76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-13

...] Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review AGENCY: Food and Drug... availability of a draft report entitled ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs... ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review.'' A literature...

Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

PubMed

Yasnoff, William A

2016-01-01

A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

2009-01-01

Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

PubMed

Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

2017-07-11

Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under considerationmore » by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.« less

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

The linearized multistage model and the future of quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Crump, K S

1996-10-01

The linearized multistage (LMS) model has for over 15 years been the default dose-response model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and other federal and state regulatory agencies in the United States for calculating quantitative estimates of low-dose carcinogenic risks from animal data. The LMS model is in essence a flexible statistical model that can describe both linear and non-linear dose-response patterns, and that produces an upper confidence bound on the linear low-dose slope of the dose-response curve. Unlike its namesake, the Armitage-Doll multistage model, the parameters of the LMS do not correspond to actual physiological phenomena. Thus the LMS is 'biological' only to the extent that the true biological dose response is linear at low dose and that low-dose slope is reflected in the experimental data. If the true dose response is non-linear the LMS upper bound may overestimate the true risk by many orders of magnitude. However, competing low-dose extrapolation models, including those derived from 'biologically-based models' that are capable of incorporating additional biological information, have not shown evidence to date of being able to produce quantitative estimates of low-dose risks that are any more accurate than those obtained from the LMS model. Further, even if these attempts were successful, the extent to which more accurate estimates of low-dose risks in a test animal species would translate into improved estimates of human risk is questionable. Thus, it does not appear possible at present to develop a quantitative approach that would be generally applicable and that would offer significant improvements upon the crude bounding estimates of the type provided by the LMS model. Draft USEPA guidelines for cancer risk assessment incorporate an approach similar to the LMS for carcinogens having a linear mode of action. However, under these guidelines quantitative estimates of low-dose risks would not be developed for

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

PubMed

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
2Department of...

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

PubMed

Conners, Erin E; West, Brooke S; Roth, Alexis M; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D; Brouwer, Kimberly C

2016-01-01

Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

PubMed Central

Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

2016-03-01

Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

PubMed Central

Dong, Q.L.; Barker, G.C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X.Y.; Malakar, P.K.

2015-01-01

Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives. PMID:26089594

Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

2018-01-01

Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.

Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

2014-11-20

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hydrogen quantitative risk assessment workshop proceedings.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Harris, Aaron P.

2013-09-01

The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) Toolkit Introduction Workshop was held at Energetics on June 11-12. The workshop was co-hosted by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and HySafe, the International Association for Hydrogen Safety. The objective of the workshop was twofold: (1) Present a hydrogen-specific methodology and toolkit (currently under development) for conducting QRA to support the development of codes and standards and safety assessments of hydrogen-fueled vehicles and fueling stations, and (2) Obtain feedback on the needs of early-stage users (hydrogen as well as potential leveraging for Compressed Natural Gas [CNG], and Liquefied Natural Gas [LNG]) and set priorities for %E2%80%9CVersionmore » 1%E2%80%9D of the toolkit in the context of the commercial evolution of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). The workshop consisted of an introduction and three technical sessions: Risk Informed Development and Approach; CNG/LNG Applications; and Introduction of a Hydrogen Specific QRA Toolkit.« less

Quantitative Gait Markers and Incident Fall Risk in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Holtzer, Roee; Lipton, Richard B.; Wang, Cuiling

2009-01-01

Background Identifying quantitative gait markers of falls in older adults may improve diagnostic assessments and suggest novel intervention targets. Methods We studied 597 adults aged 70 and older (mean age 80.5 years, 62% women) enrolled in an aging study who received quantitative gait assessments at baseline. Association of speed and six other gait markers (cadence, stride length, swing, double support, stride length variability, and swing time variability) with incident fall rate was studied using generalized estimation equation procedures adjusted for age, sex, education, falls, chronic illnesses, medications, cognition, disability as well as traditional clinical tests of gait and balance. Results Over a mean follow-up period of 20 months, 226 (38%) of the 597 participants fell. Mean fall rate was 0.44 per person-year. Slower gait speed (risk ratio [RR] per 10 cm/s decrease 1.069, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.001–1.142) was associated with higher risk of falls in the fully adjusted models. Among six other markers, worse performance on swing (RR 1.406, 95% CI 1.027–1.926), double-support phase (RR 1.165, 95% CI 1.026–1.321), swing time variability (RR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004–1.010), and stride length variability (RR 1.076, 95% CI 1.030–1.111) predicted fall risk. The associations remained significant even after accounting for cognitive impairment and disability. Conclusions Quantitative gait markers are independent predictors of falls in older adults. Gait speed and other markers, especially variability, should be further studied to improve current fall risk assessments and to develop new interventions. PMID:19349593

A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment for center pivot irrigation of dairy wastewaters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the western United States where livestock wastewaters are commonly land applied, there are concerns over individuals being exposed to airborne pathogens. In response, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate infectious risks from inhaling pathogens aerosolized dur...

Improving the Linkages between Air Pollution Epidemiology and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Walker, Katy; Hubbell, Bryan

2011-01-01

Background: Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. Objectives: We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. Discussion: We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments—to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. Conclusions: Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities. PMID:21816702

Is there a place for quantitative risk assessment?

PubMed

Hall, Eric J

2009-06-01

The use of ionising radiations is so well established, especially in the practice of medicine, that it is impossible to imagine contemporary life without them. At the same time, ionising radiations are a known and proven human carcinogen. Exposure to radiation in some contexts elicits fear and alarm (nuclear power for example) while in other situations, until recently at least, it was accepted with alacrity (diagnostic x-rays for example). This non-uniform reaction to the potential hazards of radiation highlights the importance of quantitative risk estimates, which are necessary to help put things into perspective. Three areas will be discussed where quantitative risk estimates are needed and where uncertainties and limitations are a problem. First, the question of diagnostic x-rays. CT usage over the past quarter of a century has increased about 12 fold in the UK and more than 20 fold in the US. In both countries, more than 90% of the collective population dose from diagnostic x-rays comes from the few high dose procedures, such as interventional radiology, CT scans, lumbar spine x-rays and barium enemas. These all involve doses close to the lower limit at which there are credible epidemiological data for an excess cancer incidence. This is a critical question; what is the lowest dose at which there is good evidence of an elevated cancer incidence? Without low dose risk estimates the risk-benefit ratio of diagnostic procedures cannot be assessed. Second, the use of new techniques in radiation oncology. IMRT is widely used to obtain a more conformal dose distribution, particularly in children. It results in a larger total body dose, due to an increased number of monitor units and to the application of more radiation fields. The Linacs used today were not designed for IMRT and are based on leakage standards that were decided decades ago. It will be difficult and costly to reduce leakage from treatment machines, and a necessary first step is to refine the available

[A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

2015-05-01

To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

2016-04-01

Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-07

... the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From Foodborne... quantitative targets established in ``Healthy People 2010.'' In 2005, FoodNet data showed 0.30 L. monocytogenes... 4). In 2003, FDA and FSIS published a quantitative assessment of the relative risk to public health...

A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.

2002-01-01

This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.

PubMed

Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A

2002-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.

Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

2018-02-01

Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

2014-09-01

Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

PubMed

Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

2018-06-05

Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p < 0.007 for both operators). Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p < 0.0001, for each paired combination of two operators and two radiologists). Interoperator and intraoperator agreement in the quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was

QUANTITATIVE CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY USING SHORT-TERM GENETIC BIOASSAYS: THE COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative risk assessment is fraught with many uncertainties. The validity of the assumptions underlying the methods employed are often difficult to test or validate. Cancer risk assessment has generally employed either human epidemiological data from relatively high occupatio...

Supply chain risk management of newspaper industry: A quantitative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartika, Viny; Hisjam, Muh.; Sutopo, Wahyudi

2018-02-01

The newspaper industry has several distinctive features that make it stands out from other industries. The strict delivery deadline and zero inventory led to a very short time frame for production and distribution. On the other hand, there is pressure from the newsroom to encourage the start of production as slowly as possible in order to enter the news, while there is pressure from production and distribution to start production as early as possible. Supply chain risk management is needed in determining the best strategy for dealing with possible risks in the newspaper industry. In a case study of a newspaper in Surakarta, quantitative approaches are made to the newspaper supply chain risk management by calculating the expected cost of risk based on the magnitude of the impact and the probability of a risk event. From the calculation results obtained that the five risks with the highest value are newspaper delays to the end customer, broken plate, miss print, down machine, and delayed delivery of newspaper content. Then analyzed appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with such risk events.

Methods of quantitative risk assessment: The case of the propellant supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, H. A.; Bienz, A.

1984-08-01

As a consequence of the disastrous accident in Lapua (Finland) in 1976, where an explosion in a cartridge loading facility killed 40 and injured more than 70 persons, efforts were undertaken to examine and improve the safety of such installations. An ammunition factory in Switzerland considered the replacement of the manual supply of propellant hoppers by a new pneumatic supply system. This would reduce the maximum quantity of propellant in the hoppers to a level, where an accidental ignition would no longer lead to a detonation, and this would drastically limit the effects on persons. A quantitative risk assessment of the present and the planned supply system demonstrated that, in this particular case, the pneumatic supply system would not reduce the risk enough to justify the related costs. In addition, it could be shown that the safety of the existing system can be improved more effectively by other safety measures at considerably lower costs. Based on this practical example, the advantages of a strictly quantitative risk assessment for the safety planning in explosives factories are demonstrated. The methodological background of a risk assessment and the steps involved in the analysis are summarized. In addition, problems of quantification are discussed.

Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Engine Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. uman target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-hum...

Genetic toxicology at the crossroads-from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

White, Paul A; Johnson, George E

2016-05-01

Applied genetic toxicology is undergoing a transition from qualitative hazard identification to quantitative dose-response analysis and risk assessment. To facilitate this change, the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) Genetic Toxicology Technical Committee (GTTC) sponsored a workshop held in Lancaster, UK on July 10-11, 2014. The event included invited speakers from several institutions and the contents was divided into three themes-1: Point-of-departure Metrics for Quantitative Dose-Response Analysis in Genetic Toxicology; 2: Measurement and Estimation of Exposures for Better Extrapolation to Humans and 3: The Use of Quantitative Approaches in Genetic Toxicology for human health risk assessment (HHRA). A host of pertinent issues were discussed relating to the use of in vitro and in vivo dose-response data, the development of methods for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation and approaches to use in vivo dose-response data to determine human exposure limits for regulatory evaluations and decision-making. This Special Issue, which was inspired by the workshop, contains a series of papers that collectively address topics related to the aforementioned themes. The Issue includes contributions that collectively evaluate, describe and discuss in silico, in vitro, in vivo and statistical approaches that are facilitating the shift from qualitative hazard evaluation to quantitative risk assessment. The use and application of the benchmark dose approach was a central theme in many of the workshop presentations and discussions, and the Special Issue includes several contributions that outline novel applications for the analysis and interpretation of genetic toxicity data. Although the contents of the Special Issue constitutes an important step towards the adoption of quantitative methods for regulatory assessment of genetic toxicity, formal acceptance of quantitative methods for HHRA and regulatory decision-making will require consensus regarding the

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

2018-01-01

Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Using quantitative risk information in decisions about statins: a qualitative study in a community setting.

PubMed

Polak, Louisa; Green, Judith

2015-04-01

A large literature informs guidance for GPs about communicating quantitative risk information so as to facilitate shared decision making. However, relatively little has been written about how patients utilise such information in practice. To understand the role of quantitative risk information in patients' accounts of decisions about taking statins. This was a qualitative study, with participants recruited and interviewed in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 34 participants aged >50 years, all of whom had been offered statins. Data were analysed thematically, using elements of the constant comparative method. Interviewees drew frequently on numerical test results to explain their decisions about preventive medication. In contrast, they seldom mentioned quantitative risk information, and never offered it as a rationale for action. Test results were spoken of as objects of concern despite an often-explicit absence of understanding, so lack of understanding seems unlikely to explain the non-use of risk estimates. Preventive medication was seen as 'necessary' either to treat test results, or because of personalised, unequivocal advice from a doctor. This study's findings call into question the assumption that people will heed and use numerical risk information once they understand it; these data highlight the need to consider the ways in which different kinds of knowledge are used in practice in everyday contexts. There was little evidence from this study that understanding probabilistic risk information was a necessary or valued condition for making decisions about statin use. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

PubMed Central

Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

PubMed

Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

2017-02-01

Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding outbreaks of waterborne infectious disease: quantitative microbial risk assessment vs. epidemiology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drinking water contaminated with microbial pathogens can cause outbreaks of infectious disease, and these outbreaks are traditionally studied using epidemiologic methods. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can predict – and therefore help prevent – such outbreaks, but it has never been r...

A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

PubMed

Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

2013-01-01

The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

Studying Biology to Understand Risk: Dosimetry Models and Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the quantitative prediction of risk is increased when the prediction is based to as great an extent as possible on the relevant biological factors that constitute the pathway from exposure to adverse outcome. With the first examples now over 40 years old, physiologi...

Food Consumption and Handling Survey for Quantitative Microbiological Consumer Phase Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Chardon, Jurgen; Swart, Arno

2016-07-01

In the consumer phase of a typical quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), mathematical equations identify data gaps. To acquire useful data we designed a food consumption and food handling survey (2,226 respondents) for QMRA applications that is especially aimed at obtaining quantitative data. For a broad spectrum of food products, the survey covered the following topics: processing status at retail, consumer storage, preparation, and consumption. Questions were designed to facilitate distribution fitting. In the statistical analysis, special attention was given to the selection of the most adequate distribution to describe the data. Bootstrap procedures were used to describe uncertainty. The final result was a coherent quantitative consumer phase food survey and parameter estimates for food handling and consumption practices in The Netherlands, including variation over individuals and uncertainty estimates.

Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data.

PubMed

Falk, L E; Fader, K A; Cui, D S; Totton, S C; Fazil, A M; Lammerding, A M; Smith, B A

2016-10-01

Although infection by the pathogenic bacterium Listeria monocytogenes is relatively rare, consequences can be severe, with a high case-fatality rate in vulnerable populations. A quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment tool was developed to compare estimates of the number of invasive listeriosis cases in vulnerable Canadian subpopulations given consumption of contaminated ready-to-eat delicatessen meats and hot dogs, under various user-defined scenarios. The model incorporates variability and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation. Processes considered within the model include cross-contamination, growth, risk factor prevalence, subpopulation susceptibilities, and thermal inactivation. Hypothetical contamination events were simulated. Results demonstrated varying risk depending on the consumer risk factors and implicated product (turkey delicatessen meat without growth inhibitors ranked highest for this scenario). The majority (80%) of listeriosis cases were predicted in at-risk subpopulations comprising only 20% of the total Canadian population, with the greatest number of predicted cases in the subpopulation with dialysis and/or liver disease. This tool can be used to simulate conditions and outcomes under different scenarios, such as a contamination event and/or outbreak, to inform public health interventions.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

2010-01-01

In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

Quantitative assessment of human health risk posed by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban road dust.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-01-01

Among the numerous pollutants present in urban road dust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants and can pose cancer risk to humans. The primary aim of the study was to develop a quantitative model to assess the cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust based on traffic and land use factors and thereby to characterise the risk posed by PAHs in fine (<150μm) and coarse (>150μm) particles. The risk posed by PAHs was quantified as incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), which was modelled as a function of traffic volume and percentages of different urban land uses. The study outcomes highlighted the fact that cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust is primarily influenced by PAHs associated with fine solids. Heavy PAHs with 5 to 6 benzene rings, especially dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (D[a]A) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in the mixture contribute most to the risk. The quantitative model developed based on traffic and land use factors will contribute to informed decision making in relation to the management of risk posed by PAHs in urban road dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

PubMed

Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

2002-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

2017-09-01

Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

DOSIMETRY MODELING OF INHALED FORMALDEHYDE: BINNING NASAL FLUX PREDICTIONS FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Dosimetry Modeling of Inhaled Formaldehyde: Binning Nasal Flux Predictions for Quantitative Risk Assessment. Kimbell, J.S., Overton, J.H., Subramaniam, R.P., Schlosser, P.M., Morgan, K.T., Conolly, R.B., and Miller, F.J. (2001). Toxicol. Sci. 000, 000:000.

Interspecies e...

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

2015-04-01

The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

PubMed

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

PubMed

Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

2014-01-01

The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

2010-09-01

Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org). Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

2016-01-01

Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society. PMID:28036009

Quantitative risk assessment of foods containing peanut advisory labeling.

PubMed

Remington, Benjamin C; Baumert, Joseph L; Marx, David B; Taylor, Steve L

2013-12-01

Foods with advisory labeling (i.e. "may contain") continue to be prevalent and the warning may be increasingly ignored by allergic consumers. We sought to determine the residual levels of peanut in various packaged foods bearing advisory labeling, compare similar data from 2005 and 2009, and determine any potential risk for peanut-allergic consumers. Of food products bearing advisory statements regarding peanut or products that had peanut listed as a minor ingredient, 8.6% and 37.5% contained detectable levels of peanut (>2.5 ppm whole peanut), respectively. Peanut-allergic individuals should be advised to avoid such products regardless of the wording of the advisory statement. Peanut was detected at similar rates and levels in products tested in both 2005 and 2009. Advisory labeled nutrition bars contained the highest levels of peanut and an additional market survey of 399 products was conducted. Probabilistic risk assessment showed the risk of a reaction to peanut-allergic consumers from advisory labeled nutrition bars was significant but brand-dependent. Peanut advisory labeling may be overused on some nutrition bars but prudently used on others. The probabilistic approach could provide the food industry with a quantitative method to assist with determining when advisory labeling is most appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland.

PubMed

Cummins, E; Kennedy, R; Cormican, M

2010-01-15

Cryptosporidium species are protozoan parasites associated with gastro-intestinal illness. Following a number of high profile outbreaks worldwide, it has emerged as a parasite of major public health concern. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to evaluate the annual risk of infection from Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland. The assessment considers the potential initial contamination levels in raw water, oocyst removal and decontamination events following various process stages, including coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. A number of scenarios were analysed to represent potential risks from public water supplies, group water schemes and private wells. Where surface water is used additional physical and chemical water treatment is important in terms of reducing the risk to consumers. The simulated annual risk of illness for immunocompetent individuals was below 1 x 10(-4) per year (as set by the US EPA) except under extreme contamination events. The risk for immunocompromised individuals was 2-3 orders of magnitude greater for the scenarios analysed. The model indicates a reduced risk of infection from tap water that has undergone microfiltration, as this treatment is more robust in the event of high contamination loads. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of watershed protection and the importance of adequate coagulation/flocculation in conventional treatment. The frequency of failure of the treatment process is the most important parameter influencing human risk in conventional treatment. The model developed in this study may be useful for local authorities, government agencies and other stakeholders to evaluate the likely risk of infection given some basic input data on source water and treatment processes used. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pharmaceutical Products.

PubMed

Eissa, Mostafa Essam

2017-01-01

Monitoring of microbiological quality in the pharmaceutical industry is an important criterion that is required to justify safe product release to the drug market. Good manufacturing practice and efficient control on bioburden level of product components are critical parameters that influence the microbiological cleanliness of medicinal products. However, because microbial dispersion through the samples follows Poisson distribution, the rate of detection of microbiologically defective samples lambda (λ) decreases when the number of defective units per batch decreases. When integrating a dose-response model of infection (P inf ) of a specific objectionable microbe with a contamination module, the overall probability of infection from a single batch of pharmaceutical product can be estimated. The combination of P inf with detectability chance of the test (P det ) will yield a value that could be used as a quantitative measure of the possibility of passing contaminated batch units of product with a certain load of a specific pathogen and infecting the final consumer without being detected in the firm. The simulation study can be used to assess the risk of contamination and infection from objectionable microorganisms for sterile and non-sterile products. LAY ABSTRACT: Microbial contamination of pharmaceutical products is a global problem that may lead to infection and possibly death. While reputable pharmaceutical companies strive to deliver microbiologically safe products, it would be helpful to apply an assessment system for the current risk associated with pharmaceutical batches delivered to the drug market. The current methodology may be helpful also in determining the degree of improvement or deterioration on the batch processing flow until reaching the final consumer. Moreover, the present system is flexible and can be applied to other industries such as food, cosmetics, or medical devices manufacturing and processing fields to assess the microbiological risk of

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Quantitative autistic trait measurements index background genetic risk for ASD in Hispanic families.

PubMed

Page, Joshua; Constantino, John Nicholas; Zambrana, Katherine; Martin, Eden; Tunc, Ilker; Zhang, Yi; Abbacchi, Anna; Messinger, Daniel

2016-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that quantitative autistic traits (QATs) of parents reflect inherited liabilities that may index background genetic risk for clinical autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in their offspring. Moreover, preferential mating for QATs has been observed as a potential factor in concentrating autistic liabilities in some families across generations. Heretofore, intergenerational studies of QATs have focused almost exclusively on Caucasian populations-the present study explored these phenomena in a well-characterized Hispanic population. The present study examined QAT scores in siblings and parents of 83 Hispanic probands meeting research diagnostic criteria for ASD, and 64 non-ASD controls, using the Social Responsiveness Scale-2 (SRS-2). Ancestry of the probands was characterized by genotype, using information from 541,929 single nucleotide polymorphic markers. In families of Hispanic children with an ASD diagnosis, the pattern of quantitative trait correlations observed between ASD-affected children and their first-degree relatives (ICCs on the order of 0.20), between unaffected first-degree relatives in ASD-affected families (sibling/mother ICC = 0.36; sibling/father ICC = 0.53), and between spouses (mother/father ICC = 0.48) were in keeping with the influence of transmitted background genetic risk and strong preferential mating for variation in quantitative autistic trait burden. Results from analysis of ancestry-informative genetic markers among probands in this sample were consistent with that from other Hispanic populations. Quantitative autistic traits represent measurable indices of inherited liability to ASD in Hispanic families. The accumulation of autistic traits occurs within generations, between spouses, and across generations, among Hispanic families affected by ASD. The occurrence of preferential mating for QATs-the magnitude of which may vary across cultures-constitutes a mechanism by which background genetic liability

Sugar concentration in nectar: a quantitative metric of crop attractiveness for refined pollinator risk assessments.

PubMed

Knopper, Loren D; Dan, Tereza; Reisig, Dominic D; Johnson, Josephine D; Bowers, Lisa M

2016-10-01

Those involved with pollinator risk assessment know that agricultural crops vary in attractiveness to bees. Intuitively, this means that exposure to agricultural pesticides is likely greatest for attractive plants and lowest for unattractive plants. While crop attractiveness in the risk assessment process has been qualitatively remarked on by some authorities, absent is direction on how to refine the process with quantitative metrics of attractiveness. At a high level, attractiveness of crops to bees appears to depend on several key variables, including but not limited to: floral, olfactory, visual and tactile cues; seasonal availability; physical and behavioral characteristics of the bee; plant and nectar rewards. Notwithstanding the complexities and interactions among these variables, sugar content in nectar stands out as a suitable quantitative metric by which to refine pollinator risk assessments for attractiveness. Provided herein is a proposed way to use sugar nectar concentration to adjust the exposure parameter (with what is called a crop attractiveness factor) in the calculation of risk quotients in order to derive crop-specific tier I assessments. This Perspective is meant to invite discussion on incorporating such changes in the risk assessment process. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Trichinellosis Caused by Consumption of Pork Meat Sausages in Argentina.

PubMed

Sequeira, G J; Zbrun, M V; Soto, L P; Astesana, D M; Blajman, J E; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S; Signorini, M L

2016-03-01

In Argentina, there are three known species of genus Trichinella; however, Trichinella spiralis is most commonly associated with domestic pigs and it is recognized as the main cause of human trichinellosis by the consumption of products made with raw or insufficiently cooked pork meat. In some areas of Argentina, this disease is endemic and it is thus necessary to develop a more effective programme of prevention and control. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment of human trichinellosis following pork meat sausage consumption, which may be used to identify the stages with greater impact on the probability of acquiring the disease. The quantitative model was designed to describe the conditions in which the meat is produced, processed, transported, stored, sold and consumed in Argentina. The model predicted a risk of human trichinellosis of 4.88 × 10(-6) and an estimated annual number of trichinellosis cases of 109. The risk of human trichinellosis was sensitive to the number of Trichinella larvae that effectively survived the storage period (r = 0.89), the average probability of infection (PPinf ) (r = 0.44) and the storage time (Storage) (r = 0.08). This model allowed assessing the impact of different factors influencing the risk of acquiring trichinellosis. The model may thus help to select possible strategies to reduce the risk in the chain of by-products of pork production. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling:• SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial Source Module as part...

Use of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to Improve Interpretation of a Recreational Water Epidemiological Study

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted a supplemental water quality monitoring study and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to complement the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recreational Water study at Boquerón ...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.

PubMed

Brouwer, Andrew F; Masters, Nina B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2018-04-20

Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

PubMed

Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

2005-05-01

Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers--specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products.

PubMed

Mataragas, M; Zwietering, M H; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

2010-07-31

The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH=6.2-6.4 and water activity=0.98-0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based on manufacturer's instructions. Therefore, in case of post-process contamination, even with low number of cells, the microorganism is able to reach unacceptable levels at the time of consumption. The aim of this study was to conduct a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) on the risk of L. monocytogenes presence in RTE meat products. This may help risk managers to make decisions and apply control measures with ultimate objective the food safety assurance. Examples are given to illustrate the development of practical risk management strategies based on the results obtained from the QMRA model specifically developed for this pathogen/food product combination. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Quantitative risk model for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli cross-contamination during homemade hamburger preparation].

PubMed

Signorini, M L; Frizzo, L S

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative risk model for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coil (VTEC) cross-contamination during hamburger preparation at home. Published scientific information about the disease was considered for the elaboration of the model, which included a number of routines performed during food preparation in kitchens. The associated probabilities of bacterial transference between food items and kitchen utensils which best described each stage of the process were incorporated into the model by using @Risk software. Handling raw meat before preparing ready-to-eat foods (Odds ratio, OR, 6.57), as well as hand (OR = 12.02) and cutting board (OR = 5.02) washing habits were the major risk factors of VTEC cross-contamination from meat to vegetables. The information provided by this model should be considered when designing public information campaigns on hemolytic uremic syndrome risk directed to food handlers, in order to stress the importance of the above mentioned factors in disease transmission.

A quantitative risk assessment for the safety of carcase storage systems for scrapie infected farms.

PubMed

Adkin, A; Jones, D L; Eckford, R L; Edwards-Jones, G; Williams, A P

2014-10-01

To determine the risk associated with the use of carcase storage vessels on a scrapie infected farm. A stochastic quantitative risk assessment was developed to determine the rate of accumulation and fate of scrapie in a novel low-input storage system. For an example farm infected with classical scrapie, a mean of 10(3·6) Ovine Oral ID50 s was estimated to accumulate annually. Research indicates that the degradation of any prions present may range from insignificant to a magnitude of one or two logs over several months of storage. For infected farms, the likely partitioning of remaining prion into the sludge phase would necessitate the safe operation and removal of resulting materials from these systems. If complete mixing could be assumed, on average, the concentrations of infectivity are estimated to be slightly lower than that measured in placenta from infected sheep at lambing. This is the first quantitative assessment of the scrapie risk associated with fallen stock on farm and provides guidance to policy makers on the safety of one type of storage system and the relative risk when compared to other materials present on an infected farm. © 2014 Crown Copyright. Journal of Applied Microbiology © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Characterizing the risk of infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger aircraft using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Jones, Rachael M; Masago, Yoshifumi; Bartrand, Timothy; Haas, Charles N; Nicas, Mark; Rose, Joan B

2009-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to predict the likelihood and spatial organization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in a commercial aircraft. Passenger exposure was predicted via a multizone Markov model in four scenarios: seated or moving infectious passengers and with or without filtration of recirculated cabin air. The traditional exponential (k = 1) and a new exponential (k = 0.0218) dose-response function were used to compute infection risk. Emission variability was included by Monte Carlo simulation. Infection risks were higher nearer and aft of the source; steady state airborne concentration levels were not attained. Expected incidence was low to moderate, with the central 95% ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-1) per 169 passengers in the four scenarios. Emission rates used were low compared to measurements from active TB patients in wards, thus a "superspreader" emitting 44 quanta/h could produce 6.2 cases or more under these scenarios. Use of respiratory protection by the infectious source and/or susceptible passengers reduced infection incidence up to one order of magnitude.

Quantitative analysis of visible surface defect risk in tablets during film coating using terahertz pulsed imaging.

PubMed

Niwa, Masahiro; Hiraishi, Yasuhiro

2014-01-30

Tablets are the most common form of solid oral dosage produced by pharmaceutical industries. There are several challenges to successful and consistent tablet manufacturing. One well-known quality issue is visible surface defects, which generally occur due to insufficient physical strength, causing breakage or abrasion during processing, packaging, or shipping. Techniques that allow quantitative evaluation of surface strength and the risk of surface defect would greatly aid in quality control. Here terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI) was employed to evaluate the surface properties of core tablets with visible surface defects of varying severity after film coating. Other analytical methods, such as tensile strength measurements, friability testing, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), were used to validate TPI results. Tensile strength and friability provided no information on visible surface defect risk, whereas the TPI-derived unique parameter terahertz electric field peak strength (TEFPS) provided spatial distribution of surface density/roughness information on core tablets, which helped in estimating tablet abrasion risk prior to film coating and predicting the location of the defects. TPI also revealed the relationship between surface strength and blending condition and is a nondestructive, quantitative approach to aid formulation development and quality control that can reduce visible surface defect risk in tablets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

2010-05-01

For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

Conditional Toxicity Value (CTV) Predictor: An In Silico Approach for Generating Quantitative Risk Estimates for Chemicals.

PubMed

Wignall, Jessica A; Muratov, Eugene; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Tropsha, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A

2018-05-01

Human health assessments synthesize human, animal, and mechanistic data to produce toxicity values that are key inputs to risk-based decision making. Traditional assessments are data-, time-, and resource-intensive, and they cannot be developed for most environmental chemicals owing to a lack of appropriate data. As recommended by the National Research Council, we propose a solution for predicting toxicity values for data-poor chemicals through development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. We used a comprehensive database of chemicals with existing regulatory toxicity values from U.S. federal and state agencies to develop quantitative QSAR models. We compared QSAR-based model predictions to those based on high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. QSAR models for noncancer threshold-based values and cancer slope factors had cross-validation-based Q 2 of 0.25-0.45, mean model errors of 0.70-1.11 log 10 units, and applicability domains covering >80% of environmental chemicals. Toxicity values predicted from QSAR models developed in this study were more accurate and precise than those based on HTS assays or mean-based predictions. A publicly accessible web interface to make predictions for any chemical of interest is available at http://toxvalue.org. An in silico tool that can predict toxicity values with an uncertainty of an order of magnitude or less can be used to quickly and quantitatively assess risks of environmental chemicals when traditional toxicity data or human health assessments are unavailable. This tool can fill a critical gap in the risk assessment and management of data-poor chemicals. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2998.

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Huang, Yong-Sheng; Fan, Qian-Qian; Li, Chuang; Nie, Meng; Quan, Hong-Yang; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

2008-11-15

The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens andmore » presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibacterial hand hygiene products on risk of shigellosis.

PubMed

Schaffner, Donald W; Bowman, James P; English, Donald J; Fischler, George E; Fuls, Janice L; Krowka, John F; Kruszewski, Francis H

2014-04-01

There are conflicting reports on whether antibacterial hand hygiene products are more effective than nonantibacterial products in reducing bacteria on hands and preventing disease. This research used new laboratory data, together with simulation techniques, to compare the ability of nonantibacterial and antibacterial products to reduce shigellosis risk. One hundred sixtythree subjects were used to compare five different hand treatments: two nonantibacterial products and three antibacterial products, i.e., 0.46% triclosan, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 62% ethyl alcohol. Hands were inoculated with 5.5 to 6 log CFU Shigella; the simulated food handlers then washed their hands with one of the five products before handling melon balls. Each simulation scenario represented an event in which 100 people would be exposed to Shigella from melon balls that had been handled by food workers with Shigella on their hands. Analysis of experimental data showed that the two nonantibacterial treatments produced about a 2-log reduction on hands. The three antibacterial treatments showed log reductions greater than 3 but less than 4 on hands. All three antibacterial treatments resulted in statistically significantly lower concentration on the melon balls relative to the nonantibacterial treatments. A simulation that assumed 1 million Shigella bacteria on the hands and the use of a nonantibacterial treatment predicted that 50 to 60 cases of shigellosis would result (of 100 exposed). Each of the antibacterial treatments was predicted to result in an appreciable number of simulations for which the number of illness cases would be 0, with the most common number of illness cases being 5 (of 100 exposed). These effects maintained statistical significance from 10(6) Shigella per hand down to as low as 100 Shigella per hand, with some evidence to support lower levels. This quantitative microbial risk assessment shows that antibacterial hand treatments can significantly reduce Shigella risk.

An Overview of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Propulsion Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.

1998-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has been working to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) in decisions concerning the Space Shuttle and other NASA projects. One current major NASA QRA study is the creation of a risk model for the overall Space Shuttle system. The model is intended to provide a tool to estimate Space Shuttle risk and to perform sensitivity analyses/trade studies, including the evaluation of upgrades. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is a part of the NASA team conducting the QRA study; MSFC responsibility involves modeling the propulsion elements of the Space Shuttle, namely: the External Tank (ET), the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). This paper discusses the approach that MSFC has used to model its Space Shuttle elements, including insights obtained from this experience in modeling large scale, highly complex systems with a varying availability of success/failure data. Insights, which are applicable to any QRA study, pertain to organizing the modeling effort, obtaining customer buy-in, preparing documentation, and using varied modeling methods and data sources. Also provided is an overall evaluation of the study results, including the strengths and the limitations of the MSFC QRA approach and of qRA technology in general.

Quantitative risk assessment for a glass fiber insulation product.

PubMed

Fayerweather, W E; Bender, J R; Hadley, J G; Eastes, W

1997-04-01

California Proposition 65 (Prop65) provides a mechanism by which the manufacturer may perform a quantitative risk assessment to be used in determining the need for cancer warning labels. This paper presents a risk assessment under this regulation for professional and do-it-yourself insulation installers. It determines the level of insulation glass fiber exposure (specifically Owens Corning's R-25 PinkPlus with Miraflex) that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, poses no significant cancer risk under Prop65's regulations. "No significant risk" is defined under Prop65 as a lifetime risk of no more than one additional cancer case per 100,000 exposed persons, and nonsignificant exposure is defined as a working lifetime exposure associated with "no significant risk." This determination can be carried out despite the fact that the relevant underlying studies (i.e., chronic inhalation bioassays) of comparable glass wool fibers do not show tumorigenic activity. Nonsignificant exposures are estimated from (1) the most recent RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of nondurable fiberglass in rats; (2) intraperitoneal fiberglass injection studies in rats; (3) a distributional, decision analysis approach applied to four chronic inhalation rat bioassays of conventional fiberglass; (4) an extrapolation from the RCC chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers; and (5) an extrapolation from the IOM chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E glass microfibers. When the EPA linear nonthreshold model is used, central estimates of nonsignificant exposure range from 0.36 fibers/cc (for the RCC chronic inhalation bioassay of fiberglass) through 21 fibers/cc (for the i.p. fiberglass injection studies). Lower 95% confidence bounds on these estimates vary from 0.17 fibers/cc through 13 fibers/cc. Estimates derived from the distributional approach or from applying the EPA linear nonthreshold model to chronic bioassays of durable fibers such as refractory ceramic fiber

Agreement between quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiology at low doses during waterborne outbreaks of protozoan disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a valuable complement to epidemiology for understanding the health impacts of waterborne pathogens. The approach works by extrapolating available data in two ways. First, dose-response data are typically extrapolated from feeding studies, which use ...

Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remondo, Juan; Bonachea, Jaime; Cendrero, Antonio

A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average 'specific loss' for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0-1). From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 10 6 Euros.

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-11

... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

QUANTITATIVE PROCEDURES FOR NEUROTOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In this project, previously published information on biologically based dose-response model for brain development was used to quantitatively evaluate critical neurodevelopmental processes, and to assess potential chemical impacts on early brain development. This model has been ex...

Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

A Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment of the Toxicological Risks from Exxon Valdez Subsurface Oil Residues to Sea Otters at Northern Knight Island, Prince William Sound, Alaska

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Johnson, Charles B.; Garshelis, David L.; Parker, Keith R.

2010-01-01

A comprehensive, quantitative risk assessment is presented of the toxicological risks from buried Exxon Valdez subsurface oil residues (SSOR) to a subpopulation of sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at Northern Knight Island (NKI) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as it has been asserted that this subpopulation of sea otters may be experiencing adverse effects from the SSOR. The central questions in this study are: could the risk to NKI sea otters from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in SSOR, as characterized in 2001–2003, result in individual health effects, and, if so, could that exposure cause subpopulation-level effects? We follow the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) risk paradigm by: (a) identifying potential routes of exposure to PAHs from SSOR; (b) developing a quantitative simulation model of exposures using the best available scientific information; (c) developing scenarios based on calculated probabilities of sea otter exposures to SSOR; (d) simulating exposures for 500,000 modeled sea otters and extracting the 99.9% quantile most highly exposed individuals; and (e) comparing projected exposures to chronic toxicity reference values. Results indicate that, even under conservative assumptions in the model, maximum-exposed sea otters would not receive a dose of PAHs sufficient to cause any health effects; consequently, no plausible toxicological risk exists from SSOR to the sea otter subpopulation at NKI. PMID:20862194

Using a quantitative risk register to promote learning from a patient safety reporting system.

PubMed

Mansfield, James G; Caplan, Robert A; Campos, John S; Dreis, David F; Furman, Cathie

2015-02-01

Patient safety reporting systems are now used in most health care delivery organizations. These systems, such as the one in use at Virginia Mason (Seattle) since 2002, can provide valuable reports of risk and harm from the front lines of patient care. In response to the challenge of how to quantify and prioritize safety opportunities, a risk register system was developed and implemented. Basic risk register concepts were refined to provide a systematic way to understand risks reported by staff. The risk register uses a comprehensive taxonomy of patient risk and algorithmically assigns each patient safety report to 1 of 27 risk categories in three major domains (Evaluation, Treatment, and Critical Interactions). For each category, a composite score was calculated on the basis of event rate, harm, and cost. The composite scores were used to identify the "top five" risk categories, and patient safety reports in these categories were analyzed in greater depth to find recurrent patterns of risk and associated opportunities for improvement. The top five categories of risk were easy to identify and had distinctive "profiles" of rate, harm, and cost. The ability to categorize and rank risks across multiple dimensions yielded insights not previously available. These results were shared with leadership and served as input for planning quality and safety initiatives. This approach provided actionable input for the strategic planning process, while at the same time strengthening the Virginia Mason culture of safety. The quantitative patient safety risk register serves as one solution to the challenge of extracting valuable safety lessons from large numbers of incident reports and could profitably be adopted by other organizations.

The Functional Resonance Analysis Method for a systemic risk based environmental auditing in a sinter plant: A semi-quantitative approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patriarca, Riccardo, E-mail: riccardo.patriarca@uniroma1.it; Di Gravio, Giulio; Costantino, Francesco

Environmental auditing is a main issue for any production plant and assessing environmental performance is crucial to identify risks factors. The complexity of current plants arises from interactions among technological, human and organizational system components, which are often transient and not easily detectable. The auditing thus requires a systemic perspective, rather than focusing on individual behaviors, as emerged in recent research in the safety domain for socio-technical systems. We explore the significance of modeling the interactions of system components in everyday work, by the application of a recent systemic method, i.e. the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), in order tomore » define dynamically the system structure. We present also an innovative evolution of traditional FRAM following a semi-quantitative approach based on Monte Carlo simulation. This paper represents the first contribution related to the application of FRAM in the environmental context, moreover considering a consistent evolution based on Monte Carlo simulation. The case study of an environmental risk auditing in a sinter plant validates the research, showing the benefits in terms of identifying potential critical activities, related mitigating actions and comprehensive environmental monitoring indicators. - Highlights: • We discuss the relevance of a systemic risk based environmental audit. • We present FRAM to represent functional interactions of the system. • We develop a semi-quantitative FRAM framework to assess environmental risks. • We apply the semi-quantitative FRAM framework to build a model for a sinter plant.« less

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

PubMed Central

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2009-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-17

... Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further development. The public workshop will include... Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, suite 200N, Rockville... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...

Communicating quantitative risks and benefits in promotional prescription drug labeling or print advertising.

PubMed

West, Suzanne L; Squiers, Linda B; McCormack, Lauren; Southwell, Brian G; Brouwer, Emily S; Ashok, Mahima; Lux, Linda; Boudewyns, Vanessa; O'Donoghue, Amie; Sullivan, Helen W

2013-05-01

Under the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, all promotional materials for prescription drugs must strike a fair balance in presentation of risks and benefits. How to best present this information is not clear. We sought to determine if the presentation of quantitative risk and benefit information in drug advertising and labeling influences consumers', patients', and clinicians' information processing, knowledge, and behavior by assessing available empirical evidence. We used PubMed for a literature search, limiting to articles published in English from 1990 forward. Two reviewers independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for inclusion, after which we reviewed the full texts to determine if they communicated risk/benefit information either: (i) numerically (e.g., percent) versus non-numerically (e.g., using text such as "increased risk") or (ii) numerically using different formats (e.g., "25% of patients", "one in four patients", or use of pictographs). We abstracted information from included articles into standardized evidence tables. The research team identified a total of 674 relevant publications, of which 52 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 37 focused on drugs. Presenting numeric information appears to improve understanding of risks and benefits relative to non-numeric presentation; presenting both numeric and non-numeric information when possible may be best practice. No single specific format or graphical approach emerged as consistently superior. Numeracy and health literacy also deserve more empirical attention as moderators. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa.

PubMed

Van Abel, Nicole; Mans, Janet; Taylor, Maureen B

2017-10-01

This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 -8 to 5.19 × 10 -1 ) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 -5 to 7.24 × 10 -1 ). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 -6 to 5.43 × 10 -1 ) and swimming (6.20 × 10 -6 to 6.42 × 10 -1 ) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 -7 to 5.48 × 10 -1 ). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

PubMed

Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

2013-09-15

The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Through a Bi-Directional Road Tunnel.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; De Guglielmo, Maria Luisa

2017-01-01

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis in Canadian broiler chicken breast from retail to consumption.

PubMed

Smadi, Hanan; Sargeant, Jan M

2013-02-01

The current quantitative risk assessment model followed the framework proposed by the Codex Alimentarius to provide an estimate of the risk of human salmonellosis due to consumption of chicken breasts which were bought from Canadian retail stores and prepared in Canadian domestic kitchens. The model simulated the level of Salmonella contamination on chicken breasts throughout the retail-to-table pathway. The model used Canadian input parameter values, where available, to represent risk of salmonellosis. From retail until consumption, changes in the concentration of Salmonella on each chicken breast were modeled using equations for growth and inactivation. The model predicted an average of 318 cases of salmonellosis per 100,000 consumers per year. Potential reasons for this overestimation were discussed. A sensitivity analysis showed that concentration of Salmonella on chicken breasts at retail and food hygienic practices in private kitchens such as cross-contamination due to not washing cutting boards (or utensils) and hands after handling raw meat along with inadequate cooking contributed most significantly to the risk of human salmonellosis. The outcome from this model emphasizes that responsibility for protection from Salmonella hazard on chicken breasts is a shared responsibility. Data needed for a comprehensive Canadian Salmonella risk assessment were identified for future research. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk

EPA Science Inventory

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the ne...

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Antimicrobial-Resistant Foodborne Infections in Humans Due to Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Usage in Dairy Cows.

PubMed

Singer, Randall S; Ruegg, Pamela L; Bauman, Dale E

2017-07-01

Recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) is a production-enhancing technology that allows the dairy industry to produce milk more efficiently. Concern has been raised that cows supplemented with rbST are at an increased risk of developing clinical mastitis, which would potentially increase the use of antimicrobial agents and increase human illnesses associated with antimicrobial-resistant bacterial pathogens delivered through the dairy beef supply. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative risk assessment to estimate the potential increased risk of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and subsequent adverse health outcomes as a result of rbST usage in dairy cattle. The quantitative risk assessment included the following steps: (i) release of antimicrobial-resistant organisms from the farm, (ii) exposure of humans via consumption of contaminated beef products, and (iii) consequence of the antimicrobial-resistant infection. The model focused on ceftiofur (parenteral and intramammary) and oxytetracycline (parenteral) treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle and tracked the bacteria Campylobacter spp., Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica, and Escherichia coli in the gastrointestinal tract of the cow. Parameter estimates were developed to be maximum risk to overestimate the risk to humans. The excess number of cows in the U.S. dairy herd that were predicted to carry resistant bacteria at slaughter due to rbST administration was negligible. The total number of excess human illnesses caused by resistant bacteria due to rbST administration was also predicted to be negligible with all risks considerably less than one event per 1 billion people at risk per year for all bacteria. The results indicate a high probability that the use of rbST according to label instructions presents a negligible risk for increasing the number of human illnesses and subsequent adverse outcomes associated with antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment in food industry: Theory and practical application.

PubMed

Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Boué, Géraldine

2018-04-01

The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat-treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same endpoint: up to the human health in the foie gras case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the

A Quantitative Risk-Benefit Analysis of Prophylactic Surgery Prior to Extended-Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carroll, Danielle; Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Antonsen, Erik

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Among otherwise healthy astronauts undertaking deep space missions, the risks for acute appendicitis (AA) and cholecystitis (AC) are not zero. If these conditions were to occur during spaceflight they may require surgery for definitive care. The proposed study quantifies and compares the risks of developing de novo AA and AC in-flight to the surgical risks of prophylactic laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) and cholecystectomy (LC) using NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM). METHODS: The IMM is a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts medical events during spaceflight missions and estimates the impact of these medical events on crew health. In this study, four Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were created to assess the probability of an astronaut developing in-flight small-bowel obstruction (SBO) following prophylactic 1) LA, 2) LC, 3) LA and LC, or 4) neither surgery (SR# S-20160407-351). Model inputs were drawn from a large, population-based 2011 Swedish study that examined the incidence and risks of post-operative SBO over a 5-year follow-up period. The study group included 1,152 patients who underwent LA, and 16,371 who underwent LC. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that prophylactic LA may yield higher mission risks than the control DRM. Complete analyses are pending and will be subsequently available. DISCUSSION: The risk versus benefits of prophylactic surgery in astronauts to decrease the probability of acute surgical events during spaceflight has only been qualitatively examined in prior studies. Within the assumptions and limitations of the IMM, this work provides the first quantitative guidance that has previously been lacking to this important question for future deep space exploration missions.

Utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in risk assessment: Alkylphenols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, B.D.; Toole, A.P.; Callahan, B.G.

1991-12-01

Alkylphenols are a class of environmentally pervasive compounds, found both in natural (e.g., crude oils) and in anthropogenic (e.g., wood tar, coal gasification waste) materials. Despite the frequent environmental occurrence of these chemicals, there is a limited toxicity database on alkylphenols. The authors have therefore developed a 'toxicity equivalence approach' for alkylphenols which is based on their ability to inhibit, in a specific manner, the enzyme cyclooxygenase. Enzyme-inhibiting ability for individual alkylphenols can be estimated based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship developed by Dewhirst (1980) and is a function of the free hydroxyl group, electron-donating ring substituents, and hydrophobic aromaticmore » ring substituents. The authors evaluated the toxicological significance of cyclooxygenase inhibition by comparison of the inhibitory capacity of alkylphenols with the inhibitory capacity of acetylsalicylic acid, or aspirin, a compound whose low-level effects are due to cyclooxygenase inhibition. Since nearly complete absorption for alkylphenols and aspirin is predicted, based on estimates of hydrophobicity and fraction of charged molecules at gastrointestinal pHs, risks from alkylphenols can be expressed directly in terms of 'milligram aspirin equivalence,' without correction for absorption differences. They recommend this method for assessing risks of mixtures of alkylphenols, especially for those compounds with no chronic toxicity data.38 references.« less

Quantitative Experimental Determination of Primer-Dimer Formation Risk by Free-Solution Conjugate Electrophoresis

PubMed Central

Desmarais, Samantha M.; Leitner, Thomas; Barron, Annelise E.

2012-01-01

DNA barcodes are short, unique ssDNA primers that “mark” individual biomolecules. To gain better understanding of biophysical parameters constraining primer-dimer formation between primers that incorporate barcode sequences, we have developed a capillary electrophoresis method that utilizes drag-tag-DNA conjugates to quantify dimerization risk between primer-barcode pairs. Results obtained with this unique free-solution conjugate electrophoresis (FSCE) approach are useful as quantitatively precise input data to parameterize computation models of dimerization risk. A set of fluorescently labeled, model primer-barcode conjugates were designed with complementary regions of differing lengths to quantify heterodimerization as a function of temperature. Primer-dimer cases comprised two 30-mer primers, one of which was covalently conjugated to a lab-made, chemically synthesized poly-N-methoxyethylglycine drag-tag, which reduced electrophoretic mobility of ssDNA to distinguish it from ds primer-dimers. The drag-tags also provided a shift in mobility for the dsDNA species, which allowed us to quantitate primer-dimer formation. In the experimental studies, pairs of oligonucleotide primer-barcodes with fully or partially complementary sequences were annealed, and then separated by free-solution conjugate CE at different temperatures, to assess effects on primer-dimer formation. When less than 30 out of 30 basepairs were bonded, dimerization was inversely correlated to temperature. Dimerization occurred when more than 15 consecutive basepairs formed, yet non-consecutive basepairs did not create stable dimers even when 20 out of 30 possible basepairs bonded. The use of free-solution electrophoresis in combination with a peptoid drag-tag and different fluorophores enabled precise separation of short DNA fragments to establish a new mobility shift assay for detection of primer-dimer formation. PMID:22331820

Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-03

SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11 . SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION... 11 Connecting technical risk and types of complexity...24 Figure 11 . Complexity evolution throughout the systems acquisition lifecycle ......................................... 25

A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics.

PubMed

Ronza, A; Carol, S; Espejo, V; Vílchez, J A; Arnaldos, J

2006-01-16

A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.

A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men.

PubMed

Gerbi, Gemechu B; Habtemariam, Tsegaye; Tameru, Berhanu; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida

2012-01-01

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

A quantitative assessment of the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain via legal trade of live poultry.

PubMed

Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Lainez, Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

2010-05-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free-trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV-infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 x 10(-3), suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.

Occurrence and quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in soil and air samples.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2014-09-01

Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts can be transmitted by the fecal-oral route and may cause gastrointestinal parasitic zoonoses. These zoonoses are common in rural zones due to the parasites being harbored in fecally contaminated soil. This study assessed the risk of illness (giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis) from inhaling and/or ingesting soil and/or airborne dust in Potam, Mexico. To assess the risk of infection, Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was employed, with the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard exposure, (3) dose-response, and (4) risk characterization. Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts were observed in 52% and 57%, respectively, of total soil samples (n=21), and in 60% and 80%, respectively, of air samples (n=12). The calculated annual risks were higher than 9.9 × 10(-1) for both parasites in both types of sample. Soil and air inhalation and/or ingestion are important vehicles for these parasites. To our knowledge, the results obtained in the present study represent the first QMRAs for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis due to soil and air inhalation/ingestion in Mexico. In addition, this is the first evidence of the microbial air quality around these parasites in rural zones. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Application of quantitative microbial risk assessments for estimation of risk management metrics: Clostridium perfringens in ready-to-eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products as an example.

PubMed

Crouch, Edmund A; Labarre, David; Golden, Neal J; Kause, Janell R; Dearfield, Kerry L

2009-10-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service is exploring quantitative risk assessment methodologies to incorporate the use of the Codex Alimentarius' newly adopted risk management metrics (e.g., food safety objectives and performance objectives). It is suggested that use of these metrics would more closely tie the results of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to public health outcomes. By estimating the food safety objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption) and the performance objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at a specified step in the food chain before the time of consumption), risk managers will have a better understanding of the appropriate level of protection (ALOP) from microbial hazards for public health protection. We here demonstrate a general methodology that allows identification of an ALOP and evaluation of corresponding metrics at appropriate points in the food chain. It requires a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment, the example used being the Monte Carlo QMRA for Clostridium perfringens in ready-to eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products, with minor modifications to evaluate and abstract required measures. For demonstration purposes, the QMRA model was applied specifically to hot dogs produced and consumed in the United States. Evaluation of the cumulative uncertainty distribution for illness rate allows a specification of an ALOP that, with defined confidence, corresponds to current industry practices.

Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

PubMed

Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

2010-08-01

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the

Comparison of recreational health risks associated with surfing and swimming in dry weather and post-storm conditions at Southern California beaches using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

PubMed

Tseng, Linda Y; Jiang, Sunny C

2012-05-01

Southern California is an increasingly urbanized hotspot for surfing, thus it is of great interest to assess the human illness risks associated with this popular ocean recreational water sport from exposure to fecal bacteria contaminated coastal waters. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were applied to eight popular Southern California beaches using readily available enterococcus and fecal coliform data and dose-response models to compare health risks associated with surfing during dry weather and storm conditions. The results showed that the level of gastrointestinal illness risks from surfing post-storm events was elevated, with the probability of exceeding the US EPA health risk guideline up to 28% of the time. The surfing risk was also elevated in comparison with swimming at the same beach due to ingestion of greater volume of water. The study suggests that refinement of dose-response model, improving monitoring practice and better surfer behavior surveillance will improve the risk estimation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological survey of quantitative ultrasound in risk assessment of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

PubMed

Ou, Ling-Chun; Sun, Zih-Jie; Chang, Yin-Fan; Chang, Chin-Sung; Chao, Ting-Hsing; Kuo, Po-Hsiu; Lin, Ruey-Mo; Wu, Chih-Hsing

2013-01-01

The risk assessment of falls is important, but still unsatisfactory and time-consuming. Our objective was to assess quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the risk assessment of falls. Our study was designed as epidemiological cross-sectional study occurring from March 2009 to February 2010 by community survey at a medical center. The participants were collected from systemic sample of 1,200 community-dwelling people (Male/Female = 524/676) 40 years old and over in Yunlin County, Mid-Taiwan. Structural questionnaires including socioeconomic status, living status, smoking and drinking habits, exercise and medical history were completed. Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the non-dominant distal radial area (QUS-R) and the left calcaneal area (QUS-C) were measured. The overall prevalence of falls was 19.8%. In men, the independently associated factors for falls were age (OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.01~1.06), fracture history (OR: 1.89; 95%CI: 1.12~3.19), osteoarthritis history (OR: 3.66; 95%CI: 1.15~11.64) and speed of sound (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.99~1.00; p<0.05) by QUS-R. In women, the independently associated factors for falls were current drinking (OR: 3.54; 95%CI: 1.35∼9.31) and broadband ultrasound attenuation (OR: 0.98; 95%CI: 0.97~0.99; p<0.01) by QUS-C. The cutoffs at -2.5< T-score<-1 derived using QUS-R (OR: 2.85; 95%CI: 1.64~4.96; p<0.01) in men or T-score ≦-2.5 derived using QUS-C (OR: 2.72; 95%CI: 1.42~5.21; p<0.01) in women showed an independent association with falls. The lowest T-score derived using either QUS-R or QUS-C was also revealed as an independent factor for falls in both men (OR: 2.13; 95%CI: 1.03~4.43; p<0.05) and women (OR: 2.36; 95%CI: 1.13~4.91; p<0.05). Quantitative ultrasounds, measured either at the radial or calcaneal area, are convenient tools by which to assess the risk of falls in middle-aged and elderly people.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

Risk Perception as the Quantitative Parameter of Ethics and Responsibility in Disaster Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro

2014-05-01

Intensity of impacts of natural disasters is increasing with climate and ecological changes spread. Frequency of disasters is increasing, and recurrence of catastrophes characterizing by essential spatial heterogeneity. Distribution of losses is fundamentally non-linear and reflects complex interrelation of natural, social and environmental factor in the changing world on multi scale range. We faced with new types of risks, which require a comprehensive security concept. Modern understanding of complex security, and complex risk management require analysis of all natural and social phenomena, involvement of all available data, constructing of advanced analytical tools, and transformation of our perception of risk and security issues. Traditional deterministic models used for risk analysis are difficult applicable for analysis of social issues, as well as for analysis of multi scale multi-physics phenomena quantification. Also parametric methods are not absolutely effective because the system analyzed is essentially non-ergodic. The stochastic models of risk analysis are applicable for quantitative analysis of human behavior and risk perception. In framework of risk analysis models the risk perception issues were described. Risk is presented as the superposition of distribution (f(x,y)) and damage functions (p(x,y)): P →δΣ x,yf(x,y)p(x,y). As it was shown risk perception essentially influents to the damage function. Basing on the prospect theory and decision making under uncertainty on cognitive bias and handling of risk, modification of damage function is proposed: p(x,y|α(t)). Modified damage function includes an awareness function α(t), which is the system of risk perception function (rp) and function of education and log-term experience (c) as: α(t) → (c - rp). Education function c(t) describes the trend of education and experience. Risk perception function rp reflects security concept of human behavior, is the basis for prediction of socio-economic and

Quantitative assessment of the risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA.

PubMed

Kamakawa, H; Koiwai, M; Satomura, S; Eto, M; Sugiura, K

2009-08-01

Up to October 2004, dogs and cats imported into Japan were subjected to a quarantine regimen which consisted of vaccination and a 30- to 365-day waiting period in the country of origin and a 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Japan. This regimen was replaced by a new one, consisting of vaccination, antibody level titration and a 180-day waiting period in the country of origin, in November 2004. To evaluate the effect of this policy change, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken. The risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA under the old - and new - regimens was quantitatively assessed and compared. Under the new regimen, rabies will enter Japan once every 4932 years (90% confidence interval 1812-13 412 years) through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA. Under the old regimen, rabies would enter Japan once every 70 years (39-205 years), 83 years (45-267 years) or 190 years (104-609 years) assuming that the animal departs the country of origin 30 days, 180 days or 365 days after vaccination, respectively. This indicates the policy change would reduce the risk by a factor of 1/25-1/70.

The use of mode of action information in risk assessment: quantitative key events/dose-response framework for modeling the dose-response for key events.

PubMed

Simon, Ted W; Simons, S Stoney; Preston, R Julian; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Doerrer, Nancy G; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A; McMullin, Tami S; McQueen, Charlene A; Rowlands, J Craig

2014-08-01

The HESI RISK21 project formed the Dose-Response/Mode-of-Action Subteam to develop strategies for using all available data (in vitro, in vivo, and in silico) to advance the next-generation of chemical risk assessments. A goal of the Subteam is to enhance the existing Mode of Action/Human Relevance Framework and Key Events/Dose Response Framework (KEDRF) to make the best use of quantitative dose-response and timing information for Key Events (KEs). The resulting Quantitative Key Events/Dose-Response Framework (Q-KEDRF) provides a structured quantitative approach for systematic examination of the dose-response and timing of KEs resulting from a dose of a bioactive agent that causes a potential adverse outcome. Two concepts are described as aids to increasing the understanding of mode of action-Associative Events and Modulating Factors. These concepts are illustrated in two case studies; 1) cholinesterase inhibition by the pesticide chlorpyrifos, which illustrates the necessity of considering quantitative dose-response information when assessing the effect of a Modulating Factor, that is, enzyme polymorphisms in humans, and 2) estrogen-induced uterotrophic responses in rodents, which demonstrate how quantitative dose-response modeling for KE, the understanding of temporal relationships between KEs and a counterfactual examination of hypothesized KEs can determine whether they are Associative Events or true KEs.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: HSPF Setup, Application, and Calibration of Flows and Microbial Fate and Transport on an Example Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) infrastructure that automates the manual process of characterizing transport of pathogens and microorganisms, from the source of release to a point of exposure, has been developed by loosely configuring a set of modules and process-...

Skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment for occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dye ingredients.

PubMed

Goebel, Carsten; Diepgen, Thomas L; Blömeke, Brunhilde; Gaspari, Anthony A; Schnuch, Axel; Fuchs, Anne; Schlotmann, Kordula; Krasteva, Maya; Kimber, Ian

2018-06-01

Occupational exposure of hairdressers to hair dyes has been associated with the development of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) involving the hands. p-Phenylenediamine (PPD) and toluene-2,5-diamine (PTD) have been implicated as important occupational contact allergens. To conduct a quantitative risk assessment for the induction of contact sensitization to hair dyes in hairdressers, available data from hand rinsing studies following typical occupational exposure conditions to PPD, PTD and resorcinol were assessed. By accounting for wet work, uneven exposure and inter-individual variability for professionals, daily hand exposure concentrations were derived. Secondly, daily hand exposure was compared with the sensitization induction potency of the individual hair dye defined as the No Expected Sensitization Induction Levels (NESIL). For PPD and PTD hairdresser hand exposure levels were 2.7 and 5.9 fold below the individual NESIL. In contrast, hand exposure to resorcinol was 50 fold below the NESIL. Correspondingly, the risk assessment for PPD and PTD indicates that contact sensitization may occur, when skin protection and skin care are not rigorously applied. We conclude that awareness of health risks associated with occupational exposure to hair dyes, and of the importance of adequate protective measures, should be emphasized more fully during hairdresser education and training. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Measures of Mineral Supply Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, K. R.

2009-12-01

Almost all metals and many non-metallic minerals are traded internationally. An advantage of global mineral markets is that minerals can be obtained from the globally lowest-cost source. For example, one rare-earth element (REE) mine in China, Bayan Obo, is able to supply most of world demand for rare earth elements at a cost significantly less than its main competitors. Concentration of global supplies at a single mine raises significant political risks, illustrated by China’s recent decision to prohibit the export of some REEs and severely limit the export of others. The expected loss of REE supplies will have a significant impact on the cost and production of important national defense technologies and on alternative energy programs. Hybrid vehicles and wind-turbine generators, for example, require REEs for magnets and batteries. Compact fluorescent light bulbs use REE-based phosphors. These recent events raise the general issue of how to measure the degree of supply risk for internationally sourced minerals. Two factors, concentration of supply and political risk, must first be addressed. Concentration of supply can be measured with standard economic tools for measuring industry concentration, using countries rather than firms as the unit of analysis. There are many measures of political risk available. That of the OECD is a measure of a country’s commitment to rule-of-law and enforcement of contracts, as well as political stability. Combining these measures provides a comparative view of mineral supply risk across commodities and identifies several minerals other than REEs that could suddenly become less available. Combined with an assessment of the impact of a reduction in supply, decision makers can use these measures to prioritize risk reduction efforts.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Models for Consumption of Raw Vegetables Irrigated with Reclaimed Water

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Andrew J.; Stagnitti, Frank; Premier, Robert; Boland, Anne-Maree; Hale, Glenn

2006-01-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment models for estimating the annual risk of enteric virus infection associated with consuming raw vegetables that have been overhead irrigated with nondisinfected secondary treated reclaimed water were constructed. We ran models for several different scenarios of crop type, viral concentration in effluent, and time since last irrigation event. The mean annual risk of infection was always less for cucumber than for broccoli, cabbage, or lettuce. Across the various crops, effluent qualities, and viral decay rates considered, the annual risk of infection ranged from 10−3 to 10−1 when reclaimed-water irrigation ceased 1 day before harvest and from 10−9 to 10−3 when it ceased 2 weeks before harvest. Two previously published decay coefficients were used to describe the die-off of viruses in the environment. For all combinations of crop type and effluent quality, application of the more aggressive decay coefficient led to annual risks of infection that satisfied the commonly propounded benchmark of ≤10−4, i.e., one infection or less per 10,000 people per year, providing that 14 days had elapsed since irrigation with reclaimed water. Conversely, this benchmark was not attained for any combination of crop and water quality when this withholding period was 1 day. The lower decay rate conferred markedly less protection, with broccoli and cucumber being the only crops satisfying the 10−4 standard for all water qualities after a 14-day withholding period. Sensitivity analyses on the models revealed that in nearly all cases, variation in the amount of produce consumed had the most significant effect on the total uncertainty surrounding the estimate of annual infection risk. The models presented cover what would generally be considered to be worst-case scenarios: overhead irrigation and consumption of vegetables raw. Practices such as subsurface, furrow, or drip irrigation and postharvest washing/disinfection and food preparation

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

PubMed

Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

2017-02-01

Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-29

Deshmukh ,  2010),  p.  128].     1. RISK  MANAGEMENT  IS  MANY...final  report  of  a  previous  SERC  research  topic,  valuing  flexibility  (RT-­‐18),  is  dispositive  ( Deshmukh ...Hall.       Beer,  S.  (1979).  The  heart  of  the  enterprise.  New  York:  Wiley.       Deshmukh ,

A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.

PubMed

Snary, Emma L; Swart, Arno N; Simons, Robin R L; Domingues, Ana Rita Calado; Vigre, Hakan; Evers, Eric G; Hald, Tine; Hill, Andrew A

2016-03-01

A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of microbial source tracking markers in recreational water contaminated with fresh untreated and secondary treated sewage.

PubMed

Ahmed, Warish; Hamilton, Kerry A; Lobos, Aldo; Hughes, Bridie; Staley, Christopher; Sadowsky, Michael J; Harwood, Valerie J

2018-05-14

Microbial source tracking (MST) methods have provided the means to identify sewage contamination in recreational waters, but the risk associated with elevated levels of MST targets such as sewage-associated Bacteroides HF183 and other markers is uncertain. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) modeling allows interpretation of MST data in the context of the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness caused by exposure to known reference pathogens. In this study, five sewage-associated, quantitative PCR (qPCR) MST markers [Bacteroides HF183 (HF183), Methanobrevibacter smithii nifH (nifH), human adenovirus (HAdV), human polyomavirus (HPyV) and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV)] were evaluated to determine at what concentration these nucleic acid markers reflected a significant health risk from exposure to fresh untreated or secondary treated sewage in beach water. The QMRA models were evaluated for a target probability of illness of 36 GI illnesses/1000 swimming events (i.e., risk benchmark 0.036) for the reference pathogens norovirus (NoV) and human adenovirus 40/41 (HAdV 40/41). Sewage markers at several dilutions exceeded the risk benchmark for reference pathogens NoV and HAdV 40/41. HF183 concentrations 3.22 × 10 3 (for both NoV and HAdV 40/41) gene copies (GC)/100 mL of water contaminated with fresh untreated sewage represented risk >0.036. Similarly, HF183 concentrations 3.66 × 10 3 (for NoV and HAdV 40/41) GC/100 mL of water contaminated with secondary treated sewage represented risk >0.036. HAdV concentration as low as 4.11 × 10 1 GC/100 mL of water represented risk >0.036 when water was contaminated with secondary treated sewage. Results of this study provide a valuable context for water quality managers to evaluate human health risks associated with contamination from fresh sewage. The approach described here may also be useful in the future for evaluating health risks from contamination with aged or treated sewage or feces from other

Quantitative Risk - Phases 1 & 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-12

MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11 . SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY... 11 Connecting technical risk and types of complexity...24 Figure 11 . Complexity evolution throughout the systems acquisition lifecycle

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2017-12-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2018-06-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Evaluation of bacterial pathogen diversity, abundance and health risks in urban recreational water by amplicon next-generation sequencing and quantitative PCR.

PubMed

Cui, Qijia; Fang, Tingting; Huang, Yong; Dong, Peiyan; Wang, Hui

2017-07-01

The microbial quality of urban recreational water is of great concern to public health. The monitoring of indicator organisms and several pathogens alone is not sufficient to accurately and comprehensively identify microbial risks. To assess the levels of bacterial pathogens and health risks in urban recreational water, we analyzed pathogen diversity and quantified four pathogens in 46 water samples collected from waterbodies in Beijing Olympic Forest Park in one year. The pathogen diversity revealed by 16S rRNA gene targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) showed that 16 of 40 genera and 13 of 76 reference species were present. The most abundant species were Acinetobacter johnsonii, Mycobacterium avium and Aeromonas spp. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of Escherichia coli (uidA), Aeromonas (aerA), M. avium (16S rRNA), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (oaa) and Salmonella (invA) showed that the aerA genes were the most abundant, occurring in all samples with concentrations of 10 4-6 genome copies/100mL, followed by oaa, invA and M. avium. In total, 34.8% of the samples harbored all genes, indicating the prevalence of these pathogens in this recreational waterbody. Based on the qPCR results, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) showed that the annual infection risks of Salmonella, M. avium and P. aeruginosa in five activities were mostly greater than the U.S. EPA risk limit for recreational contacts, and children playing with water may be exposed to the greatest infection risk. Our findings provide a comprehensive understanding of bacterial pathogen diversity and pathogen abundance in urban recreational water by applying both NGS and qPCR. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Quantitative risk-benefit analysis of fish consumption for women of child-bearing age in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Chen, M Y Y; Wong, W W K; Chung, S W C; Tran, C H; Chan, B T P; Ho, Y Y; Xiao, Y

2014-01-01

Maternal fish consumption is associated with both risks from methylmercury (MeHg) and beneficial effects from omega-3 fatty acids to the developing foetal brain. This paper assessed the dietary exposure to MeHg of women of child-bearing age (20-49 years) in Hong Kong, and conducted risk-benefit analysis in terms of the effects in children's intelligent quotient (IQ) based on local data and the quantitative method derived by the expert consultation of FAO/WHO. Results showed that average and high consumers consume 450 and 1500 g of fish (including seafood) per week, respectively. About 11% of women of child-bearing age had a dietary exposure to MeHg exceeding the PTWI of 1.6 µg kg(-1) bw. In pregnant women MeHg intake may pose health risks to the developing foetuses. For average consumers, eating any of the 19 types of the most commonly consumed fish and seafood during pregnancy would result in 0.79-5.7 IQ points gain by their children. For high consumers, if they only ate tuna during pregnancy, it would cause 2.3 IQ points reduction in their children. The results indicated that for pregnant women the benefit outweighed the risk associated with eating fish if they consume different varieties of fish in moderation.

Quantitative Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldwin, Grover H.

The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

Risk Factors for Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence Identified Using Quantitative Computed Tomography Analysis of Hematoma Volume and Density.

PubMed

Stavrinou, Pantelis; Katsigiannis, Sotirios; Lee, Jong Hun; Hamisch, Christina; Krischek, Boris; Mpotsaris, Anastasios; Timmer, Marco; Goldbrunner, Roland

2017-03-01

Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), a common condition in elderly patients, presents a therapeutic challenge with recurrence rates of 33%. We aimed to identify specific prognostic factors for recurrence using quantitative analysis of hematoma volume and density. We retrospectively reviewed radiographic and clinical data of 227 CSDHs in 195 consecutive patients who underwent evacuation of the hematoma through a single burr hole, 2 burr holes, or a mini-craniotomy. To examine the relationship between hematoma recurrence and various clinical, radiologic, and surgical factors, we used quantitative image-based analysis to measure the hematoma and trapped air volumes and the hematoma densities. Recurrence of CSDH occurred in 35 patients (17.9%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density were independent risk factors for recurrence. All 3 evacuation methods were equally effective in draining the hematoma (71.7% vs. 73.7% vs. 71.9%) without observable differences in postoperative air volume captured in the subdural space. Quantitative image analysis provided evidence that percentage of hematoma drained and postoperative CSDH density are independent prognostic factors for subdural hematoma recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesias, I. C. P.

2018-01-01

In the Philippines, rootcrop-based food products are gaining popularity in street food trade. However, a number of street-vended food products in the country are reported to be contaminated with E. coli posing possible risk among consumers. In this study, information on quantitative risk assessment of E. coli in street-vended cassava-based delicacies was generated. The assessment started with the prevalence and concentration of E. coli at post production in packages of the cassava-based delicacies. Combase growth predictor was used to trace the microbial population of E. coli in each step of the food chain. The @Risk software package, version 6 (Palisade USA) was used to run the simulations. Scenarios in the post-production to consumption pathway were simulated. The effect was then assessed in relation to exposure to the defined infective dose. In the worst case scenario, a minimum and most likely concentration of 6.3 and 7.8 log CFU of E. coli per serving respectively were observed. The simulation revealed that lowering the temperature in the chain considerably decreased the E. coli concentration prior to consumption and subsequently decreased the percentage of exposure to the infective dose. Exposure to infective dose however was increased with longer lag time from postproduction to consumption.

Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

PubMed

Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

2014-06-15

The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis strategy: building a culturally sensitive mid-range theory of risk perception using literary, quantitative, and qualitative methods.

PubMed

Siaki, Leilani A; Loescher, Lois J; Trego, Lori L

2013-03-01

This article presents a discussion of development of a mid-range theory of risk perception. Unhealthy behaviours contribute to the development of health inequalities worldwide. The link between perceived risk and successful health behaviour change is inconclusive, particularly in vulnerable populations. This may be attributed to inattention to culture. The synthesis strategy of theory building guided the process using three methods: (1) a systematic review of literature published between 2000-2011 targeting perceived risk in vulnerable populations; (2) qualitative and (3) quantitative data from a study of Samoan Pacific Islanders at high risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Main concepts of this theory include risk attention, appraisal processes, cognition, and affect. Overarching these concepts is health-world view: cultural ways of knowing, beliefs, values, images, and ideas. This theory proposes the following: (1) risk attention varies based on knowledge of the health risk in the context of health-world views; (2) risk appraisals are influenced by affect, health-world views, cultural customs, and protocols that intersect with the health risk; (3) strength of cultural beliefs, values, and images (cultural identity) mediate risk attention and risk appraisal influencing the likelihood that persons will engage in health-promoting behaviours that may contradict cultural customs/protocols. Interventions guided by a culturally sensitive mid-range theory may improve behaviour-related health inequalities in vulnerable populations. The synthesis strategy is an intensive process for developing a culturally sensitive mid-range theory. Testing of the theory will ascertain its usefulness for reducing health inequalities in vulnerable groups. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

PubMed

Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

2015-09-01

This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Quantitative falls risk estimation through multi-sensor assessment of standing balance.

PubMed

Greene, Barry R; McGrath, Denise; Walsh, Lorcan; Doheny, Emer P; McKeown, David; Garattini, Chiara; Cunningham, Clodagh; Crosby, Lisa; Caulfield, Brian; Kenny, Rose A

2012-12-01

Falls are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization and one of the principal causes of death and disability in older adults worldwide. Measures of postural stability have been associated with the incidence of falls in older adults. The aim of this study was to develop a model that accurately classifies fallers and non-fallers using novel multi-sensor quantitative balance metrics that can be easily deployed into a home or clinic setting. We compared the classification accuracy of our model with an established method for falls risk assessment, the Berg balance scale. Data were acquired using two sensor modalities--a pressure sensitive platform sensor and a body-worn inertial sensor, mounted on the lower back--from 120 community dwelling older adults (65 with a history of falls, 55 without, mean age 73.7 ± 5.8 years, 63 female) while performing a number of standing balance tasks in a geriatric research clinic. Results obtained using a support vector machine yielded a mean classification accuracy of 71.52% (95% CI: 68.82-74.28) in classifying falls history, obtained using one model classifying all data points. Considering male and female participant data separately yielded classification accuracies of 72.80% (95% CI: 68.85-77.17) and 73.33% (95% CI: 69.88-76.81) respectively, leading to a mean classification accuracy of 73.07% in identifying participants with a history of falls. Results compare favourably to those obtained using the Berg balance scale (mean classification accuracy: 59.42% (95% CI: 56.96-61.88)). Results from the present study could lead to a robust method for assessing falls risk in both supervised and unsupervised environments.

Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2010-06-01

A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US

Quantitative risk assessment of CO2 transport by pipelines--a review of uncertainties and their impacts.

PubMed

Koornneef, Joris; Spruijt, Mark; Molag, Menso; Ramírez, Andrea; Turkenburg, Wim; Faaij, André

2010-05-15

A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO(2) pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperature, section length, diameter, orifice size, type and direction of release, meteorological conditions, jet diameter, vapour mass fraction in the release and the dose-effect relationship for CO(2). A sensitivity analysis with these parameters is performed using release, dispersion and impact models. The results show that the knowledge gaps and uncertainties have a large effect on the accuracy of the assessed risks of CO(2) pipelines. In this study it is found that the individual risk contour can vary between 0 and 204 m from the pipeline depending on assumptions made. In existing studies this range is found to be between <1m and 7.2 km. Mitigating the relevant risks is part of current practice, making them controllable. It is concluded that QRA for CO(2) pipelines can be improved by validation of release and dispersion models for high-pressure CO(2) releases, definition and adoption of a universal dose-effect relationship and development of a good practice guide for QRAs for CO(2) pipelines. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

PubMed

Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

2014-10-01

This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variability in PAH-DNA adduct measurements in peripheral mononuclear cells: implications for quantitative cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Dickey, C; Santella, R M; Hattis, D; Tang, D; Hsu, Y; Cooper, T; Young, T L; Perera, F P

1997-10-01

Biomarkers such as DNA adducts have significant potential to improve quantitative risk assessment by characterizing individual differences in metabolism of genotoxins and DNA repair and accounting for some of the factors that could affect interindividual variation in cancer risk. Inherent uncertainty in laboratory measurements and within-person variability of DNA adduct levels over time are putatively unrelated to cancer risk and should be subtracted from observed variation to better estimate interindividual variability of response to carcinogen exposure. A total of 41 volunteers, both smokers and nonsmokers, were asked to provide a peripheral blood sample every 3 weeks for several months in order to specifically assess intraindividual variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adduct levels. The intraindividual variance in PAH-DNA adduct levels, together with measurement uncertainty (laboratory variability and unaccounted for differences in exposure), constituted roughly 30% of the overall variance. An estimated 70% of the total variance was contributed by interindividual variability and is probably representative of the true biologic variability of response to carcinogenic exposure in lymphocytes. The estimated interindividual variability in DNA damage after subtracting intraindividual variability and measurement uncertainty was 24-fold. Inter-individual variance was higher (52-fold) in persons who constitutively lack the Glutathione S-Transferase M1 (GSTM1) gene which is important in the detoxification pathway of PAH. Risk assessment models that do not consider the variability of susceptibility to DNA damage following carcinogen exposure may underestimate risks to the general population, especially for those people who are most vulnerable.

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

Approaches to acceptable risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whipple, C

Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, inmore » a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.« less

Consumers' behavior in quantitative microbial risk assessment for pathogens in raw milk: Incorporation of the likelihood of consumption as a function of storage time and temperature.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Paterlini, Franco; Rizzi, Rita; Guitian, Javier

2016-02-01

Foodborne disease as a result of raw milk consumption is an increasing concern in Western countries. Quantitative microbial risk assessment models have been used to estimate the risk of illness due to different pathogens in raw milk. In these models, the duration and temperature of storage before consumption have a critical influence in the final outcome of the simulations and are usually described and modeled as independent distributions in the consumer phase module. We hypothesize that this assumption can result in the computation, during simulations, of extreme scenarios that ultimately lead to an overestimation of the risk. In this study, a sensorial analysis was conducted to replicate consumers' behavior. The results of the analysis were used to establish, by means of a logistic model, the relationship between time-temperature combinations and the probability that a serving of raw milk is actually consumed. To assess our hypothesis, 2 recently published quantitative microbial risk assessment models quantifying the risks of listeriosis and salmonellosis related to the consumption of raw milk were implemented. First, the default settings described in the publications were kept; second, the likelihood of consumption as a function of the length and temperature of storage was included. When results were compared, the density of computed extreme scenarios decreased significantly in the modified model; consequently, the probability of illness and the expected number of cases per year also decreased. Reductions of 11.6 and 12.7% in the proportion of computed scenarios in which a contaminated milk serving was consumed were observed for the first and the second study, respectively. Our results confirm that overlooking the time-temperature dependency may yield to an important overestimation of the risk. Furthermore, we provide estimates of this dependency that could easily be implemented in future quantitative microbial risk assessment models of raw milk pathogens

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Spray Irrigation of Dairy Manure Based on an Empirical Fate and Transport Model

PubMed Central

Burch, Tucker R.; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel P.; Kieke, Burney A.; Larson, Rebecca A.; Firnstahl, Aaron D.; Rule, Ana M.

2017-01-01

Background: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. Objectives: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. Methods: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irrigation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. Results: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. Conclusions: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk. https

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burch, Tucker R; Spencer, Susan K.; Stokdyk, Joel; Kieke, Burney A; Larson, Rebecca A; Firnstahl, Aaron; Rule, Ana M; Borchardt, Mark A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment I. Methods and metrics for defining exposure-response relationships and points of departure (PoDs)

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the discussion, conclusions, and points of consensus of the IWGT Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (QWG) based on a meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil October 31–November 2, 2013. Topics addressed incl...

Quantitative risk assessment of entry of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia through live cattle imported from northwestern Ethiopia.

PubMed

Woube, Yilkal Asfaw; Dibaba, Asseged Bogale; Tameru, Berhanu; Fite, Richard; Nganwa, David; Robnett, Vinaida; Demisse, Amsalu; Habtemariam, Tsegaye

2015-11-01

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a highly contagious bacterial disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony (SC) bovine biotype (MmmSC). It has been eradicated from many countries; however, the disease persists in many parts of Africa and Asia. CBPP is one of the major trade-restricting diseases of cattle in Ethiopia. In this quantitative risk assessment the OIE concept of zoning was adopted to assess the entry of CBPP into an importing country when up to 280,000 live cattle are exported every year from the northwestern proposed disease free zone (DFZ) of Ethiopia. To estimate the level of risk, a six-tiered risk pathway (scenario tree) was developed, evidences collected and equations generated. The probability of occurrence of the hazard at each node was modelled as a probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation (@RISK software) at 10,000 iterations to account for uncertainty and variability. The uncertainty and variability of data points surrounding the risk estimate were further quantified by sensitivity analysis. In this study a single animal destined for export from the northwestern DFZ of Ethiopia has a CBPP infection probability of 4.76×10(-6) (95% CI=7.25×10(-8) 1.92×10(-5)). The probability that at least one infected animal enters an importing country in one year is 0.53 (90% CI=0.042-0.97). The expected number of CBPP infected animals exported any given year is 1.28 (95% CI=0.021-5.42). According to the risk estimate, an average of 2.73×10(6) animals (90% CI=10,674-5.9×10(6)) must be exported to get the first infected case. By this account it would, on average, take 10.15 years (90% CI=0.24-23.18) for the first infected animal to be included in the consignment. Sensitivity analysis revealed that prevalence and vaccination had the highest impact on the uncertainty and variability of the overall risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative imaging methods in osteoporosis.

PubMed

Oei, Ling; Koromani, Fjorda; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Zillikens, M Carola; Oei, Edwin H G

2016-12-01

Osteoporosis is characterized by a decreased bone mass and quality resulting in an increased fracture risk. Quantitative imaging methods are critical in the diagnosis and follow-up of treatment effects in osteoporosis. Prior radiographic vertebral fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) as a quantitative parameter derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) are among the strongest known predictors of future osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, current clinical decision making relies heavily on accurate assessment of these imaging features. Further, novel quantitative techniques are being developed to appraise additional characteristics of osteoporosis including three-dimensional bone architecture with quantitative computed tomography (QCT). Dedicated high-resolution (HR) CT equipment is available to enhance image quality. At the other end of the spectrum, by utilizing post-processing techniques such as the trabecular bone score (TBS) information on three-dimensional architecture can be derived from DXA images. Further developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) seem promising to not only capture bone micro-architecture but also characterize processes at the molecular level. This review provides an overview of various quantitative imaging techniques based on different radiological modalities utilized in clinical osteoporosis care and research.

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MICROBIAL AGENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Compared to chemical risk assessment, the process for microbial agents and infectious disease is more complex because of host factors and the variety of settings in which disease transmission can occur. While the National Academy of Science has established a paradigm for performi...

Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.

PubMed

Kerestecioğlu, Merih

2016-09-01

The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow. © The Author(s) 2016.

Evaluation of New Zealand's high-seas bottom trawl closures using predictive habitat models and quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Penney, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

A quantitative risk-assessment system (QR-AS) evaluating operation safety of Organic Rankine Cycle using flammable mixture working fluid.

PubMed

Tian, Hua; Wang, Xueying; Shu, Gequn; Wu, Mingqiang; Yan, Nanhua; Ma, Xiaonan

2017-09-15

Mixture of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide shows excellent cycle performance in Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) used for engine waste heat recovery, but the unavoidable leakage in practical application is a threat for safety due to its flammability. In this work, a quantitative risk assessment system (QR-AS) is established aiming at providing a general method of risk assessment for flammable working fluid leakage. The QR-AS covers three main aspects: analysis of concentration distribution based on CFD simulations, explosive risk assessment based on the TNT equivalent method and risk mitigation based on evaluation results. A typical case of propane/carbon dioxide mixture leaking from ORC is investigated to illustrate the application of QR-AS. According to the assessment results, proper ventilation speed, safe mixture ratio and location of gas-detecting devices have been proposed to guarantee the security in case of leakage. The results revealed that this presented QR-AS was reliable for the practical application and the evaluation results could provide valuable guidance for the design of mitigation measures to improve the safe performance of ORC system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Mabikwa, Onkabetse V; Greenwood, Darren C; Baxter, Paul D; Fleming, Sarah J

2017-03-14

One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology. The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described. Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards. Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Distinguishing nanomaterial particles from background airborne particulate matter for quantitative exposure assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono-Ogasawara, Mariko; Serita, Fumio; Takaya, Mitsutoshi

2009-10-01

As the production of engineered nanomaterials quantitatively expands, the chance that workers involved in the manufacturing process will be exposed to nanoparticles also increases. A risk management system is needed for workplaces in the nanomaterial industry based on the precautionary principle. One of the problems in the risk management system is difficulty of exposure assessment. In this article, examples of exposure assessment in nanomaterial industries are reviewed with a focus on distinguishing engineered nanomaterial particles from background nanoparticles in workplace atmosphere. An approach by JNIOSH (Japan National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health) to quantitatively measure exposure to carbonaceous nanomaterials is also introduced. In addition to real-time measurements and qualitative analysis by electron microscopy, quantitative chemical analysis is necessary for quantitatively assessing exposure to nanomaterials. Chemical analysis is suitable for quantitative exposure measurement especially at facilities with high levels of background NPs.

Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Laurent, Olivier; Ancelet, Sophie; Richardson, David B; Hémon, Denis; Ielsch, Géraldine; Demoury, Claire; Clavel, Jacqueline; Laurier, Dominique

2013-05-01

Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

Integrated Quantitative Cancer Risk Assessment of Inorganic Arsenic

EPA Science Inventory

This paper attempts to make an integrated risk assessment of arsenic, using data on humans exposed to arsenic via inhalation and ingestion. he data useful for making an integrated analysis and data gaps are discussed. rsenic provides a rare opportunity to compare the cancer risk ...

Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

2017-02-01

Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

Potential usefulness of a topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers for predicting the recurrence risk after curative resection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawata, Y.; Niki, N.; Ohmatsu, H.; Satake, M.; Kusumoto, M.; Tsuchida, T.; Aokage, K.; Eguchi, K.; Kaneko, M.; Moriyama, N.

2014-03-01

In this work, we investigate a potential usefulness of a topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers for predicting the recurrence risk after curative resection. The elucidation of the subcategorization of a pulmonary nodule type in CT images is an important preliminary step towards developing the nodule managements that are specific to each patient. We categorize lung cancers by analyzing volumetric distributions of CT values within lung cancers via a topic model such as latent Dirichlet allocation. Through applying our scheme to 3D CT images of nonsmall- cell lung cancer (maximum lesion size of 3 cm) , we demonstrate the potential usefulness of the topic model-based categorization of lung cancers as quantitative CT biomarkers.

Development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for evaluating environmental threat posed by the three first EU watch-list pharmaceuticals to urban wastewater treatment plants: An Irish case study.

PubMed

Tahar, Alexandre; Tiedeken, Erin Jo; Clifford, Eoghan; Cummins, Enda; Rowan, Neil

2017-12-15

Contamination of receiving waters with pharmaceutical compounds is of pressing concern. This constitutes the first study to report on the development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment (RA) model for evaluating the environmental threat posed by three EU watch list pharmaceutical compounds namely, diclofenac, 17-beta-estradiol and 17-alpha-ethinylestradiol, to aquatic ecosystems using Irish data as a case study. This RA model adopts the Irish Environmental Protection Agency Source-Pathway-Receptor concept to define relevant parameters for calculating low, medium or high risk score for each agglomeration of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), which include catchment, treatments, operational and management factors. This RA model may potentially be used on a national scale to (i) identify WWTPs that pose a particular risk as regards releasing disproportionally high levels of these pharmaceutical compounds, and (ii) help identify priority locations for introducing or upgrading control measures (e.g. tertiary treatment, source reduction). To assess risks for these substances of emerging concern, the model was applied to 16 urban WWTPs located in different regions in Ireland that were scored for the three different compounds and ranked as low, medium or high risk. As a validation proxy, this case study used limited monitoring data recorded at some these plants receiving waters. It is envisaged that this semi-quantitative RA approach may aid other EU countries investigate and screen for potential risks where limited measured or predicted environmental pollutant concentrations and/or hydrological data are available. This model is semi-quantitative, as other factors such as influence of climate change and drug usage or prescription data will need to be considered in a future point for estimating and predicting risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Racial Differences in Quantitative Measures of Area and Volumetric Breast Density

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Anne Marie; Keller, Brad M.; Pantalone, Lauren M.; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Synnestvedt, Marie; Conant, Emily F.; Armstrong, Katrina; Kontos, Despina

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Increased breast density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer and also decreases the sensitivity of mammographic screening. The purpose of our study was to compare breast density for black and white women using quantitative measures. Methods: Breast density was assessed among 5282 black and 4216 white women screened using digital mammography. Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density was obtained from radiologists’ reports. Quantitative measures for dense area, area percent density (PD), dense volume, and volume percent density were estimated using validated, automated software. Breast density was categorized as dense or nondense based on BI-RADS categories or based on values above and below the median for quantitative measures. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of having dense breasts by race, adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, menopause status, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, parity and age at first birth, and current hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: There was a statistically significant interaction of race and BMI on breast density. After accounting for age, BMI, and breast cancer risk factors, black women had statistically significantly greater odds of high breast density across all quantitative measures (eg, PD nonobese odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02 to 1.37, P = .03, PD obese OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.53, P = .02). There was no statistically significant difference in BI-RADS density by race. Conclusions: After accounting for age, BMI, and other risk factors, black women had higher breast density than white women across all quantitative measures previously associated with breast cancer risk. These results may have implications for risk assessment and screening. PMID:27130893

Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Machdar, E; van der Steen, N P; Raschid-Sally, L; Lens, P N L

2013-04-01

In Accra, Ghana, a majority of inhabitants lives in over-crowded areas with limited access to piped water supply, which is often also intermittent. This study assessed in a densely populated area the risk from microbial contamination of various sources of drinking water, by conducting a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk to human health from microorganism exposure and dose-response relationships. Furthermore the cost-effectiveness in reducing the disease burden through targeted interventions was evaluated. Five risk pathways for drinking water were identified through a survey (110 families), namely household storage, private yard taps, communal taps, communal wells and water sachets. Samples from each source were analyzed for Escherichia coli and Ascaris contamination. Published ratios between E. coli and other pathogens were used for the QMRA and disease burden calculations. The major part of the burden of disease originated from E. coli O157:H7 (78%) and the least important contributor was Cryptosporidium (0.01%). Other pathogens contributed 16% (Campylobacter), 5% (Rotavirus) and 0.3% (Ascaris). The sum of the disease burden of these pathogens was 0.5 DALYs per person per year, which is much higher than the WHO reference level. The major contamination pathway was found to be household storage. Disinfection of water at household level was the most cost-effective intervention (<5 USD/DALY-averted) together with hygiene education. Water supply network improvements were significantly less cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative cancer risk assessment for occupational exposures to asphalt fumes during built-up roofing asphalt (BURA) operations.

PubMed

Rhomberg, Lorenz R; Mayfield, David B; Goodman, Julie E; Butler, Eric L; Nascarella, Marc A; Williams, Daniel R

2015-01-01

The International Agency for Research on Cancer qualitatively characterized occupational exposure to oxidized bitumen emissions during roofing as probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). We examine chemistry, exposure, epidemiology and animal toxicity data to explore quantitative risks for roofing workers applying built-up roofing asphalt (BURA). Epidemiology studies do not consistently report elevated risks, and generally do not have sufficient exposure information or adequately control for confounders, precluding their use for dose-response analysis. Dermal carcinogenicity bioassays using mice report increased tumor incidence with single high doses. In order to quantify potential cancer risks, we develop time-to-tumor model methods [consistent with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response analysis and mixtures guidelines] using the dose-time-response shape of concurrent exposures to benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) as concurrent controls (which had several exposure levels) to infer presumed parallel dose-time-response curves for BURA-fume condensate. We compare EPA relative potency factor approaches, based on observed relative potency of BURA to B[a]P in similar experiments, and direct observation of the inferred BURA dose-time-response (scaled to humans) as means for characterizing a dermal unit risk factor. We apply similar approaches to limited data on asphalt-fume inhalation and respiratory cancers in rats. We also develop a method for adjusting potency estimates for asphalts that vary in composition using measured fluorescence. Overall, the various methods indicate that cancer risks to roofers from both dermal and inhalation exposure to BURA are within a range typically deemed acceptable within regulatory frameworks. The approaches developed may be useful in assessing carcinogenic potency of other complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic compounds.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for an Underground Blowout Scenario in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) Well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyagi, M.; Zulqarnain, M.

2017-12-01

Offshore oil and gas exploration and production operations, involve the use of some of the cutting edge and challenging technologies of the modern time. These technological complex operations involves the risk of major accidents as well, which have been demonstrated by disasters such as the explosion and fire on the UK production platform piper alpha, the Canadian semi-submersible drilling rig Ocean Ranger and the explosion and capsizing of Deepwater horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico. By conducting Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), safety of various operations as well as their associated risks and significance during the entire life phase of an offshore project can be quantitatively estimated. In an underground blowout, the uncontrolled formation fluids from higher pressure formation may charge up shallower overlying low pressure formations or may migrate to sea floor. Consequences of such underground blowouts range from no visible damage at the surface to the complete loss of well, loss of drilling rig, seafloor subsidence or hydrocarbons discharged to the environment. These blowouts might go unnoticed until the over pressured sands, which are the result of charging from higher pressure reservoir due to an underground blowout. Further, engineering formulas used to estimate the fault permeability and thickness are very simple in nature and may add to uncertainty in the estimated parameters. In this study the potential of a deepwater underground blowout are assessed during drilling life phase of a well in Popeye-Genesis field reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico to estimate the time taken to charge a shallower zone to its leak-off test (LOT) value. Parametric simulation results for selected field case show that for relatively high permeability (k = 40mD) fault connecting a deep over-pressured zone to a shallower low-pressure zone of similar reservoir volumes, the time to recharge the shallower zone up to its threshold LOT value is about 135 years. If the ratio of the

Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

PubMed

Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

2018-02-01

Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China].

PubMed

Cao, Mengsi; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Lishi; Yan, Weixing

2016-02-01

To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees; the detection rates were 3%-98% and the average contents were 0.26-3.26 μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following: male adults were 10.03 and (9.34 ± 12.61) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1)(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg(-1)·d (-1), male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1),school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62 ± 25.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22 ± 28.91) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1). MOEs

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smart, Christian

1998-01-01

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen

Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

PubMed

Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

2015-01-01

Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2011-06-01

A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the

Evaluation of New Zealand’s High-Seas Bottom Trawl Closures Using Predictive Habitat Models and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Penney, Andrew J.; Guinotte, John M.

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas. PMID:24358162

Performance of Two Quantitative PCR Methods for Microbial Source Tracking of Human Sewage and Implications for Microbial Risk Assessment in Recreational Waters

PubMed Central

Staley, Christopher; Gordon, Katrina V.; Schoen, Mary E.

2012-01-01

Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for assessment of recreational water quality and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant source has been diluted in environmental waters is needed. This study determined the limits of detection and quantification of the human-associated Bacteroides sp. (HF183) and human polyomavirus (HPyV) qPCR methods for sewage diluted in buffer and in five ambient, Florida water types (estuarine, marine, tannic, lake, and river). HF183 was quantifiable in sewage diluted up to 10−6 in 500-ml ambient-water samples, but HPyVs were not quantifiable in dilutions of >10−4. Specificity, which was assessed using fecal composites from dogs, birds, and cattle, was 100% for HPyVs and 81% for HF183. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) estimated the possible norovirus levels in sewage and the human health risk at various sewage dilutions. When juxtaposed with the MST marker detection limits, the QMRA analysis revealed that HF183 was detectable when the modeled risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness was at or below the benchmark of 10 illnesses per 1,000 exposures, but the HPyV method was generally not sensitive enough to detect potential health risks at the 0.01 threshold for frequency of illness. The tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity in the MST methods indicates that HF183 data should be interpreted judiciously, preferably in conjunction with a more host-specific marker, and that better methods of concentrating HPyVs from environmental waters are needed if this method is to be useful in a watershed management or monitoring context. PMID:22885746

A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals: risk of rabies reintroduction to the United kingdom.

PubMed

Goddard, A D; Donaldson, N M; Horton, D L; Kosmider, R; Kelly, L A; Sayers, A R; Breed, A C; Freuling, C M; Müller, T; Shaw, S E; Hallgren, G; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2012-10-01

In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5), 1.06 × 10(-4)) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3), 5.65 × 10(-3)) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement. © 2012 Crown Copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of the HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

PubMed Central

Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

2015-01-01

Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) shows increased public health risk associated with exposure to river water under conditions of riverbed sediment resuspension.

PubMed

Abia, Akebe Luther King; Ubomba-Jaswa, Eunice; Genthe, Bettina; Momba, Maggy Ndombo Benteke

2016-10-01

Although higher microbial concentrations have been reported in sediments than in the overlying water column, most quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have not clearly indicated the contribution of sediment-borne pathogens to estimated risks. Thus, the present study aimed at determining the public health risk associated with exposure to pathogenic bacteria in polluted river water under undisturbed conditions and conditions of sediment resuspension in the Apies River, Gauteng, South Africa. Microbial pathogens were isolated and identified using culture and molecular methods. The beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of infection (Pi) with the various pathogens, following accidental/intentional ingestion of 1mL or 100mL (or 50mL) of untreated river water. Mean wet season Escherichia coli counts ranged between 5.8E+01 and 8.8E+04MPN/100mL (water column) and between 2.40E+03 and 1.28E+05MPN/100mL (sediments). Mean dry season E. coli counts ranged between 5.11E+00 and 3.40E+03MPN/100mL (water column) and between 5.09E+00 and 6.30E+03MPN/100mL (sediments). Overall (water and sediments) Vibrio cholerae was the most detected pathogen (58.8%) followed by Salmonella spp. (23.9%) and Shigella (10.1%). Ingestion of 1mL of river water could lead to 0%-4% and 1%-74% Pi with E. coli during the dry and wet season, respectively. During the dry season, the Pi with V. cholerae, Salmonella spp. and Shigella spp. were 0%-1.39%, 0%-4.11% and 0%-0.16% respectively, depending on volume of water ingested. The risks of infections with all microorganisms increased during the wet season. A 2-log increase in water E. coli count following sediments disturbance led to approximately 10 times higher Pi with E. coli than when sediments were undisturbed. Therefore, the use of the untreated water from the Apies River for drinking, household purposes or recreational activities poses a potential health risk to the users of the river. Copyright © 2016

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the importation of dogs and cats worldwide.

PubMed

Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K; Hosoi, Y; Yamada, A; Snary, E L

2017-04-01

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10-9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10-11-6·48 × 10-9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170-94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.

Quantitative risk assessment to compare the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via quarantine, the Pet Travel Scheme and the EU Pet Movement Policy.

PubMed

Ramnial, V; Kosmider, R; Aylan, O; Freuling, C; Müller, T; Fooks, A R

2010-08-01

Rabies was eradicated from the UK in 1922 through strict controls of dog movement and investigation of every incident of disease. Amendments were made to the UK quarantine laws and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was subsequently introduced in 2000 for animals entering the UK from qualifying listed countries. European Regulation 998/2003 on the non-commercial movement of pet animals initiated the European Union Pet Movement Policy (EUPMP) in July 2004. The introduction of EUPMP harmonized the movement of pet animals within the EU (EUPMP(listed)) but raised the possibility of domestic animals entering the UK from a non-EU state where rabies is endemic (EUPMP(unlisted)). A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the risk of rabies entering the UK from Turkey via companion animals that are incubating the disease and enter through PETS or EUPMP compared to quarantine. Specifically, the risk was assessed by estimating the annual probability of rabies entering the UK and the number of years between rabies entries for each scheme. The model identified that the probability of rabies entering the UK via the three schemes is highly dependent on compliance. If 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMP(unlisted) (at the current level of importation) present a lower risk than quarantine, i.e. the number of years between rabies entry is more than 170 721 years for PETS and 60 163 years for EUPMP(unlisted) compared to 41 851 years for quarantine (with 95% certainty). If less than 100% compliance is assumed, PETS and EUPMP(unlisted) (at the current level of importation) present a higher risk. In addition, EUPMP(listed) and EUPMP(unlisted) (at an increased level of importation) present a higher risk than quarantine or PETS at 100% compliance and at an uncertain level of compliance.

Detection of Legionella by quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for monitoring and risk assessment.

PubMed

Krøjgaard, Louise H; Krogfelt, Karen A; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Uldum, Søren A

2011-11-21

Culture and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays for the detection of Legionella were compared on samples from a residential area before and after two interventions. A total of 84 samples were collected from shower hoses and taps as first flush samples and at constant temperature. Samples were grouped according to the origin of the sample, a) circulation water b) water from empty apartments c) water from shower hoses. The aims were to investigate the usefulness of qPCR compared to culture for monitoring remedial actions for elimination of Legionella bacteria and as a tool for risk assessment. In water collected from the apartments Legionella spp were detected by qPCR in the concentration range from LOQ to 9.6*105GU/L while L. pneumophila were detected in a range from LOQ to 6.8*105 GU/L. By culturing, the legionellae were detected in the range from below detection limit (> 10 CFU/L) to 1.6*106 CFU/L. In circulating water and in first flush water from shower hoses, culture and qPCR showed the same tendencies. The overall correlation between the bacteria number detected by culture and the two developed qPCR assays (L. spp and L. pneumophila) was relatively poor (r2 = 0.31 for culture and Legionella spp. assay, r2 = 0.20 for culture and L. pneumophila assay). Detection by qPCR was suitable for monitoring changes in the concentration of Legionella but the precise determination of bacteria is difficult. Risk assessment by qPCR only on samples without any background information regarding treatment, timing, etc is dubious. However, the rapid detection by qPCR of high concentrations of Legionella - especially Legionella pneumophila - is valuable as an indicator of risk, although it may be false positive compared to culture results. On the other hand, the detection of a low number of bacteria by qPCR is a strong indication for the absence of risk.

Defining High-Risk Precursor Signaling to Advance Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Prevention

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

KEYWORDS: 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Aim 1: Functional analysis of progenitor and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1Functional...and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1: Quantitation of LP (Luminal Progenitor) and basal stem cell (MASC) populations A. Quantitation of...LP and basal stem cell (MASC) populations We have continued to add patients to the cohorts between months 12 and 24. (This reporting period

Quantitative Criteria to Screen for Cannabis Use Disorder.

PubMed

Casajuana, Cristina; López-Pelayo, Hugo; Miquel, Laia; Balcells-Oliveró, María Mercedes; Colom, Joan; Gual, Antoni

2018-06-27

The Standard Joint Unit (1 SJU = 7 mg of 9-Tetrahydrocannabinol) simplifies the exploration of risky patterns of cannabis use. This study proposes a preliminary quantitative cutoff criterion to screen for cannabis use disorder (CUD). Socio-demographical data and information on cannabis quantities, frequency of use, and risk for CUD (measured with the Cannabis Abuse Screening Test (CAST) of cannabis users recruited in Barcelona (from February 2015 to June 2016) were collected. CAST scores were categorized into low, moderate, and high risk for CUD, based on the SJU consumed and frequency. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis related daily SJU with CUD. Participants (n = 473) were on average 29 years old (SD = 10), men (77.1%), and single (74.6%). With an average of 4 joints per smoking day, 82.5% consumed cannabis almost every day. Risk for CUD (9.40% low, 23.72% moderate, 66.88% high) increased significantly with more frequency and quantities consumed. The ROC analyses suggest 1.2 SJU per day as a cutoff criterion to screen for at least moderate risk for CUD (sensitivity 69.4%, specificity 63.6%). Frequency and quantity should be considered when exploring cannabis risks. A 1 SJU per day is proposed as a preliminary quantitative-based criterion to screen users with at least a moderate risk for CUD. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Visual and Quantitative Assessment of Coronary Stenoses at Angiography Versus Fractional Flow Reserve: The Impact of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Adjedj, Julien; Xaplanteris, Panagiotis; Toth, Gabor; Ferrara, Angela; Pellicano, Mariano; Ciccarelli, Giovanni; Floré, Vincent; Barbato, Emanuele; De Bruyne, Bernard

2017-07-01

The correlation between angiographic assessment of coronary stenoses and fractional flow reserve (FFR) is weak. Whether and how risk factors impact the diagnostic accuracy of angiography is unknown. We sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of angiography by visual estimate and by quantitative coronary angiography when compared with FFR and evaluate the influence of risk factors (RF) on this accuracy. In 1382 coronary stenoses (1104 patients), percent diameter stenosis by visual estimation (DS VE ) and by quantitative coronary angiography (DS QCA ) was compared with FFR. Patients were divided into 4 subgroups, according to the presence of RFs, and the relationship between DS VE , DS QCA , and FFR was analyzed. Overall, DS VE was significantly higher than DS QCA ( P <0.0001); nonetheless, when examined by strata of DS, DS VE was significantly smaller than DS QCA in mild stenoses, although the reverse held true for severe stenoses. Compared with FFR, a large scatter was observed for both DS VE and DS QCA . When using a dichotomous FFR value of 0.80, C statistic was significantly higher for DS VE than for DS QCA (0.712 versus 0.640, respectively; P <0.001). C statistics for DS VE decreased progressively as RFs accumulated (0.776 for ≤1 RF, 0.750 for 2 RFs, 0.713 for 3 RFs and 0.627 for ≥4 RFs; P =0.0053). In addition, in diabetics, the relationship between FFR and angiographic indices was particularly weak (C statistics: 0.524 for DS VE and 0.511 for DS QCA ). Overall, DS VE has a better diagnostic accuracy than DS QCA to predict the functional significance of coronary stenosis. The predictive accuracy of angiography is moderate in patients with ≤1 RFs, but weakens as RFs accumulate, especially in diabetics. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Characterizing trabecular bone structure for assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Tsai, Halley; Wang, Xixi; Hobbs, Susan K.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

2015-03-01

While the proximal femur is preferred for measuring bone mineral density (BMD) in fracture risk estimation, the introduction of volumetric quantitative computed tomography has revealed stronger associations between BMD and spinal fracture status. In this study, we propose to capture properties of trabecular bone structure in spinal vertebrae with advanced second-order statistical features for purposes of fracture risk assessment. For this purpose, axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) images were acquired from 28 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. A semi-automated method was used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the central vertebral slice with a circular region of interest (ROI) to exclude cortical bone; pixels within were converted to values indicative of BMD. Six second-order statistical features derived from gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) and the mean BMD within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a generalized radial basis functions (GRBF) neural network to predict the failure load of the specimens; true failure load was measured through biomechanical testing. Prediction performance was evaluated with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric. The best prediction performance was observed with GLCM feature `correlation' (RMSE = 1.02 ± 0.18), which significantly outperformed all other GLCM features (p < 0.01). GLCM feature correlation also significantly outperformed MDCTmeasured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 ± 0.17) (p< 10-4). These results suggest that biomechanical strength prediction in spinal vertebrae can be significantly improved through characterization of trabecular bone structure with GLCM-derived texture features.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

Critical Race Quantitative Intersections: A "testimonio" Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Covarrubias, Alejandro; Nava, Pedro E.; Lara, Argelia; Burciaga, Rebeca; Vélez, Verónica N.; Solorzano, Daniel G.

2018-01-01

The educational pipeline has become a commonly referenced depiction of educational outcomes for racialized groups across the country. While visually impactful, an overreliance on decontextualized quantitative data often leads to majoritarian interpretations. Without sociohistorical contexts, these interpretations run the risk of perpetuating…

Quantitative approach for incorporating methylmercury risks and omega-3 fatty acid benefits in developing species-specific fish consumption advice.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary L; Toal, Brian F

2009-02-01

Despite general agreement about the toxicity of methylmercury (MeHg), fish consumption advice remains controversial. Concerns have been raised that negative messages will steer people away from fish and omega-3 fatty acid (FA) benefits. One approach is to provide advice for individual species that highlights beneficial fish while cautioning against riskier fish. Our goal in this study was to develop a method to quantitatively analyze the net risk/benefit of individual fish species based on their MeHg and omega-3 FA content. We identified dose-response relationships for MeHg and omega-3 FA effects on coronary heart disease (CHD) and neurodevelopment. We used the MeHg and omega-3 FA content of 16 commonly consumed species to calculate the net risk/benefit for each species. Estimated omega-3 FA benefits outweigh MeHg risks for some species (e.g., farmed salmon, herring, trout); however, the opposite was true for others (swordfish, shark). Other species were associated with a small net benefit (e.g., flounder, canned light tuna) or a small net risk (e.g., canned white tuna, halibut). These results were used to place fish into one of four meal frequency categories, with the advice tentative because of limitations in the underlying dose-response information. Separate advice appears warranted for the neurodevelopmental risk group versus the cardiovascular risk group because we found a greater net benefit from fish consumption for the cardiovascular risk group. This research illustrates a framework for risk/benefit analysis that can be used to develop categories of consumption advice ranging from "do not eat" to "unlimited," with the caveat that unlimited may need to be tempered for certain fish (e.g., farm-raised salmon) because of other contaminants and end points (e.g., cancer risk). Uncertainties exist in the underlying dose-response relationships, pointing in particular to the need for more research on the adverse effects of MeHg on cardiovascular end points.

Quantitative Approach for Incorporating Methylmercury Risks and Omega-3 Fatty Acid Benefits in Developing Species-Specific Fish Consumption Advice

PubMed Central

Ginsberg, Gary L.; Toal, Brian F.

2009-01-01

Background Despite general agreement about the toxicity of methylmercury (MeHg), fish consumption advice remains controversial. Concerns have been raised that negative messages will steer people away from fish and omega-3 fatty acid (FA) benefits. One approach is to provide advice for individual species that highlights beneficial fish while cautioning against riskier fish. Objectives Our goal in this study was to develop a method to quantitatively analyze the net risk/benefit of individual fish species based on their MeHg and omega-3 FA content. Methods We identified dose–response relationships for MeHg and omega-3 FA effects on coronary heart disease (CHD) and neurodevelopment. We used the MeHg and omega-3 FA content of 16 commonly consumed species to calculate the net risk/benefit for each species. Results Estimated omega-3 FA benefits outweigh MeHg risks for some species (e.g., farmed salmon, herring, trout); however, the opposite was true for others (swordfish, shark). Other species were associated with a small net benefit (e.g., flounder, canned light tuna) or a small net risk (e.g., canned white tuna, halibut). These results were used to place fish into one of four meal frequency categories, with the advice tentative because of limitations in the underlying dose–response information. Separate advice appears warranted for the neurodevelopmental risk group versus the cardiovascular risk group because we found a greater net benefit from fish consumption for the cardiovascular risk group. Conclusions This research illustrates a framework for risk/benefit analysis that can be used to develop categories of consumption advice ranging from “do not eat” to “unlimited,” with the caveat that unlimited may need to be tempered for certain fish (e.g., farm-raised salmon) because of other contaminants and end points (e.g., cancer risk). Uncertainties exist in the underlying dose–response relationships, pointing in particular to the need for more research on

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling and quantitative methods.

PubMed

Edler, L; Poirier, K; Dourson, M; Kleiner, J; Mileson, B; Nordmann, H; Renwick, A; Slob, W; Walton, K; Würtzen, G

2002-01-01

The present review reports on the mathematical methods and statistical techniques presently available for hazard characterisation. The state of the art of mathematical modelling and quantitative methods used currently for regulatory decision-making in Europe and additional potential methods for risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet are described. Existing practices of JECFA, FDA, EPA, etc., are examined for their similarities and differences. A framework is established for the development of new and improved quantitative methodologies. Areas for refinement, improvement and increase of efficiency of each method are identified in a gap analysis. Based on this critical evaluation, needs for future research are defined. It is concluded from our work that mathematical modelling of the dose-response relationship would improve the risk assessment process. An adequate characterisation of the dose-response relationship by mathematical modelling clearly requires the use of a sufficient number of dose groups to achieve a range of different response levels. This need not necessarily lead to an increase in the total number of animals in the study if an appropriate design is used. Chemical-specific data relating to the mode or mechanism of action and/or the toxicokinetics of the chemical should be used for dose-response characterisation whenever possible. It is concluded that a single method of hazard characterisation would not be suitable for all kinds of risk assessments, and that a range of different approaches is necessary so that the method used is the most appropriate for the data available and for the risk characterisation issue. Future refinements to dose-response characterisation should incorporate more clearly the extent of uncertainty and variability in the resulting output.

Risk assessment of false-positive quantitative real-time PCR results in food, due to detection of DNA originating from dead cells.

PubMed

Wolffs, Petra; Norling, Börje; Rådström, Peter

2005-03-01

Real-time PCR technology is increasingly used for detection and quantification of pathogens in food samples. A main disadvantage of nucleic acid detection is the inability to distinguish between signals originating from viable cells and DNA released from dead cells. In order to gain knowledge concerning risks of false-positive results due to detection of DNA originating from dead cells, quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to investigate the degradation kinetics of free DNA in four types of meat samples. Results showed that the fastest degradation rate was observed (1 log unit per 0.5 h) in chicken homogenate, whereas the slowest rate was observed in pork rinse (1 log unit per 120.5 h). Overall results indicated that degradation occurred faster in chicken samples than in pork samples and faster at higher temperatures. Based on these results, it was concluded that, especially in pork samples, there is a risk of false-positive PCR results. This was confirmed in a quantitative study on cell death and signal persistence over a period of 28 days, employing three different methods, i.e. viable counts, direct qPCR, and finally floatation, a recently developed discontinuous density centrifugation method, followed by qPCR. Results showed that direct qPCR resulted in an overestimation of up to 10 times of the amount of cells in the samples compared to viable counts, due to detection of DNA from dead cells. However, after using floatation prior to qPCR, results resembled the viable count data. This indicates that by using of floatation as a sample treatment step prior to qPCR, the risk of false-positive PCR results due to detection of dead cells, can be minimized.

Quantitative assessment of background parenchymal enhancement in breast magnetic resonance images predicts the risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Luan; Li, Qiang; Gu, Yajia

2017-02-07

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association betweenthe quantitative assessment of background parenchymal enhancement rate (BPER) and breast cancer. From 14,033 consecutive patients who underwent breast MRI in our center, we randomly selected 101 normal controls. Then, we selected 101 women with benign breast lesions and 101 women with breast cancer who were matched for age and menstruation status. We evaluated BPER at early (2 minutes), medium (4 minutes) and late (6 minutes) enhanced time phases of breast MRI for quantitative assessment. Odds ratios (ORs) for risk of breast cancer were calculated using the receiver operating curve. The BPER increased in a time-dependent manner after enhancement in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Premenopausal women had higher BPER than postmenopausal women at early, medium and late enhanced phases. In the normal population, the OR for probability of breast cancer for premenopausal women with high BPER was 4.1 (95% CI: 1.7-9.7) and 4.6 (95% CI: 1.7-12.0) for postmenopausal women. The OR of breast cancer morbidity in premenopausal women with high BPER was 2.6 (95% CI: 1.1-6.4) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.2-6.1) for postmenopausal women. The BPER was found to be a predictive factor of breast cancer morbidity. Different time phases should be used to assess BPER in premenopausal and postmenopausal women.

Analyzing the impacts of global trade and investment on non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a critical review of methodological approaches used in quantitative analyses.

PubMed

Cowling, Krycia; Thow, Anne Marie; Pollack Porter, Keshia

2018-05-24

A key mechanism through which globalization has impacted health is the liberalization of trade and investment, yet relatively few studies to date have used quantitative methods to investigate the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors. Recent reviews of this literature have found heterogeneity in results and a range of quality across studies, which may be in part attributable to a lack of conceptual clarity and methodological inconsistencies. This study is a critical review of methodological approaches used in the quantitative literature on global trade and investment and diet, tobacco, alcohol, and related health outcomes, with the objective of developing recommendations and providing resources to guide future robust, policy relevant research. A review of reviews, expert review, and reference tracing were employed to identify relevant studies, which were evaluated using a novel quality assessment tool designed for this research. Eight review articles and 34 quantitative studies were identified for inclusion. Important ways to improve this literature were identified and discussed: clearly defining exposures of interest and not conflating trade and investment; exploring mechanisms of broader relationships; increasing the use of individual-level data; ensuring consensus and consistency in key confounding variables; utilizing more sector-specific versus economy-wide trade and investment indicators; testing and adequately adjusting for autocorrelation and endogeneity when using longitudinal data; and presenting results from alternative statistical models and sensitivity analyses. To guide the development of future analyses, recommendations for international data sources for selected trade and investment indicators, as well as key gaps in the literature, are presented. More methodologically rigorous and consistent approaches in future quantitative studies on the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non

EVALUATING TOOLS AND MODELS USED FOR QUANTITATIVE EXTRAPOLATION OF IN VITRO TO IN VIVO DATA FOR NEUROTOXICANTS*

EPA Science Inventory

There are a number of risk management decisions, which range from prioritization for testing to quantitative risk assessments. The utility of in vitro studies in these decisions depends on how well the results of such data can be qualitatively and quantitatively extrapolated to i...

CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR QUANTITATIVE RESPONSE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The Relative Potency Factor approach (RPF) is used to normalize and combine different toxic potencies among a group of chemicals selected for cumulative risk assessment. The RPF method assumes that the slopes of the dose-response functions are all equal; but this method depends o...

Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research.

PubMed

Malouf, Reem; Redshaw, Maggie

2017-02-02

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women's perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies

Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

2016-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

Download TRIM.Risk

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

TRIM.Risk is used to integrate the information on exposure received from TRIM.FaTE or TRIM.Expo with that on dose-response or hazard assessment and to provide quantitative descriptions of risk or hazard and some of the attendant uncertainties.

Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products.

PubMed

Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth; Mur, Lina

2017-01-01

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US.

Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products

PubMed Central

Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth

2017-01-01

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10−3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10−3 for ASF, and 2.5*10−3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10−4 for ASF, and 1.56*10−3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US. PMID:28797058

Probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of norovirus from wastewater irrigated vegetables in Ghana using genome copies and fecal indicator ratio conversion for estimating exposure dose.

PubMed

Owusu-Ansah, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson; Sampson, Angelina; Amponsah, Samuel K; Abaidoo, Robert C; Dalsgaard, Anders; Hald, Tine

2017-12-01

The need to replace the commonly applied fecal indicator conversions ratio (an assumption of 1:10 -5 virus to fecal indicator organism) in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) with models based on quantitative data on the virus of interest has gained prominence due to the different physical and environmental factors that might influence the reliability of using indicator organisms in microbial risk assessment. The challenges facing analytical studies on virus enumeration (genome copies or particles) have contributed to the already existing lack of data in QMRA modelling. This study attempts to fit a QMRA model to genome copies of norovirus data. The model estimates the risk of norovirus infection from the intake of vegetables irrigated with wastewater from different sources. The results were compared to the results of a corresponding model using the fecal indicator conversion ratio to estimate the norovirus count. In all scenarios of using different water sources, the application of the fecal indicator conversion ratio underestimated the norovirus disease burden, measured by the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), when compared to results using the genome copies norovirus data. In some cases the difference was >2 orders of magnitude. All scenarios using genome copies met the 10 -4 DALY per person per year for consumption of vegetables irrigated with wastewater, although these results are considered to be highly conservative risk estimates. The fecal indicator conversion ratio model of stream-water and drain-water sources of wastewater achieved the 10 -6 DALY per person per year threshold, which tends to indicate an underestimation of health risk when compared to using genome copies for estimating the dose. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discriminative capacity of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound and of osteoporosis and fracture risk factors in postmenopausal women with osteoporotic fractures.

PubMed

Hernández, J L; Marin, F; González-Macías, J; Díez-Pérez, A; Vila, J; Giménez, S; Galán, B; Arenas, M S; Suárez, F; Gayola, L; Guillén, G; Sagredo, T; Belenguer, R; Moron, A; Arriaza, E

2004-04-01

Bone fragility fractures constitute the principal complication of osteoporosis. The identification of individuals at high risk of sustaining osteoporotic fractures is important for implementing preventive measures. The purpose of this study is to analyze the discriminative capacity of a series of osteoporosis and fracture risk factors, and of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS), in a population of postmenopausal women with a history of osteoporotic fracture. A cross-sectional analysis was made of a cohort of 5195 women aged 65 or older (mean +/- SD: 72.3 +/- 5.4 years) seen in 58 primary care centers in Spain. A total of 1042 women (20.1%) presented with a history of osteoporotic fracture. Most fractures (93%) were non-vertebral. Age-adjusted odds ratios corresponding to each decrease in one standard deviation of the different QUS parameters ranged from 1.47 to 1.55 (P < 0.001) for fractures. The age-adjusted multivariate analysis yielded the following risk factors independently associated with a history of osteoporotic fracture: number of fertile years, a family history of fracture, falls in the previous year, a history of chronic obstructive airway disease, the use of antiarrhythmic drugs, and a low value for any of the QUS parameters. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the best model was 0.656. In summary, a series of easily assessable osteoporotic fracture risk factors has been identified. QUS was shown to discriminate between women with and without a history of fracture, and constitutes a useful tool for assessing fracture risk. Various of the vertebral and hip fracture risk factors frequently cited in North American and British populations showed no discriminative capacity in our series--thus suggesting that such factors may not be fully applicable to our population and/or to the predominant type of fractures included in the present study.

Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction to Assess Response to Treatment of Bacterial Vaginosis and Risk of Preterm Birth.

PubMed

Abramovici, Adi; Lobashevsky, Elena; Cliver, Suzanne P; Edwards, Rodney K; Hauth, John C; Biggio, Joseph R

2015-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) bacterial load measurement is a valid method to assess response to treatment of bacterial vaginosis and risk of preterm birth in pregnant women. Secondary analysis by utilizing stored vaginal samples obtained during a previous randomized controlled trial studying the effect of antibiotics on preterm birth (PTB). All women had risk factors for PTB: (1) positive fetal fibronectin (n=146), (2) bacterial vaginosis (BV) and a prior PTB (n=43), or (3) BV and a prepregnancy weight<50 kg (n=54). Total and several individual BV-related bacteria loads were measured using qPCR for 16S rRNA. Loads were correlated with Nugent scores (Spearman correlation coefficients). Loads were compared pre- and posttreatment with Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Individual patient differences were examined with Wilcoxon signed-rank test. A total of 243 paired vaginal samples were available for analysis: 123 antibiotics and 120 placebo. Groups did not differ by risk factors for PTB. For all samples, bacterial loads were correlated with Nugent score and each of its specific bacterial components (all p<0.01). Baseline total bacterial load did not differ by treatment group (p=0.87). Posttreatment total bacterial load was significantly lower in the antibiotics group than the placebo group (p<0.01). Individual patient total bacterial load decreased significantly posttreatment in the antibiotics group (p<0.01), but not in the placebo group (p=0.12). The rate of PTB did not differ between groups (p=0.24). PTB relative risks calculated for BV positive versus BV negative women and women with the highest quartile total and individual bacterial loads were not statistically significant. qPCR correlates with Nugent score and demonstrates decreased bacterial load after antibiotic treatment. Therefore, it is a valid method of vaginal flora assessment in pregnant women who are at high risk for PTB. Thieme Medical Publishers

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

2017-03-21

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

2017-01-01

The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

SNP rs16906252C>T is an expression and methylation quantitative trait locus associated with an increased risk of developing MGMT-methylated colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kuroiwa-Trzmielina, Joice; Wang, Fan; Rapkins, Robert W.; Ward, Robyn L.; Buchanan, Daniel D.; Win, Aung Ko; Clendenning, Mark; Rosty, Christophe; Southey, Melissa C.; Winship, Ingrid M.; Hopper, John L.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Olivier, Jake; Hawkins, Nicholas J.; Hitchins, Megan P.

2016-01-01

Purpose Methylation of the MGMT promoter is the major cause of O6-methylguanine methyltransferase deficiency in cancer and has been associated with the T variant of the promoter-enhancer SNP rs16906252C>T. We sought evidence for an association between the rs16906252C>T genotype and increased risk of developing a subtype of colorectal cancer (CRC) featuring MGMT methylation, mediated by genotype-dependent epigenetic silencing within normal tissues. Experimental design By applying a molecular pathological epidemiology case-control study design, associations between rs16906252C>T and risk for CRC overall, and CRC stratified by MGMT methylation status, were estimated using multinomial logistic regression in two independent retrospective series of CRC cases and controls. The test sample comprised 1054 CRC cases and 451 controls from Sydney, Australia. The validation sample comprised 612 CRC cases and 245 controls from the Australasian Colon Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR). To determine if rs16906252C>T was linked to a constitutively altered epigenetic state, quantitative allelic expression and methylation analyses were performed in normal tissues. Results An association between rs16906252C>T and increased risk of developing MGMT-methylated CRC in the Sydney sample was observed (OR 3.3; 95%CI=2.0–5.3; P<0.0001), which was replicated in the ACCFR sample (OR 4.0; 95%CI=2.4–6.8; P<0.0001). The T allele demonstrated ~2.5-fold reduced transcription in normal colorectal mucosa from cases and controls, and was selectively methylated in a minority of normal cells, indicating rs16906252C>T represents an expression and methylation quantitative trait locus. Conclusions We provide evidence that rs16906252C>T is associated with elevated risk for MGMT-methylated CRC, likely mediated by constitutive epigenetic repression of the T allele. PMID:27267851

Vessel wall characterization using quantitative MRI: what's in a number?

PubMed

Coolen, Bram F; Calcagno, Claudia; van Ooij, Pim; Fayad, Zahi A; Strijkers, Gustav J; Nederveen, Aart J

2018-02-01

The past decade has witnessed the rapid development of new MRI technology for vessel wall imaging. Today, with advances in MRI hardware and pulse sequences, quantitative MRI of the vessel wall represents a real alternative to conventional qualitative imaging, which is hindered by significant intra- and inter-observer variability. Quantitative MRI can measure several important morphological and functional characteristics of the vessel wall. This review provides a detailed introduction to novel quantitative MRI methods for measuring vessel wall dimensions, plaque composition and permeability, endothelial shear stress and wall stiffness. Together, these methods show the versatility of non-invasive quantitative MRI for probing vascular disease at several stages. These quantitative MRI biomarkers can play an important role in the context of both treatment response monitoring and risk prediction. Given the rapid developments in scan acceleration techniques and novel image reconstruction, we foresee the possibility of integrating the acquisition of multiple quantitative vessel wall parameters within a single scan session.

A systematic review of quantitative burn wound microbiology in the management of burns patients.

PubMed

Halstead, Fenella D; Lee, Kwang Chear; Kwei, Johnny; Dretzke, Janine; Oppenheim, Beryl A; Moiemen, Naiem S

2018-02-01

The early diagnosis of infection or sepsis in burns are important for patient care. Globally, a large number of burn centres advocate quantitative cultures of wound biopsies for patient management, since there is assumed to be a direct link between the bioburden of a burn wound and the risk of microbial invasion. Given the conflicting study findings in this area, a systematic review was warranted. Bibliographic databases were searched with no language restrictions to August 2015. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed in duplicate using pre-defined criteria. Substantial heterogeneity precluded quantitative synthesis, and findings were described narratively, sub-grouped by clinical question. Twenty six laboratory and/or clinical studies were included. Substantial heterogeneity hampered comparisons across studies and interpretation of findings. Limited evidence suggests that (i) more than one quantitative microbiology sample is required to obtain reliable estimates of bacterial load; (ii) biopsies are more sensitive than swabs in diagnosing or predicting sepsis; (iii) high bacterial loads may predict worse clinical outcomes, and (iv) both quantitative and semi-quantitative culture reports need to be interpreted with caution and in the context of other clinical risk factors. The evidence base for the utility and reliability of quantitative microbiology for diagnosing or predicting clinical outcomes in burns patients is limited and often poorly reported. Consequently future research is warranted. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of low bone health using quantitative ultrasound in Indian women aged 41-60 years: Its association with nutrition and other related risk factors.

PubMed

Shenoy, Shweta; Chawla, Jasmine Kaur; Gupta, Swati; Sandhu, Jaspal Singh

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to find the prevalence of low bone health conditions and assess associated nutritional and other risk factors in Indian women aged 41-60 years. A total of 1,911 women participated in this cross-sectional study. Bone health was assessed using an Omnisense multisite quantitative ultrasound bone densitometer on two sites (radius and tibia). Crude prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis was found to be 30.09% and 19.89%, respectively. The Indian women were deficient in a majority of nutrients. Postmenopause, hysterectomy, hyperthyroid, hypothyroid, hypertension, low physical activity, low sun exposure, high stress levels, and low calcium levels were found to be independent risk factors of low bone health.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review

Bovine meat versus pork in Toxoplasma gondii transmission in Italy: A quantitative risk assessment model.

PubMed

Belluco, Simone; Patuzzi, Ilaria; Ricci, Antonia

2018-03-23

Toxoplasma gondii is a widespread zoonotic parasite with a high seroprevalence in the human population and the ability to infect almost all warm blooded animals. Humans can acquire toxoplasmosis from different transmission routes and food plays a critical role. Within the food category, meat is of utmost importance, as it may contain bradyzoites inside tissue cysts, which can potentially cause infection after ingestion if parasites are not inactivated through freezing or cooking before consumption. In Italy, the most commonly consumed meat-producing animal species are bovines and pigs. However, T. gondii prevalence and consumption habits for meat of these animal species are very different. There is debate within the scientific community concerning which of these animal species is the main source of meat-derived human toxoplasmosis. The aim of this work was to build a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the yearly probability of acquiring toxoplasmosis infection due to consumption of bovine meat and pork (excluding cured products) in Italy, taking into account the different eating habits. The model was fitted with data obtained from the literature regarding: bradyzoite concentrations, portion size, dose-response relation, prevalence of T. gondii in bovines and swine, meat consumption and meat preparation habits. Alternative handling scenarios were considered. The model estimated the risk per year of acquiring T. gondii infection in Italy from bovine and swine meat to be 0.034% and 0.019%, respectively. Results suggest that, due to existing eating habits, bovine meat can be a not negligible source of toxoplasmosis in Italy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VaR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-30

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS The use of quantitative cost risk analysis tools can be valuable in measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004...assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost, schedule, and...www.amazon.com Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review (RAND Working Paper WR-112-RC

Prediction of Emergent Heart Failure Death by Semi-Quantitative Triage Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Van Spall, Harriette G. C.; Atzema, Clare; Schull, Michael J.; Newton, Gary E.; Mak, Susanna; Chong, Alice; Tu, Jack V.; Stukel, Thérèse A.; Lee, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

Objectives Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients. Methods We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes. Results Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001). Conclusions A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients. PMID:21853068

Quantitative Assessment of Current Risks to Harlequin Ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, from the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Parker, Keith R.; Murphy, Stephen M.; Day, Robert H.; Bence, A. Edward; Neff, Jerry M.; Wiens, John A.

2012-01-01

Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were adversely affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual Exxon Valdez oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (e.g., a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001–2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400–4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual Exxon Valdez oil two decades later are essentially non-existent. PMID:23723680

Agreement between calcaneal quantitative ultrasound and osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians in identifying individuals at risk of osteoporosis

PubMed Central

Chin, Kok-Yong; Low, Nie Yen; Kamaruddin, Alia Annessa Ain; Dewiputri, Wan Ilma; Soelaiman, Ima-Nirwana

2017-01-01

Background Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is a useful tool in osteoporosis screening. However, QUS device may not be available at all primary health care settings. Osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) is a simple algorithm for osteoporosis screening that does not require any sophisticated instruments. This study explored the possibility of replacing QUS with OSTA by determining their agreement in identifying individuals at risk of osteoporosis. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted to recruit Malaysian men and women aged ≥50 years. Their bone health status was measured using a calcaneal QUS device and OSTA. The association between OSTA and QUS was determined using Spearman’s correlation and their agreement was assessed using Cohen Kappa and receiver-operating curve. Results All QUS indices correlated significantly with OSTA (p<0.05). The agreement between QUS and OSTA was minimal but statistically significant (p<0.05). The performance of OSTA in identifying subjects at risk of osteoporosis according to QUS was poor-to-fair in women (p<0.05), but not statistically significant for men (p>0.05). Changing the cut-off values improved the performance of OSTA in women but not in men. Conclusion The agreement between QUS and OSTA is minimal in categorizing individuals at risk of osteoporosis. Therefore, they cannot be used interchangeably in osteoporosis screening. PMID:29070951

Pharmacology-based toxicity assessment: towards quantitative risk prediction in humans.

PubMed

Sahota, Tarjinder; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2016-05-01

Despite ongoing efforts to better understand the mechanisms underlying safety and toxicity, ~30% of the attrition in drug discovery and development is still due to safety concerns. Changes in current practice regarding the assessment of safety and toxicity are required to reduce late stage attrition and enable effective development of novel medicines. This review focuses on the implications of empirical evidence generation for the evaluation of safety and toxicity during drug development. A shift in paradigm is needed to (i) ensure that pharmacological concepts are incorporated into the evaluation of safety and toxicity; (ii) facilitate the integration of historical evidence and thereby the translation of findings across species as well as between in vitro and in vivo experiments and (iii) promote the use of experimental protocols tailored to address specific safety and toxicity questions. Based on historical examples, we highlight the challenges for the early characterisation of the safety profile of a new molecule and discuss how model-based methodologies can be applied for the design and analysis of experimental protocols. Issues relative to the scientific rationale are categorised and presented as a hierarchical tree describing the decision-making process. Focus is given to four different areas, namely, optimisation, translation, analytical construct and decision criteria. From a methodological perspective, the relevance of quantitative methods for estimation and extrapolation of risk from toxicology and safety pharmacology experimental protocols, such as points of departure and potency, is discussed in light of advancements in population and Bayesian modelling techniques (e.g. non-linear mixed effects modelling). Their use in the evaluation of pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships (PKPD) has enabled great insight into the dose rationale for medicines in humans, both in terms of efficacy and adverse events. Comparable benefits

Quantitative PCR for Genetic Markers of Human Fecal Pollution

EPA Science Inventory

Assessment of health risk and fecal bacteria loads associated with human fecal pollution requires reliable host-specific analytical methods and a rapid quantificationapproach. We report the development of quantitative PCR assays for quantification of two recently described human-...

Comparative measurement and quantitative risk assessment of alcohol consumption through wastewater-based epidemiology: An international study in 20 cities.

PubMed

Ryu, Yeonsuk; Barceló, Damià; Barron, Leon P; Bijlsma, Lubertus; Castiglioni, Sara; de Voogt, Pim; Emke, Erik; Hernández, Félix; Lai, Foon Yin; Lopes, Alvaro; de Alda, Miren López; Mastroianni, Nicola; Munro, Kelly; O'Brien, Jake; Ort, Christoph; Plósz, Benedek G; Reid, Malcolm J; Yargeau, Viviane; Thomas, Kevin V

2016-09-15

Quantitative measurement of drug consumption biomarkers in wastewater can provide objective information on community drug use patterns and trends. This study presents the measurement of alcohol consumption in 20 cities across 11 countries through the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), and reports the application of these data for the risk assessment of alcohol on a population scale using the margin of exposure (MOE) approach. Raw 24-h composite wastewater samples were collected over a one-week period from 20 cities following a common protocol. For each sample a specific and stable alcohol consumption biomarker, ethyl sulfate (EtS) was determined by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The EtS concentrations were used for estimation of per capita alcohol consumption in each city, which was further compared with international reports and applied for risk assessment by MOE. The average per capita consumption in 20 cities ranged between 6.4 and 44.3L/day/1000 inhabitants. An increase in alcohol consumption during the weekend occurred in all cities, however the level of this increase was found to differ. In contrast to conventional data (sales statistics and interviews), WBE revealed geographical differences in the level and pattern of actual alcohol consumption at an inter-city level. All the sampled cities were in the "high risk" category (MOE<10) and the average MOE for the whole population studied was 2.5. These results allowed direct comparisons of alcohol consumption levels, patterns and risks among the cities. This study shows that WBE can provide timely and complementary information on alcohol use and alcohol associated risks in terms of exposure at the community level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

PubMed

Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

2014-03-01

The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI <0.1-4) leukemia case (all in excess of risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.Risk

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

TRIM.Riskis used to integrate the information on exposure received from TRIM.FaTE or TRIM.Expo with that on dose-response or hazard assessment and to provide quantitative descriptions of risk or hazard and some of the attendant uncertainties.

Quantitative PCR for genetic markers of human fecal pollution

EPA Science Inventory

Assessment of health risk and fecal bacteria loads associated with human fecal pollution requires reliable host-specific analytical methods and a rapid quantification approach. We report the development of quantitative PCR assays for enumeration of two recently described hum...

Human fecal source identification with real-time quantitative PCR

EPA Science Inventory

Waterborne diseases represent a significant public health risk worldwide, and can originate from contact with water contaminated with human fecal material. We describe a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) method that targets a Bacteroides dori human-associated genetic marker for...

Quantitative ecological risk assessment of inhabitants exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongpiachan, S.; Hattayanone, M.; Pinyakong, O.; Viyakarn, V.; Chavanich, S. A.; Bo, C.; Khumsup, C.; Kittikoon, I.; Hirunyatrakul, P.

2017-03-01

This study aims to conduct a quantitative ecological risk assessment of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in terrestrial soils of King George Island, Antarctica. Generally, the average PAH concentrations detected in King George Terrestrial Soils (KGS) were appreciably lower than those of World Marine Sediments (WMS) and World Terrestrial Soils (WTS), highlighting the fact that Antarctica is one of the most pristine continents in the world. The total concentrations of twelve probably carcinogenic PAHs (ΣPAHs: a sum of Phe, An, Fluo, Pyr, B[a]A, Chry, B[b]F, B[k]F, B[a]P, Ind, D[a,h]A and B[g,h,i]P) were 3.21 ± 1.62 ng g-1, 5749 ± 4576 ng g-1, and 257,496 ± 291,268 ng g-1, for KGS, WMS and WTS, respectively. In spite of the fact that KGS has extremely low ΣPAHs in comparison with others, the percentage contribution of Phe is exceedingly high with the value of 50%. By assuming that incidental ingestion and dermal contact are two major exposure pathways responsible for the adverse human health effects, the cancer and non-cancer risks from environmental exposure to PAHs were carefully evaluated based on the ;Role of the Baseline Risk Assessment in Superfund Remedy Selection Decisions; memorandum provided by US-EPA. The logarithms of cancer risk levels of PAH contents in KGS varied from -11.1 to -7.18 with an average of -7.96 ± 7.73, which is 1790 times and 80,176 times lower than that of WMS and WTS, respectively. All cancer risk levels of PAH concentrations observed in KGS are significantly (p < 0.001) lower than those of WMS and WTS. Despite the Comandante Ferraz Antarctic Station fire occurred in February 25th, 2012, both the cancer and non-cancer risks of environmental exposure to PAHs were found in ;acceptable level;.

76 FR 28819 - NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0109] NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software..., ``Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection Systems of Nuclear Power Plants... of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Roger D. Magarey; William D. Smith

2012-01-01

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in...

INCORPORATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS INTO QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recently released its Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment. These new guidelines benefit from the significant progress that has been made in understanding the cancer process and also from the more than 20 years experience that EPA...

Health-Risk Behaviour in Deprived Neighbourhoods Compared with Non-Deprived Neighbourhoods: A Systematic Literature Review of Quantitative Observational Studies.

PubMed

Algren, Maria Holst; Bak, Carsten Kronborg; Berg-Beckhoff, Gabriele; Andersen, Pernille Tanggaard

2015-01-01

There has been increasing interest in neighbourhoods' influence on individuals' health-risk behaviours, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet. The aim of this review was to systematically review recent studies on health-risk behaviour among adults who live in deprived neighbourhoods compared with those who live in non-deprived neighbourhoods and to summarise what kind of operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation that were used in the studies. PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews were followed. Systematic searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Sociological Abstracts using relevant search terms, Boolean operators, and truncation, and reference lists were scanned. Quantitative observational studies that examined health-risk behaviour in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods were eligible for inclusion. The inclusion criteria were met by 22 studies. The available literature showed a positive association between smoking and physical inactivity and living in deprived neighbourhoods compared with non-deprived neighbourhoods. In regard to low fruit and vegetable consumption and alcohol consumption, the results were ambiguous, and no clear differences were found. Numerous different operationalisations of neighbourhood deprivation were used in the studies. Substantial evidence indicates that future health interventions in deprived neighbourhoods should focus on smoking and physical inactivity. We suggest that alcohol interventions should be population based rather than based on the specific needs of deprived neighbourhoods. More research is needed on fruit and vegetable consumption. In future studies, the lack of a uniform operationalisation of neighbourhood deprivation must be addressed.

Failure dynamics of the global risk network.

PubMed

Szymanski, Boleslaw K; Lin, Xin; Asztalos, Andrea; Sreenivasan, Sameet

2015-06-18

Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach in which expert assessments of likelihoods and influence of risks underlie a quantitative model of the global risk network dynamics. The modeled risks range from environmental to economic and technological, and include difficult to quantify risks, such as geo-political and social. Using the maximum likelihood estimation, we find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model including network effects significantly outperforms the others, uncovering full value of the expert collected data. We analyze the model dynamics and study its resilience and stability. Our findings include such risk properties as contagion potential, persistence, roles in cascades of failures and the identity of risks most detrimental to system stability. The model provides quantitative means for measuring the adverse effects of risk interdependencies and the materialization of risks in the network.

Correlation Between Quantitative HER-2 Protein Expression and Risk for Brain Metastases in HER-2+ Advanced Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Trastuzumab-Containing Therapy

PubMed Central

Duchnowska, Renata; Biernat, Wojciech; Szostakiewicz, Barbara; Sperinde, Jeff; Piette, Fanny; Haddad, Mojgan; Paquet, Agnes; Lie, Yolanda; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Wysocki, Piotr; Jankowski, Tomasz; Radecka, Barbara; Foszczyńska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Litwiniuk, Maria; Dȩbska, Sylwia; Weidler, Jodi; Huang, Weidong; Buyse, Marc; Bates, Michael

2012-01-01

Background. Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER)-2+ breast cancer are at particularly high risk for brain metastases; however, the biological basis is not fully understood. Using a novel HER-2 assay, we investigated the correlation between quantitative HER-2 expression in primary breast cancers and the time to brain metastasis (TTBM) in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab. Methods. The study group included 142 consecutive patients who were administered trastuzumab-based therapy for HER-2+ metastatic breast cancer. HER-2/neu gene copy number was quantified as the HER-2/centromeric probe for chromosome 17 (CEP17) ratio by central laboratory fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). HER-2 protein was quantified as total HER-2 protein expression (H2T) by the HERmark® assay (Monogram Biosciences, Inc., South San Francisco, CA) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor samples. HER-2 variables were correlated with clinical features and TTBM was measured from the initiation of trastuzumab-containing therapy. Results. A higher H2T level (continuous variable) was correlated with shorter TTBM, whereas HER-2 amplification by FISH and a continuous HER-2/CEP17 ratio were not predictive (p = .013, .28, and .25, respectively). In the subset of patients that was centrally determined by FISH to be HER-2+, an above-the-median H2T level was significantly associated with a shorter TTBM (hazard ratio, [HR], 2.4; p = .005), whereas this was not true for the median HER-2/CEP17 ratio by FISH (p = .4). Correlation between a continuous H2T level and TTBM was confirmed on multivariate analysis (HR, 3.3; p = .024). Conclusions. These data reveal a strong relationship between the quantitative HER-2 protein expression level and the risk for brain relapse in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients. Consequently, quantitative assessment of HER-2 protein expression may inform and facilitate refinements in therapeutic treatment strategies for

Correlation between quantitative HER-2 protein expression and risk for brain metastases in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients receiving trastuzumab-containing therapy.

PubMed

Duchnowska, Renata; Biernat, Wojciech; Szostakiewicz, Barbara; Sperinde, Jeff; Piette, Fanny; Haddad, Mojgan; Paquet, Agnes; Lie, Yolanda; Czartoryska-Arłukowicz, Bogumiła; Wysocki, Piotr; Jankowski, Tomasz; Radecka, Barbara; Foszczynska-Kłoda, Małgorzata; Litwiniuk, Maria; Debska, Sylwia; Weidler, Jodi; Huang, Weidong; Buyse, Marc; Bates, Michael; Jassem, Jacek

2012-01-01

Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER)-2+ breast cancer are at particularly high risk for brain metastases; however, the biological basis is not fully understood. Using a novel HER-2 assay, we investigated the correlation between quantitative HER-2 expression in primary breast cancers and the time to brain metastasis (TTBM) in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients treated with trastuzumab. The study group included 142 consecutive patients who were administered trastuzumab-based therapy for HER-2+ metastatic breast cancer. HER-2/neu gene copy number was quantified as the HER-2/centromeric probe for chromosome 17 (CEP17) ratio by central laboratory fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). HER-2 protein was quantified as total HER-2 protein expression (H2T) by the HERmark® assay (Monogram Biosciences, Inc., South San Francisco, CA) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor samples. HER-2 variables were correlated with clinical features and TTBM was measured from the initiation of trastuzumab-containing therapy. A higher H2T level (continuous variable) was correlated with shorter TTBM, whereas HER-2 amplification by FISH and a continuous HER-2/CEP17 ratio were not predictive (p = .013, .28, and .25, respectively). In the subset of patients that was centrally determined by FISH to be HER-2+, an above-the-median H2T level was significantly associated with a shorter TTBM (hazard ratio, [HR], 2.4; p = .005), whereas this was not true for the median HER-2/CEP17 ratio by FISH (p = .4). Correlation between a continuous H2T level and TTBM was confirmed on multivariate analysis (HR, 3.3; p = .024). These data reveal a strong relationship between the quantitative HER-2 protein expression level and the risk for brain relapse in HER-2+ advanced breast cancer patients. Consequently, quantitative assessment of HER-2 protein expression may inform and facilitate refinements in therapeutic treatment strategies for selected subpopulations of patients in this

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Pulmonary nodule characterization, including computer analysis and quantitative features.

PubMed

Bartholmai, Brian J; Koo, Chi Wan; Johnson, Geoffrey B; White, Darin B; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Moynagh, Michael R; Lindell, Rebecca M; Hartman, Thomas E

2015-03-01

Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.

Validation of Greyscale-Based Quantitative Ultrasound in Manual Wheelchair Users

PubMed Central

Collinger, Jennifer L.; Fullerton, Bradley; Impink, Bradley G.; Koontz, Alicia M.; Boninger, Michael L.

2010-01-01

Objective The primary aim of this study is to establish the validity of greyscale-based quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures of the biceps and supraspinatus tendons. Design Nine QUS measures of the biceps and supraspinatus tendons were computed from ultrasound images collected from sixty-seven manual wheelchair users. Shoulder pathology was measured using questionnaires, physical examination maneuvers, and a clinical ultrasound grading scale. Results Increased age, duration of wheelchair use, and body mass correlated with a darker, more homogenous tendon appearance. Subjects with pain during physical examination tests for biceps tenderness and acromioclavicular joint tenderness exhibited significantly different supraspinatus QUS values. Even when controlling for tendon depth, QUS measures of the biceps tendon differed significantly between subjects with healthy tendons, mild tendinosis, and severe tendinosis. Clinical grading of supraspinatus tendon health was correlated with QUS measures of the supraspinatus tendon. Conclusions Quantitative ultrasound is valid method to quantify tendinopathy and may allow for early detection of tendinosis. Manual wheelchair users are at a high risk for developing shoulder tendon pathology and may benefit from quantitative ultrasound-based research that focuses on identifying interventions designed to reduce this risk. PMID:20407304

Reliability and safety, and the risk of construction damage in mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypczak, Izabela; Kogut, Janusz P.; Kokoszka, Wanda; Oleniacz, Grzegorz

2018-04-01

This article concerns the reliability and safety of building structures in mining areas, with a particular emphasis on the quantitative risk analysis of buildings. The issues of threat assessment and risk estimation, in the design of facilities in mining exploitation areas, are presented here, indicating the difficulties and ambiguities associated with their quantification and quantitative analysis. This article presents the concept of quantitative risk assessment of the impact of mining exploitation, in accordance with ISO 13824 [1]. The risk analysis is illustrated through an example of a construction located within an area affected by mining exploitation.

Dose response models and a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for the Mycobacterium avium complex that account for recent developments in molecular biology, taxonomy, and epidemiology.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

2017-02-01

Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a group of environmentally-transmitted pathogens of great public health importance. This group is known to be harbored, amplified, and selected for more human-virulent characteristics by amoeba species in aquatic biofilms. However, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has not been performed due to the lack of dose response models resulting from significant heterogeneity within even a single species or subspecies of MAC, as well as the range of human susceptibilities to mycobacterial disease. The primary human-relevant species and subspecies responsible for the majority of the human disease burden and present in drinking water, biofilms, and soil are M. avium subsp. hominissuis, M. intracellulare, and M. chimaera. A critical review of the published literature identified important health endpoints, exposure routes, and susceptible populations for MAC risk assessment. In addition, data sets for quantitative dose-response functions were extracted from published in vivo animal dosing experiments. As a result, seven new exponential dose response models for human-relevant species of MAC with endpoints of lung lesions, death, disseminated infection, liver infection, and lymph node lesions are proposed. Although current physical and biochemical tests used in clinical settings do not differentiate between M. avium and M. intracellulare, differentiating between environmental species and subspecies of the MAC can aid in the assessment of health risks and control of MAC sources. A framework is proposed for incorporating the proposed dose response models into susceptible population- and exposure route-specific QMRA models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-dose CT for quantitative analysis in acute respiratory distress syndrome

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction The clinical use of serial quantitative computed tomography (CT) to characterize lung disease and guide the optimization of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is limited by the risk of cumulative radiation exposure and by the difficulties and risks related to transferring patients to the CT room. We evaluated the effects of tube current-time product (mAs) variations on quantitative results in healthy lungs and in experimental ARDS in order to support the use of low-dose CT for quantitative analysis. Methods In 14 sheep chest CT was performed at baseline and after the induction of ARDS via intravenous oleic acid injection. For each CT session, two consecutive scans were obtained applying two different mAs: 60 mAs was paired with 140, 15 or 7.5 mAs. All other CT parameters were kept unaltered (tube voltage 120 kVp, collimation 32 × 0.5 mm, pitch 0.85, matrix 512 × 512, pixel size 0.625 × 0.625 mm). Quantitative results obtained at different mAs were compared via Bland-Altman analysis. Results Good agreement was observed between 60 mAs and 140 mAs and between 60 mAs and 15 mAs (all biases less than 1%). A further reduction of mAs to 7.5 mAs caused an increase in the bias of poorly aerated and nonaerated tissue (-2.9% and 2.4%, respectively) and determined a significant widening of the limits of agreement for the same compartments (-10.5% to 4.8% for poorly aerated tissue and -5.9% to 10.8% for nonaerated tissue). Estimated mean effective dose at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 17.8, 7.4, 2.0 and 0.9 mSv, respectively. Image noise of scans performed at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 10, 16, 38 and 74 Hounsfield units, respectively. Conclusions A reduction of effective dose up to 70% has been achieved with minimal effects on lung quantitative results. Low-dose computed tomography provides accurate quantitative results and could be used to characterize lung compartment distribution and

Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

2003-08-01

The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

Quantitative relations between risk, return and firm size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Petersen, A. M.; Stanley, H. E.

2009-03-01

We analyze —for a large set of stocks comprising four financial indices— the annual logarithmic growth rate R and the firm size, quantified by the market capitalization MC. For the Nasdaq Composite and the New York Stock Exchange Composite we find that the probability density functions of growth rates are Laplace ones in the broad central region, where the standard deviation σ(R), as a measure of risk, decreases with the MC as a power law σ(R)~(MC)- β. For both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, we find that the average growth rate langRrang decreases faster than σ(R) with MC, implying that the return-to-risk ratio langRrang/σ(R) also decreases with MC. For the S&P 500, langRrang and langRrang/σ(R) also follow power laws. For a 20-year time horizon, for the Nasdaq Composite we find that σ(R) vs. MC exhibits a functional form called a volatility smile, while for the NYSE Composite, we find power law stability between σ(r) and MC.

Quantitative risk assessment of WSSV transmission through partial harvesting and transport practices for shrimp aquaculture in Mexico.

PubMed

Sanchez-Zazueta, Edgar; Martínez-Cordero, Francisco Javier; Chávez-Sánchez, María Cristina; Montoya-Rodríguez, Leobardo

2017-10-01

This quantitative risk assessment provided an analytical framework to estimate white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risks in the following different scenarios: (1) partial harvest from rearing ponds and (2) post-harvest transportation, assuming that the introduction of contaminated water with viral particles into shrimp culture ponds is the main source of viral transmission risk. Probabilities of infecting shrimp with waterborne WSSV were obtained by approaching the functional form that best fits (likelihood ratio test) published data on the dose-response relationship for WSSV orally inoculated through water into shrimp. Expert opinion defined the ranges for the following uncertain factors: (1) the concentrations of WSSV in the water spilled from the vehicles transporting the infected shrimp, (2) the total volume of these spills, and (3) the dilution into culture ponds. Multiple scenarios were analysed, starting with a viral load (VL) of 1×10 2 mL -1 in the contaminated water spilled that reached the culture pond, whose probability of infection of an individual shrimp (P i ) was negligible (1.7×10 -7 ). Increasing the VL to 1×10 4.5 mL -1 and 1×10 7 mL -1 yielded results into very low (P i =5.3×10 -5 ) and high risk (P i =1.6×10 -2 ) categories, respectively. Furthermore, different pond stocking density (SD) scenarios (20 and 30 post-larvae [PL]/m 2 ) were evaluated, and the probability of infection of at least one out of the total number of shrimp exposed (P N ) was derived; for the scenarios with a low VL (1×10 2 mL -1 ), the P N remained at a negligible risk level (P N , 2.4×10 -7 to 1.8×10 -6 ). For most of the scenarios with the moderate VL (1×10 4.5 mL -1 ), the P N scaled up to a low risk category (P N , 1.1×10 -4 to 5.6×10 -4 ), whereas for the scenarios with a high VL (1×10 7 mL -1 ), the risk levels were high (P N , 2.3×10 -2 to 3.5×10 -2 ) or very high (P N , 1.1×10 -1 to 1.6×10 -1 ) depending on the volume of contaminated water

A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

Mathematically , Jorion’s concept of VaR looks like this: ( > ) ≤ 1 − (2) where, = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=ÅÜ...presents three models for calculating VaR. The local-valuation method determines the value of a portfolio once and uses mathematical derivatives...management. In the insurance industry, actuarial data is applied to model risk and risk capital reserves are “held” to cover the expected values for

Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of higher tier studies on the toxicity and risks of neonicotinoids in honeybees. 4. Thiamethoxam.

PubMed

Stephenson, Gladys L; Solomon, Keith R

2017-01-01

A quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE) methodology was used to assess several higher-tier studies on the effects of thiamethoxam (TMX) on honeybees. Assessment endpoints were population size and viability of commercially managed honeybee colonies and quantity of hive products. A higher-tier field toxicology study indicated a no-observed-adverse effect concentration (NOAEC) of 29.5 µg TMX/kg syrup, equivalent to an oral no-observed-adverse-effect-dose (NOAED) of 8.6 ng/bee/day for all responses measured. For exposures via deposition of dust, a conservative no-observed-adverse-effect-rate at the level of the colony was 0.1 g TMX/ha. There was minimal risk to honeybees from exposure to TMX via nectar and pollen from its use as a seed-treatment. For exposures via dust and dust/seed applications, there were no concentrations above the risk values for TMX in nectar and pollen. Although some risks were identified for potential exposures via guttation fluid, this route of exposure is incomplete; no apparent adverse effects were observed in field studies. For exposures via dust/seed and dust/foliar applications, few adverse effects were observed. Considering all lines of evidence, the quality of the studies included in this analysis was variable. However, the results of the studies were consistent and point to the same conclusion. The overall weight of evidence based on many studies indicates that TMX has no adverse effects on viability or survival of the colony. Thus, the overall conclusion is that the treatment of seeds with thiamethoxam, as currently used in good agricultural practices, does not present a significant risk to honeybees at the level of the colony.

Potential application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment techniques to an aseptic-UHT process in the food industry.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2013-04-01

Aseptic ultra-high-temperature (UHT)-type processed food products (e.g., milk or soup) are ready to eat products which are consumed extensively globally due to a combination of their comparative high quality and long shelf life, with no cold chain or other preservation requirements. Due to the inherent microbial vulnerability of aseptic-UHT product formulations, the safety and stability-related performance objectives (POs) required at the end of the manufacturing process are the most demanding found in the food industry. The key determinants to achieving sterility, and which also differentiates aseptic-UHT from in-pack sterilised products, are the challenges associated with the processes of aseptic filling and sealing. This is a complex process that has traditionally been run using deterministic or empirical process settings. Quantifying the risk of microbial contamination and recontamination along the aseptic-UHT process, using the scientifically based process quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), offers the possibility to improve on the currently tolerable sterility failure rate (i.e., 1 defect per 10,000 units). In addition, benefits of applying QMRA are (i) to implement process settings in a transparent and scientific manner; (ii) to develop a uniform common structure whatever the production line, leading to a harmonisation of these process settings, and; (iii) to bring elements of a cost-benefit analysis of the management measures. The objective of this article is to explore how QMRA techniques and risk management metrics may be applied to aseptic-UHT-type processed food products. In particular, the aseptic-UHT process should benefit from a number of novel mathematical and statistical concepts that have been developed in the field of QMRA. Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian inference and sensitivity analysis, should help in assessing the compliance with safety and stability-related POs set at the end of the manufacturing

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars, based on modeling supply chain logistics.

PubMed

Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E

2010-10-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.

Quantitative genetics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The majority of economically important traits targeted for cotton improvement are quantitatively inherited. In this chapter, the current state of cotton quantitative genetics is described and separated into four components. These components include: 1) traditional quantitative inheritance analysis, ...

75 FR 25239 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-07

... human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...

Combining quantitative and qualitative breast density measures to assess breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Kerlikowske, Karla; Ma, Lin; Scott, Christopher G; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir P; Jensen, Matthew R; Sprague, Brian L; Henderson, Louise M; Pankratz, V Shane; Cummings, Steven R; Miglioretti, Diana L; Vachon, Celine M; Shepherd, John A

2017-08-22

Accurately identifying women with dense breasts (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] heterogeneously or extremely dense) who are at high breast cancer risk will facilitate discussions of supplemental imaging and primary prevention. We examined the independent contribution of dense breast volume and BI-RADS breast density to predict invasive breast cancer and whether dense breast volume combined with Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model factors (age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and BI-RADS breast density) improves identifying women with dense breasts at high breast cancer risk. We conducted a case-control study of 1720 women with invasive cancer and 3686 control subjects. We calculated ORs and 95% CIs for the effect of BI-RADS breast density and Volpara™ automated dense breast volume on invasive cancer risk, adjusting for other BCSC risk model factors plus body mass index (BMI), and we compared C-statistics between models. We calculated BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, incorporating the adjusted ORs associated with dense breast volume. Compared with women with BI-RADS scattered fibroglandular densities and second-quartile dense breast volume, women with BI-RADS extremely dense breasts and third- or fourth-quartile dense breast volume (75% of women with extremely dense breasts) had high breast cancer risk (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.84-4.47, and OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.87-3.52, respectively), whereas women with extremely dense breasts and first- or second-quartile dense breast volume were not at significantly increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.75-3.09, and OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.82-2.73, respectively). Adding continuous dense breast volume to a model with BCSC risk model factors and BMI increased discriminatory accuracy compared with a model with only BCSC risk model factors (C-statistic 0.639, 95% CI 0.623-0.654, vs. C-statistic 0.614, 95% CI 0.598-0.630, respectively; P < 0.001). Women

Quantitative analysis of [99mTc]C2A-GST distribution in the area at risk after myocardial ischemia and reperfusion using a compartmental model.

PubMed

Audi, Said; Poellmann, Michael; Zhu, Xiaoguang; Li, Zhixin; Zhao, Ming

2007-11-01

It was recently demonstrated that the radiolabeled C2A domain of synaptotagmin I accumulates avidly in the area at risk after ischemia and reperfusion. The objective was to quantitatively characterize the dynamic uptake of radiolabeled C2A in normal and ischemically injured myocardia using a compartmental model. To induce acute myocardial infarction, the left descending coronary artery was ligated for 18 min, followed by reperfusion. [99mTc]C2A-GST or its inactivated form, [99mTc]C2A-GST-NHS, was injected intravenously at 2 h after reperfusion. A group of four rats was sacrificed at 10, 30, 60 and 180 after injection. Uptake of [99mTc]C2A-GST and [99mTc]C2A-GST-NHS in the area at risk and in the normal myocardium were determined by gamma counting. A compartmental model was developed to quantitatively interpret myocardial uptake kinetic data. The model consists of two physical spaces (vascular space and tissue space), with plasma activity as input. The model allows for [99mTc]C2A-GST and [99mTc]C2A-GST-NHS diffusion between vascular and tissue spaces, as well as for [99mTc]C2A-GST sequestration in vascular and tissue spaces via specific binding. [99mTc]C2A-GST uptake in the area at risk was significantly higher than that for [99mTc]C2A-GST-NHS at all time points. The compartmental model separated [99mTc]C2A-GST uptake in the area at risk due to passive retention from that due to specific binding. The maximum amount of [99mTc]C2A-GST that could be sequestered in the area at risk due to specific binding was estimated at a total of 0.048 nmol/g tissue. The rate of [99mTc]C2A-GST sequestration within the tissue space of the area at risk was 0.012 ml/min. Modeling results also revealed that the diffusion rate of radiotracer between vascular and tissue spaces is the limiting factor of [99mTc]C2A-GST sequestration within the tissue space of the area at risk. [99mTc]C2A-GST is sequestered in the ischemically injured myocardium in a well-defined dynamic profile. Model

The role of quantitative safety evaluation in regulatory decision making of drugs.

PubMed

Chakravarty, Aloka G; Izem, Rima; Keeton, Stephine; Kim, Clara Y; Levenson, Mark S; Soukup, Mat

2016-01-01

Evaluation of safety is a critical component of drug review at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Statisticians are playing an increasingly visible role in quantitative safety evaluation and regulatory decision-making. This article reviews the history and the recent events relating to quantitative drug safety evaluation at the FDA. The article then focuses on five active areas of quantitative drug safety evaluation and the role Division of Biometrics VII (DBVII) plays in these areas, namely meta-analysis for safety evaluation, large safety outcome trials, post-marketing requirements (PMRs), the Sentinel Initiative, and the evaluation of risk from extended/long-acting opioids. This article will focus chiefly on developments related to quantitative drug safety evaluation and not on the many additional developments in drug safety in general.

Quantitative Method for Analyzing the Allocation of Risks in Transportation Construction

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-04-01

The report presents a conceptual model of risk that was developed to analyze the impact on owner's cost of alternate allocations of risk among owner and contractor in mass transit construction. A model and analysis procedure are developed, based on d...

Quantitative systems toxicology

PubMed Central

Bloomingdale, Peter; Housand, Conrad; Apgar, Joshua F.; Millard, Bjorn L.; Mager, Donald E.; Burke, John M.; Shah, Dhaval K.

2017-01-01

The overarching goal of modern drug development is to optimize therapeutic benefits while minimizing adverse effects. However, inadequate efficacy and safety concerns remain to be the major causes of drug attrition in clinical development. For the past 80 years, toxicity testing has consisted of evaluating the adverse effects of drugs in animals to predict human health risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recognized the need to develop innovative toxicity testing strategies and asked the National Research Council to develop a long-range vision and strategy for toxicity testing in the 21st century. The vision aims to reduce the use of animals and drug development costs through the integration of computational modeling and in vitro experimental methods that evaluates the perturbation of toxicity-related pathways. Towards this vision, collaborative quantitative systems pharmacology and toxicology modeling endeavors (QSP/QST) have been initiated amongst numerous organizations worldwide. In this article, we discuss how quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), network-based, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling approaches can be integrated into the framework of QST models. Additionally, we review the application of QST models to predict cardiotoxicity and hepatotoxicity of drugs throughout their development. Cell and organ specific QST models are likely to become an essential component of modern toxicity testing, and provides a solid foundation towards determining individualized therapeutic windows to improve patient safety. PMID:29308440

Randomized trial of computerized quantitative pretest probability in low-risk chest pain patients: effect on safety and resource use.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Zeitouni, Raghid A; Hernandez-Nino, Jackeline; Jones, Alan E

2009-06-01

We hypothesize that the presentation of a quantitative pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome would safely reduce unnecessary resource use in low-risk emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. Randomized controlled trial of adult patients with chest pain paired with their clinicians. Patients had neither obvious evidence of acute coronary syndrome nor obvious other reason for admission. Clinicans provided their unstructured point estimate for pretest probability before randomization. Clinicans and patients in the intervention group received a printout of pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome result displayed numerically and graphically. Controls received no printout. Patients were followed for 45 days for predefined criteria of acute coronary syndrome and efficacy endpoints. Endpoints were compared between groups, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for differences. Four hundred were enrolled, and 31 were excluded for cocaine use or elopement from care. The mean pretest probability estimates of acute coronary syndrome were 4 (SD 5%) from clinicians and 4 (SD 6%) from the computer. Safety and efficacy endpoints for controls (n=185) versus intervention patients (n=184) were as follows: (1) delayed or missed diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome: 1 of 185 versus 0 of 184 (95% CI for difference -2.8% to 15.0%); (2) hospital admission with no significant cardiovascular diagnosis, 11% versus 5% (-0.2% to 11%); (3) thoracic imaging imparting greater than 5 mSv radiation with a negative result, 20% versus 9% (95% CI for difference = 3.8% to 18.0%); (4) median length of stay, 11.4 hours versus 9.2 hours (95% CI for difference = -2.9 to 7.6 hours); (5) reported feeling "very satisfied" with clinician explanation of problem on follow-up survey, 38% versus 49% (95% CI for difference = 0.9% to 21.0%); (6) readmitted within 7 days, 11% versus 4% (95% CI for difference = 2.5% to 13.2%). Presentation of a quantitative estimate of the pretest probability of

Validation study of a quantitative multigene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer.

PubMed

Gray, Richard G; Quirke, Philip; Handley, Kelly; Lopatin, Margarita; Magill, Laura; Baehner, Frederick L; Beaumont, Claire; Clark-Langone, Kim M; Yoshizawa, Carl N; Lee, Mark; Watson, Drew; Shak, Steven; Kerr, David J

2011-12-10

We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer. We sought validation by using RNA extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy. Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio [HR] per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95). The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.

A Quantitative ADME-base Tool for Exploring Human ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure to a wide range of chemicals through our daily habits and routines is ubiquitous and largely unavoidable within modern society. The potential for human exposure, however, has not been quantified for the vast majority of chemicals with wide commercial use. Creative advances in exposure science are needed to support efficient and effective evaluation and management of chemical risks, particularly for chemicals in consumer products. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development is developing, or collaborating in the development of, scientifically-defensible methods for making quantitative or semi-quantitative exposure predictions. The Exposure Prioritization (Ex Priori) model is a simplified, quantitative visual dashboard that provides a rank-ordered internalized dose metric to simultaneously explore exposures across chemical space (not chemical by chemical). Diverse data streams are integrated within the interface such that different exposure scenarios for “individual,” “population,” or “professional” time-use profiles can be interchanged to tailor exposure and quantitatively explore multi-chemical signatures of exposure, internalized dose (uptake), body burden, and elimination. Ex Priori has been designed as an adaptable systems framework that synthesizes knowledge from various domains and is amenable to new knowledge/information. As such, it algorithmically captures the totality of exposure across pathways. It

Design features of graphs in health risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ancker, Jessica S; Senathirajah, Yalini; Kukafka, Rita; Starren, Justin B

2006-01-01

This review describes recent experimental and focus group research on graphics as a method of communication about quantitative health risks. Some of the studies discussed in this review assessed effect of graphs on quantitative reasoning, others assessed effects on behavior or behavioral intentions, and still others assessed viewers' likes and dislikes. Graphical features that improve the accuracy of quantitative reasoning appear to differ from the features most likely to alter behavior or intentions. For example, graphs that make part-to-whole relationships available visually may help people attend to the relationship between the numerator (the number of people affected by a hazard) and the denominator (the entire population at risk), whereas graphs that show only the numerator appear to inflate the perceived risk and may induce risk-averse behavior. Viewers often preferred design features such as visual simplicity and familiarity that were not associated with accurate quantitative judgments. Communicators should not assume that all graphics are more intuitive than text; many of the studies found that patients' interpretations of the graphics were dependent upon expertise or instruction. Potentially useful directions for continuing research include interactions with educational level and numeracy and successful ways to communicate uncertainty about risk.

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchbinder, Ben

1993-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

2013-08-01

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by

Quantitative AOP-based predictions for two aromatase inhibitors evaluating the influence of bioaccumulation on prediction accuracy

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to support the use of mechanistic toxicology data as a basis for risk assessment. For certain risk contexts this includes defining, quantitative linkages between the molecular initiating event (MIE) and subsequent key events...

Quantitative genetic tools for insecticide resistance risk assessment: estimating the heritability of resistance

Treesearch

Michael J. Firko; Jane Leslie Hayes

1990-01-01

Quantitative genetic studies of resistance can provide estimates of genetic parameters not available with other types of genetic analyses. Three methods are discussed for estimating the amount of additive genetic variation in resistance to individual insecticides and subsequent estimation of heritability (h2) of resistance. Sibling analysis and...

Bone strength measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography and the risk of nonvertebral fractures: the osteoporotic fractures in men (MrOS) study.

PubMed

Sheu, Yahtyng; Zmuda, Joseph M; Boudreau, Robert M; Petit, Moira A; Ensrud, Kristine E; Bauer, Douglas C; Gordon, Christopher L; Orwoll, Eric S; Cauley, Jane A

2011-01-01

Many fractures occur in individuals without osteoporosis defined by areal bone mineral density (aBMD). Inclusion of other aspects of skeletal strength may be useful in identifying at-risk subjects. We used surrogate measures of bone strength at the radius and tibia measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) to evaluate their relationships with nonvertebral fracture risk. Femoral neck (FN) aBMD, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), also was included. The study population consisted of 1143 white men aged 69+ years with pQCT measures at the radius and tibia from the Minneapolis and Pittsburgh centers of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. Principal-components analysis and Cox proportional-hazards modeling were used to identify 21 of 58 pQCT variables with a major contribution to nonvertebral incident fractures. After a mean 2.9 years of follow-up, 39 fractures occurred. Men without incident fractures had significantly greater bone mineral content, cross-sectional area, and indices of bone strength than those with fractures by pQCT. Every SD decrease in the 18 of 21 pQCT parameters was significantly associated with increased fracture risk (hazard ration ranged from 1.4 to 2.2) independent of age, study site, body mass index (BMI), and FN aBMD. Using area under the receiver operation characteristics curve (AUC), the combination of FN aBMD and three radius strength parameters individually increased fracture prediction over FN aBMD alone (AUC increased from 0.73 to 0.80). Peripheral bone strength measures are associated with fracture risk and may improve our ability to identify older men at high risk of fracture. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Prognostic Value of Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Sammut, Eva C; Villa, Adriana D M; Di Giovine, Gabriella; Dancy, Luke; Bosio, Filippo; Gibbs, Thomas; Jeyabraba, Swarna; Schwenke, Susanne; Williams, Steven E; Marber, Michael; Alfakih, Khaled; Ismail, Tevfik F; Razavi, Reza; Chiribiri, Amedeo

2018-05-01

established risk factors, potentially representing an important step forward in the translation of quantitative CMR perfusion analysis to the clinical setting. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

2015-08-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental determinants of violence risk in psychotic disorders: a multivariate quantitative genetic study of 1.8 million Swedish twins and siblings

PubMed Central

Sariaslan, A; Larsson, H; Fazel, S

2016-01-01

Patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders (for example, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) have elevated risks of committing violent acts, particularly if they are comorbid with substance misuse. Despite recent insights from quantitative and molecular genetic studies demonstrating considerable pleiotropy in the genetic architecture of these phenotypes, there is currently a lack of large-scale studies that have specifically examined the aetiological links between psychotic disorders and violence. Using a sample of all Swedish individuals born between 1958 and 1989 (n=3 332 101), we identified a total of 923 259 twin-sibling pairs. Patients were identified using the National Patient Register using validated algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 8–10. Univariate quantitative genetic models revealed that all phenotypes (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, substance misuse, and violent crime) were highly heritable (h2=53–71%). Multivariate models further revealed that schizophrenia was a stronger predictor of violence (r=0.32; 95% confidence interval: 0.30–0.33) than bipolar disorder (r=0.23; 0.21–0.25), and large proportions (51–67%) of these phenotypic correlations were explained by genetic factors shared between each disorder, substance misuse, and violence. Importantly, we found that genetic influences that were unrelated to substance misuse explained approximately a fifth (21% 20–22%) of the correlation with violent criminality in bipolar disorder but none of the same correlation in schizophrenia (Pbipolar disorder<0.001; Pschizophrenia=0.55). These findings highlight the problems of not disentangling common and unique sources of covariance across genetically similar phenotypes as the latter sources may include aetiologically important clues. Clinically, these findings underline the importance of assessing risk of different phenotypes together and integrating interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, and

Genetic and environmental determinants of violence risk in psychotic disorders: a multivariate quantitative genetic study of 1.8 million Swedish twins and siblings.

PubMed

Sariaslan, A; Larsson, H; Fazel, S

2016-09-01

Patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders (for example, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) have elevated risks of committing violent acts, particularly if they are comorbid with substance misuse. Despite recent insights from quantitative and molecular genetic studies demonstrating considerable pleiotropy in the genetic architecture of these phenotypes, there is currently a lack of large-scale studies that have specifically examined the aetiological links between psychotic disorders and violence. Using a sample of all Swedish individuals born between 1958 and 1989 (n=3 332 101), we identified a total of 923 259 twin-sibling pairs. Patients were identified using the National Patient Register using validated algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 8-10. Univariate quantitative genetic models revealed that all phenotypes (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, substance misuse, and violent crime) were highly heritable (h(2)=53-71%). Multivariate models further revealed that schizophrenia was a stronger predictor of violence (r=0.32; 95% confidence interval: 0.30-0.33) than bipolar disorder (r=0.23; 0.21-0.25), and large proportions (51-67%) of these phenotypic correlations were explained by genetic factors shared between each disorder, substance misuse, and violence. Importantly, we found that genetic influences that were unrelated to substance misuse explained approximately a fifth (21%; 20-22%) of the correlation with violent criminality in bipolar disorder but none of the same correlation in schizophrenia (Pbipolar disorder<0.001; Pschizophrenia=0.55). These findings highlight the problems of not disentangling common and unique sources of covariance across genetically similar phenotypes as the latter sources may include aetiologically important clues. Clinically, these findings underline the importance of assessing risk of different phenotypes together and integrating interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, and violence.

Quantitative structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the goat milk.

PubMed

Muhammad, Faqir; Awais, Mian Muhammad; Akhtar, Masood; Anwar, Muhammad Irfan

2013-01-04

The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SEM levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34±0.007, 0.063±0.002, 0.034±0.002 and 0.092±0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW), melting point (MP), and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w) in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985) for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality.

Quantitative structure activity relationship and risk analysis of some pesticides in the goat milk

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The detection and quantification of different pesticides in the goat milk samples collected from different localities of Faisalabad, Pakistan was performed by HPLC using solid phase microextraction. The analysis showed that about 50% milk samples were contaminated with pesticides. The mean±SEM levels (ppm) of cyhalothrin, endosulfan, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin were 0.34±0.007, 0.063±0.002, 0.034±0.002 and 0.092±0.002, respectively; whereas, methyl parathion was not detected in any of the analyzed samples. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) models were suggested to predict the residues of unknown pesticides in the goat milk using their known physicochemical characteristics including molecular weight (MW), melting point (MP), and log octanol to water partition coefficient (Ko/w) in relation to the characteristics such as pH, % fat, specific gravity and refractive index of goat milk. The analysis revealed good correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.985) for goat QSAR model. The coefficients for Ko/w and refractive index for the studied pesticides were higher in goat milk. This suggests that these are better determinants for pesticide residue prediction in the milk of these animals. Based upon the determined pesticide residues and their provisional tolerable daily intakes, risk analysis was also conducted which showed that daily intake levels of pesticide residues including cyhalothrin, chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin in present study are 2.68, 5.19 and 2.71 times higher, respectively in the goat milk. This intake of pesticide contaminated milk might pose health hazards to humans in this locality. PMID:23369514

Providing Quantitative Information and a Nudge to Undergo Stool Testing in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Schwartz, Peter H; Perkins, Susan M; Schmidt, Karen K; Muriello, Paul F; Althouse, Sandra; Rawl, Susan M

2017-08-01

Guidelines recommend that patient decision aids should provide quantitative information about probabilities of potential outcomes, but the impact of this information is unknown. Behavioral economics suggests that patients confused by quantitative information could benefit from a "nudge" towards one option. We conducted a pilot randomized trial to estimate the effect sizes of presenting quantitative information and a nudge. Primary care patients (n = 213) eligible for colorectal cancer screening viewed basic screening information and were randomized to view (a) quantitative information (quantitative module), (b) a nudge towards stool testing with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (nudge module), (c) neither a nor b, or (d) both a and b. Outcome measures were perceived colorectal cancer risk, screening intent, preferred test, and decision conflict, measured before and after viewing the decision aid, and screening behavior at 6 months. Patients viewing the quantitative module were more likely to be screened than those who did not ( P = 0.012). Patients viewing the nudge module had a greater increase in perceived colorectal cancer risk than those who did not ( P = 0.041). Those viewing the quantitative module had a smaller increase in perceived risk than those who did not ( P = 0.046), and the effect was moderated by numeracy. Among patients with high numeracy who did not view the nudge module, those who viewed the quantitative module had a greater increase in intent to undergo FIT ( P = 0.028) than did those who did not. The limitations of this study were the limited sample size and single healthcare system. Adding quantitative information to a decision aid increased uptake of colorectal cancer screening, while adding a nudge to undergo FIT did not increase uptake. Further research on quantitative information in decision aids is warranted.

The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

PubMed

Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

2018-03-11

To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative weight of evidence assessment of risk to honeybee colonies from use of imidacloprid, clothianidin, and thiamethoxam as seed treatments: a postscript.

PubMed

Solomon, Keith R; Stephenson, Gladys L

2017-01-01

This paper is a postscript to the four companion papers in this issue of the Journal (Solomon and Stephenson 2017a , 2017b ; Stephenson and Solomon 2017a , 2017b ). The first paper in the series described the conceptual model and the methods of the QWoE process. The other three papers described the application of the QWoE process to studies on imidacloprid (IMI), clothianidin (CTD), and thiamethoxam (TMX). This postscript was written to summarize the utility of the methods used in the quantitative weight of evidence (QWoE), the overall relevance of the results, and the environmental implications of the findings. Hopefully, this will be helpful to others who wish to conduct QWoEs and use these methods in assessment of risks.

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Quantitative Prediction of Systemic Toxicity Points of Departure (OpenTox USA 2017)

EPA Science Inventory

Human health risk assessment associated with environmental chemical exposure is limited by the tens of thousands of chemicals little or no experimental in vivo toxicity data. Data gap filling techniques, such as quantitative models based on chemical structure information, are c...

The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Merel M C; Kamphuis, Esme I; Hoesli, Irene M; Martinez de Tejada, Begoña; Loccufier, Anne R; Kühnert, Maritta; Helmer, Hanns; Franz, Marie; Porath, Martina M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Jacquemyn, Yves; Schulzke, Sven M; Vetter, Grit; Hoste, Griet; Vis, Jolande Y; Kok, Marjolein; Mol, Ben W J; van Baaren, Gert-Jan

2016-12-01

The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Hollaender, R; Hartl, F; Krieg, M-A; Tyndall, A; Geuckel, C; Buitrago-Tellez, C; Manghani, M; Kraenzlin, M; Theiler, R; Hans, D

2009-03-01

Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides

PubMed Central

Kniss, Andrew R.; Coburn, Carl W.

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman’s rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact. PMID:26121252

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Coburn, Carl W

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman's rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact.

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-10

... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...), Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460; telephone... human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects...

Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

Risk manager formula for success: Influencing decision making.

PubMed

Midgley, Mike

2017-10-01

Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Risk factors for child abuse: quantitative correlational design.

PubMed

Ben-Natan, Merav; Sharon, Ira; Barbashov, Polina; Minasyan, Yulia; Hanukayev, Isabella; Kajdan, David; Klein-Kremer, Adi

2014-01-01

The aim of this research study is to identify risk factors typical of different types of suspected child abuse reported at a hospital. The study was based on 114 cases of children for whom some type of abuse was reported. Physical abuse was the most frequently reported of all types of suspected child abuse. Most victims of sexual abuse were female and at least half the cases of neglect and physical abuse were attributed to parents. Most cases were identified in the emergency room by nurses. Children older than 10 were more susceptible to physical abuse and neglect. © 2014.

The effect of changing the built environment on physical activity: a quantitative review of the risk of bias in natural experiments.

PubMed

Benton, Jack S; Anderson, Jamie; Hunter, Ruth F; French, David P

2016-10-07

Evidence regarding the association of the built environment with physical activity is influencing policy recommendations that advocate changing the built environment to increase population-level physical activity. However, to date there has been no rigorous appraisal of the quality of the evidence on the effects of changing the built environment. The aim of this review was to conduct a thorough quantitative appraisal of the risk of bias present in those natural experiments with the strongest experimental designs for assessing the causal effects of the built environment on physical activity. Eligible studies had to evaluate the effects of changing the built environment on physical activity, include at least one measurement before and one measurement of physical activity after changes in the environment, and have at least one intervention site and non-intervention comparison site. Given the large number of systematic reviews in this area, studies were identified from three exemplar systematic reviews; these were published in the past five years and were selected to provide a range of different built environment interventions. The risk of bias in these studies was analysed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ACROBAT-NRSI). Twelve eligible natural experiments were identified. Risk of bias assessments were conducted for each physical activity outcome from all studies, resulting in a total of fifteen outcomes being analysed. Intervention sites included parks, urban greenways/trails, bicycle lanes, paths, vacant lots, and a senior citizen's centre. All outcomes had an overall critical (n = 12) or serious (n = 3) risk of bias. Domains with the highest risk of bias were confounding (due to inadequate control sites and poor control of confounding variables), measurement of outcomes, and selection of the reported result. The present review focused on the strongest natural experiments conducted to date. Given this, the

Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by young children in French households.

PubMed

Delignette-Muller, M L; Cornu, M

2008-11-30

A quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in frozen ground beef patties consumed by children under 10 years of age in French households was conducted by a national study group describing an outbreak which occurred in France in 2005. Our exposure assessment model incorporates results from French surveys on consumption frequency of ground beef patties, serving size and consumption preference, microbial destruction experiments and microbial counts on patties sampled from the industrial batch which were responsible for the outbreak. Two different exposure models were proposed, respectively for children under the age of 5 and for children between 5 and 10 years. For each of these two age groups, a single-hit dose-response model was proposed to describe the probability of hemolytic and uremic syndrome (HUS) as a function of the ingested dose. For each group, the single parameter of this model was estimated by Bayesian inference, using the results of the exposure assessment and the epidemiological data collected during the outbreak. Results show that children under 5 years of age are roughly 5 times more susceptible to the pathogen than children over 5 years. Exposure and dose-response models were used in a scenario analysis in order to validate the use of the model and to propose appropriate guidelines in order to prevent new outbreaks. The impact of the cooking preference was evaluated, showing that only a well-done cooking notably reduces the HUS risk, without annulling it. For each age group, a relation between the mean individual HUS risk per serving and the contamination level in a ground beef batch was proposed, as a tool to help French risk managers.

Quantitative risk assessment of the aggregate dermal exposure to the sensitizing fragrance geraniol in personal care products and household cleaning agents.

PubMed

Nijkamp, M M; Bokkers, B G H; Bakker, M I; Ezendam, J; Delmaar, J E

2015-10-01

A quantitative risk assessment was performed to establish if consumers are at risk for being dermally sensitized by the fragrance geraniol. Aggregate dermal exposure to geraniol was estimated using the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model, containing data on the use of personal care products and household cleaning agents. Consumer exposure to geraniol via personal care products appeared to be higher than via household cleaning agents. The hands were the body parts receiving the highest exposure to geraniol. Dermal sensitization studies were assessed to derive the point of departure needed for the estimation of the Acceptable Exposure Level (AEL). Two concentrations were derived, one based on human studies and the other from dose-response analysis of the available murine local lymph node assay data. The aggregate dermal exposure assessment resulted in body part specific median exposures up to 0.041 μg/cm(2) (highest exposure 102 μg/cm(2)) for hands. Comparing the exposure to the lowest AEL (55 μg/cm(2)), shows that a range of 0.02-0.86% of the population may have an aggregated exposure which exceeds the AEL. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that personal care products contribute more to the consumer's geraniol exposure compared to household cleaning agents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Qualitative to quantitative: linked trajectory of method triangulation in a study on HIV/AIDS in Goa, India.

PubMed

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2008-10-01

With 3.1 million people estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS in India and 39.5 million people globally, the epidemic has posed academics the challenge of identifying behaviours and their underlying beliefs in the effort to reduce the risk of HIV transmission. The Health Belief Model (HBM) is frequently used to identify risk behaviours and adherence behaviour in the field of HIV/AIDS. Risk behaviour studies that apply HBM have been largely quantitative and use of qualitative methodology is rare. The marriage of qualitative and quantitative methods has never been easy. The challenge is in triangulating the methods. Method triangulation has been largely used to combine insights from the qualitative and quantitative methods but not to link both the methods. In this paper we suggest a linked trajectory of method triangulation (LTMT). The linked trajectory aims to first gather individual level information through in-depth interviews and then to present the information as vignettes in focus group discussions. We thus validate information obtained from in-depth interviews and gather emic concepts that arise from the interaction. We thus capture both the interpretation and the interaction angles of the qualitative method. Further, using the qualitative information gained, a survey is designed. In doing so, the survey questions are grounded and contextualized. We employed this linked trajectory of method triangulation in a study on the risk assessment of HIV/AIDS among migrant and mobile men. Fieldwork was carried out in Goa, India. Data come from two waves of studies, first an explorative qualitative study (2003), second a larger study (2004-2005), including in-depth interviews (25), focus group discussions (21) and a survey (n=1259). By employing the qualitative to quantitative LTMT we can not only contextualize the existing concepts of the HBM, but also validate new concepts and identify new risk groups.

77 FR 20817 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-06

... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical... Deputy Director, National Center for Environmental Assessment, (mail code: 8601D), Office of Research and... program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from...

77 FR 41784 - Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS); Announcement of Availability of Literature Searches...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-16

... health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that..., National Center for Environmental Assessment, (mail code: 8601P), Office of Research and Development, U.S... quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that may result from exposure to specific chemical...

High-risk sun-tanning behaviour: a quantitative study in Denmark, 2008-2011.

PubMed

Hansen, M R; Bentzen, J

2014-09-01

The incidences of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer have increased markedly over the past 30 years. The main risk factor is ultraviolet radiation from the sun and from sunbeds. The Danish Sun Safety campaign was launched in 2007 to curb this development by reducing the exposure of adolescents and young children. In this study, the characteristics of high-risk sun-tanning behaviour were assessed and the effect of the campaign was determined. Cross-sectional study. Data from annual Internet surveys were compiled in 2008-2011 of 18, 685 15-64-year-old Danes. A tanning index based on sunbed use and intentional tanning in and outside Denmark was the outcome measure in a linear regression model, which included age, gender, skin type, education, income and survey year as exposure variables. High-risk tanning behaviour was associated with female gender, younger age, shorter education, skin type 3 or 4, higher income, smaller household and living in larger cities. The tanning index, where 100 represent high-risk behaviour, increased by 13.45 points for women as compared with men, dropped by 1.35 points for each 5-year increase in age, rose by 20.72 points for skin type 4 as compared with type 1 and increased by 10.33 points with an income >€105, 409 as compared with <€26, 352. High-risk behaviour decreased during the study period, especially among women and younger people. High-risk sun-tanning behaviour is linked to certain personal and social characteristics. After initiation of the Danish Sun Safety Campaign in 2007, this high-risk behaviour decreased, especially in the groups initially targeted by the campaign. The campaign may thus reduce the future incidence of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Translational benchmark risk analysis

PubMed Central

Piegorsch, Walter W.

2010-01-01

Translational development – in the sense of translating a mature methodology from one area of application to another, evolving area – is discussed for the use of benchmark doses in quantitative risk assessment. Illustrations are presented with traditional applications of the benchmark paradigm in biology and toxicology, and also with risk endpoints that differ from traditional toxicological archetypes. It is seen that the benchmark approach can apply to a diverse spectrum of risk management settings. This suggests a promising future for this important risk-analytic tool. Extensions of the method to a wider variety of applications represent a significant opportunity for enhancing environmental, biomedical, industrial, and socio-economic risk assessments. PMID:20953283

Quantitative nephelometry

MedlinePlus

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003545.htm Quantitative nephelometry test To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Quantitative nephelometry is a lab test to quickly and ...

Relationship between cardiopulmonary mortality and cancer risk and quantitative exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, fluorides, and dust in two prebake aluminum smelters.

PubMed

Friesen, Melissa C; Benke, Geza; Del Monaco, Anthony; Dennekamp, Martine; Fritschi, Lin; de Klerk, Nick; Hoving, Jan L; MacFarlane, Ewan; Sim, Malcolm R

2009-08-01

We examined the risk of mortality and cancer incidence with quantitative exposure to benzene-soluble fraction (BSF), benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), fluoride, and inhalable dust in two Australian prebake smelters. A total of 4,316 male smelter workers were linked to mortality and cancer incidence registries and followed from 1983 through 2002 (mean follow-up: 15.9 years, maximum: 20 years). Internal comparisons using Poisson regression were undertaken based on quantitative exposure levels. Smoking-adjusted, monotonic relationships were observed between respiratory cancer and cumulative inhalable dust exposure (trend p = 0.1), cumulative fluoride exposure (p = 0.1), and cumulative BaP exposure (p = 0.2). The exposure-response trends were stronger when examined across the exposed categories (BaP p = 0.1; inhalable dust p = 0.04). A monotonic, but not statistically significant trend was observed between cumulative BaP exposure and stomach cancer (n = 14). Bladder cancer was not associated with BaP or BSF exposure. No other cancer and no mortality outcomes were associated with these smelter exposures. The carcinogenicity of Söderberg smelter exposures is well established; in these prebake smelters we observed an association between smelter exposures and respiratory cancer, but not bladder cancer. The exploratory finding for stomach cancer needs confirmation. These results are preliminary due to the young cohort and short follow-up time.

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

2017-05-01

Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

The Positive Alternative Credit Experience (PACE) Program a Quantitative Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warren, Rebecca Anne

2011-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative comparative study was to evaluate the Positive Alternative Credit Experience (PACE) Program using an objectives-oriented approach to a formative program evaluation. The PACE Program was a semester-long high school alternative education program designed to serve students at-risk for academic failure or dropping out…

A risk microbiological profile of the Australian red meat industry: risk ratings of hazard-product pairings.

PubMed

Sumner, John; Ross, Tom; Jenson, Ian; Pointon, Andrew

2005-11-25

A risk profile of microbial hazards across the supply continuum for the beef, sheep and goat meat industries was developed using both a qualitative tool and a semi-quantitative, spreadsheet tool, Risk Ranger. The latter is useful for highlighting factors contributing to food safety risk and for ranking the risk of various product/pathogen combinations. In the present profile the qualitative tool was used as a preliminary screen for a wide range of hazard-product pairings while Risk Ranger was used to rank in order of population health risk pairings for which quantitative data were available and for assessing the effect of hypothetical scenarios. 'High' risk hazard-product pairings identified were meals contaminated with Clostridium perfringens provided by caterers which have not implemented HACCP; kebabs cross-contaminated by Salmonella present in drip trays or served undercooked; meals served in the home cross-contaminated with Salmonella. 'Medium' risk hazard-product pairings identified were ready-to-eat meats contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes and which have extended shelf life; Uncooked Comminuted Fermented Meat (UCFM)/Salami contaminated with Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) and Salmonella; undercooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC; kebabs contaminated by Salmonella under normal production or following final "flash" heating. Identified 'low' risk hazard-product pairings included cooked, ready-to-eat sausages contaminated with Salmonella; UCFM/Salami contaminated with L. monocytogenes; well-cooked hamburgers contaminated with EHEC. The risk profile provides information of value to Australia's risk managers in the regulatory, processing and R&D sectors of the meat and meat processing industry for the purposes of identifying food safety risks in the industry and for prioritising risk management actions.

Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kodama, Satoru; Fujihara, Kazuya; Ishiguro, Hajime; Horikawa, Chika; Ohara, Nobumasa; Yachi, Yoko; Tanaka, Shiro; Shimano, Hitoshi; Kato, Kiminori; Hanyu, Osamu; Sone, Hirohito

2018-01-05

Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs) of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs) for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR) of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA) in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.19). In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08-1.13). There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies). The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies). The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution.

Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kodama, Satoru; Fujihara, Kazuya; Ishiguro, Hajime; Horikawa, Chika; Ohara, Nobumasa; Yachi, Yoko; Tanaka, Shiro; Shimano, Hitoshi; Kato, Kiminori; Hanyu, Osamu; Sone, Hirohito

2018-01-01

Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs) of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs) for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR) of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA) in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.19). In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08–1.13). There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies). The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies). The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution. PMID:29093303

Peer effects in risk aversion.

PubMed

Balsa, Ana I; Gandelman, Néstor; González, Nicolás

2015-01-01

We estimate peer effects in risk attitudes in a sample of high school students. Relative risk aversion is elicited from surveys administered at school. Identification of peer effects is based on parents not being able to choose the class within the school of their choice, and on the use of instrumental variables conditional on school-grade fixed effects. We find a significant and quantitatively large impact of peers' risk attitudes on a male individual's coefficient of risk aversion. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the group's coefficient of risk aversion increases an individual's risk aversion by 43%. Our findings shed light on the origin and stability of risk attitudes and, more generally, on the determinants of economic preferences. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Clinical Utility of Quantitative Gleason Grading in Prostate Biopsies and Prostatectomy Specimens.

PubMed

Sauter, Guido; Steurer, Stefan; Clauditz, Till Sebastian; Krech, Till; Wittmer, Corinna; Lutz, Florian; Lennartz, Maximilian; Janssen, Tim; Hakimi, Nayira; Simon, Ronald; von Petersdorff-Campen, Mareike; Jacobsen, Frank; von Loga, Katharina; Wilczak, Waldemar; Minner, Sarah; Tsourlakis, Maria Christina; Chirico, Viktoria; Haese, Alexander; Heinzer, Hans; Beyer, Burkhard; Graefen, Markus; Michl, Uwe; Salomon, Georg; Steuber, Thomas; Budäus, Lars Henrik; Hekeler, Elena; Malsy-Mink, Julia; Kutzera, Sven; Fraune, Christoph; Göbel, Cosima; Huland, Hartwig; Schlomm, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Gleason grading is the strongest prognostic parameter in prostate cancer. Gleason grading is categorized as Gleason ≤ 6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8, and 9-10, but there is variability within these subgroups. For example, Gleason 4 components may range from 5-45% in a Gleason 3 + 4 = 7 cancer. To assess the clinical relevance of the fractions of Gleason patterns. Prostatectomy specimens from 12823 consecutive patients and of 2971 matched preoperative biopsies for which clinical data with an annual follow-up between 2005 and 2014 were available from the Martini-Klinik database. To evaluate the utility of quantitative grading, the fraction of Gleason 3, 4, and 5 patterns seen in biopsies and prostatectomies were recorded. Gleason grade fractions were compared with prostatectomy findings and prostate-specific antigen recurrence. Our data suggest a striking utility of quantitative Gleason grading. In prostatectomy specimens, there was a continuous increase of the risk of prostate-specific antigen recurrence with increasing percentage of Gleason 4 fractions with remarkably small differences in outcome at clinically important thresholds (0% vs 5%; 40% vs 60% Gleason 4), distinguishing traditionally established prognostic groups. Also, in biopsies, the quantitative Gleason scoring identified various intermediate risk groups with respect to Gleason findings in corresponding prostatectomies. Quantitative grading may also reduce the clinical impact of interobserver variability because borderline findings such as tumors with 5%, 40%, or 60% Gleason 4 fractions and very small Gleason 5 fractions (with pivotal impact on the Gleason score) are disclaimed. Quantitative Gleason pattern data should routinely be provided in addition to Gleason score categories, both in biopsies and in prostatectomy specimens. Gleason score is the most important prognostic parameter in prostate cancer, but prone to interobserver variation. The results of our study show that morphological aspects that define

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

[Quantitative classification in catering trade and countermeasures of supervision and management in Hunan Province].

PubMed

Liu, Xiulan; Chen, Lizhang; He, Xiang

2012-02-01

To analyze the status quo of quantitative classification in Hunan Province catering industry, and to discuss the countermeasures in-depth. According to relevant laws and regulations, and after referring to Daily supervision and quantitative scoring sheet and consulting experts, a checklist of key supervision indicators was made. The implementation of quantitative classification in 10 cities in Hunan Province was studied, and the status quo was analyzed. All the 390 catering units implemented quantitative classified management. The larger the catering enterprise, the higher level of quantitative classification. In addition to cafeterias, the smaller the catering units, the higher point of deduction, and snack bars and beverage stores were the highest. For those quantified and classified as C and D, the point of deduction was higher in the procurement and storage of raw materials, operation processing and other aspects. The quantitative classification of Hunan Province has relatively wide coverage. There are hidden risks in food security in small catering units, snack bars, and beverage stores. The food hygienic condition of Hunan Province needs to be improved.

Quantitative cancer risk assessment for ethylene oxide inhalation in occupational settings.

PubMed

Valdez-Flores, Ciriaco; Sielken, Robert L; Teta, M Jane

2011-10-01

The estimated occupational ethylene oxide (EO) exposure concentrations corresponding to specified extra risks are calculated for lymphoid mortality as the most appropriate endpoint, despite the lack of a statistically significant exposure-response relationship. These estimated concentrations are for occupational exposures--40 years of occupational inhalation exposure to EO from age 20 to age 60 years. The estimated occupational inhalation exposure concentrations (ppm) corresponding to specified extra risks of lymphoid mortality to age 70 years in a population of male and female EO workers are based on Cox proportional hazards models of the most recent updated epidemiology cohort mortality studies of EO workers and a standard life-table calculation. An occupational exposure at an inhalation concentration of 2.77 ppm EO is estimated to result in an extra risk of lymphoid mortality of 4 in 10,000 (0.0004) in the combined worker population of men and women from the two studies. The corresponding estimated concentration decreases slightly to 2.27 ppm when based on only the men in the updated cohorts combined. The difference in these estimates reflects the difference between combining all of the available data or focusing on only the men and excluding the women who did not show an increase in lymphoid mortality with EO inhalation exposure. The results of sensitivity analyses using other mortality endpoints (all lymphohematopoietic tissue cancers, leukemia) support the choice of lymphoid tumor mortality for estimation of extra risk.

Quantitative PCR for Detection and Enumeration of Genetic Markers of Bovine Fecal Pollution

EPA Science Inventory

Accurate assessment of health risks associated with bovine (cattle) fecal pollution requires a reliable host-specific genetic marker and a rapid quantification method. We report the development of quantitative PCR assays for the detection of two recently described cow feces-spec...

Risk compensation behaviours in construction workers' activities.

PubMed

Feng, Yingbin; Wu, Peng

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test whether the construction workers have the tendency of engaging in risk compensation behaviours, and identify the demographic variables, which may influence the extent to which the construction workers may show risk compensation behaviours. Both quantitative (survey) and qualitative (interviews) approaches were used in this study. A questionnaire survey was conducted with all the construction workers on three building construction sites of a leading construction company in Australia. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted to validate the findings of the quantitative research. The findings indicate that workers tend to show risk compensation behaviours in the construction environment. The workers with more working experience, higher education, or having never been injured at work before have a higher tendency to show risk compensation in their activities than the others. The implication is that contractors need to assess the potential influence of workers' risk compensation behaviours when evaluating the effect of risk control measures. It is recommended that supervisors pay more attention to the behavioural changes of those workers who have more experience, higher education, and have never been injured before after the implementation of new safety control measures on construction site.

Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

2018-03-01

This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative User Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2009-12-01

for a given problem is presented. Based on climate science, meteorology, and the details of the question in hand, this approach identifies necessary (never sufficient) conditions required for the rational use of climate model output in quantitative decision support tools. Inasmuch as climate forecasting is a problem of extrapolation, there will always be harsh limits on our ability to establish where a model is fit for purpose, this does not, however, limit us from identifying model noise as such, and thereby avoiding some cases of the misapplication and over interpretation of model output. It is suggested that failure to clearly communicate the limits of today’s climate model in providing quantitative decision relevant climate information to today’s users of climate information, would risk the credibility of tomorrow’s climate science and science based policy more generally.

Detection of hemoplasma infection of goats by use of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay and risk factor analysis for infection.

PubMed

Johnson, Kathy A; do Nascimento, Naíla C; Bauer, Amy E; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Hammac, G Kenitra; Messick, Joanne B

2016-08-01

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the detection and quantification of Mycoplasma ovis in goats and investigate the prevalence and risk factors for hemoplasma infection of goats located in Indiana. ANIMALS 362 adult female goats on 61 farms. PROCEDURES Primers were designed for amplification of a fragment of the dnaK gene of M ovis by use of a qPCR assay. Blood samples were collected into EDTA-containing tubes for use in total DNA extraction, blood film evaluation, and determination of PCV. Limit of detection, intra-assay variability, interassay variability, and specificity of the assay were determined. RESULTS Reaction efficiency of the qPCR assay was 94.45% (R(2), 0.99; slope, -3.4623), and the assay consistently detected as few as 10 copies of plasmid/reaction. Prevalence of infection in goats on the basis of results for the qPCR assay was 18.0% (95% confidence interval, 14% to 22%), with infected goats ranging from 1 to 14 years old, whereby 61% (95% confidence interval, 47% to 73%) of the farms had at least 1 infected goat. Bacterial load in goats infected with M ovis ranged from 1.05 × 10(3) target copies/mL of blood to 1.85 × 10(5) target copies/mL of blood; however, no bacteria were observed on blood films. Production use of a goat was the only risk factor significantly associated with hemoplasma infection. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The qPCR assay was more sensitive for detecting hemoplasma infection than was evaluation of a blood film, and production use of a goat was a risk factor for infection.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars.

PubMed

Franz, E; Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2010-02-01

Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5 degrees C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Connecting qualitative observation and quantitative measurement for enhancing quantitative literacy in plant anatomy course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuraeni, E.; Rahmat, A.

2018-05-01

Forming of cognitive schemes of plant anatomy concepts is performed by processing of qualitative and quantitative data obtained from microscopic observations. To enhancing student’s quantitative literacy, strategy of plant anatomy course was modified by adding the task to analyze quantitative data produced by quantitative measurement of plant anatomy guided by material course. Participant in this study was 24 biology students and 35 biology education students. Quantitative Literacy test, complex thinking in plant anatomy test and questioner used to evaluate the course. Quantitative literacy capability data was collected by quantitative literacy test with the rubric from the Association of American Colleges and Universities, Complex thinking in plant anatomy by test according to Marzano and questioner. Quantitative literacy data are categorized according to modified Rhodes and Finley categories. The results showed that quantitative literacy of biology education students is better than biology students.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

The utility of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, calcaneal quantitative ultrasound, and fracture risk indices (FRAX® and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument) for the identification of women with distal forearm or hip fractures: A pilot study.

PubMed

Esmaeilzadeh, Sina; Cesme, Fatih; Oral, Aydan; Yaliman, Ayse; Sindel, Dilsad

2016-08-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is considered the "gold standard" in predicting osteoporotic fractures. Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS) variables are also known to predict fractures. Fracture risk assessment tools may also guide us for the detection of individuals at high risk for fractures. The aim of this case-control study was to evaluate the utility of DXA bone mineral density (BMD), calcaneal QUS parameters, FRAX® (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool), and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI) for the discrimination of women with distal forearm or hip fractures. This case-control study included 20 women with a distal forearm fracture and 18 women with a hip fracture as cases and 76 age-matched women served as controls. BMD at the spine, proximal femur, and radius was measured using DXA and acoustic parameters of bone were obtained using a calcaneal QUS device. FRAX® 10-year probability of fracture and ORAI scores were also calculated in all participants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess fracture discriminatory power of all the tools. While all DXA BMD, and QUS variables and FRAX® fracture probabilities demonstrated significant areas under the ROC curves for the discrimination of hip-fractured women and those without, only 33% radius BMD, broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability calculated without BMD showed significant discriminatory power for distal forearm fractures. It can be concluded that QUS variables, particularly BUA, and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability without BMD are good candidates for the identification of both hip and distal forearm fractures.

Public Risk Criteria and Rationale for Commercial Launch and Reentry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilde, P. D.

2012-01-01

This paper summarizes the rationale for risk criteria intended to protect the public during commercial spaceflight, including launch, reentry, and suborbital missions. The recommended approach includes: (1) safety goals to guide periodic updates of the quantitative collective risk limits if warranted based on the quantity of launch and reentry missions; the demonstrated safety record and benefits provided; technological capabilities and maturity of the industry; and contemporary attitudes about the risks from commercial space transportation; (2) separate limits on the risks from each type of mission with explicit definitions of the extent of launch and reentry missions; and (3) quantitative risk limits consistent with the safety goals. For current conditions, the author's recommends (a) maximum of 1E-6 probability of casualty per-mission (b) a maximum of 100E-6 expected casualties per-mission, and (c) equal per-mission risk limits for orbital and suborbital launches, as well as controlled and uncontrolled reentries.

Evaluation of airway protection: Quantitative timing measures versus penetration/aspiration score.

PubMed

Kendall, Katherine A

2017-10-01

Quantitative measures of swallowing function may improve the reliability and accuracy of modified barium swallow (MBS) study interpretation. Quantitative study analysis has not been widely instituted, however, secondary to concerns about the time required to make measures and a lack of research demonstrating impact on MBS interpretation. This study compares the accuracy of the penetration/aspiration (PEN/ASP) scale (an observational visual-perceptual assessment tool) to quantitative measures of airway closure timing relative to the arrival of the bolus at the upper esophageal sphincter in identifying a failure of airway protection during deglutition. Retrospective review of clinical swallowing data from a university-based outpatient clinic. Swallowing data from 426 patients were reviewed. Patients with normal PEN/ASP scores were identified, and the results of quantitative airway closure timing measures for three liquid bolus sizes were evaluated. The incidence of significant airway closure delay with and without a normal PEN/ASP score was determined. Inter-rater reliability for the quantitative measures was calculated. In patients with a normal PEN/ASP score, 33% demonstrated a delay in airway closure on at least one swallow during the MBS study. There was no correlation between PEN/ASP score and airway closure delay. Inter-rater reliability for the quantitative measure of airway closure timing was nearly perfect (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.973). The use of quantitative measures of swallowing function, in conjunction with traditional visual perceptual methods of MBS study interpretation, improves the identification of airway closure delay, and hence, potential aspiration risk, even when no penetration or aspiration is apparent on the MBS study. 4. Laryngoscope, 127:2314-2318, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Assessing vertebral fracture risk on volumetric quantitative computed tomography by geometric characterization of trabecular bone structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Checefsky, Walter A.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Nagarajan, Mahesh B.; Bauer, Jan S.; Baum, Thomas; Wismüller, Axel

2016-03-01

The current clinical standard for measuring Bone Mineral Density (BMD) is dual X-ray absorptiometry, however more recently BMD derived from volumetric quantitative computed tomography has been shown to demonstrate a high association with spinal fracture susceptibility. In this study, we propose a method of fracture risk assessment using structural properties of trabecular bone in spinal vertebrae. Experimental data was acquired via axial multi-detector CT (MDCT) from 12 spinal vertebrae specimens using a whole-body 256-row CT scanner with a dedicated calibration phantom. Common image processing methods were used to annotate the trabecular compartment in the vertebral slices creating a circular region of interest (ROI) that excluded cortical bone for each slice. The pixels inside the ROI were converted to values indicative of BMD. High dimensional geometrical features were derived using the scaling index method (SIM) at different radii and scaling factors (SF). The mean BMD values within the ROI were then extracted and used in conjunction with a support vector machine to predict the failure load of the specimens. Prediction performance was measured using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) metric and determined that SIM combined with mean BMD features (RMSE = 0.82 +/- 0.37) outperformed MDCT-measured mean BMD (RMSE = 1.11 +/- 0.33) (p < 10-4). These results demonstrate that biomechanical strength prediction in vertebrae can be significantly improved through the use of SIM-derived texture features from trabecular bone.

Quantitative assessment model for gastric cancer screening

PubMed Central

Chen, Kun; Yu, Wei-Ping; Song, Liang; Zhu, Yi-Min

2005-01-01

AIM: To set up a mathematic model for gastric cancer screening and to evaluate its function in mass screening for gastric cancer. METHODS: A case control study was carried on in 66 patients and 198 normal people, then the risk and protective factors of gastric cancer were determined, including heavy manual work, foods such as small yellow-fin tuna, dried small shrimps, squills, crabs, mothers suffering from gastric diseases, spouse alive, use of refrigerators and hot food, etc. According to some principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a quantitative assessment model was established as follows: first, we selected some factors significant in statistics, and calculated weight coefficient for each one by two different methods; second, population space was divided into gastric cancer fuzzy subset and non gastric cancer fuzzy subset, then a mathematic model for each subset was established, we got a mathematic expression of attribute degree (AD). RESULTS: Based on the data of 63 patients and 693 normal people, AD of each subject was calculated. Considering the sensitivity and specificity, the thresholds of AD values calculated were configured with 0.20 and 0.17, respectively. According to these thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative model were about 69% and 63%. Moreover, statistical test showed that the identification outcomes of these two different calculation methods were identical (P>0.05). CONCLUSION: The validity of this method is satisfactory. It is convenient, feasible, economic and can be used to determine individual and population risks of gastric cancer. PMID:15655813

Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

Assessing Risks to Sea Otters and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill: New Scenarios, Attributable Risk, and Recovery

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.

2014-01-01

The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred more than two decades ago, and the Prince William Sound ecosystem has essentially recovered. Nevertheless, discussion continues on whether or not localized effects persist on sea otters (Enhydra lutris) at northern Knight Island (NKI) and, if so, what are the associated attributable risks. A recent study estimated new rates of sea otter encounters with subsurface oil residues (SSOR) from the oil spill. We previously demonstrated that a potential pathway existed for exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and conducted a quantitative ecological risk assessment using an individual-based model that simulated this and other plausible exposure pathways. Here we quantitatively update the potential for this exposure pathway to constitute an ongoing risk to sea otters using the new estimates of SSOR encounters. Our conservative model predicted that the assimilated doses of PAHs to the 1-in-1000th most-exposed sea otters would remain 1–2 orders of magnitude below the chronic effects thresholds. We re-examine the baseline estimates, post-spill surveys, recovery status, and attributable risks for this subpopulation. We conclude that the new estimated frequencies of encountering SSOR do not constitute a plausible risk for sea otters at NKI and these sea otters have fully recovered from the oil spill. PMID:24587690

Quantitative research.

PubMed

Watson, Roger

2015-04-01

This article describes the basic tenets of quantitative research. The concepts of dependent and independent variables are addressed and the concept of measurement and its associated issues, such as error, reliability and validity, are explored. Experiments and surveys – the principal research designs in quantitative research – are described and key features explained. The importance of the double-blind randomised controlled trial is emphasised, alongside the importance of longitudinal surveys, as opposed to cross-sectional surveys. Essential features of data storage are covered, with an emphasis on safe, anonymous storage. Finally, the article explores the analysis of quantitative data, considering what may be analysed and the main uses of statistics in analysis.

Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah; Repins, Ingrid L; Hacke, Peter L

Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured accelerationmore » factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.« less

The influence of graphic format on breast cancer risk communication.

PubMed

Schapira, Marilyn M; Nattinger, Ann B; McAuliffe, Timothy L

2006-09-01

Graphic displays can enhance quantitative risk communication. However, empiric data regarding the effect of graphic format on risk perception is lacking. We evaluate the effect of graphic format elements on perceptions of risk magnitude and perceived truth of data. Preferences for format also were assessed. Participants (254 female primary care patients) viewed a series of hypothetical risk communications regarding the lifetime risk of breast cancer. Identical numeric risk information was presented using different graphic formats. Risk was perceived to be of lower magnitude when communicated with a bar graph as compared with a pictorial display (p < 0.0001), or with consecutively versus randomly highlighted symbols in a pictorial display (p = 0.0001). Data were perceived to be more true when presented with random versus consecutive highlights in a pictorial display (p < 0.01). A pictorial display was preferred to a bar graph format for the presentation of breast cancer risk estimates alone (p = 0.001). When considering breast cancer risk in comparison to heart disease, stroke, and osteoporosis, however, bar graphs were preferred pictorial displays (p < 0.001). In conclusion, elements of graphic format used to convey quantitative risk information effects key domains of risk perception. One must be cognizant of these effects when designing risk communication strategies.

Quantitative body fluid proteomics in medicine - A focus on minimal invasiveness.

PubMed

Csősz, Éva; Kalló, Gergő; Márkus, Bernadett; Deák, Eszter; Csutak, Adrienne; Tőzsér, József

2017-02-05

Identification of new biomarkers specific for various pathological conditions is an important field in medical sciences. Body fluids have emerging potential in biomarker studies especially those which are continuously available and can be collected by non-invasive means. Changes in the protein composition of body fluids such as tears, saliva, sweat, etc. may provide information on both local and systemic conditions of medical relevance. In this review, our aim is to discuss the quantitative proteomics techniques used in biomarker studies, and to present advances in quantitative body fluid proteomics of non-invasively collectable body fluids with relevance to biomarker identification. The advantages and limitations of the widely used quantitative proteomics techniques are also presented. Based on the reviewed literature, we suggest an ideal pipeline for body fluid analyses aiming at biomarkers discoveries: starting from identification of biomarker candidates by shotgun quantitative proteomics or protein arrays, through verification of potential biomarkers by targeted mass spectrometry, to the antibody-based validation of biomarkers. The importance of body fluids as a rich source of biomarkers is discussed. Quantitative proteomics is a challenging part of proteomics applications. The body fluids collected by non-invasive means have high relevance in medicine; they are good sources for biomarkers used in establishing the diagnosis, follow up of disease progression and predicting high risk groups. The review presents the most widely used quantitative proteomics techniques in body fluid analysis and lists the potential biomarkers identified in tears, saliva, sweat, nasal mucus and urine for local and systemic diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Mmc; Vis, J Y; Wilms, F F; Oudijk, M A; Kwee, A; Porath, M M; Oei, G; Scheepers, Hcj; Spaanderman, Mea; Bloemenkamp, Kwm; Haak, M C; Bolte, A C; Vandenbussche, Fpha; Woiski, M D; Bax, C J; Cornette, Jmj; Duvekot, J J; Nij Bijvanck, Bwa; van Eyck, J; Franssen, Mtm; Sollie, K M; van der Post, Jam; Bossuyt, Pmm; Opmeer, B C; Kok, M; Mol, Bwj; van Baaren, G-J

2016-11-01

To evaluate whether in symptomatic women, the combination of quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) improves the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN and CL. Post hoc analysis of frozen fFN samples of a nationwide cohort study. Ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. Symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation. The risk of PTD <7 days was estimated in predefined CL and fFN strata. We used logistic regression to develop a model including quantitative fFN and CL, and one including qualitative fFN (threshold 50 ng/ml) and CL. We compared the models' capacity to identify women at low risk (<5%) for delivery within 7 days using a reclassification table. Spontaneous delivery within 7 days after study entry. We studied 350 women, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within 7 days. The risk of PTD in <7 days ranged from 2% in the lowest fFN group (<10 ng/ml) to 71% in the highest group (>500 ng/ml). Multivariable logistic regression showed an increasing risk of PTD in <7 days with rising fFN concentration [10-49 ng/ml: odds ratio (OR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.23-7.0; 50-199 ng/ml: OR 3.2, 95% CI 0.79-13; 200-499 ng/ml: OR 9.0, 95% CI 2.3-35; >500 ng/ml: OR 39, 95% CI 9.4-164] and shortening of the CL (OR 0.86 per mm, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). Use of quantitative fFN instead of qualitative fFN resulted in reclassification of 18 (5%) women from high to low risk, of whom one (6%) woman delivered within 7 days. In symptomatic women, quantitative fFN testing does not improve the prediction of PTD within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN testing in combination with CL measurement in terms of reclassification from high to low (<5%) risk, but it adds value across the risk range. Quantitative fFN testing adds value to qualitative fFN testing with CL measurement in the prediction of PTD. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

PubMed Central

Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness

Quantitative risk estimation for large for gestational age using the area under the 100-g oral glucose tolerance test curve.

PubMed

Kim, Sollip; Min, Won-Ki; Chun, Sail; Lee, Woochang; Chung, Hee-Jung; Lee, Pil Ryang; Kim, Ahm

2009-01-01

We devised a complementary quantitative method for gestational diabetes (GDM) that uses the area under the curve (AUC) of the results of the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and evaluated its efficacy in predicting neonates that would be large for gestational age (LGA). The study subjects were 648 pregnant women. The AUC-OGTT (concentration x time) was calculated from the 100-g OGTT results. The incidence of LGA according to each range of the AUC-OGTT was estimated and odds ratios were analyzed using multiple logistic regression analysis.The incidence of LGA increased with the AUC-OGTT value and was 0% for AUC<300, 7.8% for 300-400, 14.9% for 400-500, 20.8% for 500-600, and 45.5% for > or = 600. The odds ratio of LGA increased by approximately two-fold with an increase of 100 in the AUC-OGTT. The results indicated that the AUC-OGTT can be used to quantify the risk of LGA in GDM. The AUC-OGTT could complement a diagnosis of GDM using conventional diagnostic criteria.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sergeant, Evan S.

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country. PMID:26986002

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

PubMed

Sergeant, Evan S; Grewar, John D; Weyer, Camilla T; Guthrie, Alan J

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country.

Abortion and mental health: quantitative synthesis and analysis of research published 1995-2009.

PubMed

Coleman, Priscilla K

2011-09-01

Given the methodological limitations of recently published qualitative reviews of abortion and mental health, a quantitative synthesis was deemed necessary to represent more accurately the published literature and to provide clarity to clinicians. To measure the association between abortion and indicators of adverse mental health, with subgroup effects calculated based on comparison groups (no abortion, unintended pregnancy delivered, pregnancy delivered) and particular outcomes. A secondary objective was to calculate population-attributable risk (PAR) statistics for each outcome. After the application of methodologically based selection criteria and extraction rules to minimise bias, the sample comprised 22 studies, 36 measures of effect and 877 181 participants (163 831 experienced an abortion). Random effects pooled odds ratios were computed using adjusted odds ratios from the original studies and PAR statistics were derived from the pooled odds ratios. Women who had undergone an abortion experienced an 81% increased risk of mental health problems, and nearly 10% of the incidence of mental health problems was shown to be attributable to abortion. The strongest subgroup estimates of increased risk occurred when abortion was compared with term pregnancy and when the outcomes pertained to substance use and suicidal behaviour. This review offers the largest quantitative estimate of mental health risks associated with abortion available in the world literature. Calling into question the conclusions from traditional reviews, the results revealed a moderate to highly increased risk of mental health problems after abortion. Consistent with the tenets of evidence-based medicine, this information should inform the delivery of abortion services.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

The impact of item order on ratings of cancer risk perception.

PubMed

Taylor, Kathryn L; Shelby, Rebecca A; Schwartz, Marc D; Ackerman, Josh; LaSalle, V Holland; Gelmann, Edward P; McGuire, Colleen

2002-07-01

Although perceived risk is central to most theories of health behavior, there is little consensus on its measurement with regard to item wording, response set, or the number of items to include. In a methodological assessment of perceived risk, we assessed the impact of changing the order of three commonly used perceived risk items: quantitative personal risk, quantitative population risk, and comparative risk. Participants were 432 men and women enrolled in an ancillary study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Three groups of consecutively enrolled participants responded to the three items in one of three question orders. Results indicated that item order was related to the perceived risk ratings of both ovarian (P < 0.05) and colorectal (P < 0.05) cancers. Perceptions of risk were significantly lower when the comparative rating was made first. The findings suggest that compelling participants to consider their own risk relative to the risk of others results in lower ratings of perceived risk. Although the use of multiple items may provide more information than when only a single method is used, different conclusions may be reached depending on the context in which an item is assessed.

Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

2017-06-01

Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

PubMed

Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

2009-03-15

This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.

Essentiality, toxicity, and uncertainty in the risk assessment of manganese.

PubMed

Boyes, William K

2010-01-01

Risk assessments of manganese by inhalation or oral routes of exposure typically acknowledge the duality of manganese as an essential element at low doses and a toxic metal at high doses. Previously, however, risk assessors were unable to describe manganese pharmacokinetics quantitatively across dose levels and routes of exposure, to account for mass balance, and to incorporate this information into a quantitative risk assessment. In addition, the prior risk assessment of inhaled manganese conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified a number of specific factors that contributed to uncertainty in the risk assessment. In response to a petition regarding the use of a fuel additive containing manganese, methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT), the U.S. EPA developed a test rule under the U.S. Clean Air Act that required, among other things, the generation of pharmacokinetic information. This information was intended not only to aid in the design of health outcome studies, but also to help address uncertainties in the risk assessment of manganese. To date, the work conducted in response to the test rule has yielded substantial pharmacokinetic data. This information will enable the generation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models capable of making quantitative predictions of tissue manganese concentrations following inhalation and oral exposure, across dose levels, and accounting for factors such as duration of exposure, different species of manganese, and changes of age, gender, and reproductive status. The work accomplished in response to the test rule, in combination with other scientific evidence, will enable future manganese risk assessments to consider tissue dosimetry more comprehensively than was previously possible.

Bacteria, viruses, and parasites in an intermittent stream protected from and exposed to pasturing cattle: prevalence, densities, and quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Wilkes, G; Brassard, J; Edge, T A; Gannon, V; Jokinen, C C; Jones, T H; Neumann, N; Pintar, K D M; Ruecker, N; Schmidt, P J; Sunohara, M; Topp, E; Lapen, D R

2013-10-15

Over 3500 individual water samples, for 131 sampling times, targeting waterborne pathogens/fecal indicator bacteria were collected during a 7-year period from 4 sites along an intermittent stream running through a small livestock pasture system with and without cattle access-to-stream restriction measures. The study assessed the impact of cattle pasturing/riparian zone protection on: pathogen (bacterial, viral, parasite) occurrence, concentrations of fecal indicators, and quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA) of the risk of Cryptosporidium, Giardia and Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection in humans. Methodologies were developed to compute QMRA mean risks on the basis of water samples exhibiting potentially human infectious Cryptosporidium and E. coli based on genotyping Crytosporidium, and E. coli O157:H7 presence/absence information paired with enumerated E. coli. All Giardia spp. were considered infectious. No significant pasturing treatment effects were observed among pathogens, with the exception of Campylobacter spp. and E. coli O157:H7. Campylobacter spp. prevalence significantly decreased downstream through pasture treatments and E. coli O157:H7 was observed in a few instances in the middle of the unrestricted pasture. Densities of total coliform, fecal coliform, and E. coli reduced significantly downstream in the restricted pasture system, but not in the unrestricted system. Seasonal and flow conditions were associated with greater indicator bacteria densities, especially in the summer. Norovirus GII was detected at rates of 7-22% of samples for all monitoring sites, and rotavirus in 0-7% of samples for all monitoring sites; pasture treatment trends were not evident, however. Seasonal and stream flow variables (and their interactions) were relatively more important than pasture treatments for initially stratifying pathogen occurrence and higher fecal indicator bacteria densities. Significant positive associations among fecal indicator bacteria and

Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Pulmonary Emphysema with T2-Weighted PROPELLER MRI in a High-Risk Population Compared to Low-Dose CT.

PubMed

Meier-Schroers, Michael; Sprinkart, Alois Martin; Becker, Manuel; Homsi, Rami; Thomas, Daniel

2018-03-07

patients with severe emphysema to avoid radiation exposure of repeated CTs.. · Meier-Schroers M, Sprinkart AM, Becker M et al. Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment of Pulmonary Emphysema with T2-Weighted PROPELLER MRI in a High-Risk Population Compared to Low-Dose CT. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2018; DOI: 10.1055/a-0577-5619. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Cluster analysis of bone microarchitecture from high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography demonstrates two separate phenotypes associated with high fracture risk in men and women.

PubMed

Edwards, M H; Robinson, D E; Ward, K A; Javaid, M K; Walker-Bone, K; Cooper, C; Dennison, E M

2016-07-01

Osteoporosis is a major healthcare problem which is conventionally assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). New technologies such as high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) also predict fracture risk. HRpQCT measures a number of bone characteristics that may inform specific patterns of bone deficits. We used cluster analysis to define different bone phenotypes and their relationships to fracture prevalence and areal bone mineral density (BMD). 177 men and 159 women, in whom fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment, underwent HRpQCT of the distal radius and femoral neck DXA. Five clusters were derived with two clusters associated with elevated fracture risk. "Cluster 1" contained 26 women (50.0% fractured) and 30 men (50.0% fractured) with a lower mean cortical thickness and cortical volumetric BMD, and in men only, a mean total and trabecular area more than the sex-specific cohort mean. "Cluster 2" contained 20 women (50.0% fractured) and 14 men (35.7% fractured) with a lower mean trabecular density and trabecular number than the sex-specific cohort mean. Logistic regression showed fracture rates in these clusters to be significantly higher than the lowest fracture risk cluster [5] (p<0.05). Mean femoral neck areal BMD was significantly lower than cluster 5 in women in cluster 1 and 2 (p<0.001 for both), and in men, in cluster 2 (p<0.001) but not 1 (p=0.220). In conclusion, this study demonstrates two distinct high risk clusters in both men and women which may differ in etiology and response to treatment. As cluster 1 in men does not have low areal BMD, these men may not be identified as high risk by conventional DXA alone. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Size-adjusted Quantitative Gleason Score as a Predictor of Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Deng, Fang-Ming; Donin, Nicholas M; Pe Benito, Ruth; Melamed, Jonathan; Le Nobin, Julien; Zhou, Ming; Ma, Sisi; Wang, Jinhua; Lepor, Herbert

2016-08-01

The risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy for pathologic Gleason 7 prostate cancer varies according to the proportion of Gleason 4 component. We sought to explore the value of several novel quantitative metrics of Gleason 4 disease for the prediction of BCR in men with Gleason 7 disease. We analyzed a cohort of 2630 radical prostatectomy cases from 1990-2007. All pathologic Gleason 7 cases were identified and assessed for quantity of Gleason pattern 4. Three methods were used to quantify the extent of Gleason 4: a quantitative Gleason score (qGS) based on the proportion of tumor composed of Gleason pattern 4, a size-weighted score (swGS) incorporating the overall quantity of Gleason 4, and a size index (siGS) incorporating the quantity of Gleason 4 based on the index lesion. Associations between the above metrics and BCR were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. qGS, swGS, and siGS were significantly associated with BCR on multivariate analysis when adjusted for traditional Gleason score, age, prostate specific antigen, surgical margin, and stage. Using Harrell's c-index to compare the scoring systems, qGS (0.83), swGS (0.84), and siGS (0.84) all performed better than the traditional Gleason score (0.82). Quantitative measures of Gleason pattern 4 predict BCR better than the traditional Gleason score. In men with Gleason 7 prostate cancer, quantitative analysis of the proportion of Gleason pattern 4 (quantitative Gleason score), as well as size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 (size-weighted Gleason score), and a size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 based on the largest tumor nodule significantly improve the predicted risk of biochemical recurrence compared with the traditional Gleason score. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the risk of foreign animal disease introduction into the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships.

PubMed

McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Fite, R W; Miller, L

1993-12-01

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

Qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of the osmoregulation system in yeast

PubMed Central

Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M.

2015-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate how Morven, a computational framework which can perform qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of dynamical systems using the same model formalism, is applied to study the osmotic stress response pathway in yeast. First the Morven framework itself is briefly introduced in terms of the model formalism employed and output format. We then built a qualitative model for the biophysical process of the osmoregulation in yeast, and a global qualitative-level picture was obtained through qualitative simulation of this model. Furthermore, we constructed a Morven model based on existing quantitative model of the osmoregulation system. This model was then simulated qualitatively, semi-quantitatively, and quantitatively. The obtained simulation results are presented with an analysis. Finally the future development of the Morven framework for modelling the dynamic biological systems is discussed. PMID:25864377

Rigour in quantitative research.

PubMed

Claydon, Leica Sarah

2015-07-22

This article which forms part of the research series addresses scientific rigour in quantitative research. It explores the basis and use of quantitative research and the nature of scientific rigour. It examines how the reader may determine whether quantitative research results are accurate, the questions that should be asked to determine accuracy and the checklists that may be used in this process. Quantitative research has advantages in nursing, since it can provide numerical data to help answer questions encountered in everyday practice.

Quantitative rock-fall hazard and risk assessment for Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stock, Greg M.; Luco, Nicolas; Collins, Brian D.; Harp, Edwin L.; Reichenbach, Paola; Frankel, Kurt L.

2014-01-01

Rock falls are common in Yosemite Valley, California, posing substantial hazard and risk to the approximately four million annual visitors to Yosemite National Park. Rock falls in Yosemite Valley over the past few decades have damaged structures and caused injuries within developed regions located on or adjacent to talus slopes highlighting the need for additional investigations into rock-fall hazard and risk. This assessment builds upon previous investigations of rock-fall hazard and risk in Yosemite Valley and focuses on hazard and risk to structures posed by relatively frequent fragmental-type rock falls as large as approximately 100,000 (cubic meters) in volume.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Fracture Risk and Risk Factors for Osteoporosis.

PubMed

Schürer, Christian; Wallaschofski, Henri; Nauck, Matthias; Völzke, Henry; Schober, Hans-Christof; Hannemann, Anke

2015-05-25

As the population ages, diseases of the elderly are becoming more common, including osteoporosis. Ways to assess the risk of fracture and the distribution and effects of known risk factors for osteoporosis will be important in planning for future healthcare needs, as well as in the development of preventive strategies. The study population included 6029 men and women aged 20-90 who underwent examination in the second follow-up wave of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-2) or in the basal SHIP-Trend Study. The risk of fracture was estimated on the basis of quantitative ultrasonography of the calcaneus. Prior fractures and risk factors for osteoporosis were ascertained in standardized interviews. 4.6% of the male subjects and 10.6% of the female subjects were judged to have an elevated risk of fracture. The corresponding percentages among subjects over age 65 were 8.8% for men and 28.2% for women. Even among subjects under age 55, risk factors for osteoporosis were associated with lower bone stiffness: the mean stiffness index was 103/98 (men/women) without risk factors, 99/96 with one risk factor, and 93/95 with more than one risk factor. Logistic regression analysis yielded an odds ratio of 1.89 (95% confidence interval: 1.44-2.50; p<0.01) for prevalent fractures among subjects aged 75 and older compared to subjects under age 55. The data indicate a high prevalence of osteoporosis from age 65 onward. These findings are consistent with those of other studies from Germany and across Europe. Younger men and women should already begin taking steps to counteract modifiable risk factors.

How Statisticians Speak Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Redus, K.S.

2007-07-01

The foundation of statistics deals with (a) how to measure and collect data and (b) how to identify models using estimates of statistical parameters derived from the data. Risk is a term used by the statistical community and those that employ statistics to express the results of a statistically based study. Statistical risk is represented as a probability that, for example, a statistical model is sufficient to describe a data set; but, risk is also interpreted as a measure of worth of one alternative when compared to another. The common thread of any risk-based problem is the combination of (a)more » the chance an event will occur, with (b) the value of the event. This paper presents an introduction to, and some examples of, statistical risk-based decision making from a quantitative, visual, and linguistic sense. This should help in understanding areas of radioactive waste management that can be suitably expressed using statistical risk and vice-versa. (authors)« less

Critical Quantitative Inquiry in Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stage, Frances K.; Wells, Ryan S.

2014-01-01

This chapter briefly traces the development of the concept of critical quantitative inquiry, provides an expanded conceptualization of the tasks of critical quantitative research, offers theoretical explanation and justification for critical research using quantitative methods, and previews the work of quantitative criticalists presented in this…

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Correlations between quantitative fat–water magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography in human subcutaneous white adipose tissue

PubMed Central

Gifford, Aliya; Walker, Ronald C.; Towse, Theodore F.; Brian Welch, E.

2015-01-01

Abstract. Beyond estimation of depot volumes, quantitative analysis of adipose tissue properties could improve understanding of how adipose tissue correlates with metabolic risk factors. We investigated whether the fat signal fraction (FSF) derived from quantitative fat–water magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans at 3.0 T correlates to CT Hounsfield units (HU) of the same tissue. These measures were acquired in the subcutaneous white adipose tissue (WAT) at the umbilical level of 21 healthy adult subjects. A moderate correlation exists between MRI- and CT-derived WAT values for all subjects, R2=0.54, p<0.0001, with a slope of −2.6, (95% CI [−3.3,−1.8]), indicating that a decrease of 1 HU equals a mean increase of 0.38% FSF. We demonstrate that FSF estimates obtained using quantitative fat–water MRI techniques correlate with CT HU values in subcutaneous WAT, and therefore, MRI-based FSF could be used as an alternative to CT HU for assessing metabolic risk factors. PMID:26702407

Qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of the osmoregulation system in yeast.

PubMed

Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M

2015-05-01

In this paper we demonstrate how Morven, a computational framework which can perform qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of dynamical systems using the same model formalism, is applied to study the osmotic stress response pathway in yeast. First the Morven framework itself is briefly introduced in terms of the model formalism employed and output format. We then built a qualitative model for the biophysical process of the osmoregulation in yeast, and a global qualitative-level picture was obtained through qualitative simulation of this model. Furthermore, we constructed a Morven model based on existing quantitative model of the osmoregulation system. This model was then simulated qualitatively, semi-quantitatively, and quantitatively. The obtained simulation results are presented with an analysis. Finally the future development of the Morven framework for modelling the dynamic biological systems is discussed. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

PubMed Central

Woolhouse, Mark

2011-01-01

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models. PMID:21624924

Quantitative dispersion microscopy

PubMed Central

Fu, Dan; Choi, Wonshik; Sung, Yongjin; Yaqoob, Zahid; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Feld, Michael

2010-01-01

Refractive index dispersion is an intrinsic optical property and a useful source of contrast in biological imaging studies. In this report, we present the first dispersion phase imaging of living eukaryotic cells. We have developed quantitative dispersion microscopy based on the principle of quantitative phase microscopy. The dual-wavelength quantitative phase microscope makes phase measurements at 310 nm and 400 nm wavelengths to quantify dispersion (refractive index increment ratio) of live cells. The measured dispersion of living HeLa cells is found to be around 1.088, which agrees well with that measured directly for protein solutions using total internal reflection. This technique, together with the dry mass and morphology measurements provided by quantitative phase microscopy, could prove to be a useful tool for distinguishing different types of biomaterials and studying spatial inhomogeneities of biological samples. PMID:21113234

Development of Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways Using Health-Protective Assumptions to Fill Data Gaps

EPA Science Inventory

In an adverse outcome pathway (AOP), the target site dose participates in a molecular initiating event (MIE), which in turn triggers a sequence of key events leading to an adverse outcome (AO). Quantitative AOPs (QAOP) are needed if AOP characterization is to address risk as well...

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

PubMed

Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

2014-03-17

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2015-04-01

The modern society is increasingly dependent on infrastructures to maintain its function, and disruption in one of the infrastructure systems may have severe consequences. The Norwegian municipalities have, according to legislation, a duty to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis and plan and prepare for emergencies in a short- and long term perspective. Vulnerability analysis of the infrastructures and their interdependencies is an important part of this analysis. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. This paper focuses on the second level, which consists of a semi-quantitative analysis. The purpose of this analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures identified in the level 1 analysis and investigate the need for further analyses, i.e. level 3 quantitative analyses. The proposed level 2 analysis considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale. The proposed indicators characterize the robustness of the infrastructure, the importance of the infrastructure as well as interdependencies between society and infrastructure affecting the potential for cascading effects. Each indicator is ranked on a 1-5 scale based on pre-defined ranking criteria. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented, where risk to primary road, water supply and power network threatened by storm

Integrating Professional and Folk Models of HIV Risk: YMSM’s Perceptions of High-Risk Sex

PubMed Central

Kubicek, Katrina; Carpineto, Julie; McDavitt, Bryce; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Au, Chi-Wai; Kerrone, Dustin; Martinez, Miguel; Kipke, Michele D.

2009-01-01

Risks associated with HIV are well documented in research literature. While a great deal has been written about high-risk sex, little research has been conducted to examine how young men who have sex with men (YMSM) perceive and define high-risk sexual behavior. In this study, we compare the “professional’ and “folk” models of HIV-risk based on YMSM’s understanding of high-risk sex and where and how they gathered their understanding of HIV-risk behaviors. The findings reported here emerged from the quantitative and qualitative interviews from the Healthy Young Men’s Study (HYM), a longitudinal study examining risk and protective factors for substance use and sexual risk among an ethnically diverse sample of YMSM. Findings are discussed in relation to framing how service providers and others can increase YMSM’s knowledge of sexual behavior and help them build solid foundations of sexual health education to protect them from STI and HIV infection. PMID:18558819

Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

PubMed Central

Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

1984-01-01

A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

Quantitative PCR measurement of tRNA 2-methylthio modification for assessing type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Xie, Peiyu; Wei, Fan-Yan; Hirata, Shoji; Kaitsuka, Taku; Suzuki, Tsutomu; Suzuki, Takeo; Tomizawa, Kazuhito

2013-11-01

Genetic variants in the human CDKAL1 (CDK5 regulatory subunit associated protein 1-like 1) gene have been associated with reduced insulin secretion and type 2 diabetes (T2D). CDKAL1 is a methylthiotransferase that catalyzes 2-methylthio (ms(2)) modification of the adenine at position 37 (A37) of cytoplasmic tRNA(Lys)(UUU). We investigated the ms(2)-modification level of tRNA(Lys)(UUU) as a direct readout of CDKAL1 enzyme activity in human samples. We developed a quantitative PCR (qPCR)-based method to measure ms(2) modification. tRNA(Lys)(UUU) was reverse-transcribed with 2 unique primers: Reverse primer r1 was designed to anneal to the middle of this tRNA, including the nucleotide at A37, and reverse primer r2 was designed to anneal to the region downstream (3') of A37. Subsequent qPCR was performed to detect the corresponding transcribed cDNAs. The efficiency of reverse transcription of tRNA(Lys)(UUU) was ms(2)-modification dependent. The relative difference in threshold cycle number obtained with the r1 or r2 primer yielded the ms(2)-modification level in tRNA(Lys)(UUU) precisely as predicted by an original mathematical model. The method was capable of measuring ms(2)-modification levels in tRNA(Lys)(UUU) in total RNA isolated from human peripheral blood samples, revealing that the ms(2)-modification rate in tRNA(Lys)(UUU) was decreased in individuals carrying the CDKAL1 genotype associated with T2D. In addition, the ms(2)-modification level was correlated with insulin secretion. The results point to the critical role of ms(2) modification in T2D and to a potential clinical use of a simple and high-throughput method for assessing T2D risk.

Anticipated health behaviour changes and perceived control in response to disclosure of genetic risk of breast and ovarian cancer: a quantitative survey study among women in the UK

PubMed Central

Meisel, Susanne F; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Hann, Katie E J; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne

2017-01-01

Background Genetic risk assessment for breast cancer and ovarian cancer (BCOC) is expected to make major inroads into mainstream clinical practice. It is important to evaluate the potential impact on women ahead of its implementation in order to maximise health benefits, as predictive genetic testing without adequate support could lead to adverse psychological and behavioural responses to risk disclosure. Objective To examine anticipated health behaviour changes and perceived control to disclosure of genetic risk for BCOC and establish demographic and person-specific correlates of adverse anticipated responses in a population-based sample of women. Design Cross-sectional quantitative survey study carried out by the UK Office for National Statistics in January and March 2014. Setting Face-to-face computer-assisted interviews conducted by trained researchers in participants’ homes. Participants 837 women randomly chosen from households across the UK identified from the Royal Mail’s Postcode Address File. Outcome measures Anticipated health behaviour change and perceived control to disclosure of BCOC risk. Results In response to a genetic test result, most women (72%) indicated ‘I would try harder to have a healthy lifestyle’, and over half (55%) felt ‘it would give me more control over my life’. These associations were independent of demographic factors or perceived risk of BCOC in Bonferroni-corrected multivariate analyses. However, a minority of women (14%) felt ‘it isn’t worth making lifestyle changes’ and that ‘I would feel less free to make choices in my life’ (16%) in response to BCOC risk disclosure. The former belief was more likely to be held by women who were educated below university degree level (P<0.001) after adjusting for other demographic and person-specific correlates. Conclusion These findings indicate that women in the UK largely anticipate that they would engage in positive health behaviour changes in response to BCOC risk

Considerations in deriving quantitative cancer criteria for inorganic arsenic exposure via inhalation.

PubMed

Lewis, Ari S; Beyer, Leslie A; Zu, Ke

2015-01-01

The inhalation unit risk (IUR) that currently exists in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System was developed in 1984 based on studies examining the relationship between respiratory cancer and arsenic exposure in copper smelters from two US locations: the copper smelter in Anaconda, Montana, and the American Smelting And Refining COmpany (ASARCO) smelter in Tacoma, Washington. Since US EPA last conducted its assessment, additional data have become available from epidemiology and mechanistic studies. In addition, the California Air Resources Board, Texas Commission of Environmental Quality, and Dutch Expert Committee on Occupational Safety have all conducted new risk assessments. All three analyses, which calculated IURs based on respiratory/lung cancer mortality, generated IURs that are lower (i.e., less restrictive) than the current US EPA value of 4.3×10(-3) (μg/m(3))(-1). The IURs developed by these agencies, which vary more than 20-fold, are based on somewhat different studies and use different methodologies to address uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Despite these differences, all were developed based on a cumulative exposure metric assuming a low-dose linear dose-response relationship. In this paper, we contrast and compare the analyses conducted by these agencies and critically evaluate strengths and limitations inherent in the data and methodologies used to develop quantitative risk estimates. In addition, we consider how these data could be best used to assess risk at much lower levels of arsenic in air, such as those experienced by the general public. Given that the mode of action for arsenic supports a threshold effect, and epidemiological evidence suggests that the arsenic concentration in air is a reliable predictor of lung/respiratory cancer risk, we developed a quantitative cancer risk analysis using a nonlinear threshold model. Applying a nonlinear model to occupational data, we

Quantitative Assessment of the Safety Benefits Associated with Increasing Clinical Peanut Thresholds Through Immunotherapy.

PubMed

Baumert, Joseph L; Taylor, Steve L; Koppelman, Stef J

Peanut immunotherapy studies are conducted with the aim to decrease the sensitivity of patients to peanut exposure with the outcome evaluated by testing the threshold for allergic response in a double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge. The clinical relevance of increasing this threshold is not well characterized. We aimed to quantify the clinical benefit of an increased threshold for peanut-allergic patients. Quantitative risk assessment was performed by matching modeled exposure to peanut protein with individual threshold levels. Exposure was modeled by pairing US consumption data for various food product categories with potential contamination levels of peanut that have been demonstrated to be present on occasion in such food products. Cookies, ice cream, doughnuts/snack cakes, and snack chip mixes were considered in the risk assessment. Increasing the baseline threshold before immunotherapy from 100 mg or less peanut protein to 300 mg peanut protein postimmunotherapy reduces the risk of experiencing an allergic reaction by more than 95% for all 4 food product categories that may contain trace levels of peanut residue. Further increase in the threshold to 1000 mg of peanut protein had an additional quantitative benefit in risk reduction for all patients reacting to 300 mg or less at baseline. We conclude that achieving thresholds of 300 mg and 1000 mg of peanut protein by peanut immunotherapy is clinically relevant, and that the risk for peanut-allergic patients who have achieved this increased threshold to experience an allergic reaction is reduced in a clinically meaningful way. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multifactorial disease risk calculator: Risk prediction for multifactorial disease pedigrees.

PubMed

Campbell, Desmond D; Li, Yiming; Sham, Pak C

2018-03-01

Construction of multifactorial disease models from epidemiological findings and their application to disease pedigrees for risk prediction is nontrivial for all but the simplest of cases. Multifactorial Disease Risk Calculator is a web tool facilitating this. It provides a user-friendly interface, extending a reported methodology based on a liability-threshold model. Multifactorial disease models incorporating all the following features in combination are handled: quantitative risk factors (including polygenic scores), categorical risk factors (including major genetic risk loci), stratified age of onset curves, and the partition of the population variance in disease liability into genetic, shared, and unique environment effects. It allows the application of such models to disease pedigrees. Pedigree-related outputs are (i) individual disease risk for pedigree members, (ii) n year risk for unaffected pedigree members, and (iii) the disease pedigree's joint liability distribution. Risk prediction for each pedigree member is based on using the constructed disease model to appropriately weigh evidence on disease risk available from personal attributes and family history. Evidence is used to construct the disease pedigree's joint liability distribution. From this, lifetime and n year risk can be predicted. Example disease models and pedigrees are provided at the website and are used in accompanying tutorials to illustrate the features available. The website is built on an R package which provides the functionality for pedigree validation, disease model construction, and risk prediction. Website: http://grass.cgs.hku.hk:3838/mdrc/current. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.