The Positive Alternative Credit Experience (PACE) Program a Quantitative Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warren, Rebecca Anne

2011-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative comparative study was to evaluate the Positive Alternative Credit Experience (PACE) Program using an objectives-oriented approach to a formative program evaluation. The PACE Program was a semester-long high school alternative education program designed to serve students at-risk for academic failure or dropping out…

An assessment of the risk of foreign animal disease introduction into the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships.

PubMed

McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Fite, R W; Miller, L

1993-12-01

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

PubMed

Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

2009-03-15

This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.

Hygiene Fast Facts: Information on Water-Related Hygiene

MedlinePlus

... V. Handwashing and risk of respiratory infections: a quantitative systematic review. Trop Med Int Health. 2006;11( ... Shih P, Pillai SP, Cooper JA, Quayed EA. Quantitative evaluation of bacteria released by bathers in a ...

Approaches to acceptable risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whipple, C

Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, inmore » a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.« less

QUANTITATIVE PROCEDURES FOR NEUROTOXICOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

In this project, previously published information on biologically based dose-response model for brain development was used to quantitatively evaluate critical neurodevelopmental processes, and to assess potential chemical impacts on early brain development. This model has been ex...

EVALUATION OF PHYSIOLOGY COMPUTER MODELS, AND THE FEASIBILITY OF THEIR USE IN RISK ASSESSMENT.

EPA Science Inventory

This project will evaluate the current state of quantitative models that simulate physiological processes, and the how these models might be used in conjunction with the current use of PBPK and BBDR models in risk assessment. The work will include a literature search to identify...

Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

2016-04-01

Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

76 FR 63308 - Data and Data Needs To Advance Risk Assessment for Emerging Infectious Diseases Relevant to Blood...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-12

... Biologics Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, Suite 200N... Person) at least 7 days in advance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are... and maintaining critical relationships both within the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research...

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Application of quantitative microbial risk assessments for estimation of risk management metrics: Clostridium perfringens in ready-to-eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products as an example.

PubMed

Crouch, Edmund A; Labarre, David; Golden, Neal J; Kause, Janell R; Dearfield, Kerry L

2009-10-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service is exploring quantitative risk assessment methodologies to incorporate the use of the Codex Alimentarius' newly adopted risk management metrics (e.g., food safety objectives and performance objectives). It is suggested that use of these metrics would more closely tie the results of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to public health outcomes. By estimating the food safety objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption) and the performance objective (the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at a specified step in the food chain before the time of consumption), risk managers will have a better understanding of the appropriate level of protection (ALOP) from microbial hazards for public health protection. We here demonstrate a general methodology that allows identification of an ALOP and evaluation of corresponding metrics at appropriate points in the food chain. It requires a two-dimensional probabilistic risk assessment, the example used being the Monte Carlo QMRA for Clostridium perfringens in ready-to eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products, with minor modifications to evaluate and abstract required measures. For demonstration purposes, the QMRA model was applied specifically to hot dogs produced and consumed in the United States. Evaluation of the cumulative uncertainty distribution for illness rate allows a specification of an ALOP that, with defined confidence, corresponds to current industry practices.

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Risk Evaluation of Bogie System Based on Extension Theory and Entropy Weight Method

PubMed Central

Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

2014-01-01

A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly. PMID:25574159

Risk evaluation of bogie system based on extension theory and entropy weight method.

PubMed

Du, Yanping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhao, Xiaogang; Wang, Xiaohui

2014-01-01

A bogie system is the key equipment of railway vehicles. Rigorous practical evaluation of bogies is still a challenge. Presently, there is overreliance on part-specific experiments in practice. In the present work, a risk evaluation index system of a bogie system has been established based on the inspection data and experts' evaluation. Then, considering quantitative and qualitative aspects, the risk state of a bogie system has been evaluated using an extension theory and an entropy weight method. Finally, the method has been used to assess the bogie system of four different samples. Results show that this method can assess the risk state of a bogie system exactly.

Quantitative analysis of visible surface defect risk in tablets during film coating using terahertz pulsed imaging.

PubMed

Niwa, Masahiro; Hiraishi, Yasuhiro

2014-01-30

Tablets are the most common form of solid oral dosage produced by pharmaceutical industries. There are several challenges to successful and consistent tablet manufacturing. One well-known quality issue is visible surface defects, which generally occur due to insufficient physical strength, causing breakage or abrasion during processing, packaging, or shipping. Techniques that allow quantitative evaluation of surface strength and the risk of surface defect would greatly aid in quality control. Here terahertz pulsed imaging (TPI) was employed to evaluate the surface properties of core tablets with visible surface defects of varying severity after film coating. Other analytical methods, such as tensile strength measurements, friability testing, and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), were used to validate TPI results. Tensile strength and friability provided no information on visible surface defect risk, whereas the TPI-derived unique parameter terahertz electric field peak strength (TEFPS) provided spatial distribution of surface density/roughness information on core tablets, which helped in estimating tablet abrasion risk prior to film coating and predicting the location of the defects. TPI also revealed the relationship between surface strength and blending condition and is a nondestructive, quantitative approach to aid formulation development and quality control that can reduce visible surface defect risk in tablets. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention.

PubMed

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2010-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 x 10(-8) (95th percentile: 3.20 x 10(-7)). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures.

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Evaluating variability and uncertainty separately in microbial quantitative risk assessment using two R packages.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Delignette-Muller, Marie Laure

2010-09-01

Quantitative risk assessment has emerged as a valuable tool to enhance the scientific basis of regulatory decisions in the food safety domain. This article introduces the use of two new computing resources (R packages) specifically developed to help risk assessors in their projects. The first package, "fitdistrplus", gathers tools for choosing and fitting a parametric univariate distribution to a given dataset. The data may be continuous or discrete. Continuous data may be right-, left- or interval-censored as is frequently obtained with analytical methods, with the possibility of various censoring thresholds within the dataset. Bootstrap procedures then allow the assessor to evaluate and model the uncertainty around the parameters and to transfer this information into a quantitative risk assessment model. The second package, "mc2d", helps to build and study two dimensional (or second-order) Monte-Carlo simulations in which the estimation of variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is separated. This package easily allows the transfer of separated variability and uncertainty along a chain of conditional mathematical and probabilistic models. The usefulness of these packages is illustrated through a risk assessment of hemolytic and uremic syndrome in children linked to the presence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. These R packages are freely available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (cran.r-project.org). Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

76 FR 37620 - Risk-Based Capital Standards: Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework-Basel II; Establishment of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-28

... systems. E. Quantitative Methods for Comparing Capital Frameworks The NPR sought comment on how the... industry while assessing levels of capital. This commenter points out maintaining reliable comparative data over time could make quantitative methods for this purpose difficult. For example, evaluating asset...

A quantitative benefit-risk assessment approach to improve decision making in drug development: Application of a multicriteria decision analysis model in the development of combination therapy for overactive bladder.

PubMed

de Greef-van der Sandt, I; Newgreen, D; Schaddelee, M; Dorrepaal, C; Martina, R; Ridder, A; van Maanen, R

2016-04-01

A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach was developed and used to estimate the benefit-risk of solifenacin and mirabegron and their combination in the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB). The objectives were 1) to develop an MCDA tool to compare drug effects in OAB quantitatively, 2) to establish transparency in the evaluation of the benefit-risk profile of various dose combinations, and 3) to quantify the added value of combination use compared to monotherapies. The MCDA model was developed using efficacy, safety, and tolerability attributes and the results of a phase II factorial design combination study were evaluated. Combinations of solifenacin 5 mg and mirabegron 25 mg and mirabegron 50 (5+25 and 5+50) scored the highest clinical utility and supported combination therapy development of solifenacin and mirabegron for phase III clinical development at these dose regimens. This case study underlines the benefit of using a quantitative approach in clinical drug development programs. © 2015 The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.

PubMed

Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A

2002-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.

A quantitative risk-assessment system (QR-AS) evaluating operation safety of Organic Rankine Cycle using flammable mixture working fluid.

PubMed

Tian, Hua; Wang, Xueying; Shu, Gequn; Wu, Mingqiang; Yan, Nanhua; Ma, Xiaonan

2017-09-15

Mixture of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide shows excellent cycle performance in Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) used for engine waste heat recovery, but the unavoidable leakage in practical application is a threat for safety due to its flammability. In this work, a quantitative risk assessment system (QR-AS) is established aiming at providing a general method of risk assessment for flammable working fluid leakage. The QR-AS covers three main aspects: analysis of concentration distribution based on CFD simulations, explosive risk assessment based on the TNT equivalent method and risk mitigation based on evaluation results. A typical case of propane/carbon dioxide mixture leaking from ORC is investigated to illustrate the application of QR-AS. According to the assessment results, proper ventilation speed, safe mixture ratio and location of gas-detecting devices have been proposed to guarantee the security in case of leakage. The results revealed that this presented QR-AS was reliable for the practical application and the evaluation results could provide valuable guidance for the design of mitigation measures to improve the safe performance of ORC system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

PubMed

Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

2017-11-01

Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment model for evaluating environmental threat posed by the three first EU watch-list pharmaceuticals to urban wastewater treatment plants: An Irish case study.

PubMed

Tahar, Alexandre; Tiedeken, Erin Jo; Clifford, Eoghan; Cummins, Enda; Rowan, Neil

2017-12-15

Contamination of receiving waters with pharmaceutical compounds is of pressing concern. This constitutes the first study to report on the development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment (RA) model for evaluating the environmental threat posed by three EU watch list pharmaceutical compounds namely, diclofenac, 17-beta-estradiol and 17-alpha-ethinylestradiol, to aquatic ecosystems using Irish data as a case study. This RA model adopts the Irish Environmental Protection Agency Source-Pathway-Receptor concept to define relevant parameters for calculating low, medium or high risk score for each agglomeration of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP), which include catchment, treatments, operational and management factors. This RA model may potentially be used on a national scale to (i) identify WWTPs that pose a particular risk as regards releasing disproportionally high levels of these pharmaceutical compounds, and (ii) help identify priority locations for introducing or upgrading control measures (e.g. tertiary treatment, source reduction). To assess risks for these substances of emerging concern, the model was applied to 16 urban WWTPs located in different regions in Ireland that were scored for the three different compounds and ranked as low, medium or high risk. As a validation proxy, this case study used limited monitoring data recorded at some these plants receiving waters. It is envisaged that this semi-quantitative RA approach may aid other EU countries investigate and screen for potential risks where limited measured or predicted environmental pollutant concentrations and/or hydrological data are available. This model is semi-quantitative, as other factors such as influence of climate change and drug usage or prescription data will need to be considered in a future point for estimating and predicting risks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of microbial source tracking markers in recreational water contaminated with fresh untreated and secondary treated sewage.

PubMed

Ahmed, Warish; Hamilton, Kerry A; Lobos, Aldo; Hughes, Bridie; Staley, Christopher; Sadowsky, Michael J; Harwood, Valerie J

2018-05-14

Microbial source tracking (MST) methods have provided the means to identify sewage contamination in recreational waters, but the risk associated with elevated levels of MST targets such as sewage-associated Bacteroides HF183 and other markers is uncertain. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) modeling allows interpretation of MST data in the context of the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness caused by exposure to known reference pathogens. In this study, five sewage-associated, quantitative PCR (qPCR) MST markers [Bacteroides HF183 (HF183), Methanobrevibacter smithii nifH (nifH), human adenovirus (HAdV), human polyomavirus (HPyV) and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV)] were evaluated to determine at what concentration these nucleic acid markers reflected a significant health risk from exposure to fresh untreated or secondary treated sewage in beach water. The QMRA models were evaluated for a target probability of illness of 36 GI illnesses/1000 swimming events (i.e., risk benchmark 0.036) for the reference pathogens norovirus (NoV) and human adenovirus 40/41 (HAdV 40/41). Sewage markers at several dilutions exceeded the risk benchmark for reference pathogens NoV and HAdV 40/41. HF183 concentrations 3.22 × 10 3 (for both NoV and HAdV 40/41) gene copies (GC)/100 mL of water contaminated with fresh untreated sewage represented risk >0.036. Similarly, HF183 concentrations 3.66 × 10 3 (for NoV and HAdV 40/41) GC/100 mL of water contaminated with secondary treated sewage represented risk >0.036. HAdV concentration as low as 4.11 × 10 1 GC/100 mL of water represented risk >0.036 when water was contaminated with secondary treated sewage. Results of this study provide a valuable context for water quality managers to evaluate human health risks associated with contamination from fresh sewage. The approach described here may also be useful in the future for evaluating health risks from contamination with aged or treated sewage or feces from other animal sources as more data are made available. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating a multi-criteria model for hazard assessment in urban design. The Porto Marghera case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luria, Paolo; Aspinall, Peter A

2003-08-01

The aim of this paper is to describe a new approach to major industrial hazard assessment, which has been recently studied by the authors in conjunction with the Italian Environmental Protection Agency ('ARPAV'). The real opportunity for developing a different approach arose from the need of the Italian EPA to provide the Venice Port Authority with an appropriate estimation of major industrial hazards in Porto Marghera, an industrial estate near Venice (Italy). However, the standard model, the quantitative risk analysis (QRA), only provided a list of individual quantitative risk values, related to single locations. The experimental model is based onmore » a multi-criteria approach--the Analytic Hierarchy Process--which introduces the use of expert opinions, complementary skills and expertise from different disciplines in conjunction with quantitative traditional analysis. This permitted the generation of quantitative data on risk assessment from a series of qualitative assessments, on the present situation and on three other future scenarios, and use of this information as indirect quantitative measures, which could be aggregated for obtaining the global risk rate. This approach is in line with the main concepts proposed by the last European directive on Major Hazard Accidents, which recommends increasing the participation of operators, taking the other players into account and, moreover, paying more attention to the concepts of 'urban control', 'subjective risk' (risk perception) and intangible factors (factors not directly quantifiable)« less

76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention

PubMed Central

Weng, Hsin-Yi; Wu, Pei-I; Yang, Ping-Cheng; Tsai, Yi-Lun; Chang, Chao-Chin

2009-01-01

Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies emergence. This study developed a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate whether border control measures could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and dogs using Taiwan as an example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The impacts of reduced quarantine and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan’s current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies introduction through legal importation of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current border control measures and enter Taiwan was 5.33 × 10−8 (95th percentile: 3.20 × 10−7). However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting period would affect the risk differently, depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination coverage, enforced custom checking, and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the estimated risk under the assumed alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing quarantine, the consequences of rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free area. Therefore, a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these alternative measures. PMID:19822125

Spacecraft Complexity Subfactors and Implications on Future Cost Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leising, Charles J.; Wessen, Randii; Ellyin, Ray; Rosenberg, Leigh; Leising, Adam

2013-01-01

During the last ten years the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has used a set of cost-risk subfactors to independently estimate the magnitude of development risks that may not be covered in the high level cost models employed during early concept development. Within the last several years the Laboratory has also developed a scale of Concept Maturity Levels with associated criteria to quantitatively assess a concept's maturity. This latter effort has been helpful in determining whether a concept is mature enough for accurate costing but it does not provide any quantitative estimate of cost risk. Unfortunately today's missions are significantly more complex than when the original cost-risk subfactors were first formulated. Risks associated with complex missions are not being adequately evaluated and future cost growth is being underestimated. The risk subfactor process needed to be updated.

Manned Versus Unmanned Risk and Complexity Considerations for Future Midsized X-Planes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lechniak, Jason A.; Melton, John E.

2017-01-01

The objective of this work was to identify and estimate complexity and risks associated with the development and testing of new low-cost medium-scale X-plane aircraft primarily focused on air transport operations. Piloting modes that were evaluated for this task were manned, remotely piloted, and unmanned flight research programs. This analysis was conducted early in the data collection period for X-plane concept vehicles before preliminary designs were complete. Over 50 different aircraft and system topics were used to evaluate the three piloting control modes. Expert group evaluations from a diverse set of pilots, engineers, and other experts at Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate centers within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration provided qualitative reasoning on the many issues surrounding the decisions regarding piloting modes. The group evaluations were numerically rated to evaluate each topic quantitatively and were used to provide independent criteria for vehicle complexity and risk. An Edwards Air Force Base instruction document was identified that emerged as a source of the effects found in our qualitative and quantitative data. The study showed that a manned aircraft was the best choice to align with test activities for transport aircraft flight research from a low-complexity and low-risk perspective. The study concluded that a manned aircraft option would minimize the risk and complexity to improve flight-test efficiency and bound the cost of the flight-test portion of the program. Several key findings and discriminators between the three modes are discussed in detail.

The Application of a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique Used for Expendable Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latimer, John A.

2009-01-01

This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.

Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya.

PubMed

Rideout, Alasdair J R; Joshi, Neha P; Viergever, Karin M; Huxham, Mark; Briers, Robert A

2013-11-01

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

PubMed

Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

2005-05-01

Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

Effects of personalized colorectal cancer risk information on laypersons' interest in colorectal cancer screening: The importance of individual differences.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Duarte, Christine W; Daggett, Susannah; Siewers, Andrea; Killam, Bill; Smith, Kahsi A; Freedman, Andrew N

2015-10-01

To evaluate how personalized quantitative colorectal cancer (CRC) risk information affects laypersons' interest in CRC screening, and to explore factors influencing these effects. An online pre-post experiment was conducted in which a convenience sample (N=578) of laypersons, aged >50, were provided quantitative personalized estimates of lifetime CRC risk, calculated by the National Cancer Institute Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT). Self-reported interest in CRC screening was measured immediately before and after CCRAT use; sociodemographic characteristics and prior CRC screening history were also assessed. Multivariable analyses assessed participants' change in interest in screening, and subgroup differences in this change. Personalized CRC risk information had no overall effect on CRC screening interest, but significant subgroup differences were observed. Change in screening interest was greater among individuals with recent screening (p=.015), higher model-estimated cancer risk (p=.0002), and lower baseline interest (p<.0001), with individuals at highest baseline interest demonstrating negative (not neutral) change in interest. Effects of quantitative personalized CRC risk information on laypersons' interest in CRC screening differ among individuals depending on prior screening history, estimated cancer risk, and baseline screening interest. Personalized cancer risk information has personalized effects-increasing and decreasing screening interest in different individuals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

PubMed

Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

2018-06-05

Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p < 0.007 for both operators). Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p < 0.0001, for each paired combination of two operators and two radiologists). Interoperator and intraoperator agreement in the quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative measurement of BPU, defined as the ratio of average counts in fibroglandular tissue relative to that in fat, can be reliably performed by nonradiologist operators with a simple region-of-interest analysis tool. Similar to results obtained with subjective BPU categories, quantitative BPU is a functional imaging biomarker of breast cancer risk, independent of mammographic density and hormonal factors.

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the following formal definition of risk is proposed: the probability of occurrence, in a given period of time, of an adverse health effect as a consequence of the existence of an hazard. In formula: R(d[symbol: see text]p) = Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) x Pr(d[symbol: see text]e). While Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) (exposure given hazard) must be evaluated in the situation under study, two alternatives exist for the estimation of the occurrence of adverse health effects (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)): a "direct" estimation of the damage (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) through formal epidemiologic studies conducted in the situation under observation; and an "indirect" estimation of Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) using information taken from the scientific literature (epidemiologic evaluations, dose-response relationships, extrapolations, ...). Both conditions are presented along with their respective advantages, disadvantages, and uncertainties. The usefulness of the proposed algorithm is discussed with respect to commonly used applications of risk assessment in occupational medicine; the relevance of time for risk estimation (both in the term of duration of observation, duration of exposure, and latency of effect) is briefly explained; and how the proposed algorithm takes into account (in terms of prevention and public health) both the etiologic relevance of the exposure and the consequences of exposure removal is highlighted. As a last comment, it is suggested that the diffuse application of good work practices (technical, behavioral, organizational, ...), or the exhaustive use of check lists, can be relevant in terms of improvement of prevention efficacy, but does not represent any quantitative procedure of risk assessment which, in any circumstance, must be considered the elective approach to adverse health effect prevention.

Communicating radon risk effectively: a mid-course evaluation. Interim report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, V.K.; Desvousges, W.H.; Fisher, A.

A panel of 2300 homeowners was divided into subgroups to test the effectiveness of six alternative ways of explaining the risk from naturally occurring radon gas. The research design focused on two dimensions: qualitative vs. quantitative and directive vs. evaluative. These characteristics led to 4 experimental booklets, which were compared with EPA's Citizen's Guide and a one-page fact sheet. The evaluation examined how much people learned about radon; whether they could form risk perceptions consistent with their home's measured radon level; and whether they felt they had enough information to make a decision about mitigation. The fact sheet did notmore » perform well on any of these evaluation criteria. None of the five booklets clearly was best for all 3 evaluation criteria; the report discusses the implications for designing an effective radon-risk communication program.« less

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.

PubMed

Kerestecioğlu, Merih

2016-09-01

The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow. © The Author(s) 2016.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Nicholas, Austin; Alibay, Farah; Parrish, Joseph

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

PubMed Central

Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

2015-01-01

Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides

PubMed Central

Kniss, Andrew R.; Coburn, Carl W.

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman’s rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact. PMID:26121252

Quantitative Evaluation of the Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) for Comparing Herbicides.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Coburn, Carl W

2015-01-01

Various indicators of pesticide environmental risk have been proposed, and one of the most widely known and used is the environmental impact quotient (EIQ). The EIQ has been criticized by others in the past, but it continues to be used regularly in the weed science literature. The EIQ is typically considered an improvement over simply comparing the amount of herbicides applied by weight. Herbicides are treated differently compared to other pesticide groups when calculating the EIQ, and therefore, it is important to understand how different risk factors affect the EIQ for herbicides. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the EIQ as an environmental indicator for herbicides. Simulation analysis was conducted to quantify relative sensitivity of the EIQ to changes in risk factors, and actual herbicide EIQ values were used to quantify the impact of herbicide application rate on the EIQ Field Use Rating. Herbicide use rate was highly correlated with the EIQ Field Use Rating (Spearman's rho >0.96, P-value <0.001) for two herbicide datasets. Two important risk factors for herbicides, leaching and surface runoff potential, are included in the EIQ calculation but explain less than 1% of total variation in the EIQ. Plant surface half-life was the risk factor with the greatest relative influence on herbicide EIQ, explaining 26 to 28% of the total variation in EIQ for actual and simulated EIQ values, respectively. For herbicides, the plant surface half-life risk factor is assigned values without any supporting quantitative data, and can result in EIQ estimates that are contrary to quantitative risk estimates for some herbicides. In its current form, the EIQ is a poor measure of herbicide environmental impact.

Risk in Enterprise Cloud Computing: Re-Evaluated

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Funmilayo, Bolonduro, R.

2016-01-01

A quantitative study was conducted to get the perspectives of IT experts about risks in enterprise cloud computing. In businesses, these IT experts are often not in positions to prioritize business needs. The business experts commonly known as business managers mostly determine an organization's business needs. Even if an IT expert classified a…

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.

PubMed

Brouwer, Andrew F; Masters, Nina B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2018-04-20

Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Risk Assessment Methodology for Software Supportability (RAMSS): guidelines for Adapting Software Supportability Evaluations

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-04-14

CONCIPT DIFINITION OIVILOPMINTITIST I OPERATION ANO ■ MAINTENANCE ■ TRACK MOifCTIO PROGRAMS • «VIIW CRITICAL ISSUIS . Mt PARI INPUTS TO PMO...development and beyond, evaluation criteria must Include quantitative goals (the desired value) and thresholds (the value beyond which the charac

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish amore » lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.« less

Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

PubMed

Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

2014-01-01

The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

PubMed

Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

2018-02-01

Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation and evaluation of management options to control and/or reduce the risk of not complying with commercial sterility.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-11-20

In a previous study, a modular process risk model, from the raw material reception to the final product storage, was built to estimate the risk of a UHT-aseptic line of not complying with commercial sterility (Pujol et al., 2015). This present study was focused on demonstrating how the model (updated version with uncertainty and variability separated and 2(nd) order Monte Carlo procedure run) could be used to assess quantitatively the influence of management options. This assessment was done in three steps: pinpoint which process step had the highest influence on the risk, identify which management option(s) could be the most effective to control and/or reduce the risk, and finally evaluate quantitatively the influence of changing process setting(s) on the risk. For Bacillus cereus, it was identified that during post-process storage in an aseptic tank, there was potentially an air re-contamination due to filter efficiency loss (efficiency loss due to successive in-place sterilizations after cleaning operations), followed by B. cereus growth. Two options were then evaluated: i) reducing by one fifth of the number of filter sterilizations before renewing the filters, ii) designing new UHT-aseptic lines without an aseptic tank, i.e. without a storage period after the thermal process and before filling. Considering the uncertainty in the model, it was not possible to confirm whether these options had a significant influence on the risk associated with B. cereus. On the other hand, for Geobacillus stearothermophilus, combinations of heat-treatment time and temperature enabling the control or reduction in risk by a factor of ca. 100 were determined; for ease of operational implementation, they were presented graphically in the form of iso-risk curves. For instance, it was established that a heat treatment of 138°C for 31s (instead of 138°C for 25s) enabled a reduction in risk to 18×10(-8) (95% CI=[10; 34]×10(-8)), instead of 578×10(-8) (95% CI=[429; 754]×10(-8)) initially. In conclusion, a modular risk model, as the one exemplified here with a UHT-aseptic line, is a valuable tool in process design and operation, bringing definitive quantitative elements into the decision making process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Risk Communication After the Fukushima Disaster Based on Nudge Theory.

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Tsubokura, Masaharu

2017-03-01

Using nudge theory and some examples of risk communication that followed the Fukushima disaster, this article discusses the influences and justifications of risk communication, in addition to how risk communication systems are designed. To assist people in making decisions based on their own value systems, we provide three suggestions, keeping in mind that people can be influenced (ie, "nudged") depending on how risk communication takes place: (1) accumulate knowledge on the process of evaluating how the method of risk communication and a system's default design could impact people; (2) clarify the purpose and outcomes of risk communication; and (3) see what risk communication might be ethically unjustifiable. Quantitative studies on risk communication and collective narratives will provide some ideas for how to design better risk communication systems and to help people make decisions. Furthermore, we have shown examples of unjustifiable risk communication.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

PubMed

Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

2017-02-01

Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

[Clinical research XXIII. From clinical judgment to meta-analyses].

PubMed

Rivas-Ruiz, Rodolfo; Castelán-Martínez, Osvaldo D; Pérez-Rodríguez, Marcela; Palacios-Cruz, Lino; Noyola-Castillo, Maura E; Talavera, Juan O

2014-01-01

Systematic reviews (SR) are studies made in order to ask clinical questions based on original articles. Meta-analysis (MTA) is the mathematical analysis of SR. These analyses are divided in two groups, those which evaluate the measured results of quantitative variables (for example, the body mass index -BMI-) and those which evaluate qualitative variables (for example, if a patient is alive or dead, or if he is healing or not). Quantitative variables generally use the mean difference analysis and qualitative variables can be performed using several calculations: odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio (HR). These analyses are represented through forest plots which allow the evaluation of each individual study, as well as the heterogeneity between studies and the overall effect of the intervention. These analyses are mainly based on Student's t test and chi-squared. To take appropriate decisions based on the MTA, it is important to understand the characteristics of statistical methods in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Evaluating the role of landscape in the spread of invasive species: the case of the biomass crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the development and cultivation of new bioeconomy crops and in particular biofuel feedstocks expands there is a pressing need for objective and quantitative methods to evaluate risks and benefits of their production. In particular, the traits being selected for in biofuel crops are highly aligned...

Methodology for Evaluating an Adaptation of Evidence-Based Drug Abuse Prevention in Alternative Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hopson, Laura M.; Steiker, Lori K. H.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this article is to set forth an innovative methodological protocol for culturally grounding interventions with high-risk youths in alternative schools. This study used mixed methods to evaluate original and adapted versions of a culturally grounded substance abuse prevention program. The qualitative and quantitative methods…

Process Evaluation of a Parenting Program for Low-Income Families in South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lachman, Jamie M.; Kelly, Jane; Cluver, Lucie; Ward, Catherine L.; Hutchings, Judy; Gardner, Frances

2018-01-01

Objective: This mixed-methods process evaluation examined the feasibility of a parenting program delivered by community facilitators to reduce the risk of child maltreatment in low-income families with children aged 3-8 years in Cape Town, South Africa (N = 68). Method: Quantitative measures included attendance registers, fidelity checklists,…

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

A revised estimate of the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, P.S.; Gregg, E.C.

A considerable amount of concern has been felt recently for the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients. This paper re-evaluates risk in quantitative terms by using some data measured by us and other data recently published in the literature. The risks are considerably smaller than had been estimated earlier. Compared with the natural incidence of cancer in the general population, the cumulative additional risk for scoliosis patients varies from 0.2% for breast carcinoma to 5% for leukemia.

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population

PubMed Central

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Objective: Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic’s Food and Drug Administration–approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Methods: Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR’s BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density–based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. Results: The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Conclusions: Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase. PMID:29511356

Evaluation of Quantra Hologic Volumetric Computerized Breast Density Software in Comparison With Manual Interpretation in a Diverse Population.

PubMed

Richard-Davis, Gloria; Whittemore, Brianna; Disher, Anthony; Rice, Valerie Montgomery; Lenin, Rathinasamy B; Dollins, Camille; Siegel, Eric R; Eswaran, Hari

2018-01-01

Increased mammographic breast density is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer development, regardless of age or ethnic background. The current gold standard for categorizing breast density consists of a radiologist estimation of percent density according to the American College of Radiology (ACR) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) criteria. This study compares paired qualitative interpretations of breast density on digital mammograms with quantitative measurement of density using Hologic's Food and Drug Administration-approved R2 Quantra volumetric breast density assessment tool. Our goal was to find the best cutoff value of Quantra-calculated breast density for stratifying patients accurately into high-risk and low-risk breast density categories. Screening digital mammograms from 385 subjects, aged 18 to 64 years, were evaluated. These mammograms were interpreted by a radiologist using the ACR's BI-RADS density method, and had quantitative density measured using the R2 Quantra breast density assessment tool. The appropriate cutoff for breast density-based risk stratification using Quantra software was calculated using manually determined BI-RADS scores as a gold standard, in which scores of D3/D4 denoted high-risk densities and D1/D2 denoted low-risk densities. The best cutoff value for risk stratification using Quantra-calculated breast density was found to be 14.0%, yielding a sensitivity of 65%, specificity of 77%, and positive and negative predictive values of 75% and 69%, respectively. Under bootstrap analysis, the best cutoff value had a mean ± SD of 13.70% ± 0.89%. Our study is the first to publish on a North American population that assesses the accuracy of the R2 Quantra system at breast density stratification. Quantitative breast density measures will improve accuracy and reliability of density determination, assisting future researchers to accurately calculate breast cancer risks associated with density increase.

Evaluation of Math Block-Scheduling for Low Performing At-Risk and Economically-Disadvantaged Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trice, Toni M.

2017-01-01

Research shows a math achievement gap for at-risk and economically-disadvantaged students in the United States. To address this issue, a Texas school district implemented a 90-minute math block-scheduling program with 8th grade students. Shaped by the academic learning time and social justice theories, the purpose of this quantitative program…

Development of risk-based nanomaterial groups for occupational exposure control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuempel, E. D.; Castranova, V.; Geraci, C. L.; Schulte, P. A.

2012-09-01

Given the almost limitless variety of nanomaterials, it will be virtually impossible to assess the possible occupational health hazard of each nanomaterial individually. The development of science-based hazard and risk categories for nanomaterials is needed for decision-making about exposure control practices in the workplace. A possible strategy would be to select representative (benchmark) materials from various mode of action (MOA) classes, evaluate the hazard and develop risk estimates, and then apply a systematic comparison of new nanomaterials with the benchmark materials in the same MOA class. Poorly soluble particles are used here as an example to illustrate quantitative risk assessment methods for possible benchmark particles and occupational exposure control groups, given mode of action and relative toxicity. Linking such benchmark particles to specific exposure control bands would facilitate the translation of health hazard and quantitative risk information to the development of effective exposure control practices in the workplace. A key challenge is obtaining sufficient dose-response data, based on standard testing, to systematically evaluate the nanomaterials' physical-chemical factors influencing their biological activity. Categorization processes involve both science-based analyses and default assumptions in the absence of substance-specific information. Utilizing data and information from related materials may facilitate initial determinations of exposure control systems for nanomaterials.

[Health risk assessment of coke oven PAHs emissions].

PubMed

Bo, Xin; Wang, Gang; Wen, Rou; Zhao, Chun-Li; Wu, Tie; Li, Shi-Bei

2014-07-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) produced by coke oven are with strong toxicity and carcinogenicity. Taken typical coke oven of iron and steel enterprises as the case study, the dispersion and migration of 13 kinds of PAHs emitted from coke oven were analyzed using AERMOD dispersion model, the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks at the receptors within the modeling domain were evaluated using BREEZE Risk Analyst and the Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol for Hazardous Waste Combustion (HHRAP) was followed, the health risks caused by PAHs emission from coke oven were quantitatively evaluated. The results indicated that attention should be paid to the non-carcinogenic risk of naphthalene emission (the maximum value was 0.97). The carcinogenic risks of each single pollutant were all below 1.0E-06, while the maximum value of total carcinogenic risk was 2.65E-06, which may have some influence on the health of local residents.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Cumulative radiation exposure and associated cancer risk estimates for scoliosis patients: Impact of repetitive full spine radiography.

PubMed

Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Chan, Eva; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

2016-03-01

To quantitatively evaluate the cumulative effective dose and associated cancer risk for scoliotic patients undergoing repetitive full spine radiography during their diagnosis and follow up periods. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic patients at different age were computer simulated with the use of PCXMC software. Gender specific effective dose was then calculated with the ICRP-103 approach. Values of lifetime attributable cancer risk for patients exposed at different age were calculated for both patient genders and for Asian and Western population. Mathematical fitting for effective dose and for lifetime attributable cancer risk, as function of exposed age, was analytically obtained to quantitatively estimate patient cumulated effective dose and cancer risk. The cumulative effective dose of full spine radiography with posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed annually at age between 5 and 30 years using digital radiography system was calculated as 15mSv. The corresponding cumulative lifetime attributable cancer risk for Asian and Western population was calculated as 0.08-0.17%. Female scoliotic patients would be at a statistically significant higher cumulated cancer risk than male patients under the same full spine radiography protocol. We demonstrate the use of computer simulation and analytic formula to quantitatively obtain the cumulated effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure, both of which are valuable information to medical personnel and patients' parents concern about radiation safety in repetitive full spine radiography. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible vegetable oils marketed in Shandong of China.

PubMed

Jiang, Dafeng; Xin, Chenglong; Li, Wei; Chen, Jindong; Li, Fenghua; Chu, Zunhua; Xiao, Peirui; Shao, Lijun

2015-09-01

This work studies on the quantitative analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in edible vegetable oils in Shandong, China. The concentrations of 15 PAHs in 242 samples were determined by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection. The results indicated that the mean concentration of 15 PAHs in oil samples was 54.37 μg kg(-1). Low molecular weight PAH compounds were the predominant contamination. Especially, the carcinogenic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) was detected at a mean concentration of 1.28 μg kg(-1), which was lower than the limit of European Union and China. A preliminary evaluation of human health risk assessment for PAHs was accomplished using BaP toxic equivalency factors and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR). The ILCR values for children, adolescents, adults, and seniors were all larger than 1 × 10(-6), indicating a high potential carcinogenic risk on the dietary exposed populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Embedding Mental Health Support in Schools: Learning from the Targeted Mental Health in Schools (TaMHS) National Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolpert, Miranda; Humphrey, Neil; Belsky, Jay; Deighton, Jessica

2013-01-01

The Targeted Mental Health in Schools (TaMHS) programme was a nationwide initiative that funded mental health provision in schools for pupils at risk of or already experiencing mental health problems. The implementation, impact and experience of this programme was evaluated using quantitative and qualitative methodology involving three main…

The effects of infographics and several quantitative versus qualitative formats for cardiovascular disease risk, including heart age, on people's risk understanding.

PubMed

Damman, Olga C; Vonk, Suzanne I; van den Haak, Maaike J; van Hooijdonk, Charlotte M J; Timmermans, Danielle R M

2018-03-11

To study how comprehension of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is influenced by: (1) infographics about qualitative risk information, with/without risk numbers; (2) which qualitative risk dimension is emphasized; (3) heart age vs. traditional risk format. For aim 1, a 2 (infographics versus text) x 2 (risk number versus no risk number) between-subjects design was used. For aim 2, three pieces of information were tested within-subjects. Aim 3 used a simple comparison group. Participants (45-65 yrs old) were recruited through an online access panel; low educated people were oversampled. They received hypothetical risk information (20%/61yrs). Primary outcomes: recall, risk appraisals, subjective/objective risk comprehension. behavioral intentions, information evaluations. Infographics of qualitative risk dimensions negatively affected recall, subjective risk comprehension and information evaluations. No effect of type of risk dimension was found on risk perception. Heart age influenced recall, comprehension, evaluations and affective risk appraisals. Infographics of hypothetical CVD risk information had detrimental effects on measures related to risk perception/comprehension, but effects were mainly seen in undereducated participants. Heart age influenced perceptions/comprehension of hypothetical risk in a way that seemed to support understanding. Heart age seems a fruitful risk communication approach in disease risk calculators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-01-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Risk assessment of supply chain for pharmaceutical excipients with AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Maozhong; Du, Yunai; Wang, Qiyue; Sun, Chunmeng; Ling, Xiang; Yu, Boyang; Tu, Jiasheng; Xiong, Yerong

2016-04-01

As the essential components in formulations, pharmaceutical excipients directly affect the safety, efficacy, and stability of drugs. Recently, safety incidents of pharmaceutical excipients posing seriously threats to the patients highlight the necessity of controlling the potential risks. Hence, it is indispensable for the industry to establish an effective risk assessment system of supply chain. In this study, an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was developed based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematical theory, which quantitatively assessed the risks of supply chain. Taking polysorbate 80 as the example for model analysis, it was concluded that polysorbate 80 for injection use is a high-risk ingredient in the supply chain compared to that for oral use to achieve safety application in clinic, thus measures should be taken to control and minimize those risks.

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies

PubMed Central

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. Methods We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. Results The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was −1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (−0.18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (−1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or forgone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24892175

Estimating the incremental net health benefit of requirements for cardiovascular risk evaluation for diabetes therapies.

PubMed

Chawla, Anita J; Mytelka, Daniel S; McBride, Stephan D; Nellesen, Dave; Elkins, Benjamin R; Ball, Daniel E; Kalsekar, Anupama; Towse, Adrian; Garrison, Louis P

2014-03-01

To evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of pre-approval requirements for safety data to detect cardiovascular (CV) risk contained in the December 2008 U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance for developing type 2 diabetes drugs compared with the February 2008 FDA draft guidance from the perspective of diabetes population health. We applied the incremental net health benefit (INHB) framework to quantify the benefits and risks of investigational diabetes drugs using a common survival metric (life-years [LYs]). We constructed a decision analytic model for clinical program development consistent with the requirements of each guidance and simulated diabetes drugs, some of which had elevated CV risk. Assuming constant research budgets, we estimate the impact of increased trial size on drugs investigated. We aggregate treatment benefit and CV risks for each approved drug over a 35-year horizon under each guidance. The quantitative analysis suggests that the December 2008 guidance adversely impacts diabetes population health. INHB was -1.80 million LYs, attributable to delayed access to diabetes therapies (-0 .18 million LYs) and fewer drugs (-1.64 million LYs), but partially offset by reduced CV risk exposure (0.02 million LYs). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. The health outcomes impact of all potential benefits and risks should be evaluated in a common survival measure, including health gain from avoided adverse events, lost health benefits from delayed or for gone efficacious products, and impact of alternative policy approaches. Quantitative analysis of the December 2008 FDA guidance for diabetes therapies indicates that negative impact on patient health will result. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative relationship between crash risks and pavement skid resistance.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

Faced with continuously increasing maintenance due to aging infrastructure, the Texas Department of : Transportation (TxDOT) is evaluating the potential impact of reduced funding on highway safety. The main : objective of this report is to develop a ...

GENETIC ACTIVITY PROFILES AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A methodology has been developed to display and evaluate multiple test quantitative information on genetic toxicants for purposes of hazard/risk assessment. ose information is collected from the open literature: either the lowest effective dose (LED) or the highest ineffective do...

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of ammonia that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of n-butanol that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for n-butanol. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Characterizing risk assessments for the development of occupational exposure limits for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Schulte, P A; Kuempel, E D; Drew, N M

2018-06-01

The commercialization of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) began in the early 2000's. Since then the number of commercial products and the number of workers potentially exposed to ENMs is growing, as is the need to evaluate and manage the potential health risks. Occupational exposure limits (OELs) have been developed for some of the first generation of ENMs. These OELs have been based on risk assessments that progressed from qualitative to quantitative as nanotoxicology data became available. In this paper, that progression is characterized. It traces OEL development through the qualitative approach of general groups of ENMs based primarily on read-across with other materials to quantitative risk assessments for nanoscale particles including titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes and nanofibers, silver nanoparticles, and cellulose nanocrystals. These represent prototypic approaches to risk assessment and OEL development for ENMs. Such substance-by-substance efforts are not practical given the insufficient data for many ENMs that are currently being used or potentially entering commerce. Consequently, categorical approaches are emerging to group and rank ENMs by hazard and potential health risk. The strengths and limitations of these approaches are described, and future derivations and research needs are discussed. Critical needs in moving forward with understanding the health effects of the numerous EMNs include more standardized and accessible quantitative data on the toxicity and physicochemical properties of ENMs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The influence of graphic format on breast cancer risk communication.

PubMed

Schapira, Marilyn M; Nattinger, Ann B; McAuliffe, Timothy L

2006-09-01

Graphic displays can enhance quantitative risk communication. However, empiric data regarding the effect of graphic format on risk perception is lacking. We evaluate the effect of graphic format elements on perceptions of risk magnitude and perceived truth of data. Preferences for format also were assessed. Participants (254 female primary care patients) viewed a series of hypothetical risk communications regarding the lifetime risk of breast cancer. Identical numeric risk information was presented using different graphic formats. Risk was perceived to be of lower magnitude when communicated with a bar graph as compared with a pictorial display (p < 0.0001), or with consecutively versus randomly highlighted symbols in a pictorial display (p = 0.0001). Data were perceived to be more true when presented with random versus consecutive highlights in a pictorial display (p < 0.01). A pictorial display was preferred to a bar graph format for the presentation of breast cancer risk estimates alone (p = 0.001). When considering breast cancer risk in comparison to heart disease, stroke, and osteoporosis, however, bar graphs were preferred pictorial displays (p < 0.001). In conclusion, elements of graphic format used to convey quantitative risk information effects key domains of risk perception. One must be cognizant of these effects when designing risk communication strategies.

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

Methodology for determining the investment attractiveness of construction of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nezhnikova, Ekaterina; Kashirin, Valentin; Davydova, Yana; Kazakova, Svetlana

2018-03-01

The article presents the analysis of the existing methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of high-rise construction. The authors determined and justified the primary choice of objects and territories that are the most attractive for the development of high-rise construction. A system of risk indicators has been developed that allow making a quantitative adjustment for a particular project in the evaluation of the efficiency of investment projects. The study is aimed at developing basic methodological concepts for a comparative evaluation of the prospects of construction of high-rise facilities that allow to take into consideration the features of investment in construction and to enable quantitative evaluation of the investment effectiveness in high-rise construction.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VaR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-30

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS The use of quantitative cost risk analysis tools can be valuable in measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004...assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost, schedule, and...www.amazon.com Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review (RAND Working Paper WR-112-RC

Development of quantitative risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griesmeyer, J. M.; Okrent, D.

Some of the major considerations for effective management of risk are discussed, with particular emphasis on risks due to nuclear power plant operations. Although there are impacts associated with the rest of the fuel cycle, they are not addressed here. Several previously published proposals for quantitative risk criteria are reviewed. They range from a simple acceptance criterion on individual risk of death to a quantitative risk management framework. The final section discussed some of the problems in the establishment of a framework for the quantitative management of risk.

Evaluation of the Urine Protein/Creatinine Ratio Measured with the Dipsticks Clinitek Atlas PRO 12.

PubMed

Hermida, Fernando J; Soto, Sonia; Benitez, Alfonso J

2016-01-01

Screening for urine proteins is recommended for the detection of albuminuria in high risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare the Clinitek Atlas PRO12 reagent urine strip with quantitative methods for the determination of protein/creatinine ratio and to evaluate the usefulness of the semi-quantitative Clinitek Atlas PRO12 reagent urine strip as a tool in the early detection of albuminuria among the general population. Six hundred first morning urine specimens were collected from outpatients with various clinical conditions. The results showed that the test data for the urine dipstick Clinitek Atlas PRO12 show good agreement with the quantitative measurement of protein, creatinine and protein/creatinine ratio. In addition, this study shows that 97.2% of the samples which gave "normal" protein/creatinine ratios by the semi-quantitative method, showed albumin/creatinine ratio < 30 mg/g by the quantitative methods. Our results show that Clinitek Atlas PRO12 reagent strips can be used for the purposes of albuminuria screening in the general population.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Freshwater Impacted by Animal Fecal Material

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluated the potential for human illness from a hypothetical recreational exposure to freshwater impacted by land-applied, agricultural animal fecal material. The hypothetical exposure scenario included the following characteristics: 1) fresh cattle manure, pig slurry, or ch...

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Hey girlfriend: an evaluation of AIDS prevention among women in the sex industry.

PubMed

Dorfman, L E; Derish, P A; Cohen, J B

1992-01-01

Increasingly, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) prevention programs have been developed to reach and influence street-based populations. Standard methods of evaluation do not fit the conditions of such programs. This article describes a process and outcome evaluation of an AIDS prevention program for sex workers in which qualitative and quantitative methods were combined in order to mediate research problems endemic to street-based populations. Methods included epidemiological questionnaires, open-ended interviews with participants, and ethnographic field notes. Process evaluation findings show that field staff who were indigenous to the neighborhood and population readily gained access to the community of sex workers and simultaneously became role models for positive behavior change. Outcome findings show that sex workers do feel at risk for AIDS, but usually from clients rather than from husbands or boyfriends. Accordingly, they use condoms more frequently with clients than with steady partners. Increasing condom use among sex workers with their steady partners remains an important challenge for AIDS prevention. Combining qualitative and quantitative research data provided a more comprehensive assessment of how to reach sex workers with effective AIDS risk reduction messages than either method could have provided alone.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review

76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-13

...] Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review AGENCY: Food and Drug... availability of a draft report entitled ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs... ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review.'' A literature...

Quantitative Analysis of the Cervical Texture by Ultrasound and Correlation with Gestational Age.

PubMed

Baños, Núria; Perez-Moreno, Alvaro; Migliorelli, Federico; Triginer, Laura; Cobo, Teresa; Bonet-Carne, Elisenda; Gratacos, Eduard; Palacio, Montse

2017-01-01

Quantitative texture analysis has been proposed to extract robust features from the ultrasound image to detect subtle changes in the textures of the images. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of quantitative cervical texture analysis to assess cervical tissue changes throughout pregnancy. This was a cross-sectional study including singleton pregnancies between 20.0 and 41.6 weeks of gestation from women who delivered at term. Cervical length was measured, and a selected region of interest in the cervix was delineated. A model to predict gestational age based on features extracted from cervical images was developed following three steps: data splitting, feature transformation, and regression model computation. Seven hundred images, 30 per gestational week, were included for analysis. There was a strong correlation between the gestational age at which the images were obtained and the estimated gestational age by quantitative analysis of the cervical texture (R = 0.88). This study provides evidence that quantitative analysis of cervical texture can extract features from cervical ultrasound images which correlate with gestational age. Further research is needed to evaluate its applicability as a biomarker of the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, as well as its role in cervical assessment in other clinical situations in which cervical evaluation might be relevant. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

2005-08-01

Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

An Overview of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Propulsion Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.

1998-01-01

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has been working to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) in decisions concerning the Space Shuttle and other NASA projects. One current major NASA QRA study is the creation of a risk model for the overall Space Shuttle system. The model is intended to provide a tool to estimate Space Shuttle risk and to perform sensitivity analyses/trade studies, including the evaluation of upgrades. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is a part of the NASA team conducting the QRA study; MSFC responsibility involves modeling the propulsion elements of the Space Shuttle, namely: the External Tank (ET), the Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), and the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). This paper discusses the approach that MSFC has used to model its Space Shuttle elements, including insights obtained from this experience in modeling large scale, highly complex systems with a varying availability of success/failure data. Insights, which are applicable to any QRA study, pertain to organizing the modeling effort, obtaining customer buy-in, preparing documentation, and using varied modeling methods and data sources. Also provided is an overall evaluation of the study results, including the strengths and the limitations of the MSFC QRA approach and of qRA technology in general.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) (External ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review and public comment of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of tetrahydrofuran (THF) that when finalized will appear on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Quantitative aspects of radon daughter exposure and lung cancer in underground miners.

PubMed Central

Edling, C; Axelson, O

1983-01-01

Epidemiological studies have shown an excessive incidence of lung cancer in miners with exposure to radon daughters. The various risk estimates have ranged from six to 47 excess cases per 10(6) person years and working level month, but the effect of smoking has not been fully evaluated. The present study, among a group of iron ore miners, is an attempt to obtain quantitative information about the risk of lung cancer due to radon and its daughters among smoking and non-smoking miners. The results show a considerable risk for miners to develop lung cancer; even non-smoking miners seem to be at a rather high risk. An additive effect of smoking and exposure to radon daughters is indicated and an estimate of about 30-40 excess cases per 10(6) person years and working level month seems to apply on a life time basis to both smoking and non-smoking miners aged over 50. PMID:6830715

Noninvasive Biomonitoring Approaches to Determine Dosimetry and Risk Following Acute Chemical Exposure: Analysis of Lead or Organophosphate Insecticide in Saliva

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timchalk, Chuck; Poet, Torka S.; Kousba, Ahmed A.

2004-04-01

There is a need to develop approaches for assessing risk associated with acute exposures to a broad-range of chemical agents and to rapidly determine the potential implications to human health. Non-invasive biomonitoring approaches are being developed using reliable portable analytical systems to quantitate dosimetry utilizing readily obtainable body fluids, such as saliva. Saliva has been used to evaluate a broad range of biomarkers, drugs, and environmental contaminants including heavy metals and pesticides. To advance the application of non-invasive biomonitoring a microfluidic/ electrochemical device has also been developed for the analysis of lead (Pb), using square wave anodic stripping voltammetry. Themore » system demonstrates a linear response over a broad concentration range (1 2000 ppb) and is capable of quantitating saliva Pb in rats orally administered acute doses of Pb-acetate. Appropriate pharmacokinetic analyses have been used to quantitate systemic dosimetry based on determination of saliva Pb concentrations. In addition, saliva has recently been used to quantitate dosimetry following exposure to the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos in a rodent model system by measuring the major metabolite, trichloropyridinol, and saliva cholinesterase inhibition following acute exposures. These results suggest that technology developed for non-invasive biomonitoring can provide a sensitive, and portable analytical tool capable of assessing exposure and risk in real-time. By coupling these non-invasive technologies with pharmacokinetic modeling it is feasible to rapidly quantitate acute exposure to a broad range of chemical agents. In summary, it is envisioned that once fully developed, these monitoring and modeling approaches will be useful for accessing acute exposure and health risk.« less

Quantitative fetal fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in the prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Mmc; Vis, J Y; Wilms, F F; Oudijk, M A; Kwee, A; Porath, M M; Oei, G; Scheepers, Hcj; Spaanderman, Mea; Bloemenkamp, Kwm; Haak, M C; Bolte, A C; Vandenbussche, Fpha; Woiski, M D; Bax, C J; Cornette, Jmj; Duvekot, J J; Nij Bijvanck, Bwa; van Eyck, J; Franssen, Mtm; Sollie, K M; van der Post, Jam; Bossuyt, Pmm; Opmeer, B C; Kok, M; Mol, Bwj; van Baaren, G-J

2016-11-01

To evaluate whether in symptomatic women, the combination of quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing and cervical length (CL) improves the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN and CL. Post hoc analysis of frozen fFN samples of a nationwide cohort study. Ten perinatal centres in the Netherlands. Symptomatic women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation. The risk of PTD <7 days was estimated in predefined CL and fFN strata. We used logistic regression to develop a model including quantitative fFN and CL, and one including qualitative fFN (threshold 50 ng/ml) and CL. We compared the models' capacity to identify women at low risk (<5%) for delivery within 7 days using a reclassification table. Spontaneous delivery within 7 days after study entry. We studied 350 women, of whom 69 (20%) delivered within 7 days. The risk of PTD in <7 days ranged from 2% in the lowest fFN group (<10 ng/ml) to 71% in the highest group (>500 ng/ml). Multivariable logistic regression showed an increasing risk of PTD in <7 days with rising fFN concentration [10-49 ng/ml: odds ratio (OR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.23-7.0; 50-199 ng/ml: OR 3.2, 95% CI 0.79-13; 200-499 ng/ml: OR 9.0, 95% CI 2.3-35; >500 ng/ml: OR 39, 95% CI 9.4-164] and shortening of the CL (OR 0.86 per mm, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). Use of quantitative fFN instead of qualitative fFN resulted in reclassification of 18 (5%) women from high to low risk, of whom one (6%) woman delivered within 7 days. In symptomatic women, quantitative fFN testing does not improve the prediction of PTD within 7 days compared with qualitative fFN testing in combination with CL measurement in terms of reclassification from high to low (<5%) risk, but it adds value across the risk range. Quantitative fFN testing adds value to qualitative fFN testing with CL measurement in the prediction of PTD. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Risk compensation behaviours in construction workers' activities.

PubMed

Feng, Yingbin; Wu, Peng

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test whether the construction workers have the tendency of engaging in risk compensation behaviours, and identify the demographic variables, which may influence the extent to which the construction workers may show risk compensation behaviours. Both quantitative (survey) and qualitative (interviews) approaches were used in this study. A questionnaire survey was conducted with all the construction workers on three building construction sites of a leading construction company in Australia. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted to validate the findings of the quantitative research. The findings indicate that workers tend to show risk compensation behaviours in the construction environment. The workers with more working experience, higher education, or having never been injured at work before have a higher tendency to show risk compensation in their activities than the others. The implication is that contractors need to assess the potential influence of workers' risk compensation behaviours when evaluating the effect of risk control measures. It is recommended that supervisors pay more attention to the behavioural changes of those workers who have more experience, higher education, and have never been injured before after the implementation of new safety control measures on construction site.

Amoeba-related health risk in drinking water systems: could monitoring of amoebae be a complementary approach to current quality control strategies?

PubMed

Codony, Francesc; Pérez, Leonardo Martín; Adrados, Bárbara; Agustí, Gemma; Fittipaldi, Mariana; Morató, Jordi

2012-01-01

Culture-based methods for fecal indicator microorganisms are the standard protocol to assess potential health risk from drinking water systems. However, these traditional fecal indicators are inappropriate surrogates for disinfection-resistant fecal pathogens and the indigenous pathogens that grow in drinking water systems. There is now a range of molecular-based methods, such as quantitative PCR, which allow detection of a variety of pathogens and alternative indicators. Hence, in addition to targeting total Escherichia coli (i.e., dead and alive) for the detection of fecal pollution, various amoebae may be suitable to indicate the potential presence of pathogenic amoeba-resisting microorganisms, such as Legionellae. Therefore, monitoring amoeba levels by quantitative PCR could be a useful tool for directly and indirectly evaluating health risk and could also be a complementary approach to current microbial quality control strategies for drinking water systems.

Quantitative assessment of the risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA.

PubMed

Kamakawa, H; Koiwai, M; Satomura, S; Eto, M; Sugiura, K

2009-08-01

Up to October 2004, dogs and cats imported into Japan were subjected to a quarantine regimen which consisted of vaccination and a 30- to 365-day waiting period in the country of origin and a 14-day quarantine period upon arrival in Japan. This regimen was replaced by a new one, consisting of vaccination, antibody level titration and a 180-day waiting period in the country of origin, in November 2004. To evaluate the effect of this policy change, a quantitative risk assessment was undertaken. The risk of rabies entering Japan through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA under the old - and new - regimens was quantitatively assessed and compared. Under the new regimen, rabies will enter Japan once every 4932 years (90% confidence interval 1812-13 412 years) through the importation of dogs and cats from the USA. Under the old regimen, rabies would enter Japan once every 70 years (39-205 years), 83 years (45-267 years) or 190 years (104-609 years) assuming that the animal departs the country of origin 30 days, 180 days or 365 days after vaccination, respectively. This indicates the policy change would reduce the risk by a factor of 1/25-1/70.

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

Development and Justification of a Risk Evaluation Matrix To Guide Chemical Testing Necessary To Select and Qualify Plastic Components Used in Production Systems for Pharmaceutical Products.

PubMed

Jenke, Dennis

2015-01-01

An accelerating trend in the pharmaceutical industry is the use of plastic components in systems used to produce an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. If the active pharmaceutical ingredient, the finished drug product, or any solution used to generate them (for example, a process stream such as media, buffers, eluents, and the like) is contacted by a plastic component at any time during the production process, substances leached from the component may accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product, affecting its safety and/or efficacy. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that is used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is chemically suitable for its intended use. By considering key properties of the component, the contact medium, the contact conditions, and the active pharmaceutical ingredient's or finished drug product's clinical conditions of use, use of the risk evaluation matrix produces a risk score whose magnitude reflects the accumulated risk that the component will interact with the contact solution to such an extent that component-related extractables will accumulate in the active pharmaceutical ingredient or finished drug product as leachables at levels sufficiently high to adversely affect user safety. The magnitude of the risk score establishes the amount and rigor of the testing that is required to select and qualify the component, and such testing is broadly grouped into three categories: baseline assessment, general testing, and full testing (extractables profiling). Production suites used to generate pharmaceuticals can include plastic components. It is possible that substances in the components could leach into manufacturing solutions and accumulate in the pharmaceutical product. In this article the author develops and justifies a semi-quantitative risk evaluation matrix that can be used to determine the amount and rigor of component testing that may be necessary and appropriate to establish that the component is suitable for its intended use. Use of the risk evaluation matrix allows a user of a component to determine the type and amount of testing that should be performed to establish the patient safety risk associated with using that component in order to manufacture an active pharmaceutical ingredient or a finished drug product. © PDA, Inc. 2015.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Freshwater Impacted by Animal Fecal Material (proceedings)

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluated the potential for human illness from a hypothetical recreational exposure to freshwater that was impacted by land-applied, agricultural animal fecal material. The scenario included 1) fresh cattle manure, pig slurry, or chicken litter (fecal material) land-applied, a...

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland.

PubMed

Cummins, E; Kennedy, R; Cormican, M

2010-01-15

Cryptosporidium species are protozoan parasites associated with gastro-intestinal illness. Following a number of high profile outbreaks worldwide, it has emerged as a parasite of major public health concern. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to evaluate the annual risk of infection from Cryptosporidium in tap water in Ireland. The assessment considers the potential initial contamination levels in raw water, oocyst removal and decontamination events following various process stages, including coagulation/flocculation, sedimentation, filtration and disinfection. A number of scenarios were analysed to represent potential risks from public water supplies, group water schemes and private wells. Where surface water is used additional physical and chemical water treatment is important in terms of reducing the risk to consumers. The simulated annual risk of illness for immunocompetent individuals was below 1 x 10(-4) per year (as set by the US EPA) except under extreme contamination events. The risk for immunocompromised individuals was 2-3 orders of magnitude greater for the scenarios analysed. The model indicates a reduced risk of infection from tap water that has undergone microfiltration, as this treatment is more robust in the event of high contamination loads. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of watershed protection and the importance of adequate coagulation/flocculation in conventional treatment. The frequency of failure of the treatment process is the most important parameter influencing human risk in conventional treatment. The model developed in this study may be useful for local authorities, government agencies and other stakeholders to evaluate the likely risk of infection given some basic input data on source water and treatment processes used. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Huang, Yong-Sheng; Fan, Qian-Qian; Li, Chuang; Nie, Meng; Quan, Hong-Yang; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Lodge, David M; Finnoff, David; Shogren, Jason F; Lewis, Mark A; Lamberti, Gary

2002-12-07

Numbers of non-indigenous species--species introduced from elsewhere - are increasing rapidly worldwide, causing both environmental and economic damage. Rigorous quantitative risk-analysis frameworks, however, for invasive species are lacking. We need to evaluate the risks posed by invasive species and quantify the relative merits of different management strategies (e.g. allocation of resources between prevention and control). We present a quantitative bioeconomic modelling framework to analyse risks from non-indigenous species to economic activity and the environment. The model identifies the optimal allocation of resources to prevention versus control, acceptable invasion risks and consequences of invasion to optimal investments (e.g. labour and capital). We apply the model to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), and show that society could benefit by spending up to US$324 000 year(-1) to prevent invasions into a single lake with a power plant. By contrast, the US Fish and Wildlife Service spent US$825 000 in 2001 to manage all aquatic invaders in all US lakes. Thus, greater investment in prevention is warranted.

Dermatologic radiotherapy and thyroid cancer. Dose measurements and risk quantification.

PubMed

Goldschmidt, H; Gorson, R O; Lassen, M

1983-05-01

Thyroid doses for various dermatologic radiation techniques were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters and ionization rate meters in an Alderson-Rando anthropomorphic phantom. The effects of changes in radiation quality and of the use or nonuse of treatment cones and thyroid shields were evaluated in detail. The results indicate that the potential risk of radiogenic thyroid cancer is very small when proper radiation protection measures are used. The probability of radiogenic thyroid cancer developing and the potential mortality risk were assessed quantitatively for each measurement. The quantification of radiation risks allows comparisons with risks of other therapeutic modalities and the common hazards of daily life.

Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Scarinzi, Cecilia; Snidero, Silvia; Gregori, Dario

2016-08-01

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. © The Author(s) 2013.

Indigenous health program evaluation design and methods in Australia: a systematic review of the evidence.

PubMed

Lokuge, Kamalini; Thurber, Katherine; Calabria, Bianca; Davis, Meg; McMahon, Kathryn; Sartor, Lauren; Lovett, Raymond; Guthrie, Jill; Banks, Emily

2017-10-01

Indigenous Australians experience a disproportionately higher burden of disease compared to non-Indigenous Australians. High-quality evaluation of Indigenous health programs is required to inform health and health services improvement. We aimed to quantify methodological and other characteristics of Australian Indigenous health program evaluations published in the peer-reviewed literature. Systematic review of peer-reviewed literature (November 2009-2014) on Indigenous health program evaluation. We identified 118 papers describing evaluations of 109 interventions; 72.0% were university/research institution-led. 82.2% of evaluations included a quantitative component; 49.2% utilised quantitative data only and 33.1% used both quantitative and qualitative data. The most common design was a before/after comparison (30.5%, n=36/118). 7.6% of studies (n=9/118) used an experimental design: six individual-level and three cluster-randomised controlled trials. 56.8% (67/118) reported on service delivery/process outcomes (versus health or health risk factor outcomes) only. Given the number of Indigenous health programs that are implemented, few evaluations overall are published in the peer-reviewed literature and, of these, few use optimal methodologies such as mixed methods and experimental design. Implications for public health: Multiple strategies are required to increase high-quality, accessible evaluation in Indigenous health, including supporting stronger research-policy-practice partnerships and capacity building for evaluation by health services and government. © 2017 The Authors.

Methods and strategies for future reactor safety goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, Steven Andrew

There have been significant discussions over the past few years by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), and others as to the adequacy of the NRC safety goals for use with the next generation of nuclear power reactors to be built in the United States. The NRC, in its safety goals policy statement, has provided general qualitative safety goals and basic quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for nuclear reactors in the United States. Risk metrics such as core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF) have been used as surrogates for the QHOs. In its review of the new plant licensing policy the ACRS has looked at the safety goals, as has the NRC. A number of issues have been raised including what the Commission had in mind when it drafted the safety goals and QHOs, how risk from multiple reactors at a site should be combined for evaluation, how the combination of a new and old reactor at the same site should be evaluated, what the criteria for evaluating new reactors should be, and whether new reactors should be required to be safer than current generation reactors. As part of the development and application of the NRC safety goal policy statement the Commissioners laid out the expectations for the safety of a nuclear power plant but did not address the risk associated with current multi-unit sites, potential modular reactor sites, and hybrid sites that could contain current generation reactors, new passive reactors, and/or modular reactors. The NRC safety goals and the QHOs refer to a "nuclear power plant," but do not discuss whether a "plant" refers to only a single unit or all of the units on a site. There has been much discussion on this issue recently due to the development of modular reactors. Additionally, the risk of multiple reactor accidents on the same site has been largely ignored in the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) done to date, and in most risk-informed analyses and discussions. This dissertation examines potential approaches to updating the safety goals that include the establishment of new quantitative safety goal associated with the comparative risk of generating electricity by viable competing technologies and modifications of the goals to account for multi-plant reactor sites, and issues associated with the use of safety goals in both initial licensing and operational decision making. This research develops a new quantitative health objective that uses a comparable benefit risk metric based on the life-cycle risk of the construction, operation and decommissioning of a comparable non-nuclear electric generation facility, as well as the risks associated with mining and transportation. This dissertation also evaluates the effects of using various methods for aggregating site risk as a safety metric, as opposed to using single plant safety goals. Additionally, a number of important assumptions inherent in the current safety goals, including the effect of other potential negative societal effects such as the generation of greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide) have on the risk of electric power production and their effects on the setting of safety goals, is explored. Finally, the role risk perception should play in establishing safety goals has been explored. To complete this evaluation, a new method to analytically compare alternative technologies of generating electricity was developed, including development of a new way to evaluate risk perception, and a new method was developed for evaluating the risk at multiple units on a single site. To test these modifications to the safety goals a number of possible reactor designs and configurations were evaluated using these new proposed safety goals to determine the goals' usefulness and utility. The results of the analysis showed that the modifications provide measures that more closely evaluate the potential risk to the public from the operation of nuclear power plants than the current safety goals, while still providing a straight-forward process for assessment of reactor design and operation.

Impact of format and content of visual display of data on comprehension, choice and preference: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hildon, Zoe; Allwood, Dominique; Black, Nick

2012-02-01

Displays comparing the performance of healthcare providers are largely based on commonsense. To review the literature on the impact of compositional format and content of quantitative data displays on people's comprehension, choice and preference. Ovid databases, expert recommendations and snowballing techniques. Evaluations of the impact of different formats (bar charts, tables and pictographs) and content (ordering, explanatory visual cues, etc.) of quantitative data displays meeting defined quality criteria. Data extraction Type of decision; decision-making domains; audiences; formats; content; methodology; findings. Most of the 30 studies used quantitative (n= 26) methods with patients or public groups (n= 28) rather than with professionals (n= 2). Bar charts were the most frequent format, followed by pictographs and tables. As regards format, tables and pictographs appeared better understood than bar charts despite the latter being preferred. Although accessible to less numerate and older populations, pictographs tended to lead to more risk avoidance. Tables appeared accessible to all. Aspects of content enhancing the impact of data displays included giving visual explanatory cues and contextual information while still attempting simplicity ('less is more'); ordering data; consistency. Icons rather than numbers were more user-friendly but could lead to over-estimation of risk. Uncertainty was not widely understood, nor well represented. Though heterogeneous and limited in scope, there is sufficient research evidence to inform the presentation of quantitative data that compares the performance of healthcare providers. The impact of new formats, such as funnel plots, needs to be evaluated.

[Application of three control banding tools to occupational health risk assessment of titanium dioxide manufacturing factory].

PubMed

Xu, H D; Zhao, L; Tang, S C; Zhang, J; Kong, F L; Jia, G

2016-12-20

Objective: To explore and validate suitable risk assessment methods for titanium dioxide though applying three risk assessment tools for nanomaterials based on the control banding (CB) approach. Methods: A factory manufacturing titanium dioxide in Jinan city, Shandong province, was assessed using a quantitative exposure method and qualitative risk assessment methods in September, 2014. A condensation particle counter equipment was used to monitor the number concentration of particles at packaging workshop and jet milling workshop. We employed three control banding tools, including CB nanotool, Stoffenmanager nano and the Guidance on working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN) to evaluate the two workshops, then compared the evaluation results. Results: The increases of particle concentrations were generated directly by packaging and jet milling processes, the number concentration from (3.52±1.46) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (14.70±8.86) ×10(4)/cm(3) at packaging workshop and from (0.97±0.25) ×10(4)/cm(3) to (1.26±0.35) ×10(4)/cm(3) at milling workshop (both P <0.05) . The number concentrations at packaging workshop were higher than those at jet milling workshop during both manufacturing and break times (both P <0.05) . The results of CB nanotool showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified asmedium. The results of Stoffenmanager nano showed that the risk level of the packaging workshop was classified as medium and the risk level of the jet milling workshop was classified as low. The results of GWSNN showed that the risk level of packaging workshop was classified as high and the risk level of jet milling workshop was classified as low. Conclusion: The results of evaluation based on the three control banding tools are related and aligned with the results of quantitative monitoring, so they are all suitable to perform occupational health risk assessment on industrial scale production of titanium dioxideto some extent.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

An interactive parents' guide for feeding preschool-aged children: pilot studies for improvement

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There are few motivational materials to help families with limited resources develop optimal, practical feeding strategies for young children to reduce dietary risk for poor diet and weight status. Formative evaluation strategies consisting of both qualitative and quantitative data helped to refine ...

Feasibility of visual aids for risk evaluation by hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease: results from face-to-face interviews.

PubMed

Magliano, Carlos Alberto da Silva; Monteiro, Andrea Liborio; Tura, Bernardo Rangel; Oliveira, Claudia Silvia Rocha; Rebelo, Amanda Rebeca de Oliveira; Pereira, Claudia Cristina de Aguiar

2018-01-01

Communicating information about risk and probability to patients is considered a difficult task. In this study, we aim to evaluate the use of visual aids representing perioperative mortality and long-term survival in the communication process for patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease at the National Institute of Cardiology, a Brazilian public hospital specializing in cardiology. One-on-one interviews were conducted between August 1 and November 20, 2017. Patients were asked to imagine that their doctor was seeking their input in the decision regarding which treatment represented the best option for them. Patients were required to choose between alternatives by considering only the different benefits and risks shown in each scenario, described as the proportion of patients who had died during the perioperative period and within 5 years. Each participant evaluated the same eight scenarios. We evaluated their answers in a qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main findings were that all patients verbally expressed concern about perioperative mortality and that 25% did not express concern about long-term mortality. Twelve percent considered the probabilities irrelevant on the grounds that their prognosis would depend on "God's will." Ten percent of the patients disregarded the reported likelihood of perioperative mortality, deciding to focus solely on the "chance of being cured." In the quantitative analysis, the vast majority of respondents chose the "correct" alternatives, meaning that they made consistent and rational choices. The use of visual aids to present risk attributes appeared feasible in our sample. The impact of heuristics and religious beliefs on shared health decision making needs to be explored better in future studies.

Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

2018-02-01

Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

Comparison of task-based exposure metrics for an epidemiologic study of isocyanate inhalation exposures among autobody shop workers.

PubMed

Woskie, Susan R; Bello, Dhimiter; Gore, Rebecca J; Stowe, Meredith H; Eisen, Ellen A; Liu, Youcheng; Sparer, Judy A; Redlich, Carrie A; Cullen, Mark R

2008-09-01

Because many occupational epidemiologic studies use exposure surrogates rather than quantitative exposure metrics, the UMass Lowell and Yale study of autobody shop workers provided an opportunity to evaluate the relative utility of surrogates and quantitative exposure metrics in an exposure response analysis of cross-week change in respiratory function. A task-based exposure assessment was used to develop several metrics of inhalation exposure to isocyanates. The metrics included the surrogates, job title, counts of spray painting events during the day, counts of spray and bystander exposure events, and a quantitative exposure metric that incorporated exposure determinant models based on task sampling and a personal workplace protection factor for respirator use, combined with a daily task checklist. The result of the quantitative exposure algorithm was an estimate of the daily time-weighted average respirator-corrected total NCO exposure (microg/m(3)). In general, these four metrics were found to be variable in agreement using measures such as weighted kappa and Spearman correlation. A logistic model for 10% drop in FEV(1) from Monday morning to Thursday morning was used to evaluate the utility of each exposure metric. The quantitative exposure metric was the most favorable, producing the best model fit, as well as the greatest strength and magnitude of association. This finding supports the reports of others that reducing exposure misclassification can improve risk estimates that otherwise would be biased toward the null. Although detailed and quantitative exposure assessment can be more time consuming and costly, it can improve exposure-disease evaluations and is more useful for risk assessment purposes. The task-based exposure modeling method successfully produced estimates of daily time-weighted average exposures in the complex and changing autobody shop work environment. The ambient TWA exposures of all of the office workers and technicians and 57% of the painters were found to be below the current U.K. Health and Safety Executive occupational exposure limit (OEL) for total NCO of 20 microg/m(3). When respirator use was incorporated, all personal daily exposures were below the U.K. OEL.

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

PubMed

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-02-18

About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR).

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-07

... the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From Foodborne... quantitative targets established in ``Healthy People 2010.'' In 2005, FoodNet data showed 0.30 L. monocytogenes... 4). In 2003, FDA and FSIS published a quantitative assessment of the relative risk to public health...

Towards a Quantitative Framework for Evaluating Vulnerability of Drinking Water Wells to Contamination from Unconventional Oil & Gas Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soriano, M., Jr.; Deziel, N. C.; Saiers, J. E.

2017-12-01

The rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) production, made possible by advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking), has triggered concerns over risks this extraction poses to water resources and public health. Concerns are particularly acute within communities that host UO&G development and rely heavily on shallow aquifers as sources of drinking water. This research aims to develop a quantitative framework to evaluate the vulnerability of drinking water wells to contamination from UO&G activities. The concept of well vulnerability is explored through application of backwards travel time probability modeling to estimate the likelihood that capture zones of drinking water wells circumscribe source locations of UO&G contamination. Sources of UO&G contamination considered in this analysis include gas well pads and documented sites of UO&G wastewater and chemical spills. The modeling approach is illustrated for a portion of Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania, where more than one thousand shale gas wells have been completed since 2005. Data from a network of eight multi-level groundwater monitoring wells installed in the study site in 2015 are used to evaluate the model. The well vulnerability concept is proposed as a physically based quantitative tool for policy-makers dealing with the management of contamination risks of drinking water wells. In particular, the model can be used to identify adequate setback distances of UO&G activities from drinking water wells and other critical receptors.

Vulnerability of teleosts caught by the pelagic tuna longline fleets in South Atlantic and Western Indian Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucena-Frédou, Flávia; Kell, Laurie; Frédou, Thierry; Gaertner, Daniel; Potier, Michel; Bach, Pascal; Travassos, Paulo; Hazin, Fábio; Ménard, Frédéric

2017-06-01

Productivity and Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) is a methodology for evaluating the vulnerability of a stock based on its biological productivity and susceptibility to fishing. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of 60 stocks of tuna, billfishes and other teleosts caught by the tuna longline fleets operating in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean using a semi-quantitative PSA. We (a) evaluated the vulnerability of the species in the study areas; (b) compared the vulnerability of target and non-target species and oceans; (c) analyzed the sensitivity of data entry; and (d) compared the results of the PSA to other fully quantitative assessment methods. Istiophoridae exhibited the highest scores for vulnerability. The top 10 species at risk were: Atlantic Istiophorus albicans; Indian Ocean Istiompax indica; Atlantic Makaira nigricans and Thunnus alalunga; Indian Ocean Xiphias gladius; Atlantic T. albacares, Gempylus serpens, Ranzania laevis and X. gladius; and Indian Ocean T. alalunga. All species considered at high risk were targeted or were commercialized bycatch, except for the Atlantic G. serpens and R. laevis which were discarded, and may be considered as a false positive. Those species and others at high risk should be prioritized for further assessment and/or data collection. Most species at moderate risk were bycatch species kept for sale. Conversely, species classified at low risk were mostly discarded. Overall, species at high risk were overfished and/or subjected to overfishing. Moreover, all species considered to be within extinction risk (Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable) were in the high-risk category. The good concordance between approaches corroborates the results of our analysis. PSA is not a replacement for traditional stock assessments, where a stock is assessed at regular intervals to provide management advice. It is of importance, however, where there is uncertainty about catches and life history parameters, since it can identify species at risk, and where management action and data collection is required, e.g. for many species at high and most at moderate risk in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans.

AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD FOR ESTABLISHING TEFS FOR DIXON-LIKE COMPOUNDS. PART 2. DEVELOPMENT OF AN APPROACH TO QUANTITATIVELY WEIGHT THE UNDERLYING POTENCY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The current approach for evaluating potential health risks associated with exposure to mixtures of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dixoins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) [hereafter referred to as "dioxin-like compoun...

Developing and Assessing E-Learning Techniques for Teaching Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gel, Yulia R.; O'Hara Hines, R. Jeanette; Chen, He; Noguchi, Kimihiro; Schoner, Vivian

2014-01-01

In the modern business environment, managers are increasingly required to perform decision making and evaluate related risks based on quantitative information in the face of uncertainty, which in turn increases demand for business professionals with sound skills and hands-on experience with statistical data analysis. Computer-based training…

77 FR 5797 - Draft Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-06

... Office of Research and Development. EPA is releasing this draft assessment for the purposes of public... health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information on effects that..., EPA provides the highest quality science- based human health assessments to support the Agency's...

Bone Health Monitoring in Astronauts: Recommended Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography [QCT] for Clinical and Operational Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, J. D.; Truskowski, P.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the concerns that astronauts in long duration flights might have a greater risk of bone fracture as they age than the general population. A panel of experts was convened to review the information and recommend mechanisms to monitor the health of bones in astronauts. The use of Quantitative Computed Tomography (QCT) scans for risk surveillance to detect the clinical trigger and to inform countermeasure evaluation is reviewed. An added benefit of QCT is that it facilitates an individualized estimation of bone strength by Finite Element Modeling (FEM), that can inform approaches for bone rehabilitation. The use of FEM is reviewed as a process that arrives at a composite number to estimate bone strength, because it integrates multiple factors.

Implementation of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination in a High-Risk Infant Follow-Up Program.

PubMed

Maitre, Nathalie L; Chorna, Olena; Romeo, Domenico M; Guzzetta, Andrea

2016-12-01

High-risk infant follow-up programs provide early identification and referral for treatment of neurodevelopmental delays and impairments. In these programs, a standardized neurological examination is a critical component of evaluation for clinical and research purposes. To address primary challenges of provider educational diversity and standardized documentation, we designed an approach to training and implementation of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination with precourse materials, a workshop model, and adaptation of the electronic medical record. Provider completion and documentation of a neurological examination were evaluated before and after Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination training. Standardized training and implementation of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination in a large high-risk infant follow-up is feasible and effective and allows for quantitative evaluation of neurological findings and developmental trajectories. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel ultrasonic method for measuring breast density and breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glide-Hurst, Carri K.; Duric, Neb; Littrup, Peter J.

2008-03-01

Women with high mammographic breast density are at 4- to 6-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared to women with fatty breasts. However, current breast density estimations rely on mammography, which cannot provide accurate volumetric breast representation. Therefore, we explored two techniques of breast density evaluation via ultrasound tomography. A sample of 93 patients was imaged with our clinical prototype; each dataset contained 45-75 tomograms ranging from near the chest wall through the nipple. Whole breast acoustic velocity was determined by creating image stacks and evaluating the sound speed frequency distribution. Ultrasound percent density (USPD) was determined by segmenting high sound speed areas from each tomogram using k-means clustering, integrating over the entire breast, and dividing by total breast area. Both techniques were independently evaluated using two mammographic density measures: (1) qualitative, determined by a radiologist's visual assessment using BI-RADS Categories, and (2) quantitative, via semi-automatic segmentation to calculate mammographic percent density (MPD) for craniocaudal and medio-lateral oblique mammograms. ~140 m/s difference in acoustic velocity was observed between fatty and dense BI-RADS Categories. Increased sound speed was found with increased BI-RADS Category and quantitative MPD. Furthermore, strong positive associations between USPD, BI-RADS Category, and calculated MPD were observed. These results confirm that utilizing sound speed, both for whole-breast evaluation and segmenting locally, can be implemented to evaluate breast density.

Dose-Response Association Between Physical Activity and Incident Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Liu, Xuejiao; Zhang, Dongdong; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Han, Chengyi; Wang, Bingyuan; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhou, Junmei; Zhao, Yang; Shi, Yuanyuan; Hu, Dongsheng; Zhang, Ming

2017-05-01

Despite the inverse association between physical activity (PA) and incident hypertension, a comprehensive assessment of the quantitative dose-response association between PA and hypertension has not been reported. We performed a meta-analysis, including dose-response analysis, to quantitatively evaluate this association. We searched PubMed and Embase databases for articles published up to November 1, 2016. Random effects generalized least squares regression models were used to assess the quantitative association between PA and hypertension risk across studies. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose-response association. We identified 22 articles (29 studies) investigating the risk of hypertension with leisure-time PA or total PA, including 330 222 individuals and 67 698 incident cases of hypertension. The risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.96) with each 10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk increment of leisure-time PA. We found no evidence of a nonlinear dose-response association of PA and hypertension ( P nonlinearity =0.094 for leisure-time PA and 0.771 for total PA). With the linear cubic spline model, when compared with inactive individuals, for those who met the guidelines recommended minimum level of moderate PA (10 metabolic equivalent of task h/wk), the risk of hypertension was reduced by 6% (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.97). This meta-analysis suggests that additional benefits for hypertension prevention occur as the amount of PA increases. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema: a review of the biomarker-surrogate literature and a proposal for a criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema for evaluating the status of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Lassere, Marissa N

2008-06-01

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Section 2 is a systematic, historical review of the biomarker-surrogate endpoint literature with special reference to the nomenclature, the systems of classification and statistical methods developed for their evaluation. In Section 3 an explicit, criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema - Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema - is proposed to evaluate and co-ordinate the multiple dimensions (biological, epidemiological, statistical, clinical trial and risk-benefit evidence) of the biomarker clinical endpoint relationships. The schema systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints using defined levels of evidence. The schema incorporates the three independent domains: Study Design, Target Outcome and Statistical Evaluation. Each domain has items ranked from zero to five. An additional category called Penalties incorporates additional considerations of biological plausibility, risk-benefit and generalizability. The total score (0-15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. The term ;surrogate' is restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Surrogacy status of markers can then be directly compared within and across different areas of medicine to guide individual, trial-based or drug-development decisions. This schema would facilitate communication between clinical, researcher, regulatory, industry and consumer participants necessary for evaluation of the biomarker-surrogate-clinical endpoint relationship in their different settings.

Using Visual Displays to Communicate Risk of Cancer to Women From Diverse Race/Ethnic Backgrounds

PubMed Central

Wong, Sabrina T.; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J.; Kim, Sue E.; Gregorich, Steven E.; Sawaya, George F.; Walsh, Judith M. E.; Washington, A. Eugene; Kaplan, Celia P.

2012-01-01

Objective This study evaluated how well women from diverse race/ethnic groups were able to take a quantitative cancer risk statistic verbally provided to them and report it in a visual format. Methods Cross-sectional survey was administered in English, Spanish or Chinese, to women aged 50 to 80 (n=1,160), recruited from primary care practices. The survey contained breast, colorectal or cervical cancer questions regarding screening and prevention. Women were told cancer-specific lifetime risk then shown a visual display of risk and asked to indicate the specific lifetime risk. Correct indication of risk was the main outcome. Results Correct responses on icon arrays were 46% for breast, 55% for colon, and 44% for cervical; only 25% correctly responded to a magnifying glass graphic. Compared to Whites, African American and Latina women were significantly less likely to use the icon arrays correctly. Higher education and higher numeracy were associated with correct responses. Lower education was associated with lower numeracy. Conclusions Race/Ethnic differences were associated with women’s ability to take a quantitative cancer risk statistic verbally provided to them and report it in a visual format. Practice Implications Systematically considering the complexity of intersecting factors such as race/ethnicity, educational level, poverty, and numeracy in most health communications is needed. (200) PMID:22244322

76 FR 18906 - Mancozeb; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... from mancozeb and ETU in food as follows: i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute dietary exposure and.... Cancer. EPA determines whether quantitative cancer exposure and risk assessments are appropriate for a... quantitative cancer risk assessment is appropriate, cancer risk may be quantified using a linear or nonlinear...

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central Greece. Moreover, remote sensing has proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought monitoring and assessment.

Model-based approach for quantitative estimates of skin, heart, and lung toxicity risk for left-side photon and proton irradiation after breast-conserving surgery.

PubMed

Tommasino, Francesco; Durante, Marco; D'Avino, Vittoria; Liuzzi, Raffaele; Conson, Manuel; Farace, Paolo; Palma, Giuseppe; Schwarz, Marco; Cella, Laura; Pacelli, Roberto

2017-05-01

Proton beam therapy represents a promising modality for left-side breast cancer (BC) treatment, but concerns have been raised about skin toxicity and poor cosmesis. The aim of this study is to apply skin normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) optimization in left-side BC. Ten left-side BC patients undergoing photon irradiation after breast-conserving surgery were randomly selected from our clinical database. Intensity modulated photon (IMRT) and IMPT plans were calculated with iso-tumor-coverage criteria and according to RTOG 1005 guidelines. Proton plans were computed with and without skin optimization. Published NTCP models were employed to estimate the risk of different toxicity endpoints for skin, lung, heart and its substructures. Acute skin NTCP evaluation suggests a lower toxicity level with IMPT compared to IMRT when the skin is included in proton optimization strategy (0.1% versus 1.7%, p < 0.001). Dosimetric results show that, with the same level of tumor coverage, IMPT attains significant heart and lung dose sparing compared with IMRT. By NTCP model-based analysis, an overall reduction in the cardiopulmonary toxicity risk prediction can be observed for all IMPT compared to IMRT plans: the relative risk reduction from protons varies between 0.1 and 0.7 depending on the considered toxicity endpoint. Our analysis suggests that IMPT might be safely applied without increasing the risk of severe acute radiation induced skin toxicity. The quantitative risk estimates also support the potential clinical benefits of IMPT for left-side BC irradiation due to lower risk of cardiac and pulmonary morbidity. The applied approach might be relevant on the long term for the setup of cost-effectiveness evaluation strategies based on NTCP predictions.

Evaluation of bacterial pathogen diversity, abundance and health risks in urban recreational water by amplicon next-generation sequencing and quantitative PCR.

PubMed

Cui, Qijia; Fang, Tingting; Huang, Yong; Dong, Peiyan; Wang, Hui

2017-07-01

The microbial quality of urban recreational water is of great concern to public health. The monitoring of indicator organisms and several pathogens alone is not sufficient to accurately and comprehensively identify microbial risks. To assess the levels of bacterial pathogens and health risks in urban recreational water, we analyzed pathogen diversity and quantified four pathogens in 46 water samples collected from waterbodies in Beijing Olympic Forest Park in one year. The pathogen diversity revealed by 16S rRNA gene targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) showed that 16 of 40 genera and 13 of 76 reference species were present. The most abundant species were Acinetobacter johnsonii, Mycobacterium avium and Aeromonas spp. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of Escherichia coli (uidA), Aeromonas (aerA), M. avium (16S rRNA), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (oaa) and Salmonella (invA) showed that the aerA genes were the most abundant, occurring in all samples with concentrations of 10 4-6 genome copies/100mL, followed by oaa, invA and M. avium. In total, 34.8% of the samples harbored all genes, indicating the prevalence of these pathogens in this recreational waterbody. Based on the qPCR results, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) showed that the annual infection risks of Salmonella, M. avium and P. aeruginosa in five activities were mostly greater than the U.S. EPA risk limit for recreational contacts, and children playing with water may be exposed to the greatest infection risk. Our findings provide a comprehensive understanding of bacterial pathogen diversity and pathogen abundance in urban recreational water by applying both NGS and qPCR. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Presenting risk information to people with diabetes: evaluating effects and preferences for different formats by a web-based randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Edwards, Adrian; Thomas, Richard; Williams, Rhys; Ellner, Andrew L; Brown, Polly; Elwyn, Glyn

2006-11-01

Web-based patient information is widespread and information on the benefits and risks of treatments is often difficult to understand. We therefore evaluated different risk presentation formats - numerical, graphical and others - addressing the pros and cons of tight control versus usual treatment approaches for diabetes. Randomised controlled trial. Online. Publicity disseminated via Diabetes UK. People with diabetes or their carers. Control group information based on British Medical Journal 'Best Treatments'. Four intervention groups received enhanced information resources: (1) detailed numerical information (absolute/relative risk, numbers-needed-to-treat); (2) 'anchoring' to familiar risks or descriptions; (3) graphical (bar charts, thermometer scales, crowd figure formats); (4) combination of 1-3. Decision conflict scale (DCS, a measure of uncertainty); satisfaction with information; further free text responses for qualitative content analysis. Seven hundred and ten people visited the website and were randomised. Five hundred and eight completed the questionnaire for quantitative data. Mean DCS scores ranged from 2.12 to 2.24 for the five randomisation groups, indicating neither clear delay or vacillation about decisions (usually DCS>2.5) nor tending to make decisions (usually DCS<2.0). There were no statistically significant effects of the interventions on DCS, or satisfaction with information. Two hundred and fifty-six participants provided responses for qualitative analysis: most found graphical representations helpful, specifically bar chart formats; many found other graphic formats (thermometer style, crowd figures/smiley faces) and 'anchoring' information unhelpful, and indicated information overload. Many negative experiences with healthcare indicate a challenging context for effective information provision and decision support. Online evaluation of different risk representation formats was feasible. There was a lack of intervention effects on quantitative outcomes, perhaps reflecting already well-informed participants from the Diabetes UK patient organisation. The large qualitative dataset included many comments about what participants found helpful as formats for communicating risk information. These findings assist the design of online decision aids and the representation of risk information. The challenge is to provide more information, in appropriate and clear formats, but without risking information overload. Interactive web designs hold much promise to achieve this.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Vapor Intrusion Studies

PubMed Central

Brewer, Roger; Nagashima, Josh; Kelley, Michael; Heskett, Marvin; Rigby, Mark

2013-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for the risk-based evaluation of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in vapor intrusion investigations. Vapors from petroleum fuels are characterized by a complex mixture of aliphatic and, to a lesser extent, aromatic compounds. These compounds can be measured and described in terms of TPH carbon ranges. Toxicity factors published by USEPA and other parties allow development of risk-based, air and soil vapor screening levels for each carbon range in the same manner as done for individual compounds such as benzene. The relative, carbon range makeup of petroleum vapors can be used to develop weighted, site-specific or generic screening levels for TPH. At some critical ratio of TPH to a targeted, individual compound, the overwhelming proportion of TPH will drive vapor intrusion risk over the individual compound. This is particularly true for vapors associated with diesel and other middle distillate fuels, but can also be the case for low-benzene gasolines or even for high-benzene gasolines if an adequately conservative, target risk is not applied to individually targeted chemicals. This necessitates a re-evaluation of the reliance on benzene and other individual compounds as a stand-alone tool to evaluate vapor intrusion risk associated with petroleum. PMID:23765191

Selected considerations of implementation of the GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cwiklak, Janusz; Fellner, Andrzej; Fellner, Radoslaw; Jafernik, Henryk; Sledzinski, Janusz

2014-05-01

The article describes analysis of the safety and risk for the implementation of precise approach procedures (Localizer Performance and Vertical Guidance - LPV) with GNSS sensor at airports in Warsaw and Katowice. There were used some techniques of the identification of threats (inducing controlled flight into terrain, landing accident, mid-air collision) and evaluations methods based on Fault Tree Analysis, probability of the risk, safety risk evaluation matrix and Functional Hazard Assesment. Also safety goals were determined. Research led to determine probabilities of appearing of threats, as well as allow compare them with regard to the ILS. As a result of conducting the Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA), there were defined requirements essential to reach the required level of the safety. It is worth to underline, that quantitative requirements were defined using FTA.

How important is aspirin adherence when evaluating effectiveness of low-dose aspirin?

PubMed

Navaratnam, Kate; Alfirevic, Zarko; Pirmohamed, Munir; Alfirevic, Ana

2017-12-01

Low-dose aspirin (LDA) is advocated for women at high-risk of pre-eclampsia, providing a modest, 10%, reduction in risk. Cardiology meta-analyses demonstrate 18% reduction in serious vascular events with LDA. Non-responsiveness to aspirin (sometimes termed aspirin resistance) and variable clinical effectiveness are often attributed to suboptimal adherence. The aim of this review was to identify the scope of adherence assessments in RCTs evaluating aspirin effectiveness in cardiology and obstetrics and discuss the quality of information provided by current methods. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, limited to humans and English language, for RCTs evaluating aspirin in cardiology; 14/03/13-13/03/16 and pregnancy 1957-13/03/16. Search terms; 'aspirin', 'acetylsalicylic acid' appearing adjacent to 'myocardial infarction' or 'pregnancy', 'pregnant', 'obstetric' were used. 38% (25/68) of obstetric and 32% (20/62) of cardiology RCTs assessed aspirin adherence and 24% (6/25) and 29% (6/21) of obstetric and cardiology RCTs, respectively, defined acceptable adherence. Semi-quantitative methods (pill counts, medication weighing) prevailed in obstetric RCTs (93%), qualitative methods (interviews, questionnaires) were more frequent in obstetrics (67%). Two obstetric RCTs quantified serum thromboxane B 2 and salicylic acid, but no quantitative methods were used in cardiology Aspirin has proven efficacy, but suboptimal adherence is widespread and difficult to accurately quantify. Little is currently known about aspirin adherence in pregnancy. RCTs evaluating aspirin effectiveness show over-reliance on qualitative adherence assessments vulnerable to inherent inaccuracies. Reliable adherence data is important to assess and optimise the clinical effectiveness of LDA. We propose that adherence should be formally assessed in future trials and that development of quantitative assessments may prove valuable for trial protocols. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for a study of Anticipatory and Preventive multidisciplinary Team Care in a family practice.

PubMed

Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Lemelin, Jacques; Liddy, Clare; Legault, Frances

2010-02-01

BACKGROUND T o examine the methodology used to evaluate whether focusing the work of nurse practitioners and a pharmacist on frail and at-risk patients would improve the quality of care for such patients. Evaluation of methodology of a randomized controlled trial including analysis of quantitative and qualitative data over time and analysis of cost-effectiveness. A single practice in a rural area near Ottawa, Ont. A total of 241 frail patients, aged 50 years and older, at risk of experiencing adverse health outcomes. At-risk patients were randomly assigned to receive Anticipatory and Preventive Team Care (from their family physicians, 1 of 3 nurse practitioners, and a pharmacist) or usual care. The principal outcome for the study was the quality of care for chronic disease management. Secondary outcomes included other quality of care measures and evaluation of the program process and its cost-effectiveness. This article examines the effectiveness of the methodology used. Quantitative data from surveys, administrative databases, and medical records were supplemented with qualitative information from interviews, focus groups, work logs, and study notes. Three factors limit our ability to fully demonstrate the potential effects of this team structure. For reasons outside our control, the intervention duration was shorter than intended; the practice's physical layout did not facilitate interactions between the care providers; and contamination of the intervention effect into the control arm cannot be excluded. The study used a randomized design, relied on a multifaceted approach to evaluating its effects, and used several sources of data. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT00238836 (CONSORT).

Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research

PubMed Central

Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

2017-01-01

How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this “apples-to-oranges” risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual—comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation. PMID:28767274

Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research.

PubMed

Farquhar, Sebastian; Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this "apples-to-oranges" risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual-comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation.

Towards a better reliability of risk assessment: development of a qualitative & quantitative risk evaluation model (Q2REM) for different trades of construction works in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Fung, Ivan W H; Lo, Tommy Y; Tung, Karen C F

2012-09-01

Since the safety professionals are the key decision makers dealing with project safety and risk assessment in the construction industry, their perceptions of safety risk would directly affect the reliability of risk assessment. The safety professionals generally tend to heavily rely on their own past experiences to make subjective decisions on risk assessment without systematic decision making. Indeed, understanding of the underlying principles of risk assessment is significant. In this study, the qualitative analysis on the safety professionals' beliefs of risk assessment and their perceptions towards risk assessment, including their recognitions of possible accident causes, the degree of differentiations on their perceptions of risk levels of different trades of works, recognitions of the occurrence of different types of accidents, and their inter-relationships with safety performance in terms of accident rates will be explored in the Stage 1. At the second stage, the deficiencies of the current general practice for risk assessment can be sorted out firstly. Based on the findings from Stage 1 and the historical accident data from 15 large-scaled construction projects in 3-year average, a risk evaluation model prioritizing the risk levels of different trades of works and which cause different types of site accident due to various accident causes will be developed quantitatively. With the suggested systematic accident recording techniques, this model can be implemented in the construction industry at both project level and organizational level. The model (Q(2)REM) not only act as a useful supplementary guideline of risk assessment for the construction safety professionals, but also assists them to pinpoint the potential risks on site for the construction workers under respective trades of works through safety trainings and education. It, in turn, arouses their awareness on safety risk. As the Q(2)REM can clearly show the potential accident causes leading to different types of accident by trade of works, it helps the concerned safety professionals and parties to plan effective accident prevention measures with reference to the priority of the risk levels. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). This assessment addresses the potential noncancer human health effects from long-term inhalation exposure to ammonia. Now final, this assessment will update the current toxicological information on ammonia posted in 1991. EPA’s program and regional offices may use this assessment to inform decisions to protect human health. EPA completed the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

[Impact of interventions in the pressure ulcer rate].

PubMed

Araya Farías, I; Febré, N

To evaluate the impact of a risk management program for prevention of pressure ulcers (PUs) in an adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU). A quantitative, prospective study performed with a «before and after» evaluation, and designed in three stages: 1) PU incidence study; 2) Intervention by implementing a risk management program, and 3) Assessment of the impact. Adherence to the preventive measures showed a significant increase (11.7%) between the first month of the program and the final month (58.5%) of the assessment. Initial PU rate was 20.9, with a decrease in the rate to 14.0 per 1000 bed occupancy days (P<.05) after the risk management program. The data show that the risk management program, using prevention measures, was effective in reducing the rate of PU in the period under study by more than 33%. Copyright © 2017 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Evaluating risk communication: examining target audience perceptions about four presentation formats for fish consumption health advisory information.

PubMed

Connelly, N A; Knuth, B A

1998-10-01

Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Advice of the Italian CCTN on the health risk assessment relative to exposure to automobile emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Camoni, I.; Mucci, N.; Foa, V.

1998-01-01

Three recommendations expressed by the Italian National Toxicological Committee (CCTN) in the period 1990-1995 are reported; they concern the health impact of exposure to benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), resulting from automobile exhaust products, for Italian general and occupationally exposed populations. The first recommendation takes into consideration the possible long-term effects of the unleaded gasoline, recently introduced in Italy. The latter two recommendations concern the quantitative evaluations of the risk of leukemia and of the risk of lung cancer from exposure to benzene and PAHs, resulting from automobile exhaust.

Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak: literature review (2009-2013) of the methodology used for EID communication analysis.

PubMed

Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Stolero, Nathan; Mordini, Emilio; Billingsley, Matthew; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

2015-04-01

This year alone has seen outbreaks of epidemics such as Ebola, Chikungunya, and many other emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). We must look to the responses of recent outbreaks to help guide our strategies in current and future outbreaks or we risk repeating the same mistakes. The objective of this paper was to conduct a systematic literature review of the methodology used by studies that examined EID communication during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outbreak through different communication channels or by analyzing contents and strategies. This was a systematic review of the literature (n=61) studying risk communication strategies of H1N1 influenza, published between 2009 and 2013, and retrieved from searches of computerized databases, hand searches, and authoritative texts by use of specific search criteria. Searches were followed by review, categorization, and mixed qualitative and quantitative content analysis. Of 41 articles that used quantitative methods, most used surveys (n=35); some employed content analyses (n=4) and controlled trials (n=2). The 16 articles that employed qualitative methods relied on content analyses (n=10), semi-structured interviews (n=2) and focus groups (n=4). Four more articles used mixed-methods or nonstandard methods. Seven different topic categories were found: risk perception and effects on behaviors, framing the risk in the media, public concerns, trust, optimistic bias, uncertainty, and evaluating risk communication. Up until 2013, studies tended to be descriptive and quantitative rather than discursive and qualitative and to focus on the role of the media as representing information and not as a medium for actual communication with the public. Several studies from 2012, and increasingly more in 2013, addressed issues of discourse and framing and the complexity of risk communication with the public. Formative evaluations that use recommendations from past research when designing communication campaigns from the first stages of crises are recommended. Research should employ diverse triangulation processes based on representatives from different stakeholders. Further studies should address the potential offered by social media to create dialogue with individuals and the public at large.

A new in vitro bioassay system for discovery and quantitative evaluation of mosquito repellents

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mosquitoes are vectors of many pathogens that cause human diseases. Although prevention and control of immature stages is the best method to control mosquitoes, repellents play a significant role in reducing the risk of these diseases by preventing mosquito bites. The In vitro K & D bioassay system ...

Relationships and Dropping Out: The Voice of At-Risk Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henry, Robert Thomas

2009-01-01

The practice of retaining students in grade has been studied, researched, discussed, criticized and yet it continues. Dropping out of school prior to graduation has been studied, researched, discussed, written about and continues to be practiced by our youth. Policymakers are often provided quantitative data to consider as they explore, evaluate,…

Characterizing crown fuel distribution for conifers in the interior western United States

Treesearch

Seth Ex; Frederick W. Smith; Tara Keyser

2015-01-01

Canopy fire hazard evaluation is essential for prioritizing fuel treatments and for assessing potential risk to firefighters during suppression activities. Fire hazard is usually expressed as predicted potential fire behavior, which is sensitive to the methodology used to quantitatively describe fuel profiles: methodologies that assume that fuel is distributed...

78 FR 51719 - Draft Toxicological Review of Benzo[a]pyrene: In Support of the Summary Information in the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-21

... Environmental Assessment (NCEA) within the EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD). EPA is releasing this... Program is a human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk information... IRIS Program, EPA provides the highest quality science-based human health assessments to support the...

77 FR 7576 - Draft Toxicological Review of 1,4-Dioxane: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-13

... Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) within the EPA Office of Research and Development. EPA is... Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711; telephone: (919) 541- 1964; facsimile: (919... EPA's IRIS is a human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk...

75 FR 7477 - Draft Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic: In Support of the Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-19

... Environmental Assessment (NCEA) within the EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). The Toxicological Review of Inorganic Arsenic was submitted to the EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) for external peer... IRIS IRIS is a human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk...

A protocol for bladder cancer screening and medical surveillance among high-risk groups: The Drake Health Registry experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marsh, G.M.; Callahan, C.; Pavlock, D.

In 1986, the Drake Health Registry Study initiated bladder cancer screening for 366 persons at high risk because of occupational exposure to beta-naphthylamine. The Drake Health Registry Study screening protocol consists of urinalysis, Papanicolaou cytology, and quantitative fluorescence image analysis. A positive screening test qualifies participants for a full diagnostic evaluation. The screening protocol has been modified during the first 3 years of the program's existence to address unexpected patterns of test results and to incorporate advances in screening technology. The current protocol, which has a two-tiered screening schedule, has been utilized successfully for 15 months. Of the 26 positivemore » results to date most have been based on abnormal Papanicolaou cytology and/or quantitative fluorescence image analysis. Bladder abnormalities were cited among most of the 18 study members who underwent diagnostic evaluation, including chronic cystitis, inflammation, hyperplasia, and dysplasia. We conclude that the screening program is detecting very early changes in a relatively young cohort and that these persons must be monitored over a number of years to ensure adequate medical surveillance.« less

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

PubMed

Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

2013-01-01

Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

Quantitative assessment of background parenchymal enhancement in breast magnetic resonance images predicts the risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Luan; Li, Qiang; Gu, Yajia

2017-02-07

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association betweenthe quantitative assessment of background parenchymal enhancement rate (BPER) and breast cancer. From 14,033 consecutive patients who underwent breast MRI in our center, we randomly selected 101 normal controls. Then, we selected 101 women with benign breast lesions and 101 women with breast cancer who were matched for age and menstruation status. We evaluated BPER at early (2 minutes), medium (4 minutes) and late (6 minutes) enhanced time phases of breast MRI for quantitative assessment. Odds ratios (ORs) for risk of breast cancer were calculated using the receiver operating curve. The BPER increased in a time-dependent manner after enhancement in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Premenopausal women had higher BPER than postmenopausal women at early, medium and late enhanced phases. In the normal population, the OR for probability of breast cancer for premenopausal women with high BPER was 4.1 (95% CI: 1.7-9.7) and 4.6 (95% CI: 1.7-12.0) for postmenopausal women. The OR of breast cancer morbidity in premenopausal women with high BPER was 2.6 (95% CI: 1.1-6.4) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.2-6.1) for postmenopausal women. The BPER was found to be a predictive factor of breast cancer morbidity. Different time phases should be used to assess BPER in premenopausal and postmenopausal women.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2017-12-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2018-06-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

2015-02-01

When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

PubMed

Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

2014-10-01

This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FRAT-up, a Web-based Fall-Risk Assessment Tool for Elderly People Living in the Community

PubMed Central

Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chiari, Lorenzo

2015-01-01

Background About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. Objective The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. Methods FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject’s fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. Results The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated statistical significance of miscalibration. Conclusions FRAT-up is a web-based tool for evaluating the fall risk of people aged 65 or up living in the community. Validation results of fall risks computed by FRAT-up show that its performance is comparable to externally validated state-of-the-art tools. A prototype is freely available through a web-based interface. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01331512 (The InChianti Follow-Up Study); http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01331512 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6UDrrRuaR). PMID:25693419

Implementation of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Exam in a High-Risk Infant Follow-Up Program

PubMed Central

Maitre, Nathalie L; Chorna, Olena; Romeo, Domenico M; Guzzetta, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background High-Risk Infant Follow-Up (HRIF) programs provide early identification and referral for treatment of neurodevelopmental delays and impairments. In these programs, a standardized neurological exam is a critical component of evaluation for clinical and research purposes. Implementation To address primary challenges of provider educational diversity and standardized documentation, we designed an approach to training and implementation of the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Exam (HINE) with pre-course materials, a workshop model and adaptation of the electronic medical record. Conclusions Provider completion and documentation of a neurologic exam were evaluated before and after HINE training. Standardized training and implementation of the HINE in a large HRIF is feasible and effective and allows for quantitative evaluation of neurological findings and developmental trajectories. PMID:27765470

Quantitative Risk Analysis on the Transport of Dangerous Goods Through a Bi-Directional Road Tunnel.

PubMed

Caliendo, Ciro; De Guglielmo, Maria Luisa

2017-01-01

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Retrospective and current risks of mercury to panthers in the Florida Everglades.

PubMed

Barron, Mace G; Duvall, Stephanie E; Barron, Kyle J

2004-04-01

Florida panthers are an endangered species inhabiting south Florida. Hg has been suggested as a causative factor for low populations and some reported panther deaths, but a quantitative assessment of risks has never been performed. This study quantitatively evaluated retrospective (pre-1992) and current (2002) risks of chronic dietary Hg exposures to panthers in the Florida Everglades. A probabilistic assessment of Hg risks was performed using a dietary exposure model and Latin Hypercube sampling that incorporated the variability and uncertainty in ingestion rate, diet, body weight, and mercury exposure of panthers. Hazard quotients (HQs) for retrospective risks ranged from less than 0.1-20, with a 46% probability of exceeding chronic dietary thresholds for methylmercury. Retrospective risks of developing clinical symptoms, including ataxia and convulsions, had an HQ range of <0.1-5.4 with a 17% probability of exceeding an HQ of 1. Current risks were substantially lower (4% probability of exceedences; HQ range <0.1-3.5) because of an estimated 70-90% decline in Hg exposure to panthers over the last decade. Under worst case conditions of panthers consuming only raccoons from the most contaminated area of the Everglades, current risks of developing clinical symptoms that may lead to death was 4.6%. Current risks of mercury poisoning of panthers with a diversified diet was 0.1% (HQ range of <0.1-1.4). The results of this assessment indicate that past Hg exposures likely adversely affected panthers in the Everglades, but current risks of Hg are low.

Toxicity Evaluation of Engineered Nanomaterials: Risk Evaluation Tools (Phase 3 Studies)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

report. The second modeling approach was on quantitative structure activity relationships ( QSARs ). A manuscript entitled “Connecting the dots: Towards...expands rapidly. We proposed two types of mechanisms of toxic action supported by the nano- QSAR model , which collectively govern the toxicity of the...interpretative nano- QSAR model describing toxicity of 18 nano-metal oxides to a HaCaT cell line as a model for dermal exposure. In result, by the comparison of

[Risk factors for adverse course of gastric and duodenal peptic ulcer].

PubMed

Komar, Olena M; Kizlova, Nataliya M; Trylevych, Oleksandra D; Kravchenko, Vasyl V

2018-01-01

Introduction: High morbidity rate, frequent relapses, and significant economic losses give reasons for highlighting the peptic ulcer disease as the most topical medical-statistical problem. The aim of the study is to assess the influence of the main risk factors on the course of gastric and duodenal peptic ulcer. Materials and methods: We formed up the risk groups consisted of patients with 12 modified (4) and regular (8) factors, each characterized with its own signs and gradations. We performed the quantitative evaluation of the factors and scored the signs thereof, the results of which were used for determination of the most informative ones. Results: Among the regular factors, we placed emphasis on gender, age, burdened heredity, and 0(I), Rh+ blood type. The risk of peptic ulcer in hereditary tainted young men of the working age with parental lineage (+2.3) and in males with 0(I) Rh+ blood type (+1.4) was proved. Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection is a key contributor (a predictor of) to severity of the disease course (+9.7) among the modified risk factors. Negative effect of a concomitant pathology (+5.0), including hepatobiliary lesions (+3.8), hypertension (+4.0), and diabetes mellitus (+1.3) is also significant. Diet violation (+3.7), tobacco smoking (+3.2) and stress (+3.0) were ranked third. Conclusions: The results of quantitative evaluation of the factors scoring suggest of the underlying H.pylori infection (the significance of which is growing along with the growth of the disease incidence) and irrational diet as the most informatively important ones. We have established the direct dependence between the most important peptic ulcer risk factors, severity of the disease, and duration and periodicity of treatment thereof.

Speciation and environmental risk assessment of heavy metal in bio-oil from liquefaction/pyrolysis of sewage sludge.

PubMed

Yuan, Xingzhong; Leng, Lijian; Huang, Huajun; Chen, Xiaohong; Wang, Hou; Xiao, Zhihua; Zhai, Yunbo; Chen, Hongmei; Zeng, Guangming

2015-02-01

Liquefaction bio-oil (LBO) produced with ethanol (or acetone) as the solvent and pyrolysis bio-oil (PBO) produced at 550°C (or 850°C) from sewage sludge (SS) were produced, and were characterized and evaluated in terms of their heavy metal (HM) composition. The total concentration, speciation and leaching characteristic of HMs (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, Cd, and Ni) in both LBO and PBO were investigated. The total concentration and exchangeable fraction of Zn and Ni in bio-oils were at surprisingly high levels. Quantitative risk assessment of HM in bio-oils was performed by the method of risk assessment code (RAC), potential ecological risk index (PERI) and geo-accumulation index (GAI). Ni in bio-oil produced by pyrolysis at 850°C (PBO850) and Zn in bio-oil by liquefaction at 360°C with ethanol as solvent (LBO-360E) were evaluated to possess very high risk to the environment according to RAC. Additionally, Cd in PBO850 and LBO-360E were evaluated by PERI to have very high risk and high risk, respectively, while Cd in all bio-oils was assessed moderately contaminated according to GAI. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

Quantitative Assessment of the Safety Benefits Associated with Increasing Clinical Peanut Thresholds Through Immunotherapy.

PubMed

Baumert, Joseph L; Taylor, Steve L; Koppelman, Stef J

Peanut immunotherapy studies are conducted with the aim to decrease the sensitivity of patients to peanut exposure with the outcome evaluated by testing the threshold for allergic response in a double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge. The clinical relevance of increasing this threshold is not well characterized. We aimed to quantify the clinical benefit of an increased threshold for peanut-allergic patients. Quantitative risk assessment was performed by matching modeled exposure to peanut protein with individual threshold levels. Exposure was modeled by pairing US consumption data for various food product categories with potential contamination levels of peanut that have been demonstrated to be present on occasion in such food products. Cookies, ice cream, doughnuts/snack cakes, and snack chip mixes were considered in the risk assessment. Increasing the baseline threshold before immunotherapy from 100 mg or less peanut protein to 300 mg peanut protein postimmunotherapy reduces the risk of experiencing an allergic reaction by more than 95% for all 4 food product categories that may contain trace levels of peanut residue. Further increase in the threshold to 1000 mg of peanut protein had an additional quantitative benefit in risk reduction for all patients reacting to 300 mg or less at baseline. We conclude that achieving thresholds of 300 mg and 1000 mg of peanut protein by peanut immunotherapy is clinically relevant, and that the risk for peanut-allergic patients who have achieved this increased threshold to experience an allergic reaction is reduced in a clinically meaningful way. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF WATERBORNE INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK USING THE HYDRAULIC MODEL AND OUTPATIENT DATA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amano, Ayako; Sakuma, Taisuke; Kazama, So

This study evaluated waterborne infectious diseases risk and incidence rate around Phonm Penh in Cambodia. We use the hydraulic flood simulation, coliform bacterium diffusion model, dose-response model and outpatient data for quantitative analysis. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The incidence (incidence rate) of diarrhea as water borne diseases risk is 0.14 million people (9%) in the inundation area. 2. The residents in the inundation area are exposed up to 4 times as high risk as daily mean calculated by the integrated model combined in the regional scale. 3.The infectious disease risk due to floods and inundation indicated is effective as an element to explain the risk. The scenario explains 34% number of patient estimated by the outpatient data.

How is an Electronic Screening and Brief Intervention Tool on Alcohol Use Received in a Student Population? A Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation

PubMed Central

Van Royen, Paul; Vriesacker, Bart; De Mey, Leen; Van Hal, Guido

2012-01-01

Background A previous study among Antwerp college and university students showed that more male (10.2%–11.1%) than female (1.8%–6.2%) students are at risk for problematic alcohol use. The current literature shows promising results in terms of feasibility and effectiveness for the use of brief electronic interventions to address this health problem in college and university students. We evaluated this type of intervention and cite existing literature on the topic. Objective To develop a website, www.eentjeteveel.be, to motivate college and university students with problematic alcohol use to reduce alcohol consumption and increase their willingness to seek help. Method The website contained a questionnaire (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT]) for students to test their alcohol use. According to their answers, the students immediately received personalized feedback (personal AUDIT score and additional information on risks associated with alcohol use) and a suggestion for further action. Afterward, students could send an email to a student counselor for questions, guidance, or advice. To obtain in-depth qualitative information on the opinions and experiences of students, we held 5 focus group discussions. The topics were publicity, experiences, impressions, and effects of the website. We analyzed the quantitative results of the online test in SPSS 15.0. Results More than 3500 students visited www.eentjeteveel.be; over half were men (55.0%). A total of 34 students participated in the focus group discussions. The mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the intervention allowed a thorough analysis and provided complementary results. The intervention was well received by the student population. However, some minor aspects should be reconsidered, such as website publicity and providing students with options that were added after intermediate evaluation. The intervention increased the motivation of students to think about their alcohol use but could not stimulate them to change their behavior. The website attracted relatively more male than female students and more students in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. The high-risk group was more inclined to seek advice or guidance (23/400, 6%; χ2 2 = 32.4, P < .001) than the low-risk group (34/1714, 2%; χ2 2 = 32.4, P < .001). Conclusions We gained unique insight into students’ experiences, opinions, and perceptions with regard to the intervention. The results show that the intervention was positively received in the population, and the willingness to seek help was increased. However, real behavior change needs further research. The results of this study can assist health providers and researchers in better understanding college and university students’ perceptions of eHealth initiatives. PMID:22525340

Disability adjusted life year (DALY): a useful tool for quantitative assessment of environmental pollution.

PubMed

Gao, Tingting; Wang, Xiaochang C; Chen, Rong; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan

2015-04-01

Disability adjusted life year (DALY) has been widely used since 1990s for evaluating global and/or regional burden of diseases. As many environmental pollutants are hazardous to human health, DALY is also recognized as an indicator to quantify the health impact of environmental pollution related to disease burden. Based on literature reviews, this article aims to give an overview of the applicable methodologies and research directions for using DALY as a tool for quantitative assessment of environmental pollution. With an introduction of the methodological framework of DALY, the requirements on data collection and manipulation for quantifying disease burdens are summarized. Regarding environmental pollutants hazardous to human beings, health effect/risk evaluation is indispensable for transforming pollution data into disease data through exposure and dose-response analyses which need careful selection of models and determination of parameters. Following the methodological discussions, real cases are analyzed with attention paid to chemical pollutants and pathogens usually encountered in environmental pollution. It can be seen from existing studies that DALY is advantageous over conventional environmental impact assessment for quantification and comparison of the risks resulted from environmental pollution. However, further studies are still required to standardize the methods of health effect evaluation regarding varied pollutants under varied circumstances before DALY calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is releasing the draft report, Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran, that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the IRIS Assessment Development Process. Comments received from other Federal agencies and White House Offices are provided below with external peer review panel comments. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Evaluation of New Zealand’s High-Seas Bottom Trawl Closures Using Predictive Habitat Models and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Penney, Andrew J.; Guinotte, John M.

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas. PMID:24358162

Evaluation of New Zealand's high-seas bottom trawl closures using predictive habitat models and quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Penney, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

Preparation of a flood-risk environmental index: case study of eight townships in Changhua County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Peng, Szu-Hsien

2018-02-26

To evaluate flood-prone areas, correlation analysis of flooding factors for the quantitative evaluation of hazard degree was determined to assist in further disaster prevention management. This study used flood-prone areas in 35 villages over eight townships (Changhua, Huatan, Yuanlin, Xiushui, Puyan, Hemei, Dacun, and Erlin) in Changhua County as research samples. Linear combination was used to evaluate flood-prone environmental indices, and an expert questionnaire was designed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method to determine the weights of factors. These factors were then used to calculate the eigenvector of a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the weights for the risk assessment criteria. Through collection of disaster cases, with particular focus on specifically protected areas where flooding has occurred or is likely to occur, public adaptation and response capabilities were evaluated by using an interview questionnaire that contains the items of perceived disaster risk, resource acquisition capability, adaptation capability, and environment understanding and disaster prevention education. Overlays in a geographic information system were used to analyze the flood-risk degree in villages and to construct a distribution map that contains flood-prone environment indices. The results can assist local governments in understanding the risk degree of various administrative areas to aid them in developing effective mitigation plans.

A Quantitative Risk Analysis Framework for Evaluating and Monitoring Operational Reliability of Cloud Computing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Islam, Muhammad Faysal

2013-01-01

Cloud computing offers the advantage of on-demand, reliable and cost efficient computing solutions without the capital investment and management resources to build and maintain in-house data centers and network infrastructures. Scalability of cloud solutions enable consumers to upgrade or downsize their services as needed. In a cloud environment,…

USING QSAR AND SAR TO PREDICT THE TOXICITY AND DEGRADABILITY OF CHEMICALS IN SEDIMENTS AND WATER: AN EVALUATION USING QUADRICYCLANE AND IT'S ANALOGS

EPA Science Inventory

The NRC has examined the availability of toxicity endpoints for industrial chemicals and concluded that many of these chemicals lack even minimum testing. One way of carrying out risk assessments of chemicals having insufficient experimental data is by using Quantitative Structur...

A Quantitative Literature Review of the Effectiveness of Suicide Prevention Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dew, Mary Amanda; And Others

1987-01-01

Applied meta-analysis to several series of studies to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention centers. Results indicate that centers do attract a high-risk population; center clients were more likely to commit suicide than were members of the general population, and individuals who committed suicide were more likely to have been clients than were…

Evaluation of Commercial Cell Preparations as Sources of Calibration Standards for Real-Time qPCR Analysis of Enterococci in Recreational Waters

EPA Science Inventory

In response to the Beach Act, the U.S. EPA has developed a quantitative PCR (qPCR) method for enterococci that meets requirements for rapid, risk-based water quality assessments of recreational waters. Widespread implementation of this method will require that different laborator...

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy's Hanford Site.

PubMed

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret; Downs, Janelle; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn; Salisbury, Jennifer; Kosson, David

2017-03-01

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from non-discernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy's sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy's sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

Risk management in technovigilance: construction and validation of a medical-hospital product evaluation instrument.

PubMed

Kuwabara, Cleuza Catsue Takeda; Evora, Yolanda Dora Martinez; de Oliveira, Márcio Mattos Borges

2010-01-01

With the continuous incorporation of health technologies, hospital risk management should be implemented to systemize the monitoring of adverse effects, performing actions to control and eliminate their damage. As part of these actions, Technovigilance is active in the procedures of acquisition, use and quality control of health products and equipment. This study aimed to construct and validate an instrument to evaluate medical-hospital products. This is a quantitative, exploratory, longitudinal and methodological development study, based on the Six Sigma quality management model, which has as its principle basis the component stages of the DMAIC Cycle. For data collection and content validation, the Delphi technique was used with professionals from the Brazilian Sentinel Hospital Network. It was concluded that the instrument developed permitted the evaluation of the product, differentiating between the results of the tested brands, in line with the initial study goal of qualifying the evaluations performed.

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data limitations to date. Conclusions include a brief discussion of subsequent uncertainty and risk analysis methodologies, and a commentary on present and future applications of QRA in the management of the public health risks associated with the presence of pathogenic microorganisms in the food supply.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be used as "imaging biomarkers" to predict risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer.

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

PubMed

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

Analysis of the Risks and Benefits of New Chemical Entities Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Subsequently Withdrawn From the US Market.

PubMed

Patriarca, Peter A; Van Auken, R Michael; Kebschull, Scott A

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk evaluations of drugs have been conducted since the introduction of modern regulatory systems more than 50 years ago. Such judgments are typically made on the basis of qualitative or semiquantitative approaches, often without the aid of quantitative assessment methods, the latter having often been applied asymmetrically to place emphasis on benefit more so than harm. In an effort to preliminarily evaluate the utility of lives lost or saved, or quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost and gained as a means of quantitatively assessing the potential benefits and risks of a new chemical entity, we focused our attention on the unique scenario in which a drug was initially approved based on one set of data, but later withdrawn from the market based on a second set of data. In this analysis, a dimensionless risk to benefit ratio was calculated in each instance, based on the risk and benefit quantified in similar units. The results indicated that FDA decisions to approve the drug corresponded to risk to benefit ratios less than or equal to 0.136, and that decisions to withdraw the drug from the US market corresponded to risk to benefit ratios greater than or equal to 0.092. The probability of FDA approval was then estimated using logistic regression analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that there was a 50% probability of FDA approval if the risk to benefit ratio was 0.121, and that the probability approaches 100% for values much less than 0.121, and the probability approaches 0% for values much greater than 0.121. The large uncertainty in these estimates due to the small sample size and overlapping data may be addressed in the future by applying the methodology to other drugs.

Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

2003-08-01

The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. Mark

2009-01-01

The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

Development and Implementation of a Design Metric for Systems Containing Long-Term Fluid Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, John W.

2016-01-01

John Steele, a chemist and technical fellow from United Technologies Corporation, provided a water quality module to assist engineers and scientists with a metric tool to evaluate risks associated with the design of space systems with fluid loops. This design metric is a methodical, quantitative, lessons-learned based means to evaluate the robustness of a long-term fluid loop system design. The tool was developed by a cross-section of engineering disciplines who had decades of experience and problem resolution.

[Integral quantitative evaluation of working conditions in the construction industry].

PubMed

Guseĭnov, A A

1993-01-01

Present method evaluating the quality of environment (using MAC and MAL) does not enable to assess completely and objectively the work conditions of building industry due to multiple confounding elements. A solution to this complicated problem including the analysis of various correlating elements of the system "human--work conditions--environment" may be encouraged by social norm of morbidity, which is independent on industrial and natural environment. The complete integral assessment enables to see the whole situation and reveal the points at risk.

Quantitative modelling of amyloidogenic processing and its influence by SORLA in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Schmidt, Vanessa; Baum, Katharina; Lao, Angelyn; Rateitschak, Katja; Schmitz, Yvonne; Teichmann, Anke; Wiesner, Burkhard; Petersen, Claus Munck; Nykjaer, Anders; Wolf, Jana; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Willnow, Thomas E

2012-01-04

The extent of proteolytic processing of the amyloid precursor protein (APP) into neurotoxic amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides is central to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Accordingly, modifiers that increase Aβ production rates are risk factors in the sporadic form of AD. In a novel systems biology approach, we combined quantitative biochemical studies with mathematical modelling to establish a kinetic model of amyloidogenic processing, and to evaluate the influence by SORLA/SORL1, an inhibitor of APP processing and important genetic risk factor. Contrary to previous hypotheses, our studies demonstrate that secretases represent allosteric enzymes that require cooperativity by APP oligomerization for efficient processing. Cooperativity enables swift adaptive changes in secretase activity with even small alterations in APP concentration. We also show that SORLA prevents APP oligomerization both in cultured cells and in the brain in vivo, eliminating the preferred form of the substrate and causing secretases to switch to a less efficient non-allosteric mode of action. These data represent the first mathematical description of the contribution of genetic risk factors to AD substantiating the relevance of subtle changes in SORLA levels for amyloidogenic processing as proposed for patients carrying SORL1 risk alleles.

Quantitative modelling of amyloidogenic processing and its influence by SORLA in Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Vanessa; Baum, Katharina; Lao, Angelyn; Rateitschak, Katja; Schmitz, Yvonne; Teichmann, Anke; Wiesner, Burkhard; Petersen, Claus Munck; Nykjaer, Anders; Wolf, Jana; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Willnow, Thomas E

2012-01-01

The extent of proteolytic processing of the amyloid precursor protein (APP) into neurotoxic amyloid-β (Aβ) peptides is central to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Accordingly, modifiers that increase Aβ production rates are risk factors in the sporadic form of AD. In a novel systems biology approach, we combined quantitative biochemical studies with mathematical modelling to establish a kinetic model of amyloidogenic processing, and to evaluate the influence by SORLA/SORL1, an inhibitor of APP processing and important genetic risk factor. Contrary to previous hypotheses, our studies demonstrate that secretases represent allosteric enzymes that require cooperativity by APP oligomerization for efficient processing. Cooperativity enables swift adaptive changes in secretase activity with even small alterations in APP concentration. We also show that SORLA prevents APP oligomerization both in cultured cells and in the brain in vivo, eliminating the preferred form of the substrate and causing secretases to switch to a less efficient non-allosteric mode of action. These data represent the first mathematical description of the contribution of genetic risk factors to AD substantiating the relevance of subtle changes in SORLA levels for amyloidogenic processing as proposed for patients carrying SORL1 risk alleles. PMID:21989385

Geographic and demographic variabilities of quantitative parameters in stress myocardial computed tomography perfusion.

PubMed

Park, Jinoh; Kim, Hyun-Sook; Hwang, Hye Jeon; Yang, Dong Hyun; Koo, Hyun Jung; Kang, Joon-Won; Kim, Young-Hak

2017-09-01

To evaluate the geographic and demographic variabilities of the quantitative parameters of computed tomography perfusion (CTP) of the left ventricular (LV) myocardium in patients with normal coronary artery on computed tomography angiography (CTA). From a multicenter CTP registry of stress and static computed tomography, we retrospectively recruited 113 patients (mean age, 60 years; 57 men) without perfusion defect on visual assessment and minimal (< 20% of diameter stenosis) or no coronary artery disease on CTA. Using semiautomatic analysis software, quantitative parameters of the LV myocardium, including the myocardial attenuation in stress and rest phases, transmural perfusion ratio (TPR), and myocardial perfusion reserve index (MPRI), were evaluated in 16 myocardial segments. In the lateral wall of the LV myocardium, all quantitative parameters except for MPRI were significantly higher compared with those in the other walls. The MPRI showed consistent values in all myocardial walls (anterior to lateral wall: range, 25% to 27%; p = 0.401). At the basal level of the myocardium, all quantitative parameters were significantly lower than those at the mid- and apical levels. Compared with men, women had significantly higher values of myocardial attenuation and TPR. Age, body mass index, and Framingham risk score were significantly associated with the difference in myocardial attenuation. Geographic and demographic variabilities of quantitative parameters in stress myocardial CTP exist in healthy subjects without significant coronary artery disease. This information may be helpful when assessing myocardial perfusion defects in CTP.

Impact of Hydrogeological Uncertainty on Estimation of Environmental Risks Posed by Hydrocarbon Transportation Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, V.; Lauriola, I.; Bonvicini, S.; Cozzani, V.; Di Federico, V.; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2017-11-01

Ubiquitous hydrogeological uncertainty undermines the veracity of quantitative predictions of soil and groundwater contamination due to accidental hydrocarbon spills from onshore pipelines. Such predictions, therefore, must be accompanied by quantification of predictive uncertainty, especially when they are used for environmental risk assessment. We quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on quantitative forecasting of temporal evolution of two key risk indices, volumes of unsaturated and saturated soil contaminated by a surface spill of light nonaqueous-phase liquids. This is accomplished by treating the relevant uncertain parameters as random variables and deploying two alternative probabilistic models to estimate their effect on predictive uncertainty. A physics-based model is solved with a stochastic collocation method and is supplemented by a global sensitivity analysis. A second model represents the quantities of interest as polynomials of random inputs and has a virtually negligible computational cost, which enables one to explore any number of risk-related contamination scenarios. For a typical oil-spill scenario, our method can be used to identify key flow and transport parameters affecting the risk indices, to elucidate texture-dependent behavior of different soils, and to evaluate, with a degree of confidence specified by the decision-maker, the extent of contamination and the correspondent remediation costs.

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the appendices the final report.

Evaluation of End-User Satisfaction Among Employees Participating in a Web-based Health Risk Assessment With Tailored Feedback

PubMed Central

Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice AJ; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

2012-01-01

Background Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Methods Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. Results In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Conclusions Most people were satisfied with the web-based HRA with tailored feedback. Sources of dissatisfaction were limited opportunities for providing additional health information outside of the predefined health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire and insufficient transparency on the generation of the feedback. Information regarding the aim and content of the HRA should be clear and accurate to prevent unrealistic expectations among end-users. Involving trusted health professionals in the implementation of web-based HRAs may enhance the use of and confidence in the HRA. PMID:23111097

Evaluation of end-user satisfaction among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback.

PubMed

Vosbergen, Sandra; Laan, Eva K; Colkesen, Ersen B; Niessen, Maurice A J; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Peek, Niels

2012-10-30

Web technology is increasingly being used to provide individuals with health risk assessments (HRAs) with tailored feedback. End-user satisfaction is an important determinant of the potential impact of HRAs, as this influences program attrition and adherence to behavioral advice. The aim of this study was to evaluate end-user satisfaction with a web-based HRA with tailored feedback applied in worksite settings, using mixed (quantitative and qualitative) methods. Employees of seven companies in the Netherlands participated in a commercial, web-based, HRA with tailored feedback. The HRA consisted of four components: 1) a health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, 2) a biometric evaluation, 3) a laboratory evaluation, and 4) tailored feedback consisting of a personal health risk profile and lifestyle behavior advice communicated through a web portal. HRA respondents received an evaluation questionnaire after six weeks. Satisfaction with different parts of the HRA was measured on 5-point Likert scales. A free-text field provided the opportunity to make additional comments. In total, 2289 employees participated in the HRA program, of which 637 (27.8%) completed the evaluation questionnaire. Quantitative analysis showed that 85.6% of the respondents evaluated the overall HRA positively. The free-text field was filled in by 29.7 % of the respondents (189 out of 637), who made 315 separate remarks. Qualitative evaluation of these data showed that these respondents made critical remarks. Respondents felt restricted by the answer categories of the health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire, which resulted in the feeling that the corresponding feedback could be inadequate. Some respondents perceived the personal risk profile as unnecessarily alarming or suggested providing more explanations, reference values, and a justification of the behavioral advice given. Respondents also requested the opportunity to discuss the feedback with a health professional. Most people were satisfied with the web-based HRA with tailored feedback. Sources of dissatisfaction were limited opportunities for providing additional health information outside of the predefined health and lifestyle assessment questionnaire and insufficient transparency on the generation of the feedback. Information regarding the aim and content of the HRA should be clear and accurate to prevent unrealistic expectations among end-users. Involving trusted health professionals in the implementation of web-based HRAs may enhance the use of and confidence in the HRA.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Evaluation of airway protection: Quantitative timing measures versus penetration/aspiration score.

PubMed

Kendall, Katherine A

2017-10-01

Quantitative measures of swallowing function may improve the reliability and accuracy of modified barium swallow (MBS) study interpretation. Quantitative study analysis has not been widely instituted, however, secondary to concerns about the time required to make measures and a lack of research demonstrating impact on MBS interpretation. This study compares the accuracy of the penetration/aspiration (PEN/ASP) scale (an observational visual-perceptual assessment tool) to quantitative measures of airway closure timing relative to the arrival of the bolus at the upper esophageal sphincter in identifying a failure of airway protection during deglutition. Retrospective review of clinical swallowing data from a university-based outpatient clinic. Swallowing data from 426 patients were reviewed. Patients with normal PEN/ASP scores were identified, and the results of quantitative airway closure timing measures for three liquid bolus sizes were evaluated. The incidence of significant airway closure delay with and without a normal PEN/ASP score was determined. Inter-rater reliability for the quantitative measures was calculated. In patients with a normal PEN/ASP score, 33% demonstrated a delay in airway closure on at least one swallow during the MBS study. There was no correlation between PEN/ASP score and airway closure delay. Inter-rater reliability for the quantitative measure of airway closure timing was nearly perfect (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.973). The use of quantitative measures of swallowing function, in conjunction with traditional visual perceptual methods of MBS study interpretation, improves the identification of airway closure delay, and hence, potential aspiration risk, even when no penetration or aspiration is apparent on the MBS study. 4. Laryngoscope, 127:2314-2318, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A framework and case studies for evaluation of enzyme ontogeny in children's health risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Gary; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Kancherla, Jayaram; Foos, Brenda; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2017-01-01

Knowledge of the ontogeny of Phase I and Phase II metabolizing enzymes may be used to inform children's vulnerability based upon likely differences in internal dose from xenobiotic exposure. This might provide a qualitative assessment of toxicokinetic (TK) variability and uncertainty pertinent to early lifestages and help scope a more quantitative physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) assessment. Although much is known regarding the ontogeny of metabolizing systems, this is not commonly utilized in scoping and problem formulation stage of human health risk evaluation. A framework is proposed for introducing this information into problem formulation which combines data on enzyme ontogeny and chemical-specific TK to explore potential child/adult differences in internal dose and whether such metabolic differences may be important factors in risk evaluation. The framework is illustrated with five case study chemicals, including some which are data rich and provide proof of concept, while others are data poor. Case studies for toluene and chlorpyrifos indicate potentially important child/adult TK differences while scoping for acetaminophen suggests enzyme ontogeny is unlikely to increase early-life risks. Scoping for trichloroethylene and aromatic amines indicates numerous ways that enzyme ontogeny may affect internal dose which necessitates further evaluation. PBTK modeling is a critical and feasible next step to further evaluate child-adult differences in internal dose for a number of these chemicals.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Reliability and safety, and the risk of construction damage in mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypczak, Izabela; Kogut, Janusz P.; Kokoszka, Wanda; Oleniacz, Grzegorz

2018-04-01

This article concerns the reliability and safety of building structures in mining areas, with a particular emphasis on the quantitative risk analysis of buildings. The issues of threat assessment and risk estimation, in the design of facilities in mining exploitation areas, are presented here, indicating the difficulties and ambiguities associated with their quantification and quantitative analysis. This article presents the concept of quantitative risk assessment of the impact of mining exploitation, in accordance with ISO 13824 [1]. The risk analysis is illustrated through an example of a construction located within an area affected by mining exploitation.

KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors.

PubMed

Lentine, Krista L; Kasiske, Bertram L; Levey, Andrew S; Adams, Patricia L; Alberú, Josefina; Bakr, Mohamed A; Gallon, Lorenzo; Garvey, Catherine A; Guleria, Sandeep; Li, Philip Kam-Tao; Segev, Dorry L; Taler, Sandra J; Tanabe, Kazunari; Wright, Linda; Zeier, Martin G; Cheung, Michael; Garg, Amit X

2017-08-01

The 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors is intended to assist medical professionals who evaluate living kidney donor candidates and provide care before, during and after donation. The guideline development process followed the Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach and guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies that included critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations. However, many recommendations, for which there was no evidence or no systematic search for evidence was undertaken by the Evidence Review Team, were issued as ungraded expert opinion recommendations. The guideline work group concluded that a comprehensive approach to risk assessment should replace decisions based on assessments of single risk factors in isolation. Original data analyses were undertaken to produce a "proof-in-concept" risk-prediction model for kidney failure to support a framework for quantitative risk assessment in the donor candidate evaluation and defensible shared decision making. This framework is grounded in the simultaneous consideration of each candidate's profile of demographic and health characteristics. The processes and framework for the donor candidate evaluation are presented, along with recommendations for optimal care before, during, and after donation. Limitations of the evidence are discussed, especially regarding the lack of definitive prospective studies and clinical outcome trials. Suggestions for future research, including the need for continued refinement of long-term risk prediction and novel approaches to estimating donation-attributable risks, are also provided.In citing this document, the following format should be used: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Living Kidney Donor Work Group. KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors. Transplantation. 2017;101(Suppl 8S):S1-S109.

Molecular detection of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil.

PubMed

Cezar, Renata Duarte da Silva; Lucena-Silva, Norma; Filho, Antônio Fernando Barbosa Batista; Borges, Jonas de Melo; de Oliveira, Pollyane Raysa Fernandes; Lúcio, Érica Chaves; Arruda-Lima, Maíra; Santana, Vania Lucia de Assis; Pinheiro Junior, José Wilton

2016-02-20

The present study aimed to direct detect Mycobacterium bovis in milk (n = 401) and blood (n = 401) samples collected from 401 dairy cows of 20 properties located in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, by real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) targeting the region of difference 4 (RD4). Risk factors possibly associated with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) were also evaluated. Of the 802 samples analyzed, one milk (0.25%) and eight blood (2%) samples were positive for M. bovis in the qPCR and their identities were confirmed by sequencing. Animals positive for M. bovis were found in six (30%) of the 20 properties visited. None of the risk factors evaluated were statistically associated with BTB. M. bovis DNA was detected in one milk sample what may pose a risk to public health because raw milk is commonly consumed in Brazil.

Using a quantitative risk register to promote learning from a patient safety reporting system.

PubMed

Mansfield, James G; Caplan, Robert A; Campos, John S; Dreis, David F; Furman, Cathie

2015-02-01

Patient safety reporting systems are now used in most health care delivery organizations. These systems, such as the one in use at Virginia Mason (Seattle) since 2002, can provide valuable reports of risk and harm from the front lines of patient care. In response to the challenge of how to quantify and prioritize safety opportunities, a risk register system was developed and implemented. Basic risk register concepts were refined to provide a systematic way to understand risks reported by staff. The risk register uses a comprehensive taxonomy of patient risk and algorithmically assigns each patient safety report to 1 of 27 risk categories in three major domains (Evaluation, Treatment, and Critical Interactions). For each category, a composite score was calculated on the basis of event rate, harm, and cost. The composite scores were used to identify the "top five" risk categories, and patient safety reports in these categories were analyzed in greater depth to find recurrent patterns of risk and associated opportunities for improvement. The top five categories of risk were easy to identify and had distinctive "profiles" of rate, harm, and cost. The ability to categorize and rank risks across multiple dimensions yielded insights not previously available. These results were shared with leadership and served as input for planning quality and safety initiatives. This approach provided actionable input for the strategic planning process, while at the same time strengthening the Virginia Mason culture of safety. The quantitative patient safety risk register serves as one solution to the challenge of extracting valuable safety lessons from large numbers of incident reports and could profitably be adopted by other organizations.

User embracement with risk classification in an emergency care unit: an evaluative study.

PubMed

Hermida, Patrícia Madalena Vieira; Nascimento, Eliane Regina Pereira do; Echevarría-Guanilo, Maria Elena; Brüggemann, Odaléa Maria; Malfussi, Luciana Bihain Hagemann de

2018-01-01

Objective Describing the evaluation of the Structure, Process and Outcome of User Embracement with Risk Classification of an Emergency Care Unit from the perspective of physicians and nurses. Method An evaluative, descriptive, quantitative study developed in Santa Catarina. Data were collected using a validated and adapted instrument consisting of 21 items distributed in the dimensions of Structure (facilities), Process (activities and relationships in providing care) and Outcome (care effects). In the analysis, descriptive statistics and the Mean Ranking and Mean Score calculations were applied. Results The sample consisted of 37 participants. From the 21 evaluated items, 11 (52.4%) had a Mean Ranking between 3 and 4, and none of them reached the maximum ranking (5 points). "Prioritization of severe cases" and "Primary care according to the severity of the case" reached a higher Mean Ranking (4.5), while "Flowchart discussion" had the lowest Ranking (2.1). The dimensions of Structure, Process and Outcome reached mean scores of 23.9, 21.9 and 25.5, respectively, indicating a Precarious evaluation (17.5 to 26.1 points). Conclusion User Embracement with Risk Classification is precarious, especially regarding the Process which obtained a lower satisfaction level from the participants.

The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

2013-11-01

Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

Effects of a Wilderness Program on Self-Esteem and Locus of Control Orientations of Young Adults. Summary of Thesis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bertolami, Cheryl

Quantitative data and descriptive data (written self-evaluation and journal entries) were collected from young adults participating in a standard 26-day Outward Bound course during a quasi-experimental control group design experiment to determine the degree to which participation in a high risk wilderness program leads to self-discovery,…

Evaluating analytic and risk assessment tools to estimate sediment and nutrients losses from agricultural lands in the southern region of the USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Non-point source pollution from agricultural fields is a critical problem associated with water quality impairment in the USA and a low-oxygen environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The use, development and enhancement of qualitative and quantitative models or tools for assessing agricultural runoff qua...

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

F167. ACCESS, UNDERSTAND, APPRAISE AND APPLY TO / OF HEALTH INFORMATION AND HEALTH LITERACY IN INDIVIDUALS AT-RISK FOR PSYCHOSIS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

PubMed Central

Seves, Mauro; Haidl, Theresa; Eggers, Susanne; Rostamzadeh, Ayda; Genske, Anna; Jünger, Saskia; Woopen, Christiane; Jessen, Frank; Ruhrmann, Stephan

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Numerous studies suggest that health literacy (HL) plays a crucial role in maintaining and improving individual health. Furthermore, empirical findings highlight the relation between levels of a person’s HL and clinical outcomes. So far, there are no reviews, which investigate HL in individuals at-risk for psychosis. The aim of the current review is to assess how individuals at risk of developing a first episode of psychosis gain access to, understand, evaluate and apply risk-related health information. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used to analyze and synthesize a variety of study types including qualitative and quantitative studies. Search strategy, screening and data selection have been carried out according to the PRISMA criteria. The systematic search was applied on peer-reviewed literature in PUBMED, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and Web of Science. Studies were included if participants met clinical high risk criteria (CHR), including the basic symptom criterion (BS) and the ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. The UHR criteria comprise the attenuated psychotic symptom criterion (APS), the brief limited psychotic symptom criterion (BLIPS) and the genetic risk and functional decline criterion (GRDP) Furthermore, studies must have used validated HL measures or any operationalization of the HL’s subdimensions (access, understanding, appraisal, decision-making or action) as a primary outcome. A third inclusion criterion comprised that the concept of HL or one of the four dimensions was mentioned in title or abstract. Data extraction and synthesis was implemented according to existing recommendations for appraising evidence from different study types. The quality of the included studies was evaluated and related to the study results. Results The search string returned 10587 papers. After data extraction 15 quantitative as well as 4 qualitative studies and 3 reviews were included. The Quality assessment evaluated 12 publications as “good”, 9 as “fair” and one paper as “poor”. Only one of the studies assessed HL with as primary outcome. In the other studies, the five different subdimensions of HL were investigated as a secondary outcome respectively mentioned in the paper. “Gaining Access” was examined in 18 of the 22 studies. “Understanding” has been assessed in 7 publications. “Appraise” was examined in 9 studies. “Apply decision making” and “Apply health behavior” were investigated in 1 of 8 studies. Since none of the included publications operationalized neither HL nor the subdimensions of HL with a validated measure, no explicit influencing factors could be found. Discussion Quantitative and qualitative evidence indicates that subjects at-risk for psychosis describe a lack of understanding about their state and fear stigmatization that might lead to dysfunctional coping strategies, such as ignoring and hiding symptoms. Affected subjects are eager to be informed about their condition and describe favoured channels for obtaining information. The internet, family members, school personnel and GP’s play a crucial role in gain access to, understand, evaluate and apply risk-related health information. The results clearly highlight that more research should be dedicated to HL in individuals at risk of developing a psychosis. Further studies should explore the relation between HL and clinical outcomes in this target population by assessing the underlining constructs with validated tools.

Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products.

PubMed

Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth; Mur, Lina

2017-01-01

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10-3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10-3 for ASF, and 2.5*10-3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10-4 for ASF, and 1.56*10-3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US.

Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products

PubMed Central

Herrera-Ibatá, Diana María; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Quijada, Darla; Burton, Kenneth

2017-01-01

The US livestock safety strongly depends on its capacity to prevent the introduction of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). Therefore, accurate and updated information on the location and origin of those potential TADs risks is essential, so preventive measures as market restrictions can be put on place. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the current risk of African swine fever (ASF) and Classical swine fever (CSF) introduction into the US through the legal importations of live pigs and swine products using a quantitative approach that could be later applied to other risks. Four quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were developed to estimate the monthly probabilities of ASF and CSF release into the US, and the exposure of susceptible populations (domestic and feral swine) to these introductions at state level. The results suggest a low annual probability of either ASF or CSF introduction into the US, by any of the analyzed pathways (5.5*10−3). Being the probability of introduction through legal imports of live pigs (1.8*10−3 for ASF, and 2.5*10−3 for CSF) higher than the risk of legally imported swine products (8.90*10−4 for ASF, and 1.56*10−3 for CSF). This could be caused due to the low probability of exposure associated with this type of commodity (products). The risk of feral pigs accessing to swine products discarded in landfills was slightly higher than the potential exposure of domestic pigs through swill feeding. The identification of the months at highest risk, the origin of the higher risk imports, and the location of the US states most vulnerable to those introductions (Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin for live swine and California, Florida and Texas for swine products), is valuable information that would help to design prevention, risk-mitigation and early-detection strategies that would help to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASF/CSF introductions into the US. PMID:28797058

Designing automation for human use: empirical studies and quantitative models.

PubMed

Parasuraman, R

2000-07-01

An emerging knowledge base of human performance research can provide guidelines for designing automation that can be used effectively by human operators of complex systems. Which functions should be automated and to what extent in a given system? A model for types and levels of automation that provides a framework and an objective basis for making such choices is described. The human performance consequences of particular types and levels of automation constitute primary evaluative criteria for automation design when using the model. Four human performance areas are considered--mental workload, situation awareness, complacency and skill degradation. Secondary evaluative criteria include such factors as automation reliability, the risks of decision/action consequences and the ease of systems integration. In addition to this qualitative approach, quantitative models can inform design. Several computational and formal models of human interaction with automation that have been proposed by various researchers are reviewed. An important future research need is the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Application of these models provides an objective basis for designing automation for effective human use.

Integrating service development with evaluation in telehealthcare: an ethnographic study.

PubMed

Finch, Tracy; May, Carl; Mair, Frances; Mort, Maggie; Gask, Linda

2003-11-22

To identify issues that facilitate the successful integration of evaluation and development of telehealthcare services. Ethnographic study using various qualitative research techniques to obtain data from several sources, including in-depth semistructured interviews, project steering group meetings, and public telehealthcare meetings. Seven telehealthcare evaluation projects (four randomised controlled trials and three pragmatic service evaluations) in the United Kingdom, studied over two years. Projects spanned a range of specialties-dermatology, psychiatry, respiratory medicine, cardiology, and oncology. Clinicians, managers, technical experts, and researchers involved in the projects. Key problems in successfully integrating evaluation and service development in telehealthcare are, firstly, defining existing clinical practices (and anticipating changes) in ways that permit measurement; secondly, managing additional workload and conflicting responsibilities brought about by combining clinical and research responsibilities (including managing risk); and, thirdly, understanding various perspectives on effectiveness and the limitations of evaluation results beyond the context of the research study. Combined implementation and evaluation of telehealthcare systems is complex, and is often underestimated. The distinction between quantitative outcomes and the workability of the system is important for producing evaluative knowledge that is of practical value. More pragmatic approaches to evaluation, that permit both quantitative and qualitative methods, are required to improve the quality of such research and its relevance for service provision in the NHS.

Prognostic Value of Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Sammut, Eva C; Villa, Adriana D M; Di Giovine, Gabriella; Dancy, Luke; Bosio, Filippo; Gibbs, Thomas; Jeyabraba, Swarna; Schwenke, Susanne; Williams, Steven E; Marber, Michael; Alfakih, Khaled; Ismail, Tevfik F; Razavi, Reza; Chiribiri, Amedeo

2018-05-01

This study sought to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of visual and quantitative perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) ischemic burden in an unselected group of patients and to assess the validity of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds extrapolated from nuclear studies. There are limited data on the prognostic value of assessing myocardial ischemic burden by CMR, and there are none using quantitative perfusion analysis. Patients with suspected coronary artery disease referred for adenosine-stress perfusion CMR were included (n = 395; 70% male; age 58 ± 13 years). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, aborted sudden death, and revascularization after 90 days. Perfusion scans were assessed visually and with quantitative analysis. Cross-validated Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement were used to assess the incremental prognostic value of visual or quantitative perfusion analysis over a baseline clinical model, initially as continuous covariates, then using accepted thresholds of ≥2 segments or ≥10% myocardium. After a median 460 days (interquartile range: 190 to 869 days) follow-up, 52 patients reached the primary endpoint. At 2 years, the addition of ischemic burden was found to increase prognostic value over a baseline model of age, sex, and late gadolinium enhancement (baseline model area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75; visual AUC: 0.84; quantitative AUC: 0.85). Dichotomized quantitative ischemic burden performed better than visual assessment (net reclassification improvement 0.043 vs. 0.003 against baseline model). This study was the first to address the prognostic benefit of quantitative analysis of perfusion CMR and to support the use of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds by perfusion CMR for prognostic evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Quantitative analysis provided incremental prognostic value to visual assessment and established risk factors, potentially representing an important step forward in the translation of quantitative CMR perfusion analysis to the clinical setting. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Yang, Ji Wu

Failures in the auxiliary feedwater (AFW) system of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) are considered to involve substantial risk whether a decision is made to either continue power operation while repair is being done, or to shut down the plant to undertake repairs. Technical specification action requirements usually require immediate plant shutdown in the case of multiple failures in the system (in some cases, immediate repair of one train is required when all AFW trains fail). This paper presents a probabilistic risk assessment-based method to quantitatively evaluate and compare both the risks of continued power operation and of shutting the plantmore » down, given known failures in the system. The method is applied to the AFW system for four different PWRs. Results show that the risk of continued power operation and plant shutdown both are substantial, but the latter is larger than the former over the usual repair time. This was proven for four plants with different designs: two operating Westinghouse plants, one operating Asea-Brown Boveri Combustion Engineering Plant, and one of evolutionary design. The method can be used to analyze individual plant design and to improve AFW action requirements using risk-informed evaluations.« less

Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

2008-11-15

The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens andmore » presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including dose-response studies in toxicology and pathology. Each of the public databases has been discussed in prior publications. They will be briefly described in the present report from the perspective of aggregating datasets to augment the data and information contained within them.« less

Low-dose CT for quantitative analysis in acute respiratory distress syndrome

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction The clinical use of serial quantitative computed tomography (CT) to characterize lung disease and guide the optimization of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is limited by the risk of cumulative radiation exposure and by the difficulties and risks related to transferring patients to the CT room. We evaluated the effects of tube current-time product (mAs) variations on quantitative results in healthy lungs and in experimental ARDS in order to support the use of low-dose CT for quantitative analysis. Methods In 14 sheep chest CT was performed at baseline and after the induction of ARDS via intravenous oleic acid injection. For each CT session, two consecutive scans were obtained applying two different mAs: 60 mAs was paired with 140, 15 or 7.5 mAs. All other CT parameters were kept unaltered (tube voltage 120 kVp, collimation 32 × 0.5 mm, pitch 0.85, matrix 512 × 512, pixel size 0.625 × 0.625 mm). Quantitative results obtained at different mAs were compared via Bland-Altman analysis. Results Good agreement was observed between 60 mAs and 140 mAs and between 60 mAs and 15 mAs (all biases less than 1%). A further reduction of mAs to 7.5 mAs caused an increase in the bias of poorly aerated and nonaerated tissue (-2.9% and 2.4%, respectively) and determined a significant widening of the limits of agreement for the same compartments (-10.5% to 4.8% for poorly aerated tissue and -5.9% to 10.8% for nonaerated tissue). Estimated mean effective dose at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 17.8, 7.4, 2.0 and 0.9 mSv, respectively. Image noise of scans performed at 140, 60, 15 and 7.5 mAs corresponded to 10, 16, 38 and 74 Hounsfield units, respectively. Conclusions A reduction of effective dose up to 70% has been achieved with minimal effects on lung quantitative results. Low-dose computed tomography provides accurate quantitative results and could be used to characterize lung compartment distribution and possibly monitor time-course of ARDS with a lower risk of exposure to ionizing radiation. A further radiation dose reduction is associated with lower accuracy in quantitative results. PMID:24004842

Mathematical modelling and quantitative methods.

PubMed

Edler, L; Poirier, K; Dourson, M; Kleiner, J; Mileson, B; Nordmann, H; Renwick, A; Slob, W; Walton, K; Würtzen, G

2002-01-01

The present review reports on the mathematical methods and statistical techniques presently available for hazard characterisation. The state of the art of mathematical modelling and quantitative methods used currently for regulatory decision-making in Europe and additional potential methods for risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet are described. Existing practices of JECFA, FDA, EPA, etc., are examined for their similarities and differences. A framework is established for the development of new and improved quantitative methodologies. Areas for refinement, improvement and increase of efficiency of each method are identified in a gap analysis. Based on this critical evaluation, needs for future research are defined. It is concluded from our work that mathematical modelling of the dose-response relationship would improve the risk assessment process. An adequate characterisation of the dose-response relationship by mathematical modelling clearly requires the use of a sufficient number of dose groups to achieve a range of different response levels. This need not necessarily lead to an increase in the total number of animals in the study if an appropriate design is used. Chemical-specific data relating to the mode or mechanism of action and/or the toxicokinetics of the chemical should be used for dose-response characterisation whenever possible. It is concluded that a single method of hazard characterisation would not be suitable for all kinds of risk assessments, and that a range of different approaches is necessary so that the method used is the most appropriate for the data available and for the risk characterisation issue. Future refinements to dose-response characterisation should incorporate more clearly the extent of uncertainty and variability in the resulting output.

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Bunn, Amoret

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale frommore » nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.« less

Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

2014-09-01

Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 217.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches Board-regulated institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from: (1...

12 CFR 324.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches FDIC-supervised institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from:(1...

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

A multisite assessment of the quantitative capabilities of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay.

PubMed

Blakemore, Robert; Nabeta, Pamela; Davidow, Amy L; Vadwai, Viral; Tahirli, Rasim; Munsamy, Vanisha; Nicol, Mark; Jones, Martin; Persing, David H; Hillemann, Doris; Ruesch-Gerdes, Sabine; Leisegang, Felicity; Zamudio, Carlos; Rodrigues, Camilla; Boehme, Catharina C; Perkins, Mark D; Alland, David

2011-11-01

The Xpert MTB/RIF is an automated molecular test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis that estimates bacterial burden by measuring the threshold-cycle (Ct) of its M. tuberculosis-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction. Bacterial burden is an important biomarker for disease severity, infection control risk, and response to therapy. Evaluate bacterial load quantitation by Xpert MTB/RIF compared with conventional quantitative methods. Xpert MTB/RIF results were compared with smear-microscopy, semiquantiative solid culture, and time-to-detection in liquid culture for 741 patients and 2,008 samples tested in a multisite clinical trial. An internal control real-time polymerase chain reaction was evaluated for its ability to identify inaccurate quantitative Xpert MTB/RIF results. Assays with an internal control Ct greater than 34 were likely to be inaccurately quantitated; this represented 15% of M. tuberculosis-positive tests. Excluding these, decreasing M. tuberculosis Ct was associated with increasing smear microscopy grade for smears of concentrated sputum pellets (r(s) = -0.77) and directly from sputum (r(s) =-0.71). A Ct cutoff of approximately 27.7 best predicted smear-positive status. The association between M. tuberculosis Ct and time-to-detection in liquid culture (r(s) = 0.68) and semiquantitative colony counts (r(s) = -0.56) was weaker than smear. Tests of paired same-patient sputum showed that high viscosity sputum samples contained ×32 more M. tuberculosis than nonviscous samples. Comparisons between the grade of the acid-fast bacilli smear and Xpert MTB/RIF quantitative data across study sites enabled us to identify a site outlier in microscopy. Xpert MTB/RIF quantitation offers a new, standardized approach to measuring bacterial burden in the sputum of patients with tuberculosis.

Inter- and intra-observer agreement of BI-RADS-based subjective visual estimation of amount of fibroglandular breast tissue with magnetic resonance imaging: comparison to automated quantitative assessment.

PubMed

Wengert, G J; Helbich, T H; Woitek, R; Kapetas, P; Clauser, P; Baltzer, P A; Vogl, W-D; Weber, M; Meyer-Baese, A; Pinker, Katja

2016-11-01

To evaluate the inter-/intra-observer agreement of BI-RADS-based subjective visual estimation of the amount of fibroglandular tissue (FGT) with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and to investigate whether FGT assessment benefits from an automated, observer-independent, quantitative MRI measurement by comparing both approaches. Eighty women with no imaging abnormalities (BI-RADS 1 and 2) were included in this institutional review board (IRB)-approved prospective study. All women underwent un-enhanced breast MRI. Four radiologists independently assessed FGT with MRI by subjective visual estimation according to BI-RADS. Automated observer-independent quantitative measurement of FGT with MRI was performed using a previously described measurement system. Inter-/intra-observer agreements of qualitative and quantitative FGT measurements were assessed using Cohen's kappa (k). Inexperienced readers achieved moderate inter-/intra-observer agreement and experienced readers a substantial inter- and perfect intra-observer agreement for subjective visual estimation of FGT. Practice and experience reduced observer-dependency. Automated observer-independent quantitative measurement of FGT was successfully performed and revealed only fair to moderate agreement (k = 0.209-0.497) with subjective visual estimations of FGT. Subjective visual estimation of FGT with MRI shows moderate intra-/inter-observer agreement, which can be improved by practice and experience. Automated observer-independent quantitative measurements of FGT are necessary to allow a standardized risk evaluation. • Subjective FGT estimation with MRI shows moderate intra-/inter-observer agreement in inexperienced readers. • Inter-observer agreement can be improved by practice and experience. • Automated observer-independent quantitative measurements can provide reliable and standardized assessment of FGT with MRI.

Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities.

PubMed

Spadoni, G; Egidi, D; Contini, S

2000-01-07

The paper first summarises the main aspects of the ARIPAR methodology whose steps can be applied to quantify the impact on a territory of major accident risks due to processing, storing and transporting dangerous substances. Then the capabilities of the new decision support tool ARIPAR-GIS, implementing the mentioned procedure, are described, together with its main features and types of results. These are clearly shown through a short description of the updated ARIPAR study (reference year 1994), in which the impact of changes due to industrial and transportation dynamics on the Ravenna territory in Italy were evaluated. The brief explanation of how results have been used by local administrations offers the opportunity to discuss about advantages of the quantitative area risk analysis tool in supporting activities of risk management, risk control and land-use planning.

Analyzing the impacts of global trade and investment on non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a critical review of methodological approaches used in quantitative analyses.

PubMed

Cowling, Krycia; Thow, Anne Marie; Pollack Porter, Keshia

2018-05-24

A key mechanism through which globalization has impacted health is the liberalization of trade and investment, yet relatively few studies to date have used quantitative methods to investigate the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors. Recent reviews of this literature have found heterogeneity in results and a range of quality across studies, which may be in part attributable to a lack of conceptual clarity and methodological inconsistencies. This study is a critical review of methodological approaches used in the quantitative literature on global trade and investment and diet, tobacco, alcohol, and related health outcomes, with the objective of developing recommendations and providing resources to guide future robust, policy relevant research. A review of reviews, expert review, and reference tracing were employed to identify relevant studies, which were evaluated using a novel quality assessment tool designed for this research. Eight review articles and 34 quantitative studies were identified for inclusion. Important ways to improve this literature were identified and discussed: clearly defining exposures of interest and not conflating trade and investment; exploring mechanisms of broader relationships; increasing the use of individual-level data; ensuring consensus and consistency in key confounding variables; utilizing more sector-specific versus economy-wide trade and investment indicators; testing and adequately adjusting for autocorrelation and endogeneity when using longitudinal data; and presenting results from alternative statistical models and sensitivity analyses. To guide the development of future analyses, recommendations for international data sources for selected trade and investment indicators, as well as key gaps in the literature, are presented. More methodologically rigorous and consistent approaches in future quantitative studies on the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors can help to resolve inconsistencies of existing research and generate useful information to guide policy decisions.

Operational models of infrastructure resilience.

PubMed

Alderson, David L; Brown, Gerald G; Carlyle, W Matthew

2015-04-01

We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system operation to represent the decisions of an infrastructure operator who guides the behavior of the system as a whole, even in the presence of disruptions. Modeling infrastructure operation in this way makes it possible to systematically evaluate the consequences associated with the loss of infrastructure components, and leads to a precise notion of "operational resilience" that facilitates model verification, validation, and reproducible results. Using a simple example of a notional infrastructure, we demonstrate how to use these models for (1) assessing the operational resilience of an infrastructure system, (2) identifying critical vulnerabilities that threaten its continued function, and (3) advising policymakers on investments to improve resilience. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prospective evaluation of a clinical guideline recommending hospital length of stay in upper gastrointestinal tract hemorrhage.

PubMed

Hay, J A; Maldonado, L; Weingarten, S R; Ellrodt, A G

Upper gastrointestinal tract hemorrhage (UGIH) is a common and potentially life-threatening disorder. Resource utilization can vary without adverse effect on patient outcome. Clinical practice guidelines are a potential solution to reduce variation in practice while improving patient outcomes. To validate prospectively the safety, acceptability, and impact of a clinical practice guideline defining the medically appropriate length of stay (LOS) for patients hospitalized with UGIH. Prospective, controlled time-series study with an alternate-month design. Outcome surveyors and patients were blinded to study group allocation. GUIDELINE: A retrospectively validated scoring system using 4 independent variables: hemodynamics, time from bleeding, comorbidity, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) findings to predict risk of adverse events. The quantitative risk for the low-risk subset was 0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.0%-2.0%) for subsequent complications and 0% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.9%) for life-threatening complications from this retrospective evaluation. A 1000-bed, not-for-profit, university-affiliated teaching hospital. Consecutive adult patients hospitalized for acute UGIH. Concurrent feedback of guideline recommendation (same-day hospital discharge) to physicians caring for patients at low risk for complication. No risk information was provided during control months. Seventy percent (209/299) of UGIH patients achieved low-risk status according to the guideline and were therefore potentially suitable for early discharge from the hospital. Providing real-time quantitative risk information (intervention group only) was associated with an increase in guideline compliance from 30% to 70% (P<.001) and a decrease in mean (SD) LOS from 4.6 (3.5) days to 2.9 (1.3) days (mean reduction of 1.7 days per patient; P<.001). No differences in complications, patient health status, or patient satisfaction were found when measured 1 month after discharge. An independent variable predicting decreased hospital LOS for low-risk UGIH patients was early EGD. Implementation of the clinical practice guideline safely reduced hospital LOS for selected low-risk patients with acute UGIH. Further prospective validation in other settings is warranted.

Utility of Gene Expression and Ex vivo Steroid Production in a 96 h Assay for Predicting Impacts of Endocrine Active Chemicals on Fish Reproduction.

EPA Science Inventory

Development of efficient test methods that can generate reliable data to inform risk assessment is an on-going challenge in the field of ecotoxicology. In the present study we evaluated whether a 96 h in vivo assay focused on a small number of quantitative real-time polymerase ch...

A quantitative microbial risk assessment for center pivot irrigation of dairy wastewaters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the western United States where livestock wastewaters are commonly land applied, there are concerns over individuals being exposed to airborne pathogens. In response, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate infectious risks from inhaling pathogens aerosolized dur...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

QUANTITATIVE CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY USING SHORT-TERM GENETIC BIOASSAYS: THE COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative risk assessment is fraught with many uncertainties. The validity of the assumptions underlying the methods employed are often difficult to test or validate. Cancer risk assessment has generally employed either human epidemiological data from relatively high occupatio...

75 FR 4067 - Release of Draft Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

... for public comment a second draft assessment document titled, Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for... quantitative analyses that are being conducted as part of the review of the national ambient air quality...-Focused Visibility Assessment--Second External Review Draft and Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for...

75 FR 39252 - Release of Final Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-08

..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter and Particulate Matter Urban-Focused Visibility Assessment. These two documents describe the quantitative analyses that have been conducted as part of the..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter, please contact Dr. Zachary Pekar, Office of Air...

Impaired functioning of immune defenses to infection in premature and term infants and their implications for vaccination.

PubMed

Baxter, David

2010-06-01

Newborn infants, particularly those born prematurely are at increased risk of infections, including vaccine preventable ones, resulting in an increased morbidity and mortality risk. Defects associated with higher mortality may involve external barriers and the innate and adaptive systems. The available evidence suggests a complex situation that ranges from pathogen/immunogen non-responsiveness to fully mature adult-equivalent functionality depending on both host and vaccine characteristics. This review considers potential qualitative and quantitative differences with respect to immune defences between premature/term infants and adults and evaluates implications of such differences for immunization outcomes.

[Characteristics of quantitative values of regional factors of exposure in the studied areas].

PubMed

Rakhmanin, Iu A; Shashina, T A; Ungurianu, T N; Novikov, S M; Skvortsova, N S; Matsiuk, A V; Legostaeva, T B; Antipanova, N A

2012-01-01

In the paper the results of a comparative evaluation of the Russian and the standard, recommended by US EPA, factors of population exposure in seven areas of different federal districts of Russia are presented. Concerning the adult population differences reach 3.5 times, for children (1-6 years) - 4.2 times. An example of the effect of regional differences and standard factors on levels of exposure and risk is considered. Promising areas for further research on regional factors to improve the accuracy and reliability of the forecast assessments of the risks to public health have been identified.

Evaluation of the "Respect Not Risk" firearm safety lesson for 3rd-graders.

PubMed

Liller, Karen D; Perrin, Karen; Nearns, Jodi; Pesce, Karen; Crane, Nancy B; Gonzalez, Robin R

2003-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the MORE HEALTH "Respect Not Risk" Firearm Safety Lesson for 3rd-graders in Pinellas County, Florida. Six schools representative of various socioeconomic levels were selected as the test sites. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected. A total of 433 matched pretests/posttests were used to determine the effectiveness of the class in increasing student knowledge about firearm safety. The results revealed a significant increase in the mean scores on the posttest compared with the pretest. Qualitative findings showed the lesson was positively received by both students and teachers, and 65% of responding students reported discussing the lesson with family members. School nurses are encouraged to take a leading role in promoting firearm injury prevention to students.

Evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment of clinical trials.

PubMed

Kerr, Kathleen F; Roth, Jeremy; Zhu, Kehao; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Meisner, Allison; Wilson, Francis Perry; Coca, Steven; Parikh, Chirag R

2017-12-01

A potential use of biomarkers is to assist in prognostic enrichment of clinical trials, where only patients at relatively higher risk for an outcome of interest are eligible for the trial. We investigated methods for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment. We identified five key considerations when considering a biomarker and a screening threshold for prognostic enrichment: (1) clinical trial sample size, (2) calendar time to enroll the trial, (3) total patient screening costs and the total per-patient trial costs, (4) generalizability of trial results, and (5) ethical evaluation of trial eligibility criteria. Items (1)-(3) are amenable to quantitative analysis. We developed the Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment at varying levels of screening stringency. We demonstrate that both modestly prognostic and strongly prognostic biomarkers can improve trial metrics using Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool. Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool is available as a webtool at http://prognosticenrichment.com and as a package for the R statistical computing platform. In some clinical settings, even biomarkers with modest prognostic performance can be useful for prognostic enrichment. In addition to the quantitative analysis provided by Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool, investigators must consider the generalizability of trial results and evaluate the ethics of trial eligibility criteria.

Characterization of specimens obtained by different sampling methods for evaluation of periodontal bacteria.

PubMed

Okada, Ayako; Sogabe, Kaoru; Takeuchi, Hiroaki; Okamoto, Masaaki; Nomura, Yoshiaki; Hanada, Nobuhiro

2017-12-27

Quantitative analysis of periodontal bacteria is considered useful for clinical diagnosis, evaluation and assessment of the risk of periodontal disease. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of sampling of saliva, supragingival and subgingival plaque for evaluation of periodontal bacteria. From each of 12 subjects, i) subgingival plaque was collected from the deepest pocket using a sterile paper point, ii) stimulated whole saliva was collected after chewing gum, and iii) supragingival plaque was collected using a tooth brush. These samples were sent to the medical examination laboratory for quantitative analysis of the counts of three periodontal bacterial species: Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola, and Tannerella forsythia. The proportions of these bacteria in subgingival plaque were higher than those in saliva or supragingival plaque, but lower in subgingival plaque than in saliva or supragingival plaque. In several cases, periodontal bacteria were below the levels of detection in subgingival plaque. We concluded that samples taken from subgingival plaque may be more useful for evaluating the proportion of periodontal bacteria in deep pockets than is the case for other samples. Therefore, for evaluation of periodontal bacteria, clinicians should consider the characteristics of the specimens obtained using different sampling methods.

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning.

PubMed

Urata, Junji; Pel, Adam J

2018-05-01

Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

The Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model: a risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Austin, R Marshall; Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J

2010-05-01

Evaluation of cervical cancer screening has grown increasingly complex with the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and newer screening technologies approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. To create a unique Pittsburgh Cervical Cancer Screening Model (PCCSM) that quantifies risk for histopathologic cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 2, CIN3, and adenocarcinoma in situ) and cervical cancer in an environment predominantly using newer screening technologies. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network consisting of 19 variables available in the laboratory information system, including patient history data (most recent HPV vaccination data), Papanicolaou test results, high-risk HPV results, procedure data, and histopathologic results. The model's graphic structure was based on the published literature. Results from 375 441 patient records from 2005 through 2008 were used to build and train the model. Additional data from 45 930 patients were used to test the model. The PCCSM compares risk quantitatively over time for histopathologically verifiable CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients for each current cytology result category and for each HPV result. For each current cytology result, HPV test results affect risk; however, the degree of cytologic abnormality remains the largest positive predictor of risk. Prior history also alters the CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer risk for patients with common current cytology and HPV test results. The PCCSM can also generate negative risk projections, estimating the likelihood of the absence of histopathologic CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, and cervical cancer in screened patients. The PCCSM is a dynamic Bayesian network that computes quantitative cervical disease risk estimates for patients undergoing cervical screening. Continuously updatable with current system data, the PCCSM provides a new tool to monitor cervical disease risk in the evolving postvaccination era.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

2009-07-01

Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

On the Health Risk of the Lumbar Spine due to Whole-Body VIBRATION—THEORETICAL Approach, Experimental Data and Evaluation of Whole-Body Vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, H.; Blüthner, R.; Hinz, B.; Schust, M.

1998-08-01

The guidance on the effects of vibration on health in standards for whole-body vibration (WBV) does not provide quantitative relationships between WBV and health risk. The paper aims at the elucidation of exposure-response relationships. An analysis of published data on the static and dynamic strength of vertebrae and bone, loaded with various frequencies under different conditions, provided the basis for a theoretical approach to evaluate repetitive loads on the lumbar spine (“internal loads”). The approach enabled the calculation of “equivalent”—with respect to cumulative fatigue failure—combinations of amplitudes and numbers of internal cyclic stress. In order to discover the relation between external peak accelerations at the seat and internal peak loads, biodynamic data of experiments (36 subjects, three somatotypes, two different postures—relaxed and bent forward; random WBV,aw, r.m.s. 1·4 ms-2, containing high transients) were used as input to a biomechanical model. Internal pressure changes were calculated using individual areas of vertebral endplates. The assessment of WBV was based on the quantitative relations between peak accelerations at the seat and pressures predicted for the disk L5/S1. For identical exposures clearly higher rates of pressure rise in the bent forward compared to the relaxed posture were predicted. The risk assessment for internal forces considered the combined internal static and dynamic loads, in relation to the predicted individual strength, and Miner's hypothesis. For exposure durations between 1 min and 8 h, energy equivalent vibration magnitudes (formula B.1, ISO 2631-1, 1997) and equivalent vibration magnitudes according to formula B.2 (time dependence over-energetic) were compared with equivalent combinations of upward peak accelerations and exposure durations according to predicted cumulative fatigue failures of lumbar vertebrae. Formula B.1 seems to underestimate the health risk caused by high magnitudes, formula B.2 is recommended for the evaluation of such conditions.

Optimizing oncology therapeutics through quantitative translational and clinical pharmacology: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Venkatakrishnan, K; Friberg, L E; Ouellet, D; Mettetal, J T; Stein, A; Trocóniz, I F; Bruno, R; Mehrotra, N; Gobburu, J; Mould, D R

2015-01-01

Despite advances in biomedical research that have deepened our understanding of cancer hallmarks, resulting in the discovery and development of targeted therapies, the success rates of oncology drug development remain low. Opportunities remain for objective dose selection informed by exposure-response understanding to optimize the benefit-risk balance of novel therapies for cancer patients. This review article discusses the principles and applications of modeling and simulation approaches across the lifecycle of development of oncology therapeutics. Illustrative examples are used to convey the value gained from integration of quantitative clinical pharmacology strategies from the preclinical-translational phase through confirmatory clinical evaluation of efficacy and safety. © 2014 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Quantitative polymerase chain reaction detection of circulating DNA in serum for early diagnosis of mucormycosis in immunocompromised patients.

PubMed

Millon, Laurence; Larosa, Fabrice; Lepiller, Quentin; Legrand, Faezeh; Rocchi, Steffi; Daguindau, Etienne; Scherer, Emeline; Bellanger, Anne-Pauline; Leroy, Joel; Grenouillet, Frederic

2013-05-01

The aim of our study was to assess the detection of circulating DNA from the most common species of Mucorales for early diagnosis of mucormycosis in at-risk patients. We retrospectively evaluated a combination of 3 quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays using hydrolysis probes targeting Mucor/Rhizopus, Lichtheimia (formerly Absidia), and Rhizomucor for circulating Mucorales detection. Serial serum samples from 10 patients diagnosed with proven mucormycosis (2-9 samples per patient) were analyzed. No cross-reactivity was detected in the 3 qPCR assays using 19 reference strains of opportunistic fungi, and the limit of detection ranged from 3.7 to 15 femtograms/10 µL, depending on the species. DNA from Mucorales was detected in the serum of 9 of 10 patients between 68 and 3 days before mucormycosis diagnosis was confirmed by histopathological examination and/or positive culture. All the qPCR results were concordant with culture and/or PCR-based identification of the causing agents in tissue (Lichtheimia species, Rhizomucor species, and Mucor/Rhizopus species in 4, 3, and 2 patients, respectively). Quantitative PCR was negative in only 1 patient with proven disseminated mucormycosis caused by Lichtheimia species. Our study suggests that using specific qPCR targeting several species of Mucorales according to local ecology to screen at-risk patients could be useful in a clinical setting. The cost and efficacy of this strategy should be evaluated. However, given the human and economic cost of mucormycosis and the need for rapid diagnosis to initiate prompt directed antifungal therapy, this strategy could be highly attractive.

Prediction of trabecular bone qualitative properties using scanning quantitative ultrasound

PubMed Central

Qin, Yi-Xian; Lin, Wei; Mittra, Erik; Xia, Yi; Cheng, Jiqi; Judex, Stefan; Rubin, Clint; Müller, Ralph

2012-01-01

Microgravity induced bone loss represents a critical health problem in astronauts, particularly occurred in weight-supporting skeleton, which leads to osteopenia and increase of fracture risk. Lack of suitable evaluation modality makes it difficult for monitoring skeletal status in long term space mission and increases potential risk of complication. Such disuse osteopenia and osteoporosis compromise trabecular bone density, and architectural and mechanical properties. While X-ray based imaging would not be practical in space, quantitative ultrasound may provide advantages to characterize bone density and strength through wave propagation in complex trabecular structure. This study used a scanning confocal acoustic diagnostic and navigation system (SCAN) to evaluate trabecular bone quality in 60 cubic trabecular samples harvested from adult sheep. Ultrasound image based SCAN measurements in structural and strength properties were validated by μCT and compressive mechanical testing. This result indicated a moderately strong negative correlations observed between broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) and μCT-determined bone volume fraction (BV/TV, R2=0.53). Strong correlations were observed between ultrasound velocity (UV) and bone’s mechanical strength and structural parameters, i.e., bulk Young’s modulus (R2=0.67) and BV/TV (R2=0.85). The predictions for bone density and mechanical strength were significantly improved by using a linear combination of both BUA and UV, yielding R2=0.92 for BV/TV and R2=0.71 for bulk Young’s modulus. These results imply that quantitative ultrasound can characterize trabecular structural and mechanical properties through measurements of particular ultrasound parameters, and potentially provide an excellent estimation for bone’s structural integrity. PMID:23976803

Prediction of trabecular bone qualitative properties using scanning quantitative ultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yi-Xian; Lin, Wei; Mittra, Erik; Xia, Yi; Cheng, Jiqi; Judex, Stefan; Rubin, Clint; Müller, Ralph

2013-11-01

Microgravity induced bone loss represents a critical health problem in astronauts, particularly occurred in weight-supporting skeleton, which leads to osteopenia and increase of fracture risk. Lack of suitable evaluation modality makes it difficult for monitoring skeletal status in long term space mission and increases potential risk of complication. Such disuse osteopenia and osteoporosis compromise trabecular bone density, and architectural and mechanical properties. While X-ray based imaging would not be practical in space, quantitative ultrasound may provide advantages to characterize bone density and strength through wave propagation in complex trabecular structure. This study used a scanning confocal acoustic diagnostic and navigation system (SCAN) to evaluate trabecular bone quality in 60 cubic trabecular samples harvested from adult sheep. Ultrasound image based SCAN measurements in structural and strength properties were validated by μCT and compressive mechanical testing. This result indicated a moderately strong negative correlations observed between broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) and μCT-determined bone volume fraction (BV/TV, R2=0.53). Strong correlations were observed between ultrasound velocity (UV) and bone's mechanical strength and structural parameters, i.e., bulk Young's modulus (R2=0.67) and BV/TV (R2=0.85). The predictions for bone density and mechanical strength were significantly improved by using a linear combination of both BUA and UV, yielding R2=0.92 for BV/TV and R2=0.71 for bulk Young's modulus. These results imply that quantitative ultrasound can characterize trabecular structural and mechanical properties through measurements of particular ultrasound parameters, and potentially provide an excellent estimation for bone's structural integrity.

TOXNET: Toxicology Data Network

MedlinePlus

... 4. Supporting Data for Carcinogenicity Expand II.B. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Oral Exposure II. ... of Confidence (Carcinogenicity, Oral Exposure) Expand II.C. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Inhalation Exposure II. ...

Considerations in deriving quantitative cancer criteria for inorganic arsenic exposure via inhalation.

PubMed

Lewis, Ari S; Beyer, Leslie A; Zu, Ke

2015-01-01

The inhalation unit risk (IUR) that currently exists in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System was developed in 1984 based on studies examining the relationship between respiratory cancer and arsenic exposure in copper smelters from two US locations: the copper smelter in Anaconda, Montana, and the American Smelting And Refining COmpany (ASARCO) smelter in Tacoma, Washington. Since US EPA last conducted its assessment, additional data have become available from epidemiology and mechanistic studies. In addition, the California Air Resources Board, Texas Commission of Environmental Quality, and Dutch Expert Committee on Occupational Safety have all conducted new risk assessments. All three analyses, which calculated IURs based on respiratory/lung cancer mortality, generated IURs that are lower (i.e., less restrictive) than the current US EPA value of 4.3×10(-3) (μg/m(3))(-1). The IURs developed by these agencies, which vary more than 20-fold, are based on somewhat different studies and use different methodologies to address uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Despite these differences, all were developed based on a cumulative exposure metric assuming a low-dose linear dose-response relationship. In this paper, we contrast and compare the analyses conducted by these agencies and critically evaluate strengths and limitations inherent in the data and methodologies used to develop quantitative risk estimates. In addition, we consider how these data could be best used to assess risk at much lower levels of arsenic in air, such as those experienced by the general public. Given that the mode of action for arsenic supports a threshold effect, and epidemiological evidence suggests that the arsenic concentration in air is a reliable predictor of lung/respiratory cancer risk, we developed a quantitative cancer risk analysis using a nonlinear threshold model. Applying a nonlinear model to occupational data, we established points of departure based on both cumulative exposure (μg/m(3)-years) to arsenic and arsenic concentration (μg/m(3)) via inhalation. Using these values, one can assess the lifetime risk of respiratory cancer mortality associated with ambient air concentrations of arsenic for the general US population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

The serotonin transporter 5-HTTPR polymorphism is associated with current and lifetime depression in persons with chronic psychotic disorders.

PubMed

Contreras, J; Hare, L; Camarena, B; Glahn, D; Dassori, A; Medina, R; Contreras, S; Ramirez, M; Armas, R; Munoz, R; Mendoza, R; Raventos, H; Ontiveros, A; Nicolini, H; Palmer, R; Escamilla, M

2009-02-01

Variation in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) promoter region has been shown to influence depression in persons who have been exposed to a number of stressful life events. We evaluated whether genetic variation in 5-HTTLPR, influences current depression, lifetime history of depression and quantitative measures of depression in persons with chronic psychotic disorders. This is an association study of a genetic variant with quantitative and categorical definitions of depression conducted in the southwest US, Mexico and Costa Rica. We analyzed 260 subjects with a history of psychosis, from a sample of 129 families. We found that persons carrying at least one short allele had a statistically significant increased lifetime risk for depressive syndromes (P < 0.02, odds ratio 2.18, 95% CI 1.10-4.20). The 'ss' or 'sl' genotype at the 5-HTTLPR promoter polymorphic locus increases the risk of psychotic individuals to develop major depression during the course of their illness.

Aquatic toxicity of acrylates and methacrylates: quantitative structure-activity relationships based on Kow and LC50

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reinert, K.H.

1987-12-01

Recent EPA scrutiny of acrylate and methacrylate monomers has resulted in restrictive consent orders and Significant New Use Rules under the Toxic Substances Control Act, based on structure-activity relationships using mouse skin painting studies. The concern is centered on human health issues regarding worker and consumer exposure. Environmental issues, such as aquatic toxicity, are still of concern. Understanding the relationships and environmental risks to aquatic organisms may improve the understanding of the potential risks to human health. This study evaluates the quantitative structure-activity relationships from measured log Kow's and log LC50's for Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow) and Carassius auratus (goldfish).more » Scientific support of the current regulations is also addressed. Two monomer classes were designated: acrylates and methacrylates. Spearman rank correlation and linear regression were run. Based on this study, an ecotoxicological difference exists between acrylates and methacrylates. Regulatory activities and scientific study should reflect this difference.« less

Mental Health and Resilience in HIV/AIDS-Affected Children: A Review of the Literature and Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

Betancourt, T.S.; Meyers-Ohki, S.E.; Charrow, A.; Hansen, N.

2012-01-01

Background To date, research on mental health in HIV-affected children (children who have an HIV-positive caregiver or live with the virus themselves) has focused on risk factors associated with the disease. However, simultaneous identification of factors that contribute to resilience in the face of risks is also needed. A greater understanding of modifiable protective processes that contribute to resilience in the mental health of children affected by HIV can inform the design of interventions that bolster naturally-occurring supports and contribute to early prevention or better management of risks. Methods We reviewed the recent literature on mental health and resilience in children and adolescents affected by HIV/AIDS. Literature searches of PsycInfo and PubMed were conducted during July-December 2011 consistent with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) standards. Qualitative and quantitative studies were included for review if primary research questions pertained to mental health and coping or protective processes in children and families affected by HIV/AIDS. All studies subject to full review were evaluated for quality using a modified Systematic Assessment of Quality in Observational Research (SAQOR) rating system. Results 171 unique studies were returned from online searches of the literature and bibliography mining. Of these, 29 were evaluated as pertaining directly to mental health and resilience in families and children living with HIV/AIDS. Eight studies presented qualitative analyses. Ten quantitative studies examined individual resources contributing to child resilience and four quantitative studies looked at family-level resources. Ten studies also investigated community-level interactions. Four presented findings from resilience-focused interventions. Conclusions There is a clear need for rigorous research on mental health and resilience in HIV-affected children and adolescents. The evidence base would greatly benefit from more standardized and robust approaches to thinking about resilience from an ecological perspective inclusive of resources at multiple levels and their interactions. PMID:22943414

Visual and Quantitative Assessment of Coronary Stenoses at Angiography Versus Fractional Flow Reserve: The Impact of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Adjedj, Julien; Xaplanteris, Panagiotis; Toth, Gabor; Ferrara, Angela; Pellicano, Mariano; Ciccarelli, Giovanni; Floré, Vincent; Barbato, Emanuele; De Bruyne, Bernard

2017-07-01

The correlation between angiographic assessment of coronary stenoses and fractional flow reserve (FFR) is weak. Whether and how risk factors impact the diagnostic accuracy of angiography is unknown. We sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of angiography by visual estimate and by quantitative coronary angiography when compared with FFR and evaluate the influence of risk factors (RF) on this accuracy. In 1382 coronary stenoses (1104 patients), percent diameter stenosis by visual estimation (DS VE ) and by quantitative coronary angiography (DS QCA ) was compared with FFR. Patients were divided into 4 subgroups, according to the presence of RFs, and the relationship between DS VE , DS QCA , and FFR was analyzed. Overall, DS VE was significantly higher than DS QCA ( P <0.0001); nonetheless, when examined by strata of DS, DS VE was significantly smaller than DS QCA in mild stenoses, although the reverse held true for severe stenoses. Compared with FFR, a large scatter was observed for both DS VE and DS QCA . When using a dichotomous FFR value of 0.80, C statistic was significantly higher for DS VE than for DS QCA (0.712 versus 0.640, respectively; P <0.001). C statistics for DS VE decreased progressively as RFs accumulated (0.776 for ≤1 RF, 0.750 for 2 RFs, 0.713 for 3 RFs and 0.627 for ≥4 RFs; P =0.0053). In addition, in diabetics, the relationship between FFR and angiographic indices was particularly weak (C statistics: 0.524 for DS VE and 0.511 for DS QCA ). Overall, DS VE has a better diagnostic accuracy than DS QCA to predict the functional significance of coronary stenosis. The predictive accuracy of angiography is moderate in patients with ≤1 RFs, but weakens as RFs accumulate, especially in diabetics. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A New Approach in Applying Systems Engineering Tools and Analysis to Determine Hepatocyte Toxicogenomics Risk Levels to Human Health.

PubMed

Gigrich, James; Sarkani, Shahryar; Holzer, Thomas

2017-03-01

There is an increasing backlog of potentially toxic compounds that cannot be evaluated with current animal-based approaches in a cost-effective and expeditious manner, thus putting human health at risk. Extrapolation of animal-based test results for human risk assessment often leads to different physiological outcomes. This article introduces the use of quantitative tools and methods from systems engineering to evaluate the risk of toxic compounds by the analysis of the amount of stress that human hepatocytes undergo in vitro when metabolizing GW7647 1 over extended times and concentrations. Hepatocytes are exceedingly connected systems that make it challenging to understand the highly varied dimensional genomics data to determine risk of exposure. Gene expression data of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-α (PPARα) 2 binding was measured over multiple concentrations and varied times of GW7647 exposure and leveraging mahalanombis distance to establish toxicity threshold risk levels. The application of these novel systems engineering tools provides new insight into the intricate workings of human hepatocytes to determine risk threshold levels from exposure. This approach is beneficial to decision makers and scientists, and it can help reduce the backlog of untested chemical compounds due to the high cost and inefficiency of animal-based models.

Integrating service development with evaluation in telehealthcare: an ethnographic study

PubMed Central

Finch, Tracy; May, Carl; Mair, Frances; Mort, Maggie; Gask, Linda

2003-01-01

Objectives To identify issues that facilitate the successful integration of evaluation and development of telehealthcare services. Design Ethnographic study using various qualitative research techniques to obtain data from several sources, including in-depth semistructured interviews, project steering group meetings, and public telehealthcare meetings. Setting Seven telehealthcare evaluation projects (four randomised controlled trials and three pragmatic service evaluations) in the United Kingdom, studied over two years. Projects spanned a range of specialties—dermatology, psychiatry, respiratory medicine, cardiology, and oncology. Participants Clinicians, managers, technical experts, and researchers involved in the projects. Results and discussion Key problems in successfully integrating evaluation and service development in telehealthcare are, firstly, defining existing clinical practices (and anticipating changes) in ways that permit measurement; secondly, managing additional workload and conflicting responsibilities brought about by combining clinical and research responsibilities (including managing risk); and, thirdly, understanding various perspectives on effectiveness and the limitations of evaluation results beyond the context of the research study. Conclusions Combined implementation and evaluation of telehealthcare systems is complex, and is often underestimated. The distinction between quantitative outcomes and the workability of the system is important for producing evaluative knowledge that is of practical value. More pragmatic approaches to evaluation, that permit both quantitative and qualitative methods, are required to improve the quality of such research and its relevance for service provision in the NHS. PMID:14630758

Temporal assessment of radiomic features on clinical mammography in a high-risk population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Lan, Li; Chan, Chun-Wai; King, Lauren M.; Tayob, Nabihah; Whitman, Gary; El-Zein, Randa; Bedrosian, Isabelle; Giger, Maryellen L.

2018-02-01

Extraction of high-dimensional quantitative data from medical images has become necessary in disease risk assessment, diagnostics and prognostics. Radiomic workflows for mammography typically involve a single medical image for each patient although medical images may exist for multiple imaging exams, especially in screening protocols. Our study takes advantage of the availability of mammograms acquired over multiple years for the prediction of cancer onset. This study included 841 images from 328 patients who developed subsequent mammographic abnormalities, which were confirmed as either cancer (n=173) or non-cancer (n=155) through diagnostic core needle biopsy. Quantitative radiomic analysis was conducted on antecedent FFDMs acquired a year or more prior to diagnostic biopsy. Analysis was limited to the breast contralateral to that in which the abnormality arose. Novel metrics were used to identify robust radiomic features. The most robust features were evaluated in the task of predicting future malignancies on a subset of 72 subjects (23 cancer cases and 49 non-cancer controls) with mammograms over multiple years. Using linear discriminant analysis, the robust radiomic features were merged into predictive signatures by: (i) using features from only the most recent contralateral mammogram, (ii) change in feature values between mammograms, and (iii) ratio of feature values over time, yielding AUCs of 0.57 (SE=0.07), 0.63 (SE=0.06), and 0.66 (SE=0.06), respectively. The AUCs for temporal radiomics (ratio) statistically differed from chance, suggesting that changes in radiomics over time may be critical for risk assessment. Overall, we found that our two-stage process of robustness assessment followed by performance evaluation served well in our investigation on the role of temporal radiomics in risk assessment.

Detection of hemoplasma infection of goats by use of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay and risk factor analysis for infection.

PubMed

Johnson, Kathy A; do Nascimento, Naíla C; Bauer, Amy E; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Hammac, G Kenitra; Messick, Joanne B

2016-08-01

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the detection and quantification of Mycoplasma ovis in goats and investigate the prevalence and risk factors for hemoplasma infection of goats located in Indiana. ANIMALS 362 adult female goats on 61 farms. PROCEDURES Primers were designed for amplification of a fragment of the dnaK gene of M ovis by use of a qPCR assay. Blood samples were collected into EDTA-containing tubes for use in total DNA extraction, blood film evaluation, and determination of PCV. Limit of detection, intra-assay variability, interassay variability, and specificity of the assay were determined. RESULTS Reaction efficiency of the qPCR assay was 94.45% (R(2), 0.99; slope, -3.4623), and the assay consistently detected as few as 10 copies of plasmid/reaction. Prevalence of infection in goats on the basis of results for the qPCR assay was 18.0% (95% confidence interval, 14% to 22%), with infected goats ranging from 1 to 14 years old, whereby 61% (95% confidence interval, 47% to 73%) of the farms had at least 1 infected goat. Bacterial load in goats infected with M ovis ranged from 1.05 × 10(3) target copies/mL of blood to 1.85 × 10(5) target copies/mL of blood; however, no bacteria were observed on blood films. Production use of a goat was the only risk factor significantly associated with hemoplasma infection. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The qPCR assay was more sensitive for detecting hemoplasma infection than was evaluation of a blood film, and production use of a goat was a risk factor for infection.

Assessing return on investment of defined-population disease management interventions.

PubMed

Wilson, Thomas W; Gruen, Jeff; William, Thar; Fetterolf, Donald; Minalkumar, Patel; Popiel, Richard G; Lewis, Al; Nash, David B

2004-11-01

Strategies to reduce health expenditures through the improvement of health and quality of care are in high demand. A group of experts formed a nonpartisan, independent work group, under the sponsorship of the National Managed Health Care Congress. Its goal was to establish a list of easy-to-understand, actionable, and usable recommendations to enable disease management program advocates to conduct basic-level evaluations. The work group made recommendations concerning identification of reference and intervention population, population definitions, quantitative methods and data quality, confounding and bias, and stakeholder agreements/contracting. A case study was created to quantitatively illustrate some of the major issues raised by the work group. Five typical errors were simulated by applying different rules to the intervention population than to the reference population: differential inclusion (high versus low risk), differential exclusion (high versus low risk) and differential claims run-out. Compared with the true impact, four of the five errors resulted in a bias toward "intervention effect," while one (differential inclusion of high-risk patients) was biased against the "intervention effect." The direction and magnitude of the bias in natural settings will not necessarily follow this pattern.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Hollaender, R; Hartl, F; Krieg, M-A; Tyndall, A; Geuckel, C; Buitrago-Tellez, C; Manghani, M; Kraenzlin, M; Theiler, R; Hans, D

2009-03-01

Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and quantitative analysis of patients with crowned dens syndrome.

PubMed

Takahashi, Teruyuki; Tamura, Masato; Takasu, Toshiaki; Kamei, Satoshi

2017-05-15

Crowned dens syndrome (CDS) is a radioclinical entity defined by calcium deposition on the transverse ligament of atlas (TLA). In this study, the novel semi-quantitative diagnostic criteria for CDS to evaluate the degree of calcification on TLA by cervical CT are proposed. From January 2010 to September 2014, 35 patients who were diagnosed with CDS by cervical CT were adopted as subjects in this study. Based on novel criteria, calcium deposition on TLA was classified into "Stage" and "Grade", to make a score, which was evaluated semi-quantitatively. The correlation between calcification score and CRP level or pain score, and the effects of treatments, such as NSAIDs and corticosteroids, were statistically analyzed. The total calcification score from added "Stage" and "Grade" scores demonstrated a significantly strong and linear correlation with CRP level (R 2 =0.823, **p<0.01). In the multiple comparison test for the treatment effects, significant improvement of the CRP level and pain score were demonstrated after corticosteroid therapy (**p<0.01) compared with NSAIDs. In the conditional logistic regression analysis, the rapid end of corticosteroid therapy was an independent risk factor for relapse of cervico-occipital pain [OR=50.761, *p=0.0419]. The degree of calcification on TLA evaluated by the novel semi-quantitative criteria significantly correlated with CRP level. In the treatment of CDS, it is recommended that a low dosage (15-30mg) of corticosteroids be used as first-line drugs rather than conventional NSAID therapy. Additionally, it is also recommended to gradually decrease the dosage of corticosteroids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carotid lesion characterization by synthetic-aperture-imaging techniques with multioffset ultrasonic probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capineri, Lorenzo; Castellini, Guido; Masotti, Leonardo F.; Rocchi, Santina

1992-06-01

This paper explores the applications of a high-resolution imaging technique to vascular ultrasound diagnosis, with emphasis on investigation of the carotid vessel. With the present diagnostic systems, it is difficult to measure quantitatively the extension of the lesions and to characterize the tissue; quantitative images require enough spatial resolution and dynamic to reveal fine high-risk pathologies. A broadband synthetic aperture technique with multi-offset probes is developed to improve the lesion characterization by the evaluation of local scattering parameters. This technique works with weak scatterers embedded in a constant velocity medium, large aperture, and isotropic sources and receivers. The features of this technique are: axial and lateral spatial resolution of the order of the wavelength, high dynamic range, quantitative measurements of the size and scattering intensity of the inhomogeneities, and capabilities of investigation of inclined layer. The evaluation of the performances in real condition is carried out by a software simulator in which different experimental situations can be reproduced. Images of simulated anatomic test-objects are presented. The images are obtained with an inversion process of the synthesized ultrasonic signals, collected on the linear aperture by a limited number of finite size transducers.

A prospective study of a quantitative PCR ELISA assay for the diagnosis of CMV pneumonia in lung and heart-transplant recipients.

PubMed

Barber, L; Egan, J J; Lomax, J; Haider, Y; Yonan, N; Woodcock, A A; Turner, A J; Fox, A J

2000-08-01

Qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the identification of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection has a low predictive value for the identification of CMV pneumonia. This study prospectively evaluated the application of a quantitative PCR Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA) assay in 9 lung- and 18 heart-transplant recipients who did not receive ganciclovir prophylaxis. DNA was collected from peripheral blood polymorphonuclear leucocytes (PMNL) posttransplantation. Oligonucleotide primers for the glycoprotein B gene (149 bp) were used in a PCR ELISA assay using an internal standard for quantitation. CMV disease was defined as histological evidence of end organ damage. The median level CMV genome equivalents in patients with CMV disease was 2665/2 x 10(5) PMNL (range 1,200 to 61,606) compared to 100 x 10(5) PMNL (range 20 to 855) with infection but no CMV disease (p = 0.036). All patients with CMV disease had genome equivalents levels of >1200/2 x 10(5) PMNL. A cut-off level of 1,200 PMNL had a positive predictive value for CMV disease of 100% and a negative predictive value of 100%. The first detection of levels of CMV genome equivalents above a level of 1200/2 x 10(5) PMNL was at a median of 58 days (range 47 to 147) posttransplant. Quantitative PCR assays for the diagnosis of CMV infection may predict patients at risk of CMV disease and thereby direct preemptive treatment to high-risk patients.

Cis-eQTL analysis and functional validation of candidate susceptibility genes for high-grade serous ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Lawrenson, Kate; Li, Qiyuan; Kar, Siddhartha; Seo, Ji-Heui; Tyrer, Jonathan; Spindler, Tassja J; Lee, Janet; Chen, Yibu; Karst, Alison; Drapkin, Ronny; Aben, Katja K H; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Baker, Helen; Bandera, Elisa V; Bean, Yukie; Beckmann, Matthias W; Berchuck, Andrew; Bisogna, Maria; Bjorge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise A; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Bruinsma, Fiona; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian G; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Chen, Anne; Chen, Zhihua; Cook, Linda S; Cramer, Daniel W; Cunningham, Julie M; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Dennis, Joe; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A; Dörk, Thilo; du Bois, Andreas; Dürst, Matthias; Eccles, Diana; Easton, Douglas T; Edwards, Robert P; Eilber, Ursula; Ekici, Arif B; Fasching, Peter A; Fridley, Brooke L; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goode, Ellen L; Goodman, Marc T; Grownwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hasmad, Hanis Nazihah; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A T; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Estrid; Hogdall, Claus; Hosono, Satoyo; Iversen, Edwin S; Jakubowska, Anna; James, Paul; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y; Kruger Kjaer, Susanne; Kelemen, Linda E; Kellar, Melissa; Kelley, Joseph L; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Krakstad, Camilla; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D; Lee, Alice W; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A; Liang, Dong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon F A G; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R; Nevanlinna, Heli; McNeish, Ian; Menon, Usha; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B; Narod, Steven A; Nedergaard, Lotte; Ness, Roberta B; Azmi, Mat Adenan Noor; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Pearce, Celeste L; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Phelan, Catherine M; Pike, Malcolm C; Poole, Elizabeth M; Ramus, Susan J; Risch, Harvey A; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B; Rzepecka, Iwona K; Salvesen, Helga B; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Schwaab, Ira; Sellers, Thomas A; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C; Sucheston, Lara; Tangen, Ingvild L; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L; Thompson, Pamela J; Timorek, Agnieszka; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Tworoger, Shelley S; van Altena, Anne M; Van Nieuwenhuysen, Els; Vergote, Ignace; Vierkant, Robert A; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Walsh, Christine; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S; Wicklund, Kristine G; Wilkens, Lynne R; Woo, Yin-Ling; Wu, Xifeng; Wu, Anna H; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Monteiro, Alvaro; Pharoah, Paul D; Gayther, Simon A; Freedman, Matthew L

2015-09-22

Genome-wide association studies have reported 11 regions conferring risk of high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer (HGSOC). Expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses can identify candidate susceptibility genes at risk loci. Here we evaluate cis-eQTL associations at 47 regions associated with HGSOC risk (P≤10(-5)). For three cis-eQTL associations (P<1.4 × 10(-3), FDR<0.05) at 1p36 (CDC42), 1p34 (CDCA8) and 2q31 (HOXD9), we evaluate the functional role of each candidate by perturbing expression of each gene in HGSOC precursor cells. Overexpression of HOXD9 increases anchorage-independent growth, shortens population-doubling time and reduces contact inhibition. Chromosome conformation capture identifies an interaction between rs2857532 and the HOXD9 promoter, suggesting this SNP is a leading causal variant. Transcriptomic profiling after HOXD9 overexpression reveals enrichment of HGSOC risk variants within HOXD9 target genes (P=6 × 10(-10) for risk variants (P<10(-4)) within 10 kb of a HOXD9 target gene in ovarian cells), suggesting a broader role for this network in genetic susceptibility to HGSOC.

Cis-eQTL analysis and functional validation of candidate susceptibility genes for high-grade serous ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Lawrenson, Kate; Li, Qiyuan; Kar, Siddhartha; Seo, Ji-Heui; Tyrer, Jonathan; Spindler, Tassja J.; Lee, Janet; Chen, Yibu; Karst, Alison; Drapkin, Ronny; Aben, Katja K. H.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Bowtell, David; Webb, Penelope M.; deFazio, Anna; Baker, Helen; Bandera, Elisa V.; Bean, Yukie; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Berchuck, Andrew; Bisogna, Maria; Bjorge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise A.; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Bruinsma, Fiona; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian G.; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Chen, Anne; Chen, Zhihua; Cook, Linda S.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Dennis, Joe; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Dörk, Thilo; du Bois, Andreas; Dürst, Matthias; Eccles, Diana; Easton, Douglas T.; Edwards, Robert P.; Eilber, Ursula; Ekici, Arif B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G.; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goode, Ellen L.; Goodman, Marc T.; Grownwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hasmad, Hanis Nazihah; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A. T.; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Estrid; Hogdall, Claus; Hosono, Satoyo; Iversen, Edwin S.; Jakubowska, Anna; James, Paul; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y.; Kruger Kjaer, Susanne; Kelemen, Linda E.; Kellar, Melissa; Kelley, Joseph L.; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Krakstad, Camilla; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D.; Lee, Alice W.; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A.; Liang, Dong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon F. A. G.; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R.; Nevanlinna, Heli; McNeish, Ian; Menon, Usha; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Narod, Steven A.; Nedergaard, Lotte; Ness, Roberta B.; Azmi, Mat Adenan Noor; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H.; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Pearce, Celeste L.; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M.; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Phelan, Catherine M.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Ramus, Susan J.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B.; Rzepecka, Iwona K.; Salvesen, Helga B.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Schwaab, Ira; Sellers, Thomas A.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B.; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C.; Sucheston, Lara; Tangen, Ingvild L.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L.; Thompson, Pamela J.; Timorek, Agnieszka; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Tworoger, Shelley S.; van Altena, Anne M.; Van Nieuwenhuysen, Els; Vergote, Ignace; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Walsh, Christine; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Woo, Yin-Ling; Wu, Xifeng; Wu, Anna H.; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Monteiro, Alvaro; Pharoah, Paul D.; Gayther, Simon A.; Freedman, Matthew L.

2015-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have reported 11 regions conferring risk of high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer (HGSOC). Expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses can identify candidate susceptibility genes at risk loci. Here we evaluate cis-eQTL associations at 47 regions associated with HGSOC risk (P≤10−5). For three cis-eQTL associations (P<1.4 × 10−3, FDR<0.05) at 1p36 (CDC42), 1p34 (CDCA8) and 2q31 (HOXD9), we evaluate the functional role of each candidate by perturbing expression of each gene in HGSOC precursor cells. Overexpression of HOXD9 increases anchorage-independent growth, shortens population-doubling time and reduces contact inhibition. Chromosome conformation capture identifies an interaction between rs2857532 and the HOXD9 promoter, suggesting this SNP is a leading causal variant. Transcriptomic profiling after HOXD9 overexpression reveals enrichment of HGSOC risk variants within HOXD9 target genes (P=6 × 10−10 for risk variants (P<10−4) within 10 kb of a HOXD9 target gene in ovarian cells), suggesting a broader role for this network in genetic susceptibility to HGSOC. PMID:26391404

[Quantitative assessment of fungal risk in the case of construction works in healthcare establishments: Proposed indicators for the determination of the impact of management precautions on the risk of fungal infection].

PubMed

Gangneux, J-P; Adjidé, C-C; Bernard, L; Botterel, F; Carel, A; Castel, O; Derouin, F; Hoarau, G; Labussière, H; Lafaurie, M; Millon, L; Pottecher, B; Thiebaut, A; Turco, M; Baron, R

2012-03-01

Construction works in healthcare establishments produce airborne fungal spores and considerably increase the risk of exposure of immunosuppressed patients. It is necessary to reinforce protective measures, or even to implement specific precautions, during this critical phase. The aim of these precautions is to protect both those areas, which are susceptible to dust, and patients at risk of a fungal infection particularly invasive aspergillosis. When construction works are planned in healthcare establishments, the first step consists in the characterisation of the environmental fungal risk and the second one in proposing risk management methods. It is then essential to establish impact indicators in order to evaluate the risk management precautions applied. The working group promoted by the French societies of medical mycology and hospital hygiene (SFMM & SF2H) details here both environmental and epidemiological impact indicators that can be used. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Mammography Screening 2.0 - How Can Risk-Adapted Screening be Implemented in Clinical Practice?: Results of a Focus Group Discussion with Experts in the RISIKOLOTSE.DE Project.

PubMed

Fürst, Nicole; Kiechle, Marion; Strahwald, Brigitte; Quante, Anne S

2018-05-01

The mammography screening programme has been the subject of criticism for some time. Invitation to take part is currently based only on the risk factors of age and female sex, whereby women with an above-average risk are screened too seldom and women with a low risk are possibly screened too often. In future, an individualised risk assessment could make a risk-adapted procedure possible in breast cancer screening. In the RISIKOLOTSE.DE project, schemes are devised to calculate the individual breast cancer risk and evaluate the results. The aim is to assist doctors and screening participants in participatory decision-making. To gauge the baseline situation in the target groups, qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted. At the start of the project, a guideline-based focus group discussion was held with 15 doctors and representatives of the public health service. The transcript of this discussion was evaluated by means of a qualitative content analysis. The participants assessed the concept of risk-adapted screening positively overall. At the same time, the majority of them were of the opinion that the results of individualised risk calculation can be understood and evaluated adequately only by doctors. The great communication requirement and lack of remuneration were given as practical obstacles to implementation. The suggestions and new ideas from the focus group ranged from administrative and regulatory changes to new forms of counselling and adaptable practice aids. An important indicator for the RISIKOLOTSE.DE conception and for planning future surveys was that risk calculation for mammography screening 2.0 was regarded as a purely medical function and that the concept of participatory decision-making played hardly any part in the discussion.

KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors

PubMed Central

Lentine, Krista L.; Kasiske, Bertram L.; Levey, Andrew S.; Adams, Patricia L.; Alberú, Josefina; Bakr, Mohamed A.; Gallon, Lorenzo; Garvey, Catherine A.; Guleria, Sandeep; Li, Philip Kam-Tao; Segev, Dorry L.; Taler, Sandra J.; Tanabe, Kazunari; Wright, Linda; Zeier, Martin G.; Cheung, Michael; Garg, Amit X.

2017-01-01

Abstract The 2017 Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors is intended to assist medical professionals who evaluate living kidney donor candidates and provide care before, during and after donation. The guideline development process followed the Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach and guideline recommendations are based on systematic reviews of relevant studies that included critical appraisal of the quality of the evidence and the strength of recommendations. However, many recommendations, for which there was no evidence or no systematic search for evidence was undertaken by the Evidence Review Team, were issued as ungraded expert opinion recommendations. The guideline work group concluded that a comprehensive approach to risk assessment should replace decisions based on assessments of single risk factors in isolation. Original data analyses were undertaken to produce a “proof-in-concept” risk-prediction model for kidney failure to support a framework for quantitative risk assessment in the donor candidate evaluation and defensible shared decision making. This framework is grounded in the simultaneous consideration of each candidate's profile of demographic and health characteristics. The processes and framework for the donor candidate evaluation are presented, along with recommendations for optimal care before, during, and after donation. Limitations of the evidence are discussed, especially regarding the lack of definitive prospective studies and clinical outcome trials. Suggestions for future research, including the need for continued refinement of long-term risk prediction and novel approaches to estimating donation-attributable risks, are also provided. In citing this document, the following format should be used: Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Living Kidney Donor Work Group. KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline on the Evaluation and Care of Living Kidney Donors. Transplantation. 2017;101(Suppl 8S):S1–S109. PMID:28742762

Health risks from exposure to Legionella in reclaimed water aerosols: Toilet flushing, spray irrigation, and cooling towers.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Hamilton, Mark T; Johnson, William; Jjemba, Patrick; Bukhari, Zia; LeChevallier, Mark; Haas, Charles N

2018-05-01

The use of reclaimed water brings new challenges for the water industry in terms of maintaining water quality while increasing sustainability. Increased attention has been devoted to opportunistic pathogens, especially Legionella pneumophila, due to its growing importance as a portion of the waterborne disease burden in the United States. Infection occurs when a person inhales a mist containing Legionella bacteria. The top three uses for reclaimed water (cooling towers, spray irrigation, and toilet flushing) that generate aerosols were evaluated for Legionella health risks in reclaimed water using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks are compared using data from nineteen United States reclaimed water utilities measured with culture-based methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and ethidium-monoazide-qPCR. Median toilet flushing annual infection risks exceeded 10 -4 considering multiple toilet types, while median clinical severity infection risks did not exceed this value. Sprinkler and cooling tower risks varied depending on meteorological conditions and operational characteristics such as drift eliminator performance. However, the greatest differences between risk scenarios were due to 1) the dose response model used (infection or clinical severity infection) 2) population at risk considered (residential or occupational) and 3) differences in laboratory analytical method. Theoretical setback distances necessary to achieve a median annual infection risk level of 10 -4 are proposed for spray irrigation and cooling towers. In both cooling tower and sprinkler cases, Legionella infection risks were non-trivial at potentially large setback distances, and indicate other simultaneous management practices could be needed to manage risks. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential factors for variability in risks were the concentration of Legionella and aerosol partitioning and/or efficiency across all models, highlighting the importance of strategies to manage Legionella occurrence in reclaimed water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

Quantitative Evaluation of Compliance with Recommendation for Sulfonylurea Dose Co-Administered with DPP-4 Inhibitors in Japan

PubMed Central

Kimura, Tomomi; Shiosakai, Kazuhito; Takeda, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Shinji; Kobayashi, Masahiko; Sakaguchi, Motonobu

2012-01-01

After the launch of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4), a new oral hypoglycemic drug (OHD), in December 2009, severe hypoglycemia cases were reported in Japan. Although the definite cause was unknown, co-administration with sulfonylureas (SU) was suspected as one of the potential risk factors. The Japan Association for Diabetes Education and Care (JADEC) released a recommendation in April 2010 to lower the dose of three major SUs (glimepiride, glibenclamide, and gliclazide) when adding a DPP-4 inhibitor. To evaluate the effectiveness of this risk minimization action along with labeling changes, dispensing records for 114,263 patients prescribed OHDs between December 2008 and December 2010 were identified in the Nihon-Chouzai pharmacy claims database. The adherence to the recommended dosing of SU co-prescribed with DPP-4 inhibitors increased from 46.3% before to 63.8% after the JADEC recommendation (p < 0.01 by time-series analysis), while no change was found in those for SU monotherapy and SU with other OHD co-prescriptions. The adherence was significantly worse for those receiving a glibenclamide prescription. The JADEC recommendation, along with labeling changes, appeared to have a favorable effect on the risk minimization action in Japan. In these instances, a pharmacy claims database can be a useful tool to evaluate risk minimization actions. PMID:24300302

Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach[S

PubMed Central

Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A.; Ramanujan, Saroja

2016-01-01

The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. PMID:26522778

Evaluation of HDL-modulating interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction using a systems pharmacology approach.

PubMed

Gadkar, Kapil; Lu, James; Sahasranaman, Srikumar; Davis, John; Mazer, Norman A; Ramanujan, Saroja

2016-01-01

The recent failures of cholesteryl ester transport protein inhibitor drugs to decrease CVD risk, despite raising HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, suggest that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C may not always reflect elevations in reverse cholesterol transport (RCT), the process by which HDL is believed to exert its beneficial effects. HDL-modulating therapies can affect HDL properties beyond total HDL-C, including particle numbers, size, and composition, and may contribute differently to RCT and CVD risk. The lack of validated easily measurable pharmacodynamic markers to link drug effects to RCT, and ultimately to CVD risk, complicates target and compound selection and evaluation. In this work, we use a systems pharmacology model to contextualize the roles of different HDL targets in cholesterol metabolism and provide quantitative links between HDL-related measurements and the associated changes in RCT rate to support target and compound evaluation in drug development. By quantifying the amount of cholesterol removed from the periphery over the short-term, our simulations show the potential for infused HDL to treat acute CVD. For the primary prevention of CVD, our analysis suggests that the induction of ApoA-I synthesis may be a more viable approach, due to the long-term increase in RCT rate. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

[Classical and molecular methods for identification and quantification of domestic moulds].

PubMed

Fréalle, E; Bex, V; Reboux, G; Roussel, S; Bretagne, S

2017-12-01

To study the impact of the constant and inevitable inhalation of moulds, it is necessary to sample, identify and count the spores. Environmental sampling methods can be separated into three categories: surface sampling is easy to perform but non quantitative, air sampling is easy to calibrate but provides time limited information, and dust sampling which is more representative of long term exposure to moulds. The sampling strategy depends on the objectives (evaluation of the risk of exposure for individuals; quantification of the household contamination; evaluation of the efficacy of remediation). The mould colonies obtained in culture are identified using microscopy, Maldi-TOF, and/or DNA sequencing. Electrostatic dust collectors are an alternative to older methods for identifying and quantifying household mould spores. They are easy to use and relatively cheap. Colony counting should be progressively replaced by quantitative real-time PCR, which is already validated, while waiting for more standardised high throughput sequencing methods for assessment of mould contamination without technical bias. Despite some technical recommendations for obtaining reliable and comparable results, the huge diversity of environmental moulds, the variable quantity of spores inhaled and the association with other allergens (mites, plants) make the evaluation of their impact on human health difficult. Hence there is a need for reliable and generally applicable quantitative methods. Copyright © 2017 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Quantitative metrics for evaluating the phased roll-out of clinical information systems.

PubMed

Wong, David; Wu, Nicolas; Watkinson, Peter

2017-09-01

We introduce a novel quantitative approach for evaluating the order of roll-out during phased introduction of clinical information systems. Such roll-outs are associated with unavoidable risk due to patients transferring between clinical areas using both the old and new systems. We proposed a simple graphical model of patient flow through a hospital. Using a simple instance of the model, we showed how a roll-out order can be generated by minimising the flow of patients from the new system to the old system. The model was applied to admission and discharge data acquired from 37,080 patient journeys at the Churchill Hospital, Oxford between April 2013 and April 2014. The resulting order was evaluated empirically and produced acceptable orders. The development of data-driven approaches to clinical Information system roll-out provides insights that may not necessarily be ascertained through clinical judgment alone. Such methods could make a significant contribution to the smooth running of an organisation during the roll-out of a potentially disruptive technology. Unlike previous approaches, which are based on clinical opinion, the approach described here quantitatively assesses the appropriateness of competing roll-out strategies. The data-driven approach was shown to produce strategies that matched clinical intuition and provides a flexible framework that may be used to plan and monitor Clinical Information System roll-out. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

Quantitative Trait Locus Analysis of SIX1-SIX6 with Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Thickness in Individuals of European Descent

PubMed Central

Kuo, Jane Z.; Zangwill, Linda M.; Medeiros, Felipe A.; Liebmann, Jeffery M.; Girkin, Christopher A.; Hammel, Na’ama; Rotter, Jerome I.; Weinreb, Robert N.

2015-01-01

Purpose To perform a quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis and evaluate whether a locus between SIX1 and SIX6 is associated with retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness in individuals of European descent. Design Observational, multi-center, cross-sectional study. Methods 231 participants were recruited from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study. Association of rs10483727 in SIX1-SIX6 with global and sectoral RNFL thickness was performed. Quantitative trait analysis with the additive model of inheritance was analyzed using linear regression. Trend analysis was performed to evaluate the mean global and sectoral RNFL thickness with 3 genotypes of interest (T/T, C/T, C/C). All models were adjusted for age and gender. Results Direction of association between T allele and RNFL thickness was consistent in the global and different sectoral RNFL regions. Each copy of the T risk allele in rs10483727 was associated with −0.16 μm thinner global RNFL thickness (β=−0.16, 95% CI: −0.28 to −0.03; P=0.01). Similar patterns were found for the sectoral regions, including inferior (P=0.03), inferior-nasal (P=0.017), superior-nasal (P=0.0025), superior (P=0.002) and superior-temporal (P=0.008). The greatest differences were observed in the superior and inferior quadrants, supporting clinical observations for RNFL thinning in glaucoma. Thinner global RNFL was found in subjects with T/T genotypes compared to subjects with C/T and C/C genotypes (P=0.044). Conclusions Each copy of the T risk allele has an additive effect and was associated with thinner global and sectoral RNFL. Findings from this QTL analysis further support a genetic contribution to glaucoma pathophysiology. PMID:25849520

42 CFR 431.424 - Evaluation requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... evaluations. Demonstration evaluations will include the following: (1) Quantitative research methods. (i... of appropriate evaluation strategies (including experimental and other quantitative and qualitative... demonstration. (ii) CMS will consider alternative evaluation designs when quantitative designs are technically...

42 CFR 431.424 - Evaluation requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... evaluations. Demonstration evaluations will include the following: (1) Quantitative research methods. (i... of appropriate evaluation strategies (including experimental and other quantitative and qualitative... demonstration. (ii) CMS will consider alternative evaluation designs when quantitative designs are technically...

42 CFR 431.424 - Evaluation requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... evaluations. Demonstration evaluations will include the following: (1) Quantitative research methods. (i... of appropriate evaluation strategies (including experimental and other quantitative and qualitative... demonstration. (ii) CMS will consider alternative evaluation designs when quantitative designs are technically...

Technical guide for applications of gene expression profiling in human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Bourdon-Lacombe, Julie A; Moffat, Ivy D; Deveau, Michelle; Husain, Mainul; Auerbach, Scott; Krewski, Daniel; Thomas, Russell S; Bushel, Pierre R; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L

2015-07-01

Toxicogenomics promises to be an important part of future human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals. The application of gene expression profiles (e.g., for hazard identification, chemical prioritization, chemical grouping, mode of action discovery, and quantitative analysis of response) is growing in the literature, but their use in formal risk assessment by regulatory agencies is relatively infrequent. Although additional validations for specific applications are required, gene expression data can be of immediate use for increasing confidence in chemical evaluations. We believe that a primary reason for the current lack of integration is the limited practical guidance available for risk assessment specialists with limited experience in genomics. The present manuscript provides basic information on gene expression profiling, along with guidance on evaluating the quality of genomic experiments and data, and interpretation of results presented in the form of heat maps, pathway analyses and other common approaches. Moreover, potential ways to integrate information from gene expression experiments into current risk assessment are presented using published studies as examples. The primary objective of this work is to facilitate integration of gene expression data into human health risk assessments of environmental chemicals. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Criteria for the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) safety evaluation process for fragrance ingredients.

PubMed

Api, A M; Belsito, D; Bruze, M; Cadby, P; Calow, P; Dagli, M L; Dekant, W; Ellis, G; Fryer, A D; Fukayama, M; Griem, P; Hickey, C; Kromidas, L; Lalko, J F; Liebler, D C; Miyachi, Y; Politano, V T; Renskers, K; Ritacco, G; Salvito, D; Schultz, T W; Sipes, I G; Smith, B; Vitale, D; Wilcox, D K

2015-08-01

The Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Inc. (RIFM) has been engaged in the generation and evaluation of safety data for fragrance materials since its inception over 45 years ago. Over time, RIFM's approach to gathering data, estimating exposure and assessing safety has evolved as the tools for risk assessment evolved. This publication is designed to update the RIFM safety assessment process, which follows a series of decision trees, reflecting advances in approaches in risk assessment and new and classical toxicological methodologies employed by RIFM over the past ten years. These changes include incorporating 1) new scientific information including a framework for choosing structural analogs, 2) consideration of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), 3) the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for dermal sensitization, 4) the respiratory route of exposure, 5) aggregate exposure assessment methodology, 6) the latest methodology and approaches to risk assessments, 7) the latest alternatives to animal testing methodology and 8) environmental risk assessment. The assessment begins with a thorough analysis of existing data followed by in silico analysis, identification of 'read across' analogs, generation of additional data through in vitro testing as well as consideration of the TTC approach. If necessary, risk management may be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Process evaluation of the Data-driven Quality Improvement in Primary Care (DQIP) trial: quantitative examination of variation between practices in recruitment, implementation and effectiveness.

PubMed

Dreischulte, Tobias; Grant, Aileen; Hapca, Adrian; Guthrie, Bruce

2018-01-05

The cluster randomised trial of the Data-driven Quality Improvement in Primary Care (DQIP) intervention showed that education, informatics and financial incentives for general medical practices to review patients with ongoing high-risk prescribing of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antiplatelets reduced the primary end point of high-risk prescribing by 37%, where both ongoing and new high-risk prescribing were significantly reduced. This quantitative process evaluation examined practice factors associated with (1) participation in the DQIP trial, (2) review activity (extent and nature of documented reviews) and (3) practice level effectiveness (relative reductions in the primary end point). Invited practices recruited (n=33) and not recruited (n=32) to the DQIP trial in Scotland, UK. (1) Characteristics of recruited versus non-recruited practices. Associations of (2) practice characteristics and 'adoption' (self-reported implementation work done by practices) with documented review activity and (3) of practice characteristics, DQIP adoption and review activity with effectiveness. (1) Recruited practices had lower performance in the quality and outcomes framework than those declining participation. (2) Not being an approved general practitioner training practice and higher self-reported adoption were significantly associated with higher review activity. (3) Effectiveness ranged from a relative increase in high-risk prescribing of 24.1% to a relative reduction of 77.2%. High-risk prescribing and DQIP adoption (but not documented review activity) were significantly associated with greater effectiveness in the final multivariate model, explaining 64.0% of variation in effectiveness. Intervention implementation and effectiveness of the DQIP intervention varied substantially between practices. Although the DQIP intervention primarily targeted review of ongoing high-risk prescribing, the finding that self-reported DQIP adoption was a stronger predictor of effectiveness than documented review activity supports that reducing initiation and/or re-initiation of high-risk prescribing is key to its effectiveness. NCT01425502; Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Clinical Utility of Quantitative Gleason Grading in Prostate Biopsies and Prostatectomy Specimens.

PubMed

Sauter, Guido; Steurer, Stefan; Clauditz, Till Sebastian; Krech, Till; Wittmer, Corinna; Lutz, Florian; Lennartz, Maximilian; Janssen, Tim; Hakimi, Nayira; Simon, Ronald; von Petersdorff-Campen, Mareike; Jacobsen, Frank; von Loga, Katharina; Wilczak, Waldemar; Minner, Sarah; Tsourlakis, Maria Christina; Chirico, Viktoria; Haese, Alexander; Heinzer, Hans; Beyer, Burkhard; Graefen, Markus; Michl, Uwe; Salomon, Georg; Steuber, Thomas; Budäus, Lars Henrik; Hekeler, Elena; Malsy-Mink, Julia; Kutzera, Sven; Fraune, Christoph; Göbel, Cosima; Huland, Hartwig; Schlomm, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Gleason grading is the strongest prognostic parameter in prostate cancer. Gleason grading is categorized as Gleason ≤ 6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8, and 9-10, but there is variability within these subgroups. For example, Gleason 4 components may range from 5-45% in a Gleason 3 + 4 = 7 cancer. To assess the clinical relevance of the fractions of Gleason patterns. Prostatectomy specimens from 12823 consecutive patients and of 2971 matched preoperative biopsies for which clinical data with an annual follow-up between 2005 and 2014 were available from the Martini-Klinik database. To evaluate the utility of quantitative grading, the fraction of Gleason 3, 4, and 5 patterns seen in biopsies and prostatectomies were recorded. Gleason grade fractions were compared with prostatectomy findings and prostate-specific antigen recurrence. Our data suggest a striking utility of quantitative Gleason grading. In prostatectomy specimens, there was a continuous increase of the risk of prostate-specific antigen recurrence with increasing percentage of Gleason 4 fractions with remarkably small differences in outcome at clinically important thresholds (0% vs 5%; 40% vs 60% Gleason 4), distinguishing traditionally established prognostic groups. Also, in biopsies, the quantitative Gleason scoring identified various intermediate risk groups with respect to Gleason findings in corresponding prostatectomies. Quantitative grading may also reduce the clinical impact of interobserver variability because borderline findings such as tumors with 5%, 40%, or 60% Gleason 4 fractions and very small Gleason 5 fractions (with pivotal impact on the Gleason score) are disclaimed. Quantitative Gleason pattern data should routinely be provided in addition to Gleason score categories, both in biopsies and in prostatectomy specimens. Gleason score is the most important prognostic parameter in prostate cancer, but prone to interobserver variation. The results of our study show that morphological aspects that define the Gleason grade in prostate cancer represent a continuum. Quantitation of Gleason patterns provides clinically relevant information beyond the traditional Gleason grading categories ≤ 3 + 3, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8, 9 -1 0. Quantitative Gleason scoring can help to minimize variations between different pathologists and substantially aid in optimized therapy decision-making. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.

2002-01-01

This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

Serial semi-quantitative measurement of fecal calprotectin in patients with ulcerative colitis in remission.

PubMed

Garcia-Planella, Esther; Mañosa, Míriam; Chaparro, María; Beltrán, Belén; Barreiro-de-Acosta, Manuel; Gordillo, Jordi; Ricart, Elena; Bermejo, Fernando; García-Sánchez, Valle; Piqueras, Marta; Llaó, Jordina; Gisbert, Javier P; Cabré, Eduard; Domènech, Eugeni

2018-02-01

Fecal calprotectin (FC) correlates with clinical and endoscopic activity in ulcerative colitis (UC), and it is a good predictor of relapse. However, its use in clinical practice is constrained by the need for the patient to deliver stool samples, and for their handling and processing in the laboratory. The availability of hand held devices might spread the use of FC in clinical practice. To evaluate the usefulness of a rapid semi-quantitative test of FC in predicting relapse in patients with UC in remission. Prospective, multicenter study that included UC patients in clinical remission for ≥6 months on maintenance treatment with mesalamine. Patients were evaluated clinically and semi-quantitative FC was measured using a monoclonal immunochromatography rapid test at baseline and every three months until relapse or 12 months of follow-up. One hundred and ninety-one patients had at least one determination of FC. At the end of follow-up, 33 patients (17%) experienced clinical relapse. Endoscopic activity at baseline (p = .043) and having had at least one FC > 60 μg/g during the study period (p = .03) were associated with a higher risk of relapse during follow-up. We obtained a total of 636 semi-quantitative FC determinations matched with a three-month follow-up clinical assessment. Having undetectable FC was inversely associated with early relapse (within three months), with a negative predictive value of 98.6% and a sensitivity of 93.9%. Serial, rapid semi-quantitative measurement of FC may be a useful, easy and cheap monitoring tool for patients with UC in remission.

Revised Risk Priority Number in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Model from the Perspective of Healthcare System

PubMed Central

Rezaei, Fatemeh; Yarmohammadian, Mohmmad H.; Haghshenas, Abbas; Fallah, Ali; Ferdosi, Masoud

2018-01-01

Background: Methodology of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is known as an important risk assessment tool and accreditation requirement by many organizations. For prioritizing failures, the index of “risk priority number (RPN)” is used, especially for its ease and subjective evaluations of occurrence, the severity and the detectability of each failure. In this study, we have tried to apply FMEA model more compatible with health-care systems by redefining RPN index to be closer to reality. Methods: We used a quantitative and qualitative approach in this research. In the qualitative domain, focused groups discussion was used to collect data. A quantitative approach was used to calculate RPN score. Results: We have studied patient's journey in surgery ward from holding area to the operating room. The highest priority failures determined based on (1) defining inclusion criteria as severity of incident (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence of incident (time - unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) then, (2) risks priority criteria quantified by using RPN index (361 for the highest rate failure). The ability of improved RPN scores reassessed by root cause analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: We concluded that standard criteria should be developed inconsistent with clinical linguistic and special scientific fields. Therefore, cooperation and partnership of technical and clinical groups are necessary to modify these models. PMID:29441184

Role of imaging in evaluation of sudden cardiac death risk in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Geske, Jeffrey B; Ommen, Steve R

2015-09-01

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most common heritable cardiomyopathy and is associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD) - an uncommon but devastating clinical outcome. This review is designed to assess the role of imaging in established risk factor assessment and its role in emerging SCD risk stratification. Recent publications have highlighted the crucial role of imaging in HCM SCD risk stratification. Left ventricular hypertrophy assessment remains the key imaging determinant of risk. Data continue to emerge on the role of systolic dysfunction, apical aneurysms, left atrial enlargement and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction as markers of risk. Quantitative assessment of delayed myocardial enhancement and T1 mapping on cardiac MRI continue to evolve. Recent multicenter trials have allowed multivariate SCD risk assessment in large HCM cohorts. Given aggregate risk with presence of multiple risk factors, a single parameter should not be used in isolation to determine implantable cardiac defibrillator candidacy. Use of all available imaging data, including cardiac magnetic resonance tissue characterization, allows a comprehensive approach to SCD stratification and implantable cardiac defibrillator decision-making.

Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

2007-01-01

Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

Potable Water Reuse: What Are the Microbiological Risks?

PubMed

Nappier, Sharon P; Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E

2018-06-01

With the increasing interest in recycling water for potable reuse purposes, it is important to understand the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. This review focuses on potable reuse systems that use high-level treatment and de facto reuse scenarios that include a quantifiable wastewater effluent component. In this article, we summarize the published human health studies related to potable reuse, including both epidemiology studies and quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Overall, there have been relatively few health-based studies evaluating the microbial risks associated with potable reuse. Several microbial risk assessments focused on risks associated with unplanned (or de facto) reuse, while others evaluated planned potable reuse, such as indirect potable reuse (IPR) or direct potable reuse (DPR). The reported QMRA-based risks for planned potable reuse varied substantially, indicating there is a need for risk assessors to use consistent input parameters and transparent assumptions, so that risk results are easily translated across studies. However, the current results overall indicate that predicted risks associated with planned potable reuse scenarios may be lower than those for de facto reuse scenarios. Overall, there is a clear need to carefully consider water treatment train choices when wastewater is a component of the drinking water supply (whether de facto, IPR, or DPR). More data from full-scale water treatment facilities would be helpful to quantify levels of viruses in raw sewage and reductions across unit treatment processes for both culturable and molecular detection methods.

Defining High-Risk Precursor Signaling to Advance Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Prevention

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

KEYWORDS: 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Aim 1: Functional analysis of progenitor and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1Functional...and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1: Quantitation of LP (Luminal Progenitor) and basal stem cell (MASC) populations A. Quantitation of...LP and basal stem cell (MASC) populations We have continued to add patients to the cohorts between months 12 and 24. (This reporting period

Application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to analyze the public health risk from poor drinking water quality in a low income area in Accra, Ghana.

PubMed

Machdar, E; van der Steen, N P; Raschid-Sally, L; Lens, P N L

2013-04-01

In Accra, Ghana, a majority of inhabitants lives in over-crowded areas with limited access to piped water supply, which is often also intermittent. This study assessed in a densely populated area the risk from microbial contamination of various sources of drinking water, by conducting a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk to human health from microorganism exposure and dose-response relationships. Furthermore the cost-effectiveness in reducing the disease burden through targeted interventions was evaluated. Five risk pathways for drinking water were identified through a survey (110 families), namely household storage, private yard taps, communal taps, communal wells and water sachets. Samples from each source were analyzed for Escherichia coli and Ascaris contamination. Published ratios between E. coli and other pathogens were used for the QMRA and disease burden calculations. The major part of the burden of disease originated from E. coli O157:H7 (78%) and the least important contributor was Cryptosporidium (0.01%). Other pathogens contributed 16% (Campylobacter), 5% (Rotavirus) and 0.3% (Ascaris). The sum of the disease burden of these pathogens was 0.5 DALYs per person per year, which is much higher than the WHO reference level. The major contamination pathway was found to be household storage. Disinfection of water at household level was the most cost-effective intervention (<5 USD/DALY-averted) together with hygiene education. Water supply network improvements were significantly less cost-effective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Assessment of Current Risks to Harlequin Ducks in Prince William Sound, Alaska, from the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A.; Gentile, John H.; Parker, Keith R.; Murphy, Stephen M.; Day, Robert H.; Bence, A. Edward; Neff, Jerry M.; Wiens, John A.

2012-01-01

Harlequin Ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) were adversely affected by the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and some have suggested effects continue two decades later. We present an ecological risk assessment evaluating quantitatively whether PWS seaducks continue to be at-risk from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in residual Exxon Valdez oil. Potential pathways for PAH exposures are identified for initially oiled and never-oiled reference sites. Some potential pathways are implausible (e.g., a seaduck excavating subsurface oil residues), whereas other pathways warrant quantification. We used data on PAH concentrations in PWS prey species, sediments, and seawater collected during 2001–2008 to develop a stochastic individual-based model projecting assimilated doses to seaducks. We simulated exposures to 500,000 individuals in each of eight age/gender classes, capturing the variability within a population of seaducks living in PWS. Doses to the maximum-exposed individuals are ∼400–4,000 times lower than chronic toxicity reference values established using USEPA protocols for seaducks. These exposures are so low that no individual-level effects are plausible, even within a simulated population that is orders-of-magnitude larger than exists in PWS. We conclude that toxicological risks to PWS seaducks from residual Exxon Valdez oil two decades later are essentially non-existent. PMID:23723680

Association of tagSNPs in the urokinase-plasminogen activator (PLAU) gene with Alzheimer's disease and associated quantitative traits.

PubMed

Ozturk, Ayla; Minster, Ryan L; DeKosky, Steven T; Kamboh, M Ilyas

2007-01-05

The gene coding for urokinase-plasminogen activator (PLAU) is a strong biological and positional candidate gene for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Previously some studies have examined the role of common variation in the PLAU gene with AD risk but the results have been inconsistent and this inconsistency could have been due to the use of relatively small sample sizes. In this study we evaluated the distribution of four tagSNPs (rs2227562 in intron 5, rs2227564 in exon 6, rs2227571 in intron 9, and rs4065 in 3'UTR) in the PLAU gene in a large case-control study consisting of up to 1,000 AD patients and 697 white control subjects. We examined the role of these tagSNPs with AD risk and quantitative traits of AD, including age-at-onset (AAO), disease duration, and mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores. The 3'UTR SNP revealed modest significant association with risk (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.53-0.95; P = 0.02), AAO (P = 0.036) and disease duration (P = 0.04) of AD. In addition, the intron 9 SNP also revealed a significant association with AAO (P = 0.01) and disease duration (P = 0.006). Our data on a large number of AD cases and controls suggest that genetic variation in PLAU may affect the risk and AAO of AD.

Risk taking in first and second generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents: an emerging challenge for school nurses.

PubMed

Jolly, Kim; Archibald, Cynthia; Liehr, Patricia

2013-10-01

School nurses are well positioned to address risk-taking behaviors for adolescents in their care. The purpose of this mixed-method exploratory study was to explore risk taking in Afro-Caribbean adolescents in South Florida, comparing first- to second-generation adolescents. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from an immigrant group using the adolescent risk-taking instrument to evaluate risk-taking attitudes, behaviors, and self-described riskiest activities. One-hundred and six adolescents participated; 44% were first generation Afro-Caribbean. Data analysis included analysis of variance, frequencies, and content analysis. There were no differences in risk-taking attitudes; smaller percentages of first generation Afro-Caribbean adolescents reported sexual activity, substance use, and violence. Over one third of the sample, regardless of generational status, reported alcohol use, but did not note alcohol or other health-compromising behaviors as "riskiest" activities. It is important to better understand Afro-Caribbean adolescents' perspectives about risky behaviors, and school-based venues offer the best promise for reaching these adolescents.

Risk evaluation of available phosphorus loss in agricultural land based on remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiaodong; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Junfeng; Liu, Ting; Xie, Bin

2010-09-01

The surplus of phosphorus leads to water eutrophication. Huge input of fertilizers in agricultural activities enriches nutrition in soil. The superfluous nutrient moves easily to riparian water by rainfall and surface runoff; leads to water eutrophication of riparian wetlands and downstream water; and consequently affects ecological balance. Thus it is significant to investigate the risk of phosphorus loss in agricultural land, to identify high concentration areas and guide the management of nutrition loss. This study was implemented mainly in the area of agricultural use in southern Western Australia, where a three-year period preliminary monitoring of water quality showed that the concentration of different forms of phosphorus in water had far exceeded the standard. Due to the large scale surface runoff caused by occasional storms in Western Australia, soil erosion was selected as the main driving factor for the loss of phosphorus. Remote sensing and ground truth data were used to reflect the seasonal changes of plants. The spatial distribution of available phosphorus was then predicted and combined with the evaluation matrix to evaluate the loss risk of phosphorus. This evaluation was based on quantitative rather than qualitative data to make better precision. It could help making decision support for monitoring water quality of rivers and riparian wetlands.

76 FR 58509 - Release of Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

... ISA) provides support for the development of quantitative assessments of risk and exposure for health... conclusions presented in the First Draft ISA provide support for the development of quantitative assessments...

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EQUIFAT: A novel scoring system for the semi-quantitative evaluation of regional adipose tissues in Equidae.

PubMed

Morrison, Philippa K; Harris, Patricia A; Maltin, Charlotte A; Grove-White, Dai; Argo, Caroline McG

2017-01-01

Anatomically distinct adipose tissues represent variable risks to metabolic health in man and some other mammals. Quantitative-imaging of internal adipose depots is problematic in large animals and associations between regional adiposity and health are poorly understood. This study aimed to develop and test a semi-quantitative system (EQUIFAT) which could be applied to regional adipose tissues. Anatomically-defined, photographic images of adipose depots (omental, mesenteric, epicardial, rump) were collected from 38 animals immediately post-mortem. Images were ranked and depot-specific descriptors were developed (1 = no fat visible; 5 = excessive fat present). Nuchal-crest and ventro-abdominal-retroperitoneal adipose depot depths (cm) were transformed to categorical 5 point scores. The repeatability and reliability of EQUIFAT was independently tested by 24 observers. When half scores were permitted, inter-observer agreement was substantial (average κw: mesenteric, 0.79; omental, 0.79; rump 0.61) or moderate (average κw; epicardial, 0.60). Intra-observer repeatability was tested by 8 observers on 2 occasions. Kappa analysis indicated perfect (omental and mesenteric) and substantial agreement (epicardial and rump) between attempts. A further 207 animals were evaluated ante-mortem (age, height, breed-type, gender, body condition score [BCS]) and again immediately post-mortem (EQUIFAT scores, carcass weight). Multivariable, random effect linear regression models were fitted (breed as random effect; BCS as outcome variable). Only height, carcass weight, omental and retroperitoneal EQUIFAT scores remained as explanatory variables in the final model. The EQUIFAT scores developed here demonstrate clear functional differences between regional adipose depots and future studies could be directed towards describing associations between adiposity and disease risk in surgical and post-mortem situations.

EQUIFAT: A novel scoring system for the semi-quantitative evaluation of regional adipose tissues in Equidae

PubMed Central

Morrison, Philippa K.; Harris, Patricia A.; Maltin, Charlotte A.; Grove-White, Dai; Argo, Caroline McG.

2017-01-01

Anatomically distinct adipose tissues represent variable risks to metabolic health in man and some other mammals. Quantitative-imaging of internal adipose depots is problematic in large animals and associations between regional adiposity and health are poorly understood. This study aimed to develop and test a semi-quantitative system (EQUIFAT) which could be applied to regional adipose tissues. Anatomically-defined, photographic images of adipose depots (omental, mesenteric, epicardial, rump) were collected from 38 animals immediately post-mortem. Images were ranked and depot-specific descriptors were developed (1 = no fat visible; 5 = excessive fat present). Nuchal-crest and ventro-abdominal-retroperitoneal adipose depot depths (cm) were transformed to categorical 5 point scores. The repeatability and reliability of EQUIFAT was independently tested by 24 observers. When half scores were permitted, inter-observer agreement was substantial (average κw: mesenteric, 0.79; omental, 0.79; rump 0.61) or moderate (average κw; epicardial, 0.60). Intra-observer repeatability was tested by 8 observers on 2 occasions. Kappa analysis indicated perfect (omental and mesenteric) and substantial agreement (epicardial and rump) between attempts. A further 207 animals were evaluated ante-mortem (age, height, breed-type, gender, body condition score [BCS]) and again immediately post-mortem (EQUIFAT scores, carcass weight). Multivariable, random effect linear regression models were fitted (breed as random effect; BCS as outcome variable). Only height, carcass weight, omental and retroperitoneal EQUIFAT scores remained as explanatory variables in the final model. The EQUIFAT scores developed here demonstrate clear functional differences between regional adipose depots and future studies could be directed towards describing associations between adiposity and disease risk in surgical and post-mortem situations. PMID:28296956

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk

EPA Science Inventory

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the ne...

Design features of graphs in health risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ancker, Jessica S; Senathirajah, Yalini; Kukafka, Rita; Starren, Justin B

2006-01-01

This review describes recent experimental and focus group research on graphics as a method of communication about quantitative health risks. Some of the studies discussed in this review assessed effect of graphs on quantitative reasoning, others assessed effects on behavior or behavioral intentions, and still others assessed viewers' likes and dislikes. Graphical features that improve the accuracy of quantitative reasoning appear to differ from the features most likely to alter behavior or intentions. For example, graphs that make part-to-whole relationships available visually may help people attend to the relationship between the numerator (the number of people affected by a hazard) and the denominator (the entire population at risk), whereas graphs that show only the numerator appear to inflate the perceived risk and may induce risk-averse behavior. Viewers often preferred design features such as visual simplicity and familiarity that were not associated with accurate quantitative judgments. Communicators should not assume that all graphics are more intuitive than text; many of the studies found that patients' interpretations of the graphics were dependent upon expertise or instruction. Potentially useful directions for continuing research include interactions with educational level and numeracy and successful ways to communicate uncertainty about risk.

Cyclic subway networks are less risky in metropolises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Ying; Zhang, Hai-Tao; Xu, Bowen; Zhu, Tao; Chen, Guanrong; Chen, Duxin

2018-02-01

Subways are crucial in modern transportation systems of metropolises. To quantitatively evaluate the potential risks of subway networks suffered from natural disasters or deliberate attacks, real data from seven Chinese subway systems are collected and their population distributions and anti-risk capabilities are analyzed. Counterintuitively, it is found that transfer stations with large numbers of connections are not the most crucial, but the stations and lines with large betweenness centrality are essential, if subway networks are being attacked. It is also found that cycles reduce such correlations due to the existence of alternative paths. To simulate the data-based observations, a network model is proposed to characterize the dynamics of subway systems under various intensities of attacks on stations and lines. This study sheds some light onto risk assessment of subway networks in metropolitan cities.

Size-adjusted Quantitative Gleason Score as a Predictor of Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Deng, Fang-Ming; Donin, Nicholas M; Pe Benito, Ruth; Melamed, Jonathan; Le Nobin, Julien; Zhou, Ming; Ma, Sisi; Wang, Jinhua; Lepor, Herbert

2016-08-01

The risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy for pathologic Gleason 7 prostate cancer varies according to the proportion of Gleason 4 component. We sought to explore the value of several novel quantitative metrics of Gleason 4 disease for the prediction of BCR in men with Gleason 7 disease. We analyzed a cohort of 2630 radical prostatectomy cases from 1990-2007. All pathologic Gleason 7 cases were identified and assessed for quantity of Gleason pattern 4. Three methods were used to quantify the extent of Gleason 4: a quantitative Gleason score (qGS) based on the proportion of tumor composed of Gleason pattern 4, a size-weighted score (swGS) incorporating the overall quantity of Gleason 4, and a size index (siGS) incorporating the quantity of Gleason 4 based on the index lesion. Associations between the above metrics and BCR were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. qGS, swGS, and siGS were significantly associated with BCR on multivariate analysis when adjusted for traditional Gleason score, age, prostate specific antigen, surgical margin, and stage. Using Harrell's c-index to compare the scoring systems, qGS (0.83), swGS (0.84), and siGS (0.84) all performed better than the traditional Gleason score (0.82). Quantitative measures of Gleason pattern 4 predict BCR better than the traditional Gleason score. In men with Gleason 7 prostate cancer, quantitative analysis of the proportion of Gleason pattern 4 (quantitative Gleason score), as well as size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 (size-weighted Gleason score), and a size-weighted measurement of Gleason 4 based on the largest tumor nodule significantly improve the predicted risk of biochemical recurrence compared with the traditional Gleason score. Copyright © 2015 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of Leishmania infantum by real-time PCR in a canine blood bank.

PubMed

Tabar, M D; Roura, X; Francino, O; Altet, L; Ruiz de Gopegui, R

2008-07-01

Risk for transmission of Leishmania infantum from blood products has been largely demonstrated in human and veterinary literature. Appropriate screening of canine blood donors is important especially in an endemic area such as Barcelona (Spain). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the presence of L infantum DNA parasites by real-time quantitative PCR in our canine blood bank. Samples from blood products obtained from 92 canine blood donors were assayed for L infantum by means of real-time PCR amplification and quantification. The prevalence of quantitative PCR-positive blood samples among healthy seronegative blood donors was 19.6 per cent. The results of this study show that L infantum infection is common in canine blood donors and their blood products in an endemic area, despite a negative commercial serological screening for infectious diseases. Therefore, screening by PCR should be included in an integrated approach to evaluate L infantum infection among potential blood donors.

Education and Risk of Dementia: Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Tan, Lan; Wang, Hui-Fu; Tan, Meng-Shan; Tan, Lin; Li, Jie-Qiong; Zhao, Qing-Fei; Yu, Jin-Tai

2016-07-01

Educational level has been regarded as one of the most widely accepted risk factors in the epidemiological studies for dementia, despite with discordant qualitative results. However, the dose-response relation between education and incident dementia was still unknown. To quantitatively evaluate the association between exposure level to high and low education and risk of dementia, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to November 2014 and references of retrieved literatures. Specific prospective cohort studies, in which educational attainment was categorized into at least three levels, were included. Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess the quality of included studies. Fifteen prospective cohort studies with 55655 for low education and eight prospective cohort studies with 20172 for high education were included. In the qualitative analysis, both low and high education showed a dose-response trend with risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). In the quantitative analysis, the dementia risk was reduced by 7 % for per year increase in education (RR, 0.93; 95 % CI, 0.92-0.94; p for overall trend = 0.000; p for nonlinearity = 0.0643). Nonetheless, we did not find statistically significant association between per year decrease in education and dementia (RR, 1.03; 95 % CI, 0.96-1.10; p for overall trend = 0.283; p for nonlinearity = 0.0041) or AD (RR, 1.03; 95 % CI, 0.97-1.10; p for overall trend = 0.357; p for nonlinearity = 0.0022). Both low and high education showed a trend of dose-response relation with risk of dementia and AD. The dementia risk was reduced by 7 % for per year increase in education.

Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and human health effect...

Potential chemical and microbiological risks on human health from urban wastewater reuse in agriculture. Case study of wastewater effluents in Spain.

PubMed

Muñoz, Ivan; Tomàs, Núria; Mas, Jordi; García-Reyes, Juan Fracisco; Molina-Díaz, Antonio; Fernández-Alba, Amadeo R

2010-05-01

Potential health risks derived from wastewater reuse in agriculture have been evaluated with Risk Assessment modelling techniques, in a case study involving the effluents of two Spanish wastewater treatment plants. One of the plants applies primary and secondary treatment, and the other one applies an additional tertiary treatment. Health risks were assessed on the basis of ingesting contaminated food, due to exposure to: (i) 22 chemical pollutants, namely pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), and priority pollutants included in the European Framework Directive, and (ii) microorganisms, namely enterovirus. Chemical Risk Assessment has been carried out following the European Commission's technical guidelines, while risks from exposure to viruses have been evaluated by means of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, assuming a virus to coliform ratio of 1:10(5). The results of the chemical assessment show that there is a margin of safety above 100 for all substances, with the exception of gemfibrozil, for which the mean margin of safety (MOS) is above 100, but the lower bound of MOS with a 95 % confidence interval lies in the 3-4 range. A MOS under 100 was also found for 2,3,7,8-TCDD in one of the effluents. The assessment of risks from viruses shows a very low probability of infection. The overall results show that risks are lower for the plant applying tertiary treatment, especially concerning microbiological parameters.

Development of retrospective quantitative and qualitative job-exposure matrices for exposures at a beryllium processing facility.

PubMed

Couch, James R; Petersen, Martin; Rice, Carol; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K

2011-05-01

To construct a job-exposure matrix (JEM) for an Ohio beryllium processing facility between 1953 and 2006 and to evaluate temporal changes in airborne beryllium exposures. Quantitative area- and breathing-zone-based exposure measurements of airborne beryllium were made between 1953 and 2006 and used by plant personnel to estimate daily weighted average (DWA) exposure concentrations for sampled departments and operations. These DWA measurements were used to create a JEM with 18 exposure metrics, which was linked to the plant cohort consisting of 18,568 unique job, department and year combinations. The exposure metrics ranged from quantitative metrics (annual arithmetic/geometric average DWA exposures, maximum DWA and peak exposures) to descriptive qualitative metrics (chemical beryllium species and physical form) to qualitative assignment of exposure to other risk factors (yes/no). Twelve collapsed job titles with long-term consistent industrial hygiene samples were evaluated using regression analysis for time trends in DWA estimates. Annual arithmetic mean DWA estimates (overall plant-wide exposures including administration, non-production, and production estimates) for the data by decade ranged from a high of 1.39 μg/m(3) in the 1950s to a low of 0.33 μg/m(3) in the 2000s. Of the 12 jobs evaluated for temporal trend, the average arithmetic DWA mean was 2.46 μg/m(3) and the average geometric mean DWA was 1.53 μg/m(3). After the DWA calculations were log-transformed, 11 of the 12 had a statistically significant (p < 0.05) decrease in reported exposure over time. The constructed JEM successfully differentiated beryllium exposures across jobs and over time. This is the only quantitative JEM containing exposure estimates (average and peak) for the entire plant history.

LICARA nanoSCAN - A tool for the self-assessment of benefits and risks of nanoproducts.

PubMed

van Harmelen, Toon; Zondervan-van den Beuken, Esther K; Brouwer, Derk H; Kuijpers, Eelco; Fransman, Wouter; Buist, Harrie B; Ligthart, Tom N; Hincapié, Ingrid; Hischier, Roland; Linkov, Igor; Nowack, Bernd; Studer, Jennifer; Hilty, Lorenz; Som, Claudia

2016-05-01

The fast penetration of nanoproducts on the market under conditions of significant uncertainty of their environmental properties and risks to humans creates a need for companies to assess sustainability of their products. Evaluation of the potential benefits and risks to build a coherent story for communication with clients, authorities, consumers, and other stakeholders is getting to be increasingly important, but SMEs often lack the knowledge and expertise to assess risks and communicate them appropriately. This paper introduces LICARA nanoSCAN, a modular web based tool that supports SMEs in assessing benefits and risks associated with new or existing nanoproducts. This tool is unique because it is scanning both the benefits and risks over the nanoproducts life cycle in comparison to a reference product with a similar functionality in order to enable the development of sustainable and competitive nanoproducts. SMEs can use data and expert judgment to answer mainly qualitative and semi-quantitative questions as a part of tool application. Risks to public, workers and consumers are assessed, while the benefits are evaluated for economic, environmental and societal opportunities associated with the product use. The tool provides an easy way to visualize results as well as to identify gaps, missing data and associated uncertainties. The LICARA nanoSCAN has been positively evaluated by several companies and was tested in a number of case studies. The tool helps to develop a consistent and comprehensive argument on the weaknesses and strengths of a nanoproduct that may be valuable for the communication with authorities, clients and among stakeholders in the value chain. LICARA nanoSCAN identifies areas for more detailed assessments, product design improvement or application of risk mitigation measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Peri-Implantitis: Effect of History of Periodontal Disease and Smoking Habits. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Berton, Federico; Perinetti, Giuseppe; Frassetto, Andrea; Lombardi, Teresa; Khoury, Aiman; Andolsek, Francesca; Di Lenarda, Roberto

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objectives The purpose of this review was to evaluate whether history of periodontitis and smoking habits could represent a risk factor for peri-implantitis and implant loss. Material and Methods This systematic review followed PRISMA guidelines and was registered at the PROSPERO database [registration numbers CRD42016034160 (effect of history of periodontitis) and CRD42016033676 (effect of smoking)]. Broad electronic (MEDLINE) and manual searches were conducted among articles published from January 1st 1990 up to December 31st 2015, resulting in 49332 records for history of periodontitis and 3199 for smoking habits. Selection criteria included prospective studies comparing two cohorts of patients, with and without the investigated risk factor, with a minimum follow-up period of three years, and reporting data on peri-implantitis and implant loss occurrence. Considering that only prospective studies were included, dichotomous data were expressed as risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results Three studies evaluating history of periodontitis (on which quantitative analysis was performed) and one study on smoking effect were included. Both implant and patient-based meta-analyses revealed a significantly higher risk of developing peri-implantitis in patients with a history of periodontitis compared with periodontally healthy subjects, but not a statistically significant increased risk for implant loss. Conclusions The outcomes of this systematic review indicate history of periodontitis as a possible risk factor for peri-implantitis, while insufficient data are present in literature to evaluate the role of smoking. However, available evidence is still weak and immature, and sound epidemiological studies are needed to analyse the specific contribution of these potential risk factors. PMID:27833728

[The use of Bologna Score to assess normal labor care in maternities].

PubMed

Oliveira, Fabio André Miranda de; Leal, Giseli Campos Gaioski; Wolff, Lillian Daisy Gonçalves; Gonçalves, Luciana Schleder

2015-01-01

To assess care during labor and delivery in habitual risk maternity units in a capital in southern Brazil. It is an evaluation research, retrospective, quantitative, developed in three hospitals. The variables relating to the Bologna Score (presence of a companion, use of partograph, absence of stimulation to labor, delivery in non-supine position; skin-to-skin mother with newborn) were collected in 406 records, tabulated in spreadsheets and submitted to simple frequency analysis. Collection lasted from June to September 2014. The assigned scores range from 0 to 5, according to the performance or not of practical activities. The following scores were obtained: 0 (7%); 1 (44,1%); 2 (40,4%); 3 (12,1%), 4 (2,5%), e 5 (0,2%). In the usual risk maternities evaluated, the labor and birth care provided do not match the standards recommended by the World Health Organisation.

76 FR 50904 - Thiamethoxam; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-17

... exposure and risk. A separate assessment was done for clothianidin. i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute... not expected to pose a cancer risk, a quantitative dietary exposure assessment for the purposes of...-dietary sources of post application exposure to obtain an estimate of potential combined exposure. These...

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling:• SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial Source Module as part...

Automatic vertebral bodies detection of x-ray images using invariant multiscale template matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi Sarabi, Mona; Villaroman, Diane; Beckett, Joel; Attiah, Mark; Marcus, Logan; Ahn, Christine; Babayan, Diana; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Macyszyn, Luke; Raghavendra, Cauligi

2017-03-01

Lower back pain and pathologies related to it are one of the most common results for a referral to a neurosurgical clinic in the developed and the developing world. Quantitative evaluation of these pathologies is a challenge. Image based measurements of angles/vertebral heights and disks could provide a potential quantitative biomarker for tracking and measuring these pathologies. Detection of vertebral bodies is a key element and is the focus of the current work. From the variety of medical imaging techniques, MRI and CT scans have been typically used for developing image segmentation methods. However, CT scans are known to give a large dose of x-rays, increasing cancer risk [8]. MRI can be substituted for CTs when the risk is high [8] but are difficult to obtain in smaller facilities due to cost and lack of expertise in the field [2]. X-rays provide another option with its ability to control the x-ray dosage, especially for young people, and its accessibility for smaller facilities. Hence, the ability to create quantitative biomarkers from x-ray data is especially valuable. Here, we develop a multiscale template matching, inspired by [9], to detect centers of vertebral bodies from x-ray data. The immediate application of such detection lies in developing quantitative biomarkers and in querying similar images in a database. Previously, shape similarity classification methods have been used to address this problem, but these are challenging to use in the presence of variation due to gross pathology and even subtle effects [1].

Genome-wide Linkage Analysis for Identifying Quantitative Trait Loci Involved in the Regulation of Lipoprotein a (Lpa) Levels

PubMed Central

López, Sonia; Buil, Alfonso; Ordoñez, Jordi; Souto, Juan Carlos; Almasy, Laura; Lathrop, Mark; Blangero, John; Blanco-Vaca, Francisco; Fontcuberta, Jordi; Soria, José Manuel

2009-01-01

Lipoprotein Lp(a) levels are highly heritable and are associated with cardiovascular risk. We performed a genome-wide linkage analysis to delineate the genomic regions that influence the concentration of Lp(a) in families from the Genetic Analysis of Idiopathic Thrombophilia (GAIT) Project. Lp(a) levels were measured in 387 individuals belonging to 21 extended Spanish families. A total of 485 DNA microsatellite markers were genotyped to provide a 7.1 cM genetic map. A variance component linkage method was used to evaluate linkage and to detect quantitative trait loci (QTLs). The main QTL that showed strong evidence of linkage with Lp(a) levels was located at the structural gene for apo(a) on Chromosome 6 (LOD score=13.8). Interestingly, another QTL influencing Lp(a) concentration was located on Chromosome 2 with a LOD score of 2.01. This region contains several candidate genes. One of them is the tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI), which has antithrombotic action and also has the ability to bind lipoproteins. However, quantitative trait association analyses performed with 12 SNPs in TFPI gene revealed no association with Lp(a) levels. Our study confirms previous results on the genetic basis of Lp(a) levels. In addition, we report a new QTL on Chromosome 2 involved in the quantitative variation of Lp(a). These data should serve as the basis for further detection of candidate genes and to elucidate the relationship between the concentration of Lp(a) and cardiovascular risk. PMID:18560444

Risk assessment of local dermal effects and skin sensitisation under the EU Chemicals Regulation REACH: a proposal for a qualitative, exposure scenario specific, approach.

PubMed

Schaafsma, G; Hertsenberg, A J; Marquart, J

2011-08-01

Within the framework of REACH, an assessment regarding local dermal effects and skin sensitisation should be performed for substances. Quantitative hazard information for these effects is often not available. Furthermore, it is difficult to relate the way in which animals are exposed in dermal toxicity studies directly to dermal exposure in practice. In the absence of quantitative information, a qualitative assessment for dermal effects is the most reasonable option. The qualitative approach as proposed in the REACH guidance recommends only general risk management measures (RMM) for three categories with a low, moderate and high identified hazard, without specifying which RMM are needed for a specific exposure scenario. We propose to differentiate frequency of exposure based on differences in activities and to compare measured and estimated local skin exposure levels with rules of thumb for evaluation of control of risks per hazard category. For workers, specific RMM regimes are assigned to each combination of hazard category and process category (PROC). For consumers, a strategy in which RMM are arranged from product-integrated measures to the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) is presented. Our approach may be transferred into automated assessment tools like Chesar and CEFIC GES. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inter-model comparison of the landscape determinants of vector-borne disease: implications for epidemiological and entomological risk modeling.

PubMed

Lorenz, Alyson; Dhingra, Radhika; Chang, Howard H; Bisanzio, Donal; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2014-01-01

Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.

Utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in risk assessment: Alkylphenols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, B.D.; Toole, A.P.; Callahan, B.G.

1991-12-01

Alkylphenols are a class of environmentally pervasive compounds, found both in natural (e.g., crude oils) and in anthropogenic (e.g., wood tar, coal gasification waste) materials. Despite the frequent environmental occurrence of these chemicals, there is a limited toxicity database on alkylphenols. The authors have therefore developed a 'toxicity equivalence approach' for alkylphenols which is based on their ability to inhibit, in a specific manner, the enzyme cyclooxygenase. Enzyme-inhibiting ability for individual alkylphenols can be estimated based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship developed by Dewhirst (1980) and is a function of the free hydroxyl group, electron-donating ring substituents, and hydrophobic aromaticmore » ring substituents. The authors evaluated the toxicological significance of cyclooxygenase inhibition by comparison of the inhibitory capacity of alkylphenols with the inhibitory capacity of acetylsalicylic acid, or aspirin, a compound whose low-level effects are due to cyclooxygenase inhibition. Since nearly complete absorption for alkylphenols and aspirin is predicted, based on estimates of hydrophobicity and fraction of charged molecules at gastrointestinal pHs, risks from alkylphenols can be expressed directly in terms of 'milligram aspirin equivalence,' without correction for absorption differences. They recommend this method for assessing risks of mixtures of alkylphenols, especially for those compounds with no chronic toxicity data.38 references.« less

Family risk and related education and counseling needs: perceptions of adults with bipolar disorder and siblings of adults with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Peay, H L; Hooker, G W; Kassem, L; Biesecker, B B

2009-03-01

Genetics and mental health professionals increasingly provide education and counseling related to risk for psychiatric illness, but there is insufficient evidence about patient perceptions and needs to guide such interventions. Affected individuals and relatives may perceive increased family risk and have interest in genetic education and counseling. Our objectives were to explore perceptions of family vulnerability, perceived control, and coping strategies related to familial risk and needs from genetic counseling. Our methods included conducting semi-structured interviews (n = 48) with individuals with bipolar disorder (BPD) and unaffected siblings. Content analysis generated descriptive data that provide guidance for clinical interventions and themes to evaluate in future studies. The results showed that participants perceived increased personal and family risk, attributing BPD to genes and family environment. Causal attributions were often uncertain and at times inconsistent. Participants wished to modify psychiatric risk to relatives, but were uncertain how to do so; despite the uncertainty, most parents reported risk-modification efforts. Efforts to cope with family vulnerability included monitoring and cognitive distancing. Participants endorsed the usefulness of education and psychological support, but described more ambivalence about receiving risk assessment. Educational and supportive interventions around family risk for BPD should focus on perceptions of cause and vulnerability, reproductive decision-making, and early intervention and risk modification in young relatives. Psychological support is an important component. Providers should evaluate patient coping strategies, which could facilitate or hinder genetic counseling interventions, and should not assume interest in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The Serotonin Transporter 5-HTTPR Polymorphism is associated with Current and Lifetime Depression in Persons with Chronic Psychotic Disorders

PubMed Central

Contreras, Javier; Hare, Liz; Camarena, Beatriz; Glahn, David; Dassori, Albana; Medina, Rolando; Contrerasa, Salvador; Ramirez, Mercedes; Armas, Regina; Munoz, Rodrigo; Mendoza, Rick; Raventos, Henriette; Ontiveros, Alfonso; Nicolini, Humberto; Palmer, Raymond; Escamilla, Michael

2013-01-01

Objective Variation in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) promoter region has been shown to influence depression in persons who have been exposed to a number of stressful life events. Method We evaluated whether genetic variation in 5-HTTLPR, influences current depression, lifetime history of depression and quantitative measures of depression in persons with chronic psychotic disorders. This is an association study of a genetic variant with quantitative and categorical definitions of depression conducted in the Southwest United States, Mexico, and Costa Rica. We analyzed 260 subjects with a history of psychosis, from a sample of 129 families. Results We found that persons carrying at least one short allele had a statistically significant increased lifetime risk for depressive syndromes (p<.02, Odds Ratio=2.18, 95% CI=1.10–4.20). Conclusion The “ss” or “sl” genotype at the 5-HTTLPR promoter polymorphic locus increases the risk of psychotic individuals to develop major depression during the course of their illness. PMID:19016667

Quantitative risk estimation for large for gestational age using the area under the 100-g oral glucose tolerance test curve.

PubMed

Kim, Sollip; Min, Won-Ki; Chun, Sail; Lee, Woochang; Chung, Hee-Jung; Lee, Pil Ryang; Kim, Ahm

2009-01-01

We devised a complementary quantitative method for gestational diabetes (GDM) that uses the area under the curve (AUC) of the results of the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and evaluated its efficacy in predicting neonates that would be large for gestational age (LGA). The study subjects were 648 pregnant women. The AUC-OGTT (concentration x time) was calculated from the 100-g OGTT results. The incidence of LGA according to each range of the AUC-OGTT was estimated and odds ratios were analyzed using multiple logistic regression analysis.The incidence of LGA increased with the AUC-OGTT value and was 0% for AUC<300, 7.8% for 300-400, 14.9% for 400-500, 20.8% for 500-600, and 45.5% for > or = 600. The odds ratio of LGA increased by approximately two-fold with an increase of 100 in the AUC-OGTT. The results indicated that the AUC-OGTT can be used to quantify the risk of LGA in GDM. The AUC-OGTT could complement a diagnosis of GDM using conventional diagnostic criteria.

Comparison of quantitative and qualitative tests for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency.

PubMed

LaRue, Nicole; Kahn, Maria; Murray, Marjorie; Leader, Brandon T; Bansil, Pooja; McGray, Sarah; Kalnoky, Michael; Zhang, Hao; Huang, Huiqiang; Jiang, Hui; Domingo, Gonzalo J

2014-10-01

A barrier to eliminating Plasmodium vivax malaria is inadequate treatment of infected patients. 8-Aminoquinoline-based drugs clear the parasite; however, people with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency are at risk for hemolysis from these drugs. Understanding the performance of G6PD deficiency tests is critical for patient safety. Two quantitative assays and two qualitative tests were evaluated. The comparison of quantitative assays gave a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.7585 with significant difference in mean G6PD activity, highlighting the need to adhere to a single reference assay. Both qualitative tests had high sensitivity and negative predictive value at a cutoff G6PD value of 40% of normal activity if interpreted conservatively and performed under laboratory conditions. The performance of both tests dropped at a cutoff level of 45%. Cytochemical staining of specimens confirmed that heterozygous females with > 50% G6PD-deficient cells can seem normal by phenotypic tests. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Quantitative systems toxicology

PubMed Central

Bloomingdale, Peter; Housand, Conrad; Apgar, Joshua F.; Millard, Bjorn L.; Mager, Donald E.; Burke, John M.; Shah, Dhaval K.

2017-01-01

The overarching goal of modern drug development is to optimize therapeutic benefits while minimizing adverse effects. However, inadequate efficacy and safety concerns remain to be the major causes of drug attrition in clinical development. For the past 80 years, toxicity testing has consisted of evaluating the adverse effects of drugs in animals to predict human health risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recognized the need to develop innovative toxicity testing strategies and asked the National Research Council to develop a long-range vision and strategy for toxicity testing in the 21st century. The vision aims to reduce the use of animals and drug development costs through the integration of computational modeling and in vitro experimental methods that evaluates the perturbation of toxicity-related pathways. Towards this vision, collaborative quantitative systems pharmacology and toxicology modeling endeavors (QSP/QST) have been initiated amongst numerous organizations worldwide. In this article, we discuss how quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), network-based, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling approaches can be integrated into the framework of QST models. Additionally, we review the application of QST models to predict cardiotoxicity and hepatotoxicity of drugs throughout their development. Cell and organ specific QST models are likely to become an essential component of modern toxicity testing, and provides a solid foundation towards determining individualized therapeutic windows to improve patient safety. PMID:29308440

Balance Assessment in Deaf Children and Teenagers Prior to and Post Capoeira Practice through the Berg Balance Scale.

PubMed

Lima, Rubianne

2017-12-01

Hearing loss changes the functionality and body structure a disability that limits activity and restricts the participation of the individual in situations of daily life. It is believed that capoeira can help people with visual disabilities to minimize these deficits. BSE is a low specificity scale that evaluates objectively and functionally aspects of balance and risk of falls in the elderly and children, including the effect of environment on balance function. The objective of the research is to analyze deaf children and adolescents prior to and post-practice of capoeira using the Berg Balance Scale (BBS). Quantitative, clinical and observational studies. Twenty five deaf children between 10 and 16 years old of both genders were assessed. BBS was applied in two stages: before starting capoeira and after 6 months of training. The one-hour classes were held once a week for quantitative evaluation purposes. The subjects were divided and evaluated in two groups (10-13 years old and 14-16 years old). There was a significant statistical difference in BBS scores. The general group and the group of 10-13 years old (p = 0.0251) showed an increase in scores after practicing capoeira (p = 0.0039). There were no statistically significant differences in the group from 14 to 16 years of age (p = 0.0504). Using the Berg Balance Scale, it was possible to observe an improvement in the balance of the group of children and adolescents who practiced capoeira, and consequently, a decrease in the risk of falling.

Understanding outbreaks of waterborne infectious disease: quantitative microbial risk assessment vs. epidemiology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drinking water contaminated with microbial pathogens can cause outbreaks of infectious disease, and these outbreaks are traditionally studied using epidemiologic methods. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can predict – and therefore help prevent – such outbreaks, but it has never been r...

Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Engine Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. uman target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-hum...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
2Department of...

Use of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to Improve Interpretation of a Recreational Water Epidemiological Study

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted a supplemental water quality monitoring study and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to complement the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recreational Water study at Boquerón ...

Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

PubMed Central

Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

A Quantitative ADME-base Tool for Exploring Human ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure to a wide range of chemicals through our daily habits and routines is ubiquitous and largely unavoidable within modern society. The potential for human exposure, however, has not been quantified for the vast majority of chemicals with wide commercial use. Creative advances in exposure science are needed to support efficient and effective evaluation and management of chemical risks, particularly for chemicals in consumer products. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development is developing, or collaborating in the development of, scientifically-defensible methods for making quantitative or semi-quantitative exposure predictions. The Exposure Prioritization (Ex Priori) model is a simplified, quantitative visual dashboard that provides a rank-ordered internalized dose metric to simultaneously explore exposures across chemical space (not chemical by chemical). Diverse data streams are integrated within the interface such that different exposure scenarios for “individual,” “population,” or “professional” time-use profiles can be interchanged to tailor exposure and quantitatively explore multi-chemical signatures of exposure, internalized dose (uptake), body burden, and elimination. Ex Priori has been designed as an adaptable systems framework that synthesizes knowledge from various domains and is amenable to new knowledge/information. As such, it algorithmically captures the totality of exposure across pathways. It

Screening for osteoporosis in the adult U.S. population: ACPM position statement on preventive practice.

PubMed

Lim, Lionel S; Hoeksema, Laura J; Sherin, Kevin

2009-04-01

Osteoporosis is a common and costly disease that is associated with high morbidity and mortality. There is a lack of direct evidence supporting the benefits of bone mineral density (BMD) screening on osteoporosis outcomes. However, there is indirect evidence to support screening for osteoporosis given the availability of medications with good antifracture efficacy. This paper addresses the position of the American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) on osteoporosis screening. The medical literature was reviewed for studies examining the benefits and harms of osteoporosis screening. An overview is also provided of available modalities for osteoporosis screening, risk-assessment tools, cost effectiveness, benefits and harms of screening, rationale for the study, and recommendations from leading health organizations and ACPM. A review was done of English language articles published prior to September 2008 that were retrieved via search on PubMed, from references from pertinent review or landmark articles, and from websites of leading health organizations. There were no randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of osteoporosis screening on fracture outcomes. However, there was one observational study that demonstrated reduced fracture incidence among recipients of BMD testing. Dual energy x-ray absorptiometry is currently one of the most widely accepted and utilized methods for assessing BMD. Other potential tests for detecting osteoporosis include quantitative ultrasound, quantitative computer tomography, and biochemical markers of bone turnover. Testing via BMD is a cost-effective method for detecting osteoporosis in both men and women. Osteoporosis risk-assessment tools such as the WHO fracture-risk algorithm are useful supplements to BMD assessments as they provide estimates of absolute fracture risks. They can also be used with or without BMD testing to assist healthcare providers and patients in making decisions regarding osteoporosis treatments. All adult patients aged >or=50 years should be evaluated for risk factors for osteoporosis. Screening with BMD testing for osteoporosis is recommended in women aged >or=65 years and in men aged >or=70 years. Younger postmenopausal women and men aged 50-69 years should undergo screening if they have at least one major or two minor risk factors for osteoporosis. It is also recommended that clinicians consider using an osteoporosis risk-assessment tool to evaluate absolute fracture risk to determine appropriate osteoporosis therapies.

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

Assessing the port to port risk of vessel movements vectoring non-indigenous marine species within and across domestic Australian borders.

PubMed

Campbell, Marnie L; Hewitt, Chad L

2011-07-01

Biofouling of vessels is implicated as a high risk transfer mechanism of non-indigenous marine species (NIMS). Biofouling on international vessels is managed through stringent border control policies, however, domestic biofouling transfers are managed under different policies and legislative arrangements as they cross internal borders. As comprehensive guidelines are developed and increased compliance of international vessels with 'clean hull' expectations increase, vessel movements from port to port will become the focus of biosecurity management. A semi-quantitative port to port biofouling risk assessment is presented that evaluates the presence of known NIMS in the source port and determines the likelihood of transfer based on the NIMS association with biofouling and environmental match between source and receiving ports. This risk assessment method was used to assess the risk profile of a single dredge vessel during three anticipated voyages within Australia, resulting in negligible to low risk outcomes. This finding is contrasted with expectations in the literature, specifically those that suggest slow moving vessels pose a high to extreme risk of transferring NIMS species.

Risk Assessment of Pollution Emergencies in Water Source Areas of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Luyao; Feng, Minquan

2018-03-01

[Objective] This study quantitatively evaluated risk probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents under the influence of risk sources, thus providing an important guarantee for risk source identification during water diversion from the Hanjiang River to the Weihe River. [Methods] The research used Bayesian networks to represent the correlation between accidental risk sources. It also adopted the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to combine water quality simulation with state simulation of risk sources, thereby determining standard-exceeding probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents. [Results] When the upstream inflow was 138.15 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0416 and 0.0056 separately. When the upstream inflow was 55.29 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0225 and 0.0028 separately. [Conclusions] The research conducted a risk assessment on sudden water pollution accidents, thereby providing an important guarantee for the smooth implementation, operation, and water quality of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project.

Risk measures for power failures in transmission systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Alex; Feinstein, Zachary; Nehorai, Arye

2016-11-01

We present a novel framework for evaluating the risk of failures in power transmission systems. We use the concept of systemic risk measures from the financial mathematics literature with models of power system failures in order to quantify the risk of the entire power system for design and comparative purposes. The proposed risk measures provide the collection of capacity vectors for the components in the system that lead to acceptable outcomes. Keys to the formulation of our measures of risk are two elements: a model of system behavior that provides the (distribution of) outcomes based on component capacities and an acceptability criterion that determines whether a (random) outcome is acceptable from an aggregated point of view. We examine the effects of altering the line capacities on energy not served under a variety of networks, flow manipulation methods, load shedding schemes, and load profiles using Monte Carlo simulations. Our results provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of these schemes, measured by the required line capacity. These results provide more complete descriptions of the risks of power failures than the previous, one-dimensional metrics.

Quantitative fetal fibronectin and cervical length in symptomatic women: results from a prospective blinded cohort study.

PubMed

Levine, Lisa D; Downes, Katheryne L; Romero, Julie A; Pappas, Hope; Elovitz, Michal A

2018-05-15

Our objectives were to determine whether quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) and cervical length (CL) screening can be used alone or in combination as prognostic tests to identify symptomatic women at the highest or lowest risk for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). A prospective, blinded cohort study of women presenting with a singleton gestation to our triage unit between 22-33w6d with preterm labor symptoms was performed. Women with ruptured membranes, moderate/severe bleeding, and dilation >2 cm were excluded. The primary outcome was sPTB <37 weeks. We evaluated test characteristics of quantitative fFN and CL assessment, both separately and in combination, considering traditionally reported cut-points (fFN ≥50 and CL <25), as well as cut-points above and below these measures. We found interactions between fFN >50 and CL <25 and sPTB by parity and obstetric history (p < .05) and therefore stratified results. Test characteristics are presented with positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Five hundred eighty women were enrolled and 537 women were available for analysis. Overall sPTB rate was 11.1%. Among nulliparous women, increasing levels of fFN were associated with increasing risk of sPTB, with PPV going from 26.5% at ≥20 ng/mL to 44.4% at ≥200 ng/mL. A cut-point of 20 ng/mL had higher sensitivity (69.2%) and higher NPV (96.8%) and therefore identified a "low-risk" group. fFN was not informative for multiparous women regardless of prior obstetrical history or quantitative level chosen. For all women, a shorter CL was associated with an increased sPTB risk. Among nulliparas and multiparas without a prior sPTB, a CL <20 mm optimized test characteristics (PPV 25 and 20%, NPV 95.5, and 92.7%, respectively). For multiparas with a prior sPTB, CL <25 mm was more useful. Using fFN and CL in combination for nulliparas did not improve test characteristics over using the individual fFN (p = .74) and CL (p = .31) components separately. This study identifies the importance of stratifying by parity and obstetrical history when using screening modalities for risk assessment in symptomatic women. For nulliparous women, either quantitative fFN or cervical length assessment can be utilized, depending on resources available, but a lower cut-point of 20 ng/mL should be used for quantitative fFN. For multiparous women, fFN is not useful and cervical length assessment should be the main screening tool utilized when there is clinical uncertainty. Regardless of parity, the PPV of fFN and CL is low and therefore the greatest clinical utility remains in its NPV.

Risk based inspection for atmospheric storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugroho, Agus; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is an attack that occurs on a metallic material as a result of environment's reaction.Thus, it causes atmospheric storage tank's leakage, material loss, environmental pollution, equipment failure and affects the age of process equipment then finally financial damage. Corrosion risk measurement becomesa vital part of Asset Management at the plant for operating any aging asset.This paper provides six case studies dealing with high speed diesel atmospheric storage tank parts at a power plant. A summary of the basic principles and procedures of corrosion risk analysis and RBI applicable to the Process Industries were discussed prior to the study. Semi quantitative method based onAPI 58I Base-Resource Document was employed. The risk associated with corrosion on the equipment in terms of its likelihood and its consequences were discussed. The corrosion risk analysis outcome used to formulate Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method that should be a part of the atmospheric storage tank operation at the plant. RBI gives more concern to inspection resources which are mostly on `High Risk' and `Medium Risk' criteria and less on `Low Risk' shell. Risk categories of the evaluated equipment were illustrated through case study analysis outcome.

Interactive graphics to demonstrate health risks: formative development and qualitative evaluation

PubMed Central

Ancker, Jessica S.; Chan, Connie; Kukafka, Rita

2015-01-01

Background Recent findings suggest that interactive game-like graphics might be useful in communicating probabilities. We developed a prototype for a risk communication module, focusing on eliciting users’ preferences for different interactive graphics and assessing usability and user interpretations. Methods Focus groups and iterative design methods. Results Feedback from five focus groups was used to design the graphics. The final version displayed a matrix of square buttons; clicking on any button allowed the user to see whether the stick figure underneath was affected by the health outcome. When participants used this interaction to learn about a risk, they expressed more emotional responses, both positive and negative, than when viewing any static graphic or numerical description of a risk. Their responses included relief about small risks and concern about large risks. The groups also commented on static graphics: arranging the figures affected by disease randomly throughout a group of figures made it more difficult to judge the proportion affected but was described as more realistic. Conclusions Interactive graphics appear to have potential for expressing risk magnitude as well as the affective feeling of risk. Quantitative studies are planned to assess the effect on perceived risks and estimated risk magnitudes. PMID:19657926

Economic geology of lunar Helium-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, Harrison H.

1988-01-01

Economic geology evaluation of lunar He-3 should answer the question: Can lunar He-3 be sold on Earth with sufficient profit margins and low enough risk to attract capital investment in the enterprise. Concepts that relate to economic geology of recovering He-3 from the lunar maria are not new to human experience. A parametric cost and technology evaluation scheme, based on existing and future data, is required to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the comprehensive economic feasibility and return on investment of He-3 recovery from the lunar maria. There are also many political issues which must be considered as a result of nuclear fusion and lunar mining.

Improved profiling of estrogen metabolites by orbitrap LC/MS

PubMed Central

Li, Xingnan; Franke, Adrian A.

2015-01-01

Estrogen metabolites are important biomarkers to evaluate cancer risks and metabolic diseases. Due to their low physiological levels, a sensitive and accurate method is required, especially for the quantitation of unconjugated forms of endogenous steroids and their metabolites in humans. Here, we evaluated various derivatives of estrogens for improved analysis by orbitrap LC/MS in human serum samples. A new chemical derivatization reagent was applied modifying phenolic steroids to form 1-methylimidazole-2-sulfonyl adducts. The method significantly improves the sensitivity 2–100 fold by full scan MS and targeted selected ion monitoring MS over other derivatization methods including, dansyl, picolinoyl, and pyridine-3-sulfonyl products. PMID:25543003

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

PubMed

Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

2017-07-11

Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

Studying Biology to Understand Risk: Dosimetry Models and Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the quantitative prediction of risk is increased when the prediction is based to as great an extent as possible on the relevant biological factors that constitute the pathway from exposure to adverse outcome. With the first examples now over 40 years old, physiologi...

DOSIMETRY MODELING OF INHALED FORMALDEHYDE: BINNING NASAL FLUX PREDICTIONS FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Dosimetry Modeling of Inhaled Formaldehyde: Binning Nasal Flux Predictions for Quantitative Risk Assessment. Kimbell, J.S., Overton, J.H., Subramaniam, R.P., Schlosser, P.M., Morgan, K.T., Conolly, R.B., and Miller, F.J. (2001). Toxicol. Sci. 000, 000:000.

Interspecies e...

Agreement between quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiology at low doses during waterborne outbreaks of protozoan disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a valuable complement to epidemiology for understanding the health impacts of waterborne pathogens. The approach works by extrapolating available data in two ways. First, dose-response data are typically extrapolated from feeding studies, which use ...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR § 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whittaker, Steve

CarbonSAFE Illinois is a a Feasibility study to develop an established geologic storage complex in Macon County, Illinois, for commercial-scale storage of industrially sourced CO2. Feasibility activities are focused on the Mt. Simon Storage Complex; a step-out well will be drilled near existing storage sites (i.e., the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium’s Illinois Basin – Decatur Project and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Storage Project) to further establish commercial viability of this complex and to evaluate EOR potential in a co-located oil-field trend. The Archer Daniels Midland facility (ethanol plant), City Water, Light, and Power in Springfield, Illinois (coal-fired powermore » station), and other regional industries are potential sources of anthropogenic CO2 for storage at this complex. Site feasibility will be evaluated through drilling results, static and dynamic modeling, and quantitative risk assessment. Both studies will entail stakeholder engagement, consideration of infrastructure requirements, existing policy, and business models. Project data will help calibrate the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Toolkit to better understand the risks of commercial-scale carbon storage.« less

School children with neuropsychological handicap: coping strategies and parents' impact.

PubMed

Krener, P; Cranston, C

1990-01-01

One hundred forty six boys (mean age 9 years 1 months, SD = two years, nine months) and forty one girls (mean age 8 years 6 months, SD = three years, three months) received medical, developmental, psychoeducational, and psychiatric evaluations in a multidisciplinary developmental pediatric clinic. Two hundred fifty variables were analyzed by developing ten scales to quantitatively evaluate neuropsychological risk factors, family and parent functioning, and outcome measures of academic achievement, social adjustment and coping or psychiatric symptom pattern. Higher academic achievement, and lower behavioral symptomatology were associated with high IQ scores but not with higher scores on neurobehavioral risk factors. Chief complaints reported by parents did not correlate with their children's final psychiatric diagnoses and also were found to be independent of children's coping styles observed in the office. Problem parenting, as observed in the pediatrician's office, was associated with behavioral problems, and also with decreased competence on language measures and lower academic achievement in relation to IQ. In this sample, assessing parenting yielded a stronger prediction of the child's school and behavioral functioning than did taking a detailed history of neuropsychological risk factors.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Health risk assessment and the practice of industrial hygiene.

PubMed

Paustenbach, D J

1990-07-01

It has been claimed that there may be as many as 2000 airborne chemicals to which persons could be exposed in the workplace and in the community. Of these, occupational exposure limits have been set for approximately 700 chemicals, and only about 30 chemicals have limits for the ambient air. It is likely that some type of health risk assessment methodology will be used to establish limits for the remainder. Although these methods have been used for over 10 yr to set environmental limits, each step of the process (hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) contains a number of traps into which scientists and risk managers can fall. For example, regulatory approaches to the hazard identification step have allowed little discrimination between the various animal carcinogens, even though these chemicals can vary greatly in their potency and mechanisms of action. In general, epidemiology data have been given little weight compared to the results of rodent bioassays. The dose-response extrapolation process, as generally practiced, often does not present the range of equally plausible values. Procedures which acknowledge and quantitatively account for some or all of the different classes of chemical carcinogens have not been widely adopted. For example, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) and biologically based models need to become a part of future risk assessments. The exposure evaluation portion of risk assessments can now be significantly more valid because of better dispersion models, validated exposure parameters, and the use of computers to account for complex environmental factors. Using these procedures, industrial hygienists are now able to quantitatively estimate the risks caused not only by the inhalation of chemicals but also those caused by dermal contact and incidental ingestion. The appropriate use of risk assessment methods should allow scientists and risk managers to set scientifically valid environmental and occupational standards for air contaminants.

Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, César Augusto; Johana Marín, Nini

2017-10-01

Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk.

Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

PubMed Central

Dong, Q.L.; Barker, G.C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X.Y.; Malakar, P.K.

2015-01-01

Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives. PMID:26089594

Tanning beds, sunlamps, and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma.

PubMed

Gallagher, Richard P; Spinelli, John J; Lee, Tim K

2005-03-01

A number of studies have been conducted evaluating the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma after exposure to sunlamps and/or sunbeds. The proportion of subjects in the individual studies who have reported exposure has, in general, been modest, and the resulting risk estimates for melanoma have been unstable with wide 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The inconclusive results seen in individual studies have resulted in confusion as to the carcinogenicity of these devices. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of these studies. A review of the literature from Jan 1, 1984 to April 2004 using MEDLINE identified 12 case-control studies and 1 cohort study which quantitatively evaluated the use of sunlamps and/or sunbeds and subsequent melanoma. After applying exclusion/inclusion criteria, 9 case-control and 1 cohort study provided data for the analysis. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs for sunlamp/sunbed use and subsequent melanoma were calculated using a random-effect model. Ten studies provided data for assessment of melanoma risk among subjects who reported "ever" being exposed compared with those "never" exposed. A positive association was found between exposure and risk (summary OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.49). Significant heterogeneity between studies was present. Evaluation of the metrics "first exposure as a young adult" (5 studies) and "longest duration or highest frequency of exposure" (6 studies) also yielded significantly elevated risk estimates (summary OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.32-2.18, and 1.61; 95% CI, 1.21-2.12, respectively, with no heterogeneity in either analysis). Results indicate a significantly increased risk of cutaneous melanoma subsequent to sunbed/sunlamp exposure.

Bone strength measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography and the risk of nonvertebral fractures: the osteoporotic fractures in men (MrOS) study.

PubMed

Sheu, Yahtyng; Zmuda, Joseph M; Boudreau, Robert M; Petit, Moira A; Ensrud, Kristine E; Bauer, Douglas C; Gordon, Christopher L; Orwoll, Eric S; Cauley, Jane A

2011-01-01

Many fractures occur in individuals without osteoporosis defined by areal bone mineral density (aBMD). Inclusion of other aspects of skeletal strength may be useful in identifying at-risk subjects. We used surrogate measures of bone strength at the radius and tibia measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) to evaluate their relationships with nonvertebral fracture risk. Femoral neck (FN) aBMD, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), also was included. The study population consisted of 1143 white men aged 69+ years with pQCT measures at the radius and tibia from the Minneapolis and Pittsburgh centers of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. Principal-components analysis and Cox proportional-hazards modeling were used to identify 21 of 58 pQCT variables with a major contribution to nonvertebral incident fractures. After a mean 2.9 years of follow-up, 39 fractures occurred. Men without incident fractures had significantly greater bone mineral content, cross-sectional area, and indices of bone strength than those with fractures by pQCT. Every SD decrease in the 18 of 21 pQCT parameters was significantly associated with increased fracture risk (hazard ration ranged from 1.4 to 2.2) independent of age, study site, body mass index (BMI), and FN aBMD. Using area under the receiver operation characteristics curve (AUC), the combination of FN aBMD and three radius strength parameters individually increased fracture prediction over FN aBMD alone (AUC increased from 0.73 to 0.80). Peripheral bone strength measures are associated with fracture risk and may improve our ability to identify older men at high risk of fracture. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Treatment default amongst patients with tuberculosis in urban Morocco: predicting and explaining default and post-default sputum smear and drug susceptibility results.

PubMed

Cherkaoui, Imad; Sabouni, Radia; Ghali, Iraqi; Kizub, Darya; Billioux, Alexander C; Bennani, Kenza; Bourkadi, Jamal Eddine; Benmamoun, Abderrahmane; Lahlou, Ouafae; Aouad, Rajae El; Dooley, Kelly E

2014-01-01

Public tuberculosis (TB) clinics in urban Morocco. Explore risk factors for TB treatment default and develop a prediction tool. Assess consequences of default, specifically risk for transmission or development of drug resistance. Case-control study comparing patients who defaulted from TB treatment and patients who completed it using quantitative methods and open-ended questions. Results were interpreted in light of health professionals' perspectives from a parallel study. A predictive model and simple tool to identify patients at high risk of default were developed. Sputum from cases with pulmonary TB was collected for smear and drug susceptibility testing. 91 cases and 186 controls enrolled. Independent risk factors for default included current smoking, retreatment, work interference with adherence, daily directly observed therapy, side effects, quick symptom resolution, and not knowing one's treatment duration. Age >50 years, never smoking, and having friends who knew one's diagnosis were protective. A simple scoring tool incorporating these factors was 82.4% sensitive and 87.6% specific for predicting default in this population. Clinicians and patients described additional contributors to default and suggested locally-relevant intervention targets. Among 89 cases with pulmonary TB, 71% had sputum that was smear positive for TB. Drug resistance was rare. The causes of default from TB treatment were explored through synthesis of qualitative and quantitative data from patients and health professionals. A scoring tool with high sensitivity and specificity to predict default was developed. Prospective evaluation of this tool coupled with targeted interventions based on our findings is warranted. Of note, the risk of TB transmission from patients who default treatment to others is likely to be high. The commonly-feared risk of drug resistance, though, may be low; a larger study is required to confirm these findings.

The utility of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, calcaneal quantitative ultrasound, and fracture risk indices (FRAX® and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument) for the identification of women with distal forearm or hip fractures: A pilot study.

PubMed

Esmaeilzadeh, Sina; Cesme, Fatih; Oral, Aydan; Yaliman, Ayse; Sindel, Dilsad

2016-08-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is considered the "gold standard" in predicting osteoporotic fractures. Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS) variables are also known to predict fractures. Fracture risk assessment tools may also guide us for the detection of individuals at high risk for fractures. The aim of this case-control study was to evaluate the utility of DXA bone mineral density (BMD), calcaneal QUS parameters, FRAX® (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool), and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI) for the discrimination of women with distal forearm or hip fractures. This case-control study included 20 women with a distal forearm fracture and 18 women with a hip fracture as cases and 76 age-matched women served as controls. BMD at the spine, proximal femur, and radius was measured using DXA and acoustic parameters of bone were obtained using a calcaneal QUS device. FRAX® 10-year probability of fracture and ORAI scores were also calculated in all participants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess fracture discriminatory power of all the tools. While all DXA BMD, and QUS variables and FRAX® fracture probabilities demonstrated significant areas under the ROC curves for the discrimination of hip-fractured women and those without, only 33% radius BMD, broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability calculated without BMD showed significant discriminatory power for distal forearm fractures. It can be concluded that QUS variables, particularly BUA, and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability without BMD are good candidates for the identification of both hip and distal forearm fractures.

Control of Cattle Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases by Acaricide in Southern Province of Zambia: A Retrospective Evaluation of Animal Health Measures According to Current One Health Concepts.

PubMed

Laing, Gabrielle; Aragrande, Maurizio; Canali, Massimo; Savic, Sara; De Meneghi, Daniele

2018-01-01

One health thinking for health interventions is increasingly being used to capture previously unseen stakeholders and impacts across people, animals, and the environment. The Network for One Health Evaluation (NEOH) proposes a systems-based framework to quantitatively assess integration and highlight the added value (theory of change) that this approach will bring to a project. This case study will retrospectively evaluate the pioneering use of a One Health (OH) approach during an international collaboration (satellite project to tackle production losses due to tick-borne disease in cattle in Southern Zambia in late 1980s). The objective of the evaluation is twofold: retrospective evaluation the OH-ness of the satellite project and identification of costs and benefits. Data for evaluation was recovered from publications, project documents, and witness interviews. A mixed qualitative and quantitative evaluation was undertaken. In this case study, a transdisciplinary approach allowed for the identification of a serious public health risk arising from the unexpected reuse of chemical containers by the local public against advice. Should this pioneering project not have been completed then it is assumed this behavior could have had a large impact on public wellbeing and ultimately reduced regional productivity and compromised welfare. From the economic evaluation, the costs of implementing this OH approach, helping to avoid harm, were small in comparison to overall project costs. The overall OH Index was 0.34. The satellite project demonstrated good OH operations by managing to incorporate the input across multiple dimensions but was slightly weaker on OH infrastructures (OH Ratio = 1.20). These quantitative results can be used in the initial validation and benchmarking of this novel framework. Limitations of the evaluation were mainly a lack of data due to the length of time since project completion and a lack of formal monitoring of program impact. In future health strategy development and execution, routine monitoring and evaluation from an OH perspective (by utilizing the framework proposed by NEOH), could prove valuable or used as a tool for retrospective evaluation of existing policies.

Meeting the Needs of USGS's Science Application for Risk Reduction Group through Evaluation Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, L.; Campbell, N. M.; Vickery, J.; Madera, A.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) group aims to support innovative collaborations in hazard science by uniting a broad range of stakeholders to produce and disseminate knowledge in ways that are useful for decision-making in hazard mitigation, planning, and preparedness. Since 2013, an evaluation team at the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) has worked closely with the SAFRR group to assess these collaborations and communication efforts. In contributing to the nexus between academia and practice, or "pracademia," we use evaluation research to provide the USGS with useful feedback for crafting relevant information for practitioners and decision-makers. This presentation will highlight how the NHC team has varied our methodological and information design approaches according to the needs of each project, which in turn assist the SAFRR group in meeting the needs of practitioners and decision-makers. As the foci of our evaluation activities with SAFRR have evolved, so have our efforts to ensure that our work appropriately matches the information needs of each scenario project. We draw upon multiple projects, including evaluation work on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, "The First Sue Nami" tsunami awareness messaging, and their most recent project concerning a hypothetical M7 earthquake on the Hayward fault in the Bay Area (HayWired scenario). We have utilized various qualitative and quantitative methodologies—including telephone interviews, focus groups, online surveys, nonparticipant observation, and in-person survey distribution. The findings generated from these series of evaluations highlight the ways in which evaluation research can be used by researchers and academics to more appropriately address the needs of practitioners. Moreover, they contribute to knowledge enhancement surrounding disaster preparedness and risk communication, and, more generally, the limited body of knowledge about evaluation-focused disaster preparedness and risk communication. Finally, they call attention to the need to adapt evaluation findings for a variety of audiences to ensure accessibility and utility for enhancing future practice.

Low levels of exposure to libby amphibole asbestos and localized pleural thickening.

PubMed

Christensen, Krista Yorita; Bateson, Thomas F; Kopylev, Leonid

2013-11-01

To explore the relationship between low levels of exposure to Libby amphibole asbestos (LAA) and pleural abnormalities, specifically localized pleural thickening (LPT). Three studies presenting the risks associated with quantitative LAA exposure estimates were reviewed, paying particular attention to lower exposure ranges. Studies reviewed were conducted among workers exposed to LAA at mining and milling operations in Libby, Montana, at a vermiculite processing facility in Marysville, Ohio, and community residents exposed to LAA from a vermiculite processing facility in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Pleural abnormalities were evaluated using radiographs. Despite differences in study populations and design, each study found that cumulative inhalation LAA exposure was associated with increased risk of LPT even at low levels of exposure. Inhalation exposure to LAA is associated with increased risk of LPT even at the lowest levels of exposure in each study.

Providing Quantitative Information and a Nudge to Undergo Stool Testing in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Schwartz, Peter H; Perkins, Susan M; Schmidt, Karen K; Muriello, Paul F; Althouse, Sandra; Rawl, Susan M

2017-08-01

Guidelines recommend that patient decision aids should provide quantitative information about probabilities of potential outcomes, but the impact of this information is unknown. Behavioral economics suggests that patients confused by quantitative information could benefit from a "nudge" towards one option. We conducted a pilot randomized trial to estimate the effect sizes of presenting quantitative information and a nudge. Primary care patients (n = 213) eligible for colorectal cancer screening viewed basic screening information and were randomized to view (a) quantitative information (quantitative module), (b) a nudge towards stool testing with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (nudge module), (c) neither a nor b, or (d) both a and b. Outcome measures were perceived colorectal cancer risk, screening intent, preferred test, and decision conflict, measured before and after viewing the decision aid, and screening behavior at 6 months. Patients viewing the quantitative module were more likely to be screened than those who did not ( P = 0.012). Patients viewing the nudge module had a greater increase in perceived colorectal cancer risk than those who did not ( P = 0.041). Those viewing the quantitative module had a smaller increase in perceived risk than those who did not ( P = 0.046), and the effect was moderated by numeracy. Among patients with high numeracy who did not view the nudge module, those who viewed the quantitative module had a greater increase in intent to undergo FIT ( P = 0.028) than did those who did not. The limitations of this study were the limited sample size and single healthcare system. Adding quantitative information to a decision aid increased uptake of colorectal cancer screening, while adding a nudge to undergo FIT did not increase uptake. Further research on quantitative information in decision aids is warranted.

[Quantitative risk assessment of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China].

PubMed

Cao, Mengsi; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Lishi; Yan, Weixing

2016-02-01

To assess the quantitative risk of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) dietary exposure from edible fats and oils in China. One hundred samples of edible fats and oils were collected from the supermarkets and the farmers markets in 11 provinces of China from December in 2013 to May in 2014. Then they were tested for EU15+1 PAHs (16 PAHs were controlled in priority by European Food Safety Authority) by two test methods which were QuECHERS-GC-MS-MS and GPC-HPLC-FLD. Data of PAHs concentration and edible fats and oils consumption which were from Chinese National Nutrition and Health Survey in 2002 were combined to evaluate carcinogenic risk of PAHs in edible fats and oils by the method of margin of exposure (MOE). In this process, we divided the population into 6 groups, namely male adults (older than 18 years old), female adults (older than 18), male youths (13-17), female youths (13-17), school-agers (6-12) and preschoolers (2-5), and thought carcinogenicity as the critical toxicity end point of PAHs. Two quantitative risk assessment methods, i.e. point assessment and probability assessment, were used to evaluate the dietary exposure and MOEs. EU15+1 PAHs in one of 100 samples were not detected, other samples were polluted in different degrees; the detection rates were 3%-98% and the average contents were 0.26-3.26 μg/kg. The results of PAHs dietary exposure from both of point assessment and probability assessment were the same. The average exposures of PAH8 were as the following: male adults were 10.03 and (9.34 ± 12.61) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1)(The former was from point assessment and the latter from probability assessment, the same below), female adults were 9.95 and (9.60 ± 15.04) ng · kg(-1)·d (-1), male youths were 11.09 and (10.84 ± 16.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), female youths were 10.06 and (9.58 ± 12.87) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1),school-agers were 15.29 and (15.62 ± 25.54) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1), preschoolers were 19.27 and (19.22 ± 28.91) ng·kg(-1)·d(-1). MOEs of mean and 50% exposure levels in different group of people were more than 10,000, while MOEs of 95% exposure levels in school-agers and preschoolers were less than 10,000. For general consumers, the health risk of PAHs exposure is very low. However, for high-end consumers (95% exposure level) from the sensitive groups (school-ager and preschooler) has a potential health risk.

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

Expert review on poliovirus immunity and transmission.

PubMed

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Chumakov, Konstantin M; Halsey, Neal A; Hovi, Tapani; Minor, Philip D; Modlin, John F; Patriarca, Peter A; Sutter, Roland W; Wright, Peter F; Wassilak, Steven G F; Cochi, Stephen L; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Thompson, Kimberly M

2013-04-01

Successfully managing risks to achieve wild polioviruses (WPVs) eradication and address the complexities of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation to stop all cases of paralytic poliomyelitis depends strongly on our collective understanding of poliovirus immunity and transmission. With increased shifting from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), numerous risk management choices motivate the need to understand the tradeoffs and uncertainties and to develop models to help inform decisions. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted a meeting of international experts in April 2010 to review the available literature relevant to poliovirus immunity and transmission. This expert review evaluates 66 OPV challenge studies and other evidence to support the development of quantitative models of poliovirus transmission and potential outbreaks. This review focuses on characterization of immunity as a function of exposure history in terms of susceptibility to excretion, duration of excretion, and concentration of excreted virus. We also discuss the evidence of waning of host immunity to poliovirus transmission, the relationship between the concentration of poliovirus excreted and infectiousness, the importance of different transmission routes, and the differences in transmissibility between OPV and WPV. We discuss the limitations of the available evidence for use in polio risk models, and conclude that despite the relatively large number of studies on immunity, very limited data exist to directly support quantification of model inputs related to transmission. Given the limitations in the evidence, we identify the need for expert input to derive quantitative model inputs from the existing data. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

2009-01-01

Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

A Quantitative MR Imaging Assessment of Leukoencephalopathy in Children Treated for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia without Irradiation

PubMed Central

Reddick, Wilburn E.; Glass, John O.; Helton, Kathleen J.; Langston, James W.; Li, Chin-Shang; Pui, Ching-Hon

2008-01-01

PURPOSE Intravenous methotrexate (IV-MTX), an effective treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), has a significant toxic effect on the central nervous system, with leukoencephalopathy (LE) being the most common form. The purpose of this study was to use objective quantitative MR imaging to prospectively assess the temporal evolution of LE extent and intensity. METHODS Forty-five children (low-risk, 10 mol/L/12F; mean age, 5.0 years at diagnosis; standard/high-risk, 11 mol/L/12F; mean age, 9.2 years at diagnosis) treated for ALL on a single institutional protocol were evaluated longitudinally to assess the extent of LE (proportion of white matter impacted) through tissue segmentation and the relative intensity of LE through relative elevations in T1 and T2 relaxation rates. One-sided Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests were used to assess differences in quantitative measures at 4 different points in therapy both within and between risk arms. RESULTS The proportion of white matter affected in both patient groups increased significantly with additional courses of IV-MTX, whereas the intensity of LE also increased steadily; however, both the intensity and extent of LE declined significantly ∼1.5 years after completion of IV-MTX. Increases in the T1 and T2 relaxation rates above normal-appearing white matter were significantly correlated with each other and were dependent on the proportion of white matter affected. CONCLUSION Higher doses and more courses of IV-MTX were associated with increased intensity and extent of LE. There was a significant reduction in both the intensity and extent of LE after completion of therapy. The impact of these changes on neurocognitive functioning and quality of life in survivors remains to be determined. PMID:16219848

Interactive graphics for expressing health risks: development and qualitative evaluation.

PubMed

Ancker, Jessica S; Chan, Connie; Kukafka, Rita

2009-01-01

Recent findings suggest that interactive game-like graphics might be useful in communicating probabilities. We developed a prototype for a risk communication module, focusing on eliciting users' preferences for different interactive graphics and assessing usability and user interpretations. Feedback from five focus groups was used to design the graphics. The final version displayed a matrix of square buttons; clicking on any button allowed the user to see whether the stick figure underneath was affected by the health outcome. When participants used this interaction to learn about a risk, they expressed more emotional responses, both positive and negative, than when viewing any static graphic or numerical description of a risk. Their responses included relief about small risks and concern about large risks. The groups also commented on static graphics: arranging the figures affected by disease randomly throughout a group of figures made it more difficult to judge the proportion affected but often was described as more realistic. Interactive graphics appear to have potential for expressing risk magnitude as well as the feeling of risk. This affective impact could be useful in increasing perceived threat of high risks, calming fears about low risks, or comparing risks. Quantitative studies are planned to assess the effect on perceived risks and estimated risk magnitudes.

Strategies facilitating practice change in pediatric cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Robinson, Paula D; Dupuis, Lee L; Tomlinson, George; Phillips, Bob; Greenberg, Mark; Sung, Lillian

2016-09-01

By conducting a systematic review, we describe strategies to actively disseminate knowledge or facilitate practice change among healthcare providers caring for children with cancer and we evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies. We searched Ovid Medline, EMBASE and PsychINFO. Fully published primary studies were included if they evaluated one or more professional intervention strategies to actively disseminate knowledge or facilitate practice change in pediatric cancer or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Data extracted included study characteristics and strategies evaluated. In studies with a quantitative analysis of patient outcomes, the relationship between study-level characteristics and statistically significant primary analyses was evaluated. Of 20 644 titles and abstracts screened, 146 studies were retrieved in full and 60 were included. In 20 studies, quantitative evaluation of patient outcomes was examined and a primary outcome was stated. Eighteen studies were 'before and after' design; there were no randomized studies. All studies were at risk for bias. Interrupted time series was never the primary analytic approach. No specific strategy type was successful at improving patient outcomes. Literature describing strategies to facilitate practice change in pediatric cancer is emerging. However, major methodological limitations exist. Studies with robust designs are required to identify effective strategies to effect practice change. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantitative crystalline silica exposure assessment for a historical cohort epidemiologic study in the German porcelain industry.

PubMed

Birk, Thomas; Guldner, Karlheinz; Mundt, Kenneth A; Dahmann, Dirk; Adams, Robert C; Parsons, William

2010-09-01

A time-dependent quantitative exposure assessment of silica exposure among nearly 18,000 German porcelain workers was conducted. Results will be used to evaluate exposure-response disease risks. Over 8000 historical industrial hygiene (IH) measurements with original sampling and analysis protocols from 1954-2006 were obtained from the German Berufs- genossenschaft der keramischen-und Glas-Industrie (BGGK) and used to construct a job exposure matrix (JEM). Early measurements from different devices were converted to modern gravimetric equivalent values. Conversion factors were derived from parallel historical measurements and new side-by-side measurements using historical and modern devices in laboratory dust tunnels and active workplace locations. Exposure values were summarized and smoothed using LOESS regression; estimates for early years were derived using backward extrapolation techniques. Employee work histories were merged with JEM values to determine cumulative crystalline silica exposures for cohort members. Average silica concentrations were derived for six primary similar exposure groups (SEGs) for 1938-2006. Over 40% of the cohort accumulated <0.5 mg; just over one-third accumulated >1 mg/m(3)-years. Nearly 5000 workers had cumulative crystalline silica estimates >1.5 mg/m(3)-years. Similar numbers of men and women fell into each cumulative exposure category, except for 1113 women and 1567 men in the highest category. Over half of those hired before 1960 accumulated >3 mg/m(3)-years crystalline silica compared with 4.9% of those hired after 1960. Among those ever working in the materials preparation area, half accumulated >3 mg/m(3)-year compared with 12% of those never working in this area. Quantitative respirable silica exposures were estimated for each member of this cohort, including employment periods for which sampling used now obsolete technologies. Although individual cumulative exposure estimates ranged from background to about 40 mg/m(3)-years, many of these estimates reflect long-term exposures near modern exposure limit values, allowing direct evaluation of lung cancer and silicosis risks near these limits without extrapolation. This quantitative exposure assessment is the largest to date in the porcelain industry.

Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

PubMed Central

Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

1984-01-01

A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: HSPF Setup, Application, and Calibration of Flows and Microbial Fate and Transport on an Example Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) infrastructure that automates the manual process of characterizing transport of pathogens and microorganisms, from the source of release to a point of exposure, has been developed by loosely configuring a set of modules and process-...

78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-11

... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting; ...

2017-08-18

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

Racial Differences in Quantitative Measures of Area and Volumetric Breast Density

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Anne Marie; Keller, Brad M.; Pantalone, Lauren M.; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Synnestvedt, Marie; Conant, Emily F.; Armstrong, Katrina; Kontos, Despina

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Increased breast density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer and also decreases the sensitivity of mammographic screening. The purpose of our study was to compare breast density for black and white women using quantitative measures. Methods: Breast density was assessed among 5282 black and 4216 white women screened using digital mammography. Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density was obtained from radiologists’ reports. Quantitative measures for dense area, area percent density (PD), dense volume, and volume percent density were estimated using validated, automated software. Breast density was categorized as dense or nondense based on BI-RADS categories or based on values above and below the median for quantitative measures. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of having dense breasts by race, adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, menopause status, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, parity and age at first birth, and current hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: There was a statistically significant interaction of race and BMI on breast density. After accounting for age, BMI, and breast cancer risk factors, black women had statistically significantly greater odds of high breast density across all quantitative measures (eg, PD nonobese odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02 to 1.37, P = .03, PD obese OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.53, P = .02). There was no statistically significant difference in BI-RADS density by race. Conclusions: After accounting for age, BMI, and other risk factors, black women had higher breast density than white women across all quantitative measures previously associated with breast cancer risk. These results may have implications for risk assessment and screening. PMID:27130893

Distinguishing nanomaterial particles from background airborne particulate matter for quantitative exposure assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono-Ogasawara, Mariko; Serita, Fumio; Takaya, Mitsutoshi

2009-10-01

As the production of engineered nanomaterials quantitatively expands, the chance that workers involved in the manufacturing process will be exposed to nanoparticles also increases. A risk management system is needed for workplaces in the nanomaterial industry based on the precautionary principle. One of the problems in the risk management system is difficulty of exposure assessment. In this article, examples of exposure assessment in nanomaterial industries are reviewed with a focus on distinguishing engineered nanomaterial particles from background nanoparticles in workplace atmosphere. An approach by JNIOSH (Japan National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health) to quantitatively measure exposure to carbonaceous nanomaterials is also introduced. In addition to real-time measurements and qualitative analysis by electron microscopy, quantitative chemical analysis is necessary for quantitatively assessing exposure to nanomaterials. Chemical analysis is suitable for quantitative exposure measurement especially at facilities with high levels of background NPs.

The risk factors for avian influenza on poultry farms: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Youming; Li, Peng; Wu, Yangli; Sun, Xiangdong; Yu, Kangzhen; Yu, Chuanhua; Qin, Aijian

2014-11-01

Avian influenza is a severe threat both to humans and poultry, but so far, no systematic review on the identification and evaluation of the risk factors of avian influenza infection has been published. The objective of this meta-analysis is to provide evidence for decision-making and further research on AI prevention through identifying the risk factors associated with AI infection on poultry farms. The results from 15 selected studies on risk factors for AI infections on poultry farms were analyzed quantitatively by meta-analysis. Open water source (OR=2.89), infections on nearby farms (OR=4.54), other livestock (OR=1.90) and disinfection of farm (OR=0.54) have significant association with AI infection on poultry farms. The subgroup analysis results indicate that there exist different risk factors for AI infections in different types of farms. The main risk factors for AI infection in poultry farms are environmental conditions (open water source, infections on nearby farms), keeping other livestock on the same farm and no disinfection of the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2011-01-01

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Evaluation of self-combustion risk in tire derived aggregate fills.

PubMed

Arroyo, Marcos; San Martin, Ignacio; Olivella, Sebastian; Saaltink, Maarten W

2011-01-01

Lightweight tire derived aggregate (TDA) fills are a proven recycling outlet for waste tires, requiring relatively low cost waste processing and being competitively priced against other lightweight fill alternatives. However its value has been marred as several TDA fills have self-combusted during the early applications of this technique. An empirical review of these cases led to prescriptive guidelines from the ASTM aimed at avoiding this problem. This approach has been successful in avoiding further incidents of self-combustion. However, at present there remains no rational method available to quantify self-combustion risk in TDA fills. This means that it is not clear which aspects of the ASTM guidelines are essential and which are accessory. This hinders the practical use of TDA fills despite their inherent advantages as lightweight fill. Here a quantitative approach to self-combustion risk evaluation is developed and illustrated with a parametric analysis of an embankment case. This is later particularized to model a reported field self-combustion case. The approach is based on the available experimental observations and incorporates well-tested methodological (ISO corrosion evaluation) and theoretical tools (finite element analysis of coupled heat and mass flow). The results obtained offer clear insights into the critical aspects of the problem, allowing already some meaningful recommendations for guideline revision. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Anticipated health behaviour changes and perceived control in response to disclosure of genetic risk of breast and ovarian cancer: a quantitative survey study among women in the UK

PubMed Central

Meisel, Susanne F; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Hann, Katie E J; Wardle, Jane; Lanceley, Anne

2017-01-01

Background Genetic risk assessment for breast cancer and ovarian cancer (BCOC) is expected to make major inroads into mainstream clinical practice. It is important to evaluate the potential impact on women ahead of its implementation in order to maximise health benefits, as predictive genetic testing without adequate support could lead to adverse psychological and behavioural responses to risk disclosure. Objective To examine anticipated health behaviour changes and perceived control to disclosure of genetic risk for BCOC and establish demographic and person-specific correlates of adverse anticipated responses in a population-based sample of women. Design Cross-sectional quantitative survey study carried out by the UK Office for National Statistics in January and March 2014. Setting Face-to-face computer-assisted interviews conducted by trained researchers in participants’ homes. Participants 837 women randomly chosen from households across the UK identified from the Royal Mail’s Postcode Address File. Outcome measures Anticipated health behaviour change and perceived control to disclosure of BCOC risk. Results In response to a genetic test result, most women (72%) indicated ‘I would try harder to have a healthy lifestyle’, and over half (55%) felt ‘it would give me more control over my life’. These associations were independent of demographic factors or perceived risk of BCOC in Bonferroni-corrected multivariate analyses. However, a minority of women (14%) felt ‘it isn’t worth making lifestyle changes’ and that ‘I would feel less free to make choices in my life’ (16%) in response to BCOC risk disclosure. The former belief was more likely to be held by women who were educated below university degree level (P<0.001) after adjusting for other demographic and person-specific correlates. Conclusion These findings indicate that women in the UK largely anticipate that they would engage in positive health behaviour changes in response to BCOC risk disclosure. PMID:29275340

Using quantitative risk information in decisions about statins: a qualitative study in a community setting.

PubMed

Polak, Louisa; Green, Judith

2015-04-01

A large literature informs guidance for GPs about communicating quantitative risk information so as to facilitate shared decision making. However, relatively little has been written about how patients utilise such information in practice. To understand the role of quantitative risk information in patients' accounts of decisions about taking statins. This was a qualitative study, with participants recruited and interviewed in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 34 participants aged >50 years, all of whom had been offered statins. Data were analysed thematically, using elements of the constant comparative method. Interviewees drew frequently on numerical test results to explain their decisions about preventive medication. In contrast, they seldom mentioned quantitative risk information, and never offered it as a rationale for action. Test results were spoken of as objects of concern despite an often-explicit absence of understanding, so lack of understanding seems unlikely to explain the non-use of risk estimates. Preventive medication was seen as 'necessary' either to treat test results, or because of personalised, unequivocal advice from a doctor. This study's findings call into question the assumption that people will heed and use numerical risk information once they understand it; these data highlight the need to consider the ways in which different kinds of knowledge are used in practice in everyday contexts. There was little evidence from this study that understanding probabilistic risk information was a necessary or valued condition for making decisions about statin use. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Evaluation of a portable automated serum chemistry analyzer for field assessment of harlequin ducks, Histrionicus histrionicus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoskopf, Michael K.; Mulcahy, Daniel M.; Esler, Daniel N.

2010-01-01

A portable analytical chemistry analyzer was used to make field assessments of wild harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus) in association with telemetry studies of winter survival in Prince William Sound, Alaska. We compared serum chemistry results obtained on-site with results from a traditional laboratory. Particular attention was paid to serum glucose and potassium concentrations as potential indicators of high-risk surgical candidates based on evaluation of the field data. The median differential for glucose values ( = 8 2) between methods was 0.6 mmol/L (quartiles 0.3 and 0.9 mmol/L) with the median value higher when assayed on site. Analysis of potassium on site returned a median of 2.7 mmol/L ( = 8 8 ; quartiles 2.4 and 3.0 mmol/L). Serum potassium values were too low for quantitation by the traditional laboratory. Changes in several serum chemistry values following a three-day storm during the study support the value of on site evaluation of serum potassium to identify presurgical patients with increased anesthetic risk.

The health impact of trade and investment agreements: a quantitative systematic review and network co-citation analysis.

PubMed

Barlow, Pepita; McKee, Martin; Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David

2017-03-08

Regional trade agreements are major international policy instruments that shape macro-economic and political systems. There is widespread debate as to whether and how these agreements pose risks to public health. Here we perform a comprehensive systematic review of quantitative studies of the health impact of trade and investment agreements. We identified studies from searches in PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Global Health Online. Research articles were eligible for inclusion if they were quantitative studies of the health impacts of trade and investment agreements or policy. We systematically reviewed study findings, evaluated quality using the Quality Assessment Tool from the Effective Public Health Practice Project, and performed network citation analysis to study disciplinary siloes. Seventeen quantitative studies met our inclusion criteria. There was consistent evidence that implementing trade agreements was associated with increased consumption of processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Granting import licenses for patented drugs was associated with increased access to pharmaceuticals. Implementing trade agreements and associated policies was also correlated with higher cardiovascular disease incidence and higher Body Mass Index (BMI), whilst correlations with tobacco consumption, under-five mortality, maternal mortality, and life expectancy were inconclusive. Overall, the quality of studies is weak or moderately weak, and co-citation analysis revealed a relative isolation of public health from economics. We identified limitations in existing studies which preclude definitive conclusions of the health impacts of regional trade and investment agreements. Few address unobserved confounding, and many possible consequences and mechanisms linking trade and investment agreements to health remain poorly understood. Results from our co-citation analysis suggest scope for greater interdisciplinary collaboration. Notwithstanding these limitations, our results find evidence that trade agreements pose some significant health risks. Health protections in trade and investment treaties may mitigate these impacts.

Assessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar.

PubMed

De la Torre, A; Bosch, J; Iglesias, I; Muñoz, M J; Mur, L; Martínez-López, B; Martínez, M; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2015-06-01

The presence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region and Russian Federation has increased concerns that wild boars may introduce the ASF virus into the European Union (EU). This study describes a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the risk of ASF introduction into the EU by wild boar movements based on the following risk estimators: the susceptible population of (1) wild boars and (2) domestic pigs in the country of origin; the outbreak density in (3) wild boars and (4) domestic pigs in the countries of origin, the (5) suitable habitat for wild boars along the EU border; and the distance between the EU border and the nearest ASF outbreak in (6) wild boars or (7) domestic pigs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential risk estimators. The highest risk was found to be concentrated in Finland, Romania, Latvia and Poland, and wild boar habitat and outbreak density were the two most important risk estimators. Animal health authorities in at-risk countries should be aware of these risk estimators and should communicate closely with wild boar hunters and pig farmers to rapidly detect and control ASF. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

[A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

2015-05-01

To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

Assessment of the risk of introducing foot-and-mouth disease into Panama via a ferry operating between Cartagena, Colombia and Colon, Panama.

PubMed

White, W R; Crom, R L; Walker, K D

1996-07-23

It should be emphasized that the proposed ferry hazard categorizations do not represent absolute risks for introducing FMD into Panama, but instead provide a systematic method for comparing and estimating risks in the absence of quantitative data. A hazard rating of high may not necessarily represent a high quantitative risk for the introduction of FMD, but is high when compared to other scenarios. A low hazard rating may estimate a low quantitative risk of importing FMD, but economic consequences of a potential outbreak should also be considered. When further data become available, a more complete assessment of the risks of the Crucero Express compared to airplanes, cargo boats, and small boats can be performed. At present, the risk of the Crucero Express is at least as low as the other transport modes described above. Since vehicles are not presently allowed transport from Colombia to Panama, they present no risk to Panama, but with proper cleaning and disinfection procedures, vehicles can be permitted with low risk. However, the Crucero Express can carry 125 vehicles, and thorough cleaning and disinfection of this many cars will require modern and efficient facilities not yet present at either port.

Quantitative assessment of human health risk posed by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban road dust.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-01-01

Among the numerous pollutants present in urban road dust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants and can pose cancer risk to humans. The primary aim of the study was to develop a quantitative model to assess the cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust based on traffic and land use factors and thereby to characterise the risk posed by PAHs in fine (<150μm) and coarse (>150μm) particles. The risk posed by PAHs was quantified as incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), which was modelled as a function of traffic volume and percentages of different urban land uses. The study outcomes highlighted the fact that cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust is primarily influenced by PAHs associated with fine solids. Heavy PAHs with 5 to 6 benzene rings, especially dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (D[a]A) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in the mixture contribute most to the risk. The quantitative model developed based on traffic and land use factors will contribute to informed decision making in relation to the management of risk posed by PAHs in urban road dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative Evaluation of Quantitative Test Methods for Gases on a Hard Surface

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF QUANTITATIVE TEST METHODS FOR GASES ON A HARD SURFACE ECBC-TR-1426 Vipin Rastogi...1 COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF QUANTITATIVE TEST METHODS FOR GASES ON A HARD SURFACE 1. INTRODUCTION Members of the U.S. Environmental...Generator 4 2.4 Experimental Design Each quantitative method was performed three times on three consecutive days. For the CD runs, three

Providing web-based mental health services to at-risk women

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background We examined the feasibility of providing web-based mental health services, including synchronous internet video conferencing of an evidence-based support/education group, to at-risk women, specifically poor lone mothers. The objectives of this study were to: (i) adapt a face-to-face support/education group intervention to a web-based format for lone mothers, and (ii) evaluate lone mothers' response to web-based services, including an online video conferencing group intervention program. Methods Participating mothers were recruited through advertisements. To adapt the face-to-face intervention to a web-based format, we evaluated participant motivation through focus group/key informant interviews (n = 7), adapted the intervention training manual for a web-based environment and provided a computer training manual. To evaluate response to web-based services, we provided the intervention to two groups of lone mothers (n = 15). Pre-post quantitative evaluation of mood, self-esteem, social support and parenting was done. Post intervention follow up interviews explored responses to the group and to using technology to access a health service. Participants received $20 per occasion of data collection. Interviews were taped, transcribed and content analysis was used to code and interpret the data. Adherence to the intervention protocol was evaluated. Results Mothers participating in this project experienced multiple difficulties, including financial and mood problems. We adapted the intervention training manual for use in a web-based group environment and ensured adherence to the intervention protocol based on viewing videoconferencing group sessions and discussion with the leaders. Participant responses to the group intervention included decreased isolation, and increased knowledge and confidence in themselves and their parenting; the responses closely matched those of mothers who obtained same service in face-to-face groups. Pre-and post-group quantitative evaluations did not show significant improvements on measures, although the study was not powered to detect these. Conclusions We demonstrated that an evidence-based group intervention program for lone mothers developed and evaluated in face-to-face context transferred well to an online video conferencing format both in terms of group process and outcomes. PMID:21854563

Providing web-based mental health services to at-risk women.

PubMed

Lipman, Ellen L; Kenny, Meghan; Marziali, Elsa

2011-08-19

We examined the feasibility of providing web-based mental health services, including synchronous internet video conferencing of an evidence-based support/education group, to at-risk women, specifically poor lone mothers. The objectives of this study were to: (i) adapt a face-to-face support/education group intervention to a web-based format for lone mothers, and (ii) evaluate lone mothers' response to web-based services, including an online video conferencing group intervention program. Participating mothers were recruited through advertisements. To adapt the face-to-face intervention to a web-based format, we evaluated participant motivation through focus group/key informant interviews (n = 7), adapted the intervention training manual for a web-based environment and provided a computer training manual. To evaluate response to web-based services, we provided the intervention to two groups of lone mothers (n = 15). Pre-post quantitative evaluation of mood, self-esteem, social support and parenting was done. Post intervention follow up interviews explored responses to the group and to using technology to access a health service. Participants received $20 per occasion of data collection. Interviews were taped, transcribed and content analysis was used to code and interpret the data. Adherence to the intervention protocol was evaluated. Mothers participating in this project experienced multiple difficulties, including financial and mood problems. We adapted the intervention training manual for use in a web-based group environment and ensured adherence to the intervention protocol based on viewing videoconferencing group sessions and discussion with the leaders. Participant responses to the group intervention included decreased isolation, and increased knowledge and confidence in themselves and their parenting; the responses closely matched those of mothers who obtained same service in face-to-face groups. Pre-and post-group quantitative evaluations did not show significant improvements on measures, although the study was not powered to detect these. We demonstrated that an evidence-based group intervention program for lone mothers developed and evaluated in face-to-face context transferred well to an online video conferencing format both in terms of group process and outcomes.

The effect of hemodialysis on balance measurements and risk of fall.

PubMed

Erken, Ertugrul; Ozelsancak, Ruya; Sahin, Safak; Yılmaz, Emine Ece; Torun, Dilek; Leblebici, Berrin; Kuyucu, Yunus Emre; Sezer, Siren

2016-10-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have increased risk of falls and fall-related complications. Other than aging and factors related to chronic kidney disease, treatment of hemodialysis may also contribute to this increased risk. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the impairment of balance after a session of hemodialysis with a quantitative assessment and reveal an increased fall risk that would possibly be related to treatment of hemodialysis for patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Fifty-six patients with ESRD on chronic hemodialysis program and 53 healthy individuals were involved in this study. Fall Index percentages were calculated, and fall risk categories were determined for all patients and healthy controls using Tetrax posturography device (Sunlight Medical Ltd Israel). The patient group was evaluated twice for balance, before and after a routine session of hemodialysis. Fall Index scores of healthy controls were lower than that of ESRD patients (p = 0.001). In the patient group, we found the mean Fall Index to be significantly higher at the post-dialysis assessment compared to the pre-dialysis assessment (p = 0.003). The number of patients with high risk of falling also increased at the post-dialysis assessment yet the difference did not reach significance. Fall Index was correlated with the increase in age only at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.038). Patients with better dialysis adequacy had significantly lower Fall Index scores than the others at the pre-dialysis balance measurement (p = 0.004). The difference was not significant at the post-dialysis measurement. In the current study, we evaluated the balance of ESRD patients before and after a routine session of hemodialysis treatment. This is the first study to investigate the effect of hemodialysis on balance, using an electronic posturographic balance system. We found the Fall Index score to be significantly higher after hemodialysis, indicating a negative effect of hemodialysis on postural stability. As expected, our data showed an increased Fall Index score correlated with the increase in age both in ESRD patients and in healthy controls. However, the correlation with age was not observed for the patient group at the post-dialysis balance measurement. We might conceive that young patients with ESRD are also prone to fall risk after a session of hemodialysis. Methods that provide quantitative assessment for fall risk could be rather beneficial for high-risk populations such as patients on maintenance hemodialysis.

Quantitative Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-24

Quantitative Risks Technical Report SERC -2015-TR-040-4 February 24, 2015 Principal Investigator: Dr. Gary Witus, Wayne State...0007, RT 107 Report No. SERC -2015-TR-040-4 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of...Research Center ( SERC ) is a federally funded University Affiliated Research Center managed by Stevens Institute of Technology. This material is

Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Roger D. Magarey; William D. Smith

2012-01-01

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in...

Quantitative evaluation of palatal bone thickness for the placement of orthodontic miniscrews in adults with different facial types

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunji; Qiu, Ye; Liu, Henglang; He, Jinlong; Fan, Xiaoping

2017-01-01

Objectives: To quantitatively evaluate palatal bone thickness in adults with different facial types using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). Methods: The CBCT volumetric data of 123 adults (mean age, 26.8 years) collected between August 2014 and August 2016 was retrospectively studied. The subjects were divided into a low-angle group (39 subjects), a normal-angle group (48 subjects) and a high-angle group (36 subjects) based on facial types assigned by cephalometric radiography. The thickness of the palatal bone was assessed at designated points. A repeated-measure analysis of variance (rm-ANOVA) test was used to test the relationship between facial types and palatal bone thickness. Results: Compared to the low-angle group, the high-angle group had significantly thinner palatal bones (p<0.05), except for the anterior-midline, anterior-medial and middle-midline areas. Conclusion: The safest zone for the placement of microimplants is the anterior part of the paramedian palate. Clinicians should pay special attention to the probability of thinner bone plates and the risk of perforation in high-angle patients. PMID:28917071

Alcohol Production, Prevention Strategies, and Inmate Knowledge About the Risk for Botulism From Pruno Consumption in a Correctional Facility—Arizona, 2013

PubMed Central

Adams, Laura E.; Yasmin, Seema; Briggs, Graham; Redden, Kore; Silvas, Suzanne; Anderson, Shoana; Weiss, Joli; Tsang, Clarisse A.; Henke, Evan; Francies, Jessica; Herrick, Kristen; Lira, Rosa; Livar, Eugene; Thompson, Gerald; Sunenshine, Rebecca; Robinson, Byron F.; Bisgard, Kristine M.; Komatsu, Kenneth K.

2017-01-01

During July to November 2012, two botulism outbreaks (12 cases total) occurred in one all-male prison; both were associated with illicitly brewed alcohol (pruno) consumption. Inmate surveys were conducted to evaluate and develop prevention and education strategies. Qualitative surveys with open-ended questions were performed among inmates from rooms where outbreaks occurred to learn about pruno consumption. Quantitative surveys assessed knowledge gained after the outbreaks and preferred information sources. For the quantitative surveys, 250 inmates were randomly selected by bed from across the correctional facility and 164 inmates were interviewed. Only 24% of inmates reported any botulism knowledge before the outbreaks and education outreach, whereas 73% reported knowledge after the outbreaks (p < .01). Preferred information sources included handouts/fliers (52%) and the prison television channel (32%). PMID:26285594

The use of comparative duplex PCR in monitoring of patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

PubMed

Slavícková, A; Forsterová, K; Ivánek, R; Cerný, J; Klener, P

2005-01-01

Various quantitative PCR approaches have been utilized during the last years to provide information about the treatment efficacy and the risk of recurrent disease in haematological malignancies. Apart from the frequently used real-time PCR, cost-saving modified standard PCR methods may be applied as well. This report evaluates the utility of the end-point comparative duplex PCR. We have used this method for monitoring of 35 patients with either NHL or CLL and observed a good correlation between quantitative molecular results and clinical outcome. There was also an agreement between comparative duplex PCR and real-time PCR in patients who were monitored by both methods. We therefore believe that use of this technique should be strongly considered instead of simple qualitative detection in monitoring of therapeutic outcome in NHL or CLL patients.

Environmental risk assessment of selected organic chemicals based on TOC test and QSAR estimation models.

PubMed

Chi, Yulang; Zhang, Huanteng; Huang, Qiansheng; Lin, Yi; Ye, Guozhu; Zhu, Huimin; Dong, Sijun

2018-02-01

Environmental risks of organic chemicals have been greatly determined by their persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (PBT) and physicochemical properties. Major regulations in different countries and regions identify chemicals according to their bioconcentration factor (BCF) and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow), which frequently displays a substantial correlation with the sediment sorption coefficient (Koc). Half-life or degradability is crucial for the persistence evaluation of chemicals. Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) estimation models are indispensable for predicting environmental fate and health effects in the absence of field- or laboratory-based data. In this study, 39 chemicals of high concern were chosen for half-life testing based on total organic carbon (TOC) degradation, and two widely accepted and highly used QSAR estimation models (i.e., EPI Suite and PBT Profiler) were adopted for environmental risk evaluation. The experimental results and estimated data, as well as the two model-based results were compared, based on the water solubility, Kow, Koc, BCF and half-life. Environmental risk assessment of the selected compounds was achieved by combining experimental data and estimation models. It was concluded that both EPI Suite and PBT Profiler were fairly accurate in measuring the physicochemical properties and degradation half-lives for water, soil, and sediment. However, the half-lives between the experimental and the estimated results were still not absolutely consistent. This suggests deficiencies of the prediction models in some ways, and the necessity to combine the experimental data and predicted results for the evaluation of environmental fate and risks of pollutants. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development of a patient decision aid for prevention of myocardial infarction in type 2 diabetes - rationale, design and pilot testing.

PubMed

Lenz, Matthias; Kasper, Jürgen; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2009-10-19

Development and testing of a decision aid about prevention of myocardial infarction for persons with type 2 diabetes. Development and testing were guided by the UK Medical Research Council's guidance for the development and evaluation of complex interventions. This comprised a systematic literature review, a focus group of 9 potential providers, modelling a prototype, interviews to qualitatively explore understanding and additional information needs, and revision of the decision aid. The decision aid includes evidence-based information, a tool for individual risk-assessment, worksheets, and an action plan. Five diabetes educators and 15 patients underwent two 60-minutes face-to-face interviews, firstly browsing the decision aid for the first time and then after using it. Both groups differed in their ratings. Overall, the decision aid was rated to present essential information in a complex but understandable and unbiased manner. Difficulties involved understanding of terminology and risk interpretation. "Social status as a risk factor" was the most challenged content by educators but considered as highly important by patients. The risk assessment tool was used inadequately. 5 patients allocated themselves into false risk categories. After revision of the tool, all 12 patients who were recruited for reassessment used the tool correctly. The decision aid was evaluated with diabetes educators and patients. Qualitative data analysis revealed aspects for revision. The decision aid is planned to be part of a shared decision making programme, comprising a strategy for patient counselling and educational modules addressed to providers. Quantitative evaluation is required to assess its effectiveness.

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koontz, Steve; Valentine, Mark; Keeping, Thomas; Edeen, Marybeth; Spetch, William; Dalton, Penni

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Impairments of postural stability, core endurance, fall index and functional mobility skills in patients with patello femoral pain syndrome.

PubMed

Yilmaz Yelvar, Gul Deniz; Çirak, Yasemin; Dalkilinç, Murat; Demir, Yasemin Parlak; Baltaci, Gul; Kömürcü, Mahmut; Yelvar, Gul Deniz Yilmaz

2016-06-30

Postural control allows performance of daily and sports activities. The previous studies show that postural sway inceases in orthopaedic injuries such as osteoarthritis and total knee arthroplasty. To compare postural sway, risk of falling and function between individuals with and without patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFS). This study included 22 subjects with patellofemoral pain syndrome, age-matched pain-free 22 females serving as a control group. Visual anolog scale and Kujala were used to evaluate the pain. Posturographic assesment was performed by Tetrax posturographic device. Biering Modified Sorenson test for extensor endurance and sit-up test for flexor endurance were used for the evaluation of trunk endurance. Timed get-up and go test was used for lower extremity function. The Student's t Test was used to compare variables between the groups. The Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to examine correlation between the quantitative variables. Postural sway included eyes open without pillow, eyes open on pillow, eyes closed on pillow, risk of falling, function and postural stabilization included flexor endurance, extansor endurance are impared in patient with patellofemoral pain syndrome when compare to controls. In subjects with PFPS increased postural sway significantly associated with body mass index (r= 0.52), pain duration (r= 0.43), postural control (extansor endurance) (r= -0.50) and risk of falling (r= 0.62) on pillow with open eyes. In addition we found function significantly related with postural control (extansor endurance and flexor endurance) (r= -0.59 and r= -0.59) and risk of falling (r= 0.77)CONCLUSIONS: Decreased neuromuscular control of the trunk core and increased postural sway and falling risk were found in patients with PFPS. Patients may be evaluated for deficits in postural control and falling risk before treatment.

Blood color is influenced by inflammation and independently predicts survival in hemodialysis patients: quantitative evaluation of blood color.

PubMed

Shibata, Masanori; Nagai, Kojiro; Doi, Toshio; Tawada, Hideo; Taniguchi, Shinkichi

2012-11-01

Blood color of dialysis patients can be seen routinely. Darkened blood color is often observed in critically ill patients generally because of decreased oxygen saturation, but little is known about the other factors responsible for the color intensity. In addition, quantitative blood color examination has not been performed yet. Therefore, no one has evaluated the predictive power of blood color. The aim of this study was to evaluate if blood color darkness reflects some medical problems and is associated with survival disadvantage. Study design is a prospective cohort study. One hundred sixty-seven patients were enrolled in this study. Quantification of blood color was done using a reflected light colorimeter. Demographic and clinical data were collected to find out the factors that can be related to blood color. Follow-ups were performed for 2 years to analyze the risk factors for their survival. Regression analysis showed that C-reactive protein and white blood cell count were negatively correlated with blood color. In addition, blood color was positively correlated with mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and serum sodium concentration as well as blood oxygen saturation. During a follow-up, 34 (20.4%) patients died. Cox regression analysis revealed that darkened blood color was an independent significant risk factor of mortality in hemodialysis patients as well as low albumin and low Kt/V. These results suggest that inflammation independently affects blood color and quantification of blood color is useful to estimate prognosis in patients undergoing hemodialysis. It is possible that early detection of blood color worsening can improve patients' survival. © 2012, Copyright the Authors. Artificial Organs © 2012, International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Oxytetracycline induces DNA damage and epigenetic changes: a possible risk for human and animal health?

PubMed

Gallo, Adriana; Landi, Rosaria; Rubino, Valentina; Di Cerbo, Alessandro; Giovazzino, Angela; Palatucci, Anna Teresa; Centenaro, Sara; Guidetti, Gianandrea; Canello, Sergio; Cortese, Laura; Ruggiero, Giuseppina; Alessandrini, Andrea; Terrazzano, Giuseppe

2017-01-01

Oxytetracycline (OTC), which is largely employed in zootechnical and veterinary practices to ensure wellness of farmed animals, is partially absorbed within the gastrointestinal tract depositing in several tissues. Therefore, the potential OTC toxicity is relevant when considering the putative risk derived by the entry and accumulation of such drug in human and pet food chain supply. Despite scientific literature highlights several OTC-dependent toxic effects on human and animal health, the molecular mechanisms of such toxicity are still poorly understood. Here, we evaluated DNA damages and epigenetic alterations by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, quantitative polymerase chain reaction, chromatin immuno-precipitation and Western blot analysis. We observed that human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) expressed DNA damage features (activation of ATM and p53, phosphorylation of H2AX and modifications of histone H3 methylation of lysine K4 in the chromatin) after the in vitro exposure to OTC. These changes are linked to a robust inflammatory response indicated by an increased expression of Interferon (IFN)- γ and type 1 superoxide dismutase (SOD1). Our data reveal an unexpected biological in vitro activity of OTC able to modify DNA and chromatin in cultured human PBMC. In this regard, OTC presence in foods of animal origin could represent a potential risk for both the human and animal health.

Computer-based video analysis identifies infants with absence of fidgety movements.

PubMed

Støen, Ragnhild; Songstad, Nils Thomas; Silberg, Inger Elisabeth; Fjørtoft, Toril; Jensenius, Alexander Refsum; Adde, Lars

2017-10-01

BackgroundAbsence of fidgety movements (FMs) at 3 months' corrected age is a strong predictor of cerebral palsy (CP) in high-risk infants. This study evaluates the association between computer-based video analysis and the temporal organization of FMs assessed with the General Movement Assessment (GMA).MethodsInfants were eligible for this prospective cohort study if referred to a high-risk follow-up program in a participating hospital. Video recordings taken at 10-15 weeks post term age were used for GMA and computer-based analysis. The variation of the spatial center of motion, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, was used for quantitative analysis.ResultsOf 241 recordings from 150 infants, 48 (24.1%) were classified with absence of FMs or sporadic FMs using the GMA. The variation of the spatial center of motion (C SD ) during a recording was significantly lower in infants with normal (0.320; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.309, 0.330) vs. absence of or sporadic (0.380; 95% CI 0.361, 0.398) FMs (P<0.001). A triage model with C SD thresholds chosen for sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80% gave a 40% referral rate for GMA.ConclusionQuantitative video analysis during the FMs' period can be used to triage infants at high risk of CP to early intervention or observational GMA.

Relative risk of listeriosis in Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) sites according to age, pregnancy, and ethnicity.

PubMed

Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Jackson, Kelly A; Henao, Olga L; Silk, Benjamin J

2012-06-01

Quantitative estimates of the relative risk (RR) of listeriosis among higher-risk populations and a nuanced understanding of the age-specific risks are crucial for risk assessments, targeted interventions, and policy decisions. The RR of invasive listeriosis was evaluated by age, pregnancy status, and ethnicity using 2004-2009 data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). Nonparametric logistic regression was used to characterize changes in risk with age and ethnicity. Adjusted RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were evaluated using negative binomial generalized linear models. Among non-pregnancy-associated cases, listeriosis incidence rates increased gradually with age (45-59 years: RR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.3-6.8; >85 years: RR, 53.8; 95% CI, 37.3-78.9; reference: 15-44 years). The RR was significantly higher for Hispanics than for non-Hispanics (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5). Among women of reproductive age (15-44 years), pregnant women had a markedly higher listeriosis risk (RR, 114.6; 95% CI, 68.9-205.1) than nonpregnant women. The RR was higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic women, regardless of pregnancy status, and this increased during the study period (2004-2006: RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.3; 2007-2009: RR, 4.8; 95% CI, 3.1-7.1). This study quantifies the increases in risk of listeriosis among older persons, pregnant women, and Hispanics in the United States. Additional research is needed to better describe the independent effects of age on risk while accounting for underlying conditions. These estimates are needed both to optimize risk assessment models and to inform targeted interventions and policy decisions.

Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

2011-01-01

In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

Wargame Simulation Theory and Evaluation Method for Emergency Evacuation of Residents from Urban Waterlogging Disaster Area

PubMed Central

Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Sun, Yingyue; Liu, Xiaojing

2016-01-01

Urban waterlogging seriously threatens the safety of urban residents and properties. Wargame simulation research on resident emergency evacuation from waterlogged areas can determine the effectiveness of emergency response plans for high risk events at low cost. Based on wargame theory and emergency evacuation plans, we used a wargame exercise method, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects, to build an urban waterlogging disaster emergency shelter using a wargame exercise and evaluation model. The simulation was empirically tested in Daoli District of Harbin. The results showed that the wargame simulation scored 96.40 points, evaluated as good. From the simulation results, wargame simulation of urban waterlogging emergency procedures for disaster response can improve the flexibility and capacity for command, management and decision-making in emergency management departments. PMID:28009805

Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

PubMed

Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

2018-03-01

The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

Digital imaging biomarkers feed machine learning for melanoma screening.

PubMed

Gareau, Daniel S; Correa da Rosa, Joel; Yagerman, Sarah; Carucci, John A; Gulati, Nicholas; Hueto, Ferran; DeFazio, Jennifer L; Suárez-Fariñas, Mayte; Marghoob, Ashfaq; Krueger, James G

2017-07-01

We developed an automated approach for generating quantitative image analysis metrics (imaging biomarkers) that are then analysed with a set of 13 machine learning algorithms to generate an overall risk score that is called a Q-score. These methods were applied to a set of 120 "difficult" dermoscopy images of dysplastic nevi and melanomas that were subsequently excised/classified. This approach yielded 98% sensitivity and 36% specificity for melanoma detection, approaching sensitivity/specificity of expert lesion evaluation. Importantly, we found strong spectral dependence of many imaging biomarkers in blue or red colour channels, suggesting the need to optimize spectral evaluation of pigmented lesions. © 2016 The Authors. Experimental Dermatology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on heat processing contaminants.

PubMed

Schütte, Katrin; Boeing, Heiner; Hart, Andy; Heeschen, Walther; Reimerdes, Ernst H; Santare, Dace; Skog, Kerstin; Chiodini, Alessandro

2012-11-01

The aim of the European Funded Project BRAFO (benefit-risk analysis of foods) project was to develop a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods based on a common scale of measurement. This publication describes the application of the BRAFO methodology to three different case studies: the formation of acrylamide in potato and cereal based products, the formation of benzo(a)pyrene through smoking and grilling of meat and fish and the heat-treatment of milk. Reference, alternative scenario and target population represented the basic structure to test the tiers of the framework. Various intervention methods intended to reduce acrylamide in potato and cereal products were evaluated against the historical production methods. In conclusion the benefits of the acrylamide-reducing measures were considered prevailing. For benzo(a)pyrene, three illustrated alternative scenarios were evaluated against the most common smoking practice. The alternative scenarios were assessed as delivering benefits, introducing only minimal potential risks. Similar considerations were made for heat treatment of milk where the comparison of the microbiological effects of heat treatment, physico-chemical changes of milk constituents with positive and negative health effects was assessed. In general, based on data available, benefits of the heat treatment were outweighing any risks. Copyright © 2012 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

Return on Scientific Investment - RoSI: a PMO dynamical index proposal for scientific projects performance evaluation and management.

PubMed

Caous, Cristofer André; Machado, Birajara; Hors, Cora; Zeh, Andrea Kaufmann; Dias, Cleber Gustavo; Amaro Junior, Edson

2012-01-01

To propose a measure (index) of expected risks to evaluate and follow up the performance analysis of research projects involving financial and adequate structure parameters for its development. A ranking of acceptable results regarding research projects with complex variables was used as an index to gauge a project performance. In order to implement this method the ulcer index as the basic model to accommodate the following variables was applied: costs, high impact publication, fund raising, and patent registry. The proposed structured analysis, named here as RoSI (Return on Scientific Investment) comprises a pipeline of analysis to characterize the risk based on a modeling tool that comprises multiple variables interacting in semi-quantitatively environments. This method was tested with data from three different projects in our Institution (projects A, B and C). Different curves reflected the ulcer indexes identifying the project that may have a minor risk (project C) related to development and expected results according to initial or full investment. The results showed that this model contributes significantly to the analysis of risk and planning as well as to the definition of necessary investments that consider contingency actions with benefits to the different stakeholders: the investor or donor, the project manager and the researchers.

Adequacy of the default values for skin surface area used for risk assessment and French anthropometric data by a probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Dornic, N; Ficheux, A S; Bernard, A; Roudot, A C

2017-08-01

The notes of guidance for the testing of cosmetic ingredients and their safety evaluation by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS) is a document dedicated to ensuring the safety of European consumers. This contains useful data for risk assessment such as default values for Skin Surface Area (SSA). A more in-depth study of anthropometric data across Europe reveals considerable variations. The default SSA value was derived from a study on the Dutch population, which is known to be one of the tallest nations in the World. This value could be inadequate for shorter populations of Europe. Data were collected in a survey on cosmetic consumption in France. Probabilistic treatment of these data and analysis of the case of methylisothiazolinone, a sensitizer recently evaluated by a deterministic approach submitted to SCCS, suggest that the default value for SSA used in the quantitative risk assessment might not be relevant for a significant share of the French female population. Others female populations of Southern Europe may also be excluded. This is of importance given that some studies show an increasing risk of developping skin sensitization among women. The disparities in anthropometric data across Europe should be taken into consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On September 30, 2011, the draft Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. In the new IRIS process (May 2009), introduced by the EPA Administrator, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices will be made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation draft of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking a new health assessment for biphenyl for the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). The outcome of this project will be a Toxicological Review and IRIS and IRIS Summary of biohenyl that will be entered on the IRIS database. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with environmental contaminants. The IRIS database is relied on for the development of risk ass

Quantitative assessment of isolated rapid eye movement (REM) sleep without atonia without clinical REM sleep behavior disorder: clinical and research implications.

PubMed

Sasai-Sakuma, Taeko; Frauscher, Birgit; Mitterling, Thomas; Ehrmann, Laura; Gabelia, David; Brandauer, Elisabeth; Inoue, Yuichi; Poewe, Werner; Högl, Birgit

2014-09-01

Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep without atonia (RWA) is observed in some patients without a clinical history of REM sleep behavior disorder (RBD). It remains unknown whether these patients meet the refined quantitative electromyographic (EMG) criteria supporting a clinical RBD diagnosis. We quantitatively evaluated EMG activity and investigated its overnight distribution in patients with isolated qualitative RWA. Fifty participants with an incidental polysomnographic finding of RWA (isolated qualitative RWA) were included. Tonic, phasic, and 'any' EMG activity during REM sleep on PSG were quantified retrospectively. Referring to the quantitative cut-off values for a polysomnographic diagnosis of RBD, 7/50 (14%) and 6/50 (12%) of the patients showed phasic and 'any' EMG activity in the mentalis muscle above the respective cut-off values. No patient was above the cut-off value for tonic EMG activity or phasic EMG activity in the anterior tibialis muscles. Patients with RWA above the cut-off value showed higher amounts of RWA during later REM sleep periods. This is the first study showing that some subjects with incidental RWA meet the refined quantitative EMG criteria for a diagnosis of RBD. Future longitudinal studies must investigate whether this subgroup with isolated qualitative RWA is at an increased risk of developing fully expressed RBD and/or neurodegenerative disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

[Assessment of user embracement with risk rating in emergency hospital services].

PubMed

Versa, Gelena Lucinéia Gomes da Silva; Vituri, Dagmar Wilamowius; Buriola, Aline Aparecida; Carlos Aparecido de Oliveira; Matsuda, Laura Misue

2014-09-01

Cross-sectional and quantitative study, conducted in 2013, aiming to evaluate the implementation of User Embracement with Risk Rating (ACCR) in four Emergency Hospital Services. One hundred fifty six nurses participated and answered the questionnaire"User Embracement with Risk Rating". The data were treated through descriptive and inferential statistics, from the Kruskal-Wallis test. The implementation of ACCR was assessed as precarious, mainly due to the lack of referral of low complexity cases to the basic health system, the inadequate physical space for companions and the lack of discussion and periodic assessment of the flow of care in ACCR. The dimension Result of Implementation obtained a slightly higher score and Structure was the dimension with the lowest score. It was concluded that the negative assessments by nursing professionals of the referred dimensions in the investigated sites suggests the need for improvements, especially in the dimension Structure.

[Evaluation of the risk of delayed adverse effects of chronic combined exposure to radiation and chemical factors with the purpose to ensure safety in orbital and exploration space missions].

PubMed

Shafirkin, A V; Mukhamedieva, L N; Tatarkin, S V; Barantseva, M Iu

2012-01-01

The work had the aim to anatomize the existing issues with providing safety in extended orbital and exploration missions for ensuing estimation of actual values of the total radiation risk for the crew, and risks of other delayed effects of simultaneous exposure to ionizing radiation and chemical pollutants in cabin air, and a number of other stressful factors inevitable in space flight. The flow of chronic experiments for separate and combined studies with reproduction of air makeup and radiation doses in actual orbital and predicted exploration missions is outlined. To set safety limits, new approaches should be applied to the description of gradual norm degradation to pathologies in addition to several generalized quantitative indices of adaptation and straining of the regulatory systems, as well as of effectiveness of the compensatory body reserve against separate and combined exposure.

Motivations for genetic testing for lung cancer risk among young smokers.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Lipkus, Isaac M; Sanderson, Saskia C; Shepperd, James; Docherty, Sharron; McBride, Colleen M

2013-11-01

To examine why young people might want to undergo genetic susceptibility testing for lung cancer despite knowing that tested gene variants are associated with small increases in disease risk. The authors used a mixed-method approach to evaluate motives for and against genetic testing and the association between these motivations and testing intentions in 128 college students who smoke. Exploratory factor analysis yielded four reliable factors: Test Scepticism, Test Optimism, Knowledge Enhancement and Smoking Optimism. Test Optimism and Knowledge Enhancement correlated positively with intentions to test in bivariate and multivariate analyses (ps<0.001). Test Scepticism correlated negatively with testing intentions in multivariate analyses (p<0.05). Open-ended questions assessing testing motivations generally replicated themes of the quantitative survey. In addition to learning about health risks, young people may be motivated to seek genetic testing for reasons, such as gaining knowledge about new genetic technologies more broadly.

Application of Electron Backscatter Diffraction to evaluate the ASR risk of concrete aggregates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rößler, C., E-mail: christiane.roessler@uni-weimar.de; Möser, B.; Giebson, C.

Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) is a frequent cause of reduced concrete durability. Eliminating the application of alkali reactive aggregates would reduce the quantity of ASR concrete deterioration in the field. This study introduces an Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) technique to distinguish the ASR risk of slow-late reacting aggregates by measuring microstructural properties of quartz. Quantifying the amount of quartz grain boundaries and the associated misorientation of grains can thereby be used to differentiate microstructures bearing an ASR risk. It is also shown that dissolution of quartz in high pH environments occurs along quartz grain and subgrain boundaries. Results of EBSD analysismore » are compared with ASR performance testing on concrete prisms and optical light microscopy characterization of quartz microstructure. EBSD opens new possibilities to quantitatively characterize microstructure of quartz in concrete aggregates with respect to ASR. This leads to a better understanding on the actual cause of ASR.« less

Chemical Speciation and Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Metal Pollution Hazards in Two Army Shooting Range Backstop Soils.

PubMed

Islam, Mohammad Nazrul; Nguyen, Xuan Phuc; Jung, Ho-Young; Park, Jeong-Hun

2016-02-01

The chemical speciation and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in two shooting range backstop soils in Korea were studied. Both soils were highly contaminated with Cd, Cu, Pb, and Sb. The chemical speciation of heavy metals reflected the present status of contamination, which could help in promoting management practices. We-rye soil had a higher proportion of exchangeable and carbonate bound metals and water-extractable Cd and Sb than the Cho-do soil. Bioavailable Pb represented 42 % of the total Pb content in both soils. A significant amount of Sb was found in the two most bioavailable fractions, amounting to ~32 % in the soil samples, in good agreement with the batch leaching test using water. Based on the values of ecological risk indices, both soils showed extremely high potential risk and may represent serious environmental problems.

Written violence policies and risk of physical assault against Minnesota educators.

PubMed

Feda, Denise M; Gerberich, Susan G; Ryan, Andrew D; Nachreiner, Nancy M; McGovern, Patricia M

2010-12-01

Few research studies on school violence policies use quantitative methods to evaluate the impact of policies on workplace violence. This study analyzed nine different written violence policies and their impact on work-related physical assault in educational settings. Data were from the Minnesota Educators' Study. This large, nested case control study included cases (n=372) who reported physical assaults within the last year, and controls (n=1116) who did not. Multivariate logistic regression analyses, using directed acyclic graphs, estimated risk of assault. Results of the adjusted multivariate model suggested decreased risks of physical assault were associated with the presence of policies regarding how to report sexual harassment, verbal abuse, and threat (OR 0.53; 95 per cent CI: 0.30-0.95); assurance of confidential reporting of events (OR 0.67; 95 per cent CI: 0.44-1.04); and zero tolerance for violence (OR 0.70; 95 per cent CI: 0.47-1.04).

Associations between psychosocial work factors and provider mental well-being in emergency departments: A systematic review.

PubMed

Schneider, Anna; Weigl, Matthias

2018-01-01

Emergency departments (ED) are complex and dynamic work environments with various psychosocial work stressors that increase risks for providers' well-being. Yet, no systematic review is available which synthesizes the current research base as well as quantitatively aggregates data on associations between ED work factors and provider well-being outcomes. We aimed at synthesizing the current research base on quantitative associations between psychosocial work factors (classified into patient-/ task-related, organizational, and social factors) and mental well-being of ED providers (classified into positive well-being outcomes, affective symptoms and negative psychological functioning, cognitive-behavioural outcomes, and psychosomatic health complaints). A systematic literature search in eight databases was conducted in December 2017. Original studies were extracted following a stepwise procedure and predefined inclusion criteria. A standardized assessment of methodological quality and risk of bias was conducted for each study with the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies from the Effective Public Health Practice Project. In addition to a systematic compilation of included studies, frequency and strength of quantitative associations were synthesized by means of harvest plots. Subgroup analyses for ED physicians and nurses were conducted. N = 1956 records were retrieved. After removal of duplicates, 1473 records were screened for titles and abstracts. 199 studies were eligible for full-text review. Finally, 39 original studies were included whereof 37 reported cross-sectional surveys. Concerning the methodological quality of included studies, the majority was evaluated as weak to moderate with considerable risk of bias. Most frequently surveyed provider outcomes were affective symptoms (e.g., burnout) and positive well-being outcomes (e.g., job satisfaction). 367 univariate associations and 370 multivariate associations were extracted with the majority being weak to moderate. Strong associations were mostly reported for social and organizational work factors. To the best of our knowledge, this review is the first to provide a quantitative summary of the research base on associations of psychosocial ED work factors and provider well-being. Conclusive results reveal that peer support, well-designed organizational structures, and employee reward systems balance the negative impact of adverse work factors on ED providers' well-being. This review identifies avenues for future research in this field including methodological advances by using quasi-experimental and prospective designs, representative samples, and adequate confounder control. Protocol registration number: PROSPERO 2016 CRD42016037220.

Interrelation of structure and operational states in cascading failure of overloading lines in power grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Fei; Bompard, Ettore; Huang, Tao; Jiang, Lin; Lu, Shaofeng; Zhu, Huaiying

2017-09-01

As the modern power system is expected to develop to a more intelligent and efficient version, i.e. the smart grid, or to be the central backbone of energy internet for free energy interactions, security concerns related to cascading failures have been raised with consideration of catastrophic results. The researches of topological analysis based on complex networks have made great contributions in revealing structural vulnerabilities of power grids including cascading failure analysis. However, existing literature with inappropriate assumptions in modeling still cannot distinguish the effects between the structure and operational state to give meaningful guidance for system operation. This paper is to reveal the interrelation between network structure and operational states in cascading failure and give quantitative evaluation by integrating both perspectives. For structure analysis, cascading paths will be identified by extended betweenness and quantitatively described by cascading drop and cascading gradient. Furthermore, the operational state for cascading paths will be described by loading level. Then, the risk of cascading failure along a specific cascading path can be quantitatively evaluated considering these two factors. The maximum cascading gradient of all possible cascading paths can be used as an overall metric to evaluate the entire power grid for its features related to cascading failure. The proposed method is tested and verified on IEEE30-bus system and IEEE118-bus system, simulation evidences presented in this paper suggests that the proposed model can identify the structural causes for cascading failure and is promising to give meaningful guidance for the protection of system operation in the future.

A whole-cell bioreporter assay for quantitative genotoxicity evaluation of environmental samples.

PubMed

Jiang, Bo; Li, Guanghe; Xing, Yi; Zhang, Dayi; Jia, Jianli; Cui, Zhisong; Luan, Xiao; Tang, Hui

2017-10-01

Whole-cell bioreporters have emerged as promising tools for genotoxicity evaluation, due to their rapidity, cost-effectiveness, sensitivity and selectivity. In this study, a method for detecting genotoxicity in environmental samples was developed using the bioluminescent whole-cell bioreporter Escherichia coli recA::luxCDABE. To further test its performance in a real world scenario, the E. coli bioreporter was applied in two cases: i) soil samples collected from chromium(VI) contaminated sites; ii) crude oil contaminated seawater collected after the Jiaozhou Bay oil spill which occurred in 2013. The chromium(VI) contaminated soils were pretreated by water extraction, and directly exposed to the bioreporter in two phases: aqueous soil extraction (water phase) and soil supernatant (solid phase). The results indicated that both extractable and soil particle fixed chromium(VI) were bioavailable to the bioreporter, and the solid-phase contact bioreporter assay provided a more precise evaluation of soil genotoxicity. For crude oil contaminated seawater, the response of the bioreporter clearly illustrated the spatial and time change in genotoxicity surrounding the spill site, suggesting that the crude oil degradation process decreased the genotoxic risk to ecosystem. In addition, the performance of the bioreporter was simulated by a modified cross-regulation gene expression model, which quantitatively described the DNA damage response of the E. coli bioreporter. Accordingly, the bioluminescent response of the bioreporter was calculated as the mitomycin C equivalent, enabling quantitative comparison of genotoxicities between different environmental samples. This bioreporter assay provides a rapid and sensitive screening tool for direct genotoxicity assessment of environmental samples. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Musculoskeletal Load in and Highly Repetitive Actions of Animal Facility Washroom Employees

PubMed Central

Kiermayer, Claudia; Hoehne-Hückstädt, Ulrike M; Brielmeier, Markus; Brütting, Mark; Ellegast, Rolf; Schmidt, Jörg

2011-01-01

Regular work tasks in the washroom of laboratory animal facilities include cleaning of cages and bottles and handling of chow and bedding. These operations largely are carried out by hand. We quantitatively determined the musculoskeletal load on the trunk and upper limbs of washroom employees in an animal facility with a holding capacity of 35,000 rodent cages by using a computer-assisted, quantitative, recording, and long-term analysis (CUELA) system, which volunteers wore during routine work. Parallel video recording allowed exact assignment of each movement of body and limbs to the data recorded by the sensors. For the most part, trunk movements were unassociated with risk of injury. Evaluation of upper limb movements by CUELA indicated elevated burden on shoulder, elbows, and wrists due to the high repetitiveness and range of movements and postures. However, after additional work factors like low effort and the presence of micropauses were taken into account, workers were not at risk for the development of musculoskeletal disorders of the upper limbs. Handling bottles, chow, and bedding and maneuvering trolleys that entailed greater musculoskeletal loads did not yield evidence of overstraining, because the actions typically were executed alternately and were of short duration during daily shifts. The results represent quantitative information on the musculoskeletal load of regular washroom operations in a laboratory animal facility. These data provide the basis for ergonomic redesign of operations and implementation of automation for highly repetitive movements. PMID:22330713

Quantitative assessment model for gastric cancer screening

PubMed Central

Chen, Kun; Yu, Wei-Ping; Song, Liang; Zhu, Yi-Min

2005-01-01

AIM: To set up a mathematic model for gastric cancer screening and to evaluate its function in mass screening for gastric cancer. METHODS: A case control study was carried on in 66 patients and 198 normal people, then the risk and protective factors of gastric cancer were determined, including heavy manual work, foods such as small yellow-fin tuna, dried small shrimps, squills, crabs, mothers suffering from gastric diseases, spouse alive, use of refrigerators and hot food, etc. According to some principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a quantitative assessment model was established as follows: first, we selected some factors significant in statistics, and calculated weight coefficient for each one by two different methods; second, population space was divided into gastric cancer fuzzy subset and non gastric cancer fuzzy subset, then a mathematic model for each subset was established, we got a mathematic expression of attribute degree (AD). RESULTS: Based on the data of 63 patients and 693 normal people, AD of each subject was calculated. Considering the sensitivity and specificity, the thresholds of AD values calculated were configured with 0.20 and 0.17, respectively. According to these thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative model were about 69% and 63%. Moreover, statistical test showed that the identification outcomes of these two different calculation methods were identical (P>0.05). CONCLUSION: The validity of this method is satisfactory. It is convenient, feasible, economic and can be used to determine individual and population risks of gastric cancer. PMID:15655813