RUNON a hitherto little noticed factor - Field experiments comparing RUNOFF/RUNON processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohl, Bernhard; Achleitner, Stefan; Lumassegger, Simon

2017-04-01

When ponded water moves downslope as overland flow, an important process called runon manifests itself, but is often ignored in rainfall-runoff studies (Nahar et al. 2004) linking infiltration exclusively to rainfall. Runon effects on infiltration have not yet or only scarcely been evaluated (e.g. Zheng et al. 2000). Runoff-runon occurs when spatially variable infiltration capacities result in runoff generated in one location potentially infiltrating further downslope in an area with higher infiltration capacity (Jones et al. 2013). Numerous studies report inverse relationships between unit area volumes of overland flow and plot lengths (Jones et al. 2016). This is an indication that the effects of rainfall and runon often become blurred. We use a coupled hydrological/2D hydrodynamic model to simulate surface runoff and pluvial flooding including the associated infiltration process. In frame of the research project SAFFER-CC (sensitivity assessment of critical condition for local flash floods - evaluating the recurrence under climate change) the influence of land use and soil conservation on pluvial flash flood modeling is assessed. Field experiments are carried out with a portable irrigation spray installation at different locations with a plot size 5m width and 10m length. The test plots were subjected first to a rainfall with constant intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Consecutively a super intense, one hour mid accentuated rainfall hydrograph was applied after 30 minutes at the same plots, ranging from 50 mm/h to 200 mm/h for 1hour. Finally, runon was simulated by upstream feeding of the test plots using two different inflow intensities. The irrigation test showed expected differences of runoff coefficients depending on the various agricultural management. However, these runoff coefficients change with the applied process (rainfall or runon). While a decrease was observed on a plot with a closed litter layer, runoff coefficient from runon increases on poor covered plots. At the same time, a similar variety in the characteristics of the infiltration behavior between rainfall and runoff could be observed. This extension of artificial rainfall simulations with concurrent and successive runon tests will enhance our process understanding.

Convective and microphysics parameterization impact on simulating heavy rainfall in Semarang (case study on February 12th, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faridatussafura, Nurzaka; Wandala, Agie

2018-05-01

The meteorological model WRF-ARW version 3.8.1 is used for simulating the heavy rainfall in Semarang that occurred on February 12th, 2015. Two different convective schemes and two different microphysics scheme in a nested configuration were chosen. The sensitivity of those schemes in capturing the extreme weather event has been tested. GFS data were used for the initial and boundary condition. Verification on the twenty-four hours accumulated rainfall using GSMaPsatellite data shows that Kain-Fritsch convective scheme and Lin microphysics scheme is the best combination scheme among the others. The combination also gives the highest success ratio value in placing high intensity rainfall area. Based on the ROC diagram, KF-Lin shows the best performance in detecting high intensity rainfall. However, the combination still has high bias value.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2003-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

Modelling Hydrologic Processes in the Mekong River Basin Using a Distributed Model Driven by Satellite Precipitation and Rain Gauge Observations

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Yang, Dawen; Sothea, Khem; Jiao, Yang; Gao, Bin; Peng, Xueting; Pang, Zhiguo

2016-01-01

The Mekong River is the most important river in Southeast Asia. It has increasingly suffered from water-related problems due to economic development, population growth and climate change in the surrounding areas. In this study, we built a distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model (GBHM) of the Mekong River using remote sensing data and other publicly available data. Two numerical experiments were conducted using different rainfall data sets as model inputs. The data sets included rain gauge data from the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and remote sensing rainfall data from the Tropic Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42V7). Model calibration and validation were conducted for the two rainfall data sets. Compared to the observed discharge, both the gauge simulation and TRMM simulation performed well during the calibration period (1998–2001). However, the performance of the gauge simulation was worse than that of the TRMM simulation during the validation period (2002–2012). The TRMM simulation is more stable and reliable at different scales. Moreover, the calibration period was changed to 2, 4, and 8 years to test the impact of the calibration period length on the two simulations. The results suggest that longer calibration periods improved the GBHM performance during validation periods. In addition, the TRMM simulation is more stable and less sensitive to the calibration period length than is the gauge simulation. Further analysis reveals that the uneven distribution of rain gauges makes the input rainfall data less representative and more heterogeneous, worsening the simulation performance. Our results indicate that remotely sensed rainfall data may be more suitable for driving distributed hydrologic models, especially in basins with poor data quality or limited gauge availability. PMID:27010692

Modelling Hydrologic Processes in the Mekong River Basin Using a Distributed Model Driven by Satellite Precipitation and Rain Gauge Observations.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Yang, Dawen; Sothea, Khem; Jiao, Yang; Gao, Bin; Peng, Xueting; Pang, Zhiguo

2016-01-01

The Mekong River is the most important river in Southeast Asia. It has increasingly suffered from water-related problems due to economic development, population growth and climate change in the surrounding areas. In this study, we built a distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model (GBHM) of the Mekong River using remote sensing data and other publicly available data. Two numerical experiments were conducted using different rainfall data sets as model inputs. The data sets included rain gauge data from the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and remote sensing rainfall data from the Tropic Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42V7). Model calibration and validation were conducted for the two rainfall data sets. Compared to the observed discharge, both the gauge simulation and TRMM simulation performed well during the calibration period (1998-2001). However, the performance of the gauge simulation was worse than that of the TRMM simulation during the validation period (2002-2012). The TRMM simulation is more stable and reliable at different scales. Moreover, the calibration period was changed to 2, 4, and 8 years to test the impact of the calibration period length on the two simulations. The results suggest that longer calibration periods improved the GBHM performance during validation periods. In addition, the TRMM simulation is more stable and less sensitive to the calibration period length than is the gauge simulation. Further analysis reveals that the uneven distribution of rain gauges makes the input rainfall data less representative and more heterogeneous, worsening the simulation performance. Our results indicate that remotely sensed rainfall data may be more suitable for driving distributed hydrologic models, especially in basins with poor data quality or limited gauge availability.

Comparison of TOPMODEL streamflow simulations using NEXRAD-based and measured rainfall data, McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Westcott, Nancy E.; Hudson, Robert J.M.; Conrads, Paul; Bradley, Paul M.

2012-01-01

Rainfall is an important forcing function in most watershed models. As part of a previous investigation to assess interactions among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations in the Edisto River Basin, the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) was applied in the McTier Creek watershed in Aiken County, South Carolina. Measured rainfall data from six National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative (COOP) stations surrounding the McTier Creek watershed were used to calibrate the McTier Creek TOPMODEL. Since the 1990s, the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) has provided rainfall estimates at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the NWS COOP network. For this investigation, NEXRAD-based rainfall data were generated at the NWS COOP stations and compared with measured rainfall data for the period June 13, 2007, to September 30, 2009. Likewise, these NEXRAD-based rainfall data were used with TOPMODEL to simulate streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed and then compared with the simulations made using measured rainfall data. NEXRAD-based rainfall data for non-zero rainfall days were lower than measured rainfall data at all six NWS COOP locations. The total number of concurrent days for which both measured and NEXRAD-based data were available at the COOP stations ranged from 501 to 833, the number of non-zero days ranged from 139 to 209, and the total difference in rainfall ranged from -1.3 to -21.6 inches. With the calibrated TOPMODEL, simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall data and those using measured rainfall data produce similar results with respect to matching the timing and shape of the hydrographs. Comparison of the bias, which is the mean of the residuals between observed and simulated streamflow, however, reveals that simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall tended to underpredict streamflow overall. Given that the total NEXRAD-based rainfall data for the simulation period is lower than the total measured rainfall at the NWS COOP locations, this bias would be expected. Therefore, to better assess the use of NEXRAD-based rainfall estimates as compared to NWS COOP rainfall data on the hydrologic simulations, TOPMODEL was recalibrated and updated simulations were made using the NEXRAD-based rainfall data. Comparisons of observed and simulated streamflow show that the TOPMODEL results using measured rainfall data and NEXRAD-based rainfall are comparable. Nonetheless, TOPMODEL simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall still tended to underpredict total streamflow volume, although the magnitude of differences were similar to the simulations using measured rainfall. The McTier Creek watershed was subdivided into 12 subwatersheds and NEXRAD-based rainfall data were generated for each subwatershed. Simulations of streamflow were generated for each subwatershed using NEXRAD-based rainfall and compared with subwatershed simulations using measured rainfall data, which unlike the NEXRAD-based rainfall were the same data for all subwatersheds (derived from a weighted average of the six NWS COOP stations surrounding the basin). For the two simulations, subwatershed streamflow were summed and compared to streamflow simulations at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. The percentage differences at the gage near Monetta, South Carolina, were the same for simulations using measured rainfall data and NEXRAD-based rainfall. At the gage near New Holland, South Carolina, the percentage differences using the NEXRAD-based rainfall were twice as much as those using the measured rainfall. Single-mass curve comparisons showed an increase in the total volume of rainfall from north to south. Similar comparisons of the measured rainfall at the NWS COOP stations showed similar percentage differences, but the NEXRAD-based rainfall variations occurred over a much smaller distance than the measured rainfall. Nonetheless, it was concluded that in some cases, using NEXRAD-based rainfall data in TOPMODEL streamflow simulations may provide an effective alternative to using measured rainfall data. For this investigation, however, TOPMODEL streamflow simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall data for both calibration and simulations did not show significant improvements with respect to matching observed streamflow over simulations generated using measured rainfall data.

Sensitivity of CONUS Summer Rainfall to the Selection of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in NU-WRF Seasonal Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Santanello, Joseph A.; Kemp, Eric; Tian, Yudong; Case, Jonathan; Wang, Weile; Ferraro, Robert;

A small single-nozzle rainfall simulator to measure erosion response on different burn severities in southern British Columbia, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covert, Ashley; Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

To study the effects of wildfire burn severity on runoff generation and soil erosion from high intensity rainfall, we constructed an effective yet simple rainfall simulator that was inexpensive, portable and easily operated by two people on steep, forested slopes in southern British Columbia, Canada. The entire apparatus, including simulator, pumps, hoses, collapsible water bladders and sample bottles, was designed to fit into a single full-sized pick-up truck. The three-legged simulator extended to approximately 3.3 metres above ground on steep slopes and used a single Spraying Systems 1/2HH-30WSQ nozzle which can easily be interchanged for other sized nozzles. Rainfall characteristics were measured using a digital camera which took images of the raindrops against a grid. Median drop size and velocity 5 cm above ground were measured and found to be 3/4 of the size of natural rain drops of that diameter class, and fell 7% faster than terminal velocity. The simulator was used for experiments on runoff and erosion on sites burned in 2007 by two wildfires in southern British Columbia. Simulations were repeated one and two years after the fires. Rainfall was simulated at an average rate of 67 mm hr-1 over a 1 m2 plot for 20 minutes. This rainfall rate is similar to the 100 year return period rainfall intensity for this duration at a nearby weather station. Simulations were conducted on five replicate 1 m2 plots in each experimental unit including high burn severity, moderate burn severity, unburned, and unburned with forest floor removed. During the simulation a sample was collected for 30 seconds every minute, with two additional samples until runoff ceased, resulting in 22 samples per simulation. Runoff, overland flow coefficient, infiltration and sediment yield were compared between treatments. Additional simulations were conducted immediately after a 2009 wildfire to test different mulch treatments. Typical results showed that runoff on plots with high burn severity and with forest floor removed was similar, reaching on average a steady rate of about 60% of rainfall rate after about 7 minutes. Runoff on unburned plots with intact forest floor was much lower, typically less than 20% of rainfall rate. Sediment yield was greatest on plots with forest floor removed, followed by severely burned plots. Sediment yield on unburned and moderately burned plots was very low to zero. These results are consistent with qualitative observations made following several extreme rainfall events on recent burns in the region.

Lattice Boltzmann method for rain-induced overland flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yu; Liu, Haifei; Peng, Yong; Xing, Liming

2018-07-01

Complex rainfall situations can generate overland flow with complex hydrodynamic characteristics, affecting the surface configuration (i.e. sheet erosion) and environment to varying degrees. Reliable numerical simulations can provide a scientific method for the optimization of environmental management. A mesoscopic numerical method, the lattice Boltzmann method, was employed to simulate overland flows. To deal with complex rainfall, two schemes were introduced to improve the lattice Boltzmann equation and the local equilibrium function, respectively. Four typical cases with differences in rainfall, bed roughness, and slopes were selected to test the accuracy and applicability of the proposed schemes. It was found that the simulated results were in good agreement with the experimental data, analytical values, and the results produced by other models.

Multifractal characterisation of a simulated surface flow: A case study with Multi-Hydro in Jouy-en-Josas, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, Auguste; Abbes, Jean-Baptiste; da Silva Rocha Paz, Igor; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2018-03-01

In this paper we suggest to innovatively use scaling laws and more specifically Universal Multifractals (UM) to analyse simulated surface runoff and compare the retrieved scaling features with the rainfall ones. The methodology is tested on a 3 km2 semi-urbanised with a steep slope study area located in the Paris area along the Bièvre River. First Multi-Hydro, a fully distributed model is validated on this catchment for four rainfall events measured with the help of a C-band radar. The uncertainty associated with small scale unmeasured rainfall, i.e. occurring below the 1 km × 1 km × 5 min observation scale, is quantified with the help of stochastic downscaled rainfall fields. It is rather significant for simulated flow and more limited on overland water depth for these rainfall events. Overland depth is found to exhibit a scaling behaviour over small scales (10 m-80 m) which can be related to fractal features of the sewer network. No direct and obvious dependency between the overland depth multifractal features (quality of the scaling and UM parameters) and the rainfall ones was found.

The development of a capability for aerodynamic testing of large-scale wing sections in a simulated natural rain environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bezos, Gaudy M.; Cambell, Bryan A.; Melson, W. Edward

1989-01-01

A research technique to obtain large-scale aerodynamic data in a simulated natural rain environment has been developed. A 10-ft chord NACA 64-210 wing section wing section equipped with leading-edge and trailing-edge high-lift devices was tested as part of a program to determine the effect of highly-concentrated, short-duration rainfall on airplane performance. Preliminary dry aerodynamic data are presented for the high-lift configuration at a velocity of 100 knots and an angle of attack of 18 deg. Also, data are presented on rainfield uniformity and rainfall concentration intensity levels obtained during the calibration of the rain simulation system.

North Pacific Westerly Jet Influence of the Winter Hawaii Rainfall in the last 21,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.

2017-12-01

Hawaii rainfall has a strong seasonality which has more rainfall during the winter than summer. Part of the winter rainfall is from extratropical weather disturbances. Kona lows (KL) are important contributors to the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. KL activity is found to have a strong relationship with the North Pacific climate variability. The goal of the research is to test the hypothesis that changes in the strength and position of the upper level zonal wind jet is a key driver for regional rainfall changes. The main objectives are (1) to identify the relationship between North Pacific westerly jet strength and KL activity in present day climate, (2) to test the stability of this relationship under past climatic conditions, and (3) to explore the teleconnection between Hawaii and North America. For the present-day analysis of the westerly jet, the zonal wind at 250hPa is used from ERA-interim data from 1979-2014. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For the paleoclimatic study, the transient TraCE-21ka simulation is used for the zonal wind - Hawaii rainfall analysis. The results of present-day analysis show that when the jet extends farther into the eastern Pacific sector the Kona Low activity is reduced, less winter rainfall is observed over Hawaii and more rainfall over the California region. The jet position-rainfall relationship was investigated within the TrACE-21 simulation. For the TraCE-21ka dataset, there is an increasing rainfall trend from 21kBP to 14kBP; this period coincides with a gradual decrease in the strength of the westerly wind jet. The results show that the westerly jet strength has a strong influence of the Kona Low activity and the rainfall over Hawaii both in the present and the past.

Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

Rain droplet erosion mechanisms in transparent plastic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitt, G. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

Tests were conducted to determine the damaging effects of rain erosion on optically transparent materials. The rotating arm test equipment used for the tests is described. Typical transparent materials such as those found in windshields, infrared windows, lasers, and television systems were tested. Nominal velocities of 400, 500, and 600 miles per hour and rainfall conditions of one inch per hour simulated rainfall were used in the tests. It was determined that an 80 percent reduction in laser transmittance can occur in plastics submitted to rain erosion. Significant results of the environmental tests are explained.

Do we really use rainfall observations consistent with reality in hydrological modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Moussa, Roger; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2017-04-01

Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall control how water reaches soil surface and interacts with soil properties (i.e., soil wetting, infiltration, saturation). Once a hydrological event is defined by a rainfall with its spatiotemporal variability and by some environmental parameters such as soil properties (including land use, topographic and anthropic features), the evidence shows that each parameter variation produces different, specific outputs (e.g., runoff, flooding etc.). In this study, we focus on the effect of rainfall patterns because, due to the difficulty to dispose of detailed data, their influence in modelling is frequently underestimated or neglected. A rainfall event affects a catchment non uniformly, it is spatially localized and its pattern moves in space and time. The way and the time how the water reaches the soil and saturates it respect to the geometry of the catchment deeply influences soil saturation, runoff, and then sediment delivery. This research, approaching a hypothetical, simple case, aims to stimulate the debate on the reliability of the rainfall quality used in hydrological / soil erosion modelling. We test on a small catchment of the south of France (Roujan, Languedoc Roussillon) the influence of rainfall variability with the use of a HD hybrid hydrological - soil erosion model, combining a cinematic wave with the St. Venant equation and a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, able to quantify the effect of different spatiotemporal patterns of a very-high-definition synthetic rainfall. Results indicate that rainfall spatiotemporal patterns are crucial simulating an erosive event: differences between spatially uniform rainfalls, as frequently adopted in simulations, and some hypothetical rainfall patterns here applied, reveal that the outcome of a simulated event can be highly underestimated.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Baker, R.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Baker, R. D.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

2016-08-01

This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Cubasch, Ulrich

1993-06-01

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique.The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM).The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2 C02' doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, the change is 10 mm/month, with a minimum of 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ("business as usual") increase Of C02, the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.

Simulation and Sensitivity in a Nested Modeling System for South America. Part II: GCM Boundary Forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Maisa; Seth, Anji

2003-08-01

of this study, the RegCM's ability to simulate circulation and rainfall observed in the two extreme seasons was demonstrated when driven at the lateral boundaries by reanalyzed forcing. Seasonal integrations with the RegCM driven by GCM ensemble-derived lateral boundary forcing demonstrate that the nested model responds well to the SST forcing, by capturing the major features of the circulation and rainfall differences between the two years. The GCM-driven model also improves upon the monthly evolution of rainfall compared with that from the GCM. However, the nested model rainfall simulations for the two seasons are degraded compared with those from the reanalyses-driven RegCM integrations. The poor location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the GCM leads to excess rainfall in Nordeste in the nested model.An expanded domain was tested, wherein the RegCM was permitted more internal freedom to respond to SST and regional orographic forcing. Results show that the RegCM is able to improve the location of the ITCZ, and the seasonal evolution of rainfall in Nordeste, the Amazon region, and the southeastern region of Brazil. However, it remains that the limiting factor in the skill of the nested modeling system is the quality of the lateral boundary forcing provided by the global model.

Using a Gaussian Process Emulator for Data-driven Surrogate Modelling of a Complex Urban Drainage Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellos, V.; Mahmoodian, M.; Leopold, U.; Torres-Matallana, J. A.; Schutz, G.; Clemens, F.

2017-12-01

Surrogate models help to decrease the run-time of computationally expensive, detailed models. Recent studies show that Gaussian Process Emulators (GPE) are promising techniques in the field of urban drainage modelling. However, this study focusses on developing a GPE-based surrogate model for later application in Real Time Control (RTC) using input and output time series of a complex simulator. The case study is an urban drainage catchment in Luxembourg. A detailed simulator, implemented in InfoWorks ICM, is used to generate 120 input-output ensembles, from which, 100 are used for training the emulator and 20 for validation of the results. An ensemble of historical rainfall events with 2 hours duration and 10 minutes time steps are considered as the input data. Two example outputs, are selected as wastewater volume and total COD concentration in a storage tank in the network. The results of the emulator are tested with unseen random rainfall events from the ensemble dataset. The emulator is approximately 1000 times faster than the original simulator for this small case study. Whereas the overall patterns of the simulator are matched by the emulator, in some cases the emulator deviates from the simulator. To quantify the accuracy of the emulator in comparison with the original simulator, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the emulator and simulator is calculated for unseen rainfall scenarios. The range of NSE for the case of tank volume is from 0.88 to 0.99 with a mean value of 0.95, whereas for COD is from 0.71 to 0.99 with a mean value of 0.92. The emulator is able to predict the tank volume with higher accuracy as the relationship between rainfall intensity and tank volume is linear. For COD, which has a non-linear behaviour, the predictions are less accurate and more uncertain, in particular when rainfall intensity increases. This predictions were improved by including a larger amount of training data for the higher rainfall intensities. It was observed that, the accuracy of the emulator predictions depends on the ensemble training dataset design and the amount of data fed. Finally, more investigation is required to test the possibility of applying this type of fast emulators for model-based RTC applications in which limited number of inputs and outputs are considered in a short prediction horizon.

Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series on the results of rainfall runoff simulations in urban drainage modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, Stefan; Rohde, Sophia; Schröder, Kai; Belli, Aslan; Maßmann, Stefanie; Schönfeld, Martin; Henkel, Erik; Fuchs, Lothar

2015-04-01

The design of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models requires long, continuous rainfall time series with high temporal resolution. However, suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, usual design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable rainfall data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic rainfall data as input for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. Synthetic rainfall time series of three different precipitation model approaches, - one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model-, are provided for three catchments with different sewer system characteristics in different climate regions in Germany: - Hamburg (northern Germany): maritime climate, mean annual rainfall: 770 mm; combined sewer system length: 1.729 km (City center of Hamburg), storm water sewer system length (Hamburg Harburg): 168 km - Brunswick (Lower Saxony, northern Germany): transitional climate from maritime to continental, mean annual rainfall: 618 mm; sewer system length: 278 km, connected impervious area: 379 ha, height difference: 27 m - Friburg in Brisgau (southern Germany): Central European transitional climate, mean annual rainfall: 908 mm; sewer system length: 794 km, connected impervious area: 1 546 ha, height difference 284 m Hydrodynamic models are set up for each catchment to simulate rainfall runoff processes in the sewer systems. Long term event time series are extracted from the - three different synthetic rainfall time series (comprising up to 600 years continuous rainfall) provided for each catchment and - observed gauge rainfall (reference rainfall) according national hydraulic design standards. The synthetic and reference long term event time series are used as rainfall input for the hydrodynamic sewer models. For comparison of the synthetic rainfall time series against the reference rainfall and against each other the number of - surcharged manholes, - surcharges per manhole, - and the average surcharge volume per manhole are applied as hydraulic performance criteria. The results are discussed and assessed to answer the following questions: - Are the synthetic rainfall approaches suitable to generate high resolution rainfall series and do they produce, - in combination with numerical rainfall runoff models - valid results for design of urban drainage systems? - What are the bounds of uncertainty in the runoff results depending on the synthetic rainfall model and on the climate region? The work is carried out within the SYNOPSE project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Hydraulic properties for interrill erosion on steep slopes using a portable rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Seung Sook; Hwang, Yoonhee; Deog Park, Sang; Yun, Minu; Park, Sangyeon

2017-04-01

The hydraulic parameters for sheet flow on steep slopes have been not frequently measured because the shallow flow depth and slow flow velocity are difficult to measure. In this study hydraulic values of sheet flow were analyzed to evaluate interrill erosion on steep slopes. A portable rainfall simulator was used to conduct interrill erosion test. The kinetic energy of rainfall simulator was obtained by disdrometer being capable of measuring the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops. The sheet flow velocity was determined by the taken time for a dye transferring fixed points using video images. Surface runoff discharge and sediment yield increased with increase of rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and slope steepness. Especially sediment yield was strongly correlated with sheet flow velocity. The maximum velocity of sheet flow was 2.3cm/s under rainfall intensity of 126.8mm/h and slope steepness of 53.2%. The sheet flow was laminar and subcritical flow as the flow Reynolds number and Froude number are respectively the ranges of 10 22 and 0.05 0.25. The roughness coefficient (Manning's n) for sheet flow on steep slopes was relatively large compared to them on the gentle slope. Keywords: Sheet flow velocity; Rainfall simulator; Interrill erosion; Steep slope This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No. 2015R1C1A2A01055469).

Based on the rainfall system platform raindrops research and analysis of pressure loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Gang; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

With the rapid development of China’s military career, land, sea and air force all services and equipment of modern equipment need to be in the rain test, and verify its might suffer during transportation, storage or use a different environment temperature lower water or use underwater, the water is derived from the heavy rain, the wind and rain, sprinkler system, splash water, water wheel, a violent shock waves or use underwater, etcTest the product performance and quality, under the condition of rainfall system platform in the process of development, how to control the raindrops pressure loss becomes the key to whether the system can simulate the real rainfall [1], this paper is according to the rainfall intensity, nozzle flow resistance, meet water flow of rain pressure loss calculation and analysis, and system arrangement of the optimal solution of rainfall is obtained [2].

The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

Climate downscaling over South America for 1971-2000: application in SMAP rainfall-runoff model for Grande River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Felipe das Neves Roque; Alves, José Luis Drummond; Cataldi, Marcio

2018-03-01

This paper aims to validate inflow simulations concerning the present-day climate at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant (AVHP—located on the Grande River Basin) based on the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model. In order to provide rainfall data to the SMAP model, the RegCM regional climate model was also used working with boundary conditions from the MIROC model. Initially, present-day climate simulation performed by RegCM model was analyzed. It was found that, in terms of rainfall, the model was able to simulate the main patterns observed over South America. A bias correction technique was also used and it was essential to reduce mistakes related to rainfall simulation. Comparison between rainfall simulations from RegCM and MIROC showed improvements when the dynamical downscaling was performed. Then, SMAP, a rainfall-runoff hydrological model, was used to simulate inflows at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant. After calibration with observed rainfall, SMAP simulations were evaluated in two different periods from the one used in calibration. During calibration, SMAP captures the inflow variability observed at AVHP. During validation periods, the hydrological model obtained better results and statistics with observed rainfall. However, in spite of some discrepancies, the use of simulated rainfall without bias correction captured the interannual flow variability. However, the use of bias removal in the simulated rainfall performed by RegCM brought significant improvements to the simulation of natural inflows performed by SMAP. Not only the curve of simulated inflow became more similar to the observed inflow, but also the statistics improved their values. Improvements were also noticed in the inflow simulation when the rainfall was provided by the regional climate model compared to the global model. In general, results obtained so far prove that there was an added value in rainfall when regional climate model was compared to global climate model and that data from regional models must be bias-corrected so as to improve their results.

Round versus rectangular: Does the plot shape matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iserloh, Thomas; Bäthke, Lars; Ries, Johannes B.

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are designed to study soil erosion processes and provide urgently needed data for various geomorphological, hydrological and pedological issues. Due to the different conditions and technologies applied, there are several methodological aspects under review of the scientific community, particularly concerning design, procedures and conditions of measurement for infiltration, runoff and soil erosion. Extensive discussions at the Rainfall Simulator Workshop 2011 in Trier and the Splinter Meeting at EGU 2013 "Rainfall simulation: Big steps forward!" lead to the opinion that the rectangular shape is the more suitable plot shape compared to the round plot. A horizontally edging Gerlach trough is installed for sample collection without forming unnatural necks as is found at round or triangle plots. Since most research groups did and currently do work with round plots at the point scale (<1m²), a precise analysis of the differences between the output of round and square plots are necessary. Our hypotheses are: - Round plot shapes disturb surface runoff, unnatural fluvial dynamics for the given plot size such as pool development especially directly at the plot's outlet occur. - A square plot shape prevent these problems. A first comparison between round and rectangular plots (Iserloh et al., 2015) indicates that the rectangular plot could indeed be the more suitable, but the rather ambiguous results make a more elaborate test setup necessary. The laboratory test setup includes the two plot shapes (round, square), a standardised silty substrate and three inclinations (2°, 6°, 12°). The analysis of the laboratory test provide results on the best performance concerning undisturbed surface runoff and soil/water sampling at the plot's outlet. The analysis of the plot shape concerning its influence on runoff and erosion shows that clear methodological standards are necessary in order to make rainfall simulation experiments comparable. Reference: Iserloh, T., Pegoraro, D., Schlösser, A., Thesing, H., Seeger, M., Ries, J.B. (2015): Rainfall simulation experiments: Influence of water temperature, water quality and plot design on soil erosion and runoff. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, EGU2015-5817.

An assessment of the ability of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models to reproduce drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-12-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as a test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis model types studied fail to preserve extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

A copula-based assessment of Bartlett-Lewis type of rainfall models for preserving drought statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M. T.; Vanhaute, W. J.; Vandenberghe, S.; De Baets, B.; Verhoest, N. E. C.

2013-06-01

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e.g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e.g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis type of models studied fail in preserving extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period.

Estimation of debris flow critical rainfall thresholds by a physically-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Ciervo, F.; Bateman, A.

2012-11-01

Real time assessment of debris flow hazard is fundamental for setting up warning systems that can mitigate its risk. A convenient method to assess the possible occurrence of a debris flow is the comparison of measured and forecasted rainfall with rainfall threshold curves (RTC). Empirical derivation of the RTC from the analysis of rainfall characteristics of past events is not possible when the database of observed debris flows is poor or when the environment changes with time. For landslides triggered debris flows, the above limitations may be overcome through the methodology here presented, based on the derivation of RTC from a physically based model. The critical RTC are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations based on the infinite-slope stability model in which land instability is governed by the increase in groundwater pressure due to rainfall. The effect of rainfall infiltration on landside occurrence is modelled trough a reduced form of the Richards equation. The simulations are performed in a virtual basin, representative of the studied basin, taking into account the uncertainties linked with the definition of the characteristics of the soil. A large number of calculations are performed combining different values of the rainfall characteristics (intensity and duration of event rainfall and intensity of antecedent rainfall). For each combination of rainfall characteristics, the percentage of the basin that is unstable is computed. The obtained database is opportunely elaborated to derive RTC curves. The methodology is implemented and tested on a small basin of the Amalfi Coast (South Italy).

Vallerani Micro-Catchment Infiltration Dynamics and Erosion from Simulated Rainfall and Concentrated Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founds, M. J.; McGwire, K.; Weltz, M.

2017-12-01

Critical research gaps in rangeland hydrology still exist on the impact of conservation practices on erosion and subsequent mobilization of dissolved solids to streams. This study develops the scientific foundation necessary to better understand how a restoration strategy using a Vallerani Plow can be optimized to minimize erosion from rainfall impact and concentrated flow. Use of the Vallerani system has been proposed for use in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), where rapidly eroding rangelands contribute high salt loads to the Colorado River at a significant economic cost. The poster presentation will document the findings from a series of physical rainfall and concentrated flow simulations taking place at an experimental site northeast of Reno, NV in early August. A Walnut Gulch Rainfall simulator is used to apply variable intensity and duration rainfall events to micro-catchment structures created by the Vallerani Plow. The erosion and deposition caused by simulated rainfall will be captured from multi-angle photography using structure from motion (SFM) to create sub-centimeter 3-D models between each rainfall event. A rill-simulator also will be used to apply large volumes of concentrated flow to Vallerani micro-catchments, testing the point at which their infiltration capacity is exceeded and micro-catchments are overtopped. This information is important to adequately space structures on a given hillslope so that chances of failure are minimized. Measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity and sorptivity from a Guelph Permeameter will be compared to the experimental results in order to develop an efficient method for surveying new terrain for treatment with the Vallerani plow. The effect of micro-catchments on surface flow and erosion will eventually be incorporated into the process-based Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) to create a tool that provides decision makers with quantitative estimates of potential reductions in erosion when using the Vallerani System to restore highly erosive rangelands within the UCRB.

Comparison of different types of medium scale field rainfall simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dostál, Tomáš; Strauss, Peter; Schindewolf, Marcus; Kavka, Petr; Schmidt, Jürgen; Bauer, Miroslav; Neumann, Martin; Kaiser, Andreas; Iserloh, Thomas

2015-04-01

Rainfall simulators are used in numerous experiments to study runoff and soil erosion characteristics. However, they usually differ in their construction details, rainfall generation, plot size and other technical parameters. As field experiments using medium to large scale rainfall simulators (plot length 3 - 8 m) are very much time and labor consuming, close cooperation of individual teams and comparability of results is highly desirable to enlarge the database of results. Two experimental campaigns were organized to compare three field rainfall simulators of similar scale (plot size), but with different technical parameters. The results were then compared, to identify parameters that are crucial for soil loss and surface runoff formation and test if results from individual devices can be reliably compared. The rainfall simulators compared were: field rainfall simulator of CTU Prague (the Czech Republic) (Kavka et al., 2012; EGU2015-11025), field simulator of BAW (Austria) (Strauss et al., 2002) and field simulator of TU Bergakademie Freiberg (Germany) (Schindewolf & Schmidt 2012). The device of CTU Prague is usually applied to a plot size of 9,5 x 2 m employing 4 nozzles SS Full Jet 40WSQ mounted on folding arm, working pressure is 0.8 bar, height of nozzles is 2.65 m. The intensity of rainfall is regulated electronically, which leaves the nozzle opened only for certain time. The rainfall simulator of BAW is constructed as a modular system, which is usually applied for a length of 5 m (area 2 x 5 m), using 6 nozzles SS Full Jet 40WSQ. Usual working pressure is 0.25 bar. Elevation of nozzles is 2.6 m. The intensity of rainfall is regulated electronically, which leaves the nozzle opened only for certain time. The device of TU Bergakademie Freiberg is also standard modular system, working usually with a plot size of 3 x 1 m, using 3 oscillating VeeJet 80/100 nozzles with an usual operating pressure of 0.5 bar. Intensity is regulated by the frequency of sweeps above the experimental plot. Comparison was done during two independent campaigns, where always two devices were present. Rainfall intensity for the experiments varied between 40 to 60 mm/h. Mutual comparison was carried out between the CTU Prague and TU Freiberg RSs at plot size of 3 x 1 m and Between CTU Prague and BAW RSs at plot size of 5 x 2 m. In general, the experiments revealed a significant effect of potential heterogeneities at the experimental plots and an effect of raindrop energy on both surface runoff formation and mainly soil loss. Therefore, coordination of methodology of the experiments and careful control of initial conditions seem to be a crucial point for comparability of results from individual devices. Detailed results will be presented on the poster. The research has been supported by the research grants SGS14/180/OHK1/3T/11, QJ1230056 and 7AMB14AT020. References Kavka, P., Davidová, T., Janotová, B., Bauer, M. a Dostál, T. 2012. Mobilní dešťový simulátor.(in Czech), Stavební obzor. 8, 2012. Schindewolf, M. & J. Schmidt (2012): Parameterization of the EROSION 2D/3D soil erosion model using a small-scale rainfall simulator and upstream runoff simulation, Catena 91, pp. 47-55, DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2011.01.007 Strauss P., J.Pitty, M.Pfeffer, A. Mentler (2000): Rainfall Simulation for Outdoor Experiments. In: P. Jamet, J. Cornejo(eds.): Current research methods to assess the environmental fate of pesticides. pp. 329-333, INRA Editions.

Small scale rainfall simulators: Challenges for a future use in soil erosion research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ries, Johannes B.; Iserloh, Thomas; Seeger, Manuel

2013-04-01

Rainfall simulation on micro-plot scale is a method used worldwide to assess the generation of overland flow, soil erosion, infiltration and interrelated processes such as soil sealing, crusting, splash and redistribution of solids and solutes. The produced data are of great significance not only for the analysis of the simulated processes, but also as a source of input-data for soil erosion modelling. The reliability of the data is therefore of paramount importance, and quality management of rainfall simulation procedure a general responsibility of the rainfall simulation community. This was an accepted outcome at the "International Rainfall Simulator Workshop 2011" at Trier University. The challenges of the present and near future use of small scale rainfall simulations concern the comparability of results and scales, the quality of the data for soil erosion modelling, and further technical developments to overcome physical limitations and constraints. Regarding the high number of research questions, different fields of application, and due to the great technical creativity of researchers, a large number of different types of rainfall simulators is available. But each of the devices produces a different rainfall, leading to different kinetic energy values influencing soil surface and erosion processes. Plot sizes are also variable, as well as the experimental simulation procedures. As a consequence, differing runoff and erosion results are produced. The presentation summarises the three important aspects of rainfall simulations, following a processual order: 1. Input-factor "rain" and its calibration 2. Surface-factor "plot" and its documentation 3. Output-factors "runoff" and "sediment concentration" Finally, general considerations about the limitations and challenges for further developments and applications of rainfall simulation data are presented.

Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Cubasch, U.

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique. The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It ismore » shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM). The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous [open quotes]2 CO[sub 2][close quotes] doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of I mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the lberian Peninsula, the change is - 10 mm/month, with a minimum of - 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ([open quotes]business as usual[close quotes]) increase of CO[sub 2], the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different. 17 refs., 10 figs.« less

Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

2015-09-01

Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the watershed is remarkably improved up to 50% in comparison to the simulations by the individual models. Results indicate that the developed methodology not only provides reliable tools for rainfall and runoff modeling, but also adequate time for incorporating required mitigation measures in dealing with potentially extreme runoff events and flood hazard. Results of this study can be used in identification of the main factors affecting flood hazard analysis.

49 CFR 173.465 - Type A packaging tests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., with contents, must be capable of withstanding the water spray, free drop, stacking and penetration... paragraph (b) of this section are met. (b) Water spray test. The water spray test must precede each test or test sequence prescribed in this section. The water spray test must simulate exposure to rainfall of...

Scaling laws for testing of high lift airfoils under heavy rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilanin, A. J.

1985-01-01

The results of studies regarding the effect of rainfall about aircraft are briefly reviewed. It is found that performance penalties on airfoils have been identified in subscale tests. For this reason, it is of great importance that scaling laws be dveloped to aid in the extrapolation of these data to fullscale. The present investigation represents an attempt to develop scaling laws for testing subscale airfoils under heavy rain conditions. Attention is given to rain statistics, airfoil operation in heavy rain, scaling laws, thermodynamics of condensation and/or evaporation, rainfall and airfoil scaling, aspects of splash back, film thickness, rivulets, and flap slot blockage. It is concluded that the extrapolation of airfoil performance data taken at subscale under simulated heavy rain conditions to fullscale must be undertaken with caution.

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Rainfall simulation experiments in ecological and conventional vineyards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adrian, Alexander; Brings, Christine; Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Iserloh, Thomas; Ries, Johannes B.

2015-04-01

In October 2014, the Trier University started a measurement series, which defines, compares and evaluates the behavior of runoff and soil erosion with different farming productions in vineyards. The research area is located in Kanzem, a traditional wine village in the Saar Valley (Rheinland-Palatinate, Germany). The test fields show different cultivation methods: ecological (with natural vegetation cover under and around the vines) and conventional cultivated rows of wine. By using the small portable rainfall simulator of Trier University it shall be proved if the assumption that there is more runoff and soil erosion in the conventional part than in the ecological part of the tillage system. Rainfall simulations assess the generation of overland flow, soil erosion and infiltration. So, a trend of soil erosion and runoff of the different cultivation techniques are noted. The objective of this work is to compare the geomorphological dynamics of two different tillage systems. Therefore, 30 rainfall simulations plots were evenly distributed on a west exposition hillside with different slope angels (8-25°), vegetation- and stone-covers. In concrete, the plot surface reaches from strongly covered soil across lithoidal surfaces to bare soil often with compacted lanes of typical using machines. In addition, by using the collected substrate, an estimation and distribution of the grain size of the eroded material shall be given. The eroded substrate is compared to soil samples of the test plots. The first results have shown that there is slightly more runoff and soil erosion in the ecological area than on the conventional part of the vineyard.

Simulating transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in a Cambisol after natural and simulated intense rainfall.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Vander; Pinheiro, Adilson; Castro, Nilza Maria dos Reis

2014-05-01

Intense rainfall adversely affects agricultural areas, causing transport of pollutants. Physically-based hydrological models to simulate flows of water and chemical substances can be used to help decision-makers adopt measures which reduce such problems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of SWAP and ANIMO models for simulating transport of water, nitrate and phosphorus nutrients, during intense rainfall events generated by a simulator, and during natural rainfall, on a volumetric drainage lysimeter. The models were calibrated and verified using daily time series and simulated rainfall measured at 10-minute intervals. For daily time-intervals, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.865 for the calibration period and 0.805 for verification. Under simulated rainfall, these coefficients were greater than 0.56. The pattern of both nitrate and phosphate concentrations in daily drainage flow under simulated rainfall was acceptably reproduced by the ANIMO model. In the simulated rainfall, loads of nitrate transported in surface runoff varied between 0.08 and 8.46 kg ha(-1), and in drainage form the lysimeter, between 2.44 and 112.57 kg ha(-1). In the case of phosphate, the loads transported in surface runoff varied between 0.002 and 0.504 kg ha(-1), and in drainage, between 0.005 and 1.107 kg ha(-1). The use of the two models SWAP and ANIMO shows the magnitudes of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes transported by natural and simulated intense rainfall in an agricultural area with different soil management procedures, as required by decision makers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

2017-12-01

Nowadays, rainfall simulators are being used by many researchers in field or laboratory experiments. The main objective of most of these experiments is to better understand the underlying runoff generation processes, and to use the results in the process of calibration and validation of hydrological models. Many research groups have assembled their own rainfall simulators, which comply with their understanding of rainfall processes, and the requirements of their experiments. Most often, the existing rainfall simulators differ mainly in the size of the irrigated area, and the way they generate rain drops. They can be characterized by the accuracy, with which they produce a rainfall of a given intensity, the size of the irrigated area, and the rain drop generating mechanism. Rainfall simulation experiments can provide valuable information about the genesis of surface runoff, infiltration of water into soil and rainfall erodibility. Apart from the impact of physical properties of soil, its moisture and compaction on the generation of surface runoff and the amount of eroded particles, some studies also investigate the impact of vegetation cover of the whole area of interest. In this study, the rainfall simulator was used to simulate the impact of the slope gradient of the irrigated area on the amount of generated runoff and sediment yield. In order to eliminate the impact of external factors and to improve the reproducibility of the initial conditions, the experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions. The laboratory experiments were carried out using a commercial rainfall simulator, which was connected to an external peristaltic pump. The pump maintained a constant and adjustable inflow of water, which enabled to overcome the maximum volume of simulated precipitation of 2.3 l, given by the construction of the rainfall simulator, while maintaining constant characteristics of the simulated precipitation. In this study a 12-minute rainfall with a constant intensity of 5 mm/min was used to irrigate a corrupted soil sample. The experiment was undertaken for several different slopes, under the condition of no vegetation cover. The results of the rainfall simulation experiment complied with the expectations of a strong relationship between the slope gradient, and the amount of surface runoff generated. The experiments with higher slope gradients were characterised by larger volumes of surface runoff generated, and by shorter times after which it occurred. The experiments with rainfall simulators in both laboratory and field conditions play an important role in better understanding of runoff generation processes. The results of such small scale experiments could be used to estimate some of the parameters of complex hydrological models, which are used to model rainfall-runoff and erosion processes at catchment scale.

Toward an operational tool to simulate green roof hydrological impact at the basin scale: a new version of the distributed rainfall-runoff model Multi-Hydro.

PubMed

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Gires, Auguste; Tchinguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2016-10-01

Currently widespread in new urban projects, green roofs have shown a positive impact on urban runoff at the building scale: decrease and slow-down of the peak discharge, and decrease of runoff volume. The present work aims to study their possible impact at the catchment scale, more compatible with stormwater management issues. For this purpose, a specific module dedicated to simulating the hydrological behaviour of a green roof has been developed in the distributed rainfall-runoff model (Multi-Hydro). It has been applied on a French urban catchment where most of the building roofs are flat and assumed to accept the implementation of a green roof. Catchment responses to several rainfall events covering a wide range of meteorological situations have been simulated. The simulation results show green roofs can significantly reduce runoff volume and the magnitude of peak discharge (up to 80%) depending on the rainfall event and initial saturation of the substrate. Additional tests have been made to assess the susceptibility of this response regarding both spatial distributions of green roofs and precipitation. It appears that the total area of greened roofs is more important than their locations. On the other hand, peak discharge reduction seems to be clearly dependent on spatial distribution of precipitation.

Measurement accuracy of weighing and tipping-bucket rainfall intensity gauges under dynamic laboratory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.; Chan, P. W.

2014-07-01

The contribution of any single uncertainty factor in the resulting performance of infield rain gauge measurements still has to be comprehensively assessed due to the high number of real world error sources involved, such as the intrinsic variability of rainfall intensity (RI), wind effects, wetting losses, the ambient temperature, etc. In recent years the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) addressed these issues by fostering dedicated investigations, which revealed further difficulties in assessing the actual reference rainfall intensity in the field. This work reports on an extensive assessment of the OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge accuracy when measuring rainfall intensity under laboratory dynamic conditions (time varying reference flow rates). The results obtained from the weighing rain gauge (WG) were also compared with a MTX tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBR) under the same test conditions. Tests were carried out by simulating various artificial precipitation events, with unsteady rainfall intensity, using a suitable dynamic rainfall generator. Real world rainfall data measured by an Ogawa catching-type drop counter at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were used as a reference for the artificial rain generation system. Results demonstrate that the differences observed between the laboratory and field performance of catching-type gauges are only partially attributable to the weather and operational conditions in the field. The dynamics of real world precipitation events is responsible for a large part of the measurement errors, which can be accurately assessed in the laboratory under controlled environmental conditions. This allows for new testing methodologies and the development of instruments with enhanced performance in the field.

Determining erosion relevant soil characteristics with a small-scale rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, M.; Schmidt, J.

2009-04-01

The use of soil erosion models is of great importance in soil and water conservation. Routine application of these models on the regional scale is not at least limited by the high parameter demands. Although the EROSION 3D simulation model is operating with a comparable low number of parameters, some of the model input variables could only be determined by rainfall simulation experiments. The existing data base of EROSION 3D was created in the mid 90s based on large-scale rainfall simulation experiments on 22x2m sized experimental plots. Up to now this data base does not cover all soil and field conditions adequately. Therefore a new campaign of experiments would be essential to produce additional information especially with respect to the effects of new soil management practices (e.g. long time conservation tillage, non tillage). The rainfall simulator used in the actual campaign consists of 30 identic modules, which are equipped with oscillating rainfall nozzles. Veejet 80/100 (Spraying Systems Co., Wheaton, IL) are used in order to ensure best possible comparability to natural rainfalls with respect to raindrop size distribution and momentum transfer. Central objectives of the small-scale rainfall simulator are - effectively application - provision of comparable results to large-scale rainfall simulation experiments. A crucial problem in using the small scale simulator is the restriction on rather small volume rates of surface runoff. Under this conditions soil detachment is governed by raindrop impact. Thus impact of surface runoff on particle detachment cannot be reproduced adequately by a small-scale rainfall simulator With this problem in mind this paper presents an enhanced small-scale simulator which allows a virtual multiplication of the plot length by feeding additional sediment loaded water to the plot from upstream. Thus is possible to overcome the plot length limited to 3m while reproducing nearly similar flow conditions as in rainfall experiments on standard plots. The simulator is extensively applied to plots of different soil types, crop types and management systems. The comparison with existing data sets obtained by large-scale rainfall simulations show that results can adequately be reproduced by the applied combination of small-scale rainfall simulator and sediment loaded water influx.

[Effects of rainfall intensity on rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on Loess slope land].

PubMed

Li, Yi; Shao, Ming'an

2006-12-01

With simulation test, this paper studied the patterns of rainfall infiltration and redistribution in soil on typical Loess slope land, and analyzed the quantitative relations between the infiltration and redistribution and the movement of soil water and mass, with rainfall intensity as the main affecting factor. The results showed that rainfall intensity had significant effects on the rainfall infiltration and water redistribution in soil, and the microcosmic movement of soil water. The larger the rainfall intensity, the deeper the wetting front of rainfall infiltration and redistribution was, and the wetting front of soil water redistribution had a slower increase velocity than that of rainfall infiltration. The power function of the wetting front with time, and also with rainfall intensity, was fitted well. There was also a quantitative relation between the wetting front of rainfall redistribution and the duration of rainfall. The larger the rainfall intensity, the higher the initial and steady infiltration rates were, and the cumulative infiltration increased faster with time. Moreover, the larger the rainfall intensity, the smaller the wetting front difference was at the top and the end of the slope. With the larger rainfall intensity, both the difference of soil water content and its descending trend between soil layers became more obvious during the redistribution process on slope land.

Performance and efficiency of geotextile-supported erosion control measures during simulated rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obriejetan, Michael; Rauch, Hans Peter; Florineth, Florin

2013-04-01

Erosion control systems consisting of technical and biological components are widely accepted and proven to work well if installed properly with regard to site-specific parameters. A wide range of implementation measures for this specific protection purpose is existent and new, in particular technical solutions are constantly introduced into the market. Nevertheless, especially vegetation aspects of erosion control measures are frequently disregarded and should be considered enhanced against the backdrop of the development and realization of adaptation strategies in an altering environment due to climate change associated effects. Technical auxiliaries such as geotextiles typically used for slope protection (nettings, blankets, turf reinforcement mats etc.) address specific features and due to structural and material diversity, differing effects on sediment yield, surface runoff and vegetational development seem evident. Nevertheless there is a knowledge gap concerning the mutual interaction processes between technical and biological components respectively specific comparable data on erosion-reducing effects of technical-biological erosion protection systems are insufficient. In this context, an experimental arrangement was set up to study the correlated influences of geotextiles and vegetation and determine its (combined) effects on surface runoff and soil loss during simulated heavy rainfall events. Sowing vessels serve as testing facilities which are filled with top soil under application of various organic and synthetic geotextiles and by using a reliable drought resistant seed mixture. Regular vegetational monitoring as well as two rainfall simulation runs with four repetitions of each variant were conducted. Therefore a portable rainfall simulator with standardized rainfall intensity of 240 mm h-1 and three minute rainfall duration was used to stress these systems on different stages of plant development at an inclination of 30 degrees. First results show significant differences between the systems referring to sediment yield and runoff amount respectively vegetation development.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the South of France Using EURO-CORDEX Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, L. N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.

2017-12-01

The Mediterranean region regularly undergoes episodes of intense precipitation in the fall season that exceed 300mm a day. This study focuses on the role of climate change on the dynamics of the events that occur in the South of France. We used an ensemble of 10 EURO-CORDEX model simulations with two horizontal resolutions (EUR-11: 0.11° and EUR-44: 0.44°) for the attribution of extreme rainfall in the fall in the Cevennes mountain range (South of France). The biases of the simulations were corrected with simple scaling adjustment and a quantile correction (CDFt). This produces five datasets including EUR-44 and EUR-11 with and without scaling adjustment and CDFt-EUR-11, on which we test the impact of resolution and bias correction on the extremes. Those datasets, after pooling all of models together, are fitted by a stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution for several periods to estimate a climate change signal in the tail of distribution of extreme rainfall in the Cévenne region. Those changes are then interpreted by a scaling model that links extreme rainfall with mean and maximum daily temperature. The results show that higher-resolution simulations with bias adjustment provide a robust and confident increase of intensity and likelihood of occurrence of autumn extreme rainfall in the area in current climate in comparison with historical climate. The probability (exceedance probability) of 1-in-1000-year event in historical climate may increase by a factor of 1.8 under current climate with a confident interval of 0.4 to 5.3 following the CDFt bias-adjusted EUR-11. The change of magnitude appears to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relation that indicates a 7% increase in rainfall per 1oC increase in temperature.

Rainfall simulation experiments in the Southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch rainfall simulator

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semi-arid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30% of the plots simulations were conducted up to five time...

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of African ecosystem physiognomy, i.e. savannas, woodlands, and tropical forests.

Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

2017-04-01

We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall variability. Our study contributes to the scientific community of earth sciences and the ongoing debate on extreme precipitation in a changing climate by making a stable, and very easily applicable, multi-site rainfall generation code available to the research community and providing a better understanding of the performance of multi-site rainfall generation depending on spatial scales and climatic conditions.

Soil erosion predictions from a landscape evolution model - An assessment of a post-mining landform using spatial climate change analogues.

PubMed

Hancock, G R; Verdon-Kidd, D; Lowry, J B C

2017-12-01

Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently risk not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in both the near and far future. One issue is that high resolution (both spatial and temporal) rainfall projections incorporating the potential effects of greenhouse forcing are required as input. However, projections of rainfall change are still highly uncertain for many regions, particularly at sub annual/seasonal scales. This is the case for northern Australia, where a decrease or an increase in rainfall post 2030 is considered equally likely based on climate model simulations. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate a spatial analogue approach to develop point scale hourly rainfall scenarios to be used as input to the CAESAR - Lisflood LEM to test the sensitivity of the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform to potential changes in climate. Importantly, the scenarios incorporate the range of projected potential increase/decrease in rainfall for northern Australia and capture the expected envelope of erosion rates and erosion patterns (i.e. where erosion and deposition occurs) over a 100year modelled period. We show that all rainfall scenarios produce sediment output and gullying greater than that of the surrounding natural system, however a 'wetter' future climate produces the highest output. Importantly, incorporating analogue rainfall scenarios into LEM has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software. Further, the method can be easily transferred to other sites (both nationally and internationally) where rainfall variability is significant and climate change impacts are uncertain. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Planting Patterns and Deficit Irrigation Strategies to Improve Wheat Production and Water Use Efficiency under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

PubMed Central

Ali, Shahzad; Xu, Yueyue; Ma, Xiangcheng; Ahmad, Irshad; Kamran, Muhammad; Dong, Zhaoyun; Cai, Tie; Jia, Qianmin; Ren, Xiaolong; Zhang, Peng; Jia, Zhikuan

2017-01-01

The ridge furrow (RF) rainwater harvesting system is an efficient way to enhance rainwater accessibility for crops and increase winter wheat productivity in semi-arid regions. However, the RF system has not been promoted widely in the semi-arid regions, which primarily exist in remote hilly areas. To exploit its efficiency on a large-scale, the RF system needs to be tested at different amounts of simulated precipitation combined with deficit irrigation. Therefore, in during the 2015–16 and 2016–17 winter wheat growing seasons, we examined the effects of two planting patterns: (1) the RF system and (2) traditional flat planting (TF) with three deficit irrigation levels (150, 75, 0 mm) under three simulated rainfall intensity (1: 275, 2: 200, 3: 125 mm), and determined soil water storage profile, evapotranspiration rate, grain filling rate, biomass, grain yield, and net economic return. Over the two study years, the RF treatment with 200 mm simulated rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation (RF2150) significantly (P < 0.05) increased soil water storage in the depth of (200 cm); reduced ET at the field scale by 33%; increased total dry matter accumulation per plant; increased the grain-filling rate; and improved biomass (11%) and grain (19%) yields. The RF2150 treatment thus achieved a higher WUE (76%) and RIWP (21%) compared to TF. Grain-filling rates, grain weight of superior and inferior grains, and net economic profit of winter wheat responded positively to simulated rainfall and deficit irrigation under both planting patterns. The 200 mm simulated rainfall amount was more economical than other precipitation amounts, and led to slight increases in soil water storage, total dry matter per plant, and grain yield; there were no significant differences when the simulated rainfall was increased beyond 200 mm. The highest (12,593 Yuan ha−1) net income profit was attained using the RF system at 200 mm rainfall and 150 mm deficit irrigation, which also led to significantly higher grain yield, WUE, and RIWP than all other treatments. Thus, we recommend the RF2150 treatment for higher productivity, income profit, and improve WUE in the dry-land farming system of China. PMID:28878787

Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling

2017-11-01

Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

Convective Systems over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R. H.; Ciesielski, P. E.

2003-12-01

The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18 26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2 11 June (after the onset of the monsoon) 1998]. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum are used as the main forcing in governing the GCE model in a semiprognostic manner. The June SCSMEX case has stronger forcing in both temperature and water vapor, stronger low-level vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and larger convective available potential energy (CAPE).The temporal variation of the model-simulated rainfall, time- and domain-averaged heating, and moisture budgets compares well to those diagnostically determined from soundings. However, the model results have a higher temporal variability. The model underestimates the rainfall by 17% to 20% compared to that based on soundings. The GCE model-simulated rainfall for June is in very good agreement with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), precipitation radar (PR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Overall, the model agrees better with observations for the June case rather than the May case.The model-simulated energy budgets indicate that the two largest terms for both cases are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening). These two terms are opposite in sign, however. The model results also show that there are more latent heat fluxes for the May case. However, more rainfall is simulated for the June case. Net radiation (solar heating and longwave cooling) are about 34% and 25%, respectively, of the net condensation (condensation minus evaporation) for the May and June cases. Sensible heat fluxes do not contribute to rainfall in either of the SCSMEX cases. Two types of organized convective systems, unicell (May case) and multicell (June case), are simulated by the model. They are determined by the observed mean U wind shear (unidirectional versus reverse shear profiles above midlevels).Several sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of the radiation, microphysics, and large-scale mean horizontal wind on the organization and intensity of the SCSMEX convective systems.

Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on the density of the rain gauge network and its distribution relative to the precipitation events. The results for the 84 storms show a better model skill using radar QPE than the interpolated fields. Results using interpolated fields are highly affected by the dominant rainfall type and the basin scale.

The Impact of TRMM on Mesoscale Model Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Jia, Y.; Halverson, J.; Hou, A.; Olson, W.; Rodgers, E.; Simpson, J.

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone Paka formed during the first week of December 1997 and underwent three periods of rapid intensification over the following two weeks. During one of these periods, which initiated early on December 10, Paka's Dvorak-measured windspeed increased from 23 to 60 m/s over a 48-hr period. On December 18, during the last rapid deepening episode, Paka became a supertyphoon with a maximum wind speed of about 80 m/s. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (135, 45 and 15 km horizontal resolution) will be used to simulate supertyphoon Paka. We performed two runs initialized with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data sets. The first GEOS data set does not incorporate either TRMM (tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite) or SSM/I (sensor microwave imager) observed rainfall fields into the GEOS's assimilation system while the second one does. Preliminary results show that the MM5 simulated surface pressure deepened by more than 25 mb (45 km resolution domain) in the run initialized with the GEOS data set incorporating TRMM and SSM/I derived rainfall, compared to the one initialized without. However, the track and precipitation patterns are quite similar between the runs. In our presentation, we will show the impact of TRMM rainfall upon the MM5 simulation of Paka at various horizontal resolutions. We will also examine the physical processes associated with initial explosive development by comparing MM5 simulated rainfall and latent heat release. In addition, budget (vorticity, PV, momentum and heat) calculations and sensitivity tests will be performed to examine the upper-tropospheric and SST mechanisms responsible for the explosive development of Paka.

Characterization of rainfall-runoff response and estimation of the effect of wetland restoration on runoff, Heron Lake Basin, southwestern Minnesota, 1991-97

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.; Winterstein, Thomas A.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and the Heron Lake Watershed District, conducted a study to characterize the rainfall-runoff response and to examine the effects of wetland restoration on the rainfall-runoff response within the Heron Lake Basin in southwestern Minnesota. About 93 percent of the land cover in the Heron Lake Basin consists of agricultural lands, consisting almost entirely of row crops, with less than one percent consisting of wetlands. The Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran (HSPF), Version 10, was calibrated to continuous discharge data and used to characterize rainfall-runoff responses in the Heron Lake Basin between May 1991 and August 1997. Simulation of the Heron Lake Basin was done as a two-step process: (1) simulations of five small subbasins using data from August 1995 through August 1997, and (2) simulations of the two large basins, Jack and Okabena Creek Basins, using data from May 1991 through September 1996. Simulations of the five small subbasins was done to determine basin parameters for the land segments and assess rainfall-runoff response variability in the basin. Simulations of the two larger basins were done to verify the basin parameters and assess rainfall-runoff responses over a larger area and for a longer time period. Best-fit calibrations of the five subbasin simulations indicate that the rainfall-runoff response is uniform throughout the Heron Lake Basin, and 48 percent of the total rainfall for storms becomes direct (surface and interflow) runoff. Rainfall-runoff response variations result from variations in the distribution, intensity, timing, and duration of rainfall; soil moisture; evapotranspiration rates; and the presence of lakes in the basin. In the spring, the amount and distribution of rainfall tends to govern the runoff response. High evapotranspiration rates in the summer result in a depletion of moisture from the soils, substantially affecting the rainfall-runoff relation. Five wetland restoration simulations were run for each of five subbasins using data from August 1995 through August 1997, and for the two larger basins, Jack and Okabena Creek Basins, using data from May 1991 through September 1996. Results from linear regression analysis of total simulated direct runoff and total rainfall data for simulated storms in the wetland-restoration simulations indicate that the portion of total rainfall that becomes runoff will be reduced by 46 percent if 45 percent of current cropland is converted to wetland. The addition of wetlands reduced peak runoff in most of the simulations, but the reduction varied with antecedent soil moisture, the magnitude of the peak flow, and the presence of current wetlands and lakes. Reductions in the simulated total and peak runoff from the Jack Creek Basin for most of the simulated storms were greatest when additional wetlands were simulated in the North Branch Jack Creek or the Upper Jack Creek Subbasins. In the Okabena Creek Basin, reductions in simulated peak runoff for most of the storms were greatest when additional wetlands were simulated in the Lower Okabena Creek Subbasin.

Runoff and soil loss under different land management practices in vineyards: grass cover treatments and traditional tillage. Results from simulated rainfall.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Colmenero, Marta; Bienes, Ramon; Marques, Maria-Jose

2010-05-01

Land degradation control is crucial in croplands located in semiarid lands, due to its low soil formation rate, above all in slope fields. This study is located in the South East of Madrid (Spain), in a vineyard at 800 masl under Mediterranean semiarid climatic conditions, with an average slope of 14%. We studied the impact of traditional tillage measuring runoff and soil loss in plots in two critical moments of the vineyard crop: summer with dry soil, and fall when tillage is done in order to facilitate the infiltration of winter rainfalĺs water. Three treatments were tested in nine erosion plots (4m x 0,5m): traditional tillage ("till"); Brachypodium distachyon (L.) ("bra") allowing self-sowing; Secale cereale ("sec"), mown in early spring. Short (15 minutes) but intense (2,16 mm/min) simulated rainfalls were carried out at each plot: The simulated rainfalls made in summer over the vineyard tilled in spring ("till") produced little runoff (41 ml min-1; erosion rate of 0.24 g m-2) and it lasted 6 min from the start of the shower, it was due to the roughness and because the soil was near its wilting point. The low erosion rate is attributable to the sealing of soil after the rains occurred in spring. In treatments with plant cover runoff began earlier, at the 3rd minute. The average runoff was 516 and 730 ml min-1 and erosion rates were 3.04 g m-2 and 1.41 g m-2 in "bra" and "sec" respectively. There were significant differences (F = 31.6, P <0.001) in runoff coefficient between the three treatments with the highest ratio shown in "sec". The average runoff coefficients obtained were 16% in "sec", 13% in "bra" and 1.4% in "till". Moreover two simulated rainfalls were carried out in autumn in order to test the effect of the autumnal traditional tillage. The plant cover treatments were efficient controlling the erosion (sediment yield were in "till"; "sec" and "bra" respectively 2.66, 0. 29, 0. 11 g m-2 in the first simulation, and 11.67, 0.66, 0.14 g m-2 in the second simulation). Before tillage the average runoff coefficient in "till" was 19% (six times higher than in plant cover treatments) probably because of its sealing and compaction due to the lack of plants. After tillage, in spite of the increase of roughness, and on the contrary to obtained in summer, the runoff increases. It is explained by the soil moisture: In the first simulated rainfall, the soil was 72% of its water holding capacity at 10 cm, and 44% at 35 cm soil depth. However, in the second simulated rainfall the surface was completely wet, and at 35 cm it reached the 85% of water holding capacity. Comparing the runoff and erosion behavior in each treatment for both seasons, it is shown that in summer a shallow tillage increases the infiltration significantly. However in autumn, when the soil is wetter, the tillage increases runoff and erosion significantly. This has to be taken into account in order to change traditional uses in steep crops. Keywords: erosion, runoff, simulated rainfall, vineyard, tillage, vegetable cover Aknowledgements: Projects FP06-DR3 IMIDRA and RTA2007-0086 INIA. Predoctoral grant from INIA. Bodegas and Viñedos Gosálbez-Ortí.

On the estimate of the Vegetation effects on the surface runoff through a plot scale rainfall simulator in Sardinia, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Cortis, C.; Albertson, J. D.

2012-04-01

In semi-arid regions with the Mediterranean climate of cool, wet winters and hot, dry summers, precipitation timing and amount, vegetation growth, and surface runoff are tightly intertwined. In the experimental site of Sardinia, the main source of water is surface reservoirs that are recharged by surface runoff in the rainy winter season. However, changes in climate are expected to bring both an overall decrease in winter precipitation and increased interannual variability of precipitation to this region. These changes may affect characteristics of the water-limited vegetation growth such as timing and production, and consequently change the amount of overland flow and reservoir recharge. Currently, there is little research on the combination of these effects; therefore, the goal of this research is to assess the runoff response of the land surface with varying vegetation states to ultimately predict how changes in the climate of Mediterranean watersheds may affect the needs of water resource management. A 4 m by 4 m rainfall simulator was designed, constructed, and tested as the first stage of this research. The rainfall simulator consisted of four independent lines of low-cost pressure washing nozzles operated at a pressure of 80 mbar, with the number of nozzles determining the rainfall intensity delivered to the plot. The rainfall intensity of the simulator varies from approximately 26 to 52 mm/h with a coefficient of uniformity ranging from 0.40 to 0.59. Measurements taken include surface runoff using a tipping bucket flow meter and soil moisture throughout the plot. Literature models for surface runoff predictions (Philips, Horton, Green Ampt, Soil conservation Service model, bucket model) are widely tested highlighting the typical hortonian behavior of this soil. The simulator was used to monitor changes in the surface runoff throughout the seasons (July 2010, August 2010, June 2011, July 2011, December 2011, January 2012) as the vegetation changes. Results shows the great impact of changes in vegetation cover on soil runoff processes: the increase of LAI from values of 0 to 1.5 produces a decrease of surface runoff of the 50%.

A simple stochastic rainstorm generator for simulating spatially and temporally varying rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Michaelides, K.; Nichols, M.; Nearing, M. A.

2016-12-01

In semi-arid to arid drainage basins, rainstorms often control both water supply and flood risk to marginal communities of people. They also govern the availability of water to vegetation and other ecological communities, as well as spatial patterns of sediment, nutrient, and contaminant transport and deposition on local to basin scales. All of these landscape responses are sensitive to changes in climate that are projected to occur throughout western North America. Thus, it is important to improve characterization of rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at spatial scales below that of existing gauging networks and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple, stochastic rainstorm generator that was created using data from a rich and dense network of rain gauges at the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in SE Arizona, but which is applicable anywhere. We describe our methods for assembling pdfs of relevant rainstorm characteristics including total annual rainfall, storm area, storm center location, and storm duration. We also generate five fitted intensity-duration curves and apply a spatial rainfall gradient to generate precipitation at spatial scales below gauge spacing. The model then runs by Monte Carlo simulation in which a total annual rainfall is selected before we generate rainstorms until the annual precipitation total is reached. The procedure continues for decadal simulations. Thus, we keep track of the hydrologic impact of individual storms and the integral of precipitation over multiple decades. We first test the model using ensemble predictions until we reach statistical similarity to the input data from WGEW. We then employ the model to assess decadal precipitation under simulations of climate change in which we separately vary the distribution of total annual rainfall (trend in moisture) and the intensity-duration curves used for simulation (trends in storminess). We demonstrate the model output through spatial maps of rainfall and through statistical comparisons of relevant parameters and distributions. Finally, discuss how the model can be used to understand basin-scale hydrology in terms of soil moisture, runoff, and erosion.

On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2011-02-01

This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the lower San Antonio River Watershed, South-Central Texas, 2000-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 2,150 square miles of the lower San Antonio River watershed in Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties in south-central Texas. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge using rainfall, potential ET, and upstream discharge data obtained from National Weather Service meteorological stations and USGS streamflow-gaging stations. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater treatment-plant discharges, withdrawals for cropland irrigation, and estimated inflows from springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for 2000-2007. Because of the complexity of the study area, the lower San Antonio River watershed was divided into four subwatersheds; separate HSPF models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations of the three upstream models, then running the downstream model. The surficial geology was simplified as nine contiguous water-budget zones to meet model computational limitations and also to define zones for which ET, recharge, and other water-budget information would be output by the model. The model was calibrated and tested using streamflow data from 10 streamflow-gaging stations; additionally, simulated ET was compared with measured ET from a meteorological station west of the study area. The model calibration is considered very good; streamflow volumes were calibrated to within 10 percent of measured streamflow volumes. During 2000-2007, the estimated annual mean rainfall for the water-budget zones ranged from 33.7 to 38.5 inches per year; the estimated annual mean rainfall for the entire watershed was 34.3 inches. Using the HSPF model it was estimated that for 2000-2007, less than 10 percent of the annual mean rainfall on the study watershed exited the watershed as streamflow, whereas about 82 percent, or an average of 28.2 inches per year, exited the watershed as ET. Estimated annual mean groundwater recharge for the entire study area was 3.0 inches, or about 9 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was largest in water-budget zone 3, the zone where the Carrizo Sand outcrops. In water-budget zone 3, the estimated annual mean recharge was 5.1 inches or about 15 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was smallest in water-budget zone 6, about 1.1 inches or about 3 percent of annual mean rainfall. The Cibolo Creek subwatershed and the subwatershed of the San Antonio River upstream from Cibolo Creek had the largest and smallest basin yields, about 4.8 inches and 1.2 inches, respectively. Estimated annual ET and annual recharge generally increased with increasing annual rainfall. Also, ET was larger in zones 8 and 9, the most downstream zones in the watershed. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error.

Bare soil erosion modelling with rainfall simulations: experiments on crop and recently burned areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catani, F.; Menci, S.; Moretti, S.; Keizer, J.

2006-12-01

The use of numerical models is of fundamental importance in the comprehension and prediction of soil erosion. At the very basis of the calibration process of the numerical models are the direct measurements of the governing parameters, carried out during field or laboratory tests. To measure and model soil erosion rainfall simulations can be used, that allow the reproduction of project rainfall having chosen characteristics of intensity and duration. The main parameters that rainfall simulators can measure are hydraulic conductivity, parameters of soil erodibility, rate and features of splash erosion, discharge coefficient and sediment yield. Other important parameters can be estimated during the rainfall simulations through the use of photogrammetric instruments able to memorize high definition stereographic models of the soil plot under analysis at different time steps. In this research rainfall simulator experiments (rse) were conducted to measure and quantify runoff and erosion processes on selected bare soil plots. The selected plots are located in some vineyards, olive groves and crops in central Italy and in some recently burned areas in north-central Portugal, affected by a wildfire during early July 2005 and, at the time, largely covered by commercial eucalypt plantations. On the Italian crops the choice of the rainfall intensities and durations were performed on the basis of the previous knowledge of the selected test areas. The procedure was based on an initial phase of soil wetting and a following phase of 3 erosion cycles. The first should reproduce the effects of a normal rainfall with a return time of 2 years (23 mm/h). The second should represent a serious episode with a return time of 10 years (34 mm/h). The third has the objective to reproduce and understand the effects of an intense precipitation event, with a return time of 50 years (41 mm/h). During vineyards experiments some photogrammetric surveys were carried out as well. In the Portugal burned areas, to measure the influence of rain intensities, two rainfall simulations have been carried out simultaneously, one with an intensity of 45 mm/h and one with 85 mm/h. In both cases, before the experiments, soil and vegetation cover description have been made and soil samples have been taken. During the simulations soil samples leaving the parcels were taken at suitable time intervals to measure the sediment yield and the runoff. The rse data have been thought to provide a sufficient basis for erosion modelling at the small-plot scale and, through upscaling, for predicting erosion rates at the slope scale. For this purpose two soil erosion models, WEPP and MEFIDIS, have been selected and then compared. The comparison has shown a certain degree of uncertainty in numeric erosion prediction, due to the non linearity of the overland erosion processes, and to technical and conceptual difficulties, including the data collection. In the following laboratory phase high resolution (2 by 2 mm) DEMs of the vineyards plot are being produced for each meaningful processing phase. The digital elevation models will then be analysed to asses calibration parameters such as soil roughness (expressed by standard deviation of elevations, fractal dimension and local relief energy), soil and sediment transfer (hypsometric curves, local elevation and volume differences) and rill network evolution (Horton ordering, stream lengths, contributing area, drainage density, Hack's law)

Using rainfall simulations to understand the relationship between precipitation, soil crust and infiltration in four agricultural soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo-Martinez, Marta; Alastrué, Juan; Moret-Fernández, David; Beguería, Santiago; López, Mariví; Navas, Ana

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out in order to study soil crust formation and its relation with soil infiltration parameters—sorptivity (S) and hydraulic conductivity (K)—on four common agricultural soils with contrasted properties; namely, Cambisol, Gypsisol, Solonchak, and Solonetz. Three different rainfall simulations, replicated three times each of them, were performed over the soils. Prior to rainfall simulations all soils were mechanically tilled with a rototiller to create similar soil surface conditions and homogeneous soils. Rainfall simulation parameters were monitored in real time by a Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor, allowing a complete characterization of simulated rainfall microphysics (drop size and velocity distributions) and integrated variables (accumulated rainfall, intensity and kinetic energy). Once soils dried after the simulations, soil penetration resistance was measured and soil hydraulic parameters, S and K, were estimated using the disc infiltrometry technique. There was little variation in rainfall parameters among simulations. Mean intensity and mean median diameter (D50) varied in simulations 1 ( 0.5 bar), 2 ( 0.8 bar) and 3 ( 1.2 bar) from 26.5 mm h-1 and 0.43 mm (s1) to 40.5 mm h-1 and 0.54 mm (s2) and 41.1 mm h-1 and 0.56 mm for (s3), respectively. Crust formation by soil was explained by D50 and subsequently by the total precipitation amount and the percentage of silt and clay in soil, being Cambisol and Gypsisol the soils that showed more increase in penetration resistance by simulation. All soils showed similar S values by simulations which were explained by rainfall intensity. Different patterns of K were shown by the four soils, which were explained by the combined effect of D50 and intensity, together with soil physico-chemical properties. This study highlights the importance of monitoring all precipitation parameters to determine their effect on different soil processes.

Simulation of localized heavy precipitation in South Korea on 20 June 2014: sensitivity test of integration time-step size and an effect of topographic resolution using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, Joon-Woo; Jee, Joon-Bum; Lim, A.-Young; Choi, Young-Jean

2015-04-01

Korean warm-season rainfall, accounting for about three-fourths of the annual precipitation, is primarily caused by Changma front, which is a kind of the East Asian summer monsoon, and localized heavy rainfall with convective instability. Various physical mechanisms potentially exert influences on heavy precipitation over South Korea. Representatively, the middle latitude and subtropical weather fronts, associated with a quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, make up one of the main rain-bearing synoptic scale systems. Localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances along the Changma front or convective instabilities resulted from unstable air mass including the direct or indirect effect of typhoons. In recent years, torrential rainfalls, which are more than 30mm/hour of precipitation amount, in warm-season has increased threefold in Seoul, which is a metropolitan city in South Korea. In order to investigate multiple potential causes of warm-season localized heavy precipitation in South Korea, a localized heavy precipitation case took place on 20 June 2014 at Seoul. This case was mainly seen to be caused by short-wave trough, which is associated with baroclinic instability in the northwest of Korea, and a thermal low, which has high moist and warm air through analysis. This structure showed convective scale torrential rain was embedded in the dynamic and in the thermodynamic structures. In addition to, a sensitivity of rainfall amount and maximum rainfall location to the integration time-step sizes was investigated in the simulations of a localized heavy precipitation case using Weather Research and Forecasting model. The simulation of time-step sizes of 9-27s corresponding to a horizontal resolution of 4.5km and 1.5km varied slightly difference of the maximum rainfall amount. However, the sensitivity of spatial patterns and temporal variations in rainfall were relatively small for the time-step sizes. The effect of topography was also important in the localized heavy precipitation simulation.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.

Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series regarding their suitability for urban drainage modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Heijden, Sven; Callau Poduje, Ana; Müller, Hannes; Shehu, Bora; Haberlandt, Uwe; Lorenz, Manuel; Wagner, Sven; Kunstmann, Harald; Müller, Thomas; Mosthaf, Tobias; Bárdossy, András

2015-04-01

For the design and operation of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models, long, continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are necessary. Suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, intelligent design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable precipitation data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic precipitation data for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. The presented study compares four different approaches of precipitation models regarding their ability to reproduce rainfall and runoff characteristics. These include one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model, and one disaggregation approach based on daily precipitation measurements. All four models produce long precipitation time series with a temporal resolution of five minutes. The synthetic time series are first compared to observed rainfall reference time series. Comparison criteria include event based statistics like mean dry spell and wet spell duration, wet spell amount and intensity, long term means of precipitation sum and number of events, and extreme value distributions for different durations. Then they are compared regarding simulated discharge characteristics using an urban hydrological model on a fictitious sewage network. First results show a principal suitability of all rainfall models but with different strengths and weaknesses regarding the different rainfall and runoff characteristics considered.

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, A.L.; Charlton, T.J.; Ortel, T.W.; Vonnahme, C.C.; ,

1998-01-01

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

The Impact of Simulated Mesoscale Convective Systems on Global Precipitation: A Multiscale Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

2017-01-01

The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. MCSs usually have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain with several hundred km is required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multi-scale modeling frameworks (MMFs) may also lack the resolution (4 km grid spacing) and domain size (128 km) to realistically simulate MCSs. In this study, the impact of MCSs on precipitation is examined by conducting model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and Goddard MMF (GMMF). The results indicate that both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with fewer grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are weaker or reduced in the GMMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feed back are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures shows both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.

The impact of simulated mesoscale convective systems on global precipitation: A multiscale modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

2017-06-01

The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. MCSs usually have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain with several hundred km is required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs) may also lack the resolution (4 km grid spacing) and domain size (128 km) to realistically simulate MCSs. The impact of MCSs on precipitation is examined by conducting model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE, a CRM) model and Goddard MMF that uses the GCEs as its embedded CRMs. Both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with fewer grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are weaker or reduced in the Goddard MMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feedback are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures shows both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.

Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

2008-01-01

Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

How is overland flow produced under intermittent rain? An analysis using plot-scale rainfall simulation on dryland soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkerley, David

2018-01-01

The characteristic intermittency of rainfall includes temporary cessations (hiatuses), as well as periods of very low intensity within more intense events. To understand how these characteristics of rainfall affect overland flow production, rainfall simulations involving repeated cycles of on-off intermittency were carried out on dryland soils in arid western New South Wales, Australia. Periods of rain (10 mm/h) and no-rain were applied in alternation with cycle times from 3 min to 25 min, in experiments lasting 1-1.5 h. Results showed that intermittency could delay the onset of runoff by more than 30 min, reduce the runoff ratio, reduce the peak runoff rate, and reduce the apparent event infiltration rate by 30-45%. When hiatuses in rainfall were longer than 15-20 min, runoff that had resulted from prior rain ceased completely before the recommencement of rain. Results demonstrate that if rainfall intermittency is not accounted for, estimates of infiltrability based on runoff plot data can be systematically in error. Despite the use of intermittent rain, the episodic occurrence of runoff could be predicted successfully by fitting multiple affine Horton infiltration equations, whose changing f0 and Kf coefficients, but uniform values of fc, reflected the redistribution of soil moisture and the change in the infiltrability f during hiatuses in rainfall. The value of fc varied little among the fitted equations, so constituting an affine set of relationships. This new approach provides an alternative to the use of steady-state methods that are common in rainfall simulation experiments and which typically yield only an estimate of fc. The new field results confirm that intermittency affects infiltration and runoff depths and timing at plot scale and on intra-event timescales. Additional work on other soil types, and at other spatial and temporal scales, is needed to test the generality of these findings.

Experimental study of overland flow resistance coefficient model of grassland based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Peng; Yang, Er; Ni, Yong Xin

2018-06-01

The overland flow resistance on grassland slope of 20° was studied by using simulated rainfall experiments. Model of overland flow resistance coefficient was established based on BP neural network. The input variations of model were rainfall intensity, flow velocity, water depth, and roughness of slope surface, and the output variations was overland flow resistance coefficient. Model was optimized by Genetic Algorithm. The results show that the model can be used to calculate overland flow resistance coefficient, and has high simulation accuracy. The average prediction error of the optimized model of test set is 8.02%, and the maximum prediction error was 18.34%.

Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Shie, C.-L.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R.; Ciesielski, P. E.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

How certain is desiccation in west African Sahel rainfall (1930-1990)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Agnew, Clive T.

2008-04-01

Hypotheses for the late 1960s to 1990 period of desiccation (secular decrease in rainfall) in the west African Sahel (WAS) are typically tested by comparing empirical evidence or model predictions against "observations" of Sahelian rainfall. The outcomes of those comparisons can have considerable influence on the understanding of regional and global environmental systems. Inverse-distance squared area-weighted (IDW) estimates of WAS rainfall observations are commonly aggregated over space to provide temporal patterns without uncertainty. Spatial uncertainty of WAS rainfall was determined using the median approximation sequential indicator simulation. Every year (1930-1990) 300 equally probable realizations of annual summer rainfall were produced to honor station observations, match percentiles of the observed cumulative distributions and indicator variograms and perform adequately during cross validation. More than 49% of the IDW mean annual rainfall fell outside the 5th and 95th percentiles for annual rainfall realization means. The IDW means represented an extreme realization. Uncertainty in desiccation was determined by repeatedly (100,000) sampling the annual distribution of rainfall realization means and by applying Mann-Kendall nonparametric slope detection and significance testing. All of the negative gradients for the entire period were statistically significant. None of the negative gradients for the expected desiccation period were statistically significant. The results support the presence of a long-term decline in annual rainfall but demonstrate that short-term desiccation (1965-1990) cannot be detected. Estimates of uncertainty for precipitation and other climate variables in this or other regions, or across the globe, are essential for the rigorous detection of spatial patterns and time series trends.

Rainfall Data Simulation

Treesearch

T.L. Rogerson

1980-01-01

A simple simulation model to predict rainfall for individual storms in central Arkansas is described. Output includes frequency distribution tables for days between storms and for storm size classes; a storm summary by day number (January 1 = 1 and December 31 = 365) and rainfall amount; and an annual storm summary that includes monthly values for rainfall and number...

Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

2016-04-01

Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our hierarchical MC model with the semi-parametric model in preserving rainfall variability in daily, monthly, and multi-year scales. To calibrate the parameters of both models and assess their ability to preserve observed statistics, we have used ground based data from 15 raingauge stations around Australia, which consist a wide range of climate zones including coastal, monsoonal, and arid climate characteristics. In preliminary results, both models show comparative performances in preserving the multi-year variability of rainfall depth and occurrence. However, the semi-parametric model shows a tendency of overestimating the mean rainfall depth, while our model shows a tendency of overestimating the number of wet days. We will discuss further the relative merits of the both models for hydrology simulation in the presentation.

A medium scale mobile rainfall simulator for experiments on soil erosion and soil hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavka, Petr; Dostál, Tomáš; Iserloh, Thomas; Davidová, Tereza; Krása, Josef; David, Václav; Vopravil, Jan; Khel, Tomáš; Bauer, Miroslav

2015-04-01

Numerous types of rainfall simulators (RS) have been used to the study the behaviour of surface runoff and sediment transport caused by rainfall. It has been documented, that reproducibility and the knowledge of test conditions are essential for gathering necessary and comparable data. Therefore medium, to large scale field rainfall simulators are very desirable. Such devices are nevertheless very much time and laboratory consuming and their weakness is especially a high water consumption. A new, compact and mobile medium scale rainfall simulator has been developed under close cooperation of CTU Prague and Research Institute of Soil Conservation. The main idea was to develop a device, which is easily to handle by 4 persons, transportable with trailer behind an off-road car and independent of additional water sources and energy. Therefore, a special construction fixed on a standard trailer has been developed. It consists of an aggregate to produce power, an electric pump and a water tank with a capacity up to 1000 l. The pump can work in reverse mode, what allows filling the water tank from any source, including stream or pond. The capacity of the tank is normally sufficient for experiments with duration up to 30 minutes. The RS itself consist of a folding arm, which carries 4 nozzles (SS Full Jet 40WSQ), controlled by electromagnetic valves, which allow to set up desired rainfall intensity by opening intervals. A simple logical unit allows programming various schemes of operation of individual nozzles, to keep low pressure fluctuation in the system. The arm is first unfolded into total length of 9.6 m and then lifted up, using simple crab to its operation position which is 2.3 - 2.65 m above terrain surface. The distance between individual nozzles had been optimized based on number of calibrating experiments on 2.4 m. There is also special space at the trailer for transportation of metal sheets and collector (for experimental plot), additional equipment, tools and measurement devices. To prevent the wind effect, whole construction can be easily covered by tarpaulin. The experimental plot has a basic size of 9.5 x 2 m, however, we usually use only 8 x 2 m. The nozzles are fed with a water pressure of about 0.8 bars. Various schemes of opened nozzles allow varying rainfall intensities between 40 and 80 mm.h-1. Rainfall collectors were used to measure spatial rainfall distribution. The spatial rainfall distribution on the entire plot is higher than 80% (Christiansen-Uniformity Coefficient). Drop size distribution and drop fall velocities were analyzed by means of a Laser Precipitation Monitor (by Thies) with satisfactory results. The mean drop sizes ranging between 0.75 - 2.00 mm depending on applied intensity. Resulting kinetic energies ranging from 188 - 582 J m-2 mm-1. The measured rainfall variables show low fluctuations throughout the tests and are therefore reproducible in field investigations. The research has been supported by the research projects SGS14/180/OHK1/3T/11 and QJ330118.

Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

2016-12-01

Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a demonstration of equifinality. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error combined with the use of the DWT as a model data reduction technique allows the joint inference of hydrologic model parameters along with rainfall.

Rainfall simulators - innovations seeking rainfall uniformity and automatic flow rate measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Miroslav; Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Luděk; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef

2016-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are used worldwide for many experimental purposes, such as runoff generation and soil erosion research. At CTU in Prague a laboratory simulator with swinging nozzles VeeJet has been operated since 2001. Since 2012 an additional terrain simulator is being used with 4 fixed FullJet 40WSQ nozzles with 2,4 m spacing and operating over two simultaneously sprinkled experimental plots sizing 8x2 and 1x1 m. In parallel to other research projects a specific problem was solved: improving rainfall spatial uniformity and overall intensity and surface runoff measurements. These fundamental variables significantly affect investigated processes as well as resulting water balance of the plot, therefore they need to be determined as accurately as possible. Although the original nozzles setting produced (commonly used) Christiansen uniformity index CU over 80 %, detailed measurements proved this index insufficient and showed many unrequired rainfall extremes within the plot. Moreover the number of rainfall intensity scenarios was limited and some of them required problematic multi-pressure operation of the water distribution system. Therefore the simulator was subjected to many substantial changes in 2015. Innovations ranged from pump intensification to control unit upgrade. As essential change was considered increase in number of nozzles to 9 in total and reducing their spacing to 1,2 m. However new uniformity measurements did not bring any significant improvement. Tested scenarios showed equal standard deviations of interpolated intensity rasters and equal or slightly lower CU index. Imperfections of sprinkling nozzles were found to be the limiting factor. Still many other benefits were brought with the new setup. Whole experimental plot 10x2 m is better covered with the rainfall while the water consumption is retained. Nozzles are triggered in triplets, which enables more rainfall intensity scenarios. Water distribution system is more stable due to single pressure operating mode, which is ensured by the pressure probe controlled electromagnetic valve. Previous experiments implied the need of automatic continuous measurements of selected variables. To this end the control unit was equipped with a datalogger. In a several seconds time step it collects the values of water pressure, nozzle-valves operation, control point rainfall intensity from a tipping bucket rain gauge, topsoil moisture from several Theta ML2x probes and most recently the plot outlet runoff rate. For a continuous runoff rate measurement a 0,4-foot HS-flume was constructed and equipped with S18U ultrasonic sensor. Assemble setting was optimised both in flow rate laboratory flume and in laboratory rainfall simulator. Namely the rating curves for particular flume bottom slopes were derived. Employment of the flume in the terrain is scheduled for the experimental season 2016, but laboratory results already show sufficient measurement accuracy and are promising in terms of experimental campaigns simplification. The abovementioned activities have been supported by the research grants SGS14/180/OHK1/3T/11, QJ1530181, QJ1520265 and QJ1330118.

A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Human Activities and Climate Change on Rainfall-Runoff in Xiaoqing River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Cao, S.; Liu, C.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

It is a hot topic to study the effects of human activities on the rainfall-runoff relationship and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors. According to the flexibility of Copula function to capture multivariate interdependent structure, the Copula structure between rainfall and runoff was analyzed by using the rainfall-runoff variation test method based on Archimedean Copula function to diagnose the variation of rainfall-runoff relationship. The correlation of rainfall-runoff relationship could be directly analyzed by Copula function, which could intuitively display the change of runoff in the same rainfall before and after the mutation period. The statistical method was used to simulate the underlying surface conditions before the abrupt point, and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes were calculated. It can finally figure out the effects of human activities on the rainfall-runoff relationship. Taking xiaoqing river for example, the results showed that the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Xiaoqing River Basin variated in 1996 mainly due to the continuous increase of water consumption in the watershed and the change of the runoff attenuation caused by the large-scale water conservancy projects. And interannual or annual change of rainfall was not obvious; compared with the year before the variation , the runoff capacity of the basin was weakened under the same rainfall conditions after the variation ; Rainfall and runoff distribution were significantly changed and the same magnitude of rainfall and probability of runoff change were significantly different in different periods; The statistical method was used to simulate the runoff from 1996 to 2016. Compared with that from 1960 to 1995, the result showed that the contribution rate of human activities to runoff reduction was 46.8% and that of climate change was 53.2%. By relevant reference, rainfall-runoff correlation and analysis of human activities, the result was verified to be reasonable. The study can be applied to other watersheds, or used to diagnose the variation of the relationship between meteorological elements and hydrological elements so as to provide scientific basis for rational exploitation and utilization of river water resources, as well as soil and water conservation.

Capabilities of stochastic rainfall models as data providers for urban hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

For planning of urban drainage systems using hydrological models, long, continuous precipitation series with high temporal resolution are needed. Since observed time series are often too short or not available everywhere, the use of synthetic precipitation is a common alternative. This contribution compares three precipitation models regarding their suitability to provide 5 minute continuous rainfall time series for a) sizing of drainage networks for urban flood protection and b) dimensioning of combined sewage systems for pollution reduction. The rainfall models are a parametric stochastic model (Haberlandt et al., 2008), a non-parametric probabilistic approach (Bárdossy, 1998) and a stochastic downscaling of dynamically simulated rainfall (Berg et al., 2013); all models are operated both as single site and multi-site generators. The models are applied with regionalised parameters assuming that there is no station at the target location. Rainfall and discharge characteristics are utilised for evaluation of the model performance. The simulation results are compared against results obtained from reference rainfall stations not used for parameter estimation. The rainfall simulations are carried out for the federal states of Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony in Germany and the discharge simulations for the drainage networks of the cities of Hamburg, Brunswick and Freiburg. Altogether, the results show comparable simulation performance for the three models, good capabilities for single site simulations but low skills for multi-site simulations. Remarkably, there is no significant difference in simulation performance comparing the tasks flood protection with pollution reduction, so the models are finally able to simulate both the extremes and the long term characteristics of rainfall equally well. Bárdossy, A., 1998. Generating precipitation time series using simulated annealing. Wat. Resour. Res., 34(7): 1737-1744. Berg, P., Wagner, S., Kunstmann, H., Schädler, G., 2013. High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: part I — validation. Climate Dynamics, 40(1): 401-414. Haberlandt, U., Ebner von Eschenbach, A.-D., Buchwald, I., 2008. A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12: 1353-1367.

Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulation of extreme rainfall events in the upper Ganga Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Ila; Osuri, Krishna K.; Mujumdar, Pradeep P.; Niyogi, Dev

2018-02-01

Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall events are necessary for an accurate prediction of floods. Most of the global rainfall products are available at a coarse resolution, rendering them less desirable for extreme rainfall analysis. Therefore, regional mesoscale models such as the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often used to provide rainfall estimates at fine grid spacing. Modelling heavy rainfall events is an enduring challenge, as such events depend on multi-scale interactions, and the model configurations such as grid spacing, physical parameterization and initialization. With this background, the WRF model is implemented in this study to investigate the impact of different processes on extreme rainfall simulation, by considering a representative event that occurred during 15-18 June 2013 over the Ganga Basin in India, which is located at the foothills of the Himalayas. This event is simulated with ensembles involving four different microphysics (MP), two cumulus (CU) parameterizations, two planetary boundary layers (PBLs) and two land surface physics options, as well as different resolutions (grid spacing) within the WRF model. The simulated rainfall is evaluated against the observations from 18 rain gauges and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT version 7 data. From the analysis, it should be noted that the choice of MP scheme influences the spatial pattern of rainfall, while the choice of PBL and CU parameterizations influences the magnitude of rainfall in the model simulations. Further, the WRF run with Goddard MP, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL and Betts-Miller-Janjic CU scheme is found to perform best in simulating this heavy rain event. The selected configuration is evaluated for several heavy to extremely heavy rainfall events that occurred across different months of the monsoon season in the region. The model performance improved through incorporation of detailed land surface processes involving prognostic soil moisture evolution in Noah scheme compared to the simple Slab model. To analyse the effect of model grid spacing, two sets of downscaling ratios - (i) 1 : 3, global to regional (G2R) scale and (ii) 1 : 9, global to convection-permitting scale (G2C) - are employed. Results indicate that a higher downscaling ratio (G2C) causes higher variability and consequently large errors in the simulations. Therefore, G2R is adopted as a suitable choice for simulating heavy rainfall event in the present case study. Further, the WRF-simulated rainfall is found to exhibit less bias when compared with the NCEP FiNaL (FNL) reanalysis data.

Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2018-01-01

In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

Design and hydraulic characteristics of a field-scale bi-phasic bioretention rain garden system for storm water management.

PubMed

Yang, H; Florence, D C; McCoy, E L; Dick, W A; Grewal, P S

2009-01-01

A field-scale bioretention rain garden system was constructed using a novel bi-phasic (i.e. sequence of anaerobic to aerobic) concept for improving retention and removal of storm water runoff pollutants. Hydraulic tests with bromide tracer and simulated runoff pollutants (nitrate-N, phosphate-P, Cu, Pb, and Zn) were performed in the system under a simulated continuous rainfall. The objectives of the tests were (1) to determine hydraulic characteristics of the system, and (2) to evaluate the movement of runoff pollutants through the system. For the 180 mm/24 h rainfall, the bi-phasic bioretention system effectively reduced both peak flow (approximately 70%) and runoff volume (approximately 42%). The breakthrough curves (BTCs) of bromide tracer suggest that the transport pattern of the system is similar to dispersed plug flow under this large runoff event. The BTCs of bromide showed mean 10% and 90% breakthrough times of 5.7 h and 12.5 h, respectively. Under the continuous rainfall, a significantly different transport pattern was found between each runoff pollutant. Nitrate-N was easily transported through the system with potential leaching risk from the initial soil medium, whereas phosphate-P and metals were significantly retained indicating sorption-mediated transport. These findings support the importance of hydraulics, in combination with the soil medium, when creating bioretention systems for bioremediation that are effective for various rainfall sizes and intervals.

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Qian, J.-H.; Shie, C.-L.; Lau, W. K.-M.; Kakar, R.; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

The impact of mesoscale convective systems on global precipitation: A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2017-04-01

The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. Typical MCSs have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain and high resolution are required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multi-scale modeling frameworks (MMFs) with 32 CRM grid points and 4 km grid spacing also might not have sufficient resolution and domain size for realistically simulating MCSs. In this study, the impact of MCSs on precipitation processes is examined by conducting numerical model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) and Goddard MMF (GMMF). The results indicate that both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with less grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show that the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are either weaker or reduced in the GMMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feed back are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is conducted and results in both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.

Qualitative comparison of soil erosion, runoff and infiltration coefficients using small portable rainfall simulators in Germany, Spain and France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Iserloh, Thomas; Morvan, Xavier; Malam Issa, Oumarou; Naisse, Christophe; Keesstra, Saskia; Cerdà, Artemi; Prosdocimi, Massimo; Arnáez, José; Lasanta, Teodoro; Concepción Ramos, María; José Marqués, María; Ruiz Colmenero, Marta; Bienes, Ramón; Damián Ruiz Sinoga, José; Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.

2016-04-01

Small portable rainfall simulators are considered as a useful tool to analyze soil erosion processes in cultivated lands. European research groups of Spain (Valencia, Málaga, Lleida, Madrid and La Rioja), France (Reims) or Germany (Trier) have used different rainfall simulators (varying in drop size distribution and fall velocities, kinetic energy, plot forms and sizes, and field of application)to study soil loss, surface flow, runoff and infiltration coefficients in different experimental plots (Valencia, Montes de Málaga, Penedès, Campo Real and La Rioja in Spain, Champagne in France and Mosel-Ruwer valley in Germany). The measurements and experiments developed by these research teams give an overview of the variety in the methodologies with rainfall simulations in studying the problem of soil erosion and describing the erosion features in different climatic environments, management practices and soil types. The aim of this study is: i) to investigate where, how and why researchers from different wine-growing regions applied rainfall simulations with successful results as a tool to measure soil erosion processes; ii) to make a qualitative comparison about the general soil erosion processes in European terroirs; iii) to demonstrate the importance of the development a standard method for soil erosion processes in vineyards, using rainfall simulators; iv) and to analyze the key factors that should be taken into account to carry out rainfall simulations. The rainfall simulations in all cases allowed knowing the infiltration capacity and the susceptibility of the soil to be detached and to generate sediment loads to runoff. Despite using small plots, the experiments were useful to analyze the influence of soil cover to reduce soil erosion and to make comparison between different locations or the influence of different soil characteristics.

Daily Rainfall Simulation Using Climate Variables and Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.; Joo, H. J.; Han, D.

2017-12-01

Markov chain is an easy method to handle when we compare it with other ones for the rainfall simulation. However, it also has limitations in reflecting seasonal variability of rainfall or change on rainfall patterns caused by climate change. This study applied a Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model(NHMM) to consider these problems. The NHMM compared with a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) for the evaluation of a goodness of the model. First, we chose Gum river basin in Korea to apply the models and collected daily rainfall data from the stations. Also, the climate variables of geopotential height, temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind date were collected from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to consider external factors affecting the rainfall event. We conducted a correlation analysis between rainfall and climate variables then developed a linear regression equation using the climate variables which have high correlation with rainfall. The monthly rainfall was obtained by the regression equation and it became input data of NHMM. Finally, the daily rainfall by NHMM was simulated and we evaluated the goodness of fit and prediction capability of NHMM by comparing with those of HMM. As a result of simulation by HMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.2076 and 10.8243/131.1304mm each. In case of NHMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.6652 and 10.5112/100.9865mm each. We could verify that the error of daily and monthly rainfall simulated by NHMM was improved by 2.89% and 22.99% compared with HMM. Therefore, it is expected that the results of the study could provide more accurate data for hydrologic analysis. Acknowledgements This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

Effect of rainfall timing and tillage on the transport of steroid hormones in runoff from manure amended row crop fields.

PubMed

Biswas, Sagor; Kranz, William L; Shapiro, Charles A; Snow, Daniel D; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon L; Mamo, Mitiku; Tarkalson, David D; Zhang, Tian C; Shelton, David P; van Donk, Simon J; Mader, Terry L

2017-02-15

Runoff generated from livestock manure amended row crop fields is one of the major pathways of hormone transport to the aquatic environment. The study determined the effects of manure handling, tillage methods, and rainfall timing on the occurrence and transport of steroid hormones in runoff from the row crop field. Stockpiled and composted manure from hormone treated and untreated animals were applied to test plots and subjected to two rainfall simulation events 30days apart. During the two rainfall simulation events, detection of any steroid hormone or metabolites was identified in 8-86% of runoff samples from any tillage and manure treatment. The most commonly detected hormones were 17β-estradiol, estrone, estriol, testosterone, and α-zearalenol at concentrations ranging up to 100-200ngL -1 . Considering the maximum detected concentrations in runoff, no more than 10% of the applied hormone can be transported through the dissolved phase of runoff. Results from the study indicate that hormones can persist in soils receiving livestock manure over an extended period of time and the dissolved phase of hormone in runoff is not the preferred pathway of transport from the manure applied fields irrespective of tillage treatments and timing of rainfall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

2012-06-01

Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

2017-10-01

In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

Experimental Exploration on Rainfall-induced Mass Re-mobilization after Giant Earthquake: A case study in Wenchuan earthquake hit region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zongji; Bogaard, Thom. A.; Qiao, Jianping; Jiang, Yuanjun

2015-04-01

Prevention and mitigation of rainfall induced geological hazards after the Ms=8 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008 were gained more significance for the rebuild of earthquake hit regions in China. After the Wenchuan earthquake, there were thousands of slopes failure, which were much more susceptible to subsequent heavy rainfall and many even transformed into potential debris flows. An typical example can be found in the catastrophic disaster occurred in Zhongxing County, Chengdu City on 10th July, 2013 in which the unknown fractured slope up the mountain was triggered by a downpour and transformed into subsequent debris flow which wiped the community downstream, about 200 victims were reported in that tragic event. The transform patterns of rainfall-induced mass re-mobilization was categorized into three major type as the erosion of fractured slopes, initiate on loosen deposit and outbreak of landslide (debris flow) dams according to vast field investigation in the earthquake hit region. Despite the widespread and hidden characters,the complexity of the process also demonstrated in the transforms of the mass re-mobilized by the erosion of both gravity and streams in the small watersheds which have never been reported before the giant Wenchuan Earthquake in many regions. As a result, an increasing number of questions for disaster relief and mitigation were proposed including the threshold of early warning and measurement of the volume for the design of mitigation measures on rainfall-induced mass re-mobilization in debris flow gullies. This study is aimed for answer the essential questions about the threshold and amount of mass initiation triggered by the subsequent rainfall in post earthquake time. In this study, experimental tests were carried out for simulating the failure of the rainfall-induced mass re-mobilization in respectively in a natural co-seismic fractured slope outside and the debris flow simulation platform inside the laboratory. A natural fractured slope was selected to conduct the field experimental test,after the field experimental test, the correlation of rainfall parameters, deformation criterion and water content as well as the failure volume of gravity erosion was investigated. In addition, the loosen mass re-mobilized by the stream was also simulated by the model experiment by which the correlation of rainfall thresholds, and the initial volume of mass triggered by the flow was analyzed. Thus, the threshold and volume measurement model for the initiation of mass re-mobilization were proposed by means of this experimental research. Despite of the fact that the simplicity of the model derived from experimental and empirical method and some drawbacks connected with the uncertainty and complexity of the geological phenomenon, the proposed method have contributed a lot in application for the early warning and prevention of mass transformed debris flows in earthquake hit region, China.

Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang

2017-04-01

Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.

A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

2016-04-01

An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between observed and simulated streamflows as a result of more realistic sub-daily meteorological forcing.

Evaluating the Effect of Rainfall Infiltration on the Slope Stability of T16 tower of Taipei Mao-kong Gondola by Numerical Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

RUNG, J.

2013-12-01

In this study, a series of rainfall-stability analyses were performed to simulate the failure mechanism and the function of remediation works of the down slope of T-16 tower pier, Mao-Kong gondola (or T-16 Slope) at the hillside of Taipei City using two-dimensional finite element method. The failure mechanism of T-16 Slope was simulated using the rainfall hyetograph of Jang-Mi typhoon in 2008 based on the field investigation data, monitoring data, soil/rock mechanical testing data and detail design plots of remediation works. Eventually, the numerical procedures and various input parameters in the analysis were verified by comparing the numerical results with the field observations. In addition, 48 hrs design rainfalls corresponding to 5, 10, 25 and 50 years return periods were prepared using the 20 years rainfall data of Mu-Zha rainfall observation station, Central Weather Bureau for the rainfall-stability analyses of T-16 Slope to inspect the effect of the compound stabilization works on the overall stability of the slope. At T-16 Slope, without considering the longitudinal and transverse drainages on the ground surface, there totally 4 types of stabilization works were installed to stabilize the slope. From the slope top to the slope toe, the stabilization works of T-16 Slope consists of RC-retaining wall with micro-pile foundation at the up-segment, earth anchor at the up-middle-segment, soil nailing at the middle-segment and retaining pile at the down-segment of the slope. The effect of each individual stabilization work on the slope stability under rainfall condition was examined and evaluated by raising field groundwater level.

Satellite rainfall retrieval by logistic regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Long S.

1986-01-01

The potential use of logistic regression in rainfall estimation from satellite measurements is investigated. Satellite measurements provide covariate information in terms of radiances from different remote sensors.The logistic regression technique can effectively accommodate many covariates and test their significance in the estimation. The outcome from the logistical model is the probability that the rainrate of a satellite pixel is above a certain threshold. By varying the thresholds, a rainrate histogram can be obtained, from which the mean and the variant can be estimated. A logistical model is developed and applied to rainfall data collected during GATE, using as covariates the fractional rain area and a radiance measurement which is deduced from a microwave temperature-rainrate relation. It is demonstrated that the fractional rain area is an important covariate in the model, consistent with the use of the so-called Area Time Integral in estimating total rain volume in other studies. To calibrate the logistical model, simulated rain fields generated by rainfield models with prescribed parameters are needed. A stringent test of the logistical model is its ability to recover the prescribed parameters of simulated rain fields. A rain field simulation model which preserves the fractional rain area and lognormality of rainrates as found in GATE is developed. A stochastic regression model of branching and immigration whose solutions are lognormally distributed in some asymptotic limits has also been developed.

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan

2013-11-01

supporting exceptionally productive agricultural lands, the Central U.S. is susceptible to severe droughts and floods. Such precipitation extremes are expected to worsen with climate change. However, future projections are highly uncertain as global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to resolve precipitation extremes. In this study, we assess how well models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate summer means, variability, extremes, and the diurnal cycle of Central U.S. summer rainfall. Output from a subset of historical CMIP5 simulations are used to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether dynamical downscaling improves the representation of Central U.S. rainfall. We investigate which boundary conditions influence dynamically downscaled precipitation estimates and identify GCMs that can reasonably simulate precipitation when downscaled. The CMIP5 models simulate the seasonal mean and variability of summer rainfall reasonably well but fail to resolve extremes, the diurnal cycle, and the dynamic forcing of precipitation. Downscaling to 30 km improves these characteristics of precipitation, with the greatest improvement in the representation of extremes. Additionally, sizeable diurnal cycle improvements occur with higher (10 km) resolution and convective parameterization disabled, as the daily rainfall peak shifts 4 h closer to observations than 30 km resolution simulations. This lends greater confidence that the mechanisms responsible for producing rainfall are better simulated. Because dynamical downscaling can more accurately simulate these aspects of Central U.S. summer rainfall, policymakers can have added confidence in dynamically downscaled rainfall projections, allowing for more targeted adaptation and mitigation.

A software-based sensor for combined sewer overflows.

PubMed

Leonhardt, G; Fach, S; Engelhard, C; Kinzel, H; Rauch, W

2012-01-01

A new methodology for online estimation of excess flow from combined sewer overflow (CSO) structures based on simulation models is presented. If sufficient flow and water level data from the sewer system is available, no rainfall data are needed to run the model. An inverse rainfall-runoff model was developed to simulate net rainfall based on flow and water level data. Excess flow at all CSO structures in a catchment can then be simulated with a rainfall-runoff model. The method is applied to a case study and results show that the inverse rainfall-runoff model can be used instead of missing rain gauges. Online operation is ensured by software providing an interface to the SCADA-system of the operator and controlling the model. A water quality model could be included to simulate also pollutant concentrations in the excess flow.

Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic precipitation, fed into a rainfall-runoff model to derive the flood frequency in the Tirolean Alps in Austria. Given the number of generated events, the simulation framework is able to generate a large variety of rainfall patterns, as well as reproduce the variograms of relevant extreme rainfall events in the region of interest.

The International year of soils: thoughts on future directions for experiments in soil erosion research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2015-04-01

The 2015 UN Year of Soils (IYS), implemented by the FAO, aims to increase awareness and understanding of the importance of soil for food security and essential ecosystem functions. The IYS has six specific objectives, ranging from raising the awareness among civil society and decision makers about the profound importance of soils, to the development of policies supporting the sustainable use of the non-renewable soil resource. For scientists and academic teachers using experiments to study soil erosion processes, two objectives appear of particular relevance. First is need for the rapid capacity enhancement for soil information collection and monitoring at all levels (global, regional and national). While at first glance, this objective appears to relate mostly to traditional mapping, sampling and monitoring, the threat of large-scale soil loss, at least with regards to their ecosystem services, illustrates the need for approaches of studying soils that avoids such irreversible destruction. Relying on often limited data and their extrapolation does not cover this need for soil information because rapid change of the drivers of change itself carry the risk of unprecedented soil reactions not covered by existing data sets. Experiments, on the other hand, offer the possibility to simulate and analyze future soil change in great detail. Furthermore, carefully designed experiments may also limit the actual effort involved in collecting the specific required information, e.g. by applying tests designed to study soil system behavior under controlled conditions, compared to field monitoring. For rainfall simulation, experiments should therefore involve the detailed study of erosion processes and include detailed recording and reporting of soil and rainfall properties. The development of a set of standardised rainfall simulations would widen the use data collected by such experiments. A second major area for rainfall simulation lies in the the education of the public about the crucial role soil plays in food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation, essential ecosystem services, poverty alleviation and sustainable development. While erosion monitoring and modeling, as well as erosion risk assessment maps provide a solid foundation for decision makers, the attention of the public for "dirt" is often much easier to achieve by setting up a rainfall simulation experiment that illustrates the connection between a process, such as rainfall and runoff observed in daily life, and its causes and consequences. Exploring the potential of rainfall simulation experiments as an outreach tool should therefore be part of the soil science, geomorphology and hydrology community during the IYS 2015 and beyond.

The wildgeographer avatar shows how to measure soil erosion rates by means of a rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; González Pelayo, Óscar; Pereira, Paulo; Novara, Agata; Iserloh, Thomas; Prosdocimi, Massimo

2015-04-01

This contribution to the immersed worlds wish to develop the avatar that will teach the students and other scientists how to develop measurements of soil erosion, surface runoff and wetting fronts by means of simulated rainfall experiments. Rainfall simulation is a well established and knows methodology to measure the soil erosion rates and soil hydrology under controlled conditions (Cerdà 1998a; Cerdà, 1998b; Cerdà and Jurgensen, 2011; Dunkerley, 2012; Iserloh et al., 2012; Iserloh et al., 2013; Ziadat and Taimeh, 2013; Butzen et al., 2014). However, is a method that requires a long training and expertise to avoid mismanagement and mistaken. To use and avatar can help in the teaching of the technique and the dissemination of the findings. This contribution will show to other avatars how to develop an experiment with simulated rainfall and will help to take the right decision in the design of the experiments. Following the main parts of the experiments and measurements the Wildgeographer avatar must develop: 1. Determine the objectives and decide which rainfall intensity and distribution, and which plot size to be used. Choose between a laboratory or a field rainfall simulation. 2. Design of the rainfall simulator to achieve the objectives: type of rainfall simulator (sprayer or drop former) and calibrate. 3. The experiments are carried out. 4. The results are show. Acknowledgements To the "Ministerio de Economía and Competitividad" of Spanish Government for finance the POSTFIRE project (CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R). The research projects GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857 and PREVENTING AND REMEDIATING DEGRADATION OF SOILS IN EUROPE THROUGH LAND CARE (RECARE)FP7-ENV-2013- supported this research. References Butzen, V., Seeger, M., Wirtz, S., Huemann, M., Mueller, C., Casper, M., Ries, J. B. 2014. Quantification of Hortonian overland flow generation and soil erosion in a Central European low mountain range using rainfall experiments. Catena, 113, 202-212. Cerdà, A. 1998a. Effect of climate on surface flow along a climatological gradient in Israel. A field rainfall simulation approach. Journal of Arid Environments, 38, 145-159. Cerdà, A. 1998b. The influence of aspect and vegetation on seasonal changes in erosion under rainfall simulation on a clay soil in Spain. Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 78, 321-330. Cerdà, A., Jurgensen, M. F. 2011. Ant mounds as a source of sediment on citrus orchard plantations in eastern Spain. A three-scale rainfall simulation approach. Catena, 85(3), 231-236. Dunkerley, D. 2012. Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils, Fowlers Gap, Australia. Hydrological Processes, 26(15), 2211-2224. Iserloh, T., Ries, J.B., Arnaez, J., Boix Fayos, C., Butzen, V., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fernández-Gálvez, J., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Gómez, J.A., Gómez-Macpherson, H., Kuhn, N.J., Lázaro, R., León, F.J., Martínez-Mena, M., Martínez-Murillo, J.F., Marzen, M., Mingorance, M.D., Ortigosa, L., Peters, P., Regüés, D., Ruiz-Sinoga, J.D., Scholten, T., Seeger, M., Solé-Benet, A., Wengel, R., Wirtz, S. 2013. European small portable rainfall simulators: a comparison of rainfall characteristics. Catena, 110, 100-112. Doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2013.05.013 Iserloh, T., Ries, J.B., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Kuhn, N.J., León, F.J., Peters, P., Schindewolf, M., Schmidt, J., Scholten, T., Seeger, M. (2012): Comparative measurements with seven rainfall simulators on uniform bare fallow land. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 57, 193-201. DOI: 10.1127/0372- 8854/2012/S-00118. Ziadat, F. M., Taimeh, A. Y. 2013. Effect of rainfall intensity, slope and land use and antecedent soil moisture on soil erosion in an arid environment. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 582- 590. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2239

Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

PubMed

Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

2013-01-01

Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

Hydrograph simulation models of the Hillsborough and Alafia Rivers, Florida: a preliminary report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, James F.

1972-01-01

Mathematical (digital) models that simulate flood hydrographs from rainfall records have been developed for the following gaging stations in the Hillsborough and Alafia River basins of west-central Florida: Hillsborough River near Tampa, Alafia River at Lithia, and north Prong Alafia River near Keysville. These models, which were developed from historical streamflow and and rainfall records, are based on rainfall-runoff and unit-hydrograph procedures involving an arbitrary separation of the flood hydrograph. These models assume the flood hydrograph to be composed of only two flow components, direct (storm) runoff, and base flow. Expressions describing these two flow components are derived from streamflow and rainfall records and are combined analytically to form algorithms (models), which are programmed for processing on a digital computing system. Most Hillsborough and Alafia River flood discharges can be simulated with expected relative errors less than or equal to 30 percent and flood peaks can be simulated with average relative errors less than 15 percent. Because of the inadequate rainfall network that is used in obtaining input data for the North Prong Alafia River model, simulated peaks are frequently in error by more than 40 percent, particularly for storms having highly variable areal rainfall distribution. Simulation errors are the result of rainfall sample errors and, to a lesser extent, model inadequacy. Data errors associated with the determination of mean basin precipitation are the result of the small number and poor areal distribution of rainfall stations available for use in the study. Model inadequacy, however, is attributed to the basic underlying theory, particularly the rainfall-runoff relation. These models broaden and enhance existing water-management capabilities within these basins by allowing the establishment and implementation of programs providing for continued development in these areas. Specifically, the models serve not only as a basis for forecasting floods, but also for simulating hydrologic information needed in flood-plain mapping and delineating and evaluating alternative flood control and abatement plans.

Quantifying soil surface photolysis under conditions simulating water movement in the field: a new laboratory test design.

PubMed

Hand, Laurence H; Nichols, Carol; Kuet, Sui F; Oliver, Robin G; Harbourt, Christopher M; El-Naggar, Essam M

2015-10-01

Soil surface photolysis can be a significant dissipation pathway for agrochemicals under field conditions, although it is assumed that such degradation ceases once the agrochemical is transported away from the surface following rainfall or irrigation and subsequent drainage of soil porewater. However, as both downward and upward water movements occur under field conditions, relatively mobile compounds may return to the surface, prolonging exposure to ultraviolet light and increasing the potential for degradation by photolysis. To test this hypothesis, a novel experimental system was used to quantify the contribution of photolysis to the overall dissipation of a new herbicide, bicyclopyrone, under conditions that mimicked field studies more closely than the standard laboratory test guidance. Soil cores were taken from 3 US field study sites, and the surfaces were treated with [(14) C]-bicyclopyrone. The radioactivity was redistributed throughout the cores using a simulated rainfall event, following which the cores were incubated under a xenon-arc lamp with continuous provision of moisture from below and a wind simulator to induce evaporation. After only 2 d, most of the test compound had returned to the soil surface. Significantly more degradation was observed in the irradiated samples than in a parallel dark control sample. Degradation rates were very similar to those observed in both the thin layer photolysis study and the field dissipation studies and significantly faster than in the soil metabolism studies conducted in the dark. Thus, for highly soluble, mobile agrochemicals, such as bicyclopyrone, photolysis is not terminated permanently by rainfall or irrigation but can resume following transport to the surface in evaporating water. © 2015 SETAC.

Calibration of three rainfall simulators with automatic measurement methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roldan, Margarita

2010-05-01

CALIBRATION OF THREE RAINFALL SIMULATORS WITH AUTOMATIC MEASUREMENT METHODS M. Roldán (1), I. Martín (2), F. Martín (2), S. de Alba(3), M. Alcázar(3), F.I. Cermeño(3) 1 Grupo de Investigación Ecología y Gestión Forestal Sostenible. ECOGESFOR-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. E.U.I.T. Forestal. Avda. Ramiro de Maeztu s/n. Ciudad Universitaria. 28040 Madrid. margarita.roldan@upm.es 2 E.U.I.T. Forestal. Avda. Ramiro de Maeztu s/n. Ciudad Universitaria. 28040 Madrid. 3 Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Ciudad Universitaria s/n. 28040 Madrid The rainfall erosivity is the potential ability of rain to cause erosion. It is function of the physical characteristics of rainfall (Hudson, 1971). Most expressions describing erosivity are related to kinetic energy or momentum and so with drop mass or size and fall velocity. Therefore, research on factors determining erosivity leds to the necessity to study the relation between fall height and fall velocity for different drop sizes, generated in a rainfall simulator (Epema G.F.and Riezebos H.Th, 1983) Rainfall simulators are one of the most used tools for erosion studies and are used to determine fall velocity and drop size. Rainfall simulators allow repeated and multiple measurements The main reason for use of rainfall simulation as a research tool is to reproduce in a controlled way the behaviour expected in the natural environment. But in many occasions when simulated rain is used in order to compare it with natural rain, there is a lack of correspondence between natural and simulated rain and this can introduce some doubt about validity of data because the characteristics of natural rain are not adequately represented in rainfall simulation research (Dunkerley D., 2008). Many times the rainfall simulations have high rain rates and they do not resemble natural rain events and these measures are not comparables. And besides the intensity is related to the kinetic energy which determines the rainfall erosivity (Dunkerley D., 2008). A special attention must be paid to the experimental design and the understanding of the measurements obtained. The objective of this study is the calibration of simulated rain. In order to achieve this objective a rainfall simulator and disdrometer have been used. The first one is a nozzle type and its sprinkler system was located at different heights, three different spray nozzles supplied the water with known pressure. The simulated rainfall presented different intensities, drop diameters distribution and so different kinetic energy. The instrument of measurement for registering data is the disdrometer (Joss and Waldvogel, 1967) which provides the total number of impacts of raindrops, minute after minute, grouped in 20 classes according to their size which allows the real time measurements of the drop diameter distributions, kinetic energy per minute and intensity per minute. Disdrometer registers data in supposing drops fall down with terminal velocity but this velocity can reach up to 7-9 m of height in natural raindrop, depending on drop diameters. If the height of simulator is high enough the drops could recuperate their terminal velocities and their kinetic energies could be true. The nozzles were located to different heights in order to achieve these terminal velocities. These heights vary depending on the nozzles used, when the drops supplied by the nozzle are smaller the terminal velocity is reached sooner than when the drops are bigger. The physical characteristics of simulated rainfall in the three nozzles, intensity, drop diameter distributions and kinetic energy, are known and steady when the drops supplied by the nozzles reach terminal velocities.

Dredging Operations Technical Support Program. Management Strategy for Disposal of Dredged Material: Contaminant Testing and Controls.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

laboratory test using a rainfall simulator has been developed ( Westerdahl and Skogerboe 1981) and is being used to predict surface runoff water quality...Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act of 1972)," US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Miss. Westerdahl , H. E., and

High-resolution stochastic generation of extreme rainfall intensity for urban drainage modelling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Urban drainage response is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall. Therefore, measuring and simulating rainfall at a high spatial and temporal resolution is a fundamental step to fully assess urban drainage system reliability and related uncertainties. This is even more relevant when considering extreme rainfall events. However, the current space-time rainfall models have limitations in capturing extreme rainfall intensity statistics for short durations. Here, we use the STREAP (Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) model, which is a novel stochastic rainfall generator for simulating high-resolution rainfall fields that preserve the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall and its statistical characteristics. The model enables a generation of rain fields at 102 m and minute scales in a fast and computer-efficient way matching the requirements for hydrological analysis of urban drainage systems. The STREAP model was applied successfully in the past to generate high-resolution extreme rainfall intensities over a small domain. A sub-catchment in the city of Luzern (Switzerland) was chosen as a case study to: (i) evaluate the ability of STREAP to disaggregate extreme rainfall intensities for urban drainage applications; (ii) assessing the role of stochastic climate variability of rainfall in flow response and (iii) evaluate the degree of non-linearity between extreme rainfall intensity and system response (i.e. flow) for a small urban catchment. The channel flow at the catchment outlet is simulated by means of a calibrated hydrodynamic sewer model.

On the Numerical Study of Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Ching-Sen; Chen, Yi-Leng; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lin, Pay-Liam; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Heavy rainfall events are frequently observed over the western side of the CMR (central mountain range), which runs through Taiwan in a north-south orientation, in a southwesterly flow regime and over the northeastern side of the CMR in a northeasterly flow regime. Previous studies have revealed the mechanisms by which the heavy rainfall events are formed. Some of them have examined characteristics of the heavy rainfall via numerical simulations. In this paper, some of the previous numerical studies on heavy rainfall events around Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season (May and June), summer (non-typhoon cases) and autumn will be reviewed. Associated mechanisms proposed from observational studies will be reviewed first, and then characteristics of numerically simulated heavy rainfall events will be presented. The formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall from simulated results and from observational analysis are then compared and discussed. Based on these previous modeling studies, we will also discuss what are the major observations and modeling processes which will be needed for understanding the heavy precipitation in the future.

Rainfall estimates for hydrological models: Comparing rain gauge, radar and microwave link data as input for the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, Claudia; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of differences in rainfall estimates on discharge simulations in a lowland catchment by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in the Hupsel Brook catchment. We used two automatic rain gauges with hourly resolution, located inside the catchment (the base run) and 30 km northeast. Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. Traditionally, the precipitation research community places emphasis on quantifying spatial errors and uncertainty, but for hydrological applications, temporal errors and uncertainty should be quantified as well. Its memory makes the hydrologic system sensitive to missed or badly timed rainfall events, but also emphasizes the effect of a bias in rainfall estimates. Systematic underestimation of rainfall by the uncorrected operational radar product leads to very dry model states and an increasing underestimation of discharge. Using the rain gauge 30 km northeast of the catchment yields good results for climatological studies, but not for forecasting individual floods. Simulating discharge using the maps derived from microwave link data and the gauge-adjusted radar product yields good results for both events and climatological studies. This indicates that these products can be used in catchments without gauges in or near the catchment. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. Improving rainfall measurements can improve the performance of rainfall-runoff models, indicating their potential for reducing flood damage through real-time control.

Evaluation of NU-WRF Rainfall Forecasts for IFloodS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Di; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Petersen, Walter

2016-01-01

The Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in eastern Iowa as a pre- GPM-launch campaign from 1 May to 15 June 2013. During the campaign period, real time forecasts are conducted utilizing NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to support the everyday weather briefing. In this study, two sets of the NU-WRF rainfall forecasts are evaluated with Stage IV and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE), with the objective to understand the impact of Land Surface initialization on the predicted precipitation. NU-WRF is also compared with North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) 12 kilometer forecast. In general, NU-WRF did a good job at capturing individual precipitation events. NU-WRF is also able to replicate a better rainfall spatial distribution compare with NAM. Further sensitivity tests show that the high-resolution makes a positive impact on rainfall forecast. The two sets of NU-WRF simulations produce very close rainfall characteristics. The Land surface initialization do not show significant impact on short term rainfall forecast, and it is largely due to the soil conditions during the field campaign period.

Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

2015-04-01

The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread among the ensemble members of individual model, strong teleconnection (correlation analysis) with SST, coefficient of variation, inter-annual variability, analysis of Taylor diagram, etc. suggest that there is a need to improve coupled model instead of uncoupled model for the development of a better dynamical seasonal forecast system.

Synthetic generation of spatially high resolution extreme rainfall in Japan using Monte Carlo simulation with AMeDAS analyzed rainfall data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haruki, W.; Iseri, Y.; Takegawa, S.; Sasaki, O.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Natural disasters caused by heavy rainfall occur every year in Japan. Effective countermeasures against such events are important. In 2015, a catastrophic flood occurred in Kinu river basin, which locates in the northern part of Kanto region. The remarkable feature of this flood event was not only in the intensity of rainfall but also in the spatial characteristics of heavy rainfall area. The flood was caused by continuous overlapping of heavy rainfall area over the Kinu river basin, suggesting consideration of spatial extent is quite important to assess impacts of heavy rainfall events. However, the spatial extent of heavy rainfall events cannot be properly measured through rainfall measurement by rain gauges at observation points. On the other hand, rainfall measurements by radar observations provide spatially and temporarily high resolution rainfall data which would be useful to catch the characteristics of heavy rainfall events. For long term effective countermeasure, extreme heavy rainfall scenario considering rainfall area and distribution is required. In this study, a new method for generating extreme heavy rainfall events using Monte Carlo Simulation has been developed in order to produce extreme heavy rainfall scenario. This study used AMeDAS analyzed precipitation data which is high resolution grid precipitation data made by Japan Meteorological Agency. Depth area duration (DAD) analysis has been conducted to extract extreme rainfall events in the past, considering time and spatial scale. In the Monte Carlo Simulation, extreme rainfall event is generated based on events extracted by DAD analysis. Extreme heavy rainfall events are generated in specific region in Japan and the types of generated extreme heavy rainfall events can be changed by varying the parameter. For application of this method, we focused on Kanto region in Japan. As a result, 3000 years rainfall data are generated. 100 -year probable rainfall and return period of flood in Kinu River Basin (2015) are obtained using generated data. We compared 100-year probable rainfall calculated by this method with other traditional method. New developed method enables us to generate extreme rainfall events considering time and spatial scale and produce extreme rainfall scenario.

Simulation of streamflow and estimation of ground-water recharge in the Upper Cibolo Creek Watershed, south-central Texas, 1992-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ockerman, Darwin J.

2007-01-01

A watershed model (Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN) was developed, calibrated, and tested by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, San Antonio River Authority, San Antonio Water System, and Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, to simulate streamflow and estimate ground-water recharge in the upper Cibolo Creek watershed in south-central Texas. Rainfall, evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were collected during 1992?2004 for model calibrations and simulations. Estimates of average ground-water recharge during 1992?2004 from simulation were 79,800 acre-feet (5.47 inches) per year or about 15 percent of rainfall. Most of the recharge (about 74 percent) occurred as infiltration of streamflow in Cibolo Creek. The remaining recharge occurred as diffuse infiltration of rainfall through the soil and rock layers and karst features. Most recharge (about 77 percent) occurred in the Trinity aquifer outcrop. The remaining 23 percent occurred in the downstream part of the watershed that includes the Edwards aquifer recharge zone (outcrop). Streamflow and recharge in the study area are greatly influenced by large storms. Storms during June 1997, October 1998, and July 2002 accounted for about 11 percent of study-area rainfall, 61 percent of streamflow, and 16 percent of the total ground-water recharge during 1992?2004. Annual streamflow and recharge also were highly variable. During 1999, a dry year with about 16 inches of rain and no measurable runoff at the watershed outlet, recharge in the watershed amounted to only 0.99 inch compared with 13.43 inches during 1992, a relatively wet year with about 54 inches of rainfall. Simulation of flood-control/recharge-enhancement structures showed that certain structures might reduce flood peaks and increase recharge. Simulation of individual structures on tributaries showed relatively little effect. Larger structures on the main stem of Cibolo Creek were more effective than structures on tributaries, both in terms of flood-peak reduction and recharge enhancement. One simulated scenario that incorporated two main-stem structures resulted in a 37-percent reduction of peak flow at the watershed outlet and increases in stream-channel recharge of 6.6 percent in the Trinity aquifer outcrop and 12.6 percent in the Edwards aquifer (recharge zone) outcrop.

Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, Fabio

2017-04-01

The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 86, pp. 264 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.002

A Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for urban rainfall error modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa Rodriguez, Susana; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick; Onof, Christian

2016-04-01

Rainfall estimates of the highest possible accuracy and resolution are required for urban hydrological applications, given the small size and fast response which characterise urban catchments. While significant progress has been made in recent years towards meeting rainfall input requirements for urban hydrology -including increasing use of high spatial resolution radar rainfall estimates in combination with point rain gauge records- rainfall estimates will never be perfect and the true rainfall field is, by definition, unknown [1]. Quantifying the residual errors in rainfall estimates is crucial in order to understand their reliability, as well as the impact that their uncertainty may have in subsequent runoff estimates. The quantification of errors in rainfall estimates has been an active topic of research for decades. However, existing rainfall error models have several shortcomings, including the fact that they are limited to describing errors associated to a single data source (i.e. errors associated to rain gauge measurements or radar QPEs alone) and to a single representative error source (e.g. radar-rain gauge differences, spatial temporal resolution). Moreover, rainfall error models have been mostly developed for and tested at large scales. Studies at urban scales are mostly limited to analyses of propagation of errors in rain gauge records-only through urban drainage models and to tests of model sensitivity to uncertainty arising from unmeasured rainfall variability. Only few radar rainfall error models -originally developed for large scales- have been tested at urban scales [2] and have been shown to fail to well capture small-scale storm dynamics, including storm peaks, which are of utmost important for urban runoff simulations. In this work a Monte-Carlo Bayesian framework for rainfall error modelling at urban scales is introduced, which explicitly accounts for relevant errors (arising from insufficient accuracy and/or resolution) in multiple data sources (in this case radar and rain gauge estimates typically available at present), while at the same time enabling dynamic combination of these data sources (thus not only quantifying uncertainty, but also reducing it). This model generates an ensemble of merged rainfall estimates, which can then be used as input to urban drainage models in order to examine how uncertainties in rainfall estimates propagate to urban runoff estimates. The proposed model is tested using as case study a detailed rainfall and flow dataset, and a carefully verified urban drainage model of a small (~9 km2) pilot catchment in North-East London. The model has shown to well characterise residual errors in rainfall data at urban scales (which remain after the merging), leading to improved runoff estimates. In fact, the majority of measured flow peaks are bounded within the uncertainty area produced by the runoff ensembles generated with the ensemble rainfall inputs. REFERENCES: [1] Ciach, G. J. & Krajewski, W. F. (1999). On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Advances in Water Resources, 22 (6), 585-595. [2] Rico-Ramirez, M. A., Liguori, S. & Schellart, A. N. A. (2015). Quantifying radar-rainfall uncertainties in urban drainage flow modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 17-28.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Chemistry of through-fall and stem-flow leachate following rainfall simulation over pinyon and juniper

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We hypothesized that leachate from pinyon and juniper canopies, following rainfall events, may contribute sizable levels of solutes and C to the soil surface. We quantified solutes and dissolved carbon in stem-flow (SF) and through-fall (TF) following replicated rainfall simulation events in a pinyo...

Rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010 were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied, then halted 60 minutes after initiation of runoff, with plot-scale monitoring of runoff ever...

Evaluation of satellite and simulated rainfall products for hydrological applications in the Notwane catchment, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenabatho, P. K.; Parida, B. P.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2017-08-01

In semi-arid catchments, hydrological modeling, water resources planning and management are hampered by insufficient spatial rainfall data which is usually derived from limited rain gauge networks. Satellite products are potential candidates to augment the limited spatial rainfall data in these areas. In this paper, the utility of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product (3B42 v7) is evaluated using data from the Notwane catchment in Botswana. In addition, rainfall simulations obtained from a multi-site stochastic rainfall model based on the generalised linear models (GLMs) were used as additional spatial rainfall estimates. These rainfall products were compared to the observed rainfall data obtained from six (6) rainfall stations available in the catchment for the period 1998-2012. The results show that in general the two approaches produce reasonable spatial rainfall estimates. However, the TRMM products provided better spatial rainfall estimates compared to the GLM rainfall outputs on an average, as more than 90% of the monthly rainfall variations were explained by the TRMM compared to 80% from the GLMs. However, there is still uncertainty associated mainly with limited rainfall stations, and the inability of the two products to capture unusually high rainfall values in the data sets. Despite this observation, rainfall indices computed to further assess the daily rainfall products (i.e. rainfall occurrence and amounts, length of dry spells) were adequately represented by the TRMM data compared to the GLMs. Performance from the GLMs is expected to improve with addition of further rainfall predictors. A combination of these rainfall products allows for reasonable spatial rainfall estimates and temporal (short term future) rainfall simulations from the TRMM and GLMs, respectively. The results have significant implications on water resources planning and management in the catchment which has, for the past three years, been experiencing prolonged droughts as shown by the drying of Gaborone dam (currently at a record low of 1.6% full), which is the main source of water supply to the city of Gaborone and neighbouring townships in Botswana.

Simulated transient thermal infrared emissions of forest canopies during rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, Jerrell R.; Hawkins, William R.; Howington, Stacy E.; Kala, Raju V.

2017-05-01

We describe the development of a centimeter-scale resolution simulation framework for a theoretical tree canopy that includes rainfall deposition, evaporation, and thermal infrared emittance. Rainfall is simulated as discrete raindrops with specified rate. The individual droplets will either fall through the canopy and intersect the ground; adhere to a leaf; bounce or shatter on impact with a leaf resulting in smaller droplets that are propagated through the canopy. Surface physical temperatures are individually determined by surface water evaporation, spatially varying within canopy wind velocities, solar radiation, and water vapor pressure. Results are validated by theoretical canopy gap and gross rainfall interception models.

On the dust load and rainfall relationship in South Asia: an analysis from CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

2018-01-01

This study is aimed at examining the consistency of the relationship between load of dust and rainfall simulated by different climate models and its implication for the Indian summer monsoon system. Monthly mean outputs of 12 climate models, obtained from the archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period 1951-2004, are analyzed to investigate the relationship between dust and rainfall. Comparative analysis of the model simulated precipitation with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall, CRU TS3.21 and GPCP version 2.2 data sets show significant differences between the spatial patterns of JJAS rainfall as well as annual cycle of rainfall simulated by various models and observations. Similarly, significant inter-model differences are also noted in the simulation of load of dust, nevertheless it is further noted that most of the CMIP5 models are able to capture the major dust sources across the study region. Although the scatter plot analysis and the lead-lag pattern correlation between the dust load and the rainfall show strong relationship between the dust load over distant sources and the rainfall in the South Asian region in individual models, the temporal scale of this association indicates large differences amongst the models. Our results caution that it would be pre-mature to draw any robust conclusions on the time scale of the relationship between dust and the rainfall in the South Asian region based on either CMIP5 results or limited number of previous studies. Hence, we would like to emphasize upon the fact that any conclusions drawn on the relationship between the dust load and the South Asian rainfall using model simulation is highly dependent on the degree of complexity incorporated in those models such as the representation of aerosol life cycle, their interaction with clouds, precipitation and other components of the climate system.

Simulation of flow and effects of best-management practices in the upper Seco Creek basin, south-central Texas, 1991-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, David S.; Raines, Timothy H.

2002-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program— FORTRAN model was used to assess the effects of two best-management practices—brush management (removal of woody species locally known as cedar) and weather modification (rainfall enhancement)—on selected hydrologic processes in six subbasins that compose the upper Seco Creek Basin in south-central Texas. A parameter set for use with the model was developed to simulate surface-water-budget components for the six gaged subbasins.Simulation of brush management, represented by decreases in simulated evapotranspiration of 5 to 6 percent, resulted in increases of 1 to 47 percent in annual runoff and increases of 14 to 48 percent in surface runoff for the six subbasins. Simulation of weather modification, represented by a 10-percent increase in rainfall totals and intensities, resulted in increases of 5 to 6 percent in evapotranspiration, increases of 2 to 92 percent in annual runoff, and increases of 36 to 101 percent in surface runoff. Rainfall and runoff data for the study were collected during January 1, 1991–September 30, 1998. Data from 60 storms were used for the simulations. The model was calibrated with data from 33 storms (in two subbasins) and tested with data from 27 storms (in four subbasins). Twenty-one pervious land segments were defined for the study on the basis of geology and land cover. An error analysis and a sensitivity analysis were done on each subbasin, and the results were used to develop the final parameter set.

Rainfall-induced release of microbes from manure: model development, parameter estimation, and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A series of simulated rainfall-runoff experiments with applications of different manure types (cattle solid pats, poultry dry litter, swine slurry) were conducted across four seasons on a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 rainfall-runoff events. Simulating time-varying re...

Climate change projections for Tamil Nadu, India: deriving high-resolution climate data by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bal, Prasanta Kumar; Ramachandran, A.; Geetha, R.; Bhaskaran, B.; Thirumurugan, P.; Indumathi, J.; Jayanthi, N.

2016-02-01

In this paper, we present regional climate change projections for the Tamil Nadu state of India, simulated by the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model. The model is run at 25 km horizontal resolution driven by lateral boundary conditions generated by a perturbed physical ensemble of 17 simulations produced by a version of Hadley Centre coupled climate model, known as HadCM3Q under A1B scenario. The large scale features of these 17 simulations were evaluated for the target region to choose lateral boundary conditions from six members that represent a range of climate variations over the study region. The regional climate, known as PRECIS, was then run 130 years from 1970. The analyses primarily focus on maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall over the region. For the Tamil Nadu as a whole, the projections of maximum temperature show an increase of 1.0, 2.2 and 3.1 °C for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095), respectively, with respect to baseline period (1970-2000). Similarly, the projections of minimum temperature show an increase of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.5 °C, respectively. This increasing trend is statistically significant (Mann-Kendall trend test). The annual rainfall projections for the same periods indicate a general decrease in rainfall of about 2-7, 1-4 and 4-9 %, respectively. However, significant exceptions are noticed over some pockets of western hilly areas and high rainfall areas where increases in rainfall are seen. There are also indications of increasing heavy rainfall events during the northeast monsoon season and a slight decrease during the southwest monsoon season. Such an approach of using climate models may maximize the utility of high-resolution climate change information for impact-adaptation-vulnerability assessments.

Identification of the Key Weather Factors Affecting Overwintering Success of Apolygus lucorum Eggs in Dead Host Tree Branches

PubMed Central

Pan, Hongsheng; Liu, Bing; Lu, Yanhui; Desneux, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of weather on insect population dynamics is crucial to simulate and forecast pest outbreaks, which is becoming increasingly important with the effects of climate change. The mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is an important pest on cotton, fruit trees and other crops in China, and primarily lays its eggs on dead parts of tree branches in the fall for subsequent overwintering. As such, the eggs that hatch the following spring are most strongly affected by ambient weather factors, rather than by host plant biology. In this study, we investigated the effects of three major weather factors: temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, on the hatching rate of A. lucorum eggs overwintering on dead branches of Chinese date tree (Ziziphus jujuba). Under laboratory conditions, rainfall (simulated via soaking) was necessary for the hatching of overwintering A. lucorum eggs. In the absence of rainfall (unsoaked branches), very few nymphs successfully emerged under any of the tested combinations of temperature and relative humidity. In contrast, following simulated rainfall, the hatching rate of the overwintering eggs increased dramatically. Hatching rate and developmental rate were positively correlated with relative humidity and temperature, respectively. Under field conditions, the abundance of nymphs derived from overwintering eggs was positively correlated with rainfall amount during the spring seasons of 2009–2013, while the same was not true for temperature and relative humidity. Overall, our findings indicate that rainfall is the most important factor affecting the hatching rate of overwintering A. lucorum eggs on dead plant parts and nymph population levels during the spring season. It provides the basic information for precisely forecasting the emergence of A. lucorum and subsequently timely managing its population in spring, which will make it possible to regional control of this insect pest widely occurring in multiple crops in summer. PMID:24705353

Identification of the key weather factors affecting overwintering success of Apolygus lucorum eggs in dead host tree branches.

PubMed

Pan, Hongsheng; Liu, Bing; Lu, Yanhui; Desneux, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of weather on insect population dynamics is crucial to simulate and forecast pest outbreaks, which is becoming increasingly important with the effects of climate change. The mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is an important pest on cotton, fruit trees and other crops in China, and primarily lays its eggs on dead parts of tree branches in the fall for subsequent overwintering. As such, the eggs that hatch the following spring are most strongly affected by ambient weather factors, rather than by host plant biology. In this study, we investigated the effects of three major weather factors: temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, on the hatching rate of A. lucorum eggs overwintering on dead branches of Chinese date tree (Ziziphus jujuba). Under laboratory conditions, rainfall (simulated via soaking) was necessary for the hatching of overwintering A. lucorum eggs. In the absence of rainfall (unsoaked branches), very few nymphs successfully emerged under any of the tested combinations of temperature and relative humidity. In contrast, following simulated rainfall, the hatching rate of the overwintering eggs increased dramatically. Hatching rate and developmental rate were positively correlated with relative humidity and temperature, respectively. Under field conditions, the abundance of nymphs derived from overwintering eggs was positively correlated with rainfall amount during the spring seasons of 2009-2013, while the same was not true for temperature and relative humidity. Overall, our findings indicate that rainfall is the most important factor affecting the hatching rate of overwintering A. lucorum eggs on dead plant parts and nymph population levels during the spring season. It provides the basic information for precisely forecasting the emergence of A. lucorum and subsequently timely managing its population in spring, which will make it possible to regional control of this insect pest widely occurring in multiple crops in summer.

Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial variability of precipitation will help in the planning and management of the built environment more efficiently.

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

Impact of animal waste application on runoff water quality in field experimental plots.

PubMed

Hill, Dagne D; Owens, William E; Tchoounwou, Paul B

2005-08-01

Animal waste from dairy and poultry operations is an economical and commonly used fertilizer in the state of Louisiana. The application of animal waste to pasture lands not only is a source of fertilizer, but also allows for a convenient method of waste disposal. The disposal of animal wastes on land is a potential nonpoint source of water degradation. Water degradation and human health is a major concern when considering the disposal of large quantities of animal waste. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of animal waste application on biological (fecal coliform, Enterobacter spp. and Escherichia coli) and physical/chemical (temperature, pH, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, phosphate, copper, zinc, and sulfate) characteristics of runoff water in experimental plots. The effects of the application of animal waste have been evaluated by utilizing experimental plots and simulated rainfall events. Samples of runoff water were collected and analyzed for fecal coliforms. Fecal coliforms isolated from these samples were identified to the species level. Chemical analysis was performed following standard test protocols. An analysis of temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, iron, copper, phosphate, potassium, sulfate, zinc and bacterial levels was performed following standard test protocols as presented in Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater [1]. In the experimental plots, less time was required in the tilled broiler litter plots for the measured chemicals to decrease below the initial pre-treatment levels. A decrease of over 50% was noted between the first and second rainfall events for sulfate levels. This decrease was seen after only four simulated rainfall events in tilled broiler litter plots whereas broiler litter plots required eight simulated rainfall events to show this same type of reduction. A reverse trend was seen in the broiler litter plots and the tilled broiler plots for potassium. Bacteria numbers present after the simulated rainfall events were above 200/100 ml of sample water. It can be concluded that: 1) non-point source pollution has a significant effect on bacterial and nutrients levels in runoff water and in water resources; 2) land application of animal waste for soil fertilization makes a significant contribution to water pollution; 3) the use of tilling can significantly reduce the amount of nutrients available in runoff water.

Impact of Animal Waste Application on Runoff Water Quality in Field Experimental Plots

PubMed Central

Hill, Dagne D.; Owens, William E.; Tchounwou, Paul B.

2005-01-01

Animal waste from dairy and poultry operations is an economical and commonly used fertilizer in the state of Louisiana. The application of animal waste to pasture lands not only is a source of fertilizer, but also allows for a convenient method of waste disposal. The disposal of animal wastes on land is a potential nonpoint source of water degradation. Water degradation and human health is a major concern when considering the disposal of large quantities of animal waste. The objective of this research was to determine the effect of animal waste application on biological (fecal coliform, Enterobacter spp. and Escherichia coli) and physical/chemical (temperature, pH, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, phosphate, copper, zinc, and sulfate) characteristics of runoff water in experimental plots. The effects of the application of animal waste have been evaluated by utilizing experimental plots and simulated rainfall events. Samples of runoff water were collected and analyzed for fecal coliforms. Fecal coliforms isolated from these samples were identified to the species level. Chemical analysis was performed following standard test protocols. An analysis of temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, iron, copper, phosphate, potassium, sulfate, zinc and bacterial levels was performed following standard test protocols as presented in Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater [1]. In the experimental plots, less time was required in the tilled broiler litter plots for the measured chemicals to decrease below the initial pre-treatment levels. A decrease of over 50% was noted between the first and second rainfall events for sulfate levels. This decrease was seen after only four simulated rainfall events in tilled broiler litter plots whereas broiler litter plots required eight simulated rainfall events to show this same type of reduction. A reverse trend was seen in the broiler litter plots and the tilled broiler plots for potassium. Bacteria numbers present after the simulated rainfall events were above 200/100 ml of sample water. It can be concluded that: 1) non-point source pollution has a significant effect on bacterial and nutrients levels in runoff water and in water resources; 2) land application of animal waste for soil fertilization makes a significant contribution to water pollution; 3) the use of tilling can significantly reduce the amount of nutrients available in runoff water. PMID:16705834

Vegetation-rainfall feedbacks across the Sahel: a combined observational and modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

The Sahel rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability. Past modeling studies have concluded that the Sahel rainfall variability is primarily driven by oceanic forcings and amplified by land-atmosphere interactions. However, the relative importance of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers has never been assessed from observations. The current understanding of vegetation's impacts on climate, i.e. positive vegetation-rainfall feedback through the albedo, moisture, and momentum mechanisms, comes from untested models. Neither the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback, nor the underlying mechanisms, has been fully resolved in observations. The current study fills the knowledge gap about the observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, through the application of the multivariate statistical method Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) to observational data. According to GEFA, the observed oceanic impacts dominate over terrestrial impacts on Sahel rainfall, except in the post-monsoon period. Positive leaf area index (LAI) anomalies favor an extended, wetter monsoon across the Sahel, largely due to moisture recycling. The albedo mechanism is not responsible for this positive vegetation feedback on the seasonal-interannual time scale, which is too short for a grass-desert transition. A low-level stabilization and subsidence is observed in response to increased LAI - potentially responsible for a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback. However, the positive moisture feedback overwhelms the negative momentum feedback, resulting in an observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback. We further applied GEFA to a fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) control run, as an example of evaluating climate models against the GEFA-based observational benchmark. In contrast to the observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, CESM simulates a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback across Sahel, peaking in the pre-monsoon season. The simulated negative feedback is largely due to the low-level stabilization caused by increased LAI. Positive moisture feedback is present in the CESM simulation, but an order weaker than the observed and weaker than the negative momentum feedback, thereby leading to the simulated negative vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.

Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

PubMed Central

Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

Use of a large-scale rainfall simulator reveals novel insights into stemflow generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levia, D. F., Jr.; Iida, S. I.; Nanko, K.; Sun, X.; Shinohara, Y.; Sakai, N.

2017-12-01

Detailed knowledge of stemflow generation and its effects on both hydrological and biogoechemical cycling is important to achieve a holistic understanding of forest ecosystems. Field studies and a smaller set of experiments performed under laboratory conditions have increased our process-based knowledge of stemflow production. Building upon these earlier works, a large-scale rainfall simulator was employed to deepen our understanding of stemflow generation processes. The use of the large-scale rainfall simulator provides a unique opportunity to examine a range of rainfall intensities under constant conditions that are difficult under natural conditions due to the variable nature of rainfall intensities in the field. Stemflow generation and production was examined for three species- Cryptomeria japonica D. Don (Japanese cedar), Chamaecyparis obtusa (Siebold & Zucc.) Endl. (Japanese cypress), Zelkova serrata Thunb. (Japanese zelkova)- under both leafed and leafless conditions at several different rainfall intensities (15, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 100 mm h-1) using a large-scale rainfall simulator in National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (Tsukuba, Japan). Stemflow production and rates and funneling ratios were examined in relation to both rainfall intensity and canopy structure. Preliminary results indicate a dynamic and complex response of the funneling ratios of individual trees to different rainfall intensities among the species examined. This is partly the result of different canopy structures, hydrophobicity of vegetative surfaces, and differential wet-up processes across species and rainfall intensities. This presentation delves into these differences and attempts to distill them into generalizable patterns, which can advance our theories of stemflow generation processes and ultimately permit better stewardship of forest resources. ________________ Funding note: This research was supported by JSPS Invitation Fellowship for Research in Japan (Grant Award No.: S16088) and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Award No.: JP15H05626).

Can we improve streamflow simulation by using higher resolution rainfall information?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobligeois, Florent; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles

2013-04-01

The catchment response to rainfall is the interplay between space-time variability of precipitation, catchment characteristics and antecedent hydrological conditions. Precipitation dominates the high frequency hydrological response, and its simulation is thus dependent on the way rainfall is represented. One of the characteristics which distinguishes distributed from lumped models is their ability to represent explicitly the spatial variability of precipitation and catchment characteristics. The sensitivity of runoff hydrographs to the spatial variability of forcing data has been a major concern of researchers over the last three decades. However, although the literature on the relationship between spatial rainfall and runoff response is abundant, results are contrasted and sometimes contradictory. Several studies concluded that including information on rainfall spatial distribution improves discharge simulation (e.g. Ajami et al., 2004, among others) whereas other studies showed the lack of significant improvement in simulations with better information on rainfall spatial pattern (e.g. Andréassian et al., 2004, among others). The difficulties to reach a clear consensus is mainly due to the fact that each modeling study is implemented only on a few catchments whereas the impact of the spatial distribution of rainfall on runoff is known to be catchment and event characteristics-dependent. Many studies are virtual experiments and only compare flow simulations, which makes it difficult to reach conclusions transposable to real-life case studies. Moreover, the hydrological rainfall-runoff models differ between the studies and the parameterization strategies sometimes tend to advantage the distributed approach (or the lumped one). Recently, Météo-France developed a rainfall reanalysis over the whole French territory at the 1-kilometer resolution and the hourly time step over a 10-year period combining radar data and raingauge measurements: weather radar data were corrected and adjusted with both hourly and daily raingauge data. Based on this new high resolution product, we propose a framework to evaluate the improvements in streamflow simulation by using higher resolution rainfall information. Semi-distributed modelling is performed for different spatial resolution of precipitation forcing: from lumped to semi-distributed simulations. Here we do not work on synthetic (simulated) streamflow, but with actual measurements, on a large set of 181 French catchments representing a variety of size and climate. The rainfall-runoff model is re-calibrated for each resolution of rainfall spatial distribution over a 5-year sub-period and evaluated on the complementary sub-period in validation mode. The results are analysed by catchment classes based on catchment area and for various types of rainfall events based on the spatial variability of precipitation. References Ajami, N. K., Gupta, H. V, Wagener, T. & Sorooshian, S. (2004) Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrologic model for streamflow estimation along a river system. Journal of Hydrology 298(1-4), 112-135. Andréassian, V., Oddos, A., Michel, C., Anctil, F., Perrin, C. & Loumagne, C. (2004) Impact of spatial aggregation of inputs and parameters on the efficiency of rainfall-runoff models: A theoretical study using chimera watersheds. Water Resources Research 40(5), 1-9.

Design and application of a drip-type rainfall simulator adapted to steep topography and low intensity-rainfall characteristics in the Coastal Range of Southern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Christian; Anton, Huber

2010-05-01

Besides being adaptable for measuring infiltration, overland flow and sediment transport simultaneously, rainfall simulator systems allow the observation of the processes of runoff generation and soil erosion, too. This enables the assimilation of additional qualitative data and makes a rainfall simulator system a very valid method in the investigation of soil-hydrological response to precipitation events. In the present study a cheap, handy, transportable and easy to set up rainfall simulator applicable for the steep terrain conditions of the Southern Chilean Coastal range was designed based on Bowyer-Bower & Burt (1989). The used drip-type rainfall simulator had to fulfill two main requirements: adaptive to steep topography and little in water consumption. The used simulator is set up by a dismountable rectangular metal rack of 0.5x1.0m basal surface and 2.5m height. The metallic structure enables the attachment of plastic boards for wind protection. Fixable telescopic extensions allow a firm adjustment to slopes up to 45°. Horizontal metallic frames at different heights increase the stability of the structure and carry the devices of the rainfall simulator. On the uppermost frame, two containers provided with calibrated scales spend the water to a fast reacting receptacle assuring constant water supply and pressure by the Mariotte's principle. The rainfall intensity is adjusted by a control-panel according to the Bernoulli principle. This guarantees a constant water flow which was verified by the water-volume leaving the calibrated containers on top. Interchangeable glass-tubes of different diameters in the control-panel permit the generation of various precipitation intensities (4-60 mm/h; SD =0.16mm). The frame beneath carries an acrylic glass box with approx. 600 drop-formers (fishing line inside a 0.76mm Tygon-tube) at its bottom. 20 cm below, a framed 5mm-spacing-mesh serves as a raindrop randomizer. At the base of the simulator sheet metals avoid lateral leakage of overland flow leading the runoff to a cemented trough. The experiments were conducted until a steady state infiltration rate was observed or the runoff ceased. The runoff samples are taken manually in intervals of 5 or 10 min depending on the simulated intensity and amount of runoff. All bottled samples were filtered to determine the sediment concentration. To test the system's effectiveness a pilot-study was conducted in a granitic soil catchment. The obtained values of the infiltration rate indicate that soil physical properties in this area facilitate rapid infiltration and slope did not show main influence. The sediment concentration showed high variability due to heterogeneity of surface and soil characteristics. In a succeeding study 36 rainfall simulations prior to clear-cuts during dry summer-season and rainy winter-season were carried out to determine the effect of both silvicultural practices on micro-scale. Soil hydrological response showed preferential flow patterns and variable infiltration-rates due to topsoil disturbance in the course of previous timber-harvests and differences in soil depth, hydrophobic organic layers and imbedded rocks. Maximum steady state infiltration rates ranged between 7.3 and 32.3 mm/h. In contrast to the expected results, maximum infiltration occurred at steep slopes. Only little sediment transport was measured. Only under high precipitation on steep slopes a moderate sediment transport (0.074 g/l) was documented. Post clear-cut infiltration experiments will be conducted in Jan.-March 2010. Furthermore, a modified tipping-bucket-device will be installed as a runoff collector-device to gain better temporal resolution.

Simulation of precipitation by weather pattern and frontal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert

1995-12-01

Daily rainfall from two sites in central and southern England was stratified according to the presence or absence of weather fronts and then cross-tabulated with the prevailing Lamb Weather Type (LWT). A semi-Markov chain model was developed for simulating daily sequences of LWTs from matrices of transition probabilities between weather types for the British Isles 1970-1990. Daily and annual rainfall distributions were then simulated from the prevailing LWTs using historic conditional probabilities for precipitation occurrence and frontal frequencies. When compared with a conventional rainfall generator the frontal model produced improved estimates of the overall size distribution of daily rainfall amounts and in particular the incidence of low-frequency high-magnitude totals. Further research is required to establish the contribution of individual frontal sub-classes to daily rainfall totals and of long-term fluctuations in frontal frequencies to conditional probabilities.

Propagation of Satelite Rainfall Products uncertainties in hydrological applications : Examples in West-Africa in the framework of the Megha-Tropiques Satellite Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casse, C.; Gosset, M.; Peugeot, C.; Boone, A.; Pedinotti, V.

2013-12-01

The use of satellite based rainfall in research or operational Hydrological application is becoming more and more frequent. This is specially true in the Tropics where ground based gauge (or radar) network are generally scarce and often degrading. Member of the GPM constellation, the new French-Indian satellite Mission Megha-Tropiques (MT) dedicated to the water and energy budget in the tropical atmosphere contributes to a better monitoring of rainfall in the inter-tropical zone. As part of this mission, research is developed on the use of MT rainfall products for hydrological research or operational application such as flood monitoring. A key issue for such applications is how to account for rainfall products biases and uncertainties, and how to propagate them in the end user models ? Another important question is how to choose the best space-time resolution for the rainfall forcing, given that both model performances and rain-product uncertainties are resolution dependent. This talk will present on going investigations and perspectives on this subject, with examples from the Megha_tropiques Ground validation sites in West Africa. The CNRM model Surfex-ISBA/TRIP has been set up to simulate the hydrological behavior of the Niger River. This modeling set up is being used to study the predictability of Niger Floods events in the city of Niamey and the performances of satellite rainfall products as forcing for such predictions. One of the interesting feature of the Niger outflow in Niamey is its double peak : a first peak attributed to 'local' rainfall falling in small to medium size basins situated in the region of Niamey, and a second peak linked to the rainfall falling in the upper par of the river, and slowly propagating through the river towards Niamey. The performances of rainfall products are found to differ between the wetter/upper part of the basin, and the local/sahelian areas. Both academic tests with artificially biased or 'perturbed' rainfield and actual rainfall products are carried out. A simple method based on probability matching is applied to correct the RT products from their main biases. Several sensitivity studies have also been carried out in the Oueme Basin in Benin, West Africa, one of the instrumented basin used for MT products direct and hydrological validation. The tests highlight the fact that not only total biases but also the distribution of rain rates are key players for explaining the hydrological model sensitivity. (a) TMPAv7 total rainfall in 2010 in West Africa. Solid gray line delimits Niger river catchment, and dotted lines delimit Niger right bank tributary catchments. (b) Observed and simulated discharge at Niamey station. Preliminary results using the SURFEX hydrological model over Niger catchment and different satellite rainfall products as forcing.

Influence of land use on rainfall simulation results in the Souss basin, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Klaus Daniel; Ries, Johannes B.; Hssaine, Ali Ait

2013-04-01

Situated between the High and Anti-Atlas, the Souss basin is characterized by a dynamic land use change. It is one of the fastest growing agricultural regions of Morocco. Traditional mixed agriculture is replaced by extensive plantations of citrus fruits, bananas and vegetables in monocropping, mainly for the European market. For the implementation of the land use change and further expansion of the plantations into marginal land which was former unsuitable for agriculture, land levelling by heavy machinery is used to plane the fields and close the widespread gullies. These gully systems are cutting deep between the plantations and other arable land. Their development started already over 400 years ago with the introduction of sugar production. Heavy rainfall events lead to further strong soil and gully erosion in this with 200 mm mean annual precipitation normally arid region. Gullies are cutting into the arable land or are re-excavating their old stream courses. On the test sites around the city of Taroudant, a total of 122 rainfall simulations were conducted to analyze the susceptibility of soils to surface runoff and soil erosion under different land use. A small portable nozzle rainfall simulator is used for the rainfall simulation experiments, quantifying runoff and erosion rates on micro-plots with a size of 0.28 m2. A motor pump boosts the water regulated by a flow metre into the commercial full cone nozzle at a height of 2 m. The rainfall intensity is maintained at about 40 mm h-1 for each of the 30 min lasting experiments. Ten categories of land use are classified for different stages of levelling, fallow land, cultivation and rangeland. Results show that mean runoff coefficients and mean sediment loads are significantly higher (1.4 and 3.5 times respectively) on levelled study sites compared to undisturbed sites. However, the runoff coefficients of all land use types are relatively equal and reach high median coefficients from 39 to 56 %. Only the rainfall simulations underneath mandarin trees in a plantation show with 10 % low coefficients. The results are stronger differentiated for the sediment loads. On levelled areas, the simulations reach median sediment loads of 41 and 61 g m-2 respectively. In spite of high runoff coefficients, the lowest sediment loads of around 4.5 g m-2 are measured on old fallow land (>5 y.) and rangeland which are both protected by biological crusts. The same low result is found on the mandarin plantation. On other younger fallow land (1-2, 2-5 y.) as well as on stone covered badlands and sundry anthropogenic influenced soils medium soil losses between 18 and 25 g m-2 are reached. On sparsely vegetated grain fields, soil erosion is because of initiated crusting despite lower runoff coefficients with 30 g m-2 still high. Land-levelling measures have the greatest influence on rainfall simulation results. Although runoff coefficients on almost all land use types are similar, clear differences of soil erosion due to different land use can be identified.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

The Effect of Rainfall Measurement Technique and Its Spatiotemporal Resolution on Discharge Predictions in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Brauer, C.; Overeem, A.; Sassi, M.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

2014-12-01

Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of these spatiotemporal resolutions on discharge simulations in lowland catchments by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in a freely draining lowland catchment and a polder with controlled water levels. We used rain gauge networks with automatic (hourly resolution but low spatial density) and manual gauges (high spatial density but daily resolution). Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. We also investigated the effect of spatiotemporal resolution with a high-resolution X-band radar data set for catchments with different sizes. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. When catchments are divided into sub-catchments, rainfall spatial variability can become more important, especially during convective rainfall events, leading to spatially varying catchment wetness and spatially varying contribution of quick flow routes. Improving rainfall measurements and their spatiotemporal resolution can improve the performance of rainfall-runoff models, indicating their potential for reducing flood damage through real-time control.

Modulation of Heavy Rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa by Madden-Julian Oscillation Using High Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, L.; Stenchikov, G. L.; McCabe, M. F.; Bangalath, H. K.

2014-12-01

Recently, the modulation of subtropical rainfall by the dominant tropical intraseasonal signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), has been explored through the discussion of the MJO-convection-induced Kelvin and Rossby wave related teleconnection patterns. Our study focuses on characterizing the modulation of heavy rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by the MJO, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) simulations (25-km; 1979-2012) and a combination of available atmospheric products from satellite, in-situ and reanalysis data. The observed Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the simulated SST from GFDL's global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models (ESM2M) are employed in HIRAM to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated heavy rainfall and MJO to SST. The future trend of the extreme rainfalls and their links to the MJO response to climate change are examined using HIRAM simulations of 2012-2050 with the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios to advance the possibility of characterization and forecasting of future extreme rainfall events in the MENA region.

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa

2018-02-01

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.

The Impact of the Atlantic Cold Tongue on West African Monsoon Onset in Regional Model Simulations for 1998-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) develops during spring and early summer near the Equator in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea. The hypothesis that the ACT accelerates the timing of West African monsoon (WAM) onset is tested by comparing two regional climate model (RM3) simulation ensembles. Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) that include the ACT are used to force a control ensemble. An idealized, warm SST perturbation is designed to represent lower boundary forcing without the ACT for the experiment ensemble. Summer simulations forced by observed SST and reanalysis boundary conditions for each of five consecutive years are compared to five parallel runs forced by SST with the warm perturbation. The article summarizes the sequence of events leading to the onset of the WAM in the Sahel region. The representation of WAM onset in RM3 simulations is examined and compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and reanalysis data. The study evaluates the sensitivity of WAM onset indicators to the presence of the ACT by analysing the differences between the two simulation ensembles. Results show that the timing of major rainfall events and therefore theWAM onset in the Sahel are not sensitive to the presence of the ACT. However, the warm SST perturbation does increase downstream rainfall rates over West Africa as a consequence of enhanced specific humidity and enhanced northward moisture flux in the lower troposphere.

Annual Rainfall Forecasting by Using Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah-Ghalhary, G.-A.; Habibi Nokhandan, M.; Mousavi Baygi, M.

2009-04-01

Long-term rainfall prediction is very important to countries thriving on agro-based economy. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as "butterfly effect". The parameters that are required to predict the rainfall are enormous even for a short period. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. Unlike conventional artificial intelligence techniques the guiding principle of soft computing is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, robustness, partial truth to achieve tractability, and better rapport with reality. In this paper, 33 years of rainfall data analyzed in khorasan state, the northeastern part of Iran situated at latitude-longitude pairs (31°-38°N, 74°- 80°E). this research attempted to train Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) based prediction models with 33 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, the model predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that soft computing techniques are promising and efficient. The test results using by FIS model showed that the RMSE was obtained 52 millimeter.

Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

2011-12-01

In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C-band radar data is used. This analysis highlights the interest of implementing X-band radars in urban areas. Indeed such radars provide the rainfall data at a hectometric resolution that would enable a better nowcasting and management of storm water. The multifractal properties of the simulated hydrographs were analysed with the help of simulated rainfall fields of resolution 111 m x 111 m x 1 min, lasting 4 hours, and corresponding to a 5 year return period event. On the whole, the discharge exhibits a good scaling behaviour over the range 4 h - 5 min. Both UM parameters tend to be greater for the discharge than for the rainfall. The notion of maximum probable singularity was used to clarify the consequences on the assessment of extremes. It appears that the urban drainage network basically reproduces the extremes, or only slightly damps them, at least in terms of multifractal statistics. The results were obtained with the financial support from the EU FP7 SMARTesT Project and the Chair "Hydrology for Resilient Cities" (sponsored by Veolia) of Ecole des Ponts ParisTech.

Impact of Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Simulations Using WRF Model: Sensitivity of Assimilation Results to Background Error Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakesh, V.; Kantharao, B.

2017-03-01

Data assimilation is considered as one of the effective tools for improving forecast skill of mesoscale models. However, for optimum utilization and effective assimilation of observations, many factors need to be taken into account while designing data assimilation methodology. One of the critical components that determines the amount and propagation observation information into the analysis, is model background error statistics (BES). The objective of this study is to quantify how BES in data assimilation impacts on simulation of heavy rainfall events over a southern state in India, Karnataka. Simulations of 40 heavy rainfall events were carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting Model with and without data assimilation. The assimilation experiments were conducted using global and regional BES while the experiment with no assimilation was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of data assimilation. The simulated rainfall is verified against high-resolution rain-gage observations over Karnataka. Statistical evaluation using several accuracy and skill measures shows that data assimilation has improved the heavy rainfall simulation. Our results showed that the experiment using regional BES outperformed the one which used global BES. Critical thermo-dynamic variables conducive for heavy rainfall like convective available potential energy simulated using regional BES is more realistic compared to global BES. It is pointed out that these results have important practical implications in design of forecast platforms while decision-making during extreme weather events

Improving a spatial rainfall product using multiple-point geostatistical simulations and its effect on a national hydrological model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, F.; Stisen, S.

2016-12-01

Rainfall amount is one of the most sensitive inputs to distributed hydrological models. Its spatial representation is of primary importance to correctly study the uncertainty of basin recharge and its propagation to the surface and underground circulation. We consider here the 10-km-grid rainfall product provided by the Danish Meteorological Institute as input to the National Water Resources Model of Denmark. Due to a drastic reduction in the rain gauge network in recent years (from approximately 500 stations in the period 1996-2006, to 250 in the period 2007-2014), the grid rainfall product, based on the interpolation of these data, is much less reliable. Consequently, the related hydrological model shows a significantly lower prediction power. To give a better estimation of spatial rainfall at the grid points far from ground measurements, we use the direct sampling technique (DS) [1], belonging to the family of multiple-point geostatistics. DS, already applied to rainfall and spatial variable estimation [2, 3], simulates a grid value by sampling a training data set where a similar data neighborhood occurs. In this way, complex statistical relations are preserved by generating similar spatial patterns to the ones found in the training data set. Using the reliable grid product from the period 1996-2006 as training data set, we first test the technique by simulating part of this data set, then we apply the technique to the grid product of the period 2007-2014, and subsequently analyzing the uncertainty propagation to the hydrological model. We show that DS can improve the reliability of the rainfall product by generating more realistic rainfall patterns, with a significant repercussion on the hydrological model. The reduction of rain gauge networks is a global phenomenon which has huge implications for hydrological model performance and the uncertainty assessment of water resources. Therefore, the presented methodology can potentially be used in many regions where historical records can act as training data. [1] G.Mariethoz et al. (2010), Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2008WR007621.[2] F. Oriani et al. (2014), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 10.5194/hessd-11-3213-2014. [3] G. Mariethoz et al. (2012), Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2012WR012115.

The role of stochastic storms on hillslope runoff generation and connectivity in a dryland basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, K.; Singer, M. B.; Mudd, S. M.

2016-12-01

Despite low annual rainfall, dryland basins can generate significant surface runoff during certain rainstorms, which can cause flash flooding and high rates of erosion. However, it remains challenging to anticipate the nature and frequency of runoff generation in hydrological systems which are driven by spatially and temporally stochastic rainstorms. In particular, the stochasticity of rainfall presents challenges to simulating the hydrological response of dryland basins and understanding flow connectivity from hillslopes to the channel. Here we simulate hillslope runoff generation using rainfall characteristics produced by a simple stochastic rainfall generator, which is based on a rich rainfall dataset from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. We assess hillslope runoff generation using the hydrological model, COUP2D, driven by a subset of characteristic output from multiple ensembles of decadal monsoonal rainfall from the stochastic rainfall generator. The rainfall generator operates across WGEW by simulating storms with areas smaller than the basin and enables explicit characterization of rainfall characteristics at any location. We combine the characteristics of rainfall intensity and duration with data on rainstorm area and location to model the surface runoff properties (depth, velocity, duration, distance downslope) on a range of hillslopes within the basin derived from LiDAR analysis. We also analyze connectivity of flow from hillslopes to the channel for various combinations of hillslopes and storms. This approach provides a framework for understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff generation and connectivity that is faithful to the hydrological characteristics of dryland environments.

Paintability of two Hawaii-grown woods...first progress report

Treesearch

R. Sidney Boone

1966-01-01

In a test of simulated vertical house siding, robusta eucalyptus and Australian toon panels appear to hold paint as adequately as redwood and Douglas-fir panels after 1-year exposure. The addition of anti-mildew agents to paints seems advisable-particularly in higher rainfall areas. Of the four systems of paint being tested, the self-primed latex appears to be the best...

How important is the spatiotemporal structure of a rainfall field when generating a streamflow hydrograph? An investigation using Reverse Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretzschmar, Ann; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith; Chappell, Nick

2017-04-01

Flooding is the most widely occurring natural disaster affecting thousands of lives and businesses worldwide each year, and the size and frequency of flood-events are predicted to increase with climate change. The main input-variable for models used in flood prediction is rainfall. Estimating the rainfall input is often based on a sparse network of raingauges, which may or may not be representative of the salient rainfall characteristics responsible for generating of storm-hydrographs. A method based on Reverse Hydrology (Kretzschmar et al 2014 Environ Modell Softw) has been developed and is being tested using the intensively-instrumented Brue catchment (Southwest England) to explore the spatiotemporal structure of the rainfall-field (using 23 rain gauges over the 135.2 km2 basin). We compare how well the rainfall measured at individual gauges, or averaged over the basin, represent the rainfall inferred from the streamflow signal. How important is it to get the detail of the spatiotemporal rainfall structure right? Rainfall is transformed by catchment processes as it moves to streams, so exact duplication of the structure may not be necessary. 'True' rainfall estimated using 23 gauges / 135.2 km2 is likely to be a good estimate of the overall-catchment-rainfall, however, the integration process 'smears' the rainfall patterns in time, i.e. reduces the number of and lengthens rain-events as they travel across the catchment. This may have little impact on the simulation of stream-hydrographs when events are extensive across the catchment (e.g., frontal rainfall events) but may be significant for high-intensity, localised convective events. The Reverse Hydrology approach uses the streamflow record to infer a rainfall sequence with a lower time-resolution than the original input time-series. The inferred rainfall series is, however, able simulate streamflow as well as the observed, high resolution rainfall (Kretzschmar et al 2015 Hydrol Res). Most gauged catchments in the UK of a similar size would only have data available for 1 to 3 raingauges. The high density of the Brue raingauge network allows a good estimate of the 'True' catchment rainfall to be made and compared with data from an individual raingauge as if that was the only data available. In addition the rainfall from each raingauge is compared with rainfall inferred from streamflow using data from the selected individual raingauge, and also inferred from the full catchment network. The stochastic structure of the rainfall from all of these datasets is compared using a combination of traditional statistical measures, i.e., the first 4 moments of rainfall totals and its residuals; plus the number, length and distribution of wet and dry periods; rainfall intensity characteristics; and their ability to generate the observed stream hydrograph. Reverse Hydrology, which utilises information present in both the input rainfall and the output hydrograph, has provided a method of investigating the quality of the information each gauge adds to the catchment-average (Kretzschmar et al 2016 Procedia Eng.). Further, it has been used to ascertain how important reproducing the detailed rainfall structure really is, when used for flow prediction.

Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Variations and Linkage with Kharif Crop Production: An Attempt to Evaluate Predictability of Sub-Seasonal Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Ankita; Ghosh, Kripan; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-03-01

The sub-seasonal variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall highly impacts Kharif crop production in comparison with seasonal total rainfall. The rainfall frequency and intensity corresponding to various rainfall events are found to be highly related to crop production and therefore, the predictability of such events are considered to be diagnosed. Daily rainfall predictions are made available by one of the coupled dynamical model National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEPCFS). A large error in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence influences to take up a bias correction and for that reason, two approaches are used. The bias-corrected GCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability in rainfall events. Maximum prediction skill of frequency of less rainfall (LR) event is observed during the month of September and a similar result is also noticed for moderate rainfall event with maximum skill over the central parts of the country. On the other hand, the impact of rainfall weekly rainfall intensity is evaluated against the Kharif rice production. It is found that weekly rainfall intensity during July is having a significant impact on Kharif rice production, but the corresponding skill was found very low in GCM. The GCM are able to simulate the less and moderate rainfall frequency with significant skill.

Calibration of a distributed routing rainfall-runoff model at four urban sites near Miami, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, W. Harry; Miller, Jeffrey E.

1980-01-01

Urban stormwater data from four Miami, Fla. catchments were collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey and were used for testing the applicability of deterministic modeling for characterizing stormwater flows from small land-use areas. A description of model calibration and verification is presented for: (1) A 40.8 acre single-family residential area, (2) a 58.3-acre highway area, (3) a 20.4-acre commercial area, and (4) a 14.7-acre multifamily residential area. Rainfall-runoff data for 80, 108, 114, and 52 storms at sites, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, were collected, analyzed, and stored on direct-access files. Rainfall and runoff data for these storms (at 1-minute time intervals) were used in flow-modeling simulation analyses. A distributed routing Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was used to determine rainfall excess and route overland and channel flows at each site. Optimization of soil-moisture- accounting and infiltration parameters was performed during the calibration phases. The results of this study showed that, with qualifications, an acceptable verification of the Geological Survey model can be achieved. (Kosco-USGS)

STEP-TRAMM - A modeling interface for simulating localized rainfall induced shallow landslides and debris flow runout pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ruette, Jonas; Lehmann, Peter; Fan, Linfeng; Bickel, Samuel; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

Landslides and subsequent debris-flows initiated by rainfall represent a ubiquitous natural hazard in steep mountainous regions. We integrated a landslide hydro-mechanical triggering model and associated debris flow runout pathways with a graphical user interface (GUI) to represent these natural hazards in a wide range of catchments over the globe. The STEP-TRAMM GUI provides process-based locations and sizes of landslides patterns using digital elevation models (DEM) from SRTM database (30 m resolution) linked with soil maps from global database SoilGrids (250 m resolution) and satellite based information on rainfall statistics for the selected region. In a preprocessing step STEP-TRAMM models soil depth distribution and complements soil information that jointly capture key hydrological and mechanical properties relevant to local soil failure representation. In the presentation we will discuss feature of this publicly available platform and compare landslide and debris flow patterns for different regions considering representative intense rainfall events. Model outcomes will be compared for different spatial and temporal resolutions to test applicability of web-based information on elevation and rainfall for hazard assessment.

Fate and transport of antimicrobials and antimicrobial resistance genes in soil and runoff following land application of swine manure slurry.

PubMed

Joy, Stacey R; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon L; Snow, Daniel D; Gilley, John E; Woodbury, Bryan L; Parker, David B; Marx, David B; Li, Xu

2013-01-01

Due to the use of antimicrobials in livestock production, residual antimicrobials and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) could enter the environment following the land application of animal wastes and could further contaminate surface and groundwater. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of various manure land application methods on the fate and transport of antimicrobials and ARGs in soil and runoff following land application of swine manure slurry. Swine manure slurries were obtained from facilities housing pigs that were fed chlortetracyline, tylosin or bacitracin and were land applied via broadcast, incorporation, and injection methods. Three rainfall simulation tests were then performed on amended and control plots. Results show that land application methods had no statistically significant effect on the aqueous concentrations of antimicrobials in runoff. However, among the three application methods tested broadcast resulted in the highest total mass loading of antimicrobials in runoff from the three rainfall simulation tests. The aqueous concentrations of chlortetracyline and tylosin in runoff decreased in consecutive rainfall events, although the trend was only statistically significant for tylosin. For ARGs, broadcast resulted in significantly higher erm genes in runoff than did incorporation and injection methods. In soil, the effects of land application methods on the fate of antimicrobials in top soil were compound specific. No clear trend was observed in the ARG levels in soil, likely because different host cells may respond differently to the soil environments created by various land application methods.

Rainfall simulation experiments in the southwestern USA using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakov, Viktor; Stone, Jeffry; Holifield Collins, Chandra; Nearing, Mark A.; Paige, Ginger; Buono, Jared; Gomez-Pond, Rae-Landa

2018-01-01

This dataset contains hydrological, erosion, vegetation, ground cover, and other supplementary information from 272 rainfall simulation experiments conducted on 23 semiarid rangeland locations in Arizona and Nevada between 2002 and 2013. On 30 % of the plots, simulations were conducted up to five times during the decade of study. The rainfall was generated using the Walnut Gulch Rainfall Simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots. Simulation sites included brush and grassland areas with various degrees of disturbance by grazing, wildfire, or brush removal. This dataset advances our understanding of basic hydrological and biological processes that drive soil erosion on arid rangelands. It can be used to estimate runoff, infiltration, and erosion rates at a variety of ecological sites in the Southwestern USA. The inclusion of wildfire and brush treatment locations combined with long-term observations makes it important for studying vegetation recovery, ecological transitions, and the effect of management. It is also a valuable resource for erosion model parameterization and validation. The dataset is available from the National Agricultural Library at https://data.nal.usda.gov/search/type/dataset (DOI: https://doi.org/10.15482/USDA.ADC/1358583).

Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

2010-05-01

The seasonality and characteristics of rainfall in the UK are altering under a changing climate. Summer rainfall is generally decreasing whereas winter rainfall is increasing, particularly in northern and western areas (Maraun et al., 2008) and recent research suggests these rainfall increases are amplified in upland areas (Burt and Ferranti, 2010). Conditional analysis has been used to investigate these rainfall patterns in Cumbria, an upland area in northwest England. Cumbria was selected as an example of a topographically diverse mid-latitude region that has a predominately maritime and westerly-defined climate. Moreover it has a dense network of more than 400 rain gauges that have operated for periods between 1900 and present day. Cumbria has experienced unprecedented flooding in the past decade and understanding the spatial and temporal changes in this and other upland regions is important for water resource and ecosystem management. The conditional analysis method examines the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall under different synoptic conditions and in different geographic sub-regions (Ferranti et al., 2009). A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to classify rainfall into different weather types, for example: south-westerly, westerly, easterly or cyclonic. Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into 6 directionally-dependant geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Combining these classification methods enabled seasonal rainfall climatologies to be produced for specific weather types and sub-regions. Winter rainfall climatologies were constructed for all 6 sub-regions for 3 weather types - south-westerly (SW), westerly (W), and cyclonic (C); these weather types contribute more than 50% of total winter rainfall. The frequency of wet-days (>0.3mm), the total winter rainfall and the average wet day rainfall amount were analysed for each rainfall sub-region and weather type from 1961-2007 (Ferranti et al., 2010). The conditional analysis showed total rainfall under SW and W weather types to be increasing, with the greatest increases observed in the upland sub-regions. The increase in total SW rainfall is driven by a greater occurrence of SW rain days, and there has been little change to the average wet-day rainfall amount. The increase in total W rainfall is driven in part by an increase in the frequency of wet-days, but more significantly by an increase in the average wet-day rainfall amount. In contrast, total rainfall under C weather types has decreased. Further analysis will investigate how spring, summer and autumn rainfall climatologies have changed for the different weather types and sub-regions. Conditional analysis that combines GIS and synoptic climatology provides greater insights into the processes underlying readily available meteorological data. Dissecting Cumbrian rainfall data under different synoptic and geographic conditions showed the observed changes in winter rainfall are not uniform for the different weather types, nor for the different geographic sub-regions. These intricate details are often lost during coarser resolution analysis, and conditional analysis will provide a detailed synopsis of Cumbrian rainfall processes against which Regional Climate Model (RCM) performance can be tested. Conventionally RCMs try to simulate composite rainfall over many different weather types and sub-regions and by undertaking conditional validation the model performance for individual processes can be tested. This will help to target improvements in model performance, and ultimately lead to better simulation of rainfall in areas of complex topography. BURT, T. P. & FERRANTI, E. J. S. (2010) Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England. Atmospheric Environment, [in review]. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R. J. (2009) Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 177-184. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D., TIMMIS, R. J. & DAVIES, G. (2010) Using GIS to investigate spatial and temporal variations in upland rainfall. Transactions in GIS, [in press]. MARAUN, D., OSBORN, T. J. & GILLETT, N. P. (2008) United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 833-842.

Comparing a simple methodology to evaluate hydrodynamic parameters with rainfall simulation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Prima, Simone; Bagarello, Vincenzo; Bautista, Inmaculada; Burguet, Maria; Cerdà, Artemi; Iovino, Massimo; Prosdocimi, Massimo

2016-04-01

Studying soil hydraulic properties is necessary for interpreting and simulating many hydrological processes having environmental and economic importance, such as rainfall partition into infiltration and runoff. The saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, exerts a dominating influence on the partitioning of rainfall in vertical and lateral flow paths. Therefore, estimates of Ks are essential for describing and modeling hydrological processes (Zimmermann et al., 2013). According to several investigations, Ks data collected by ponded infiltration tests could be expected to be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes, and particularly infiltration. In fact, infiltration measured by ponding give us information about the soil maximum or potential infiltration rate (Cerdà, 1996). Moreover, especially for the hydrodynamic parameters, many replicated measurements have to be carried out to characterize an area of interest since they are known to vary widely both in space and time (Logsdon and Jaynes, 1996; Prieksat et al., 1994). Therefore, the technique to be applied at the near point scale should be simple and rapid. Bagarello et al. (2014) and Alagna et al. (2015) suggested that the Ks values determined by an infiltration experiment carried applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could be more appropriate than those obtained with a low height of water pouring to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. These authors used the Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer parameters (BEST) procedure for complete soil hydraulic characterization (Lassabatère et al., 2006) to analyze the field infiltration experiment. This methodology, combining low and high height of water pouring, seems appropriate to test the effect of intense and prolonged rainfall events on the hydraulic characteristics of the surface soil layer. In fact, an intense and prolonged rainfall event has a perturbing effect on the soil surface and, reasonably, it can better be represented by the high runs than the low runs (Alagna et al., 2015). Obviously, this methodology is also simpler than an approach involving soil characterization both before and after natural or simulated rainfall since it needs less equipment and field work. On the other hand, rainfall simulation experiments are more realistic and accurate, but also more sophisticated and costly (Cerdà, 1997). Rainfall simulation is often used to measure the infiltration process (e.g., Bhardwaj and Singh, 1992; Cerdà, 1999, 1997, 1996; Cerdà and Doerr, 2007; Iserloh et al., 2013; Liu et al., 2011; Tricker, 1979), and it has become an important method for assessing the subjects of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes (Iserloh et al., 2013). Its application allows a quick, specific and reproducible assessment of the meaning and impact of several factors, such as slope, soil type (infiltration, permeability), soil moisture, splash effect of raindrops (aggregate stability), surface structure, vegetation cover and vegetation structure (Bowyer-Bower and Burt, 1989). The objectives of this investigation are: (i) to compare infiltration rates measured by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface with those obtained by rainfall simulation experiments and (ii) to verify if the Ks values determined with the BEST procedure are in line with the occurrence of runoff measured with a more robust methodology. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603498 (RECARE project). References Alagna, V., Bagarello, V., Di Prima, S., Giordano, G., Iovino, M., 2015. Testing infiltration run effects on the estimated hydrodynamic parameters of a sandy-loam soil. Submitted to Geoderma. Bagarello, V., Castellini, M., Di Prima, S., Iovino, M., 2014. Soil hydraulic properties determined by infiltration experiments and different heights of water pouring. Geoderma 213, 492-501. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2013.08.032 Bhardwaj, A., Singh, R., 1992. Development of a portable rainfall simulator infiltrometer for infiltration, runoff and erosion studies. Agricultural Water Management 22, 235-248. doi:10.1016/0378-3774(92)90028-U Bouwer, H., 1966. Rapid field measurement of air entry value and hydraulic conductivity of soil as significant parameters in flow system analysis. Water Resour. Res. 2, 729-738. doi:10.1029/WR002i004p00729 Bowyer-Bower, T.A.S., Burt, T.P., 1989. Rainfall simulators for investigating soil response to rainfall. Soil Technology 2, 1-16. doi:10.1016/S0933-3630(89)80002-9 Cerdà, A., 1999. Simuladores de lluvia y su aplicación a la Geomorfologia: estado de la cuestión. Cuadernos de investigación geográfica 45-84. Cerdà, A., 1997. Seasonal changes of the infiltration rates in a Mediterranean scrubland on limestone. Journal of Hydrology 198, 209-225. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03295-7 Cerdà, A., 1996. Seasonal variability of infiltration rates under contrasting slope conditions in southeast Spain. Geoderma 69, 217-232. doi:10.1016/0016-7061(95)00062-3 Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H., 2007. Soil wettability, runoff and erodibility of major dry-Mediterranean land use types on calcareous soils. Hydrol. Process. 21, 2325-2336. doi:10.1002/hyp.6755 Iserloh, T., Ries, J.B., Arnáez, J., Boix-Fayos, C., Butzen, V., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fernández-Gálvez, J., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Gómez, J.A., Gómez-Macpherson, H., Kuhn, N.J., Lázaro, R., León, F.J., Martínez-Mena, M., Martínez-Murillo, J.F., Marzen, M., Mingorance, M.D., Ortigosa, L., Peters, P., Regüés, D., Ruiz-Sinoga, J.D., Scholten, T., Seeger, M., Solé-Benet, A., Wengel, R., Wirtz, S., 2013. European small portable rainfall simulators: A comparison of rainfall characteristics. CATENA 110, 100-112. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2013.05.013 Lassabatère, L., Angulo-Jaramillo, R., Soria Ugalde, J.M., Cuenca, R., Braud, I., Haverkamp, R., 2006. Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer Parameters through Infiltration Experiments - BEST. Soil Science Society of America Journal 70, 521. doi:10.2136/sssaj2005.0026 Liu, H., Lei, T.W., Zhao, J., Yuan, C.P., Fan, Y.T., Qu, L.Q., 2011. Effects of rainfall intensity and antecedent soil water content on soil infiltrability under rainfall conditions using the run off-on-out method. Journal of Hydrology 396, 24-32. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.10.028 Logsdon, S.D., Jaynes, D.B., 1996. Spatial Variability of Hydraulic Conductivity in a Cultivated Field at Different Times. Soil Science Society of America Journal 60, 703. doi:10.2136/sssaj1996.03615995006000030003x Prieksat, M.A., Kaspar, T.C., Ankeny, M.D., 1994. Positional and Temporal Changes in Ponded Infiltration in a Corn Field. Soil Science Society of America Journal 58, 181. doi:10.2136/sssaj1994.03615995005800010026x Tricker, A.S., 1979. The design of a portable rainfall simulator infiltrometer. Journal of Hydrology 41, 143-147. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(79)90111-2 van De Giesen, N.C., Stomph, T.J., de Ridder, N., 2000. Scale effects of Hortonian overland flow and rainfall-runoff dynamics in a West African catena landscape. Hydrol. Process. 14, 165-175. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(200001)14:1<165::AID-HYP920>3.0.CO;2-1 Zimmermann, A., Schinn, D.S., Francke, T., Elsenbeer, H., Zimmermann, B., 2013. Uncovering patterns of near-surface saturated hydraulic conductivity in an overland flow-controlled landscape. Geoderma 195-196, 1-11. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2012.11.002

Mini rainfall simulation for assessing soil erodibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Piet; Palese, Dina; Baartman, Jantiene

2016-04-01

The mini rainfall simulator is a small portable rainfall simulator to determine erosion and water infiltration characteristics of soils. The advantages of the mini rainfall simulator are that it is suitable for soil conservation surveys and light and easy to handle in the field. Practical experience over the last decade has shown that the used 'standard' shower is a reliable method to assess differences in erodibility due to soil type and/or land use. The mini rainfall simulator was used recently in a study on soil erosion in olive groves (Ferrandina-Italy). The propensity to erosion of a steep rain-fed olive grove (mean slope ~10%) with a sandy loam soil was evaluated by measuring runoff and sediment load under extreme rain events. Two types of soil management were compared: spontaneous grass as a ground cover (GC) and tillage (1 day (T1) and 10 days after tillage (T2)). Results indicate that groundcover reduced surface runoff to approximately one-third and soil-losses to zero compared with T1. The runoff between the two tilled plots was similar, although runoff on T1 plots increased steadily over time whereas runoff on T2 plots remained stable.

Mathematical model of sediment and solute transport along slope land in different rainfall pattern conditions

PubMed Central

Tao, Wanghai; Wu, Junhu; Wang, Quanjiu

2017-01-01

Rainfall erosion is a major cause of inducing soil degradation, and rainfall patterns have a significant influence on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss. The mathematical models developed in this study were used to simulate the sediment and nutrient loss in surface runoff. Four rainfall patterns, each with a different rainfall intensity variation, were applied during the simulated rainfall experiments. These patterns were designated as: uniform-type, increasing-type, increasing- decreasing -type and decreasing-type. The results revealed that changes in the rainfall intensity can have an appreciable impact on the process of runoff generation, but only a slight effect on the total amount of runoff generated. Variations in the rainfall intensity in a rainfall event not only had a significant effect on the process of sediment yield and nutrient loss, but also the total amount of sediment and nutrient produced, and early high rainfall intensity may lead to the most severe erosion and nutrient loss. In this study, the calculated data concur with the measured values. The model can be used to predict the process of surface runoff, sediment transport and nutrient loss associated with different rainfall patterns. PMID:28272431

Analysis of convection-permitting simulations for capturing heavy rainfall events over Myanmar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acierto, R. A. E.; Kawasaki, A.

2017-12-01

Perennial flooding due to heavy rainfall events causes strong impacts on the society and economy. With increasing pressures of rapid development and potential for climate change impacts, Myanmar experiences a rapid increase in disaster risk. Heavy rainfall hazard assessment is key on quantifying such disaster risk in both current and future conditions. Downscaling using Regional Climate Models (RCM) such as Weather Research and Forecast model have been used extensively for assessing such heavy rainfall events. However, usage of convective parameterizations can introduce large errors in simulating rainfall. Convective-permitting simulations have been used to deal with this problem by increasing the resolution of RCMs to 4km. This study focuses on the heavy rainfall events during the six-year (2010-2015) wet period season from May to September in Myanmar. The investigation primarily utilizes rain gauge observation for comparing downscaled heavy rainfall events in 4km resolution using ERA-Interim as boundary conditions using 12km-4km one-way nesting method. The study aims to provide basis for production of high-resolution climate projections over Myanmar in order to contribute for flood hazard and risk assessment.

Rainfall simulation in greenhouse microcosms to assess bacterial-associated runoff from land-applied poultry litter.

PubMed

Brooks, John P; Adeli, Ardeshir; Read, John J; McLaughlin, Michael R

2009-01-01

Runoff water following a rain event is one possible source of environmental contamination after a manure application. This greenhouse study used a rainfall simulator to determine bacterial-associated runoff from troughs of common bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] that were treated with P-based, N-based, and N plus lime rates of poultry (Gallus gallus) litter, recommended inorganic fertilizer, and control. Total heterotrophic plate count (HPC) bacteria, total and thermotolerant coliforms, enterococci, staphylococci, Clostridium perfringens, Salmonella, and Campylobacter, as well as antibiotic resistance profiles for the staphylococci and enterococci isolates were all monitored in runoff waters. Analysis following five rainfall events indicated that staphylococci, enterococci, and clostridia levels were related to manure application rate. Runoff release of staphylococci, enterococci, and C. perfringens were approximately 3 to 6 log10 greater in litter vs. control treatment. In addition, traditional indicators such as thermotolerant and total coliforms performed poorly as fecal indicators. Some isolated enterococci demonstrated increased antibiotic resistance to polymixin b and/or select aminoglyocosides, while many staphylococci were susceptible to most antimicrobials tested. Results indicated poultry litter application can lead to microbial runoff following simulated rain events. Future studies should focus on the use of staphylococci, enterococci, and C. perfringens as indicators.

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania

PubMed Central

Tumbo, S. D.; Kihupi, N. I.; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly. PMID:28536708

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

PubMed

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

A mathematical model for soil solute transfer into surface runoff as influenced by rainfall detachment.

PubMed

Yang, Ting; Wang, Quanjiu; Wu, Laosheng; Zhao, Guangxu; Liu, Yanli; Zhang, Pengyu

2016-07-01

Nutrients transport is a main source of water pollution. Several models describing transport of soil nutrients such as potassium, phosphate and nitrate in runoff water have been developed. The objectives of this research were to describe the nutrients transport processes by considering the effect of rainfall detachment, and to evaluate the factors that have greatest influence on nutrients transport into runoff. In this study, an existing mass-conservation equation and rainfall detachment process were combined and augmented to predict runoff of nutrients in surface water in a Loess Plateau soil in Northwestern Yangling, China. The mixing depth is a function of time as a result of rainfall impact, not a constant as described in previous models. The new model was tested using two different sub-models of complete-mixing and incomplete-mixing. The complete-mixing model is more popular to use for its simplicity. It captured the runoff trends of those high adsorption nutrients, and of nutrients transport along steep slopes. While the incomplete-mixing model predicted well for the highest observed concentrations of the test nutrients. Parameters inversely estimated by the models were applied to simulate nutrients transport, results suggested that both models can be adopted to describe nutrients transport in runoff under the impact of rainfall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating Streamflow and Dissolved Organic Matter Export from small Forested Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, N.; Wilson, H.; Saiers, J. E.

2010-12-01

Coupling the rainfall-runoff process and solute transport in catchment models is important for understanding the dynamics of water-quality-relevant constituents in a watershed. To simulate the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in a parametrically parsimonious way remains challenging. The purpose of this study is to quantify the export of water and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from a forested catchment by developing and testing a coupled model for rainfall-runoff and soil-water flushing of DOM. Natural DOM plays an important role in terrestrial and aquatic systems by affecting nutrient cycling, contaminant mobility and toxicity, and drinking water quality. Stream-water discharge and DOM concentrations were measured in a first-order stream in Harvard Forest, Massachusetts. These measurements show that stream water DOM concentrations are greatest during hydrologic events induced by rainfall or snowmelt and decline to low, steady levels during periods of baseflow. Comparison of the stream-discharge data to calculations of a simple rainfall-runoff model reveals a hysteretic relationship between stream-flow rates and the storage of water within the catchment. A modified version of the rainfall-runoff model that accounts for hysteresis in the storage-discharge relationship in a parametrically simple way is capable of describing much, but not all, of the variation in the time-series data on stream discharge. Our ongoing research is aimed at linking the new rainfall-runoff formulation with coupled equations that predict soil-flushing and stream-water concentrations of DOM as functions of the temporal change in catchment water storage. This model will provide a predictive tool for examining how changes in climatic variables would affect the runoff generation and DOM fluxes from terrestrial landscape.

Ability of WRF to Simulate Rainfall Distribution Over West Africa: Role of Horizontal Resolution and Dynamical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouadio, K.; Konare, A.; Bastin, S.; Ajayi, V. O.

2016-12-01

This research work focused on the thorny problem of the representation of rainfall over West Africa and particularly in the Gulf of Guinea and its surroundings by Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The sensitivities of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are tested for changes in horizontal resolution (convective permitting versus parameterized) on the replication of West African Climate in year 2014 and also changes in microphysics (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes on June 2014. The sensitivity to horizontal resolution study show that both runs at 24km and 4km (explicit convection) resolution fairly replicate the general distribution of the rainfall over West African region. The analysis also reveals a good replication of the dynamical features of West African monsoon system including Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), African Easterly Jet (AEJ), monsoon flow and the West African Heat Low (WAHL). Some differences have been noticed between WRF and ERA-interim outputs irrespective to the spectral nudging used in the experiment which then suggest strong interactions between scales. The link between the seasonal displacement of the WAHL and the spatial distribution of the rainfall and the Sahelian onset is confirmed in this study. The results also show an improvement on the replication of rainfall with the very high resolution run observed at daily scale over the Sahel while a dry bias is observed in WRF simulations of the rainfall over Ivorian Coast and in the Gulf of Guinea. Generally, over the Guinean coast the high resolution run did not provide subsequent improvement on the replication of rainfall. The sensitivity of WRF to MP and PBL on rainfall replication study reveals that the most significant added value over the Guinean coast and surroundings area is provided by the configurations that used the PBL Asymmetric Convective Model V2 (ACM2) suggesting more influence of the PBL compared to MP. The change on microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes in general, seems to have less effect on the explicit runs into the replication of the rainfall over the Gulf of Guinea and the surroundings seaboard.

High Severity Wildfire Effect On Rainfall Infiltration And Runoff: A Cellular Automata Based Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara-Blanco, J. E.; Leboeuf-Pasquier, J.; Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D.

2017-12-01

A simulation software that reproduces rainfall infiltration and runoff for a storm event in a particular forest area is presented. A cellular automaton is utilized to represent space and time. On the time scale, the simulation is composed by a sequence of discrete time steps. On the space scale, the simulation is composed of forest surface cells. The software takes into consideration rain intensity and length, individual forest cell soil absorption capacity evolution, and surface angle of inclination. The software is developed with the C++ programming language. The simulation is executed on a 100 ha area within La Primavera Forest in Jalisco, Mexico. Real soil texture for unburned terrain and high severity wildfire affected terrain is employed to recreate the specific infiltration profile. Historical rainfall data of a 92 minute event is used. The Horton infiltration equation is utilized for infiltration capacity calculation. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is employed to reproduce the surface topography. The DEM is displayed with a 3D mesh graph where individual surface cells can be observed. The plot colouring renders water content development at the cell level throughout the storm event. The simulation shows that the cumulative infiltration and runoff which take place at the surface cell level depend on the specific storm intensity, fluctuation and length, overall terrain topography, cell slope, and soil texture. Rainfall cumulative infiltration for unburned and high severity wildfire terrain are compared: unburned terrain exhibits a significantly higher amount of rainfall infiltration.It is concluded that a cellular automaton can be utilized with a C++ program to reproduce rainfall infiltration and runoff under diverse soil texture, topographic and rainfall conditions in a forest setting. This simulation is geared for an optimization program to pinpoint the locations of a series of forest land remediation efforts to support reforestation or to minimize runoff.

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part 1; The Organization of Vertical Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Hurricanes are well known for their strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly in the intense rainband (eyewall) surrounding the calmer eye of the storm. In some hurricanes, the rainfall is distributed evenly around the eye so that it has a donut shape on radar images. In other cases, the rainfall is concentrated on one side of the eyewall and nearly absent on the other side and is said to be asymmetric. This study examines how the vertical air motions that produce the rainfall are distributed within the eyewall of an asymmetric hurricane and the factors that cause this pattern of rainfall. We use a sophisticated numerical forecast model to simulate Hurricane Bonnie, which occurred in late August of 1998 during a special NASA field experiment designed to study hurricanes. The simulation results suggest that vertical wind shear (a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height) caused the asymmetric rainfall and vertical air motion patterns by tilting the hurricane vortex and favoring upward air motions in the direction of tilt. Although the rainfall in the hurricane eyewall may surround more than half of the eye, the updrafts that produce the rainfall are concentrated in very small-scale, intense updraft cores that occupy only about 10% of the eyewall area. The model simulation suggests that the timing and location of individual updraft cores are controlled by intense, small-scale vortices (regions of rapidly swirling flow) in the eyewall and that the updrafts form when the vortices encounter low-level air moving into the eyewall.

Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2010-05-01

Rainfall in southeastern Australia has declined in recent years, particularly during austral autumn over the state of Victoria. A recent study suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) variations in both the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region and in a meridional dipole in the central Indian Ocean have influenced Victorian late autumn rainfall since 1950. However, it remains unclear to what extent SSTs in these and other regions force such a teleconnection. Analysis of a 1080 year simulation by the climate model CSIRO Mk3.5 shows that the model Victorian rainfall is correlated rather realistically with SSTs but that part of the above relationships is due to the model ENSO. Furthermore, the remote patterns of pressure, rainfall, and land temperature greatly diminish when the data are lagged by 1 month, suggesting that the true forcing by the persisting SSTs is weak. In a series of simulations of the atmospheric Mk3.5 with idealized SST anomalies, raised SSTs to the east of Indonesia lower the simulated Australian rainfall, while those to the west raise it. A positive ITF anomaly lowers pressure over Australia, but with little effect on Victorian rainfall. The meridional dipole and SSTs to the west and southeast of Australia have little direct effect on southeastern Australia in the model. The results suggest that tropical SSTs predominate as an influence on Victorian rainfall. However, the SST indices appear to explain only a fraction of the observed trend, which in the case of decadal means remains within the range of unforced variability simulated by Mk3.5.

Use of High-Resolution Satellite Observations to Evaluate Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.

2007-12-01

The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.

Cascade rainfall disaggregation application in U.S. Central Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hourly rainfall are increasingly used in complex, process-based simulations of the environment. Long records of daily rainfall are common, but long continuous records of hourly rainfall are rare and must be developed. A Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model is proposed to disaggregate observed d...

Spatial and temporal variability in the R-5 infiltration data set: Déjà vu and rainfall-runoff simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loague, Keith; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.

1997-12-01

This paper is a continuation of the event-based rainfall-runoff model evaluation study reported by Loague and Freeze [1985[. Here we reevaluate the performance of a quasi-physically based rainfall-runoff model for three large events from the well-known R-5 catchment. Five different statistical criteria are used to quantitatively judge model performance. Temporal variability in the large R-5 infiltration data set [Loague and Gander, 1990] is filtered by working in terms of permeability. The transformed data set is reanalyzed via geostatistical methods to model the spatial distribution of permeability across the R-5 catchment. We present new estimates of the spatial distribution of infiltration that are in turn used in our rainfall-runoff simulations with the Horton rainfall-runoff model. The new rainfall-runoff simulations, complicated by reinfiltration impacts at the smaller scales of characterization, indicate that the near-surface hydrologic response of the R-5 catchment is most probably dominated by a combination of the Horton and Dunne overland flow mechanisms.

A simplified rainfall-runoff stochastic simulation method for an application of the SCHADEX method to ungauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

2014-05-01

SCHADEX is a probabilistic method for extreme flood estimation, developed and applied since 2006 at Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design [Paquet et al., 2013]. SCHADEX is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process. The method has been built around two models: a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern (MEWP) distribution for rainfall probability estimation [Garavaglia et al., 2010] and the MORDOR hydrological model. To use SCHADEX in ungauged context, rainfall distribution and hydrological model must be regionalized. The regionalization of the MEWP rainfall distribution can be managed with SPAZM, a daily rainfall interpolator [Gottardi et al., 2012] which provides reasonable estimates of point and areal rainfall up to hight quantiles. The main issue remains to regionalize MORDOR which is heavily parametrized. A much more simple model has been considered: the SCS model. It is a well known model for event simulation [USDA SCS, 1985; Beven, 2003] and it relies on only one parameter. Then, the idea is to use the SCS model instead of MORDOR within a simplified stochastic simulation scheme to produce a distribution of flood volume from an exhaustive crossing between rainy events and catchment saturation hazards. The presentation details this process and its capacity to generate a runoff distribution based on catchment areal rainfall distribution. The simulation method depends on a unique parameter Smax, the maximum initial loss of the catchment. Then an initial loss S (between zero and Smax) can be drawn to account for the variability of catchment state (between dry and saturated). The distribution of initial loss (or conversely, of catchment saturation, as modeled by MORDOR) seems closely linked to the catchment's regime, therefore easily to regionalize. The simulation takes into account a snow contribution for snow driven catchments, and an antecedent runoff. The presentation shows the results of this stochastic procedure applied on 80 French catchments and its capacity to represent the asymptotic behaviour of the runoff distribution. References: K. J. Beven. Rainfall-Runoff modelling The Primer, British Library, 2003. F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14(6):951-964, 2010. F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet. Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154-167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, R Garçon, and J. Gailhard. The schadex method : a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 2013. USDA SCS, National Engineering Handbook, Supplement A, Section 4, Chapter 10. Whashington DC, 1985.

Hydro-mechanical mechanism and thresholds of rainfall-induced unsaturated landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zongji; Lei, Xiaoqin; Huang, Dong; Qiao, Jianping

2017-04-01

The devastating Ms 8 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 created the greatest number of co-seismic mountain hazards ever recorded in China. However, the dynamics of rainfall induced mass remobilization and transport deposits after giant earthquake are not fully understood. Moreover, rainfall intensity and duration (I-D) methods are the predominant early warning indicators of rainfall-induced landslides in post-earthquake region, which are a convenient and straight-forward way to predict the hazards. However, the rainfall-based criteria and thresholds are generally empirical and based on statistical analysis,consequently, they ignore the failure mechanisms of the landslides. This study examines the mechanism and hydro-mechanical behavior and thresholds of these unsaturated deposits under the influence of rainfall. To accomplish this, in situ experiments were performed in an instrumented landslide deposit, The field experimental tests were conducted on a natural co-seismic fractured slope to 1) simulate rainfall-induced shallow failures in the depression channels of a debris flow catchment in an earthquake-affected region, 2)explore the mechanisms and transient processes associated with hydro-mechanical parameter variations in response to the infiltration of rainfall, and 3) identify the hydrologic parameter thresholds and critical criteria of gravitational erosion in areas prone to mass remobilization as a source of debris flows. These experiments provided instrumental evidence and directly proved that post-earthquake rainfall-induced mass remobilization occurred under unsaturated conditions in response to transient rainfall infiltration, and revealed the presence of transient processes and the dominance of preferential flow paths during rainfall infiltration. A hydro-mechanical method was adopted for the transient hydrologic process modelling and unsaturated slope stability analysis. and the slope failures during the experimental test were reproduced by the model, indicating that the decrease in matrix suction and increase in moisture content in response to rainfall infiltration contributed greatly to post-earthquake shallow mass movement. Thus, a threshold model for the initiation of mass remobilization is proposed based on correlations between slope stability and volumetric water content and matrix suction As a complement to rainfall-based early warning strategies, the water content and suction threshold models based on the water infiltration induced slope failure mechanism. the proposed method are expected to improve the accuracy of prediction and early warnings of post-earthquake mountain hazards

Sampling errors for satellite-derived tropical rainfall - Monte Carlo study using a space-time stochastic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Abdullah, A.; Martin, Russell L.; North, Gerald R.

1990-01-01

Estimates of monthly average rainfall based on satellite observations from a low earth orbit will differ from the true monthly average because the satellite observes a given area only intermittently. This sampling error inherent in satellite monitoring of rainfall would occur even if the satellite instruments could measure rainfall perfectly. The size of this error is estimated for a satellite system being studied at NASA, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). First, the statistical description of rainfall on scales from 1 to 1000 km is examined in detail, based on rainfall data from the Global Atmospheric Research Project Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). A TRMM-like satellite is flown over a two-dimensional time-evolving simulation of rainfall using a stochastic model with statistics tuned to agree with GATE statistics. The distribution of sampling errors found from many months of simulated observations is found to be nearly normal, even though the distribution of area-averaged rainfall is far from normal. For a range of orbits likely to be employed in TRMM, sampling error is found to be less than 10 percent of the mean for rainfall averaged over a 500 x 500 sq km area.

A protocol for conducting rainfall simulation to study soil runoff.

PubMed

Kibet, Leonard C; Saporito, Louis S; Allen, Arthur L; May, Eric B; Kleinman, Peter J A; Hashem, Fawzy M; Bryant, Ray B

2014-04-03

Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff.

A Protocol for Conducting Rainfall Simulation to Study Soil Runoff

PubMed Central

Kibet, Leonard C.; Saporito, Louis S.; Allen, Arthur L.; May, Eric B.; Kleinman, Peter J. A.; Hashem, Fawzy M.; Bryant, Ray B.

2014-01-01

Rainfall is a driving force for the transport of environmental contaminants from agricultural soils to surficial water bodies via surface runoff. The objective of this study was to characterize the effects of antecedent soil moisture content on the fate and transport of surface applied commercial urea, a common form of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, following a rainfall event that occurs within 24 hr after fertilizer application. Although urea is assumed to be readily hydrolyzed to ammonium and therefore not often available for transport, recent studies suggest that urea can be transported from agricultural soils to coastal waters where it is implicated in harmful algal blooms. A rainfall simulator was used to apply a consistent rate of uniform rainfall across packed soil boxes that had been prewetted to different soil moisture contents. By controlling rainfall and soil physical characteristics, the effects of antecedent soil moisture on urea loss were isolated. Wetter soils exhibited shorter time from rainfall initiation to runoff initiation, greater total volume of runoff, higher urea concentrations in runoff, and greater mass loadings of urea in runoff. These results also demonstrate the importance of controlling for antecedent soil moisture content in studies designed to isolate other variables, such as soil physical or chemical characteristics, slope, soil cover, management, or rainfall characteristics. Because rainfall simulators are designed to deliver raindrops of similar size and velocity as natural rainfall, studies conducted under a standardized protocol can yield valuable data that, in turn, can be used to develop models for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants in runoff. PMID:24748061

Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

Systematic errors in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon: the role of rainfall variability on a range of time and space scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill; Levine, Richard; Klingaman, Nicholas; Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven

2015-04-01

Despite considerable efforts worldwide to improve model simulations of the Asian summer monsoon, significant biases still remain in climatological seasonal mean rainfall distribution, timing of the onset, and northward and eastward extent of the monsoon domain (Sperber et al., 2013). Many modelling studies have shown sensitivity to convection and boundary layer parameterization, cloud microphysics and land surface properties, as well as model resolution. Here we examine the problems in representing short-timescale rainfall variability (related to convection parameterization), problems in representing synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon depressions (related to model resolution), and the relationship of each of these with longer-term systematic biases. Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity on a range of timescales ranging from ~30 minutes to daily, in the MetUM and in observations (where available), highlights how rainfall biases in the South Asian monsoon region on different timescales in different regions can be achieved in models through a combination of the incorrect frequency and/or intensity of rainfall. Over the Indian land area, the typical dry bias is related to sub-daily rainfall events being too infrequent, despite being too intense when they occur. In contrast, the wet bias regions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are mainly related to too frequent occurrence of lower-than-observed 3-hourly rainfall accumulations which result in too frequent occurrence of higher-than-observed daily rainfall accumulations. This analysis sheds light on the model deficiencies behind the climatological seasonal mean rainfall biases that many models exhibit in this region. Changing physical parameterizations alters this behaviour, with associated adjustments in the climatological rainfall distribution, although the latter is not always improved (Bush et al., 2014). This suggests a more complex interaction between the diabatic heating and the large-scale circulation than is indicated by the intensity and frequency of rainfall alone. Monsoon depressions and low pressure systems are important contributors to monsoon rainfall over central and northern India, areas where MetUM climate simulations typically show deficient monsoon rainfall. Analysis of MetUM climate simulations at resolutions ranging from N96 (~135km) to N512 (~25km) suggests that at lower resolution the numbers and intensities of monsoon depressions and low pressure systems and their associated rainfall are very low compared with re-analyses/observations. We show that there are substantial increases with horizontal resolution, but resolution is not the only factor. Idealised simulations, either using nudged atmospheric winds or initialised coupled hindcasts, which improve (strengthen) the mean state monsoon and cyclonic circulation over the Indian peninsula, also result in a substantial increase in monsoon depressions and associated rainfall. This suggests that a more realistic representation of monsoon depressions is possible even at lower resolution if the larger-scale systematic error pattern in the monsoon is improved.

Quantification of soil surface roughness evolution under simulated rainfall

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil surface roughness is commonly identified as one of the dominant factors governing runoff and interrill erosion. The objective of this study was to compare several existing soil surface roughness indices and to test the Revised Triangular Prism surface area Method (RTPM) as a new approach to cal...

Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, R.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

Improving a spatial rainfall product using a data-mining approach and its effect on the hydrological response of a meso-scale catchment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, F.; Stisen, S.; Demirel, C.

2017-12-01

The spatial representation of rainfall is of primary importance to correctly study the uncertainty of basin recharge and its propagation to the surface and underground circulation. We consider here the daily grid rainfall product provided by the Danish Meteorological Institute as input to the National Water Resources Model of Denmark. Due to a drastic reduction in the rain gauge network (from approximately 500 stations in the period 1996-2006, to 250 in the period 2007-2014), the grid rainfall product, based on the interpolation of these data, is much less reliable. The research is focused on the Skjern catchment (1,050 km2 western Jutland), where we can dispose of the complete rain-gauge database from the Danish Hydrological Observatory and compute the distributed hydrological response at the 1-km scale.To give a better estimation of the gridded rainfall input, we start from ground measurements by simulating the missing data with a stochastic data-mining approach, then we compute again the grid interpolation. To maximize the predictive power of the technique, combinations of station time-series that are the most informative to each other are selected on the basis of their correlation and available historical data. Then, the missing data inside these time-series are simulated together using the direct sampling technique (DS) [1, 2]. DS simulates a datum by sampling the historical record of the same stations where a similar data pattern occurs, preserving their complex statistical relation. The simulated data are reinjected in the whole dataset and used as well as conditioning data to progressively fill up the gaps in other stations.The results show that the proposed methodology, tested on the period 1995-2012, can increase the realism of the grid rainfall product by regenerating the missing ground measurements. The hydrological response is analyzed considering the observations at 5 hydrological stations. The presented methodology can be used in many regions to regenerate the missing data using the information contained in the historical record and propagate the uncertainty of the prediction to the hydrological response. [1] G.Mariethoz et al. (2010), Water Resour. Res., 10.1029/2008WR007621.[2] F. Oriani et al. (2014), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 10.5194/hessd-11-3213-2014.

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

Internally Generated and Externally Forced Multidecadal Oceanic Modes and their Influence on the Summer Rainfall over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, D.; Hu, A.

2017-12-01

The interdecadal oceanic variabilities can be generated from both internal and external processes, and these variabilities can significantly modulate our climate on global and regional scale, such as the warming slowdown in the early 21st century, and the rainfall in East Asia. By analyzing simulations from a unique Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (CESM_LE) project, we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is primarily an internally generated oceanic variability, while the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may be an oceanic variability generated by internal oceanic processes and modulated by external forcings in the 20th century. Although the observed relationship between IPO and the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YHRV) summer rainfall in China is well simulated in both the preindustrial control and 20th century ensemble, none of the 20th century ensemble members can reproduce the observed time evolution of both IPO and YHRV due to the unpredictable nature of IPO on multidecade timescale. On the other hand, although CESM_LE cannot reproduce the observed relationship between AMO and Huanghe River valley (HRV) summer rainfall of China in the preindustrial control simulation, this relationship in the 20th century simulations is well reproduced, and the chance to reproduce the observed time evolution of both AMO and HRV rainfall is about 30%, indicating the important role of the interaction between the internal processes and the external forcing to realistically simulate the AMO and HRV rainfall.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

An evaluation of the uncertainty of extreme events statistics at the WMO/CIMO Lead Centre on precipitation intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.

2012-12-01

Improving the quality of point-scale rainfall measurements is a crucial issue fostered in recent years by the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) by providing recommendations on the standardization of equipment and exposure, instrument calibration and data correction as a consequence of various comparative campaigns involving manufacturers and national meteorological services from the participating countries. The WMO/CIMO Lead Centre on Precipitation Intensity (LC) was recently constituted, in a joint effort between the Dep. of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering of the University of Genova and the Italian Air Force Met Service, gathering the considerable asset of data and information achieved by the past infield and laboratory campaigns with the aim of researching novel methodologies for improving the accuracy of rainfall intensity (RI) measurement techniques. Among the ongoing experimental activities carried out by the LC laboratory particular attention is paid to the reliability evaluation of extreme rainfall events statistics , a common tool in the engineering practice for urban and non urban drainage system design, based on real world observations obtained from weighing gauges. Extreme events statistics were proven already to be highly affected by the traditional tipping-bucket rain gauge RI measurement inaccuracy (La Barbera et al., 2002) and the time resolution of the available RI series certainly constitutes another key-factor in the reliability of the derived hyetographs. The present work reports the LC laboratory efforts in assembling a rainfall simulation system to reproduce the inner temporal structure of the rainfall process by means of dedicated calibration and validation tests. This allowed testing of catching type rain gauges under non-steady flow conditions and quantifying, in a first instance, the dynamic behaviour of the investigated instruments. Considerations about the influence of the dynamic response on the uncertainty budget of modern rain gauges is also shown . The analysis proceeds with the laboratory simulation of the annual maximum rainfall events recorded for different durations at the Villa Cambiaso meteo-station (University of Genova) over the last two decades. Results are reported and discussed in a comparative form involving the derived extreme events statistics. REFERENCES La Barbera P., Lanza L.G. and Stagi L. (2002). Influence of systematic mechanical errors of tipping-bucket rain gauges on the statistics of rainfall extremes. Water Sci. Techn., 45(2), 1-9. Colli M., Lanza L.G., and Chan P.W. (2011). Co-located tipping-bucket and optical drop counter RI measurements and a simulated correction algorithm, Atmos. Res., doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.018 Colli M., Lanza L.G., La Barbera P. (2012). Weighing gauges measurement errors and the design rainfall for urban scale applications. 9th International workshop on precipitation in urban areas. St.Moritz, Switzerland, 6-9 December 2012 Lanza L.G. and Vuerich E. (2009). The WMO Field Intercomparison of Rain Intensity Gauges. Atmos. Res., 94, 534-543.

A point-infiltration model for estimating runoff from rainfall on small basins in semiarid areas of Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rankl, James G.

1990-01-01

A physically based point-infiltration model was developed for computing infiltration of rainfall into soils and the resulting runoff from small basins in Wyoming. The user describes a 'design storm' in terms of average rainfall intensity and storm duration. Information required to compute runoff for the design storm by using the model include (1) soil type and description, and (2) two infiltration parameters and a surface-retention storage parameter. Parameter values are tabulated in the report. Rainfall and runoff data for three ephemeral-stream basins that contain only one type of soil were used to develop the model. Two assumptions were necessary: antecedent soil moisture is some long-term average, and storm rainfall is uniform in both time and space. The infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters were determined for the soil of each basin. Observed rainstorm and runoff data were used to develop a separation curve, or incipient-runoff curve, which distinguishes between runoff and nonrunoff rainfall data. The position of this curve defines the infiltration and surface-retention storage parameters. A procedure for applying the model to basins that contain more than one type of soil was developed using data from 7 of the 10 study basins. For these multiple-soil basins, the incipient-runoff curve defines the infiltration and retention-storage parameters for the soil having the highest runoff potential. Parameters were defined by ranking the soils according to their relative permeabilities and optimizing the position of the incipient-runoff curve by using measured runoff as a control for the fit. Analyses of runoff from multiple-soil basins indicate that the effective contributing area of runoff is less than the drainage area of the basin. In this study, the effective drainage area ranged from 41.6 to 71.1 percent of the total drainage area. Information on effective drainage area is useful in evaluating drainage area as an independent variable in statistical analyses of hydrologic data, such as annual peak frequency distributions and sediment yield.A comparison was made of the sum of the simulated runoff and the sum of the measured runoff for all available records of runoff-producing storms in the 10 study basins. The sums of the simulated runoff ranged from 12.0 percent less than to 23.4 percent more than the sums of the measured runoff. A measure of the standard error of estimate was computed for each data set. These values ranged from 20 to 70 percent of the mean value of the measured runoff. Rainfall-simulator infiltrometer tests were made in two small basins. The amount of water uptake measured by the test in Dugout Creek tributary basin averaged about three times greater than the amount of water uptake computed from rainfall and runoff data. Therefore, infiltrometer data were not used to determine infiltration rates for this study.

Accessing the capability of TRMM 3B42 V7 to simulate streamflow during extreme rain events: Case study for a Himalayan River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brijesh; Lakshmi, Venkat

2018-03-01

The paper examines the quality of Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 precipitation product to simulate the streamflow using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various rainfall intensities over the Himalayan region. The SWAT model has been set up for Gandak River Basin with 41 sub-basins and 420 HRUs. Five stream gauge locations are used to simulate the streamflow for a time span of 10 years (2000-2010). Daily streamflow for the simulation period is collected from Central Water Commission (CWC), India and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal. The simulation results are found good in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) {>}0.65, coefficient of determination (R2) {>}0.67 and Percentage Bias (PBIAS){<}15%, at each stream gauge sites. Thereafter, we have calculated the PBIAS and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) statistics between TRMM simulated and observed streamflow for various rainfall intensity classes, viz., light ({<}7.5 mm/d), moderate (7.5 to 35.4 mm/d), heavy (35.5 to 124.4 mm/d) and extremely heavy ({>}124.4 mm/d). The PBIAS and RSR show that TRMM simulated streamflow is suitable for moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. However, it does not perform well for light- and extremely-heavy rainfall intensities. The finding of the present work is useful for the problems related to water resources management, irrigation planning and hazard analysis over the Himalayan regions.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications. The

A Simple Lightning Assimilation Technique For Improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: Force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly-averaged bias of 6-h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 mm to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF appli

A field evaluation of a satellite microwave rainfall sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caridi, Andrea; Caviglia, Daniele D.; Colli, Matteo; Delucchi, Alessandro; Federici, Bianca; Lanza, Luca G.; Pastorino, Matteo; Randazzo, Andrea; Sguerso, Domenico

2017-04-01

An innovative environmental monitoring system - Smart Rainfall System (SRS) - that estimates rainfall in real-time by means of the analysis of the attenuation of satellite signals (DVB-S in the microwave Ku band) is presented. Such a system consists in a set of peripheral microwave sensors placed on the field of interest, and connected to a central processing and analysis node. It has been developed jointly by the University of Genoa, with its departments DITEN and DICCA and the Genoese SME "Darts Engineering Srl". This work discusses the rainfall intensity measurements accuracy and sensitivity performance of SRS, based on preliminary results from a field comparison experiment at the urban scale. The test-bed is composed by a set of preliminary measurement sites established from Autumn 2016 in the Genoa (Italy) municipality and the data collected from the sensors during a selection of rainfall events is studied. The availability of point-scale rainfall intensity measurements made by traditional tipping-bucket rain gauges and radar areal observations allows a comparative analysis of the SRS performance. The calibration of the reference rain gauges has been carried out at the laboratories of DICCA using a rainfall simulator and the measurements have been processed taking advantage of advanced algorithms to reduce counting errors. The experimental set-up allows a fine tuning of the retrieval algorithm and a full characterization of the accuracy of the rainfall intensity estimates from the microwave signal attenuation as a function of different precipitation regimes.

A Novel Analysis Of The Connection Between Indian Monsoon Rainfall And Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, S.; Narasimha, R.

2005-12-01

The existence of possible correlations between the solar cycle period as extracted from the yearly means of sunspot numbers and any periodicities that may be present in the Indian monsoon rainfall has been addressed using wavelet analysis. The wavelet transform coefficient maps of sunspot-number time series and those of the homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall annual time series data reveal striking similarities, especially around the 11-year period. A novel method to analyse and quantify this similarity devising statistical schemes is suggested in this paper. The wavelet transform coefficient maxima at the 11-year period for the sunspot numbers and the monsoon rainfall have each been modelled as a point process in time and a statistical scheme for identifying a trend or dependence between the two processes has been devised. A regression analysis of parameters in these processes reveals a nearly linear trend with small but systematic deviations from the regressed line. Suitable function models for these deviations have been obtained through an unconstrained error minimisation scheme. These models provide an excellent fit to the time series of the given wavelet transform coefficient maxima obtained from actual data. Statistical significance tests on these deviations suggest with 99% confidence that the deviations are sample fluctuations obtained from normal distributions. In fact our earlier studies (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, No. 5) revealed that average rainfall is higher during periods of greater solar activity for all cases, at confidence levels varying from 75% to 99%, being 95% or greater in 3 out of 7 of them. Analysis using standard wavelet techniques reveals higher power in the 8--16 y band during the higher solar activity period, in 6 of the 7 rainfall time series, at confidence levels exceeding 99.99%. Furthermore, a comparison between the wavelet cross spectra of solar activity with rainfall and noise (including those simulating the rainfall spectrum and probability distribution) revealed that over the two test-periods respectively of high and low solar activity, the average cross power of the solar activity index with rainfall exceeds that with the noise at z-test confidence levels exceeding 99.99% over period-bands covering the 11.6 y sunspot cycle (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, SORCE 2005 14-16th September, at Durango, Colorado USA). These results provide strong evidence for connections between Indian rainfall and solar activity. The present study reveals in addition the presence of subharmonics of the solar cycle period in the monsoon rainfall time series together with information on their phase relationships.

Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duncker, James J.; Melching, Charles S.

1998-01-01

Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of impervious land cover in the watershed and errors in measuring rainfall for convective storms. Overall, the results of regional calibration and verification of the rainfall-runoff model indicate the simulated rainfall-runoff relations are adequate for stormwater-management planning and design for watersheds in Du Page County.

HD Hydrological modelling at catchment scale using rainfall radar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini Rossano. Ciampalini@Gmail. Com), Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Augas, Julien; Moussa, Roger; Colin, François; Le Bissonnais, Yves

2017-04-01

Hydrological simulations at catchment scale repose on the quality and data availability both for soil and rainfall data. Soil data are quite easy to be collected, although their quality depends on the resources devoted to this task, rainfall data observations, instead, need further effort because of their spatiotemporal variability. Rainfalls are normally recorded with rain gauges located in the catchment, they can provide detailed temporal data, but, the representativeness is limited to the point where the data are collected. Combining different gauges in space can provide a better representation of the rainfall event but the spatialization is often the main obstacle to obtain data close to the reality. Since several years, radar observations overcome this gap providing continuous data registration, that, when properly calibrated, can offer an adequate, continuous, cover in space and time for medium-wide catchments. Here, we use radar records for the south of the France on the La Peyne catchment with the protocol there adopted by the national meteo agency, with resolution of 1 km space and 5' time scale observations. We present here the realisation of a model able to perform from rainfall radar observations, continuous hydrological and soil erosion simulations. The model is semi-theoretically based, once it simulates water fluxes (infiltration-excess overland flow, saturation overland flow, infiltration and channel routing) with a cinematic wave using the St. Venant equation on a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, and, an empirical representation of sediment load as adopted in models such as STREAM-LANDSOIL (Cerdan et al., 2002, Ciampalini et al., 2012). The advantage of this approach is to furnish a dynamic representation - simulation of the rainfall-runoff events more easily than using spatialized rainfalls from meteo stations and to offer a new look on the spatial component of the events.

Vertical Motion Changes Related to North-East Brazil Rainfall Variability: a GCM Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roucou, Pascal; Oribe Rocha de Aragão, José; Harzallah, Ali; Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge

1996-08-01

The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970- 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationships in the simulation than in the observations. This is particularly true with the SST gradient in the Atlantic (Atlantic dipole). Analyses on 200 ;hPa velocity potential, vertical velocity, and vertical integral of the zonal component of mass flux are performed for years of abnormal rainfall and positive/negative SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in March-April during the rainy season over the Nordeste region. The results at 200 hPa show a convergence anomaly over Nordeste and a divergence anomaly over the Pacific concomitant with dry seasons associated with warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and warm (cold) waters in the North (South) Atlantic. During drought years convection inside the ITCZ indicated by the vertical velocity exhibits a displacement of the convection zone corresponding to a northward migration of the ITCZ. The east-west circulation depicted by the zonal divergent mass flux shows subsiding motion over Nordeste and ascending motion over the Pacific in drought years, accompanied by warm waters in the eastern Pacific and warm/cold waters in northern/southern Atlantic. Rainfall variability of the Nordeste rainfall is linked mainly to vertical motion and SST variability through the migration of the ITCZ and the east-west circulation.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Soil Erosion in agro-industrially used Landscapes between High and Anti-Atlas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Marzolff, I.; d'Oleire-Oltmanns, S.

2012-04-01

The Souss basin is characterised by high population dynamics and changing land use. Extensive plantations of citrus fruits, bananas and vegetables in monocropping, mainly for the European market, replace the traditional mixed agriculture with small-area olive orchards and cereal fields. A precipitation of around 200 mm enforces the irrigation of cultivation by deep wells. The spatial vicinity of highly engineered irrigation areas, which are often created by land-levelling measures, and housing estates with highly active gully systems and rapid badland development presents a risk to both the agro-industrial land use and the population settlements. It is investigated whether the levelling measures influence surface runoff and soil erosion and thereby affect the further gully development. The influences of surface characteristics on runoff and soil erosion are analysed. Therefore 91 rainfall simulation experiments using a small portable rainfall simulator and 33 infiltrations by means of a single ring infiltrometer are carried out on seven test sites nearby the city of Taroudant. The rainfall simulations (30 minutes, 40 mm h-1) show an average runoff coefficient of between 54 and 59 % on test sites with land-levelling measures and average runoff coefficients ranging between 36 and 48 % on mostly non-levelled test sites. The average of soil erosion lies on levelled test sites between 52.1 and 81.8 g m-2, on non-levelled test-sites between 13.2 und 23.2 g m-2 per 30 minutes. Accordingly, all the test sites have a rather low infiltration capacity. This can also be confirmed by the low average infiltration depth of only 15.5 cm on levelled test sites. There is often a clear borderline at horizons with a high bulk density caused by compaction. In contrast, on non-levelled test sites, the average infiltration depth reaches 22.2 cm. Reinforcing factors for runoff and soil erosion are slope and soil crusts. Vegetation cover has a reducing influence on surface process activity. Medium rock fragment cover shows high rates of runoff and soil erosion. Hitherto collected data show an explicit difference between levelled and non-levelled test sites. Land-levelling measures clearly influence the generation of surface runoff and soil erosion and consequently, advance the further gully development.

Characteristics of Heavy Summer Rainfall in Southwestern Taiwan in Relation to Orographic Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Ching-Sen; Chen, Wan-Chin; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

On the windward side of southwestern Taiwan, about a quarter to a half of all rainfall during mid-July through August from 1994 to 2000 came from convective systems embedded in the southwesterly monsoon flow. k this study, the causes of two heavy rainfall events (daily rainfall exceeding 100 mm day over at least three rainfall stations) observed over the slopes and/or lowlands of southwestern Taiwan were examined. Data from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts /Tropical Ocean- Global Atmosphere (EC/TOGA) analyses, the rainfall stations of the Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System (ARMTS) and the conventional surface stations over Taiwan, and the simulation results from a regional-scale numerical model were used to accomplish the objectives. In one event (393 mm day on 9 August 1999), heavy rainfall was observed over the windward slopes of southern Taiwan in a potentially unstable environment with very humid air around 850 hPa. The extreme accumulation was simulated and attributed to orographic lifting effects. No preexisting convection drifted in from the Taiwan Strait into western Taiwan.

A novel approach to model dynamic flow interactions between storm sewer system and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tsang-Jung; Wang, Chia-Ho; Chen, Albert S.

2015-05-01

In this study, we developed a novel approach to simulate dynamic flow interactions between storm sewers and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas. The proposed approach couples the one-dimensional (1D) sewer flow model (SFM) and the two-dimensional (2D) overland flow model (OFM) with different techniques depending on the land cover type of the study areas. For roads, pavements, plazas, and so forth where rainfall becomes surface runoff before entering the sewer system, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated directly in the 2D OFM, and the runoff is drained to the sewer network via inlets, which is regarded as the input to 1D SFM. For green areas on which rainfall falls into the permeable ground surface and the generated direct runoff traverses terrain, the deduction rate is applied to the rainfall for reflecting the soil infiltration in the 2D OFM. For flat building roofs with drainage facilities allowing rainfall to drain directly from the roof to sewer networks, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated using the hydrological module in the 1D SFM where no rainfall is applied to these areas in the 2D OFM. The 1D SFM is used for hydraulic simulations in the sewer network. Where the flow in the drainage network exceeds its capacity, a surcharge occurs and water may spill onto the ground surface if the pressure head in a manhole exceeds the ground elevation. The overflow discharge from the sewer system is calculated by the 1D SFM and considered a point source in the 2D OFM. The overland flow will return into the sewer network when it reaches an inlet that connects to an un-surcharged manhole. In this case, the inlet is considered as a point sink in the 2D OFM and an inflow to a manhole in the 1D SFM. The proposed approach was compared to other five urban flood modelling techniques with four rainfall events that had previously recorded inundation areas. The merits and drawbacks of each modelling technique were compared and discussed. Based on the simulated results, the proposed approach was found to simulate floodings closer to the survey records than other approaches because the physical rainfall-runoff phenomena in urban environment were better reflected.

A simple model for farmland nitrogen loss to surface runoff with raindrop driven process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, J.; Li, J.

2016-12-01

It has been widely recognized that surface runoff from the agricultural fields is an important source of non-point source pollution (NPSP). Moreover, as the agricultural country with the largest nitrogen fertilizer production, import and consumption in the world, our nation should pay greater attention to the over-application and inefficient use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer, which may cause severe pollution both in surface water and groundwater. To figure out the transfer mechanism between the soil solution and surface runoff, lots of laboratory test were conducted and related models were established in this study. But little of them was carried out in field scale since a part of variables are hard to control and some uncontrollable natural factors including rainfall intensity, temperature, wind speeds, soil spatial heterogeneity etc., may affect the field experimental results. Despite that, field tests can better reflect the mechanism of soil chemical loss to surface runoff than laboratory experiments, and the latter tend to oversimplify the environmental conditions. Therefore, a physically based, nitrogen transport model was developed and tested with so called semi-field experiments (i.e., artificial rainfall instead of natural rainfall was applied in the test). Our model integrated both raindrop driven process and diffusion effect along with the simplified nitrogen chain reactions. The established model was solved numerically through the modified Hydrus-1d source code, and the model simulations closely agree with the experimental data. Furthermore, our model indicates that the depth of the exchange layer and raindrop induced water transfer rate are two important parameters, and they have different impacts on the simulation results. The study results can provide references for preventing and controlling agricultural NPSP.

Simulating the impacts of chronic ozone exposure on plant conductance and photosynthesis, and on the regional hydroclimate using WRF/Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jialun; Mahalov, Alex; Hyde, Peter

2016-11-01

The Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is modified to include the effects of chronic ozone exposure (COE) on plant conductance and photosynthesis (PCP) found from field experiments. Based on the modified WRF/Chem, the effects of COE on regional hydroclimate have been investigated over the continental United States. Our results indicate that the model with/without modification in its current configuration can reproduce the rainfall and temperature patterns of the observations and reanalysis data, although it underestimates rainfall in the central Great Plains and overestimates it in the eastern coast states. The experimental tests on the effects of COE include setting different thresholds of ambient ozone concentrations ([O3]) and using different linear regressions to quantify PCP against the COE. Compared with the WRF/Chem control run (i.e., without considering the effects of COE), the modified model at different experiment setups improves the simulated estimates of rainfall and temperatures in Texas and regions to the immediate north. The simulations in June, July and August of 2007-2012 show that surface [O3] decrease latent heat fluxes (LH) by 10-27 W m-2, increase surface air temperatures (T 2) by 0.6 °C-2.0 °C, decrease rainfall by 0.9-1.4 mm d-1, and decrease runoff by 0.1-0.17 mm d-1 in Texas and surrounding areas, all of which highly depends on the precise experiment setup, especially the [O3] threshold. The mechanism producing these results is that COE decreases the LH and increases sensible heat fluxes, which in turn increases the Bowen ratios and air temperatures. This lowering of the LH also results in the decrease of convective potential and finally decreases convective rainfall. Employing this modified WRF/Chem model in any high [O3] region can improve the understanding of the interactions of vegetation, meteorology, chemistry/emissions, and crop productivity.

Characterization of Solute Transport in Subsurface Using Permeable Pavement and Artificial Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HAN, K.; Hong, U.; Yeum, Y.; Yoon, J.; Lee, J.; Song, K.; Kwon, S.; Kim, Y.

2016-12-01

Permeable block as low impact development (LID) management can reduce storm water runoff, improve surface water quality and increase groundwater recharge. Recently, in Korea, application of the permeable block has growing trend for urban planning. However, few studies have evaluated how infiltrated rainfall through permeable block affect groundwater quality. Therefore, we conducted monitoring and evaluating of contaminants transport from permeable block surface to aquifer at LID installed three test-bed site. Pollutant materials as total nitrogen (T-N), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), total phosphorus (T-P), phosphate (PO42-), total organic carbon (TOC), sodium (Na+) and bromide (Br-) such as nonreactive tracer were sprinkled under permeable block and sprayed artificial precipitation of 100 mm/hr intensity during a 4 hours by rainfall simulator. All the test-bed area is 2 m x 2 m and monitoring wells were drilled a maximum depth of 10 m. Test-bed 1,2 and 3 groundwater level was approximately 1.9 m, 3.6 m and 4.6 m below ground surface, respectively. Test-bed 1 and 2, time to maximum concentration of Br- as tracer were 0.15 day and 1.71 day after simulated rainfall. In the test-bed 1, average normalized concentration (C* = Cmonitoring/C0, C0 is mass of sprinkled pollutant divide by sprayed water volume) of Br-, T-N, NO3-, NH4+, T-P, PO42-, TOC and Na+ were observed 0.26, 0.08, 0.14, N.D(not detected), 0.05, 0.05, 0.13 and 0.11, respectively. C* of tracer and other solutes on test-bed 2 were 0.52, 0.15, 0.25, N.D, 0.02, 0.02, 0.16 and 0.15, respectively. These phenomena that distinctions between C* of Br-and other solutes indicate to occur retardation by physical/chemical and biological process while pollutant containing water permeate from unsaturated soil to saturated aquifer. However, at the test-bed 3 distinct concentration of all solutes were not detected until 40 days. In this study evaluated the effects of groundwater quality by rainfall leachate from permeable block. Infiltration rate of solutes were measured NO3- > TOC > Na+ >>> PO42- > NH4+. Especially, these results suggested that organic N and T-P (PO42-) need not consideration for groundwater quality at permeable LID system.

The relevance of wind-driven rain for future soil erosion research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fister, Wolfgang; Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; Seeger, Manuel; Heckrath, Goswin; Greenwood, Philip; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.; Ries, Johannes B.

2014-05-01

The influence of wind on falling raindrops and its potential to alter soil erosion rates was already proposed during the 1960s, but never really reached broad awareness in the soil erosion research community. Laboratory investigations over the last 15 years confirmed earlier findings and have proven that wind modifies the characteristics of falling raindrops in many ways. Most importantly, the impact angles and impact frequencies, as well as the drop velocities, drop sizes and hence the kinetic energy are modified. Consequently, the results of laboratory experiments on highly disturbed, loose, and mostly sandy substrates indicate that soil detachment and transport/splash distances of particles increase under the influence of wind. However, these experiments cannot reflect the complexity of naturally developed soils and a direct transfer of these findings to field conditions is therefore limited. So far, only a few field studies have reported increased erosion rates due to splash drift or increased runoff by wind-driven rain. Because of the lack of simultaneous reference measurements without the influence of wind, these studies were not able to discriminate between the different processes and thus couldn not clearly prove the relevance of wind-driven rainfall. Despite all these findings, the awareness of this phenomenon is, in our opinion, still limited. Almost all rainfall simulations exclude the factor of wind as a disturbance to reach more representative rainfall conditions on the plot. We think, that among other reasons, this underestimation of the influence of wind could be due to the absence of an adequate measurement device to simulate these processes and additionally, due to the fact that the relevance of wind-driven rain in a landscape context has not yet been proven. To overcome this lack of a useful device, and to take the research from the laboratory to the field on real soils again, the first portable wind and rainfall simulator was developed within this PhD-project. By measuring soil erosion rates on the same plot, both with and without wind application, the influence of wind on soil detachment and erosion rates can now clearly be determined. Field experiments with the Portable Wind and Rainfall Simulator, which were carried out in Andalusia (Spain), in Wageningen (The Netherlands), and in Foulum (Denmark) during and within 3 years after finishing the PhD-project, aimed to improve the knowledge of processes involved, and to show the relevance of wind-driven rainfall erosion. The results indicate that the influence of wind depends on the complexity of the landscape. In an environment with homogenous conditions (loose sand mixture) and only a few variable factors (i.e. no vegetation, no surface roughness, no slope), like the test site in Wageningen, the increase of erosion rates due to the influence of wind could be seen in almost every test run. This clear influence of wind decreased with the amount of involved factors from agricultural soils in Denmark with a homogenous sandy texture and steep slopes, to highly degraded abandoned/fallow land with thick soil crusts and a clay-silt texture in Andalusia. The results obtained by "simple" rainfall simulations, therefore, clearly underestimate soil erosion rates, depending on the environment. This could, in our opinion, have strong implications for future soil erosion research and modelling.

Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho

2017-07-01

Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

Commercial application of rainfall simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loch, Rob J.

2010-05-01

Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected to rain; and • Regular calibration of all equipment. In general, typical errors when rainfall simulation is carried out by inexperienced researchers include: • Failure to accurately measure rainfall rates (the most common error); • Inappropriate initial conditions, including wetting treatments; • Use of inappropriately small plots - relating to our concern at the erosion processes considered be those of genuine field relevance; • Inappropriate rainfall kinetic energies; and • Failure to observe critical processes operating on the study plots, such as saturation excess or the presence of impeding layers at shallow depths. Landloch regularly uses erodibility data to design stable batter profiles for minesite waste dumps. Subsequent monitoring of designed dumps has confirmed that modelled erosion rates are consistent with those subsequently measured under field conditions.

A stochastical event-based continuous time step rainfall generator based on Poisson rectangular pulse and microcanonical random cascade models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Zha, Tingting; Schümberg, Sabine; Müller, Hannes; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

2017-04-01

Rainfall variability within a storm is of major importance for fast hydrological processes, e.g. surface runoff, erosion and solute dissipation from surface soils. To investigate and simulate the impacts of within-storm variabilities on these processes, long time series of rainfall with high resolution are required. Yet, observed precipitation records of hourly or higher resolution are in most cases available only for a small number of stations and only for a few years. To obtain long time series of alternating rainfall events and interstorm periods while conserving the statistics of observed rainfall events, the Poisson model can be used. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascades have been widely applied to disaggregate rainfall time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. We present a new coupling approach of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model that preserves the characteristics of rainfall events as well as inter-storm periods. In the first step, a Poisson rectangular pulse model is applied to generate discrete rainfall events (duration and mean intensity) and inter-storm periods (duration). The rainfall events are subsequently disaggregated to high-resolution time series (user-specified, e.g. 10 min resolution) by a multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model. One of the challenges of coupling these models is to parameterize the cascade model for the event durations generated by the Poisson model. In fact, the cascade model is best suited to downscale rainfall data with constant time step such as daily precipitation data. Without starting from a fixed time step duration (e.g. daily), the disaggregation of events requires some modifications of the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998): Firstly, the parameterization of the cascade model for events of different durations requires continuous functions for the probabilities of the multiplicative weights, which we implemented through sigmoid functions. Secondly, the branching of the first and last box is constrained to preserve the rainfall event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular pulse model. The event-based continuous time step rainfall generator has been developed and tested using 10 min and hourly rainfall data of four stations in North-Eastern Germany. The model performs well in comparison to observed rainfall in terms of event durations and mean event intensities as well as wet spell and dry spell durations. It is currently being tested using data from other stations across Germany and in different climate zones. Furthermore, the rainfall event generator is being applied in modelling approaches aimed at understanding the impact of rainfall variability on hydrological processes. Reference Olsson, J.: Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rainfall disaggregation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2, 19.30

A comparison of methods to estimate future sub-daily design rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J.; Sharma, A.

2017-12-01

Warmer temperatures are expected to increase extreme short-duration rainfall due to the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere. While attention has been paid to the impacts of climate change on future design rainfalls at daily or longer time scales, the potential changes in short duration design rainfalls have been often overlooked due to the limited availability of sub-daily projections and observations. This study uses a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) to predict the changes in sub-daily design rainfalls for the Greater Sydney region in Australia. Sixteen methods for predicting changes to sub-daily future extremes are assessed based on different options for bias correction, disaggregation and frequency analysis. A Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure is employed to evaluate the skill of each method in estimating the design rainfall for the current climate. It is found that bias correction significantly improves the accuracy of the design rainfall estimated for the current climate. For 1 h events, bias correcting the hourly annual maximum rainfall simulated by the RCM produces design rainfall closest to observations, whereas for multi-hour events, disaggregating the daily rainfall total is recommended. This suggests that the RCM fails to simulate the observed multi-duration rainfall persistence, which is a common issue for most climate models. Despite the significant differences in the estimated design rainfalls between different methods, all methods lead to an increase in design rainfalls across the majority of the study region.

Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zafar, Sumaira

2016-07-01

Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

A cellular automata approach for modeling surface water runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jozefik, Zoltan; Nanu Frechen, Tobias; Hinz, Christoph; Schmidt, Heiko

2015-04-01

This abstract reports the development and application of a two-dimensional cellular automata based model, which couples the dynamics of overland flow, infiltration processes and surface evolution through sediment transport. The natural hill slopes are represented by their topographic elevation and spatially varying soil properties infiltration rates and surface roughness coefficients. This model allows modeling of Hortonian overland flow and infiltration during complex rainfall events. An advantage of the cellular automata approach over the kinematic wave equations is that wet/dry interfaces that often appear with rainfall overland flows can be accurately captured and are not a source of numerical instabilities. An adaptive explicit time stepping scheme allows for rainfall events to be adequately resolved in time, while large time steps are taken during dry periods to provide for simulation run time efficiency. The time step is constrained by the CFL condition and mass conservation considerations. The spatial discretization is shown to be first-order accurate. For validation purposes, hydrographs for non-infiltrating and infiltrating plates are compared to the kinematic wave analytic solutions and data taken from literature [1,2]. Results show that our cellular automata model quantitatively accurately reproduces hydrograph patterns. However, recent works have showed that even through the hydrograph is satisfyingly reproduced, the flow field within the plot might be inaccurate [3]. For a more stringent validation, we compare steady state velocity, water flux, and water depth fields to rainfall simulation experiments conducted in Thies, Senegal [3]. Comparisons show that our model is able to accurately capture these flow properties. Currently, a sediment transport and deposition module is being implemented and tested. [1] M. Rousseau, O. Cerdan, O. Delestre, F. Dupros, F. James, S. Cordier. Overland flow modeling with the Shallow Water Equation using a well balanced numerical scheme: Adding efficiency or sum more complexity?. 2012. [2] Fritz R. Fiedler, J. A. Ramirez. A numerical method for simulating discontinuous shallow flow over an infiltrating surface. In. J. Numer. Mech. Fluids 200: 32: 219-240. [3] C. Mügler, O. Planchon, J. Patin, S. Weill, N. Silvera, P. Richard, E. Mouche. Comparison of Roughness models to simulate overland flow and tracer transport experiments under simulated rainfall at plot scale. Journal of Hydrology. 402 (2011) 25-40.

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

POLYNOMIAL-BASED DISAGGREGATION OF HOURLY RAINFALL FOR CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic modeling of urban watersheds for designs and analyses of stormwater conveyance facilities can be performed in either an event-based or continuous fashion. Continuous simulation requires, among other things, the use of a time series of rainfall amounts. However, for urb...

Parameter Tuning and Calibration of RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization Scheme over CORDEX East Asian Domain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Liwei; Qian, Yun; Zhou, Tianjun

2014-10-01

In this study, we calibrated the performance of regional climate model RegCM3 with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme over CORDEX East Asia domain by tuning the selected seven parameters through multiple very fast simulated annealing (MVFSA) sampling method. The seven parameters were selected based on previous studies, which customized the RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel scheme through three different ways by using the sensitivity experiments. The responses of model results to the seven parameters were investigated. Since the monthly total rainfall is constrained, the simulated spatial pattern of rainfall and the probability density function (PDF) distribution of daily rainfallmore » rates are significantly improved in the optimal simulation. Sensitivity analysis suggest that the parameter “relative humidity criteria” (RH), which has not been considered in the default simulation, has the largest effect on the model results. The responses of total rainfall over different regions to RH were examined. Positive responses of total rainfall to RH are found over northern equatorial western Pacific, which are contributed by the positive responses of explicit rainfall. Followed by an increase of RH, the increases of the low-level convergence and the associated increases in cloud water favor the increase of the explicit rainfall. The identified optimal parameters constrained by the total rainfall have positive effects on the low-level circulation and the surface air temperature. Furthermore, the optimized parameters based on the extreme case are suitable for a normal case and the model’s new version with mixed convection scheme.« less

49 CFR 178.609 - Test requirements for packagings for infectious substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... solid infectious substance should be replaced by water or, where conditioning at −18 °C (0 °F) is specified, by water/antifreeze. Each primary receptacle must be filled to 98 percent capacity. Packagings... packaging. (e) The samples must be subjected to a water spray to simulate exposure to rainfall of...

49 CFR 178.609 - Test requirements for packagings for infectious substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... solid infectious substance should be replaced by water or, where conditioning at −18 °C (0 °F) is specified, by water/antifreeze. Each primary receptacle must be filled to 98 percent capacity. Packagings... packaging. (e) The samples must be subjected to a water spray to simulate exposure to rainfall of...

49 CFR 178.609 - Test requirements for packagings for infectious substances.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... solid infectious substance should be replaced by water or, where conditioning at −18 °C (0 °F) is specified, by water/antifreeze. Each primary receptacle must be filled to 98 percent capacity. Packagings... packaging. (e) The samples must be subjected to a water spray to simulate exposure to rainfall of...

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.

2013-11-01

ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

Combined effects of constant versus variable intensity simulated rainfall and reduced tillage management on cotton preemergence herbicide runoff.

PubMed

Potter, Thomas L; Truman, Clint C; Strickland, Timothy C; Bosch, David D; Webster, Theodore M; Franklin, Dorcas H; Bednarz, Craig W

2006-01-01

Pesticide runoff research relies heavily on rainfall simulation experiments. Most are conducted at a constant intensity, i.e., at a fixed rainfall rate; however, large differences in natural rainfall intensity is common. To assess implications we quantified runoff of two herbicides, fluometuron and pendimethalin, and applied preemergence after planting cotton on Tifton loamy sand. Rainfall at constant and variable intensity patterns representative of late spring thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coastal Plain region of Georgia (USA) were simulated on 6-m2 plots under strip- (ST) and conventional-tillage (CT) management. The variable pattern produced significantly higher runoff rates of both compounds from CT but not ST plots. However, on an event-basis, runoff totals (% applied) were not significantly different, with one exception: fluometuron runoff from CT plots. There was about 25% more fluometuron runoff with the variable versus the constant intensity pattern (P = 0.10). Study results suggest that conduct of simulations using variable intensity storm patterns may provide more representative rainfall simulation-based estimates of pesticide runoff and that the greatest impacts will be observed with CT. The study also found significantly more fluometuron in runoff from ST than CT plots. Further work is needed to determine whether this behavior may be generalized to other active ingredients with similar properties [low K(oc) (organic carbon partition coefficient) approximately 100 mL g(-1); high water solubility approximately 100 mg L(-1)]. If so, it should be considered when making tillage-specific herbicide recommendations to reduce runoff potential.

Evaluating RGB photogrammetry and multi-temporal digital surface models for detecting soil erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Niels; Keesstra, Saskia; Seeger, Manuel

2013-04-01

Photogrammetry is a widely used tool for generating high-resolution digital surface models. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), equipped with a Red Green Blue (RGB) camera, have great potential in quickly acquiring multi-temporal high-resolution orthophotos and surface models. Such datasets would ease the monitoring of geomorphological processes, such as local soil erosion and rill formation after heavy rainfall events. In this study we test a photogrammetric setup to determine data requirements for soil erosion studies with UAVs. We used a rainfall simulator (5 m2) and above a rig with attached a Panasonic GX1 16 megapixel digital camera and 20mm lens. The soil material in the simulator consisted of loamy sand at an angle of 5 degrees. Stereo pair images were taken before and after rainfall simulation with 75-85% overlap. Acquired images were automatically mosaicked to create high-resolution orthorectified images and digital surface models (DSM). We resampled the DSM to different spatial resolutions to analyze the effect of cell size to the accuracy of measured rill depth and soil loss estimations, and determined an optimal cell size (thus flight altitude). Furthermore, the high spatial accuracy of the acquired surface models allows further analysis of rill formation and channel initiation related to e.g. surface roughness. We suggest implementing near-infrared and temperature sensors to combine soil moisture and soil physical properties with surface morphology for future investigations.

A note on the misuses of the variance test in meteorological studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Arnab; Bhattacharya, Sourabh; Banik, Pabitra; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi

2017-12-01

Stochastic modeling of rainfall data is an important area in meteorology. The gamma distribution is a widely used probability model for non-zero rainfall. Typically the choice of the distribution for such meteorological studies is based on two goodness-of-fit tests—the Pearson's Chi-square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Inspired by the index of dispersion introduced by Fisher (Statistical methods for research workers. Hafner Publishing Company Inc., New York, 1925), Mooley (Mon Weather Rev 101:160-176, 1973) proposed the variance test as a goodness-of-fit measure in this context and a number of researchers have implemented it since then. We show that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic for the variance test is generally not comparable to any central Chi-square distribution and hence the test is erroneous. We also describe a method for checking the validity of the asymptotic distribution for a class of distributions. We implement the erroneous test on some simulated, as well as real datasets and demonstrate how it leads to some wrong conclusions.

Scaling of hydrologic and erosion parameters derived from rainfall simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick; Noske, Philip; Sherwin, Christopher

2010-05-01

Rainfall simulation experiments conducted at the temporal scale of minutes and the spatial scale of meters are often used to derive parameters for erosion and water quality models that operate at much larger temporal and spatial scales. While such parameterization is convenient, there has been little effort to validate this approach via nested experiments across these scales. In this paper we first review the literature relevant to some of these long acknowledged issues. We then present rainfall simulation and erosion plot data from a range of sources, including mining, roading, and forestry, to explore the issues associated with the scaling of parameters such as infiltration properties and erodibility coefficients.

The error and bias of supplementing a short, arid climate, rainfall record with regional vs. global frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endreny, Theodore A.; Pashiardis, Stelios

2007-02-01

SummaryRobust and accurate estimates of rainfall frequencies are difficult to make with short, and arid-climate, rainfall records, however new regional and global methods were used to supplement such a constrained 15-34 yr record in Cyprus. The impact of supplementing rainfall frequency analysis with the regional and global approaches was measured with relative bias and root mean square error (RMSE) values. Analysis considered 42 stations with 8 time intervals (5-360 min) in four regions delineated by proximity to sea and elevation. Regional statistical algorithms found the sites passed discordancy tests of coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis, while heterogeneity tests revealed the regions were homogeneous to mildly heterogeneous. Rainfall depths were simulated in the regional analysis method 500 times, and then goodness of fit tests identified the best candidate distribution as the general extreme value (GEV) Type II. In the regional analysis, the method of L-moments was used to estimate location, shape, and scale parameters. In the global based analysis, the distribution was a priori prescribed as GEV Type II, a shape parameter was a priori set to 0.15, and a time interval term was constructed to use one set of parameters for all time intervals. Relative RMSE values were approximately equal at 10% for the regional and global method when regions were compared, but when time intervals were compared the global method RMSE had a parabolic-shaped time interval trend. Relative bias values were also approximately equal for both methods when regions were compared, but again a parabolic-shaped time interval trend was found for the global method. The global method relative RMSE and bias trended with time interval, which may be caused by fitting a single scale value for all time intervals.

Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2016-01-01

Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

Impact of rainfall pattern on interrill erosion process

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of rainfall pattern on the interrill erosion process is not fully understood despite its importance. Systematic rainfall simulation experiments involving different rain intensities, stages, intensity sequences, and surface cover conditions were conducted to investigate the impacts of rain...

Required spatial resolution of hydrological models to evaluate urban flood resilience measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gires, A.; Giangola-Murzyn, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

2012-04-01

During a flood in urban area, several non-linear processes (rainfall, surface runoff, sewer flow, and sub-surface flow) interact. Fully distributed hydrological models are a useful tool to better understand these complex interactions between natural processes and man built environment. Developing an efficient model is a first step to improve the understanding of flood resilience in urban area. Given that the previously mentioned underlying physical phenomenon exhibit different relevant scales, determining the required spatial resolution of such model is tricky but necessary issue. For instance such model should be able to properly represent large scale effects of local scale flood resilience measures such as stop logs. The model should also be as simple as possible without being simplistic. In this paper we test two types of model. First we use an operational semi-distributed model over a 3400 ha peri-urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis (North-East of Paris). In this model, the area is divided into sub-catchments of average size 17 ha that are considered as homogenous, and only the sewer discharge is modelled. The rainfall data, whose resolution is 1 km is space and 5 min in time, comes from the C-band radar of Trappes, located in the West of Paris, and operated by Météo-France. It was shown that the spatial resolution of both the model and the rainfall field did not enable to fully grasp the small scale rainfall variability. To achieve this, first an ensemble of realistic rainfall fields downscaled to a resolution of 100 m is generated with the help of multifractal space-time cascades whose characteristic exponents are estimated on the available radar data. Second the corresponding ensemble of sewer hydrographs is simulated by inputting each rainfall realization to the model. It appears that the probability distribution of the simulated peak flow exhibits a power-law behaviour. This indicates that there is a great uncertainty associated with small scale rainfall. Second we focus on a 50 ha catchment of this area and implement Multi-Hydro, a fully distributed urban hydrological model currently being developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (El Tabach et al., 2009). The version used in this paper consists in an interactive coupling between a 2D model representing infiltration and surface runoff (TREX, Two dimensional Runoff, Erosion and eXport model, Velleux et al., 2011) and a 1D model of sewer networks (SWMM, Storm Water Management Model, Rossman, 2007). Spatial resolution ranging from 2 m to 50 m for land use, topography and rainfall are tested. A special highlight on the impact of small scales rainfall is done. To achieve this the previously mentioned methodology is implemented with rainfall fields downscaled to 10 m in space and 20 s in time. Finally, we will discuss the gains generated by the implementation of the fully distributed model.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

PubMed

van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occurrence analysis of daily rainfalls by using non-homogeneous Poissonian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirangelo, B.; Ferrari, E.; de Luca, D. L.

2009-09-01

In recent years several temporally homogeneous stochastic models have been applied to describe the rainfall process. In particular stochastic analysis of daily rainfall time series may contribute to explain the statistic features of the temporal variability related to the phenomenon. Due to the evident periodicity of the physical process, these models have to be used only to short temporal intervals in which occurrences and intensities of rainfalls can be considered reliably homogeneous. To this aim, occurrences of daily rainfalls can be considered as a stationary stochastic process in monthly periods. In this context point process models are widely used for at-site analysis of daily rainfall occurrence; they are continuous time series models, and are able to explain intermittent feature of rainfalls and simulate interstorm periods. With a different approach, periodic features of daily rainfalls can be interpreted by using a temporally non-homogeneous stochastic model characterized by parameters expressed as continuous functions in the time. In this case, great attention has to be paid to the parsimony of the models, as regards the number of parameters and the bias introduced into the generation of synthetic series, and to the influence of threshold values in extracting peak storm database from recorded daily rainfall heights. In this work, a stochastic model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process, characterized by a time-dependent intensity of rainfall occurrence, is employed to explain seasonal effects of daily rainfalls exceeding prefixed threshold values. In particular, variation of rainfall occurrence intensity ? (t) is modelled by using Fourier series analysis, in which the non-homogeneous process is transformed into a homogeneous and unit one through a proper transformation of time domain, and the choice of the minimum number of harmonics is evaluated applying available statistical tests. The procedure is applied to a dataset of rain gauges located in different geographical zones of Mediterranean area. Time series have been selected on the basis of the availability of at least 50 years in the time period 1921-1985, chosen as calibration period, and of all the years of observation in the subsequent validation period 1986-2005, whose daily rainfall occurrence process variability is under hypothesis. Firstly, for each time series and for each fixed threshold value, parameters estimation of the non-homogeneous Poisson model is carried out, referred to calibration period. As second step, in order to test the hypothesis that daily rainfall occurrence process preserves the same behaviour in more recent time periods, the intensity distribution evaluated for calibration period is also adopted for the validation period. Starting from this and using a Monte Carlo approach, 1000 synthetic generations of daily rainfall occurrences, of length equal to validation period, have been carried out, and for each simulation sample ?(t) has been evaluated. This procedure is adopted because of the complexity of determining analytical statistical confidence limits referred to the sample intensity ?(t). Finally, sample intensity, theoretical function of the calibration period and 95% statistical band, evaluated by Monte Carlo approach, are matching, together with considering, for each threshold value, the mean square error (MSE) between the theoretical ?(t) and the sample one of recorded data, and his correspondent 95% one tail statistical band, estimated from the MSE values between the sample ?(t) of each synthetic series and the theoretical one. The results obtained may be very useful in the context of the identification and calibration of stochastic rainfall models based on historical precipitation data. Further applications of the non-homogeneous Poisson model will concern the joint analyses of the storm occurrence process with the rainfall height marks, interpreted by using a temporally homogeneous model in proper sub-year intervals.

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

Realism of Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation in a Quarter Degree Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salunke, P.; Mishra, S. K.; Sahany, S.; Gupta, K.

2017-12-01

This study assesses the fidelity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) simulations using a global model at an ultra-high horizontal resolution (UHR) of 0.25°. The model used was the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.0 (CESM 1.2.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Precipitation and temperature over the Indian region were analyzed for a wide range of space and time scales to evaluate the fidelity of the model under UHR, with special emphasis on the ISM simulations during the period of June-through-September (JJAS). Comparing the UHR simulations with observed data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) over the Indian land, it was found that 0.25° resolution significantly improved spatial rainfall patterns over many regions, including the Western Ghats and the South-Eastern peninsula as compared to the standard model resolution. Convective and large-scale rainfall components were analyzed using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim (ERA-I) data and it was found that at 0.25° resolution, there was an overall increase in the large-scale component and an associated decrease in the convective component of rainfall as compared to the standard model resolution. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall suggests a significant improvement in the phase characteristics simulated by the UHR model as compared to the standard model resolution. Analysis of the annual cycle of rainfall, however, failed to show any significant improvement in the UHR model as compared to the standard version. Surface temperature analysis showed small improvements in the UHR model simulations as compared to the standard version. Thus, one may conclude that there are some significant improvements in the ISM simulations using a 0.25° global model, although there is still plenty of scope for further improvement in certain aspects of the annual cycle of rainfall.

The Effects of More Extreme Rainfall Patterns on Infiltration and Nutrient Losses in Agricultural Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

2015-12-01

In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.

Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.

2002-01-01

To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated mean annual streamflow for the State Street gaging station at the outlet of the study basin and the simulated mean annual basin infiltration (combined infiltration from all the channels and land surfaces) were 8,720 and 41,600 acre-feet, respectively, for water years 1950-98. Simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station ranged from 16.8 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 70,400 acre-feet in water year 1993, and simulated basin infiltration ranged from 2,770 acre-feet in water year 1961 to 149,000 acre-feet in water year 1983.The effects of increased urbanization on the hydrology of the study basin were evaluated by increasing the size of the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas simulated in the calibrated rainfall-runoff model by 50 and 100 percent, respectively. The rainfall-runoff model simulated a long-term time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces using daily rainfall and potential evaporation data for water years 1950?98. Increasing the effective impervious and non-effective impervious urban areas by 100 percent resulted in a 5-percent increase in simulated mean annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station, and a 2.2-percent increase in simulated basin infiltration. Results of a frequency analysis of the simulated annual streamflow at the State Street gaging station showed that when effective impervious and non-effective impervious areas were increased 100 percent, simulated annual streamflow increased about 100 percent for low-flow conditions and was unchanged for high-flow conditions. The simulated increase in streamflow at the State Street gaging station potentially could infiltrate along the stream channel further downstream, outside of the model area.

Water Conservation Education with a Rainfall Simulator.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kok, Hans; Kessen, Shelly

1997-01-01

Describes a program in which a rainfall simulator was used to promote water conservation by showing water infiltration, water runoff, and soil erosion. The demonstrations provided a good background for the discussion of issues such as water conservation, crop rotation, and conservation tillage practices. The program raised awareness of…

Efficient Meshfree Large Deformation Simulation of Rainfall Induced Soil Slope Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dongdong; Li, Ling

2010-05-01

An efficient Lagrangian Galerkin meshfree framework is presented for large deformation simulation of rainfall-induced soil slope failure. Detailed coupled soil-rainfall seepage equations are given for the proposed formulation. This nonlinear meshfree formulation is featured by the Lagrangian stabilized conforming nodal integration method where the low cost nature of nodal integration approach is kept and at the same time the numerical stability is maintained. The initiation and evolution of progressive failure in the soil slope is modeled by the coupled constitutive equations of isotropic damage and Drucker-Prager pressure-dependent plasticity. The gradient smoothing in the stabilized conforming integration also serves as a non-local regularization of material instability and consequently the present method is capable of effectively capture the shear band failure. The efficacy of the present method is demonstrated by simulating the rainfall-induced failure of two typical soil slopes.

Aerosol-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-02-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the roles of different forcing agents as drivers of summer rainfall trends in the Australasian region. Our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols have contributed to the observed multi-decadal rainfall increase over north-western Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we performed multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. We also compare a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Simulated aerosol-induced rainfall trends over the Indo-Pacific region for austral summer and boreal summer show a distinct contrast. In boreal summer, there is a southward shift of equatorial rainfall, consistent with the idea that anthropogenic aerosols have suppressed Asian monsoonal rainfall, and caused a southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. In austral summer, the aerosol-induced response more closely resembles a westward shift and strengthening of the upward branch of the Walker circulation, rather than a coherent southward shift of regional tropical rainfall. Thus the mechanism by which anthropogenic aerosols may affect Australian summer rainfall is unclear. Focusing on summer rainfall trends over north-western Australia (NWA), we find that CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong rainfall decrease in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weak and insignificant during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase in HIST minus NO_AA. However, the magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by the ensemble mean of HIST minus NO_AA, or by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run. This suggests that the observed trend includes both a forced and unforced component. We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA. In the model, it induces moisture convergence and upward motion over NWA. The cyclonic anomaly is present in trends calculated from HIST minus NO_AA and from reanalyses. Further analysis suggests that the cyclonic circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA may be initiated as a Rossby wave response to positive convective heating anomalies south of the equator during November, when the aerosol-induced response of the model over the Indian Ocean still resembles that in boreal summer (i.e. a southward shift of equatorial rainfall). The aerosol-induced enhancement of the cyclonic circulation and associated monsoonal rainfall becomes progressively stronger from December to March, suggesting that there is a positive feedback between the source of latent heat (the Australian monsoon) and the cyclonic circulation. CSIRO-Mk3.6 indicates that anthropogenic aerosols may have masked greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region: simulated trends in RCP4.5 resemble a stronger version of those in GHGAS, and are very different from those in HIST. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these findings are model-dependent.

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

2017-10-01

The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

Freezing and drying effects on potential plant contributions to phosphorus in runoff.

PubMed

Roberson, Tiffany; Bundy, Larry G; Andraski, Todd W

2007-01-01

Phosphorus (P) in runoff from landscapes can promote eutrophication of natural waters. Soluble P released from plant material can contribute significant amounts of P to runoff particularly after plant freezing or drying. This study was conducted to evaluate P losses from alfalfa or grass after freezing or drying as potential contributors to runoff P. Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and grass (principally, Agropyron repens L.) plant samples were subjected to freezing and drying treatments to determine P release. Simulated rainfall runoff and natural runoff from established alfalfa fields and a grass waterway were collected to study P contributions from plant tissue to runoff. The effects of freezing and drying on P released from plant tissue were simulated by a herbicide treatment in selected experiments. Soluble reactive P (SP) extracted from alfalfa and grass samples was markedly increased by freezing or drying. In general, SP extracted from plant samples increased in the order fresh < frozen < frozen/thawed < dried, and averaged 1, 8, 14, and 26% of total P in alfalfa, respectively. Soluble reactive P extracted from alfalfa after freezing or drying increased with increasing soil test P (r(2) = 0.64 to 0.68), suggesting that excessive soil P levels increased the risk of plant P contributions to runoff losses. In simulated rainfall studies, paraquat (1,1'-dimethyl-4, 4''-bipyridinium ion) treatment of alfalfa increased P losses in runoff, and results suggested that this treatment simulated the effects of drying on plant P loss. In contrast to the simulated rainfall results, natural runoff studies over 2 yr did not show higher runoff P losses that could be attributed to P from alfalfa. Actual P losses likely depend on the timing and extent of plant freezing and drying and of precipitation events after freezing.

Rainfall and sheet power model for interrill erosion in steep slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Seung Sook; Deog Park, Sand; Nam, Myeong Jun

2015-04-01

The two-phase process of interrill erosion consist of the splash and detachment of individual particles from soil mass by impact of raindrops and the transport by erosive running water. Most experimental results showed that the effect of interaction between rainfall impact and surface runoff increases soil erosion in low or gentle slope. Especially, the combination of rain splash and sheet flow is the dominant runoff and erosion mechanism occurring on most steep hillslopes. In this study, a rainfall simulation was conducted to evaluate interrill erosion in steep slope with cover or non-cover. The kinetic energy of raindrops of rainfall simulator was measured by disdrometer used to measure the drop size distribution and velocity of falling raindrops and showed about 0.563 rate of that calculated from empirical equation between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity. Surface and subsurface runoff and sediment yield depended on rainfall intensity, gradient of slope, and existence of cover. Sediment from steep plots under rainfall simulator is greatly reduced by existence of the strip cover that the kinetic energy of raindrop approximates to zero. Soil erosion in steep slope with non-cover was nearly 4.93 times of that measured in plots with strip cover although runoff was only 1.82 times. The equation of a rainfall and sheet power was used to evaluate sediment yields in steep slope with cover or non-cover. The power model successfully explained physical processes for interrill erosion that combination of raindrop impact and sheet flow increases greatly soil erosion in steep slope. This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology(No. 2013R1A1A3011962).

An assessment of the feasibility of the use of satellite-only rainfall estimates for the hydrological monitoring in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Lorenzo; Caparrini, Francesca

2013-04-01

The need for accurate distributed hydrological modelling has constantly increased in last years for several purposes: agricultural applications, water resources management, hydrological balance at watershed scale, floods forecast. The main input for the hydrological numerical models is rainfall data that present, at the same time, a large availability of measures (in gauged regions, with respect to other micro-meteorological variables) and the most complex spatial patterns. While also in presence of densely gauged watersheds the spatial interpolation of the rainfall is a non-trivial problem, due to the spatial intermittence of the variable (especially at finer temporal scales), ungauged regions need an alternative source of rainfall data in order to perform the hydrological modelling. Such source can be constituted by the satellite-estimated rainfall fields, with reference to both geostationary and polar-orbit platforms. In this work the rainfall product obtained by the Aqua-AIRS sensor were used in order to assess the feasibility of the use of satellite-based rainfall as input for distributed hydrological modelling. The MOBIDIC (MOdello di BIlancio Distribuito e Continuo) model, developed at the Department of civil and Environmental Engineering of the University of Florence and operationally used by Tuscany Region and Umbria Region for flood prediction and management, was used for the experiments. In particular three experiments were carried on: a) hydrological simulation with the use of rain-gauges data, b) simulation with the use of satellite-only rainfall estimates, c) simulation with the combined use of the two sources of data in order to obtain an optimal estimate of the actual rainfall fields. The domain of the study was the central Italy. Several critical events occurred in the area were analyzed. A discussion of the results is provided.

Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Ping; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Liu, Yunyun; Yuan, Xing; Li, Xiaofan; Jiang, Xingwen

2018-05-01

To demonstrate the challenge of summer rainfall prediction and simulation in the eastern China, in this work, we examine the skill of the state-of-the-art climate models, evaluate the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on forecast skill and estimate the predictability by using perfect model approach. The challenge is further demonstrated by assessing the ability of various reanalyses in capturing the observed summer rainfall variability in the eastern China and by examining the biases in reanalyses and in a climate model. Summer rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) initiated in May from eight seasonal forecast systems have low forecast skill with linear correlation of - 0.3 to 0.5 with observations. The low forecast skill is consistent with the low perfect model score ( 0.1-0.3) of atmospheric model forced by observed SST, due to the fact that external forcing (SST) may play a secondary role in the summer rainfall variation in the eastern China. This is a common feature for the climate variation over the middle and high latitude lands, where the internal dynamical processes dominate the rainfall variation in the eastern China and lead to low predictability, and external forcing (such as SST) plays a secondary role and is associated with predictable fraction. Even the reanalysis rainfall has some remarkable disagreements with the observation. Statistically, more than 20% of the observed variance is not captured by the mean of six reanalyses. Among the reanalyses, JRA55 stands out as the most reliable one. In addition, the reanalyses and climate model have pronounced biases in simulating the mean rainfall. These defaults mean an additional challenge in predicting the summer rainfall variability in the eastern China that has low predictability in nature.

Robust effects of cloud superparameterization on simulated daily rainfall intensity statistics across multiple versions of the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; Burt, Melissa A.; ...

2016-02-01

This study evaluates several important statistics of daily rainfall based on frequency and amount distributions as simulated by a global climate model whose precipitation does not depend on convective parameterization—Super-Parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). Three superparameterized and conventional versions of CAM, coupled within the Community Earth System Model (CESM1 and CCSM4), are compared against two modern rainfall products (GPCP 1DD and TRMM 3B42) to discriminate robust effects of superparameterization that emerge across multiple versions. The geographic pattern of annual-mean rainfall is mostly insensitive to superparameterization, with only slight improvements in the double-ITCZ bias. However, unfolding intensity distributions reveal several improvementsmore » in the character of rainfall simulated by SPCAM. The rainfall rate that delivers the most accumulated rain (i.e., amount mode) is systematically too weak in all versions of CAM relative to TRMM 3B42 and does not improve with horizontal resolution. It is improved by superparameterization though, with higher modes in regions of tropical wave, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and monsoon activity. Superparameterization produces better representations of extreme rates compared to TRMM 3B42, without sensitivity to horizontal resolution seen in CAM. SPCAM produces more dry days over land and fewer over the ocean. Updates to CAM’s low cloud parameterizations have narrowed the frequency peak of light rain, converging toward SPCAM. Poleward of 50°, where more rainfall is produced by resolved-scale processes in CAM, few differences discriminate the rainfall properties of the two models. Lastly, these results are discussed in light of their implication for future rainfall changes in response to climate forcing.« less

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

PubMed

De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo

2014-01-01

Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release and Their Retrieval for TOGA COARE Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model, SSM/I, and Ship-borne Radar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Olson, W. S.; Johnson, D.; Ferrier, B.; Kummerow, C.; Adler, R.

1999-01-01

Latent heating profiles associated with three (TOGA COARE) Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment active convective episodes (December 10-17 1992; December 19-27 1992; and February 9-13 1993) are examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model and retrieved by using the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm . The following sources of rainfall information are input into the CSH algorithm: Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1), Radar and the GCE model. Diagnostically determined latent heating profiles calculated using 6 hourly soundings are used for validation. The GCE model simulated rainfall and latent heating profiles are in excellent agreement with those estimated by soundings. In addition, the typical convective and stratiform heating structures (or shapes) are well captured by the GCE model. Radar measured rainfall is smaller than that both estimated by the GCE model and SSM/I in all three different COARE IFA periods. SSM/I derived rainfall is more than the GCE model simulated for the December 19-27 and February 9-13 periods, but is in excellent agreement with the GCE model for the December 10-17 period. The GCE model estimated stratiform amount is about 50% for December 19-27, 42% for December 11-17 and 56% for the February 9-13 case. These results are consistent with large-scale analyses. The accurate estimates of stratiform amount is needed for good latent heating retrieval. A higher (lower) percentage of stratiform rain can imply a maximum heating rate at a higher (lower) altitude. The GCE model always simulates more stratiform rain (10 to 20%) than the radar for all three convective episodes. SSM/I derived stratiform amount is about 37% for December 19-27, 48% for December 11-17 and 41% for the February 9-13 case. Temporal variability of CSH algorithm retrieved latent heating profiles using either GCE model simulated or radar estimated rainfall and stratiform amount is in good agreement with that diagnostically determined for all three periods. However, less rainfall and a smaller stratiform percentage estimated by radar resulted in a weaker (underestimated) latent heating profile and a lower maximum latent heating level compared to those determined diagnostically. Rainfall information from SSM/I can not retrieve individual convective events due to poor temporal sampling. Nevertheless, this study suggests that a good 4r, rainfall retrieval from SSM/I for a convective event always leads to a good latent heating retrieval. Sensitivity testing has been performed and the results indicate that the SSM/I derived time averaged stratiform amount may be underestimated for December 19-27. Time averaged heating profiles derived from SSM/I, however, are not in bad agreement with those derived by soundings for the December 10-17 convective period. The heating retrievals may be more accurate for longer time scales provided there is no bias in the sampling.

Evidence of equilibrium peak runoff rates in steep tropical terrain on the island of Dominica during Tropical Storm Erika, August 27, 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, Fred L.

2016-11-01

Tropical Storm Erika was a weakly organized tropical storm when its center of circulation passed more than 150 km north of the island of Dominica on August 27, 2015. Hurricane hunter flights had difficulty finding the center of circulation as the storm encountered a high shear environment. Satellite and radar observations showed gyres imbedded within the broader circulation. Radar observations from Guadeloupe show that one of these gyres formed in convergent mid-level flow triggered by orographic convection over the island of Dominica. Gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data indicated between 300 and 750 mm of rainfall on Dominica, most of it over a four hour period. The result was widespread flooding, destruction of property, and loss of life. The extremity of the rainfall on steep watersheds covered with shallow soils was hypothesized to result in near-equilibrium runoff conditions where peak runoff rates equal the watershed-average peak rainfall rate minus a small constant loss rate. Rain gauge adjusted radar rainfall estimates and indirect peak discharge (IPD) measurements from 16 rivers at watershed areas ranging from 0.9 to 31.4 km2 using the USGS Slope-Area method allowed testing of this hypothesis. IPD measurements were compared against the global envelope of maximum observed flood peaks versus drainage area and against simulations using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model to detect landslide-affected peak flows. Model parameter values were estimated from the literature. Reasonable agreement was found between GSSHA simulated peak flows and IPD measurements in some watersheds. Results showed that landslide dam failure affected peak flows in 5 of the 16 rivers, with peak flows significantly greater than the envelope curve values for the flood of record for like-sized watersheds on the planet. GSSHA simulated peak discharges showed that the remaining 11 peak flow values were plausible. Simulations of an additional 24 watersheds ranging in size from 2.2 to 75.4 km2 provided confirmation that the IPD measurements varied from 40 to nearly 100% of the envelope curve value depending on storm-total rainfall. Results presented in this paper support the hypothesis that on average, the peak discharges scaled linearly with drainage area, and the constant of proportionality was equivalent to 134 mm h-1, or a unit discharge of 37.22 m3 s-1 km-2. The results also indicate that after the available watershed storage was filled after approximately 450-500 mm of rain fell, runoff efficiencies exceeded 50-60%, and peak runoff rates were more than 80% of the peak rainfall rate minus a small constant loss rate of 20 mm h-1. These findings have important implications for design of resilient infrastructure, and means that rainfall rate was the primary determinant of peak flows once the available storage was filled in the absences of landslide dam failure.

Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

2017-04-01

The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

Regional climate modeling over the Maritime Continent: Assessment of RegCM3-BATS1e and RegCM3-IBIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianotti, R. L.; Zhang, D.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Despite its importance to global rainfall and circulation processes, the Maritime Continent remains a region that is poorly simulated by climate models. Relatively few studies have been undertaken using a model with fine enough resolution to capture the small-scale spatial heterogeneity of this region and associated land-atmosphere interactions. These studies have shown that even regional climate models (RCMs) struggle to reproduce the climate of this region, particularly the diurnal cycle of rainfall. This study builds on previous work by undertaking a more thorough evaluation of RCM performance in simulating the timing and intensity of rainfall over the Maritime Continent, with identification of major sources of error. An assessment was conducted of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) used in a coupled system with two land surface schemes: Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer System Version 1e (BATS1e) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). The model’s performance in simulating precipitation was evaluated against the 3-hourly TRMM 3B42 product, with some validation provided of this TRMM product against ground station meteorological data. It is found that the model suffers from three major errors in the rainfall histogram: underestimation of the frequency of dry periods, overestimation of the frequency of low intensity rainfall, and underestimation of the frequency of high intensity rainfall. Additionally, the model shows error in the timing of the diurnal rainfall peak, particularly over land surfaces. These four errors were largely insensitive to the choice of boundary conditions, convective parameterization scheme or land surface scheme. The presence of a wet or dry bias in the simulated volumes of rainfall was, however, dependent on the choice of convection scheme and boundary conditions. This study also showed that the coupled model system has significant error in overestimation of latent heat flux and evapotranspiration from the land surface, and specifically overestimation of interception loss with concurrent underestimation of transpiration, irrespective of the land surface scheme used. Discussion of the origin of these errors is provided, with some suggestions for improvement.

Rainfall estimation with TFR model using Ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asyiqotur Rohmah, Nabila; Apriliani, Erna

2018-03-01

Rainfall fluctuation can affect condition of other environment, correlated with economic activity and public health. The increasing of global average temperature is influenced by the increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere, which caused climate change. Meanwhile, the forests as carbon sinks that help keep the carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Climate change caused by rainfall intensity deviations can affect the economy of a region, and even countries. It encourages research on rainfall associated with an area of forest. In this study, the mathematics model that used is a model which describes the global temperatures, forest cover, and seasonal rainfall called the TFR (temperature, forest cover, and rainfall) model. The model will be discretized first, and then it will be estimated by the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The result shows that the more ensembles used in estimation, the better the result is. Also, the accurateness of simulation result is influenced by measurement variable. If a variable is measurement data, the result of simulation is better.

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Rossitsa River Basin: Flood Hazard and Risk Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Pencheva, Denislava

2017-04-01

The process of Flood Risk Management Planning and adaptation of measures for flood risk reduction as the Early Warning provoke the necessity of surveys involving Identification aspects. This project presents risk identification combining two lines of analysis: (1) Creation a mathematical model of rainfall-runoff processes in a watershed based on limited number of observed input and output variables; (2) Procedures for determination of critical thresholds - discharges/water levels corresponding to certain consequences. The pilot region is Rossitsa river basin, Sevlievo, Bulgaria. The first line of analysis follows next steps: (a) Creation and calibration of Unit Hydrograph Models based on limited number of observed data for discharge and precipitation; The survey at the selected region has 22 observations for excess rainfall and discharge. (b) The relations of UHM coefficients from the input parameters have been determined statistically, excluding the ANN model of the run-off coefficient as a function of 3 parameters (amount of precipitation two days before, soil condition, intensity of the rainfall) where a feedforward neural network is used. (c) Additional simulations with UHM aiming at generation of synthetic data for rainfall-runoff events, which extend the range of observed data; (d) Training, validation and testing a generalized regional ANN Model for discharge forecasting with 4 input parameters, where the training data set consists of synthetic data, validation and testing data sets consists of observations. A function between consequences and discharges has been reached in the second line of analysis concerning critical hazard levels determination. Unsteady simulations with the hydraulic model using three typical hydrographs for determination of the existing time for reaction from one to upper critical threshold are made. Correction of the critical thresholds aiming at providing necessary time for reaction between the thresholds and probability analysis of the finally determined critical thresholds are made. The result of the described method is a Catalogue for off-line flood hazard and risk identification. It can be used as interactive computer system, based on simulations of the ANN "Catalogue". Flood risk identification of the future rainfall event is made in a multi-dimensional space for each kind of soil conditions (dry, average wet and wet condition) and observed amount of precipitation two days before. Rainfall-runoff scenarios in case of intensive rainfall or sustained rainfall (more than 6 hours) are taken into account. Critical thresholds and hazard zones needed of specific operative activities (rescue and recovery) corresponded to each of the regulated flood protection levels (unite, municipality, regional or national) are presented. The Catalogue gives the opportunity for flood hazard scenarios extraction. Regarding that, the Catalogue is useful on the prevention stage of flood protection planning (emergency operations, measures and resources for their implementation planning) and creation of scenarios for training the Emergency Plans. Concerning application for Early Warning, it gives approximate forecast for flood hazard. The Catalogue supplies the necessary time for reaction of about 24 hours. Thus, Early Warning is possible to the responsible authorities, all parts if the Unified Rescue System, members of suitable Headquarters for disaster protection (on municipality, region or national level).

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul

2018-03-01

The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives.

Addressing the mischaracterization of extreme rainfall in regional climate model simulations - A synoptic pattern based bias correction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona

2018-01-01

Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Salciarini, D.; Godt, J.W.; Savage, W.Z.; Conversini, P.; Baum, R.L.; Michael, J.A.

2006-01-01

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.

[Responses of sap flow to natural rainfall and continuous drought of tree species growing on bedrock outcrops].

PubMed

Zhang, Hui Ling; Ding, Ya Li; Chen, Hong Song; Wang, Ke Lin; Nie, Yun Peng

2018-04-01

This study focused on bedrock outcrops, a very common habitat in karst region of southwest China. To reveal the responses of plant transpiration to natural rainfall and continuous drought, two tree species typical to this habitat, Radermachera sinica and Triadica rotundifolia, were selected as test materials. A rainout shelter was used to simulate continuous drought. The sap flow dynamics were monitored using the method of Granier's thermal dissipation probe (TDP). Our results showed that sap flow density increased to different degrees after rain in different stages of the growing season. Sap flow density of the deciduous species T. rotundifolia was always higher than that of the semi-deciduous species R. sinica. After two months without rainfall input, both species exhibited no obvious decrease in sap flow density, indicating that rainfall was not the dominant source for their water uptake, at least in the short-term. Based on the regression relationships between sap flow density and meteorological factors before and after rainfall, as well as at different stages of continuous drought, we found that the dynamics of meteorological factors contributed little to plant transpiration. The basic transpiration characteristics of both species were not changed in the circumstance of natural rainfall and short-term continuous drought, which would be closely related to the special water storage environments of bedrock outcrops and the reliance on deep water sources by tree species.

Adjusting Satellite Rainfall Error in Mountainous Areas for Flood Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.

2014-12-01

This study aims to investigate the use of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for evaluating biases of satellite rainfall estimates of flood-inducing storms in mountainous areas and associated improvements in flood modeling. Satellite-retrieved precipitation has been considered as a feasible data source for global-scale flood modeling, given that satellite has the spatial coverage advantage over in situ (rain gauges and radar) observations particularly over mountainous areas. However, orographically induced heavy precipitation events tend to be underestimated and spatially smoothed by satellite products, which error propagates non-linearly in flood simulations.We apply a recently developed retrieval error and resolution effect correction method (Zhang et al. 2013*) on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) product based on NWP analysis (or forecasting in the case of real-time satellite products). The NWP rainfall is derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) set up with high spatial resolution (1-2 km) and explicit treatment of precipitation microphysics.In this study we will show results on NWP-adjusted CMORPH rain rates based on tropical cyclones and a convective precipitation event measured during NASA's IPHEX experiment in the South Appalachian region. We will use hydrologic simulations over different basins in the region to evaluate propagation of bias correction in flood simulations. We show that the adjustment reduced the underestimation of high rain rates thus moderating the strong rainfall magnitude dependence of CMORPH rainfall bias, which results in significant improvement in flood peak simulations. Further study over Blue Nile Basin (western Ethiopia) will be investigated and included in the presentation. *Zhang, X. et al. 2013: Using NWP Simulations in Satellite Rainfall Estimation of Heavy Precipitation Events over Mountainous Areas. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 1844-1858.

Effect of liquid swine manure rate, incorporation, and timing of rainfall on phosphorus loss with surface runoff.

PubMed

Allen, Brett L; Mallarino, Antonio P

2008-01-01

Excessive manure phosphorus (P) application increases risk of P loss from fields. This study assessed total runoff P (TPR), bioavailable P (BAP), and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentrations and loads in surface runoff after liquid swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) manure application with or without incorporation into soil and different timing of rainfall. Four replicated manure P treatments were applied in 2002 and in 2003 to two Iowa soils testing low in P managed with corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotations. Total P applied each time was 0 to 80 kg P ha(-1) at one site and 0 to 108 kg P ha(-1) at the other. Simulated rainfall was applied within 24 h of P application or after 10 to 16 d and 5 to 6 mo. Nonincorporated manure P increased DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations and loads linearly or exponentially for 24-h and 10- to 16-d runoff events. On average for the 24-h events, DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations were 5.4, 4.7, and 2.2 times higher, respectively, for nonincorporated manure than for incorporated manure; P loads were 3.8, 7.7, and 3.6 times higher; and DRP and BAP concentrations were 54% of TPR for nonincorporated manure and 22 to 25% for incorporated manure. A 10- to 16-d rainfall delay resulted in DRP, BAP, and TPR concentrations that were 3.1, 2.7, and 1.1 times lower, respectively, than for 24-h events across all nonincorporated P rates, sites, and years, whereas runoff P loads were 3.8, 3.6, and 1.6 times lower, respectively. A 5- to 6-mo simulated rainfall delay reduced runoff P to levels similar to control plots. Incorporating swine manure when the probability of immediate rainfall is high reduces the risk of P loss in surface runoff; however, this benefit sharply decreases with time.

Using rainfall simulators to test wood shreddings for erosion control

Treesearch

James Gronier; Randy Foltz; Charlie Showers

2005-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service is considering alternative methods of erosion control when constructing roads, decommissioning roads, protecting lands burned by wildland fires, and reclaiming lands disturbed by other activities. This article is the second in a series of tech tips that discuss the use of wood shreddings for erosion control. The first...

A laboratory assessment of the measurement accuracy of weighing type rainfall intensity gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Chan, P. W.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.

2012-04-01

In recent years the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) fostered noticeable advancements in the accuracy of precipitation measurement issue by providing recommendations on the standardization of equipment and exposure, instrument calibration and data correction as a consequence of various comparative campaigns involving manufacturers and national meteorological services from the participating countries (Lanza et al., 2005; Vuerich et al., 2009). Extreme events analysis is proven to be highly affected by the on-site RI measurement accuracy (see e.g. Molini et al., 2004) and the time resolution of the available RI series certainly constitutes another key-factor in constructing hyetographs that are representative of real rain events. The OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge (WG) and the GEONOR T-200 vibrating-wire precipitation gauge demonstrated very good performance under previous constant flow rate calibration efforts (Lanza et al., 2005). Although WGs do provide better performance than more traditional Tipping Bucket Rain gauges (TBR) under continuous and constant reference intensity, dynamic effects seem to affect the accuracy of WG measurements under real world/time varying rainfall conditions (Vuerich et al., 2009). The most relevant is due to the response time of the acquisition system and the derived systematic delay of the instrument in assessing the exact weight of the bin containing cumulated precipitation. This delay assumes a relevant role in case high resolution rain intensity time series are sought from the instrument, as is the case of many hydrologic and meteo-climatic applications. This work reports the laboratory evaluation of Pluvio2 and T-200 rainfall intensity measurements accuracy. Tests are carried out by simulating different artificial precipitation events, namely non-stationary rainfall intensity, using a highly accurate dynamic rainfall generator. Time series measured by an Ogawa drop counter (DC) at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were aggregated at a 1-minute scale and used as reference for the artificial rain generation (Colli et al., 2012). The preliminary development and validation of the rainfall simulator for the generation of variable time steps reference intensities is also shown. The generator is characterized by a sufficiently short time response with respect to the expected weighing gauges behavior in order to ensure effective comparison of the measured/reference intensity at very high resolution in time.

Extreme precipitation forecasting in the Chilean Andean region with complex topography using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gironás, J.; Yáñez Morroni, G.; Caneo, M.; Delgado, R.

2017-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is broadly used for weather forecasting, hindcasting and researching due to its good performance. However, the atmospheric conditions for simulating are not always optimal when it includes complex topographies: affecting WRF mathematical stability and convergence, therefore, its performance. As Chile is a country strongly characterized by a complex topography and high gradients of elevation, WRF is ineffective resolving Chilean mountainous terrain and foothills. The need to own an effective weather forecasting tool relies on that Chile's main cities are located in these regions. Furthermore, the most intense rainfall events take place here, commonly caused by the presence of cutoff lows. This work analyzes a microphysics scheme ensemble to enhance initial forecasts made by the Chilean Weather Agency (DMC). These forecasts were made over the Santiago piedmont, in Quebrada de Ramón watershed, located upstream an urban area highly populated. In this region a non-existing planning increases the potential damage of a flash flood. An initial testing was made over different vertical levels resolution (39 and 50 levels), and subsequently testing with land use and surface models, and finally with the initial and boundary condition data (GFS/FNL). Our task made emphasis in analyzing microphysics and lead time (3 to 5 days before the storm peak) in the computational simulations over three extreme rainfall events between 2015 and 2017. WRF shortcoming are also related to the complex configuration of the synoptic events, even when the steep topography difficult the rainfall event peak amount, and to a lesser degree, the exact rainfall event beginning prediction. No evident trend was found in the lead time, but as expected, better results in rainfall and zero isotherm height are obtained with smaller anticipation. We found that WRF do predict properly the N-hours with the biggest amount of rainfall (5 hours corresponding to Quebrada de Ramón's time of concentration) and the temperatures during the event. This is a fundamental input to a hydrological model that could forecast flash floods. Finally, WSM-6Class microphysics was chosen as the one with best performance, but a geostatistical approach to countervail WRF forecasts' shortcomings over Andean piedmont is required.

Simulated peak flows and water-surface profiles for Scott Creek near Sylva, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

Peak flows were simulated for Scott Creek, just upstream from Sylva, in Jackson County, North Carolina, in order to provide Jackson County officials with information that can be used to improve preparation for and response to flash floods along the reach of Scott Creek that flows through Sylva. A U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was calibrated using observed rainfall and streamflow data collected from March 1994 through September 1995. Standard errors for calibration were 34 percent for runoff volumes and 21 percent for peak flows. The calibrated model was used to simulate peak flows resulting from syn- thetic rainfall amounts of 1.0, 2.5, 5.0, and 7.5 inches in 24-hour periods. For each rainfall amount, peak flows were simulated under low-, moderate-, and high-antecedent soil-moisture conditions, represented by selected 3-month periods of daily rainfall and evaporation record from nearby climatic-data measuring stations. Simulated peak flows ranged from 89 to 10,100 cubic feet per second. Profiles of water-surface elevations for selected observed and simu- lated peak flows were computed for the reach of Scott Creek that flows through Sylva, North Carolina. The profiles were computed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-2 Water Surface Profiles computer program and channel cross-section data collected by the Tennessee Valley Authority. The stage-discharge relation for Scott Creek at the simulation site has changed since the collection of the cross-section data. These changes, however, are such that the water-surface profiles presented in this report likely overestimate the true water-surface elevations at the simulation site for a given peak flow

Rainfall–runoff model parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

EPA Science Inventory

Four seasonal rainfall simulations in 2009 and 2010were applied to a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 runoff events. In all simulations, a constant rate of rainfall was applied then halted 60min after initiation of runoff, with plot-scale monitoring o...

Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

1996-11-01

The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model.The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. Models with resolution T42 performed more poorly than lower-resolution models. The higher resolution models were predominantly spectral. At low resolution, spectral versus gridpoint numerics performed with nearly equal verisimilitude. At low resolution, moisture convergence closure was slightly more preferable than other convective closure techniques. At high resolution, the models that used moisture convergence closure performed very poorly, suggesting that moisture convergence may be problematic for models with horizontal resolution T42.

Rainfall Morphology in Semi-Tropical Convergence Zones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Ferrier, Brad S.; Ray, Peter S.

2000-01-01

Central Florida is the ideal test laboratory for studying convergence zone-induced convection. The region regularly experiences sea breeze fronts and rainfall-induced outflow boundaries. The focus of this study is the common yet poorly-studied convergence zone established by the interaction of the sea breeze front and an outflow boundary. Previous studies have investigated mechanisms primarily affecting storm initiation by such convergence zones. Few have focused on rainfall morphology yet these storms contribute a significant amount precipitation to the annual rainfall budget. Low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture have both been shown to correlate with rainfall amounts in Florida. Using 2D and 3D numerical simulations, the roles of low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture in rainfall evolution are examined. The results indicate that time-averaged, vertical moisture flux (VMF) at the sea breeze front/outflow convergence zone is directly and linearly proportional to initial condensation rates. This proportionality establishes a similar relationship between VMF and initial rainfall. Vertical moisture flux, which encompasses depth and magnitude of convergence, is better correlated to initial rainfall production than surface moisture convergence. This extends early observational studies which linked rainfall in Florida to surface moisture convergence. The amount and distribution of mid-tropospheric moisture determines how rainfall associated with secondary cells develop. Rainfall amount and efficiency varied significantly over an observable range of relative humidities in the 850- 500 mb layer even though rainfall evolution was similar during the initial or "first-cell" period. Rainfall variability was attributed to drier mid-tropospheric environments inhibiting secondary cell development through entrainment effects. Observationally, 850-500 mb moisture structure exhibits wider variability than lower level moisture, which is virtually always present in Florida. A likely consequence of the variability in 850-500 moisture is a stronger statistical correlation to rainfall, which observational studies have noted. The study indicates that vertical moisture flux forcing at convergence zones is critical in determining rainfall in the initial stage of development but plays a decreasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. The mid-tropospheric moisture (e.g. environment) plays an increasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. This suggests the need to improve measurements of magnitude/depth of convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture distribution. It also highlights the need for better parameterization of entrainment and vertical moisture distribution in larger-scale models.

Rainfall: State of the Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

A physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shaojie; Zhao, Luqiang; Delgado-Tellez, Ricardo; Bao, Hongjun

2018-03-01

Conventional outputs of physics-based landslide forecasting models are presented as deterministic warnings by calculating the safety factor (Fs) of potentially dangerous slopes. However, these models are highly dependent on variables such as cohesion force and internal friction angle which are affected by a high degree of uncertainty especially at a regional scale, resulting in unacceptable uncertainties of Fs. Under such circumstances, the outputs of physical models are more suitable if presented in the form of landslide probability values. In order to develop such models, a method to link the uncertainty of soil parameter values with landslide probability is devised. This paper proposes the use of Monte Carlo methods to quantitatively express uncertainty by assigning random values to physical variables inside a defined interval. The inequality Fs < 1 is tested for each pixel in n simulations which are integrated in a unique parameter. This parameter links the landslide probability to the uncertainties of soil mechanical parameters and is used to create a physics-based probabilistic forecasting model for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The prediction ability of this model was tested in a case study, in which simulated forecasting of landslide disasters associated with heavy rainfalls on 9 July 2013 in the Wenchuan earthquake region of Sichuan province, China, was performed. The proposed model successfully forecasted landslides in 159 of the 176 disaster points registered by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province. Such testing results indicate that the new model can be operated in a highly efficient way and show more reliable results, attributable to its high prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the new model can be potentially packaged into a forecasting system for shallow landslides providing technological support for the mitigation of these disasters at regional scale.

Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana

2010-05-01

Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been obtained with small size 500-1000 cm2, easily dismantled, drop former simulators, than with larger, nozzle, or more sophisticated equipments. In this contribution there are presented some of the rainfall simulators developed and used by the main author, and some of the results obtained in different studies of practical problems under tropical and Mediterranean conditions. References Pla, I.,G.Campero, y R.Useche.1974.Physical degradación of agricultural soils in the Western Plains of Venezuela. "Trans.10th Int.Cong.Soil.Sci.Soc". 1:231-240. .Moscú Pla, I. 1975.Effects of bitumen emulsion and polyacrilamide on some physical properties of Venezuelan soils. En "Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Special Publication"• 7. 35-46. Madison. Wisconsin . (USA). Pla, I. 1977.Aggregate size and erosion control on sloping land treated with hydrophobic bitumen emulsion."Soil Conservation and Management in the Humid Tropics".109-115. John Wiley & Sons. Pla, I.1981.Simuladores de lluvia para el estudio de relaciones suelo-agua bajo agricultura de secano en los trópicos. Rev. Fac. Agron. XII(1-2):81-93.Maracay (Venezuela) Pla, I. 1986.A routine laboratory index to predict the effects of soil sealing on soil and water conservation. En "Assesment of Soil Surface Sealing and Crusting". 154-162.State Univ. of Ghent.Gante (Bélgica Pla, I., M.C. Ramos, S. Nacci, F. Fonseca y X. Abreu. 2005. Soil moisture regime in dryland vineyards of Catalunya (Spain) as influenced by climate, soil and land management. "Integrated Soil and Water Management for Orchard Development". FAO Land and Water Bulletin 10. 41-49. Roma (Italia).

Improved Land Use and Leaf Area Index Enhances WRF-3DVAR Satellite Radiance Assimilation: A Case Study Focusing on Rainfall Simulation in the Shule River Basin during July 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Junhua; Ji, Zhenming; Chen, Deliang; Kang, Shichang; Fu, Congshen; Duan, Keqin; Shen, Miaogen

2018-06-01

The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from low-level (surface-sensitive) channels, are rejected for use because of the difficulty in realistically modeling land surface emissivity and energy budgets. Here, we used an improved land use and leaf area index (LAI) dataset in the WRF-3DVAR assimilation system to explore the benefit of using improved quality of land surface information to improve rainfall simulation for the Shule River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study. The results for July 2013 show that, for low-level channels (e.g., channel 3), the underestimation of brightness temperature in the original simulation was largely removed by more realistic land surface information. In addition, more satellite data could be utilized in the assimilation because the realistic land use and LAI data allowed more satellite radiance data to pass the deviation test and get used by the assimilation, which resulted in improved initial driving fields and better simulation in terms of temperature, relative humidity, vertical convection, and cumulative precipitation.

A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

2017-12-01

Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

2017-10-01

Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

Legacy Compliance Final Report: Results of the Navy/Encapo Soil Stabilization Study at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desotell, Lloyd; Anderson, David; Rawlinson, Stuart

Historic atmospheric testing of nuclear devices at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) has resulted in large areas of plutonium-contaminated surface soils. The potential transport of these contaminated soils to onsite and offsite receptors is a concern to the land steward and local stakeholders. The primary transport pathways of interest at the NTS are sediment entrained in surface water runoff and windblown dust. This project was initially funded by the U.S. Navy and subsequently funded by the USDOE Stockpile Stewardship Program. Field tests were conducted over a 20.5 month period to evaluate the efficacy of an organic-based, surface applied emulsion tomore » reduce sediment transport from plutonium-contaminated soils. The patented emulsion was provided by Encapco Technologies LLC. Field tests were conducted within the SMOKY radioactive contamination area (CA). The SMOKY above ground nuclear test was conducted on 08/31/1957, with a reported yield of 44 kilotons and was located at N 37 degrees 10.5 minutes latitude and W 116 degrees 04.5 minutes longitude. Three 'safety tests' were also conducted within approximately 1,500 meters (5,000 feet) of the SMOKY ground zero in 1958. Safety tests are designed to test the response of a nuclear device to an unplanned external force (e.g., nearby detonation of conventional explosives). These three safety tests (CERES, OBERON, and TITANIA) resulted in dispersal of plutonium over a wide area (Bechtel Nevada, 2002). Ten 3 x 4.6 meter test plots were constructed within the SMOKY CA to conduct rainfall-runoff simulations. Six of the ten test plots were treated with the emulsion at the manufacturer recommended loading of 1.08 gallons per square meter, and four plots were held untreated as experimental controls. Separate areas were also treated to assess impacts to native vegetation and surface infiltration rate. Field tests were conducted at approximately 6, 13, and 20.5 months post emulsion treatment. Field tests consisted of rainfall-runoff simulations and double ring infiltrometer measurements. Plant vigor assessments were conducted during peak production time, approximately seven months post treatment. Rainfall was simulated at the approximate 5 minute intensity of a 50-year storm (5.1 inches per hour) for durations of four to five minutes. All runoff generated from each test plot was collected noting the time for each liter of volume. Five gallon carboys containing the runoff water and sediment were shipped to Clemson Environmental Technologies Laboratory for analysis. The samples were separated into liquid and solid fractions. Liquid and solid fractions were weighed and analyzed for Americium-241 (Am-241) by gamma spectrometry. Quality control measures used at the laboratory indicate the analytical data are accurate and reproducible. A weather station was deployed to the field site to take basic meteorological measurements including air temperature, incoming solar radiation, wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, and volumetric soil moisture content. Meteorological monitoring data indicate the climate over the test period was hot and dry with 41 days having measurable precipitation. The total precipitation for the study period was 12.5 centimeters, 37% of the long-term average. For the 20.5 month test period, 64 freeze-thaw cycles occurred. Vegetation assessments indicate the emulsion treatment did not negatively impact existing vegetation. The three rounds of double ring infiltration tests on treated surfaces indicate the infiltration rate was relatively constant over time and not significantly different from measurements taken on untreated surfaces. Significant differences were observed in the amount of runoff and sediment collected from treated and untreated plots for the first two but not the third round of rainfall-runoff simulations, indicating significant emulsion degradation after 20.5 months of exposure. Treated plots had higher total runoff volumes and sediment loads as compared to untreated plots for the first two rounds of simulations. These data indicate the treatment caused the treated surfaces to repel more of the simulated rainfall than the untreated plots but did not increase the cohesion between soil particles to resist soil particle detachment and transport with the runoff water. Am-241 concentration in collected sediments varied as a function of proximity to the safety test locations, not as a function of surface treatment. The results from field testing the Encapco emulsion indicate it is not a viable long-term option for the stabilization of radionuclide impacted surface soils at the Nevada Test Site in its current formulation. Dust suppression studies conducted by Etyemezian et al. (2006) at an uncontaminated location near the SMOKY site indicate the emulsion significantly reduced dust emissions for at least four months post application, indicating the emulsion may be useful for short-term applications.« less

The influence of synthetic hyetograph parameters on simulation results of runoff from urban catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazurkiewicz, Karolina; Skotnicki, Marcin

2018-02-01

The paper presents the results of analysis of the influence of the maximum intensity (peak) location in the synthetic hyetograph and rainfall duration on the maximum outflow from urban catchment. For the calculation Chicago hyetographs with a duration from 15 minutes to 180 minutes and peak location between 20% and 50% of the total rainfall duration were design. Runoff simulation was performed using the SWMM5 program for three models of urban catchment with area from 0.9 km2 to 6.7 km2. It was found that the increase in the rainfall peak location causes the increase in the maximum outflow up to 17%. For a given catchment the greatest maximum outflow is generated by the rainfall, which time to peak corresponds to the flow time through the catchment. Presented results may be useful for choosing the rainfall parameters for storm sewer systems modeling.

A First Approach to Global Runoff Simulation using Satellite Rainfall Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Hossain, Faisal; Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George J.

2007-01-01

Many hydrological models have been introduced in the hydrological literature to predict runoff but few of these have become common planning or decision-making tools, either because the data requirements are substantial or because the modeling processes are too complicated for operational application. On the other hand, progress in regional or global rainfall-runoff simulation has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of the primary causative factor, i.e. rainfall fluxes, continuously over space and time. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and space-borne radar sensors. Motivated by the recent increasing availability of global remote sensing data for estimating precipitation and describing land surface characteristics, this note reports a ballpark assessment of quasi-global runoff computed by incorporating satellite rainfall data and other remote sensing products in a relatively simple rainfall-runoff simulation approach: the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff Curve Number (CN) method. Using an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) as a proxy of antecedent moisture conditions, this note estimates time-varying NRCS-CN values determined by the 5-day normalized API. Driven by multi-year (1998-2006) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, quasi-global runoff was retrospectively simulated with the NRCS-CN method and compared to Global Runoff Data Centre data at global and catchment scales. Results demonstrated the potential for using this simple method when diagnosing runoff values from satellite rainfall for the globe and for medium to large river basins. This work was done with the simple NRCS-CN method as a first-cut approach to understanding the challenges that lie ahead in advancing the satellite-based inference of global runoff. We expect that the successes and limitations revealed in this study will lay the basis for applying more advanced methods to capture the dynamic variability of the global hydrologic process for global runoff monltongin real time. The essential ingredient in this work is the use of global satellite-based rainfall estimation.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is rerun using identical model configurations. Response of extreme rainfall as well as changes in thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties will be presented and analyzed. Contrasting responses across the three storm events to climate change will shed light on critical environmental factors for TC-related extreme rainfall over eastern US.

Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

2000-05-01

This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

2018-04-01

This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

Simulation and prediction the impact of climate change into water resources in Bengawan Solo watershed based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sipayung, Sinta B.; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang

2018-05-01

Bengawan Solo Watershed is one of the largest watersheds in Indonesia. This watershed flows in many areas both in Central Java and East Java. Therefore, the water resources condition greatly affects many people. This research will be conducted on prediction of climate change effect on water resources condition in terms of rainfall conditions in Bengawan Solo River Basin. The goal of this research is to know and predict the climate change impact on water resources based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model) with downscaling baseline (historical) model data from 1949 to 2005 and RCP 4.5 from 2006 to 2069. The modeling data was validated with in-situ data (measurement data). To analyse the water availability condition in Bengawan Solo Watershed, the simulation of river flow and water balance condition were done in Bengawan Solo River. Simulation of river flow and water balance conditions were done with ArcSWAT model using climate data from CCAM, DEM SRTM 90 meter, soil type, and land use data. The results of this simulation indicate there is (i) The CCAM data itself after validation has a pretty good result when compared to the insitu data. Based on CCAM simulation results, it is predicted that in 2040-2069 rainfall in Bengawan Solo River Basin will decrease, to a maximum of only about 1 mm when compared to 1971-2000. (ii) The CCAM rainfall prediction itself shows that rainfall in Bengawan Solo River basin will decline until 2069 although the decline itself is not significant and tends to be negligible (rainfall is considered unchanged) (iii) Both in the DJF and JJA seasons, precipitation is predicted to decline as well despite the significant decline. (iv) The river flow simulation show that the water resources in Bengawan Solo River did not change significantly. This event occurred because the rainfall also did not change greatly and close to 0 mm/month.

Sensitivity of goodness-of-fit statistics to rainfall data rounding off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deidda, Roberto; Puliga, Michelangelo

An analysis based on the L-moments theory suggests of adopting the generalized Pareto distribution to interpret daily rainfall depths recorded by the rain-gauge network of the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Nevertheless, a big problem, not yet completely resolved, arises in the estimation of a left-censoring threshold able to assure a good fitting of rainfall data with the generalized Pareto distribution. In order to detect an optimal threshold, keeping the largest possible number of data, we chose to apply a “failure-to-reject” method based on goodness-of-fit tests, as it was proposed by Choulakian and Stephens [Choulakian, V., Stephens, M.A., 2001. Goodness-of-fit tests for the generalized Pareto distribution. Technometrics 43, 478-484]. Unfortunately, the application of the test, using percentage points provided by Choulakian and Stephens (2001), did not succeed in detecting a useful threshold value in most analyzed time series. A deeper analysis revealed that these failures are mainly due to the presence of large quantities of rounding off values among sample data, affecting the distribution of goodness-of-fit statistics and leading to significant departures from percentage points expected for continuous random variables. A procedure based on Monte Carlo simulations is thus proposed to overcome these problems.

Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

Experimental study on influence of vegetation coverage on runoff in wind-water erosion crisscross region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinhua; Zhang, Ronggang; Sun, Juan

2018-02-01

Using artificial rainfall simulation method, 23 simulation experiments were carried out in water-wind erosion crisscross region in order to analyze the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield. The experimental plots are standard plots with a length of 20m, width of 5m and slope of 15 degrees. The simulation experiments were conducted in different vegetation coverage experimental plots based on three different rainfall intensities. According to the experimental observation data, the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and infiltration was analyzed. Vegetation coverage has a significant impact on runoff, and the higher the vegetation coverage is, the smaller the runoff is. Under the condition of 0.6mm/min rainfall intensity, the runoff volume from the experimental plot with 18% vegetation coverage was 1.2 times of the runoff from the experimental with 30% vegetation coverage. What’s more, the difference of runoff is more obvious in higher rainfall intensity. If the rainfall intensity reaches 1.32mm/min, the runoff from the experimental plot with 11% vegetation coverage is about 2 times as large as the runoff from the experimental plot with 53%vegetation coverage. Under the condition of small rainfall intensity, the starting time of runoff in the experimental plot with higher vegetation coverage is later than that in the experimental plot with low vegetation coverage. However, under the condition of heavy rainfall intensity, there is no obvious difference in the beginning time of runoff. In addition, the higher the vegetation coverage is, the deeper the rainfall infiltration depth is.The results can provide reference for ecological construction carried out in wind erosion crisscross region with serious soil erosion.

WegenerNet 1km-scale sub-daily rainfall data and their application: a hydrological modeling study on the sensitivity of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Sungmin; Hohmann, Clara; Foelsche, Ulrich; Fuchsberger, Jürgen; Rieger, Wolfgang; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2017-04-01

WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN), a pioneering experiment for weather and climate observations, has recently completed its first 10-year precipitation measurement cycle. The WEGN has measured precipitation, temperature, humidity, and other parameters since the beginning of 2007, supporting local-level monitoring and modeling studies, over an area of about 20 km x 15 km centered near the City of Feldbach (46.93 ˚ N, 15.90 ˚ E) in the Alpine forelands of southeast Austria. All the 151 stations in the network are now equipped with high-quality Meteoservis sensors as of August 2016, following an equipment with Friedrichs sensors at most stations before, and continue to provide high-resolution (2 km2/5-min) gauge based precipitation measurements for interested users in hydro-meteorological communities. Here we will present overall characteristics of the WEGN, with a focus on sub-daily precipitation measurements, from the data processing (data quality control, gridded data products generation, etc.) to data applications (e.g., ground validation of satellite estimates). The latter includes our recent study on the propagation of uncertainty from rainfall to runoff. The study assesses responses of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability in the WEGN region over the Raab valley, using a physics-based distributed hydrological model; Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), developed at ETH Zurich (Schulla, ETH Zurich, 1997). Given that uncertainty due to resolution of rainfall measurements is believed to be a significant source of error in hydrologic modeling especially for convective rainfall that dominates in the region during summer, the high-resolution of WEGN data furnishes a great opportunity to analyze effects of rainfall events on the runoff at different spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the assessment can be conducted not only for the lower Raab catchment (area of about 500 km2) but also for its sub-catchments (areas of about 30-70 km2). Beside the question how many stations are necessary for reliable hydrological modeling, different interpolation methods like Inverse Distance Interpolation, Elevation Dependent Regression, and combinations will be tested. This presentation will show the first results from a scale-depending analysis of spatial and temporal structures of heavy rainfall events and responses of simulated runoff at the event scale in the WEGN region.

Evaluating a slope-stability model for shallow rain-induced landslides using gage and satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yatheendradas, S.; Kirschbaum, D.; Baum, Rex L.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2014-01-01

Improving prediction of landslide early warning systems requires accurate estimation of the conditions that trigger slope failures. This study tested a slope-stability model for shallow rainfall-induced landslides by utilizing rainfall information from gauge and satellite records. We used the TRIGRS model (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis) for simulating the evolution of the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Using a spatial subset of a well-characterized digital landscape from an earlier study, we considered shallow failure on a slope adjoining an urban transportation roadway near the Seattle area in Washington, USA.We ran the TRIGRS model using high-quality rain gage and satellite-based rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results with parameterized soil depth values suggest that the steeper slope values in this spatial domain have factor of safety values that are extremely close to the failure limit within an extremely narrow range of values, providing multiple false alarms. When the soil depths were constrained using a back analysis procedure to ensure that slopes were stable under initial condtions, the model accurately predicted the timing and location of the landslide observation without false alarms over time for gage rain data. The TRMM satellite rainfall data did not show adequately retreived rainfall peak magnitudes and accumulation over the study period, and as a result failed to predict the landslide event. These preliminary results indicate that more accurate and higher-resolution rain data (e.g., the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission) are required to provide accurate and reliable landslide predictions in ungaged basins.

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

2016-09-01

The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

2016-05-01

Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

TRMM- and GPM-based precipitation analysis and modelling in the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manz, Bastian; Buytaert, Wouter; Zulkafli, Zed; Onof, Christian

2016-04-01

Despite wide-spread applications of satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) throughout the TRMM-era, the scarcity of ground-based in-situ data (high density gauge networks, rainfall radar) in many hydro-meteorologically important regions, such as tropical mountain environments, has limited our ability to evaluate both SPPs and individual satellite-based sensors as well as accurately model or merge rainfall at high spatial resolutions, particularly with respect to extremes. This has restricted both the understanding of sensor behaviour and performance controls in such regions as well as the accuracy of precipitation estimates and respective hydrological applications ranging from water resources management to early warning systems. Here we report on our recent research into precipitation analysis and modelling using various TRMM and GPM products (2A25, 3B42 and IMERG) in the tropical Andes. In an initial study, 78 high-frequency (10-min) recording gauges in Colombia and Ecuador are used to generate a ground-based validation dataset for evaluation of instantaneous TRMM Precipitation Radar (TPR) overpasses from the 2A25 product. Detection ability, precipitation time-series, empirical distributions and statistical moments are evaluated with respect to regional climatological differences, seasonal behaviour, rainfall types and detection thresholds. Results confirmed previous findings from extra-tropical regions of over-estimation of low rainfall intensities and under-estimation of the highest 10% of rainfall intensities by the TPR. However, in spite of evident regionalised performance differences as a function of local climatological regimes, the TPR provides an accurate estimate of climatological annual and seasonal rainfall means. On this basis, high-resolution (5 km) climatological maps are derived for the entire tropical Andes. The second objective of this work is to improve the local precipitation estimation accuracy and representation of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall probabilities over the region. For this purpose, an ensemble of high-resolution rainfall fields is generated by stochastic simulation using space-time averaged, coarse-scale (daily, 0.25°) satellite-based rainfall inputs (TRMM 3B42/ -RT) and the high-resolution climatological information derived from the TPR as spatial disaggregation proxies. For evaluation and merging, gridded ground-based rainfall fields are generated from gauge data using sequential simulation. Satellite and ground-based ensembles are subsequently merged using an inverse error weighting scheme. The model was tested over a case study in the Colombian Andes with optional coarse-scale bias correction prior to disaggregation and merging. The resulting outputs were assessed in the context of Generalized Extreme Value theory and showed improved estimation of extreme rainfall probabilities compared to the original TMPA inputs. Initial findings using GPM-IMERG inputs are also presented.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

Deciphering the expression of climate change within the Lower Colorado River basin by stochastic simulation of convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliss Singer, Michael; Michaelides, Katerina

2017-10-01

In drylands, convective rainstorms typically control runoff, streamflow, water supply and flood risk to human populations, and ecological water availability at multiple spatial scales. Since drainage basin water balance is sensitive to climate, it is important to improve characterization of convective rainstorms in a manner that enables statistical assessment of rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution, and the prediction of plausible manifestations of climate change. Here we present a simple rainstorm generator, STORM, for convective storm simulation. It was created using data from a rain gauge network in one dryland drainage basin, but is applicable anywhere. We employ STORM to assess watershed rainfall under climate change simulations that reflect differences in wetness/storminess, and thus provide insight into observed or projected regional hydrologic trends. Our analysis documents historical, regional climate change manifesting as a multidecadal decline in rainfall intensity, which we suggest has negatively impacted ephemeral runoff in the Lower Colorado River basin, but has not contributed substantially to regional negative streamflow trends.

Potential sensitivity of warm season precipitation to urbanization extents: Modeling study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei

2015-09-01

In this study, we investigated how different degrees of urbanization affect local and regional rainfall using high-resolution simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The extreme rainfall event of 21 July 2012 in Beijing was simulated for three representative urban land use distributions (no urbanization, early urbanization level of 1980, and recent urbanization level of 2009). Results suggest that urban modification of rainfall is potentially sensitive to urban land use condition. Rainfall was increased significantly over the downwind Beijing metropolis because of the effects of early urbanization; however, recent conditions of high urban development caused no significant increase. Further comparative analysis revealed that positive urban thermodynamical effects (i.e., urban warming, increased sensible heat transportation, and enhanced convergence and vertical motions) play major roles in urban modification of rainfall during the early urbanization stage. However, after cities expand to a certain extent (i.e., urban agglomeration), the regional moisture depression induced by the prevalence of impervious urban land has an effect on atmospheric instability energy, which might negate the city's positive impact on regional rainfall. Additional results from regional climate simulations for 10 Julys confirm this supposition. Given the explosive urban population growth and increasing demand for freshwater in cities, the potential negative effects of the urban environment on precipitation are worth investigation, particularly in rapidly developing countries and regions.

A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994. Part 2; Mesoscale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei Kuo; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, W. K.-M.

2001-01-01

Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Set-up and calibration of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassu, T.; Seeger, M.

2012-04-01

Rainfall simulation is one of the most prevalent methods used in soil erosion studies on agricultural land. In-situ simulators have been used to relate soil surface characteristics and management to runoff generation, infiltration and erosion, eg. the influence of different cultivation systems, and to parameterise erosion models. Laboratory rainfall simulators have been used to determine the impact of the soil surface characteristics such as micro-topography, surface roughness, and soil chemistry on infiltration and erosion rates, and to elucidate the processes involved. The purpose of the following study is to demonstrate the set-up and the calibration of a large indoor, nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) for soil erosion, surface runoff and rill development studies. This RS is part of the Kraijenhoff van de Leur Laboratory for Water and Sediment Dynamics in Wageningen University. The rainfall simulator consists from a 6 m long and 2,5 m wide plot, with metal lateral frame and one open side. Infiltration can be collected in different segments. The plot can be inclined up to 15.5° slope. From 3,85 m height above the plot 2 Lechler nozzles 460.788 are sprinkling the water onto the surface with constant intensity. A Zehnder HMP 450 pump provides the constant water supply. An automatic pressure switch on the pump keeps the pressure constant during the experiments. The flow rate is controlled for each nozzle by independent valves. Additionally, solenoid valves are mounted at each nozzle to interrupt water flow. The flow is monitored for each nozzle with flow meters and can be recorded within the computer network. For calibration of the RS we measured the rainfall distribution with 60 gauges equally distributed over the plot during 15 minutes for each nozzle independently and for a combination of 2 identical nozzles. The rainfall energy was recorded on the same grid by measuring drop size distribution and fall velocity with a laser disdrometer. We applied 2 different flow rates (4,5 l/min and 5,5 l/min), resulting in different rainfall intensities and made 2 repetitions each. The average rainfall intensity was 36,8 mm/h at the first and 37,6 mm/h at the second repetition with the lower flow rate (4,5 l/min). With the higher flow rate (5,5 l/min) at the first repetition it was 44,4 mm/h and 46 mm/h at the second one. The maximum and minimum values were 22 mm and 2 mm at the lower (4,5 l/min) flow rate, respectively 26 mm and 4 mm at the higher one (5,5 l/min). In this latter case, the resulting average kinetic energy reached 7 J m-2 mm-1, with a maximum 31,3 J m-2 mm-1 of and a minimum of 2,9 J m-2 mm-1. The Christiansen Uniformity coefficient (CU) for the lower intensities was 66% and 69%, respectively, with the higher intensities slightly better (70% and 72%). The data of the rainfall simulator in Wageningen make it a promising tool for research in soil erosion processes.

Some analysis on the diurnal variation of rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gill, T.; Perng, S.; Hughes, A.

1981-01-01

Data collected from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was examined. The data were collected from 10,000 grid points arranged as a 100 x 100 array; each grid covered a 4 square km area. The amount of rainfall was measured every 15 minutes during the experiment periods using c-band radars. Two types of analyses were performed on the data: analysis of diurnal variation was done on each of grid points based on the rainfall averages at noon and at midnight, and time series analysis on selected grid points based on the hourly averages of rainfall. Since there are no known distribution model which best describes the rainfall amount, nonparametric methods were used to examine the diurnal variation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test if the rainfalls at noon and at midnight have the same statistical distribution. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to test if the noon rainfall is heavier than, equal to, or lighter than the midnight rainfall. These tests were done on each of the 10,000 grid points at which the data are available.

Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

2018-03-01

The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

Rainfall-induced release of microbes from manure: model development, parameter estimation, and uncertainty evaluation on small plots

EPA Science Inventory

A series of simulated rainfall run-off experiments with applications of different manure types (cattle solid pats, poultry dry litter, swine slurry) was conducted across four seasons on a field containing 36 plots (0.75 × 2 m each), resulting in 144 rainfall run-off events....

Depth-dependent inactivation of Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis in soil after manure application and simulated rainfall

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

E.coli and Enterococcus serve as important water quality indicator organisms. Rainfall action on manured fields and pastures releases these organisms into soil with infiltrating water. They can then be released back to runoff during subsequent rainfall or irrigation events as soil solution interacts...

Runoff and erosion response of simulated waste burial covers in a semi-arid environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, G.C.; Goff, B.F.; Rightmire, K.G.; Sidle, R.C.

1999-01-01

Control of runoff (reducing infiltration) and erosion at shallow land burials is necessary in order to assure environmentally safe disposal of low-level radioactive-waste and other waste products. This study evaluated the runoff and erosion response of two perennial grass species on simulated waste burial covers at Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Rainfall simulations were applied to three plots covered by crested wheatgrass [Agropyron desertorum (Fischer ex Link) Shultes], three plots covered by streambank wheatgrass [Elymus lanceolatus (Scribner and Smith) Gould spp. lanceolatus], and one bare plot. Average total runoff for rainfall simulations in 1987, 1989, and 1990 was 42 percent greater on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Average total soil loss for rainfall simulations in 1987 and 1990 was 105 percent greater on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Total runoff and soil loss from natural rainfall and snowmelt events during 1987 were 25 and 105 percent greater, respectively, on streambank wheatgrass plots than on crested wheatgrass plots. Thus, crested wheatgrass appears to be better suited in revegetation of waste burial covers at INEEL than streambank wheatgrass due to its much lower erosion rate and only slightly higher infiltration rate (lower runoff rate).

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Process-based rainfall interception by small trees in Northern China: The effect of rainfall traits and crown structure characteristics

Treesearch

Xiang Li; Qingfu Xiao; Jianzhi Niu; Salli Dymond; Natalie S. van Doorn; Xinxiao Yu; Baoyuan Xie; Xizhi Lv; Kebin Zhang; Jiao Li

2016-01-01

Rainfall interception by a tree's crown is one of the most important hydrological processes in an ecosystem, yet the mechanisms of interception are not well understood. A process-based experiment was conducted under five simulated rainfall intensities (from 10 to 150 mm h−1) to directly quantify tree crown interception and examine the effect...

Impact of climate, vegetation, soil and crop management variables on multi-year ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration over a Mediterranean crop site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Carrer, D.; Decharme, B.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Moulin, S.; Marloie, O.

2015-10-01

Generic land surface models are generally driven by large-scale data sets to describe the climate, the soil properties, the vegetation dynamic and the cropland management (irrigation). This paper investigates the uncertainties in these drivers and their impacts on the evapotranspiration (ET) simulated from the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA-A-gs) land surface model over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. We evaluate the forcing data sets used in the standard implementation of ISBA over France where the model is driven by the SAFRAN (Système d'Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptés à la Nivologie) high spatial resolution atmospheric reanalysis, the leaf area index (LAI) time courses derived from the ECOCLIMAP-II land surface parameter database and the soil texture derived from the French soil database. For climate, we focus on the radiations and rainfall variables and we test additional data sets which include the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) low spatial resolution reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data set (GPCC) and the MeteoSat Second Generation (MSG) satellite estimate of downwelling shortwave radiations. The evaluation of the drivers indicates very low bias in daily downwelling shortwave radiation for ERA-I (2.5 W m-2) compared to the negative biases found for SAFRAN (-10 W m-2) and the MSG satellite (-12 W m-2). Both SAFRAN and ERA-I underestimate downwelling longwave radiations by -12 and -16 W m-2, respectively. The SAFRAN and ERA-I/GPCC rainfall are slightly biased at daily and longer timescales (1 and 0.5 % of the mean rainfall measurement). The SAFRAN rainfall is more precise than the ERA-I/GPCC estimate which shows larger inter-annual variability in yearly rainfall error (up to 100 mm). The ECOCLIMAP-II LAI climatology does not properly resolve Mediterranean crop phenology and underestimates the bare soil period which leads to an overall overestimation of LAI over the crop succession. The simulation of irrigation by the model provides an accurate irrigation amount over the crop cycle but the timing of irrigation occurrences is frequently unrealistic. Errors in the soil hydrodynamic parameters and the lack of irrigation in the simulation have the largest influence on ET compared to uncertainties in the large-scale climate reanalysis and the LAI climatology. Among climate variables, the errors in yearly ET are mainly related to the errors in yearly rainfall. The underestimation of the available water capacity and the soil hydraulic diffusivity induce a large underestimation of ET over 12 years. The underestimation of radiations by the reanalyses and the absence of irrigation in the simulation lead to the underestimation of ET while the overall overestimation of LAI by the ECOCLIMAP-II climatology induces an overestimation of ET over 12 years. This work shows that the key challenges to monitor the water balance of cropland at regional scale concern the representation of the spatial distribution of the soil hydrodynamic parameters, the variability of the irrigation practices, the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of vegetation and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall.

Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

2018-01-01

Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

Rainfall Across the Globe: Precipitation. The Role of Landmass in Monsoon Development. The Relationship Between Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature on Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston; Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Pegion, Philip

2000-01-01

The numerical simulation of precipitation helps scientists understand the complex mechanisms that determine how and why rainfall is distributed across the globe. Simulation aids in the development of forecastin,g efforts that inform policies regarding the management of water resources. Precipitation modeling also provides short-term warnings, for emergencies such as flash floods and mudslides. Just as precipitation modeling can warn of an impending abundance of rainfall, it can help anticipate the absence of rainfall in drought. What constitutes a drought? A meteorological drought simply means that an area is getting a significantly lower amount of rain than usual over a prolonged period of time and an agricultural drought is based on the level of soil moisture.

The potential for remote sensing and hydrologic modelling to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of ponds in the Ferlo Region (Senegal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soti, V.; Puech, C.; Lo Seen, D.; Bertran, A.; Vignolles, C.; Mondet, B.; Dessay, N.; Tran, A.

2010-08-01

In the Ferlo Region in Senegal, livestock depend on temporary ponds for water but are exposed to the Rift Valley Fever (RVF), a disease transmitted to herds by mosquitoes which develop in these ponds. Mosquito abundance is related to the emptying and filling phases of the ponds, and in order to study the epidemiology of RVF, pond modelling is required. In the context of a data scarce region, a simple hydrologic model which makes use of remote sensing data was developed to simulate pond water dynamics from daily rainfall. Two sets of ponds were considered: those located in the main stream of the Ferlo Valley whose hydrological dynamics are essentially due to runoff, and the ponds located outside, which are smaller and whose filling mechanisms are mainly due to direct rainfall. Separate calibrations and validations were made for each set of ponds. Calibration was performed from daily field data (rainfall, water level) collected during the 2001 and 2002 rainy seasons and from three different sources of remote sensing data: 1) very high spatial resolution optical satellite images to access pond location and surface area at given dates, 2) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to estimate pond catchment area and 3) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for rainfall estimates. The model was applied to all ponds of the study area, the results were validated and a sensitivity analysis was performed. Water height simulations using gauge rainfall as input were compared to water level measurements from four ponds and Nash coefficients >0.7 were obtained. Comparison with simulations using TRMM rainfall data gave mixed results, with poor water height simulations for the year 2001 and good estimations for the year 2002. A pond map derived from a Quickbird satellite image was used to assess model accuracy for simulating pond water areas for all the ponds of the study area. The validation showed that modelled water areas were mostly underestimated but significantly correlated, particularly for the larger ponds. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that parameters relative to pond shape and catchment area estimation have less effects on model simulation than parameters relative to soil properties (rainfall threshold causing runoff in dry soils and the coefficient expressing soil moisture decrease with time) or the water loss coefficient. Overall, our results demonstrate the possibility of using a simple hydrologic model with remote sensing data to track pond water heights and water areas in a homogeneous arid area.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

2017-09-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

Aerosol and Urban Land Use Effect on Rainfall Around Cities in Indo-Gangetic Basin From Observations and Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarangi, Chandan; Tripathi, S. N.; Qian, Yun; Kumar, Shailendra; Ruby Leung, L.

2018-04-01

Coupling of urban land use land cover (LULC) and aerosol loading on rainfall around cities in the Gangetic Basin (GB) is examined here. Long-term observations illustrate more rainfall at urban core and climatological downwind regions compared to the upwind regions of Kanpur, a metropolitan area located in central GB. In addition, analysis of a 15 day cloud resolving simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model also illustrated similar rainfall pattern around other major cities in the GB. Interestingly, the enhancement of downwind rainfall was greater than that over urban regions, and it was positively associated with both the urban area of the city and ambient aerosol loading during the propagating storm. Further, to gain a process-level understanding, a typical storm that propagated northwestward across Kanpur was simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting under three different scenarios. Case 1 has realistic LULC representation of Kanpur, while the grids representing the Kanpur urban region were replaced by cropland LULC pattern in Case 2. Comparison illustrated that urban heat island effect caused convergence of winds and moisture in the lower troposphere, which enhances convection over urban region and induced more rainfall over the urban core compared to upwind regions. Case 3 is similar to Case 1 but lower aerosol concentration (by a factor of 100) over the storm region. Analysis shows that aerosol-induced microphysical changes delay the initiation of warm rain (over the upwind region) but enhance ice phase particle formation in latter stages (over the urban and downwind regions) resulting in increase in downwind rainfall.

Impacts of Farmers' Knowledge Increase on Farm Profit and Watershed Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, D.; Bennett, D. A.

2013-12-01

This study explores the impact that an increase in real-time data might have on farmers' nitrogen management, on-farm profit, and watershed water quality in the Midwestern US. In this study, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate farmers' decisions about nitrogen application rate and timing in corn fields. SWAT (soil-water assessment tool) is used to generate a database that characterizes the response of corn yields to nitrogen fertilizer application and the dynamics of nitrogen loss under different scenarios of rainfall events. The database simulates a scenario where farmers would receive real-time feedback about the fate and impact of nitrogen applied to their fields from in-situ sensors. The ability to transform these data into optimal actions is simulated at multiple levels for farmer agents. In a baseline scenario, the farmer agent is only aware of the yield potential of the land field and single values of N rates for achieving the yield potential and is not aware of N loss from farm fields. Knowledge increase is represented by greater accuracy in predicting rainfall events, and the increase of the number of discrete points in a field-specific quadratic curve that captures crop yield response to various levels of nitrogen perceived by farmer agents. In addition, agents perceive N loss from farm fields at increased temporal resolutions. Correspondingly, agents make adjustments to the rate of N application for crops and the timing of fertilizer application given the rainfall events predictions. Farmers' decisions simulated by the ABM are input into SWAT to model nitrogen concentration in impacted streams. Farm profit statistics and watershed-level nitrogen loads are compared among different scenarios of knowledge increase. The hypothesis that the increase of farmers' knowledge benefits both farm profits and watershed water quality is tested through the comparison.

Simulated management effects on ammonia emissions from field applied manure.

PubMed

Smith, E; Gordon, R; Bourque, C; Campbell, A; Génermont, S; Rochette, P; Mkhabela, M

2009-06-01

A need exists to improve the utilization of manure nutrients by minimizing NH(3) emissions from land application of manure. Management strategies to reduce NH(3) emissions are available; however, few have been validated under Canadian conditions. A well tested and accurate simulation model, however, can help overcome this challenge by determining appropriate management strategies for a given set of field conditions. The Volt'Air simulation model was utilized to estimate NH(3) volatilization from manure spreading for various manure spreading considerations under a range of atmospheric conditions typically encountered in eastern Canada. Considerations included: (i) soil liming, (ii) time of day of manure spreading, (iii) rainfall (timing and amount) and (iv) manure incorporation (timing, depth and manure coverage). Results demonstrated that liming to increase soil pH, increased NH(3) emissions by 3.3 kg ha(-1) for each increment of 0.1 pH (up to a 1.5 total increase), over no liming at 34.6 kg ha(-1). For each hour delay in manure spreading past 0800 h, NH(3) losses were reduced by 1.5 kg ha(-1). Rainfall (10mm) at least 20 h after manure application reduced losses, with increased reductions at higher rainfall amounts. Incorporation soon (1h) after application was best for NH(3) mitigation. Increasing the depth of incorporation by 5c m reduced NH(3) emissions by 4.4 kg ha(-1); also increasing manure coverage by incorporation reduced losses by 2 kg ha(-1) for each 10% increase in coverage, compared to surface application at 34.6 kg ha(-1). This investigation using Volt'Air yielded valuable information about simulating manure management strategies and the magnitude of their effects on NH(3) emissions.

Numerical simulation of failure behavior of granular debris flows based on flume model tests.

PubMed

Zhou, Jian; Li, Ye-xun; Jia, Min-cai; Li, Cui-na

2013-01-01

In this study, the failure behaviors of debris flows were studied by flume model tests with artificial rainfall and numerical simulations (PFC(3D)). Model tests revealed that grain sizes distribution had profound effects on failure mode, and the failure in slope of medium sand started with cracks at crest and took the form of retrogressive toe sliding failure. With the increase of fine particles in soil, the failure mode of the slopes changed to fluidized flow. The discrete element method PFC(3D) can overcome the hypothesis of the traditional continuous medium mechanic and consider the simple characteristics of particle. Thus, a numerical simulations model considering liquid-solid coupled method has been developed to simulate the debris flow. Comparing the experimental results, the numerical simulation result indicated that the failure mode of the failure of medium sand slope was retrogressive toe sliding, and the failure of fine sand slope was fluidized sliding. The simulation result is consistent with the model test and theoretical analysis, and grain sizes distribution caused different failure behavior of granular debris flows. This research should be a guide to explore the theory of debris flow and to improve the prevention and reduction of debris flow.

Rainfall continuous time stochastic simulation for a wet climate in the Cantabric Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebole, Juan P.; Lopez, Jose J.; Garcia-Guzman, Adela

2010-05-01

Rain is the result of a series of complex atmospheric processes which are influenced by numerous factors. This complexity makes its simulation practically unfeasible from a physical basis, advising the use of stochastic diagrams. These diagrams, which are based on observed characteristics (Todorovic and Woolhiser, 1975), allow the introduction of renewal alternating processes, that account for the occurrence of rainfall at different time lapses (Markov chains are a particular case, where lapses can be described by exponential distributions). Thus, a sequential rainfall process can be defined as a temporal series in which rainfall events (periods in which rainfall is recorded) alternate with non rain events (periods in which no rainfall is recorded). The variables of a temporal rain sequence have been characterized (duration of the rainfall event, duration of the non rainfall event, average intensity of the rain in the rain event, and a temporal distribution of the amount of rain in the rain event) in a wet climate such as that of the coastal area of Guipúzcoa. The study has been performed from two series recorded at the meteorological stations of Igueldo-San Sebastián and Fuenterrabia / Airport (data every ten minutes and for its hourly aggregation). As a result of this work, the variables satisfactorily fitted the following distribution functions: the duration of the rain event to a exponential function; the duration of the dry event to a truncated exponential mixed distribution; the average intensity to a Weibull distribution; and the distribution of the rain fallen to the Beta distribution. The characterization was made for an hourly aggregation of the recorded interval of ten minutes. The parameters of the fitting functions were better obtained by means of the maximum likelihood method than the moment method. The parameters obtained from the characterization were used to develop a stochastic rainfall process simulation model by means of a three states Markov chain (Hutchinson, 1990), performed in an hourly basis by García-Guzmán (1993) and Castro et al. (1997, 2005 ). Simulation process results were valid in the hourly case for all the four described variables, with a slightly better response in Fuenterrabia than in Igueldo. In summary, all the variables were better simulated in Fuenterrabia than in Igueldo. Fuenterrabia data series is shorter and with longer sequences without missing data, compared to Igueldo. The latter shows higher number of missing data events, whereas its mean duration is longer in Fuenterrabia.

Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, Caroline M.; Allan, Richard P.; Black, Emily

2017-11-01

An objective technique for analysing seasonality, in terms of regime, progression and timing of the wet seasons, is applied in the evaluation of CMIP5 simulations across continental Africa. Atmosphere-only and coupled integrations capture the gross observed patterns of seasonal progression and give mean onset/cessation dates within 18 days of the observational dates for 11 of the 13 regions considered. Accurate representation of seasonality over central-southern Africa and West Africa (excluding the southern coastline) adds credence for future projected changes in seasonality here. However, coupled simulations exhibit timing biases over the Horn of Africa, with the long rains 20 days late on average. Although both sets of simulations detect biannual rainfall seasonal cycles for East and Central Africa, coupled simulations fail to capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline. This is linked with errors in the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperature (SST) and deficient representation of the SST/rainfall relationship.

Erosion measurements at various scales in a semi arid mountainous catchment - case of the Rheraya watershed, High Atlas, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheggour, A.; Simonneaux, V.; Roose, E.

2009-04-01

Erosion is a critical phenomenon in North Africa, under the combined effects of aggressive rainfall and soil fragility, increased by the grazing pressure on rangelands. However measurements of actual erosion rates are rare, especially in mountainous areas. Siltation of dams is estimated at more than 60 million m3 annually in Morocco, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.5% of the storage capacity. The Rheraya watershed (225 km2) is located in a semi-arid climat, in the High Atlas of Morocco. In order to assess erosion processes at various scales, three types of measurements were achieved on this area, namely rainfall simulation tests one square meter, erosion plots on 150 m2, and catchment's discharge and associated sediments measurements. Rainfall simulation experiments were achieved on 27 sites, measuring runoff and sediment charge. The turbidity was correctly measured thanks to the development of a new runoff collector which doesn't disturb the soil. In the scope of spatial extrapolation, we searched for indicators obtained from ground description variables and/or by laboratory tests on soil samples, which were well correlated with infiltration and turbidity of the simulations. For the various soils present in the study area, the results show a large variability of infiltration (from 1 to 70 mm h-1) and turbidity (from 3 to 325 g.l-1). Analysis showed that infiltration is correlated mainly with texture and soil surface opening, and that turbidity is related to the surface of bare soil exposed to runoff. Six erosion plots of about 150 m2, located on various soil and land cover conditions, were measured during four years. The observations showed very rare runoff events in the main part of the watershed, producing a low sediment load (between 0.015 and 2.5 t.ha1.year1). Conversely, runoff was much more frequent on silty badlands, producing about 95% of the watershed sediment (350 t.ha-1.year-1) despite their area was only 1% of the watershed. There was a significant linear relation between simulation turbidity and erosion plot turbidity. However, there was a great difference between infiltration estimates from the two types of measurements. Plot infiltrations estimates were only between 3 and 5 mm/h, but they were significantly correlated to the one from test, through an exponential relation. Finally, an estimate of the overall erosion at catchment's scale was achieved from plots values extrapolated using a soil map, and gave about 3 to 4 t.ha-1.year-1. A good correlation was found between this watershed scale estimate and the catchment's exportation, indirectly validating the significance of both measurements. Moreover, both estimates were about the same, showing a sediment delivery ratio around one. Keywords: erosion, rainfall simulation, erosion plot, sediment exportation

Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun; Peng, Dongdong

2016-02-01

The FROALS (flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system) model, a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model, has been applied to the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain. Driven by historical simulations from a global climate system model, dynamical downscaling for the period from 1980 to 2005 has been conducted at a uniform horizontal resolution of 50 km. The impacts of regional air-sea couplings on the simulations of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall have been investigated, and comparisons have been made to corresponding simulations performed using a stand-alone regional climate model (RCM). The added value of the FROALS model with respect to the driving global climate model was evident in terms of both climatology and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over East China by the contributions of both the high horizontal resolution and the reasonably simulated convergence of the moisture fluxes. Compared with the stand-alone RCM simulations, the spatial pattern of the simulated low-level monsoon flow over East Asia and the western North Pacific was improved in the FROALS model due to its inclusion of regional air-sea coupling. The results indicated that the simulated sea surface temperature (SSTs) resulting from the regional air-sea coupling were lower than those derived directly from the driving global model over the western North Pacific north of 15°N. These colder SSTs had both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, they strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high, which improved the simulation of the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. On the other hand, the colder SSTs suppressed surface evaporation and favored weaker local interannual variability in the SST, which led to less summer rainfall and weaker interannual rainfall variability over the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Overall, the reference simulation performed using the FROALS model is reasonable in terms of rainfall over the land area of East Asia and will become the basis for the generation of climate change scenarios for the CORDEX East Asia domain that will be described in future reports.

Simulation of different types of ENSO impacts on South Asian Monsoon in CCSM4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Siraj ul; Tang, Youmin

2017-02-01

It has been found in observation that there are different types of influences of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the South Asian Monsoon (SAM). A correct description and representation of these teleconnections is critical for climate models to simulate and predict SAM. In this study, we examine these teleconnections in NCAR CAM4 and CCSM4 models, including the strength and weakness of these models in preserving different types of ENSO-SAM relationships. By using observational and simulation dataset, the composite analysis, based on specific selection criteria, is performed for both SAM rainfall and the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Anomalous SAM rainfall is characterized in three different types i.e. the indirect influence of the SST anomalies of preceding winter (DJF-only), direct influence of the SST anomalies of concurrent summer (JJAS-only) and the combined influence of both preceding winter and concurrent summer (DJF&JJAS). The analysis reveals that CAM4 uncoupled simulation can reasonably well reproduce the anomalous SAM rainfall in DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types whereas the model fails to simulate the anomalous rainfall in the JJAS-only type. The better performance of CAM4, particularly in DJF&JJAS type, comes from its realistic simulation of moisture content and thermal contrast. Its failure to preserve the ENSO-SAM relationship of JJAS-only type is due to the absence of ENSO induced warming in Northern Indian Ocean via atmospheric circulation which is indirectly linked to the lack of air-sea coupling. The role of Indian Ocean in controlling the ENSO-SAM teleconnections of the DJF&JJAS type is further investigated using CAM4 sensitivity experiments. It is found that in absence of Indian Ocean SST, the anomalous SAM summer rainfall suppresses in the DJF&JJAS type, suggesting the important modulation by Indian Ocean SST probably through the preceding winter equatorial Pacific SST forcing and the atmospheric circulations. On the other hand, CCSM4 shows large systematical errors in DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types and reproduce weak anomalous SAM rainfall. The failure of CCSM4 in simulating DJF-only and DJF&JJAS types is found mainly due to the errors in its SST simulation. The JJAS-only type is better reproduced in the CCSM4 simulation as compared to CAM4 and observation composites. Strong convergence over the SAM region which intensifies the anomalous SAM is seen to be responsible for its better simulation in this type. It is found that the atmospheric circulations in CCSM4 contribute more than the thermal contrast in modulating the intensity of anomalous rainfall in JJAS-only type. This study suggests that, although air-sea coupling is important for better SAM simulation and its relationship with ENSO, the SST bias in coupled model can significantly degrade ENSO-SAM relationship.

A Stand-Alone Demography and Landscape Structure Module for Earth System Models: Integration with Inventory Data from Temperate and Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, L.; Basso, B.; Hinckley, E. L. S.; Robertson, G. P.; Matson, P. A.

2014-12-01

In the coming century, the proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy storm events is expected to increase in many areas, especially in the US Midwest, a major agricultural region. These changes in rainfall patterns may have consequences for hydrologic flow and nutrient losses, especially in agricultural soils, with potentially negative consequences for receiving ground- and surface waters. We used a tracer experiment to examine how more extreme rainfall patterns may affect the movement of water and solutes through an agricultural soil profile in the upper Midwest, and to what extent tillage may moderate these effects. Two rainfall patterns were created with 5m x 5m rainout shelters at the Kellogg Biological Station LTER site in replicated plots with either conventional tillage or no-till management. Control rainfall treatments received water 3x per week, and extreme rainfall treatments received the same total amount of water but once every two weeks, to simulate less frequent but larger storms. In April 2015, potassium bromide (KBr) was added as a conservative tracer of water flow to all plots, and Br- concentrations in soil water at 1.2m depth were measured weekly from April through July. Soil water Br- concentrations increased and peaked more quickly under the extreme rainfall treatment, suggesting increased infiltration and solute transfer to depth compared to soils exposed to control rainfall patterns. Soil water Br- also increased and peaked more quickly in no-till than in conventional tillage treatments, indicating differences in flow paths between management systems. Soil moisture measured every 15 minutes at 10, 40, and 100cm depths corroborates tracer experiment results: rainfall events simulated in extreme rainfall treatments led to large increases in deep soil moisture, while the smaller rainfall events simulated under control conditions did not. Deep soil moisture in no-till treatments also increased sooner after water application as compared to in conventional soils. Our results suggest that exposure to more extreme rainfall patterns will likely increase infiltration depth and nutrient losses in agricultural soils. In particular, soils under no-till management, which leads to development of preferential flow paths, may be particularly vulnerable to vertical nutrient losses.

On the wind-induced undercatch in rainfall measurement using CFD-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca

2016-04-01

The reliability of liquid atmospheric precipitation measurements is a basic requirement since rainfall data represent the fundamental input variables of many scientific applications (hydrologic models, weather forecasting data assimilation, climate change studies, calibration of weather radar, etc.). The scientific community and the National Meteorological Services worldwide are facing the issue of improving the accuracy of precipitation measurements, with an increased focus on retrieving the information at a high temporal resolution. The rainfall intensity is indeed fundamental information for the precise quantification of the markedly time-varying behavior of precipitation events. Environmental conditions have a relevant impact on the rain collection/sensing efficiency. Among other effects, wind is recognized as a major source of underestimation since it reduces the collection efficiency of the catching-type gauges (Nespor and Sevruk, 1999), the most common type of instruments used worldwide in the national observation networks. The collection efficiency is usually obtained by comparing the rainfall amounts measured by the gauge with the reference, which was defined by EN-13798 standard (CEN, 2002) as a gauge placed below the ground level inside a pit. A lot of scatter can be observed for a given wind speed, which is mainly caused by comparability issues among the tested gauges. An additional source of uncertainty is the drops size distribution (DSD) of the rain, which varies on an event-by-event basis. The goal of this study is to understand the role of the physical characteristics of precipitation particles on the wind-induced rainfall underestimation observed for catching-type gauges. To address this issue, a detailed analysis of the flow field in the vicinity of the gauge is conducted using time-averaged computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations (Colli et al., 2015). Using a Lagrangian model, which accounts for the hydrodynamic behavior of liquid particles in the atmosphere, droplets trajectories are calculated to obtain the collection efficiency associated with different drop size distribution and varying the wind speed. The main benefit of investigating this error by means of CFD simulations is the possibility to single out the prevailing environmental factors from the instrumental performance of the gauges under analysis. The preliminary analysis shows the variations in the catch efficiency due to the horizontal wind speeds and the DSD. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of the environmental sources of uncertainty in rainfall measurements. References: Colli, M., R. Rasmussen, J. M. Theriault, L. G. Lanza, C. B. Baker & J. Kochendorfer (2015) An Improved Trajectory Model to Evaluate the Collection Performance of Snow Gauges. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, 1826-1836 Nespor, V. and Sevruk, B. (1999). Estimation of wind-induced error of rainfall gauge measurements using a numerical simulation. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech, 16(4), 450-464. CEN (2002). EN 13798:2002 Hydrometry - Specification for a reference raingauge pit. European Committee for Standardization.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

Effects of episodic rainfall on a subterranean estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiayang; Xin, Pei; Lu, Chunhui; Robinson, Clare; Li, Ling; Barry, D. A.

2017-07-01

Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the effect of episodic rainfall on nearshore groundwater dynamics in a tidally influenced unconfined coastal aquifer, with a focus on both long-term (yearly) and short-term (daily) behavior of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and seawater intrusion (SWI). The results showed nonlinear interactions among the processes driven by rainfall, tides, and density gradients. Rainfall-induced infiltration increased the yearly averaged fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean but reduced the extents of the saltwater wedge and upper saline plume as well as the total rate of seawater circulation through both zones. Overall, the net effect of the interactions led to an increase of the SGD. The nearshore groundwater responded to individual rainfall events in a delayed and cumulative fashion, as evident in the variations of daily averaged SGD and salt stored in the saltwater wedge (quantifying the extent of SWI). A generalized linear model (GLM) along with a Gamma distribution function was developed to describe the delayed and prolonged effect of rainfall events on short-term groundwater behavior. This model validated with results of daily averaged SGD and SWI from the simulations of groundwater and solute transport using independent rainfall data sets, performed well in predicting the behavior of the nearshore groundwater system under the combined influence of episodic rainfall, tides, and density gradients. The findings and developed GLM form a basis for evaluating and predicting SGD, SWI, and associated mass fluxes from unconfined coastal aquifers under natural conditions, including episodic rainfall.

Regional analysis of annual maximum rainfall using TL-moments method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabri, Ani Bin; Daud, Zalina Mohd; Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd

2011-06-01

Information related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for designs of water-related structures. One of the concerns of hydrologists and engineers is the probability distribution for modeling of regional data. In this study, a novel approach to regional frequency analysis using L-moments is revisited. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the TL-moments method is employed. The results from both methods were then compared. The analysis was based on daily annual maximum rainfall data from 40 stations in Selangor Malaysia. TL-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized logistic (GLO) distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. TL-moment ratio diagram and Z-test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the two approaches showed that the L-moments and TL-moments produced equivalent results. GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation was used for performance evaluation, and it showed that the method of TL-moments was more efficient for lower quantile estimation compared with the L-moments.

Slope-velocity equilibrium and evolution of surface roughness on a stony hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Mark A.; Polyakov, Viktor O.; Nichols, Mary H.; Hernandez, Mariano; Li, Li; Zhao, Ying; Armendariz, Gerardo

2017-06-01

Slope-velocity equilibrium is hypothesized as a state that evolves naturally over time due to the interaction between overland flow and surface morphology, wherein steeper areas develop a relative increase in physical and hydraulic roughness such that flow velocity is a unique function of overland flow rate independent of slope gradient. This study tests this hypothesis under controlled conditions. Artificial rainfall was applied to 2 m by 6 m plots at 5, 12, and 20 % slope gradients. A series of simulations were made with two replications for each treatment with measurements of runoff rate, velocity, rock cover, and surface roughness. Velocities measured at the end of each experiment were a unique function of discharge rates, independent of slope gradient or rainfall intensity. Physical surface roughness was greater at steeper slopes. The data clearly showed that there was no unique hydraulic coefficient for a given slope, surface condition, or rainfall rate, with hydraulic roughness greater at steeper slopes and lower intensities. This study supports the hypothesis of slope-velocity equilibrium, implying that use of hydraulic equations, such as Chezy and Manning, in hillslope-scale runoff models is problematic because the coefficients vary with both slope and rainfall intensity.

Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, F.; Lall, U.; Monti, A.

2013-12-01

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is developed using a 65-years record (1948-2012) of daily rainfall amount at nineteen stations in South Florida and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds on the specific latitude of 27N (ZW27N) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM fitted is then used for predicting future rainfall patterns under global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly includes a consideration of seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can also be modeled. The results of the simulations obtained by using the downscaling model NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, seems to indicate that, as a consequence of increase of CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida should be subjected to more frequent dry conditions for the most part of the year, due mainly to a reduction of number of wet days and, at the same time, the territory should be also affected by extreme rainfall events that are more intense than the present ones. What appears from results is an increases of rainfall variability. This scenario seems coherent with the trends of rainfall patterns observed in the XX century. An investigation on the causes of such hydrologic changes, and specifically on the role of North Atlantic Subtropical High is pursued.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Evaluation of CMIP5 twentieth century rainfall simulation over the equatorial East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie

2018-02-01

This study assesses the performance of 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of rainfall over East Africa (EA) against reanalyzed datasets during 1951-2005. The datasets were sourced from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU). The metrics used to rank CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) based on their performance in reproducing the observed rainfall include correlation coefficient, standard deviation, bias, percentage bias, root mean square error, and trend. Performances of individual models vary widely. The overall performance of the models over EA is generally low. The models reproduce the observed bimodal rainfall over EA. However, majority of them overestimate and underestimate the October-December (OND) and March-May (MAM) rainfall, respectively. The monthly (inter-annual) correlation between model and reanalyzed is high (low). More than a third of the models show a positive bias of the annual rainfall. High standard deviation in rainfall is recorded in the Lake Victoria Basin, central Kenya, and eastern Tanzania. A number of models reproduce the spatial standard deviation of rainfall during MAM season as compared to OND. The top eight models that produce rainfall over EA relatively well are as follows: CanESM2, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CESM, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, INMCM4, and MICROC5. Although these results form a fairly good basis for selection of GCMs for carrying out climate projections and downscaling over EA, it is evident that there is still need for critical improvement in rainfall-related processes in the models assessed. Therefore, climate users are advised to use the projections of rainfall from CMIP5 models over EA cautiously when making decisions on adaptation to or mitigation of climate change.

Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

2018-03-01

There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and underestimate the heavy rain days compared to the observation data.

Effect of rainfall simulator and plot scale on overland flow and phosphorus transport.

PubMed

Sharpley, Andrew; Kleinman, Peter

2003-01-01

Rainfall simulation experiments are widely used to study erosion and contaminant transport in overland flow. We investigated the use of two rainfall simulators designed to rain on 2-m-long (2-m2) and 10.7-m-long (32.6-m2) plots to estimate overland flow and phosphorus (P) transport in comparison with watershed-scale data. Simulated rainfall (75 mm h(-1)) generated more overland flow from 2-m-long (20 L m2) than from 10.7-m-long (10 L m2) plots established in grass, no-till corn (Zea mays L.), and recently tilled fields, because a relatively greater area of the smaller plots became saturated (>75% of area) during rainfall compared with large plots (<75% area). Although average concentrations of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) in overland flow were greater from 2-m-long (0.50 mg L(-1)) than 10.7-m-long (0.35 mg L(-1)) plots, the relationship between DRP and Mehlich-3 soil P (as defined by regression slope) was similar for both plots and for published watershed data (0.0022 for grassed, 0.0036 for no-till, and 0.0112 for tilled sites). Conversely, sediment, particulate phosphorus (PP), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and selective transport of soil fines (<2 microm) were significantly lower from 2- than 10.7-m-long plots. However, slopes of the logarithmic regression between P enrichment ratio and sediment discharge were similar (0.281-0.301) for 2- and 10.7-m-long plots, and published watershed data. While concentrations and loads of P change with plot scales, processes governing DRP and PP transport in overland flow are consistent, supporting the limited use of small plots and rainfall simulators to assess the relationship between soil P and overland flow P as a function of soil type and management.

Derivation of debris flow critical rainfall thresholds from land stability modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papa, M. N.; Medina, V.; Bateman, A.; Ciervo, F.

2012-04-01

The aim of the work is to develop a system capable of providing debris flow warnings in areas where historical events data are not available as well as in the case of changing environments and climate. For these reasons, critical rainfall threshold curves are derived from mathematical and numerical simulations rather than the classical derivation from empirical rainfall data. The operational use of distributed model, based on the stability analysis for each grid cell of the basin, is not feasible in the case of warnings due to the long running time required for this kind of model as well as the lack of detailed information on the spatial distribution of the properties of the material in many practical cases. Moreover, with the aim of giving debris flow warnings, it is not necessary to know the distribution of instable elements along the basin but only if a debris flow may affect the vulnerable areas in the valley. The capability of a debris flow of reaching the downstream areas depends on many factors linked with the topography, the solid concentration, the rheological properties of the debris mixture and the flow discharge as well as the occurrence of liquefaction of the sliding mass. In relation to a specific basin, many of these factors may be considered as not time dependent. The most rainfall dependent factors are flow discharge and correlated total debris volume. In the present study, the total volume that is instable, and therefore available for the flow, is considered as the governing factor from which it is possible to assess whether a debris flow will affect the downstream areas or not. The possible triggering debris flow is simulated, in a generic element of the basin, by an infinite slope stability analysis. The groundwater pressure is calculated by the superposition of the effect of an "antecedent" rainfall and an "event" rainfall. The groundwater pressure response to antecedent rainfall is used as the initial condition for the time-dependent computation of the groundwater pressure response to the event rainfall. Antecedent rainfall response is estimated in the hypotheses of low intensity and long duration, thus assuming steady state conditions and slope parallel groundwater flux. The short term response to rainfall is assessed in the hypothesis of vertical infiltration. The simulations are performed in a virtual basin, representative of the one studied, taking into account the uncertainties linked with the definition of the characteristics of the soil. The approach presented is based on the simulation of a large number of cases covering the entire range of the governing input dynamic variables. For any possible combination of rainfall intensity, duration and antecedent rain, the total debris volume, available for the flow, is estimated. The resulting database is elaborated in order to obtain rainfall threshold curves. When operating in real time, if the observed and forecasted rainfall exceeds a given threshold, the corresponding probability of debris flow occurrence may be estimated.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick catchment, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shulun; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2017-12-01

Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In term of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method performed second best according to streamflow predictions at the five gauges in the calibration period (01/01/2007–31/12/2011) and four gauges during the validation period (01/01/2012–30/06/2014). However, NN produced the worst prediction at the outlet of the catchment in the validation period, indicating a low robustness. While the IDW exhibited the best performance in the study catchment in terms of accuracy, robustness and efficiency, more general recommendations on the selection of rainfall interpolation methods need to be further explored.

Impact of rain gauge quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation: an application to the Warwick catchment, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shulun; Li, Yuan; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.

2018-01-01

Rain gauges are widely used to obtain temporally continuous point rainfall records, which are then interpolated into spatially continuous data to force hydrological models. However, rainfall measurements and interpolation procedure are subject to various uncertainties, which can be reduced by applying quality control and selecting appropriate spatial interpolation approaches. Consequently, the integrated impact of rainfall quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation has attracted increased attention but not been fully addressed. This study applies a quality control procedure to the hourly rainfall measurements obtained in the Warwick catchment in eastern Australia. The grid-based daily precipitation from the Australian Water Availability Project was used as a reference. The Pearson correlation coefficient between the daily accumulation of gauged rainfall and the reference data was used to eliminate gauges with significant quality issues. The unrealistic outliers were censored based on a comparison between gauged rainfall and the reference. Four interpolation methods, including the inverse distance weighting (IDW), nearest neighbors (NN), linear spline (LN), and ordinary Kriging (OK), were implemented. The four methods were firstly assessed through a cross-validation using the quality-controlled rainfall data. The impacts of the quality control and interpolation on streamflow simulation were then evaluated through a semi-distributed hydrological model. The results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) and Bias of the streamflow simulations were significantly improved after quality control. In the cross-validation, the IDW and OK methods resulted in good interpolation rainfall, while the NN led to the worst result. In term of the impact on hydrological prediction, the IDW led to the most consistent streamflow predictions with the observations, according to the validation at five streamflow-gauged locations. The OK method performed second best according to streamflow predictions at the five gauges in the calibration period (01/01/2007–31/12/2011) and four gauges during the validation period (01/01/2012–30/06/2014). However, NN produced the worst prediction at the outlet of the catchment in the validation period, indicating a low robustness. While the IDW exhibited the best performance in the study catchment in terms of accuracy, robustness and efficiency, more general recommendations on the selection of rainfall interpolation methods need to be further explored.

Analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall over large areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuomo, Sabatino; Della Sala, Maria

2014-05-01

Due to heavy rainstorms, steep hillslopes may be affected by either shallow landslides or soil superficial erosion (Acharya et al., 2011), which originate different flow-like mass movements in adjacent or overlapping source areas (Cascini et al., 2013). Triggering analysis (Cascini et al., 2011) is a relevant issue for hazard assessment that is, in turn, the first step of risk analysis procedures (Fell et al., 2008). Nevertheless, the available approaches separately consider shallow landslides and soil erosion. Specifically, quantitative models for landslides triggering analysis allow simulating the physical processes leading to failure such as pore water pressure increase and soil shear mobilization and provide estimates of the amount of material potentially involved; however, success of quantitative methods must be carefully evaluated in complex geological setting as recently outlined (Sorbino et al., 2010) and further applications to real case histories are straightforward. On the other hand, a wide range of models exist for soil erosion analysis, which differ in terms of complexity, processes considered and data required for the model calibration and practical applications; in particular, quantitative models can estimate the source areas and the amount of eroded soil through empirical relationships or mathematical equations describing the main physical processes governing soil erosion (Merritt et al., 2003). In this work a spatially distributed analysis is proposed for testing the potentialities of two available models to respectively investigate the spatial occurrence of first-time shallow landslides and superficial soil erosion repeatedly occurring in a large test area of the Southern Italy. Both analyses take into account the seasonal variation of soil suction, rainfall characteristics and soil cover use (Cuomo and Della Sala, 2013). The achieved results show that the source areas of shallow landslides strongly depend on rainfall intensity and duration and soil initial suction. On the other hand, the source areas for erosion phenomena depend on rainfall characteristics and soil cover, with simulated eroded areas larger in autumn season. In addition, for a past event, the simulated source areas of shallow landslides are smaller than those observed in the field while the simulated eroded areas with thickness greater than 5 cm are comparable with the in-situ evidences if the analysis takes into account high rainfall intensity and a spatially variable soil cover use, thus providing a consistent interpretation of the event. References Acharya, G., Cochrane, T., Davies, T., Bowman, E. (2011). Quantifying and modeling postfailure sediment yields from laboratory-scale soil erosion and shallow landslide experiments with silty loess. Geomorphology 129, 49-58. Cascini L., Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2011). Spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides of flow type: A case of Sarno-Quindici, Italy. Geomorphology, 126(1-2), 148-158. Cascini, L., Sorbino, G., Cuomo, S., Ferlisi, S. (2013). Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy). Landslides, 1-14, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0395-3. Cuomo S., Della Sala M. (2013). Spatially distributed analysis of shallow landslides and soil erosion induced by rainfall. (submitted to Natural Hazards). Fell, R., Corominas J., Bonnard, C., Cascini, L., Leroi E., Savage, W.Z., on behalf of the JTC-1 Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (2008). Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Engineering Geolology, 102(3-4):85-98. Merritt, W.S., Latcher, R.A., Jakeman, A.J. (2003). A review of erosion and sediment transport models. Environmental Modelling and Software 18, 761- 799. Sorbino G., Sica C., Cascini L. (2010). Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models. Natural Hazards, 53(2), 313-332.

Estimation of small-scale soil erosion in laboratory experiments with Structure from Motion photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaguer-Puig, Matilde; Marqués-Mateu, Ángel; Lerma, José Luis; Ibáñez-Asensio, Sara

2017-10-01

The quantitative estimation of changes in terrain surfaces caused by water erosion can be carried out from precise descriptions of surfaces given by means of digital elevation models (DEMs). Some stages of water erosion research efforts are conducted in the laboratory using rainfall simulators and soil boxes with areas less than 1 m2. Under these conditions, erosive processes can lead to very small surface variations and high precision DEMs are needed to account for differences measured in millimetres. In this paper, we used a photogrammetric Structure from Motion (SfM) technique to build DEMs of a 0.5 m2 soil box to monitor several simulated rainfall episodes in the laboratory. The technique of DEM of difference (DoD) was then applied using GIS tools to compute estimates of volumetric changes between each pair of rainfall episodes. The aim was to classify the soil surface into three classes: erosion areas, deposition areas, and unchanged or neutral areas, and quantify the volume of soil that was eroded and deposited. We used a thresholding criterion of changes based on the estimated error of the difference of DEMs, which in turn was obtained from the root mean square error of the individual DEMs. Experimental tests showed that the choice of different threshold values in the DoD can lead to volume differences as large as 60% when compared to the direct volumetric difference. It turns out that the choice of that threshold was a key point in this method. In parallel to photogrammetric work, we collected sediments from each rain episode and obtained a series of corresponding measured sediment yields. The comparison between computed and measured sediment yields was significantly correlated, especially when considering the accumulated value of the five simulations. The computed sediment yield was 13% greater than the measured sediment yield. The procedure presented in this paper proved to be suitable for the determination of sediment yields in rainfall-driven soil erosion experiments conducted in the laboratory.

Effect of age and rainfall pH on contaminant yields from metal roofs.

PubMed

Wicke, Daniel; Cochrane, Thomas A; O'Sullivan, Aisling D; Cave, Simon; Derksen, Mark

2014-01-01

Metal roofs are recognized for conveying significant metal loads to urban streams through stormwater runoff. Metal concentrations in urban runoff depend on roof types and prevailing weather conditions but the combined effects of roof age and rainfall pH on metal mobilization are not well understood. To investigate these effects on roof runoff, water quality was analysed from galvanized iron and copper roofs following rainfall events and also from simulating runoff using a rainfall simulator on specially constructed roof modules. Zinc and copper yields under different pH regimes were investigated for two roof materials and two different ages. Metal mobilization from older roofs was greater than new roofs with 55-year-old galvanized roof surfaces yielding more Zn, on average increasing by 45% and 30% under a rainfall pH of 4 and 8, respectively. Predominantly dissolved (85-95%) Zn and Cu concentrations in runoff exponentially increased as the rainfall pH decreased. Results also confirmed that copper guttering and downpipes associated with galvanized steel roof systems can substantially increase copper levels in roof runoff. Understanding the dynamics of roof surfaces as a function of weathering and rainfall pH regimes can help developers with making better choices about roof types and materials for stormwater improvement.

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Rainfall simulation experiments: Influence of water temperature, water quality and plot design on soil erosion and runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iserloh, Thomas; Pegoraro, Dominique; Schlösser, Angelika; Thesing, Hannah; Seeger, Manuel; Ries, Johannes B.

2015-04-01

Field rainfall simulators are designed to study soil erosion processes and provide urgently needed data for various geomorphological, hydrological and pedological issues. Due to the different conditions and technologies applied, there are several methodological aspects under review of the scientific community, particularly concerning design, procedures and conditions of measurement for infiltration, runoff and soil erosion. This study aims at contributing fundamental data for understanding rainfall simulations in depth by studying the effect of the following parameters on the measurement results: 1. Plot design - round or rectangular plot: Can we identify differences in amount of runoff and erosion? 2. Water quality: What is the influence of the water's salt load on interrill erosion and infiltration as measured by rainfall experiments? 3. Water temperature: How much are the results conditioned by the temperature of water, which is subject to changes due to environmental conditions during the experiments? Preliminary results show a moderate increase of soil erosion with the water's salt load while runoff stays almost on the same level. With increasing water temperature, runoff increases continuously. At very high temperatures, soil erosion is clearly increased. A first comparison between round and rectangular plot indicates the rectangular plot to be the most suitable plot shape, but ambiguous results make further research necessary. The analysis of these three factors concerning their influence on runoff and erosion shows that clear methodological standards are necessary in order to make rainfall simulation experiments comparable.

Evaluating the efficacy of wood shreds for mitigating erosion

Treesearch

Randy B. Foltz; Natalie S. Copeland

2009-01-01

An erosion control product made by shredding on-site woody materials was evaluated for mitigating erosion through a series of rainfall simulations. Tests were conducted on bare soil and soil with 30, 50, and 70% cover on a coarse and a fine-grained soil. Results indicated that the wood product known as wood shreds reduced runoff and soil loss from both soil types....

Hydrological Variables and Dissolved Phosphorus in the Runoff from No-tilled Soil after Application of Swine Liquid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, F. T.; Bertol, I.; de Amaral, A. J.; Grahl dos Santos, P.; Ramos, R. R.; Werner, R. S.; Miras Avalos, J. M.

2012-04-01

Swine manure is used as a soil fertilizer in South Brazil. Commonly, it is applied continuously and in great amounts over surfaces with an important relief and without facilities that avoid water erosion. Thus, this manure is a potential risk of environmental pollution, mainly for the eutrophication of water bodies due to a runoff rich in nutrients. The aim of this work was to assess some soil hydrological parameters and to quantify the dissolved phosphorus losses in the runoff from no-tilled soils after the application of swine liquid manure. The experiment was carried out in the Highlands of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, in June 2009, over a Nitisol. On field plots, a 90-minute simulated rainfall test was performed with a rotating boom rainfall simulator and rainfall intensity of 70 mm h-1. Prior to the rainfall simulation, sowing was performed using a disk planter either with or without tines. Spacing between lines was 0.5 m. Swine liquid manure was applied at rates of 0.0, 30 and 60 m3ha-1 to the plots planted using tines; whereas it was applied at 15, 45 e 75 m3ha-1 to the plots were no tines were used for planting. During rainfall simulation, readings of runoff rate were taken each five minutes; total water loss was calculated by integrating all the 5-minute readings. Runoff samples were collected at 10 minutes intervals, and they were filtered through a 0.45 μm filter to determine dissolved phosphorus. Hydrological variables were significantly affected by the use of tines, which favoured infiltration and reduced runoff as compared to the non-use of tines. Runoff started at 28 and 11 minutes, water losses were 252 and 467 m3 ha-1, maximum runoff rate were 29 and 42 mm h-1 and constant rates of infiltration were 41 and 28 mm h-1, for treatments with and without tines, respectively. Dissolved phosphorus increased with the rate of swine liquid manure applied, with a trend to decrease from the beginning to the end of rainfall. The highest concentration was 0.19 mg L-1 and 0.85 mg L-1, for treatments with and without tines, respectively. Dissolved phosphorus losses (g ha-1) increased linearly with swine liquid manure (m3 ha-1). The angular coefficient of the equation, which relates the increase in phosphorus loss with the applied manure, was lower when using tines, indicating that their use may reduce eutrophication risks from areas where swine manure is used. Equations for phosphorus losses were y = 4.3 + 0.5x and y = 28.1 + 1.9x, for treatments with and without tines, respectively.

Modeling the temporal variability of zinc concentrations in zinc roof runoff-experimental study and uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Sage, Jérémie; El Oreibi, Elissar; Saad, Mohamed; Gromaire, Marie-Christine

2016-08-01

This study investigates the temporal variability of zinc concentrations from zinc roof runoff. The influence of rainfall characteristics and dry period duration is evaluated by combining laboratory experiment on small zinc sheets and in situ measurements under real weather conditions from a 1.6-m(2) zinc panel. A reformulation of a commonly used conceptual runoff quality model is introduced and its ability to simulate the evolution of zinc concentrations is evaluated. A systematic and sharp decrease from initially high to relatively low and stable zinc concentrations after 0.5 to 2 mm of rainfall is observed for both experiments, suggesting that highly soluble corrosion products are removed at early stages of runoff. A moderate dependence between antecedent dry period duration and the magnitude of zinc concentrations at the beginning of a rain event is evidenced. Contrariwise, results indicate that concentrations are not significantly influenced by rainfall intensities. Simulated rainfall experiment nonetheless suggests that a slight effect of rainfall intensities may be expected after the initial decrease of concentrations. Finally, this study shows that relatively simple conceptual runoff quality models may be adopted to simulate the variability of zinc concentrations during a rain event and from a rain event to another.

Analysis of Rainfall Infiltration Law in Unsaturated Soil Slope

PubMed Central

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θ s - θ r), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process. PMID:24672332

Analysis of rainfall infiltration law in unsaturated soil slope.

PubMed

Zhang, Gui-rong; Qian, Ya-jun; Wang, Zhang-chun; Zhao, Bo

2014-01-01

In the study of unsaturated soil slope stability under rainfall infiltration, it is worth continuing to explore how much rainfall infiltrates into the slope in a rain process, and the amount of rainfall infiltrating into slope is the important factor influencing the stability. Therefore, rainfall infiltration capacity is an important issue of unsaturated seepage analysis for slope. On the basis of previous studies, rainfall infiltration law of unsaturated soil slope is analyzed. Considering the characteristics of slope and rainfall, the key factors affecting rainfall infiltration of slope, including hydraulic properties, water storage capacity (θs - θr), soil types, rainfall intensities, and antecedent and subsequent infiltration rates on unsaturated soil slope, are discussed by using theory analysis and numerical simulation technology. Based on critical factors changing, this paper presents three calculation models of rainfall infiltrability for unsaturated slope, including (1) infiltration model considering rainfall intensity; (2) effective rainfall model considering antecedent rainfall; (3) infiltration model considering comprehensive factors. Based on the technology of system response, the relationship of rainfall and infiltration is described, and the prototype of regression model of rainfall infiltration is given, in order to determine the amount of rain penetration during a rain process.

Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

DOE PAGES

Liu, Xiaomang; Yang, Tiantian; Hsu, Koulin; ...

2017-01-10

On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow for a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable alternatives for studies on investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks $-$ Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input for a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basinsmore » on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflows using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation are closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River basin, gauge-based precipitation, GLDAS precipitation, and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. Finally, the evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that the PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potential to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source of a limited gauge network for conducting long-term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.« less

Using High-Resolution Satellite Observations for Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations. Part I: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Hou, A.; Lau, W. K.; Shie, C.; Tao, W.; Lin, X.; Chou, M.; Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.

2006-05-01

The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. Mesoscale organization is adequately simulated except when environmental wind shear is very weak. The partitions between convective and stratiform rain are also close to TMI and PR classification. However, the model simulated rain spectrum is quite different from either TMI or PR measurements. The model produces more heavy rains and light rains (less than 0.1 mm/hr) than the observations. The model also produces heavier vertical hydrometer profiles of rain, graupel when compared with TMI retrievals and PR radar reflectivity. Comparing GCE simulated OLR and cloud properties with CERES measurements found that the model has much larger domain averaged OLR due to smaller total cloud fraction and a much skewed distribution of OLR and cloud top than CERES observations, indicating that the model's cloud field is not wide spread, consistent with the model's precipitation activity. These results will be used as guidance for improving the model's microphysics.

Simulation of Runoff Changes Caused by Cropland to Forest Conversion in the Upper Yangtze River Region, SW China

PubMed Central

Yu, Pengtao; Wang, Yanhui; Coles, Neil; Xiong, Wei; Xu, Lihong

2015-01-01

The "Grain for Green Project" is a country-wide ecological program to converse marginal cropland to forest, which has been implemented in China since 2002. To quantify influence of this significant vegetation change, Guansihe Hydrological (GSH) Model, a validated physically-based distributed hydrological model, was applied to simulate runoff responses to land use change in the Guansihe watershed that is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin in Southwestern China with an area of only 21.1 km2. Runoff responses to two single rainfall events, 90 mm and 206 mm respectively, were simulated for 16 scenarios of cropland to forest conversion. The model simulations indicated that the total runoff generated after conversion to forest was strongly dependent on whether the land was initially used for dry croplands without standing water in fields or constructed (or walled) paddy fields. The simulated total runoff generated from the two rainfall events displayed limited variation for the conversion of dry croplands to forest, while it strongly decreased after paddy fields were converted to forest. The effect of paddy terraces on runoff generation was dependent on the rainfall characteristics and antecedent moisture (or saturation) conditions in the fields. The reduction in simulated runoff generated from intense rainfall events suggested that afforestation and terracing might be effective in managing runoff and had the potential to mitigate flooding in southwestern China. PMID:26192181

Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xiaomang; Yang, Tiantian; Hsu, Koulin

On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow for a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable alternatives for studies on investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks $-$ Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input for a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basinsmore » on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflows using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation are closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River basin, gauge-based precipitation, GLDAS precipitation, and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. Finally, the evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that the PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potential to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source of a limited gauge network for conducting long-term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.« less

Measuring dynamic infiltration rates during rainfall of fluctuating intensity: an approach using affine Horton equations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkerley, David

2017-04-01

It is important to develop methods for determining infiltrability and infiltration rates under conditions of fluctuating rainfall intensity, since rainfall intensity rarely remains constant. During rain of fluctuating intensity, ponding deepens and dissipates, and the drivers of soil infiltration, including sorptivity, fluctuate in value. This has been explored on dryland soils in the field, using small plots and rainfall simulation, involving repeated changes in intensity as well as short and long hiatuses in rainfall. The field area was the Fowlers Gap Arid Zone Research Station, in western NSW, Australia. The field experiments used multiple 60 minute design rainfall events that all had the same total depth and average rainfall intensity, but which included intensity bursts at various positions within the event. These were based on the character of local rainfall events in the field area. Infiltration was found from plot runoff rates measured every 2 minutes, and rainfall intensities that were adjusted by computer-controlled pumps at 1 second intervals. Data were analysed by fitting a family of affine Horton equations, all having the same final infiltrability (about 6-7 mm/h) but having initial infiltrabilities and exponential decay constants that were permitted to recover during periods of very low intensity rain, or rainfall hiatuses. Results show that the terms in the Horton equation, f0, fc, and Kf, can all be estimated from field data of the kind collected. This is a considerable advance over 'steady-state' rainfall simulation methods, which typically only allow the estimation of the final infiltrability fc. This may rarely be reached owing to the occurrence of short rainfall events, or to changing intensity under natural rainfall, that prohibits the establishment of steady-state infiltration and runoff. Importantly, this method allows a focus on the recovery of infiltrability during periods of reduced rainfall intensity. Recovery of infiltrability is shown to proceed at rates of up to 1 mm/h per minute of hiatus time, or by 20 mm/h during a 20 minute period of low rainfall intensity.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

The Effects Of Urban Landscape Patterns On Rainfall-Runoff Processes At Small Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.

2016-12-01

Many studies have indicated that urban landscape change may alter rainfall-runoff processes. However, how urban landscape pattern affect this process is little addressed. In this study, the hydrological effects of landscape pattern on rainfall-runoff processes at small-scale was explored. Twelve residential blocks with independent drainage systems in Beijing were selected as case study areas. Impervious metrics of these blocks, i.e., total impervious area (TIA) and directly connected impervious area (DCIA), were identified. A drainage index describing catchment general drainage load and the overland flow distance, Ad, was estimated and used as one of the landscape spatial metrics. Three scenarios were designed to test the potential influence of impervious surface pattern on runoff processes. Runoff variables including total and peak runoff depth (Qt and Qp) were simulated under different rainfall conditions by Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The relationship between landscape patterns and runoff variables were analyzed, and further among the three scenarios. The results demonstrated that, in small urban blocks, spatial patterns have inherent influences on rainfall-runoff processes. Specifically, (1) Imperviousness acts as effective indicators in predicting both Qt and Qp. As rainfall intensity increases, the major affecting factor changes from DCIA to TIA for both Qt and Qp; (2) Increasing the size of drainage area dominated by each drainage inlet will benefit the block peak flow mitigation; (3) Different spatial concentrations of impervious surfaces have inherent influences on Qp, when impervious surfaces located away from the outlet can reduce the peak flow discharge. These findings may provide insights into the role of urban landscape patterns in driving rainfall-runoff responses in urbanization, which is essential for urban planning and stormwater management.

Modelled rainfall skill assessment against a 1000-year time/space isotope dendro-climatology for southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodborne, Stephan; Hall, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

2016-04-01

Palaeoclimate reconstruction using isotopic analysis of tree growth increments has yielded a 1000-year record of rainfall variability in southern Africa. Isotope dendro-climatology reconstructions from baobab trees (Adansonia digitata) provide evidence for rainfall variability from the arid Namib Desert and the Limpopo River Valley. Isotopic analysis of a museum specimen of a yellowwood tree (Podocarps falcatus) yields another record from the southwestern part of the subcontinent. Combined with the limited classic denro-climatologies available in the region these records yield palaeo-rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones as well as the hyper-arid zone over the last 1000 years. Coherent shifts in all of the records indicate synoptic changes in the westerlies, the inter-tropical convergence zone, and the Congo air boundary. The most substantial rainfall shift takes place at about 1600 CE at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Another distinctive feature of the record is a widespread phenomenon that occurs shortly after 1810 CE that in southern Africa corresponds with a widespread social upheaval known as the Difequane or Mfekane. Large scale forcing of the system includes sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The Little Ice Age and Mfekane climate shifts result from different forcing mechanisms, and the rainfall response in the different regions at these times do not have a fixed phase relationship. This complexity provides a good scenario to test climate models. A first order (wetter versus drier) comparison between each of the tree records and a 1000-year palaeoclimate model simulation for the Little Ice Age and Mfekane transitions demonstrates a generally good correspondence.

Improving the performance of streamflow forecasting model using data-preprocessing technique in Dungun River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khai Tiu, Ervin Shan; Huang, Yuk Feng; Ling, Lloyd

2018-03-01

An accurate streamflow forecasting model is important for the development of flood mitigation plan as to ensure sustainable development for a river basin. This study adopted Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) data-preprocessing technique to process and denoise the rainfall data before putting into the Support Vector Machine (SVM) streamflow forecasting model in order to improve the performance of the selected model. Rainfall data and river water level data for the period of 1996-2016 were used for this purpose. Homogeneity tests (Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, the Buishand Range Test, the Pettitt Test and the Von Neumann Ratio Test) and normality tests (Shapiro-Wilk Test, Anderson-Darling Test, Lilliefors Test and Jarque-Bera Test) had been carried out on the rainfall series. Homogenous and non-normally distributed data were found in all the stations, respectively. From the recorded rainfall data, it was observed that Dungun River Basin possessed higher monthly rainfall from November to February, which was during the Northeast Monsoon. Thus, the monthly and seasonal rainfall series of this monsoon would be the main focus for this research as floods usually happen during the Northeast Monsoon period. The predicted water levels from SVM model were assessed with the observed water level using non-parametric statistical tests (Biased Method, Kendall's Tau B Test and Spearman's Rho Test).

Improving understanding of the underlying physical process of sediment wash-off from urban road surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthusamy, Manoranjan; Tait, Simon; Schellart, Alma; Beg, Md Nazmul Azim; Carvalho, Rita F.; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2018-02-01

Among the urban aquatic pollutants, the most common is sediment which also acts as a transport medium for many contaminants. Hence there is an increasing interest in being able to better predict the sediment wash-off from urban surfaces. The exponential wash-off model is the most widely used method to predict the sediment wash-off. Although a number of studies proposed various modifications to the original exponential wash-off equation, these studies mostly looked into one parameter in isolation thereby ignoring the interactions between the parameters corresponding to rainfall, catchment and sediment characteristics. Hence in this study we aim (a) to investigate the effect of rainfall intensity, surface slope and initial load on wash-off load in an integrated and systematic way and (b) to subsequently improve the exponential wash-off equation focusing on the effect of the aforementioned three parameters. A series of laboratory experiments were carried out in a full-scale setup, comprising of a rainfall simulator, a 1 m2 bituminous road surface, and a continuous wash-off measuring system. Five rainfall intensities ranging from 33 to 155 mm/h, four slopes ranging from 2 to 16% and three initial loads ranging from 50 to 200 g/m2 were selected based on values obtained from the literature. Fine sediment with a size range of 300-600 μm was used for all of the tests. Each test was carried out for one hour with at least 9 wash-off samples per test collected. Mass balance checks were carried out for all the tests as a quality control measure to make sure that there is no significant loss of sand during the tests. Results show that the washed off sediment load at any given time is proportional to initial load for a given combination of rainfall intensity and surface slope. This indicates the importance of dedicated modelling of build-up so as to subsequently predict wash-off load. It was also observed that the maximum fraction that is washed off from the surface increases with both rainfall intensity and the surface slope. This observation leads to the second part of the study where the existing wash-off model is modified by introducing a capacity factor which defines this maximum fraction. This capacity factor is derived as a function of wash-off coefficient, making use of the correlation between the maximum fraction and the wash-off rate. Values of the modified wash-off coefficient are presented for all combinations of rainfall intensities and surface slopes, which can be transferred to other urban catchments with similar conditions.

Combined effects of short-term rainfall patterns and soil texture on nitrogen cycling -- A Modeling Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, C.; Riley, W.J.

2009-11-01

Precipitation variability and magnitude are expected to change in many parts of the world over the 21st century. We examined the potential effects of intra-annual rainfall patterns on soil nitrogen (N) transport and transformation in the unsaturated soil zone using a deterministic dynamic modeling approach. The model (TOUGHREACT-N), which has been tested and applied in several experimental and observational systems, mechanistically accounts for microbial activity, soil-moisture dynamics that respond to precipitation variability, and gaseous and aqueous tracer transport in the soil. Here, we further tested and calibrated the model against data from a precipitation variability experiment in a tropical systemmore » in Costa Rica. The model was then used to simulate responses of soil moisture, microbial dynamics, nitrogen (N) aqueous and gaseous species, N leaching, and N trace-gas emissions to changes in rainfall patterns; the effect of soil texture was also examined. The temporal variability of nitrate leaching and NO, N{sub 2}, and N{sub 2}O effluxes were significantly influenced by rainfall dynamics. Soil texture combined with rainfall dynamics altered soil moisture dynamics, and consequently regulated soil N responses to precipitation changes. The clay loam soil more effectively buffered water stress during relatively long intervals between precipitation events, particularly after a large rainfall event. Subsequent soil N aqueous and gaseous losses showed either increases or decreases in response to increasing precipitation variability due to complex soil moisture dynamics. For a high rainfall scenario, high precipitation variability resulted in as high as 2.4-, 2.4-, 1.2-, and 13-fold increases in NH{sub 3}, NO, N{sub 2}O and NO{sub 3}{sup -} fluxes, respectively, in clay loam soil. In sandy loam soil, however, NO and N{sub 2}O fluxes decreased by 15% and 28%, respectively, in response to high precipitation variability. Our results demonstrate that soil N cycling responses to increasing precipitation variability depends on precipitation amount and soil texture, and that accurate prediction of future N cycling and gas effluxes requires models with relatively sophisticated representation of the relevant processes.« less

A Point Rainfall Generator With Internal Storm Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marien, J. L.; Vandewiele, G. L.

1986-04-01

A point rainfall generator is a probabilistic model for the time series of rainfall as observed in one geographical point. The main purpose of such a model is to generate long synthetic sequences of rainfall for simulation studies. The present generator is a continuous time model based on 13.5 years of 10-min point rainfalls observed in Belgium and digitized with a resolution of 0.1 mm. The present generator attempts to model all features of the rainfall time series which are important for flood studies as accurately as possible. The original aspects of the model are on the one hand the way in which storms are defined and on the other hand the theoretical model for the internal storm characteristics. The storm definition has the advantage that the important characteristics of successive storms are fully independent and very precisely modelled, even on time bases as small as 10 min. The model of the internal storm characteristics has a strong theoretical structure. This fact justifies better the extrapolation of this model to severe storms for which the data are very sparse. This can be important when using the model to simulate severe flood events.

Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

2003-04-01

Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

Microbial ice nucleators scavenged from the atmosphere during simulated rain events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanlon, Regina; Powers, Craig; Failor, Kevin; Monteil, Caroline L.; Vinatzer, Boris A.; Schmale, David G.

2017-08-01

Rain and snow collected at ground level have been found to contain biological ice nucleators. These ice nucleators have been proposed to have originated in clouds, where they may have participated in the formation of precipitation via ice phase nucleation. We conducted a series of field experiments to test the hypothesis that at least some of the microbial ice nucleators (prokaryotes and eukaryotes) present in rain may not originate in clouds but instead be scavenged from the lower atmosphere by rainfall. Thirty-three simulated rain events were conducted over four months off the side of the Smart Road Bridge in Blacksburg, VA, USA. In each event, sterile water was dispensed over the side of the bridge and recovered in sterile containers in an open fallow agricultural field below (a distance of ∼55 m). Microbes scavenged from the simulated rain events were cultured and their ice nucleation activity was examined. Putative microbial ice nucleators were cultured from 94% (31/33) of the simulated rain events, and represented 1.5% (121/8331) of the total colonies assayed. Putative ice nucleators were subjected to additional droplet freezing assays, and those confirmed through these repeated assays represented 0.4% (34/8331) of the total. Mean CFUs scavenged by simulated rain ranged from 2 to 267 CFUs/mL. Scavenged ice nucleators belong to a number of taxa including the bacterial genera Pseudomonas, Pantoea, and Xanthomonas, and the fungal genera Fusarium, Humicola, and Mortierella. An ice-nucleating strain of the fungal genus Penicillium was also recovered from a volumetric air sampler at the study site. This work expands our knowledge of the scavenging properties of rainfall, and suggests that at least some ice nucleators in natural precipitation events may have been scrubbed from the atmosphere during rainfall, and thus are not likely to be involved in precipitation.

Impact of land-levelling measures on gully and soil erosion analysed by rainfall simulation and UAV remote sensing data in the Souss Basin, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Klaus Daniel; d'Oleire-Oltmanns, Sebastian; Ries, Johannes B.; Marzolff, Irene; Hssaine, Ali Ait

2013-04-01

Since the 16th century with the rise and fall of sugar production, the Souss basin, situated between High and Anti-Atlas, is affected by gully erosion due to the deforestation of Argan trees. Nowadays, it is one of the most intensive agricultural regions of Morocco. On its sedimentary fans and alluvial terraces, a very dynamic land use change is going on since the early 1960s with transformations of traditional agriculture into agro-industrial plantations of citrus fruits, bananas and vegetables irrigated by deep aquifer groundwater. The implementation of land use change and further expansion of plantations into former agriculturally unsuitable marginal land is accomplished today by land-levelling measures with heavy machinery. The levelling of badland areas and the infilling of existing gully systems lead to changes and disconnections of the drainage system and watersheds on the sedimentary fans. The aim of this study is the investigation of the influence of land-levelling measures and gully infilling on recent erosion rates and on both the re-activation of old and the initiation of new gully systems. An approach combining punctual process analysis through experimental rainfall simulation and gully mapping as well as volume quantification analysing on a local scale using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing data was applied to relate runoff and sediment production in the gully catchment to current gully erosion rates. For conducting the rainfall simulations a small portable nozzle rainfall simulator with a rainfall intensity of 40 mm h-1 was used. We applied an autopiloted UAV for the monitoring of gullies with small-format aerial photography. Photogrammetric image processing enables the creation of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and ortho-image mosaics with very high (centimetre) resolution. Results of the experimental geomorphological fieldwork show a significant increase of mean runoff coefficients and mean sediment loads (1.4 and 3.5 times higher respectively) on levelled study sites compared to undisturbed sites. Consequently, the most active gullies with the highest gully erosion rates are also found on levelled test sites. For one of the test sites it can be stated that gully erosion accounts for up to 95 % of the total soil loss of the catchment. The surface area serves only as runoff source. The infilling of old gully systems is mostly done by transferring large amounts of soil material from the hillslopes into the channels. This may lower the soil surface in a gully catchment by about 10 cm on average. Runoff water often follows the old pathways. Thus, infilled gully systems tend to be re-activated very fast. The freshly provided soil material can easily be eroded. Additionally, the bulldozer furrows lead to parallel drainage network patterns in the development of new side gullies.

WRF model performance under flash-flood associated rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejia-Estrada, Iskra; Bates, Paul; Ángel Rico-Ramírez, Miguel

2017-04-01

Understanding the natural processes that precede the occurrence of flash floods is crucial to improve the future flood projections in a changing climate. Using numerical weather prediction tools allows to determine one of the triggering conditions for these particularly dangerous events, difficult to forecast due to their short lead-time. However, simulating the spatial and temporal evolution of the rainfall that leads to a rapid rise in river levels requires determining the best model configuration without compromising the computational efficiency. The current research involves the results of the first part of a cascade modeling approach, where the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the heavy rainfall in the east of the UK in June 2012 when stationary thunderstorms caused 2-hour accumulated values to match those expected in the whole month of June over the city of Newcastle. The optimum model set-up was obtained after extensive testing regarding physics parameterizations, spin-up times, datasets used as initial conditions and model resolution and nesting, hence determining its sensitivity to reproduce localised events of short duration. The outputs were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed using information from the national weather radar network as well as interpolated rainfall values from gauges, respectively. Statistical and skill score values show that the model is able to produce reliable accumulated precipitation values while explicitly solving the atmospheric equations in high resolution domains as long as several hydrometeors are considered with a spin-up time that allows the model to assimilate the initial conditions without going too far back in time from the event of interest. The results from the WRF model will serve as input to run a semi-distributed hydrological model to determine the rainfall-runoff relationship within an uncertainty assessment framework that will allow evaluating the implications of assumptions at the top of the modeling process in the final outputs of the cascade.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

2018-01-01

Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

Characterizing rainfall of hot arid region by using time-series modeling and sustainability approaches: a case study from Gujarat, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Kumar, Sanjay; Dayal, Devi

2016-05-01

This study aimed at characterization of rainfall dynamics in a hot arid region of Gujarat, India by employing time-series modeling techniques and sustainability approach. Five characteristics, i.e., normality, stationarity, homogeneity, presence/absence of trend, and persistence of 34-year (1980-2013) period annual rainfall time series of ten stations were identified/detected by applying multiple parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Furthermore, the study involves novelty of proposing sustainability concept for evaluating rainfall time series and demonstrated the concept, for the first time, by identifying the most sustainable rainfall series following reliability ( R y), resilience ( R e), and vulnerability ( V y) approach. Box-whisker plots, normal probability plots, and histograms indicated that the annual rainfall of Mandvi and Dayapar stations is relatively more positively skewed and non-normal compared with that of other stations, which is due to the presence of severe outlier and extreme. Results of Shapiro-Wilk test and Lilliefors test revealed that annual rainfall series of all stations significantly deviated from normal distribution. Two parametric t tests and the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test indicated significant non-stationarity in annual rainfall of Rapar station, where the rainfall was also found to be non-homogeneous based on the results of four parametric homogeneity tests. Four trend tests indicated significantly increasing rainfall trends at Rapar and Gandhidham stations. The autocorrelation analysis suggested the presence of persistence of statistically significant nature in rainfall series of Bhachau (3-year time lag), Mundra (1- and 9-year time lag), Nakhatrana (9-year time lag), and Rapar (3- and 4-year time lag). Results of sustainability approach indicated that annual rainfall of Mundra and Naliya stations ( R y = 0.50 and 0.44; R e = 0.47 and 0.47; V y = 0.49 and 0.46, respectively) are the most sustainable and dependable compared with that of other stations. The highest values of sustainability index at Mundra (0.120) and Naliya (0.112) stations confirmed the earlier findings of R y- R e- V y approach. In general, annual rainfall of the study area is less reliable, less resilient, and moderately vulnerable, which emphasizes the need of developing suitable strategies for managing water resources of the area on sustainable basis. Finally, it is recommended that multiple statistical tests (at least two) should be used in time-series modeling for making reliable decisions. Moreover, methodology and findings of the sustainability concept in rainfall time series can easily be adopted in other arid regions of the world.

Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to western tropical Pacific convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Doo Young; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Yoo, Jin-Ho

2015-08-01

The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP Indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index or each MPI. Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by hybrid dynamical-statistical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach compared to the dynamical forecast alone.

[Runoff and sediment yielding processes on red soil engineering accumulation containing gravels by a simulated rainfall experiment].

PubMed

Shi, Qian-hua; Wang, Wen-long; Guo, Ming-ming; Bai, Yun; Deng, Li-qiang; Li, Jian-ming; Li, Yao-lin

2015-09-01

Engineering accumulation formed in production and construction projects is characterized by unique structure and complex material composition. Characteristics of soil erosion on the engineering accumulation significantly differ from those on farmland. An artificially simulated rainfall experiment was carried out to investigate the effects of rainfall intensity on the processes of runoff and sediment yielding on the engineering accumulation of different gravel contents (0%, 10%, 20% and 30%) in red soil regions. Results showed that the initial time of runoff generation decreased with increases in rainfall intensity and gravel content, the decreased amplitudes being about 48.5%-77.9% and 4.2%-34.2%, respectively. The initial time was found to be a power function of rainfall intensity. Both runoff velocity and runoff rate manifested a trend of first rising and then in a steady state with runoff duration. Rainfall intensity was found to be the main factor influencing runoff velocity and runoff rate, whereas the influence of gravel content was not significant. About 10% of gravel content was determined to be a critical value in the influence of gravel content on runoff volume. For the underlying surface of 10% gravel content, the runoff volume was least at rainfall intensity of 1.0 mm · min(-1) and maximum at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). The runoff volume in- creased 10%-60% with increase in rainfall intensity. Sediment concentration showed a sharp decline in first 6 min and then in a stable state in rest of time. Influence of rainfall intensity on sediment concentration decreased as gravel content increased. Gravels could reduce sediment yield significantly at rainfall intensity of greater than 1.0 mm · min(-1). Sediment yield was found to be a linear function of rainfall intensity and gravel content.

Interaction between the effects of evaporation rate and amount of simulated rainfall on development of the free-living stages of Haemonchus contortus.

PubMed

O'Connor, Lauren J; Kahn, Lewis P; Walkden-Brown, Stephen W

2008-08-17

A factorial experiment (3 x 4 x 2 x 3) was conducted in programmable incubators to investigate interaction between the effects of rainfall amount, rainfall distribution and evaporation rate on development of Haemonchus contortus to L3. Sheep faeces containing H. contortus eggs were incubated on sterilised soil under variable temperatures typical of summer in the Northern Tablelands of NSW, Australia. Simulated rainfall was applied in 1 of 3 amounts (12, 24 or 32 mm) and 4 distributions (a single event on the day after deposition, or the same total amount split in 2, 3 or 4 equal events over 2, 3 or 4 days, respectively). Samples were incubated at either a Low or High rate of evaporation (Low: 2.1-3.4 mm/day and High: 3.8-6.1 mm/day), and faeces and soil were destructively sampled at 4, 7 and 14 days post-deposition. Recovery of L3 from the soil (extra-pellet L3) increased over time (up to 0.52% at day 14) and with each increment of rainfall (12 mm: <0.01%; 24 mm: 0.10%; 32 mm: 0.45%) but was reduced under the High evaporation rate (0.01%) compared with the Low evaporation rate (0.31%). All rainfall amounts yielded significantly different recoveries of L3 under Low evaporation rates but there was no difference between the 12 and 24 mm treatments under the High evaporation rate. The distribution of simulated rainfall did not significantly affect recovery of infective larvae. Faecal moisture content was positively associated with L3 recovery, as was the ratio of cumulative precipitation and cumulative evaporation (P/E), particularly when measured in the first 4 days post-deposition. The results show that evaporation rate plays a significant role in regulating the influence of rainfall amount on the success of L3 transmission.

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures by using 3D BIM Technique' [NEMA-12-NH-57] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Rainfall-runoff properties of tephra: Simulated effects of grain-size and antecedent rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robbie; Thomas, Robert E.; Peakall, Jeff; Manville, Vern

2017-04-01

Rain-triggered lahars (RTLs) are a significant and often persistent secondary volcanic hazard at many volcanoes around the world. Rainfall on unconsolidated volcaniclastic material is the primary initiation mechanism of RTLs: the resultant flows have the potential for large runout distances (> 100 km) and present a substantial hazard to downstream infrastructure and communities. RTLs are frequently anticipated in the aftermath of eruptions, but the pattern, timing and scale of lahars varies on an eruption-by-eruption and even catchment-by-catchment basis. This variability is driven by a set of local factors including the grain size distribution, thickness, stratigraphy and spatial distribution of source material in addition to topography, vegetation coverage and rainfall conditions. These factors are often qualitatively discussed in RTL studies based on post-eruption lahar observations or instrumental detections. Conversely, this study aims to move towards a quantitative assessment of RTL hazard in order to facilitate RTL predictions and forecasts based on constrained rainfall, grain size distribution and isopach data. Calibrated simulated rainfall and laboratory-constructed tephra beds are used within a repeatable experimental set-up to isolate the effects of individual parameters and to examine runoff and infiltration processes from analogous RTL source conditions. Laboratory experiments show that increased antecedent rainfall and finer-grained surface tephra individually increase runoff rates and decrease runoff lag times, while a combination of these factors produces a compound effect. These impacts are driven by increased residual moisture content and decreased permeability due to surface sealing, and have previously been inferred from downstream observations of lahars but not identified at source. Water and sediment transport mechanisms differ based on surface grain size distribution: a fine-grained surface layer displayed airborne remobilisation, accretionary pellet formation, rapid surface sealing and infiltration-excess overland flow generation whilst a coarse surface layer demonstrated exclusively rainsplash-driven particle detachment throughout the rainfall simulations. This experimental protocol has the potential to quantitatively examine the effects of a variety of individual parameters in RTL initiation under controlled conditions.

Thermodynamic sensitivities in observed and simulated extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, R. S.; Peters, J. M.

2015-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are responsible for a large fraction of warm-season extreme rainfall events over the continental United States, as well as other midlatitude regions globally. The rainfall production in these MCSs is determined by numerous factors, including the large-scale forcing for ascent, the organization of the convection, cloud microphysical processes, and the surrounding thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Furthermore, heavy-rain-producing MCSs are most common at night, which means that well-studied mechanisms for MCS maintenance and organization such as cold pools (gravity currents) are not always at work. In this study, we use numerical model simulations and recent field observations to investigate the sensitivity of low-level MCS structures, and their influences on rainfall, to the details of the thermodynamic environment. In particular, small alterations to the initial conditions in idealized and semi-idealized simulations result in comparatively large precipitation changes, both in terms of the intensity and the spatial distribution. The uncertainties in the thermodynamic enviroments in the model simulations will be compared with high-resolution observations from the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field experiment in 2015. The results have implications for the paradigms of "surface-based" versus "elevated" convection, as well as for the predictability of warm-season convective rainfall.

[Effect of DMPP on inorganic nitrogen runoff loss from vegetable soil].

PubMed

Yu, Qiao-Gang; Fu, Jian-Rong; Ma, Jun-Wei; Ye, Jing; Ye, Xue-Zhu

2009-03-15

The effect of urea with 1% 3,4-dimethyl pyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on inorganic nitrogen runoff loss from agriculture field was determined in an undisturbed vegetable soil by using the simulated artificial rainfall method. The results show that, during the three simulated artificial rainfall period, the ammonium nitrogen content in the runoff water is increased 1.42, 2.82 and 1.95 times with the DMPP application treatment compared to regular urea treatment, respectively. In the urea with DMPP addition treatment, the nitrate nitrogen content is decreased 70.2%, 59.7% and 52.1% in the three simulated artificial rainfall runoff water, respectively. The nitrite nitrogen content is also decreased 98.7%, 90.6% and 85.6% in the three simulated artificial rainfall runoff water, respectively. The nitrate nitrogen and nitrite nitrogen runoff loss are greatly declined with the DMPP addition in the urea. Especially the nitrite nitrogen is in a significant low level and is near to the treatment with no fertilizer application. The inorganic nitrogen runoff loss is declined by 39.0% to 44.8% in the urea with DMPP addition treatment. So DMPP could be used as an effective nitrification inhibitor to control the soil ammonium oxidation, decline the nitrogen runoff loss, lower the nitrogen transformation risk to the waterbody and be beneficial for the ecological environment.

Modeling effectiveness of management practices for flood mitigation using GIS spatial analysis functions in Upper Cilliwung watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darma Tarigan, Suria

2016-01-01

Flooding is caused by excessive rainfall flowing downstream as cumulative surface runoff. Flooding event is a result of complex interaction of natural system components such as rainfall events, land use, soil, topography and channel characteristics. Modeling flooding event as a result of interaction of those components is a central theme in watershed management. The model is usually used to test performance of various management practices in flood mitigation. There are various types of management practices for flood mitigation including vegetative and structural management practices. Existing hydrological model such as SWAT and HEC-HMS models have limitation to accommodate discrete management practices such as infiltration well, small farm reservoir, silt pits in its analysis due to the lumped structure of these models. Aim of this research is to use raster spatial analysis functions of Geo-Information System (RGIS-HM) to model flooding event in Ciliwung watershed and to simulate impact of discrete management practices on surface runoff reduction. The model was validated using flooding data event of Ciliwung watershed on 29 January 2004. The hourly hydrograph data and rainfall data were available during period of model validation. The model validation provided good result with Nash-Suthcliff efficiency of 0.8. We also compared the RGIS-HM with Netlogo Hydrological Model (NL-HM). The RGIS-HM has similar capability with NL-HM in simulating discrete management practices in watershed scale.

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2018-06-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-08-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB.

Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2018-06-01

Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute to the understanding of the added value in seasonal simulations by RCMs.

Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

2017-08-01

Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute to the understanding of the added value in seasonal simulations by RCMs.

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

Simulation of radar reflectivity and surface measurements of rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandrasekar, V.; Bringi, V. N.

1987-01-01

Raindrop size distributions (RSDs) are often estimated using surface raindrop sampling devices (e.g., disdrometers) or optical array (2D-PMS) probes. A number of authors have used these measured distributions to compute certain higher-order RSD moments that correspond to radar reflectivity, attenuation, optical extinction, etc. Scatter plots of these RSD moments versus disdrometer-measured rainrates are then used to deduce physical relationships between radar reflectivity, attenuation, etc., which are measured by independent instruments (e.g., radar), and rainrate. In this paper RSDs of the gamma form as well as radar reflectivity (via time series simulation) are simulated to study the correlation structure of radar estimates versus rainrate as opposed to RSD moment estimates versus rainrate. The parameters N0, D0 and m of a gamma distribution are varied over the range normally found in rainfall, as well as varying the device sampling volume. The simulations are used to explain some possible features related to discrepancies which can arise when radar rainfall measurements are compared with surface or aircraft-based sampling devices.

Two Distinct Modes in One-Day Rainfall Event during MC3E Field Campaign: Analyses of Disdrometer Observations and WRF-SBM Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Matsui, Toshihisa; Tokay, Ali; Kollias, Pavlos; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-01-01

A unique microphysical structure of rainfall is observed by the surface laser optical Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel) disdrometers on 25 April 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). According to the systematic differences in rainfall rate and bulk effective droplet radius, the sampling data can be divided into two groups; the rainfall mostly from the deep convective clouds has relatively high rainfall rate and large bulk effective droplet radius, whereas the reverse is true for the rainfall from the shallow wrm clouds. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) successfully reproduces the two distinct modes in the observed rainfall microphysical structure. The results show that the up-to-date model can demonstrate how the cloud physics and the weather condition on the day are involved in forming the unique rainfall characteristic.

On storm movement and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemczynowicz, Janusz

Rainfall-runoff models applicable for design and analysis of sewage systems in urban areas are further developed in order to represent better different physical processes going on on an urban catchment. However, one important part of the modelling procedure, the generation of the rainfall input is still a weak point. The main problem is lack of adequate rainfall data which represent temporal and spatial variations of the natural rainfall process. Storm movement is a natural phenomenon which influences urban runoff. However, the rainfall movement and its influence on runoff generation process is not represented in presently available urban runoff simulation models. Physical description of the rainfall movement and its parameters is given based on detailed measurements performed on twelve gauges in Lund, Sweden. The paper discusses the significance of the rainfall movement on the runoff generation process and gives suggestions how the rainfall movement parameters may be used in runoff modelling.

Two distinct modes in one-day rainfall event during MC3E field campaign: Analyses of disdrometer observations and WRF-SBM simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Matsui, Toshihisa; Tokay, Ali; Kollias, Pavlos; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2012-12-01

A unique microphysical structure of rainfall is observed by the surface laser optical Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel) disdrometers on 25 April 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). According to the systematic differences in rainfall rate and bulk effective droplet radius, the sampling data can be divided into two groups; the rainfall mostly from the deep convective clouds has relatively high rainfall rate and large bulk effective droplet radius, whereas the reverse is true for the rainfall from the shallow warm clouds. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) successfully reproduces the two distinct modes in the observed rainfall microphysical structure. The results show that the up-to-date model can demonstrate how the cloud physics and the weather condition on the day are involved in forming the unique rainfall characteristic.

Estimation of the fractional coverage of rainfall in climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Bras, R. L.

1993-01-01

The fraction of the grid cell area covered by rainfall, mu, is an essential parameter in descriptions of land surface hydrology in climate models. A simple procedure is presented for estimating this fraction, based on extensive observations of storm areas and rainfall volumes. Storm area and rainfall volume are often linearly related; this relation can be used to compute the storm area from the volume of rainfall simulated by a climate model. A formula is developed for computing mu, which describes the dependence of the fractional coverage of rainfall on the season of the year, the geographical region, rainfall volume, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the model. The new formula is applied in computing mu over the Amazon region. Significant temporal variability in the fractional coverage of rainfall is demonstrated. The implications of this variability for the modeling of land surface hydrology in climate models are discussed.

Rainfall Stochastic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

2012-04-01

This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series were recorded every ten minutes and hourly, aggregated. Preliminary results show adequate simulation of the main features of rain. Main variables are well simulated for time series of ten minutes, also over one hour precipitation time series, which are those that generate higher rainfall hydrologic design. For coarse scales, less than one hour, rainfall durations are not appropriate under the simulation. A hypothesis may be an excessive number of simulated events, which causes further fragmentation of storms, resulting in an excess of rain "short" (less than 1 hour), and therefore also among rain events, compared with the ones that occur in the actual series.

Using small-scale rainfall simulation to assess temporal changes in pre- and post-fire soil hydrology and erosion: the value of fixed-position plots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Carla S. S.; Shakesby, Rick A.; Bento, Célia P. M.; Walsh, Rory P. D.; Ferreira, António J. D.

2013-04-01

In recent decades, wildfire has become both frequent and severe in southern Europe leading to widespread research into its impacts on soil erosion, soil and water quality. Rainfall simulation has become established as a popular technique to assess these impacts, as it can be conducted under controlled conditions (notably, with respect to rainfall) and is a very cost-effective and rapid way to compare overland flow and suspended sediment generation within burned and unburned sites. Particular advantages are that: (1) results can be obtained before the first post-fire rainfall events; and (2) experiments can reproduce controlled storm events, with similar characteristics to natural rain. Although plot sizes vary (0.09-30m2), most researchers have used < 1m2 plots because of logistical difficulties of setting up larger plots especially in burned areas that may lack good access and local water supplies. Disadvantages with using small plots, however, particularly on burned terrain, include: (1) the difficulty of installing the plots without disturbing the soil; (2) the strong influence of plot boundaries on overland flow and sediment production. Significant replication is generally considered necessary to take account of high variability in results that are due in part to these effects. One response to these problems is a 'fixed plot' approach in which bounded plots are left in place for re-use throughout the study. A problem here, however, would be progressive sediment exhaustion due to the 'island' effect of the plots caused by their isolation from upslope sediment transfer. This paper assesses the usefulness of a repeat-simulation plot approach in assessing temporal change in overland flow and erosion in post-fire situations that minimizes the island effect by partial removal of plot boundaries between surveys. This approach was tested over a 2.5-year period in a small (9 ha) catchment in central Portugal subjected to an experimental fire in 2009. Five rainfall simulation plots 0.25m2 in size were installed close to sediment traps (contributing areas: 498-4238m2) collecting sediment eroded by overland flow caused by natural rainfall. The plots were installed pre-fire and experiments carried out under 'dry' and 'wet' antecedent conditions on six occasions from pre-fire to two years after the fire. The lateral boundaries of each plot were left in place, but the upslope boundary and central (outlet) section of the downslope boundary were removed between surveys and re-installed and sealed each time measurements were carried out. Having fixed positions of plots minimised soil disturbance on each monitoring occasion and meant that, for any given plot, results were directly comparable and gave a more reliable picture of change through time. Removing the upper and lower boundaries of the plots between measurements allowed the soil to undergo processes similar to those on the surrounding slope and reduced the 'island' effect associated with continuously bounded plots. Results from the adjacent sediment traps, which provided a parallel temporal record of hillslope-scale overland flow and sediment redistribution patterns under natural rainfall, are used to judge the usefulness of the in situ simulation plots approach.

Controllability of runoff and soil loss from small plots treated by vinasse-produced biochar.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Harchegani, Mahboobeh Kiani

2016-01-15

Many different amendments, stabilizers, and conditioners are usually applied for soil and water conservation. Biochar is a carbon-enriched substance produced by thermal decomposition of organic material in the absence of oxygen with the goal to be used as a soil amendment. Biochar can be produced from a wide range of biomass sources including straw, wood, manure, and other organic wastes. Biochar has been demonstrated to restore soil fertility and crop production under many conditions, but less is known about the effects of its application on soil erosion and runoff control. Therefore, a rainfall simulation study, as a pioneer research, was conducted to evaluate the performance of the application of vinasse-produced biochar on the soil erosion control of a sandy clay loam soil packed in small-sized runoff 0.25-m(2) plots with 3 replicates. The treatments were (i) no biochar (control), (ii) biochar (8 tha(-1)) application at 24h before the rainfall simulation and (iii) biochar (8 tha(-1)) application at 48 h before the rainfall simulation. Rainfall was applied at 50 mm h(-1) for 15 min. The mean change of effectiveness in time to runoff could be found in biochar application at 24 and 48 h before simulation treatment with rate of +55.10% and +71.73%, respectively. In addition, the mean runoff volume 24 and 48 h before simulation treatments decreased by 98.46% and 46.39%, respectively. The least soil loss (1.12 ± 0.57 g) and sediment concentration (1.44 ± 0.48 gl(-1)) occurred in the biochar-amended soil treated 48 h before the rainfall simulation. In conclusion, the application of vinasse-produced biochar could effectively control runoff and soil loss. This study provided a new insight into the effects of biochar on runoff, soil loss, and sediment control due to water erosion in sandy clay loam soils. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tertiary creep test by ring shear apparatus in predicting initiation time of rainfall-induced-shallow landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.

2010-12-01

Landslides are complex geo-disaters that frequently occur due to certain causes, but only one trigger such as earthquake or heavy rainfall or other related natural phenomenas. A slope failure seldom occurs without any creep deformation. Failure time of a slope as found by Fukuzono (1985) and Siato (1965) based on graphical analysis of extensometer monitoring data through large scale flume test for landslide studies, logarithm of acceleration is proportional to the logarithm of velocity of surface displacement immediately before the failure. It is expressed as d2x/dt2 = A(dx/dt)α, where x is surface displacement, t is time, and A and α are constant. And, Fukuzono (1985, 1989) proposed a simple method of predicting the time of falure by the inverse velocity (1/v) mean. The curve of inverse velocity is concave at 1< α<2, linear at α=2, and convex at α>2. Recently, Minamitani (2007) have researched on mechanism of Tertiary Creep deformation for landslide failure time prediction by increasing shear-stress development in order to understand the story behind the empirical relationship found by senior researcher Fukozono. He found a strong relationshp between constants A and α, expressed as α = 0.1781A+ 1.814. For deeper understanding, this study aims at learning in more detail on mechanism of landslides in tropical soils by ring shear apparatus (invented by DPRI, Disaster Prevention Research Institute) based on Tertiary Creep deformation theory in help issue warning on rainfall-induced landslides through back (pore-water) pressure control tests under combined conditions of particular normal stress and shear stress with pore-water pressure changes to simulate the potential sliding surface condition in the heavy rainfall, which no body experiences conducting such a test series, particularly by applying cyclic and actual groundwater change pattern to the soils. To reach the archivement, serie of back pressure control test were implemented by utilising stress-controlled ring shear apparatus which can control pore pressure, as well as monotonic increase of pore pressure at constant rate. Mixture of sand and clay materials was used to simulate actual landslide potential sliding surface. Repeated 1~5 time shear test for a specimen was also additionally conducted to produce reactivated motion landsliding. As a result, the tests were succeeded to reproduce tertiary creep to failure, through which the logarithm of acceleration-logarithm of velicity relation was found to be concave feature of 1/v trend (of safer side), and alpha value is much smaller than Fukuzono and Minamitani's works (0.3~0.7) by unknown reason. Moreover, trial repeated shear found a scatter of alpha values and the value itself did not show any significant trend of change.

Variable rainfall intensity and tillage effects on runoff, sediment, and carbon losses from a loamy sand under simulated rainfall.

PubMed

Truman, C C; Strickland, T C; Potter, T L; Franklin, D H; Bosch, D D; Bednarz, C W

2007-01-01

The low-carbon, intensively cropped Coastal Plain soils of Georgia are susceptible to runoff, soil loss, and drought. Reduced tillage systems offer the best management tool for sustained row crop production. Understanding runoff, sediment, and chemical losses from conventional and reduced tillage systems is expected to improve if the effect of a variable rainfall intensity storm was quantified. Our objective was to quantify and compare effects of a constant (Ic) intensity pattern and a more realistic, observed, variable (Iv) rainfall intensity pattern on runoff (R), sediment (E), and carbon losses (C) from a Tifton loamy sand cropped to conventional-till (CT) and strip-till (ST) cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Four treatments were evaluated: CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv, each replicated three times. Field plots (n=12), each 2 by 3 m, were established on each treatment. Each 6-m2 field plot received simulated rainfall at a constant (57 mm h(-1)) or variable rainfall intensity pattern for 70 min (12-run ave.=1402 mL; CV=3%). The Iv pattern represented the most frequent occurring intensity pattern for spring storms in the region. Compared with CT, ST decreased R by 2.5-fold, E by 3.5-fold, and C by 7-fold. Maximum runoff values for Iv events were 1.6-fold higher than those for Ic events and occurred 38 min earlier. Values for Etot and Ctot for Iv events were 19-36% and 1.5-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Values for Emax and Cmax for Iv events were 3-fold and 4-fold higher than corresponding values for Ic events. Carbon enrichment ratios (CER) were or=1.0 for CT plots (except for first 20 min). Maximum CER for CT-Ic, CT-Iv, ST-Ic, and ST-Iv were 2.0, 2.2, 1.0, and 1.2, respectively. Transport of sediment, carbon, and agrichemicals would be better understood if variable rainfall intensity patterns derived from natural rainfall were used in rainfall simulations to evaluate their fate and transport from CT and ST systems.

Effects of Animal Diet, Manure Application Rate, and Tillage on Transport of Microorganisms from Manure-Amended Fields ▿

PubMed Central

Durso, Lisa M.; Gilley, John E.; Marx, David B.; Woodbury, Bryan L.

2011-01-01

Manure from cattle fed distillers' grain or corn diets was applied to fields, and the fields were subjected to rainfall simulation tests. Manure was added at three rates on till and no-till plots. Correlations between microbial transport and runoff characteristics were identified. Results indicate that diet affects phage but not bacterial transport from manure-amended fields. PMID:21803913

Quantitative comparison of initial soil erosion processes and runoff generation in Spanish and German vineyards.

PubMed

Rodrigo Comino, J; Iserloh, T; Lassu, T; Cerdà, A; Keestra, S D; Prosdocimi, M; Brings, C; Marzen, M; Ramos, M C; Senciales, J M; Ruiz Sinoga, J D; Seeger, M; Ries, J B

2016-09-15

The aim of this study was to enable a quantitative comparison of initial soil erosion processes in European vineyards using the same methodology and equipment. The study was conducted in four viticultural areas with different characteristics (Valencia and Málaga in Spain, Ruwer-Mosel valley and Saar-Mosel valley in Germany). Old and young vineyards, with conventional and ecological planting and management systems were compared. The same portable rainfall simulator with identical rainfall intensity (40mmh(-1)) and sampling intervals (30min of test duration, collecting the samples at 5-min-intervals) was used over a circular test plot with 0.28m(2). The results of 83 simulations have been analysed and correlation coefficients were calculated for each study area to identify the relationship between environmental plot characteristics, soil texture, soil erosion, runoff and infiltration. The results allow for identification of the main factors related to soil properties, topography and management, which control soil erosion processes in vineyards. The most important factors influencing soil erosion and runoff were the vegetation cover for the ecological German vineyards (with 97.6±8% infiltration coefficients) and stone cover, soil moisture and slope steepness for the conventional land uses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Set-up and calibration of an outdoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator for soil erosion studies at the Masse experimental station (central Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergni, Lorenzo; Todisco, Francesca

2016-04-01

This contribution describes the technical characteristics and the preliminary calibration of a rainfall simulator recently installed by the Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences (Perugia University) at the Masse experimental station located 20 km south of Perugia, in the region of Umbria (central Italy). The site includes some USLE plots of different length λ = 11 and 22 m and width w = 2, 4 and 8 m, oriented parallel to a 16 % slope and kept free of vegetation by frequent ploughing. Since 2008, the station enabled to collect data from more than 80 erosive events, that were mainly used to investigate the relationship between rainfall characteristics and soil loss. The relevant soil loss variability that characterizes erosive storm events with similar overall characteristics (duration and/or depth) can be explained by the different rainfall profile of erosive storms and by the different antecedent soil aggregate stability. To analyse in more detail these aspects, recently, the Masse experimental station has been equipped with a semi-portable rainfall simulator placed over two micro-plots of 1x1 m each, having the same topographic and pedologic conditions of the adjacent USLE plots. The rainfall simulator consists of four full-cone spray nozzles for each micro-plot, placed at the angles of a 0.18-m square, centred over the plot at a height of 2.7 m above the ground. The operating pressure is regulated by pressure regulating valves and checked by pressure gauges mounted in correspondence of each nozzle. An electronic control unit regulates the start and stop of the inlet solenoid valves. A range of rainfall intensities can be achieved, by activating different combinations of nozzles (15 different intensities) also during the same simulation trial. The particular design of the plots allows to collect separately the runoff volume deriving from the plots and the water volume fallen outside of the plot. In this way it is possible to derive, by difference, the actual infiltration volume. The experiments are carried out simultaneously on the two adjacent micro-plots. In particular, this contribution reports the results of the first experimental trials aimed to assess the uniformity attainable by single nozzles and its reproducibility (between plots and in time). The interferences between adjacent nozzles (when they work simultaneously) were also evaluated.

Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niang, C.

2015-12-01

Intraseasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa plays a significant role in the economy of the region and is highly linked to agriculture and water resources. This research study aims to investigate the relationship between Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall over West Africa during the boreal summer in the the state-of-the-art Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations performed by Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). It aims to determine the impact of MJO on rainfall and convection over West Africa and identify the dynamical processes which are involved in the state-of-the-art climate simulations. The simulations show in general good skills in capturing its main characteristics as well as its influence on rainfall over West Africa. On the global scale, most models simulated an eastward spatio-temporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed. However, over West Africa the MJO signal is weak in few of the models although there is a good coherence in the eastward propagation. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as seen in the observation. Furthermore, the results show that strong active convective phase is clearly associated with the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ particularly over coastal Ghana. In assessing the mechanisms which are involved in the above impacts the convectively equatorial coupled waves (CCEW) are analysed separately. The analysis of the longitudinal propagation of zonal wind at 850hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the CCEW are very weak and their extention are very limited beyong West African region. It was found that the westward coupled equatorial Rossby waves are needed to bring out the MJO-convection link over the region and this relationship is well reproduced by all the models. Results also confirmed that it may be possible to predict the anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day with regard to Indian Ocean and AMIP simulations performed well in this regard.

Identification of key climatic factors regulating the transport of pesticides in leaching and to tile drains.

PubMed

Nolan, Bernard T; Dubus, Igor G; Surdyk, Nicolas; Fowler, Hayley J; Burton, Aidan; Hollis, John M; Reichenberger, Stefan; Jarvis, Nicholas J

2008-09-01

Key climatic factors influencing the transport of pesticides to drains and to depth were identified. Climatic characteristics such as the timing of rainfall in relation to pesticide application may be more critical than average annual temperature and rainfall. The fate of three pesticides was simulated in nine contrasting soil types for two seasons, five application dates and six synthetic weather data series using the MACRO model, and predicted cumulative pesticide loads were analysed using statistical methods. Classification trees and Pearson correlations indicated that simulated losses in excess of 75th percentile values (0.046 mg m(-2) for leaching, 0.042 mg m(-2) for drainage) generally occurred with large rainfall events following autumn application on clay soils, for both leaching and drainage scenarios. The amount and timing of winter rainfall were important factors, whatever the application period, and these interacted strongly with soil texture and pesticide mobility and persistence. Winter rainfall primarily influenced losses of less mobile and more persistent compounds, while short-term rainfall and temperature controlled leaching of the more mobile pesticides. Numerous climatic characteristics influenced pesticide loss, including the amount of precipitation as well as the timing of rainfall and extreme events in relation to application date. Information regarding the relative influence of the climatic characteristics evaluated here can support the development of a climatic zonation for European-scale risk assessment for pesticide fate.

A simulation-optimization model for Stone column-supported embankment stability considering rainfall effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deb, Kousik, E-mail: kousik@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in; Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in; Purohit, Sandip, E-mail: sandip.purohit91@gmail.com

Landslide due to rainfall has been and continues to be one of the most important concerns of geotechnical engineering. The paper presents the variation of factor of safety of stone column-supported embankment constructed over soft soil due to change in water level for an incessant period of rainfall. A combined simulation-optimization based methodology has been proposed to predict the critical surface of failure of the embankment and to optimize the corresponding factor of safety under rainfall conditions using an evolutionary genetic algorithm NSGA-II (Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II). It has been observed that the position of water table can be reliablymore » estimated with varying periods of infiltration using developed numerical method. The parametric study is presented to study the optimum factor of safety of the embankment and its corresponding critical failure surface under the steady-state infiltration condition. Results show that in case of floating stone columns, period of infiltration has no effect on factor of safety. Even critical failure surfaces for a particular floating column length remain same irrespective of rainfall duration.« less

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

Preliminary Investigation on the Behavior of Pore Air Pressure During Rainfall Infiltration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Mohamad Ismail, Mohd; Min, Ng Soon; Hasliza Hamzah, Nur; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd; Madun, Aziman; Tajudin, Saiful Azhar Ahmad

2018-04-01

This paper focused on the preliminary investigation of pore air pressure behaviour during rainfall infiltration in order to substantiate the mechanism of rainfall induced slope failure. The actual behaviour or pore air pressure during infiltration is yet to be clearly understood as it is regularly assumed as atmospheric. Numerical modelling of one dimensional (1D) soil column was utilized in this study to provide a preliminary insight of this highlighted uncertainty. Parametric study was performed by using rainfall intensities of 1.85 x 10-3m/s and 1.16 x 10-4m/s applied on glass beads to simulate intense and modest rainfall conditions. Analysis results show that the high rainfall intensity causes more development of pore air pressure compared to low rainfall intensity. This is because at high rainfall intensity, the rainwater cannot replace the pore air smoothly thus confining the pore air. Therefore, the effect of pore air pressure has to be taken into consideration particularly during heavy rainfall.

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

Assessment of measurement errors and dynamic calibration methods for three different tipping bucket rain gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedekar, Vinayak S.; King, Kevin W.; Fausey, Norman R.; Soboyejo, Alfred B. O.; Harmel, R. Daren; Brown, Larry C.

2016-09-01

Three different models of tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRs), viz. HS-TB3 (Hydrological Services Pty Ltd.), ISCO-674 (Isco, Inc.) and TR-525 (Texas Electronics, Inc.), were calibrated in the lab to quantify measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities (5 mm·h- 1 to 250 mm·h- 1) and three different volumetric settings. Instantaneous and cumulative values of simulated rainfall were recorded at 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20-min intervals. All three TBR models showed a substantial deviation (α = 0.05) in measurements from actual rainfall depths, with increasing underestimation errors at greater rainfall intensities. Simple linear regression equations were developed for each TBR to correct the TBR readings based on measured intensities (R2 > 0.98). Additionally, two dynamic calibration techniques, viz. quadratic model (R2 > 0.7) and T vs. 1/Q model (R2 = > 0.98), were tested and found to be useful in situations when the volumetric settings of TBRs are unknown. The correction models were successfully applied to correct field-collected rainfall data from respective TBR models. The calibration parameters of correction models were found to be highly sensitive to changes in volumetric calibration of TBRs. Overall, the HS-TB3 model (with a better protected tipping bucket mechanism, and consistent measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities) was found to be the most reliable and consistent for rainfall measurements, followed by the ISCO-674 (with susceptibility to clogging and relatively smaller measurement errors across a range of rainfall intensities) and the TR-525 (with high susceptibility to clogging and frequent changes in volumetric calibration, and highly intensity-dependent measurement errors). The study demonstrated that corrections based on dynamic and volumetric calibration can only help minimize-but not completely eliminate the measurement errors. The findings from this study will be useful for correcting field data from TBRs; and may have major implications to field- and watershed-scale hydrologic studies.

On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

2010-05-01

Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model. Recently, SPIFTIRE has been coupled to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, which simulates global vegetation dynamics as part of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). This study forms part of on-going work to further improve and test the ability of JULES to accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle and land-atmosphere exchanges under different climates. Using the JULES (ED-SPITFIRE) model driven by observed climate (1901-2002), and focusing on large-scale rainfall gradients in the tropical savannas of west Africa, the Northern Territory (Australia) and central-southern Brazil, this study assesses: i) simulated versus observed vegetation dynamics and distributions, and ii) the relative importance of fire versus rainfall in determining vegetation patterns. A sensitivity analysis approach was used.

Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

2016-04-01

Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled urban setting. Terrestrial factors investigated include altering the physical model's catchment slope (0°- 20°), as well as simulating a number of spatially-varied impermeability and building density/configuration scenarios. Additionally, the influence of different storm dynamics and intensities were investigated. Preliminary results demonstrate that rainfall-runoff responses in the physical modelling environment are highly sensitive to slight increases in catchment gradient and rainfall intensity and that more densely distributed building layouts significantly increase peak flows recorded at the physical model outflow when compared to sparsely distributed building layouts under comparable simulated rainfall conditions.

Evaluating the effectiveness of wood shred and agricultural straw mulches as a treatment to reduce post-wildfire hillslope erosion in southern British Columbia, Canada

Treesearch

P. R. Robichaud; P. Jordan; S. A. Lewis; L. E. Ashmun; S. A. Covert; R. E. Brown

2013-01-01

After the 2009 Terrace Mountain fire near Kelowna, BC, Canada, wood shred and agricultural straw mulch effects on post-fire runoff and sediment yields were compared using three experimental techniques: rainfall simulations on 1-m2 plots, concentrated flow (rill) simulations on 9-m long plots, and sediment yields from natural rainfall on 30-m2 plots. All experimental...

Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

DOE PAGES

Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; ...

2014-03-26

Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved.more » The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.« less

Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

2016-04-01

Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate low flow indices in ungauged sites. The analysis is carried out on 691 French catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological behaviors. The results are validated with a cross-validation procedure and are compared with the ones obtained with GR4J, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, which already provides daily estimations, but involves four parameters that cannot easily be regionalized.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET events on the projected increase of TC frequency in the eastern North Atlantic, highlighting increased exposure of the northeastern United States and Western Europe to storm hazards. Retrospective seasonal forecast experiments demonstrate the skill of HiFLOR in predicting basinwide and regional ET frequency. This skill, however, is not seen in the seasonal prediction of ET rate. More work on the property of signal-to-noise ratio of ET rate is needed.

The Sensitivity of Tropical Squall Lines (GATE and TOGA COARE) to Surface Fluxes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne; Lang, Stephen

1999-01-01

Two tropical squall lines from TOGA COARE and GATE were simulated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model to examine the impact of surface fluxes on tropical squall line development and associated precipitation processes. The important question of how CAPE in clear and cloudy areas is maintained in the tropics is also investigated. Although the cloud structure and precipitation intensity are different between the TOGA COARE and GATE squall line cases, the effects of the surface fluxes on the amount of rainfall and on the cloud development processes are quite similar. The simulated total surface rainfall amount in the runs without surface fluxes is about 67% of the rainfall simulated with surface fluxes. The area where surface fluxes originated was categorized into clear and cloudy regions according to whether there was cloud in the vertical column. The model results indicated that the surface fluxes from the large clear air environment are the dominant moisture source for tropical squall line development even though the surface fluxes in the cloud region display a large peak. The high-energy air from the boundary layer in the clear area is what feeds the convection while the CAPE is removed by the convection. The surface rainfall was only reduced 8 to 9% percent in the simulations without surface fluxes in the cloud region. Trajectory and water budget analysis also indicated that most moisture (92%) was from the boundary layer of the clear air environment.

Modelling runoff on ceramic tile roofs using the kinematic wave equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Alexandre; Abrantes, João; de Lima, João; Lira, Lincoln

2016-04-01

Rainwater harvesting is a water saving alternative strategy that presents many advantages and can provide solutions to address major water resources problems, such as fresh water scarcity, urban stream degradation and flooding. In recent years, these problems have become global challenges, due to climatic change, population growth and increasing urbanisation. Generally, roofs are the first to come into contact with rainwater; thus, they are the best candidates for rainwater harvesting. In this context, the correct evaluation of roof runoff quantity and quality is essential to effectively design rainwater harvesting systems. Despite this, many studies usually focus on the qualitative aspects in detriment of the quantitative aspects. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators have been widely used to investigate rainfall-runoff processes. These studies enabled a detailed exploration and systematic replication of a large range of hydrologic conditions, such as rainfall spatial and temporal characteristics, providing for a fast way to obtain precise and consistent data that can be used to calibrate and validate numerical models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a kinematic wave based numerical model in simulating runoff on sloping roofs, by comparing the numerical results with the ones obtained from laboratory rainfall simulations on a real-scale ceramic tile roof (Lusa tiles). For all studied slopes, simulated discharge hydrographs had a good adjust to observed ones. Coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values were close to 1.0. Particularly, peak discharges, times to peak and peak durations were very well simulated.

Evaluating the use of different precipitation datasets in simulating a flood event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Ozkaya, A.

2016-12-01

Floods caused by convective storms in mountainous regions are sensitive to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. Space-time estimates of rainfall from weather radar, satellites and numerical weather prediction models can be a remedy to represent pattern of the rainfall with some inaccuracy. However, there is a strong need for evaluation of the performance and limitations of these estimates in hydrology. This study aims to provide a comparison of gauge, radar, satellite (Hydro-Estimator (HE)) and numerical weather prediciton model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) precipitation datasets during an extreme flood event (22.11.2014) lasting 40 hours in Samsun-Turkey. For this study, hourly rainfall data from 13 ground observation stations were used in the analyses. This event having a peak discharge of 541 m3/sec created flooding at the downstream of Terme Basin. Comparisons were performed in two parts. First the analysis were performed in areal and point based manner. Secondly, a semi-distributed hydrological model was used to assess the accuracy of the rainfall datasets to simulate river flows for the flood event. Kalman Filtering was used in the bias correction of radar rainfall data compared to gauge measurements. Radar, gauge, corrected radar, HE and WRF rainfall data were used as model inputs. Generally, the HE product underestimates the cumulative rainfall amounts in all stations, radar data underestimates the results in cumulative sense but keeps the consistency in the results. On the other hand, almost all stations in WRF mean statistics computations have better results compared to the HE product but worse than the radar dataset. Results in point comparisons indicated that, trend of the rainfall is captured by the radar rainfall estimation well but radar underestimates the maximum values. According to cumulative gauge value, radar underestimated the cumulative rainfall amount by % 32. Contrary to other datasets, the bias of WRF is positive due to the overestimation of rainfall forecasts. It was seen that radar-based flow predictions demonstrated good potential for successful hydrological modeling. Moreover, flow predictions obtained from bias corrected radar rainfall values produced an increase in the peak flows compared to the ones obtained from radar data itself.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the westerly jet. We end by discussing the mechanism that is proposed to explain the changed EASM seasonality across the Holocene.

Assessment of regional downscaling simulations for long term mean, excess and deficit Indian Summer Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varikoden, Hamza; Mujumdar, M.; Revadekar, J. V.; Sooraj, K. P.; Ramarao, M. V. S.; Sanjay, J.; Krishnan, R.

2018-03-01

This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of dynamical downscaling of summer monsoon (June-September; JJAS) rainfall over heterogeneous regions namely the Western Ghats (WG), Central India (CI) and North-Eastern Region (NER) for long term mean, excess and deficit episodes for the historical period from 1951 to 2005. This downscaling assessment is based on six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) for South Asia (SAS) region, their five driving Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations along with observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Integrated Towards Evaluation for Water Resources (APHRODITE). The analysis reveals an overall reduction of dry bias in rainfall across the regions of Indian sub-continent in most of the downscaled CORDEX-SAS models and in their ensemble mean as compared to that of driving GCMs. The interannual variabilities during historical period are reasonably captured by the ensemble means of CORDEX-SAS simulations with an underestimation of 0.43%, 38% and 52% for the WG, CI and NER, respectively. Upon careful examination of the CORDEX-SAS models and their driving GCMs revealed considerable improvement in the regionally downscaled rainfall. The value addition of dynamical downscaling is apparent over the WG in Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations with an improvement of more than 30% for the long term mean, excess and deficit episodes from their driving GCMs. In the case of NER, the improvement in the downscaled rainfall product is more than 10% for all the episodes. However, the value addition in the CORDEX-SAS simulations for CI region, dominantly influenced by synoptic scale processes, is not clear. Nevertheless, the reduction of dry bias in the complex topographical regions is remarkable. The relative performance of dynamical downscaling of rainfall over complex topography in response to local forcing and orographic lifting depict the value addition (30% over WG and 10% over NER, with a statistical significance of more than 5% level), when compared with the synoptic scale system induced rainfall over the plains of central-India.

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; ...

2018-04-01

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ~25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderatemore » rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.« less

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Timmermans, Ben W.

2018-04-01

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ˜25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present‐Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Timmermans, Ben W.

2018-01-01

Abstract Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ∼25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large‐scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large‐scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large‐scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large‐scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale‐aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade‐offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount. PMID:29861837

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present-Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; O'Brien, Travis A.

Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ~25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderatemore » rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large-scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large-scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large-scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large-scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale-aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade-offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.« less

Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Streamflow Response to Spatially Distributed Precipitation in Two Large Watersheds in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, A. S.; Adera, S.; Niswonger, R. G.; Gardner, M.

2016-12-01

The ability of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to predict peak intensity, peak timing, base flow, and volume of streamflow was examined in Arroyo Hondo (180 km2) and Upper Alameda Creek (85 km2), two sub-watersheds of the Alameda Creek watershed in Northern California. Rainfall-runoff volume ratios vary widely, and can exceed 0.85 during mid-winter flashy rainstorm events. Due to dry antecedent soil moisture conditions, the first storms of the hydrologic year often produce smaller rainfall-runoff volume ratios. Runoff response in this watershed is highly hysteretic; large precipitation events are required to generate runoff following a 4-week period without precipitation. After about 150 mm of cumulative rainfall, streamflow responds quickly to subsequent storms, with variations depending on rainstorm intensity. Inputs to PRMS included precipitation, temperature, topography, vegetation, soils, and land cover data. The data was prepared for input into PRMS using a suite of data processing Python scripts written by the Desert Research Institute and U.S. Geological Survey. PRMS was calibrated by comparing simulated streamflow to measured streamflow at a daily time step during the period 1995 - 2014. The PRMS model is being used to better understand the different patterns of streamflow observed in the Alameda Creek watershed. Although Arroyo Hondo receives more rainfall than Upper Alameda Creek, it is not clear whether the differences in streamflow patterns are a result of differences in rainfall or other variables, such as geology, slope and aspect. We investigate the ability of PRMS to simulate daily streamflow in the two sub-watersheds for a variety of antecedent soil moisture conditions and rainfall intensities. After successful simulation of watershed runoff processes, the model will be expanded using GSFLOW to simulate integrated surface water and groundwater to support water resources planning and management in the Alameda Creek watershed.

A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, Fred; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia

2013-03-01

The effect of vegetation feedback on decadal-scale Sahel rainfall variability is analyzed using an ensemble of climate model simulations in which the atmospheric general circulation model ICTPAGCM ("SPEEDY") is coupled to the dynamic vegetation model VEGAS to represent feedbacks from surface albedo change and evapotranspiration, forced externally by observed sea surface temperature (SST) changes. In the control experiment, where the full vegetation feedback is included, the ensemble is consistent with the observed decadal rainfall variability, with a forced component 60 % of the observed variability. In a sensitivity experiment where climatological vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed from the control experiment, the ensemble of simulations is not consistent with the observations because of strongly reduced amplitude of decadal rainfall variability, and the forced component drops to 35 % of the observed variability. The decadal rainfall variability is driven by SST forcing, but significantly enhanced by land-surface feedbacks. Both, local evaporation and moisture flux convergence changes are important for the total rainfall response. Also the internal decadal variability across the ensemble members (not SST-forced) is much stronger in the control experiment compared with the one where vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed. It is further shown that this positive vegetation feedback is physically related to the albedo feedback, supporting the Charney hypothesis.

Nonstationarities in Catchment Response According to Basin and Rainfall Characteristics: Application to Korean Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Guk; Jung, Il-Won

2015-04-01

It must be acknowledged that application of rainfall-runoff models to simulate rainfall-runoff processes are successful in gauged watershed. However, there still remain some issues that will need to be further discussed. In particular, the quantitive representation of nonstationarity issue in basin response (e.g. concentration time, storage coefficient and roughness) along with ungauged watershed needs to be studied. In this regard, this study aims to investigate nonstationarity in basin response so as to potentially provide useful information in simulating runoff processes in ungauged watershed. For this purpose, HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model was mainly utilized. In addition, this study combined HEC-1 model with Bayesian statistical model to estimate uncertainty of the parameters which is called Bayesian HEC-1 (BHEC-1). The proposed rainfall-runofall model is applied to various catchments along with various rainfall patterns to understand nonstationarities in catchment response. Further discussion about the nonstationarity in catchment response and possible regionalization of the parameters for ungauged watershed are discussed. KEYWORDS: Nonstationary, Catchment response, Uncertainty, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant (13SCIPA01) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA).

A Simple Lightning Assimilation Technique For Improving Retrospective WRF Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain...

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving retrospective WRF simulations.

EPA Science Inventory

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-F...

Effects of Increased Horizontal Resolution on Simulation of the North American Monsoon in the NCAR CAM3: An Evaluation based on Surface, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collier, J. C.; Zhang, G. J.

2006-05-01

Simulation of the North American monsoon system by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is evaluated in its sensitivity to increasing horizontal resolution. For two resolutions, T42 and T85, rainfall is compared to TRMM satellite-derived and surface gauge-based rainfall rates over the U.S. and northern Mexico as well as rainfall accumulations in gauges of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Enhanced Rain Gauge Network (NERN) in the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. Simulated upper-tropospheric mass and wind fields are compared to those from NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The comparison presented herein demonstrates that tropospheric motions associated with the North American monsoon system are sensitive to increasing the horizontal resolution of the model. An increase in resolution from T42 to T85 results in changes to a region of large-scale mid-tropospheric descent found north and east of the monsoon anticyclone. Relative to its simulation at T42, this region extends farther south and west at T85. Additionally, at T85, the subsidence is stronger. Consistent with the differences in large-scale descent, the T85 simulation of CAM3 is anomalously dry over Texas and northeastern Mexico during the peak monsoon months. Meanwhile, the geographic distribution of rainfall over the Sierra Madre Occidental region of Mexico is more satisfactorily simulated at T85 than at T42 for July and August. Moisture import into this region is greater at T85 than at T42 during these months. A focused study of the Sierra Madre Occidental region in particular shows that, in the regional average sense, the timing of the peak of the monsoon is relatively insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, while a phase bias in the diurnal cycle of monsoon-season precipitation is somewhat reduced in the higher-resolution run. At both resolutions, CAM3 poorly simulates the month-to-month evolution of monsoon rainfall over extreme northwestern Mexico and Arizona, though biases are considerably improved at T85.

Simulation of local convective rainfall over metropolitan area on 16 August 2015 using high resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Min, K. H.

2017-12-01

We investigated the ability of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (nested grid spacing at 500 m) in simulating convective precipitation event over the Seoul metropolitan area on 16 August 2015. Intense rainfall occurred from 0930 UTC to 1030 UTC and subsequent trailing precipitation lasted until 1400 UTC. The synoptic condition for the convective event was characterized by a large value of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at the outer edge of a meso-high pressure system. Observational analysis showed that triggering mechanism for convective rainfall was provided by the convergence of northeasterly wind which was driven by a cold pool in the northeastern Kyonggi province. The cold pool formed after heavy rain occurred in northeastern Kyonggi province at 0500UTC. Several experiments were performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of different initial conditions (IC12, IC18, IC00, IC06) and the impact of data assimilation (IC06A) on simulating the convective event. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) appeared to vary widely among the experiments, depending on the timing of ICs that were chosen. QPF amount was underestimated in all experiments when data assimilation was not performed. Among the four experiments, QPF amounts and locations were better simulated in the 1200 UTC 15 August (IC12) run due to large values of CAPE in late afternoon and the presence of low-level convergence zone in the metropolitan area. Although 0600 UTC 16 August (IC06) run simulated the largest CAPE in late afternoon, the location and amount of heavy rainfall were significantly different from observations. IC06 did not simulate the convergence of low-level wind associated with the mesoscale cold pool. However, when assimilation of surface observations and radar data at 0600 UTC was performed (IC06A), the simulation reproduced the location and amount of rainfall reasonably well, indicating that high-resolution NWP model with data assimilation can predict the local convective precipitation event with a short-life time (1 3 hours) effectively within 6 hours.

An integrated system for rainfall induced shallow landslides modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Rigon, Riccardo; Versace, Pasquale

2014-05-01

Rainfall induced shallow landslides (RISL) cause significant damages involving loss of life and properties. Predict susceptible locations for RISL is a complex task that involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geomorphology, statistic. Usually to accomplish this task two main approaches are used: statistical or physically based model. In this work an open source (OS), 3-D, fully distributed hydrological model was integrated in an OS modeling framework (Object Modeling System). The chain is closed by linking the system to a component for safety factor computation with infinite slope approximation able to take into account layered soils and suction contribution to hillslope stability. The model composition was tested for a case study in Calabria (Italy) in order to simulate the triggering of a landslide happened in the Cosenza Province. The integration in OMS allows the use of other components such as a GIS to manage inputs-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. Finally, model performances were quantified by comparing modelled and simulated trigger time. This research is supported by Ambito/Settore AMBIENTE E SICUREZZA (PON01_01503) project.

Simulation of the erosion and drainage development of Loess surface based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chun; Tang, Guoan; Ge, Shanshan; Li, Zhanbin; Zhou, Jieyu

2006-10-01

The research probes into the temporal-spatial process of drainage development of Loess Plateau on the basis of a carefully designed experiment. In the experiment, the development of a simulated loess watershed is tested under the condition of lab-simulated rainfall. A close-range photogrammetry survey is employed to establish a series of high precision and resolution DEM (Digit Elevation Model) of the simulated loess surface. Based on the established DEM, the erosion loss, the slope distribution, the topographic index , the gully-brink, and the drainage networks are all derived and discussed through comparison analysis and experimental validation. All the efforts aim at revealing the process and mechanism of erosion and drainage development of loess surface .This study demonstrates: 1) the stimulation result can effectively reflect the truth if those experimental conditions, i.e. loess soil structure, simulated rainfall, are adjusted in accord with true situation; 2) the remarkable character of the erosion and drainage up-growth of loess surface include the drainage traced to the source, the increased of the drainage's density, the enlarged of gully, the durative variety of multiple terrain factor's mean value and its distribution, such as slope and topographic index; 3) The slope spectrum is the more felicitous terrain factor for depicting the erosion and drainage development of loess surface, including the rule of erosion and evolution process. It is the new way and mean for studying the loess physiognomy.

The effects of simulated rainfall on immature population dynamics of Aedes albopictus and female oviposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Hamady; Rahman, G. M. Saifur; Abu Hassan, A.; Che Salmah, M. R.; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Boots, Michael; Sazaly, Abubakar

2012-01-01

Larvae of Aedes albopictus Skuse typically inhabit natural and artificial containers. Since these larval habitats are replenished by rainfall, Ae. albopictus may experience increased loss of immature stages in areas with high levels of rainfall. In this study, we investigated the effects of rainfall and container water level on population density, and oviposition activity of Ae. albopictus. In field and laboratory experiments, we found that rainfall resulted in the flushing of breeding habitats. Excess rain negatively impacted larval and pupal retention, especially in small habitats. When filled with water to overflowing, container habitats were significantly repellent to ovipositing females. Taken together, these data suggest that rainfall triggers population loss of Ae. albopictus and related species through a direct detrimental effect (flushing out) and an indirect effect (ovipositional repellency).

Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs.

PubMed

Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2016-12-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the human influence on intensity for Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

Assessing the effect of biochar on erosion by using a high precision rainfall simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, Nina; Mayer, Marius; Fister, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Numerus studies have explored the effect of biochar as a soil amendment and its beneficial effects on different soil properties. Adding biochar to soils might also act as a long-term carbon sink, which would mitigate the anthropogenic climate change. However, there are limitations regarding the current process knowledge on the effects of biochar on soil erosion and its erodibility. First test results point towards lower erosion rates of the substrates, which were enriched with biochar. In contrast, biochar concurrently shows relatively high erosion rates due to its lower bulk density, which makes it more susceptible to erosion. However, the number of conducted experiments does not yet allow quantitative statements. The overall objectives of this study are to gain insight into the process knowledge of erodibility of soils with incorporated biochar, and to develop new techniques for their observation. A drip type rainfall simulator is used on a microscale flume (0.2m2) to be able to control and monitor the thin surface flows and rainfall characteristics precisely. Two different types of biochars (high and low temperature pyrolysis) are used in combination with different substrates ranging from pure sand to naturally developed soils. Depending on the particle size and density of the biochar, different erosion rates can be observed. Particle analysis of the eroded material produces insights into which particle sizes and forms are preferably eroded. Since differentiation between eroded soil organic matter and biochar is very difficult without the use of heavy acids, two new methods are being developed and tested to monitor erosion rates of biochar. Comparing the original substrate with the eroded sediment by means of photogrammetry and isotope analysis, it should be possible to infer how much biochar was discharged and to assess the actual particle movement on the erosion flume. The results of this study could provide guidelines for the types of biochar that should be incorporated into fields as well as to calculate the potential monetary loss due to biochar discharge through rainfall events.

Effect of Forest Age on Rainwater Infiltration in the Lowland Humid Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempema, E. W.; Mojica, A.; Litt, G.; Carey, A. M.; Ogden, F. L.

2015-12-01

We are working in the headwaters of the Rio Agua Salud catchment in central Panama to test the hypothesis that varying land uses, including time since afforestation, have significant impacts on rainfall infiltration, runoff generation and groundwater recharge. Increased infiltration and groundwater recharge during the wet season may result in increased groundwater flow during the dry season, the "sponge effect hypothesis". We irrigate a 6m by 2m test plot with slightly saline water at varying applied rainfall intensities using an ARS-type rainfall simulator, which has an oscillating boom mounted 2m above the forest floor, and four spray nozzles. We install 10cm tall lawn edging at the bottom of the test plot to direct surface water runoff to a small flume where runoff rates are recorded over time. In addition, we use time lapse ERI (electrical resistivity imaging) to map the vertical and downslope flow paths. We add NaCl to the applied water at a concentration of 200 mg/l, tagged with 10 mg/l LiBr as a salinity/conductivity contrast. Because ERI is highly sensitivity to changes in the electrical conductivity of soils and solute, we obtain a clear time-lapse image of flow path and bulk flow velocities. In this presentation we compare and contrast results of observations collected in an actively grazed cattle pasture adjacent ~10-12 year and >25 year old secondary forest plots using data collected during the 2015 wet season.

Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-07-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

Removal Effectiveness of Co-mingling Off-site Flows with FDOT Right-of-Way Stormwater : [Summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-10

Because designers have many options in designing runoff systems, the researchers studied and simulated many scenarios. They considered five Florida regions, each with a characteristic rainfall pattern. For each location, assuming rainfall of one inch...

Runoff and soil erosion from two rangeland sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Historically over 50 years of rainfall/runoff research using rainfall simulators has been conducted at various rangeland sites in the West, however these sites rarely have consecutive yearly measurements. This limits the understanding of dynamic annual conditions and the interactions of grazing, pla...

Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the rainfall of each event is distributed through the different sub-catchments using the spatial patterns calculated in the SPAZM precipitation reanalysis (Gottardi et al., 2012) for comparable situations of the 1948-2005 period. Corresponding runoffs are calculated with the hydrological models and aggregated to compute the discharge at the outlet of the main catchment. A complete distribution of flood discharges is finally computed. This method is illustrated with the example of the Durance at Serre-Ponçon catchment (south of French Alps, 3600 km2) which has been divided in four sub-catchements. The proposed approach is compared with the "classical" SCHADEX approach applied on the whole catchment. References: Garçon, R. (1996). Prévision opérationnelle des apports de la Durance à Serre-Ponçon à l'aide du modèle MORDOR. Bilan de l'année 1994-1995. La Houille Blanche, (5), 71-76. Gottardi, F., Obled, C., Gailhard, J., & Paquet, E. (2012). Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns: Application over French mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432, 154-167. Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R., & Gailhard, J. (2013). The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37.

Analysis of the variation of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeimetz, Fränz; Garcìa, Javier; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.

2016-04-01

In numerous countries of the world (USA, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland,…), the dam safety verifications for extreme floods are realized by referring to the so called Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this PMF is determined based on the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). The PMF estimation is performed with a hydrological simulation model by routing the PMP. The PMP-PMF simulation is normally event based; therefore, if no further information is known, the simulation needs assumptions concerning the initial soil conditions such as saturation or snow cover. In addition, temperature series are also of interest for the PMP-PMF simulations. Temperature values can not only be deduced from temperature measurement but also using the temperature gradient method, the 0°C isothermal altitude can lead to temperature estimations on the ground. For practitioners, the usage of the isothermal altitude for referring to temperature is convenient and simpler because one value can give information over a large region under the assumption of a certain temperature gradient. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events is aimed here and based on meteorological soundings from the two sounding stations Payerne (CH) and Milan (I). Furthermore, hourly rainfall and temperature data are available from 110 pluviometers spread over the Swiss territory. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude is undertaken for different precipitation durations based on the meteorological measurements mentioned above. The results show that on average, the isothermal altitude tends to decrease during the rainfall events and that a correlation between the duration of the altitude loss and the duration of the rainfall exists. A significant difference in altitude loss is appearing when the soundings from Payerne and Milan are compared.

Quantitative Assessment on Anthropogenic Contributions to the Rainfall Extremes Associated with Typhoon Morakot (2009)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. T.; Lo, S. H.; Wang, C. C.; Tsuboki, K.

2017-12-01

More than 2000 mm rainfall occurred over southern Taiwan when a category 1 Typhoon Morakot pass through Taiwan in early August 2009. Entire village and hundred of people were buried by massive mudslides induced by record-breaking precipitation. Whether the past anthropogenic warming played a significant role in such extreme event remained very controversial. On one hand, people argue it's nearly impossible to attribute an individual extreme event to global warming. On the other hand, the increase of heavy rainfall is consistent with the expected effects of climate change on tropical cyclone. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot, we adapt an existing probabilistic event attribution framework to simulate a `world that was' and compare it with an alternative condition, 'world that might have been' that removed the historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. One limitation for applying such approach to high-impact weather system is that it will require models capable of capturing the essential processes lead to the studied extremes. Using a cloud system resolving model that can properly simulate the complicated interactions between tropical cyclone, large-scale background, topography, we first perform the ensemble `world that was' simulations using high resolution ECMWF YOTC analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the analysis to `world that might have been conditions' by removing the regional atmospheric and oceanic forcing due to human influences estimated from the CMIP5 model ensemble mean conditions between all forcing and natural forcing only historical runs. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible contribution of anthropogenic forcing to changes in the likelihood of heavy rainfall associated Typhoon Morakot in early August 2009.

Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

2014-12-01

The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953, Republic of Korea.

Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

2014-12-01

Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

Fluometuron and pendimethalin runoff from strip and conventionally tilled cotton in the southern atlantic coastal plain.

PubMed

Potter, Thomas L; Truman, Clint C; Bosch, David D; Bednarz, Craig

2004-01-01

In the Atlantic Coastal Plain region of southern Georgia (USA), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) acreage increased threefold in the past decade. To more effectively protect water quality in the region, best management practices are needed that reduce pesticide runoff from fields in cotton production. This study compared runoff of two herbicides, fluometuron [N,N-dimethyl-N'-[3-(trifluoromethyl)-phenyl]-urea] and pendimethalin [N-(1-ethylpropyl)-3,4-dimethyl-2,6-dinitro-benzenamine], from plots in strip-tillage (ST) and conventional-tillage (CT) management near Tifton, GA. Rainfall simulations were conducted one day after preemergence herbicide applications to 0.0006-ha plots and runoff from 0.15-ha plots due to natural rainfall following preemergence pendimethalin and fluometuron and postemergence fluometuron use was monitored. Pendimethalin runoff was greater under CT than ST due to strong pendimethalin soil sorption and higher erosion and runoff under CT. The highest losses, 1.3% of applied in CT and 0.22% of applied in ST, were observed during rainfall simulations conducted 1 DAT. Fluometuron runoff from natural rainfall was substantially lower from ST than from CT plots but the trend was reversed in rainfall simulations. In all studies, fluometuron runoff was also relatively low (<1% of applied), and on plots under natural rainfall, desmethylfluometuron (DMF) represented about 50% of total fluometuron runoff. Fluometuron's relatively low runoff rate appeared linked to its rapid leaching, and high DMF detection rates in runoff support DMF inclusion in fluometuron risk assessments. Results showed that ST has the potential to reduce runoff of both herbicides, but fluometuron leaching may be a ground water quality concern.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further exacerbate the precipitation extremes, whereas those in the Baiu region lead to weaker changes of these extremes.

Effect of Erosion on Productivity in Subtropical Red Soil Hilly Region: A Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Study by Simulated Rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Zeng, Guangming; Nie, Xiaodong; Ma, Wenming; Yu, Wei; Guo, Wang; Zhang, Jiachao

2013-01-01

The effects of water erosion (including long-term historical erosion and single erosion event) on soil properties and productivity in different farming systems were investigated. A typical sloping cropland with homogeneous soil properties was designed in 2009 and then protected from other external disturbances except natural water erosion. In 2012, this cropland was divided in three equally sized blocks. Three treatments were performed on these blocks with different simulated rainfall intensities and farming methods: (1) high rainfall intensity (1.5 - 1.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; (2) low rainfall intensity (0.5 - 0.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; and (3) low rainfall intensity, tillage operation. All of the blocks were divided in five equally sized subplots along the slope to characterize the three-year effects of historical erosion quantitatively. Redundancy analysis showed that the effects of long-term historical erosion significantly caused most of the variations in soil productivity in no-tillage and low rainfall erosion intensity systems. The intensities of the simulated rainfall did not exhibit significant effects on soil productivity in no-tillage systems. By contrast, different farming operations induced a statistical difference in soil productivity at the same single erosion intensity. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was the major limiting variable that influenced soil productivity. Most explanations of long-term historical erosion for the variation in soil productivity arose from its sharing with SOC. SOC, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were found as the regressors of soil productivity because of tillage operation. In general, this study provided strong evidence that single erosion event could also impose significant constraints on soil productivity by integrating with tillage operation, although single erosion is not the dominant effect relative to the long-term historical erosion. Our study demonstrated that an effective management of organic carbon pool should be the preferred option to maintain soil productivity in subtropical red soil hilly region. PMID:24147090

Meteorological impact assessment of possible large scale irrigation in Southwest Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ter Maat, H. W.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Ohba, R.; Ueda, H.; Bisselink, B.; Bauer, T.

2006-11-01

On continental to regional scales feedbacks between landuse and landcover change and climate have been widely documented over the past 10-15 years. In the present study we explore the possibility that also vegetation changes over much smaller areas may affect local precipitation regimes. Large scale (˜ 10 5 ha) irrigated plantations in semi-arid environments under particular conditions may affect local circulations and induce additional rainfall. Capturing this rainfall 'surplus' could then reduce the need for external irrigation sources and eventually lead to self-sustained water cycling. This concept is studied in the coastal plains in South West Saudi Arabia where the mountains of the Asir region exhibit the highest rainfall of the peninsula due to orographic lifting and condensation of moisture imported with the Indian Ocean monsoon and with disturbances from the Mediterranean Sea. We use a regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) forced by ECMWF analysis data to resolve the effect of complex surface conditions in high resolution (Δ x = 4 km). After validation, these simulations are analysed with a focus on the role of local processes (sea breezes, orographic lifting and the formation of fog in the coastal mountains) in generating rainfall, and on how these will be affected by large scale irrigated plantations in the coastal desert. The validation showed that the model simulates the regional and local weather reasonably well. The simulations exhibit a slightly larger diurnal temperature range than those captured by the observations, but seem to capture daily sea-breeze phenomena well. Monthly rainfall is well reproduced at coarse resolutions, but appears more localized at high resolutions. The hypothetical irrigated plantation (3.25 10 5 ha) has significant effects on atmospheric moisture, but due to weakened sea breezes this leads to limited increases of rainfall. In terms of recycling of irrigation gifts the rainfall enhancement in this particular setting is rather insignificant.

Site-specific high-resolution models of the monsoon for Africa and Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryson, R. A.; Bryson, R. U.

2000-11-01

Using the macrophysical climate model of Bryson [Bryson, R.A., 1992. A macrophysical model of the Holocene intertropical convergence and jetstream positions and rainfall for the Saharan region. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 47, pp. 247-258], it is possible to calculate the monthly latitude of the jetstream and the latitude of the subtropical anticyclones. From these and modern climatic data, it is possible to model the two-century mean latitude of the intertropical convergence (ITC) month by month and estimate the monthly monsoon rainfall using the ITC-Rainfall model of Ilesanmi [Ilesanmi, O.O., 1971. An empirical formulation of an ITD rainfall model for the tropics — a case study of Nigeria. J. Appl. Meteorol., 10, pp. 882-891] and similar relationships. Input to this model is only calculated radiation and atmospheric optical depth estimated from a database of global volcanicity. Recent work has shown that it is possible to extend these estimates to both precipitation and temperature at specific sites, even in mountainous terrain. Testing of the model against archaeological records and climatic proxies is now underway, as well as refining the fundamental model. Preliminary indications are that the timing of fluctuations in the local climate is very well modeled. Especially well matched are the modeled Nile flood based on calculated rainfall on the Blue and White Nile watersheds and the level of Lake Moeris [Hassan, F., 1985. Holocene lakes and prehistoric settlements of the Western Faiyum, Egypt. J. Archaeol. Res., 13, pp. 483-501]. Modeled precipitation histories for specific sites in China, Thailand, the Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa will be presented and contrasted with the simulated rainfall history of Mesopotamia.

Probability analysis for consecutive-day maximum rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City (south India, Asia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabarish, R. Mani; Narasimhan, R.; Chandhru, A. R.; Suribabu, C. R.; Sudharsan, J.; Nithiyanantham, S.

2017-05-01

In the design of irrigation and other hydraulic structures, evaluating the magnitude of extreme rainfall for a specific probability of occurrence is of much importance. The capacity of such structures is usually designed to cater to the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall during its lifetime. In this study, an extreme value analysis of rainfall for Tiruchirapalli City in Tamil Nadu was carried out using 100 years of rainfall data. Statistical methods were used in the analysis. The best-fit probability distribution was evaluated for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days of continuous maximum rainfall. The goodness of fit was evaluated using Chi-square test. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that log-Pearson type III method is the overall best-fit probability distribution for 1-day maximum rainfall and consecutive 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series of Tiruchirapalli. To be reliable, the forecasted maximum rainfalls for the selected return periods are evaluated in comparison with the results of the plotting position.

The significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow: A synthetic analysis at the Upper Lee catchment, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; McIntyre, Neil; Wheater, Howard

2017-04-01

Rainfall, one of the main inputs in hydrological modeling, is a highly heterogeneous process over a wide range of scales in space, and hence the ignorance of the spatial rainfall information could affect the simulated streamflow. Calibration of hydrological model parameters is rarely a straightforward task due to parameter equifinality and parameters' 'nature' to compensate for other uncertainties, i.e. structural and forcing input. In here, we analyse the significance of spatial variability of rainfall on streamflow as a function of catchment scale and type, and antecedent conditions using the continuous time, semi-distributed PDM hydrological model at the Upper Lee catchment, UK. The impact of catchment scale and type is assessed using 11 nested catchments ranging in scale from 25 to 1040 km2, and further assessed by artificially changing the catchment characteristics and translating these to model parameters with uncertainty using model regionalisation. Synthetic rainfall events are introduced to directly relate the change in simulated streamflow to the spatial variability of rainfall. Overall, we conclude that the antecedent catchment wetness and catchment type play an important role in controlling the significance of the spatial distribution of rainfall on streamflow. Results show a relationship between hydrograph characteristics (streamflow peak and volume) and the degree of spatial variability of rainfall for the impermeable catchments under dry antecedent conditions, although this decreases at larger scales; however this sensitivity is significantly undermined under wet antecedent conditions. Although there is indication that the impact of spatial rainfall on streamflow varies as a function of catchment scale, the variability of antecedent conditions between the synthetic catchments seems to mask this significance. Finally, hydrograph responses to different spatial patterns in rainfall depend on assumptions used for model parameter estimation and also the spatial variation in parameters indicating the need of an uncertainty framework in such investigation.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing mechanisms, which are very helpful for calibration of paleoclimate models and prediction of future precipitation changes in East Asia in the scenario of global warming.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Observed Regional Climate Variability and Evaluating Model Performance: Focus on North African Rainfall in CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

North (N.) African rainfall is characterized by dramatic interannual to decadal variability with serious socio-economic ramifications. The Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM) region experienced a dramatic shift to persistent drought by the late 1960s, while the Horn of Africa (HOA) underwent drying since the 1990s. Large disagreementregarding the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African hydrologic variability exists among modeling studies, leading to notable spread in Sahel summer rainfall projections for this century among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall and establish a benchmark for model evaluation, a statistical method, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, is validated and applied to observations and a control run from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study represents the first time that the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall were evaluated and systematically compared between observations and model simulations. CESM and the observations consistently agree that tropical oceanic modes are the dominant controls of N. African rainfall. During the monsoon season, CESM and observations agree that an anomalously warm eastern tropical Pacific shifts the Walker Circulation eastward, with its descending branch supporting Sahel drying. CESM and the observations concur that a warmer tropical eastern Atlantic favors a southward-shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone, which intensifies WAM monsoonal rainfall. An observed reduction in Sahel rainfall accompanies this enhanced WAM rainfall, yet is confined to the Atlantic in CESM. During the short rains, both observations and CESM indicate that a positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode [anomalously warm (cold) in western (eastern) Indian] enhances HOA rainfall. The observed IOD impacts are limited to the short rains, while the simulated impacts are year-round.

Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutu, S.; Kramer, S.; Barry, D. A.; Roudier, P.

2012-12-01

Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today's concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions. Consequently, the choice of a proper buildup/washoff model, with calibrated site-specific coefficients, is a major factor in modeling future runoff concentrations from contaminated urban surfaces.

Evaluating hourly rainfall characteristics over the U.S. Great Plains in dynamically downscaled climate model simulations using NASA-Unified WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Huikyo; Waliser, Duane E.; Ferraro, Robert; Iguchi, Takamichi; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Tian, Baijun; Loikith, Paul C.; Wright, Daniel B.

2017-07-01

Accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events remains a challenge in climate models. This study utilizes hourly precipitation data from ground stations and satellite instruments to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model at horizontal resolutions of 4, 12, and 24 km over the Great Plains of the United States. We also examined the sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to different spectral nudging approaches and the cumulus parameterizations. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as an hourly diurnal cycle of precipitation and a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between duration and peak intensity of precipitation events over the Great Plains in summer. We calculated a JPDF for each data set and the overlapping area between observed and simulated JPDFs to measure the similarity between the two JPDFs. Comparison of the diurnal precipitation cycles between observations and simulations does not reveal the added value of high-resolution simulations. However, the performance of NU-WRF simulations measured by the JPDF metric strongly depends on horizontal resolution. The simulation with the highest resolution of 4 km shows the best agreement with the observations in simulating duration and intensity of wet spells. Spectral nudging does not affect the JPDF significantly. The effect of cumulus parameterizations on the JPDFs is considerable but smaller than that of horizontal resolution. The simulations with lower resolutions of 12 and 24 km show reasonable agreement but only with the high-resolution observational data that are aggregated into coarse resolution and spatially averaged.

A Coupled Approach with Stochastic Rainfall-Runoff Simulation and Hydraulic Modeling for Extreme Flood Estimation on Large Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, E.

2015-12-01

The SCHADEX method aims at estimating the distribution of peak and daily discharges up to extreme quantiles. It couples a precipitation probabilistic model based on weather patterns, with a stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation process using a conceptual lumped model. It allows exploring an exhaustive set of hydrological conditions and watershed responses to intense rainfall events. Since 2006, it has been widely applied in France to about one hundred watersheds for dam spillway design, and also aboard (Norway, Canada and central Europe among others). However, its application to large watersheds (above 10 000 km²) faces some significant issues: spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and hydrological processes and flood peak damping due to hydraulic effects (flood plains, natural or man-made embankment) being the more important. This led to the development of an extreme flood simulation framework for large and heterogeneous watersheds, based on the SCHADEX method. Its main features are: Division of the large (or main) watershed into several smaller sub-watersheds, where the spatial homogeneity of the hydro-meteorological processes can reasonably be assumed, and where the hydraulic effects can be neglected. Identification of pilot watersheds where discharge data are available, thus where rainfall-runoff models can be calibrated. They will be parameters donors to non-gauged watersheds. Spatially coherent stochastic simulations for all the sub-watersheds at the daily time step. Identification of a selection of simulated events for a given return period (according to the distribution of runoff volumes at the scale of the main watershed). Generation of the complete hourly hydrographs at each of the sub-watersheds outlets. Routing to the main outlet with hydraulic 1D or 2D models. The presentation will be illustrated with the case-study of the Isère watershed (9981 km), a French snow-driven watershed. The main novelties of this method will be underlined, as well as its perspectives and future improvements.

Climate change effects on landslides in southern B.C.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, M.

2009-04-01

Two mechanisms that contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in coastal British Columbia are ante¬cedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide fre¬quencies. In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short- term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Colum¬bia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating sta¬tistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall. The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenar¬ios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in sim¬ulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means. The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.

Simulated Rainfall experiments on burned areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rulli, Maria Cristina

2010-05-01

Simulated Rainfall experiments were carried out in a Mediterranean area located in Italy, immediately after a forest fire occurrence, to evaluate the effects of forest fire on soil hydraulic properties, runoff and erosion. The selected study area was frequently affected by fire in the last years. Two adjacent 30 mq plots were set up with common physiographic features, and the same fire history, except for the last fire, which burned only one of them. Since both plots were previously subject to the passage of fire 6 years before the last one, one compares the hydrologic response and erosion of an area recently burned (B00) with that of an area burnt 6 years before (B06). Several rainfall simulations were carried out considering different pre-event soil moisture conditions where each rainfall simulation consisted of a single 60 minute application of rainfall with constant intensity of about 76 mm/h. The results show runoff ratio, evaluated for different pre-event soil moisture conditions, ranging from 0 to 2% for B06 plot, and from 21 to 41% for B00. Runoff ratio for the recently burned plot was 60 times higher than for the plot burned six years before, under wet conditions, and 20 times higher, under very wet conditions. A large increase in sediment production also was measured in B00 plot, as compared with that in B06 plot. Suspended sediment yield from B00 plot was more than two orders of magnitude higher than that from B06 plot in all the simulated events. The high runoff and soil losses measured immediately after burning indicate that effective post-fire rehabilitation programs must be carried out to reduce flood risk and soil erosion in recently burned areas. However, the results for the plot burned six year prior show that recovery of the hydrological properties of the soil occurs after the transient post fire modification.

Climate variability in Andalusia (southern Spain) during the period 1701-1850 based on documentary sources: evaluation and comparison with climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Montávez Gómez, J. P.

2012-01-01

In this work, a reconstruction of climatic conditions in Andalusia (southern Iberian Peninsula) during the period 1701-1850, as well as an evaluation of its associated uncertainties, is presented. This period is interesting because it is characterized by a minimum in solar irradiance (Dalton Minimum, around 1800), as well as intense volcanic activity (for instance, the eruption of Tambora in 1815), at a time when any increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations was of minor importance. The reconstruction is based on the analysis of a wide variety of documentary data. The reconstruction methodology is based on counting the number of extreme events in the past, and inferring mean value and standard deviation using the assumption of normal distribution for the seasonal means of climate variables. This reconstruction methodology is tested within the pseudoreality of a high-resolution paleoclimate simulation performed with the regional climate model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. The results show that the reconstructions are influenced by the reference period chosen and the threshold values used to define extreme values. This creates uncertainties which are assessed within the context of climate simulation. An ensemble of reconstructions was obtained using two different reference periods (1885-1915 and 1960-1990) and two pairs of percentiles as threshold values (10-90 and 25-75). The results correspond to winter temperature, and winter, spring and autumn rainfall, and they are compared with simulations of the climate model for the considered period. The mean value of winter temperature for the period 1781-1850 was 10.6 ± 0.1 °C (11.0 °C for the reference period 1960-1990). The mean value of winter rainfall for the period 1701-1850 was 267 ± 18 mm (224 mm for 1960-1990). The mean values of spring and autumn rainfall were 164 ± 11 and 194 ± 16 mm (129 and 162 mm for 1960-1990, respectively). Comparison of the distribution functions corresponding to 1790-1820 and 1960-1990 indicates that during the Dalton Minimum the frequency of dry and warm (wet and cold) winters was lower (higher) than during the reference period: temperatures were up to 0.5 °C lower than the 1960-1990 value, and rainfall was 4% higher.

The capacity of radar, crowdsourced personal weather stations and commercial microwave links to monitor small scale urban rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, R.; de Vos, L. W.; Leijnse, H.; Overeem, A.; Raupach, T. H.; Berne, A.

2017-12-01

For the purpose of urban rainfall monitoring high resolution rainfall measurements are desirable. Typically C-band radar can provide rainfall intensities at km grid cells every 5 minutes. Opportunistic sensing with commercial microwave links yields rainfall intensities over link paths within cities. Additionally, recent developments have made it possible to obtain large amounts of urban in situ measurements from weather amateurs in near real-time. With a known high resolution simulated rainfall event the accuracy of these three techniques is evaluated, taking into account their respective existing layouts and sampling methods. Under ideal measurement conditions, the weather station networks proves to be most promising. For accurate estimation with radar, an appropriate choice for Z-R relationship is vital. Though both the microwave links and the weather station networks are quite dense, both techniques will underestimate rainfall if not at least one link path / station captures the high intensity rainfall peak. The accuracy of each technique improves when considering rainfall at larger scales, especially by increasing time intervals, with the steepest improvements found in microwave links.

Cluster analysis for characterization of rainfalls and CSO behaviours in an urban drainage area of Tokyo.

PubMed

Yu, Yang; Kojima, Keisuke; An, Kyoungjin; Furumai, Hiroaki

2013-01-01

Combined sewer overflow (CSO) from urban areas is recognized as a major pollutant source to the receiving waters during wet weather. This study attempts to categorize rainfall events and corresponding CSO behaviours to reveal the relationship between rainfall patterns and CSO behaviours in the Shingashi urban drainage areas of Tokyo, Japan where complete service by a combined sewer system (CSS) and CSO often takes place. In addition, outfalls based on their annual overflow behaviours were characterized for effective storm water management. All 117 rainfall events recorded in 2007 were simulated by a distributed model InfoWorks CS to obtain CSO behaviours. The rainfall events were classified based on two sets of parameters of rainfall pattern as well as CSO behaviours. Clustered rainfall and CSO groups were linked by similarity analysis. Results showed that both small and extreme rainfalls had strong correlations with the CSO behaviours, while moderate rainfall had a weak relationship. This indicates that important and negligible rainfalls from the viewpoint of CSO could be identified by rainfall patterns, while influences from the drainage area and network should be taken into account when estimating moderate rainfall-induced CSO. Additionally, outfalls were finally categorized into six groups indicating different levels of impact on the environment.

The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte Carlo technique for blending climatic distributions with probabilistic forecasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel; Kyriakidis, P.; Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Galu, Gideon

2011-01-01

Probabilistic forecasts are produced from a variety of outlets to help predict rainfall, and other meteorological events, for periods of 1 month or more. Such forecasts are expressed as probabilities of a rainfall event, e.g. being in the upper, middle, or lower third of the relevant distribution of rainfall in the region. The impact of these forecasts on the expectation for the event is not always clear or easily conveyed. This article proposes a technique based on Monte Carlo simulation for adjusting existing climatologic statistical parameters to match forecast information, resulting in new parameters defining the probability of events for the forecast interval. The resulting parameters are shown to approximate the forecasts with reasonable accuracy. To show the value of the technique as an application for seasonal rainfall, it is used with consensus forecast developed for the Greater Horn of Africa for the 2009 March-April-May season. An alternative, analytical approach is also proposed, and discussed in comparison to the first simulation-based technique.

Formulation Effects and the Off-target Transport of Pyrethroid Insecticides from Urban Hard Surfaces

PubMed Central

Jorgenson, Brant C.; Young, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

Controlled rainfall experiments utilizing drop forming rainfall simulators were conducted to study various factors contributing to off-target transport of off-the-shelf formulated pyrethroid insecticides from concrete surfaces. Factors evaluated included active ingredient, product formulation, time between application and rainfall (set time), and rainfall intensity. As much as 60% and as little as 0.8% of pyrethroid applied could be recovered in surface runoff depending primarily on product formulation, and to a lesser extent on product set time. Resulting wash-off profiles during one-hour storm simulations could be categorized based on formulation, with formulations utilizing emulsifying surfactants rather than organic solvents resulting in unique wash-off profiles with overall higher wash-off efficiency. These higher wash-off efficiency profiles were qualitatively replicated by applying formulation-free neat pyrethroid in the presence of independently applied linear alkyl benzene sulfonate (LAS) surfactant, suggesting that the surfactant component of some formulated products may be influential in pyrethroid wash-off from urban hard surfaces. PMID:20524665

Spatial variability of summer Florida precipitation and its impact on microwave radiometer rainfall-measurement systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, B. J.; Austin, G. L.

1993-01-01

Three-dimensional radar data for three summer Florida storms are used as input to a microwave radiative transfer model. The model simulates microwave brightness observations by a 19-GHz, nadir-pointing, satellite-borne microwave radiometer. The statistical distribution of rainfall rates for the storms studied, and therefore the optimal conversion between microwave brightness temperatures and rainfall rates, was found to be highly sensitive to the spatial resolution at which observations were made. The optimum relation between the two quantities was less sensitive to the details of the vertical profile of precipitation. Rainfall retrievals were made for a range of microwave sensor footprint sizes. From these simulations, spatial sampling-error estimates were made for microwave radiometers over a range of field-of-view sizes. The necessity of matching the spatial resolution of ground truth to radiometer footprint size is emphasized. A strategy for the combined use of raingages, ground-based radar, microwave, and visible-infrared (VIS-IR) satellite sensors is discussed.

Conceptual modelling of E. coli in urban stormwater drains, creeks and rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jovanovic, Dusan; Hathaway, Jon; Coleman, Rhys; Deletic, Ana; McCarthy, David T.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of faecal microorganism levels in water systems, such as stormwater drains, creeks and rivers, is needed for appropriate assessment of impacts on receiving water bodies and the risks to human health. The underlying hypothesis for this work is that a single conceptual model (the MicroOrganism Prediction in Urban Stormwater model - i.e. MOPUS) can adequately simulate microbial dynamics over a variety of water systems and wide range of scales; something which has not been previously tested. Additionally, the application of radar precipitation data for improvement of the model performance at these scales via more accurate areal averaged rainfall intensities was tested. Six comprehensive Escherichia coli (E. coli) datasets collected from five catchments in south-eastern Australia and one catchment in Raleigh, USA, were used to calibrate the model. The MOPUS rainfall-runoff model performed well at all scales (Nash-Sutcliffe E for instantaneous flow rates between 0.70 and 0.93). Sensitivity analysis showed that wet weather urban stormwater flows can be modelled with only three of the five rainfall runoff model parameters: routing coefficient (K), effective imperviousness (IMP) and time of concentration (TOC). The model's performance for representing instantaneous E. coli fluctuations ranged from 0.17 to 0.45 in catchments drained via pipe or open creek, and was the highest for a large riverine catchment (0.64); performing similarly, if not better, than other microbial models in literature. The model could also capture the variability in event mean concentrations (E = 0.17-0.57) and event loads (E = 0.32-0.97) at all scales. Application of weather radar-derived rainfall inputs caused lower overall performance compared to using gauged rainfall inputs in representing both flow and E. coli levels in urban drain catchments, with the performance improving with increasing catchment size and being comparable to the models that use gauged rainfall inputs at the large riverine catchment. These results demonstrate the potential of the MOPUS model and its ability to be applied to a wide range of catchment scales, including large riverine systems.

The use of simulated rainfall to study the discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff pollution loads.

PubMed

Qinqin, Li; Qiao, Chen; Jiancai, Deng; Weiping, Hu

2015-01-01

An understanding of the characteristics of pollutants on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollution loads and to design methods to minimize the impacts of pollutants on the environment. In this study, simulated rainfall equipment was constructed to investigate the pollutant discharge process and the influence factors of urban surface runoff (USR). The results indicated that concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) appeared to be higher in the early period and then decreased gradually with rainfall duration until finally stabilized. The capacity and particle size of surface dust, rainfall intensity and urban surface slopes affected runoff pollution loads to a variable extent. The loads of TP, TN and COD showed a positive relationship with the surface dust capacity, whereas the maximum TSS load appeared when the surface dust was 0.0317 g·cm⁻². Smaller particle sizes (<0.125 mm) of surface dust generated high TN, TP and COD loads. Increases in rainfall intensity and surface slope enhanced the pollution carrying capacity of runoff, leading to higher pollution loads. Knowledge of the influence factors could assist in the management of USR pollution loads.

The Diurnal Cycle in TOGA-COARE: Regional Scale Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Jia, Y.

1999-01-01

The diurnal variation of precipitation processes over the tropics is a well-known phenomenon and has been studied using surface rainfall data, radar reflectivity data, and satellite-derived cloudiness and precipitation. Recently, analyzed observations from Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) in the tropical western Pacific ocean to study the relevant mechanisms producing diurnal variation of precipitation. They found that the diurnal Sea surface temperature (SST) cycle is important for afternoon showers in the undisturbed periods and diurnal radiative processes for nocturnal rainfall. Cloud resolving models (CRMS) have been used to determine the mechanisms associated with diurnal variation of precipitating processes. CRMs allow explicit cloud-radiation and air-sea interactive processes. However, CRMs can be only used for idealized simulations (i.e., no feedback between clouds and their embedded large-scale environments; cyclic lateral boundary conditions and idealized initial conditions). In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (covers the TOGA COARE LSA/IFA with a 54 km grid and can nest down to 18, 6 and possibly even 2 km) will be adopted for studying the diurnal variations of rainfall. We will examine precipitation processes over open ocean and over land. We will also perform sensitivity tests to determine how the radiative forcing and diurnal SST cycle affects the development of convection.

Uncertainties on the definition of critical rainfall patterns for debris-flows triggering. Results from the Rebaixader monitoring site (Central Pyrenees)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hürlimann, Marcel; Abancó, Clàudia; Moya, Jose; Berenguer, Marc

2015-04-01

Empirical rainfall thresholds are a widespread technique in debris-flow hazard assessment and can be established by statistical analysis of historic data. Typically, data from one or several rain gauges located nearby the affected catchment is used to define the triggering conditions. However, this procedure has been demonstrated not to be accurate enough due to the spatial variability of convective rainstorms. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, 28 torrential flows (debris flows and debris floods) have occurred and rainfall data of 25 of them are available with a 5-minutes frequency of recording ("event rainfalls"). Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger events ("no event rainfalls) were also collected and analysed. The goal of this work was threefold: a) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential events and others that did not; b) define and test Intensity-Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment; c) estimate the uncertainty derived from the use of rain gauges located outside the catchment based on the spatial correlation depicted by radar rainfall maps. The results of the statistical analysis showed that the parameters that more distinguish between the two populations of rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total precipitation. On the other side, the storm duration and the antecedent rainfall are not significantly different between "event rainfalls" and "no event rainfalls". Four different ID rainfall thresholds were derived based on the dataset of the first 5 years and tested using the 2014 dataset. The results of the test indicated that the threshold corresponding to the 90% percentile showed the best performance. Weather radar data was used to analyse the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that rain gauges outside the catchment may be considered useful or not to describe the rainfall depending on the type of rainfall. For widespread rainfalls, further rain gauges can give a reliable measurement, because the spatial correlation decreases slowly with the distance between the rain gauge and the debris-flow initiation area. Contrarily, local storm cells show higher space-time variability and, therefore, representative rainfall measurements are obtained only by the closest rain gauges. In conclusion, the definition of rainfall thresholds is a delicate task. When the rainfall records are coming from gauges that are outside the catchment under consideration, the data should be carefully analysed and crosschecked with radar data (especially for small convective cells).

Numerical simulation diagnostics of a flash flood event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samman, Ahmad

On 26 January 2011, a severe storm hit the city of Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The storm resulted in heavy rainfall, which produced a flash flood in a short period of time. This event caused at least eleven fatalities and more than 114 injuries. Unfortunately, the observed rainfall data are limited to the weather station at King Abdul Aziz International airport, which is north of the city, while the most extreme precipitation occurred over the southern part of the city. This observation was useful to compare simulation result even though it does not reflect the severity of the event. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed at Colorado State University was used to study this storm event. RAMS simulations indicted that a quasi-stationary Mesoscale convective system developed over the city of Jeddah and lasted for several hours. It was the source of the huge amount of rainfall. The model computed a total rainfall of more than 110 mm in the southern part of the city, where the flash flood occurred. This precipitation estimation was confirmed by the actual observation of the weather radar. While the annual rainfall in Jeddah during the winter varies from 50 to 100 mm, the amount of the rainfall resulting from this storm event exceeded the climatological total annual rainfall. The simulation of this event showed that warm sea surface temperature, combined with high humidity in the lower atmosphere and a large amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE) provided a favorable environment for convection. It also showed the presence of a cyclonic system over the north and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea, and a subtropical anti-cyclone over Northeastern Africa that contributed to cold air advection bringing cold air to the Jeddah area. In addition, an anti-cyclone (blocking) centered over east and southeastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea produced a low level jet over the southern part of the Red Sea, which transported large water vapor amounts over Jeddah. The simulation results showed that the main driver behind the storm was the interaction between these systems over the city of Jeddah (an urban heat island) that produced strong low-level convergence. Several sensitivity experiments were carried out showed that other variables could have contributed to storm severity as well. Those sensitivity experiments included several simulations in which the following variables were changed: physiographic properties were altered by removing the water surfaces, removing the urban heat island environment from the model, and changing the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei. The results of these sensitivity experiments showed that these properties have significant effects on the storm formation and severity.

Simulating the influence of snow surface processes on soil moisture dynamics and streamflow generation in an alpine catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wever, Nander; Comola, Francesco; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

2017-08-01

The assessment of flood risks in alpine, snow-covered catchments requires an understanding of the linkage between the snow cover, soil and discharge in the stream network. Here, we apply the comprehensive, distributed model Alpine3D to investigate the role of soil moisture in the predisposition of the Dischma catchment in Switzerland to high flows from rainfall and snowmelt. The recently updated soil module of the physics-based multilayer snow cover model SNOWPACK, which solves the surface energy and mass balance in Alpine3D, is verified against soil moisture measurements at seven sites and various depths inside and in close proximity to the Dischma catchment. Measurements and simulations in such terrain are difficult and consequently, soil moisture was simulated with varying degrees of success. Differences between simulated and measured soil moisture mainly arise from an overestimation of soil freezing and an absence of a groundwater description in the Alpine3D model. Both were found to have an influence in the soil moisture measurements. Using the Alpine3D simulation as the surface scheme for a spatially explicit hydrologic response model using a travel time distribution approach for interflow and baseflow, streamflow simulations were performed for the discharge from the catchment. The streamflow simulations provided a closer agreement with observed streamflow when driving the hydrologic response model with soil water fluxes at 30 cm depth in the Alpine3D model. Performance decreased when using the 2 cm soil water flux, thereby mostly ignoring soil processes. This illustrates that the role of soil moisture is important to take into account when understanding the relationship between both snowpack runoff and rainfall and catchment discharge in high alpine terrain. However, using the soil water flux at 60 cm depth to drive the hydrologic response model also decreased its performance, indicating that an optimal soil depth to include in surface simulations exists and that the runoff dynamics are controlled by only a shallow soil layer. Runoff coefficients (i.e. ratio of rainfall over discharge) based on measurements for high rainfall and snowmelt events were found to be dependent on the simulated initial soil moisture state at the onset of an event, further illustrating the important role of soil moisture for the hydrological processes in the catchment. The runoff coefficients using simulated discharge were found to reproduce this dependency, which shows that the Alpine3D model framework can be successfully applied to assess the predisposition of the catchment to flood risks from both snowmelt and rainfall events.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both temporally and spatially. None of the stations have stable monthly rainfall regimes (mean PCI of less than 10). Stations with the highest mean rainfall were found to have a lower interannual variability. The rainfall stations showed low spatial correlations for annual, monthly as well as seasonal timescales indicating that the data may not be suitable for spatial interpolation. However, some structure (i.e. lower correlation with distance) could be observed when aggregating the data at 50 mile intervals. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were dominated by negative trends. The spatial distribution of the trends can be described as heterogeneous, although most of the stations in the southern region have negative trends. At the monthly timescale, 37 of the stations show a negative trend with four of the stations, all in the south, showing significant negative trends. On the other hand, only 5 stations show positive trends with only one significant trend in the south. Keywords: Malawi, rainfall trends, spatial variation

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynn, Barry H.; Stauffer, David R.; Wetzel, Peter J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Perlin, Natal; Baker, R. David; Munoz, Ricardo; Boone, Aaron; Jia, Yiqin

1999-01-01

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to describe and deal with this top boundary condition definition. All three LSMs discretise the spatial derivative in the Richards equation (∂/∂z) using central finite differences, which is a 2nd order method, that according to Godunov's theorem is non-monotone. It is prone to producing non-physical oscillations in the solution. We performed a mesh and timestep dependence study for hypothetical soil columns and showed the presence of the oscillations in Jules and SWAP solutions. We also investigated the rainfall/runoff partition and redistribution in case of intense rainfall using these three models.

Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST.

PubMed

Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

2015-04-01

To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

Analysis of anthropogenic contributions to record high Australian summer rainfall (2010-2012) using CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Karoly, David

2013-04-01

Changes in extreme climate events pose significant challenges for both human and natural systems. Some climate extremes are likely to become "more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century" (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) due to anthropogenic climate change. Particularly in Australia, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a relationship to the relative frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes. In this study, we investigate the record high two-summer rainfall observed in Australia (2010-2011 and 2011-2012). This record rainfall occurred in association with a two year extended La Niña event and resulted in severe and extensive flooding. We examine simulated changes in seasonal-scale rainfall extremes in the Australian region in a suite of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In particular, we utilise the novel CMIP5 detection and attribution historical experiments with various forcings (natural forcings only and greenhouse gas forcings only) to examine the impact of various anthropogenic forcings on seasonal-scale extreme rainfall across Australia. Using these standard detection and attribution experiments over the period of 1850 to 2005, we examine La Niña contributions to the 2-season record rainfall, as well as the longer-term climate change contribution to rainfall extremes. Was there an anthropogenic influence in the record high Australian summer rainfall over 2010 to 2012, and if so, how much influence? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., 996 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.

Assessing Australian Rainfall Projections in Two Model Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taschetto, A.; Haarsma, R. D.; Sen Gupta, A.

2016-02-01

Australian climate is projected to change with increases in greenhouse gases. The IPCC reports an increase in extreme daily rainfall across the country. At the same time, mean rainfall over southeast Australia is projected to reduce during austral winter, but to increase during austral summer, mainly associated with changes in the surrounding oceans. Climate models agree better on the future reduction of average rainfall over the southern regions of Australia compared to the increase in extreme rainfall events. One of the reasons for this disagreement may be related to climate model limitations in simulating the observed mechanisms associated with the mid-latitude weather systems, in particular due to coarse model resolutions. In this study we investigate how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affect Australian mean and extreme rainfall under global warming, using a suite of numerical experiments at two model resolutions: about 126km (T159) and 25km (T799). The numerical experiments are performed with the earth system model EC-EARTH. Two 6-member ensembles are produced for the present day conditions and a future scenario. The present day ensemble is forced with the observed daily SST from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center from 2002 to 2006. The future scenario simulation is integrated from 2094 to 2098 using the present day SST field added onto the future SST change created from a 17-member ensemble based on the RCP4.5 scenario. Preliminary results show an increase in extreme rainfall events over Tasmania associated with enhanced convection driven by the Tasman Sea warming. We will further discuss how the projected changes in SST will impact the southern mid-latitude weather systems that ultimately affect Australian rainfall.

Study on Hydrological Functions of Litter Layers in North China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang; Niu, Jianzhi; Xie, Baoyuan

2013-01-01

Canopy interception, throughfall, stemflow, and runoff have received considerable attention during the study of water balance and hydrological processes in forested ecosystems. Past research has either neglected or underestimated the role of hydrological functions of litter layers, although some studies have considered the impact of various characteristics of rainfall and litter on litter interception. Based on both simulated rainfall and litter conditions in North China, the effect of litter mass, rainfall intensity and litter type on the maximum water storage capacity of litter (S) and litter interception storage capacity (C) were investigated under five simulated rainfall intensities and four litter masses for two litter types. The results indicated: 1) the S values increased linearly with litter mass, and the S values of broadleaf litter were on average 2.65 times larger than the S values of needle leaf litter; 2) rainfall intensity rather than litter mass determined the maximum interception storage capacity (Cmax); Cmax increased linearly with increasing rainfall intensity; by contrast, the minimum interception storage capacity (Cmin) showed a linear relationship with litter mass, but a poor correlation with rainfall intensity; 3) litter type impacted Cmax and Cmin; the values of Cmax and Cmin for broadleaf litter were larger than those of needle leaf litter, which indicated that broadleaf litter could intercepte and store more water than needle leaf litter; 4) a gap existed between Cmax and Cmin, indicating that litter played a significant role by allowing rainwater to infiltrate or to produce runoff rather than intercepting it and allowing it to evaporate after the rainfall event; 5) Cmin was always less than S at the same litter mass, which should be considered in future interception predictions. Vegetation and precipitation characteristics played important roles in hydrological characteristics. PMID:23936188

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher peak discharge.

Methodology for application of field rainfall simulator to revise c-factor database for conditions of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, Martin; Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Kavka, Petr; Davidová, Tereza; Brant, Václav; Kroulík, Milan; Mistr, Martin; Novotný, Ivan

2016-04-01

The presentation will introduce a methodology of determination of crop and cover management factor (C-faktor) for the universal soil loss equation (USLE) using field rainfall simulator. The aim of the project is to determine the C-factor value for the different phenophases of the main crops of the central-european region, while also taking into account the different agrotechnical methods. By using the field rainfall simulator, it is possible to perform the measurements in specific phenophases, which is otherwise difficult to execute due to the variability and fortuity of the natural rainfall. Due to the number of measurements needed, two identical simulators will be used, operated by two independent teams, with coordinated methodology. The methodology will mainly specify the length of simulation, the rainfall intensity, and the sampling technique. The presentation includes a more detailed account of the methods selected. Due to the wide range of variable crops and soils, it is not possible to execute the measurements for all possible combinations. We therefore decided to perform the measurements for previously selected combinations of soils,crops and agrotechnologies that are the most common in the Czech Republic. During the experiments, the volume of the surface runoff and amount of sediment will be measured in their temporal distribution, as well as several other important parameters. The key values of the 3D matrix of the combinations of the crop, agrotechnique and soil will be determined experimentally. The remaining values will be determined by interpolation or by a model analogy. There are several methods used for C-factor calculation from measured experimental data. Some of these are not suitable to be used considering the type of data gathered. The presentation will discuss the benefits and drawbacks of these methods, as well as the final design of the method used. The problems concerning the selection of a relevant measurement method as well as the final method of simulation and C-factor determination for the gathered data will be discussed in more detail. The presentation was supported by research projects QJ1530181 and SGS14/180/OHK1/3T/11.

Influence of rainfall data scarcity on non-point source pollution prediction: Implications for physically based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Xu, Jiajia; Wang, Guobo; Liu, Hongbin; Zhai, Limei; Li, Shuang; Sun, Cheng; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-07-01

Hydrological and non-point source pollution (H/NPS) predictions in ungagged basins have become the key problem for watershed studies, especially for those large-scale catchments. However, few studies have explored the comprehensive impacts of rainfall data scarcity on H/NPS predictions. This study focused on: 1) the effects of rainfall spatial scarcity (by removing 11%-67% of stations based on their locations) on the H/NPS results; and 2) the impacts of rainfall temporal scarcity (10%-60% data scarcity in time series); and 3) the development of a new evaluation method that incorporates information entropy. A case study was undertaken using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a typical watershed in China. The results of this study highlighted the importance of critical-site rainfall stations that often showed greater influences and cross-tributary impacts on the H/NPS simulations. Higher missing rates above a certain threshold as well as missing locations during the wet periods resulted in poorer simulation results. Compared to traditional indicators, information entropy could serve as a good substitute because it reflects the distribution of spatial variability and the development of temporal heterogeneity. This paper reports important implications for the application of Distributed Hydrological Models and Semi-distributed Hydrological Models, as well as for the optimal design of rainfall gauges among large basins.

High resolution land surface response of inland moving Indian monsoon depressions over Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajesh, P. V.; Pattnaik, S.

2016-05-01

During Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season, nearly about half of the monsoonal rainfall is brought inland by the low pressure systems called as Monsoon Depressions (MDs). These systems bear large amount of rainfall and frequently give copious amount of rainfall over land regions, therefore accurate forecast of these synoptic scale systems at short time scale can help in disaster management, flood relief, food safety. The goal of this study is to investigate, whether an accurate moisture-rainfall feedback from land surface can improve the prediction of inland moving MDs. High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) is used to generate improved land state .i.e. soil moisture and soil temperature profiles by means of NOAH-MP land-surface model. Validation of the model simulated basic atmospheric parameters at surface layer and troposphere reveals that the incursion of high resolution land state yields least Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) with a higher correlation coefficient and facilitates accurate depiction of MDs. Rainfall verification shows that HRLDAS simulations are spatially and quantitatively in more agreement with the observations and the improved surface characteristics could result in the realistic reproduction of the storm spatial structure, movement as well as intensity. These results signify the necessity of investigating more into the land surface-rainfall feedbacks through modifications in moisture flux convergence within the storm.

Canopy storage capacity of xerophytic shrubs in Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xin-ping; Zhang, Ya-feng; Hu, Rui; Pan, Yan-xia; Berndtsson, Ronny

2012-08-01

SummaryThe capacity of shrub canopy water storage is a key factor in controlling the rainfall interception. Thus, it affects a variety of hydrological processes in water-limited arid desert ecosystems. Vast areas of revegetated desert ecosystems in Northwestern China are occupied by shrub and dwarf shrub communities. Yet, data are still scarce regarding their rainwater storage capacity. In this study, simulated rainfall tests were conducted in controlled conditions for three dominant xerophytic shrub types in the arid Tengger Desert. Eight rainfall intensities varying from 1.15 to 11.53 mm h-1 were used to determine the canopy water storage capacity. The simulated rainfall intensities were selected according to the long-term rainfall records in the study area. The results indicate that canopy storage capacity (expressed in water storage per leaf area, canopy projection area, biomass, and volume of shrub respectively) increased exponentially with increase in rainfall intensity for the selected shrubs. Linear relationships were found between canopy storage capacity and leaf area (LA) or leaf area index (LAI), although there was a striking difference in correlation between storage capacity and LA or LAI of Artemisia ordosica compared to Caragana korshinskii and Hedysarum scoparium. This is a result of differences in biometric characteristics, especially canopy morphology between the shrub species. Pearson correlation coefficient indicated that LA and dry biomass are better predictors as compared to canopy projection area and volume of samples for precise estimation of canopy water storage capacity. In terms of unit leaf area, mean storage capacity was 0.39 mm (range of 0.24-0.53 mm), 0.43 mm (range of 0.28-0.60 mm), and 0.61 mm (range of 0.29-0.89 mm) for C. korshinskii, H. scoparium, and A. ordosica, respectively. Correspondingly, divided per unit dry biomass, mean storage capacity was 0.51 g g-1 (range of 0.30-0.70 g g-1), 0.41 g g-1 (range of 0.26-0.57 g g-1), and 0.73 g g-1 (range of 0.38-1.05 g g-1) for C. korshinskii, H. scoparium, and A. ordosica, respectively, when the rainfall intensities ranged from 1.15, 2.31, 3.46, 4.61, 6.92, 9.23 to 11.53 mm h-1. The needle-leaved species A. ordosica had a higher canopy water storage capacity than the ovate-leaved species C. korshinskii and H. scoparium at the same magnitude of rainfall intensity, except for C. korshinskii when it was expressed in unit of canopy projection area. Consequently, A. ordosica will generate higher interception losses as compared to C. korshinskii and H. scoparium. This is especially the case as it often forms dense dwarf shrub communities despite its small size.

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE PAGES

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2016-05-10

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Effects of natural and simulated rainfall on indicators of ensilability and nutritive value for wilting alfalfa forages sampled before preservation as silage.

PubMed

Coblentz, W K; Muck, R E

2012-11-01

The frustrations of forage producers attempting to conserve high-quality alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) silage during periods of unstable or inclement weather are widely known. Our objectives for this series of studies were to (1) assess indicators of ensilability, such as pH, buffering capacity, water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC), and starch for wilting alfalfa forages receiving no rainfall or damaged by simulated or natural rainfall events; (2) use these data as inputs to calculate the threshold moisture concentration that would prohibit a clostridially dominated fermentation; and (3) further evaluate the effects of rain damage or no rain damage on measures of forage nutritive value. Rainfall events were applied to wilting forages by both simulated and natural methods over multiple studies distributed across 4 independent forage harvests. Generally, simulated rainfall was applied to alfalfa under controlled conditions in which forages were relatively wet at the time of application, and subsequently were dried to final moisture endpoints under near ideal conditions within a constant temperature/humidity environmental chamber, thereby limiting postwetting wilting time to ≤21 h. As a result, indicators of ensilability, as well as measures of nutritive value, changed only marginally as a result of treatment. Consistently, reductions in concentrations of WSC and starch occurred, but changes in WSC were relatively modest, and postwetting concentrations of WSC may have been buoyed by hydrolysis of starch. When forages were subjected to natural rainfall events followed by prolonged exposure under field conditions, indicators of ensilability were much less desirable. In one study in which alfalfa received 49.3mm of natural rainfall over a prolonged (8-d) field-exposure period, fresh pH increased from 6.48 to 7.43 within all forages exposed to these extended, moist wilting conditions. Furthermore, sharp reductions were observed in buffering capacity (410 vs. 337 meq/kg of DM), WSC (6.13 vs. 2.90%), starch (2.28 vs. 0.45%), and clostridially dominated fermentation (62.7 vs. 59.4%). Based on these experiments, the potential for good fermentation is affected only minimally by single rainfall events applied to relatively wet forages, provided these events are followed by rapid dehydration; however, attaining acceptable silage fermentations with forages subjected to prolonged exposure under poor drying conditions is likely to be far more problematic. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic evaluation of distributed physically based model at the REW scale (THREW) using rainfall-runoff event analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, F.; Sivapalan, M.; Li, H.; Hu, H.

2007-12-01

The importance of diagnostic analysis of hydrological models is increasingly recognized by the scientific community (M. Sivapalan, et al., 2003; H. V. Gupta, et al., 2007). Model diagnosis refers to model structures and parameters being identified not only by statistical comparison of system state variables and outputs but also by process understanding in a specific watershed. Process understanding can be gained by the analysis of observational data and model results at the specific watershed as well as through regionalization. Although remote sensing technology can provide valuable data about the inputs, state variables, and outputs of the hydrological system, observational rainfall-runoff data still constitute the most accurate, reliable, direct, and thus a basic component of hydrology related database. One critical question in model diagnostic analysis is, therefore, what signature characteristic can we extract from rainfall and runoff data. To this date only a few studies have focused on this question, such as Merz et al. (2006) and Lana-Renault et al. (2007), still none of these studies related event analysis with model diagnosis in an explicit, rigorous, and systematic manner. Our work focuses on the identification of the dominant runoff generation mechanisms from event analysis of rainfall-runoff data, including correlation analysis and analysis of timing pattern. The correlation analysis involves the identification of the complex relationship among rainfall depth, intensity, runoff coefficient, and antecedent conditions, and the timing pattern analysis aims to identify the clustering pattern of runoff events in relation to the patterns of rainfall events. Our diagnostic analysis illustrates the changing pattern of runoff generation mechanisms in the DMIP2 test watersheds located in Oklahoma region, which is also well recognized by numerical simulations based on TsingHua Representative Elementary Watershed (THREW) model. The result suggests the usefulness of rainfall-runoff event analysis for model development as well as model diagnostics.