Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation.

PubMed

Keil, Alexander P; Richardson, David B

2017-12-06

Complex statistical models fitted to data from studies of atomic bomb survivors are used to estimate the human health effects of ionizing radiation exposures. We describe and illustrate an approach to estimate population risks from ionizing radiation exposure that relaxes many assumptions about radiation-related mortality. The approach draws on developments in methods for causal inference. The results offer a different way to quantify radiation's effects and show that conventional estimates of the population burden of excess cancer at high radiation doses are driven strongly by projecting outside the range of current data. Summary results obtained using the proposed approach are similar in magnitude to those obtained using conventional methods, although estimates of radiation-related excess cancers differ for many age, sex, and dose groups. At low doses relevant to typical exposures, the strength of evidence in data is surprisingly weak. Statements regarding human health effects at low doses rely strongly on the use of modeling assumptions. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.

Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2003-01-01

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure to ionizing space radiation is challenging in part because of uncertainties of low-dose distribution amongst cells, of unknown potentially synergistic effects of microgravity upon cellular protein-expression, and of processing dose-related damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant transformation, degrade the confidence of cancer risk-estimates. The NASA- specific responsibility to estimate the risks of radiogenic cancer in a limited number of astronauts is not amenable to epidemiologic study, thereby increasing this challenge. Developing adequately sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed close after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing malignant transformation by the cells absorbing that dose could be useful for resolving these challenges. Use of a multiparametric cellular biodosimeter is suggested using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are obtained and analyzed for expression-profiles correlated with established end points and molecular markers predictive for cancer-risk. Analytical techniques of genomics and proteomics may be used to establish dose-dependency of multiple gene- and protein- expressions resulting from radiation-induced cellular damage. Furthermore, gene- and protein-expression from cells in microgravity are known to be altered relative to cells grown on the ground at 1g. Therefore, hypotheses are proposed that 1) macromolecular expression caused by radiation-induced damage in cells in microgravity may be different than on the ground, and 2) different patterns of macromolecular expression in microgravity may alter human radiogenic cancer risk relative to radiation exposure on Earth. A new paradigm is accordingly suggested as a national database wherein genomic and

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John

2013-10-15

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included withinmore » the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably

Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty.

PubMed

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

2013-10-01

Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis. Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients. For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4-146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10(-5) to 837.4 × 10(-5) depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2-541.0) × 10(-5). The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10(-5) and 110.3 × 10(-5) for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003-68.5) × 10(-5). The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ site in respect to treatment volume and patient

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

2002-01-01

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2010-04-01

Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

2014-05-01

The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk

PubMed Central

Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2015-01-01

Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy. PMID:26730293

Space radiation and cardiovascular disease risk.

PubMed

Boerma, Marjan; Nelson, Gregory A; Sridharan, Vijayalakshmi; Mao, Xiao-Wen; Koturbash, Igor; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2015-12-26

Future long-distance space missions will be associated with significant exposures to ionizing radiation, and the health risks of these radiation exposures during manned missions need to be assessed. Recent Earth-based epidemiological studies in survivors of atomic bombs and after occupational and medical low dose radiation exposures have indicated that the cardiovascular system may be more sensitive to ionizing radiation than was previously thought. This has raised the concern of a cardiovascular disease risk from exposure to space radiation during long-distance space travel. Ground-based studies with animal and cell culture models play an important role in estimating health risks from space radiation exposure. Charged particle space radiation has dense ionization characteristics and may induce unique biological responses, appropriate simulation of the space radiation environment and careful consideration of the choice of the experimental model are critical. Recent studies have addressed cardiovascular effects of space radiation using such models and provided first results that aid in estimating cardiovascular disease risk, and several other studies are ongoing. Moreover, astronauts could potentially be administered pharmacological countermeasures against adverse effects of space radiation, and research is focused on the development of such compounds. Because the cardiovascular response to space radiation has not yet been clearly defined, the identification of potential pharmacological countermeasures against cardiovascular effects is still in its infancy.

Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

2013-07-01

The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

Estimating Radiogenic Cancer Risks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures developed in light of information that has become available, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment.

PubMed

Sinclair, W K

1994-01-01

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

Radiation protection issues in galactic cosmic ray risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinclair, W. K.

1994-01-01

Radiation protection involves the limitation of exposure to below threshold doses for direct (or deterministic) effects and a knowledge of the risk of stochastic effects after low doses. The principal stochastic risk associated with low dose rate galactic cosmic rays is the increased risk of cancer. Estimates of this risk depend on two factors (a) estimates of cancer risk for low-LET radiation and (b) values of the appropriate radiation weighting factors, WR, for the high-LET radiations of galactic cosmic rays. Both factors are subject to considerable uncertainty. The low-LET cancer risk derived from the late effects of the atomic bombs is vulnerable to a number of uncertainties including especially that from projection in time, and from extrapolation from high to low dose rate. Nevertheless, recent low dose studies of workers and others tend to confirm these estimates. WR, relies on biological effects studied mainly in non-human systems. Additional laboratory studies could reduce the uncertainties in WR and thus produce a more confident estimate of the overall risk of galactic cosmic rays.

Probability Distribution of Dose and Dose-Rate Effectiveness Factor for use in Estimating Risks of Solid Cancers From Exposure to Low-Let Radiation.

PubMed

Kocher, David C; Apostoaei, A Iulian; Hoffman, F Owen; Trabalka, John R

2018-06-01

This paper presents an analysis to develop a subjective state-of-knowledge probability distribution of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for use in estimating risks of solid cancers from exposure to low linear energy transfer radiation (photons or electrons) whenever linear dose responses from acute and chronic exposure are assumed. A dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor represents an assumption that the risk of a solid cancer per Gy at low acute doses or low dose rates of low linear energy transfer radiation, RL, differs from the risk per Gy at higher acute doses, RH; RL is estimated as RH divided by a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor, where RH is estimated from analyses of dose responses in Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. A probability distribution to represent uncertainty in a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for solid cancers was developed from analyses of epidemiologic data on risks of incidence or mortality from all solid cancers as a group or all cancers excluding leukemias, including (1) analyses of possible nonlinearities in dose responses in atomic-bomb survivors, which give estimates of a low-dose effectiveness factor, and (2) comparisons of risks in radiation workers or members of the public from chronic exposure to low linear energy transfer radiation at low dose rates with risks in atomic-bomb survivors, which give estimates of a dose-rate effectiveness factor. Probability distributions of uncertain low-dose effectiveness factors and dose-rate effectiveness factors for solid cancer incidence and mortality were combined using assumptions about the relative weight that should be assigned to each estimate to represent its relevance to estimation of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor. The probability distribution of a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor for solid cancers developed in this study has a median (50th percentile) and 90% subjective confidence interval of 1.3 (0.47, 3.6). The harmonic mean is 1.1, which

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1979-01-01

The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controllingmore » procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.« less

NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

2015-01-01

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

Radiation Exposure and Attributable Cancer Risk in Patients With Esophageal Atresia.

PubMed

Yousef, Yasmine; Baird, Robert

2018-02-01

Cases of esophageal carcinoma have been documented in survivors of esophageal atresia (EA). Children with EA undergo considerable amounts of diagnostic imaging and consequent radiation exposure potentially increasing their lifetime cancer mortality risk. This study evaluates the radiological procedures performed on patients with EA and estimates their cumulative radiation exposure and attributable lifetime cancer mortality risk. Medical records of patients with EA managed at a tertiary care center were reviewed for demographics, EA subtype, and number and type of radiological investigations. Existing normative data were used to estimate the cumulative radiation exposure and lifetime cancer risk per patient. The present study included 53 patients with a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. The overall median and maximum estimated effective radiation dose in the neonatal period was 5521.4 μSv/patient and 66638.6 μSv/patient, respectively. This correlates to a median and maximum estimated cumulative lifetime cancer mortality risk of 1:1530 and 1:130, respectively. Hence, radiation exposure in the neonatal period increased the cumulative cancer mortality risk a median of 130-fold and a maximum of 1575-fold in EA survivors. Children with EA are exposed to significant amounts of radiation and an increased estimated cumulative cancer mortality risk. Efforts should be made to eliminate superfluous imaging.

Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

PubMed

Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

2016-08-01

The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers.

Direct estimates of low-level radiation risks of lung cancer at two NRC-compliant nuclear installations: why are the new risk estimates 20 to 200 times the old official estimates?

PubMed

Bross, I D; Driscoll, D L

1981-01-01

An official report on the health hazards to nuclear submarine workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS), who were exposed to low-level ionizing radiation, was based on a casual inspection of the data and not on statistical analyses of the dosage-response relationships. When these analyses are done, serious hazards from lung cancer and other causes of death are shown. As a result of the recent studies on nuclear workers, the new risk estimates have been found to be much higher than the official estimates currently used in setting NRC permissible levels. The official BEIR estimates are about one lung cancer death per year per million persons per rem[s]. The PNS data show 189 lung cancer deaths per year per million persons per rem.

Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-02-01

Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

Radiation risk estimation and its application to human beings in space.

PubMed

Sinclair, W K

1984-01-01

The number of human beings likely to spend time in space will increase as time goes on. While exposures vary according to missions, orbits, shielding, etc., an average space radiation fluence (ignoring solar flares, radiation belts and anomalous regions in space) in locations close to earth is about 10 rad/year with a quality factor of about 5.5. The potential effects of exposure to these fluences include both non-stochastic effects and stochastic effects (cancer and genetic damage). Non-stochastic effects, damage to the lens of the eye, bone marrow or gonads, can be avoided by keeping radiation limits below threshold values. Stochastic effects imply risk at all levels. The magnitude of these risks has been discussed in a number of reports by the UNSCEAR Committee and the BEIR Committee in the USA during 1970-1980. The uncertainties associated with these risks and information which has become available since the last BEIR report is discussed. In considering reasonable limits for exposure in space, acceptable levels for stochastic risks must be based on appropriate comparisons. In view of the limited term of duty of most space workers, a lifetime limit may be appropriate. This lifetime limit might be comparable in terms of risks with limits for radiation workers on the ground but received at a higher annual rate for a shorter time. These and other approaches are expected to be considered by an NCRP Committee currently examining the problem of space radiation hazards.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient’s clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller patients

Estimating the lifetime risk of cancer associated with multiple CT scans.

PubMed

Ivanov, V K; Kashcheev, V V; Chekin, S Yu; Menyaylo, A N; Pryakhin, E A; Tsyb, A F; Mettler, F A

2014-12-01

Multiple CT scans are often done on the same patient resulting in an increased risk of cancer. Prior publications have estimated risks on a population basis and often using an effective dose. Simply adding up the risks from single scans does not correctly account for the survival function. A methodology for estimating personal radiation risks attributed to multiple CT imaging using organ doses is presented in this article. The estimated magnitude of the attributable risk fraction for the possible development of radiation-induced cancer indicates the necessity for strong clinical justification when ordering multiple CT scans.

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

PubMed

Land, Charles E

2009-11-01

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Estimated Radiation on Mars, Hits per Cell Nucleus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This global map of Mars shows estimates for amounts of high-energy-particle cosmic radiation reaching the surface, a serious health concern for any future human exploration of the planet.

The estimates are based on cosmic-radiation measurements made on the way to Mars by the Mars radiation environment experiment, an instrument on NASA's 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft, plus information about Mars' surface elevations from the laser altimeter instrument on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor. The areas of Mars expected to have least radiation are where elevation is lowest, because those areas have more atmosphere above them to block out some of the radiation. Earth's thick atmosphere shields us from most cosmic radiation, but Mars has a much thinner atmosphere than Earth does.

Colors in the map refer to the estimated average number of times per year each cell nucleus in a human there would be hit by a high-energy cosmic ray particle. The range is generally from two hits (color-coded green), a moderate risk level, to eight hits (coded red), a high risk level.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. manages the 2001 Mars Odyssey and Mars Global Surveyor missions for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington D.C. The Mars radiation environment experiment was developed by NASA's Johnson Space Center. Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, is the prime contractor for Odyssey, and developed and built the orbiter. Mission operations are conducted jointly from Lockheed Martin and from JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.

2011-01-01

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Usefulness of cancer-free survival in estimating the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dal Nim; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo

2018-05-11

Risk projection models estimating the lifetime cancer risk from radiation exposure are generally based on exposure dose, age at exposure, attained age, gender and study-population-specific factors such as baseline cancer risks and survival rates. Because such models have mostly been based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, the baseline risks and survival rates in the target population should be considered when applying the cancer risk. The survival function used in the risk projection models that are commonly used in the radiological protection field to estimate the cancer risk from medical or occupational exposure is based on all-cause mortality. Thus, it may not be accurate for estimating the lifetime risk of high-incidence but not life-threatening cancer with a long-term survival rate. Herein, we present the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) estimates of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, thyroid cancer, and leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia in South Korea for lifetime exposure to 1 mGy per year using the cancer-free survival function, as recently applied in the Fukushima health risk assessment by the World Health Organization. Compared with the estimates of LARs using an overall survival function solely based on all-cause mortality, the LARs of all solid cancers except thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer evaluated using the cancer-free survival function, decreased by approximately 13% and 1% for men and 9% and 5% for women, respectively. The LAR of leukemia except chronic lymphocytic leukemia barely changed for either gender owing to the small absolute difference between its incidence and mortality. Given that many cancers have a high curative rate and low mortality rate, using a survival function solely based on all-cause mortality may cause an overestimation of the lifetime risk of cancer incidence. The lifetime fractional risk was robust against the choice of survival function.

Radiation risk estimation: Modelling approaches for “targeted” and “non-targeted” effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarini, Francesca; Alloni, Daniele; Facoetti, Angelica; Mairani, Andrea; Nano, Rosanna; Ottolenghi, Andrea

The estimation of the risks from low doses of ionizing radiation - including heavy ions - is still a debated question. In particular, the action of heavy ions on biological targets needs further investigation. In this framework, we present a mechanistic model and a Monte Carlo simulation code for the induction of different types of chromosome aberrations. The model, previously validated for gamma rays and light ions, has recently started to be extended to heavy ions such as Iron and Carbon, which are of interest both for space radiation protection and for hadrontherapy. Preliminary results were found to be in agreement with experimental dose-response curves for aberration yields observed following heavy-ion irradiation of human lymphocytes treated with the Premature Chromosome Condensation technique. During the last 10 years, the "Linear No Threshold" hypothesis has been challenged by a large number of observations on the so-called "non-targeted effects" including bystander effect, which consists of the induction of cytogenetic damage in cells not directly traversed by radiation, most likely as a response to molecular messengers released by directly irradiated cells. Although it is now clear that cellular communication plays a fundamental role, our knowledge on the mechanisms underlying bystander effects is still poor, and would largely benefit from further investigations including theoretical models and simulation codes. In the present paper we will review different modelling approaches, including one that is being developed at the University of Pavia, focusing on the assumptions adopted by the various authors and on their implications in terms of low-dose radiation risk, as well as on the identification of "critical" parameters that can modulate the model outcomes.

Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

2015-01-01

Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul

2011-01-15

Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GEmore » Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2006-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; George, K.; Hu, X.; Kim, M. H.; Nikjoo, H.; Ponomarev, A.; Ren, L.; Shavers, M. R.; Wu, H.

2005-01-01

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period

Pre-Bombing Population Density in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Its Measurement and Impact on Radiation Risk Estimates in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors.

PubMed

French, Benjamin; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Cologne, John; Cullings, Harry M; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Preston, Dale L

2018-03-29

In the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors, differences in urbanicity between high-dose and low-dose survivors could confound the association between radiation dose and adverse outcomes. We obtained data on the pre-bombing population distribution in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and quantified the impact of adjustment for population density on radiation risk estimates for mortality (1950-2003) and incident solid cancer (1958-2009). Population density ranged from 4,671-14,378 and 5,748-19,149 people/km2 in urban regions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. Radiation risk estimates for solid cancer mortality were attenuated by 5.1%, but those for all-cause mortality and incident solid cancer were unchanged. There was no overall association between population density and adverse outcomes, but there was evidence that the association between density and mortality differed by age at exposure. Among survivors 10-14 years old in 1945, there was a positive association between population density and risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.053 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.027, 1.079) and solid cancer mortality (relative risk, 1.069 per 5,000 people/km2 increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.025, 1.115). Our results suggest that radiation risk estimates from the Life Span Study are not sensitive to unmeasured confounding by urban-rural differences.

NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.; Simonsen, L. C.

2017-01-01

Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenkate, Thomas D.

1998-01-01

Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

[Use of ionizing radiation sources in metallurgy: risk assessment].

PubMed

Giugni, U

2012-01-01

Use of ionizing radiation sources in the metallurgical industry: risk assessment. Radioactive sources and fixed or mobile X-ray equipment are used for both process and quality control. The use of ionizing radiation sources requires careful risk assessment. The text lists the characteristics of the sources and the legal requirements, and contains a description of the documentation required and the methods used for risk assessment. It describes how to estimate the doses to operators and the relevant classification criteria used for the purpose of radiation protection. Training programs must be organized in close collaboration between the radiation protection expert and the occupational physician.

A-BOMB SURVIVOR SITE-SPECIFIC RADIOGENIC CANCER RISKS ESTIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

A draft manuscript is being prepared that describes ways to improve estimates of risk from radiation that have been derived from A-bomb survivors. The work has been published in the journal Radiation Research volume 169, pages 87-98.

Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

1995-01-01

Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

Cancer risks after radiation exposure in middle age.

PubMed

Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K; Brenner, David J

2010-11-03

become increasingly important as the age at exposure increases. Radiation-induced cancer risks after exposure in middle age may be up to twice as high as previously estimated, which could have implications for occupational exposure and radiological imaging.

Radiation Risk Assessment of the Individual Astronaut: A Complement to Radiation Interests at the NIH

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Predicting human risks following exposure to space radiation is uncertain in part because of unpredictable distribution of high-LET and low-dose-derived damage amongst cells in tissues, unknown synergistic effects of microgravity upon gene- and protein-expression, and inadequately modeled processing of radiation-induced damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant cancers. Furthermore, estimation of risks of radiogenic outcome within small numbers of astronauts is not possible using classic epidemiologic study. It therefore seems useful to develop strategies of risk-assessment based upon large datasets acquired from correlated biological models useful for resolving radiogenic risk-assessment for irradiated individuals. In this regard, it is suggested that sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the biomolecular risk of malignant transformation be developed in order to resolve these NASA-specific challenges. Multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be developed using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are analyzed for markers predictive for acute response as well as cancer-risk. A new paradigm is accordingly addressed wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation in individual astronauts. This evaluation of the individual for assessment of radiogenic outcomes connects to NIH program in that such a paradigm also supports assignment of a given patient to a specific therapy, the diagnosis of response of that patient to therapy, and the prediction of risks accumulated by that patient during therapy - such as risks incurred by scatter and neutrons produced during high-energy Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

Comparison of risk estimates using life-table methods.

PubMed

Sullivan, R E; Weng, P S

1987-08-01

Risk estimates promulgated by various radiation protection authorities in recent years have become increasingly more complex. Early "integral" estimates in the form of health effects per 0.01 person-Gy (per person-rad) or per 10(4) person-Gy (per 10(6) person-rad) have tended to be replaced by "differential" estimates which are age- and sex-dependent and specify both minimum induction (latency) and duration of risk expression (plateau) periods. These latter types of risk estimate must be used in conjunction with a life table in order to reduce them to integral form. In this paper, the life table has been used to effect a comparison of the organ and tissue risk estimates derived in several recent reports. In addition, a brief review of life-table methodology is presented and some features of the models used in deriving differential coefficients are discussed. While the great number of permutations possible with dose-response models, detailed risk estimates and proposed projection models precludes any unique result, the reduced integral coefficients are required to conform to the linear, absolute-risk model recommended for use with the integral risk estimates reviewed.

Risk of Skin Cancer from Space Radiation. Chapter 11

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Wu, Hong-Lu

2003-01-01

We review the methods for estimating the probability of increased incidence of skin cancers from space radiation exposure, and describe some of the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects of combined ionizing and UV exposure. The steep dose gradients from trapped electrons, protons, and heavy ions radiation during EVA and limitations in EVA dosimetry are important factors for projecting skin cancer risk of astronauts. We estimate that the probability of increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold for individual astronauts and that the risk of skin cancer could exceed 1 % for future lunar base operations for astronauts with light skin color and hair. Limitations in physical dosimetry in estimating the distribution of dose at the skin suggest that new biodosimetry methods be developed for responding to accidental overexposure of the skin during future space missions.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Badhwar, G. D.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2001-01-01

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

Use of risk projection models to estimate mortality and incidence from radiation-induced breast cancer in screening programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M.; Ferrer, S.; Villaescusa, J. I.; Verdú, G.; Salas, M. D.; Cuevas, M. D.

2005-02-01

The authors report on a method to calculate radiological risks, applicable to breast screening programs and other controlled medical exposures to ionizing radiation. In particular, it has been applied to make a risk assessment in the Valencian Breast Cancer Early Detection Program (VBCEDP) in Spain. This method is based on a parametric approach, through Markov processes, of hazard functions for radio-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality, with mean glandular breast dose, attained age and age-at-exposure as covariates. Excess relative risk functions of breast cancer mortality have been obtained from two different case-control studies exposed to ionizing radiation, with different follow-up time: the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (1950-1987) and the Life Span Study (1950-1985 and 1950-1990), whereas relative risk functions for incidence have been obtained from the Life Span Study (1958-1993), the Massachusetts tuberculosis cohorts (1926-1985 and 1970-1985), the New York post-partum mastitis patients (1930-1981) and the Swedish benign breast disease cohort (1958-1987). Relative risks from these cohorts have been transported to the target population undergoing screening in the Valencian Community, a region in Spain with about four and a half million inhabitants. The SCREENRISK software has been developed to estimate radiological detriments in breast screening. Some hypotheses corresponding to different screening conditions have been considered in order to estimate the total risk associated with a woman who takes part in all screening rounds. In the case of the VBCEDP, the total radio-induced risk probability for fatal breast cancer is in a range between [5 × 10-6, 6 × 10-4] versus the natural rate of dying from breast cancer in the Valencian Community which is 9.2 × 10-3. The results show that these indicators could be included in quality control tests and could be adequate for making comparisons between several screening programs.

Space radiation risk limits and Earth-Moon-Mars environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Kozarev, K.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.

2010-12-01

We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

How safe is safe enough? Radiation risk for a human mission to Mars.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Kim, Myung-Hee Y; Chappell, Lori J; Huff, Janice L

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR)--made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate.

How Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Chappell, Lori J.; Huff, Janice L.

2013-01-01

Astronauts on a mission to Mars would be exposed for up to 3 years to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — made up of high-energy protons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) nuclei. GCR exposure rate increases about three times as spacecraft venture out of Earth orbit into deep space where protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body are lost. NASA's radiation standard limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) at the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk estimate. Fatal cancer risk has been considered the dominant risk for GCR, however recent epidemiological analysis of radiation risks for circulatory diseases allow for predictions of REID for circulatory diseases to be included with cancer risk predictions for space missions. Using NASA's models of risks and uncertainties, we predicted that central estimates for radiation induced mortality and morbidity could exceed 5% and 10% with upper 95% CI near 10% and 20%, respectively for a Mars mission. Additional risks to the central nervous system (CNS) and qualitative differences in the biological effects of GCR compared to terrestrial radiation may significantly increase these estimates, and will require new knowledge to evaluate. PMID:24146746

Estimation of risk based on multiple events in radiation carcinogenesis of rat skin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, F. J.; Jin, Y.; Garte, S. J.; Hosselet, S.

1994-10-01

In the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, cells progress to cancer through a series of discrete, irreversible, heritable genetic alterations or mutations. However data on radiation-induced cancer incidence in rat skin suggests that some part of an intermediate repairable alteration may occur. Data are presented on cancer induction in rat skin exposed to the following radiations: 1. an electron beam (LET = 0.34 keV/um, 2. a neon ion beam (LET = 25 keV/um and 3. an argon ion beam (LET = 125 keV/um. The latter 2 beams were generated by the Bevalac at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA. About 6.0 cm2 of skin was irradiated per rat. The rats were observed every 6 weeks for at least 78 weeks and tumors were scored at first occurrence. Several histological types of cancer, including squamous and basal cell carcinomas, were induced. The cancer yield versus radiation dose was fitted by the quadratic equation (Y (D) = CLD + BD2), and the parameters C and B were estimated for each type of radiation. Analysis of the DNA from the electron-induced carcinomas indicated that K-ras and/or c-myc oncogenes were activated in all tumors tested, although only a small proportion of neon-induced tumors showed similar activation. In situ hybridization indicated that the cancers contain subpopulations of cells with differing amounts of c-myc and H-ras amplification. The results are consistent with the idea that ionizing radiation produces carcinogenically relevant lesions via 2 repairable events at low LET and via a non-repairable, linked event pathway at high LET; either pathway may advance the cell by 1 stage in the multistage model. The model, if validated, permits the direct calculation of cancer risk in rat skin in a way that can be subjected to experimental testing.

Ionizing Radiation Environments and Exposure Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M. H. Y.

2015-12-01

Space radiation environments for historically large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are simulated to characterize exposures to radio-sensitive organs for missions to low-Earth orbit (LEO), moon, near-Earth asteroid, and Mars. Primary and secondary particles for SPE and GCR are transported through the respective atmospheres of Earth or Mars, space vehicle, and astronaut's body tissues using NASA's HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code. Space radiation protection methods, which are derived largely from ground-based methods recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) or International Commission on Radiological Protections (ICRP), are built on the principles of risk justification, limitation, and ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable). However, because of the large uncertainties in high charge and energy (HZE) particle radiobiology and the small population of space crews, NASA develops distinct methods to implement a space radiation protection program. For the fatal cancer risks, which have been considered the dominant risk for GCR, the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model has been developed from recommendations by NCRP; and undergone external review by the National Research Council (NRC), NCRP, and through peer-review publications. The NSCR model uses GCR environmental models, particle transport codes describing the GCR modification by atomic and nuclear interactions in atmospheric shielding coupled with spacecraft and tissue shielding, and NASA-defined quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates for HZE particles. By implementing the NSCR model, the exposure risks from various heliospheric conditions are assessed for the radiation environments for various-class mission types to understand architectures and strategies of human exploration missions and ultimately to contribute to the optimization of radiation safety and well-being of space crewmembers participating in long-term space missions.

Organ-specific radiation-induced cancer risk estimates due to radiotherapy for benign pigmented villonodular synovitis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Tzedakis, Antonis; Lyraraki, Efrossyni; Damilakis, John

2016-09-01

Pigmented villonodular synovitis (PVNS) is a benign disease affecting synovial membranes of young and middle-aged adults. The aggressive treatment of this disorder often involves external-beam irradiation. This study was motivated by the lack of data relating to the radiation exposure of healthy tissues and radiotherapy-induced cancer risk. Monte Carlo methodology was employed to simulate a patient’s irradiation for PVNS in the knee and hip joints with a 6 MV photon beam. The average radiation dose received by twenty-two out-of-field critical organs of the human body was calculated. These calculations were combined with the appropriate organ-, age- and gender-specific risk coefficients of the BEIR-VII model to estimate the lifetime probability of cancer development. The risk for carcinogenesis to colon, which was partly included in the treatment fields used for hip irradiation, was determined with a non-linear mechanistic model and differential dose-volume histograms obtained by CT-based 3D radiotherapy planning. Risk assessments were compared with the nominal lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values. Knee irradiation to 36 Gy resulted in out-of-field organ doses of 0.2-24.6 mGy. The corresponding range from hip radiotherapy was 1.2-455.1 mGy whereas the organ equivalent dose for the colon was up to 654.9 mGy. The organ-specific cancer risks from knee irradiation for PVNS were found to be inconsequential since they were at least 161.5 times lower than the LIRs irrespective of the patient’s age and gender. The bladder and colon cancer risk from radiotherapy in the hip joint was up to 3.2 and 6.6 times smaller than the LIR, respectively. These cancer risks may slightly elevate the nominal incidence rates and they should not be ignored during the patient’s treatment planning and follow-up. The probabilities for developing any other solid tumor were more than 20 times lower than the LIRs and, therefore, they may be considered as small.

[Medium-term forecast of solar cosmic rays radiation risk during a manned Mars mission].

PubMed

Petrov, V M; Vlasov, A G

2006-01-01

Medium-term forecasting radiation hazard from solar cosmic rays will be vital in a manned Mars mission. Modern methods of space physics lack acceptable reliability in medium-term forecasting the SCR onset and parameters. The proposed estimation of average radiation risk from SCR during the manned Mars mission is made with the use of existing SCR fluence and spectrum models and correlation of solar particle event frequency with predicted Wolf number. Radiation risk is considered an additional death probability from acute radiation reactions (ergonomic component) or acute radial disease in flight. The algorithm for radiation risk calculation is described and resulted risk levels for various periods of the 23-th solar cycle are presented. Applicability of this method to advance forecasting and possible improvements are being investigated. Recommendations to the crew based on risk estimation are exemplified.

ADVISORY ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

EPA Science Inventory

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) published the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in 2006. The Committee analyzed the most recent epidemiology from the important exposed cohorts and factor...

Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2009-01-01

Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

CONSULTATION ON UPDATED METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

EPA Science Inventory

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) expects to publish the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) committee's report (BEIR VII) on risks from ionizing radiation exposures in calendar year 2005. The committee is expected to have analyzed the most recent epidemiology f...

Conceptus radiation dose and risk from chest screen-film radiography.

PubMed

Damilakis, John; Perisinakis, Kostas; Prassopoulos, Panos; Dimovasili, Evangelia; Varveris, Haralambos; Gourtsoyiannis, Nicholas

2003-02-01

The objectives of the present study were to (a) estimate the conceptus radiation dose and risks for pregnant women undergoing posteroanterior and anteroposterior (AP) chest radiographs, (b) study the conceptus dose as a function of chest thickness of the patient undergoing chest radiograph, and (c) investigate the possibility of a conceptus to receive a dose of more than 10 mGy, the level above which specific measurements of conceptus doses may be necessary. Thermoluminescent dosimeters were used for dose measurements in anthropomorphic phantoms simulating pregnancy at the three trimesters of gestation. The effect of chest thickness on conceptus dose and risk was studied by adding slabs of lucite on the anterior and posterior surface of the phantom chest. The conceptus risk for radiation-induced childhood fatal cancer and hereditary effects was calculated based on appropriate risk factors. The average AP chest dimension (d(a)) was estimated for 51 women of childbearing age from chest CT examinations. The value of d(a) was estimated to be 22.3 cm (17.4-27.2 cm). The calculated maximum conceptus dose was 107 x 10(-3) mGy for AP chest radiographs performed during the third trimester of pregnancy with maternal chest thickness of 27.2 cm. This calculation was based on dose data obtained from measurements in the phantoms and d(a) estimated from the patient group. The corresponding average excess of childhood cancer was 10.7 per million patients. The risk for hereditary effects was 1.1 per million births. Radiation dose for a conceptus increases exponentially as chest thickness increases. The conceptus dose at the third trimester is higher than that of the second and first trimesters. The results of the current study suggest that chest radiographs carried out in women at any time during gestation will result in a negligible increase in risk of radiation-induced harmful effects to the unborn child. After a properly performed maternal chest X-ray, there is no need for

Space Radiation Risks for Astronauts on Multiple International Space Station Missions

PubMed Central

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA’s radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members’ radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate. PMID:24759903

Space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station missions.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2014-01-01

Mortality and morbidity risks from space radiation exposure are an important concern for astronauts participating in International Space Station (ISS) missions. NASA's radiation limits set a 3% cancer fatality probability as the upper bound of acceptable risk and considers uncertainties in risk predictions using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) of the assessment. In addition to risk limitation, an important question arises as to the likelihood of a causal association between a crew-members' radiation exposure in the past and a diagnosis of cancer. For the first time, we report on predictions of age and sex specific cancer risks, expected years of life-loss for specific diseases, and probability of causation (PC) at different post-mission times for participants in 1-year or multiple ISS missions. Risk projections with uncertainty estimates are within NASA acceptable radiation standards for mission lengths of 1-year or less for likely crew demographics. However, for solar minimum conditions upper 95% CL exceed 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) by 18 months or 24 months for females and males, respectively. Median PC and upper 95%-confidence intervals are found to exceed 50% for several cancers for participation in two or more ISS missions of 18 months or longer total duration near solar minimum, or for longer ISS missions at other phases of the solar cycle. However, current risk models only consider estimates of quantitative differences between high and low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. We also make predictions of risk and uncertainties that would result from an increase in tumor lethality for highly ionizing radiation reported in animal studies, and the additional risks from circulatory diseases. These additional concerns could further reduce the maximum duration of ISS missions within acceptable risk levels, and will require new knowledge to properly evaluate.

Assessment of impact of urbanisation on background radiation exposure and human health risk estimation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Sanusi, M S M; Ramli, A T; Hassan, W M S W; Lee, M H; Izham, A; Said, M N; Wagiran, H; Heryanshah, A

2017-07-01

Kuala Lumpur has been undergoing rapid urbanisation process, mainly in infrastructure development. The opening of new township and residential in former tin mining areas, particularly in the heavy mineral- or tin-bearing alluvial soil in Kuala Lumpur, is a contentious subject in land-use regulation. Construction practices, i.e. reclamation and dredging in these areas are potential to enhance the radioactivity levels of soil and subsequently, increase the existing background gamma radiation levels. This situation is worsened with the utilisation of tin tailings as construction materials apart from unavoidable soil pollutions due to naturally occurring radioactive materials in construction materials, e.g. granitic aggregate, cement and red clay brick. This study was conducted to assess the urbanisation impacts on background gamma radiation in Kuala Lumpur. The study found that the mean value of measured dose rate was 251±6nGyh -1 (156-392nGyh -1 ) and 4 times higher than the world average value. High radioactivity levels of 238 U (95±12Bqkg -1 ), 232 Th (191±23Bqkg -1 ,) and 40 K (727±130Bqkg -1 ) in soil were identified as the major source of high radiation exposure. Based on statistical ANOVA, t-test, and analyses of cumulative probability distribution, this study has statistically verified the dose enhancements in the background radiation. The effective dose was estimated to be 0.31±0.01mSvy -1 per man. The recommended ICRP reference level (1-20mSvy -1 ) is applicable to the involved existing exposure situation in this study. The estimated effective dose in this study is lower than the ICRP reference level and too low to cause deterministic radiation effects. Nevertheless based on estimations of lifetime radiation exposure risks, this study found that there was small probability for individual in Kuala Lumpur being diagnosed with cancer and dying of cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2007-01-01

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Radiation Risk From Medical Imaging

PubMed Central

Lin, Eugene C.

2010-01-01

This review provides a practical overview of the excess cancer risks related to radiation from medical imaging. Primary care physicians should have a basic understanding of these risks. Because of recent attention to this issue, patients are more likely to express concerns over radiation risk. In addition, physicians can play a role in reducing radiation risk to their patients by considering these risks when making imaging referrals. This review provides a brief overview of the evidence pertaining to low-level radiation and excess cancer risks and addresses the radiation doses and risks from common medical imaging studies. Specific subsets of patients may be at greater risk from radiation exposure, and radiation risk should be considered carefully in these patients. Recent technical innovations have contributed to lowering the radiation dose from computed tomography, and the referring physician should be aware of these innovations in making imaging referrals. PMID:21123642

Evidence Report: Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, Janice; Carnell, Lisa; Blattnig, Steve; Chappell, Lori; Kerry, George; Lumpkins, Sarah; Simonsen, Lisa; Slaba, Tony; Werneth, Charles

2016-01-01

As noted by Durante and Cucinotta (2008), cancer risk caused by exposure to space radiation is now generally considered a main hindrance to interplanetary travel for the following reasons: large uncertainties are associated with the projected cancer risk estimates; no simple and effective countermeasures are available, and significant uncertainties prevent scientists from determining the effectiveness of countermeasures. Optimizing operational parameters such as the length of space missions, crew selection for age and sex, or applying mitigation measures such as radiation shielding or use of biological countermeasures can be used to reduce risk, but these procedures have inherent limitations and are clouded by uncertainties. Space radiation is comprised of high energy protons, neutrons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) nuclei (HZE). The ionization patterns and resulting biological insults of these particles in molecules, cells, and tissues are distinct from typical terrestrial radiation, which is largely X-rays and gamma-rays, and generally characterized as low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are comprised mostly of highly energetic protons with a small component of high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. Prominent HZE nuclei include He, C, O, Ne, Mg, Si, and Fe. GCR ions have median energies near 1 GeV/n, and energies as high as 10 GeV/n make important contributions to the total exposure. Ionizing radiation is a well known carcinogen on Earth (BEIR 2006). The risks of cancer from X-rays and gamma-rays have been established at doses above 50 mSv (5 rem), although there are important uncertainties and on-going scientific debate about cancer risk at lower doses and at low dose rates (<50 mSv/h). The relationship between the early biological effects of HZE nuclei and the probability of cancer in humans is poorly understood, and it is this missing knowledge that leads to significant uncertainties in projecting cancer risks during space

Geosciences help to protect human health: estimation of the adsorbed radiation doses while flight journeys, as important step to radiation risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernov, Anatolii; Shabatura, Olexandr

2016-04-01

Estimation of the adsorbed radiation dose while flight journeys is a complex problem, which should be solved to get correct evaluation of equivalent effective doses and radiation risk assessment. Direct measurements of the adsorbed dose in the aircrafts during regional flights (3-10 hours) has shown that the radiation in the plane may increase 10-15 times (to 2-4 mSv/h) compared to the values on the surface of the Earth (0.2-0.5 mSv/h). Results of instrumental research confirmed by the other investigations. It is a fact that adsorbed doses per year while flight journeys are less than doses from medical tests. However, while flight journeys passengers get the same doses as nuclear power plant staff, people in zones of natural radiation anomalies and so should be evaluated. According to the authors' research, flight journeys are safe enough, when solar activity is normal and if we fly under altitude of 18 km (as usual, while intercontinental flights). Most of people travel by plane not so often, but if flight is lasting in dangerous periods of solar activity (powerful solar winds and magnetic field storms), passengers and flight crew can adsorb great amount of radiation doses. People, who spend more than 500 hours in flight journeys (pilots, business oriented persons', government representatives, etc.) get amount of radiation, which can negatively influence on health and provoke diseases, such as cancer. Authors consider that problem actual and researches are still going on. It is revealed, that radiation can be calculated, using special equations. Great part of radiation depends on very variable outer-space component and less variable solar. Accurate calculations of doses will be possible, when we will take into account all features of radiation distribution (time, season of year and exact time of the day, duration of flight), technical features of aircraft and logistics of flight (altitude, latitude). Results of first attempts of radiation doses modelling confirmed

Summary of retrospective asbestos and welding fume exposure estimates for a nuclear naval shipyard and their correlation with radiation exposure estimates.

PubMed

Zaebst, D D; Seel, E A; Yiin, J H; Nowlin, S J; Chen, P

2009-07-01

In support of a nested case-control study at a U.S. naval shipyard, the results of the reconstruction of historical exposures were summarized, and an analysis was undertaken to determine the impact of historical exposures to potential chemical confounders. The nested case-control study (N = 4388) primarily assessed the relationship between lung cancer and external ionizing radiation. Chemical confounders considered important were asbestos and welding fume (as iron oxide fume), and the chromium and nickel content of welding fume. Exposures to the potential confounders were estimated by an expert panel based on a set of quantitatively defined categories of exposure. Distributions of the estimated exposures and trends in exposures over time were examined for the study population. Scatter plots and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the degree of association between the estimates of exposure to asbestos, welding fume, and ionizing radiation. Correlation coefficients were calculated separately for 0-, 15-, 20-, and 25-year time-lagged cumulative exposures, total radiation dose (which included medical X-ray dose) and occupational radiation dose. Exposed workers' estimated cumulative exposures to asbestos ranged from 0.01 fiber-days/cm(3) to just under 20,000 fiber-days/cm(3), with a median of 29.0 fiber-days/cm(3). Estimated cumulative exposures to welding fume ranged from 0.16 mg-days/m(3) to just over 30,000 mg-days/m(3), with a median of 603 mg-days/m(3). Spearman correlation coefficients between cumulative radiation dose and cumulative asbestos exposures ranged from 0.09 (occupational dose) to 0.47 (total radiation dose), and those between radiation and welding fume from 0.14 to 0.47. The estimates of relative risk for ionizing radiation and lung cancer were unchanged when lowest and highest estimates of asbestos and welding fume were considered. These results suggest a fairly large proportion of study population workers were exposed to

Improvement of Risk Assessment from Space Radiation Exposure for Future Space Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Atwell, Bill; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Nounu, Hatem; Hussein, Hesham; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

Protecting astronauts from space radiation exposure is an important challenge for mission design and operations for future exploration-class and long-duration missions. Crew members are exposed to sporadic solar particle events (SPEs) as well as to the continuous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). If sufficient protection is not provided the radiation risk to crew members from SPEs could be significant. To improve exposure risk estimates and radiation protection from SPEs, detailed variations of radiation shielding properties are required. A model using a modern CAD tool ProE (TM), which is the leading engineering design platform at NASA, has been developed for this purpose. For the calculation of radiation exposure at a specific site, the cosine distribution was implemented to replicate the omnidirectional characteristic of the 4 pi particle flux on a surface. Previously, estimates of doses to the blood forming organs (BFO) from SPEs have been made using an average body-shielding distribution for the bone marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). The development of an 82-point body-shielding distribution at BFOs made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of SPE doses in the major active marrow regions. Using the detailed distribution of bone marrow sites and implementation of cosine distribution of particle flux is shown to provide improved estimates of acute and cancer risks from SPEs.

Estimation of occupational cosmic radiation exposure among airline personnel: Agreement between a job-exposure matrix, aggregate, and individual dose estimates.

PubMed

Talibov, Madar; Salmelin, Raili; Lehtinen-Jacks, Susanna; Auvinen, Anssi

2017-04-01

Job-exposure matrices (JEM) are used for exposure assessment in occupational studies, but they can involve errors. We assessed agreement between the Nordic Occupational Cancer Studies JEM (NOCCA-JEM) and aggregate and individual dose estimates for cosmic radiation exposure among Finnish airline personnel. Cumulative cosmic radiation exposure for 5,022 airline crew members was compared between a JEM and aggregate and individual dose estimates. The NOCCA-JEM underestimated individual doses. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.37, proportion of agreement 64%, kappa 0.46 compared with individual doses. Higher agreement was achieved with aggregate dose estimates, that is annual medians of individual doses and estimates adjusted for heliocentric potentials. The substantial disagreement between NOCCA-JEM and individual dose estimates of cosmic radiation may lead to exposure misclassification and biased risk estimates in epidemiological studies. Using aggregate data may provide improved estimates. Am. J. Ind. Med. 60:386-393, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

PubMed

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

Radiation in the workplace-a review of studies of the risks of occupational exposure to ionising radiation.

PubMed

Wakeford, Richard

2009-06-01

Many individuals are, or have been, exposed to ionising radiation in the course of their work and the epidemiological study of occupationally irradiated groups offers an important opportunity to complement the estimates of risks to health resulting from exposure to radiation that are obtained from other populations, such as the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Moreover, workplace exposure to radiation usually involves irradiation conditions that are of direct relevance to the principal concern of radiological protection: protracted exposure to low level radiation. Further, some workers have been exposed to radioactive material that has been inadvertently taken into the body, and the study of these groups leads to risk estimates derived directly from the experience of those irradiated by these 'internal emitters', intakes of alpha-particle-emitters being of particular interest. Workforces that have been the subject of epidemiological study include medical staff, aircrews, radium dial luminisers, underground hard-rock miners, Chernobyl clean-up workers, nuclear weapons test participants and nuclear industry workers. The first solid epidemiological evidence of the stochastic effects of irradiation came from a study of occupational exposure to medical x-rays that was reported in 1944, which demonstrated a large excess risk of leukaemia among US radiologists; but the general lack of dose records for early medical staff who tended to experience the highest exposures hampers the derivation of risks per unit dose received by medical workers. The instrument dial luminisers who inadvertently ingested large amounts of radium-based paint and underground hard-rock miners who inhaled large quantities of radon and its decay products suffered markedly raised excess risks of, respectively, bone and lung cancers; the miner studies have provided standard risk estimates for radon-induced lung cancer. The large numbers of nuclear industry

Risk of solid cancer in low dose-rate radiation epidemiological studies and the dose-rate effectiveness factor.

PubMed

Shore, Roy; Walsh, Linda; Azizova, Tamara; Rühm, Werner

2017-10-01

Estimated radiation risks used for radiation protection purposes have been based primarily on the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors who received brief exposures at high dose rates, many with high doses. Information is needed regarding radiation risks from low dose-rate (LDR) exposures to low linear-energy-transfer (low-LET) radiation. We conducted a meta-analysis of LDR epidemiologic studies that provide dose-response estimates of total solid cancer risk in adulthood in comparison to corresponding LSS risks, in order to estimate a dose rate effectiveness factor (DREF). We identified 22 LDR studies with dose-response risk estimates for solid cancer after minimizing information overlap. For each study, a parallel risk estimate was derived from the LSS risk model using matching values for sex, mean ages at first exposure and attained age, targeted cancer types, and accounting for type of dosimetric assessment. For each LDR study, a ratio of the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR Gy -1 ) to the matching LSS ERR risk estimate (LDR/LSS) was calculated, and a meta-analysis of the risk ratios was conducted. The reciprocal of the resultant risk ratio provided an estimate of the DREF. The meta-analysis showed a LDR/LSS risk ratio of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14, 0.57) for the 19 studies of solid cancer mortality and 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.54) when three cohorts with only incidence data also were added, implying a DREF with values around 3, but statistically compatible with 2. However, the analyses were highly dominated by the Mayak worker study. When the Mayak study was excluded the LDR/LSS risk ratios increased: 1.12 (95% CI 0.40, 1.84) for mortality and 0.54 (95% CI 0.09, 0.99) for mortality + incidence, implying a lower DREF in the range of 1-2. Meta-analyses that included only cohorts in which the mean dose was <100 mGy yielded a risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.30, 1.83) for solid cancer mortality and 0.58 (95% CI 0.10, 1.06) for mortality�

Estimating shortwave solar radiation using net radiation and meteorological measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Shortwave radiation has a wide variety of uses in land-atmosphere interactions research. Actual evapotranspiration estimation that involves stomatal conductance models like Jarvis and Ball-Berry require shortwave radiation to estimate photon flux density. However, in most weather stations, shortwave...

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.;

Knowledge of medical imaging radiation dose and risk among doctors.

PubMed

Brown, Nicholas; Jones, Lee

2013-02-01

The growth of computed tomography (CT) and nuclear medicine (NM) scans has revolutionised healthcare but also greatly increased population radiation doses. Overuse of diagnostic radiation is becoming a feature of medical practice, leading to possible unnecessary radiation exposures and lifetime-risks of developing cancer. Doctors across all medical specialties and experience levels were surveyed to determine their knowledge of radiation doses and potential risks associated with some diagnostic imaging. A survey relating to knowledge and understanding of medical imaging radiation was distributed to doctors at 14 major Queensland public hospitals, as well as fellows and trainees in radiology, emergency medicine and general practice. From 608 valid responses, only 17.3% correctly estimated the radiation dose from CT scans and almost 1 in 10 incorrectly believed that CT radiation is not associated with any increased lifetime risk of developing cancer. There is a strong inverse relationship between a clinician's experience and their knowledge of CT radiation dose and risks, even among radiologists. More than a third (35.7%) of doctors incorrectly believed that typical NM imaging either does not use ionising radiation or emits doses equal to or less than a standard chest radiograph. Knowledge of CT and NM radiation doses is poor across all specialties, and there is a significant inverse relationship between experience and awareness of CT dose and risk. Despite having a poor understanding of these concepts, most doctors claim to consider them prior to requesting scans and when discussing potential risks with patients. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Medical Imaging and Radiation Oncology © 2012 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003.

PubMed

Shimizu, Yukiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Nishi, Nobuo; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Suyama, Akihiko; Soda, Midori; Grant, Eric J; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Moriwaki, Hiroko; Hayashi, Mikiko; Konda, Manami; Shore, Roy E

2010-01-14

To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A.; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J.; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G.; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M.

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

Transport calculations and accelerator experiments needed for radiation risk assessment in space.

PubMed

Sihver, Lembit

2008-01-01

The major uncertainties on space radiation risk estimates in humans are associated to the poor knowledge of the biological effects of low and high LET radiation, with a smaller contribution coming from the characterization of space radiation field and its primary interactions with the shielding and the human body. However, to decrease the uncertainties on the biological effects and increase the accuracy of the risk coefficients for charged particles radiation, the initial charged-particle spectra from the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and the Solar Particle Events (SPEs), and the radiation transport through the shielding material of the space vehicle and the human body, must be better estimated Since it is practically impossible to measure all primary and secondary particles from all possible position-projectile-target-energy combinations needed for a correct risk assessment in space, accurate particle and heavy ion transport codes must be used. These codes are also needed when estimating the risk for radiation induced failures in advanced microelectronics, such as single-event effects, etc., and the efficiency of different shielding materials. It is therefore important that the models and transport codes will be carefully benchmarked and validated to make sure they fulfill preset accuracy criteria, e.g. to be able to predict particle fluence, dose and energy distributions within a certain accuracy. When validating the accuracy of the transport codes, both space and ground based accelerator experiments are needed The efficiency of passive shielding and protection of electronic devices should also be tested in accelerator experiments and compared to simulations using different transport codes. In this paper different multipurpose particle and heavy ion transport codes will be presented, different concepts of shielding and protection discussed, as well as future accelerator experiments needed for testing and validating codes and shielding materials.

Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2008-01-01

Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk

Estimating cancer risk from 99mTc pyrophosphate imaging for transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis.

PubMed

Einstein, Andrew J; Shuryak, Igor; Castaño, Adam; Mintz, Akiva; Maurer, Mathew S; Bokhari, Sabahat

2018-05-30

Increasing recognition that transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) is much more common than previously appreciated and the emergence of novel disease-modifying therapeutic agents have led to a paradigm shift in which ATTR-CA screening is considered in high-risk populations, such as patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) or aortic stenosis. Radiation risk from 99m Tc-pyrophosphate ( 99m Tc-PYP) scintigraphy, a test with very high sensitivity and specificity for ATTR-CA, has not been previously determined. Radiation doses to individual organs from 99m Tc-PYP were estimated using models developed by the Medical Internal Radiation Dose Committee and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Excess future cancer risks were estimated from organ doses, using risk projection models developed by the National Academies and extended by the National Cancer Institute. Excess future risks were estimated for men and women aged 40-80 and compared to total (excess plus baseline) future risks. All-organ excess cancer risks (90% uncertainty intervals) ranged from 5.88 (2.45,11.4) to 12.2 (4.11,26.0) cases per 100,000 patients undergoing 99m Tc-PYP testing, were similar for men and women, and decreased with increasing age at testing. Cancer risks were highest to the urinary bladder, and bladder risk varied nearly twofold depending on which model was used. Excess 99m Tc-PYP-related cancers constituted < 1% of total future cancers to the critical organs. Very low cancer risks associated with 99m Tc-PYP testing suggest a favorable benefit-risk profile for 99m Tc-PYP as a screening test for ATTR-CA in high-risk populations, such as such as patients with HFpEF or aortic stenosis.

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea.

PubMed

Seong, Ki Moon; Kwon, TaeWoo; Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert's risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public's risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts' radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual's opinions have often exacerbated the public's confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years' research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at < 100 millisievert could alter the public's risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects < 100 millisievert is necessary for successful public communication. We concluded that sustained education addressing scientific findings is a critical attribute that will affect the risk perception of radiation exposure.

Perception of low dose radiation risks among radiation researchers in Korea

PubMed Central

Seo, Songwon; Lee, Dalnim; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo; Lee, Seung-Sook

2017-01-01

Expert’s risk evaluation of radiation exposure strongly influences the public’s risk perception. Experts can inform laypersons of significant radiation information including health knowledge based on experimental data. However, some experts’ radiation risk perception is often based on non-conclusive scientific evidence (i.e., radiation levels below 100 millisievert), which is currently under debate. Examining perception levels among experts is important for communication with the public since these individual’s opinions have often exacerbated the public’s confusion. We conducted a survey of Korean radiation researchers to investigate their perceptions of the risks associated with radiation exposure below 100 millisievert. A linear regression analysis revealed that having ≥ 11 years’ research experience was a critical factor associated with radiation risk perception, which was inversely correlated with each other. Increased opportunities to understand radiation effects at < 100 millisievert could alter the public’s risk perception of radiation exposure. In addition, radiation researchers conceived that more scientific evidence reducing the uncertainty for radiation effects < 100 millisievert is necessary for successful public communication. We concluded that sustained education addressing scientific findings is a critical attribute that will affect the risk perception of radiation exposure. PMID:28166286

Risk of a second cancer from scattered radiation in acoustic neuroma treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyunho; Sung, Jiwon; Shin, Dongoh; Park, Sungho; Chung, Weon Kuu; Jahng, Geon-Ho; Kim, Dong Wook

2014-06-01

The present study aimed to compare the risk of a secondary cancer from scattered and leakage doses in patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of a secondary cancer were estimated using the corresponding secondary doses measured at various organs by using radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, liver, bowel, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were 14.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 cGy, respectively, for IMRT whereas they were 19.1, 1.8, 2.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.4 cGy, respectively, for VMAT, and 22.8, 4.6, 1.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.5 cGy, respectively, for SRS. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A lifetime attributable risk evaluation estimated that more than 0.03% of acoustic neuroma (AN) patients would get radiation-induced cancer within 20 years of receiving radiation therapy. The organ with the highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN was the thyroid. We found that the LAR could be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part I. Development and validation of a Monte Carlo program

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dose-reporting system that provides dose and risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. As the first step toward patient-specific dose and risk estimation, this article aimed to develop a method for accurately assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. Methods: A Monte Carlo program was developed to model a CT system (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare). The geometry of the system, the energy spectra of the x-ray source, the three-dimensional geometry of the bowtie filters, and the trajectories of source motions during axial and helical scans were explicitly modeled. To validate the accuracy of the program, a cylindrical phantom was built to enable dose measurements at seven different radial distances from its central axis. Simulated radial dose distributions in the cylindrical phantom were validated against ion chamber measurements for single axial scans at all combinations of tube potential and bowtie filter settings. The accuracy of the program was further validated using two anthropomorphic phantoms (a pediatric one-year-old phantom and an adult female phantom). Computer models of the two phantoms were created based on their CT data and were voxelized for input into the Monte Carlo program. Simulated dose at various organ locations was compared against measurements made with thermoluminescent dosimetry chips for both single axial and helical scans. Results: For the cylindrical phantom, simulations differed from measurements by −4.8% to 2.2%. For the two anthropomorphic phantoms, the discrepancies between simulations and measurements ranged between (−8.1%, 8.1%) and (−17.2%, 13.0%) for the single axial scans and the helical scans, respectively. Conclusions: The authors developed an accurate Monte Carlo program for assessing radiation dose from CT examinations. When combined with computer models of actual patients, the program can provide accurate dose

Temporal variability patterns in solar radiation estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vindel, José M.; Navarro, Ana A.; Valenzuela, Rita X.; Zarzalejo, Luis F.

2016-06-01

In this work, solar radiation estimations obtained from a satellite and a numerical weather prediction model in mainland Spain have been compared. Similar comparisons have been formerly carried out, but in this case, the methodology used is different: the temporal variability of both sources of estimation has been compared with the annual evolution of the radiation associated to the different study climate zones. The methodology is based on obtaining behavior patterns, using a Principal Component Analysis, following the annual evolution of solar radiation estimations. Indeed, the adjustment degree to these patterns in each point (assessed from maps of correlation) may be associated with the annual radiation variation (assessed from the interquartile range), which is associated, in turn, to different climate zones. In addition, the goodness of each estimation source has been assessed comparing it with data obtained from the radiation measurements in ground by pyranometers. For the study, radiation data from Satellite Application Facilities and data corresponding to the reanalysis carried out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have been used.

Do changes in biomarkers from space radiation reflect dose or risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, A.

The space environment is made up of many different kinds of radiation so that the proper use of biomarkers is essential to estimate radiation risk. This presentation will evaluate differences between biomarkers of dose and risk and demonstrate why they should not be confused following radiation exposures in deep space. Dose is a physical quantity, while risk is a biological quantity. Many examples exist w ereh dose or changes in biomarkers of dose are inappropriately used as predictors of risk. Without information on the biology of the system, the biomarkers of dose provide little help in predicting risk in tissues or radiation exposure types where no excess risk can be demonstrated. Many of these biomarkers of dose only reflect changes in radiation dose or exposure. However, these markers are often incorrectly used to predict risk. For example, exposure of the trachea or of the deep lung to high-LET alpha particles results in similar changes in the biomarker chromosome damage in these two tissues. Such an observation would predict that the risk for cancer induction would be similar in these two tissues. It has been noted , however, that there has never been a tracheal tumor observed in rats that inhaled radon, but with the same exposure, large numbers of tumors were produced in the deep lung. The biology of the different tissues is the major determinant of the risk rather than the radiation dose. Recognition of this fact has resulted in the generation of tissue weighting factors for use in radiation protection. When tissue weighting factors are used the values derived are still called "dose". It is important to recognize that tissue specific observations have been corrected to reflect risk, and therefore should no longer be viewed as dose. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) is also used to estimate radiation risk. The use of biomarkers to derive RBE is a difficult since it involves the use of a biological response to a standard low-LET reference radiation

Reduction of the estimated radiation dose and associated patient risk with prospective ECG-gated 256-slice CT coronary angiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstathopoulos, E. P.; Kelekis, N. L.; Pantos, I.; Brountzos, E.; Argentos, S.; Grebáč, J.; Ziaka, D.; Katritsis, D. G.; Seimenis, I.

2009-09-01

Computed tomography (CT) coronary angiography has been widely used since the introduction of 64-slice scanners and dual-source CT technology, but high radiation doses have been reported. Prospective ECG-gating using a 'step-and-shoot' axial scanning protocol has been shown to reduce radiation exposure effectively while maintaining diagnostic accuracy. 256-slice scanners with 80 mm detector coverage have been currently introduced into practice, but their impact on radiation exposure has not been adequately studied. The aim of this study was to assess radiation doses associated with CT coronary angiography using a 256-slice CT scanner. Radiation doses were estimated for 25 patients scanned with either prospective or retrospective ECG-gating. Image quality was assessed objectively in terms of mean CT attenuation at selected regions of interest on axial coronary images and subjectively by coronary segment quality scoring. It was found that radiation doses associated with prospective ECG-gating were significantly lower than retrospective ECG-gating (3.2 ± 0.6 mSv versus 13.4 ± 2.7 mSv). Consequently, the radiogenic fatal cancer risk for the patient is much lower with prospective gating (0.0176% versus 0.0737%). No statistically significant differences in image quality were observed between the two scanning protocols for both objective and subjective quality assessments. Therefore, prospective ECG-gating using a 'step-and-shoot' protocol that covers the cardiac anatomy in two axial acquisitions effectively reduces radiation doses in 256-slice CT coronary angiography without compromising image quality.

Estimating solar radiation for plant simulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, T.; French, V.; Leduc, S.

1985-01-01

Five algorithms producing daily solar radiation surrogates using daily temperatures and rainfall were evaluated using measured solar radiation data for seven U.S. locations. The algorithms were compared both in terms of accuracy of daily solar radiation estimates and terms of response when used in a plant growth simulation model (CERES-wheat). Requirements for accuracy of solar radiation for plant growth simulation models are discussed. One algorithm is recommended as being best suited for use in these models when neither measured nor satellite estimated solar radiation values are available.

Exposure to diagnostic radiation and risk of breast cancer among carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations: retrospective cohort study (GENE-RAD-RISK).

PubMed

Pijpe, Anouk; Andrieu, Nadine; Easton, Douglas F; Kesminiene, Ausrele; Cardis, Elisabeth; Noguès, Catherine; Gauthier-Villars, Marion; Lasset, Christine; Fricker, Jean-Pierre; Peock, Susan; Frost, Debra; Evans, D Gareth; Eeles, Rosalind A; Paterson, Joan; Manders, Peggy; van Asperen, Christi J; Ausems, Margreet G E M; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Thierry-Chef, Isabelle; Hauptmann, Michael; Goldgar, David; Rookus, Matti A; van Leeuwen, Flora E

2012-09-06

To estimate the risk of breast cancer associated with diagnostic radiation in carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. Retrospective cohort study (GENE-RAD-RISK). Three nationwide studies (GENEPSO, EMBRACE, HEBON) in France, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, 1993 female carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations recruited in 2006-09. Risk of breast cancer estimated with a weighted Cox proportional hazards model with a time dependent individually estimated cumulative breast dose, based on nominal estimates of organ dose and frequency of self reported diagnostic procedures. To correct for potential survival bias, the analysis excluded carriers who were diagnosed more than five years before completion of the study questionnaire. In carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations any exposure to diagnostic radiation before the age of 30 was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 3.00), with a dose-response pattern. The risks by quarter of estimated cumulative dose <0.0020 Gy, ≥ 0.0020-0.0065 Gy, ≥ 0.0066-0.0173 Gy, and ≥ 0.0174 Gy were 1.63 (0.96 to 2.77), 1.78 (0.88 to 3.58), 1.75 (0.72 to 4.25), and 3.84 (1.67 to 8.79), respectively. Analyses on the different types of diagnostic procedures showed a pattern of increasing risk with increasing number of radiographs before age 20 and before age 30 compared with no exposure. A history of mammography before age 30 was also associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio 1.43, 0.85 to 2.40). Sensitivity analysis showed that this finding was not caused by confounding by indication of family history. In this large European study among carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, exposure to diagnostic radiation before age 30 was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer at dose levels considerably lower than those at which increases have been found in other cohorts exposed to radiation. The results of this study support the use of non-ionising radiation imaging techniques (such as

[Radiation conditions and radiation risks for cosmonauts flying to Mars using electrical jet microthrusters].

PubMed

Shafirkin, A V; Kolomenskiĭ, A V

2008-01-01

According to recent workups, the Mars mission spacecraft will be designed with an electrical jet microthrusters rather than a power reactor facility. The article contains analysis of the main sources of radiation hazard during the exploration mission using this cost-efficient, ecological, easy-to-operate propulsion powered by solar arrays. In addition, the authors make predictions of the generalized doses of ionizing radiation for mission durations of 730 and 900 days behind various shielding thicknesses, and on the Martian surface. Calculation algorithms are described and radiation risks are estimated for the crew life span and possible life time reduction in consequence of participation in the mission.

Estimation of Second Primary Cancer Risk After Treatment with Radioactive Iodine for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma.

PubMed

Corrêa, Nilton Lavatori; de Sá, Lidia Vasconcellos; de Mello, Rossana Corbo Ramalho

2017-02-01

An increase in the incidence of second primary cancers is the late effect of greatest concern that could occur in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). The decision to treat a patient with RAI should therefore incorporate a careful risk-benefit analysis. The objective of this work was to adapt the risk-estimation models developed by the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee to local epidemiological characteristics in order to assess the carcinogenesis risk from radiation in a population of Brazilian DTC patients treated with RAI. Absorbed radiation doses in critical organs were also estimated to determine whether they exceeded the thresholds for deterministic effects. A total of 416 DTC patients treated with RAI were retrospectively studied. Four organs were selected for absorbed dose estimation and subsequent calculation of carcinogenic risk: the kidney, stomach, salivary glands, and bone marrow. Absorbed doses were calculated by dose factors (absorbed dose per unit activity administered) previously established and based on standard human models. The lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of incidence of cancer as a function of age, sex, and organ-specific dose was estimated, relating it to the activity of RAI administered in the initial treatment. The salivary glands received the greatest absorbed doses of radiation, followed by the stomach, kidney, and bone marrow. None of these, however, surpassed the threshold for deterministic effects for a single administration of RAI. Younger patients received the same level of absorbed dose in the critical organs as older patients did. The lifetime attributable risk for stomach cancer incidence was by far the highest, followed in descending order by salivary-gland cancer, leukemia, and kidney cancer. RAI in a single administration is safe in terms of deterministic effects because even high-administered activities do not result in absorbed doses that exceed the

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment.

PubMed

Barcellos-Hoff, Mary Helen; Blakely, Eleanor A; Burma, Sandeep; Fornace, Albert J; Gerson, Stanton; Hlatky, Lynn; Kirsch, David G; Luderer, Ulrike; Shay, Jerry; Wang, Ya; Weil, Michael M

2015-07-01

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative radiation exposure and associated cancer risk estimates for scoliosis patients: Impact of repetitive full spine radiography.

PubMed

Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Chan, Eva; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

2016-03-01

To quantitatively evaluate the cumulative effective dose and associated cancer risk for scoliotic patients undergoing repetitive full spine radiography during their diagnosis and follow up periods. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic patients at different age were computer simulated with the use of PCXMC software. Gender specific effective dose was then calculated with the ICRP-103 approach. Values of lifetime attributable cancer risk for patients exposed at different age were calculated for both patient genders and for Asian and Western population. Mathematical fitting for effective dose and for lifetime attributable cancer risk, as function of exposed age, was analytically obtained to quantitatively estimate patient cumulated effective dose and cancer risk. The cumulative effective dose of full spine radiography with posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed annually at age between 5 and 30 years using digital radiography system was calculated as 15mSv. The corresponding cumulative lifetime attributable cancer risk for Asian and Western population was calculated as 0.08-0.17%. Female scoliotic patients would be at a statistically significant higher cumulated cancer risk than male patients under the same full spine radiography protocol. We demonstrate the use of computer simulation and analytic formula to quantitatively obtain the cumulated effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure, both of which are valuable information to medical personnel and patients' parents concern about radiation safety in repetitive full spine radiography. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution.

PubMed Central

Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

1994-01-01

The usefulness of data from various sources for a cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution is discussed. Considering the irreversibility of initiations, a multiplicative model is preferred for solid tumors. As has been concluded for exposure to ionizing radiation, the multiplicative model, in comparison with the additive model, predicts a relatively larger number of cases at high ages, with enhanced underestimation of risks by short follow-up times in disease-epidemiological studies. For related reasons, the extrapolation of risk from animal tests on the basis of daily absorbed dose per kilogram body weight or per square meter surface area without considering differences in life span may lead to an underestimation, and agreements with epidemiologically determined values may be fortuitous. Considering these possibilities, the most likely lifetime risks of cancer death at the average exposure levels in Sweden were estimated for certain pollution fractions or indicator compounds in urban air. The risks amount to approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 for inhaled particulate organic material (POM), with a contribution from ingested POM about three times larger, and alkenes, and butadiene cause 20 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 individuals. Also, benzene and formaldehyde are expected to be associated with considerable risk increments. Comparative potency methods were applied for POM and alkenes. Due to incompleteness of the list of compounds considered and the uncertainties of the above estimates, the total risk calculation from urban air has not been attempted here. PMID:7821292

Risk of breast cancer following low-dose radiation exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boice, J.D. Jr.; Land, C.E.; Shore, R.E.

1979-06-01

Risk of breast cancer following radiation exposure was studied, based on surveys of tuberculosis patients who had multiple fluoroscopic examinations of the chest, mastitis patients given radiotherapy, and atomic bomb survivors. Analysis suggests that the risk is greatest for persons exposed as adolescents, although exposure at all ages carries some risk. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity in all studies. Direct evidence of radiation risk at doses under 0.5 Gy (50 rad) is apparent among A-bomb survivors. Fractionation does not appear to diminish risk, nor does time since exposure (even after 45 years of observation). The interval between exposuremore » and the clinical appearance of radiogenic breast cancer may be mediated by hormonal or other age-related factors but is unrelated to dose. Age-specific absolute risk estimtes for all studies are remarkably similar. The best estimate of risk among American women exposed after age 20 is 6.6 excess cancers/10/sup 4/ WY-Gy (10/sup 6/ WY-rad).« less

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

PubMed Central

Hendry, Jolyon H; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

2014-01-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case–control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case–control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors. PMID:19454802

Cancer risk above 1 Gy and the impact for space radiation protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Uwe; Walsh, Linda

2009-07-01

Analyses of the epidemiological data on the Japanese A-bomb survivors, who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons, provide most current information on the dose-response of radiation-induced cancer. Since the dose span of main interest is usually between 0 and 1 Gy, for radiation protection purposes, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is often focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses larger than 1 Gy are becoming more important for long-term manned space missions. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses larger than 1 Gy with respect to radiation-induced solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The present analysis of the A-bomb survivors data was extended by including two extra high-dose categories and applying organ-averaged dose instead of the colon-weighted dose. In addition, since there are some recent indications for a high neutron dose contribution, the data were fitted separately for three different values for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the neutrons (10, 35 and 100) and a variable RBE as a function of dose. The data were fitted using a linear and a linear-exponential dose-response relationship using a dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) of both one and two. The work presented here implies that the use of organ-averaged dose, a dose-dependent neutron RBE and the bending-over of the dose-response relationship for radiation-induced cancer could result in a reduction of radiation risk by around 50% above 1 Gy. This could impact radiation risk estimates for space crews on long-term mission above 500 days who might be exposed to doses above 1 Gy. The consequence of using a DDREF of one instead of two increases cancer risk by about 40% and would therefore balance the risk decrease described above.

Secondary Breast Cancer Risk by Radiation Volume in Women With Hodgkin Lymphoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Jessica L.; Department of Surgery, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia; Connors, Joseph M.

Purpose: To determine whether the risk of secondary breast cancer (SBC) is reduced in women with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treated with smaller field radiation therapy (SFRT) versus mantle field radiation therapy (MRT). Methods and Materials: We used the BC Cancer Agency (BCCA) Lymphoid Cancer Database to identify female patients treated for HL between January 1961 and December 2009. Radiation therapy volumes were categorized as MRT or SFRT, which included involved field, involved site, or involved nodal radiation therapy. SBC risk estimates were compared using competing risk analysis and Fine and Gray multivariable model: MRT ± chemotherapy, SFRT ± chemotherapy, or chemotherapy-only. Results: Of 734 eligible patients,more » 75% of the living patients have been followed up for more than 10 years, SBC has developed in 54, and 15 have died of breast cancer. The 20-year estimated risks (competing risk cumulative incidence) for SBC differed significantly: MRT 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4%-11.5%), SFRT 3.1% (95% CI 1.0%-7.7%), and chemotherapy-only 2.2% (95% CI 1.0%-4.8%) (P=.01). Using a Fine and Gray model to control for death and patients lost to follow-up, MRT was associated with a higher risk of SBC (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.9; 95% CI 1.4%-6.0%; P=.004) compared with chemotherapy-only and with SFRT (HR = 3.3; 95% CI 1.3%-8.4%; P=.01). SFRT was not associated with a greater risk of SBC compared with chemotherapy-only (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.28%-2.66%; P=.80). Conclusion: This study confirms that large-volume MRT is associated with a markedly increased risk of SBC; however, more modern small-volume RT is not associated with a greater risk of SBC than chemotherapy alone.« less

Integration of a radiation biomarker into modeling of thyroid carcinogenesis and post-Chernobyl risk assessment.

PubMed

Kaiser, Jan Christian; Meckbach, Reinhard; Eidemüller, Markus; Selmansberger, Martin; Unger, Kristian; Shpak, Viktor; Blettner, Maria; Zitzelsberger, Horst; Jacob, Peter

2016-12-01

Strong evidence for the statistical association between radiation exposure and disease has been produced for thyroid cancer by epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl accident. However, limitations of the epidemiological approach in order to explore health risks especially at low doses of radiation appear obvious. Statistical fluctuations due to small case numbers dominate the uncertainty of risk estimates. Molecular radiation markers have been searched extensively to separate radiation-induced cancer cases from sporadic cases. The overexpression of the CLIP2 gene is the most promising of these markers. It was found in the majority of papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from young patients included in the Chernobyl tissue bank. Motivated by the CLIP2 findings we propose a mechanistic model which describes PTC development as a sequence of rate-limiting events in two distinct paths of CLIP2-associated and multistage carcinogenesis. It integrates molecular measurements of the dichotomous CLIP2 marker from 141 patients into the epidemiological risk analysis for about 13 000 subjects from the Ukrainian-American cohort which were exposed below age 19 years and were put under enhanced medical surveillance since 1998. For the first time, a radiation risk has been estimated solely from marker measurements. Cross checking with epidemiological estimates and model validation suggests that CLIP2 is a marker of high precision. CLIP2 leaves an imprint in the epidemiological incidence data which is typical for a driver gene. With the mechanistic model, we explore the impact of radiation on the molecular landscape of PTC. The model constitutes a unique interface between molecular biology and radiation epidemiology. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Risks of secondary malignancies with heterotopic bone radiation therapy for patients younger than 40 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cadieux, Catherine L., E-mail: ccadieux@umail.iu.edu; DesRosiers, Colleen; McMullen, Kevin

Heterotopic ossification (HO) of the bone is defined as a benign condition in which abnormal bone formation occurs in soft tissue. One of the most common prophylactic treatments for HO is radiation therapy (RT). This study retrospectively reviewed 20 patients younger than the age of 40 who received radiation to prevent HO in a single fraction of 7 Gray. The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of a second malignancy in these patients by recreating their treatment fields and contouring organs at risk to estimate the radiation dose absorbed by normal tissues outside the radiation treatment field.more » Diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans for each patient were used to recreate treatment fields and to calculate dose to structures of interest. The distance from the field edge to each structure and its depth was recorded. Dose measurements in a water phantom were performed for the range of depths, distances, and field sizes used in the actual treatment plans. Computer-generated doses were compared to estimates based on measurement. The structure dose recorded was the higher dose generated between the 2 methods. Scatter dose was recorded to the rectum, bladder, sigmoid colon, small bowel, ovaries and utero-cervix in female patients, and prostate and gonads in male patients. In some patients, there is considerable dose received by certain organs from scatter because of their proximity to the radiation field. The average dose to the ovarian region was 4.125 Gy with a range of 1.085 to 6.228 Gy. The risk estimate for these patients ranged from 0.16% to 0.93%. The average total lifetime risk estimate for the bladder in all patients is 0.22% and the average total lifetime risk estimate for the remainder organs in all patients is 1.25%. In conclusions, proper shielding created from multileaf collimators (MLCs), blocks, and shields should always be used when possible.« less

SU-E-T-208: Incidence Cancer Risk From the Radiation Treatment for Acoustic Neuroma Patient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, D; Chung, W; Shin, D

2014-06-01

Purpose: The present study aimed to compare the incidence risk of a secondary cancer from therapeutic doses in patients receiving intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods: Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their incidnece excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) were estimated using the corresponding therapeutic doses measured at various organs by radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. Results: When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalentmore » doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, normal liver, colon, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were measured. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A LAR were estimated that more than 0.03% of AN patients would get radiation-induced cancer. Conclusion: The tyroid was highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN. We found that LAR can be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.« less

Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

Imaging Radiation Doses and Associated Risks and Benefits in Subjects Participating in Breast Cancer Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Spera, Gonzalo; Meyer, Carlos; Cabral, Pablo; Mackey, John R.

2015-01-01

Background. Medical imaging is commonly required in breast cancer (BC) clinical trials to assess the efficacy and/or safety of study interventions. Despite the lack of definitive epidemiological data linking imaging radiation with cancer development in adults, concerns exist about the risks of imaging radiation-induced malignancies (IRIMs) in subjects exposed to repetitive imaging. We estimated the imaging radiation dose and IRIM risk in subjects participating in BC trials. Materials and Methods. The imaging protocol requirements in 10 phase III trials in the adjuvant and advanced settings were assessed to estimate the effective radiation dose received by a typical and fully compliant subject in each trial. For each study, the excess lifetime attributable cancer risk (LAR) was calculated using the National Cancer Institute’s Radiation Risk Assessment Tool, version 3.7.1. Dose and risk calculations were performed for both imaging intensive and nonintensive approaches to reflect the variability in imaging performed within the studies. Results. The total effective imaging radiation dose was 0.4–262.2 mSv in adjuvant trials and 26–241.3 mSv in metastatic studies. The dose variability resulted from differing protocol requirements and imaging intensity approaches, with computed tomography, multigated acquisition scans, and bone scans as the major contributors. The mean LAR was 1.87–2,410/100,000 in adjuvant trials (IRIM: 0.0002%–2.41% of randomized subjects) and 6.9–67.3/100,000 in metastatic studies (IRIM: 0.007%–0.067% of subjects). Conclusion. IRIMs are infrequent events. In adjuvant trials, aligning the protocol requirements with the clinical guidelines’ surveillance recommendations and substituting radiating procedures with equivalent nonradiating ones would reduce IRIM risk. No significant risk has been observed in metastatic trials, and potential concerns on IRIMs are not justified. Implications for Practice: Medical imaging is key in breast cancer

Space Radiation Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blakely, E.

Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

Are passive smoking, air pollution and obesity a greater mortality risk than major radiation incidents?

PubMed Central

Smith, Jim T

2007-01-01

Background Following a nuclear incident, the communication and perception of radiation risk becomes a (perhaps the) major public health issue. In response to such incidents it is therefore crucial to communicate radiation health risks in the context of other more common environmental and lifestyle risk factors. This study compares the risk of mortality from past radiation exposures (to people who survived the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs and those exposed after the Chernobyl accident) with risks arising from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Methods A comparative assessment of mortality risks from ionising radiation was carried out by estimating radiation risks for realistic exposure scenarios and assessing those risks in comparison with risks from air pollution, obesity and passive and active smoking. Results The mortality risk to populations exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident may be no higher than that for other more common risk factors such as air pollution or passive smoking. Radiation exposures experienced by the most exposed group of survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to an average loss of life expectancy significantly lower than that caused by severe obesity or active smoking. Conclusion Population-averaged risks from exposures following major radiation incidents are clearly significant, but may be no greater than those from other much more common environmental and lifestyle factors. This comparative analysis, whilst highlighting inevitable uncertainties in risk quantification and comparison, helps place the potential consequences of radiation exposures in the context of other public health risks. PMID:17407581

Individual-based model for radiation risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smirnova, O.

A mathematical model is developed which enables one to predict the life span probability for mammals exposed to radiation. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of an organism's critical system. To calculate the dynamics of the latter, the respective mathematical model is used too. This approach is applied to describe the effects of low level chronic irradiation on mice when the hematopoietic system (namely, thrombocytopoiesis) is the critical one. For identification of the joint model, experimental data on hematopoiesis in nonirradiated and irradiated mice, as well as on mortality dynamics of those in the absence of radiation are utilized. The life span probability and life span shortening predicted by the model agree with corresponding experimental data. Modeling results show the significance of ac- counting the variability of the individual radiosensitivity of critical system cells when estimating the radiation risk. These findings are corroborated by clinical data on persons involved in the elimination of the Chernobyl catastrophe after- effects. All this makes it feasible to use the model for radiation risk assessments for cosmonauts and astronauts on long-term missions such as a voyage to Mars or a lunar colony. In this case the model coefficients have to be determined by making use of the available data for humans. Scenarios for the dynamics of dose accumulation during space flights should also be taken into account.

Animal studies of life shortening and cancer risk from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, D. H.; Yochmowitz, M. G.; Hardy, K. A.; Salmon, Y. L.

The U. S. Air Force study of the delayed effects of single, total body exposures to simulated space radiation in rhesus monkeys is now in its 21st year. Observations on 301 irradiated and 57 age-matched control animals indicate that life expectancy loss from exposure to protons in the energy range encountered in the Van Allen belts and solar proton events can be expressed as a logarithmic function of the dose. The primary causes of life shortening are cancer and endometriosis (an abnormal proliferation of the lining of the uterus in females). Life shortening estimates permit comparison of the risk associated with space radiation exposures to be compared with that of other occupational and environmental hazards, thereby facilitating risk/benefit decisions in the planning and operational phases of manned space missions. Calculations of the relative risk of fatal cancers in the irradiated subjects reveal that the total body surface dose required to double the risk of death from cancer over a 20-year post exposure period varies with the linear energy transfer (LET) of the radiation. The ability to determine the integrated dose and LET spectrum in space radiation exposures of human is, therefore, critical to the assessment of life-time cancer risk.

Principles of estimation of Radiative danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korogodin, V. I.

1990-08-01

The main principles of the estimation of Radiative danger has been discussed. Two main particularities of the danger were pointed out: negatve consequencies of small doses, which does not lead to radiation sickness, but lead to disfunctions of sanguine organs and thin intestines; absolute estimation of biological anomalies, which was forwarded by A.D. Sakharov (1921-1989). The ethic aspects of the use of Nuclear weapons on the fate of Human civilization were pointed out by A.D. Sakharov (1921-1990).

Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

PubMed

Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

2015-01-01

After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

Solar cosmic rays as a specific source of radiation risk during piloted space flight.

PubMed

Petrov, V M

2004-01-01

Solar cosmic rays present one of several radiation sources that are unique to space flight. Under ground conditions the exposure to individuals has a controlled form and radiation risk occurs as stochastic radiobiological effects. Existence of solar cosmic rays in space leads to a stochastic mode of radiation environment as a result of which any radiobiological consequences of exposure to solar cosmic rays during the flight will be probabilistic values. In this case, the hazard of deterministic effects should also be expressed in radiation risk values. The main deterministic effect under space conditions is radiation sickness. The best dosimetric functional for its analysis is the blood forming organs dose equivalent but not an effective dose. In addition, the repair processes in red bone marrow affect strongly on the manifestation of this pathology and they must be taken into account for radiation risk assessment. A method for taking into account the mentioned above peculiarities for the solar cosmic rays radiation risk assessment during the interplanetary flights is given in the report. It is shown that radiation risk of deterministic effects defined, as the death probability caused by radiation sickness due to acute solar cosmic rays exposure, can be comparable to risk of stochastic effects. Its value decreases strongly because of the fractional mode of exposure during the orbital movement of the spacecraft. On the contrary, during the interplanetary flight, radiation risk of deterministic effects increases significantly because of the residual component of the blood forming organs dose from previous solar proton events. The noted quality of radiation responses must be taken into account for estimating radiation hazard in space. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

PubMed

Chung, Chul E; Ramanathan, V; Decremer, Damien

2012-07-17

Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon.

Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing

PubMed Central

Chung, Chul E.; Ramanathan, V.; Decremer, Damien

2012-01-01

Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm-2, to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm-2. This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm-2 (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm-2, thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon. PMID:22753522

Getting ready for the manned mission to Mars: the astronauts' risk from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellweg, Christine E.; Baumstark-Khan, Christa

2007-07-01

Space programmes are shifting towards planetary exploration and, in particular, towards missions by human beings to the Moon and to Mars. Radiation is considered to be one of the major hazards for personnel in space and has emerged as the most critical issue to be resolved for long-term missions both orbital and interplanetary. The two cosmic sources of radiation that could impact a mission outside the Earth’s magnetic field are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. Predictions of cancer risk and acceptable radiation exposure in space are extrapolated from minimal data and are subject to many uncertainties. The paper describes present-day estimates of equivalent doses from GCR and solar cosmic radiation behind various shields and radiation risks for astronauts on a mission to Mars.

Getting ready for the manned mission to Mars: the astronauts' risk from space radiation.

PubMed

Hellweg, Christine E; Baumstark-Khan, Christa

2007-07-01

Space programmes are shifting towards planetary exploration and, in particular, towards missions by human beings to the Moon and to Mars. Radiation is considered to be one of the major hazards for personnel in space and has emerged as the most critical issue to be resolved for long-term missions both orbital and interplanetary. The two cosmic sources of radiation that could impact a mission outside the Earth's magnetic field are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. Predictions of cancer risk and acceptable radiation exposure in space are extrapolated from minimal data and are subject to many uncertainties. The paper describes present-day estimates of equivalent doses from GCR and solar cosmic radiation behind various shields and radiation risks for astronauts on a mission to Mars.

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for

Female gonadal shielding with automatic exposure control increases radiation risks.

PubMed

Kaplan, Summer L; Magill, Dennise; Felice, Marc A; Xiao, Rui; Ali, Sayed; Zhu, Xiaowei

2018-02-01

Gonadal shielding remains common, but current estimates of gonadal radiation risk are lower than estimated risks to colon and stomach. A female gonadal shield may attenuate active automatic exposure control (AEC) sensors, resulting in increased dose to colon and stomach as well as to ovaries outside the shielded area. We assess changes in dose-area product (DAP) and absorbed organ dose when female gonadal shielding is used with AEC for pelvis radiography. We imaged adult and 5-year-old equivalent dosimetry phantoms using pelvis radiograph technique with AEC in the presence and absence of a female gonadal shield. We recorded DAP and mAs and measured organ absorbed dose at six internal sites using film dosimetry. Female gonadal shielding with AEC increased DAP 63% for the 5-year-old phantom and 147% for the adult phantom. Absorbed organ dose at unshielded locations of colon, stomach and ovaries increased 21-51% in the 5-year-old phantom and 17-100% in the adult phantom. Absorbed organ dose sampled under the shield decreased 67% in the 5-year-old phantom and 16% in the adult phantom. Female gonadal shielding combined with AEC during pelvic radiography increases absorbed dose to organs with greater radiation sensitivity and to unshielded ovaries. Difficulty in proper use of gonadal shields has been well described, and use of female gonadal shielding may be inadvisable given the risks of increasing radiation.

Estimating Risk of Hematopoietic Acute Radiation Syndrome in Children.

PubMed

Adams, Tim G; Sumner, Louise E; Casagrande, Rocco

2017-12-01

Following a radiological terrorist attack or radiation accident, the general public may be exposed to radiation. Historically, modeling efforts have focused on radiation effects on a "reference man"-a 70-kg, 180-cm-tall, 20- to 30-y-old male-which does not adequately reflect radiation hazard to special populations, particularly children. This work examines the radiosensitivity of children with respect to reference man to develop a set of parameters for modeling hematopoetic acute radiation syndrome in children. This analysis was performed using animal studies and the results verified using data from medical studies. Overall, the hematopoietic system in children is much more radiosensitive than that in adults, with the LD50 for children being 56% to 91% of the LD50 of adults, depending on age.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-01

The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2012-01-01

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as

Personalized assessment of radiation risks from the one-stop-shop myocardial 256-slice CT examination.

PubMed

Perisinakis, Kostas; Seimenis, Ioannis; Tzedakis, Antonis; Pagonidis, Kostas; Papadakis, Antonios E; Damilakis, John

2013-10-15

This study provides data on the cumulative life attributable risk (LAR) of radiation-induced cancer from the combination of coronary CT angiography (CCTA), dynamic CT perfusion (CTP) and delayed enhancement (DE) CT scans, required for reliable risk-benefit analysis of the one-stop-shop CCTA + CTP + DECT cardiac examination. Monte Carlo simulation of the dynamic CTP and DECT exposures on 62 adult individuals was employed to determine radiation absorbed dose to exposed radiosensitive organs. Corresponding data for CCTA were derived using patient chest circumference and previously published data. Individual-specific LARs of cancer were estimated using organ/tissue-specific radiogenic cancer risk factors. Total LAR from CCTA + CTP + DECT scans' sequence were estimated and compared to nominal intrinsic risk of cancer. The main contribution, up to 80%, to cumulative radiation burden from CCTA + CTP + DECT scan-sequence was found to originate from the CTP scan. The total LAR from CCTA + CTP + DECT for females was found 4-6 times higher, compared to males. The mean cumulative risk of radiogenic cancer associated with the complete CCTA + CTP + DECT scan sequence was found to marginally increase the intrinsic risk for cancer induction by less than 0.6% and 0.1% for females and males, respectively. The radiation risk from the 256-slice CCTA + CTP + DECT scan sequence may be considered low and should not constitute an obstacle for the clinical endorsement of the one-stop-shop cardiac CT examination, given that its clinical value has been well verified. Nevertheless, every effort should be made towards optimization of the dynamic CTP component which is the main contributor to patient radiation burden. © 2013.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Reducing Human Radiation Risks on Deep Space Missions

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

Roadmap (2016). .........................................................108 Figure 53. Risk Assessment for Acute Radiation Syndrome Due to SPEs...Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events Figure 53 highlights the fact that acute radiation syndrome is a short-term risk...acceptable for long-term missions. Figure 53. Risk Assessment for Acute Radiation Syndrome Due to SPEs. Source: NASA Human Research Roadmap (2016

Evidence Report: Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Zarana; Huff, Janice; Saha, Janapriya; Wang, Minli; Blattnig, Steve; Wu, Honglu; Cucinotta, Francis

2015-01-01

(SI unit for ionizing radiation dosage, i.e. one joule of radiation energy per one kilogram of matter)) to facilitate risk prediction. This risk has considerable uncertainty associated with it, and no acceptable model for projecting degenerative tissue risk is currently available. In particular, risk factors such as obesity, alcohol, and tobacco use can act as confounding factors that contribute to the large uncertainties. The PELs could be violated under certain scenarios, including following a large SPE (solar proton event) or long-term GCR (galactic cosmic ray) exposure. Specifically, for a Mars mission, the accumulated dose is sufficiently high that epidemiology data and preliminary risk estimates suggest a significant risk for cardiovascular disease. Ongoing research in this area is intended to provide the evidence base for accurate risk quantification to determine criticality for extended duration missions. Data specific to the space radiation environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of this risk to decrease the uncertainty in current PELs and to determine if additional protection strategies are required. New research results could lead to estimates of cumulative radiation risk from CNS and degenerative tissue diseases that, when combined with the cancer risk, may have major negative impacts on mission design, costs, schedule, and crew selection. The current report amends an earlier report (Human Research Program Requirements Document, HRP-47052, Rev. C, dated Jan 2009) in order to provide an update of evidence since 2009.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amin, Neha P., E-mail: npamin@gmail.com; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale

2013-10-01

Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were createdmore » for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.« less

Impact of the 1980 BEIR-III report on low-level radiation risk assessment, radiation protection guides, and public health policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1981-06-01

The author deals with the scientific basis for establishing appropriate radiation protection guides, and this effect on evaluation of societal activities concerned with the health effects in human populations exposed to low-level radiation. Methodology is discussed for estimating risks of radio-induced cancer and genetically related ill-health in man, the sources of data, the dose-response models used, and the precision ascribed to the process. (PSB)

Radiotherapy for glioma during pregnancy: fetal dose estimates, risk assessment and clinical management.

PubMed

Haba, Y; Twyman, N; Thomas, S J; Overton, C; Dendy, P; Burnet, N G

2004-05-01

Cancer in pregnancy is relatively uncommon, but constitutes a major problem. We report the measurement of scatter dose to the fetus and the estimated fetal risk from that exposure in an illustrative case of a patient, 20 weeks pregnant, with a grade 3 anaplastic astrocytoma. A clinical decision was made to withhold radiotherapy, if possible, until after delivery. Sequential magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed no progression during the pregnancy. In the event, she was managed conservatively until the successful completion of her pregnancy. In case radiotherapy was required, an estimation of the fetal risk was made. Phantom measurements were undertaken to assess the likely fetal dose. Film badges were used to estimate the scattered radiation energy. Measurements were made on a Varian 600C at 6 MV and Asea Brown Boveri (ABB) accelerator at 8 and 16 MV. Doses were measured at 30, 45 and 60 cm from the isocentre; the fetus was assumed to lie at about 60 cm and not closer than 45 cm from the isocentre. Estimated doses to the position of the fetus were lowest with the 6 MV Varian accelerator. Using this machine without additional abdominal shielding, the estimated dose on the surface at 45 cm from the tumour volume was 2.2 cGy for a tumour dose of 54 Gy; using the ABB accelerator, the dose varied between 49-59 cGy. The energy of scattered radiation was in the range 208-688 keV, so that additional shielding would be practical to further reduce the fetal dose. The risk of cancer up to the age of 15 years attributable to radiation is 1 in 1700 per cGy, of which half will be fatal (i.e. 1 in 3300 per cGy). A dose of 2.2 cGy adds a risk of fatal cancer by the age 15 years of only 1 in 1500. Because the addition of shielding might halve the fetal dose, this risk should be reduced to 1 in 3000. For comparison, the overall UK risk of cancer up to the age 15 years is 1 in 650. In conclusion, careful choice of linear accelerator for the treatment of a pregnant woman and the use

Estimated Radiation Dosage on Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-03-01

This global map of Mars, based on data from NASA Mars Odyssey, shows the estimated radiation dosages from cosmic rays reaching the surface, a serious health concern for any future human exploration of the planet.

Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

Identifying the health risks from very low-dose sparsely ionizing radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dreyer, N.A.; Friedlander, E.

1982-06-01

The health risks from low-dose sparsely ionizing (low-LET) radiation have been the subject of continued debate. At present, quantitative estimates of risk are extremely uncertain due to the controversy surrounding both the dosimetry for A-bomb survivor data and the choice of mathematical models for extrapolating risk from high to low doses. Nevertheless, much can be learned about the nature of the health risks by reviewing the epidemiologic literature. We present a summary of diseases which have been associated with low-LET radiation (less than 1000 rad) in at least two independent studies, according to the mean cumulative organ dose at whichmore » the disease was observed. At organ doses of less than or equal to 50 rad, the only diseases that have been reported consistently are thyroid cancer, salivary gland tumors, and leukemia. The first two diseases were observed in association with x-ray epilation of the scalp for tinea capitis, a therapy which is no longer employed. On the other hand, leukemia has been observed repeatedly to occur at cumulative doses of greater than or equal to 30 rad low-LET radiation.« less

Identifying the health risks from very low-dose sparsely ionizing radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dreyer, N.A.; Friedlander, E.

1982-01-01

The health risks from low-dose sparsely ionizing (low-LET) radiation have been the subject of continued debate. At present, quantitative estimates of risk are extremely uncertain due to the controversy surrounding both the dosimetry for A-bomb survivor data and the choice of mathematical models for extrapolating risk from high to low doses. Nevertheless, much can be learned about the nature of the health risks by reviewing the epidemiologic literature. We present a summary of diseases which have been associated with low-LET radiation (<1000 rad) in at least two independent studies, according to the mean cumulative organ dose at which the diseasemore » was observed. At organ doses of less than or equal to50 rad, the only diseases that have been reported consistently are thyroid cancer, salivary gland tumors, and leukemia. The first two diseases were observed in association with x-ray epilation of the scalp for tinea capitis, a therapy which is no longer employed. On the other hand, leukemia has been observed repeatedly to occur at cumulative doses of greater than or equal to30 rad low-LET radiation.« less

Main Sources and Doses of Space Radiation during Mars Missions and Total Radiation Risk for Cosmonauts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrikas, Victor; Aleksandr, Shafirkin; Shurshakov, Vyacheslav

This work contains calculation data of generalized doses and dose equivalents in critical organs and tissues of cosmonauts produces by galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar cosmic rays (SCR) and the Earth’s radiation belts (ERB) that will impact crewmembers during a flight to Mars, while staying in the landing module and on the Martian surface, and during the return to Earth. Also calculated total radiation risk values during whole life of cosmonauts after the flight are presented. Radiation risk (RR) calculations are performed on the basis of a radiobiological model of radiation damage to living organisms, while taking into account reparation processes acting during continuous long-term exposure at various dose rates and under acute recurrent radiation impact. The calculations of RR are performed for crewmembers of various ages implementing a flight to Mars over 2 - 3 years in maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. The total carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic RR and possible life-span shortening are estimated on the basis of a model of the radiation death probability for mammals. This model takes into account the decrease in compensatory reserve of an organism as well as the increase in mortality rate and descent of the subsequent lifetime of the cosmonaut. The analyzed dose distributions in the shielding and body areas are applied to making model calculations of tissue equivalent spherical and anthropomorphic phantoms.

Bioavailable serum estradiol may alter radiation risk of postmenopausal breast cancer: a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Grant, Eric J; Cologne, John B; Sharp, Gerald B; Eguchi, Hidetaka; Stevens, Richard G; Izumi, Shizue; Kim, Young-Min; Berrington de González, Amy; Ohishi, Waka; Nakachi, Kei

2018-02-01

Ionizing radiation and high levels of circulating estradiol are known breast cancer carcinogens. We investigated the risk of first primary postmenopausal breast cancer in relation to the combined effects of whole-body ionizing radiation exposure and prediagnostic levels of postmenopausal sex hormones, particularly bioavailable estradiol (bE 2 ). A nested case-control study of 57 incident breast cancer cases matched with 110 controls among atomic bomb survivors. Joint effects of breast radiation dose and circulating levels of sex hormones were assessed using binary regression and path analysis. Radiation exposure, higher levels of bE 2 , testosterone and progesterone, and established reproductive risk factors were positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk. A test for mediation of the effect of radiation via bE 2 level suggested a small (14%) but significant mediation (p = 0.004). The estimated interaction between radiation and bE 2 was large but not significant (interaction = 3.86; p = 0.32). There is accumulating evidence that ionizing radiation not only damages DNA but also alters other organ systems. While caution is needed, some portion of the radiation risk of postmenopausal breast cancer appeared to be mediated through bE 2 levels, which may be evidence for cancer risks due to both direct and indirect effects of radiation.

Biological Bases of Space Radiation Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

In this session, Session JP4, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Hematopoiesis Dynamics in Irradiated Mammals, Mathematical Modeling; Estimating Health Risks in Space from Galactic Cosmic Rays; Failure of Heavy Ions to Affect Physiological Integrity of the Corneal Endothelial Monolayer; Application of an Unbiased Two-Gel CDNA Library Screening Method to Expression Monitoring of Genes in Irradiated Versus Control Cells; Detection of Radiation-Induced DNA Strand Breaks in Mammalian Cells By Enzymatic Post-Labeling; Evaluation of Bleomycin-Induced Chromosome Aberrations Under Microgravity Conditions in Human Lymphocytes, Using "Fish" Techniques; Technical Description of the Space Exposure Biology Assembly Seba on ISS; and Cytogenetic Research in Biological Dosimetry.

Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI): strategic research agenda for low dose radiation risk research.

PubMed

Kreuzer, M; Auvinen, A; Cardis, E; Durante, M; Harms-Ringdahl, M; Jourdain, J R; Madas, B G; Ottolenghi, A; Pazzaglia, S; Prise, K M; Quintens, R; Sabatier, L; Bouffler, S

2018-03-01

MELODI (Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative) is a European radiation protection research platform with focus on research on health risks after exposure to low-dose ionising radiation. It was founded in 2010 and currently includes 44 members from 18 countries. A major activity of MELODI is the continuous development of a long-term European Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) on low-dose risk for radiation protection. The SRA is intended to identify priorities for national and European radiation protection research programs as a basis for the preparation of competitive calls at the European level. Among those key priorities is the improvement of health risk estimates for exposures close to the dose limits for workers and to reference levels for the population in emergency situations. Another activity of MELODI is to ensure the availability of European key infrastructures for research activities, and the long-term maintenance of competences in radiation research via an integrated European approach for training and education. The MELODI SRA identifies three key research topics in low dose or low dose-rate radiation risk research: (1) dose and dose rate dependence of cancer risk, (2) radiation-induced non-cancer effects and (3) individual radiation sensitivity. The research required to improve the evidence base for each of the three key topics relates to three research lines: (1) research to improve understanding of the mechanisms contributing to radiogenic diseases, (2) epidemiological research to improve health risk evaluation of radiation exposure and (3) research to address the effects and risks associated with internal exposures, differing radiation qualities and inhomogeneous exposures. The full SRA and associated documents can be downloaded from the MELODI website ( http://www.melodi-online.eu/sra.html ).

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

1999-01-01

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

Thyroid Radiation Dose and Other Risk Factors of Thyroid Carcinoma Following Childhood Cancer.

PubMed

de Vathaire, Florent; Haddy, Nadia; Allodji, Rodrigue S; Hawkins, Mike; Guibout, Catherine; El-Fayech, Chiraz; Teinturier, Cécile; Oberlin, Odile; Pacquement, Hélène; Diop, Fara; Kalhouche, Amar; Benadjaoud, Mohamedamine; Winter, David; Jackson, Angela; Bezin Mai-Quynh, Giao; Benabdennebi, Aymen; Llanas, Damien; Veres, Cristina; Munzer, Martine; Nguyen, Tan Dat; Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Berchery, Delphine; Laprie, Anne; Deutsch, Eric; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri; Schlumberger, Martin; Diallo, Ibrahima; Rubino, Carole

2015-11-01

Thyroid carcinoma is a frequent complication of childhood cancer radiotherapy. The dose response to thyroid radiation dose is now well established, but the potential modifier effect of other factors requires additional investigation. This study aimed to investigate the role of potential modifiers of the dose response. We followed a cohort of 4338 5-year survivors of solid childhood cancer treated before 1986 over an average of 27 years. The dose received by the thyroid gland and some other anatomical sites during radiotherapy was estimated after reconstruction of the actual conditions in which irradiation was delivered. Fifty-five patients developed thyroid carcinoma. The risk of thyroid carcinoma increased with a radiation dose to the thyroid of up to two tenths of Gy, then leveled off for higher doses. When taking into account the thyroid radiation dose, a surgical or radiological splenectomy (>20 Gy to the spleen) increased thyroid cancer risk (relative risk [RR] = 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-4.0), high radiation doses (>5 Gy) to pituitary gland lowered this risk (RR = 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.6). Patients who received nitrosourea chemotherapy had a 6.6-fold (95% CI, 2.5-15.7) higher risk than those who did not. The excess RR per Gy of radiation to the thyroid was 4.7 (95% CI, 1.7-22.6). It was 7.6 (95% CI, 1.6-33.3) if body mass index at time of interview was equal or higher than 25 kg/m(2), and 4.1 (95% CI, 0.9-17.7) if not (P for interaction = .1). Predicting thyroid cancer risk following childhood cancer radiation therapy probably requires the assessment of more than just the radiation dose to the thyroid. Chemotherapy, splenectomy, radiation dose to pituitary gland, and obesity also play a role.

Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

2015-09-25

The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottledmore » mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.« less

A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk

2013-07-01

Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 yearsmore » (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.« less

Radiation risk from CT: implications for cancer screening.

PubMed

Albert, Jeffrey M

2013-07-01

The cancer risks associated with patient exposure to radiation from medical imaging have become a major topic of debate. The higher doses necessary for technologies such as CT and the increasing utilization of these technologies further increase medical radiation exposure to the population. Furthermore, the use of CT for population-based cancer screening continues to be explored for common malignancies such as lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Given the known carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation, this warrants evaluation of the balance between the benefit of early cancer detection and the risk of screening-induced malignancy. This report provides a brief review of the process of radiation carcino-genesis and the literature evaluating the risk of malignancy from CT, with a focus on the risks and benefits of CT for cancer screening. The available data suggest a small but real risk of radiation-induced malignancy from CT that could become significant at the population level with widespread use of CT-based screening. However, a growing body of literature suggests that the benefits of CT screening for lung cancer in high-risk patients and CT colonography for colorectal cancer may significantly outweigh the radiation risk. Future studies evaluating the benefits of CT screening should continue to consider potential radiation risks.

Stray radiation dose and second cancer risk for a pediatric patient receiving craniospinal irradiation with proton beams

PubMed Central

Taddei, Phillip J; Mirkovic, Dragan; Fontenot, Jonas D; Giebeler, Annelise; Zheng, Yuanshui; Kornguth, David; Mohan, Radhe; Newhauser, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Proton beam radiotherapy unavoidably exposes healthy tissue to stray radiation emanating from the treatment unit and secondary radiation produced within the patient. These exposures provide no known benefit and may increase a patient's risk of developing a radiogenic cancer. The aims of this study were to calculate doses to major organs and tissues and to estimate second cancer risk from stray radiation following craniospinal irradiation (CSI) with proton therapy. This was accomplished using detailed Monte Carlo simulations of a passive-scattering proton treatment unit and a voxelized phantom to represent the patient. Equivalent doses, effective dose and corresponding risk for developing a fatal second cancer were calculated for a 10-year-old boy who received proton therapy. The proton treatment comprised CSI at 30.6 Gy plus a boost of 23.4 Gy to the clinical target volume. The predicted effective dose from stray radiation was 418 mSv, of which 344 mSv was from neutrons originating outside the patient; the remaining 74 mSv was caused by neutrons originating within the patient. This effective dose corresponds to an attributable lifetime risk of a fatal second cancer of 3.4%. The equivalent doses that predominated the effective dose from stray radiation were in the lungs, stomach and colon. These results establish a baseline estimate of the stray radiation dose and corresponding risk for a pediatric patient undergoing proton CSI and support the suitability of passively-scattered proton beams for the treatment of central nervous system tumors in pediatric patients. PMID:19305045

Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huff, Janice L.

2014-01-01

The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

EPA Science Inventory

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

Radiobiological foundation of crew radiation risk for mars mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafirkin, A.

The results of a comprehensive clinico-physiological study of 250 dogs after 22 hours per day chronic exposure to gamma -radiation throughout their life are presented. The exposure duration was 3 and 6 years. The dose rate varied between 25 and 150 cSv/year to simulate galactic cosmic ray dose of crew members during mars mission. Several groups of the dogs received an additional acute dose of 10 and 50 cSv during a day three times per year to simulate stochastic irradiation caused by solar cosmic rays. Data on the status of regulatory systems of organism, exchange processes dynamics, organism reaction on additional functional loads are also presented. Organism reaction and dynamics of kinetic relations are considered in detail for most radiosensitive and regenerating tissue systems of the organism, namely, bloodforming system and spermatogenic epithelium. The results on life span reduction of the dogs and dog race characteristics after the radiation exposure are discussed. Based on the results obtained in this study and in model experiments realized with big amount of small laboratory animals that were exposed to a wide dose range, using other published data, mathematical models were developed, e. g. a model of radiation damage forming as dependent on time with taking into account recovery processes, and a model of radiation mortality rate of mammals. Based on these models and analysis of radiation environment behind various shielding on the route to Mars, crew radiation risk was calculated for space missions of various durations. Total radiation risk values for cosmonaut lifetime after the missions were also estimated together with expected life span reduction.

Radiobiological foundation of crew radiation risk for Mars mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandr, Shafirkin; Grigoriev, Yurj

The results of a comprehensive clinico-physiological study of 250 dogs after 22 hours per day chronic exposure to gamma-radiation throughout their life are presented. The exposure duration was 3 and 6 years. The dose rate varied between 25 and 150 cSv/year to simulate galactic cosmic ray dose of crew members during mars mission. Several groups of the dogs received an additional acute dose of 10 and 50 cSv during a day three times per year to simulate stochastic irradiation caused by solar cosmic rays. Data on the status of regulatory systems of organism, exchange processes dynamics, organism reaction on additional functional loads are also presented. Organism reaction and dynamics of kinetic relations are considered in detail for most radiosensitive and regenerating tissue systems of the organism, namely, bloodforming system and spermatogenic epithelium. The results on life span reduction of the dogs and dog race characteristics after the radiation exposure are discussed. Based on the results obtained in this study and in model experiments realized with big amount of small laboratory animals that were exposed to a wide dose range, using other published data, mathematical models were developed, e. g. a model of radiation damage forming as dependent on time with taking into account recovery processes, and a model of radiation mortality rate of mammals. Based on these models and analysis of radiation environment behind various shielding on the route to Mars, crew radiation risk was calculated for space missions of various durations. Total radiation risk values for cosmonaut lifetime after the missions were also estimated together with expected life span reduction.

Temporal variation of optimal UV exposure time over Korea: risks and benefits of surface UV radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J. H.

2015-12-01

Solar UV radiation in a wavelength range between 280 to 400 nm has both positive and negative influences on human body. Surface UV radiation is the main natural source of vitamin D, providing the promotion of bone and musculoskeletal health and reducing the risk of a number of cancers and other medical conditions. However, overexposure to surface UV radiation is significantly related with the majority of skin cancer, in addition other negative health effects such as sunburn, skin aging, and some forms of eye cataracts. Therefore, it is important to estimate the optimal UV exposure time, representing a balance between reducing negative health effects and maximizing sufficient vitamin D production. Previous studies calculated erythemal UV and vitamin-D UV from the measured and modelled spectral irradiances, respectively, by weighting CIE Erythema and Vitamin D3 generation functions (Kazantzidis et al., 2009; Fioletov et al., 2010). In particular, McKenzie et al. (2009) suggested the algorithm to estimate vitamin-D production UV from erythemal UV (or UV index) and determined the optimum conditions of UV exposure based on skin type Ⅱ according to the Fitzpatrick (1988). Recently, there are various demands for risks and benefits of surface UV radiation on public health over Korea, thus it is necessary to estimate optimal UV exposure time suitable to skin type of East Asians. This study examined the relationship between erythemally weighted UV (UVEry) and vitamin D weighted UV (UVVitD) over Korea during 2004-2012. The temporal variations of the ratio (UVVitD/UVEry) were also analyzed and the ratio as a function of UV index was applied in estimating the optimal UV exposure time. In summer with high surface UV radiation, short exposure time leaded to sufficient vitamin D and erythema and vice versa in winter. Thus, the balancing time in winter was enough to maximize UV benefits and minimize UV risks.

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2016-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are concerns for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks may include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks may include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and 9 protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Gregory A.; Simonsen, Lisa; Huff, Janice L.

2015-01-01

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a documented concern for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Non-radiation risk factors for leukemia: A case-control study among chornobyl cleanup workers in Ukraine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gudzenko, N., E-mail: gudznat@gmail.com; Hatch, M., E-mail: hatchm@mail.nih.gov; Bazyka, D., E-mail: Bazyka@yahoo.com

Background: Occupational and environmental exposure to chemicals such as benzene has been linked to increased risk of leukemia. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption have also been found to affect leukemia risk. Previous analyses in a large cohort of Chornobyl clean-up workers in Ukraine found significant radiation-related increased risk for all leukemia types. We investigated the potential for additional effects of occupational and lifestyle factors on leukemia risk in this radiation-exposed cohort. Methods: In a case-control study of chronic lymphocytic and other leukemias among Chornobyl cleanup workers, we collected data on a range of non-radiation exposures. We evaluated these and othermore » potential risk factors in analyses adjusting for estimated bone marrow radiation dose. We calculated Odds Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals in relation to lifestyle factors and occupational hazards. Results: After adjusting for radiation, we found no clear association of leukemia risk with smoking or alcohol but identified a two-fold elevated risk for non-CLL leukemia with occupational exposure to petroleum (OR=2.28; 95% Confidence Interval 1.13, 6.79). Risks were particularly high for myeloid leukemias. No associations with risk factors other than radiation were found for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Conclusions: These data – the first from a working population in Ukraine – add to evidence from several previous reports of excess leukemia morbidity in groups exposed environmentally or occupationally to petroleum or its products. - Highlights: • A unique population – a cohort of 110,645 Chernobyl clean-up workers from Ukraine. • Followed 1986–2006 for leukemia, interviewed about non-radiation risk factors. • Petroleum exposure increased risk for non-CLL leukemias, particularly CML. • No risk factor other than radiation was found for CLL.« less

Aspects of operational radiation protection during dismantling of nuclear facilities relevant for the estimation of internal doses.

PubMed

Labarta, T

2007-01-01

Operational radiation protection of workers during the dismantling of nuclear facilities is based on the same radiation protection principles as that applied in its exploitation period with the objective of ensuring proper implementation of the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable (ALARA) principle. These principles are: prior determination of the nature and magnitude of radiological risk; classification of workplaces and workers depending on the risks; implementation of control measures; monitoring of zones and working conditions, including, if necessary, individual monitoring. From the experiences and the lessons learned during the dismantling processes carried out in Spain, several important aspects in the practical implementation of these principles that directly influence and ensure an adequate prevention of exposures and the estimation of internal doses are pointed out, with special emphasis on the estimation of internal doses due to transuranic intakes.

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, L. D.

2016-01-01

Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edmonds, L. D.

2016-01-01

Because advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.

Non-Radiation Risk Factors for Leukemia: A case-control study among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers in Ukraine

PubMed Central

Gudzenko, Nataliya; Hatch, Maureen; Bazyka, Dimitry; Dyagil, Irina; Reiss, Robert F; Brenner, Alina; Chumak, Vadim; Babkina, Natalie; Zablotska, Lydia B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2015-01-01

Background Occupational and environmental exposure to chemicals such as benzene has been linked to increased risk of leukemia. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption have also been found to affect leukemia risk. Previous analyses in a large cohort of Chornobyl clean-up workers in Ukraine found significant radiation-related increased risk for all leukemia types. We investigated the potential for additional effects of occupational and lifestyle factors on leukemia risk in this radiation-exposed cohort. Methods In a case-control study of chronic lymphocytic and other leukemias among Chornobyl cleanup workers, we collected data on a range of non-radiation exposures. We evaluated these other potential risk factors in analyses adjusting for estimated bone marrow radiation dose. We calculated Odds Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals in relation to lifestyle factors and occupational hazards. Results After adjusting for radiation, we found no clear association of leukemia risk with smoking or alcohol but identified a two-fold elevated risk for non-CLL leukemia with occupational exposure to petroleum (OR=2.28; 95% Confidence Interval 1.13, 6.79). Risks were particularly high for myeloid leukemias. No associations with risk factors other than radiation were found for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Conclusions These data – the first from a working population in Ukraine – add to evidence from several previous reports of excess leukemia morbidity in groups exposed environmentally or occupationally to petroleum or its products. PMID:26117815

Non-radiation risk factors for leukemia: A case-control study among chornobyl cleanup workers in Ukraine.

PubMed

Gudzenko, N; Hatch, M; Bazyka, D; Dyagil, I; Reiss, R F; Brenner, A; Chumak, V; Babkina, N; Zablotska, L B; Mabuchi, K

2015-10-01

Occupational and environmental exposure to chemicals such as benzene has been linked to increased risk of leukemia. Cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption have also been found to affect leukemia risk. Previous analyses in a large cohort of Chornobyl clean-up workers in Ukraine found significant radiation-related increased risk for all leukemia types. We investigated the potential for additional effects of occupational and lifestyle factors on leukemia risk in this radiation-exposed cohort. In a case-control study of chronic lymphocytic and other leukemias among Chornobyl cleanup workers, we collected data on a range of non-radiation exposures. We evaluated these and other potential risk factors in analyses adjusting for estimated bone marrow radiation dose. We calculated Odds Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals in relation to lifestyle factors and occupational hazards. After adjusting for radiation, we found no clear association of leukemia risk with smoking or alcohol but identified a two-fold elevated risk for non-CLL leukemia with occupational exposure to petroleum (OR=2.28; 95% Confidence Interval 1.13, 6.79). Risks were particularly high for myeloid leukemias. No associations with risk factors other than radiation were found for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. These data - the first from a working population in Ukraine - add to evidence from several previous reports of excess leukemia morbidity in groups exposed environmentally or occupationally to petroleum or its products. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in Projecting Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F.; Schimmerling, W.; Peterson, L.; Wilson, J.; Saganti, P.; Dicello, J.

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, CNS risks, and non - cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low -Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of the primary factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objectives, i.e., number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis

2003-01-01

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order

Calculating Risk: Radiation and Chernobyl.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gale, Robert Peter

1987-01-01

Considers who is at risk in a disaster such as Chernobyl. Assesses the difficulty in translating information regarding radiation to the public and in determining the acceptability of technological risks. (NKA)

Exposure to UV radiation and risk of Hodgkin lymphoma: a pooled analysis

PubMed Central

Glaser, Sally L.; Schupp, Clayton W.; Ekström Smedby, Karin; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Kane, Eleanor; Melbye, Mads; Forétova, Lenka; Maynadié, Marc; Staines, Anthony; Becker, Nikolaus; Nieters, Alexandra; Brennan, Paul; Boffetta, Paolo; Cocco, Pierluigi; Glimelius, Ingrid; Clavel, Jacqueline; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Chang, Ellen T.

2013-01-01

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure has been inversely associated with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) risk, but only inconsistently, only in a few studies, and without attention to HL heterogeneity. We conducted a pooled analysis of HL risk focusing on type and timing of UVR exposure and on disease subtypes by age, histology, and tumor-cell Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. Four case-control studies contributed 1320 HL cases and 6381 controls. We estimated lifetime, adulthood, and childhood UVR exposure and history of sunburn and sunlamp use. We used 2-stage estimation with mixed-effects models and weighted pooled effect estimates by inverse marginal variances. We observed statistically significant inverse associations with HL risk for UVR exposures during childhood and adulthood, sunburn history, and sunlamp use, but we found no significant dose-response relationships. Risks were significant only for EBV-positive HL (pooled odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.35 to 0.91 for the highest overall UVR exposure category), with a significant linear trend for overall exposure (P = .03). Pooled relative risk estimates were not heterogeneous across studies. Increased UVR exposure may protect against HL, particularly EBV-positive HL. Plausible mechanisms involving UVR induction of regulatory T cells or the cellular DNA damage response suggest opportunities for new prevention targets. PMID:24016459

Space radiation risks to the central nervous system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Alp, Murat; Sulzman, Frank M.; Wang, Minli

2014-07-01

Central nervous system (CNS) risks which include during space missions and lifetime risks due to space radiation exposure are of concern for long-term exploration missions to Mars or other destinations. Possible CNS risks during a mission are altered cognitive function, including detriments in short-term memory, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, which may affect performance and human health. The late CNS risks are possible neurological disorders such as premature aging, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other dementia. Radiation safety requirements are intended to prevent all clinically significant acute risks. However the definition of clinically significant CNS risks and their dependences on dose, dose-rate and radiation quality is poorly understood at this time. For late CNS effects such as increased risk of AD, the occurrence of the disease is fatal with mean time from diagnosis of early stage AD to death about 8 years. Therefore if AD risk or other late CNS risks from space radiation occur at mission relevant doses, they would naturally be included in the overall acceptable risk of exposure induced death (REID) probability for space missions. Important progress has been made in understanding CNS risks due to space radiation exposure, however in general the doses used in experimental studies have been much higher than the annual galactic cosmic ray (GCR) dose (∼0.1 Gy/y at solar maximum and ∼0.2 Gy/y at solar minimum with less than 50% from HZE particles). In this report we summarize recent space radiobiology studies of CNS effects from particle accelerators simulating space radiation using experimental models, and make a critical assessment of their relevance relative to doses and dose-rates to be incurred on a Mars mission. Prospects for understanding dose, dose-rate and radiation quality dependencies of CNS effects and extrapolation to human risk assessments are described.

A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

Joint nonparametric correction estimator for excess relative risk regression in survival analysis with exposure measurement error

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Cullings, Harry; Song, Xiao; Kopecky, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Observational epidemiological studies often confront the problem of estimating exposure-disease relationships when the exposure is not measured exactly. In the paper, we investigate exposure measurement error in excess relative risk regression, which is a widely used model in radiation exposure effect research. In the study cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies a generalized version of the classical additive measurement error model, but it may or may not have repeated measurements. In addition, an instrumental variable is available for individuals in a subset of the whole cohort. We develop a nonparametric correction (NPC) estimator using data from the subcohort, and further propose a joint nonparametric correction (JNPC) estimator using all observed data to adjust for exposure measurement error. An optimal linear combination estimator of JNPC and NPC is further developed. The proposed estimators are nonparametric, which are consistent without imposing a covariate or error distribution, and are robust to heteroscedastic errors. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the developed methods to data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, in which chromosome aberration is used to adjust for the effects of radiation dose measurement error on the estimation of radiation dose responses. PMID:29354018

Risk of myelodysplastic syndromes in people exposed to ionizing radiation: a retrospective cohort study of Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

Iwanaga, Masako; Hsu, Wan-Ling; Soda, Midori; Takasaki, Yumi; Tawara, Masayuki; Joh, Tatsuro; Amenomori, Tatsuhiko; Yamamura, Masaomi; Yoshida, Yoshiharu; Koba, Takashi; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Matsuo, Tatsuki; Preston, Dale L; Suyama, Akihiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Tomonaga, Masao

2011-02-01

The risk of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) has not been fully investigated among people exposed to ionizing radiation. We investigate MDS risk and radiation dose-response in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using two databases of Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors: 64,026 people with known exposure distance in the database of Nagasaki University Atomic-Bomb Disease Institute (ABDI) and 22,245 people with estimated radiation dose in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Life Span Study (LSS). Patients with MDS diagnosed from 1985 to 2004 were identified by record linkage between the cohorts and the Nagasaki Prefecture Cancer Registry. Cox and Poisson regression models were used to estimate relationships between exposure distance or dose and MDS risk. There were 151 patients with MDS in the ABDI cohort and 47 patients with MDS in the LSS cohort. MDS rate increased inversely with exposure distance, with an excess relative risk (ERR) decay per km of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.4 to 3.0; P < .001) for ABDI. MDS risk also showed a significant linear response to exposure dose level (P < .001) with an ERR per Gy of 4.3 (95% CI, 1.6 to 9.5; P < .001). After adjustment for sex, attained age, and birth year, the MDS risk was significantly greater in those exposed when young. A significant linear radiation dose-response for MDS exists in atomic bomb survivors 40 to 60 years after radiation exposure. Clinicians should perform careful long-term follow-up of irradiated people to detect MDS as early as possible.

Radiation in medicine: Origins, risks and aspirations

PubMed Central

Donya, Mohamed; Radford, Mark; ElGuindy, Ahmed; Firmin, David; Yacoub, Magdi H.

2014-01-01

The use of radiation in medicine is now pervasive and routine. From their crude beginnings 100 years ago, diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy have all evolved into advanced techniques, and are regarded as essential tools across all branches and specialties of medicine. The inherent properties of ionizing radiation provide many benefits, but can also cause potential harm. Its use within medical practice thus involves an informed judgment regarding the risk/benefit ratio. This judgment requires not only medical knowledge, but also an understanding of radiation itself. This work provides a global perspective on radiation risks, exposure and mitigation strategies. PMID:25780797

Radiation in medicine: Origins, risks and aspirations.

PubMed

Donya, Mohamed; Radford, Mark; ElGuindy, Ahmed; Firmin, David; Yacoub, Magdi H

2014-01-01

The use of radiation in medicine is now pervasive and routine. From their crude beginnings 100 years ago, diagnostic radiology, nuclear medicine and radiation therapy have all evolved into advanced techniques, and are regarded as essential tools across all branches and specialties of medicine. The inherent properties of ionizing radiation provide many benefits, but can also cause potential harm. Its use within medical practice thus involves an informed judgment regarding the risk/benefit ratio. This judgment requires not only medical knowledge, but also an understanding of radiation itself. This work provides a global perspective on radiation risks, exposure and mitigation strategies.

Effects of IL-10 haplotype and atomic bomb radiation exposure on gastric cancer risk.

PubMed

Hayashi, Tomonori; Ito, Reiko; Cologne, John; Maki, Mayumi; Morishita, Yukari; Nagamura, Hiroko; Sasaki, Keiko; Hayashi, Ikue; Imai, Kazue; Yoshida, Kengo; Kajimura, Junko; Kyoizumi, Seishi; Kusunoki, Yoichiro; Ohishi, Waka; Fujiwara, Saeko; Akahoshi, Masazumi; Nakachi, Kei

2013-07-01

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the cancers that reveal increased risk of mortality and incidence in atomic bomb survivors. The incidence of gastric cancer in the Life Span Study cohort of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) increased with radiation dose (gender-averaged excess relative risk per Gy = 0.28) and remains high more than 65 years after exposure. To assess a possible role of gene-environment interaction, we examined the dose response for gastric cancer incidence based on immunosuppression-related IL-10 genotype, in a cohort study with 200 cancer cases (93 intestinal, 96 diffuse and 11 other types) among 4,690 atomic bomb survivors participating in an immunological substudy. Using a single haplotype block composed of four haplotype-tagging SNPs (comprising the major haplotype allele IL-10-ATTA and the minor haplotype allele IL-10-GGCG, which are categorized by IL-10 polymorphisms at -819A>G and -592T>G, +1177T>C and +1589A>G), multiplicative and additive models for joint effects of radiation and this IL-10 haplotyping were examined. The IL-10 minor haplotype allele(s) was a risk factor for intestinal type gastric cancer but not for diffuse type gastric cancer. Radiation was not associated with intestinal type gastric cancer. In diffuse type gastric cancer, the haplotype-specific excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation was statistically significant only in the major homozygote category of IL-10 (ERR = 0.46/Gy, P = 0.037), whereas estimated ERR for radiation with the minor IL-10 homozygotes was close to 0 and nonsignificant. Thus, the minor IL-10 haplotype might act to reduce the radiation related risk of diffuse-type gastric cancer. The results suggest that this IL-10 haplotyping might be involved in development of radiation-associated gastric cancer of the diffuse type, and that IL-10 haplotypes may explain individual differences in the radiation-related risk of gastric cancer. © 2013 by Radiation Research Society

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF OUT-OF-FIELD ORGAN DOSES AND CANCER RISK IN TANZANIA FOR RADIATION THERAPY OF UNILATERAL RETINOBLASTOMA USING A 60Co UNIT.

PubMed

Suleiman, Suleiman Ameir; Qi, Yaping; Pi, Yifei; George Xu, X

2018-05-01

The use of 60Co teletherapy unit for the treatment of unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients is a very common procedure in many developing countries including Tanzania. The aim of this study was to estimate organ-specific absorbed doses from an external beam radiation therapy 60Co unit for unilateral Rb and to assess the risks of the patients developing a secondary primary cancer. The absorbed dose estimations were based on a Monte Carlo method and a set of age-dependent computational male phantoms. The estimated doses were used to calculate the secondary cancer risks in out-of-field organs using the Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation VII risk models. The survival information and baseline cancer risks were based on relevant statistics for the Tanzanian population. The resulting out-of-field organ doses data showed that organs which are close to the target volume, such as the brain, salivary glands and thyroid glands, received the highest absorbed dose from scattered photons during the treatment of Rb. It was also found that the resulting photons dose to specific organs depends on the patient's age. Younger patients are more sensitive to radiation and also received higher dose contributions from the treatment head due to a larger part of the body exposed to the photon radiation. In all sites considered, the overall risks associated with radiation-induced secondary cancer were relatively lower than the baseline risks. Thus, the results in this article can help to provide good estimations of radiation-induced secondary cancer after radiation treatment of unilateral Rb using 60Co teletherapy unit in Tanzania and other developing countries.

Radiation epidemiology: old and new challenges.

PubMed Central

Shore, R E

1989-01-01

Over the last 40 years the amount of knowledge about human radiation effects has increased dramatically. During that interval, radiation epidemiologists have documented a number of additional types of radiation-induced cancer and have established rough estimates of the magnitude of cancer risks. Nevertheless, we currently have inadequate knowledge about a number of factors that help define the magnitude of radiation risks. These include questions of estimating risk over the lifetime, shapes of dose-effect curves, magnitude of risks at low doses, potentiation between radiation and other agents, and the nature and role of host susceptibility factors. Data from various studies are used to illustrate these questions. PMID:2759057

Radiation as a Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Moulder, John E.; Hopewell, John W.

2011-01-01

Abstract Humans are continually exposed to ionizing radiation from terrestrial sources. The two major contributors to radiation exposure of the U.S. population are ubiquitous background radiation and medical exposure of patients. From the early 1980s to 2006, the average dose per individual in the United States for all sources of radiation increased by a factor of 1.7–6.2 mSv, with this increase due to the growth of medical imaging procedures. Radiation can place individuals at an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Excess risk of cardiovascular disease occurs a long time after exposure to lower doses of radiation as demonstrated in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. This review examines sources of radiation (atomic bombs, radiation accidents, radiological terrorism, cancer treatment, space exploration, radiosurgery for cardiac arrhythmia, and computed tomography) and the risk for developing cardiovascular disease. The evidence presented suggests an association between cardiovascular disease and exposure to low-to-moderate levels of radiation, as well as the well-known association at high doses. Studies are needed to define the extent that diagnostic and therapeutic radiation results in increased risk factors for cardiovascular disease, to understand the mechanisms involved, and to develop strategies to mitigate or treat radiation-induced cardiovascular disease. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 15, 1945–1956. PMID:21091078

Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stick, Line B., E-mail: line.bjerregaard.stick@regionh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Yu, Jen

Purpose: The study aims to perform joint estimation of the risk of recurrence caused by inadequate radiation dose coverage of lymph node targets and the risk of cardiac toxicity caused by radiation exposure to the heart. Delivered photon plans are compared with realistic proton plans, thereby providing evidence-based estimates of the heterogeneity of treatment effects in consecutive cases for the 2 radiation treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Forty-one patients referred for postlumpectomy comprehensive nodal photon irradiation for left-sided breast cancer were included. Comparative proton plans were optimized by a spot scanning technique with single-field optimization from 2 en face beams.more » Cardiotoxicity risk was estimated with the model of Darby et al, and risk of recurrence following a compromise of lymph node coverage was estimated by a linear dose-response model fitted to the recurrence data from the recently published EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) 22922/10925 and NCIC-CTG (National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group) MA.20 randomized controlled trials. Results: Excess absolute risk of cardiac morbidity was small with photon therapy at an attained age of 80 years, with median values of 1.0% (range, 0.2%-2.9%) and 0.5% (range, 0.03%-1.0%) with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively, but even lower with proton therapy (0.13% [range, 0.02%-0.5%] and 0.06% [range, 0.004%-0.3%], respectively). The median estimated excess absolute risk of breast cancer recurrence after 10 years was 0.10% (range, 0.0%-0.9%) with photons and 0.02% (range, 0.0%-0.07%) with protons. The association between age of the patient and benefit from proton therapy was weak, almost non-existing (Spearman rank correlations of −0.15 and −0.30 with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively). Conclusions: Modern photon therapy yields limited risk of cardiac toxicity in most patients, but proton therapy can reduce

Comparative study of the calculated risk of radiation-induced cancer after photon- and proton-beam based radiosurgery of liver metastases.

PubMed

Mondlane, Gracinda; Gubanski, Michael; Lind, Pehr A; Ureba, Ana; Siegbahn, Albert

2017-10-01

The potential of proton therapy to improve the sparing of the healthy tissue has been demonstrated in several studies. However, even small doses delivered to the organs at risk (OAR) may induce long-term detriments after radiotherapy. In this study, we investigated the possibility to reduce the risk of radiation-induced secondary cancers with intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT), when used for radiosurgery of liver metastases. Ten patients, previously treated for liver metastases with photon-beam based stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) were retrospectively planned for radiosurgery with IMPT. A treatment plan comparison was then performed in terms of calculated risk of radiation-induced secondary cancer. The risks were estimated using two distinct models (Dasu et al., 2005; Schneider et al., 2005, 2009). The plans were compared pairwise with a two-sided Wilcoxon signed-rank test with a significance level of 0.05. Reduced risks for induction of fatal and other types of cancers were estimated for the IMPT plans (p<0.05) with the Dasu et al. Using the Schneider et al. model, lower risks for carcinoma-induction with IMPT were estimated for the skin, lungs, healthy part of the liver, esophagus and the remaining part of the body (p<0.05). The risk of observing sarcomas in the bone was also reduced with IMPT (p<0.05). The findings of this study indicate that the risks of radiation-induced secondary cancers after radiosurgery of liver metastases may be reduced, if IMPT is used instead of photon-beam based SBRT. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Imaging strategies to reduce the risk of radiation in CT studies, including selective substitution with MRI.

PubMed

Semelka, Richard C; Armao, Diane M; Elias, Jorge; Huda, Walter

2007-05-01

"When one admits that nothing is certain one must, I think, also admit that some things are much more nearly certain than others." Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) Computed tomography (CT) is one of the largest contributors to man-made radiation doses in medical populations. CT currently accounts for over 60 million examinations in the United States, and its use continues to grow rapidly. The principal concern regarding radiation exposure is that the subject may develop malignancies. For this systematic review we searched journal publications in MEDLINE (1966-2006) using the terms "CT," "ionizing radiation," "cancer risks," "MRI," and "patient safety." We also searched major reports issued from governmental U.S. and world health-related agencies. Many studies have shown that organ doses associated with routine diagnostic CT scans are similar to the low-dose range of radiation received by atomic-bomb survivors. The FDA estimates that a CT examination with an effective dose of 10 mSv may be associated with an increased chance of developing fatal cancer for approximately one patient in 2000, whereas the BEIR VII lifetime risk model predicts that with the same low-dose radiation, approximately one individual in 1000 will develop cancer. There are uncertainties in the current radiation risk estimates, especially at the lower dose levels encountered in CT. To address what should be done to ensure patient safety, in this review we discuss the "as low as reasonably achievable" (ALARA) principle, and the use of MRI as an alternative to CT. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Patient-specific Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk for Pediatric Chest CT

PubMed Central

Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0–16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDIvol) or dose–length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Results: Organ dose normalized by tube current–time product or CTDIvol decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current–time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). Conclusion: The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. © RSNA, 2011 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1 PMID:21467251

Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest CT.

PubMed

Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M; Colsher, James G; Frush, Donald P

2011-06-01

To estimate patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk for pediatric chest computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate factors affecting dose and risk, including patient size, patient age, and scanning parameters. The institutional review board approved this study and waived informed consent. This study was HIPAA compliant. The study included 30 patients (0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created from clinical CT data. A validated Monte Carlo program was used to estimate organ dose from eight chest protocols, representing clinically relevant combinations of bow tie filter, collimation, pitch, and tube potential. Organ dose was used to calculate effective dose and risk index (an index of total cancer incidence risk). The dose and risk estimates before and after normalization by volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) or dose-length product (DLP) were correlated with patient size and age. The effect of each scanning parameter was studied. Organ dose normalized by tube current-time product or CTDI(vol) decreased exponentially with increasing average chest diameter. Effective dose normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with increasing chest diameter. Chest diameter was a stronger predictor of dose than weight and total scan length. Risk index normalized by tube current-time product or DLP decreased exponentially with both chest diameter and age. When normalized by DLP, effective dose and risk index were independent of collimation, pitch, and tube potential (<10% variation). The correlations of dose and risk with patient size and age can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk. They can further guide the design and optimization of pediatric chest CT protocols. http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11101900/-/DC1. RSNA, 2011

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carnell, Lisa; Blattnig, Steve; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice; Kim, Myung-Hee; Norman, Ryan; Patel, Zarana; Simonsen, Lisa; Wu, Honglu

2016-01-01

Crew health and performance may be impacted by a major solar particle event (SPE), multiple SPEs, or the cumulative effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and SPEs. Beyond low-Earth orbit, the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere is no longer available, such that increased shielding and protective mechanisms are necessary in order to prevent acute radiation sickness and impacts to mission success or crew survival. While operational monitoring and shielding are expected to minimize radiation exposures, there are EVA scenarios outside of low-Earth orbit where the risk of prodromal effects, including nausea, vomiting, anorexia, and fatigue, as well as skin injury and depletion of the blood-forming organs (BFO), may occur. There is a reasonable concern that a compromised immune system due to high skin doses from a SPE or due to synergistic space flight factors (e.g., microgravity) may lead to increased risk to the BFO. The primary data available at present are derived from analyses of medical patients and persons accidentally exposed to acute, high doses of low-linear energy transfer (LET) (or terrestrial) radiation. Data more specific to the space flight environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of increase of this risk and to develop appropriate protection strategies. In particular, information addressing the distinct differences between solar proton exposures and terrestrial exposure scenarios, including radiation quality, dose-rate effects, and non-uniform dose distributions, is required for accurate risk estimation.

Estimating radiation dose to organs of patients undergoing conventional and novel multidetector CT exams using Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, Erin

Advances in Computed Tomography (CT) technology have led to an increase in the modality's diagnostic capabilities and therefore its utilization, which has in turn led to an increase in radiation exposure to the patient population. As a result, CT imaging currently constitutes approximately half of the collective exposure to ionizing radiation from medical procedures. In order to understand the radiation risk, it is necessary to estimate the radiation doses absorbed by patients undergoing CT imaging. The most widely accepted risk models are based on radiosensitive organ dose as opposed to whole body dose. In this research, radiosensitive organ dose was estimated using Monte Carlo based simulations incorporating detailed multidetector CT (MDCT) scanner models, specific scan protocols, and using patient models based on accurate patient anatomy and representing a range of patient sizes. Organ dose estimates were estimated for clinical MDCT exam protocols which pose a specific concern for radiosensitive organs or regions. These dose estimates include estimation of fetal dose for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen pelvis CT exams or undergoing exams to diagnose pulmonary embolism and venous thromboembolism. Breast and lung dose were estimated for patients undergoing coronary CTA imaging, conventional fixed tube current chest CT, and conventional tube current modulated (TCM) chest CT exams. The correlation of organ dose with patient size was quantified for pregnant patients undergoing abdomen/pelvis exams and for all breast and lung dose estimates presented. Novel dose reduction techniques were developed that incorporate organ location and are specifically designed to reduce close to radiosensitive organs during CT acquisition. A generalizable model was created for simulating conventional and novel attenuation-based TCM algorithms which can be used in simulations estimating organ dose for any patient model. The generalizable model is a significant contribution of this

Appropriate Use of Effective Dose in Radiation Protection and Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Fisher, Darrell R; Fahey, Frederic H

2017-08-01

tissue reactions. The weighting factors incorporate substantial uncertainties, and linearity of the dose-response function at low dose is uncertain and highly disputed. Since effective dose is not predictive of future cancer incidence, it follows that effective dose should never be used to estimate future cancer risk from specific sources of radiation exposure. Instead, individual assessments of potential detriment should only be based on organ or tissue radiation absorbed dose, together with best scientific understanding of the corresponding dose-response relationships.

Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hateni N.; Kim, Myung-Hee

2011-01-01

The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission

Estimation of Solar Radiation on Building Roofs in Mountainous Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agugiaro, G.; Remondino, F.; Stevanato, G.; De Filippi, R.; Furlanello, C.

2011-04-01

The aim of this study is estimating solar radiation on building roofs in complex mountain landscape areas. A multi-scale solar radiation estimation methodology is proposed that combines 3D data ranging from regional scale to the architectural one. Both the terrain and the nearby building shadowing effects are considered. The approach is modular and several alternative roof models, obtained by surveying and modelling techniques at varying level of detail, can be embedded in a DTM, e.g. that of an Alpine valley surrounded by mountains. The solar radiation maps obtained from raster models at different resolutions are compared and evaluated in order to obtain information regarding the benefits and disadvantages tied to each roof modelling approach. The solar radiation estimation is performed within the open-source GRASS GIS environment using r.sun and its ancillary modules.

What becomes of nuclear risk assessment in light of radiation hormesis?

PubMed

Cuttler, Jerry M

2006-08-25

A nuclear probabilistic risk or safety assessment (PRA or PSA) is a scientific calculation that uses assumptions and models to determine the likelihood of plant or fuel repository failures and the corresponding releases of radioactivity. Estimated radiation doses to the surrounding population are linked inappropriately to risks of cancer death and congenital malformations. Even though PRAs use very pessimistic assumptions, they demonstrate that nuclear power plants and fuel repositories are very safe compared with the health risks of other generating options or other risks that people readily accept. Because of the frightening negative images and the exaggerated safety and health concerns that are communicated, many people judge nuclear risks to be unacceptable and do not favour nuclear plants. Large-scale tests and experience with nuclear accidents demonstrate that even severe accidents expose the public to only low doses of radiation, and a century of research has demonstrated that such exposures are beneficial to health. A scientific basis for this phenomenon now exists. PRAs are valuable tools for improving plant designs, but if nuclear power is to play a significant role in meeting future energy needs, we must communicate its many real benefits and dispel the negative images formed by unscientific extrapolations of harmful effects at high doses.

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks. Part 1; Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2005-01-01

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Ionising radiation and risk of death from leukaemia and lymphoma in radiation-monitored workers (INWORKS): an international cohort study.

PubMed

Leuraud, Klervi; Richardson, David B; Cardis, Elisabeth; Daniels, Robert D; Gillies, Michael; O'Hagan, Jacqueline A; Hamra, Ghassan B; Haylock, Richard; Laurier, Dominique; Moissonnier, Monika; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K; Thierry-Chef, Isabelle; Kesminiene, Ausrele

2015-07-01

There is much uncertainty about the risks of leukaemia and lymphoma after repeated or protracted low-dose radiation exposure typical of occupational, environmental, and diagnostic medical settings. We quantified associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposures and leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma mortality among radiation-monitored adults employed in France, the UK, and the USA. We assembled a cohort of 308,297 radiation-monitored workers employed for at least 1 year by the Atomic Energy Commission, AREVA Nuclear Cycle, or the National Electricity Company in France, the Departments of Energy and Defence in the USA, and nuclear industry employers included in the National Registry for Radiation Workers in the UK. The cohort was followed up for a total of 8.22 million person-years. We ascertained deaths caused by leukaemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. We used Poisson regression to quantify associations between estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose and leukaemia and lymphoma mortality. Doses were accrued at very low rates (mean 1.1 mGy per year, SD 2.6). The excess relative risk of leukaemia mortality (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia) was 2.96 per Gy (90% CI 1.17-5.21; lagged 2 years), most notably because of an association between radiation dose and mortality from chronic myeloid leukaemia (excess relative risk per Gy 10.45, 90% CI 4.48-19.65). This study provides strong evidence of positive associations between protracted low-dose radiation exposure and leukaemia. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, AREVA, Electricité de France, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, US Department of Energy, US Department of Health and Human Services, University of North Carolina, Public Health England. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cancer Risk Assessment for Space Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. This is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within any given clinically normal individual. The radiation health research priorities for enabling long-duration human exploration of space were established in the 1996 NRC Report entitled "Radiation Hazards to Crews of Interplanetary Missions: Biological Issues and Research Strategies". This report emphasized that a 15-fold uncertainty in predicting radiation-induced cancer incidence must be reduced before NASA can commit humans to extended interplanetary missions. That report concluded that the great majority of this uncertainty is biologically based, while a minority is physically based due to uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and radiation transport codes. Since that report, the biologically based uncertainty has remained large, and the relatively small uncertainty associated with radiation dosimetry has increased due to the considerations raised by concepts of microdosimetry. In a practical sense, however, the additional uncertainties introduced by microdosimetry are encouraging since they are in a direction of lowered effective dose absorbed through infrequent interactions of any given cell with the high energy particle component of space radiation. The biological uncertainty in predicting cancer risk for space radiation derives from two primary facts. 1) One animal tumor study has been reported that includes a relevant spectrum of particle radiation energies, and that is the Harderian gland model in mice. Fact #1: Extension of cancer risk from animal models, and especially from a single study in an animal model, to humans is inherently uncertain. 2) One human database

Improving the S-Shape Solar Radiation Estimation Method for Supporting Crop Models

PubMed Central

Fodor, Nándor

2012-01-01

In line with the critical comments formulated in relation to the S-shape global solar radiation estimation method, the original formula was improved via a 5-step procedure. The improved method was compared to four-reference methods on a large North-American database. According to the investigated error indicators, the final 7-parameter S-shape method has the same or even better estimation efficiency than the original formula. The improved formula is able to provide radiation estimates with a particularly low error pattern index (PIdoy) which is especially important concerning the usability of the estimated radiation values in crop models. Using site-specific calibration, the radiation estimates of the improved S-shape method caused an average of 2.72 ± 1.02 (α = 0.05) relative error in the calculated biomass. Using only readily available site specific metadata the radiation estimates caused less than 5% relative error in the crop model calculations when they were used for locations in the middle, plain territories of the USA. PMID:22645451

Cellular and molecular research to reduce uncertainties in estimates of health effects from low-level radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elkind, M.M.; Bedford, J.; Benjamin, S.A.

1990-10-01

A study was undertaken by five radiation scientists to examine the feasibility of reducing the uncertainties in the estimation of risk due to protracted low doses of ionizing radiation. In addressing the question of feasibility, a review was made by the study group: of the cellular, molecular, and mammalian radiation data that are available; of the way in which altered oncogene properties could be involved in the loss of growth control that culminates in tumorigenesis; and of the progress that had been made in the genetic characterizations of several human and animal neoplasms. On the basis of this analysis, themore » study group concluded that, at the present time, it is feasible to mount a program of radiation research directed at the mechanism(s) of radiation-induced cancer with special reference to risk of neoplasia due to protracted, low doses of sparsely ionizing radiation. To implement a program of research, a review was made of the methods, techniques, and instruments that would be needed. This review was followed by a survey of the laboratories and institutions where scientific personnel and facilities are known to be available. A research agenda of the principal and broad objectives of the program is also discussed. 489 refs., 21 figs., 14 tabs.« less

Confounding of the Association between Radiation Exposure from CT Scans and Risk of Leukemia and Brain Tumors by Cancer Susceptibility Syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-01-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of CT scans performed in children. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk estimates. Because there is virtually no empirical evidence in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about the current and previous patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome, or other CSS. In contrast, RRs for brain tumors may be overestimated due to confounding by tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) while von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1, or other CSS do not meaningfully confound. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients are urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with leukemia reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS, whereas brain tumor risks might have been overestimated due to confounding by TSC. Future studies should identify TSC patients in order to avoid overestimation of brain tumor risks due to radiation exposure from CT scans. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and risk of esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Tran, Bich; Lucas, Robyn; Kimlin, Michael; Whiteman, David; Neale, Rachel

2012-12-01

Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.

Role of Radiation Dose in the Risk of Secondary Leukemia After a Solid Tumor in Childhood Treated Between 1980 and 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allard, Aurore; Haddy, Nadia; Le Deley, Marie-Cecile

2010-12-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of secondary leukemia as a function of radiation dose, taking into account heterogeneous radiation dose distribution. Methods and Materials: We analyzed a case-control study that investigated the risk of secondary leukemia and myelodysplasia after a solid tumor in childhood; it included 61 patients with leukemia matched with 196 controls. Complete clinical, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy histories were recorded for each patient in the study. Average radiation dose to each of seven bone marrow components for each patient was incorporated into the models, and corresponding risks were summed up. Conditional maximummore » likelihood methods were used to estimate risk parameters. Results: Whatever the model, we failed to evidence a role for the radiation dose to active bone marrow in the risk of later leukemia, myelodysplasia, or myeloproliferative syndrome, when adjusting for epipodophyllotoxin and anthracycline doses. This result was confirmed when fitting models that included total dose of radiation delivered during radiotherapy, when fitting models taking into account dose per fraction, and when restricting the analysis to acute myeloid leukemia. Conclusions: In contrast to results found in similar studies that included children treated before the use of epipodophyllotoxins, this study failed to show a role for radiotherapy in the risk of secondary leukemia after childhood cancer in children treated between 1980 and 1999. This discrepancy was probably due to a competitive mechanism between these two carcinogens.« less

Confounding of the association between radiation exposure from CT scans and risk of leukemia and brain tumors by cancer susceptibility syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-12-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of pediatric CT scans. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk. Since empirical evidence is lacking in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome and other CSS. Moreover, tuberous sclerosis complex, von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1 and other CSS do not meaningfully confound RRs for brain tumors. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients is urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans and leukemia or brain tumors reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS.

Cancer Risks Associated with External Radiation From Diagnostic Imaging Procedures

PubMed Central

Linet, Martha S.; Slovis, Thomas L.; Miller, Donald L.; Kleinerman, Ruth; Lee, Choonsik; Rajaraman, Preetha; de Gonzalez, Amy Berrington

2012-01-01

The 600% increase in medical radiation exposure to the US population since 1980 has provided immense benefit, but potential future cancer risks to patients. Most of the increase is from diagnostic radiologic procedures. The objectives of this review are to summarize epidemiologic data on cancer risks associated with diagnostic procedures, describe how exposures from recent diagnostic procedures relate to radiation levels linked with cancer occurrence, and propose a framework of strategies to reduce radiation from diagnostic imaging in patients. We briefly review radiation dose definitions, mechanisms of radiation carcinogenesis, key epidemiologic studies of medical and other radiation sources and cancer risks, and dose trends from diagnostic procedures. We describe cancer risks from experimental studies, future projected risks from current imaging procedures, and the potential for higher risks in genetically susceptible populations. To reduce future projected cancers from diagnostic procedures, we advocate widespread use of evidence-based appropriateness criteria for decisions about imaging procedures, oversight of equipment to deliver reliably the minimum radiation required to attain clinical objectives, development of electronic lifetime records of imaging procedures for patients and their physicians, and commitment by medical training programs, professional societies, and radiation protection organizations to educate all stakeholders in reducing radiation from diagnostic procedures. PMID:22307864

Ionizing radiation exposures in treatments of solid neoplasms are not associated with subsequent increased risks of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Radivoyevitch, Tomas; Sachs, Rainer K; Gale, Robert Peter; Smith, Mitchell R; Hill, Brian T

2016-04-01

Exposure to ionizing radiation is not thought to cause chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Challenging this notion are recent data suggesting CLL incidence may be increased by radiation exposure from the atomic bombs (after many decades), uranium mining and nuclear power facility accidents. To assess the effects of therapeutic ionizing radiation for the treatment of solid neoplasms we studied CLL risks in data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Specifically, we compared the risks of developing CLL in persons with a 1(st) non-hematologic cancer treated with or without ionizing radiation. We controlled for early detection effects on CLL risk induced by surveillance after 1(st) cancer diagnoses by forming all-time cumulative CLL relative risks (RR). We estimate such CLL RR to be 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 1.17, 1.23) for persons whose 1(st) cancer was not treated with ionizing radiation and 1.00 (0.96, 1.05) for persons whose 1(st) cancer was treated with ionizing radiations. These results imply that diagnosis of a solid neoplasm is associated with an increased risk of developing CLL only in persons whose 1(st) cancer was not treated with radiation therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation risk and human space exploration.

PubMed

Schimmerling, W; Cucinotta, F A; Wilson, J W

2003-01-01

Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Radiation risk and human space exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W.

2003-01-01

Radiation protection is essential to enable humans to live and work safely in space. Predictions about the nature and magnitude of the risks posed by space radiation are subject to very large uncertainties. Prudent use of worst-case scenarios may impose unacceptable constraints on shielding mass for spacecraft or habitats, tours of duty of crews on Space Station, and on the radius and duration of sorties on planetary surfaces. The NASA Space Radiation Health Program has been devised to develop the knowledge required to accurately predict and to efficiently manage radiation risk. The knowledge will be acquired by means of a peer-reviewed, largely ground-based and investigator-initiated, basic science research program. The NASA Strategic Plan to accomplish these objectives in a manner consistent with the high priority assigned to the protection and health maintenance of crews will be presented. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Solar and Net Radiation for Estimating Potential Evaporation from Three Vegetation Canopies

Treesearch

D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; G.W. Cheschier; G.P. Fernandez

2000-01-01

Solar and net radiation data are frequent/y used in estimating potential evaporation (PE) from various vegetative surfaces needed for water balance and hydrologic modeling studies. Weather parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and net radiation have been continuously monitored using automated sensors to estimate PE for...

Prototype Biology-Based Radiation Risk Module Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terrier, Douglas; Clayton, Ronald G.; Patel, Zarana; Hu, Shaowen; Huff, Janice

2015-01-01

Biological effects of space radiation and risk mitigation are strategic knowledge gaps for the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The current epidemiology-based NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model contains large uncertainties (HAT #6.5a) due to lack of information on the radiobiology of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and lack of human data. The use of experimental models that most accurately replicate the response of human tissues is critical for precision in risk projections. Our proposed study will compare DNA damage, histological, and cell kinetic parameters after irradiation in normal 2D human cells versus 3D tissue models, and it will use a multi-scale computational model (CHASTE) to investigate various biological processes that may contribute to carcinogenesis, including radiation-induced cellular signaling pathways. This cross-disciplinary work, with biological validation of an evolvable mathematical computational model, will help reduce uncertainties within NSCR and aid risk mitigation for radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

Therapeutic radiation and the potential risk of second malignancies.

PubMed

Kamran, Sophia C; Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Ng, Andrea; Haas-Kogan, Daphne; Viswanathan, Akila N

2016-06-15

Radiation has long been associated with carcinogenesis. Nevertheless, it is an important part of multimodality therapy for many malignancies. It is critical to assess the risk of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) after radiation treatment. The authors reviewed the literature with a focus on radiation and associated SMNs for primary hematologic, breast, gynecologic, and pediatric tumors. Radiation appeared to increase the risk of SMN in all of these; however, this risk was found to be associated with age, hormonal influences, chemotherapy use, environmental influences, genetic predisposition, infection, and immunosuppression. The risk also appears to be altered with modern radiotherapy techniques. Practitioners of all specialties who treat cancer survivors in follow-up should be aware of this potential risk. Cancer 2016;122:1809-21. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Daughtry, C. S. T.; Gallo, K. P.

1982-01-01

Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.

Radiation and cancer risk in atomic-bomb survivors.

PubMed

Kodama, K; Ozasa, K; Okubo, T

2012-03-01

With the aim of accurately assessing the effects of radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation has, over several decades, conducted studies of the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort, comprising 93 000 atomic-bomb survivors and 27 000 controls. Solid cancer: the recent report on solid cancer incidence found that at age 70 years following exposure at age 30 years, solid cancer rates increase by about 35%  Gy(-1) for men and 58% Gy(-1) for women. Age-at-exposure is an important risk modifier. In the case of lung cancer, cigarette smoking has been found to be an important risk modifier. Radiation has similar effects on first-primary and second-primary cancer risks. Finally, radiation-associated increases in cancer rates appear to persist throughout life. Leukaemia: the recent report on leukaemia mortality suggests that radiation effects on leukaemia mortality persisted for more than 50 years. Moreover, significant dose-response for myelodysplastic syndrome was observed in Nagasaki LSS members even 40-60 years after radiation exposure. Future perspective: given the continuing solid cancer increase in the survivor population, the LSS will likely continue to provide important new information on radiation exposure and solid cancer risks for another 15-20 years, especially for those exposed at a young age.

Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H., E-mail: hpaganetti@mgh.harvard.edu

2015-01-15

Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagationmore » was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the

Developing a new solar radiation estimation model based on Buckingham theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Can; Teke, Ismail

2018-06-01

While the value of solar radiation can be expressed physically in the days without clouds, this expression becomes difficult in cloudy and complicated weather conditions. In addition, solar radiation measurements are often not taken in developing countries. In such cases, solar radiation estimation models are used. Solar radiation prediction models estimate solar radiation using other measured meteorological parameters those are available in the stations. In this study, a solar radiation estimation model was obtained using Buckingham theorem. This theory has been shown to be useful in predicting solar radiation. In this study, Buckingham theorem is used to express the solar radiation by derivation of dimensionless pi parameters. This derived model is compared with temperature based models in the literature. MPE, RMSE, MBE and NSE error analysis methods are used in this comparison. Allen, Hargreaves, Chen and Bristow-Campbell models in the literature are used for comparison. North Dakota's meteorological data were used to compare the models. Error analysis were applied through the comparisons between the models in the literature and the model that is derived in the study. These comparisons were made using data obtained from North Dakota's agricultural climate network. In these applications, the model obtained within the scope of the study gives better results. Especially, in terms of short-term performance, it has been found that the obtained model gives satisfactory results. It has been seen that this model gives better accuracy in comparison with other models. It is possible in RMSE analysis results. Buckingham theorem was found useful in estimating solar radiation. In terms of long term performances and percentage errors, the model has given good results.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Variation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in relation to changes in delineation of the thyroid gland.

PubMed

Rønjom, Marianne F; Brink, Carsten; Lorenzen, Ebbe L; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Johansen, Jørgen

2015-01-01

To examine the variations of risk-estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (HT) from our previously developed normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in relation to variability of delineation of the thyroid gland. In a previous study for development of an NTCP model for HT, the thyroid gland was delineated in 246 treatment plans of patients with HNSCC. Fifty of these plans were randomly chosen for re-delineation for a study of the intra- and inter-observer variability of thyroid volume, Dmean and estimated risk of HT. Bland-Altman plots were used for assessment of the systematic (mean) and random [standard deviation (SD)] variability of the three parameters, and a method for displaying the spatial variation in delineation differences was developed. Intra-observer variability resulted in a mean difference in thyroid volume and Dmean of 0.4 cm(3) (SD ± 1.6) and -0.5 Gy (SD ± 1.0), respectively, and 0.3 cm(3) (SD ± 1.8) and 0.0 Gy (SD ± 1.3) for inter-observer variability. The corresponding mean differences of NTCP values for radiation-induced HT due to intra- and inter-observer variations were insignificantly small, -0.4% (SD ± 6.0) and -0.7% (SD ± 4.8), respectively, but as the SDs show, for some patients the difference in estimated NTCP was large. For the entire study population, the variation in predicted risk of radiation-induced HT in head and neck cancer was small and our NTCP model was robust against observer variations in delineation of the thyroid gland. However, for the individual patient, there may be large differences in estimated risk which calls for precise delineation of the thyroid gland to obtain correct dose and NTCP estimates for optimized treatment planning in the individual patient.

ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION EXPOSURE IN WETLANDS USING RADIATION MODELS, FIELD DATA, AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

This seminar will describe development of methods for the estimation of solar radiation doses in wetlands. The methodology presents a novel approach to incorporating aspects of solar radiation dosimetry that have historically received limited attention. These include effects of a...

Risk of Radiation Retinopathy in Patients With Orbital and Ocular Lymphoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaushik, Megha; Pulido, Jose S.; Schild, Steven E.

2012-12-01

Purpose: Radiation retinopathy is a potential long-term complication of radiation therapy to the orbit. The risk of developing this adverse effect is dose dependent; however, the threshold is unclear. The aim of this study was to identify the risk of developing radiation retinopathy at increasing radiation doses. Methods and Materials: A 40-year retrospective review was performed of patients who received external beam radiation therapy for ocular/orbital non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Results: Sixty-seven patients who had at least one ophthalmic follow-up examination were included in this study. Most patients (52%) were diagnosed with NHL involving the orbit. Patients received external beam radiationmore » therapy at doses between 1886 and 5400 cGy (mean, 3033 {+-} 782 cGy). Radiation retinopathy developed in 12% of patients, and the median time to diagnosis was 27 months (range, 15-241months). The mean prescribed radiation dose in patients with retinopathy was 3309 {+-} 585 cGy, and the estimated retinal dose (derived by reviewing the dosimetry) was 3087 {+-} 1030 cGy. The incidence of retinopathy increased with dose. The average prescribed daily fractionated dose was higher in patients who developed retinopathy than in patients who did not (mean, 202 cGy vs 180 cGy, respectively; P = .04). More patients with radiation retinopathy had comorbid diabetes mellitus type 2 than patients without retinopathy (P = .015). In our study, the mean visual acuity of the eyes that received radiation was worse than that of the eyes that did not (P = .027). Other postradiotherapy ocular findings included keratitis (6%), dry eyes (39%), and cataract (33%). Conclusions: Radiation retinopathy, a known complication of radiotherapy for orbital tumors, relates to vascular comorbidities and dose. Higher total doses and larger daily fractions (>180 cGy) appear to be related to higher rates of retinopathy. Future larger studies are required to identify a statistically significant threshold

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22

137Cs Radiological risk estimation of NSD facility at Karawang site by using RESRAD onsite application: effect of cover thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, B.; Prihastuti, S.; Moersidik, S. S.

2018-02-01

The operational of near surface disposal facility during waste packages loading activity into the facility, or in a monitoring activity around disposal facility at Karawang area is predicted to give a radiological risk to radiation workers. The thickness of disposal facility cover system affected the number of radiological risk of workers. Due to this reason, a radiological risk estimation needs to be considered. RESRAD onsite code is applied for this purpose by analyse the individual accepted dose and radiological risk data of radiation workers. The obtained results and then are compared with radiation protection reference in accordance with national regulation. In this case, the data from the experimental result of Karawang clay as host of disposal facility such as Kd value of 137Cs was used. Results showed that the thickness of the cover layer of disposal facility affected to the radiological risk which accepted by workers in a near surface disposal facility.

Risky Business: The Science and Art of Radiation Risk Communication in the High Risk Context of Space Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgart, Shona Robin; Shavers, Mark; Huff, Janice; Patel, Zarana; Semones, Edward

2016-01-01

Successfully communicating the complex risks associated with radiation exposure is a difficult undertaking; communicating those risks within the high-risk context of space travel is uniquely challenging. Since the potential risks of space radiation exposure are not expected to be realized until much later in life, it is hard to draw comparisons between other spaceflight risks such as hypoxia and microgravity-induced bone loss. Additionally, unlike other spaceflight risks, there is currently no established mechanism to mitigate the risks of incurred radiation exposure such as carcinogenesis. Despite these challenges, it is the duty of the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at NASA's Johnson Space Center to provide astronauts with the appropriate information to effectively convey the risks associated with exposure to the space radiation environment. To this end, astronauts and their flight surgeons are provided with an annual radiation risk report documenting the astronaut's individual radiation exposures from space travel, medical, and internal radiological procedures throughout the astronaut's career. In an effort to improve this communication and education tool, this paper critically reviews the current report style and explores alternative report styles to define best methods to appropriately communicate risk to astronauts, flight surgeons, and management.

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model.

PubMed

Dropkin, Greg

2016-11-24

Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 - 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 - 100 mGy and 0 - 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 - 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

2017-05-01

In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits. Copyright © 2017 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR

Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; To, Khiet; Cacao, Eliedonna

2017-05-01

In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S. population. The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits.

2013 Space Radiation Standing Review Panel Status Review for: The Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure, The Risk of Acute Radiation Syndromes Due to Solar Particle Events (SPEs), The Risk Of Degenerative Tissue Or Other Health Effects From Radiation Exposure, and The Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2014-01-01

The Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) was impressed with the strong research program presented by the scientists and staff associated with NASA's Space Radiation Program Element and National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI). The presentations given on-site and the reports of ongoing research that were provided in advance indicated the potential Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure (CNS) and were extensively discussed by the SRP. This new data leads the SRP to recommend that a higher priority should be placed on research designed to identify and understand these risks at the mechanistic level. To support this effort the SRP feels that a shift of emphasis from Acute Radiation Syndromes (ARS) and carcinogenesis to CNS-related endpoints is justified at this point. However, these research efforts need to focus on mechanisms, should follow pace with advances in the field of CNS in general and should consider the specific comments and suggestions made by the SRP as outlined below. The SRP further recommends that the Space Radiation Program Element continue with its efforts to fill the vacant positions (Element Scientist, CNS Risk Discipline Lead) as soon as possible. The SRP also strongly recommends that NASA should continue the NASA Space Radiation Summer School. In addition to these broad recommendations, there are specific comments/recommendations noted for each risk, described in detail below.

Risk of Subsequent Leukemia After a Solid Tumor in Childhood: Impact of Bone Marrow Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allodji, Rodrigue S., E-mail: rodrigue.allodji@gustaveroussy.fr; Gustave Roussy, Villejuif; Paris Sud University, Orsay

Purpose: To investigate the roles of radiation therapy and chemotherapy in the occurrence of subsequent leukemia after childhood cancer. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from a case-control study with 35 cases and 140 controls. The active bone marrow (ABM) was segmented into 19 compartments, and the radiation dose was estimated in each. The chemotherapy drug doses were also estimated to enable adjustments. Models capable of accounting for radiation dose heterogeneity were implemented for analysis. Results: Univariate analysis showed a significant trend in the increase of secondary leukemia risk with radiation dose, after accounting for dose heterogeneity (P=.046). This trendmore » became nonsignificant after adjustment for doses of epipodophyllotoxins, alkylating agents, and platinum compounds and the first cancer on multivariate analysis (P=.388). The role of the radiation dose appeared to be dwarfed, mostly by the alkylating agents (odds ratio 6.9, 95% confidence interval 1.9-25.0). Among the patients who have received >16 Gy to the ABM, the radiogenic risk of secondary leukemia was about 4 times greater in the subgroup with no alkylating agents than in the subgroup receiving ≥10 g/m{sup 2}. Conclusions: Notwithstanding the limitations resulting from the size of our study population and the quite systematic co-treatment with chemotherapy, the use of detailed information on the radiation dose distribution to ABM enabled consideration of the role of radiation therapy in secondary leukemia induction after childhood cancer.« less

Estimation of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) from OCEANSAT-I OCM using a simple atmospheric radiative transfer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathy, Madhumita; Raman, Mini; Chauhan, Prakash

2015-10-01

Photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) is an important variable for radiation budget, marine and terrestrial ecosystem models. OCEANSAT-1 Ocean Color Monitor (OCM) PAR was estimated using two different methods under both clear and cloudy sky conditions. In the first approach, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud optical depth (COD) were estimated from OCEANSAT-1 OCM TOA (top-of-atmosphere) radiance data on a pixel by pixel basis and PAR was estimated from extraterrestrial solar flux for fifteen spectral bands using a radiative transfer model. The second approach used TOA radiances measured by OCM in the PAR spectral range to compute PAR. This approach also included surface albedo and cloud albedo as inputs. Comparison between OCEANSAT-1 OCM PAR at noon with in situ measured PAR shows that root mean square difference was 5.82% for the method I and 7.24% for the method II in daily time scales. Results indicate that methodology adopted to estimate PAR from OCEANSAT-1 OCM can produce reasonably accurate PAR estimates over the tropical Indian Ocean region. This approach can be extended to OCEANSAT-2 OCM and future OCEANSAT-3 OCM data for operational estimation of PAR for regional marine ecosystem applications.

Minimax estimation of qubit states with Bures risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, Anirudh; Guţă, Mădălin

2018-04-01

The central problem of quantum statistics is to devise measurement schemes for the estimation of an unknown state, given an ensemble of n independent identically prepared systems. For locally quadratic loss functions, the risk of standard procedures has the usual scaling of 1/n. However, it has been noticed that for fidelity based metrics such as the Bures distance, the risk of conventional (non-adaptive) qubit tomography schemes scales as 1/\\sqrt{n} for states close to the boundary of the Bloch sphere. Several proposed estimators appear to improve this scaling, and our goal is to analyse the problem from the perspective of the maximum risk over all states. We propose qubit estimation strategies based on separate adaptive measurements, and collective measurements, that achieve 1/n scalings for the maximum Bures risk. The estimator involving local measurements uses a fixed fraction of the available resource n to estimate the Bloch vector direction; the length of the Bloch vector is then estimated from the remaining copies by measuring in the estimator eigenbasis. The estimator based on collective measurements uses local asymptotic normality techniques which allows us to derive upper and lower bounds to its maximum Bures risk. We also discuss how to construct a minimax optimal estimator in this setup. Finally, we consider quantum relative entropy and show that the risk of the estimator based on collective measurements achieves a rate O(n-1log n) under this loss function. Furthermore, we show that no estimator can achieve faster rates, in particular the ‘standard’ rate n ‑1.

Evaluation of simple model for net radiation estimates above various vegetation covers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Fischer, M.; Kucera, J.; Mozny, M.; Zalud, Z.

2010-09-01

The main objective of submitted study was to calibrate and verify the simple model for net radiation (Rn) estimates during the growing periods of selected agricultural crops. In the same time the soil heat flux (G) measurements were analysed. The model needs incoming solar radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure measurements and information about albedo as input. The net radiation is determined as difference between the incoming net shortwave radiation (Rns) and the outgoing net longwave radiation (Rnl). The Rns is estimated from incoming solar radiation using albedo. The Rnl is estimated from daily maximum and minimum temperature, vapour pressure, incoming solar radiation and derived clear-sky radiation. The accuracy of the model was assessed on the basis of radiation balance measurements (by Net radiometer Schenk 8110) at two experimental stations in the Czech Republic (i.e. Polkovice 49°23´ (N), 17°17´ (E), 205 m a.s.l.; Domanínek 49°32´ (N), 16°15´ (E), 544 m a.s.l.) during the years 2009 and 2010. The parameter G was measured by Hukseflux Thermal Sensor HFP01. For the purpose of mentioned analyses the measurements were conducted during the growing season of spring barley, winter wheat, winter rape, grass, poplars and above field after harvest of cereals (after/without tillage). These covers are very common type of surface within agricultural landscape in Central Europe. The enhanced method of Rn and G estimation were then used for the SoilClim model runs. The present version of SoilClim uses very simple algorithm for radiation balance and should be modified to be closer to reality. Namely the estimates of reference evapotranspiration (ETo), actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and soil water content could be substantially improved by this way. Acknowledgement: We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 521/09/P479) and Research plan No. MSM6215648905 "Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of

CURRENT USE AND FUTURE NEEDS OF BIODOSIMETRY IN STUDIES OF LONG-TERM HEALTH RISK FOLLOWING RADIATION EXPOSURE

PubMed Central

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, André; Kleinerman, Ruth

2009-01-01

Biodosimetry measurements can potentially be an important and integral part of the dosimetric methods used in long-term studies of health risk following radiation exposure. Such studies rely on accurate estimation of doses to the whole body or to specific organs of individuals in order to derive reliable estimates of cancer risk. However, dose estimates based on analytical dose reconstruction (i.e., models) or personnel monitoring measurements, e.g., film-badges, can have substantial uncertainty. Biodosimetry can potentially reduce uncertainty in health risk studies by corroboration of model-based dose estimates or by using them to assess bias in dose models. While biodosimetry has begun to play a more significant role in long-term health risk studies, its use is still generally limited in that context due to one or more factors including, inadequate limits of detection, large inter-individual variability of the signal measured, high per-sample cost, and invasiveness. Presently, the most suitable biodosimetry methods for epidemiologic studies are chromosome aberration frequencies from fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of peripheral blood lymphocytes and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements made on tooth enamel. Both types of measurements, however, are usually invasive and require difficult to obtain biological samples. Moreover, doses derived from these methods are not always directly relevant to the tissues of interest. To increase the value of biodosimetry to epidemiologic studies, a number of issues need to be considered including limits of detection, effects of inhomogenous exposure of the body, how to extrapolate from the tissue sampled to the tissues of interest, and how to adjust dosimetry models applied to large populations based on sparse biodosimetry measurements. The requirements of health risk studies suggest a set of characteristics that, if satisfied by new biodosimetry methods, would increase the overall usefulness of

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainties in the numerical estimates. In 2006, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on the health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation. Cosponsored by the EPA and several other Federal agencies, Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR VII Phase 2 (BEIR VII) primarily addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. In the draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (White Paper), ORIA proposed changes in EPA’s methodology for estimating radiogenic cancers, based on the contents of BEIR VII and some ancillary information. For the most part, it proposed to adopt the models and methodology recommended in BEIR VII; however, certain modifications and expansions are considered to be desirable or necessary for EPA’s purposes. EPA sought advice from the Agency’s Science Advisory Board on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions in the Advisory on EPA’s Draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (record # 83044). The SAB issued its Advisory on Jan. 31, 2008 (EPA-SAB-08-

SU-E-I-54: Effective Dose and Radiation Cancer Risks for Scoliosis Patients Undergoing Full Spine Radiography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Y; Hwang, Y; Tsai, H

2015-06-15

Purpose: Scoliotic patients underwent a lot of radiologic examinations during the control and treatment periods. This study used the PCXMC program to calculate the effective dose of the patients and assess the radiation cancer risks. Methods: Seventy five scoliotic patients were examined using CR or DR systems during the control and treatment periods in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. The technical factors were recorded for each patient during his/her control and treatment period. The entrance surface dose was measured using thermoluminence dosimeters and derived from technical factors and irradiated geometry. The effective dose of patients and relative radiation cancer risks weremore » calculated by the PCXMC program. All required information regarding patient age and sex, the x-ray spectra, and the tube voltage and current were registered. The radiation risk were estimated using the model developed by the BEIR VII committee (2006). Results: The effective doses of full spine radiography with anteroposterior and lateral projections were 0.626 mSv for patients using DR systems, and 0.483mSv for patients using CR systems, respectively. The dose using DR system was 29.6% higher than those using CR system. The maximum organ dose was observed in the breast for both projections in all the systems. The risk of exposure—induced cancer death (REID) of patients for DR and CR systems were 0.009% and 0.007%, respectively. Conclusion: The risk estimates were regarded with healthy skepticism, placed more emphasis on the magnitude of the risk. The effective doses estimated in this study could be served as a reference for radiologists and technologists and demonstrate the necessity to optimize patient protection for full spine radiography though the effective doses are not at the level to induce deterministic effects and not significant in the stochastic effect. This study was supported by the grants from the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CMRPD1D0421)« less

Impact of imaging approach on radiation dose and associated cancer risk in children undergoing cardiac catheterization

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Januzis, Natalie; Nguyen, Giao; Li, Jennifer S.; Fleming, Gregory A.; Yoshizumi, Terry K.

2016-01-01

Objectives To quantify the impact of image optimization on absorbed radiation dose and associated risk in children undergoing cardiac catheterization. Background Various imaging and fluoroscopy system technical parameters including camera magnification, source-to-image distance, collimation, anti-scatter grids, beam quality, and pulse rates, all affect radiation dose but have not been well studied in younger children. Methods We used anthropomorphic phantoms (ages: newborn and 5-years-old) to measure surface radiation exposure from various imaging approaches and estimated absorbed organ doses and effective doses (ED) using Monte Carlo simulations. Models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report were used to compare an imaging protocol optimized for dose reduction versus suboptimal imaging (+20cm source-to-image-distance, +1 magnification setting, no collimation) on lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer. Results For the newborn and 5-year-old phantoms respectively ED changes were as follows: +157% and +232% for an increase from 6-inch to 10-inch camera magnification; +61% and +59% for a 20cm increase in source-to-image-distance; −42% and −48% with addition of 1-inch periphery collimation; −31% and −46% with removal of the anti-scatter grid. Compared to an optimized protocol, suboptimal imaging increased ED by 2.75-fold (newborn) and 4-fold (5-year-old). Estimated cancer LAR from 30-minutes of postero-anterior fluoroscopy using optimized versus sub-optimal imaging respectively was: 0.42% versus 1.23% (newborn female), 0.20% vs 0.53% (newborn male), 0.47% versus 1.70% (5-year-old female) and 0.16% vs 0.69% (5-year-old male). Conclusions Radiation-related risks to children undergoing cardiac catheterization can be substantial but are markedly reduced with an optimized imaging approach. PMID:27315598

Impact of imaging approach on radiation dose and associated cancer risk in children undergoing cardiac catheterization.

PubMed

Hill, Kevin D; Wang, Chu; Einstein, Andrew J; Januzis, Natalie; Nguyen, Giao; Li, Jennifer S; Fleming, Gregory A; Yoshizumi, Terry K

2017-04-01

To quantify the impact of image optimization on absorbed radiation dose and associated risk in children undergoing cardiac catheterization. Various imaging and fluoroscopy system technical parameters including camera magnification, source-to-image distance, collimation, antiscatter grids, beam quality, and pulse rates, all affect radiation dose but have not been well studied in younger children. We used anthropomorphic phantoms (ages: newborn and 5 years old) to measure surface radiation exposure from various imaging approaches and estimated absorbed organ doses and effective doses (ED) using Monte Carlo simulations. Models developed in the National Academies' Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report were used to compare an imaging protocol optimized for dose reduction versus suboptimal imaging (+20 cm source-to-image-distance, +1 magnification setting, no collimation) on lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer. For the newborn and 5-year-old phantoms, respectively ED changes were as follows: +157% and +232% for an increase from 6-inch to 10-inch camera magnification; +61% and +59% for a 20 cm increase in source-to-image-distance; -42% and -48% with addition of 1-inch periphery collimation; -31% and -46% with removal of the antiscatter grid. Compared with an optimized protocol, suboptimal imaging increased ED by 2.75-fold (newborn) and fourfold (5 years old). Estimated cancer LAR from 30-min of posteroanterior fluoroscopy using optimized versus suboptimal imaging, respectively was 0.42% versus 1.23% (newborn female), 0.20% versus 0.53% (newborn male), 0.47% versus 1.70% (5-year-old female) and 0.16% versus 0.69% (5-year-old male). Radiation-related risks to children undergoing cardiac catheterization can be substantial but are markedly reduced with an optimized imaging approach. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study.

PubMed

Wind, Anne E; Gorter, Kees J; van den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

2016-02-01

To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Observational study among 139 GPs. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPs estimated the CHD risk themselves and afterwards they calculated this with the UKPDS risk engine. Under- and overestimation were defined as a difference >5 percentage points difference between both calculations. The impact of the UKPDS risk engine was assessed by measuring differences in medication adjustments between the over-, under- and accurately estimated group. In 42.0% the GP accurately estimated the CHD risk, in 32.4% the risk was underestimated and in 25.6% overestimated. Mean difference between the estimated (18.7%) and calculated (19.1%) 10 years CHD risk was -0.36% (95% CI -1.24 to 0.52). Male gender, current smoking and total cholesterol level were associated with underestimation. Patients with an subjectively underestimated CHD risk received significantly more medication adjustments. Their UKPDS 10 year CHD risk did not increase during the follow-up period, contrary to the other two groups of patients. The UKPDS risk engine may be of added value for risk management in T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Dose loads on and radiation risk values for cosmonauts on a mission to Mars estimated from actual Martian vehicle engineering development].

PubMed

Shafirkin, A V; Kolomenskiĭ, A V; Mitrikas, V G; Petrov, V M

2010-01-01

The current design philosophy of a Mars orbiting vehicle, takeoff and landing systems and the transport return vehicle was taken into consideration for calculating the equivalent doses imparted to cosmonaut's organs and tissues by galactic cosmic rays, solar rays and the Earth's radiation belts, values of the total radiation risk over the lifespan following the mission and over the whole career period, and possible shortening of life expectancy. There are a number of uncertainties that should be evaluated, and radiation limits specified before setting off to Mars.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying and managing the risks of medical ionizing radiation in endourology.

PubMed

Yecies, Todd; Averch, Timothy D; Semins, Michelle J

2018-02-01

The risks of exposure to medical ionizing radiation is of increasing concern both among medical professionals and the general public. Patients with nephrolithiasis are exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation through both diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. Endourologists who perform a high-volume of fluoroscopy guided procedures are also exposed to significant quantities of ionizing radiation. The combination of judicious use of radiation-based imaging modalities, application of new imaging techniques such as ultra-low dose computed tomography (CT) scan, and modifying use of current technology such as increasing ultrasound and pulsed fluoroscopy utilization offers the possibility of significantly reducing radiation exposure. We present a review of the literature regarding the risks of medical ionizing radiation to patients and surgeons as it pertains to the field of endourology and interventions that can be performed to limit this exposure. A review of the current state of the literature was performed using MEDLINE and PubMed. Interventions designed to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure were identified and analyzed. Summaries of the data were compiled and synthesized in the body of the text. While no level 1 evidence exists demonstrating the risk of secondary malignancy with radiation exposure, the preponderance of evidence suggests a dose and age dependent increase in malignancy risk from ionizing radiation. Patients with nephrolithiasis were exposed to an average effective dose of 37mSv over a 2 year period. Multiple evidence-based interventions to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure and associated risk were identified. Current evidence suggest an age and dose dependent risk of secondary malignancy from ionizing radiation. Urologists must act in accordance with ALARA principles to safely manage nephrolithiasis while minimizing radiation exposure.

Residential Exposure to Natural Background Radiation and Risk of Childhood Acute Leukemia in France, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Demoury, Claire; Marquant, Fabienne; Ielsch, Géraldine; Goujon, Stéphanie; Debayle, Christophe; Faure, Laure; Coste, Astrid; Laurent, Olivier; Guillevic, Jérôme; Laurier, Dominique; Hémon, Denis; Clavel, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

Exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation and high-dose rate ionizing radiation are established risk factors for childhood acute leukemia (AL). The risk of AL following exposure to lower doses due to natural background radiation (NBR) has yet to be conclusively determined. AL cases diagnosed over 1990-2009 (9,056 cases) were identified and their municipality of residence at diagnosis collected by the National Registry of Childhood Cancers. The Geocap study, which included the 2,763 cases in 2002-2007 and 30,000 population controls, was used for complementary analyses. NBR exposures were modeled on a fine scale (36,326 municipalities) based on measurement campaigns and geological data. The power to detect an association between AL and dose to the red bone marrow (RBM) fitting UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) predictions was 92%, 45% and 99% for exposure to natural gamma radiation, radon and total radiation, respectively. AL risk, irrespective of subtype and age group, was not associated with the exposure of municipalities to radon or gamma radiation in terms of yearly exposure at age reached, cumulative exposure or RBM dose. There was no confounding effect of census-based socio-demographic indicators, or environmental factors (road traffic, high voltage power lines, vicinity of nuclear plants) related to AL in the Geocap study. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that residential exposure to NBR increases the risk of AL, despite the large size of the study, fine scale exposure estimates and wide range of exposures over France. However, our results at the time of diagnosis do not rule out a slight association with gamma radiation at the time of birth, which would be more in line with the recent findings in the UK and Switzerland.

Papillary Microcarcinoma of the Thyroid among Atomic Bomb Survivors: Tumor Characteristics and Radiation Risk

PubMed Central

Hayashi, Yuzo; Lagarde, Frederic; Tsuda, Nobuo; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Preston, Dale L.; Koyama, Kojiro; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Ron, Elaine; Kodama, Kazunori; Tokuoka, Shoji

2009-01-01

Background Radiation exposure is an established cause of clinical thyroid cancer, but little is known about radiation effects on papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid, a relatively common subclinical thyroid malignancy. Because the incidence of these small thyroid cancers has been increasing, it is important to better understand them and their relationship to radiation. Methods PMCs were identified in a subset of 7659 members of the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors who had archived autopsy or surgical materials. We conducted a pathology review of these specimens and evaluated the histological features of the tumors and the association between PMCs and thyroid radiation dose. Results From 1958 to1995, 458 PMCs were detected among 313 study subjects. The majority of cancers exhibited pathologic features of papillary thyroid cancers. Overall, 81% of the PMCs were of the sclerosing variant and 91% were nonencapsulated, psammoma bodies occurred in 13% and calcification was observed in 23%. Over 95% had papillary or papillary-follicular architecture and most displayed nuclear overlap, clear nuclei, and nuclear grooves. Several of these features increased with increasing tumor size, but no association was found with radiation dose. A significant radiation-dose response was found for the prevalence of PMCs (estimated excess odds ratio/Gy=0.57; 95% CI: 0.01-1.55), with the excess risk observed primarily among females. Conclusion Low-to-moderate doses of ionizing radiation appears to increase the risk of thyroid PMCs, even when exposure occurs during adulthood. PMID:20120034

Risks of radiation cataracts from interplanetary space missions.

PubMed

Lett, J T; Lee, A C; Cox, A B

1994-11-01

Recognition of the human risks from radiation exposure during manned missions in deep space has been fostered by international co-operation; interagency collaboration is facilitating their evaluation. Further co-operation can lead, perhaps by the end of this decade, to an evaluation of one of the three major risks, namely radiation cataractogenesis, sufficient for use in the planning of the manned mission to Mars.

Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

2002-01-01

In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

Diagnostic medical imaging radiation exposure and risk of development of solid and hematologic malignancy.

PubMed

Fabricant, Peter D; Berkes, Marschall B; Dy, Christopher J; Bogner, Eric A

2012-05-01

Limiting patients' exposure to ionizing radiation during diagnostic imaging is of concern to patients and clinicians. Large single-dose exposures and cumulative exposures to ionizing radiation have been associated with solid tumors and hematologic malignancy. Although these associations have been a driving force in minimizing patients' exposure, significant risks are found when diagnoses are missed and subsequent treatment is withheld. Therefore, based on epidemiologic data obtained after nuclear and occupational exposures, dose exposure limits have been estimated. A recent collaborative effort between the US Food and Drug Administration and the American College of Radiology has provided information and tools that patients and imaging professionals can use to avoid unnecessary ionizing radiation scans and ensure use of the lowest feasible radiation dose necessary for studies. Further collaboration, research, and development should focus on producing technological advances that minimize individual study exposures and duplicate studies. This article outlines the research used to govern safe radiation doses, defines recent initiatives in decreasing radiation exposure, and provides orthopedic surgeons with techniques that may help decrease radiation exposure in their daily practice. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

[Estimation of individual breast cancer risk: relevance and limits of risk estimation models].

PubMed

De Pauw, A; Stoppa-Lyonnet, D; Andrieu, N; Asselain, B

2009-10-01

Several risk estimation models for breast or ovarian cancers have been developed these last decades. All these models take into account the family history, with different levels of sophistication. Gail model was developed in 1989 taking into account the family history (0, 1 or > or = 2 affected relatives) and several environmental factors. In 1990, Claus model was the first to integrate explicit assumptions about genetic effects, assuming a single gene dominantly inherited occurring with a low frequency in the population. BRCAPRO model, posterior to the identification of BRCA1 and BRCA2, assumes a restricted transmission with only these two dominantly inherited genes. BOADICEA model adds the effect of a polygenic component to the effect of BRCA1 and BRCA2 to explain the residual clustering of breast cancer. At last, IBIS model assumes a third dominantly inherited gene to explain this residual clustering. Moreover, this model incorporates environmental factors. We applied the Claus, BRCAPRO, BOADICEA and IBIS models to four clinical situations, corresponding to more or less heavy family histories, in order to study the consistency of the risk estimates. The three more recent models (BRCAPRO, BOADICEA and IBIS) gave the closer estimations. These estimates could be useful in clinical practice in front of complex analysis of breast and/or ovarian cancers family history.

Exposure Risks Among Children Undergoing Radiation Therapy: Considerations in the Era of Image Guided Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hess, Clayton B.; Thompson, Holly M.; Benedict, Stanley H.

Recent improvements in toxicity profiles of pediatric oncology patients are attributable, in part, to advances in the field of radiation oncology such as intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) and proton therapy (IMPT). While IMRT and IMPT deliver highly conformal dose to targeted volumes, they commonly demand the addition of 2- or 3-dimensional imaging for precise positioning—a technique known as image guided radiation therapy (IGRT). In this manuscript we address strategies to further minimize exposure risk in children by reducing effective IGRT dose. Portal X rays and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) are commonly used to verify patient position during IGRT and,more » because their relative radiation exposure is far less than the radiation absorbed from therapeutic treatment beams, their sometimes significant contribution to cumulative risk can be easily overlooked. Optimizing the conformality of IMRT/IMPT while simultaneously ignoring IGRT dose may result in organs at risk being exposed to a greater proportion of radiation from IGRT than from therapeutic beams. Over a treatment course, cumulative central-axis CBCT effective dose can approach or supersede the amount of radiation absorbed from a single treatment fraction, a theoretical increase of 3% to 5% in mutagenic risk. In select scenarios, this may result in the underprediction of acute and late toxicity risk (such as azoospermia, ovarian dysfunction, or increased lifetime mutagenic risk) in radiation-sensitive organs and patients. Although dependent on variables such as patient age, gender, weight, body habitus, anatomic location, and dose-toxicity thresholds, modifying IGRT use and acquisition parameters such as frequency, imaging modality, beam energy, current, voltage, rotational degree, collimation, field size, reconstruction algorithm, and documentation can reduce exposure, avoid unnecessary toxicity, and achieve doses as low as reasonably achievable, promoting a culture and practice of �

Estimating Radiation Dose Metrics for Patients Undergoing Tube Current Modulation CT Scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, Kyle Lorin

Computed tomography (CT) has long been a powerful tool in the diagnosis of disease, identification of tumors and guidance of interventional procedures. With CT examinations comes the concern of radiation exposure and the associated risks. In order to properly understand those risks on a patient-specific level, organ dose must be quantified for each CT scan. Some of the most widely used organ dose estimates are derived from fixed tube current (FTC) scans of a standard sized idealized patient model. However, in current clinical practice, patient size varies from neonates weighing just a few kg to morbidly obese patients weighing over 200 kg, and nearly all CT exams are performed with tube current modulation (TCM), a scanning technique that adjusts scanner output according to changes in patient attenuation. Methods to account for TCM in CT organ dose estimates have been previously demonstrated, but these methods are limited in scope and/or restricted to idealized TCM profiles that are not based on physical observations and not scanner specific (e.g. don't account for tube limits, scanner-specific effects, etc.). The goal of this work was to develop methods to estimate organ doses to patients undergoing CT scans that take into account both the patient size as well as the effects of TCM. This work started with the development and validation of methods to estimate scanner-specific TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. An approach was developed to generate estimated TCM schemes that match actual TCM schemes that would have been acquired on the scanner for any patient model. Using this approach, TCM schemes were then generated for a variety of body CT protocols for a set of reference voxelized phantoms for which TCM information does not currently exist. These are whole body patient models representing a variety of sizes, ages and genders that have all radiosensitive organs identified. TCM schemes for these models facilitated Monte Carlo-based estimates of fully

Risk of occupational radiation-induced cataract in medical workers.

PubMed

Milacic, Snezana

2009-01-01

ionizing radiation on the lens of the eye can produce a progressive cataract. Small cumulative doses, over a long time period, can produce adverse effects on the professional capabilities of health workers in the ionizing radiation zone. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether occupational exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation can cause an increase in prevalence of cataract. We compared a group with occupational cataract, consisting of 115 health workers in the ionizing radiation zone, and two control groups: a group of 100 health-care workers in the ionizing radiation zone, with a higher incidence of chromosomal aberrations, but without cataract; and another control group of 26 health-care workers with cataract, outside the zone; all risk factors for the development of cataract were considered: age, sex, diference in profession, duration of occupational exposure, years of service, level of blood sugar, blood pressure, arrhythmias, etc. A more significant incidence of cataract was found in workers in the ionizing radiation zone, where the relative risk was 4.6; p < 0.01. Radiology technicians showed the highest prevalence (63.5%), while physicians-radiologists and pneumologists were second (15.7%) and third (10.3%) respectively; nurses showed a 3.5% incidence and nuclear medicine department workers showed an incidence of only 1.7%. Other risk factors had an effect on the development of cataract (p < 0.05). Occupational exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation, together with other risk factors, is a significant cofactor in the occurrence of cataract as an occupational disease among x-ray exposed health care workers. The categories most at risk are radiology technicians,followed by radiologists.

UPPER BOUND RISK ESTIMATES FOR MIXTURES OF CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk esti...

Estimated Radiation on Mars, Hits per Cell Nucleus

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-03-01

This global map of Mars, based on data from NASA Mars Odyssey, shows estimates for amounts of high-energy-particle cosmic radiation reaching the surface, a serious health concern for any future human exploration of the planet.

Radiation and cancer risk: a continuing challenge for epidemiologists

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

This paper provides a perspective on epidemiological research on radiation and cancer, a field that has evolved over its six decade history. The review covers the current framework for assessing radiation risk and persistent questions about the details of these risks: is there a threshold and more generally, what is the shape of the dose-response relationship? How do risks vary over time and with age? What factors modify the risk of radiation? The example of radon progeny and lung cancer is considered as a case study, illustrating the modeling of epidemiological data to derive quantitative models and the coherence of the epidemiological and biological evidence. Finally, the manuscript considers the need for ongoing research, even in the face of research over a 60-year span. PMID:21489214

Solar Radiation Estimated Through Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling over Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Menezes Neto, Otacilio Leandro; Costa, Alexandre Araújo; Ramalho, Fernando Pinto; de Maria, Paulo Henrique Santiago

2009-03-01

The use of renewable energy sources, like solar, wind and biomass is rapidly increasing in recent years, with solar radiation as a particularly abundant energy source over Northeast Brazil. A proper quantitative knowledge of the incoming solar radiation is of great importance for energy planning in Brazil, serving as basis for developing future projects of photovoltaic power plants and solar energy exploitation. This work presents a methodology for mapping the incoming solar radiation at ground level for Northeast Brazil, using a mesoscale atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System—RAMS), calibrated and validated using data from the network of automatic surface stations from the State Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources from Ceará (Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos- FUNCEME). The results showed that the model exhibits systematic errors, overestimating surface radiation, but that, after the proper statistical corrections, using a relationship between the model-predicted cloud fraction, the ground-level observed solar radiation and the incoming solar radiation estimated at the top of the atmosphere, a correlation of 0.92 with a confidence interval of 13.5 W/m2 is found for monthly data. Using this methodology, we found an estimate for annual average incoming solar radiation over Ceará of 215 W/m2 (maximum in October: 260 W/m2).

A decade of changes in radiation protection.

PubMed

Moulder, J E

1992-04-01

Although radiation protection standards have changed remarkably little over the past decade, there have been changes in our understanding of radiation hazards that may affect the practice of radiation medicine over the next decade. With recognition of indoor radon exposure has come a new focus for public health concerns, because it is now clear that radon rather than medical exposure is the largest controllable source of radiation exposure to the general public. Continued follow-up of irradiated populations has led to an increase in our estimate of the cancer risk for high-dose exposures; this increased risk estimate is, in turn, leading to decreases in radiation exposure limits. Although our concern about the carcinogenic risk for radiation exposure has increased, our concern about genetic consequences has decreased, because no genetic effects have yet been observed in the offspring of atomic bomb survivors. Studies of atomic bomb survivors have also led to a change in the focus of concern over prenatal radiation exposure; the principle risk now appears to be mental retardation rather than childhood cancer.

Radiation Dose Estimation for Pediatric Patients Undergoing Cardiac Catheterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chu

Patients undergoing cardiac catheterization are potentially at risk of radiation-induced health effects from the interventional fluoroscopic X-ray imaging used throughout the clinical procedure. The amount of radiation exposure is highly dependent on the complexity of the procedure and the level of optimization in imaging parameters applied by the clinician. For cardiac catheterization, patient radiation dosimetry, for key organs as well as whole-body effective, is challenging due to the lack of fixed imaging protocols, unlike other common X-ray based imaging modalities. Pediatric patients are at a greater risk compared to adults due to their greater cellular radio-sensitivities as well as longer remaining life-expectancy following the radiation exposure. In terms of radiation dosimetry, they are often more challenging due to greater variation in body size, which often triggers a wider range of imaging parameters in modern imaging systems with automatic dose rate modulation. The overall objective of this dissertation was to develop a comprehensive method of radiation dose estimation for pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization. In this dissertation, the research is divided into two main parts: the Physics Component and the Clinical Component. A proof-of-principle study focused on two patient age groups (Newborn and Five-year-old), one popular biplane imaging system, and the clinical practice of two pediatric cardiologists at one large academic medical center. The Physics Component includes experiments relevant to the physical measurement of patient organ dose using high-sensitivity MOSFET dosimeters placed in anthropomorphic pediatric phantoms. First, the three-dimensional angular dependence of MOSFET detectors in scatter medium under fluoroscopic irradiation was characterized. A custom-made spherical scatter phantom was used to measure response variations in three-dimensional angular orientations. The results were to be used as angular dependence

An Overview of NASA's Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Radiation Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patel, Zarana S.; Huff, Janice L.; Simonsen, Lisa C.

2015-01-01

The association between high doses of radiation exposure and cardiovascular damage is well established. Patients that have undergone radiotherapy for primary cancers of the head and neck and mediastinal regions have shown increased risk of heart and vascular damage and long-term development of radiation-induced heart disease [1]. In addition, recent meta-analyses of epidemiological data from atomic bomb survivors and nuclear industry workers has also shown that acute and chronic radiation exposures is strongly correlated with an increased risk of circulatory disease at doses above 0.5 Sv [2]. However, these analyses are confounded for lower doses by lifestyle factors, such as drinking, smoking, and obesity. The types of radiation found in the space environment are significantly more damaging than those found on Earth and include galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), solar particle events (SPEs), and trapped protons and electrons. In addition to the low-LET data, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on atherosclerosis, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Understanding the qualitative differences in biological responses produced by GCR compared to Earth-based radiation is a major focus of space radiation research and is imperative for accurate risk assessment for long duration space missions. Other knowledge gaps for the risk of radiation-induced cardiovascular disease include the existence of a dose threshold, low dose rate effects, and potential synergies with other spaceflight stressors. The Space Radiation Program Element within NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is managing the research and risk mitigation strategies for these knowledge gaps. In this presentation, we will review the evidence and present an overview of the HRP Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure.

Radiation dosimetry and biophysical models of space radiation effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wu, Honglu; Shavers, Mark R.; George, Kerry

2003-01-01

Estimating the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons, and the absence of epidemiology data for these radiation types. Developing useful biophysical parameters or models that relate energy deposition by space particles to the probabilities of biological outcomes is a complex problem. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra. In contrast to conventional dosimetric methods, models of radiation track structure provide descriptions of energy deposition events in biomolecules, cells, or tissues, which can be used to develop biophysical models of radiation risks. In this paper, we address the biophysical description of heavy particle tracks in the context of the interpretation of both space radiation dosimetry and radiobiology data, which may provide insights into new approaches to these problems.

Risk estimation using probability machines

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

Risk estimation using probability machines.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Abhijit; Szymczak, Silke; Moore, Jason H; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Malley, James D

2014-03-01

Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a "risk machine", will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from.

Assessment of radiation-induced second cancer risks in proton therapy and IMRT for organs inside the primary radiation field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paganetti, Harald; Athar, Basit S.; Moteabbed, Maryam; Adams, Judith A.; Schneider, Uwe; Yock, Torunn I.

2012-10-01

There is clinical evidence that second malignancies in radiation therapy occur mainly within the beam path, i.e. in the medium or high-dose region. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk for developing a radiation-induced tumor within the treated volume and to compare this risk for proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy (IMRT). Instead of using data for specific patients we have created a representative scenario. Fully contoured age- and gender-specific whole body phantoms (4 year and 14 year old) were uploaded into a treatment planning system and tumor volumes were contoured based on patients treated for optic glioma and vertebral body Ewing's sarcoma. Treatment plans for IMRT and proton therapy treatments were generated. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) for developing a second malignancy were calculated using a risk model considering cell kill, mutation, repopulation, as well as inhomogeneous organ doses. For standard fractionation schemes, the LAR for developing a second malignancy from radiation therapy alone was found to be up to 2.7% for a 4 year old optic glioma patient treated with IMRT considering a soft-tissue carcinoma risk model only. Sarcoma risks were found to be below 1% in all cases. For a 14 year old, risks were found to be about a factor of 2 lower. For Ewing's sarcoma cases the risks based on a sarcoma model were typically higher than the carcinoma risks, i.e. LAR up to 1.3% for soft-tissue sarcoma. In all cases, the risk from proton therapy turned out to be lower by at least a factor of 2 and up to a factor of 10. This is mainly due to lower total energy deposited in the patient when using proton beams. However, the comparison of a three-field and four-field proton plan also shows that the distribution of the dose, i.e. the particular treatment plan, plays a role. When using different fractionation schemes, the estimated risks roughly scale with the total dose difference in%. In conclusion, proton therapy can

Acceptability of risk from radiation: Application to human space flight

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This one of NASA`s sponsored activities of the NCRP. In 1983, NASA asked NCRP to examine radiation risks in space and to make recommendations about career radiation limits for astronauts (with cancer considered as the principal risk). In conjunction with that effort, NCRP was asked to convene this symposium; objective is to examine the technical, strategic, and philosophical issues pertaining to acceptable risk and radiation in space. Nine papers are included together with panel discussions and a summary. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin

PubMed Central

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-01

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth’s surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical as and bs Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation (NSE) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration. PMID:28054976

An Improved Approach for Estimating Daily Net Radiation over the Heihe River Basin.

PubMed

Wu, Bingfang; Liu, Shufu; Zhu, Weiwei; Yan, Nana; Xing, Qiang; Tan, Shen

2017-01-04

Net radiation plays an essential role in determining the thermal conditions of the Earth's surface and is an important parameter for the study of land-surface processes and global climate change. In this paper, an improved satellite-based approach to estimate the daily net radiation is presented, in which sunshine duration were derived from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY-2D) cloud classification product, the monthly empirical a s and b s Angstrom coefficients for net shortwave radiation were calibrated by spatial fitting of the ground data from 1997 to 2006, and the daily net longwave radiation was calibrated with ground data from 2007 to 2010 over the Heihe River Basin in China. The estimated daily net radiation values were validated against ground data for 12 months in 2008 at four stations with different underlying surface types. The average coefficient of determination ( R ²) was 0.8489, and the averaged Nash-Sutcliffe equation ( NSE ) was 0.8356. The close agreement between the estimated daily net radiation and observations indicates that the proposed method is promising, especially given the comparison between the spatial distribution and the interpolation of sunshine duration. Potential applications include climate research, energy balance studies and the estimation of global evapotranspiration.

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

PubMed

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Risky business: challenges and successes in military radiation risk communication.

PubMed

Melanson, Mark A; Geckle, Lori S; Davidson, Bethney A

2012-01-01

Given the general public's overall lack of knowledge about radiation and their heightened fear of its harmful effects, effective communication of radiation risks is often difficult. This is especially true when it comes to communicating the radiation risks stemming from military operations. Part of this difficulty stems from a lingering distrust of the military that harkens back to the controversy surrounding Veteran exposures to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War along with the often classified nature of many military operations. Additionally, there are unique military exposure scenarios, such as the use of nuclear weapons and combat use of depleted uranium as antiarmor munitions that are not found in the civilian sector. Also, the large, diverse nature of the military makes consistent risk communication across the vast and widespread organization very difficult. This manuscript highlights and discusses both the common and the distinctive challenges of effectively communicating military radiation risks, to include communicating through the media. The paper also introduces the Army's Health Risk Communication Program and its role in assisting in effective risk communication efforts. The authors draw on their extensive collective experience to share 3 risk communication success stories that were accomplished through the innovative use of a matrixed, team approach that combines both health physics and risk communication expertise.

Pediatric radiation dose and risk from bone density measurements using a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner.

PubMed

Damilakis, J; Solomou, G; Manios, G E; Karantanas, A

2013-07-01

Effective radiation doses associated with bone mineral density examinations performed on children using a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scanner were found to be comparable to doses from pencil-beam DXA devices, i.e., lower than 1 μSv. Cancer risks associated with acquisitions obtained in this study are negligible. No data were found in the literature on radiation doses and potential risks following pediatric DXA performed on GE Lunar DXA scanners. This study aimed to estimate effective doses and associated cancer risks involved in pediatric examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy scanner. Four physical anthropomorphic phantoms representing newborn, 1-, 5-, and 10-year-old patients were employed to simulate DXA exposures. All acquisitions were carried out using the Prodigy scanner. Dose measurements were performed for spine and dual femur using the phantoms simulating the 5- and 10-year-old child. Moreover, doses associated with whole-body examinations were measured for the four phantoms used in the current study. The gender-average effective dose for spine and hip examinations were 0.65 and 0.36 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 5-year-old child and 0.93 and 0.205 μSv, respectively, for the phantom representing the 10-year-old child. Effective doses for whole-body examinations were 0.25, 0.22, 0.19, and 0.15 μSv for the neonate, 1-, 5-, and 10-year old child, respectively. The estimated lifetime cancer risks were negligible, i.e., 0.02-0.25 per million, depending on the sex, age, and type of DXA examination. A formula is presented for the estimation of effective dose from examinations performed on GE Lunar Prodigy scanners installed in other institutions. The effective doses and potential cancer risks associated with pediatric DXA examinations performed on a GE Lunar Prodigy fan-beam scanner were found to be comparable to doses and risks reported from pencil-beam DXA devices.

TU-C-18A-01: Models of Risk From Low-Dose Radiation Exposures: What Does the Evidence Say?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bushberg, J; Boreham, D; Ulsh, B

2014-06-15

At dose levels of (approximately) 500 mSv or more, increased cancer incidence and mortality have been clearly demonstrated. However, at the low doses of radiation used in medical imaging, the relationship between dose and cancer risk is not well established. As such, assumptions about the shape of the dose-response curve are made. These assumptions, or risk models, are used to estimate potential long term effects. Common models include 1) the linear non-threshold (LNT) model, 2) threshold models with either a linear or curvilinear dose response above the threshold, and 3) a hormetic model, where the risk is initially decreased belowmore » background levels before increasing. The choice of model used when making radiation risk or protection calculations and decisions can have significant implications on public policy and health care decisions. However, the ongoing debate about which risk model best describes the dose-response relationship at low doses of radiation makes informed decision making difficult. This symposium will review the two fundamental approaches to determining the risk associated with low doses of ionizing radiation, namely radiation epidemiology and radiation biology. The strengths and limitations of each approach will be reviewed, the results of recent studies presented, and the appropriateness of different risk models for various real world scenarios discussed. Examples of well-designed and poorly-designed studies will be provided to assist medical physicists in 1) critically evaluating publications in the field and 2) communicating accurate information to medical professionals, patients, and members of the general public. Equipped with the best information that radiation epidemiology and radiation biology can currently provide, and an understanding of the limitations of such information, individuals and organizations will be able to make more informed decisions regarding questions such as 1) how much shielding to install at medical facilities

Estimating the dose response relationship for occupational radiation exposure measured with minimum detection level.

PubMed

Xue, Xiaonan; Shore, Roy E; Ye, Xiangyang; Kim, Mimi Y

2004-10-01

Occupational exposures are often recorded as zero when the exposure is below the minimum detection level (BMDL). This can lead to an underestimation of the doses received by individuals and can lead to biased estimates of risk in occupational epidemiologic studies. The extent of the exposure underestimation is increased with the magnitude of the minimum detection level (MDL) and the frequency of monitoring. This paper uses multiple imputation methods to impute values for the missing doses due to BMDL. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to implement the method, which is applied to two distinct scenarios: when dose information is available for each measurement (but BMDL is recorded as zero or some other arbitrary value), or when the dose information available represents the summation of a series of measurements (e.g., only yearly cumulative exposure is available but based on, say, weekly measurements). Then the average of the multiple imputed exposure realizations for each individual is used to obtain an unbiased estimate of the relative risk associated with exposure. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the performance of the estimators. As an illustration, the method is applied to a sample of historical occupational radiation exposure data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Epidemiological research on radiation-induced cancer in atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

Ozasa, Kotaro

2016-08-01

The late effects of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on cancer occurrence have been evaluated by epidemiological studies on three cohorts: a cohort of atomic bomb survivors (Life Span Study; LSS), survivors exposed IN UTERO : , and children of atomic bomb survivors (F1). The risk of leukemia among the survivors increased remarkably in the early period after the bombings, especially among children. Increased risks of solid cancers have been evident since around 10 years after the bombings and are still present today. The LSS has clarified the dose-response relationships of radiation exposure and risk of various cancers, taking into account important risk modifiers such as sex, age at exposure, and attained age. Confounding by conventional risk factors including lifestyle differences is not considered substantial because people were non-selectively exposed to the atomic bomb radiation. Uncertainty in risk estimates at low-dose levels is thought to be derived from various sources, including different estimates of risk at background levels, uncertainty in dose estimates, residual confounding and interaction, strong risk factors, and exposure to residual radiation and/or medical radiation. The risk of cancer in subjects exposed IN UTERO : is similar to that in LSS subjects who were exposed in childhood. Regarding hereditary effects of radiation exposure, no increased risk of cancers associated with parental exposure to radiation have been observed in the F1 cohort to date. In addition to biological and pathogenetic interpretations of the present results, epidemiological investigations using advanced technology should be used to further analyze these cohorts. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

No Association between Radiation Dose from Pediatric CT Scans and Risk of Subsequent Hodgkin Lymphoma.

PubMed

Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Journy, Neige; Lee, Choonsik; Morton, Lindsay M; Harbron, Richard W; Stewart, Douglas R; Parker, Louise; Craft, Alan W; McHugh, Kieran; Little, Mark P; Pearce, Mark S

2017-05-01

Background: We examined the relationship between estimated radiation dose from CT scans and subsequent Hodgkin lymphoma in the UK pediatric CT scans cohort. Methods: A retrospective, record linkage cohort included patients ages 0 to 21 years who underwent CT scans between 1980 and 2002 and were followed up for cancer or death until 2008. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between estimated radiation dose (lagged by 2 years) and incident Hodgkin lymphoma diagnosed at least 2 years after the first CT scan. Results: There were 65 incident cases of Hodgkin lymphoma in the cohort of 178,601 patients. Neither estimated red bone marrow dose nor mean lymphocyte dose from CT scans was clearly associated with an increased risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (RR for 20+ mGy vs. <5 mGy = 0.92 (0.38-2.22) P trend > 0.5 and 1.44 (0.60-3.48) P trend > 0.5), respectively. Conclusions: Radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans 2 or more years before diagnosis was not associated with Hodgkin lymphoma in this large UK cohort. Impact: These findings are consistent with the majority of previous studies, which do not support a link between ionizing radiation and Hodgkin lymphoma. The results contrast our previous positive findings in this cohort for brain tumors and leukemia, both of which are known to be strongly linked to radiation exposure during childhood. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(5); 804-6. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Jiwon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-01-01

The high-latitude climate system contains complicated, but largely veiled physical feedback processes. Climate predictions remain uncertain, especially for the Northern High Latitudes (NHL; north of 60°N), and observational constraint on climate modeling is vital. This study estimates local radiative feedbacks for NHL based on the CERES/Terra satellite observations during March 2000-November 2014. The local shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative feedback parameters are calculated from linear regression of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere on surface air temperatures. These parameters are estimated by the de-seasonalization and 12-month moving average of the radiative fluxes over NHL. The estimated magnitudes of the SW and the LW radiative feedbacks in NHL are 1.88 ± 0.73 and 2.38 ± 0.59 W m-2 K-1, respectively. The parameters are further decomposed into individual feedback components associated with surface albedo, water vapor, lapse rate, and clouds, as a product of the change in climate variables from ERA-Interim reanalysis estimates and their pre-calculated radiative kernels. The results reveal the significant role of clouds in reducing the surface albedo feedback (1.13 ± 0.44 W m-2 K-1 in the cloud-free condition, and 0.49 ± 0.30 W m-2 K-1 in the all-sky condition), while the lapse rate feedback is predominant in LW radiation (1.33 ± 0.18 W m-2 K-1). However, a large portion of the local SW and LW radiative feedbacks were not simply explained by the sum of these individual feedbacks.

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Predicted Risk of Radiation-Induced Cancers After Involved Field and Involved Node Radiotherapy With or Without Intensity Modulation for Early-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma in Female Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Damien C., E-mail: damien.weber@unige.ch; Johanson, Safora; Peguret, Nicolas

2011-10-01

Purpose: To assess the excess relative risk (ERR) of radiation-induced cancers (RIC) in female patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) female patients treated with conformal (3DCRT), intensity modulated (IMRT), or volumetric modulated arc (RA) radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Plans for 10 early-stage HL female patients were computed for 3DCRT, IMRT, and RA with involved field RT (IFRT) and involvednode RT (INRT) radiation fields. Organs at risk dose--volume histograms were computed and inter-compared for IFRT vs. INRT and 3DCRT vs. IMRT/RA, respectively. The ERR for cancer induction in breasts, lungs, and thyroid was estimated using both linear and nonlinear models. Results:more » The mean estimated ERR for breast, lung, and thyroid were significantly lower (p < 0.01) with INRT than with IFRT planning, regardless of the radiation delivery technique used, assuming a linear dose-risk relationship. We found that using the nonlinear model, the mean ERR values were significantly (p < 0.01) increased with IMRT or RA compared to those with 3DCRT planning for the breast, lung, and thyroid, using an IFRT paradigm. After INRT planning, IMRT or RA increased the risk of RIC for lung and thyroid only. Conclusions: In this comparative planning study, using a nonlinear dose--risk model, IMRT or RA increased the estimated risk of RIC for breast, lung, and thyroid for HL female patients. This study also suggests that INRT planning, compared to IFRT planning, may reduce the ERR of RIC when risk is predicted using a linear model. Observing the opposite effect, with a nonlinear model, however, questions the validity of these biologically parameterized models.« less

A Biodosimeter for Multiparametric Determination of Radiation Dose, Radiation Quality, and Radiation Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Jansen, Heather; Bors, Karen

2003-01-01

Predicting risk of human cancer following exposure of an individual or a population to ionizing radiation is challenging. To an approximation, this is because uncertainties of uniform absorption of dose and the uniform processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level within a complex set of biological variables degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the risk of developing cancer by the cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported. This is the demonstration of a dose responsive field effect of enhanced expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells irradiated with cesium-1 37 gamma-rays. Dose response of enhanced K18 expression was experimentally extended over a range of 30 to 90 cGy for cells evaluated at mid-log phase. K18 has been reported to be a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis, and thereby serves as an example of a potential marker for cancer risk, where the reality of such predictive value would require additional experimental development. Since observed radiogenic increase in expression of K18 is a field effect, ie., chronically present in all cells of the irradiated population, it may be hypothesized that K18 expression in specific cells absorbing particulate irradiation, such as the high-LET-producing atomic nuclei of space radiation, will report on both the single-cell distributions of those particles amongst cells within the exposed population, and that the relatively high dose per cell delivered by densely ionizing tracks of those intersecting particles will lead to cell-specific high-expression levels of K18, thereby providing analytical end points that may be used to resolve both the quantity and

Estimation of available global solar radiation using sunshine duration over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Amrita; Park, Jin-ki; Park, Jong-hwa

2015-11-01

Besides designing a solar energy system, accurate insolation data is also a key component for many biological and atmospheric studies. But solar radiation stations are not widely available due to financial and technical limitations; this insufficient number affects the spatial resolution whenever an attempt is made to construct a solar radiation map. There are several models in literature for estimating incoming solar radiation using sunshine fraction. Seventeen of such models among which 6 are linear and 11 non-linear, have been chosen for studying and estimating solar radiation on a horizontal surface over South Korea. The better performance of a non-linear model signifies the fact that the relationship between sunshine duration and clearness index does not follow a straight line. With such a model solar radiation over 79 stations measuring sunshine duration is computed and used as input for spatial interpolation. Finally monthly solar radiation maps are constructed using the Ordinary Kriging method. The cross validation results show good agreement between observed and predicted data.

The increase in animal mortality risk following exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation is not linear quadratic with dose

DOE PAGES

Haley, Benjamin M.; Paunesku, Tatjana; Grdina, David J.; ...

2015-12-09

The US government regulates allowable radiation exposures relying, in large part, on the seventh report from the committee to estimate the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII), which estimated that most contemporary exposures- protracted or low-dose, carry 1.5 fold less risk of carcinogenesis and mortality per Gy than acute exposures of atomic bomb survivors. This correction is known as the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor for the life span study of atomic bomb survivors (DDREF LSS). As a result, it was calculated by applying a linear-quadratic dose response model to data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors and amore » limited number of animal studies.« less

The increase in animal mortality risk following exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation is not linear quadratic with dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haley, Benjamin M.; Paunesku, Tatjana; Grdina, David J.

The US government regulates allowable radiation exposures relying, in large part, on the seventh report from the committee to estimate the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII), which estimated that most contemporary exposures- protracted or low-dose, carry 1.5 fold less risk of carcinogenesis and mortality per Gy than acute exposures of atomic bomb survivors. This correction is known as the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor for the life span study of atomic bomb survivors (DDREF LSS). As a result, it was calculated by applying a linear-quadratic dose response model to data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors and amore » limited number of animal studies.« less

Stochastic Effects in Computational Biology of Space Radiation Cancer Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Pluth, Janis; Harper, Jane; O'Neill, Peter

2007-01-01

Estimating risk from space radiation poses important questions on the radiobiology of protons and heavy ions. We are considering systems biology models to study radiation induced repair foci (RIRF) at low doses, in which less than one-track on average transverses the cell, and the subsequent DNA damage processing and signal transduction events. Computational approaches for describing protein regulatory networks coupled to DNA and oxidative damage sites include systems of differential equations, stochastic equations, and Monte-Carlo simulations. We review recent developments in the mathematical description of protein regulatory networks and possible approaches to radiation effects simulation. These include robustness, which states that regulatory networks maintain their functions against external and internal perturbations due to compensating properties of redundancy and molecular feedback controls, and modularity, which leads to general theorems for considering molecules that interact through a regulatory mechanism without exchange of matter leading to a block diagonal reduction of the connecting pathways. Identifying rate-limiting steps, robustness, and modularity in pathways perturbed by radiation damage are shown to be valid techniques for reducing large molecular systems to realistic computer simulations. Other techniques studied are the use of steady-state analysis, and the introduction of composite molecules or rate-constants to represent small collections of reactants. Applications of these techniques to describe spatial and temporal distributions of RIRF and cell populations following low dose irradiation are described.

Epidemiological research on radiation-induced cancer in atomic bomb survivors

PubMed Central

Ozasa, Kotaro

2016-01-01

The late effects of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on cancer occurrence have been evaluated by epidemiological studies on three cohorts: a cohort of atomic bomb survivors (Life Span Study; LSS), survivors exposed in utero, and children of atomic bomb survivors (F1). The risk of leukemia among the survivors increased remarkably in the early period after the bombings, especially among children. Increased risks of solid cancers have been evident since around 10 years after the bombings and are still present today. The LSS has clarified the dose–response relationships of radiation exposure and risk of various cancers, taking into account important risk modifiers such as sex, age at exposure, and attained age. Confounding by conventional risk factors including lifestyle differences is not considered substantial because people were non-selectively exposed to the atomic bomb radiation. Uncertainty in risk estimates at low-dose levels is thought to be derived from various sources, including different estimates of risk at background levels, uncertainty in dose estimates, residual confounding and interaction, strong risk factors, and exposure to residual radiation and/or medical radiation. The risk of cancer in subjects exposed in utero is similar to that in LSS subjects who were exposed in childhood. Regarding hereditary effects of radiation exposure, no increased risk of cancers associated with parental exposure to radiation have been observed in the F1 cohort to date. In addition to biological and pathogenetic interpretations of the present results, epidemiological investigations using advanced technology should be used to further analyze these cohorts. PMID:26976124

The effect of dose heterogeneity on radiation risk in medical imaging.

PubMed

Samei, Ehsan; Li, Xiang; Chen, Baiyu; Reiman, Robert

2013-06-01

The current estimations of risk associated with medical imaging procedures rely on assessing the organ dose via direct measurements or simulation. The dose to each organ is assumed to be homogeneous. To take into account the differences in radiation sensitivities, the mean organ doses are weighted by a corresponding tissue-weighting coefficients provided by ICRP to calculate the effective dose, which has been used as a surrogate of radiation risk. However, those coefficients were derived under the assumption of a homogeneous dose distribution within each organ. That assumption is significantly violated in most medical-imaging procedures. In helical chest CT, for example, superficial organs (e.g. breasts) demonstrate a heterogeneous dose distribution, whereas organs on the peripheries of the irradiation field (e.g. liver) might possess a discontinuous dose profile. Projection radiography and mammography involve an even higher level of organ dose heterogeneity spanning up to two orders of magnitude. As such, mean dose or point measured dose values do not reflect the maximum energy deposited per unit volume of the organ. In this paper, the magnitude of the dose heterogeneity in both CT and projection X-ray imaging was reported, using Monte Carlo methods. The lung dose demonstrated factors of 1.7 and 2.2 difference between the mean and maximum dose for chest CT and radiography, respectively. The corresponding values for the liver were 1.9 and 3.5. For mammography and breast tomosynthesis, the difference between mean glandular dose and maximum glandular dose was 3.1. Risk models based on the mean dose were found to provide a reasonable reflection of cancer risk. However, for leukaemia, they were found to significantly under-represent the risk when the organ dose distribution is heterogeneous. A systematic study is needed to develop a risk model for heterogeneous dose distributions.

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

2011-01-01

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute

Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

2017-12-01

Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis; Badhwar, Gautam; Saganti, Premkumar; Schimmerling, Walter; Wilson, John; Peterson, Leif; Dicello, John

2002-01-01

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Radiation risks in lung cancer screening programs: a comparison with nuclear industry workers and atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

McCunney, Robert J; Li, Jessica

2014-03-01

The National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) demonstrated that screening with low-dose CT (LDCT) scan reduced lung cancer and overall mortality by 20% and 7%, respectively. The LDCT scanning involves an approximate 2-mSv dose, whereas full-chest CT scanning, the major diagnostic study used to follow up nodules, may involve a dose of 8 mSv. Radiation associated with CT scanning and other diagnostic studies to follow up nodules may present an independent risk of lung cancer. On the basis of the NLST, we estimated the incidence and prevalence of nodules detected in screening programs. We followed the Fleischner guidelines for follow-up of nodules to assess cumulative radiation exposure over 20- and 30-year periods. We then evaluated nuclear worker cohort studies and atomic bomb survivor studies to assess the risk of lung cancer from radiation associated with long-term lung cancer screening programs. The findings indicate that a 55-year-old lung screening participant may experience a cumulative radiation exposure of up to 280 mSv over a 20-year period and 420 mSv over 30 years. These exposures exceed those of nuclear workers and atomic bomb survivors. This assessment suggests that long-term (20-30 years) LDCT screening programs are associated with nontrivial cumulative radiation doses. Current lung cancer screening protocols, if conducted over 20- to 30-year periods, can independently increase the risk of lung cancer beyond cigarette smoking as a result of cumulative radiation exposure. Radiation exposures from LDCT screening and follow-up diagnostic procedures exceed lifetime radiation exposures among nuclear power workers and atomic bomb survivors.

Estimating radiative feedbacks from stochastic fluctuations in surface temperature and energy imbalance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proistosescu, C.; Donohoe, A.; Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Stuecker, M. F.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Joint observations of global surface temperature and energy imbalance provide for a unique opportunity to empirically constrain radiative feedbacks. However, the satellite record of Earth's radiative imbalance is relatively short and dominated by stochastic fluctuations. Estimates of radiative feedbacks obtained by regressing energy imbalance against surface temperature depend strongly on sampling choices and on assumptions about whether the stochastic fluctuations are primarily forced by atmospheric or oceanic variability (e.g. Murphy and Forster 2010, Dessler 2011, Spencer and Braswell 2011, Forster 2016). We develop a framework around a stochastic energy balance model that allows us to parse the different contributions of atmospheric and oceanic forcing based on their differing impacts on the covariance structure - or lagged regression - of temperature and radiative imbalance. We validate the framework in a hierarchy of general circulation models: the impact of atmospheric forcing is examined in unforced control simulations of fixed sea-surface temperature and slab ocean model versions; the impact of oceanic forcing is examined in coupled simulations with prescribed ENSO variability. With the impact of atmospheric and oceanic forcing constrained, we are able to predict the relationship between temperature and radiative imbalance in a fully coupled control simulation, finding that both forcing sources are needed to explain the structure of the lagged-regression. We further model the dependence of feedback estimates on sampling interval by considering the effects of a finite equilibration time for the atmosphere, and issues of smoothing and aliasing. Finally, we develop a method to fit the stochastic model to the short timeseries of temperature and radiative imbalance by performing a Bayesian inference based on a modified version of the spectral Whittle likelihood. We are thus able to place realistic joint uncertainty estimates on both stochastic forcing and

Radiation risk perception and public information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boggs-Mayes, C.J.

1988-01-01

We as Health Physicists face what, at many times, appears to be a hopeless task. The task simply stated is informing the public about the risks (or lack thereof) of radiation. Unfortunately, the public has perceived radiation risks to be much greater than they actually are. An example of this problem is shown in a paper by Arthur C. Upton. Three groups of people -- the League of Women Voters, students, and Business and Professional Club members -- were asked to rank 30 sources of risk according to their contribution to the number of deaths in the United States. Notmore » surprisingly, they ranked nuclear power much higher and medical x-rays much lower than the actual values. In addition to the perception problem, we are faced with another hurdle: health physicists as communicators. Members of the Health Physics Society (HPS) found that the communication styles of most health physicists appear to be dissimilar to those of the general public. These authors administered the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator to the HPS Baltimore-Washington Chapter. This test, a standardized test for psychological type developed by Isabel Myers, ask questions that provide a quantitative measure of our natural preferences in four areas. Assume that you as a health physicist have the necessary skills to communicate information about radiation to the public. Health physicists do nothing with these tools. Most people involved in radiation protection do not get involved with public information activies. What I will attempt to do is heighten your interest in such activities. I will share information about public information activities in which I have been involved and give you suggestions for sources of information and materials. 2 refs., 1 tab.« less

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Residential Exposure to Natural Background Radiation and Risk of Childhood Acute Leukemia in France, 1990–2009

PubMed Central

Demoury, Claire; Marquant, Fabienne; Ielsch, Géraldine; Goujon, Stéphanie; Debayle, Christophe; Faure, Laure; Coste, Astrid; Laurent, Olivier; Guillevic, Jérôme; Laurier, Dominique; Hémon, Denis; Clavel, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

Background: Exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation and high-dose rate ionizing radiation are established risk factors for childhood acute leukemia (AL). The risk of AL following exposure to lower doses due to natural background radiation (NBR) has yet to be conclusively determined. Methods: AL cases diagnosed over 1990–2009 (9,056 cases) were identified and their municipality of residence at diagnosis collected by the National Registry of Childhood Cancers. The Geocap study, which included the 2,763 cases in 2002–2007 and 30,000 population controls, was used for complementary analyses. NBR exposures were modeled on a fine scale (36,326 municipalities) based on measurement campaigns and geological data. The power to detect an association between AL and dose to the red bone marrow (RBM) fitting UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) predictions was 92%, 45% and 99% for exposure to natural gamma radiation, radon and total radiation, respectively. Results: AL risk, irrespective of subtype and age group, was not associated with the exposure of municipalities to radon or gamma radiation in terms of yearly exposure at age reached, cumulative exposure or RBM dose. There was no confounding effect of census-based socio-demographic indicators, or environmental factors (road traffic, high voltage power lines, vicinity of nuclear plants) related to AL in the Geocap study. Conclusions: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that residential exposure to NBR increases the risk of AL, despite the large size of the study, fine scale exposure estimates and wide range of exposures over France. However, our results at the time of diagnosis do not rule out a slight association with gamma radiation at the time of birth, which would be more in line with the recent findings in the UK and Switzerland. Citation: Demoury C, Marquant F, Ielsch G, Goujon S, Debayle C, Faure L, Coste A, Laurent O, Guillevic J, Laurier D, Hémon D, Clavel J

Fears, Feelings, and Facts: Interactively Communicating Benefits and Risks of Medical Radiation With Patients

PubMed Central

Dauer, Lawrence T.; Thornton, Raymond H.; Hay, Jennifer L.; Balter, Rochelle; Williamson, Matthew J.; St. Germain, Jean

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE As public awareness of medical radiation exposure increases, there has been heightened awareness among patients and physicians of the importance of holistic benefit-and-risk discussions in shared medical decision making. CONCLUSION We examine the rationale for informed consent and risk communication, draw on the literature on the psychology of radiation risk communication to increase understanding, examine methods commonly used to communicate radiation risk, and suggest strategies for improving communication about medical radiation benefits and risk. PMID:21427321

Radiation Dose-Response Relationships and Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strom, Daniel J.

The notion of a dose-response relationship was probably invented shortly after the discovery of poisons, the invention of alcoholic beverages, and the bringing of fire into a confined space in the forgotten depths of ancient prehistory. The amount of poison or medicine ingested can easily be observed to affect the behavior, health, or sickness outcome. Threshold effects, such as death, could be easily understood for intoxicants, medicine, and poisons. As Paracelsus (1493-1541), the 'father' of modern toxicology said, 'It is the dose that makes the poison.' Perhaps less obvious is the fact that implicit in such dose-response relationships is alsomore » the notion of dose rate. Usually, the dose is administered fairly acutely, in a single injection, pill, or swallow; a few puffs on a pipe; or a meal of eating or drinking. The same amount of intoxicants, medicine, or poisons administered over a week or month might have little or no observable effect. Thus, before the discovery of ionizing radiation in the late 19th century, toxicology ('the science of poisons') and pharmacology had deeply ingrained notions of dose-response relationships. This chapter demonstrates that the notion of a dose-response relationship for ionizing radiation is hopelessly simplistic from a scientific standpoint. While useful from a policy or regulatory standpoint, dose-response relationships cannot possibly convey enough information to describe the problem from a quantitative view of radiation biology, nor can they address societal values. Three sections of this chapter address the concepts, observations, and theories that contribute to the scientific input to the practice of managing risks from exposure to ionizing radiation. The presentation begins with irradiation regimes, followed by responses to high and low doses of ionizing radiation, and a discussion of how all of this can inform radiation risk management. The knowledge that is really needed for prediction of individual risk is

Limitations in predicting the space radiation health risk for exploration astronauts.

PubMed

Chancellor, Jeffery C; Blue, Rebecca S; Cengel, Keith A; Auñón-Chancellor, Serena M; Rubins, Kathleen H; Katzgraber, Helmut G; Kennedy, Ann R

2018-01-01

Despite years of research, understanding of the space radiation environment and the risk it poses to long-duration astronauts remains limited. There is a disparity between research results and observed empirical effects seen in human astronaut crews, likely due to the numerous factors that limit terrestrial simulation of the complex space environment and extrapolation of human clinical consequences from varied animal models. Given the intended future of human spaceflight, with efforts now to rapidly expand capabilities for human missions to the moon and Mars, there is a pressing need to improve upon the understanding of the space radiation risk, predict likely clinical outcomes of interplanetary radiation exposure, and develop appropriate and effective mitigation strategies for future missions. To achieve this goal, the space radiation and aerospace community must recognize the historical limitations of radiation research and how such limitations could be addressed in future research endeavors. We have sought to highlight the numerous factors that limit understanding of the risk of space radiation for human crews and to identify ways in which these limitations could be addressed for improved understanding and appropriate risk posture regarding future human spaceflight.

Radiation Dose-Response Relationship for Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Survivors of Hodgkin Lymphoma.

PubMed

van Nimwegen, Frederika A; Schaapveld, Michael; Cutter, David J; Janus, Cècile P M; Krol, Augustinus D G; Hauptmann, Michael; Kooijman, Karen; Roesink, Judith; van der Maazen, Richard; Darby, Sarah C; Aleman, Berthe M P; van Leeuwen, Flora E

2016-01-20

Cardiovascular diseases are increasingly recognized as late effects of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treatment. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and to quantify the effects of radiation dose to the heart, chemotherapy, and other cardiovascular risk factors. We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of 2,617 5-year HL survivors, treated between 1965 and 1995. Cases were patients diagnosed with CHD as their first cardiovascular event after HL. Detailed treatment information was collected from medical records of 325 cases and 1,204 matched controls. Radiation charts and simulation radiographs were used to estimate in-field heart volume and mean heart dose (MHD). A risk factor questionnaire was sent to patients still alive. The median interval between HL and CHD was 19.0 years. Risk of CHD increased linearly with increasing MHD (excess relative risk [ERR]) per Gray, 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.3% to 14.8%). This results in a 2.5-fold increased risk of CHD for patients receiving a MHD of 20 Gy from mediastinal radiotherapy, compared with patients not treated with mediastinal radiotherapy. ERRs seemed to decrease with each tertile of age at treatment (ERR/Gy(<27.5years), 20.0%; ERR/Gy(27.5-36.4years), 8.8%; ERR/Gy(36.5-50.9years), 4.2%; P(interaction) = .149). Having ≥ 1 classic CHD risk factor (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, or hypercholesterolemia) independently increased CHD risk (rate ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1). A high level of physical activity was associated with decreased CHD risk (rate ratio, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.8). The linear radiation dose-response relationship identified can be used to predict CHD risk for future HL patients and survivors. Appropriate early management of CHD risk factors and stimulation of physical activity may reduce CHD risk in HL survivors. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francs A.

2008-01-01

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Case Study of the Minimum Provable Risk Considering the Variation in Background Risk: Effect of Residual Risk on Epidemiological Studies and a Comparative Assessment of Fatal Disease Risk Due to Radiation Exposure.

PubMed

Sasaki, Michiya; Ogino, Haruyuki; Hattori, Takatoshi

2018-06-08

In order to prove a small increment in a risk of concern in an epidemiological study, a large sample of a population is generally required. Since the background risk of an end point of interest, such as cancer mortality, is affected by various factors, such as lifestyle (diet, smoking, etc.), adjustment for such factors is necessary. However, it is impossible to inclusively and completely adjust for such factors; therefore, uncertainty in the background risk remains for control and exposed populations, indicating that there is a minimum limit to the lower bound for the provable risk regardless of the sample size. In this case study, we developed and discussed the minimum provable risk considering the uncertainty in background risk for hypothetical populations by referring to recent Japanese statistical information to grasp the extent of the minimum provable risk. Risk of fatal diseases due to radiation exposure, which has recently been the focus of radiological protection, was also examined by comparative assessment of the minimum provable risk for cancer and circulatory diseases. It was estimated that the minimum provable risk for circulatory disease mortality was much greater than that for cancer mortality, approximately five to seven times larger; circulatory disease mortality is more difficult to prove as a radiation risk than cancer mortality under the conditions used in this case study.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Lu, H.-L.

2004-01-01

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified

Cancer risk estimation in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis using GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulations and voxel phantoms.

PubMed

Ferreira, P; Baptista, M; Di Maria, S; Vaz, P

2016-05-01

The aim of this work was to estimate the risk of radiation induced cancer following the Portuguese breast screening recommendations for Digital Mammography (DM) when applied to Digital Breast Tomosynthesis (DBT) and to evaluate how the risk to induce cancer could influence the energy used in breast diagnostic exams. The organ doses were calculated by Monte Carlo simulations using a female voxel phantom and considering the acquisition of 25 projection images. Single organ cancer incidence risks were calculated in order to assess the total effective radiation induced cancer risk. The screening strategy techniques considered were: DBT in Cranio-Caudal (CC) view and two-view DM (CC and Mediolateral Oblique (MLO)). The risk of cancer incidence following the Portuguese screening guidelines (screening every two years in the age range of 50-80years) was calculated by assuming a single CC DBT acquisition view as standalone screening strategy and compared with two-view DM. The difference in the total effective risk between DBT and DM is quite low. Nevertheless in DBT an increase of risk for the lung is observed with respect to DM. The lung is also the organ that is mainly affected when non-optimal beam energy (in terms of image quality and absorbed dose) is used instead of an optimal one. The use of non-optimal energies could increase the risk of lung cancer incidence by a factor of about 2. Copyright © 2016 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation Hormesis: Historical Perspective and Implications for Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Vaiserman, Alexander M.

2010-01-01

Current guidelines for limiting exposure of humans to ionizing radiation are based on the linear-no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis for radiation carcinogenesis under which cancer risk increases linearly as the radiation dose increases. With the LNT model even a very small dose could cause cancer and the model is used in establishing guidelines for limiting radiation exposure of humans. A slope change at low doses and dose rates is implemented using an empirical dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). This imposes usually unacknowledged nonlinearity but not a threshold in the dose-response curve for cancer induction. In contrast, with the hormetic model, low doses of radiation reduce the cancer incidence while it is elevated after high doses. Based on a review of epidemiological and other data for exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates, it was found that the LNT model fails badly. Cancer risk after ordinarily encountered radiation exposure (medical X-rays, natural background radiation, etc.) is much lower than projections based on the LNT model and is often less than the risk for spontaneous cancer (a hormetic response). Understanding the mechanistic basis for hormetic responses will provide new insights about both risks and benefits from low-dose radiation exposure. PMID:20585444

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the

[SYNERGISM OF PRECONCEPTIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE AND PARENTS' ONCO-PATHOLOGY IN THE RISE OF CARCINOGENIC RISK IN THE OFFSPRINGS OF PROFESSIONAL EMPLOYEES].

PubMed

Telnov, V I; Kabirova, N R; Okatenko, P V

2015-01-01

The problem of carcinogenic risk in offsprings of individuals exposed to radiation is challenging and insufficiently studied. In that there are no evaluations of the interaction between radiation and non-radiation factors. The aim of the study was the analysis of interaction of preconceptive radiation exposure and parents' onco-pathology in cancer mortality in offsprings (F1) of workers (fathers) of the Mayak Production Association exposed to a wide range of doses of radiation over a year prior conception. The number of offspring is 8191 individuals (4180 men and 4011 women). The analysis was performed with the use of fourfold table and eightfold tables. The interaction offactors was estimated on the base of the additive and multiplicative models. The studied factors were independent. The odds ratio (OR) of cancer mortality in the offspring with parents' oncopathology (1.43) was insignificant. OR of cancer mortality in preconceptive radiation exposure in a dose over 110 mGy and without parents' onco-pathology was 2.61 (1.52-4.49), and in their combination--3.86 (1.93-7.71). Index of synergism of preconceptive radiation exposure and parents' onco-patholog in the rise of carcinogenic risk in the offspring was 1.34 and the character of their interaction was multiplicative. Thus, for the first time there was established the interaction between radiation and non-radiation factors in the synergism sort in the increase of carcinogenic risk in the offspring of people exposed to radiation.

THE UKRAINIAN-AMERICAN STUDY OF LEUKEMIA AND RELATED DISORDERS AMONG CHORNOBYL CLEANUP WORKERS FROM UKRAINE: III. RADIATION RISKS

PubMed Central

Romanenko, A.Ye.; Finch, S.; Hatch, M.; Lubin, J.; Bebeshko, V.G.; Bazyka, D.A.; Gudzenko, N.; Dyagil, I.S.; Reiss, R.; Bouville, A.; Chumak, V.V.; Trotsiuk, N.K.; Babkina, N.G.; Belayev, Y.; Masnyk; Ron, E.; Howe, G.R.; Zablotska, L.B.

2010-01-01

Leukemia is one of the cancers most susceptible to induction by ionizing radiation, but the effects of lower doses delivered over time have not been adequately quantified. Following the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident in Ukraine in April 1986, several hundred thousand workers who were involved in cleaning up the site and its surroundings received fractionated exposure, primarily from external gamma radiation. To increase our understanding of the role of protracted low-dose radiation exposure in the etiology of leukemia, we conducted a nested case-control study of leukemia in a cohort of cleanup workers identified from the Chornobyl State Registry of Ukraine. The analysis is based on 71 cases of histologically confirmed leukemia diagnosed in 1986–2000 and 501 age- and residence-matched controls selected from the same cohort. Study subjects or their proxies were interviewed about their cleanup activities and other relevant factors. Individual bone marrow radiation doses were estimated by the RADRUE dose reconstruction method (mean dose=76.4 (SD=213.4) milligray (mGy)). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate leukemia risks. The excess relative risk of total leukemia was 3.44 per Gy (95% confidence interval 0.47–9.78, p<0.01). The dose-response was linear and did not significantly differ by calendar period of first work in the 30-km Chornobyl zone, duration or type of work. We found a similar dose-response relationship for chronic and non-chronic lymphocytic leukemia. PMID:19138038

Estimation Of Organ Doses From Solar Particle Events For Future Space Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2006-01-01

Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major organ sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of the effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. If sufficient protection is not provided near solar maximum, the radiation risk can be significant due to exposure to sporadic solar particle events (SPEs) as well as to the continuous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) on future exploratory-class and long-duration missions. For accurate estimates of overall fatal cancer risks from SPEs, the specific doses at various blood forming organs (BFOs) were considered, because proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions. Previous estimates of BFO doses from SPEs have used an average body-shielding distribution for the bone marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). With the development of an 82-point body-shielding distribution at BFOs, the mean and variance of SPE doses in the major active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) will be presented. Consideration of the detailed distribution of bone marrow sites is one of many requirements to improve the estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks.

Surface daytime net radiation estimation using artificial neural networks

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Bo; Zhang, Yi; Liang, Shunlin; ...

2014-11-11

Net all-wave surface radiation (R n) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various applications. However, conventional R n measurements are difficult to collect because of the high cost and ongoing maintenance of recording instruments. Therefore, various empirical R n estimation models have been developed. This study presents the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) models (general regression neural networks (GRNN) and Neuroet) to estimate R n globally from multi-source data, including remotely sensed products, surface measurements, and meteorological reanalysis products. R n estimates provided by the two ANNs were tested against in-situ radiation measurements obtained frommore » 251 global sites between 1991–2010 both in global mode (all data were used to fit the models) and in conditional mode (the data were divided into four subsets and the models were fitted separately). Based on the results obtained from extensive experiments, it has been proved that the two ANNs were superior to linear-based empirical models in both global and conditional modes and that the GRNN performed better and was more stable than Neuroet. The GRNN estimates had a determination coefficient (R 2) of 0.92, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 34.27 W·m –2 , and a bias of –0.61 W·m –2 in global mode based on the validation dataset. In conclusion, ANN methods are a potentially powerful tool for global R n estimation.« less

First observation-based estimates of cloud-free aerosol radiative forcing across China

Treesearch

Zhanqing Li; Kwon-Ho Lee; Yuesi Wang; Jinyuan Xin; Wei-Min Hao

2010-01-01

Heavy loading of aerosols in China is widely known, but little is known about their impact on regional radiation budgets, which is often expressed as aerosol radiative forcing (ARF). Cloud‐free direct ARF has either been estimated by models across the region or determined at a handful of locations with aerosol and/or radiation measurements. In this study, ARF...

Peripheral organ doses from radiotherapy for heterotopic ossification of non-hip joints: is there a risk for radiation-induced malignancies?

PubMed

Berris, Theocharis; Mazonakis, Michalis; Kachris, Stefanos; Damilakis, John

2014-05-01

Radiotherapy, used for heterotopic ossification (HO) management, may increase radiation risk to patients. This study aimed to determine the peripheral dose to radiosensitive organs and the associated cancer risks due to radiotherapy of HO in common non-hip joints. A Monte Carlo model of a medical linear accelerator combined with a mathematical phantom representing an average adult patient were employed to simulate radiotherapy for HO with standard AP and PA fields in the regions of shoulder, elbow and knee. Radiation dose to all out-of-field radiosensitive organs defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection was calculated. Cancer induction risk was estimated using organ-specific risk coefficients. Organ dose change with increased field dimensions was also evaluated. Radiation therapy for HO with a 7 Gy target dose in the sites of shoulder, elbow and knee, resulted in the following equivalent organ dose ranges of 0.85-62 mSv, 0.28-1.6 mSv and 0.04-1.6 mSv, respectively. Respective ranges for cancer risk were 0-5.1, 0-0.6 and 0-1.3 cases per 10(4) persons. Increasing the field size caused an average increase of peripheral doses by 15-20%. Individual organ dose increase depends upon the primary treatment site and the distance between organ of interest and treatment volume. Relatively increased risks of more than 1 case per 10,000 patients were found for skin, breast and thyroid malignancies after treatment in the region of shoulder and for skin cancer following elbow irradiation. The estimated risk for inducing any other malignant disease ranges from negligible to low. Copyright © 2013 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Multidecadal Changes in Near-Global Cloud Cover and Estimated Cloud Cover Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel

2005-01-01

The first paper was Multidecadal changes in near-global cloud cover and estimated cloud cover radiative forcing, by J. R. Norris (2005, J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos., 110, D08206, doi: lO.l029/2004JD005600). This study examined variability in zonal mean surface-observed upper-level (combined midlevel and high-level) and low-level cloud cover over land during 1971-1 996 and over ocean during 1952-1997. These data were averaged from individual synoptic reports in the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA). Although substantial interdecadal variability is present in the time series, long-term decreases in upper-level cloud cover occur over land and ocean at low and middle latitudes in both hemispheres. Near-global upper-level cloud cover declined by 1.5%-sky-cover over land between 1971 and 1996 and by 1.3%-sky-cover over ocean between 1952 and 1997. Consistency between EECRA upper-level cloud cover anomalies and those from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984-1 997 suggests the surface-observed trends are real. The reduction in surface-observed upper-level cloud cover between the 1980s and 1990s is also consistent with the decadal increase in all-sky outgoing longwave radiation reported by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (EMS). Discrepancies occur between time series of EECRA and ISCCP low-level cloud cover due to identified and probable artifacts in satellite and surface cloud data. Radiative effects of surface-observed cloud cover anomalies, called "cloud cover radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies," are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit cloud cover. Zonal mean estimated longwave CCRF has decreased over most of the globe. Estimated shortwave CCRF has become slightly stronger over northern midlatitude oceans and slightly weaker over northern midlatitude land areas. A long-term decline in the magnitude of estimated shortwave CCRF occurs over low-latitude land and ocean

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.