Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

2014-09-01

Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Defining High-Risk Precursor Signaling to Advance Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Prevention

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

KEYWORDS: 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Aim 1: Functional analysis of progenitor and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1Functional...and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1: Quantitation of LP (Luminal Progenitor) and basal stem cell (MASC) populations A. Quantitation of...LP and basal stem cell (MASC) populations We have continued to add patients to the cohorts between months 12 and 24. (This reporting period

78 FR 43838 - Airworthiness Directives; Hamilton Sundstrand Corporation Propellers

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

... qualitative risk assessment. The data gathered was then used for a more representative quantitative risk analysis. The results from the bond strength tests predicts a significantly lower fleet risk than the prior... predicts a significantly lower fleet risk than the prior qualitative analysis. Accordingly, we withdraw the...

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

2014-11-20

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Inconsistencies in reporting risk information: a pilot analysis of online news coverage of West Nile Virus.

PubMed

Birnbrauer, Kristina; Frohlich, Dennis Owen; Treise, Debbie

2017-09-01

West Nile Virus (WNV) has been reported as one of the worst epidemics in US history. This study sought to understand how WNV news stories were framed and how risk information was portrayed from its 1999 arrival in the US through the year 2012. The authors conducted a quantitative content analysis of online news articles obtained through Google News ( N = 428). The results of this analysis were compared to the CDC's ArboNET surveillance system. The following story frames were identified in this study: action, conflict, consequence, new evidence, reassurance and uncertainty, with the action frame appearing most frequently. Risk was communicated quantitatively without context in the majority of articles, and only in 2006, the year with the third-highest reported deaths, was risk reported with statistical accuracy. The results from the analysis indicated that at-risk communities were potentially under-informed as accurate risks were not communicated. This study offers evidence about how disease outbreaks are covered in relation to actual disease surveillance data.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

PubMed

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

PubMed

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENTS FOR MUNICIPAL WASTE COMBUSTORS

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative health risk assessments have been performed for a number of proposed municipal waste combustor (MWC) facilities over the past several years. his article presents the results of a comparative analysis of a total of 21 risk assessments, focusing on seven of the most co...

Evaluating a multi-criteria model for hazard assessment in urban design. The Porto Marghera case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luria, Paolo; Aspinall, Peter A

2003-08-01

The aim of this paper is to describe a new approach to major industrial hazard assessment, which has been recently studied by the authors in conjunction with the Italian Environmental Protection Agency ('ARPAV'). The real opportunity for developing a different approach arose from the need of the Italian EPA to provide the Venice Port Authority with an appropriate estimation of major industrial hazards in Porto Marghera, an industrial estate near Venice (Italy). However, the standard model, the quantitative risk analysis (QRA), only provided a list of individual quantitative risk values, related to single locations. The experimental model is based onmore » a multi-criteria approach--the Analytic Hierarchy Process--which introduces the use of expert opinions, complementary skills and expertise from different disciplines in conjunction with quantitative traditional analysis. This permitted the generation of quantitative data on risk assessment from a series of qualitative assessments, on the present situation and on three other future scenarios, and use of this information as indirect quantitative measures, which could be aggregated for obtaining the global risk rate. This approach is in line with the main concepts proposed by the last European directive on Major Hazard Accidents, which recommends increasing the participation of operators, taking the other players into account and, moreover, paying more attention to the concepts of 'urban control', 'subjective risk' (risk perception) and intangible factors (factors not directly quantifiable)« less

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Nicholas, Austin; Alibay, Farah; Parrish, Joseph

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

76 FR 28819 - NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0109] NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software..., ``Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection Systems of Nuclear Power Plants... of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

PubMed

Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

2018-06-05

Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p < 0.007 for both operators). Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p < 0.0001, for each paired combination of two operators and two radiologists). Interoperator and intraoperator agreement in the quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative measurement of BPU, defined as the ratio of average counts in fibroglandular tissue relative to that in fat, can be reliably performed by nonradiologist operators with a simple region-of-interest analysis tool. Similar to results obtained with subjective BPU categories, quantitative BPU is a functional imaging biomarker of breast cancer risk, independent of mammographic density and hormonal factors.

Approaches to acceptable risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whipple, C

Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, inmore » a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.« less

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lepinski, James

2013-09-30

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and themore » potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO{sub 2}-ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.« less

Framework Analysis for Determining Mode of Action & Human Relevance

EPA Science Inventory

The overall aim of a cancer risk assessment is to characterize the risk to humans from environmental exposures. This risk characterization includes a qualitative and quantitative risk characterization that relies on the development of separate hazard, dose- response and exposure...

Risk manager formula for success: Influencing decision making.

PubMed

Midgley, Mike

2017-10-01

Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.

PubMed

Kerestecioğlu, Merih

2016-09-01

The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow. © The Author(s) 2016.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

2016-05-01

Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the relationships between genetic damage and disease, and the concomitant ability to use genetic toxicity results per se. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2016. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Health.

Analysis and Derivation of Allocations for Fiber Contaminants in Liquid Bipropellant Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowrey, N. M; ibrahim, K. Y.

2012-01-01

An analysis was performed to identify the engineering rationale for the existing particulate limits in MSFC-SPEC-164, Cleanliness of Components for Use in Oxygen, Fuel, and Pneumatic Systems, determine the applicability of this rationale to fibers, identify potential risks that may result from fiber contamination in liquid oxygen/fuel bipropellant systems, and bound each of these risks. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether fiber contamination exceeding the established quantitative limits for particulate can be tolerated in these systems and, if so, to derive and recommend quantitative allocations for fibers beyond the limits established for other particulate. Knowledge gaps were identified that limit a complete understanding of the risk of promoted ignition from an accumulation of fibers in a gaseous oxygen system.

Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

PubMed

Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

2017-03-01

Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Household physical activity and cancer risk: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Shi, Yun; Li, Tingting; Wang, Ying; Zhou, Lingling; Qin, Qin; Yin, Jieyun; Wei, Sheng; Liu, Li; Nie, Shaofa

2015-01-01

Controversial results of the association between household physical activity and cancer risk were reported among previous epidemiological studies. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the relationship of household physical activity and cancer risk quantitatively, especially in dose-response manner. PubMed, Embase, Web of science and the Cochrane Library were searched for cohort or case-control studies that examined the association between household physical activity and cancer risks. Random–effect models were conducted to estimate the summary relative risks (RRs), nonlinear or linear dose–response meta-analyses were performed to estimate the trend from the correlated log RR estimates across levels of household physical activity quantitatively. Totally, 30 studies including 41 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Total cancer risks were reduced 16% among the people with highest household physical activity compared to those with lowest household physical activity (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.76–0.93). The dose-response analyses indicated an inverse linear association between household physical activity and cancer risk. The relative risk was 0.98 (95% CI = 0.97–1.00) for per additional 10 MET-hours/week and it was 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98–0.99) for per 1 hour/week increase. These findings provide quantitative data supporting household physical activity is associated with decreased cancer risk in dose-response effect. PMID:26443426

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2017-12-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2018-06-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

Dose-Response Association Between Physical Activity and Incident Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Liu, Xuejiao; Zhang, Dongdong; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Han, Chengyi; Wang, Bingyuan; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhou, Junmei; Zhao, Yang; Shi, Yuanyuan; Hu, Dongsheng; Zhang, Ming

2017-05-01

Despite the inverse association between physical activity (PA) and incident hypertension, a comprehensive assessment of the quantitative dose-response association between PA and hypertension has not been reported. We performed a meta-analysis, including dose-response analysis, to quantitatively evaluate this association. We searched PubMed and Embase databases for articles published up to November 1, 2016. Random effects generalized least squares regression models were used to assess the quantitative association between PA and hypertension risk across studies. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. We identified 22 articles (29 studies) investigating the risk of hypertension with leisure-time PA or total PA, including 330 222 individuals and 67 698 incident cases of hypertension. The risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.96) with each 10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk increment of leisure-time PA. We found no evidence of a nonlinear dose-response association of PA and hypertension ( P nonlinearity =0.094 for leisure-time PA and 0.771 for total PA). With the linear cubic spline model, when compared with inactive individuals, for those who met the guidelines recommended minimum level of moderate PA (10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk), the risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.97). This meta-analysis suggests that additional benefits for hypertension prevention occur as the amount of PA increases. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

PubMed Central

Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

Critical Race Quantitative Intersections: A "testimonio" Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Covarrubias, Alejandro; Nava, Pedro E.; Lara, Argelia; Burciaga, Rebeca; Vélez, Verónica N.; Solorzano, Daniel G.

2018-01-01

The educational pipeline has become a commonly referenced depiction of educational outcomes for racialized groups across the country. While visually impactful, an overreliance on decontextualized quantitative data often leads to majoritarian interpretations. Without sociohistorical contexts, these interpretations run the risk of perpetuating…

Bayes` theorem and quantitative risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaplan, S.

1994-12-31

This paper argues that for a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to be useful for public and private decision making, and for rallying the support necessary to implement those decisions, it is necessary that the QRA results be ``trustable.`` Trustable means that the results are based solidly and logically on all the relevant evidence available. This, in turn, means that the quantitative results must be derived from the evidence using Bayes` theorem. Thus, it argues that one should strive to make their QRAs more clearly and explicitly Bayesian, and in this way make them more ``evidence dependent`` than ``personality dependent.``

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

PubMed

Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

2014-03-17

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

Integrated Quantitative Cancer Risk Assessment of Inorganic Arsenic

EPA Science Inventory

This paper attempts to make an integrated risk assessment of arsenic, using data on humans exposed to arsenic via inhalation and ingestion. he data useful for making an integrated analysis and data gaps are discussed. rsenic provides a rare opportunity to compare the cancer risk ...

Quantitative Method for Analyzing the Allocation of Risks in Transportation Construction

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-04-01

The report presents a conceptual model of risk that was developed to analyze the impact on owner's cost of alternate allocations of risk among owner and contractor in mass transit construction. A model and analysis procedure are developed, based on d...

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco

Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order tomore » define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.« less

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Huang, Yong-Sheng; Fan, Qian-Qian; Li, Chuang; Nie, Meng; Quan, Hong-Yang; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF THE SEA URCHIN, ARBACIA PUNTULATA, TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

An estuarine ecological risk assessment for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS) Kittery, ME, was conducted utilizing the U.S. EPA's Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). As part of the analysis phase of the ERA, laboratory studies were conducted to develop quantitative ...

An Analysis of Enterprise Risk Management and IT Effectiveness Constructs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waithe, Errol

2016-01-01

One major problem many organizations are facing is balancing the risk-management practices of the organization with overall information technology (IT) effectiveness. The purpose of this non-experimental quantitative correlational study was to assess the constructs and correlations associated with enterprise risk management and IT effectiveness.…

Potential predictors of risk sexual behavior among private college students in Mekelle City, North Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gebresllasie, Fanna; Tsadik, Mache; Berhane, Eyoel

2017-01-01

Risk sexual practice among students from public universities/colleges is common in Ethiopia. However, little has been known about risk sexual behavior of students in private colleges where more students are potentially enrolled. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude of risky sexual behaviors and predictors among students of Private Colleges in Mekelle City. A mixed design of both quantitative and qualitative methods was used among 627 randomly selected students of private colleges from February to march 2013. Self administered questionnaire and focus group discussion was used to collect data. A thematic content analysis was used for the qualitative part. For the quantitative study, Univariate, Bivariate and multivariable analysis was made using SPSS version 16 statistical package and p value less than 0.05 was used as cut off point for a statistical significance. Among the total 590 respondents, 151 (29.1%) have ever had sex. Among the sexually active students, 30.5% reported having had multiple sexual partners and consistent condom use was nearly 39%. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, variables such as sex, age group, sex last twelve months and condom use last twelve months was found significantly associated with risky sexual behavior. The findings of qualitative and quantitative study showed consistency in presence of risk factors. Finding of this study showed sexual risk behaviors is high among private colleges such as multiple sexual partners and substance use. So that colleges should emphasis on promoting healthy sexual and reproductive health programs.

[A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

2015-05-01

To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

PubMed

Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

2015-09-01

This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazardsmore » from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.« less

Analysis and classification of the tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines.

PubMed

Paques, Joseph-Jean; Gauthier, François; Perez, Alejandro

2007-01-01

To assess and plan future risk-analysis research projects, 275 documents describing methods and tools for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines or with other sectors such as the military, and the nuclear and aeronautics industries, etc., were collected. These documents were in the format of published books or papers, standards, technical guides and company procedures collected throughout industry. From the collected documents, 112 documents were selected for analysis; 108 methods applied or potentially applicable for assessing the risks associated with industrial machines were analyzed and classified. This paper presents the main quantitative results of the analysis of the methods and tools.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Food Consumption and Handling Survey for Quantitative Microbiological Consumer Phase Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Chardon, Jurgen; Swart, Arno

2016-07-01

In the consumer phase of a typical quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), mathematical equations identify data gaps. To acquire useful data we designed a food consumption and food handling survey (2,226 respondents) for QMRA applications that is especially aimed at obtaining quantitative data. For a broad spectrum of food products, the survey covered the following topics: processing status at retail, consumer storage, preparation, and consumption. Questions were designed to facilitate distribution fitting. In the statistical analysis, special attention was given to the selection of the most adequate distribution to describe the data. Bootstrap procedures were used to describe uncertainty. The final result was a coherent quantitative consumer phase food survey and parameter estimates for food handling and consumption practices in The Netherlands, including variation over individuals and uncertainty estimates.

Note of the methodological flaws in the paper entitled "Polymorphisms in IL-4/IL-13 pathway genes and glioma risk: an updated meta-analysis".

PubMed

Wang, Ting-Ting; Li, Jin-Mei; Zhou, Dong

2016-01-01

With great interest, we read the paper "Polymorphisms in IL-4/IL-13 pathway genes and glioma risk: an updated meta-analysis" (by Chen PQ et al.) [1], which has reached important conclusions about the relationship between polymorphisms in interleukin (IL)-4/IL-13 pathway genes and glioma risk. Through quantitative analysis, the meta-analysis found no association between IL-4/IL-13 pathway genetic polymorphisms and glioma risk (Chen et al. in Tumor Biol 36:121-127, 2015). The meta-analysis is the most comprehensive study of polymorphisms in the IL-4/IL-13 pathway and glioma risk. Nevertheless, some deficiencies still exist in this meta-analysis that we would like to raise.

A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

QUANTITATIVE TOXICOPROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF CARCINOGEN-TREATED ANIMAL TISSUES AND HUMAN CELLS FOR HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Humans are exposed to a variety of environmental toxicants, and this together with a large number of interacting factors can contribute to an individual's risk for health. To understand the toxic mechanisms and/or modes of action for human health risk assessment, molecular charac...

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Depression as a risk factor for dementia and mild cognitive impairment: a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Gao, Yuan; Huang, Changquan; Zhao, Kexiang; Ma, Louyan; Qiu, Xuan; Zhang, Lei; Xiu, Yun; Chen, Lin; Lu, Wei; Huang, Chunxia; Tang, Yong; Xiao, Qian

2013-05-01

This study examined whether depression was a risk factor for onset of dementia including Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia (VD) and any dementia, and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by using a quantitative meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. EMBASE and MEDLINE were searched for articles published up to February 2011. All studies that examined the relationship between depression and the onset of dementia or MCI were included. Pooled relative risk was calculated using fixed-effects models. Twelve studies met our inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis. All subjects were without dementia or MCI at baseline. Four, two, five, and four studies compared the incidence of AD, VD, any dementia, and MCI between subjects with or without depression, respectively. After pooling all the studies, subjects with depression had higher incidence of AD (relative risk (RR):1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-2.14), VD (RR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.19-3.01), any dementia (RR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.31-2.83), and MCI (RR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.53-2.54) than those without depression. The quantitative meta-analysis showed that depression was a major risk factor for incidence of dementia (including AD, VD, and any dementia) and MCI. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

Correlation of genetic risk and messenger RNA expression in a Th17/IL23 pathway analysis in inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Fransen, Karin; van Sommeren, Suzanne; Westra, Harm-Jan; Veenstra, Monique; Lamberts, Letitia E; Modderman, Rutger; Dijkstra, Gerard; Fu, Jingyuan; Wijmenga, Cisca; Franke, Lude; Weersma, Rinse K; van Diemen, Cleo C

2014-05-01

The Th17/IL23 pathway has both genetically and biologically been implicated in the pathogenesis of the inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. So far, it is unknown whether and how associated risk variants affect expression of the genes encoding for Th17/IL23 pathway proteins. Ten IBD-associated SNPs residing near Th17/IL23 genes were used to construct a genetic risk model in 753 Dutch IBD cases and 1045 controls. In an independent cohort of 40 Crohn's disease, 40 ulcerative colitis, and 40 controls, the genetic risk load and presence of IBD were correlated to quantitative PCR-generated messenger RNA (mRNA) expression of 9 representative Th17/IL23 genes in both unstimulated and PMA/CaLo stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells. In 1240 individuals with various immunological diseases with whole genome genotype and mRNA-expression data, we also assessed correlation between genetic risk load and differential mRNA expression and sought for SNPs affecting expression of all currently known Th17/IL23 pathway genes (cis-expression quantitative trait locus). The presence of IBD, but not the genetic risk load, was correlated to differential mRNA expression for IL6 in unstimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells and to IL23A and RORC in response to stimulation. The cis-expression quantitative trait locus analysis showed little evidence for correlation between genetic risk load and mRNA expression of Th17/IL23 genes, because we identified for only 2 of 22 Th17/IL23 genes a cis-expression quantitative trait locus single nucleotide polymorphism that is also associated to IBD (STAT3 and CCR6). Our results suggest that only the presence of IBD and not the genetic risk load alters mRNA expression levels of IBD-associated Th17/IL23 genes.

Consumers' behavior in quantitative microbial risk assessment for pathogens in raw milk: Incorporation of the likelihood of consumption as a function of storage time and temperature.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Paterlini, Franco; Rizzi, Rita; Guitian, Javier

2016-02-01

Foodborne disease as a result of raw milk consumption is an increasing concern in Western countries. Quantitative microbial risk assessment models have been used to estimate the risk of illness due to different pathogens in raw milk. In these models, the duration and temperature of storage before consumption have a critical influence in the final outcome of the simulations and are usually described and modeled as independent distributions in the consumer phase module. We hypothesize that this assumption can result in the computation, during simulations, of extreme scenarios that ultimately lead to an overestimation of the risk. In this study, a sensorial analysis was conducted to replicate consumers' behavior. The results of the analysis were used to establish, by means of a logistic model, the relationship between time-temperature combinations and the probability that a serving of raw milk is actually consumed. To assess our hypothesis, 2 recently published quantitative microbial risk assessment models quantifying the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis related to the consumption of raw milk were implemented. First, the default settings described in the publications were kept; second, the likelihood of consumption as a function of the length and temperature of storage was included. When results were compared, the density of computed extreme scenarios decreased significantly in the modified model; consequently, the probability of illness and the expected number of cases per year also decreased. Reductions of 11.6 and 12.7% in the proportion of computed scenarios in which a contaminated milk serving was consumed were observed for the first and the second study, respectively. Our results confirm that overlooking the time-temperature dependency may yield to an important overestimation of the risk. Furthermore, we provide estimates of this dependency that could easily be implemented in future quantitative microbial risk assessment models of raw milk pathogens. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented for demonstration purposes, where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power networks is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noninvasive Biomonitoring Approaches to Determine Dosimetry and Risk Following Acute Chemical Exposure: Analysis of Lead or Organophosphate Insecticide in Saliva

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timchalk, Chuck; Poet, Torka S.; Kousba, Ahmed A.

2004-04-01

There is a need to develop approaches for assessing risk associated with acute exposures to a broad-range of chemical agents and to rapidly determine the potential implications to human health. Non-invasive biomonitoring approaches are being developed using reliable portable analytical systems to quantitate dosimetry utilizing readily obtainable body fluids, such as saliva. Saliva has been used to evaluate a broad range of biomarkers, drugs, and environmental contaminants including heavy metals and pesticides. To advance the application of non-invasive biomonitoring a microfluidic/ electrochemical device has also been developed for the analysis of lead (Pb), using square wave anodic stripping voltammetry. Themore » system demonstrates a linear response over a broad concentration range (1 2000 ppb) and is capable of quantitating saliva Pb in rats orally administered acute doses of Pb-acetate. Appropriate pharmacokinetic analyses have been used to quantitate systemic dosimetry based on determination of saliva Pb concentrations. In addition, saliva has recently been used to quantitate dosimetry following exposure to the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos in a rodent model system by measuring the major metabolite, trichloropyridinol, and saliva cholinesterase inhibition following acute exposures. These results suggest that technology developed for non-invasive biomonitoring can provide a sensitive, and portable analytical tool capable of assessing exposure and risk in real-time. By coupling these non-invasive technologies with pharmacokinetic modeling it is feasible to rapidly quantitate acute exposure to a broad range of chemical agents. In summary, it is envisioned that once fully developed, these monitoring and modeling approaches will be useful for accessing acute exposure and health risk.« less

Quantitative genetic tools for insecticide resistance risk assessment: estimating the heritability of resistance

Treesearch

Michael J. Firko; Jane Leslie Hayes

1990-01-01

Quantitative genetic studies of resistance can provide estimates of genetic parameters not available with other types of genetic analyses. Three methods are discussed for estimating the amount of additive genetic variation in resistance to individual insecticides and subsequent estimation of heritability (h2) of resistance. Sibling analysis and...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Genetics of Variation in Serum Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Mexican Americans

PubMed Central

Voruganti, V. Saroja; Nath, Subrata D.; Cole, Shelley A.; Thameem, Farook; Jowett, Jeremy B.; Bauer, Richard; MacCluer, Jean W.; Blangero, John; Comuzzie, Anthony G.; Abboud, Hanna E.; Arar, Nedal H.

2009-01-01

Background: Elevated serum uric acid is associated with several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and obesity. However, the role of uric acid as an independent risk factor for CVD is not yet clear. Objective: The aim of the study was to localize quantitative trait loci regulating variation in serum uric acid and also establish the relationship between serum uric acid and other CVD risk factors in Mexican Americans (n = 848; men = 310, women = 538) participating in the San Antonio Family Heart Study. Methods: Quantitative genetic analysis was conducted using variance components decomposition method, implemented in the software program SOLAR. Results: Mean ± sd of serum uric acid was 5.35 ± 1.38 mg/dl. Univariate genetic analysis showed serum uric acid and other CVD risk markers to be significantly heritable (P < 0.005). Bivariate analysis showed significant correlation of serum uric acid with body mass index, waist circumference, waist/hip ratio, total body fat, plasma insulin, serum triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (P < 0.05). A genome-wide scan for detecting quantitative trait loci regulating serum uric acid variation showed a significant logarithm of odds (LOD) score of 4.72 (empirical LOD score = 4.62; P < 0.00001) on chromosome 3p26. One LOD support interval contains 25 genes, of which an interesting candidate gene is chemokine receptor 2. Summary: There is a significant genetic component in the variation in serum uric acid and evidence of pleiotropy between serum uric acid and other cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:19001525

Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Through a Bi-Directional Road Tunnel.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; De Guglielmo, Maria Luisa

2017-01-01

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

[Application of risk-based approach for determination of critical factors in technology transfer of production of medicinal products].

PubMed

Beregovykh, V V; Spitskiy, O R

2014-01-01

Risk-based approach is used for examination of impact of different factors on quality of medicinal products in technology transfer. A general diagram is offered for risk analysis execution in technology transfer from pharmaceutical development to production. When transferring technology to full- scale commercial production it is necessary to investigate and simulate production process application beforehand in new real conditions. The manufacturing process is the core factorfor risk analysis having the most impact on quality attributes of a medicinal product. Further importantfactors are linked to materials and products to be handled and manufacturing environmental conditions such as premises, equipment and personnel. Usage of risk-based approach in designing of multipurpose production facility of medicinal products is shown where quantitative risk analysis tool RAMM (Risk Analysis and Mitigation Matrix) was applied.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Managing forest disturbances and community responses: lessons from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska.

Treesearch

Courtney G. Flint; Richard Haynes

2006-01-01

Managing forest disturbances can be complicated by diverse human community responses. Interview and quantitative analysis of mail surveys were used to assess risk perceptions and community actions in response to forest disturbance by spruce bark beetles. Despite high risk perception of immediate threats to personal safety and property, risk perceptions of broader...

76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Nanotechnology in Dutch science cafés: Public risk perceptions contextualised.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Anne M; Critchley, Christine R

2016-01-01

Understanding public perceptions of and attitudes to nanotechnology is important in order to understand and facilitate processes of dialogue and public participation. This research quantitatively analysed risk perceptions and attitudes of Dutch science café participants (n = 233) and compared these with members of the Dutch public (n = 378) who had not attended a café but were interested in science and technology as well. A qualitative analysis of the meetings contextualised and enriched the quantitative findings. Both groups shared similar key attitudes and were positive about nanotechnology while the Dutch café participants were even more positive about nanotechnology than the group of non-participants. The perception that nanotechnology would lead to risk applications was only predictive of attitudes for the non-participants. The qualitative analysis showed that café participants and speakers considered discussion of the risks, benefits and related issues important. Further research could investigate how science cafés can play a role in the science-society debate. © The Author(s) 2014.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis;

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Lodge, David M; Finnoff, David; Shogren, Jason F; Lewis, Mark A; Lamberti, Gary

2002-12-07

Numbers of non-indigenous species--species introduced from elsewhere - are increasing rapidly worldwide, causing both environmental and economic damage. Rigorous quantitative risk-analysis frameworks, however, for invasive species are lacking. We need to evaluate the risks posed by invasive species and quantify the relative merits of different management strategies (e.g. allocation of resources between prevention and control). We present a quantitative bioeconomic modelling framework to analyse risks from non-indigenous species to economic activity and the environment. The model identifies the optimal allocation of resources to prevention versus control, acceptable invasion risks and consequences of invasion to optimal investments (e.g. labour and capital). We apply the model to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), and show that society could benefit by spending up to US$324 000 year(-1) to prevent invasions into a single lake with a power plant. By contrast, the US Fish and Wildlife Service spent US$825 000 in 2001 to manage all aquatic invaders in all US lakes. Thus, greater investment in prevention is warranted.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Analysis of perceived risk among construction workers: a cross-cultural study and reflection on the Hofstede model.

PubMed

Martinez-Fiestas, Myriam; Rodríguez-Garzón, Ignacio; Delgado-Padial, Antonio; Lucas-Ruiz, Valeriano

2017-09-01

This article presents a cross-cultural study on perceived risk in the construction industry. Worker samples from three different countries were studied: Spain, Peru and Nicaragua. The main goal was to explain how construction workers perceive their occupational hazard and to analyze how this is related to their national culture. The model used to measure perceived risk was the psychometric paradigm. The results show three very similar profiles, indicating that risk perception is independent of nationality. A cultural analysis was conducted using the Hofstede model. The results of this analysis and the relation to perceived risk showed that risk perception in construction is independent of national culture. Finally, a multiple lineal regression analysis was conducted to determine what qualitative attributes could predict the global quantitative size of risk perception. All of the findings have important implications regarding the management of safety in the workplace.

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

2011-01-01

As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

Genetic Variants Associated With Quantitative Glucose Homeostasis Traits Translate to Type 2 Diabetes in Mexican Americans: The GUARDIAN (Genetics Underlying Diabetes in Hispanics) Consortium.

PubMed

Palmer, Nicholette D; Goodarzi, Mark O; Langefeld, Carl D; Wang, Nan; Guo, Xiuqing; Taylor, Kent D; Fingerlin, Tasha E; Norris, Jill M; Buchanan, Thomas A; Xiang, Anny H; Haritunians, Talin; Ziegler, Julie T; Williams, Adrienne H; Stefanovski, Darko; Cui, Jinrui; Mackay, Adrienne W; Henkin, Leora F; Bergman, Richard N; Gao, Xiaoyi; Gauderman, James; Varma, Rohit; Hanis, Craig L; Cox, Nancy J; Highland, Heather M; Below, Jennifer E; Williams, Amy L; Burtt, Noel P; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Huerta-Chagoya, Alicia; Gonzalez-Villalpando, Clicerio; Orozco, Lorena; Haiman, Christopher A; Tsai, Michael Y; Johnson, W Craig; Yao, Jie; Rasmussen-Torvik, Laura; Pankow, James; Snively, Beverly; Jackson, Rebecca D; Liu, Simin; Nadler, Jerry L; Kandeel, Fouad; Chen, Yii-Der I; Bowden, Donald W; Rich, Stephen S; Raffel, Leslie J; Rotter, Jerome I; Watanabe, Richard M; Wagenknecht, Lynne E

2015-05-01

Insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, insulin clearance, and glucose effectiveness exhibit strong genetic components, although few studies have examined their genetic architecture or influence on type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. We hypothesized that loci affecting variation in these quantitative traits influence T2D. We completed a multicohort genome-wide association study to search for loci influencing T2D-related quantitative traits in 4,176 Mexican Americans. Quantitative traits were measured by the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (four cohorts) or euglycemic clamp (three cohorts), and random-effects models were used to test the association between loci and quantitative traits, adjusting for age, sex, and admixture proportions (Discovery). Analysis revealed a significant (P < 5.00 × 10(-8)) association at 11q14.3 (MTNR1B) with acute insulin response. Loci with P < 0.0001 among the quantitative traits were examined for translation to T2D risk in 6,463 T2D case and 9,232 control subjects of Mexican ancestry (Translation). Nonparametric meta-analysis of the Discovery and Translation cohorts identified significant associations at 6p24 (SLC35B3/TFAP2A) with glucose effectiveness/T2D, 11p15 (KCNQ1) with disposition index/T2D, and 6p22 (CDKAL1) and 11q14 (MTNR1B) with acute insulin response/T2D. These results suggest that T2D and insulin secretion and sensitivity have both shared and distinct genetic factors, potentially delineating genomic components of these quantitative traits that drive the risk for T2D. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Low-dose CT for quantitative analysis in acute respiratory distress syndrome

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction The clinical use of serial quantitative computed tomography (CT) to characterize lung disease and guide the optimization of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is limited by the risk of cumulative radiation exposure and by the difficulties and risks related to transferring patients to the CT room. We evaluated the effects of tube current-time product (mAs) variations on quantitative results in healthy lungs and in experimental ARDS in order to support the use of low-dose CT for quantitative analysis. Methods In 14 sheep chest CT was performed at baseline and after the induction of ARDS via intravenous oleic acid injection. For each CT session, two consecutive scans were obtained applying two different mAs: 60 mAs was paired with 140, 15 or 7.5 mAs. All other CT parameters were kept unaltered (tube voltage 120 kVp, collimation 32 × 0.5 mm, pitch 0.85, matrix 512 × 512, pixel size 0.625 × 0.625 mm). Quantitative results obtained at different mAs were compared via Bland-Altman analysis. Results Good agreement was observed between 60 mAs and 140 mAs and between 60 mAs and 15 mAs (all biases less than 1%). A further reduction of mAs to 7.5 mAs caused an increase in the bias of poorly aerated and nonaerated tissue (-2.9% and 2.4%, respectively) and determined a significant widening of the limits of agreement for the same compartments (-10.5% to 4.8% for poorly aerated tissue and -5.9% to 10.8% for nonaerated tissue). Estimated mean effective dose at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 17.8, 7.4, 2.0 and 0.9 mSv, respectively. Image noise of scans performed at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 10, 16, 38 and 74 Hounsfield units, respectively. Conclusions A reduction of effective dose up to 70% has been achieved with minimal effects on lung quantitative results. Low-dose computed tomography provides accurate quantitative results and could be used to characterize lung compartment distribution and possibly monitor time-course of ARDS with a lower risk of exposure to ionizing radiation. A further radiation dose reduction is associated with lower accuracy in quantitative results. PMID:24004842

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

The Association Between Law Enforcement Encounters and Syringe Sharing Among IDUs on Skid Row: A Mixed Methods Analysis

PubMed Central

Simon-Freeman, Rebecca; Bluthenthal, Ricky N.

2013-01-01

The legal environment is one factor that influences injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV and other bloodborne pathogens such as hepatitis C virus (HCV). We examined the association between law enforcement encounters (i.e., arrests and citations) and receptive syringe sharing among IDUs in the context of an intensified policing effort. We conducted a mixed methods analysis of 30 qualitative and 187 quantitative interviews with IDUs accessing services at a Los Angeles, CA syringe exchange program from 2008 to 2009. Qualitative findings illustrate concerns related to visibility, drug withdrawal, and previous history of arrest/incarceration. In quantitative analysis, the number of citations received, current homelessness, and perceiving that being arrested would be a “big problem” were independently associated with recent syringe sharing. Findings illustrate some of the unintended public health consequences associated with intensified street-level policing, including risk for HIV and HCV transmission. PMID:23620243

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative biomechanical analysis of wrist motion in bone-trimming jobs in the meat packing industry.

PubMed

Marklin, R W; Monroe, J F

1998-02-01

This study was motivated by the serious impact that cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremities have on the meat packing industry. To date, no quantitative data have been gathered on the kinematics of hand and wrist motion required in bone-trimming jobs in the red-meat packing industry and how these motions are related to the risk of CTDs. The wrist motion of bone-trimming workers from a medium-sized plant was measured, and the kinematic data were compared to manufacturing industry's preliminary wrist motion benchmarks from industrial workers who performed hand-intensive, repetitive work in jobs that were of low and high risk of hand/wrist CTDs. Results of this comparison show that numerous wrist motion variables in both the left and right hands of bone-trimming workers are in the high-risk category. This quantitative analysis provides biomechanical support for the high incidence of CTDs in the meat packing industry. The research reported in this paper established a preliminary database of wrist and hand kinematics required in bone-trimming jobs in the red-meat packing industry. This kinematic database could augment the industry's efforts to reduce the severity and cost of CTDs. Ergonomics practitioners in the industry could use the kinematic methods employed in this research to assess the CTD risk of jobs that require repetitious, hand-intensive work.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in Canadian broiler chicken breast from retail to consumption.

PubMed

Smadi, Hanan; Sargeant, Jan M

2013-02-01

The current quantitative risk assessment model followed the framework proposed by the Codex Alimentarius to provide an estimate of the risk of human salmonellosis due to consumption of chicken breasts which were bought from Canadian retail stores and prepared in Canadian domestic kitchens. The model simulated the level of Salmonella contamination on chicken breasts throughout the retail-to-table pathway. The model used Canadian input parameter values, where available, to represent risk of salmonellosis. From retail until consumption, changes in the concentration of Salmonella on each chicken breast were modeled using equations for growth and inactivation. The model predicted an average of 318 cases of salmonellosis per 100,000 consumers per year. Potential reasons for this overestimation were discussed. A sensitivity analysis showed that concentration of Salmonella on chicken breasts at retail and food hygienic practices in private kitchens such as cross-contamination due to not washing cutting boards (or utensils) and hands after handling raw meat along with inadequate cooking contributed most significantly to the risk of human salmonellosis. The outcome from this model emphasizes that responsibility for protection from Salmonella hazard on chicken breasts is a shared responsibility. Data needed for a comprehensive Canadian Salmonella risk assessment were identified for future research. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

What patient characteristics guide nurses' clinical judgement on pressure ulcer risk? A mixed methods study.

PubMed

Balzer, K; Kremer, L; Junghans, A; Halfens, R J G; Dassen, T; Kottner, J

2014-05-01

Nurses' clinical judgement plays a vital role in pressure ulcer risk assessment, but evidence is lacking which patient characteristics are important for nurses' perception of patients' risk exposure. To explore which patient characteristics nurses employ when assessing pressure ulcer risk without use of a risk assessment scale. Mixed methods design triangulating observational data from the control group of a quasi-experimental trial and data from semi-structured interviews with nurses. Two traumatological wards at a university hospital. Quantitative data: A consecutive sample of 106 patients matching the eligibility criteria (age ≥ 18 years, no pressure ulcers category ≥ 2 at admission and ≥ 5 days expected length of stay). Qualitative data: A purposive sample of 16 nurses. Quantitative data: Predictor variables for pressure ulcer risk were measured by study assistants at the bedside each second day. Concurrently, nurses documented their clinical judgement on patients' pressure ulcer risk by means of a 4-step global judgement scale. Bivariate correlations between predictor variables and nurses' risk estimates were established. Qualitative data: In interviews, nurses were asked to assess fictitious patients' pressure ulcer risk and to justify their risk estimates. Patient characteristics perceived as relevant for nurses' judements were thematically clustered. Triangulation: Firstly, predictors of nurses' risk estimates identified in bivariate analysis were cross-mapped with interview findings. Secondly, three models to predict nurses' risk estimates underwent multiple linear regression analysis. Nurses consider multiple patient characteristics for pressure ulcer risk assessment, but regard some conditions more important than others. Triangulation showed that these are measures reflecting patients' exposure to pressure or overall care dependency. Qualitative data furthermore indicate that nurses are likely to trade off risk-enhancing conditions against conditions perceived to be protective. Here, patients' mental capabilities like willingness to engage in one owns care seem to be particularly important. Due to missing information on these variables in the quantitative data, they could not be incorporated into triangulation. Nurses' clinical judgement draws on well-known aetiological factors, and tends to expand conditions covered by risk assessment scales. Patients' care dependency and self-care abilities seem to be core concepts for nurses' risk assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Quantitative Analysis of the Cervical Texture by Ultrasound and Correlation with Gestational Age.

PubMed

Baños, Núria; Perez-Moreno, Alvaro; Migliorelli, Federico; Triginer, Laura; Cobo, Teresa; Bonet-Carne, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard; Palacio, Montse

2017-01-01

Quantitative texture analysis has been proposed to extract robust features from the ultrasound image to detect subtle changes in the textures of the images. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of quantitative cervical texture analysis to assess cervical tissue changes throughout pregnancy. This was a cross-sectional study including singleton pregnancies between 20.0 and 41.6 weeks of gestation from women who delivered at term. Cervical length was measured, and a selected region of interest in the cervix was delineated. A model to predict gestational age based on features extracted from cervical images was developed following three steps: data splitting, feature transformation, and regression model computation. Seven hundred images, 30 per gestational week, were included for analysis. There was a strong correlation between the gestational age at which the images were obtained and the estimated gestational age by quantitative analysis of the cervical texture (R = 0.88). This study provides evidence that quantitative analysis of cervical texture can extract features from cervical ultrasound images which correlate with gestational age. Further research is needed to evaluate its applicability as a biomarker of the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, as well as its role in cervical assessment in other clinical situations in which cervical evaluation might be relevant. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

PubMed

Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

2014-01-01

The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

PubMed Central

Woolhouse, Mark

2011-01-01

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

Methods of quantitative risk assessment: The case of the propellant supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, H. A.; Bienz, A.

1984-08-01

As a consequence of the disastrous accident in Lapua (Finland) in 1976, where an explosion in a cartridge loading facility killed 40 and injured more than 70 persons, efforts were undertaken to examine and improve the safety of such installations. An ammunition factory in Switzerland considered the replacement of the manual supply of propellant hoppers by a new pneumatic supply system. This would reduce the maximum quantity of propellant in the hoppers to a level, where an accidental ignition would no longer lead to a detonation, and this would drastically limit the effects on persons. A quantitative risk assessment of the present and the planned supply system demonstrated that, in this particular case, the pneumatic supply system would not reduce the risk enough to justify the related costs. In addition, it could be shown that the safety of the existing system can be improved more effectively by other safety measures at considerably lower costs. Based on this practical example, the advantages of a strictly quantitative risk assessment for the safety planning in explosives factories are demonstrated. The methodological background of a risk assessment and the steps involved in the analysis are summarized. In addition, problems of quantification are discussed.

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

EPA Science Inventory

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

Agro-ecoregionalization of Iowa using multivariate geographical clustering

Treesearch

Carol L. Williams; William W. Hargrove; Matt Leibman; David E. James

2008-01-01

Agro-ecoregionalization is categorization of landscapes for use in crop suitability analysis, strategic agroeconomic development, risk analysis, and other purposes. Past agro-ecoregionalizations have been subjective, expert opinion driven, crop specific, and unsuitable for statistical extrapolation. Use of quantitative analytical methods provides an opportunity for...

Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Mabikwa, Onkabetse V; Greenwood, Darren C; Baxter, Paul D; Fleming, Sarah J

2017-03-14

One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology. The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described. Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards. Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger recommendations on reporting quantitative risk factors in epidemiology.

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

Prognostic Value of Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Sammut, Eva C; Villa, Adriana D M; Di Giovine, Gabriella; Dancy, Luke; Bosio, Filippo; Gibbs, Thomas; Jeyabraba, Swarna; Schwenke, Susanne; Williams, Steven E; Marber, Michael; Alfakih, Khaled; Ismail, Tevfik F; Razavi, Reza; Chiribiri, Amedeo

2018-05-01

This study sought to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of visual and quantitative perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) ischemic burden in an unselected group of patients and to assess the validity of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds extrapolated from nuclear studies. There are limited data on the prognostic value of assessing myocardial ischemic burden by CMR, and there are none using quantitative perfusion analysis. Patients with suspected coronary artery disease referred for adenosine-stress perfusion CMR were included (n = 395; 70% male; age 58 ± 13 years). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, aborted sudden death, and revascularization after 90 days. Perfusion scans were assessed visually and with quantitative analysis. Cross-validated Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement were used to assess the incremental prognostic value of visual or quantitative perfusion analysis over a baseline clinical model, initially as continuous covariates, then using accepted thresholds of ≥2 segments or ≥10% myocardium. After a median 460 days (interquartile range: 190 to 869 days) follow-up, 52 patients reached the primary endpoint. At 2 years, the addition of ischemic burden was found to increase prognostic value over a baseline model of age, sex, and late gadolinium enhancement (baseline model area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75; visual AUC: 0.84; quantitative AUC: 0.85). Dichotomized quantitative ischemic burden performed better than visual assessment (net reclassification improvement 0.043 vs. 0.003 against baseline model). This study was the first to address the prognostic benefit of quantitative analysis of perfusion CMR and to support the use of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds by perfusion CMR for prognostic evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Quantitative analysis provided incremental prognostic value to visual assessment and established risk factors, potentially representing an important step forward in the translation of quantitative CMR perfusion analysis to the clinical setting. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of quantitative risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griesmeyer, J. M.; Okrent, D.

Some of the major considerations for effective management of risk are discussed, with particular emphasis on risks due to nuclear power plant operations. Although there are impacts associated with the rest of the fuel cycle, they are not addressed here. Several previously published proposals for quantitative risk criteria are reviewed. They range from a simple acceptance criterion on individual risk of death to a quantitative risk management framework. The final section discussed some of the problems in the establishment of a framework for the quantitative management of risk.

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-13

...] Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review AGENCY: Food and Drug... availability of a draft report entitled ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs... ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review.'' A literature...

Viewpoint on ISA TR84.0.02--simplified methods and fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Summers, A E

2000-01-01

ANSI/ISA-S84.01-1996 and IEC 61508 require the establishment of a safety integrity level for any safety instrumented system or safety related system used to mitigate risk. Each stage of design, operation, maintenance, and testing is judged against this safety integrity level. Quantitative techniques can be used to verify whether the safety integrity level is met. ISA-dTR84.0.02 is a technical report under development by ISA, which discusses how to apply quantitative analysis techniques to safety instrumented systems. This paper discusses two of those techniques: (1) Simplified equations and (2) Fault tree analysis.

Managing Technical and Cost Uncertainties During Product Development in a Simulation-Based Design Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karandikar, Harsh M.

1997-01-01

An approach for objective and quantitative technical and cost risk analysis during product development, which is applicable from the earliest stages, is discussed. The approach is supported by a software tool called the Analytical System for Uncertainty and Risk Estimation (ASURE). Details of ASURE, the underlying concepts and its application history, are provided.

School Mental Health Early Interventions and Academic Outcomes for At-Risk High School Students: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iachini, Aidyn L.; Brown, Elizabeth Levine; Ball, Annahita; Gibson, Jennifer E.; Lize, Steven E.

2015-01-01

The current educational policy context in the United States necessitates that school-based programs prioritize students' academic outcomes. This review examined the quantitative research on school mental health (SMH) early interventions and academic outcomes for at-risk high school students. Seven articles met the inclusion criteria for this…

Review and comparison between the Wells-Riley and dose-response approaches to risk assessment of infectious respiratory diseases.

PubMed

Sze To, G N; Chao, C Y H

2010-02-01

Infection risk assessment is very useful in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and in predicting the risk of these diseases to the public. Quantitative infection risk assessment can provide quantitative analysis of disease transmission and the effectiveness of infection control measures. The Wells-Riley model has been extensively used for quantitative infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases in indoor premises. Some newer studies have also proposed the use of dose-response models for such purpose. This study reviews and compares these two approaches to infection risk assessment of respiratory infectious diseases. The Wells-Riley model allows quick assessment and does not require interspecies extrapolation of infectivity. Dose-response models can consider other disease transmission routes in addition to airborne route and can calculate the infectious source strength of an outbreak in terms of the quantity of the pathogen rather than a hypothetical unit. Spatial distribution of airborne pathogens is one of the most important factors in infection risk assessment of respiratory disease. Respiratory deposition of aerosol induces heterogeneous infectivity of intake pathogens and randomness on the intake dose, which are not being well accounted for in current risk models. Some suggestions for further development of the risk assessment models are proposed. This review article summarizes the strengths and limitations of the Wells-Riley and the dose-response models for risk assessment of respiratory diseases. Even with many efforts by various investigators to develop and modify the risk assessment models, some limitations still persist. This review serves as a reference for further development of infection risk assessment models of respiratory diseases. The Wells-Riley model and dose-response model offer specific advantages. Risk assessors can select the approach that is suitable to their particular conditions to perform risk assessment.

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

The impact of dual bronchodilation on cardiovascular serious adverse events and mortality in COPD: a quantitative synthesis

PubMed Central

Rogliani, Paola; Matera, Maria Gabriella; Ora, Josuel; Cazzola, Mario; Calzetta, Luigino

2017-01-01

Objective Long-acting β2-agonists (LABAs) and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) are burdened by the potential risk of inducing cardiovascular serious adverse events (SAEs) in COPD patients. Since the risk of combining a LABA with a LAMA could be greater, we have carried out a quantitative synthesis to investigate the cardiovascular safety profile of LABA/LAMA fixed-dose combinations (FDCs). Methods A pair-wise and network meta-analysis was performed by using the data of the repository database ClinicalTrials.gov concerning the impact of approved LABA/LAMA FDCs versus monocomponents and/or placebo on cardiovascular SAEs in COPD. Results Overall, LABA/LAMA FDCs did not significantly (P>0.05) modulate the risk of cardiovascular SAEs versus monocomponents. However, the network meta-analysis indicated that aclidinium/formoterol 400/12 µg and tiotropium/olodaterol 5/5 µg were the safest FDCs, followed by umeclidinium/vilanterol 62.5/25 µg which was as safe as placebo, whereas glycopyrronium/formoterol 14.9/9.6, glycopyrronium/indacaterol 15.6/27.5 µg, and glycopyrronium/indacaterol 50/110 µg were the least safe FDCs. No impact on mortality was detected for each specific FDC. Conclusion This meta-analysis indicates that LABA/LAMA FDC therapy is characterized by an excellent cardiovascular safety profile in COPD patients. However, the findings of this quantitative synthesis have been obtained from populations that participated in randomized clinical trials, and were devoid of major cardiovascular diseases. Thus, post-marketing surveillance and observational studies may help to better define the real impact of specific FDCs with regard to the cardiovascular risk. PMID:29255354

The Uses of Text Messaging in Sexual Relationships Scale: Associations with risky sexual behavior among at-risk African American emerging adults

PubMed Central

Broaddus, Michelle; Dickson-Gomez, Julia

2017-01-01

Qualitative and quantitative research was used to create the Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships scale. At-risk, predominantly African American emerging adults participated in qualitative interviews (N = 20) and quantitative surveys (N = 110) about their uses of text messaging within romantic and sexual relationships. Exploratory factor analysis of items generated from interviews resulted in four subscales: Sexting, Relationship Maintenance, Relationship Development, and Texting for Sexual Safety. Exploratory analyses indicated associations of Sexting with more instances of condomless sex, and Texting for Sexual Safety with fewer instances of condomless sex, which was moderated by relationship power. Further research on the connections between text messaging in relationships and sexual behavior among high-risk and minority young adults is warranted, and intervention efforts to decrease sexual risks need to incorporate these avenues of sexual communication. PMID:27710089

The Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships Scale: Associations With Risky Sexual Behavior Among At-Risk African American Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Broaddus, Michelle; Dickson-Gomez, Julia

2016-10-01

Qualitative and quantitative research was used to create the Uses of Texting in Sexual Relationships scale. At-risk, predominantly African American emerging adults participated in qualitative interviews (N = 20) and quantitative surveys (N = 110) about their uses of text messaging within romantic and sexual relationships. Exploratory factor analysis of items generated from interviews resulted in four subscales: Sexting, Relationship Maintenance, Relationship Development, and Texting for Sexual Safety. Exploratory analyses indicated associations of Sexting with more instances of condomless sex, and Texting for Sexual Safety with fewer instances of condomless sex, which was moderated by relationship power. Further research on the connections between text messaging in relationships and sexual behavior among high-risk and minority young adults is warranted, and intervention efforts to decrease sexual risks need to incorporate these avenues of sexual communication.

Glycolytic activity in breast cancer using 18F-FDG PET/CT as prognostic predictor: A molecular phenotype approach.

PubMed

Garcia Vicente, A M; Soriano Castrejón, A; Amo-Salas, M; Lopez Fidalgo, J F; Muñoz Sanchez, M M; Alvarez Cabellos, R; Espinosa Aunion, R; Muñoz Madero, V

2016-01-01

To explore the relationship between basal (18)F-FDG uptake in breast tumors and survival in patients with breast cancer (BC) using a molecular phenotype approach. This prospective and multicentre study included 193 women diagnosed with BC. All patients underwent an (18)F-FDG PET/CT prior to treatment. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) in tumor (T), lymph nodes (N), and the N/T index was obtained in all the cases. Metabolic stage was established. As regards biological prognostic parameters, tumors were classified into molecular sub-types and risk categories. Overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were obtained. An analysis was performed on the relationship between semi-quantitative metabolic parameters with molecular phenotypes and risk categories. The effect of molecular sub-type and risk categories in prognosis was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and univariate and multivariate tests. Statistical differences were found in both SUVT and SUVN, according to the molecular sub-types and risk classifications, with higher semi-quantitative values in more biologically aggressive tumors. No statistical differences were observed with respect to the N/T index. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that risk categories were significantly related to DFS and OS. In the multivariate analysis, metabolic stage and risk phenotype showed a significant association with DFS. High-risk phenotype category showed a worst prognosis with respect to the other categories with higher SUVmax in primary tumor and lymph nodes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be used as "imaging biomarkers" to predict risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer.

A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

PubMed

Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

2013-01-01

The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) Analysis

MedlinePlus

... Internet]. Allina Health; c2017. Cerebrospinal fluid IgG measurement, quantitative [updated 2016 Mar 29; cited 2017 Oct 22]; [ ... Clinic [Internet]. Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research; c1998–2017. Lumbar puncture (spinal tap): Risks; 2014 ...

Quantitative analysis of visible surface defect risk in tablets during film coating using terahertz pulsed imaging.

PubMed

Niwa, Masahiro; Hiraishi, Yasuhiro

2014-01-30

Tablets are the most common form of solid oral dosage produced by pharmaceutical industries. There are several challenges to successful and consistent tablet manufacturing. One well-known quality issue is visible surface defects, which generally occur due to insufficient physical strength, causing breakage or abrasion during processing, packaging, or shipping. Techniques that allow quantitative evaluation of surface strength and the risk of surface defect would greatly aid in quality control. Here terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI) was employed to evaluate the surface properties of core tablets with visible surface defects of varying severity after film coating. Other analytical methods, such as tensile strength measurements, friability testing, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), were used to validate TPI results. Tensile strength and friability provided no information on visible surface defect risk, whereas the TPI-derived unique parameter terahertz electric field peak strength (TEFPS) provided spatial distribution of surface density/roughness information on core tablets, which helped in estimating tablet abrasion risk prior to film coating and predicting the location of the defects. TPI also revealed the relationship between surface strength and blending condition and is a nondestructive, quantitative approach to aid formulation development and quality control that can reduce visible surface defect risk in tablets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Esophagus cancer and occupational exposure to asbestos: results from a meta-analysis of epidemiology studies.

PubMed

Li, B; Tang, S P; Wang, K Z

2016-07-01

The relationship between occupational asbestos exposure and esophagus cancer (EC) is not fully understood. We performed a meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the association. We systematically searched databases of PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science for studies with quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure and EC mortality. Pooled standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Twenty cohort studies on EC and asbestos exposure were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, occupational exposure to asbestos was associated with an excess risk of EC (SMR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.13-1.38, P < 0.001), with little evidence of heterogeneity among studies (I(2) = 0.0%, P = 0.682). Being male, exposure to chrysotile or mixed asbestos, working at textile industry, long study follow-up (≥20 years), Asia, Europe and America cohorts with larger cohort size (>500), and high-exposure group all contribute to significantly higher SMR. Publication bias was not detected (Egger's test P-value = 0.374). This meta-analysis suggested that occupational asbestos exposure might be associated with an increased risk of EC in male. High-exposure level of asbestos could contribute to significantly higher risk of EC mortality. © 2015 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Risk assessment of airborne pesticides in a Mediterranean region of Spain.

PubMed

López, Antonio; Yusà, Vicent; Muñoz, Amalia; Vera, Teresa; Borràs, Esther; Ródenas, Milagros; Coscollà, Clara

2017-01-01

A risk assessment strategy based on the quantitative target analysis and semi-quantitative retrospective screening determination of pesticides in PM10 has been developed. The proposed methodology was applied to 345 real samples from nine stations of a Mediterranean area in Spain, and the risk was assessed for adult, children and infants. Forty pesticides were detected with average concentrations ranging from 8 to 30,000pgm -3 . Each station showed its specific pesticide profile, which is linked to the different types of crops around each station. For adults, children and infants the estimated chronic inhalation risk, expressed as Hazard Quotient (HQ), was <1 for all pesticides. The cumulative exposure for organophosphates, neonicotinoids, benzimidazoles, carbamates, micro-organism and triazoles pesticides (HI, Hazard Index) were <1 for the three groups of populations assessed. For infants, the cancer risk estimated for the detected pesticides classified as possible and potential carcinogens were lower than 1.0 E-06, except for carbendazim and hexythiazox. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Criteria to Screen for Cannabis Use Disorder.

PubMed

Casajuana, Cristina; López-Pelayo, Hugo; Miquel, Laia; Balcells-Oliveró, María Mercedes; Colom, Joan; Gual, Antoni

2018-06-27

The Standard Joint Unit (1 SJU = 7 mg of 9-Tetrahydrocannabinol) simplifies the exploration of risky patterns of cannabis use. This study proposes a preliminary quantitative cutoff criterion to screen for cannabis use disorder (CUD). Socio-demographical data and information on cannabis quantities, frequency of use, and risk for CUD (measured with the Cannabis Abuse Screening Test (CAST) of cannabis users recruited in Barcelona (from February 2015 to June 2016) were collected. CAST scores were categorized into low, moderate, and high risk for CUD, based on the SJU consumed and frequency. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis related daily SJU with CUD. Participants (n = 473) were on average 29 years old (SD = 10), men (77.1%), and single (74.6%). With an average of 4 joints per smoking day, 82.5% consumed cannabis almost every day. Risk for CUD (9.40% low, 23.72% moderate, 66.88% high) increased significantly with more frequency and quantities consumed. The ROC analyses suggest 1.2 SJU per day as a cutoff criterion to screen for at least moderate risk for CUD (sensitivity 69.4%, specificity 63.6%). Frequency and quantity should be considered when exploring cannabis risks. A 1 SJU per day is proposed as a preliminary quantitative-based criterion to screen users with at least a moderate risk for CUD. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

Patient-specific assessment of left ventricular thrombogenesis risk after acute myocardial infarction: a pilot clinical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossini, L.; Khan, A.; Del Alamo, J. C.; Martinez-Legazpi, P.; Pérez Del Villar, C.; Benito, Y.; Yotti, R.; Barrio, A.; Delgado-Montero, A.; Gonzalez-Mansilla, A.; Fernandez-Avilés, F.; Bermejo, J.

2016-11-01

Left ventricular thrombosis (LVT) is a major complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In these patients, the benefits of chronic anticoagulation therapy need to be balanced with its pro-hemorrhagic effects. Blood stasis in the cardiac chambers, a risk factor for LVT, is not addressed in current clinical practice. We recently developed a method to quantitatively assess the blood residence time (RT) inside the left ventricle (LV) based on 2D color-Doppler velocimetry (echo-CDV). Using time-resolved blood velocity fields acquired non-invasively, we integrate a modified advection equation to map intraventricular stasis regions. Here, we present how this tool can be used to estimate the risk of LVT in patients with AMI. 73 patients with a first anterior-AMI were studied by echo-CDV and RT analysis within 72h from admission and at a 5-month follow-up. Patients who eventually develop LVT showed early abnormalities of intraventricular RT: the apical region with RT>2s was significantly larger, had a higher RT and a longer wall contact length. Thus, quantitative analysis of intraventricular flow based on echocardiography may provide subclinical markers of LV thrombosis risk to guide clinical decision making.

Quantitative risk-benefit analysis of fish consumption for women of child-bearing age in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chen, M Y Y; Wong, W W K; Chung, S W C; Tran, C H; Chan, B T P; Ho, Y Y; Xiao, Y

2014-01-01

Maternal fish consumption is associated with both risks from methylmercury (MeHg) and beneficial effects from omega-3 fatty acids to the developing foetal brain. This paper assessed the dietary exposure to MeHg of women of child-bearing age (20-49 years) in Hong Kong, and conducted risk-benefit analysis in terms of the effects in children's intelligent quotient (IQ) based on local data and the quantitative method derived by the expert consultation of FAO/WHO. Results showed that average and high consumers consume 450 and 1500 g of fish (including seafood) per week, respectively. About 11% of women of child-bearing age had a dietary exposure to MeHg exceeding the PTWI of 1.6 µg kg(-1) bw. In pregnant women MeHg intake may pose health risks to the developing foetuses. For average consumers, eating any of the 19 types of the most commonly consumed fish and seafood during pregnancy would result in 0.79-5.7 IQ points gain by their children. For high consumers, if they only ate tuna during pregnancy, it would cause 2.3 IQ points reduction in their children. The results indicated that for pregnant women the benefit outweighed the risk associated with eating fish if they consume different varieties of fish in moderation.

Risk-Based Approach for Microbiological Food Safety Management in the Dairy Industry: The Case of Listeria monocytogenes in Soft Cheese Made from Pasteurized Milk.

PubMed

Tenenhaus-Aziza, Fanny; Daudin, Jean-Jacques; Maffre, Alexandre; Sanaa, Moez

2014-01-01

According to Codex Alimentarius Commission recommendations, management options applied at the process production level should be based on good hygiene practices, HACCP system, and new risk management metrics such as the food safety objective. To follow this last recommendation, the use of quantitative microbiological risk assessment is an appealing approach to link new risk-based metrics to management options that may be applied by food operators. Through a specific case study, Listeria monocytogenes in soft cheese made from pasteurized milk, the objective of the present article is to practically show how quantitative risk assessment could be used to direct potential intervention strategies at different food processing steps. Based on many assumptions, the model developed estimates the risk of listeriosis at the moment of consumption taking into account the entire manufacturing process and potential sources of contamination. From pasteurization to consumption, the amplification of a primo-contamination event of the milk, the fresh cheese or the process environment is simulated, over time, space, and between products, accounting for the impact of management options, such as hygienic operations and sampling plans. A sensitivity analysis of the model will help orientating data to be collected prioritarily for the improvement and the validation of the model. What-if scenarios were simulated and allowed for the identification of major parameters contributing to the risk of listeriosis and the optimization of preventive and corrective measures. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Meta-Analysis of Predictors of Offender Treatment Attrition and Its Relationship to Recidivism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olver, Mark E.; Stockdale, Keira C.; Wormith, J. Stephen

2011-01-01

Objective: The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. Method: A meta-analysis of the offender…

Computer-based video analysis identifies infants with absence of fidgety movements.

PubMed

Støen, Ragnhild; Songstad, Nils Thomas; Silberg, Inger Elisabeth; Fjørtoft, Toril; Jensenius, Alexander Refsum; Adde, Lars

2017-10-01

BackgroundAbsence of fidgety movements (FMs) at 3 months' corrected age is a strong predictor of cerebral palsy (CP) in high-risk infants. This study evaluates the association between computer-based video analysis and the temporal organization of FMs assessed with the General Movement Assessment (GMA).MethodsInfants were eligible for this prospective cohort study if referred to a high-risk follow-up program in a participating hospital. Video recordings taken at 10-15 weeks post term age were used for GMA and computer-based analysis. The variation of the spatial center of motion, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, was used for quantitative analysis.ResultsOf 241 recordings from 150 infants, 48 (24.1%) were classified with absence of FMs or sporadic FMs using the GMA. The variation of the spatial center of motion (C SD ) during a recording was significantly lower in infants with normal (0.320; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.309, 0.330) vs. absence of or sporadic (0.380; 95% CI 0.361, 0.398) FMs (P<0.001). A triage model with C SD thresholds chosen for sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80% gave a 40% referral rate for GMA.ConclusionQuantitative video analysis during the FMs' period can be used to triage infants at high risk of CP to early intervention or observational GMA.

Revised Risk Priority Number in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Model from the Perspective of Healthcare System

PubMed Central

Rezaei, Fatemeh; Yarmohammadian, Mohmmad H.; Haghshenas, Abbas; Fallah, Ali; Ferdosi, Masoud

2018-01-01

Background: Methodology of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is known as an important risk assessment tool and accreditation requirement by many organizations. For prioritizing failures, the index of “risk priority number (RPN)” is used, especially for its ease and subjective evaluations of occurrence, the severity and the detectability of each failure. In this study, we have tried to apply FMEA model more compatible with health-care systems by redefining RPN index to be closer to reality. Methods: We used a quantitative and qualitative approach in this research. In the qualitative domain, focused groups discussion was used to collect data. A quantitative approach was used to calculate RPN score. Results: We have studied patient's journey in surgery ward from holding area to the operating room. The highest priority failures determined based on (1) defining inclusion criteria as severity of incident (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence of incident (time - unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) then, (2) risks priority criteria quantified by using RPN index (361 for the highest rate failure). The ability of improved RPN scores reassessed by root cause analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: We concluded that standard criteria should be developed inconsistent with clinical linguistic and special scientific fields. Therefore, cooperation and partnership of technical and clinical groups are necessary to modify these models. PMID:29441184

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-07

... the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From Foodborne... quantitative targets established in ``Healthy People 2010.'' In 2005, FoodNet data showed 0.30 L. monocytogenes... 4). In 2003, FDA and FSIS published a quantitative assessment of the relative risk to public health...

Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Versus Visual Analysis in Diagnosing Myocardial Ischemia: A CE-MARC Substudy.

PubMed

Biglands, John D; Ibraheem, Montasir; Magee, Derek R; Radjenovic, Aleksandra; Plein, Sven; Greenwood, John P

2018-05-01

This study sought to compare the diagnostic accuracy of visual and quantitative analyses of myocardial perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance against a reference standard of quantitative coronary angiography. Visual analysis of perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance studies for assessing myocardial perfusion has been shown to have high diagnostic accuracy for coronary artery disease. However, only a few small studies have assessed the diagnostic accuracy of quantitative myocardial perfusion. This retrospective study included 128 patients randomly selected from the CE-MARC (Clinical Evaluation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Coronary Heart Disease) study population such that the distribution of risk factors and disease status was proportionate to the full population. Visual analysis results of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion images, by consensus of 2 expert readers, were taken from the original study reports. Quantitative myocardial blood flow estimates were obtained using Fermi-constrained deconvolution. The reference standard for myocardial ischemia was a quantitative coronary x-ray angiogram stenosis severity of ≥70% diameter in any coronary artery of >2 mm diameter, or ≥50% in the left main stem. Diagnostic performance was calculated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The area under the curve for visual analysis was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 0.95) with a sensitivity of 81.0% (95% confidence interval: 69.1% to 92.8%) and specificity of 86.0% (95% confidence interval: 78.7% to 93.4%). For quantitative stress myocardial blood flow the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.96) with a sensitivity of 87.5% (95% confidence interval: 77.3% to 97.7%) and specificity of 84.5% (95% confidence interval: 76.8% to 92.3%). There was no statistically significant difference between the diagnostic performance of quantitative and visual analyses (p = 0.72). Incorporating rest myocardial blood flow values to generate a myocardial perfusion reserve did not significantly increase the quantitative analysis area under the curve (p = 0.79). Quantitative perfusion has a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease but is not superior to visual analysis. The incorporation of rest perfusion imaging does not improve diagnostic accuracy in quantitative perfusion analysis. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the Risks and Benefits of New Chemical Entities Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Subsequently Withdrawn From the US Market.

PubMed

Patriarca, Peter A; Van Auken, R Michael; Kebschull, Scott A

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk evaluations of drugs have been conducted since the introduction of modern regulatory systems more than 50 years ago. Such judgments are typically made on the basis of qualitative or semiquantitative approaches, often without the aid of quantitative assessment methods, the latter having often been applied asymmetrically to place emphasis on benefit more so than harm. In an effort to preliminarily evaluate the utility of lives lost or saved, or quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost and gained as a means of quantitatively assessing the potential benefits and risks of a new chemical entity, we focused our attention on the unique scenario in which a drug was initially approved based on one set of data, but later withdrawn from the market based on a second set of data. In this analysis, a dimensionless risk to benefit ratio was calculated in each instance, based on the risk and benefit quantified in similar units. The results indicated that FDA decisions to approve the drug corresponded to risk to benefit ratios less than or equal to 0.136, and that decisions to withdraw the drug from the US market corresponded to risk to benefit ratios greater than or equal to 0.092. The probability of FDA approval was then estimated using logistic regression analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that there was a 50% probability of FDA approval if the risk to benefit ratio was 0.121, and that the probability approaches 100% for values much less than 0.121, and the probability approaches 0% for values much greater than 0.121. The large uncertainty in these estimates due to the small sample size and overlapping data may be addressed in the future by applying the methodology to other drugs.

The role of quantitative safety evaluation in regulatory decision making of drugs.

PubMed

Chakravarty, Aloka G; Izem, Rima; Keeton, Stephine; Kim, Clara Y; Levenson, Mark S; Soukup, Mat

2016-01-01

Evaluation of safety is a critical component of drug review at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Statisticians are playing an increasingly visible role in quantitative safety evaluation and regulatory decision-making. This article reviews the history and the recent events relating to quantitative drug safety evaluation at the FDA. The article then focuses on five active areas of quantitative drug safety evaluation and the role Division of Biometrics VII (DBVII) plays in these areas, namely meta-analysis for safety evaluation, large safety outcome trials, post-marketing requirements (PMRs), the Sentinel Initiative, and the evaluation of risk from extended/long-acting opioids. This article will focus chiefly on developments related to quantitative drug safety evaluation and not on the many additional developments in drug safety in general.

Size-adjusted Quantitative Gleason Score as a Predictor of Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Deng, Fang-Ming; Donin, Nicholas M; Pe Benito, Ruth; Melamed, Jonathan; Le Nobin, Julien; Zhou, Ming; Ma, Sisi; Wang, Jinhua; Lepor, Herbert

2016-08-01

The risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy for pathologic Gleason 7 prostate cancer varies according to the proportion of Gleason 4 component. We sought to explore the value of several novel quantitative metrics of Gleason 4 disease for the prediction of BCR in men with Gleason 7 disease. We analyzed a cohort of 2630 radical prostatectomy cases from 1990-2007. All pathologic Gleason 7 cases were identified and assessed for quantity of Gleason pattern 4. Three methods were used to quantify the extent of Gleason 4: a quantitative Gleason score (qGS) based on the proportion of tumor composed of Gleason pattern 4, a size-weighted score (swGS) incorporating the overall quantity of Gleason 4, and a size index (siGS) incorporating the quantity of Gleason 4 based on the index lesion. Associations between the above metrics and BCR were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. qGS, swGS, and siGS were significantly associated with BCR on multivariate analysis when adjusted for traditional Gleason score, age, prostate specific antigen, surgical margin, and stage. Using Harrell's c-index to compare the scoring systems, qGS (0.83), swGS (0.84), and siGS (0.84) all performed better than the traditional Gleason score (0.82). Quantitative measures of Gleason pattern 4 predict BCR better than the traditional Gleason score. In men with Gleason 7 prostate cancer, quantitative analysis of the proportion of Gleason pattern 4 (quantitative Gleason score), as well as size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 (size-weighted Gleason score), and a size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 based on the largest tumor nodule significantly improve the predicted risk of biochemical recurrence compared with the traditional Gleason score. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-Fluid Management in Prevention of Kidney Stones: A PRISMA-Compliant Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Xu, Chang; Zhang, Chao; Wang, Xiao-Long; Liu, Tong-Zu; Zeng, Xian-Tao; Li, Shen; Duan, Xiao-Wen

2015-07-01

Epidemiologic studies have suggested that daily fluid intake that achieves at least 2.5 L of urine output per day is protective against kidney stones. However, the precise quantitative nature of the association between fluid intake and kidney stone risk, as well as the effect of specific types of fluids on such risk, are not entirely clear.We conducted a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the association between fluid intake and kidney stone risk. Based on a literature search of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases, 15 relevant studies (10 cohort and 5 case-control studies) were selected for inclusion in the meta-analysis with 9601 cases and 351,081 total participants.In the dose-response meta-analysis, we found that each 500 mL increase in water intake was associated with a significantly reduced risk of kidney stone formation (relative risk (RR) = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.98; P < 0.01). Protective associations were also found for an increasing intake of tea (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99; P = 0.02) and alcohol (RR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.85; P < 0.01). A borderline reverse association were observed on coffee intake and risk of kidney stone (RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P = 0.05). The risk of kidney stones was not significantly related to intake of juice (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.10; P = 0.64), soda (RR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.17; P = 0.65), or milk (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03; P = 0.21). Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analyses showed inconsistent results on coffee, alcohol, and milk intake.Increased water intake is associated with a reduced risk of kidney stones; increased consumption of tea and alcohol may reduce kidney stone risk. An average daily water intake was recommended for kidney stone prevention.

Self-Fluid Management in Prevention of Kidney Stones: A PRISMA-Compliant Systematic Review and Dose–Response Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

PubMed Central

Xu, Chang; Zhang, Chao; Wang, Xiao-Long; Liu, Tong-Zu; Zeng, Xian-Tao; Li, Shen; Duan, Xiao-Wen

2015-01-01

Abstract Epidemiologic studies have suggested that daily fluid intake that achieves at least 2.5 L of urine output per day is protective against kidney stones. However, the precise quantitative nature of the association between fluid intake and kidney stone risk, as well as the effect of specific types of fluids on such risk, are not entirely clear. We conducted a systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the association between fluid intake and kidney stone risk. Based on a literature search of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases, 15 relevant studies (10 cohort and 5 case–control studies) were selected for inclusion in the meta-analysis with 9601 cases and 351,081 total participants. In the dose–response meta-analysis, we found that each 500 mL increase in water intake was associated with a significantly reduced risk of kidney stone formation (relative risk (RR) = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.98; P < 0.01). Protective associations were also found for an increasing intake of tea (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99; P = 0.02) and alcohol (RR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.85; P < 0.01). A borderline reverse association were observed on coffee intake and risk of kidney stone (RR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P = 0.05). The risk of kidney stones was not significantly related to intake of juice (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.10; P = 0.64), soda (RR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.17; P = 0.65), or milk (RR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03; P = 0.21). Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analyses showed inconsistent results on coffee, alcohol, and milk intake. Increased water intake is associated with a reduced risk of kidney stones; increased consumption of tea and alcohol may reduce kidney stone risk. An average daily water intake was recommended for kidney stone prevention. PMID:26166074

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public

PubMed Central

Chen, Liangyong

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior. PMID:26526570

The Construct and Measurement of Perceived Risk of Nonremunerated Blood Donation: Evidence from the Chinese Public.

PubMed

Chen, Liangyong; Ma, Zujun

2015-01-01

The perceived risk of nonremunerated blood donation (NRBD) is one of the most important factors which hinder the Chinese public from donating blood. To understand deeply and measure scientifically the public's perceived risk of NRBD, in this paper the qualitative and quantitative methods were used to explore the construct of perceived risk of NRBD in Chinese context. Firstly, the preliminary construct of perceived risk of NRBD was developed based on the grounded theory. Then, a measurement scale of perceived risk of NRBD was designed. Finally, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were adopted for testing and verifying the construct. The results show that the construct of perceived risk of NRBD has three core dimensions, namely, trust risk, psychological risk, and health risk, which provides a clear construct and concise scale to better capture the Chinese public's perceived risk of NRBD. Blood collection agencies can strategically make polices about perceived risk reduction to maximize the public's NRBD behavior.

The health impact of trade and investment agreements: a quantitative systematic review and network co-citation analysis.

PubMed

Barlow, Pepita; McKee, Martin; Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David

2017-03-08

Regional trade agreements are major international policy instruments that shape macro-economic and political systems. There is widespread debate as to whether and how these agreements pose risks to public health. Here we perform a comprehensive systematic review of quantitative studies of the health impact of trade and investment agreements. We identified studies from searches in PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Global Health Online. Research articles were eligible for inclusion if they were quantitative studies of the health impacts of trade and investment agreements or policy. We systematically reviewed study findings, evaluated quality using the Quality Assessment Tool from the Effective Public Health Practice Project, and performed network citation analysis to study disciplinary siloes. Seventeen quantitative studies met our inclusion criteria. There was consistent evidence that implementing trade agreements was associated with increased consumption of processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Granting import licenses for patented drugs was associated with increased access to pharmaceuticals. Implementing trade agreements and associated policies was also correlated with higher cardiovascular disease incidence and higher Body Mass Index (BMI), whilst correlations with tobacco consumption, under-five mortality, maternal mortality, and life expectancy were inconclusive. Overall, the quality of studies is weak or moderately weak, and co-citation analysis revealed a relative isolation of public health from economics. We identified limitations in existing studies which preclude definitive conclusions of the health impacts of regional trade and investment agreements. Few address unobserved confounding, and many possible consequences and mechanisms linking trade and investment agreements to health remain poorly understood. Results from our co-citation analysis suggest scope for greater interdisciplinary collaboration. Notwithstanding these limitations, our results find evidence that trade agreements pose some significant health risks. Health protections in trade and investment treaties may mitigate these impacts.

Education and Risk of Dementia: Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Tan, Lan; Wang, Hui-Fu; Tan, Meng-Shan; Tan, Lin; Li, Jie-Qiong; Zhao, Qing-Fei; Yu, Jin-Tai

2016-07-01

Educational level has been regarded as one of the most widely accepted risk factors in the epidemiological studies for dementia, despite with discordant qualitative results. However, the dose-response relation between education and incident dementia was still unknown. To quantitatively evaluate the association between exposure level to high and low education and risk of dementia, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to November 2014 and references of retrieved literatures. Specific prospective cohort studies, in which educational attainment was categorized into at least three levels, were included. Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess the quality of included studies. Fifteen prospective cohort studies with 55655 for low education and eight prospective cohort studies with 20172 for high education were included. In the qualitative analysis, both low and high education showed a dose-response trend with risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). In the quantitative analysis, the dementia risk was reduced by 7 % for per year increase in education (RR, 0.93; 95 % CI, 0.92-0.94; p for overall trend = 0.000; p for nonlinearity = 0.0643). Nonetheless, we did not find statistically significant association between per year decrease in education and dementia (RR, 1.03; 95 % CI, 0.96-1.10; p for overall trend = 0.283; p for nonlinearity = 0.0041) or AD (RR, 1.03; 95 % CI, 0.97-1.10; p for overall trend = 0.357; p for nonlinearity = 0.0022). Both low and high education showed a trend of dose-response relation with risk of dementia and AD. The dementia risk was reduced by 7 % for per year increase in education.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Mmc; Vis, J Y; Wilms, F F; Oudijk, M A; Kwee, A; Porath, M M; Oei, G; Scheepers, Hcj; Spaanderman, Mea; Bloemenkamp, Kwm; Haak, M C; Bolte, A C; Vandenbussche, Fpha; Woiski, M D; Bax, C J; Cornette, Jmj; Duvekot, J J; Nij Bijvanck, Bwa; van Eyck, J; Franssen, Mtm; Sollie, K M; van der Post, Jam; Bossuyt, Pmm; Opmeer, B C; Kok, M; Mol, Bwj; van Baaren, G-J

2016-11-01

To evaluate whether in symptomatic women, the combination of quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) improves the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN and CL. Post hoc analysis of frozen fFN samples of a nationwide cohort study. Ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. Symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation. The risk of PTD <7 days was estimated in predefined CL and fFN strata. We used logistic regression to develop a model including quantitative fFN and CL, and one including qualitative fFN (threshold 50 ng/ml) and CL. We compared the models' capacity to identify women at low risk (<5%) for delivery within 7 days using a reclassification table. Spontaneous delivery within 7 days after study entry. We studied 350 women, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within 7 days. The risk of PTD in <7 days ranged from 2% in the lowest fFN group (<10 ng/ml) to 71% in the highest group (>500 ng/ml). Multivariable logistic regression showed an increasing risk of PTD in <7 days with rising fFN concentration [10-49 ng/ml: odds ratio (OR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.23-7.0; 50-199 ng/ml: OR 3.2, 95% CI 0.79-13; 200-499 ng/ml: OR 9.0, 95% CI 2.3-35; >500 ng/ml: OR 39, 95% CI 9.4-164] and shortening of the CL (OR 0.86 per mm, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). Use of quantitative fFN instead of qualitative fFN resulted in reclassification of 18 (5%) women from high to low risk, of whom one (6%) woman delivered within 7 days. In symptomatic women, quantitative fFN testing does not improve the prediction of PTD within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN testing in combination with CL measurement in terms of reclassification from high to low (<5%) risk, but it adds value across the risk range. Quantitative fFN testing adds value to qualitative fFN testing with CL measurement in the prediction of PTD. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

PubMed

Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

2010-08-01

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah; Repins, Ingrid L; Hacke, Peter L

Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured accelerationmore » factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.« less

Correlations between quantitative fat–water magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography in human subcutaneous white adipose tissue

PubMed Central

Gifford, Aliya; Walker, Ronald C.; Towse, Theodore F.; Brian Welch, E.

2015-01-01

Abstract. Beyond estimation of depot volumes, quantitative analysis of adipose tissue properties could improve understanding of how adipose tissue correlates with metabolic risk factors. We investigated whether the fat signal fraction (FSF) derived from quantitative fat–water magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans at 3.0 T correlates to CT Hounsfield units (HU) of the same tissue. These measures were acquired in the subcutaneous white adipose tissue (WAT) at the umbilical level of 21 healthy adult subjects. A moderate correlation exists between MRI- and CT-derived WAT values for all subjects, R2=0.54, p<0.0001, with a slope of −2.6, (95% CI [−3.3,−1.8]), indicating that a decrease of 1 HU equals a mean increase of 0.38% FSF. We demonstrate that FSF estimates obtained using quantitative fat–water MRI techniques correlate with CT HU values in subcutaneous WAT, and therefore, MRI-based FSF could be used as an alternative to CT HU for assessing metabolic risk factors. PMID:26702407

Development of More Cost-Effective Methods for Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Vapor Intrusion to Indoor Air Using Quantitative Passive Diffusive-Adsorptive Sampling Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

challenging component of assessing human health risks associated with contaminated soil and groundwater since the late 1990s, during which time...and analysis. 1.3 REGULATORY DRIVERS Regulatory guidance for assessment and management of risks associated with VI has been issued by at least 27...requirements to assess potential human health risks , and this possibility exists where VOCs are present in the subsurface near occupied buildings

Psychosis as a Risk Factor for Violence to Others: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Kevin S.; Guy, Laura S.; Hart, Stephen D.

2009-01-01

The potential association between psychosis and violence to others has long been debated. Past research findings are mixed and appear to depend on numerous potential moderators. As such, the authors conducted a quantitative review (meta-analysis) of research on the association between psychosis and violence. A total of 885 effect sizes (odds…

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smart, Christian

1998-01-01

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Genome-wide Linkage Analysis for Identifying Quantitative Trait Loci Involved in the Regulation of Lipoprotein a (Lpa) Levels

PubMed Central

López, Sonia; Buil, Alfonso; Ordoñez, Jordi; Souto, Juan Carlos; Almasy, Laura; Lathrop, Mark; Blangero, John; Blanco-Vaca, Francisco; Fontcuberta, Jordi; Soria, José Manuel

2009-01-01

Lipoprotein Lp(a) levels are highly heritable and are associated with cardiovascular risk. We performed a genome-wide linkage analysis to delineate the genomic regions that influence the concentration of Lp(a) in families from the Genetic Analysis of Idiopathic Thrombophilia (GAIT) Project. Lp(a) levels were measured in 387 individuals belonging to 21 extended Spanish families. A total of 485 DNA microsatellite markers were genotyped to provide a 7.1 cM genetic map. A variance component linkage method was used to evaluate linkage and to detect quantitative trait loci (QTLs). The main QTL that showed strong evidence of linkage with Lp(a) levels was located at the structural gene for apo(a) on Chromosome 6 (LOD score=13.8). Interestingly, another QTL influencing Lp(a) concentration was located on Chromosome 2 with a LOD score of 2.01. This region contains several candidate genes. One of them is the tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI), which has antithrombotic action and also has the ability to bind lipoproteins. However, quantitative trait association analyses performed with 12 SNPs in TFPI gene revealed no association with Lp(a) levels. Our study confirms previous results on the genetic basis of Lp(a) levels. In addition, we report a new QTL on Chromosome 2 involved in the quantitative variation of Lp(a). These data should serve as the basis for further detection of candidate genes and to elucidate the relationship between the concentration of Lp(a) and cardiovascular risk. PMID:18560444

Risk taking in first and second generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents: an emerging challenge for school nurses.

PubMed

Jolly, Kim; Archibald, Cynthia; Liehr, Patricia

2013-10-01

School nurses are well positioned to address risk-taking behaviors for adolescents in their care. The purpose of this mixed-method exploratory study was to explore risk taking in Afro-Caribbean adolescents in South Florida, comparing first- to second-generation adolescents. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from an immigrant group using the adolescent risk-taking instrument to evaluate risk-taking attitudes, behaviors, and self-described riskiest activities. One-hundred and six adolescents participated; 44% were first generation Afro-Caribbean. Data analysis included analysis of variance, frequencies, and content analysis. There were no differences in risk-taking attitudes; smaller percentages of first generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents reported sexual activity, substance use, and violence. Over one third of the sample, regardless of generational status, reported alcohol use, but did not note alcohol or other health-compromising behaviors as "riskiest" activities. It is important to better understand Afro-Caribbean adolescents' perspectives about risky behaviors, and school-based venues offer the best promise for reaching these adolescents.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

PubMed

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

76 FR 18906 - Mancozeb; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... from mancozeb and ETU in food as follows: i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute dietary exposure and.... Cancer. EPA determines whether quantitative cancer exposure and risk assessments are appropriate for a... quantitative cancer risk assessment is appropriate, cancer risk may be quantified using a linear or nonlinear...

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Sexual scripts and sexual risk behaviors among Black heterosexual men: development of the Sexual Scripts Scale.

PubMed

Bowleg, Lisa; Burkholder, Gary J; Noar, Seth M; Teti, Michelle; Malebranche, David J; Tschann, Jeanne M

2015-04-01

Sexual scripts are widely shared gender and culture-specific guides for sexual behavior with important implications for HIV prevention. Although several qualitative studies document how sexual scripts may influence sexual risk behaviors, quantitative investigations of sexual scripts in the context of sexual risk are rare. This mixed methods study involved the qualitative development and quantitative testing of the Sexual Scripts Scale (SSS). Study 1 included qualitative semi-structured interviews with 30 Black heterosexual men about sexual experiences with main and casual sex partners to develop the SSS. Study 2 included a quantitative test of the SSS with 526 predominantly low-income Black heterosexual men. A factor analysis of the SSS resulted in a 34-item, seven-factor solution that explained 68% of the variance. The subscales and coefficient alphas were: Romantic Intimacy Scripts (α = .86), Condom Scripts (α = .82), Alcohol Scripts (α = .83), Sexual Initiation Scripts (α = .79), Media Sexual Socialization Scripts (α = .84), Marijuana Scripts (α = .85), and Sexual Experimentation Scripts (α = .84). Among men who reported a main partner (n = 401), higher Alcohol Scripts, Media Sexual Socialization Scripts, and Marijuana Scripts scores, and lower Condom Scripts scores were related to more sexual risk behavior. Among men who reported at least one casual partner (n = 238), higher Romantic Intimacy Scripts, Sexual Initiation Scripts, and Media Sexual Socialization Scripts, and lower Condom Scripts scores were related to higher sexual risk. The SSS may have considerable utility for future research on Black heterosexual men's HIV risk.

The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian

2014-11-01

Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

A quality risk management model approach for cell therapy manufacturing.

PubMed

Lopez, Fabio; Di Bartolo, Chiara; Piazza, Tommaso; Passannanti, Antonino; Gerlach, Jörg C; Gridelli, Bruno; Triolo, Fabio

2010-12-01

International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell-based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator-introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot-dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell-based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo-quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Convergent evidence from systematic analysis of GWAS revealed genetic basis of esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Gao, Xue-Xin; Gao, Lei; Wang, Jiu-Qiang; Qu, Su-Su; Qu, Yue; Sun, Hong-Lei; Liu, Si-Dang; Shang, Ying-Li

2016-07-12

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with risk of esophageal cancer (EC). However, investigation of genetic basis from the perspective of systematic biology and integrative genomics remains scarce.In this study, we explored genetic basis of EC based on GWAS data and implemented a series of bioinformatics methods including functional annotation, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and pathway grouped network analysis.Two hundred and thirteen risk SNPs were identified, in which 44 SNPs were found to have significantly differential gene expression in esophageal tissues by eQTL analysis. By pathway enrichment analysis, 170 risk genes mapped by risk SNPs were enriched into 38 significant GO terms and 17 significant KEGG pathways, which were significantly grouped into 9 sub-networks by pathway grouped network analysis. The 9 groups of interconnected pathways were mainly involved with muscle cell proliferation, cellular response to interleukin-6, cell adhesion molecules, and ethanol oxidation, which might participate in the development of EC.Our findings provide genetic evidence and new insight for exploring the molecular mechanisms of EC.

Improved FTA methodology and application to subsea pipeline reliability design.

PubMed

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhang, Mingyuan

2014-01-01

An innovative logic tree, Failure Expansion Tree (FET), is proposed in this paper, which improves on traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It describes a different thinking approach for risk factor identification and reliability risk assessment. By providing a more comprehensive and objective methodology, the rather subjective nature of FTA node discovery is significantly reduced and the resulting mathematical calculations for quantitative analysis are greatly simplified. Applied to the Useful Life phase of a subsea pipeline engineering project, the approach provides a more structured analysis by constructing a tree following the laws of physics and geometry. Resulting improvements are summarized in comparison table form.

Improved FTA Methodology and Application to Subsea Pipeline Reliability Design

PubMed Central

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhang, Mingyuan

2014-01-01

An innovative logic tree, Failure Expansion Tree (FET), is proposed in this paper, which improves on traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It describes a different thinking approach for risk factor identification and reliability risk assessment. By providing a more comprehensive and objective methodology, the rather subjective nature of FTA node discovery is significantly reduced and the resulting mathematical calculations for quantitative analysis are greatly simplified. Applied to the Useful Life phase of a subsea pipeline engineering project, the approach provides a more structured analysis by constructing a tree following the laws of physics and geometry. Resulting improvements are summarized in comparison table form. PMID:24667681

Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of Thoracic Aortic Dissection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yik; Fan, Yi; Cheng, Stephen; Chow, Kwok

2011-11-01

Thoracic Aortic Dissection (TAD) is a cardiovascular disease with high mortality. An aortic dissection is formed when blood infiltrates the layers of the vascular wall, and a new artificial channel, the false lumen, is created. The expansion of the blood vessel due to the weakened wall enhances the risk of rupture. Computational fluid dynamics analysis is performed to study the hemodynamics of this pathological condition. Both idealized geometry and realistic patient configurations from computed tomography (CT) images are investigated. Physiological boundary conditions from in vivo measurements are employed. Flow configuration and biomechanical forces are studied. Quantitative analysis allows clinicians to assess the risk of rupture in making decision regarding surgical intervention.

Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffarian, Reza; Evans, John W.

2014-01-01

For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.

Cardiac imaging: working towards fully-automated machine analysis & interpretation.

PubMed

Slomka, Piotr J; Dey, Damini; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Motwani, Manish; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido

2017-03-01

Non-invasive imaging plays a critical role in managing patients with cardiovascular disease. Although subjective visual interpretation remains the clinical mainstay, quantitative analysis facilitates objective, evidence-based management, and advances in clinical research. This has driven developments in computing and software tools aimed at achieving fully automated image processing and quantitative analysis. In parallel, machine learning techniques have been used to rapidly integrate large amounts of clinical and quantitative imaging data to provide highly personalized individual patient-based conclusions. Areas covered: This review summarizes recent advances in automated quantitative imaging in cardiology and describes the latest techniques which incorporate machine learning principles. The review focuses on the cardiac imaging techniques which are in wide clinical use. It also discusses key issues and obstacles for these tools to become utilized in mainstream clinical practice. Expert commentary: Fully-automated processing and high-level computer interpretation of cardiac imaging are becoming a reality. Application of machine learning to the vast amounts of quantitative data generated per scan and integration with clinical data also facilitates a move to more patient-specific interpretation. These developments are unlikely to replace interpreting physicians but will provide them with highly accurate tools to detect disease, risk-stratify, and optimize patient-specific treatment. However, with each technological advance, we move further from human dependence and closer to fully-automated machine interpretation.

Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

PubMed

Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

2000-01-07

The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

Linking stressors and ecological responses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Solomon, K.R.; Butcher, J.B.; Harrass, M.; Landis, W.G.; Power, M.; Rattner, B.A.; Warren-Hicks, W.J.; Wenger, R.; Foran, Jeffery A.; Ferenc, Susan A.

1999-01-01

To characterize risk, it is necessary to quantify the linkages and interactions between chemical, physical and biological stressors and endpoints in the conceptual framework for ecological risk assessment (ERA). This can present challenges in a multiple stressor analysis, and it will not always be possible to develop a quantitative stressor-response profile. This review commences with a conceptual representation of the problem of developing a linkage analysis for multiple stressors and responses. The remainder of the review surveys a variety of mathematical and statistical methods (e.g., ranking methods, matrix models, multivariate dose-response for mixtures, indices, visualization, simulation modeling and decision-oriented methods) for accomplishing the linkage analysis for multiple stressors. Describing the relationships between multiple stressors and ecological effects are critical components of 'effects assessment' in the ecological risk assessment framework.

Peer effects in risk aversion.

PubMed

Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

2015-01-01

We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling considering methylated trivalent arsenicals

EPA Science Inventory

PBPK modeling provides a quantitative biologically-based framework to integrate diverse types of information for application to risk analysis. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic metabolizing enzymes (AS3MT) can lead to differences in target tissue dosimetry for key tri...

How to model a negligible probability under the WTO sanitary and phytosanitary agreement?

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2013-06-01

Since the 1997 EC--Hormones decision, World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Panels have wrestled with the question of what constitutes a negligible risk under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. More recently, the 2010 WTO Australia--Apples Panel focused considerable attention on the appropriate quantitative model for a negligible probability in a risk assessment. The 2006 Australian Import Risk Analysis for Apples from New Zealand translated narrative probability statements into quantitative ranges. The uncertainty about a "negligible" probability was characterized as a uniform distribution with a minimum value of zero and a maximum value of 10(-6) . The Australia - Apples Panel found that the use of this distribution would tend to overestimate the likelihood of "negligible" events and indicated that a triangular distribution with a most probable value of zero and a maximum value of 10⁻⁶ would correct the bias. The Panel observed that the midpoint of the uniform distribution is 5 × 10⁻⁷ but did not consider that the triangular distribution has an expected value of 3.3 × 10⁻⁷. Therefore, if this triangular distribution is the appropriate correction, the magnitude of the bias found by the Panel appears modest. The Panel's detailed critique of the Australian risk assessment, and the conclusions of the WTO Appellate Body about the materiality of flaws found by the Panel, may have important implications for the standard of review for risk assessments under the WTO SPS Agreement. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

2014-05-01

Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and socio-ecological processes. Also there is important positive feedback of risk perception function to distribution function. Risk perception is essentially depends of short-term recent events impact in multi agent media. This is managed function. The generalized view of awareness function is proposed: α(t) = δΣ ic - rpi. Using this form separate parameters has been calculated. For example, risk perception function is about 15-55% of awareness function depends of education, age and social status of people. Also it was estimated that fraction of awareness function in damage function, and so in function of risk is about 15-20%. It means that no less than 8-12% of direct losses depend of short-term responsible behavior of 'information agents': social activity of experts, scientists, correct discussions on ethical issues in geo-sciences and media. Other 6-9% of losses are connected with level of public and professional education. This area is also should be field of responsibility of geo-scientists.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

The Use of a Situation-Comedy in the Delivery of Media Messages: A Content Analysis of Health-Related Themes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trunfio, Tony N.

2011-01-01

A quantitative-qualitative historical content analysis of selected Seinfeld television comedy episodes was conducted for this study. Episodes were analyzed for the presence of health-related messages pertaining to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's health priority areas, which include the most harmful risk behaviors affecting…

Two-stage open reduction and internal fixation versus limited internal fixation combined with external fixation: a meta-analysis of postoperative complications in patients with severe Pilon fractures.

PubMed

Cui, Xueliang; Chen, Hui; Rui, Yunfeng; Niu, Yang; Li, He

2018-01-01

Objectives Two-stage open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) and limited internal fixation combined with external fixation (LIFEF) are two widely used methods to treat Pilon injury. However, which method is superior to the other remains controversial. This meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively compare two-stage ORIF and LIFEF and clarify which method is better with respect to postoperative complications in the treatment of tibial Pilon fractures. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis to quantitatively compare the postoperative complications between two-stage ORIF and LIFEF. Eight studies involving 360 fractures in 359 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Results The two-stage ORIF group had a significantly lower risk of superficial infection, nonunion, and bone healing problems than the LIFEF group. However, no significant differences in deep infection, delayed union, malunion, arthritis symptoms, or chronic osteomyelitis were found between the two groups. Conclusion Two-stage ORIF was associated with a lower risk of postoperative complications with respect to superficial infection, nonunion, and bone healing problems than LIFEF for tibial Pilon fractures. Level of evidence 2.

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duzgun, H. S. B.

2009-04-01

Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them, four of the slides caused formation of tsunami waves which washed up to 74 m above the lake level. Two of the slides resulted in many fatalities in the inner part of the Loen Valley as well as great damages. There are three predominant joint structures in Ramnefjell Mountain, which controls failure and the geometry of the slides. The first joint set is a foliation plane striking northeast-southwest and dipping 35˚ -40˚ to the east-southeast. The second and the third joint sets are almost perpendicular and parallel to the mountain side and scarp, respectively. These three joint sets form slices of rock columns with width ranging between 7-10 m and height of 400-450 m. It is stated that the joints in set II are opened between 1-2 m, which may bring about collection of water during heavy rainfall or snow melt causing the slices to be pressed out. It is estimated that water in the vertical joints both reduces the shear strength of sliding plane and causes reduction of normal stress on the sliding plane due to formation of uplift force. Hence rock slides in Ramnefjell mountain occur in plane failure mode. The quantitative evaluation of rock slide risk requires probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and identification of consequences if the rock slide occurs. In this study failure probability of a rock slice is evaluated by first-order reliability method (FORM). Then in order to use the calculated probability of failure value (Pf) in risk analyses, it is required to associate this Pf with frequency based probabilities (i.ePf / year) since the computed failure probabilities is a measure of hazard and not a measure of risk unless they are associated with the consequences of the failure. This can be done by either considering the time dependent behavior of the basic variables in the probabilistic models or associating the computed Pf with frequency of the failures in the region. In this study, the frequency of previous rock slides in the previous century in Remnefjell is used for evaluation of frequency based probability to be used in risk assessment. The major consequence of a rock slide is generation of a tsunami in the lake Loen, causing inundation of residential areas around the lake. Risk is assessed by adapting damage probability matrix approach, which is originally developed for risk assessment for buildings in case of earthquake.

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Example of Risk Informed Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banke, Rick; Grant, Warren; Wilson, Paul

2014-01-01

NASA Engineering requested a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to compare the difference in the risk of Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) between different designs of a fluid assembly. They were concerned that the configuration favored by the design team was more susceptible to leakage than a second proposed design, but realized that a quantitative analysis to compare the risks between the two designs might strengthen their argument. The analysis showed that while the second design did help improve the probability of LOC, it did not help from a probability of LOM perspective. This drove the analysis team to propose a minor design change that would drive the probability of LOM down considerably. The analysis also demonstrated that there was another major risk driver that was not immediately obvious from a typical engineering study of the design and was therefore unexpected. None of the proposed alternatives were addressing this risk. This type of trade study demonstrates the importance of performing a PRA in order to completely understand a system's design. It allows managers to use risk as another one of the commodities (e.g., mass, cost, schedule, fault tolerance) that can be traded early in the design of a new system.

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D; Druwe, Ingrid L; Painter, Kyle; Yost, Erin E

2017-02-01

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values, and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based meta-regression can be used to integrate data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an in vitro point of departure of 0.751 μM and risk-specific in vitro concentrations of 0.29 μM and 0.28 μM for 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 risk, respectively, for DNA damage. Based on the available evidence, and considering that only a single HSD17B4 assay is available, we have low overall confidence in the steatosis hazard identification. This case study suggests that coupling qHTS assays with AOPs and ontologies will facilitate hazard identification. Combining this with quantitative evidence integration methods, such as bootstrap meta-regression, may allow risk assessors to identify points of departure and risk-specific internal/in vitro concentrations. These results are sufficient to prioritize the chemicals; however, in the longer term we will need to estimate external doses for risk screening purposes, such as through margin of exposure methods. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

PubMed Central

Hong, Tao; Gurian, Patrick L.; Huang, Yin; Haas, Charles N.

2012-01-01

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities. PMID:22412915

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

PubMed Central

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plakaloic, D.; Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, R. C.; Newman, L. K.

2011-01-01

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Concerns related to Safety Management of Engineered Nanomaterials in research environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groso, A.; Meyer, Th

2013-04-01

Since the rise of occupational safety and health research on nanomaterials a lot of progress has been made in generating health effects and exposure data. However, when detailed quantitative risk analysis is in question, more research is needed, especially quantitative measures of workers exposure and standards to categorize toxicity/hazardousness data. In the absence of dose-response relationships and quantitative exposure measurements, control banding (CB) has been widely adopted by OHS community as a pragmatic tool in implementing a risk management strategy based on a precautionary approach. Being in charge of health and safety in a Swiss university, where nanomaterials are largely used and produced, we are also faced with the challenge related to nanomaterials' occupational safety. In this work, we discuss the field application of an in-house risk management methodology similar to CB as well as some other methodologies. The challenges and issues related to the process will be discussed. Since exact data on nanomaterials hazardousness are missing for most of the situations, we deduce that the outcome of the analysis for a particular process is essentially the same with a simple methodology that determines only exposure potential and the one taking into account the hazardousness of ENPs. It is evident that when reliable data on hazardousness factors (as surface chemistry, solubility, carcinogenicity, toxicity etc.) will be available, more differentiation will be possible in determining the risk for different materials. On the protective measures side, all CB methodologies are inclined to overprotection side, only that some of them suggest comprehensive protective/preventive measures and others remain with basic advices. The implementation and control of protective measures in research environment will also be discussed.

A simulation model of IT risk on program trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Bingying; Jiang, Wenbao; Luo, Guangxuan

2015-12-01

The biggest difficulty for Program trading IT risk measures lies in the loss of data, in view of this situation, the current scholars approach is collecting court, network and other public media such as all kinds of accident of IT both at home and abroad for data collection, and the loss of IT risk quantitative analysis based on this database. However, the IT risk loss database established by this method can only fuzzy reflect the real situation and not for real to make fundamental explanation. In this paper, based on the study of the concept and steps of the MC simulation, we use computer simulation method, by using the MC simulation method in the "Program trading simulation system" developed by team to simulate the real programming trading and get the IT risk loss of data through its IT failure experiment, at the end of the article, on the effectiveness of the experimental data is verified. In this way, better overcome the deficiency of the traditional research method and solves the problem of lack of IT risk data in quantitative research. More empirically provides researchers with a set of simulation method are used to study the ideas and the process template.

Quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE to investigate the effects of cigarette smoke and aerosol of a prototypic modified risk tobacco product on the lung proteome in C57BL/6 mice.

PubMed

Elamin, Ashraf; Titz, Bjoern; Dijon, Sophie; Merg, Celine; Geertz, Marcel; Schneider, Thomas; Martin, Florian; Schlage, Walter K; Frentzel, Stefan; Talamo, Fabio; Phillips, Blaine; Veljkovic, Emilija; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Vanscheeuwijck, Patrick; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2016-08-11

Smoking is associated with several serious diseases, such as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Within our systems toxicology framework, we are assessing whether potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTP) can reduce smoking-related health risks compared to conventional cigarettes. In this article, we evaluated to what extent 2D-PAGE/MALDI MS/MS (2D-PAGE) can complement the iTRAQ LC-MS/MS results from a previously reported mouse inhalation study, in which we assessed a prototypic MRTP (pMRTP). Selected differentially expressed proteins identified by both LC-MS/MS and 2D-PAGE approaches were further verified using reverse-phase protein microarrays. LC-MS/MS captured the effects of cigarette smoke (CS) on the lung proteome more comprehensively than 2D-PAGE. However, an integrated analysis of both proteomics data sets showed that 2D-PAGE data complement the LC-MS/MS results by supporting the overall trend of lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than CS on the lung proteome. Biological effects of CS exposure supported by both methods included increases in immune-related, surfactant metabolism, proteasome, and actin cytoskeleton protein clusters. Overall, while 2D-PAGE has its value, especially as a complementary method for the analysis of effects on intact proteins, LC-MS/MS approaches will likely be the method of choice for proteome analysis in systems toxicology investigations. Quantitative proteomics is anticipated to play a growing role within systems toxicology assessment frameworks in the future. To further understand how different proteomics technologies can contribute to toxicity assessment, we conducted a quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE and isobaric tag-based LC-MS/MS approaches and compared the results produced from the 2 approaches. Using a prototypic modified risk tobacco product (pMRTP) as our test item, we show compared with cigarette smoke, how 2D-PAGE results can complement and support LC-MS/MS data, demonstrating the much lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than cigarette smoke on the mouse lung proteome. The combined analysis of 2D-PAGE and LC-MS/MS data identified an effect of cigarette smoke on the proteasome and actin cytoskeleton in the lung. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relating Data and Models to Characterize Parameter and Prediction Uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

Applying PBPK models in risk analysis requires that we realistically assess the uncertainty of relevant model predictions in as quantitative a way as possible. The reality of human variability may add a confusing feature to the overall uncertainty assessment, as uncertainty and v...

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of PCB126 induced developmental toxicity in zebrafish

EPA Science Inventory

Polychlorinated dioxins and biphenyls are potent developmental toxicants which persist in the environment and pose risk to ecological and human health. Variation in susceptibility to this class of compounds has been demonstrated within and among several piscine, avian and mammali...

The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Merel M C; Kamphuis, Esme I; Hoesli, Irene M; Martinez de Tejada, Begoña; Loccufier, Anne R; Kühnert, Maritta; Helmer, Hanns; Franz, Marie; Porath, Martina M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Jacquemyn, Yves; Schulzke, Sven M; Vetter, Grit; Hoste, Griet; Vis, Jolande Y; Kok, Marjolein; Mol, Ben W J; van Baaren, Gert-Jan

2016-12-01

The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk (preterm birth rate, 33%) using a threshold of >500 ng/mL in women with a cervix at >30 mm. In women with threatened preterm birth, quantitative fibronectin testing alone performs equal to the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Possibly, the combination of quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length increases this predictive capacity. Cost-effectiveness analysis and the availability of these tests in a local setting should determine the final choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dose-Dependent Associations between Wine Drinking and Breast Cancer Risk - Meta-Analysis Findings.

PubMed

Chen, Jia-Yan; Zhu, Hong-Cheng; Guo, Qing; Shu, Zheng; Bao, Xu-Hui; Sun, Feng; Qin, Qin; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Chi; Cheng, Hong-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chen

2016-01-01

To investigate any potential association between wine and breast cancer risk. We quantitatively assessed associations by conducting a meta-analysis based on evidence from observational studies. In May 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase and the Cochrane Library to identify studies examining the effect of wine drinking on breast cancer incidence. The relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) were used to measure any such association. The analysis was further stratified by confounding factors that could influence the results. A total of twenty-six studies (eight case-control and eighteen cohort studies) involving 21,149 cases were included in our meta-analysis. Our study demonstrated that wine drinking was associated with breast cancer risk. A 36% increase in breast cancer risk was observed across overall studies based on the highest versus lowest model, with a combined RR of 1.0059 (95%CI 0.97-1.05) in dose-response analysis. However, 5 g/d ethanol from wine seemed to have protective value from our non-linear model. Our findings indicate that wine drinking is associated with breast cancer risk in a dose-dependent manner. High consumption of wine contributes to breast cancer risk with protection exerted by low doses. Further investigations are needed for clarification.

Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

PubMed

de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

2012-01-01

The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

Sexual Scripts and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Black Heterosexual Men: Development of the Sexual Scripts Scale

PubMed Central

Bowleg, Lisa; Burkholder, Gary J.; Noar, Seth M.; Teti, Michelle; Malebranche, David J.; Tschann, Jeanne M.

2014-01-01

Sexual scripts are widely shared gender and culture-specific guides for sexual behavior with important implications for HIV prevention. Although several qualitative studies document how sexual scripts may influence sexual risk behaviors, quantitative investigations of sexual scripts in the context of sexual risk are rare. This mixed methods study involved the qualitative development and quantitative testing of the Sexual Scripts Scale (SSS). Study 1 included qualitative semi-structured interviews with 30 Black heterosexual men about sexual experiences with main and casual sex partners to develop the SSS. Study 2 included a quantitative test of the SSS with 526 predominantly low-income Black heterosexual men. A factor analysis of the SSS resulted in a 34-item, seven-factor solution that explained 68% of the variance. The subscales and coefficient alphas were: Romantic Intimacy Scripts (α = .86), Condom Scripts (α = .82), Alcohol Scripts (α = .83), Sexual Initiation Scripts (α = .79), Media Sexual Socialization Scripts (α = .84), Marijuana Scripts (α = .85), and Sexual Experimentation Scripts (α = .84). Among men who reported a main partner (n = 401), higher Alcohol Scripts, Media Sexual Socialization Scripts, and Marijuana Scripts scores, and lower Condom Scripts scores were related to more sexual risk behavior. Among men who reported at least one casual partner (n = 238), higher Romantic Intimacy Scripts, Sexual Initiation Scripts, and Media Sexual Socialization Scripts, and lower Condom Scripts scores were related to higher sexual risk. The SSS may have considerable utility for future research on Black heterosexual men’s HIV risk. PMID:24311105

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Regression Analysis on Early-Life Energy Restriction and Cancer Risk in Humans.

PubMed

Elands, Rachel J J; Simons, Colinda C J M; Dongen, Martien van; Schouten, Leo J; Verhage, Bas A J; van den Brandt, Piet A; Weijenberg, Matty P

2016-01-01

In animal models, long-term moderate energy restriction (ER) is reported to decelerate carcinogenesis, whereas the effect of severe ER is inconsistent. The impact of early-life ER on cancer risk has never been reviewed systematically and quantitatively based on observational studies in humans. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and a meta-(regression) analysis on cohort studies to clarify the association between early-life ER and organ site-specific cancer risk. PubMed and EMBASE (1982 -August 2015) were searched for observational studies. Summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a random effects model when available ≥3 studies. Twenty-four studies were included. Eleven publications, emanating from seven prospective cohort studies and some reporting on multiple cancer endpoints, met the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. Women exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220-1660 kcal/day) had a higher breast cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE all ages = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05-1.56; RRRE for 10-20 years of age = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09-1.34). Men exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220-800kcal/day) had a higher prostate cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30). Summary relative risks were not computed for colorectal cancer, because of heterogeneity, and for stomach-, pancreas-, ovarian-, and respiratory cancer because there were <3 available studies. Longer duration of exposure to ER, after adjustment for severity, was positively associated with overall cancer risk in women (p = 0.02). Ecological studies suggest that less severe ER is generally associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Early-life transient severe ER seems to be associated with increased cancer risk in the breast (particularly ER exposure at adolescent age) and prostate. The duration, rather than severity of exposure to ER, seems to positively influence relative risk estimates. This result should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of studies and difficulty in disentangling duration, severity, and geographical setting of exposure.

A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Regression Analysis on Early-Life Energy Restriction and Cancer Risk in Humans

PubMed Central

Elands, Rachel J. J.; Simons, Colinda C. J. M.; van Dongen, Martien; Schouten, Leo J.; Verhage, Bas A. J.; van den Brandt, Piet A.; Weijenberg, Matty P.

2016-01-01

Background In animal models, long-term moderate energy restriction (ER) is reported to decelerate carcinogenesis, whereas the effect of severe ER is inconsistent. The impact of early-life ER on cancer risk has never been reviewed systematically and quantitatively based on observational studies in humans. Objective We conducted a systematic review of observational studies and a meta-(regression) analysis on cohort studies to clarify the association between early-life ER and organ site-specific cancer risk. Methods PubMed and EMBASE (1982 –August 2015) were searched for observational studies. Summary relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a random effects model when available ≥3 studies. Results Twenty-four studies were included. Eleven publications, emanating from seven prospective cohort studies and some reporting on multiple cancer endpoints, met the inclusion criteria for quantitative analysis. Women exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220–1660 kcal/day) had a higher breast cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE all ages = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.05–1.56; RRRE for 10–20 years of age = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09–1.34). Men exposed to early-life ER (ranging from 220–800kcal/day) had a higher prostate cancer risk than those not exposed (RRRE = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03–1.30). Summary relative risks were not computed for colorectal cancer, because of heterogeneity, and for stomach-, pancreas-, ovarian-, and respiratory cancer because there were <3 available studies. Longer duration of exposure to ER, after adjustment for severity, was positively associated with overall cancer risk in women (p = 0.02). Ecological studies suggest that less severe ER is generally associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Conclusions Early-life transient severe ER seems to be associated with increased cancer risk in the breast (particularly ER exposure at adolescent age) and prostate. The duration, rather than severity of exposure to ER, seems to positively influence relative risk estimates. This result should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of studies and difficulty in disentangling duration, severity, and geographical setting of exposure. PMID:27643873

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-01-01

Background Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with “exposure” to virus/vector and one with “susceptibility” of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. Conclusion This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors. PMID:19597548

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

PubMed

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-07-14

Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

Pulmonary nodule characterization, including computer analysis and quantitative features.

PubMed

Bartholmai, Brian J; Koo, Chi Wan; Johnson, Geoffrey B; White, Darin B; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Moynagh, Michael R; Lindell, Rebecca M; Hartman, Thomas E

2015-03-01

Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.

A DOSIMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE ACUTE BEHAVIORAL EFFECTS OF INHALED TOLUENE IN RATS

EPA Science Inventory

Knowledge of the appropriate metric of dose for a toxic chemical facilitates quantitative extrapolation of toxicity observed in the laboratory to the risk of adverse effects in the human population. Here we utilize a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) model for toluene, a...

Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

DOEpatents

Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

2010-12-14

A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides

PubMed Central

Kniss, Andrew R.; Coburn, Carl W.

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman’s rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact. PMID:26121252

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Coburn, Carl W

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman's rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.

Sexual Pleasure and Sexual Risk among Women who Use Methamphetamine: A Mixed Methods Study

PubMed Central

Lorvick, Jennifer; Bourgois, Philippe; Wenger, Lynn D.; Arreola, Sonya G.; Lutnick, Alexandra; Wechsberg, Wendee M.; Kral, Alex H.

2012-01-01

Background The intersection of drug use, sexual pleasure and sexual risk behavior is rarely explored when it comes to poor women who use drugs. This paper explores the relationship between sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in a community-based sample of women, exploring not only risk, but also desire, pleasure and the challenges of overcoming trauma. Methods Quantitative data were collected using standard epidemiological methods (N=322) for community-based studies. In addition, using purposive sampling, qualitative data were collected among a subset of participants (n=34). Data were integrated for mixed methods analysis. Results While many participants reported sexual risk behavior (unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse) in the quantitative survey, sexual risk was not the central narrative pertaining to sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in qualitative findings. Rather, desire, pleasure and disinhibition arose as central themes. Women described feelings of power and agency related to sexual behavior while high on methamphetamine. Findings were mixed on whether methamphetamine use increased sexual risk behavior. Conclusion The use of mixed methods afforded important insights into the sexual behavior and priorities of methamphetamine-using women. Efforts to reduce sexual risk should recognize and valorize the positive aspects of methamphetamine use for some women, building on positive feelings of power and agency as an approach to harm minimization. PMID:22954501

Lycopene Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Yang, Hui-Hui; Liu, Yan; Zhou, Quan; Chen, Zi-Hua

2016-10-01

A number of epidemiological studies have explored the association between lycopene or lycopene-rich food intake and the risk of colorectal cancer, but the results of these studies have not been consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in the PubMed and EMBASE databases to quantitatively assess the association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 15 studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the summary relative risk (RR) for highest versus lowest category indicated no significant association between lycopene consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer [RR = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-1.10]. However, a significant inverse association was observed between lycopene consumption and the site of cancer in the colon (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81-0.96). We also found that the incidence of colon cancer and lycopene intake did not exhibit dose-response relationships. The Grades of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) quality in our study was very low. In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicates that lycopene consumption is not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Further research will be needed in this area to provide conclusive evidence.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation ofmore » the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.« less

A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

2015-09-22

A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121-1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

PubMed

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

PubMed

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with < 90% accuracy were excluded. Standardised image features were calculated, and a series of prognostic models were developed using identical clinical data. The proportion of patients changing risk classification group were calculated. Out of nine PET segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

Using multiscale texture and density features for near-term breast cancer risk analysis

PubMed Central

Sun, Wenqing; Tseng, Tzu-Liang (Bill); Qian, Wei; Zhang, Jianying; Saltzstein, Edward C.; Zheng, Bin; Lure, Fleming; Yu, Hui; Zhou, Shi

2015-01-01

Purpose: To help improve efficacy of screening mammography by eventually establishing a new optimal personalized screening paradigm, the authors investigated the potential of using the quantitative multiscale texture and density feature analysis of digital mammograms to predict near-term breast cancer risk. Methods: The authors’ dataset includes digital mammograms acquired from 340 women. Among them, 141 were positive and 199 were negative/benign cases. The negative digital mammograms acquired from the “prior” screening examinations were used in the study. Based on the intensity value distributions, five subregions at different scales were extracted from each mammogram. Five groups of features, including density and texture features, were developed and calculated on every one of the subregions. Sequential forward floating selection was used to search for the effective combinations. Using the selected features, a support vector machine (SVM) was optimized using a tenfold validation method to predict the risk of each woman having image-detectable cancer in the next sequential mammography screening. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used as the performance assessment index. Results: From a total number of 765 features computed from multiscale subregions, an optimal feature set of 12 features was selected. Applying this feature set, a SVM classifier yielded performance of AUC = 0.729 ± 0.021. The positive predictive value was 0.657 (92 of 140) and the negative predictive value was 0.755 (151 of 200). Conclusions: The study results demonstrated a moderately high positive association between risk prediction scores generated by the quantitative multiscale mammographic image feature analysis and the actual risk of a woman having an image-detectable breast cancer in the next subsequent examinations. PMID:26127038

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiac imaging: working towards fully-automated machine analysis & interpretation

PubMed Central

Slomka, Piotr J; Dey, Damini; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Motwani, Manish; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido

2017-01-01

Introduction Non-invasive imaging plays a critical role in managing patients with cardiovascular disease. Although subjective visual interpretation remains the clinical mainstay, quantitative analysis facilitates objective, evidence-based management, and advances in clinical research. This has driven developments in computing and software tools aimed at achieving fully automated image processing and quantitative analysis. In parallel, machine learning techniques have been used to rapidly integrate large amounts of clinical and quantitative imaging data to provide highly personalized individual patient-based conclusions. Areas covered This review summarizes recent advances in automated quantitative imaging in cardiology and describes the latest techniques which incorporate machine learning principles. The review focuses on the cardiac imaging techniques which are in wide clinical use. It also discusses key issues and obstacles for these tools to become utilized in mainstream clinical practice. Expert commentary Fully-automated processing and high-level computer interpretation of cardiac imaging are becoming a reality. Application of machine learning to the vast amounts of quantitative data generated per scan and integration with clinical data also facilitates a move to more patient-specific interpretation. These developments are unlikely to replace interpreting physicians but will provide them with highly accurate tools to detect disease, risk-stratify, and optimize patient-specific treatment. However, with each technological advance, we move further from human dependence and closer to fully-automated machine interpretation. PMID:28277804

Using computer-based video analysis in the study of fidgety movements.

PubMed

Adde, Lars; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Jensenius, Alexander Refsum; Taraldsen, Gunnar; Støen, Ragnhild

2009-09-01

Absence of fidgety movements (FM) in high-risk infants is a strong marker for later cerebral palsy (CP). FMs can be classified by the General Movement Assessment (GMA), based on Gestalt perception of the infant's movement pattern. More objective movement analysis may be provided by computer-based technology. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of a computer-based video analysis of infants' spontaneous movements in classifying non-fidgety versus fidgety movements. GMA was performed from video material of the fidgety period in 82 term and preterm infants at low and high risks of developing CP. The same videos were analysed using the developed software called General Movement Toolbox (GMT) with visualisation of the infant's movements for qualitative analyses. Variables derived from the calculation of displacement of pixels from one video frame to the next were used for quantitative analyses. Visual representations from GMT showed easily recognisable patterns of FMs. Of the eight quantitative variables derived, the variability in displacement of a spatial centre of active pixels in the image had the highest sensitivity (81.5) and specificity (70.0) in classifying FMs. By setting triage thresholds at 90% sensitivity and specificity for FM, the need for further referral was reduced by 70%. Video recordings can be used for qualitative and quantitative analyses of FMs provided by GMT. GMT is easy to implement in clinical practice, and may provide assistance in detecting infants without FMs.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

An assessment of the risk of foreign animal disease introduction into the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships.

PubMed

McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Fite, R W; Miller, L

1993-12-01

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

Failure mode and effects analysis: too little for too much?

PubMed

Dean Franklin, Bryony; Shebl, Nada Atef; Barber, Nick

2012-07-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a structured prospective risk assessment method that is widely used within healthcare. FMEA involves a multidisciplinary team mapping out a high-risk process of care, identifying the failures that can occur, and then characterising each of these in terms of probability of occurrence, severity of effects and detectability, to give a risk priority number used to identify failures most in need of attention. One might assume that such a widely used tool would have an established evidence base. This paper considers whether or not this is the case, examining the evidence for the reliability and validity of its outputs, the mathematical principles behind the calculation of a risk prioirty number, and variation in how it is used in practice. We also consider the likely advantages of this approach, together with the disadvantages in terms of the healthcare professionals' time involved. We conclude that although FMEA is popular and many published studies have reported its use within healthcare, there is little evidence to support its use for the quantitative prioritisation of process failures. It lacks both reliability and validity, and is very time consuming. We would not recommend its use as a quantitative technique to prioritise, promote or study patient safety interventions. However, the stage of FMEA involving multidisciplinary mapping process seems valuable and work is now needed to identify the best way of converting this into plans for action.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Publishing a Microbial Density Time Series as a Txt File

EPA Science Inventory

A SARA Timeseries Utility supports analysis and management of time-varying environmental data including listing, graphing, computing statistics, computing meteorological data and saving in a WDM or text file. File formats supported include WDM, HSPF Binary (.hbn), USGS RDB, and T...

Developing and Assessing E-Learning Techniques for Teaching Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gel, Yulia R.; O'Hara Hines, R. Jeanette; Chen, He; Noguchi, Kimihiro; Schoner, Vivian

2014-01-01

In the modern business environment, managers are increasingly required to perform decision making and evaluate related risks based on quantitative information in the face of uncertainty, which in turn increases demand for business professionals with sound skills and hands-on experience with statistical data analysis. Computer-based training…

AGE-RELATED DIFFERENCES IN SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CARCINOGENESIS - A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL ANIMAL BIOASSAY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

As part of its revision of cancer risk assessment guidelines, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has assembled and analyzed animal cancer bioassay data for exposures to mutagenic and putatively non-mutagenic chemicals over different periods of life. This paper reports an i...

Predictors of Youth Violence. Juvenile Justice Bulletin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hawkins, J. David; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Farrington, David P.; Brewer, Devon; Catalano, Richard F.; Harachi, Tracy W.; Cothern, Lynn

This Bulletin describes the strength and duration of changeable risk and protective factors for youth violence at points in youth development when they appear most salient. These predictors are potential targets for prevention and intervention. The quantitative results of a large number of studies were synthesized using meta-analysis procedures.…

78 FR 56720 - Government-Owned Inventions; Availability for Licensing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-13

...-valve replacement in high-risk patients. N Engl J Med. 2011 Jun 9;364(23):2187-98. [PMID 21639811... be activated upon demand to release the therapeutic agent at the desired site. The concurrent release... streamlined for high-throughput analysis. Quantitative molecular diagnostics. Unique microRNAs and/or mRNAs...

75 FR 25239 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-07

... human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

A quantitative risk-assessment system (QR-AS) evaluating operation safety of Organic Rankine Cycle using flammable mixture working fluid.

PubMed

Tian, Hua; Wang, Xueying; Shu, Gequn; Wu, Mingqiang; Yan, Nanhua; Ma, Xiaonan

2017-09-15

Mixture of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide shows excellent cycle performance in Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) used for engine waste heat recovery, but the unavoidable leakage in practical application is a threat for safety due to its flammability. In this work, a quantitative risk assessment system (QR-AS) is established aiming at providing a general method of risk assessment for flammable working fluid leakage. The QR-AS covers three main aspects: analysis of concentration distribution based on CFD simulations, explosive risk assessment based on the TNT equivalent method and risk mitigation based on evaluation results. A typical case of propane/carbon dioxide mixture leaking from ORC is investigated to illustrate the application of QR-AS. According to the assessment results, proper ventilation speed, safe mixture ratio and location of gas-detecting devices have been proposed to guarantee the security in case of leakage. The results revealed that this presented QR-AS was reliable for the practical application and the evaluation results could provide valuable guidance for the design of mitigation measures to improve the safe performance of ORC system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Diesel engine exhaust and lung cancer mortality: time-related factors in exposure and risk.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Chang, Ellen T; Luebeck, Georg; Lau, Edmund C; Watson, Heather N; Crump, Kenny S; Boffetta, Paolo; McClellan, Roger

2015-04-01

To develop a quantitative exposure-response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC-associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure-response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

[The urgent problems of the improvement of the environment management system based on the analysis of health risk assessment].

PubMed

Avaliani, S L; Novikov, S M; Shashina, T A; Dodina, N S; Kislitsin, V A; Mishina, A L

2014-01-01

The lack of adequate legislative and regulatory framework for ensuring minimization of the health risks in the field of environmental protection is the obstacle for the application of the risk analysis methodology as a leading tool for administrative activity in Russia. "Principles of the state policy in the sphere of ensuring chemical and biological safety of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and beyond", approved by the President of the Russian Federation on 01 November 2013, No PR-25 73, are aimed at the legal support for the health risk analysis methodology. In the article there have been supposed the main stages of the operative control of the environmental quality, which lead to the reduction of the health risk to the acceptable level. The further improvement of the health risk analysis methodology in Russia should contribute to the implementation of the state policy in the sphere of chemical and biological safety through the introduction of complex measures on neutralization of chemical and biological threats to the human health and the environment, as well as evaluation of the economic effectiveness of these measures. The primary step should be the legislative securing of the quantitative value for the term: "acceptable risk".

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies

PubMed Central

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. Methods We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. Results The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was −1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (−0.18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (−1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or forgone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24892175

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

PubMed

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-03-01

To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

2017-05-01

Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics.

PubMed

Ronza, A; Carol, S; Espejo, V; Vílchez, J A; Arnaldos, J

2006-01-16

A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.

Use of Modal Acoustic Emission to Monitor Damage Progression in Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Tows and Implications for Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waller, Jess M.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Nichols, Charles T.; Wentzel, Daniel J.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Modal Acoustic Emission to monitor damage progression to carbon fiber/epoxy tows. There is a risk for catastrophic failure of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) due to burst-before-leak (BBL) stress rupture (SR) failure of carbon-epoxy (C/Ep) COPVs. A lack of quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is causing problems in current and future spacecraft designs. It is therefore important to develop and demonstrate critical NDE that can be implemented during stages of the design process since the observed rupture can occur with little of no advanced warning. Therefore a program was required to develop quantitative acoustic emission (AE) procedures specific to C/Ep overwraps, but which also have utility for monitoring damage accumulation in composite structure in general, and to lay the groundwork for establishing critical thresholds for accumulated damage in composite structures, such as COPVs, so that precautionary or preemptive engineering steps can be implemented to minimize of obviate the risk of catastrophic failure. A computed Felicity Ratio (FR) coupled with fast Fourier Transform (FFT) frequency analysis shows promise as an analytical pass/fail criterion. The FR analysis and waveform and FFT analysis are reviewed

Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

PubMed

Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

2016-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability for ASD can accumulate in a given family in successive generations.

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

Development of quantitative security optimization approach for the picture archives and carrying system between a clinic and a rehabilitation center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haneda, Kiyofumi; Kajima, Toshio; Koyama, Tadashi; Muranaka, Hiroyuki; Dojo, Hirofumi; Aratani, Yasuhiko

2002-05-01

The target of our study is to analyze the level of necessary security requirements, to search for suitable security measures and to optimize security distribution to every portion of the medical practice. Quantitative expression must be introduced to our study, if possible, to enable simplified follow-up security procedures and easy evaluation of security outcomes or results. Using fault tree analysis (FTA), system analysis showed that system elements subdivided into groups by details result in a much more accurate analysis. Such subdivided composition factors greatly depend on behavior of staff, interactive terminal devices, kinds of services provided, and network routes. Security measures were then implemented based on the analysis results. In conclusion, we identified the methods needed to determine the required level of security and proposed security measures for each medical information system, and the basic events and combinations of events that comprise the threat composition factors. Methods for identifying suitable security measures were found and implemented. Risk factors for each basic event, a number of elements for each composition factor, and potential security measures were found. Methods to optimize the security measures for each medical information system were proposed, developing the most efficient distribution of risk factors for basic events.

Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

PubMed

Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

2018-04-01

Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak: literature review (2009-2013) of the methodology used for EID communication analysis.

PubMed

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Stolero, Nathan; Mordini, Emilio; Billingsley, Matthew; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2015-04-01

This year alone has seen outbreaks of epidemics such as Ebola, Chikungunya, and many other emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). We must look to the responses of recent outbreaks to help guide our strategies in current and future outbreaks or we risk repeating the same mistakes. The objective of this paper was to conduct a systematic literature review of the methodology used by studies that examined EID communication during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outbreak through different communication channels or by analyzing contents and strategies. This was a systematic review of the literature (n=61) studying risk communication strategies of H1N1 influenza, published between 2009 and 2013, and retrieved from searches of computerized databases, hand searches, and authoritative texts by use of specific search criteria. Searches were followed by review, categorization, and mixed qualitative and quantitative content analysis. Of 41 articles that used quantitative methods, most used surveys (n=35); some employed content analyses (n=4) and controlled trials (n=2). The 16 articles that employed qualitative methods relied on content analyses (n=10), semi-structured interviews (n=2) and focus groups (n=4). Four more articles used mixed-methods or nonstandard methods. Seven different topic categories were found: risk perception and effects on behaviors, framing the risk in the media, public concerns, trust, optimistic bias, uncertainty, and evaluating risk communication. Up until 2013, studies tended to be descriptive and quantitative rather than discursive and qualitative and to focus on the role of the media as representing information and not as a medium for actual communication with the public. Several studies from 2012, and increasingly more in 2013, addressed issues of discourse and framing and the complexity of risk communication with the public. Formative evaluations that use recommendations from past research when designing communication campaigns from the first stages of crises are recommended. Research should employ diverse triangulation processes based on representatives from different stakeholders. Further studies should address the potential offered by social media to create dialogue with individuals and the public at large.

What are we missing? Risk behaviors among Arab-American adolescents and emerging adults.

PubMed

Munro-Kramer, Michelle L; Fava, Nicole M; Saftner, Melissa A; Darling-Fisher, Cynthia S; Tate, Nutrena H; Stoddard, Sarah A; Martyn, Kristy K

2016-09-01

Research on Arab-Americans as a distinct ethnic group is limited, especially when considering the health of Arab-American youth. This study describes health risk (substance use, violence); health promotive behaviors (hope, spirituality); and sexual activity (oral, vaginal, anal sex) of Arab-American adolescents and emerging adults (aged 15-23) within their life context, as well as the association between these behaviors. A secondary analysis of data on a subset of Arab-American participants obtained from a randomized-control trial was utilized to conduct mixed methods analyses. Qualitative analyses completed on the open-ended questions used the constant comparative method for a subsample (n = 24) of participants. Descriptive quantitative analyses of survey data utilized bivariate analyses and stepwise logistic regression to explore the relation between risk behaviors and sexual activity among the full sample (n = 57). Qualitative analyses revealed two groups of participants: (a) multiple risk behaviors and negative life-events, and (b) minimal risk behaviors and positive life-events. Quantitative analyses indicated older youth, smokers, and those with higher hope pathways were more likely to report vaginal sex. The unique cultural and social contexts of Arab-American youth provide a framework for recommendations for the prevention of risk behaviors. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

What are we missing? Risk behaviors among Arab-American adolescents and emerging adults

PubMed Central

Munro-Kramer, Michelle L.; Fava, Nicole M.; Saftner, Melissa A.; Darling-Fisher, Cynthia S.; Tate, Nutrena H.; Stoddard, Sarah A.; Martyn, Kristy K.

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Research on Arab-Americans as a distinct ethnic group is limited, especially when considering the health of Arab-American youth. This study describes health risk (substance use, violence); health promotive behaviors (hope, spirituality); and sexual activity (oral, vaginal, anal sex) of Arab-American adolescents and emerging adults (15-23 years old) within their life context, as well as the association between these behaviors. Methods A secondary analysis of data on a subset of Arab-American participants obtained from a randomized control trial were utilized to conduct mixed methods analyses. Qualitative analyses completed on the open-ended questions used the constant comparative method for a subsample (n=24) of participants. Descriptive quantitative analyses of survey data utilized bivariate analyses and stepwise logistic regression to explore the relation between risk behaviors and sexual activity among the full sample (n=57). Conclusions Qualitative analyses revealed two groups of participants: (a) multiple risk behaviors and negative life events, and (b) minimal risk behaviors and positive life events. Quantitative analyses indicated older youth, smokers, and those with higher hope pathways were more likely to report vaginal sex. Implications for Practice The unique cultural and social contexts of Arab-American youth provide a framework for recommendations for the prevention of risk behaviors. PMID:26990394

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Anthropometric and quantitative EMG status of femoral quadriceps before and after conventional kinesitherapy with and without magnetotherapy.

PubMed

Graberski Matasović, M; Matasović, T; Markovac, Z

1997-06-01

The frequency of femoral quadriceps muscle hypotrophy has become a significant therapeutic problem. Efforts are being made to improve the standard scheme of kinesitherapeutic treatment by using additional more effective therapeutic methods. Beside kinesitherapy, the authors have used magnetotherapy in 30 of the 60 patients. The total of 60 patients, both sexes, similar age groups and intensity of hypotrophy, were included in the study. They were divided into groups A and B, the experimental and the control one (30 patients each). The treatment was scheduled for the usual 5-6 weeks. Electromyographic quantitative analysis was used to check-up the treatment results achieved after 5 and 6 weeks of treatment period. Analysis of results has confirmed the assumption that magnetotherapy may yield better and faster treatment results, disappearance of pain and decreased risk of complications. The same results were obtained in the experimental group, only one week earlier than in the control group. The EMG quantitative analysis has not proved sufficiently reliable and objective method in the assessment of real condition of the muscle and effects of treatment.

The priority group index: a proposed new method incorporating high risk and population burden to identify target populations for public health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Bo; Cohen, Joanna E; OʼConnor, Shawn

2014-01-01

Selection of priority groups is important for health interventions. However, no quantitative method has been developed. To develop a quantitative method to support the process of selecting priority groups for public health interventions based on both high risk and population health burden. Secondary data analysis of the 2010 Canadian Community Health Survey. Canadian population. Survey respondents. We identified priority groups for 3 diseases: heart disease, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Three measures--prevalence, population counts, and adjusted odds ratios (OR)--were calculated for subpopulations (sociodemographic characteristics and other risk factors). A Priority Group Index (PGI) was calculated by summing the rank scores of these 3 measures. Of the 30 priority groups identified by the PGI (10 for each of the 3 disease outcomes), 7 were identified on the basis of high prevalence only, 5 based on population count only, 3 based on high OR only, and the remainder based on combinations of these. The identified priority groups were all in line with the literature as risk factors for the 3 diseases, such as elderly people for heart disease and stroke and those with low income for chronic lower respiratory diseases. The PGI was thus able to balance both high risk and population burden approaches in selecting priority groups, and thus it would address health inequities as well as disease burden in the overall population. The PGI is a quantitative method to select priority groups for public health interventions; it has the potential to enhance the effective use of limited public resources.

Abortion and mental health: quantitative synthesis and analysis of research published 1995-2009.

PubMed

Coleman, Priscilla K

2011-09-01

Given the methodological limitations of recently published qualitative reviews of abortion and mental health, a quantitative synthesis was deemed necessary to represent more accurately the published literature and to provide clarity to clinicians. To measure the association between abortion and indicators of adverse mental health, with subgroup effects calculated based on comparison groups (no abortion, unintended pregnancy delivered, pregnancy delivered) and particular outcomes. A secondary objective was to calculate population-attributable risk (PAR) statistics for each outcome. After the application of methodologically based selection criteria and extraction rules to minimise bias, the sample comprised 22 studies, 36 measures of effect and 877 181 participants (163 831 experienced an abortion). Random effects pooled odds ratios were computed using adjusted odds ratios from the original studies and PAR statistics were derived from the pooled odds ratios. Women who had undergone an abortion experienced an 81% increased risk of mental health problems, and nearly 10% of the incidence of mental health problems was shown to be attributable to abortion. The strongest subgroup estimates of increased risk occurred when abortion was compared with term pregnancy and when the outcomes pertained to substance use and suicidal behaviour. This review offers the largest quantitative estimate of mental health risks associated with abortion available in the world literature. Calling into question the conclusions from traditional reviews, the results revealed a moderate to highly increased risk of mental health problems after abortion. Consistent with the tenets of evidence-based medicine, this information should inform the delivery of abortion services.

Health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the source water and drinking water of China: Quantitative analysis based on published monitoring data.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Xu-Xiang; Cheng, Shu-Pei

2011-12-01

A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GUIDOS: tools for the assessment of pattern, connectivity, and fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Peter

2013-04-01

Pattern, connectivity, and fragmentation can be considered as pillars for a quantitative analysis of digital landscape images. The free software toolbox GUIDOS (http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download/software/guidos) includes a variety of dedicated methodologies for the quantitative assessment of these features. Amongst others, Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) is used for an intuitive description of image pattern structures and the automatic detection of connectivity pathways. GUIDOS includes tools for the detection and quantitative assessment of key nodes and links as well as to define connectedness in raster images and to setup appropriate input files for an enhanced network analysis using Conefor Sensinode. Finally, fragmentation is usually defined from a species point of view but a generic and quantifiable indicator is needed to measure fragmentation and its changes. Some preliminary results for different conceptual approaches will be shown for a sample dataset. Complemented by pre- and post-processing routines and a complete GIS environment the portable GUIDOS Toolbox may facilitate a holistic assessment in risk assessment studies, landscape planning, and conservation/restoration policies. Alternatively, individual analysis components may contribute to or enhance studies conducted with other software packages in landscape ecology.

Ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

DOEpatents

Benner, W Henry [Danville, CA; Krauss, Ronald M [Berkeley, CA; Blanche, Patricia J [Berkeley, CA

2007-08-21

A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

Landslide risk models for decision making.

PubMed

Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

2009-11-01

This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

Fruit and vegetable intake and prostate cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Meng, Hongzhou; Hu, Wenyi; Chen, Zhaodian; Shen, Yuehong

2014-06-01

Recent reports have examined the effect of fruit and vegetable intake on the risk of prostate cancer, but the results are inconsistent. A meta-analysis of prospective studies was conducted to arrive at quantitative conclusions about the contribution of vegetable and fruit intake to the incidence of prostate cancer. A comprehensive, systematic search of medical literature published up to June 2012 was performed to identify relevant studies. Separate meta-analyses were conducted for fruit and vegetable consumption. The presence of publication bias was assessed using Egger and Begg tests. In total, 16 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The combined adjusted relative risk comparing highest with lowest categories showed that there was no association between vegetable and fruit consumption and prostate cancer incidence. The pooled relative risk was 0.97 (95%CI 0.93, 1.01) for vegetables and 1.02 (95%CI 0.98, 1.07) for fruit. There is no heterogeneity between the studies. No publication bias was detected. This meta-analysis suggests that total fruit or vegetable consumption may not exert a protective role in the risk of prostate cancer. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Inter-model comparison of the landscape determinants of vector-borne disease: implications for epidemiological and entomological risk modeling.

PubMed

Lorenz, Alyson; Dhingra, Radhika; Chang, Howard H; Bisanzio, Donal; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2014-01-01

Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.

Agency Problems and Airport Security: Quantitative and Qualitative Evidence on the Impact of Security Training.

PubMed

de Gramatica, Martina; Massacci, Fabio; Shim, Woohyun; Turhan, Uğur; Williams, Julian

2017-02-01

We analyze the issue of agency costs in aviation security by combining results from a quantitative economic model with a qualitative study based on semi-structured interviews. Our model extends previous principal-agent models by combining the traditional fixed and varying monetary responses to physical and cognitive effort with nonmonetary welfare and potentially transferable value of employees' own human capital. To provide empirical evidence for the tradeoffs identified in the quantitative model, we have undertaken an extensive interview process with regulators, airport managers, security personnel, and those tasked with training security personnel from an airport operating in a relatively high-risk state, Turkey. Our results indicate that the effectiveness of additional training depends on the mix of "transferable skills" and "emotional" buy-in of the security agents. Principals need to identify on which side of a critical tipping point their agents are to ensure that additional training, with attached expectations of the burden of work, aligns the incentives of employees with the principals' own objectives. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Selected considerations of implementation of the GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cwiklak, Janusz; Fellner, Andrzej; Fellner, Radoslaw; Jafernik, Henryk; Sledzinski, Janusz

2014-05-01

The article describes analysis of the safety and risk for the implementation of precise approach procedures (Localizer Performance and Vertical Guidance - LPV) with GNSS sensor at airports in Warsaw and Katowice. There were used some techniques of the identification of threats (inducing controlled flight into terrain, landing accident, mid-air collision) and evaluations methods based on Fault Tree Analysis, probability of the risk, safety risk evaluation matrix and Functional Hazard Assesment. Also safety goals were determined. Research led to determine probabilities of appearing of threats, as well as allow compare them with regard to the ILS. As a result of conducting the Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA), there were defined requirements essential to reach the required level of the safety. It is worth to underline, that quantitative requirements were defined using FTA.

Determining the risk of cardiovascular disease using ion mobility of lipoproteins

DOEpatents

Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

2010-05-11

A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data limitations to date. Conclusions include a brief discussion of subsequent uncertainty and risk analysis methodologies, and a commentary on present and future applications of QRA in the management of the public health risks associated with the presence of pathogenic microorganisms in the food supply.

12 CFR 217.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches Board-regulated institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from: (1...

12 CFR 324.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches FDIC-supervised institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from:(1...

Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kodama, Satoru; Fujihara, Kazuya; Ishiguro, Hajime; Horikawa, Chika; Ohara, Nobumasa; Yachi, Yoko; Tanaka, Shiro; Shimano, Hitoshi; Kato, Kiminori; Hanyu, Osamu; Sone, Hirohito

2018-01-05

Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs) of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs) for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR) of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA) in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.19). In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies). The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies). The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution.

Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kodama, Satoru; Fujihara, Kazuya; Ishiguro, Hajime; Horikawa, Chika; Ohara, Nobumasa; Yachi, Yoko; Tanaka, Shiro; Shimano, Hitoshi; Kato, Kiminori; Hanyu, Osamu; Sone, Hirohito

2018-01-01

Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs) of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs) for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR) of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA) in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.19). In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08–1.13). There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies). The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies). The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution. PMID:29093303

Transport-Related Social Exclusion amongst Older People in Rural Southwest England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shergold, Ian; Parkhurst, Graham

2012-01-01

Rural dwelling and older age are both associated with a higher risk of social exclusion, with accessibility identified as having an important facilitating role. The interactions between transport-related exclusion and older age, particularly in a rural context, are considered though analysis of quantitative and qualitative data collected from over…

CHILDREN'S CANCER RISK: AGE-RELATED DIFFERENCES IN SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR CARCINOGENESIS--TOWARD A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Some sub-populations, such as infants and children or those with weakened immune systems, are known to be particularly sensitive to the effects of certain waterborne pathogens and chemicals. The 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) require EPA to conduct research...

Principals' Leadership Behaviors as Perceived by Teachers in At-Risk Middle Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, R. Anthony

2011-01-01

A need for greater understanding of teachers' (N = 530) perceptions of the leadership behaviors of principals in Title I middle schools (n = 13) is prevalent exists. The researcher used the "Audit of Principal Effectiveness" survey to collect data. The researcher also used Hierarchical Linear Modeling as the quantitative analysis.…

A protocol for bladder cancer screening and medical surveillance among high-risk groups: The Drake Health Registry experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marsh, G.M.; Callahan, C.; Pavlock, D.

In 1986, the Drake Health Registry Study initiated bladder cancer screening for 366 persons at high risk because of occupational exposure to beta-naphthylamine. The Drake Health Registry Study screening protocol consists of urinalysis, Papanicolaou cytology, and quantitative fluorescence image analysis. A positive screening test qualifies participants for a full diagnostic evaluation. The screening protocol has been modified during the first 3 years of the program's existence to address unexpected patterns of test results and to incorporate advances in screening technology. The current protocol, which has a two-tiered screening schedule, has been utilized successfully for 15 months. Of the 26 positivemore » results to date most have been based on abnormal Papanicolaou cytology and/or quantitative fluorescence image analysis. Bladder abnormalities were cited among most of the 18 study members who underwent diagnostic evaluation, including chronic cystitis, inflammation, hyperplasia, and dysplasia. We conclude that the screening program is detecting very early changes in a relatively young cohort and that these persons must be monitored over a number of years to ensure adequate medical surveillance.« less

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

Enhanced recovery pathways in abdominal gynecologic surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Groot, Jeanny J A; Ament, Stephanie M C; Maessen, José M C; Dejong, Cornelis H C; Kleijnen, Jos M P; Slangen, Brigitte F M

2016-04-01

Enhanced recovery pathways have been widely accepted and implemented for different types of surgery. Their overall effect in abdominal gynecologic surgery is still underdetermined. A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to provide an overview of current evidence and to examine their effect on postoperative outcomes in women undergoing open gynecologic surgery. Searches were conducted using Embase, Medline, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library up to 27 June 2014. Reference lists were screened to identify additional studies. Studies were included if at least four individual items of an enhanced recovery pathway were described. Outcomes included length of hospital stay, complication rates, readmissions, and mortality. Quantitative analysis was limited to comparative studies. Effect sizes were presented as relative risks or as mean differences (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Thirty-one records, involving 16 observational studies, were included. Diversity in reported elements within studies was observed. Preoperative education, early oral intake, and early mobilization were included in all pathways. Five studies, with a high risk of bias, were eligible for quantitative analysis. Enhanced recovery pathways reduced primary (MD -1.57 days, 95% CI CI -2.94 to -0.20) and total (MD -3.05 days, 95% CI -4.87 to -1.23) length of hospital stay compared with traditional perioperative care, without an increase in complications, mortality or readmission rates. The available evidence based on a broad range of non-randomized studies at high risk of bias suggests that enhanced recovery pathways may reduce length of postoperative hospital stay in abdominal gynecologic surgery. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

PubMed Central

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2009-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population

PubMed Central

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Objective: Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic’s Food and Drug Administration–approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Methods: Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR’s BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density–based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. Results: The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Conclusions: Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase. PMID:29511356

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population.

PubMed

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic's Food and Drug Administration-approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR's BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density-based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase.

Cancer imaging phenomics toolkit: quantitative imaging analytics for precision diagnostics and predictive modeling of clinical outcome.

PubMed

Davatzikos, Christos; Rathore, Saima; Bakas, Spyridon; Pati, Sarthak; Bergman, Mark; Kalarot, Ratheesh; Sridharan, Patmaa; Gastounioti, Aimilia; Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Akbari, Hamed; Tunc, Birkan; Doshi, Jimit; Parker, Drew; Hsieh, Michael; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Li, Hongming; Ou, Yangming; Doot, Robert K; Bilello, Michel; Fan, Yong; Shinohara, Russell T; Yushkevich, Paul; Verma, Ragini; Kontos, Despina

2018-01-01

The growth of multiparametric imaging protocols has paved the way for quantitative imaging phenotypes that predict treatment response and clinical outcome, reflect underlying cancer molecular characteristics and spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and can guide personalized treatment planning. This growth has underlined the need for efficient quantitative analytics to derive high-dimensional imaging signatures of diagnostic and predictive value in this emerging era of integrated precision diagnostics. This paper presents cancer imaging phenomics toolkit (CaPTk), a new and dynamically growing software platform for analysis of radiographic images of cancer, currently focusing on brain, breast, and lung cancer. CaPTk leverages the value of quantitative imaging analytics along with machine learning to derive phenotypic imaging signatures, based on two-level functionality. First, image analysis algorithms are used to extract comprehensive panels of diverse and complementary features, such as multiparametric intensity histogram distributions, texture, shape, kinetics, connectomics, and spatial patterns. At the second level, these quantitative imaging signatures are fed into multivariate machine learning models to produce diagnostic, prognostic, and predictive biomarkers. Results from clinical studies in three areas are shown: (i) computational neuro-oncology of brain gliomas for precision diagnostics, prediction of outcome, and treatment planning; (ii) prediction of treatment response for breast and lung cancer, and (iii) risk assessment for breast cancer.

Coffee consumption and risk of fractures: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Huifang; Yao, Ke; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhou, Jun; Wu, Taixiang

2012-01-01

Introduction Recent studies have indicated higher risk of fractures among coffee drinkers. To quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and the risk of fractures, we conducted this meta-analysis. Material and methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prospective studies reporting the risk of fractures with coffee consumption. Quality of included studies was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa scale. We conducted a meta-analysis and a cumulative meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) for an increment of one cup of coffee per day, and explored the potential dose-response relationship. Sensitivity analysis was performed where statistical heterogeneity existed. Results We included 10 prospective studies covering 214,059 participants and 9,597 cases. There was overall 3.5% higher fracture risk for an increment of one cup of coffee per day (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052). Pooled RRs were 1.049 (95% CI: 1.022-1.077) for women and 0.910 (95% CI: 0.873-0.949) for men. Among women, RR was 1.055 (95% CI: 0.999-1.114) for younger participants, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.016-1.080) for older ones. Cumulative meta-analysis indicated that risk estimates reached a stabilization level (RR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.019-1.052), and it revealed a positive dose-response relationship between coffee consumption and risk of fractures either for men and women combined or women specifically. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests an overall harm of coffee intake in increasing the risk of fractures, especially for women. But current data are insufficient to reach a convincing conclusion and further research needs to be conducted. PMID:23185185

Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

2017-09-01

Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Precision of information, sensational information, and self-efficacy information as message-level variables affecting risk perceptions.

PubMed

Dahlstrom, Michael F; Dudo, Anthony; Brossard, Dominique

2012-01-01

Studies that investigate how the mass media cover risk issues often assume that certain characteristics of content are related to specific risk perceptions and behavioral intentions. However, these relationships have seldom been empirically assessed. This study tests the influence of three message-level media variables--risk precision information, sensational information, and self-efficacy information--on perceptions of risk, individual worry, and behavioral intentions toward a pervasive health risk. Results suggest that more precise risk information leads to increased risk perceptions and that the effect of sensational information is moderated by risk precision information. Greater self-efficacy information is associated with greater intention to change behavior, but none of the variables influence individual worry. The results provide a quantitative understanding of how specific characteristics of informational media content can influence individuals' responses to health threats of a global and uncertain nature. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

A meta-analysis including dose-response relationship between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiao; Ji, Alin; Zhu, Yi; Liang, Zhen; Wu, Jian; Li, Shiqi; Meng, Shuai; Zheng, Xiangyi; Xie, Liping

2015-01-01

A meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between night shift work and the risk of colorectal cancer. We searched for publications up to March 2015 using PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases, and the references of the retrieved articles and relevant reviews were also checked. OR and 95% CI were used to assess the degree of the correlation between night shift work and risk of colorectal cancer via fixed- or random-effect models. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed as well. The pooled OR estimates of the included studies illustrated that night shift work was correlated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.318, 95% CI 1.121–1.551). No evidence of publication bias was detected. In the dose-response analysis, the rate of colorectal cancer increased by 11% for every 5 years increased in night shift work (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03–1.20). In conclusion, this meta-analysis indicated that night shift work was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. Further researches should be conducted to confirm our findings and clarify the potential biological mechanisms. PMID:26208480

An Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) to Increase Safety and Security Levels in Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, M.; Rahman, Khalil Ur; Hassan, Mehmood Ul

2013-12-01

The main idea of this research is to develop an Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) based on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA). The article highlights the essential features and functions of ORMS. The basic models and modules such as, Reliability Data Update Model (RDUM), running time update, redundant system unavailability update, Engineered Safety Features (ESF) unavailability update and general system update have been described in this study. ORMS not only provides quantitative analysis but also highlights qualitative aspects of risk measures. ORMS is capable of automatically updating the online risk models and reliability parameters of equipment. ORMS can support in the decision making process of operators and managers in Nuclear Power Plants.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latimer, John A.

2009-01-01

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF WATERBORNE INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK USING THE HYDRAULIC MODEL AND OUTPATIENT DATA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amano, Ayako; Sakuma, Taisuke; Kazama, So

This study evaluated waterborne infectious diseases risk and incidence rate around Phonm Penh in Cambodia. We use the hydraulic flood simulation, coliform bacterium diffusion model, dose-response model and outpatient data for quantitative analysis. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The incidence (incidence rate) of diarrhea as water borne diseases risk is 0.14 million people (9%) in the inundation area. 2. The residents in the inundation area are exposed up to 4 times as high risk as daily mean calculated by the integrated model combined in the regional scale. 3.The infectious disease risk due to floods and inundation indicated is effective as an element to explain the risk. The scenario explains 34% number of patient estimated by the outpatient data.

Quantitative cancer risk assessment for occupational exposures to asphalt fumes during built-up roofing asphalt (BURA) operations.

PubMed

Rhomberg, Lorenz R; Mayfield, David B; Goodman, Julie E; Butler, Eric L; Nascarella, Marc A; Williams, Daniel R

2015-01-01

The International Agency for Research on Cancer qualitatively characterized occupational exposure to oxidized bitumen emissions during roofing as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). We examine chemistry, exposure, epidemiology and animal toxicity data to explore quantitative risks for roofing workers applying built-up roofing asphalt (BURA). Epidemiology studies do not consistently report elevated risks, and generally do not have sufficient exposure information or adequately control for confounders, precluding their use for dose-response analysis. Dermal carcinogenicity bioassays using mice report increased tumor incidence with single high doses. In order to quantify potential cancer risks, we develop time-to-tumor model methods [consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response analysis and mixtures guidelines] using the dose-time-response shape of concurrent exposures to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) as concurrent controls (which had several exposure levels) to infer presumed parallel dose-time-response curves for BURA-fume condensate. We compare EPA relative potency factor approaches, based on observed relative potency of BURA to B[a]P in similar experiments, and direct observation of the inferred BURA dose-time-response (scaled to humans) as means for characterizing a dermal unit risk factor. We apply similar approaches to limited data on asphalt-fume inhalation and respiratory cancers in rats. We also develop a method for adjusting potency estimates for asphalts that vary in composition using measured fluorescence. Overall, the various methods indicate that cancer risks to roofers from both dermal and inhalation exposure to BURA are within a range typically deemed acceptable within regulatory frameworks. The approaches developed may be useful in assessing carcinogenic potency of other complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic compounds.

Leisure-time physical activity and incident metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Dongdong; Liu, Xuejiao; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Wang, Bingyuan; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Yin, Lei; Zhao, Jingzhi; Shi, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Ming; Hu, Dongsheng

2017-10-01

Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) has been suggested to reduce risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, a quantitative comprehensive assessment of the dose-response association between LTPA and incident MetS has not been reported. We performed a meta-analysis of studies assessing the risk of MetS with LTPA. MEDLINE via PubMed and EMBase databases were searched for relevant articles published up to March 13, 2017. Random-effects models were used to estimate the summary relative risk (RR) of MetS with LTPA. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. We identified 16 articles (18 studies including 76,699 participants and 13,871 cases of MetS). We found a negative linear association between LTPA and incident MetS, with a reduction of 8% in MetS risk per 10 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) h/week increment. According to the restricted cubic splines model, risk of MetS was reduced 10% with LTPA performed according to the basic guideline-recommended level of 150min of moderate PA (MPA) per week (10METh/week) versus inactivity (RR=0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94). It was reduced 20% and 53% with LTPA at twice (20METh/week) and seven times (70METh/week) the basic recommended level (RR=0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.88 and 0.47, 95% CI 0.34-0.64, respectively). Our findings provide quantitative data suggesting that any amount of LTPA is better than none and that LTPA substantially exceeding the current LTPA guidelines is associated with an additional reduction in MetS risk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Consumption of Yogurt and the Incident Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Nine Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-03-22

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I² = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics.

Consumption of Yogurt and the Incident Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Nine Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Wu, Lei; Sun, Dali

2017-01-01

Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have evaluated the association of dairy consumption and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the findings were inconsistent. No quantitative analysis has specifically assessed the effect of yogurt intake on the incident risk of CVD. We searched the PubMed and the Embase databases from inception to 10 January 2017. A generic inverse-variance method was used to pool the fully-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with a random-effects model. A generalized least squares trend estimation model was used to calculate the specific slopes in the dose-response analysis. The present systematic review and meta-analysis identified nine prospective cohort articles involving a total of 291,236 participants. Compared with the lowest category, highest category of yogurt consumption was not significantly related with the incident risk of CVD, and the RR (95% CI) was 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) with an evidence of significant heterogeneity (I2 = 52%). However, intake of ≥200 g/day yogurt was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD in the subgroup analysis. There was a trend that a higher level of yogurt consumption was associated with a lower incident risk of CVD in the dose-response analysis. A daily dose of ≥200 g yogurt intake might be associated with a lower incident risk of CVD. Further cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are still demanded to establish and confirm the observed association in populations with different characteristics. PMID:28327514

Preoperative Cerebral Oxygen Extraction Fraction Imaging Generated from 7T MR Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping Predicts Development of Cerebral Hyperperfusion following Carotid Endarterectomy.

PubMed

Nomura, J-I; Uwano, I; Sasaki, M; Kudo, K; Yamashita, F; Ito, K; Fujiwara, S; Kobayashi, M; Ogasawara, K

2017-12-01

Preoperative hemodynamic impairment in the affected cerebral hemisphere is associated with the development of cerebral hyperperfusion following carotid endarterectomy. Cerebral oxygen extraction fraction images generated from 7T MR quantitative susceptibility mapping correlate with oxygen extraction fraction images on positron-emission tomography. The present study aimed to determine whether preoperative oxygen extraction fraction imaging generated from 7T MR quantitative susceptibility mapping could identify patients at risk for cerebral hyperperfusion following carotid endarterectomy. Seventy-seven patients with unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis (≥70%) underwent preoperative 3D T2*-weighted imaging using a multiple dipole-inversion algorithm with a 7T MR imager. Quantitative susceptibility mapping images were then obtained, and oxygen extraction fraction maps were generated. Quantitative brain perfusion single-photon emission CT was also performed before and immediately after carotid endarterectomy. ROIs were automatically placed in the bilateral middle cerebral artery territories in all images using a 3D stereotactic ROI template, and affected-to-contralateral ratios in the ROIs were calculated on quantitative susceptibility mapping-oxygen extraction fraction images. Ten patients (13%) showed post-carotid endarterectomy hyperperfusion (cerebral blood flow increases of ≥100% compared with preoperative values in the ROIs on brain perfusion SPECT). Multivariate analysis showed that a high quantitative susceptibility mapping-oxygen extraction fraction ratio was significantly associated with the development of post-carotid endarterectomy hyperperfusion (95% confidence interval, 33.5-249.7; P = .002). Sensitivity, specificity, and positive- and negative-predictive values of the quantitative susceptibility mapping-oxygen extraction fraction ratio for the prediction of the development of post-carotid endarterectomy hyperperfusion were 90%, 84%, 45%, and 98%, respectively. Preoperative oxygen extraction fraction imaging generated from 7T MR quantitative susceptibility mapping identifies patients at risk for cerebral hyperperfusion following carotid endarterectomy. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment for center pivot irrigation of dairy wastewaters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the western United States where livestock wastewaters are commonly land applied, there are concerns over individuals being exposed to airborne pathogens. In response, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate infectious risks from inhaling pathogens aerosolized dur...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

QUANTITATIVE CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY USING SHORT-TERM GENETIC BIOASSAYS: THE COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative risk assessment is fraught with many uncertainties. The validity of the assumptions underlying the methods employed are often difficult to test or validate. Cancer risk assessment has generally employed either human epidemiological data from relatively high occupatio...

Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be altered in order to create a possibility for innovative solutions. If the state of the art in technical perspectives allows constructions with limited additional risk, multiple-use structures are an option in risk management. The present and future land-use pressure also intensifies the economic interest in finding and accepting such measures.

75 FR 4067 - Release of Draft Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

... for public comment a second draft assessment document titled, Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for... quantitative analyses that are being conducted as part of the review of the national ambient air quality...-Focused Visibility Assessment--Second External Review Draft and Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for...

75 FR 39252 - Release of Final Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-08

..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter and Particulate Matter Urban-Focused Visibility Assessment. These two documents describe the quantitative analyses that have been conducted as part of the..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter, please contact Dr. Zachary Pekar, Office of Air...

EVALUATING TOOLS AND MODELS USED FOR QUANTITATIVE EXTRAPOLATION OF IN VITRO TO IN VIVO DATA FOR NEUROTOXICANTS*

EPA Science Inventory

There are a number of risk management decisions, which range from prioritization for testing to quantitative risk assessments. The utility of in vitro studies in these decisions depends on how well the results of such data can be qualitatively and quantitatively extrapolated to i...

Predicting MCI outcome with clinically available MRI and CSF biomarkers

PubMed Central

Heister, D.; Brewer, J.B.; Magda, S.; Blennow, K.

2011-01-01

Objective: To determine the ability of clinically available volumetric MRI (vMRI) and CSF biomarkers, alone or in combination with a quantitative learning measure, to predict conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We stratified 192 MCI participants into positive and negative risk groups on the basis of 1) degree of learning impairment on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; 2) medial temporal atrophy, quantified from Food and Drug Administration–approved software for automated vMRI analysis; and 3) CSF biomarker levels. We also stratified participants based on combinations of risk factors. We computed Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for age, to assess 3-year risk of converting to AD as a function of risk group and used Kaplan-Meier analyses to determine median survival times. Results: When risk factors were examined separately, individuals testing positive showed significantly higher risk of converting to AD than individuals testing negative (hazard ratios [HR] 1.8–4.1). The joint presence of any 2 risk factors substantially increased risk, with the combination of greater learning impairment and increased atrophy associated with highest risk (HR 29.0): 85% of patients with both risk factors converted to AD within 3 years, vs 5% of those with neither. The presence of medial temporal atrophy was associated with shortest median dementia-free survival (15 months). Conclusions: Incorporating quantitative assessment of learning ability along with vMRI or CSF biomarkers in the clinical workup of MCI can provide critical information on risk of imminent conversion to AD. PMID:21998317

Developing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Storage CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duncan, Ian

2014-08-31

The operational risks for CCS projects include: risks of capturing, compressing, transporting and injecting CO₂; risks of well blowouts; risk that CO 2 will leak into shallow aquifers and contaminate potable water; and risk that sequestered CO 2 will leak into the atmosphere. This report examines these risks by using information on the risks associated with analogue activities such as CO 2 based enhanced oil recovery (CO 2-EOR), natural gas storage and acid gas disposal. We have developed a new analysis of pipeline risk based on Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian theory probabilities may describe states of partial knowledge, even perhapsmore » those related to non-repeatable events. The Bayesian approach enables both utilizing existing data and at the same time having the capability to adsorb new information thus to lower uncertainty in our understanding of complex systems. Incident rates for both natural gas and CO 2 pipelines have been widely used in papers and reports on risk of CO 2 pipelines as proxies for the individual risk created by such pipelines. Published risk studies of CO 2 pipelines suggest that the individual risk associated with CO2 pipelines is between 10 -3 and 10 -4, which reflects risk levels approaching those of mountain climbing, which many would find unacceptably high. This report concludes, based on a careful analysis of natural gas pipeline failures, suggests that the individual risk of CO 2 pipelines is likely in the range of 10-6 to 10-7, a risk range considered in the acceptable to negligible range in most countries. If, as is commonly thought, pipelines represent the highest risk component of CCS outside of the capture plant, then this conclusion suggests that most (if not all) previous quantitative- risk assessments of components of CCS may be orders of magnitude to high. The potential lethality of unexpected CO 2 releases from pipelines or wells are arguably the highest risk aspects of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), carbon capture, and storage (CCS). Assertions in the CCS literature, that CO 2 levels of 10% for ten minutes, or 20 to 30% for a few minutes are lethal to humans, are not supported by the available evidence. The results of published experiments with animals exposed to CO 2, from mice to monkeys, at both normal and depleted oxygen levels, suggest that lethal levels of CO 2 toxicity are in the range 50 to 60%. These experiments demonstrate that CO 2 does not kill by asphyxia, but rather is toxic at high concentrations. It is concluded that quantitative risk assessments of CCS have overestimated the risk of fatalities by using values of lethality a factor two to six lower than the values estimated in this paper. In many dispersion models of CO 2 releases from pipelines, no fatalities would be predicted if appropriate levels of lethality for CO 2 had been used in the analysis.« less

Evaluation of New Zealand’s High-Seas Bottom Trawl Closures Using Predictive Habitat Models and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Penney, Andrew J.; Guinotte, John M.

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas. PMID:24358162

Evaluation of New Zealand's high-seas bottom trawl closures using predictive habitat models and quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Penney, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

Relating safety, productivity and company type for motor-manual logging operations in the Italian Alps.

PubMed

Montorselli, Niccolò Brachetti; Lombardini, Carolina; Magagnotti, Natascia; Marchi, Enrico; Neri, Francesco; Picchi, Gianni; Spinelli, Raffaele

2010-11-01

The study compared the performance of four different logging crews with respect to productivity, organization and safety. To this purpose, the authors developed a data collection method capable of providing a quantitative analysis of risk-taking behavior. Four crews were tested under the same working conditions, representative of close-to-nature alpine forestry. Motor-manual working methods were applied, since these methods are still prevalent in the specific study area, despite the growing popularity of mechanical processors. Crews from public companies showed a significantly lower frequency of risk-taking behavior. The best safety performance was offered by the only (public) crew that had been administered formal safety training. The study seems to deny the common prejudice that safety practice is inversely proportional to productivity. Instead, productivity is increased by introducing more efficient working methods and equipment. The quantitative analysis of risk-taking behavior developed in this study can be applied to a number of industrial fields besides forestry. Characterizing risk-taking behavior for a given case may eventually lead to the development of custom-made training programmes, which may address problem areas while avoiding that the message is weakened by the inclusion of redundant information. In the specific case of logging crews in the central Alps, the study suggests that current training courses may be weak on ergonomics, and advocates a staged training programme, focusing first on accident reduction and then expanding to the prevention of chronic illness. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Units related to radiation exposure and radioactivity in mass media: the Fukushima case study in Europe and Russia.

PubMed

Perko, T; Tomkiv, Y; Oughton, D H; Cantone, M C; Gallego, E; Prezelj, I; Byrkina, E

2015-04-01

Using an analysis of the way European newspapers covered the Fukushima nuclear accident, this article explores how the mass media transmit information about radiation risks from experts to the general public. The study applied a media content analysis method on a total of 1340 articles from 12 leading newspapers in 6 countries: Belgium (N = 260), Italy (N = 270), Norway (N = 133), Russia (N = 172), Slovenia (N = 190) and Spain (N = 315). All articles analysed were selected as being directly or indirectly related to the Fukushima accident by containing the word 'nuclear' and/or 'Fukushima' and were published between the 11th March and the 11th May 2011. The data presented here focus specifically on a cross-cultural comparison of the way the media use quantitative units. Results suggest that although experts are accustomed to communicating about radiological risks in technical language, often using quantitative units to describe the risks, mass media do not tend to use these units in their reporting. Although the study found a large variation in the measurement units used in different countries, it appeared that journalists in all the analysed countries preferred to describe radioactivity by comparing different radiation exposures, rather than reporting the actual measured units. The paper concludes with some practical guidelines for sound public communication about radiation risks. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

PubMed

Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

2011-07-01

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormetti, Giacomo; Cisana, Enrica; Montagna, Guido; Nicrosini, Oreste

2007-03-01

Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modelling the power-law tails of the returns distribution in terms of a Student- t distribution. Non-Gaussian closed-form solutions for value-at-risk and expected shortfall are obtained and standard formulae known in the literature under the normality assumption are recovered as a special case. The implications of the approach for risk management are demonstrated through an empirical analysis of financial time series from the Italian stock market and in comparison with the results of the most widely used procedures of quantitative finance. Particular attention is paid to quantify the size of the errors affecting the market risk measures obtained according to different methodologies, by employing a bootstrap technique.

Pink Ribbons and Red Dresses: A Mixed Methods Content Analysis of Media Coverage of Breast Cancer and Heart Disease.

PubMed

Champion, Claudine; Berry, Tanya R; Kingsley, Bethan; Spence, John C

2016-10-01

This research examined media coverage of breast cancer (n = 145) and heart disease and stroke (n = 39) news articles, videos, advertisements, and images in a local Canadian context through quantitative and thematic content analyses. Quantitative analysis revealed significant differences between coverage of the diseases in placement, survivors as a source of information, health agency, human interest stories, citation of a research study, the inclusion of risk statistics, discussion of preventative behaviors, and tone used. The thematic analysis revealed themes that characterized a "typical" breast cancer survivor and indicated that "good" citizens and businesses should help the cause of breast cancer. Themes for heart disease and stroke articulated individual responsibility and the ways fundraising reinforced femininity and privilege. Findings provide insight on how these diseases are framed in local Canadian media, which might impact an individual's understanding of the disease.

Dietary fiber intake reduces risk of inflammatory bowel disease: result from a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaoqin; Wu, Yili; Li, Fang; Zhang, Dongfeng

2015-09-01

Several epidemiological investigations have been conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary fiber intake and inflammatory bowel diseases, but the results are inconsistent. This meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively summarize the evidence from observational studies. PubMed, Embase, and Web of Knowledge were searched for relevant articles published up to November 2014. The combined relative risks were calculated with the fixed- or random-effects model. Dose-response relationship was assessed using restricted cubic spline model. We hypothesized that the meta-analysis could yield a summary effect, which would indicate that dietary fiber intake could decrease the risk of ulcerative colitis and Crohn disease (CD). Overall, 8 articles involving 2 cohort studies, 1 nested case-control study, and 5 case-control studies were finally included in this study. The pooled relative risks with 95% confidence intervals of ulcerative colitis and CD for the highest vs lowest categories of dietary fiber intake were 0.80 (0.64-1.00) and 0.44 (0.29-0.69), respectively. A linear dose-response relationship was found between dietary fiber and CD risk, and the risk of CD decreased by 13% (P < .05) for every 10 g/d increment in fiber intake. The results from this meta-analysis indicated that the intake of dietary fiber was significantly associated with a decreased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Temporal assessment of radiomic features on clinical mammography in a high-risk population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Lan, Li; Chan, Chun-Wai; King, Lauren M.; Tayob, Nabihah; Whitman, Gary; El-Zein, Randa; Bedrosian, Isabelle; Giger, Maryellen L.

2018-02-01

Extraction of high-dimensional quantitative data from medical images has become necessary in disease risk assessment, diagnostics and prognostics. Radiomic workflows for mammography typically involve a single medical image for each patient although medical images may exist for multiple imaging exams, especially in screening protocols. Our study takes advantage of the availability of mammograms acquired over multiple years for the prediction of cancer onset. This study included 841 images from 328 patients who developed subsequent mammographic abnormalities, which were confirmed as either cancer (n=173) or non-cancer (n=155) through diagnostic core needle biopsy. Quantitative radiomic analysis was conducted on antecedent FFDMs acquired a year or more prior to diagnostic biopsy. Analysis was limited to the breast contralateral to that in which the abnormality arose. Novel metrics were used to identify robust radiomic features. The most robust features were evaluated in the task of predicting future malignancies on a subset of 72 subjects (23 cancer cases and 49 non-cancer controls) with mammograms over multiple years. Using linear discriminant analysis, the robust radiomic features were merged into predictive signatures by: (i) using features from only the most recent contralateral mammogram, (ii) change in feature values between mammograms, and (iii) ratio of feature values over time, yielding AUCs of 0.57 (SE=0.07), 0.63 (SE=0.06), and 0.66 (SE=0.06), respectively. The AUCs for temporal radiomics (ratio) statistically differed from chance, suggesting that changes in radiomics over time may be critical for risk assessment. Overall, we found that our two-stage process of robustness assessment followed by performance evaluation served well in our investigation on the role of temporal radiomics in risk assessment.

A probabilistic QMRA of Salmonella in direct agricultural reuse of treated municipal wastewater.

PubMed

Amha, Yamrot M; Kumaraswamy, Rajkumari; Ahmad, Farrukh

2015-01-01

Developing reliable quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) procedures aids in setting recommendations on reuse applications of treated wastewater. In this study, a probabilistic QMRA to determine the risk of Salmonella infections resulting from the consumption of edible crops irrigated with treated wastewater was conducted. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to enumerate Salmonella spp. in post-disinfected samples, where they showed concentrations ranging from 90 to 1,600 cells/100 mL. The results were used to construct probabilistic exposure models for the raw consumption of three vegetables (lettuce, cabbage, and cucumber) irrigated with treated wastewater, and to estimate the disease burden using Monte Carlo analysis. The results showed elevated median disease burden, when compared with acceptable disease burden set by the World Health Organization, which is 10⁻⁶ disability-adjusted life years per person per year. Of the three vegetables considered, lettuce showed the highest risk of infection in all scenarios considered, while cucumber showed the lowest risk. The results of the Salmonella concentration obtained with qPCR were compared with the results of Escherichia coli concentration for samples taken on the same sampling dates.

Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2017-11-01

Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

[The risk of neoplastic processes transformation in cervix uteri].

PubMed

Kiseleva, V I; Krikunova, L I; Mkrtchian, L S; Liubina, L V; Beziaeva, G P; Panarina, L V; Zamuliaeva, I A

2014-01-01

There was performed a comparative analysis of quantitative load and physical status of human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 in groups of patients with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)--25 people and cervical cancer (CC)--85 people. According to the analysis there were selected criteria appropriate to a combination of adverse factors that characterized HPV- infection and at the same time estimated both quantitative load and physical status of the virus: high viral load (> 6,5 lg copies of HPV DNA per 100000 cells) in episomal form or low load (< 6,5 lg copies of HPV DNA per 100000 cells) in integrated form of the virus. According to calculations a relative chance of appearing of CC in CIN patients with unfavorable combination of factors was 7,5 times higher than in other patients.

Maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy and risk of childhood asthma: A meta-analysis of prospective studies.

PubMed

Song, Huihui; Yang, Lei; Jia, Chongqi

2017-05-01

Mounting evidence suggests that maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy may be associated with development of childhood asthma, but the results are still inconsistent. A dose-response meta-analysis was performed to quantitatively summarize evidence on the association of maternal vitamin D status during pregnancy with the risk of childhood asthma. A systematic search was conducted to identify all studies assessing the association of maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) during pregnancy with risk of childhood asthma. The fixed or random-effect model was selected based on the heterogeneity test among studies. Nonlinear dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline model. Fifteen prospective studies with 12 758 participants and 1795 cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled relative risk of childhood asthma comparing the highest versus lowest category of maternal 25(OH)D levels was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.75-1.02). For dose-response analysis, evidence of a U-shaped relationship was found between maternal 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma (P nonlinearity = 0.02), with the lowest risk at approximately 70 nmol/L of 25(OH)D. This dose-response meta-analysis suggested a U-shaped relationship between maternal blood 25(OH)D levels and risk of childhood asthma. Further studies are needed to confirm the association. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

TOXNET: Toxicology Data Network

MedlinePlus

... 4. Supporting Data for Carcinogenicity Expand II.B. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Oral Exposure II. ... of Confidence (Carcinogenicity, Oral Exposure) Expand II.C. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Inhalation Exposure II. ...

Poultry and fish intake and risk of esophageal cancer: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Jiang, Gengxi; Li, Bailing; Liao, Xiaohong; Zhong, Chongjun

2016-03-01

Mixed results regarding the association between white meat (including poultry and fish) intake and the risk of esophageal cancer (EC) have been reported. We performed a meta-analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of this association. Relevant studies were identified in MEDLINE until December 31, 2012. Summary relative risks (SRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled with a random-effects model. A total of 20 articles, including 3990 cases with EC, were included in this meta-analysis. Compared to individuals with the lowest level of fish intake, individuals with the highest fish intake were found to have reduced risk of EC (SRRs = 0.69; 95% CIs: 0.57-0.85), while poultry intake was not associated with EC (SRRs = 0.83; 95% CIs: 0.62-1.12). Total fish consumption is associated with reduced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) risk, while poultry consumption was not associated with ESCC risk. Additionally, neither poultry nor fish consumption was associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma risk. Our results suggest that fish consumption may have a potential role in EC prevention, while poultry intake has no effect. However, because the majority of data was from case-control studies, further well-designed prospective studies are warranted. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

75 FR 76982 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-10

... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...), Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460; telephone... human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects...

77 FR 20817 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-06

... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical... Deputy Director, National Center for Environmental Assessment, (mail code: 8601D), Office of Research and... program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from...

77 FR 41784 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-16

... health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that..., National Center for Environmental Assessment, (mail code: 8601P), Office of Research and Development, U.S... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...

Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

2015-04-01

The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors. The risk was calculated by multiplying the vulnerability with the spatial probability and the building values. Changes in landslide risk was assessed using the loss estimation of four different periods: (1) pre-August 2003 disaster, (2) the August 2003 event, (3) post-August 2003 to 2011 and (4) smaller frequent events occurring between the entire 1996-2011 period. One of the major findings of our work was the calculation of a significant decrease in landslide risk after the 2003 disaster compared to the pre-disaster risk period. This indicates the importance of estimating risk after a few years of a major event in order to avoid overestimation or exaggeration of future losses.

A technological approach to studying motor planning ability in children at high risk for ASD.

PubMed

Taffoni, F; Focaroli, V; Keller, F; Iverson, J M

2014-01-01

In this work we propose a new method to study the development of motor planning abilities in children and, in particular, in children at high risk for ASD. Although several modified motor signs have been found in children with ASD, no specific markers enabling the early assessment of risk have been found yet. In this work, we discuss the problem posed by objective and quantitative behavioral analysis in non-structured environment. After an initial description of the main constraints imposed by the ecological approach, a technological and methodological solution to these issues is presented. Preliminary results on 12 children are reported and briefly discussed.

Reaching Future Scientists, Consumers, & Citizens: What Do Secondary School Textbooks Say about Genomics & Its Impact on Health?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Melissa A.; Cline, Rebecca J.; Trepanier, Angela M.

2014-01-01

An understanding of how genomics information, including information about risk for common, multifactorial disease, can be used to promote personal health (personalized medicine) is becoming increasingly important for the American public. We undertook a quantitative content analysis of commonly used high school textbooks to assess how frequently…

A Quantitative Risk Analysis Framework for Evaluating and Monitoring Operational Reliability of Cloud Computing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Islam, Muhammad Faysal

2013-01-01

Cloud computing offers the advantage of on-demand, reliable and cost efficient computing solutions without the capital investment and management resources to build and maintain in-house data centers and network infrastructures. Scalability of cloud solutions enable consumers to upgrade or downsize their services as needed. In a cloud environment,…

Influences of sample interference and interference controls on quantification of enterococci fecal indicator bacteria in surface water samples by the qPCR method

EPA Science Inventory

A quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method for the detection of entercocci fecal indicator bacteria has been shown to be generally applicable for the analysis of temperate fresh (Great Lakes) and marine coastal waters and for providing risk-based determinations of wat...

A Quantitative Literature Review of the Effectiveness of Suicide Prevention Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dew, Mary Amanda; And Others

1987-01-01

Applied meta-analysis to several series of studies to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention centers. Results indicate that centers do attract a high-risk population; center clients were more likely to commit suicide than were members of the general population, and individuals who committed suicide were more likely to have been clients than were…

Recovering marbled murrelets via corvid management: a population viability analysis approach

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; R. William Henry

2010-01-01

The expansion of human activities into rural areas and natural landscapes has resulted in widespread increases in the abundance of synanthropic species that threaten rarer native species. Quantitative assessments of how much impacts need to be reduced to reach acceptable levels of risk to the affected species are rarely conducted prior to the implementation of control...

Evaluation of Commercial Cell Preparations as Sources of Calibration Standards for Real-Time qPCR Analysis of Enterococci in Recreational Waters

EPA Science Inventory

In response to the Beach Act, the U.S. EPA has developed a quantitative PCR (qPCR) method for enterococci that meets requirements for rapid, risk-based water quality assessments of recreational waters. Widespread implementation of this method will require that different laborator...

A Primer for Handling Missing Values in the Analysis of Education and Training Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gemici, Sinan; Bednarz, Alice; Lim, Patrick

2012-01-01

Quantitative research in vocational education and training (VET) is routinely affected by missing or incomplete information. However, the handling of missing data in published VET research is often sub-optimal, leading to a real risk of generating results that can range from being slightly biased to being plain wrong. Given that the growing…

Increasing Oral Reading Fluency of below Grade-Level Elementary Students through Parent Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Royal, Louise I.

2012-01-01

An increasing number of elementary students in a rural school were promoted to a higher grade without having grade-level reading fluency skills, thereby becoming at risk of not reaching or maintaining their academic grade level reading skills. The purpose of this ex post facto quantitative study involving archival data analysis was to investigate…

Validation of the IHC4 Breast Cancer Prognostic Algorithm Using Multiple Approaches on the Multinational TEAM Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Bartlett, John M S; Christiansen, Jason; Gustavson, Mark; Rimm, David L; Piper, Tammy; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Hasenburg, Annette; Kieback, Dirk G; Putter, Hein; Markopoulos, Christos J; Dirix, Luc Y; Seynaeve, Caroline; Rea, Daniel W

2016-01-01

Hormone receptors HER2/neu and Ki-67 are markers of residual risk in early breast cancer. An algorithm (IHC4) combining these markers may provide additional information on residual risk of recurrence in patients treated with hormone therapy. To independently validate the IHC4 algorithm in the multinational Tamoxifen Versus Exemestane Adjuvant Multicenter Trial (TEAM) cohort, originally developed on the trans-ATAC (Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination Trial) cohort, by comparing 2 methodologies. The IHC4 biomarker expression was quantified on TEAM cohort samples (n = 2919) by using 2 independent methodologies (conventional 3,3'-diaminobezidine [DAB] immunohistochemistry with image analysis and standardized quantitative immunofluorescence [QIF] by AQUA technology). The IHC4 scores were calculated by using the same previously established coefficients and then compared with recurrence-free and distant recurrence-free survival, using multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling. The QIF model was highly significant for prediction of residual risk (P < .001), with continuous model scores showing a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.012 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.010-1.014), which was significantly higher than that for the DAB model (HR: 1.008, 95% CI: 1.006-1.009); P < .001). Each model added significant prognostic value in addition to recognized clinical prognostic factors, including nodal status, in multivariate analyses. Quantitative immunofluorescence, however, showed more accuracy with respect to overall residual risk assessment than the DAB model. The use of the IHC4 algorithm was validated on the TEAM trial for predicting residual risk in patients with breast cancer. These data support the use of the IHC4 algorithm clinically, but quantitative and standardized approaches need to be used.

Microseismic Precursory Characteristics of Rock Burst Hazard in Mining Areas Near a Large Residual Coal Pillar: A Case Study from Xuzhuang Coal Mine, Xuzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, An-ye; Dou, Lin-ming; Wang, Chang-bin; Yao, Xiao-xiao; Dong, Jing-yuan; Gu, Yu

2016-11-01

Identification of precursory characteristics is a key issue for rock burst prevention. The aim of this research is to provide a reference for assessing rock burst risk and determining potential rock burst risk areas in coal mining. In this work, the microseismic multidimensional information for the identification of rock bursts and spatial-temporal pre-warning was investigated in a specific coalface which suffered high rock burst risk in a mining area near a large residual coal pillar. Firstly, microseismicity evolution prior to a disastrous rock burst was qualitatively analysed, and the abnormal clustering of seismic sources, abnormal variations in daily total energy release, and event counts can be regarded as precursors to rock burst. Secondly, passive tomographic imaging has been used to locate high seismic activity zones and assess rock burst hazard when the coalface passes through residual pillar areas. The results show that high-velocity or velocity anomaly regions correlated well with strong seismic activities in future mining periods and that passive tomography has the potential to describe, both quantitatively and periodically, hazardous regions and assess rock burst risk. Finally, the bursting strain energy index was further used for short-term spatial-temporal pre-warning of rock bursts. The temporal sequence curve and spatial contour nephograms indicate that the status of the danger and the specific hazardous zones, and levels of rock burst risk can be quantitatively and rapidly analysed in short time and in space. The multidimensional precursory characteristic identification of rock bursts, including qualitative analysis, intermediate and short-time quantitative predictions, can guide the choice of measures implemented to control rock bursts in the field, and provides a new approach to monitor and forecast rock bursts in space and time.

Performance of Two Quantitative PCR Methods for Microbial Source Tracking of Human Sewage and Implications for Microbial Risk Assessment in Recreational Waters

PubMed Central

Staley, Christopher; Gordon, Katrina V.; Schoen, Mary E.

2012-01-01

Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for assessment of recreational water quality and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant source has been diluted in environmental waters is needed. This study determined the limits of detection and quantification of the human-associated Bacteroides sp. (HF183) and human polyomavirus (HPyV) qPCR methods for sewage diluted in buffer and in five ambient, Florida water types (estuarine, marine, tannic, lake, and river). HF183 was quantifiable in sewage diluted up to 10−6 in 500-ml ambient-water samples, but HPyVs were not quantifiable in dilutions of >10−4. Specificity, which was assessed using fecal composites from dogs, birds, and cattle, was 100% for HPyVs and 81% for HF183. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) estimated the possible norovirus levels in sewage and the human health risk at various sewage dilutions. When juxtaposed with the MST marker detection limits, the QMRA analysis revealed that HF183 was detectable when the modeled risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness was at or below the benchmark of 10 illnesses per 1,000 exposures, but the HPyV method was generally not sensitive enough to detect potential health risks at the 0.01 threshold for frequency of illness. The tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity in the MST methods indicates that HF183 data should be interpreted judiciously, preferably in conjunction with a more host-specific marker, and that better methods of concentrating HPyVs from environmental waters are needed if this method is to be useful in a watershed management or monitoring context. PMID:22885746

Left atrial appendage segmentation and quantitative assisted diagnosis of atrial fibrillation based on fusion of temporal-spatial information.

PubMed

Jin, Cheng; Feng, Jianjiang; Wang, Lei; Yu, Heng; Liu, Jiang; Lu, Jiwen; Zhou, Jie

2018-05-01

In this paper, we present an approach for left atrial appendage (LAA) multi-phase fast segmentation and quantitative assisted diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) based on 4D-CT data. We take full advantage of the temporal dimension information to segment the living, flailed LAA based on a parametric max-flow method and graph-cut approach to build 3-D model of each phase. To assist the diagnosis of AF, we calculate the volumes of 3-D models, and then generate a "volume-phase" curve to calculate the important dynamic metrics: ejection fraction, filling flux, and emptying flux of the LAA's blood by volume. This approach demonstrates more precise results than the conventional approaches that calculate metrics by area, and allows for the quick analysis of LAA-volume pattern changes of in a cardiac cycle. It may also provide insight into the individual differences in the lesions of the LAA. Furthermore, we apply support vector machines (SVMs) to achieve a quantitative auto-diagnosis of the AF by exploiting seven features from volume change ratios of the LAA, and perform multivariate logistic regression analysis for the risk of LAA thrombosis. The 100 cases utilized in this research were taken from the Philips 256-iCT. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can construct the 3-D LAA geometries robustly compared to manual annotations, and reasonably infer that the LAA undergoes filling, emptying and re-filling, re-emptying in a cardiac cycle. This research provides a potential for exploring various physiological functions of the LAA and quantitatively estimating the risk of stroke in patients with AF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

Quantitative Approach to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Linear Accelerator Quality Assurance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Daniel, Jennifer C., E-mail: jennifer.odaniel@duke.edu; Yin, Fang-Fang

Purpose: To determine clinic-specific linear accelerator quality assurance (QA) TG-142 test frequencies, to maximize physicist time efficiency and patient treatment quality. Methods and Materials: A novel quantitative approach to failure mode and effect analysis is proposed. Nine linear accelerator-years of QA records provided data on failure occurrence rates. The severity of test failure was modeled by introducing corresponding errors into head and neck intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment plans. The relative risk of daily linear accelerator QA was calculated as a function of frequency of test performance. Results: Although the failure severity was greatest for daily imaging QA (imaging vsmore » treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning), the failure occurrence rate was greatest for output and laser testing. The composite ranking results suggest that performing output and lasers tests daily, imaging versus treatment isocenter and imaging positioning/repositioning tests weekly, and optical distance indicator and jaws versus light field tests biweekly would be acceptable for non-stereotactic radiosurgery/stereotactic body radiation therapy linear accelerators. Conclusions: Failure mode and effect analysis is a useful tool to determine the relative importance of QA tests from TG-142. Because there are practical time limitations on how many QA tests can be performed, this analysis highlights which tests are the most important and suggests the frequency of testing based on each test's risk priority number.« less

Efficacy and safety profile of xanthines in COPD: a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cazzola, Mario; Calzetta, Luigino; Barnes, Peter J; Criner, Gerard J; Martinez, Fernando J; Papi, Alberto; Gabriella Matera, Maria

2018-06-30

Theophylline can still have a role in the management of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its use remains controversial, mainly due to its narrow therapeutic window. Doxofylline, another xanthine, is an effective bronchodilator and displays a better safety profile than theophylline. Therefore, we performed a quantitative synthesis to compare the efficacy and safety profile of different xanthines in COPD.The primary end-point of this meta-analysis was the impact of xanthines on lung function. In addition, we assessed the risk of adverse events by normalising data on safety as a function of person-weeks. Data obtained from 998 COPD patients were selected from 14 studies and meta-analysed using a network approach.The combined surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) analysis of efficacy (change from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s) and safety (risk of adverse events) showed that doxofylline was superior to aminophylline (comparable efficacy and significantly better safety), bamiphylline (significantly better efficacy and comparable safety), and theophylline (comparable efficacy and significantly better safety).Considering the overall efficacy/safety profile of the investigated agents, the results of this quantitative synthesis suggest that doxofylline seems to be the best xanthine for the treatment of COPD. Copyright ©ERS 2018.

Methodology development for quantitative optimization of security enhancement in medical information systems -Case study in a PACS and a multi-institutional radiotherapy database-.

PubMed

Haneda, Kiyofumi; Umeda, Tokuo; Koyama, Tadashi; Harauchi, Hajime; Inamura, Kiyonari

2002-01-01

The target of our study is to establish the methodology for analyzing level of security requirements, for searching suitable security measures and for optimizing security distribution to every portion of medical practice. Quantitative expression must be introduced to our study as possible for the purpose of easy follow up of security procedures and easy evaluation of security outcomes or results. Results of system analysis by fault tree analysis (FTA) clarified that subdivided system elements in detail contribute to much more accurate analysis. Such subdivided composition factors very much depended on behavior of staff, interactive terminal devices, kinds of service, and routes of network. As conclusion, we found the methods to analyze levels of security requirements for each medical information systems employing FTA, basic events for each composition factor and combination of basic events. Methods for searching suitable security measures were found. Namely risk factors for each basic event, number of elements for each composition factor and candidates of security measure elements were found. Method to optimize the security measures for each medical information system was proposed. Namely optimum distribution of risk factors in terms of basic events were figured out, and comparison of them between each medical information systems became possible.

Comparison of different approaches to quantitative adenovirus detection in stool specimens of hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients.

PubMed

Kosulin, K; Dworzak, S; Lawitschka, A; Matthes-Leodolter, S; Lion, T

2016-12-01

Adenoviruses almost invariably proliferate in the gastrointestinal tract prior to dissemination, and critical threshold concentrations in stool correlate with the risk of viremia. Monitoring of adenovirus loads in stool may therefore be important for timely initiation of treatment in order to prevent invasive infection. Comparison of a manual DNA extraction kit in combination with a validated in-house PCR assay with automated extraction on the NucliSENS-EasyMAG device coupled with the Adenovirus R-gene kit (bioMérieux) for quantitative adenovirus analysis in stool samples. Stool specimens spiked with adenovirus concentrations in a range from 10E2-10E11 copies/g and 32 adenovirus-positive clinical stool specimens from pediatric stem cell transplant recipients were tested along with appropriate negative controls. Quantitative analysis of viral load in adenovirus-positive stool specimens revealed a median difference of 0.5 logs (range 0.1-2.2) between the detection systems tested and a difference of 0.3 logs (range 0.0-1.7) when the comparison was restricted to the PCR assays only. Spiking experiments showed a detection limit of 10 2 -10 3 adenovirus copies/g stool revealing a somewhat higher sensitivity offered by the automated extraction. The dynamic range of accurate quantitative analysis by both systems investigated was between 10 3 and 10 8 virus copies/g. The differences in quantitative analysis of adenovirus copy numbers between the systems tested were primarily attributable to the DNA extraction method used, while the qPCR assays revealed a high level of concordance. Both systems showed adequate performance for detection and monitoring of adenoviral load in stool specimens. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy coupled to UV-Visible analysis technique for aminosides and glycopeptides quantitation in antibiotic locks.

PubMed

Sayet, G; Sinegre, M; Ben Reguiga, M

2014-01-01

Antibiotic Lock technique maintains catheters' sterility in high-risk patients with long-term parenteral nutrition. In our institution, vancomycin, teicoplanin, amikacin and gentamicin locks are prepared in the pharmaceutical department. In order to insure patient safety and to comply to regulatory requirements, antibiotic locks are submitted to qualitative and quantitative assays prior to their release. The aim of this study was to develop an alternative quantitation technique for each of these 4 antibiotics, using a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) coupled to UV-Visible spectroscopy and to compare results to HPLC or Immunochemistry assays. Prevalidation studies permitted to assess spectroscopic conditions used for antibiotic locks quantitation: FTIR/UV combinations were used for amikacin (1091-1115cm(-1) and 208-224nm), vancomycin (1222-1240cm(-1) and 276-280nm), and teicoplanin (1226-1230cm(-1) and 278-282nm). Gentamicin was quantified with FTIR only (1045-1169cm(-1) and 2715-2850cm(-1)) due to interferences in UV domain of parabens, preservatives present in the commercial brand used to prepare locks. For all AL, the method was linear (R(2)=0.996 to 0.999), accurate, repeatable (intraday RSD%: from 2.9 to 7.1% and inter-days RSD%: 2.9 to 5.1%) and precise. Compared to the reference methods, the FTIR/UV method appeared tightly correlated (Pearson factor: 97.4 to 99.9%) and did not show significant difference in recovery determinations. We developed a new simple reliable analysis technique for antibiotics quantitation in locks using an original association of FTIR and UV analysis, allowing a short time analysis to identify and quantify the studied antibiotics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

Occupational risk assessment in the construction industry in Iran.

PubMed

Seifi Azad Mard, Hamid Reza; Estiri, Ali; Hadadi, Parinaz; Seifi Azad Mard, Mahshid

2017-12-01

Occupational accidents in the construction industry are more common compared with other fields and these accidents are more severe compared with the global average in developing countries, especially in Iran. Studies which lead to the source of these accidents and suggest solutions for them are therefore valuable. In this study a combination of the failure mode and effects analysis method and fuzzy theory is used as a semi-qualitative-quantitative method for analyzing risks and failure modes. The main causes of occupational accidents in this field were identified and analyzed based on three factors; severity, detection and occurrence. Based on whether the risks are high or low priority, modifying actions were suggested to reduce the occupational risks. Finally, the results showed that high priority risks had a 40% decrease due to these actions.

Long- and short-time analysis of heartbeat sequences: correlation with mortality risk in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Allegrini, P; Balocchi, R; Chillemi, S; Grigolini, P; Hamilton, P; Maestri, R; Palatella, L; Raffaelli, G

2003-06-01

We analyze RR heartbeat sequences with a dynamic model that satisfactorily reproduces both the long- and the short-time statistical properties of heart beating. These properties are expressed quantitatively by means of two significant parameters, the scaling delta concerning the asymptotic effects of long-range correlation, and the quantity 1-pi establishing the amount of uncorrelated fluctuations. We find a correlation between the position in the phase space (delta, pi) of patients with congestive heart failure and their mortality risk.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Quantitative mass spectrometry of unconventional human biological matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutkiewicz, Ewelina P.; Urban, Pawel L.

2016-10-01

The development of sensitive and versatile mass spectrometric methodology has fuelled interest in the analysis of metabolites and drugs in unconventional biological specimens. Here, we discuss the analysis of eight human matrices-hair, nail, breath, saliva, tears, meibum, nasal mucus and skin excretions (including sweat)-by mass spectrometry (MS). The use of such specimens brings a number of advantages, the most important being non-invasive sampling, the limited risk of adulteration and the ability to obtain information that complements blood and urine tests. The most often studied matrices are hair, breath and saliva. This review primarily focuses on endogenous (e.g. potential biomarkers, hormones) and exogenous (e.g. drugs, environmental contaminants) small molecules. The majority of analytical methods used chromatographic separation prior to MS; however, such a hyphenated methodology greatly limits analytical throughput. On the other hand, the mass spectrometric methods that exclude chromatographic separation are fast but suffer from matrix interferences. To enable development of quantitative assays for unconventional matrices, it is desirable to standardize the protocols for the analysis of each specimen and create appropriate certified reference materials. Overcoming these challenges will make analysis of unconventional human biological matrices more common in a clinical setting. This article is part of the themed issue 'Quantitative mass spectrometry'.

Quantitative Trait Locus Analysis of SIX1-SIX6 with Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness in Individuals of European Descent

PubMed Central

Kuo, Jane Z.; Zangwill, Linda M.; Medeiros, Felipe A.; Liebmann, Jeffery M.; Girkin, Christopher A.; Hammel, Na’ama; Rotter, Jerome I.; Weinreb, Robert N.

2015-01-01

Purpose To perform a quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis and evaluate whether a locus between SIX1 and SIX6 is associated with retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in individuals of European descent. Design Observational, multi-center, cross-sectional study. Methods 231 participants were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study. Association of rs10483727 in SIX1-SIX6 with global and sectoral RNFL thickness was performed. Quantitative trait analysis with the additive model of inheritance was analyzed using linear regression. Trend analysis was performed to evaluate the mean global and sectoral RNFL thickness with 3 genotypes of interest (T/T, C/T, C/C). All models were adjusted for age and gender. Results Direction of association between T allele and RNFL thickness was consistent in the global and different sectoral RNFL regions. Each copy of the T risk allele in rs10483727 was associated with −0.16 μm thinner global RNFL thickness (β=−0.16, 95% CI: −0.28 to −0.03; P=0.01). Similar patterns were found for the sectoral regions, including inferior (P=0.03), inferior-nasal (P=0.017), superior-nasal (P=0.0025), superior (P=0.002) and superior-temporal (P=0.008). The greatest differences were observed in the superior and inferior quadrants, supporting clinical observations for RNFL thinning in glaucoma. Thinner global RNFL was found in subjects with T/T genotypes compared to subjects with C/T and C/C genotypes (P=0.044). Conclusions Each copy of the T risk allele has an additive effect and was associated with thinner global and sectoral RNFL. Findings from this QTL analysis further support a genetic contribution to glaucoma pathophysiology. PMID:25849520

Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

2016-02-15

Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling and quantitative methods.

PubMed

Edler, L; Poirier, K; Dourson, M; Kleiner, J; Mileson, B; Nordmann, H; Renwick, A; Slob, W; Walton, K; Würtzen, G

2002-01-01

The present review reports on the mathematical methods and statistical techniques presently available for hazard characterisation. The state of the art of mathematical modelling and quantitative methods used currently for regulatory decision-making in Europe and additional potential methods for risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet are described. Existing practices of JECFA, FDA, EPA, etc., are examined for their similarities and differences. A framework is established for the development of new and improved quantitative methodologies. Areas for refinement, improvement and increase of efficiency of each method are identified in a gap analysis. Based on this critical evaluation, needs for future research are defined. It is concluded from our work that mathematical modelling of the dose-response relationship would improve the risk assessment process. An adequate characterisation of the dose-response relationship by mathematical modelling clearly requires the use of a sufficient number of dose groups to achieve a range of different response levels. This need not necessarily lead to an increase in the total number of animals in the study if an appropriate design is used. Chemical-specific data relating to the mode or mechanism of action and/or the toxicokinetics of the chemical should be used for dose-response characterisation whenever possible. It is concluded that a single method of hazard characterisation would not be suitable for all kinds of risk assessments, and that a range of different approaches is necessary so that the method used is the most appropriate for the data available and for the risk characterisation issue. Future refinements to dose-response characterisation should incorporate more clearly the extent of uncertainty and variability in the resulting output.

Triglycerides and small dense low density lipoprotein in the discrimination of coronary heart disease risk in South Asian populations.

PubMed

Patel, J V; Caslake, M J; Vyas, A; Cruickshank, J K; Prabhakaran, D; Bhatnagar, D; Reddy, K S; Lip, G Y H; Mackness, M I; Hughes, E A; Durrington, P N

2010-04-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is exceptionally prevalent amongst globally dispersed migrant groups originating from the Indian subcontinent, but the contribution of dyslipidaemia to their increased risk remains poorly defined. Fasting lipids and lipoproteins, apolipoproteins (Apo), low density lipoprotein (LDL) diameter and oxidised LDL were measured amongst rural Indians in India (n=294) and their migrant contemporaries in the UK (n=242). The performance of qualitative and quantitative measures of lipid metabolism were compared in the discrimination of WHO defined metabolic risk and raised Framingham CHD risk scores (>15%) using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. LDL diameter was correlated with triglycerides (R(2)=0.12, P<0.001) and with high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels (R(2)=0.15, P<0.001) in both groups. Migrants had less small dense LDL (95% CI: 12.5-14.2%) vs. rural Indians (15.7-17.2, P<0.05). On ROC analysis, triglycerides were the only consistent discriminators of metabolic and CHD risk scores (all P< or =0.001). Apo B was also a strong indicator of raised CHD risk scores. Irrespective of site, individuals with raised triglycerides also had higher total cholesterol and Apo B, denser LDL, lower HDL and more oxidised LDL (all P< or =0.01). Fasting triglycerides reflect both qualitative and quantitative aspects of lipid metabolism, and are a comprehensive discriminator of CHD risk in this South Asian population. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

2016-08-01

This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

Using Formative Scenario Analysis approach for landslide risk analysis in a relatively scarce data environment: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumpano, Veronica; Balteanu, Dan; Mazzorana, Bruno; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

It is increasingly important to provide to stakeholders tools that will enable them to better understand what is the state of the environment in which they live and manage and to help them to make decisions that aim to minimize the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards. Very often, however, quantitative studies, especially for large areas, are difficult to perform. This is due to the fact that unfortunately isn't often possible to have the numerous data required to perform the analysis. In addition it has been proven that in scenario analysis, often deterministic approaches are not able to detect some features of the system revealing unexpected behaviors, and resulting in underestimation or omission of some impact factors. Here are presented some preliminary results obtained applying Formative Scenario Analysis that can be considered a possible solution for landslide risk analysis in cases where the data needed even if existent are not available. This method is an expert based approach that integrates intuitions and qualitative evaluations of impact factors with the quantitative analysis of relations between these factors: a group of experts with different but pertinent expertise, determine (by a rating procedure) quantitative relations between these factors, then through mathematical operations the scenarios describing a certain state of the system are obtained. The approach is applied to Buzau County (Romania), an area belonging to the Curvature Romanian Carpathians and Subcarpathians, a region strongly affected by environmental hazards. The region has been previously involved in numerous episodes of severe hydro-meteorological events that caused considerable damages (1975, 2005, 2006). In this application we are referring only to one type of landslides that can be described as shallow and medium-seated with a (mainly) translational movement that can go from slide to flow. The material involved can be either soil, debris or a mixture of both, in Romanian literature these typical movements has been described as alunecare curgatoare. The Formative Scenario Analysis approach will be applied for each component of risk (H,V,and A) and then the acquired states will be combined in order to obtain for obtaining a series of alternatives scenarios for risk. The approach is structured in two main sections corresponding to a level of influence of conditioning factors and a response. In this latter are obtained the results of the formative scenario approach trained with the conditioning factors of the first level. These factors are divided in two subsets representing 2 levels of influences, k=1 comprises the global factors while in k=2 one finds local factors. In order to include uncertainty estimation within the analysis the method of knowledge representation type-1 fuzzy sets is introduced and hence decisions made by experts on certain events are expressed in terms of triangular fuzzy numbers.

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

PubMed

Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

2014-12-01

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

PubMed

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevention of abortion in cattle following vaccination against bovine herpesvirus 1: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Newcomer, Benjamin W; Cofield, L Grady; Walz, Paul H; Givens, M Daniel

2017-03-01

Bovine herpesvirus 1 is ubiquitous in cattle populations and is the cause of several clinical syndromes including respiratory disease, genital disease, and late-term abortions. Control of the virus in many parts of the world is achieved primarily through vaccination with either inactivated or modified-live viral vaccines. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the cumulative efficacy of BoHV-1 vaccination to prevent abortion in pregnant cattle. Germane articles for inclusion in the analysis were identified through four online scientific databases and the examination of three review and ten primary study article reference lists. A total of 15 studies in 10 manuscripts involving over 7500 animals were included in the meta-analysis. Risk ratio effect sizes were used in random effects, weighted meta-analyses to assess the impact of vaccination. Subgroup analyses were performed based on type of vaccine, MLV or inactivated, and the type of disease challenge, experimentally induced compared to field studies. A 60% decrease in abortion risk in vaccinated cattle was demonstrated. The greatest decrease in abortion risk was seen in studies with intentional viral challenge although vaccination also decreased abortion risk in field studies. Both inactivated and modified-live viral vaccines decreased abortion risk. This meta-analysis provides quantitative support for the benefit of bovine herpesvirus 1 vaccination in the prevention of abortion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of the Methodology Needed to Quantify Risks to Groundwater at CO2 Storage Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C. F.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Carroll, S.; Hakala, A.; Keating, E. H.; Lopano, C. L.; Newell, D. L.; Spycher, N.

2011-12-01

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is an effort that harnesses capabilities across five U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories into a mission-focused platform to develop a defensible, science-based quantitative methodology for determining risk profiles at CO2 storage sites. NRAP is conducting risk and uncertainty analysis in the areas of reservoir performance, natural leakage pathways, wellbore integrity, groundwater protection, monitoring, and systems level modeling. The mission of NRAP is "to provide the scientific underpinning for risk assessment with respect to the long-term storage of CO2, including assessment of residual risk associated with a site post-closure." Additionally, NRAP will develop a strategic, risk-based monitoring protocol, such that monitoring at all stages of a project effectively minimizes uncertainty in the predicted behavior of the site, thereby increasing confidence in storage integrity. NRAP's research focus in the area of groundwater protection is divided into three main tasks: 1) development of quantitative risk profiles for potential groundwater impacts; 2) filling key science gaps in developing those risk profiles; and 3) field-based confirmation. Within these three tasks, researchers are engaged in collaborative studies to determine metrics to identify system perturbation and their associated risk factors. Reservoir simulations are being performed to understand/predict consequences of hypothetical leakage scenarios, from which reduced order models are being developed to feed risk profile development. Both laboratory-based experiments and reactive transport modeling studies provide estimates of geochemical impacts over a broad range of leakage scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of the research objectives within NRAP's groundwater protection focus area, as well as select accomplishments achieved to date.

Discriminative capacity of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound and of osteoporosis and fracture risk factors in postmenopausal women with osteoporotic fractures.

PubMed

Hernández, J L; Marin, F; González-Macías, J; Díez-Pérez, A; Vila, J; Giménez, S; Galán, B; Arenas, M S; Suárez, F; Gayola, L; Guillén, G; Sagredo, T; Belenguer, R; Moron, A; Arriaza, E

2004-04-01

Bone fragility fractures constitute the principal complication of osteoporosis. The identification of individuals at high risk of sustaining osteoporotic fractures is important for implementing preventive measures. The purpose of this study is to analyze the discriminative capacity of a series of osteoporosis and fracture risk factors, and of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS), in a population of postmenopausal women with a history of osteoporotic fracture. A cross-sectional analysis was made of a cohort of 5195 women aged 65 or older (mean +/- SD: 72.3 +/- 5.4 years) seen in 58 primary care centers in Spain. A total of 1042 women (20.1%) presented with a history of osteoporotic fracture. Most fractures (93%) were non-vertebral. Age-adjusted odds ratios corresponding to each decrease in one standard deviation of the different QUS parameters ranged from 1.47 to 1.55 (P < 0.001) for fractures. The age-adjusted multivariate analysis yielded the following risk factors independently associated with a history of osteoporotic fracture: number of fertile years, a family history of fracture, falls in the previous year, a history of chronic obstructive airway disease, the use of antiarrhythmic drugs, and a low value for any of the QUS parameters. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the best model was 0.656. In summary, a series of easily assessable osteoporotic fracture risk factors has been identified. QUS was shown to discriminate between women with and without a history of fracture, and constitutes a useful tool for assessing fracture risk. Various of the vertebral and hip fracture risk factors frequently cited in North American and British populations showed no discriminative capacity in our series--thus suggesting that such factors may not be fully applicable to our population and/or to the predominant type of fractures included in the present study.

A software package to improve image quality and isolation of objects of interest for quantitative stereology studies of rat hepatocarcinogenesis.

PubMed

Xu, Yihua; Pitot, Henry C

2006-03-01

In the studies of quantitative stereology of rat hepatocarcinogenesis, we have used image analysis technology (automatic particle analysis) to obtain data such as liver tissue area, size and location of altered hepatic focal lesions (AHF), and nuclei counts. These data are then used for three-dimensional estimation of AHF occurrence and nuclear labeling index analysis. These are important parameters for quantitative studies of carcinogenesis, for screening and classifying carcinogens, and for risk estimation. To take such measurements, structures or cells of interest should be separated from the other components based on the difference of color and density. Common background problems seen on the captured sample image such as uneven light illumination or color shading can cause severe problems in the measurement. Two application programs (BK_Correction and Pixel_Separator) have been developed to solve these problems. With BK_Correction, common background problems such as incorrect color temperature setting, color shading, and uneven light illumination background, can be corrected. With Pixel_Separator different types of objects can be separated from each other in relation to their color, such as seen with different colors in immunohistochemically stained slides. The resultant images of such objects separated from other components are then ready for particle analysis. Objects that have the same darkness but different colors can be accurately differentiated in a grayscale image analysis system after application of these programs.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

Vulnerability of teleosts caught by the pelagic tuna longline fleets in South Atlantic and Western Indian Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucena-Frédou, Flávia; Kell, Laurie; Frédou, Thierry; Gaertner, Daniel; Potier, Michel; Bach, Pascal; Travassos, Paulo; Hazin, Fábio; Ménard, Frédéric

2017-06-01

Productivity and Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) is a methodology for evaluating the vulnerability of a stock based on its biological productivity and susceptibility to fishing. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of 60 stocks of tuna, billfishes and other teleosts caught by the tuna longline fleets operating in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean using a semi-quantitative PSA. We (a) evaluated the vulnerability of the species in the study areas; (b) compared the vulnerability of target and non-target species and oceans; (c) analyzed the sensitivity of data entry; and (d) compared the results of the PSA to other fully quantitative assessment methods. Istiophoridae exhibited the highest scores for vulnerability. The top 10 species at risk were: Atlantic Istiophorus albicans; Indian Ocean Istiompax indica; Atlantic Makaira nigricans and Thunnus alalunga; Indian Ocean Xiphias gladius; Atlantic T. albacares, Gempylus serpens, Ranzania laevis and X. gladius; and Indian Ocean T. alalunga. All species considered at high risk were targeted or were commercialized bycatch, except for the Atlantic G. serpens and R. laevis which were discarded, and may be considered as a false positive. Those species and others at high risk should be prioritized for further assessment and/or data collection. Most species at moderate risk were bycatch species kept for sale. Conversely, species classified at low risk were mostly discarded. Overall, species at high risk were overfished and/or subjected to overfishing. Moreover, all species considered to be within extinction risk (Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable) were in the high-risk category. The good concordance between approaches corroborates the results of our analysis. PSA is not a replacement for traditional stock assessments, where a stock is assessed at regular intervals to provide management advice. It is of importance, however, where there is uncertainty about catches and life history parameters, since it can identify species at risk, and where management action and data collection is required, e.g. for many species at high and most at moderate risk in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.

Real time chemical exposure and risk monitor

DOEpatents

Thrall, Karla D.; Kenny, Donald V.; Endres, George W. R.; Sisk, Daniel R.

1997-01-01

The apparatus of the present invention is a combination of a breath interface and an external exposure dosimeter interface to a chemical analysis device, all controlled by an electronic processor for quantitatively analyzing chemical analysis data from both the breath interface and the external exposure dosimeter for determining internal tissue dose. The method of the present invention is a combination of steps of measuring an external dose, measuring breath content, then analyzing the external dose and breath content and determining internal tissue dose.

Real time chemical exposure and risk monitor

DOEpatents

Thrall, K.D.; Kenny, D.V.; Endres, G.W.R.; Sisk, D.R.

1997-07-08

The apparatus of the present invention is a combination of a breath interface and an external exposure dosimeter interface to a chemical analysis device, all controlled by an electronic processor for quantitatively analyzing chemical analysis data from both the breath interface and the external exposure dosimeter for determining internal tissue dose. The method of the present invention is a combination of steps of measuring an external dose, measuring breath content, then analyzing the external dose and breath content and determining internal tissue dose. 7 figs.

Detection and enumeration of Salmonella enteritidis in homemade ice cream associated with an outbreak: comparison of conventional and real-time PCR methods.

PubMed

Seo, K H; Valentin-Bon, I E; Brackett, R E

2006-03-01

Salmonellosis caused by Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) is a significant cause of foodborne illnesses in the United States. Consumption of undercooked eggs and egg-containing products has been the primary risk factor for the disease. The importance of the bacterial enumeration technique has been enormously stressed because of the quantitative risk analysis of SE in shell eggs. Traditional enumeration methods mainly depend on slow and tedious most-probable-number (MPN) methods. Therefore, specific, sensitive, and rapid methods for SE quantitation are needed to collect sufficient data for risk assessment and food safety policy development. We previously developed a real-time quantitative PCR assay for the direct detection and enumeration of SE and, in this study, applied it to naturally contaminated ice cream samples with and without enrichment. The detection limit of the real-time PCR assay was determined with artificially inoculated ice cream. When applied to the direct detection and quantification of SE in ice cream, the real-time PCR assay was as sensitive as the conventional plate count method in frequency of detection. However, populations of SE derived from real-time quantitative PCR were approximately 1 log higher than provided by MPN and CFU values obtained by conventional culture methods. The detection and enumeration of SE in naturally contaminated ice cream can be completed in 3 h by this real-time PCR method, whereas the cultural enrichment method requires 5 to 7 days. A commercial immunoassay for the specific detection of SE was also included in the study. The real-time PCR assay proved to be a valuable tool that may be useful to the food industry in monitoring its processes to improve product quality and safety.

What physicists should learn about finance (if they want to)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly

2006-03-01

There has been growing interest among physicists to Econophysics, i.e. analysis and modeling of financial and economic processes using the concepts of theoretical Physics. There has been also perception that the financial industry is a viable alternative for those physicists who are not able or are not willing to pursue career in their major field. However in our times, the Wall Street expects from applicants for quantitative positions not only the knowledge of the stochastic calculus and the methods of time series analysis but also of such concepts as option pricing, portfolio management, and risk measurement. Here I describe a synthetic course based on my book ``Quantitative Finance for Physicists'' (Elsevier, 2004) that outlines both worlds: Econophysics and Mathematical Finance. This course may be offered as elective for senior undergraduate or graduate Physics majors.

Dealing with the Aftermath: A Qualitative Analysis of Mental Health Social Workers' Reactions after a Client Suicide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ting, Laura; Sanders, Sara; Jacobson, Jodi M.; Power, James R.

2006-01-01

Social workers provide services to populations with mental health issues, including suicidal ideations and are thus at risk of experiencing a client suicide at some point during their career. Limited research using quantitative methods has explored the effect of client suicide on social workers, but little is known about their reactions from a…

Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

Acceptability and Feasibility of Cash Transfers for HIV Prevention among Adolescent South African Women

PubMed Central

MacPhail, Catherine; Adato, Michelle; Kahn, Kathleen; Selin, Amanda; Twine, Rhian; Khoza, Samson; Rosenberg, Molly; Nguyen, Nadia; Becker, Elizabeth; Pettifor, Audrey

2013-01-01

Women are at increased risk of HIV infection in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal and cross-sectional studies have found an association between school attendance and reduced HIV risk. We report feasibility and acceptability results from a pilot of a cash transfer intervention conditional on school attendance paid to young women and their families in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa for the prevention of HIV infection. Twenty-nine young women were randomised to intervention or control and a cash payment based on school attendance made over a 2 month period. Quantitative (survey) and qualitative (focus group and interview) data collection was undertaken with young women, parents, teachers and young men in the same school. Qualitative analysis was conducted in Atlas.ti using a framework approach and basic descriptive analysis in Excel was conducted on the quantitative data. Results indicate it was both feasible and acceptable to introduce such an intervention among this population in rural South Africa. There was good understanding of the process of randomisation and the aims of the study, although some rumours developed in the study community. We address some of the changes necessary to ensure acceptability and feasibility of the main trial. PMID:23435698

Geo-ethical dimension of community's safety: rural and urban population vulnerability analysis methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Yuschenko, Maxim

2016-04-01

Modern world based on relations more than on causalities, so communicative, socio-economic, and socio-cultural issues are important to understand nature of risks and to make correct, ethical decisions. Today major part of risk analysts declared new nature of modern risks. We faced coherent or systemic risks, realization of which leads to domino effect, unexpected growing of losses and fatalities. This type of risks originated by complicated nature of heterogeneous environment, close interconnection of engineering networks, and changing structure of society. Heterogeneous multi-agent environment generates systemic risks, which requires analyze multi-source data with sophisticated tools. Formal basis for analysis of this type of risks is developed during last 5-7 years. But issues of social fairness, ethics, and education require further development. One aspect of analysis of social issues of risk management is studied in this paper. Formal algorithm for quantitative analysis of multi-source data analysis is proposed. As it was demonstrated, using proposed methodological base and the algorithm, it is possible to obtain regularized spatial-temporal distribution of investigated parameters over whole observation period with rectified reliability and controlled uncertainty. The result of disaster data analysis demonstrates that about half of direct disaster damage might be caused by social factors: education, experience and social behaviour. Using data presented also possible to estimate quantitative parameters of the losses distributions: a relation between education, age, experience, and losses; as well as vulnerability (in terms of probable damage) toward financial status in current social density. It is demonstrated that on wide-scale range an education determines risk perception and so vulnerability of societies. But on the local level there are important heterogeneities. Land-use and urbanization structure influencing to vulnerability essentially. The way to calculate a distribution of losses connected with decision making in land-use is demonstrated. Rural community's vulnerability determines by water availability, quality of soils, effectiveness of land use (including climate change adaptation), intensity of pollutions, crop productivity variations during the period of crop rotation, annual national distribution of crops output, and distance to city centres. It should noted here that "distance to city centres" is not comprehensive indicator of market accessibility in general case: quality and availability of transport infrastructure should be described more detailed on the next stages of analysis. Urban population vulnerability determines by distribution of urban fractures and quality urban environment: density, quality and availability of infrastructure, balance between industrial, residential and recreational zones, effectiveness of urban land use and landscape management, and social policy, particularly, employment. Population density is closely connected with social density, with communications and decision making. Social learning, as the function of social communications, is the way to increase sustainability. Also it possible to say that social sustainability is a function of intensity and efficiency of communications between interlinked and interacted networks in the heterogeneous environment. Therefore the results of study demonstrated that risk management study should includes issues of risk and threats perception, which should be described in framework of appropriate tools and approaches connected with ethical dimension of vulnerability. For instance, problems of accessibility and availability of safety resources in view of social fairness and socio-economic dynamics should be included into future studies in field of risk analysis.

Risk factors of neurological complications in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Baranowska, Katarzyna; Juszczyk, Grzegorz; Dmitruk, Iwona; Knapp, Małgorzata; Tycińska, Agnieszka; Jakubów, Piotr; Adamczuk, Anna; Stankiewicz, Adrian; Hirnle, Tomasz

2012-01-01

Postoperative complications are integral to cardiac surgery. The most serious ones are stroke, which develops in about 7.5% of the patients, and postoperative encephalopathy, which affects 10-30% of the patients. According to bibliographical data, the number of complications is increasing. To analyse the risk factors and the types of neurological complications in patients undergoing heart surgery. We assessed retrospectively 323 consecutive patients undergoing surgery at the Department of Cardiac Surgery, University Teaching Hospital, Medical University of Bialystok, Poland, between July 2007 and June 2008. Group 1 comprised patients without neurological complications (n = 287; 89%) and Group 2 consisted of patients with neurological complications (n = 36; 11%). Our analysis included the following: preoperative status (age, sex, co-morbidities), intraoperative course (surgery type, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass [CPB], duration of aortic cross-clamping, types of medications administered, necessity of reinfusion from the cardiotomy reservoir and the necessity of tranexamic acid infusion) and the postoperative course (time to regaining consciousness, duration of mechanical ventilation, development of complications, types of complications). The results were then analysed statistically: arithmetic means and standard deviations were calculated for quantitative variables and the quantitative and percentage distributions were calculated for qualitative variables. The between- group comparisons of the quantitative variables were carried out using the t-Student test, while the qualitative variables were compared using the χ(2) test. The variables that proved significant in the univariate comparisons were included in the multivariate model. Regression analysis was the final step of the analysis of the risk factors for neurological complications. Based on the analysis of the ROC curve we calculated the cutoff values for the continuous variables. We calculated odds ratios with their 95% confidence intervals. P values of less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Among the 36 patients in Group 2, postoperative encephalopathy developed in 22 patients, transient ischaemic attacks in 7 patients, ischaemic stroke in 6 patients (associated with right hemisphere damage in 3 patients and with left hemisphere damage in 3 patients) and haemorrhagic stroke in 1 patient (right hemisphere). Early mortality was 5% with 2 (0.69%) patients dying in Group 1 and 14 (38.9%) in Group 2. Univariate analysis revealed that the preoperative risk factors of neurological complications were: age >68 years (with a cutoff value of 58.5 years), a history of stroke with paresis, atrial fibrillation (AF) and a euroSCORE of >6 (with a cutoff value of 4.5). The peri- and postoperative risk factors included: surgery type (complex coronary and valvular surgeries aortic valve surgeries), duration of CPB of >142 min, duration of aortic crossclamping of >88 min, mean perfusion pressure during CPB of <70 mm Hg, haemodilution manifested by a haematocrit (HCT) of <28%, perfusate supply, time to regaining consciousness of >14.5 h and duration of artificial ventilation of >30.5 h. Multivariate analysis revealed the following factors to increase the risk of neurological complications: long duration of ventilation, a history of stroke with paresis, AF, low HCT values and long duration of aortic cross-clamping. The Nagelkerke R2 coefficient of determination was 0.636, the sensitivity was 74.36%, the specificity was 97.545% and the accuracy was 94.74%. In patients undergoing heart surgery, the independent risk factors of neurological complications in the first 30 days include: long duration of ventilation, a history of stroke with paresis, AF, haemodilution manifested by an HCT of <28% and long duration of aortic cross-clamping. Neurological complications are associated with high postoperative mortality.

Quantitative 3D breast magnetic resonance imaging fibroglandular tissue analysis and correlation with qualitative assessments: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Ha, Richard; Mema, Eralda; Guo, Xiaotao; Mango, Victoria; Desperito, Elise; Ha, Jason; Wynn, Ralph; Zhao, Binsheng

2016-04-01

The amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) has been linked to breast cancer risk based on mammographic density studies. Currently, the qualitative assessment of FGT on mammogram (MG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is prone to intra and inter-observer variability. The purpose of this study is to develop an objective quantitative FGT measurement tool for breast MRI that could provide significant clinical value. An IRB approved study was performed. Sixty breast MRI cases with qualitative assessment of mammographic breast density and MRI FGT were randomly selected for quantitative analysis from routine breast MRIs performed at our institution from 1/2013 to 12/2014. Blinded to the qualitative data, whole breast and FGT contours were delineated on T1-weighted pre contrast sagittal images using an in-house, proprietary segmentation algorithm which combines the region-based active contours and a level set approach. FGT (%) was calculated by: [segmented volume of FGT (mm(3))/(segmented volume of whole breast (mm(3))] ×100. Statistical correlation analysis was performed between quantified FGT (%) on MRI and qualitative assessments of mammographic breast density and MRI FGT. There was a significant positive correlation between quantitative MRI FGT assessment and qualitative MRI FGT (r=0.809, n=60, P<0.001) and mammographic density assessment (r=0.805, n=60, P<0.001). There was a significant correlation between qualitative MRI FGT assessment and mammographic density assessment (r=0.725, n=60, P<0.001). The four qualitative assessment categories of FGT correlated with the calculated mean quantitative FGT (%) of 4.61% (95% CI, 0-12.3%), 8.74% (7.3-10.2%), 18.1% (15.1-21.1%), 37.4% (29.5-45.3%). Quantitative measures of FGT (%) were computed with data derived from breast MRI and correlated significantly with conventional qualitative assessments. This quantitative technique may prove to be a valuable tool in clinical use by providing computer generated standardized measurements with limited intra or inter-observer variability.

Conceptual compression discussion on a multi-linear (FTA) and systematic (FRAM) method in an offshore operation's accident modeling.

PubMed

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaei, Mohammad Mahdy; Gholamnia, Reza

2016-12-01

Risk assessment can be classified into two broad categories: traditional and modern. This paper is aimed at contrasting the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) as a modern approach with the fault tree analysis (FTA) as a traditional method, regarding assessing the risks of a complex system. Applied methodology by which the risk assessment is carried out, is presented in each approach. Also, FRAM network is executed with regard to nonlinear interaction of human and organizational levels to assess the safety of technological systems. The methodology is implemented for lifting structures deep offshore. The main finding of this paper is that the combined application of FTA and FRAM during risk assessment, could provide complementary perspectives and may contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of an incident. Finally, it is shown that coupling a FRAM network with a suitable quantitative method will result in a plausible outcome for a predefined accident scenario.

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

A novel eQTL-based analysis reveals the biology of breast cancer risk loci

PubMed Central

Li, Qiyuan; Seo, Ji-Heui; Stranger, Barbara; McKenna, Aaron; Pe'er, Itsik; LaFramboise, Thomas; Brown, Myles; Tyekucheva, Svitlana; Freedman, Matthew L.

2014-01-01

Summary Germline determinants of gene expression in tumors are less studied due to the complexity of transcript regulation caused by somatically acquired alterations. We performed expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) based analyses using the multi-level information provided in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Of the factors we measured, cis-acting eQTL saccounted for 1.2% of the total variation of tumor gene expression, while somatic copy number alteration and CpG methylation accounted for 7.3% and 3.3%, respectively. eQTL analyses of 15 previously reported breast cancer risk loci resulted in discovery of three variants that are significantly associated with transcript levels (FDR<0.1). In a novel trans- based analysis, an additional three risk loci were identified to act through ESR1, MYC, and KLF4. These findings provide a more comprehensive picture of gene expression determinants in breast cancer as well as insights into the underlying biology of breast cancer risk loci. PMID:23374354

Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Online Information Sharing About Risks: The Case of Organic Food.

PubMed

Hilverda, Femke; Kuttschreuter, Margôt

2018-03-23

Individuals have to make sense of an abundance of information to decide whether or not to purchase certain food products. One of the means to sense-making is information sharing. This article reports on a quantitative study examining online information sharing behavior regarding the risks of organic food products. An online survey among 535 respondents was conducted in the Netherlands to examine the determinants of information sharing behavior, and their relationships. Structural equation modeling was applied to test both the measurement model and the structural model. Results showed that the intention to share information online about the risks of organic food was low. Conversations and email were the preferred channels to share information; of the social media Facebook stood out. The developed model was found to provide an adequate description of the data. It explained 41% of the variance in information sharing. Injunctive norms and outcome expectancies were most important in predicting online information sharing, followed by information-related determinants. Risk-perception-related determinants showed a significant, but weak, positive relationship with online information sharing. Implications for authorities communicating on risks associated with food are addressed. © 2018 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Causation mechanism analysis for haze pollution related to vehicle emission in Guangzhou, China by employing the fault tree approach.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Xu, Pingru; Qian, Yu

2016-05-01

Recently, China has frequently experienced large-scale, severe and persistent haze pollution due to surging urbanization and industrialization and a rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles and energy consumption. The vehicle emission due to the consumption of a large number of fossil fuels is no doubt a critical factor of the haze pollution. This work is focused on the causation mechanism of haze pollution related to the vehicle emission for Guangzhou city by employing the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method for the first time. With the establishment of the fault tree system of "Haze weather-Vehicle exhausts explosive emission", all of the important risk factors are discussed and identified by using this deductive FTA method. The qualitative and quantitative assessments of the fault tree system are carried out based on the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk factors. The study may provide a new simple and effective tool/strategy for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of haze pollution in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and can comprehensively and accurately evaluate occupational health risk caused by DMF.

Dietary patterns and risk of colorectal adenoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Godos, J; Bella, F; Torrisi, A; Sciacca, S; Galvano, F; Grosso, G

2016-12-01

Current evidence suggests that dietary patterns may play an important role in colorectal cancer risk. The present study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies exploring the association between dietary patterns and colorectal adenomas (a precancerous condition). Pubmed and EMBASE electronic databases were systematically searched to retrieve eligible studies. Only studies exploring the risk or association with colorectal adenomas for the highest versus lowest category of exposure to a posteriori dietary patterns were included in the quantitative analysis. Random-effects models were applied to calculate relative risks (RRs) of colorectal adenomas for high adherence to healthy or unhealthy dietary patterns. Statistical heterogeneity and publication bias were explored. Twelve studies were reviewed. Three studies explored a priori dietary patterns using scores identifying adherence to the Mediterranean, Paleolithic and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and reported an association with decreased colorectal adenoma risk. Two studies tested the association with colorectal adenomas between a posteriori dietary patterns showing lower odds of disease related to plant-based compared to meat-based dietary patterns. Seven studies identified 23 a posteriori dietary patterns and the analysis revealed that higher adherence to healthy and unhealthy dietary patterns was significantly associated risk of colorectal adenomas (RR = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.71, 0.94 and RR = 1.24, 95% confidence interval = 1.13, 1.35, respectively) with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicate that dietary patterns may be associated with the risk of colorectal adenomas. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Fasting insulin, insulin resistance and risk of hypertension in the general population: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Feng; Han, Lili; Hu, Dayi

2017-01-01

Studies on the association of fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance with subsequent risk of hypertension have yielded conflicting results. To quantitatively assess the association of fasting insulin concentrations or homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with incident hypertension in a general population by performing a meta-analysis. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases until August 31, 2016 for prospective observational studies investigating the elevated fasting insulin concentrations or HOMA-IR with subsequent risk of hypertension in the general population. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of hypertension was calculated for the highest versus the lowest category of fasting insulin or HOMA-IR. Eleven studies involving 10,230 hypertension cases were identified from 55,059 participants. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled adjusted RR of hypertension was 1.54 (95% CI 1.34-1.76) for fasting insulin concentrations and 1.43 (95% CI 1.27-1.62) for HOMA-IR comparing the highest to the lowest category. Subgroup analysis results showed that the association of fasting insulin concentrations with subsequent risk of hypertension seemed more pronounced in women (RR 2.07; 95% CI 1.19-3.60) than in men (RR 1.48; 95% CI 1.17-1.88). This meta-analysis suggests that elevated fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance as estimated by homeostasis model assessment is independently associated with an exacerbated risk of hypertension in the general population. Early intervention of hyperinsulinemia or insulin resistance may help clinicians to identify the high risk of hypertensive population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale: application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2016-02-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in a Portuguese municipality (Loures), as well as the quantitative landslide risk analysis computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the economic value of the buildings. The hazard was assessed by combining the spatiotemporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides. The physical vulnerability assessment was based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area, and the answers' variability was assessed with standard deviation. The average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site, the inventory of which was listed on the field. The economic value was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach, and the risk was computed for different landslide magnitudes and different spatiotemporal probabilities. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high-magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 m landslide depths. However, the highest risk was found for the landslides that are 3 m deep, because these landslides combine a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Genetic and Transcriptomic Bases of Intestinal Epithelial Barrier Dysfunction in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Vancamelbeke, Maaike; Vanuytsel, Tim; Farré, Ricard; Verstockt, Sare; Ferrante, Marc; Van Assche, Gert; Rutgeerts, Paul; Schuit, Frans; Vermeire, Séverine; Arijs, Ingrid; Cleynen, Isabelle

2017-10-01

Intestinal barrier defects are common in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). To identify which components could underlie these changes, we performed an in-depth analysis of epithelial barrier genes in IBD. A set of 128 intestinal barrier genes was selected. Polygenic risk scores were generated based on selected barrier gene variants that were associated with Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) in our study. Gene expression was analyzed using microarray and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Influence of barrier gene variants on expression was studied by cis-expression quantitative trait loci mapping and comparing patients with low- and high-risk scores. Barrier risk scores were significantly higher in patients with IBD than controls. At single-gene level, the associated barrier single-nucleotide polymorphisms were most significantly enriched in PTGER4 for CD and HNF4A for UC. As a group, the regulating proteins were most enriched for CD and UC. Expression analysis showed that many epithelial barrier genes were significantly dysregulated in active CD and UC, with overrepresentation of mucus layer genes. In uninflamed CD ileum and IBD colon, most barrier gene levels restored to normal, except for MUC1 and MUC4 that remained persistently increased compared with controls. Expression levels did not depend on cis-regulatory variants nor combined genetic risk. We found genetic and transcriptomic dysregulations of key epithelial barrier genes and components in IBD. Of these, we believe that mucus genes, in particular MUC1 and MUC4, play an essential role in the pathogenesis of IBD and could represent interesting targets for treatment.

A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.

2002-01-01

This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

Aerosol preparation of intact lipoproteins

DOEpatents

Benner, W Henry [Danville, CA; Krauss, Ronald M [Berkeley, CA; Blanche, Patricia J [Berkeley, CA

2012-01-17

A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

Fractal mechanisms and heart rate dynamics. Long-range correlations and their breakdown with disease

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, C. K.; Havlin, S.; Hausdorff, J. M.; Mietus, J. E.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

1995-01-01

Under healthy conditions, the normal cardiac (sinus) interbeat interval fluctuates in a complex manner. Quantitative analysis using techniques adapted from statistical physics reveals the presence of long-range power-law correlations extending over thousands of heartbeats. This scale-invariant (fractal) behavior suggests that the regulatory system generating these fluctuations is operating far from equilibrium. In contrast, it is found that for subjects at high risk of sudden death (e.g., congestive heart failure patients), these long-range correlations break down. Application of fractal scaling analysis and related techniques provides new approaches to assessing cardiac risk and forecasting sudden cardiac death, as well as motivating development of novel physiologic models of systems that appear to be heterodynamic rather than homeostatic.

Levels, sources and probabilistic health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the agricultural soils from sites neighboring suburban industries in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tong, Ruipeng; Yang, Xiaoyi; Su, Hanrui; Pan, Yue; Zhang, Qiuzhuo; Wang, Juan; Long, Mingce

2018-03-01

The levels, sources and quantitative probabilistic health risks for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in agricultural soils in the vicinity of power, steel and petrochemical plants in the suburbs of Shanghai are discussed. The total concentration of 16 PAHs in the soils ranges from 223 to 8214ng g -1 . The sources of PAHs were analyzed by both isomeric ratios and a principal component analysis-multiple linear regression method. The results indicate that PAHs mainly originated from the incomplete combustion of coal and oil. The probabilistic risk assessments for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks posed by PAHs in soils with adult farmers as concerned receptors were quantitatively calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimated total carcinogenic risks (TCR) for the agricultural soils has a 45% possibility of exceeding the acceptable threshold value (10 -6 ), indicating potential adverse health effects. However, all non-carcinogenic risks are below the threshold value. Oral intake is the dominant exposure pathway, accounting for 77.7% of TCR, while inhalation intake is negligible. The three PAHs with the highest contribution for TCR are BaP (64.35%), DBA (17.56%) and InP (9.06%). Sensitivity analyses indicate that exposure frequency has the greatest impact on the total risk uncertainty, followed by the exposure dose through oral intake and exposure duration. These results indicate that it is essential to manage the health risks of PAH-contaminated agricultural soils in the vicinity of typical industries in megacities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Functional-analytical capabilities of GIS technology in the study of water use risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevidimova, O. G.; Yankovich, E. P.; Yankovich, K. S.

2015-02-01

Regional security aspects of economic activities are of great importance for legal regulation in environmental management. This has become a critical issue due to climate change, especially in regions where severe climate conditions have a great impact on almost all types of natural resource uses. A detailed analysis of climate and hydrological situation in Tomsk Oblast considering water use risks was carried out. Based on developed author's techniques an informational and analytical database was created using ArcGIS software platform, which combines statistical (quantitative) and spatial characteristics of natural hazards and socio-economic factors. This system was employed to perform areal zoning according to the degree of water use risks involved.

A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

Mathematically , Jorion’s concept of VaR looks like this: ( > ) ≤ 1 − (2) where, = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=ÅÜ...presents three models for calculating VaR. The local-valuation method determines the value of a portfolio once and uses mathematical derivatives...management. In the insurance industry, actuarial data is applied to model risk and risk capital reserves are “held” to cover the expected values for

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Considerations in deriving quantitative cancer criteria for inorganic arsenic exposure via inhalation.

PubMed

Lewis, Ari S; Beyer, Leslie A; Zu, Ke

2015-01-01

The inhalation unit risk (IUR) that currently exists in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System was developed in 1984 based on studies examining the relationship between respiratory cancer and arsenic exposure in copper smelters from two US locations: the copper smelter in Anaconda, Montana, and the American Smelting And Refining COmpany (ASARCO) smelter in Tacoma, Washington. Since US EPA last conducted its assessment, additional data have become available from epidemiology and mechanistic studies. In addition, the California Air Resources Board, Texas Commission of Environmental Quality, and Dutch Expert Committee on Occupational Safety have all conducted new risk assessments. All three analyses, which calculated IURs based on respiratory/lung cancer mortality, generated IURs that are lower (i.e., less restrictive) than the current US EPA value of 4.3×10(-3) (μg/m(3))(-1). The IURs developed by these agencies, which vary more than 20-fold, are based on somewhat different studies and use different methodologies to address uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Despite these differences, all were developed based on a cumulative exposure metric assuming a low-dose linear dose-response relationship. In this paper, we contrast and compare the analyses conducted by these agencies and critically evaluate strengths and limitations inherent in the data and methodologies used to develop quantitative risk estimates. In addition, we consider how these data could be best used to assess risk at much lower levels of arsenic in air, such as those experienced by the general public. Given that the mode of action for arsenic supports a threshold effect, and epidemiological evidence suggests that the arsenic concentration in air is a reliable predictor of lung/respiratory cancer risk, we developed a quantitative cancer risk analysis using a nonlinear threshold model. Applying a nonlinear model to occupational data, we established points of departure based on both cumulative exposure (μg/m(3)-years) to arsenic and arsenic concentration (μg/m(3)) via inhalation. Using these values, one can assess the lifetime risk of respiratory cancer mortality associated with ambient air concentrations of arsenic for the general US population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

2017-09-01

The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

Quantitative risk assessment of CO2 transport by pipelines--a review of uncertainties and their impacts.

PubMed

Koornneef, Joris; Spruijt, Mark; Molag, Menso; Ramírez, Andrea; Turkenburg, Wim; Faaij, André

2010-05-15

A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO(2) pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperature, section length, diameter, orifice size, type and direction of release, meteorological conditions, jet diameter, vapour mass fraction in the release and the dose-effect relationship for CO(2). A sensitivity analysis with these parameters is performed using release, dispersion and impact models. The results show that the knowledge gaps and uncertainties have a large effect on the accuracy of the assessed risks of CO(2) pipelines. In this study it is found that the individual risk contour can vary between 0 and 204 m from the pipeline depending on assumptions made. In existing studies this range is found to be between <1m and 7.2 km. Mitigating the relevant risks is part of current practice, making them controllable. It is concluded that QRA for CO(2) pipelines can be improved by validation of release and dispersion models for high-pressure CO(2) releases, definition and adoption of a universal dose-effect relationship and development of a good practice guide for QRAs for CO(2) pipelines. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QbD for pediatric oral lyophilisates development: risk assessment followed by screening and optimization.

PubMed

Casian, Tibor; Iurian, Sonia; Bogdan, Catalina; Rus, Lucia; Moldovan, Mirela; Tomuta, Ioan

2017-12-01

This study proposed the development of oral lyophilisates with respect to pediatric medicine development guidelines, by applying risk management strategies and DoE as an integrated QbD approach. Product critical quality attributes were overviewed by generating Ishikawa diagrams for risk assessment purposes, considering process, formulation and methodology related parameters. Failure Mode Effect Analysis was applied to highlight critical formulation and process parameters with an increased probability of occurrence and with a high impact on the product performance. To investigate the effect of qualitative and quantitative formulation variables D-optimal designs were used for screening and optimization purposes. Process parameters related to suspension preparation and lyophilization were classified as significant factors, and were controlled by implementing risk mitigation strategies. Both quantitative and qualitative formulation variables introduced in the experimental design influenced the product's disintegration time, mechanical resistance and dissolution properties selected as CQAs. The optimum formulation selected through Design Space presented ultra-fast disintegration time (5 seconds), a good dissolution rate (above 90%) combined with a high mechanical resistance (above 600 g load). Combining FMEA and DoE allowed the science based development of a product with respect to the defined quality target profile by providing better insights on the relevant parameters throughout development process. The utility of risk management tools in pharmaceutical development was demonstrated.

Quantifying the Risk of Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Due to Consumption of Domestically Produced Lamb in the United States.

PubMed

Guo, Miao; Mishra, Abhinav; Buchanan, Robert L; Dubey, Jitender P; Hill, Dolores E; Gamble, H Ray; Pradhan, Abani K

2016-07-01

Toxoplasma gondii is a prevalent protozoan parasite worldwide. Human toxoplasmosis is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States, and meat products have been identified as an important source of T. gondii infections in humans. The goal of this study was to develop a farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment model to predict the public health burden in the United States associated with consumption of U.S. domestically produced lamb. T. gondii prevalence in market lambs was pooled from the 2011 National Animal Health Monitoring System survey, and the concentration of the infectious life stage (bradyzoites) was calculated in the developed model. A log-linear regression and an exponential doseresponse model were used to model the reduction of T. gondii during home cooking and to predict the probability of infection, respectively. The mean probability of infection per serving of lamb was estimated to be 1.5 cases per 100,000 servings, corresponding to ∼6,300 new infections per year in the U.S. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we identified cooking as the most effective method to influence human health risk. This study provided a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for T. gondii infection through consumption of lamb and quantified the infection risk and public health burden associated with lamb consumption.

Endotoxin exposure and lung cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the published literature on agriculture and cotton textile workers.

PubMed

Lenters, Virissa; Basinas, Ioannis; Beane-Freeman, Laura; Boffetta, Paolo; Checkoway, Harvey; Coggon, David; Portengen, Lützen; Sim, Malcolm; Wouters, Inge M; Heederik, Dick; Vermeulen, Roel

2010-04-01

To examine the association between exposure to endotoxins and lung cancer risk by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies of workers in the cotton textile and agricultural industries; industries known for high exposure levels of endotoxins. Risk estimates were extracted from studies published before 2009 that met predefined quality criteria, including 8 cohort, 1 case-cohort, and 2 case-control studies of cotton textile industry workers, and 15 cohort and 2 case-control studies of agricultural workers. Summary risk estimates were calculated using random effects meta-analyses. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored through subgroup analyses. The summary risk of lung cancer was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for textile workers and 0.62 (0.52-0.75) for agricultural workers. The relative risk of lung cancer was below 1.0 for most subgroups defined according to sex, study design, outcome, smoking adjustment, and geographic area. Two studies provided quantitative estimates of endotoxin exposure and both studies tended to support a dose-dependent protective effect of endotoxins on lung cancer risk. Despite several limitations, this meta-analysis based on high-quality studies adds weight to the hypothesis that occupational exposure to endotoxin in cotton textile production and agriculture is protective against lung cancer.

76 FR 58509 - Release of Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

... ISA) provides support for the development of quantitative assessments of risk and exposure for health... conclusions presented in the First Draft ISA provide support for the development of quantitative assessments...

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

A tale of two climbers: hypothermia, death, and survival on Mount Everest.

PubMed

Moore, G W Kent; Semple, John L

2012-03-01

Hypothermia is an acknowledged risk for those who venture into high altitude regions. There is however little quantitative information on this risk that can be used to implement mitigation strategies. Here we provide an analysis of the meteorological and hypothermic risk parameters, wind chill temperature, and facial frostbite time, during the spring 2006 Mount Everest climbing season. This season was marked by two high profile events where a solo climber was forced to spend the night in highly exposed conditions near the summit. One climber survived, while the other did not. Although this retrospective examination of two individual cases has admittedly a small sample size, and there are other factors that undoubtedly contributed to the difference in outcomes, we show that wind chill temperature and facial frostbite time experienced by the two climbers were dramatically different. In particular, the climber who did not survive experienced conditions that were approximately one standard deviation more severe that usual for that time of the year; while the climber who survived experienced conditions that were approximately one standard deviation less severe then usual. This suggests that the environmental conditions associated with hypothermia played an important role in the outcomes. This report confirms the importance of providing quantitative guidance to climbers as the risk of hypothermia on high mountains.

Balancing the pros and cons of GMOs: socio-scientific argumentation in pre-service teacher education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cinici, Ayhan

2016-07-01

This study investigates the role of the discursive process in the act of scientific knowledge building. Specifically, it links scientific knowledge building to risk perception of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). To this end, this study designed and implemented a three-stage argumentation programme giving pre-service teachers (PSTs) the opportunity to consider, discuss and construct shared decisions about GMOs. The study involved 101 third-year PSTs from two different classes, randomly divided into control and experimental groups. The study utilised both quantitative and qualitative methods. During the quantitative phase, researchers administered a pre- and post-intervention scale to measure both groups' risk perception of GMOs. During the qualitative phase, data were collected from the experimental group alone through individual and group reports and an open-ended questionnaire. T-test results showed a statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups' risk perception of GMOs. Qualitative analysis also revealed differences, for example, in PSTs' weighing of the pros and cons of scientific research demonstrating positive results of GMOs. In addition, PSTs' acceptance of GMOs increased. Consequently, this study suggests that developing familiarity with scientific enterprise may play an effective role in adopting a scientific perspective as well as a more balanced risk perception of GMOs.

Quantitative trait loci at the 11q23.3 chromosomal region related to dyslipidemia in the population of Andhra Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Pranavchand, Rayabarapu; Reddy, Battini Mohan

2017-06-13

Given the characteristic atherogenic dyslipidemia of south Indian population and crucial role of APOA1, APOC3, APOA4 and APOA5 genes clustered in 11q23.3 chromosomal region in regulating lipoprotein metabolism and cholesterol homeostasis, a large number of recently identified variants are to be explored for their role in regulating the serum lipid parameters among south Indians. Using fluidigm SNP genotyping platform, a prioritized set of 96 SNPs of the 11q23.3 chromosomal region were genotyped on 516 individuals from Hyderabad, India, and its vicinity and aged >45 years. The linear regression analysis of the individual lipid traits viz., TC, LDLC, HDLC, VLDL and TG with each of the 78 SNPs that confirm to HWE and with minor allele frequency > 1%, suggests 23 of those to be significantly associated (p ≤ 0.05) with at least one of these quantitative traits. Most importantly, the variant rs632153 is involved in elevating TC, LDLC, TG and VLDLs and probably playing a crucial role in the manifestation of dyslipidemia. Additionally, another three SNPs rs633389, rs2187126 and rs1263163 are found risk conferring to dyslipidemia by elevating LDLC and TC levels in the present population. Further, the ROC (receiver operating curve) analysis for the risk scores and dyslipidemia status yielded a significant area under curve (AUC) = 0.675, suggesting high discriminative power of the risk variants towards the condition. The interaction analysis suggests rs10488699-rs2187126 pair of the BUD13 gene to confer significant risk (Interaction odds ratio = 14.38, P = 7.17 × 10 5 ) towards dyslipidemia by elevating the TC levels (β = 37.13, p = 6.614 × 10 5 ). On the other hand, the interaction between variants of APOA1 gene and BUD13 and/or ZPR1 regulatory genes at this region are associated with elevated TG and VLDL. The variants at 11q23.3 chromosomal region seem to determine the quantitative lipid traits and in turn dyslipidemia in the population of Hyderabad. Particularly, the variants rs632153, rs633389, rs2187126 and rs1263163 might be risk conferring to dyslipidemia by elevating LDLC and TC levels, while the variants of APOC3 and APOA1 genes might be the genetic determinants of elevated triglycerides in the present population.

Presenting risk information to people with diabetes: evaluating effects and preferences for different formats by a web-based randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Edwards, Adrian; Thomas, Richard; Williams, Rhys; Ellner, Andrew L; Brown, Polly; Elwyn, Glyn

2006-11-01

Web-based patient information is widespread and information on the benefits and risks of treatments is often difficult to understand. We therefore evaluated different risk presentation formats - numerical, graphical and others - addressing the pros and cons of tight control versus usual treatment approaches for diabetes. Randomised controlled trial. Online. Publicity disseminated via Diabetes UK. People with diabetes or their carers. Control group information based on British Medical Journal 'Best Treatments'. Four intervention groups received enhanced information resources: (1) detailed numerical information (absolute/relative risk, numbers-needed-to-treat); (2) 'anchoring' to familiar risks or descriptions; (3) graphical (bar charts, thermometer scales, crowd figure formats); (4) combination of 1-3. Decision conflict scale (DCS, a measure of uncertainty); satisfaction with information; further free text responses for qualitative content analysis. Seven hundred and ten people visited the website and were randomised. Five hundred and eight completed the questionnaire for quantitative data. Mean DCS scores ranged from 2.12 to 2.24 for the five randomisation groups, indicating neither clear delay or vacillation about decisions (usually DCS>2.5) nor tending to make decisions (usually DCS<2.0). There were no statistically significant effects of the interventions on DCS, or satisfaction with information. Two hundred and fifty-six participants provided responses for qualitative analysis: most found graphical representations helpful, specifically bar chart formats; many found other graphic formats (thermometer style, crowd figures/smiley faces) and 'anchoring' information unhelpful, and indicated information overload. Many negative experiences with healthcare indicate a challenging context for effective information provision and decision support. Online evaluation of different risk representation formats was feasible. There was a lack of intervention effects on quantitative outcomes, perhaps reflecting already well-informed participants from the Diabetes UK patient organisation. The large qualitative dataset included many comments about what participants found helpful as formats for communicating risk information. These findings assist the design of online decision aids and the representation of risk information. The challenge is to provide more information, in appropriate and clear formats, but without risking information overload. Interactive web designs hold much promise to achieve this.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk

EPA Science Inventory

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the ne...

Design features of graphs in health risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ancker, Jessica S; Senathirajah, Yalini; Kukafka, Rita; Starren, Justin B

2006-01-01

This review describes recent experimental and focus group research on graphics as a method of communication about quantitative health risks. Some of the studies discussed in this review assessed effect of graphs on quantitative reasoning, others assessed effects on behavior or behavioral intentions, and still others assessed viewers' likes and dislikes. Graphical features that improve the accuracy of quantitative reasoning appear to differ from the features most likely to alter behavior or intentions. For example, graphs that make part-to-whole relationships available visually may help people attend to the relationship between the numerator (the number of people affected by a hazard) and the denominator (the entire population at risk), whereas graphs that show only the numerator appear to inflate the perceived risk and may induce risk-averse behavior. Viewers often preferred design features such as visual simplicity and familiarity that were not associated with accurate quantitative judgments. Communicators should not assume that all graphics are more intuitive than text; many of the studies found that patients' interpretations of the graphics were dependent upon expertise or instruction. Potentially useful directions for continuing research include interactions with educational level and numeracy and successful ways to communicate uncertainty about risk.

Association between physical activity and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qiu, Shanhu; Cai, Xue; Sun, Zilin; Li, Ling; Zügel, Martina; Steinacker, Jürgen Michael; Schumann, Uwe

2017-09-01

Increased physical activity (PA) is a key element in the management of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD); however, its association with NAFLD risk has not been systematically assessed. This meta-analysis of observational studies was to quantify this association with dose-response analysis. Electronic databases were searched to January 2017 for studies of adults reporting the risk of NAFLD in relation to PA with cohort or case-control designs. Studies that reported sex-specific data were included as separate studies. The overall risk estimates were pooled using a random-effects model, and the dose-response analysis was conducted to shape the quantitative relationship. A total of 6 cohort studies from 5 articles with 32,657 incident NAFLD cases from 142,781 participants, and 4 case-control studies from 3 articles with 382 NAFLD cases and 302 controls were included. Compared with the lowest PA level, the highest PA level was associated with a risk reduction of NAFLD in cohort [RR (risk ratio) 0.79, 95% CI (confidence interval) 0.71-0.89] and case-control studies [OR (odds ratio) 0.43, 95% CI 0.27-0.68]. For cohort studies, both highest and moderate PA levels were superior to the light one in lowering NAFLD risk ( p for interaction = 0.006 and 0.02, respectively), and there was a log-linear dose-response association ( p for nonlinearity = 0.10) between PA and NAFLD risk [RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.73-0.91) for every 500 metabolic equivalent (MET)-minutes/week increment in PA]. Increased PA may lead to a reduced risk of NAFLD in a dose-dependent manner, and the current guideline-recommended minimum PA level that approximates to 500 MET-minutes/week is able to moderately reduce the NAFLD risk.

A comparison of two prospective risk analysis methods: Traditional FMEA and a modified healthcare FMEA.

PubMed

Rah, Jeong-Eun; Manger, Ryan P; Yock, Adam D; Kim, Gwe-Ya

2016-12-01

To examine the abilities of a traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and modified healthcare FMEA (m-HFMEA) scoring methods by comparing the degree of congruence in identifying high risk failures. The authors applied two prospective methods of the quality management to surface image guided, linac-based radiosurgery (SIG-RS). For the traditional FMEA, decisions on how to improve an operation were based on the risk priority number (RPN). The RPN is a product of three indices: occurrence, severity, and detectability. The m-HFMEA approach utilized two indices, severity and frequency. A risk inventory matrix was divided into four categories: very low, low, high, and very high. For high risk events, an additional evaluation was performed. Based upon the criticality of the process, it was decided if additional safety measures were needed and what they comprise. The two methods were independently compared to determine if the results and rated risks matched. The authors' results showed an agreement of 85% between FMEA and m-HFMEA approaches for top 20 risks of SIG-RS-specific failure modes. The main differences between the two approaches were the distribution of the values and the observation that failure modes (52, 54, 154) with high m-HFMEA scores do not necessarily have high FMEA-RPN scores. In the m-HFMEA analysis, when the risk score is determined, the basis of the established HFMEA Decision Tree™ or the failure mode should be more thoroughly investigated. m-HFMEA is inductive because it requires the identification of the consequences from causes, and semi-quantitative since it allows the prioritization of high risks and mitigation measures. It is therefore a useful tool for the prospective risk analysis method to radiotherapy.

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

PubMed

Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

2018-05-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of major hazards and its application in urban planning: a case study.

PubMed

Zhou, Yafei; Liu, Mao

2012-03-01

With the rapid development of industry in China, the number of establishments that are proposed or under construction is increasing year by year, and many are industries that handle flammable, explosive, toxic, harmful, and dangerous substances. Accidents such as fire, explosion, and toxic diffusion inevitably happen. Accidents resulting from these major hazards in cities cause a large number of casualties and property losses. It is increasingly important to analyze the risk of major hazards in cities realistically and to suitably plan and utilize the surrounding land based on the risk analysis results, thereby reducing the hazards. A theoretical system for risk assessment of major hazards in cities is proposed in this article, and the major hazard risk for the entire city is analyzed quantitatively. Risks of various major accidents are considered together, superposition effect is analyzed, individual risk contours of the entire city are drawn out, and the level of risk in the city is assessed using "as low as reasonably practicable" guidelines. After the entire city's individual risk distribution is obtained, risk zones are divided according to corresponding individual risk value of HSE, and land-use planning suggestions are proposed. Finally, a city in China is used as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process of the city's major hazard and its application in urban land-use planning. The proposed method has a certain theoretical and practical significance in establishing and improving risk analysis of major hazard and urban land-use planning. On the one hand, major urban public risk is avoided; further, the land is utilized in the best possible way in order to obtain the maximum benefit from its use. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overcoming confirmation bias in causal attribution: a case study of antibiotic resistance risks.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony; Popken, Douglas A

2008-10-01

When they do not use formal quantitative risk assessment methods, many scientists (like other people) make mistakes and exhibit biases in reasoning about causation, if-then relations, and evidence. Decision-related conclusions or causal explanations are reached prematurely based on narrative plausibility rather than adequate factual evidence. Then, confirming evidence is sought and emphasized, but disconfirming evidence is ignored or discounted. This tendency has serious implications for health-related public policy discussions and decisions. We provide examples occurring in antimicrobial health risk assessments, including a case study of a recently reported positive relation between virginiamycin (VM) use in poultry and risk of resistance to VM-like (streptogramin) antibiotics in humans. This finding has been used to argue that poultry consumption causes increased resistance risks, that serious health impacts may result, and therefore use of VM in poultry should be restricted. However, the original study compared healthy vegetarians to hospitalized poultry consumers. Our examination of the same data using conditional independence tests for potential causality reveals that poultry consumption acted as a surrogate for hospitalization in this study. After accounting for current hospitalization status, no evidence remains supporting a causal relationship between poultry consumption and increased streptogramin resistance. This example emphasizes both the importance and the practical possibility of analyzing and presenting quantitative risk information using data analysis techniques (such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and conditional independence tests) that are as free as possible from potential selection, confirmation, and modeling biases.

Unraveling the thrombophilia paradox: from hypercoagulability to the prothrombotic state.

PubMed

Baglin, T

2010-02-01

The thrombophilia paradox whereby thrombophilia testing identifies defects associated with an increased risk of a first venous thrombosis but not of a particularly high risk of recurrence is likely the result of limitations imposed by a limited dichotomous testing strategy compounded by test inaccuracy and imprecision. Consequently, the observed intermediate phenotype (defined by limited laboratory test results) is not fully concordant with the heritable genotype. The next generation of thrombophilia tests, which utilize either individual genomic analysis or global measurement of the composite plasma intermediate phenotype, may more accurately quantify the thrombophilic risk. In conjunction with clinical risk assessment a more quantitative measurement of hypercoagulability and definition of the prothrombotic state should facilitate transition of clinical management from a disease-focused to a more patient-focused strategy.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland.

PubMed

Cummins, E; Kennedy, R; Cormican, M

2010-01-15

Cryptosporidium species are protozoan parasites associated with gastro-intestinal illness. Following a number of high profile outbreaks worldwide, it has emerged as a parasite of major public health concern. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to evaluate the annual risk of infection from Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland. The assessment considers the potential initial contamination levels in raw water, oocyst removal and decontamination events following various process stages, including coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. A number of scenarios were analysed to represent potential risks from public water supplies, group water schemes and private wells. Where surface water is used additional physical and chemical water treatment is important in terms of reducing the risk to consumers. The simulated annual risk of illness for immunocompetent individuals was below 1 x 10(-4) per year (as set by the US EPA) except under extreme contamination events. The risk for immunocompromised individuals was 2-3 orders of magnitude greater for the scenarios analysed. The model indicates a reduced risk of infection from tap water that has undergone microfiltration, as this treatment is more robust in the event of high contamination loads. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of watershed protection and the importance of adequate coagulation/flocculation in conventional treatment. The frequency of failure of the treatment process is the most important parameter influencing human risk in conventional treatment. The model developed in this study may be useful for local authorities, government agencies and other stakeholders to evaluate the likely risk of infection given some basic input data on source water and treatment processes used. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Signal enhancement ratio (SER) quantified from breast DCE-MRI and breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shandong; Kurland, Brenda F.; Berg, Wendie A.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Jankowitz, Rachel C.; Sumkin, Jules; Gur, David

2015-03-01

Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended as an adjunct to mammography for women who are considered at elevated risk of developing breast cancer. As a key component of breast MRI, dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) uses a contrast agent to provide high intensity contrast between breast tissues, making it sensitive to tissue composition and vascularity. Breast DCE-MRI characterizes certain physiologic properties of breast tissue that are potentially related to breast cancer risk. Studies have shown that increased background parenchymal enhancement (BPE), which is the contrast enhancement occurring in normal cancer-unaffected breast tissues in post-contrast sequences, predicts increased breast cancer risk. Signal enhancement ratio (SER) computed from pre-contrast and post-contrast sequences in DCE-MRI measures change in signal intensity due to contrast uptake over time and is a measure of contrast enhancement kinetics. SER quantified in breast tumor has been shown potential as a biomarker for characterizing tumor response to treatments. In this work we investigated the relationship between quantitative measures of SER and breast cancer risk. A pilot retrospective case-control study was performed using a cohort of 102 women, consisting of 51 women who had diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer and 51 matched controls (by age and MRI date) with a unilateral biopsy-proven benign lesion. SER was quantified using fully-automated computerized algorithms and three SER-derived quantitative volume measures were compared between the cancer cases and controls using logistic regression analysis. Our preliminary results showed that SER is associated with breast cancer risk, after adjustment for the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS)-based mammographic breast density measures. This pilot study indicated that SER has potential for use as a risk factor for breast cancer risk assessment in women at elevated risk of developing breast cancer.

Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya.

PubMed

Rideout, Alasdair J R; Joshi, Neha P; Viergever, Karin M; Huxham, Mark; Briers, Robert A

2013-11-01

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

PubMed

Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

2005-05-01

Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

Predicting Team Performance through Human Behavioral Sensing and Quantitative Workflow Instrumentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-27

make risk-informed decisions during serious games . Statistical models of intra- game performance were developed to determine whether behaviors in...specific facets of the gameplay workflow were predictive of analytical performance and games outcomes. A study of over seventy instrumented teams revealed...more accurate game decisions. 2 Keywords: Humatics · Serious Games · Human-System Interaction · Instrumentation · Teamwork · Communication Analysis

Cluster analysis of bone microarchitecture from high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography demonstrates two separate phenotypes associated with high fracture risk in men and women.

PubMed

Edwards, M H; Robinson, D E; Ward, K A; Javaid, M K; Walker-Bone, K; Cooper, C; Dennison, E M

2016-07-01

Osteoporosis is a major healthcare problem which is conventionally assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). New technologies such as high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) also predict fracture risk. HRpQCT measures a number of bone characteristics that may inform specific patterns of bone deficits. We used cluster analysis to define different bone phenotypes and their relationships to fracture prevalence and areal bone mineral density (BMD). 177 men and 159 women, in whom fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment, underwent HRpQCT of the distal radius and femoral neck DXA. Five clusters were derived with two clusters associated with elevated fracture risk. "Cluster 1" contained 26 women (50.0% fractured) and 30 men (50.0% fractured) with a lower mean cortical thickness and cortical volumetric BMD, and in men only, a mean total and trabecular area more than the sex-specific cohort mean. "Cluster 2" contained 20 women (50.0% fractured) and 14 men (35.7% fractured) with a lower mean trabecular density and trabecular number than the sex-specific cohort mean. Logistic regression showed fracture rates in these clusters to be significantly higher than the lowest fracture risk cluster [5] (p<0.05). Mean femoral neck areal BMD was significantly lower than cluster 5 in women in cluster 1 and 2 (p<0.001 for both), and in men, in cluster 2 (p<0.001) but not 1 (p=0.220). In conclusion, this study demonstrates two distinct high risk clusters in both men and women which may differ in etiology and response to treatment. As cluster 1 in men does not have low areal BMD, these men may not be identified as high risk by conventional DXA alone. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

The Accuracy of Serum Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 for Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation After Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Lu; Wei, Chenchen; Deng, Linghui; Wang, Ziqiong; Song, Mengyuan; Xiong, Yao; Liu, Ming

2018-06-01

Hemorrhagic transformation is a serious complication of acute ischemic stroke, which may cause detrimental outcomes and the delayed use of anticoagulation therapy. Early predicting and identifying the patients at high risk of hemorrhagic transformation before clinical deterioration occurrence become a research priority. To study the value of plasma matrix metalloproteinase-9 predicting hemorrhagic transformation after ischemic stroke. We searched PubMed, Ovid, Cochrane Library, and other 2 Chinese databases to identify literatures published up to September 2017 and performed meta-analysis by STATA (version 12.0, StataCorp LP, College Station, TX). Twelve studies incorporating 1492 participants were included and 7 studies were included in the quantitative statistical analysis. The pooled sensitivity was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75%, 91%) and the pooled specificity was 79% (95% CI: 67%, 87%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .89 (95% CI .86, .91). Significant heterogeneity for all estimates value existed (all the P value < .05 and I 2  > 50%). There is no threshold effect with P value greater than .05 of the correlation coefficient. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis showed cut-off value and hemorrhagic subtype contributed to heterogeneity. Deeks' funnel plot indicated no significant publication bias for 7 quantitative analysis studies. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 has high predictive value for hemorrhagic transformation after acute ischemic stroke. It may be useful to test matrix metalloproteinase-9 to exclude patients at low risk of hemorrhage for precise treatment in the future clinical work. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

76 FR 50904 - Thiamethoxam; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-17

... exposure and risk. A separate assessment was done for clothianidin. i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute... not expected to pose a cancer risk, a quantitative dietary exposure assessment for the purposes of...-dietary sources of post application exposure to obtain an estimate of potential combined exposure. These...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling:• SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial Source Module as part...

Quantitative assessment of the relationship between Fas/FasL genes polymorphisms and head and neck cancer risk.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan-Feng; Jiang, Guang-Bin; Qin, Chuan-Qi; Liu, De-Xi; Hu, Ya-Jun; Zhou, Juan; Niu, Yu-Ming

2018-02-01

Molecular epidemiological studies have demonstrated a closer association between Fas/FasL polymorphisms and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk, and the results of these published studies were inconsistent. We therefore performed this meta-analysis to explore the associations between Fas/FasL polymorphisms and HNC risk. Four online databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI, and Wanfang) were searched. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CIs) were calculated to assess the association between Fas -670A>G, Fas -1377G>A, and FasL -844C>T polymorphisms and HNC risk. In addition, heterogeneity, accumulative/sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were conducted to check the statistical power. Overall, 9 related publications (20 independent case-control studies) involving 3179 patients and 4217 controls were identified. Significant association of protective effects was observed between FasL -844C>T polymorphism and HNC risk in codominant and dominant model models (CT vs CC: OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.79-1.00, P = .05, I = 38.3%, CT+TT vs CC: OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.98, P = .02, I = 35.8%). Furthermore, the similar protective effects were observed the subgroup analysis of in Asian population and population-based controls group. Our meta-analysis indicated that FasL -844C>T polymorphism plays a protective role against HNC development, but the Fas -670A>G and Fas -1377G>A polymorphisms maybe not associated with HNC risk.

Return on Scientific Investment - RoSI: a PMO dynamical index proposal for scientific projects performance evaluation and management.

PubMed

Caous, Cristofer André; Machado, Birajara; Hors, Cora; Zeh, Andrea Kaufmann; Dias, Cleber Gustavo; Amaro Junior, Edson

2012-01-01

To propose a measure (index) of expected risks to evaluate and follow up the performance analysis of research projects involving financial and adequate structure parameters for its development. A ranking of acceptable results regarding research projects with complex variables was used as an index to gauge a project performance. In order to implement this method the ulcer index as the basic model to accommodate the following variables was applied: costs, high impact publication, fund raising, and patent registry. The proposed structured analysis, named here as RoSI (Return on Scientific Investment) comprises a pipeline of analysis to characterize the risk based on a modeling tool that comprises multiple variables interacting in semi-quantitatively environments. This method was tested with data from three different projects in our Institution (projects A, B and C). Different curves reflected the ulcer indexes identifying the project that may have a minor risk (project C) related to development and expected results according to initial or full investment. The results showed that this model contributes significantly to the analysis of risk and planning as well as to the definition of necessary investments that consider contingency actions with benefits to the different stakeholders: the investor or donor, the project manager and the researchers.

Adherence to a Vegetarian Diet and Diabetes Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Lee, Yujin; Park, Kyong

2017-06-14

We quantitatively assessed the association between a vegetarian diet and diabetes risk using pooled estimates from observational studies. Electronic database searches for articles published from January 1980 to May 2016 were independently performed by two investigators, and 13 articles (14 studies) were identified. The pooled odds ratio (OR) for diabetes in vegetarians vs. non-vegetarians was 0.726 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.608, 0.867). In the subgroup analyses, this inverse association was stronger for the studies conducted in the Western Pacific region (OR 0.514, 95% CI: 0.304, 0.871) and Europe/North America (OR 0.756, 95% CI: 0.589, 0.971) than studies conducted in Southeast Asia (OR 0.888, 95% CI: 0.718, 1.099). No study had a substantial effect on the pooled effect size in the influence analysis, and the Egger's ( p = 0.465) and Begg's tests ( p = 0.584) revealed no publication bias. This meta-analysis indicates that a vegetarian diet is inversely associated with diabetes risk. Our results support the need for further investigations into the effects of the motivations for vegetarianism, the duration of the adherence to a vegetarian diet, and type of vegetarian on diabetes risk.

Fault and event tree analyses for process systems risk analysis: uncertainty handling formulations.

PubMed

Ferdous, Refaul; Khan, Faisal; Sadiq, Rehan; Amyotte, Paul; Veitch, Brian

2011-01-01

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a systematic approach for evaluating likelihood, consequences, and risk of adverse events. QRA based on event (ETA) and fault tree analyses (FTA) employs two basic assumptions. The first assumption is related to likelihood values of input events, and the second assumption is regarding interdependence among the events (for ETA) or basic events (for FTA). Traditionally, FTA and ETA both use crisp probabilities; however, to deal with uncertainties, the probability distributions of input event likelihoods are assumed. These probability distributions are often hard to come by and even if available, they are subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA assume that events (or basic events) are independent. In practice, these two assumptions are often unrealistic. This article focuses on handling uncertainty in a QRA framework of a process system. Fuzzy set theory and evidence theory are used to describe the uncertainties in the input event likelihoods. A method based on a dependency coefficient is used to express interdependencies of events (or basic events) in ETA and FTA. To demonstrate the approach, two case studies are discussed. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Incorporating concepts of inequality and inequity into health benefits analysis

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Chemerynski, Susan M; Tuchmann, Jessica L

2006-01-01

Background Although environmental policy decisions are often based in part on both risk assessment information and environmental justice concerns, formalized approaches for addressing inequality or inequity when estimating the health benefits of pollution control have been lacking. Inequality indicators that fulfill basic axioms and agree with relevant definitions and concepts in health benefits analysis and environmental justice analysis can allow for quantitative examination of efficiency-equality tradeoffs in pollution control policies. Methods To develop appropriate inequality indicators for health benefits analysis, we provide relevant definitions from the fields of risk assessment and environmental justice and consider the implications. We evaluate axioms proposed in past studies of inequality indicators and develop additional axioms relevant to this context. We survey the literature on previous applications of inequality indicators and evaluate five candidate indicators in reference to our proposed axioms. We present an illustrative pollution control example to determine whether our selected indicators provide interpretable information. Results and Conclusions We conclude that an inequality indicator for health benefits analysis should not decrease when risk is transferred from a low-risk to high-risk person, and that it should decrease when risk is transferred from a high-risk to low-risk person (Pigou-Dalton transfer principle), and that it should be able to have total inequality divided into its constituent parts (subgroup decomposability). We additionally propose that an ideal indicator should avoid value judgments about the relative importance of transfers at different percentiles of the risk distribution, incorporate health risk with evidence about differential susceptibility, include baseline distributions of risk, use appropriate geographic resolution and scope, and consider multiple competing policy alternatives. Given these criteria, we select the Atkinson index as the single indicator most appropriate for health benefits analysis, with other indicators useful for sensitivity analysis. Our illustrative pollution control example demonstrates how these indices can help a policy maker determine control strategies that are dominated from an efficiency and equality standpoint, those that are dominated for some but not all societal viewpoints on inequality averseness, and those that are on the optimal efficiency-equality frontier, allowing for more informed pollution control policies. PMID:16569243

Development of a software for quantitative evaluation radiotherapy target and organ-at-risk segmentation comparison.

PubMed

Kalpathy-Cramer, Jayashree; Awan, Musaddiq; Bedrick, Steven; Rasch, Coen R N; Rosenthal, David I; Fuller, Clifton D

2014-02-01

Modern radiotherapy requires accurate region of interest (ROI) inputs for plan optimization and delivery. Target delineation, however, remains operator-dependent and potentially serves as a major source of treatment delivery error. In order to optimize this critical, yet observer-driven process, a flexible web-based platform for individual and cooperative target delineation analysis and instruction was developed in order to meet the following unmet needs: (1) an open-source/open-access platform for automated/semiautomated quantitative interobserver and intraobserver ROI analysis and comparison, (2) a real-time interface for radiation oncology trainee online self-education in ROI definition, and (3) a source for pilot data to develop and validate quality metrics for institutional and cooperative group quality assurance efforts. The resultant software, Target Contour Testing/Instructional Computer Software (TaCTICS), developed using Ruby on Rails, has since been implemented and proven flexible, feasible, and useful in several distinct analytical and research applications.

QF-PCR as a substitute for karyotyping of cytotrophoblast for the analysis of chorionic villi: advantages and limitations from a cytogenetic retrospective audit of 44,727 first-trimester prenatal diagnoses.

PubMed

Grati, Francesca R; Malvestiti, Francesca; Grimi, Beatrice; Gaetani, Elisa; Di Meco, Anna Maria; Trotta, Anna; Liuti, Rosaria; Chinetti, Sara; Dulcetti, Francesca; Ruggeri, Anna Maria; Agrati, Cristina; Frascoli, Giuditta; Milani, Silvia; De Toffol, Simona; Martinoni, Lorenza; Paganini, Silvia; Marcato, Livia; Maggi, Federico; Simoni, Giuseppe

2013-05-01

Karyotyping on chorionic villous samples (CVS) includes the analysis of both cytotrophoblast (STC) and mesenchyme (LTC). This approach requires complex laboratory organization and trained technicians. The introduction of quantitative fluorescent polymerase chain reaction (QF-PCR) instead of conventional karyotyping in low-risk pregnancies opened its application in CVS analysis. Discordant QF-PCR and CVS cytogenetic results were reported, and strategies for CVS analysis were introduced to minimize this risk. The possibility to substitute the STC with QF-PCR was reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate benefits and limitations of the approach QF-PCR + LTC compared with the traditional method STC + LTC and to quantify the associated risks of false results. This study is based on a retrospective cytogenetic audit of CVS results (n = 44 727) generated by the STC + LTC analytic approach. False-negative risks related to true fetal mosaicism type IV, imprinting syndromes and maternal contamination in LTC were calculated. Compared with STC + LTC, QF-PCR + LTC approach is associated with a cumulative false-negative risk of ~1/3100-1/4400. Costs and reporting time of STC in a high-throughput cytogenetic lab are similar to a CE-IVD marked QF-PCR analysis. These results should be clearly highlighted in the pre-test counseling and extensively discussed with the couple prior to testing for informed consent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Little cigars, big cigars: omissions and commissions of harm and harm reduction information on the Internet.

PubMed

Dollar, Katherine M; Mix, Jacqueline M; Kozlowski, Lynn T

2008-05-01

We conducted a comparative analysis of "harm," "harm reduction," and "little cigar" information about cigars on 10 major English-language health Web sites. The sites were from governmental and nongovernmental organizations based in seven different countries and included "harm" and "harm reduction" information, discussions of little cigars, quantitative estimates of health risks, and qualifying behavioral characteristics (inhalation, number per day). Of the 10 Web sites, 7 offered statements explicitly indicating that cigars may be safer than cigarettes. None of the Web sites reviewed described that little cigars are likely as dangerous as cigarettes. Some Web sites provided quantitative estimates of health risks and extensive discussions of qualifying factors. Reading grade levels were higher than desirable. Extensive and complex information on the reduced risks of cigars compared with cigarettes is available on Web sites affiliated with prominent health organizations. Yet these sites fail to warn consumers that popular cigarette-like little cigars and cigarillos are likely to be just as dangerous as cigarettes, even for those who have never smoked cigarettes. Improvement of these Web sites is urgently needed to provide the public with high-quality health information.

Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2014-02-01

Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

Quantitative risk assessment of entry of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia through live cattle imported from northwestern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Woube, Yilkal Asfaw; Dibaba, Asseged Bogale; Tameru, Berhanu; Fite, Richard; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida; Demisse, Amsalu; Habtemariam, Tsegaye

2015-11-01

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a highly contagious bacterial disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony (SC) bovine biotype (MmmSC). It has been eradicated from many countries; however, the disease persists in many parts of Africa and Asia. CBPP is one of the major trade-restricting diseases of cattle in Ethiopia. In this quantitative risk assessment the OIE concept of zoning was adopted to assess the entry of CBPP into an importing country when up to 280,000 live cattle are exported every year from the northwestern proposed disease free zone (DFZ) of Ethiopia. To estimate the level of risk, a six-tiered risk pathway (scenario tree) was developed, evidences collected and equations generated. The probability of occurrence of the hazard at each node was modelled as a probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation (@RISK software) at 10,000 iterations to account for uncertainty and variability. The uncertainty and variability of data points surrounding the risk estimate were further quantified by sensitivity analysis. In this study a single animal destined for export from the northwestern DFZ of Ethiopia has a CBPP infection probability of 4.76×10(-6) (95% CI=7.25×10(-8) 1.92×10(-5)). The probability that at least one infected animal enters an importing country in one year is 0.53 (90% CI=0.042-0.97). The expected number of CBPP infected animals exported any given year is 1.28 (95% CI=0.021-5.42). According to the risk estimate, an average of 2.73×10(6) animals (90% CI=10,674-5.9×10(6)) must be exported to get the first infected case. By this account it would, on average, take 10.15 years (90% CI=0.24-23.18) for the first infected animal to be included in the consignment. Sensitivity analysis revealed that prevalence and vaccination had the highest impact on the uncertainty and variability of the overall risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health risks from exposure to Legionella in reclaimed water aerosols: Toilet flushing, spray irrigation, and cooling towers.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Hamilton, Mark T; Johnson, William; Jjemba, Patrick; Bukhari, Zia; LeChevallier, Mark; Haas, Charles N

2018-05-01

The use of reclaimed water brings new challenges for the water industry in terms of maintaining water quality while increasing sustainability. Increased attention has been devoted to opportunistic pathogens, especially Legionella pneumophila, due to its growing importance as a portion of the waterborne disease burden in the United States. Infection occurs when a person inhales a mist containing Legionella bacteria. The top three uses for reclaimed water (cooling towers, spray irrigation, and toilet flushing) that generate aerosols were evaluated for Legionella health risks in reclaimed water using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks are compared using data from nineteen United States reclaimed water utilities measured with culture-based methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and ethidium-monoazide-qPCR. Median toilet flushing annual infection risks exceeded 10 -4 considering multiple toilet types, while median clinical severity infection risks did not exceed this value. Sprinkler and cooling tower risks varied depending on meteorological conditions and operational characteristics such as drift eliminator performance. However, the greatest differences between risk scenarios were due to 1) the dose response model used (infection or clinical severity infection) 2) population at risk considered (residential or occupational) and 3) differences in laboratory analytical method. Theoretical setback distances necessary to achieve a median annual infection risk level of 10 -4 are proposed for spray irrigation and cooling towers. In both cooling tower and sprinkler cases, Legionella infection risks were non-trivial at potentially large setback distances, and indicate other simultaneous management practices could be needed to manage risks. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential factors for variability in risks were the concentration of Legionella and aerosol partitioning and/or efficiency across all models, highlighting the importance of strategies to manage Legionella occurrence in reclaimed water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding outbreaks of waterborne infectious disease: quantitative microbial risk assessment vs. epidemiology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drinking water contaminated with microbial pathogens can cause outbreaks of infectious disease, and these outbreaks are traditionally studied using epidemiologic methods. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can predict – and therefore help prevent – such outbreaks, but it has never been r...

Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Engine Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. uman target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-hum...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

75 FR 22817 - Emerging Infectious Diseases: Evaluation to Implementation for Transfusion and Transplantation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-30

... Quantitative Risk Assessment: Blood Safety and Availability; Public Workshops AGENCY: Food and Drug... and Transplantation Safety'' (EID public workshop) and ``Quantitative Risk Assessment: Blood Safety... Research (HFM-302), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, Suite 550N, Rockville, MD 20852-1448...

Use of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to Improve Interpretation of a Recreational Water Epidemiological Study

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted a supplemental water quality monitoring study and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to complement the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recreational Water study at Boquerón ...

Kidney stones may increase the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: A PRISMA-Compliant meta-analysis.

PubMed

Peng, Jian-Ping; Zheng, Hang

2017-08-01

We aimed to quantitatively assess the potential relationship between kidney stones and coronary heart disease or stroke. A meta-analysis was conducted on eligibly studies published before 31 May 2016 in PubMed or Embase. The data were pooled, and the relationship was assessed by the random-effect model with inverse variance-weighted procedure. The results were expressed as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Eight studies of 11 cohorts (n = 11) were included in our analysis with 3,658,360 participants and 157,037 cases. We found that a history of kidney stones was associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) (RR = 1.24; 95%CI: 1.14-1.36; I = 79.0%, n = 11); similar effect on myocardial infarction, a serious condition of CHD, was observed (RR = 1.24; 95%CI: 1.10-1.40; I = 80.4%, n = 8). We also found that a history of kidney stones may increase the risk of stroke (RR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.06-1.38; I = 54.7%, n = 4). In subgroup analysis, the risk of coronary heart disease was higher in men (RR = 1.23, 95%CI: 1.02-1.49) while the risk for stroke was higher in women (RR = 1.12; 95%CI: 1.03-1.21). No obvious publications bias was detected (Egger test: P = .47). Kidney stones are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the effect may differ by sex.

Project delay analysis of HRSG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Novega, A. S.; Rosyid, D. M.; Suntoyo

2017-08-01

Completion of HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) fabrication project sometimes is not sufficient with the targeted time written on the contract. The delay on fabrication process can cause some disadvantages for fabricator, including forfeit payment, delay on HRSG construction process up until HRSG trials delay. In this paper, the author is using semi quantitative on HRSG pressure part fabrication delay with configuration plant 1 GT (Gas Turbine) + 1 HRSG + 1 STG (Steam Turbine Generator) using bow-tie analysis method. Bow-tie analysis method is a combination from FTA (Fault tree analysis) and ETA (Event tree analysis) to develop the risk matrix of HRSG. The result from FTA analysis is use as a threat for preventive measure. The result from ETA analysis is use as impact from fabrication delay.

The SAM framework: modeling the effects of management factors on human behavior in risk analysis.

PubMed

Murphy, D M; Paté-Cornell, M E

1996-08-01

Complex engineered systems, such as nuclear reactors and chemical plants, have the potential for catastrophic failure with disastrous consequences. In recent years, human and management factors have been recognized as frequent root causes of major failures in such systems. However, classical probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) techniques do not account for the underlying causes of these errors because they focus on the physical system and do not explicitly address the link between components' performance and organizational factors. This paper describes a general approach for addressing the human and management causes of system failure, called the SAM (System-Action-Management) framework. Beginning with a quantitative risk model of the physical system, SAM expands the scope of analysis to incorporate first the decisions and actions of individuals that affect the physical system. SAM then links management factors (incentives, training, policies and procedures, selection criteria, etc.) to those decisions and actions. The focus of this paper is on four quantitative models of action that describe this last relationship. These models address the formation of intentions for action and their execution as a function of the organizational environment. Intention formation is described by three alternative models: a rational model, a bounded rationality model, and a rule-based model. The execution of intentions is then modeled separately. These four models are designed to assess the probabilities of individual actions from the perspective of management, thus reflecting the uncertainties inherent to human behavior. The SAM framework is illustrated for a hypothetical case of hazardous materials transportation. This framework can be used as a tool to increase the safety and reliability of complex technical systems by modifying the organization, rather than, or in addition to, re-designing the physical system.

Quantitative percussion diagnostics as an indicator of the level of the structural pathology of teeth: Retrospective follow-up investigation of high-risk sites that remained pathological after restorative treatment.

PubMed

Sheets, Cherilyn G; Wu, Jean C; Earthman, James C

2017-11-29

Structural damage may remain even after a tooth is restored. Conventional diagnostic aids do not quantify the severity of structural damage or allow the monitoring of structural changes after restoration. The purpose of this retrospective clinical study was to provide an in-depth analysis of 9 high-risk sites after restoration. The analysis followed structural defects found upon disassembly, restorative materials used, therapeutic procedures provided, current longevity, and long-term quantitative percussion diagnostics (QPD) to monitor results. The hypothesis was that QPD can be used to quantify positive and negative changes in structural stability. Sixty sites requiring restoration were part of an institutional review board-approved clinical study. Each participant was examined comprehensively, including QPD testing, at each follow-up. Long-term changes in normal fit error (NFE) values after restoration were evaluated according to a pathology rating system established in an earlier publication. Nine highly compromised sites were chosen for further analysis and monitored for an additional 6 years. Of the 9 high-risk sites (NFE>0.04), 7 sites improved and 2 sites deteriorated. Potential causes for each trend were documented. The data support the hypothesis that QPD can be used to monitor changes in structural stability after restoration. Knowledge of changes in advance of any symptoms allows further preventive or therapeutic intervention before serious structural damage can occur. Follow-up QPD indications of site improvement can also assure the clinician of the desired structural outcome. Copyright © 2017 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Susceptibility loci of CNOT6 in the general mRNA degradation pathway and lung cancer risk-A re-analysis of eight GWASs.

PubMed

Zhou, Fei; Wang, Yanru; Liu, Hongliang; Ready, Neal; Han, Younghun; Hung, Rayjean J; Brhane, Yonathan; McLaughlin, John; Brennan, Paul; Bickeböller, Heike; Rosenberger, Albert; Houlston, Richard S; Caporaso, Neil; Landi, Maria Teresa; Brüske, Irene; Risch, Angela; Ye, Yuanqing; Wu, Xifeng; Christiani, David C; Goodman, Gary; Chen, Chu; Amos, Christopher I; Wei, Qingyi

2017-04-01

mRNA degradation is an important regulatory step for controlling gene expression and cell functions. Genetic abnormalities involved in mRNA degradation genes were found to be associated with cancer risks. Therefore, we systematically investigated the roles of genetic variants in the general mRNA degradation pathway in lung cancer risk. Meta-analyses were conducted using summary data from six lung cancer genome-wide association studies (GWASs) from the Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung and additional two GWASs from Harvard University and deCODE in the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Expression quantitative trait loci analysis (eQTL) was used for in silico functional validation of the identified significant susceptibility loci. This pathway-based analysis included 6816 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 68 genes in 14 463 lung cancer cases and 44 188 controls. In the single-locus analysis, we found that 20 SNPs were associated with lung cancer risk with a false discovery rate threshold of <0.05. Among the 11 newly identified SNPs in CNOT6, which were in high linkage disequilibrium, the rs2453176 with a RegulomDB score "1f" was chosen as the tagSNP for further analysis. We found that the rs2453176 T allele was significantly associated with lung cancer risk (odds ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.18) in the eight GWASs. In the eQTL analysis, we found that levels of CNOT6 mRNA expression were significantly correlated with the rs2453176 T allele, which provided additional biological basis for the observed positive association. The CNOT6 rs2453176 SNP may be a new functional susceptible locus for lung cancer risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk of cervical injuries in mixed martial arts.

PubMed

Kochhar, T; Back, D L; Mann, B; Skinner, J

2005-07-01

Mixed martial arts have rapidly succeeded boxing as the world's most popular full contact sport, and the incidence of injury is recognised to be high. To assess qualitatively and quantitatively the potential risk for participants to sustain cervical spine and associated soft tissue injuries. Four commonly performed manoeuvres with possible risks to the cervical spine were analysed with respect to their kinematics, and biomechanical models were constructed. Motion analysis of two manoeuvres revealed strong correlations with rear end motor vehicle impact injuries, and kinematics of the remaining two suggested a strong risk of injury. Mathematical models of the biomechanics showed that the forces involved are of the same order as those involved in whiplash injuries and of the same magnitude as compression injuries of the cervical spine. This study shows that there is a significant risk of whiplash injuries in this sport, and there are no safety regulations to address these concerns.

Risk of cervical injuries in mixed martial arts

PubMed Central

Kochhar, T; Back, D; Mann, B; Skinner, J

2005-01-01

Background: Mixed martial arts have rapidly succeeded boxing as the world's most popular full contact sport, and the incidence of injury is recognised to be high. Objective: To assess qualitatively and quantitatively the potential risk for participants to sustain cervical spine and associated soft tissue injuries. Methods: Four commonly performed manoeuvres with possible risks to the cervical spine were analysed with respect to their kinematics, and biomechanical models were constructed. Results: Motion analysis of two manoeuvres revealed strong correlations with rear end motor vehicle impact injuries, and kinematics of the remaining two suggested a strong risk of injury. Mathematical models of the biomechanics showed that the forces involved are of the same order as those involved in whiplash injuries and of the same magnitude as compression injuries of the cervical spine. Conclusions: This study shows that there is a significant risk of whiplash injuries in this sport, and there are no safety regulations to address these concerns. PMID:15976168

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I

2014-11-15

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of antipsychotics increases the risk of fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lee, S-H; Hsu, W-T; Lai, C-C; Esmaily-Fard, A; Tsai, Y-W; Chiu, C-C; Wang, J; Chang, S-S; Lee, C C

2017-04-01

Our systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies indicated that the use of antipsychotics was associated with a nearly 1.5-fold increase in the risk of fracture. First-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) appeared to carry a higher risk of fracture than second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs). The risk of fractures associated with the use of antipsychotic medications has inconsistent evidence between different drug classes. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate whether there is an association between the use of antipsychotic drugs and fractures. Searches were conducted through the PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify observational studies that had reported a quantitative estimate of the association between use of antipsychotics and fractures. The summary risk was derived from random effects meta-analysis. The search yielded 19 observational studies (n = 544,811 participants) with 80,835 fracture cases. Compared with nonuse, use of FGAs was associated with a significantly higher risk for hip fractures (OR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.45-1.93), and use of second generation antipsychotics (SGAs) was associated with an attenuated but still significant risk for hip fractures (OR 1.33, 95% CI, 1.11-1.58). The risk of fractures associated with individual classes of antipsychotic users was heterogeneous, and odds ratios ranged from 1.24 to 2.01. Chlorpromazine was associated with the highest risk (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.43-2.83), while Risperidone was associated with the lowest risk of fracture (OR 1.24, 95% CI 0.95-1.83). FGA users were at a higher risk of hip fracture than SGA users. Both FGAs and SGAs were associated with an increased risk of fractures, especially among the older population. Therefore, the benefit of the off-label use of antipsychotics in elderly patients should be weighed against any risks for fracture.

Using Discrete Choice Experiments to Inform the Benefit-Risk Assessment of Medicines: Are We Ready Yet?

PubMed

Vass, Caroline M; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

There is emerging interest in the use of discrete choice experiments as a means of quantifying the perceived balance between benefits and risks (quantitative benefit-risk assessment) of new healthcare interventions, such as medicines, under assessment by regulatory agencies. For stated preference data on benefit-risk assessment to be used in regulatory decision making, the methods to generate these data must be valid, reliable and capable of producing meaningful estimates understood by decision makers. Some reporting guidelines exist for discrete choice experiments, and for related methods such as conjoint analysis. However, existing guidelines focus on reporting standards, are general in focus and do not consider the requirements for using discrete choice experiments specifically for quantifying benefit-risk assessments in the context of regulatory decision making. This opinion piece outlines the current state of play in using discrete choice experiments for benefit-risk assessment and proposes key areas needing to be addressed to demonstrate that discrete choice experiments are an appropriate and valid stated preference elicitation method in this context. Methodological research is required to establish: how robust the results of discrete choice experiments are to formats and methods of risk communication; how information in the discrete choice experiment can be presented effectually to respondents; whose preferences should be elicited; the correct underlying utility function and analytical model; the impact of heterogeneity in preferences; and the generalisability of the results. We believe these methodological issues should be addressed, alongside developing a 'reference case', before agencies can safely and confidently use discrete choice experiments for quantitative benefit-risk assessment in the context of regulatory decision making for new medicines and healthcare products.

Assessment of drug-induced arrhythmic risk using limit cycle and autocorrelation analysis of human iPSC-cardiomyocyte contractility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirby, R. Jason

2016-08-15

Cardiac safety assays incorporating label-free detection of human stem-cell derived cardiomyocyte contractility provide human relevance and medium throughput screening to assess compound-induced cardiotoxicity. In an effort to provide quantitative analysis of the large kinetic datasets resulting from these real-time studies, we applied bioinformatic approaches based on nonlinear dynamical system analysis, including limit cycle analysis and autocorrelation function, to systematically assess beat irregularity. The algorithms were integrated into a software program to seamlessly generate results for 96-well impedance-based data. Our approach was validated by analyzing dose- and time-dependent changes in beat patterns induced by known proarrhythmic compounds and screening a cardiotoxicitymore » library to rank order compounds based on their proarrhythmic potential. We demonstrate a strong correlation for dose-dependent beat irregularity monitored by electrical impedance and quantified by autocorrelation analysis to traditional manual patch clamp potency values for hERG blockers. In addition, our platform identifies non-hERG blockers known to cause clinical arrhythmia. Our method provides a novel suite of medium-throughput quantitative tools for assessing compound effects on cardiac contractility and predicting compounds with potential proarrhythmia and may be applied to in vitro paradigms for pre-clinical cardiac safety evaluation. - Highlights: • Impedance-based monitoring of human iPSC-derived cardiomyocyte contractility • Limit cycle analysis of impedance data identifies aberrant oscillation patterns. • Nonlinear autocorrelation function quantifies beat irregularity. • Identification of hERG and non-hERG inhibitors with known risk of arrhythmia • Automated software processes limit cycle and autocorrelation analyses of 96w data.« less

Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

PubMed

Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

2017-07-11

Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

Feasibility of visual aids for risk evaluation by hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease: results from face-to-face interviews.

PubMed

Magliano, Carlos Alberto da Silva; Monteiro, Andrea Liborio; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Oliveira, Claudia Silvia Rocha; Rebelo, Amanda Rebeca de Oliveira; Pereira, Claudia Cristina de Aguiar

2018-01-01

Communicating information about risk and probability to patients is considered a difficult task. In this study, we aim to evaluate the use of visual aids representing perioperative mortality and long-term survival in the communication process for patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease at the National Institute of Cardiology, a Brazilian public hospital specializing in cardiology. One-on-one interviews were conducted between August 1 and November 20, 2017. Patients were asked to imagine that their doctor was seeking their input in the decision regarding which treatment represented the best option for them. Patients were required to choose between alternatives by considering only the different benefits and risks shown in each scenario, described as the proportion of patients who had died during the perioperative period and within 5 years. Each participant evaluated the same eight scenarios. We evaluated their answers in a qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main findings were that all patients verbally expressed concern about perioperative mortality and that 25% did not express concern about long-term mortality. Twelve percent considered the probabilities irrelevant on the grounds that their prognosis would depend on "God's will." Ten percent of the patients disregarded the reported likelihood of perioperative mortality, deciding to focus solely on the "chance of being cured." In the quantitative analysis, the vast majority of respondents chose the "correct" alternatives, meaning that they made consistent and rational choices. The use of visual aids to present risk attributes appeared feasible in our sample. The impact of heuristics and religious beliefs on shared health decision making needs to be explored better in future studies.

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

Quantitative AOP-based predictions for two aromatase inhibitors evaluating the influence of bioaccumulation on prediction accuracy

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to support the use of mechanistic toxicology data as a basis for risk assessment. For certain risk contexts this includes defining, quantitative linkages between the molecular initiating event (MIE) and subsequent key events...

Studying Biology to Understand Risk: Dosimetry Models and Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the quantitative prediction of risk is increased when the prediction is based to as great an extent as possible on the relevant biological factors that constitute the pathway from exposure to adverse outcome. With the first examples now over 40 years old, physiologi...

DOSIMETRY MODELING OF INHALED FORMALDEHYDE: BINNING NASAL FLUX PREDICTIONS FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Dosimetry Modeling of Inhaled Formaldehyde: Binning Nasal Flux Predictions for Quantitative Risk Assessment. Kimbell, J.S., Overton, J.H., Subramaniam, R.P., Schlosser, P.M., Morgan, K.T., Conolly, R.B., and Miller, F.J. (2001). Toxicol. Sci. 000, 000:000.

Interspecies e...

Agreement between quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiology at low doses during waterborne outbreaks of protozoan disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a valuable complement to epidemiology for understanding the health impacts of waterborne pathogens. The approach works by extrapolating available data in two ways. First, dose-response data are typically extrapolated from feeding studies, which use ...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR § 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...