questions were: What are the different impacts of each waste management strategy? Which waste management strategy is more ecofriendly? Life cycle assessment was employed in order to model the environmental impacts of each waste streaming approach separately then compare them together. Results revealed that incineration was the more ecofriendly approach. Highest impacts of both approaches were on ecotoxicity and carcinogenic potentials due to release of metals from pigment wastes. Landfill had an impact of 46.8 % on human health as compared to 28 % by incineration. Incineration impact on ecosystem quality was higher than landfill impact (68.4 and 51.3 %, respectively). As for resources category, incineration had a higher impact than landfill (3.5 and 2.0 %, respectively). Those impacts could be mitigated if state-of-the-art landfill or incinerator were used and could be reduced by applying waste to energy approaches for both management systems In conclusion, shifting waste treatment from landfill to incineration would decrease the overall environmental impacts and allow energy recovery. The potential of waste to energy approach by incineration with heat recovery could be considered in further studies. Future research is needed in order to assess the implementation of waste management systems and the preferable waste management strategies in the textile industry on developing countries.

Quantifying the Spatio-temporal Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Carbon Storage Using Repeat Lidar Surveys and Multispectral Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smart, L.; Taillie, P. J.; Smith, J. W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

2017-12-01

Sound coastal land-use policy and management decisions to mitigate or adapt to sea level rise impacts depend on understanding vegetation responses to sea level rise over large extents. Accurate methodologies to quantify these changes are necessary to understand the continued production of the ecosystem services upon which human health and well-being depend. This research quantifies spatio-temporal changes in aboveground biomass altered by sea level rise across North Carolina's coastal plain using a combination of repeat-acquisition lidar data and multi-temporal satellite imagery. Using field data from across the study area, we evaluated the reliability of multi-temporal lidar data with disparate densities and accuracies to detect changes along a coastal vegetation gradient from marsh to forested wetland. Despite an 18 fold increase in lidar point density between survey years (2001, 2014), the relationships between lidar-derived heights and field-measured heights were similar (adjusted r2; 0.6 -0.7). Random Forest, a machine learning algorithm, was used to separately predict above-ground biomass pools at the landscape-scale for the two time periods using the 98 field plots as reference data. Models performed well for both years (adjusted r2; 0.67-0.85). The 2001 model required the addition of Landsat spectral indices to meet the same adjusted r2 values as the 2014 model, which utilized lidar-derived metrics alone. Of the many potential lidar-derived predictor metrics, median and mean vegetation height were the best predictors in both time periods. To measure the spatial patterns of biomass change across the landscape, we subtracted the 2001 biomass model from the 2014 model and found significant spatial heterogeneity in biomass change across both the vegetation gradient and across the peninsula over the 12-year time period. In forested areas, we found a mean increase in aboveground biomass whereas in transition zones, marshes and freshwater emergent wetlands we

Assessing potential health impacts of waste recovery and reuse business models in Hanoi, Vietnam.

PubMed

Winkler, Mirko S; Fuhrimann, Samuel; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Cissé, Guéladio; Utzinger, Jürg; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

2017-02-01

In resource-constrained settings, the recovery of nutrients and the production of energy from liquid and solid waste are important. We determined the range and magnitude of potential community health impacts of six solid and liquid waste recovery and reuse business models in Hanoi, Vietnam. We employed a health impact assessment (HIA) approach using secondary data obtained from various sources supplemented with primary data collection. For determining the direction (positive or negative) and magnitude of potential health impacts in the population, a semiquantitative impact assessment was pursued. From a public health perspective, wastewater reuse for inland fish farming, coupled with on-site water treatment has considerable potential for individual and community-level health benefits. One of the business models investigated (i.e. dry fuel manufacturing with agro-waste) resulted in net negative health impacts. In Hanoi, the reuse of liquid and solid waste-as a mean to recover water and nutrients and to produce energy-has considerable potential for health benefits if appropriately managed and tailored to local contexts. Our HIA methodology provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for identification and promotion of business models for implementation in Hanoi.

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic pollution on cloud properties derived from ground based remote sensors at the North Slope of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maahn, M.; Acquistapace, C.; de Boer, G.; Cox, C.; Feingold, G.; Marke, T.; Williams, C. R.

2017-12-01

When acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or ice nucleating particles (INPs), aerosols have a strong potential to influence cloud properties. In particular, they can impact the number, size, and phase of cloud particles and potentially cloud lifetime through aerosol indirect and semi-direct effects. In polar regions, these effects are of great importance for the radiation budget due to the shortwave albedo and longwave emissivity of mixed-phase clouds. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program operates two super sites equipped with state of the art ground-based remote sensing instruments in northern Alaska. The sites are both coastal and are highly correlated with respect to large scale synoptic patterns. While the site at Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) generally represents a relatively pristine Arctic environment lacking significant anthropogenic sources, the site at Oliktok Point, approximately 250 km to the east, is surrounded by the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, which is the largest oil field in North America. Based on aircraft measurement, the authors recently showed that differences in the properties of liquid clouds properties between the sites can be attributed to local emissions associated with the industrial activities in the Prudhoe Bay region (Maahn et al. 2017, ACPD). However, aircraft measurements do not provide a representative sample of cloud properties due to temporal limitations in the amount of data. In order to investigate how frequently and to what extent liquid cloud properties and processes are modified, we use ground based remote sensing observations such as e.g., cloud radar, Doppler lidar, and microwave radiometer obtained continuously at the two sites. In this way, we are able to quantify inter-site differences with respect to cloud drizzle production, liquid water path, frequency of cloud occurrence, and cloud radiative properties. Turbulence and the coupling of clouds to the boundary layer is

Quantifying the Human Impacts on Papua New Guinea Reef Fish Communities across Space and Time.

PubMed

Drew, Joshua A; Amatangelo, Kathryn L; Hufbauer, Ruth A

2015-01-01

Describing the drivers of species loss and of community change are important goals in both conservation and ecology. However, it is difficult to determine whether exploited species decline due to direct effects of harvesting or due to other environmental perturbations brought about by proximity to human populations. Here we quantify differences in species richness of coral reef fish communities along a human population gradient in Papua New Guinea to understand the relative impacts of fishing and environmental perturbation. Using data from published species lists we categorize the reef fishes as either fished or non-fished based on their body size and reports from the published literature. Species diversity for both fished and non-fished groups decreases as the size of the local human population increases, and this relationship is stronger in species that are fished. Additionally, comparison of modern and museum collections show that modern reef communities have proportionally fewer fished species relative to 19th century ones. Together these findings show that the reef fish communities of Papua New Guinea experience multiple anthropogenic stressors and that even at low human population levels targeted species experience population declines across both time and space.

Respiratory-gated electrical impedance tomography: a potential technique for quantifying stroke volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arshad, Saaid H.; Murphy, Ethan K.; Halter, Ryan J.

2016-03-01

Telemonitoring is becoming increasingly important as the proportion of the population living with cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases. Currently used health parameters in the suite of telemonitoring tools lack the sensitivity and specificity to accurately predict heart failure events, forcing physicians to play a reactive versus proactive role in patient care. A novel cardiac output (CO) monitoring device is proposed that leverages a custom smart phone application and a wearable electrical impedance tomography (EIT) system. The purpose of this work is to explore the potential of using respiratory-gated EIT to quantify stroke volume (SV) and assess its feasibility using real data. Simulations were carried out using the 4D XCAT model to create anatomically realistic meshes and electrical conductivity profiles representing the human thorax and the intrathoracic tissue. A single 5-second period respiration cycle with chest/lung expansion was modeled with end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES) heart volumes to evaluate how effective EIT-based conductivity changes represent clinically significant differences in SV. After establishing a correlation between conductivity changes and SV, the applicability of the respiratory-gated EIT was refined using data from the PhysioNet database to estimate the number of useful end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES) heart events attained over a 3.3 minute period. The area associated with conductivity changes was found to correlate to SV with a correlation coefficient of 0.92. A window of 12.5% around peak exhalation was found to be the optimal phase of the respiratory cycle from which to record EIT data. Within this window, ~47 useable ED and ES were found with a standard deviation of 28 using 3.3 minutes of data for 20 patients.

Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin.

PubMed

Mattern, Thomas; Meyer, Stefan; Ellenberg, Ursula; Houston, David M; Darby, John T; Young, Melanie; van Heezik, Yolanda; Seddon, Philip J

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin ( Megadyptes antipodes ) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Quantifying the Urban and Rural Nutrient Fluxes to Lake Erie Using a Paired Watershed Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, M.; Beck, M.; Rossi, E.; Luh, N.; Allen-King, R. M.; Lowry, C.

2016-12-01

Excess nutrients have a detrimental impact on the water quality of Lake Erie, specifically nitrate and phosphate, which can lead to toxic algae blooms. Algae blooms have negatively impacted Lake Erie, which is the main source of drinking water for many coastal Great Lake communities. In 2014 the city of Toledo, Ohio was forced to shut down its water treatment plant due to these toxic algae blooms. The objective of this research is to quantify surface water nutrient fluxes to the eastern basin of Lake Erie using a paired watershed approach. Three different western New York watersheds that feed Lake Erie were chosen based on land use and areal extent: one small urban, one small rural, and one large rural. These paired watersheds were chosen to represent a range of sources of potential nutrient loading to the lake. Biweekly water samples were taken from the streams during the 2015-2016 winter to summer seasonal transition to quantify springtime snow melt effects on nutrient fluxes. These results were compared to the previous year samples, collected over the summer of 2015, which represented wetter conditions. Phosphorous levels were assessed using the ascorbic acid colorimetric assay, while nitrate was analyzed by anion-exchange chromatography. Stream gaging was used to obtain flow measurements and establish a rating curve, which was incorporated to quantify seasonal nutrient fluxes entering the lake. Patterns in the nutrient levels show higher level of nutrients in the rural watersheds with a decrease in concentration over the winter to spring transition. However, nutrient patterns in the urban stream show relatively constant patters of nutrient flux, which is independent of seasonal transition or stream discharge. A comparison of wet and dry seasons shows higher nutrient concentrations during summers with greater rainfall. By identifying the largest contributors of each nutrient, we can better allocate limited attenuation resources.

The potential impact of hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; Lamarque, J. F.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

2009-04-01

Energy models show very different trajectories for future energy systems (partly as function of future climate policy). One possible option is a transition towards a hydrogen-based energy system. The potential impact of such hydrogen economy on atmospheric emissions is highly uncertain. On the one hand, application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of local air pollutants, like SOx and NOx. On the other hand, emissions of hydrogen from system leakages are expected to change the atmospheric concentrations and behaviour (see also Price et al., 2007; Sanderson et al., 2003; Schultz et al., 2003; Tromp et al., 2003). The uncertainty arises from several sources: the expected use of hydrogen, the intensity of leakages and emissions, and the atmospheric chemical behaviour of hydrogen. Existing studies to the potential impacts of a hydrogen economy on the atmosphere mostly use hydrogen emission scenarios that are based on simple assumptions. This research combines two different modelling efforts to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. First, the potential role of hydrogen in the global energy system and the related emissions of hydrogen and other air pollutants are derived from the global energy system simulation model TIMER (van Vuuren, 2007). A set of dedicated scenarios on hydrogen technology development explores the most pessimistic and optimistic cases for hydrogen deployment (van Ruijven et al., 2008; van Ruijven et al., 2007). These scenarios are combined with different assumptions on hydrogen emission factors. Second, the emissions from the TIMER model are linked to the NCAR atmospheric model (Lamarque et al., 2005; Lamarque et al., 2008), in order to determine the impacts on atmospheric chemistry. By combining an energy system model and an atmospheric model, we are able to consistently explore the boundaries of both hydrogen use, emissions and impacts on atmospheric chemistry. References: Lamarque, J.-F., Kiehl, J. T

How big of an effect do small dams have? Using geomorphological footprints to quantify spatial impact of low-head dams and identify patterns of across-dam variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fencl, Jane S.; Mather, Martha E.; Costigan, Katie H.; Daniels, Melinda D.

2015-01-01

Longitudinal connectivity is a fundamental characteristic of rivers that can be disrupted by natural and anthropogenic processes. Dams are significant disruptions to streams. Over 2,000,000 low-head dams (<7.6 m high) fragment United States rivers. Despite potential adverse impacts of these ubiquitous disturbances, the spatial impacts of low-head dams on geomorphology and ecology are largely untested. Progress for research and conservation is impaired by not knowing the magnitude of low-head dam impacts. Based on the geomorphic literature, we refined a methodology that allowed us to quantify the spatial extent of low-head dam impacts (herein dam footprint), assessed variation in dam footprints across low-head dams within a river network, and identified select aspects of the context of this variation. Wetted width, depth, and substrate size distributions upstream and downstream of six low-head dams within the Upper Neosho River, Kansas, United States of America were measured. Total dam footprints averaged 7.9 km (3.0–15.3 km) or 287 wetted widths (136–437 wetted widths). Estimates included both upstream (mean: 6.7 km or 243 wetted widths) and downstream footprints (mean: 1.2 km or 44 wetted widths). Altogether the six low-head dams impacted 47.3 km (about 17%) of the mainstem in the river network. Despite differences in age, size, location, and primary function, the sizes of geomorphic footprints of individual low-head dams in the Upper Neosho river network were relatively similar. The number of upstream dams and distance to upstream dams, but not dam height, affected the spatial extent of dam footprints. In summary, ubiquitous low-head dams individually and cumulatively altered lotic ecosystems. Both characteristics of individual dams and the context of neighboring dams affected low-head dam impacts within the river network. For these reasons, low-head dams require a different, more integrative, approach for research and management than the individualistic

How Big of an Effect Do Small Dams Have? Using Geomorphological Footprints to Quantify Spatial Impact of Low-Head Dams and Identify Patterns of Across-Dam Variation

PubMed Central

Costigan, Katie H.; Daniels, Melinda D.

2015-01-01

Longitudinal connectivity is a fundamental characteristic of rivers that can be disrupted by natural and anthropogenic processes. Dams are significant disruptions to streams. Over 2,000,000 low-head dams (<7.6 m high) fragment United States rivers. Despite potential adverse impacts of these ubiquitous disturbances, the spatial impacts of low-head dams on geomorphology and ecology are largely untested. Progress for research and conservation is impaired by not knowing the magnitude of low-head dam impacts. Based on the geomorphic literature, we refined a methodology that allowed us to quantify the spatial extent of low-head dam impacts (herein dam footprint), assessed variation in dam footprints across low-head dams within a river network, and identified select aspects of the context of this variation. Wetted width, depth, and substrate size distributions upstream and downstream of six low-head dams within the Upper Neosho River, Kansas, United States of America were measured. Total dam footprints averaged 7.9 km (3.0–15.3 km) or 287 wetted widths (136–437 wetted widths). Estimates included both upstream (mean: 6.7 km or 243 wetted widths) and downstream footprints (mean: 1.2 km or 44 wetted widths). Altogether the six low-head dams impacted 47.3 km (about 17%) of the mainstem in the river network. Despite differences in age, size, location, and primary function, the sizes of geomorphic footprints of individual low-head dams in the Upper Neosho river network were relatively similar. The number of upstream dams and distance to upstream dams, but not dam height, affected the spatial extent of dam footprints. In summary, ubiquitous low-head dams individually and cumulatively altered lotic ecosystems. Both characteristics of individual dams and the context of neighboring dams affected low-head dam impacts within the river network. For these reasons, low-head dams require a different, more integrative, approach for research and management than the individualistic

A high-throughput assay for quantifying appetite and digestive dynamics.

PubMed

Jordi, Josua; Guggiana-Nilo, Drago; Soucy, Edward; Song, Erin Yue; Lei Wee, Caroline; Engert, Florian

2015-08-15

Food intake and digestion are vital functions, and their dysregulation is fundamental for many human diseases. Current methods do not support their dynamic quantification on large scales in unrestrained vertebrates. Here, we combine an infrared macroscope with fluorescently labeled food to quantify feeding behavior and intestinal nutrient metabolism with high temporal resolution, sensitivity, and throughput in naturally behaving zebrafish larvae. Using this method and rate-based modeling, we demonstrate that zebrafish larvae match nutrient intake to their bodily demand and that larvae adjust their digestion rate, according to the ingested meal size. Such adaptive feedback mechanisms make this model system amenable to identify potential chemical modulators. As proof of concept, we demonstrate that nicotine, l-lysine, ghrelin, and insulin have analogous impact on food intake as in mammals. Consequently, the method presented here will promote large-scale translational research of food intake and digestive function in a naturally behaving vertebrate. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

A high-throughput assay for quantifying appetite and digestive dynamics

PubMed Central

Guggiana-Nilo, Drago; Soucy, Edward; Song, Erin Yue; Lei Wee, Caroline; Engert, Florian

2015-01-01

Food intake and digestion are vital functions, and their dysregulation is fundamental for many human diseases. Current methods do not support their dynamic quantification on large scales in unrestrained vertebrates. Here, we combine an infrared macroscope with fluorescently labeled food to quantify feeding behavior and intestinal nutrient metabolism with high temporal resolution, sensitivity, and throughput in naturally behaving zebrafish larvae. Using this method and rate-based modeling, we demonstrate that zebrafish larvae match nutrient intake to their bodily demand and that larvae adjust their digestion rate, according to the ingested meal size. Such adaptive feedback mechanisms make this model system amenable to identify potential chemical modulators. As proof of concept, we demonstrate that nicotine, l-lysine, ghrelin, and insulin have analogous impact on food intake as in mammals. Consequently, the method presented here will promote large-scale translational research of food intake and digestive function in a naturally behaving vertebrate. PMID:26108871

Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

2015-01-01

We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-12-01

Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, J. A.

2011-12-01

Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

Noise impact on wildlife: An environmental impact assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, A.

1977-01-01

Various biological effects of noise on animals are discussed and a systematic approach for an impact assessment is developed. Further research is suggested to fully quantify noise impact on the species and its ecosystem.

Quantifying selective pressures driving bacterial evolution using lineage analysis

PubMed Central

Lambert, Guillaume; Kussell, Edo

2015-01-01

Organisms use a variety of strategies to adapt to their environments and maximize long-term growth potential, but quantitative characterization of the benefits conferred by the use of such strategies, as well as their impact on the whole population’s rate of growth, remains challenging. Here, we use a path-integral framework that describes how selection acts on lineages –i.e. the life-histories of individuals and their ancestors– to demonstrate that lineage-based measurements can be used to quantify the selective pressures acting on a population. We apply this analysis to E. coli bacteria exposed to cyclical treatments of carbenicillin, an antibiotic that interferes with cell-wall synthesis and affects cells in an age-dependent manner. While the extensive characterization of the life-history of thousands of cells is necessary to accurately extract the age-dependent selective pressures caused by carbenicillin, the same measurement can be recapitulated using lineage-based statistics of a single surviving cell. Population-wide evolutionary pressures can be extracted from the properties of the surviving lineages within a population, providing an alternative and efficient procedure to quantify the evolutionary forces acting on a population. Importantly, this approach is not limited to age-dependent selection, and the framework can be generalized to detect signatures of other trait-specific selection using lineage-based measurements. Our results establish a powerful way to study the evolutionary dynamics of life under selection, and may be broadly useful in elucidating selective pressures driving the emergence of antibiotic resistance and the evolution of survival strategies in biological systems. PMID:26213639

Quantifying Selective Pressures Driving Bacterial Evolution Using Lineage Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, Guillaume; Kussell, Edo

2015-01-01

Organisms use a variety of strategies to adapt to their environments and maximize long-term growth potential, but quantitative characterization of the benefits conferred by the use of such strategies, as well as their impact on the whole population's rate of growth, remains challenging. Here, we use a path-integral framework that describes how selection acts on lineages—i.e., the life histories of individuals and their ancestors—to demonstrate that lineage-based measurements can be used to quantify the selective pressures acting on a population. We apply this analysis to Escherichia coli bacteria exposed to cyclical treatments of carbenicillin, an antibiotic that interferes with cell-wall synthesis and affects cells in an age-dependent manner. While the extensive characterization of the life history of thousands of cells is necessary to accurately extract the age-dependent selective pressures caused by carbenicillin, the same measurement can be recapitulated using lineage-based statistics of a single surviving cell. Population-wide evolutionary pressures can be extracted from the properties of the surviving lineages within a population, providing an alternative and efficient procedure to quantify the evolutionary forces acting on a population. Importantly, this approach is not limited to age-dependent selection, and the framework can be generalized to detect signatures of other trait-specific selection using lineage-based measurements. Our results establish a powerful way to study the evolutionary dynamics of life under selection and may be broadly useful in elucidating selective pressures driving the emergence of antibiotic resistance and the evolution of survival strategies in biological systems.

Quantifying uncertainties in precipitation measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. Z. D.

2017-12-01

The scientific community have a long history of utilizing precipitation data for climate model design. However, precipitation record and its model contains more uncertainty than its temperature counterpart. Literature research have shown precipitation measurements to be highly influenced by its surrounding environment, and weather stations are traditionally situated in open areas and subject to various limitations. As a result, this restriction limits the ability of the scientific community to fully close the loop on the water cycle. Horizontal redistribution have been shown to be a major factor influencing precipitation measurements. Efforts have been placed on reducing its effect on the monitoring apparatus. However, the amount of factors contributing to this uncertainty is numerous and difficult to fully capture. As a result, noise factor remains high in precipitation data. This study aims to quantify all uncertainties in precipitation data by factoring out horizontal redistribution by measuring them directly. Horizontal contribution of precipitation will be quantified by measuring precipitation at different heights, with one directly shadowing the other. The above collection represents traditional precipitation data, whereas the bottom measurements sums up the overall error term at given location. Measurements will be recorded and correlated with nearest available wind measurements to quantify its impact on traditional precipitation record. Collections at different locations will also be compared to see whether this phenomenon is location specific or if a general trend can be derived. We aim to demonstrate a new way to isolate the noise component in traditional precipitation data via empirical measurements. By doing so, improve the overall quality of historic precipitation record. As a result, provide a more accurate information for the design and calibration of large scale climate modeling.

The potential impacts of biomass feedstock production on water resource availability.

PubMed

Stone, K C; Hunt, P G; Cantrell, K B; Ro, K S

2010-03-01

Biofuels are a major topic of global interest and technology development. Whereas bioenergy crop production is highly dependent on water, bioenergy development requires effective allocation and management of water. The objectives of this investigation were to assess the bioenergy production relative to the impacts on water resource related factors: (1) climate and weather impact on water supplies for biomass production; (2) water use for major bioenergy crop production; and (3) potential alternatives to improve water supplies for bioenergy. Shifts to alternative bioenergy crops with greater water demand may produce unintended consequences for both water resources and energy feedstocks. Sugarcane and corn require 458 and 2036 m(3) water/m(3) ethanol produced, respectively. The water requirements for corn grain production to meet the US-DOE Billion-Ton Vision may increase approximately 6-fold from 8.6 to 50.1 km(3). Furthermore, climate change is impacting water resources throughout the world. In the western US, runoff from snowmelt is occurring earlier altering the timing of water availability. Weather extremes, both drought and flooding, have occurred more frequently over the last 30 years than the previous 100 years. All of these weather events impact bioenergy crop production. These events may be partially mitigated by alternative water management systems that offer potential for more effective water use and conservation. A few potential alternatives include controlled drainage and new next-generation livestock waste treatment systems. Controlled drainage can increase water available to plants and simultaneously improve water quality. New livestock waste treatments systems offer the potential to utilize treated wastewater to produce bioenergy crops. New technologies for cellulosic biomass conversion via thermochemical conversion offer the potential for using more diverse feedstocks with dramatically reduced water requirements. The development of bioenergy

A framework for quantifying the impacts of sub-pixel reflectance variance and covariance on cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals based on the bi-spectral method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Werner, F.; Cho, H.-M.; Wind, G.; Platnick, S.; Ackerman, A. S.; Di Girolamo, L.; Marshak, A.; Meyer, Kerry

2017-02-01

The so-called bi-spectral method retrieves cloud optical thickness (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (re) simultaneously from a pair of cloud reflectance observations, one in a visible or near infrared (VIS/NIR) band and the other in a shortwave-infrared (SWIR) band. A cloudy pixel is usually assumed to be horizontally homogeneous in the retrieval. Ignoring sub-pixel variations of cloud reflectances can lead to a significant bias in the retrieved τ and re. In this study, we use the Taylor expansion of a two-variable function to understand and quantify the impacts of sub-pixel variances of VIS/NIR and SWIR cloud reflectances and their covariance on the τ and re retrievals. This framework takes into account the fact that the retrievals are determined by both VIS/NIR and SWIR band observations in a mutually dependent way. In comparison with previous studies, it provides a more comprehensive understanding of how sub-pixel cloud reflectance variations impact the τ and re retrievals based on the bi-spectral method. In particular, our framework provides a mathematical explanation of how the sub-pixel variation in VIS/NIR band influences the re retrieval and why it can sometimes outweigh the influence of variations in the SWIR band and dominate the error in re retrievals, leading to a potential contribution of positive bias to the re retrieval.

A Framework for Quantifying the Impacts of Sub-Pixel Reflectance Variance and Covariance on Cloud Optical Thickness and Effective Radius Retrievals Based on the Bi-Spectral Method.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Z; Werner, F.; Cho, H. -M.; Wind, Galina; Platnick, S.; Ackerman, A. S.; Di Girolamo, L.; Marshak, A.; Meyer, Kerry

2017-01-01

The so-called bi-spectral method retrieves cloud optical thickness (t) and cloud droplet effective radius (re) simultaneously from a pair of cloud reflectance observations, one in a visible or near infrared (VIS/NIR) band and the other in a shortwave-infrared (SWIR) band. A cloudy pixel is usually assumed to be horizontally homogeneous in the retrieval. Ignoring sub-pixel variations of cloud reflectances can lead to a significant bias in the retrieved t and re. In this study, we use the Taylor expansion of a two-variable function to understand and quantify the impacts of sub-pixel variances of VIS/NIR and SWIR cloud reflectances and their covariance on the t and re retrievals. This framework takes into account the fact that the retrievals are determined by both VIS/NIR and SWIR band observations in a mutually dependent way. In comparison with previous studies, it provides a more comprehensive understanding of how sub-pixel cloud reflectance variations impact the t and re retrievals based on the bi-spectral method. In particular, our framework provides a mathematical explanation of how the sub-pixel variation in VIS/NIR band influences the re retrieval and why it can sometimes outweigh the influence of variations in the SWIR band and dominate the error in re retrievals, leading to a potential contribution of positive bias to the re retrieval.

Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.

2014-01-01

The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability.more » This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.« less

Quantifying the conservation gains from shared access to linear infrastructure.

PubMed

Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Gordon, Ascelin; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2017-12-01

The proliferation of linear infrastructure such as roads and railways is a major global driver of cumulative biodiversity loss. One strategy for reducing habitat loss associated with development is to encourage linear infrastructure providers and users to share infrastructure networks. We quantified the reductions in biodiversity impact and capital costs under linear infrastructure sharing of a range of potential mine to port transportation links for 47 mine locations operated by 28 separate companies in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region of South Australia. We mapped transport links based on least-cost pathways for different levels of linear-infrastructure sharing and used expert-elicited impacts of linear infrastructure to estimate the consequences for biodiversity. Capital costs were calculated based on estimates of construction costs, compensation payments, and transaction costs. We evaluated proposed mine-port links by comparing biodiversity impacts and capital costs across 3 scenarios: an independent scenario, where no infrastructure is shared; a restricted-access scenario, where the largest mining companies share infrastructure but exclude smaller mining companies from sharing; and a shared scenario where all mining companies share linear infrastructure. Fully shared development of linear infrastructure reduced overall biodiversity impacts by 76% and reduced capital costs by 64% compared with the independent scenario. However, there was considerable variation among companies. Our restricted-access scenario showed only modest biodiversity benefits relative to the independent scenario, indicating that reductions are likely to be limited if the dominant mining companies restrict access to infrastructure, which often occurs without policies that promote sharing of infrastructure. Our research helps illuminate the circumstances under which infrastructure sharing can minimize the biodiversity impacts of development. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

Flooding and subsidence in the Thames Gateway: impact on insurance loss potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royse, Katherine; Horn, Diane; Eldridge, Jillian; Barker, Karen

2010-05-01

In the UK, household buildings insurance generally covers loss and damage to the insured property from a range of natural and human perils, including windstorm, flood, subsidence, theft, accidental fire and winter freeze. Consequently, insurers require a reasoned view on the likely scale of losses that they may face to assist in strategic planning, reinsurance structuring, regulatory returns and general risk management. The UK summer 2007 flood events not only provided a clear indication of the scale of potential losses that the industry could face from an individual event, with £3 billion in claims, but also identified a need for insurers and reinsurers to better understand how events may correlate in time and space, and how to most effectively use the computational models of extreme events that are commonly applied to reflect these correlations. In addition to the potential for temporal clustering of events such as windstorms and floods, there is a possibility that seemingly uncorrelated natural perils, such as floods and subsidence, may impact an insurer's portfolio. Where aggregations of large numbers of new properties are planned, such as in the Thames Gateway, consideration of the potential future risk of aggregate losses due to the combination of perils such as subsidence and flood is increasingly important within the insurance company's strategic risk management process. Whilst perils such as subsidence and flooding are generally considered independent within risk modelling, the potential for one event to influence the magnitude and likelihood of the other should be taken into account when determining risk level. In addition, the impact of correlated, but distinctive, loss causing events on particular property types may be significant, particularly if a specific property is designed to protect against one peril but is potentially susceptible to another. We suggest that flood events can lead to increased subsidence risk due to the weight of additional water

Appropriating Quantified Self Technologies to Support Elementary Statistical Teaching and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Victor R.; Drake, Joel R.; Thayne, Jeffrey L.

2016-01-01

Wearable activity tracking devices associated with the Quantified Self movement have potential benefit for educational settings because they produce authentic and granular data about activities and experiences already familiar to youth. This article explores how that potential could be realized through explicit acknowledgment of and response to…

Potential impact of acid precipitation on arsenic and selenium.

PubMed Central

Mushak, P

1985-01-01

The potential impact of acidic precipitation on the environmental mobility of the metalloids arsenic (As) and selenium (Se) has not been given much attention and is poorly understood. As with other elements, the interest here is the potential effect of environmental acidification on environmental behavior in ways that are relevant to human exposure to these metalloids. Available information on acid precipitation and the environmental behavior of these metalloids do, however, permit some preliminary conclusions to be drawn. Both As and Se appear to be mobilized from household plumbing into tap water by the corrosive action of soft, mildly acidic water, while surface water catchment systems in areas impacted by acidic deposition may contain elevated soluble As levels. Acidification of aquatic ecosystems that are drinking water sources may pose the prospect of enhanced release of As from sediment to water as well as reduction in water levels of Se. Acidification of ground waters, where As appears to be especially mobile, is of particular concern in this regard. The potential impact of acidic deposition on As and Se in soils cannot readily be assessed with respect to human exposure, but it would appear that the behavior of these metalloids in poorly buffered, poorly immobilizing soils, e.g., sandy soils of low metal hydrous oxide content, would be most affected. The effect is opposite for the two elements; lowered pH would appear to enhance As mobility and to reduce Se availability. Altered acidity of both soil and aquatic systems poses a risk for altered biotransformation processes involving both As and Se, thereby affecting the relative amounts of different chemical forms varying in their toxicity to humans as well as influencing biogeochemical cycling. PMID:4076075

Potential impact of acid precipitation on arsenic and selenium.

PubMed

Mushak, P

1985-11-01

The potential impact of acidic precipitation on the environmental mobility of the metalloids arsenic (As) and selenium (Se) has not been given much attention and is poorly understood. As with other elements, the interest here is the potential effect of environmental acidification on environmental behavior in ways that are relevant to human exposure to these metalloids. Available information on acid precipitation and the environmental behavior of these metalloids do, however, permit some preliminary conclusions to be drawn. Both As and Se appear to be mobilized from household plumbing into tap water by the corrosive action of soft, mildly acidic water, while surface water catchment systems in areas impacted by acidic deposition may contain elevated soluble As levels. Acidification of aquatic ecosystems that are drinking water sources may pose the prospect of enhanced release of As from sediment to water as well as reduction in water levels of Se. Acidification of ground waters, where As appears to be especially mobile, is of particular concern in this regard. The potential impact of acidic deposition on As and Se in soils cannot readily be assessed with respect to human exposure, but it would appear that the behavior of these metalloids in poorly buffered, poorly immobilizing soils, e.g., sandy soils of low metal hydrous oxide content, would be most affected. The effect is opposite for the two elements; lowered pH would appear to enhance As mobility and to reduce Se availability. Altered acidity of both soil and aquatic systems poses a risk for altered biotransformation processes involving both As and Se, thereby affecting the relative amounts of different chemical forms varying in their toxicity to humans as well as influencing biogeochemical cycling.

Quantifying resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

2016-01-01

Several frameworks to operationalize resilience have been proposed. A decade ago, a special feature focused on quantifying resilience was published in the journal Ecosystems (Carpenter, Westley & Turner 2005). The approach there was towards identifying surrogates of resilience, but few of the papers proposed quantifiable metrics. Consequently, many ecological resilience frameworks remain vague and difficult to quantify, a problem that this special feature aims to address. However, considerable progress has been made during the last decade (e.g. Pope, Allen & Angeler 2014). Although some argue that resilience is best kept as an unquantifiable, vague concept (Quinlan et al. 2016), to be useful for managers, there must be concrete guidance regarding how and what to manage and how to measure success (Garmestani, Allen & Benson 2013; Spears et al. 2015). Ideas such as ‘resilience thinking’ have utility in helping stakeholders conceptualize their systems, but provide little guidance on how to make resilience useful for ecosystem management, other than suggesting an ambiguous, Goldilocks approach of being just right (e.g. diverse, but not too diverse; connected, but not too connected). Here, we clarify some prominent resilience terms and concepts, introduce and synthesize the papers in this special feature on quantifying resilience and identify core unanswered questions related to resilience.

Consumption of Hibiscus sabdariffa L. aqueous extract and its impact on systemic antioxidant potential in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Frank, Thomas; Netzel, Gabriele; Kammerer, Dietmar R; Carle, Reinhold; Kler, Adolf; Kriesl, Erwin; Bitsch, Irmgard; Bitsch, Roland; Netzel, Michael

2012-08-15

To evaluate health benefits attributed to Hibiscus sabdariffa L. a randomized, open-label, two-way crossover study was undertaken to compare the impact of an aqueous H. sabdariffa L. extract (HSE) on the systemic antioxidant potential (AOP; assayed by ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP)) with a reference treatment (water) in eight healthy volunteers. The biokinetic variables were the areas under the curve (AUC) of plasma FRAP, ascorbic acid and urate that are above the pre-dose concentration, and the amounts excreted into urine within 24 h (Ae(0-24) ) of antioxidants as assayed by FRAP, ascorbic acid, uric acid, malondialdehyde (biomarker for oxidative stress), and hippuric acid (metabolite and potential biomarker for total polyphenol intake). HSE caused significantly higher plasma AUC of FRAP, an increase in Ae(0-24) of FRAP, ascorbic acid and hippuric acid, whereas malondialdehyde excretion was reduced. Furthermore, the main hibiscus anthocyanins as well as one glucuronide conjugate could be quantified in the volunteers' urine (0.02% of the administered dose). The aqueous HSE investigated in this study enhanced the systemic AOP and reduced the oxidative stress in humans. Furthermore, the increased urinary hippuric acid excretion after HSE consumption indicates a high biotransformation of the ingested HSE polyphenols, most likely caused by the colonic microbiota. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

Broadband ship noise and its potential impacts on Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins: Implications for conservation and management.

PubMed

Liu, Mingming; Dong, Lijun; Lin, Mingli; Li, Songhai

2017-11-01

Ship noise pollution has raised considerable concerns among regulatory agencies and cetacean researchers worldwide. There is an urgent need to quantify ship noise in coastal areas and assess its potential biological impacts. In this study, underwater broadband noise from commercial ships in a critical habitat of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins was recorded and analyzed. Data analysis indicated that the ship noise caused by the investigated commercial ships with an average length of 134 ± 81 m, traveling at 18.8 ± 2.5 km/h [mean ± standard deviation (SD), n = 21] comprises mid-to-high components with frequencies approaching and exceeding 100 kHz, and the ship noise could be sensed auditorily by Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins within most of their sensitive frequency range. The contributions of ship noise to ambient noise were highest in two third-octave bands with center frequencies of 8 and 50 kHz, which are within the sensitive hearing range of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins and overlap the frequency of sounds that are biologically significant to the dolphins. It is estimated that ship noise in these third-octave bands can be auditorily sensed by and potentially affect the dolphins within 2290 ± 1172 m and 848 ± 358 m (mean ± SD, n = 21), respectively.

Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity and Climate Change Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leon, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.; Li, H. Y.

2014-12-01

Hydropower is a dominant renewable energy source at the global level, accounting for more than 15% of the world's total power supply. It is also very vulnerable to climate change. Improved understanding of climate change impact on hydropower can help develop adaptation measures to increase the resilience of energy system. In this study, we developed a comprehensive estimate of global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data derived from a global hydrologic model with a river routing sub-model, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental consideration (Figure 1). We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by regions. Resources in a number of countries exceed by multiple folds the total current demand for electricity, e.g., Russia and Indonesia. A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower potential can be highly sensitive to a number of parameters including designed flow for capacity, cost and financing, turbine efficiency, and stream flow. The climate change impact on hydropower potential was evaluated by using runoff outputs from 4 climate models (HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, and CSIRO2). It was found that the climate change on hydropower shows large variation not only by regions, but also climate models, and this demonstrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning at the regional level though the existing uncertainties.

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and

Particulate matter emissions from biochar-amended soils as a potential tradeoff to the negative emission potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Sujith; Sharratt, Brenton S.; Li, Junran; Olshevski, Stuart; Meng, Zhongju; Zhang, Jianguo

2016-10-01

Novel carbon sequestration strategies such as large-scale land application of biochar may provide sustainable pathways to increase the terrestrial storage of carbon. Biochar has a long residence time in the soil and hence comprehensive studies are urgently needed to quantify the environmental impacts of large-scale biochar application. In particular, black carbon emissions from soils amended with biochar may counteract the negative emission potential due to the impacts on air quality, climate, and biogeochemical cycles. We investigated, using wind tunnel experiments, the particulate matter emission potential of a sand and two agriculturally important soils amended with different concentrations of biochar, in comparison to control soils. Our results indicate that biochar application considerably increases particulate emissions possibly by two mechanisms-the accelerated emission of fine biochar particles and the generation and emission of fine biochar particles resulting from abrasion of large biochar particles by sand grains. Our study highlights the importance of considering the background soil properties (e.g., texture) and geomorphological processes (e.g., aeolian transport) for biochar-based carbon sequestration programs.

Potential Health Impacts of Bauxite Mining in Kuantan

PubMed Central

Abdullah, Noor Hisham; Mohamed, Norlen; Sulaiman, Lokman Hakim; Zakaria, Thahirahtul Asma; Rahim, Daud Abdul

2016-01-01

Bauxite mining is not known to most Malaysian except recently due to environmental pollution issues in Kuantan, Pahang. Potential impacts are expected to go beyond physical environment and physical illness if the situation is not controlled. Loss of economic potentials, and the presence of unpleasant red dust causing mental distress, anger and community outrage. More studies are needed to associate it with chronic physical illness. While evidences are vital for action, merely waiting for a disease to occur is a sign of failure in prevention. All responsible agencies should focus on a wider aspect of health determinants rather than merely on the occurrence of diseases to act and the need to emphasize on sustainable mining to ensure health of people is not compromised. PMID:27418864

Potential Health Impacts of Bauxite Mining in Kuantan.

PubMed

Abdullah, Noor Hisham; Mohamed, Norlen; Sulaiman, Lokman Hakim; Zakaria, Thahirahtul Asma; Rahim, Daud Abdul

2016-05-01

Bauxite mining is not known to most Malaysian except recently due to environmental pollution issues in Kuantan, Pahang. Potential impacts are expected to go beyond physical environment and physical illness if the situation is not controlled. Loss of economic potentials, and the presence of unpleasant red dust causing mental distress, anger and community outrage. More studies are needed to associate it with chronic physical illness. While evidences are vital for action, merely waiting for a disease to occur is a sign of failure in prevention. All responsible agencies should focus on a wider aspect of health determinants rather than merely on the occurrence of diseases to act and the need to emphasize on sustainable mining to ensure health of people is not compromised.

Preliminary Assessment of Potential Impacts to Dungeness Crabs from Disposal of Dredged Materials from the Columbia River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pearson, Walter H.; Miller, Martin C.; Williams, Greg D.

2006-02-01

Dredging of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about dredging-related impacts on Dungeness crabs (Cancer magister). The overall objectives of this effort are to synthesize what is known about disposal effects on Dungeness crabs (Phase 1) and to offer approaches to quantify the effects, including approaches to gain a population-level perspective on any effects found in subsequent studies (Phase 2). This report documents Phase 1, which included (1) development of a conceptual model to integrate knowledge about crab biology and the physical processes occurring during disposal, (2) application of physics-based numerical modeling of the disposal event to understandmore » the physical forces and processes to which a crab might be exposed during disposal, (3) conduct of a vulnerability analysis to identify the potential mechanisms by which crabs may be injured, and (4) recommendations of topics and approaches for future studies to assess the potential population-level effects of disposal on Dungeness crabs. The conceptual model first recognizes that disposal of dredged materials is a physically dynamic process with three aspects: (1) convective descent and bottom encounter, (2) dynamic collapse and spreading, and (3) mounding. Numerical modeling was used to assess the magnitude of the potentially relevant forces and extent of mounding in single disposal events. The modeling outcomes show that predicted impact pressure, shear stress, and mound depth are greatly reduced by discharge in deep water, and somewhat reduced at longer discharge duration. The analysis of numerical modeling results and vulnerabilities indicate that the vulnerability of crabs to compression forces under any of the disposal scenarios is low. For the deep-water disposal scenarios, the maximum forces and mounding do not appear to be sufficiently high enough to warrant concern for surge currents or burial at the depths involved (over 230 ft). For the shallow-water (45 to 65 ft

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part I: Direct radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, J. W.; Zhang, J.; Reid, J. S.; Benedetti, A.; Christensen, M.

2017-12-01

While the effects of aerosols on climate have been extensively studied over the past two decades, the impacts of aerosols on operational weather forecasts have not been carefully quantified. Despite this lack of quantification, aerosol plumes can impact weather forecasts directly by reducing surface reaching solar radiation and indirectly through affecting remotely sensed data that are used for weather forecasts. In part I of this study, the direct impact of smoke aerosol plumes on surface temperature forecasts are quantified using a smoke aerosol event affecting the United States Upper-Midwest in 2015. NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO model forecast surface temperature uncertainties are studied with respect to aerosol loading. Smoke aerosol direct cooling efficiencies are derived and the potential of including aerosol particles in operational forecasts is discussed, with the consideration of aerosol trends, especially over regions with heavy aerosol loading.

Significance of Rib Fractures Potentially Caused by Blunt Impact Non Lethal Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

Center Drive Alexandria, Virginia 22311-1882 I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S Significance of Rib Fractures Potentially...F E N S E A N A L Y S E S IDA Document D-8277 Significance of Rib Fractures Potentially Caused by Blunt-Impact Non-Lethal Weapons Shelley M. Cazares...deterrent by inducing pain or muscle spasm at the site of impact of the affected individual. These weapons may induce rib fractures —the focus of this

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C

Quantifying sources of bias in longitudinal data linkage studies of child abuse and neglect: measuring impact of outcome specification, linkage error, and partial cohort follow-up.

PubMed

Parrish, Jared W; Shanahan, Meghan E; Schnitzer, Patricia G; Lanier, Paul; Daniels, Julie L; Marshall, Stephen W

2017-12-01

Health informatics projects combining statewide birth populations with child welfare records have emerged as a valuable approach to conducting longitudinal research of child maltreatment. The potential bias resulting from linkage misspecification, partial cohort follow-up, and outcome misclassification in these studies has been largely unexplored. This study integrated epidemiological survey and novel administrative data sources to establish the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage (ALCANLink) project. Using these data we evaluated and quantified the impact of non-linkage misspecification and single source maltreatment ascertainment use on reported maltreatment risk and effect estimates. The ALCANLink project integrates the 2009-2011 Alaska Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) sample with multiple administrative databases through 2014, including one novel administrative source to track out-of-state emigration. For this project we limited our analysis to the 2009 PRAMS sample. We report on the impact of linkage quality, cohort follow-up, and multisource outcome ascertainment on the incidence proportion of reported maltreatment before age 6 and hazard ratios of selected characteristics that are often available in birth cohort linkage studies of maltreatment. Failure to account for out-of-state emigration biased the incidence proportion by 12% (from 28.3% w to 25.2% w ), and the hazard ratio (HR) by as much as 33% for some risk factors. Overly restrictive linkage parameters biased the incidence proportion downwards by 43% and the HR by as much as 27% for some factors. Multi-source linkages, on the other hand, were of little benefit for improving reported maltreatment ascertainment. Using the ALCANLink data which included a novel administrative data source, we were able to observe and quantify bias to both the incidence proportion and HR in a birth cohort linkage study of reported child maltreatment. Failure to account for out

Quantifying the impact of smoke aerosol on the UV radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolik, I. N.; Tatarskii, V.; Hall, S. R.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.

2017-12-01

We present an analysis of the impact of smoke on the UV radiation. The analysis is performed for a case study by combining the modeling and measurements. The case study is focusing in wildfires occurred in California in ????. The fires have been affecting the environment in the region, posing a serious threat to the human well - being.The modeling is performed using a fully couple WRF- Chem- SMOKE model. The model uses the FRP MODIS satellite data to generate the smoke emission for an actual event. The smoke aerosol is treated in a size and composition resolved manner. The optical properties are computed online and provided to the TUV model that is incorporated in the WRF - Chem-SMOKE model. The analysis of the impact of smoke on the UV radiation is performed. We assess the impact of smoke on the TOA radiative forcing. Our results show a significant impact of smoke on the radiative regime of the atmosphere.

Quantifying fluvial sediment transport in a mountain catchment (Schöttlbach, Styria) using sediment impact sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stangl, Johannes; Sass, Oliver; Schneider, Josef; Harb, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Sediment transport in river systems, being the output of geomorphic processes in the catchment, is a recurrent problem for geomorphological sediment budget studies, natural hazard assessment and river engineering. Sediment budgets of alpine catchments are likely to be modified by changing total precipitation and the probability of heavy precipitation events in the context of climate change, even if projections of precipitation change for Austria and the entire Alpine region are still very uncertain. Effective sediment management requires profound knowledge on the sediment cascade in the head-waters. However, bedload measurements at alpine rivers or torrents are rare; in Styria, they are altogether missing. Due to a three hour heavy rainfall event on 07-Jul 2011, which caused cata-strophic flooding with massive damage in the city of Oberwölz and its surrounding, we chose the catchment area of the Schöttlbach in the upper Mur river valley in Styria (Austria) as our study area. In the framework of the ClimCatch project, we intend to develop a conceptual model of coupled and decoupled sediment routing to quantify the most prominent sediment fluxes and sediment sinks, combining up-to-date geomorphological and river engineering techniques. Repeated Airborne Laser Scans will provide an overview of ongoing processes, diachronous TLS surveys (cut-and-fill analysis), ground-penetrating radar and 2D-geoelectric surveys should quantity the most important mass fluxes on the slopes and in the channels and derive a quantitative sediment budget, including the volume of temporary sediment stores. Besides quantifying slope processes, sediment sinks and total sediment output, the sediment trans-port in the torrents is of particular interest. We use sediment impact sensors (SIS) which were in-stalled in several river sections in the main stretch of the Schöttlbach and in its tributaries. The SIS mainly consists of two parts connected by a coated cable, the steel shell with the

The potential radiological impact from a Brazilian phosphate facility.

PubMed

Glória dos Reis, Rócio; da Costa Lauria, Dejanira

2014-10-01

In the semiarid region of Brazil, a facility for the production of phosphoric acid for fertilizer is in the last stages of the planning phase. The raw feedstock of Santa Quiteria has a very high level of uranium associated with the phosphate in form of apatite. The reaction by which phosphoric acid is produced generates phosphogypsum (PG) as a by-product. The ratio of phosphogypsum to phosphoric acid is approximately 5 to 1. After all of the phosphate has been extracted and processed, it is expected that some 37 million tons of phosphogypsum will be produced, containing 13 Bq/g of (226)Ra and 11 Bq/g of (210)Pb. To assess the potential impact of this PG stack on the surrounding inhabitants, a generic impact assessment was performed using a modeling approach. We estimated the amount and shape of the residue stack and used computational codes for assessing the radiological impact in a prospective risk assessment. A hypothetical farmer scenario was used to calculate two potential doses, one near the site boundary and another directly over the stack piles after the project is shut down. Using a conservative approach, the potential public dose was estimated to be 2.8 mSv/y. This study identified the rainfall erosion index, dissolution rate of PG, radionuclide distribution coefficients and fish consumption rate as parameters where improved information could enhance the quality of the dose assessment. The disposal and shape of the stack is of major concern, since the PG erosion might be the main pathway for the environmental contamination; therefore, studies should be carried out to determine a suitable shape and disposal of the stack. Furthermore, containment barriers should be evaluated for their potential to reduce or avoid environmental contamination by runoff. In addition, the onsite public dose underscores the importance of a planning for remediation of the area after the plant is shut down to assure that neither the public nor the environmental health will be

The potential for dams to impact lowland meandering river floodplain geomorphology.

PubMed

Marren, Philip M; Grove, James R; Webb, J Angus; Stewardson, Michael J

2014-01-01

The majority of the world's floodplains are dammed. Although some implications of dams for riverine ecology and for river channel morphology are well understood, there is less research on the impacts of dams on floodplain geomorphology. We review studies from dammed and undammed rivers and include influences on vertical and lateral accretion, meander migration and cutoff formation, avulsion, and interactions with floodplain vegetation. The results are synthesized into a conceptual model of the effects of dams on the major geomorphic influences on floodplain development. This model is used to assess the likely consequences of eight dam and flow regulation scenarios for floodplain geomorphology. Sediment starvation downstream of dams has perhaps the greatest potential to impact on floodplain development. Such effects will persist further downstream where tributary sediment inputs are relatively low and there is minimal buffering by alluvial sediment stores. We can identify several ways in which floodplains might potentially be affected by dams, with varying degrees of confidence, including a distinction between passive impacts (floodplain disconnection) and active impacts (changes in geomorphological processes and functioning). These active processes are likely to have more serious implications for floodplain function and emphasize both the need for future research and the need for an "environmental sediment regime" to operate alongside environmental flows.

The Potential for Dams to Impact Lowland Meandering River Floodplain Geomorphology

PubMed Central

Marren, Philip M.; Grove, James R.; Webb, J. Angus; Stewardson, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The majority of the world's floodplains are dammed. Although some implications of dams for riverine ecology and for river channel morphology are well understood, there is less research on the impacts of dams on floodplain geomorphology. We review studies from dammed and undammed rivers and include influences on vertical and lateral accretion, meander migration and cutoff formation, avulsion, and interactions with floodplain vegetation. The results are synthesized into a conceptual model of the effects of dams on the major geomorphic influences on floodplain development. This model is used to assess the likely consequences of eight dam and flow regulation scenarios for floodplain geomorphology. Sediment starvation downstream of dams has perhaps the greatest potential to impact on floodplain development. Such effects will persist further downstream where tributary sediment inputs are relatively low and there is minimal buffering by alluvial sediment stores. We can identify several ways in which floodplains might potentially be affected by dams, with varying degrees of confidence, including a distinction between passive impacts (floodplain disconnection) and active impacts (changes in geomorphological processes and functioning). These active processes are likely to have more serious implications for floodplain function and emphasize both the need for future research and the need for an “environmental sediment regime” to operate alongside environmental flows. PMID:24587718

Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

2016-12-01

The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

The impact of emotion on respiratory-related evoked potentials

PubMed Central

von Leupoldt, Andreas; Vovk, Andrea; Bradley, Margaret M.; Keil, Andreas; Lang, Peter J.; Davenport, Paul W.

2013-01-01

Emotion influences the perception of respiratory sensations, although the specific mechanism underlying this modulation is not yet clear. We examined the impact of viewing pleasant, neutral, and unpleasant affective pictures on the respiratory-related evoked potential (RREP) elicited by a short inspiratory occlusion in healthy volunteers. Reduced P3 amplitude of the RREP was found for respiratory probes presented when viewing pleasant or unpleasant series, when compared to those presented during the neutral series. Earlier RREP components, such as Nf, P1, N1, and P2, showed no modulation by emotion. The results suggest that emotion impacts the perception of respiratory sensations by reducing the attentional resources available for processing afferent respiratory sensory signals. PMID:20070570

Global warming and ocean stratification: A potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Manoj; von Glasow, Roland; Smith, Robin S.; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

2017-04-01

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m-2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nenes, Athanasios

The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated newmore » parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.« less

Climate change: the potential impact on occupational exposure to pesticides.

PubMed

Gatto, Maria Pia; Cabella, Renato; Gherardi, Monica

2016-01-01

This study investigates the possible influence of global climate change (GCC) on exposure to plant protection products (PPP) in the workplace. The paper has evaluated the main potential relationships between GCC and occupational exposure to pesticides, by highlighting how global warming might affect their future use and by reviewing its possible consequence on workers' exposure. Global warming, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution and proliferation of weeds, the impact of already present insect pests and pathogens and the introduction of new infesting species, could cause a changed use of pesticides in terms of higher amounts, doses and types of products applied, so influencing the human exposure to them during agricultural activities. GCC, in particular heat waves, may also potentially have impact on workers' susceptibility to pesticides absorption. Prevention policies of health in the workplace must be ready to address new risks from occupational exposure to pesticide, presumably different from current risks, since an increased use may be expected.

Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

2016-04-01

Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

Quantifying the impact of the Three Gorges Dam on the thermal dynamics of the Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Huayang; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Huang, Jingzheng; Liu, Zhiyong; Liu, Feng; Toffolon, Marco

2018-05-01

This study examines the impact of the world’s largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), on the thermal dynamics of the Yangtze River (China). The analysis uses long-term observations of river water temperature (RWT) in four stations and reconstructs the RWT that would have occurred in absence of the TGD. Relative to pre-TGD conditions, RWT consistently warmed in the region due to air temperature (AT) increase. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that the TGD significantly affected RWT in the downstream reach. At the closest downstream station (Yichang) to the TGD, the annual cycle of RWT experienced a damped response to AT and a marked seasonal alteration: warming during all seasons except for spring and early summer which were characterized by cooling. Both effects were a direct consequence of the larger thermal inertia of the massive water volume stored in the TGD reservoir, causing the downstream reach to be more thermally resilient. The approach used here to quantify the separate contributions of climate and human interventions on RWT can be used to set scientific guidelines for river management and conservation planning strategies.

Quantifying the impact of standardized assessment and symptom management tools on symptoms associated with cancer-induced anorexia cachexia syndrome.

PubMed

Andrew, Inga M; Waterfield, Kerry; Hildreth, Anthony J; Kirkpatrick, Graeme; Hawkins, Colette

2009-12-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of standardized assessment and management tools on patient symptom scores in cancer-induced anorexia cachexia syndrome (ACS) using a within-group study design. Baseline assessments included the Patient Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) tool and an amended Symptoms and Concerns Checklist (SCC). Symptom management strategies, written for this project, were instigated. Follow-up SCC scores were collected at 2 and 4 weeks. Forty out of 79 patients referred were recruited; 29/79 (36.7%) were too unwell or had died prior to consent. At baseline, the PG-SGA tool revealed 250 active symptoms associated with ACS. Total PG-SGA score was above 9 for all patients. Predominant interventions involved simple dietary advice and prescription of artificial saliva, mouthwash and prokinetic antiemetics. Median total SCC score improved sequentially from 11 at baseline, to 7 and 4 at first and second review, respectively (visit 1 to 2, p = 0.001; visit 1 to 3, p < 0.001; and visit 2 to 3, p = 0.02). We conclude that patients with ACS are recognised late in their disease and have a considerable burden of active symptoms. A structured approach to assessment and management has a significant impact on symptom burden.

Quantifying the sensitivity of ephemeral streams to land disturbance activities in arid ecosystems at the watershed scale.

PubMed

O'Connor, Ben L; Hamada, Yuki; Bowen, Esther E; Grippo, Mark A; Hartmann, Heidi M; Patton, Terri L; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A; Carr, Adrianne E

2014-11-01

Large areas of public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and located in arid regions of the southwestern United States are being considered for the development of utility-scale solar energy facilities. Land-disturbing activities in these desert, alluvium-filled valleys have the potential to adversely affect the hydrologic and ecologic functions of ephemeral streams. Regulation and management of ephemeral streams typically falls under a spectrum of federal, state, and local programs, but scientifically based guidelines for protecting ephemeral streams with respect to land-development activities are largely nonexistent. This study developed an assessment approach for quantifying the sensitivity to land disturbance of ephemeral stream reaches located in proposed solar energy zones (SEZs). The ephemeral stream assessment approach used publicly-available geospatial data on hydrology, topography, surficial geology, and soil characteristics, as well as high-resolution aerial imagery. These datasets were used to inform a professional judgment-based score index of potential land disturbance impacts on selected critical functions of ephemeral streams, including flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitat value, and groundwater recharge. The total sensitivity scores (sum of scores for the critical stream functions of flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitats, and groundwater recharge) were used to identify highly sensitive stream reaches to inform decisions on developable areas in SEZs. Total sensitivity scores typically reflected the scores of the individual stream functions; some exceptions pertain to groundwater recharge and ecological habitats. The primary limitations of this assessment approach were the lack of high-resolution identification of ephemeral stream channels in the existing National Hydrography Dataset, and the lack of mechanistic processes describing potential impacts on ephemeral stream functions at the watershed scale. The

Quantifying the sensitivity of ephemeral streams to land disturbance activities in arid ecosystems at the watershed scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O’Connor, Ben L.; Hamada, Yuki; Bowen, Esther E.

2014-08-17

Large areas of public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management and located in arid regions of the southwestern United States are being considered for the development of utility-scale solar energy facilities. Land-disturbing activities in these desert, alluvium-filled valleys have the potential to adversely affect the hydrologic and ecologic functions of ephemeral streams. Regulation and management of ephemeral streams typically falls under a spectrum of federal, state, and local programs, but scientifically based guidelines for protecting ephemeral streams with respect to land-development activities are largely nonexistent. This study developed an assessment approach for quantifying the sensitivity to land disturbancemore » of ephemeral stream reaches located in proposed solar energy zones (SEZs). The ephemeral stream assessment approach used publicly-available geospatial data on hydrology, topography, surficial geology, and soil characteristics, as well as highresolution aerial imagery. These datasets were used to inform a professional judgment-based score index of potential land disturbance impacts on selected critical functions of ephemeral streams, including flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitat value, and groundwater recharge. The total sensitivity scores (sum of scores for the critical stream functions of flow and sediment conveyance, ecological habitats, and groundwater recharge) were used to identify highly sensitive stream reaches to inform decisions on developable areas in SEZs. Total sensitivity scores typically reflected the scores of the individual stream functions; some exceptions pertain to groundwater recharge and ecological habitats. The primary limitations of this assessment approach were the lack of high-resolution identification of ephemeral stream channels in the existing National Hydrography Dataset, and the lack of mechanistic processes describing potential impacts on ephemeral stream functions at the watershed scale

Quantifying Scheduling Challenges for Exascale System Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mondragon, Oscar; Bridges, Patrick G.; Jones, Terry R

2015-01-01

The move towards high-performance computing (HPC) ap- plications comprised of coupled codes and the need to dra- matically reduce data movement is leading to a reexami- nation of time-sharing vs. space-sharing in HPC systems. In this paper, we discuss and begin to quantify the perfor- mance impact of a move away from strict space-sharing of nodes for HPC applications. Specifically, we examine the po- tential performance cost of time-sharing nodes between ap- plication components, we determine whether a simple coor- dinated scheduling mechanism can address these problems, and we research how suitable simple constraint-based opti- mization techniques are for solvingmore » scheduling challenges in this regime. Our results demonstrate that current general- purpose HPC system software scheduling and resource al- location systems are subject to significant performance de- ciencies which we quantify for six representative applica- tions. Based on these results, we discuss areas in which ad- ditional research is needed to meet the scheduling challenges of next-generation HPC systems.« less

Quantifying the potential export flows of used electronic products in Macau: a case study of PCs.

PubMed

Yu, Danfeng; Song, Qingbin; Wang, Zhishi; Li, Jinhui; Duan, Huabo; Wang, Jinben; Wang, Chao; Wang, Xu

2017-12-01

The used electronic product (UEP) has attracted the worldwide attentions because part of e-waste may be exported from developed countries to developing countries in the name of UEP. On the basis of large foreign trade data of electronic products (e-products), this study adopted the trade data approach (TDA) to quantify the potential exports of UEP in Macau, taking a case study of personal computers (PCs). The results show that the desktop mainframes, LCD monitors, and CRT monitors have more low-unit-value trades with higher trade volumes in the past 10 years, while the laptop and tablet PCs, as the newer technologies, owned the higher ratios of the high-unit-value trades. During the period of 2005-2015, the total mean exports for used laptop and tablet PCs, desktop mainframes, and LCD monitors were approximately 18,592, 79,957, and 43,177 units, respectively, while the possible export volume of used CRT monitors was higher, up to 430,098 units in 2000-2010. Noticed that these potential export volumes could be the lower bound because not all used PCs may be shipped using the PC trade code. For all the four kinds of used PCs, the majority (61.6-98.82%) of the export volumes have gone to Hong Kong, followed by Mainland China and Taiwan. Since 2011, there was no CRT monitor export; however, the other kinds of used PC exports will still exist in Macau in the future. The outcomes are helpful to understand and manage the current export situations of used products in Macau, and can also provide a reference for other countries and regions.

Quantifying the impact of lithology upon the mechanical properties of rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherley, Dion

2013-04-01

The physical characteristics of rock, its lithology, undoubtedly influences its deformation under natural or engineering loads. Mineral texture, micro-damage, joints, bedding planes, inclusions, unconformities and faults are all postulated to alter the mechanical response of rock on different scales and under different stressing conditions. Whilst laboratory studies have elucidated some aspects of the relationship between lithology and mechanical properties, these small-scale results are difficult to extrapolate to lithospheric scales. To augment laboratory-derived knowledge, physics-based numerical modelling is a promising avenue [3]. Bonded particle models implemented using the Discrete Element Method (DEM [1]) are a practical numerical laboratory to investigate the interplay between lithology and the mechanical response of rock specimens [4]. Numerical rock specimens are represented as an assembly of indivisible spherical particles connected to nearest neighbours via brittle-elastic beams which impart forces and moments upon one-another as particles move relative to each other. By applying boundary forces and solving Newton's Laws for each particle, elastic deformation and brittle failure may be simulated [2]. Each beam interaction is defined by four model parameters: Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, cohesive strength and internal friction angle. Beam interactions in different subvolumes of the specimen are assigned different parameters to model different rock types or mineral assemblages. Micro-cracks, joints, unconformities and faults are geometrically incorporated by fitting particles to either side of triangulated surfaces [5]. The utility of this modelling approach is verified by reproducing analytical results from fracture mechanics (Griffith crack propagation and wing-crack formation) and results of controlled laboratory investigations. To quantify the impact of particular lithologic structures on mechanical response, a range of control experiments are

Quantifying Fire's Impacts on Total and Pyrogenic Carbon Stocks in Mixed-Conifer Forests: Results from Pre- and Post-Fire Measurements in Active Wildfire Incidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miesel, J. R.; Reiner, A. L.; Ewell, C. M.; Sanderman, J.; Maestrini, B.; Adkins, J.

2016-12-01

Widespread US fire suppression policy has contributed to an accumulation of vegetation in many western forests relative to historic conditions, and these changes can exacerbate wildfire severity and carbon (C) emissions. Serious concern exists about positive feedbacks between wildfire emissions and global climate; however, fires not only release C from terrestrial to atmospheric pools, they also create "black" or pyrogenic C (PyC) which contributes to longer-term C stability. Our objective was to quantify wildfire impacts on aboveground and belowground total C and PyC stocks in California mixed-conifer forests. We worked with incident management teams to access five active wildfires to establish and measure plots within days before and after fire. We measured pre- and post-fire aboveground forest structure and woody fuels to calculate aboveground biomass, biomass C, and PyC, and we collected pre- and post-fire forest floor and 0-5 cm mineral soil samples to measure belowground C and PyC stocks. Our preliminary results show that fire had minimal impact on the number of trees per hectare, whereas C losses from the tree layer occurred via consumption of foliage, and PyC gain occurred in tree bark. Fire released 54% to 100% of surface fuel C. In the forest floor layer, we observed 33 to 100% C loss, whereas changes in PyC stocks ranged from 100% loss to 186% gain relative to pre-fire samples. In general, fire had minimal to no impact on 0-5 cm mineral soil C. We will present relationships between total C, PyC and post-fire C and N dynamics in one of the five wildfire sites. Our data are unique because they represent nearly immediate pre- and post-fire measurements in major wildfires in a widespread western U.S. forest type. This research advances understanding of the role of fire on forest C fluxes and C sequestration potential as PyC.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Quantifying Adoption Rates and Energy Savings Over Time for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanes, Rebecca; Carpenter Petri, Alberta C; Riddle, Matt

Energy-efficient manufacturing technologies can reduce energy consumption and lower operating costs for an individual manufacturing facility, but increased process complexity and the resulting risk of disruption means that manufacturers may be reluctant to adopt such technologies. In order to quantify potential energy savings at scales larger than a single facility, it is necessary to account for how quickly and how widely the technology will be adopted by manufacturers. This work develops a methodology for estimating energy-efficient manufacturing technology adoption rates using quantitative, objectively measurable technology characteristics, including energetic, economic and technical criteria. Twelve technology characteristics are considered, and each characteristicmore » is assigned an importance weight that reflects its impact on the overall technology adoption rate. Technology characteristic data and importance weights are used to calculate the adoption score, a number between 0 and 1 that represents how quickly the technology is likely to be adopted. The adoption score is then used to estimate parameters for the Bass diffusion curve, which quantifies the change in the number of new technology adopters in a population over time. Finally, energy savings at the sector level are calculated over time by multiplying the number of new technology adopters at each time step with the technology's facility-level energy savings. The proposed methodology will be applied to five state-of-the-art energy-efficient technologies in the carbon fiber composites sector, with technology data obtained from the Department of Energy's 2016 bandwidth study. Because the importance weights used in estimating the Bass curve parameters are subjective, a sensitivity analysis will be performed on the weights to obtain a range of parameters for each technology. The potential energy savings for each technology and the rate at which each technology is adopted in the sector are quantified

Quantifying capital goods for collection and transport of waste.

PubMed

Brogaard, Line K; Christensen, Thomas H

2012-12-01

The capital goods for collection and transport of waste were quantified for different types of containers (plastic containers, cubes and steel containers) and an 18-tonnes compacting collection truck. The data were collected from producers and vendors of the bins and the truck. The service lifetime and the capacity of the goods were also assessed. Environmental impact assessment of the production of the capital goods revealed that, per tonne of waste handled, the truck had the largest contribution followed by the steel container. Large high density polyethylene (HDPE) containers had the lowest impact per tonne of waste handled. The impact of producing the capital goods for waste collection and transport cannot be neglected as the capital goods dominate (>85%) the categories human-toxicity (non-cancer and cancer), ecotoxicity, resource depletion and aquatic eutrophication, but also play a role (>13%) within the other impact categories when compared with the impacts from combustion of fuels for the collection and transport of the waste, when a transport distance of 25 km was assumed.

Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

PubMed

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-06-10

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Haberl, Helmut; Erb, K Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Gaube, Veronika; Bondeau, Alberte; Plutzar, Christoph; Gingrich, Simone; Lucht, Wolfgang; Fischer-Kowalski, Marina

2007-07-31

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), the aggregate impact of land use on biomass available each year in ecosystems, is a prominent measure of the human domination of the biosphere. We present a comprehensive assessment of global HANPP based on vegetation modeling, agricultural and forestry statistics, and geographical information systems data on land use, land cover, and soil degradation that localizes human impact on ecosystems. We found an aggregate global HANPP value of 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of potential net primary productivity, of which 53% was contributed by harvest, 40% by land-use-induced productivity changes, and 7% by human-induced fires. This is a remarkable impact on the biosphere caused by just one species. We present maps quantifying human-induced changes in trophic energy flows in ecosystems that illustrate spatial patterns in the human domination of ecosystems, thus emphasizing land use as a pervasive factor of global importance. Land use transforms earth's terrestrial surface, resulting in changes in biogeochemical cycles and in the ability of ecosystems to deliver services critical to human well being. The results suggest that large-scale schemes to substitute biomass for fossil fuels should be viewed cautiously because massive additional pressures on ecosystems might result from increased biomass harvest.

Subcontinental impacts of an invasive tree disease on forest structure and dynamics

Treesearch

Jeffrey R. Garnas; Matthew P. Ayres; Andrew M. Liebhold; Celia. Evans

2011-01-01

Introduced pests and pathogens are a major source of disturbance to ecosystems world-wide. The famous examples have produced dramatic reductions in host abundance, including virtual extirpation, but most introductions have more subtle impacts that are hard to quantify but are potentially at least as important due to the pathogens' effects on host reproduction,...

Potential Economic Impacts from Offshore Wind in the Gulf of Mexico Region (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flores, F.; Keyser, D.; Tegen, S.

2014-01-01

Offshore wind is a clean, renewable source of energy and can be an economic driver in the United States. To better understand the employment opportunities and other potential regional economic impacts from offshore wind development, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded research that focuses on four regions of the country. The studies use multiple scenarios with various local job and domestic manufacturing content assumptions. Each regional study uses the new offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This fact sheet summarizes the potential economic impacts for the Gulf of Mexicomore » region.« less

78 FR 34093 - An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-06

... scientific and technical information presented in the report, the realistic mining scenario used, the data... Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... document titled, ``An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon Ecosystems of Bristol Bay, Alaska...

Beach disturbance caused by off-road vehicles (ORVs) on sandy shores: relationship with traffic volumes and a new method to quantify impacts using image-based data acquisition and analysis.

PubMed

Schlacher, Thomas A; Morrison, Jennifer M

2008-09-01

Vehicles cause environmental damage on sandy beaches, including physical displacement and compaction of the sediment. Such physical habitat disturbance provides a relatively simple indicator of ORV-related impacts that is potentially useful in monitoring the efficacy of beach traffic management interventions; such interventions also require data on the relationship between traffic volumes and the resulting levels of impact. Here we determined how the extent of beach disturbance is linked to traffic volumes and tested the utility of image-based data acquisition to monitor beach surfaces. Experimental traffic application resulted in disturbance effects ranging from 15% of the intertidal zone being rutted after 10 vehicle passes to 85% after 100 passes. A new camera platform, specifically designed for beach surveys, was field tested and the resulting image-based data compared with traditional line-intercept methods and in situ measurements using quadrats. All techniques gave similar results in terms of quantifying the relationship between traffic intensity and beach disturbance. However, the physical, in situ measurements, using quadrats, generally produced higher (+4.68%) estimates than photos taken with the camera platform coupled with off-site image analysis. Image-based methods can be more costly, but in politically and socially sensitive monitoring applications, such as ORV use on sandy beaches, they are superior in providing unbiased and permanent records of environmental conditions in relation to anthropogenic pressures.

Surveys for sensitivity to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butterfield, A. J.

1979-01-01

The surveys for sensitivities to fibers and potential impacts from fiber induced failures begins with a review of the survey work completed to date and then describes an impact study involving four industrial installations located in Virginia. The observations and results from both the surveys and the study provide guidelines for future efforts. The survey work was done with three broad objectives: (1) identify the pieces of potentially vulnerable equipment as candidates for test; (2) support the transfer function work by gaining an understanding of how fibers could get into a building; and (3) support the economic analysis by understanding what would happen if fibers precipitated a failure in an item of equipment.

Potential impact of fireworks on respiratory health

PubMed Central

Gouder, Caroline; Montefort, Stephen

2014-01-01

The world-wide use of fireworks with their consequent detrimental effect on the air quality is widely recognized with elevated ambient air levels of particulate matter and its several metallic components and gases identified in several studies carried out during such events. Exposed individuals may be at risk following inhalation of such produced pollutants. This review focuses on the impact of fireworks on air quality and the potential effect of fireworks on the respiratory system of healthy individuals as well as those suffering from underlying respiratory diseases, particularly asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This applies not only to spectators including children but also to pyrotechnicians themselves. An extensive Medline search revealed that a strong evidence of the impact of fireworks on respiratory health is lacking in susceptible as well as healthy individuals with no formal studies on COPD or asthma, other than a few case reports in the latter. The implementation of global strategies to control the use of fireworks and hence improve air quality could possibly reduce their likely detrimental effect on human respiratory health in exposed individuals, but clearly a more targeted research is needed. PMID:25378846

Neural basis for generalized quantifier comprehension.

PubMed

McMillan, Corey T; Clark, Robin; Moore, Peachie; Devita, Christian; Grossman, Murray

2005-01-01

Generalized quantifiers like "all cars" are semantically well understood, yet we know little about their neural representation. Our model of quantifier processing includes a numerosity device, operations that combine number elements and working memory. Semantic theory posits two types of quantifiers: first-order quantifiers identify a number state (e.g. "at least 3") and higher-order quantifiers additionally require maintaining a number state actively in working memory for comparison with another state (e.g. "less than half"). We used BOLD fMRI to test the hypothesis that all quantifiers recruit inferior parietal cortex associated with numerosity, while only higher-order quantifiers recruit prefrontal cortex associated with executive resources like working memory. Our findings showed that first-order and higher-order quantifiers both recruit right inferior parietal cortex, suggesting that a numerosity component contributes to quantifier comprehension. Moreover, only probes of higher-order quantifiers recruited right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, suggesting involvement of executive resources like working memory. We also observed activation of thalamus and anterior cingulate that may be associated with selective attention. Our findings are consistent with a large-scale neural network centered in frontal and parietal cortex that supports comprehension of generalized quantifiers.

An Assessment of Potential Mining Impacts on Salmon ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Bristol Bay watershed in southwestern Alaska supports the largest sockeye salmon fishery in the world, is home to 25 federally recognized tribal governments, and contains large mineral resources. The potential for large-scale mining activities in the watershed has raised concerns about the impact of mining on the sustainability of Bristol Bay’s world-class commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries and the future of Alaska Native tribes in the watershed who have maintained a salmon-based culture and subsistence-based way of life for at least 4,000 years. The purpose of this assessment is to provide a characterization of the biological and mineral resources of the Bristol Bay watershed, increase understanding of the potential impacts of large-scale mining on the region’s fish resources, and inform future government decisions related to protecting and maintaining the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the watershed. It will also serve as a technical resource for the public, tribes, and governments who must consider how best to address the challenges of mining and ecological protection in the Bristol Bay watershed. The purpose of this assessment is to understand how future large-scale mining may affect water quality and the Bristol Bay salmon fisheries, which includes the largest wild sockeye salmon fishery in the world. Bristol Bay, Alaska, is home to a salmon fishery that is of significant economic and subsistence value to the peopl

International funding agencies: potential leaders of impact evaluation in protected areas?

PubMed Central

Craigie, Ian D.; Barnes, Megan D.; Geldmann, Jonas; Woodley, Stephen

2015-01-01

Globally, protected areas are the most commonly used tools to halt biodiversity loss. Yet, some are failing to adequately conserve the biodiversity they contain. There is an urgent need for knowledge on how to make them function more effectively. Impact evaluation methods provide a set of tools that could yield this knowledge. However, rigorous outcome-focused impact evaluation is not yet used as extensively as it could be in protected area management. We examine the role of international protected area funding agencies in facilitating the use of impact evaluation. These agencies are influential stakeholders as they allocate hundreds of millions of dollars annually to support protected areas, creating a unique opportunity to shape how the conservation funds are spent globally. We identify key barriers to the use of impact evaluation, detail how large funders are uniquely placed to overcome many of these, and highlight the potential benefits if impact evaluation is used more extensively. PMID:26460135

International funding agencies: potential leaders of impact evaluation in protected areas?

PubMed

Craigie, Ian D; Barnes, Megan D; Geldmann, Jonas; Woodley, Stephen

2015-11-05

Globally, protected areas are the most commonly used tools to halt biodiversity loss. Yet, some are failing to adequately conserve the biodiversity they contain. There is an urgent need for knowledge on how to make them function more effectively. Impact evaluation methods provide a set of tools that could yield this knowledge. However, rigorous outcome-focused impact evaluation is not yet used as extensively as it could be in protected area management. We examine the role of international protected area funding agencies in facilitating the use of impact evaluation. These agencies are influential stakeholders as they allocate hundreds of millions of dollars annually to support protected areas, creating a unique opportunity to shape how the conservation funds are spent globally. We identify key barriers to the use of impact evaluation, detail how large funders are uniquely placed to overcome many of these, and highlight the potential benefits if impact evaluation is used more extensively. © 2015 The Author(s).

Quantifying pruning impacts on olive tree architecture and annual canopy growth by using UAV-based 3D modelling.

PubMed

Jiménez-Brenes, F M; López-Granados, F; de Castro, A I; Torres-Sánchez, J; Serrano, N; Peña, J M

2017-01-01

Tree pruning is a costly practice with important implications for crop harvest and nutrition, pest and disease control, soil protection and irrigation strategies. Investigations on tree pruning usually involve tedious on-ground measurements of the primary tree crown dimensions, which also might generate inconsistent results due to the irregular geometry of the trees. As an alternative to intensive field-work, this study shows a innovative procedure based on combining unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology and advanced object-based image analysis (OBIA) methodology for multi-temporal three-dimensional (3D) monitoring of hundreds of olive trees that were pruned with three different strategies (traditional, adapted and mechanical pruning). The UAV images were collected before pruning, after pruning and a year after pruning, and the impacts of each pruning treatment on the projected canopy area, tree height and crown volume of every tree were quantified and analyzed over time. The full procedure described here automatically identified every olive tree on the orchard and computed their primary 3D dimensions on the three study dates with high accuracy in the most cases. Adapted pruning was generally the most aggressive treatment in terms of the area and volume (the trees decreased by 38.95 and 42.05% on average, respectively), followed by trees under traditional pruning (33.02 and 35.72% on average, respectively). Regarding the tree heights, mechanical pruning produced a greater decrease (12.15%), and these values were minimal for the other two treatments. The tree growth over one year was affected by the pruning severity and by the type of pruning treatment, i.e., the adapted-pruning trees experienced higher growth than the trees from the other two treatments when pruning intensity was low (<10%), similar to the traditionally pruned trees at moderate intensity (10-30%), and lower than the other trees when the pruning intensity was higher than 30% of the crown volume

Prosecution of non-disclosure of HIV status: Potential impact on HIV testing and transmission among HIV-negative men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Kesler, Maya A; Kaul, Rupert; Loutfy, Mona; Myers, Ted; Brunetta, Jason; Remis, Robert S; Gesink, Dionne

2018-01-01

Non-disclosure criminal prosecutions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are increasing, even though transmission risk is low when effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) is used. Reduced HIV testing may reduce the impact of HIV "test and treat" strategies. We aimed to quantify the potential impact of non-disclosure prosecutions on HIV testing and transmission among MSM. MSM attending an HIV and primary care clinic in Toronto completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview questionnaire. HIV-negative participants were asked concern over non-disclosure prosecution altered their likelihood of HIV testing. Responses were characterized using cross-tabulations and bivariate logistic regressions. Flow charts modelled how changes in HIV testing behaviour impacted HIV transmission rates controlling for ART use, condom use and HIV status disclosure. 150 HIV-negative MSM were recruited September 2010 to June 2012. 7% (9/124) were less or much less likely to be tested for HIV due to concern over future prosecution. Bivariate regression showed no obvious socio/sexual demographic characteristics associated with decreased willingness of HIV testing to due concern about prosecution. Subsequent models estimated that this 7% reduction in testing could cause an 18.5% increase in community HIV transmission, 73% of which was driven by the failure of HIV-positive but undiagnosed MSM to access care and reduce HIV transmission risk by using ART. Fear of prosecution over HIV non-disclosure was reported to reduce HIV testing willingness by a minority of HIV-negative MSM in Toronto; however, this reduction has the potential to significantly increase HIV transmission at the community level which has important public health implications.

Prosecution of non-disclosure of HIV status: Potential impact on HIV testing and transmission among HIV-negative men who have sex with men

PubMed Central

Kaul, Rupert; Loutfy, Mona; Myers, Ted; Brunetta, Jason; Gesink, Dionne

2018-01-01

Background Non-disclosure criminal prosecutions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are increasing, even though transmission risk is low when effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) is used. Reduced HIV testing may reduce the impact of HIV “test and treat” strategies. We aimed to quantify the potential impact of non-disclosure prosecutions on HIV testing and transmission among MSM. Methods MSM attending an HIV and primary care clinic in Toronto completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview questionnaire. HIV-negative participants were asked concern over non-disclosure prosecution altered their likelihood of HIV testing. Responses were characterized using cross-tabulations and bivariate logistic regressions. Flow charts modelled how changes in HIV testing behaviour impacted HIV transmission rates controlling for ART use, condom use and HIV status disclosure. Results 150 HIV-negative MSM were recruited September 2010 to June 2012. 7% (9/124) were less or much less likely to be tested for HIV due to concern over future prosecution. Bivariate regression showed no obvious socio/sexual demographic characteristics associated with decreased willingness of HIV testing to due concern about prosecution. Subsequent models estimated that this 7% reduction in testing could cause an 18.5% increase in community HIV transmission, 73% of which was driven by the failure of HIV-positive but undiagnosed MSM to access care and reduce HIV transmission risk by using ART. Conclusions Fear of prosecution over HIV non-disclosure was reported to reduce HIV testing willingness by a minority of HIV-negative MSM in Toronto; however, this reduction has the potential to significantly increase HIV transmission at the community level which has important public health implications. PMID:29489890

The Lure of Casino Gambling and Its Potential Impact on College Students in Mississippi.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, E. Ann; Burroughs, Susie W.; Dabit, Jean S.; Hambrick, Rosalind S.; Theriot, Patricia B.

1997-01-01

Investigates the lure and potential impact of casino gambling on college students in Mississippi. Findings suggest that casino gambling may significantly impact college students in regard to financial management, alcohol consumption, academic progress, and behavioral changes. (MKA)

Impacts of drainage water management on subsurface drain flow, nitrate concentration, and nitrate loads in Indiana

EPA Science Inventory

Drainage water management is a conservation practice that has the potential to reduce drainage outflow and nitrate (NO3) loss from agricultural fields while maintaining or improving crop yields. The goal of this study was to quantify the impact of drainage water management on dra...

Wildlife-livestock interactions in a western rangeland setting: quantifying disease-relevant contacts

Treesearch

Heinrich zu Dohna; Dannele E. Peck; Bruce K. Johnson; Aaron Reeves; Brant A. Schumaker

2014-01-01

Disease transmission between wild ungulates and domestic livestock is an important and challenging animal health issue. The potential for disease transmission between wildlife and livestock is notoriously difficult to estimate. The first step for estimating the potential for between-species disease transmission is to quantify proximity between individuals of different...

Micro and macroscopic investigation to quantify tillage impact on soil hydrodynamic behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, E.; Roisin, C.; Plougonven, E.; Deraedt, D.; Léonard, A.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

H1 and H2 for both management practices: 100cm3 samples were used to establish pF curves with the Richards procedure, and 35cm3 samples were used for X-ray microtomography investigation. Samples for microtomography were air-dried at 40°C in order to empty meso- and macroporosity and then scanned using a Skyscan-1172 high-resolution desktop micro-CT system (Skyscan, Kontich, Belgium). Macroscopic measurements show consistent results: penetrometry profiles confirm the presence of two different horizons for RT, with a permeable superficial horizon between 0 and 10cm and a compacted subjacent horizon. Despite the long-term experiment, the old plough pan is still observed. The superficial horizon is equivalent in terms of pF curves to CT. The second horizon in RT shows significant differences with CT: porosity and especially effective porosity are greater for CT than RT. Infiltration tests confirm these reports with a higher conductivity for CT than RT. In fact, the first permeable horizon for RT is thin and the second horizon impacts vertical infiltration. These observations will be completed with microtomograms analysis. Pore size distribution, but particularly morphological parameters like eccentricity, orientation, connectivity and anisotropy of the pore network will be quantified and connected with macroscopic measurements.

Intraseasonal to interannual variations in the tropical wave activity revealed in reanalyses and their potential impact on the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young-Ha; Yoo, Changhyun

2017-04-01

We investigate activities of tropical waves represented in reanalysis products. The wave activities are quantified by the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux at 100 hPa, after decomposed into the following four components: equatorially trapped Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-gravity waves, gravity waves, and Rossby waves. Monthly EP fluxes of the four waves exhibit considerable temporal variations at intraseasonal and interannual, along with seasonal, time scales. These variations are discussed with the tropical large-scale variabilities, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation, and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We find that during boreal winter, the interannual variation of Kelvin wave activity is in phase with that of the MJO amplitude, while such a simultaneous variation cannot be seen in other seasons. The gravity wave is dominated by a semi-annual cycle, while the departure from its semi-annual cycle is largely correlated with the QBO phase in the stratosphere. Potential impacts of the variations in the wave activity upon the QBO properties will be assessed using a simple one-dimensional QBO model.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species.

PubMed

Akçakaya, H Resit; Bennett, Elizabeth L; Brooks, Thomas M; Grace, Molly K; Heath, Anna; Hedges, Simon; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Keith, David A; Long, Barney; Mallon, David P; Meijaard, Erik; Milner-Gulland, E J; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Rodriguez, Jon Paul; Stephenson, P J; Stuart, Simon N; Young, Richard P

2018-03-26

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action. © 2018 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

The impact of potential political security level on international tourism

Treesearch

Young-Rae Kim; Chang Huh; Seung Hyun Kim

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of potential political security in an effort to fill in two foregoing research gaps in international tourism. To investigate the relationship between political security and international tourism, a simple regression model was employed. Secondary data were collected from a variety of sources, such as international...

Quantifying Riverscape Connectivity with Graph Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbonneau, P.; Milledge, D.; Sinha, R.; Tandon, S. K.

2013-12-01

Fluvial catchments convey fluxes of water, sediment, nutrients and aquatic biota. At continental scales, crustal topography defines the overall path of channels whilst at local scales depositional and/or erosional features generally determine the exact path of a channel. Furthermore, constructions such as dams, for either water abstraction or hydropower, often have a significant impact on channel networks.The concept of ';connectivity' is commonly invoked when conceptualising the structure of a river network.This concept is easy to grasp but there have been uneven efforts across the environmental sciences to actually quantify connectivity. Currently there have only been a few studies reporting quantitative indices of connectivity in river sciences, notably, in the study of avulsion processes. However, the majority of current work describing some form of environmental connectivity in a quantitative manner is in the field of landscape ecology. Driven by the need to quantify habitat fragmentation, landscape ecologists have returned to graph theory. Within this formal setting, landscape ecologists have successfully developed a range of indices which can model connectivity loss. Such formal connectivity metrics are currently needed for a range of applications in fluvial sciences. One of the most urgent needs relates to dam construction. In the developed world, hydropower development has generally slowed and in many countries, dams are actually being removed. However, this is not the case in the developing world where hydropower is seen as a key element to low-emissions power-security. For example, several dam projects are envisaged in Himalayan catchments in the next 2 decades. This region is already under severe pressure from climate change and urbanisation, and a better understanding of the network fragmentation which can be expected in this system is urgently needed. In this paper, we apply and adapt connectivity metrics from landscape ecology. We then examine the

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W.

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due tomore » expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Quantifying the impact of an upwelling filament on the physical-chemical-biological interactions off SW Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cravo, A.; Sanchez, R.; Monteiro, C.; Cardeira, S.; Madureira, M.; Rita, F.; Relvas, P.

2017-12-01

Upwelling filaments are mesoscale structures of cold water that stretch seaward in a tongue-like shape with origin in the coastal upwelling zone. Filaments off the Iberian Peninsula are recurrent, showing similarities with those in the Californian coast. The Cape São Vicente, the SW tip of the Iberian Peninsula, is the root of recurrent filaments observed in the satellite imagery during the upwelling season. However, the understanding of its physical and chemical impact on the biological productivity is rather limited. There, a relatively small filament ( 80 km long) was investigated through remote sensing and in situ multidisciplinary observations during an upwelling favourable wind relaxation event, but just after an intense upwelling period. A total of 42 CTD+Rosette casts up to 400 m depth were distributed on an almost regular grid of 15 km mean spacing guided by guided by satellite SST imagery transmitted to the ship in near-real time. The parameters sampled during the sea campaign included: velocity field sampled along the ship track through a hull-mounted 38 kHz RDI ADCP, meteorological variables, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, silicate, cadmium, lead and zinc. The extent of the impact of the filament was evaluated by quantifying the cross-shelf transports of several properties. The amounts conveyed by the filament were much stronger than those expected by the wind-driven Ekman mechanism, showing that it represents an efficient feature for the exchange of water, dissolved and particulate matter from the productive shelf towards the oligotrophic offshore region. Considering the periods of strong upwelling events and the extent of their duration along the year, the amounts of exported matter will certainly enhance the biological productivity of these waters, including its fisheries. These filament data contribute to better understand the physical-chemical-biological interactions of this regional ecosystem.

Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2017-01-01

The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

Quantifying Trophic Interactions and Carbon Flow in Louisiana Salt Marshes Using Multiple Biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polito, M. J.; Lopez-Duarte, P. C.; Olin, J.; Johnson, J. J.; Able, K.; Martin, C. W.; Fodrie, J.; Hooper-Bui, L. M.; Taylor, S.; Stouffer, P.; Roberts, B. J.; Rabalais, N. N.; Jensen, O.

2017-12-01

Salt marshes are critical habitats for many species in the northern Gulf of Mexico. However, given their complex nature, quantifying trophic linkages and the flow of carbon through salt marsh food webs is challenging. This gap in our understanding of food web structure and function limits our ability to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic stressors on salt marsh ecosystems. For example, 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill had the potential to alter trophic and energy pathways. Even so, our ability to evaluate its effects on Louisiana salt marsh food webs was limited by a poor basis for comparison of the pre-spill baseline food web. To be better equipped to measure significant alterations in salt marsh ecosystems in the future, we quantified trophic interactions at two marsh sites in Barataria Bay, LA in May and October of 2015. Trophic structure and carbon flow across 52 species of saltmarsh primary producers and consumers were examined through a combination of three approaches: bulk tissue stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S), dietary fatty acid analysis (FAA), and compound-specific stable isotope analysis of essential amino acids (δ13C EAA). Bulk stable isotope analysis indicated similar trophic diversity between sites and seasons with the use of aquatic resources increasing concomitantly with trophic level. FAA and δ13C EAA biomarkers revealed that marsh organisms were largely divided into two groups: those that primarily derive carbon from terrestrial C4 grasses, and those that predominately derive carbon from a combination of phytoplankton and benthic microalgal sources. Differences in trophic structure and carbon flow were minimal between seasons and sites that were variably impacted by the DWH spill. These data on salt marsh ecosystem structure will be useful to inform future injury assessments and restoration initiatives.

Quantifying human impact on hydrological drought using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huijgevoort, Marjolein; Chaney, Nathaniel; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena; Milly, Chris

2017-04-01

Predicting the human impact on the present and future hydrological cycle remains a significant scientific challenge. Anthropogenic impact includes water management practices like diverting water for irrigation, abstraction of groundwater, and reservoirs. Hydrological extremes, in particular, are heavily affected by water management practices, due to the existing stress on the system during droughts and floods. Therefore, to prepare adaptation plans for hydrological extremes in the future, it is essential to account for water management and other human influences in Earth System Models. In this study we have implemented water management practices in the state-of-the-art GFDL land model, which includes terrestrial water, energy, and carbon balances. Both irrigation practices and reservoirs have been added in the land surface model component of the model. Irrigation amounts are determined from the soil water balance, the evaporative demand of the vegetation and fractional coverage of croplands. The resulting water demand is fulfilled by abstractions from surface water and groundwater. Reservoir outflow is dynamically coupled to the downstream water demand and available reservoir storage. Retrospective model simulations over the contiguous United States indicate a strong human influence on hydrological drought. A water management attribution analysis shows a significant impact on the water availability, mostly in the Midwest of the United States and California. Implementation of reservoirs alters the flow regime, thereby decreasing the short-term drought impact, however, in the case of multi-year drought, impacts are delayed due to the dependency on the reservoir outflow. Irrigation, on the other hand, decreases the water availability in rivers due to increased evapotranspiration leading to a higher drought impact. The average increase in evapotranspiration amounted up to 2 mm/day for cropland areas in California and Texas. Overall, the results show the importance of

Identification and Assessment of Potential Water Quality Impact Factors for Drinking-Water Reservoirs

PubMed Central

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-01-01

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources. PMID:24919129

Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

2017-06-01

Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring.

PubMed

Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

2017-06-01

Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

Creative potential: mental well-being impact assessment of the Liverpool 2008 European capital of culture programme.

PubMed

West, H M; Scott-Samuel, A

2010-04-01

Culture has a number of potential impacts upon health and well-being. This project was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of the Liverpool 2008 European Capital of Culture programme upon mental well-being, so that positive effects can be maximized and negative impacts reduced, in order that health and well-being are promoted and inequalities are reduced. A mental well-being impact assessment (MWIA) toolkit has been developed, and was piloted in this study. MWIA uses a sequence of procedures designed to systematically assess the effect of projects, programmes and policies upon people's mental well-being and health. The MWIA toolkit was used to explore the potential positive and negative impacts on mental well-being of a sample of projects and policies from the European Capital of Culture programme. This was achieved by asking stakeholders to answer a series of questions, holding participative workshops, constructing a community profile and reviewing the research literature. Recommendations were developed which aim to enhance the impact of the programme on people's mental well-being. As expected, both positive and negative impacts of the European Capital of Culture programme on mental well-being were identified. Fourteen themes were identified as emerging from the workshops, screening and reviewing the research evidence. Based on these data, 33 recommendations were developed by the project steering group and have been presented to the Liverpool Culture Company. The process of conducting the assessment, particularly its participatory nature and its awareness-raising role, had impacts upon mental well-being. The findings demonstrate the potential for the Culture Company programme to have a profound impact upon mental well-being, and highlight areas which could be addressed to optimize the impact of the programme. 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Environmental Impacts of Army Laser Operations: An Overview

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

Cecilia Doughty for her professional and timely editorial assistance and to Lisa North for her exemplary...8217"- •- .. ... . . ... .. ........ .. ....... .. . ... ° • ... .. ... .., ... . . .. ... .. .. ... .......... ... .. ... ..,. j .. ... .. . .. ... ... f ... ... ..... . ........ . .,C ... , SI,,I POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ARMY LASER OPERATIONS AN OVERVIEW 1. INTRO...Sciences Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico 88002. 10 -~~ - Iz2 L 0 *U 4 v *; LL -00 cc . J 0~ Li FI. !:aa al Go 1 I U.U ofc W u o -

Quantifying hurricane-induced coastal changes using topographic lidar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Krabill, William; Swift, Robert; Brock, John

2001-01-01

USGS and NASA are investigating the impacts of hurricanes on the United States East and Gulf of Mexico coasts with the ultimate objective of improving predictive capabilities. The cornerstone of our effort is to use topographic lidar to acquire pre- and post-storm topography to quantify changes to beaches and dunes. With its rapidity of acquisition and very high density, lidar is revolutionizing the. quantification of storm-induced coastal change. Lidar surveys have been acquired for the East and Gulf coasts to serve as pre-storm baselines. Within a few days of a hurricane landfall anywhere within the study area, the impacted area will be resurveyed to detect changes. For example, during 1999, Hurricane Dennis impacted the northern North Carolina coast. Along a 70-km length of coast between Cape Hatteras and Oregon Inlet, there was large variability in the types of impacts including overwash, dune erosion, dune stability, and even accretion at the base of dunes. These types of impacts were arranged in coherent patterns that repeated along the coast over scales of tens of kilometers. Preliminary results suggest the variability is related to the influence of offshore shoals that induce longshore gradients in wave energy by wave refraction.

Impact of Diagenesis on Biosignature Preservation Potential in Playa Lake Evaporites in Verde Formation, Arizona: Implications for Mars Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolyar, S.; Farmer, J. D.

2015-12-01

Major priorities for Mars science include assessing the preservation potential and impact of diagenesis on biosignature preservation in aqueous sedimentary environments. We address these priorities with field and lab studies of playa evaporites of the Verde Formation (upper Pliocene) in Arizona. Evaporites studied include bottom-nucleated halite and displacive growth gypsum in magnesite-rich mudstone. These lithotypes are potential analogs for ancient lacustrine habitable environments on Mars. This study aimed to understand organic matter preservation potential under different diagenetic histories. Methods combined outcrop-scale field observations and lab analyses, including: (1) thin-section petrography to understand diagenetic processes and paragenesis; (2) X-ray powder diffraction to obtain bulk mineralogy; (3) Raman spectroscopy to identify and place phases (and kerogenous fossil remains) within a microtextural context; (4) Total Organic Carbon (TOC) analyses to estimate weight percentages of preserved organic carbon for each subfacies endmember; and (5) electron microprobe to create 2D kerogen maps semi-quantifying kerogen preservation in each subfacies. Results revealed complex diagenetic histories for each evaporite subfacies and pathways for organic matter preservation. Secondary gypsum grew displacively within primary playa lake mudstones during early diagenesis. Mudstones then experienced cementation by Mg-carbonates. Displacive-growth gypsum was sometimes dissolved, forming crystal molds. These molds were later either infilled by secondary sulfates or recrystallized to gypsum pseudomorphs with minor phases present (i.e., glauberite). These observations helped define taphonomic models for organic matter preservation in each subfacies. This work has the potential to inform in situ target identification, sampling strategies, and data interpretations for future Mars Sample Return missions (e.g., sample caching strategies for NASA's Mars 2020 mission).

A comparative analysis of potential impact area of common sugar cane burning methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiscox, A. L.; Flecher, S.; Wang, J. J.; Viator, H. P.

2015-04-01

The negative effects of agricultural burning are well-known, although the actual impact area of different activities has not previously been quantified. An elastic backscatter lidar system was used to examine the impact-area size and dispersion of smoke generated from different types of sugarcane burning activities; pre-harvest (standing) burning and post-harvest (ground) burning. Experiments were conducted in the sugarcane harvest season of 2010 and 2011 at two locations in Louisiana, USA. Current dispersion theory would suggest that the primary difference between burn types would be primarily in the initial plume rise, but that the overall plume shape would remain the same. However, remotely sensed lidar data with the capability to measure plume dispersion and the short time dynamics of plume location showed pre-harvest (standing) burning produced a larger plume with greater rise and more spread within the 300 m of the plume, but a decrease in dispersion, but not concentration further downwind. Post-harvest (ground) burning produced a more traditional plume shape, but still exceeded impact area predictions near the source. Moreover, large changes in plume size can occur with small increases in wind speed. These are the first instrumented measurements of the meteorological effects of the different types of sugarcane burning. These results indicate that ground burning is preferable, but should be avoided in lower wind speed conditions.

Atmospheric Effects and Potential Climatic Impact of the 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deepak, A. (Editor)

1982-01-01

Measurements and studies of the 1980 Mount St. Helens volcanic eruptions and their atmospheric effects and climatic impact are addressed. Specific areas discussed include: (1) nature and impact of volcanic eruptions; (2) in situ measurements of effluents; (3) remote sensing measurements; (4) transport and dispersion of volcanic effluents; (5) chemistry of volcanic effluents; and (6) weather and potential climate impact.

Incomplete coexistence systems and international food trade impacts.

PubMed

Smyth, Stuart J; Phillips, Peter W B

2015-12-01

Trade disruptions have been both common and costly for the few GM crops that are produced and marketed. We use a range of adoption studies (compiled by Smyth et al. in Handbook on Agriculture, Biotechnology and Development, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham, 2014a), regulatory data and production and trade data to quantify the scale for low level presence incidents. To gain a full perspective on the potential scale of this problem in coming years, we use a combination of recent GM trait commercialization studies and corporate pipeline analysis to identify which traits are planned for which products and the countries in which the technology is likely to be commercialized. Their potential impact will be a result of the intended markets, the regulatory process (especially asynchronous decisions) and the scale and scope of trade in those products. Finally, the article examines the potential for some existing trade and industry institutions to manage the inherent risks of uncertain markets and market impacts.

Quantifying the impact of µCT-scanning of human fossil teeth on ESR age results.

PubMed

Duval, Mathieu; Martín-Francés, Laura

2017-05-01

Fossil human teeth are nowadays systematically CT-scanned by palaeoanthropologists prior to any further analysis. It has been recently demonstrated that this noninvasive technique has, in most cases, virtually no influence on ancient DNA preservation. However, it may have nevertheless an impact on other techniques, like Electron Spin Resonance (ESR) dating, by artificially ageing the apparent age of the sample. To evaluate this impact, we µCT-scanned several modern enamel fragments following the standard analytical procedures employed by the Dental Anthropology Group at CENIEH, Spain, and then performed ESR dose reconstruction for each of them. The results of our experiment demonstrate that the systematic high-resolution µCT-scanning of fossil hominin remains introduces a nonnegligible X-ray dose into the tooth enamel, equivalent to 15-30 Gy depending on the parameters used. This dose may be multiplied by a factor of ∼8 if no metallic filter is used. However, this dose estimate cannot be universally extrapolated to any µCT-scan experiment but has instead to be specifically assessed for each device and set of parameters employed. The impact on the ESR age results is directly dependent on the magnitude of the geological dose measured in fossil enamel but could potentially lead to an age overestimation up to 40% in case of Late Pleistocene samples, if not taken into consideration. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quantifying Pilot Visual Attention in Low Visibility Terminal Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, Kyle K.; Arthur, J. J.; Latorella, Kara A.; Kramer, Lynda J.; Shelton, Kevin J.; Norman, Robert M.; Prinzel, Lawrence J.

2012-01-01

Quantifying pilot visual behavior allows researchers to determine not only where a pilot is looking and when, but holds implications for specific behavioral tracking when these data are coupled with flight technical performance. Remote eye tracking systems have been integrated into simulators at NASA Langley with effectively no impact on the pilot environment. This paper discusses the installation and use of a remote eye tracking system. The data collection techniques from a complex human-in-the-loop (HITL) research experiment are discussed; especially, the data reduction algorithms and logic to transform raw eye tracking data into quantified visual behavior metrics, and analysis methods to interpret visual behavior. The findings suggest superior performance for Head-Up Display (HUD) and improved attentional behavior for Head-Down Display (HDD) implementations of Synthetic Vision System (SVS) technologies for low visibility terminal area operations. Keywords: eye tracking, flight deck, NextGen, human machine interface, aviation

Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China.

PubMed

Fan, Jing; Tian, Fei; Yang, Yonghui; Han, Shumin; Qiu, Guoyu

2010-01-01

Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.

Quantifier Comprehension in Corticobasal Degeneration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMillan, Corey T.; Clark, Robin; Moore, Peachie; Grossman, Murray

2006-01-01

In this study, we investigated patients with focal neurodegenerative diseases to examine a formal linguistic distinction between classes of generalized quantifiers, like "some X" and "less than half of X." Our model of quantifier comprehension proposes that number knowledge is required to understand both first-order and higher-order quantifiers.…

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines.

PubMed

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-08-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations.

Quantifying the impact of respiratory-gated 4D CT acquisition on thoracic image quality: a digital phantom study.

PubMed

Bernatowicz, K; Keall, P; Mishra, P; Knopf, A; Lomax, A; Kipritidis, J

2015-01-01

Prospective respiratory-gated 4D CT has been shown to reduce tumor image artifacts by up to 50% compared to conventional 4D CT. However, to date no studies have quantified the impact of gated 4D CT on normal lung tissue imaging, which is important in performing dose calculations based on accurate estimates of lung volume and structure. To determine the impact of gated 4D CT on thoracic image quality, the authors developed a novel simulation framework incorporating a realistic deformable digital phantom driven by patient tumor motion patterns. Based on this framework, the authors test the hypothesis that respiratory-gated 4D CT can significantly reduce lung imaging artifacts. Our simulation framework synchronizes the 4D extended cardiac torso (XCAT) phantom with tumor motion data in a quasi real-time fashion, allowing simulation of three 4D CT acquisition modes featuring different levels of respiratory feedback: (i) "conventional" 4D CT that uses a constant imaging and couch-shift frequency, (ii) "beam paused" 4D CT that interrupts imaging to avoid oversampling at a given couch position and respiratory phase, and (iii) "respiratory-gated" 4D CT that triggers acquisition only when the respiratory motion fulfills phase-specific displacement gating windows based on prescan breathing data. Our framework generates a set of ground truth comparators, representing the average XCAT anatomy during beam-on for each of ten respiratory phase bins. Based on this framework, the authors simulated conventional, beam-paused, and respiratory-gated 4D CT images using tumor motion patterns from seven lung cancer patients across 13 treatment fractions, with a simulated 5.5 cm(3) spherical lesion. Normal lung tissue image quality was quantified by comparing simulated and ground truth images in terms of overall mean square error (MSE) intensity difference, threshold-based lung volume error, and fractional false positive/false negative rates. Averaged across all simulations and phase bins

Quantifying the variability of potential black carbon transport from cropland burning in Russia driven by atmospheric blocking events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J.; Loboda, T. V.

2017-12-01

Short lived aerosols and pollutants transported from northern mid-latitudes have amplified the short term warming in the Arctic region. Specifically, black carbon is recognized as the second most important human emission in regards to climate forcing, behind carbon dioxide with a total climate forcing of +1.1Wm-2. Studies have suggested that cropland burning may be a large contributor to the black carbon emissions which are directly deposited on the snow in the Arctic region. However, accurate monitoring of cropland burning from existing active fire and burned area products is limited, thereby leading to an underestimation in black carbon emissions from cropland burning. This research focuses on 1) assessing the potential for the deposition of hypothetical black carbon emissions from known cropland burning in Russia through low-level transport, and 2) identifying a possible atmospheric pattern that may enhance the transport of black carbon emissions to the Arctic. Specifically, atmospheric blocking events present a potential mechanism that could act to enhance the likelihood of transport or accelerate the transport of pollutants to the snow-covered Arctic from Russian cropland burning based on their persistent wind patterns. This research study confirmed the importance of Russian cropland burning as a potential source of black carbon deposition on the Arctic snow in the spring despite the low injection heights associated with cropland burning. Based on the successful transport pathways, this study identified the potential transport of black carbon from Russian cropland burning beyond 80°N which has important implications for permanent sea ice cover. Further, based on the persistent wind patterns of blocking events, this study identified that blocking events are able to accelerate potential transport and increase the success of transport of black carbon emissions to the snow-covered Arctic during spring when the impact on the snow/ice albedo is at its highest. The

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, B. D.; Joos, F.

2015-11-01

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Linking Climate Suitability, Spread Rates and Host-Impact When Estimating the Potential Costs of Invasive Pests

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J.; Cook, David C.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Stephens, Andréa E. A.; Watt, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand’s merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates. PMID:23405097

POTENTIAL DROUGHT IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN TEXAS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Y. Eugene; Demissie, Yonas K.; Wigmosta, Mark S.

2013-09-30

Many power plants in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region require a large amount of water for system cooling. To improve the understanding of potential risks of electricity generation curtailment due to drought, an assessment of water availability and its potential impacts on generation during drought was performed. For this impact analysis, we identified three drought scenarios based on historical drought records and projected climate data from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global climate model, for greenhouse gas emission scenario A2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . The three drought scenarios are (1) 2011 droughtmore » conditions (the worst drought in history), with the current level of water use; (2) a single-year drought (2022) projected for the period of 2020-2030, with the assumed projected water use level for 2030; and (3) a multiple-year drought constructed with climate data for 1950-1957 and water demand projected for 2030. The projected drought scenario in 2022 and the historical droughts in 2011 and 1950-1957 represent two different precipitation patterns in the Texas-Gulf river basin. The hydrologic model constructed for the Texas-Gulf river basin covers most of the ERCOT region. The model incorporates climate and water use data that correspond to three drought scenarios, respectively, to estimate evapotranspiration, water yield from watersheds, stream flow and water storage in reservoirs. Using criteria based on observed (< 50% storage) and predicted (< 55% storage) reservoir data, we identified 15 low-storage reservoirs in 2011, 10 in 2022, and 20 in 1956 (the last year of the multiple-year drought). The power plants that are supported by these reservoirs would be potentially at risk of being derated for thermoelectric cooling because of a lack of water supply. These power plants are located mainly in watersheds near and between Houston and Austin, as well as surrounding Dallas.« less

A Generalizable Methodology for Quantifying User Satisfaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Te-Yuan; Chen, Kuan-Ta; Huang, Polly; Lei, Chin-Laung

Quantifying user satisfaction is essential, because the results can help service providers deliver better services. In this work, we propose a generalizable methodology, based on survival analysis, to quantify user satisfaction in terms of session times, i. e., the length of time users stay with an application. Unlike subjective human surveys, our methodology is based solely on passive measurement, which is more cost-efficient and better able to capture subconscious reactions. Furthermore, by using session times, rather than a specific performance indicator, such as the level of distortion of voice signals, the effects of other factors like loudness and sidetone, can also be captured by the developed models. Like survival analysis, our methodology is characterized by low complexity and a simple model-developing process. The feasibility of our methodology is demonstrated through case studies of ShenZhou Online, a commercial MMORPG in Taiwan, and the most prevalent VoIP application in the world, namely Skype. Through the model development process, we can also identify the most significant performance factors and their impacts on user satisfaction and discuss how they can be exploited to improve user experience and optimize resource allocation.

Integrating multiple remote sensing and surface measurements with models, to quantify and constrain the past decade's total 4D aerosol source profile and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, J. B.; Lan, R.; Lin, C.; Ng, D. H. L.; Lim, A.

2017-12-01

A multi-instrument, inverse modeling approach, is employed to identify and quantify large-scale global biomass urban aerosol emissions profiles. The approach uses MISR, MODIS, OMI and MOPITT, with data from 2006 to 2016, to generate spatial and temporal loads, as well as some information about composition. The method is able to identify regions impacted by stable urban sources, changing urban sources, intense fires, and linear-combinations. Subsequent quantification is a unified field, leading to a less biased profile, with the result not requiring arbitrary scaling to match long-term means. Additionally, the result reasonably reproduces inter and intra annual variation. Both meso-scale (WRF-CHEM) and global (MIT-AERO, multi-mode, multi-mixing state aerosol model) models of aerosol transport, chemistry, and physics, are used to generate resulting 4D aerosol fields. Comparisons with CALIOP, AERONET, and surface chemical and aerosol networks, provide unbiased confirmation, while column and vertical loadings provide additional feedback. There are three significant results. First, there is a reduction in sources over existing urban areas in East Asia. Second, there is an increase in sources over new urban areas in South, South East, and East Asia. Third, that there is an increase in fire sources in South and South East Asia. There are other initial findings relevant to the global tropics, which have not been as deeply investigated. The results improve the model match with both the mean and variation, which is essential if we hope to understand seasonal extremes. The results also quantify impacts of both local and long-range sources. This is of extreme urgency, in particular in developing nations, where there are considerable contributions from long-range or otherwise unknown sources, that impact hundreds of millions of people throughout Asia. It is hoped that the approach provided here can help us to make critical decisions about total sources, as well as point out the

Properties and relative measure for quantifying quantum synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenlin; Zhang, Wenzhao; Li, Chong; Song, Heshan

2017-07-01

Although quantum synchronization phenomena and corresponding measures have been widely discussed recently, it is still an open question how to characterize directly the influence of nonlocal correlation, which is the key distinction for identifying classical and quantum synchronizations. In this paper, we present basic postulates for quantifying quantum synchronization based on the related theory in Mari's work [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 103605 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.103605], and we give a general formula of a quantum synchronization measure with clear physical interpretations. By introducing Pearson's parameter, we show that the obvious characteristics of our measure are the relativity and monotonicity. As an example, the measure is applied to describe synchronization among quantum optomechanical systems under a Markovian bath. We also show the potential by quantifying generalized synchronization and discrete variable synchronization with this measure.

Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

Dornelas, Maria; Magurran, Anne E.; Buckland, Stephen T.; Chao, Anne; Chazdon, Robin L.; Colwell, Robert K.; Curtis, Tom; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Kosnik, Matthew A.; McGill, Brian; McCune, Jenny L.; Morlon, Hélène; Mumby, Peter J.; Øvreås, Lise; Studeny, Angelika; Vellend, Mark

2013-01-01

Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series—lack of physical boundaries, uni-dimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality—that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions. PMID:23097514

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GENOMICS ON EPA REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Gallagher, Kathryn and William Benson. In press. Potential Impacts of Genomics on EPA Regulatory and Risk Assessment (Abstract). To be presented at the EPA Science Forum: Healthy Communities and Ecosystems, 1-3 June 2004, Washington, DC. 1 p. (ERL,GB R991).

Advances in ge...

Diesel Emissions Quantifier (DEQ)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

.The Diesel Emissions Quantifier (Quantifier) is an interactive tool to estimate emission reductions and cost effectiveness. Publications EPA-420-F-13-008a (420f13008a), EPA-420-B-10-035 (420b10023), EPA-420-B-10-034 (420b10034)

Quantifying the streamflow response to frozen ground degradation in the source region of the Yellow River within the Budyko framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Taihua; Yang, Hanbo; Yang, Dawen; Qin, Yue; Wang, Yuhan

2018-03-01

The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is greatly important for water resources throughout the entire Yellow River Basin. Streamflow in the SRYR has experienced great changes over the past few decades, which is closely related to the frozen ground degradation; however, the extent of this influence is still unclear. In this study, the air freezing index (DDFa) is selected as an indicator for the degree of frozen ground degradation. A water-energy balance equation within the Budyko framework is employed to quantify the streamflow response to the direct impact of climate change, which manifests as changes in the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the impact of frozen ground degradation, which can be regarded as part of the indirect impact of climate change. The results show that the direct impact of climate change and the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 55% and 33%, respectively, of the streamflow decrease for the entire SRYR from Period 1 (1965-1989) to Period 2 (1990-2003). In the permafrost-dominated region upstream of the Jimai hydrological station, the impact of frozen ground degradation can explain 71% of the streamflow decrease. From Period 2 (1990-2003) to Period 3 (2004-2015), the observed streamflow did not increase as much as the precipitation; this could be attributed to the combined effects of increasing potential evapotranspiration and more importantly, frozen ground degradation. Frozen ground degradation could influence streamflow by increasing the groundwater storage when the active layer thickness increases in permafrost-dominated regions. These findings will help develop a better understanding of the impact of frozen ground degradation on water resources in the Tibetan Plateau.

On the Predictability of Future Impact in Science

PubMed Central

Penner, Orion; Pan, Raj K.; Petersen, Alexander M.; Kaski, Kimmo; Fortunato, Santo

2013-01-01

Correctly assessing a scientist's past research impact and potential for future impact is key in recruitment decisions and other evaluation processes. While a candidate's future impact is the main concern for these decisions, most measures only quantify the impact of previous work. Recently, it has been argued that linear regression models are capable of predicting a scientist's future impact. By applying that future impact model to 762 careers drawn from three disciplines: physics, biology, and mathematics, we identify a number of subtle, but critical, flaws in current models. Specifically, cumulative non-decreasing measures like the h-index contain intrinsic autocorrelation, resulting in significant overestimation of their “predictive power”. Moreover, the predictive power of these models depend heavily upon scientists' career age, producing least accurate estimates for young researchers. Our results place in doubt the suitability of such models, and indicate further investigation is required before they can be used in recruiting decisions. PMID:24165898

Quantifying Transmission.

PubMed

Woolhouse, Mark

2017-07-01

Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts. Individuals' opportunities to transmit infection are dependent on behavioral and other risk factors relevant given the transmission route of the pathogen concerned. Transmission at the population level can be quantified through knowledge of risk factors in the population or phylogeographic analysis of pathogen sequence data. Mathematical model-based approaches require estimation of the per capita transmission rate and basic reproduction number, obtained by fitting models to case data and/or analysis of pathogen sequence data. Heterogeneities in infectiousness, contact behavior, and susceptibility can have substantial effects on the epidemiology of an infectious disease, so estimates of only mean values may be insufficient. For some pathogens, super-shedders (infected individuals who are highly infectious) and super-spreaders (individuals with more opportunities to transmit infection) may be important. Future work on quantifying transmission should involve integrated analyses of multiple data sources.

Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Zhao, Ruijun

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease inmore » ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R 0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R 0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions.« less

Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission

DOE PAGES

Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Zhao, Ruijun; ...

2014-08-23

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease inmore » ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R 0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R 0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions.« less

An overview of algae biofuel production and potential environmental impact.

PubMed

Menetrez, Marc Y

2012-07-03

Algae are among the most potentially significant sources of sustainable biofuels in the future of renewable energy. A feedstock with virtually unlimited applicability, algae can metabolize various waste streams (e.g., municipal wastewater, carbon dioxide from industrial flue gas) and produce products with a wide variety of compositions and uses. These products include lipids, which can be processed into biodiesel; carbohydrates, which can be processed into ethanol; and proteins, which can be used for human and animal consumption. Algae are commonly genetically engineered to allow for advantageous process modification or optimization. However, issues remain regarding human exposure to algae-derived toxins, allergens, and carcinogens from both existing and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), as well as the overall environmental impact of GMOs. A literature review was performed to highlight issues related to the growth and use of algal products for generating biofuels. Human exposure and environmental impact issues are identified and discussed, as well as current research and development activities of academic, commercial, and governmental groups. It is hoped that the ideas contained in this paper will increase environmental awareness of issues surrounding the production of algae and will help the algae industry develop to its full potential.

Impact sites representing potential bruising locations associated with rearward falls in children.

PubMed

Dsouza, Raymond; Bertocci, Gina

2016-04-01

Children presenting multiple unexplained bruises can be an early sign of physical abuse. Bruising locations on the body can be an effective indicator of abusive versus accidental trauma. Additionally, childhood falls are often used as falsely reported events in child abuse, however, characterization of potential bruising locations associated with these falls does not exist. In our study we used a 12-month old pediatric anthropomorphic test device (ATD) adapted with a custom developed force sensing skin to predict potential bruising locations during rearward falls from standing. The surrogate bruising detection system measured and displayed recorded force data on a computerized body image mapping system when sensors were activated. Simulated rearward fall experiments were performed onto two different impact surfaces (padded carpet and linoleum tile over concrete) with two different initial positions (standing upright and posteriorly inclined) so that the ATD would fall rearward upon release. Findings indicated impact locations, and thus the potential for bruising in the posterior plane primarily within the occipital head and posterior torso regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying green water flows for improved Integrated Land and Water Resource Management under the National Water Act of South Africa: A review on hydrological research in South Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarmain, C.; Everson, C. S.; Gush, M. B.; Clulow, A. D.

2009-09-01

The contribution of hydrological research in South Africa in quantifying green water flows for improved Integrated Land and Water Resources Management is reviewed. Green water refers to water losses from land surfaces through transpiration (seen as a productive use) and evaporation from bare soil (seen as a non-productive use). In contrast, blue water flows refer to streamflow (surface water) and groundwater / aquifer recharge. Over the past 20 years, a number of methods have been used to quantify the green water and blue water flows. These include micrometeorological techniques (e.g. Bowen ratio energy balance, eddy covariance, surface renewal, scintillometry, lysimetry), field scale models (e.g. SWB, SWAP), catchment scale hydrological models (e.g. ACRU, SWAT) and more recently remote sensing based models (e.g. SEBAL, SEBS). The National Water Act of South Africa of 1998 requires that water resources are managed, protected and used (developed, conserved and controlled) in an equitable way which is beneficial to the public. The quantification of green water flows in catchments under different land uses has been pivotal in (a) regulating streamflow reduction activities (e.g. forestry) and the management of alien invasive plants, (b) protecting riparian and wetland areas through the provision of an ecological reserve, (c) assessing and improving the water use efficiency of irrigated pastures, fruit tree orchards and vineyards, (d) quantifying the potential impact of future land uses like bio-fuels (e.g. Jatropha) on water resources, (e) quantifying water losses from open water bodies, and (f) investigating "biological” mitigation measures to reduce the impact of polluted water resources as a result of various industries (e.g. mining). This paper therefore captures the evolution of measurement techniques applied across South Africa, the impact these results have had on water use and water use efficiency and the extent to which it supported the National Water Act of

Quantifying the impacts of piñon mortality on ecosystem-scale carbon and water cycling: a twinned flux tower approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, A. M.; Litvak, M. E.; McDowell, N.; Rahn, T.; Ryan, M. G.

2010-12-01

Piñon-juniper (PJ) woodlands, which occupy 24 million ha throughout the Southwest, proved to be extremely vulnerable to an extended drought that began in 1999, leading to an abrupt die-off of 40 to 95% of piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and 2-25% of juniper (Juniperus monosperma) in less than 3 years. Climate predictions for the region suggest such droughts are likely to become more frequent and widespread in the future, extending northwards. Such large-scale change in vegetation has the potential to trigger rapid changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics and the local and regional hydrologic cycle. We are using a twinned ecosystem-scale manipulation study to quantify the transient dynamics of carbon and water flux responses to piñon mortality. A combination of eddy covariance, soil respiration and moisture, sap flow and biomass carbon pool measurements are being made at an undisturbed PJ woodland (control) site and at a manipulation site within 2 miles of the control where all piñon trees greater than 7 cm diameter at breast height within the 4 ha flux footprint were killed in September 2009 using girdling and herbicide injection following 6 months of background measurements. We hypothesis that piñon mortality alters the local scale carbon cycle by shifting a large stock of carbon from productive biomass to detritus, leading to an initial decrease in net primary production and an increase in ecosystem respiration and net carbon flux to the atmosphere. However, reduced competition for water in these water-limited ecosystems and increased light availability may lead to compensatory growth in surviving small piñon, juniper and understory vegetation, offsetting or exceeding the expected reduction in NPP from piñon mortality. Because litter and coarse woody debris are slow to decompose in semiarid environments we hypothesize that the manipulation site will continue to be net carbon sources even after NPP recovers. Our general hypothesis for the local scale water cycle is

Groundwater potential for water supply during droughts in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, Y.; Cha, E.; Moon, H. J.

2016-12-01

Droughts have been receiving much attention in Korea because severe droughts occurred in recent years, causing significant social, economic and environmental damages in some regions. Residents in agricultural area, most of all, were most damaged by droughts with lack of available water supplies to meet crop water demands. In order to mitigate drought damages, we present a strategy to keep from agricultural droughts by using groundwater to meet water supply as a potential water resource in agricultural areas. In this study, we analyze drought severity and the groundwater potential to mitigate social and environmental damages caused by droughts in Korea. We evaluate drought severity by analyzing spatial and temporal meteorological and hydrological data such as rainfall, water supply and demand. For drought severity, we use effective drought index along with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI). Water deficit during the drought period is also quantified to consider social and environmental impact of droughts. Then we assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a potential source for groundwater impact mitigation. Results show that the agricultural areas are more vulnerable to droughts and use of groundwater as an emergency water resource is feasible in some regions. For a case study, we select Jeong-Sun area located in Kangwon providence having well-developed Karst aquifers and surrounded by mountains. For Jeong-Sun area, we quantify groundwater potential use, design the method of water supply by using groundwater, and assess its economic benefit. Results show that water supply system with groundwater abstraction can be a good strategy when droughts are severe for an emergency water supply in Jeong-Sun area, and groundwater can also be used not only for a dry season water supply resource, but for everyday water supply system. This case study results can further be applicable to some regions with no sufficient water

A low-cost uterine balloon tamponade for management of postpartum hemorrhage: modeling the potential impact on maternal mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Herrick, Tara; Mvundura, Mercy; Burke, Thomas F; Abu-Haydar, Elizabeth

2017-11-13

Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal deaths worldwide. This study sought to quantify the potential health impact (morbidity and mortality reductions) that a low-cost uterine balloon tamponade (UBT) could have on women suffering from uncontrolled PPH due to uterine atony in sub-Saharan Africa. The Maternal and Neonatal Directed Assessment of Technology (MANDATE) model was used to estimate maternal deaths, surgeries averted, and cases of severe anemia prevented through UBT use among women with PPH who receive a uterotonic drug but fail this therapy in a health facility. Estimates were generated for the year 2018. The main outcome measures were lives saved, surgeries averted, and severe anemia prevented. The base case model estimated that widespread use of a low-cost UBT in clinics and hospitals could save 6547 lives (an 11% reduction in maternal deaths), avert 10,823 surgeries, and prevent 634 severe anemia cases in sub-Saharan Africa annually. A low-cost UBT has a strong potential to save lives and reduce morbidity. It can also potentially reduce costly downstream interventions for women who give birth in a health care facility. This technology may be especially useful for meeting global targets for reducing maternal mortality as identified in Sustainable Development Goal 3.

Potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Perham, Craig; French-McCay, Deborah P; Balouskus, Richard

2018-04-01

Sea ice decline is anticipated to increase human access to the Arctic Ocean allowing for offshore oil and gas development in once inaccessible areas. Given the potential negative consequences of an oil spill on marine wildlife populations in the Arctic, it is important to understand the magnitude of impact a large spill could have on wildlife to inform response planning efforts. In this study we simulated oil spills that released 25,000 barrels of oil for 30 days in autumn originating from two sites in the Chukchi Sea (one in Russia and one in the U.S.) and tracked the distribution of oil for 76 days. We then determined the potential impact such a spill might have on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their habitat by overlapping spills with maps of polar bear habitat and movement trajectories. Only a small proportion (1-10%) of high-value polar bear sea ice habitat was directly affected by oil sufficient to impact bears. However, 27-38% of polar bears in the region were potentially exposed to oil. Oil consistently had the highest probability of reaching Wrangel and Herald islands, important areas of denning and summer terrestrial habitat. Oil did not reach polar bears until approximately 3 weeks after the spills. Our study found the potential for significant impacts to polar bears under a worst case discharge scenario, but suggests that there is a window of time where effective containment efforts could minimize exposure to bears. Our study provides a framework for wildlife managers and planners to assess the level of response that would be required to treat exposed wildlife and where spill response equipment might be best stationed. While the size of spill we simulated has a low probability of occurring, it provides an upper limit for planners to consider when crafting response plans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Impact of DAIS Concept on Life Cycle Cost. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goclowski, John C.; And Others

Designed to identify and quantify the potential impacts of the Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS) on weapon system personnel requirements and life cycle cost (LCC), this study postulated a typical close-air-support (CAS) mission avionics suite to serve as a basis for comparing present day and DAIS configuration specifications. The purpose…

Modelling impacts and recovery in benthic communities exposed to localised high CO2.

PubMed

Lessin, Gennadi; Artioli, Yuri; Queirós, Ana M; Widdicombe, Stephen; Blackford, Jerry C

2016-08-15

Regulations pertaining to carbon dioxide capture with offshore storage (CCS) require an understanding of the potential localised environmental impacts and demonstrably suitable monitoring practices. This study uses a marine ecosystem model to examine a comprehensive range of hypothetical CO2 leakage scenarios, quantifying both impact and recovery time within the benthic system. Whilst significant mortalities and long recovery times were projected for the larger and longer term scenarios, shorter-term or low level exposures lead to reduced projected impacts. This suggests that efficient monitoring and leak mitigation strategies, coupled with appropriate selection of storage sites can effectively limit concerns regarding localised environmental impacts from CCS. The feedbacks and interactions between physiological and ecological responses simulated reveal that benthic responses to CO2 leakage could be complex. This type of modelling investigation can aid the understanding of impact potential, the role of benthic community recovery and inform the design of baseline and monitoring surveys. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying habitat impacts of natural gas infrastructure to facilitate biodiversity offsetting.

PubMed

Jones, Isabel L; Bull, Joseph W; Milner-Gulland, Eleanor J; Esipov, Alexander V; Suttle, Kenwyn B

2014-01-01

Habitat degradation through anthropogenic development is a key driver of biodiversity loss. One way to compensate losses is "biodiversity offsetting" (wherein biodiversity impacted is "replaced" through restoration elsewhere). A challenge in implementing offsets, which has received scant attention in the literature, is the accurate determination of residual biodiversity losses. We explore this challenge for offsetting gas extraction in the Ustyurt Plateau, Uzbekistan. Our goal was to determine the landscape extent of habitat impacts, particularly how the footprint of "linear" infrastructure (i.e. roads, pipelines), often disregarded in compensation calculations, compares with "hub" infrastructure (i.e. extraction facilities). We measured vegetation cover and plant species richness using the line-intercept method, along transects running from infrastructure/control sites outward for 500 m, accounting for wind direction to identify dust deposition impacts. Findings from 24 transects were extrapolated to the broader plateau by mapping total landscape infrastructure network using GPS data and satellite imagery. Vegetation cover and species richness were significantly lower at development sites than controls. These differences disappeared within 25 m of the edge of the area physically occupied by infrastructure. The current habitat footprint of gas infrastructure is 220 ± 19 km(2) across the Ustyurt (total ∼ 100,000 km(2)), 37 ± 6% of which is linear infrastructure. Vegetation impacts diminish rapidly with increasing distance from infrastructure, and localized dust deposition does not conspicuously extend the disturbance footprint. Habitat losses from gas extraction infrastructure cover 0.2% of the study area, but this reflects directly eliminated vegetation only. Impacts upon fauna pose a more difficult determination, as these require accounting for behavioral and demographic responses to disturbance by elusive mammals, including threatened species. This study

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

PubMed Central

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-01-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

Finding Snowmageddon: Detecting and quantifying northeastern U.S. snowstorms in a multi-decadal global climate ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.

2017-12-01

The northeastern coast of the United States is particularly vulnerable to impacts from extratropical cyclones during winter months, which produce heavy precipitation, high winds, and coastal flooding. These impacts are amplified by the proximity of major population centers to common storm tracks and include risks to health and welfare, massive transportation disruption, lost spending productivity, power outages, and structural damage. Historically, understanding regional snowfall in climate models has generally centered around seasonal mean climatologies even though major impacts typically occur at the scales of hours to days. To quantify discrete snowstorms at the event level, we describe a new objective detection algorithm for gridded data based on the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. The algorithm uses 6-hourly precipitation to collocate storm-integrated snowfall with population density to produce a distribution of snowstorms with societally relevant impacts. The algorithm is tested on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project (LENS) data. Present day distributions of snowfall events is well-replicated within the ensemble. We discuss classification sensitivities to assumptions made in determining precipitation phase and snow water equivalent. We also explore projected reductions in mid-century and end-of-century snowstorms due to changes in snowfall rates and precipitation phase, as well as highlight potential improvements in storm representation from refined horizontal resolution in model simulations.

Hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed, Texas during Hurricane Harvey and Impact of Potential Mitigation Measures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Hassan, A.; Fares, A.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Rain resulting from Hurricane Harvey stated to spread into Harris County late in August 25 and continued until August 31 2017. This high intensity rainfall caused catastrophic flooding across the Greater Houston Area and south Texas. The objectives of this study are to use the USACE Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model (GSSHA) to: i) simulate the hydrology and hydraulics of Cypress Creek watershed and quantify the impact of hurricane Harvey on it; and ii) test potential mitigation measures, e.g., construction of a third surface reservoir on the flooding and hydrology of this watershed. Cypress Creek watershed area is 733 km2. Simulations were conducted using precipitation from two sources a) the Multisensory Precipitation Estimator radar products (MPE) and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system. Streamflow was downloaded from the USGS gauge at the outlet of the watershed. The models performance using both precipitation data was very reasonable. The construction of an 8 m high embankment at the south central part of the watershed resulted in over 22% reduction of the peak flow of the stream and also reduction of the depth of inundation across the east part of the watershed. These and other mitigation scenarios will be further discussed in details during the presentation.

Retrospective fire modeling: Quantifying the impacts of fire suppression

Treesearch

Brett H. Davis; Carol Miller; Sean A. Parks

2010-01-01

Land management agencies need to understand and monitor the consequences of their fire suppression decisions. We developed a framework for retrospective fire behavior modeling and impact assessment to determine where ignitions would have spread had they not been suppressed and to assess the cumulative effects that would have resulted. This document is a general...

A calibrated Monte Carlo approach to quantify the impacts of misorientation and different driving forces on texture development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liangzhe Zhang; Anthony D. Rollett; Timothy Bartel

2012-02-01

A calibrated Monte Carlo (cMC) approach, which quantifies grain boundary kinetics within a generic setting, is presented. The influence of misorientation is captured by adding a scaling coefficient in the spin flipping probability equation, while the contribution of different driving forces is weighted using a partition function. The calibration process relies on the established parametric links between Monte Carlo (MC) and sharp-interface models. The cMC algorithm quantifies microstructural evolution under complex thermomechanical environments and remedies some of the difficulties associated with conventional MC models. After validation, the cMC approach is applied to quantify the texture development of polycrystalline materials withmore » influences of misorientation and inhomogeneous bulk energy across grain boundaries. The results are in good agreement with theory and experiments.« less

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-11-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Potential impacts of Brayton and Stirling cycle engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heft, R. C.

1980-01-01

Two engine technologies (Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle) are examined for their potential economic impact and fuel utilization. An economic analysis of the expected response of buyers to the attributes of the alternative engines was performed. Hedonic coefficients for vehicle fuel efficiency, performance and size were estimated for domestic cars based upon historical data. The marketplace value of the fuel efficiency enhancement provided by Brayton or Stirling engines was estimated. Under the assumptions of 10 years for plant conversions and 1990 and 1995 as the introduction data for turbine and Stirling engines respectively, the comparative fuel savings and present value of the future savings in fuel costs were estimated.

Quantifying Options for Reducing Coronary Heart Disease Mortality By 2020

PubMed Central

Huffman, Mark D.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.; Ning, Hongyan; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Castillo, Maria Guzman; O’Flaherty, Martin; Ford, Earl S.; Capewell, Simon

2013-01-01

Introduction The AHA 2020 Strategic Impact Goal proposes a 20% improvement in cardiovascular health of all Americans. We aimed to estimate the potential reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths. Methods and Results We used data on 40,373 CVD-free adults from NHANES (1988–2010). We quantified recent trends for six metrics (total cholesterol [TC]; systolic blood pressure [SBP]; physical inactivity; smoking; diabetes; obesity) and generated linear projections to 2020. We projected the expected number of CHD deaths in 2020 if 2006 age- and sex-specific CHD death rates remained constant, which would result in approximately 480,000 CHD deaths in 2020 (12% increase). We used the previously validated IMPACT CHD model to project numbers of CHD deaths in 2020 under two different scenarios. A) Assuming a 20% improvement in each CVH metric, we project 365,000 CHD deaths in 2020, (range 327,000–403,000) a 24% decrease reflecting modest reductions in TC (−41,000), SBP (−36,000), physical inactivity (−12,000), smoking (−10,000), diabetes (−10,000), and obesity (−5,000). B) Assuming that recent risk factor trends continue to 2020, we project 335,000 CHD deaths (range 274,000–386,000), a 30% decrease reflecting improvements in TC, SBP, smoking and physical activity (~167,000 fewer deaths), offset by increases in diabetes and BMI (~24,000 more deaths). Conclusions Two contrasting scenarios of change in CVH metrics could prevent 24–30% of the CHD deaths expected in 2020, though with differing impacts by age. Unfavorable continuing trends in obesity and diabetes would have substantial adverse effects. This analysis demonstrates the utility of modelling to inform health policy. PMID:23661723

DYNAMO-HIA–A Dynamic Modeling Tool for Generic Health Impact Assessments

PubMed Central

Lhachimi, Stefan K.; Nusselder, Wilma J.; Smit, Henriette A.; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C.; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Boshuizen, Hendriek C.

2012-01-01

Background Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. Methods and Results DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures – e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy – and detailed data – e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates – by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. Conclusion By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on

DYNAMO-HIA--a Dynamic Modeling tool for generic Health Impact Assessments.

PubMed

Lhachimi, Stefan K; Nusselder, Wilma J; Smit, Henriette A; van Baal, Pieter; Baili, Paolo; Bennett, Kathleen; Fernández, Esteve; Kulik, Margarete C; Lobstein, Tim; Pomerleau, Joceline; Mackenbach, Johan P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

2012-01-01

Currently, no standard tool is publicly available that allows researchers or policy-makers to quantify the impact of policies using epidemiological evidence within the causal framework of Health Impact Assessment (HIA). A standard tool should comply with three technical criteria (real-life population, dynamic projection, explicit risk-factor states) and three usability criteria (modest data requirements, rich model output, generally accessible) to be useful in the applied setting of HIA. With DYNAMO-HIA (Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment), we introduce such a generic software tool specifically designed to facilitate quantification in the assessment of the health impacts of policies. DYNAMO-HIA quantifies the impact of user-specified risk-factor changes on multiple diseases and in turn on overall population health, comparing one reference scenario with one or more intervention scenarios. The Markov-based modeling approach allows for explicit risk-factor states and simulation of a real-life population. A built-in parameter estimation module ensures that only standard population-level epidemiological evidence is required, i.e. data on incidence, prevalence, relative risks, and mortality. DYNAMO-HIA provides a rich output of summary measures--e.g. life expectancy and disease-free life expectancy--and detailed data--e.g. prevalences and mortality/survival rates--by age, sex, and risk-factor status over time. DYNAMO-HIA is controlled via a graphical user interface and is publicly available from the internet, ensuring general accessibility. We illustrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA with two example applications: a policy causing an overall increase in alcohol consumption and quantifying the disease-burden of smoking. By combining modest data needs with general accessibility and user friendliness within the causal framework of HIA, DYNAMO-HIA is a potential standard tool for health impact assessment based on epidemiologic evidence.

Testing and injury potential analysis of rollovers with narrow object impacts.

PubMed

Meyer, Steven E; Forrest, Stephen; Herbst, Brian; Hayden, Joshua; Orton, Tia; Sances, Anthony; Kumaresan, Srirangam

2004-01-01

Recent statistics highlight the significant risk of serious and fatal injuries to occupants involved in rollover collisions due to excessive roof crush. The government has reported that in 2002. Sports Utility Vehicle rollover related fatalities increased by 14% to more than 2400 annually. 61% of all SUV fatalities included rollovers [1]. Rollover crashes rely primarily upon the roof structures to maintain occupant survival space. Frequently these crashes occur off the travel lanes of the roadway and, therefore, can include impacts with various types of narrow objects such as light poles, utility poles and/or trees. A test device and methodology is presented which facilitates dynamic, repeatable rollover impact evaluation of complete vehicle roof structures with such narrow objects. These tests allow for the incorporation of Anthropomorphic Test Dummies (ATDs) which can be instrumented to measure accelerations, forces and moments to evaluate injury potential. High-speed video permits for detailed analysis of occupant kinematics and evaluation of injury causation. Criteria such as restraint performance, injury potential, survival space and the effect of roof crush associated with various types of design alternatives, countermeasures and impact circumstances can also be evaluated. In addition to presentation of the methodology, two representative vehicle crash tests are also reported. Results indicated that the reinforced roof structure significantly reduced the roof deformation compared to the production roof structure.

Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production: a comparison with biogeochemical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caiazzo, Fabio; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark D.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Yim, Steve H. L.; Barrett, Steven R. H.

2014-01-01

Lifecycle analysis is a tool widely used to evaluate the climate impact of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the production and use of biofuels. In this paper we employ an augmented lifecycle framework that includes climate impacts from changes in surface albedo due to land use change. We consider eleven land-use change scenarios for the cultivation of biomass for middle distillate fuel production, and compare our results to previous estimates of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for the same set of land-use change scenarios in terms of CO2e per unit of fuel energy. We find that two of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a warming effect due to changes in surface albedo, compared to conventional fuel, the largest of which is for replacement of desert land with salicornia cultivation. This corresponds to 222 gCO2e/MJ, equivalent to 3890% and 247% of the lifecycle GHG emissions of fuels derived from salicornia and crude oil, respectively. Nine of the land-use change scenarios considered demonstrate a cooling effect, the largest of which is for the replacement of tropical rainforests with soybean cultivation. This corresponds to - 161 gCO2e/MJ, or - 28% and - 178% of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of fuels derived from soybean and crude oil, respectively. These results indicate that changes in surface albedo have the potential to dominate the climate impact of biofuels, and we conclude that accounting for changes in surface albedo is necessary for a complete assessment of the aggregate climate impacts of biofuel production and use.

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks

PubMed Central

Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C.

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep. PMID:29641599

Quantifying sleep architecture dynamics and individual differences using big data and Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Yetton, Benjamin D; McDevitt, Elizabeth A; Cellini, Nicola; Shelton, Christian; Mednick, Sara C

2018-01-01

The pattern of sleep stages across a night (sleep architecture) is influenced by biological, behavioral, and clinical variables. However, traditional measures of sleep architecture such as stage proportions, fail to capture sleep dynamics. Here we quantify the impact of individual differences on the dynamics of sleep architecture and determine which factors or set of factors best predict the next sleep stage from current stage information. We investigated the influence of age, sex, body mass index, time of day, and sleep time on static (e.g. minutes in stage, sleep efficiency) and dynamic measures of sleep architecture (e.g. transition probabilities and stage duration distributions) using a large dataset of 3202 nights from a non-clinical population. Multi-level regressions show that sex effects duration of all Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) stages, and age has a curvilinear relationship for Wake After Sleep Onset (WASO) and slow wave sleep (SWS) minutes. Bayesian network modeling reveals sleep architecture depends on time of day, total sleep time, age and sex, but not BMI. Older adults, and particularly males, have shorter bouts (more fragmentation) of Stage 2, SWS, and they transition less frequently to these stages. Additionally, we showed that the next sleep stage and its duration can be optimally predicted by the prior 2 stages and age. Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of big data and Bayesian network approaches in quantifying static and dynamic architecture of normal sleep.

Quantifying the impact of respiratory-gated 4D CT acquisition on thoracic image quality: A digital phantom study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernatowicz, K., E-mail: kingab@student.ethz.ch; Knopf, A.; Lomax, A.

Purpose: Prospective respiratory-gated 4D CT has been shown to reduce tumor image artifacts by up to 50% compared to conventional 4D CT. However, to date no studies have quantified the impact of gated 4D CT on normal lung tissue imaging, which is important in performing dose calculations based on accurate estimates of lung volume and structure. To determine the impact of gated 4D CT on thoracic image quality, the authors developed a novel simulation framework incorporating a realistic deformable digital phantom driven by patient tumor motion patterns. Based on this framework, the authors test the hypothesis that respiratory-gated 4D CTmore » can significantly reduce lung imaging artifacts. Methods: Our simulation framework synchronizes the 4D extended cardiac torso (XCAT) phantom with tumor motion data in a quasi real-time fashion, allowing simulation of three 4D CT acquisition modes featuring different levels of respiratory feedback: (i) “conventional” 4D CT that uses a constant imaging and couch-shift frequency, (ii) “beam paused” 4D CT that interrupts imaging to avoid oversampling at a given couch position and respiratory phase, and (iii) “respiratory-gated” 4D CT that triggers acquisition only when the respiratory motion fulfills phase-specific displacement gating windows based on prescan breathing data. Our framework generates a set of ground truth comparators, representing the average XCAT anatomy during beam-on for each of ten respiratory phase bins. Based on this framework, the authors simulated conventional, beam-paused, and respiratory-gated 4D CT images using tumor motion patterns from seven lung cancer patients across 13 treatment fractions, with a simulated 5.5 cm{sup 3} spherical lesion. Normal lung tissue image quality was quantified by comparing simulated and ground truth images in terms of overall mean square error (MSE) intensity difference, threshold-based lung volume error, and fractional false positive/false negative rates

Quantifying habitat impacts of natural gas infrastructure to facilitate biodiversity offsetting

PubMed Central

Jones, Isabel L; Bull, Joseph W; Milner-Gulland, Eleanor J; Esipov, Alexander V; Suttle, Kenwyn B

2014-01-01

Habitat degradation through anthropogenic development is a key driver of biodiversity loss. One way to compensate losses is “biodiversity offsetting” (wherein biodiversity impacted is “replaced” through restoration elsewhere). A challenge in implementing offsets, which has received scant attention in the literature, is the accurate determination of residual biodiversity losses. We explore this challenge for offsetting gas extraction in the Ustyurt Plateau, Uzbekistan. Our goal was to determine the landscape extent of habitat impacts, particularly how the footprint of “linear” infrastructure (i.e. roads, pipelines), often disregarded in compensation calculations, compares with “hub” infrastructure (i.e. extraction facilities). We measured vegetation cover and plant species richness using the line-intercept method, along transects running from infrastructure/control sites outward for 500 m, accounting for wind direction to identify dust deposition impacts. Findings from 24 transects were extrapolated to the broader plateau by mapping total landscape infrastructure network using GPS data and satellite imagery. Vegetation cover and species richness were significantly lower at development sites than controls. These differences disappeared within 25 m of the edge of the area physically occupied by infrastructure. The current habitat footprint of gas infrastructure is 220 ± 19 km2 across the Ustyurt (total ∼ 100,000 km2), 37 ± 6% of which is linear infrastructure. Vegetation impacts diminish rapidly with increasing distance from infrastructure, and localized dust deposition does not conspicuously extend the disturbance footprint. Habitat losses from gas extraction infrastructure cover 0.2% of the study area, but this reflects directly eliminated vegetation only. Impacts upon fauna pose a more difficult determination, as these require accounting for behavioral and demographic responses to disturbance by elusive mammals, including threatened species

Development of a process for quantifying the benefits of research : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

MnDOT Research Services funds and administers approximately 180 transportation research projects annually at a cost of slightly more than $3 million. This project developed an easy-to-apply process for quantifying the potential benefits of research a...

The Fallacy of Quantifying Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Defense AT&L: September–October 2012 18 The Fallacy of Quantifying Risk David E. Frick, Ph.D. Frick is a 35-year veteran of the Department of...a key to risk analysis was “choosing the right technique” of quantifying risk . The weakness in this argument stems not from the assertion that one...of information about the enemy), yet achiev- ing great outcomes. Attempts at quantifying risk are not, in and of themselves, objectionable. Prudence

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

Synergistic impact of sonic-tenside on biomass disintegration potential: Acidogenic and methane potential studies, kinetics and cost analytics.

PubMed

Tamilarasan, K; Arulazhagan, P; Rani, R Uma; Kaliappan, S; Banu, J Rajesh

2018-04-01

An exploration into the symbiotic impact of sonic-tenside (SDBS - sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate) on biomass disintegration potential and to reduce the energy consumption was studied. At optimized condition (specific energy input 9600 kJ/kg TS; SDBS dosage 0.07 g/g SS), higher percentage of biomass lysis and solids reduction (23.9% and 19.8%) was obtained in blended sonic-tenside disintegration (STD), than sonic disintegration (SD) (17.6% and 9.8%). The bioacidogenic potential (BAP) assay in terms of volatile fatty acids (VFA) production (722 mg/L) was found to be higher for STD, in comparison to SD (350 mg/L). The impact of STD on anaerobic digestion was evident from its methane yield (0.239 g/g COD), higher than SD (0.182 g/g COD). A monetary evaluation of the present study provides a net gain of 2 USD/ton for STD, indicating the profitability of the technique. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D prostate histology image reconstruction: Quantifying the impact of tissue deformation and histology section location

PubMed Central

Gibson, Eli; Gaed, Mena; Gómez, José A.; Moussa, Madeleine; Pautler, Stephen; Chin, Joseph L.; Crukley, Cathie; Bauman, Glenn S.; Fenster, Aaron; Ward, Aaron D.

2013-01-01

Background: Guidelines for localizing prostate cancer on imaging are ideally informed by registered post-prostatectomy histology. 3D histology reconstruction methods can support this by reintroducing 3D spatial information lost during histology processing. The need to register small, high-grade foci drives a need for high accuracy. Accurate 3D reconstruction method design is impacted by the answers to the following central questions of this work. (1) How does prostate tissue deform during histology processing? (2) What spatial misalignment of the tissue sections is induced by microtome cutting? (3) How does the choice of reconstruction model affect histology reconstruction accuracy? Materials and Methods: Histology, paraffin block face and magnetic resonance images were acquired for 18 whole mid-gland tissue slices from six prostates. 7-15 homologous landmarks were identified on each image. Tissue deformation due to histology processing was characterized using the target registration error (TRE) after landmark-based registration under four deformation models (rigid, similarity, affine and thin-plate-spline [TPS]). The misalignment of histology sections from the front faces of tissue slices was quantified using manually identified landmarks. The impact of reconstruction models on the TRE after landmark-based reconstruction was measured under eight reconstruction models comprising one of four deformation models with and without constraining histology images to the tissue slice front faces. Results: Isotropic scaling improved the mean TRE by 0.8-1.0 mm (all results reported as 95% confidence intervals), while skew or TPS deformation improved the mean TRE by <0.1 mm. The mean misalignment was 1.1-1.9° (angle) and 0.9-1.3 mm (depth). Using isotropic scaling, the front face constraint raised the mean TRE by 0.6-0.8 mm. Conclusions: For sub-millimeter accuracy, 3D reconstruction models should not constrain histology images to the tissue slice front faces and should be

Potential Impacts of Organic Wastes on Small Stream Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaushal, S. S.; Groffman, P. M.; Findlay, S. E.; Fischer, D. T.; Burke, R. A.; Molinero, J.

2005-05-01

We monitored concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO) and other parameters in 17 small streams of the South Fork Broad River (SFBR) watershed on a monthly basis for 15 months. The subwatersheds were chosen to reflect a range of land uses including forested, pasture, mixed, and developed. The SFBR watershed is heavily impacted by organic wastes, primarily from its large poultry industry, but also from its rapidly growing human population. The poultry litter is primarily disposed of by application to pastures. Our monthly monitoring results showed a strong inverse relationship between mean DOC and mean DO and suggested that concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), DOC, and the trace gases nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide are impacted by organic wastes and/or nutrients from animal manure applied to the land and/or human wastes from wastewater treatment plants or septic tanks in these watersheds. Here we estimate the organic waste loads of these watersheds and evaluate the impact of organic wastes on stream DOC and alkalinity concentrations, electrical conductivity, sediment potential denitrification rate and plant stable nitrogen isotope ratios. All of these water quality parameters are significantly correlated with watershed waste loading. DOC is most strongly correlated with total watershed waste loading whereas conductivity, alkalinity, potential denitrification rate and plant stable nitrogen isotope ratio are most strongly correlated with watershed human waste loading. These results suggest that more direct inputs (e.g., wastewater treatment plant effluents, near-stream septic tanks) have a greater relative impact on stream water quality than more dispersed inputs (land applied poultry litter, septic tanks far from streams) in the SFBR watershed. Conductivity, which is generally elevated in organic wastes, is also significantly correlated with total watershed waste loading suggesting it may be a useful indicator of overall

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This is the Final Report representing the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirements of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMIC) for space communication applications. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

Quantifying biostabilisation effects of biofilm-secreted and extracted extracellular polymeric substances (EPSs) on sandy substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Lageweg, Wietse I.; McLelland, Stuart J.; Parsons, Daniel R.

2018-03-01

Microbial assemblages (biofilms) preferentially develop at water-sediment interfaces and are known to have a considerable influence on sediment stability and erodibility. There is potential for significant impacts on sediment transport and morphodynamics, and hence on the longer-term evolution of coastal and fluvial environments. However, the biostabilisation effects remain poorly understood and quantified due to the inherent complexity of biofilms and the large spatial and temporal (i.e. seasonality) variations involved. Here, we use controlled laboratory tests to systematically quantify the effects of natural biofilm colonisation as well as extracted extracellular polymeric substances (EPSs) on sediment stability. Extracted EPSs may be useful to simulate biofilm-mediated biostabilisation and potentially provide a method of speeding up timescales of physical modelling experiments investigating biostabilisation effects. We find a mean biostabilisation effect due to natural biofilm colonisation and development of almost 4 times that of the uncolonised sand. The presented cumulative probability distribution of measured critical threshold for erosion of colonised sand reflects the large spatial and temporal variations generally seen in natural biostabilised environments. For identical sand, engineered sediment stability from the addition of extracted EPSs compares well across the measured range of the critical threshold for erosion and behaves in a linear and predictable fashion. Yet, the effectiveness of extracted EPSs to stabilise sediment is sensitive to the preparation procedure, time after application and environmental conditions such as salinity, pH and temperature. These findings are expected to improve biophysical experimental models in fluvial and coastal environments and provide much-needed quantification of biostabilisation to improve predictions of sediment dynamics in aquatic ecosystems.

A review of techniques for visualising soft tissue microstructure deformation and quantifying strain Ex Vivo.

PubMed

Disney, C M; Lee, P D; Hoyland, J A; Sherratt, M J; Bay, B K

2018-04-14

Many biological tissues have a complex hierarchical structure allowing them to function under demanding physiological loading conditions. Structural changes caused by ageing or disease can lead to loss of mechanical function. Therefore, it is necessary to characterise tissue structure to understand normal tissue function and the progression of disease. Ideally intact native tissues should be imaged in 3D and under physiological loading conditions. The current published in situ imaging methodologies demonstrate a compromise between imaging limitations and maintaining the samples native mechanical function. This review gives an overview of in situ imaging techniques used to visualise microstructural deformation of soft tissue, including three case studies of different tissues (tendon, intervertebral disc and artery). Some of the imaging techniques restricted analysis to observational mechanics or discrete strain measurement from invasive markers. Full-field local surface strain measurement has been achieved using digital image correlation. Volumetric strain fields have successfully been quantified from in situ X-ray microtomography (micro-CT) studies of bone using digital volume correlation but not in soft tissue due to low X-ray transmission contrast. With the latest developments in micro-CT showing in-line phase contrast capability to resolve native soft tissue microstructure, there is potential for future soft tissue mechanics research where 3D local strain can be quantified. These methods will provide information on the local 3D micromechanical environment experienced by cells in healthy, aged and diseased tissues. It is hoped that future applications of in situ imaging techniques will impact positively on the design and testing of potential tissue replacements or regenerative therapies. © 2018 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2018 Royal Microscopical Society.

The Quantified Self: Fundamental Disruption in Big Data Science and Biological Discovery.

PubMed

Swan, Melanie

2013-06-01

A key contemporary trend emerging in big data science is the quantified self (QS)-individuals engaged in the self-tracking of any kind of biological, physical, behavioral, or environmental information as n=1 individuals or in groups. There are opportunities for big data scientists to develop new models to support QS data collection, integration, and analysis, and also to lead in defining open-access database resources and privacy standards for how personal data is used. Next-generation QS applications could include tools for rendering QS data meaningful in behavior change, establishing baselines and variability in objective metrics, applying new kinds of pattern recognition techniques, and aggregating multiple self-tracking data streams from wearable electronics, biosensors, mobile phones, genomic data, and cloud-based services. The long-term vision of QS activity is that of a systemic monitoring approach where an individual's continuous personal information climate provides real-time performance optimization suggestions. There are some potential limitations related to QS activity-barriers to widespread adoption and a critique regarding scientific soundness-but these may be overcome. One interesting aspect of QS activity is that it is fundamentally a quantitative and qualitative phenomenon since it includes both the collection of objective metrics data and the subjective experience of the impact of these data. Some of this dynamic is being explored as the quantified self is becoming the qualified self in two new ways: by applying QS methods to the tracking of qualitative phenomena such as mood, and by understanding that QS data collection is just the first step in creating qualitative feedback loops for behavior change. In the long-term future, the quantified self may become additionally transformed into the extended exoself as data quantification and self-tracking enable the development of new sense capabilities that are not possible with ordinary senses. The

Potential impact of antimicrobial resistance in wildlife, environment and human health

PubMed Central

Radhouani, Hajer; Silva, Nuno; Poeta, Patrícia; Torres, Carmen; Correia, Susana; Igrejas, Gilberto

2014-01-01

Given the significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in antimicrobial resistance distribution and the factors that affect its evolution, dissemination, and persistence, it is important to highlight that antimicrobial resistance must be viewed as an ecological problem. Monitoring the resistance prevalence of indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli and enterococci in wild animals makes it possible to show that wildlife has the potential to serve as an environmental reservoir and melting pot of bacterial resistance. These researchers address the issue of antimicrobial-resistant microorganism proliferation in the environment and the related potential human health and environmental impact. PMID:24550896

A new index quantifying the precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busuioc, Aristita; Baciu, Madalina; Stoica, Cerasela

2015-04-01

Events of extreme precipitation have a great impact on society. They are associated with flooding, erosion and landslides.Various indices have been proposed to quantify these extreme events and they are mainly related to daily precipitation amount, which are usually available for long periods in many places over the world. The climate signal related to changes in the characteristics of precipitation extremes is different over various regions and it is dependent on the season and the index used to quantify the precipitation extremes. The climate model simulations and empirical evidence suggest that warmer climates, due to increased water vapour, lead to more intense precipitation events, even when the total annual precipitation is slightly reduced. It was suggested that there is a shift in the nature of precipitation events towards more intense and less frequent rains and increases in heavy rains are expected to occur in most places, even when the mean precipitation is not increasing. This conclusion was also proved for the Romanian territory in a recent study, showing a significant increasing trend of the rain shower frequency in the warm season over the entire country, despite no significant changes in the seasonal amount and the daily extremes. The shower events counted in that paper refer to all convective rains, including torrential ones giving high rainfall amount in very short time. The problem is to find an appropriate index to quantify such events in terms of their highest intensity in order to extract the maximum climate signal. In the present paper, a new index is proposed to quantify the maximum precipitation intensity in an extreme precipitation event, which could be directly related to the torrential rain intensity. This index is tested at nine Romanian stations (representing various physical-geographical conditions) and it is based on the continuous rainfall records derived from the graphical registrations (pluviograms) available at National

Exploring the potential impacts of tourism development on social and ecological change in the Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Diedrich, Amy; Aswani, Shankar

2016-11-01

Pacific Island communities may be vulnerable to negative impacts of economic development, which is often considered a strategy for reducing vulnerability to environmental change. Studies that evaluate potential impacts of economic development in isolated communities may be inaccurate to only focus on asking people to anticipate impacts of phenomena they have had minimal exposure to. We used an open-ended approach to evaluate how communities in the Solomon Islands perceived change, and used this information to anticipate potential impacts of the government's plans to develop tourism. Our results showed mostly negative expectations of change, particularly socio-cultural, which was perceived as being driven by diminishing social capital, foreign influence, and economic development. Despite minimal exposure, locals supported tourism and had more positive expectations of change associated with this activity. Our findings emphasize the need for locally appropriate planning to ensure intended positive impacts of tourism and other forms of economic development.

THz in biology and medicine: toward quantifying and understanding the interaction of millimeter- and submillimeter-waves with cells and cell processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, Peter H.; Pikov, Victor

2010-02-01

As the application and commercial use of millimeter- and submillimeter-wavelength radiation become more widespread, there is a growing need to understand and quantify both the coupling mechanisms and the impact of this long wavelength energy on biological function. Independent of the health impact of high doses of radio frequency (RF) energy on full organisms, which has been extensively investigated, there exists the potential for more subtle effects, which can best be quantified in studies which examine real-time changes in cellular functions as RF energy is applied. In this paper we present the first real time examination of RF induced changes in cellular activity at absorbed power levels well below the existing safe exposure limits. Fluorescence microscopy imaging of immortalized epithelial and neuronal cells in vitro indicate increased cellular membrane permeability and nanoporation after short term exposure to modest levels (10-50 mW/cm2) of RF power at 60 GHz. Sensitive patch clamp measurements on pyramidal neurons in cortical slices of neonatal rats showed a dramatic increase in cellular membrane permeability resulting either in suppression or facilitation of neuronal activity during exposure to sub-μW/cm2 of RF power at 60 GHz. Non-invasive modulation of neuronal activity could prove useful in a variety of health applications from suppression of peripheral neuropathic pain to treatment of central neurological disorders.

Impact of local and non-local sources of pollution on background US Ozone: synergy of a low-earth orbiting and geostationary sounder constellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Lee, M.

2015-12-01

Dramatic changes in the global distribution of emissions over the last decade have fundamentally altered source-receptor pollution impacts. A new generation of low-earth orbiting (LEO) sounders complimented by geostationary sounders over North America, Europe, and Asia providing a unique opportunity to quantify the current and future trajectory of emissions and their impact on global pollution. We examine the potential of this constellation of air quality sounders to quantify the role of local and non-local sources of pollution on background ozone in the US. Based upon an adjoint sensitivity method, we quantify the role synoptic scale transport of non-US pollution on US background ozone over months representative of different source-receptor relationships. This analysis allows us distinguish emission trajectories from megacities, e.g. Beijing, or regions, e.g., western China, from natural trends on downwind ozone. We subsequently explore how a combination of LEO and GEO observations could help quantify the balance of local emissions against changes in distant sources . These results show how this unprecedented new international ozone observing system can monitor the changing structure of emissions and their impact on global pollution.

Comparison of gas chromotography, spectrophotometry and near infrared spectroscopy to quantify prussic acid potential in forages.

PubMed

Goff, Ben M; Moore, Kenneth J; Fales, Steven L; Pedersen, Jeffery F

2011-06-01

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] has been shown to contain the cyanogenic glycoside dhurrin, which is responsible for the disorder known as prussic acid poisoning in livestock. The current standard method for estimating hydrogen cyanide (HCN) uses spectrophotometry to measure the aglycone, p-hydroxybenzaldehyde (p-HB), after hydrolysis. Errors may occur due to the inability of this method to solely estimate the absorbance of p-HB at a given wavelength. The objective of this study was to compare the use of gas chromatography (GC) and near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) methods, along with a spectrophotometry method to estimate the potential for prussic acid (HCNp) of sorghum and sudangrasses over three stages maturities. It was shown that the GC produced higher HCNp estimates than the spectrophotometer for the grain sorghums, but lower concentrations for the sudangrass. Based on what is known about the analytical process of each method, the GC data is likely closer to the true HCNp concentrations of the forages. Both the GC and spectrophotometry methods yielded robust equations with the NIRS method; however, using GC as the calibration method resulted in more accurate and repeatable estimates. The HCNp values obtained from using the GC quantification method are believed to be closer to the actual values of the forage, and that use of this method will provide a more accurate and easily automated means of quantifying prussic acid. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Quantifying fossil fuel CO2 from continuous measurements of APO: a novel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickers, Penelope; Manning, Andrew C.; Forster, Grant L.; van der Laan, Sander; Wilson, Phil A.; Wenger, Angelina; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Oram, David E.; Sturges, William T.

2016-04-01

Using atmospheric measurements to accurately quantify CO2 emissions from fossil fuel sources requires the separation of biospheric and anthropogenic CO2 fluxes. The ability to quantify the fossil fuel component of CO2 (ffCO2) from atmospheric measurements enables more accurate 'top-down' verification of CO2 emissions inventories, which frequently have large uncertainty. Typically, ffCO2 is quantified (in ppm units) from discrete atmospheric measurements of Δ14CO2, combined with higher resolution atmospheric CO measurements, and with knowledge of CO:ffCO2 ratios. In the United Kingdom (UK), however, measurements of Δ14CO2 are often significantly biased by nuclear power plant influences, which limit the use of this approach. We present a novel approach for quantifying ffCO2 using measurements of APO (Atmospheric Potential Oxygen; a tracer derived from concurrent measurements of CO2 and O2) from two measurement sites in Norfolk, UK. Our approach is similar to that used for quantifying ffCO2 from CO measurements (ffCO2(CO)), whereby ffCO2(APO) = (APOmeas - APObg)/RAPO, where (APOmeas - APObg) is the APO deviation from the background, and RAPO is the APO:CO2 combustion ratio for fossil fuel. Time varying values of RAPO are calculated from the global gridded COFFEE (CO2 release and Oxygen uptake from Fossil Fuel Emission Estimate) dataset, combined with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) transport model footprints. We compare our ffCO2(APO) results to results obtained using the ffCO2(CO) method, using CO:CO2 fossil fuel emission ratios (RCO) from the EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) database. We find that the APO ffCO2 quantification method is more precise than the CO method, owing primarily to a smaller range of possible APO:CO2 fossil fuel emission ratios, compared to the CO:CO2 emission ratio range. Using a long-term dataset of atmospheric O2, CO2, CO and Δ14CO2 from Lutjewad, The Netherlands, we examine the

Use of a mobile terrestrial laser system to quantify the impact of rigid coastal protective structures on sandy beaches, Quebec, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van-Wierts, S.; Bernatchez, P.

2012-04-01

Coastal erosion is an important issue within the St-Lawrence estuary and gulf, especially in zones of unconsolidated material. Wide beaches are important coastal environments; they act as a buffer against breaking waves by absorbing and dissipating their energy, thus reducing the rate of coastal erosion. They also offer protection to humans and nearby ecosystems, providing habitat for plants, animals and lifeforms such as algae and microfauna. Conventional methods, such as aerial photograph analysis, fail to adequately quantify the morphosedimentary behavior of beaches at the scale of a hydrosedimentary cells. The lack of reliable and quantitative data leads to considerable errors of overestimation and underestimation of sediment budgets. To address these gaps and to minimize acquisition costs posed by airborne LiDAR survey, a mobile terrestrial LiDAR has been set up to acquire topographic data of the coastal zone. The acquisition system includes a LiDAR sensor, a high precision navigation system (GPS-INS) and a video camera. Comparison of LiDAR data with 1050 DGPS control points shows a vertical mean absolute error of 0.1 m in beach areas. The extracted data is used to calculate sediment volumes, widths, slopes, and a sediment budget index. A high accuracy coastal characterization is achieved through the integration of laser data and video. The main objective of this first project using this system is to quantify the impact of rigid coastal protective structures on sediment budget and beach morphology. Results show that the average sediment volume of beaches located before a rock armour barrier (12 m3/m) were three times narrower than for natural beaches (35,5 m3/m). Natural beaches were also found to have twice the width (25.4 m) of the beaches bordering inhabited areas (12.7 m). The development of sediment budget index for beach areas is an excellent proxy to quickly identify deficit areas and therefore the coastal segments most at risk of erosion. The obtained

Quantifying the net social benefits of vehicle trip reductions : guidance for customizing the TRIMMS(c) model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

This study details the development of a series of enhancements to the Trip Reduction Impacts of : Mobility Management Strategies (TRIMMS) model. TRIMMS allows quantifying the net social : benefits of a wide range of transportation demand management...

Quantifying the potential for low-level transport of black carbon emissions from cropland burning in Russia to the snow-covered Arctic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Joanne V.; Loboda, Tatiana V.

2017-12-01

Short-lived aerosols and pollutants transported from northern mid-latitudes have amplified the short term warming in the Arctic region. Among those black carbon is recognized as the second most important human emission in regards to climate forcing, behind carbon dioxide, with a total climate forcing of +1.1Wm-2. Studies have suggested that cropland burning may be a large contributor to the black carbon emissions which are directly deposited on the snow in the Arctic. However, commonly applied atmospheric transport models rely on estimates of black carbon emissions from cropland burning which are known to be highly inaccurate in both the amount and the timing of release. Instead, this study quantifies the potential for the deposition of hypothetical black carbon emissions from known cropland burning in Russia, identified by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire detections, through low-level transport to the snow in the Arctic using wind vectors from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ ERA-Interim Reanalysis product. Our results confirm that Russian cropland burning is a potentially significant source of black carbon deposition on the Arctic snow in the spring despite the low injection heights associated with cropland burning. Approximately 10% of the observed spring (March - May) cropland active fires (7% annual) likely contribute to black carbon deposition on the Arctic snow from as far south as at least 40°N. Furthermore, our results show that potential spring black carbon emissions from cropland burning in Russia can be deposited beyond 80°N, however, the majority ( 90% - depending on injection height) of all potential spring deposition occurs below 75°N.

Quantifying spatial distribution of spurious mixing in ocean models.

PubMed

Ilıcak, Mehmet

2016-12-01

Numerical mixing is inevitable for ocean models due to tracer advection schemes. Until now, there is no robust way to identify the regions of spurious mixing in ocean models. We propose a new method to compute the spatial distribution of the spurious diapycnic mixing in an ocean model. This new method is an extension of available potential energy density method proposed by Winters and Barkan (2013). We test the new method in lock-exchange and baroclinic eddies test cases. We can quantify the amount and the location of numerical mixing. We find high-shear areas are the main regions which are susceptible to numerical truncation errors. We also test the new method to quantify the numerical mixing in different horizontal momentum closures. We conclude that Smagorinsky viscosity has less numerical mixing than the Leith viscosity using the same non-dimensional constant.

Stimfit: quantifying electrophysiological data with Python

PubMed Central

Guzman, Segundo J.; Schlögl, Alois; Schmidt-Hieber, Christoph

2013-01-01

Intracellular electrophysiological recordings provide crucial insights into elementary neuronal signals such as action potentials and synaptic currents. Analyzing and interpreting these signals is essential for a quantitative understanding of neuronal information processing, and requires both fast data visualization and ready access to complex analysis routines. To achieve this goal, we have developed Stimfit, a free software package for cellular neurophysiology with a Python scripting interface and a built-in Python shell. The program supports most standard file formats for cellular neurophysiology and other biomedical signals through the Biosig library. To quantify and interpret the activity of single neurons and communication between neurons, the program includes algorithms to characterize the kinetics of presynaptic action potentials and postsynaptic currents, estimate latencies between pre- and postsynaptic events, and detect spontaneously occurring events. We validate and benchmark these algorithms, give estimation errors, and provide sample use cases, showing that Stimfit represents an efficient, accessible and extensible way to accurately analyze and interpret neuronal signals. PMID:24600389

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER-AIDED TOMOGRAPHY TO VISUALIZE AND QUANTIFY BIOGENIC STRUCTURES IN MARINE SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

We used computer-aided tomography (CT) for 3D visualization and 2D analysis of

marine sediment cores from 3 stations (at 10, 75 and 118 m depths) with different environmental

impact. Biogenic structures such as tubes and burrows were quantified and compared among st...

THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels o...

CONFOCAL MICROSCOPY SYSTEM PERFORMANCE: FOUNDATIONS FOR QUANTIFYING CYTOMETRIC APPLICATIONS WITH SPECTROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The confocal laser-scanning microscopy (CLSM) has enormous potential in many biological fields. The goal of a CLSM is to acquire and quantify fluorescence and in some instruments acquire spectral characterization of the emitted signal. The accuracy of these measurements demands t...

A Measure of the Potential Impact of Hospital Community Health Activities on Population Health and Equity.

PubMed

Begun, James W; Kahn, Linda M; Cunningham, Brooke A; Malcolm, Jan K; Potthoff, Sandra

2017-12-13

Many hospitals in the United States are exploring greater investment in community health activities that address upstream causes of poor health. Develop and apply a measure to categorize and estimate the potential impact of hospitals' community health activities on population health and equity. We propose a scale of potential impact on population health and equity, based on the cliff analogy developed by Jones and colleagues. The scale is applied to the 317 activities reported in the community health needs assessment implementation plan reports of 23 health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul, Minnesota metropolitan area in 2015. Using a 5-point ordinal scale, we assigned a score of potential impact on population health and equity to each community health activity. A majority (50.2%) of health care organizations' community health activities are classified as addressing social determinants of health (level 4 on the 5-point scale), though very few (5.4%) address structural causes of health equity (level 5 on the 5-point scale). Activities that score highest on potential impact fall into the topic categories of "community health and connectedness" and "healthy lifestyles and wellness." Lower-scoring activities focus on sick or at-risk individuals, such as the topic category of "chronic disease prevention, management, and screening." Health care organizations in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area vary substantially in the potential impact of their aggregated community health activities. Hospitals can be significant contributors to investment in upstream community health programs. This article provides a scale that can be used not only by hospitals but by other health care and public health organizations to better align their community health strategies, investments, and partnerships with programming and policies that address the foundational causes of population health and equity within the communities they serve.

Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

PubMed

Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

2015-02-01

Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Quantifying the impact of early calcite cementation on the reservoir quality of carbonate rocks: A 3D process-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosa, Aleksandra; Wood, Rachel

2017-06-01

The reservoir properties of carbonate rocks are controlled by both deposition and diagenesis. The latter includes the early precipitation of calcite cements, which can exert a strong control on the evolution of subsequent diagenetic pathways. We quantify the impact of early marine cement growth in grainstones on evolving pore space by examining trends in the relationship between cementation and permeability using a 3D process-based model (Calcite3D). The model assumes varying proportions of polycrystalline and monocrystalline grain types, upon which we grow isopachous and syntaxial calcite cement types, respectively. We model two syntaxial cement shapes, compact and elongated, that approximate the geometries of typical rhombohedral calcite forms. Results demonstrate the effect of cement competition: an increasing proportion of monocrystalline grains creates stronger competition and a reduction in the impact of individual grains on final calcite cement volume and porosity. Isopachous cement is effective in closing pore throats and limiting permeability. We also show that the impact of syntaxial cement on porosity occlusion and therefore flow is highly dependent on monocrystalline grain location and the orientation of crystal axes. This demonstrates the importance of diagenetic overprint in controlling the evolution of rock properties, but also that this process can be essentially random. We also show that diagenesis alone can create notable heterogeneity in the permeability of carbonates. While Calcite3D is successful in modelling realistic changes in cement volumes and pore space morphology, modelled permeabilities (0.01 -30D) are above the range reported in reservoir grainstones due to the very high permeability of the initial synthetic sediment deposit (58.9D). Poroperm data generated by Calcite3D, however, exhibits a linear relationship between the logarithms of porosity and permeability with a high coefficient of determination, as observed in natural media.

Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

PubMed

Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

2016-12-01

Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

A simple method for quantifying jump loads in volleyball athletes.

PubMed

Charlton, Paula C; Kenneally-Dabrowski, Claire; Sheppard, Jeremy; Spratford, Wayne

2017-03-01

Evaluate the validity of a commercially available wearable device, the Vert, for measuring vertical displacement and jump count in volleyball athletes. Propose a potential method of quantifying external load during training and match play within this population. Validation study. The ability of the Vert device to measure vertical displacement in male, junior elite volleyball athletes was assessed against reference standard laboratory motion analysis. The ability of the Vert device to count jumps during training and match-play was assessed via comparison with retrospective video analysis to determine precision and recall. A method of quantifying external load, known as the load index (LdIx) algorithm was proposed using the product of the jump count and average kinetic energy. Correlation between two separate Vert devices and three-dimensional trajectory data were good to excellent for all jump types performed (r=0.83-0.97), with a mean bias of between 3.57-4.28cm. When matched against jumps identified through video analysis, the Vert demonstrated excellent precision (0.995-1.000) evidenced by a low number of false positives. The number of false negatives identified with the Vert was higher resulting in lower recall values (0.814-0.930). The Vert is a commercially available tool that has potential for measuring vertical displacement and jump count in elite junior volleyball athletes without the need for time-consuming analysis and bespoke software. Subsequently, allowing the collected data to better quantify load using the proposed algorithm (LdIx). Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Child pedestrian anthropometry: evaluation of potential impact points during a crash.

PubMed

Serre, Thierry; Lalys, Loïc; Bartoli, Christophe; Christia-Lotter, Amandine; Leonetti, Georges; Brunet, Christian

2010-11-01

This paper highlights the potential impact points of a child pedestrian during a crash with the front end of a vehicle. Child anthropometry was defined for ages between 3 and 15 years. It was based on the measurement of seven different segment body heights (knee, femur, pelvis, shoulder, neck, chin, vertex) performed on about 2,000 French children. For each dimension, the 5(th), 50(th) and 95(th) percentile values were reported, and the corresponding linear regression lines were given. Then these heights were confronted with three different vehicle shapes, corresponding to a passenger car, a sport utility vehicle and a light truck, to identify impact points. In particular, we show that the thigh is directly hit by the bumper for children above 12 years of age, whereas the head principally impacts the hood. The influence of child anthropometry on the pedestrian trajectory and the comparison with test procedures in regulation are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A non-destructive method for quantifying small-diameter woody biomass in southern pine forests

Treesearch

D. Andrew Scott; Rick Stagg; Morris Smith

2006-01-01

Quantifying the impact of silvicultural treatments on woody understory vegetation largely has been accomplished by destructive sampling or through estimates of frequency and coverage. In studies where repeated measures of understory biomass across large areas are needed, destructive sampling and percent cover estimates are not satisfactory. For example, estimates of...

The Potential for Altmetrics to Measure Other Types of Impact in Scientific Production: Academic and Social Impact Dynamics in Social Media and Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maricato, João de Melo; Vilan Filho, Jayme Leiro

2018-01-01

Introduction: Altmetrics is an area under construction, with a potential to study the impacts of academic products from social media data. It is believed that altmetrics can capture social and academic impacts, going beyond measures obtained using bibliometric and scientometric indicators. This research aimed to analyse aspects, characteristics…

Quantifying the clay content with borehole depth and impact on reservoir flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarath Kumar, Aaraellu D.; Chattopadhyay, Pallavi B.

2017-04-01

This study focuses on the application of reservoir well log data and 3D transient numerical model for proper optimization of flow dynamics and hydrocarbon potential. Fluid flow through porous media depends on clay content that controls porosity, permeability and pore pressure. The pressure dependence of permeability is more pronounced in tight formations. Therefore, preliminary clay concentration analysis and geo-mechanical characterizations have been done by using wells logs. The assumption of a constant permeability for a reservoir is inappropriate and therefore the study deals with impact of permeability variation for pressure-sensitive formation. The study started with obtaining field data from available well logs. Then, the mathematical models are developed to understand the efficient extraction of oil in terms of reservoir architecture, porosity and permeability. The fluid flow simulations have been done using COMSOL Multiphysics Software by choosing time dependent subsurface flow module that is governed by Darcy's law. This study suggests that the reservoir should not be treated as a single homogeneous structure with unique porosity and permeability. The reservoir parameters change with varying clay content and it should be considered for effective planning and extraction of oil. There is an optimum drawdown for maximum production with varying permeability in a reservoir.

An assessment of the potential health impacts of food reformulation.

PubMed

Leroy, P; Réquillart, V; Soler, L-G; Enderli, G

2016-06-01

Policies focused on food quality are intended to facilitate healthy choices by consumers, even those who are not fully informed about the links between food consumption and health. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the potential impact of such a food reformulation scenario on health outcomes. We first created reformulation scenarios adapted to the French characteristics of foods. After computing the changes in the nutrient intakes of representative consumers, we determined the health effects of these changes. To do so, we used the DIETRON health assessment model, which calculates the number of deaths avoided by changes in food and nutrient intakes. Depending on the reformulation scenario, the total impact of reformulation varies between 2408 and 3597 avoided deaths per year, which amounts to a 3.7-5.5% reduction in mortality linked to diseases considered in the DIETRON model. The impacts are much higher for men than for women and much higher for low-income categories than for high-income categories. These differences result from the differences in consumption patterns and initial disease prevalence among the various income categories. Even without any changes in consumers' behaviors, realistic food reformulation may have significant health outcomes.

Whole-slide imaging in pathology: the potential impact on PACS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horii, Steven C.

2007-03-01

Pathology, the medical specialty charged with the evaluation of macroscopic and microscopic aspects of disease, is increasingly turning to digital imaging. While the conventional tissue blocks and glass slides form an "archive" that pathology departments must maintain, digital images acquired from microscopes or digital slide scanners are increasingly used for telepathology, consultation, and intra-facility communication. Since many healthcare facilities are moving to "enterprise PACS" with departments in addition to radiology using the infrastructure of such systems, some understanding of the potential of whole-slide digital images is important. Network and storage designers, in particular, are very likely to be impacted if a significant number of such images are to be moved on, or stored (even temporarily) in, enterprise PACS. As an example, a typical commercial whole-slide imaging system typically generates 15 gigabytes per slide scanned (per focal plane). Many of these whole-slide scanners have a throughput of 1000 slides per day. If that full capacity is used and all the resulting digital data is moved to the enterprise PACS, it amounts to 15 terabytes per day; the amount of data a large radiology department might generate in a year or two. This paper will review both the clinical scenarios of whole-slide imaging as well as the resulting data volumes. The author will emphasize the potential PACS infrastructure impact of such huge data volumes.

The potential impact of a social redistribution of specific risk factors on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality: illustration of a method based on population attributable fractions.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Kulhánová, Ivana; Dahl, Espen; Deboosere, Patrick; Dzúrová, Dagmar; van Oyen, Herman; Rychtaríková, Jitka; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-01-01

Socioeconomic differences in health are a major challenge for public health. However, realistic estimates to what extent they are modifiable are scarce. This problem can be met through the systematic application of the population attributable fraction (PAF) to socioeconomic health inequalities. The authors used cause-specific mortality data by educational level from Belgium, Norway and Czech Republic and data on the prevalence of smoking, alcohol, lack of physical activity and high body mass index from national health surveys. Information on the impact of these risk factors on mortality comes from the epidemiological literature. The authors calculated PAFs to quantify the impact on socioeconomic health inequalities of a social redistribution of risk factors. The authors developed an Excel tool covering a wide range of possible scenarios and the authors compare the results of the PAF approach with a conventional regression. In a scenario where the whole population gets the risk factor prevalence currently seen among the highly educated inequalities in mortality can be reduced substantially. According to the illustrative results, the reduction of inequality for all risk factors combined varies between 26% among Czech men and 94% among Norwegian men. Smoking has the highest impact for both genders, and physical activity has more impact among women. After discussing the underlying assumptions of the PAF, the authors concluded that the approach is promising for estimating the extent to which health inequalities can be potentially reduced by interventions on specific risk factors. This reduction is likely to differ substantially between countries, risk factors and genders.

Supporting C2 Research and Evaluation: An Infrastructure and its Potential Impact

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

Potential Impact,” Empirical Software Engineering, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 405-435, 2005. http://sir.unl.edu [16] J. O. Engene , Terrorism in Western...Evaluation and Conference: Proceedings of the 3rd-6th DARPA Workshops, Morgan Kaufman Publishers, 1996. … [16] J. O. Engene , Terrorism in Western Europe

Potential approaches to the management of third-party impacts from groundwater transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skurray, James H.; Pannell, David J.

2012-08-01

Groundwater extraction can have varied and diffuse effects. Negative external effects may include costs imposed on other groundwater users and on surrounding ecosystems. Environmental damages are commonly not reflected in market transactions. Groundwater transfers have the potential to cause spatial redistribution, concentration, and qualitative transformation of the impacts from pumping. An economically and environmentally sound groundwater transfer scheme would ensure that marginal costs from trades do not exceed marginal benefits, accounting for all third-party impacts, including those of a non-monetary nature as well as delayed effects. This paper proposes a menu of possible management strategies that would help preclude unacceptable impacts by restricting transfers with certain attributes, ideally ensuring that permitted transfers are at least welfare-neutral. Management tools would require that transfers limit or reduce environmental impacts, and provide for the compensation of financial impacts. Three management tools are described. While these tools can limit impacts from a given level of extraction, they cannot substitute for sustainable overall withdrawal limits. Careful implementation of transfer limits and exchange rates, and the strategic use of management area boundaries, may enable a transfer system to restrict negative externalities mainly to monetary costs. Provision for compensation of these costs could be built into the system.

Potential Impact of Planned Andean Dams on the Amazon Fluvial Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, B.; Melack, J. M.; Dunne, T.; Barthem, R. B.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Sorribas, M.; Silva, U. L., Jr.

2016-12-01

Increased energy demand has led to plans for building 151 new dams in the western Amazon, mostly in the Andes Region. Historical data and simulation scenarios were used to explore potential impacts above and below six of the largest storage dams planned for the region. These impacts included: 1) reduction in the downstream sediment supply 2) reduction in the downstream nutrient supply, 3) attenuation of the downstream flood pulse and 4) increased greenhouse gas emissions. Together, the six dams are expected to reduce the total downstream supply of sediments, total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) from the Andes by 66, 65 and 49%, respectively. These large reductions in sediment and nutrient supplies will have major impacts on channel geomorphology, floodplain fertility and aquatic productivity. These impacts are expected to be greatest close to the dams but could also extend to the central Amazon floodplain and delta regions. The attenuation of the downstream flood pulse following impoundment is expected to alter the survival, phenology and growth patterns of floodplain vegetation and result in lower fish yields in the downstream regions closest to the dams. Greenhouse gas emissions above and below the dams are expected to increase, contributing to significantly higher regional and global emissions for dams. Gas fired power plants are suggested as a cleaner, less impactful alternative to meeting regional energy demands.

Influence of different gaps among the split targets with gradient potential to the discharge effects generated by hypervelocity impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Enling; Zhao, Liangliang; Han, Yafei; Zhang, Qingming; Wang, Ruizhi; He, Liping; Liu, Shuhua

2018-04-01

Due to the actual situation of spacecraft surface' charging, such as convex corners, weld line, whalebone and a multiple-interfaces with different materials, all these are main factors leading to uneven charging of spacecraft surface, even creating gradient potential. If the charging spacecraft surface is impacted by debris or micrometeor, discharge effect induced by impacting will pose a serious threat to spacecraft in orbit. So realizing spacecraft charging surface with different potential differences and grasping discharge characteristics are a decisive importance at the different experimental conditions in laboratory. To simulate the spacecraft surface with a gradient potential in laboratory, spacecraft surface is split into different parts, which different gaps reserved in 2 adjacent surface is added resistance to create different potential surfaces, and the high potential surface as a impact target in the split targets. Charging circuit system realizing different gradient potential and discharge test system are built by ourselves, combining with two-stage light gas gun loading system, six sets of experiments have been performed about hypervelocity impact on 2A12 aluminum split targets with gradient potentials. In the experiments, gaps of 2A12 aluminum target are the same among different parts in every experiments, the gaps of the split targets are 2mm, 3mm, 5mm, 7mm and 10mm in the experiments, respectively. And the applied voltage is 300V in all the experiments and high-potential 2A12 aluminum plate as the impact target. The experiments have been performed at the impact velocity of about 3km/s and the incidence angles of 60o and 90o (between projectile flying trajectory and target plane), respectively. Voltage probe and current probes are used for acquiring discharge voltages and currents during the process of the impact. The experimental results showed that the discharge induced by impact plasma were generated among high and low-potential target by forming

BOARD-INVITED REVIEW: Quantifying water use in ruminant production.

PubMed

Legesse, G; Ominski, K H; Beauchemin, K A; Pfister, S; Martel, M; McGeough, E J; Hoekstra, A Y; Kroebel, R; Cordeiro, M R C; McAllister, T A

2017-05-01

The depletion of water resources, in terms of both quantity and quality, has become a major concern both locally and globally. Ruminants, in particular, are under increased public scrutiny due to their relatively high water use per unit of meat or milk produced. Estimating the water footprint of livestock production is a relatively new field of research for which methods are still evolving. This review describes the approaches used to quantify water use in ruminant production systems as well as the methodological and conceptual issues associated with each approach. Water use estimates for the main products from ruminant production systems are also presented, along with possible management strategies to reduce water use. In the past, quantifying water withdrawal in ruminant production focused on the water demand for drinking or operational purposes. Recently, the recognition of water as a scarce resource has led to the development of several methodologies including water footprint assessment, life cycle assessment, and livestock water productivity to assess water use and its environmental impacts. These methods differ with respect to their target outcome (efficiency or environmental impacts), geographic focus (local or global), description of water sources (green, blue, and gray), handling of water quality concerns, the interpretation of environmental impacts, and the metric by which results are communicated (volumetric units or impact equivalents). Ruminant production is a complex activity where animals are often reared at different sites using a range of resources over their lifetime. Additional water use occurs during slaughter, product processing, and packaging. Estimating water use at the various stages of meat and milk production and communicating those estimates will help producers and other stakeholders identify hotspots and implement strategies to improve water use efficiency. Improvements in ruminant productivity (i.e., BW and milk production) and

Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Switching Branded Medications to Generics.

PubMed

Straka, Robert J; Keohane, Denis J; Liu, Larry Z

2017-05-01

Switching branded to generic medications has become a common cost-containment measure. Although this is an important objective for health care systems worldwide, the impact of this practice on patient outcomes needs to be carefully considered. We reviewed the literature summarizing the potential clinical and economic consequences of switching from branded to generic medications on patient outcomes. A literature search of peer-reviewed articles published 2003-2013 using key words of "generic switching" or "substitution" was conducted using PubMed, OvidSP, and ScienceDirect. Of 30 articles identified and reviewed, most were related to the diseases of the central nervous system, especially epilepsy. Based on our review, potential impacts of switching fell into 3 broad categories: patient attitudes and adherence, clinical and safety outcomes, and cost and resource utilization. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative to branded products, this may not always be the case. Specifically, several studies suggested that switching may negatively impact medication adherence, whereas other studies found that generic switching was associated with poorer clinical outcomes and more adverse events. In some instances, switching accomplished cost savings but did so at increased total cost of care because of increased physician visits or hospitalizations. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative, mandatory generic switching may lead to unintended consequences, especially in certain therapeutic areas. Although further study is warranted, based on our review, it may be medically justifiable for physicians and patients to retain the right to request the branded product in certain cases.

Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of Switching Branded Medications to Generics

PubMed Central

Straka, Robert J.; Keohane, Denis J.; Liu, Larry Z.

2017-01-01

Switching branded to generic medications has become a common cost-containment measure. Although this is an important objective for health care systems worldwide, the impact of this practice on patient outcomes needs to be carefully considered. We reviewed the literature summarizing the potential clinical and economic consequences of switching from branded to generic medications on patient outcomes. A literature search of peer-reviewed articles published 2003–2013 using key words of “generic switching” or “substitution” was conducted using PubMed, OvidSP, and ScienceDirect. Of 30 articles identified and reviewed, most were related to the diseases of the central nervous system, especially epilepsy. Based on our review, potential impacts of switching fell into 3 broad categories: patient attitudes and adherence, clinical and safety outcomes, and cost and resource utilization. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative to branded products, this may not always be the case. Specifically, several studies suggested that switching may negatively impact medication adherence, whereas other studies found that generic switching was associated with poorer clinical outcomes and more adverse events. In some instances, switching accomplished cost savings but did so at increased total cost of care because of increased physician visits or hospitalizations. Although in many cases generics may represent an appropriate alternative, mandatory generic switching may lead to unintended consequences, especially in certain therapeutic areas. Although further study is warranted, based on our review, it may be medically justifiable for physicians and patients to retain the right to request the branded product in certain cases. PMID:26099048

Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-10-01

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.